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Market Talk- FED CUTS RATES!!200k BTC incoming!? Alt season loading?
Recorded: Sept. 17, 2025 Duration: 1:00:51Space Recording
Short Summary
The crypto market is poised for significant growth as the Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts signal increased investment opportunities. With emerging trends in partnerships and retail interest, investors are encouraged to actively engage in the evolving landscape, anticipating substantial price movements in various assets.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. and
and I can't remember anything, I can't tell if this is true or dear.
Deep down inside I'll feel the scream, it's a terrible sight that stops me.
Now that no more is through with me, I'm waking up my kid, I'll see
That thanks to my heart's little to me
Nothing is real but me
I'll hold my breath this hour with so dear
Oh please God, wait me Back in the home it's much too real It looks like that I'm always real Can't do what I want to do Look to the time when I live
That's what the dream sticks on me
Just like I walked a novel day
Time to showtime to me
But this life I've forgotten
I hold my breath this time with your dear
Oh please God wait me I'll hold my breath inside with your tear. Oh, please, God, wait. Oh Oh so so Stop this! I'm not, threatening myself, fighting my only fear.
Not my ass, taking my sight, taking my speech, taking my hearing, taking my arms, taking my legs,
taking my soul, and be with life in hell. Yeah! Yeah. so
so music so
guys welcome back.
You know, I love starting these spaces a lot of the time with this song.
It's usually either One by Metallica, the Karate Kid song, Deftones.
And my personal favorite is between this one and hearts on fire from rocky four
and uh it's usually like when i'm excited about the market expanding whether it's on
chain or majors but guys welcome back to market talk excuse my voice if it sounds a bit raspy
Excuse my voice if it sounds a bit raspy.
I'm actually intaking more calories than usual.
And usually whenever I do that, there comes a point where, like, I eat so much that sometimes I feel nauseous.
And that's just what it takes sometimes when you're trying to be as strong as humanly possible.
So this morning, I actually had woken up in the middle of my sleep, and I nearly puked my brains out.
But that just is what it is.
And you have to ask yourself, how far are you willing to go for your goals?
But the Fed cut rates today by 25 basis
points and the price action is actually a little bit different compared to uh last year's cut in
that first september meeting i remember we were actually rage pumping going into it and it was
also the day that cz had had had been released out of jail.
But something interesting is that earlier this week, CZ had actually changed his bio
from ex-Binance to Binance.
And he's actually shouting out some tickers now, which is honestly fantastic.
He's pumping people's bags.
But it's tickers that no one has really ever heard of.
But it's tickers that no one has really ever heard of.
And I know he's associated with this one investment firm called YZI, something like that, YZI Labs.
And they're going to crime up some charts.
And even if I don't own those bags, even if you don't own those bags, even if I don't own those bags, you have to applaud when people are winning.
That's how bull markets are formed.
When you see tickers that you've never even heard of, start rage pumping.
But nonetheless, I'm here joined by Donnie.
Today's show is probably only going to be like 45 minutes if I'm being honest.
I can't really speak for that long, unfortunately.
for that long unfortunately but 25 basis points and I believe they're set to cut two more times
at least and we don't really have that much access froth going into the end of the year the year
practically ends for markets in 12 weeks usually by mid-December most of the volatility to the upside is already in and it's
really only all coins that follow for the remainder of that second half of december after majors have
their uh massive rally usually um by the second week of december at least that's how the trend
has been that was a trend last year that was also the trend in 2023. So I'm just going based off of that.
And there is no huge election or any stuff like that to look forward to.
No news on the strategic Bitcoin reserve front.
So there's not much.
There's not many event catalysts.
And everyone at this point already knows that rate cuts are probably going to continue
for at least two more times for the next two Fed meetings.
And there was an interesting discussion that I saw on X earlier this week talking about froth
and what that froth leads to, which is usually some bear markets and last bull market we had things
like uh like ftx um celsius block fly these ponzi platforms and the only thing we have remotely even
close to that are these uh digital asset treasury companies which aren't even close to the amount of leverage that was in the system
3ac had a total um total assets under management for 3ac was like seven plus billion or something
like that i think actually a little over 10 billion so they would loop their clients portfolio
with leverage and they were borrowing to the gills they were borrowing from
everybody um of course everyone knows what happened in 2022 anytime these companies started falling
and that's just not the case this cycle you don't really have like a retail platform or retail is
excited to get yield on their btc and it's also a big reason why we
probably won't really see that much retail pop in yeah they'll buy some meme coins here and there
but as far as the frenzy from last cycle that's probably going to take some time and that's why
despite prices marking up that's why despite some meme coins going to billions despite Seoul going
to 300 bucks despite some on-chain opportunities you
don't really see that much retail interest because they got they all got blown out to kingdom come
where the sun don't shine six feet under uh with some of the events that had that happened in 2022
and it actually caused some ripple effects some of this stuff was on the news so what little retail
has come in um has really only bought a select few assets.
