Projects
![]()
No projects found
Investors
New
DAO Treasuries
DATs
Lend / Borrow APRs
Chains
Categories
Spaces
MARKET TALK- $ETH confirming alt season!? WELCOME to the bull run!
Recorded: July 18, 2025 Duration: 1:55:13Space Recording
Short Summary
The crypto market is witnessing a significant resurgence, with ETH BTC leading the charge and Coinbase stock experiencing remarkable growth. Predictions suggest bullish trends for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, as investor sentiment strengthens amid positive macroeconomic indicators.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Oh I can't remember anything, can't tell if this is true or dream.
Deep down inside I'm feeling the the stream This terrible silence stops in there
Now that the war is through and here
I'm waking up I cannot see
That it's not much later to me
Nothing is real but pain
Now don't my breath is tired
I wish for dead
Oh please God wait I know my greatest I wish for dear
Oh please God wait
That in the room is much too real It looks like that I'm always real
I can't look forward to her deal Look to the time when I live
And to the truth that's taking to me Just like a wartime novel I'm not going to be here I'm not going to be here
God, this life is far from me
Oh, my friends, I wish you dear
Oh, please God, wait for me All the world is gone, Oh, God. Thank you. . Oh Oh That's taking my sight, taking my feet, taking my hearing, taking my arms, taking my legs, taking my soul, let me realize that now! so so Thank you. so guys welcome back to market talk i hope you're all excited man it has been a journey with these spaces. You'll notice that I put the music relative to the price action.
So I believe from June all the way up until early July, I was playing Hearts on Fire by Rocky all the way up until the part where Rocky starts climbing up the hill.
That was when we were chopping on BTC.
That was when we were chopping on BTC.
But right when the breakout started to occur, I put on some metal classics that I'm glad you guys are enthusiastic about.
I see all the emojis and all that stuff.
So I'm glad I'm making the right music choices.
But, man, what an insane week, guys.
Robin Hood stock still ripping in price discovery every other session i'm sorry guys
some jackass is there just like putting the pedal to the metal on his scrap metal chevrolet
but um yeah apologies if you guys are hearing that that that idiot just making all sorts of
noises with uh his metal scrap can of a car but But either way, guys, Robinhood stock closing the day at near 110.
Coinbase stock still absolutely ripping.
The stocks that we've been talking on this show for two and a half years,
Robinhood stock and coin stock.
And coin stock, funny enough, closed the week at almost 420,
which I found to be absolutely hilarious.
You now have Coinstock actually testing the opening tick of its IPO when it was listed on the NYSE at 425, 430, something like that.
Nonetheless, Coinstock had its biggest weekly close ever hood stock
closed in price discovery we are seeing a little bit of a pullback on circle group stock and also
uh on the s p 500 but truth be told guys i i don't think we've seen anything yet i think once you see
the s p above 6500 i think once you see iwM above those Q4 highs from last year, I'll go ahead and see where the IWM actually closed that.
So we have the IWM making fresh weekly highs.
I think the highest weekly close that we've had since those lows in early April was at 219.
And we closed the week at 222, which is also quite funny.
All these numbers and all that stuff, 420 and 222.
But either way, guys, the setup here is just getting started.
And we're seeing ETH BTC ramping up once again.
Myself and Donnie were discussing a breakout on ETH BTC and then I'm like,
Donnie, what about others BTC? What about others? What's going on?
That is the metric that everyone wants to know.
So for those of you that don't know, others BTC is the valuation of all other assets outside of the top 10 in the cryptocurrency
market on their BTC valuation pair, which is what you specifically want to take a look at.
So I'll actually go ahead and put up a chart from my personal profile up here on the nest,
just so you guys can understand the setup that is about to happen in these markets that myself and donnie
have been discussing over these last few months where we can actually say the actual bull market
for all coins is about to get started so i put up a nice chart up on the nest where i discuss others
btc and uh also overlaid with the macd which is um a pretty solid indicator for where the
overall market is so if you guys just open up the spaces tab and once you guys do that you'll see
all of our cool profile pictures so right above that up on the jumbotron or the nest whatever you
want to call it you'll see the chart that i put from my personal profile and uh feel free to
take a look at that but others btc still has not crossed the 200 daily moving average and if you
take a look at what i have uh written there you'll see that i i was also touching upon eth btc
shortly before across its 200 daily moving average and the moment that ETH BTC crossed that moving average, as corny as it sounds when I say
that, ETH BTC gapped up almost 30% after the fact.
And the fact of the matter is, these algos that go off when asset prices cross the 200
daily moving average is a real thing. I mean, even with the S&P 500, after it crossed the 200 daily moving average, it gapped up
to almost 6,300.
And although you do miss a big meet of the move off of the lows, that is when the big
money starts to pour in.
And I'm sure you guys see all coins like avax and other strange stuff ripping uh over the last
few days like xrp as well and if you compare others btc to eat btc you'll see that others
is significantly lagging given eth dominance is probably going to go back up to previous cycle
highs of almost 20 percent and of course we also have TradFi throwing in hundreds of millions of dollars
now a week, I believe since early July, late June. So over the last three weeks or so,
the inflows for the ETH ETF have gotten so strong to the point where there are certain days where the inflows
are not that far off from the inflows for BTC. And something that I've been alluding to is that
ETH USD is about a year and a half-ish behind where BTC USD was. So if we circle back about a year and a half, that is when the ETFs for Bitcoin went live.
And essentially, Bitcoin nearly doubled.
It went from $35K, $34K, all the way up to $74,000.
And if we take that measured move to when these inflows for the ETH ETF actually started to matter,
when ETH was trading at, let's call it,
$2,800 or something like that. ETH is going into price discovery if these inflows continue.
And especially with all these tailwinds that we've had over the last week with the big,
beautiful bill signing, we have the Genius Act going live today, I think about an hour ago.
The greatest president of all time, Donald J. Trump, signed in the Genius Act, which is going to be absolutely bullish for this market.
And truth be told, I understand why people are timid on giving targets.
Like, I think the S&P is going to 10,000 in the next year and a half.
I think the Nasdaq composite is going well above 30,000.
And of course, that would correlate with a five-figure ETH.
That would probably correlate with Solana going above $1,000, especially if we have
all these treasury companies starting to allocate altcoins onto
their sheet, as we've seen with things like SBET.
Tom Lee's fund is also buying a bunch of ETH.
I believe they're actually buying from the ETH Foundation.
So a lot of the sell pressure is actually officially off of Ethereum.
And you guys know when Ethereum leads leads the market all their assets do exceptionally well and
the market conditions go from more pve uh they go from more pvp to pve so instead of going back and
forth trading the same shitters that don't really do much everyone's coins do well, whether you're in memes or fundamentals, AI, even NFTs, everything goes
up. And others BTC is indicative of that. So we have about 25%, close to 30% more of a rally to go
for others BTC to get above its 200 daily moving average. And we have a lot of confidence. We have
the IWM doing well. We have stocks that are crypto proxies
doing tremendously well.
SBET has done amazingly off the lows.
Some of our guys in Discord got into that
at the lows that are up like 3X
or something like that.
There's always opportunities in every single market,
especially in stocks.
If you're in crypto,
I would recommend you guys check out a few assets
that are traded right within your phone. Just download Robinhood, make an account, and within
the hour, you'll be trading stocks. Nonetheless, guys, a lot of cool stuff shaping out with ETH
BTC, others BTC. ETH BTC has now officially closed above the 200 daily moving
average for a couple of days now. This is the longest time that ETH BTC has been above the 200
daily moving average in years, might I add, in years, especially with where the MACD is set up.
We have a long ways to go. And if you pull up the monthly RSI on others,
BTC on ETH BTC on ETH USD across the board, we are again, nowhere near the levels of where we
were at last cycle or in previous periods of froth over the last two and a half years at 74K
at 108K last December, we have a ways to go so even though all right even though ladies and
gentlemen the uh crypto total market cap has now exceeded four trill congratulations if you guys
have stuck around this long we still have a ways to go we still have a ways to go so i'm going to
put up a few other charts of the nest throughout the space but guys i'm here
joined by donnie before we officially get started i'm gonna go ahead and ask you guys a very very
very small favor which doesn't take much time doesn't take that much effort and that is to
show some love to the space and you might be asking man what's the best way that I can show love and appreciation
to the space man Lobby comes in here with great energy he lays out the foundation for a nice
cook sesh for the entire panel how can I show my love and appreciation well guys I have the answer
I have the answer to questions that people don't even know how to ask quite frankly
but uh the best way you guys can do that is by clicking the spaces tab just open up your x app click the spaces tab down below and once you guys do that you'll see the nice user interface pop up
with everyone's cool profile pictures and all that good stuff and then you'll see a little link above that says x.com slash I slash
spaces you guys can go ahead and smash up the like button viciously smash up the like button as much
as Larry Finkelstein and Finkelstein have smashed up the green button on ETH smash up the green
button guys there there's almost 400 of you crypto enthusiasts in here so smash up the like button i want to see the like
button guys at at least 69 i want 69 likes and 42 reposts and retweets if you guys are grateful
for this market price action hit up that like button and smash up that repost button if you
guys are excited for higher prices smash up that like button smash up that repost button. If you guys are excited for higher prices, smash up that like button,
smash up that repost button.
