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Market Talk- CRYPTO ready for new highs!? Stocks are MELTING UP!!
Recorded: Aug. 7, 2025 Duration: 1:50:52Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored the potential for a bullish Q4, driven by historical trends and anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts. Key indicators such as rising on-chain activity and shifts in Bitcoin and Ethereum dominance suggest a favorable environment for altcoins, with many participants expressing optimism about upcoming market movements.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.ご視聴ありがとうございました . I'm sorry. so The so What's going on, guys?
Welcome back to Market Talk, brought to you by because of bitcoin
i thought i'd start off with this uh song from the from the new superman movie i've started a
few of these faces with this song before and it's usually been over the last few weeks before
some interesting price action you guys should uh definitely check out that movie it's probably the
greatest movie that i've ever seen in my entire life outside of
passion of the christ but guys happy thursday happy thursday but most importantly happy post
f1c week if you guys have been tuning into these shows usually i've been discussing uh with donnie
who's going to be joining us tomorrow not today taking a day off today but usually what we've
seen the week after fomc we tend to see some resolution to the upside.
I discussed that during the space that we had last Thursday, which was, ironically, FOMC.
And I was discussing, hey, let's give it until next week, specifically the second half of the following week after FOMC.
We should see some resolution to the broader market.
We see Bitcoin here breaking up above the upper band EMA. I think I usually have the 20-day,
40-day, and 60-day EMA. We're about to cross to the 20-day. And usually when we cross above it,
we usually go on ahead and have a huge gusto candle. And I think that's going to take us
to 180K. But nonetheless, guys, just to lay the ground floor here, right? Equities, QQQ closed
its highs from last week or the week before, I think. The all-time high for the Qs is 568. And
I believe we closed right along that. So I personally think the Q's going to price discovery probably towards like
650 going into the end of the year. But just some confluence for that, guys. Robinhood stock
in price discovery again. And that's kind of been the stock that I've mentioned here on these spaces
pretty much almost every stream now since we bottomed out in April, even before that.
stream now since we bottomed out in April, even before that. And I really do think the arbitrage
trade with PUD catching up with MSTR and really being the golden goose for the rest of the cycle
is playing out in real time. But it's going to be quite a big space today. Got a lot of people
up on stage. And I personally don't really have much to say on the markets today.
Kind of feeling a little bit diluted. So I really just want to see what some of the other guys
are thinking about the markets. But first and foremost, I want to thank each and every single
one of you that are tuning in right now, whether it's here live on the space or you're listening
to the recording. You guys have many options to
tune into other live streams but you guys uh remain faithful and uh graciously tune into these
spaces day in and day out so thank you all so much hope you're all doing well spaces are recorded
as usual but uh i'm personally feeling excited we're seeing seeing a ton of things blow up on chain. And that's usually indicative of alt season or at the very least,
some periods of upside within the altcoin space that are very, very beneficial.
And one thing that I'm going to keep pressing the ball and hit the park,
hit the ball across the park, it's a little baseball reference is uh
eath dominance and um over the last over the last two years the narrative has been pay attention to
bitcoin dominance a heavy denominated bitcoin portfolio is probably going to outperform
most alts and if you guys take a look at uh e BTC and Bitcoin dominance, dominance looks tough. ETH BTC looks bottom. And usually whenever you have ETH BTC, have that initial rally off of the low. ETH dominance typically outperforms most alts over a broader time horizon. That really hits home with what many people see on here, what we've been discussing on these shows as far as broader market cycle theory.
You take a look at something like Others Bitcoin.
Others Bitcoin barely looks bottomed.
You see ETH BTC.
ETH BTC isn't even above its 200 weekly moving average.
It still has a lot of things.
It still has a lot of hurdles to go through.
First one being the yearly open for ETH BTC. That's the first
thing that we got to go through. And then after that, you got to go through the Q2 highs and then
the final boss, which is the ETH merge highs at 0.08, which I do think, personally, I do think
we're going to be trading above that, especially now that we have all these ETH treasury companies coming out of the woodwork.
Monetary policy is getting easier.
And we had Tom Lee go on the news yesterday.
And I understand you look at Tom Lee and he's like a hyperbole, right?
He'll say Bitcoin is going to 100,000, right?
But people think that's going to happen next month.
And Tom Lee is more of a macro guy.
But he's the guy from Fundstrat.
And he himself is building up a treasury company.
And he wants to own 5% of the entire Ethereum supply.
So add that, plus the wealthy clients that BlackRock has under their AUM.
BlackRock has under their AUM. And add also Scott Bessent talking about his total addressable
market prediction for stablecoins, which is $2 to $3 trillion in market cap. You have to ask
yourself, what does that mean for the underlying L1 that that activity is facilitated on? You look
at things like Ethereum, Ethereum market cap isn't
even close to those numbers. Same thing with Solana. And it really seems like Solana is that
only other blockchain from this cycle that's probably going to have some staying power.
You look at these ETFs for Solana that are about to go live, sole staking ETFs. And honestly,
the future looks bright for this entire space.
And I'm really excited to talk about what's going to happen in the immediate short term.
If you guys missed today's stream, we were talking about how if you go on FedWatch, the
Federal Reserve is now is now has like a 94, 98 percent chance of cutting rates.
like a 94, 98% chance of cutting rates.
And we've all seen how the market likes to front run that news
and then shortly produce exuberant rallies shortly after.
Fed cut last September and last November.
A couple of weeks after both of those cuts, the market went on a vicious tear.
After the first cut, meme coins went ballistic.
You had things like SPX 6900 going crazy. And then after the second rate cut, you had crypto AI
going crazy. So history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. Quantitative tightening,
hopefully, hopefully ends this quarter because at this point, Jerome Powell just seems really politically driven. But that's
either here or there. Everyone can make their own choices. But when you have interest rates
nearly double of where CPI is right now, where headline CPI is at, you have to ask yourself,
is he actually politically driven? But nonetheless, I got Max up here, Louis Tucker.
I got crypto data. I asked him to come on up to join the show today.
Actually, yesterday, but he was at the gym during that time.
We also have CryptoBullGod.
So, guys, before we officially get started and cook for you all over the next 45 minutes to an hour, maybe longer,
depending on what everyone has to talk about, the discussion and all of that,
you guys can go ahead and show some love to the space.
And I'm sure there are some Superman enjoyers in here.
So guys, go on ahead, click the spaces tab, and show some love.
Then right after you do that, you'll see the link up above all our cool profile pictures.
You'll see a link that says x.com slash i slash spaces.
Now, if you guys can do me a favor
and smash up the like button.
If you want Bitcoin to break out,
smash up the like button.
If you're in the same camp as myself
and you believe that Ethereum is going to go over 4,000,
which I do at the very minimum,
I do think ETH can go on ahead and test 4,100.
Or even if you think Bitcoin is going to make new all-time highs, smash that like button.
But also, just as important, hit up that retweet button as it does a number of things.
Helps please our tech overlords.
I'm sure Max likes it when I say that one.
Helps please our tech overlords.
That's a saying that we've had here for about 18 months now, but does help our tech overlords who really, really, really enjoy when our posts get a lot of engagement.
But go on ahead and do that, guys. Really appreciate all the love and support that you all do day in and day out on these spaces.
Showing some love on the like button, showing some love on the repost button.
But nonetheless, we're going to go ahead and get started spaces are recorded as
usual so i'm gonna do this i'm gonna pass it on over to louis first because i understand he has
some obligations to attend to over the next uh hour or so so look i'm gonna start it off with
louis so louis what's going on how are you man great to have you on the show and uh looking
forward to the discussion man so i guess we can
start off with this what are your uh thoughts so far over uh this quarter three we look at previous
quarter threes now i know i'm rambling right now but i do i do just want to lay out the groundwork
so that way this is more of a conversation rather than an interview so check this out right over the last two quarter threes 2024 2023 the
market was trash last quarter three was abysmal there were only four takers and they were all
on Solana and there was really nothing else to do it was chopped Bitcoin was chopping around
equities outside of Nvidia they weren't really doing much so it was
really lackluster right same thing with the year before that if you weren't trading casper or roll
bit there really weren't many opportunities man but if you look now there's plenty of tickers on
base that have been sending plenty of tickers on soul that have been sending plenty of tickers uh
on eth that have been sending and i can mention tickers on ETH that have been sending.
And I can mention them right now.
Pengu has been doing well.
SPX 6900 has been doing well.
Ray has been doing well.
Block has been doing well.
