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Market Talk: FOMC day!HUGE pump on crypto and stocks! Are the lows in?
Recorded: March 19, 2025 Duration: 1:49:48Space Recording
Short Summary
The crypto market is experiencing a bullish sentiment following the recent FOMC meeting, with traders anticipating a pivot in monetary policy. Key discussions highlighted the potential for growth in Bitcoin and Ethereum, alongside emerging opportunities in meme coins and AI-related tokens, indicating a vibrant landscape for crypto enthusiasts.
Full Transcription
Yn ystod y cyfle hwn, mae'r cyfle hwn yn ystod y cyfle hwn.
Mae'r cyfle hwn yn ystod y cyfle hwn.
Mae'r cyfle hwn yn ystod y cyfle hwn.
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Mae'r cyfle hwn yn ystod y cyfle hwn. Mae'r cyfle hwn yn ystod y cyfle hwn. Mae'r cyfle hwn yn ystod y cyfle hwn.
Mae'r cyfle hwn yn ystod y cyfle hwn.
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Mae'r cyfle hwn yn ystod y cyfle hwn.
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Mae'r cyfle hwn yn ystod y cyfle hwn. Mae'r cyfle hwn yn ystod y cyfle hwn. Mae'r cyfle hwn yn ystod y cyfle hwn.
Mae'r cyfle hwn yn ystod y cyfle hwn.
Mae'r cyfle hwn yn ystod y cyfle hwn.
Mae'r cyfle hwn yn ystod y cyfle hwn.
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Mae'r cyfle hwn yn ystod y cyfle hwn. Mae'r cyfle hwn yn ystod y cyfle hwn. Mae'r cyfle hwn yn ystod y cyfle hwn.
Mae'r cyfle hwn yn ystod y cyfle hwn.
Mae'r cyfle hwn yn ystod y cyfle hwn.
Mae'r cyfle hwn yn ystod y cyfle hwn.
Mae'r cyfle hwn yn ystod y cyfle hwn.
Mae'r cyfle hwn yn ystod y cyfle hwn.
Mae'r cyfle hwn yn ystod y cyfle hwn. Mae'r cyfle hwn yn ystod y cyfle hwn. You It's alright! I'm standing in my way.
Tomorrow, I'm gonna be a fuck to pay
Feeling
So good today
At the mountain that I've had the time
It's so high
And I'm so behind
Get on up
Move on up
Ain't no way to cut, but hangin' down.
Feelin' so good today.
Ain't nobody standin' in my way.
I rollin' on a big price of pain.
Feelin' so good today.
There's a real that I have to cross
The other side, it's getting cold
I'm all wet, I'm all muddy
Right now, I'm feeling so good today. Get on fire.
And they give my way.
I know I'm gonna be approximately.
I'm feeling so good today.
Hey!
Hey!
All right.
Good luck.
Good luck. Alright! Good! Good boy!
How to do!
I'm fucking hard!
Got a job to do!
How to get on up.
Get on up.
Get on up.
Get on up.
So much a day.
Get on up.
Just standing in my way,
I'm going to the high road, I'm gonna be a price to pay,
I'm feeling so good today.
There's a mountain that I have to climb, it's so high,
and I'm so behind.
Get on up and move on.
Ain't no place for hiding.
Come on back.
So good today.
Ain't no doubt about it.
Standing in the way.
I'm on my own.
Gonna be a guy to pay.
I don't feel it. So good today, baby. I'm gonna be a dance page. I'm feeling so much danger in my head.
And climb that mountain.
Come on, heaven.
Come on, heaven.
Come on, heaven.
I'm feeling so good today.
I'm feeling so good today.
I'm feeling so good today.
I'm feeling so good today.
I'm feeling so good today.
I'm feeling so good today. I'm feeling so good today. Yo! What's up guys?
Donnie, brother, you've realized how I have started the show since Monday, right?
With that song, feeling so good.
And man, it seems like this whole tariff thing has already come and go, right?
Today was FOMC a couple of hours ago.
We had Powell flat out say that tariffs
are probably gonna have little to no effect on inflation.
True inflation probably is gonna start to trickle in to CPI
and more importantly, core CPI,
which is the metric that the Fed uses
to gauge monetary policy for now,
you're probably going to see a one handle probably in the May meeting coincide with the end of QT.
If you guys tuned in on Monday, I was talking about how majors can actually not rug
and make lower lows as they have been week over week since the inauguration.
And there's some time for some on chain stuff to actually do well.
If you guys tuned in to Monday's show,
I'm sure you heard it.
KTA, Keita up a ton since then.
So that is an RWA play.
I also got some elixir earlier today.
I do think along with AI, right, and some
AI stuff is bouncing up nicely. If Farcoin is up 2x off of the lows, man, I think if you're still
bullish on memes and you think meme coins are going to make new all-time highs later this year,
then Farcoin is probably going to make new all-time highs as well. So with that being said, hope you guys are doing okay
Welcome back to the show
Today we had FOMC and yesterday we had the Bank of Japan decision
Boj decided to remain flat. Thank goodness. The guys told me what was gonna happen beforehand
Sometimes like with these macro events, I really just don't really care about them
at this point.
I think there are things that move this market a lot more than macro, but sometimes we do
have to pay attention to that sort of stuff.
But nonetheless, if we do have majors continuing to consolidate here, specifically BTC, ETH, and Seoul. I do think
there's a chance for some on-chain action to occur, right? And speaking of Seoul, there
are some things that are pretty interesting that are going on there, but BASE for now
has captured lots of the attention when it comes to things being fruitful, to play some upside.
And I do think on this next run up,
whether it's in Q4 of this year, Q3 of this year,
or hell, even next quarter, my bet's on Q4.
Or rather, once you see the S&P trade
like five to 10% above its previous all-time high,
I think base is gonna shock a lot of people
as far as like the quantity of quality plays
to play on there that aren't just memes, to be honest.
As if we've seen over the last two years, right?
Whenever the market takes its true next leg higher,
you typically see fundamental narratives take place.
So in early Q1 of 23, we had AI going absolutely crazy, fat render Tau.
And then late Q3, early Q4 of 23, we had Solana going crazy.
Then the year after that, you had SUI going crazy.
And now, perhaps it is RWAs leading right perhaps it's going to be some RWA token that goes absolutely nuts. There's just not many tickers to play
within RWAs all you really have is Kida
Ondo which Ondo I'm not bullish on at the slightest to be honest
It's just been perpetually bleeding against majors for over a year now.
I'm also bullish on Elixir and outside of that dude there's really not much maybe OM
mantra, but it's up like 100x over the last 12 months. Once you have a ticker going from
like 100 mil to billions your risk to reward for upside, to capture upside, it's very capped.
No matter what anybody tells you, comparing it to where Luna hit last cycle, where XYZ
token hit last cycle, I think we got lost trying to compare this cycle to last cycle,
which was mainly driven by QE and Zerp, where anybody and their mother throwing a dart
at CoinMarketCap or CoinGecko made a ton of money.
And we're just not in that cycle, right?
We're in a cycle where it's very attention driven, right?
What pumps this quarter or what pumped in Q4 or Q3
might not come back, right?
We have examples of that throughout the last two years like Rollbit.
No one's talking about Rollbit anymore. Rollbit's been bleeding for about 18 months now against
majors. No one's talking about Celestia. No one's talking about Caspa. No one's talking about
Injective. No one's talking about Render even or TAU tokens that have just been profusely bleeding against majors.
And whenever we buy something outside of BTC,
you're explicitly telling the market that you have more edge than institutional flows.
And the notional buyer of all coins have been individuals that look to flip a quick buck,
right? People that want to have their 10X next week or in two weeks. And that was very
reflexive in the price action that we saw across Solana and across space in Q4. Right. You would
see these AI tokens trading at 5 mil. and by two to three weeks, they were trading
in the hundreds of millions or perhaps close to a billion.
AIXPT, Zerebro, both of those tokens within six, seven weeks, they were trading from 10
mil market cap to almost a billion.
That's completely unheard of, especially in this regime where monetary policy has been
restrictive, liquidity has been restrictive,
and for the most part, a lot of the stablecoins,
that people love to say,
oh, there's like hundreds of millions
of stablecoins on chain,
and most of those stablecoins are parked in yield,
and most of that yield is extracted by Justin Sun, right?
It's not really retail participants,
as most of the retail
last cycle got absolutely rinsed by FTX and Luna
and BlockFi, right?
We don't really have that right now.
We also don't have 3AC or Alameda to top our bags.
So it's again, very reflexive on the price action
that we've seen on our tokens last cycle
where it's really rotation heavy and all that sort of stuff.
But moving forward, right? We do have new tokens like hype, right?
It's a subject matter that we've covered on the space is a subject matter that I've
covered with our Discord.
I do think hype specifically is probably going to be that major that leads similar
to what Sui and Solana did during previous major inflection bottoms.
But nonetheless, I do like what Powell said.
I think this whole regime of quantitative tightening coming to an end and going back
to a neutral stance is pretty bullish.
BTC is at a pretty important level here.
We're once again flirting with 85, 86K, which was that previous region that we failed to break
out of after rejecting off of the yearly open.
Equities up like a percent today.
