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Market Talk- HUGE breakout for crypto soon!? Stocks melt up!?
Recorded: Jan. 9, 2026 Duration: 1:38:52Space Recording
Short Summary
In a lively Market Talk session, participants discussed the bullish trends in equity markets, with the IWM and SPX hitting record weekly closes, while crypto markets lag behind. Predictions for the S&P reaching $10,000 by summer reflect a strong growth sentiment, despite caution surrounding economic indicators and market volatility.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. . so
so I'm going to go back to the back of the day.
I'm going to go back to the back of the day.
I'm going to go back to the back of the day.
I'm going to go back to the back of the day.
I'm going going to...
I'm just going to...
I'm just going to try. I'm going to go. It's I'm sorry. Yeah. what's going on, guys?
Ah, I see one of my favorite profiles in all of CT here in the audience, Big Hagrid.
I'm going to go ahead and send Big Hagrid a co-host invite.
This is going to be a great show.
Oh, my goodness, man.
What a great way to start off the end of the week.
Big Hagrid's here on stage. My goodness, I. What a great way to start off the end of the week. Big Hagrid's here on
stage. My goodness, I'm excited. Prometheus, I'm going to go ahead and send you an invite
to speak, but happy Friday, guys. Welcome back to Market Talk, brought to you by ABB.
My name's Wabi, and hope you're all having a fantastic Friday. We had the jobs data come
in, nothing burger as expected expected it seemed like it was priced
in on along any possibility and probability in all markets it's always priced in man no matter
what you can think of it's always priced in always and um as per usual the the latest trend has been equity markets rip and crypto doesn't really do much.
But compared to last month, we are trading in a higher range.
We're trading between 89 and 92K.
Most of last month, we were kind of just trading between like 84 and 88.
We barely maintained above 90K at all whatsoever.
And we also have the IWM ending the week at probably,
I think it's the highest weekly close that the IWM has ever had.
Highest weekly close for the SPX.
Highest weekly close for the IWM.
The Qs look like they want to go into price discovery.
And, you know, I'll tell you what, I went on a call with Big Hagrid yesterday,
and he asked if I was bowled up.
And truthfully, I told him, I think the S&P is going to go to $10,000.
I think the S&P is going to go to $10000. I think the S&P is going to go to 10,000 by the summertime.
Dave Hunter mode, man. Dave Hunter is, he's been right, or he is right this time. He was just,
he was just early, man. This is a David Hunter market, I guess, for the equity markets at least.
the equity markets at least um crypto usually lags behind we'd literally need to see the s&p
at like 72 7300 before btc gets anywhere near 100k and that just is what it is but i want to
see what the guys have to say i don't really have much thoughts uh i know i've been going on a ramble
during every single intro session this week where I just yap on for 30 plus minutes but
I haven't had Louie or Big Hagrid up on the stage and I really want to see what Big Hagrid has to
say. One of his last tweets was basically mentioning that 80k low and it happened.
So Big Hagrid is our local market wizard.
He's a wizard.
He's Gandalf from Lord of the Rings, except a lot bigger.
But anyways, guys, if you guys can go ahead and show some love to the space,
you guys already know what to do.
Hit the spaces tab. Once you guys do that, you'll see a nice little link above our profile pictures
that says x.com slash i slash spaces smash up
the like button hit up the retweet button all that good stuff or repost whatever it is they
want to call it spaces are recorded as usual and uh we're just going to go ahead and get straight
to business this week it's first uh official week for 2026 insane weekly closes across the board for the equity markets
uh we'll see how the weekly close ends up being for crypto i would like to see uh 94.5
above 94.5 for uh the first weekly close first long first long weekly close what i mean by that
is like you know i understand the new years happened on Thursday or Friday depending on where you are in the world
But it wasn't actually a full week. It wasn't an actual
Full seven days of equity market trading and all that good stuff
so I'm gonna I'm gonna consider Sunday the first weekly close of
2026 and I think if we see above 95k it's off to the races and we see uh at the very least
an echo bubble where btc can trade at like 102 104 and we'll see a nice wave of breadth but
i'm gonna go ahead and pass it on over to big hagrid big hagrid what's going on man how are you
how are the pig farms, man?
