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Market Talk- FOMC day! BTC ready?Melt up coming soon!?Spx hits 7000!?
Recorded: Jan. 28, 2026 Duration: 3:06:34Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Music
Music
Music
Music
Music Music finish
reach the top but still you gotta learn how to keep it There's no real double mistakes
It's right on what I want
But like a plan of hell
You crash the gates
You crash the gates
Going for the back of the arm
Nothing gonna stop it
There's nothing that's wrong.
So close now, you nearly have to break so much out.
Oh yeah!
Welcome to the limits. Take your baby one step Thank you. Oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, No one left to stand in your way.
Life can't kill us, but you'll never be safe.
What are you doing? Thank you. Welcome to the Limits.
Stand on the razor edge.
Don't look down, just keep your head in. Oh yo what's going on guys prometheus evan are you guys? Thanks for coming on the show again.
Hope you are all having a fantastic Wednesday or Thursday, wherever you are.
Welcome back to Market Talk, brought to you by BB. My name's Wabi, and boy, today's FOMC, I think it just concluded.
Rates remained unchanged. Powell, honestly, just jawboned. I believe it actually was, if not his last, his, his, I think this is the last, I think this is the last FOMC that Powell's actually
going to speak at, if I'm not mistaken. So he just jawboned as usual. And earlier this
morning, we saw things like Pump and Hype um new year-to-date highs i believe
actually no i think that was just pump um hyperliquid recently bottomed out last weekend
man the price action that's uh hype has had has been tremendous it's been getting all these
listings it got listed on kraken today i believe which is a u.s based exchange and uh i also think
pump is on coinbase and has
been on coinbase for a while had no idea it was honestly there um on chain not much is going on
but uh speaking about chains gold has hit yet another all-time high uh the qqq is also made
an all-time high by like half a point and that's something that we've been discussing here on the
show uh you probably need the qqq which is basically just another form of the nasdaq
uh tech stocks and all that stuff but here based in the us and you probably need like a five to
eight percent gap up on the queues in order to actually see crypto react in a big way at least that's how the trend
has been over the last few years whenever we see the equity markets outperform crypto and crypto is
really not doing much and then equity is correct and crypto just suffers even more after uh end to
see outperformance like we've seen over the last few months and then had that small correction
like we've seen over the last few months, and then had that small correction.
Usually it's after the SPX and Qs blast into price discovery,
have that gap up where crypto usually follows.
And we saw that trend in 2024 where crypto had topped out in March
and the indices just continued to outperform crypto.
And right after the indices corrected, we actually had to wait for the S&P and
the NASDAQ, even the IWM, for crypto to really go into price discovery. So we've seen this trend
happen many times. And even during 2019 going into COVID, crypto had peaked out, indices continued
to rally, and it wasn't until like well into the pandemic craze with stimulus and all that stuff where
you actually had to see the S&P, the Dow, and all the other indices blast into price
discovery by a large margin in order to see crypto actually catch up.
And there's a saying that we have here on Market Talk over the last few years where history never repeats itself, but it often rhymes.
And I'm going to say this again.
I'm just going to not talk about gold topping out.
We talked about gold topping out, I think it was last week.
And gold is up well over 10% over the last, yeah, basically over the last few trading sessions,
gold is up well over 10%. It's up nearly 25% year to date. It's up almost 100% over the last 365
days. And I have, I don't think anyone has ever seen this price action before. Gold has never had this amount of price action, this amount of appreciation against Bitcoin.
Probably ever, honestly.
You're talking about a move of, what is it, like almost 30%?
Actually, no.
Wow. almost 30 percent actually no wow you're talking about a price appreciation against bitcoin
of over 50 since bitcoin topped in early october that is absolutely nuts considering the market cap
of gold and uh we said this yesterday like i i i just do not think there is going to be this insane rotation from gold into BTC.
But just going back to on-chain, I think, like, I completely missed this completely, even though I saw it on the timeline.
There is some AI slop happening, and unironically, man, it's happening on base instead of Solana.
It's that Claude token, but I don't know how long this is going to last, to be honest.
I'd like to see virtuals honestly do something and game as well um because otherwise
there's always that risk where it's like a few tokens rally and then within a day or so they all
just get clapped to kingdom come but uh we did talk about um we did talk about clanker yesterday that's a token that usually does well when uh
ai starts to get moving and i i honestly think outside of meme coins ai is going to be that one
sector in crypto that's probably going to appreciate more than any other sector honestly
it's just a matter of like allowing time to so that we can actually see things that are worth a long bid.
Something more than just a virtuals or a game.
But either way, I got Prometheus up here.
Got Evan up here.
We're also going to have David Levinson coming in in a few minutes, I believe.
A little bit past four we're also going to have
a small cap sniper and uh also uncle joe so it's going to be an interesting show for you guys
and uh for those of you that are just tuning in right now thank you thank you whether you're here
live the audience or listening to the recording welcome back and as always spaces are recorded and before
we go ahead and cook for you guys if y'all can do me a small solid favor by showing some love to the
stream showing some love to the space best way to do that guys is by clicking the spaces tab once
you guys do that you'll see that link right above our profile pictures
that says uh x.com slash i slash spaces followed by a bunch of numbers and letters and all that
stuff so just click the nest guys and hit up the like button hit up the repost button does a number
of things helps bring the show more into the algorithm brings more eyes and ears to the brand and of course doesn't take that much time you guys
always do such a great job with that uh so i think i'm going to go ahead and uh pass it over to
prometheus first so we can get the show rolling guys thank you so much also for tuning in shout
out to all the recent followers that we've gotten and uh yeah prometheus, what's going on? FOMC, practically a nothing burger, man.
But we do have some interesting things going on. EEM blasting into price discovery.
The S&P finally tapping 7,000. And more importantly, the elephant in the room, which is the QQQ,
the elephant in the room, which is the QQQ, hitting an all-time high after essentially
a multi-month range of nothingness. The Qs were in a range from, we'll call it mid-September
all the way up until now. So you're talking about a four-month range for the
Qs and you know we just go over the last so over the last couple of years I mean I think the last
time that we saw anything like this happen this probably during the second half of 2023 if you remember where the
queues had topped out i think in july of 2023 and then had that small correction slash range whatever
it is you want to call it that bear chop and it really wasn't until i believe like going into the
second half of november where we broke out and we finally broke out.
It was a huge breakout, man.
It was a massive breakout.
And the queues just did not stop pumping until July.
So that was quite the rally, really, man.
Insane rally.
But yeah, I guess we can start off with that.
I mean, BTC and other majors aren't really doing anything.
By majors, I mean top 10, right?
The only things that are really moving are essentially what we've been yapping here on the show,
which is just hyperliquid and pump.
Yeah, bro.
Happy Wednesday to you. I might sound a little nasally, by the way,
guys, going through some like congestion garbage. We power through it though. So
just wanted to preface, but snoozer day today in the markets. I mean, you really, it's, I mean,
it's a dull day. It's a Wednesday. It's an FOMC day. Those two compounded together
generally means that, you know, there's no volatility within the markets. Man, it's crazy
seeing what we're seeing in silver and gold just relentless. Like, I mean, there's no pullback.
There's no pullback ever. I mean, maybe you get maybe like a few percent pullback intraday
but if you throw it on the daily chart it's just green candle after green candle after green candle
um and truly something to behold like you know and i genuinely for medals i'd be shocked if we
see another move like this for medals um potentially even in like, you know, for me to even see it again in my lifetime,
genuinely speaking.
It's one of those things that, you know, I think as crypto participants, we kind of
take for granted the amount of volatility that we see within the market.
But to see metals do what they're doing is pretty, pretty impressive.
You can't ignore it. You know, we're seeing huge, huge moves in the dollar, the yen.
We're seeing huge moves in, you know, metals.
And the name of the game right now is what it seems to be is just dollar debasement, right?
Dollar debasement, dollar debasement, dollar debasement.
And people are just, you know, fleeing from the dollar
into places where they think that they can preserve some of their capital.
We unfortunately have not seen that happen for crypto hasn't really, it seemed like play a role,
an important role in that trade as of right now. We'll see if that comes to fruition.
Because you've got to think about it. Over the past 10 years, maybe even a little bit longer
than that, a big part of the narrative for Bitcoin has been what? It's been store value,
digital gold. Escape from the fiat and preserve your wealth. Well, we're kind of getting that right now. We're getting the I should say we're getting the debasement. We're getting the, big way. And the, you know, admin actively addressing
and quite literally saying that they are, you know, actively, you know, devaluing the currency.
And we're seeing crypto respond in a way that fortunately or unfortunately for some, um, is not acting as that kind of,
you know, supportive, uh, or support for the debasement in the fiat. Right. If I look at,
you know, other things like, like we were talking about metals, if I look at oil,
you know, there's a lot of other names across across the the markets that
look fantastic right there's a lot of charts that look really really really good and i think people
are kind of a little bit too tied up in the fact you know or trying to play the whole catch-up game
we talked about on yesterday's show i know you did wabi was or we asked the question and begged
the question and answer the question was,
you know, is crypto going to be seeing some of the flows rotate from these other asset classes into it? And, you know, you answered and I'm in the same camp as you is we're probably not
going to be seeing that. And so you kind of got to ask yourself, and I've been begging this
question for a long time. You have institutional players out of the market now at this point.
Or I shouldn't say out of the market.
Institutional players are largely not participating in this market at this point.
To a large degree.
You know, big difference from what we saw, I mean, 12 months ago versus now.
difference from what we saw, I mean, 12 months ago versus now. And retail doesn't have the money
to support this asset class or really to support price rather. I'm not saying that they don't have
the money to support the asset class because I mean, there's multiple different ways you can
support the asset class, right? Whether that's building, whether that's participating, you know,
on chain, however that may be, right? There's many ways to support it through participation, but to actually support price is another ballgame.
And I'm looking across the board and what we just saw or what I'm kind of seeing here locally, yet again, is crypto, as we're speaking,
kind of selling off here locally.
But there's just not that impressive breadth within the market.
You had mentioned that Hyperliquid had seen a run, Pump had seen a run.
Yes, both of those had seen a run, but we need real breadth within the market, right?
This market inherently, how the dynamics are constructed, they're constructed in a way
that you need massive amounts of liquidity.
Especially as we've gone on these past three years, it's needed more and more and more and
more liquidity to really support itself. Now, we're seeing a lack of that. Like I look at Solana,
I look at XRP, I look at, you know, ETH, kind of BNB, I mean, I mean, even Bitcoin, right?
And let's just take Bitcoin out of the out of the picture for now. Bitcoin this morning,
up a, you know, percent and a half, maybe a little bit more than that. And literally almost nothing was participating. You saw like hyper
liquid move, but I mean, the hyper liquid move was like, okay, you saw what the tornado cash guy
finally stopped selling and some other digital asset treasury stopped selling and they just,
you know, generated a ton of fees from commodity trading and they,
you know, they pumped the market. There's no more sellers left. There's no more sellers left in the
chart. And because of that, you got to, you got to squeeze, right? That's a, that's a squeeze.
But I look at the other names, right? And they can't support themselves, man. Like they just can't. Right. I look at, for instance, um, like Manad Manad is
another, another name where they had a, you know, a decent pump off the lows, right. They had a
decent pump off the lows, but you look at the ecosystem as a whole, like you look underneath
the hood, you look at what's actually going on there and you're like, dude, this is a, there's
a, nobody's participating on, you know, in this network, you know, what is Manad valued at right now? Like
a few billion in market cap, maybe more than that. Um, you look at Sui, another name, uh,
you know, another name when we're talking about valuations, when we're talking about valuation
yesterday, the valuation problem, Sui over 15 bill FDV, right?
And there's just not that support to really buoy price.
And I will say if Bitcoin starts trading and accepting back down below 87.5,
we're going to be going to new lows.
I want to put that out there right now
for everybody in the audience.
I've given my bullish thesis on these spaces several, several times at this point. And there does seem to be a lack of
understanding by participants in crypto from what I'm seeing on my timeline, there's some people I speak with that there really is a lack of, you know,
ability to, and an acceptance in, you know, being able to kind of swallow the pill and be like,
hey, maybe this is, you know, maybe we should be looking elsewhere. And this is, you know,
kind of, kind of fugazi, right? And I'm not
saying and I'm not giving up on the asset class as a whole, because I believe in the long run,
this asset class is going to do fantastic things. I just think from a price perspective, I think that
we have a little bit of work to do. And again, at heart, I am a trader. So I'm speaking from a
trader's perspective. But in the long run, as an investor, I think that there are a lot of
fantastic things that come out of this asset class. If we look at 2000s as a case study,
and you look back at the 2000s as a case study, there was a lot of garbage. There was a whole
lot of garbage. And Tommy and I had mentioned this. Crypto is going through its 08 debt
Tommy and I had kind of mentioned this, like crypto is kind of going through its like 08,
you know, debt implosion, we'll call it, right? There's too much collateral in the housing market
in 08. You reflect that to kind of crypto and in relation to one another. Crypto, obviously,
there's a ridiculous amount of collateralization with, you know, perps, volume driving the majority
of flows within this market, this cycle, and that kind of getting
rinsed out of the system. But from a characteristic standpoint, and what I mean by that is from
a retail viewpoint perspective and just from a societal viewpoint perspective and integration,
I look at more so the 2000 characteristics versus kind of crypto right now, not as like,
not necessarily as structural, but more so from a characteristic standpoint where,
you know, I was, I was quite young, um, around the.com, you know, when.com, everything when.com
was going, going on. But if you look back, it's a fantastic case study, right? And that case study can be condensed really into
a few different baskets. And one of them that I really like to look at is the basket of
over-speculation, right? And what happens when you have over-speculation?
You generally see, right, some form of, you know, re-hypothecation or you see some form of, you know, Apple comes along and you see then real
legitimate, you know, inspired projects start to do some really fantastic things, right? And
integrate themselves within society in a big, big, big way, right? I mean, Microsoft was always there, you know, far before, you know,
the early 2000s, but more than just kind of like a few, few, you know, speculative names, right?
Or I should say a multitude of speculative names. And that's, I think, what we're kind of seeing
right now, where you see projects, projects are trying to answer that question that I posed
yesterday, was how do you fix the valuation question? Once they answer that question that I posed yesterday was how do you
fix the valuation question? Once they fix that question, you then see massive integration,
you see massive adoption, you see valuations below the valuations that are currently
here within the market right now out of the water, and things are going to do numbers.
and things are going to do numbers. And interestingly enough, I posed to the discord
this morning, and I'm not going to get into it too much, but if you look at specifically,
uh, total ES, right, which is the total crypto market cap chart, excluding stable coins. Um,
and you look at that, right. And you look at that structure. And I mentioned this area that you
could look for price to bottom out at. And that would be a higher low from the bear market of
last cycle. And if you are putting in this high timeframe, higher low structure, right?
And then you see next cycle compression up at the highs, and it just becomes this massive wedge, and it's this
massive wedge that's compressing, compressing it up at the highs, that becomes then an accelerant,
right? And with the innovation that we see within the world now, you could expect that it would take
maybe only two to three to four years to see that large scale innovation and reflection of what we saw from 2000 to 2010 because of how technology operates in today's standards, right? And it's not going
to take a decade, in my opinion, for the innovation to happen in a meaningful way.
I think you give it another two years. I think that there's people that are working on projects
right now that could probably, you know, stay in the test of time, but that's for the market to decide. But again, in the long run,
that total yes chart, you see that compression on the higher timeframe. You put in that
beautiful, beautiful higher-low structure, multi, like a decade-long structure, which is what we
just saw in silver, the exact same structure. you're putting in higher lows higher lows higher lows
this ranging environment right and then you saw an asset class do what 300 one of the one of the
largest asset classes in the world do 300 percent since the what since the april, I'm pretty sure, right? And crypto has another 2020 style run in it.