And most of the buying pressure is coming from these DATs now for majors and Tradify.
So I think we're all lucky to be here, to be honest.
I think we're a lot luckier than we know.
I think we did have some surge of retail last year though with moonshot but that was only for
a short period of time and um what trended were things that like not not many people expected
it was all ai slot bots it's like yay retail is gonna buy my memes no man they're gonna buy some
ai chat gpt rappers and uh what happened happened it really
reminds me of d5 summer to be honest like if there was if there was anything that was remotely close
to the insanity of d5 summer it was probably ai and i remember being active in d5 summer and
people were just like wow you're telling me that I could just log on into some anime website, some food market website and earn like 10,000% APR.
Why would I do that when I could just buy Chainlink, right?
And that was the narrative when AI was trending.
It was the only thing that me and Donnie were talking about on the show, by the way, from like October all the way through December.
It was just AI, AI, AI.
And I remember some of the comments. They were like, like oh why don't you talk about like xyz token and it's like dude
no one's buying that there's no notional buyer liquidity that's coming into the market it's
telling you that it's going to go into moonshot and buying these like ai slot bots and you have
to take advantage of this opportunity because whenever this market has trended over the last two and a half years where there's opportunity, it usually lasts only a few weeks.
And that's why you have people like with their hands behind their tails wondering like, why does the cycle suck so much?
It's not that the cycle sucks so much.
It's that you need to be active.
You need to be active in this market, whether it's on spaces, whether it's through like a network on Solana. You have to be active. You need to be active in this market, whether it's on spaces, whether it's through a network on Solana.
You have to be active.
You can't be complacent in HODL.
If you look at a lot of these altcoins, they've been perma-topped against Bitcoin for like 18 months now.
If you look at the top 100, there's only a handful of tokens that have actually done any numbers.
a handful of tokens that have actually done any numbers and that that that kind of brought me back
to my bullish thesis on pump when it was like on the floor at a billion dollars market cap like
who's gonna buy some of these vc alts like dude no one is going to buy um i don't really want to
talk crap about some tokens but like a lot of the tokens in the top 100 they
just did not have and still don't have as good as good as an rr as pump does uh they just don't and
i i i just think that like a lot of these alts um despite my belief that others btc is going to go into price discovery i just think a lot of
these alts are probably going to be replaced by some new ones and um i think there was a stream
that me and donnie did and he he brought that point up right like when things really really
start to get frothy once the iwm actually goes into price discovery you'll probably see like a lot of peanut the squirrel type of moves
come out for some of these uh new tokens that still aren't even out uh in the market and um
some moves can actually come from new vc alts like avantus shout out to prometheus for that one that
thing is up like four or five x uh since he called it out actually i think it's up like three almost four x excuse me and um those are kind of my thoughts guys uh i got donnie up
here but before we officially get started with this uh mini yap session if you guys want to show
some love to the space click the spaces tab right up above our profile pictures go ahead and click that little link that
says x.com slash i slash spaces smash up the like button smash up that repost button if you're
excited for what's to come which i believe we are going to have a uh a mini blow off um just get
just given the two rate cuts that are going to come in even if um
even if it only lasts a couple of weeks as it has uh in the past last year the froth only lasted
a handful of weeks same thing with 2023 i'm excited so if you're excited guys hit up that
like button hit up that repost button spaces are recorded as always so donnie man you know i i called you late
last night and i said brother this is an emergency something exclusive that i have to tell you i gotta
i gotta give you the alpha scott descent is about to unload once again.
And isn't it funny, man, that like everyone was expecting some insane move, including myself, the day of Ray Cuts.
And Price just kind of did nothing.
