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Market Talk: EMERGENCY UPDATE! #BITCOIN NEW YEAR TO DATE HIGHS!
Recorded: Dec. 5, 2023 Duration: 2:51:43Space Recording
Full Transcription
under more scrutiny and what i do act more stupidly
bought more jewelry more louis v my mama couldn't get through to me
the drama people suing me i'm on tv talking like it's just you and me
i'm just saying how i feel man i ain't one of the cosby's i ain't go to hill man
i guess the money should have changed them i guess i should have forgot where i came from
and you can't tell me nothing right excuse me was you saying something uh-uh you can't tell me
nothing you can't tell me nothing uh-uh you can't tell me nothing let up the suicide doors
this is my life homie you decide yours i know that jesus died for us but i couldn't tell you
who the side was so i parallel double bump that side ways old folks talking about back in my day
but homie this is my day class started two hours ago oh am i late no i already graduated and you can
live through anything if magic made it they say i talk with so much emphasis oh they so sensitive
whatever fix your lips like collagen to say something when you go into apology
let me know if it's a problem i'm ready max i'm ready to cook brother
what's going on everyone welcome welcome today for the bitcoin price man 44k
cz has been telling us for for months and months and months now and here we are man
um i'm pretty excited man it seems that uh the christmas rally has started a bit sooner rather than
later i honestly thought we wouldn't see these numbers until after the fomc which is next week
which in my anticipation we're probably going to get an official pause and man we actually have uh
some team members uh including max who are expecting prices of upwards of 50 to 52k
and of course as you guys know um i have a pretty massive position uh in celestia which has just been
absolutely phenomenal uh since its release and um of course you know we are seeing some other tokens that
we hold uh near and dear here at because bitcoin like big time which has just been on an absolute
parabolic face ripper which i honestly haven't uh seen since you know the summer of 2021 when axi infinity
was going absolutely bonkers despite its extreme high fdv man and you know i remember during one of our
shows last week uh we had like 80 of the entire spaces that we hosted that day i think it was like
last uh last thursday we spent about an hour and a half um talking about crypto gaming and uh you know
here we are and some of these uh gaming tokens are doing quite well but you know as far as uh the equity
markets go then on what i've been looking at over the last couple of weeks uh we have coinbase stock
another year to date high we have micro strategy another year to date high and you know i think
you know if the etf gets kicked down the road i think that honestly gives us more room to rally because
you know that sets shorts uh to get blown out honestly as they have over the last uh two months now but um
yeah we have josh and max joining us max i i know you didn't really uh have the chance to get a word
in uh yesterday when you got into your garage um you went to kingdom come but you know here we are at
44k and i i understand you have a couple of minutes to talk some shop so i'll stop rambling on i hope
everyone's doing okay welcome welcome back um you know we do have a giveaway going on here because
bitcoin by the way guys a link to that is here up on the nest and our pinned tweet uh you guys will
have a plethora of perks uh we'll touch upon that as the show goes on but if you guys are interested
in uh getting some free bitcoin and uh being gifted a couple of free months into our discord community
uh feel free to go to because bitcoin.com giveaway as always all of our previous spaces are under our
highlights tab if you ever miss a show want to catch up and all that stuff so um yeah we'll go
ahead and uh get started man max what's going on brother how are you feeling about the market today
what have you got to share with us yeah hey what's going on wabi actually correction there more than a
couple months of a free membership man we're giving away we're giving away a full year my man we're
giving away a full year so pretty cool man it's been growing like uh like crazy lately and it's been
really fun i'll share some of my thoughts on the market um and forgive me guys i'm a little bit
under the weather i was sick all of last week with a cold and now i have a sinus infection so it's just
winter hits and it just it just happens man it just it just happens i always i always get sick right
at the beginning of winter but either way uh we don't stop man we're here every single day
rain or shine sick or in in peak health but anyways uh i've been enjoying this rally man and
i've actually done the least amount of trading that i've done all year in q4 because i pack my bags at
the right time and i've been trading you know in and out and you know hitting some scalps and stuff like
that and um you know our community knows exactly where i've been you know placing bets but uh
i i like to think of it like this and i said this to our discord community probably about an hour ago
i said you know when you look at you go to like any brokerage and they have analyst ratings and it'll be
like buy hold or sell for an individual stock in my opinion bitcoin is in somewhere between hold and sell
right now in my opinion this is not where you start to get aggressive and double and triple
down and go all in and start throwing fresh liquidity at bitcoin i think if you've packed
from lower enjoy the ride you know but i don't think we're in buy territory right now i don't believe
that what i don't believe that for you know uh three to nine months and let's say three to six months
i don't think that for a three to six month out time period because i i don't want to talk about
out further because then you just get into this hypothetical of well actually 43k is like really
deep value because bitcoin's going to 10 bajillion dollars well yeah you know okay fine whatever cool
we'll talk about that later but i'm talking you know actionable three to six months i believe we are
now approaching potentially oversold potentially oversold or overextended region that doesn't mean
it's time to to sell it all but we're hitting some of my price targets i haven't taken any chips off the
table yet but i mean truthfully i'm looking for like 47 to 52 i think there's a world where i could see us
coming up to 60. um i won't be around you know i i probably won't be around to see it right now but i am
expecting upper 40s to low 50s for bitcoin and then i'm expecting bitcoin to stall out and then i'm
expecting total two and total three to rip up probably like oh man i'd say total three probably
40 to 50 percent from here um just for a ridiculous altcoin blow off top type of type of season i don't
think it'll last very long um and then i'm expecting a cool off period for the entire asset class
and i think in hindsight it will be very obvious how the events line up maybe the bitcoin etf gets
approved at some point uh early next year and we have one week of froth and then that marks the top
um i don't really know i don't know how it will go but i'm just sticking with the levels i'd like for
total three to reach you know 580 to 600 billion i think that that's a really good spot for me to unload
my altcoins um which again i mean it's 35 to 40 to 50 percent but the inherent risk that you run with
you know total three or altcoins that are not ethereum is that some of them will pump like crazy
and others won't move at all so you know you run that risk um total two you know uh i i could see
probably 800 and 860 to you know maybe even a trillion and you know look again i'll just i'll
just say i i think that we're between we're we're not in the buy zone for me for anything i'm riding
what i have and i'm hitting rotations to be clear i i think it's appropriate to rotate um if you're
doing so in a calculated fashion uh but i'm not throwing fresh capital capital at anything right now
you know i think this is just where you hold and enjoy the ride and slowly dynamically dca out of
you know out of your assets um and and look here here's one thing just a personal note what i'm
hoping for um and it won't get in the way of me selling when we reach the levels that i identified
months ago because you come up with a plan and you have to stick to it it always feels different when you
get there whether you're trying to buy a capitulation or sell um you know a rip upwards you have
to stick with your plan but what i'm hoping for is that i can sell some of my assets some of my
crypto and also my equities after january 1st um i'm hoping that the whales the big boys that really
dictate uh where these markets go have the same objectives as me where they're up a bunch you know
unrealized this year and they're gonna say okay we got to keep this market propped up until january 1st
then we generate exit liquidity so that we can kick the capital gains uh tax liability down the road
until april of 2025 so that's what i'm hoping for i'm trying not to sell anything before uh before
january 1st because i don't want to get hit with a big tax bill so i'm somewhat optimistic that they'll
they'll time it out that way because equities are up a bunch this year crypto's up a bunch this year
and you know we basically have three weeks until you know until we can sell without having an
immediate tax liability so fingers crossed for that um let's hope it times out as such but just
something to consider as well um you know we are up a lot this year you know if you've just had a
i don't know somewhat standard portfolio of risk you know across the board for those that take a more
active approach to the markets so yeah fingers crossed i can sell after january 1st but again i
think you know for those that are coming in late when you go to like you know your robin hood or td
ameritrade or schwab or whatever they have you know section for analyst ratings it says buy hold or sell
i think that bitcoin and crypto as a whole right now from for a three to six month out time period that
we're talking about is somewhere between hold and sell you know if you started buying bitcoin earlier in
the year and you're up a bunch this is probably where someone like the quote unquote normies pop
in because they're seeing it talked about a bunch and they're feeling fomo and they're oh it's gonna
go to an all-time high and then you know probably won't go there immediately you know or maybe it
could i don't know you know maybe this time is truly different but i'm just talking my book you
know i'm talking my strategy and my plan and that if i can hang on to this roller coaster and my assets
continue to appreciate until the first week of january i'm probably a seller at that point you
know if i can sell bitcoin for 45 to 55k uh sometime in very early q1 i'm probably going to do it because
i think that at some point next year um we're probably going to get a pretty standard 30 to 40
correction you know before the bitcoin having or maybe even after the bitcoin having that's not that
uncommon either um and again that's a risk too i've had i've had to do this before when you sell
bitcoin in hopes to buy it back lower um sometimes you have to buy back and higher i've had to do that
i did that this year i sold some bitcoin at 25k and i had to buy it back at 28k now granted i was
trading in between and i ended up actually outperforming you know that 3k deficit that i ran but the point
being is whenever you sell bitcoin it's it's a risky decision because you might not be able to
buy that bitcoin back and you also have to take into consideration you know the tax consequences of
doing so um so you have to be very very particular about it and for me right now um you know look it's
december i'm up a bunch on a lot of my crypto and if i sell right now and i have to give you know 30 to
40 percent to the government um and then i hope to buy it back you know sometime in 2024 on a 30 to
40 percent dip it doesn't do me any good you know there's only a point for me knowing that you know
i have to pay taxes in april um you know if i can push if i can sell in january and then push that tax
liability down the road until april of 2025 you know then it then it makes sense for me because then
i'll have 15 months 16 months to outperform uh you know any liabilities that i incur from selling my
bitcoin so i need to give myself time to recoup that you know increase my bitcoin denominated
holdings my bitcoin denominated net worth and then also uh you know make up what i have to pay in capital
gains taxes and i'm gonna need time to do that and i think that a lot of people are probably in that
same camp um a lot of a lot of big money that's been buying bitcoin this year that maybe they'd be
looking to take some off the table but yeah they don't want to have to pay that capital gains tax
uh similarly to me but anyways that's a little bit technical right i just wanted to speak my
mind let you guys know what i'm thinking but yeah i think we're somewhere between you know just kind
of enjoy the ride i'm not throwing fresh capital at this stuff um you know but i am chasing a little
bit a little bit of beta like i'm playing some some options um i bought some robin hood calls um
last week that are up like 150 with our discord community so the thesis for that one as well was
you know where are the normies where is retail gonna fomo into bitcoin you know at 50k well it's
probably gonna be on robin hood you know so just kind of left curving it a little bit price looked
good the technical setup looked good we scooped up some really cheap uh you know q2 robin hood calls
and they're already up like a 2x so it's great to see bitcoin above 44k again but yeah i think uh
you know i think things are getting just a little bit frothy um but i'm holding i'm enjoying the ride
max brother um i'm not sure if it was you or tucker but you were saying usually december
each btc likes to kind of just chill out and then q1 it tends to be um you know some seasonal some
seasonal tailwinds for the all coin space so i know we don't really uh i don't i don't i know i
know we don't really like touch upon this kind of froth uh here on spaces as much but for q1 man
what specifically uh are you looking at man i i heard that uh you got a pretty nice position on on tia
brother yeah yeah that's a that's a position i actually took this morning um it was in our discord
call i jumped in at um 8 47 8 48 went up almost immediately so i'm i'm really looking for you know
the new shiny toy tia celestia not only double digits but probably like 20 bucks i think pulling
a 10x from you know its public listing price which was a you know between two bucks and two dollars 50
cents roughly i think there's a big psychological barrier at a 10x and we see a lot of projects
hit that 10x um and then they you know they get stuck a little bit so i'm looking for a 20 tia i
don't know if i'll continue to hold this position that long again uh we'll see we'll see how things
shape up but yeah in regards to eth btc for those that tune in regularly and i try to make it to as
many of these as i possibly can but um i've got a a young a young son at home and you know i also start
my days really early so wobby kind of works the night shifts and then um i'm i'm early morning
with the most of the team but anyways uh we we've been accumulating ethereum pretty heavy uh and that
started early q4 and we knew that we might be somewhat early to that trade or that rotation
eth btc has been you know a little bit stubborn it's been holding 0.05 um but it hasn't it hasn't
been performing like we had hoped but we knew that going into you know a heavy ethereum portfolio that
q4 is typically a very very poor month for the eth btc valuation and and also not so stellar for
eth usd in comparison to other assets so we knew that we might be three four five months early even
but we recognize that hey you know eth is sitting here at at the time when we bought eth is sitting at
15 to 1600 bucks um even if the eth btc valuation bleeds it would be in our best interest to start
you know purchasing ethereum now at what we believed at the time was very cheap valuations and in
hindsight you know that's aged very well but we recognize that it's possible that you know our our
eth underperforms something like bitcoin um but you know typically again we know that q4 is a very
poor month for the eth btc valuation on the other side of that coin december and january have
historically been the best times with the highest 90 day roi for buying ethereum so i think that you're
going to start to see a lot more eyes on eth and i think maybe partly and due to the cyclicality of it
a lot of people recognize these trends and respect these trends um and maybe it's the self-fulfilling
prophecy right people we have data accessible on historical performance of ethereum and other
assets and they say well historically it's performed well during this time period and bad during this
one i guess i'll buy it during this time and not during this time so who knows exactly why maybe it's
just psychology um but also you know i think that there's maybe something to be said about speculation
you know from this ethereum etf and maybe it's a little left curve i've also seen a little bit too
much chatter around this but there might be some truth to it where perhaps depending on where
bitcoin is upon its etf approval finally it might end up being you know one week pump and then a sell
the news event where most of the the appreciation has come before the actual announcement you know
hence a sell the news event and i think if eth uh etf maybe happens sometime in the middle of next year
or second half of next year i don't really know um i think once the bitcoin etf gets approved then it
opens the door for you know wild and dubious speculation on when the ethereum etf will get
approved and i think it will also time out um with you know pretty obvious technical bottom for the
ebtc valuation where we start to see that rotation into ethereum um so there might be a lot of things
coming to a head where january hits people then you know have 15 16 months to you know sell their
bitcoin and recoup any tax hits that they would take they're going to rotate into eth to speculate
on when the eth you know etf is approved and again the eth btc valuation right now is attempting to print
well potentially attempting to print a weekly uh a weekly rsi bulldiv and you know kind of its its bottom
range carve out so i think the charts always kind of tell the story and for me um you know i'm
certainly interested in eth here even given what's happening with the eth btc valuation um but you have
to recognize that even though december and january um typically have the highest 90 to 120 day roi
for purchasing eth um you know these things can take a little bit of time you know even if the eth btc