I just personally don't think it's right now.
And I think that we got kind of conditioned a lot of people,
because a lot of people entered the space,
me included last cycle, right?
And we got kind of conditioned into that thinking.
We got conditioned into the thinking
that we all are entitled to,
you know, 10 X's and 20 X's and 30 X's making general generational wealth and retiring when
we're 25 and 30 and, you know, and all that. But if you look at it from a traditional market
standpoint, asset classes across the board generally don't see that. It's actually very, very, very rare.
And so if we're looking at it from that perspective,
who am I to say that Bitcoin can't enter into a decade-long ranging environment?
I understand. I do not want that. I think that would be horrible for volatility from a trader's perspective.
And, you know, it'd be quite boring and yada, yada, yada. But it's also why we diversify.
And people are like freaking out, you know, all these, you know, a lot of the people within this sector are like freaking out.
And the reason why is their sense of entitlement that price has to go up. Price doesn't have to do jack.
Price doesn't have to do jack. Price doesn't have to
do anything that you want it to. And people lay their expectations
without real acceptance, right? And what do I mean by that? Because that's a real kind of
mindfuck for a lot of people,
right? A lot of, a lot of people really can't, really can't grasp that, especially with how
society kind of operates nowadays. And what I mean by that is we can't predict the future,
future, one, and two, maybe, maybe we just have to accept when we're wrong, right? And I will come
out and say that I, I had expectations for the cycle that were wrong. I had to swallow that
pill and I had to move on, right. And yeah, I'm using the word
cycle and yada, yada, yada. And it's like a small sample size and all that. It's the best way to
describe kind of like the, you know, the yearly, the cyclical behavior of price action in crypto.
But my expectations were greater than what they were. But at some point I realized and I accepted, specifically when we broke 100K, that maybe, hey, this market was more reliant on liquidity than what we may had expected.
a trader because I'm not going to be stuck painted into a corner when there's opportunity
elsewhere that lay in the field of a bountiful field of opportunity. When I look at metals,
I look at copper, I look at silver, I look at gold, I look at oil right now, I look at
tons and tons and tons of other charts. There's opportunity to be had. And I don't think
that there's really a reason to be vindictive because you aren't able to adjust accordingly.
Right? So that's kind of what I got today. I went on a whole spiel.
And I'll leave it at that.
Jeez, man.
I do not know how to follow that up.
Evan, feel free to give some of your thoughts, brother.
Yeah, I mean, a lot of good points there.
A lot of good points there.
I was like closing my windows and drinking my coffee, but I heard most of that.
So, yeah, I mean, you know, I think that the first thing I want to comment on is like you mentioned the triple Qs.
And maybe I'm wrong or somebody's wrong on this, but I feel like technically we haven't made a new all-time high yet on the triple Qs. I think I was reason I bring that up was because of which of Joe Carlos. Sorry, I was saying I didn't think we'd make a new all time high until all these quarter four for the triple Q's. And I think technically I'm still right. We came very close and we rejected pretty harshly from the old area. So yeah, I'm looking at my chart. We made a lower high. So technically I'm still right. Obviously I could end up being wrong. We'll see what happens. Um, in post-market that's been like a little bit choppy. I think some of the
earnings came out. Yeah. That post-market that's been choppy, but, um, based on Powell, based on
everything here, you know, I mean the, the, the man I call Powell, the lion numero dos, you know,
Trump's the number one lion pals, the second lion second lion. You know, I like how he handles himself to a certain extent.
Guy's name is Jerome.
You got to respect that.
But, you know, I mean, he did hawkish, but not extremely hawkish.
And I think it's, it was hawkish enough where, like, I think it's probably going to hopefully
mark some type of high for silver, you know, gold potentially here.
I know people are, I think probably even gold made a new all-time high today.
But I think the main thing here is like, you know, if you're ahead on silver, converting
that to gold seems kind of like a no-brainer right now because I think, you know, after
that gold will probably outperform it to a certain extent.
But I do think if the triple Q continues downward here, I do think if Bitcoin continues downward
and you see a lot of things continue downward,
AI looks, you know, still very overheated, especially things like Palantir that I've
mentioned a lot, you know, through the past for the past few months.
Spy still has outperformed Triple Q, I think, for the past few months.
So I think, you know, it's still gearing up for a negative year.
It's still gearing up for, well, maybe not right overall, but still gearing up for, you know, some bearish months ahead of us.
Most likely it's Wednesday now.
The official Chinese New Year as well, like mid-February or something where the year of the fire horse starts.
So maybe February really will be the month where we see some type of breakout here.
You know, Bitcoin's still boring as hell.
You know, we've been, you know, sideways since November 18th.
You know, it's been over two months now.
I mean, it's just extremely boring.
You're in an ascending wedge.
Usually these do break bearish.
I would kind of count out more of the bullish things that you see maybe on the daily.
And I would put more credence towards the bearish things that you see in the sixth day,
for example, that looks extremely bearish.
On the weekly, for example, that looks extremely bearish.
And I think we're going to rhyme with some aspects of last year when they paused cutting
rates.
And I think things will generally come down a bit.
It does look like we're on very thin ice, especially if your triple Q, you know, comes down a bit more.
I know we mentioned gold versus, I had that chart up.
I lost that chart.
But the gold versus Bitcoin chart is interesting because, I mean,
gold has outperformed Bitcoin about 100, almost 150%, you know, since December 24.
Obviously, in the last bear market for Bitcoin, gold outperformed it by 300%.
The one before that, it was 470%.
So, I mean, you could still outperform it by, I mean, I don't know, another 50% to 100% maybe,
assuming, you know, say gold stays kind of sideways, comes down maybe 10%, 20%,
while Bitcoin comes down more.
I mean, you'd probably still outperform it by 50% over the next, you know, six to eight months, maybe, maybe four months, you know, situations of that area, but of that nature, I should say.
But, you know, it looks bearish.
Objectively, Bitcoin looks very bearish right now.
Bitcoin looks very bearish right now. I think Ethereum also looks pretty bearish. Ethereum's
I think Ethereum also looks pretty bearish.
hitting a pretty big area right now, obviously 3,000. It's rejecting from a pretty big area.
I got marked out 3,033, huge area. This could be, you know, with that Fed meeting, you know,
give it a few days, give it a week. That could be kind of that local top here. And then you reject
down quite a bit farther. And that's what it's really looking like, in my opinion.
I mean, everything looks pretty overheated.
We do have in about, I think it's two weeks, right?
It's not this weekend.
So weekend after is going to be the Super Bowl.
It's going to be the crypto AI, or no, excuse me, the AI Super Bowl.
Look what happened after the crypto Super Bowl.
That stuff is normally, you know, sell the news.
So, and that aligns, you're getting close to the year of the fire horse, you know, sell the news. So, and that aligns, you're getting close
to the year of the fire horse, you know, the Chinese new year. Um, I'm saying that half
jokingly. I don't actually think the year of the fire horse means that much. I just find it
interesting, you know, but, um, you know, that's where that rejection may happen. The last thing
I'll say here, I'm an S and P 500 kind of rejecting from 700, you know, that's a big psychological area too. So yeah. And I think
the, you know, the things that look still look the most attractive to me, things like XLE energy,
I think some of that money from silver and gold will go into uranium, will go into energy as a
whole for the next few months. The things that are on a different wavelength for energy uranium's on a different
wavelength i would say then kind of metals and i would also say things like xle are in a different
wavelength so if metals go down like you know silver makes a local top here or whatever you
could see energy still you know show some show some strength so you know i mean if i had a bet
on something you know maybe i'm going to seem to lab strategy and, you know, I'm just, everything's really safe.
And then I got 10% that I'm, you know, higher risk with that 10%, I would probably bet highly
on like energy right now. And then I would try to convert over into potentially Ethereum and,
you know, six to eight months getting a much better evaluation there. And then, you know,
to kind of go off on what Prometheus was saying, you evaluation there. And then, you know, to kind of
go off on what Prometheus was saying, you know, potentially getting those, you know, big gains,
those life-changing gains. I mean, okay, if you can outperform, you know, Bitcoin by, let's say,
50 to 100% with energy over the next six to eight months, then you buy, let's say, Ethereum at 1800
to 2000, then you're at 10K, you know, by the end of the decade well there's your 5x and then it's i think
it's a 10x you know compared to your s p 500 or your bitcoin evaluation so there's some potentials
you got to be patient you got to give it a few years but you know that's that that's that's
what i'm looking at right now you just got to take what the market gives you but in terms of crypto
in terms of nasdaq i would um in terms of sb 500 too i would stay stay more more bearish at the
moment so yeah right did you guys see uh kathy wood talking about 10 10
no what's that yeah didn't she fully blame it on cz yeah cz is having a meltdown today man
almost every single person um that like is like a mini journalist or whatever
is just calling for the downfall uh of cz like they're saying that as long as binance is the
dominant crypto exchange we'll never actually get mass adoption or that true breakout that like the
space has been waiting for since um since luna went to zero effectively and
if you guys take a look at i think it's like stable coin like the total amount of stable coins
in the ecosystem like there is actually money that um has been like leaving the space i think we like the the total stable coin market cap um
has actually like decreased a little bit i i i saw some chart man i'm gonna i'm gonna go ahead
and pull it up but um yeah it's it's quite disheartening what happened on that day. I think it was like 38 billion,
like almost 40 bill, I think,
that got liquidated on 1010.
And most of that was like,
I mean, people like us, right?
It's not, I don't really think,
I don't really think the,
I don't really think there's any other party that got wrecked
on that day more than retail
I mean Bonk Guy got liquidated
that was a
pretty interesting story right
he had like 30 million dollars on a Bonk Long
that just got
absolutely shrecked
yeah if you take a look at the
USDC USDT and BUSD market cap, you'll actually see that it's been declining over the last week and a half.
and we saw what happened in 2022, right?
There was about a $50 billion-plus decline.
And Tether's buying gold.
Am I sure?
Yeah, they bought 24 bill.
So why the fuck are they buying 24 bill of gold
and not 24 bill of Sol and not 24 bills solana or hype or bitcoin
you gotta ask yourself that question right like if if there's any entity in crypto that knows where
money is going it's not cz it's it's uh it's tether it's paulo they've been active in markets
for for like 10 plus years now.
I think they've been around since like the inception of like the Ethereum ICO.
So they've been around for a hot minute.
And that's one thing that I'm asking myself. Like, why are they buying metals at these levels?
Do we really want to call talk on them?
I don't know, man. I don't know. I don't think they're washing any money either. I just think they want to make money and the trend is your
friend until the end, right? Back in November, we had Peter Schiff on the show and you would have thought that like,
ah, dude, that's a top for gold.
And man, you just take a look at the last,
really the last 30 days, gold is up almost 30%.
When we had Peter on the show,
it was from significantly lower prices
for an asset class that trades um at that market cap
um we're all relying on the queues now at this point for uh for crypto like you need the queues
probably at like 670 i would say six seven six seven yeah yeah that that's a meme number, man. That is a meme number.
That's why I'm saying that.
6,800, 680, 690, something like that for the Qs.
And unfortunately, that mass liquidation that happened in October,
I think it actually scared people.
It actually scared people it actually scared people
um you have robin hood having more signups you have fresh capital buying metals and
crypto is kind of like in this in this no man's land we're really like the only opportunities
that we have right now is just going on chain to catch things that really only last for a few days.
These rallies happen very, very fast, and they often don't let you scale in, honestly,
because you're waiting for a pullback, and it just keeps going on and on and on and on and on.
So that's what I have to say about about that i mean even clot i'm looking at the chart right
now like in two days this thing goes from like one mil market cap to 35 um yeah actually yeah
like a button about a day and a half that's that's insane man that's insane, man. That's insane. So capital at least is active. Capital at least is active
on crypto. Bankers also having, um, a pretty nice day today. Prometheus, how long do you think it's
going to take for the market to recover from, uh, the October liquidation day?
They need to make a middle class rich again, bro. If they can that, I've been talking about it, the curve between
wage and cost of living, we'll start to see some pretty nice
flows.
What's the best way to make middle class rich?
I would assume 1% rates, right?
Would that be it?
Yeah, I mean, a big thing, you know, the housing market's a huge one, right?
The housing market is a big, big, big chunk of that pie.
If you're able to, you know, if you're able to, it's either bring, if you either bring rates down or um, or, you know, you bring rents down. I mean,
whatever that may be, if you allow for people to actually enter into the housing market,
that's a, that's another one that way that they can start to build equity. Um, the housing market's
a big one, you know, I doubt that we get another massive stimulus check injection again.
If they do spending, it's probably going to be similar to what we saw with Trump at the beginning of last year with the big, beautiful bill.
I think that was the beginning of last year, right, where the money is really kind of going to the people that own assets, right, and that actually benefit from the inflation.
I think that was the beginning of last year, right?
Because the only way you benefit from inflation is if you are a service provider or you actually own assets, right?
And what I mean by service provider is somebody that owns a company. So, you know,
the whole, you know, government spending thing, it's not really, like at this point, it's not
really beneficial to the majority of, you know, middle class citizens. I mean, genuinely speaking,
if we can find a way to increase wages, that's another one. Like if you're able to reduce or increase the amount of disposable income people have at the end of the month, right? Whether that is like, you know, cheaper mortgages, lower cost of goods, reducing the cost of services, increasing wages, right? That's your way to make the middle class rich.
increasing wages, right?
That's your way to make the middle class rich.
It's not by spending trillions of dollars
because that's just a wealth transfer
and it's going into big guys' pockets.
There's a whole economics talk we could have
that I don't really wanna get into,
but the taxation of the rich is another way to do it.
So that's kind of how and what we would see.
Or another way which you could do it potentially
is if like the value talk we had,
if you bring value in a big, big, big way
and crypto can integrate in a big way
to where the majority of people in society,
like one out of 10 people, one out of nine, one out of eight of people in society, like one out of 10 people,
one out of nine, one out of eight, one out of seven, one out of six people interact with crypto
on a daily basis. It would be like Apple, right? And that attracts money. And when you're attracting
money, you're attracting speculation. So if you can do those things's that's a real way to make things thrive i think as of right now
on chain is pretty fried um you know and bro bro we we had a remember this nft project called moonbirds
yeah yep they launched a token today and um it's a typical like
um it's a typical like typical crappy launch like they launched an egregious valuation i think they
launched that like 200 mil fdv circ was like 55 or something like that and it did like a 2x
um in like a like two or three hours and now there's like people freaking out and all that
stuff it's on a little bit of a pullback but nonetheless you have people coming out of the
woodwork just trying to launch a token after their original project is kind of kind of dead
honestly i haven't heard moon birds in years, man.
Yeah. It's extraction. You know, it's, it's extraction. It really is.
You know, and that, that whole thing too,
that's not conducive for like a healthy market, right? If you look at the SPAC craze a few years back, you know,
when you saw all these SPACs getting IPO, you know, or IPOing,
and you get like this really small concentration of like a wealth effect, or I should say a really,
the duration of the wealth effect is extremely short. And then thereafter, what do we see? We saw like a complete,
you know, we saw IPOs fall off a cliff, right? And so I think we're probably gonna have something
pretty similar in crypto where we saw anybody and everybody who had, you know, 10,000 plus followers,
I shouldn't say anybody and everybody, but you know know majority of people are like 10 000 followers uh you know spin up some shit coin or at least be a kol for some shit coin
and that duration effect is very very short and then thereafter liquidity largely leaves this
leaves the system um and it takes a while to come back and i I think the, you know, rejuvenation, at least for the TradFi markets in regards to
IPOs, is probably going to be SpaceX, right?
