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Market Talk- $ETH HITS NEW ALL TIME HIGHS! Alt season loading!? LFG!!
Recorded: Aug. 22, 2025 Duration: 1:55:40Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. you I'm going to go ahead and get the rest of the room. music Hey you Oh I'm going to go. You can't wait I Yeah I'm so
I'm going to go. Music Wow down
with you down
stop
don't
while you're right
you I'm dying in the rain.
I'm dying in the rain.
I'm dying in the rain.
I'm dying in the rain. How is it feel if you're on it? How is the world alone?
What's the heavy sky?
What's the heavy sky?
Oh my gosh!
Guys, welcome back. Welcome back to Market Talk brought to you by BB.
What a historic day.
Who could have foreseen this insane bounce right after Jackson Hole?
Who could have foreseen?
could have foreseen who could have foreseen exactly as predicted on the show by myself
Who could have foreseen?
and Donnie Jackson hole I said this we said this on previous shows earlier in the week
over the last few years Jackson hole is what sets that higher low before the rest of the market trends going into the end of the year and
i'm gonna go ahead and quote what powell said which is honestly insane the playbook is insane
it's unfolding before our very eyes and powell said this which i think if you guys look at your bags today, they're probably up quite a bit from the lows that occurred over the last 48 hours between Thursday and Wednesday.
Powell said this, and I quote when it came to his yap on monetary policy direction.
He said, policy direction he said the time has come for policy to adjust the direction of travel is clear
and the timing pace of rate cuts will depend on blah blah blah incoming data evolving outlook
balance of risks all that stuff and he's basically saying that they're they're going to shift to
neutral and if you guys take a look at the second half of 2017 it's really the
only time period that i can circle uh back to because um all we have that's a bit earlier than
that is uh zerp and qe which occurred during uh a pandemic so i'm not really going to count that
but uh nonetheless when the fed shifted from a hawkish tone to a
neutral stance btc dominance absolutely rugged and uh ethereum the first one out of the gate
sole pushing up against 200 and uh man this is honestly insane you, today in the morning, I got a text message from a fellow individual who on days
texts me whenever the market isn't up. And he's like, melt up, ha ha, melt up, ha ha, melt up,
ha ha. And this guy, like he messaged me melt up for like a week straight while the market is
nuking. And I'm like, you know what, man, you're right. You're completely right. And then a few hours later, ETH just rips face
by like 20% and everything just melts back up to where it was before the market completely
overreacted, in my opinion. But we're finally climbing the wall of worry, which is Jackson Hole.
All eyes are on FOMC with the rate cut incoming.
So I'm probably just going to be joined by Donnie today.
I didn't really send many invites.
As I do think, right, like the time for extended shows here on this basis will come.
But probably when like ETH is well above 5,000,
Sol's in price discovery and things like that.
And we're probably going to have ETH BTC mark up to like 0.05 before we see others BTC really start to catch up,
start to catch up, which is really what everybody is waiting for. Everyone wants ETH to rally up to
which is really what everybody is waiting for.
like 6,000, while Bitcoin probably chills between 150, 160K. And then you have that broader altcoin
run. And we can even go back to as late as Q4 of 23. It wasn't until Bitcoin marked up to 40,000
where the broader altcoin market like Sol and Bonk and
other stuff like that really started to go crazy. So you actually want the structure of the market
to continue to be disciplined in that fashion. You definitely don't want to see on-chain just like
starting to go crazy here. You want to root for majors to keep on going and then
you want to wait for some consolidation and others going and then you want to wait for some
consolidation and others btc starts to mark up aggressively but i'm here joined by donnie and
as always guys on fridays usually during the last like 10 to 15 minutes um you know we bring you
guys up here in the audience so feel free to start sending your uh requests to come to speak just click the bottom
uh mic button on the bottom left and uh during the last few minutes of the conversation probably
the last like 10 15 maybe 20 minutes just to extend some grace for today's show given that
today is uh eth all-time high day and we all know what that means for the rest of the market. I'd love to have you guys up so we can talk shop.
Not so much of a Q&A, but more or less like what you guys are seeing in the market.
Maybe something that you guys think that we should look at, stuff like that.
Just to keep the conversation more engaging rather than just asking questions and stuff like that.
than just asking questions and stuff like that.
At least I feel that conversations are more intellectually stimulating
rather than just question after question after question.
But we're going to go ahead and cook for you guys over the next hour.
But before we do that, guys, before we do that,
if you guys can go ahead and show some love to the space.
Now, for those of you that are new here or have tuned in uh whenever the show uh starts to end or you might not catch the intro
one thing that i always ask if you guys if you guys can go ahead and show some love to the space
is by clicking the spaces tab once you guys do that you'll see a nice link right above our profile pictures that says x.com
slash i slash spaces you guys can go ahead and smash up that like button smash up that retweet
button if you're excited for prices that are occurring live in real time right now as we speak
hit up that like button if you're excited to know what is
to come for the altcoin market hit up that repost button smash it up to eliminate all bears off
the face of the earth and it does a number of things guys number one it helps feed off the
bears it helps pump the price as a of fact, when you smash up the like
button and you hit that repost button, it sends a message over to BlackRock and also to Tom Lee's
Funstrat and they press the green button. So if you think about it, right, anytime you press the
like button and the retweet button, it's actually a market buy. So if you want people to buy your bags, you have to click up that like button and repost button.
It also helps out with the algorithm and helps people rebuy their bags from a higher level.
People were actually selling their bags because Kanye launched a token.
And that was honestly obscene.
Why would you sell your bag because Kanye launched the token when, number one, as we said on yesterday's show, the Solana price wasn't even going up?
So that means that clearly it wasn't retail buying.
retail buying as we saw with trump coin people were actively buying soul on coinbase
and gemini and they actually ran out of soul to withdraw that's how insane trump coin was
but with kanye token that that didn't happen at all it was all insider driven and the pump lasted
like two hours or something like that and then hyper liquid launched uh perps on it uh at the pico top
and everyone i mean not everyone but like there were some people that made uh a good bag of money
shorting that thing and honestly i had to comment under his post and just be like like why why is
this guy trying to extract liquidity when obviously no one cares about him anymore um he reminds me of like a
minecraft character when he made that video uh but anyways i'm here joined by donnie donnie
brother now we have powell up against the wall with percent having a finger in his face saying
you are now going to run my playbook and he's saying it man it's time
for fed policy to change the playbook is here it's unfolding happening in real time and it's insane
buckshot season is loading i've got my rifle i've got my bullets and i'm ready man i'm ready brother welcome to the show it's gonna be uh an
incredible time bro it's gonna be an incredible time we've been uh guiding the people on the show
step by step show by show covering the lower time frame higher time frame and uh it's gonna be
another uh cook session man hey bro yeah it's definitely gonna be another cook session, man.
Hey, bro.
Yeah, it's definitely going to be a cook session because that was the pivot point of all pivot points, to be honest.
You've got every single ingredient now that you need for this market
to play out in the way that the Trump administration
basically wants it to play out.
Of course, they want rates lower, even faster,
and all this kind of stuff,
but it's already starting to unfold really. And next year, as they do end up changing around the Fed board a little't think you're just going to go up only, let's say, for the next 12 months.
It's definitely going to have ups and downs, but a really large up and then an okay, decent
down that you can capitalize on.
I don't think it'll be anything like we've seen in prior corrections because, again,
we've had certain macro levers like the DXY basically
oscillating above 100, which has made the market very choppy and has led to an ETH BTC down only
for the last three years. But now we've got the dollar actually down ticking today, which was
expected from the Fed pivot, which it's almost headed towards the level that it needs to break
down from, 97, if it structurally loses that low convincingly. I think it's headed towards the level that it needs to break down from, 97.
If it structurally loses that low convincingly,
I think it's headed towards the low 90s.
That's what I've been saying.
So you've got basically the dollar headed towards some sort of cyclical bear market, basically.
We'll see how that unfolds as all of these things keep incrementally playing out.
But basically, that's the trend that it looks like it's wanting to take.
And there's a lot of downwards pressure on the dollar that we already know about.
So what has led to these massive corrections that have given people PTSD
is obviously the strong dollar and yields flying, the dollar rallying, things like that,
the uncertainty around the Trump playbook.
But now all of that is gone.
Those are now headed in the direction that basically puts upwards pressure on the Trump playbook. But now all of that is gone. Those are now headed in the direction
that basically puts upwards pressure
on the risk asset market.
And so I don't really see any huge,
scary, flush out corrections
that we've been basically tortured by
because of this, right?
The only reason,
the only way you're going to get massive corrections now,
you know, 30% plus on BTC
is only if you go up by a
massive margin, purely because that unlocks a ton of supply that people are going to dump.