It's great to have you up on the stage.
I'm looking forward to the discussion, man.
You have no idea
how much we've missed you here on Market Talk
we were talking about.
Hey, you can ask
our resident
ski resort manager.
My brother in skis.
Oh my goodness! My brother in skis, man.
But, no, I mean, from the profile picture that Hagrid's rocking,
it looks like he's our brother in woodshed, man,
taking people out to the woodshed.
But, anyways, man, we had the cardone brothers up
here we were talking about bananas and soybeans but man i haven't heard anything about bananas
recently that's interesting so the price of bananas over the last 15 years um have relatively
been the same but lately they've actually gone down in costs depending uh
i mean depending on where you are right but like i think they're like 15 cents cheaper
than where they were trading at and i'm not trading at but what they were selling at
in 2009 dude you know um but uh yeah this jobs report seems like it was a nothing burger man
i'll pass it over to you yeah yeah no i uh i'm on the same page i mean
i don't think there was a whole lot of signal i know we got uh we got consumer sentiment today
and there were some interesting headlines from that i guess high earners are less optimistic and low earners are more optimistic
than they were at the last the last time they took the data so that's interesting but um yeah I mean
there's just in this little range there's just such low signal dude like I'm looking at the
chart right now I mean I think if you can you know solidly get above
like 92 93 we can talk about 100 but i was honestly i didn't think we'd reject as hard
as we did there in 94 i thought we'd probably just keep going um so i mean i don't know i think it's
pretty pretty negative ev to get crazy conviction one, one way or the other within
this little range. Um, cause however it breaks, it's going to be violent, you know, it's gonna,
it's gonna move hard. So I think, I think we're going to get more crab. We're probably going to
get a move towards the end of the month. Um, I think this is some yearly open shenanigans, but yeah, I mean, we, we pumped
right off the yearly open, right? So it makes sense that we're kind of messing around here, but
I wouldn't hate a stab into the seventies. I know that might be asking for a lot now.
You know, I know like the, the minor cost is about 80k we went down to about 80k so i i see the
bull case right i see the case for the bottom being in and the longer we chop i think the more
bullish that is actually um but i think we're going to need some more chop and form a little
base here before we can really do anything but yeah yeah, it's been, it's been pretty, pretty
treacherous trading the last like 60 days. Um, you know, there's no way around it. So I don't
know. I don't, I don't think there's a lot of, a lot of signal here really. Like I think, uh,
I think we're going to have to wait and see really is what we're going to have to do. But
as long as equity stays strong, as long as we keep kind of building a base here,
I mean, I'm bullish 2026.
Like, I don't think we're going to be
in like a year-long downtrend.
You know, I don't think we're going to get
like a classic bear market,
even though we did top like two today
of the whole four-year cycle, right?
I mean, that was pretty wild.
But yeah, I'm not in the camp of 12-month bear market.
So you think it's going to be a good year for our fellow bank owners?
I think it's going to be a good year for crypto, man.
I think it's going to be a good year for crypto.
I do.
It just depends whether we're going to bottom here, whether the bottom's in at 80K, or we're going to go back.
I'm really not even looking for much if we're going to bottom here, whether the bottom's in at 80K, or we're going to go back. I'm really not even looking for much if we're going to be bearish. I'm looking for 77.
I'm looking for high 70s if we get it. My problem is just looking at the current Bitcoin bottom,
and then looking back at the March to May bottom, and then even the bottom before that, like, it's just
the complete opposite.
You know what I mean?
Like, Bitcoin doesn't leave lows behind, you know, like it leaves one low, like it leaves
the last low and then it goes.
You know, like if you look at in, what is it, February of this past year, you know,
we took that low in March and then we took that low in April and then we just went vertical. Right. And then the whole range from 2024, we took every single low, you know, so we're doing the opposite. We're doing like this is how ETH bottoms, you know, like this is the issue I had is like this is how ETH bottoms is it leaves every single low you know we left the low at 80k we left the wick low at 83 then we had one at 84 then you kind of have a low at 86 like we've just
left every single low and that's usually just not how bitcoin bottoms out so maybe it's a regime
change i don't know i'd love to hear what you guys think. I'm a little skeptical.
