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Market Talk: FOMC! HUGE MOVE for BTC incoming!? Crypto Santa rally!?
Recorded: Dec. 9, 2025 Duration: 1:17:21Space Recording
Short Summary
In today's Market Talk, the crypto community discussed significant trends and potential growth opportunities, highlighting the upcoming FOMC meeting's impact on market sentiment, the impressive performance of Luna tokens, and Ethereum's resilience against Bitcoin. As traders anticipate a Christmas rally, the conversation also addressed the challenges faced by certain altcoins like Hyperliquid, indicating a mixed outlook for the market.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. The Oh, yeah. I'm not sure what I'm saying. The song's no return his name, the soldier of the army slows the game, he's the head
from from the past.
The voice is from beyond your pain, the song of fame, remember me, the grave, the name
of the rest of his at last, glory on to the end. I am on to the end.
I am on to the end.
I am on to the end.
I am on to the end.
I am on to the end.
I am on to the end. Oh Oh we remember! We remember! We remember!
We remember!
Shout, now return his name.
A soldier of the arms knows the game.
His head comes from the past.
Rise from beyond your grave.
Son of a human hand.
And in the rain, they rescue me, Santa. From the finish line, to Germany, to the same, the power of us, he came from us.
Cross of Mavillain, an island cross of bronze, a purple heart, one is doomed by a cross.
A battle to the ground is ironed, a soldier of the army, it's close to the game.
We take home from the past, I assume tell me I'm your name,
suck your finger and bring the rain, get your last to fix that fast. Yo, what's going on, guys?
Bit of a change in today's music.
Today's song was Sabaton.
And the song name is Soldier of Three Armies.
And, man, some very cool price action today.
I really like the small wave of breadth that we're seeing today on majors.
We have BTC retesting its local range high.
We actually broke a little bit above it.
We hit just below 95K, 94.4, 94.5,
depending on what exchange you guys are looking at.
But basically, we just hit a small poke above our current range high,
which was at 93K and some change.
And we are seeing some breadth.
We are seeing some breadth.
We're seeing Sol BTC have a little bit of an uptick.
Even things like pudgy penguins are doing quite well today.
But oddly enough, guys, we did see Hyperliquid actually make lower lows earlier today, which is very odd.
It's very, very odd.
You'd expect one of the previous leaders in alts to actually be green on the day.
We're also seeing Pump relatively flat.
It's kind of retracing its pump here.
But earlier today, basically almost every asset had a little wave of breadth.
And something that we've been prospecting here on today's show,
but lately on the show, some things that we've been prospecting,
even if some of us are bearish, is the possibility of a rally, a Christmas rally.
Many events are happening this week.
We have the FOMC tomorrow.
Let me just approve everyone before I continue on my yap.
I feel like my voice is changing, by the way.
I think it might be the eggs.
I'm also changing up my diet.
And yesterday, I didn't really have much sleep.
My team decided that it would be a great idea to have meetings at 5 in the morning.
Not 6, not 7, not eight, but five in the morning.
And as a matter of fact, Prometheus actually suggested that we have a meeting at 1 a.m.
ESC. Isn't that right, Prometheus? The early bird gets the worm. And
that was a fun time. That was a fun little discussion. And by the way, if there's some connection issues,
by the way, I'm pretty sure it's just spaces acting up. But lots of interesting things
happening in the market before FOMC. Some crime actually going on in a few charts like Pippin, coin that uh we uh that we uh used to talk about uh later last year in q4 and uh earlier this year
in like january it's actually in price discovery even though the team hasn't even given a single
update in months uh we also have luna both uh the new luna luna 2 I think it's called. And also the original ticker, which is now LUNCLUNK, which is up like 300% over the last week.
So lots of crime going on in a few actual dead charts.
But, I mean, that's kind of what you'd expect whenever you see a wave of breath after volatility has been so compressed we also
have the iwm earlier today before lunchtime uh right around like 12 p.m est hitting another
marginal new all-time high which is it's it's it's probably the weirdest price action um
that we've ever seen if if you guys pay attention to equities uh it's probably the weirdest price action um that we've ever seen if if you guys pay attention to equities
uh it's probably the weirdest price action that you've seen on something like the iwm so
again something that we've been prospecting here is this is either like a distribution top
um and if you guys take a look at something like the s&P, anytime the S&P is about to have a big correction, it usually makes just a small marginal all-time high.
Even with Bitcoin, a small marginal all-time high before a broader correction.
Or this is basically Bitcoin at like $32K in October 2023, where it's just chilling there after the CoinTelegraph guy put out a fake tweet
about the ETF news. And then you have that you have that expansion. So again, we have the FOMC
tomorrow. And we also have the Bank of Japan raising rates later on this week. And yeah,
I mean, I went to the gym yesterday, as I was saying, little to no sleep and also fasted.
And I managed to pull almost 700 pounds with no belt on an axle bar.
And I feel really, really, really, really, really good.
Insanely good, actually.
It's incredible.
I put it on my personal profile.
And I'm going to go ahead and try to bring up Louie up here.
I'm not sure what's wrong.
I know spaces sometimes, anytime the market has some sort of like big move in crypto,
spaces lately have often been really, really buggy.
And at some point, I'm hoping that like all of this could be fixed.
I'm hoping that like all of this could be fixed.
Maybe they build out an app of sorts, just like how Grok has the Grok app.
Maybe we can have an X-Bases app or something of the equivalent because this is honestly insane.
But guys, before we officially get started, I want to go ahead and welcome you all back to Market Talk, brought to you by BB.
I'm your host, Wabi.
And we're going to talk about the prospect of a huge move incoming, right?
I know sometimes these titles can be somewhat clickbaity, but more oftentimes than not, a big move actually does happen, right?
So there's two sides of the camp, right?
You have bears that could actually see the prospect of BTC hitting something like $97 to $98K.
