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Market Talk - $ETH HITS 4k!! New ATH incoming!? BTC 180k next month!?
Recorded: Aug. 8, 2025 Duration: 1:51:52Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent market talk, analysts discussed the bullish momentum in the crypto space, highlighted by Ethereum's resurgence above $4,000 and the Nasdaq reaching all-time highs. The conversation emphasized the potential for altcoins to gain traction as market dynamics shift, with expectations of continued growth driven by favorable monetary policies and increasing investor confidence.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. The次回予告大阪市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市の中央市 Music
Music
Music
Music
Music so so
guys what is up what's up donnie i'll go ahead and send you a co-host invite welcome back
to market talk brought to you by because bitcoin i'm your host wabi man what a glorious end to
the week in these markets it's the week after fomc and uh indices are closing at all-time highs. The Nasdaq, the QQQ, closed at new all-time highs.
Highest weekly close ever for the U.S. stock indices.
Exactly as predicted here on this show last week when the market was choppy.
There wasn't really much to do.
There wasn't really much to do.
And we were like, guys, we need you to back up and wait until the week after FOMC for resolution.
More importantly, we have Ethereum back at above 4,000.
You might be asking to yourself, man, do I sell?
Do I de-risk?
risk and the fact of the matter is probably not and the reason being why is because ethbtc has
And the fact of the matter is, probably not.
been chatting for over four months now it has been over four months since ethbtc has bottomed out
and during any time period since the ftx collapse where bitcoin bottomed out at 15K and ETH retested 1,000.
ETH BTC has not had a rally that has lasted more than three weeks at all.
You can go ahead and check the ETH BTC chart.
ETH BTC did not rally at all for more than three weeks. This is the first time that ETH BTC has been in a consistent higher low and higher high structure um really since the
last bull market really since the last bull market and what's amazing guys is that things like total
three which is everything outside of the top 10 still hasn't reached price discovery and i'll
probably post the chart in my personal profile to kind of
show you guys the setup that we have here if you guys take a look at others btc and also total
three i want you guys to look at those two charts and look at their look at their previous peaks
look at the others btc peak in january of 2018 and then look at the total three chart from January 2018.
Compare those both and then look at when it was the next time that both of them went into
price discovery.
You typically have total three markup first before others BTC.
Why you might ask?
Why you might ask? Why, you may ask?
Simply put, it's usually Ethereum outperformance that gets the total altcoin market cap rallying
and typically mid caps.
And then you have your new tokens, your newer on-chain tokens, the lower cap assets that
become blue chips, which eventually push things like total three uh to new highs it
wasn't until quarter two of 2021 where others btc broke through its uh january 2018 all-time highs
whereas total three broke out to new all-time highs going into february of 2021 which was when
eith was outperforming a lot of these altcoins.
So that's why right now you might be looking at ETH and you might be looking at most of
the altcoin market and Ethereum is actually outperforming them with, of course, a few
outliers.
I'm not really trying to single out anybody here, but needless to say, during this time
period, if you're holding some on-chain alts if you're
holding some altcoins and you see a 50 drawdown occur over a week or so don't be discouraged
because corrections uh from 50 to even 65 are very very common in bull markets and those dips do tend
to be eaten up and again this is probably phase two of phase three in the bull market.
So phase one, if you guys should into yesterday's space with myself and the rest of the team,
I was explaining how bull markets and crypto are usually in three phases.
First phase, Bitcoin dominance rallies like crazy.
ETH BTC tries to find the bottom and there are
very very few opportunities in the altcoin market very few but still some opportunities and then
once eth btc starts to grind up after it finds it slow and eth dominance starts to grind up
you do start to see some altcoins outperform and greater in mass compared to when Bitcoin dominance was rallying.
And that's exactly what we've been seeing.
We're seeing things on sold, things on base, things on ETH that have been doing quite well.
And for a lot longer, too, if you guys have noticed the rallies that we've had in the altcoin market from 2023 all the way to the end of 24,
they were really rotation-heavy and sector-based.
An example, if you weren't in AI in Q4 of last year, you probably underperformed and didn't
really do much, especially after things like WIF and Pepe got listed on Robinhood and Coinbase.
That's exactly when ETH peaked at 4,000, and the market basically distributed for well over a month until you had that inauguration peak, which was really just a deviation above the previous highs.
But nonetheless, guys, really exciting stuff occurring in these markets.
And what do you know?
Robinhood stock, another all-time high, officially back in price discovery, smashed through 110.
It's up 10x over the last 12 months.
And we can't really say that with most altcoins, to be honest.
You really can't say that.
And, you know, I was really, I was really, earlier today, I was really taken aback on
when I first got into this market.
And that was during late 2017. Of course,
2018 was a bear market. But I remembered in 2018, you had a lot of weed stocks,
marijuana stocks, absolutely chad, while crypto didn't really do much.
And I sort of think that some of these AI IPOs are going to be coming out over the next year.
So we're going to offer some great opportunities just as Robinhood stock did. And it's probably going to be reminiscent of the dotcom bubble. You're going to see a lot
of these IPOs and many people are going to decide to fade them. And I think that's going to be a
pretty big mistake. But ultimately, outside of that, guys, there's a lot of cycle top talk going on, but the others BTC chart is really reflective on how lazy a lot of people are.
Not lazy, but rather uneducated.
And it is actually the gauge that people should be looking at if they want to call for alt season.
season because when you buy anything outside of bitcoin you're effectively saying that you have
greater edge um in holding something for a longer period of three months um than purchasing bitcoin
and that hasn't really been the case uh and others btc the way it looks right now it's still in its
very very very early stages uh of bull market, in my opinion.
So we have the Fed meeting at Jackson Hole here in a few weeks.
They're probably going to cut once again in September and probably the Fed meeting after that, the one after that.
So we have a lot of good tailwinds.
We have a lot of good tailwinds behind us so i want to formally welcome you back
on once again guys and uh hope you're all doing well happy friday happy friday and let's go ahead
and get started but before that if you guys can go ahead and show some love to the space
click that spaces tab then right up above our profile pictures you'll see that link that says x.com slash i
slash faces hit up that like button if you are excited for what's to come of this market hit
up that like button but just as important smash up that repost hit up that retweet button god
bless you all for all of you that are tuning in right now you guys have so many options to
tune into other shows during this time but you guys decide to pull up here.
So I guess that means you guys find some alpha here.
But I'll go ahead and pass it on over to Donnie.
So it's probably just going to be me and Donnie today, by the way, guys.
I kind of wanted this show to be a weekly wrap-up,
but something that offers quick and concise information
that's really just a wrap-up of what occurred during the week
and probably what's to come,
just given everything that's happened this week.
And, of course, we also have Chad Scott-Bescent,
who is once again giving you all the playbook.
The setup is insane, and it is unfolding in real time.
Tiger Woods mode.
Tiger Woods going into his prime.
Donnie, the Grand Sniper.
100x Donnie, soon to be 1000x Donnie.
Brother, what is up man it has been uh quite the week
hasn't it bro hasn't it welcome what's up wabi loving the energy bro it's nice to see uh eth
above 4k finally we're kind of expecting this for some time just basically following uh the
coinbase stock overlay that
was projecting uh basically clearing that 4k level sometime soon right we're looking for an
incremental pullback uh to retest the breakout zone which for ether was 3.44 and we got that
and then now obviously above 4k so i i think this uh rally ETH still has a lot more legs in it. When I look at the coin
stock and ETH overlay, sure, they look quite similar, but ETH tends to outperform on the upside
when the conditions are right. If you just check kind of like the timestamps on the chart and see
the context of what happened, let's say in in previous cycles or even points in this cycle.
So we know that the market is actually pricing in rate cuts.
That's what we discussed in the last spaces, which basically just means that the risk barometer in crypto,
aka ETH BTC, should actually continue to rally here.
Why? Because we're going to have downwards pressure on the dollar.
So I shared a chart that I shared in April 26,
or maybe for you guys, it's April 25th,
of what I was waiting for to see a reaction on the ETH BTC chart,
which was basically the moment the dollar loses the 100 level,
especially after such a blowout from the COVID cycle,
being above 100 for three years,
you had a perpetual downtrend on the ETH BTC chart.
Again, that's the risk barometer of crypto.
When that thing is going up, people are taking more risk in crypto.
So the moment we actually dropped below 100, we had global liquidity really start to shoot up.