If you guys have your bags packed,
smash up that like button,
smash up that repost button.
But either way, guys, thank you, thank you.
Feel free to put in your questions down below.
And of course, as typical fashion on our Friday shows,
towards the end of the space, I will be bringing some of you guys up.
So if you guys are here right now and want to bring up something to myself or Donnie, feel free to hit up that request button and I'll bring you right on up before the spaces ends.
I did send a few other invites to some of the usual crew But we'll see if they show up. I know I know chill is finishing up his stream. So maybe he pulls through
We'll also be having Evan Evan Aldo. He hasn't been here and I think in like two weeks
When ETH was training at like 2600 something like that, but he said he'll come through
But for the meantime, it's just going to be me and donnie but guys i want to thank you all so much welcome back to market talk brought to you by
because bitcoin i'm your host wabi and for the next 45 minutes to an hour uh we're gonna go
ahead and cook and we have lots and lots to discuss so donnie brother how are you, man? The equity markets, as far as the indices, have kind of been stagnant, bro, relative to crypto performance.
And from what we saw from mid-May up until early July, crypto was kind of stagnant.
And equity markets, even the indices, were going crazy.
And we thought, man, the catch up trade is going
to come. Once the S&P and the Qs start to chop around a bit, consolidate, crypto is going to
take over and it's going to happen quick. And here we are, man. ETH has essentially v-recovered.
We're talking about a pump now that is exceeding 160, 170% off of the lows.
I've positioned in some micro-cap bags.
I still have some of my bags that I got on ETH a couple of months ago.
And truly, the music doesn't start until ETH is in price discovery.
And that will be the actual wave that lifts all boats or wave that lifts all tides, whatever that thing is called. And we're actually seeing some of the same things that we saw in previous followed by eth dominance rising which is eth outperforming most
of the major assets and then as eth btc gets its wins on its sales we see others btc moving and
then you start seeing the mid caps and then the micro caps and low caps which you're seeing right
now on eth become fruitful and that sets the stage for easy mode, man. So how are you
feeling about the setup here that's been evolving over the last couple of months since those lows
in April? And thanks for coming on the show, man. It's going to be a great one. And the people are
in for a treat. And as always, man, if you have any charts to share, put them up on the nest,
man. Looking forward to the discussion hey bro yeah mark it's uh looking
super good from where we started to really uh see the playbook shift in april and that's kind of
where i wanted to start to just frame where we are and how we got here before like moving into the
more local stuff and all of the positive things that are actually starting to materialize now
uh across you know many confluent charts.
So yeah, basically from the low, as the low was being formed, you had the Trump admin pushing the detox route, which if you're a large investor and the people that essentially
control the money supply and how all of these flows actually work,
if they're telling you that they're going to take a detox route, especially being quite specific
with the markets, being sick and being reliant on spending and all this kind of stuff,
it's very hard for you to stay risk on, not in hopes, but in theory of that,
okay, they're not going to let this ship crash.
They'll actually back off from this if it gets out of hand,
which is exactly what they had kind of put out there.
They were saying that they want to just slowly ease into this detox route
and come out, let's say, a couple of quarters down the line
by taking that route.
And hopefully it's not too sketchy along the way.
So instead, those large investors, people that actually move markets, they were kind of forced
to exit out of fear of that possibility. Now, as the bottom was forming and things were getting
super sketchy in financial markets and specifically in the bond market, they started to pivot away
from that and publicly also signaled that they are going to pivot if this continues and they have all of the measures
to stop this volatility and they're willing to do so, right? Even had a little bit of
panic come out of the Fed saying that they also have the toolkit to intervene if things get
super ugly, don't freak out about the market. So that's what formed the low.
And basically what the setup was from that bottom was that if they incrementally pivot
out of that original plan, you're going to have investor consensus also start to incrementally
shift their positioning towards risk on coming to the market and essentially lead to a very
sharp rally off that low. You're also validated by DXY nuking from the market and essentially lead to a very sharp rally off that low.
You're also validated by DXY nuking from the highs and gold having a blow off top,
which you can say the M2 chart is bullshit or whatever, but gold is a nice absorption
of global liquidity as financial conditions ease, aka the dollar nuking that aggressively.
conditions ease, aka the dollar nuking that aggressively, it's a nice measure to essentially
see that, okay, global financial conditions are actually easing, liquidity is going up,
and we can expect some follow through from Bitcoin as typically Bitcoin lags gold by
a few months or something like that. So we had that. And we also had the narrative to amplify,
you know, the reason why gold is going up. You know, gold is a hedge against uncertainty.
It's also a hedge against inflation. You had both of those two in the mix.
And so you were validated that it is a real move. And likely BTC does follow. So we had the
liquidity side of things looking good. And then we had the narrative flip side of things looking also very good. And again, there was so much uncertainty because Trump was
still going through his negotiations route with tariffs, which essentially, if you're those
investors that sold, you were worried that he's going to pivot super hard back to that detox route
because of how hard he was pushing tariffs, which essentially was kind of shrinking the deficit, the whole point of that anyway. So it was a super sketchy setup for people that can't
be nimble like retail and just be in and out of the market on a whim. They essentially got
bamboozled by Trump, which is what I was saying is if you understand that, you're going to
understand how much higher we're about to go because the setup that they're pivoting to is extremely inflationary, which is extremely bullish for assets like Bitcoin equities and gold.
And that's exactly what happened.
So you started having technical levels get reclaimed on the S&P, on Bitcoin, and that essentially just keeps continuing the momentum.
And now we're at basically we're in price discovery on Bitcoin's chart. And we're looking for further continuation as those
same market participants are now looking to enter and, you know, pack up their risk allocation,
because they can see what's coming ahead, which basically we're kind of telegraphing from the
bottom as the pivot point.
And it's essentially materializing right now.
So what's materializing that caused this explosion and risk?
It's basically just that they signed the one big beautiful bill, which is essentially the engine to this pro-growth, pro-market regime that the Trump admin wants to push.
So by having that signed and actually, you know,
in the works, you're kind of left as to why would you be out of risk when, you know, you've got all
this downwards pressure on the dollar because it's such a highly inflationary setup. And now to
pack in on top of that, you've got Trump admin, you know, they actually said, well, Trump was like
kind of joking, but like you have to take every word and kind of note it as a reference point or a data point for the future.
He actually mentioned negative rates, right? He started off with, I want 1% down, I want 2% down,
I want 3% down. He actually mentioned negative rates. So it doesn't mean that we're headed
towards negative rates in the next 12 to 18 months, but they want rates down a lot, right? So that's
downwards pressure on the dollar, upwards pressure on risk. And that's kind of the main thing that's
been keeping the business cycle out of play in the United States as most of the low income households
and small businesses and things like that, they rely on debt and credit to essentially expand operations and things like that. So this is going to be massive for the people that actually do bid risk retail when
conditions are optimal and bid far out on the risk curve. And that's going to take many quarters to
actually materialize. So the best part about this whole setup was that you could sense the urgency of the Trump admin wanting to essentially get the ball rolling before midterms or before they even start campaigning for midterms so that they can win the midterms, which is why we were like, okay, I think the timeline is actually in our favor.
And we're actually going to pump sooner rather than later, how most people are expecting Q4 to 100% be bullish and nothing to happen in between.
The timeline wasn't so favorable for that for the Trump admin
because for these things to actually trickle through the economy,
okay, the markets are going up, but the markets are forward-looking.
For middle- to low-income households to actually feel
the positive economic benefits, it takes time for all of this
to trickle through the economy, which is why I was kind of saying,
I'm thinking we're going to pump sooner rather than later. And the cycle is probably going to
be elongated because by the time all of this goes
through the economy and everyone's feeling these positive benefits and rates
are down and all this kind of stuff, it's going to take many quarters.
So yeah, everything is aligning super well.
And this is why you've got every single risk on chart
essentially pointing up into the right
and looking for continuation
as consensus does start to shift
and start to actually understand this playbook.
And yeah, that's basically where we're at right now.
Expect rates to come down significantly.
We can talk about the whole Powell situation
maybe a bit later.
I won't go into that. There's actually a crazy setup going on with that. I don't know if I'll
share the chart today. It's a crazy chart, crazy potential forecast on my end, but I think it's
super bullish in the end. I'll probably post it at some point, maybe next week or something on
Twitter. But yeah, expect rates to come down significantly
more liquidity injections. We know
that they're deregulating the banking system
they already started with the SLR exemptions
there's a whole lot more that they're
going to do to unlock basically dormant
liquidity in the
banking system which is huge
right? You're essentially creating
dollars out of thin air and
injecting it into markets we know the
playbook around stable coins and that's you know I think they signed the genius act and all that
stuff around that whole thing recently so that's it in stone now we know the projections that
they're giving us with stable coin market cap increasing to you know trillions I think the
highest number Scott Besson has put out recently is 3.7 trillion.
We know that's an indirect proxy for US government debt. We know the bond markets are cooked. They
need to fix that. And this is one of their tools in the toolkit. And it's a massive tool. It's a
massive financial weapon on the US government side, which is beneficial for our bags, essentially.
Pump risk, engineer their environment for risk to do super well,
attract global capital into these markets,
which is a direct proxy for buying their US government debt
because they need stable coins to trade this market.
So literally the playbook is something that you,
I couldn't have even imagined no matter how bullish I got,
you know, let's say in 22 and 23.
