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Market Talk- Crypto ready for new all time highs soon!? Sol to 400?
Recorded: Sept. 12, 2025 Duration: 1:44:40Space Recording
Short Summary
The crypto market is witnessing a significant resurgence, with Bitcoin and Ethereum showing promising growth as they align with the bullish trends in traditional equities. Major investments in Solana and the upcoming FOMC meeting are expected to further enhance market dynamics, signaling a potential altcoin season.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. so
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ん I I'm going to go to the sky!
This mission is the same generation of men.
The future of the place of the sea.
The future of the nation will be the same. Oh, feel me again again. Hey, we'll make it now. Thank you. I don't know. guys what is going on happy friday happy friday what an exciting time in the crypto markets
crypto is finally catching up to the outperformance that the equity markets have had
over the last weeks and talking about equ equities, man, what a recovery
from Robinhood stock. Up 15% this week and back into price discovery. I think Robinhood stock
actually made a new all-time high earlier in the week at about 120. It's probably the stock that
really the only stock next to Coinbase stock that I've been yapping about since I started here at BB in December of 22.
And man, trading over 100 bill market cap.
It is now a blue chip mid cap stock.
Absolute insanity.
What's occurred in the stock market over the last few years.
But now it's time
for crypto to catch up we see solana on the verge of price discovery ladies and gentlemen
days before the fomc meeting occurs where they're expected to cut by 25 basis points if we look at what happened to Solana after that cut, things went absolutely insane.
And things are currently going insane on Solana.
We take a look at PumpFunToken.
We've been yapping about this one for about three weeks on the show, up over 100% since we yapped about it here.
And I think it's about 15% from going into price discovery.
And it's one of the only tokens in this entire market that actually has revenue generating,
team buybacks, team actually supporting their own ecosystem.
So I'm excited for how that trade is going to play out, especially the way soul eth and soul btc are shaping up to be ladies and gentlemen soul eth and more importantly
soul btc are about to make fresh weekly highs and soul btc is about to reclaim its february high of
this year which broke and then led to then led to that mini bear market.
Rather, it was a bear market, but it just lasted a bit earlier. It wasn't as late and dragged out
as previous bear markets were. A decline from $300 all the way to $90 is by definition a bear market same with bitcoin drawing down almost 40 percent
from uh what was it donnie like 111 or something like that all the way down to 74k 73k that by
definition is also a bear market but nonetheless guys nonetheless we also have ETH now above its May 2021 high.
That one probably goes back to range highs as well.
But with Solana, you now have Mike Novogratz and Kyle Samani closing in on their dat raises of 10 plus billion, where they're going to shove into Solana.
They're basically going to shove in more than 10% of Sol's market cap right into
the chart. And we all know that something could be valued at like 50 bill, but it doesn't necessarily
mean that there's 50 bill in liquidity in that market. So a 10% shove into a chart, say it's 100 mil and someone shoves in 10 mil, the price is probably
going to double. Just look at what happened with Ethereum when Tom Lee started to shove
back in early June when I put out that post on my personal profile on ETH BTC. ETH BTC
essentially pulled off a double and ETH went to 5k.
So things are about to get absolutely nutty. And I can just feel it.
I can just feel it in my gut, guys, that there's going to be a billion dollar runner, multiple billion dollar runners on Solana.
And my risk on indicator for being on chain is PumpFun.
If you want to look at the casino,
if you want to look at the health of the casino,
you look at PumpFun token,
there will not be a billion-dollar runner on Solana
until PumpToken is in price discovery.
That is the health of the entire ecosystem.
And the structure on Solana looks so much healthier now
than it did around this time last year.
Around this time last year, Sol was lethargic, but on-chain was fruitful.
And now you have Solana painting a beautiful bull market structure since the April lows with clean higher lows, with clean higher highs.
And on-chain is actually starting to rip and that is exactly
the structure that you want to see you want to see the native l1 token price mark up slowly slowly
and then all at once the price discovery and then you have on chain follow suit and we're now
starting to see actual liquidity come back into these charts after
the insane destruction that occurred with Trump and Melania token. We have the S&P and the QQQs
and the IWN putting in the largest weekly close that they have ever done in history. And that's honestly incredible. If we just take a look back at the
last 20 plus years of market history in the equity markets, Q3 isn't usually good. But for
whatever reason, it's insanely bullish now. And all it takes is just circling back to that speech
that Scott Bessette said in February, saying that the market needs some time to heal and reset.
But just wait six to nine months and you'll start to see the market pricing in a Trump economy.
Now, ladies and gentlemen, it doesn't really take that much to check out how the Trump economy is doing.
Just take a look at how some of these names are looking right now.
You had NVIDIA down like 50, 55 percent in the April lows, and now it's at all-time highs.
Same thing with many other names, ladies and gents.
You also have Bitcoin miners going absolutely buku, like IRON.
IRON Stockman.
I still think that one's probably going to three digits, to be honest.
And Mike Alfred's going to go down as a legend, to be frank.
I forgot to message Mike, by the way, guys.
I've had him on these Friday shows, but I think that's probably for next week after FOMC,
when a bunch of this sideline capital and money markets and also in stable coins
top into uh top into these assets and the dormant liquidity that's just sitting on solana is going
to be unreal after uh after these rate cuts so many stables have been printed over the last
couple of weeks this entire quarter and it is just ready to shove into a lot of these names but uh look we're gonna go
ahead and get started now if you guys want to come up and talk shop usually on Fridays I always
encourage people in the audience to come up and talk shop I just ask one thing and um I'd encourage
you guys to strike up a conversation rather than just like ask questions um asking questions is
really monotonous and also really boring to be frank it's like a late night talk show which
i i try not to make this stream seem like uh like a jay leno show where it's just question after
question after question it's boring doesn't provide value it's not entertaining but if you guys want to come up and speak talk your book
specifically bring something out that perhaps we're not yapping about that I'd encourage you
all to come on up but I'm here joined by Donnie and Prometheus um I think Josh should be coming
on I I uh have to message him I sent him the invite either way.
But before we officially get started, guys, if you guys can go on ahead and show some love to the space, best way to do that is by clicking the spaces tab.
Once you guys do that, right above our profile pictures, you'll see a nice link that says x.com slash i slash spaces.
Go on ahead and hit up that like button. Smash that repost that retweet button guys it is friday welcome to the weekly wrap up we're
gonna go ahead and yap uh this is going to be a bit of a shorter space i'm quite frankly i don't
even know if we're gonna last uh even 45. I really want to save most of the discussion
for after the FOMC or the day of, as I do think that's when things are truly, truly going to ramp
up. But Sol BTC, fresh highs, Sol ETH, fresh highs, Solana, very close to price discovery exactly as predicted weeks and weeks ago back in august
when there was this one chart talking about um donnie i'm sure you remember but there was this
chart going around about solana dex activity the amount of users on soul and i'm like all right bro
people are talking bad about soul and they're showing that there's no on-chain activity.
It's probably the bottom, because I tell you what,
they're not going to go on mainnet ETH.
They're just not.
ETH just does not have the kind of motion that Sol does.
Show me anything on ETH that has ran to billions
next to other pairs that have ran to billions in less than two months.
Hint, you can't.
You had AI16Z running to billions.
You had Zerebro running to near a billion.
You had GOAT running to billions.
FWOG touched 800 mil.
Killguy ran to 700 mil.
You had multiple tickers hitting near a bill or over a bill,
or even billions like AI16Z did and a few other names
that I'm probably forgetting all in the span of a couple of weeks. Every single week on Solana,
there was a nine-figure-plus runner, and it started with GOAT. You had GOAT come out immediately
straight to like one bill in less than a month. Then you zerebro then you had ai16z and then you had arc
and the list goes on and on and on and on there is no other chain that has as much motion as uh
as there has been on soul pump has marked up like two and a half x off of the bottom and it is still contrarian for whatever reason so what does that say for soul btc what
does that say for soul eth what does that say for soul usd what does that mean for soul on chain
it probably means that you could have the same amount of activity that we saw in q4 and it would
still be contrarian you have mike novogratz and kyle samani raising billions and billions
to top into spot soul so that that's what the that's where they're that's where the momentum
is and that's really what i want to discuss on today's show i really don't want to yap about
the what ifs what if this token marks up what if eth goes to 8 000 what does that mean for this like no
i want today's show to be about what's happening right now man and um what's about to happen is
this rate cut and iwm is at macro range highs before a rate cut um and that's with uh what what's that term, Donnie, that you and Luke like to use?
The ISM going above 50 or something like that?
Is that it?
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
That just essentially means that the business cycle is picking up
and we're entering an expansionary phase for businesses.
They're just going to start doing much better.
Or it's actually a lagging indicator.