I think this was like the most nothing burger FOMC for price action. So to me, it just tells me, all right, we'll probably see some like God candle out of nowhere in the next like 72
hours or something like that. At the very latest, um, and, uh,
in the next two weeks, usually like two weeks after FOMC, we usually,
we've usually gotten some trending move. At least that's how the trend has been since that FOMC,
which was honestly insane from May.
Future FOMCs after that one, two weeks after the meeting,
we've had some trending moves.
So welcome, man.
Looking forward to this discussion.
That should now be no more than 30 minutes
according to my uh according to my calculations that's what we always say bro and then someone
joins in last minute it's like when a restaurant's about to close and you come in for the last meal
and they all throw off it nah uh yeah the market, you know, trying to price in whatever signal they could get from the FOMC.
But honestly, there was no real signal from the FOMC.
I guess the main thing that you can take away from the FOMC is that nothing bearish occurred, right?
They didn't halt rates.
They didn't do a 50 basis point cut, which you could have speculated could have been downside.
It was literally as expected.
And the further rate cuts that the
market was already expecting are there as well. I think the two main points that were like
somewhat signal were that Jerome got asked about, well, he actually mentioned that the tariff
effects are likely a one-time thing and they're transitory. He actually mentioned that I think
at the last FOMC as well,
which we took note of, and that's super important
because he's basically telling you that they will choose
the labor market over the inflation side
and not worry too heavily about tariffs.
Obviously, he's still trying to frame it in a way
that we need to see that that's the case,
but clearly they're leaning in that direction.
And yeah, so he's now accommodating to the labor market,
which is obviously cuts started with the 25 basis point cut
that the market was expecting.
No changes there.
And obviously kind of the main signal that you could take,
and again, I'm trying to stress that there wasn't really much signal,
is he got asked how is a 25 basis point cut going to even do anything,
basically. And he was just, he actually made the remarks to the market that the market is pricing
in further cuts on top of this one, as in like, we're going to be, he's giving you the forward
guidance of that they are going to accommodate this labor market
weakness. But he mentioned the market itself, which is unprofessional, and he shouldn't do that
because they don't use that, by his words, as a gauge of what they should do. But he mentioned
it anyway because he was kind of lost for words there. So that was kind of like a little bit of
something, but nothing that the market is going to trade over. It was just kind of a hint at that,
something but nothing nothing that the market is going to trade over it was just kind of a hint
at that okay they are really transitioning into easing basically um so yeah now just basing it off
of the price action we we're maintaining price above 114 to 114.9 the key level to get above
uh from that bottoming phase was 114.9 we We've held that pretty strongly, even with the shakeout of the FOMC day or whatever.
So we're kind of in between two key points,
that 114.9 and the 117.4 upside level.
So as long as we're maintaining the downside level,
I think that upside level is basically coming next.
If you get an impulsive break above that, I honestly think you could get an all-time
high with a 90% weighting within this month. So if we get a convincing break, let's say
like tomorrow or the next day or the following day, then I'm just targeting a new all-time
high or at least close to it by the end of this month, which is super rapid price
action. Of course, BTC can move very quickly in a matter of days and that's typically what it does.
But if we do lose the 114.9 upside level that we broke above, then I'm just expecting a higher low
around 112 and then go for the higher high above 117.4. So again, both outcomes for me,
higher high above 117.4. So again, both outcomes for me, like my most probable outcomes are still
eventually going to a higher high. And I think that the low is in at 107.2 or whatever it was,
the odds of taking that low for me are super, super low. And especially because if there was
a time to dump the price, it was today, if you wanted to go for those lows and I guess that didn't happen so if that's nice to
see also checking the price action from today we've technically we're about to close or we'll
see how it closes but we're likely to close the day red right on a bitcoins chart and it's kind
of reminding me of the last year September cut of Of course, that was a 50 basis point cut, but you had similar market dynamics, i.e.
you had global liquidity breaking out of a multi-year range.
Global liquidity has been trending up into the right nonstop since the April lows.
And back in that 2024 setup, you basically put in the higher low after the 49k WIC on
August 5th, and then you rallied all
the way into FOMC, you pulled back for three days going into the event. And then on the actual day,
the 16th or whatever it was, you had a red day, and then you rallied, right, you rallied super
hard after that. So we're kind of we've kind of done the same thing. We just had this 107k bottom
rallied all the way into FOMC, and
then we've had this pullback and a bit of
chop above
114.9 and below 117.4,
and on the day-to-day
it's red.