And these are all liquid, nine-figure, $1 billion-plus valuation for these assets.
So, man, what are your thoughts for the second half, really, of quarter three men and also glad to have you up brother thanks for having me wabi what's going on
everybody what a powerhouse panel we have here today loving that loving that seeing some uh
familiar faces out there in the crowd. Glad to see everyone here and glad to be here.
Yeah, to answer your question, Wabi,
pretty much seasonality has been thrown out the window this year,
especially what we saw in Q1, right?
Historically, seasonality, post-halving year,
Q1 coming out of a halving year, coming out of that election year, usually is that crazy bullish time period for, you know, Bitcoin, ETH, and altcoins.
And we saw the exact opposite.
why after that, you know, that pullback we saw after the post-election, uh, stuff that went on,
I kind of threw that seasonality out of the window, right? It's something that I followed
and something that I understood and was aware of. But if the first quarter of the year of the
quote unquote seasonality isn't playing out, um, I wouldn't expect the rest of it to play out, right?
Because obviously there was a shift, you know, in that flow of capital for whatever reason
of why it works out that way.
So, you know, a lot of people coming into this summer claiming, oh, summers are always
chop, bearish, right, at the Q3.
And I'm like, yeah could you could say that but
then you can't also say yeah well seasonality is dead because q1 um we were we were bearish right
so everyone expected a bullish q1 we were set up for a bullish q1 everything the timing of this of
these you know these bitcoin and crypto cycles matched up to that Q1.
And it didn't happen, right?
So when we were coming into this summer and was hearing a lot about,
oh, the seasonality of being bearish or non-actionable, I was like,
well, if it's not working out in Q1, seasonality is thrown out the window,
anything can happen, right?
Anything can happen, especially, you know, after ETH and altcoins
went through a multi-month downtrend, you know after eth and all coins went through a multi-month downtrend um
you know like like did people expect a multi-month downtrend on ethan all coins
to continue for another quarter like that's not how markets work right and people a lot
of people got caught up in that in that uh mentality where you know the market goes down
for so long that they think that the market's never
going to go back up again. And a lot of people got caught in that trap. So I'm not really worried
about seasonality into the end of the year. What I'm worried about is kind of where I feel we are
in the market cycle, however you want to look at it. Because if you're just crypto-focused,
I'm sure you've heard of the Bitcoin four-year cycle right the halving year um you know all that
stuff but you also have election cycles you also have uh business cycles you also have
you know monetary cycles and when you look at it in that aspect you know these bull runs, not just crypto, just assets in general, they kind of have this like four, four year lifespan.
Um, and where I think we're at in that cycle is the tail end of it, where we're coming into that last year, that last six, nine, 12 months.
You know, it's never going to be exact.
It's never going to be a pinpoint date or time.
Um, but I think we're coming into that area of
the cycle. And I'm excited. I'm very excited because in that area or in this spot in the cycle
is when you see the higher risk beta assets have their time to shine. Because if you've been in
crypto the last year and a half or two years,
you know damn well that the equity markets have been having a grand old party this whole time.
And we've been stuck here in crypto kind of being like, what the hell?
Right?
Like equities, S&P making fresh all-time high after fresh all-time high.
NASDAQ, fresh all-time high after all-time high.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin's been doing great
bitcoin's been having its normal cycle bitcoin's still following that four-year cycle
but even even crypt uh in all coins while we've seen some glimmers right here and there over the
last two years we've definitely seen some glimmers we haven't had that sustained rally
and that sustained um momentum for all coins but I think this is the stage of the cycle where
you see it, right? You'll see capital rotations and money flow from the S&P, from the NASDAQ,
flow into the Russell. Because again, the Russell also hasn't made all-time highs
in this cycle just yet. So where I think we're at in the cycle, I think you're going to see
a continued climb out of majors, out of equities, but it's going to be a slower grind.
I think a lot of that capital will begin to flow down the risk curve.
They'll be looking for value, that stuff that's sitting on the floor that hasn't made all-time highs yet, that's sitting at value prices.
We'll see the Russell begin to take off.
We're already seeing the Russell begin to
climb. It's literally almost identical to the 2020 COVID V-shape recovery fractal.
And then last but not least, crypto, where we see ETH and all coins take the ball, take that
dominance, take that liquidity back from Bitcoin and really start to shine. That's the kind of where I think we're at in this cycle.
And I think we have about three, six, nine months,
wherever that timing may be.
And that's where 80% of the profits are made in 20% of the time, right?
This is where everything gets crazy.
And as long as humans still have emotions, fear, greed,
people are going to be taking profits and moving money down the risk curve and dabbling into the riskier assets.
And that's why I believe we're still going to get it.
And I believe that what we saw out of ETH, if you look up into the nest, I shared a post that I posted earlier today.
It's kind of a cool graphic.
One of our graphic guys, Z, he's an absolute wizard.
He cooked this up for me.
But what I believe has been happening and why I think ETH and Altcoins haven't followed, you know, their normal cycle where they already would have had or we've already been in the depths of like an Altcoin season.
already would have had, or we've already been in the depths of like an altcoin season.
What I think has been happening is the fact that big money, big institutions have been,
you know, going through a multi-year accumulation of ETH and altcoins, or maybe not altcoins,
but definitely ETH, right? And that's why I believe this, you know, part of the cycle was
curbed by several months. That's where we're at,
where I think we're headed. You have ETH sitting right below 4K. You have Bitcoin.
Looks like it's trying to put in a good old fashioned 2021 style dip and rip. We're catching
a lot of people off guard. Everyone's used to Bitcoin pulling back and then taking, you know, multiple weeks
to kind of recover where, again,
I think we're in the stage of the cycle
where these dips should be quicker.
The pace of the cycle should start picking up.
The pullback should be, you know, quicker,
ripping back to the upside.
And we should begin to see sustained rallies
out of all coins.
And I'm extremely excited, Wabi.
Now, now, Louie, let me let me let me throw this in your direction.
Right.
So one thing that I brought up during yesterday's space was the total three chart.
Now, I'm not sure if you've taken a look at it lately, but if you look at what happened,
I hate saying if you look at previous cycle,
if you look at previous cycle,
but that's all I've got.
That's all I've got, guys.
I'm sure some of you guys are sick and tired of hearing it.
If you look at last cycle,
if you look at the last cycle before that,
I even got frustrated with myself.
That's the data, Wabi.
That's all we have.
Exactly. That's the data, Wabi. That's all we have. Exactly.
That's the data.
Exactly.
Exactly.
Exactly.
I think I have to be more lenient on myself with that.
But if you look at what occurred in February of 2021, it wasn't until that point where it actually broke its January 2018 all-time high.
And Solana, people will be shocked when they hear this, but things
like Solana were only $3 going into the Joe Biden inauguration. I think Phantom had a market cap of
like 15 or 20, 25 mil market cap at that time. Cardano was still only like 10 cents or something like that. And that was just as total three was about to break out of its January 2018 all-time high.
And that essentially gave us a full year of runway.
A full year of runway where liquidity was zapped into the market.
And that's why we see some altcoins actually peaked out well before others, because all these
Stimmy checks that the crypto bros got, including myself, we're putting it into ETH DeFi, AVAX
DeFi and stuff like that, right?
But we're not seeing that right now.
So what would you say if total three breaks all time high, which I do think it's going
to happen, but probably in Q4,
wouldn't you say that that gives us some extended runway, especially given how some other pairs, like others BTC, looks like? I would even say when you look at pairs like that,
and then you look at the Fed ending quantitative tightening, and probably some small period of Zerp and QE.
Trump wants 0% interest rates.
He wants at least a small batch of QE.
And just for those that are listening right now,
QE does not happen just because there's a pandemic.
I think there's this like illusion that Kiwi only happens
either when the housing market is about to go to kingdom come and get burned down to fairy dust
or the world is in lockdown, right? In January of 2019, that is when the Fed started to do some QE. And then you had Bitcoin rip from $3,000 all the way to $14,000 in just five months.
Everyone thought we were going to new highs.
You had the S&P 500 and the Qs rip up to new all-time highs.
And Tesla was acting as if it were Ripple in 2017.
It was up only, up only.
So there's a lot of good stuff man that's
headed our way that could give us um some more grace bro just just want to get your thoughts on
that because i'm not sure if uh yeah me and you have ever had uh have had a discussion like this
in the past yeah so the total three so total crypto market cap chart is something i do look at a good amount um our discord knows it
very well i talk about it a good amount i i've even actually been uh you know doing some analysis
on it on the the youtube videos i've been dropping every week um at the because bitcoin youtube
channel and you know to correct you wabi we actually are uh sitting above all-time highs
and i don't know if we're referring to the same chart.