So it's like when that is going up,
then obviously liquidity is picked up.
Credit conditions are much easier.
Cost of capital is lower and things like that.
So businesses can start doing better.
So that's the thing is if you've got a rising ISM
as the Fed is going to incrementally cut into that over 2026,
because Trump wants rates down 3%.
That's just as bullish as it gets.
Like, honestly, with the new king dollar as well.
So the whole world has, you know, easier financial...
Hey, did Donnie cut off for you guys?
Yeah, he cut off. you guys Yeah, he cut off
Oh man, he was about a cook to
Where they cut off so check this out, dude
I actually got a text message for one of the macro bears that I know and he cut off your signal
So on my other phone, I'm about a type
I'm about a type in the number for Homeland Security and report domestic terrorism.
Like, anyone that is remotely bearish should be reported to Homeland Security.
Just look at what Scott Besant did.
And this was a real report.
Someone told Scott Besant to be mindful of his GDP and growth projections.
And he said, shut the F up.
I'm about to punch you in your face.
That is a real thing.
But continue, Donnie.
You were yapping about ISM and stuff like that.
I was just saying you're about to have a business cycle
pick up in the US and globally while the Fed,
the Fed is essentially
the pillar of the global financial system. They're jumping in on board with rate cuts. Trump wants
rates down 3%. He's trying to rearrange the Fed board. And you have the dollar nuking for the
whole global financial system to basically have easier conditions. So that is literally like,
there's nothing more you can add to the bullish setup than that.
Like that's as good as it gets.
So, yeah, I don't know.
It's seeing these top callers and all this kind of stuff is just weird to me.
But I guess they don't look at any of this stuff.
Donnie, man.
So what does that mean for things like the IWM?
And we saw what happened last year with the IWM.
We were yapping about it on the first base that we did.
I'm pretty sure it was the day before the election, or I think even the day of.
I'm pretty sure it's either one of the two.
And the IWM stalled out at macro range highs i know there was that backdrop backdrop on liquidity that i think
you mentioned on a december space where like uh global liquidity started to pull back a bit and
you said there might actually be like a hefty correction and there's a possibility that we
might have to wait a few months before continuing uh which was insane by the way man people forget
that on these shows like not only do we speak about like broader term outlooks,
which everybody knows that crypto is not going to go anywhere
and it's going to be up until the right decade after decade.
But to talk about constant narratives, shifting narratives,
rotationary narratives, and also some of these lower timeframe moves,
it's actually a skill.
It is actually a skill and i
actually appreciate doing these spaces with you man because what this show is is not an echo bubble
we're not known as like xyz coin guys or this coin guys like we we talk broader markets we we spin ideas and that's what i love about this man but you know we got soul btc
looking insane and if we're about to have that business cycle expansion and shift from from
hawkish which is quantitative tightening to neutral slash dovish with all these stable coins being printed, which is essentially
QE. Like that is literally QE. And even though the stable coins aren't going to be swapped in right
now, when they do, it's going to be like 2017. It's actually going to be like 2017, and you're going to see the Others BTC chart actually going to price discovery.
So that's something else that I've been looking at, man.
And Others BTC, I remember when I had asked you, and man, brother, that actually nailed the pico bottom if you still have that tweet saved.
I think I asked you to chart others BTC. I had said something like the bull market doesn't actually start until others BTC starts moving and then goes into price discovery.
And I mean, we can even compare that to Bitcoin.
The last bull market actually didn't get into full swing until after Bitcoin went into price discovery above 20K, hit 42K, pulled back to to 28 and then that's when you had all coins going
absolutely nuts um so i mean the same can be said with others btc when that started going into price
discovery last cycle uh all the other all started going ballistic coins that didn't do anything for
months and months and months even during d5, like Matic started to wake up.
Harmony one is another one.
Phantom.
And there's a saying, history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
And I truly think both Sol BTC and ETH BTC could go into price discovery.
I'm more confident with Sol BTC going into price discovery,
but I think at the very least,
the very least with the setup that we have here,
Donnie,
ETH BTC could actually retest its 2017 all time high.
At the very least,
I'm confident in that brother.
I found the post bro.
There it is up in the nest,
the exact bottom of others BC when you mentioned it.
And I was kind of saying it's obvious where we are
and how many months ahead, 6 to 18.
And I think that's still the case.
Honestly, you could rally all the way until the end of 2026
with what's going on.
Obviously, take it one wave at a time.
That doesn't mean that you can't go through
like a multi-month downtrend in between.
But it just means that the bull market will continue,
you know, potentially all the way through 2026.
So we'll just take it quarter by quarter.
But yeah, this others BTC chart,
the one that I shared in the nest from when I posted
that, when you asked, you can see, right, that red circle is the pivot point where shit coins
start trending upwards against BTC. Why? Because the macro environment supports it. Just that
simple. So that lasted a very long time from the last pivot point in 2019. It could be a lot sharper
this time. It could be, you know, it could all wrap up,
let's say in the next like two to three quarters
or, you know, who knows,
but many months ahead of others' BTC outperformance
if we're looking at this chart alone in the pivot point.
And right now that like, this is obviously an old chart.
You're basically reclaiming that range low right now.
So you've curled up from that low
and you're, you know, reclaiming that range low right now. So you've curled up from that low and you're reclaiming that level.
So yeah, it's all, man.
Today when I was checking the charts, bro, I was honestly just clicking through 20, 30 charts.
And I'm just like, wow, everything is pointing in the right direction now.
The button's already been pressed.
the button's already been pressed you kind of just sit and wait and watch it unfold
You kind of just sit and wait and watch it unfold.
donnie and and you remember when we had uh that little slump to like i think we had that slump to
like 109 and then uh we were discussing like a retest of 107 106 and we were both saying that
if btc marks down to those levels and all start printing uh higher low structures
september this upcoming september which we're in right now is going to be one of the greenest
months that the crypto cycle has ever ever ever ever seen and just look just look at prices now
from the monthly open we're up like double digits 10 plus percent across the board solana is up like
30 plus percent to start off the month we didn't see that last year or the year before or in 2020
or in 2021 um it's it's honestly insane it really is like you know when we when we host these spaces
i understand that when i tweet them out it might seem like I'm engagement farming or click baiting or some of the things that I say might seem like dubious speculation or jokes.
But I'm being very, very, very serious when we discuss what's going on in the market.
what's going on in the market. Like the playbook is actually unfolding and it's being guided by
the Fed, by the man in charge of the treasury market, which is Scott Bessent. He gave you the
top of the market and the bottom. And he's telling you that the market is about to go absolutely
insane and that you should not be pessimistic about the economy.
The playbook that they're giving you, they're guiding you step by step.
And the setup is actually insane.
It is actually insane.
And what we've experienced over the last few years is just a warm up.
Like we were discussing, I remember like when I finally opened my eyes to Iron, I was being told that you're late to the trade, Wabi. Hang on, wait for an announcement. And now it's up like over 3X. And I have text messages telling people to buy iron stock, which I'll probably post on my personal profile. I was telling people to buy iron stock in the teens, 12 bucks, 13 bucks. And they're like, oh, are you sure?
Are you sure?
Oh, man, I don't know.
I don't know.
I'm not sure about that.
It's like, bro, it's BTC and AI.
It is an AI stock.
And the only exposure that you have to this sector are things like NVIDIA, which is like,
it's not even comparable.
It's really not even comparable it's it really it's really not even comparable and the next trade if people even pay attention to ai or at least it's semi-consensus is open ai which has a ridiculous
valuation already um i don't even know if i would be bidding that but um i mean even just take a
look at uh even just take a look at uh what just the general stock market has done since the lows.
We were calling for a melt-up.
The S&P went to 4,800.
The S&P hit an all-time high of 6,600.
That is almost a 2,000% move in five months.
That by definite...
2,000%. My bad. 2,000 points. Excuse me. Almost 2,000 points. Excuse me. in five months that by definite two thousand percent two thousand points excuse me almost
two thousand points excuse me excuse me it seems that look dude here's the thing sometimes when i
get so excited um i i end up i end up not having a focus right i'm lacking in concentration
so here's the thing right so before all of this
i used to work in an orange juice factory but then i got canned because i couldn't concentrate
so i need some orange juice i have to hit the audience with that anytime i can dude you have
no idea how many times i've used that over the last five years but here's the deal we have uncle
Mike on the stage and it's and it's ironic because like I was mentioning man you know on Fridays
I usually have uncle Mike on the stage um and then lo and behold a couple minutes later he shows up
man so uh I think we should pass it on over to Mike to uh take advantage of this opportunity so mike what's going on man how are you feeling
this september is honestly incredible it's incredible across the board and as you said
these kid analysts they they get lost in the sauce and they end up missing the forest for the trees
the kid analysts are in shambles but welcome mike welcome welcome brother hey guys hey guys i was in
new york first half of the week and had some really great really great meetings had a lunch
in particular with tyler page uh the ceo cypher we went for a couple hours and then he went on
stage at the hc wainwright conference we actually walked over a couple blocks to the conference and
then he went on stage with a bunch of other folks and candidly i thought he ran circles around almost everybody else up there
and part of that is just he's really good at what he does and part of it is that they're just so
much better positioned than a lot of other companies in this space because they went out
they basically are the fastest follower in my opinion the iron model, which is to go out and find the largest sites you can, which have sort of optionality to provide compute, not just to Bitcoin, but also to AI.