That would take Ethereum to about $36,000, $3700, and then followed by a confirmation of that shoulder-ish top and maybe a grind back down
a 75 or 80k then you have the bullish side right where if you do end up crossing 100 102k
that could provide a meaningful rally to uh to new all-time highs and um look here's the thing about these markets, right? A little over a month ago on Polymarket, the odds of the Fed cutting rates was a lot less than it is right now.
The Fed was actually prospected to not raise rates, and all of a sudden, they're about to, right?
I'm saying prospect so many times today, man.
It's really frustrating.
So you guys are going to have to excuse me for that.
But look, I'm joined by Ragsy, joined by Louie, joined by Sully,
and also joined by Prometheus.
Before we officially get started, guys,
if you guys can go ahead and share the space,
show some love to the stream guys
once again market talk will be starting at a new time which is uh right now at 3 30 p.m est rather
than 4 30 p.m est i'm probably going to have to say this for the remainder of the week just so
that our usual audience that tunes in at the at the previous time can catch up
and hopefully converge over the next week or two so guys go ahead share the stream show some love
guys the best way to do that is by clicking the spaces the little spaces tab below once you guys
do that you'll see a little link right above all of our profile pictures that says x.com slash i
slash spaces once you guys do that just hit the like button hit the repost button does a ton of
things helps bring the stream out into the algorithm guys helps uh spread just overall
brand awareness guys if you're if you're bullish hit the like button if you're bearish hit
the repost button if you if you simply just love markets just hit the love hit the like button hit
the repost button and uh we're gonna go ahead um and get started so i first want to pass it on over
to sully sully how are you man we uh just had a little peak above the current lower time frame range high at 93K, but one of our favorite tickers in the entire market, Hyperliquid, is not showing any strength at all, man, which is honestly odd.
at all man which is which is honestly odd um yeah i know i know both louis and also uh prometheus
are telling me that spaces are acting um buggy i know let me actually try to bring you up as
co-host prometheus let me see if uh let me see if that would work i'm also gonna uh send a co-host
invite to my uh personal profile but sully what's up man it's great to
have you uh it's great to have you back here on these shows man feel free to give uh any thoughts
whether uh long or short we've got um the fomc tomorrow and people might think it's a nothing
burger but you know it could actually um push this little wave of breadth and
maybe we see uh hyper liquid catching up uh to btc and eth um i know you've had your targets
for um hyper liquid bottoming out somewhere between like what was it, $17 to $18? That was a great short, by the way, man, a great short.
I don't know, maybe we see some short covering
to like 30 bucks, 31 bucks, that'd be like a 10% move, man.
But what's up, bro, how are you?
Does my voice sound differently, by the way?
Because I was at the gym, right?
And my training partner, she's a girl.
She's a real girl.
And I was – it's nice to meet you.
But I was on the Stairmaster, and we were talking about, like, post-workout nutrition.
And I asked her, like – I asked her, oh, my goodness.
But I asked her, is my voice sounding different because i i i
literally feel my like the octaves in my voice being deeper if if that makes sense
is my voice changing bro does it sound a bit different testosterone from the eggs
i think you sound good man okay okay all right maybe maybe it's me hearing
myself man but dude what are your thoughts man i guess if you want to touch on like um
i guess like the discrepancy between the market and hyperliquid hyperliquid
um has essentially been a leader uh for dubious speculation across the board for the all coin market.
I would say over the last basically since TGE, man, and I would say over the last like,
dude, I would say over the last three weeks or so, it's just been in this brutal downtrend of lower highs and lower lows,
whether as the rest of the market has either been compressed on a range
or a few select tickers showing some signs of life over the last few days, bro.
What are your thoughts here?
Yeah, what's up, Wabi?
I just got back from the gym, did some chest and triceps.
Nice to hear you're hitting the Stairmaster, man.
Got to build those glutes up for the ladies.
But no, hype looks terrible.
Hype looks terrible.
I have been waiting, obviously, for a pullback on it.
But it's kind of doing the same thing that it did in Q1 earlier this year,
where it just sat up there for so much
longer than you thought, squeezed out shorts at support pretty much without fail for weeks.
And I think we're about to see the next part, which is that it breaks down and ultimately
proves to the people that, all right, this asset this time is not, in fact, different. It probably
is going to break down. I'm not a buyer of hyper
liquid at the current prices. And I don't know that I'd really recommend that anybody else would
be either. I mean, just look at the structure. It's like the most textbook distributive top
that if you had to like make one in a textbook, you'd basically do that. Right. But that's not
to say that it can't kind of continue to squeeze shorts out.
I know, though, there is one of the larger hype holders.
If you guys know who NMTD is, he's like a very early adopter of Hyperliquid.
He is not far away from getting liquidated on hype EVM for like eight figures.
And he is actively encouraging people to buy generational prices here
so i'm just gonna i'm just gonna put that out there uh i think four selling is probably coming
for hype and you know i i think when we kind of look at altcoins that are leading or or were
leading the market rather uh through strength hyper liquid and i'm gonna target something like
z cash here i kind of feel like z cash is putting in a bearish retest at current prices.
So, you know, I don't know.
I mean, I think there are altcoins that are communicating this is probably the top
or close to the top of this local rally that we've had.
I'm not, you know, I'm not opposed to us continuing the rally.
I do want to say that.
I think this spot for crypto is fairly binary in the sense that, you know, I think if Bitcoin
is going to reject $94,000, $95K, you probably are going to be making new local lows within
this downtrend relatively soon.
So I feel like you kind of have to take that into account if you are somebody who's looking
to invest in this market long term, maybe swing trade it.
But I will say, you know, I've been kind of warming up to the idea that the bottom could
be in as well.
But what I'd like to see for that to be the case is probably a move up into the low 100
Ks and then back down to 80 K.
You know, if you confirm a double bottom there, then I think I would probably be fairly gung
ho bullish.
But we haven't seen that yet.