I'm just talking like.
Total three.
Total three.
The others chart.
The others chart.
Okay, others.
Yeah.
Which is everything outside of the top 10.
Right, right.
Okay.
Yeah.
So that's a little bit different.
I haven't looked at that chart, but it probably looks like a similar chart that I look at,
which is, you know, crypto total three, excluding Bitcoin and ETH. So instead of the top
10, it doesn't have Bitcoin and ETH. That chart specifically looks like to me that we're
consolidating and breaking out right below the old all-time high. So it looks as if that is
gearing up for the move to break the 2021 all-time highs, but more specifically, the total crypto market
cap chart, right? That's the entire asset class as a whole, you know, depicted on a chart. We are
just now, you know, getting above the January 2025 highs, right? Like that post-inauguration pump,
you know, we are just now, you know, we closed two or three weeks above it. And that's kind of what I've been discussing, you know, on the, you know,
the YouTube channel and on the disc in the discord is that if you just block out all the noise,
right, this is a crazy, crazy world we live in today with the internet, Twitter, news,
Donald Trump's our president, you know, like, we live in a crazy world, a very noisy world,
a lot of information. If you just blocked out all the noise and look at the total crypto market cap
chart, we are in a high timeframe uptrend and just now breaking not only our 2021 market all-time
highs, but now the January highs, which were slightly above.
So he kind of peaked above that 2021 bull run high, got back below it, or not below it,
but kind of flipped it into support.
And now you're just breaking those highs from January.
This is when the fun happens.
This is when the fun starts, right?
Once you enter that price discovery, once you enter that blue sky territory, this last 20% of the cycle, which I think we're in, is where 80% of the profits are
made. So to kind of switch it a little bit, to talk about something I'm more knowledgeable on,
is the total crypto market cap chart. We just flipped the previous highs into support.
We are entering price discovery.
And as we're entering price discovery, if you look at any chart history or, you know, specifically the crypto, you know, total crypto market cap chart, that is when, you know, we've had this nice grind off the lows from 2022.
This is where the part of the chart where it starts to get more vertical, more parabolic, more FOMO,
and this is when the fun happens. So to kind of answer that question, total crypto market cap,
breaking all-time highs, flipping it into support, entering price discovery. That's why I'm excited.
But the problem is people are so caught up and hell-bent on the last crappy six months,
they're not realizing the big picture here, which is we're entering the cycle. We were People are so caught up and hellbent on the last crappy six months,
they're not realizing the big picture here,
which is we're entering the cycle we were going to have six months ago.
Now, that's really where I think we're at.
Plus, like you mentioned, they obviously want interest rate lowered.
I think that's coming.
That's just going to fucking, sorry, I choose my language,
but light the gasoline, right? That's going to be the gasoline to our fire and really spark this move. We kind of have a perfect storm
here. Even without that, I think we're still going to expand and do great. That just adds
to the mix. But this is why I'm so excited. Crypto total market cap breaking out,
But this is why I'm so excited. Crypto total market cap breaking out, entering price discovery. Altcoin market cap, just the altcoins are so close to getting back above that 2021 all-time high. That's altseason. When the altcoin market cap chart is above the previous cycle highs, which was 2021. And we're on the precipice of that. So that's why I'm so excited.
And that's why I still believe we're going to get this parabolic alt season
or whatever you want to call it.
It might look different, right?
It might look different.
I don't have a crystal ball.
It might not be every single token goes up
like we used to see.
And we have a lot more different tokens out there,
a lot more dilution,
but I still think we're getting that crazy euphoric
you know end of the cycle where the lower risk assets i mean the higher risk assets like the
low cap stocks and the russell like crypto uh finally have their time to shine and then it
likely ends in a big bang of some sort so you better get out before that are you talking about the mother of all meat sticks
man yes the mother of all meat sticks i like that louisa so what are you doing like like during this
time are you on chain are you uh are you on perps what are you doing what are you doing during
this time in the market man i like to do a little bit everything wabi i i think in this crazy market which is crypto i
feel like it's very important to have exposure to a little bit of everything right you should have
exposure to high cap altcoins you should have exposure to mid cap altcoins you should have
exposure to low cap altcoins you should have exposure to memes you should be learning how
to trade perps and using leverage at key inflection points in the market
to kind of, you know, increase your exposure and, you know, but you have to use it the smart way.
More recently, I've been having a grand old time in the trenches, man, especially during the last
two to three weeks. They, you know, Bitcoin pulled back, alt had been bleeding for about a week or
two, Bitcoin and ETH finally caught up and pulled back.
But if you were trading in the trenches, and by trenches, I mean on-chain, low-cap, super low-cap, this is risky stuff.
Fair warning, guys.
Disclaimer, extremely high risk.
But if you've been playing and taking shots here and there on-chain, it's, you know, base chain, whether it's soul,
you know, we've been hitting some big runners right in the discord, uh, and stuff like that.
And honestly, because I've been doing that, I haven't really felt, uh, much of this pullback.
We felt, you know, we've seen over the last couple of weeks. So it's clear on chains coming back to
life. That's also another great sign, uh, for, for the market, in my opinion. And that's
what I've been doing. So, you know, on chains coming back, have been having a great time doing
that. But at the end of the day, I do everything I you know, high caps, fundamental plays mean coins,
RWA AI, you know, I'm a big believer that you should have exposure a little bit to every niche
in some way. Because at the end of the day, if we are in a bull run and we are entering this phase, I think we are, everything's going to be going up, but these niches will also take turns popping off and having relative strength.
So when you do have exposure to all these different niches, you're not going to, you're not going to be so quick to jump ship on what you're holding to go chase the hot
ball of money. And that's a recipe for disaster, in my opinion. So having exposure to a little bit
of everything, keeping high caps in your portfolio to lower the volatility risk. And then with the
small percentage or profits you have left over, go play in the trenches, go play on chain. There's
tons and tons of opportunity in
there um and that's where you're going to get those you know those big wins but it should only
be money you know you're willing to lose now ladies and gentlemen i've gone up ahead and i've
posted a very interesting chart up above and i'll'll actually throw this to Big Hagrid.
I'm not sure how much time Big Hagrid has or Max.
Either of you guys can go first.
But look, another topic of discussion here would be Others BTC, right?
That is everything outside of the top 10 and their Bitcoin pair.
This is the Barracuda in the water.
This is the big kahuna of alt season,
right? Three phases in each cycle. First phase, Bitcoin dominance rips up. ETH BTC tries to find
a bottom. Very few altcoin opportunities. Second phase, ETH dominance goes up. ETH BTC starts to
rip. It's mostly an ETH denominated market, but it's more PVE, more opportunities in the market, and it's a lot more graceful if Bitcoin pulls back 3%.
You guys have seen over the last two years, or even if Bitcoin is chopping, if Bitcoin slides 5% while dominance is going up all coins uh get get sent to the haymaker and they take
they get taken out for a ride and they lose their shirt but thankfully we're in phase two and what
comes after that is everything else rallies and during this show uh that i've been doing with
donnie over the last few months we've been covering what happens after ETH dominance chills out right look at last cycle
ETH relaxed for a little bit things like Cardano ripped soul Phantom Luna all the old ones went
crazy right even the cycle before that right if you look at where ETH was at around like five bucks
ETH rallied from five dollars all the way to 400 while things like neo did absolutely nothing
there were very few altcoins but neo is one of the few that i remember from way back in the day
right neo didn't actually start going crazy until after eth dominance relaxed and ethereum for the
most part uh did most of its move for the cycle but But now we find ourselves in a very similar spot here,
except I think ETH dominance is just getting started here,
and I think that gives us more grace.
But nonetheless, the next thing to look out for, guys,
I put it up there, others BTC, barely looks bottomed out.
For all we know, we could have a double bottom retest.
You just really don't know if if if eth is gonna just
shred all the other alts to each their own but for the most part i think time wise it is bottomed
but unless this chart actually starts putting in some very very bullish structure goes above its
yearly highs i just can't really see how the bull the bull market could be over but if you guys open up the spaces
tab and then check above up on the nest you'll see all the posts that we're referring to highly
encourage you guys to engage with everybody's hosts here uh engage with louis post engage with
my post engage with whatever tucker and max are going to put up on the nest as it does uh help out
with more of a visual representation um i know space is a little
bit hard to uh curate some content for you all with uh presenting on the topics in which we're
discussing but feel free to check uh that up above so man um who wants to go next tucker or max
which one of you guys um wants uh wants to go first i Tucker or Max? Which one of you guys wants to go first?