It's probably going to be anthropic.
But it just goes through that, like, recycle.
It's the laws of nature, right?
When you go to one extreme, the, you know, nature just rebalances by, you know, and it
just rebalances by, you know, and it swings back to the other one, right? It just, it takes time
swings back to the other one, right?
for that to happen. And how, you know, and how we as humans view time is, you know, it's very finite,
obviously, and it's a very, it's a very short sighted. So just from, you know, it's very short sighted. And because of that, you know, it may take like 12
months, 24 months for, you know, meaningful new launches to come back into crypto. And if that
is coincides with the bottom, I mean, you're probably I think, genuinely speaking, like the
next bear market that I think the one that we're entering into, which I think is going to be
probably like 12 month one, I think is going to provide people a lot of opportunity for the next five to 10 years.
I think it's going to actually, it's going to dwarf what we saw going into 23. Um, I think that
like 23 was, unfortunately it led a lot of people's hopes down um and if you bought anything at the 23 lows like
you did you you you did great at least for like the newer stuff right the stuff you were talking
about wabi like celestia um there was you know roll bit there was what unibot there was you know
the list goes on and on and on um but if you were able to understand that okay we also caspa man caspa was yeah man
one of the cycles largest um gainers and yeah i think like pessimism for all coin people like
dude they're worse than ftx because like you have people saying oh you told us to buy
this ticker that ticker, whatever.
And then it's like, yeah, and the ticker went up like 30x, you know.
And I don't remember that kind of sentiment after FTX imploded.
Like, now everyone wants to point the finger and blame others.
And the reality is, like, you take a look at any ticker on chain that's more than
you know two quarters old everything is destroyed man everything you have solana
hanging on at the edge of a cliff and the only thing that's getting a bid right now
is hyper liquid and pump and you know you're right like i you actually do want to see some more
tokens doing well you actually do you want to see some actual breadth in this market
yeah i think that there's going to be some serious innovation that happens within the
space over the next 12 to 24 months and like i said it's happening um you know it's it's a good
thing i i seem and i probably sound super pessimistic
right now and that's like my trader side coming out my like conviction that we're going down
um but you know high time frame and like i said as like an investor within this space i'm
i'm unbelievably bullish in this space i think the space can still do fantastic fantastic things
um and we're just getting a little bit of a
facelift right now. Like that's, that's all that's kind of going on. You know, we're like that,
like 60 year old woman that chain smoked cigarettes, uh, her whole life, you know,
and has like the barcode lips. And, and, you know, right now we're getting some Botox and
some lip filler and some facelifts and, you know, things are going to be looking here real good here,
you know, in 12 months. So, uh, you just got things are going to be looking real good here, you know,
in 12 months. So you just got to give it time, right? You got to give it time.
Evan, are you a believer in this face outside of trading? I mean, I know you follow guys like
Ben Cowan and all that stuff. And like, Cowan put out a pretty interesting post talking about like uh
what is it he was talking about all coins he said i did not turn my back on the all coin market
law coin market turned back turned its back on me and became nothing more than useless meme coin
slop and basically it's like he describes how the cycle has been right, which is usually KOL is essentially having insider supply.
And it's just like this rotation of why I call them graveyard coins.
They usually rally up to 200 to 400 mil.
And then those same people, they extract out of the chart and do the same thing to other charts over and over and over again.
And the charts don't really have that much longevity to them. These pumps typically happen very quickly. And it's not
like previous cycles where it's like you had multiple chances to get into the chart. And I'm
saying like 95% of the launches, right? I understand you had some coins like Useless and Troll where they actually allowed you to get into the chart.
But most things that ran didn't really last long.
KTA is another exception as well.
I think after Akita first had its first huge run from like March to early May, it was in like a it was, it was in like a six week range where it did nothing while everything was
turbocharging.
And then KTA had like a 20 X pump where it eventually topped out.
So yeah,
Evan,
are you a believer in the space,
man?
Or are you just going to take this as just like,
bro,
I'm just going to trade here and there and just rotate it back into BTC and
some equities.
Um, I mean, to be like, I mean it's a it's a first thing I'll say like I mean I'm not that into like the the super small cap
stuff it just gets like boring to me you know those kind of patterns I mean it's just like
you know there's just so much stuff in the financial realm like it's just such a huge
freaking realm man and there's always like
new stuff happening and i feel like you just kind of got to hone in and like a couple different
things and like get good at them based on your interests so like you know obviously like there's
a the trading i like i do a lot of like i would say for spot trading that's like more aggregate
trading and like i mean i'll be honest like i mean i was my
biggest position was eth for a while like since um kind of since uh when was it i don't know like
later kind of 23 um those areas and you know i kind of stuck with it um actually later 24 i should
say um i kind of stuck with it and you know it obviously didn't do as well as Bitcoin as I would have thought. I mean, my all coin holdings in general did not. I kind of sold for
not bad losses compared to hopefully, you know, compared to a lot of people,
luckily for me back in like later October. But I think that was kind of the right decision too.
So, yeah, I mean, I'm a believer. I think that, you know, obviously, you know, it's tough.
You know, it's more, it's such a venture capitalism.
So I think Bitcoin and ETH is,
I'm probably not explaining this the best way,
but Bitcoin and ETH,
I think that's more of like a value investing kind of thing.
Like I'd consider Bitcoin to be a medium risk investment.
Like it's going to trend up with time.
We have a very high confidence level of that.
Ethereum gets a little bit more
higher risk, but it's probably still going to be relevant in five years and probably will succeed.
Everything else I think would be venture capitalism, which is kind of, you know,
you keep that like you have 10 things or five things at least, and you know some of them will
go to zero. You know, some of them will be higher in five years. Unlikely that they'll all go to
zero, but I guess it's possible, you know, that kind
of situation.
So it's a whole different type of investing.
That's what I kind of look at there.
I think that, you know, the meme stuff kind of irritated me and I kind of agree with what,
you know, Ben Cowan has said.
I mean, I'm 55 years old now, so I'm just kidding.
But I mean, I'm in my late 20s now and, you know, I've been in the space kind of, you know, unseriously since 2015. And I mean, I feel like I've kind of matured over the years. So like the meme, so many coin stuff and how ridiculous it got over the last years kind of just makes me want to like, you know, let's just bash this and, you know, bring it down and move on. to 2030s to get some like liberal in office or whatever i mean they'll probably pass more
regulations to to prevent more of that type of stuff which i think is good and bad you know
there's going to be negatives with it but you know there's a lot of freaking i mean who's that
laura shin i think i don't want to i think that's her name the no coiner i wonder if she's still a
no coiner i think some of you guys know who she is but i remember she wrote the book about all the
you know all the bad faces and all the bad stuff in this space then you had you know the cz stuff which i mean i think anyone i
i think it's pretty obvious what happened on october 10th i think anyway if you have like
just do the most basic freaking thing not even getting any conspiratorial at all like look at
the binance charts and all those all coins then look at the coinbase charts like if your exchange, if everything crashed 10 times more on your damn exchange than everyone
else's, like either you suck as an exchange and you just have the worst management and you're,
you're doing things completely wrong, or you're doing some sleazy stuff, most likely the latter
in CZ's case. And, you know, I think it's just greed and power at that point. Well, you know,
once you get so, you know, wealthy and all that well you know once you get so you know wealthy and all that you know you just want more more and more power and it
becomes power and then you look at like a lot of billionaires like you know bill gates i think
would be a good example it's just more control and power and they just try to keep you know doing
these things and you know it just becomes kind of a a cancer in in your mind i think at that some of
those points but um that's kind of human
nature to a certain extent, I guess. I mean, there's not much we could kind of do about that.
I mean, I think a lot of this has shown us, you know, that at the end of the day, you can,
not your keys, not your coins, you know, at the end of the day for more long-term stuff. I mean,
if you're a trader and you know what you're doing, I mean, if you had even one small short
position during that Renaissance cascade, you would have probably outlived all the losses from
that. I mean, it's all technique at the end of the day there. Um, it's so ironic, you know,
it's so wild too, because like I was talking to a few people, I was talking to like one person,
it doesn't even trade that much. Like on October 9 9th he put in like a 2x long on pay pay
um on october 9th and he risked a lot like he was risking like 20 grand like obviously somebody
with a good amount of money but it's just so like what were the odds like the exact next day he just
gets liquidated you know like any other day he would have been completely fine for a while you
know it's just it's just wild how that that kind of works sometimes you know that kind of area so to kind of summarize you know my ramble here i think
that you know i think eth bitcoin obviously i really believe in and i'm really into that
i think other ones it's more of a venture capitalism perspective some of them will succeed
you kind of have to be diversified in it um peter lynch is a good person to read he's got a lot of
like those venture capitalism kind of techniques, which in summary, you
know, you buy like five or 10 things and you know, the majority of them will go to zero,
but you know, one or two of them will go up 10, 20 X over hopefully the next five years.
So that's kind of the deal there.
Um, I think this bear market will cleanse the space a little bit more.
I think it's going to become more frowned upon and less popular to do these kind of
excessive meme coins. I mean, what if Dave Portnoy did like 10 of them, I think, uh, something like that, little bit more i think it's going to become more frowned upon and less popular to do these kind of
excessive meme coins i mean what if dave portnoy did like 10 of them i think uh something like
that you know i think it's going to get less popular for that craziness kind of hopefully
um i mean so yeah i think we'll cleanse the space you know six to eight months i think there's more
going to be a little bit more apathy in crypto i think people will get back in the seat a little
bit of bitcoin breaks down from here it's i don't know 70 60k those areas but there's going to be a little bit more apathy in crypto. I think people will get back in the seat a little bit if Bitcoin breaks down from here.
It's, I don't know, 70, 60K, those areas.
But there's going to be apathy, especially with gold going crazy and all this.
And I mean, if we do go into a recession, I don't think it's just yet.
I think the last thing I'll say here is that gold is about to hit or is hitting.
It's getting close to the evaluation against the s&p 500 that it had
in 2006 and then it s&p 500 recovered against it for a couple years then it crashed down farther
kind of after 08 so i think we could be in that point where s&p 500 starts to outperform gold for
you know a couple years i think that you know if you're if you're comparing gold s&p 500 i think
s&p 500 is kind of getting to be the safer, better choice here just based on, you know, how crazy gold has gotten right now.
So, yeah, I guess that's my two cents on it.
So, yeah.
Man, what if that pair actually breaks out, Evan?
Gold breaking out against a pair that hasn't seen price discovery in 20 years
oh you mean gold versus fiber yeah yeah yeah it is like these metals have to do with ai i'm
assuming with with chips and all that stuff and um if ai is going to be national security
which it is now it's no longer speculative bit it's actually like national security and trump is talking about it non-stop then like this thing is just going to be
up and to the right like they're just they're just gonna and they're basically printing for
everyone that's bought in gold you could have bought in gold last month last week and
be up double digits of percentage points um and effectively that's a pretty good
return if you compare it to like the dow jones which is uh the boomer index it's the dow right
i think prometheus mentioned that yesterday right that was you right prometheus you mentioned
something like a like uh yeah bro whenever whenever i'm talking to my dad my dad's asking about the markets he goes
how's the dow jones doing like that's that's what he asked but how old is he i'm curious
he's uh mid 60s oh okay that's i doubt is normally people like 80s 90s i thought
my even my grandparents mentioned the smp 500 at this point pretty much
no i mean he he's invested in crypto and stuff but like what he watches is the doubt right um
it's just i mean it's another kind of it's just a different mindset right it's a different whole
another world uh that they came from right you know they came from, right? You know, they came from, you know, very modest living.
You know, you kind of had to prove yourself
at that time in the world.
You know, it's completely different from now, right?
It's very easy to get validation.
You don't really have to work very hard for it.
Yeah, it's interesting.
I think our generation is more kind of like the lost generation.
This is kind of slightly off topic, but because the lost generation, that was the generation
before the, um, before the greatest generation, which was the world war II generation, the
lost generation was a lot of the people that traveled to the U S that immigrated to the
U S because we're kind of getting into that area where
there's less opportunity in the U.S. and you're approaching kind of the, you know, new world power,
that kind of transitional phase. I think it's kind of that like hundred year theory. We're kind of
like that generation a little bit. I think, you know, for the baby boomers, it was advantageous
kind of, you know, stay in the U.S., play the game, pay into the system, and you would have been rewarded tremendously.
But obviously, you know, for our generation, especially when you're seeing, you know, China's economy is already larger in the U.S. in terms of PPP.
If you're seeing like, and I mean, the main reason the S&P 500 goes up is because the U.S. remains the world's largest economy.
remains the world's largest economy.
But I mean, the question I would ask you guys is like,
what do you think like the S and P 500 is the smartest
investment if the U S is no longer the world's largest
economy? Like you look at Japan was number two for a
world world's largest economies, you know, up until
like the nineties or something.
But then in 1990, they kind of fell off a cliff there.
So it's like, if you invested any in anyone that wasn't
the number one world's largest economy,
you know what I mean?
I'd say EEM is like the biggest signal to watch out for, isn't it?
Because EEM is effectively like global monetary policy.
And during its last peak in Q1 of 2021 that was effectively the strongest that that was
like look there's bull markets and bull runs right bull runs is momentum right so that's
january february of 2023 when we saw btc go from 16k to 25 that is october of 2023 to early march of 24 btc goes
from 24 to 73k um that's august of 24 to early december actually no let's call it september
that's mid-september all the way to early december BTC goes from at that point.
I think it went from 2627 to almost 60 right as EEM was topping out.
That basically means that there's a huge momentum run incoming.
run incoming and uh i think perhaps these small caps arc probably start running um nikai probably
goes into price discovery again um i think the nikai right now is just under a thousand points
below its all-time high so once you get all those indices firing iwm back into
price discovery and the queues into price discovery if we don't blast like two to three
percent above that then i understand like the comparisons between a move like this
in perspective the move that we had around this time last year,
where practically all the indexes went into price discovery for a short period of time, and then we topped.
So if we're all going to break out,
I would want to see a huge, huge breakout,
not this little deviation stuff that typically happens
when the market tops.
But again, the Nikkei and all this other stuff,
they usually top out before the S&P 500.
EEM topped out about 11 months, 10 months, last cycle,
if you want to call a cycle, cycle, before the S&P 500.
So it's a mixed market it's definitely a mixed market man but i can see both sides uh of uh of the trade
prometheus and ravin if you guys want to touch upon that before i pass it over to matt yeah i
think um i mean to your point evan like if you were to invest in the the nakay like
back at its peak i mean what you wouldn't have had i mean you've had no real returns the entire time
um even on like the broad based from a broad-based perspective Investing in essentially their quote unquote, number one. Um, if I'm,
I mean, right now, like, I mean, if you just look at kind of like the world, it's not like,
like we'd like to compare the United States to Rome. Like I, I get, I get the comparisons,
right. Uh, it's, it's understandable how you can compare, but how correlated and what I mean by like how much cross collateralization there is or how intertwined all the countries are together at this point.
It's truly like a one world economy, right?
If one economy fails at this point, you know, the whole fucking ship is going down.