And ETH BTC actually bottomed the following week. So if you look at ETH BTC now and DXY now,
ETH BTC has clearly marked out a bottom.
It flipped that blue line that's on that chart,
which is the weekly market structure.
And it's actually pushing even higher now.
DXY has spent how many months now?
Like three plus months below 100.
Let me just quickly check it.
Four months below 100. Let me just quickly check it. Four months below 100. And we know rate cuts and the new debt issuance of the treasury side is going to weigh on the dollar even more. So what does that mean for ETH BTC? That means you
should expect the uptrend to continue because financial conditions globally now are set to
ease even further. So I think ETH has a long way to go before this thing tops.
And subsequently ETH BTC as well.
We'll see how high that goes.
The main level that I'm watching to see if there's any resistance would be the supply
zone you've got at 0.045 all the way through to 0.057.
If you clear that, which you're approaching this 0.057 if you clear that which you know you're approaching this thing
with speed if you clear that or start to disrespect it uh pretty quickly within this year man i i
actually think if btc could run up to like the 0.08 level which is basically the uh this uh
december 21 highs and that will be huge because i'm not expecting BTC to be below 130 moving forward from
here. I'm expecting it to be between 138 and 182 for this year. If you work out the math of how
that would look like for an ETH USD price, gauging it off the ETH BTC chart, let's say BTC goes to 150. If this ETH BTC chart is at 0.05, aka 5% of Bitcoin,
then you're looking at 7.5k ETH. Now that's a huge jump from the prior all-time high.
And I really think that's going to make the altcoin market go crazy because we haven't
had an all-time high break on ETH USD this entire time.
And we've still had coins like Pepe hitting 13 billion market cap, right? So you haven't had
altseason dynamics and you've had coins like Pepe on ETH hit 13 billion market cap. So, you know,
there's a lot of upside still to come on those tokens and tokens linked to it. And obviously the rest of the market.
But what you're seeing now is because you're probably looking at ETH, you're like, okay, 4k ETH, my bags aren't moving.
What the hell is going on?
Well, it's actually more healthy this way, right?
Just like how BTC is so massively inflated and you're seeing now rotations into ETH, or you're just seeing the ETH BTC chart, you know, be skewed
in that favor, you're seeing how sharply ETH can rally when those liquidity rotations happen,
right? So you want ETH to go find its local top somewhere around 7, 10, 12k before it actually
starts to show signs of exhaustion. Because in those signs of exhaustion, it's basically telling
you that people are, you know, they've maxed out their ETH profits. They know this thing is running out of
juice, diminishing returns. Let me shave off some ETH and throw it into Pepe. Let me shave off some
ETH and throw it into every other L1 that's lower in market cap. That's how the bigger players in
the market think. And that's how they move their liquidity to continue making profit while you've got this risk on environment clearly active right clearly active because the xy is in a perpetual
downtrend and eth ptc subsequently is going to be in a perpetual uptrend so let eth do its thing
don't freak out about like oh my bag is not moving because a lot of people were freaking out about
pepe not moving but you're seeing pepe now start to move. So it should trail ETH,
but it shouldn't have that explosive rally
until ETH starts to exhaust.
So I hope ETH doesn't exhaust until 10,000 plus, right?
And I don't care if my bags lag
because once that switch happens,
just like the ETH PTC switch,
all of the bags that are connected to that,
which is basically the whole market,
will start to rally and have blow off top after blow off top.
So it all happens quickly, right?
People get impatient.
They sell the bottom.
Then they chase a little bit.
Then they sell the bottom again.
And then they miss that real leg up, right?
It happens very quickly in crypto.
And if you're not positioned for it,
just literally holding,
you likely miss the meat of the move.
And then you've just cooked yourself.
You waited three years just to cook yourself in the end. So let the market dynamics play out and just be patient and
enjoy the green candles on the majors before it gets passed on down the risk curve because that's
just how markets work. It even happens at a larger scale where let's say gold, which gold is actually looking quite good for a pump here
because the dollar is looking weak.
Let gold go to 4K, right?
Then let the BTC gold chart start to rally.
Let gold have its top, its distributive top,
and let those rotations come out of gold
further out onto the risk curve into things like BTC.
And that's where you get the massive impulse on BTC,
which catches people off guard. They think, you They think the top is 130, 138. We haven't even had a skewed BTC gold chart,
which just logically thinking, gold versus digital gold, it's gained momentum against gold.
The last three cycles, it's likely to do it again and catch up to it over time as we go into a more
digital economy with AI, with all of these technological advancements, of course, BTC is
going to gain on gold. So why wouldn't do it this cycle when global liquidity is up and to the right?
Of course, it's going to happen, right? So when that does happen, you're going to have a very
sharp impulse on BTC. And that's where those stupid prices of 200k plus come about. So just have to be patient.
The liquidity cycle is looking very intact.
We're just having the Fed start to shift monetary policy from pretty much hawkish to go slightly neutral and now dovish with rate cuts.
That doesn't just stop all of a sudden.
The reason they're doing it is because the economy was showing signs of slowing.
So now they're trying to juice the economy with rate cuts.
So that's obviously going to work.
A lot of low to middle income households and small businesses rely on cheap access to credit to function, to literally function, let alone do well, have savings, invest it.
So that also takes a lot of time to trickle through the economy.
So that also takes a lot of time to trickle through the economy.
It takes multiple quarters.
So this is why if that switch is happening now,
to me, the odds of topping in 2025 is just very, very unlikely.
Now, if that changes, right?
If, let's say, inflation is running a little bit too hot for their liking
and they start to show that they might actually pivot back to increasing rates,
then sure, you're probably going to see a topping structure across the risk assets, giving you an indicator of, okay,
maybe things actually have gotten overheated. They've let this thing run a little bit too hot.
They want to pivot back out. Then I exit the market, right? And just change my positioning.
All of this is forward-looking data that you can look at and gauge what you want to do.
If it's telling you, you know, a certain outcome, which right now is telling us the opposite.
It's telling us that risk markets go up.
So it's happening now, and it's looking really good.
And the continuation from here is just going to get steeper and steeper
to the upside.
So just got to be a bit more patient and ride the wave
because it's going to be nuts.
It's going to be insane, as Wabi says.
Exactly.
It's insane
the playbook is unfolding the setup is unreal and and you know donny dude um i'm looking at
bitcoin dominance right now this is the longest time that bitcoin dominance has broken daily structure it's about to confirm yet another
week of uh of a lower high no not a lower high excuse me um actually a lower high a lower high
um if we have like a little bit of a balance but probably a lower low i would say on the weekly i
think we're going to break down over the weekend even more and potentially hit that first price target that you have for Bitcoin dominance, 58%.
Yeah, get below that. I think it's just going to be too heavy. Any bounces will just be a dead cat
bounce. The only sort of point of resistance on that would be the election rally low,
which is 54.6. But even the new from 66 down to there is a 17.5 percent drop on bitcoin dominance which is
the biggest we've had in three years so even that alone if it stops there will be you know super
lucrative for uh ults and you know shit coins and all that but if it chews through that
eesh man that'll be insane that that means Ether's doing something stupid.
Yeah.
That others BTC chart still really wigs me out a bit, man.
That chart has a lot more to go man and i think after that second rate cut i think that's when we see uh that blow off at least locally for others and then next year you see that uh that higher high
dude i just think that next year there's going to be at least one quarter of kiwi it happened in
2019 there was a quarter or so quarter and a half of qe it occurred in january 2018 powell started
printing money he printed money for about a quarter and a half and that ultimately led us to
have that blow off um in markets in june uh even in crypto bitcoin went to 14k many people thought
that we were going to go into that next leg in a bull market and i kind of think that a
similar setup is uh is happening right now man um yeah whatever correction occurs after that q4 top
and i personally think we could have a top in like early november maybe a little before that because
you know how this year has been man it's been shaking so many people out with seasonality.
So it's just a matter of like how do you play?
Or is it just crypto catching up to M2 where M2 has kind of had a little downturn recently and we're just catching up?
And after we catch up up we relax for a little
bit or does m2 catch up because of uh rates getting cut and then and also i think the bank
of england cut rates yesterday and i believe their rates are now at four percent so is donnie
uh is is not tonny but is is big don big daddy t gonna allow uh england to be more dothers than
us uh i i don't know man you know what would be funny though you know what would be funny
um just out of not just out of out of out of uh price action right imagine if trump is like pal
you know i like you i'm just gonna hire you again for a third term just so I can blame you
whenever the market pulls back. And yeah, I mean, dude, Trump needs some sort of like
adversary. He needs like someone to blame all the time. His first term, it was China, China.