That's all.
Dude, you have to trust in your fellow bank owner
that they're going to turn on the twat, man.
Dude, somebody needs to.
Yeah.
GM bank owners.
GM bank owners.
Yeah, dude.
I mean, GM bank owners is like Jamie Dimon and all those people, you know?
They are bank owners, indeed.
Yeah, the true bank owners. But let's hear from Louie. Louie, what's up, bro? Welcome, man. Haven't heard from you all week. hello hey man sorry i was my kid came down into my office i was uh scrambling around
i just ran back i heard you say my name
what's going on what i missed what did tuck say anything good he was just talking
about soybeans man that's all he was talking about he was talking about soybeans and and the long end
that's what he was uh that that's what that's exactly what he was yapping on about the long end
yeah he's bullish soybeans he's long lean hog futures the usual he puts soybeans in
his chili he told me today i i wouldn't doubt god never wabi we can have it we can have a
chili discussion later maybe but yeah i was i was going off about chili on market check today yeah um interesting market once again it's been a pretty pretty interesting market here over the
last month or two um equities yet again continuing to melt up um showing strength right showing
strength um i'm still not totally sold on it just yet, to be honest.
I'm still a little skeptical.
I still am going to give this probably another week or two into January, into Q1,
before really kind of flipping my bias, which is kind of cautionary on equities,
specifically high caps in general, your Apples, your NVID Nvidia's, your Google's, your Palantir's, you know, all these structures on these stocks, high time frame still look vulnerable to me.
Obviously, other than Google, Google looks strong, but, you know, I could potentially be seeing a sweep of the all time high here.
could potentially be seeing a sweep of the all-time high here.
But the other one's just looking vulnerable for downside,
looking more distributive, have been kind of lagging
and more or less ranging in a market that these mega cap stocks
have led this three-year bull run rally in the equity markets.
And I'm just not sold on the strength. What we could be seeing is obviously a rotation
out of these mega cap stocks into other niches and value stocks that haven't really done well
over the last year or two. I just assumed that we'd probably see a more starker sell off due to the fact that
these stocks were so overly heavily weighted in these major indexes. But stock market proving me
wrong, right? At least for now. Again, I'm going to give it another couple of weeks, probably a
week and a half, two weeks. If we're like sitting here, you know, three weeks
into January, S&P still trading into fresh all-time highs, NASDAQ's pushing all-time highs,
Russell's chatting into price discovery. You know, that kind of thought process
doesn't really apply anymore, but not, you know, not fully sold on it just yet. I mean, we're only nine days into
the new year. We could be setting the yearly high early on a lot of these major indexes. So
still a little more cautious on that aspect. There are stocks that do look good as far as value
that we're playing to the long side. I really do like the oil stocks, like oil companies, you know, something like a Chevron or an Exxon.
You know, I was even, we were eyeing those stocks before even any of all this Venezuela stuff happened.
But they look prime.
Like a lot of these oil companies have been pretty much putting in consolidations for since 2022 on top of, you know, their early 2000s all time highs.
So you have high timeframe consolidation into high timeframe demand that if it, if they
do break out, you know, that that's going to lead to, you know, not, not like a couple
of day rally that'll lead to a multi-month, even year long rally and minimum and some
of these oil company stocks.
So really bullish on those um
as well as some other stocks sitting at value that we're playing in the discord um but yeah still
skeptical waiting to see uh how kind of this strength holds up like is this going to maintain
like are they going to be able to maintain all-time high after all-time high after all-time high
um in the equity markets and if they are great right because then if if that's going to be able to maintain all time high after all time high after all time high in the equity markets.