And I think that we're still seeing
pretty discernible weakness throughout crypto, not just in Bitcoin and ETH. ETH gave us a really
great squeeze today, right, up 6%. So I do want to take that into account as well. If we are going
to rally from here, ETH, Bitcoin is likely going to rise. I think that only makes sense to me at
this point. But yeah, we're seeing kind of conflicting signals when we look at some of these other altcoins, like a hyperliquid,
for example, that used to lead the market. Now looks very, very weak. The push-pull relationship
between equities and crypto, you know, is our equity is going to eventually drag crypto higher?
And what we saw over the last few weeks was kind of more of like a liquidity sensitive sector such
as crypto being impacted by those by those changes I would say mostly from like the government
shutdown or you know is this what we've seen multiple times over the last few years where
crypto weakness does precede equity weakness in fact and then stocks just end up making the entire move more or less all in one go.
So I guess that's still the question that I have.
I would say, you know, a few weeks ago I was looking for a crash to occur.
Just because it has not happened yet does not mean that it cannot or will not.
And I would say, you know, we're probably just going to continue to see this steepening
decline throughout crypto if we're going to be rejecting here on Bitcoin.
So it's kind of it's kind of to me put up or shut up time if you're a bull.
And I guess if you're a bear, you just, I think it's likely game back on because
equities have successfully dragged crypto into a bullish market structure break in that scenario.
So I guess we'll see. I could kind of see either or. Typically, what I tell people when the market
is kind of giving you a bunch of noise through a bunch of different tickers is kind of just trade uh individual names as they are right uh so right now hyperliquid's
weak we know that zcash we think is a bearish retest here those are probably if nothing else
decent shorts here uh and if we are going to break higher you know what's strong well something like
fart coin has been pretty strong mean coins typically do well when we get rate cuts.
I don't have any opinions on FOMC tomorrow.
I have no idea what they're going to do.
I assume they're going to cut, but I really don't have a strong opinion on it.
So I guess we'll see what that does to the market.
I'm really watching equities for high time frame directionality, because if they just
rip higher into like 7k,
then I don't really know that there's that much of a bearish case anymore. But if they don't do
that, right, then we are seeing the weakness in more liquidity sensitive sectors, as I said. So
yeah, I guess we'll see what we get, Wabi. But that's kind of how I'm seeing the market right
now. I don't think that it makes sense to be like gung-ho bullish. But as we've seen over the last two weeks, you've tried to short the hole on Bitcoin.
You're getting punished for that as well.
Yeah, speaking of Farcoin, I do remember last week around this time, I think Farcoin was trading at just over 310 mil market cap.
So just under 30 cents.
And I was mentioning how there's a possibility that this thing is actually like completely bottomed and maybe there's a little return to tradition here. Right. And I guess the comment section was really like disastrous and filled with anger.
I think there are some assets that honestly bottom out before majors do.
And maybe this is one of them, man.
This thing hit like $0.16, went below its March 2025 lows.
And Dip Wheeler is just posting half-naked women.
The state of things, bro. Just the state of things bro just the state of uh of far coin bros
the only issue wabi with far coin is that farts is that farts are not funny
dude i mean i mean that that statement was funny the only issue with far coin that that's actually that's actually funny man um
i guess but geez bro i don't know how you people eat eggs man and fart and like are not cognizant
of what you're doing to the environment i'll i'll say that much man um but Sully, what's going on with the IWM, man?
Like, like, go to your head.
Do you think this is like distribution or, or could you prospect an actual breakout rally,
man?
This is so annoying, man.
It's so, so, so annoying.
It's kind of like, it's kind of like getting a louis vuitton box
and you're about to open it but you just don't know what's inside you just don't know what's
inside or it's like getting a pokemon uh a pokemon um sticker pack and it's like a legendary pack and
you're about to open it you just don't know like if you're
just going to get a bunch of those element cards or if you might even pull out a rare one dude
yeah i think that's the issue with the iwm you really nailed it wabi it's like
most of the reason that the iwm is pumping is because of unprofitable companies um hard to
really know if that's a sign of market strength or weakness. It is,
I think, a little bit noisy. I would say it might have some relationship with the fact that a lot
of these hedge funds are kind of running like this perpetual pair trade of being short the IWM
and long mega cap tech. If you just look at that pair uh since like the early to mid 2000s
you can see exactly how profitable that trade has been and obviously it allows them to uh to stay
like delta neutral uh however they calculate it right it does allow them to stay delta neutral
by staying short the iwm so in some ways like the iwm moving up more than QQQ is a max pain trade for a lot of these larger players that might play a role.
I don't know. I don't really have like super strong opinions on IWM.
I don't think it really like says that much about the market other than the fact that like we're expecting to get rate cuts.
And as long as the market's not totally immolating, there's just going to be that like drift higher on small caps because of that. So
I would say that. But I did think it was funny. I was thinking about it earlier today. This will
be the last thing I say on the topic because I really don't have that much to offer. But
it is funny to me how we're talking about crypto like graduating into this new
like institutional fundamentally based asset class and then we're
using iwm as a reason why crypto should go higher but what's driving the iwm higher all of these
unprofitable companies so it's kind of like wouldn't wouldn't the idobm basically be like the pump
like the pump fun of trad fi um is that even a good comparison dude because if you if you think
about it right like pump goes up because people are speculating on pump fun right and those tickers are basically like
i don't i don't even know if you would even call them companies but i guess i guess just volume
on low caps and wouldn't that be what the iwm is fueled by volume to the upside on on uh on low caps um yeah i don't know about pump maybe it's like a bnb
anymore right bnb is kind of like your altcoin uh index per se anymore i mean you look at a lot
like a lot of these altcoins that um you know not the majors right, right? In the wake of the October 10th wipeout,
they've been trading on a lower timeframe,
a lot more correlated to BNB than Bitcoin and ETH.
Even like ETH beta, like Pepe,
I think has been mimicking something more like BNB than ETH.
