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Market Talk- Down only!? BTC makes new lows!? Where is the bottom!?
Recorded: Feb. 4, 2026 Duration: 2:59:01Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent discussion, crypto enthusiasts analyzed Bitcoin's declining volatility and its implications for future price movements, projecting a potential rise to $180,000 by 2030. The conversation highlighted trends in market sentiment, the importance of strategic partnerships, and the need for innovative fundraising approaches as the crypto landscape evolves.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. so Thank you. I can't remember anything. I can't tell if this is true or true.
Deep down inside I'm feeling a stream stream This terrible silence stops me
I think now that the world is through with me
I'm waking up I can now I see
That there's no voice left in me
Nothing is real but pain now
Oh, my friend, this I wish for dear
Oh, please God, wait for me
Back in the room, it's much too real
It feels like that I'm always real
Can't look for you or to reveal
Look to the time when I live
And put the curtain sticks in me
Just like a wartime novelty
Tied to the shoes that made me be Cut this life off from there
Oh, my pretty star, I wish more dear
Oh please God, wait me I'm so excited. Oh so Gracias. I'm out. Darkness imprisoning me All that I see, absolute horror I cannot live, I cannot die
Threat to myself, fighting my own big fear
My mind has taken my sight
Taking my speech, taking my hearing
Taking my arms, taking my legs
Taking my soul, getting through life in hell digging my speech so so音楽 so so yo what's going on guys man oh man i'm getting some flashbacks i'm getting some flashbacks
from q1 of last year but before i touch uh about anything on the market, guys, I want to welcome you all back to Market Talk.
I hope you guys are staying safe out there, first and foremost.
But outside of markets, I hope you're all doing okay.
I hope you guys are all having a fantastic Wednesday or Thursday.
I'm feeling fantastic. I'm feeling fantastic.
I'm feeling great.
I hit a PR yesterday on T-Bar Rose.
I hit nine plates.
I'm trying to get to Ronnie Coleman's 12 plates,
and that felt really great.
That felt incredible honestly uh i also rode
the 200 pound dumbbells which um i'm not really a dumbo row guy honestly if anyone here has ever
done dumbo rows it's kind of like it's kind of like if you've ever done burpees, right, it's like the weighted version of that.
It's like the only, it's like the only exercise that's annoying as burpees.
It's long and it's dreadful.
But anyways, that's how my day is going.
I'm taking a rest day.
My labrum is actually getting a lot better.
I didn't really feel much pain. But
yeah, man, you have to keep yourself entertained when the market gets like this,
especially when you see equity markets kind of being semi-distributive. You're even seeing sandisk now on a correction um yeah that thing was just an absolute monster
and uh you guys heard it on monday's show like if we're getting excited about sandisk now
you're kind of late to the party and if you do buy um it's probably going to be like hood
as it was last year crosses that hundred billion dollar mark.
And you miss the majority of the move.
And yeah, I do think it could go higher, but you kind of missed the massive majority of the move over the last few months.
And there's really, there's nowhere else to hide outside of like a few select stocks that are, that are, I think, what was it, Coca-Cola, Pepsi, stuff like that.
We also have energy as well.
That's been, that's been a place where you can hide.
But crypto specifically, there is officially nowhere to hide at all.
We had BTC make new lows.
ETH made new lows.
Solana is now putting multiple hourly closes below 100.
And, I mean, if you guys have been active over the last few years,
really since FTX imploded,
Sol has led every single move as far as all coins go it has been the primary signal
for this cycle just as eth was through 2019 all the way through early 2022
man it was the it's the main all coin that that signals all flows and soul has retested the same level where it did
in early april of last year and there is no signs of life on this thing and you have to wonder
under okay if you have btc starting to close below the march 2024 high what are the possibilities
of a major volatility event similar to august of 2024 april of 2025 where it's just one massive
candle gap down and that ends up being the bottom. Now I do hope that's the case.
I really don't want this stuff to be dragged out.
I really, really, really, really don't.
As a matter of fact, like I think worst case scenario,
this thing drags out a little bit as it did in Q1 of last year.
And hopefully we start to see us a select few alts actually bottom out before majors
which we did see um we saw things like far coin and a few others bottom out in march i think pepe
also bottomed out in march a couple of weeks before uh before btc did I mean, we also saw ETH in 2022 bottom out
before the broader market, right?
But there's nowhere to hide on chain.
All the base AI coins are just getting hammered.
It's like Solana base right now.
The Penguin coin can't even catch a bid i think the
only thing that is kind of being set apart from the market is white whale um which is i mean that
that that ticker is an anomaly to be frank um but again you, the market is in hard mode. If you've predominantly been on chain like myself and truth be told, I think I'm, I'd
rather just wait until soul is actually floored out, man.
Um, we'll see if soul gets that reaction at $80.
that reaction at 80 i know uh that's a level where uh evan has stated where they you actually do want
to see a bounce there otherwise like it's it's basically nothing but air on soul until 35 40
um and you would want to see that happen in one flush rather than this like
And you would want to see that happen in one flush rather than this like slow dragged out thing.
And we do have some people on CT actually receiving cease and desist letters from Binance.
People are starting to rebel against Binance.
And for good reason, right?
You have that honestly, this dumb Seifu fund claiming that, hey, we're going to buy a billion dollars worth of Bitcoin.
And if our entry goes further 20 percent in decline, we're going to average down with another billion.
since that post, we're down over 10,000 on BTC.
We're down over 10,000, which is honestly, you can't make it up, man.
It's like a story.
And now CZ has his comments turned off.
And mind you, this is all with the S&P, like, barely down from its high.
like barely down from its high like i i don't even think we're over 100 points below from the
s&p's high which is that that's that's classic uh we also have mstr making new lows um i wonder
if that thing is gonna is gonna start trading below 100 that'd be really interesting but this kind of price action
is just it's it's like a big flush might be incoming um this kind of price action we've
seen it before we saw in the summer of 24 before the big drop um i think we even saw it in q2 of uh of 2022 shortly before 3ac went under um you had the
broader market specifically in all coins start to have a small recovery shortly after Luna
and then 3ac happened and Celsius and all that stuff happened all at once. And I remember that day, but we did have ETH bottom out.
So perhaps things like Hyperliquid will bottom out before the rest of the market if it's not already bottomed.
And same thing with Solana.
Same thing with Solana.
thing with solana there's just zero bid on this thing man and um i took a look at the monthly
There's just zero bid on this thing, man.
on bitcoin and this thing has not had a green month in a while the last time we saw this kind
of price action was in 2022 so that's why i'm kind of saying like hey if if if this is going to continue right and we're going
to be uh having what is it like now four or five months on the red usually one that happens you see
a big final flush down and um I think that's one thing that markets under Trump are so used to
this very short time period of drawdown and then the gnarliest
V reversal that you've ever witnessed and I think that's going to happen once the market bottoms out
but I got Trader A up here or A Trades I think he used to be called by Trader I know he's been up
here a number of times we're going to have some of our other speakers on momentarily.
And it's going to be a great show.
Lots to discuss.
We're going to have Bitcoin AI guy on.
We're going to have Small Cap Sniper and some of our other regular speakers, Matt, Naka, the usual bunch.
We have Google Earnings coming out shortly in the next um few minutes we uh we are in earnings
season and the market right now just does not really care i mean amd down almost 20 today
um you still have things um like microsoft i know that's a stock that some people on here
have been saying to pay attention to and you know that thing say it's down like 20 no no 12
um year to date and it's not really showing any signs of life. But again, the stock market, the stock market, the crypto market, it's kind of like two different stories.
You had this insane low cap and AI run right after crypto topped out.
And crypto is just in this weird no man's land when it comes to broader markets you have the Nikkei
making new all-time highs earlier this year the euro stocks and and I was able to believe hey
crypto is going to need a massive flush
um for volatility to come back in this market it's just a no bid right now but uh either way
before i pass over the mic if you guys want to go ahead show some love to the space you guys
already know what to do click the spaces tab once you guys do that just go ahead hit the like button hit the
repost button does a number of things helps bring the show more more out into the algorithm helps
bring more brand awareness helps more people get in here and all that stuff if you guys want to
come up and talk some shop feel free to hit that request button and i'll bring you right up just uh open the spaces tab to the bottom left there should be a mic and
uh i'll bring you right on up and thank you all so much for uh showing up to market talk today
whether you're here listening live to the audience or you're listening to the recording and uh we're
gonna go ahead and and talk um some markets today
hey what's going on bro it's been uh it's been a couple weeks how are you
yeah i'm doing good i think right now honestly this is a pretty everyone like pretty predictable
market we're literally in a bear market and we will see bull rallies just like in the bull market
we saw a bunch of bear rallies so right now if you haven't sold or taken profits, I mean, I'm on camp with my buddy
phase two, like this, this is cooked.
Like we're over leveraged in the stock market.
There's a, the economy is not as good as, you know, macro wise, in my opinion.
So I feel like, you know, we're going to see a lot of regulatory shit in crypto.
So with the regulatory is going to come that nasty volatility that we're going to see,
but I'm on board of just, you know you got some green but take it but i just trade perp right now i'm not even in anything spot i've been out for a minute so i'm biased to the bear
side doesn't mean we won't see nice legs up though what are your thoughts on that you play like on chain at all or you just stick to like
majors and perps just majors and perps gee yeah i feel you man it's it's not looking good out
there man and i think that that macro shoulder on soul is extremely grim man um extremely grim but yeah this this this is a a bear market um yeah i've
been having fun shorting all the breakout seats for right now psychology wise i think if you've
been in markets before um like technicals like do you notice like from a technical standpoint like
stuff starting to look good and then immediate dump so i'm just setting up all my plays on any breakout i see on like a 15 one hour four four and 12 and the weekly look like shit so
everyone that should tell you that any pump in the smaller time frames really should be shorted like
the money is going to be on the short side right now at least temporarily until we get a better
catalyst i don't think bitcoin's done necessarily i still think bitcoin's got a like high chance of
revisiting 100k plus just because there's tons of liquidity on the upside.
And market makers aren't going to let that shit slide for, you know, I don't see it happening.
I could see some type of catalyst to push us up, euphoria.
And then, like you said, massive dump because I don't think this last dump was the bear market dump just yet.
Yeah, it's like when you see price grinding up, like we saw in Q4 of 23, it's like you know something is about to go down or go up at that point.
And we did.
We were hanging around like 31, no, I think it was 32, 33K after that coin telegraph tweet.
And then we just broke out in a massive, massive, massive way.
What are some of your targets, man, as far as like Solana and Ethereum, man?
I think that's like, I's the uh the elephant in the room
yeah see i don't really pay attention to solana i think it's cooked like i don't even have to look
at the chart like just tokenomics simple math there's too much supply out there from the pump
fund token so what happens when supply chills and it's not being moved if there's not enough volume
that matches the buys it's not going to be able to get back anywhere near it was, at least not this cycle.
I think Solana has absolutely cooked this cycle.
I don't even see it returning to high hundreds, in my opinion, unless there's like another
meme frenzy.
But I think Solana is going to get hit the hardest compared to everything from here on
out.
But ETH, I think, I don't know, I think we're going to revisit at least like 1500 and then
from there, because a higher low, at least right now, everyone would start throwing out their charts higher time frames like this is it
and a higher low would set up the perfect uh opportunity for a strong bounce and a big ass
bear trap yeah bull trap i mean my bad yeah yeah um if seoul 84, it basically erased every single bit of price action, um, over
the last, over the last two years.
Um, you have 84 and then you've got 65.
Those are like your last two big points.
84, 85, basically the mid-80s and the mid-60s.
Yeah, I see 80 and then 50.
Say that again?
I don't know if I'm for it to...
You cut off. You said UC80 and... I think spaces are doing what they're known for sometimes,
which is rugging.
But if anyone wants to come up, feel free to do so.
I'm just waiting for some of the other guys to come in. We got some guys
What's up, bro? What's up, man?
This this this market I tell you man like
understand dude like like markets also have downturns but like
When the market turns like that i'd rather just i'd rather
just um step away and also like how the hell's monad green on the day that's like yeah so weird
there's nothing to do on that chain like there's literally nothing to do on that chain and you have
team members leaving um the ecosystem before there's even like anything to do on the chain like i think the only
thing you can do right now is lose money on random memes that top out at like 100k and then some some
nfts which i mean you you can get nfts anywhere you can get nfts on cordano you can get nfts on on harmony i think harmony is still live harmony one
you know you can get nfts on uh on on all grand like i haven't heard about all grand in like
four years five years dude right so uh man yesterday you said something on the show and i was thinking the same thing too
and like okay i i did i'm not wrong because you know i've had the conversation with my friends
i had a few friends that called me uh two of them they're not into on chain they mostly buy their
crypto on exchanges and they're like yo i like hyper man this thing seems strong it doesn't look like the market is going to affect
hyper and it reminded me the same back in 22 with cosmos when they were calling me asking me hey i'm
buying cosmos man it looks like the market is not affecting this one here you know and it's like
there's always one that's going to at least look strong at the beginning of the bear market.
And for me, it's looking like hyper liquid is just like Cosmos back in 22.
The one thing I do want to say, look, I sold a lot of my crypto back in April of 2025.
I got out right after the 10-10.
You just couldn't make it up.
It was drawn perfectly.
It shows you that the four-year cycle is here.
And that 10-10 was just a sign of like, yo, it's bear market time.
It just takes weeks and months for people to realize that it's a bear market
or admit that's a bear market just like a bull market, vice versa, you know?
And 1010 was just a sign.
And I know we're blaming it a lot on this and that,
but at the end of the day, man, I'm going to stick with my friend's theory.
It's all about the OG Bitcoiners dumping on our assets.
They control the supply.
You control the supply, you control the price action.
They're dumping and they have their times.
It's always that fourth year, the fourth year.
Not even institutions control Bitcoin.
These are the OGs that are dumping on our assets
and it's time for them to take profit.
You can't blame them.
They got in at $1, $2, ten dollars. They got to sell, man.
And that's just a theory that's always been around, you know, my friends.
And they look at wallets. These guys are really good at chasing wallets, being police.
And it's all about, you know, the OGs taking profit.
As for me, you know, I'll end the plan with this.
It's not about how low bitcoin
is gonna go it's when do you want to get in for me it was 78k i went down to 74k i started dca now
back into bitcoin my guess i hate predicting i can't see bitcoin going on the 40k you know i
wouldn't be surprised you know uh we're in the four-year cycle it showed
proof that there is one so bitcoin has always retraced 80 75 so why not go back to the 40s or
you know i think the high 30s but my the question is when are you going to start getting in and dca
and i started already at around 74 74 K
Yeah, and then you gotta look at the stock market as well
Because I
I'm not even looking at all coins like I'm not even touching them yet
Yeah, you should
Because it's like if there is no bid on chain
It look how about this man?