They just get too rich too quickly. And that leads to big corrections. So yeah, I'm not expecting
any massive dollar rallies or anything that can really tighten liquidity. But we'll see how this first wave plays out, which again,
this wave we've been discussing certain important levels on charts that for me,
I've been basically ticking off as old season triggers are actually playing out. If you guys
have looked at Bitcoin dominance today, it's below 58.5%. And even better, it didn't even
bounce off there,
completely disrespecting that zone, which basically just tells me that this chart is going
down by a big margin. The last trigger that I wanted to see was 130k BTC. And I think that's
definitely coming. So back to this pivot point that we just had, I shared up in the nest,
I posted this last night, because I knew I was going to be asleep
for the actual market open and the event, the Jackson Hole meeting,
purely because of my time zone.
But if you check that post, just open up the first chart,
which is just GlobalM2 over Gold and GlobalM2 over Bitcoin.
I was just sharing that as in, you guys know,
I've been sharing the BTC and gold
overlay basically from the bottom kind of as a forward guidance on how BTC should play out.
And you can see how much BTC is lagging behind gold. It's roughly like three months behind gold
as it just tends to follow global liquidity by that amount. But gold, it has actually been
leading global liquidity. And we've discussed that. Basically, it's been getting longed as a hedge against the monetary
inflation, kind of that environment that we're in right now. But you can see how much catching up
BTC has to do on that chart right now. And basically, the two main highest weighting sort of pillars that can explain Bitcoin's price action is literally
just global liquidity, which is 90 plus percent correlated to the NASDAQ and something like that
for Bitcoin as well. And then risk appetite. So obviously risk appetite was soured when we had
that bad PPI print, but we knew that the Fed was going to choose unemployment over a one-off uptick in PPI. So that was where a lot of people were getting
offside. And it led to another pricing in of a very uncertain event, which really wasn't
that uncertain to begin with, if you kind of knew what you were looking at. And it's the same as the 74K low
and the 98.2K World War III shakeout.
Both of those events were highly uncertain.
Obviously, the tariff one being the main one,
that was super uncertain.
And you just had the same thing right now.
All three of those points also,
they had a technical setup where you've left,
you've been downtrending with lower highs and lower lows,
leaving those untapped highs behind and slowly compressing into the bottoming zone,
which makes for a very sharp reversal if you flip that risk appetite
back to basically being hungry for risk again.
And we knew that if the Fed does end up choosing the unemployment side,
it's going to lead to a sharp reversal.
And you have the technical setup and you have the forward guidance
from global liquidity and gold on the Bitcoin chart.
The odds are stacked against a very sharp reversal.
So they're stacked for a very sharp reversal.
And that's exactly what we got.
Of course, it's a game of probabilities.
Anything can happen.
Jerome could have said, no, we're not going to cut rates or whatever. But it was highly probable that he was
going to choose the unemployment side. And yeah, we got the pivot point right again. And if you
guys go to that next chart, it's just the BTC and gold overlay. You can see now that green circle
that I've drawn on the chart, it makes a lot more sense than the last time I shifted it just
slightly to the left, which I thought was the unemployment situation and the downtick
in ISM.
This one obviously fit a lot cleaner and it tied in perfectly with the date of the Jackson
Hall meeting.
So we're basically pricing in what that's showing is to come next, which is a very sharp
reversal, but for a much higher high than the $124K high that we just put
in. So it doesn't mean you're going to price it in exactly like gold. That is literally like,
what is that? That's like three weeks of pretty much vertical price action for BTC.
Though that can happen, you don't have to bet on that. All you need to know is that it's
directionally correct, right? So you are headed more likely than not to that range of 138 to 182k for bitcoin basically following all of these
events that just occurred and then obviously the global liquidity side that gold has been
leading bitcoin by so as we have he's been saying the setup is insane and the playbook is unfolding
and this is the biggest pivot point
ever because again, you've got all of the ingredients for the Trump administration's
playbook for a pro-growth, pro-market agenda unfolding right now, which you can't reverse
on a dime now, right? Those are headed in that direction and there's no stopping that train, right? So, man, what a setup. That range that gold is forecasting for BTC,
because you've got the charts like Bitcoin dominance and ETH BTC and ETH USD all headed
in the right direction, when BTC does end up chopping in that range, I think that's where
alts are going to go beyond vertical, like as crazy as you've seen it in other cycles.
That's what I truly believe.
Because first of all, Bitcoin is in such deep price discovery.
The entire altcoin market has so much catching up to do.
And now you've got the Fed on board on top of all the other inflationary aspects of the Trump regime.
Everyone's going to be inclined to take more risk.
And these assets are coming flying off the lows with basically the seal of approval now
coming from the Fed.
So that's why you're seeing the Russell today, you know, clearing another key level that
I was watching very sharply and it barely even budged on that downside, which again
was the signal that like, okay, something bullish is around the corner.
The chart setup is just too good for this.
Yeah, Russell's headed towards all-time highs as well.
That's low-cap stocks.
So you've got all the tailwinds you need
for an alt season unfolding right now.
And that range is basically forecasted to last
until the end of the year,
which I think at the end of that range
is where liquidity pulls back into BTC, right?
BTC goes to 138, to 182, somewhere in there.
Ranges, alts go absolutely berserk.
And then that liquidity pulls back into Bitcoin
for the next leg higher
if we can get the confirmation on DXY breaking down from 97,
which is kind of inversely correlated to gold, right?
That's going to unlock another batch of global liquidity.
And gold is probably set out to go towards 4K. so what do we know if gold does go to 4k and we fulfill uh the current situation
that uh the btc gold chart is portraying well it means we're going to go to 138 182 fulfill that
range and then follow gold uh after that 4k rally if it does you know all play out and all that which means there's two waves
basically to the market that are unfolding and obviously that second wave because it's even more
inflated than the first and you might actually get potentially a stall out on gold at 4k i don't know
it's it's too far ahead to kind of forecast but you might get a swing in the btc gold chart which i don't have
anywhere to like share it with you guys right now but it's basically just bitcoin against gold
it's not in price discovery it's just below the prior cycle all-time highs
and a cyclical top in terms of the liquidity cycle, especially for crypto, it's always ended in BTC gaining
large market share against gold. And obviously, there's many fundamental reasons as to why we're
heading into a digital era. BTC is a digital form of gold. AI is coming into this, all of that,
right? So I don't think you're going to have a quote unquote, cyclical top until that chart is
in deep price discovery and gaining a ton of ground on gold.
But if gold is headed to 4k first, then that's a massively inflated gold, potentially rotating
into a already quite high priced BTC, which means BTC is probably going to hit above 200k
if you get those confirmations very easily, more so somewhere around $200,000 to $400,000 next year.
So that's a price range.
You can't take the maximum of that price range and say, oh, we're going to $400,000.
No, it's $200,000 to $400,000 if we get these confirmations.
But for now, my price range is still $138,000 to $182,000.
And I think for ETH, it's somewhere around $7,000 to 7 to 11k before this first wave is done.
We'll see. It could overperform. It could not.
But yeah, I think after ETH tags around 7k,
somewhere around there,
you could probably look at signs of exhaustion for ETH
and that's not actually necessarily a bearish thing.
That's a bullish thing for altcoins
because just like how people are rotating out of Bitcoin to ETH,
you're going to have ETH whales essentially rotating into their own ecosystem, the ETH chain, into things like
Pepe and whatnot. And that liquidity will trickle down again until that range is done and the
liquidity pulls back into Bitcoin for that second wave. So yeah, I hope all that made sense.
yeah I hope all that made sense
but yeah
this is a very very big pivot point
confirmation so
basically just buckle up
hold your bags and
yeah it's
time to actually win
the best
part actually about this setup is
even though all of these things have confirmed
there's going to be a ton of hesitation
still in the market.
And the confirmation for the people who hesitate
is just more green candles,
which obviously leads to that disbelief
of things actually happening,
renewed optimism, FOMO,
and then you get to the euphoric stage
where everyone's just bidding one direction.
It doesn't matter.
A new ticker comes out.
Everyone's just going bang, bang, bang.
So yeah, time to watch it happen
brother there's one thing that i forgot to mention i put it up on the nest guys something insane
is about to occur in this market over the next uh two and a half hours heading into this daily close
two and a half hours heading into this daily close others btc my personal favorite chart
for the all coin market is about to make fresh local highs donnie if eth has a weekly close
above 5k my goodness man the gap up that we're going to see i think is going to be bigger than the price action that we saw today.
And honestly, dude, like there are a lot of people that sold all their bags going into
this meeting for, for whatever reason, man, for whatever reason.
And, you know, people often tend to forget because this market moves so fast and it trains people to have the memory of a
goldfish. But we forget that when the S&P and the Nasdaq composite have corrections of over 20%,
it's usually indicative of a new market cycle beginning. That was a textbook bear market. You had high cap tech draw down by 50 percent.
Trillions, trillions, man, were in drawdown. Trillions of dollars got wiped out in that
drawdown in a matter of weeks. And I think the VIX went one-to-one with how high it went five years ago during the COVID crash.
And that wasn't even a secular event.
When people talk about the COVID crash, they think that it's just one day that occurred.
