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Market Talk- GOLD HITS 5000! BTC lagging!? Alt season cancelled!?
Recorded: Jan. 26, 2026 Duration: 2:10:12Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Music so
I'm going to go. open up the limit
reach the top but still you gotta learn how to keep it Oh, yeah. so
welcome Take your baby one step home, our game's still playing, so we better win it. All right. Oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, Standing old lady, you might get jealous, but you'll never be safe for yourself. Thank you. Welcome to the lemon
Stand for the razor
Don't look down, just keep your head
If you're kidding
Welcome to the lemon it yo what's going on guys evan sniper what's up i am louie how are you man guys welcome back to
market talk brought to you by bb man apologies um for what happened on friday my battery actually just completely died out and
uh unfortunately i had to ah man going to a cell phone shop for anything is just like the biggest
hassle ever man especially on a friday afternoon here in south florida it's probably probably one
of the worst things ever outside of going to a supermarket.
Honestly, it's extremely tedious and very annoying.
But yeah, apologies for that.
Truly, guys.
And anyways, just to start off the week, gold and silver are just going parabolic at this point, man.
Everyone wants to call tops and evan i think um during one of our shows last week
we were saying that man i'm just gonna go ahead and stop trying to call top on gold and then it's
like oh that's probably when the top is coming in but this thing just will not stop man it will not
stop and um just even seeing some fractals on the timeline, it seems like silver is following a fractal from the 80s
and probably still has a ways to go.
And I think my only concern with the market would be, like,
when these metals start to pull back a bit, including palladium, platinum as well,
what happens to the crypto market, right?
But at the same time, we also have the queues close to
making new year-to-date highs and i think that's really the end to see that people should be
watching out for you actually want to see that end to see that index actually blast into price
discovery you also have the s p inching towards new year-to-date highs and i think this is where
we ask ourselves are we going to are we going to repeat the same thing that we did right around this time last year where the indices make a marginal all-time high and then they correct and crypto right after that thing tops like everything on chain
just took a fat nosedive man and honestly i thought that would be like a renaissance for
on chain i thought all right the u.s government is going to come is going to come in and save
the trenches um you had the white house tweet the penguin out at like 19, 18 mil, shot up to about 150.
And, you know, there's really two ways to think about it.
Either this is kind of like, kind of like, all right, this is like a top signal or whatever.
This thing runs and tops out and then everything dies.
Or maybe something like a Pepe, right?
Like this thing is extremely viral.
I remember I saw that reel on TikTok on Monday of last week
when it started to really make waves.
And it's, like, one of the few things that actually started
on a completely different platform outside of X.
And it's trending, man. like i you see it everywhere every single big social media account is talking
about it tweeting about and all that stuff not the coin itself but the meme and honestly i haven't
seen anything like this since chill guy but i'm still not sure what it means for the trenches honestly the market's been
extremely weird but um if you just take a step back over the last i would say like
two months or so there have been some runners on chain it's just the runs that they go on only
last a few days and within 48 hours they're down like 80%. They have a shoulder.
And that's basically it.
That's basically it.
But if you're active, there is opportunity. You just have to be extremely quick, right?
We had the AI slop names with Gastown, Ralph,
The Tomato and all that stuff.
And we also had White Whale,
a few others as well from the USD1 ecosystem or UDS1 ecosystem.
The World Liberty Fly stuff from the Solana meme coins and all that stuff.
So there have been some opportunities.
And I think that's the benefit of this market, that there's still some stuff to do, even in the equity markets.
Like if you played Intel, if you played SanDisk, there have been some great gains.
There's always a bull market somewhere.
Some people are better at playing upside.
Some people are better at trading ranges.
So there's always a market.
There's always a market for everyone.
And even something like NatGass, I think someone was here on the show last week talking about gas and like I
think and that gas had had two trading sessions where it was up like 60 or 70
percent or something like that so even markets outside of crypto are showing
some insane volatility you look at things like gold, well over 100% gains since the election.
Since the election, there have been tremendous gains in the precious metals market. And
that is absolutely incredible. I think we all know that a chopping market
with no volatility, just in tight ranges in crypto, in stocks and in precious metals, that would actually be a horrible market.
But either way, I got a couple of people up here.
I'm sure we're going to have some of our other usual speakers up here for the second half of the show.
But once again, guys, apologies on my end.
guys apologies on my end just hardware issues on Friday and honestly iPhones are
Just hardware issues on Friday.
gosh did iPhone batteries really get destroyed extremely fast man it's kind
of it's it's kind of disheartening man it is so disheartening but either way
apologies for that guys spaces are recorded as always i hope you all had
a fantastic weekend by the way and we're gonna go ahead and get started and shout out to all of our
new followers that have followed us last week we gained well over 100 followers which is great
especially in this market thank you all so much for uh supporting what i do here at bb with these
streams and all that stuff so before we
officially get started guys uh if you guys can go ahead show some love to the stream you guys
already know how to do that you guys always do such a great job and uh of course for those of
you that don't know just click the spaces tab down below once you guys do that right above our profile
pictures you'll see that nice link right above the nest that says x.com slash i
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on our end here at bb so without further ado we're gonna go ahead and uh get started with
today's edition of market talk and i'm gonna pass it on over to evan um that's uh who was speaking
on friday before the stream got cut short and i wish there really was a way to actually host spaces via mac but it's so buggy
and it's so bad um and it's it's it's spaces on mac are just so unusable man but anyways evan
what's up man how was your weekend great to have you back on the sale man what's going on man yeah always great to talk you know um weekend was good you know all that uh i want to get you know a lot is happening let's
talk about silver like you mentioned you know um silver is hitting a major fib level um rejected
from it actually pretty cleanly 113 and you got a little bit above that and then a nice, you know,
kind of big candle downwards.
So that's where we're starting to see
a big line in the sand here.
And I think that the fundamental thing here,
the fundamental thing that may make silver,
a couple of things too
that I'll talk about in just a second,
but the fundamental thing
that I would guess would make silver
at least do not as good as it's done
is Powell is
going to speak in two days FOMC meeting. What's even more, you know, not good for something like
silver, I would say, is that he's going to pause, you know, after a long, after some cuts. Last time
they paused after cuts was January, 2025. Monetary policy, we know, is one of the most important things about, I would say,
commodities, crypto as well. I would say slightly less important for TradFi, but still very
important, obviously. And I think that could be one of the things that finally brings us into a
correction. I do think that silver and gold may follow the S&P 500, I am assuming that you're going to see probably at least,
you know, a 10 to 15% correction for the S&P 500.
If I had to guess where the SPY would end up, I would guess around, you know, 590 something,
you know, between the next six to eight months, somewhere of that nature.
And I think gold and silver probably will correct with it.
I think some
things that are on a different wavelength a different kind of market here that may
outperform and you know jump out probably not a surprise to a lot of you guys if you've been
listening to me or you know just been following kind of 2022 in some ways xle energy stuff
uranium potentially lithium i would say in my you know, comparing it to like the
blue chip would be like the ETF, the safest one XLE. And then if you want to sprinkle on some
riskier stuff, lithium, uranium, Occidental Petroleum, things of that nature. I mean,
you could have fun with platinum, palladium or what, you know, so I don't really buy stuff. I,
I I'm too lazy to even look up what it does like
palladium or whatever there's stuff that i could barely pronounce usually that's a way that you
get slaughtered you know when you're buying you know and fortunately i mean sometimes you make
money with it but when you buy all coins that if you you have no clue what the hell they do usually
in the long run you do get slaughtered i think there's that that like concept in investing that's
important to realize too like don't buy things that you don't understand um is important and then also probably don't buy things that you just have
no interest in that you're too lazy to even ask chat gbt what they do so that's kind of one of
the principles i follow to a certain extent or at least try to follow that normally um works good
so i think where we are you know i think XLE will continue to outperform, you know,
S&P 500 next four to six months, continue to outperform Bitcoin next four to six months.
I think that's like a good bet right now. When I look at, you know, interest rates and all that,
I do think if S&P 500 goes down, I do think your treasuries, your yields will probably
go down as well. I don't think it's going to be anything crazy. We want to realize too, like just replacing Powell, and this is something I'll admit that I
forgot as well. It seems like if you just replace Powell with somebody Trump wants, you're probably
immediately going to get a hundred basis points decreased. Like that's not, the other, there's
other people on the board that have to agree with that. So, I mean, I still think things will go
down. You'll get some cuts, you know, after Powell's gone. But I don't think it's going to be as crazy altcoin season immediately.
I mean, I think that you're probably not going to see, you know,
alt really have a nice run-up until probably 2027, 2028, that area.
I think this is kind of your typical bear market that's going to rhyme with, like,
you know, 2022 to a certain extent.
People have talked about Russell 2000.
I think that probably is a good shot of outperforming S&P 500, NASDAQ this year, at least due to monetary policy. But I do think
that energy probably will outperform that for like next four to six months. What's interesting on
silver too, you know, if you're 100 years old like me, you like to look at Berkshire Hathaway
versus metals and stuff. Berkshire Hathaway is now down 77 against silver it's
hitting the same exact point that it hit in may of 2006 i probably sound like a freaking sunken
cost fallacy here but when it hit that area that big area had a nice jump against silver
consolidation for a few years before you saw the 08 recession and then you dropped down farther for your your eventual
bottom in 2011. Now why I think something may unless you think we're going into a recession
this year or immediately I think something like this may rhyme you know with your gold and silver
evaluation at least against the S&P 500. I would guess especially with Trump in office that and
especially with Powell probably doing all he can to prevent his legacy being known as the guy who let silver go up 100x.
You know, I would think that S&P 500 will start to go consolidate or outperform gold and silver for a little bit for the next few years.
The thing that's really going to be the catalyst for the next recession is when people can no longer, you know, when they lose their job, just easily do Uber, you know, gig economy, stuff like that, deliver food and make, you know, 20 bucks an hour or enough to stay out of poverty.
Once all these robots and stuff, I mean, I think Waymo's in Miami now, haven't been in Miami for a minute, but I'm really excited when I go back to Miami in probably July to check
out or try out a Waymo for the first time or whatever. And see, I think it's Las Vegas too.
But I think once that gets everywhere, which that's probably three, four years away,
you know, that's going to be cheaper. Who the hell is going to take a normal Uber where the
actual driver hallucinates more than the AI? You know, that's what's going to, you know, bring the next
recession. And I think, you know, it's kind of the cycle. The last thing I'll say here is that
from, I would say, probably 2008, that recession until like Uber came out, gig economy got big
around 2015, that like, you know, 12 or what was it like eight year period, it wasn't that easy to
just immediately find something that's going to keep you out of poverty.
