Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. The The limit.
Walk along the razor's edge.
Don't look down, just keep your energy in it. It's down to ski. Yeah.
No return. We've got to. Past the point of no return Reach the top, but still you gotta learn how to keep it
Hit the throw wheel and double the stakes
Ride a wide open like a bat out of hand
Calling for the fight for the young Nothing gonna stop you Oh, yeah. Welcome to the limits.
Take it maybe one step forward.
Our games still playing so we better stay. Thank you. Oh, my. Oh Oh Welcome to the limits.
Stand on the razor's head.
Don't look down, just eat your head.
I'm pushing to the limit. What is going on, guys?
Welcome back. The day we've all been waiting for fomc we have
pal talking about how the economy is resilient how he's proud of the job that they have done
when it comes to all things inflation now before i officially get started on talking to markets
giving my opening intro i want to thank you all so much for tuning in. Whether you're here live in the audience,
you're listening to the recording,
welcome back to Market Talk,
brought to you by BecauseBitcoin.
I'm here joined by Donnie and Chill.
Perhaps Josh is going to join us.
He's coming back from Dubai.
He's at the airport right now.
Says he's going to join us the next 45 minutes to an hour.
So we'll see if he pulls through. And yeah, should be a very, very, very interesting stream for you
guys. BTC, after our stream yesterday, actually went on to test the current range high, which is
just below 98,000. Ethereum pushed up a little bit as well. Same thing with Solana.
And I really think that this massive, massive chop solidation that we've been in
over the last, like, let's call it week and a half, right?
Because we did bottom at 73K.
I do think there's going to be some resolution here very shortly
to either the upside or the downside.
And if it's the downside, honestly, I think it's going to be so quick
that it'll probably be reminiscent of what we saw in early August of last year
where many of us here in America were asleep.
And literally within a week and a half we were already uh i think we were already
back at like 60k or close to 60k i think yeah i think i think we actually went to 64 and then we
had a higher low retest at like 55k or something like that but uh nonetheless guys um nvidia up
three percent today i actually kind of have my suspicion that NVIDIA is going to have
one more go at the highs later on in Q4 of this year. But I really don't think that the summertime
is going to be reminiscent of what we saw in prior summers. This is a very, very different market regime, a very different
administration that is very much aware of the volatility that they caused. If you guys remember
when the VIX was at the top, you had Besant come out and say that should the stock market go any
lower, that they have the tools to come in and save the day, aka emergency cuts, QE, and all that stuff.
So if one day the stock market actually does make a lower low and crypto has an event where
majors are down 30%, I personally wouldn't be scared. I'm not really expecting it, but should it come, then that's actually significant, as it does entail that we might undergo an echo bubble regime of QE and ZERP.
Again, just want to mention that it's more so an echo bubble, not really trillions and trillions going to the hands of Americans for direct stimulus checks, right?
I'm not sure what's going on with the Doge stimulus checks.
I think those were supposed to come out later on this summer in Q4.
That's the Doge program where the government saved a ton of money and all that stuff.
And Elon has stated that they do have plans to have some of that money come to the hands of American citizens.
So we'll see how that pans out, right?
I also have my suspicion that you'll be having more publicly traded companies come out and
add more Bitcoin to their balance sheet, talk more about crypto.
My suspicion is that HUD will be the next the next darling baby of the stock market similar
to how nvidia was the darling baby in 23 mstr was in 24 and similar to how we had moonshot
be the darling baby company of this industry last year i think an echo bubble of that will probably be Robinhood. But again, just dubious speculation.
But outside of that, guys, local price action, kind of choppy today, to be honest.
Usually with FOMC, you want to give it until the start of next week.
And you typically see crypto front run what equities are going to do over the weekend.
So Saylor did mention how they're about to raise a ton of cash, aka dilute the crap out
of their stock in order to buy more Bitcoin.
But nonetheless, guys, before we officially get started, if you guys can go ahead and
please, please, please, please show some love to the space.
You might be asking yourself, how can I show some love to the space you might be asking yourself how can i show some love to the space how can i show my love and appreciation to all the guys
here at bb well i've got an answer for you guys if you guys can go ahead and click the spaces tab
once you do that you'll see all of our cool profile pictures and right above you'll see a
nice link that says x.com slash i
slash spaces you guys can go ahead and smash up the like button and most importantly repost
retweet the spaces link as it does a number of things it helps out with the algorithm helps to
bring more eyes and ears to the space more winners to the brand all that good stuff helps get more
people in here and of course
i'm appreciative of everything that you guys do when it comes to that you guys do a fantastic job
and i want to thank you all so i got chill up here got donnie up here donnie what's going on
brother how are you here we are man hope your morning is uh been going great i'm actually fasting right now until
the sun starts to set then i'm gonna have um a pretty solid uh bison steak as soon as uh the
stream um is over do they have bison uh where you're at man it's like the uh like when it comes to meat, bison is like the Bitcoin of all beefs.
It's like the cream of the crop, the top dog.
I have no idea about bison, if we have it here or not.
Yeah, I've always just had regular beef, to be honest. But what's the deal with bison if we have it here or not um yeah i've always just had regular beef to be honest but um
what's what's the deal with bison gives you more test yeah it's i think it's the most anabolic
beef that humans are regular humans are capable of eating right like there are some people that are able to eat like, like bear meat and stuff and other stuff like, uh, like tiger,
horse. I would certainly have trouble digesting foods like that. But bison, um,
it might be a placebo effect, but I don't think so. But ever since I started eating bison
consistently, like you just feel stronger. Um, and the energy that you get is through the roof,
because if you, if you eat just regular beef, you'll notice that at some point you'll just feel
lethargic, right? Like compare someone that eats three pounds
of regular cow beef a day,
compared to someone that eats three pounds
of bison or buffalo, right?
And for those that think eating three pounds of beef
is a lot, it's really not.
I think it's only like, I think it's only like 1500 calories.
It just makes you feel stronger, better, more consistent energy.
If you just look at bison and buffalo, they're just tanks, and they're fast, and they're not slow and lethargic.