I knew when Trump would come,
well, when he was running for president
and that the BlackRock ETF was in the mix,
I knew to be super bullish.
I just didn't think everything would materialize this quickly.
But we can see the stress in the bond market
is kind of adding to the urgency,
which is why they're just signing bill after bill after bill.
And you're seeing all-time highs start to explode now.
So, yeah.
That's basically my three main points on what to look for moving forward from here.
And now, yeah, I'll just zoom into kind of the technical setup that we're at right now,
which literally if I just explain to you the whole macro playbook of what I think is going to happen again,
like this is what I'm projecting.
This is my interpretation of all the data and the setup.
People think an imminent crash is coming
or some sort of doom and the whole world is going to starve to death
or something like that.
That's their interpretation of the data.
So you pick a side.
I think it's this way.
And yeah, this is the local setup.
So BTC went to uh 123k it's very clear there's
some sort of key level around 120 125 130 who knows where it is where you're gonna have you know a lot
of these algos across the entire crypto market just start to fire off like crazy but we actually
had something even better happen on this local pullback is ETH started to catch extreme bids and literally just go V reversal from those low levels, already breaking one of the key levels that I break to the upside based on everything we just discussed.
And two, with every local bounce, you saw Bitcoin bounce.
It came down to that low around, what is it, like 116
and it just bounced back up to like 121.
You saw ETH take massive liquidity, ETH BTC flipping super aggressively
and obviously ETH USD blowing up to the upside.
Now, of course, when Bitcoin pulls back, everything pulls back a little bit.
But I think with each bounce, there's a really nice 2021 example of this.
With each bounce, you're going to see ETH BTC continue to take liquidity into ETH as people are just so eager or maybe even rotating out of Bitcoin into ETH, which is going to essentially juice up the ETH chart even more.
So even if we do range here for a few days, again, that's a low timeframe set up on the
left.
It's a two hour chart.
This could last, you know, until the, what is that like another four or five days or
something like that before breaking to the upside, something like that.
With each local bounce, you could have ETH actually trending towards 4K and ETH BTC going
well beyond 0.03, which was one.03, which was the weekly market structure shift
on the chart to essentially put the momentum in ETH side with decent strength, essentially.
And then obviously, once Bitcoin actually does break this high, there might be a little
bit of push-pull on that ETH chart as BTC starts to take liquidity back, or maybe there's
just more capital flowing into BTC.
But nonetheless, the setup is bullish for both sides.
And yeah, you're just seeing everything catch fire
in the crypto market.
Now, one of the other super important charts
for Confluence to all of this,
I think I posted this on June 26th,
was just total two over uh coin uh
coin stock because coin has just been absolutely ripping and it's literally being correlated for
the last what is that like year and a half two years uh to total two which eth is a big percentage
of that um of that chart and i think when i posted, I was getting a few DMs and comments and things like
that of people being like, oh my god, we're actually decoupling to the downside, like we're
cooked. And then you just had the massive follow through to the upside. And now you can see that
this chart is re-syncing back up again. And like Wabi mentioned at the start of this show,
Coin is actually putting in higher highs continuously and actually touched its IPO price near 450.
So with the macro setup being extremely bullish risk,
of course, we've pumped a lot.
You can expect some local pullbacks and stuff.
But I think we're going to have massive continuation from here.
From what I can see from the gold fractal that I also posted recently,
which I'll post that as well.
Just give me a second.
This is actually a super important chart just to kind of finish off this note.
Here we go.
I'll just wait for that to load real quick.
Pull that chart up.
It's just BTC over gold and kind of the setup that we have. So as you can see, Bitcoin and gold,
they don't trade as technically the same.
Gold is a very smooth absorption of global liquidity
and trades very cleanly off global liquidity
expanding and contracting.
Whereas Bitcoin, it's so much smaller in market cap,
it has much more explosive expansions to the upside and downside to where it can kind of vary on the visuals, but it's still contextually the same.
You have a bottoming zone, you have a clear prior high that once you break through that, price starts to accelerate pretty well.
We were kept below our all-time high, forming that range when we had the World War III FUD, which is why I was expecting, without taking those local highs,
so you're building liquidity above.
So I was expecting a super sharp move to the upside,
literally just following the gold fractal.
And we got it. We got it to one, two, three.
But as you can see, it's a trend to get to those higher prices.
It's not just a straight vertical path.
And that's the trend that we're going
through now. A little bit of a local pullback, probably some local accumulation, another push
higher, maybe another pullback to the downside. But eventually, Bitcoin is going to come and
fulfill this fractal and find its local top here. At some point, my targets are 138 to 182,
somewhere in between there. If we have a bunch of crazy bullish catalysts,
which I think could be on the horizon
with all these bills that are being signed,
potentially an SBR announcement by the US government
on how they're going to purchase more Bitcoin,
whatever, it can be anything.
They're always ready in the background
when conditions are optimal,
whether it's the downside or the upside.
They always assist the narrative, these catalysts.
So we're essentially following this fractal likely to continue trending to the upside around that mid-August area.
Again, you can deviate. It could be a little bit earlier. It could be a little bit further out. Who knows?
But it's a similar trajectory.
And actually, I think when you do form that range after BTC finds its local top there,
as you can already see with this very local range, how much liquidity
ETH is taking with each local bounce, that's where you can
expect blow off top after blow off top across altcoins as ETH
starts to actually pass liquidity onto the altcoin market, which is
where that other BTC chart
should start to catch a major expansion to the upside and potentially even break market structure
to bullish on that monthly timeframe. So that's kind of everything that I'm viewing at the moment.
I think we've got a very nice bullish path ahead and basically nothing can stop this other than some immediate FUD around,
which I can already see the narrative kind of slowly building towards it.
I think it's a complete fade because I want to be on the other side of it.
Sure, if there's a technical setup indicating that we should sell to rebuy lower,
I'm going to take that and signal it.
that and signal it. But I think if Powell actually does leave, quote unquote, it could be immediately
But I think if Powell actually does leave, quote unquote,
bearish or just a sell event, followed by an extremely bullish event or pathway continuing
from that. So there's a lot of nuance there as to how it can play out and all this kind of stuff.
But yeah, I won't go through all of that right now.
But yeah, keep your eyes on my page.
I might post like a nice thread about it and stuff.
But I just think it's going to be extremely bullish
if he leaves in the end and the narrative is building
towards there's going to be too much uncertainty
and all this stuff.
I think it's the complete opposite.
Sure, you might have an initial sell-off
or something like that.
But I think what follows is literally
record-breaking
financial conditions easing which is just too liquidity positive for you to be bearish
donny man that that thread that you're speaking about the one that you're going to be posting
soon you should show it off on twitch man get the twitch audience uh spoilers before X, dude.
That would be quite the interesting discussion, man.
I might keep it private for the Discord, bro.
I think this one is an absolute generational cook, bro.
We'll see how nice I feel, man.
Bro, speaking of charts, man, what are you thinking about Bitcoin dominance, man?
It's now rolled over about 8% from the top.
And we're seeing the usual BTC, Maxi, I don't want to your low-cap tech stocks, sell all your shit coins
for BTC when dominance is pushing towards 70%. And here we are, man, ETH BTC above the 200 daily
moving average. And MACD officially making a higher low and higher high structure for the first time in years others btc not far away
from the 200 daily moving average where where uh some of your short-term targets for things um
like uh btc dominance if each btc and eth dominance are gonna start rolling up what are
some like short-term targets that uh you've got in, man? Yeah, I don't have too many hard targets for either chart just yet.
I think it's more of a trend that I'm focusing on.
So if certain levels are breaking on the chart,
which there is right now on ETH BTC and Bitcoin dominance,
ETH BTC is wanting to start getting momentum above 0.03.
It's currently above it right now.
But obviously, you need follow through.
You need higher highs, higher lows, continue the trend.
Same with Bitcoin dominance.
You're about to lose a nice local point here at 61.9%.
You're below that right now.
But again, you want to see trend continuation.
My line in the sand for where I think Bitcoin dominance might roll pretty hard would be if we lose that 54.5% election rally low, which is that kind of fake alt season we had or the start of one in Q4 of 24.
I think if you lose that sharply, then there's kind of no stopping this chart for a while, maybe even towards the
low 40s. So we'll just see. I don't know if it's going to be that linear this time on the Bitcoin
dominance chart and the ETH BTC Bitcoin
dominance setup might have a bit more push-pull than we've seen in the past and not just
completely nuke to the downside.
The thesis for the nuke to the downside is that we're cycle topping within the next two
hopping within the next two to four months, which I think is not going to happen. So that's kind of
to four months, which I think is not going to happen.
why people are projecting that same very sharp rugging of that chart. But again, the timeline
for me on macro level is even more so skewed to 12 to 17 months than five to 17 months now.
I think it's just leaning even more towards mid to late 26,
as far as I can see right now.
And again, I will trade confirmations as well.
But it's nice to have a very zoomed out view of what to potentially expect
and not be fixated on just technical stuff
where you can be completely blind as to how the world is moving,
which is essentially the most important thing.
The technicals kind of just validate your short-term biases and all that kind of stuff.
So yeah, I'm not even too worried about how the Bitcoin dominance chart and stuff moves,
as long as it's trending in the right direction, aka Bitcoin dominance down.