And so I think that's what kept unemployment down low.
And I think we're going to see that same kind of thing in the 2030s, especially due to the AI.
So, you know, I guess it's just unfortunate.
You know, some people are afraid of AI and all that, but I think that's just part of
the cycle and what will happen.
I mean, I think there's going to be new opportunities and new things to come.
You know, I think obviously things get better over new opportunities and new things to come. You know,
I think obviously things get better over time, but that's the way I'm looking at it. And you just
got to approach the market the way you see it. So I think, you know, I'm more in safe stuff right
now. And then my, I guess you could say my riskier bets are, I mean, I still obviously have some
crypto, but you know, energy would be a bet that I'm trying to run up for the next six to eight
months. And then, you know, Berkshire Hhire hathaway have you know just safe stuff that generally you know that generally won't make
you poor you know what i mean and then converting a lot of that over into bitcoin at better
evaluations hopefully you know four to six months somewhere between may to october so
that's my game plan probably not the most optimistic you know thing, but just the way I see it right now.
Evan, how do you position yourself for like the growth of all these Waymos and stuff like that, man?
Because I also see them as well.
Yeah, I mean, I think that after the AI bubble kind of happened.
So I think we're in an AI bubble.
I think based on, you know, we're seeing the AI Super Bowl in two weeks.
You know, I think that's going to be a decent sell-off. So I think buy the damn dip on that. Yeah. Buy Google,
buy, I hopefully that comes down in four to six months. Buy the dip on that. I think you'll do
pretty well into the end of the decade. I think we're in an area like the late nineties, like
1996 or 1966 or 1926, where you got a few more years and things will come up.
So to position with that, that's Google, obviously.
NASDAQ as well.
I mean, I think stuff like Palantir, I know it's not like self-driving cars.
I don't, it shows my ignorance.
I'm afraid that's government stuff, Palantir, I believe.
I probably sound like an idiot right now.
But if that comes down to like, you know, a better evaluation, maybe like $80.
I'm just spitballing here.
I don't know.
But maybe like $70, $80.
Get into that six to eight months.
So I think by the damn dip on AI, a lot of money could be made.
That may, I mean, that stuff could outperform Bitcoin into the end of the decade.
Let's be real.
Definitely.
That's a real thing, man.
Small cap, how are you doing you doing man thanks for coming back on
apologies for uh for friday brother no no worries at all man i'm doing well uh good to be here i
think evan really summed it up pretty well as far as as far as gold and silver i'll touch on
this slightly but this is a big week um this a, a very volatility induced week in my opinion. Um,
obviously we've got everything going on from across the pond geopolitically, still some tariff
things lingering. Um, but as far as just, you know, the market in general,
mag seven earnings kicks off this week. And it's funny, like no one, I mean, I wouldn't say no one's talking about it, but no one is really talking about revenues or EPS or anything of that nature when it comes to
these, to these companies specifically, um, you know, the large hyperscalers, the large five,
we're not, not including Oracle. Um, I guess, you know, Microsoft meta, they're reporting after
the bell on Wednesday, I believe, or maybe it could be Thursday.
And then Amazon and Google to come later as well.
But just, I'm focusing on Microsoft and Meta this week.
You know, I think that this isn't real, like, routine reporting, right?
It's a test for this ai infrastructure super cycle two trillion dollars
um is what they're putting at it where like capex guidance is definitely the make or break metric
uh you know jp morgan goldman sachs they've all been reporting on it they're modeling combined
capex for just those four not including oracle microsoft meta amazon um and google at
475 billion for this year and that's up from 230 billion like two years ago right so that's
just there is a 25 to 30 percent uh compounded annual growth rate which is insane um from microsoft their azure the cloud grew at 60 percent last quarter i believe it was
so i'm definitely really focused on that capex number i see that it's at they're projecting
full year 2026 120 to 130 billion anything below that could definitely signal some return on
investment scrutiny as as they're in the middle of, uh, you know, as their margins did
dip to like 40% from efficiency pressures. And then obviously meta Zuck fresh off the reality
labs pivot, they're guiding like 70 to 72 billion, uh, in CapEx this year, which is up pretty big
from last year, like almost 80% or right around there, 75% up from 40 billion last year.
So I think that, you know, Zuck's metaverse to like AI reset being under the microscope is a good thing, but it also means that they need to, they need to come out and perform.
You know, over committing was an issue from a lot of different analysts, basically saying that over commitment could pressure free cashflow yields already at
like 4.2, 4.3% moving forward. But you know, overall like Q4 2025, MAG7 EPS up 70% year over
year, same thing with revenues close to 17%. But again, the real volatility driver is forward
guidance. So I'm definitely watching that. And I think everyone should, whether you're, you know,
long AI or not, you know, if you're an investor in the market,
unless you're completely bearish on it and shorting it, you know, all of us are probably
exposed in some way, shape or form when it comes to just every single sector. Everyone is getting
into AI. You got the Bitcoin miners obviously transitioning. These Mag7 guidances are,
You got the Bitcoin miners obviously transitioning.
These MAC7 guidances or these hyperscaler guidances are going to be huge for them.
If CapEx holds firm with the inference demand, AI inference demand just shooting up, we're
projected, I think, 200% year over year, we could absolutely see NASDAQ futures rip like
1% to 2% immediately and kind of spark some rotation
into value plays too. You know, in a market where CapEx, literally AI CapEx is almost 2% of US GDP,
like one to 2% of GDP, these earnings calls could totally swing the S&P by, I wouldn't be surprised
for, you know, 200 to 300 basis points swings.
So that's definitely something to think about.
And then just some changes from last week. Later in the week last week on Thursday, Friday, government shutdown odds were at 6% to 8% on Polymarket Kalshi.
And we're seeing them now sitting at, I see 78%, 75% to 80% for the 31st this Saturday.
So I think, again, the catalyst is there's just a lot going on in the world.
A lot of fractures over DHS and ICE.
It's kind of just fuming outrage politically and just pushing us towards partial shutdown.
So I don't think it's that big of a deal.
Analysts and estimates, just in the past, historically, GDP gets shaved like a tenth of a percent, maybe two tenths of a percent.
I think that that could be monthly or could be weekly, but basically from a government shutdown.
So again, I don't think that it's that big of a deal.
I think risk-off flows could maybe clip equity as a percent or two or a couple percent, keep it choppy.
But again, long term, I don't think that a government shutdown really has anything structural to do with the AI trade or just main theses.
It's just, again, something that is pretty annoying
and makes it a little tougher to trade.
But as investors, again, I don't think it's that big of a deal
until it starts dragging and VIX starts spiking over 25, 30.
So we'll see what happens with that.
And then again, Fed meeting this week.
I'm watching the Fed meeting this week. I'm watching the Fed meeting this week. I think that it's really not about the rate decision. I think it's more about the tone. The market's already
assuming we're pretty close to, we're basically at terminal. So what matters is how Powell frames
inflation progress and labor cooling, but most importantly, just the path for cuts.
So if the language is dovish, he acknowledges disinflation, softer data, I think bonds will
catch a bid, tech and AI trades, everything's going to stay relatively strong and risk appetite
will broaden. But if he starts pushing back, a little hawkish, right, starts stressing sticky inflation or just kind of reopens the door to staying higher for longer, then we'll see some shakeout.
The key is just whether the Fed signals patience or urgency.
I think that that's what's going to set the tempo for quarter one positioning.
And I think that we're like in a really, really interesting part of the Federal Reserve.
You know, for forever, the fed has been completely independent and it seems as if we're, you
know, Trump is pushing a little bit for, I wouldn't say less independence, but there's
pressure on the fed.
Um, they've completely, I'm not going to say, excuse my French, but they've really
messed up, uh, our monetary policy over the last 15 to 20 years.
There's very little credibility when it comes to inflation. And when you have low credibility,
when it comes to inflation and the Fed entrusting the Fed to make the right decisions, I think that
that's kind of what sparks bond markets to melt and also what we're seeing with gold. So it'll
be interesting to see what happens there.
And I guess the last thing that I've started to look at
and start paying attention to
is high bandwidth memory when it comes to AI.
There's a big shortage right now.
And there's two names that we all should be watching this week
if you're positioned in AI,
if you're an investor in AI.
And that is, So basically HBM,
it's, how do I describe it? It's basically, everyone talks about GPUs, talking about
computing, but HBM is kind of like the oxygen tank for the accelerators when it comes to AI.
Without it, you can't feed GPUs information quickly and your performance
basically collapses. So what's happening in the demand side for HBM is that it's scaled way faster
than the industry expected. So NVIDIA just absorbed the entire share of next-gen capacity for training
and AI models and inference build-outs. So there's, and there's literally three
producers globally, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. And two of those report earnings this week.
So I think it's important, you know, to take a look at Samsung and SK Hynix, especially,
you know, not just for like the Mac seven, but also these are huge for the Bitcoin mining space that, you know, now the AI infrastructure space.
If these guys can't, you know, get a share of their HBM and supply states constrained, it's going to hit a lot of these stocks.
But, you know, I'm not too worried about it.
But naturally, you know, capacity is just tight right now.
There's going to be a sustained shortage.
So like I said, set up for it.
Samsung, SK Hynix, report earnings this week.
That's just going to be a tell for the memory layer of AI.
And, you know, if you want to understand the forward health to AI infrastructure in general,
you watch HBM pricing, CapEx, and how much of their output is locked up by hyperscalers
and accelerator OEMs. So I'll keep it, I'll lock it in there and pass it to someone else.
But that's basically what I'm looking for. And again, man, it's just, it doesn't stop. Like
this year has been wild and I think it's going to kind of just be the Wild West
until we get the new Fed share and get through this first quarter earnings.
So I'm looking forward to it nonetheless.
Yeah, I know Evan has a theory that markets will probably resume their massive upward trend
that they've been in once Powell leaves office.
And I would agree on that, man.
And it's kind of shocking that a government shutdown could actually happen again.
And we all saw what happened last year.
I think to the day where the government had that shutdown, BTC and the broader crypto market had topped out at that point
we all saw what happened a few days later um but i know the queues continue to rally on for a couple
more weeks it's just like deja vu that you also have uh the queues curling up right now and if
the government actually does shut down man i think that'll provide some good buying opportunities, to be honest.
Maybe something like a hyperliquid, for example.
