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Market Talk- $ETH HITS 3800! Stocks hit ath!prepare for alt season!?
Recorded: July 21, 2025 Duration: 1:47:42Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. you Oh, my God. And the curse is pressed all day I'm a tear that sorrow
All eternity
I'm a tear that crave for sex
And deep in my sin flame
Rejection for the most
The same is break your back
All you fear
All you carry
All you fear Let's divide it all oh
this hey you you carry on Oh I'm ready, go! so
so Music Thank you. He's gone! He is the crown! He's down and broke, yeah!
Come on, when you down!
Open those up, hard to stumble
Keep the ground that heavy,
So more high, alone, not peace,
So more, while you're right!
Are you ready?
Are you caring?
Are you ready? When you're right, Oh Thanks. Guys, what is going on i hope you all had a fantastic weekend my oh my it has been a tremendous
couple of days in these markets especially with ethereum and once again eth btc something i've been hammering on this show over the last
couple of weeks now probably going on five weeks six weeks something like that and that thing is
just an absolute beast i will be sharing a chart here later on the show but i'll get more into that
as i make my opening statement as far as what i'm going to share here. But guys, we'll talk about equities for the opening statement as I usually do. We have ARK Invest hitting another local high earlier today.
It hit 79. And also, if you guys tuned in to Friday's show, if you guys tuned in to Friday's
show with Mike Alfred, we were talking about Galaxy Digital Stock, which tested its previous
cycle high. And personally speaking, if we're going to see this treasury narrative kick off, if we're
going to see these low cap tech stock companies start accumulating assets onto their balance
sheets, such as altcoins or anything relating to AI, then you probably want to bet on Michael Saylor proxies, where Saylor, he mostly just leverages
his company stock and dilutes his shares to accumulate more Bitcoin. And of course,
that story has played out tremendously. But we're now starting to see proxies similar to him with
these treasury companies. Also with Tom Lee and also Joe Lubin as well
with their respective companies and accumulating Ethereum.
And we also do have some bullish stuff coming up later on in the year, of course.
I do think at the next two FOMCs,
Powell is likely going to stop quantitative tightening.
I do believe FOMC is coming up here shortly.
And I do think with Powell only having a couple of months left in his term, I'd like to say
that he should speak dovishly.
But I mean, at this point, he's just politically driven.
politically driven. And there's just no reason for rates to be egregiously higher than where CPI
is right now. But nonetheless, I do believe from my personal standpoint, and also some very smart
people on this app, a lot smarter than me, I do believe that Powell is likely going to reverse
course from his more of a neutral stance whenever he speaks more towards a
dovish dovish stance with him cutting rates but more than likely stopping quantitative tightening
it's been a regime for over three years now and the fact of the matter is i think the fed has done
a tremendous job at stopping stopping inflation from going over 15 as it did a couple of decades ago when,
I believe it was President Carter, President Jimmy Carter, who was the president at that time
when Paul Volcker had to come in and destroy the economy. But nonetheless, guys, some tremendous
bullish stuff happening in the stock market. ARK a local high today a little bit after the opening bell same thing with galaxy digital uh same thing with coinbase
stock as well i think coinbase stock earlier today hit 436 and then the friday high was like 434 so
only two points higher but nonetheless a higher high regardless same Same thing with the IWM.
We hit somewhat of a higher high earlier today after the opening bell. But, of course, we all know how these risk assets like to behave before an FOMC event.
And we know what happens usually out of it.
And we've seen this trend occur over the last few years, really.
really. But one thing that is different during this season compared to last summer's is that
this season of the summer has been more of summer offense more than anything. If you've been
defensive with your capital, then truth be told, you've missed out on one of the greatest rallies
that the market has seen in a very long time. Not only in the stock market with high caps essentially V reversing, but in something that we haven't seen since, I would say, dare I say it, during 2020, early 2021 with these low cap stocks.
And of course, from what we've compared on this show, whenever low cap stocks start to outperform mega cap tech, that usually trickles down into the crypto market. And we see assets
like ETH BTC. We see assets like ETH USD. Well, not assets, but with ETH BTC, it's more of a pair.
But with ETH USD, it's one of the strongest rallies that we've seen since last cycle,
specifically out of the COVID crisis. I mean, ETH has essentially pulled out a near 200%
rally. And the last time ETH pulled out a 200% rally in this amount of time after such value
destruction across all markets was after COVID. And there's usually this weird misconception.
Whenever someone looks at the S&P or the Qs or the IWM, they think that the COVID crash was a singular event when it really wasn't.
If you pull out any asset, even Bitcoin, from late February all the way to mid-March, it was a slow crash.
And then you had that one day where they had to pull the plug and pull out the circuit breakers.
And it got so bad in the crypto market that Arthur Hayes had to pull out for the first time ever.
He had to turn off the exchange because every single person that had a long position was going to get liquidated.
And Bitcoin was, quite frankly, going to go to $1,000.
For those of you that were actually staring at the derivatives data, BTC would have traded at sub $1,000. For those of you that were actually staring at the derivatives data,
BTC would have traded at sub $1,000. That is how bad it was for those that were active in the
market at that time. And I remember I was on my lunch break and I was getting a chicken tender
sub from Publix. Those of you that have ever visited Florida, if you haven't visited
Publix and gotten yourself a PubSub, and I frankly question if something is wrong with you,
but nonetheless, I got myself a PubSub, and the combo that I usually like to get is multigrain,
because white bread, quite frankly, tastes like a bunch of mayonnaise. I can't stand white bread,
quite frankly, tastes like a bunch of mayonnaise. I can't stand white bread, to be honest.
But it was a chicken tender sub, buffalo chicken, and I had sriracha sauce on the side, okay?
I want you to hear this, ladies and gents. This is pure alpha for you, okay? You get a
multi-grain or whole wheat. Those are the only two options that you should get. If you want to get a good pub sub, get yourself some buffalo chicken tenders, all right?
Then put yourself some tomatoes,
get yourself a little bit of green onions or some scallions,
and then some mozzarella cheese, pepper jack cheese,
and perhaps some Colby Jack.
You toast it, and then after that you put
yourself some sriracha sauce on the side and that's your ultimate pub sub and
maybe some pepperoni as well so anyways that's the combo that I got and then all
of my coinbase alerts were going off through the roof all my derivatives data
were going off and it was a day to experience. And we experienced
that live on this space when the S&P was trading at $4,800. And myself and Donnie were arguing with
gold bugs. And we genuinely wanted to know how the S&P was currently retesting the old cycle all-time high, not at a bottom.
And it retested that trend line.
I think it was the 200-week moving average.
We were testing that, and that's exactly where we had bottomed in late 2022.
And we had all these arguments saying that Powell doesn't care about the stock market,
Trump is going to destroy the economy, he's going to induce a recession and all this stuff.
But from what we've seen over the past few years,
any time the S&P and the McNASDAQ are down over 20%,
within the quarter they basically start V-reversing.
Within the quarter, they basically start V reversing.
And myself and Donnie have been gaining some notoriety on our personal profiles for coining the term melt up.
We're specifically talking about the indices, and that's exactly what happened.
And now we're saying, hey, now that the indices have V reversed back to the high, it's time for crypto to catch some of the equity market glory.
So those are really my opening thoughts, guys. Those are my opening thoughts for the space.
And this summer has truly been insane. The opportunities have been tremendous.
And I just want to welcome up Donnie,os. I see Louie requested to speak.
I'd really like to have Michael Cantrell up on the space as well.
I think the last time that we had Cantrell up on the space, I think it was back in late March or something like that.
late March or something like that. I'm pretty sure it was that day that I was at Home Depot
because I was getting ready for a move. So Mr. Cantor, I'm going to go ahead and send you an
invite to speak, man. I'd love to get your thoughts on what's been going on in the market
lately. I know since you've been arriving here on the show over the last couple
of years, I've usually asked you about low cap tech stocks like the IWM and some of the things
that of course move while the IWM is outperforming. We have other companies from the previous cycle
like Roblox, also Melting Faith. And if you want to come on up, man, I'd love to get some of your thoughts.
But yeah, I sent you that speaker invite.
We also have Ragsy up here.
But I want to welcome you all back to the show.
I hope you all had a fantastic weekend.
Welcome back to Market Talk brought to you by Because Bitcoin.
We're going to go ahead and give you guys a nice show here.