I got you, Wabi.
I got you.
Oh, man.
The seven-foot, 500-pound giant.
Oh, man.
The eighth wonder of the world.
The menace from Kansas City, Missouri.
What is going on?
Hit him with the one-two puck mega cap tuck.
Brother, what have you got for me, man?
Welcome. Oh, my God. Welcome, welcome, welcome. puck mega cap talk brother what have you got for me man welcome oh my god welcome welcome the outfit this is now a presentation of alpha of real alpha i want you guys to imagine a river
wobby every time every time i think the intro is done you just keep going somehow
imagine every time guys to imagine a river you guys are gonna hear a steady stream
of information imagine a stream filled with alpha a river and it only flows one way haggard's way oh
my god so tucker tucker light up your uh light up your cigar pop up your ecliner man and uh give
us some alpha bro what are you seeing out there man oh man um
all right well i'm glad you brought up uh uh others btc right because i think looking at that
and looking at eth dominance is great but i mean it gets a little granular for me i genuinely just
like to look at bitcoin dominance if i'm being honest like and and kind of what i'm seeing is um if we and i i
was saying this to the discord earlier but like if we're able to get you know some movement up out
of eth and all coins through kind of the middle part of august um and see bitcoin dominance drop
a little bit more i think the inevitable spike in dominance that we see in September,
which I'm actually going to say kind of the opposite
of what Louie was saying about seasonality.
I think we're going to kind of snap back into place here a little bit.
I know the first half of this year,
the seasonality did not work out at all, completely thrown out the window.
But this summer was pretty similar to 2017 summer.
And therefore, I'm not going to fade the September bearish seasonality.
So this is kind of, I don't know.
My thought on Bitcoin dominance is like, if we drop again before the end of the
month we're gonna come in and we're gonna set a lower high right in september um if we don't
drop in dominance before the end of the month i guess the way i got here is i was like
do i think the actual pico top is in on dominance for the cycle right um
and at this point i do because i i do expect some movement up through august but
if for some reason that doesn't happen and we see dominance actually go up through kind of the
middle part of august i'm expecting a higher high out of Bitcoin dominance right which wouldn't be the end of
the world or anything but um I mean I September really is uh is is looming right like I really
would like to see ETH 42 4300 before September um just so we can have some nice areas to pull back into basically. Right. Like I just,
I don't want to see us just hanging out kind of weak at resistance going into September. Like that
would, that would not be great for me to see. Um, again, not my expectation, right? Like I do think
we're going to move up through August, but, um, you know, that, that would just be something to
watch out for. Right. But in general, if we're going to look more, you know that that would just be something to watch out for right but in general if we're
going to look more you know look out more than just a few weeks i think uh you know i'm kind
of torn i'm like are we going to blow off in q4 we're going to kind of stair step and have a
top in you know q1 or q2 next year like for me it doesn't really matter um i think we're going
to have a good q4 regardless um after september
we're gonna have i think we're gonna have at least a good october november um but i don't know i think
uh more and more the cycle is mirroring 2017 where we did blow off in q4 um you know the extended
cycle stuff definitely is valid right given the seasonality not playing out the first part of this year.
Like Tommy's talked about a lot, but I don't know.
I still think we have a quality key four,
but I'm just watching Bitcoin dominance into the end of August, right,
because I think that's going to really be telling for the others chart.
So you can get more granular and look at others dominance
over bitcoin and east dominance and whatever but i think i think keeping it simple for me and just
looking at bitcoin dominance has been has been helpful um but yeah that's that's kind of my
thoughts on uh on dominance there wabi what about tucker dominance man oh no bro when you when you uh go on chain uh it's it's
uh it's quite a journey you go on man if i don't know if people know this but like over the last
two years for whatever reason in august um i've usually come out with a narrative that plays out well.
And then Tucker does his own thing.
I think in 2023, I was mentioning Celestia.
When Celestia comes out, it's going to be a move.
And then Tucker followed that up.
And he offered the Discord some really, really good plays.
I think one of them was the the restate
finance that did uh tremendously well i know you also traded um some nfts as well from the bottom
and they pumped like 10x uh don't forget don't forget your own seasonality brother yeah that
that's happening that's that's uh that's happening wabi has q4 seasonality of his own
he usually goes on a 2020 yeah 2023 it was uh celestia and big time remember big time man that
was a that was a fun trade but either way we all kind of have like our own thing um and um And anyways, Tucker, do you think like this Q4 is going to be a lot bigger than the one in 2023?
And I say that because let's be real, right?
Last Q4, even though it was good, most of the opportunities were on Seoul, right?
There wasn't really much to do outside of that but however in q4 of 23
we had all the vc coins a bunch of memes went crazy um there were even things to do on say
and sue you remember when like some of us went on say and got some like shit coins there
quite the time right there there was more abundant
opportunity compared to uh compared to last year right and then of course after all that a lot of
us rotated into pepe and that was an amazing an amazing uh an amazing start to uh to the bull run
like the true true bull run because we all know second first half of uh 23 was more of an echo bubble but um what are you thinking man as far as like
the setup that's uh that's in front of us man you think it's going to be bigger than 23
yeah i do i mean i don't think it'll, I think it'll be bigger than 23. I don't,
I don't know that you can really compete with the alt season that happened in 2021.
I mean, that was pretty ridiculous, right? Like we printed trillions of dollars and a lot of it
found its way into crypto, but I don't know. I think you're gonna more so mirror and i'm gonna harp on it just 2017 right
where like you're gonna have bitcoin top um and then you're gonna have your you know kind of your
blow off for all coins um so i don't know i think like i was saying i said this in the discord
earlier too like the longer bitcoin takes the top the better right like if we're just going to keep stair-stepping um then you know that should be if
all coins are just kind of going to get dragged up like that's fine right um but they usually
don't go crazy until bitcoin tops that's just that's just how it is unfortunately um but yeah
like if we're going to look back at history,
that should be Q4. Right. And then you kind of get your all the season in January. Um, but again,
seasonality somewhat skeptical of it. Um, if we get a bear September, then I'm going to say
seasonality could be back. So, um, yeah, we'd, we'd just like to see some moves up before we hit that September period to feel better about where we begin October, basically.
But yeah, that's kind of how I see the current setup.
I'll pass it on over now to Max, the Charles Xavier of all of CT.
Max, what's going on, man?
I hope you know who Charles Xavier is, brother.
I'm pretty sure we all know the X-Men, man. But brother, great to have you back on. What are your
thoughts on the current conversation, man? And feel free to throw anything our way, man. Great
to have you up. And yeah, bro, what have you got? Welcome, welcome wabi wabi i i feel like i know that name
charles xavier was he like a in a marvel movie or something yeah yeah he's like the professor
of the x-men like he takes them in and you've took you've taken all of us in you've taken us
from being or you've taken us from being orphans on ct and you've given us a home at bb man so i found my
my team of superheroes and i gave you a home is that it okay got it well i appreciate that man
i'm happy to be charles then that's a pretty cool name anyways but yeah i like what louie had to say
i like what tucker had to say um I think things look pretty promising. You know,
it's like there was this little cool off that we had over the past few weeks. You know,
ETH ventured up. I mean, it was really a couple weeks ago. ETH ventured up to, you know, 3850.
And we really haven't had too much of a pullback. And
I've been more or less advocating that we wouldn't get some crazy pullback from here. Because, you
know, the point of origin of the sell off that we saw in December and January for ETH was really
around like 30. It was like 33 to,500 was kind of the region of distribution.
And in a matter of a couple of weeks, I mean, ETH rocketed from 2,500 to 3,800 flipping that
point of origin of the distribution from, you know, December, January, which ultimately led
to ETH having a horrible, horrible correction and really crippling the altcoin market.
But I was saying, like, I don't really think we're going to get too deep of a pullback here.
You know, like we're going to get a little oscillator correction, more or less, like however you want to frame it.
We're going to see RSI kind of reset and price just kind of buoys around where it is.
You'll see some smaller altcoins give back a little bit more.
But I really don't think ETH has too much to go here.
I mean, furthermore, I think the local low is in.
I think there's a really good chance of that for ETH here.
