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Market Talk -Gamestop buying BTC!?100k retest for btc soon?!
Recorded: March 25, 2025 Duration: 1:19:51Space Recording
Short Summary
The discussion highlights potential growth in the cryptocurrency market, with specific mentions of Solana and KTA reaching new highs. GameStop's decision to add Bitcoin to its balance sheet reflects increasing adoption of cryptocurrencies by traditional businesses. There is also a focus on emerging trends, such as the attention on Bear chain and the role of Ethereum in DeFi, as well as broader market dynamics influenced by oil prices and inflation data.
Full Transcription
I see the crystal raindrops fall and the beauty of it all.
When the sun comes shining through to make those rainbows in my mind when I think of you sometime
and I want to spend some time with you just a too much.
We can't make it if we try to
Just the two of us
Building castle in the sky
Just the two of us
We look for love, no time for tears
Wasted water for all that is
And it don't make no flower
gold
Good things might become the those who wait, not those who wait too late.
We gotta go for all we know.
Just the two of us.
We can't make it if we try.
Just a two of us.
Just the two of us.
Filling them passes in the sky.
Just the two you and I.
I get a crystal ray drop
on the window down the hall and it becomes a morning do
Darling, when the morning comes and I see the morning, son, I want to be the one with you.
Just a tumor.
We can make it if we try.
Just a tumor.
Just a tumor.
Just a tumor.
Just a tumor.
Just a tumor.
Just a tumor.
You and I.
Just a two of us.
Oh, my God
John 4.
And I'm going to be a lot.
Chal and four.
The one.
I'm a...
I'm a little.
The other.
I'm a lot of the child.
Yeah.
I'm a good.
the time.
What's up, guys?
Welcome back.
Welcome, welcome.
Hope you're all doing okay.
Donnie, chill, Prometheus.
What's going on, guys?
Glad you guys...
are able to join me man there's a thunderstorm going on here on south florida and uh man when
these things really go crazy it is something else to be frank the thunderstorms here are absolutely wild but
And looking at markets today, the equity markets are getting close to their yearly open.
The NASDAQ is about 3% off of its yearly open.
S&P, about 1.5%.
I think if you flip that and starts going back into the positive, I think, at the very least,
majors like BTC and Seoul specifically could perhaps go for a yearly open retest or even a little bit above, right?
We have World Liberation Day with tariffs happening on the second.
Some stuff on chain like KTA made an all-time high.
I sold that thing at 14 cents and it is what it is, but man, Prometheus, once again, props to you, a damn near 20x and these markets is not...
easy it is definitely not easy and we're even seeing some things on chain on things like salana
right they made a meme coin from that one guy ashton hall you guys know the video i'm talking about
where he dunks his face into water and uh and cucumbers and all that stuff and he has his daily
routine and he's jumping into the pool and all that stuff and he's like
man you know what i think we got to add in about 10 000 right that coin peaked at 20 mil and it
it is the most viral video ever created in the history of the internet with like over a billion
in impressions uh he probably gigaprinted with those uh with those impressions and the engagement
on that platform he probably made like
like a hundred thousand dollars just off of that one post alone and i have people copying his
video but what i'm trying to get is you're seeing some memetics happen in this market and the
ceiling for these are a lot lower right if this even happened last summer you would have seen this coin
pop out of Billy if you guys remember Billy the dog that thing went from like
zero to 200 million in a day and then corrected and had one final blow off of 300
mill last summer so when you see tokens like that cap out significantly a lot lower
and you know you think to yourself what is going on I I you just got to see it for
what it is and a lot of the money
that was in this market has been unfortunately extracted.
But seeing sole green on the day,
while majors don't really do much, is positive.
If you want to see continuation on some of these on-chain trends,
things like a KTA, some other things on base that have been pumping,
AI is getting a much-needed relief balance after basically going down only after ARC
hit that all-time high of 700 mil.
And I feel as if...
A lot of the individuals that survived the range last summer can't really prospect the same thing happening again.
And we saw these ranges play out last year where we would hit just under 60K or the early 60K, 61, 62, and then we would pop all the way back up to 70K all within the same month.
within three to four weeks we would hit range low and range high and man max pain has really
outside of down only it's really always been just sideways chop sideways chop sideways chop
and a lot of these narratives that pop out have ceilings that are capped out a bit lower but i really
don't have much to say outside of that for the opening statement uh not much has happened since yesterday
outside of maybe like soul pumping a bit
And some little things here and there on chain.
Bear chain is getting attention once more.
That's probably a chain that does well, if Eath does well, to be honest.
Things like...
Other EVMs typically do well if ETH starts going up.
It's so funny to say that, right, because we haven't really seen much ETH outperformance this cycle.
Outside of that rally that we had from early Q4 of 23, where it rallied from 1,400, all the way to early 2024, where it topped out at 4K and
and he had other EVMs like Injective and many other EVMs that, actually, no, injective isn't an EVN, I'm sorry.
We actually had AVAX outperforming.
Gosh, I almost vomited in my mouth just saying that.
But we had soul outperforming as well.
And we also had Celestia, Dimension, a lot of the new VCL1 projects, essentially, right?
And after that, you didn't really see much of performance from these tokens.
It's really just things on chain.
So if you're bullish in Alt-L-1, unironically, you would need to see some ETH strength, right?
Gosh, I almost puked in my mouth there a little bit, too, by saying that.
I'm sorry Donnie.
I'm going to need you to inject me with some bullish, some bullish opium.
But, guys, before we officially get started, if y'all can do me one solid favor, I always
ask this of you right before we start the spaces.
Yes, and go ahead and show someone up to the space.
The best way you can do that is by clicking the spaces tab below.
And then once you open up the spaces tab, you'll see our profile pictures.
And right above that, right up on the nest, you'll see a little link.
that says x.com slash i slash spaces you guys can do two things for me and only takes a
only takes a few fractions of a of a second we guys and go ahead and smash up the like button
and smash up the repost and retweet button helps out with the algorithm helps bring more eyes
and ears of the brand and
and also helps bring in more people that just want to listen to some entertainment and voices of reasons during these choppy times.
I'm definitely not going to coddle anyone saying that I think Trump coin is bullish or
how I think it's bullish how the president of the United States can't even pump his own token by more than 25%.
But that's a discussion for another time.
But for now, I mean, let's have some fun on chain.
But I got Donnie up here.
I got chill.
I got Prometheus up here.
