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Market Talk- $ETH HITS 4300! Is alt season incoming!? $BTC 180k SOON!?
Recorded: Aug. 11, 2025 Duration: 1:19:49Space Recording
Short Summary
The crypto market is witnessing significant growth, with Ethereum breaking key resistance levels and Bitcoin nearing its all-time high. Institutional adoption is on the rise, driven by major players like BlackRock, while historical trends suggest a bullish August. Anticipation of rate cuts and favorable macroeconomic conditions further bolster expectations for continued growth in the crypto space.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. I can't remember anything
Can't tell the truth is true
Deep down inside I feel the scream
This terrible silence stops me
Now that the war is through with me
I'm waking up by can I see
That there's not much left in me
Nothing is real but pain
Now, oh, my friend this I wish for dear
Oh, please God, wait me I know it's much too real, and the fact that I must reveal, can't take a cold to it for a day
Look to the time when I live, and take a deep stick to me
Just like a wartime novel in the air,
Tend to the ships and bring me fear
Come to this life out from me, my friend this side was funny.
Oh please guys wait. Oh, God. Oh
God and
and so Got this! I'm not dead to myself, but I'm not only dead. That's my head, that's taking my sight,
taking my speech, taking my hearing,
taking my arms, taking my legs,
taking my soul, and it was like a nail. No! music Thank you. music Hey, what's going on guys happy monday hope you guys had a fantastic weekend welcome back to
market talk brought to you by because bitcoin i'm your host wabi and guys the price action we've had
over the last couple of days has been absolutely insane the playbook in front of us is unfolding, and guess what?
It's massive.
We had ETH hit a multi-year break above that 4K resistance.
It traded at just above 4,300.
ETH BTC made a new year to date high it broke through
its yearly open each dominance is now at about 14 so we're getting close to the upper range of
each dominance where all coins finally finally are about to see some breadth. If you guys take a look at ETH dominance, just go on your trading
view, put ETH. It's a metric that not many people are using, unfortunately. And I really,
really think that it would be wise for everybody here listening to tell people about ETH dominance
because it's probably going to do the same exact thing
that Bitcoin dominance did for a number of years. But the good thing is, is that because it's
Ethereum, you'll probably have a lot more opportunities on chain. And we've seen that
on Solana. We've seen that on ETH. We've seen that on base. And the good times are about to roll in. And I usually start off the
space talking about equities, but it's just a bunch of chop. And the only things that I'll be
paying attention to moving forward are HUD, Circle, and ARK. We had ARK go back to range highs it's like two bucks away two points away from uh breaking
that july high and we also have cpi coming in tomorrow expectations are at about two percent
2.8 percent and honestly i i think it's really a nothing burger until jackson hole but just kind of
my uh my short-term thoughts on that. I alerted the Discord on this,
but if we come in at expectations and I just expect us to break out, we had Bitcoin about
a couple hundred bucks away from retesting its old all-time high. Ethereum is now officially less than 20 percent actually about 15 percent um from making a new all-time high or
at least retesting its old all-time high and there are a lot of good things shaping up ahead of us we
have rate cuts incoming in september fed watch still prices that at over 90 so we're just going
to get that rate cut honestly and all this is just noise
but just taking just taking a look at the bitcoin chart uh it seems like we're doing the same exact
thing that we did from uh early may mid may all the way up until early july that two-month range
but just an expedited version of that.
It really seems like these ranges just get shorter and shorter and shorter.
And yesterday was testament to that.
And I'll say this, myself and Donnie, we did a stream yesterday that played out perfectly.
Bitcoin broke out to range highs.
ETH made a new year-to-date high.
And honestly, we take a look at some of these
coins that have been melting up, things like ENA, even things like Chainlink are melting up.
But we don't really see that much excitement on the timeline. And there was a pair that me and
Donnie went over during the stream, and it's Bitcoin on multiple Forex pairs. We covered the pound, we covered the euro, and both of those
pairs are not in price discovery, whereas the USD one has been in price discovery. So that is
something to take note, and perhaps it does speak to Bitcoin's inflation-adjusted all-time high
relative to when it was trading at $69,000 in November. Of course, over the last four years,
the prices of goods and services,
the prices of utilities have all gone up tremendously.
So it's probably why it doesn't really feel like alt season
and really why this cycle has felt like it's been dragged out for so long.
I mean, you had Bitcoin dominance trend for two and a half years.
ETH Bitcoin was going down for three years.
Others, BTC is barely coming out of a three and a half year bear market and is well below
its January 2018 all time highs.
So for those that still claim that the quote unquote cycle is going to be over, then I
would suggest you learn the way monetary cycles and business
cycles work. Because if you're in Bitcoin, you obviously want to know the way money works. And
it's really, it's kind of a low ball to say that because of the halving, we're going to top out.
having we're going to top out and none of the uh none of the froth signals have flashed not once
not the pie cycle top or any stuff like that or whales just massively dumping their stacks
um i think there's some metric that uh that covers that i think like if more than like a
thousand whales or something like that begin dumping their btc and you start seeing uh mike
novogratz on tv talking about super cycles and all that stuff that really hasn't started yet and i
think the i think something that can serve as a prelude though was joe lubin going on cnbc and
claiming that eth can flip bitcoin in a year's time i think that's more of a prelude um and that
was with eth at well above 4300 4300 and some
change actually that was before that that was before that excuse me i think that was on friday
um but uh either way some um extra alpha for you guys um i'm drinking saratoga still water
it's probably the best water on the market.
And I got Donnie up here.
I got Data up here.
Data joined me on Friday. I also sent Mike Alfred an invite to speak on today's show.
But really, the next things to cross over ahead of us are Jackson Hole after the CPI
reading tomorrow. And inflation is a bit sticky
right now. I won't try to cap and say that it isn't. But that still doesn't really justify
rates being at 4.5%. I mean, we had the Bank of England cut rates, and usually when other banks start to cut rates, America typically falls too, even if they are last in line to do that, as they did with pausing rates about two years ago.