I'm taking them home on trade.
I was the chosen one, right?
And then during this comeback, it was all about crooked Hillary.
No, not crooked Hillary.
It was Kamala and Sleepy Joe.
He just said, I don't know if he knows what he said either.
Dude, when Trump was like, oh, I have no idea what he just said.
I don't know if he knows what he said either. Bro, that was so badass.
Bro, that was so badass.
But anyways, he just needs someone to point and put all the blame towards.
And, dude, let's face it, bro.
Powell, he is politically driven, but at least, like, he tells you what he's going to do beforehand.
Right?
And I'm kind of 50-50 on it, man. What do you think? Do you think
he's going to bring back Powell for a third term?
Or do you think he's going to
maybe even put in Basant in there?
I don't know. I don't think it matters
too much.
If he obviously did put someone who's
not kind of like a yes man,
but basically a yes man, it's
obviously going to be smoother to
get his policies
and everything going the way that he wants.
But I don't think it matters too much. I think it all
plays out in the end anyway.
Because there's just
other measures of doing the things
that they want to do. They've showed that they're
finding pockets of liquidity
in the banking sector if they want to juice this market.
So they've already given the toolkits that they can use
for injecting massive amounts of liquidity.
They raise the debt ceiling.
They have control of Congress and all that.
So I don't think it matters too much.
Because at the end of the day, even for this situation with rate cuts, okay, the economy was slowing, what's Powell going
to do? Is he just going to let it nuke and ruin his own reputation? No. So it kind of always works
out in the end. I don't think it's too important what happens there. But you mentioned something
about like a big correction this year and all that.
I thought that was a good point to touch on.
And I just shared in the nest yesterday's post.
If you guys just go on that and go to the BTC gold chart,
which I always show this because it's just so good.
And take note that gold has kind of been acting inversely to DXY because DXY has been unlocking global liquidity, essentially.
So the nuke that we had from the inauguration highs to 74K,
that was with a massive rally in DXY,
which basically tightened liquidity and yields also had spiked to, I think the 10-year
yield shot up to about 5%. So classic tightening of financial conditions, DXY rallying super hard
and yields going up higher. So there was a air pocket in the liquidity, in the global liquidity,
which basically was forecasting that we were
going to have a decent correction, right? We didn't know how deep it would be for BTC.
My kind of like approximate was around 85K. But then we had obviously the narrative of the tariffs,
which really added to the downside and soured sentiment, which pushed it kind of to my worst case scenario, which was 74k retesting
the prior high. So a massive DXY rally paired with a terrible narrative to sour sentiment to make
people sell even harder. And we had like a 30% correction, right? Now, we haven't had the dollar
rally whatsoever. It's been structurally weak below 100 where global
liquidity has been increasing this whole time. And we're expecting it to actually go lower from here
towards the 90s. So where do you see this big correction that's coming for risk markets? Because
I don't see it, right? If we do correct 20%, 30%, something like that, I would think that's only going to happen if we go super high first.
If we only go to 138, I'm not expecting a 30% drop. There's nothing that's indicating that
we're going to have some sort of crazy liquidity tightening in terms of the macro triggers.
So unless we go to like 182, which is just people have too much money and that unlocks a ton of supply to be dumped, right?
If I had a ton of BTC and I see it shoot up to 182,
and I'm a long-term holder from way back,
I'm going to feel super rich.
I'm likely going to sell some.
And that's a perpetual forward loop of,
whoa, all of these big holders are suddenly up a ton of money really quickly.
It's likely that's going to unlock a ton of supply and dump the chart of it. But other than that, it's not really looking like we're
going to have a massive correction. And that gold overlay is basically telling us that we impulse
towards 150 and then just form a range for the rest of the year. But that range, because we've
got alt season dynamics taking place, like Bitcoin dominance nuking and ETH BTC rallying super hard.
That's typically where, in deep price discovery levels,
that's typically where you have an alt-season unfold,
where BTC forms a range,
and the rest of the market goes absolutely nuts.
And that range is projected to last
all the way through this entire year,
all the way until January.
And it's seeming like a
very tight range. Why? Because DXY never rallied that hard. It stayed structurally weak below 100
this whole time with global liquidity going higher. And we've got more downwards pressure
on the dollar. So I don't see a big correction. I think this is where people screw up. And you
actually have tighter and tighter impulses to the upside where people are expecting these drops, but you're just getting priced out to the upside
the whole time and chasing because there's nothing indicating towards a big correction.
That does make sense, Donnie.
That does make sense.
And I hope we actually do get sort of the same consolidation that we saw from May to July, where, hey, Bitcoin ranges for six to seven weeks, but all coins still do well. Is that like what you're kind of foreseeing, brother, probably from like October to December?
Yeah, basically from the end of August or September
all the way through the rest of the year,
could even go into January.
And then if DXY does actually structurally break down again,
so loses 97, I think it goes towards the low 90s
and subsequently gold rallies towards 4K.
So what that would indicate, again,
that's more forward-looking data, right?
We're lagging gold in DXY by about three months on BTC's chart.
That means we're going to fulfill that rally to 150 range for the rest of the year,
rally again, right?
Following what gold will do if DXY loses 97 here, because it will rally towards 4K.
So you're basically having a big impulse impulse large range with alts going crazy another big impulse
and likely form a large distributive top after that as gold probably uh reaches its liquidity
point high for this cycle and uh btc catches a major bid from people rotating out of gold
into you know higher risk assets and then you know b BTC goes through that distributive range where
that's where you get the larger alt season or impulse in alts to basically wrap up the cycle.
Liquidity is topped. People are just rotating further and further out while the music is still
going. And then bang, that's where you get the big nuke. But that distributive range, we've had many examples or prior cycle examples of even just comparing it to the dotcom bubble.
Because I've given a lot of context as to why it could turn into an asset bubble.
They're kind of laying out this or they're engineering this landscape for crypto to do super well, attract the global capital.
for crypto to do super well, attract the global capital.
So it comes flooding into stablecoins and by proxy,
that stablecoin issuance funds their debt problem kind of indirectly, right?
That's kind of the whole game around the stablecoins thing.
You put in 100K into Tether, that's taken and bought,
and they purchase US treasuries with that.
You're kind of funding the US government debt, right?
So they're engineering this landscape for crypto to do super well
because obviously when things are pumping, retail gets excited.
Whole world comes flooding in.
That unlocks a ton of new stablecoin issuance.
So we're funding the US government debt,
a new mechanism that they just figured out.
And that's kind of why this whole thing is going
the way that it's going for crypto.
It's basically around that.
So those distributive tops,
if BTC goes above 200, 250K or whatever,
if we're just looking back to the dot-com bubble,
that distributive top for the S&P index,
it lasted like 700 days,
which I'm not saying that a distributive top is going to last
700 days and a distributive top is deviations of the high so you could go to 250 and then come back
down a little bit you know 265 come back down 280 come back down 300 come back down 310 come back
down that's very bullish right you're going to have alts going absolutely nuts if that happens
but that could last like three to six months before they put the hammer in and send it lower um and throughout that period
of the distributive top again you're forming a range it's a it's a distributive range that's
where you get alts going crazy so i'm seeing two big altcoin waves and obviously the cyclical top
range is going to be the most euphoric as people come flooding into a super inflated market so yeah it could last a long time it could last the whole of
26. now donnie i uh just made a personal post on my profile and i've gone ahead and put it up on
the nest for all the lovely here for all the
lovely people here in the audience so during that second wave that you're talking about donnie
which uh is probably going to happen sometime next year so we're going to have a lot of people
schedule their forbes interview uh that that's what's going to happen people are going to put
on uh their rally hats and uh schedule their forbes interview man 30 under 30 you're going to put on their rally hats and schedule their Forbes interview, man.
30 under 30.
You're going to see a lot of those people.
They're going to be called geniuses.
And, you know, man, it's going to be one hell of a cycle.
And I'm excited for the cycle that comes after that because, dude, these institutions are going to bid the bottom.
They're going to help the bottom. They're going to help the bottom get formed,
and what comes out of that bottom is going to be insane.
Not only are you going to have Trump, which is a V-reversal kind of guy,
you also have TradFi.
And, Donnie, you know what I'm thinking, right?
If we do have some sort of downturn,
it's probably going to be the same thing that we saw in Key 1.
That was a bear market.