Maybe there's a buying opportunity there at like $14, $15 or something like that, which will honestly be awesome for a lot of people that are bullish on things hyperliquid.
that are bullish on on things hyper liquid and even with something like AI
right you might get a good buying opportunity like evidence dated with
pounds here and and stuff like that Louie what's going on man welcome how are
you what's going on guys thanks for having me Wabi appreciate it yeah great
points great points from the last two speakers. Um, yeah, I mean, I'm, I'm, I'm more of a technical guy, price action. Um, not super, uh, super big on fundamental, um, news narrative, stuff like that. Um, obviously this is the FOMC week. Not my favorite weeks, to be honest. Usually it's, uh it causes monday tuesday price action kind of
be wishy-washy um i don't think it's a massive massive um fomc meeting uh compared to previous
ones i think this is i'm not correct me if i'm wrong i think this is uh drone powell's last last FOMC meeting as chairman. So unless he throws a wrench at us here as his last kind of meeting,
who knows whether it's to kind of throw the middle finger up to Trump
or whatever, all that shenanigans that's gone on.
I'm not like super, I'm not looking for anything crazy coming out of this week but you
know as far as price action concerned might be wishy-washy um but yeah i mean just technically
speaking um i i am getting a little more bullishly optimistic on bitcoin and crypto here have been
over the last couple weeks um and the reasoning behind that is for a long time, I was
looking for a catch up trade to the downside, inequities, stuff like that. Obviously, major
indexes remaining elevated S&P, NASDAQ, looking great, S&P breaking into all time highs, NASDAQ
attempting to. And we have the Russell or the IWM, like low cap stock indexes, breaking into price discovery for a couple of weeks now.
And to me, that's a leading risk on indicator, right?
Whether you want to say the correlation between the Russell and crypto is broken, which I don't blame you for thinking so.
It's still an indicator for me as far as appetite for high beta risk assets.
That's what the Russell is, right?
It's your lower cap, high risk stocks.
As far as the stock market is concerned, it's the closest thing we have to crypto, right?
So when I'm seeing major stock indexes not looking like they want to reverse, which can happen any moment, you never really know.
want to reverse, which can happen any moment, you never really know.
Um, and I see the Russell breaking into price discovery, um, you know, flipping
from cautious to a little more optimistic here in crypto as we've been trading
in a range for the last almost three months now, um, I think makes sense.
Right.
I feel as if bears had their chance to send Bitcoin lower, not that it can't go
lower.
Um, but, uh, I am looking lower, but I am looking for upside.
I am looking for upside.
There's just way too many quality altcoins that I'm following that are trading into macro range low areas, right?
So whether Bitcoin wants to sweep its lows or not, I'm well aware that Bitcoin has multiple untapped lows below us all the way down to 80K.
Pretty much everyone on the timeline talking about that,
which granted, that's what Bitcoin likes to do.
It doesn't really like to leave much liquidity behind.
But when I see everything else going on I just mentioned,
and I see altcoins trading into great high timeframe swing opportunities to the upside,
I have to kind of take what the market's
giving me, which is all coins are coming out of a multi-month downtrend or even more, right?
Pretty much I've been in a bear market for two years, you could argue at this point,
other than some select runners. And I'm looking to play those to the upside here, right? So whether
I take shots here, those fail and Bitcoin trades a little
lower and I got to try again. I still think we're in the general area where the risk reward is skewed
to the upside for me as far as some of these altcoins concerned. Like people wanting to short
altcoins here doesn't really make much sense. Like we're at the tail end of a four month downtrend um and now you want to short coins i
don't think that's the best risk reward you know even if they do go lower um you know the the risk
reward is skewed to the upside a lot of these names um and i'm positioned for that upside so
um some things that i'm looking at today that I really like ones interesting,
actually, um, it's a little more of a tinfoil hat, I guess you could say, but, uh, GME GameStop,
um, breaking out last week, uh, and continuing higher today, uh, up almost 15% off its range
lows here. Um, getting whispers and announcements that Michael Burry are coming out now saying that, you know,
they're long the stock and they're anticipating some sort of short squeeze in a way.
For me, one, the reason why I got long GameStop last week is it's something I've watched every now and again.
But when I see the Russell, right, when I see low cap stock indexes breaking out,
the first thing I think of is GameStop, right?
If you guys go back to 2021, you know, that was the main story of kind of that
meme stock craze, right, where we had these low cap speculative stocks going on
absolute tears to the upside and not so long after we had a crazy, crazy crypto and all point bull run.
Right. So GameStop, you know, coming off the floor here in a decent way thus far, I think it
still has some more work to do before like really claiming that it's breaking out here. I think it
is a pretty glaring risk on indicator for high risk assets to me. So that's a good one that we got long in the
discord well in advance last week. That's playing out great thus far. Another thing I'm noticing
today too is, you know, altcoins that are kind of leading here. And I mentioned many altcoins in
appetizing spots for longs, in my opinion. You know, we're seeing something like Hyperliquid, which
if you guys have been following along over the last six to eight months, Hyperliquid tends to
be a leading altcoin in this market where if Hyperliquid is looking strong, that's usually
a good sign and indication of altcoin strength as well, being the leading DEX platform for this sector, right? So hyperliquid up almost 10% on the day and up
almost 20% off the lows from last week. That's also a great sign, right? Coming out of a six
month downtrend. So seeing hyperliquid strong today, that's another one we got long at the
lows. So happy to be long, Some hyperlocal from around $20.
Seeing that do well today is also a good sign, in my opinion, for a potential reversal here out of Bitcoin and altcoins.
So I am bullishly optimistic here.
Like kind of switching from being cautious over the last couple months in crypto to now saying, okay, yep, you know what, if they can't break it down sooner than later, I'm going to start taking some long shots here in the altcoin market.
And that's kind of how I'm positioned. So liking what I'm seeing thus far and positioning for some potential upside here heading into this week. But I mean,
let's see how FOMC plays out, right? Because again, the reason why FOMC weeks are annoying
because you can get great constructive price action Monday, Tuesday sometimes,
and then Wednesday throws an absolute wrench at your head and mixes everything up on you.
So probably better off getting some better signal later in the week, Thursday, Friday.
But right now, still bullishly optimistic um on bitcoin and crypto here with the
caveat that you know understanding that bitcoin can slide a little lower first but still
technically be in its area where it may bottom
evan have you checked out hyper liquid i know you like uh trading mostly like the top 10 man
has that been something that's
caught your eye uh yeah i mean i look at a lot of that let me actually chart that because i have not
like looked at that in a while i know it's been mentioned a lot i think andrew like everybody's
mentioned that um i mean and if you like hyper right, like on its macro chart, I think you'd probably like Pump as well.
They kind of had some similarities.
They had a Pump, like Pump's first pump was a bit quick, right?
But if you look at the way Pump is, right, it had that first little pump, the decline, then the first huge pump, then the decline.
And it kind of looks
like uh how how hype's chart looks in a way so it's like you're trading strictly off of chart
patterns pump could potentially follow what hyper liquid is doing especially like if we look at the
way the market has been um honestly since majors topped most of the price action for upside has been in these markets on
chain right a lot of tickers that don't really have exchange listings they're just launched on
the native chain whether it's on base whether it's on soul and typically when a lot of the
price action is on solana um pump does tend to be that that beneficiary of all that kind of uh
activity that traders do on chain so that's also something that you might like if if you like the
way hyper liquid looks right now yeah that does look good i've been watching pump is starting to
interject but yeah i i'm watching pump as well that's also another chart again that's coming
off a multi-month you know four five six month five, six-month down trend, trading below.
It's kind of ICO launch price.
It has been strong over the last couple of weeks.
That's another thing I've been seeing where, yeah, you know,
POMP, usually POMP doing well.
We don't have much data on it, but POMP doing well
is usually a good sign for sole on-chain.
I've also noticed some on-chain life a little bit
where I haven't really dabbled in that space in
months but starting to notice like we have a discord where you know we have channels specifically for
like on-chain creating on-chain tickers and stuff like that and I'm starting to notice we're starting
to get some runners on-chain and that's also usually a good sign so yeah great point. That's
another thing that I'm monitoring and yeah Pumpbooks looks pretty good here and it's usually
a good sign for the overall health of,
you know,
on chain and just the all claim market in general.
I'll take the slightly contrarian view.
I think that like pump right now,
you're at like a huge point,
which is fricking 0.0026 about like that kind of area.
And I think that if you were to reject kind of from where you are right now,
it's really bad for pump,
but if you can kind of hold that like next couple of weeks,
then you may have something.
It's like such a huge point.
The same could be said for hype right now.
Like as long as you could fricking hold like 21,
I guess,
or $20 because that was where the crazy wick was from October 10th, and you should
be okay. But if you lose that, man, you're probably going to 12 bucks, which is, I mean,
I could see ETH correcting a lot too. So, I mean, you probably won't even correct that much more
than ETH or Bitcoin in some of those cases, depending. But it's risky business, in my
opinion, especially with the FOMc um if you can hold that
october low you should be okay though but man i think it's risky business
yeah i i uh i have a feeling that hype will potentially take out that 1010 wick.
And I think that just goes off of the basis of this government shutdown.
Like, I mean, we had that decline across the board for the market up until the government reopened again.
And we had that bounce from, what was it, 80,000, just just over 80,000s, all the way to 97K for BTC.
And, I mean, altcoins still bled out, man.
That's the thing.
Even after the government reopened up, alts didn't really bottom out, mostly, right, the big caps,
until mid-December, either mid-december going into christmas right that's
when things like monad had also bottomed out and then we had a small multi-week rally um
dude and not to mention that pepe pump to start off the year man that was absolutely tremendous. It really was tremendous, man.
And usually when Pepe pumps, that's like an indication where it's about to be easy mode,
but at the same time, it's about to be so over.
But that so over part usually only happens when it gets into price discovery at least that's how the trend has been uh on that specific
coin but i mean btc getting above the 10 10 wick that would be pretty nice man but yeah we do have
some uh bounces across the board um we have white whale bouncing the penguin coin bouncing um seeker is also
bouncing that was like something that just came out of nowhere man um i think we talked about it
on thursday or maybe to start off the friday show where the um people who had the second generation
solanophone if they used it right if they actually used it and had some activity on there, they basically got a 7x return on their Seeker investment.