But nonetheless, guys, we're going to go ahead and get started, see what the guys have to say about the markets.
say about the markets before we do that before we go ahead and cook for you guys over the next 45
minutes maybe close to an hour i really want these uh these shows to be quick and concise
until eve is actually in price discovery and there's a ton to talk about you guys can go ahead
show some love to the space best way to do that is by clicking the spaces tab once y'all do that you'll
see a nice link up above on the nest that says x.com slash i slash spaces and you guys can go
ahead and smash up that like button hit up that retweet button comment any questions that you guys
want us to answer anything that you guys are seeing uh in the
market but go ahead hit up that like button smash up that like button get your thumb and if you want
complete chud jack annihilation if you want complete bear death hit up that like button hit
up that repost and retweet button as it does a number of things helps get us out more into the
algorithm helps get more people in here, brings more
awareness of the brand. And of course, I'd be very, very much appreciative. You guys always do
a great job of that. But yeah, got Donnie up here, got data up here. So let's go ahead and
get cooking. Oh, and by the way, guys, I tried seeing this movie on netflix called gods of egypt and it's honestly horrible
gerard butler um did not deserve such a such a shameful such a shameful experience man that
movie is is terrible do not watch it but either way donnie what's going on, man? This playbook that's in front of us, it's unfolding, man.
And it's unreal.
And the big boys, once again, are following us step by step.
They're following the Melt-Up thesis.
And, dude, Ethereum is a snap of a finger away.
dude the theorem is a snap of a finger away before you keep going sorry can you just give me like uh
give me like 10 minutes lit maybe someone else speak in the meantime oh yeah no problem man no
problem man i'll pass it over uh you're good man i'll pass it on over to data first then data what's
going on bro hey what's going on wabi Appreciate you having me up here as always. And yeah, some exciting times right now in the markets. It's a lot of big things that have been happening, right? You called it. I mean, we had Bitcoin spike up to 122 yesterday, impulse move higher. We had ETH, like you said, year-to-day all-time highs. And my opinion, I'm of the same volition as you as we're just getting started i think that you know i've seen people call for an october top standard four-year cycle post-having cycle right and again there is some
merit to that but i hate saying this this time is different but i mean with etf flows and with
various other institutions with micro strategy sharpling gaming meta planet all of these
institutions buying and continuing to buy.
Then you have others getting involved as well, these treasuries for ETH.
You know, there's a lot more pressure than there was versus last cycle.
And I think that's something you can't discount.
Not to mention, now that BlackRock's involved and they've recently applied for the Ethereum staking ETF,
which will introduce rehypothecation, basically restaking your ETH over and over to get more APY.
But you're accepting yourself to slashing risk.
So just the risk you want to take.
But at the end of the day, it's leveraged capital in a way.
And that's something that I think people aren't taking into account as far as Ethereum's price.
And besides that, we still have the United States.
They haven't announced
their accumulation plan for the SBR yet so that's something via either tariff
savings gold certificates or whatever that's supporting a Delta neutral
strategy that's something that's gonna create a nice catalyst you also have the
401ks and IRAs now being able to invest in crypto another catalyst you have the
genius act which is already passed mid-July, signed into law,
which is bullish for Ethereum and stablecoins, because as more people transact on the Ethereum
network for those stablecoins, it's burned deflationary via the EIP-1559 mechanism and,
you know, standard economics there. So there's a lot of catalysts coming and we have the Clarity
Act, assuming that's going to get passed in September, the end of September. So there's a
lot of things still down the pipeline, I think, that people aren't really
taking into account, not to mention the seasonality.
August has been bullish 2013, 17, 2020, and 2021.
And so this month is going to be no different.
And you also nailed it on the head as well, Wabi, when you were saying about interest
rate cuts and how they're definitely going to happen.
I mean, I think I haven't looked at Polymarket the past few days, but last time I looked Wabi when you were saying about interest rate cuts and how they're definitely going to happen.
I mean, I think I haven't looked at Polymarket the past few days, but last time I looked at it, it was around 75 to 80 percent that Powell's going to cut rates after the bad jobs report.
So that's something I think is going to get front ran and it's already being front ran.
But we'll see as the days and weeks pass and as we get closer to that September 17th date,
you're going to see people expecting that
and expecting with that the end of quantitative tightening which is in my opinion the real
catalyst to kickstart all season and so we're waiting for that I know right now we we people
said we've had kind of a stealth QE going on um whether that could turn into a full-blown QE we'll
have to see more stimulus money printer turned on but i think that there's a lot of catalysts still to come and in my opinion we're
just getting started and these dips that we're seeing right now i mean it's just you just have
to play you know standard support resistance game right so betting at the major support levels for
bitcoin 116.8 k which does line up with the range it was in for a couple
weeks before it broke down and then subsequently broke higher recently. But that's the area I'm
looking at right now. And for Ethereum, I mean, I think everyone's watching 4,000 because that was
such a big resistance. And we rejected off that, I think, seven times before finally breaking and
closing above it. And so, you know, if it's following the standard SR models,
you retest resistance as support, confirm it as support, and you go much higher.
And so for my opinion, I think Ethereum is going to, by the end of this year, $6,000. And then for
Bitcoin, $150,000. And then I think that we're not going to top out until May 2026 because of
the aforementioned catalyst, as well as, as you know things that maybe people aren't
taking into account because there's constantly new institutions new governments nation states
countries getting involved especially as you see that supply crunch start to happen um I think it's
you know it the the famous quote by Kobe said the hard road was 20k to 100k the easy road is 100k to 250k i think that's where
we're going by may of next year yeah when kobe switches his profile picture back to the to the
bitcoin glasses guy that's when uh things are going to get nutty man but um game over at that
point exactly yeah and he did that back in uh he did that back in november and the good thing about
eth dominance going up is that it's going to offer more opportunities for all coins um and again dude
if you look at eth dominance it went it went uh from d5 summer all the way up until february
march and that's when really all coins as a whole started to go ballistic.
It wasn't until ETH dominance was at 18 to 20% where the broader all coin market started to
rally. And you know what's odd, man? While ETH dominance was going up at that time,
LINK ETH was going absolutely parabolic. And look at what's happening right now link is doing phenomenal we also have
uh some other eth proxies like ena but people have been so conditioned over the last two years
by saying oh man if eth is going up then xyz token is going to go up no sir this is a this
is actually a new regime we haven't had the eth-dominance regime in years study that if you weren't in uh
in defy in in 2020 you got absolutely cooked you were roast beef you were you were hung like a
shrimp man on the grill extra mayo extra cheese brother but um thankfully there are some uh some
other options that are popping up.