It's helped me out, man, for sure sure might have to try it out bro yeah um
so i guess people want to hear about the markets so honestly you know there was no reaction on the
chart to be honest you had like a tiny little bit of i don't know 10 minute 15 minute price action
on the bitcoin chart but overall like fC, if you guys watched it or
anything like that, you probably heard the words wait and see about 100 times. So that's basically
what it is, right? I still believe the market's waiting for a Trump and or Fed put, which basically
just means that the Trump put is going to be tariff clarity and the Fed put is going to be
reacting to that tariff clarity or some sort of change in the data that they're seeing
with the labor market and or inflation.
So he made that very clear in this FOMC pretty much.
And the reason why I'm choosing to pretty much stay bullish
with our current setup is obviously the Bitcoin chart
structurally from the lows is in an accumulation model.
You broke market structure to bullish on the daily timeframe and you maintained weekly
timeframe bullish market structure, right?
You never lost weekly timeframe market structure, which your market structure low on the weekly
timeframe is actually the 49K WIC low
So you didn't even get close to that.
You even front run the 2024 high.
Bitcoin's looking bullish.
You have global liquidity
And I actually made a post
about kind of my thoughts
around the FOMC and stuff.
Is basically in my view and in my experience over the last like I would say year of really backtesting this out and just like watching markets slowly.
Whenever you have liquidity conditions primed or the chart setup is primed for one direction, let's say you've got a distribution setup, so the chart is primed to go lower.
That's when you tend to have all of the bearish catalysts lurking once that move is confirmed to the downside to assist the directional bias.
So we kind of had that from the highs
when we started nuking to these lower levels.
You just had consistent fodder on tariffs,
exaggerating prices to the downside.
But we've had a flip in that nature
and we've also had a flip in global liquidity.
So you now have a backdrop
of new all-time highs in global liquidity.
The only thing that's missing now
is which we are incrementally getting back to the market,
is risk appetite to renew.
And how is it going to renew?
Well, around this tariff clarity.
And we have seen over the last few weeks
backing off on the posturing around tariffs.
So it's basically telling me that,
okay, we have an accumulation set up.
All time frames are looking bullish for Bitcoin.
Global liquidity is at all time highs.
And they're wanting to back off the one thing that was assisting the price bias to the downside.
They're backing off from that.
I think that you're setting up to incrementally get to the new all-time high. Once you have the clarity, both from Trump and the Fed,
then there's no reason for people to not, well, to be worried about their risk allocations,
aka you're going to get a risk on confirmation.
And you might even get a liquidity shift out of gold from that pivot back to risk.
So the backdrop for what we have right now is bullish.
And even the chart structures on all time frames are looking bullish.
So I just think, yeah, over the next like month or two, maybe even three, you're just
going to have this incrementally unfold in the positive direction and prices are going
So yeah, if you guys see what I posted
in the nest, read that when you have time. But we know that inflation is cooling. You look at
the oil chart, it's absolutely nuked below multi-year lows. That's going to help a lot
with inflation. Even Powell himself noted that they have made significant progress towards inflation, getting towards that 2% goal. So, you know, things are almost at the line for a pivot from them. But again, they're not going to move until this tariff clarity is underway. So I guess we'll just have to wait for that to start basically unfolding. And I personally think that that's going to happen sooner rather than later.
They won't drag it on purely because of what I'm seeing on the charts.
Like, you know, if it was meant to be bearish,
we would probably see bearish structure.
You wouldn't see global liquidity at all-time highs and things like that, right?
We have bullish backdrop, bullish market structure,
and, you know, waiting for these little catalysts
appetite so overall pretty much nothing from that FOMC and I think yeah over the next like month or
two you're gonna have this just unfold slowly so that's basically my overall take on the FOMC
meeting from today and BTCTC itself is still maintaining,
even on low timeframes, pretty good structure.
I was checking USDT dominance and USDC dominance combined.
You've got this like bear flag sort of pattern on the chart
where we had a high around April 6th,
which was the bottom of BTC.
Ever since then, we've been downtrend trending and now we've kind of been chopping sideways
for the last like, how long is this?
And you're essentially setting up to go lower, right?
If stablecoin dominance is going lower, it's going to be a positive outcome for BTC.
So I don't know, all the charts are pointing higher.
And yeah, it's still looking
really good to me. Donnie, man, do you think we went through a quick bear market with the entire
space and the saving grace was these institutions buying like Sailor and uh the etfs i mean just take a look at the
alts right they got absolutely clobbered and if it wasn't for those etfs man we probably would
have gone to like probably like 50k if it wasn't uh for the ets and just that passive bid.
We're talking like a 23% correction on SPX,
25% plus correction for the NASDAQ.
And yeah, I think that's sort of why we've seen the timeline be a bit more quiet
because people were in alts and they were a
bit too early on calling for the trump pump right like if you remember man um for the majority of
the year i was basically just calling for the doom of the space and then it's like oh man like
uh you're too bearish don't you know know? Pro-crypto legislation, pro-crypto this, pro-crypto that.
And those people are just completely blown out of the water, man.
There was very few people that actually survived the downturn
that we're recently coming out of.
Yeah, but I think you can see now,
even if you did hold majority of your positions on that downturn bearing in mind they're not like complete garbage uh tokens and
or projects um a lot of them are coming back pretty strong right i literally have like dust bags that
are if they come back which they are right now if they come back any further than they already are
coming back that's going to be worth a lot. And it's like pure dust in my portfolio, right?
You know, we've been saying that even rug charts are going to come back given we get,
you know, kind of like this broader market euphoria phase in the market. So in terms of
did we go through a bear market and all that, I think what you said there about how significantly stocks dumped relative to BTC, bearing in mind BTC is like, what was it, a $2 trillion asset at the highs.
It dipped 31% and the NASDAQ dipped 26%, did you say, or more than that?
Yeah, roughly like 25%, 26%.
26% and it's a $25 trillion asset class.
So, you know, massive divergence in size,
yet BTC maintained pretty close to 26% on that dip,
which, you know, that dip affected all markets.