You've had a bid on chain like it look, how about this, man?
You've had a bid on chain like over the last few weeks that's been spread out.
But the main underlying asset to bid those tokens, right?
Like Solana, Ethereum, like it's been no bid.
And like we discussed the potential for base to kind of turn into solana 2.0 and it did like you had um uh for the molt coin the molt whatever it was molt book um and we were talking about it on
the show and it's like bro this thing goes from like 8 mil to 110.
Like, dude, that's like Solana type price action.
Like it's a pump and dump if it's not going to be like gold, you know.
The price action across the board, across every single chain has like kind of fundamentally changed.
You have the same buyers and sellers across all chains now um and remember the solana
had a huge reset it went all the way down to eight dollars people are gonna panic
holy yeah i i think so i i think so i think solana is gonna have um not an eight dollar moment but
an echo bubble of that i think so
yeah a lot of people are gonna want to take profit from that price that they got in at eight
nine ten eleven i know a lot of institutions got in at 14 because uh when when soul went to eight
or nine there was a few uh you know big bunnies and they were like i want to see it yeah yeah yeah um the thing is it's like
here's the deal if soul is gonna go up right then that means hood is gonna go up
because hood is like how about this solana is like the tokenized version of hood and you look at their price
action it's almost it's almost identical man um like right as solana was topping out
uh like complacency shoulder wise right at 253 that's when hood was topping out um you look at when solana hit uh eight bucks that's when hood
hit like seven dollars a share like that was the the the exact bottom on um on uh on hood you know and then i i think to myself like
why would i buy a spot sole when i could just buy some hood leaps
that's what i say myself because if you're in the business of making money
and you look at hood which has a 70 billion dollar market cap
solana has a 50 billion market cap um so that's like a call it a 25 premium on hood
but then you factor in liquidity hood is probably a better play uh hood leaps if you think solana is
going to go on an uptrend then you just buy your hood leaps and then you offset those gains and you play on chain.
And we know Solana has, for every marginal buyer, there's always a marginal seller.
There's always going to be a marginal seller on Sol. They're more infinite because you still have the validator issue.
uh, the, the validator issue. Um,
and basically like to run, um, a sole validator, it's,
it's quite expensive. So there's always that cell pressure.
And until fire dancer comes out where it's going to fix those supply
supply mechanics, you're still going to have inflationary tokenomics on Solana.
mechanics, you're, you're still going to have, um,
And just to look, just to put things into perspective, right, so you guys can understand
how bad Solana inflation is, okay?
So the all-time high for market cap on Solana is 133 billion.
And we peaked at two 53. Okay. If Solana, if Solana, okay, just does a threex from here and goes to 150 bill right that would take us to about 270 right and
when solana peaked in usd value at 300 right its market cap was about 125 bill, right? So you're talking an increase in market
cap of like 20 plus 25 plus percent. Okay. And you'd be at all time highs for market cap
and you'd still be below its all-time high you would effectively need like 30
percent or by that time about 40 percent more in buying power for solana to reach an all-time high
that's insane like that is the real cpi people should be concerned about you know what i'm saying
is this because of the minting no no this is because of the the
inflationary tokenomics right so yeah yeah yeah the the sole inflation is real and and
and you have more you have unlimited sellers so i said this on yesterday's show you need
yesterday's show you need a new cohort of unsophisticated buyers to come up and buy
this thing from another sector and i think it's going to be ai um people that have made money on
on nvidia on sandisk i mean sandisk i mean that's, that's a pool of like tens of billions worth of liquidity that can come into this market.
But that money is now, I mean, it's rotating in the stock market, right?
been up here over the last two weeks talking about coca-cola and coca-cola is up like 10 plus percent
over the last uh over the last few um trading sessions you know and so amgen say what eight
today lily 10 today oh yeah you talked about lily lily yesterday sandisk down 15 didn't we say yesterday it's time
to lighten yeah yeah it's not 15 110 yeah cannot see the writing on the wall can people stop only
saying when i'm gonna dca in instead of when i'm gonna dca out what's the over under on bitcoin
before people say what did you see when you said to get short i'm waiting for people to
say to me you you thought it was a buy at 75 it went to 126 you got short why doesn't someone say
what did you see that you're writing it down and that maybe that it go much lower than you could imagine. Instead of right now, crypto is down 43%.
$1.77 trillion.
And now with Microsoft,
Microsoft is down over a trillion dollars from its high,
about to leave the $3 trillion club.
Alphabet announced they're going to increase their CapEx by $60 billion.
It's down after hours.
Qualcomm down nine.
Armholding's down seven.
These semiconductors are being dragged down by this tractor beam called IGV that has bid wanted.
And all you guys could say is, let me DCA on the way down.
There's not going to be enough low.
There won't be any money left. I'm going to have some perspective. This is not working out.
And this is with a weak dollar. What do you think is going to happen when the dollar follows its
natural trend since 2008, when it was 71, and it crosses over from 97.5 for its 12.5-year quarterly trend
to cross over its 50-year trend at 99, which is horizontal as a street sidewalk.
That crossover, I'm not like you guys, okay?
I'm not looking at Microsoft against Apple. I'm not looking at Microsoft against Apple.
I'm not looking at Microsoft against NASDAQ 100.
I do that.
But I also look at their volatilities,
and I look at cross volatility.
I look at the volatility of Bitcoin against its own volatility,
and that started getting me out September 18th when it peaked.
Okay?
I'm not doing what you're doing.
I'm looking at other places.
Does anyone want to know why things are going down and how low they might go
instead of, oh, I'm just going to buy more on the way down and blow every nickel I've ever made?
You've given up 43% of 18 years worth of hard work in three months.
And you want to buy more?
What the hell's the matter with you people?
Dave, half of us on this panel are not under that argument.
I didn't say, I'm not talking to you guys.
Okay, okay.
Oh, I'm not talking about you guys.
You guys are getting it.
I'm talking to people who only can think of,
let me buy a dip.
Let me lower my average price.
You have no idea how low this is going to go.
Silver spends 12 years in hibernation.
And then it spikes.
It gets the volatile, it's compressed enough.
You get a catalyst.
Kablooey, it spikes for a year or two.
Comes right back down to where it was.
Crypto's going to be the same thing.
It'll spend a decade in hibernation.
It's time to get out. It's time to get out.
It was time to get out before.
There's no floor.
Crypto is way riskier than Microsoft.
And Microsoft has no floor.
It's in a death cross.
It's melting down.
It was weak enough to take...
You took Sanders down 15%.
The semis are melting.
When is a price in the context of other prices
telling you something?
I mean, the work we do in volatility
told us Bitcoin was going down,
and we told everyone about that,
and we told everyone about silver about DePauw,
and silver volatility more than doubled,
and that was your signal.
You could see the money moving,
and we said on this basis with Wabi,
look at NASDAQ bear tail,
not NASDAQ bull tail.
Look at the bear tail.
Volatility has two tails.
You think it's going to just end?
The amount of money that's being lost?
Palantir down?
The people who own Bitcoin and Palantir
and that company we won't mention,
because we love you, Elon,
it's all working out.
And all you can do is say, I made money and I'm going to throw it away.
How do you do that to your family and your neighborhood?
You could lend money.
Give it to charity instead of throwing it to the people selling you this stuff.
On what planet does Solana have any price above $20 left in it?
The thing is down 43% in 10 months and 28 days.
Excuse me, three months and 28 days.
At what point do you say,
wait a sec, this is going down,
and it's going down faster.
How long before microstrategy is 99?
How long before it's 49?
How long before Bitcoin is below 69?
It is less than it was on November 10th, 2021,
adjusted for inflation.
So you had all of the risk and none of the return.
What's the matter?
Listen to the market.
And if you could get some help learning how to read volatility, you'll be way ahead of the game.
But even if you don't want to waste some time learning how markets work.
What?
Berkshire Hathaway.
That's one of the ones that follows our narrative.
It's up 2%.
Over the last few days, it's up 6%.
I mean, we saw this kind of stuff in 2018, right,
where crypto kind of just had a bear market,
but there was opportunities in the stock market
all the way up until early September, you know?
And I remember that's like around the time
where I got in the market
and people were kind of saying the same thing, right?
Like, oh, you know, the equity market is rallying.
So at some point, right,
the crypto market's going to follow suit.
But I think-
No, that's craziness.
When tech was leading,
there was enough money in tech to borrow against your tech to buy more crypto.
Tech is in free fall.
It's in the same space.
It's an ultra-risk asset.
So things like Lilly and Berkshire Hathaway and I think Walmart is also up on the day.
It's up from 80 to 128.
Yeah, and I know you mentioned Target last week, and it's up from 80 to 128 yeah and i i know you mentioned target last week and it's up
10 plus percent so like what what what is this you said that's that's called low beta right like
the what i'm saying is i want to ask you a question rationally david if you were following
hold on hold on okay look, I have the answers
to questions that people don't even know
how to ask
you can go ahead
that was from a movie, that was from
Fantastic Four
you know, my
pin tweet
October 28, 2022
we called for the greatest rally in 15 years
to last for years, not weeks, not months.
That was at the low.
After the Fed signaled,
they have to slow the rate of hikes,
largely because Citibank was about to go bankrupt.
Citibank was down to 4% of the value of their assets,
okay, relative, their stock relative to their assets. We ended up losing
Silicon Valley Bank. We lost Credit Suisse, but they wanted to protect them. So they slowed the
rate of hikes. People thought they were going to go 100. Powell was screaming going into Jackson
Hole, and they said, we're only going 75. And they signaled they kind of want to get lower later.
That was the bottom of the semis, the Qs, the spiders, Citigroup. And then on November
9th, it was the bottom for Fag. It went up 192% in 20 and a half months. If you didn't short
everything you could find, you're an idiot. You should have short Walmart. You should have short
Lily. You should have short Coke. You should have short everything because nothing was going to go up 192%.
So you made money on that.
You made money on the spread.
You shorted one, you bought the other.
Well, when you have a lot of leverage in the system and a lot of liquidity in the system,
you can hold that trade together.
And when you have people doing it in derivatives, shorting one call against another put, you're able to drive up what's working.
When you're losing liquidity, and we saw it in Bitcoin, we saw it in alts, the alt season just compressed into Bitcoin.
People were shorting Bitcoin to buy alts, That made sense, but then that stopped working.
So people were buying Bitcoin and they were liquidating their alts. They were unwinding
that alt season. And at the same time, volatility was coming down. So that meant that Bitcoin became
overextended. And Bitcoin, denominated in its own volatility, went to a 700, the highest ever,
by an incredible and a completely unsustainable way. MicroStrategy is melting down. It's dragging
down Bitcoin. Bitcoin's down 40%. Of course, it's going to drag down tech. These people are losing
money, hand over fist. And Grant will remember remember he's in your audience grant rule remember i called in one day and i said you know why you you know this guy sailor he's a he's a
piece of garbage and he said no he's a good guy and you know as businessmen they're both successful
so he didn't want me to insult him so i totally accept that but i think this guy a sailor who was
under sec uh um kind of oversight for 20 years because of some accounting challenges in the year 2000 with his
micro strategy company. They had to restate it. And now he's down 75%. He was down 90%
in March 10, 2000, over 38 days, 90.8%. This guy is leading the whole crypto space into the ground
because what he was doing is the craziest thing
that anyone's done in their life.
He's selling these preferreds
that are going to make people just want to short the stock
to hedge off the preferred like a credit default swap.
And all he's doing is just-
Sorry to interrupt, but it went down 90 percent in 2022 and it recovered
so that's not possible again you think no no it's done it's done the problem is he's got 100 000
coins the market will take those coins off his balance sheet and whether they want to buy them
or they just participants will just short that stock down to $49, which is now $90, or they short it to $25.
There'll be enough of a discount that other participants will buy that paper, short the coin, and take over the company and throw them out.
We had a 10x in the Fed balance sheet.
We went from $897 billion in 2008 to 2022.
We went to $8.97 trillion.
That liquidity needed to go somewhere.
Guess what, folks?
They've been getting rid of the liquidity.
So they replaced the liquidity by steepening the yield curve,
which creates a temporary condition where the banks look like they're creating money.
The problem is they're not going to be because this yield curve has got to flatten.
Everybody is steep the curve.
All the mortgage guys think the curves are going to stay steep.
They're not.
The adjustable rate mortgage went across 7.5% of all mortgages today reported were the adjustable rate.
That's the death of banks.
They don't want to sell a mortgage
that you're only hedging for five or seven years.
They want to hedge a mortgage
that it's a 30-year mortgage,
that they're getting paid the VIG
on the mortgage premium for the whole time.
And so we have a seven-year six,
seven-year fixed, six-month adjustable.
It's at 5.64, 5.59.
Five basis points lower is the lowest in multiple years.
The adjustable rate for the five and one, five-year fix, one, that's going lower.
And that's going to cause the dollar to go up.
And that's what's going to kill tech.
The dollar's been rising since November of 2008.
It was 71, 70.805.
And it's going up a 45-degree angle.
That's a 12-and-a-half-year trend line.
50 times a quarter is 12-and-a-half years. But it's 50-year trend line, which overcomes every president because it's 50 years.
It's like horizontal, like like a sidewalk it's at 99
and when we golden cross that baby the 50 over the 200 that's the death of liquidity and you
could see it today we're about to burst the seams nasdaq volatility is about to explode against the
vix the s p volatility it's at a trend line of super danger. And everybody,
or not everybody, but tons of people have been shorting puts to get exposure to the market on
every dip. They were massively overpaying for these puts. And the system has more short gamma
than at any time in the history of markets. And the price discovery to clean up that short gamma,
whether on the way up or down, is going to be historic.
And it's going to be on the way down, in my opinion.
And so Microsoft isn't going to hold.
Apple's not going to end up holding.
Meta and Amazon.
So that's mama, not go up.
Google ain't going to be able to handle it.
Oracle's not going to be able to handle it.
Broadcom's not going to be able to handle it. Oracle's not going to be able to handle it. Broadcom's not going to be able to handle it.
And Lilly is about to go into... It's in the trillion-dollar camp already.
Yeah, yeah.
That's a breakaway gap.
That's not an exhaustion.
How about Amgen?
That's why the Dow's up.
People are going to be buying the Dow and shorting the NASDAQ.
And it's going to be worse for tech because the NASDAQ now has Gilead and Walmart and Costco.
You know, but you take these non, like the NASDAQ 100 is not so bad.
It's terrible.
It's going to be a disaster.
But you take these FAANG.