And I made sure to get some of my favorite water over the weekend. I have been slacking on that.
But you guys know my favorite water of choice. It's Saratoga. Saratoga natural spring water none of that sparkling water stuff because quite frankly
i'm not even sure why sparkling water caught much of a trend uh when it really just tastes like
expired sprite as a matter of fact i'd rather drink a mcdonald's sprite than uh than sparkling
water if you ever if you guys have ever had if you guys have ever had a sprite from
mcdonald's you know when you were a kid and you go to mcdonald's and you just hog up the soda
machine and you have some sprite and then your tongue gets burned but either way guys we're
going to go ahead and cook for you guys over the next 45 minutes to an hour with all the awesome
people here up on the stage so guys if you all can go ahead and do
me a nice favor and share some love to the space the best way you guys can do that is by clicking
the spaces tab and once you guys do that once you guys do that and open up the spaces tab and see
all of our cool profile pictures and all that good stuff you'll see a little link
above that says x.com slash i slash spaces once you guys do that smash up the like button if
you're excited to see all this price action smash up the like button If you're a market enjoyer, whether it's equities or crypto, smash up the like button.
Hit up that repost, that retweet button, as it does a number of things.
Helps out with the algorithm.
Helps bring more eyes and ears to the show.
Helps bring more awareness of the brand.
And I want to personally thank you all so very much for tuning into the show so regularly you guys know that here on x or even on youtube everyone has their own stream
everyone has their own brand everyone is trying to push themselves out into the algorithm but you
guys despite all the dilution and and saturation for content you guys decide to tune into this show
whether it's here live or whether it's
It's well whether through it's the recording. Wow. I'm really stuttering here, man
I need to work on that. I'm really trying my best here with that guys
But I want to thank you all so much for that and lately to be honest the engagement has been
Off the roof. We've been getting replays of over 5,000 some over 10,000
I think the last space we had we had over a thousand people and the spaces before that on wednesday with myself and matt
uh had over 600 live listeners and usually when the market ramps up everyone wants to start
streaming again and all that stuff but i want to go ahead guys before I start passing the mic here to these lovely people I want to go ahead and share up a chart that I
just posted on my personal profile which hopefully induces some excitement for all of you altcoin
enthusiasts so I've gone ahead and shared a link up top on the nest. Just click the
spaces tab. And as I said before, right above our profile pictures throughout the space, you'll be
seeing some of our posts. I know Donnie likes to share some of his stuff and some of our other
guests as well. But what I shared up on top on the nest was ETH Bc on the weekly and uh this is a macro chart basically the entire
price history of uh of ethereum relative to its bitcoin valuation which is the bitfinex chart
and you'll see once you click the chart up above we had a weekly close for the first time in years above the 50 week. And that, my friends, is huge.
We have been in a downtrend for almost two and a half years below the 50 week for over two years,
and we had a weekly close above. And of course, you'll see all the nice arrows and all that stuff.
The 50 week has been resistant since then.
We peaked there at Q1 of 24 and also in Q2, which, I mean, on the ETH Bitcoin pair, that's really when that huge, huge, huge next leg in the ETH BTC bear market had begun.
And now that we're above the 50-week, that is bullish momentum, ladies and gents.
And if you look below on the MACD, we hit five-year lows on the MACD.
And now we're curling up.
And if you zoom in on the MACD, you'll see that even though we are trading near the same
prices as when the MACD almost flipped positive, we're still in the negative.
There is a lot more juice to this thing.
And I'll just go on record to say I think ETH BTC has a high likelihood of making an all-time high, which right now it's at 0.15.
I know that sounds shocking because I was such a huge ETH bear during that downtrend,
and rightfully so, by the way, rightfully so.
And I hope I saved everyone a ton of money through that.
It's easy to be bullish and just say I'm bullish, bullish, bullish, bullish, bullish,
bullish, bullish, bullish, bullish, but it does give some comfort to follow people that
help you with avoiding drawdown, which very few minimal people do in this app because
that's what gets engagement, just bullish, bullish, bullish, bullish. But in reality, people in this app, they want to practice risk management and protect their
capital after they've made it.
But nonetheless, guys, I've gone up ahead.
Check out the chart.
Check out the post.
Give it some love if you'd like.
And honestly, I think we start seeing on-chain uh prosper i think eth dominance probably takes one
more leg up to about 14 15 while the rest of the alt market uh starts to catch up and of course
if you guys look at the chart i uh use gpt to generate an image of myself and donnie
it says uh tune in today at 4 30 p.. Welcome back to the stream. And in the background,
uh, you'll see Goku, Naruto in the background. You'll see Mario and Luigi at the bottom left.
You'll see Pepe at the bottom right. So thank God for AI. You can make cool stuff with AI. Now
you can make nice graphics and hopefully some videos. Hopefully some videos. I have been messing around with some products.
But unfortunately, they're not as high quality as X makes the same out to be.
But nonetheless, let's go ahead and get some thoughts from Donnie first, as I usually start off these shows.
But Donnie, are you checking out the chart
up above man you see all those bullish divergences bro you see that bullish divergence on the macd
man all the arrows all the signs and everything man people um they're gonna be shocked man and
i'm sure eth btc outperformance makes everyone here uh an enjoyer of these markets now they're going to see their things on eth go
up on base go up on abstract and and by the way shout out to you guys that have been following me
um either on my personal or sometimes on these streams that i've mentioned pengu
that thing is um ripping face and i i still think you're going to see a lot of assets in this market that trade at egregious levels, but don't really have as much virality as others.
And I'm not sure what the reason for that is.
Same thing with SPX 6900.
I am not seeing that as much on my timeline as I did last year.
It's really just Murad and his reply, guys.
But I'm bullish on Murad.
I'm bullish on Pudgy Penguins.
And talking about Pudgy Penguins, NFTs caught a bid for the first time since Q4 of 2023.
And for whatever reason, you have a lot of people that log on here every day to participate in a niche
community that crypto is right now. And they want to call top signals because NFTs are pumping,
because a sector in this market that only has a valuation of $5 billion caught a double-digit pump, and they want to say that that's bearish.
And truth be told, I'm not sure why NFTs pumping would be bearish,
when the fact of the matter is we're not even close to the euphoria
that we saw last cycle, not even from a price action perspective.
Even from a price action perspective, I've been sharing these charts with you guys,
I've been sharing these charts with you guys,
overlaying the MACD with ETH BTC, ETH USD, BTC USD, and we are still a ways away, especially
with others, whether it's others USD or others BTC.
When it comes to price action, when it comes to price acceleration and velocity, we're
not anywhere near last cycle's buying
pressure.
Even though we are trading at a market cap of over $4 trillion, a lot of that money is
coming from bigger institutions and not so much retail, which I do think is probably
going to change after quantitative tightening
ends and rates become lower and people are able to borrow capital at a cheaper rate.
And of course, when people have access capital, they can borrow at a cheaper rate.
They can speculate on markets, which for us would be great since we love these markets uh a lot but let's go
ahead and uh chat markets man but donnie what's going on bro welcome back to the show i hope your
weekend was fantastic it's gonna be uh an amazing cook sesh man so donnie let me first ask you bro
what do you think of my what do you think of my chart dude
you gotta you gotta you gotta give me give me some confidence points man i'm getting i'm getting
worried that none of my charts are gonna get engagement bro uh i'm doing good i'm trying to
get like you hey it doesn't happen overnight bro but you're on the right track. Yeah, no, this chart's good.
It's the chart we've been waiting for to flip market structure to bullish,
which has actually happened, crossing that 0.03.
Now, of course, we've just gotten above.
ETH has had significantly impressive performance to the upside.
So you can warrant a bit of a slowdown
at some point soon, right?
And that's why I've got a bunch of charts to share.
I think I already shared it up in the NIST.
My NIST never works, so I can actually never see it.
So just let me know if I actually...
Yeah, we can see it.
We can see it, man.