So we're going to do a we do best.
and uh random banter about all things markets for the next hour uh want to apologize for starting
up the spaces a bit late i know i uh i have been doing these spaces at 440 uh but unfortunately i was uh
preoccupied and I had to finish up the Discord call.
I should have spoken first.
I should have spoken first.
But yeah, I think I'm going to do that moving forward.
If you guys are in the Discord, you'll know.
Typically, I'll speak last and then like when there's five to ten minutes,
I'll be like, excuse me, I have to speak now.
Space is starting momentarily.
Yeah, I should have spoken first, but either way, we're here anyway.
Spaces are recorded.
Welcome back to another edition of Market Talk.
I'm your host, Wabi, and this is brought to you by Because Bitcoin.
So welcome back, everyone.
Welcome back.
Hope you're all well.
So I'm going to go ahead and kick it off over to Prometheus first, actually, man.
Prometheus, man, I'm sure you're on fire.
You're still holding your moonbags, uh,
from KTA and I think they have testing that tomorrow so congratulations on that
I've been pretty active in the equity markets as well what do you thinking man if uh you know we
get the NASDAQ and the S&P to flip green on the year where can you see some of these
prices heading for majors do you think
You know, we could potentially retest that scam Trump pump when he tweeted about XRP and Avax and an ETH.
If you remember those levels, I think the levels to watch out for is 94K on BTC,
sole at 180, and Eath at like 2,500.
That's like, I think those are the March highs actually, man.
But welcome back, brother.
I'm glad you can join me.
Yeah, brother.
Appreciate you.
All good.
Can hear me?
Yeah, sweet man.
Loud and loud and clear.
Yeah, I just, man, I'm.
I'm pretty excited. I'm not going to say, or I'm not going to lie for the next,
probably like month and a half. I kind of got my eyes on, on this time horizon that we're in right now.
For some form of leg up, you know, like you said, there's 94K on BTC.
Kind of watching out for the 150 to 160 region for Seoul. I think you really, really, really need to get above that level on Salana.
And if you don't, then there's probably some
some, you know, double digits in the near future for it.
But, you know, Ethereum is doing Ethereum things at 2000, and you have, you know, nice rally at equity markets.
And I'm kind of curious to see if we get...
If we kind of get the, I think it was the end of 20, towards the end of 23, where BTC was largely chopping sideways between 25K to 32K for the better part of four months.
And equities the entire time were just kind of relentlessly grinding higher.
I don't know if you guys remember that time.
And everybody was...
wondering, you know, what was going on with crypto?
What was going on with Bitcoin?
And why was there this lagging dynamic occurring between
Bitcoin and, you know, the broader equity markets.
And I am kind of curious if we get something of that kind of nature where you see equity markets potentially grind up higher.
And we see largely sideways price action in crypto.
And, you know, like you said, I do pay attention to a lot of the equity markets.
And if we do see, you know, the NASDAQ make new all-time highs and we see, you know, the spools and make new all-time highs, the charts that I'm most, you know, interested in are not, you know, the Costco's, are not, you know, the Home Depot's.
They're not the charts that have...
you know, gone essentially straight up in a straight line to the right for, you know, a good, you know, five years, some even 10 years, right?
The charts that I'm most interested in are the ones that have what I call the COVID crash and burn fractals, you know, the things that ran super hard during COVID.
and are now kind of, you know, and then based out all essentially last year and are now kind of starting to get their first,
you know, legs up off the floors, right?
We've been talking about in the Discord,
a lot of the Chinese stocks, Billy Baba.
I was looking at names such as Octa.
And then there was another one I was looking at earlier.
It was a cloud service provider.
Started with a T, like twirlie or something.
I can't remember, but those are the charts
that I think you really find your outsized returns in equity land.
You know, the equivalent of your kind of like,
midcap, your midcap fresh names in the,
in the crypto sector.
And speaking about fresh names,
I think that's what runs,
You know, even if BTC even sees only a complacency shoulder, I still think that you have
the fresher names run really, really, really hard regardless.
I think that the older names are still going to have a tough time.
It's been a trader's market.
It's been pick the best, hottest, freshest name off the press.
Pick the thing that has the most mind share.
Pick the thing that is chart looks good.
You know, that's just, that's what it has been.
It is, you know, you call it for what it is.
And there's some clear names off the bottom.
There are some clear names off the bottom.
And if we get some form of, you know, easing,
for, you know, from a monetary standpoint by the Fed and really start cutting rates and we enter quote unquote QE, then I don't, you know, everybody's so infatuated. And I think everybody's so infatuated and everybody's so stuck on.
what happened post-COVID with the ridiculous amount of money that was getting injected in the system
and the, you know, level of QE and ZERP that we were seeing, right?
It left such a, it was such a high that people still to this day are still so infatuated by what occurred as if that will
you know, will happen again in the near term.
And I see people talking about that.
And I just want to bring up this point that, yes, if we enter into some form of QE or we have an easing of the monetary conditions and rate cuts start happening to it.
It's near zero possibility that we ever enter into a COVID-style monetary condition to the levels that we saw.
You saw the Fed increase the circulating supply of United States dollars by 25% in the matter of months.
You saw rates go to zero.
And of course, being market participants, we love that.
Like that was crazy, but, and it was awesome.
But at the same time, I think it's important to, you know, have a realistic perspective
of what the future holds.
And when we get, you know, potential QE rate cuts and like I said, in easing and monetary
conditions, you will have, you know, a lot of these.
low caps, midcaps, you know, shit coins, all coins do well. But I don't think you see,
you know, the parabola that we saw across the board in names and in coins that were,
you know, we call them zombie companies, you know, they were just shells of companies and they didn't
provide...
you know, any meaningful services, didn't generate any revenue or cash flow.
And so I'm really, you know, still in the camp that
You've got to still be a trader.
You still got to be, you know, realistic and you still got to be aware of what's hot.
Like what's hot on the street?
What is everybody talking about?
What charts look good?
Because that's going to show you and that's going to tell you where liquidity is going.
I do think that heading into the summer from, you know, April 2nd that...
we get some form of relief in markets across the board,
barring that Trump doesn't, you know,
you know, blow something up per se,
metaphorically.
I think that...
Largely, you know, volatility is probably overstated in the markets.
And you probably see, I'm leaning in the camp that you see some form of compression into the beginning of next year.
And we have a window where risk on assets can perform potentially very well.
and we will likely see that.