And I think they basically gave you the playbook on bear markets as well.
It's going to be quick, snap of a finger, and it's back up to new all-time highs in less than two quarters.
less than two quarters and dude that call you made at the bottom was insane bro like you gave a
And that call you made at the bottom was insane, bro.
clean target uh whether it's myself you know i just said i think we're just going a lot higher
and this is the start of a new cycle um and i think i said like oh if bitcoin gets to new all-time
highs i'll shave my face and i and yeah and and then i also said on the Discord, on my channel, I'm like, if ETH hits 4K, I'm going to shave my face.
And I guess I have to do it now, dude.
I guess I'm going to have to do it.
And some people, like, when you make these, like, strange, not bets, but I guess events that occur due to price action right i guess it's a bet right
but i'm not placing any money um there are some people that will hold you to it bro they'll be
like you didn't shave your face what's wrong with you you're a horrible person and it's like, damn, like, like there I feel like crypto is a market where you get the extremities of of of human character.
Like if someone is happy, it's like times 100.
If they're sad, times 100.
If they're like really stoic, it's like times 100 where you where you kind of feel like, dude, does this guy have any emotion?
He's just like, yep, market's up.
Yep, market's down.
Yep, market's crabbing.
I like it, to be honest.
There are some crazy, crazy people, but it's crypto.
It's crypto, right?
Um, but, uh, yeah, I've gone up ahead and put it up on the nest guys as we speak, by the way, as we speak, um, sometimes, uh, myself or Donnie or whoever is, whoever else is up here.
But, yeah, I've gone up ahead and put it up on the nest.
Whenever we speak at times, we do put some things up on the nest.
So if you click the spaces tab and check above our profile pictures, we do put some stuff up there.
And that's really to kind of make this, this um stream given that it is just purely audio
a bit more of a visual component so it certainly does help if you're uh having trouble figuring
out what it is that's uh we're speaking about but uh yeah just feel free to look up on the nest and
engage with all the posts and all that stuff but uh Donnie, you have some stuff up on the Nest Men
if you want to talk about it real quick.
I just had it up there for new listeners or whatever
to kind of just save it and go over it in their own time
of how the US has basically engineered this landscape
and it kind of trickles into the global market
for,
you know, quote unquote, some sort of asset bubble to be formed this cycle.
So I would suggest go ahead and reading that.
I think I posted that in late May.
And as Bobby's saying, the playbook is unfolding and the setup is insane.
So they're trying to run 6.6% GDP to hold that
debt to GDP ratio constant. And obviously they will try and target higher growth than that.
They're deregulating the high growth sectors, AI, crypto. To achieve 6.6% GDP, they're going to need
a ton of stimulus. They're doing that. They've deregulated parts of the banking system they're going to do more of that they're getting rates down so everything is
unfolding and the center stage of the asset market coming out of the u.s side and blackrock
you know one of the biggest institutions in the world is crypto right they're marketing this thing
to the whole world so yeah you better buckle up because i
honestly think like once btc sharply gets above 130 i think that's where it all starts to go
pretty crazy and it's getting close to 119k which is the market structure level that i'm looking to
break above because you've got tons of liquidity resting from 119 to 123 for a very quick squeeze. And it's happened multiple times from the
bottom, these quick squeezes, bill liquidity, sharp rally higher. But as you get deeper and
deeper into price discovery, so does the FOMO gets greater and greater. So yeah, I think if you do get
above 119, it's going to be pretty swift to 130 and then above there btc uh dominance should
already be below 58 and i think the market starts to rip super hard across everything
hey guys if you guys have any questions at all whatsoever you guys can come on up
ask your questions and all that stuff um usually i like to do this towards the
tail end of uh our weekly wrap-up friday space so if you guys are listening right now in the audience
and want to come up talk shop or even ask any questions you guys can go ahead and open up the
spaces tab and then in your bottom left just uh hit the mic button and we'll bring you right on up.
But I will ask a number of things, given that this is X and not YouTube.
I ask you a couple of things, right?
One, please do not come here and try to show like an NFT or a platform or like a Web3 thing or whatever.
a platform or like a web three thing or whatever i really want this to just be purely global
market related just so we don't have that much uh noise and just more clean concise signal so
i do see a few requests so i'm gonna try to bring them up just one at a time and um yeah then we'll
we'll proceed after that but donnie is there anything else that
you want to discuss before i bring up um some people uh now i was just gonna ask how's the
viewership being on uh spaces has it been like around these numbers recently 550 ish yeah yeah
basically i i do notice that with some spaces though like they get botted. Like I think there might be some like bot going around, but this is the usual number.
But it's not like it's not like when things are going into price discovery, if that makes sense.
Like if you notice the numbers that were being hit like in november when everything was
rallying that was like a thousand plus right or during the bear market back in march that was like
a thousand plus but usually viewership has been like i would say if it's like chop like chop city
there's nothing going on it's usually like mid threes early threes like 320 to 380 something like
that um but when you start to have like expansion legs probably around these levels and then when
bitcoin's in price discovery usually like 700 or something like that but i'm not sure what the
numbers are going to look like after ETH gets into price discovery.
That is something that I'm personally excited for.
Because after ETH gets into price discovery, you're going to have Sol.
And there's not a single token right now in this market that is actually outside of BNB.
Outside of BNB, like majors that have actually
gone into price discovery for more than a week. Like Seoul has never actually put more than one
weekly close above its previous all-time high. So I think like once you see Seoul above 300 for
more than like two weeks, I think that'll be like a good um kind of a good gauge
on what viewership is going to be during a bull run a bull run right not a bull market
bull runs are usually like the expansion phase um where everything levels up higher
and trades um at elevated levels for a few weeks.
But dude, this thing is like, this chart on Bitcoin is really just mechanically different compared to previous cycles.
It really is.
And most of the market hasn't really broken its previous all-time high from last cycle.
And even if you look at others, like if you look at the chart that I posted up above on the nest dude, others BTC is below the 2018 high.
It is below the 2018 high.
Where others is right now, it's right now at .126.
The all-time high for others BTC in January of 2018 is at 0.31.
That is a near 150% rally that Others BTC has to do just to get above a previous, previous cycle all-time high. And Donnie, I just can't see a market where we don't at least have
one batch of QE just to stimulate the market, right? Because QE is actually pretty good. It
helps stimulate the market. More people can borrow capital at a less rate. I think mortgage rates right now are at like 7% to 9%, which is crazy.
It's actually insane. And the fact that we have rates almost twice the amount of where CPI is,
it's a tough economy out there for the average person. Out there in the labor market,
they're getting absolutely butchered. They're coarsened and the only thing that really helps that kind of
stuff out is some QE and that's just that's just the way it is man that is
just the way it is when there was a QE done in 2019 there were companies that
were able to raise their wages for their workers. Same thing during COVID.
They were able to raise wages for their workers because there was excess stimulus directly into the pockets of American citizens.
And QE helps with that.
And that's just the way money works right now, right?
And yes.
Go ahead, man.
I was just going to say that's just the system.
We're in a credit-based system.
You need liquidity at certain points
when yields are super tough to manage and things like that.
And yeah, it just helps aid the entire system.
So that's why they go through these cycles of being hawkish and dovish.
They basically just try and maintain their power to print money.
Because if they print endlessly, you run into hyperinflation, you lose the power to print, then you're cooked.
But as long as they manage that, they can always cyclically run the same playbook.
Yeah, real, dude. Real.
I'm going to go ahead and bring up luke again guys just uh just try to be mindful
of um of what i said and uh yeah i'm gonna go ahead and bring up luke first actually i think
i'll bring up um i'll bring up luke first yeah i'll bring up his brother yeah he's uh he's been
up here before so i'm gonna start with him hey luke what's up he's a up here before, so I'm going to start with him. Hey, Luke, what's up?
He's a Bucky enthusiast.
Are you serious?
You like that Bucky meme with the Bitcoin?
Yeah, he's a Bucky enthusiast, bro.
I love this. This guy's amazing.
Someone needs to make a Bucky comic book.
make a bucky comic book i swear um hey donnie what are your thoughts on um the ism not cracking
I swear.
above 50 do you think that's a lagging um tariff situation because ism's so laggy that
you think that's because of the tariff um debacle just coming through that now because yeah i don't i don't see a world where
ism doesn't go well above 50 with the amount of capex they're doing in this and building data
centers and all this stuff like the amount of money they're spending on that is pretty crazy
like what are your thoughts on that?