Yeah, so we've had a uh couple of weeks in the market um
you know towards the positive side btc cleaning up a bunch of uh liquidity above that was
basically uh resting you know below about 110 and then we had the world war iii shake out and
all that stuff um we had a very clean technical setup for a breakout. We're also just
following the gold fractal. We tend to see BTC follow gold's price action depending on where
that's headed. We had the DXY nuke that we were still yet to price in, global liquidity increasing
up into the right, and stocks started to catch up to BTC after leading that rally from
the bottom. And then we had solo stocks like Coinbase start absolutely ripping off the lows
to where we're kind of waiting for crypto to catch up. And basically, it was just that World
War III event that was really slowing things down in the crypto market uh but all the data was pointing you know to go higher from that point and we got the breakout now it's a very
similar setup to that and i keep sharing this chart because it just keeps playing out but if you go on
those four charts that i shared on the second one which is just btc now on a lower time frame on the
two hour chart uh compared to the uh world World War III shakeout range that we had,
it's very similar technically. And you do still have a bunch of liquidity below that you don't
need to clean it up. We have quite a strong bullish bias with everything aligned that we
discussed on Friday's stream. But it's quite natural for price to go and tag these areas before continuing higher.
So don't be scared if you see WIX towards 113, 112, or even just a retest of that breakout, which was actually around 112.
It's pretty normal.
And we do have a bunch of volatility.
Thao is speaking tomorrow.
You can feel the narrative building around him, leaving as Fed chair and all
that stuff. There's a lot of uncertainty around that if it's going to be bullish or bearish or
bearish first and then extremely bullish after. No one really knows. But that can cause just a
little bit of selling pressure and stuff. I don't know if he's going to talk about it tomorrow,
but the uncertainty still lies within the market.
But the technical setup that we have right now, to me, this is, again, another setup to break out even higher.
And when we're looking at some of these leading indicators like gold,
which we're still yet to fulfill the entire rally that gold had,
it's only been about, I think, 75% of the amount of time
that it took from gold to get out of that bottoming
zone to the top that it had. So BTC has still got a ways to go. And we know BTC is much smaller in
market cap, it tends to move more explosively when choosing a direction up or down. And we did have
a very nice impulse to about 123. But again, there was lots of shorts piling in at that 120 zone because it does seem to
be a key level for the upside for where everyone does realize that, oh, wow, we're actually
breaking out of that prior range that we had from 110, the inauguration highs to the 74k
lows.
And this thing's likely going to trend much higher towards my targets of 138 to 182.
Just depends, right?
There's a bunch of catalysts that are always lurking in the background when conditions
are optimal that can aid price to the upside, just like how we saw it aid price to the downside
when they were slapping on all of the tariff noise during the big correction that we had.
So the one interesting thing that I'm seeing is obviously this insane downward pressure on the dollar.
Now literally since the top,
which we called on the dollar, the exact top,
the whole way down,
you've had probably some of the craziest downward pressure
on the dollar, at least in recent history.
When comparing this to the 2017 setup,
it's in the same direction. You had this
rally going into the inauguration, but the drop was just being so aggressive to the downside.
And subsequently, you've seen gold also have basically a blow off top to that 3.5k level,
but you're seeing another reaccumulation, which you saw prior to the election rally
that we had in the crypto market.
So gold rallied first, went through a reaccumulation phase, about a 9% correction, and BTC rallied like 65%.
Then you had gold lead again as the downwards pressure on the dollar just accelerated like crazy after the rally.
and yeah we're basically just repeating that same thing now and if you look at that DXY and
And yeah, we're basically just repeating that same thing now.
Global M2 chart again Global M2 chart is more of a directional indicator you know you can use gold
as the actual proxy of if liquidity is increasing or decreasing at this point but if I can't zoom
in on this chart this is a daily chart if I were to zoom in on like an eight hour chart on the DXY
you're building another very strong liquidity trail below from that point that we
had the lowest point and now you're actually having uh you know a sell-off and looking like
you just want to choose straight through that uh liquidity once again which i've marked with
these red dollar signs you can see on the first little shoulder that we had when DXY fell below, I'd say, 105.
It's repeating that same thing.
And we're seeing a direct correlation on the gold chart.
Every time DXY seems to pull down, gold starts to rally.
So it's not a confirmed reaccumulation setup until it breaks out of this high.
But if this downwards pressure on the dollar persists, and there's a lot of catalysts that can keep pushing this thing lower, especially just how
badly the Trump admin wants to get rates down over the next, you know, six to 12 months or whatever.
I wouldn't be surprised to see this nuke on the dollar just continue, right? And that's going to
be, you know, positive for gold. We know gold leads BTC and we're still yet to fulfill the entire gold rally that it just had on the Bitcoin chart.
So I don't know, there's a lot of upwards pressure on risk assets and gold.
So I think the setup for continuation is just super strong here.
And other than some uncertainty around Powell, which you can argue can be pretty
massive, it seems like asset prices are going to continue trending higher for the rest of the year.
If we do get this breakout on gold and further downside on the dollar, that to me basically
solidifies that I think crypto is destined to go into 2026 for upside.
And you can likely increase your targets on BTC because depending on how low this dollar trend actually goes,
gold can go pretty high off the back of that.
It could go upwards of like 3.84K.
And we still haven't even had the,
I think I've got the chart here somewhere.
We haven't had the divergence in price between gold and BTC yet, which kind of marks the top for Bitcoin or has marked the top basically every single cycle that we've had.
BTC. And then when we're around that super euphoric cycle top area, you tend to have a massive
divergence between BTC and gold. And when you look at the BTC to gold chart, which is just Bitcoin
against gold, you tend to have significant outperformance during that period. And you
could say that you're getting rotations out of basically an overheated gold, and it's out of
juice, and it's going further out on the risk curve or just trying to benefit off of that super optimal risk on environment.
So we still get to see that.
And that's kind of like the main indicator for me if you're looking for a top.
Every other cycle we've just been gaining and gaining against gold.
And I think this time it won't be any different.
BTC is destined to catch up to gold over time, in my opinion. And the setup for this cycle is just extremely insane
with how hard the US government is pushing it and alongside BlackRock marketing this hedge
to the whole world. So it's obviously working. You're having a lot of TradFi jump in on this
thing. And the conditions, the optimal conditions
are still yet to materialize in the market.
So if gold goes higher,
and then we do end up having this divergence,
I think BTC is just easily destined to cross 200K,
if not much higher than that.
But obviously, you know, step by step,
day by day, week by week,
assess the price action and how that shapes up but yeah um not
many people are projecting super high targets for btc but if this all materializes then i think it's
quite likely and it's looking good guys go ahead and engage with all the posts up above on the nest
during the spaces everyone up here including myself we typically uh touch upon
topics and um to back up what we speak about we usually post charts and articles and all that
kind of stuff so go ahead and uh show all the posts some love but uh donny man same thing with
the euro btc i think that one is also uh screaming some, man. Maybe a couple of days more of accumulation on Bitcoin while ETH kind of steals the spotlight.
And perhaps we have a little bounce on BTC dominance as BTC gets towards that lower end target that you mentioned, 132, 130, something like that.
Pensions, 132, 130, something like that.
And I'm not really sure what would spook the market outside of tariffs.
And I understand that whole tariff situation got pushed back to the 8th or 9th of next month.
Yeah.
Yeah.
The only thing that could really, I guess, shake up the market is if the US and China deals
basically start to not revert, but they really start clashing again.
I guess that would put a lot of pressure on the markets, but I just don't see that happening.
Well, at least I don't think it's a super likely outcome.
And again, all of the leading data or leading indicators and kind of the macro
playbook that we've discussed, it just seems like it's just too much of a
bullish setup for things to just start heading into a bear market.
Like the way they're deregulating the banking sector, how hard they're wanting to push
this whole stablecoin narrative.
Again, that's a proxy for them to fund their debt.
They're saying it out in the open.
They're wanting to boom that industry into the trillions.
Obviously, it's not going to happen in six months
to head into the trillions for stablecoins,
but the trajectory remains the same.
So I know there's all these hurdles in the way
or hurdles of uncertainty,
but I think what's not priced in
is when all of that smooths out
and markets don't have this uncertainty weighing them down.
And it's also backed by a shit ton of liquidity.
Whether that's rates coming down
or more deregulation of the banks,
it's all risk asset positive.
So as we keep incrementally getting over these hurdles, you're just going to have more and
more people piling into this market and going further out on the risk curve.
Again, we still haven't had that divergence between gold and BTC, which I think is imminent
for a cycle wrap up.
So we'll see.
we'll see. We'll see. I think it's super bullish. And I actually think this next leg on BTC,
We'll see.
I think it's super bullish.
whether it happens now or in August, like maybe the first week of August,
I think that's going to really ignite the crypto market because it's already doing super well.