Sandisk, down 15, Micron.
Okay.
It's a real, real problem problem it's a real problem and all everyone
let me buy the dip okay let hedge funds get out at higher prices don't be someone's whale exit
yeah the the queues are now um at new year to year year to date lows and
evan i i know you were looking for a correction.
Oh, you just left two things out. I'm sorry, then I'll be quiet.
We had two rate cuts.
We had two rate cuts.
Or did we have, you know, we had two rate cuts.
I think it was two, yeah.
Did we get
December 10th?
Yeah, he cut by
0.25.
Okay, so are we down 75 in the cycle?
175 cut.
So the last three did no job.
Last year they did a hundo, straight to the moon, Alice.
Ten-year flying, Bitcoin flying, NASDAQ flying.
This time they cut, and as I said, on our spaces, to our subscribers also,
when you get the mid-cyclecycle you're not going to get help
because you're not steepening the curve which is pure free liquidity you got to work for it you
got to make sure you cut enough to keep it steep enough they didn't and that's what's happening
eventually we get to the point when they cut the market tanks when they cut not just sideways and
then it takes that day or the next day 2%, 3%.
There's no play here. There's no more play.
It's over.
And people want to just buy the dip
and just burn all their money.
Imagine if you sold any of these rallies.
How you'd be making money
and you'd be at full capacity.
Now you're saying, when am I going to get
my dollar cost average so low that
I'm Michael Saylor Jr.? Try to open your ears and
your eyes. Try to find someone who's been right.
And maybe listen to what they say. David, I agree
with you, but you've got to have a plan. If you're selling right now, what are you going to put?
Are you just going cash? I've been saying for
a long time, buy what's working.
It's not that difficult.
I've been saying in here...
Okay, Berkshire Hathaway or XLE, which one?
Which one?
I'm not interested in energy.
Okay, Berkshire then.
I don't like Berkshire either because it's the financials.
I like Staples Healthcare and Utilities.
I like Main Street.
Main Street's going to have the last laugh of all these
financializers you're going to look at home builders look at um uh uh walmart costco uh
uh tj max burlington uh ross stores i'm just one investor and i want one or two tickers, ETFs. XLP, XLV, XLU.
All right, fair enough.
XLP first, XLU second, XLV third.
Yeah, I agree.
We are in a tension where people were funding NASDAQ, XLK, XLC for years, back to 2008 and they made they made a fortune they were five times as
juicy the returns on xlc and k as those so you had to do it or you're not and now it wants its money
back we're deleveraging the rise of these xlv xlu xlp is what's causing the decline of xlck and amazon it's
causing it it's not a byproduct it's not the money's not this stupid talk that oh it's the
the money is um what do they call it uh uh broadening it's not broadening it's getting
the money that it had that it should have had
people shorting this stuff they can't short it anymore and it's causing them to unwind the
leverage and now people are going to see these uh growth and income funds doing a little better
because you don't have the big hot tech and when you start to see more returns in these other areas
it's a multi-year thing.
And then it's going to be going into mortgages.
And when it goes into mortgages, it'll cause a flattening of the curve.
Today, Europe reported 1.7% inflation. If they didn't hate Donald Trump, if Kamala Harris was president, they would cut 50 basis points tomorrow.
But they have to keep it up
because they're desperate to keep reported inflation up
so that Main Street America is miserable
so they can go into the midterms
and maybe get them impeached.
But they're all...
Australia raised rates yesterday.
What are they doing raising rates on Australia?
They're a disaster.
But everyone's doing it.
They've been raising rates on Australia. They're a disaster. But everyone's doing it. They've been raising rates, right?
Yeah.
Man, Australia is like Jumanji,
if anyone has ever seen that movie.
You see some crazy animals,
like the spiders there are so big,
you can hear them walking on the walls, man.
They can eat you.
Yeah, it's terrifying. The it's it's it's it's
terrifying the market's closed bitcoin's at 73 the one-year low is 74 434 you have a clock now
the clock just turned on you need to get that to close above 74 74 434 by March 31 at 1159,
or you have a bearish engulfing annual candle,
and that's a year or two of selling pressure.
And what's that going to do?
And I don't think it's going to hold the 74.
So what does that mean?
It'll probably go down to the, my guess, high 60s,
and then you'll get some type of bounce or something.
And what if you don't?
Well, I think inevitably it's going to go down farther.
I agree with you, but nothing goes straight down.
Oh, I understand.
But you can see all the consolidations were completely de minimis.
Yeah, you took it up to 97 and changed when Saylor bought 23,000 coins,
which are now overpriced by $23,000.
You see that symmetry? Code reuse.
You notice that?
He paid 23,000
more for 23,000 coins.
What's 23 squared?
The guy is nuts.
And he's a desperate man.
So it's more nuts than it was. I haven't followed
Saylor 2 too closely, but it's more ridiculous
than it was last time around in 2021, 2022,
you're saying?
Yes, because back then we had money supply growth at an exponential clip.
We were at, you know, when you add 1,000% more liquidity to the system,
the last 10, you know, is more than all the liquidity we had in 2008.
is more than all the liquidity we had in 2008.
You know, when you go from 8 trillion to 8.97 trillion,
that's more money than we had all outstanding.
And that was the liquidity that was helping drive up Bitcoin.
Well, guess what? We stopped that.
We stopped that.
And now you can see it.
Like Samson in the temple pushing the pillars apart,
VXN and VIX are losing all cohesion.
And that means everybody that short the puts,
they're going to have a big problem.
Big problem.
They're going to have to buy him back
because the implied vol is going.
And the problem is too many people
don't even know what the VXN is.
They're looking at the VIX as a risk measurement.
That ain't going to go anywhere
because all this money going into Lilly and Amgen
and McDonald's and Walmart
and dragging that stuff up,
you're not going to have any realized behavior
in the S&P.
So what's going to happen?
You're not going to have any implied vol in the S&P.
So the VIX will stay contained.
And people are looking at that as a signal for crypto,
which is a free vol.
If you get this D vol,
Bitcoin vol,
to take out its recent high of 53, 54,
you're talking $10,000 in one day in crypto.
You're talking about 62.
You're talking about being down 50% on the year and losing over $2.14 trillion.
We're literally wiping away years in days, weeks, months.
And the whales are going to get leveraged.
Look at, we like Oracle.
We like Larry Ellison.
Look at his company.
It was $3.45.
What is it, $1.40?
You think he's going to be building out what he says he's going to be building out you think he's going to borrow what he's going to borrow we said yesterday
and days before that and in our spaces weeks before that watch what's happening in the decay
of software they're the customer we have all these memes mama no good you know we have uh
We have all these memes, mama no good.
You know, we have Jensen Wong instructing all of the MAG7.
We call it the decimated seven.
They're going down 90%.
It's an ecosystem.
I wanted to get your take.
Could you elaborate more on what you said about home building, real estate?
Are you thinking greenier for real estate this year?
I'm curious.
Massive.
Massive.
Massive.
You've got these companies trading at
six times earnings. Okay. They've got land, which is going to go up in value. You've got Trump
getting these Saudi golfers to offer 4 trillion of his $18 trillion investment. They're not going
to be wanting to open a pizza shop. They're going to be wanting land. They got to buy dollars.
They're going to buy land, lower rates rates let's just do the math this is the
real story folks we had a 1.39 buffett rule okay in 2000 39 percent more than the economy so the
gdp was 10 and a quarter trillion the stock market the s&p was 14 trillion the nasdaq was 6 trillion
the nasdaq gives up 5 trillion down to 1 trillion the s&P was $14 trillion. The NASDAQ was $6 trillion. The NASDAQ gives up $5 trillion, down to $1 trillion.
The S&P gives another $2 trillion.
And it produced the greatest year in housing of all time, the year 2002.
The greatest, $4.2 trillion in constant dollars.
We only got up to $2.8 trillion in both COVID and the GFC before the trouble.
That was $4 trillion above GDP. and you chopped off $7 trillion.
A lot of that went into housing. You know what we are right now? We don't do the Buffett
Rule anymore. The Buffett Rule says we're 140% above, 240. The S&P and crypto were
$70 trillion on a $30 trillion economy. So we're 2.4 times the economy or 140 above.
We were only 40 above back then.
In the GFC, we're only 5% above.
In 1929, we weren't even at GDP.
So we have $40 trillion looking for a freaking home.
And it ain't staying in tech.
It's not staying in tech.
You can wait till it goes down a lot more
you could ignore what the volatility markets are saying you could look at what is the greatest
distortion in my lifetime and although they didn't trade bond vol my old colleague he was the first
person to trade bond options um for goldman and uh uh it was on the floor of the of the of one of the exchanges earlier
i was looking at markets since the late 70s silver we have never had a greatest distortion
in the price structure of derivatives both it's vega it's volatility it's skew and it's the
greatest ever you have people selling calls and staples with no skew, even though it's at an
all-time high. That is incredibly unheard of. What that is hoping, and people say,
I'm so positive NVIDIA, I'm so positive on Microsoft, I will sell Upside and Skew for free
just to be able to get money to do a long shot and buy a dip in crypto or Microsoft.
It's going bad.
And we'll be burst.
And the problem is you're not going to get a lift in VIX,
and too many people are using VIX as a hedge,
which means they're going to have to sell that.
And that means the S&P is going to be stable.
It's the NASDAQ that's going to blow apart.
And that money ain't going nowhere. It's going
into mortgages.
We're about to make
another fresh low here
BTC, aren't we? How about Solana?
Where's Solana going? $2.25.
first.
I mean, I don't know, Evan, man.
Have I been talking about this since you let me start speaking? first. I mean, I don't know, Evan, man. Like, dude, I...
Have I been talking about this since you let me start speaking?
You always
were open, but the other places, they shut you
down. You're not allowed to speak heresy
that Bitcoin actually could go down.
We have liquidity accelerating.
Now that liquidity is collapsing
and we saw it because they did
it's catching up.
You cannot put this genie back together.
At least you let us talk about it.
We're about to have a daily close in a few hours.
We're about to have an acceptance back in a range that we were in almost two years ago.
Are we 3,000 above five years ago?
Are we 3,000 above five years ago?
69 on 11, 10, 21.
Code reuse.
Yeah, I think five.
November 10th.
November 10th, 2021.
I got a good question for you.
That was a little over four years ago yes four years and three months yeah real quick
what's the better invest in real estate right now or those three tickers you mentioned when you say
real estate you mean an actual house yeah yeah like an apartment or a house yeah are you gonna
live in red i don't trust anybody okay listen that's a leverage thing they're different for your liquid in cash what
if you bought in cash it's still leverage it's a leveraged asset all right there's a bid ask spread
in that thing of 10 you could get i i you know you have assets for real estate and you have assets
for for liquid assets you know i mean I mean, do I think SOX,
not advice, folks,
do I think SOXS,
which I sold between 46 and 52
during Liberation Day
when I covered my Bitcoin short
at $75.091.95,
sold at $46, $48.50, $52.
It's $2 now.
It's $2.
Is anything going to do better than that?
Do you think semis are the thing with software melting down?
How many miners are going to be giving back their machines
because they can't make it with coin at $50 or $40?
So you smart guys say, oh, it could go there.
I look at Bitcoin in decimals.
I've been saying you could lose one, two, or three decimals.
People think I'm losing my mind.
They don't want to hear it.
It's okay.
They can wait till it's down a decimal,
and they've lost 90% or 99% of their net worth.
Wait, wait.
What do you mean by down a decimal?
Or they can try to figure out why things...
What?
Sorry, what do you mean by down a decimal what does that mean sorry 90 percent oh my god okay
it added 9.3 decibels in 18 years it added 1.3 billion percent 13 million times in price it
started at less than a tenth of a cent bitcoin was worth twenty thousand,000, the entire Bitcoin, on its first trade.
5,050 coins for $5.02 on PayPal.
The Dow and the S&P 500 did go down 90% during the Great Depression.
They came back.
89% for the Dow.
There was no S&P.
Well, you could, SPX.
I mean, there was, yeah, you couldn't buy index funds back then.
No, no, it didn't exist.
The S&P didn't have a, the Dow Jones was down 89%.
That was the index.
That was the only index there was.
But you couldn't, you would have had to buy individual stocks.
No one bought like.
I understand.
But the point is the valuation was called the new era.
We came out of the World War I,
which my wonderful grandmother's brother was killed in war.
He's buried over there.
He was born in the west end of Boston.
They named a square after him at 20 Stanaford Street,
right next to the Mass General Hospital.
The soldiers came back.
They brought the Spanish flu.
The country went into a voluntary lockdown,
not involuntarily.
Nobody got punished for going to work.
A lot of people died.
The economy contracted 7%.
We started coming out.
Inflation was surging.
The economy was flying in 2021.
They put some tariffs on to slow stuff down, to raise some taxes.
Then they put on, those are the emergency tariffs.
Then in 22, they put on Ford and New McCumber,
slowed us down to the perfect calibration.
Stock market starts to run, but things are slowing down.
So Calvin Coolidge on 226.26, okay,
which is coming up on the6.26. Okay? Which is coming up on the anniversary.
It'll be 100 years in 22 days.
That's for the tax cuts
of 1926.
I sent a speaker invite
to small cap sniper.
Let me ask you,
if say Bitcoin goes down 90%,
can it come back and eventually succeed or dude i don't
think it'll stay down 90 i think it'll go worse okay so you're saying it's going to zero then
you don't think it's no i i think it's going to a million or more after it goes down 90 something
percent that's what you're saying silver fell 92 and there's a lot of utility to silver and it's
and it's mature for 5,000 years.
I think Bitcoin just went up too much.
It's going to go down.
People will short the volatility
until they squeeze it down to like a currency,
and it's much more than that.
And then it will start lifting up
and everyone's going to be short the volatility.
It's like when it just came out
when it never existed before.
Everyone was functionally short the volatility
because it didn't exist.
It excites into existence.
The volatility jumps to like a million percent.
And when I say million, I'm being literal because it went from zero to one.
And then, you know, you had reported vol at 170, which is an 8%, 9% daily move.
daily move. That's in 2021. Go back to the original days, right? It was 600 vol. And so
That's a 2021.
Go back to the original days, right?
It was 600 vol.
they're just going to drive the volatility down. All these Ibitz, people are just going to be
selling the calls against it, right? B-I-T-K, W-N-T-R, people are just going to short the
volatility against it. That's why Michael Saylor's got no shot, because his business is selling
Bitcoin volatility while everyone else is doing it, so there's no value in it. Same thing with the banks. Banks sell volatility. That's all they do.
Credit spreads are tight. Login spreads are going to tighten, and the curve is going to flatten.
They got no business. They could be agents, but they can't hold the pay.