No, the actual drawdown for the quote-unquote COVID crash, it lasted a few weeks.
It was from late February all the way to mid-March.
And back in that time, in early January, all markets looked tremendously bullish.
I think Bitcoin was trading at like 11,000 or something like that.
The S&P was at all-time high.
And then we started to have those lockdown
fears. And look at what occurred during that time period, Donnie. Remember, we had all the gold bugs
here on the stage telling us that iPhones were going to be three times the amount that they were
being priced in at right now. I think an iPhone right now is like,
a brand new iPhone is like $1,300, $1,400.
So they were saying,
oh, what does that mean for the consumer
that holds Apple stock or NVIDIA stock?
And now they have to pay a 100%, 200% premium
on their iPhones.
What do you think they're going to do?
They're going to sell their assets.
And it's like, that's not going to happen, man.
That's just not going to happen at all. And I think we also have, Donnie, the tax rebate that Trump wants to do. I think it's like a couple hundred dollars per household. I think it's like a, yeah, it's a tax cut rebate. And I'm still not even sure if those like Doge Jimmy checks are coming, bro.
That ended up being a nothing burger.
But I think GDP right now is still not even half of what Besant and Trump want it to be.
but Bessette and Trump want it to be.
So, man, dude, 30,000 NASDAQ composite, 7,000 S&P, man.
That's going to be a sight to see.
And during yesterday's show on Wednesday, we were like, all right,
the equity markets are starting to have a lower timeframe downturn
after outperforming the crypto market.
So now is the time for crypto to take center stage and start to outperform.
And that's exactly what's unfolding before our eyes right now.
And it's a lot different to say like, oh, of course, everything is going to go up and
to the right.
At this point, if you are a cognizant individual and you're a grown adult
and you've been out in the workforce for a few years, you understand that assets are up and to
the right decade by decade. There's always going to be some easing. There's always going to be
a fractional reserve and all that stuff. Bitcoin is up and to the right forever.
Probably the same thing with ETH,
probably with Sol and one other asset, right?
But to actually narrate what happens in between
all the outperformers and all that stuff,
all the lower timeframes,
that is a whole different skill set, man.
And that's why I enjoy doing these shows with you, man, and not really entertaining a lot of the noise that we've seen on social media, man.
We've got Soul right now.
Soul is now above $200.
It's a couple of dollars away from hitting fresh fresh local highs uh let me just go on price
right now so if soul has a weekly close above uh 205 207 donnie bro probably more like 210 if soul
has a weekly close above 210 who brother the sky is the limit it's definitely coming there's there's no if
bro if you if you look at the weekly on soul you'll see back in february once soul broke uh
that like 222 15 level that's when things started to get nasty so then we ask ourselves what happens
when the inverse of that happens right after a nasty flush where soul
went down to 90 bucks and then like as as as uncle mike says right your kid analysts started
to short soul at 90 which was honestly insane to me to be frank it that was an insane move. And you have ETH already at all-time highs. Bitcoin hit all-time highs last month.
So what happens when Seoul, the previous market leader from last cycle,
starts to go into higher timeframe bullish market structure? And by last cycle, I literally mean last year because I think we can all agree a new cycle began once ETH USD bottomed, then ETH BTC started to mark up.
That's why we're all here, right?
We're all here to denominate our portfolios in BTC and from time to time in a seasonal basis see if we could uh outperform btc and if
eath btc has just made a fresh local high i think it's trading at like 0.04 let me just like
make sure right now that pin tweet bro aged so beautifully yep e, ETH BTC is now at .041.
And I'm going to go ahead and put that pinned tweet that I made last month.
And this was when ETH BTC was at .023.
And you remember, Donnie, man, like we were getting absolutely clowned on.
Clowned on, brother.
So ETH BTC is almost 2x above that level when I tweeted that out.
And, you know, I didn't post ETH BTC at the bottom.
I didn't have to.
I posted it right as momentum started to catch wind on its sails, man.
So, bro, we get ETH BTC at .05, close to that 200 weekly moving average, brother.
Dude, Larry Finkelstein is going to start going on max leverage, bro.
And you know what's crazy, Donnie?
And you know what's crazy, Donnie?
You know what's crazy?
You know what's crazy?
And I'll stop yapping here.
And I'll stop yapping here.
Fundstrat has $20 billion ready to ape into Ethereum.
That is weeks before a rate cut.
Now, do you think they're going to wait for the Fed to cut rates like most of retail is?
Oh, I'm just going to wait for the Fed to cut rates like most of retail is oh i'm just gonna wait for the fed to cut rates i'm gonna wait for for full confirmation on top of my confirmation and after that's confirmed i need
even more confirmation they're just gonna end up being priced out man they're gonna end up being
priced out but that's uh that's the end of my yap man that's the end of my yap, man. That's the end of my yap. ETH BTC just looks so incredible, bro.
So insane.
It does.
It is approaching what is marked on the chart as resistance at 0.45-ish, let's say, all the way through to 0.57,
which I think if you do start disrespecting that zone, like you're just not paying attention to it at all,
it could zip to 0.8 pretty fast.
That would be... If we do that
before the end of this
wave one, let's call it,
I think that you could potentially test
those 2017 highs that you like, Wabi.
If you can get ETH BTC disrespecting that first zone
and zipping towards 0.8 within this first wave,
I think by the end of the second wave in 2026,
again, if it all plays out, the confirmations play out,
it's looking good, so I'm feeling pretty confident that it might,
you can actually get a fresh new all-time high on the ETH BTC chart, which is nuts.
That's exactly what's going to happen, man.
That's exactly what is going to happen.
You remember a couple of days ago?
We'll see.
Go ahead, Dan.
If there is resistance at this 0.45,
that means that BTC is taking a bunch of liquidity
to get to 138 to 182 first.
That could stall out the ETH BTC chart there a little bit.
And then we'll see after that where ETH BTC goes, right?
But yeah, just saying, if you do get to 0.8 in this first wave,
let's say it runs all the way from, I don't know,
now till December or potentially even January.
Yeah, I think in that second wave, you can actually put in a new ethbdc all-time high which is i i didn't i remember bro earlier
this week um all the chaos on the timeline all the chaos on on sentiment and it's not even people that like i follow because i i like to actually
follow people and have bell notice on for people that i think have some edge right but from time
to time maybe like 10 minutes out of the week i like to just scroll uh on the for you page here
on x and you know we were looking at ETH BTC and we're like,
whoa, whoa, whoa, look here, Bo.
What is going on here?
This is the exact same setup that we saw, as we said,
back in late June.
ETH BTC, higher or low.
Bitcoin flirting with a break of structure at 111K.
Is this thing going to go to 100K? Is it going to go to 90K? Is it going to destroy alts? Bitcoin flirting with a break of structure at 111K.
Is this thing going to go to 100K?
Is it going to go to 90K?
Is it going to destroy alts?
And as we say on these spaces, right, sometimes the market doesn't give us those perfect retests. But as I said last week and on previous shows, Donnie, you're completely right.
donnie you're completely right i think if btc has a huge huge huge chance uh at making um all-time
highs at the very least testing that 0.1 level um which i think was the complacency high in january
of uh 2017 i'll just go on the weekly here.
Roughly around there, 0.12 or something.
Yeah, that's
going to be insane, man.
That's just for anyone that's listening.
Just think about 0.10
on the ETH BTC chart as just 10%
of Bitcoin. So if Bitcoin's at
200k and ETH BTC
is at 0.10,
that's 10% of 200k,
20k ETH. That seems ridiculous 0.10. That's 10% of 200K, 20K ETH.
It seems ridiculous,
but that's just the way that the charts are showing it.
And obviously there's a lot of tailwinds for BTC as well to get to those numbers that we just discussed
throughout this entire space from the start.
Donnie, so at those levels,
I think ETH would have a valuation similar to NVIDIA.
Not even.
I think it would have, actually, yeah, let's call it 80% of NVIDIA's market cap, right?
And one thing that we've discussed on the show over the last couple of weeks has been scott the sense uh eth is about
across 5 000 by the way guys like it's pumping during the show which is honestly insane watching
this thing on the lower time frame i wish there was a way to actually stream to be honest like
show video but either way man um when scott besent says, now look here, guys, I think the total addressable
market for the short term for stable coins is between two to three trillion.
Now, what does that mean for the guardrails to facilitate the stable coin addressable
market?
Probably a lot higher, don't you think?
Probably a lot higher, don't you think?
Probably a lot higher, a lot higher.
A lot higher.
And similar to NVIDIA, if NVIDIA is a supplier of all these chips for AI,
and you compare AI and programmable money, they should be tied one-to-one.
So at least there's an arbitrage trade to be made similar to when we called out that hood trade at $30
compared to MicroStrategy, right?
So MicroStrategy, their story is cooked.
I think it's still topped for the cycle relative to some of these younger guys coming in that have a broader consumer base like Robinhood who facilitate
stock trading, forex trading, and also acquisitions in the crypto market.