You're seeing Bitcoin dominance actually break structure to the downside for the first time in
almost actually three years and uh eth is obviously
you know catching a major bid but you're starting to see like sole btc also start to gain some
strength uh over the last week so yeah a lot of uh a lot of movement in the old coin market which
only means one thing is that people are uh really wanting to pivot to risk right if you have eth
btc flipping which i think i've shared a chart a number of times,
I can't find it right now,
it was just ETH BTC over DXY.
We've had a monster of a dollar since the COVID cycle,
which has just led to a perpetual downtrend on ETH BTC.
And the moment DXY lost the key level of 100
and started spending time down there
and you had a massive uptick in global liquidity, ETHPTC bottomed literally a week later. So I don't think that's by coincidence.
ETHPTC is basically the risk barometer of crypto, which crypto is already far out on the risk curve
against traditional assets and things like that. So if we have more downwards pressure on the
dollar and all of these other liquidity positive things,
then I just don't see how we don't go to some crazy high targets this cycle and likely rally for longer. Donnie, and also if BTC simply catches up to M2, that would take us to like 140.
And it seems now more than ever, the consensus now is everything wraps up in three to six months
it's always three to six months man uh it's always in three to six months get ready in the next three
to six months and then a huge huge huge crash happens that's probably not likely man uh and i
remember being on that side of the trade going into the inauguration.
I thought to myself, all right, this is going to be massive.
Trump is going to get in and the market's going to do tremendously well.
And then Melania token came out after the Trump token.
And things going into February started to look pretty damn shitty.
Very shitty, actually.
And I think it's probably going to be the inverse of that, if I'm being honest, Donnie.
Like, everyone thinks that Q4 is going to be some massive thing where everything gets started, but everything is getting started now.
We're seeing it happen now so what we've seen
donnie is anytime we have these massive expansion off of lows or into new highs the market likes to
have these quick violent moves over a few weeks and then it just consolidates for a few months so
what if q4 is just a repeat of what we saw in the crypto market from May to July?
From mid-May to early July, we basically did a whole lot of nothing except consolidate between 98 to 105K for the most part.
And it was really just small rotations here and there for altcoins.
But just to add some context, Donnie, I'm not really trying to suggest that altcoins are going to add some context donnie i i don't really i'm not really trying to suggest that
altcoins are going to stagnate as a matter of fact i actually think majors consolidate throughout q4
while some of these might some of these mid cap low cap and micro cap altcoins in the market
start to catch up to majors in an aggressive way yeah actually that brings me to another point we
discussed this on friday uh before this range started really playing out on btc locally and
i basically just said watch for every local bounce on btc how hard if btc and eth is going to rally
uh you know during this range and literally every single local bounce you got on btc you saw what
happened to eth and eth btc right that's a very zoomed in low timeframe chart. And this chart that I just
shared, which is just basically the Bitcoin over gold fractal. Again, Bitcoin moves very aggressively
in either side as it's way smaller in market cap compared to gold. Gold trades quite cleanly off
global liquidity going higher or lower.
What this basically shows you is what I just explained on that super low time frame of,
wow, people might be rotating out of BTC into ETH because you're seeing massive price appreciation on ETH, higher highs continuously, even though BTC is putting in lower highs and kind of just chopping.
This is a higher time frame version of that. If we're following this gold fractal,
you know,
as close to it as possible, right?
It's not identical, but the direction is the same.
And the timing is also very similar.
So if we're trailing this,
you know, kind of one-to-one,
that puts us around that mid-August point,
which gold has been forming a range
for the last three months, right?
If BTC fulfills something similar and finds its top,
again, this is a deep price discovery high
that BTC could be headed towards,
let's say, in that 138 to 182 range.
I don't know how high.
We'll see and find out.
But that's a deep price discovery area where speculation does run pretty high, right? So if you start forming a range and you
start having these bounces within that range, that's typically where you get those old season
conditions because you're so deep into price discovery. Speculation is at all time highs
and coins are pumping because people are literally rotating out of BTC down into the risk curve and just trading this environment while it remains hot.
So if we get something like this,
that basically leaves those optimal conditions
out on the table for a number of months.
This is quite similar to that 74K range in 2023 that we had,
or 2023 going into 2024,
where you saw for the first half of that range, you had basically that meme coin bubble that we had, or 2023 going into 2024, where you saw for like the first half of that range,
you had basically that meme coin bubble that we had.
And even then we didn't have a massive rollover
in Bitcoin dominance.
So these conditions are even more optimal than that,
way deeper into price discovery,
aka the market will be way more inflated than it was then.
And you're having these alt season conditions materialize,
I think that's where you could potentially have
the crazy part of the alt season.
But we'll see how it plays out.
But yeah, gold's been ranging for such a long time
that I think if we're following this,
it's likely BTC does the same thing,
but alts have so much catching up to do
and then you're having a rollover of Bitcoin dominance and ETH BTC upticking like crazy. It can get pretty insane.
Those are the best conditions we've had for the last three years, basically, since the 2021
bull market peak. So that's pretty exciting. You could literally, you know, be in that environment
for like two to three months,
which is a lot of time to be uptrending
in the altcoin market.
That's what I'm talking about, man.
That is what I'm talking about.
Kanshu, I sent you another invite
in case the space has dropped you off.
I just sent another speaker invite but uh let's get some thoughts from uh from paulos paulos what's going on man what are you thinking about uh the conversation that we're having here brother
welcome back welcome back what's up guys good to get to chat, Wabi and Donnie and the rest of the crew.
Yeah, it's an interesting time.
Something I've been thinking about over the last few days is, you know,
it's very common when a new wave kicks off, like we've been seeing over the last couple weeks like where it tends to
trickle through different asset classes and a lot of people make the mistake of like trying to uh
just over rotate because their assets not moving right now and usually you're just like constantly
essentially like selling the bottom of some asset try to chase some asset that's like up 30, 50, 100 plus percent over the last few days.
game plan and try to understand where liquidity is moving and like have a portfolio that kind of
covers your bases without having to like over rotate constantly you know holding quality assets
over the long run is always going to be um less stressful and you're going to compound
more gains over time versus um just trying to chase the rabbit um you know every day there's
like a new thing that pops up um you know and it's now it's like kind of almost harder because
you've got like you know before there was only like one two or three equity assets that were like connected to crypto
but now you're having so many new ones pop up so like before you you were on chain and you
were just having to like swap money from like one uh uh you know like one chain to the other
to try to um catch plays but now like you've got equities that's like more and more quality assets that are being
deployed.
And then on chain, I think obviously still hasn't fully caught up.
I'd say we're still in that first phase right now where like it starts with the majors um and then slowly that wealth effect
gets created where people feel more and more confident to move down the stack and take more
risks so um yeah i think like i'm just reading like people's comments over the last few days like especially people who are in crypto
um that are more on ct and stuff like they can be looking at certain assets right now whether
it's dino coins that are just like ripping face um and they feel like they're missing out so they're
trying to kind of catch it but i do think we just have to be patient. And like every single time, it will trickle to the most speculative side.
I can just imagine a couple weeks down the line, especially if we do get closer to these rate cuts
and we get into kind of like that fall season where things
tend to really really heat up um but yeah that's that's essentially my my like high level take on
market right now um and i feel like we're getting into uh the time period where you almost feel like you can't,
it gets hard to like disconnect from this stuff.
So I do also highly recommend that you guys, everyone kind of takes care of themselves.
And it's very easy to get carried away and miss sleep and things like that where
you can also tend to make some poor decision-making in terms of how you're
allocating your portfolio No apologies for that for that for that silence guys I kept trying to click on mute but it wouldn't
let me for whatever reason I really hope spaces aren't bugging out right now, man. I'm really hoping not, man.
But guys, I think you'll feel pretty excited with this next post.
I've gone ahead and shared up on the nest.
For those of you that missed out on my Saturday stream,
I did a Twitch stream with Max, and we've touched upon a couple of things.
So what I've done is uh i put
something up on the nest in relation to meme coin dominance and i think memes are probably going to
take a huge leg up here man um i was skeptical earlier in the year in q1 if memes were ever
going to come back in a big way but uh seeing what's going on with bonk playing with us a few things going on in that
ecosystem and also positioning myself on spx 6900 at 85 cents and then seeing that actually go into
price discovery and mirada going viral on tiktok max uh brought up meme coin dominance and uh i did
some charting on that after the stream so if you you want to see more in depth on what me and Max discussed, feel free to check up the chart up above.