And what I mean by that is like if china fails the united states has problems if the united states fails china has problems
um and whether you want to accept that or not um that's kind of the reality of the situation
right it's not like rome where rome fails um and then you see
like i don't even know who took over after rome was it um not the byzantine empire because that
was roman empire um but it's not like you're gonna see this like great you know quote quote
transition truthfully the future it's not individual economies it's not individual countries genuinely speaking um the future is a
you know the quote unquote like you know i hate to use this word like the world order right it will
be um you know extremely it'll be an extremely diverse or i shouldn't say diversified world it
would be there'll be a lack of diversity in
the world because there's going to be so much um you know interracial breeding there's going to be
um you know probably a big push towards there being um you know one language which dominates
dominates them all and that'll most likely
them all and that'll most likely based off of you know the trend that we're seeing is english
based off of you know the trend that we're seeing is
English
you know the humans
have very feeble minds and what I
mean by that is
you know primal idea that
we need to like battle each other
and we need to like go to war with each other
and we need
it's so it's so it's monkey brain i
and so if you really want to look to the future it's i don't think it's going to be this thing
where like oh you want to like get away from the united states uh because the united states is
failing like you're going to be able to enter into these other assets or these other markets to escape it.
No, it's like, it's all cross-collateralized at this point, right?
Everybody's fucking everybody kind of thing.
And if one fails, guess what?
They're all going to get hurt in a big, big, big way, right?
So, like, I more so lean into the
camp like you want to be you know not necessarily thinking along the lines of like oh i need to
diversify because this one country's failing you need to um diversify in the standpoint of hey what
other countries are maybe going to be playing a bigger role in this thing
that we call the world economy, right? Because there's massive, massive, massive growth potential.
And you look at countries in Africa, right? I mean, Africa has a billion people. There is,
you know, from an infrastructure standpoint, there's no grid. There's so much scale. There's so much investment that needs to happen there.
And guess what?
Guess what?
You know, that, you know, rebuild or guess what that industrialization brings, right?
That brings wealth.
So it's not like this thing of like you need to be getting away from somewhere.
It's like, you know, you need to be looking at things that are going to start playing a bigger picture in the broad scheme of things
yeah i mean that's definitely true man a hundred percent because you could even look at history
and view that i mean obviously the uk stock market also went down too during you know kind
of great depression areas when the us one collapsed it didn't go down as much, you know, and you would, if you're seeing the same thing there, like, obviously
if you go into a bad recession in the early 2030s, U S stock market would go down, but
probably these emerging markets would go down even worse.
Um, the thing I'll say though, is I think, I mean, I'd like to kind of, you know, see that.
And I hope that it will eventually happen in terms of like, you know, less conflicts and all that.
But it does seem like we're rhyming with a lot of, you know, a lot of major conflicts, you know, especially people on end due to race, you know, especially with those big influencers.
I'm not even going to get into detail, but there's a lot of conflicts and it is a little bit scary and it is a little bit worse than what we've seen in a
while. It is concerning. Um, that's, and it's not that that's the fear I kind of have about it, but
you know, obviously you want to, you know, remain optimistic, but the thing I'll reiterate here
that I think is like important to realize just like the pattern is obviously, you know, if there is a bad recession,
S and P 500 likely will hold up a lot better than these emerging markets this time around. But,
you know, if the, if China becomes the world's largest economy, 10 years, you know, 15 years
from now, that's going to be the stock market that'll
likely hold up the best and do the best for, you know, as long as they're number one, just like
how are the U S was, you know, for since 1945, essentially, and how the UK's was for, you know,
a hundred years before that. So. Yeah. I mean, to your point point like china is killing the game when it comes to innovation
like they are blowing the united states out of the water like it's not even close um now granted
like you know standard living is a whole nother thing um but yeah and you look at too from like
an iq perspective china has the highest average iq in the world um it's
actually not even close um you know so you know that's another thing too and i think you know if
you look back in history like we rode horses around to get from point a to point b you know
i mean that was the primary means of transportation like 150 years ago, right?
So it's really not that long ago where we quote unquote like this, like, you know, there's
like this lack of technology and innovation.
That was not long ago, guys.
That was like, you know, five generations ago, which is, you know, just to put things into perspective, I think as, you know,
people become, you know, people become, you know, more intellectual, more educated, you know, and
we become more intelligent as a species, my, you know, and it may take longer than I think, but,
you know, the end goal, in my opinion, is kind of like there are no boundaries, right? Or there
are no quote unquote borders. There will be societal divides, most certainly. But this idea
of we need to wage war against ourselves, it's a pretty dumb notion if you think about it.
notion if you think about it man um this is circled the conversation one more time back to
crypto um prometheus have you taken a look at these charts like rain and canton um
they've been rallying like no that's this is insane dude um yeah they they uh went up like three to four x since the december alt lows
and they're trading in the billions um it's like one of those coins like river it's like you don't
really know what they do and they're just slowly chatting man there's always a bull market somewhere
i tell you what there's always something that you miss but nonetheless we got some all caps Matt and David David
has his hand up first David how are you man you saw the cues right you saw the
cues almost making an all-time high today we're almost in business aren't we
I don't think so friends I don't think so not even close oh um here we go i i am so bullish on low beta stocks
you can't begin to believe but i put i'm trying to put up in your nest what i'm seeing a different
world than uh your people so i just put it up in the nest please everyone take a look um it's very alarming to me and i have a good memory and i'm
older than all of you and i remember march 25th 1997 when alan greenspan said we just want to
snug up rates a little because even though we were coming out of these recessions caused by
saddam hussein's invasion of of the's invasion of the Gulf and the recession and the
cuts and the hike, but he wanted to snug it up from 1.97% inflation. March 25th,
1997, 99 days later, Thailand de-pegged from dollar, followed by Indonesia, Korea, and the entire
emerging markets. And based on the property of policy equivalents, if you have stable inflation
and you hike, there's no difference between falling inflation and not cutting. Staying stable, falling inflation is the same tightening of the system,
and I'm seeing it pretty bad.
So I included in the nest Indonesia, which was down 12% today, okay?
And I'm trying to get the picture also of the Indonesian currency.
There it is, which, you know, I'll put them in the same chart for you, and I'll send that up.
We, last week, we had a low all-time in Indonesia rupiah,
and there it is.
There it is.
Okay.
And then what happens today?
Their ETF is down 13% at one point.
People are talking about EM.
I'm sorry to say, it's not serious.
Okay.
The dollar is down.
It ain't staying down in my work.
This gold thing, that's not staying up.
Crypto told you a story.
Bitcoin told you a story.
It's weak.
It's got problems.
It's got 143,000 long-term coins went for sale.
Look at Bitcoin volatility.
We're at a new low. We are below the entire candle of
10.9. That's virtual supply at record level since that time. We have lower price and lower
volatility. That's toxic. You're seeing, so that money, that went, went you know gold's on chain from what i hear would you can
you confirm that uh king wabi that gold and silver can be bought on 50 and 100 times leverage in some
of these places now have you heard that yeah i think you can do that uh on some um okay in crypto
yeah yeah so that's what ran over the volatility shorts, the paper shorts.
It's only temporary before they come back with a vengeance.
I mean, you've got insane volatility.
You've got the greatest deformation of price versus longer-term trends
because the talented traders that made money in crypto
and kept their money are migrating to other things and the problem is when my cousins
in paper gold and paper silver come back with a vengeance and they will because they're making 12
percent every two days if the if silver goes up and back down the next day which has been its pattern
lately so they're they're making big bank they're going to start pressuring gold vol and silver vol,
bitcoin vol, and that means the dollar goes up.
And the only reason Indonesia didn't blow up before last night
is because we have all that COVID money
we sprinkled all over the world,
and a lot of it sat in the central bank of Indonesia,
Thailand, Korea. You know, the Korean
currency is at a 10-year low, almost ready to make an all-time low. India is at an all-time low.
We have 6 billion people with currencies melting down, which means their inflation is rising,
their economies are in stagflation. And we have Powell over-easing, and that's what held the dollar down and all the
looting. But these emerging markets have nowhere to go but collapse Citi. China is on an emerging
market, and China is letting their currency go up, which is an attack on Trump. Chinese currency
weakened in 2018 so they could absorb the cost and keep their exports going. You know that
China's economy contracts every year but for the fact that they have exports.
Their exports exceed their growth. They grow at 900 billion. They're exporting 1.2 trillion, and countries around the world are allowing China
to do that so that China can strengthen their currency against the U.S., not export us deflation,
and keep the unaffordability higher for a little longer. Because once our inflation breaks just a
little, long-term rates will come crashing down, mortgage rates, which are completely
contained, despite Powell and despite, you know, the technicals, mortgages are just,
they're just melting down. We were at 562, 5.62, not six, 562 for the seven-year fixed,
one-year adjustable, and the five-year, one-year is below five and a half.
We will have a 499 with two points in the first quarter of this year.
Housing activity will pick up. Our mortgage activity, we had 157, I think, versus last year. And that's with the 624. We're at 616. So we're on the verge
of a lot of housing activity, a lot of mortgage prepayments, a lot of flattening of our curve,
a lot of strengthening of our currency, no matter what Trump says. And these emerging markets are
going to blow up like they did in 1997, you know, like Tinkers to
Everest to Chance. They all were flooded with dollars from COVID and then Trump's Liberation
Day nonsense. They're running out. That's what your currency at an all-time low means,
and that means you've got higher inflation, less demand for energy, less demand for food,
and if China was doing what they did every other time, we would have already disappeared inflation above 2%.
But they're doing everything.
They're destroying their own economy, strengthening the yuan, just to make sure our data isn't good enough,
hopefully for them, you know, Trump isn't there in the midterms.
for their, you know, Trump isn't there in the midterms.
But these emerging markets,
all they will be very attractive
after the reset.
Not now.
There's gold and silver.
They can't stay up here.
Volatility is way too high.
It's too juicy for dealers.
You just move this stuff from 19 to 35 on gold.
You got silver at like 130.
It's craziness.
It's going to be great.
But if you're losing Bitcoin
and then you start losing gold and silver
and then Microsoft is down five, okay?
510.
Not a little pishikaca meta with all their stories.
Microsofty. They're having crowd problems.
They're about to be a six-month low. They're about to be down on the year.
Everyone's got to watch out for May 11th.
That's the end of this fake show. Remember,
Liberation Day, April 2nd. We went down April 8th. Trump pulled a
taco. We went up. Trump reversed the reversal, you know, the double indie, drove it down. And on April
21, we went out on our podcast, Apple and Spotify, episode six, Max Long. We we said volatility is going to break
in equity
and FAANG is going to be driven higher
started the greatest rally since 1982
and the greatest volcrush ever
Trump spoofing
everyone
he spoofed us with the equities
he spoofed us with treasuries
and now he's spoofing us with the currency
and we understand it.
Emerging markets need a weaker dollar,
and if Indonesia's down 13% this afternoon with a dollar that was weaker,
what the hell's going to happen to the whole emerging markets?
Later it's good.
In years it's good, but not now.
Trump just drove up oil $12.
He's not going to bomb Iran six months before an election.
It's not happening.
He's not going to have a civil war there,
a civil war in Venezuela,
oil sitting up in the city.
He's not doing that.
So if you lose oil, you're going to lose gold,
you're going to lose silver.
Where would gold and silver be if he didn't
drive up
the first Venezuelan boat?
So we got a lot
of temporary things, holding things,
but what's fundamental?
Microsofty. It's got a little ED.
It's got to get some NO, nitrous oxide.
It's toast.
Don't look at Meta.
Meta's got real problems.
ChatGPT is taking ads.
TikTok is legal now.
They got ads.
Meta is, they're talking about new highs.
What are they talking about?
So when you have Trump say, oh yeah,
I'd like a weaker dollar, he's tricking you. You can't get a weaker dollar. The dollar's up from
71 in 2008. It's 12 and a half year trend line is just under its 50 year trend line,
under its 50-year trend line, which is at 99. You take that out, it's over. So in my work,
Bitcoin was the start. It's the most beautiful liquidity sponge that ever lived. And now it's
given back all of that money. It's losing its volatility. MicroStrategy is down 70%.
microstrategy is down 70 percent they're not stopping at down 90.8 like they did in 2000
in my in my book i posted that many times the next time i'm on i'll post the new york times article
april 18 2000 microstrategy down from 14 billion sailors holdings down like one down 90.8 percent
and sailors holdings down like one, down 90.8%.
9.0.8.
So I know there's a lot of good stories, folks,
but you had negative cost of capital with bonds staying down
and mortgages staying well bid.
Folks, that is not going to be able to be sustained.
Indonesia down 13%, and I put up the longer-term chart.
It is very ugly.
So when Softee has got a problem, I don't care what Meta says.
And Apple looks like a disaster.
Let me ask you, if the emerging market contagion goes from Indonesia to Thailand and Korea,
whose currency is at near an all-time low, which is what's helping their
stock market. How much is Apple going to really sell in the emerging markets? Not a hell of a lot.
And it's trading at 30, 40 times earnings. They're buying in all this stock. They're not going to
have any earnings on conversion from a stronger dollar.
All of these guys are making their money from the 12% weaker dollar.
What happens when the dollar continues on the trend?
Because we're getting rid of Powell and he's steepening the curve with the mortgage roll-off.
The dollar's going to go up and it's going to be good by Party City for these guys.
But the mortgage is at its low yield.
We fell today on a Fed Day on the adjustable.
Do you know what a $4.99 adjustable rate mortgage,
five-year fixed, one-year reset, two points,
do you know how that's going to sell?
They should be talking about it all over the news,
but they don't want to say anything good.
But you can't stop it.
It's an inevitable thing
because you cannot hold the S&P
at 240% of GDP
or 140% more when you add crypto
versus we collapsed 90 percent on tech
when we were only 40 percent more in dot-com. You've got Sam Altman and Jensen Wong doing
their vendor investing, sending another two million dollars into CoreWeave. CoreWeave,
I think it's CoreWeave, or one of them.
They're trading at $1,000 off.
That's distress levels.
That's not junk.
That's distress levels.
How about Oracle?
Oracle's trading.
They did a Peshikaka $18 billion bond offering.
It's actually a note because it's not that long.
He's got cut in half.
The guy doesn't sell his stock. He borrows against it.
He cannot continue this.
They're not going to be buying Paramount.
And he's not going to be able to borrow more money to build on his data centers.
So, please, watch your emerging markets, but watch them melt.
You went 99 days after the Greenspan hike on March 25, which incidentally was one day short.
The dot-com peak was March 24th, one day short of three years. You had 99 days from the hike till the failure of Thailand,
then Indonesia, then Korea,
and then it sweeped around South America.
What happens later?
We have 411 days later,
long-term capital management blows up,
and folks, it was much worse than you're reading about.
That was going to take everything down
if they didn't get that thing contained.
Solomon Brothers stopped making markets of the toxic waste that LTCM, who had blown through all of their leverage.
And then anyone who talks about these at Nobel Prize, like Black
Shoals, okay, Shoals,
um scholls myron scholls and uh merson i think they were on ltcm and they blew the hell up and
Myron Shoals, and Merson,
in 1989 i knew they would blow up the the black scholls model is a failure there is no like the
equivalent of a cosmological constant constant there is no liquidity event you get a liquidity
event all options are mispriced so So next thing you know, LTCM,
they have to cut rates three times, except the stock market stopped going down on October 8th,
1998. But they still cut two more times. They started hiking the next year in 1999,
three times at a quarter each. Then they hiked in February and then March 21st,
up to six.
Market peaks three days later,
and Greenspan hikes, I think it's May 16th.
What's the curve invert?
134 basis point funds bonds, mortgages.
Excuse me.
NASDAQ starts a 57% decline.