They basically got, I think it was $6,000, like $5,000 to $6,000 worth of SKR.
like five to six thousand dollars worth of uh skr um and of course that turned into like five
figures which is honestly which is honestly insane if you think about it like yeah what would you
guys do if you bought a phone if you bought a phone and you got a bunch of money for using it
after like a couple of months how would you guys react
couple of months how would you guys react oh yeah that's why i was going to add a little bit there
but i did buy the i don't know if this was even a good um idea i bought the original solana phone
and then i flipped it and sold it for like i don't know four or five grand but uh what was the deal
with it sorry i zoned out there but i i probably would have taken the
i think i made the right idea right yeah it's it it is kind of whack like they did not give the
airdrop to the saga to the to the saga phone um but the thing is with the saga phone like
it was loaded with a bunch of bonk it was loaded with a bunch of bonk. It was loaded with a bunch of bonk.
It was loaded with NFTs and a few other things.
So, like, you still made a good amount of money.
I think it was, like, just from the Saga airdrops alone,
like, you got, like, five figures worth of airdrops as well.
So you don't see that with Apple, right?
Like, Apple doesn't give you stock when you buy their phone and use it continuously.
I think that's pretty cool, man.
Even though most of that money is basically just VC money.
These companies, they raise money, and then they use a portion of that,
and they use it for marketing purposes, is you know they buy tokens on the market
they load it onto the phone and it's basically a marketing a marketing stunt right like isn't that
the best marketing ever buy our phone you get free money so it's like all right these people
made money on not only the saga phone but on the seeker phone i'm gonna go ahead and buy the uh the next model
right so i think it's i think it's strategic marketing for some of these uh
hardware products in crypto because i mean what other hardware products do you actually have in
crypto i know telcoin has like their landline stuff um but outside of that like there's no actual hardware outside of
there's like that ethereum phone that was coming out it was like like end of last year
no it was like uh end of last year wasn't it it's like uh i don't i don't really get into
all that stuff to be honest um i'm more of a speculator of the asset class.
I don't get airdrops.
I've been in this market for nine years,
and this market doesn't like handing me free money.
I have to earn it the old-fashioned way.
That's just my life.
Hyperliquid was a pretty good airdrop right like i think
if yeah i got a small amount like a million yeah i did so i can't fully complain but i made more on
on the appreciation of just holding it um than than the actual drop itself so i did do okay with
that but i know people that did a lot better right but uh comparison is the thief of joy they like to
say so but would love to do if they were doing another one right because since the last one i've done a ton of volume on there so there
is always rumors out always that circulate around that they'll do another airdrop because that was
like the most successful airdrop in crypto um as far as i'm concerned as far as like dollar values
and rewarding actual users earlier on in in the ecosystem so that would be great
yeah um speaking of airdrops i think the jupiter airdrop goes live um like later this weekend
um for their jupi i don't know how to pronounce it jupuary or jupe jupers jupe verse whatever it is um nothing's gonna beat that
first season though like the first jupiter airdrop was like insane man um and now it's like you have
to do a bunch of stuff for these airdrops it's like you have to use every single feature of the
platform you have to have used it for x amount of time and and all that
stuff um and i agree with you on hyper liquid like i think if you did like a million dollars
in volume which is like ridiculously small but you still got a couple couple of uh couple of
shekels man you know and there's always speculation like oh is this airdrop going to be
better than the hyper liquid airdrop nothing's ever going to oh, is this airdrop going to be better than the Hyperliquid airdrop?
Nothing's ever going to beat the Hyperliquid airdrop.
Not base.
What's that other airdrop that people have been scratching about?
The second Uniswap airdrop, that was another one that people were super excited for with their Unichain and all that stuff.
And nothing ever happened with that. one that like people were super excited for with their uni chain and all that stuff and
nothing ever happened with that so it's like between hyperliquid and uniswap that was a four year gap just for using uniswap one time just for making one swap you got two grand like two to four
grand depending on like like when you sold the airdrop and and all that stuff um i think it was
like when you sold the airdrop and all that stuff um i think it was 400 uni tokens that you got
and the all-time high on uni was like what was it like 50 bucks or something like that but when
it first came out it was like 10 10 bucks 12 bucks right when it uh right when it launched so yeah yeah uniswap peaked out at yeah just below 50
dollars man so you're talking thousands just for just for clicking a button man like how do you
describe this to normal people it's like it's it's incredible just for making a swap just for
using some of these new products you just get money for it isn't that
crazy evan yeah yeah totally i mean it's i think you know a lot of those things you said um cooking
eggs right now sorry but you know a lot of those things you said yeah i mean it's like we compare
it to kind of 2021 and like a lot of like those opportunities you know due to monetary policy a
lot of us just hoped we'd see kind of that same monetary policy but unfortunately you know we
really haven't in a lot of ways so it's like you know you got that a little bit you get it here and
there with the solana phone i think that was what was that end of 23 where you saw that like mini
all-coin market end of 24 you saw the same thing to a certain extent.
And then, you know, end of 25, you didn't really see it.
And I mean, I was wrong about that.
I think a lot of people were.
We couldn't see, you know, what we really were hoping for.
And it kind of shows you a little bit of the change in trajectory.
You know, I think that we're getting into an area where
it's similar in a lot of ways to like the uh the um come up to 2021 because during that bear market
like 2018 2019 in 2020 a lot of people were really afraid of all the coins because of the ptsd of
that and then you know the same thing we're kind of seeing that history repeat now.
We're almost getting there.
And I think we'll completely be there
if we don't see an altcoin season in 2026 this year,
which I don't think it's too likely,
but there'll probably be a lot of PTSD,
especially if Bitcoin goes down to 50-something K,
ETH goes back to 1800,
and a lot of these alts, you know,
really get decimated, which could happen for a lot of them.
And then you kind of reset the market.
And then I think your freaking altcoin market, especially ETH outperforming Bitcoin and more
of these airdrops, more of this stuff that you saw, you know, primarily in 2021, then
a little bit in 2023, 2024 will come back.
And that's kind of history repeating.
So, I mean, be on the look out for it, I would say, especially 2027, 2028, because a lot of money could be made there.
I mean, obviously, it should be small, smaller amounts of your portfolio.
But you still could.
You don't need freaking, you know, all your money and this type of stuff.
All your, you know, you could still have 60 bitcoin and
still be able to do very well with this stuff just smaller amounts so yeah
tomorrow caps do you play on chain by any chance or is it just like majors and stocks listen i'm
learning a lot about on chain right now from this that's why i haven't
really uh chimed in no i mean i listen i'm i'm mainly an equities guy and i and i accumulate
bitcoin um i've been buying bitcoin for quite some time now um i still have i also have some
eth and uh but it's mainly just you know try to make money in market and then stack sats
that's how I am.
So, I mean, I'm listening to what you guys are talking about, and I'm like, shit.
This is a little bit of a different language for me, but it's.
Is he still speaking?
He was like choppy for me on my end.
He cut out, bro. out bro i lost him yeah damn man spaces are rugging again you've got to be kidding me this is
that's nuts man that really is uh that really is crazy i like spaces just
we'll do this thing where it's like like it works then it boots people out
and it's choppy but um yeah um i uh i've seen that like the trend has been whenever these
airdrops do happen the market just rallies for a few days and then just dies off um i think after the the hyper liquid airdrop that
was like the only recent airdrop over the last like 14 months where the market actually continues
to rally up but after the jupiter airdrop market imploded uh that was last year in q1 we all know
what happened and don't even get me started on the Monat airdrop, man.
Like, that was, oh my gosh, man.
That was like the death cross for a lot of altcoins right when that thing dropped, which was, I think it was like going into Thanksgiving.
Like, alts continued to bleed out into mid-december and some of them just
just got flatlined man they just got their heads chopped off small caps what's up man
yeah my bad i had to step out of the house for a second so i think the wi-fi
was cutting in and out you hear me good now
yeah it's okay cool man yes i, it's all good though, man.
I think it's probably more of a spaces issue, honestly.
I like it.
Yeah, yeah, blame it on spaces. I like it.
That's what I usually do.
But no, I mean, listen, as far as on-chain, again,
I'm not really super active in terms of trading.
I'm more equities, commodities focused,
and I like to stack Bitcoin.
That's what I've been doing for my whole investing career but i think that just just to you know adds a little bit to the conversation
what's interesting to me is how you know the on-chain activity is kind of becoming like a
signal layer for capital rotation and you know you can see it in flows and wallets, stablecoin issuance,
and of course meme coins whenever that season is here.
So I think it's just basically the market's risk appetite is playing out in real time,
and all of that appetite tends to front-run equities.
So I think on-chain narratives can pump liquidity faster than
traditional markets, right? And that speculation sort of bleeds into public equity names tied
to infrastructure, like AI, chips, data center energy, and even the miners. But I think it's
all one ecosystem now, right? Like compute, liquidity, hype, everything's conversion.
So I think we're in the early stages of watching, although I'm not like, you know, too into it myself,
the early stages of seeing crypto on chain behavior, like sort of kind of play out as an economic indicator,
kind of kind of play out as a as an economic indicator should i say for risk assets kind of
the same way that like the vix discredit credit spreads are i mean that's a little out there but
you know that's my thought on it man all season all season that's that's uh that's something that
that people have been saying for years include including myself man
including myself when's it coming i would agree with you like ash crypto has been telling me it's
coming for three years like when's it coming man that's uh that's a good question that is a good
question um honestly all season depends on solana and i know some people say it's like ethan all that
stuff but over the last few years and even even even last cycle like when solana leads as far as
the top 10 goes again just the top 10 everything else could easily outperform soul but um over the last six years right since solana since solana
tge um actually no five years because solana really started its massive run in q1 of 21 whatever
solana has led that's when the market just does absolutely phenomenal You take a look at something like, and Evan, if you have a chart pulled up, if you look at mid-July of 2021, Solana went absolutely parabolic for about four months straight after mid-July.
And every altcoin, most altcoins were doing tremendously well.
um most altcoins were doing tremendously well same thing with uh q1 of 21 solana led and it was like
the darling of the cycle right people thought that solana was the token for ftx like some
people actually thought that solana was the ftc token does Does that make sense, guys? Does that make sense?
Like, people thought that the FTX token was sold.
Like, people thought SPF created sold,
which was, that's actually crazy, man.
I remember Solana as, like, an ICO
during the 2018 bear market.
People were talking about that.
And many big profiles today were talking about how like Solana
is going to be like the tokenized NASDAQ, right?
In a way, that is true today, right?
Like you have tokenized attention, not tokenized stocks,
but tokenized attention not tokenized stocks but tokenized attention if you see
viral tiktok video um or like a viral meme on twitter it's probably going to be tokenized
almost immediately uh on solana whether it's through pump fun or god forbid bon Bonk Fun, or even worse, Bag Zap.