One, because you had that liquidity hiccup
and two, because you had, you know,
massive fears and risk off from the tariff sentiment
so i think that was a big giveaway that there's huge demand for btc and that potentially over the
next i don't know six to twelve months there could be a big rotation or just a very heavy
demand or bid for btc just purely based off of that dip alone. That's massive, right? And even when the stock market was just absolutely puking,
down 21%, BTC on those days was holding up on the chart,
You had follow through on the dip shortly after that.
But I think when stocks plummeted, BTC was around 79, 80K
and didn't really move for the next 24, 36 hours.
And, you know, obviously the US is wanting to take four.
Oh, sorry, my mic cut off.
Oh, sorry, my mic cut off.
Yeah, the US putting through the Bitcoin reserve
and just overall showing more interest in the space
and all this kind of stuff.
I think that's a big giveaway as to what's to come, right?
When all of this quote-unquote uncertainty goes away,
which I think is very close.
Yeah, I think it happens this summer, man.
Remember the notion like, alright, Q1 is supposed to be bullish.
I thought it was after the inauguration, I kind of started having second thoughts.
Yeah, well, Q1 was bullish, right?
We came from the elections in November
and we pumped all the way until, let's say, late December
and then even had like a second pump in January.
So Q1 was still, you're at the highs, right?
So, you know, that was a very tricky time
because the timing for like how the chart should play out and stuff,
you know, we've covered it multiple times.
When we were around like 90K at the low, we didn't want to pump going into the inauguration.
We wanted to pump on the day of the inauguration so we can use a bullish catalyst to actually
fuel kind of an accumulation setup from the lows of the chart to potentially go to new
We actually started hype pumping into it about seven days out, which kind of gave it away
this might actually be a sell-and-use event.
But then the downside was super hard to predict for altcoins
and for the broader market because, one, you had the Trump token launch,
which is a pure liquidity black swan in the altcoin market.
That was like something you would never have seen before.
So how are you going to account for that?
Yeah, how are you going to account for that for altcoins?
And then we saw the DXY hiccup, but how could you account that, you know,
we're going to go through all of this trade war stuff around the tariffs to assist that downside, you know, to the levels that it came at.
And like, again, it's still so impressive that BTC held weekly market structure during all of that with a stock market nuke.
Like that should give it away what's going to happen to btc over the next six to 12 months man that trump token was uh something else um i mean
everyone was bullish on it when it first came out but then like within 10 hours or within the same
i think i think it was in the same like, couple of hours after it launched.
I think Melania was, that was the omen right there, bro.
That was the one that just, like, made people second guess Trump token.
There was even a barren one that didn't really catch a lot of hype, but it ended up going to half a bill.
I'm not sure if it was official. I don't think it was.
But nonetheless, it ended up going to half a bill.
And then within 48 hours, the party was basically over.
But does anyone here think Trump token makes an all-time high? the party was basically over. But do you think,
does anyone here think Trump token makes an all-time high?
Do you guys think it ever makes an all-time high
or is it just good to the water?
I just found out a few days ago
who has no crypto experience, by the way,
I'm bearish on that thing. That thing is not going
back to at all times, at least maybe not soon, maybe eventually, possibly, but I don't see that
being the case anytime soon, man. I think everyone in the space looks at the Trump token as being like the catalyst at the top that really started the downturn. It extracted a ton
of liquidity. It left a bad taste in a lot of people's mouths. And not only the general space,
but even like degens, trenchers that are, you know, that they buy and sell rugs and scams and grifting tokens every day.
But somehow, some way, the Trump coin left a bad taste in their mouth, even though they have an
appetite for some of these things or are willing to trade them for profit. So I don't think that
the Trump token goes back to an all-time high, at least not soon, because, again,
Trump was the reason that crypto had this major downturn. He's the one who kind of,
you know, he put his mouth to work, and now we're dumping to ridiculous levels that we didn't think
that we were going to get to here in q1
and now we're at q2 and he's the one that's kind of uh holding us back uh from the pump again
because had it not been for all of this tariff talk we probably could have even gotten uh a um
a cut by now um but he's introducing a lot of uncertainty. So I just feel like from a crypto perspective, a crypto market participant perspective, looking out, you know, Dave, we don't want to, a lot of people don't want to buy that token. A lot of people don't see the need to be in it.
changes, perhaps we're going full bull at some point, you know, later this year, or, or
we continue next year, you know, maybe sentiment around Trump could change. But until that's the
case, I really don't see Trump making an all time, the Trump token making another all time high,
you know, short term. Yeah, I would agree with the last part that you said there chill like i remember when the token
launched it went parabolic pretty much on one of these spaces i was like oh there's just no way you
reach that high one more time anytime soon but now looking at the chart and what what i'm seeing with
like what we're waiting for for the market to flip bullish it's going to be a trump put therefore if
trump is the catalyst to make us go higher and this chart is looking like it wants to
base out and then you enter a state of the market which we haven't had the entire cycle of a sustained
bullish uptrend for months I think this token could catch a bid it could probably rotate right
back to the all-time highs it would probably be the most FOMO token in the whole market if it did
you know start to move back up and one little announcement that he had of like a dinner or
whatever you saw what happened to the chart with
still shit conditions in the market.
So I think I wouldn't rule it out
that it can't go back to the highs,
but you're just going to have to time that
Imagine if it's actually the cycle top, like Trump coin makes an all time high. But I think that would have to be,
let me say this carefully, that would have to be when sentiment has changed so much,
the market has changed so much that at this point, we are full bull, like everything is pumping.
full bull, like everything is pumping. No one, you know, the, you know, CT has the memory of
a goldfish and so do many traders in crypto. And so, you know, at some point when the upside is
just so much so that, you know, they forget what, they forget the downside that it caused,
you know, at that point, sure, like anything could happen, any token can pump,
including Trump's token. And then maybe during that sort of risk on season, if there's any sort
of announcements like we got recently about the dinner, you know, maybe it could pump the token
even more. One thing I will say is, I doubt that the Trump family and probably his sons, but I doubt that they give up on pumping that token. So maybe at some point it comes back. But I think as we as we turn up here and when I say short term, I mean the next like I'd say I'd give it maybe even, you know, the next two months.
two months. I'm not really expecting much upside for the Trump token. But certainly,
like I said, as we go into the rest of the year, maybe that comes back on the table.