That's at 39% more than GDP.
We're sitting at 139 more.
And the emerging markets are just the next phase of liquidity absorption,
Bitcoin and that.
So don't be surprised if we lose our first decimal in Bitcoin
and if we go down 75% in emerging markets.
That's for later. There's too much liquidity and it's failing. When silver was 109 ounces
to gold and it's only 17 times as plentiful in the crust of the earth, it shouldn't be trading
as cheap as 109 ounces to buy an ounce of gold. The range
extreme was at 35, and that's when it only fell from 80s. We just came from 109 down to 45.
126 was years ago. The peak of all time was the Hunt Brothers scam short squeeze that got force majeured out on Thursday, March 27th of 1980. But silver peaked
on June, excuse me, January 18th of 1980. And I will leave with this. Do you know what happened
after silver peaked? Because silver is only a liquidity sponge. Gold is a liquidity sponge.
Gold is deflationary because instead of spending money going to a nightclub or a restaurant or
buying a new car, you're giving it to gold but you're just expanding the price. You're not doing
anything. Maybe a little resource is trying to extract a little more gold. These are all liquidity sponges.
Bitcoin, emerging market, gold, silver, platinum, palladium.
And then you push back, and the volatility dealers at Goldman
and JP Morgan and the now Jane Street swing traders,
they back away.
They come back.
But what happened after gold peaked?
Excuse me.
What happened after silver peaked?
Up from $1 and change to $50.35.
It goes down $92 from $50 to like $4.
Gold falls from $8.75 to like $2 75 70 what happened to the yield curve that's what i care
about what happened to bonds versus policy what happened to the yield curve over the next 370 days
the curve fell flattened 370 basis. Do you know what happened after that?
The dollar went to 160, the highest ever,
and they had to do the Plaza Accords on September 22, 1992.
I mean, 1985.
The world got together to weaken the dollar.
The dollar skyrocketed in the dot-com era. The dollar
skyrocketed after Greenspan hiked and the emerging markets rolled over. And everyone's
listening to the nonsense. Oh, Trump says, yeah, weaker dollar. Trump doesn't control
the tidal forces of the evaporation of the global money supply of dollars our deficit is collapsing
folks i didn't vote for trump and you can hate trump or you can hate him a lot okay the deficit
is collapsing we're at 5.8 uh debt to gdp they just upgraded um our atlanta fed to 5.4, which included a government shutdown.
Okay.
We're going to be growing at 4% to 5%
in both of the next quarters.
Folks, that's a lot of tax collection.
It's a lot.
And then you're going to have lower rates.
So the interest expense is going to be lower.
The emerging markets can't stand this. We're running. Reagan had a
5% deficit. Clinton had a 3% surplus. That caused the GFC. We ran out of global collateral.
We're going to run out of dollars of supply. It first shows up in crypto. It then shows,
which didn't exist back. It's going to show up in emerging markets and it's going to be like a fire
and you're not going to have 99 days in my book. Dave, what did it first show up in back then?
Emerging markets, because there's no crypto. Because emerging markets are the most fragile,
the most corruption. They had dollars, and who suffers when emerging markets blow up?
The people that lend them money. American banks, but now it's going to be a lot of European banks.
What do you do when you lose your capital because it gets wiped away?
You've got to make more capital.
How do you make more capital in Europe?
You cut rates to the freaking bone.
The idea that Europe got an upgrade from the IMF,
that psycho witch,
upgraded their GDP.
They downgraded it to Germany today.
It's all a lie.
You're on fire today, man.
No, no, but I want you all to recognize
where is the money going?
America cannot go into recession.
I've been saying that even since brain-dead Biden
came weekend at Bernie's. We have too
much liquidity in the system. And now we have too much capital in the system. We have 105 trillion
dollars of equity between the stock market and housing. You cannot get a recession because you
cannot have people run out of money. And then the mortgages, which was the scam of J.P. Morgan back in the day,
in the dot-com era.
We have independent mortgage brokers.
Only two banks are in the top ten issuance,
Rocket and United.
They're one in two.
Rocket's being sued because they're giving mortgages too accommodatively.
How about suing J.P. Morgan for not issuing them,
making you put in 40% down payments to redo your mortgage?
Only the rich won.
Scumbags.
J.P. Morgan's a piece of garbage.
He screwed middle America.
That's not going to happen now.
So we can't go into recession, which means we're going to collect too many taxes, which we're going to destroy the supply of dollars. And Europe with all their fake garbage, they're going to be begging. Not Powell. Not little puppy dog Powell on, what's her name, Yellen's leash. She says,
she says transitory.
And he says, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, that's it.
Transitory, transitory.
Negative 9% real rates.
And you wonder why we have a little inflation.
We got to get Tina in here, man,
to really spark up the room. So all I want you to know is I've never been more bullish in my life.
And I was there. I was there in 1977, 76. I was waiting in gas lines in 1972. Alternate days you can get gas.
Okay.
I remember all of that.
I lived it.
We have so much money.
Please get your freaking ostrich head
out of the freaking sand
and buy something that's going up
instead of something that hasn't moved for four freaking
years do you know how many hodlers and coiners are going to screw themselves they're missing
out on the greatest opportunity ever to buy what what's uh if you had to pick something for the
next 12 months if you just just go look at the 52-week high list and sprinkle it over there.
That's it.
Buy what's working.
Better yet, buy what's on the all-time high list.
Better yet.
How do I find that list?
Just Google 52-week high list.
You do.
Stock screener and trade view.
You don't need it.
You could just Google.
You'll get the Wall Street Journal.
Every week, you're busy, folks.
You don't have time.
Every week, take five freaking minutes.
And when I said May 11th, your life is going to change.
You're going to learn on May 11th that we're going to have an ocean of tech stocks
and miners on the 52-week low list.
And you're going to have staples, healthcare, utilities,
interest rate sensitives.
They're going to be populating like never before
the new high list.
Folks, we have more liquidity than we've ever...
We've created a monster, an M2 monster, and it's going to turn on its masters.
It's going to turn on the banks.
Look at JP Morgan, three-month low.
I thought they were doing great.
On May 11th, the Trump spoof, the April 2 is going to be six weeks old.
be six weeks old and that trough and when we did on our podcast fang vega suppression a prompt
meaning now prompt volatility suppression will drive up fang april 21 why did we say that because
trump came in that morning when the market's down three and he said trump that powell's a loser or
some other thing and at three o'clock karen levitt came on and he said Trump, that Powell's a loser or some other thing. And at three o'clock, Karen Leavitt came on, and she said,
when Trump called Powell a loser, he wasn't intensifying his attacks.
I was all in.
We did that podcast.
And that night, Trump said, I'm not firing Powell.
It was off to the races.
Listen to what he says sometimes but have some context on may 11th as we sweep out all of that
divot down and the rebound these things are going to be on the 52 week law adobe right all of these
service now um snow into it the igv what's igv gonna? IGV is the lowest relative to the SMH,
the lowest relative to the QQQ,
the lowest relative to the S&P in all time.
Who's not funding in that?
Who's not shorting that to buy healthcare?
Who's not shorting that to buy staples?
Look at freaking McDonald's.
Look at Walmart.
Come on, folks.
You got a five below.
Not advice, but it's not even the S&P 500.
Five below seems to be only 5% below its monthly closing high.
And it's up 200% from the low.
I like the biggest and the second biggest and the fastest.
Okay. But just look once a week for five minutes and migrate some capital to what is working for what sucks or what's stalled or
what's going down. You will make so much money if you learn how to flow with the algos, swim with
the dolphins. You're always allowed to
reverse back, like Dr. Strange, turn it counterclockwise, like a Betamax. But if you do it
and your trade worked, don't you want to do more? And if it starts working faster,
don't you want to do more? Don't you want to flow with capital? But please get your eyeballs
out of the rearview mirror mirror because the greatest time in your
life, because it's only going to last a year or two. And then I'm all in. Amazon was down 95%
from 1999 on. Look what it did. I'm going to be max long, you know, testicles to the walls, right? I'm going to be all in the high beta that becomes
low beta or high beta to the rebata. We're going to reset these multiples.
The dot-com era was funded by negative cost of capital. You could short treasuries and make a
boatload. And then when we started to slow down,
Greenspan let the long end of the curve do its job and flatten, take the lending function away
from the banks. And that was it. You slow the lending function, no more money for this tech,
the whole ecosystem failed. Then you had some software making fibers faster. The whole thing's gone.
Nortel, ninth biggest company in the world. 50% of the Toronto Stock Exchange through a direct
listing and an indirect listing through Bell Canada Enterprises evaporated bankruptcy.
Lucid, that's 2009. Lucid, goodbye. bought by Alcatel, Alcatel, took Cisco till
recently, and it's still a fraction of the market cap. Folks, just use your eyes, please. Don't
listen to a word I've said. Please, I beg you. Just look at your eyes and look where the money's
going. And that's why I like public markets and not private credit,
where I know guys who have to wear a jockstrap to work because the investors are telling,
give me a better mark on my private credit. Do you wonder why we don't have any IPOs with
the market at a high? Do you want to wonder why they're not doing IPOs and getting liquidity?
Because no one would pay the garbage marks
that these freaks of nature are overtelling the subscription people that were told,
oh, private equity were gold.
They can't afford to mark it down by 75% to put it out.
They're afraid to tell the truth.
We have no new stock.
We're going to have mergers like crazy under Trump.
Get the cost cut. Get innovation. Make it more profitable. Get those rates down. Get me two million homes. Do you know
how Trump just spoofed you on his freaking housing story? Listen to this. He said, Blackstone,
you can't buy housing. You can't crowd out Main Street and neither can those other ones rent to own or whatever
they're called what does he say in Davos he doesn't say you can't buy homes he says you can't
buy used homes you could buy all the new homes you want so all the money you want to deploy into housing, which has the least amount of debt since the 1950s.
Okay, 75-year lows of debt.
We finished GFC with 8 trillion of debt.
I mean, 8 trillion of equity.
We lost 6 trillion of equity.
We had more debt than equity.
We have 28%.
You know what Wall Street
does. You've got no debt. Let me lather it up. Trump said Blackstone, buy all the homes you want,
just build them. And you've got geniuses shorting it because Powell didn't cut. Are you freaking
mental? And then you have the worst snowstorm in a very long time. And people are shorting Home Depot.
How the hell are you going to fix up your house in Missouri?
So don't listen to any names I've said.
Don't listen to me.
Listen to your eyes.
Go where the money's going.
When Bitcoin was excited into existence in 2008 with its first trade,
do you know what the value of Bitcoin was?
The entire 21 million, do you know what it was? It was $20,000 for all 21 million coins. That's why the 5,050 coins traded for $5.02 across PayPal, because they wanted a $20,000 capitalization.
So you had to go lower.
You had to go less than one-tenth of one cent
so you could take it up to $1 in February of 2009,
and it went to $8 three months later, 80,000%.
We only had 800% in the quarter third quarter of last year
that's 100th the motion what kind of volatility compression is there and then you have an
acceleration from a 200 basis points per month increase to a 375 basis points. It went from 8 to 30. So it had $630 million of market value.
You take it, do the math with me in reverse. You have a 4.28 trillion crypto valuation,
4.28 trillion on October 9th of last year. If you lose 3.87 trillion,
that's a decimal.
You lose 30...
So 3.87 trillion.
Excuse me, 3.83.
Then you lose 383 billion.
Then you lose 38 billion.
I don't know where we're going to stop,
but it's a lot of money.
It's a lot of money to hold up that last 3.8 trillion.
And so you have it lower, you have its volatility lower.
You're smothering it.
We're going to do the same thing to emerging markets.
And the more people get squeezed out,
and then we'll do it to gold and oil and silver,
we lose that leverage.
We lose a lot of equity.
We get that two years ago, the July 10th, 2024 to August 5th.
The Nikkei falls in three days, 22.5%.
We're losing all the liquidity, folks.
Liquidity, folks.
People are short stuff to buy other stuff.
People are short stuff to buy other stuff.
People short silver at 109 ounces
when it's one, you know,
one-sixth of that
in terms of it should be
that you should have to pay
one-sixth of that, not 109.
So now we're done.
We've widened that.
We've lost liquidity
that people would short silver to buy gold.
It's so exciting to me to be able to give people facts, to come on this space,
and the host is allowing you to hear two sides.
You don't have to listen to me.
You have to listen to your eyes and see if there's any merit to it.
Other places won't do that.
They're not allowing their hodlers and their satoshi stackers
to hear both sides, to hear what happened in history, to hear when the Fed either hikes or
policy equivalences, not cutting when inflation's falling. What does a 3.57%
two-year yield mean in an Atlanta Fed 5.4 and nominal inflation at almost three nominal you're talking
about over eight percent you're talking about over eight percent nominal gdp and you've got a 3.57
two-year there is something wrong with their accounting i don't trust the government data
i never did i rely on it as a source of other people's behavior
I've always relied on time and sales
of the data
of the price of the 2 year
the 3 year, the 5 year, the 7 year, the 10 year
and the bond
I trust market prices
I don't trust clowns
and when you have Druckenmiller and Rubini
and Taleb and Fink and Jamie Dimon,
all of them telling you, oh, short the bond.
Why do they do that?
Because there are no bonds.
We only issue $3 billion of bonds that go to the primary dealer.
The rest go to long-term holders, lockbox, pensions, insurance.
Do they have the guts to short the two-year? No, no, no, no. They don they have the guts to short the two-year?
No. No, no, no.
They don't have the guts to short the two-year.
Why? There's four trillion of them.
They can't move it.
But they can move 30 billion of bonds
if they all get together and they wet their brow.
But you go watch what people do.
Weak data put on a steepener.
What is the opposite of that?
Strong data flattener.
What happens if you flatten? Goodbye mortgage rates. They melt. You want a 499 adjust rate mortgage five-year, one-year, and be short freaking Rocket or United or the ITB or the XHB
or Home Depot? Are you kidding me? Just look at the new high list,
whatever's working.
Look at it once a week,
once a day,
once a month.
The less frequent,
the more I would move.
The more frequent,
the less I would move.
And make sure your capital,
which is precious,
because you can donate some of it,
you can have more time to help people.
Don't blow it with some garbage pile whale exit hodler.
Move your money to what's working.
Make your money.
So when Bitcoin or tech has another five decimal move,
you're making all the money.
But folks, the only moves it's making in decimals is down.
MicroStrategy is telling you a story.
They're doing all of these preferreds.
Who doesn't short MicroStrategy to hedge off the preferred?
People who don't understand that that's what's generally done.
They got too much stock.
You don't buy a house with 80% down and a 20% mortgage.
You buy a house with 20 down and an 80 mortgage, unless you're a veteran, you're not going to put
anything down. How can you just keep on issuing more equity at micro strategy and think, or
strategy, and think it's not going to go mini strategy. Hey, you like that one, right? I just invented it.
Not micro strategy, mini strategy.
You've got to watch the prices.
You've got to watch reality.
When you see Bitcoin accelerating versus the NASDAQ in whatever direction, that's where I'm going.
When you see strategy accelerating versus Bitcoin, that's where I'm going. When you see strategy accelerating versus Bitcoin,
that's where I'm going.
I'm not going in the direction of the psycho Satoshi stacking,
hodling freaks that don't mind stealing your money.
I don't care about them.
I only care about telling people they can make money and give it to charity.
Give 10%, not my charity, yours. Lend money to
a relative. Don't throw your money away being whale eggs. David, do I need to step in here,
brother? Okay, you can. Why, for my heart attack? I feel like I need to step in for your health.