I think with equities, you really want to see us reclaim 5,800 with gusto with a ton
of volume too, as it would give some confluence for some of these on-chain tokens to go crazy.
Again, as we saw last year, the equity markets can rip to new all-time highs and majors could
essentially be within a range unless indices pump 10% plus off their previous high.
While equities are doing good, while things like gold do good, while majors consolidate,
you could see some beneficial price action
for upside volatility on on-chain markets and some newer centralized exchange tokens.
So look, oh man, I'm going to bring up Prometheus, man.
He deserves his flowers.
He told me about KTA on Wednesday. But yeah, I sold like my position though. Yesterday morning, it's come back
near the levels to where I sold. I think if you get like a 10x in this environment, a
5x, 6x, even 4x on something, it's beneficial to like take that risk out of the market and look for dips,
honestly, but Prometheus did a ton of research on this thing.
And I, it probably goes higher. There's a lot of fundamental catalysts,
but I don't want to turn this into a show space. More than anything,
I just want to have a group think discussion. So look,
we've got Prometheus chill and Donnie up here. We're
going to go ahead and do what we do best and talk markets with you guys. So before we officially
get started, thank you all so much for coming through once again. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
Before we get started, before we get started, guys, if you guys can do me one small tiny favor,
only takes a few moments of your time, takes very minimal effort.
If you guys can go ahead and open up the spaces tab,
once you open up the spaces tab,
you'll see a little link that says x.com slash I slash spaces.
If y'all can go ahead and smash up the like button,
retweet the space, helps out with the algorithm,
helps please our tech overlords,
and helps bring more eyes and ears
and awareness to the brand.
So spaces are recorded as always man.
And we're going to have a raw discussion, unbiased raw discussion
about all things markets.
So Donnie brother, welcome back.
I hope you inject me with some optimism brother.
This is the first time within this two month downtrend where we actually don't make lower
lows within seven days.
And I think this was a pretty important week for at the very least, at the very least,
a counter trend rally to new, not new all time highs,
but to range highs, right?
Which would be, I think like 93K, 94K,
the yearly open would be that range high.
And then after that, it's pretty much hot air
up until 99K, 100K, where we broke down in February.
So brother, thanks for coming on on man. How are you feeling?
And what do you digest about all this price action and everything that was said during
today's FOMC meeting?
Yeah, it's a pretty it's a pretty pivotal time in crypto right now. I'd say the next
like two to three months are going to be super critical about where we're heading. But ultimately, I'm leaning pretty bullish just because, you know, basically all of the stuff we've covered in the last
spaces just, you know, we kind of knew that the Fed was going to be waiting for, you know, April's economic data, because we know like with some of the real-time indicators and
stuff that you know this data is actually coming in pretty good and you
know they're waiting to see if Trump's tariffs are gonna affect their numbers
and like you know based off the meeting today they don't really seem too
concerned about that to be honest like they are unsure right they kept using
words like unsure and all this kind of stuff but overall the stance was like they they're they're they're they're feeling
pretty like mobile right they can pivot um on a whim if they need to basically that's what i
gauged from it and the setup right i made a post about this just before the setup right now is so similar to that
2023 October
Stock market bottom right it was literally on the 31st of October the SMP bottomed after a 10% correction and
BTC had actually started building an uptrend a little bit earlier than the stock market at that point
market at that point. But if you guys go back and watch that October meeting, you could interpret
But if you guys go back and watch that October meeting
that as more hawkish than the meeting that we just had right now. They were still talking,
this is while they were increasing rates to higher numbers. And at that meeting, they specifically
said, we're still open to hiking rates further, but we're more likely than not, like at the
top of the rates for this cycle, right?
But they were still like relatively hawkish overall.
They weren't mentioning ending QT.
They weren't mentioning anything to do with rate cuts or anything like that.
And the stock market bottom shortly after that, as data started to head in the right direction, right?
Which is what we're waiting for now.
And we know that it's more likely than not that this data is going to hit in the right direction.
Because of, you know, the recent pullbacks in the stock market,
trueflation showing good data, all this kind of stuff, right?
At that next meeting in 2023 in December, that's when they projected three rate cuts on their dot plot and their
tone shifted to potentially down the line looking at slowing down QT.
So QT was still in full effect at this point, but that's where the market really started
to like, well, leading up to this December date, the market already started front running, you know potential signs of a pivot
And then when they actually did say all of that at the December meeting, you know, we got the rally going into
uh 2024 and stuff
The setup is very similar right now, right? We literally just had the march meeting now, you know
we're only like 10 days away from uh, april, right so
only like 10 days away from April, right? So by it's like five to six weeks until
that May meeting where you know their tone seemed very open to you know doing
a hard pivot I would say around those months because you know we've been
saying how they've got three back-to-back meetings there to give them
that flexibility of okay, if data isn't
quite there yet in May, all good.
We'll check it in June.
So it has to be somewhere there.
Plus, we have the confluence of the US debt maturity wall.
Like in July, they would want to pivot before that to accommodate that debt rollover.
So April data comes out.
The market could already start pricing that in that the
May meeting is more likely going to be a pivot or very hard clarity that like, you know,
over summer we are going to pivot.
So no matter how you look at it with some deviation to the dates, it ends up, you know,
being bullish, right?
So I think that's why we're having a bit of a bounce today,
but I haven't had a chance to actually look at all the charts because I've just been mainly
watching that meeting because I'm from New Zealand, so when I wake up it's like 2 p.m. for you guys.
So yeah, I need to go back and check all the charts and stuff. But overall my stance on the Fed meeting today is like bullish, just push the
flagpole down six weeks. Nothing has actually changed. It's not bearish and the setup is good.
It's better than the 2023 setup in my opinion because you're waiting for a hard pivot into
essentially expanding the balance sheet over the next, let's say, four months, somewhere
in there.
Whereas in 2023, there was absolutely no pivot from quantitative tightening at all.
So it's a very pivotal moment.
So I like the setup.
I just think you just have to be a little bit more patient.
I think the main question now that's on everyone's mind is are the lows safe? Are the lows in?
And that's yet to be determined. So yeah, like I said, I need to go look at the charts
and come to some sort of conclusion and probably break down that FID meeting a little bit more,
like dissect that a little bit more to see are those lows safe or not. I would lean
more so that that 78k I think it was 76 500 low on BTC actually holds. However, I don't know if
the lows for altcoins are in yet just because there might be little hiccups or moments in April where
potentially BTC could revisit the low or close to the low, come up for a higher
low and maybe that chop might be, um, well, might put some alts, you know, at
lower lows, but it depends because, you know, with this like chop around here
with the tone of the fed potentially, you know, slight risk appetite might return to the old coin market to where they actually
start outperforming BTC a little bit on the upside and also on the downside.
Right.
So I think it's going to be case by case dependent on are the lows safe, but for
BTC, I'm leaning more at the moment without actually checking anything that,
you know, I would, I would say that that low is safe
So yeah, that's that's kind of everything on my end at the moment
Yeah, I'm looking at
BTC chart right now fam and if we close the daily here that could actually be like confirmation
that we actually flipped the monthly open which is pretty important man that
could be the start like at the very least a dude I don't want to say like
the start of higher lows and higher highs as I think the yearly open is the big boss, but I think
a rally just from here back to the yearly open could send some on-chain stuff pretty
high man, honestly.
Not to the same extent to what we saw in Q4 of last year, but I would say like a mean reversion balance for some of these things that have gotten absolutely
I've gotten absolutely decimated
I was yeah, i'm just on by bit right now, man. I'm gonna buy bit right now. I'm gonna add one thing
I forgot to mention
Is um the actual reduction in the balance sheet, right?
Because you know, we've been talking about like quantitative tightening. Oh my god. It sucks and all this kind of stuff
But and the sit-up setups pretty crazy right now.
Balance sheet has come down from nine trillion to about six point seven.
I'm on their balance sheet now, which actually comes back down to like
almost April of 2020 levels, right, where you had to jump from about.
I think the absolute bottom, but a more like mean
reverted bottom on the balance sheet
was around 4.1 trillion.
And that had to accommodate for COVID and you quickly jumped up to where we are now,
which is about like six and a half, let's say, and then ultimately peak that nine trillion,
you're back down to that like six and a half ish level to accommodate like, you know, essentially
when the pit when the Fed is going to pivot
here, which is like three, three trillion back to the all time high.
And you would think that they would go higher than that.
Right.
So, man, the setup is so good.
It's just a matter of time.
Yeah, it's not my question would be like, how long is it going to take for them to add
onto their balance sheet to be to beat those levels of where it was at when the market
had peaked in 21? It's going to take some time, I think, unless they go like full QE.
But dude, shout out to Mr. Spread. He was talking to us about Plum Network. That thing is up like almost 2X from when
he had called it out on our show on Monday. This is a centralized exchange token too.
It's not like some random share coin on chain. But dude, Donnie, man, this expansion of the balance sheet and all that stuff. It's something that like
people in the real world really don't even care. It's honestly crazy, right?