I think you still see, you know,
alts have, you know,
they're another, you know,
just called a mini,
mini cycle,
mini bowl run.
Because that's what it's been,
right?
We've been talking about that.
It's been just one,
you know,
it's been kind of like,
specialize in a way. I don't know if this is the right word I'm looking for, but it's been very
concentrated in what's pumped. And I think you get that again. I think you actually get that from
here until probably, you know, mid-May, June, and then you probably get year-end, you know,
another year-end, you know, alt-coin bonanza. But what I have been eyeing too from, you know, kind of
out of, it's kind of out of pocket would be a feeding frenzy. And I talked about it, I think,
on the previous spaces, but where you get, you know, some ultimate form of regulatory clarity
and you have essentially liquidity rushing in faster than anybody thought what possible,
what could be possible, and bringing...
you know, some pretty wild times.
I think there's a potential for that,
and I'm kind of still building my thesis on that.
But that's something that I've been eyeing,
and I still think it's, like I said,
a stock pickers market.
I still think you've got to be very selective.
But, you know, I'm eyeing those names that have, you know,
still performed, performed very well in the equity land.
They kind of have that COVID crash and burn fractal
and are now, you know, getting their initial leg up off the floors.
And keep my eyes on what's fresh encrypted.
because that's what our space is all about, right?
What's new, what's hot?
So that being said, I'll pass it on over to the guys.
Appreciate you guys having me up.
Donnie, what's going on, brother?
Man, what are you expecting after April 2nd, that liberation day?
It's kind of like a toss-up.
But as we were discussing yesterday, I feel like a lot of the momentum for the bears,
at least on the short term, is kind of exhausted itself,
especially when you look at the equity markets, you look at some stocks,
Like Tesla up 25% over the last week, over the past five training sessions where Tim Waltz last week pretty much flooded the exact bottom.
I think we were on the space saying shout out to Tim Waltz.
for that like it was pretty much right at the pico lows where uh where tim walt said that last
last tuesday actually was the low for tesla and that's when tim waltz went on stage and he's like
oh i bought tesla stock and it's down and i'm so happy and you know all those democrats were like
clapping and cheering and and all that sort of stuff kind of crazy with what's going on with
tussla man you see all these videos online we're like
like people are blowing them up and they're setting them on fire and all that stuff whether as like last cycle it was all about oh renewable energy buy a tesla buy a tesla and now it's like half of the world hates tesla and more so like at the bottom of the stock right i think that would actually be a hated rally like for tesla to rally back to the yearly open
like 379 380 something like that but what are your what are your thoughts man now that we're
uh about a week away from april second i know i know that's
That's a month that you've been talking about since like February, brother.
But glad you were able to come on, man.
And apologies for hitting you up so late, man.
I thought today was going to be the Boys Club Spaces thing.
But I think Max is still in California on vacation and stuff.
But yeah, man, feel free to chime in, bro.
Yeah, no problem, bro.
Yeah, thanks for having me up.
So yeah, regarding April 2nd, I don't think it's going to be that much of like, I don't know, volatile event.
I feel like after that date,
The main thing that I want to get out of that date is basically to have a window where Trump doesn't really mention anything to do with these tariffs.
And we can have like constructive data come out and also then price action following that data over April.
Right.
So that's kind of, you know, you can't predict if he's going to keep going on about these tariffs and stuff.
But with all the news that's been coming out about him kind of reducing the severity of these tariffs and whatnot, right?
it kind of indicates that maybe some deals are being done behind the scenes.
And maybe we do get this window of opportunity to have,
you know,
potentially a recovery in the markets and a recovery great enough to,
you know,
maybe go back to all-time highs, right?
Because the whole point,
which I saw in this leading up to this tariff date was that all of this uncertainty
and Trump going wild online and stuff did impact markets negatively.
And we know that it had a, we know that it had an effect on, you know, numbers potentially like inflation, right? And this is why I keep saying it kind of feels like their actions were to kind of bring these numbers that the Fed look at to a.
to a level where they have this window where they can pivot into some rate cuts before that debt maturity deadline in July, right?
And we have these back-to-back meetings May, June, July to where the Fed has this flexibility and this window to be able to get those cuts in so they can refinance that debt at lower costs, lower borrowing costs.
So now that they're toning it down with the tariffs, it feels like, okay, they've done what they wanted to do.
And from this point on, there's no point trying to, you know, quote unquote negatively impact the markets because their goal is kind of achieved here.
Right. If the Fed is using lagging data and that data is about to come in decent, there's no point, you know, continuing to crash the market.
That's kind of how I'm viewing it with this whole like tariff situation now.
Now that they're backing off like a little bit on the back foot on those.
So, you know, because if they kept going and they made it worse and, you know, they kept going wild about it, it would have probably tanked the market even further. So they kind of had the like sweet spot. They've hit the sweet spot of that and, you know, we'll see after this date if they quiet and down. And if they do.
then I believe that, you know, first of all, it's going to make it a lot easier for the Fed to do that pivot when this data does start hitting in the right direction if it does, right?
And that's why April is so important to me because that's going to tell us if things are headed in the right direction for the Fed to pivot.
And the prices are going to tell you that, right?
If stuff is hitting in the right direction, the market's going to start pricing in green candles, going into those Fed meetings.
May, June, and July, wherever they may do that pivot, which I believe it should start in May
with QT fully ending in May and some guidance towards cuts, if not an actual cut on May 7th.
So again, we won't know until April incrementally comes out, but also that's why the setup is so great, right?
As the data incrementally comes out, people are forced to, you know, buy higher and higher.
And, you know, you get that typical renewed optimism, FOMO, euphoria rally to come out of this.
So, yeah, man, just waiting for that April 2nd day to be out the way.
so that it can be behind us and we can focus on, you know, essentially like important economic data
and then the markets alone, right? Don't have to deal with all these shenanigans anymore.
So hopefully that's how they've played it, how I just explained there.
And yeah, we'll see what happens over April.
But looking at like the charts right now, it's looking very constructive across the board and actually quite bullish on
equities here, right? You've had this supply block on the SMP from 5.660 to 5.780. And you're at the top of that supply block right now and you've left a gap below, you know, indicating a strong bounce from that bottom and wanting to, you know, fully break through the supply block. The next sort of area is around 5.9K before April 2nd, right? If there's going to be any derisking, it'll happen around that date, if not on the date. So you've got about,
Well, you've got the rest of this week and two days, or at least Monday open next week,
to start closing some daily candles between 5.8 and 5.9K, if not slightly higher on the SMP.