But, you know, the big theme that people have been so hung up on lately, and for good reason,
it can be frustrating, is like, oh, that's nice that Bitcoin's had a good cycle. I don't own
Bitcoin. Okay, and that's great that ETH is finally moving, but I don't really own any ETH besides
having some for gas. I own shit coins. I own the beta, and the beta's not moving, right?
on the beta and the beta is not moving, right? So it really just comes down to this. And I've
talked about this before. So forgive me if you've heard me explain this. If you take a look at the
high timeframe Ethereum chart and you zoom way out, go into last cycle all the way through present,
we've been rejected from 4K like seven different times. Okay. Not
once, not twice, like literally seven times. And every single time has led to an absolute cascade.
We go to 4K, we reject, ETH gets pummeled, all the beta gets pummeled harder, right? 4K has been
an absolute nightmare. I see it when I close my eyes at night. It's like
it's tattooed to my eyelids. I see 4K and it causes me nightmares, okay? 4K has been horrible.
So to everybody that's like, well, you know, why is my beta not moving? Why are my shit coins not
moving yet? It's like's like well why would people start
moving down the risk curve buying ethereum beta or even just like crypto beta doesn't even have
to be on eth as the king of the altcoins ethereum is approaching a multi-year resistance level that
has led to seven significant sell-offs every single time it's hit 4K.
I'm telling you right now, as soon as we flip 4K, we're not looking back.
I know Tucker was talking a little bit about the seasonality.
I'm kind of indifferent about it at this point.
I think it's time to be long right now, and we'll see what happens as we get into September.
This entire year has been a fade on seasonality, so I'm open to it sinking back up.
But I don't really, you know, it'll be back of mind, but like I'm not really too concerned about seasonality.
Like I think this cycle is just a complete like.
It's just a combination of like a meat grinder range with like little spurts of upward momentum and like it doesn't seem to have anything to do with the calendar at all which is a little bit different than what we're used to
um so i don't i'm not gonna be overly stubborn on like the time right it's more about like the
structure and the conditions and it's bullish right now and if things shift you know going
into september that's fine but i would agree It would be much better for Ethereum to be comfy over 4K, probably having
even made a new all-time high. We're probably going to sweep the previous cycle all-time high
and then reject for two or three weeks and then start ripping from there. And maybe that's your
September correction, which I think that's basically what Tucker was, was suggesting is like, get up towards that
all time high, chop above 4k. We flip the mega wall of supply or resistance at 4k into support.
We confirm it with a little bit of a range. And then we blast off like when that happens,
when ETH is chopping above 4K,
the rotation that you are going to see into your shit coins is going to be biblical.
It's going to be historic.
It's going to be unreal.
It's going to be so much fun, guys.
Unless we get rejected for like an eighth time right here.
Okay.
But I really think this is our time.
I think this is it.
I think ETH is going to finally get through
the great wall of supply at 4k and when that happens we're going to go through probably a
quarter to maybe two quarters of really frothy altcoin conditions bitcoin dominance is most
likely topped i think it looks pretty weak if we do get some weird september correction then
i guess we can talk about you you know, Bitcoin dominance holding firm.
But eventually the sucker has to roll over a little bit.
It's going to give something, you know, the magnitude of the alt season we're going to see.
I agree with what Tucker was saying, like probably not going to be equivalent or it's not going to be very reminiscent of 2021,
be very reminiscent of 2021, where it was just a QE and ZERP driven, you know, like retail friendly,
you know, a friendly frenzy where, you know, we got stimmy checks and like 0% interest rates.
And it was just a free for all where everybody was stuck at home gambling.
I don't think it's going to be like that. But I do think you're going to see an on-chain wealth effect take form that will probably be more sustainable than what we saw in 2021, where it's not going to be such a crazy, like, manic, every single day, just like craziness.
just like craziness, but you probably are going to see a lot more consistent upward, you know,
price action with these. Again, the story of the cycle has been like range and then up quick and
then range and then up quick. And you're probably going to see Ethereum do something like what
Bitcoin has done, where when it finally blasts through the stubborn resistance that's early for Bitcoin, like in early 2024,
was kind of crippling it, kind of right around when the ETFs started trading.
When we finally start trending for ETH and Bitcoin dominance is going down, which means ETH BTC is
likely going up, you're going to see Bitcoin dominance dropping. You're going to see ETH start forming these like big vertical accumulation type of ranges in price discovery. And every single
time that happens, you're going to see your altcoins start to rip. It's going to be this
little song and dance. It's going to be really beautiful. But it has been a long and frustrating
journey for all of us. Sorry, I got a call there. hopefully you guys can still hear me but i i really am
optimistic about what eth is doing here it's you know ethereum dominance looks more bottom than
i've ever seen a chart look bottom um ethbtc looks really ready to go eth is just chop solidating
under 4k funding is not outrageously high so people that are trading you know uh
trading futures are not being greedy at 4k right now funding's actually relatively tame
oi has more or less been like cyclically reset for the entire asset class cumulatively looking
at like bitcoin eth everything we, huge, huge rinse outs.
I mean, Doge gave back, shed all of its open interest. XRP had a nice reset, like all the
majors BNB, you know, not down to like it's, I guess, April lows, but like what I would consider
to be like a total reset, like a washout. And ETH is still at 4K. What I'm trying to say is
there's a lot of runway above us right now. Like we're not seeing the same signs that we saw in
what was the first top for ETH. It was like March of last year, we topped at 4K. Then June of last
year, we topped at 4K. And then December, we topped at 4K. And now we're at kind of 4K-ish
again. The previous three tops at 4K that happened last year, we saw unbelievably frothy funding
and major open interest spikes towards 4K. People really trying to force their hand at 4K,
getting ready for a breakout, only to see a huge positional unwind.
People were paying a major premium to try to be long ETH on leverage at 4K.
I am not seeing the same signs this time.
We are not in a vulnerable position like we were in March, June, and December of 2024 for Ethereum.
So it's actually a really healthy spot to be in,
I would argue. And we'll see how long it takes to finally blast through. I mean,
in typical ETH fashion, I've always kind of joked about this with Tommy Snorlax up here. I think
maybe he's just a listener right now. I can't tell. Sometimes Spaces doesn't label people correctly for me. He's a great
futures trader. And we always kind of joke, like, if you've ever traded ETH on leverage,
it has a way of kind of punishing you. And it also does this thing where it just like,
it'll put in every so often, it'll just put in like a 200.5 minute candle, you know, and it just it just goes and it just does its thing.
Ethereum, like liquidate all bears, clear them out, break through 4K, close a weekly candle up
there type of moves that just kind of ends this just godforsaken range that we've been in for,
you know, four years now in one swift five to 30 minute candle. And I think that's probably
going to be the nature of it is just like a slow
kind of ramp up and then a famous Ethereum meat stick, like a hundred to 200 point candle
just to end it once and for all. And then we're going to start seeing some, some big rotations.
So I don't know, that was a lot of waffling, but like, I think things look really good. I'll share
one chart that I posted earlier, just because I think this is going to be important as well.
Not necessarily for, well, let's just, let me put it up in the nest first and talk about it.
I posted this so we could talk about it.
Okay, check that out, guys.
If you want a little bit of a visual, I know some people are visual learners like myself.
But this is really, really clear me um what we're waiting for so this is the level on the
chart that you have to look out for for bitcoin so just because we're really focused on like
eth and altcoins doesn't suddenly mean that bitcoin doesn't matter bitcoin matters a lot
okay um bitcoin cannot be distributive here bitcoin cannot be rolling over here we need
bitcoin not necessarily like
ripping in price discovery, but we need Bitcoin pushing new highs. If you look at the chart that
I just posted, you'll see that kind of sideways histogram on the y-axis right there. It's blue
and red if you zoom in on it. And it just, it's hanging out right over price. Okay. It's at about 118 K give or take.
All that is right there is the volume from the previous range that we were in, or arguably the range that we're still in. And since we're below it, that means that that was
distributive. Okay. That was, you know, either long, it was a combination of buying and selling
up there. But ultimately buyers lost control, sellers took
control, price buoyed down. And everybody that bought at that 118k level, that big, you know,
histogram spike that's hanging out like a peninsula right over the chart at 118k. Anybody who bought
at 118k is basically contemplating at this point, like, okay,
now it's maybe time to get out at break even or cut my losses here on this retest.
Um, and if you shorted at 118 K, which again, that spike right there, the point of control
is the point in which the most transacting occurred within the range.
And if you shorted there, you have a decision to make, like close
the shorts, which would walk price up or defend your position and, you know, either add more,
keep pushing it down, you know, I don't know, figure it out. But you've got a decision to make,
right? So we're kind of revisiting that zone, which is major resistance for Bitcoin.