Braggsy, what are your thoughts on Trump coin?
bro i need my bags to pump i've been waiting forever can you please make it go up like
somebody make it go up the trump point i don't know it's like i think the thing with memes okay
if you were like even doing this last like on bnb the initial hype for like the overwhelming majority of memes is usually in the beginning
it's the oldest trick in the book you know and people like have this illusion that they're early
to something that's never ever ever going to come back so you have to essentially
buy and sell at the same time so i was here like the same sometimes on Solana even
the same day so I was here last cycle so I got the memo so I you know so I've
been selling stuff the entire the entire bull run all the memes right but with
this certain memes if they have a narrative that have enough staying power
so the catalyst for doge last cycle was Elon Musk coming out of the blue,
saying that he loves Dogecoin, and then going on Saturday Night Live.
That was like the top of Doge last cycle.
And then because he has a Shiba Inu dog, that's how that came about, right,
and became the second biggest runner because you had kind of, you know, the hype around it through Elon.
So I think if Trump does something to, you know, regain some of that hype, I do think it is
possible for that specific token, because Trump's the president, that that could have that kind of effect that we saw with Elon
and Doge last cycle. Like it is possible. But I would I would warn people to be wary. I think
with the market market pumps, that's like a well branded token. Right. Because I heard somebody
say it earlier, somebody who didn't know anything about crypto went and bought the Trump token
because people don't know anything about crypto, but maybe they like Trump.
It's an easier consumable brand for them to just like go buy that.
So I think that I think like there is a chance like it could have that effect.
But for me personally, it's not a buy right now.
I'd have to kind of see like a similar kind of marketing thing underway,
kind of like how Elon did with Dogecoin indirectly last cycle, because when they were at that
meeting, even I think there might be a clip online, it wasn't like widely spread, but they
asked Trump about the Trump token. And he kind of acted like
he didn't know anything about it. He wasn't like, even though he put on his Twitter in person,
he wasn't like, yeah, guys, you know, like, like hyping it up the same way that I saw Elon kind of
do with Doge saying Doge to the moon. So that'd be my like, hesitation is like, don't count on it.
But it is possible because you do have like a strong
figurehead there that could potentially like create the the hype around the token so that's
kind of the thing with memes is like you really need a strong voice uh for the ones that are
going to last for the ones you don't have to hit it and quit it that day or that week,
you really need a strong voice behind the token to kind of reinstate the message, right? And who's a stronger voice than last cycle? Elon Musk. Nobody.
He was like the richest guy in the world last cycle in 2021.
21. So that that's what caused Doge to go like absolutely bonkers. So like if if Trump does the,
So that's what caused Doge to go like absolutely bonkers.
you know, a similar thing, I could see that. And then even if you look at memes this cycle,
the memes that I've been doing the best, they have a mouth, I call mouthpiece, the guys don't
like when I say that about them, but they have a mouthpiece behind the token, they have like,
one or two people or, you know, a group of three people
that are consistently talking about that one thing and they did not change their opinion.
And those are the meme tokens that are at the top of the charts and they're going to continue
to be so. And I think those are better bets for long term. But nine, you know, 95, I don't know the statistic, 99.9% of memes, especially if it's on Solana,
it's a quick trade. Even the Trump, you could argue, was a quick trade. He had to buy it and
sell it that same day within 48 hours, right? So it's like, that's kind of the thing with these
things is they're short-term, the majority of time, they're short-term trades,
is the majority of the time they're short-term trades, especially if they're lower cap.
The higher cap ones do have room to breathe because when the market pumps, the communities
are established. They already have the exchanges. They already have access to people, especially
the ones listed on Robinhood, which I believe this cycle are like Pepe, Popcat, and a couple
others. Those are going to have an easier time pumping when the market's sling back
because they have easier access to the new retail buyers.
So it's like there are some things that could play out long term,
but how high they're going to go.
Like for Trump to go to an all-time high,
like back to $70 billion or whatever it is,
I mean, that's a lot of money that's going to have to be shoved in there.
So in my opinion, he'd have to be shilling it in a way,
kind of like we saw Elon do with Doge last cycle.
I was going to ask you a question.
Well, listen, before you ask me that question, I have the answers to questions that people don't even know how to ask. So whatever you're about to ask me, man, I have the answer. But go ahead, man.
Well, listen, before you ask me that question,
What makes you so perpetually optimistic for the next six to 18 months what are you seeing out there wabi
well personally you know when i when i do these shows like i i always try to refrain from it
being the wabi show i really do because like i i know i have a habit with these because dude
spaces are so different than youtube like spaces are so much than YouTube. Like, spaces are so much harder than YouTube.
Like, for spaces, you need to be entertaining.
You need to have charisma.
Whether on YouTube, like, at some point, you'll get into the algorithm,
and the algorithm does the work for you, right?
People who have done spaces on YouTube know exactly what I'm
talking about but I'll answer your question I'll try to be quick man because you know when I do
these space sometimes I do have a habit of like ranting but I would say this one the stock market
sell-off right when I got you knowish, when Kanye was talking about releasing a token in early February,
I thought the downturn would be a bit slower, right?
I thought it would be a bit slower.
And as the weeks went on, everyone who was in crypto started to talk about macro.
And then when I saw the S&P break, I think it was like 5,700, something like that, where it broke the – it just blasted to the downside below the 200-day moving average I'm like all right this shit is going to at the very at the very least retest 5100 right and I was
on market check when ETH was at 2400 and the S&P was still above the 200-day
moving average and I'm like yo I think the S&P is at the very like that was me being optimistic, going to 5100.
But if I'm extremely bearish, you know, towards the 200 weekly moving average, depending on how all this unfolds.
Right. With this whole tariff situation.
And then I remember Trump was just yapping is like The black one was actually Trump, dude.
And then you remember on that Spaces, we had Matt and Joe on.
And both Matt and Joe were saying, oh, why are you getting optimistic about stocks and all that?
Like, no, there's no point.
You remember, remember dude it was
two gorillas versus 100 tradfibros part one and i remember saying like all right if the market
opens up on a black monday which did happen um and we we had back to back three percent four percent
down days uh on the stock market.