And we know that BTC has been pretty correlated to the SMP, especially as of recent, right?
If the SMP is having a green day, it just, you know, you see it on Bitcoin's chart.
straight away kind of thing.
So if you do get that on the SMP and you start getting these daily closes near 5.9K,
I think BTC is going to go test 92K.
And potentially that 79K liquidity that I was talking about yesterday could be safe, right?
Because the pullbacks from those higher levels will be less significant than if you start pulling back where we are right now locally.
So hopefully the charts stay strong going into April.
And then from there, you know, literally in the first week of April, you have employment and labor market data.
And then you've got ISM data, which is also important for the business cycle.
And, you know, just like...
the confidence of these businesses moving forward, if that's starting to come out a little bit more
positive or, you know, even if it just stays flat, even slightly weak is fine, as long as it's
not extreme on either end. Like if it's super good, then that's like not really indicating that
the Fed might pivot. If it's super bad, it's meaning that, oh shit, the Fed might have to intervene and
that will cause, you know, fear in the markets if they're having to act out of necessity rather
than like cruising into it.
So yeah, you've got important stuff on the first week of April and then the second week and the subsequent week and to close the month off.
So, you know, just want to get through each of these points and see how prices are reacting to this and the overall market sentiment.
But yeah, Bitcoin's chart, if it can maintain above 85K going into April 2nd and after and this data starts coming in the positive direction again,
I think you're going to get to this 99.5k level pretty quickly.
If I had to guess, it would be in the second week of April,
and that's kind of like the upside squeeze level for BTC.
If you start, you know, if you break 99.5,
I think you're easily headed to the old time high of 1.9K
going into that May meeting, right?
So we'll see how it plays out.
I've also got a chart with Ethan Pepe.
This is like getting a little bit,
more constructive from the low.
I shared it up in the nest.
It's just ETH on top and Pepe on bottom.
You've had this PO3 build up on ETH for some time now.
You've had this big range that we've spoken about from 4K to 2K,
where we kind of dubbed it.
like a BlackRock or an ETF issuer reaccumulation range and all of the wicks to the downside
where like massive liquidity events, massive capitulation,
they've had a bunch of time to reaccumulate since that ETF now in July.
And, you know, we actually lost the range low, but it's set up this perfect PO3 setup from a technical perspective alone, right?
You've had that massive range with false starts and then, you know, capitulation bottoms.
And now you actually lost that low, which caused, you know, mass, mass freakouts and like, you know, capitulation, fear, all this kind of stuff.
to where you're almost getting acceptance back in the range.
And we've just laid out that April can be constructive for equities and BTC.
Therefore, ETH will get dragged up with it and start getting acceptance back in this range.
If you break that first, like, key level, 2.2K, I think it's at.
Ether's kind of confirming the beginnings of this chart pattern, which is basically just,
again, like that BTC setup, an incremental formal formal to the key reclaim level, which is around
2.8K, it's kind of like the same level on BTC as 99.5K, right? You get there and you start getting
above, you're likely headed to squeeze a lot harder than just that 99.5K level, right? A lot of liquidity
above, a lot of shorts get...
you know, taken off of their orders and people flip long, things like that.
That's kind of how this technical setup works.
And then you look at Pepe below, you came into like the last point of demand while like trickling down leaving liquidity above, again for a squeeze.
You know, you tap that demand zone and you're getting, you know, price grinding a little bit higher.
So if you get continuation here in the beginning, you know, a couple of weeks of April,
And ETH breaks that 2.2K level, I think Pepe is going to start squeezing to that key reclaim level, right?
And even if it's not like a squeeze straight back to the highs, it's very constructive for the chart going into May, June, July, wherever things may start to pick up for crypto, right?
You can start confirming a bottom.
rather quickly and price can build up you know over four to eight weeks for example to get you primed
to break to new all-time highs whenever the Fed does pivot because that's going to be the trigger
for this you know next phase of the market so everything to me that I'm looking at looks constructive
it's just we haven't had the confirmations yet so we have to wait for all of April in
incrementally to build that case that we are actually going to break to all-time highs, right?
And all of that incremental buildup is also going to give us, you know, the answer to,
are we going to get continuation of the leading indicators to see how high prices can actually go,
is this going to be a complacency shoulder?
Is it going to be a double top or is it going to be a break into price discovery?
Right. You need DXY to roll over.
You need Global M2 to continue the uptrend.
Because they're leading indicators, if they continue these trends, then you know that the liquidity coming into the market is increasing as you're going higher and getting to these key levels on the chart.
So, you know, global liquidity has been rising, but you're at that key point where...
it's gone up enough for us to get a bounce.
It's just you need that continuation to be able to verify,
okay, we're actually going into like a sustained up trend for months.
And you don't want those trends to suddenly do a U-turn, right?
You want DXY to lose 100 and continue the downtrend from there.
Hopefully that happens by like May or June.
And yeah, then you know you're going to price discovery and stuff.
You want to see like right now you want to be watching the People's Bank of China's balance sheet and also the Fed balance sheet.
If you start seeing that start to turn positive in a liquidity sense.
along with, you know, well, that's obviously going to be seen on the DXY chart as well.
You're going to see more of a rollover there.
If you get like those three things headed in the right direction over the next, I would say,
one to three months, then 100% you're going into price discovery across the board.
So, you know, we're going to have our answer over this next month or so.
So yeah, hope all that made sense.
I tried to break it down without showing any charts, which is a bit hard.
Hey man, what are your thoughts on this
headline with GameStop adding
BTC onto their balance sheet?
I haven't even read it.
Yeah. Damn, dude. KTA is fucking melting face right now.
Yeah, you got to pay attention to it, bro. I'm telling you, it's top 100.
Dude. Lobby you're a jean, man.
I am a jeep because it pays to be a team.
It's a top 100 project, my boy. I gave it to you so early.
Yeah, that's...
I have no shame inside.
You made money.
That's all that matters, right?
That's all that matters.
Yeah, and that's the thing.
And that's the thing, right?
That's the thing.
But damn,
Prometheus, brother, dude,
welcome to BB, bro.
That was within your first month, too, man.
Jeez, bro.
Yeah.
And like everyone is just watching their own narrative, trying to force their own will
onto the market.