It's going to be tokenized on Solana.
There should be told, I really like trading more on base than I do on Sol. The extensions of the run are a lot more cleaner,
whether as on Sol, you really don't know if the rally
that you're witnessing right now whatever coin you're holding is going to last like three days
a week a week and a half right and then like after it stops pumping in two days it's down 80
75 whether it's on base the the the trends are a bit more longer does that make sense does that
make sense guys like on solana you can catch a 10x right something you buy at five mil you sell it at
50 in like three days whether on base it would take more like two weeks three weeks right and i
think a lot of us including myself are a a lot better trading more extended out charts like that.
Does that make sense?
Or am I talking crazy here?
I think so, man.
I mean, you know more about that than I kind of know.
I do think you – the interesting thing, too,
if you look at how the last all-coin season happened,
last all coin season happened i guess the last real one he had many ones at the end of 23 24 but
I guess the last real one, you had many ones at the end of 23, 24,
into the end of 2020 and early 21 or yeah yeah you saw eth run once that made a new all-time
high you haven't even really seen a new all-time high for ethereum factored in based on you know
factoring inflation yet so i feel it, the next time you see
that, and I think I don't have the chart in front of me, but it was like end of 2020 where you saw
a true new all time high for ETH, then that would establish the next all coin season. Um, I do think
that soul is strong too, because that's like one of the bigger ones. So yeah, I mean, I agree. I
think once you see soul at a true new all-time high
factoring in inflation then you see it happen when's that going to happen probably 28 you know
it could be early 29 i mean it could be could be a couple of years i think you'll see it happen i mean
it's funny you know people talking about how everybody's been calling for all coin season
for the past three years i mean when do those people calling for all coin season for the past three years. I mean, when do those people calling for all coin season finally, you know, give up?
Could be a year or two, you know, that kind of situation.
I mean, what I'm just curious, if we don't see all coin season this year,
will everybody be saying we'll see it in 2027 or will they give up?
You know, there's kind of that narrative, you know, so that's kind of the thing I look at it.
I just don't think it's going to be, you know, anytime soon.
But I think if you can get into the right alts, you know, middle to later this year, you're going to probably generally outperform Bitcoin based on history.
But, you know, you got to be careful, too, obviously, because you don't always know what the right all is going to be.
I mean, is it pumped off on?
Is it i mean
obviously i'm joking with the meme aspect of it but i mean you know uh there's the hype one i mean
i think it's diversified kind of makes the most sense you know 15 to 20 i've always held like a
lot of them i sold out immensely in october but i've always held like a lot of all coins because
you never know and that's what i'm kind of planning on doing you know later uh this year early next year kind of based on others versus bitcoin based on that type
of stuff but i think it'll be a few years man um you know i think what you said about solana makes
sense so yeah and and soul looks ah man it looks atrocious man but it's like the bear in me kind of wants to come out
because i see like the on-chain activity it's like bro people are starving man and i really
do not blame them they are starving um and you know i look at btc right i looked at the
that it put in back in late November.
And I think to myself, yo, it's been bottomed out for about two months.
What usually happens when a low isn't taken out for more than two or three months?
Usually a massive range, a six-month range, seven-month range seven-month range and i think that's that's the one thing that kills all
coins man it's not btc going down it's when btc does nothing except ping pong in a range
um because of course like people start playing on leverage and all that stuff and maybe you get one more attempt at like 100k right um
but you you actually do need to see a major starting to lead and
brent maybe it's a hyper liquid maybe it's definitely not it's definitely not like a
privacy coin to be honest it's definitely not a privacy coin and
dude i remember i i went on some late night space um i think right as like monero was topping out
like pretty much right at the pico top of monero excuse, when it was approaching 800. And I remember I had asked someone like,
hey, what do you think outperforms from here?
Do you think it's like, actually, no,
it was shortly after Monero had peaked
and it went from like 800 bucks
and then it had that complacency shoulder, if you guys remember, to like 600.
And people were like, all right, like this is the rally to a thousand, right?
I remember I asked this person, what do you think makes more sense?
Jumping into something that's basically parabolic.
Monero went parabolic or something that's coming off of a bottom
and yeah he uh he wanted to make a bet with me where he would think that in six months from
from uh that point when monero had that complacency balance of 600 from that point in six months after that he thinks monero would outperform pump and
i i i just can't see that man because evan doesn't privacy usually trend
for i mean i i don't want to you know call deja vu or anything like that but
doesn't privacy usually trend at like the later stages of a bull run or within like a mini bull trend.
People start messing with privacy.
They wash some tokens.
They shield it and then they go it off.
Isn't that the way it usually happens, Evan?
And then the market just like implodes.
I feel like, yeah, you know, there's not enough of a sample size for that.
But the only sample size, you could compare it to,
I mean, if you compare it to 2017 into 2018,
it just imploded with everything there.
So that's not really, I mean, I guess it maybe was a little bit later
if you look into it really closely, maybe, but I don't think so.
If anyone knows, let me know.
But 2021, yeah, it got some hype later on. I think this time is more so that big money is trying to use it to just take profits, you know what I mean, without potential, with kind of staying under the radar.
because you look at Monero, it's, let's see,
it was at seven or it almost hit a major fit level
like right at 800, it's not down 43%.
It was funny too, because I jokingly said
when someone's on this space, we all make mistakes.
I'm cool with the Burlion, no hate, no disrespect.
I respect everybody's opinion, but somebody said
like it's going to five grand or whatever.
And I'm like, oh man, that's such a sell signal.
You know, whenever you hear that, it's always like 90% of the time time that's kind of that sell signal but you know i i would say yeah later
kind of in the cycle privacy coins it just seems like it seems like big money was just using these
to wash some stuff you know zcash then monero and i i think that's about it i think you know
nobody's once bitcoin dumps to you know assuming it dumps to 70 or 60K at that point, I mean, I don't think there's going to be enough of an incentive to kind of launder or wash anything for privacy coins, in my opinion.
So I think you've seen the last of privacy coins for a minute.
Maybe I'm wrong, but we'll see.
Yeah, I do remember that space i do remember that space uh really really really clearly evan
um eem also made a new year to date high small caps doesn't that mean that all season is coming
brother if eem it just made a new year-to-date high,
and it's actually blasting in price discovery.
Like, it made a new all-time high after five years.
EEM, that's the emerging markets ETF that Uncle Joe talked about
during our space on Thursday, which was insane, by the way, guys.
If you didn't catch that space
do yourselves a favor and listen to that we had like well over a dozen speakers and we streamed
that day for like four plus hours man i love it when we host spaces like that yeah i would say
long term it means all season yeah but i think you know the thing too you got to realize is like
all could still outperform bitcoin and still make lower lows that's that's the thing too just like
during pandemic i mean eth outperformed bitcoin you know through 2020 through pandemics through
all sorts of crap but that doesn't mean you know just because you outperform bitcoin a little bit
that's good, like cool.
But that doesn't mean that it's going to be immediately all coin season.
I mean, you could see EEM season.
I mean, it depends how you even define EEM season or whatever, because I think it'll come down a bit with the S&P 500 and all that, but I think it'll still outperform it, you
know, just like the Russell probably.
And that's mainly based on monetary policy. But I think once you get into the end of QT, people first go into the safer
things that are more risky, like your Russell 2000, your EEM. And I would argue those are safer
than all coins, obviously. I mean, I would say it's like a more medium risk, kind of like Bitcoin
at this point, which I think most of us would consider something that has the market cap of Bitcoin to be like a medium risk type situation. I don't think you'd consider it,
you know, high risk unless you're like, you know, somebody still in your mom's basement who works
in HR and, you know, never had a girlfriend at like 28 years old or something, you know what I
mean? And you're just too afraid to invest in Bitcoin. I mean, it usually goes both ways with
those type of people.
But yeah, I think it's going to take time, man.
I think we got to see, you know, six months of generally,
six months to a year of generally like the EEM kind of outperform the S&P 500.
And then after that, it'll kind of move over into alts,
you know, starting to outperform S&P 500,
you know, continuing to hopefully outperform Bitcoin
for the ones that are strong.
So that's the main view there.
But I just think if the market comes down, bro, and oil gets that money going in, you know, especially energy, then you're not going to see it yet.
But I mean, a crazy altcoin season.
I think that's, you know, at least 2028 is kind of the earliest you would see that.
So, yeah. Jeez, man, two more years. that's you know at least 2028 is kind of the earliest you would see that so yeah
geez man two more years evan brother that is a hot minute i mean so but you're talking like
i mean 2021 was kind of an anomaly man it's such an anomaly like you we had helicopter money um
dude that is really difficult man it's so difficult but bro like just one one quick thing i mean the
thing that kind of screwed us up this time is because everyone and their brother released a
meme coin like imagine if all that money that went into Trump's meme coins, Portnoy's meme coins, you know, everyone and their brother's meme coins.
If that money mainly went into, like, the top 20 market cap, you would have done freaking well with your Solana, your Cardano, your Chainlink, you know what I mean?
There was just so much stupid money that got scammed this time.
There's, like, multiple millions of altcoins.
Like, it's just so different, you know what I mean?
Yeah. this time there's like multiple millions of all coins like it's just so different you know what i mean yeah yeah um all we have to do is take a look at q4 of 2024 like that i think that was um
a massive liquidity expansion wasn't it like you had u.s money supply expanding um global money supplier was expanding as well but it's mostly us
that that i think attributed to that like you look at things like again what what what uh chill guy
did and go aft and z dude i think that was mostly americans buying all this um I don't think Asia participated much at all.
The Asian bid is usually like the L1 trade.
That's what you see with like BNB and so on.
I don't know where the ETH bid is coming from.
I'll be real institutions maybe maybe maybe maybe eth follow
silver at some point right maybe like next year or something like that because eth is trading right
now at 300 bill uh could it theoretically 10x um within within like a one-year time span not
my next year but when it starts trending could eth
pull out a 10x move you would need nation states to buy this thing just how nation states are
buying precious metals it's definitely not retail i do not think that this metals rally whether it's
gold or silver palladium platinum i don't think it's retail man um i think the retail top was you guys remember a few months
back where you saw people literally lining up to buy gold and all that stuff i think that was a
retail pop and after that it was just like trad fi global trad fi um not global stratify uh nation states yeah small caps what's up man
uh yeah you know i you brought up last thursday space with uh who'd you say it was uncle you're
talking about david right uncle joe joe joe joe carlis there okay i was talking about David Levinson. Oh, yeah, I usually invite him.
Oh, man.
During the second half.