It's really just TradFi stuff that seems a bit boring to people. Like there's this one project that I really like on ETH called Blockstreet XYZ.
And it's essentially the only exposure that you can have if you're actually bullish on the Trump administration bringing wall street into crypto and their entire
team is essentially the board of advisors um and also some team members from world liberty fly
so if you're bullish on on uh wall street stablecoin on ramps them coming into the market
that's essentially your only exposure and it's on eth mainnet it's also a pretty clean chart as well and it's a high cap it's not like like a micro cap or anything like that this thing is a is a
titan and has endured while eth dominance trickles up and it's a difficult market i understand that
it's not as simple as people make it out to be oh eth is going up let me throw a dart at this token
because it's going to go up it's not really like that we can take some trends again what happened um with uh with bitcoin dominance
it's it's really rotation heavy but the good thing is that there's going to be more sectors
to choose from so um i'm personally excited man and uh that target that you have at 6,000 and change that's where I have ETH so far
for a Q4 mini mini blow off I think the 1618 on ETH is like at 6,800 something like that so
a good sign would be once ETH on a on a number domination basis flips the S&P 500. So say like the S&P is trading at like 6,700, 6,600, something like that, right?
Probably a little bit more because the S&P has been trading like a Mach 9,
like a Mach 9, like Mach 9 speed.
So say like the S&P gets close to 7,000 and Ethereum is like on par with it,
that would be something to watch out for.
And ironically enough, both the S&P and ETH last quote unquote last cycle both peaked out at 4,800 to the dot.
They both peaked out at 4,800, which is something. It's something, man. And let me see right here. Oh, no, the S&P
traded well above where ETH was trading in January 2018. But I would say that's like a pretty good
local area, man, to take some chips off the table. And it would also be a stage in the market where you should actively be
dollar costs averaging out. But that's a ways away, man. That is a ways away.
Yeah. Yeah, absolutely. And real quick, just to touch on your couple of questions about dominance
is, yeah, for those who aren't aware, Bitcoin dominance has been trending higher versus
Ethereum, basically outperforming Ethereum since September of 2022.
And so we've had over two and a half years of almost three years at this point now,
where Bitcoin dominance is outperforming versus ETH. And I think now that we're seeing the ETH
BTC chart finally start to reverse, I mean, there's still a long ways to go as far as Bitcoin
dominance retracing. I mean, the big level to watch was that 60% level. And there's a
lot of, you know, it's a big area of contention right now. But I mean, once that fully breaks and
we continue lower, I mean, everything else is going to absolutely sin. And also keeping an eye
on USDT dominance. And if you want to combine USDC with that as well, I mean, that one is also
close to breaking major support levels and so
when you look at those two charts and you see them slowly start to break down like wabi was saying
you know yes when eath breaks out that's good for ults but it doesn't necessarily mean that every
alt is going to break out as well because there's been a lot of eath beta plays that i've been
watching and they're not going like they were last cycle, right? It's not
like ETH breaks out 5%, they're going up 20%. It's like some do, but then some just wait. Like even
Pepe was underperforming a lot recently. And that was something that where, again, it's a new market,
it's rotation heavy, like Wabi was saying. And so you have to learn to adapt. But at the end of the
day, if you bet on the strong performers and you look at that relative strength versus Bitcoin, so even on pullbacks like we have today, what tokens
are holding their value relatively well versus Bitcoin versus these other top tokens, right?
Those are the ones that you want to bet on at major support levels in the daily or weekly
timeframes, because when the bounce happens, those are usually going to bounce up up the hardest and so that's where i always get excited around days like today
we had a little pullback but it's like okay what tokens are performing right i'm gonna look to
bid those play some limit buys at major support levels and then see what happens afterwards but
in my opinion i mean we know that august is historically bullish based off of past cycles
so why not look to bid near those major levels and then also
keeping an eye on dominance and you know the outperformers and then seeing what you can bid on
because it's only a matter of time now before we actually have eth btc really ramp up and then
bitcoin dominance continuing to bleed which in my opinion can still happen for another seven to eight months oh my bad
bro my bad I clicked the mute everyone button by mistake ah okay no I'm just
saying yeah for it for the Bitcoin dominance I mean it's awesome room to go
because it can still bleed for seven to eight months if you're looking at the
last cycle and so it's you know it just started breaking down over the past month
but once it really gets accelerating that's when you'll see ETH really start to fly.
And then finally, you'll see it trickle down into other alts, which Wabi was saying Link.
I mean, Link hasn't pumped, you know, I don't know how long it's been since Link finally broke $20 again.
But I mean, now it had a nice little breakout.
And then you'll start to see that bleed over into other alts.
We've already seen Litecoin have its outperformance recently avax in my opinion will probably have
another run and then you have you know some of the other dino coins that may start picking up again
but that's really when you see okay money's really starting to flow back into those alts get away
from btc now we're ready for this alt run and like i said i'm going to be watching for the interest
rate cuts in september i mean once that happens and it's confirmed at that point you're really going to start to see money flow into
alts and get onto that risk on environment and especially if trump does something with the
tariff savings and giving 600 rebates back to all u.s citizens which it's an idea that he's floated
around the past couple of weeks so again there's going to be some type of stimulus in my opinion
he's he's definitely dead set on that he wants interest rates near zero so once we get the first rate cut
there's no telling you know how many more there will be after that i think right now they're
projecting two rate cuts this year but you never know there could be more man um btc dominance has
been below the nine week sma for a number of weekly closes.
And the last time we had that many weekly closes below that moving average was in DeFi summer.
And after that, late January 2021.
And both of those time periods, ETH dominance was going absolutely crazy. So, dude, if we're in January of 21, then that would make us have about 11 more months of bull market, right?
Perhaps a late summer top.
But, dude, markets never top in Q3.
They always top in Q4, early Q1.
That's how it's always been for whatever reason. I think the last time that markets peaked that wasn't a Q1 and Q4 would probably be a couple of decades ago.
Because even the dot-com peak was in March of 2000.
Same thing with 07.
I think we peaked like – let me see where we actually peaked.
I think we peaked like in – looking me see where we actually peaked i think we peaked like in looking at the s p 500 right now yeah we peaked in q4 of 2007 and then we went
through a 15-month bear market and we haven't had a bear market in equities that has lasted
We haven't had a bear market in equities that has lasted for more than a year since then.