They're actively in acquisitions for some of these altcoin companies.
So the story is there to be told.
And the gap is still tremendous between hood and MSTR or strategy.
So the same thing would apply now for something like an Ethereum relative to NVIDIA.
So it's going to be an insane weekly close, Donnie.
Isn't it wild, bro, how all it takes is like one day or two days of price action to literally flip the direction of the
markets yep that's always how it is in crypto as well like all of the energy builds up to that
pivot point and the most offside trade always tends to happen which again at this point was
uh everybody was kind of worried about the fed being hawkish. And there you go. It's actually kind of crazy how, like I'm looking at that gold BTC overlay, right?
And it's just clearly showing that, okay, we're due for a sharp pullback, testing that 112K low and then a very sharp reversal.
It just so happens to be that the catalysts are perfectly aligned to fit that chart which is again a forward
looking chart of what's going to happen based off of what happened with gold it's really weird
but yeah you just got to play the chart and go for it the gold btc chart and uh the uh the british
pound btc chart man yeah the two the two most important charts for bitcoin probably uh probably
ever but you know donnie it's it's pretty interesting bro um sort of the analysis that
you've had uh for your q4 outlook is bitcoin trading between 138 to 180 and then having
bitcoin kind of range while others btc probably starts to mark up yeah
and what's interesting man is we're seeing that we're seeing that sort of playbook occur with
eth when we look at bitcoin bitcoin has been ranging for a month and a half now whether it's there is ETH. ETH has almost done a 90% move, 95% move since Bitcoin locally topped last month.
So now imagine that, right? But Bitcoin trading a lot higher, ETH trading a lot higher,
and the broader altcoin market is rallying even harder than what ETH BTC is doing right now.
So I guess what you're trying to say is like this market cycle
is now going to grant people grace that it didn't in prior rallies before,
whereas prior rallies, you know,
most of the upside was cooked within like two to three weeks.
Yep. Now looking at the ETH BTC,
sorry, the others BTC chart right now,
bro, that thing just looks like
it's about to just vertically jump.
I need to just share a chart
so the viewers can see it.
I'll just quickly spam upload it
and share it.
I've got my rifle, Donnie.
I've got my rifle.
I've got my green buck shots.
Knock if you buck. Knock if you buck.
Knock if you buck.
Okay, check that chart out.
I shared this when Wabi first mentioned it,
comparing it to that pivot point in the last cycle,
which is basically where monetary policy started to get easier, right?
You had a recovery bounce in others' BTC all the way until COVID,
and then obviously the COVID crash.
And then another batch of massive amount of global liquidity.
It was a ridiculous amount.
And then you had others BTC put in a second wave.
You had that deviation of the range low, which we're literally just fulfilling right now.
I think you reclaim that very quickly.
And you start testing that blue line that i've drawn as amsb
which is just a market structure break if you get above that man i literally get the chills thinking
about it because i know how quickly uh these low caps can move when you get that much of a market
tailwind behind it especially when the market is this inflated and it's about to inflate even more
before that liquidity really gets thrown into alts. So this chart is also adding confluence to that two wave sequence that I'm thinking about,
about having one altcoin wave now, another reaccumulation for BTC happening in the midst
of that. And then BTC puts in a second wave in 2026. And then that liquidity, well, it puts in a strong leg against
gold, which kind of marks like a liquidity cycle top. And then that highly inflated Bitcoin gets
rotated into ETH and altcoins again for a much higher altcoin wave to kind of, I guess, wrap up
the cycle. But again, there's even larger macro uh sort of playbook that's unfolding
on top of all of that so got to be careful trying to call for a cycle top uh because a cycle top
might not look like prior cycle tops where you had you know 70 80 drawdowns uh and a very prolonged
bear market but we'll see again it's way too far out to forecast right now.
But yeah, this other's BTC chart,
I just know it's going to play out.
It's going to play out.
And it's very close to just reclaiming that range low,
which you're probably looking at your old coins right now
and you're like, okay, they're up.
But why aren't they sprinting?
The Fed just cut rates.
You'll see.
And that hesitation that people have and they get more green candle confirmation it's just
going to get steeper and steeper so i think the the setup is truly nuts yeah man i'll tell you
what man spx 6900 also up 20% on the day.
Sure does put a smile on my face, man.
Murad, bro, like, dude, you know what we should do, man?
We should have you and Murad on the space at the same time, man.
That would probably be, like, such a massive space, man.
I remember I had him in late September of last year.
Dude, it would probably be, like, the greatest twitter space of all time man just like an hour and a half of just pure alpha
um like dude you are truly one of the only individuals that works hard for their bags
just like murad like bro murad is the kind of dude that would like
comment on on a post with this like guy i think he posted something like oh my girlfriend broke
up with me um i i said i couldn't take out money from the market because it was by the dip or
whatever and she left me or whatever she went on over for a girl's trip, and then Murat is like, SPX 6900 fixes this, brother.
Stop trading and believe in something.
But look, I've got Grant on the stage.
Grant, how are you, brother?
Great to have you on the show.
How are you feeling, man?
Good, I'm feeling good.
I had a feeling this guy was going to say nothing today and things were going to go up.
Yeah, it was quite something.
I think his statements that policy is probably, not probably, but policy is now on the road to change.
I think those were some of his statements that he made. not probably, but policy is now on the road to change.
I think those were some of his statements that he made.
I think the market is like, all right, it's game on now.
And unfortunately, some people are going to have to buy some of their assets a lot higher from where they sold it.
This market absolutely loves to shake some people out.
Well, I mean, there's only one place for rates to go at some point.
It's just when.
Is it next year, first quarter, sooner or later,
everybody's going to realize they have to come down.
And the auto dealers are having trouble selling cars.
Homes aren't selling.
Like they have to get these rates down. Otherwise it'll
just, you know, the American people just can't be continued. The middle class is paying the price
for this. So maybe everybody's going to finally recognize that and quit knee jerking. And
I don't know. I'd love for somebody to explain to me why Bitcoin is so interest rate sensitive.
Why does Bitcoin move so much with the idea that rates are going to go down?
So I would just give a statement saying that it would provide access to capital a lot easier for the average consumer.
access to capital a lot easier for the average consumer. But given that a lot of these hedge
fund types have funds in money markets and all that stuff, they've actually been earning yield
on their cash. So with that yield, at least this is what I'm dubiously speculating, with that yield
that they're getting through treasuries and all all that stuff they buy bitcoin um i'd even go
as far as to say that tether has been a huge huge huge market mover um between 15k and 120
because they are officially one of the largest um holders uh in that market so with all the yield
that they get and all the uh all the fees that they make through all their
stablecoin issuance, they likely buy Bitcoin.
So it's kind of like a two-sided sword.
And I would assume that the lower rates go, that the average consumer would be like,
I'm going to go ahead and buy some spot Bitcoin.
At least for myself, tapping into the average consumer, I've been going back to church and all that stuff.
There are some people that notice that all
right if the fed is going to cut rates might as well buy some stocks and usually the way people
have um found crypto is through first making money in the stock market usually when the stock market
becomes exuberant and i think we're at a place now, Grant, where people are starting to show off some of their unrealized P&L from the stock market.
And usually when that occurs and you have a new influx of buyers coming in, shortly after that, people start moving from the stock market over to crypto.
And they usually start off with like Bitcoin, ETH, Sol.
So that would be uh that
would be my assumption donnie what are your thoughts man sorry i was busy typing away there
what was the original question why does the market go up if rates no no no why why did
why did bitcoin people say when interest rates come down, Bitcoin's going to – I mean, first of all, interest rates did not come down much today.
Yeah.
So nothing's really happened but Bitcoin moved.
Why do Bitcoiners suggest or believe that it's tied to interest rates being lower?
believe that it's tied to interest rates being lower? I think today's move wasn't based purely
on interest rates being lower themselves, right? It was more, I tried to explain it earlier in the
space, you had a very nice technical setup on the Bitcoin chart where people were pricing in
uncertainty around Fed policy. So the two things that tend to move Bitcoin, which were already in
check, which is global liquidity, we're still following the Bitcoin over gold overlay, which gold just tends to lead Bitcoin by about three, four months.
We're still halfway through pricing that in. But because of this recent Fed uncertainty, we're pricing in some downside, right? to choose the unemployment situation or if they're going to really keep trying to hammer down that inflation side of things, which is a big market risk if they were to choose
inflation over the unemployment situation.
And as soon as you had that sentiment flip from Jerome basically pivoting more dovish,
the market just repriced back to where it was meant to originally be priced.
And you had a very good technical setup with just a bunch of liquidity above after this endless perpetual downtrend
from that high so it was more just a sentiment flip then like rates have actually done something
yet and yeah that's basically what it did in the immediate short term i have an answer for him too
it's ultimately because it allows for cheaper borrowing and more liquidity.
Like every time they cut their rates, like the sentiment is that the U.S. dollar is going to weaken.
So it makes like hard assets more desirable, like gold. And Bitcoin is the new digital gold, right?