So, yeah, yeah, he's a character, man.
He's Jimmy Hart from, like, 80s wrestling era, man.
He's Bobby the Brain Hanan, dude.
He's Paul Heyman.
You know, for anyone watching the wrestling,
you'll know the names that I just mentioned.
That guy is awesome.
No matter, I mean, he's a super contrarian view, and it's good to listen to it at times.
Or honestly, it's good to listen to it all the time, right?
Because you don't just want to be stuck in one mindset.
But that was an awesome space last week.
That's why, you know, everyone should tune into these spaces and listen to it, because
you never know what you're going to get. But anyways, I actually, that night, cause that was my first time being, um, introduced to David,
never spoke to him before. I didn't know anything about him. So I joined one of his spaces and, uh,
I was, it was probably for two hours, just me and him talking, going back and forth. And I wouldn't
say he cooked me, but I would, I kind of just sat there and listened and let him cook me because anything that I had to say, uh, I was wrong.
So, uh, like literally a lot of those guys operate on these spaces.
I mean, that was on Wednesday.
That wasn't on Wednesday.
Right.
Correct.
So later that night, cause he hosted his spaces.
I was just, I mean, I was fascinated by the guy because he was giving such contrarian viewpoints, but a lot of them made sense. Like, it's not like what he was saying was
just a typical, you know, bear mindset. Like he had a good case for things and clearly he's a
smart dude, no matter what you say, the guy is extremely smart. So I went on his spaces,
everything I said, I was wrong. Even the way that like monetary policy works and how the Fed works,
everything was wrong, but it was a good, it was good for me to listen to it. And the reason why I bring it up is because I'm thinking
about, you know, how emerging markets are ripping. And just the last couple of days,
I've been saying to myself, like, what would David have to say? And, you know, for broader markets,
what I would say when it comes to emerging markets is that ripping, right? It usually means that sentiment's
improving and capital is rotating into higher beta assets. Um, and you know, David is, I'm pretty
sure he's long low beta right now, which he has a good point because money is rotating and we're
seeing it into, you know, consumer staples, um, healthcare, maybe not so much insurance, but what's the other one?
Consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities. But historically and traditionally, for broader
markets, it means that money's rotating to higher beta. And EM equities are sensitive to commodities
and global growth. So their performance basically just tells you
that investors are pricing in friendly or macro backdrop rather than kind of hiding into like
US safe havens, which again, that's broader. But I think that the point is true, right? We're in
an easing mode when it comes to the Fed. And David told me we weren't, but I think we're in an easing
mode, right? Balance sheets expanding, we're injecting liquidity.
And for Bitcoin, I think it's constructive because, again, historically, Bitcoin does
better when global liquidity is expanding and balance sheets are expanding and dollar
cools off.
Obviously, there's some inflation, but it's cooled and you can't really debate that.
So emerging markets strength sort of happens in that same regime.
But it doesn't mean that Bitcoin follows it immediately or rips immediately.
We saw that throughout the past and we're seeing it right now.
But I think it just keeps Bitcoin, you know, and it says the environment is more supportive for harder assets, commodities, and just alternative stores of value, which we're seeing with metals.
Gold and silver hasn't gotten up to Bitcoin just yet.
And then for crypto, I think it's just a signal, again, not confirmation.
Despite how we might feel about it, crypto is still the furthest end of the risk spectrum. So EM strength just kind of tells you that risk
appetite is warming up, but like true crypto risk on, especially alts need more confirmation,
right? Like, like Bitcoin dominance is rolling and maybe not Bitcoin dominance,
but Bitcoin rolling and stable coin growth and retail flow. So, you know, I think that EEM being
up is basically the market saying that we're comfortable taking more global risk again.
And the environment where Bitcoin and crypto tend to thrive is just that. So, you know,
they're not moving tick for tick, obviously, with emerging markets.
And it's, I don't know, man, it's just a really interesting time to be around.
Typically, in expansion phases is when Bitcoin starts to find its bottom and trend higher.
It's just so much more than like an asset, than a balance sheet expansion phase right
now.
It's just a lot of indecision and indecisiveness with the Fed. And that's going to really
drive markets and obviously Bitcoin in general. So we'll see. I'd love to, I'd love to hear what
David had to say about my thoughts on EM, but maybe I'll join his space tonight and see and report back tomorrow
i'm looking at em right now and during its last peak that was in going into march of 2021
and during that time that's when like uh that first initial wave of all coins was uh was topping out
um initial wave right you had like all the defy tokens top out around that time
um synthetics ave all that stuff was like in the process of topping um some other alts too and then right after eem topped i think eem topped soon after the iwm actually so maybe there's some
signal there between the iwM and also the EEM.
And now it's just like, when is the crypto market going to recover after what happened?
Oh my gosh, dare I say it? What happened on 1010 on October 10th during that liquidation event?
And many alts still have a ways to go to hit those wicks.
But I think if Bitcoin goes above that wick, which is like 100, 100, 2K,
I think we're off to the races.
I think we're off to the races for at least a rally on ETH to like 4,000.
If that happens, right?
If that happens.
My gut feeling, like I'm starting to get this gut feeling that like maybe ben cowan is right
and this year for the most part ends up being like a nothing burger at all um yeah like
from a sentiment perspective i think this is like the lowest sentiment could even
could even go in my opinion because sentiment usually relies on all coins um and with alts
right now like there aren't many trending alts right now outside of like your random things
right like we had white whale trending a few weeks ago now you have the penguin token you had ai
trend for like two or three days and then that just got destroyed So it's like an active traders market, I would call it.
It's a traders market.
If it were a trending market, ETH would be treading week after week after week.
But it's just not.
It's clear that now we're just in a pinged range.
And I would hope that BTC closes this monthly,
coming up in a few days, this monthly close, a bit above like 93K. I would say if you had a
monthly close at 93, I think that would be good. But closing below the yearly open
for the first month in the year, I think, Evan, wouldn't you be like kind of terrified if that
were to happen? Like the first monthly close in the year is actually below the early open that would not
be great at all i mean bad if you're yeah bad if you're holding a lot of eth good if you're trying
to get cheaper prices i mean but yeah i mean it would coincide obviously with what we um well
actually 2020 i'm trying to remember from because 2022 it took a while to kind of come down.
I think every time it happens quicker, which is good if you're looking to get in quicker.
I think ETH could bottom as early as like April or, you know, May, those kind of areas.
So, I mean, yeah, not good, but not a surprise.
a surprise it already looks atrocious i mean so it's hard it's hard for things to look any worse
It already looks atrocious.
on ethan bitcoin than they already do unfortunately because they mirror so much of 2018 and 2022
but like i mentioned the good news is that it's probably gonna i mean we're seeing like this stuff
happen earlier like some of these bearish signs we didn't see in 2018 until like the second half
of the year these bearish signs we didn't see in 2018 until like the second half of the year. These bearish signs we didn't see in 2022 until April.
So we're months ahead of schedule, which is good, which means we should bottom out earlier.
The only bad thing about that is there's diminished returns.
But I think, you know, at this point, if you're buying something with the market caps of, you know, Bitcoin and ETH, you know, you're happy with a 2 or 3x on Bitcoin, you know, into the end of the decade. Or you're happy with or three X on Bitcoin into the end of the decade,
or you're happy with double that on ETH into the end of the decade. So I think, yeah, that's the
big thing to look at. I mean, my 200 two-week SMA on ETH probably should hit that at like,
I don't know, somewhere between 1800, 2000. So that's my guess and where you'd bottom out for Bitcoin, maybe 48 to 55K.
And yes, in this scenario, Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin on the way down.
So, I mean, in terms of like, if you just want an all-coin season based on ETH outperforming
Bitcoin, you've technically been in one since April of last year.
And you technically were in one from August of 2019 all the way until the end of uh
2021 which was what one and a half let's see what two and a half years essentially so i mean it
depends how you define all coin season and all that but yeah yeah i kind of have a feeling man
that like the next big market top happens before the having like you're gonna have a having during trump's
during trump's final year dude um and then you have to ask yourself like if if we really are in
1997 right the peak of the peak of that bubble happened uh in late 99 and then you had a few
laggards catch up uh between then and the summer of 2000 you know that history that that
history repeats itself right history does repeat itself but it often rhymes right um and usually
every 30 years there's like a market trend that does tend to repeat itself right usually every
30 years you have some kind of like mini blow-off right? You had the, like the, like the,
the World War II peak, right?
Wasn't it like in the late sixties and then the seventies,
it was like a lost decade.
And 30 years later you had the.com boom and bust.
And then 30 years later we were here in the, in the AI,
in the AI bubble.
My question is Evan, bro, dude, like solana has air below 115 there's really nothing below
that point maybe 90 bucks but i mean we all know what happens usually when certain lows are
revisited you typically have like either a small deviation like what btc saw in 2022
we visited 17k again we bought that 15 um. But with altcoins, it's a bit
different. You remember in 2018, right? Like many of us thought that like 250, 200 or 250 was the
low for ETH. And once that got retested in like November of 2018, it just shat the bed. And I
look at Solana and it's like bro i understand on chain
is great right but you actually need the underlying token to appreciate otherwise like people are just
dumping their soul for these shitters they sell it back to sold and they sell their soul for usdc
so there's really no active bid for the actual token itself right and when that happens like whales just get impatient they dump their
stack and uh they wait for they wait for lower prices and there's no high cap right now that's
leading i think you would need hyper liquid um to lead the market as it did uh last year when it
bottomed at eight bucks and yeah maybe your scenario actually does happen, right? Like whatever downside happens, happens from here to May.
And I agree with that.
Like I'm a bull at heart, but like I'd be a lot more confident once Powell is out of office because, I mean, Trump at that point becomes in charge of the money printer.
And he obviously wants rates at negative.
He wants to turn this into 1980s Japan, which at that point,
I think you'd have that mega blow-off going into the halving,
and you'd probably psych people out with the whole,
the post-halving year is super bullish, which a lot of us, including myself, fell for, right?
But I think that was all because of the Trump token, right?
That kind of threw a wrench in everyone's plan.
That was the punch that Mike Tyson talked about, right?
Everyone has a plan before a fight until they get punched in the mouth.
And that punch in the mouth was Trump was trump and melania token which i
know you also um talked about right like if uh the new money i came into the space and grew their
money didn't dabble into into things like that like you'd probably see solana at like 700 bucks
you probably would have seen still at 700 link at Link at like $100, ETH at like $8,000, $9,000 if a lot of this stuff didn't happen.
But for a lot of us, playing on-chain, it's actually been beneficial.