Most bear markets in equity land have been anywhere from three to ten months.
And for whatever reason, man, people forget that most of the wealth that you're going to make in your lifetime is going to be getting the gains that you make in
a bull market and shoving them when prices are egregiously lower. 18 months from now,
prices will probably be astonishingly lower, to be honest, or rather two years from now,
compared to their bull market peaks. And that's going to be the real wealth trade. I told this
to Donnie back in November. It's going to be buying the next bear market bottom. That's going to be the kingmaker
trade. This is just a prelude, a prelude, to be honest. And you want to know when bear market
bottoms are formed? When people lose hope. They lose genuine hope and they say, all right,
if we lose this level, it's officially
cooked for a long time. And I remember that was a sentiment for ETH. You had people that were
honestly banging the door for ETH to go back into a bull market during that downturn from January
all the way to early March. Dude, I saw these believers, these massive believers at 1300 say, all right, guys, this is it.
This is the line in the sand. We're going to have to wait for confirmation because if it breaks
below 1300, you know, it's time to hit the oil rig, buddy. Strap up. It's time to hit the oil
rig. And I'm like, you know what, man, this has to be it. This has to be it this has to be it this is the bottom this is
the coveted fractal s&p is at 4 800 and during a trump administration people underestimate the
volatility and if we look at and and i mentioned this back in like february when kanya wanted to
launch a token and the whole tariffs the whole tariff stuff was uh going on about i'm like guys if we're about to go into a downturn it's probably not
going to last more than like eight to ten weeks if that if that and i was like guys this playbook
has been done before he was on his he was on his uh world trade war from from August of 2018 all the way to December, and the markets melted down with a snap of a finger.
And it was a V recovery.
As a matter of fact, he forced the Fed to do QE in January of 2019 at that FOMC meeting, and everything V reversed.
Bitcoin V reversed from $3KK to 14,000 in a few
months. So if we actually do end up going into another bear market during his term, I don't
really think it's going to be 10 months like Joe Biden's bear market. That bear market was like,
it had some volatility, man. But towards the tail end, it was so boring dude from like august to november
there was nothing to do nothing to do you you squeezed out volatility on both ends to the
upside to the downside and especially in crypto like after after the eth merge you weren't doing
anything you weren't doing a damn thing until I think it was like a month
after FTX collapsed
and then ChatGPT came out,
OpenAI released their product
and then Allcoins started showing signs of life.
So I'm hoping we don't have to go through that,
to be honest.
I'm hoping it's just like kind of the same thing
that we saw during the first few months
in the year bro what do you think man yeah no 100 and and also time back where you're saying
about ethereum and the cold capitulation around 1300 that was the i'm not gonna lie that the
ethereum capitulation was rough because we thought ethereum bottomed at least three or four times. I think it was,
you know, it was getting to those, you know, mid 2000s and it kind of got low. People thought
that was the bottom they bought and then it kept dropping, kept dropping, kept dropping.
And it was more like a slow bleed for, you know, Ethereum versus Bitcoin. And that's what you have
to look for is, like you said, that full capitulation. And I think that it gave people PTSD in a sense
once Ethereum started actually pumping. And also something interesting I want to mention,
you were talking about when Ethereum, everything started bleeding in 2022.
That's actually when Ethereum switched from proof of work to proof of stake, I believe,
was exactly when Bitcoin started outperforming it. You can look at the date.
I'm pretty sure it's the exact month it happened.
And so that's another reason why the Ethereum staking ETF
is also going to have a huge effect
because it's really going to basically show
that the proof of staking mechanism works
and then it's just going to amplify that even more, right?
And so that's going to have an actual use case for it
when you get that staking ETF and kind of leverage that. But that's something I'm looking forward to. But yeah,
I mean, to answer your question about the whole, you know, when the market's going to bottom out
and when people capitulate and kind of, you know, Trump's market versus Biden's, I think that
you're spot on with saying that Trump is focused on making sure the market does well. I mean,
in a sense, that's his legacy,
what he's trying to build. Honestly, I mean, he wants to make America great. He's tariff savings.
He's trying to bring work back to the US. And so that's something. But also you can see how many
times he comments about the market. Crypto is doing so good. The stock market is doing so good,
right? So any kind of pullback that we have, like you said, maybe eight to 10, eight to 12 weeks max, that's something that we can bet on. And you can use that to your advantage
at this point. And so it's very interesting to see what's going to happen this time around,
where you said a market never tops in Q3. And so is that, it could still be May 2026 top.
And so is that, you know, it could still be, you know, May 2026 top.
We could even have kind of the end of Q1 in a sense where we had almost a similar top even in March, April.
You know, that kind of happened as well.
So this past year.
And so that's something as well that I'm looking at.
But I think nonetheless is there is a lot of.
We really haven't started the full blown run.
I mean, it's it's been a weird market.
It's been very, very choppy.
Most people I talk to,
they're still down 50, 60, 70% on their altcoins
because alts really haven't done too much
besides a few like Hype,
maybe even Zui and a few others.
But there's really, you know,
most of the dino coins have still been underperforming.
So I think we still have a ways to go with that.
And I think people are just waiting for that risk on environment with the
interest rate cuts with.
Comp was.
Or. You're turning off. compass Or
You're turning off
Can you hear me now? Yeah, you're good. I think you drove through like a tunnel or something
Yeah, little little bad signal right now, but basically all the things just it's it's too much bullishness man it's too much bullishness they keep they keep cutting him off
yeah they keep they keep cutting him off i see see Scottie Pippen in the audience.
Scottie, if you want to come on up, feel free to do so, brother.
Maybe Scottie can help save the space from not being rugged.
But in the meantime, man, Donnie, brother, what is going on?
The setup is here.
The playbook is unfolding.
And it's insane
it definitely is bro i think we did a really good uh live stream yesterday kind of discussing
everything going uh on a much you know higher time frame and kind of viewing that setup and
seeing what's uh you know what could potentially unfold over 2026 and what data points you can really just look at
to give you some forward guidance
if that setup does in fact start to change
and you need to get out of this market a little bit earlier.
So a lot of people like to call for cycle top here, cycle top there,
but really you can just monitor everything
and have multiple
viewpoints, see which points of confluence connect for whichever setup is being played,
and then just play it.