Oh man, dude, BNB chain. oh man dude bmb chain
it flew too close to the sun man it flew too close to the sun and uh we had that on-chain season for
a few days uh but at least aster was something man it's just kind of not really doing anything. It just seems like anytime there's a new...
Yeah, yeah, Prometheus.
Yeah, I know, I know.
Spaces are just absolutely rugging right now.
But, I mean, I guess people can listen to the recording,
just like what happens.
I'm pretty sure this is exactly what happened last Tuesday.
No, no.
Last Wednesday, excuse me where like spaces
were just unusable and it was basically just kind of like a recording of sorts for the few that
were actually able to listen but uh louis what's up bro i see that you put um something up on the
nest man how are you what's up rob, Wobby? How's it going?
It's going pretty good, man.
Do eggs give you energy when you eat them?
I don't know about energy, but
I do eat eggs almost every morning.
But you gotta
eat the
organic,
free-range, all that fun stuff.
Yeah, I get the one
from Vital Forms. Yeah, I get the one from Vital Forms.
Yeah, I think that's what my wife usually grabs.
They're like $10, $12 more than her regular carton of eggs,
but you're getting a real egg.
Yeah, it's real, dude.
You want to get the real eggs and not the fake eggs.
I guess Vital Forms is is the BTC of eggs.
Oh my goodness, dude.
I think that's the sign of at least a break in a period of boringness.
When people start talking about the food tiers and all that stuff,
you guys remember the food tiers? Rank A, B, C, D. Anthem does a lot of those food tiers and all that stuff you guys remember um like the food tiers like rank a b c d
anthem does a lot of those food tiers um i think an s here breakfast would be
tomatoes with scrambled eggs and sweet onions uh with bacon ground bison, some mozzarella cheese mixed in with the eggs,
and then a strawberry banana smoothie with an acai juice as a base for the smoothie.
And a Greek yogurt or skier mixed with blackberries, chia seeds uh and uh and raspberries and all and and and and maybe some like some like
cotton candy grapes those are really good that that is a that's an excellent breakfast you have
that yeah you have that then you go on like a 30 minute walk then you have a protein shake and
yeah you get your day started in a big way, man.
That'd probably put me back to sleep.
What's up, bro?
What have you got up on the nest if you want to touch upon that?
Pretty much, you know, I've been coming on these spaces for the last week or two.
No real changes as far as how I'm looking at the market at the moment.
That was a video I did today.
We went live on YouTube just about an hour ago.
Pretty much diving into the data, right?
I've been talking a lot more recently about a potential catch-up trade
to the downside for equities.
Tommy touched on it a little bit.
But really that video is kind of diving into the data of when –
can you guys hear me?
Yeah, I can hear you, man. I can hear you.
Okay, cool. Sorry, I looked a little laggy for a second.
But pretty much diving into the data, like as I've been saying, like every time that Bitcoin has a 20% plus move to the downside, a lot of the times you see a lag and a follow-up trade to the downside out of equities.
So in that video, I pretty much looked at videos up in the Nets, guys.
Go check it out.
There's also a promo code at the end of that video that gives you 50% off your first month of any of our products.
So go check that video out.
But pretty much look at the last five times Bitcoin has had a correction of 20% or more since 2021.
And four out of the five occurrences of Bitcoin having a move like that to the downside,
having a move like that to the downside, the S&P lagged by a month or so and then had a follow-up
catch-up trade to the downside of 10% or more, right? And that's kind of been my canary in the
coal mine here where, yes, technically speaking, Bitcoin, ETH, altcoins crushed, right? We're
coming into some market structure. We've been at some market structure on Bitcoin, ETH. But what's kept me cautious here, where normally I'd be just blindly bidding a move like this after a 36 correction on
Bitcoin, is the fact that we haven't seen equities move to the downside just yet. And they don't
have to, right? Again, I said four out of the five times. The one time it didn't was during Bitcoin's
The one time it didn't was during Bitcoin's mid-cycle correction where we had that double top.
On that first high, Bitcoin dropped like 50-some-odd percent.
Equities didn't even flinch during that time period.
So that was one time we didn't see it. You know, the data and the charts are showing that S&P does and equities do lag a sizable move to the downside of Bitcoin and crypto.
So that's what's remained has me cautious still.
Right. So I am waiting for something like that to occur.
I will say it probably needs to occur within the next couple of weeks if it is going to happen.
the next couple weeks if it is going to happen if not maybe somewhere you know mid you know early
early to mid-february uh just as it did um beginning of this year right if you guys remember
coming into 2025 we had that big tariff scare scare drop where bitcoin dropped 30 all coins
got crushed um and the s p lagged Bitcoin to the downside for around a month.
So Bitcoin started heading to the downside end of December. And then S&P didn't really drop until February.
So about a month or two long lag there. So that's what I'm kind of looking for.
And coming into an FOMC tomorrow, these historically do provide key pivot points in the market.
If I had to guess, you know, the percentage probability of a rate cut tomorrow has been around 80 to 90 percent for the last couple of weeks.
If I had to guess, you know, this rate cut is priced in to the equity markets thus far.
So realistically, like what other good news do we
have for the market, right? For at least for the equity market in general to continue propelling
it higher. I would say a lot of it's already baked in, right? So pretty much in the camp where
looking for that downside catch up trade for equities, that should provide you know one more plunge um on bitcoin eth and all coins um and in
that in that if we get that move uh i will be looking to to bid uh some of these some of these
all coins and again the right all coins so kind of where i'm at and all that's in that video today
and again check it out there's a promo code in there for 50 off any of our products um so nice
little present there at the end of the video.
Let's go.
Yeah, guys, feel free to check out the video up above.
And as far as products, guys, you guys can check out the links in our bio,
whether it's our Inner Circle Alpha group or our trading terminal.
You guys can check that out.
Get yourself some early Christmas goodies.