And I think it's going to have some relief rallies, like say it gets to 54%.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a big jump back in Bitcoin dominance.
We saw that plenty of times in 2017.
Bitcoin dominance nuked from like 75% all the way down to 50%
and then bounced all the way back up to 71%
and then rugged all the way back down to 35%.
So things like that in waves or in like that push-pull sort of mechanism,
I wouldn't be surprised
to see because there's just too much happening
for BTC where
taking liquidity back is not even going to be bearish
for the sector it's going to be bullish because BTC
is going to go even higher and then you'll have the
liquidity dispersed back into
ETH and Shrek coins so
yeah not worried I just want the
trends to continue
there's no fixed target
donnie brother
it's amazing to see uh this price action unfold for q3 we haven't seen this price action in the
crypto market since 2017 and geopolitically it's almost falling in line back again. You had
other market dominance like Asia outperform US equities. And during the second half of 2017,
you have the Fed flipping back to neutral, which is where we're headed, and back to US.s except u.s what's that term u.s exceptionalism yeah we've mentioned that a few
times here on the show and the summer is proving to be summer offense and i wouldn't be shocked if
we even trend if we continue to trend throughout september usually from early august all the way
until mid-september the markets cool off for a bit people walk away
from their desks but things are really ramping up and yeah i see mike alfred here in the audience
i'm gonna send him an invite to speak i remember i hope he caught my part man that felt that felt
like a good cook say what i hope he i hope he heard my part and didn't just join now yeah he he just joined now man
uh rip yeah i remember i joined his late night spaces last week and i'm like mike
eeth btc is about a rip others btc is about a rip you're gonna see a huge move
from uh low cap stocks and here we have the iwm closingM closing at fresh weekly highs since those lows in early April.
And we're even seeing some other companies that have been outperforming like Roblox, which have shocked people.
And we have Iron closing at fresh weekly highs since those lows in the spring as well.
Shout out to you and Mike for plugging that into the space at $8, $9.
And I think, I mean, I even told Matt when Iron was at $11,
like, dude, this thing is going to rip face.
You have a crypto proxy mixed with AI at a valuation of $4 bill,
$3 bill at the time.
I'm pretty sure it was like under three bill at
the time it was at like 2.8 2.7 and you have a lot of shit coins like chain link that are
absurdly overvalued you have dog water like ondo which i really don't like to be honest i i think
it's a fugazi project um but i'm not going to go into that. But relative to what companies like IREN are doing,
there's still a market for some of these low cap stocks to generate a huge amount of return that
you would get in the altcoin sector when altseason pops out. And it's great to see this
all in motion, man. What are some of your thoughts going into FOMC, man?
What are you kind of vibing out?
We'll see.
I think there's more going on with, again,
like Power potentially leaving,
but we'll see.
It's approaching pretty quickly.
So I haven't actually put too much thought
into whether they'll do a cut or not.
Yeah, I don't really have too many thoughts on that.
I'm really more focused on what they do with Powell here
than a potential 25 basis point cut or no cut.
So we have Mike on stage.
Mike, do you think they're going to let Powell off into the sunset a bit earlier?
think they're gonna let pow off into the sunset a bit earlier do you think uh it's all just noise
and um to get some volatility in the market but welcome mike our conversation last week was pretty
great and um it's great to see uh it's great to see you back on the show man how are you
i'm good good good week uh good month good year. Sometimes you've got to go through the crucible
of deep pain in order to come out the other side and extract the most epic
euphoria and exuberance possible. In fact, I actually don't think you can experience that
feeling unless you've experienced the most intense
pain, which is why, you know, I go run 30 miles in the mountains by myself with one 20 ounce water
bottle, uh, because you discover things about yourself at mile 17 or 23 when you're up at 10,000
feet and like a high Alpine meadow and you run straight into a moose, right? You discover things
about yourself that people sit at a screen, keyboard getting fat,
slamming Red Bulls, eating fast food, et cetera,
staying up late, not getting enough sleep.
Those things are putting pain on your body,
but not the kind of pain
that actually leads you to redemption,
which is why I do those things physically.
It's why I build large, concentrated positions in companies and other assets and hold them.
I buy them when everybody's afraid, and then I hold them longer than everybody else.
It's the same thing I do in the mountains.
I'm in my 40s, but maybe 0.01% of men in their 20s or 30s could keep up with me
over the course of 20 or 30 miles in the mountains like maybe one out of 10 000 something like that
maybe one out of 100 000 i don't know i mean at my peak it was more like one out of several million
um but it's you know it's like one of those things where if you focus and optimize for something really specific, you get a very specific, unique outcome.
In running, if you prolong your distance dramatically and you increase your volume, then you become much more efficient at covering distances that most people would leave them completely gassed.
They'd be at the side of the trail effectively dying of lack of oxygen asphyxiation, right? We'd have to send
them to the hospital to get plugged in to an IV drip and get on oxygen. But if you, if you train
to do that type of endurance activity, then, then it's no problem. And the same thing in markets,
right? Like a lot of people I can tell just aren't trained for this. They think it's supposed to be easy because people who make a lot of money in markets make it look easy.
But actually making a lot of money in markets can be quite hard.
You had to do what Donnie and I were doing in the spring, which is fading effectively the entire market, including, by the way, a bunch of people who claim to be bullish now.
I remember vividly at each of these inflection points who was bullish and bearish.
And I'm not going to mention any names, but some of my favorite people in the Bitcoin space
were bearish, for example, for the entirety of 2023.
They were trying to scare the shit out of you with yield curve and there was going to be credit
crises and there was going to be a huge recession
and of course in retrospect 2023 was that wonderful year where you should have just been
buying everything like absolutely everything at low prices and holding it um but to get back to
the get back to the current conversation i don't think it matters really what the what the fed does
in the very
short term like i think anybody who claims it's predictable is full of shit there's a bunch of
trad fi guys who come in here and say well the bond market says this and this and that and for
sure they're like the banks believe this and that i don't really think that matters i mean yeah you
could you can buy all the the bullshit you can buy all the the noise and all of the narratives that that powell
puts out in the market but trump is completely unpredictable and anything is possible like
apparently he showed a letter uh to congress people right that was a was a letter firing
powell there there are there are potential causes of action to fire him for cause, apparently.
Anything's possible.
I think there's a tremendous amount of political pressure on the Fed right now because it does
look like they're using textbook thinking, which is not tuned for the current situation,
to justify holding rates where they are.
When if you just look at inflation and you look at unemployment
and you look at their mandate they're much bigger risk of being behind the curve than than being
right than than being too aggressive at lowering rates and so i don't i don't know whether it
matters like whether they lower the rates here in september or whether powell gets fired or not
i think we're on the clock right now.
We're entering the period of maximum advantage for risk asset investors broadly.
And I think that period will run for six to 12 months from the moment the market believes
that that first, you know, that next major rate cut is coming.
And so I think we've got a good, I think we've got a good six months left. I think that overlaps
really well with kind of what's happening in the crypto market and what's happening in the equity
market. There may be some weakness here and there, right? And there may be some dollar strength here
and there. But I think the kind of three, six, nine month trend is super positive. And so I'm
not trying to guess. I don't even think it matters. I'm just staying positioned. In companies like Iron, which I heard you mention before, and you said
bringing up in your space at eight or nine, I just want to be clear. I was loudest about Iron
when it was trading between $1 and $3. And the people who've been around for two or three years
who were in my spaces in december 22 january 23
q1 of 23 i was banging the door loud the issue is nobody cared because they're like why do i care
about this hundred million dollar market cap company right how do i why do i cover this 150
million dollar market cap company that's where it was trading at the absolute low december of 2022
this is before a lot of the the equity issuance that has happened since, right?
Like the stock was trading at a dollar and there were only like a little over 50 million shares outstanding.
Like people won't even remember that anymore because it feels like another lifetime.
But that's when I was most excited.
That's when I was bringing together capital from wherever i could get it in order to buy more
of the stock and yes i have i'll continue to recommend it because i don't think the story's
even in the second or third chapter yet but um i just want to be super clear like i'm most excited
about equities when very few people are excited or generally actually scared. I prefer when people are extremely fearful and extremely scared.
And I prefer when a lot of the influencers in the space are telling people not to buy equities and to sell their crypto.
And that's my favorite time to be active.
At this point in the cycle, you just want to be long the stuff you've been long for two or three years, which is more or less what I'm doing. And to the extent at which I'm adding new positions,
they're well outside of the crypto AI ecosystem
because I think even though I see a demand picture there
that's just getting stronger and stronger,
you've got to look at a company like Corweave
and realize that that is the fate of companies
that get ahead of themselves.
So while the demand for liquid cooled
gpus is off the charts and it's super firm and there's no doubt that that's going to continue
for a while core we've topped out on extreme euphoria where years and years and years of that
demand and maybe more was already priced into the stock and so you have to have some ability to differentiate between a good company with a good demand story and a good investment.
And those two things can be really different, right?
Like CoreWeave's a good company.
There's plenty of demand for their services.
But at $150 or $180 a share, it was a terrible investment.
And I went on the record repeatedly over the last month to say that.
But, of course, when a stock is going up, it's not that interesting to hear that message.
People don't want to hear it.
Most people are closet momentum traders, even if they pretend to be investors.
A lot of people admit freely to be momentum traders, and that's fine.