So there's no need to be fixated on it's going to be late 26, it's going to be mid 26, it's
going to be this year.
You can literally just play it.
And even if it's multiple waves, like how I believe it will be, you should still play both
of those waves. You should try and sell the top
of this next wave and
reaccumulate the bottom of the next wave.
That doesn't mean you have to go 100%
cash and then 100%
allocated on
both the peak and the trough.
It just means you should play it with some sort of risk
management to protect yourself
against something that maybe you couldn't connect the dots for so i think we're definitely setting
up for a nice wave up here for the rest of the year potentially going into january
and yeah we discussed that on yesterday's video quite nicely but i do have some charts to go over
for uh today as well as we had you know some nice developments from yesterday basically i shared in the nest by the nest, by the way, if you just pull that up, go on the first
chart, which is just BTC. This one's quite important, obviously, because
we need BTC to get past certain levels to confirm certain
things in the market and renew risk appetite in alts as well.
It's not just ETH doing well. You need BTC to
actually clear these levels, and a lot of them are just kind of psychological signals and also algorithm
signals that you need to cross for things to just start heating up.
But yeah, we had the key upside level marked from that manipulation bottom.
On this post, I actually quote posted when I
showed this chart, which was at that red box,
we were basically just waiting for some sort of low time frame reaccumulation
to be able to push back up in this range,
just so we could get above that key upside level,
which you can see I've marked with some green dollar signs on the left.
It just means that you've left a trail of untapped highs
so that when price does come back up to these levels, it has quite an easy
pathway to just basically go straight through them as it triggers a liquidation cascade.
So that's why you had such a big impulse yesterday. And it's quite normal to actually
see a pullback after you get that liquidation cascade happening because you've basically just
thinned out that whole area in the order book, which actually does make it easier for you to go back up if the point of
this move is from tons of demand coming in to actually continue pushing this chart higher.
And we do have the confluence to go higher, which is basically just the market pricing and rate
cuts after we had the bad economic data on August 1stst we had the ism downtick uh the job reports were terrible and we priced that downside in pretty quickly and as
we've seen you know in very recent history especially with btc it likes the price and the
resolution to anything bad pretty quickly because the resolution just keeps uh pointing towards more
stimulus so btTC sniffs that stimulus
and really prices it in pretty quickly.
And that's what we're having right now.
So I believe the demand is there to go higher.
Therefore, this setup that we have,
this bullish PO3 setup,
technically on the chart,
I think it just goes higher.
And actually, we had a similar setup like this.
If you can see where I've marked that blue box,
which is just a support zone, you can see there's an impulse candle that led to this blue box that I've
highlighted. And actually, that was the same thing that we just had right now. You cleaned up the
entire order book all the way up to 112k. And then you pulled back some just a very low time frame
reaccumulation before the next impulse higher with that thin order book
makes it very easy for BTC to start basically teleporting on the chart to much higher levels.
So I think you could get something similar. It doesn't always play out the same,
but the setup is there. You do have tons of support on this chart below. I don't think
you revisit 112k anymore purely because that was the sentiment low of
basically a fear climax because of that economic data that came out. That was bad, right? So we've
already priced in maximum fear for that current situation where it would really have to take
something big to happen for you to go lower, which I don't see on the horizon. All I see is
the market pricing and those rate cuts. And as we incrementally get closer to the Jackson Hole
meeting, which is, I think Powell speaks on the 23rd of August, I think this chart is just going
to continue to go higher. And we'll see. He'll probably set up that FOMC meeting in September,
basically just kind of making it very obvious that he will cut rates.
And potentially, that's actually what causes a very sharp impulse hire. If we do chop around
here until that date, I'd have to see the setup on the chart to basically give me more confluence as
to, okay, as soon as he speaks, this chart is going to go higher pretty much. Otherwise,
we're just going to basically go higher until that meeting. And maybe as that unfolds, you get a little bit of a pullback.
And then obviously, the market continues to price in the evident rate cuts in September.
So no matter how you look at it, this whole setup is just to go higher.
And you're having the technical confirmations as well.
If you guys slide to the next image on that post, it's just BTC over gold.
slide to the next image on that post. It's just BTC over gold. I like to use gold as the barometer
of global liquidity. If that chart is going higher, it's basically one of the best barometers for
absorbing currency debasement that's going on. Basically, if you run like M2 over gold, it's basically the same chart. But if you're not an M2 believer, let's say, and you think it's some
silly signal, well, gold is definitely not a silly signal. If it's going up, people are hedging
against monetary inflation. So there's just no debate around that. If you've got gold seriously
appreciating, which it has been. And it's been telegraphing all of these BTC moves.
We know that even in the past three cycles, BTC just tends to lag behind gold by a few months
and eventually catches up in a very similar technical fashion. So we had the same thing,
a bottoming phase, which you can see I've basically overlaid gold in that light blue,
just so you can see how accurate it is with the technical
moves on the chart you had a bottoming zone i think that bottoming zone for gold was right as
the election rally was happening for btc uh gold was pulling back so again indicating some sort of
rotations out of gold to btc or just a cool off period for gold you had a clear bottom clear break
of the highs some pullbacks in between.
And actually where I've circled in green
is the same sort of climax of fear that gold had.
It was exactly on the tariff announcements in early April,
which basically caused everything to dip.
But then gold quickly appreciated
as it's a good hedge against uncertainty
as well as it is a hedge against
currency debasement. So you had a very sharp rally on gold, which were yet to confirm or yet
to follow through with on BTC. And I think that's kind of the next move. I don't know if it'll be
just as sharp. Again, you have to give some deviation to these overlays. They're not
completely perfect, but they're directionally correct. So I think the targets for me is just 138 to 182 for BTC.
There can be a ton of catalysts that assist the price directional bias.
So if price is going down, you typically have lots of FUD events to shake people out on those downswings.
And on the upswings, you've got a ton of bullish catalysts to just keep that momentum going higher. So we obviously know rate cuts are bullish catalysts ahead. The market is
already pricing that in, but there can always be more lurking in the backgrounds when those
conditions are optimal to unleash these bullish catalysts. So who knows? It could be a 182 for
all I know. All I know is that it needs to fulfill
a bigger upswing and then form a range similarly to gold. And I actually think in between that
range, we have the perfect setup for alt season conditions for the first time in three years,
because you're deep in price discovery. And you can see every other cycle, as soon as you 2x the
prior all time high, and you're deep into price discovery like that, altcoins start to catch a very big bid.