That's like the tagline. So it's kind of, you know, people are doing it like it's a digital gold and a better hold
it's more hotter than gold right now because it's you know we're in a bull market and it's buzz
and also when they cut the rates usually like the risk appetite rises
we got some people uh requesting donnie you think we should start bringing people up now man
we've been going for about an hour yeah bro why not yeah i'll bring up uh luke first
luke is he's dedicated man he he he loves this show by the way man shout out to lu show, by the way, man. Shout out to Luke. But by the way, guys, by the way, I do want to tell all of you who are just tuning in, maybe you're new here.
If you guys have been enjoying this content over the last hour, we go live here throughout the week.
Usual start time is between 4.30 p.m. EST to 4.45 p.m. EST.
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trad fi um macro we love to discuss all things markets that's why the show is called market talk
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So I'm going to go ahead and pass the mic over to Luke first.
Luke,
what's going on,
man?
What have you got for us, brother?
Is Luke speaking, or is he on?
I don't even see him in the panel.
He knows it.
Well, I guess spaces might be acting up.
I'll pass it over now to Achilles.
Achilles, what's up, man?
Yo, just wanted to touch on what Grant was asking about
when it comes to Bitcoin and interest rates.
Yeah, so liquidity definitely plays a huge role um
when you're when you're dropping interest rates obviously there's a there's a lot of uh liquidity
that jumps into the market and alternative investments are are a big player especially
when it comes to uh money sitting on the side for the past three years i mean we've been having uh the worst three
years ever when it came to uh venture capital uh angel investing institutional investments in
in startups uh so so all of this plays plays a huge role and with with bitcoin basically kind
of leading the way when it comes to alternative investments and Ethereum right now crossing nearly at 5,000.
I think that like once the market felt that there was a hint of hope that this guy might start dropping those rates,
they just anticipated and jumped into the market because supply is running low as well on ETH.
When it comes to ETH, last week we had around 18 million in available ETH on exchanges,
which is a very, very, very low number.
So I think that's the supply crunch and just markets are anticipating what's going to happen,
probably thinking that the first drop's going to happen, probably thinking that the
first drop is going to happen in September.
Yeah.
And a lot of the market buys Bitcoin on borrowed money.
So when they cut the rates, like a lot of the way these big guys trade, it's now their
money from their bank account.
They borrow the money and then they have to pay a lower rate.
So they just take out more of it and then they pay like even you had like big people like gary
v like last cycle saying he was doing that with e and then when they raised the rates basically
the market was over um so yeah they just take out like these these crate they just borrow crazy
amounts of money for cheaper and then knowing they can get a return fairly quickly with Bitcoin
because it's the safest asset if they do that. Or like last cycle too, a lot of people did that
with ETH and then they just paid back the loan. They got all this free money essentially from
the borrow. So that's why it's like, it's always been like super bullish, like in conjunction with
like what I said, like people are viewing it, the big guys are viewing like Bitcoin, this is the digital gold. So like this
is the new cool thing to own other than gold when they cut the rates. So that's, that's why you'll
see like the market stimulate if they have that they end up like cutting the rates in September,
but it all depends on like by how much. But then last cycle, the reason it went bananas is because you had the pandemic, right?
So they were like, they were like cutting the rates like crazy.
And then on top of it, we all got, you know, people got their stimulus checks
and they were literally just shoving it back into the crypto market.
And that's why you saw like that crazy explosion last cycle.
And that's why you saw that crazy explosion last cycle.
Yeah, the cycle truly doesn't start to get interesting, guys,
until we see that others' BTC chart go into price discovery.
And I really wish I could just dig through my old posts
and put them up on the nest.
But I've already done that once in the space, and I really don't want to do that again.
But if we look back at last cycle, whenever you start seeing total three go into price discovery, others starts to follow.
Others BTC starts to follow.
Others BTC starts to follow, and that is when we had ADA going crazy,
Solana going crazy, Luna going crazy, all the L1 super cycle that went on
from 2020 and 2021.
That's when things really started to get hot.
You know what's interesting, guys?
Once Others BTC started to flirt with price discovery,
that's when you had Dogecoin going crazy that's when you had
the gme squeeze the bed bath and beyond squeeze and all that stuff so maybe that coincides with
like maybe another gme squeeze i'm not sure what's going on with that uh but i i definitely think that like stock market mania probably starts to get super euphoric for retail when you start seeing Robinhood stock at like 250 or something like that.
At least that's my personal opinion. like low-cap stocks that have a similar playbook as GME did last cycle,
where people were in their homes, locked down and all that stuff,
and there wasn't really much to do.
But I do think ARK Invest is something else still to pay attention to.
ARK, still not above its July highs, but once you get above 80, it's game time.
But, Luke, what's going on, man?
Are you back with us, brother?
Yes, how are you guys?
Sorry, I couldn't hear anything.
Oh, you're good, man.
You guys able to hear?
Yeah, as far as AR arc and all those stocks i mean
donnie like those charts i was sending you they basically once you see those breaking out again
then they kind of front run the ism so to me it's like bitcoin miners arc all those stock
it's like Bitcoin miners, ARK, all those stocks, like even Fartcoin, they all kind of follow the
same fractal. Like once those start breaking out, that's basically confirmation in my mind that ISM
is about to get above 50 into expansionary zone again. And then Donnie, do you see the chart I
sent you, the copper to gold ratio? I mean looks looks bottomed to me i don't know what do
you think about that where's that chart i i don't know how to locate it right now copper to gold i
posted in the comments oh shit i'll try i'll quickly try and find us go look at copper
divided by gold but basically like the same level as it was in early 2020 so i think that's
something that people i think people are going to get confused about this cycle going on longer
unless we giga pump into like way way high at the end of this year
once the ism gets above 50 into expansionary it doesn't just
the market doesn't just peter out right after like that that's like the beginning of a macro
expansionary cycle so yeah i don't know well what do you think no i agree bro you got you know you already know my
thesis on uh higher for longer and obviously today you saw the drop in the dollar and you're
seeing a little bit of upwards pressure on gold again as soon as you lose 97 on the dollar i think
you're going to get a rally start on gold to potentially head towards 4k which if we're lagging
gold and we're still yet to fulfill the sharp rally that gold
had to 3500 on btc as shown on the bitcoin and gold overlay i'll just share it one more time in
the nest um yeah you're you're basically setting up for uh two waves on bitcoin and this wave for
me it's 138 to 182k um form a range and then if the DXY and gold plays out, you're headed for another higher high
in 2026, which at that point, if we do come to, let's say, a liquidity cycle top or exhaustion
in terms of global liquidity, I think you're going to have rotations out of gold into Bitcoin while
the window is still open. And you're going to have a massive price discovery breakout against Bitcoin
against gold, basically. Because right now you're still below the prior cycle all-time high on the
Bitcoin gold chart and you don't have a liquidity cycle top until that chart, until Bitcoin gains
momentum against gold, right? So if gold goes to 4k before those rotations happen and BTC has already hit 150 in range,
let's say, then you're easily looking at a 200k plus Bitcoin.
Yes, because the same thing happens with gold in my mind.
People rotate down the curve into digital gold, just like what happens from Bitcoin to
from Bitcoin to the altcoins.
the altcoins.
It's the same type of thing.
It's the same type of thing.
Yeah, high-cap assets to low-cap assets,
but especially gold to BTC.
And literally, the BTC gold pair chart
has to go enterprise discovery against gold
basically every cycle or every sort of macro trend up
if we do believe that the world is going to become
more digital over time from here and Bitcoin is a part of that equation as the digital gold so it just makes complete
logical sense for that to play out yeah like the expansionary phase does not come until we break
out against gold like you exactly you have breaking out against S&P, Qs, but breaking out against gold, that's the real fast parabola part of the cycle in my mind.
Exactly. And if that doesn't come yet, like it was, let's say it was meant to happen now, as people thought the four-year cycle is going to play out, what if there's another leg in gold to 4K before that plays out and we're still yet to fulfill what gold fulfilled, which again, it's pointing to 138 to 182 before you even have that
big leg up and then the rotations to gold into Bitcoin. Literally my price target is 200 to 400k.
And it sounds ridiculous, but think about how massively inflated a 4k gold is if there's any
level of percentage rotation into bitcoin uh while
obviously you got the u.s government and blackrock marketing this thing to the whole world
in an inflationary macro environment as the greatest inflation hedge against uh the greatest
inflation hedge uh that we ever have basically with fixed supply it's obviously going to go
vertical yeah i mean the environment that's being engineered for it the environment that's being engineered for it is literally perfect so think of the uh the percent gain that gold has to
uh appreciate for the amount of total wealth creation like the market cap's so big that
that like 10 20 appreciation of gold is insane amounts of liquidity that gets rotated
yeah so guys with all with all this setting up right and you know we see solana above 200 bucks
uh i think the next fomc is going to be in a couple of weeks here pal's probably going to cut
rates um i think things on chain are about to absolutely explode so donnie what does that mean is going to be in a couple of weeks here. Powell's probably going to cut rates.