Again, this has been my thesis for two and a half, three years now.
A lot of people know this.
They're probably sick of hearing it.
But you're making a lot of money if you stuck with it.
And it's not really just, you know, the kid analyst thing is a caricature.
You know, I like to say like a lot of what you see on X is performance art. I'm as guilty of
that as anyone. Like I create caricatures of, of, they're like an amalgamation of like dozens of
interactions and people I've talked to on here. And then I turn that into like a persona. That's
not a real persona, but like molds together a bunch of the
characteristics of a bunch of people that i've interacted with so the kid analyst is like the
either the person that has like two years of investing experience like pontificating about
what's going to happen in the bitcoin cycle right like we all know these people they just showed up
this cycle but somehow they're experts on meta planet and how much better meta planet is than iron or how much better meta planet is than micro strategy even though they just showed up this cycle, but somehow they're experts on MetaPlanet and how much better MetaPlanet is than Iron or how much better MetaPlanet is than MicroStrategy, even though they just showed up
two weeks ago. There are a whole bunch of those people. They show up basically whenever there's
a lot of noise. They don't actually have any long-term perspective. They don't actually have
any business building experience. They've never been CEO. They never sat on a board. They don't
have any interaction with the companies directly.
But somehow they're magically experts based on some sort of line they drew on a chart and maybe a couple of tweets from other 23-year-old analysts that they've spoken to in the previous week.
And it's unfortunate because there are a lot of other people with their retirement plans and stuff on the line listening to some of this stuff. And unfortunately, you know, people aren't that good at judging the difference between like true experts and people
who are just like, again, showing up and trying to build cloud on the internet. And that's why I
think this platform is both wonderful and dangerous, right? It's really hard for the
average person to decipher between Bitcoin and shit coins. And it's really hard for the average
person to decipher between somebody who actually knows. And it's really hard for the average person to decipher between somebody
who actually knows what they're talking about
and somebody who doesn't.
And unfortunately, it costs people a lot of money
in a lot of different ways over time
if they can't make the difference clear between those.
But here's what I'm seeing now.
And I've been talking about this a bit,
so it may be repetitive for folks
that have followed me for a while.
But as I said six, nine, 12 months ago, there's a lot of mania about essentially MNAV, right,
which is like this fictional fairy that lives in the forest that magically shows up and sprinkles fairy dust on you,
which is supposed to magically create these excess returns in platforms that are largely just using the capital markets to buy Bitcoin at the market price. And my argument, this whole cycle, but most importantly,
during the peak of euphoria, both in the spring of this year and then in the fall of last year,
was that that magic fairy dust may not actually play out exactly as you expect. The fairy may
disappear back into the forest. And then you'll retrench to
something called Bitcoin per share, which is also sort of not real because if you've ever studied
capital structures, if you've ever, again, raised money, equity debt, if you've ever been on a board,
if you ever really thought about how common equity gets valued, you'd recognize that Bitcoin per
share only means something if common equity
is the only security on the capital stack. The moment you start layering other securities on
the capital stack, Bitcoin per share is completely meaningless. What matters is do you have a real
business? Do you have a business that generates real cash flow, either in dollars or in Bitcoin,
that's a flywheel that does not depend on outside sources of capital that
can grow organically over time, even if the markets were close.
And again, I made that differentiation many times in many different ways, in different
contexts over a long period of time now.
But I just suspect that most people didn't hear it or didn't understand it, largely because
again, most people don't have any real experience
with this stuff.
So they're just sort of piling in when everyone else is piling in and they feel that safety
in numbers.
And the reality is in markets, like if you feel safe because either the prices are really
high or because you see a lot of other people standing around clapping and cheering and
congratulating you because the prices are really high, you're probably about to lose
a lot of money or at least lose a lot of money relative to something
that represents true value in a fundamental sense.
So where we are now is, I think we're still sixth, seventh inning of sort of the crypto
cycle.
We may only be in the second or third inning of a new liquidity cycle.
As Donnie and others have pointed out, there's a confluence of factors right now on the
macro side that lead me to believe that it'd be really hard for there to be a top in Bitcoin
in the very short term. But separate from that, AI is going absolutely gangbusters. I mean,
if you looked at Oracle's forecast from the earnings report this week, their cloud business
is going to explode. OpenAI signed the largest cloud contract in the history
of basically the business uh with oracle nebius signed a 17 billion dollar deal with microsoft
that cloud deal by the way with oracle was 300 billion and so what's happening is this massive
repricing of all of the gigawatts of power that was secured by the so-called Bitcoin miners, which again, think back
six, 12 months, I use the caricature of a kid analyst, which implies an age, but literally it
was kid analysts that were 57 and 63 and 42 years old who didn't really know what they were talking
about saying that these were garbage companies because they didn't actually understand what
these companies controlled. And so what's happened is, as these deals have finally
come through, there's this systematic repricing now of the entire balance sheet of all these
companies. And so even without the cards flipping in terms of like, who does Iron do a deal with,
right? Who does Cypher do a deal with? Like, without those cards even flipping over, you're
seeing a huge re-rating because people understand now that every single megawatt in the United States that's of any quality whatsoever, especially if it's in a cluster like 300 megawatts or 500 megawatts or gigawatt, every single megawatt is going to be used for AI.
And if it's not used for AI, it'll be used for Bitcoin.
And that's virtually inevitable.
And so you don't even need the deal to actually be announced in order for those repricing events to start to happen. And those have been quite cataclysmic this week. It was no exception, but it's been happening since April.
2022 closed today just under 34 so it's a 34x it's now exceeding every other bitcoin proxy this
cycle something that six or 12 months ago seemed pretty unlikely to people who hadn't studied
anything and were just speculating based on god knows what but i said it at the time i said i don't
care what's outperformed to date if you just look at the balance sheets of these companies
and you actually understand what they're building,
it's going to be very hard for anything to outperform a company like Iron
across a full cycle.
Here we are.
We're not done with the cycle yet.
And so it's still possible that one of these treasury companies
could come back from the dead, right?
And so I don't want to rule that out.
I actually hope that everything rips, right?
I actually hope that Bitcoin goes to $250, $300, 250 300 350 and everything's going to rip in that window the
question and this is the same question i've been asking for the last two and a half years is is
only what's going to rip the most right because if bitcoin goes to 250 or 300 you're going to make
money as long as you don't over trade as long as you don't try to get market neutral you don't try
to hedge like jim chanos by the way i haven't seen jim chanos at all uh he's another one of these like adult kid analyst who
like thinks he's so freaking smart but doesn't understand the cycles and so he shorts stuff at
the time of the cycle where it makes no sense to be doing that like great you made a three percent
relative return when bitcoin's going up 100 a year during the bull market so good job jim chanos
but where we are now like you just want to stay long right like it's much more likely the cycle
is elongated in 2026 than it stops earlier because the rate cutting cycle is just starting again
um liquidity is starting to to go up it should go up in mid-september from a seasonality standpoint
anyway um you've got yields
on the long end pulling back right you've got you've got the fed rate cuts almost certainly
uh coming you got the dollar still hanging out dxy still hanging out 97 and then you've got the
small cap index the russell 2000 on the verge of like a four-year breakout which you can just
imagine what happens if the rustle breaks out
like everything's going to go completely ballistic everything biotech right like you're going to have
a list anything and everything all of crypto ethereum looks really strong solana looks really
strong you don't even have to be an acolyte of any cult you can just like buy everything
i even bought a little bit of uh bitine Immersion just because I like Tom Lee
and like he's really pumping Ethereum real hard.
I have no idea whether that works long term.
I don't care.
You can make money being long everything right now.
You can make money being long SharpLink Gaming, right?
You can make money being long
pretty much every Bitcoin miner, even BitFarms.
Even maybe one of the worst run Bitcoin miners
this cycle is starting to move because they're just
repricing the asset base right because if you own if you own any good power at all particularly in
interesting geographical areas it's getting repriced with the assumption that someone's
going to do an ai deal and i think that's a really good assumption and the market is not dumb
so anyway look you guys know this. I've been consistent for
basically two and a half, almost three years now. It's been the same story the whole way.