Like the the boomer mentality is like, the boomer mentality is so smooth compared
to people that are so in tune with crypto. All they do is they just fucking
buy the S&P and the Nasdaq
it's it must be a pretty nice life bro it must be a pretty nice life just to throw into indexes and
wait 20 30 years but i'm not trying to do that bro i'm not trying to wait 20 30 years to be frank
but um i think i think the younger generation is a little bit more has a little bit more risk appetite, I would say than
the older generation. Yeah. So like, you know, this is why
we're in this capital generating vehicle, bro, the most dangerous
one of all, but the highest upside.
Yeah. And I also feel like a lot of the market participants like
they're too, their, their ego is too high to actually take profits.
Like whenever you do a 10x on size or a 20x on size, there's always a possibility for them to be Psyop because they see some guy's chart on CT or on YouTube saying like, oh, don't worry, man, just hang on a little bit more and you'll be
up another 5X. And with crypto, it's like you have a ton of people that have never seen big money in
their lives. And so when they turn in, when they turn like 2K to half a mil, they think they're
geniuses when in reality, they're just beneficiaries of a bull market. And I think when someone gets something for nothing and then they first have that big
drawdown at that point, they have a pretty big decision to make.
Either you walk away and say,
hey, I can't take this volatility,
the market's a scam,
or they think to themselves,
damn, I think I've actually found an opportunity
within these markets to become better,
to stick around and see what other opportunities
come into the market, right?
We saw that big downturn in Q3 of last year,
and then within the next quarter or two, we were at
new all-time highs. If people got wiped on pump fun stuff in the summer of last year, some other
shitcoins, if they stuck around, they had opportunities with an AI. But I think something
that I would tell people if they're new to crypto,
and they make their first 10X on a few grand,
take half of that money, man.
Take half of that money and pay yourself.
And actually try to realize it
because 10 bands on a Metamask is way different
than having 10 bands in your bank account.
Way different.
And I feel like I'm not sure why this this weird part of crypto
on Twitter loves loves loves loves loves talking about like,
oh, dude, we're going to make 10 X 20 X gains.
We're going to make so much profits.
But when the time actually comes to sell and they call you a G they say
like what's wrong with you like you're an idiot don't you see everything that's
panning out before us and it's like dude a 10x a 20x a 30x is still a 10x 20x
30x regardless if XYZ hasn't happened yet, regardless if your token hasn't hit this magical
market cap of tens of billions or billions, right?
Taking profits is so important, Donnie, because the market doesn't owe us anything.
And we've seen that in this quarter, right?
Back in early December, when BTC hit like 100,000 for the first time,
everyone and their mother, including myself, was talking about, oh dude, Q1 is going to be awesome,
Q1 is going to be great, you know, it's going to be absolutely rip roaring. And then Trump comes out,
releases his token and absolutely shrecks the market.
Absolutely strikes the market
Bro, you know looking back at that right we had like a big
Contraction and global liquidity, right and then you had Trump's token extract
Whatever remaining liquidity there was on chain like that is like a double whammy that just destroyed everything man
It has to be done by design a just like looking back because that was the timing was just insane
Real quick
Just going back to what you were just saying lobby about like taking profits and everything. I read something
On Twitter that really resonated with me if
Everyone kind of there are some people that kind of think about crypto is like, you know
This game that you play right and if you have that kind of mindset on it
Think of taking profits as you saving your progress in the game, you know
Like you get to a certain checkpoint and you save yeah, that's yep. That's what uh, that's what him
Yeah, he is he is him, bro.
Yeah, him, I put it up on the nest. Him, Gaji Ria.
Probably among the top three of new accounts
from this cycle that grew a large following. And talking about
seasonality and all that stuff and timing, I put it up on the nest.
Sell on main, walk away. Quote it up on the nest. Sell and main, walk away quote-unquote. Lesson as an investor, time
sensitivity is a weakness. Whenever you expect something to happen and
you're just waiting on it and you're waiting to capitalize on historically
bullish or bearish periods, Sometimes the market says screw you
and does a completely different thing, man.
But I know what you're referencing, Chill,
and I'll put it up on the nest as well.
Not to glaze him or anything like that, but like.
Game is game, bro.
I'm sorry, but he's been like doling out banger Calls and tweets from the time. I started following him in October of last year
So you just got to give credit where credit is due whether people want to label it glazing or not is on them
But man like I'm really loving just looking at you know markets I posted a tweet
I think it was like two days ago, where I said I felt
like on chain, we kind of turned a corner. And I felt like we got kind of what we needed
out of the Fed today just from a sentiment, emotional standpoint. I feel like a lot of
people are, they have that expectation of markets are forward looking, right? So they
have that expectation of, okay, well, they're slowing down.
That means they're gonna come to a stop eventually.
That means QE is coming eventually.
So markets are starting to kind of open up
to more optimistic outcomes here in the months ahead.
Now, I'm still a little bit cautious moving forward.
Like, I still wanna see see us flip that 92k level on Bitcoin before
I really, really get overly optimistic. But as of right now, I do think that the market
is due for a relief rally. I've been saying that these last a couple days last week or so I feel like we were due for relief for some relief a lot of people just have you know to bearish
of targets on Bitcoin and then last thing I'll say as well is
With this relief rally. I'm expecting us to reject off the 92k level and then you know we go to really test
the old all-time high.
And then we kind of do our thing because to me it doesn't seem like we've, it seems like
we're still kind of stuck in this range.
We haven't really formed a really clean bottom yet.
So I'm still expecting that.
Plus you still have Trump that he's kind of holding a lid on markets
So I'm not convinced that we have what we need to break 92 K
But I think we have what we need to get there and then you know
This will kind of open up a window at least what I'm what I'm seeing is it'll open up a window on chain
window on chain for a brief period where, you know, gains come pretty, pretty easily.
for a brief
And we were already seeing that on Solana. There's a tweet coming out from from my side
here pretty, pretty soon where, you know, some of the tickers I mentioned just a few
days ago are up, you know, some are up 300 400%. And it just you kind of feel that the
vibes have shifted a bit
So I think we got what we needed from the from the Fed today man a shout out to pow
Yeah
Yeah within the discord there's a
Been a few names in the AI channel that have actually ran up pretty smoothly instead of like
pretty smoothly instead of like these pumps that only last for two days and go minus 90%
These pumps that only last for two days and go minus 90%
they're actually in these pretty nice clean rallies man but I'll go ahead and mention
this tweet we're talking about like saving your progress in a bull market right so this
is from him gajiriya and you want to follow people that actually speak about risk management, right? Anybody is a hero in a bull market.
Bro, everybody was a genius in Q4 if you played AI,
if you were on base,
everyone is a genius in a bull market, right?
Just from being active in a bull market,
you're a beneficiary of clean upside
with doing very minimal thinking, right?
But anyways, I'm gonna go ahead and read this tweet from him. Gajaria, right?
Bull market equals easy mode bear market equals hard mode.
The good thing about this game is that you don't have to play it
all the time.
Playing easy mode.
Save the game before hard mode starts.
Log off log back in before before.
Sorry, save the game before hard mode
starts log off log back in before easy mode starts you'll beat most players by
doing nothing while they're fighting their boss battles in hard mode and
round tripping all their progress without any checkpoints when you feel
that you're losing your edge log off come back when you're no longer complacent
If you truly love the game your complacency will turn into guilt and that'll feed your hunger
playing the game without your edge is just playing the game handicapped and
A lot of people they just borrow conviction right and that's like the biggest
Disrespect that you can do to yourself in this market borrowing conviction Borrow conviction, right? And that's like the biggest disrespect
that you can do to yourself in this market.
Borrowing conviction,
because you're essentially telling yourself
that I'm not mad enough to go out and do my own research
and be confident with what I do with my own money, right?
Risk management is key.
As much as you wanna follow bulls,
as much as you wanna follow up only charts
and all that stuff,
you wanna follow people that preach endlessly about risk management.
But either way Prometheus you have your hand up man.
What's up brother?
And once again dude props for your call on KTA on Keta.
For those that don't know Prometheus joined the because Bitcoin deem
a couple of weeks ago and within his first month called out a 10 banger, man called out
a 10 banger. What a way, what a way to come into the team, man. What's going on, brother?
Great to have you on.
Yeah. I appreciate you having me up, man. I mean, that thing's been an absolute freaking cooker. Yeah. If
you haven't checked that ticker out, I highly recommend you guys check it out and you know,
build your own thesis on in conviction, KTA. The thing is just freaking nuts. And if the
team proves out, I mean, it's going to make most other, it's going to make basically everything
else look archaic but with
that being said definitely want to just kind of go into broader markets because
that's what we're here to talk about right yeah man I think today has been
decently constructive I talked about this in the afternoon call and because
Bitcoin discord but you definitely have better risk to return at this point to the upside,
even if it's only just complacency shoulder. And I do want to preface that the majors have
a lot of work to do across the board. Like I'm not, I'm not taking a victory lap here,
but I, I have been calling for some form of bounce. And a lot of people are expecting, including me,
like I'm still on the fence on whether or not
Bitcoin goes back to like 72 to 74K,
which is what I was looking for,
but we are seeing across the board
some like gnarly mean reversion and alts.
And the AI tickers have been doing pretty well because they have recency bias, just
like what we saw with memes at the end of last year where we had memes go ballistic
at the beginning of January, beginning of 2024.