I think things on chain are about to absolutely explode.
So, Donnie, what does that mean for some assets that didn't get completely annihilated because Kanye West
decided to have an ego and thought he still had emotion,
which was insane, by the way.
I called the exact top of that coin in my discord
the exact bro i bro i saw ragsy shout out to ragsy man what an insane like what an insanely uh
alpha pack post ragsy made a tweet saying that if yzy launched during like mania like we had
earlier in january and december it would basically it would
have basically been exactly like trump coin and melania just destroying charts left and right but
the fact that like he launched it when conditions were kind of iffy very there was tons of uncertainty and the lowest on-chain activity in like ages
yeah i think if you look at dune um i think it's dune xyz it lets you see like activity on chain
we were still down like 70 percent in the amount of daily active users on solana it was actually
crazy and it ended up just being like another super bundle scam like uh
like boom where it just prints for like a day maybe a few hours and most of the pump uh is
already is already done i see crash here in the audience if you want to come up crash and talk
some shop feel free to do so man i know you've done some content with max i'll send you an invite if you
want to talk man um but uh yeah ragsy you were spot on with that if yzy actually came out during
peak like on chain season and we were above that seven mil uh per day mark with over seven million
wallets live on soul it would have destroyed market. But if we take a look at
like Bucky, for example, and a few others, they held structure pretty well. But Donnie, what do
you think this means, man? Kanye released a token, market doesn't care. And ETH put in one of the
biggest daily candles that we've seen since the lows back in april where i think we had like a 30
pump or something like that and that's when the gold bugs were attacking us man but i see you've
got something up on the nest man if you want to kind of do like a a smaller deep dive on what
this means for things on chain on soul um because bucky looks absolutely ready bro we get that weekly close above 210
yeah things are off to the races bro honestly like of course you know I'm in Bucky I like it I've been
talking about it heaps but just understand that the way that the market is set up right now with
these big pivotal macro levers that we've just had confirmed, the floor is just incrementally going to raise on
every single asset on chain. That's half decent with a risk on pulse, right? There's tons of
coins out there, but the floor is going to start escaping and every coin is going to start
incrementally going higher because people are going to be finding bottom charts, rotating and
picking up bags, things like that. And the market's just going to inflate as a whole, right? But that sets up a very powerful on-chain market because the more that the market inflates and you've got new
runners launching on-chain that start from literally zero, but you've got rotations out
of a massively inflated Bitcoin, massively inflated ETH into their subsequent chains,
massively inflated Sol, you've had runners in the past go from zero to 1.4 billion like goat
without any of these conditions, without all of these massively inflated tokens,
and without people actually dumping their stacks of Bitcoin and ETH and soul
to chase higher risk assets, basically, in the ecosystem, while that window is open
for you to take big risk. So I'm pretty excited even just for new coins, right?
But of course, coins that have recently come out or have been around for the last year or so,
they're going to massively appreciate first. And then obviously, as they get massively inflated,
they'll rotate into newer things and things like that. But I honestly just think everything is
just going to go up so much. And of course, if you look at B I just think, I honestly just think everything is just going to
go up so much. And of course, if you look at Bucky right now, I was literally about to break
over that mid-range where if you check, I shared a chart like recently of how, I'll just actually
share it again because it's really good. This is Troll versus Bucky, which they're basically a
similar narrative coming out of like a 4chan meme, right? Won't go too deep into that.
But this is more of just like a technical setup to understand.
Look at how a coin on chain performs after it does its first wave from launch.
They typically, you know, actually never even make it to 50 mil.
That's so rare that I can only think of like a few coins that have done that in the past.
that's so rare that I can only think of a few coins that have done that in the past.
Pepe, Fartcoin, I think there's maybe a few more that have pulled like 50 million in the first wave.
Even Troll itself, now sitting at 280 mil, it hit like 43 and bottomed around like 9-ish.
So Bucky put in 50 at the high and 12.3 at the low.
And you can see Troll, as soon as it flipped that mid-range it
just went absolutely parabolic now for bucky's you know uh situation you've literally got
the biggest macro tailwind confirming which is basically the fed jumping on board kind of
facilitating the trump agenda right that's a huge macro tailwind for the whole market
so it's sitting pretty nice after completing such an
impressive wave one to have a second wave. And I think that second wave, if you've got a 50 mil
high, 2, 3, 4Xing that high is pretty doable, especially with ETH breaking out, Bitcoin dominance
nuking, us heading to much higher highs, even on Bitcoin's chart to around 138 to 182 and forming
that range for a massive alt season.
Literally just bid something and hold it.
But yeah, this is a good option.
I really like it.
You guys can research it for yourself.
And yeah, obviously not financial advice,
but I think it's a banger.
And yeah, I'm excited to hit new coins as well.
And that's kind of where I shine.
You guys know I've hit multiple hundred Xs
and given them out on X and in my Discord.
And I just think it's going to be endless.
Honestly, while this environment is here,
you need to just strap in
and really stick to these on-chain markets.
And it's funny because people always talk badly
about meme coins and stuff.
I have literally, I won't even say the numbers,
but if I didn't trade memes,
if I didn't pivot to memes in 2024,
and again, you're not even taking much risk on these. You just need to be quick and see them
early. You can make millions of dollars within weeks. I literally turned a thousand bucks in Q4
of 2024 into seven figures in four weeks. Literally three coins. It was Mudang,
Memes AI, and Fred. Rotate, rotate, rotate, seven figures so i i'm excited man like honestly i
don't know what to say right i remember the very first space that me and donnie did together was
uh i'm pretty sure it was literally the day before the uh the election and uh you dm'd me fred at like seven mil market cap three mil and uh
oh yeah i think i might have gotten it confused with peanut then because i know with peanut it
was like in the uh i think it was like 80 mil or something yeah they were the same trade just like
obviously fred was a little bit smaller so i took i took fred because i knew okay this thing is like
tiny market cap but it's literally a beta entirely attached to the narrative.
I was like, if Peanut's going to rip, I'd rather trade this because this thing could pull 100x.
And it literally did 3 mil to 300 mil in three days.
Yeah, and those times are quickly going to come back, man.
And those times are quickly going to come back, man.
We have the same playbook that we saw last year as far as like Fed policy with the rate cuts.
But the difference between now and then is that ETH BTC is actually in a higher time frame uptrend.
That is the difference like we now have confirmation that eth btc is now in a bull market structure for the
first time um in almost five years because eth btc didn't actually really start to run until like
the summer of 2020 we had that massive crash uh in q1 of 2020 so we had that first huge run in uh the summer we had that pullback and then going into 21 that's
when eth really started to shine and then you had others btc um starting to catch up but others is
going to catch up extremely extremely hard man i don't think others btc donnie is going to take as
long as um as eth btc has to get above its yearly open that's going to take as long as ETH BTC has to get above its yearly open.
That's going to be insane, especially when we prospect the idea of newer coins coming out into the market.
Because you're going to need some escape velocity runners to have others BTC mark up to new all-time highs,
which I do think is going to happen by next summer and i'll
stick by that statement man i think by next summer others btc is well into price discovery
and the fact of the matter is um that's why people at least from what i've seen on ct and just
sentiment in general that's why they say, the cycle has sucked so much.
Like, oh, why is the cycle so bad?
It's because others, BTC, has gotten annihilated.
Bitcoin has annihilated the broader altcoin space for years,
and now we're starting to see ETH do the same thing.
But we're now starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel which is others
btc um starting to mark up and we all know that retail comes in when things are in price discovery
now i'm not saying that like your specific altcoin isn't going to go into price discovery but what retail is attracted to is multiple stories of
winners winners q4 of last year yeah we saw things run to billions but they were only a select few
it wasn't more than like 10 it wasn't more than like 10 new tickers that went to billions we need like dozens of winners what people like about crypto
is ngu tech number go up technology you need to see more winners man more stories of winning
winning so much you're gonna get tired of winning mr president hey you know what's crazy bro you
know what's crazy you know what's crazy don you know and
i'll stop right here six months ago we had chad scott besant saying give it six to nine months
and you'll see the the beginnings mind you he said the beginnings of the trump economy and he went on
to state that america is going to be the crypto capital of the world man yeah exactly go ahead don now i agree with everything
you said um i kind of forgot what i was going to say but it was something along the lines of
do you remember the meme coin cope in 2024 after bitcoin hit 74k and ranged for a bit and like the
rest of the market just did nothing and you had like meme coins just pulling thousand X after thousand X after thousand X.
I honestly think you're going to get that,
but way more exaggerated by the end of this year, I think.
Because you can, I just shared the chart again.
Others BTC in the nest.
Just take a, literally just take a look at those two red circles.
I guarantee you that's where we're at.
You're about to flip that low again. And we know retail does move markets when it comes to new launches and chasing coins and things like that.
The most understood market is the meme coin market in crypto.