valuation starts moving up over the next 60 90 120 days it's probably going to be a post bitcoin
halving thing until we really see eth btc outperform and i'm talking you know eth btc rallying back to
you know 0.1 0.12 which are kind of my targets back of mind targets for next cycle i'm expecting
eth btc to pull at least a 2x from the current valuation uh but i do believe that we're going to
see that major uh that major expansion upwards in the eth btc valuation post bitcoin halving but that
doesn't mean in the short term we can't have you know months of outperformance even if it's only eth
btc going to 0.06 0.065 0.07 little stair steps up but i don't think you're going to see that real
expansion or parabola in the valuation until april may june of next year at least
yeah we're about four months away um and a couple of days four months and about 10 days away from the
halving um of course like you know depending on like the block reward and all that stuff it could be
um a few days earlier a few days later but we're about four months away uh from the halving and i'm
kind of looking at the 2016 halving year more so than 2020 i kind of think man like
if you look at the bitcoin chart and really just like the broader crypto market if it wasn't for
covid i honestly think we would have like hit 20k um going into the halving max have you looked at that
like have you looked at the trajectory of where bitcoin was going um up until of course like late
february when when equity started to just melt downwards and kind of say like all right if
this whole pandemic never happened you know what would this chart look like because to me it really
seemed like you know we were about uh you know just spike upwards to 14k and then right out of the
halving we would have made uh an all-time high yeah i think i think it's interesting exercise to
play around with like what would the chart look like what would you know where would we have been
if covid never happened but i also think that you could make the case these markets are very sort of
elastic and the snap back from that covid drop led to a much quicker expansion up to the original 64k
all-time high um than would have happened if we didn't have that capitulatory event you know in
march so um i don't know you know i i think i don't like i don't like to get too deep into that
like what what would the charts look like what would it have been like if that didn't happen because at
the very same time from a technical perspective like i'm a pretty active trader the march you know
2020 capitulation due to covid wick down like perfectly we backfilled every single higher
time frame inefficiency on the chart we also retested you know multiple multi-week or monthly demand
that was built down at four thousand um and then we sprung back perfectly so is it coincidence or were
we always going to come back down there but perhaps just in a different fashion uh without as much panic
or you know anxiety attached to it i don't know you know i don't really know for sure but i know that
that was an absolutely textbook perfect uh retest and yeah i don't you know i don't think you can plan
for things like that really if you time it you know you have to be pretty quick but yeah i mean i think
i think it's an interesting exercise well look speaking of charts man uh josh i want to pass the mic over to
you i know uh you were in our market check stream on friday and you had two key levels played out 41.5
and i think 45.3 and we're actually ripping right now like we're a bit above 44k right now we're at
we're at 44k and some change um and you know brother i want to know what's what's uh the next move for
you man are you anticipating somewhat of a cool off going into fomc and you know perhaps right after
uh that official pause we see alts just going nuts after that and then we have that hefty pullback
around christmas time because brother i'll tell you this man i i've got a gut feeling i have a massive
gut feeling that uh post fomc man these alts might just turbo charge and put in a a pretty clean
blow off top man and i'm looking at some charts like luna uh classic and my gosh man uh that thing
is a prime example of a blow off on the daily man so we'd love to get your thoughts man what are you
looking at brother welcome back by the way yeah dude thanks for having me uh right now i mean we're
kind of crushing through these levels that we were just looking for and they're going to be liquidation
zones so right now we still got obviously break that 50 45 100 zone uh but after that i mean it's
we're starting to get some liquidation levels up around the 50k level uh but i'm kind of in agreement
with everybody on this panel i think you know it makes most sense to take profits this month i'm not
adding any more positions into unless they're like you know small like you could swing trade and
anybody can long right now and i feel like make some money um you know but at least for long-term
positions here we've been in for months and months at this point and i'll be taking profits and i i'm
in agreeance with max here i'm hoping that means that's going to be the first of january leading up to
the 10th um but you know markets tend to not play out exactly how you want them to so
really hoping we can kind of make it to that that threshold but what i'm really watching right
now guys is just the january 10th announcement i mean any day you have cnbc boomers talking about
how they might be bullish about bitcoin once it hits 100k or now start talking about it in the sense
that oh it this this this has value for like the first time after just relentlessly uh bashing it
year over year and having pomp on the stream now to uh you know discuss bitcoin's price action uh that's
a red flag for me another red flag is going to be max kaiser coming out and you know teasing rumors
of a half a trillion dollar purchase for bitcoin um and you know and all this kind of screams to me
is just psychology of those markets i feel like you know 90 plus of crypto twitter is just a bunch
of grifters right now that are saying that they bought when in reality i know a lot of these
influencers out there are actually in fact on the sidelines some of them even in debt and some of them
and some of them literally sold the bottom of these markets and you know they're just getting
an intense serious amount of fomo after just being massively depressed and we're in this disbelief
rally right here and i think everybody on these panels we've talked about it we've all expected
the sanders rally it's it's played out perfectly but if you actually look at like consumer spending
and the overall underlying data behind it you know our economy is not in this strong position so while i
expect the fomc meeting to yes kind of do what the market expects and just say you know we're going
to come out we're going to pause for a longer period of time you know i think we're all anticipating
them to pause those rates probably consecutively up until maybe q4 of 2024 um unless something breaks
before then but you know with all that said the levels i'm watching for bitcoin here is that 45k
zone because it just came out today right blackrock guys was buying through their private trust it
wasn't much but you know these markets have been being played by these institutions ever since ftx fell
down so you know are we going to get that actual approval on january 10th um yeah i'm very skeptical
and and cautiously optimistic when it comes to that because either way if we actually compare it to you
know a gold-based etf like the united states one that was passed in november of 2004 we had a pretty
significant sell-off of 300 billion dollars in value as gold was at about a three trillion dollar
market cap or so it was like a 10 sell-off and so you know we're on like our eight consecutive week
of up only in this market this is not the time i'm coming out here and being incredibly bullish on
the market like yes i believe we're in a bull run yes i anticipate we're going to see higher and higher
prices but you know as someone that's been in for the entire consecutive you know duration of this
bull market or bear market it's i'm scraping profits off and i'm really hoping that we can
do that uh in that first week of january before what i believe is uh actually going to be a denial
of the etf and i feel like that's the one thing nobody wants to talk about is the reality of where
the sec stands right now they sued binance and hopefully joe can come up here later because i'd be
really um interested in talking about just the litigation behind that but from you know a logical
perspective at least as an outsider i'm not going to be a legislator someone that knows
how to actually completely analyze this but it would make sense for me that the sec would be
able to postpone the approval of the arc share etf with the current status of the doj uh getting
binance to admit guilt to not just defraud of a market manipulation in general and so you know
seeing all the revisories of these etf filings with blackrock with bitwise them start to actually
have to force into uh they have to put like in writing that bitcoin may be a security whatever
gary gesler wants to you know add in for his personal reasoning we're starting to see them yes
they're negotiating right now uh but i i'm very curious to know where eric baltunas and cypher are
getting this 90 chance of an approval rating on that on that 10th my my best guess would be it gets delayed
one more time maybe they forced them to take them to court but i would i would think that maybe they
reach you know they reach out to arc here and go hey look we're going to work with you we're going to
negotiate but we just have this collapse of a large exchange or not collapse but the takedown of the
largest exchange out here for market manipulation and fraud you know we need further time and
investigations and know if you want to go through you know an a or b type of process for these filings
themselves because they want the sec it seems like they want to uh kind of have these spot etfs
work very similar to the custody of a futures based etf where uh obviously the majority of the market
wants blackrock to hold the bitcoin physically so that's like the most important date is that january
10th um and at this same exact time we have the largest consecutive group of holders between two to
three years these are your long-term holders that are in profit they make up of 33 percent or something
crazy of the active bitcoin supply and i would just imagine it's a pretty easy uh point to see okay this
gets denied we have a healthy retracement and a correction uh nothing like we're going to go to zero or
anything but a historical 20 to 30 percent pullback and that is my focus right there for moving kind of
into that first week of january could i be wrong 100 but you know if one thing teaches if we've learned
anything throughout these multiple cycles we've been a part of in the years of you know just market
experience is when you start seeing all these grifting influencers come out and start saying we're
back in a bull run and these are the same exact people that were saying bitcoin is going to go to 8k
going to go to 10k going to go to 3k um and start making outrageous price predictions based off
a completely speculative announcement that's when i start getting really really cautious and so that's
kind of what i'm looking forward to uh moving into the next 30 days and i'll kind of uh stop it there
because i'll keep ranting josh that would actually be pretty crazy man if we just like start dumping off
of the yearly open man but we were talking about you know on these shows lately and throughout the last
couple of weeks is like you know we all have bullish price targets right for myself i had three scenarios
for the end of the year right and of course all these spaces are recorded but back in january and
december i gave three choices right we either end the year from like 29 to 32k given like that was
you know sort of the bottom that we were in in uh in the summer of uh 2021 when we had bottomed out
um and then we have the uh like when luna started to have like some issues and all that stuff and
that was right around you know 35 uh to 38k and then we have uh the march 2022 high when luna uh peaked
out at about 120 and nfts were going crazy the entire timeline in march and april of 2022 was just
filled with like animal pfps and you know invisible rocks and you know just flat out froth um and we
were right around you know 48 point 48.2 48.3 right around those levels but that was like an extreme
case extreme case and you know that one in particular was you know entertaining the melt-up theory
which is basically you know reach all-time high first half of uh 2024 and then bleed out uh second
half of uh 2024 but not really anticipating this crazy 70 80 percent correction like you know most of
the uh melt-up theorists like to say right and you know i i would say like perhaps a double top ish
scenario so maybe like a deviation above 69k at 73 to 75k right and with this momentum that we've
been seeing right it's and it's mostly on spot too like there's an aggressive spot that are on binance
and it's just hammering away at the ask and you know usually when you see bitcoin lead with these next
legs all coins tend to follow it so it's like it's a broader market rally and not this like
speculative speculative um nature that was kind of discussed at the bottom uh with some crowds where
it's like oh only bitcoin's gonna run uh because everything's gonna be called a security and cryptos
no longer gonna have a run right it's always at the bottom where it's like all crypto is dead right
but now it's like oh crypto is dead but bitcoin's alive right whether as in the previous bear market
in 2018 it was like this asset class is never going to come back so um from a sentiment standpoint it's
kind of like changing right so perhaps the next bottom of the bear market which i think is going
to be like late 2026 early 2027 it's going to be like oh like bitcoin and eth are alive but everything
else is dead right it's it's crazy um how this like sentiment occurs but i i definitely see that josh
on the timeline like it's either people that were super bearish they just disappear and they're like
super inactive now and and they've gone on private and all that stuff or it's now that like they're
enthusiastic about the market and then they mention like a few micro caps and all that stuff and it's just
you know super outlandish uh things on the timeline and you know with uh certain individuals they were
selling mattresses they were talking about mattresses man at the bottom and uh trying to be like
like like one of those uh podcasters like like kind of like a like a joe rogan right talking about pop
culture and um all that kind of stuff at the lows like man the lows are really something else man you
always have some ridiculous uh things happen man but um josh what are your views on like you know
how the altcoin market might perform uh in q1 do you think it's just going to be choppy for something
like you know an ethereum or a solano or do you kind of think that like all right now that bitcoin has
broken um you know the previous trend of hey let's chop for a bit have six to nine days of like
upside action chop back down right and yeah brother feel free to go as crazy as you want man
gaming man we're we're here to talk broader uh crypto market man not just like the same two or
three tickers brother because let me tell you man let me tell you like we haven't really seen this kind
of price action on bitcoin where it's consistently curving upwards practically since like 2021 man
but i i i'm i'm seeing more of like 2016-ish 2017-ish type price action where it looks a lot cleaner not
so like distributive and choppy which is usually caused by a lot of like people propping price up
via derivatives right so i'm glad to see this kind of price action develop and i truly believe man i
i truly believe that like you know when cz stepped down that was like the point where we're so back
right we're extremely back and you know you have richard doing all these spaces doing all this pr work
for binance and basically transforming it into a trad fi kind of kind of institution right which is
why i ultimately believe that you know this this this uh this bull market is going to be very
reminiscent of 2016 2017 man so um looking forward to your thoughts from this man yeah and i think you
know honestly i'm stoked richard you know doing what he's doing i think it was as expected coming from
the adgm it's you know this is a this was trad fi coming in and i think people you know for the longest
time wanted these institutions to come in for this adoption but didn't realize what that actually would
entail it's like that's that's not a bullish thing you know these institutions and these you know these
financial cartels so to speak didn't just magically change since you know the year 2000 to today uh
and to good people that this is a capitalism this is capitalism as a whole this is a capitalist society
that this is a free market so you know they're gonna come in and take advantage and step on these
retailers which is why i kind of i don't know if you've seen aot but i use that rumbling image uh
because i still anticipate that but dude for all sure i do attack on titan man great so so freaking
good man nobody's watched that if you've never watched anime that is the one that you need to
watch because it's going to make you realize it is literally about how society just works in our world
today but uh yeah so you know whether or not we get this correction coming up i think if bitcoin were
to see that pullback of 20 to 30 percent uh altcoins would definitely see 30 to 50 percent pullbacks you
know they're just way smaller in terms of market cap for people that are new to this space you
generally when you see bitcoin drop 10 to 20 percent your altcoins are dropping about twice as much in
terms of value this has to do with trading pairs as well as volume and quite a few different factors but
uh they're lower market caps and they see a lot more volatility uh in terms of you know are we
going to see altcoin rips i i think that's 100 certain and you brought up d side to that point
there's a lot of really bullish narratives moving into 2024 and 2025 you have huge seed rounds and
fundings uh starting to start out today that should be going through in march if not by the end of may
uh and that is i'm speaking in specifically in terms of d side there but the gaming sector as well
gaming's getting a lot of momentum again um i think that's you know definitely bottomed out here but
gaming has a long ways to go uh but you're going to see you know all these trends and these narratives
start to just kind of catch grip and keep moving as we approach that bitcoin having and after that
uh i i think ultimately this is just it's impossible and i'd have to say i i don't know in the sense of