Then we had our big cool off in the summer where basically everything went sideways. And when we had our next big
leg up, what went, what went up immediately, basically immediately after, in October and
November was memes again, because that's what's fresh on everybody's minds. And then, you know, you really saw AI spin up and the whole AI trade go freaking crazy.
I think we're gonna have something similar to where you see AI tickers do well, but I
don't think they necessarily do as well as what they did at the end of last year. And we probably see a
rotation from Solana to base is what I've been calling. And you start to see a lot of RWAs really
pick up some steam here, especially with the institutional involvement that we've been seeing
across the space. And you're not going to see, in my opinion, another leg up where RWAs get left behind.
It's very apparent that a lot of names across the board
are trying to find ways to integrate
a lot of these projects into current institutional
structures.
So as we move forward, it's kind of like,
keep your eyes out on some of these names
that could potentially get integrated as we move forward.
But with that being said, I do think that some sectors
are still going to struggle, right?
You have to understand that the crypto market participant
and how the liquidity behaves within the markets
is very reflexive and it's very emotional
and it's very, it's very short-sighted in a way.
And what I mean by that is if a market participant
in the majority of liquidity in the market
just got burnt somewhere, i.e. sole,
you think they're gonna run back to sole, really.
You think that we're going to have the GOAT era
and the AI16Z era where you had a select,
you know, a smaller, let's just say share
of the overall liquidity do very well
compared to what we've seen in previous legs up.
Where if you talk to most people
and their experiences on sole,
a lot of people got caught bag holding,
they got caught chasing, and you don't necessarily
from what I've seen in my own personal experience
from majority of people, that it's not,
soul is not an enjoyable experience.
And I think that's something to study,
especially as we move forward,
but a lot of that liquidity still has the dopamine
addicted mentality and
still has that kind of casino gambling infatuation. And so where are they going to run? I think they're
really going to run to base. So I've been kind of keeping my eyes on base. And I think you're going
to find out too, just how hard base is going to run when Coinbase starts to really list more and
more and more and more shitters and they're pushing their customers towards
base like that's what they're doing they're integrating into their smart
wallet they're making it more accessible and they want to and how are they
wanting to get their customers exposure to on chain they're gonna do that
through base and they're gonna integrate to get their customers exposure to on chain? They're going to do that through base and they're going to integrate into all their platforms. They're already
doing it. But it's been kind of a blast. I think that broader markets too in the short
term, I called this in the because Bitcoin discord and you got to like the broader markets in my opinion are bottomed.
Like unless barring that Trump doesn't blow something up, and if he could, you know, excuse
my language, shut his mouth up for like more than 72 hours, then broader markets are probably
bottomed and you probably see this over positioning to the downside
and all these late shorts and these late hedges
that got put on, you see that position probably start
to unwind and subsequently what happens is it adds fuel
to the fire for any upside momentum that we may see, right?
You saw us come into the beginning of the year
with almost perfect expectations
in regards to growth and earnings.
And the market then through the tariff announcements
and other announcements had kind of realized,
hey, we got to kind of adjust here.
We're probably expecting greener pastures
than what we're gonna to actually see. And
over the last, you know, two weeks, you saw everybody piling into shorts, piling in edges,
everybody's long vol, yada, yada, yada. And what vol is, is it's a mean reverting, it's
mean reverting in its nature. And so what we're going to probably see and what I'm expecting is compression of volatility over the next minimum six months.
I don't think you see an expansion of volatility across the board.
And even though we see compression of volatility and potentially equities grind higher, that
doesn't necessarily mean that crypto fall is just like what we've seen over the past.
Crypto could very well still chop sideways and you know we could see that 72 to 74k lows who knows
but I like I said I am leaning that the lows are probably already in and the sticky point for Bitcoin
just like I think chill had mentioned was like 92k that's what I'm watching for I'm watching 90 to
93k you need to see his punch through that level
You need to see a strong weekly close up there. You need to see
The markets show that it has a willingness to bid right?
Do like the rhetoric from pal. I do like the stance that we're going to enter into an ease ease
You know an easing of monetary conditions and an easing of monetary environment.
I believe that that is going to be very stimulative in nature for a lot of mid caps and low caps.
You're going to see the IWM very well.
We all understand the correlation between the IWM and BTC. But inherently, there does need to be further incentive for the altcoin
space and for RWAs, not for RWAs, but for altcoin space in general. And where do I think that comes
from? I think that comes from a lot of adoption by institutional players
and from the involvement of the current financial system
on integration.
I think you're really gonna see that.
And when I think that narrative is gonna spin up,
I don't know when I think that's gonna hit the timeline.
I don't know, but I do believe it's gonna happen this year.
And it's going to probably create a feeding frenzy in the altcoin
sector like nobody has ever seen before. You're going to see a complete shift of
liquidity structure from what we've seen the cycle to where everybody's wanting
to you know get ahead of the game and just bid alts and then there's no you
know supportive flows behind that because everybody piles in at one time to altcoins where that's why
we've seen BTC do very well is because the institutional bid has been so strong and it's
been so consistent.
And I think we get that in altcoins to where we get a consistent bid, we get consistent
liquidity and you start to see a feeding frenzy, like I said, across the board for everybody
just trying to find like that next big thing.
And like I've said, and I called it out,
I called KTA out a long time ago,
I dug into it, the team's freaking legit.
And if they execute, they are going to make like Solana,
Ethereum, a lot of big names in the space
look really, really archaic, and they're going
to change the nature and the ideology of what a blockchain really is, right?
It's going to be really fascinating if they can execute.
I'm really excited for them.
And I'm really excited for what this space has and what it's supposed to hold, or what
it can hold over the next few months. There's a lot of
promise. We're seeing us head in the right direction. And I'm
excited. I'm glad we saw what we did today. The rhetoric was
great. He came out purple tie and all. And he answered a lot
of questions like Donnie said that they can pivot on a dime,
if they need to, but they're headed in the right direction.
They're still on track.
You know, it'd be outstanding if they actually threaded the needle, you know, and made it
work.
That would be kind of incredible, right?
But I think from a hiking perspective, a lot of people are expecting us to, or from a cutting
perspective, people are expecting us to cut at right in line with what we've been doing.
I think that potentially the cuts come a little bit slower than what may be expected currently.
And we probably see the cutting schedule increase in velocity and veracity from what I've been saying
just like what we saw with the hiking cycle where they said they first came out and they're like oh
we're only going to raise to you know 125 basis points and we ended up at 525 or whatever it was
you know where now they're like oh we'll cut 25 basis points and you know we'll use our way into
it I think that the long bond trade is going to chop people up into little bits and keep
going sideways for a lot longer than people would expect.
And you're going to see that long bond trade go crazy, but it's going to really, really
test the patience of a lot of people in the markets.
But that being said, I touched on a lot. I'll pass it on over to somebody else.
Now I got I gotta say Prometheus, I agree with pretty much the bulk of what you said. The only
thing that I'm kind of wishy washy on is you mentioned that kind of, you know, a lot of people are kind
of tired of Solana.
Solana may retain some of those dopamine gamblers and maybe they'll continue hunting or looking
for things to bid, but bases, you know, where a lot of the potential is.
I do agree with that to some extent,
but I would say that Solana has,
at least the collapse of the meme economy over there
has really, I believe, opened a lot of eyes
to some of the market participants over there,
whether they wanna call themselves on-chain traders
or de-gens or what have you.
But I do believe there is a lot of people have, in some sense, learned a lesson essentially
from the market, the way things have played out here in Q1.
A lot of people got decimated by being 100% allocated to memes.
A lot of people have blown themselves out and I think the
market has learned and now is looking for quality. And we see that by this week, the
first things to pump after seeing some level of positivity from the Fed and just from markets overall, the first things to
pump are things that are more utility focused, things that are more, I don't really see
memes catching that much of a bid at all.
I haven't really, I think the only thing probably was Fartcoin, but I haven't really seen anything else. But I do believe that, you know, for
anyone like me who really loves just being on chain, I still say Solana is a really good
place to be. I definitely do feel like base is as well. But I just haven't seen enough
to be convinced that, you know, a full on, full on, kind of on chain risk on season
has started there just yet.
I mean, KTA, by the way, appreciate the call.
I was a little late on the entry, but still loving the gains on that.
Hopefully that kind of ignites some activity over there
but that's typically what we see from base you know like one or two kind of
bigger runners but not really a chain wide you know surge in activity just
more so you know a few plays here or there that may show some promise but I
mean overall man I really appreciate your analysis. And I agree with
a lot of what you're saying. But I think that overall, a lot of us have learned, you know,
many different things from the market. I know, for sure, I have, you know, over the last
quarter. And, you know, I would say that my perspective, my approach, and my mental framework has probably, what
would have taken two to three or four years of trading in markets worth of lessons, I
think I've learned in one quarter, I would say.
It's my first cycle. It's my, you know, I, I have done well in this market, but I'm still
learning to manage what I manage.
You know, essentially I was not, you know, you know, big finance guy or,
you know, asset allocator or anything like that before, before crypto.