It's seeming very similar.
The fact that FOMC wasn't bearish
means all of the other bullish
factors
that we've got at play are going to play out now.
There was nothing to cause some sort of panic sell-off or anything like that.
Therefore, DXY down, gold up, more rate cuts coming.
Everything we've been talking about endlessly should start to play out in the price
because there's nothing stopping it from doing that.
So yeah, I'm just excited to
get past these local annoying things because the bigger picture hasn't changed basically since the
April lows. It's only incrementally been confirming from those lows and even more so now with the Fed
jumping in on cuts. It's literally just adding to the equation that we've got, which is a very
bullish equation. So yeah, none of this like short term
noise really actually matters in the end, because all you have to do is just literally hold, be
convicted, see the playbook, and then it just happens all at once. And you end up printing,
you know, an insane amount of money. So that's, that's kind of my thoughts around today and what
we've got coming ahead. And I guess I'll touch on one more point that you were talking about with
like, you know, we haven't had this, we haven't had that,
we haven't had all these other things.
Well, the main thing is we haven't had the conditions for those things to happen,
which those conditions are ahead.
Therefore, we can't rule out that they're not going to happen
until we get the UFR conditions, again, which lie ahead.
So even though we don't have whatever all those companies doing,
all this kind of crime and all that,
you'll see how much that'll change when BTC is in deep price discovery and Ether is pushing 10,
15k, Sol, 800, 1000, maybe even above that with Bitcoin dominance nuking. Yeah, you're going to
have some extreme price action purely off of the math. You're going to be three, maybe even more
X bigger than the last market cycle in terms of size. So any rotations
out of a 3X larger market from last cycle into on-chain markets, eventually that money does
find itself further out on the risk curve, you're going to absolutely have some disgusting winners,
probably zero to four or five bill coming out of the on-chain market, or maybe not even zero. Maybe they start around 50, 100, whatever, however they do their launches.
But yeah, all of the best is still to come.
And without going too deep into the whole macro side of things,
which we try and go through it slowly week to week,
you're at the, not at the start,
but you're at the start of the acceleration part of it.
You know, we were discussing about the move index.
I think I actually had a post actually.
I'll try and put it on the nest real quick.
Where is it?
Here we go.
Check out this chart.
I'll just quickly explain it in the most simple way possible.
This is the move index, which is basically just the treasury simple way possible. This is the move index,
which is basically just the treasury market volatility index.
So kind of like the VIX of the treasury market.
And we can all agree that the treasury market
is the most important market in the world,
especially, you know,
it's kind of like the pillar of the financial system.
So it's super important to not have a volatile treasury market
for collateral issues, things like that, right?
Just to dumb it down in its simplest form.
If you just look at this chart visually, when we had the COVID spike, comparing it to the tariff spike, it's very similar.
And they've contained that bond volatility.
You remember how stressed they were when you had that volatility spike.
Even the Fed was making public remarks saying that like, yo, don't worry kind of thing.
We've got the tools to stabilize the market if needed kind of thing.
Because if this thing collapses, it's very, very bad for the United States.
So they can't let that happen ever, no matter what.
So this volatility has been crushed since then.
You can see obviously a clear spike between those two times.
And you can see on Bitcoin's chart how pivotal that was for BTC in that moment.
Obviously, you can overlay like SPX, the Russell, everything on top.
Well, let's just look at Bitcoin.
You had the COVID sell-off into that bond volatility spike, and then they contained it.
The 10-year yield dropped, the dollar dropped along with it, and all of those correlate to one another.
And then you had the massive acceleration phase in risk, basically.
and then you had the massive acceleration phase in risk basically.
But that same thing has happened or very similarly
during this tariff event that we had in early April,
which marked the bottom, right?
You sold off heavily going into it, marked the bottom,
and now BTC has been rallying ever since.
You look at the dollar, nuking.
You look at 10-year yields now, rolling over.
So we're kind of entering that phase
of where things really do start to accelerate.
And you just have to give it a little bit more time.
Of course, we've had endless patience.
This whole cycle has taken a lot longer than we thought.
But the reward on the other side
remains what the reward was every other cycle,
if not greater.