Unfortunately, it's boring, right? Because people want to hear you change your mind a lot and
make drastic changes in your positioning and tell people that you're calling the top and
being short and all this bullshit. That's not how you make money like if you want to make a lot of money like a lot a lot of money in markets you take large
chunky concentrated bets when they're deeply out of favor and then you ignore all the fucking noise
and there was so much noise in this space in these spaces right on twitter scroll any feed of anyone
in bitcoin and there's a bunch of nonsense
it's a bunch of stuff again some of these people should be ashamed because they actually have some
real life and business experience and they were telling you to sell bitcoin at 25k
right and they were telling you to sell the miners like basically 90 below where they are now they
were telling you to sell them right and and i tried to warn people i said you're listening to
people who have no idea what they're talking about and And it's cost a lot of people, a lot of money. Thankfully,
a bunch of people did listen. Um, I get notes every day. Like at this point, it's dozens and
dozens, pretty much every day replies, DMS, et cetera, from people who said, thank you so much.
Like I almost capitulated, like I almost sold iron at five or I almost sold cypher at two or
whatever. And now I'm up five, six, seven X from i'm like yeah good job i mean uh you did the work i
just told you what i saw with clear eyes i'm not as affected by other people's emotions you know
as most of the people are apparently in this space so a lot of people say oh i understand bitcoin but
what they're saying is they like bitcoin when it's up, right? And they disappear
when it's down, right? And that isn't understanding Bitcoin. That's liking Bitcoin when Bitcoin's
going your direction. Understanding Bitcoin means that you get really excited and want to talk about
it more when everybody else is depressed. Understanding Bitcoin isn't cheering when
everyone else is cheering. So a lot more people need to learn that, like understand that you've
got to be counter-cyclical, you've got to be contrary. You can't just be excited when everyone else is
because you won't make any money. There's going to be a lot of people who've not been in these
spaces for the last two and a half years that are about to pile in to cipher at 15 or 20 or $25.
Now they still may make money, right? I'm not, I'm not saying they shouldn't come into some degree.
We want them to come in at those prices, but, we had two years to buy it at $2.
So why would you wait till 25? Well, this is what's wrong with markets. People are lemmings.
Even institutions have institutional constraints that cause them to pile in at higher prices.
And as a retail investor, your one advantage is you can be decisive, right? You can
act without those institutional constraints. You can behave counter-cyclically. You can be a true
contrarian. And so, yeah, like, great. These people are going to pile in iron at 35, 40, 50, 60,
whatever. You know, you had plenty of time to buy iron at two, three, four bucks, right? Like,
I'm just going to say it again. That doesn't mean you shouldn't add do it doesn't mean that it won't go higher it just want to i just want to remind people that for next cycle pay
attention to the people who actually get excited about all this stuff when it's down like cheering
for it now and showing up on the field today to congratulate everybody for how much money they made
is not like how you make a lot of money in markets. It's not how it works.
So I don't mean to be a downer or be negative or anything,
but I think people need to be circumspect and ask themselves,
did they actually make the correct decisions this cycle?
How much were they influenced positively or negatively
by idiots on the internet
who don't really even know what they're talking about?
How much were they influenced by the prevailing sentiment?
How much did they act conventionally versus unconventionally?
Did they actually have original ideas or not?
Because that's where real alpha comes in the long run.
When everybody's making money, that's not where you discover who has alpha.
That's where you just make a lot of money,
which is the period we're entering right now.
Everyone's going to make a lot of money,
and everyone's going to lose their head, right?
At some point, and a bunch of random people you've never seen before are going to show
up in these spaces.
And when it gets really crazy, there'll be just a handful of voices that are finally
saying, OK, calm down, right?
But it'll probably be the same voices that at the bottom were telling you you should
be interested.
Just nobody cared then.
So anyway, markets are wild.
Congrats to all the people who
stayed long bitcoin stayed long ethereum this whole cycle stayed long cypher iron
etc right strategy like you've made a lot of money if you've been here for two or two and a half years
but i think anybody allocating today who's allocating their first dollar they need to
be a lot more careful and i I'll just leave it there.
Mike, I wanted to pick your brain about these Solana debts that are coming out.
Kyle Simani and also Novogratz
are raising billions and billions
to twop into spots sold.
Does that remind you of when Sailor
and also Tesla started to buy BTC? And i think we had about a year left of runway left
in the market when you started to see that froth coming in and right around that time when sailor
started to buy btc for strategy you also had the uh the iwm and kathy wood make a ton of money and we're about to see that right now the iwm is
about to uh actually go into price discovery for real this time what are your thoughts on that mike
i mean i actually know samani pretty well uh personally actually came to my bachelor party
um we sort of had a falling out because i was talking shit about shit coins in like 2021,
22 timeframe.
And I would say I don't really like him.
I didn't really like love him, but I definitely don't really like him personally.
He's kind of obnoxious.
And he'd probably say the same thing about me, right?
So just to be fair. You had this guy, your bachelor party?
Yeah, he came.
He came.
He was sitting there and I was pointing at something. I won't say where I was, but he grabbed my hand and was sitting there and he he i was pointing at something
i won't say where i was because he grabbed my hand it's like don't point at that and i was like kyle
fucking leave me alone like don't grab my finger uh anyway like we were fine after that but then
like i started talking shit about shit coins and then he unfollowed me and then like the last time
i saw him like he i walked up said hello and like, well, I'm kind of busy right now.
I'm like, you know, he's like, he didn't do it in a graceful way.
He did it in kind of like a douchey way, like the most douchey way you could possibly do something.
So all that for context, just so you understand my bias, with all that as context,
Samani is smart money, right?
money right he's one of the best investors in all time of in crypto so like i definitely don't think
He's one of the best investors in all time in crypto.
him doing a treasury company is is a sign of a top but i think like strategy was a seminal moment
because it was the first time at scale somebody figured out that you could juice your equity
returns by putting crypto on the balance sheet and now there's just a bunch of copycat companies doing it effectively every token so i i just don't know if it matters like
i think it's just a sign of mid-cycle liquidity i think it's a sign that crypto and blockchain
and tokenization etc is going to start to eat more of the traditional system i think that's
an inevitable uh sort of trend that's going to go for decades so So I don't know if you can learn anything about
the cycle, but again, even though I don't particularly like Salmani as a person and
haven't enjoyed my personal experiences with him, I don't think that's a sign. I think Solana could,
what is it at right now? 200 something. I think my prediction from the bottom of the cycle is
on the bottom of cycles that could go to 1,000.
that I could go to a thousand. So I wouldn't be surprised if Solana goes to a thousand.
So I wouldn't be surprised if Solana goes to 1,000.
And this would just be the beginning of a trend of companies doing that.
I mean, it comes down to the liquidity cycle, right?
If let's just say, hypothetically, we look back in time
and Bitcoin ended up being perfectly and accidentally
sort of overlapping and superimposed on a tight four-year liquidity cycle
such that everybody's been deluded into thinking that having cycles actually driving things when in fact it was
just liquidity and with liquidity turning up right now it's possible we're at the earlier stage of
the liquidity cycle even though it feels like we're at the later stage of the equity or crypto
cycles and so because of that like you could see a world in which the top in Solana doesn't come until Q1 of 2027. Right. I'm not saying that's what's going to happen, but I think the biggest mistake I see people making again, it's this kid analyst caricature. It's not a real person, but like an aggregation of perspectives that I see when I look at social media, like everybody seems to think that there's some law that's rooted in physics,
right, like gravity itself, that requires the crypto cycle to turn over in Q4 of this year
when none of those historical markers are there anymore. Like none of the things we saw that were
also coincident indicators along with that having cycle timing are in existence yet.
So I see everybody saying,
oh, we're going to top in the next 60 days.
It's like, I mean, maybe,
but more and more to me,
it looks like that's the 5% or 10% odds outcome
and the 90% of outcomes are skewed now into 2026
and possibly into 27.
So again, Somani aside,
Solana treasury companies aside,
I think the biggest question still is, are we probability weighting correctly the odds of a later cycle top and an elongated cycle?
And if that's the case, does that change your positioning?
Does that change how you should be thinking about the cycle?
I'm being very careful about trimming positions just because when I look at the AI capital, AI CapEx cycle, right, like the data center development space, like the place that companies like Iron and Cypher are playing in in a really big way, it is still the first or second inning.
Like, oh, you know, Cypher's up 5x since April 7th or 5.5x, whatever.
That's too much.
Like, when I look carefully and, like, remove the day-to-day price action and all the noise and the sentiment and all the talk about the deals, which I do think are coming, by the way.