The market needs to do this.
The market needs to do that.
Market doesn't owe you a thing, man.
The market just demands your attention.
And this is a fair launched project at that, right?
Like a lot of people want to talk about fair launch this, fair launch that.
Dude, the fact is, bro, a lot, most fair launch projects like,
Those contracts are usually sniped, like really, really, really, really, really early, really early, really early early early early early early early early.
And it's usually coordinated within a telegram group chat before it even launches.
But this thing has been in a steady uptrend since it launched, man.
And like, it's really only had like that huge parabolic rise, like once.
And that was from...
that was like in mid-march it had that huge parabolic rise it consolidated for a few days and now it's just
now it's just breaking out man my goodness this thing reminds me of ray ray on base when the discord
traded that i got in at like 6mell or something like that and it ended up going to like 140 but
of course taking profits along the way always but um dude what are your thoughts on this um like
game stop adding btc onto their balance sheet um
You know, it could cause some speculation, right?
Like, oh, our other low-cap tech stock's going to be adding BTC, they're going to be buying BTC.
And I don't know, man, with GME, it's been sort of a sci-op since that blowoff top in January of 2021, right?
If you guys remember in Q2, when Roaring Kitty came back, GameStop stock was going up like crazy.
Yeah.
A lot of people thought like, oh shit, we're so back.
I fell into that trap.
And now it's like I'm just forced to be a skeptic when it comes to these things, man.
Especially with like World Liberty Fire.
Like, dude, Trump buying your token is not really bullish.
It's just not because who's the notional buyer after that, right?
And it's all donor money too.
It's like these projects, they pay for partnerships and they pay for tweets and they pay for posts.
And if they're actually buying it and it's actually bullish, why isn't that reflective in the chart?
Right.
It's just kind of been down only with all the all coins he's been buying.
So I'm not really too sure what to add with a company that's like on the brink of just getting decimated and going out of business because of, because video game sales are mostly done online now, right?
Right.
And most people would rather just like download the game rather than actually going in person and all that stuff.
But what are your thoughts on that?
Donnie.
Like GameStop.
We're trying to grab onto every single narrative at this point, man.
I mean, like, because things are happening, they're going to make the news, right?
Like, it can't just go unnoticed.
So it's just another point of news.
How significant is it?
I don't know.
It's just like, again, you have to look at the cycle as...
kind of this global liquidity cycle.
You keep hearing it a thousand times over, but like it's just true.
News is not going to make the price move unless it's some groundbreaking catalyst, right?
Like we had with the ETF, that was super big for Bitcoin.
You actually broke out of your range.
before gold did, right?
You front ran gold to new highs because the catalyst was so strong, right?
And then, you know, from there, you got slapped into a range, whatever,
and you couldn't break out until liquidity conditions were better.
So I feel like all this news, all this positive stuff,
it will catch up and it will be resurfaced.
just when liquidity conditions are primed for risk markets, right?
You have to wait for this Fed pivot before anything is going to have any positive impact on the chart.
And it's probably not even going to be the news that's like impacting the chart.
It's strictly just the liquidity conditions, right?
It just fuels like attention to the space more than anything.
Because like this news is coming out, right?
But if prices aren't already moving up, then
then there's just no attention in the space anyway to have this news impact the chart in any sort of way.
But if prices are already super green and you're having a bunch of these catalysts being dropped left and right,
then the attention is super high in the space already and then it can make some sort of impact.
But right now it's like a ghost town here because prices aren't going up yet.
And it's not that big like GameStop buying, you know, BTC.
It's not like anything groundbreaking, right?
We've had, you know, many news headlines of like BlackRock doing massive purchases of BTC, right?
That's going to be the thing that, you know, gets more attention than like GameStop buying some BTC.
But it is good.
Like, you know, it creates a little bit of a ripple effect maybe for other companies and stuff.
Chill, what's going on, brother?
What are your thoughts?
Yeah.
What's up guys? Hey, appreciate you having me back again.
No, I mean, really, really loving, you know, Donnie's take as usual.
But, I mean, from an on-chain perspective, man, I think it's all about positioning.
You know, don't get too excited.
We saw some higher prices this week like, you know, one of...
One of the positions we were talking about a lot is Fartcoin.
Fark coins already, it's up a lot off the lows, I think, 150 plus percent or something like that.
So we see that there's an interest in risk taking in the market.
There's volume, obviously, on Solana.
It's just a matter of clearing this April 2nd date to...
So that we get confirmation, whether it's bullish or bearish,
we get confirmation on exactly what the effects of the,
what the,
we'll have confirmation on what effect tariffs will have on markets
and what that will mean for, you know,
us trading on chain or whether you're trading leverage
or whatever part of the market you're in,
the market as a whole will get the answers
or at least some answers that they'll need.
I feel like that will be enough
to keep volume up at this point like I'm starting to get the feeling that you know you know I'm seeing how Trump is is softening on his stance on tariffs and he's kind of backing down a little bit in some of his latest remarks so I'm still watching I mean anything could happen at the end of the day like it's Trump so we absolutely don't know what this guy is going to do or what he's going to say
But either way, I do feel like we'll get some sort of indication as to what comes next.
Everything else is pointing in the right direction, right?
Donnie's covered a lot of that.
The biggest thing that I've noticed is the oil prices going down.
That's good for inflation going down.
Truflation also is having, I think, the last time I checked,
they had inflation at like 1.1. Was it 3% or 5% or something like that?
So between oil and I use truflation as sort of a leading indicator,
you know, we should be getting good prints here.
So after...
After April 2nd, you know, whether, again, whether bullish or bearish, if it's bearish, that means good entries.
If it's bullish, that means upward.
That means we go up.
So from a positioning standpoint on chain, it's just a matter of being prepared for both scenarios, right?
So for me, that meant, okay, well, let's start DCing.
uh lay some seeds and i've been talking about that a lot on the timeline um and you know now it's
just a matter of waiting i just literally posted this today just we're already in position now
we just wait for what happens um after what what what trump says and what the market does what prices
do that will tell us what we do next um a lot of people you know they're jumping the gun here i feel
like um
By taking like way too much way too much risk up front like you see a lot of this stuff with
For example routine
You know that was you know you know if you bought that at like 200k you're you're up
You know you're up quite a bit but if you're buying that at 10 million market cap you're buying that at these these higher prices when
You know again volume has already picked up you're coming in late and
Fartcoin is already 150% off the bottom.