what's going to happen in these next four to five months because we're at a point in bitcoin's history
where people are trying to start and ask themselves is this time different because we're getting you
know bitcoin's at 44k before the bitcoin having we're seeing a really massive move to the upside
and people are claiming 60k now even before that bitcoin having takes place so you know is this
cycle different in that sense i like to think i don't i don't like those words and i like to relate
it to historical charts and again that's why i go to the buy the rumor sell the news type of event
with the etf filing so you know in terms of altcoins i think it's it's inevitable you're going to get the
solana type rallies again um you know your vcs are going to come in here and inject a disgusting
amount of capital if you do have qatar and you know these um these these foreign countries that
are starting to invest high amounts of capital into this market that's going to push you know all
these altcoins up higher and higher as well you have hong kong looking to issue their own spot bitcoin
etf which means you know they'll probably have bitcoin and eth within hong kong but very shortly after
you're going to have hong kong based cryptocurrencies or cryptos that uh have those ties to shanghai as
well as pumping so i don't know if that's going to be layer ones layer twos or decentralized storage
um you know there's that narrative that's that's starting to formulate as well and i expect that to
kind of jump into the markets uh probably around summertime so i'm incredibly bullish man i'm just in
the short term here looking at markets and historical time frames and saying all right uh you know what's
really going on is this completely moving based off speculation uh and if so should i take profits
and scrape some off the top in order to accumulate more and just stack my portfolio even further for
the continuation of a bull run after the bitcoin having josh man it's it's gonna be wild if they
actually delay this thing um because this market is just propped up on a ton of narratives and it'll
suck up anything man and like my my dubious speculation again just pure dubious speculation
on my end i kind of think that like should this thing get delayed i think the rumblings of like
the eth etf are gonna are gonna start and i think that like you know whatever dip occurs in q1 pre and
post having that's the one where you kind of go crazy right and you know the only historical data
that we have so far to kind of like look upon during the having years is 2020 and uh in 2016 right so
if we're looking at 2016 then you know it's practically right after the having where btc
pulled back like 35 but actually man like you're definitely right that like this surge is kind of uh
alarming especially like this close into the having like we've never been this close from
making an all-time high going into the having in previous history and i think like should these
events line up i think the market is going to be taken by surprise we actually have like a member on
our discord his name is uh his name is sisu reborn and you know he he's pressing on the hammer saying that
like you know most market participants are not positioned in the very very slightest um for an
all-time high before the having right none absolutely none not me not anybody man i think only like
i mean outside of like the melt-up theory guys which again i i do think it's flawed in the price targets
to be honest but the jet the general direction of the melt-up theory i could entertain but the target
it's the context right it's the context like all right cool like first half of 24 awesome because of
the pause second half of 24 it's a bit you know disgusting because of cuts and all that stuff but
it's really only the first like three cuts in my opinion that that's that's really going to do
um some damage especially given that we're in an election year and my dubious speculation is that
we're going to have like a new administration both like the white house and the sec but you know with
that being said man like you know kind of talking some higher time frame uh outlooks man uh what what
are your thoughts uh for 2024 overall man especially like for the for the second half right i i know like
like most of these shows that we do both here on x and also uh like on youtube are more like
short term kind of stuff but would love to know like your higher time frame outlook especially knowing
that like you know you do speak with individuals that may influence price because i'll tell you this
man a lot of people say you know i don't want to get involved in politics i don't want to get involved
in news events and all that stuff but the fact of the matter is you know a lot of that stuff actually does
um impact you know the way this market functions just just look at what happened at ftx right you
know what i'm saying like you don't you don't do what sbf does right when you're actually doing fraud
prime selling people's assets and then you talk to your ops right like you talk to the people that
can actually indict you and you know put you behind bars for the rest of your life you you just don't do
that right um so yeah i'll pass the mic over to you now brother yeah as i say the the the famous
phrase you know you may not care about politics but politics 100 care about you um is you know
anybody in crypto it completely relies on politics and the legislation and the rulemaking that is passed
from the representatives that you know you may or may not vote into place so you really have to pay
attention to these markets and honestly i think i'm pretty bullish on the terms of the the
presidential election markets tend to rally as well coming out of the next presidential election
we are going to be in my opinion at a time of a high interest rate you know again i'm expecting those
higher you know base interest rates to be paused for a longer period of time and that is going to
approach around that presidential election so i don't know if there's necessarily something that breaks
before and then the election happens and that's what causes everybody to be bullish once again
because administrative positions are taken over or replaced or you know whatever the outcome decides
to be from that but of course if you know for crypto in general i'm voting for somebody that
has pro crypto red legislation i want someone that is going to be in an sec position of you know more
of a uh uh you know with senator loomis type beliefs right you want someone that's there that's kind of like
uh appears or you know someone that's not a gary gensler so to speak uh if your democrats win you
have gary gensler probably going to be pushing for the secretary treasury position like it's these are
the outcomes you have to be aware of moving into who and who you're not voting for and if you're not
voting who's going to be you know elected who's not going to be elected so um in terms of the election
okay let's let's back up a bit because we got to get there first so you know the overall outlook here
is i am anticipating that markets specifically in the crypto side i'm not speaking about stocks
or commodities in this sense um i do believe bitcoin is going to trade more towards that
commodity status but ultimately just approach a bullish narrative moving up after the halving
up to the end of the year uh it's really going to be dependent on the interest rates and how long
we can remain at a higher level for the for these paused rates and i couldn't i couldn't comfortably
say i know what that's going to look like i just know that's going to be a lot longer than people
anticipate in my opinion so um you know for you had you had multiple different questions on there
was that just with the presidential election or do you want me to speak off past that
honestly bro honestly bro it'd be more of like uh more of the former right because i i i truly believe
bro i truly truly believe uh i i can't say it like you know on a recorded space but i think like
if there's one candidate that makes it you know back uh to the white house i honestly believe that
this country will go back to the same easing that we saw that we saw during obama's second term which
you know that's when the nasdaq finally made a new all-time high same thing with microsoft and all that
stuff after you know a 10 plus year lagging period and i think we're at the very least again dubious
speculation on my end i think in 2025 uh we have two to three quarters of qe and we go back to uh one
to two percent rates which would basically take us at zero because i don't see inflation having a one
hand so i think it's going to be at like two percentish um yeah but i could be wrong but
essentially two to three quarters of qe and um real rates at practically zero
yeah i wish i could share the screen in here just for the audience because that that's
you know i agree but what i think a lot of people look over is the fact that every time the feds
pivot there's a massive pullback within the markets like and i turn when they pivot to the downside so
when they start lowering those interest rates it's generally because something cracks in these
markets and so that i think correlates around the next presidential election uh it could be before
and honestly that could be more of q3 around august september that we could initially get that first
sign of uh markets deciding to pivot but markets are also at i mean you can't you can't hide the fact
that markets are reacting completely different after we printed nine trillion dollars over the last three
years so you know markets are already anticipating these higher prolonged periods of rates and it's
like okay well how is the nasdaq moving in this volume how are we hitting new highs how is crypto and
risk on assets uh being purchased at these levels even though there's low volume and so there's
you know i think there's a lot of data points that are highly manipulative right now
one is definitely the consumer spending um i just spoke to a ceo that's of arculus actually
his name's adam lowe not ceo the cpo chief product officer uh and he sees that the consumer spending
is still very very high and they're expecting it to be at that pace all the way into q1 of next year
however the outlook is you have to realize people are maxing out their credit cards they're you know
taking on more and more debts they have zero personal savings rates and how long we can kind
of kick this can down the road is the question that everybody has today a report just came out that
uh housing sales are at a low that we haven't seen since the 2008 financial crisis um you know
commercial real estate is doing really really bad right now and so you know again it's kind of that
whenever that pivot does happen i'm just going to expect what markets have always done and it is 10
out of 10 every time that the fed pivots that there's this downside reaction to a lot of these risk
on assets now i believe that that will more effectively uh hurt altcoins because i do believe
and i don't know if it's in this next year guys or it's in two years or three years but something i've
studied for a long time at this point is the marginal cost of production with bitcoin miners
in their hash rates and we are seeing more and more approaches towards not just the innovation side
of more efficient miners but the axis of negative energy consumption of uh the axis of the wasted
energy market and i actually anticipate that your exxon and conoco phillips and your larger even gas
prom out of russia and your your largest largest oil providers and energy providers are going to start
utilizing bitcoin through proof of work to lower their carbon emission costs and actually increase
their gdps uh because they can access this once illiquid market and for that reason is that is
what makes me disgustingly bullish on bitcoin that's where i get those price predictions of that five six
hundred thousand dollars in the next 10 to 15 years because bitcoin itself is the world's greatest
digital commodity it can access a market that no other asset can fundamentally on this earth and it's
disgustingly scarce and so that is where the there's this transitional period and i don't know
if it's going to be a super cycle for all of altcoins i don't anticipate that i do believe just based
off the economic hitman policies we've seen both the united states and china implement on the world over
the last three decades that the second world and third world nations need an out and the only
decentralized at scale currency you can create is going to be bitcoin gold isn't something everybody
can access and sorry i meant commodity gold is you know centralized based off the location bitcoin
could be mined anywhere so it doesn't matter if you're a second world country in the middle of
africa or a south eastern you know a southern eastern asian country in the indo-pacific if you
have volcanoes if you have heat if you have wind if you have water this is now collectively an asset
that will allow through defy a lot of second world and third world countries to be able to access
and break out of the current uh financial cartel status that they've been embedded to with the
world bank and the international bank uh through china so you know again i can go on a tangent about
why i'm bullish on bitcoin uh but that approaches the average 10 to 15 year cycle that we get in
every single market which is 10 to 15 years you have a cycle where your your s p your stock your
equities are going to pump and then you have a 10 to 15 year cycle where commodities you know tend to
pump and whether or not that's through the soviet you know a time of war a time of crisis uh there's
nothing on the macro scale of things that tells me that tensions are going to lower and that
tensions are going to slow down we have massive developments in the middle east nobody's even
talking about ukraine right now let alone what's taking place in the indo-pacific i mean it's very
clear that our country is being ran by a military industrial complex that feeds off these you know
off these conflicts and these crises that are continuously expanding and the world's waking up to that so
you know and i can bring up all the data points and all the the reasoning behind that but that is
where bitcoin again i'm separating bitcoin from altcoins is disgustingly bullish as a commodity
for the foreseeable future and i don't know if that's 2024 2025 i'm anticipating that is still 2026
and probably further out but before then uh it's it's inevitable that we're going to see altcoins
pump this is the first time in history that markets can access global liquidity and the reason why
guys i'm talking about being bearish in the short term like i'm a long-term bull i'm a perma bull at
this point for these markets is because i'm an insider on the industry in the terms of knowing these every
single influencer nearly at a personal level and i know what they talk about in their friend groups
in these group chats i'm in influencer chats i'm in with these ceos and founders etc all getting early
stage alpha early insight getting invited to i just got invited to zuzalu again which is going to be
with uh i think 400 of your top scientists and researchers for longevity and decide you know i
hear people talk and this is where i get cautious is in the times of these markets where people that
were selling the bottom that are completely on the sideline are now faking it and grifting their way
to the top acting like hey you need to buy now i i've literally seen multiple influencers that have
hundreds of thousands of followers that are not in the market purchasing at 44 to 48k bitcoin at the
same time your long-term holders for two to three years which make up the majority of the active
supply in bitcoin are now in profit for the first time as we approach the announcement and speculation
of a spot etf announcement on january 10th if that's denied you have now two months until the march
base etf filings and from that outlook i'm like okay it would make sense that these people are going to
take profit so it's like i just think it's a it's definitely not the smartest position to be in to
buy at these levels when you could have bought at 15k 20k 25k 30k 38k etc so you know altcoins itself
though whether it's the side whether it's game social five whether it's game five whatever industry
you're a part of the other side of this is money is coming um now i've gone down the science route a lot
lately just because i'm very into it and there's a million parts of the industries that you can go
and cryptos a million sub niches but i know specifically in longevity in biotech it's not
hundreds of millions it's billions of dollars that is going to be starting to fund the sector
there's one thing in the world that every billionaire can agree on no matter what it doesn't
matter if they're a socialist a conservative a nationalist a dictator they all want to live longer and
they're going to fund longevity cycles for that reasoning and longevity is starting to enhance
their research through ai and other than the blockchain so that is a bullish narrative that i
am just continuously looking to accumulate and learn more and more about uh there's been massive
breakthroughs in science with like mrna which is going to be able to um kind of let's go down to
cancer therapeutics really quick where you know right now chemotherapy kind of just goes and kills all of
your cells essentially trying to eliminate the cancer cells but it's also going to hurt a lot
of your your regular healthy cells if we can actually target these specific cells through
certain tech and ai which is what they're studying today um and there's been massive breakthroughs war
you would be able to effectively uh you know eliminate cancer cells which would be a huge obvious
breakthrough this is the trajectory they're going on this is what they want to fund there's a hundred and one
million dollar prize pool right now for the design longevity sector that is going to be being built
upon i believe between january and february and whoever wins this this uh this prize has to effectively
create a cure within 360 days uh and show proof that they've reduced and actually made a health
the lifespan of an individual healthier by one year and by 2030 i think they're trying to do 10 years
so that sector um growing extensively out in abu dhabi um and and also just pretty much the entire
uae they're funding billions into it right now that is something i'm anticipating so there's going to be
a ton of niches and narratives as we see quantum and ai advance where you're going to get these silicon
valley type bubbles and it could be in it could be in game five and it could be a decide it can be in
layer twos it could be in layer fives that are created we don't even know about yet who freaking
knows um there's going to always be a narrative and i'll kind of stop there for it but uh yeah