I think Cypher's going to have at least two co-location deals announced with a tier one counterparty by the end of the year and possibly one by the end of this month it's trading that way right um and i just have enough sort of visibility into the
quality of those sites to believe that there's no way those sites are going to stay on the market
very long but it's tempting to think oh you're up five and a half x from april like that's that's
enough like you should be trimming that position back But I look at holistically the value of the next four, five, six sites behind Barber Lake
in Black Pearl.
And I'm like, holy shit, this could easily be a $30 or $50 stock.
Like how much do I want to sell at 10, right?
How much do I want to sell at 12 or 15 when there's a good chance if the cycle's elongated,
go to 30 to 50.
And so does that
mean you trim none? No. But like if, if you start to build a more accurate probability model and
you think that this liquidity cycle runs until 2027, then you really want to be careful about
being sort of tricked out of too many of your positions too soon. Cause then you'll just end
up chasing later once you realize, Oh shit shit i sold a gold mine just before it's
actually going to run and the last thing i'd say on this is just everybody has ptsd this cycle
because this is one of the most challenging crypto cycles in the history of crypto it's not even
close right like it was the most challenging by 10x from the from the bottom december 22 to now
because even though you made a lot of money if you stayed long, like most people didn't do that. They traded too much. Most people jumped in and out of altcoins trying to beat Bitcoin and
got blown up a couple of times, got blown out of meme coins. They jumped into miners in July of
23 at the peaks only to see them retrace relative to the treasury companies. Then they jumped into
MicroStrategy Q3, Q4 last year only to get blown out of that. And then they jumped into MetaPlanet and only get blown out of that.
And so even the people who stayed still have had really jagged performance.
And so everybody thinks that the rest of the cycle is going to be that hard because it was so hard to date.
But the way this tends to work is up until a certain point, it behaves like it just behaved where every rally gets retraced,
every rotation gets stymied, et cetera. And then at some point it flips and it gets super easy.
And actually the stuff that went up a lot already goes up more and it goes up almost uninterrupted
with no pullbacks. And that's what causes the chasing behavior. That's what actually causes
the FOMO because people sell because they have ptsd thinking
oh i bought cypher at two it's at 10 85 i should sell it there and maybe i can buy it back at six
because that's what happened before well what if you blink and in a week or two it's 15.
what do you do do you wait longer and then what if you blink in a week or two later it's 18.
are you still waiting for it to come back to six or do you pile the fuck back in at 18 hoping to catch the move to 30 and this is what causes these extreme moves like yeah from a like
classic value investor standpoint fundamental value standpoint you wanted to buy it at two
or four or six but it was much harder to buy it there because you again you had all this noise
on x like people saying don't do it it's bad you should buy meta planet at 15 instead like
you're an idiot if you don't buy treasury companies, whatever. And so they got blown
out and then they maybe tried to come back. And now it's like, well, it must be overvalued because
it's up a lot, but they just don't understand the mechanics of how the late cycle dynamics work.
Like the whole reason why these things go parabolic is because you have a whole bunch
of people that are sidelined or underexposed when the actual move happens, which I think is what's happening right now. I think we're in the middle of it.
My wife even said to me a month or two ago, I said, hey, things are starting to move up a little
bit. She says, you know, it's much quieter than the last couple of times you said that. I said,
you know what? You're right. Just from a qualitative standpoint, this move feels
different. And in fact, this move has been completely different. Like if you look at the way iron and cipher and Tara Wolf and a couple of others
in this particular sector have traded, this move has had a totally different character than every
single move prior to that, which previously the cycle, any sharp upward move was met with like
immediate resistance and thus, thus triggered people to say, Oh, you should be selling calls.
You should be hedging. you should be hedging,
you should be taking large profits. This time around, if you did that on this move, for example,
on iron from 5 to 34 or on cipher from 2 to 10, anywhere along that curve, you've already found
yourself out looking in and wondering, at what point do you chase? And so I see a lot of people
hoping for pullbacks, which is exactly the fuel you need for the parabolic move so i think like for some of these
names we're still at the beginning of that phase and at some point here it'll flip to the like
truly easy phase where you just do nothing and the stocks literally go up in dollar value like
more than the previous two and a half years in like a couple weeks and that's when you start
to like become more defensive when you see that type of price action but we're still in between
the hey i still have ptsd this this is going to pull back any moment and the easy phase i think
we're in that transition period right now mike what if i told you the same thing is happening
for altcoins right now i i believe you um but i'm not following
that at all so so yeah that's fair i mean i can expand upon the point um something i've been
talking about quite a bit with uh with the because bitcoin group is the integration and adoption side
for altcoins right we're starting to see projects like hyperliquid. Wabi's touched a lot on Pump,
Pump Fund that is, right? Projects that are generating real fees. Hyperliquid is doing
more volume than Robinhood. They've generated over a billion dollars in fees. And if you look
back at previous cycles in particular for kind of how crypto natives approached altcoins in general was this push for adoption,
you know, just from institutional side of things, smart money, however you want to say it,
and the fact that there is going to be real world adoption in crypto and that there's going to be
integration and kind of the changing of the paradigm in regards to the financial sector.
And then once we got this quote unquote,
you know, validation in regards to, you know, the Bitcoin ETFs, it felt like a lot of that
kind of fell away. The sector more shifted towards a casino type mentality with, you know,
obviously Solana, you know, base all the all the layer ones and layer twos. And then we're now starting to see real companies with real
business models generating large fees and putting out products and services that are largely,
in my opinion, going to shape the financial future of the financial asset class. And like you said, with miners in particular, in a similar kind
of reflection, if we look at it, miners were largely misunderstood by especially the newer
investors this cycle in particular. It's an asset class that I've touched on for quite a bit with
the miners. I'm not going to get into that. But very similar, like I said, in reflection to miners,
the new wave of, you know, liquidity, you know, retail, customer base, in my opinion,
does not have that like fundamental understanding, the fundamental narrative and thesis,
in particular with the ones who are in Bitcoin particularly.
If we look at the majority of, not the majority, but you could theorize that there's probably quite a bit of liquidity in Bitcoin right now that is largely fundamentally not knowledgeable
in the aspects of what crypto has the potential of doing and also the new projects that are making
waves within the broader sector. And when they see, which I believe they will see here very soon,
is the lack of performance in Bitcoin, which we are already seeing, and this chase towards
altcoins. Because if you look at it, a lot of investors that have gotten in this
cycle are flawed in their fundamental understanding and thesis one of what Bitcoin is. They're
probably just chasing numbers and green numbers and hype and ETF and yada, yada, yada. Oh, now
BlackRock's buying. Okay, it's good for me to buy. And they don't necessarily have that investment
philosophy that we're trying to fight the debasement of our
currency.
And if you take that perspective, for instance, in which they don't have probably, most likely,
the newer investors within the space, and you start to see altcoins in particular outperform,
you start to see that belief and the ever-changing environment in which crypto is and the ability for it to now integrate into the current financial sector.
You're seeing a lot of teams push and drive and really show that through their tenacious efforts that they have the abilities to integrate in big, big, big, meaningful ways. And those investors that aren't don't have that fundamental thesis and
understanding for Bitcoin and are really just chasing are probably going to end up chasing
altcoins. And that's a lot of liquidity that I think is going to come towards altcoins. And,
you know, you're going to see a big push, particularly maybe with a sole ETF, Doge ETF,
XRP ETF, and that shift back towards the fundamental belief within the space that,
right, we're changing the environment for the financial landscape over the next few decades.
Because it's got, it had gotten to a point where it was pretty disgusting on chain what was
occurring, but a shift back towards that fundamental kind of belief metric paradigm,
we'll call it, that we've had
in previous cycles. And as soon as we got legitimized, it was like it all got thrown out
the window for the most part. And people were just, you know, buying the craziest stuff on chain.
But, you know, if you look at, for instance, like I said, Hyperliquid, obviously, there's ticker
HYPD. If you look at that, they are a DAT, digital asset treasury company that's acquiring Hyperliquid. And I think too, Hyperliquid has just been, I don't think it has been the ticker that's been paving the way for what I believe to be the rest of the asset class to kind of get that like, quote unquote, legitimization from, you know, the broader audience. And that broader audience,
part of that are people that are in Bitcoin that I don't think really, you know, they don't have
that fundamental understanding. They don't have the time of day to really put into listening in
the spaces 24-7, putting in, you know, research and analysis because they have other things going
on in their lives. And that just is what it is. And I think they're going to end up chasing a lot of these altcoins here moving
forward, particularly into Q4, especially if you look at a lot of these pair charts. I've talked
about it in some of the group chats. I mean, I think the asymmetric opportunity is not in Bitcoin
anymore. It's just at least for a trade perspective. I'm not talking like long-term, but from a trade perspective,
the asymmetric opportunity is very, very, very much so
in some of these names that have kind of
quote-unquote proven themselves
and are proving themselves.