You're coming in late.
This is the time to say, okay, well, let's just watch to see what prices do.
More than likely, these things are not more than likely,
but these things do have a chance of going higher,
things like Fartcoin especially.
So maybe you DCA by getting some exposure and get some exposure to the market.
But at the same time, you're not just panic buying the highs.
And then, you know, what if April 2nd comes and we and we get something unexpected out of Trump, right? We always have to
be prepared for, for, uh, whatever scenario can come. So that's really how I'm thinking about
markets. Man, I think right now we have exactly what we, we need, uh, to justify being positioned,
uh, getting some exposure into some quality assets. And, you know, at this point, it's just a matter
of waiting on, you know, what is Trump going to do? And in the meantime, uh, just taking that time to,
to, to, uh,
Just get better.
I mean, if you come in, you have a system and there's something that you, like me,
it's something I do every single day.
You know, it's just about tightening my process, you know, continuing to just make the most
out of the time that I am spending in the market.
Yeah.
Like on chain, you have a lot of people that, you know, encourage this, you know, 16 hour a day screen time. And I don't subscribe to that. You know, a lot of people, you know this with me as well. Wabi, you know that I take vacations. I have a vacation coming up on Wednesday. And I'll be back next, next Monday. You know,
Like, you don't need to be 24 hours attached to the market.
You just have to have a process that you can repeat sustainably for a long time.
Because when you have Q1s like what we had, if you were spending 16 hours a day, you'd be burnt out.
And now when we're going into April, when we're going into May, you would have exhausted everything that you have, all the free capital that you have trying to degen on chain. And now you have nothing to, you have nothing to help you with exposing yourself to the market as we as we go up.
You know, right now is, I think there's still a lot of, you know, there's still a lot of good chart.
There's a lot of good charts, a lot of, a lot of coiling activity.
And I was talking to a friend yesterday.
And it's, it, there's this buzz in the market now.
There's like life now.
Whereas over the last few weeks, you know, especially in February, it's like all, everything was dead.
No one was tweeting.
No one was talking.
No one was messaging.
Yeah.
but now you kind of feel like this life has been brought back to the market,
but it's just a matter of waiting to see confirmation like Donnie was saying earlier
on a lot of these things.
And if you would have spent the last,
few months, weeks and months, you know, bettering your process, you'd be much more prepared for
the time that we have now. You know, it's not always, you know, just trading, trading,
trading, trading every single day, buying something every single day. Sometimes you really just
need to slow down and let the market come to you. And I think this is one of those times
especially if you took the last, you know, days and weeks to, you know, start laying some seeds and, and positioning yourself.
Because who knows, again, what Trump will say or do on April 2nd.
But we know he's softening, he's softening his stance.
We know inflation is coming down.
We know the DXY is going.
uh in the right direction my biggest my biggest thing that i'll be looking for here and it's i feel
like it's i'm almost about to get it i'm long i'm about to be long eath man like people will
stop disrespecting heath so i'm going to jump off for brisno man i know i know i know i know i know
i've been bullish on eath and it's just gone down and down only
but man man i especially when you see guys like fidelity getting involved in the game black rock
building on ethereum when you hear of the of um scott besson wanting to uh you know make
use stable coins to make uh the u s dollar the most dominant currency or at least help it hold that position in
in the financial markets globally, you know, stable coins.
I mean, that's all like there's going to be so much built on Ethereum.
That's the home of B5.
Yes, will things happen on Solana for sure?
Will things happen on Sonic?
For sure.
But at the end of the day, you know, at its core, these bigger institutions and players that have no idea what crypto is and they're just venturing in, they're going to follow the same process that everyone else has followed.
Right.
Right. They're going to look at Bitcoin. Then they're going to look at Ethereum and then they'll look at everything else. But they have to look at ETH first. And they have and they're building. But they're not done with it just yet. They're just now tapping into the tech side and what they can do on ETH. And so, you know, it's to me, it's no...
It's no surprise that Eath is, is down and down only.
I mean, if, if this is where, you know, big money will be.
Definitely no surprise, brother.
No surprise there.
But, but I would be surprised if we weren't at all-time highs by the end of this year.
I would definitely be surprised.
In fact, I'll go as, I'll go as much as to say, I'd be surprised if we're not back at 4K,
during let's say the end of the summer.
I'll say the end of the summer.
Yeah, if the Fed pivots to easing of some sort,
whether it's cuts and or some form of stealth QE that we can pick up on,
and if doesn't perform well from that moment,
then I would think something is wrong.
But up until that point, don't really care.
That's a pretty clean PO3 setup.
Yeah.
So, like, why would I buy ETH instead of something like Avax?
Well, you're going down the risk curve.
Oh, man.
Yeah.
Hang tight.
Hang tight.
Cool your jets and hang tight.
Look, I genuinely cannot express any bullish sentiment on Eith.
The community, just the things built on ETH, it just makes me want to puke, to be honest.
When I compare it to other things that have trended.
Um, so
BlackRock flips the switch
Wabi, then you might change it.
If the price is up,
I, I hope so, man.
But the thing is, like, when
Heath rallies, right?
And when things on Etherally,
Avax goes hard, man.
Uh, extremely hard.
And many
all coins have been
put in a prospect of the
crypto quote unquote
mag seven, right?
Yeah.
So essentially, you're going to have in the next 10 to 15 years
a select batch of all coins outside of BTC, Ethan's soul,
to join some sort of ETH of sorts, right, as the MAG 7.
One of them has been AVAX, one of them has been chain link.
And the thing is, like, when ETH rallies,
there are other ecosystems that usually tend to do better with more opportunities, but...
for eth itself right and i've gone over this um within the uh discord calls in our in our inner
circle but anytime eth gets to 4k right anytime we have a rally towards 4k it's always because of
some ridiculous meme coin frenzy last year in q1 it was because of pepe then in q2 it was because of that
base thing or whatever
And then in Q4, it was Robin Hood buying Pepe.
So it's always because of one token.
And when you have only one narrative going on in a chain, it limits its upside.
In 21, we had defy, right?
17, we had ICOs.
And I'm still having a difficult time to even be remotely bullish on ETH at the slightest just because of a dinosaur car called Larry Finkelstein talking about ETH on CNBC.
Like, the flows for the ETH are practically dead at this point.
It's been almost nine months since the launch of the ETF.
And prices haven't even rallied 20% off of the ETF going live in July.