And then below that post, you'll find a link to the Twitch channel.
But basically, this is all the meme coins put together in market cap.
in market cap is just just a simple explanation and uh currently right now we are about we are
It's just a simple explanation.
we did actually put a uh put a weekly close above those highs that we set earlier in the year in q2
and there's pretty much no resistance up until the yearly open so we'd gap up by about 50 from here and of course that would
entail an exuberant amount of gains for anyone that holds meme coins and from what we've seen
in the cycle whenever meme coins actually do break into price discovery everything essentially has
a two to four week uh time frame where basically tops out. Anytime Pepe has gone into
price discovery and breaks its old all time high, the market goes up only for about two to four
weeks, as we saw back in November of last year when Pepe went into price discovery. And then the
market basically consolidates, chops, and then decides what trend to go in, which is usually down.
consolidates, chops, and then decides what trend to go in, which is usually down.
In June of last year, when we broke that all-time high that we set on Pepe in March of 24,
Pepe made an all-time high.
We started to chop, and then we capitulated.
And the same thing occurred in November of last year.
All-time high, price discovery, market topped in mid-December.
We chopped around for a little bit.
Made one more high. It doesn't really count. That was more of a wick during Inauguration Day.
Then the market went to kingdom come. So maybe it happens again, man. But if meme coins actually do
make an all-time high, which looking at the chart certainly does the thing, it certainly seems that
that is likely, especially with the fed going back to neutral then
i mean you're you're gonna have easy mode you're gonna have easy mode but with easy mode comes at
a cost anytime easy mode actually occurs it's usually rapid and very quickly but um and let's
uh let's go ahead and see uh what louis say, man. Oh, yeah, Paulos.
And by the way, man, Pasternak has to fix that flywheel.
Yeah, yeah.
I'm getting so frustrated with it.
It was a good trade.
It was a good trade, man.
But the thing with making a good trade is like you make a good trade,
you exit, and then you put like a moon bag there.
And you think to yourself, man, dude,
this moon bag could be placed somewhere else.
It could be placed somewhere else.
But I've seen these long consolidations after an asset goes up only in a straight line, corrects like 70%.
I mean, Pepe did the same thing.
Mog did the same thing.
SPX did the same thing.
Even AI, when it was trending, did the same thing. Mog did the same thing. SPX did the same thing. Even AI, when it was trending, did the same thing.
Remember AI60Z and virtuals when it had that nasty correction?
They go through these consolidation phases, usually a month or two,
and then they put in a monster leg from those lows.
We're seeing Seoul right now, by the way, chatting.
We're seeing Sol right now, by the way, chatting.
Sol chatted up to almost 200.
Seoul chatted up to almost 200.
And if we're going to have some Seoul outperformance here, even locally,
maybe we can see Seoul back at 215, 220,
which over the last 18 months has been indicative of things on Chain on Seoul
perking back up again.
I think to myself, we need something more than just like the usual flavor of the week or just memes or we sometimes have those days where like fundamental coins pop off on Sol.
Like we saw Drift and a few others doing quite well on Sol like DeFi coins in Q3 of last year.
Rapper was another one as well.
And we're recently seeing things like gp
melt face there's probably another one that uh that i've missed out on but
soul's a bit tricky right now man as far as on chain goes outside of like bonk fun
yeah i agree um i i won't touch on it too much there because we've obviously uh chatted quite
a bit about over the last couple of ones but just to give you I an update on I guess where my head's at is uh
it's been a very painful trade for me as well I mean I've been holding um you know launch coin
for a while now and it's just uh it's it's just been crazy volatility both ways um and obviously
people are getting kind of fed up and this whole flywheel thing.
One thing interesting that came up today,
they gave a 1 million grant to this project called Orgo,
which is absolutely sending right now as we speak.
Basically, the founder is part of some group called The Residency, and the advisor is Sam Altman.
It's an AI project, and I am kind of curious what's happening here because it's kind of gaining a lot more momentum than I thought it would.
They do need a runner like i feel like if they just get a runner that you know goes 50
to 100 mil it could potentially revive the ecosystem and hopefully they can get the flywheel
going but i've also been losing patience obviously um as well i'm i'm a little bit worried even that if this doesn't work out like this icm meta for soul
like i don't really obviously you know you you'll you'll still have memes but we always speak about
like it's important to also have some fundamental projects running as well um so yeah i'm curious to see how it's all gonna play out um it's it's pretty rough even even pump
after their ico it's not looking great so it's it's kind of a a bit of a weird time on solana
right now i feel at least we have pangu running right it combines um practically every narrative that the cycle has had it's rwas it's uh chain of scrap
chain abstraction uh memes consumer goods consumer apps all in um all in one uh all in one project
so and the chart looks really good man the chart looks really good, man. The chart looks really good. Yeah, I agree. They look insanely good, man.
I remember bringing it up on the space and comparing it to Sane, Sui.
Donnie, have you finally taken a look at Pengu, brother?
I've been bothering you about this one on spaces over the last few weeks.
I looked at it.
But just when something this high cap rallies this much i just don't like to chase the
price no matter how high you know the potential is like 2.3 billion or whatever the earliest
like the most appealing point that i would have gotten is probably you know 1 billion or less
personally so how would you compare it to something like hype?
And you'll remember, man, when hype bottomed out at single digits at $9,
I was extremely loud about it.
And there were many people that were kind of saying the same thing.
It's too high of a market cap.
They might not have as much leg room to go.
But if we're taking a look at eth and how eth is running and if eth dominance is going to go up and pengu has continued to
show strength what happens to this asset once the other large caps start to move when you start to
see suey start to move what does that mean for pengu and i think it could honestly shock a lot
of people man before the mid caps and the
low caps start moving here brother we saw what hype did hype went from what was it what was it
guys like three bill um to about yeah yeah two three bill in like in like five weeks six weeks
something like that and yeah man i i think this one can can still shock people brother
i'm not gonna lie compared to the other high cap assets yeah no i'm not saying it can't go higher
it's just just me personally like that's just not how i'll enter a trade i'd rather just wait
take something else and hold what i'm holding i'm not i'm not doubting it can go much higher
like it could literally go to $25 billion, for example.
It's still a highly liquid 10x.
Me personally, I wouldn't enter it unless I had a clean entry on the chart or something instead of Chase.
So, Don, if we talk locally, what would be some areas, like if someone's in that position, they're like,
dang, I really like Pudgy Penguins.
I really like the chart.
I just dig it.
What would be some areas of interest to enter on a pullback,
any technical level, if you're seeing the chart right now?
Yeah, you just had one right now, which would have been just under $2 billion,
but you just had the impulse.
So now you're literally just at an impulsive point on the chart.
So either you chase this or you wait to
try get back in around that two billion level so or less so it's it's it's buy high and sell higher
season it could be for this token buy high and buy buy high and sell higher that's when you know things uh are about uh are about to
get hot but speaking of sui donnie that chart has is honestly shocked myself um on how it's
catched up like it zoomed back to uh to range highs with a snap of a finger man and there's
nothing to do there on chain like almost nothing yeah it's just the flow of liquidity bro if like
ether's doing well then all of these like1s that are new and speculative, they also
tend to do well and actually outperform because they're just smaller.
So I have no doubt SUI will just continue running higher as long as the market keeps
going higher.
But the good thing about these high cap tokens like Pingu and stuff, once they do actually
enter their high timeframe distributive structures,
that's when you get huge rotations.
Is this on ETH?
No, it's on Sol.
That's when you get huge rotations into the Sol ecosystem.
And then you get all the lower-cap stuff absolutely melting up.
So I wish for Pengu to just keep running,
because eventually that liquidity is going to go
into everything else i i think but i think pengu is multi-chain man uh is it yeah i claimed my
airdrop um on eth like i think i think it's multi-chain man but it's also on centralized
exchanges that's where i bought mine i I bought mine on just like a regular exchange.
So, yeah, they've done work.
They've done good work.
Yeah.
Let's get some thoughts from Louie.
Louie, what's up, man?
Welcome.
I saw you request.
Yo, yo.
What's going on, guys?
How are we doing?
Yeah, I mean, all great points, guys. Great, great conversation. Don't have too much to add,
right? I don't want to be repetitive here. I did just share a post in the nest. Pretty much my takeaway from last week.