And you remember the headlines, $1 trillion wiped off the stock market, $2 trillion wiped
And I was like, hang on, what's the inverse of this?
And we were saying it's BTC breaking through 100K.
And when has this, where has this this happened before this whole trade war situation 2018
uh that bear market happened from uh i think it was like early september and we ended up bottoming
in early december and the drawdowns on the s p were 18 nasdaq 20 and then this time around, they were, they were both indices were down over 20% in less than
two months. The most brutal drawdown in, I mean, not, I hate saying modern history, like all the
best pumps in modern history or whatever, but it was the quickest downturn that we've seen in
markets in a very, very, very long time. It was the slower version of the COVID crash.
And, you know, everyone was talking about tariffs and like meme coin guys who literally try to be
like Murad and just have these scheduled tweets saying like, oh, millionaires will be minted
or whatever, right? like buy the dip everyone's
bearish time to be bullish which is kind of stupid by the way like everyone in a bull market is
bullish so why would you be bearish right like being contrarian has its time and place right
but the trend is your friend right so just because everyone is bearish in a bear market doesn't mean that you should be bullish right you should turn bullish when you start seeing people that like to dabble
and you know risk like risk of risk start to talk about macro right like you had guys pulling
fractals of xyz token going to billions, right?
And it's like, what makes your altcoin that much more special than this other altcoin,
Especially altcoins that were introduced during a regime of hyper gamble, right?
The pump fund era, I'm going to call it that, right?
And very few altcoins this cycle, right, quote unquote cycle since the FTX low, have survived
more than two quarters and have actually made higher highs against BTC, right?
You want to see how your altcoin is doing paired against Bitcoin.
That tells the true story, honestly.
tells the true story honestly but people don't want to see that but nonetheless right i think
But people don't want to see that.
it was that space and then that following monday the s&p opened at 4800 and change
btc hit 73k eth at 1300 soul hit 90 people were uh throwing shorts on soul at those levels. And I'm like, hang on. So you want to get short all of a sudden after an insane downturn
and when meme coin bros turn into macro gurus
and when Peter Schiflestein hosts one of his legendary spaces
where typically the bottom is in when Peter Schifflstein hosts spaces.
It was time to get bulled up, right?
And then I put out that tweet or post, whatever, in real time,
and I'll put it up on the nest.
And I said, this is the effing bottom.
Time to get ready and buy your own blood.
march 2020 style event congrats you got it just slower meme corners are now expressing caution
after the entire alt market is down 90 percent and uh eth btc had retraced all of its gains
not that i'm really bullish like on eth which i hardly ever am honestly I think it needs um a new narrative
I I really really do you can't just have meme coins on a chain you you just can't um with soul
I understand and and I'm I'm yapping here but like whenever whenever someone asks me a question
I like to be very detailed and very thorough.
Because you know me, Donnie.
I hate just giving loaded answers, and then the room gets quiet.
Like, oh, what are you seeing in the market?
Three sentences, and then that's it.
There's no engaging conversation.
Seoul had more than just pump fun they had um they had consumer consumer goods they had that that stupid phone and whether people like it or not you
essentially got a free phone because you got like three thousand dollars plus worth of airdrops i think close to 10k uh at this point and you also had a moonshot which
got most of its fees through uh through soul based products right so all coins whatever
and it became the the top uh app on the app store right like there there are more metrics outside of charts is is what i like to
say right um and solana was probably the best go-to-market um infra product that crypto has
made since eith first started in in 2015 right eith was called the uh the uh what the fuck was it called man um not ultrasound money it was called
like the the the global cloud computer or some shit like that when vitalik uh had eath mainnet
and he went to the manor beach convention center i forgot the stupid narrative that it was right and then you had the icos and all of that and i i think
east's like peak in uh popularity and traction or whatever was in in 2020 and 2017 and unless
kiwi and zerb comes back like you're only gonna have this weird echo bubble of people slanging
and banging meme coins and And I think this industry deserves
more than just a cheap version of financial nihilism. But going back to your question,
that's what makes me optimistic. That entire setup of the indices just melting down in six weeks, 20 plus percent. And during a Trump regime,
what you've seen is these bear markets and equities, specifically equities,
they usually happen very, very fast. 2018 and equities was very, very fast. And yes,
throughout most of 2018, crypto was in a bear market. But what people forget is tech went to Valhalla while crypto was shitting the bed in 2018.
2014 was a shit show in crypto.
But you take a look at Q4, 2014, dude, take a look at the NASDAQ.
You could have bought in zero days and printed gajillions while BTC was melting down towards $100, $110, whatever the actual low was.
But when you combine all of that and just for like monetary policy is right now where QT is slowing down,
we've been in this regime for over two years when it comes to tapering.
Rates at some point will go one to one with
So we do have a ways to go as far as cuts go.
I think they're normalization cuts, which is extrudingly bullish for the market.
And of course, you combine that with Trump potentially setting up his quote-unquote stock market to look good for midterms.
Midterms over the last eight years have typically been bearish years.
And, you know, I don't think that's the case this time.
And yeah, that's really what makes me optimistic over the next, not six months, because I think everyone is just like, well, not everyone, but there's this weird thing where like the Q4 of the post-halving year is supposed to be increasingly bullish.
And I just don't think that's the case, man.
I just don't think that's the case.
And if the Fed is about to go in a period of easing or easier monetary policy,
going into Q4 of this year or Q1 of next year,
I just don't think the market is just going to have a parabolic spike
in top in two months, right?
And I think this melt-up is going to last a bit longer, a slow melt-up, right?
It'll start off big and then just slowly curve upwards like a 2017 style
type of stuff that's that's kind of like where i'm at we just have to get through this like
weird time period until qt actually stops um so so basically you think um you think that we've
basically gone through like a quick bear market.
We've had our reset, and now you see a longer time horizon from here to stay optimistic.
And again, I never try to be smart or try to sound smart.
This platform is filled with many people that try to sound smart right this platform is filled with many people that try to to sound
smart or look smart but at the end of the day man like we're just here uh dubiously speculating
right um it's my analysis versus the markets and the market doesn't owe me anything right
all we can do is look at prior data and just recognize the cycle for what it is. And this cycle has mostly been front-running everything.