And if they are great, right? Because then if that's going to be the case, there are tons and tons of stocks sitting at value prices that I could, you know, redeploy capital into to the
long side and play that. But the risk is to the downside. You know, a lot of the good news that
the market wants and has needed is already kind of out there and has
come out over the last two months uh wherein you know there's a lot of crazy stuff going on in the
world right and um i feel like the market can be more uh you know negative headline sensitive if
we do get a true real you know uh some sort of event right i'm not gonna be the guy trying to
call black swan event but if we were to get something legitimate, I feel like the market would be sensitive to that.
And moving over to crypto, you know, same old stuff, like just equities chatting.
But yet crypto, just, just, just, just weak, weak, lethargic.
And looks like it wants more downside. You know, I was pointing to Bitcoin sweeping all of its multi-month range highs on Monday
and literally it ticked above, you know, all our multi-month range highs and it's been down only
since, right?
And it's something I've kind of been expressing caution to the guys in the discord and on these spaces is that you know if bulls can't
push price above 94k uh and sustain above there you know we're at we're at risk of a swing fail
and we're at risk for lower right because if you're looking if you're looking at the bitcoin
structure on the you know mid to low time frames there are tons and tons of untapped lows below us from here where we are now at 90K all the way down to 80.5.
And in my experience, Bitcoin does not like to leave those untapped lows behind at a major
inflection point low. Usually, either it'll sweep them, maybe you get a three drive low,
maybe you get an extended or continuation to the downside.
But regardless, tons of untapped liquidity and unswept lows below us. We swung fail our multi-month range highs. And I'm expecting more downside in crypto. It just is what it is.
And it's just, it's just very strange to see this amount of weakness in crypto
with this amount of strength in the equity markets.
That's why I'm saying I feel like one asset class is bluffing here, right?
And I think it may be equities
and that's why I'm kind of still pretty cautious in the crypto markets right now
and pretty much cashed up and even swing short
some names like Zcash and Sui and stuff like that. in the crypto markets right now, and pretty much cashed up and even swing short
some names like Zcash and Sui and stuff like that.
So kind of the same tune and outlook
that I've had the past two months coming on these shows, Wabi.
Hey man, you don't think that the balance sheet going up would have any effect on uh
all assets for the upside i'm not an expert on that so let me just be clear um i would say yeah
right uh balance sheets going up money printer turning on all that fun stuff interest rates
coming down inherently that's bullish right and the weird thing is like we're
seeing that uh being priced in in the russell like the russell today making a fresh all-time high
um usually and historically that's a bullish leading indicator for crypto right you have
the russell like last cycle 2021 who knows if we're even talking cycles anymore right we probably
could be breaking away from that so that's just kind of forced to have it here.
But in the 2021 bull run, you had the Russell breaking out into price discovery.
Late November 2020, total crypto market cap broke out that same week.
And to the day followed that year long bull run where the Russell end up topping November of 2021.
So did total crypto market cap.
And they both came down together at the same time.
So there's a big disconnect here.
There's a big, big disconnect where you have the Russell breaking out into price discovery.
Granted, it's not, it keeps poking above all time highs.
It hasn't, I wouldn't say it's truly breaking the price discovery unless we get maybe another week or two close above like 2,600 on the Russell. I'd say that's more of a confirmed
break into price discovery, but there's a big disconnect between the high risk beta assets in
the stock market and crypto right now. It's pretty interesting to see, but you could see the lack of
bid and lack of liquidity in this market right now.
Maybe it does return if equities remain strong and the Russell keeps chugging along here.
But right now, it doesn't look promising for that just yet.
Yeah, I know the Russell gets its name from like potato chips, like Russell potatoes, right?
like russell potatoes right but lately anytime the russell has outperformed um outside of uh
q4 of 2023 the russell has been like an expired potato like you get excited and then it's just
expired potatoes hagrid knows all about that but hagrid dude do you think the bottom is in for
avichy because this thing is ripping dude
i think you mean russet potatoes wabi i think you mean russet potatoes
oh look at you trying to correct i mean russell potatoes i mean
yes it has a good name man good name but
the bottom might be in for for the bank owners
man i think yeah it's up i think you get one more and you get one more little dip and that's uh
and that's probably that for avicii i mean yeah i did not think it was good they rolled something
out today i'm pretty sure right like they rolled out like actual fiat on ramping which kind of before that it was like a a concept and not a real thing so uh yeah i think uh
i think i think you get one more higher low which i'm i'm bid yeah so
and pump fun also started their buybacks I think the first one was yesterday.