So, you know, I'm still, still learning as time goes on, but I really do feel like,
you know, in how I'm learning, I feel like a lot of others around me are learning similar
things. And so the general consensus that I see is that, you know, the market has taught
many people lessons and specifically the biggest lesson would be in the types of assets that
they're, you know, just, you're just full porting into, essentially.
I'm happy to see that the market is healing.
I really can't wait to see what May, June, and potentially even beyond that in 2026.
Can't wait to see what all of that
What all of that has for us? But I'm really happy to see where markets are going man and just happy that I get to learn from this
market every single day
And then you know piles of term finishes next May
He's a legend dude Jerome Powell leaves office next to me. I gotta say, as much crap as Jerome has to put up with, he's actually done a really good job. I don't think he gets credit for it.
Yeah, yeah. I know he says he wants to be like Volker, man. It's a shame we won't see him be the one that ignites
the money printer again. And when that money printer actually does turn on, I think a lot of
people are going to regret it soon after the fact because you're going to have another inflation
cycle and that's going to hurt the average person a lot more than COVID did. It's when the Fed, anytime they do QE,
it's like the average consumer is about to pay
two to three times the amount of the price for goods
within the next few years.
The stock market is up 2X over the last five years, man.
Like when you have that sort of stuff happen,
the price of goods just goes up egregiously
and wages are probably not going to catch up
to that probably ever dude, but
Yo, um, josh, what's up, man? How are you?
Yo, i'm driving is the audio good here?
Yeah, you're straight man, what's going on? It's uh doing good man. It's good to hear from you guys again. It's been uh,
Good day just got done streaming for six hours the whole fomc man. It's good to hear from you guys again. It's been a good day
Just got done streaming for six hours the whole FOMC meeting. It was
Absolutely beautiful. I was hoping Joe was gonna be on the panel so I can pour us a
Good old whiskey and cheers over the the dovishness. I think came out of that. It was exactly as expected
You know guys the the drones pals direct words were you know they're landing
the plane of what is quantitative tightening. You know they're getting ready to make that
that shift and even though they weren't giving out you know broad signals or even vague signals
on them looking to pivot those June reports that we've been so adamant on are looking
to really take place here which means bears, really anybody that's really negative
on these markets here, like Tim Waltz, you know, betting on the downfall of one of the
top 10 American companies, your bottoms, you know, your targets need to hit really within
the next month, if not sooner, I would honestly even give you maybe till the next April CPI
data because gas prices are down week over week for four consecutive weeks egg prices
Garos user started to draw back pretty extensively
Which means we're probably about to get another round of pretty decent economic reports coming from the inflation aspect
the only thing that people I think are uncertain on are going to be the jobs reports, but
Another takeaway. Nobody's covering on the media as a clip. I'm trying to I got a farm it and post it later tonight
but was when Jerome Powell kind of scuffed
off the Doge layoffs.
He literally said it's pretty much a regional-based issue that's more individualistic, and that's
going to drive certain surveys based off certain regions, but on a national scale.
He doesn't expect that to necessarily have a massive macro impact on the overall labor conditions.
So you're looking at liquidity starting to enter back into these markets here in the
next, I would say, two to three months at the most.
And that gives you a very short timeline on accumulation.
So I think anybody that has been dollar costs averaging under 80k Bitcoin, I mean, you guys
are seeing it, you guys are already up now, but not saying that we can't go back down
to 77k.
But the case for bearishness is becoming harder and harder unless Trump comes out of left
field with some crazy fiscal policy people are unaware of.
And you know, I think that everybody almost on this panel, I'm sure at this point, you
know, realizes the terror conversation can't get too much worse.
It really can only get better.
It's pretty much factored into the markets right now.
Again, it's not causing any short-term inflation.
There are long ends on a two to five year timeframe.
It is causing short-term inflation.
Sorry, let me rephrase that.
It's starting very immediate,
causing very immediate short-term stuff.
But the long end of this looks pretty good.
And even Powell today was using tariffs on washing machines and different case studies
that made them confident in their rate decisions.
So we know that the feds are in a very strong position.
They're definitely not going to add the QT, which means only going to reduce it further
and further. And you can expect that to be completely ended in
May. I'm still on June. We need more data points before we can say they're going to
do it in May. But man, it's exciting, Wabi. It's looking good. I think the, it was getting
rough out there. I think everybody was starting to panic a little bit and sweat over the data
points that were coming out. You know, all these recessionary fears, tariffs, mass layoffs, and it turns out that, you know, they just,
again, the media kind of fear-mongered the audience into capitulating, and
that's kind of the biggest worry here. I think your max pain's pretty much over.
Now I'm watching this whale shorten along the market with like 30 million
dollars, and I'm jealous.
So that's kind of where I stand right now.
I don't know what you guys have covered completely today so I don't want to be repetitive but
I'm extremely excited for these market conditions.
I think everybody should be, even the SPX, SPX, the VU, the VIM, you eat...
On sorry I got a phone call there.
You should really be looking at dollar cost averaging those blue chips you know I came in a little bit into the latter half of that last conversation on meme coins.
You know I think base aero drums actually a project we've been really really watching it's a it's incredibly oversold and it's at a price range towards where.
Coinbase ventures was accumulating at 45 cents. And so, you know, maybe we go back down to 45 cents on Aerodrome.
But I think if you're, you know, picking up some of those decks is,
there's some decent opportunities made there on the swing side.
If you guys are looking for pretty decent trades moving into the summer months
for meme coins, though, guys, I think, you know, I agree and I disagree
on some fronts here.
I think people would love to not see meme coins come back.
But meme coins are emotional and emotions
always come back with more money.
And so as soon as the consumer sentiment turns around and there's money back in the hands
of these people, Vegas is going to take off.
Your Aiden Rosses, your FaZe Banks, they're going to come back with new meme coins, play
the market trend again.
They might be a little bit different of meme coins this time, but I don't see Solana kind
of disappearing.
I think you're going to see huge volume just come back once again, once that starts to
happen, that's just what whales tend to do.
But if you're playing those risk sides, I'd say be cautious on that.
Right now, it's like cautious optimism is good.
Dollar cost averaging those blue chips and the ones that you know are going to be here
for the long term.
In my opinion, I think that's real world assets tokenization.
We've been huge fans of those. I mean, Plume's absolutely crushing it right
now that we got literally the bottom of that.
Ondo, I think these are going to be platforms that just crush it through this new administration.
And now tomorrow, I don't know if you guys saw that. I'm sure you guys covered it already.
You guys cover everything. But Donald Trump will be speaking in regards to some announcements.
I've made some calls to constituents that I know that are pretty well connected.
And along the lines with the Digital Asset Committee, it seems like it's going to be
something around a purchasable approach to Bitcoin within the U.S., whether or not that's
a bill and it's actually getting pushed through.
We don't know the extent of that, but that is also going to be, again, really, really
bullish for crypto as a whole.
So yeah, I think we're on the come out of this ugly bear market, Wobby, and that's
kind of where I'm sitting right now.
The only meme coin that I'm personally bullish on for high caps is probably Forecoin.
I think everything else is already extracted.
Yeah, everything else is already extracted.
I'm only speaking for myself, man.
And I don't have some handcuffs
where I can't say certain things,
but everything else has already fulfilled
its narrative, honestly.
Whiff had the sphere, Pepe had the fucking Robin Hood listing, and
yeah, if I was clear, I think it's gonna be new memories. I don't know if these old ones,
I agree with you on that point. Yeah, it's trying to get the thing is Josh, like when
you have stuff that has already had multiple rallies, right, to new highs, and a lot of that money
is extracted. It takes a while for that money to come back, and a lot of that money that
comes back, it's probably going to get, it's probably going to be new money. And new money
is now introduced via apps like Moonshot, right? Like, if you think retail money is
going to come back, you want to look at Moonshot.
This is stuff that I've been saying for months and months.
Moonshot had a private vow of like three mil in the summer of last year.
And now they had an acquisition that was in like the mid nine figure range.
That is a huge acquisition.
That's like what Celsius and all that other crap that went to zero last cycle, right?
It's it's sort of the same barometer except moonshot doesn't really it's it's not a yield product
right like some of those other platforms, but it's still a
Gauge of how you can see retail money coming in stable coins coming to the market is not indicative of
Stablecoins coming to the market is not indicative of like some dude working a 20-hour job, saving
three to six months of expenses, and then pouring it into crypto.
Stablecoins, for the most part, are usually large entities, and they've just been parking
it to earn yield.
They're not buying your altcoin right and I think even on this next leg up like it's it
should be prudent for people to manage their risk on expectations because as
you said Josh right like it's probably gonna be new altcoins that steal the
limelight this cycle more than anything has been extremely diluted and there's a
lot there's too much supply overhang for some of these altcoins to actually
make substantial higher highs than their previous peaks.
A lot of these assets actually formed double tops or barely broke their all-time highs.
Even with Seoul, Seoul first broke its all-time high in late November, it hit like 270.
And then in January, amidst the Trump coin, all that other crap, it barely broke it.
It went to like 295 and that was it.
So if something like Seoul, which was a no brain buy, right, for new people, barely hit
an all-time high, like what is your all coin that's already gone through multiple mini bull cycles going
to do on this next leg up whenever it comes, whether it's this quarter or in Q4 or in Q3,
what have you?