I was just at the gym with a personal trainer. Good for you. I love the blood pressure.
I actually am fortunate.
You know, the nine marathons,
I have low blood pressure.
I don't have salt,
but I have low blood pressure.
No stroke here, folks.
But really, seriously, I mean,
I'm doing a little over the top,
but can you just freaking watch
five minutes of your life every week?
David, we're going to open up our eyes
nice and wide.
Thank you, thank you, thank you.
It's going to be so much easier
when we have...
Maximum light.
When we have Bitcoin at a 52-week low,
at a discount to coin,
I mean, a coin at 52,
strategy at a discount to coin,
him being forced to dump his 715,000 coins. Those are big scrapes. If anyone ever worked at a large hedge fund,
and somehow or other someone overheard you telling someone about the principal's biggest position,
you're blackballed from every firm forever. They preserve the anonymity of the size of their big positions and this psycho
strategy guy, he's advertising
it and he's only got one
it's insane
so when you start seeing more of these
texts, you know, look at the IGV
I think everyone should do this
you should make a
whether on TradeView or Yahoo
make a portfolio
call it IGV, put it in IGV and put it in the top 10 names whether on TradeView or Yahoo, make a portfolio,
call it IGV,
put an IGV,
and put in the top 10 names and watch what they're doing.
I mean, I don't see any possibility
that IGV doesn't start dragging SMH down.
I don't care what the clowns are saying
with the order book.
Microsoft is not far
from pulling their order book
for NVIDIA. They're the order book. Microsoft is not far from pulling their order book for NVIDIA.
NVIDIA, they're the largest consumer.
How about SMCI number two?
Right?
It's a big problem.
Amazon just fired the other.
Remember, they were going to put in 30 or 35,000 employees in New York.
They just fired 30, 14, and then another 16 that leaked out yesterday.
So I just want you to watch.
And some of you are like leverage junkies, and I'm not giving anybody advice,
but LabU is a triple leverage, up or down.
Pill, I think, is another.
I mean, just if you need leverage because that's where you are
and you want to keep 70% of your money in treasuries short and then have your risk
concentrated, you want to do it that way. But these options on these, the options are very illiquid.
Just watch what's working. Watch what's not working. Watch what's going down.
Take information and signal.
But 13% in a day is not nothing, folks.
It is not nothing.
And you didn't have Kramer lead with it.
And you didn't have Powell lead with it.
And you didn't have any of the CNBC lunaries talk about it.
I, unfortunately, have a predilection for knowing what's going on.
And I watch almost everything of size. And when I see the thread between the shoulder and the
sleeve on a suit come loose and someone's pulling it, I'm just waiting for it to drop.
If you see Indonesia being followed by other people, Korea is controlled right now by, you know,
Hynex and Samsung.
But you start watching these emerging markets.
We lost the Egyptian currency.
We lost the Pakistani currency.
Devalued.
We lost Sri Lanka.
Why do you think all these people are listening to Trump?
Because we run the IMF. These countries are on IMF drip. They would not survive right now.
They'll balance to the budget. Pakistan, the biggest, I mean, the most powerful Muslim nation,
nuclear bombs, and they're on the Gaza board piece. Somehow or other, that last hostage
was released.
Israel is giving money
to a lot of the tribes
that say they want to get along
with UAE and everyone
and join the Abraham Accords.
They got hotels all along the Gaza
going to be built.
Data centers, hospitals, schools.
The only thing is
you've got to be vetted that
take a fingerprint, a biometric,
and you swear off weapons and Hamas. And Trump said if Hamas wants to give up their weapons
and renounce Hamas, they could be part of the government. All I care about is peace.
What's going to happen when Ukraine and Russia work out? What's going to happen to oil, gold and silver?
Emerging markets.
What happens to emerging markets that export commodities,
get the dollars when the commodities go down?
What's going to happen to their currencies?
They'll accelerate lower and they won't need any energy
because they won't have any money or any demand.
Folks, this is just 1997 to 2008 squeezed up in a much shorter time frame.
And thanks to the wonderful thing called Bitcoin, we have that information. And thanks to the
wonderful equity called micro strategy or strategy or mini strategy or microscopic strategy,
or microscopic strategy.
We have organization.
And when we have strategy outperforming coin
and coin outperforming the NASDAQ,
believe me, I'm taking that as signal.
I am taking that as signal like gospel from John.
But I'm not listening to any clown
who ignores what's on the new high list
where money's actually going
of the $100 trillion we basically created since GFC?
You know, the balance sheet of the Fed went from $890 billion to $8.97 trillion, a decimal in 14 years.
That's not normal.
We didn't go from $89 billion to $890 billion. That's not what
happened. This was all new. And what it did is it drove up asset price. It drove up asset prices so
much that you can't make it work by borrowing unless the rate is lower. So there isn't the
demand to borrow at this level because housing is unaffordable.
That means it's a paucity of demand for money.
And it's a surplus of a supply of lending.
A year and a half, two years ago,
I had a hashtag, G73.
The G7 nations are going to experience
a destruction of duration demand.
AI was going to not make any more sense.
It'll get too big at some point.
You won't be able to justify in the corporate bond market the expansion
because that's where they went.
The cash flow isn't there.
And when the dollar goes up, it'll be even worse.
They'll need to do the debt.
And now nobody can do the debt because no one's willing to underwrite it.
You know, NVIDIA thinks they can hold it together.
Sam Altman can tell you his fables.
But now we're seeing there isn't the demand for housing.
Yes, we have a refi 157 down from 183 or whatever.
And we got new at 18 this month versus last year,
18% last week versus last year.
We're going to need lower rates. But what that also means is we don't have the supply.
I mean, excuse me, we don't have the demand to borrow at this level. Will we have lower rates?
You better freaking believe it because we have 35 trillion of equity and we only have um 28 of all of the 50 trillion that's 14 trillion of debt uh 13 trillion of debt excuse me 13 14 trillion so it is the greatest time there ever was folks
you could trade at essentially no cost you get leverage when it's working but just you know
just box with the market move it if it seems to you like, oh, no, no, no, it's reliably not working,
go backwards.
Be buy.
Be best.
Be buy.
Be ambidextrous, ambitradist.
Go both directions.
But watch as we get through May 11th, which is 102 days.
That's when you're going to see so much
on the new low list.
So much of the riot and all these miners.
They'll be clean spark.
They'll all be living on the new low list.
Because the coin.
And what's going to happen to all their equipment?
They'll either go data center
or it'll go into the market.
You won't have a shortage.
Shortages make gluts.
Gluts make shortages. Just please. You won't have a shortage. Gluts, shortages make gluts. Gluts make shortages. Just please,
you've made money. You're on a great space. You should all retreat it right now and every single
time you get on the space and right in the middle of the space and on the end. Don't make other
people be bag holders. Let other people learn how not to lose money.
Wabi's terrific.
He said you're allowed to go into equities long or short
if they're either going up or going down.
You're not married.
You're married to making money.
My frame in quantum finance is not a Q-bit.
It's a Q-buy, not a Q-bite, a Q-buy.
You could buy a penny or you could sell a penny of anything you can make money
on that penny the more pennies the more money you may make or more lose and the good traders make
the more but you've got to look for what is moving in the direction of your transaction
go down to the smallest quanta the penny and do what's working you'll make so much money you'll be at full strength you're not
going to ride an 80 percent drawdown which isn't going to end at 80 it's going to go down 80 then
it's going to double excuse me it's going to go down 80 then it's going to go up 10 times
so you can double that is so ass backwards It worked when Bitcoin was 20,000.
200,000.
2 million. 20 million.
200 million.
2 billion.
20 billion.
Not so much at 200 billion and not so much
at 2 trillion.
That's why it stalled since
69,000. Remember,
code reuse. It's the matrix.alled since 69,000. Remember, code reuse.
It's the matrix.
11 plus 10 equals 21.
11 is November.
10 is the 10th day of the month.
2021, that was 69K.
What happens when we're back at sailor's cost of 75 or 76,
whatever it is?
That's 69 plus inflation.
How about
look at Bitcoin
in Euro, right?
So for 88,
that's 79.
You know?
79 plus
69, that's 10
over almost five years 21 inflation so nobody in europe made money in crypto
so please your money is precious and you should be able to beat the stock market every year for
your life because you're watching everyone knows if you if you stay out of the market
and you miss the 10 best days,
you get like a money market return,
but they don't tell you.
If you get out of the market on the 10 worst days,
which are generally clustered,
markets go down three times as fast,
then you beat the market.
If you've got billionaires that beat the market,
that means everyone else isn't doing it.
Be the billionaire. Move with the money. if you've got billionaires that beat the market, that means everyone else isn't doing it.
Be the billionaire.
Move with the money.
Why would you write something down 80%, why would you write down,
nobody sold all of their Amazon at the high
and bought it all back at the low, down 95%.
Nobody did it except liars and lunatics, okay?
But if you flow on the way down,
what if you get double the number of shares?
8,760 hours in a year.
Do you have to have your money exposed that whole time?
When you're on 100 times leverage, you're not doing that.
You're in for minutes sometimes.
You're in for a half an hour sometimes.
You've got to make sure you put it in,
you have a tight stop, and you close it out.
How do you hodl?
It's such insanity.
How much is Bitcoin underperforming
every other asset in the world,
other than strategy?
So what did Staples do in the last month?
They're nearly at their highest weekly close ever.
Even that garbage Starbucks is getting some story.
No names.
Go the high.
Follow the flow.
And not anything under a billion.
Don't play that game.
I don't think anything under 10 billion but don't go under a billion
don't buy the garbage
I'd rather buy leverage on quality
than people would say
why don't you just buy
Lone Depot instead of
Leaps on Rocket
well how about just buying Rocket 1x leverage
instead of dealing with something
that's unreliable
how about dealing with the highest quality?
Crypto was the, Bitcoin was the highest quality.
And now it's leaving ETH and XRP, which fell 57% in one hour.
One hour.
It's not a real price.
Nothing moves 57% in one hour.
1% for every minute.
That's not a real price in my book.
Quality, size, liquidity.
I'd rather put leverage on quality
than buy a piece of garbage with no reliability.
Hey, David?
Yeah.
Hey, I jumped in.
I'm curious what the topic is
because this has been all over the place.
I don't have a topic.
Sorry. No, no. It started off with the emerging markets because there was a lot of positivity
and I really like the emerging
markets but they have to melt down first
because they've run out of money.
Look at the currencies. The Indian rupee
all-time
low. A low currency
means high inflation. It means
bad consumer sentiment. It means you
can't build a tall building. It means you don't need the diesel fuel to make the cement
to make the tall building. It means no call on the demand for commodities. So I'm just talking
about liquidity collapse. We're going to lose dollar supply in the world they're going to have to pay for it
they're going to have to call
there's not enough
because we're running out of our deficit
it's like GFC
all the same things
they're all happening now
just in a faster time frame
I happen to think Y2K and GFC
were one event
they weakened the dollar
by 50 and that delayed the inevit2K and GFC were one event. They weakened the dollar by 50,
and that delayed the inevitability of the GFC
by weakening the dollar and having the fake earnings
from the conversion of the cash flow.
But I just want people to use their capital
to be deployed gradually into what's working
with stops and throttling
and make sure you get confirmation.
But the higher the quality name,
the stronger the name,
more institutional exposure,
more derivative exposure,
more realness of price,
more confidence of exit,
so real money goes no problem entering.
Not the tools, you know.
Hey, Matt, what are your thoughts on the markets right now?
Oh, give me five minutes.
I'm getting out of an Uber.
No problem.
Oh, how are you doing, man?
Oh, here, how are you doing, man?
Like the airport?
No, yeah, oh, here. How are you doing, man? Like the airport? No. Yeah. Oh, hair. He, uh, he came in here in his, uh,
his alt account a while back. Oh, Hey, what's up, bro?
I think Oh, hair is, he might be sleeping.
It's been a minute. I'm sorry for everyone, but I just sometimes
I get going.
It's okay. It was entertaining, man.
When you started screaming.
That's what I'm going for. I want to wake you up
from the slumber I put you in with the numbers.
It's like an
NFL coach or something like that.
I will say the number one thing that David
said that I agree with.
That was a lot. It was hard for me to keep track of what's going on. There was one thing that David said that I agree with. That was a lot. It was hard for me
to keep track of what's going on. But there was one thing that I definitely picked up on,
and we share this ethos, David, and I deeply appreciate you making it conscious for people.
The more money you have, the more influence you can have, and you can recycle that capital,
whether it's into nonprofits, startups like I invest in and try to support
good people that are building products that can also support other good people that they hire.
I mean, there's a real flywheel. It's exponential. It's exponential.
Yeah, I 100% agree. And so I appreciate you bringing that up. I think that's important
it's important for people to think about it.
for people to think about it. Don't just think about the money that you're creating.
Don't just think about the money that you're creating.
Sandy Wiles given $2 billion.
Michael Dell just gave $6,250,000,000
to give people the concept of starting to invest
and think of money as a future and not as a candy bar.
Agreed.
So anyway, that was the observation I was going to make.
I was just going to say, speaking of companies I invested,
I'm not sure, did anybody catch there was a Moonbirds token launch today?
Yeah, that was garbage.
Is it garbage?
Yeah, I mean, like...
I'd love to hear more about that, please.
more about that please yeah so it's just an nft project that came out like five years ago um and
Yeah, so it's just an NFT project that came out like five years ago.
then they kind of faded into irrelevancy as most nfts did i think there are only a handful of nft
projects that actually did well after the 21 top um and that one just kind of faded into irrelevancy
and now they just come out of the woodwork and release a token to mass extract and
increase their runway and uh yeah i believe they launched on solana but i don't know what their
tokenomics are but it's just it's it's a it's a very weird market right now um in crypto land when it comes to launches it has been I'd say over the last
probably year and a half most new launches have not been well um yeah since like October November
most new launches have been very bad with the exception of hyper liquid and pump um yeah i would say like the new launches
new launches usually do well um coming out of bear markets i would say um 2023 was a great example but
i would not really get into Moonbirds, honestly.
They came out, did like a quick 2x, like 120% move,
and that's really it, right?
Yeah, I don't really have much thoughts. Wasn't there a celebrity behind Moonbirds, bro?
Am I mistaken or something?
Wasn't there like a big name behind that who came out with that?
Wasn't it Kevin Hart or something?
Or was that a different collection?
I don't think so.
I think it was CryptoPunks.
CryptoPunks and Bored Apes were like the big ones.
You mean back in like before?
Yeah, those were like...
Oh, yeah.
I think there were several big-name people but they
say so full disclosure I'm an investor in the company that bought moon birds and I know the
guy like I'm not like I don't have an opinion it's so funny there's no hey man so first of all I
believe in portfolio I have have over 100 investments.
So this is but one, and this is only but one part of what they're doing.
So I don't know much about, as you guys know, the crypto.
I know a little bit more about Bitcoin.
But it did launch today.
What I saw, though, because you can see it on Coinbase,
it looks like it's a lot higher than that i don't know how i'm actually kind of shocked that it has a market cap now of 394 million that sounds high
but yes that's the ftb yeah the uh it's like it's low float high fdv so okay so so that's not an accurate representation? Yes, it's not.
But yeah, I think Moonbirds came out
during that NFT season that happened
in the spring of 2022.
Oh yeah, I know all the history there.
I was just curious if anybody had any insights
on this actual look.
The guy who started the company that bought them,
Spencer,
he worked for me.
We worked together back in COVID.
And he was a very young guy.
He was an undergrad
at University of Chicago
when that started.
And we were doing investing
in real estate startups,
mostly in Chicago.