Because even in that COVID cycle,
sure, you had a bunch of liquidity flooding the system,
but you didn't have real growth anywhere. You had the opposite. Now this time, they're trying to get some sort of real growth out of this whole AI thing, out of the Fed jumping in with rate cuts now, trying to goose the ISM higher. The Russell is kind of sniffing that out. So you've got a much more bullish setup than you did even last cycle, even though they flooded the system with money. Because even
anecdotally, if I looked around me and NZ at the time, businesses were still shut down, you got
given some money. Once that money was gone, you didn't have any more money to basically play with,
right? But if businesses are doing well, and people are being paid a little bit more, things
like that, that's what's really going to cause retail to come into these markets
and start bidding everything that they want to bid.
And they'll be buying green and selling higher.
That's just the market dynamic.
And all of this takes multiple quarters and definitely multiple months
to actually play out and trickle through the economy and everything.
So again, however I look at it,
it seems that we're going into at least somewhere around mid-26, but more probably late-26 with all of this going down.
Especially just looking at this move index and the dollar.
And we know the dollar has a lot of downwards pressure on it with the amount of stimulus that's needed on the U.S. Treasury side.
So, yeah, we're kind of just starting the fun part or yet to begin it, really.
Donnie, so here's the synopsis for people that want a more broken down version, right?
want a more broken down version, right? I'm sure you all work out. The show is specifically
I'm sure you all work out.
tailored for bodybuilding and powerlifting enthusiasts. So what Donnie is saying is,
don't try and get by or you'll get dealt with and trapped. Triceps, biceps, deltoids and traps and um so that that's basically
the market off of today guys see you on the next stream
nah but for real though man um dude it is crazy how um wild market conditions and sentiment can change.
I actually do think that like PumpFun is going to be that like retail platform.
Even if like the whole streamer coin meta is kind of like it's been like washed over and over and over again.
If you remember last year, it was like the TikTok memes, the animal tokens.
And then that kid who like tried rugging his token, the Gen Z kid.
And like the token went to like 100 mil or something like that.
And now you have like these bag work kids and all that stuff.
And people love to grave dance saying, ha ha, I told you so, I told you so.
Love to grave dance saying, ha ha, I told you so, I told you so.
But it's like, bro, how are you going to expect retail to come in if there's like no normie kind of appeal?
And the normie appeal is streams.
Like the narrative is not dead in my opinion, but the tokens, it's going to take some time for like an actual token to to like have that staying power
but that token is pump itself in in in my book like sort of how something like avax went viral
last cycle just because of like hedge funds such as 3ac i think pump could be that token that creates like frenzy right you
have exposure to the streaming virality which is actually competing with tick tock in my opinion
not twitch um or youtube like these onk platforms but with stuff like tick tock right if something's
going viral perhaps pump uh you'll have some streams covering it.
There is some degeneracy on that platform, but nonetheless, that's just what goes viral.
And as far as, like, other things, it's really difficult for me to see right now.
for me to see right now but i mean just take a look what happened early last year man you had
But, I mean, just take a look at what happened early last year, man.
memes trending in q1 of last year and then in q4 you had a bunch of ai going crazy to the point
where like farcoin um made national news for weeks on end they were talking about farcoin
yeah um i think even goat appeared on cnbc withessen. And it's like, whoa, I didn't expect this.
I thought like XYZ meme coin was going to be in the front of the news, right?
Like consensus in Q1, at least for Solana, last year was whiff.
solana last year was with oh just by with it's gonna go to 20 bucks right and then it's like
Oh, just by whiff, it's going to go to $20, right?
you fast forward a couple of quarters later and it's like just a bunch of ai slop yeah um
and now it's probably gonna it's probably gonna be pump and like these rwas like cards in in my
opinion go ahead bro you were gonna say something i was just gonna say say before any of that
speculation
just comes that you need to have
the centerpiece of the equation in check
which is market conditions
right? In 2023
when we had the rally from
I think it was like September or October
the Fed had
started to signal
that they were going to pivot from,
I think the words that they used were something along the lines of
we're coming to the top of the hiking cycle.
Something like that, which signaled to the market that rates might start coming down,
which actually marked the bottom in September or October.
And we had one, two, three, four, five, six,
seven months straight of green candles on the Bitcoin chart,
if you could jump on the monthly chart,
literally seven months straight of upside from that point
as that playbook started to unfold.