You just need the validation from the Bitcoin dominance chart,
which if you scroll now to the next image,
you can see Bitcoin dominance is starting to lose structurally
some key levels to the downside for the first time.
Obviously, Ether is performing super well.
Basically, the line in the sand for me on this chart for a decent
sort of like a decent
situation for liquidity
to go to alts is 58.5
I say decent because
rarely you need to lose that election rally low
but I think if you lose 58.5
which is that red dotted line there
I think you're heading towards
54.5 very quickly.
And we'll see if there's any resistance over there.
But even that, I think it's like almost a 20% drop from the high,
which is significant, right?
That's the most significant we've had since those 2022 lows,
basically, on this chart.
So it'll be massive, right?
It'll be almost like double what we had
during the Q4 of 2024 rally, which was pretty good. There was a lot of opportunity to make
a ton of money across different assets, different altcoin assets at that time.
And plus BTC will be at a much more inflated number, obviously, at that 138 to 182 area,
more inflated number, obviously, at that 138 to 182 area, where if you're having rotations out of
Bitcoin into alts that haven't even caught up whatsoever yet, they're going to have some pretty
sharp moves. So we'll see. If it stops at 54.56, I just think this chart won't be a linear path
to the downside of the cycle because there's too many catalysts for BTC itself. I think you'll have a lot of push and pull between BTC and ETH.
If I saw this chart really nuke to the downside, let's say, all the way to the low 40s, then
I would be worried for a cyclical top this year.
Let's say that materializes all before December or something like that.
Then yeah, I would be like, okay, they're really TPing out of Bitcoin and buying everything else,
going as far out on the risk curve as possible. That's always indicative in any asset class
that that's the end of the cycle. So that's one thing to watch out for, but I don't think you get
that. I think there's going to be a lot of push and pull, and you'll get a clear downtrend on this chart,
but I don't think it's just going to be that linear
like we've seen every other time,
where it's just like the classic BTC rips,
ETH rips, ALT rips, cyclical top, it's over.
Also, the timeline of kind of how I'm viewing the cycle
is more to the lengthened side,
purely because of what we've seen develop in the macro side of things,
which is basically the playbook that the US government is running,
which is pro-growth, pro-markets.
They're doing a lot of deregulation and a lot of stimulus to fuel that playbook,
which, how do I read this?
If you look at it from how long that'll take to actually materialize
and how long it'll take for the voter base
that they're trying to get voted back in with at the midterms,
we'll actually start to feel these things, have savings,
have actual investments from having cheaper access to capital
having cheaper access to capital and things like that,
and things like that.
It's going to take multiple quarters.
it's going to take multiple quarters.
And if they're trying to outpace their debt via growth,
we've run the numbers many times on these spaces.
They're trying to run numbers almost close to 7% GDP,
which again, you're going to need a ton of stimulus.
That's going to be tons of downwards pressure on the dollar.
A dollar bear market or a dollar even just going down
is upwards pressure on risk markets. So if we're going to have multiple sort of downswings on the
dollar, even from this point over the next 12 months or so, then you're going to have
basically tailwinds in the risk markets for that same length of time until the dollar has some sort
of significant reversal. So I don't think I have the DXY chart on this. I was only able to put up
four images, unfortunately. But basically, we're sitting at around 98.5-ish. As soon as you lose
97, you're going to have a much sharper drop on the dollar, probably towards the mid 90s.
And we'll see what happens down there.
But we're still yet to price in the weakness of the dollar below 100 because it's been
sitting here for like the last three months, the last four months, actually.
And we haven't even priced in this wave up in gold that we're meant to price in.
Again, that was thanks to the dollar nuke as well.
So we get to price in this first wave up and if the dollar is going to have another leg down potentially even two legs down and we're yet to price that in as well following this first bit
then that's definitely indicating at least at least six months uh but more likely much longer than that, more likely towards 12 to 18 months.
And yeah, so that's basically the setup. And on the last chart on this post that I made,
it's basically USDT dominance over USDT total market cap over Bitcoin. And you can see we're
approaching this range low, which is quite similar to the 2021 sort of setup that we had. We know the playbook around stablecoins, how the US government
is all over that. It helps fund their debt. They're projecting trillions of dollars flowing
into stablecoins, which is obviously very massive for the industry as a whole to do better. But one
of the mechanisms that they have to play
to basically bring that demand in
is to create this environment where assets do well,
specifically crypto.
So people actually come in and they're keen to buy the stuff.
They come in with cash.
It unlocks stablecoins.
And those stablecoins are used to purchase their debt.
So we know there's a big narrative around that. And we still haven't seen a very big spike up in USDT total market cap.
And I think that's coming. It comes with the risk on environment basically going green and everybody
coming into the space, assets in price discovery. And then you have a ton of new tether that gets
minted. And you can see on this chart, we're approaching that range low pretty quickly, where even
if you just deviate that range low, just like you did in 2021, because a lot of people are
arguing that you come to this range low, you form an accumulation real quick, and then
you reverse, and that's the cycle top.
While that is true, you can have massive upside, even if you just deviate that low, because
tons of new tether can be minted at that low, which skewsws the chart so the percentage doesn't drop as much because there's a ton of
supply coming in so last cycle there was 36 billion new tether minted on the deviations of
that low and look what it did to btc down there below it went from like what was that like 20
something k at that bottom all the way to 64k, which is a massive upswing for BTC.
And again, we've got an even greater narrative
around stablecoins, they're passing legislation,
all the other stuff I just said.
If we deviate this low,
I can only imagine how much new tether is going to be minted
while BTC, ETH, and all these top assets
are in price discovery.
And people are just going further out on the risk curve,
what that basically is going to do to the entirety of crypto. I think you're in for a massive upswing
on BTC at least. And then obviously everything else will follow purely because you're having
these alt season triggers actually confirmed for the first time in three years. So to me,
the setup has just never been better. It's also never been more clear. It was very unclear
while Trump was running
for president. Nobody was really sure of the playbook that they were going to run. And then
they ended up highlighting the deflationary playbook to begin with, which is why all assets
basically just nuked. And then they reversed the playbook, right? They reversed it and they
followed through. So they signed the one big beautiful bill.