And as always, guys, if you have any questions in regards to any of our products you can message Louie you can message me you can message uh Sully you can message the BB profile
we'll get back to you within 24 hours um I'll pass it now over uh to Evan Evan what's going on bro
what are your thoughts here uh locally here on BTC we had a little bit of a range break, man. What are you prospecting, man, from here until, I guess I would say, next week, right?
Typically, the second half of December is relatively flat for alpha, right?
Majors, major indices as well. And I don't know, maybe he could get a potential run of breadth for beta
for the second half until, I guess, fund managers rebounds their portfolios
early next year and they start getting some bonuses and all that good stuff.
I'm not able to hear you, by the way, if you're speaking.
Is anyone able to hear you, by the way, if you're speaking. Is anyone able to hear Evan?
I can't.
Louis Ragsy.
No, I can't hear him.
Uh-oh.
Oh, man.
Yeah, Evan, I'm not able to hear you, brother.
I'm not able to hear you at all.
Yeah, it's just a feature of Grok being in charge of the algorithm, man.
It's just Grok being in charge of the algorithm.
Rags, if you want to go, feel free to give some of your thoughts.
How are the vibes like at Art Basel as far as market sentiment?
How are people viewing the markets if they even talked about the
markets at all uh the art market is like very different so usually like it's a commodity right
so it's like usually when the the stock market's sky high that's when you start seeing shit going
for like great that's when they cabal it it's like very similar to crypto that's when you see those
crazy sales at christy's somebody bought this for 500 million whoa it's it's also like when the
market's like super high so it's very like it's actually kind of funny because very similar to
crypto in a way but like uh the fact that so many people are bearish makes me actually very bullish and I'm buying right now
it might you know I might get my ass handed to me on some of these it might be down end up being
down quite a bit but I don't know some of these altcoin charts to me look bottomed and I think
that like for me I always ask like is it being used because people gotta realize like a lot of
these altcoin bros have to realize like a lot of your altcoins they're never coming back
like they're obsolete you have to pick the altcoins that are gonna be used like government
the ones with government contracts the ones that are progressing with ai that's the shit in my
opinion that's gonna cook And then so I'm
looking for altcoins that are going to be used or still being used to have big partnerships that are
bottomed right now are close to the bottom. You know, I could go down like 20 percent or something.
And then I'm scooping up now because even if we don't get an altcoin season, this bull run
is going to happen eventually. Right. Even if it's two years from now, I'm still bidding pretty much the bottom or like 20% from the bottom now.
And then I just hold it and then I just sell it when the market goes back.
So I'm personally buying a lot of altcoins right now.
And so like similar to what I did when the market started crashing in 2022, I was trying to get some bottoms of some altcoins there in early 2023.
It did take a few years, yeah, but at the end of 2024, I was up like 500% on a lot of them.
That's just kind of how I roll.
For altcoins, it's always a long-term thing, but you've got to look like what you think is going to be still being used in two years from
now you know what i mean because a lot of the alts like i see even like people are so hopeful
on some layer ones like layer ones are cooked it's over it's like eth solana if it's not like
the top five or top 10 you know you know what are your thoughts on monad? Talking about L1s, what are your thoughts on Monad?
I knew you were going to ask that.
To be honest with you, I think a lot of people got an airdrop and made money on it.
But now it's like where I'm at, I would never invest in that.
Because you still have to compete.
But we don't need another layer one.
You'd still have to compete with ethereum
solana bnb all the ones that are dominating so in my mind the layer ones have been chosen
so like launching a new layer one at this point i think it's just a money thing hey if you can
make money on it i know a lot of people got an airdrop like make the money maybe it'll pump
this cycle but then i think it's it's. Like the layer ones have been established, like in my opinion.
And even the ones that were hot last cycle, they're still like struggling.
They're still lagging behind so much, behind ETH, B&B, Solana, you know.
So I'm not personally buying any layer ones right now.
But I'm buying like things that have to do with AI because I still think AI is going to have another boom.
Things like that are storage cloud, like cloud storage and stuff like that that's being used or will continue to be used.
Or even things like Chainlink that has the contract with JP Morgan.
Things like that.
That's kind of what I'm focusing on.
I'm not really looking to acquire Layer 1s.
It's not that Monad sucks or it's bad or anything.
It's just like the pie is so much smaller.
Because there's so much competition now in the L1 space.
How many more L1s?
Who's going to use all these L1s? You know
what I mean? I'm looking for more future forward thinking cryptos that'll be like an emerging
narrative when the market turns around. I still think AI will cook. I think RWA will cook. Things
like that because that's what gets the VC money. You got to get the VC money in.
I think people will get have a better chance at getting that venture capital money in like something with a buzzword like AI or RWA than a layer one.
I think layer ones was last cycle, to be honest.
But it's like I'm all like, hey, if you can make money on it, make the money on it.
But I think the bigger money is going to be with like those kind of like
trigger words. You know what I mean? That makes sense.
Yeah. You'd, you'd honestly be disappointed, um,
on how like the on-chain trenches are in Monad right now. I,
I lost like all my money on there. Um,
whatever, dude, it happens it happens um i put like a
couple hundred bucks uh that i got from the airdrop um i mean the airdrop was nice bro but
like i put a portion of that into um some on-chain tickers and like most of them just like got cooked like they all topped out
at like three mil and it's like damn dude like that's the that's the ceiling all right um but
i i'm kind of viewing it as suey if you remember suey when it came out um it came out in like the
worst market conditions ever because it was after Pepe had its peak.
And then after Pepe peaked, like, there was literally nothing to do for months and months and months if you weren't buying Rollbit or Unibot or Ox.
And honestly, like, if we look at the price action, it's kind of similar.
You have that pump that lasts for the first 48 hours,
and then this, like, slow perpetual bleed.