And I think the next meeting in December of that year
or something like that, they actually gave forward guidance on four cuts to come right so the market
was pricing in four cuts it was super euphoric against seven months straight of upside plus you
had the Bitcoin ETF rumor confirmation and then it going live like it was just a multitude of things
giving you insane market conditions because that was
the closest we've been to a quote-unquote bull run this whole cycle. And even then, again,
you poked your head above the prior all-time high and got smacked back down. So that's still not
a real bull market. And that's where you had the birth of the meme coin narrative. And obviously,
those went parabolic. Pepe doing exceptionally well, a bunch of other coins doing insanely well as well with Bank, all that. That was what good market conditions looked like. Again, good, not
insane. And you had the birth of those narratives, whatever. Fast forward to Q4 of 2024, you had
three months of upside from the September low, but the September low was very shaky.
And so you really had a very short lived
sense of decent market conditions. And you still had tokens going way past a billion,
some going very close to a billion, had tons and tons of runners. So it doesn't matter what the
narratives were at the time, it could have been anything. It's the key ingredient of the market
conditions being absolutely wild that give the opportunity for the market to bid these things and speculate on them.
If the market conditions are shit, it doesn't matter if that prior narrative, let's say it never even came out, the meme coin narrative, it never became big.
And it came out in a bearish period.
No one's going to care because the conditions aren't there for it.
So again, let's get these conditions in check.
And all of these narratives will spawn and everyone will bid them.
There'll be something new and they'll go to billions.
And all of these prior tokens that are half decent as well
will also probably get close to that number,
if not greater than that number, if they're good tokens.
I think that's what we were discussing on Monday.
What if cards actually came out in q4 of last year yeah or or even or even that 2023 run again it was seven months straight of
upside first time hitting an all-time high before the halving you literally went from 22k to 74k
non-stop right you had like little pullbacks in between it was basically non-stop and even then you had bitcoin dominance trending higher so again it was good market conditions and
that was frothy bro you had altcoins i was still in like utility coins and stuff like that
and trading them you had altcoins like gaming coins and pulling like two three hundred x
during that time period like that was the greatest runner we've had this cycle. And even then, it didn't check all the boxes
of a true crypto bull run,
which again, we're kind of getting to that phase right now.
And I think it's just going to be wild
because the prior worst examples
that we've had last year in 2023 were pretty good,
especially that 2023 one.
It was insane.
You could have made millions and millions and millions.
Yeah. especially that 2023 one that was insane like you could have made millions and millions and millions yeah i mean i think that period is starting soon cz like if you guys check on cz's profile
his bio says bmb chain yzi labs google academy and binance it used to say former binance um
and he's actually shouting out some tickers and um
they're like utility tickers i remember when he was showing like random memes on bnb chain which
ah man memes in bnb chain i tell you what that was uh a weird period in the market last year
yeah that was a good period last cycle, though.
Oh, yeah, yeah.
Pancake.
Anytime I open Pancake, I get this
rush of nostalgia, bro.
Yeah.
Didn't BNB hit
like a thousand?
Recently? Nah, I think it got close, though.
It's getting close
yeah it was like 900 something yeah um man that ticker bro uh was worth like a few cents
eight years ago crazy to think my my brothers had that ticker at um i think in the sense like
in the sense and they were like just not sure
at the time obviously crypto noobs
and I think they wanted
to put like a few thousand into it or something
but they never did and yeah look
at it now yeah they definitely had it
in the sense like literally as
it launched kind of thing and it
became a monster
yeah
even with ETH like people had time to buy ETH at like a buck became a monster. Yeah.
Even with ETH, people had time to buy ETH at like a buck,
two bucks,
90 cents. I still have screenshots of
like $40 ETH.
Things like that.
Man.
the times were different though.
ETH didn't really have a huge narrative other than ICOs.
Like, the only point of buying ETH was to do ICOs.
And that was under the Trump admin, which was fantastic, man.
There was a chart that I was looking at, bro, World Liberty Fi.
Like, what if that thing actually marks up?
Like, what if it actually becomes what Trump was supposed to be, where it actually goes into price discovery,
but it just takes some time rather than all of its price action happening within 48 hours?
If you look at the chart, it kind of looks like, I don't want to say it, but like Pengu or something like that, where it comes out, pumps for like the first few hours and then just giga dumps.
And then it starts to have like a really slow recovery.