And then he went off on his own.
I helped him launch a NFT fund,
which has done pretty well
considering NFTs have not done well.
And then part of that was this spin out
of Orange Cap Games,
which ended up acquiring Moonbears.
So he's doing pretty well with it.
This was a dead project.
So I don't know how good it is.
I literally have no insight into any of this it's
just interesting to see anything that could possibly have a market cap on that on the first
day it sounds you know as you said it's not totally um liquid i guess there's not enough
uh sellers and buyers and stuff but um regardless it's shocking to see in one day yeah i'm not even sure if they even had a had a raise or if they just
did a random launch what do you mean you mean on the token like an ico or something is that what
you mean um no i think anyone can launch a token like immediately i'm not sure if they if they did
that or if they um did like an initial raise um like a private raise right which what are you
saying you're saying through selling the token no no like like these crypto you mean like venture
yeah yeah like oh yeah i'm an investor yes they've raised the venture capital yes but not as not as
moonbirds it's orange cap games owns moonbirds they acquired moon birds so it's that it's not moon birds is under orange cap games which is done all their stuff
anyway it doesn't really matter I was just you know this is a crypto show and
I don't know much about it so I was just curious if anybody had any insights
I appreciate it yeah no problem man Matt why are you doing man
matt you there
i think you're running a ghost ship here wabs
it's funny calling on matt and then i just see his profile photo man and it's just silence man
you've had the same pfp like five years, haven't you?
Yeah.
Like four or five years at this point.
Forever.
I had this before, LaserEyes. I had it after. I don't change it for anything.
There wasn't any LaserEyes this cycle, was there?
No. Actually, I was joking. I was wondering what was the top signal 2025
okay?
It's
LiDAR.
You can't see
it now.
I've got LiDAR
on mine.
Oh, gotcha.
It's invisible
in the eye.
Nice.
Is Matt speaking? Is he speaking? Oh, is it? There it goes yeah um anyway um yeah really interesting times i was starting to get
um lots and lots of earnings more everything looks pretty decent um you know microsoft was
a miss but meta was a incredible an incredible beat and excellent guidance.
It's too early to say.
We'll know in a week and in two weeks, we'll have a better picture.
So don't do anything crazy with your portfolio.
Yeah.
So I think that we're starting to get the little test pump.
I think everyone got excited when S&P tagged 7,000 earlier today,
but that's not going to hold.
That's going to bust right through eventually.
Just give it some time.
Give it 10 days, you know, not 10 hours. So, yeah.
FOMC, that was kind of a big nothing burger.
That was a snoozer.
No one thought they'd lower rates.
They didn't lower rates.
So no surprises there.
But Powell's comments were pretty bullish.
He went out of his way to say that employment seems to be better than holding steady, maybe even improving. He said that, you know, economy and growth looks robust.
It felt like he went out of his way to say, instead of his neutral, like, you know, there's
some good, there's some bad, there's some uh middle ground it seemed like
he went out of his way to say uh uh bullish mouth noises and so um yeah so i think i think the bulls
are holding all the cards uh short medium long term um it feels like uh the bear thesis is making
less and less sense the the the only uh arguments they seem to be making these days is,
what about this black swan?
What about that black swan?
But you could say that all year, all decade,
and maybe sure, eventually you'll be right.
But you'll, you know, good luck ever making any money off of that.
And, I mean, I thought it was also really interesting that
it made news yesterday but Michael Burry going out of his way to
to get back into GameStop like you don't do that if you're short-term or medium-term
bearish because you know whatever you think of the company it is a it's a high beta turnaround play and there's no point in putting any money
into it unless you think that the economy is going to get um it's going to stay decent or
even get better so to me it's even very bullish so yeah oh hey how are you doing man
i think oh here's one of the ghosts phantom what's up man yo yo what's up with you bro
yo what are your thoughts um stocks whatever it is you want to talk about bro yeah i remember i
don't know if you remember last time i was on here i was telling you about uranium like probably oh you you you right yeah so it's up like 15
percent today and it's up like 70 percent year to date like it's it's i i remember uranium back in like February of 22 when the, like the whole Ukraine situation started going down.
And I know like some people here on CT have been waiting for the uranium
trade for a minute,
man.
And yeah,
it's in price discovery again,
but you,
you use like the, the main, the main one. I think that's the, it's in price discovery again. But UUU is like the main one.
I think that's the S&P for uranium.
But its market cap is only like six bill, I think.
So you look at what's valued at that level in crypto, it's like Zcash.
That's that six bill style i mean link link is valued more than
uranium same thing with bitcoin cash cardano is trading at like
the two x multiple above uh uranium which is honestly insane
yeah that's what i was saying last time too like a lot of ct is so focused on crypto and meme coins they don't realize you can make like meme coin type of money
in trad fi like some of these um penny stocks that i have are like the one i got in was like 60
million market cap that's literally a coin you know 60 million market cap it's at like 140 million
now and it really hasn't gone anywhere.
These are like genuine copper exploration companies that if they just hit a big copper field,
which it seems like their neighbors are hitting, they immediately teleport to like billion because
they get bought out by bigger mining companies like BHP. So I've honestly just been super focused
on commodities. I find it really silly if you're still in the trenches at this point.
You just got to keep your head on the silver and follow the money.
But Bitcoin sentiment at this point is as if it's at like 30K, 40, 50K, to be honest.
And I'm very impressed with how well it is holding with how bad the sentiment is.
And I know there's a lot of weight on this crypto bill.
crypto bill um i think got rejected like two months ago or last month and i think it does
I think it got rejected like two months ago or last month.
it will take some type of catalyst like that that if um it does get passed and it does get
this i don't know what exactly what it is it's like some crypto bill structure um if it does
get passed i think that could be the catalyst for some type of movement because you know with what's
going on with gold and silver um it's clearly hyperinflation at play.
It's clearly dollar losing value and finally catching up with all the money that they printed
during COVID. It's about time that, you know, these assets are starting to understand that.
I think Bitcoin is just due eventually. Sentiment's honestly one of the worst I've seen. So it's
going to be really interesting, but I'm still focused on commodities right now.
I've been in uranium since, I mean, I caught silver,
started scaling out of that at 90, above 90.
So still selling that slowly.
Uranium, I got to start thinking of an exit strategy slowly.
Copper still hasn't really moved much yet.
I'm really heavy in copper.
And what I've been rotating my silver profits to,
and I made a tweet about this recently, is emerging markets.
If you're on TradingView right now, check EEM, check EWA, EWZ.
These are international indices of Australia.
These are essentially the S&P 500s of ETFs of Australia, Mexico, Latin America, Brazil, all of them are breaking out like multi
decade consolidations, which I just love because those are only a few times in a lifetime type of
plans. Like silver is a 45 year resistance break. Those only come a few times in a lifetime. So I've
actually been rotating my silver profits to emerging markets. I'd keep an eye on that too if you
feel like you've missed out on all this movement. Those have all been breaking out of like 20-year
downtrends or 20-year sideways consolidation. And on top of that, Ondo added tokenized
equities on Solana recently, and you could buy EEM on Solana. So I moved some of my stable coins
that have just been sitting, bought a good amount of that. I bought more copper on chain.
That's kind of where my focus has been. And I've honestly been cooking, to be honest.
I haven't been looking at the trenches at all much. That's kind of where I'm at.
Dude, this is skill-maxing arc.
Skill-maxing arc, indeed.
Yeah, that's something that Joe had mentioned.
I think it was like two weeks ago or something like that.
He had mentioned EM.
And that is...
Go ahead, Matt.
I don't know.
It feels like...
Joe mentioned it like two weeks ago, I think.
I mean, I guess if you're excited about...
If you're trying to swing a short-term trade,
or you really, really want to roll weekly call options.
But otherwise, I don't know.
To me, Bitcoin is my international exposure.
That is my pure international play.
I don't need to be an expert in the best stocks in Australia or Brazil.
What are the odds?
Does anyone here realistically think a Brazilian ETF or Australian ETF
is going to outperform Bitcoin over the next three to five years?
Come on.
Seriously, honestly, no.
There are some people.
What a waste.
So I'm happy.
Hey, I'm happy for emerging markets.
And I think it's absolutely interesting signal.
But I'm not going to put money into that.
You know?
And how would I even know, like,
if the trade starts to go wrong,
how would I even know, shit, the thesis doesn't make sense
and it's time to sell, other than just, like, staring at price, you know?
I'm not up on my, who's up on their Nicaraguan politics, you know?
Or their Colombian, Venezuelan, you know?
Yeah, I get what you're saying.
Uruguay, you name it. No, but I get what you're saying you name it no but i get what you're saying but
like i mean i'm a charts guy and the charts kind of speak for themselves on top of that i'm not
handpicking the stocks i'm just buying the etfs for them like ewz i think is um
mexico etf and i know thesis wise a lot of tech companies are migrating down um
mexico ewa chart is absolutely immaculate it's australia etf most of those tech companies are migrating down Mexico. EWA chart is absolutely immaculate.
It's Australia ETF.
Most of those top companies are like commodity exploration,
like copper and silver and gold miners
that are just Australian companies.
So it's not necessarily you have to handpick
the stocks themselves,
but the charts speak for themselves.
You can't replicate and you can't
replicate and redo a 20-year consolidation break out but that's not like okay but but that's hey
that's an excellent point but then to me that says like we'll just stay long copper or just
stay long silver or just stay long gold that is pure international exposure too you know
and that way yeah and that way because like hey say if what if the next year
it's um it's south africa and nigeria who crush it on the commodities and materials trade and
australia takes a little bit of a back seat well you're still gonna print money because you're just
holding gold or you're just holding silver you're just holding copper like you don't care which
country crushes it you just want to make as long as someone's making the asset price go up.
And that's my thesis for Bitcoin.
Like, I don't care who the next big marginal buyer is.
I'm just betting that, like, over time, give me three years, give me five years,
it's going to crush almost every other ETF.
Yeah.
Well, I would have agreed with you a couple years ago
before Bitcoin was already at this level that it has been.
But the thing, the difference is you can't,
like Bitcoin will never be the most conductive metal on earth.
It will never be like,
like other than it being used for transfer and store of value,
there is an actual real industrial like use case, which is fine, right?
I love Bitcoin.
Bitcoin's my biggest spot holding still.
But I'm not going to lie.
I've been liking Monero a little bit more recently.
Like what Bitcoin is supposed to be is what Monero kind of is now.
No tier one exchange listings.
No like the Matrix hates it.
Banned everywhere.ia just banned it
irreplaceable like untraceable so i mean i don't get me wrong i love bitcoin but you just got to
follow the money like i'm not gonna sit here and watch my money just sit when i know there's
opportunities elsewhere well yeah i have a lot of bitcoin so i'm not i'm never gonna sell it it's
just there's no point in looking at it when there's money to be made elsewhere.
On top of that, I could use my taxed money to make more of it.
The thing with Bitcoin, it's like kind of all on chain.
It's kind of like, it's kind of a dead end.
Like I can't buy contracts on Bitcoin.
Maybe I can, but like it's not worth it when I already have on chain.
So what do I do with the tax money?
Get what I'm saying?
I hear you. I hear you.
There's so many options and there's no wrong way.
That's so true.
But I got to head out.
I just wanted to hop in and give my two cents.
I might hop in later.
Yeah, no doubt.
Matt, any thoughts on earnings?
So far, so good.
We're in the historic band S&P 500.
So far, you're seeing high 70s as far as companies meeting and beating earnings and expectations. That's right in line with five-year and 10-year averages.
It's so far so good.
Like I was saying earlier, you know, the next two weeks,
we're going to have all the MAG7 minus NVIDIA.
We're going to have the biggest and the most followed tech stocks report too.
And plus we'll have jobs and employment data to chew over first week of Feb. So
it'll decide much. We won't have to be guessing. We'll have some surreal numbers to look at.
But yeah, I don't see any reason to get worried. I don't see any thesis that the Bears said would happen materializing.
It looks like, you know, we had a good indication first week of January,
jobs week, that, hey, the bottom might be here.
The worst might be behind us.
Maybe things start improving.
And if February confirms it,
as far as jobs and employment data goes,
again, I think S&P 500 smashes 7,000 once and for all.
I think NASDAQ smashes 24,000 once and for all.
And away we go.
And then last but not least,
look, unless you think something critically changed with Bitcoin,
unless you think something mysteriously wrong happened, you better believe it's going to catch
up in a hurry. If broader indexes stop their consolidation and punch higher, Bitcoin is going
to teleport back to six digits. Mark my words. It's had three months of
consolidation. And if you haven't noticed, it hasn't come close to a new lower low going all
the way back to early November 2025. Like it's just been consolidating sideways. And the previous
speaker is absolutely right. People are depressed. People are wondering, what's wrong with it?
How come it's not going up only like gold and silver?
But it's just a healthy correction consolidation that Bitcoin does once a year, every year,
for as long as I've ever been paying attention to it.
The trick is staying zoomed out and realizing,
hey, it's still as good as the reason you were buying it
at 50 and 55k in 2024, at 20 and 25k in 2023, and at 15k back in 2022. Like, why are you not
re-upping? Do you think, unless your thesis is that Bitcoin permanently decoupled from the economy, from the S&P 500, from the NASDAQ, from materials and metals, unless that's your thesis, that Bitcoin is permanently decoupled, it's going to catch up and it's going to catch up in a hurry.
And then we're all going to be just resurfacing the bear tweets from all the usual names that we love to make fun of.
Like, I remember when you called it dead in 2026
and just beat them over the head with it for the rest of the year.
So I'm long.
I think it's one of those beautiful moments
where you can be bullish Bitcoin short, medium, long term.
So I want to own, you know,
I want to own Bitcoin every which way I can.
I want to own AI every which way I can.
I, you know, barring a black swan, I think this market, this broad market, which way I can. I want to own AI every which way I can.
Barring a black swan, I think this market, this broad market
goes up.
Can I come in on that, Robby?
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
I also have a
friend in the audience. His name is
Sullivan. Sullivan
McGee. I'm going to send him an invite
to speak. Okay. On the last speaker, what's different than the other times is the other
times the S&P wasn't making new highs while Bitcoin is getting further and further and further
and now underperforming by 30%. Okay, so that's what's different.
The relative to performance of Bitcoin and strategy
versus the S&P is accelerating.
At the same time, Bitcoin volatility
is near its all-time low.
And that's paper Bitcoin showing up.
So is there a level?
If Bitcoin hit a 52-week low,
would that shake anyone's view?
If Bitcoin would go to a two-year low,
how much does Bitcoin have to under-reform
for you to say,
I'm going to look for something that's going up a lot,
something that's going up fast?
At what point do you have to donate your time and capital risk against something that's going up so much faster,
so much more reliably for so much longer periods of time. I'm curious.
I just don't understand. I don't understand the point we're trying to make like bitcoin has a negative 25 to negative 35 sell-off once a year
every year you can set your watch to it it's like it's like clockwork you know and then every every
four years sure it has a bear market but i'm telling you like look that's not what i said sir
that is not what i said like 30 25 35 sell that, $0.35 sell, that's not the issue.
It's the fact that the S&P is making new highs, and this is going.
You see, the other times the S&P was dragged down.
So it sounds like you're in the Bitcoin has permanently decoupled from the economy.
I did not say that.
That's what you do, and a lot of people do.
They want to change your argument to make it so maximalist.
No, no, no.
I am a Bitcoin megabull.
I'm a megabull on Bitcoin.
So you don't think it catches up?
So you don't think Bitcoin catches up to S&P 500?
It's just a very simple question.