Yeah, I think it's a multitude of that and just having rates up too high for too long.
So, but the good thing is the remedy to that
is obviously rates coming down,
which I think with the growth sectors like AI,
how you're saying,
you're basically going to have an uptick in ISM over the next
few months or whatever, while rates are coming down, which is just insanely bullish for risk
markets. That's literally turbo up into the right for risk markets. So it was initially bad,
seeing those economic numbers and all of that, and the ism downtick but the market is just sniffing out the remedy so it's not bad enough to the point where i think uh jerome comes in and
he uh his stance on lowering rates is from like everything is cooked because then his reputation
would look terrible right he was late again and he cooked the economy so yeah that's basically what
do you think about everyone's saying like i i've just been
looking at vick seasonality and s&p seasonality usually the next couple months are kind of weak
summer doldrums type of thing do you think we we rip one more time and then we have that chop kind of uh before the end of the year boost or yeah what
are your thoughts on that because i i was feeling like i mean we're kind of we're breaking out here
we're bull flag i see bull flags everywhere so what do you think we have this rip up this month into that zone or,
because I'm kind of torn between either we rip up soon or we're going to chop
like last year and then rip into end of year.
And then potentially go into 26 because the,
the way this cycle is playing out after the fastest Titan cycle ever, it's just been so long for them to start easing again.
I just don't see the market just pico topping out this year and then wait a couple of years.
I don't see that.
No, no.
And that's not the Trump admin's plans either.
And they're going to do absolutely whatever it takes to fulfill their plans,
their policies and everything.
But no, from a technical perspective, unlike BTC,
if you're trying to look for a short-term direction,
to me, you just keep breaking market structure locally to bullish
and leaving demand zones below.
So I think it's more likely that you get above 119K
than revisit 112K,
which was the sentiment low of the ISM downtick
and the bad economic data, right?
So I don't see how you could have a bigger fear climax than that.
And that took BTC down to 112.
Plus now the chart.
I feel like that was the panic.
It was like nuclear submarines, job market, and then something else.
And we went down like 2%.
Exactly.
It's the same as the World War III shakeout.
It's like people were looking for a roll to 93K.
And they were saying like, I think the funniest one that I heard was we had equal highs at 110. So that unlocks 93k. And according to what, right? That was the fear climax at 93k. How are you going to revisit that without having a higher climax than that in terms of fear? There was nothing left like in front of BTC to go lower there in terms of some sort of bearish catalyst.
So we just had the same sort of thing.
And if you see one of the charts that I posted in the nest where it's basically just the gold and BTC overlay,
it's very similar to that gold correction where as a sentiment extreme to the downside for gold,
it was the April tariff
announcement, right? And then gold quickly rallied after that. So it's kind of very similar. We just
had a fear climax again. And now we're pricing in the resolution to that, which is just rates
coming down. And the technical setup is extremely clean. So the invalidation for revisiting 112 is
basically get above 119 because then you're going straight to 130. and the chart looks locally strong to get
above 119. so i reckon it happens in august like it's already we've still got three weeks left of
august um i think it plays out in august if not like literally next week what are you what are you looking at for um the cycle extending are you
are you thinking like another rip up in gold also the end of the year and then a breakdown of the
dollar right like a third a further breakdown of the dollar would would be more easing move index
lower or whatever they're pretty similar but those things going lower
again into the end of the year is that what you're thinking too yeah yeah and that basically
confirms as soon as dxy loses 97 again yeah i mean upwards pressure on gold uh btc still fulfills
the gold rally,
which was $3,500 for gold.
We're still like halfway through that.
And that's projecting like $150-ish for BTC
and then a big range for the rest of the year.
And then obviously if DXY goes lower and gold goes higher,
then that's more forward-looking data for BTC
to also fulfill the same thing.
Also, I saw another chart someone was posting
about this kind of channel that the DXY has been in for...
70 years.
Yeah, or no, longer.
Yeah.
Like since before the dot-com bubble.
Yeah.
Because I feel like, I don't know,
like the last five years,
the dollar has been very strong for a long time.
It hasn't really structurally broken down.
I'm not sure.
Didn't we have a massive, huge breakdown?
Was it the 80s or was it post.com?
It was during the .com.
It was during the .com top.
It was like during the .com top.
It was like the 80s or something?
Yeah, we had down to the 70s. So we had the dot-com peak of 120 on the dollar. So we had the dot-com peak of 120 on the dollar.
And then you had like kind of like a diagonal trend line where you lost 104 and then just puked all the way to 70.
But that's where gold actually had one of its craziest bull runs.
And in that bull run, you had the gold etf in 2003 which basically
went in like a eight-year uh bull run with obviously corrections in between some of them as
high as 40 but it was up into the right for that whole time uh all the way until about
2012 i think yeah i mean that's that's the It's like, what happens with Bitcoin in this world
where we have some structurally long dollar bear market
for whatever?
That's the whole point.
That's the whole point of why,
I don't know, people that are calling like a cycle top here,
they're calling for another DXY high,
but I just don't see what's going to put in a higher high than the COVID high of 115
when it was such a big global event. So I don't see it. And there's just so much weighing down
on the dollar with just persistent monetary inflation. And that's kind of the landscape
that's been formed. And yeah, you're very close to losing another channel to the downside,
where you could have a structurally weak dollar
for the next 5-10 years.
And obviously that's going to be positive for BTC.
And like I just said, for that 2000 to 2012 period
where gold went on a monster bull run with the ETF in 2003,
well, now we've got the Bitcoin ETF
with a structurally weak dollar over the next 5-10 years.
Maybe it's the same playbook. Maybe Bitcoin goes to mill who knows right we'll play it like you know week
by week quarter by quarter year by year but you got to be uh you know open to these ideas well
also the other thing is like this is all coming to a head at the same time as this ai super trend
coming to a head at the same time as this AI super trend.
So you have two super trends,
like Bitcoin is whatever,
one of the most meaningful technologies of all time.
And then you have this AI thing
that's going to change everyone's lives
with robotics and all that type of stuff.
So it feels like it's in the beginning
of this super trend the next whatever five to ten years yeah and i've made so many threads on like this cycle and why it's
different and everything if you go on my highlights if you guys are listening and you're interested or
whatever tons of threads and one of them was just about how i think that like most of the crypto
market that's aware of the market since the last three cycles, they're pretty conditioned to expect an 80% nuke, but they're not conditioned or not prepared
for the opposite of that, which is actually BTC pricing out, you know, basically the entire world
to the upside, where you don't have those 80% corrections, and you just keep having this
institutional bid absorbing downside you're now
seeing 401k unlocks coming into this sector which again that dampens downside volatility because
they just have a perma bid into the chart um where you can see like that from the bottom of 15k all
the way till now it's just been this incremental stair step of consistent shakeouts, unlocking, you know, supply from weak hands,
institutional bid coming in, you're at 120k before a macro expansion in terms of like the liquidity
side of things. I don't know, it's, it's seeming like the opposite playbook where you don't see a
70% nuke unless you shoot up to like 300k plus. But even then, let's say you go to 300k 350 400 and you have a 70 nuke from you
know whatever treasury company is getting liquidated uh all that kind of stuff you're still
going to be you know around 140k btc so that's a that's an expensive btc if that's a bear market
bottom uh and you know higher highs follow that so i'll actually put that in the nest of what I wrote. I just don't, I don't see, unless there's some catastrophic short-term credit event
that brings it down super fast and then they have to jump in.
Like, just that, if you, when you look at the tariff tantrum day
and the Qs dropped 26%, Bitcoin was down 32%,
what would have to happen to get Bitcoin down 60, 70%?
You would need the queues down 60%.
Exactly.
You need the queues down 50%.
So, okay, you can bet on 2008 crisis or something like that, but those events don't happen.
but those are those events don't happen then there's there's been there's been two events
two or three in american history and like okay you're gonna bet on that
you guys remember um in early 23 people were saying how there's going to be a chips crisis
and how unemployment is about to go crazy and it's
like bro you understand that the assets that you have right now if that were to happen would would
capitulate another 50 and you're basically wishing for your for your personal circle to be unemployed
listen i have i have experienced some of that uh talk way back then and i don't think that's going to
happen for for a while man you remember that luke some of those gold bug spaces what peter shift
peter shift comes out every time bitcoin's down like five percent and gold's up like two
yeah hey uh i i didn't even uh mention iron, but I saw Mike Alfred requesting.