dude i'm incredibly bullish i'm just short-term bearish in the sense that there's a lot of grifters
out there right now that uh absolutely suck at predicting markets and even though i'm not someone
that's perfect and is going to predict these markets every single time the moment i see people
that portray themselves as some millionaire even though they're in debt uh saying hey you should buy
at 44k you should buy at 46k because we're going to go to 100k at these levels tells me at a time of
mass speculation when everybody's believing and predicting that there's some arbitrary by the way
guys 90 from eric valjunas and i'm sorry that 90 was pulled out of the rectum that was pulled out of
their ass there's no metric or scale where you can say this is a 90 chance why not 87.6 why not 97.3
why not 64.2 they decided to just say 90 and now your cnbcs and all of your analysts are using these
numbers and just speculated off of it creating more and more hype so when you're in a hype cycle i don't
believe it's disbelief i believe it's uh depression and just a sucker's rally uh in what's anticipated to
be the true bull run as we lead up to the bitcoin happening so i'll stop there man josh that was
great you absolutely cooked brother that was fantastic man and uh really excited to uh you
know view these passionate rants on video man when we start uh doing some stuff together uh guys if uh
you didn't know josh actually uh works at discover crypto he's their youtube guy so feel free uh to follow
him for you know all his content and all that stuff he usually participates on our spaces once or twice
a week and uh yeah it's been an absolute pleasure having him here on the show and you know josh you
touched on two interesting points right you touched on commodities but you also touched on like design
longevity and all that stuff and you know i have two things right we have gold right which is a commodity
that i i understand it's pulled back a bit after peter schiff was basically acting super euphoric on the
timeline but the way that gold rallied towards that all-time high was very very alarming in the sense
that you know the last time we saw gold act like this was essentially in 2011 right and you know right
after 2011 right you know going into uh the 2012 election year markets just started acting parabolic
right like that post that post um you know election cycle was insane dude like the nasdaq just went
straight up in a straight line and you know you had all these companies come out like lyft uber
instacart um all that stuff right i call them the zoomer apps right and they've they've added a ton
into the economy and created so many new jobs right it's not like it's not like you know in the 2000s
and the 90s that once you were fired from your job you would have like a difficult time kind of finding
another job and all that stuff like the gig economy and this is something that i've been talking about
like pretty much all year like the gig economy is the one thing that's essentially like holding
unemployment like so so low right like if it wasn't for the gig economy i i honestly believe
we'd be at like five percent six percent unemployment if i'm being honest so um we have that right and you
know the age of commodities and all that stuff and in regards to crypto and all of that and i know some
people are saying like oh only bitcoin is gonna run absolutely not absolutely not i don't think we're
ever going to see a cycle where only bitcoin runs and that's just because of the way society is right
society is thirsty for that quick money right like i feel within this app right and within like just
most of the finance circles whether it's reddit whether it's x whether it's youtube whether it's
tiktok people always be addicted to the rush of dopamine after like you know kiwi infinity that we had
for for years and years and years especially with obama it was like qe1 qe2 and then some tightening
and then some pausing it was it's it was it was ridiculous right and i feel like after covid there's
not ever going to be a cycle where you know froth remains stagnant for years and years and years as it did
post.com so you know my my question to you off of that especially with desai which
you know i kind of think goes off of the backbone from the innovation cycle we had from you know 2012
all the way to 2018 i think that was a nice innovation cycle and i think the next one um
is practically in full fortune i i think it started in 2022 with chat gpt and i think you know off of that
with you know vr and ar and then of course life longevity i think that you know 2022 all the way
to 2030 is going to be another like quote unquote innovative cycle right especially with everything
being so so digitized right like i wanted to ask you like would you entertain a scenario where
you know not only do commodities run but we also see an excess of froth where like you know the russell
goes to astronomical levels the nasdaq goes to like 35 000 ethereum goes to like 20 000 and of course
you know there is a price to pay because of that right via via you know the average consumer being
priced out um from dollar printing and all that stuff but i think there's a possibility of both
an easing kind of cycle happening which of course would benefit desai a lot but we would also have
you know hard commodities run pretty hard bitcoin eth um and of course your more traditional commodities
like like gold and silver and i know jack is this year but would love to know like look like what
you're thinking uh in regards to that yeah so yeah a lot of breakdown there we'll start with the uh
we'll start with the the the ai factor this so the one thing i would have to 100 agree in the sense
that this next 10 years we're not we're in a new revolution this isn't this is the artificial
revolution so to speak where people don't i don't think can even fathom or understand or comprehend
whatever word you want to choose there to what we're about to witness uh and whatever upcoming
cycle this is going to be referred to in the history books because for the first time in history
guys global markets are working as one which we're talking cross-border remnant we're talking global
payments with global communication within every eight billion all eight billion people are going to be
advancing in the sense that we now have ai to scale our technology and the ability to transfer
payments in a global manner which is just if you just sit down and think about that and told your
parents that or you know probably someone in this stream it's like you're like in the 1980s not to
play any ages here or ageism here you know that we have we went from no cell phones in the matter of 30
years to now global payment systems and the communication levels with anybody in the world
and so this is in my opinion you're going to see a lot of emerging economies over the next 10 years
uh specifically start to scale and see a lot more value created that was once uh before very impossible so
yes 100 we're going to see more money enter these markets now does that mean it's going to be ethereum
that decides to take the leap here i don't necessarily know i think ethereum has obviously
we've seen a lot of uh backlash and and back draws with vitalic buter and the utxos and just how the
actual network performs we've seen proof of stake essentially completely fail in the sense of
decentralization it's impossible to have a proof of stake network uh that can combat the inevitable
the inevitable uh scenario of somebody coming into the network with more money with more power and more
control and uh you know driving narratives in a direction that you may or may not want and so
you know i couldn't i couldn't honestly tell you i think we're three to four years away from quantum
computing really ramping up we might be 10 years away from commercialization um and at the same time
that's going to project us i mean i don't think people understand that either like i'll be getting to
hopefully go down to panama here in february for ag and agi convention with singularity network we're
in talks right now and they're great people i'm in touch with their head of marketing constantly and
working with a lot of their upcoming uh digital twin protocols and things that they're developing with
ai that can auto create creators to be in spanish or mandarin or japanese etc in real time
these are these are what we're building today and the creator of agi if you guys didn't know the
founder the father he's known as the father agis uh his name's ben i'm gonna butcher his last name
it's like gord soul uh he was on joe rogan he was on joe rogan like two times yeah yep 100 and he'll
be down there as well uh speaking in in kind of what the projections and future of this is and they're
trying to play more of an open source role of uh agi because people don't realize that the artificial
intelligence you're consuming is being created by a biased uh coder coding is the freedom of
speech guys so however they decide to embed and create that code if it's closed source you have
no idea where that data is being aggregated from and there's a lot of scenarios that people are
worried about from that that's why we had the whole sam altman issue people were bullish that
sam altman got his job back i'm like laughing my ass off because that means microsoft now has the
majority control uh and you know again we i i don't necessarily trust tech companies with that
amount of power so you know i'm going to go on a rant tangent from that i i will we'll veer away from
that conversation but overall with the the projections of ai here is it doesn't slow down it doesn't it
looks like an up only chart and it's only going to go parabolic more and more uh and we've we're in
the early stages of agi we don't have commercialized quantum yet the moment we can create that is i
mean i'm not i'm not a singularity expert i can't tell you what it means to uh i i could even anticipate
that i can even think about that that's that's free open thought of that that that scenario and
that's why i'd hopefully uh i'm going to be sitting down probably with ben uh who's a cognitive
scientist and discussing those very uh those very things but yeah man i think uh it doesn't slow down
and in the sense to let's wrap the conversation back to people going okay how do i profit off this
bitcoin is that commodity i look at as every other altcoin is a sas model and these sas models are all
trial and error and a lot of the ones that are around today are not going to be around in four years
in fact they may not even be around in two years due to the advancements in technology that's being
created today if anybody is in crypto and if this is your first cycle welcome but you are going to
learn over the period of time of you know whether it's one or two cycles that every other crypto
other than bitcoin is a sas model it relies on an early foundation who is going to utilize the token
to raise funds and pay off the developers to create a decentralized scalable secure network and i'm
i'm putting quotation marks with my fingers in the air you just can't see them so you know from that
outlook okay you know how many of these are actually securities this now goes into the conversation on
why i'm working with legislators and trying to be a part of non-partisan i am part of non-partisan
committees focusing on on legislation in the united states is should they have a three-year time period
as this we shouldn't be relating a cryptocurrency to you know fucking oranges from the 1933 securities act
right like this is where we need new uh innovation in lawmaking uh that represents this innovation
and so you know i i would say everybody that's in here you need to start paying attention don't be
like the boomers on cnbc that are waiting for a hundred thousand dollar bitcoin to confirm their
interests like this is the most innovating technology we've ever seen and we cannot predict it is impossible
to predict it is literally impossible to predict how far and how quick these advancements take place
over the next 10 years with the amount of technology uh that is just doubling at each and every
each and every single day it's it's not slowing down and you know what josh i i want i want to let
jackus give some thoughts because me and you we can go back and forth back and forth but just out of uh
just out of time's sake man i want to pass the mic from myself over to jackus i know he has a lot to say
say especially when we're talking about commodities and intra market analysis so jackus brother hope
you're doing well man i saw you on a space a couple of hours ago hope you had fun there brother uh but
how are you man welcome welcome welcome back hey bobby hey josh hey everyone yeah yeah i was uh on a
different uh space explained in uh my views to new viewers but generally just you know having fun
uh super busy today uh i'm working all the way from the marketing till the night yeah in 15 minutes
it's a freaking midnight right in my country so and i'm here you know i'm not watching some freaking tv
show on netflix i'm here so yeah um what what do i think of all of this i mean i love uh jake's
oh sorry yeah i left uh well i'm not sure should i call you josh or jake i'm actually kind of confused
josh or jake they like to call me jake uh drake works too i guess i've said that brother i've said
that before it's just a thing now it's just a thing now i don't care i expect it yeah i sometimes go
josh sometimes jake so anyways uh i i love lots of those takes especially when you mentioned you know all
these other countries that you know they might not have uh you know like like we see that some
countries are heavy on certain commodities like we see obviously the middle east being heavy on oil we
see russia being heavy on natural resources and so but like btc really does a if you have access to cheap
energy uh it does give you lots of lots of uh let's say influence for the future if you can grab
this opportunity which i think you know lots of nations will in time as they realize it uh
lots of great talks about regulation too about the you know how btc is uh
uh heading into this special area how it should be treated different uh differently and so on i do
agree with that uh a lot myself you know um we've been having this discussion on like btc being the
digital commodity for for a long time and i think it's still fair to to keep reminding that because it it
really is that way right like i will repeat you know some people can look at btc and see money some
people look at it and see currencies some people look at it and just see star of value some people look
at it and see uh you know the most decentralized network they can store messages there you know they
can start their nfts there uh some people will look at it and see energy and it's like who am i to tell
people what it is it it is what they need it to be right and that makes it a commodity alongside all
that mining right through for fergan so so with that in mind uh i think there is uh as we are heading
into the decade of commodities i think you know gold pumping the new all-time highs really solidifies that
and i'm sure there will be lots of people right now saying like hey man sfp above new all-time highs we
are going back to you know range lows or something man how did that sfp after sfp work for you on
bitcoin right uh i kept saying this is a vertical accumulation most likely and we will see that
expansion higher and here we are you know you had sfps after sfps uh you kept waiting for 33k retest and
that's that we are at 44 bet jack is tia just hit ten dollars man tia just hit ten dollars double
digits say that i just had to say that we just hit ten dollars and me and max we uh we had a bet
right it was it's a good bet it's a good bet though and i said if tia hits twenty dollars by the end of
the year i have to shave my face and i have and i have a pretty big beard right and if it hits thirty
dollars i have to shave my face and put a corporate pfp so no more anime pfp so we'll see brother we'll see
but continue cooking man i just i just had to uh say that emergency price update but go ahead
yeah yeah man uh that's a great point uh you know tia hitting double digits i understand you guys
for those of you that don't know uh lobby was buying tia at like 2.3 dollars or something like
at that very listing price and he's making a banger here so it's lobby staying on track that's for sure
yeah shout out to big on digital brother man he was telling us about like like uh the the the brc 20
tokens track at like 10 cents man congrats on that trade brother but continue jackets yeah brc tokens
like the bitcoin ecosystem tokens are i'm heavy on those two i think it's a great narrative going forward
uh you know i've been having on uh on stx and few of these others that's why i asked you josh
the other day on youtube right because i wanted to know your take and it's lovely that you are in that
one as well hope it's okay if i mention that um we had some great uh great uh returns the last two weeks
by the way this is a great point too right uh i see lots of people still looking at the bitcoin dominance
and i think it's a you know it's a fair thing but as i've been saying you know how does that help
you really um because if you've been looking at btc dominance and decide by the way btc dominance mainly
consists of ether and stable coins and then you know like xrp bnb and the rest is really like low
they have low percentages weight so if you really were looking at btc dominance and and i myself am
heavy on bitcoin by the way okay but i'm looking to outperform as well uh and if you were looking at
that one and decided not to not to rotate the money and i think this is also perfectly okay for many people
if you just want to store your walls btc that's the best way to do it right btc is the hardest asset
that that's what you want to do but if you are here like me to multiply my wells uh then you know i've
been outperform even though that btc dominance has been going up i've been outperforming bitcoin since the
beginning of the year sol went freaking 500 link went like 200 something right uh so and and there
are many others like stx right now and by the way like i believe this these bitcoin ecosystem tokens
pretty good pretty good deal right if you are bullish on btc alone i think that's a great
diversification play there too but you need to play the cycles of course so i wanted to mention that
that i wanted to mention that um yeah yeah pretty excited about today's price uh you know everything
fitting together pretty much so i didn't even have that much time to enjoy to be honest i was working
all day anyways going to pass the word back to you wabi joe strike and hear from you more
yeah i love your recent chart man of the uh that it's a great point uh for you guys that don't i'm
going to pin it up here because that needs to be everybody needs to see this let me go boom market
talk but jackson put out that just five days into december we already seen a quick repricing for