I don't think those people make the vast majority of the wealth in investing long term,
but it's neither here nor there.
But that's what most people are doing they're just momentum trading right so they're chasing a stock like core weave
because they saw it go from 40 to 150 and they want to pile in because they think it's going to
250 and then they get caught long with 165 dollar cost basis on a stock that could easily go back
to 60 i'm not saying it will.
I mean, like I said, there's a ton of demand in AI.
But where Iron is totally different, I mean, A, Iron's at a 4 billion market cap.
Coreweaves, even after this pretty major 30 plus percent drawdown, it's still at a
$60 billion market cap.
And their entire revenue model is dependent on finding places to plug in gpus and keep those
gpus running and contract them out to customers and a couple things have happened one is the next
generation of of nvidia chips are so much better than the previous generation that people are in
a rush to to get those chips leased like if you're an ai company and you need capacity like if you can get that capacity at all
right now you're taking it down the problem is is that even if you buy those gpus as coreweave is
doing using debt they don't have anywhere to plug them in because there isn't enough liquid cooled
data center capacity in the u.s to to actually plug in all of those chips that are being created
so nvidia like can keep selling chips and
people may take an allocation simply because they don't want to miss out but they get the chips and
then there's nowhere to put them and so at some point you you start to hit a wall you know where
the bottleneck is right now in ai it's it's in infrastructure it's in physical infrastructure
it's in power uh you know it's it's in physical data centers, right?
It's in, it's in racks, just rack space.
Like, and as each generation of, of chip comes out, you need a different rack design and
rack configuration, different power density, et cetera.
And that completely changes the inside of the data center.
So that's the most interesting part of the, this market.
And I said this a month
or two ago a bunch of times of basically over the last quarter that like core weave there's no way
core weave was going to hit any of the revenue targets that analysts had ascribed to the company
unless they bought core scientific or galaxy heliocyte or applied digital or cypher or somebody who has significant data center capacity significant
energy because that's the only way they're going to control their own destiny and i got yelled
down by a bunch of kid analysts who came in the replies and said core weave doesn't need to do
that they can just keep growing growing forever frictionlessly with no physical infrastructure
and just keep raising money and issuing debt.
And they'll just be able to keep buying GPUs and they'll just be able to keep doing applied
digital deals.
And I said, you're wrong.
You're 100% wrong.
Like, I guarantee you, while their stock is still overpriced, they're going to try to
do a secondary or they're going to try to use their stock as currency to do M&A.
Voila, a couple of weeks ago, of course, right on time, they announced a fixed price
conversion share deal with Core Scientific. And Core Scientific got completely taken to the
Woodhouse because they agreed to a fixed share price conversion with CoreWeave at near the peak
of exuberance when the stock was trading at 165 it's 120 something now um and so every day that core
weave is going down the value of of the transaction for core scientific shareholders is going down
which paradoxically might actually be good if you're long course scientific because the worse
this gets the better the more likely it is the deal gets disrupted either by the shareholders
voting it down or by somebody coming in from the outside and making an alternative bid.
I mean, this would be the perfect time for Microsoft or Meta or Google to come in and just take it away from CoreWeave
because it's such a bad deal.
All they need to come up with is maybe $7, $8, $9 billion cash, just like pocket change for some of these companies,
and they would control a gigawatt plus of power optionality in an existing data center
that CoreWe weave is on the
hook to put 15 to 16 billion dollars of cash in over the next 10 years including five billion
dollars of capex that is owned by core scientific at the end of the lease right so it's an incredible
like incredible job by the core weave management team to effectively like steal the company
from from the from the shareholders of Core Scientific.
I'm just not sure that the deal will actually close in its current form.
And that's why on a day like today where CoreWeave is down 5%, 6%, 7%, Core Scientific
actually bottomed at some point and then finished down, well, I think a little less than 1%.
I think there's going to be the correct arbitrage.
The only arbitrage here is not because it's really hard to short Corweave.
And you don't necessarily want Corweave shares anyway at the end of this.
But the correct arbitrage is just realizing that it's very unlikely that this deal closes unless Corweave's share price rallies significantly for some extraneous reason.
extraneous reason it could just be again there's just so much demand in the short term
for chips that core we could rally right back to 150 160 completely on exuberance even if it's
overvalued and that'll be enough to pull core scientific higher but there's some interesting
stuff going on here right because i think we're months away now maybe weeks away from maybe one
of the first direct hyperscaler to previous Bitcoin miner deal,
right? So most of the deals that have been done in the sector to date have been between CoreWeave
and converted Bitcoin miners, right? So starting with Core Scientific, right? That was the first
big deal in May of last year. And then CoreWeave tried to buy Core Scientific in June. They did a
deal with Galaxy a few months ago for the Helios site,
and then they did a deal with Applied Digital,
who had lost Microsoft as a tenant,
had made promises to the market to get a deal done,
and basically were so desperate to get a deal done
that they gave away a big chunk of their economics to Fortress,
and they gave away more than 5% of the company in warrants to Corwee,
which Corwee promptly sold within
a week of signing the lease agreement.
It shows you how highly they think of Applied Digital.
But those three companies all are converted, right?
Like at one point, they did some Bitcoin mining or some Bitcoin mining hosting.
And now they're effectively, all of them have gone pretty much all in on on aihpc
um tara wolf did a deal with g42 right which is like a like a middle eastern uh backed right it's
a nation-state backed uh ai kind of infrastructure company um and so that's like the one direct
company the problem is like a lot of u.s investors don't understand how big of a deal that is. I think what U.S. investors need to see now
is Meta, Oracle, Microsoft, Google, et cetera, right? Like names like that doing a direct deal
to convince people that this power shortage, which I see very clearly in this high demand,
low supply environment that we're in for AI capacity,
people just need to see that direct deal done.
Doing a deal with CoreWeave is a shortcut.
It's like an easy way to get something done quickly
because CoreWeave already has the kind of connectivity with the hyperscaler.
But that's not the best economics.
If you're an infrastructure owner, you can get better economics or at least like more control by going direct.
And I think the hyperscalers have started to figure that out, right?
They're realizing, wait a second, like we don't have to contract with a neocloud that doesn't own anything.
have to contract with a neocloud that doesn't own anything we can just go directly to the data center
owner and and try to strike a deal direct and cut them out of it and so that's something that i think
we're going to see between now and the end of the year i think somebody like a cipher or a hud8
is going to is going to ink something like that and that's going to completely change
the entire ecosystem and it will it'll be like a tsunami or
like a set of dominoes where you know all the water goes out and then all the water comes in
and it only takes one right because there's still a lot of skepticism that that's even possible
there's i remember when their first core scientific core weave deal was announced all the kid analysts
came into these spaces and they're like there'll never be another deal like this done ever again this will be the best economic deal in the history of the
ai infrastructure space there'll never be another bitcoin miner you knew this and i went on the
record at the time and i said guys you're you're so full of it you have no idea what you're talking
about right like now the market's proved it if core Core Scientific's deal with Corwee was so good,
why the hell are they selling the company at such a huge discount
to just the intrinsic value of the cash flows
that the company is going to get over the next 10 years
with the retained value of the infrastructure
and a whole bunch of power optionality
that's not even really been used yet? The only reason why they did that is they didn't like the situation
that they were in as much as, again, the kid analysts were telling me they would like it.
If they really were in such a good situation, there's no way they would do this deal,
right? Because it's such a bad deal. The structure is just all wrong. They didn't preserve any upside
for the shareholders and they saddled them with the weight of CoreWeave's overvaluation systemically
in the deal structure.
And so here we are.
Hopefully some kid analysts and kid traders have learned lessons from this
that they can then employ to do better in the future.
But the next big thing that's going to happen, I can tell you right you right now over the next six months is there's going to be major fireworks major announcements direct deals
with totally different economics than core weave that are going to cause a total re-rate for anyone
who has the capacity to do that and that's why you've seen such a big uh you've seen this big
disconnect between the valuations of the treasury slash all-in on bitcoin
so-called miners right which you think with bitcoin at 118 or 120k those companies would
have seen a nice re-rate and they're actually trading like worse than if they didn't have the
bitcoin on the balance sheet or at least weren't overmphasizing the bitcoin on the balance sheet like marathon riot
and and others like went in the market and bought bitcoin um and then now they're sort of reversing
that strategy strategy realizing there's no sustainable competitive advantage to just
following micro strategy you'll never catch micro strategy and you may not even stay in front of
jack mallard's right you may not even stay in front of front of meta planet um and so your one advantage is that you could actually create
bitcoin below the market price that's the one advantage you have and so if you're bad at that
and you're diluting shareholders in order to buy bitcoin in the open market then your business
model is fucked like you're just you have no you have no long-term
sustainable competitive advantage so there there are some companies that have a lot to figure out
strategically but the companies that control a large amount of power who can mine bitcoin at
scale right now profitably for say less than 50k all in which they're only a handful
you can look at the math
yourself if you want, but it's really just three or four companies probably globally that are doing
that. But of those companies, there's only a handful of those who could actually do a direct
deal with a hyperscaler. So you have to climb around in the weeds a bit and look underneath
every blade of grass. But if you do the work, you realize there are companies, which I put iron in that category,
that are probably significantly undervalued relative to the long-term monetization of the asset base.