I think the ticker is WLFI. w l yeah w l fi if you pull out like the eight hour you'll probably see what i'm looking at or
maybe the one hour uh hold on i'm on my phone now yeah i'm looking at the four hour the four hour
if you pull up the four hour you'll see like it has that first huge initial spike and then it starts to
grind down retest of the highs dump back down higher low so maybe there is something there
to uh be mindful of like if world liberty fight goes into price discovery
everything is uh in euphoria in my opinion bro
yeah this chart's got no real signal yet like it's literally you look at it it could go up it
could go down um there's no real like structure that i can see to bid it but it could definitely
form something probably gonna keep an eye on it do think ChumpCoin will ever go back to its highs?
Let me check it out.
I just have this feeling, bro, that everything will go higher
and a lot higher than people expect
just because of the macro setup.
People are still prepared to just instantly sell their bags
as soon as we actually enter that phase
that I just spoke about for the last half hour on this show.
Whereas I think it's going to last 6 to 12 months into 2026.
So, and that, I think people are forgetting
how much upside you can have
if you have five months back-to-back of green.
Like we had seven months back-to-back of green in 2023.
But this time in price discovery
with a Bitcoin dominance full nuke,
like we haven't had conditions like that.
So yeah, people are very eager to just sell
on a few multiples or as soon as they get into the green.
I guarantee you on my life,
they will buy way higher than they sell.
Like they have never
experienced like escaping price action across the board where you take out your money and everything
runs away and you're like wow i am completely priced out i either bid or i sit this one out
and you can't sit it out because your friends are going to come in and they're going to make more
money than you and they didn't go through three years of pain waiting for that moment to actually win.
And you fumbled last minute.
And they come in, you're the crypto guy.
And they're making more money than you by being reckless.
Yeah.
And you know what's something that people haven't really caught on to?
Seoul is at macro range highs, just chilling.
Sol is at macro range highs, just chilling.
It's actually putting in some four-hour, eight-hour candles
without any crazy froth going on.
So when the froth actually comes back,
I think it would actually be more sustainable
because people are actually bidding Sol
rather than just buying Sol to buy on-chain alts.
Look at what happened with ETH, right?
Like ETH ran to 5k methodically and he only had a handful of tickers.
So by the time, like, if ETH ever has that on-chain craziness that it did in Q4 of last year with AI, it'd probably be more sustainable.
You'll probably have more raise, which is, like, hopefully something to look forward to
later this year, early next year, man.
I see Luke. I'm going to bring him up.
I know he requested.
Yo, what's up, Luke?
Luke Skywalker.
How's it going guys?
Yo, do you hear me?
Yeah, how you guys doing?
Um, yeah, I think it's funny how Donnie was talking about how everyone's like just waiting to sell I think
People are just stuck on this
Like it's all over in two
months narrative. And I think it's interesting to see how it plays out, but I'm just looking at all
these long-term charts and like everything's about to break out of like this massive cup and handle like every a lot of assets looks
very similar so yeah i'm with donnie i think i think it's gonna surprise people
with how high and how much longer it takes to play out this time
play out this time.
Yeah, the only way that I could see us having
some sort of massive drawdown in the next immediate term,
let's say, or short term, let's say,
a couple of months or three months down the line,
is if we go way higher first.
There's no other way in my head.
If BTC went to like 180k
or even approaching 200
in the next two to three months,
then you would be stupid
not to take some off the board
purely to rebuy lower
when things do eventually
have a big pullback from there
because that's a massive rally.
But other than that,
if we just creep up to like 140, 150,
I'm not really too phased by that
I don't think you're going to have some sort of imminent drawdown
I will still be taking profit just to rebuy lower
if I do think or see that that's the case
but other than that the actual cycle itself
because most people can't even define what cycle they're looking at
and there's many cycles it's not just the Bitcoin cycle
or this four year halving cycle that everyone seems to agree on there's many cycles at play that to me the market
cycle the liquidity cycle and everything that's flowing around what trump is doing and their
playbook to me with how all of these charts are shaping up it goes into 2026 and it has a decent
likelihood of playing out the whole of 2026.
So let's see. I mean, when you go look at the chart of like IWM and these things, like going back, you're just, I mean, you don't see an instance where you have this like multi-year recovery that's just about to break out and it just fades like right away there
there really there isn't an example i mean i don't know if you've seen an example of it but
like the setup just says like we're gonna once you break out of a base that big it goes way higher like oh i'm just
do you agree like i just don't see anything in history that says there's not really good examples
to validate the bears argument where it's like we're just gonna maybe get a little higher and we're going to go deflation bust.