Mike, what's going on, man?
Great to have you.
I hope you saw my comment under your post yesterday for you to come on the show.
But great to have you on, man.
What are your thoughts, man?
Highest weekly close ever for the Qs.
ETH breaking out above 4K.
ETH BTC rallying, man.
What are your thoughts on the market shaping up here during
going into well i was sick all week guys so that's why i've been less active uh i guess
my burning it on both ends finally caught up to me you can't run 50 or 60 miles a week in the
mountains stay up all night drinking really good wine and eating steak, and then expect
to not get a cold eventually.
But I basically came up because somebody said super trend, and that was like my summon,
right?
Like somebody said AI and Bitcoin mega trend, super trend.
Yeah, that's what I said.
I'm like, how can you be bearish right now?
Yeah, and I've been talking about this. Anybody who knows me, anybody who's been in a space with me in the last couple of years knows that I've been banging that drum as hard as possible.
The convergence at the energy infrastructure layer and the application layer between Bitcoin and AI. It's not just that they're two super trends on their own, it's that they completely converge and are synergistic with each other, such that the build-out of Bitcoin
infrastructure actually is bootstrapping the build-out of AI infrastructure and vice versa
now. And they're competing for electrons at the energy layer in a way that makes both spaces more
competitive and more valuable. And then at the application layer,
you're literally going to have AI agents
trading with each other autonomously using Bitcoin.
So it's this beautiful synergistic thing
that comes all the way up from the ground level,
the electron level,
up to the most sophisticated AGI applications,
some that we don't even know about yet.
And separately, even without the interplay between the two,
they're both probably two of the most important megatrends of all of human history.
There were literally people who didn't want to use books initially because it was too scary.
And then there were people that didn't want to use fire because it was too scary.
And then there were people that didn't want to use electricity.
They didn't want to use electricity. They didn't want to use, you know, an automated loom they wanted to hand.
So they didn't want to use air travel or the steam engine, right?
And they didn't want to use the internet.
People literally said, I don't need to use social media.
And I think AI and Bitcoin are bigger.
Like, if somebody tells you that they don't want to use Bitcoin, it's like, great, you're the idiot 25 years ago who ignored the internet,
except this might actually be bigger.
So IRON literally sits at the intersection
of these two megatrends in kind of a perfect way
because they're just taking large-scale grid-connected power
with the most efficient infrastructure
and converting it into computing resources
that help scale both of those technology trends.
And you can literally do both in the same building.
And to the extent at which you do both in the same building,
you can get really interesting interplay at the site level
where you can curtail part of the time, the Bitcoin, right?
You can curtail your energy usage
during periods of high power prices,
which you can't do as easily
with AI. So I think iron is really well positioned. I mean, look, I'm highly biased.
Everybody knows that. I've been on the board since October of 21, I think the month before the IPO.
Stock goes public at the highs of the last cycle, you know, $28 a share. It was actually a price
that I told the team internally and the board that we should stick to.
JP Morgan wanted us to bring it down a buck or two bucks to make sure it went out.
I don't think it's going to matter.
I think it's pretty binary.
Basically, it's going to get out or it won't.
And if it gets out, every dollar represented, I think, 8.2 approximately or 8.4 million of additional inbound cash for the company at the IPO.
In retrospect, I'm glad we did it.
Unfortunately, we IPO'd right into the huge downturn in 2022.
The good news, though, is the company is built by a team full of warriors that will never stop fighting.
is built by a team full of warriors that will never stop fighting.
And it just kept building right through the bottom of the cycle until now,
where for the last couple of years,
people didn't understand quite what they were doing,
acquiring these large, large sites,
bringing in enough capital to actually build them out in a wholly owned,
verticalized way,
which most other folks haven't been able to accomplish.
They've done it piecemeal, some of them. People who actually own infrastructure, they've
acquired sites where they're not uniform, they weren't built by the same
team. Iron sites are following the same playbook.
What the company will do at the next site
is similar to what they did at the last site, and they have 100% control over
the outcomes in the sense that they're driving the process.
I like what I'm seeing, right?
Like, I just think strategically from a capital allocation standpoint, I won't toot my own horn too much,
but certainly I've tried to give the team the right guidance and the right way of thinking about some of the more important decisions at different
inflection points. And look at the results. They've gone from basically one of the smallest
miners entering this cycle to now probably one of the largest from a realized hash rate standpoint
last month in the world. And industry-leading net economics, right, when you look at the blended
industry-leading net economics, right, when you look at the blended machine efficiency,
power costs, scale, right?
Like, a funny thing is I don't even think that's where a lot of the value creation necessarily
has to come from over the next few years, right?
I think there's a lot of value creation that can come from just doing AI HPC at scale.
Instead of just punting and letting someone else take all the juiciest economics from
doing that, the company's decided to bifurcate its strategy between a kind of co-location, powered shell
type of model where you bring in an outside tenant, right? And combined with running the
company's own neocloud internally to test out actually plugging in our own GPUs and monetizing
it directly. So I think the optionality there is pretty great. I put a tweet in the nest, actually, that I think I woke up this morning at like 5.30
in the morning, and it just really hit me that the fundamental difference of opinion right now
about this cycle is between people that are entirely rigid, rules-based, technicals-based. I call them kid analysts, but that's just a joke, right?
It's just a model.
It's a paradigm.
It's a persona, right, that I've kind of come up with
that represents somebody who just thinks in black and white,
very technical.
And I don't dismiss that anymore because sometimes those people are right.
Those people are calling for a top in Bitcoin in the next kind of 60, 90, 120 days. I just think
if you look at the preponderance of evidence, it is very unlikely that that happens. I won't rule
it out. And again, price action can dictate this to some degree. And this is where I do agree with
more of the quant and technical people. If Bitcoin were to take off tomorrow and run straight to $250,000 in the next 30 days,
then I might be more open to that opinion.
But if Bitcoin continues to stair-step in a very similar way with no sentiment extremes,
with very little retail interest, with very little exuberance,
with a ton of catalysts that have not come in.
Think of all these cards that still need to be flipped over,
which I see cards going out three, six, nine months
across Bitcoin itself, the government,
treasury companies, the rate cycle,
AI CapEx and how that converges
with Bitcoin-related CapEx.
There's so many cards that need to flip
over it'd be very unlikely that you'd see like some sort of major top in an environment where
everybody's calling for a top and there's literally dozens of catalysts that haven't
actually happened yet so i'm leaning towards an edge for a long an elongated cycle as donnie is
and i do think the most likely area for that is actually 2026,
not 2025,
but,
but I'll be watching over the next call 30 to 60 days.
I do expect to move towards one 30 to one 50,
by mid September.
Like I think by mid September,
if we're not in the one 30,
one 50 range,
I'll be very surprised.
may mean that we still need to go there in october november but i think it's more
likely than not that we're there and then from there it's just do we see any signs of exuberant
whatsoever and again i'm not seeing them yet so maybe that changes over the next 60 days but right
now it still feels like it's kind of business as usual bitcoin's just quietly grinding its way
higher and and so i do think you know we could be looking at an elongated cycle.
And in an edge case, we could be looking at like a late 26 or even 27 top where it's
greatly elongated because maybe Powell manages to hold rates.
Emmanuel is unlikely now, but let's say Powell manages to keep his job and not get pushed
out and just as a sign of defiance holds rates flat again, September, everyone will be pissed at him and everyone will be
calling for his head.
But he might be doing us all a favor and actually elongating the cycle further because we all
know rates are coming down 100, 200, 300 bips in Trump's term.
And so the question is just when does that process start?
How aggressive is it? And does it juice the already juiced environment with the weaker dollar and yields kind of softening and global M2 ripping?
And Ethereum is now saying basically that everything's going to rip for the rest of the year.
So that was a key marker for me.
I wanted to see Ethereum break out.
If it can go to 4,20000 5k 6k something like that like
then it's written in stone and i think we don't have much to worry about
so there's just some some of the things that are on my mind right now
and mike people keep selling the bottom like on this dip 212k and every other like major pivot point on the bitcoin chart big big
big players are being convinced to sell the bottom i think arthur hayes literally sold the bottom
like he made a post someone tracked his like wallet selling like pepe e uh and other stuff
and he was basically projecting 3k eth and and like Pepe going to nuke.
And then that was the bottom.
It was like a very clean technical bottom on the Bitcoin chart.
And I posted it literally at 112
saying this is a bullish PO3.
You start getting back in above that range.