And it's not until majors catch a huge bid where it's kind of like,
I always forget that term, the wave, the tide that lifts all boats
or something like that um
and just the valuation on sui uh compared to monad is like ridiculous and i kind of have to wonder
like is sui a money laundering chain kind of like trx um because there's literally nothing to do on Sui. And they had their biggest DEX LP get drained earlier this year.
And it's basically as if, what if Uniswap got hacked?
And if that were to happen to Ethereum, Ethereum would probably grind down to like $800.
So that's my thing with Sui.
And you also look at some other L1s like SEI compared to Monad.
And I think honestly, like Monad will do well.
But I mean, you need so many things to happen with monetary policy.
You'd probably need rates to come down to like 2%, maybe a percent and a half,
which if there's a bet on Polymarket, if there's a market for that there,
that'll probably be a good trade.
Maybe like rates at 2% by like next summer or something like that.
The payout probably wouldn't be like decent,
but I mean it's better than longing the S&P by like 2 or 3x.
At least that's how I
view polymarket with some of these with some of these bets um but um Evan what's up Bryce you
have your hand up man how are you what's going on man can you hear me now I hope yeah yeah yeah I
think I I think man like hearing you recently Evan my voice is just like becoming deeper, you know, like, yeah, I mean, it literally
might be the diet change, bro. Like I eat no processed foods anymore, bro. Zero processed
foods. It's just pure whole foods, man, like actual whole foods foods and the change is actually significant like you can
literally only sleep like five six hours and those five six hours feel a lot better than sleeping like
eight hours while your diet is just like horrible bro you know so bro I've spent the last few months living in like Japan, Vietnam, Thailand, all that.
And it's hard to even find processed foods, you know, a lot of those countries and like the eggs,
man, like everywhere else in the world, even the really rich countries, like the eggs are better
than anything you could find in the U S and they're like one third of the price. Like it's
just, you know, we're getting scammed here to a certain extent. I mean, America is good for some things, but not food is not, not one of them. And the same thing,
like I'm back in the U S now. And like, I'm the nice thing is like, I'm able to sleep like easily
eight or nine hours a night, but my energy levels are the same as when I normally sleep. Like
what you just said, five, six hours a night when I'm in like Japan or wherever. So it is, you know, that's a big deal.
I mean, my sinus is right now pretty congested.
It's the cold weather here, man.
But yeah, it's something to look into.
I mean, it takes discipline, especially in the U.S.
if you really want to avoid processed foods and all that stuff.
But I want to get into, you know, a couple of things involving, you know, great discussion.
I agree with a lot of what everybody was saying.
Louis had a lot of good points.
I think the first thing I'll touch on here is interest rates.
I mean, my view here, and maybe this is far out of left field,
but I was kind of comparing like, you know,
if you look at like 100-year theory, people talk about fourth turning, all that stuff.
Who was like the kind of still considered to a certain extent the world power like 100 years ago now 1920s it was the uk now why is that
relevant because the uk in 1925 that's when their housing market actually topped out for like seven
years or more and our housing market so far topped out in 2025 um so far maybe we'll make higher
highs next year or the year after i don't know know. But what happened with the UK is they had, I think, kind of higher interest rates at that
point, similar to kind of what we had now. In their interest rates over the next like five
to seven years, there's some volatility here and there, but they went gradually and slowly
downward. They did not, you know, just crash downward. And I think that in all likelihood,
even with a pawn put in by Trump, and I don't
think it's going to be a real puppet, it's going to be somebody who's probably more lenient to
the bowel, but probably, you know, the thing is things get factored in, like I forget what you
were saying, but price gets factored in. So a couple months before the new Fed share comes in,
you know, that's probably going to be already factored in. So I don't know if that's going to
just magically make things, you know, go upward. You may need a few more months and that would be the theory.
Like the earliest I could see a step bottoming out for this market, it would be probably May.
The latest I could see is bottoming out for this market would probably be October.
Part of me says more of the October scenario, but we'll see what happens. So I think that
in terms of interest rates, maybe I'm completely wrong, but I think that to get really low interest
rates, it's going to take long, man. Like you're going to need an actual recession and i i don't think you're i
think trump is going to be able to dodge that on his watch i think it's going to be somewhere between
2028 or excuse me 2029 like 2032 like kind of that area more likely like you know 2030 is my
kind of guess for that like that kind of area plus minus, you know, one or two years or whatever, about a hundred years kind of after the great depression. And then I think you will kind
of follow that cycle, you know, bear with me if I sound a little crazy, but you know, there's more
than just that, that kind of, you know, strengthens this argument to the fundamental strength in it
as well. So that's what I'm looking at in terms of interest rates. I don't think, I think it's
too good to be true like that. You're just going to go down to like two percent it's going to be slow and gradual and i would guess that your housing
market will go down slowly and gradually as well and the last thing about the uk i'll mention 1920s
is their stock market topped out in 1929 but their housing market topped out in 1925 so so far you
know it would be very very very interesting if the us does the same thing and that would be very, very, very interesting if the U.S. does the same thing. And that would be my educated guess on what even crypto may do.
I know Louis was talking about potentially, you know, stock market coming back down.
I look at the NASDAQ a little bit more than the S&P 500.
I do think the NASDAQ could stay bullish probably generally as long as Bitcoin is bullish.
I think that Bitcoin probably can get up to $108K, probably at least $102K.
I would give the odds of $102K to be very high, probably like 80%.
I would give the odds of 108K to be probably like 60%.
Pretty high, probably 50-50.
And I would still be bearish on those numbers unless you can break above 108K and kind of hold it.
I think that's your major kind of line in the sand.
I think that would equate to your 200 daily moving average on Bitcoin.
So I think as long as you are below that or can't hold that, then you're more in a bear market. And
you know, for all the like perma bulls, you know, super cycle people, like, I respect their opinion,
but I, I'm more than happy to buy Bitcoin back at 115 or 120 K on the way up to 200 or 300 K.