If Bitcoin rejects from that level, we're probably not going to see
ETH put a meat stick in above 4K. I think if Bitcoin can flip 118, that's precisely when
you're going to see Ethereum meat stick through 4K. It's really that simple. Like Bitcoin back
above 118, it doesn't even need to go crazy. It just needs to be back above that supply.
even need to go crazy it just needs to be back above that supply that's it then we've had a clear
shift of market structure to the upside um probably as the traders would call it like a po3 which you
have your range manipulation down and then kind of structural reclaim to the upside and we'll
probably get some expansion and new highs but that's it Like if you wanted to ask me point blank, like, okay, when do alt start
firing? When do we see the next ramp up for ETH? When Bitcoin gets back above that point of control,
that supply at 118 to 119, that's it. Like once that happens, things are going to heat back up.
So I would say just maybe exercise a little bit of caution here just in case but Bitcoin does look good here like reclaim the monthly open ETH looks
really good structurally leading Bitcoin I'm pretty excited like I'm optimistic
so I don't know we'll see how long it takes the timing is obviously the tough
part but I'm not seeing any like major signs of froth here like like we've kind of grown
accustomed to um when we were at the same place for eth all of last year so i'll cut myself off
there because if not i'll just keep going forever but end monologue back to you wabi
max i i think i i forgot to tell you man, which is a phrase that many people either dread or they get happy to hear.
This time is different.
This time is different.
And the reason why I want to point that out to you, Max, is because I think this is the longest time that Ethereum has held up a higher high and higher low structure.
Ethereum has held up a higher high and higher low structure.
Just essentially since this bull market began for Bitcoin and the FTX lows in November of 22.
Since that time frame, any time that ETH BTC has rallied, it's been for no more than two weeks.
If that, if that, ETH BTC has been bottomed for many months now and this is the first time that
we're rallying to these levels where if btc is in a clear uptrend towards 4k and man i i i i can't
believe what i'm hearing max am i more bullish than you, brother? Is this the first?
No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, to understand what I'm talking about with the funding component.
So for those that,
that have followed me for a while,
I'm going to tweet a picture and put it in the nest.
Okay. Cause this is,
this is incredibly important to understand.
let me just draw this out super quickly here.
Okay.
everyone,
everyone show some love to all the posts up on the nest.
Show some love, like, retweet, comment, all that good stuff to all the posts that are showing up above, guys.
Yeah, what Wabi said.
Let me, give me just one sec, because I want to make it unmistakably clear, like, what's happening here.
unmistakably clear, like what's happening here. So let me just, let me just draw out a couple
things. Cause I want people to understand like the relationship between, you know, ETH and
its posture, uh, you know, within the market, at least from like a funding perspective,
cause that's where like a majority of like the, the volume the volume is really coming from, is there's so much influence that the futures market has on what ETH is doing.
And I want people to understand, for those that have followed me for a while, you know that my pride and joy of this cycle has been playing altcoins know, playing, playing altcoins, looking for beta to
majors, things like that. So I want to show you guys a BB, a BB terminal chart. This is a feature
that, that our dev ed made, which is just absolutely fantastic. So let me just tweet this out super quick I just finished it all right
where's my x account here okay so I'm gonna post this because this is really really really
revealing guys like this is what I'm trying to explain so give me one second in the meantime um tommy if you want to come on up and talk some shop
feel free to do so i'll send you an invite to speak
i also sent louie an invite to speak if he wants to come on up
same thing with Keck.
I see him here in the audience as well.
All right.
Let me...
All right.
And this is totally free, by the way, guys.
So you can use this and recreate this on your own.
I just tweeted it.
I'll put it in the nest.
I posted the link, too.
Again, this is literally free.
We're providing this for you guys for free.
So if we're not here and you're like,
boy, I wonder if like we're getting frothy
and the top is in, should I sell my shit coins?
Well, you can go here and you can actually look at it.
So this is free.
You can go look in the nest.
I just posted it here.
So Ethereum funding.
So what I have here on this chart is I have the Pepe chart.
And then I have Ethereum global funding below.
Okay.
So Pepe is obviously Ethereum beta.
Right.
It's an ETH token.
So when ETH tops, Pepe tops.
When Pepe tops, Andy tops. When Andy when Andy tops Wolf tops they all top to get
they all move together right when ETH goes up your shitters go up right so this is what I was
trying to explain to you guys where I'm like the last few times that we've been stuck at these
stubborn levels we've seen incredibly elevated funding for not just ETH, but everything. This
just so happens to be ETH. So people are concerned about Pepe here looking weak. And I'm like,
you actually shouldn't be. This is a huge arbitrage opportunity. What you should be
recognizing right now is people are not going to move down the risk curve in a serious manner.
With ETH pressing up against the great wall of supply that goes back four years and get burned for a seventh time.
They're waiting for confirmation.
The market is clearly smartening up.
We are not seeing the same type of elevated funding that we've seen in the past.
Look at the ETH funding below the Pepe chart.
The top will be in.
It will be time to sell your shit coins
when that funding becomes frothy again
and starts to spike again.
And you can overlay this funding on anything.
This is, again, this is a free function.
If you wanted to chart Pengu on Sol,
you could put up the Solana aggregated global funding
below a Solana shit coin, and you could do the exact same
exercise. This is a metric that I believe only we are providing here. And again, it's 100% free as
a resource for you guys to use. This is what smart money is looking at, right? This is what they're
looking at. The relationship between the beta to the alpha and the level of froth the degree of froth that's
occurring in the alpha so this is what i was kind of trying to explain here is like we're not seeing
froth right now guys like we are seeing a very very healthy healthy healthy uptrend right now
that i think probably continues for quite some time. So we'll see when that
funding gets frothy, but like you've been holding this long, like don't sell yourself short just
because like you're afraid to lose money. You know, like, are you playing to win or are you
playing to not lose? Make your decisions based off of the data, not the emotions, right? We,
this time is materially different. And that's what I'm
showing you guys is like, this time is in fact different. Like here's the data. Funding is very
muted. Yes, we've had a lot of, you know, open interest hit the tape, but not an unhealthy amount,
right? So anyways, just wanted to give that as an example and plug our terminal because it's epic and it's totally free.
So you have no excuse not to use it.
Order execution is coming soon.
It's going to be unbelievable.
Again, 100% free.
We're like Oprah.
Like you get a terminal, you get a terminal, everybody gets a terminal.
And you get these cool features that only we offer here.
Like I'm pretty sure no other like dex charting software or app out there
allows you to do things like this so anyways this was the visual to kind of back up all the
yap before so just wanted to throw that out there wabi hey max can you go a bit in depth
on to what uh order execution is say like i'm someone that uh only uses phantom wallet and i use a
jupiter or i just use phantom swap or what if i'm just using a metamask like what what what
what can i do within uh within uh bb terminal once um on-chain so it's probably going to be
about 60 to 90 days um it's being built out right now but basically what we're doing is
It's being built out right now.
But basically what we're doing is you're going to be able to like just connect your wallet and trade.
But the cool part about it is like it's got cross chain compatibility.
So like you can swap any asset into any asset seamlessly without having to like chain hop manually and like, oh, I only have like, you know, money money on eth and i want to buy something on soul
i'm gonna have to like you know bridge it quick which is not that tedious anymore like it's
basically like a built-in like d bridge right here into terminal so you can just like you could go
from any token to any token seamlessly instantaneously um again totally free it's going
to be built into terminal here. I would say within
between 60 and 90 days, it's in the works right now. So that's coming very, very soon, but it's
going to be seamless guys. Like for those that like trading on chain, like there's going to be
no better place to do it. Well, like the combination of these custom scripts and tools on here,
and then like the seamless, you know, chain hopping without having to do any tedious bridging
or anything like that it's going to be pretty revolutionary honestly so yeah that's kind of a
quick summary we'll we'll definitely be talking more about that um when the time comes so pretty
soon guys if you want to keep up with everything bb terminal as uh we've been discussing over the few minutes, I want to keep up with all the updates that are developed in-house by the team.
Go on ahead and check the BecauseBitcoin profile.
It should be up there within our bio.
But talking about scripts, talking about what we were discussing with the terminal, I'm sure CryptoData is going to love that, man.
Data, what's up, brother?
Welcome to the show.
How are you?
Hey, what's going on, Wabi?
Appreciate you having me.
And yeah, great, great talk by Max and everyone here.