Like, dude, if the Fed stops QT, like, yes, you'll have a bunch of, you know,
front-running and all that stuff.
But the ultimate blow-off, right, the ultimate blow-off is probably when you
start having some QE in Zerp, which I think is going to come with UBI.
But I think that's more of like a 2028 thing, man.
If we look at, like, Trump's terms,
there's always some shit show.
You have the trade war, right?
I don't think there's a pandemic coming or anything like that.
But I do think UBI is going to be a thing. But that's a discussion for another time. Right. Like, how is it possible, bro, that like you have retail jobs still paying the same wages that they did pre covid? But yet, like the cost of real estate is still extremely extremely elevated pricing, right? Even though housing is starting to correct, right?
The peak of housing was in like Q4 of 23.
And rent, so far this year since Trump got in,
a lot of these, again, this is just like real world macro stuff.
A lot of these new developments,
at least here in South Florida, like Miami, that area, you have a lot of these new developments, at least here in South Florida, like Miami, that area,
you have a lot of these new development properties with these new real estate companies where
the head of the property development company is 28, 27. They built these fancy buildings,
and yet the occupancy is only at 10%. at like 10 so they're like hey you know move in
here and we'll give you four free months three free months or they'll they or they've dropped
their prices from q4 um by like 30 so if it if it doesn't get fixed at some point you know there there will be
something that quote unquote breaks but again that's just you know dubiously speculating man
what are your thoughts oh i don't really have too much to add to that other than like the timeline
of uh you know i think there's a decent percentage
of people that think there's one more final parabolic rally and then we top out but then
when you look at how long kind of the global liquidity cycle has been delayed for the easing
of financial conditions if that does start to play out in a meaningful manner then it should last longer than
just say you know september or october of this year so again there's still many uh ways this
can play out and it still could be a top around there but i'm just not sure yet right we'll see
i will definitely last way longer it could last all the way until end of 27 at this point i will say this sorry end
of 26 i will say this i've been on these spaces and um for for a while and i've said multiple times
you know within the last six months that i'm starting to see you know signs or i'm starting
to see evidence of an extended quote-unquote if we're still like, you know, generalizing it that way.
And so far, I continue to see more and more evidence of an extended cycle.
So Wabi, I do agree with a lot of what you say.
You know, a lot of a ton of macro guys can give you a much better understanding of the
business cycle, but we're much closer to the bottom of the business cycle than the top. So that's good in terms of cyclicality and how far we are along this
quote unquote cycle. So you look at the ISM, that's the business cycle. That's one.
But then the other thing that you can look at as well is the, man, for some reason, I'm drawing a blank,
and I just literally had it in my mind. But the ISM is one. And you look at things like global,
I mean, the M2 is like a chart is like a meme now. But you look at that as well. You look at
the fact that, you know, gold has kind of like led Bitcoin. And so,
you know, there's a little bit of that that you can take into consideration. But, you know,
the business cycle to me is probably one of the biggest pieces of evidence that kind of show you
how long the cycle can go. But then also, we haven't really cut rates yet. We've gotten Bitcoin to over 100k, you know, with rates,
you know, not really making that with with rates not being cut that much. And so the fact that,
you know, the Fed, you know, let's look at it this way as well. Jerome Powell has until May
2026, right? That's when his term is up. More than likely, he'll be replaced by someone,
is up. More than likely, he'll be replaced by someone that is in Trump's camp or someone that
would favor Trump's agenda. And so that would then mean that they would probably be more likely to
cut rates if they aren't cut by then. More than likely, they will. But who knows what that picture
would look like by May next year. Either way, we still have a lot of rate cuts ahead of us than behind us.
And we're already sitting at practically 100K right now.
And we're only, what, 10% or 15% away from all-time high.
So I can only imagine what happens when we actually do start cutting rates and pumping liquidity into the system in a traditional way like we did back in 2020.
and pumping liquidity into the system in a traditional way like we did back in 2020.
But the longer it takes for Powell to make a move, the more certain I get of a more extended run.
I think that's the perfect setup for catching a lot of people offside.
You know, I do it like this weekly stream. And on this weekly stream, I kind of talked about in Q3, us kind of getting this localized top around like, you know, let's call it 140, 150K, whatever you want to call it.
And kind of everyone gravitating towards that as a quote unquote cycle top just to pull back and then just continue to melt up again.
I just don't see us speed running this through to 150K and then calling it quits when, you know,
last cycle we topped out. We made the, you know, we can call it a double top, but when we did the double top at 69K, you know, altcoins and
on-chain markets were still popping off well into January and February, you know,
of the following year. So, you know, even if we do top, you know, some point this year,
even with, according to what we did in previous cycles, you know, that still will
encourage risk, risk taking in the market. And that will likely go on for a few months after.
And so I can only imagine what will happen if we not only make a, you know, a new all time high,
but what if we pull back and we just continue to go crazy with a parabolic run.
I've had the target of a 200K Bitcoin for pretty much this entire time.
200K Bitcoin, 15K ETH, and then 1,200 at least for Sol.
I don't know if that's too low.
I haven't looked at my target for Sol in a long time.
I mostly look at Bitcoin and ETH.
And so that's really where I stand.
So that's why I agree a lot with what you said, Wabi.
There's a lot that's pointing to an extended run.
And it's not something that, you know, we're getting bullish.
All of a sudden, we have these, you know, extended run calls.
I say I've been calling this for a long time to say this has been the thought for a while.
And, you know, I've been note taking and putting bookmarks on evidence that I see.
And as I see that evidence continue to build up, it just the case becomes more and more clear.
And now that becomes a full-on thesis that I can,
that I can act upon. But for now, the evidence is continuing to build up to show that, you know,
we will be going into an extended cycle. But I like the fact that not everybody thinks that,
you know, we don't want to be in a crowded trade. I want everyone to think we top out at 150K.
I want everyone to, you know, say that, oh man, you're crazy. Extended cycle, that would
never happen. Sure. No problem. I don't mind being the only one or one of the few to go into
the market acting on something like this. And for me, that just makes me even more bullish because
essentially no one will see it coming and a lot of people will get caught offside. And that's
what markets do, right? Markets try to catch people offside.