But there's definitely not the same amount of winners that there were back in 2020 and 2021 i think the amount of winners from this market cycle have been dramatically
less than previous cycle it's just now everyone that's in crypto uses twitter whether as before
like i didn't really i don't really think there was a need to be too much on social media i really wasn't on ct that much or even on
youtube i just knew that as long as i buy as long as i buy things like ethereum if i bought some
things uh like like luna um and avax i'd be i'd be fine right that's that's kind of what the
mind frame was during that market cycle right just buy more
during every 30 percent dip and sell um anytime like a new all-time high um would be done like
50 above the the old one right like luna once it cost 20 bucks man after it had that correction
and after it went to like 30 40 bucks it's like all right i'm gonna
sell some after every five to ten dollar incrementation right same thing with soul
going into price discovery and all that kind of stuff sorry man i kind of yapped there for a two
for two yeah yeah i mean a lot of good points obviously um i was just gonna mention on soul
i think the really big point to look at is going to be like the low we saw
around january ended january of like or in january 24 2024 and the low we saw multiple times in
february of 22 february march of 22 which is right at 80 bucks and that would be around let's see
from the top we saw pretty recently that'd be around a 46 correction
so you know that's what i think but i mean rule of thumb most things probably will have that type
of correction um soul is going to be one of the ones because how well it's done that it'll probably
lose its uh its 200 sma um you know kind of go down farther on the moving averages than a lot
of other things but
i think as long as you hold 80 you should be good um going under 80 is not good for soul i would say
um that's just like a diminished you know very diminished returns gain and then you kind of
go into relic space um like a lot of you know things that haven't done much in the last i don't
know four or five years like your your dashes youres, your iotas, your Bitcoin caches, your, well, Bitcoin cash, that, that maybe not
count. That's done better than people have thought, but you know, a lot of that old stuff,
no one really did like your makers compounds, you know, weird stuff that no one talks about
anymore. That's where it gets into that category. But yeah, I mean, 80 bucks I think is a good deal.
That would be my guess for a
bottom on soul and um that's rule of thumb what i think for most all it's in the next like six to
eight months so yeah and soul at this point is like six years old when eth was six it had defy
season the compare the comparison man is almost like night and day uh when eth was six
you had all these like crazy apy forms and now it's like you compare it with soul soul is just
kind of in nowhere's land right it's just like uh it's like a meme coin launchpad platform and
launchpad platform and maybe an airdrop platform right i think between uh
ethan soul so has definitely had like a lot more opportunities when it comes to um
to things like airdrops definitely um i'm excited for jupiverse like you just you get free money
just for clicking a few buttons, man.
Some people actually get angry, dude, which is weird.
Mario, what's going on, man?
I saw you that you requested, so I brought you up.
Hey, what's up, buddy?
What's up?
Pretty good.
You heard me?
What's up, man?
Malo, malo, malo, malo, malo.
Malo, malo, malo, malo.
And by Cal, bro.
Man, if people actually think that retail, the apes, did what they did for, you know,
they pumped GameStop, bro.
I don't know what to say, bro.
Everything starts through institutions, big money, you know, and then we come in.
The lucky ones that caught it in early. But, yeah, man, everything will start with big money, you know, and then we come in. Look, the lucky ones that caught it in early.
But, yeah, I mean, everything will start with big money coming in.
I know that people said, oh, you know, when Bitcoin starts retracing,
we get that liquidity for all coins.
It didn't happen.
Now they're talking about, oh, we're on to gold and silver retraces.
We'll get some of that liquidity.
I just think, you know know on chain is just doing bad
now and i'm happy that evan said two years for all season because i got way longer i'm just prepared
to wait longer i think it's going to be a few more years and uh yeah man it's just it's it's
not looking too good not not too good and listen the only coin there's only one coin out there that retail understand
what it does and i think this is going to be a a big player which is a coin that i hardly even
own that much which is xrp retail understands that xrp is going to take over the banking system you know and if institutions know that when they say you know what's crazy you
know what's crazy you know what's crazy mark um outside of xrp i think like the other coin that
retail just loves man can you guess what it is?
I bet nobody can guess what I can't even name another one. I think that's your
Yeah, Sean actually looks pretty good if you looked at the chart recently
Yeah, it looks really good looking at it right now yeah it's pretty constructive like it's it's
it's like uh my god i almost i almost put in xpr instead of xrp i kind of want to look at dude i
wish spaces had like a a uh a video streaming feature man i really i really do i really do but whatever it is it is what it is like if you look at the
trend on on uh on trx it's like this slow consistent bid up where there is most all
they just have these like they have these patterns where it's like all right the dump occurred it
does nothing for a few months and then it has a huge gap up there's nothing for a few months. And then it has a huge gap up. Does nothing for a few months. Has a huge gap up.
Declines by like 70%.
Does nothing for a few months.
Whether it's TRX, it's like this super slow bid.
Dude, it's literally like the tokenized version of a leveraged S&P 500.
That's what TRX looks like, man.
It's a slow, consistent bid over the last six years which is
such an anomaly well that's where i think correct me if i'm wrong i think that's where a lot of
asia onboards a lot of their tether it's all through tron so we usually when you see tron
going up usually that's a good sign that uh that the asian side of the market is onboarding tether
which you know where's that Tether going to go?
You know, so usually Tron doing well is a good sign for the crypto market.
So, you know, that's something I keep an eye on.
So I like that it's looking good.
It tells me that Tether is getting minted
or onboarded onto the Tron ecosystem
and where it goes from there.
You know, you guys be the guests, be the judge.
Dang, that's actually some pretty good analysis, man.
Thanks.
Wow.
I never really thought about it.
I never really thought about it that way, man.
I know Justin's son is probably like the biggest bag worker when it comes to devs outside of like the Solana guys.
I would just say like the only thing that's kind of weird with Tron is that there hasn't really beenchain Tron season outside of like that week and a half maybe two weeks that we had in the
summer of 2024 with like Tron Bowl and like Justin Sun's dog or whatever I think they tried copying
BNB and Solana during that time period and and after that it was just like dead um i think even ton ton
trended during that time on chain the summer of 2024 was really man that summer was really wonky
it was so wonky man you had you had a bunch of noise all over the place during that time period.
I don't know who's actually going to be bidding things on Chain on Tron,
but as far as Tron, the ticker itself, definitely, man, definitely.
Maybe at some point there actually will be that third chain outside of base and soul where things trend,
because ETH mainnet's kind like dead and has been dead for
almost 18 months now yeah almost 18 months maybe 15 months yeah about 15 months since like the
election rally and all that stuff mainnet hasn't really seen a lot of uh robbie wasn't it it was
so first they went to base and then thrown then trx whatever it, and then Tron, then TRX, whatever it was, and then back to
Solana again.
No, it was actually like ETH on chain first.
ETH on chain in 2023 was actually amazing, dude.
And even early 2024, mainnet was insane.
I think it was after Brett went to half a bill or something like that,
it was like, oh, dude, like, we got to go on base and all that stuff, right?
And then that's when base kind of took over main net.
Yeah.
And now it's just people on the floor.
But you see the problem here?
You see the problem here?
Like, jumping from chain to chain, why not all at the same time? problem here? Like jumping from chain to chain.
Why not all at the same time?
It's just liquidity going from chain to chain, dude.
The same fucking people.
Yeah, that's what it is, man.
It's the same exact people.
And I think we saw that with BNB season.
You remember last year in like September, October?
Yeah, lasted like three days.
They're all rocked at the same time every project rocked at the same time it was yeah yeah it started with aster um my gosh man aster wasn't even that long ago and it seems like
ancient history now but yeah not so boring with a history lesson but basically aster is like this privacy enabled
decks or whatever makes i mean it was making a bunch of money and it had the writings on the
wall to be like a top 10 token maybe top 20 not top 10 but it's a top top 20 for sure at that time
um it was making more money than hyper liquid day after day week after week
and 10 10 happened, right?
That huge liquidation.
And people were like, you know what?
I'm not going to use these products anymore or whatever.
And yeah, it is what it is.
And during that time, you had multiple tickers on BNB go to 100 mil plus, 200 mil plus.
You even had the CEO of Bin like tweet out a ticker with um it was like this
this character from cyberpunk the game cyberpunk um 2099 i think it's called i think i'm wrong on
the year but it's called cyberpunk 20 something i don't know what it is 2077 i think it is cyberpunk the cyberpunk game and um he used that main character with like with like
not a direct ca but he told you the name of the ca right and it was made it went to like 200 mil
um and then it rugged like 90 he apologized or whatever and then it rugged another 99 and
another 99% and whatever.
BNB season lasted like a week tops.
You also had the BNB Dog with Hat.
I played that.
That was a decent one.
And that only lasted a few days as well.
So, yeah, it is the same capital.
It's the same exact capital on Solano where it's like,
if there is so much as a hint of FUD or someone related to the team
or a trader tweets something out that's not good, the token just rugs in 90 minutes.
These on-chain markets, they move so fast.
And honestly, it's atrocious.
And it's not really going to attract a lot of new people.
You need more success stories, in my opinion.
Like, I'll say this.
If the Penguin token goes to, like, half a bill, then I think that'll restore hope.
But if it tops out less than, like, 300, then it's just going to be, like,
all these other memes that have have come and go um but you usually need like a big winning story to inspire people to
buy what's up i hear yeah i'm in i'm in tropical park man right now doing my six mile walk
uh robbie what about what about what about yeah what about that mean? I think it was called Nero, Nero, that hit like 1.3 billion,
but then it had another one named the same that hit like 400 million.
Like, what is this?
It was the different teams competing with each other in the same.
Crazy, man.
Crazy.
Yeah.
Yeah, I think like the Nero on Seoul was the one that went to like 100 million plus
and then there was one that already launched on eth and then vitalik shouted out the one on eth
and the one on eth ran to to a bill and there ended up being like three neros because there
was like the solana nero that came out and then there was another one and
there was like this huge fight on a spaces or whatever and there was already one deployed on
eth before that and that was one that got recognition because it was like a cto i got cto'd
i think it was like i think it was like uh yeah vital shouted it out, and he put some posts on CTOs and all of that,
and how he supports the community, blah, blah, blah.
And the crazy thing is is that Binance listed the Nero on Sol and on ETH.
You're right.
Which is so weird, man.
That's how I found out.
That's how I found out.
Yeah, yeah, like tell me you don't
care about the market without telling me you don't care about the market like some people they just
want to make money on your fees and whatever man um that's just the market that that we're that
we're trading in uh or that we traded in at that time but uh small cap, Louie, is there anything else
that you guys want to talk about
as far as like markets
and all that stuff?