But, of course, people want to see the results.
And that's what we'll all be waiting for and watching for over the next few quarters.
Mike, you know, when you bring up the bottom of the equity markets from late 2022, I put up a post up on the Nest for my personal profile.
And it was in early December.
And you'll remember when equities bottomed out in October, they were actually outperforming crypto for a
little bit while Bitcoin didn't bottom out until Thanksgiving week, weekend, something like that.
And I remember when we started having a little bit of a pullback shortly before GPT went live,
I remember going out to the mall and thinking, this is a completely different world than what
I'm seeing on Twitter. Everyone on Twitter was screaming that the S&P 500 was going to go to 2,600,
that the Nasdaq was going to go to 7,000, that Bitcoin was going to 7K, 8K.
And I'm thinking to myself, how can these guys that are saying this claim that they've been in Bitcoin since 2012, 2013, but be speaking like this when Bitcoin and just general markets as a
whole have retraced from their all-time high in the usual nominal amount, which is usually
70%, 75%, close to 80% for Bitcoin, and 25% plus for the indices. And I put it up on the nest and I said, bears are getting way too euphoric
about incoming doom. And as Joe Biden says, the economy and its internals are very strong.
We're not going into a hard recession anytime soon. And I'm not sure if you've had this
individual on your spaces. His name is Hermmas. And he actually convinced me to think bigger when it came to stocks.
And I remember I had him on one of these spaces.
And I'm like, you know what, man?
I actually think that the S&P 500, and Matt can attest to this too, because I had him
on the spaces at that time also.
And I thought the S&P 500 is probably going to be at 6,000 within two years.
And if Trump actually wins the election, I think going into midterms, you could have the S&P eclipsing 10,000 and having somewhat of an echo bubble from the tech stock narrative that you traded in the late 90s.
But I want to ask you this, Mike. So we're seeing
a lot of these treasury companies pop up, right? But it seems to me that they're just trying to
copy Michael Saylor. And if people really want to say, hey, if BlackRock is accumulating all this
ETH, which over the last two weeks, I believe the inflows on the ETH ETF exceed 200 mil, 150 mil.
Why not position in something that has already been around for multiple years and has an individual that not only has crypto experience, but equity experience like Mike Novogratz's Galaxy, which is still below its previous cycle all-time high.
And if we take a look at the market cap between Galaxy and MicroStrategy,
I think Galaxy here has a nice trade to catch up to the upside.
What do you think about that, Mike?
Specifically as it relates to Galaxy and MicroStrategy,
I mean, they're just such different businesses.
Like, I don't think they're good comps, really.
I understand that Galaxy has crypto on the balance sheet, but they're really like a deep capital markets business and asset management, a trading business, a lending business, right?
They're all over the place, right?
They got Helios by lending to Argo, who failed,
and then they got the asset,
and now they're turning it into an AI asset.
I like Galaxy.
I think Galaxy can go a lot higher.
I'm not seeing where there's like an ARB to close
between Galaxy and Microrostrategy because i think
they can trade completely differently i mean at the end of the day everything that's linked to bitcoin
um is and everything that's linked to crypto broadly when we're risk on like we are now and
like we probably will be for at least three to six months at a minimum like all this stuff's
going to go up it's merely a question of what's going to go up the most and then what's going to top first and then what's going to fall the most at the at the end of the
cycle and there are people saying there's no cycle and the cycle's over four-year cycle's over and
and i think until there's any proof that that's the case i think the smart thing to do is is to
assume there will be some sort of major pullback at the end of whatever the next major run is, whether that takes us to 180 or 200 or 250 or 300 or even 500 on Bitcoin.
At some point, the higher we go, the more likely there is a 50% plus correction.
plus correction right if if it's a pretty shallow rally from here then then i could see the argument
of like uh you know uh some not no like major top until 26 or 27 right where we just we go up to 140
150 and then we're back to 120 130 we range and then we run up to 160 back to 140 range right like
that would be a totally different cycle dynamic than what
i think a lot of people are expecting based on previous cycles which is like bitcoin just wakes
up at some point like maybe it bases all the way up to 150 or 180 by q4 and then it goes vertical
from 180 to 300 or something right like if it does a move like that, then I'm pretty sure there will be some fallout from that once it stops going up.
How big that drawdown is, who knows?
Part of it depends on the overlay with the broader liquidity cycle, where the rate cycle is, whether there's a recession in the U.S. or China or Japan there's you know other factors at play in the broader macro
environment and it just so happens that the like liquidity cycle has been tightly coupled with
the bitcoin cycle and election cycles since bitcoin's been around like the the liquidity
cycles have kind of tightened up or at least run alongside bitcoin and it's possible that
then maybe there's some decoupling in
that this time around, combined with institutional factors like the ETF and all these treasury
companies that caused Bitcoin to be able to go up longer after the halving than it has historically.
These are all possibilities. But I'm definitely not going to do any relative value trading on any of these names.
So I'm not going to be long one name, short the other, trying to capture the spread or trying to capture a valuation differential.
I'm not going to be doing any of that over the next six months because all of that, I think, will be value destructive relative to just being long like all the best
companies in this ecosystem until they get to valuations where individually you look at the
company and you say I think this valuation is largely pricing in like all of the good things
that we know are going to happen and I don't see that yet Like the market's not even pricing in the U.S. government buying or adding to the SBR directly.
Right.
So and the miners are not pricing in 150 or 180K Bitcoin yet.
And I think that's a virtual inevitability before the end of the cycle.
So until I see I start seeing some signs where it looks like the individual equities, again, like I'll go one by one.
I think a lot of the treasury companies like MicroStrategy had priced in 150 or 180k Bitcoin like last November, which is what I was telling people in spaces the week before Thanksgiving.
Like this is not normal behavior.
not normal right behavior i own the equity i like the company strategy but at 535 dollars
I own the equity.
where we are with bitcoin we were still like just under 100k i thought it gotten a little bit ahead
of itself right and i think you know meta planet went through something similar over the last
couple months where it caught fire and became like a mania stock. And even though it's up 300% year to date,
it's down whatever it is, 20, 30% over the last month.
And that's fine.
And if people were in it earlier, that's great.
But the problem is that most of the capital piles in
after the moves already happened.
So the lived experience of the average investor
in some of these names is negative,
even though you can point at a chart and say, look, year to date, it's up X percent or over the last
year.
Do you know how many people who are on X who are tweeting about these companies were actually
around a year ago?
Like every single time there's a new mania in one of these treasury companies, there
are like thousands of accounts that pop up that didn't exist or existed, but never talked
about these names until the the first day about meta planet
and so i see unsophisticated investors who have not been investing very long saying they bought
meta planet a month ago and i'm like r.i.p like there's nothing wrong with meta planet it's a good
company they have a good strategy but if you're buying it at the peak of euphoria you're you're
going to uh experience the the drawdown and maybe you'll get it back the peak of euphoria, you're going to experience the drawdown. And maybe you'll
get it back, right? Maybe it'll rally back and go higher. But I don't like taking those kinds
of bets. I think the treasury market, the Bitcoin treasury market in particular, has gotten really
crowded. There are a lot of names that you can choose from. And a lot of them have no significant
competitive differentiation, right? So they're all just going to be buying Bitcoin this week at 117 or 118.
What value am I getting as an investor that I can't get by just, if I really need more Bitcoin, I can just buy it myself.
And compare that, contrast that with a bunch of infrastructure companies that basically can't be rebuilt at current prices there you can't
actually acquire power right now and get an interconnect agreement because the grid study
and the load study the environmental study and the the queue just to get on ercott for example
it's five six seven years long right so so you you could have all the money in the world and you can't actually recreate cypher you can't recreate iron it's actually like impossible it can't be recreated but i could raise
500 million dollars next week and do uh reverse merger and i could start buying bitcoin at market
prices and i could be the next uh anthony pompliano's back, right? I could be the next Jack Mallers or the next David Bailey,
right? Unfortunately, they're all nice guys and they're all meanwhile, but they're a dime a dozen
and none of them are going to catch microstrategy. So I don't really understand the point
other than as long as the markets are open and someone's willing to provide capital,
guess what? There's always somebody who's willing to take that capital. People aren't dumb.
If you give them $500 million, they'll take it. They'll become CEO and they'll pay
themselves a bunch of money and they'll go buy Bitcoin and maybe somebody will buy their
stock and make it go higher than it's worth. But we are seeing signs,
topping signs in the treasury market equity space broadly.
There are a bunch of
those stocks that have been either pretty weak or have put in like potentially significant tops
and i would not be surprised if those companies top out significantly before the actual cycle top
and bitcoin again simply because of some of the technical dynamics around a lack of demand for a crop of companies that are relatively undifferentiated.
But again, nobody wants to hear this.
Investors in these companies really want me to be wrong.
It's fine.
I don't really care that much.
I continue to own MicroStrategy.
I've sold enough of it that I'm comfortable holding it until wherever it goes from here.
But for new capital, it would be an absolute
no, no. It would be it would be a dereliction of duty as a professional investor to put new capital
into Bitcoin treasury companies that their only strategy is to buy more Bitcoin as it goes up.