And they used basically all of their fees that they generated over the last 24 hours to buy the token.
And these tickers bottomed out within a week after or before Christmas.
So from mid-December to late December, they all put in lows.
And I won't front, man.
Like, I don't want to, I don't want to jinx it, man.
But like, what if the Russell actually blows up to like 280 or something like that?
Like if you click on the five year, the year are you going on google again are you charting on google yes dude he said the five
yeah five years click on the five year bro yes yes that's how i do my stock research. I just go on Google and I put IWM stock price.
And I've got my time frames.
The one day, the last five days, six months, year to date, one year, and five years.
Wow.
You got to love it.
Yeah, dude.
Or go on CoinGecko and do some TA.
But for real, man, out of all the new tickers,
it does seem like VC Monad and Pump are probably going to get a strong bid here.
And on-chain is just a mess, man.
You've got White Whale just blowing everything out of the water,
and then you've got these small toppers at, like, 5 to 20 mil.
That seems to be, like, the ceiling right now for on-chain.
And that 6.7 coin, I think that's, like, a good case study.
Like, if that coin came out in 2024, like, in Q1 specifically, like, Q2 during the Ansem era, and 6.7-7 was trending dude that thing would have gone to
like at least to where like popcat went which was like two bill um i mean look at chill guy dude
like if you look at the trend 6-7 is like what was way more viral than what chill guy was doing in q4 of 2024 um i think it just speaks to the
overall health of like the altcoins right now it's going to take like i legitimately think it's going
to take like six to seven months oh my god six seven months six to eight months of uh of time
before we get even like a third of that liquidity back.
And I say that because if you look at like the last liquidity destructive event before Trump,
I would say it'd have to be Luna.
I think Luna was like a lot worse than FTX because Luna took out firms and it basically made the entire industry like bankrupt in in many ways and ftx
was kind of like i guess that that last stab but i think luna was a lot worse because it destroyed
like d5 protocols and all that to your point like yeah thinking about, all the liquidity or a lot of liquidity last cycle was...
And I mean, a lot of the, you could say, price appreciation stemmed from DeFi protocols.
And then as soon as that got ripped out, the space kind of fell apart.
This cycle, a lot of it's just been perp-driven and OI-driven from a price action perspective.
As soon as 10 10 happened and
all the traders got wiped out i mean is it not the same thing some something like that um and
i would say like defy yields went to meme coins because it like the returns that meme coins gave
it's kind of the same thing as like as long as these d5 protocols run in 2020
2021 because they didn't really last long right like tokamak was one that i liked last cycle and
that only lasted for like two and a half months and if you look at the average lifespan for a
meme coin over the last few years as far as like capturing uh most of the upside gains it's about two and a
half months right you look at whiff whiff came out uh in like late november um and if you add two and
a half months to that whiff was already trading at like a bill uh it traded a bill going into late
february so um you look at other stuff like brett within two and a half months, you already captured most of the upside gains.
Yeah, Popcat, Chill Guy, like the list goes on and on and on, dude.
But where I was getting at is like it took about a year and a half for uh the market to regain a lot of that liquidity
so luna went to zero in may of 22 and then by the time we got to november of 23 that's when
seoul launching became a thing a lot of east stuff was chatting and i don't think this time would be
any different i think trump and melania was the same thing. And like, there's this weird, there's like
this weird semi troll thing that people like to do, which is make fun of anyone that says that
Trump and Melania coin was destructive to the market. And I think that's cope. Because the
reality of it is you look at the price action across the board for on-chain and just alts in general since Melania and all that stuff,
it's been trashed. The ceilings are extremely low.
The ceiling last year was like 400 mil, and that was caused by UselessCoin, Kida, and Troll didn't even blow through 300 mil and troll got every single listing known to
man. And that was when stocks were melting up and video was chatting hood was chatting.