So, yeah, I agree with with what you say, Wabi.
You know, I'll probably I'll probably keep watching and see what other evidence comes up.
But it's looking good so far.
Can anyone on the panel say what topped the market in 2021?
What was the headline that topped the market in November of 2021?
Facebook changing their name to meta or something like that?
It was the Federal Reserve announcing that they're going to hike rates.
When Powell said that, I think it was the exact same day
Powell announced that rates were going to get hiked.
but that's something else as well right i think the equivalent of that uh will probably be like
you know meta facebook changing into meta and talking about the metaverse
changing into meta and talking about the metaverse
for the market, honestly.
Someone called Tom Crown. Tom tom crown what's up man
uh tom crown are you there and i wasn't wasn't near my mic because i was just uh
vibing listening for a while yep what's up man i'm digging it i'm just sitting here looking looking at my charts i'm
a bit of a artist a bit of a bitcoin maxi although not i can only like now come back to that for a
while i was like i'm not a bitcoin maxi i don't like this weirdness but i always always been a
bitcoin guy it's like what i believe in in the space what got me in the space uh and the cycle i think a lot of a lot of people are underestimating how many people are
already kind of looking for the top to be in like bitcoin at 110 has been going down like
kind of over thing uh certainly more people need to be convinced, I feel, but like for the next move, next move up.
But I don't think the top is in for this cycle.
I guess if you just look back and say,
why would we not be just looking at November, November, December?
I don't know, of this year, four years exactly from 69.
It seems like it's all just going to play out exactly the same way it always does,
but it already feels so different with like the preview, uh, all time high in
March, like pre-halving Bitcoin dominance at C 6% today, like right now,
basically, uh, very, very weird, some very weird stuff going on.
I feel like in relation with those charts and where we we
should be or are and so i kind of dig some of these ideas of just like maybe a longer cycle of
slower moves because these these moves do not feel like any full run that i've like
i don't know experienced this has been the most boring cycle i feel even though the biggest things
have happened and there's just
like some i don't know disconnect there maybe that's just the void of the excitement and things
that are coming by the end of the year those are my thoughts i also just like packed this
bowl and ripped it and i was listening to you guys so i'm not as coherent as i was doing that's it's fine man um i i would allude that to there's no doh kwan or sbf
yeah there's no sbf i i i i find myself repeating this a lot but like a lot of the excitement that
came from from the market was because you had these young figureheads
propping cheap money helicopter money into the market and they actually rather they made it seem
like they believed in something right and so when you have these uh influential people that
can largely see what how retail is spreading out their money, right?
People like SBF, people like CZ.
Have you ever played Super Smash Brothers, man?
You know, have you ever played Super Smash Brothers?
Yeah, SBF was Master Hand.
Same thing with CZ. And you just don't have those entities
around anymore like you don't have three ac either um you know vcs that control this big pool of uh
cheap money that's leveraged with customer funds and you know it's essentially a a fugazi it was a fugazi so like i have a really
hard time comparing this cycle to 21 because it's just 21 was an anomaly it's an it was an anomaly
man um and in 2017 the alt market was so small that any narrative that was happening, people held on to.
They didn't just let go of it after a month or two, right?
You had Nioh, Walton Chain, Dragon Chain, Wabi.
Dude, bro, we can go on for like years there and they all just did nothing and
they all like trend to zero basically of course there's some that are some i guess they did do
something man they changed the world for a couple of months for a couple of months they changed the
world on a promise right um at least they promised things back in back in that cycle at least
everyone was like dude virginia do the craziest things now it's just like this is the funniest
picture of a cat that you've ever seen that's like our business model the pump dot fun business model
yeah i want the promises that literally ended the same as the cats though
yeah yeah man um neo is still doing things and they're sitting on a ton of money
same thing with uh or is it stuck no so i i got in the market in December of 17, and I only bought NIO.
I think I bought a small chunk of NIO when we had that dip to 6K on BTC in February of 2018.
I had a small chunk, forgot about it.
I don't know where it's at.
I think I have the wallet somewhere
and I just haven't really looked back at NEO
an all time high though in May of 21 it almost made an all-time high though um in may of 21 it almost made an all-time high
it went from four bucks from that low in december of 2018 all the way back to like 160
in may of 2021 and its all-time high is that is like 180 or something like that and that's another thing too in 2021 you had
previous cycle tokens almost all make all-time highs or at least double top right um
monero mostly most all of them yeah monero actually xrp broke so maybe they all break
all-time high someday right yeah who knows i don't know how without xrp i'd be a lot less optimistic about that
like it's like look these old ass coins and cycles before like can sometimes
at least go like go break it a little i do not an xrp fan but i like that
yeah man for my light coin it's basically what i'm saying yeah imagine
if that's actually a thing right like people start bidding these uh these old dino tokens
where like most of the supply is already out in the market and the quote-unquote teams are working
diligently man um does anyone else want to throw something up i'm not sure if anyone here
in the audience usually i start wrapping up the space at this time but if anyone in the audience
wants to come on up uh talk your book talk markets there's a little request button to the bottom left
you can smash you can smash the little mic thing and
uh i'll bring you right on up but um do you guys have anything else that you want to discuss
anything you want to throw out to the audience before uh i wrap up here guys yeah last thing
i'll i'll mention uh in regards to the extended cycle um one thing i've seen a lot is that this cycle has caught a lot of people off
guard, but it's also made people work a lot harder for gains that came easy in past cycles,
right? Like you guys were just talking about in 2017, 2021, there are only a few altcoins out
there. And a lot of people, a lot of the market participants at that time the the
behavior was different the the psychology the game theory behind holding was a lot different back then
as well so there was um this coming into this cycle now you have you know the pump fun era which
to me honestly changed the game when it came to the altcoin market. Like it's no, it's, it's a lot, it's a lot different.
And we've seen various metrics that kind of shown that in terms of the
performance of, you know, bigger assets like ETH and stuff like that.
You know, when you chart the launch of pump, pump fund, you know,
you see the effect that it's had on other like larger assets when, you know, gains come quicker and there are a ton of different tokens to trade.