A lot of good data.
As you know, I love using data, removing emotions.
And there's been a lot.
And so I'm going to go over a lot of fundamental stuff, and I'll cover a few technicals as well.
But I agree with everyone here thinking that August will be bullish.
Now, we were talking about seasonality,
and we're actually following 2020 fairly closely, minus one month. And in 2020, you also had a green
August with a red September. So I'm of the same opinion that September will be red as well.
But just going over some fundamental things, obviously the interest rate cut, everyone is
looking forward to that. Like you're saying, even on PolyMarket, it's near above 80% certainty that there's going
to be rate cuts.
And so you know how much the market loves to front run.
And so I think there's going to be a lot of front running with that, which we're already
starting to see right now.
So it could be more or less a sell the news events in that mid-September when rate cuts
are announced.
And then a few weeks after, then we see the follow-up pump afterwards.
So that could be something as well to keep in mind. But there's a lot of stuff actually that's happening over the
next few days that is going to be a bullish catalyst, in my opinion, for the market. So
I've been looking and I've been making posts on my ex account about August 8th being an important
date. And a couple of reasons for that is because we have federal governor Kugler who's resigning
August 8th, which will give Trump the opportunity to shape the central bank.
So that's going to be big.
And also speaking of seasonality, August was historically bullish in 2013, 2017, 2020, and 2021.
And so that's something I think many people haven't even looked at, which is something good to know.
And then also, speaking of last year, we had a crash August 5th,
which was due to the carry trade unwinding, followed by a pump on August 8th.
So, again, history doesn't always repeat, but it often rhymes.
Then you have the full moon, August 9th.
Anyone who's into moon phases knows, you know, they work 60 to 70% of the time.
Full moons are bullish.
New moons are bearish.
So that's also something to look at.
And then also anyone who's into numerology, 8-8, a period of heightened energy for manifestation and spiritual growth, which a lot of people are
looking at that as well. So it's a lot of things happening tomorrow and over the next few days.
So something I'm watching and then going over to the more technical side. So Bitcoin has been
hovering around its weekly trend line that it's been at since 2017. So the high that we made in 2017 in December,
if you draw a line from there all the way to the current highs of Bitcoin,
you can see that, you know, it's basically marked the highs.
And when we broke above that, which was around $114 to $115K,
that's when we saw Bitcoin rise to $123K.
And now it actually pulled back to that trend line.
And actually, it kind of bounced off of it as pulled back to that trend line. And actually,
it kind of bounced off of it as support or it's breaking above as resistance, however you want to look at, depending how you draw it. But this weekly close for Bitcoin is going to be very
important, as well as the weekly close for Ethereum. Because if you look at the Ethereum
chart on the weekly and you draw a trend line from its previous high in November of 2021 and you
intersect it with the high of December 2024 at $4,000 and then right now where it's at around
$3,870, it actually forms a nice trend line resistance there. So we can close above that
level, call it if we can close above $3,900 on the weekly, then we definitely could see some nice
follow-up with that. Obviously,
4,000 is level to watch, but that trend line is something I'm keeping an eye on as well.
So with all of that, as well as the data with Trump announcing about signing into law there,
being able to invest crypto into various retirement accounts, which is something that's
already announced a couple of weeks ago, but I guess now everyone else is finding out about it. So that's something as well. It's
going to cause a lot of capital to flow into the market. And then also comparing Ethereum versus
Bitcoin, you have the ETF flows, which Ethereum had inflows the other day, yesterday, where
Bitcoin had outflows. And so that just confirms that these institutions are still focusing on
Ethereum. And now Ethereum is the asset that's going to start outperforming, right?
You're denominating Ethereum versus Bitcoin, which is something as well.
Max was talking about how Ethereum dominance basically bottomed out, ETH BTC is starting to look good.
And so there's a lot of good things that are happening.
And I do think that we're still going to have a massive run.
I don't know if it's going to be as massive, obviously not not as 2021 but trump has also talked about using the tariff savings i mean i think the u.s so far has saved
over 30 billion dollars and also all of those are going into effect i believe tonight um for the
rest of them so that's something he's talked about giving a i don't know if you want to call
this stimulus check but like like a you know rebate kind of thing where each us citizen is going to receive i think 600 was
around the range he was expecting so it's not gonna be like the covet stimulus at 1500 but
that's going to be something that we could see some more inflows from that a wealth effect as
max was mentioning as well and then also you have the strategic bitcoin reserve and them announcing
an accumulation plan right where they announced that they would support a delta neutral strategy, whether that's via tariff savings, gold certificates or what have you.
That's another catalyst we still have.
We have BlackRock filing for their staking ETF for Ethereum.
That still has yet to get past, which is going to be another thing where if you search up the term rehypothecation, basically using your Ethereum and
restaking it over and over to get more APY, although you set yourself to slashing risk.
But at the end of the day, that's going to also create kind of like a leveraged capital
in and of itself.
You know, hopefully it's not something like three euros capital where they over leverage
themselves there, but that's going to be more reason for a further pump in the future.
So I do think that we're going to have an extended cycle.
I know that previously someone was mentioning it's either three, six or nine months down the line.
I'm leaning more towards that nine months.
Obviously, we'll probably have a top near the end of the year, as we usually do.
But I'm looking for around April to May of 2026 and Bitcoin around $250,000, which that's a number that's been mentioned by a few
accurate players I've seen in the past. And so I do think that's very likely. But yeah, I mean,
obviously you have to manage your risk, but I do think that this cycle, quote unquote, is different.
Wabi, like you were saying, there's just a lot more metrics in place like ETFs and other
institutions and countries and nation states that weren't really a major player the past few cycles.
At least they're more visible now, we could say that.
So, yeah, I'm excited for this cycle and I'm excited for the opportunities that's to come.
You know what else happens in May of 2026?
Jerome Powell officially leaves.
There you go.
Another one.
Exactly, right?
So wouldn't that be something poetic?
I mean, he leaves and then that's the absolute top.
Man.
I think he's going to go down as a legend.
If he can just, like, pull his head out of his butt
and actually, like, get serious and start cutting rates and not actually adopt the name too late pal, I think he can go down as a legend, man.
He did all those rate hikes without cause.
Who am I kidding, bro?
Those rate cuts destroyed other countries, man.
countries man it destroyed the uk you had forex crises the bank of england had the bank of
It destroyed the UK.
You had forex crises.
england had to met had to send a letter to the federal reserve for him to stop raising rates bro
um but he didn't cause as much damage as volker uh volker really did a number like completely
shreked um the uh the american economy but ultimately man it it had to be done it had to
be done that post world war ii market was uh was it was it was insane i actually think from like
a growth perspective i think that's where crypto is right now like post world war ii um and that's
just like extremely extremely extremely bullish like we already have uh the digital money narrative uh
most divisible currency all that stuff uh ownership of your own assets right um censorship resistant
and now we've already now we're at a point where you have uh uh tangible digital goods right like
as funny as people want to make it out to be
and poke fun of it, pudgy penguins.
Like, they're actually attracting consumers.
They're building consumer apps.
And then, of course, you have programmable money
with stable coins.
And really, Ethereum changed the world.
Bitcoin, of course, is the OG.
And then Ethereum came in with that layup.
If you think about it, dude, think of how many lives have been impacted and how many
careers have been transformed because of this industry, man.
Even though every few years there is some sort of blowout, right?
Last cycle, you had Luna.
The last cycle before that, you had all the BitConnects and schemes and all that stuff.
And there are some rumors, right, that next bear market, you're going to have Athena Labs go under.
Because they do have a stable coin, which is basically Luna 2.0 in an indirect way.
But I think Tommy can allude more to that.
Probably cover that a bit more granularly.
But there's blowups in every business cycle.
You had Lehman Brothers, a business that was one of the premier institutions in this country for decades upon decades.
And many others as well.
But no need for a history lesson here.
But you're probably gonna have a
few more blow-ups in the next few decades but long term we all know btc is going to be here
eth is probably going to be here solana is probably going to be here um i'm just not too
sure about like what's the fourth one yeah i think you typically need another altcoin to uh survive
another cycle like it has to survive a full bear market and actually be
something in the next bear market you look at ETH right for those that weren't like around in the
2017 cycle and early 2018 ETH was predominantly used via for ICOs right you send your ETH to an
address it gets collected in a pool, and then you get
whatever token that was fundraising. And these tokens had little to no vesting schedules.