David, let me ask you this. I don't know it off the top of my head, but how much did the UK's
stock market crash during the Great Depression? It was obviously less than the Dow Jones, right? I'm curious because that was the world
power at the time. That's probably a better comparison. Well, after World War I,
we started to... because Europe was really destroyed a lot in World War I.
In World War II, we became dominant, but after World War I, we were
symmetric. We were considered equal to the UK in that window.
Yeah, yeah, okay.
I agree, yeah, but they printed money
and they went off the gold standard during the 1930s.
We did not, and their stock market did not go down as much
as far as I know.
That would be interesting.
Yeah, because that's Ukraine inflation,
and this is the problem.
This is the thing I'm trying to teach people.
This is a thing it's not easy to understand it's not easy to comprehend but because of mortgage volatility
which is a 13 trillion dollar asset unlike equity it functions differently but it's short volatility
like equity one thing can happen and an output happens and the same thing can happen and another
output happens. So people think cutting rates always adds liquidity. They are mathematically
incorrect. So that's why people, Pavlovian, buy the market after a rate cut and we explained
last year you could do that. Take your own advice, beat your your advisors but our expectation is you cut rates things are
going to flip they're going to run they're going to go bananas we said mid-cycle once the curve is
already steep you're not going to get that effect and you could look look in the chart september
17th we ran till october 29 october 29 was the peak and if if Sam Allman wasn't bullcrap-ing people
and software cats at Oracle saying,
we've got a $300 billion order book,
look what happened to them.
$345 down to $145.
So without that, we wouldn't even have risen
from September 17th.
But we did, and we're straight down since then.
October 29.
Doesn't matter.
And then what's called policy equivalence, it's like
gravitational equivalence. If you're
on planet Earth standing on a scale,
you feel 9.8 meters per second squared,
the scale pushes up against
you, it says you weigh 150 pounds.
If you're in a rocket ship
in deep space,
and the ship starts to accelerate 9.8,
you'll weigh the same. You won't know the difference. When Powell cuts rates and inflation
is falling, you're not getting anywhere. When Powell cut rates and inflation was stable,
that's what happened in 2024. They cut September 18th, November 7th, and December 18th
because inflation was stable.
And they cut, they steepened the curve,
they added a lot of juice, a lot of money supply.
But by policy equivalents, we have falling inflation.
And how do you know that?
The two-year is at 255.
Excuse me, 355.
We have nominal GDP of seven.
That means we don't have nominal GDP of seven.
It means we don't have growth at 4.3.
We have growth at about 5.3 or 6.
And inflation is probably one and a half.
The point is when you cut and the market goes down,
it means you didn't cut enough. When you don't cut and the market goes down, it means you didn't cut enough.
When you don't cut and the market goes down, it means you should have cut.
When you cut and the market goes up, it means you didn't need to cut.
We're now in the stage, the middle cycle, where we cut and eventually it goes down.
And if they cut, it won't help.
They'll need to cut a lot.
It's a mock-up.
Go ahead, man.
What's up, brother?
What's up, brother brother good to be here um yeah man
look i think that we're starting to see the rotation um you know google i mean i was saying
this before on a different space before google had their print um i don't see let me see what
they're trading at now they're up a couple up a couple okay yeah i mean they were down seven they increased their capex to like i think 40 around there 120 to now projecting like 175 to
185 david what what do you think about that oh they're going to be down within a week or two
they'll be below 300 it's over they can spend all the money they want. It's not going to add $1 of revenue.
David, can you say, look, I need you to take a sip of water,
maybe take like three deep breaths,
and just scream at the top of your lungs and just say that it's over.
It's over!
Yeah, you know what I'm going to screenshot this so I can have the time
step
I have to make a meme
you know what you want some memes
I'll give you some of my memes
A B C E D E
you're going to get some of my memes
my people put these
things together beautifully you're gonna see these okay this is uh this is posted uh now
we're gonna swing it up i know prometheus like that one. Okay, look at those. Look at those.
Tell me what you think of those.
Let's see if I got any more.
Okay.
Okay, what do you think of those?
Did you send that on the nest? yeah yeah it's up in the nest yeah
i have whale exit i have mama no good decimated seven okay um a b c d e accelerating bitcoin
covet decimal evaporation the covet money that caused bitcoin to go from 12.6 to 126, it's evaporating.
Man, that was a good call on Lilly, by the way, David.
Like that is a mega cap name.
We have two in the trillions now.
We have two low beta in the trillions.
That can absorb a lot of passive money.
Yeah, and just to put things into perspective for the people listening, the move that you saw on Lily, a name that most crypto people haven't even heard of, that would equate to like a 50% candle on the day.
Wait.
It's a $100 billion ad.
It's a $100 billion ad. It's a hundred billion dollar ad.
It's a Solana.
I think it would equate to like Ethereum being up 50% on the day.
That's like a good comparison.
How about XRP?
It's XRP.
It's more than Solana.
Oh yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
What's being treated better by the capital markets?
Lily, Amgen, Coke, McDonald's, you know, kind of Main Street things.
You drink your Coke, you have your McDonald's, and then you go take a Lily injection.
It's like what we said yesterday, right?
I think most people in crypto, they just want to make a substantial amount of money and then live off of Coca-Cola and McDonald's dividends.
And they should have listened to you yesterday and sold all their crypto and gone over.
Have you seen Apple today?
What happened to Apple today?
It gave up all its gains. It's over. Yeah. It's over. People like me have been. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. Over. me have been... Over. O-V-E-R. It's over.
Get over it.
I've been saying it's over to Santa Barbara. Take these beans and print them out.
Now, I've been in Berkshire Hathaway, some gold and silver.
I've been recently getting more into energy.
But...
Yeah, but so all four of those aren't going to be long-term winners.
They're good for now.
Oh, yeah.
When the dollar melts up...
Yeah, I'm not planning on keeping them more than another, like, six to eight months.
Yeah. Oh, no, they won't last that long. What do you think?
Four months, man?
I don't know, but when you see the other stuff
go up faster, don't you want to donate
a little of the capital that's working
less well to the stuff that's working better?
I will. I will.
That's all I'm saying. Just watch what's working.
And after May 11th, the new
high list will work again, because Trump screwed you on the the new low list the new low list isn't going to have anything because of the
liberation day uh plunge what happens when the liberation day plunge cycles out on may 11th
you're going to see you're going to see the new low list dominated by all this software and other stuff.
And you're going to see the new high list, low beta.
But the problem is guys like you and Hyperlink, they put Microsoft on one of these places.
You could get 200 times leverage on Microsoft.
They're going to take this Microsoft through $399 and $299 and $199.
They're going to lean on the stuff.
And what they're going to do is they're
going to put that money and they're going to drive it into amgen and am going to amgen is going to
use their big fat juicy share price with trump saying i don't care what you do as long as you
don't charge more for the drugs and they're going to vacuum everything and they're going to be a
soft bank of biotech and they're just going to be able to scoop up the drugs, and they're going
to get a trillion dollar valuation from 190 over the next, because that's what happens.
They'll find reasons why they're going up. They're going up because of so much money
that's automatically investing. And it's leaking out like chronic venous insufficiency,
pooling around your ankles. There is just no reason to stay in tech. None other than
you like the rearview mirror instead of the brick wall right in front of you. There's a cliff there.
Notice it. Why can't you give 5% of your money, 10% of your money to a basket of things that are
going up? Is it such a sin? You got to have all of your money
in the stuff that stopped working four years ago?
You get money market returns with heart attack volatility.
It's insane.
Matt, what are your thoughts on the price action
we're seeing in the markets today, man?
You have the queues.
I mean, I'm kind of today man you have the queues um i mean i'm kind
of shocked at the at the at the way the queues just retracted all of its gains and just in just
a week of trading man last wednesday we were at 6 33 now we're here at new year to date lows and
you know i look at q1 of 25 and it's bringing me deja vu you're the master of price discovery look at price discovery
in the vxn you're going to see people buying those puts and rolling over put shorts your crowd your
crew that's smart enough to exit from bitcoin only okay watch it yeah puts are gonna get bid I shared up in the nest um you know we can we can all
speculate what's causing uh the sell-off and and what might be the cause uh what might be driving a
uh a bear market in 2026 but one thing is for sure like you can see it on the S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell. You can see the loss of levels,
the lower lows, the lower highs, RSI falling off a cliff. It looks eerily similar to
2025 and sell-offs from previous years. Now, the good news is,
and sell-offs from previous years. Now, the good news is, I mean, a negative 10 or a negative 20%
correction is very healthy and normal for indexes. I mean, they happen as frequently as once a year.
It doesn't mean, to David's point earlier in the week, it doesn't mean that we're going into a new great recession.
It doesn't mean that we're all, you know, all the companies are going under and we're fired.
But there's absolutely going to take a haircut on some of these really expensive PE names.
expensive PE names. The stocks that we are all fascinated with just doing 10% and 20% day after
day, the SanDiscs and the Microns and some of the various AI plays like, okay, now that
animal spirits are cooling off, do any of those valuations make sense? Do any of those PEs make
sense? A lot of them know. And so, you know, they've all started to roll over. Some of them
have already taken, you know, negative 30, 40, 50% plunges. And I agree with David. We were
talking about this yesterday. Hey, we just made new lows, Matt. We're at 71.
Can I just say one correction, Matt, please?
Can I say one correction?
Sure.
The S&P is not rolling.
It's not going.
It's within 1% of an all-time high.
Yeah, but look up in the NASDAQ.
The NASDAQ, you're right.
The NASDAQ, you're right.
Crypto, you're right.
But it's important to notice the S&P isn't doing that.
And that's telling you something.
We're losing the covalence because the money is going from one part of the S&P to another.
It's just.
It's going to.
And that's the important point.
It's going to staples.
It's going to energy.
But.
Well, it stopped.
That's the question. But the current makeup of the S&P 500 right now is so heavily weighted tech or MAG7.
I think you'd agree, David.
It's so heavily weighted.
It's 40%, 45%.
And that's the testament.
And I agree with you.
And I totally agree with you.
And that's why people get real pissed off when you call for a 10% or 20% correction on the S&P 500.
But that's what happens.
Look, when tech and MAG7 take a big haircut and money moves over to more energy and more staples and more utilities, the index is still going to fluctuate.
Maybe it trends sideways, but it's very reasonable.
Can I give you some math on that?
Yeah, go ahead.
So if you've got a high PE, a dollar of high PE earnings, and it goes from, say, Microsoft to Exxon, the index goes down because you're getting a lower multiple on Exxon than Microsoft.
the index goes down because you're getting a lower multiple in Exxon than Microsoft.
But what happens if you've got leverage building up in Exxon, leverage building up in Amazon?
What if your hyperlink scaler, whatever it is that you do, you can borrow 200?
What if you say, oh, I see an ocean of money coming, all that tech money, it's coming,
I'm going to get in early.
So my base case is that we barely move
on the s&p it's just all the nasdaq that flips around into low beta and it turns low beta high
beta and you guys in crypto space it's your doing because you could supersize the leverage
and by the way alphabet's up 60 basis points now uh only but isn't so much of the s&p is part of
the nasdaq now though I think that's I understand
but that's exactly what Matt said but what if you leverage super leverage the low beta and start to
blow its volatility up that might be enough to hold it up and that's why I think in 2000 the
S&P went down 17 18 the, the NASDAQ 57, right?
This time, I don't think a NASDAQ down 57 would even cause the S&P to go down 17, 18.
I think less because of you guys.
You could put on so much leverage.
Yeah, 10% though.
Exactly.
But that's not the same thing.
And what happens when you guys start to see, let's roll over the Coca-Cola call shorts. Let's roll over the Lily call shorts. Back to back. Sorry. Here's a great,
here's a good example. We all know how terrible 2022 was, right? I mean, 2022 is just painful
for everything for, you know, you name it. The mag seven tech hell is even a bad year for bonds.
you know, you name it, the mag seven tech hell is even a bad year for bonds.
The only, really the only sector that had a excellent year,
the entire sector was energy.
War.
War.
Sure.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I mean, the, the reasons notwithstanding energy had an incredible year and was up, I think the XLE alone was up something like 40% or 30% year over year.
That's incredible.
And yet, even though energy did so well and some staples in utilities, it could not save the S&P 500 from having a really rough 2022.
the S&P 500 from having a really rough 2022. So like, yes, you could avoid a lot of pain if like,
if you knew, if you knew, hey, I think Exxon and Chevron and XLE and some of the natural gas,
I think they have a stellar year. You are better off, like just take that money and put it into the winners that you're high conviction on rather than
like well maybe maybe maybe S&P 500 doesn't take too big of a haircut but no no if you're
onto something uh pull the trigger make the move I just put up my first tweet ever, very brutal, 2022, calling for Max Short, Kathy, Crypto,
all that stuff.
The Fed said, goodbye QE.
Now there's a lot that didn't exactly happen in there, but the Fed did the end QE, they
put in QT, and they raised rates.
That caused the thing to go down because they dragged the dollar up
at 12% in five minutes.
Okay? They
had the greatest policy kinesis
since Volcker
where they were raising rates at the fastest rate
ever. So that was going to be
a liquidity problem.
And then we also had 9%
inflation because of Biden spending.
We had 13% nominal GDP.
And it was eventually going to be great for stocks, but it was too much.
We wanted industrials.
We wanted smokestack.
We wanted anything that was hardcore.
We did not want anything that was low beta or high multiple.
And then we got long, you know, max long October 28th, 2022, because that calmed down.
But this is happening organically. That's the difference. It's not policy controlled. It's the
K of the policy. The policy interference has helped the market stay up since it peaked on
November, excuse me, on July 9th, 2024, when the Nasdaq stopped outperforming the S&P for the
first time in 5,711 days starting on November 21, 2008, at the bottom for the Nasdaq after the GFC
at 1,018. But this is happening organically. The system is deleveraging. You can see the low beta going up,
the high beta going down,
and you people,
you sick, wonderful people
with your 200 leverage,
you're going to get involved in XLP.
You're going to get involved in XLU.
You're going to get involved in XLV.
David, when you finish your statement,
you have to say forget about it.
Forget!
Okay, I'll use that as my punctuation.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
But I'm trying to tell you what I
do. I am a navigator. I am not the trader. I'm not the fighter pilot. I'm not doing Fortinet.
I tell you where I see liquidity gaps. I saw the Bitcoin tail, the bear tail. We explained it and
why with the cash price, with the derivatives, the price structure.