And we've had so many bullish catalysts.
We had the Trump pump.
Heath failed to go to 4,100.
That's disgusting.
We had meme coins on ETH being listed on top exchanges.
It couldn't even rally above 4,100.
You have Vitalik doing these weird dances at conferences wearing a monkey suit and a cat t-shirt.
Like, I just can't be bullish at the slightest.
For ETH in any regard, I have a rough time, extremely rough time.
But like, yeah, I've said this before, Donnie.
I think, like, IWM going into Price Discovery, then yeah, dude.
Then like ETH to like 5K.
Yeah, but what's the trigger?
What's the trigger for IWM?
I would say probably rates going down to 2%.
I think that's the magical number.
If we go by truflation, I think, Donnie, if we get truflation to like 1%,
because inflation under Trump is, I mean, dude, the last cycle...
I hate seeing last cycle, by the way.
But towards the end of last cycle, I'm sorry, the beginning of last cycle, right, December 2018, right?
Through 2018, 2019 and all that stuff, inflation, right?
CPI was like under 1%.
Right.
So I think you could actually have rates going back down to 2% or even 1.5%.
And I think having rates at that point,
And then, of course, like, the cost of borrow capital for these low-cap companies are effectively pretty much at zero.
Then, yeah, IWM is going to go crazy.
And some also go crazy.
I just still don't.
I just can't see this cycle having an old season, like previous cycles, because there's no 3AC.
There's no...
Alameda like there's no dirt there is no young folks doing fraud buying up all coins using
customer funds and anything like that it's just like it's just been a bunch of people on
chain jeeting their bag at like 50 mil 200 mil 300 mil and that's it like nobody actually
believes in something and it's all just like a Fugazi I think with alts I truly do believe so
I'll agree with you because we all know that most of the tokens in the space, they're not needed.
And I'm sure at some point there's going to be a purge of a lot of these things.
But one of the things I refuse to believe that will go away is Eath.
There's literally just too much money in Defi, in...
And TVL across the chain, there's just too much value on ETH.
you know, for it just to go away.
And at the same time, what are the basic principles for trading is literally buying low and selling high.
So from a trader standpoint, obviously this is a pretty good spot to be in and to be long-eath.
But even from a fundamental perspective, like you're looking at Ethereum.
And it's, yes, it has been lagging.
the cycle but i mean some of the biggest players are building on on chain like i don't really know
how better like if you told somebody that was in the that was in the that was an eth at the
beginning that you know fidelity or black rock was going to be building on the chain and
you know that that trump the president would be also active on chain and even holding his bitcoin on
ethereum
I mean, I don't, yes, maybe, you know, Trump buying isn't necessarily the most bullish thing to have happened to ETH.
But at the same time, like, there's just, if there's going to be an adoption of this industry, it's going to start.
It's going to go through that same flow chart that we all we see all the time.
It's going to start with Bitcoin and it did with the ETS and adoption.
And then it's going to go to ETH.
And then it will go to everything else, but everything will go through Eath at some point.
And so if we're at the lowest point, we're literally at the same point we were back in, what was it, like February of 21.
So at this point.
It's there's just we're already we're in such a deep value territory.
I just don't see a reason to be like max bearish on Eath and at the same time if a lot of people don't like that trade.
I'm actually more comfortable in it.
Yeah, I think honestly you could just look for a technical setup and until you get some form of Fed pivot,
I wouldn't even speculate bearish or bullish like literally get a technical setup for a long.
And if you get that pivot and it still performs shit relative to BTC and the broader market, then you can forget about it.
There's something wrong with it.
But until that point, literally look for a technical setup and just take it if it's solid and just wait.
Because like, you know, BTC right now.
My targets for a summer rally if we get it, right, are somewhere around 138 to 182.
182 being like cycle top risk and like upwards of like 150-ish, I would say that still could potentially not be the cycle top.
Too many factors to discuss, but just take those targets, 138 to let's say 150.
150 is like a 2x, under 2x for BTC from current level, right?
It would be like a 2x right now would be like 170-ish.
So from a USD standpoint,
ether is actually a better trade if you take it around 1900, 2K even,
to get back to even 4K, let's say, that PO3 that I posted,
you're still going to make more of a percentage gain than BTC
if like, you know, from a trader's perspective.
So it is actually, you know, what's it called?
a good trade, like a risk-reward setup, a good RR setup, I would say, over BTC.
And I'll agree with you as well, Donnie.
Like if we're getting all the signals, right, Fed is pivoting, QE is back.
And like on the macro side, everything has worked itself out.
And still, ETH is lagging.
Then I'll say, okay, fundamentally something is wrong.
Something is, something's just not clicking here.
Something's not right.
But at this point, we still haven't really seen, um,
a setup that was, you know, just kind of clear skies for all markets. I mean, there's always been,
you know, we could, you can maybe say that after the election, maybe that, you know, that November,
December period when we had that risk on season, that was a good time. But that wasn't,
like, you know, clear skies. You know, we still had some things that we needed to work through.
Now we're getting to the point where inflation is going to be going back to the, to the Fed's target,
or at least close to it. And we're getting a lot of these other things that are lining up as well,
like the like officially ending QT and, and getting closer to QE and all those other things.
So there's just so much ahead of us.
that can lift markets up that even without anything,
ETH would still pump alongside Bitcoin.
But even more so when you consider who's getting involved
and how they're getting involved,
I think that's just what makes this, you know,
just like Donnie was saying, just good R&R right here,
you know, on a good setup.
So I'm really, I know I haven't talked about ETH in a while.
you know, I was kind of bullish, but then it broke structure.
And I was like, okay, let me just see where this settles.
And when we got that bottom at 1700 or 1750, whatever it was, you know, I'm looking and it's like,
This seems like it's the early parts of a bottom for ETH.
And that's just because of just looking at the,
just looking at where it's,
it's been settling out these last call it like two or three weeks.
So let's see.
I mean, but here is,
I am Max bullish on ETH.
And, you know,
I love the fact that I'm,
you know,
a lot of people are agreeing with me on this one.
I love that.
Yeah, I think if you just look at the history of IWM as well, until you have like that euphoric landscape in risk markets, you're not going to get like a sustained price discovery uptrend.
You can say the same thing for ETH.
So that's why I'm saying until you have that in the market, aka a decent Fed pivot potentially over summer or whenever it happens, you just can't rule it out.