So you get your token, you're up like 100x. And at times, the exchange pumps it straight to a
billion. You had things like ICX, Aon, a bunch of those other OG tokens.
But then what happened? 2018, the market blew up. Ethereum went from $1,300 down to $80.
And then some people that facilitated these ICOs, like this one guy from Substratum,
which was trying to build the internet firewall of Canada, something like that.
the uh the internet firewall of canada something like that um i think canada was going through
like some censorship stuff at the time they still are but substratum wanted to build like a layer
two internet an internet sublayer whatever and he went to prison for using or using um funds that
shouldn't have been used for those activities i I'll let you guys connect the dots.
But Ethereum went down to 80 bucks and all hope was lost, right? And it came back,
came back via DeFi. And we all know what happened with DeFi, right? Luna, a bunch of other platforms
as well, a bunch of other chains. And now we have a new narrative, right? Ethereum has come back
from the dead twice and same thing with
solana solana went through the most battle-tested narrative ever ftx going to zero some people
legitimately thought sam bankman freed created solana like retail some retail actually think
so you had retail that actually thought that spf created soul. And without FTX, I mean, Solana at the time
was branded as dead, right? And look at what's happened now. Solana has had multiple rebrands
at that time. You had the Solana phone come out in the spring of 2023. And then after that,
you had some on-chain stuff going on and then memes with Whiff now you have pump fun and now you have a few other
things as well in the works with these etfs so you gotta ask yourself what's that next asset
right i don't know if it's hyper liquid i certainly don't think it's bnb or any other
exchange token um i don't think it's sui either that chain is like two years old and there's still
nothing to do on it but we'll see we'll see and
of course you have like your doges right and you'll probably be able to buy uh pepe at the bear
market lows and it probably goes to all-time highs after that uh but as far as like chains like
actual chains it's very difficult very very very very difficult um but uh man i don't really have
anything else to throw at you guys unless you guys want to speak about something in regard to the market that we haven't yapped about yet.
I mean, I guess crypto data, I could ask you, right?
What are your thoughts on things like others BTC?
on things like others BTC,
it really seems like everyone is only now looking at ETH BTC,
but they're not really looking at ETH dominance.
And now we're probably going to go through a time period
where you're going to have ETH outperform a lot of these other assets, right?
I'm talking about high caps, right?
I understand on-chain has its own anomalies.
I'm a shitcoiner.
I love going on-chain.
And for the most part, they're not really a part of the same market, right?
Bitcoin dominance was shooting up.
But if you only looked at Bitcoin dominance to make your moves, one, you would have missed Pepe.
to make your moves. One, you would have missed Pepe. Two, you would have missed the easy mode
centralized exchange altcoin season from Q4 of 23 and essentially multiple, multiple opportunities
that yielded 1,000, 2,000, 3,000 plus percent gains. And now we find ourselves in this situation,
right, where now Ethereum finally bottomeded out against bitcoin but we really need
the rest of the all coin market to catch up specifically on its uh on its bitcoin and also
eth pair man so what are kind of your thoughts on that with uh with those pairs and how do you kind
of see uh that playing out going into next year yeah great, great questions. So for myself, I'm talking about dominance charts.
I actually focus on USDT dominance a lot. And you can combine obviously USDT plus USDC.
But USDT dominance has been something that's helped predict a lot of these altcoin pumps.
And basically, you know, just measuring if people are getting into stables or getting into alt
slash Bitcoin. And right now, if you look at USDT dominance, it's actually breaking a key support level
on the monthly and actually even on the weekly more so.
And that's something I'm watching very closely because anytime USDT dominance breaks down,
we should have a large run in alts.
And that's something that, you know, if we keep going down here, then we could be
continuing until 3.8%. And so that level is one I'm watching. And then going over to Bitcoin
dominance, that's another one where, you know, I do think, and I agree with Maxwell and a few others
that it has topped. I mean, we had that bearish divergence on the RSI that ended up playing out
from June 23rd. And so that was a good one on the weekly chart and it's continuing to play out,
right? And the next major support level of Bitcoin dominance is 60.4 cents. And so that's an area I'm
watching very closely. We can continue to go down until that. And then obviously we'll see what
happens with that since the stock RSI is oversold.
But the RSI still has a ways to go at 44.
So in my opinion, I do think that Bitcoin dominance is slowly breaking down.
I think that, I mean, it's, you know, the strength has been very impressive, to say the least.
I mean, we expected Bitcoin dominance to break down months ago, And it just any retracement bounce and just
kept going up. Right. And you could attribute that to various various reasons. I mean, we had
Sailor T-wopping into Bitcoin. You had MetaPlanet T-wopping. Now, at least we have Sharplink Gaming
who's T-wopping into Ethereum. And so that's a little bit of pressure there. And then obviously
a lot of the ETF flows have switched over from Bitcoin to Ethereum. And that helps. Right. So,
I mean, finally, we're having this shift to where, okay, now this may be the final time where Bitcoin
dominance is topping. And I do believe it's topping. If you look at the monthly RSI and
stock RSI, that's curving to the downside, looks very good for much lower. And so in my opinion,
it's just a break of 60.4%, just call it 60% and we'll see alts rally. And so that's something I'm
watching. Now you mentioned others BTC. Honestly, I don't look at that as much. I probably should
because I know that I know Benjamin Cohen, he's very big on looking at the others charts and
specifically comparing that with Bitcoin and others. So I mean, looking at the monthly,
it looks like it bottomed out. I mean, the monthly is looking good. The weekly, stock our size overbought right now.
So we could have a little bit of chop before full sending, I would say by mid-August.
But I do think that others BTC is very close to bottoming out if it hasn't already.
Just because, I mean, most alts have been bleeding pretty hard.
And I've had a lot of people DM me recently saying, you know've lost a lot of money my ults are bouncing I know you're mentioning Max was mentioning about why isn't Pepe
running versus ethereum are my ults still bleeding and again it's just there's still a lot of room to
go right and so they haven't topped the OI hasn't gotten frothy I mean funding rate is still good
so yeah I think it's just having patience right now and seeing that rotation and seeing a lot of these charts bottomed out on the monthly shows you, okay, there is some momentum that is slowly building. We're obviously going into Q4, which is historically bullish.
And I think that it's just tested a lot of people's patience and resolve.
And it just, you know, a more testament to the fact why you should focus on these indicators and focus on overall fundamentals to show you that, hey, if we just look at seasonality wise, Q4 being bullish, I think that eventually we will start to see all these turn to the upside.
And I think it's very close to we're very, very close to a bottom if we haven't hit it already.
You know, I remember there was a discussion that went on within the BB Discord. very close to we're very very close to a bottom if we haven't hit it already you know i remember
there was a discussion that went on uh within the bb discord it was during an afternoon call
and they were asking tommy tommy help me snorlax help me is the summer going to be choppy is there
going to be nothing to do here and tommy said chud jacks will be blown out.
Total Chud Jack annihilation.
Tommy, brother, I'm sending you an invite to speak, man.
The people want to hear what comes next,
but Chud Jack, total Chud Jack annihilation is basically,
you're going to see some volatility. You're going to see some price action.
Have you ever seen the Chud Jack meme?
The one that says, when you look at the time, ever happens yes yeah that's a classic yeah yeah and i mean look at what's happened man
we've had a melt up in the stock market um the s p 500 had a rally of almost 1600 points
and in basically three months that's. You didn't even see that during
COVID. This is the fastest recovery back to new all-time highs in stock market history,
and that is without Zerp and Kiwi. So you got to ask yourself, what happens when you have
monetary policy shift from hawkish to neutral? something based off of that and that's what occurred during
the second half of 2017. during the first half uh i i do believe the broader markets like asia and
stuff like that outperformed uh u.s u.s companies and it wasn't until the second half where the fed
stopped raising rates they tried to crush trump's economy during the first few months of his term, and they were raising rates.
But then, you know, when they stopped doing that, went flat, market went, market outperformed extremely well, man.
alt season that the market had in q4 of 2017 was a lot more aggressive in the alt season that uh
occurred from march of 2017 all the way up until august and we had things like tron going from like
20 million to billions cardano did like a 200x neo went from five bucks to 200 actually not yet
yeah i'm pretty sure five bucks to $200, something like that.
Many other tokens as well.
But that's pretty much all I've got today, guys.
Max, is there anything else that you want to talk about before I wrap up here, brother?
All good, Wabi. Take us out.
Okay.
All right.
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Take care, guys.
Bye-bye.
Bye-bye. Thank you. . All right. Thank you. Music Thank you.