Coin was chatting. MSCR made a new all time high. And you're telling me that something like troll
couldn't even like touch half a billion dude. That like pathetic and then you go back to what occurred
earlier on and it was trump and milania coin people were trying to long that shit on leverage
on hyperliquid got blown out um a lot of people likely went all in to be honest during the
inauguration and just closed their eyes and waited a month and they were just down a lot.
And it takes a lot for people to regain liquidity to actually bid the markets again.
And people don't put that into perspective.
And even if the Fed is adding assets to their balance sheet, it does take a while for that to trickle in, right?
It takes a lot for that to trickle into the market.
But Prometheus, you can go ahead, man, and give your thoughts.
You're on mute, by the way, if you're speaking, Prometheus.
You're on mute.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, my bad um thank you for
saying something i was i was off wandering and pondering um and frolicking in the fields um
but with that being said yeah it's like there's this dynamic within the market right now and just
like something just does not it's like something something does not feel right. We had equities do relatively well today. We saw,
I mean, for the majority of the day, equities were green across the board. And not even for
the majority, for the entire day, they've been green across the board. We've seen, you know, gold chatting, you know, oil is now up about 2% on the day and Bitcoin yet again, you know,
another day, right? Retracing all its price action. I have been enjoying scalp shorting this
along the way. We are heading into the weekend. So usually
we do see kind of death of volatility going into the weekend. But from a structural perspective,
just as like you said, how important, you know, Luna was to like liquidity and flows because it's the largest DeFi project there is,
you know, and it drove and DeFi drove,
you know, good majority of the flows
within the sector last cycle.
And once that died,
you saw, you know, large scale kind of collapse
and underperformance from the crypto space.
And now what do we see post 1010?
And people want to say like nothing,
quit saying things happened on 1010.
1010 was just another day in the whole grand scheme of things.
I call complete bullshit.
That was not just another day.
That was something that we'll probably never find about.
But the flows this year, for the most part,
have been driven from perps, right? They have been driven from people going on chain and
degenning, or they've been degenning on chain or they've been degenning through perps.
And usually what people would do is they would have you know, have money, they would trade with
perps.
And then if they see opportunities on chain, they would take some of that money out of
the perps account, go drop it in on chain, try to compound their bags and pull it back
back into the perps account.
And then just trying to compound your stack and appreciate, you know, your, your wealth.
Well, you saw, I mean, numbers are completely skewed. You know, there's ideas that
it's 40 billion that got liquidated. There's, you know, talks that potentially 200 billion got
liquidated. Right. But ever since then, we've seen no real on-chain runners. We've seen no
real appreciation in any of these underlinesings. And we do need that.
Like you had mentioned, when Trump won the election, people just shoved and forgot about it
and they came back and they had created wealth. Well, as of right now, you got to kind of ask
yourself, where is, you know, what else is there left to really
pump these markets? I think that there is kind of this idea that, you know, Bitcoin
can just continue appreciating in price just because. And the issue is, is you don't have passive flows within Bitcoin like you
do traditional markets. Traditional markets can just go up because they can't, right? You have
billions and billions and billions and trillions, in fact, going into equities and, or not annually, but you know, the larger, the larger 401k,
you know, basket is like 42 trillion, right? And so billions and billions of dollars are just
continually flowing into equities, but crypto doesn't get that luxury. So you have to ask
yourself because it is more of a, you know, traditional market per se, where there is not passive flows and it's just strictly buyers
and sellers. There's not this necessarily continual buyer on the backside or that we
haven't necessarily created that Ponzi. We've tried through multiple different avenues and
ideas and perspectives, but we're not quite there yet.
And because of that, I asked myself and I think to myself, what is there left for Bitcoin,
right?
From a buying perspective or from a marginal buyer perspective this cycle right now.
impossible to answer that question because all of those answers have been exhausted, right?
And it's almost impossible to answer that question because all of those answers have been exhausted, right?
You had ETF was obviously one of the biggest ones. You had then ETFs for the other names like
Ethereum and Solana. That's out of the way. You had the digital asset treasury companies.