It's the most lucrative by far.
And that's where they're going to flood into because it doesn't take any brain cells to understand the narrative of a coin. It's very easy to share the data around the trade and just share
why people are attracted to it. So I honestly think, I remember it clearly in 2024, the cope
was literally immeasurable of people holding altcoins just bleeding perpetually against
Bitcoin while the
meme coin market was pulling 1000Xs. And if you didn't pivot there, you just had the worst time
ever, which thank God I pivoted because I was an altcoin bro as well. And altcoins will do well
this cycle too, right? They're just so big that you can't get many multiples. So it's switched
to a leverage sort of market, which if you're not a good leverage trader you're gonna get wrecked right you're probably aping into coins like i don't know
something in the top 25 i won't mention names they'll probably pull like a let's say 10x or
something like that which is an impressive amount of x's if you can hold from bottom to top but most
prices escape pretty quickly if a coin you know two know, 2x is off the low, that halves the gains that you
can make from top to bottom, right? And, you know, hitting the exact wick bottom of a high cap alt
coin is basically impossible, unless you're a monster trader. But yeah, that's why I think
people are just going to be chasing lower cap coins this whole cycle while the environment
is favorable for it. And you're just going to see an exaggerated version of what we've already seen
yeah i remember uh i remember that range man i remember um some ai stuff was popping on eth
then you had meme coin season on base and you had the boys club thing on eth mainnet
and after that you started to see some things on Sol pop off like
Retardio, Giga, Moo Moo, stuff like that.
And I don't actually just mean just meme coins.
I just mean fresh on-chain tickers.
It could be AI, bullshit, garbage.
They're all meme coins to me, right?
It could say that it has utility.
It's a fresh launch.
It's got a narrative.
People are backing it. It can do 1,000x. That simple. It doesn't have to be a picture meme. It could be anything. It's a fresh launch. It's got a narrative. People are backing it.
It can do a thousand X.
That simple.
It doesn't have to be a picture meme.
It could be anything.
They're all like, you know, the same vehicle to me.
I'm glad you converted, Donnie.
You said you were an altcoin bro.
I wanted to comment on what he said.
Because it's like, yeah, so many salty altcoin bros in 2024.
It was the wrong time.
It was the market was not ready for an alt season.
If you'd be paying attention, it's just crazy to see how much the market has changed.
Because in 2021, I'm best known on TikTok for the Shiba Inu call.
But like, I was like, hated upon like, you know, it's funny to see like,
how the markets change so much. Like if you were like talking about meme coins last cycle,
like you were a scammer, you were a terrible person, even if it was Shiba Inu and Doge,
which ended up being the top two, which was what I was kind of known for on TikTok. And it's like,
which was what I was kind of known for on TikTok.
And it's like, that's like crypto,
one of the most brilliant minds in crypto,
and I can't even say who it is,
but it's one of the top blockchain developers,
you know, in the top 10,
told me once he said,
the whole market is based on sentiment.
That's it.
So, and that really like stuck with me.
And so in 2023, when I saw what was happening on Solana with the meme coins, I just knew meme coins are going to be the dominant narrative in 2024.
It's unstoppable. They're always going to be here. They're never going to be cooked.
And it's what Donnie was saying, like only the good, strong narratives will prevail.
I love when you said I was laughing so I would
you said the ones that don't require a lot of brain cells and he's like totally right that
the more consumable something is the better it's going to do and it's going to stick around
and that I knew uh I warned my discord I put that Yeezy token in my discord I said I'm watching
this because it's relevant and we can hit some betas but there's no way in hell i'm touching this the
ceiling we're pretty much at the ceiling when it was like uh it went to like two billion or
something right because the market right now is not ready for a 10 billion dollar sender
it could not have gone much higher than that and plus it was cabal then it launched at a high
market cap so it had like this ceiling there and i thought it was that was actually good that
launched because i was watching bucky as you know is like permanently on my giant screen here chart
and some other major solana charts like troll to see if they were going to shift out of their position and rotate into that. And they did not, which tells us that like right now at this point in time
on Solana, people are really holding onto their conviction plays and they weren't doing that back
in January. So the ones that survived or barely budged in cap are very strong tokens on Solana,
which, you know, I'm reluctant to say that because
I'm an Ethereum girly, right? All my biggest plays are on Ethereum. But you know, I was watching
Bucky, obviously, like I had Bucky, and it just like held the entire time didn't even budge and
troll in fact went up. So it's like you're seeing kind of like this shift in mindset happen on Solana where people are really, these true CTOs are really gravitating around like strong narratives now.
And I think we're going to continue to see that for the cycle.
But that was the tell right there.
Because if it was just a one and done with some of these higher caps, everyone would have just sold everything, rotated into Yeezy, took their 5X, which some people did. I was watching, like people were clipping in like
300K, you know, tripled it to a million, but they weren't ripping it out of the key charts here
that we're now seeing on Solana. And, you know, meme coins have all the mindshare and all the
sentiment, and they're going to continue to be a
dominant narrative the entire cycle. It's not to say like ditch your altcoins. It's not like an
anti-altcoin thing. But people like forget in 2021, we were in the layer one bubble.
So that's why you had those altcoins 50xing, you know, doing these crazy numbers. And, you know,
the altcoin bros on TikTok are pissed at
me, but you're not going to see that this cycle as much. It's only going to be with certain altcoins
and certain projects that are relevant. It's the same thing with like, that have strong,
it sounds crazy, that has strong narratives over strong technology, because you could have the
best blockchain in the world with the best technology. And if it doesn't have mind share and easy, consumable narrative, nobody is going to buy it.
I'll tell you right now.
And, you know, that's why Bitcoin is a dominant force.
It's going to continue because it's easy to consume.
It's digital gold.
It's very easy to understand, even for like these old Wall Street guys.
So, you know, if you're missing out on on meme coin money it's like crazy because it's
just going to give you more money for bitcoin and more of your like you know long-term alt plays
but yeah like i agree with everything donnie said i was literally laughing the brain so you don't
have to have too many brain cells to pick a good narrative. And that is literally the key. That's how I knew Sheba was going to be the next big runner after Doge because it was the next Doge,
right? And I think we're on the verge of still seeing like, I know Max is super bullish on Pepe.
I had an argument with somebody for three hours last night because they were telling me that ETH
is cooked and Pepe hit a ceiling and it's done and it's over.
And I said, there is no way in hell ETH is cooked.
There's no way in hell ETH is cooked.
It's just not.
And we are going to see that ETH run.
We are going to see that Pepe run.
Then we're going to see Brett run some other things that are related on ETH.
But the Solana culture is definitely shifting and people are really holding
onto these conviction plays longer which is really good as well
and what an absolute cook session today guys uh donnie there's like let me see well there's like two other people
requesting to speak man do you want me to bring them up man yeah you think now i approved black
widow she i wanted to jump on the show i think yesterday or the day before but we ended up
wrapping up okay i'll bring up uh chai as well then I don't know who the other person is because I don't even think they're tweeting.
Give them the intro, Wabi.
I'll say that again.
Give them the intro.
What intro?
Like give the speaker the intro.
Oh, okay.
I thought you wanted me to say the whole playbook again.
Okay, so I brought up Black Widow.
I brought up Chai.
There's also like the sigma maxi i mean it looks like he's on soul a lot um but he doesn't follow us so i'm so reluctant on like
bringing up sometimes like people that i've never like ever seen before don't really have any
mutuals or like content or anything like that it just it just kind of scares me and we've had some like freaks on here before but uh i'll bring up widow widow what's up
bro how many years has it been since we've been on a space together
probably since the ftx i think i tweeted out um i tweeted out like this is Alameda's capitulation or something like that. Actually, I think you were the only one that did that.
We have a lot.
We got a lot of stories that we can use.
The bull market brings everyone together.
Definitely.
For those that say, like, oh, I want a bear market to happen. You actually don't because like a lot of lives get ruined and a lot of people, they just like end up turning into really like mean people.
wish for like a lengthy bear market like if you want a downturn you just you want to root for a
trump style bear market where it's over within like six weeks like there's never been a downturn
in markets while trump has been in charge that has lasted for more than like two months 2018
that bear market lasted like two months the covid crash lasted a couple of weeks and then this previous bear market
also lasted a couple of weeks you do not want a joe biden style bear market
remember the stories that we were like up for 12 hours at a time like on spaces just
nonsense talking like this three years ago yeah and and and during a during a
bottom like there's really not much to do um like there's really not much to do at the bottom except
like buy your spot dcaa or whatever but when the market gets moving like that's when like you
really have to apply attention you know like i remember off of the bottom from 2022
you had uh like the dino ai tokens rally and then some like weird defy tokens which i don't even
think appear on deck screener anymore i remember things like quenta um this other one called like
y2k coin on Arbitrum.
It was like a lot of these weird tickers.
GMX was another one too that used to be trending.
But what have you got for us, Widow?
Is there anything that you wanted to bring to our attention
like market-wise and all that stuff?