That's kind of what I'm thinking to myself, right?
The risk to reward of like bag holders dumping on me because they want to escape at break
even, right?
It's been a tough market, man.
It really has. it really has it really has like if you bought
Some random all coin that was the flavor of the quarter or whatever and you walked away for six months
it's probably down like 90% or
even worse, right it's been bleeding against Bitcoin and
That is something that people should honestly look at. You want
to look at your altcoin against BTC across all timeframes. Gosh, what a Chad, dude. BTC
can look still good on higher timeframe, but alt can tell you a completely different story.
That's why like, and I'll pass the mic over to Joe and then we'll hear from Ragsy.
Whenever people say, oh dude, like, why are you so cautious? BTC looks good. And it's like,
because most majors, right, that have given signal are being crushed, right? They're in a completely different trend than BTC. But I do think this FOMC meeting or
whatever has exhausted a lot of the, or rather has confirmed a lot of the bearish trend to kind
of relax for a little bit and should give us continued rallies on some of these tokens.
continued rallies on some of these tokens.
Like Farcoin going to like 50 cents, 60 cents
or something like that.
It's up like well over two X off the low.
And it was something that was actually trending
on national TV back in like early December
when it was trading at like 15 cents
and it pulled out a pretty huge rally.
But Farcoin is the only thing where I can confidently say where like if you're bullish on
memes, it's probably going to be some crap like Farcoin to be frank. It doesn't have a team. It's
not reliant on anything. It's not reliant on anything at all. It's just the freaking name.
On anything it's not reliant on anything at all. It's just the frickin name and it sounds funny, but
Chill what's up, man?
Yeah, no, I was I was gonna say the the exact the exact same thing just in regards to memes
Overall, I think there's still gonna be some opportunity there are tons of opportunity
But just to get kind of exposure to the whole
Solana mean
Ecosystem at this point would be like the perfect picture of that is the fart coin chart
I mean, you know the full-on I mean what how far down this fart coin at this point like 80
90% yeah, like 90
it was 85% now, but it was like 92% at the ultimate bottom.
But I feel like that's the full picture of the entire Solana ecosystem.
And it's several X's away from all time high.
And I feel like it's been in this kind of accumulation range between 20 and like 40
cents, roughly. And it looks like it's been in this kind of accumulation range between 20 and like 40 cents roughly.
And it looks like it's going to break out. It looks really good. But ultimately, I really
do feel like the biggest lesson this has kind of taught me, this market has taught me, going
back to what you were saying about just sitting on your bag for six months, throw out the old
kind of mindset of, hey, I'm just going to put money in this altcoin and just wait.
There are certain long-term investments that you can do that with.
But when you get outside of the top, I don't know, let's say top 20, top 50, even then it gets
a little bit risky with a time horizon longer than eight to 10 months when you think about
outperforming the market.
You can let your money sit there and perhaps it'll just range, perhaps it'll pump a little
bit.
But when you think of outperforming Bitcoin, the best thing to be, going back
to the pinned tweet up top, is being involved in easy mode and then just not over trading
in hard mode.
The best way to do that, in my personal opinion, is to position yourself during hard mode. Honestly coming out like hard mode this last you
know this honestly all of Q1 basically it although it was hard from a trading
standpoint from in terms of positioning you were able to see very
my bad homie my bad that was my bad No, you're good. You're good. It was very easy to see which tokens would come back and which would just kind of fall to oblivion.
I mean, it's no different than in the full-on bear market after, from the bear market lows in 2022, it was really obvious which you know, which teams were actively still building,
you know, still continuing continuing to push. And then ultimately went on to, you know,
make new highs and outperform the market. When you know, when volume and sentiment flipped
and you know, everyone came back into the market, it was very easy to see, you know,
which teams are very serious, and which teams were just here
for the short term quick flip.
And so in these kind of hard mode times,
it's very important to just look and see
what has the potential, which teams are still active.
And viewed in my eyes,
the way I'm looking at the market now,
I'm viewing everything as a trade
Everything is a trade like on on a certain time horizon a lot of these things
And this is something we've known all along
Like 95% of the space is just pure garbage a lot of these things don't even need tokens
And so on a certain time horizon it gets more risky to hold to hold. And then when you treat it with the appropriate, when you respect the market, you respect the
fact that things not only can go up ridiculously, but they can go down ridiculously, you actually
give yourself a much better chance.
And then when things are down, you're You know teams that are continuing to build things that are continuing to hold attention like fart coin for example a lot of
big money a lot of VCs were just hey, you know, they just
Unfortunately, they hated on fart coin. They were they loved that it dropped 90 plus percent
But I think far coin will be one of those most hated rallies and the fact that it's still had
But I think fart coin will be one of those most hated rallies
Yeah, children not interrupt you man, but don't you think that?
Some some VCs especially like people that are more on the liquid side
We're actually ones that bid up a lot of these tokens if you look at like
projects that are quote-unquote fundamentals and all that stuff
After q1 of last year, they've just been bleeding against majors projects that are quote-unquote fundamentals and all that stuff.
After Q1 of last year, they've just been bleeding against majors.
Or a lot of these on-chain tokens, they went to billions.
I find it really hard for me to see stuff like AIXBT or virtuals or I think I said AI16Z, I said AI16C, AIXBT and all other crap going to the billions without
these VC venture funds actually buying into these tokens. I find it really hard to believe
that like regular retail that is come in with three to six months or a year's worth of savings were the ones that
like pumped these charts to that degree, right? Or even something like like Pepe, for example,
right? I do not believe for a single second that like something that went to 13 Bill was
purely because of average people all piling in. I just I just do not, I find it really hard to believe in.
Yeah, there's probably some optics involved in that, right?
But when I look, no matter how it reached those heights,
it reached those heights.
And Fartcoin to this day is still one of the top,
top mindshare of the sector.
And the fact that it retained know, top mindshare of the sector. And the fact that it retained
that level of mindshare, even at the lows, it was, to me, it was very strong signal that
pointed to, okay, this thing that might actually stick around. And in some cases, the most,
you know, the funniest outcome is probably the most likely so the funniest outcome would be these VCs perhaps
Perhaps they did buy-in perhaps they tried to
You know perhaps they did dump at the top and now they're they're just kind of hating on it
While it's at the lows, but the funniest outcome would be that it not only reached the highs
But it exceeded it you know in a full kind of bull mania.
Think of the Solana ecosystem.
Think of the little kid that dumped, the little kid that streamed on PumpFund, dumped on everyone.
They sent his token like 10 or 50x past the point where he sold he sold and that taught him a lesson
Right, and I'm pretty sure the way I'm looking at it I feel as though this market will teach these VCs the same lesson if you did buy if you did buy it up
And you you pumped it up to these high levels you dumped it down to the lows and now you're you know casting it aside
I think the market the fact that it's are retains that high mindshare
I think the market will end up teaching them a lesson to say hey look. I mean this thing is still relevant
It's still funny the fact that you know
It was on you know SNL, you know had you know was on it was on you know the finance news
There was a lot of mind share outside of crypto that it that it was able to garner So I do feel that you know, the Haiti rally will probably continue and I think that would be a signal not only
That wouldn't that would blow well not only for fart coin itself
But it would be a good signal for betas like, you know, probably like base fart coin on base
But then overall just kind of the the the Solana meme ecosystem it
will be a kind of a beacon to say we're still here it might not be the same as
it was before but you know it still has that that potential obviously there's
the the disclaimers you know managing your risk and not dumping your whole
portfolio into these things but you know I think it still does have a place in
this market and I think Far coin would would be the the asset to you know to
exemplify that.
Is Prometheus off mute? Prometheus if you want to say something go ahead man you don't have to
raise your hand or anything. I don't think he's a speaker. Oh, well, dang, it shows that he's a so
shows it for me, too.
I'm mine. Yeah.
I'll pass it over to Ragsy now.
Ragsy, what's up?
Hi. How are you?
I thanks for strolling in my tick tock.
I hope you had fun yesterday.
Yeah, you have a pretty you have a pretty large you have a
pretty large platform like 200k followers. That's that's
that's incredible.
Wow. Yeah, I just started using TikTok like two days ago just
just for fun, honestly honestly but what's up?
Yeah yeah I love TikTok it's definitely a different it definitely operates differently
than Twitter and YouTube but I definitely love it. Yeah I love the conversation definitely been
preparing for potential altcoin season.
In my opinion, like I was listening to like the meme coin conversation.
I kind of like disagree with a lot of some of the things that were said. And then I agree with other things that were said.
Like, I do think like the AI meme era was like,
was like a gold rush and that was a thing.
And I think it's going to be very hard for that to be exciting
again, in terms of like, you know,
AI related memes on Solana.
But Solana in the meme economy is definitely not cooked
because you have to remember like who likes to buy memes
the most is newbies in retail.