bitcoin sideliners waiting for a pullback biting their nails who could have foreseen this uh and this
is like this is a great point it's a little bit higher than what i was anticipating in terms of you're
you're actually projecting like a high sixty thousand dollar bitcoin potentially uh where
i'm more towards the 48 to 55k because i think uh once you break that 45k level we'll have a pretty
easy spike up to fifty thousand dollars but 48k is obviously gonna be a pretty massive resistance
areas that's a it's just a massive resistance zone um this is this is like the prime example of what i'm
watching and why i'm so cautious right now in this scenario because the the markets markets going up right
now are actually hurting more people like more retailers than anything because the everybody
as everybody mentioned on this this panel today like i said are they're primarily on the sidelines
they did not accumulate they barely exposed these markets so jackson if you wanted to talk a little
bit off that and just what your thoughts are around that and then why we would see a retracement after
that is that because these people that were on the sideliners in disbelief end up buying in and
becoming the exit liquidity above that 55k level oh surely uh i've been having a great talk about it
all year and it's uh amazing like how price can move up so much in a year and people most people
and i see that in the chart because if you if you read the chart you know what's going on and price is
up 180 84 percent for btc on the year and most people have not made money on it or actually lost
you know because and i do not have the chart here to share it would be better to use the chart but like
uh most people you know sold during the bear market bottom then we had the you know early january
pump some people 34 more and then there was the scary shakeout in march you know people were still
heavy bear market ptsd they were expecting lower so they sold market really instantly higher created
sfp above the range at 25k you know they were not buying they were waiting for a pullback instead of
run higher to like uh 31 right then people started for more and market starts to go down you know you get
all these pairs you know okay once again 20 euros uh inside the release higher people are like okay fine
fine fine fine uh i got this wrong some of these bears are wrong i'm buying 31k market goes back down
uh rapes you know in that late sorry early august dump it dumps most people scared and there are some
logs that wanted to buy below that uh june low and this is a great point we've been having this discussion
live with max and other bb members and during that time we've seen that the spot failed to break down
below that june uh low that weekly low right but burp charts they broken below that low and now what this
means is that there has been lots of logs that just got stopped out below that low that's certain and we've
seen the quick buyback right below because like person to like i didn't like 24k or something but
spot man if you wanted to buy spot btc below that low you got front run hard and then the mark and people
were still waiting for that sweep and then i was saying at that timeline like telling people hey man
weekly market structure is bullish emas are nicely lined up daily market structure is bullish there's a
pretty decent chance we run higher here and if that's so that leads to the cascade of things
and boy it did and we broken above that 31 25k range where we spent like and i'm explaining this
because you need to see the story in the chart that's how you know like when josh says how many
people are signing we can tell that from the chart and we do not need to see how like what are people's
portfolios right we know that from the chart because we know how people are behaving on these dumps and
pumps and so we had that break above 30 that that range basically below 30k while we have reclaimed the
30 to 60k range and at that point there was a quick chance that we would see like a quick retrace to that
uh july high at 31 32k right but instead the price started to go up it started to show strengths and
it kept respecting hair lows higher highs basically making a market structure and at that point i was
saying hey man there are so many people so many people wanting that 33k retest and man this just tells me
how many people are sideline and i am expecting we will continue higher and we are and and once again
if you've been sidelined this whole time and had been losing money through the whole story i've just
been you know explaining then all these people that they were like okay you know when we broken above
that's 32k 30k higher there were lots of people that accepted they were wrong lots of bears that said hey
man you know i got this wrong the market proved me wrong i am bullish now we've heard it but all
these people they wanted that retest and it never came and it's this makes perfect sense because the
market wants to put most people on the wrong side make them for more higher and then make them sell the
support they initially wanted to buy and that's what we are seeing unfolding here the market is now
pumping that's what i said in that post that joshua was talking about there are lots of sideliners
biting they are nailed because they do not know what to do like they keep hearing you know you don't
buy on these pumps but if you've been sidelined this whole time and now you do not know what to do the
pullback is not and what i think happens and that has been my case for the entirety of the year is that we
run above 48k which is a huge you know it's not in my opinion it's not a it's not a big resistance it's
a huge liquidity level and sentiment changer above there every bear must turn bullish and i think they
will and what is important is how we behave above there okay so if we see like a quick flash down to just
direct leverage longs in my opinion we continue higher but if we go up there and start to see
a distribution a rotation if we spend multiple weeks going sideways something similar to what happened
you know in july 2019 if you want that visual representation so something in that type above and you
know i posted that by the way josh i posted that uh monthly chart so like on the monthly there is no
resistance relay until 60k but i'm ready for any distribution between 48 to 60k right uh for that
i'm explaining it can like even continue higher i do not think so but i have a version in my head how
that should or would unfold if that happens and so we are going back to the case that most people are
sign line and i do believe lots of these will be buying back above 48 to 60k that's that's the area
that's the sentiment change i know how the psychology work i've been in this game for decades now and
it it just people will be people psychology is there and this will repeat and i do believe that at some
point we will create a higher time frame pullback minus 40 minus 50 percent drop market will remain to
be market you know going up and down and it's nothing uncommon you know even in uh 2016 the price rallied
pretty hard in may june 2016 right from that accumulation similar one we had between uh 30 to 25
case then it ran straight up straight up retested the 62 retracement level just the level we are
currently approaching and then from that level it pulled back 40 percent i'm i'm in that conviction
that we see something similar where btc goes above there makes all these sideliners fomo i think that level
is above 48k to to make them formal and then we will see that scary scary panic sell-off
to i i did not know if we go all the way to 30k i think that's pretty decent case it happens like
30 sorry like 32 or something in that area and the market will make them sell the support they initially
wanted to buy and then i'm pretty convinced we continue way higher yeah and i love that you brought up
the the point there because i've made multiple videos now on you know saying i'm anticipating
like a 20 to 30 percent pull off and we have a little bit different i'm a little bit disagreement
on just the uh the actual price moving to the upside but the overall structure is i'm in 100
agreeance with so like for me it's like you you put you said it perfectly with the liquidations right and
that's that's what i'm watching primarily because once the guys once we break 45 it's like 45
thousand three hundred you have a small liquidation level at 45 000 like 700 and then it's just a gap
to almost 50k and so like even at the 48k level there's that's there is a very very slim levels
there but that's like that's that key level right there before all of a sudden where the max pain
becomes is now at that 37 39 000 range and i'm talking hundreds of millions of dollars in liquidations at
that level so even if we do break this up here this is just a market maker liquidation swing i
call this a windshield wiper method it's what i've always traded and it's how i always react to the
market i'm waiting for the market makers to wipe out all these positions because if we do break down
the 37 500 or even even 40k let's say that that creates enough uh people to start long in the market
and pushes back up to the upside they just need enough to uh keep moving us up in a bullish trajectory
which is why again i keep saying this would be extremely healthy for us to continue up to the
upside here that is what i'm watching for at the end of the month because if we get the denial of
that etf fund and then we get a liquidation grab down to that like mid to high 30s for the for
bitcoin's price what jackson just said is right as well in the sense that i believe everybody will
start calling for 33k bitcoin they'll start calling for 31k bitcoin they'll start calling for 37k bitcoin
and at that point market makers will have grabbed way more than enough liquidity to continue this to
the upside there um and that is that is the focus point i'm watching for for january and i kind of
want to just make that clear because i know people watch my video and they just go hey joshua i actually
actually want to make a quick comment um do you remember the last bull run when we ran from it was like
3k and we zoomed past 20k we went to 30k and then we went to i think it was 35k or maybe 40 and we
first that's when we first saw yeah that's when we first saw our resistance do you think we zoomed past
all-time high and just like forget it because here's what i'm thinking now i i'm just basically a
permable uh all the time it's either i'm giga bullish or i'm just semi-bullish but i'm young so i'm
very bullish the crypto industry hence why i have a youtube channel and it's just something i'm
really passionate about but just looking at it it's like remember last bull run and that was my very
first that was my first cycle and i was sitting there on coinbase and i watched eth run from 100
bucks to like 300 bucks and i'm like you know what i'll wait till it comes down then it goes to 400 bucks
and and um and i was like you know what i'm just gonna buy some bitcoin underneath and i i ended up
buying like like 500 bucks worth of each at the time and i was like i'll just buy more on a pullback
it never pulled back i keep going up and up and up and actually what had happened after i made those
buys i was like as soon as i bought them it went down like it blipped down like you know 10 bucks 20
bucks and i was like man this is the dumbest thing i've ever done and then ended up i wake up in the
morning and the thing just sent it kept going and i was never able to allocate to bitcoin at all in fact
the the bitcoin that i had like the the largest size i got was actually from block fi and what i did was
i basically was gaming the system where you get like 200 and free bitcoin and i would just make a bunch
of accounts and this was when bitcoin was like 5k so i ended up stacking like it was 0.2 bitcoin
at the time so it wasn't really much but it ended up being really sizable so i i eventually they uh
figured out they had a glitch on their um persona or verification thing whatever it was and they ended
up fixing it so i couldn't make any more accounts but it was basically one of those things where i look
at like i feel like it's gonna climb a wall of worry i think we do need to retrace i i really do
but i'm not a ta guy and if i think something is going to happen or i believe something's going to
happen it does the complete opposite bro that happens to me all the time too you know i'm not
going to be necessarily the ta guy as well uh but what i wanted to say though is is he brought it up and
it was that exact rally up to that 41 000 that i'm paying attention to because that if you guys
remember from that last born we moved up from that 25 it might have been actually even 20k up to break
past that 42 000 it was like we tapped 42 000 was because elon musk started tweeting about it with
tesla and that ended up actually allowing tesla to purchase uh you could buy you know obviously your
tesla with bitcoin and he added bitcoin to their balance sheet and so that like sparked us from the
27 000 up all the way to 42k and then was followed at that 42 000 by an immediate sell-off of 30 percent
from 42 000 all the way back down to like 28 000 29 000 and so i i that's actually the exact scenario
that i feel like we're in right now and i have to discuss because i'm like i am like massively exposed
to this market i am in this market we were buying throughout like we like if you guys are part of
these twitter spaces and if you guys aren't following these twitter spaces you need to hop in
these twitter spaces because this is by far one of the best panels i've ever had the opportunity
to co-host with every you know now and then with because bitcoin and jackson and all these people
i've gotten to meet in these these panels make sure you're following drake everybody up here guys
um so much alpha uh so at this point you know my my perspective is okay if we're happy this is
another announcement massive speculation everybody's buying the world's richest man's you know now in the
market it's only up from here and then what happened well tesla immediately got shut down
by blackrock because they didn't meet dsg standards or whatever they went back on their word etc it
caused this massive sell-off of roughly 30 percent and so that's kind of the same exact scenario that
i feel that we're in right now we have this euphoric kind of bullish narrative of spot bitcoin
etfs all being approved it's 90 certain you have max kaiser's crazy ass coming out and saying
qatar is going to buy half a bit a trillion dollars of bitcoin and in reality is if on january 10th that
is denied which is what i believe is going to happen and again i could be completely wrong that's why
before then i'm looking to scrape off 50 of my profits um so i can accumulate if we do see another
drawback there if not i'll still be exposed and so you know that's the exact outlook is we've gone
from what now fifteen thousand dollar bitcoin essentially up only minus the silicon valley bank
uh scenario where we went down for like three days which was a liquidation grab to nineteen thousand
eight hundred uh i expect something similar in the sense we're in january or towards the end of this
month you get that pullback for a few consecutive days if not maybe one or two weeks but it inevitably
just is a liquidation grab to just continuous up to the upside because if you follow that as well
of course bitcoin went down to twenty nine thousand but after that it immediately ran up to that sixty
thousand dollar level uh you know as obviously as we broke through the halving and everything so
very similar similar uh patterns on the charts and i and i have i believe a similar psychology in the
sense of how people are reacting to the markets but jackson so i see your hands up and then drake feel free
to chime in too yeah i want to respond to jake too so that's a fair point it's a good point and it's
need to it it's important to address that that in uh 2020 we basically like there were after kobe
there were pullbacks there were accumulations in between so i would say the relay really started from
that 10k when a sailor announced he bought and we went to 40k but i need to mention that it would happen
regardless that way because we were in a completely different macro environment in the time and it was
that the world flooded like the central bankers flooded the world with just insane amounts of
liquidity never seen before and we've seen all these other assets bump in the same way whether it was
silver spx or you name it so all of these pumped the same way they started to dump pretty much the same
way too and each obviously like each market behaves in each in it in its own aspects so for example we had
ftx drop at the very bottom of the bear market that was just crypto thing and it was completely unexpected
by the market but around that time you know silver was bottoming copper was bottoming and all of these
right and this is very important to keep in mind the only difference is that crypto has been
uh one of it's been very low market cap compared to all these other assets that's why it rallied so
hard in terms of percentages but this will always be the same you know lower market cap things will
pump higher than the higher market cap things and then it's question whether they stay there
like we see that many shit coins will go back down because they are only good for this one cycle
there are a few that that last well like if you know it's been outperforming btc since the inception
for example or even freaking dodge but most of them they just go down but the thing is that lower market cap
things outperform the big ones just like btc you know btc is not competing with other cryptos btc is
competing with all these other hard assets uh around the world right and so when you mentioned that
pump that we just went up only in 2020 it was the money printing really that sounded higher we are not
in that environment yet but but i think i think this can continue going higher as i've been saying for a
a little longer of course but uh we need to address that it's a very different macro environment though
and you know i'm gonna mention the recession at some point it's going to come i said many times how
i'm playing this so i do not want to repeat it but the moment it comes it's going to drag down btc
and crypto all together right it's just like even freaking gold has dumped during 2008 it has done a
lot but it's been in a bull market and at that point it has uh registered its prior all-time high
basically and then continued higher uh the same thing will the same thing will happen
that's like when you say uh recession are you talking about like are the the recent recession we
had in like late 2019 or it was kind of a soft recession i believe it was from like late november
to like late february and then of course covet happened or are you talking about like a prolonged