Yeah, I'm not going to comment
on any of those specific names
because I don't follow them as close as you do.
But when I use asymmetry, what I really mean by that is the downside is capped.
The downside is sort of truncated dramatically.
And so you may feel like Bitcoin doesn't have enough return or juice left in it this cycle
to justify your investment. But in large size, it's the only
asset in crypto that I'm personally comfortable with. And I do still think Bitcoin offers tremendous
asymmetry. When I think about, because my time horizon is, call it five to 10 years at a minimum.
Yeah, it's just a different investment philosophy and thesis like i said from a trade trade perspective yeah so so but let me walk you through how i think about bitcoin's asymmetry like
i think bitcoin's going to be a 10 million dollar asset while i'm still young enough to care or
enjoy it you mean trillion 10 trillion 10 million per coin asset in the time okay. Let me just finish the thought. So, so that means there's a hundred K of downside and effectively 9.9 million of upside. So basically 99 to one, um, in a time horizon and a timeframe that I'm comfortable with. Cause I'll still be like, I'll still be pre-retirement age potentially in that window.
potentially in that window. So yeah, maybe if my target timeframe to do something is in the next
three or six months, I might sell out of some of my Bitcoin to buy Ethereum treasury companies or
to buy Hype or to buy Pump or something. These are the names that I see bandied about
by the kids that are trading those. And I don't have any problem with that. I think that's a
healthy part of a crypto market. In fact, I've said many times, I want to see some of these wild coins, even if they have a revenue model.
I understand your point that some of them are more mature than previous cycles.
A lot of the stuff that went up a lot in the previous cycle had no business model at all, had no or very little fee revenue.
It was unclear what the differentiation was, and it went up anyway.
But that was a marker that we were in the part of the cycle that was actually gonna be fun even for the highest quality things like Bitcoin so
again I hear everything you're saying I think a lot of people I don't really
care what other people do right like I'm a professional investor this is what I
do for a living I'm doing it at large scale like I can't afford to bet on
every you know every speculative thing that I find that could go up. I watch stuff go up all the time that I don't invest in. Eric Jackson, for example, who I love a lot, is a great guy, has been pushing Opendoor and Iron and Cipher over the last three to six months he partially discovered iron and cipher because of
me and i educated him on those names now did i go out and run out just because i like eric jackson
he talks about iron and cipher on tv did i run out and buy open door no um did i see it go up 70
yesterday and say wow that's really cool congrats to him yes um did i regret buying it no because
it never fit it never fit my model for what i do So I watch a lot of stuff that goes up all the time, and I don't swing at every pitch.
I only swing at pitches where the risk-reward for what I'm doing is in my favor.
And I prefer things that are highly systematic where I'm basically the house.
And the punters may win against me occasionally, right?
If we're taking a lot of bets like
at some point there's variance right and even the house even when you systematically stack the odds
the house takes losses periodically for short periods of time but over a five or ten or fifteen
or twenty year time frame which is my time frame for investing like a large amount of capital
i'm only trying to play games where i'm essentially guaranteed to win. I want to be
guaranteed to win, and I don't care if in the very short term someone else looks like they're
running faster. Because if their strategy is not fundamentally sound, like if it's based on
momentum or hype or charting or technicals or something, if that's their primary strategy,
every single one of those people, when I look back 10, 15 years later,
they're all gone, right?
And the only people that are left
are people who actually understood what they owned
and understood what their unique competitive advantage
in markets was and where their edge was.
Their edge has to be something
that's ultimately fundamental, right?
It has to be informational.
It has to be psychological, right?
It has to be behavioral. It has to be structural, right? It has to be informational. It has to be psychological, right? It has to be behavioral.
It has to be structural, right? It can't just be like, I find charts that are going up and I buy
them, right? Like if that's what you say your edge is, that might work for the next three months,
but I probably won't see you in 10 years from now. Like you won't be here. So that's kind of
how I feel about that. Again, like no problem that anyone else wants to do those things. Those are great markers of more liquidity. And I want to see a lot of people make money in a lot of different ways because that means we're all doing well.
And the liquidity will flow out again.
It may not feel like it right now because liquidity is about to flow in.
But once the liquidity is really flowing in, that's when you want to start thinking about the liquidity flowing out.
I think the issue I had this cycle is that a big chunk of people who thought they were really smart were looking for the liquidity to flow out before it even flowed in.
So for the last two and a half years, they were telling you all the reasons why you should be selling and all the things on the chart that said you should get out and all the reasons why the economy was going to collapse and there was going to be a credit crisis and there was going to be a recession and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
And they cost people a lot of money because the right positioning since January of 23, it was just long.
Now we're finally at the part where liquidity is about to flow in.
only at the part where liquidity is about to flow in, so we're about to flip to the easy part of
So we're about to flip to the easy part of the cycle.
the cycle, a bunch of those people have already decided the cycle's over and they never even got
the benefit of the cycle till now because they've chopped themselves up before we even got here.
But now what will happen is a new crop of people, once it starts to get fun, will flow in and say
it'll go on forever. That hasn't happened yet, but when it does, that's when serious investors
start to ask fundamentally, what do I own?
What can I hold for the next five or ten years?
What needs to be trimmed or disposed of because it's not as fundamentally sound as I thought?
And then you keep going, and that's how I view it.
Dana, let's get some thoughts from you, brother.
Hey, what's going on, guys? Good to be here.
Yeah, a lot of good thoughts today and ideas from everyone here.
A lot of smart people on this board. And yeah, pretty much echoing what everyone else is saying.
So it's no surprise that right now we're starting to see a little uptick in price action as well as adoption.
I mean, we've seen a lot of positive news items come out from the SEC chair.
Obviously, the rate cuts coming up. And the biggest thing, which has already been echoed here, is the rise of gold and silver and how silver's reached all-time highs and how gold is reaching
all-time highs. And it's in tandem with stocks. So really that doesn't happen often, that you have
everything rising. Usually gold is seen as a defensive versus stocks. But now that we're
seeing that, it shows that people don't have as much trust in the
central banks. And so even with treasury yields up near 5%, I mean, that's something as well that
kind of adds to that thesis. And in my opinion, I think that crypto is going to be that flight
to safety. And we're already starting to see that trickle in. All these dApps are coming up.
Everything from BlackRock finally announcing they're going to tokenize everything on the blockchain. That was a big news item the other day. And all these
ETFs now approaching. And just like everyone was saying previously about now you have these new
people that are going to start coming into the market. Like, I mean, how many people did call
the top just, what, less than a month ago, whenever Bitcoin was near 108K? And now we're seeing
everything, you know know everyone calling for
much much higher and myself donnie wabi i know a lot of people here have still maintained their
thesis of bitcoin will get to you know 150 200 250k by in my opinion may of 2026 i believe we're
having an extended cycle this time and that's something i've been posting on my x account for
you know a whole year basically and now we're finally starting to see that come to fruition. And it feels good because
I mean, seeing what's going on in the macro environment right now and seeing how the dollar
is continuing to destabilize, to devalue, I think the writing's on the wall. And Bitcoin is going to
become the new global financial currency.
And we're already starting to see that with various countries, even some of the BRICS
countries, right? So China, Russia, India, they're getting off the dollar standard and they're
becoming more receptive to Bitcoin, more so, you know, Russia, China and India are still a little
hesitant with crypto, but I believe we'll start to see them kind of come on board sooner rather than later.
And then with everything else, I mean, how much Bitcoin and blockchain tech in general is getting
adopted and we still have a lot of catalysts coming up. And so we still have the Ethereum
staking ETF, which BlackRock applied for. In my opinion, that's going to get approved in Q4.
We still have the SBR accumulation plan that has yet to be announced by the US government,
but is actively being discussed right now. I mean, we still have retirement funds getting
access to Bitcoin, which they're going to add that to their balance sheet sooner rather than later.
And so there's a lot of things where, you know, I don't think people are pricing it in necessarily.
They're, you know, kind of missing the forest for the trees, as we're saying. And there's really
no logic that besides, oh, you know, everything was going up
and we topped at 123K and now, you know, that's it. Right. And originally I would have said yes.
I mean, I had my last year, I had my top at October of 2025 and Bitcoin at 120K based off
the long term trend line resistance from 2017. But with everything else coming to fruition and seeing the adoption really ramp up and seeing
obviously etf flows ramp up as much as they had i mean bitcoin even ethereum that was the real
surprise because when ethereum started having nine fig inflows when it used to have 10 20 million at
most i mean that showed you adoption was really coming to the forefront with some of these etfs
and now you have ethereum i mean basically being a proxy more or less for an altcoin season,
quote unquote, which I believe that we're very close to, if not already starting via
Solana and others starting their run again.