Like if that if your only strategy is we're just going to keep issuing more securities
from investors as long as they provide us with capital and we're going to buy Bitcoin at 120,
130, 140, 150. If that's your strategy, then people need to think about it a little harder
and do the math and realize that you're not going to make money over the full cycle as an equity
investor doing that. There's nothing there, right? You are going to pump the price of Bitcoin,
so you should be long Bitcoin because as long as the capital markets provide these companies with capital, you should own Bitcoin.
You should be very careful about owning companies that all they do is buy Bitcoin at higher and higher prices.
Those companies, some of them are going to get absolutely wrecked on the way back down.
Dang, man.
What an absolute cook session from you, Mike.
I'm not really sure how to follow that up.
But guys, if you're enjoying this conversation with myself, Mike, give everyone here a follow.
Give everyone here a follow.
And Mike, I wanted to ask you, are you taking a look at the altcoin space right now, specifically with things like ETH BTC?
I put a little chart up on the nest um eth btc has been
uh leading quite aggressively for the first time i would say since uh since last cycle
and i think this cycle is actually showing a possibility of recreating some of that old magic
that we've seen in previous cycles as you start to see the Fed
going from a more hawkish stance to neutral, which we did see during the second half of 2017.
And when Donnie was speaking earlier, he was pointing out that Bitcoin dominance,
what was it, Donnie? It went from 70% to 40, back to 71, and then all the way down to 35%.
So I think we have a pretty clean setup here, Mike, for a similar melt-up from what we saw in these low-cap stocks to trickle down into crypto, especially with BlackRock buying, ETH.
You have other proxies like SBET and Tom Lee.
And we also have some signal from ARK Invest, which is actually in a bull market for the first time in a few years.
That one closed at fresh weekly highs.
Looking at ARK right now, I actually think this is the highest weekly close that ARK has seen in over three years, which i love to see love love to see that
what are some of your thoughts mike yeah so uh well first off um at one point two three years
ago i was like deeply embedded in the kind of bitcoin community right where like i was doing
all the bitcoin podcast and meeting all the
bitcoin people and i quickly realized that like in order to stay uh you know connected and not
become a persona non grata in that community you have to self-censor you can't talk about
company investing you can't talk about value investing you can't talk about ethereum or
solana or alt coins or any of that
because if you do then the maxis will like come out of the woodwork to slander you and and try to
like hurt you in the real world right like um and so i i kind of pulled back pretty aggressively
from that community a couple years ago and part of it was precipitated by just like getting in multiple clashes with maxis over stuff in retrospect that was quite silly because i ended
up being right right like about a lot of the stuff that i said but it doesn't matter because a lot of
the maxis they're pretty one-dimensional uh people right they just they own bitcoin and like that's
all they understand and they don't really have a lot of experience in anything else and so it's kind of pointless to argue with them about other things because they don't have any
real knowledge base there because they literally spend 100 of their time on bitcoin but look
earlier this year i called out that i shares ethereum trust a few times to people um i was
catching it on the way down right so uh this was during the big drawdown in like
march april all the way into may right like the ethereum trust went all the way down to
god wherever it went to 11 something like that and now it's i think 26 um so that was a tough
that's a tough thing to to knife catch on right because it just kept going down to 20
mid 20s to 11 and now back to mid 20s
um, but it turned out that like that was actually the right thing and I do own the I shares
theorem trust I've owned
physical bitcoin a physical ethereum the spot ethereum since
My current position since 2020. And so my cost basis on
that is just over 300. They've disclosed many, many times in interviews and spaces and whatnot.
And so I'm holding, I haven't sold any Ethereum this cycle at all. It looked like it was
underperforming Solana for a long time. It looked like it was going to underperform Bitcoin forever.
And if you listen to Maxis, it was never never ever going to have its moment in the sun again
but here we are and it's having a moment in the sun will it persist i don't know
it's not important to me whether it does or doesn't as they said at the beginning of the
cycle i think you want to have the right allocation to effectively everything that's leveraged to this ecosystem. So that includes Bitcoin, MicroStrategy, Coinbase, Ethereum,
the best Bitcoin miners like Iron and Cipher and CleanSpark and others, right?
You want to have all those things in a basket and whatever.
You can have some ETFs in there.
You could have the GBTC at the bottom of the cycle end up being a great trade.
But I just wanted to own all of those.
And you don't really want to try to move too much inter-cycle because if you do, you'll find yourself with no Ethereum right when Ethereum is rallying.
Or you'll find yourself with no miners right when miners are outperforming.
Or you'll find yourself with no Bitcoin like some people do, which is sad.
But they end up trading their way out of their Bitcoin and then they wake up and bitcoin's fifty thousand dollars higher so i think the most important thing now is not to try to
catch every like rotation between altcoins and bitcoin and other proxies miners lever dtfs
whatever it's to stay put in whatever your full cycle best ideas are and hold position as long as you can that's how
you make the most money it's not chasing ethereum this week because it's up right because if you
the moment you if you didn't own ethereum before today you go in to buy it it's going to go down
in bitcoin terms it's just the way markets work um so if you if you really want to own ethereum
for the rest of the cycle fine take a position you might want to like dollar cost average on a weekly basis for for a month or
two but um because it could have a nice pullback after after this most recent rally um but i'm
agnostic right i don't think you have to have a strong view on every single one of these things
idiosyncratically i think like i said the most important thing is your macro allocation. Did you generally get it correct?
Did you allocate enough money in size at a high level into this ecosystem at the right prices such that you're basically guaranteed to win and win big if you're right?
And so I think we're in the midpoint or somewhere between third and sixth inning of what's going to play out in this cycle.
And so there's going to be multiple other inflection points. There'll be a moment
later this year where Solana is crushing Ethereum and there'll be a moment where
Bitcoin takes the reins back and is outperforming all the alts and the alts are down huge,
but Bitcoin's flat. And then there'll be a moment where the miners are wildly outperforming
microstrategy and a moment where the microstrategy is wildly outperforming the miners, right? That's just the way these cycles work. And all of that movement,
when you look back across three or four years is a lot of it's going to end up being noise.
And most of the people who try to trade any of the connections between all those assets,
or try to arm them or take advantage of relative value or chase on a momentum basis,
whatever's working
today or last week most of those people are going to lose money compared to someone who did nothing
other than just buy like five or ten things in 2023 and then sit on their hands until 2026 like
that person's going to crush all of the people who think that they're going to jump in between
bitcoin and eath this week and make money doing that um So again, I'm agnostic. I think Ethereum could outperform for the rest of the cycle. That's
very possible. If it mirrors other cycles, there'll be a three to six month period here
where Ethereum absolutely rips. Bitcoin will go up too, but Ethereum might go up more.
And then there'll be coins I've never even heard of that go up way more than Ethereum.
That's typically the way these cycles work. I just know my game. Like I don't play those other things really. I own
two coins, Bitcoin, Ethereum. I own a couple of ETFs and I own a whole bunch of equities,
right? And that's what I do. And that works really well for me. And it doesn't require me to
pay too much attention day to day to like whether one set of coins is outperforming another
set of coins like to be totally candid i don't really care it has very little to do with my
long-term success investing hey matt i'll pass it to you man i saw that you had your hand up
what's going on matt
oh i did uh yeah oh you caught me yeah i thought you were gonna i thought you were gonna say
something i i agree with you i'm just throwing the thumbs up and agreeing along with what mike
was saying i found myself nodding that you know it people wrap themselves up too much in uh what
tickers they're holding and what exact uh what exact assets they had at any given time.
Oh, you underperformed me, but I overperformed you and all that.
But the correct answer was you needed to be fully allocated all 2023, 2024,
now into 2025.
And you've had not one, not two, not three,
but four plus wonderful opportunities to double down triple down quadruple
down um and i love those moments because it's a ghost town around here uh it's it's basically
you wabi donnie myself and then barely what can barely fill the room maybe 80 people 110 if we're
lucky and you know no one wants to hear like hey bitcoin's in a 30 draw
down 25 draw down when was this when was this man it gets bad i i don't i don't i i think the lowest
number that we saw here was probably like I'd say 220
like at max
it usually takes like
half an hour
I didn't mean to offend
that was death
80 people
maybe a 15k
people got destroyed
you're right
when you're in the middle
of that massive red candle if anything
you have a huge spike in attendance you might get a thousand room uh 1500 plus room uh when
when bitcoin is just crashing through support levels but anyway long story short um yeah if
you're if you haven't been fully allocated what what were you waiting for, truly?
We've had nothing but bullish news month after month,
quarter after quarter on the macro level.
I won't repeat everything that Donnie said.
He was spot on.
But we're right in the middle. We're entering a brand new earnings season.
And wow, what do you know?
S&P 500 companies are reporting over 80% beats on expectations.
You know, these are the companies that move our economy.
We're going to have, you know, Big Tech and the MAG-7 and all the big blue chips report in less than a week and a half now.
And no one's bearish.
Like, no one, you know, everyone's just questioning how big their beats are going to be.
But for some perspective, the five-year average is 77%, 75%. The 10-year average is 74%, 73%.
And we have over 80% of S&P 500 companies already reporting beating expectations. This is a red hot economy. Labor market confirms it. Strong. CPI inflation
confirms it. You actually had a little bit of a blip, a little bit of a pop to the upside.
So it's red hot. It's strong. Earnings are just starting. But if you paid attention in 2024,
if you paid attention in Q1, 2025, if you've been paying attention all q2 like these
companies are going to melt face um so you know when everyone's making money when everyone's doing
well that uh that money's going to flow into bitcoin that money's going to flow out the risk
curve everything's going to pump so uh yeah i'm excited for it. You're right.