We started moving people to look. We don't tell people. We moved them to be looking at silver
before it went bananas and then volatility exploded because you can't stay on the other
side of that. Okay. We're vulnerable to Bitcoin dropping $20,000 in a day if they could break out this fifty five dollar
vol on on devol okay or we just melt down because people want it to melt down i think that would be
i think that would be amazing if you see a twenty thousand spike down on btc that oh that's a buy
that's a buy yeah that's a tradable scalp yeah you know like you'd see solana down like 30 percent
That's a buy.
That's a tradable scalp.
You know, you'd see Solana down like 30%.
That's a good scalp.
Probably 40%.
Could be.
But I want people to see where the money's going.
That's what I look for.
You guys like to go where you can drink your enemy's tears,
roll over them as a crew.
It's no longer, you're never going to be able to,
in this decade, roll over Bitcoin vol sellers. You're not going to be able to, in this decade, roll over Bitcoin vol sellers.
You're not going to be able,
you could spike them.
You're done.
Let's talk about,
let's talk about where money's going,
where I think's working.
And again,
I think it's energy.
I think it's,
it's,
it's the big caps.
It's the medium.
It's the small caps.
It's,
it won't be the small caps.
I don't know. Only the small caps and winning sectors. Do's the small caps. It won't be the small caps. I don't know.
Only the small caps in winning sectors.
Do you want small cap in tech?
Do you want small cap in crypto?
You want the small cap in winning sectors?
Sure.
Small cap in energy.
Energy is a winning sector.
I see small caps doing great.
Yeah, exactly.
Well, everything's for now. Everything's
temporary. No, no, no, no. But
the low beta has a couple of years.
Energy has months
until the dollar starts to melt up.
This war's going to end in Ukraine.
There's no way Vladimir Putin
wants Gavin Newsom. Can you explain the relationship
between the dollar and energy?
Explain the relationship between that trade? When the dollar goes up,
it destroys the emerging markets
and they go into recession.
They run out of money.
Their currencies,
which six billion people on planet Earth
have their currencies at all time lows.
India, Indonesia, Korea had to intervene.
Japan's having to intervene.
Egypt defaulted.
Pakistan defaulted. Sri Lanka defaulted tri lanka defaulted bank six billion
people their currencies are low their inflation is high that's with the dollar the dxy weak against
the euro uh and the pound but you get the dollar going up against the euro and the pound these cut
this happened in march 25 1997. it's the same playbook with just compressing time.
Greenspan snugged up rates, oh, just 25.
March 25th, 1997, 197 basis points of inflation.
99 days later, Thailand devalues, then Indonesia, then Korea,
then the entire emerging markets.
411 days later, long-term capital blows up.
They have to cut rates.
David, how do EMs affect energy companies?
They buy oil.
They use a lot of oil.
They don't build any tall buildings.
Their energy utilization collapses
when they're in recession.
So you'll have oil at $40.
And then there just won't be enough money for the exploration.
There'll be a glut of oil.
So you have to wait for the dollar to go up,
and then you have to wait for it to affect.
You don't get in front of it.
You buy it, you ride it,
and then when you see the dollar, you say,
okay, I'm watching.
I'm off of cruise control.
I'm on the gas pedal, but I'm waiting for some weakness.
That's all.
You're not getting short.
You're not getting out.
But you're watching when you see the dollar go up that it's going to be toxic.
And then you'll start to see one country say, you know, we had a run on our currency.
Can you go to the imf which donald
trump controls because we have the special drawing rights majority control but what's working you buy
nobody is smart enough not me not you not anybody to be smarter than eight billion people what's
going up is what people want to buy oil Oil's working. It's working. Period.
No ifs, ands, or buts.
When you see the dollar go up, you say, I want to see if I'm going to start to slow down.
That's it.
Okay.
Well, for right now, energy and oil are going up.
And I don't have a crystal ball of when that ends.
And you're right.
Maybe it's when dollar gets too expensive compared to other currencies. As long as you're watching.
As long as you're watching to make sure it's working.
Okay.
I mean, okay.
Then, you know, maybe that's a, I'm no expert.
So a trailing stop loss.
Oh, that's the perfect solution.
Right.
But not for your whole position.
Because you could get one piece of volatility.
So you do it with a part of your position, right?
And then it could just go back to the highs. And you you know what i don't want to add it back yet i want
to see make sure but you buy what's working you have trailing stops with part of your position
because you don't get shaken up by volatility but it's working so you do it
prometheus iron down 20 today man is man. Is it a buy? No.
No, hell no.
It's a short.
It was a short yesterday.
It was a short yesterday when I said on your show it's a short.
One sec.
Let me get my thoughts.
Uno momento, por favor, senor.
Gracias, de nada.
No, I mean, it's not a buy. I mean, the issue is, right, it's just finally starting to break structure.
Obviously, from a technical perspective, people have their thoughts from a fundamental thesis,
and they can have those.
But price is the ultimate arbiter of truth.
You know, that's what David was just talking about.
Price is the ultimate arbiter of truth.
And, you know, we are seeing a repricing.
Iron's really just catching up to the rest of the sector right now.
I mean, that's...
Catching up or catching down?
Catching down to the rest of the sector.
And, you know, if we want to talk about other structures that look similar,
I mean, you go and you look at like a Robin Hood, you look like a Palantir.
Each and every one of those structures is extremely extremely fragile right
you have a very thin move up right based on euphoria based on you know exuberance within
the market and you know thin value created up to the highs or what we call a range and you now
broken that range and unfortunately you don't have, you haven't built, uh, you know, strong enough foundation at the lows or on the way up, excuse me, to really support price on the
way down. Right. And so because of that, it creates what we like to call a glass house.
Um, and it's going to collapse in on itself, right? It's only a matter of time,
uh, unfortunately or fortunately, depending on how you want to look at it.
Unfortunately, or fortunately, depending on how you want to look at it, I would be very, very, very cautious because people like to play recency bias.
You know, I mean, that's kind of like the name of the game within markets when we want to talk about what people are going to want to bid when we come out of significant pullbacks or whatever that may be. But you also have to
understand structural integrity. And what do I mean by that? Structural integrity is very important.
And that's essentially a way to describe the overall characteristic of the market, right?
The overall characteristic of the market is very weak, right? And you could probably place most trades at this point or most charts in one basket,
and that basket is downtrending, high timeframe downtrends.
And when you're in high timeframe downtrends, you do not look to buy the dips.
It's inverse.
You look to sell the rips.
It is quite the opposite.
And I've been preaching this to the ladies and gentlemen in our discord is that when you get a you know breakout
of a strong base coming out of a bear market what happens right you get price appreciation trend to
the upside following that trend you might get 30 40 pullbacks along the way specifically in crypto
that's not unheard of by any by any means and what do you do you buy the dips right because we're in
a bull market we're in an uptrend right but the dips, right? Because we're in a bull market.
We're in an uptrend, right? But we're quite the opposite. Now we are in a high timeframe downtrend
and it doesn't just go for crypto. It goes for a lot of these stocks. Like look at quantum.
Quantum looks like a sack of crap on the side of the road. Like quantum is disgusting. You know,
you look at that. Unfortunately, a lot of these uranium plays look terrible.
I'm a big fan of LEU.
If we start to see, you know, a massive, massive move in the VIX and we get a significant pullback across the board,
I think LEU is going to be one of those plays that I am going to have in the back of my mind for when I'm trying to find the bottom,
because there will be a bottom. That's one of the names that I personally will be looking to acquire
for some of my long-term exposure in my equity portfolio. And there's a few other names,
but as of right now, I mean, I think you got to be very patient um you got to
be very very very patient i'm i mean dude it's it's there's only one there's only one caveat i
would i would put with iron prometheus they do report tomorrow with amazon and um i, it's gotten so much retail attention almost to meme, meme attention, meme quality.
And I'd be really hesitant to bet against it or short it.
Well, the reason why, Matt, to your point, it's got a lot of attention from retail.
And that is specifically the point that I think
people need to be paying attention to there's a gentleman who comes on these
spaces and he has a tremendous following right and he got a lot of people
extremely excited about buying that stock in in particular and what happens
then thereafter is there becomes a whole hell of a lot of sellers because people
made tremendous money and there are no buyers left because from an institutional perspective institutions don't
want to own that right institutions want to go out and they want to buy the big boys right things
that they can really position into a size right things that are more stable things that are less
volatile right things that have you know a track record um and as of right now like i said i mean from
a structural perspective from price but not only from a you know a market dynamics perspective
like you just said retail has positioned heavily within it well retail doesn't have any more money
left to bid right because there becomes the sway within the market, right? It's the cycle of cycles where, you know, you get max exuberance and you've gotten every buyer you can into that
chart. There's no, there's nobody left to buy, right? You've, you've had somebody that has
300,000 followers, 400,000 followers, max shilling this, uh, company, which is, you know,
and everybody who's, you know, wanted to get in at this point got in.
If there's no more buyers, what's left in the market, right? It's very, very, very simple.
It's a one-way trade, in my opinion, just like the rest of the market. And they're saying they
could do well on earnings, but I mean, that strength is only going to be momentary and really only, you know, tide the flow or, you know, slow down the flow of the market
for a little period of time. I don't think it's going to be anything significant. I don't think
the earnings is going to be significant enough to really stem the flow of the tides.
Yeah, I think my only worry about getting too bearish on that is it's been over three
months. It's been over 90 days since its all-time high. At its low, it corrected more than 50%.
So I assume that much of retail and their out-of-the-money calls have all been expired, worthless, if not assumed to be.
Okay, yeah, I'm looking.
It already had a negative 55% pullback from its all-time high.
And even as we sit right here, it's negative 40% from its all-time high.
And again, over three months since its euphoria.
So I don't want to say that the bottom's in but one could say like it is.
I don't know what happened.
Oh, you went to mute it.
No, no, no. I think that just happened on a tone. I did not what happened. Oh, you didn't mean it. No, no, no.
I think that just happened on a tone.
I did not press mute.
Oh, okay.
Oh, boy.
But my worry is if they get a short-term news catalyst on their earnings,
there's a lot of speculation that they might be announcing another deal this time with Amazon.
they might be announcing another deal this time with Amazon,
it can absolutely just flatten someone writing puts on iron.
So, I mean, yeah, you're right.
What's the harm in waiting till Friday, Prometheus,
if you want to take a big directional position one way or the other on the name?
But, yeah, I think that that you got to be a little cautious because at the end of the day,
the majority of the revenue is still on selling Bitcoin every day and hash price for Bitcoin
has never been lower. It's at an all time low. And I don't think anyone thinks that today is the cycle low on Bitcoin. So if you think
there's weakness in Bitcoin still to come, then there's weakness in Iran's revenue.
Yeah, I mean, I mean, I agree. It's, is this the prime time to be positioning short in a play like that?
Are there better things to be short in that sector?
Absolutely.
But, you know,
I don't think it's something to be scared to position short in.
I think Google's down now.
Interesting.
Yeah.
And they've been an absolute rocket ship for the past, you know, 30 to 60 days.
So but anyways, within that sector as a whole, I mean, I think there's, you know, personally, I think there's better names to be positioned short in.
What do you like to what do you what are you trying to be long in? What do you like?
I know we were talking energy yesterday.
Is that what you're thinking?
Yeah.
I mean, I've been long, called it out in the Discord, Chevron, Exxon.
Another company I like is AROC.
There's also Energy Transfer.
Those are kind of the four names that I picked up exposure in i don't know probably like 45 days
ago maybe 30 45 days ago um that's been treating me nicely obviously um really if i just look at
volatility structure volatility looks like it's in a high time frame uptrend and we're gonna have
like a covid style blow off here pretty soon.
I'm being really patient.
Could you describe what you mean by a COVID style blow off?
Yeah, it's, I mean, volatility has been well supplied for a long time.
And which volatilities, which volatilities?
Tech in particular.
And, you know, high beta, like David likes to talk about.
And so when we saw the move for the Japan carry trade during August 5th, when we saw the April blowout for the tariffs, volatility at the time was actually very well supplied.
And that's why we saw a massive reversion uh in volatility or in the big structure excuse me and ever since trump has been in office over time um the volatility has
become less and less and less supplied and what i mean by that is if you look at the volatility
structure in particular it's you know making it's big, keep continually making a higher
low structure. And that is indicative that, you know, there is worry within the market.
And if, and when there is a big block and volatility, you don't have, um, as, as many,
you know, whoever it may be supplying, um, as much volatility to the market, meaning that the move is going to be exacerbated to the upside, and there won't be the supporting nature of being short
vol like people have been for a very, very, very long time.
Can I explain two things that will clarify something you're saying that might help?
Sure.
First of all, when Trump did the Liberation Day, it was a complete spoof.
There was no way we're doing 145 tariffs. China would take away our rare earth minerals because
their economy has 1.2 trillion of exports, but it only grows at 900 billion. So they would be
in a recession, right? So that was a spoof. He tricked everyone. You know, we did a basis on
April 21 saying, boom, volatile is coming right down things gonna
surge april 21. that was a trick he got everybody long volatility so they would dump the volatility
that they got long and it would stabilize throughout the rest of the process the problem is
it's not just that volatile is going up it's that that VIX is going up and the VIX isn't.
That's the problem.
The VIX went up to 100.
I was going to get to that. It's what has been the supportive flows within the market as of the past 24 months.
Obviously, NVIDIA, the AI trade, tech, what David has talked about for quite some time,
now is obviously exiting the market.
And as that continues to exit the market,
you're going to see a continual unwind within that trade.
And it's probably actually just getting started.
This is so important.
I'm sorry to interrupt again.
When you buy stock, you are shorting volatility.
So if people are underweight, their ownership of NVIDIA and FANG,
your desire to clean up your underweight is a volatility supplessor.
What happens when you flatten the position? You're mathematically buying volatility
because the position that you take on is a short going to flat is a buy
so you have structural things that are going to overwhelm the fewer and fewer people willing to
short volatility and you know who they are individual investors it's uh hedge funds they
don't have a position they're not long. And they're going to get short
because what do these parasites do, hedge funds? They'll short the tech stocks. They'll put some
stuff in the newspaper. And they'll call their friends at the mutual funds and say, hey, you
need to dump some stuff? I got a short on you. We can pair it off. And so they'll be owning it,
having short it much higher. they'll they'll pump up
the bad stories but there's nobody left but individual investors and their balance sheet
is going bad because we just lost in crypto 1.7 trillion we lost a trillion in microsoft losing
a trillion here a trillion there at a certain point trillions add up forget about it so this is the problem when you're describing the volatility
it's very complex and it comes both from the vix the vixen it comes from the stock itself
with its synthetic implied volatility then you got to look at skew and kerto very complex but
if you want to get less complex and you're not leveraged, watch the price. It captures all of these things.
And guess what?
They're underperforming low beta by a massive amount.