You're going to start rallying towards 119k.
And above 119k is thick amounts of liquidity,
which get you to 130 in the blink of an eye.
So the line in the sand for those people
and people who are unsure is 119.
And I think, like you said,
if you get above 119 now,
I think by mid-September,
BTC should be within that range of 138 to 182.
And I hope it's 182.
Yeah, I just posted two tweets in the NAS, one from six days ago, basically saying, you
know, people are scared, you can smell the fear, and all we're doing is casually retesting
the 112 to 110 area from above before we head to 146.
Hopefully by now people have recognized that's probably factually accurate.
And I posted another
one right before that that basically says, don't forget how confident the traders have been
over the last week that the next move is lower. And this is a recurring theme this entire cycle,
literally from January of 23. The biggest mistake, like the most critical mistake and
why I harp on buy and hold, why i harp on buy and hold why i harp on
long bias why i harp on full cycle mentality is that the reason why most people are not wealthy
is they don't have the persistence to just stick with their fucking positions all the way through
the cycle and i love x because like it's real-time source of information i actually use it as a
reverse sentiment indicator primarily honestly the highest value is I follow all these traders on purpose,
not because I think they're smart,
but because they're going to tell me exactly when to go the other way,
which has been a better indicator for me than literally anything else over time.
And so I just watch them, and every time they get super bearish, I buy more.
And every time they get exuberant, I trim a little bit, right,
whatever we're talking about.
And with the exception of Bitcoin itself, core Bitcoin holdings, I don buy more. And every time they get exuberant, I trim a little bit, right? Whatever we're talking about. And with the exception of Bitcoin itself, core Bitcoin holdings, I don't sell.
But anything that's around the ecosystem otherwise is fair game for that.
And basically, if you can use X without letting it affect your positioning, great.
But unfortunately, what I've seen over and over again is people get whipsawed by the
Arthur Hayes of the world and these famous traders with 100,000, 200,000, 500,000 followers
because they're constantly posting charts for engagement like every week telling you that
things are going to go down. And I think it's really hard psychologically to see these charts,
to see these well-known traders posting, especially when they do it all at the same time,
which they did at 25K and they did at 58K
and they did at 74K.
They were doing it again last week at 110, 112K,
111.8, whatever it was, right?
They tend to get bearish right at support.
And the point is, like with Bitcoin you you just buy it over long periods
of time and hold it because it accrues purchasing power organically like you don't have to trade it
to make money in fact if you trade it net of taxes transaction fees and the risk of being wrong which
everybody will be including arthur hayes and everyone else um means that over the full cycle
you almost certainly lose money to somebody who just naively allocates to Bitcoin at the moments of maximum fear and then sticks with it.
And so I think that's going to continue to be the case.
And I think the risk here going forward is going to continue to be that.
But I think the biggest risk that, like I outlined in the tweet I posted in the last two or three tweets ago,
was that people are going to listen to the kid analysts who are going to be
like oh this price action is too aggressive we're at 150 too fast you should sell and that's what's
going to cause it to go to 250 because there's going to be a bunch of people who sell at 150
expecting it to go down and when it doesn't go down they're going to realize holy shit i got
to chase it's the it's going to be the chasing after people sell prematurely that causes the actual blow off top.
So until you see people that sold too soon, like trying to talk the price down and like desperately trying to get it to come down, like it's too soon.
Like there's not going to be any top until a bunch of people are chasing and we're still not there yet.
We don't even have mass market interest in the asset class, right?
Like it seems
like we should we live in a echo chamber on here of people that are really clued in and are paying
attention every day and a lot of people that don't have full-time jobs that require them to look at
other things like we can just look at asset prices we can look at the market structure we can look at
what's happening in the space and tie it all together and understand the narratives and the reality most people aren't doing that they're just occasionally they like
get a social media post every few weeks that says bitcoin went up and then then a few weeks later
bitcoin went down and so they're only being primed to look at it at these snapshots moments in time
that are completely irrelevant and they're completely random so they're not seeing as the
continuous stream like the whole movie it's like they're seeing three frames of the movie across three months and and
you and i are seeing 24 7 a whole bunch of frames which again as i said cuts two ways a it means
you're much more aware of what's happening but b it means makes you much more prone psychologically
to making mistakes if you don't have an ironclad process for basically
blocking out unnecessary noise in your process. So like for me, like I read all the tweets from
the traders. I never, ever, ever make like trades on Bitcoin based on what they do because every
single time historically there's been wrong. Literally every single cell, which I've seen
thousands of cells and thousands of cell recommendations and thousands of cell
signals just this cycle every single one with the exceptions of the ones that which was like two
people gave between 121 and 123 on like one night a few weeks ago have been wrong right and we're
heading back to that area we'll probably retake that area in the next couple weeks and then we'll be at 130 140 150
and at some point various points over the next few months like every single sell signal in the
history of bitcoin will end up being wrong over the long arc of time which again is the only arc
of time that matters to me because i think bitcoin is an asset you hold for 20 or 30 years not
an asset that you trade based on like five-minute or 10-minute chart
or an RSI over two weeks or whatever.
Who cares?
I just don't think that stuff matters.
So look, Donnie, I know you're going to trade more tactically than I am,
and that's fine, no problem.
But I'm going to continue to probably stay long,
and I won't be trimming much in the ecosystem until I see real exuberance, and I just don't think we're there yet.
Hey, Mike, your Trad5 friends, are they very skeptical about this whole thing?
Or what's consensus in the outside world?
So it's changed a lot right and part of it is you got people like me that 10 15 years ago a lot of people like in
tradfire would have thought it was just a traditional executive right who was running a
data company selling data to blackrock and pimco and t-ro and fidelity and mucking it up with those
execs and like getting to know them and becoming friends with them.
And then I started posting about Bitcoin on LinkedIn
like five or six years ago.
And initially they're probably like,
what the fuck, this guy's gone off the deep end.
And now Donald Trump is literally trying to shove it
into 401k plans.
And by the way, I know a lot more about
what happens in 401k plans than most people
because I literally ran a company for eight years
that sold data to Fidelity and and t-row right i'm still friends personally with the ceo of
empower and texted with him last week right like i'm close to that space like it doesn't matter
what executive order is put through like that space is going to be slow to adopt bitcoin i mean
even fidelity right like was mining bitcoin 10 years ago but they didn't
even allow it in foreign k plans until like a year or two ago right and so you you could try to shove
it in there all you want um but some of these trad fi areas are just resistant to change they
will change but like for example daily record keeping is still the standard for for mutual
fund-based uh foreign k plans like they haven't been able to get ETFs in there because the idea is you only need to know
the valuation once a day.
Someone puts in their order in the morning and it trades based on the nav of the fund
at the end of the day.
That's been the standard since the 1970s for how the mutual fund daily recordkeeping
system works in the 4K system.
It's not designed for people to buy buy a 24 7 liquid asset or even
an etf um and so while i do think bitcoin will be pervasive in 401k plans i think it'll take longer
um than people think and so i think look the the general view has changed the average person in
trattify is no longer willing to look dumb? Like they were willing five years ago to look like full-on idiots and just come out saying
that Bitcoin's stupid and it's a bubble and it's a tulip.
There are too many people like Rick Edelman, right?
There are too many hedge fund managers that they know and respect.
There are too many macro guys that they know are billionaires that are worth more than
them.
And so unless you're worth more than the person talking about Bitcoin,
at some point you have to ask yourself, like, well, maybe I'm wrong, right?
And I think even the most arrogant person in TradFi
has recognized that maybe they missed something.
So I think that the Overton window has shifted,
center of gravity has shifted.
Most people are still not embracing it actively which i think
is quite uh bullish but i but i find far fewer people who are willing to just come out on a call
and say well i think bitcoin's a scam like it's only used by criminals like jamie diamond might
still be willing he's rich enough and and sort of old enough right and like in some ways irrelevant
enough that like he can keep saying dumb stuff about Bitcoin,
but his company is actually,
JP Morgan is actually doing stuff in Bitcoin.
It's one of those ironies,
those great ironies in TradFi
that you've been around long enough
and you see it everywhere.
So look, I want people to remain ignorant to some degree.
I go out of my way to try to educate people
that are open to it
and I post a lot of pro-Bitcoin,
Bitcoin bull posting stuff and I've been doing it for a long time um and it's made a difference with
like people that are in my immediate circle um i think there are a bunch of concentric circles
in tradfire where like everybody knows somebody now that's working in the space everybody knows
somebody they respect who believes in the space and i think that over time like changes hearts and minds even if um you know for those of us who've been in the space. And I think that over time, like changes hearts and minds, even if, you know, for those of
us who've been in the space, like we just want to understand it fundamentally.