It's now created this kind of this sort of, you know, this loop, this economy of new tokens coming to launch, but then also needing to attach themselves to a narrative and et cetera, et cetera. And so that's taken away that all that attention that goes into pump fun has been taken away from, you know, other, um, other tokens.
And a lot of people might complain about that saying, you know, memes are worthless and there's
a lot of other, you know, uh, innovative projects out there that are building something real,
et cetera. And I get that part. Um, but I do think all of this has made a lot of these like kind of crypto OGs. It's made them burn out. It's made them tired. It's made them almost want or beg for, you know, an all time high that comes at 150K nice and early. And then that will be it for them. And they can go to the beach somewhere and relax finally.
So I do feel like there is almost a need or a want for a new all time high sooner than later, because, you know, a lot of these a lot of these OGs, they've been at it for a long time.
And they're just looking to retire where, you know, I feel like a lot of this a lot of these new market participants there.
I mean, we see what's we see what people are bidding at the very low of the market.
We called this last three months, the Q1, we called it a mini bear.
And I feel like that's a fair assessment.
But at the same time, during the lows of this mini bear market, you know, there are a ton of crazy
tickers that a lot of people were trading, you know, a ton of crazy narratives that honestly
don't have any staying power, aren't going to make any sense in a couple of months.
And a lot of these are probably going to end up going to zero.
But we see a lot of these, you know, newer meme coins like, you know, come out and because
people are just looking for something
to buy. They don't care what the macro looks like. They don't care whether they're addicted,
whether they just want something to bid, whether they just need to make it that bad that they need
to buy something every single day, no matter what it is. Whatever is driving that volume,
no matter what it is, whatever is driving that volume, that volume will persist.
And so going into this, you know, the rest of this cycle, last cycle, we saw the extended run that altcoins had
and how, you know, people were still willing to take a lot of risk.
And even then, it was more so risk on like, you know, DeFi innovation, things like, you know, Omforks and Tombforks.
like, you know, DeFi innovation, things like, you know, Omforks and Tombforks, people were playing
around with a lot of these, these DeFi experiments to see what they could latch on to. And so you
still had people trying to look for something valuable to buy. Whereas, you know, this time
around, we're aping things like, you know, you name it, Fartcoin or like Italian Rot or Gork or like whatever these
Like people are really, they're willing to bid whatever.
And to a certain extent, it might not even matter the, to a certain extent, it might
not even matter the overall market conditions.
They want to buy something every day and that's what they'll do
regardless. So I think that's even further evidence of an extended cycle or at least
an extended length of opportunity in the on-chain altcoin market that we'll see this time around
because of the determination of the DGENs in the trenches and their willingness to bid.
But then also, you know, we'll see this kind of split in between, you know, OGs and these
new age traders where the OGs just kind of want it to be over.
And these new age traders, they just want the next, you know, 10X, the next 1500X or
whatever it is that they're chasing.
So I think there's going to be a lot of that that we'll see, but a lot of opportunity out
So for anyone listening on these spaces, you're not late like many people would make you believe.
That doesn't mean you don't take profits.
That doesn't mean you don't have a system that you work with.
That doesn't mean that you don't take some chips off the table because obviously there's always risk, but at the same time, there's going to still be
How do trees get on the internet?
Because you said lock in.
So Trump just put this out on Truth Social.
And he says, we are making great progress on the one big, beautiful bill.
Our economy is doing well, but it's going to boom in a way never seen before.
We are going to do no tax on tips, no tax on seniors, Social Security, no tax on overtime, and much more. It'll be the biggest tax cut for middle and working class Americans by far.
It is time for Main Street to win.
Make America great again.
I hope that pumps the market, man.
I put that up on the nest.
Lower taxes. that's great that's pretty that's pretty bullish man in my opinion
but uh donnie tom rags anything else that you want to say and before i uh wrap up shop here now
yeah can you pump my bags
here is the thing with that right it's that sounds what was that supposed to be uh a joke
ragsy was that supposed to be funny are you supersy? Was that supposed to be funny, or are you super serious about that?
How about, like, I'll buy something, like a meme token,
and you can ape right after me.
Well, I have to ask you this question, right?
How did the barber win the race?
He knew a shortcut the shortcut the shortcut was aping after i buy something i think that yeah but but if it's a if
it's a frog token i have to ask myself what happens when a frog's car breaks down it gets towed
all right that's it that's it that's it from us guys uh hope you all i hope you all enjoyed uh
those last uh two minutes of comedy hour um but uh either way i'm gonna
wrap up here guys chill donnie ragsy things are coming on tom what's going on man um
i think i i don't think i've ever seen you on the timeline but welcome dude it was great having you
on um shout out to all you guys that
are here in the audience thank you thank you so much for pulling up whether you're here live in
the audience or you are listening to the recording if you guys enjoyed the stream and this is your
first time tuning in you think to yourself man i really enjoyed the last uh hour and a half of the
stream i really like what these guys had to uh had to banter about when it comes to the markets.
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And before I close out, I want to give a shout out to my Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ.
Without him, none of this would be possible.
And of course, I want to thank him for giving me another day of health to talk markets with you all. Definitely do not take any of this would be possible and of course i want to thank him for giving me another day of
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all we'll see you all on the next one.
But you're sleeping straight
I just made you straight away
And if the big fish is upon
When the world don't open up
When the world don't open up
And if I Ain't it fun You might be going You can ring anybody's bell to get what you want
You're sick and sick and sick and sick and sick and sick
You're living in love with
So what you gonna do with the world
So what you gonna do with the world oh
ain't it I'm living in the world I'm living in the world I'm living in the world I'm living in the world
I'm living in the world I'm living in the world Oh, what ain't good to be on your own. And if I can't count on your one and one.
Just a second. cause you're on your own in the real world don't go crying to your mama
cause you're on your own in the real world
don't go crying to your mama
cause you're on your own in the real world
don't go crying to your mama Oh
Baby now you're one of us any fun any fun If I live in the dark, beautiful If I live in the dark, beautiful
If I live in the dark, beautiful
If I live in the dark, beautiful
If I live in the dark, beautiful If I live in the dark, beautiful Oh Oh so