And you tell me when that stops and then I'll be more happy.
But you have.
And I mean, sorry to cut you off.
I cut you off.
You can't cut off the guy that cut you off.
Forget about it.
Yeah.
Forget about it. I, uh, I'm just in just in i'm just in i'm in between sets here
the um so matt asked me do you have a sweat on your brow do you have a geisha tapping your brow
for for for for beads of sweat no i have a trainer but she doesn't beat my my brow well that's maybe a good thing yes um
no i think if you know matt asked me you have to tell her about selling volatility david
believe me all we talk about is how we set an appointment in the middle of the fed
press conference that i had forgot about. And I'm like,
it's a good thing. I don't think anything's going to happen because people would call and they would
be pissed. But I had already said earlier in the day, nothing's going to happen. He can't say
anything. If there was someone from the Fed, either dead or alive, that you would want to meet,
who would it be? Arthur Burns. Nixon, the most popular president in American history,
until somehow or other a naval intelligence officer
decides to be a beat reporter
and cracks the greatest case of all time.
Thing was the setup.
But Arthur Burns was on Team Nixon,
and they helped navigate through a very difficult time.
The idea that Fed independence is optimal
is the most delusional, idiotic policy I can't even imagine.
The Fed was not independent for Biden.
Powell was on Janet Yellen's poodle leash,
on his all fours, with his little tail,
saying, oh, transitory, yeah, yeah, yeah, that's it, transitory.
13% nominal GDP, 9% inflation, doubling of oil. Yeah, yeah, yeah, transitory. Yeah, yeah, yeah. That's it. Transitory. 13% nominal GDP, 9% inflation, doubling of oil.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Transitory.
They're only independent when it's Republicans.
Well, he had to get re-
Nominated.
Approved.
Yeah.
Renominated.
Right.
It's a lot of money in the circuit after Janet Yellen.
But to be fair, David, we're seeing the exact same thing with the new guy, Kevin Rorsch.
He's saying all he's making all the right mouth noises to Trump.
No, it'll be the first Republican to have a compliant Fed since since since Nixon.
You're right.
I mean, I'm not saying the pox on one of their houses
Trump think
you would agree that Trump thinks
he's going to come in with cuts on cuts
as soon as he's in the seat in 2026
I think
if someone knows what they're doing
and I try to get a message to Besson
and someone said they got it to him
we don't know if it's true
but someone said they got it to him but if don't know if it's true, but someone said they got it to him.
But if they don't cut, mortgage rates are going to melt.
Are you seeing Home Depot?
Do you think Main Street is happier when Home Depot is up or when NVIDIA is up?
Which one do you think they care about?
How about McDonald's?
How about Coke?
Main Street doesn't give a crap about NVIDIA or Apple or anything. They care
about Coke, McDonald's,
and all the
chicken, chicken full of...
Anything, Gap stores ready for an
all-time high. That's all.
They're pissed about the
low jobs number today.
It's not going to last once we start
building houses, because
they take a lot more labor.
Did you look at that?
They better hurry.
That's right.
But 80, that's why they shouldn't cut.
They shouldn't cut 80,000 jobs in health care and education minus 50,000 in software, you know, and other services.
We are shrinking.
We're taking the capital from fixed business investment and we're shoving it into fixed residential investment.
And I think there's enough time.
If they get the dollar up and they get mortgage rates just another 15, 20 basis points lower,
it's a breeder reactor.
It'll just be self-sustaining.
And that's what Lowe's is telling you, 52-week high, right?
Mortgage rates three are low, but not breaking down.
Three or high.
I want Main Street to do well,
and the market's telling you Main Street's going to do well.
Isn't it?
Look what's going up.
You could go to McDonald's, have a Coke,
and then take an injection and the fat goes away.
What's better than that?
McDonald's, Coke, and Lily.
And we're doing it American style, no Norvo Nordisk.
American style.
I'm sorry, Prometheus, we keep interrupting you.
He likes it.
He's a glutton.
He's a glutton.
I'm a glutton.
For punishment.
You let us interrupt.
Anyway, you're just too polite.
And handsome.
I'm a people pleaser sometimes.
Qualcomm's down nine.
Qualcomm's down nine.
That's another chip company.
Matt's question, what would I be along?
I mentioned LEU. mean matt's question what what would i be along i mean i mentioned leu um there are a few mining
companies that i would like exposure to but most importantly i just want to see the big
blow off and volatility and then structurally you have the reset that i've been looking for
what causes the reset after the blow-off starts i don't I don't really know but I just watch price
I know that when volatility gets over a certain um past a certain point it's generally a great
buying opportunity and so I take that I try not to overcomplicate my trading I have enough to
deal with in my daily life so no but I mean it's got to stop going up though doesn't it
well it does have to stop going oh that's all's all I was... No, I just wanted to clarify.
You think it's going to go up,
and when the market's trading well
and volatility starts to behave,
then you'll...
But what if it just grinds higher?
Then it won't be ripe yet.
Correct.
I just wanted to clarify what you're saying
because people are listening,
and I want them to know what you're saying because people are listening. And I want them to know what you're thinking.
So generally speaking, when you see a six sigma move, we'll call it, right?
It's actually only four.
You have to go back to the beginning of Earth for a six sigma.
That's what everyone gets wrong.
Right.
So when you see a substantial outlier
move in volatility, right?
When you see like what we saw
during the
tariff move
in volatility, right? Where volatility is up
like, what was it, up like 80%,
90%?
No, it was up hundreds of percent to
80. Well, I'm talking
within the day. No, but it went from like 20 to 80. So it was up hundreds of percent to 80. Well, I'm talking within the day.
No, but it went from like 20 to 80.
So it was up 300%.
But it didn't happen in a single day.
It happened in three minutes.
From 20 to 80?
I'll need to go check my chart.
On the announcement, there was no offering.
Right, right.
And I mean, so when we see that,
it's just when i see the market
imbalance i i take my shot right that's that's how i look at it right when the liquidity gap
stops being a liquidity gap you want to be at the edge of the opportunity absolutely but you do need
to wait for the event to stop getting worse and that's the problem here it's going to take longer for it to
stop getting worse because you're going to have crypto down more than 50 by then sale is going to
be below 100 i'm not buying crypto and that no no but i mean when you have the loss of equity
from people that are cross-leverage into the palantirs and then the roblox is in all the
super high beta and the ARK funds,
and then they get the liquidation call, they're going to be forced to sell their Amazon and Apple
and their quote-unquote money market safety.
The Vega.
No, and so what you're saying is...
Vega price discovery, baby.
Forget about it.
And so what you're talking about is when you see the force liquidation with through
these high beta stocks that's the signal because you're then getting a rinsing of your cost
collateralization across the asset classes and individual names and that's your trigger to then
quote unquote get long that's e2 a22O. Everything, everywhere, all at once.
You get a seizing up.
Everyone backs away.
Higher volatility.
You put less capital out.
As soon as that stabilizes,
that's the blood in the streets.
But this is going to be ugly
because Bitcoin is novel.
By the way, Alphabet's down 230 right now.
2.37, negative.
No shock to me.
And it'll surprise, it's going to shock and surprise people
because they're just so used to so much strength from the AI names,
from the Mag7 names.
All they had to do was buy the S&P when it was down 5%.
That's all they've done over the past two years.
Right.
What do you mean?
How about the last 30 years?
Right.
But what did we just learn from gold and silver?
There is nothing that is immune from leverage and speculation and hot money ball propping up some of these
prices and equities. And until you see that deleveraging that you're talking about, you're
absolutely right. You've got to be super dubious of Nvidia's price, of Google's price, of Apple's
price. Look what happened to Microsoft.
Do you think that can only happen?
That can only, only Microsoft can have-
It's all of them.
They're going to have to cut their fees to get more growth.
It's a-
But yeah, but you think only Microsoft can have a negative 30%-
No, it's mama not go up.
Yeah, all, right.
Mama not go up.
It's all the same trade they all they were all up only uh touting their ai and as soon as ai isn't the
new hot thing and people want it maybe it's energy maybe it's um to your point maybe solana 91
yeah but so i agree like all of can, can take a big whacking.
But what happens when they happen at the same time and you thought that your Uber was safe
or your Microsoft?
Oh, I would never think Uber was safe.
I mean, with Waymo and you want to compete with, with Google and with Elon Musk,
that's the business you want to be in?
We love Elon.
They have no moat.
That's the problem.
That's right.
Neither does Airbnb.
Agreed.
Yeah.
Airbnb, BRBO.
It's just data.
It's just data.
It's just data.
Right.
Can I add one thing if you guys don't mind?
Yes.
So, Matt, I see you're in cybersecurity.
I am too.
So nice to meet you, brother.
But this is for the group in general.
But did you guys see what was in the bill that Trump signed to keep the government open?
Absolutely waiting for you to tell us.
Okay.
All defensive.
Healthcare, labor, housing, right?
Where are the jobs and the ADP?
Where are the jobs and the ADP? What happened under Biden?
It's all about the midterms.
The chips bill, right?
I forgot to mention,
I just saw,
Trump pulled out 700
ICE from
Minnesota. He's de-conflicting.
He pulled them out.
He says, I'm going to win the midterms. I'm not going to be impeached.
I'll come back after the midterms.
He just took 700 of them out of there.
Right?
He's behaving.
It's tough.
They probably had to tie him down
and use the robo-pen, right?
But the bottom line is exactly what this gentleman said i didn't see it i wasn't looking i was busy
trump is sending money to these sectors he's not sending money to ai's
where the job's coming from you can only fire a certain amount of people to stabilize your free
cash flow and then when the dollar goes up it's even worse so you know when uh when the goon what
the ghoul prometheus i'm sorry when the prometheus says watch price i'm sure he's meaning don't talk
about a two dollar stock that trades by appointment. He's talking about big, deep, liquid things.
And when you have stuff in the S&P 500 that's offsetting the stuff that's going up,
offsetting the stuff that's going down,
and people think, and one of my followers,
she's the best.
She said she just made a Tesla.
She said she used to watch the VIX,
and now she realizes the VIX isn't giving good signal.
So she's looking for other places that give her signal.
Too many people think the VIX going up is your sign that there's risk out there.
But we know now it's not.
Because it's too many.
It's just volatility.
It's just money moving sectors.
But that's the S&P 500.
You go look at the VIX, or the
volatile equivalent of
FANG, it's ugly.
It's not specific enough.
You need specifics.
Like VX...
It's too noisy.
VXSMH.
That's the volatility of SMH.
That's going to go through the roof.
There's nothing that's going to hold that up.
Semis are more volatile than the NASDAQ.
It catches down.
It just happened to be held up by Sam Altman's fables.
But that's going to be price discovery.
There is no put screw to speak of
in this derivative structure
because of the hopium.
Well, guess what?
There's going to be.
There's going to be. There's going to be.
Because the dealers and the swing traders,
which function as dealers,
have maximum short gammas.
They're so short the gamma.
They were counting on a blast through
from 400 to 600.
They don't realize we're going 400 back to 200.
And fast.
I'm with Promekius. I just like to keep it really simple. And to me, I just see
nothing but a green year for energy. And I look at some of the biggest names, like, you know,
we've talked enough about Exxon and Chevron, which are still not, you know, their PEs are
reasonable, mid to low 20s.
But then I look at what's in the rest of energy sector with large market caps that have super low PEs like Shell, Conoco, Sucor, Valero, Marathon.
I mean, on and on and on, Dominion, Diamond, like all of these names are super low PEs compared to tech, like 10 and 12 and less than 15.
I mean, on and on and on, Dominion, Diamond.
These PEs are just dying to be pumped. And to your point, these companies, I mean, they hire real experts and real workers, you know, thousands, tens of thousands in Heartland, in the South,
in, you know, overseas too, but like they are real economy companies that will, you know,
put immediately put that cash to use too. So whether you're, you know, whether you're bullish
AI, like that's another reason to own all these energy plays is, well, someone's got to provide it.
And if the AI tech companies want to take a haircut or want to sit it out for 2026, well, you can still ride all that CapEx being spent because they have to pay these energy companies to provide the infrastructure and the backbone, the power backbone.
So, yeah, I just love everything about energy in 2026.
And you're right.
Eventually that trade does fizzle out, David.
You watch it while it's working.
And if it slows down.
That's the thing that's going to give me all my buying power
in late summer and early fall of 2026.
It's paying a fat dividend for a lot of them, right?
That's what they do.
So you're likely to have more money,
and all you want to do is watch for it to slow down.
If it slows down, you let go 10%.
What's the crime?
You ride 90%.
That's the mentality of people, Bitcoin maximizers,
every dollar they have instead of raising cash on the way down
in case you have a bigger draw
you amazon fell 95 to 1999. no one sold all at the high and bought all at the low but
if you raise cash and you lighten up your your weaker ones your losers you know we got arm
holdings down eight bucks you've got Solana's now under 91,000.
Okay, down 10%. So...
You mean under $91?
It's $91.
It says 90 point something.
I'm sorry.
If you say Solana's under 90,000,
the Solana bulls will be like,
Yay!
I knew I was going to 90,000!
Yay!
They are... They are constantly calling for to 90,000 Yeee They are
They are
You have to say your catchphrase
Naka say your catchphrase
Good evening my little DGens
How's the bull market going?
Seriously how's the bull market
tracing you?
By the way king wabi I I wanted to come on your spaces because I wanted to talk to your people I was
supposed to do a spaces when you're done I'm advertising for myself I'll be
putting on a spaces so anybody who wants to keep this conversation going look
for it like subscribe whatever you got to do.
But he's got to end at some point, but we're seeing the unwind. We're seeing double digits
on these things. They used to be double digits up. That's a linear transformation. And we're
seeing this stuff that used to be down 10, up 10. Don't we want to move some money gradually into what's working?
Like Prometheus said, come on.
Have a heart.
Love a little.
My money's working good in the Solana and East Shore
right now.
What do you cover?
I covered a little bit
on my East Shore at
$2,100. I entered in right below
$2,900. And then my Sol00, I entered in right below 29.
And then my Solana, I'm going to cover mid-80s for a chunk of it,
and I entered at 128.
So you'll scale down because, you know, you'll cover some, and if you get a juke up, you'll lay some out.
Exactly.
Because this looks like it's going to 20.
Oh, yeah.
No, I mean, structurally, mean structurally absolutely but i mean that's
the thing too like people got to be really careful like you know listening is we i get on here and a
few others get on here and we're you know we're bearish and they think oh you know i need to go
be short the market you need to be really careful shorting into the hole because if you look at
solana last cycle particular uh the shoulder that solana put in, I mean, it moved 80%.
So if you were only short on 2x leverage, you got liquidated.