Like anything else
that you guys want to touch upon?
Not really.
I mean, I pretty much covered everything.
You know, again,
I'm getting bullishly optimistic here.
I think we have,
I think Bitcoin's a beach ball underwater.
I think it's time to start flipping from that cautious.
We have a really, really long time before anything happens in this market mindset
into more of a, let's take some shots here.
That's how I am.
That's how I'm thinking.
That's how I'm positioned.
And if not, I try again from a little lower, right?
So going in with the understanding, we can go a little lower, but at the same time, tons
of key altcoins I'm watching today, I mentioned Hyperliquid up 12% on the day.
That's bullish.
That's bullish for the entire ecosystem.
It's a leading altcoin.
It was all last year and the year before.
I know, I think Mars' name, he mentioned GameStop.
I mentioned that earlier on the call, like If GameStop's going to start ripping and that whole meme stock craze is going to kick off again one way or the other,
that's a risk-on indicator for me, especially with the IWM or the Russell ripping and the crisis coverage.
So I'm getting optimistic here.
One thing, man, that I always wonder about the GameStop, why in the world did Michael Berry sell so early, man?
It's just crazy.
I thought he said today that he's been buying.
That's why he kind of had a little talk today.
Oh, he said?
That's what he said.
It came out today that he said he's been buying and he's expecting a short squeeze.
Oh, shit.
Because he sold, I think, like $15, $16 GameStop.
He got in like a $2.
It's insane how he sold so early, but still made a lot of money, you know?
Yeah, I like the stock.
So Michael Berry's back in the market?
Yeah, he's long game stop.
He's long game stop.
Yeah, he's short Palantir, short NVIDIA, long game stop.
Actually, so am I, believe it or not, and I didn't even know he was.
But yeah, I mean, a lot of these mega cap stocks look distributive, right?
And I know some, I think it was small caps, I think mentioned earlier,
but it really does look like we're seeing a lot of capital flows, right?
Out of these leading mega cap stocks that have been pretty much
been in a
bull run for three years, the looking distributive as far as the charts are concerned, trying to time
the drops on these stocks is tough, right? Don't get me wrong. But with the Russell ripping and
these mega cap stocks looking the way they are, I've been arranging for the last couple of months,
looking a little distributive. That's also an indicator to me that like, okay, big money, big institutions have made a lot of money in these big names.
And they're now starting to take profits on those positions and rotate down the risk
curve, right?
They're not going to take all these profits and say, oh, okay, I'm done.
I'll see you later.
Now it's like human greed is still real.
It's very much real.
And so until we're fully AI robots
and we have microchips in the head
that control fear and greed,
humans are gonna have that emotion, right?
So as long as we have greed,
we're gonna have speculative asset classes runs.
And that's what I'm looking for here.
I think it's time.
I really think it's time to start getting a little bullish
here on crypto when the sentiment is bleak
and we're seeing all these things
that i just mentioned kind of starting to perk up here so i'm optimistic and positioned that way
uh until proven otherwise yeah i mean i think you make a good point man like it's it's clear right
like look at meta look at microsoft um those downtrends, that money has to go somewhere. And it's been rotated.
Look at consumer staples.
I mean, Costco, not a new all-time high, but it's a new high of this range today,
almost back up to $1,000.
Look at Walmart, Home Depot, same thing.
It's true.
The low beta names are getting bids.
Utilities, consumer staples, and health care do you like the miners here
say that again do you like like the bitcoin miners here oh my god yeah i mean i i love them man i'm
i love a few of them i'm you know heavily invested in a couple like iron cipher, Terra Wolf. You know, I got a very small position in BitFarms
just because, you know, I like their,
I like their, basically their like build out plans
and they have a lot of energy in the pipeline.
But yeah, man, Iron Cipher, Terra Wolf,
those are, I think these are great companies
with really, really good leadership and, you know, teams that come from the hyperscalers, right?
Like a lot of guys from Google are working on Cypher's team now. Same thing with Meta and AWS.
So yeah, I definitely like the miners now transition to AI computing. And that's why I think this week is such a big
week for them indirectly, right? Microsoft, Meta, reporting earnings. And then also the HBM guys,
SK Hynix and Samsung as well. So this is, I mean, this is a big week. Like we get some, some good forward guidance on, uh, CapEx and, you know, nothing too new
on supply constraints when it comes to HBM for Samsung and, and Hynex.
I think that, I think the SMP is going to get a, you know, a one to 2% bid pretty quickly.
So we'll see what happens, but do you like the, the miners Louie?
I do.
Okay.
I like, I like those names. I, names i uh for some reason i don't know just
i i was only bidding the ones i'm familiar with like like uh stuff like riot and mara
i know a lot of those names you just mentioned are a lot more of the newer ones and
probably your your better returns will come into those but yeah I like where they're at, right? I played the miners quarter, like end of Q3, early Q4 last year, hit a nice couple of trades like on Riot and stuff
like that. Then it started getting like over, it seemed like a crowded trade to me. I got out,
which was good timing. But yeah, now they're, you know, those miners are coming off of,
you know, multi-month downtrends, wherein, again, I see the Russell
ripping.
These are mid to lower cap speculative stocks, I guess you could say.
They're branching into that energy sector, the AI sector, so they have a little more
use case than just being specific Bitcoin miners.
Yeah, technically speaking, I like where they're at in the charts.
I like where they're at.
So I'm long a couple of names, but Riot and Mara.
But I have been keeping my eye on some of those other names that you mentioned.
They do seem to move a lot more in a sense of a percentage gain.
So yeah, I do like where they're at.
I'm positioning long in those over the last couple of weeks,
as well as some crypto stocks like Coinbase.
I even have some shorter dated stuff for a potential bounce out of MicroStrategy. That's been in a seven month downtrend with little to no bounce at all. And yeah, I like all these crypto
related stocks as well as buying some altcoins here. So I'm getting bold up on the sector.
Obviously, we may have some more work to do. We might have a little more chop, maybe Bitcoin stocks as well as you know buying some altcoins here so i'm getting gold up on the sector obviously
we may have some more work to do it might have a little more chop maybe bitcoin steeps the lows
but again i think we're in the general area so uh yeah i like i like where your head's at with
that for sure well yeah and i mean you're seeing that run up from from those names and i mean
specifically if we talk about riot you know they finally they they're getting moving when it comes to AI and high performance computing.
They signed a deal last week for a specific, I think it was a co-location, some sort of power deal with, I don't remember who it was.
I'm blanking right now, but that's good.
And that's what we're going to see and continue to see for the next couple of years from those companies who have grid-secured power.
Right now, grid-secured power is the gold of AI.
We don't have enough energy to power the demand for the build-out of AI infrastructure.
And that's why companies like Iron, companies like Cypher, even Riot and Marathon, I hope they start getting going
to and kind of waking up a little bit, which I think that they will. Your moat is how much power
you have. We have some of these, the most notable and largest names on the planet, entrepreneurs,
Elon, Jensen, Eric Schmidt, Bezos, all these guys, everyone's looking for power. And we kind of saw it with Applied Digital, too. I'll touch on it real quick. They reported earnings last week, and the CEO, Wes Cummings, he basically said that it's becoming much easier for us to strike deals with these hyperscalers because they're not in a position to negotiate anymore. They're competing against each other. It's not that the infrastructure providers and the
energy providers, they're not really competing anymore. It's like these hyperscalers need to
lock in power because they can't leave any CapEx on the table or else they're going to be in trouble.
And that's what we're seeing, right? They just signed another deal with, it was Applied Digital
had CoreWeave and they just did another five-year multi-billion dollar deal with
a, or maybe it was a 15-year multi-billion dollar deal with a hyperscaler that wasn't named. And
it's just because these large hyperscalers, they need to lock up as much power as they can as fast
as they can before the multiple increases. And I think that we're going to start seeing these
miners are starting, we're getting into earning season again, they're going to start reporting, I think we're going to start seeing some more deals, like I
expect another deal from Iron, I expect another deal for Cypher as well, they're advertising,
you know, 370 megawatts of grid secured power across three different locations, two in Texas,
one in Ohio, you know, spread out different power grids, and then, you know, same thing,
Iron has three gigawatts of grid-secured power.
An extra 1.4 gigawatts are coming online at their Texas Sweetwater site in April. I mean,
I don't know how you're not, you can't be bullish on that, right? They just secured a Microsoft deal, five years, $9.7 billion. It was a cloud deal, so it'll be a little bit
different than co-location. But nonetheless, five years for $9.7 billion dollars it was a cloud deal so it'll be a little bit different than co-location but nonetheless five years for 9.7 billion dollars it's worth two for 200 megawatts they're doing 50
megawatt installments four of them 200 megawatts at a 10 billion dollar valuation for five years i
mean that's pretty insane to to think that they have now another 2.8 gigawatts like available or
maybe not that much available like to market but they got another 1.8 gigawatts available or maybe not that much available to market,
but they got another 1.4 coming to the market in April. That's crazy. Power is definitely
one of the main bottlenecks, if not the bottleneck in AI. It is. It's the main bottleneck.
We can't scale fast enough and create enough power fast enough for the computing demand, which is going
to be really interesting to see. So I think that any company that has grid secured power
and a management team that has already done deals with hyperscalers and has that reputation locked
in is definitely set up for the future. Because look, 2025 was just the uptrend in CapEx. I think
we're going to see the same thing in 2026 and that's why
microsoft and meta reporting this week are so important so i'm pretty excited um and
yeah let's get after it we'll see what happens
yeah that's an absolute cook session man yeah i want to thank uh small caps louis and mar for
coming on uh also evan for coming on louis is there anything that I want to thank small caps Louie and Mar for coming on
Also Evan for coming on Louie. Is there anything that you want to say before I?
Wrap up the stream here for today. No, I covered everything
Yeah, I'm good just long and strong long and strong here. It's time for us to
To give another go here
muster which muster what you got digging the couch cushions. And, you know, I always like to say,
be the bid you wish to see. Right. So like someone's got to be first to do it.
You know, awesome, man. So that being said, guys,
I want to thank once again, small caps, Louie and Evan for coming up here.
Mark, thank you so much for coming up to requesting guys thank you all whether you're listening here live or to the
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So with that being said, I'm going to go ahead and sign off. Amazing stream, guys.
Thank you to all the speakers. Streamed for well over two hours, and we discussed a plethora of things.
And we'll see you all tomorrow
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