And obviously on TikTok, it most is newbies in retail. And obviously on TikTok,
it's mostly newbies in retail. And I mean, I just don't see the the Solana meme coin show
ending anytime soon. I don't even see it ending when the bull run is over. I mean, people are
still even doing it now they're doing it every day., you know, because it's Solana is very casino-y and deploys like so many low caps a day, I
just don't think it's it's gonna go away. That being said, like, memes that we're fortunate
enough to go very high in market cap, like 100 mill or over. Some of those I do believe
have hit their all time high and I don't think they're going to see those again. But there are a handful of others that I do feel are not done yet, are still relevant,
are going to continue to be relevant in the cycle. And then, oh also when you're talking about like
Pepe, I don't think Pepe is done at all. I think that Pepe, yes, it got the Robinson listing, but you have to remember that he's
been underperforming this cycle, right?
So it's contingent on, like for me personally, I'm still bullish on Ethereum.
So if you weren't bullish on Ethereum, it would make sense that you wouldn't really
be interested in those types of memes, right?
But the underlying factor is Ethereum hasn't really had a huge breakout yet.
And I feel like when that happens, you still have a run from Pepe and Pepe related memes.
I know Max likes Andy and Wolf, I like Brett, right?
And that's because I still see like, ETH whales are using, you know, Pepe and other ETH memes
is like a beta to Ethereum, they'd rather hold the memes because they know they're going to get more X's with the memes regardless if they're
more risky or not. And the benefit of the ETH meme, like something like Pepe that has
like every exchange listing, it's almost viewed as like a safer place for, you know, an ETH
beta because it has all the exchange listing so it's
less likely to go to zero or something crazy happened right because it had to
be vetted they have to meet very strict guidelines so I don't really think it's
over for for the top ETH memes I think they haven't even really had a chance to
break out yet so I think people are gonna be very surprised if Ethereum does
have run past this it's all-time, how high some of these ETH memes and especially base are
going to actually like explode. Like even when I was trading them back like early 2024,
when ETH kind of like started to run, it was over like000. The ETH memes were like it was so easy to hit
like memes on Ethereum and base it was you know and I was there the whole step of the
way when base means were first like a thing in February I mean you could have bought any
meme and it was going up it was like insane. So if ETH has that run I think people are
going to be very surprised at how strong some
of these Ethereum means are going to run.
And in regards to Solana, I just don't think Solana can be cooked, but because of the low
cap memes being deployed every day, people still trade them.
I'm one of them.
Obviously, like when the market rallies, it's a lot easier to hit like, you know, crazy amount of X's
like a 10 X, 20 X, 30 X a day. But people are still trading in the trenches and I'm
still seeing people hit like 100 X on pumped up on needs in the trenches, even with the
market just kind of like stagnant. And this kind of like sideways or downward movement,
whatever you want to call it. So I don't think memes are done at all because the biggest draw for retail and
you know, you guys are really smart.
You've been in crypto a long time.
So you're very analytical, but the majority of these crypto buyers are coming
and they're not analytical, right?
They want it to be easy.
They want it to be easy to understand.
They want to buy the dogs, the kitties, you know, things like that.
And I just don't think memes are gonna lose their appeal until the bull run is completely cooked.
But even in the bear, I could still see people gambling on like pump dot fun in Solana.
Yeah, I was surprised to see, um, yeah, I use a terminal where I can see all the recently bonded memes
or anything that's bonded on Pumped Out Fun and it still baffles me to see how many of
these things are still launching, even when we were at the lowest of the lows.
And I wonder, for sure the creation of these things
I don't think will slow down, maybe a little bit,
but I don't think Pumped Out Fun is dead.
I don't think that, I think it's one of the easiest,
it is the easiest way to launch
a token on Solana. So what, and I pointed this out on the show a few days ago, that I feel like it's
even a place for even projects that are looking to do something like utility projects, projects with,
you know, perhaps a good team, perhaps they're look, they're actually trying to do something,
team perhaps they're actually trying to do something with their project.
I see those launching on Pumped Out Fun and at the lows those were much easier to find
because there wasn't as much memes.
Even on a day like today, yesterday, just this week, you're seeing the dogs, the cats,
the Mubarak memes, the Vance memes,
like you're seeing all these memes continue to be created.
So sometimes I just kind of wonder,
perhaps the market did learn its lesson for the time,
but when prices kind of dictate how you feel,
kind of like Ragsy was saying,
people see that Pepe is pumping again, if people are seeing far coin is pumping again, you know
Perhaps in their minds that signals that well other things that are meme related will pump as well
And so that kind of justifies them throwing money at you know, these pump ones
I mean ultimately we know where this stuff ends up. We know that these most of these things
99% of these things will go to zero. We know that most traders probably won't make money
Chill chill and that's why chill what you just said right now
But everyone knows it goes to zero and that's why the ceiling for most of these alts have been so low
That's exactly that's no one but there's no there's no story. There's no story behind these memes, dude
Just a bunch of like dude, dude. it's honestly a bunch of cope, to be honest.
That's what I find this cycle.
It's just a bunch of like, cope and there's no story, right?
Like I even remember when I was trading SPX 6900, right?
I bought it at like 15 mil market cap and I was shilling it like crazy and then I had
Murad on the spaces and no one was talking about meme coin super cycle.
I'll put it up on the nest.
We had them on the show when SPX 6900 was at like 25 mil market cap.
The day that CZ got released and I remember like the consensus was when it was trading at like 200 mil, right?
Wow, you got to sell, you got to sell, sell your bag, sell your bag.
It's like, nah, bro, this thing is like just getting started.
It's going to pull off a fucking Pepe from Q2 of 2023.
That's what I was comparing it to.
And then when it was closing on a billion, it's like yo, I'm gonna take out my stuff
I think most of the trade is out. Are you crazy man? Retails coming in Trump is gonna ignite a meme coin frenzy
Are you crazy, bro? This is a meme coin super cycle like to get out of here, man
it's a bunch of cope honestly, it really is and
Not not to sound like brash or anything, but like, this cycle is just so
much different when it comes to the market participant, right? It really is. And you
know what's shocking, Chill? We talk about memes and all that stuff, but a lot of the
memes that were trending like with in Q1 of last year actually didn't make all time highs.
And anytime Pepe goes into price discovery, and I don't want to be someone that like picks on Pepe
or anything like that. This is something that I've observed. Anytime it goes into price discovery,
the market tops within like two to three weeks without fail. Right. So if this thing goes into
price discovery, dude, I think the cycle top is actually in.
If you break 13-bill within like a month, the cycle top is probably in.
And what's crazy is that the same sentiment is going to be formed.
Like, no, this is just the beginning, new paradigm, the Fed this, the Fed that.
And I do think there's probably going to be another rally at some
point to all time highs. But this cycle is just materially different in flows. Something
that's really hot one quarter could end up bleeding against the rest of the market. The
quarter after just take a look at whiff dude. Wasn't it the blue chip right? We call memes blue chips now
Which is honestly crazy. That is crazy work crazy one.
Ansim's tier list for memes.
Oh no, oh man, few remember that but you know, it's crazy bro
Ansim has called major tops in this market for majors, right? Dude, anyone that trades all coins is going to be wrong at some point.
Everyone is going to be wrong on all coins at some point, whether you sell too early
and you document that, or even worse, when you're left holding the bag and you're just
forced to find some kind of hope, right?
But in crypto, I feel like you have to have a high risk,
a high pain tolerance, pain of selling too early,
pain of missing out, or pain of not selling, right?
You're down 80% and you think your bags are gonna come back
and market doesn't owe you anything.
Market does not owe you a single thing.
But chill, don't you find that fascinating, man?
Last cycle with memes, there was a story, right?
The Doge had a story, SHIB had a story.
I think people that weren't around last cycle don't have a fraction of idea just how crazy the ship community went last cycle.
It was absurd. You saw it everywhere, man. And you just don't really see that now.
People would stream on YouTube, they would stream on kick, they would stream on TikTok, they would go crazy on Twitter, just over a frickin' dog.
Now you really don't see that
I think you don't really see that you see just pump fun stuff, which is I
Guess it's it paints a clear picture of how this cycle really is the short attention
And that's exactly what I was gonna double click on right there was the was a short attention span
I think pump fun and
just the amount of tokens that hit the market.
I think last cycle, there are a lot of bad actors that kind of figured out how they could
extract liquidity from this market. And I think in this cycle, they have now perfected
that. And that's why we see a record amount of just extraction in the market period.
And so what that's done is I feel like that's why things don't run as much as they used
to, especially on majors, because the emphasis is more on, hey, I need profits.
I need to extract from this market.
And so everyone is just looking to dump.
So they're not really, they're not paying attention
to the story, the story doesn't matter.
The only thing that matters is the chart.
And the chart, perhaps that will shine some light
on a story, but there's no guarantee.
The only thing that they want is just for the price
to go up.
And so with Pump Fund, with a lot of these people
getting in at like sub 50K market cap
and then running it up to perhaps 10 mil plus,
when you do that in two weeks,
there's almost zero incentive for you to do anything else.
If you've gotten some of the biggest gains
by just sleuthing on pump fund,
I think a lot of people just find it very low ROI
for them personally and how they're
wired and how their trading experience has been up until this point.
They're just not built for a long term hold.
And so that's the pump fundification of the market if that's even a thing.
But that's how I look at it.
Pump fund has had a really bad effect on just the lifespan of tokens and the expectations
of market participants.
They want it too quickly.
They're not willing to wait.
But essentially, that's why many people will lose.