like perhaps as far as far as for bitcoin uh we've seen that during covet when btc dumped alongside all
these other assets right in but there was an insane bit it did not make new loans unlike many assets
and really higher but it dumped nonetheless and that's what i talked about was like gold uh in 2008 it was
in a bull run it was getting bit hard but it's just as everything else during that recession
it went down like minus 50 percent in the bull run or something like that i'm not really sure but
what i'm trying to say is that we need to put everything in context of the current things and we
cannot think that uh you know 2020 was the same as it is now because it's not and when that recession
comes and once again i do not know exactly when i have my thesis but when it comes it's going to affect
btc to pull back but it will matter you know does it count when btc is already trading above all-time
highs well maybe we just come back with this all-time high and continue higher right uh will we spend the
time until then between like 48k to 60k and then it hits okay we probably come back respect the ta levels
we we dump like minus 40 minus 50 percent with a 30k then we continue higher right uh but it's going to
affect it and this is very important to say that uh it's probably like it's probably that's going to
be up only the same way it was in 2020 it's what i wanted to mention
well we have naka who joined us on the panel naka what is going on brother haven't heard from you uh
uh and over a month man and you know i uh i've been enjoying this celestial pump man and um you
know i'm sure you're excited about that too but brother how have you been what's going on hope you're
doing all right hey man not bad yeah i mean uh the market's been bullish um i noticed somebody tagged me
on the space what was the what was the deal with that i i really don't know man like when it comes
to like the twitter audience it's a bit more harsh whether as in youtube which like we we've we've been
doing you know just as often as these spaces it's more filled with people that like are you know more
filled with a spirit of camaraderie whether as like here on x it's sort of like i said this on a few
spaces before but it's kind of like a call of duty modern warfare 2 uh like lobby but in a uh in sort of
like keyboard warrior kind of kind of the good old days this is this is the this is the trolls who
basically can't change their bias like i changed my bias at 31.4 publicly and went all in and the
trolls can't change their trolling bias that quickly it's like no knacker you're supposed to be bearish
please be bearish again so i can get mad with you i want to be mad like and they want to be mad and i
haven't fucking sold anything now i've missed a few pumps i i got the celestial airdrop didn't buy any
um you know i missed some other things but like you know i'm in bitcoin i'm in eth i'm in rune um
you know you know what's crazy knacker like i remember when thor chain was trading at 70
cents 80 cents 90 cents and i remember there was this one particular space and you were saying like
out of all the altcoins um you know outside of like ethereum rune right thor chain
is probably like the most fundamentally bullish because essentially thor chain is a bet on new
inflows coming into the crypto market yeah exactly yeah it's like a turbo it's like a turbo leverage
play on bitcoin which is why i got some unfortunately i paper-handed at a dollar after buying under a
dollar and had to buy back in at a dollar like 80 or 70 or something but the thing is not good the
thing is not good at the very least at the very least you did not get blown up on leverage um or
any stuff like that because i'll tell you this man i'll tell you this and this is just from like my own
personal viewpoint i would like to think right that if you're an individual that has remained solvent um
that has made consistent you know profitability in these markets i don't really think you would have
like the bandwidth to type something harsh to a stranger over the internet because of
like some previous view on the market right because you know markets can humble you markets can humble
you very very very very fast and you know markets they're efficient at taking other people's money
right anytime there's an up move or a down move somebody has to lose right and in crypto you know
this industry has a way of you know stealing your money some way somehow right even with bitcoin you can
lose your keys leave it on and leave it on an exchange that rug so me personally i like to avoid
any sort of like interaction when it comes to like angry people on the internet because the block button is
there right and i mean like to each their own right like even if you had bought in you know alts when
bitcoin was at 30k there have been a ton of alts over the last months that have gone up yeah yeah there
have been there have been a ton yeah i'll chain chain link as well i got into chain link at 11 and the
funny thing about that was uh ethotaku who was who's basically predicted the chain link move perfectly
um he fucking sold his at 11 because he got scared right so he was a bull he bought in at like seven
or eight dollars or something or even i think he bought some even at like under five dollars um he
got a bit scared at 11 uh he fucking sold i bought and you know it's still above 11 at the moment so
um i mean i'm not really sure what uh what to say you know i mean if um if the market's going up
consistently in an uptrend you should be bullish um even if before that you were bearish and and
the thing is like if you're trading like if you're trading a market based upon price action
your trades are going to have to lag price action a little bit right like you can't just
bid every dip in a bear market hoping that's the bottom because you'll get wrecked um and a lot of
people did get wrecked doing doing just that so you will have to lag and i lagged a little bit i could
have bought at 25 but i didn't have um i didn't have any indicator telling me that 25 was a bottom
i didn't have anything that was telling me that i had several that were telling me that that we were
dangerously overheated at that point and you know it turns out that those indicators were wrong um
but you know like i bought in at 30k i bought in eth under 2k like 1700 or something
um you know i bought my bitcoin at 31 bought my rune at 180 bought my link at 11 um you know bought
my vita at like 170 or something it's almost four dollars now um got my celestial airdrop so yeah i
mean i'm bullish man i'm a hundred percent full net worth long uh and not really planning on changing
that i'm not currently using any leverage um you know i may change that and put and add some leverage
but uh probably not right now um so yeah i'm bulled up i mean i was just listening to what jackis was
saying i do think there is a significant chance that we get messed around by the market a little bit
um so i think there is a significant chance that you know we will see a pullback we will see people
get excited at the exact top which could be now but it could also be 55 could be 50 could be 60 and it
could chop us around right we could chop around in a new range for 12 months and imagine how frustrating
that would be so yeah um but i i think like right now based on the high time frame indicators um
you have to be long term and medium term bullish you have to at least hold um and you know the price
action will probably reward people who hold for the next 12 months i'm gonna say i i reckon like 12 to
18 months from now it's it's gonna be higher and the downside on that journey is going to probably
be sharp and painful for people on leverage but probably not very painful for holders
so knock i have to hop off real quick i just wanted to say shout out to everybody being up here
wonderful space today knock it's good seeing you again uh guys make sure you're following everybody
on the panel here it's literally the best panel and the best uh alpha you will get in both the crypto
and economic sector they have the just best variety of hosts that come on here and help
share some education and just open discussions uh in a mature way which is very rare uh for crypto
twitter to see so it's a great place to be guys much love and i will see you guys in the next twitter
space josh a pleasure to have you man everyone go follow josh he's doing some pretty cool stuff
on discover crypto on their youtube channel so looking forward to the next one guys if this is your
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like that uh feel free to do so and um as an announcement um if you go on our site and click
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working on bb terminal it's basically going to be um like an ai data aggregator you'll be able to do
trades and all that stuff so some pretty exciting stuff of course that's more of like you know second
half of next year but kind of want to hype you guys up and perhaps um you know by the having um
we'll give away uh some beta testers if um you guys are into using the in silical terminal and uh
things like that so and also velo if you guys are interested in platforms like that so
really excited uh to be talking here with you man and um i want to shift the conversation over to
naka again naka you know i know i've asked you a lot about like you know data availability and
you know blockchain modularity and all those things but sort of uh my higher time frame outlook for 2024
is essentially going to be a rotation between celestia and eigenlayer i sort of feel that
the market right now does not know how to price in celestia excuse me so it's essentially like chain
link and its price action uh in 2019 and 2020 where it ran up to 25 billion fdv and nobody really knew
what an oracle was and i'm sort of giving the context of you know what oracles were last cycle
that's sort of going to be like the modular slash data availability thesis so i'm using you know
chain link as an example of that and so i think it's just going to be this massive rotation play where
all right you have celestia it's really low flow and it's sort of this like new platform that's not
really built on ethereum eventually it's going to have its own wallets infrastructure and the
actual token is going to have demand you'll get airdrops and all that sort of stuff and i feel
like when eigenlayer comes out which is going to be massive for the ethereum um ecosystem given that
it's going to you know provide market participants to take advantage um of the ethereum asset now that
it's yield bearing in the most efficient manner possible and i'll tell you this every project
that i'm bullish on that's building um that doesn't even have a token yet is looking to deploy
an eigenlayer so i kind of wanted to pick your brain on a fundamental thesis on not only both celestia
but the potential you know multi-year time frame trade that that is potentially setting up between uh
celestia uh and egan layer and sort of like how would you even you know separate the two because
i'm aware that eigenlayer is also focused on like interoperability and data availability so would love
to know um your thoughts on that and because i'll tell you this man when you gave you know that speech
on modularism and all that stuff it just blew my mind away man you have a pretty solid knack in
describing things in a very technical but yet understandable fashion looking forward for your
thoughts brother yeah i appreciate it man i mean i think uh you know there is going to be a lot of
action in the modular blockchain space um and like you know the reason for that is you can imagine in
the old days right you know in say 2020 or 2021 um somebody would come up with a new blockchain
right they'd come up with avax let's say or they'd come up with you know fucking egold or whatever
right and they'd go and do all of their own software they go and build everything uh from the ground up
uh so it's kind of like if you um if you wanted to uh found a new city you know you would be like
reinventing literally reinventing the wheel right so you'd have a different brand of wheel like some city
would have fucking triangular wheels and some city would have square wheels and they'd also reinvent
the brick right somebody would have like green bricks in their city and just reinvent all of this
right um and uh you know that was okay in 2020 because you know most of the blockchains of that
period you know we're just basically being pumped on hype right like nobody actually used uh blockchains
into 20 to 20 to 21 range i mean it was basically just all ponsified speculation so when when the money is
extremely free and easy it's kind of okay for everyone to be reinventing the wheel but what you
know if we move if we look forwards and hopefully away from eras of you know crazy speculation we
actually don't want everyone to be reinventing the wheel we want one guy to just make wheels right and
sell them to everyone else right you know and then somebody else takes those wheels and puts them on a car
somebody else takes them puts them on a truck right somebody else you know you get the picture
right somebody just manufactures tires and i think this is kind of the idea of modular blockchains
it's that you'll have something like ethereum which is great for settlement because when you
settle a transaction on ethereum that's defended by you know multiple tens of billions of dollars
worth of staked eth which is far more than any other blockchain could ever muster except bitcoin but you
can't use bitcoin right so you know eth will be for settlement but that doesn't necessarily mean
that eth is going to be used for everybody's computation right because you know computing stuff on
eth is super expensive so you'll you'll have the computation happening on you know arbitram or something
like that and then of course you have this data availability thing which is basically the idea that
you know if we want to uh engage in some kind of blockchain activity that has a sort of uh short
term or temporary uh life expectancy and then once it's done it's done and we just settle up our
boundaries so it could be like sports betting uh anything right but it has a sort of short-term life
expectancy we need the data for that activity to be available for a certain period of time cheaply right
lots of data very cheaply available uh we don't need to be available forever right once in a month
once people have had uh a sufficient time period to challenge uh any irregularities spot cheats you can
go delete the delete the data and so that's kind of what's happening with with sharding on ethereum
my understanding that the various data availability solutions are all basically playing the same game
which is that they're selling this sort of temporary uh cheap uh block space um so you have your
computation that's happening on l2s you have data availability on say celestia uh and you have
settlement on ethereum um and and that's probably the way it's going to go people you know we are not
going to have everybody reinventing the wheel uh in these of you know isolated uh parallel uh stacks
where there's like 50 different blockchains and so you have 50 different guys working on 50
different wheels and 49 of them are not the best wheel um and and that's kind of how software works
right um if you develop software you know you generally import libraries right like generally
if you want to write some code that's going to do something and you need access to a sorting
algorithm you don't say like oh i guess i'll start coding up bubble sort and quick sort myself
no you don't do that you you import like some standard library or some you know some
library that somebody's made modular blockchains is kind of like that for blockchain right you know
instead of saying right i'm gonna build my own execution environment my own settlement i'm
gonna do everything instead of that you sort of just import what you need and you you give everyone
a cut of the profits so i think the idea is it's going to make blockchain more um more efficient
less waste uh less repetition of code in some sense at least that's my sort of high level view
of it and i would be welcome for anyone to correct me on that i mean if you if you want to know how the
tokens are going to pump it's always hard when you're dealing with tech tokens because like tech
tokens can be bearish in a bull market right and like mean tokens can be bullish in a bull market
so you never know i was i was kind of surprised by the celestia pump i expected it to you know need to
quieten down um with with celestia knock i do want to throw something here in your direction
i'm kind of comparing it in the middle ground between link at 50 bill fdv and also cardano at like
150 bill fdv and the reason why the reason why right is celestia has been in development since 2018
and they could have easily easily deployed an erc20 token um and have it be tradable right
or even pulled off an ada right like release it in the last leg of the bull market and then just have
it go down only until bitcoin and then it just makes like a two or three x off of its old all-time
high for the next cycle right and when you look at celestia right it's basically like a peer-reviewed
um like chain which is basically the same thing cardano has right like it's all peer-reviewed systems
and all that stuff so they could have easily just pulled off you know that kind of like debauchery and
just have a bunch of hype you know with each of the news updates and all that stuff that charles did
in 2019 2020 and 2021 but instead they released the package that was ready to go and you know here we are
right like the thesis is playing out and i think that like celestia has an opportunity again opportunity
i'm not saying this is a for sure right i'm a market participant and you know i mitigate my risk
by taking profits on the way up i i i think i've given my story enough on luna and how like you know
that changed me as a market participant but i'm still like you know i'm still trying to take advantage
of the volatility right and i don't have all my eggs in one basket right i have a gaming side of my
portfolio and all those things but you know i'm kind of comparing the two and seeing similarity
because if there's one thing that the crypto market is efficient at because i've heard a lot
of people say that this market is inefficient which i don't think it which i don't think it's
not inefficient i actually think it's pretty efficient the market is efficient at narratives
and then like repackaging repackaging them um in different ways right and so you know if celestia
is going to be you know eth 2.0 as far as like the narrative and price action and all that stuff
then i have to look at the 2016 and 2017 cycle because the the ethereum project had multiple
years of hype um up until mainnet right and if you kind of look at the price action it was pretty much
like up only for the first half of 2016 and then after the halving when bitcoin you know experienced that