I mean, I guess bears are just betting on a recession, right?
Or like a credit event.
Yeah.
But again, even if that's the case, you're going to have massive upside first.
So you're still going to absolutely print before any of that happens.
going to absolutely print before any of that happens because they will try and stimulate as
much as they can to catch if there is a skidding economy of that caliber that people are kind of
equating for you're going to get a ton of stimulus before that happens which you know the market's
going to love and bid which is their whole argument of like up down and then sorry up first and then
a massive drawdown after but yeah we'll see how it out. I don't think that's going to happen.
There's too many things
headed in the right direction.
That chart that I shared in the nest,
I don't know if you looked at it,
but move index headed in the right direction,
yields falling lower,
the dollar is going in a bear market basically.
And you're having technical charts
on the verge of a breakout right now.
So how is it going to end
in that short of a time span?
I don't know.
Unless you have extreme upside first
so either way it's a win-win and you the sentiment's too bad too to put in a top like
even like ai all the sentiment readings in the normal market Like it's all time highs for half the year.
And people like think that it's not real,
which is further for longer.
Like as long as people stay skeptical and like let the news scare them into
thinking something bad's going to happen or they don't like Trump.
So there's even more skeptical like as long as that's happening you don't you're not going to put in a macro top
yeah i don't think so either and like yeah people calling for like um you know some sort of imminent
crash that completely nukes the market and stuff.
We'll see if they sell the top as close as they think and sit in cash that whole time.
And what if it doesn't play out?
I see a bunch of people that are just trying to get
newsletter subscribers and stuff.
Yeah, I don't know.
It could all be a nefarious act like
that no i mean it's just people are trying to preempt the call like you the the trends are all
pointing up like let's see like a higher a lower high or some let's see the trend breaking down
before we're trying to like say we have great depression or dot-com boom like in six months
well guys i'm gonna go ahead and wrap up the show man um i think we discussed a lot of cool topics
we back tomorrow at the same time i gotta go to church now but i want to thank you donnie for coming up and yapping
with me luke thank you so much for coming up man i hope uh you've been doing well man and um guys
we got two more ray cuts coming by the end of the year and um solana is uh putting in some candles at macro range highs. Same thing what ETH did in late July before it tapped 5K.
So exciting things happening with majors.
Pump leading the market.
Hype following right behind pump.
So we have our winners for majors.
And on-chain should be getting very interesting in my opinion.
But thank you all so much. Feel free to give us a follow if it's your first time tuning in turn on bell notice so you
can be made aware of when it is that we go live which is usually monday through friday start time
between 4 30 p.m esc to 4 45 p.m esc and the spaces are recorded i'm usually joined by donnie
and we yap on everything,
price action, narratives, dubious speculation, macro, trap fight, all that stuff. We also have a YouTube show that's hosted at 11 a.m. ESC and that show is called Market Check. That's our TA
show, but for spaces, our show here, Market Talk, hosted by me, Wabi, and Donnie. That show is usually hosted between 4.30 p.m. ESC to 4.45.
Both shows usually last about an hour or so, sometimes a little bit longer depending on the day.
And we'll see you all on the next one.
Feel free to check out our links in the bio for all things premium packages, including our trading terminal and also our inner circle alpha
group and if you guys have any questions feel free to send us a dm and we'll get back to you within
24 hours thank you all so much i'll see you all on the next one shout out to my lord and savior
jesus christ for allowing me another day to talk markets with each and every single one of you
god bless you and all of your families. Have a good
rest of your Wednesday or Thursday, depending on where you are. And hopefully you guys can join us
for our next stream tomorrow, Thursday. Bye guys. See you on the next one. Take care. Thank you. I'm not ready to leave. Till the day that I hit 20 flies I know that they'll make an adult leave
I know that I'm not quite ready to leave
And now I've got some friends
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When I said some things that I need
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I opened up a letter
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But now it's the end of life
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Repent with me so young
Till the end of time We realise the inside
It's all I know is the end
I went to the doctor again
Said I was behind on my rent
He told me it's not a problem for him
I said that you're sick at this end
And now I've got some friends
I've been like the other day
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They've been talking about a lot of stuff that I did
They were doing people just now it's the end It's all I know is the end I can't believe that I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I'm a girl, but I oh
it's oh Hi. Thank you.ご視聴ありがとうございました