So wait for bounces to happen.
Even if it goes down to 70 before it bounces, let the market provide you opportunity.
Don't try to force the market into thinking what you think it should, right?
into thinking what you you know think it should right because it's going to tell you otherwise
Because it's going to tell you otherwise.
bitcoin rose 67 percent from april of 2025 to october 6th of 2025 april's four october's 10
six months not even six months five and a half months 67 and that's the big daddy
Six months.
Five and a half months.
67%.
And that's the big daddy.
Shorts are much more whipsaw.
So you've got to be scaling.
You take your position.
You've got to adjust.
You traders know what you're doing.
What's different is you guys are going to take your 200x and you're going to massacre mama.
You're going to massacre mama.
Mama no go.
No go is NVIDIA, Oracle, and Google.
And, well, you like oil,
but eventually oil. But
Owens Corning, how about that?
OWC. Okay.
These things are going to be down on the year very soon.
And then as of April, as of May
20, May 11th,
you're going to have an ocean on the 52-week
low. You want to be buying an ocean on the 52-week low.
You want to be buying what's on the 52-week high
and lighten or short what's on the 52-week low
until things change.
Naka, how are you doing, man?
Feel free to give
your thoughts on today's
Price action
I mean, honestly the price action
Lack thereof
The price action isn't even that bad today
But like, I'm going on the timeline
And what am I seeing?
I'm seeing people talking about
The bottom
I'm seeing people talking about
Levering up here
A good opportunity
to go leverage long and borrow against your bitcoin and this is a generational entry and
you know the kind of like the p the super cycle people have kind of quietened down a bit now
but the new crowd is that like yeah we're like this is nearly the end of the bear
market we're nearly done i even saw some of the bears saying this like uh what's her name that
bitcoin spider chick said you know because we're 40 down we're halfway through the bear market
if it's going to be an 80 down and we're 40 down that means we're halfway through
which is unfortunately not the way the math works
right like how many how many times do you have to go down 10 to go down 100 in total
work that one out um did you see cmg eat out a 10 dollar 10 hole opened up down 10 closed up i don't know what you mean
by that cmg the food chipotle i have no idea oh chipotle yeah okay i don't need i don't need
i don't need track trad five but like you know crypto is just very obviously getting absolutely
slaughtered um naka what are you short right now?
I'm not short anything. I'm
mostly flat. I have a small
Monero position, which I think was a bit of a mistake, but it's
like, what, 5%?
So, I mean, to be honest, you know,
I'm just going to bask in the bear market memes
reconsider my position
once crypto Twitter is dead
and we're below the 200 weekly no you're
wrong it won't be crypto twitter it'll be ct but it'll be commodities twitter yeah probably
probably um i mean to be honest i was hoping to get short above 100k i really thought that they
were going to push it up to 100k and then like people would really get bullish and
then slam it down but it's just been very weak and uh i wasn't really expecting it to be this week
um and when it's this week it's like you know so resilient for years and years and then suddenly
extremely weak it's quite hard to um to be bear I mean, I guess you could just open a Bitcoin short,
low leverage, you know, like liquidation above 150k and just write it down, but
it's just not a very high alpha trade that, I mean, like, your upside is just not that big,
so I'm not particularly interested.
see naka sometimes you're too smart for your own good because a lot of people wouldn't think that
they're you know they wouldn't consider the fact that there's infinite losses in shorting and
the opportunity maybe isn't as attractive and because that you know they would see the patterns burning in
their subconscious and they would take it really without thinking and being
analytical whereas you you're sometimes a little bit too smart for your own good
and you scare yourself out of the trade yeah I mean you know like I've been in
some good trades I've been in some bad trades and what I've generally found is that a really good trade is one that you get into early you get in at the right position
with size and then you hold it with conviction and those trades are almost always bullish trades
um there are some opportunities for like really asymmetrical shorting um but it's just you know like if you if you want to make it um as a retail trader
you should be looking to go long and basically never go short and basically what that means is
in the bear market you just have to sit on your hands do nothing it's going to be a show
enjoy the memes and maybe allocate to the masses you, later this year and ride them up.
Um, and at the moment, I'm just kind of, the other thing I'm thinking, right, is that like,
I actually think, you know, there's some interesting stuff going on in the AI agent
economy right now. Um, uh, it's probably not going to blow up in terms of prices, but I think just go and check out Maltbook and all of the clawed launch, all of that stuff that's going on.
That could really be a big thing in 2027.
That is really taking off.
You have AIs acting somewhat independently and starting to do stuff it's baby steps for the agent
slash ai economy it's just much more alpha to like participate in that than try to like short
bitcoin i mean yeah bitcoin's going to 35 but that's only a 2x move from here maybe you can
lever it up um you know but then you're taking you've got to get good entries
everyone's looking for good short entries
will they come, won't they
I don't know
as I said
I was hoping to slam it down
above 100
but that would be the
perfect bait to get people bullish again
but as I said the level of weakness
has just been
pretty shocking well to be fair it was not shocking to anybody in our spaces because
bitcoin denominated in its own volatility peaked three weeks before the crash it's just yeah i
don't know i mean i don't really think there's any alpha in like you know
asset over asset vol i think it's like mostly reading the tea leaves no not at all it gets
to you have volatility too low yeah it doesn't accommodate that level of divergence once it
got there and it failed for two weeks it was a clear sign two failed weeks you lighten up
two failed weeks you lighten up you Two failed weeks, you lighten up.
You just had Bitcoin keep on going up.
That wasn't.
I just don't use asset over asset vol as a strategy.
It just doesn't.
Yeah, because maybe you don't read it very well.
I don't know.
It's just very, very clear.
It's very organized in Bitcoin.
It's organized in silver.
I was bearish while you were bullish and now you're
turning bearish you should maybe say i got it right while you were fighting with me maybe that
would be decent well i wasn't i wasn't fighting you were saying you were super mega bullish on
the way down now you're flipping after a lot of money's lost so instead of saying you can't read
it maybe it's you can't read it. What was I
bullish on? I wasn't bullish on silver. No, you
were bullish on crypto.
On the way down.
I've been bearish for months, man.
After the blow-up.
Not before.
Naku was actually bearish
pretty early. I'll give him that. But not before
the event.
Which event
are you talking about? October 6th.
No, I
was like, Bitcoin is done. I thought
alt might have a pump, but I was like,
Bitcoin is done. ETH is done.
Maybe we get alt season. But we didn't get alt
season. We got rep season.
You're exactly wrong, and people
could have made money on the other side. I'm not
saying there's anything wrong with that,
but you should at least give credit to me being on the proper side at the top
and taking crap all over Twitter in the octagon saying you can't even speak.
I was as well, dude.
I was like, Bitcoin is dumb.
We're going to 35K.
But alt's got slaughtered.
Yeah, but alt's did get slaughtered, Yeah, but like alts did get slaughtered.
But by the time people were actually getting slaughtered on alts, I was already out.
I was like, yeah, this is too.
Yeah, but you weren't highlight.
You were saying it's still good for a bump.
I'm not being critical of you, but at least get credit where credit's due.
It's not quality of you.
After the finance leverage wipeout, I knew that it was basically done, right?
After people lost money by tons.
How about helping people before?
But that's because they will leverage long on Binance, right? Like that's just not not good risk management
When you got it you got to take risks to get some rewards, right? Like if you're long an altcoin
You know on spot right and you're like, yeah
We could have an alt season and then like everyone who's long on leverage on finance gets wiped
Your spot position doesn't care about it and you're like yeah, you know what maybe I'm out of this
I don't like the risk reward anymore. I think that's fine
um, you basically you know another thing is you should basically almost never use leverage in crypto
um, like
Leveraging crypto is is a trap like I don't think there's I don't think there's really any justification
I'm sure it's Bitcoin on margin. It's you've got to not ride through bad cycles.
Who are you talking about? Leverage is a trap. Leverage is how you are capital efficient within these markets.
Guys, now that the blood pressure is rising in the room, Tina has requested to speak. Tina, how are you, man?
Can you hear me?
You're going to have to turn it up by
10 decimals minimum. The mic has
to crack when you speak. Hold on a second.
There's something wrong with my headset.
Can you hear me?
Yes.
Ladies and gentlemen, he has his headset on.
Be ready. No, actually, I'm going to be very quiet.
I'm curious to know people's takes on where they think Bitcoin can trade.
Let me tell you the things that bother me about the way Bitcoin trades.
about the way bitcoin trades it's not just that the price has declined one thing that bothers me
It's not just that the price has declined.
intensely about the way bitcoin trades is that one it's lost its volatility which i think is a
problem for bitcoin two i think the returns from the 2021 2022 double bull market time frame to the peak, this bull market, are pretty punk.
Oh, man, it's gone up like 700%
or nearly 800%.
If you want to measure it from the absolute low,
but I don't think that's a fair way to measure it.
I think a better way...
Well, if you let me talk, I would actually tell you.
How's that?
Is that okay?
So I think a fair way to measure this asset, because it's so volatile,
is to look at some kind of a moving average, maybe the 200-day.
Because you want to try to get – it moves very fast.
And measuring it from the absolute low I mean I get that you know you can trade those prices but reality is people don't really get
those prices some do some don't absolute low absolute top this is sort of a fiction but if
you want to measure it overall pick a moving average average, like a 50-day or 200-day, and look at where it was on that basis.
It's kind of a DCA kind of an average from the prior bull market to this bull market. And the numbers are not that great considering the level of risk and considering
how many people have massive positions in it. And so that's the thing that probably bothers me most
about Bitcoin because I thought the returns were not that great.
So I'm looking at a 200-day by way of example.
So in the prior peak, you had in the neighborhood of a 200-day,
call it 40 to 45K, and it peaked in the neighborhood of 109K.
in the neighborhood of 109k on a risk reward basis you're better off in the
S&P or the Q's because the risk associated with Bitcoin is dramatically
higher than either of those two assets so it's sort of a mediocre return
particularly when looked at compared to its earlier life cycle you people
who think Bitcoin will but here's the thing man like let me finish then you can talk what you want
you have people who have expectations which are still very very high they're looking for 10x from
here and you may get it you've got people talking about things like power laws, which is honestly garbage. It's nonsensical stuff people are trying to talk themselves into.
Because, yeah, maybe the power law exists, but maybe it takes 80 years for the power law to work.
Maybe the power law doesn't work in three years, as you might hope. So maybe it gets to a million dollars, but it's a million dollars in 2100, not in 2030. And I'm not saying that's where it goes, but you have people who look at this
in a very fanciful way, and the analysis just lacks tremendous rigor. And I think people have
And I think people have extraordinarily high expectations.
And those expectations have failed.
I know what I thought.
I thought Bitcoin could be well over $200,000, $400,000 by 2022.
That was completely wrong.
People liked hearing that.
But it was just straight up fucking wrong.
Plan B's stuff is total trash because the concept of stock-to-flow is bullshit.
Because what matters is demand.
Demand isn't there.
People don't want to own this thing.
And when you compare it to gold, gold recently, now I still think gold is a garbage asset.
I think stocks are much better as assets over long periods of time
because non-cash flowing assets,
for the most part,
yeah, I get there are things like artwork and such,
but they need much less support
from monetary activity.
If you have, if a Warsh, for instance, has a more disciplined approach than prior
Fed chairman, and there's some degree of constraint, all these hoped-for things don't
quite happen. Businesses don't need that if they have goods and services that people want.
happen. Businesses don't need that if they have goods and services that people want.
Granted, stock prices can get way ahead of themselves. But so I look at this and I just
have to question, you know, what this can do. And if expectations are really high, but they're
dampened, if it takes, if looking out five years of Bitcoin sitting at $150,000 or 10 years, it's sitting at $200,000, your money might have been better off somewhere else.
And so I'm just curious to know people's overall take.
And for me, the single biggest negative thing about Bitcoin is this lack of volatility,
the lack of enthusiasm. And I hear endless stories of the same things that I and other people were
saying six and seven years ago, and very little has changed. So I'm just curious to know people's
reaction to that. And I'm just trying to be objective here yeah the reason the reason you're not seeing bitcoin pumping like it's 2009 anymore is very simple it's that back
in 2009 2010 and 11 and 12 and 13 and 14 back in those days most people in the world hadn't heard
of bitcoin so you had a self-reinforcing process where the price went up people got hyped more
people heard about, more people heard
about it, more people managed to like connect themselves to a crypto rail and get involved,
right? That process is over. Most people who are ever going to buy Bitcoin have already
heard of it. So now it's in a more sort of zero sum game where instead of it being like
a growth phase of the network getting more adoption. It's a zero sum phase where some people have to lose in order for others to win.
And that kind of zero sum phase, it results in the kind of price action where all of the
upside happens very early at the beginning, right?
All the upside happened in 2023 and early 2024.
There was like massive pumps.
And then, you know, there was like the ETF pump and that was like the majority of the
gains of the, of the bull market were done by then. And then the rest of the time, you know,
like the next 18 months was basically just a big distribution phase where people who got in early
or people who are OGs basically slowly sold off coins to late comers. And what's happening now,
it seems is that the, you know, the dumb money
is starting to run out. There's more sellers than buyers and the price is going back down.
And I think the next cycle, I've got some bad news for you. The next cycle is going to be even worse,
right? Almost all of the upside. Okay. That's, that's, that's, that's where I'm going. That's
what I want to know. What do you, where do you think it'll be five years from now? Ten years from now? And how does it kind of dribble along in here?
I honestly think we get to like, you know, 37, maybe 35K in like late, maybe early 2027 or late this year, depending on how quickly this dump happens.
And then maybe in 2030, we hit like 180 K.
Like, I think that's a reasonable.
You're kidding, knock 130 K.
180, 180, 180, 180, dude.
180.
Dude, that is so piss poor, man.
I mean, the fact that you're saying that is like, it's just like fuel to my hypothesis that things just going to get worse, right?
Your expectations for how well it's going to do in terms of Bitcoin are too high.
You need to lower them.
Bitcoin is going to be a relatively low sharp ratio asset moving forwards, right? As in, yes, it will still go up a lot.
If it goes from 30 K to like 180 K in a couple of years, that's an incredible trade, right?
But like by crypto standards, that's kind of shitty, right? And that's just what we're going
to get. Because as I said, most of the people who are ever going to buy Bitcoin have now already
heard of it.
And they're just waiting for the right entries and the right exits.
And they're thinking about taking profits and stuff like that.
That just results in shitty PA, right?
Like, you know, maybe if you're bullish, you're like, we're going to encounter aliens.
We're going to encounter this alien civilization.
That's like a million times bigger than earth.