I think Bitcoin is going to lead the NASDAQ lower.
I think strategy is going to lead Bitcoin lower.
A lot and for a long time. Wait, so you're bearish NASDAQ, you're think strategy is going to leave Bitcoin lower a lot and for a long time.
Wait, so you're bearish NASDAQ, you're bearish S&P 500?
No, I didn't say I'm bearish the S&P 500.
You just said you think Bitcoin leads NASDAQ lower.
That's right. And I think that a lot of the stuff in the S&P 500,
the stuff that's not NASDAQ, is going to have a real good party.
Staples, healthcare, utilities, interest rate sensitives. I think they is going to have a real good party staples healthcare utilities interest
rate sensitives i think they're going to melt up massively massively much more than after the dot
com because we have much more money okay and so i'm super i'm super bullish on the sack what
i feel like you're trying to ride both the bull and the bear you can't ride both horses with the
same i can do
whatever i want buddy but that's not what i'm doing what i'm saying is we have a massive
readjustment in price massive and you're encouraging people to say there is no low that you won't you
won't absorb and i'm saying i'd rather put my money in something's working and come back to Bitcoin when Bitcoin's outperforming.
And at some point, do you ever have an underperformance level against every asset in the world other than alts and micro strategy?
Is there any point which you're going to take reality and stop underperforming other things that just melt up?
Is that your relationship that you're married to it i'm
i guess i i guess i just i don't know i have a different thesis i don't go chasing it's not
about a thesis they're chasing when something is going up for six months for a year accelerating
away faster like somebody is stuck in the blocks and the other one's just having a party. Can't a little of capital leave a loser that's melting down relative to everything else and go a little into something that's working?
And if it works, keep on doing it because you know you can reverse.
Would you write it down 80%?
Would you write it down 90, 95, 99, 99 point?
90, 95, 99, 99.
What is your limit?
What is your limit?
I'm simply saying that once a year,
Bitcoin has a 25% to 35% correction.
Every year, once a year.
And here we are again.
But it doesn't do that when the S&P is making a new high.
a new high and that's a misleading statement yes it actually does look at 2024 bitcoin traded
And that's a misleading statement.
Yes, it actually does.
Look at 2024.
bitcoin had a massive correction and traded sideways for over 200 days people were dying
of blood s&p wasn't accelerating to new highs in that time for s&p s&p 500 had a magnificent 2024
i don't know what we're talking you know you can't round these things to a whole year. In the time when Bitcoin was going down, the market was going down.
Now you have Bitcoin going down even when the market's going up.
That is novel.
So if it's down 50, would you then consider changing?
Or would you say, oh, there's only 50 left?
Is there any level you ever recognize underperformance of Bitcoin is actionable?
David, hold on a second. actionable yeah let me just ask let
me just jump in here real quick i was actually on my uh peloton uh while david was going uh for
about 40 minutes and the more he talked the faster i pedaled so i'm gonna your cardiologist will thank
me all right your cardiologist will thank me david missed his calling as a Peloton instructor. But anyway, I want to go back.
I will just ask Matt.
So in 2024, you're right.
But why did Bitcoin rally at the end of 2024?
Well, I think we had a new administration getting everyone very excited.
Exactly, right. So Trump co-opted the crypto community, Bitcoin at large,
promised them the world, promised them deregulation,
promised them the strategic Bitcoin reserve,
and everybody got excited.
All the Bitcoin community, all the Bitcoin bros voted for Trump
because they were one-issue voters.
Let's pump my bags.
Trump gets elected, and the price does pump for a few weeks.
And then nothing.
And then gives it all back.
So I think I'm kind of like...
No, no, no.
Hold on.
Hold on.
It doubled.
It went from 50 to 100.
And if I'm looking at the screen, right?
Okay.
And where are we at?
We're at 90 instead of 100.
Like that's not... I don't see the doom that I'm looking at the screen, right? Okay, and where are we at? We're at 90 instead of 100. Like, that's not...
I don't see the doom that I'm hearing.
Like, where is the doom?
Like, okay.
I think what David's trying to say is like,
and I agree with David here,
you know, Bitcoin, as I've always said,
is a risk-on, risk-off asset.
It's the purest manifestation of risk-taking.
Would you say we're in a risk-on?
I think we're in...
Look at the spot. Look at NASDAQ. Look. Would you say we're in a risk-on? I think we're in... Look at the SPI, look at NASDAQ, look at Russell.
We are literally in a risk-on environment and Bitcoin has not participated.
Hasn't past tense. Is there a point at which you would accept that it's not?
Down 30, down 40, down 50, down 60. Is there any level you'd recognize that Bitcoin is accelerating
versus the S&P?
Is there any level? Or is it
90, 99, 99.9
that you would write it down?
Is there any level?
Because I know for me, if Bitcoin
starts outperforming the S&P by a little,
I'm on board.
Can I jump in? I think there's levels.
What is it? What's your level uh let's see
and i'm not saying no i would say i would say i'm no i no i i would i'm first gonna say you
never sell your bitcoin you just don't you never sell your that's insane all right that's insane
literally telling someone.
Five minutes ago, you just called yourself a mega bull on Bitcoin.
That's right.
I'd rather have 10 times as many coins as one.
Can I go ahead and answer it?
Let me go ahead and answer it.
Yeah.
No, because you said you would, and then you said I wouldn't.
Which one is it?
That's what I'm saying.
So let's say that S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell, you name it, metals, let's say it all punches higher.
They finished their three-month consolidation and you see S&P way above 7,000.
You see NASDAQ punching higher to 25,000, 26,000.
And you see Bitcoin lose, what was the low?
Let's just call it 80.
That's an even number.
Let's say Bitcoin loses its 80K support
while you have broader indexes all punching higher.
To me, that says, okay, yeah, the marginal investor
has definitely lost short-term faith in Bitcoin,
and it's not being treated as correlating anymore.
Because everyone keeps dismissing Bitcoin as,
oh, it's just levered Nasdaq.
Oh, it's just levered Q's.
After your statement, we're going to pass it over to Cantrell
because I can't have David pass out.
Okay.
He needs to conserve his energy.
But that's my point.
If you see the markets are still risk-on,
you see the index is still going higher
and Bitcoin loses its support, oh, well then, yeah, it's not trading like leopard NASDAQ anymore, really, is it, right now in the short term?
Actually, it still is.
It's just early.
It's going to have a huge underperformance, and eventually it'll drag down the NASDAQ.
I don't think it works like that.
It used to lead by 100 times as much it used to lead by a hundred times as much
i don't see bitcoin dragging the nasdaq down that that math it dragged it up it will drag it down
can't go go ahead man
so the biggest difference between bitcoin and equities most of them at least and why equities
are going up and i agree with o'hare that it's still a risk on move but there's a huge difference
in the last six five months four months than the prior three years, which is, and this goes to the
difference between Bitcoin and everything else, is Bitcoin does not have earnings in the stock
market than NASDAQ do. And that is the difference. And basically, if you look at Bitcoin over the
last five years, it more or less only goes up when credit spreads are tightening or when market multiples are
expanding market multiples stopped going up a few months ago the entire move in equities
and most of it uh last year was better earnings data.
And when you look at where crypto started rolling over,
it was roughly around where credit spreads more or less hit their lows.
They went up a little bit during the shutdown and they're back to those lows.
There's just no more fuel in that tank.
And that means that equity markets are not going to see more PE expansion, most likely
and, and assets with no earnings that are risk on or more trade, more speculatively
like Bitcoin and crypto are, don't have the tailwinds they had in 23 and 24, most of 2025.
That to me seems like a very reasonable explanation and certainly at least fits the
behavior of those assets of that asset compared to equities. And that's why the NASDAQ broke down with crypto because there's earnings in the NASDAQ.
Does it need P expansion to go up?
At least in the past, Bitcoin has effectively needed risk premiums measured in credit or
equities to continue to fall.
And that hasn't happened.
And that's not going on anymore.
That ended last year.
So unless that changes,
stuff like Bitcoin, I think, is going to lag
without further PE expansion or credit spreads tightening.
further p expansion or uh credit spreads tightening
you said it better than me but that's what's going on well and again we can i can mathematically
not only look at the relationships of the past again pull up a chart of credit spreads and crypto
they move together and it makes sense they move together more importantly. It's a risk asset, doesn't have earnings, so it means it's totally driven by sentiment rather than any fundamental basis.
Another measure of liquidity, the tightening of spreads is expanding liquidity.
The stability of spreads is a decay of liquidity, and the widening of spreads is even worse.
And so if Bitcoin's going lower and it's causing a lot of equity
loss from people that hold it on leverage, it was 4.28 trillion crypto. Now it's 3 trillion.
If it goes to 2 trillion, that's just more equity loss and that's more leverage decay.
And that could then ultimately lead to liquidations in the lower tier cross-owned assets and start something bigger when emerging markets
indonesia was down 13 today the etf if you get contagion in things losing money it will destroy
liquidity and bitcoin will be vulnerable to that the second bitcoin accelerates
versus the nasdaq i'm all in it's just not doing that
versus the nasdaq i'm all in it's just not doing that
and the difference also with small caps like the russell is that this move in the russell and the
outperformance since i don't know late i don't know some somewhere around october of last year
most of that and for the first time has come on the back of rising earning rising earnings expectations
every other small cap rally in 23 24 in the first nine months of 2025 were all
reactions to macro events that pushed down multiple expansions and exactly this is the first one
that is on the back of improving macro and earnings fundamentals. And that's
another problem because people were shorting the Russell 2000 to buy Bitcoin for a decade,
and it was working out gorgeously. Not anymore. A lot of stuff that was used to buy Bitcoin as a
funding source, whether it was NASDAQ, S&P, small cap,
everything you shorted you won in Bitcoin.
And now every one of those trades is going bad at an accelerating rate.
Change that and I'm in.
But you've got to have a transformation.
You've got to stop the bleeding.
Sullivan, how are you, man?
Thanks for coming up.
Feel free to give some of your thoughts.
What's up, Wabi?
I'll add a little bit to the Bitcoin FUD here.
Just a little bit, though.
It's funny.
It's funny, I just kind of tweeted about it a few minutes ago, but I don't really know that
I just kind of tweeted about it a few minutes ago.
people have quite grasped the thematic significance of these moves that we're seeing,
particularly on these Bitcoin gold, Bitcoin silver pairs. I mean, one of the things I love
about crypto and Bitcoin is that it's kind of like a chameleon in the sense that it seems like
it always has kind of like this different fundamental narrative that's driving price at any given time.
Sure, you know, you can look under the hood, liquidity metrics, rates, whatever, and justify movements as well.
But, you know, typically for these bull runs, we always do see some form of important fundamental narrative that drives price.
And really, throughout this market cycle, it has been digital gold and the storage of value narrative.
So the fact that we're seeing Bitcoin just completely capitulate against gold and silver, that feels very significant to me, right? Because if you are expecting something to perform and behave as digital gold and a storage of value,
but then when push came to shove, you're just trading as tech beta.
And let's be clear, I know the NASDAQ is pressing at all-time highs.
I'm not really expecting price discovery on the NASDAQ, personally.
We could still get that, obviously.
We're not that far away, but I'm not really expecting it at this point
You know, I think
With that said like we're behaving as tech beta and tech a lot of it at least like Nvidia has been in distribution for
a pretty long while in my opinion, but especially over the course of the last like three or four months
I would say towards like the end of the last three or four months, I would say towards the end of the third quarter, really, inter-distribution.
If that's kind of the path that Bitcoin's following, well, I mean, basically the narrative that underpinned the entire cycle is, in my opinion, it's going to have to be scrapped a little bit.
And what does that mean for the current valuation of Bitcoin?
Well, I think it means it needs to go a lot lower. Can I ask a question? We had a four-year cycle
that broke, right? Three up years, one down year. That was what people said. There's no need to sell
Bitcoin because it can't metaphysically not be up in 2025 because it's only a third year from a down year.
That was an axiom of the nature of crypto
by the cultists and the religionists.
I don't want people to have symmetry.
I mean...
No, I'm just saying symmetry.
Anyone with the brain knew that wasn't some law of physics.
You know something?
You're smart enough to realize that, but a lot of people were told there's zero risk.
They'll run it at the close because that's part of the power of the people in the whale.
We violated the four-year cycle. cycles, the first cycle had a 1,400% rise and a 5,500% rise, 5.5 decimals, okay? You had
seven decimals in your first four-year cycle. Then you had one double digit, 1.3 decibel
in the second, and then we had a 300% year move.
And in the last three years, two years, we only had 140, okay?
We are decelerating the acceleration because of the market cap.
And we lost the four-year cycle. And now we had a three-month bearish engulfing candle.
You had an 800 basis point range for the third quarter of last year,
down from the 80,000, 100 times as much in 2009. If you close below 74 on March 31,
you have a yearly bearish engulfing candle. That's a lot of coming distribution. So I'm just saying,
if you see it go up, you should be, and accelerate versus the NASDAQ, you should say that's a lot of coming distribution. So I'm just saying, if you see it go up,
you should be, and accelerate versus the NASDAQ, you should say that's a sign of rise in liquidity,
give it exposure in my mind and my opinion. If you fail to see that, and it decelerates lower,
led lower by an accelerating lower strategy, whose coins will get shaken loose,
then if you can't accept that both things are true,
you're asymmetric and I'm symmetric.
I will buy on the way up.
I will sell on the way down.
But if you don't get it to stop accelerating lower
and you get closer to shaking through those coins,
let's say,
David, let me,
so I pointed this out earlier,
but maybe you missed this point.
I think what bears haven't, maybe they've realized that the smart ones are probably
sweating bullets, but I think what bears are going to realize is, wait, Bitcoin hasn't
made a new lower low since its first, that capitulation candle back in November 2025.
I'm glad you brought that up because that's
the most misleading thing you could say.
Okay, but it's been floating.
No, no, it's the most misleading thing you could say.
That's a false useful data. Please finish.
I'll explain why
what you said is so misleading. Please continue.
Please finish.
I'll explain after you finish.
You said you want to finish. Please finish. I don't want you finish. You said you want to finish.
Please finish.
I don't want to cut you off.
But this is like, I think a lot of bears, they all have their own reason, but they've
been riding the short on Bitcoin and it had been making money, you know, from 125 to 115
to 100 to 95, all the way down to 80.
And it was good money while it was good. Hey, I rode Eats capitulation from above 4K to below 3,
and that was good money.
But I think where the bears are going to get blown up now is,
look, if S&P breaks out to new all-time highs,
if NASDAQ breaks out to new all-time highs,
you already have Russell doing that.
You already have emerging markets doing that.
Not Indonesia.
I don't care about Indonesia.
It's the fourth largest country in the world.
That's nice for the population, not for capita.
Congrats.
They've got a lot of people.
They're the biggest copper exporter.
Okay, please continue. Anyway, I'm just saying that if you have every index
and material and commodity still printing higher, punching higher, the shorts on Bitcoin are going
to get real scared real quick and start closing that because they don't want to get blown out of
the water. And again, I come back to- Would you agree if that doesn't happen,
there's a real problem with your narrative? Yes, I would agree if that doesn't happen.
That's all I wanted.
That there is something that could say, if it keeps on melting down.
But if I have to, look, I am placing a large bet that it's going to rise and rejoin everything else.
I feel bad for your capital base.
Okay.
I'll tell you why I think you're going to be wrong. join everything else. I feel bad for your capital base. Okay. Well, then you can't call yourself a mega Bitcoin.
You're going to be wrong.
You can't call yourself a mega Bitcoin.