Obviously, other than ETH just absolutely shredding to the upside,
you love to see it.
That weekly candle on ETH you got was just an absolute meat stick, man.
It's beautiful.
But, you know, there's a lot of noise, right?
When things are bearish, there's a lot of noise. When things are bullish, there's a lot of noise, right? There, there, when things are bearish, there's a lot of noise and things are bullish, there's a lot of noise.
Um, the chart that I, I love to watch, um, and check in, check in with every,
every week or so, uh, is the total crypto market cap chart, uh, which honestly is
probably one of the most important charts, uh, in crypto, right?
Because it's the asset class as a whole depicted
on a chart, right? So what's important in my eyes, I know things are starting to heat up,
things are feeling frothy. Sure, right, we're going to get local pullbacks along the way.
But one thing I noted taking a look at that chart today,
what was the weekly close last week for total crypto market cap?
We closed the weekly, you know, in price discovery, right?
We had a confirmed weekly breakout candle for total crypto market cap last week,
for total crypto market cap last week,
closing at the highest price ever,
around $4 trillion or $3.94 trillion market cap
for the asset class as a whole.
And we closed at all-time highs in price discovery.
I think that's huge, right?
So like, although super locally for us,
we do this every day, we're in this every day, things feel frothy, especially compared to what we've been seeing over the last two years of crap price action.
I still think that we're just kind of getting started here for crypto.
crypto um this chart literally looks like the asset class is is entering price discovery and
entering expansion and is about to expand as an asset class and mature uh going into this next
cycle as we've historically seen it do every couple years um so i i think the weekly close
last week um at all-time highs can you know weekly confirmed breakout this isn't
like an hourly charge something like that it's like a weekly candle close breakout holds a lot
of weight right holds a lot of weight so what i'm looking at uh is you know obviously i've been
bullish a long time but this is confirmation that you know the the crypto asset class is ready to expand and grow and enter its next phase of expansion.
The weekly chart looks absolutely beautiful. RSI looking to break out into major overbought
levels. Not there yet, but starting to break that downtrend there. I have drawn on the RSI. I don't
really do too much of that, but it is pertinent to understand that that weekly RSI has been pretty much capped since beginning of 2024.
So significant breakout in RSI, significant breakout in price action.
And it really does look like the crypto asset class is going to expand and likely very quickly.
going to expand and likely very quickly.
You know, the next, I know while you're just making jokes, but like the next three to six
months, I believe are going to be a massive expansion into price discovery.
And you're going to start to see this trend that we've been pushing off the lows since
pretty much 2023, really start to accelerate, really start to uh you know enter you know get parabolic
get more vertical uh and enter into some sort of blow off top where i likely think it you know it
takes us to anywhere between seven to twelve trillion dollars market cap but the asset class
as a whole so i know things feel frothy i know it feels overheated because we're just been conditioned
to not have price action like we've seen over the last two weeks.
But when you look at this chart, I feel like this is telling the real story is that we're just now entering price discovery and expansion for crypto.
So I'm excited.
I'm comfy in my positions and pretty much just letting the market do the work for me.
Just sitting back and enjoying the ride for the next couple months.
All right, man.
Next six weeks is what I heard.
Not three to six months, three to six weeks.
Am I right on this, Donnie?
Is that what you heard from Louie?
Three to six?
Everyone is not expecting the next three to six weeks.
No pullbacks.
Pullbacks are lies.
They're nightmares.
They're a fugazi.
And truth be told, I actually had to call Homeland Security on somebody
because they said that ETH was going to zero and altcoins were going to zero.
I frankly think it's domestic terrorism to be bearish during this time in the market,
just as it was domestic terrorism to be bullish in Q1.
I think it's more pain to miss out on a pump or to have conservative targets for upside.
Everything is going to trillions, bro.
Market cap of $50 trillion, brother.
Not $10 trillion, $50 trillion.
But Donnie, three to six weeks is what you heard, right?
Yeah, three to six weeks.
Three to six weeks and what you heard, right? Yeah, three to six weeks.
Three to six weeks and ETH hits 10K.
What's your timeline for new all-time highs on ETH BTC?
Probably Q2 of next year.
That quick?
Whoa, whoa, whoa. Yeah, Q2.
Did you mean 52 week?
Oh, Matt.
No, Matt, Matt, Matt, Matt.
I'm sorry, man.
But my personal profile is up here as co-host.
And I'd really like, I challenge really anybody to scan my profile, put ETH BTC.
Not a single time have I called for ETH BTC to go crazy until my pin tweet.
Not once. to go crazy until my pin tweet not once and i think ebtc is going to go to all-time highs
when the fed goes to neutral and then to dovish i i genuinely think so i generally higher than the
2017 yeah yep okay okay let's go okay i i do i do and and the thing is it's at the right time.
Here's the deal.
Here's the deal.
Right now, you are literally
the meme of the guy going woo
for that tiny little
bounce off the bottom.
You are the meme.
I put it up
on the nest.
Let me get back to .5 first. No, no, no. No, I put it up on the nest. I put it up on the nest. Okay, let each BGC.
Ladies and gentlemen.
Let it get back to 0.5 first.
You're calling for new all-time high ever.
No, no.
Yes, yes.
It got above the three.
0.3, Bobby.
0.3.
No, no.
Hold on.
Hold on, Matt.
It's 0.032.
Oh, my bad.
I left off the thousand i apologize i looked up a thousand
look look when someone meets me and they say oh i'll tell you 5 11 i say no i'm actually six foot
that extra inch counts all right or maybe maybe or maybe six foot and a quarter six foot and half
if you're six foot you're six no no no no no no no no no if you're six foot you're six foot and a quarter six foot and half if you're six foot you're six no no no no no no no
no if you're six foot you're six foot if you're 5 11 and rounding up bro you can't
so so so look bro that's the thing with eath btc right eath btc right now is probably like
five three right it's like five yeah", 4'. And to get above to its
all-time high, that is a 7-footer.
That is a 7-footer,
right? And ETH
is going to go to 8''.
It's going to be the tallest guy that ever
lived.
Boy, I don't know. I think you can
make a real valid argument
for new all-time
high in USD by uh by let's let's get
you know let's get frisky let's say end of year you could you know what is that 5100 whatever it
is like and easily right end of year new eth all-time high but new eth btc all-time high bro okay okay what kind of timeline then all right but what kind
of timeline the the timeline i would say this so and i want to be constructive when i say this i
don't want to just like throw a target and not give like any explanation right so i did put
something um up on the nest which i'll uh i'll reshare again. So hold on, give me a sec. So I put it
up on the nest, right? And for anyone that's been listening to me over the last few years,
or has caught up to any of the charts that I share, everyone knows that I use my EMAs, right?
Or my moving averages. And the biggest thing to know about an asset that's
traded for about 10 years is the 200 weekly moving average, right? The 50, the 100, and the 200 week
moving average. And if you pull up the chart, again, for those that are listening to the show
right now, just open up the spaces tab. And above our profile pictures, you'll see a little square
called the nest. And then you'll see a little square called the nest.
And then you'll see my tweet. Just click on the tweet or the post, whatever you want to call it, and open up the chart and read the post. So I've got the 50, 100 and 200 week. Right.
And if you check out the 50 week, which is the green line, right, we have we downtrended off of
that line for over two years, roughly almost two and a half years.
And that has been resistance multiple times.
It was resistance during the Q1 rally.
It was resistance for the Q1 rally in 24 and also during the Q2 rally of last year where
ETH BTC started to really, really leg down.
And so for the first time in over two years,
you now have a weekly close above the 50 week. That's one. And then two, if you take a look at
the MACD, the MACD on ETH BTC, and I'm using the Bitfinex chart, by the way, which is the longest
data oracle that we have in this market for ETH BTC. You take a look at ETH BTC on the MACD, which I've overlaid below the weekly from Bitfinex,
you'll see that the lows that we hit on ETH BTC are almost as low as how they were in late 2018
when ETH went to $80.