Because I would be much more confident at those levels rather than, you know, buying it right now. Whereas I think I could do a lot better holding, you know, old people investments such as
the S&P 500, such as some bonds, such as gold, such as Berkshire Hathaway, even, you know,
just stuff like that, just stuff that generally probably will outperform Bitcoin, you know,
in a bear market for the next four to six months. In terms of the triple Q, I think
we're the NASDAQ, I think we're pretty overdue. We're getting close to like your typical 15%
correction, similar to what you kind of saw in, you know, July of 2024, or like maybe your first
half of that February 2025 correction, like down 13 to 15%. I don't think it's going to be as
catastrophic as your Trump tariff dump down 25%,
but I would guess that, I mean, maybe you could make new all-time highs within a few weeks if
things get crazy with the NASDAQ. I think it's less likely to probably just come up a little
bit more, but from where we are right now, I could see a 15% kind of drop down, 14, 15%,
all the way to the peaks, end of 2024 numbers, I think you would reset back there. And that would
just make a lot of sense just based on, you know, basic technical analysis, just studying what the chart
does if you zoom out and just look at it on like the daily or the two day, you know, things of that
nature. And I think that would equate to, you know, probably Bitcoin coming down kind of from where we
are right now. I would say, I mean, a 15% for the NasDAQ probably would equate to like a 60K Bitcoin,
you know, 35% down from where we are right now.
You know, that would be kind of my optimistic look would be like high 50s, low 60s.
My realistic look would be, you know, maybe 48K, some liquidation numbers down to that
area that's the inception of the Bitcoin ETF.
And my pessimistic look, probably worst case scenario, would be like 35, 40 K. So those are
the main areas I'm looking at. And I think that, you know, the bear market rallies never underestimate
them. They normally go higher than everyone thinks. So, you know, it wouldn't be outrageously
impossible for us to have some wicks up to like one 12, one 10, those areas. But if you can't hold
that for, you know, if you can't do a weekly close there, it doesn't mean much to me. It's just a rejection, especially if you do lose 108K after
that. And that would likely bring us down to like, you know, I would say a major technical target
that, you know, if you lose, let's say 80K would be around like 58K. So that'd be kind of like a
major technical target that I would assume in the next few months. Last thing I'll say here is that this is very similar to kind of the bull market or bear market rally that we
saw. It's earlier each time in kind of the four-year cycle, but this is similar to what we
saw at the end of January into February last time. And the time before this would be comparable to,
this would actually be way back. Oh, damn it. My chart's not loading. Give me one quick second here that this would be very similar to kind of the rally in February of 2018, I believe.
So it's kind of like a month earlier each time, December rally. So you had, so, okay. So in 2018,
it was a February rally in 2022, it was a January rally. And now this time it's December rally of
the, still the bull market year theoretically. So I would equate in the, the, the thing too, that would probably look at, you know, the fed
was cutting in quarter four of 2024. It was generally pretty bullish for the market. Then
the moment they paused in January of this year, 2025, that led into, you know, a bear market or
at least the mini bear market. So I, I would assume the same thing may happen because you
probably won't see another rate cut until Powell's gone. Probably. I mean, maybe you'll
see one in May if there, I don't even know if there's enough, I would see beating in May, but
maybe you'll see one kind of in that area. He's gone May 15th, but the betting odds are not for
a rate cut for, you know, three or four months after we see this rate cut. And unless markets
really cater, like talking about, you know, probably over a 10 to 15% correction for the triple Q, I don't think that's really going to change.
So, yeah, I mean, the easy thing here is just wait till the new guys in, wait till they actually start cutting rates again.
I would guess people would kind of be trigger happy and jump a little bit too early, but it still would be a great time to buy Bitcoin.
I think, you know, if you're at 50, 60K, beautiful numbers, you probably could get a three, four X by the end of the decade easily. So,
yeah.
Man, Evan, you speak really well, man, when it comes,
when it comes to the markets and it's certainly going to be interesting what
happens, like how the market's going to price that in right after Powell leaves.
I actually think like when we talk about bear market rallies, and a year isn't really a higher
timeframe.
A year is just probably very, very small to the broader picture.
But however this correction is going to last, whether it lasts until May, March, or October, from
what you're telling me, after, the after effect of that and the Trump pump is going to be
ridiculous, man.
Because fundamentally, next year, it looks so, so, so good, man.
it looks so so so good man and all right if we just take a step back and we look at 2021
there was still a few months worth left of risk uh to bid to play for upside in crypto after
early november we had what five months ev, Evan? NFTs were going crazy.
Some Metaverse stuff was doing okay.
Some DeFi stuff was doing okay.
I know the stock market peaked in, like, late December of 21, early January.
And, I mean, the bid was basically gone in equities,
right as, like, the Ukraine war and all that stuff had
started out.
But nonetheless, typically after markets reach a short-term hop, there's usually still some
sort of plays to be made here.
And as far as some assets like a chain link or whatever, maybe they actually end up being
like a Google where after .com, Google didn't really do much for like 10 plus years link hasn't really done much
geez bro link hasn't done much in like five years relative to its bitcoin pair um yeah it's just
it's just it's it's it's honestly insane um i think Bitcoin probably outperforms Link for a little bit longer.
But I see Uncle Gary in the audience.
I'll send him an invite to speak.
We had some really nice points.
I'm not even sure if most of the audience can even hear us.
We were getting comments.
And I also got some dms on my personal that
people aren't able to hear and that spaces are rugging um i'm really hoping that at some point
that we can actually have an app specifically for spaces um just how grok has its own app i mean
you you think of how large some of these um streams get when volatility
really kicks in and and i think at some point this could even rival like the numbers that
we see on on uh on twitch and kick where you're actually able to sustain an audience of like 10,000 plus. Um, I think the only space that has ever gotten an organic listener base of 10,000
users was when Trump went live on spaces.
Do you remember that Evan?