you know insane crash which pretty much v-shape recovered which is what which is exactly what i
expect next year like i expect some sort of major correction either like shortly before uh the halving
or you know shortly after the halving upwards of like 30 35 percent and so i'm kind of like viewing all
right you know what what what can i compare the two so just wanted to throw that into your into your
direction but i understand it's yeah i mean it's hard to predict prices i will say that i don't
think celestia has anywhere near the um the sort of brand name or the or the kind of moat that ethereum
has right i mean if ethereum was the first smart contract platform which is a huge deal i mean celestia
is kind of cool with the sort of modular blockchains vision but you know to some extent celestia is kind of
just doing things that were already happening like you could see sort of dank sharding as an
alternative to celestia right where you're using the ethereum blob uh space instead of using a separate
data availability layer um so i like i don't think it's i don't think it's like a you know 10 000 x or like
ethereum was um or whatever but like you know i i think that i think instead of thinking about it
purely in terms of like how much gains are we going to get for this token think about modular blockchains
as a sort of new paradigm ha ha ha very funny new paradigm uh that we're going to be entering right
really take that seriously um you know take seriously the idea that people are going to
write blockchains a bit more the way we write software right so you won't be doing everything
you'll be picking a little bit from this a little bit from that and you know the whole i mean another
thing is like the eigenlayer thing right my understanding of eigenlayer is it's basically
a replacement for tokens for a project right so you know typically what a project would do
is they would have something uh you know valuable that they that they wanted users to put at risk
right um and and the users will get slashed if they do something naughty so with chain link you know
you can stake the link token your link gets slashed uh with rune you stake your rune and so on and so
forth um but like bootstrapping this token is uh is kind of annoying for projects right because like
like you know like it's it's sort of like not a strictly engineering problem to get economic value
onto your token you also kind of have to start a cult start a religion and get people to believe in
it you know you have to be a good motivational speaker and all this bullshit and and like you
can't just like put that in a box so the idea with eigenlayer is instead of like having your own token
as the thing that gets slashed you just get some people who've already staked their eth and you get
them to risk re-risk their staked teeth so they're re-staking um so they're sort of like
you know it's kind of like they've staked their eth and they're taking ethereum slashing risk
well now you know they've gone to eigenlayer and they run your software and they take slashing risk
from your project as well so maybe your project is some other gizmo that requires them to run some
software and if they fuck up the software if they misbehave they get their they get their
eth slashed so you know vitalik quite emphatically said that eth re-staking is a really fucking bad
idea and we shouldn't do it um and the reason he said that it's a bad idea is because you know people
will degen into more and more and more staking and you know if all the eth you know it could
basically turn into like the 2008 of blockchains where everyone's stake gets slashed on a bunch of
really stupid risky projects and that then affects the security of the actual base layer ethereum which
is actually quite safe but gives you a relatively low yield so he's not a fan of re-staking i'm not
really a fan of re-staking uh but i can see why it happens it's the same reason as to why financial
bubbles form people just want the gains um and you know whether where there's a buyer there's a seller
right um but you know i mean i think it just points to this sort of new paradigm of blockchains will
be more interoperable and modular people will use components that somebody else has already built
rather than you know continually brewing their own thing um and that's one of the exciting things i
mean the other thing that i kind of i'm pretty excited about is ai and blockchain um and you know
there have been some tokens on that i had a very frustrating experience uh with ai and blockchain
where somebody messaged me and said hey uh you should uh you should buy this token um it was the
olas token and i ignored it because i didn't know the person um and then the thing pumped you know
like tedx and i was like holy shit let me look into this i researched i was like oh shit this is an ai
token it's a gnosis ecosystem why didn't i buy this um but it is what it is so yeah i i think actually for
me the whole modular blockchains thing and the ai x blockchain thing i think those are probably going
to be two of the big themes i don't think uh gaming is actually going to be a big theme uh for the next
bull market um you know i don't think metaverse is going to be a big theme i don't think oracles
are going to be a big theme um i don't think proof of work is going to be a big theme um i think it's
going to be uh modularity and ai because those are the things that actually in the long term will
create trillions of dollars worth of value where the other stuff is just basically hype yeah i i think
as far as like proof of work goes um i'm very very very very very extremely extremely bullish
on caspa um and i think you know with the way they launched and all that stuff i think
they they're not really going to be branded as like a quote-unquote security right and
you know when we talk about like long term and all that stuff i would like to think that something
like a cast was going to be here for multiple cycles um but you know to touch upon your thing
of like gaming and all that stuff when we look at what occurred last year with ai right and sam
outman and chat gpt like i remember getting ridiculed quite a lot bro quite a lot um i'm not
as active on going on other spaces i used to be but like i remember talking to like you know i really
tried talking to like other like people that are enthusiastic about like equities and bitcoin and
when i was touching upon like ai and how like you know like the bitcoin infrastructure can benefit from
it and all that stuff i remember getting laughed at and then like here we are 12 months later and
you know like my own thesis has proven to be right where this market would be essentially lifted off
of an ai narrative and when i look at what apple is doing now as far as like their new product
releases for next year with their apple vision i think that's going to revolutionize the way
um that the gaming industry is formed and then of course we have like the uh the grand theft auto 6
uh trailer where it was kind of leaked early and then at the end it says buy bitcoin and people say
like oh wabi why do you look at such like you know weird things um for like confluence and it's because
i've just developed a skill for for noticing it and and it and it's just happened right it's just
happened like my thesis is being proven uh in real time right not to give myself applause but
that's just the answer to some of the yeah but i mean what what what you're talking about there is is
no no it's it's it's mainly speculation like i understand that like ai and gaming right now is
pure speculation but as a market participant to capitalize on it i think this is an early trend
trend and i think that like i i honestly think that i don't want to say macro man i really really
don't because it makes my head hurt but i think like i think sometime this decade we're going to
experience like the dot-com boom within the crypto market and then like i do think for the first time
ever right whether it's the next bear market or the one after that i do think this industry is going to go
through a multi-year downtrend um but that's just dubious dubious dubious speculation on my end
um so for now you know raging bull market um probably like you know 2025 um my
play narratives in and out you're having here and having here don't get blown up stay alive until 25
because if we're being honest here right we talk about all season and you know parabolic parabolic uh
by the entire sector it's really not until both etc and right um and probably some other altcoin in
like the top 20 or 15 start putting in multiple um weekly candles uh above their old all-time high
right and if you look at total three right i put this chart on my personal profile but
i put the total three chart on the weekly sometime last month and i compared the chain link chart
and they look very similar right 18 months of huge macro accumulation and once chain link started to go
it practically did a 3x and if you look at the last like pre-halving year chain link basically foreshadowed
what would go on in the broader cryptocurrency asset class right so i think like you know with bitcoin
going into the mid 40s which was pretty much like my most euphoric case possible and again like all
these spaces are recorded anybody can fact check me right um that was like my most euphoric case um
and then after that we have like a quote unquote mini alt season right and all seasons usually like two to
four weeks and then we have a pretty sharp pullback and i think like that sharp pullback you know before
the having or post having i think it's going to be one to bid but it's probably going to have like
some pretty bad news right whether it's an etf denial whether like an exchange hack or what have you
i'm just excited and grateful to like talk markets with you guys um
um but um like all in all man i think this whole gaming thing like i think if you're just in your
solvents and like you're taking some trades and all that stuff um i think a lot of this is going to
age pretty well in like the next you know five years because it's easy right now dude like it's pretty
easy to navigate this and i honestly think that like like this bear market that we came out of in
in like 2022 was way easier than the one in 2018 because all you had to do in 2022 was just like
play the the ukraine war rally stains stay in uh stay in usdc or usdt um and that's that's that's
pretty much it right but in 2018 like the stable coin market wasn't really liquid at all right
unless you wanted to have like your dollars um like actual dollars on your coinbase or kraken or
gemini account there was no there was no place to hide and the bounces only lasted like a couple of days
right and most of the price action would occur in like a 15 minute candle right like if you look at uh
if you look at april 2018 right every friday the bitcoin price pumped by like a thousand right i think
like the monthly open um for btc in april of 2018 was like like 6k right around there and then every
week on a friday it would pump by like a grand and then we ended up peaking at like 10.5 in may shortly
before the consensus meeting and then it was just down only bro it was just down only and then we had
a small pop in late july we rallied to like 8700 from the news that the winklevoss twins were filing an
etf and then we basically went to kingdom come to 6500 we did nothing for like four to five weeks and
then we went to goblin town for four weeks straight from like november from like november like 9th all
the way to like december 7th or 6th we just started nuking relentlessly because jihan wu um from bitmain fame
and roger ver from like bitcoin cash fame uh were going at each other during the minor wars and usually at
that time there's like a lot of exchange flood and so yeah there was really nowhere to hide at all
at all whatsoever um so yeah that's uh what i have what i have to say about that i know i ranted um a
little bit and i do see that joe um came up to speak so i'll pass the mic over to him joe what's going on
brother hope you're doing well oh hey how's it going mobby um i don't really have anything uh
unless you have a question for me i mean i i continue to think that the the the most important
thing that almost no one's talking about are what the flows are going to look like on day one for this
this etf launch um it's you know it will make or break i think the next six months if the flows exceed
expectations it's going to be massively bullish and uh it's almost kind of silly to me to be
talking about all coins i mean it just seems like such a terrible risk reward if you get strong flows
from the etf into into bitcoin now if your view is the flows are going to suck and they're going to be
you know less than a billion per se i mean yeah i see your point like then then maybe it might just
might be a sell the news event but like that should be like less than a billion over what period
like the first 30 days so so so holy shit dude less than a billion over 30 days i i would be i'd
fucking sell all my crypto never never yeah so so that's really bad well naka you weren't here
yesterday and you'd be a good person to talk to you about this i was making this point like
so the bloomberg folks who have been all over this they're estimating uh for the first year about 10
billion in flows okay um 10 billion so you know take that for what it's worth i don't really have a
strong view i i don't pretend to have any sort of alpha on this subject but like to me it's like
the whole story right either there this there is really a huge amount of money that just really is
salivating at getting the idea to purchase the etf or there isn't and you're going to see that i mean
the market's going to get real-time data uh right out of the box and uh if if it meets demand um if it
exceeds what you know bloomberg's projecting what a few of the others are projecting you know that's
that's going to be massively bullish uh but you know the opposite is also true and you got to remember
like the gbtc uh is a 25 billion dollar uh you know closed-end trust so like is it really just going
to be mostly gbtc moving to other entities i mean if that's the case that's bearish right but if you say
see like you know 10 billion in inflows in the first uh month um that that that exceeds jp morgan's
estimates that exceeds uh there's a wealth wells fargo note on it exceed bloomberg i mean that's
going to be you know showing you continuation so like to me like timing all the things you guys are
talking about like it's kind of a backseat to what do the actual flows look like and you know what is
your base case for that because we don't have like a good grasp on that i frankly think like
it's almost kind of pointless to sort of you know discuss other aspects of the quote-unquote
crypto market i mean these these numbers all seem really bearish to me like i mean i would i would
want to see more than 30 million in a year that's 30 billion a year right because like the the bitcoin
market cap is like a thousand billion um you know so like if if when people you know if this thing
really sort of goes on sale to the largest market in the world and people only want to buy like 10
billion off um i mean and certainly if they only want to buy 1 billion holy shit um well that's that's
good but you're looking at it you're looking at it sort of like the i think slightly the wrong way
um you have to look at like what is the base case it's kind of like in expectations right like
if everybody expects the fed to raise 50 bps and they come out and they raise 25 okay that that's
like a difference in the base case right so if the base case is that market participants major investment
banks are projecting 10 billion i mean bloomers on investment bank but you get the point they're a
research firm and their research their etf division says 10 billion in a year um if you think that that
is like wrong okay and it beats that estimate it exceeds expectations it's like earnings right like
you get a you get a bump if it exceeds expectations um you know maybe they're projecting the expectations
seem bearish which which is actually in a way bullish because it means that we're primed for
i think based on people talking about numbers like a billion dollars over 30 days that you know if bitcoin
is anything like what it's supposed to be it's going to beat that um which is which is you know
that's that's huge right like that's the key thing like tell me if the expectations are wrong or if
they're right if they're right i mean the question is like how many of the boomer types are finally
going to take a look at bitcoin and be like you know what i should probably invest some of my money in this
thing uh this is like the fourth time that the fucking economist has told me that bitcoin's dead
i i i i i honestly believe man this cycle is no different than the last cycle and listen guys like
i've got i've got the knowledge of macro um with like the size of a peanut right i i don't really know
anything and i see tuckers in the audience and when i was in kansas city right and even before that
i was saying like you know the long bonds trade is probably here because we're six months out from
the having and this was based on the thesis of just looking at a chart and tlt is now up like
like 10 off of that right and yeah but it did the same thing last fall look at the bottom in october
massive bounce in october went all the way it went down 100 bips from there tlt rate from october
forward i i i i'm just going based on like like the previous cycles right and like i always say
the long treasury bond does not respond to the having cycle it's that's that
yeah yeah i know i know this is this is just like pure pure left curve though um but joe i guess
i'll ask you this man what are your thoughts on like you know because i i know like we we primarily
discuss like oh gosh hold on my phone's about to die for for whatever reason and these iphones guys um
anytime i update it like my battery life just gets worse and worse and worse i went from like 15 down to
one i'm not sure what happens here but i mean one second guys but anyways man what i was saying is
like i sort of think there's a massive rotation going on from like coin stock and micro strategy
stock and i think like once you start seeing vol into like the etfs and all that stuff um i think
like the spot bid is going to be tremendous and i think the broader market um is honestly going to
rally and i think that like any sort of news events are going to meant to be faded i think like
the big news already happened with cz stepping down and like i put all of this on my personal profile
and you know i i was stating that like the last time we had um even on these spaces when i announced
it like when cz stepped down like the last time we had a huge exchange guy stepped down it was arthur hayes
in october of 2020 the context is a bit different because what about spf with spf that was the