Just stay long.
Try not to overtrade.
There's absolutely nothing wrong with like, hey, if you're an XYZ token and you rip a 500%, not naming any names, but if you just rip a 500% in 50 days, like there is nothing wrong with locking that profit into Bitcoin.
But, you know, that's neither here nor there
yeah it's been quite the quite the journey matt um i am liking this move that we're seeing out
of arc invest i i really really do um that one is going to be a monster.
If it actually goes into price discovery,
that's when you know true easy mode is on the table.
This thing right now is, I think it's, I think, dare I say it, Matt,
probably going to flip.
It's 2022 yearly open.
So I would say like...
It depends if Kathy Wood doesn't overtrade.
So she would be at a new all-time high.
I know we talk about it over and over,
but she would be at a new all-time high today
if they didn't dump their entire NVIDIA allocation
back in late 2022 early 2023 she was the bottom of the nvidia
chart uh over two years ago that was the bottom now you want to know something crazy man robin
hood stock is up over 40 percent in the last month man oh yeah you love this thing is up almost 200 percent year to date i beg you to buy calls
on it last last fall i bet i don't i don't play options man i beg i begged you i begged you
you didn't you went i all right i understand yeah um and now it's starting to become a stock. And I remember, Matt, I was saying this when Hood was trading at like 20 bucks that now
there is a clear trade to be made with Hood relative to MSTR.
And it's no disrespect to Michael Saylor or anything like that.
But I just have a really, really hard time seeing people in my generation, with it being Gen Z, wanting to allocate their money to an individual that blew up and had his company be the biggest mess out of the dot-com boom and get sued for the largest amount of any publicly traded company.
sued for the largest amount of any publicly traded company. And you compare that to a founder and CEO
that is actually willing to understand tech markets. Because anytime you bring up all coins
to Michael Saylor, he freaks out, he tweaks and starts saying there's no second best.
And I understand the meme, but if you actually want to be positioned in a product that facilitates needs for every single capital market, that would be Robinhood.
That would be Robinhood.
And it's up like 500% since then.
And I think it's up well over 100% against MicroStrategy since that time as well.
And those are my thoughts on that, man.
It reminds me a lot of the gold bugs.
That's why I don't really go into those spaces.
And I agree with Mike about meeting some of these people in person.
It's really weird.
It's like something out of a Boondocks episode or an episode of Seinfeld.
You ever see Seinfeld seinfeld man it's like one
of the worst shows on the planet um but didn't age well but actually but uh going to uh something
mike said earlier i think gold is a good um uh is it is a good uh uh i, chart to look at from 2002 to 2012.
Go look at when gold finally got its spot ETFs.
GLD was the first one, I believe, in 2002.
I think that could be a nice future pattern for Bitcoin,
where gold, too, had its boom and bust its peaks and valleys its massive
bear markets and drawdowns but from 2002 when it got its first uh gold etf it was on a unrelenting
unrelenting bull market for a decade and actually if you go back in the space face an image for people. And not only is it a good comparison, because back then in 2002, gold was approximately the same market cap as Bitcoin.
They were both right around $2 trillion.
And then what did you see from 2002 to 2012?
Gold basically did a 5x straight through the great financial crisis, I might add.
straight through the great financial crisis, I might add.
Yes, it did have a 33%, 35% sell-off in 2008,
along with everything else,
but it ripped right back to all-time highs in 2009
and was flirting with a breakout
while NASDAQ and S&P 500 couldn't get off the mat.
So I think that could be easily what happens to Bitcoin.
So I think that could be easily what happens to Bitcoin.
It's never been easy to get exposure to Bitcoin.
That's what's different now compared to past cycles.
Whether you want to keep all your money and pump it in through BlackRock ETF,
or maybe you're a Fidelity fan, or you're Bitwise, or you prefer Robinhood,
but there's just been so many new easy avenues to get exposure into Bitcoin, which keeps that
money sticky, and not to mention helps new flows get in. So I'm all in favor of maybe we're putting an end to the 80%, 75%, 69% drawdown bear markets in Bitcoin.
Of course, Bitcoin is not immune from bear markets, but I would love if it turns more into a long-term stair step similar to gold.
a long-term stair step similar to gold.
Hey, Donnie, is there anything else
that you want to touch upon, man, by any chance?
No, man, I think I covered everything at the start.
If any of these late viewers or late listeners
joined and missed it, I really urge you to go back
and just listen to it.
Pretty much covered everything crypto-related
and kind of the macro playbook that I can see.
I think there was a lot of alpha spilled in there.
And yeah, enjoy this run
because it's definitely happening.
And all the cycle top callers
and all that kind of stuff,
looking one to two months out,
they just have no viewpoint
of kind of where everything is headed.
It's more of like a technical
sort of delusion at this point but yeah enjoy
enjoy this ride i think it's gonna be good awesome man yeah i want to thank donnie matt mike and
everyone else who came up on here for today's show guys i'll be going live tomorrow on twitch
at the same time at 4 30 p.m est so if you guys open up the Spaces tab right up above on the Nest from my personal profile, I put up the link.
Go ahead and follow me on Twitch.
And of course, if you guys enjoyed the stream over the last two hours, we are Because Bitcoin.
We produce multiple shows for you guys here on Spaces throughout the week.
I go live here on the BB account usually between 4.20 to 4.45 p.m. EST.
So we discuss all things crypto,
TradFi, price action, narratives.
We add in some dubious speculation
to make the show entertaining.
So if you guys loved what you're hearing today,
if you guys enjoyed the conversation,
you guys were entertained,
you learned a few things from the panel and myself,
feel free to give us a follow feel free to uh follow my personal profile which is co-host
follow donnie's personal profile which is also co-host and also feel free to follow mike and matt
and once again guys feel free to check up the nest above for all things that we discussed on the
spaces including my charts donnie's charts i think uh matt might have put something up on the nest above for all things that we discussed on the spaces including my charts donnie's charts
i think uh matt might have put something up on the nest and of course guys for tomorrow's stream
all the information is up above on the nest as well i'll be going live with one of our guys
will's outlook he's one of uh our analysts here at because bitcoin so if you guys want to keep up
with what we do here on x feel free to give us a follow and follow everybody else. But we also have another show over on our YouTube channel called Market Check, where we go through all things technical analysis, charts, graphs, stuff like that. that is typically between 11 a.m est to 11 15 a.m est and that show is hosted by some of our
analysts typically in a roundtable fashion we alternate uh the guys that appear on the show
during that specific day but both shows guys both shows not only on youtube but here on x both of
those shows are usually for about an hour and a half, sometimes two hours or even three, depending on the day, depending on what's going on.
Like today, we've been streaming for close to two hours now.
So if you guys enjoyed the space, feel free to give us a follow.
Turn on bell notifications as we are one of the fastest pages on X that produces all sorts of news when it comes to crypto and trad fi price action memes and all that
good stuff and of course so you can be made aware of whatever it is that we go live so once again
if you guys missed anything on the spaces these spaces are recorded and when you watch these
spaces i highly encourage every single one of you to uh open up the spaces tab and check out the things that are posted up above our profile pictures.
Some people call it the nest.
Some people call it the jumbotron.
So feel free to skim through that.
But, guys, I will be going live once again tomorrow on my Twitch channel.
Feel free to check that out.
Of course, as far as the spaces here on Because Bitcoin, we'll be back on Monday as the spaces here not only on YouTube, but on X are only hosted Monday through Friday.
And thank you guys all so much, whether you're listening here live and the algorithm was gracious enough to come across your viewpoint or your regular listener.
I thank you all so very much for Or if you're listening to the recording,
hope you guys enjoyed today's stream.
I want to thank Donnie once again,
Matt once again,
and also Mike for coming up
and providing you guys
for a free cook session, man.
You'll only find this kind of banter here
because of Bitcoin.
But guys, that is it from me.
Thank you, thank you, thank you.
Thank you all so much for the engagement, for all the likes, reposts, comments or all that stuff, whether it's good or bad. I appreciate all the engagement, guys. So feel free to follow everybody who participated and we'll see you all on the next one. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
on the next one. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. What a wonderful stream. We talked all things
crypto. We talked stocks, TradFi. We talked about things that occurred at the bottom of the market.
So before I sign off here, I want to give all the glory and all the thanks to my Lord and Savior,
Jesus Christ, for allowing me another day of health to talk markets with you all.
I don't take any of this for granted, so I have to thank the big boss upstairs because without Christ, I am nothing.
And all good things happen through Christ.
Seek the kingdom of God first and everything under heaven will be added on to you.
so I want to wish you all a very very pleasant weekend and if you'd like to tune into a stream
So I want to wish you all a very, very pleasant weekend.
feel free to check out my Twitch stream tomorrow I'll be going live once again and this time I'll
be sharing charts it's kind of why I like Twitch I get to share charts you guys get to see our faces
and all that good stuff just something I got going on on the side for people um that might not have time
to tune into every live stream that we do on spaces or youtube so hope you guys enjoy that
thank you for all the support uh god bless each and every single one of your families i love you Later. Thank you. Iおやすみなさい。 Oh Welcome to the show.んん
ん Thank you. .