When,
Elon and Trump had that,
had that spaces right before the election.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Vaguely.
Yeah.
That was insane.
They had glitches though,
and issues with it. Um, similar to what we saw today. Yeah. That's it. Yeah. bases right before the election yeah yeah vaguely yeah that was insane they had glitches though and
issues with it um similar to what we saw today yeah that's it's yeah yeah that was crazy man
real is there anything else that you want to that you want to talk about in regards to markets
louie or ragsy if you guys want to mention anything else feel free to do so quickly i
want to mention that any altcoin um thatperforms Bitcoin, I think, for the next four to six months is probably going to be able
to continue to do well into the end of this decade. Ethereum is still outperforming Bitcoin
generally. I mean, it bottomed out against Bitcoin in April, and it's still showing strength against
Bitcoin, which is a really good thing. And I think,
you know, when you look at where Ethereum bottomed out against Bitcoin the last time,
it was right around when it ended QT in 2019. And even though you went, you went through COVID,
you know, you went through a bear market, you know, some of those months there,
ETH still outperformed Bitcoin through all that. And I think the same could be said about, you know, some of your legacy altcoins back then. I don't want to think Cardano could have, you know, a few others too. So I think that
anything that's able to hold up very strong against Bitcoin over the next four to six months
probably has a lot of potential to keep doing well in 2027, 2028, and hopefully even into 2029,
kind of the end of the decade there. I think ETH is the safest bet, obviously, right now.
I think now is the time to be more conservative in general.
But if you're going to be a little bit more risky with an altcoin,
I would say ETH is the best bet right now.
And I mean, it almost looks more attractive to me than Bitcoin at the moment.
But that's especially in a potential bear market with all this stuff going on.
that's especially in a potential bear market with all this stuff going on.
I mean, be careful, obviously.
I mean, be careful, obviously.
Real, man.
Ragsie Louie, is there anything else that you guys want to mention?
No, I agree with him.
I think I've been watching the East chart as well.
I wouldn't be surprised if we got a magic random ethereum run out of nowhere because that's how they're rolling
right now like it's just mad you know like a magic what the hell is going on eth is running
and nothing else is running i could actually see that happen but you, like, before the end of the year, maybe Q1, like, first before everything else.
And, yeah, no, I'm still, like, super bullish.
The fact everyone's, like, bearish and nervous right now makes me think we're going to get one last, like, hurrah at some point.
But one thing I've been pointing out on my TikTok, and I did it in, like, 2023,
because, like, I was on the spaces where they
had a whistleblower in 2023 about how like all these like major exchanging exchanges are operating
in crypto and like they've always cheated but I mean with these AI tools I mean they are really
messing it up you know what I mean So that's why this cycle feels so.
If you were like an altcoin bro, you're like, man, I can't win.
You're like, longs are getting liquidated.
Your shorts are getting liquidated because they're like low-key cheating, dude.
I don't want to say the guy or what he said, but in 2023,
like these exchanges have technology.
They can analyze everything, all the markets.
There's no regulation yet yet that's why they can
get away with it yeah and it's like and with these ai tools it's on another level so everyone was so
bullish right for q4 taking out longs so the government shut down and whatnot but you know
the exchanges it's like you can see it on chain like it it was a coordinated dump. They like six major exchanges, like dump Bitcoin all in the same day at the same time.
It's like out of,
is like crazy out of control this cycle, right?
So they're going to continue to cheat.
So that's why I've just been buying shit on spot.
I'm like scared to take out longs and shorts
because if the exchanges are cheating,
how are you going to win?
Your technical analysis could be on point.
You could be 100% right and the TA is telling you one thing, but if they're cheating and they see
everyone's long, they're going to dump their stuff. You know what I mean? They're going to
liquidate everyone. So I've just been looking for bottom charts and taking things out on spot for
my alts. That's what I've been doing all cycle. Cause I'm like, how are you going to win leverage trading? I just don't see how, like,
if you are winning, I'd love to know who you are. If you, if you're winning with the leverage
trading, I'd love to know who you are. I'd love to meet you. Like, please DM me because
with the way the exchanges are cheating, this cycle is like crazy compared to last cycle.
So I've just been kind of looking for bottom
charts, buying things slowly on spot. It is selling when I'm a profit. That's just kind of
like my alt strategy. Cause I don't see like with all this tech and with what he just said,
no regulation, it's like out of control. You know what I mean? And I think it's going to be that way.
But the good news is I do think we will have, I still really think we're going to get a new all time high for ETH before it's over. I really believe that,
you know, so, so we'll see what happens.
Well, guys, I'm going to go ahead and call it here.
Well, guys, I'm going to go ahead and, uh, and, and call it here.
Man, spaces, I tell you what.
Hopefully at some point next year all this can be fixed.
I guess that's what happens when we entrust platforms to AI right now.
I mean, the tech actually works, right?
AI is not going anywhere at all and crypto is a great proxy to capture that upside so guys i'm
gonna go ahead and call it here i want to thank evan ragsy louis and uh sully for joining me on
spaces guys uh we'll be back tomorrow at the same time at 3 30 p.m esc check out all the links in our bio
for all things inner circle alpha group we have multiple channels in that discord covering all
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this is why i'll be signing out and uh as i said for those of you listening to the recording
market talk will now be hosted at 3 30 p.m esc rather than 4 30 p.m esc i would like the show
to go on for a bit longer but i mean the the spaces are just acting way too buggy and i feel like we got
a good chunk of the conversation out and we're going to save some of this juice for tomorrow
should be an interesting day it's fomc so with that being said guys have a great day and uh
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Take care, guys.
Bye. I'm going to go ahead and get some more of the stuff I've been doing.
I'm going to go ahead and get some more of the stuff I've been doing.
I'm going to go ahead and get some more of the stuff I've been doing.
I'm going to go ahead and get some more of the stuff I've been doing. Thank you. This is the first time I was working on the The first time I was working on the
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