And for anyone that was in the market at that time, ETH rallied from $80 to roughly $400 and change within six months, while Bitcoin was close to getting into price discovery at $14K and change.
bottomed out on ETH BTC on the weekly. It's a lot more constructive than the previous rallies that
we've had on ETH BTC over the last few years, where if you just zoom in on all the rejections
we've had from the 50-week moving average, it's usually just been make a new low and then pump
massively for a week or two, and then back down, or distribution and back down. Whether it's here,
week or two and then back down or distribution and back down whether it's here if you zoom out
it's been it's been very constructive and as i mentioned it looks very similar to btc usd
when it bottomed out at 15 15k 16k and you remember that massive cpi pump that we had
that took us to 2021 k do that's roughly and yeah and that's that's roughly give or take almost the
same structure that we had on ethbc getting what this is okay let me let me give some color for
well i'll i'll i'll finish i'll finish off okay i'll finish off here so one thing that i didn't
mention on this post because again it's really difficult to make a post that doesn't turn into an article.
But where I'm getting at as well is looking at the macro side of things.
If I'm seeing things like ARK Invest, confirming a bull market trend for the first time in over four years alongside the IWM,
which, guys, you can go ahead and click on my Pro on my personal profile that's here as co-host and
you check my pin tweet I go on a very long in-depth post about the IWM and how the bottom on ETH BTC
and also an IWM are really confluent with the COVID bottom and if I overlay what's going on
with the IWM and something like ARK Invest confirming bull market structures of higher lows and higher highs for the first time in years alongside the Fed taking out quantitative tightening, flipping neutral and cutting rates and also a new Fed share, then to me that screams that ETH BTC has a higher likelihood than not in going above the 200-week moving average, which by the
time that it does, it'll probably be closer to 0.04548, something like that, depending if ETH
wants to aggressively keep on moving from here. But after that aggressive move of catching up to
the 200-week moving average, you know, Matt, even in the equity markets,
when we get above the 200-week moving average, you have all the algos pop off.
And if we're having Larry Finkelstein twop in a bunch of money from anyone that he knows
to buy into this asset, which has largely left retail skeptical of it, then the path of least resistance is higher and aggressively, not only to the prior
cycles, prior cycle highs, but the one before that, especially if you have Scott Bessant
saying that the current addressable market for stable coins is two to three trillion.
And if most stable coin liquidity is on ETHTH then you're going to have the base layer for
stable coins but wait but it's not it's number two it's not it'll take time for for total for
for total stables on total stable no no it's number two we talked about this Tron is number
one we talked about this no Matt this Matt if you include all the
layer twos as well like ETH
ETH is it we're talking base
abstract optimism like that
that's all ETH
it's like
I guess that's
two different
I just wanted to add this
color real quick so it's easier
for us all to visualize.
For ETH BTC to make a new all-time high right now, you would have to say, okay, one, let's say that Bitcoin topped out at 120 just to make an even round number.
That's Bitcoin's new all-time high that's going to be set for a long time.
Let's just say Bitcoin tops out at 120.
For ETH to make a new ETH BTC all-time high, that's basically 17,700. But really, let's just
round it up to 18,000. That's what you would need ETH to get to, 18,000 to make a new ETH BTC all-time
high. And again, assuming Bitcoin hit its cycle all time high
at 120 and never makes a penny higher.
So that's, I don't know, that's a lot.
I mean, that's a lot you gotta say.
Yeah, well, we'll see on the way there.
If I'm wrong, then I'll admit it.
It's fine.
I'm with you.
If you're saying new all time high it's fine i'm with you if you're saying new all-time high
in usd i'm with you i i i'm saying uh i forget who asked earlier but i think bitcoin 150 eth 5k
by by late fall this year sure easily those are two fresh new all-time highs for both you know and then we'll see what 2026 brings
maybe the bull market lives on but um i mean i don't know you're gonna need a hell of a lot more
time uh for eth btc all-time high whether or not it's even possible but like i think what you
really really really need is time yeah there's there's a there's a lot uh of things that this cycle
could throw and arrange towards that and the first thing that i'm looking at is um the pi cycle top
on bitcoin which right now is at 178 78k right below 180, essentially,
which is also where the 1.618 is right now.
So I think that's going to be like your new 74k slash 108k,
followed by like a 30% correction or something like that.
And then we do nothing for a few months.
I thought our 1.618 was at 155.
I thought that's what it was.
No, we'll do some chart.
Okay.
No, we'll do some chart yesterday on my Twitch stream,
which also, by the way, guys, just check the link in my personal account,
in my bio.
It should be right there.
All the replays from those. Take his word for okay um hey i'm here for 150 i'm here for 180 i'll take 180 that's bigger than 150 but um actually awabi and donnie i shared up in the
nest so we've been talking about iron last week and iron uh the week before uh i mean it was just
on this unrelenting pump and i shared up in the
nest like take a look at this it hit new hives it did it hit 21 it did but honestly i think
look i don't want to fight anyone's bag so i'm not going to say it but i'll say it
i think shmiren might have made a tocal blop today you know what i'm saying maybe a possible yokel lop total local top i'm just
saying but i mean like look at this look at this chart look you have a new all-time high volume
candle one day volume candle uh you have a very obvious price target of 20 where you know you had a lot of out the money calls a lot of uh
a lot of smart money cashing in those calls just as soon as it hit and then so and then just look
at the intraday you ran all the way up to 21 even into 22 and then it more than retraced the whole
move round tripped it to back down to 18 by close uh i mean unless bitcoin truly gets on his horse and
i mean with a quickness um i think iron just had a a local top and is going to need some
consolidation for the uh short medium term here yeah that's that's fine man it's it's it's been
uh it's been on a tear i still think just from
like a price action standpoint it's doing what uh what hood did and hood also uh hit
over 110 earlier today which is which is unreal man um whenever the next big equity drawdown
happens buying uh buying more hood is morehood is definitely on the table.
Right, but the big difference there, though, being iron is tethered at the hip to Bitcoin price.
Iron makes money when Bitcoin is pumping.
97% of iron's revenue comes straight from selling Bitcoin.
So if all of a sudden, you know, one week turned into two weeks, if Bitcoin's taking
a little breather, taking a little resty, it's doing a little mini consolidation here at 117,
118. Anything that is been giga pumping and short term decoupling from Bitcoin, you got to be really
dubious. You got to be really skeptical. I mean i mean if you're sitting if you've been sitting in iron since five dollars seven dollars nine dollars you don't care you know
you're like you're sitting on your 3x or your 2x maybe you took your maybe you sold and took your
principal out but you're just playing with house money at this time so like yeah if you're a medium
term long term holder of iron you don't care but just look at that daily candle this week or the
week uh the daily candle today or the
weekly candle this week and last week.
That is a hell of a lot of new retail, brand new retail that bought at $17, at $19, at
$21 that are sweating bullets right now wondering, oh shit, was this quick flip?
Did this quick flip just turn into a bag hold?
It's just vertical accumulation, Matt.
Is that what that is?
It's just vertical accumulation, bro.
Wabi, bro, I want to see what happens to the meme coin market cap with rates at one percent
what do you mean one percent bro we're going to zero
yeah dude i'm listening to trump dude if trump says the market's gonna explode
for a long time bro dogecoin is gonna be dogecoin is gonna be a better store of value than gold in in that case
scenario yeah literally bro dude if if trump is legit which man it's hard not to take him for his
word we're going way higher the dude just wants to pump the market it's it's literally that simple
and take all the glory and
then you know we've discussed what that means for the stable coin proxy for us debt that's one way
they're funding the problem pump this market attract the capital they don't care if you're
buying fart coin or whatever you're still purchasing stable coins by proxy right so let's see let's see
how hard they pump it yeah in the meantime we'll just aura farm as ETH BTC
just grinds up
even if it doesn't go into
discovery
if it was to make a new all time high
you would need the whole of 2026 I reckon
and you would also need
BTC having a massive
distribution right
and the moment that it has kind of like the
hammer where it actually drops significantly
and breaks market structure to bearish,
ETH to actually have a rally, a big spike up
to where, let's say, I don't know,
BTC corrects from 250 or higher to, I don't know, sub 200,
while ETH is actually still rallying
and catching that rotation to a massive degree that
it can skew that chart for sure it's possible you could you could wicket if you actually crunch the
math but like again so many things have to line up it would be it would be crazy if that happened
trump is telling you that he's gonna do zerp and kiwi man he'll he'll
find a way to do it in the next 18 months and i'm not even trying to sound smart there's a lot
look man there are a lot of people that come on here and they try to sound smart i i will tell
you firsthand i'm not one of them and um right now the playbook is as simple as me and donnie
have been discussing for months sc Scott Bessent and Trump
are telling you that they're going to pump the huddle of this market in February. And I mentioned
this on Spaces many, many, many times when Bessent went on national TV about a week and a half after
the inauguration. And he's like, look, the market is sick. Just wait five to six months and then you'll see the Trump economic boom.