They raised the debt ceiling.
They started deregulating the banking industry
and obviously passing all these bills for crypto
and all that sort of stuff.
So it's cemented in stone.
There's no reversing back
to the deflationary playbook from here.
It's run it hot and make all of these things
go in the direction
they want them to go, which is clearly to the upside.
So don't fight the playbook.
All past cycle examples and all that sort of stuff
isn't really applicable here.
You just kind of have to take the data that's in front of you
that the Trump admin has been basically walking you through
since the bottom all the way up until now and continuing to do so from this point forward.
So, yeah, I think the setup is truly insane.
And I think people are going to be surprised to the upside, but also to the length of the upside.
And I made a joking post. It's also up in the nest prior to the one I just shared.
max pain is permabulls being right for the next two years.
Max Payne is permabulls being right for the next two years.
So if you actually look deeper as to how this whole crypto BTC thing was set up,
the whole financial system, and how BTC has gotten to $120K
with basically no retail involvement whatsoever
and everybody bearish on crypto as an industry as a whole,
they've run this thing to $128K.
No one can afford one BTC for the most part.
And they're just going to run it up even harder
to really price out people out of the new financial system.
So that's kind of the playbook that I see unfolding.
Max Payne is definitely 400k BTC and you don't own any.
And that's how the elites run the game.
And I think you're just witnessing
the first increments of that right now.
And it'll be very obvious when BTC does go much higher. And you know, you're not really
holding any. And the dollar just consistently has this debasement mechanism that basically you can't
avoid. And you're stuck holding dollars and no real assets that can't or that don't benefit from
that environment. So that's that's kind of like the big
macro playbook and obviously everything ties together with the new digital era ai and everything
it all comes together so i don't know i don't know how you can be a bearish here to be honest it's
it's quite insane it is insane man and i think they're going to do the same thing um with ethereum man i've gone up ahead
and posted a basic chart ethereum is trading at 4200 and change and if we look at the macd
the macd still isn't even at levels of where it was at last year in march which means we could
be trading at damn near 5 000 and still not be at those levels. And Donnie, man, what you said
really rings true. You're going to have a lot of people just sitting in dollars, saving up to go
to their vacations to Cancun, and life is going to hit them hard and they're going to be wondering, damn, why have I not made it yet?
Why am I living this life where everything is exceedingly more expensive?
How do I grow my wealth?
And they're missing the playbook right in front of them.
And I've tried saving people, bro.
I've truly done my part in preaching the good fight that is the good the good fight that is crypto the good story that is
crypto but some people are just they're just not going to make it they refuse to learn i think
satoshi wrote this at the bitcoin talk the bitcoin talk forum he's like i don't have time to explain
if you don't get it that's too bad and that's the case for many many things man not just
crypto but just like life in general man if you see something unfolding in front of you
if you're seeing the president of the united states and the treasury and the president's
entire family tell you that you need to own some crypto and you're just not doing it because you
think it's either frothy or you think they're
up to no good because you have some personal vendetta against them then you're gonna sit
at 35 years old living with a roommate that hates your guts at a job that quite frankly you don't
respect anyone that's in it and i i found myself in a situation back in 2017 where I'm like, damn, dude, like shit just sucks.
Am I just going to work a job that that is really just a prison cell where I don't respect anybody, where nobody respects me?
Everyone hates each other. And the only thing to look forward to is just three day vac vacations four-day vacations every six months
is it actually worth it i don't think it is man i don't think it is and crypto offers an escape route
from the rat race in my opinion um it's certainly not a mega cap tech like this whole thing of
hey just invest into the into the s&p 500 and when you're 65 you'll be free
brother who who in their right mind actually believes that they're going to live that long
um that's actually quite cocky right uh but i don't want to get too deep into that man
but um donnie don't you agree man that crypto actually has a story where it can save people
from the rat race even at these elevated levels man the opportunities here are unreal and you can
tell someone you can tell someone um whether it's a friend or whether it's a colleague from the gym
like hey this is what crypto is all about i know you hate your life i know you want
to escape the rat race here's how to do it and they will look at you like a crazy person and
call you stupid like i i remember man i i got someone into crypto in december i'm like hey
look um buy yourself some far coin and let's see what happens right you know what you want to know what
they did they sold their far coin and they bought the top of melania and they didn't sell and i'm
like sell you have to sell you have to sell and i told this person to buy zerebro at 80 mil
and they bought and they shifted all those gains to melania and it's like retail has this weird way of moving where once they get into
crypto they make two good trades and then they just blow it up and then they think crypto is a
scam and I think that's why the learning curve in crypto takes so long um they get in they make a
good trade and they lose it all or they just get in and they get wiped out because they buy the top of some token. And I truly wish there was a better way to teach people, but the learning
curve is a lot longer than expected because these market cycles and these gains come a lot quicker
than expected. And when we take a look at some of these assets, right, like a Solana, for example,
at some of these assets right like uh like a solana for example right it's up like 20x in the
last uh in the last almost three years right from eight bucks to from eight bucks to like 170 we'll
call it 170 or 20x not many stock tickers can can do that sort of move or if you really really want
to extend it over the last five years from a dollar all the way to 170, you can't really find that in the equity market.
Not even NVIDIA has produced those amount of gains over the last five years.
So, dude, what you said, man, is pretty true, man.
You're going to have a lot of retail just holding dollars and they're going to wonder how the hell they were priced out of crypto.
Because at this point, dude, at this point, if you're a millennial or even if you're a Gen Z, you know what Bitcoin is.
You know what ETH is.
But greed rules everything, man. thing man and until things are deep into price discovery that flood of retail that we saw in
2021 and 2017 probably won't come until the top and it's out of ego it's out of ego right people
would rather buy something that's up like say 10 000 over the last quarter or a thousand percent
over the last like quarter rather than rather than an
asset like ETH where the average person could probably still scale into it they'd rather just
buy some altcoin that shoots the billions and buy the top the new thing right and it just it just is
what it is man but uh that was a good take Donnie that was a good take, Donnie. That was a good take. And I really enjoy
these takes that are like out of just out of price action, right? When we talk about sentiment
and actual fundamentals that affect human psyche and can have effect on future generations.