And none of them have heard of Bitcoin. And we're going to dump our bitcoin on the aliens right or maybe those aliens
not going to be aliens maybe they're going to be ais right if you're bullish you're like we're going
to dump our bitcoins on the ais right that's the bullish case okay but if you're just dealing with
humans it's going to be an absolute shit sandwich for Bitcoin and probably for Ethereum as well.
Because, you know, I was doing some research tonight on Ethereum scaling.
And I actually basically think that Vitalik has fucked it up.
Like, I think Vitalik has actually killed Ethereum by focusing too much on L2s.
When you go through the numbers, right, if you think about applying the technology
that Monad is using to Ethereum, and you kind of like do a little bit of, you know, you kind of
clean up some of the state bloat, and you make people buy, you know, $2,000 machines, which
they're kind of already buying to run a node, right? You could get maybe 2, 2000 TPS on the Ethereum network just by doing the obvious things,
running it multi-threaded, doing state expiry, having state rent and making people buy like,
you know, a 16 terabyte hard drive to store state. You could have 2000 TPS Ethereum.
Ethereum is currently running at like 15 TPS or something. And the only reason that's happening is because Vitalik is a retard about this, right?
He is not, he's not aggressive enough on saying, okay, we need to cut the crap.
We need to actually scale Ethereum.
We need to actually scale the L1.
The L2's thing hasn't worked, right?
He's still being slow on it. And I think the fact that he's kind of fucked that up and also that, you know,
you have this like Tom Lee retard, who's like yeeted $15 billion into
ETH or something.
And he's like bought the top.
Like all of this is, all of this is just extremely bearish, right?
You basically have Bitcoin, which is run by, you know, I don't know
whether anyone plays Warhammer 40k,
but somebody I spoke to said that Bitcoin is basically run by, uh, the AdMech, uh, you know,
it's like, you know, they think it's like a machine spirit that has to be worshiped, right?
And they're like completely retarded and they don't want to upgrade it and they don't want to
make it quantum proof and any of this stuff. and then you have ethereum which vitalik is trying to run like a charity for math nerds and he doesn't actually
want people to actually use it right um you know the the top two assets in the space have absolutely
abysmal governance structures um so yeah i think it's bearish i think i think crypto is gonna have
a bit of a sandwich bear market i don't know how low it's reallyish. I think, I think crypto is going to have a bit of a shit sandwich bear market.
I don't know how low it's really going to go because,
because like trad fi could become bullish and then we probably go up again,
but I think it's more likely that trad fi becomes bearish and we go lower,
at some point this year.
And then,
you know,
the next bull market is just going to be a mechanical bounce.
We're going to probably get a new all time high on Bitcoin, but it's probably going to be quite marginal um and you know the other coins
i'm not sure about right like it it's all a lot of ponzi at the moment nobody's actually
using any of it right we've built a three trillion dollar industry that nobody uses what the is that can I get in here Wabi
yeah when you have Bitcoin at 40k it's a trillion 4k 100 billion 400 10 billion it's a heck of a lot
easier to move small money we've exhausted since 69K on November 11, 2021, to now because we're
below 69 adjusted for inflation. And you've got $2 trillion of value evaporated. It's heavy.
Almost nobody has a profit in it. And you've got all these people in IBIT, $200 billion in the different ETFs, and people are selling calls.
You've got BITK, you've got Winter, you've got Sailor with all the different things they're doing.
People are smothering the volatility.
So when I say volatility is coming down, but yet Bitcoin is stretched over the horizon,
that was a tractor beam as volatility came down.
We had volatility triple after Powell went to an easing bias
in August, or neutral bias in August of 2023,
and Bitcoin vol went from 31 to 92.
31 higher, and then we had the election,
and then it went to 92.
But then Bitcoin vol rolled over,
Bitcoin doubled from there as Bitcoin vol came down, and eventually Bitcoin got dragged on by its volatility. There are two tails in volatility. Either it drags you down, or it explodes higher.
So it's extremely deterministic. It's not not irrelevant it's just something that people may not know how to do
okay
so that's on that matter
the reason why it went up so much before
is because there was no market cap to move it up
now you're dealing in the trillions
and then you've got all the alts
4.28 trillion
we're down 1.77 trillion
we're down 41% from the high that's's a lot of money. Now, I wanted to speak to
Tina. Tina's been in the space for a long time. He's got a lot of people listen to him,
a lot of people hear him, and he came to a conclusion that this is not trading healthy,
and it's affecting the way he looks at it and describes it.
And he's saying, it's just we, nothing's helping. The fact that we increased the money supply from
897 billion to 10x really helped. That's ending, regardless of the reason reason he's observing it not trading well now i imagine
if he comes up after me speaking he'll say i was trying to proselytize symmetry watch it don't only
use the rearview mirror there are risks here because they're losing liquidity everywhere
and you can see it in the cresting of these four big companies, Microsoft, Apple,
Meta, and Amazon. Just too much money. We're 140% more than GDP. That's $40 trillion.
We peaked after dot-com at $4 trillion above GDP. The economy is three times the size,
so you can equate that to 12 versus 40 or four versus 13. In any event, massively over leveraged,
massive excellent liquidity. And he and I had a bit of attention because I was trying to give
symmetry and he was uncomfortable for whatever
reason. But at a certain point, he saw it. So first I'd like to ask him, has he hurt anyone that
offered symmetry prior to me? And does he now see that the market's there and we really have to have
more respect when something is big you could move stuff around
at a billion at 10 billion 100 billion you get your crews together you get your hyper liquids
you get your leverage but when you get serious money serious money involved you gotta you can't
keep it up it's the longest duration asset it's longer than silver or longest negative duration it's misbehaving
you can't not see it when he says volatility looks weak that's exactly the point he hit on
the insight who wants to trade bitcoin at a two percent expected daily return with all that risk. You could watch VXSLV,
silver volatility,
divided by Bitcoin volatility,
DVOIL.
And you can see that's just straight up.
You could see the movement
of traders, swing traders,
taking their capital
to try to offset the selling pressure
from the BITKers,
the IBITDers, the iBidders,
selling the vol,
because now you have 200 billion,
you could sell the volatility,
you get tighter and tighter spreads.
Less energy, less entropy, less levitation.
The money's moving.
And now where's the money moving?
And I mentioned it,
not to be critical of Tina.
He catches it, he gets it, he sees it.
And we'd actually acknowledge that I saw it earlier.
It's not important. But we're seeing it in silver. But now we're seeing it
in the bear tail of tech. And you can take advantage
of it. Wabi said, look at Sandisk. Weeks
ago we were talking about it. And yesterday, two days ago we were talking
about it. Yesterday we talked about maybe lighten up.
It's done.
Microsoft, IGV is collapsing,
and they're the biggest customers of the SMH.
How are they going to have their customers
if Microsoft is melting down?
Microsoft and Meta, which filled its gap today,
are 27% or more of NVIDIA's business. How are they going to maintain their
buying when their stocks are melting? So he's watching the price. He's looking in the context.
We had massive momentum. It was the number one asset in the world, but it's now the number
zero asset in the world. It's the worst asset in the world. Only MicroStrategy is worse.
It's the worst asset in the world.
Only MicroStrategy is worse.
MicroStrategy is down 75.
It dragged down Bitcoin.
Bitcoin's loss is caused deleveraging
for people who own Palantir and Roblox
and all that other stuff.
And that's now infecting.
And now volatility is at a downtrend
from a 60% higher Vixen than VIX.
It's up at the desk.
I put it up to that trend line. Now we're right at that level, 60, 50, 40. We blast. You could take the Vixen to twice the size of the
VIX because the money is moving from XLK, XLC to XLP, XLU, XL xlv and people who are using their exit sign as the vix they're mistaken
that's not going to go up a lot because so much money is rotating or moving or short covering or
unwinding the previous underweight or the leverage or whatever But you can see it. The hedge funds aren't long. They're looking to get shorter and allow that short to give institutions whale exit.
But Tina is seeing it. He's not some rookie guy who like perma bear. He's not Chris Whalen,
the great banking analyst who says there's nothing there he's an early adopter when no one even knows
it they lost him they lost him because the volatility the team the team the team is too old
they can't get the capital together yeah but like the whole the whole thesis of all the like og
bitcoiners was that bitcoin volatility would go down.
They actually wanted Bitcoin volatility to go down.
Don't believe what they say.
They were lying.
They were lying.
The thesis for those people was, in the early days, when it's growing and achieving adoption,
it's necessarily going to be high volatility because you can't be growing very fast with
low volatility. That's completely incoherent but once it's achieved global adoption and everyone in the
world knows about it and everyone has a bitcoin wallet well then the volatility will go down yes
there will still be some volatility but it'll go down and then once the volatility has gone down
we can use bitcoin for what it was always intended to be which is a peer-to-peer electronic payment method, right?
But it turns out that actually now the volatility is going down. Everyone's like, hey, I actually like volatility!
You know, I don't want payment. I want gains. I want to like 10x my money. I want to 100x my money.
I don't want to pay for a cup of coffee with bitcoin. That's boring. Like who wants to do that?
I can already pay for a cup of coffee with my credit card or debit card, right?
So, you know, you've got to be careful what you wish for, guys.
So along that line, you're asking Bitcoin, Tina, or you're asking,
where do you think Bitcoin could go?
I'm not asking that.
I'm asking where Bitcoin volatility can go.
Because if Bitcoin volatility continues to go down,
which I'm very, very, very, very,
and many more very confident that it will,
because we have 200 billion of Bitcoin ETFs
that can sell volatility.
You've got the futures.
Saylor is selling the volatility.
There's no buyers of the volatility.
Why won't it break down ultimately
after the next
potential spike why won't that volatility go down below 30 to an all-time low why won't it go to 20
bitcoin volatility is in a long-term macro downtrend it's that's exactly right yeah like
every other price as it gets mature and you're not going to see bitcoin have a powerful rally until that
thing goes down stays down stays down and down and down and stops having the bounces and then
bitcoin rises and then bitcoin vol follows and that's where you're going to get another four or
five decimals but that could be from anywhere i don't think bitcoin is going to get another four
or five decimals that's if it goes down low enough it could go up one, it could go up two, it could go up three.
But you're not going to stop going down until Bitcoin vol stops going down.
There's absolutely no way that's going to happen.
What's going to happen is Bitcoin volatility is just gradually going to grind down.
And the end game for Bitcoin is that it only gets maybe like 10 or maybe 10 percent uh annualized
growth rate right and so you and i are on the opposite side of the world when i was short up
top and you were still bullish on alts and i'm exactly opposite you because bitcoin is going to
go up four decimals either three or five probably. What's going to happen is the vol will smother,
people will be shorting the volatility like they short silver volatility, like they short gold
volatility. And then one day you're going to notice, hey, wait a sec, Bitcoin's going up.
It's at a one-year high. Bitcoin volatility is still stable. All of a sudden, people are going
to get scared. They're going to say, I'm short the skew. And as people try to buy back
their skew, they'll find out you cannot buy back your own skew. You'll have to grow Bitcoin from
either 100 to 10 million or from 1,000 to 10. That volatility is going to super excite because
Bitcoin is more than a currency. People will think it's a currency as the volatility goes down.
But if you understand volatility, and you've never worked with a block volatility trader at a major institution
if you knew volatility you'd say they'll bring it down and then it will bounce hard so we went from
600 down at 30 then to 20 then to 10 maybe but it's not six. It's not a currency. Volatility was super
exciting. So we're all going to be buying Bitcoin like drunken freaking sailors once Bitcoin's
rising and its volatility is stable and we're going to make all the money. We're not going to
say it's gone forever. Bitcoin volatility is never going away. It's being smothered because it was too high. That's the way volatility works in waves.
It doesn't die like a fossilized necrotic limp arm.
Volatility trades, but over different life cycles.
And we're going to have the greatest ever Bitcoin rally.
David?
Yeah.
David?
Yeah.
So I would agree you came to understand this well before me,
and you were talking about it extensively.
I will also say that I don't always understand everything you say.
Well, then what you need to do is you need to talk to me in public,
and I'll explain it so that everybody can understand it,
because you're smarter than virtually every single person.
you're smarter than virtually every single person except for Wabi on this basis and then you need
You're smarter than virtually every single person, except for Wabi, on this basis.
to ask me what doesn't make sense so we can help people that's all I'm not saying I don't want to
tell you I want to but I need smart people to ask the questions that get them to the key reason
and they can explain it down because we have an appointment below 10,000.
There's no math that doesn't accommodate that.
And volatility is going to keep on coming down.
And it's going to stay down.
And then at one point, people who understand this will have their capital waiting.
They'll make money in other things in the meantime.
In staples, then in bonds, and then in tech.
And then magically one day, Bitcoin's going to start going up again
after everyone left it for dead.
And it's going to go whether it's $1,000 to $10 million or $1,000 to $1 million.
But you have to get the volatility down.
You have to get the volatility of volatility down
so you don't have those bounces.
That's called kurtosis.
You have to have people think it's a currency. You've got to have structured notes built around it. Just like
when oil fell negative 42, that was a structured note out of China. You'll blow up a structured
note, you'll start it, and Bitcoin will actually go to a million or ten. But you've got to squeeze
out all the juice of the volatility, and you've got to squeeze out the juice in the volatility of volatility.
And maybe the juice in the volatility of volatility of volatility.
And then that's your promised land.
But we have to squeeze out the juice.
And we're going to.
We're deleveraging.
There was too much money that bought this stuff.
I'm game anywhere, anytime, any space that you want to talk with me.
We'll unpack it down to the rafters and
reconstruct everything.
Let's do that on Friday's show, guys.
We'll do that on Friday's show.
I'm going to go ahead and wrap up the stream here before the blood pressure sends me.
Forget about it.
And I am doing my spaces after you and yours.
All right.
I'm going to go ahead and, uh, and wrap up,
man.
We've been going for about three hours.
It was,
an absolutely incredible show.
I want to thank everyone.
Thank you to all the speakers.
Thank you to Naka,
Evan,
David,
Prometheus,
Tina,
a trades as well,
who also came up here.
And,
guys,
if this is your first time
tuning in and you've enjoyed the show over the last three hours and you want to keep up with
what i do here my name is wabi i'm the host of the show that you're listening to right now called
market talk we talk all things crypto and trad fi price action narratives news events all that good
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And as always, guys, the spaces are recorded.
We had some pretty interesting moments on today's show, some funny moments as well.
And that's the good thing about these recorded spaces.
You can always go back and catch some of these wild moments that you get on the panel.
And it's usually when markets react like this.
I find that very entertaining.
And I hope you guys do as well.
You guys always have the option to tune into other live streams that usually go live around this time frame.
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Take care, guys.
Bye-bye.