A lot of people will end up chasing quick money and losing their money quickly versus the people that actually, you know,
they're looking just to kind of like have a process, have a system around this market
and actually have a mental framework that they're willing to and have a system that
they're willing to use to make profits and things of that nature.
Have a thesis on, you know, market cycle or the length of this kind of mini cycle or thesis
on particular assets or whatever it is, those are the people that will win.
Those that are willing to wait and those that manage risk and have goals.
And I think a lot of the pump fund traders, that's simply something that they don't have.
If they run into a bag, I mean, I've seen a guy, he's up,
you know, he ran up his wallet to nearly 10 mil,
but he held all of his memes
and his portfolio is down massively.
And so I think that's really the story
of all pump fund traders. They,
you know, either they they blow themselves up on these like sub 50k tokens that never
end up bonding or going anywhere, or they just become community members to something
that wasn't even worth their attention in the first place. I mean, I can't imagine where, you know, something like Aura or Hire or Skibbity Toilet or like the racist
meta like all these things that we've been, we've been bidding up.
The Skibbity Toilet era that was pretty fun, dude. Playing Sigma, lock-in. That was really
fun, dude.
And they were good for games, man.
If you had a thesis, you had a system
that you were willing to kind of deploy
to get in and out of these things, you did well.
So memes, they have their place,
but man, like a lot of people.
Shout out to Joe Biden, bro.
That was under Biden. Sleepy Joe, man.
We need Sleepy Joe back.
Yeah.
Unironically, bro, unironically
Donnie bro, I saw you put I see you put an eath chart up on the nest man
It's almost time it's almost time. It's almost time. It's almost time. I'm gonna go up the elevator real quick and hug and hug the first floor.
I was just trying to back Ragsia when she was being bullish on ETH there. But honestly, this setup is like a very clean setup.
You know, we've said that a lot about ETH. Like, you know, it's been in this range, ETF accumulation,
all this kind of stuff.
But like, you honestly can't ignore a high timeframe setup like this.
This is a very similar setup to the DXY chart that I'd been showing since December, just
the opposite, right?
This is a bullish PO3, that was a bearish PO3.
So for me, like pretty much you get above that 2.8k level and this fully confirms and you're headed
for the range high again and given the context that we're waiting for a big Fed pivot over
you know May June July then it's more likely than not you'll actually break that range
high and go test the all-time high right so you've got a very high time frame set up here
and it's from like it doesn't get cleaner than this right a very high time frame setup here and it's from like it doesn't get cleaner than this right a very high
time frame range the manipulation phase is disgusting you come into like the last point of
demand perfectly with that wick and now you're going to form some sort of like local accumulation
down here you could still revisit and deviate 1750 to you like, again, a textbook P03 you'd
want a local accumulation set up with some deviations of that
low, maybe a higher low to follow that before you get
acceptance back into the main range there of the range low.
And yeah, the dates just line up with what we're waiting for in May and June.
So I would think that this would hold given that I probably think the BTC low
is more likely than not already in.
And even if BTC does go to the next lower demand zone at 73,600, which kind of the
only catalyst I can see for that is potentially April 2nd, the tariffs.
I think this setup would still hold and
you know the manipulation phase is
Validated by you know how bearish people have become on eath
Just because we lost that range low
But it is a bullish setup
You know maximum capitulation
You know maximum capitulation
Local reaccumulation below the range low and as you start running up to that two eight five zero level
There's gonna be a lot of pharma
So it's a very very clean setup can't ignore it if it invalidates then so be it but right now it's a clean setup
Yeah, man. Oh go ahead. Go ahead ahead I just I just said I agree that's why I went long on all the all the
Longs I've had on memes because I guess I should have clarified the way you guys probably see it is like an investment
So you're accumulating so on a short-term trading. It's always been short-term trading
So if your friend there who had the 10 million he didn't get the memo
I feel sorry for him if he had 10 million bucks in there. It's a short-term pumped up on a short term
It's always there's always a new thing but Ethereum the same themes that have been
Consistent they're gonna continue to be consistent and the whiff hat you said something about the whiff hat the whiff hat was
2023 it's like it's not necessarily old news, but it's still in the top 10 memes,
you know, whiffs still in the top 10.
It's it got overtaken by the pumped out fun fiasco kind of sucked up all the
attention because that memes are just as hot this cycle.
Like kind of what you said about SHIB.
You remember all these videos about SHIB?
Yeah, that's because there was less competition last cycle because you had to be a developer pump that fun and all these new tools came out and now you don't have to be a developer you could literally be to the other gentleman's point a 12 year old child and deploy a meme coin and not have any developer knowledge whatsoever so it's's a lot more, the liquidity spread out.
So on Solana, it's more of a short-term training strategy,
but because of the tools that Solana kind of like provided.
But Ethereum, like if you're bullish on Ethereum,
like I am or like Donny is, it's like to me, I see it.
It is like the most obvious play in the book
is the top ETH memes memes because why would you hold all your ease and just aetherium when you
could hold the top meme like Pepe which is probably gonna outperform aetherium
right so it's just to me it's like the most it's just my opinion most obvious
like play that there is for like the top ETH memes narratives that have held up
but um but anything could happen you know maybe maybe Donnie and I are wrong and ETH
is going to zero and and it's the end I don't know but I just feel like it's such an obvious
play for these ETH ones.
Yeah this this is a this is a nasty nasty setup on on ETH right here, but it is a bullish setup, like
I would take.
And that's why when I saw the chart last night and I saw this, I was like, oh damn, if I
get a clean entry on this, so let's say we deviate that low, come back in for a higher
low, right on the market structure break, like there let's say like probably around like 1800 as soon as you break that that's where I would take a huge
long on this setup with the stop loss just on that deviation of the low very
very high risk reward trade like if you get it
Well, I think that's pretty much it for today.
Ragsy, Donnie, Chill, Prometheus, thank you all so much for coming on.
Shout out to you guys in the audience.
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So I'm going to go ahead and take a nice long walk and I think I'm going to have some nice Asian food.
I had a killer training session yesterday, man.
Yeah, it was pretty good.
I think I'm going to start uploading some training content again on my personal page
on here. I'm recovering from this tricep injury
pretty nicely and
Yeah, I'm not sure what else to say Donnie Rags. Is there any like
Closing thoughts you want to have unrelated unrelated to markets and stuff. I'm finding what song to play
play. Yeah, I'm having a tough time.
Yeah, I'm having a tough time
I would say, utilize this quiet period outside of the charts while you can.
Because when things speed back up, you'll have no time for any of that.
So just less charts, more outside of the charts and just like enjoy this
peace period while you've got it.
I think I remember, you know, after that election
rally set up, why do you remember from that day for the next like three months?
That was awesome. Yeah, that was all sleeping like five hours a night, waking up at night,
checking my wallets, like selling, buying. It was insane.
I've asked her whatever, man, you kind of want your boomer coins to go up as high as possible.
Sometimes is that like is very confluent with money that goes on chain as well.
And typically after like the boomer coins peak as they did in early December, you usually
have like a few weeks of on chain volatility to the upside, which is pretty good.
So I think...
When I...
Go ahead, Rezi.
I have a suggestion for your walk.
When I go on walks, I don't listen to secular music.
Oh, I don't listen to secular music.
No, ma'am, I never do.
I hate secular music.
I hate...
You should do pure tones. So I listen to like pure tones and
different hertz, because it's like really good to raise your
vibration. And it's like very bizarre, right? But I swear by
it, it really works. You can I play like a pure, pure tone. And it's really good. And I make you like, really happy. You can, I play like a pure, pure tone
and it's really good.
And it'll make you like really happy.
You could listen to like 888 Hertz.
It's just like a tone.
Like you could, you could even play really low.
So you barely hear it.
And I was not exactly, this is good stuff.
This is good stuff.
I like listening.
I like listening I like listening to
so like Like war champ music in one earplug and on the other earplug. I listen to the Bible being recited in Chinese
Stuff like that
That's very interesting. Do you speak Chinese? I
Speak a little bit of Japanese. Yes, but that's something for another time.
I'm going to go ahead and play Friend Like Me from Aladdin to close off the space. What is this? What is this? What is this?
What is this?
What is this?
What is this?
What is this?
What is this?
What is this?
What is this?
What is this?
What is this?
What is this? What is this? I'm not sure what you're talking about. You know, hey, you're not a good person.
You ain't never gonna be a good person.
I'm not sure what you're talking about.
You ain't never gonna be a good person.
Come on, we saw what it is you want.
You ain't never gonna be like me.
Yes, sir, we've had ourselves.
I'm a prolly bad, I'm all of college B.
I'm in the mood to help a junior,
cause you ain't never had a been like me.
I'm a wacky, nobody knows.
Nobody knows. Wack knows. No one knows.
No one knows.
No one knows.
No one knows.
No one knows.
No one knows.
No one knows.
No one knows.
No one knows.
No one knows.
No one knows. No one knows. Oh, hooo! Hey, hey, this thing three miles long, no doubts.
Well, you got it in two, rub like a little rainbow.
Mr. Doctor, I can show you all.
I'm on the job, you big neighbor.
You ain't never had a friend, never had friends.
You ain't never had a friend, never had a friend.
And you have a friend like me.