That's out of the way. You have strategic Bitcoin reserve. That's out of the way. We know that's out of the way. You have, you know, strategic Bitcoin reserve. That's out of the
way. We know that's not coming anytime soon. Clarity Act is getting pushed down the pipeline.
Does that actually do anything for the underlying price appreciation of the asset class? And I think
actually, if you're going to position around that trade, I personally would position around names
like Circle or more like stablecoin focused companies in place.
But as of right now, we broke back within the range.
I've been talking about it 91.6 and we again rejected right off that level this morning,
right off the pump we had from the pause in regards to the tariff delayed or the tariffs announcement being
delayed. And so many people are focused on economic data. I know Matt's a big proponent of
the jobs data right now. It's just for me and him and I are in the same thinking,
same frame of mind and thinking, but I just have to kind of separate myself from the economic data right now because I know what they're doing.
In fact, in how they are manipulating the data in probably a much larger way than what has previously been done.
And because of that, I just kind of have to forget about that as of right now.
My high time frame direction is obviously up
with unemployment. And the lower term timeframe stuff, I'm just not kind of letting it affect
my trade decisions right now. I'm just kind of focusing on price. And I want to see a trending
move. I want to see this market do something outside of this range. Get below 86,
go to Hades. I don't care. Go break 92 to 93 this, you know, hopefully this weekend,
except above at the beginning of next week, see a trending move up to 100K. Awesome. Love that.
As of right now, I'm just having to like scalp to our timeframes and it's obnoxious.
just having to like scalp to our time frames and it's obnoxious uh you know the on chain and
altcoins got like 24 hours of fresh air to breathe uh before we saw implosion so
i don't know we'll we'll see we'll see what uh what the rest of 26 has to hold we'll see what it has to hold.
Matt, what's going on, bro?
How are you?
Hey, good.
Wow.
This, damn it, stupid jobs day. I absolutely agree with Prometheus.
You know, I was going into this week and today hoping for a clear signal of like, you know, was what we saw over the fall.
You know, is this confirmation of bearish?
Do we see a rebound?
Can we get bullish?
And of course, of course, it threads the needle and job expectations miss.
But unemployment was unexpectedly better than they saw. So great.
It's straight down the middle. It's neither bullish nor bearish. It's just mixed.
And worse, I did not like, I don't think anyone liked that they went back and revised the previous months and moved those job gains lower.
In fact, I think it was the November month where originally we lost 100K jobs and they revised it lower to negative 170K.
So great, you know, not exactly what we want to read and see. But anyway, but right now,
what does this mean? I think a lot of TradFi are going to make a lot of noise out of, look,
unemployment went from 4.5 to 4.4, and they're going to declare rising unemployment dead.
They're going to declare jobs market fixed.
Even though we're looking at the week, we're looking at the last six months, job expectations
missed again, and the expectations weren't even that high. You know, we were hoping to see 50 and 70K on ADP and BLS.
We got 40 and 50K instead.
So like, to me, this confirms that our jobs market flat out is not growing.
It's sideways.
It's no growth.
It's not negative.
It's not negative. It's not negative yet, but I'm with Prometheus. I think
very short-term timeframe, I think the Bulls will regain momentum. You can see them already
pushing the indexes higher. I'm willing to bet next week and the week after you start seeing the MAG7 and blue chips
start catching a bid as everyone starts talking up earnings, which is less than two and three
weeks out. That'll be the next major talking point. Oh, how's Apple going to do? Oh, how's
Amazon going to do? Oh, they're all going to blow it out of the water. Maybe they'll see some
more revenues from AI, you name it. And so I think
that's going to capture the narrative. And short term, I think you see a lot of equities catch a
bid. But I think this is for Bitcoin especially. And it's very telling that Bitcoin technically finished red on the day.