I love those conversations, man. I truly, truly do. because it also comes from experience man i'm sure we've
all tried to tell people that uh that um are in our lives about crypto and they just refuse
they just refuse and they would rather just continue on uh on their path but that's just life
man i said we got uh i said we got luke up here man luke what. Luke, what's up, bro?
What's up? How you guys doing?
No, it's choppy, bro. It's chop city.
Yeah, it's choppy.
I didn't hear what you were saying before, but are you thinking we push into the end of the month?
It's yeah.
I mean,
broad markets choppy right now.
What do you think?
Definitely should go back and listen to it.
If you have the means to in time,
but don't repeat yourself.
All good.
I won't,
I won't repeat the whole thing,
but basically just, yeah, I think you end the month off pretty strong.
You already cleaned up a lot of the liquidity above.
You had a very sharp impulse yesterday to do all of that.
And basically the only area you left untagged was the all-time high.
So the order book's thin.
There's a laundry list of things of why this chart should go higher.
Therefore, I think it goes higher.
Just a matter of when kind of thing.
I think you could easily see,
you could see well above 130 by the end of the month.
It just depends, right?
Yeah, and then the point about retail,
I feel like, I mean,
all the people that are buying the ETF so far those are
retail they're just I think they're your parents and older people that are putting one to two percent
in or like you know Bitcoiners that have an IRA that are just like smashing in but yeah it's interesting because i feel like the retail situation
that pylon only happens when something starts moving fast enough like don't you think like if
if it's a slow grind up with 10 15 20 moves at a time and then chop i don't i just don't see this thing could go longer than
everyone's expecting like people are i keep seeing everyone saying oh end of cycle two to three
months get ready and i i don't know it's always two to three months isn't it luke it's either two
to three months or three to six months and quite frankly i quite frankly i wonder like
what crystal ball do you have man like what crystal ball do you have to suggest that i mean
others vtc is going to rally to all-time highs that's what i wonder with these guys that the
four-year cycle guys and as a matter of fact most of the gains that are done in q4 are already done
going into the first week of December.
By the first week of December, most things have already rallied,
and there are very few assets that continue to move higher.
Check out the chart I posted, the tweet above in the Nest.
He does some really good business cycle stuff with like an aggregate of a lot of different you know
hey Luke man
your reception is pretty off
I'm not sure if you're driving
or you're at a busy place right now
can you hear me now
yeah you're good man
yeah just
the thing I posted in the nest by Decode,
I think that's what's confusing people is, like,
people think that the top is imminent,
but, like, we're not even into the acceleration phase.
I don't know if you can see that chart,
but, I mean, it's pretty clear.
Yeah, I see it, man.
I have a better meme for the situation.
I posted it in the nest as well.
It's the guys in the suit laughing.
Yeah, and that's a real thing too, Donnie.
That's a real thing too.
And then we told them the cycle tops every four years in Q4.
Yeah, they extended this cycle on purpose.
They extended this cycle on purpose.
Yeah, but what Luke said there about the incremental stair step on BTC,
you've had some periods of impulsiveness,
but for the most part, it's been very gradual, right?
And yeah, there's no excitement in that for retail
because they really do chase momentum. And that's when all
the media outlets really start to put into second gear. And you start seeing the Google trends
picking up on crypto searches, meme coins, ETH, all this kind of stuff. You just haven't had that
yet. And the higher it goes, the higher the ceiling is going to be as long as the incremental
stair step is still there.
But I think we're getting very, very close
to some serious acceleration.
The only thing is that even with what I was predicting earlier,
maybe we rally to 138, 182.
If it's on the upper end of that,
maybe there'll be a ton of retail interest there.
But if we're in the midpoint of that, maybe 150-ish,
sure, I think people would
start to really open their eyes a bit
but I think you're going to get slapped by a range
again for 4 months
plus that gold is basically projecting
the only difference is that
you do have these alt season
dynamics at play where
again if BTC is ranging in that
environment or in deep price discovery
alts can really
go crazy
in between that because we saw that when we did when we came up to 74k after the bitcoin etf and
we went into a range and that range was brutal and that wasn't with kind of all of the uh points
of confluence for old season that we have now and it was still like crazy lucrative especially for
meme coins you had you know pepe and all that
stuff oh you're saying you're you're saying if it follows the gold fractal up and has a boost up and
then chops until end of your pump then yeah oh yeah you you get the small uh cap all that stuff just
flying yeah well guys i think this is a nice place to wrap up if i'm if i'm being frank but uh if you guys
enjoyed the show this is your first time tuning in feel free to follow everybody up here on the
panel i go live here on x spaces mondays wednesdays thursdays and fridays at 4.30, between 4.30 p.m. EST to 4.50 p.m. EST.
I'm usually joined by the same set panel of speakers.
And if you guys enjoyed the content, feel free to give us a follow.
We also have a YouTube show called Market Check, which is hosted Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays
between 11 a.m. EST to 11.15 a.m. EST.
That's our TA show.
We go through all things uh charts graphs stuff like
that and if you want to catch the stream that me and donnie did yesterday on my twitch channel i'm
going to go ahead and put it up on the nest so if you guys click the spaces tab you'll see right
above our profile pictures the link to that twitch And guys, if you missed out on some parts of the space or you just recently came in and want to listen to the replay, these spaces are recorded.
And as you listen, please do yourself a favor and look up above on the nest.
And it really paints a visual representation of what we're trying to describe while we yap.
a visual representation of what we're trying to describe while we yap.
So, of course, feel free to engage, like, comment on all the posts up on the nest.
And we'll see you all on Wednesday.
But if you guys want to catch my Twitch stream, feel free to follow me.
I'm the co-host here.
Rather, I'm speaking to the BB account.
But the co-host that says King Lob that's my personal account and i'll be going
live on twitch at this time at 4 30 p.m est and um yeah you guys are going to absolutely love the
replay of the twitch stream that me and donnie did yesterday it was like about an hour and a half of
pure alpha but i wanted to keep today's stream more quick and concise i don't really think the market
is going to do anything crazy until after cpi or probably going into jackson hole if i'm being
honest with you all but uh if you guys enjoy the content once again feel free to follow everybody
up here follow donnie follow data follow luke follow my personal profile and we'll see you all
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god bless you all and if you are all looking for any sort of uh inner circle alpha group communities
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so Oh . Oh so
so Oh Thank you.