A lot of people are more persuaded by social proof and price, which is fine, right?
We're all social animals.
Most people don't have deep conviction when it's contrarian.
They're only willing to have conviction when it's popular.
And that's
why most people are not like, you know, hugely successful long-term investors, right? And she
would be better off indexing and hiring a financial advisor and working a nine to five, like
that works for most people. If you follow the rules, you will retire by 65. You may not have
an exceptional life. You may not do anything like truly unique or interesting, but that's okay.
life you may not do anything like truly unique or interesting but that's okay right like just
sort of like humanity there's a reason why the average human is average right like if you do
average things you'll end up average and the average mentality in trad fi is that bitcoin's
fine now the average mentality is still not bitcoin is great but the delta between the
average thought and where we're headed over five or 10 years is the opportunity.
Yeah, I mean, to your point, that's the upside, right?
I listen to Trapch by like or whatever MSNBC and all that stuff all the time.
And all the people are so skeptical about it.
Like they're not even to the point where they would feel comfortable putting 3% of a portfolio like people aren't even to two three four percent i mean that's that's the upside right
luke some people don't even know that uh bitcoin and eath have uh exchange traded funds
that are live they don't even know that they don't know i don't think
most people don't know what etfs are yeah yeah um they and they and the funny thing is they use
robin hood to trade like weird pink sheet stocks but they don't want to buy hood they didn't even
know hood was even tradable and those kind of people are the ones that usually come out of the woodshed when
xrp is uh close to all-time highs so it's gonna take some time i think probably in like 10 15
years as crazy as that sounds that's when you'll have like actual retail staying locked in rather
than these like weird cycles of in and out i mean just take a look at the nasdaq
right nasdaq was formed in 1973 or 1975 right around there pardon me if i'm wrong i know it's
one of those two years and it took consumers post.com crash to actually take this seriously
and think hey there's actually something here it's worse than that there are literally people who didn't start buying the queues until
like two three years ago they they hated they hated google and microsoft and meta and amazon
and apple and didn't understand them as recently as like 2020 2022 right like they went down in
2022 nvidia went down in 2022 and they only showed up in the last few years because they appear safe
like some of my uncles who are like 60s 70s didn't invest in any of this shit and they showed up two three years
ago now they're convinced everyone should own the queues like where were they 15 20 years ago when
this stuff was really cheap like nobody wanted this stuff 15 20 years ago bitcoin is literally
like just the same thing 20 years later, but maybe bigger.
And AI, right, is sort of already converged with traditional tech.
And so you're getting that exposure via these hyperscalers in a way that you're not getting with Bitcoin, right?
Like microstrategy isn't even in the S&P 500.
It's wild. Mike, has there ever been an asset outside of Bitcoin that you know of where the people that are convicted on it are basically like 100% allocated and the rest of the people are not even 1%?
Has there ever been anything like that?
been anything like that not not in a mass market way because there's there's never been before the
internet there's never been the distribution capabilities for any large enough global global
group of people to own effectively the same thing think of how regionalized even now our markets are
like alibaba and amazon are global companies but it's but it's been very hard for Chinese people to own Amazon, for example.
It has been harder until recently.
Some of the brokerages have made it easier to buy stocks in foreign currencies.
But for a long time, that was a difficult proposition, even for sophisticated U.S. investors.
And so many of these things are not global.
They're truly regionalized, even like truly global companies. Um, and Bitcoin's the first asset that really crosses over. Like
the analogy I'd use is like, you know, you think about someone buying a beachfront property in
California, like that's a trophy asset. If you buy a beachfront house in Laguna,
right. Or Del Mar for $25 million. But like, there's only one of those. It's not fungible.
And so I could sell it to one guy in China, but everybody in China can't buy it. Right. Whereas
Bitcoin is, is actually as scarce in some ways, because you consider the fact that everybody can
access it, but it's not as unique as a single property on a single cliffside edge in Laguna.
It's a single property on a single cliffside edge in Laguna.
And so I think when you think about it in that construct,
it makes more sense that Bitcoin is truly unique in all of human history
because there was never a way before the Internet to distribute anything
the way we've distributed these technology products.
So the reason why Apple and Amazon and meta and like all these companies
are so big um is they were able to use the internet as distribution rails for their products
which allows you to basically like instantly distribute them at a very low marginal cost
all other forms of money up until the sort of physical world's been deconstructed were really expensive to distribute as were all other physical world products before kind of the digital world was
created a lot of that's happened in the last 50 years and like human history goes back over 10
000 years and so people just underestimate like the steepness of the curve of what's happening
right now what you have right now is these overlapping super cycles
that are built on each other that are literally creating exponential curves on top of each other
that only could exist if the previous exponential curve existed so they're all like super technology
stacks built on top of each other such that like we're starting to get to the level of insane
velocity where like it's really hard for the human mind to understand it because it's not linear at all.
It's not just exponential even.
It's like exponential squared, right?
And so that's where we are.
And so it's hard for the average person to see that, which is why they're completely blindsided.
They still think they should go get a four-year degree from a traditional institution study business
administration and get an entry-level accounting job and the world is fucking leaving them
behind like within five or seven years those jobs will basically not exist in the way we think of
them today um and so the question is like how will people respond to that like educational institutions
are going to need to adapt right they're going to need to
like change their curriculum so that people who graduate from a four-year school actually have
something to do right they're going to need to like work on robots or use ai directly or write
code for ai or use ai to write code on ai work in bitcoin etc but like just trying to get an entry
level law or accounting job is not going to work because all of that work is going to be outsourced to somebody, some service they can pay $20 a month for, right?
They just run on a server and literally does five or ten entry-level jobs.
So how are those people going to get trained up?
I just don't think people understand, right? That's like the next three to five years. Then you look five or ten years out, like swarms of robots running on a central AGI brain are going to disintermediate a lot of white collar
work. And so people are doing... I mean, it's UBI, right? We're going to have to have UBI at some
point. Possibly. Or the entire structure of our kind of wage-based capitalist society is going to
have to morph in some more material way again i
don't know what that looks like but it could be quite cataclysmic if um the powers that be right
the educational institutions if um you know the average person doesn't learn right like i think
what's gonna here's what i think is gonna happen like in the next couple years all of a sudden
people graduating from even harvard Harvard and Stanford that like aren't
working in AI that want to take a more traditional path.
All of a sudden the administrators are going to notice that the unemployment rate for recent
college grads, even from so-called best schools in the country is starting to go up quite
significantly.
And that's going to force, it's going to serve as a forcing function for
those institutions to completely like rethink like what they're actually teaching because as
much as i enjoyed studying latin american history um that's not going to actually help people most
people it's not going to help them survive in the age of like AGI where there's going to be like
computers that are smarter than all of the humans on the planet collectively.
And I think that's, that's going to, it's a really hard concept again,
because of how exponential it is.
It's really hard concept for normal people to understand.
And we could talk about it in a space and it could sound really scary,
but like no one's going to do anything about it until they're personally impacted and i think that process is gonna gonna happen gradually and
then all of a sudden it's going to be obvious i think this is a great place to wrap up the show
donny is there anything else that you want to add man before i uh close up shop here
no you can't go after that, man. That was a cook.
Yeah, we're going to end it off with a banger, man.
Mike, I want to thank you for coming on.
Donnie, great show as always.
Luke, thank you for coming up.
Guys, if this is your first time tuning in,
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And at the bottom, you'll see that I've left a pretty nice discount for you all which is 50
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But in case you guys want to catch some of my personal streams on weekends, you guys can go on ahead and follow me on Twitch.
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But, yeah, guys, that is it from me.
Thank you, Donnie, once again for joining me, brother.
Shout out to you, man.
You're almost at 20K followers.
And I would reckon probably 50K by the end of the year, man.
Probably 100 by the summer.
And shout out to Mike as well for joining us and talking shop.
God bless you all, truly.
I don't take this for granted.
And shout out to my Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ,
for allowing me another day of health to talk markets with all of you.
So with that being said, take care, guys.
Have a good rest of your Friday or Saturday,
and we'll see you all on Monday.
Take care, y'all. Thank you. Oh okay
okay so Oh Oh so
okay Oh Oh Oh Thank you.