bottom and i compared that to mount gox um i i remember like when when we were at the bottom like
you know when i was hosting individuals one-on-one i was kind of i was kind of picking people's brains and
thinking like you know what if the next cycle is more like the 2016 2017 cycle and this was just
looking at the way that we bottomed right like it was basically like it was pretty choppy right like
we just had a 20 candle and then it was pretty choppy we hit 15 5 15 6 on november 8th and then
we hit 15 3 on november 26 um so it was kind of like a grindy bottom similar to the to the to that
to that bear market right where it was a double top um for that bull market right in the 2012 2013 cycle
so i'm just really going based off of charts really and like it's pretty overwhelming like how active
this site has become because i don't remember it being this active in 2019 man and so i think that
like as this asset class grows and grows and grows the noise on both the upside and the downside
is going to get way more extreme way more extreme and like i'm excited to be here with you guys man
to be honest so um joe what are you up to man for the holiday season when are we all going to meet
up and play basketball brother yeah i played basketball the other night uh it was a lot of
fun a lot of high school kids that kicked my butt so it wasn't good joe let me ask you let me ask you
a question man um so i know like you've you've uh kind of compared pow and how like he wants to be
like volker and when volker left like like the s&p and the nats were we're absolutely ripping so like
like you know just just some dubious speculation man i know pow leaves on uh may of 2026 and you
know the usual consensus for all markets is sell in may and go away so if you were a betting man if
you were a betting man right do you think powell is going to leave when we're out roaring all-time
highs or like do you think he leaves right when the next bear market begins well number one i question
whether he wants to actually leave um that is a huge issue i mean like you know it depends on the
election for one i would suspect that he would be inclined to stay if uh biden does in fact get
re-elected um but then you know if you want to know it's really like one of the most bullish things
for bitcoin that you could talk about um is uh and i've said this publicly a couple times is a trump
victory if trump retakes the white house oh yeah you know i mean he oh boy you got to remember trump
was the guy who went out there and like literally every day was tweeting about the stock market and
like he would literally sign autographs over the stock market going like straight up in 2017 like
it was all over his twitter and he he was in a long-standing feud with powell about how the interest
rates were too high keep in mind at the time they were like you know one percent and he actually he
actually has tweets i saved them they're all on my phone i could tweet some of them out but they're
like our interest rates are too high they should be cut by at least 100 basis points and potentially
even go negative and we should engage in massive qe immediately to stimulate our economy our rates are
you know putting us at a disadvantage versus our competitors like you want to talk about like
inflation okay if if and i don't care you know some policies i really like of trump some i i don't care
for but you know put all that aside i'm just telling you just as a market like participant
like that is could be the most absolutely massively inflationary thing and i have always said it's far
easier for a republican-led white house and congress to get through big major stimmy checks and spending
packages than a democratic one because if the democratic congress is going to do it the the gop will oppose
it but if it's you know it's a republican white house and republican congress they're going to massively
cram through a ton of stuff to to stimulate so that's how you get to like seven hundred thousand
dollar bitcoin um but putting all that aside um you know i think powell i think powell uh really likes
the job and he really wants to hang on and you got to remember like uh you know he's not in in today's
world he's not like you know ready to shuffle off i think he really i was listening to him speak at
the it was like uh um i can't remember it was a college prep class school or something there was a recent speech
he gave um to the students and he was talking about how much he enjoyed the job and really loved
it and it was his dream and how he always wanted to serve in this role didn't sound like somebody
who's like you know putting on the the final note to his career it sounded like somebody who's like
settling in for a long you know tenure and uh you know we had plenty of precedent for people like
greenspan to sit there for what what did greenspan sir like four terms um so you know i i would not
write it off in your mind that there could be another powell term um and and quite honestly
like you know i think he will go down when all things are said and done is one of the greatest
fed chairs of all time but you know people hate me for that that's just my belief i'm in agreement
with you man j powell is a chad he's a chad i mean name name a better fed chair like i mean
greenspan basically gave us the financial crisis yelling kept us in a low growth period for you know
basically seven years um you know and and and you and bernanke i mean bernanke i i i understand his
role i mean but uh in the in the wake of the gfc but um i think you can have the points of very
questionable things in his tenure so i mean you know people like volker obviously that would be the
other major competitor but other than that who's who's your favorite fed chair it's kind of a short
list of you know uh of folks in there well we we have a new tall list man i know you're six foot
six six foot seven so my favorite fed chair right after j powell is gonna be uh it's gonna be uncle joe
so man would you ever be fed chair if you were uh if you were like voted in for that or someone like
gave you a reference for that and like you knew that you had a high chance of becoming the next
fed chair would you actually take that job or a fed chair like uh probably like pow i mean yeah you
know you gotta remember like i think it's far more interesting to be uh heads of the local um you know
like the federal bank of uh of chicago uh federal reserve bank of chicago the local branches effectively
uh um because they're they have a ton of precedence within their individual like little
fiefdoms um ton of power so that that's probably a better role as long as and by the way if you're
on the fomc um you know and don't have to face the press that paul does i think that's like you know
almost as good great i don't care for austin goolsby who's the current president the chicago president
you know what i find odd joe like why is kashkari so bearish man he's been pushing
bearish rhetoric for such a long time whether as before he was like the biggest bull out of all like
the guys who actually like work and macro and all that stuff and you know there's that famous meme of
kashkari saying like we're gonna print as much money as possible we're gonna get this economy up
no matter the cost when do you here's here's the problem okay guys so like in in a way i actually
think a soft landing uh which is seemingly increasingly more likely is like the worst
possible thing that can happen and there's a basic reason for that if you do not get a recession
and you get a soft landing okay what that basically means is that the economy can withstand higher rates
it means that inflation will go down you know you'll have some disinflation but you're not going
to get it like under two where it ran for like 10 years before um covid and what that does is that
you have to look at where where nominal yields are nominal yields just as a short basic you know
bond math are supposed to be a function of gdp and effectively inflation so you take growth in the
economy and then you add on the kicker for inflation because that's the time value of money
and that means that the 10 year should be yielding you know somewhere between four and five percent
depending on the level of gdp growth so if next year you know we come along at 2.5 percent uh real gdp
which is really like 4.8 4.7 nominal gdp and we printed eight percent nominal gdp in q3 if we have
those numbers god forbid i mean like that's crazy i mean that basically means the 10 year needs to
sell off hard and i think a lot of the people putting on the 10 year trade are kind of like
position for the recession well they may be very disappointed a year from now if we don't get a
recession because what happens is if gdp remains up and inflation doesn't come down those bonds
are mispriced and they have to sell off to match where growth is and like you know at that level
the government's going to continue to spend obscene amounts of money like it just keeps getting worse
so like the fed i think they'll tell you if you had a gun to their heads like we're prepared to
trigger a recession to get inflation down and much to their grin like basically uh they haven't been
able to engineer a recession which you know you can say that's good bad whatever it doesn't matter
i'm sort of agnostic about that i'm just telling you like it becomes a real problem for deficits
if inflation does not come down to like right at the two percent target and potentially lower than
the two percent target because of how much debt is in the system we kind of need uh we don't kind of
we definitely need lower rates of inflation than three percent which is where we're humming along at
now if you say well inflation is going to come crashing down so you don't need to really worry about
that that's fine i i hear you um but we still have not yet to see that we've seen disinflationary
trends you know that have taken a lot longer than many people expected and do you think that's going
to happen given oil's uh weakness and that that was one metric i looked at you know for 2022 as far as
like all right you know this whole bear trend thing probably ends like when oil gets crushed to pieces
uh which it did right i know matt he had like he had some shorts on uh on oil in june of 2022
and you know once he closed those out um you know the market just started pricing in like lower cpi
prints and you know after that january cpi print i'm like all right it's time to go wild in the markets
now so i know you were looking at oil earlier yesterday yeah i mean look so the the saudis have
been cutting like crazy production over the last year and they can't prop the price up um oil if they
hadn't done the cuts should probably be under 60 bucks um now you can read that a couple different
ways you can read that uh as you know just basically coming back to the norm coming back to
um you know like where where was pre-covid uh and i i think that's it's probably right i do know that
there are some very bearish people saying like listen to the message that oil is telling you oil
is telling you that demand is drying up the manufacturing cycle is drying up you know that
people are getting strapped for cash um and that's very bearish for 2024 um right where we fall ripped
up to new all-time highs and everybody's comfortable um i'm not saying that you know that's my view i'm
just telling you that's the argument a lot of people make like okay they've finally done it
they've like basically crushed uh manufacturing services are turning down there's some data that
suggests that you're seeing some early signs of other aspects of the economy rolling over
and you've basically eliminated all the bears so the markets can crash now like i mean uh i i'm not
saying i'm not calling for the markets crash but i understand people that believe that i think it's you
know it's at least plausible but i mean jp morgan's chief strategist said that next year um chief
chartist excuse me he just came out yesterday you can google it he thinks that the s&p 500 retest the
october 2022 lows well i can tell you and i i don't know if that's going to happen i don't have a view
one way or the other on that but i tell you if it does the bitcoin market is going to suck next year
if it does there's no i i would just i i believe very strongly that you can't have the global equity
markets crashing back to the october 2022 lows and have bitcoin ripping to like you know 200k
i don't believe it um you can say i'm wrong maybe i'll be wrong on that i don't really care i just
think it's so unlikely that people are going to be in a risk on atmosphere buying this stuff when you
know equities are crashing so i don't know you know to me all that matters is to take the data as it comes
the data remains very very strong the economy remains strong you've had you know several recent
prints that are well above expectations like the chicago ism numbers you know labor's hanging
in there we'll get another jobs report this week um i i don't think you have anything really to look
at to say there's an imminent like bearish you know uh sell-off coming or some you know huge 2008
style blow up on the early horizon there's just nothing there that suggests that um but you know
things can change quickly so you got to be nimble yeah i i do not believe in the season
we're gonna go to 3500 in the next three to four weeks that's ludicrous man that's that's that's
insane um yeah and this guy works for jp morgan right i mean google the article like he's their top
chartist right that he was just talking about you gotta love it man um i think i'm gonna wrap up here
man but um hash is there anything that uh you want to ask anything that you want to bring up as far as
like the crypto market and all that stuff i saw you requested to speak if anybody else wants to like come
up and like ask anything before i wrap up uh feel free to do so but hash what's up man
hi wabi how are you i'm doing fantastic man i'm doing fantastic how about yourself i'm good
i'm a little sad because we're at 44 and people are still bearish but it's okay they'll figure it out
um i just think like i don't know it's okay who's who's bearish i feel like every single person
and their mother is bullish yeah sure no am i am i wrong there there are people that are
i mean the bearish here the the the perp flow would suggest otherwise i mean we blew the really
shorts today on btc yeah do you look do you look at uh at perp flow at all occasionally yeah yeah i
mean i haven't looked recently so open interest on bitcoin after today's move like i was surprised
because we were building all this oi like all week and i thought it was longs for sure and funding was
kind of flat so it was hard to tell and then we had this blow today to 44 and oh i got obliterated so yeah
i mean data is showing that people are still shorting um so somebody out there is bearish in
a meaningful fashion that's crazy wow thank you for sharing that that is really surprising to me
because the other side too is that like the the bowl flow is just unmatched right now i mean it's
easy to see in the chart but it's like the tape is just out of control i haven't heard
i haven't heard it like this in a really long time are you playing candy crush or something what
is that in the background that's the sound of bitcoin uh oh he's using the agger he's using the agger
added some sort of noise to the blockchain now is that how it works it
well it it shows you it's just a a sound orientation of spot and perp orders so it's like my pavlovian
training for listening to bitcoin instead of looking at it too much um but yeah i just think
people are not bullish enough and they kind of don't get it and today showed that to me i like i was
totally i was totally surprised by how many people were short up here um i'm also surprised by how
incredibly well market makers have done at keeping open interest relatively low on btc
like we have been sideways on oi since the fucking low basically like if you zoom out and look at open
interest for btc it's crazy how good of a job they've done of flushing these fools out every single
fucking week like we're just moving on spot so i don't know it is like why why are people bearish here
i don't understand i think so i don't know i think i don't know because i'm not so it's hard
for me to put myself in their shoes but one of the things that i kind of have noticed is that it seems
to me that like crypto native participants are exhibiting more of like a bearish bias than people
that are from the outside looking in and i think a big part of that is just like
like being too close to the flame spending a year in the mud getting your teeth kicked in forever
like and then you come it's the same way that when i go to trad fi and trade i crush it because
i trade with fresh eyes like i'm not in those markets very often so when i go to participate
i'm not as clouded by my like time in that market and i think that a lot of crypto natives are facing
that problem um i don't know if that really explains the orientation it makes a ton of sense so next
speculative um hedge funds are like uber long equities right now like i saw a reading um that it's
like one of the biggest long positions they've had in like 10 years um which is fascinating to me
like how bullish they are in equities given your what you're telling me about bitcoin you want to
know what's crazy man like jim kramer he's often clowned upon but if you go on jim kramer's uh twitter
and you search up nvidia he basically said that like all bears are about to be taken out in a stretcher
during that dip in tech that we had uh during svb and nvidia just ripped same thing with the indices
uh back in may and june it's it's it's kind of crazy man like equity land um has been a fairly
easy trade as far as like tech goes all year so i do regret not like having a brokerage account because
like i use coinbase stock and micro strategy stock is like my confluence um for the majors and it's been
working and like you know i i asked uh like i i asked um there's this one guy called sethy he's
participated on these spaces and like when he tells me how like those call options have yielded i'm like
damn dude it's pretty much the same thing as playing an altcoin and i remember even like
when michael green was up here uh when nvidia was going absolutely crazy over the summertime i asked
him like you know if you opened up like a six-month call option on nvidia like how have those aged and it's
like you'd pretty much be up well over 100x so that's insane man but anyway i pinned up top
a chart for you to look at real quick that's open interest on the top and bitcoin price in the
middle oh yeah hanzo's wow yeah hanzo's great he's a good one to follow
yeah hanzo's pretty dope man well i'm gonna cut it here guys thank you all so much for
participating space is recorded feel free to follow us and all that stuff so see you all tomorrow on
youtube uh at like 11 a.m for market check take care god bless you uh bye bye and uh yeah bye