I mean, it's only a matter of time before you see everything else flow.
And we've seen coins like AVAX now.
I mean, AVAX was doing great just a few days ago.
And some would argue that coin was already done, right?
It's a dino coin.
It's not going to do anything. And so that's the stuff you have to
look for, for actual adoption and actual retail interest is a lot of these dino coins and some
of these top 100 coins that haven't seen activity for the past year or two years. Now they're
gaining life again. And I mean, you guys nailed it on the head when you said we have two types
of people, the ones that call the top this cycle and the ones who are going to start to come in
from that FOMO, right, from what's happening right now. And those who've been
prepared and ready, those are the people that are going to double down right now and not try to take
profit and think this is the top. And so I'm still managing my risk accordingly. I'm not going to be
a blind bull. But at the same time, I mean, yes, this cycle has been the hardest out of all the
previous cycles. And we haven't really had a proper run or, you know, really, you could say proper adoption
until now.
And now everything, it's almost creating the perfect storm with the macro environment and
the crypto environment.
And then, you know, people are saying now this is probably going to be the super cycle.
And I know that's a tongue in cheek term, but just with everything playing out, rate
cuts push back as much as they have. I mean, Trump wanting to pump the market and lower rates to three basis points,
as you were saying earlier. I mean, it's only a matter of time before we see all that come to
fruition, the money printer turn on. And, you know, really, we really start to see the after
effects of that on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, really cryptocurrencies in general. And with AI
booming, that's going to be the big narrative.
RWA with BlackRock getting involved, that's going to be a narrative that's coming up again.
I mean, there's still plenty of catalysts and I'm looking forward to it and I'm positioned accordingly. And I'm just going to ride the waves and not ignore the data, whereas most people are
staying emotional. Hey, Data, what's your thoughts on PumpToken, um and like why is it that it's still
the most contrarian trade in all of crypto even though like the reason why on chain is even a
thing is because of pump fund you know that's an interesting one because the pump token was
in essence it was almost seen as a no-brainer trade. Whenever it launched,
people were saying, hey, this is the coin that's just going to go up only. And basically,
it did the opposite, right? I mean, it pumped a little, but then it just kept going down and
went below, I believe, three cents. And people thought it would have stopped at the pre-sale
price near four cents. And so now that we're seeing them change to 100% fees to buy back the
token, and now there's just this different mentality of looking at it and saying, okay,
this could continue playing out. And I know there was a lot of competition between Pump and Bonk
and giving fees back to that. And then you had the Heaven Dex, the Lite token. That was another one
that was trying to change the game with providing fees back to the traders. And so, yeah, I think that as far as the contrarian trade for pump, I mean,
there's still a lot of opportunity there. The question remains if people are going to stick
with it or if it's sustainable to begin with. Right. And so we're seeing other Solana tokens
pump as well. We're seeing, you know, I mean, there's obviously some coins like Bucky,
some meme coins that are actually having organic growth and strong communities behind them.
But I think that when you have Solana recently had its ETF that came online from DTCC, I believe,
but you have, you know, more money flowing to the Solana ecosystem. I don't see why Pomp wouldn't continue if they maintain their current status quo with the buybacks. But again, at the end of the day, it's just, it's all about attention and it's
all about hype. And if they can maintain that attention and keep that flywheel going, I don't
see why it can't continue, but I wouldn't bank everything on it because we know how quickly
attention can shift. And so yes, I would have some of my bag in there, but it wouldn't be all
of it. I would still look for new opportunities because every week, you know, we know there's something
new. But for the time being, Pump does have that mind share and it does still have that flywheel
turning. And so as long as, you know, the attention is there, I don't see why it can't continue.
Data, can you bring me any trade in the top 100?
Name your token that I would size into rather than pump.
Because to me, I just don't see it.
If I look at the top 100, how about this?
Anything outside of the top 10.
Let's be reasonable here.
Anything outside of the top 10, from 10 to 100.
Why would I size into anything
if i want to have a certain part of my net worth right for all coins a certain amount of money on my net worth to put into all coins what would be a better rr than pump because to me i don't see it and i'd like to have this discussion and and perhaps
i've learned something um i i just don't see any better rr trade at all whatsoever other than uh
other than pump if i'm going to allocate heavily into an all coin outside of the top 10 from number
10 to 100 pump pump would be it and i've been saying this
since like sub three cents on this show so great point and if you had asked me you know a few days
ago just in general the top coins i was i was posting about ethereum's descending wedge and
bitcoin's inverse head and shoulders that played out nicely recently but if we're talking about
outside the top 10 i mean there's a few coins that'd be good
to diversify into in accordance you know in addition to pump i mean hyper liquid has been
basically up only as well right i mean that recently broke all-time highs you have them
having their flywheel of all their fees you know to buy back the token you have i believe there's
some absorption from the upcoming teams unlocks in november and so that's what another reason why
it recently broke all-time highs
because they're dealing with that accordingly.
You even have Link.
Link is one that has gained a lot of hype,
especially with the RWA narrative resurging again.
I think that Link may be a sleeper
and one that I know I've seen some attention over the past month.
And then also a few others that I'm watching is,
you know, stable coins are really big as well.
So Athena, if that ends up
gaining more traction again, I know I had some crazy performance a few weeks ago, and it's
slowly continuing again. And then even one that people may not be, you know, paying much attention
to is Pengu. So I'm in a few groups with Luca Nets, and I mean, he's bullish on Pengu, and
they're doing a ton of marketing. I mean, those guys are marketing geniuses.
And so I know that Q4 should be really good for it.
I know that they have the IP and they're actually exercising that to the max extent possible with all of their plushie toys and their events and arcade games and everything else they're
utilizing it for.
And so Pengu, I think, is one that will be a sleeper.
And if you're bullish on pudgy penguins, I think that it's one of the only, even NFTs,
but it's one of the only projects with IP that's really exercising that to the max extent possible.
So yeah, so Hype, Link, Pengu, ENA.
And besides that, I mean, you already mentioned Pump.
But besides that, that's probably where I would stick with.
Obviously, AVEXax i mentioned that earlier but it's just i need to do more research to see if avax has you know staying
power or you know what their catalyst is from the foundation but um yeah those are the ones i'd be
looking at outside of the top 10 currently as far as a quote-unquote safer pick if you're just going
to invest for over the next three to six months data do you think any of
those tickers could outperform pump given like the mind sure that pump has in the flyway that they
have and just like that they own on chain man there's no other way about it like they are
the btc if you want to talk on chain there will not be an on-chain season if pump is not in price
discovery so wouldn't you want to be, like, for a major,
mostly allocated to something like pump
versus something like a link where there's no flywheel on link?
AVAX is using a lot of their runway to pay, like, cheap KOLs
that honestly have nothing to provide as far as value goes.
They just put some copy and paste thread.
They're paid their $2K a month.
ENA, that's a tricky one, man,
because I think if we want to talk about alts
where these big boys could start buying in like they are with Soul,
it would be something like an ena outside of pump but
like the setup for pump is just so so so big if you pair it with hype hype they could take control
of uh the perp market in crypto because perps are just a perp a perp a perp platform like hyper liquid um it does have upside my only thing is is like is coinbase going
to have a huge perp market and invest in their perp market and take the slice of the pie for
hyper liquid whether it's pump fun they have no competition yeah there's Fun, but there is no second best when it comes to Pump Fun. Like, they are on-chain.
Pump Fun created runners in the billions.
Billions and billions and billions and billions.
And I just have a really difficult time, man.
But ENA, that is something.
Thank you for bringing that up.
I kind of forgot about that.
It's really difficult, man.
The alt market for majors is such a different ballgame
compared to how it was back then.
But I do also like Pengu.
I think it's like one of the only VC tokens that could actually go viral.
I think it's one of the only VC tokens that could actually go viral.
But momentum pump is just like anything you can want in an altcoin.
And people often have this like weird misconception that like you need retail, you need retail to come in and all this stuff.
But like, bro, you had Chad shoving in eight figures into,
into Trump coin.
Like there were transactions in the seven to eight figure range,
clipping in and clipping out.
Like you don't need doofuses from Tik TOK to buy your circus coin.
You don't need that,
man.
You just need like the dormant liquidity on ether soul to be activated.
Like they've printed billions and billions of stable coins. You just need, like, the dormant liquidity on EtherSoul to be activated.
Like, they've printed billions and billions of stablecoins,
and the one chain that, like, has proved that that dormant liquidity is actually going to be used has been Sol.
But, yeah, Data, it's really hard for me, man.
It's really difficult.
Like, as far as, like the setup um and flywheel
like in bull markets you're like our goal is to find a scam right like luna was a great scam
uh 2017 neo great scam um sounds too good to be true has a flywheel Actually has a set amount of notional buyers, both small and large.