I mean, I was up all night longing the lows.
I gave a few days notice that I was looking for the range lows
for this. So I'm exhausted. I'm literally so tired. But it's just been a reoccurring play this
whole entire cycle for the last three years. I've been playing the same way the last three years.
So it's been a lot of fun. And the market is playing into our hand at this time. I mean,
you and Donnie have been killing it on here, saying it like it is.
You know, it's just like it's perfectly playing into your hand.
And so right now we are up from the lows.
Like a lot of people like like ourselves, we're in some 2022.
You should be massively green at this time.
So you are basically looking for continuation
slash you are in defensive mode. You are looking to do some sort of risk management, at least
with key levels, you should be massively in the green, but I am looking for continuation in this
entire market. When it tops, I'm still looking at four-year cycle-esque things.
There's other pieces of data that, of course, I'm going to let that dictate.
There's certain things I need to see for a super cycle, and there's certain things that
I need to see for a four-year cycle.
So we'll get to that when it gets to that.
Timing-wise, I would say we're closer than price-wise.
So I'm looking for a continuation.
It's going to be a ride, whatever happens.
Yeah, yeah.
I'm excited for others' BTC to go into price discovery.
And I know we're talking about new tickers and all that stuff coming out into the market
but i'm also wondering like what's going to be that ticker that's already out that's gonna like
melt face and all that stuff that's what i'm also um excited for and it's usually like
it's usually a handful of centralized exchange altcoins that also pull off monster moves um like we saw what like things like
celestia did in q4 of 23 and that thing did like a 12x up in a straight line and um that's where
i feel like i've got some edge like on centralized exchange tokens i feel like spx 6900 can honestly like shock people and dude i saw some posts at the
lows for spx 6900 not only like two days ago but also in june calling for like marad's engagement
to die down how he's washed he's cooked it's not going to come back but like marad is the only
content creator right now.
That's what everyone here is.
You're a content creator.
Even if you just post charts with analysis, you are by definition a content creator looking for people to engage with you for your alpha. One of the few content creators this cycle that has managed to have an audience with people that aren't in the market.
And that's your TikTok. That's your Twitch, right?
That demographic is not priced in in the market.
It's just not.
You have your crypto Twitter.
You have your crypto Twitter you have your crypto YouTube even though YouTube doesn't really have alpha like no disrespect or anything like that's
anyone who does like crypto YouTube but like most people have been getting their
alpha from X right and I feel like the attention is going to gravitate for the
generations that are on TikTok and Twitch and
Kik and all that stuff. Because as you start to have an aging demographic, the class of 2017
and before, they're starting to age out. They're at a point where all they're going to do is just
buy Bitcoin and majors and with some portion of their stack, they're going to rotate on chain.
They're going to rotate between centralized exchange altcoins and all that stuff.
But that new demographic, that new like younger base that's out in the workforce graduating from college, they're going to where attention is.
And if you look at the numbers of what these streaming platforms do they are
well above spaces for spaces our numbers usually go between like 300 ish on the lower end and
towards like 1100 towards the high end so it's a bit capped for youtube the cap is probably at like
5 000 to 10 000 those are the numbers that i see ben cowen get when like
things really really get hot but for twitch and kick you're talking about like hundreds of thousands
of eyes that's insane it is incredible how huge the those untapped markets are for the crypto space. And so if you're betting against Marad, you're betting against that entire demographic.
And I'm just not willing to do that.
And if others BTC isn't even in price discovery, what does that mean for any altcoin that stays relevant up until that period?
And might I add, and I'll finish off with this, once others BTC started to break its January 2018 high in late Q1 of 2021, that is when you saw ADA going crazy.
That's when you saw like DeFi putting its its blow off top Doge running to 80 cents
and all the other crazy stuff like like Matic one thing that Adani has brought to my attention
a couple of times over the last few weeks is you didn't see Matic do with like 200x until
others BTC really got its its wind on its sails.
So the best is honestly yet to come, but it's going to happen a lot quicker than people can honestly fathom.
That's what I've got.
I love that you said people have been frustrated with this cycle.
And it's like, bro, the explanation is literally so simple that Ethereum hasn't hit price discovery yet and the other's chart hasn't hit price discovery yet.
So how are people expecting an alt mania unless we were able to get to those levels?
And right now the market is literally handing us this opportunity.
So I'm with you.
Donnie, is there anything that you wanted to say say i saw you got off mute man
nah nah i think i'm overcooked for today bro that was an incredible show
and uh ragsy check your uh check your telegram real quick
i'll i'll uh pass it on over to chai and then i'm gonna i'm gonna i'm gonna wrap up the show
but but but guys if you are enjoying content, this is your first time tuning in and you've enjoyed what's been said here on the show over the last two hours.
We go live here on X Spaces throughout the week.
Our usual start time is between 4.30 p.m. EST to 4.45 p.m. EST.
The shows are recorded and they usually go on for about an hour,
hour and a half, sometimes a little bit longer if there's a lot to discuss such as today.
So if you like what you've heard today, feel free to follow not only the BecauseBitcoin
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turn on bell notice for the because bitcoin account so you
can be made aware of uh whenever we go live and also for uh real-time news across the markets as
we are one of the fastest news producing platforms uh for all of crypto so child what's going on man
what's up hi bro what's up uh i I actually joined it the second time last week.
I also joined it.
And I really loved when people shared the insight on this session.
So I just wanted to say hi to everyone.
And I really like the way Donny represents it on his Twitter and you guys are interested.
So it is a kind of pure alpha kind of thing, alpha kind of space for me and i love to spend my
hour and a half on this space so i just wanted to glad i just wanted to be glad and i'm glad
to be here thank you so much for having me in this space hey man thank you thank you thank you thank you uh for the kind words man thank you for uh
the words of encouragement and all that stuff i appreciate you brother and uh i'm glad you uh
came on up and uh spread some some positivity bro god bless you god bless you and your family and um
i hope uh you make a ton of money this cycle, man.
I really hope you do.
But no problem, brother.
No problem.
But guys, I'm going to go ahead and wrap up today's show.
Thank you for all of you that tuned in.
And also shout out to all of the speakers.
Once again, guys guys if you want to
keep up with what we do here follow because bitcoin account and also do yourselves a favor
and follow all the other speakers we'll be back on monday at the same time and as for myself i'll
be going live as i usually do on weekends on x live and also on Twitch, I'll be going live tomorrow,
hopefully with will.
And yeah,
guys,
thank you all.
so very much.
And for those of you that are new here and you guys are looking to add some
tools to your arsenal,
some things to help you navigate the markets feel free to follow bb
terminal it's our very own trading terminal we'll be adding trade on-chain trading execution in the
next couple of weeks essentially we are building a a uh a bridge list deck so you'll be able to
a bridge list deck so you'll be able to swap between uh soul on chain base avax anything that
you can trade all within one interface and if you want to uh upgrade your package and have
some premium indicators we do have those available just follow the links up above on the nest and if
you guys want to join our inner circle trading alpha group you guys can
check out the links in our bio as well if you guys have any questions in regards to that as we do have
uh private live streams that are all in a separate archive channel you can always send us a message
and also feel free to feel free to check out Donnie's group and also Ragsy groups.
They run some pretty tight ships there as well.
But guys, thank you all so much.
Shout out to Donnie.
Shout out to Rags.
Shout out to Widow.
Shout out to Grant for also joining.
Oh, man, Donnie.
Well, what a way to do that. that uh that photo that you said that's funny
man that's funny uh but guys thank you all so much god bless you all have a good safe rest um
of your week and damn dude bucky is uh absolutely going for it, bro. My gosh, bro. Buckshot season. Oh, man.
All right, boys
and ladies, of course.
And ladies, of course.
We'll see you all on the next show.
Feel free to check out
the Twitch stream tomorrow
and also on
Sunday.
Yeah, guys. What an
incredible show. What an incredible show. The spaces are recorded
as always. So take care, guys. God bless you all. And shout out to my Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ,
for allowing me another day of health to talk markets with you all. What an incredible turnout,
man. This week has been filled with so much alpha man so
much good times on these spaces man um i'm gonna stop yapping now peace out guys Oh I'm so good. Don't give up. You're the only one.
I want to.
I see your face at the time I'm free.
Oh, my God.
I see your face at the time I'm free.
I see your face at the time I'm free.
I see your face at the time I'm free.
I see your face at the time I'm free.
I see your face at the time I'm free.
Oh, my God. I see your face at the time I'm you. I love you. Thanks. I love you.
I love you.
I love you.
I love you.
I love you.
I love you.
I love you.
I love you.
I love you.
I love you.
I love you.
I love you.
I love you. I love yeah. Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, you feel what you love me, cause you feel such a woman, you got a star, you make
everything, you want a star, you got a star, you got a star, you got a star, you got
a star, you got a star, you got a star, you got a star, you got a star, you got a star Oh I'm going to go to the next one. Yes. No! I'm going to go to the next one. I wanna touch you Thank you.