And like from a risk reward perspective.
It's just, I feel like a more percentage gain than BTC.
If you're betting on crypto going up here, you've got more of a percentage gain on
ETH than you do on BTC, I think, from here.
Man, all right, you know what I'm going to do?
You know what I'm going to start doing?
I'm going to start waking up and then get a big glass bowl, pour some ice, and pour
some orange juice, and then dunk my face in it.
That way, I don't suffer from a lack of concentration.
All right.
Maybe I'm not seeing something that you guys are seeing.
But Matt, let me ask you something.
What do you think of Eath, bro?
That question, that question alone.
That question alone.
That question alone.
Hey, you know what's crazy?
You know what's crazy, man?
Matt did a great job.
Matt did a great job.
Before I went to the Midwest for like a month,
we had a space, if you guys remember,
like the first few days of December,
we were talking about ETH,
and Matt just went on a tear saying like,
ETH is cooked.
It's probably not going to make an all-time high.
ETHBTC is generationally topped.
He went on a pretty good tangent.
I'm like, damn.
Yeah.
Maybe he's making sense, man.
If you remember that, Donnie?
You guys were discussing the ETS and all that stuff.
And Matt was saying it's already been eight months after the having.
Eight months after the having in 2020, ETH was going crazy.
Eight months after the having in 2016, Eth was going ballistic.
And, man, you know,
sometimes it's good.
Sometimes it's good to have these discussions.
I feel like...
A lot of times when we talk about crypto, like we get so trapped in a narrative and like in an echo chamber and all that stuff.
And like I feel like a huge part of developing your edge is talking to as many people as possible that like have been in this market for longer than you have and have seen stuff.
Just in general, but Matt, what do you think of eat, bro?
I think it needs something, I think it needs a new catalyst.
You know, I think it needs something to shake things up because, look, I'm not an expert in on-chain and where devs are moving.
But I like to pay attention.
And, you know, I like to watch with all of y'all.
And it seems like all the activity gets built and made over on Solana or Suey.
And I know I triggered you, Wabi, but yes, base too.
And until there's a new catalyst, until that activity, that volume comes back to Eath,
I don't know, it's really betting, you know, betting against the, the,
The trend. Sure. Something could happen, but I think you need a change in trend. You need a new catalyst. I remember we were talking Wabi that every single time there's a new...
environment or a new faster or cheaper L1 or space to create that hurts ETH because okay you know
why would you pay more to build it on ETH or to transact on ETH when well we can do the same thing
over on Solana we can do the same thing over on sui or or a coin basis base environment
Um, optionality, um, splits the pie into more and more slices.
And, um, I don't mean that it can't revert and I don't mean it can't change and
that it'll always be that way. But that's kind of how this cycle has been playing out.
And again, I'll, I'll confess, I'm not an on-chain expert enough to, I'm not in the weeds
enough to know.
what that catalyst or change would be.
But we have to admit that, like, okay, it's been not one, not two, but three plus years.
And this is the kind of the state of play.
So I think I was posting about this earlier because I think it was Arthur Hayes going viral saying that, you know, he sees Eath going to 5K before Solana ever gets the 300.
Yeah.
And to me, like, boy, you'd be a fool to wait for 5K. E.
You know, it keeps getting rejected at 4K, not once, not twice, not three times, but almost four times if you zoom out.
If you wake up, if you wake up tomorrow or any day in 2025, and Price is closing in on 4K, how would you not?
sell it all and then wait to see if there's an actual breakout.
Yeah, you're right. In the short term, ETH can absolutely outperform Bitcoin. I agree. But
medium term and long term, you know, that ETH BTC chart is truly undeniable. That's rough.
So again, I'll circle back. I'll put a bow on it. I think ETH needs some sort of new catalyst.
Well, there's two people requesting in the audience.
I'm kind of terrified of bringing up speakers, honestly,
but if anyone wants to come on up, ask any questions, feel free to do so.
I'll open up the space for another five minutes here.
This is usually the time that we start wrapping up.
Yeah, I'll bring up Cree, blessed by Cree.
Let's see.
Yeah.
I think there's some connection issues going on.
It's not letting me bring people up.
It's fine.
Donnie, is anything that you want to say to what Matt said?
I really don't have anything to say about ETH, to be honest, outside of what I said.
But it does need, like, a new narrative.
And I feel like Eith has been such a discussion on C.T.
That it's like...
I just feel like I'd be wasting a lot of bandwidth just talking about the notion of, oh, like, it can't be the end of the cycle if ETH isn't in massive price discovery.
It definitely can't be the end of the cycle if X, Y, and Z haven't happened with Eith.
And it's like...
It's an aged assets 10 years old now, and as assets mature, sometimes they take a new form and just look at tech companies.
Like, there are a lot of tech companies like Dell and Sony that never made marginal extreme all-time highs relative to their dot-com bubble.
Right.
So, ETH can be at 5K and top out there, and it can work just fine, you know?
But I really don't have much else to say with Heath to be frank.
Nah, neither, bro.
It's literally just what I said.
Find a technical setup if you want to take the trade and wait for that Fed pivot whenever it comes.
And if then after that with a clean risk environment, if it doesn't perform like relative to BTC, then yeah, it's toast.
Yeah.
especially if you have catalysts coming out that are meant to like, you know,
solidify it and draw in like different pockets of liquidity, right?
Because I know hedge funds have no appetite for it because they view it as like overvalued for what,
you know, it actually is or whatever because it has, you know, limited use case right now.
But, you know, if we're talking about BlackRock setting things up with, you know,
potentially United States Treasury with stable coins, things like that, whatever,
all these kinds of things, staking for their ETF.
product, if all that starts to come into play and it still does shit while you have a risk
environment green light, then yeah, it's toast. But up until then, you know, the cycle is still
in play. And, you know, for something like ETH to three, four, five, six, seven X from, you know,
rush of these financial elites wanting to pump up their coin, you know, that can easily
happen in two months, three months. You know, you don't know when they can flip the switch. So
you just can't rule it out until we're in the next bear market.
It's terrifying how deep liquidity is in Trotify, like real money.
That is scary to think just how deep liquidity goes in those markets.
uh maybe crypto will be there in like 30 years perhaps maybe 20 to 30 years will be as big
as stratify i think it's going to take some time but crypto's not going anywhere but yo donnie
matt prometheus chill want to thank you all so much for coming on the show guys if you enjoyed
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