And is like the backbone of the narrative.
2017, it was the smart contract slash smart city narrative.
That was NIO, right?
2021, the L1 narrative, that was Luna.
l1 narrative that was luna now it's on chain so what else is there is what what else is there
Now it's on-chain.
for a major to a write-off of when it comes to that it's probably pumped yeah and real quick to
add on to that i i think it's a valid thesis 100 i mean especially since soul is starting it's you
know basically breakout right now in a sense that, you know, we're in that
downtrend. It finally broke above that 200 resistance from that daily trendline resistance,
and now it's continuing up higher. But I think that with Solana having mindshare, especially
with the sole BTC chart and the sole ETH chart doing so well that, I mean, that's one of the
major arguments for pump to do well, you know, accordingly. And I think that that could be a good argument. And then also you have the whole hated rally argument. I mean,
so many people lost money on pump because they thought it was a no brainer play and
it potentially was, but you know, you had so many people in the presale and there was,
you know, the current environment wasn't really conducive to it. And then you had a lot of drama
going on. And so that's why we saw the bleed out. And then finally, you know, we're seeing the reversal from here.
And so, I mean, hated rallies pump the hardest, as they say.
And so that would be a good argument with if we do think that Solana is going to $1,000.
I think, in my opinion, $350 to $400 by the end of this year is a good conservative estimate.
Anything higher than that would be icing on the cake.
But I'm not, you know, opposed to Solana being $1,000 by May of next year, especially if we continue higher
and Bitcoin gets closer to that $200k plus level. But I do think that there's still a lot of
catalysts. The Solana ETF, I mean, we still have a lot of things, the DATS, right? I mean,
those are going to pump a ton of money into the ecosystem. And so, yeah, pump is one of the best
beta plays, you could say, on the Solana ecosystem. And so it's not bad at all to have some exposure to that, especially
like you said, if they have the flywheel going, they have the most mindshare. So I agree completely.
And I would include that in my basket of alts. And it is hard to try to time which alts are
going to outperform this cycle because it has been such a game of musical chairs. But I think that
most of the strong performers have
shown their hand like we mentioned hyper liquid you mentioned pump and a few others right that
are still kind of the front runners here and yes we're going to have a few that are going to surprise
people of course but i mean you can't ignore the data and as long as you have right you know
revenue to back why the price is continuing higher and sharing the fees to buy back the token and actual data to back it up.
That's what makes a coin sustainable.
Not like you said, some of the tick tockers who are buying these random coins and it's just a Burj Khalifa at the end of the day and it goes to zero.
So, no, 100 percent, I agree with you.
And that's the most you can do in this market back.
You know, look at the data, look at the technicals.
data look at the technicals if those line up then it's it's a no-brainer at that point
If those line up, then it's a no brainer at that point.
that's it that's one thing i'm actually trying to like work hard at is like am i wrong what what is
there on the other side what in the top hundred could outperform pump i actually got a comment
saying can you please stop talking about punk i don't know man um maybe
maybe we should talk about all coins that are still not even above their may highs
perhaps that would be uh some better content right but um look i'm gonna pass it on over to
matt and then i'm gonna wrap up because like this has gone on for way too long to be honest
on for way too long to be honest um i got to my vacation destination you've been going so long
i arrived yeah yeah no i know i know it's just like i i i just don't really like doing spaces
for more than an hour um anymore unless like some crazy stuff is happening um or some crazy stuff
is about to happen i'd rather save the juice and keep like
the viewers entertained and engaged because like there comes a point man where it's like
like why even stream today if like prices are the same like why even why even do anything right like
crypto is now like stocks dude like sometimes you just have to wait for the trade um and thankfully some
things are actually ramping up soul's going crazy but we all know what happens right once these
things go into price discovery you have two months of euphoria and then six months of nothing
and that's that that's gonna be uh something matt you remember last year bro six months of nothing
um yes my gosh yes we could wabi what you me and donnie could not pay people to buy bitcoin at 55k
we begged people we begged people anyone who would listen, buy some Bitcoin.
Buy some of these Bitcoin miners that have a call option on AI.
Buy anything.
This is still a bull market, and you couldn't convince anyone.
This time last year, almost exactly one year ago, early September,
Bitcoin once again tickled $55K, and you couldn't pay people to uh buy it yeah um
i think a huge range is gonna happen after like this next mania um which i think lasts a couple of months for what it's worth um but uh matt we have uh fomc next week man cpi came in cool ppi came in cool actually no cpi
expectations ppi came in cool um main jobs i guess it's it's what they're focusing on now but
if you want to give some of your thoughts man um yeah i understand everything is just going to be up and to the right but
yes he's like having cycles i think they're broken at this point um because if you want to
take a look at what's happened in previous cycles the cycle or rather the bear market
is apparently supposed to start in six weeks in six weeks and even like this weird uh
astrology thing like the blood moon whatever that happened in march i decided to fade that and it
happened like last week and price is actually pumped so it's like the the path of least
resistance still remains to the upside and max pain Payne is just higher, man, to be frank.
Longer cycle.
Feel free to give your thoughts, man.
Yeah.
Look, we're going to have all 2026 to argue if the Bitcoin four-year cycle or the presidential cycle or the business cycle or your mom's cycle,
whatever you want to call it, we're going to have all next year to argue if it's over or not.
Because technically, if January 2027 closes below January 2026, then technically it's a red year.
And technically, the bears will say, see, the four-year cycle is still true.
But we're going to have, that's next year's problems.
This is still 2025, and we are barely over halfway.
And the Fed is telling you, they all but guaranteed you're going to have not one, not two, but three rate cuts going from now into the holidays.
And yes, the job market has cooled off, but we still
are a growing economy. We still have the best of the best S&P 500 companies,
more profitable than ever. We still have a cooling CPI and unemployment that's relatively low. So no, you can't pay me to be bearish.
You can't pay me to dump my portfolio.
I'm long only.
And we can have debates about like which stock
or which crypto or which Bitcoin or treasury company.
We can have those endless debates
about which one will outperform.
But the short answer is up and to the right for the whole space.
And so whatever you've been sitting on all summer long, staring at on your watch list, I don't understand how you haven't already allocated by now.
I posted earlier today, Bitcoin is on the verge of breaking out. It is
so close right here. And I doubt they're going to, I would doubt Bitcoiners are going to wait
for FOMC confirmation to punch out. Like this could break out over the weekend. I just shared
it up in the nest. I'm sure Donnie talked about it already too. He's always spotting these
way early. But this is truly probably the last best opportunity before Bitcoin starts making
new month over month over month all-time highs. And I think it's 150k by Christmas day. I've been
a broken record about that. Other people have higher targets. I think it's 150k by Christmas day you know I've been a broken record about that other people
have higher targets I think Donnie's I don't want to put words in his mouth but 130 to 180 I like
that that seems very reasonable but the answer but the answer is higher so you know each individual
can judge for themselves what they feel they should be allocated to.
You know, your risk is up to you.
That's your personal choice.
But go long and go strong.
Hey, Waka Flocka Flame is in the audience, man.
I sent him an invite to speak.
I remember when Tyrese Gibson was in the audience too, Matt.
And who's that basketball player?
Scottie Pippen a couple times.
Yeah, Scottie.
Yo, Waka, man, come on up here, bro.
Say what's up, bro.
I'm sending him an invite to speak before i uh wrap up here man um i don't really i don't really have
anything much more to say guys we've uh been streaming for like two hours but um if you guys
enjoyed the show i want to keep up with what we do you guys uh liked what was uh discussed here
feel free to give us a follow i go live here on spaces monday through
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tell a friend to tell a friend about us here at bb so thank you thank you thank you thank you
and uh shout out to my lord and savior jesus christ for allowing me another day of health
to talk markets with you all we had some events happening earlier in the week with christian
persecution and guys we should stay prayed up and and thank the Lord for each and every day
that we're active and healthy.
And many prayers for all of you guys.
Stay safe.
I hope the Lord Jesus blesses you and your families this upcoming weekend.
And spaces are recorded as always. I always have to give the glory
to Jesus. Without him, none of this would be possible. So guys, thank you all so much for
the support. Whether you like us, don't like us, I want to thank you for still tuning in and for
the engagement. But we'll be back on Monday at the same time.
And for those of you that like visual-based content, we do have a YouTube show called Market Check, which is hosted throughout the week as well. The usual start time is between 11 a.m. EST to 11.15 a.m. EST.
So over here at BecauseBitcoin, we have a variety of shows tailored to your taste.
So with that being said, take care, everyone.
Bye-bye. Thank you. I'm Oh
Oh Thank you. Oh I'm going to go to the next one. Oh Thank you.