And we're here. It's the Trump economic boom where you can top blast and buy high to sell higher later.
I remember going on Mike's face and talking about Galaxy Digital and you had a few people that I'm not sure why anyone comes on here.
They try to sound smart. it's like they try to be
some CNBC news reporter it's like dude people don't really mess with that like you're trying
to put people to sleep grandpa and I think Galaxy was trading at 30 at the time um I was looking at
the Canadian stock market chart and I'm like Galaxy probably sends because people are kind of tired of sailor because there's only
so many what was it that matt says when people buy micro strategy they're betting on sailor
buying bitcoin with with a bigger clip yeah yeah you're you're betting you're betting that sailor's
next buy will be bigger than his previous that's that's that's the micro strategy trade that's what
keeps the premium going up uh that's why actually this monday you had some people that were kind of
disappointed or pissed like what only a seven only a six thousand something sixty five a hundred
bitcoin purchase that's you know that's not as big as we were thinking yeah you're basically spinning the
roulette and so here's here's my thing right what's the sailor proxy who's going to benefit the most
that hasn't really gone the spotlight one someone younger two someone more enthusiastic and
understands the market and three um maybe like a pseudo arbitrage trade and i mentioned galaxy and i was i was honestly like
met with with skepticism uh with a few people on that mike didn't like it yeah mike alfred didn't
like it and uh no it was i don't think you were there on that space matt this one happened
not this weekend but on the weekend before yeah i think it was like some BTC gold bug.
But then Galaxy ripped face all of last week.
And so we're at a point now where now you have low-cap stocks getting the clear message that, hey, we are running back 1998 to 2000.
And if anyone is old enough, I'm certainly not. But if you just pull up the S&P and the Nasdaq composite in 1997, we had a correction. And then over the next like two and a half years, all the way up until March of 2000, the Nasdaq tripled in price.
in price and i've got i think i've got i've got the comparison here i'll just throw it up in the
nest of the jumbotron it's literally copying itself the nasdaq 90s to nasdaq uh nasdaq internet
to nasdaq ai it's copying yep and and i'm not really trying to sound smart here i'm just saying
guys there's a clear setup and then i've got don Donnie to kind of like, you know, he curates the message in a more sophisticated fashion, right?
I say, hey, we're going to go up.
And then Donnie's like, yep, that's right.
Because of XYZ, here's a clean chart.
A clean chart, by the way.
Donnie's charts are probably among the best.
Him and Max, they put some of the cleanest charts in this entire app.
And, you know, there's a reason why I've had Donnie not to glaze, but you got to gas up your friends, man.
If you have friends in this space that have collaborated or made content with you and you don't gas them up and give them their flowers and, you know, give some appreciation, I really don't know what you're doing here, to be frank.
But, you know, Donnie, he started these shows when he was at 5K followers, and now he's at 17. Probably is going to be at 50 by the end of the
cycle, or by the end of the year, to be honest. But nonetheless, some pretty clear-cut signal,
guys. You want to follow people that give you clean data and also trade and put money where
their mouth is, right? It's one thing to be
a market commentator like, oh, today Bitcoin went down 10%, could go up or down. But it's another
thing to follow people that give you the step-by-step toolkit as the market progresses.
And they're actually right. And they're actually right. I think now from what Elon shared,
um i i think now from what elon shared x is one of the most used apps now so there's a lot of noise
there is a lot of noise concerning financial markets um i mean i wouldn't even doubt at some
point for like jim kramer to start streaming here to be honest with you guys which would be kind of
hilarious which would be kind of hilarious because as much as jim kramer gets shit as much as he gets shit um he did say that nvidia was a uh was a
pretty solid buy in january of 2023 and so many people shat on him bro but um i wish him the best
bro he's getting old it kind of it's kind of kind of sad, bro. When you live your life and years go on and you start seeing people get old. My goodness, man. I wish him the best.
Donnie, Matt, Paul, is there anything tech that are Tesla reports in less than 48 hours.
Google quickly after all the big tech and blue chips are going to give their numbers.
And and look, no one's bearish.
Everyone's just wondering how big of a beat each of these companies are going to post.
So, yeah, I hope I hope everyone got into their positions beforehand because
money's moving farther
out the risk curve everything you see
it everything's pumping everything's
running straight back to its previous all time highs
so just sit
tight
Donnie what's up man do you have anything
else to say brother before I uh pass it to ragsy
you or paulus no that's it for me bro oh okay okay ragsy what's going on how are you welcome
back i hope you're feeling better by the way because i know you told me that you were yeah
yeah i'm feeling a little better the designated closer I actually might get a call now, so I might have to bounce or get cut off.
But yeah, no, I concur.
I concur with what everybody said.
I'm just really excited.
I've been doing crypto a long time.
Been really waiting for this ETH rally and been like DCing the entire cycle, essentially, to my like top ETH meme plays.
So I'm just pretty excited.
Yeah, memes aren't dead.
They're never going to be dead.
They're the number one most attractive thing to like retail buyers.
And, you know, I really think the top memes on each chain are going to see crazy amounts of volume, especially on Ethereum.
And I'm also looking at, I picked up, I made one big buy today, I think I can talk about it because it's a stock.
So BlockXYZ, which is Jack Dorsey's company that I like actually forgot about. You know, he went crypto
last cycle and the stock exploded all time high. I think around like 268. They just recently got
announced that they have also joined the S&P 500, which I was very surprised because it has not been
performing well. So maybe they know something we don't.
And it was a pretty good buy.
But at 78 today, even at the lows was like 53.
The majority of the lows was like 53.
So not too much higher.
And I think like because the bull run isn't over
and I don't think the S&P 500 is cooked just yet.
I thought it was a really good pickup.
I really like crypto-related stocks
because I feel like crypto people never look there.
But, you know, to me,
to me, it's a lot less risk for a lot more gain.
One of my... I'm getting the call.
I don't know if you guys can hear me.
One of my big pickups was the Coinbase...
The Coinbase stock.
Sorry.
I'm blowing you up.
Someone's blowing you up.
I gotta go in a minute.
One of my biggest safer crypto plays was actually the Coinbase stock that I called the bottom in the bear market.
I think there's like, for people like stocks, I think there's potential with block XYZ.
And I said this, I think, in the last show, Abby, I was here, watch.
There's going to be you're going to see a lot of crypto companies IPO at the top of the cycle.
There's going to be, you're going to see a lot of crypto companies IPO at the top of the cycle.
So I never buy the IPO because usually six to eight months after the bear market hits and you can get them at like rock bottom prices and basically like scoop them up for an expo.
So that's kind of what I focused on today.
Thank you for having me.
Sorry I was last and super short, but I do have to go.
I'll come back tomorrow with some more stuff. But great show, guys. Thank you for having me. Sorry I was last and super short, but I do have to go. I'll come back tomorrow with some more stuff.
But great show, guys.
Thank you so much.
Well, thanks for coming on.
Take that call.
It's important.
But hey, man, Donnie, Matt, Paolo, Louie,
I want to thank you all so much for coming up and talking shop with me today.
Shout out to you guys.
If you guys enjoyed the conversation, feel free to give everyone here a follow.
Feel free to follow us here because Bitcoin, we produce multiple live shows for you guys
throughout the week.
We have a YouTube show called Market Check.
That show is usually hosted Monday through Friday.
Start time, 11 a.m. to 11.15 a.m. EST.
That show is usually hosted by some of our analysts,
typically in a roundtable fashion.
So you always have a different set of guys
hosting the show that day.
And then later on, we have our afternoon show
called Market Talk, hosted by me, Wabi.
Usual start time is between 4.20 to 4.45 p.m. EST.
Both shows usually go on for about an hour and a half sometimes
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Of course, we do have some key differences, one of them being adding in our own custom indicators.
And feel free to check that out.
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Show some love to everyone's content here.
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Thank you, thank you, thank you.
I don't take any of this for granted,
but take care, everyone, guys.
God bless you all. Until the next one, peace out, take care everyone guys god bless you all until the next one peace out
take care and uh be careful out there on uh on leverage of course but see you on the next one
guys bye bye Thank you.