I think that this is where Bitcoin can float higher and then put in that right shoulder on the very, very obvious head and shoulders pattern that we're all staring at, you know, with the left shoulder being early 2025, the head being summer, fall, and then the right shoulder could be right here in late winter 2026.
where Prometheus and a lot of other people are warning that, look, we plunge through all sorts
of support on Bitcoin, but then be careful when price bounces and floats back up to try to retest
six digits. That could be the final rejection. We saw exactly that in 2021 going into 2022. Everyone started getting excited again.
Price had a decent bounce off of the low 30s. It came all the way back up to mid 40s, 44, 45, 46K, right into the Bitcoin conference.
And then literally when the Bitcoin conference got underway, it was straight down to Goblin Town.
So we're going to let equities do their thing.
I think your big companies, your blue chips, your mag seven,
your et cetera, I think they're going to all report fine on earnings. I think it's going to
be great numbers. But we're going to have this same thing over and over until we see a real
reversal and rebound in the jobs market. We're going to do this exact same week is going to play out February 6th,
where everyone starts sweating the next ADP and then BLS unemployment numbers.
Guarantee it.
Because what was the big takeaway from this week?
It was a miss on both reports on job expectations and a revision to the downside of all the previous
jobs numbers that they had already released. And, you know, again, not to beat the dead horse,
but the bulls are making a lot of noise out of, oh, but look, the unemployment rate
went down a tenth of a point. But the smart money and all the TradFi
articles that are talking about this, they're calling this kind of a slight technicality,
kind of a bit of a bullshit because apparently the Bureau of Labor Statistics is saying that
participation rate went down. So it's not that more people found jobs. It's that BLS is claiming
fewer people were looking for jobs. And therefore, the rate of unemployment went down the 10th of a
point. And I can feel Prometheus rolling his eyes like, see, this is exactly the type of
silly manipulation just to get the headline to look good.
And he's probably exactly right.
But even if we don't trust him-
Matt, I literally started laughing.
I'm not even kidding.
I'm with you.
But here's the frustration.
Here's the problem.
This should have been an ugly day. But just because of that unemployment rate headline number, just because it went down a tenth of a point, you I cashed out all of my puts this morning.
As soon as I saw the reaction, like, wait, so both jobs reports missed this week, but because of a
technicality, unemployment rate went down. I got out of everything before 1030 this morning and a
good thing for it. I'm happy to sit sit largely in cash. You never sell your Bitcoin,
but I really think that I would not be surprised if a month from now, Bitcoin is trying to get
its head above six digits. Everyone's talking about how good this and that earnings was,
even though it's all in the past. Remember that all of these companies reporting earnings, it's all the shit they did in the fall in 2025,
in early, early winter 2025.
It has nothing to do with today and tomorrow.
And so we're going to do this exact same thing again
in the first week of February.
What's the jobs numbers that come out?
And yeah, anyway, so long story short,
we just have to play the hand we're dealt. I think price goes up short term, though.
Tina, what's going on, man? Go ahead and yell. Just yell on what's on your mind, brother. Do it as loud as you can.
Tina. Okay. No. brother do it do it as loud as you can tina oh okay no i'm ready i'm ready where's the energy
to yell yeah i'm screaming i'm screaming at the top of my lungs you have to man that's telling
me no i'm i'm screaming i'm screaming can hear it? Scream about the long end, man.
Talk about bonds.
I don't care about the long end.
I'm not worried about the long end.
I'm not so sure I agree with Matt.
I looked at the numbers this morning.
I looked very quickly.
And I'll be honest, I was too busy trading today to deal with looking carefully at these numbers.
But I think there are two things that you have potentially very wrong. And I'm not worried about employment the way you are. I'm really seriously not.
You seem to forget, and I don't forget because I look in the mirror and I see that I'm
in my early 60s, like every day of the week. You seem to forget that there's this giant cohort of people that are retiring every single day.
And that's not inconsequential.
On top of that, you may have people self-deporting in this country.
And I don't know how big either one is.
I think I looked at participation rate this morning.
I swear to God.
And I don't remember.
It went down.
Yeah.
Participation rate went down. No, it went up. I don't remember. It went down. Yeah. Participation rate went down.
No, it went up.
Participation went up.
I thought the numbers went up month over month.
No, no.
I thought it went up by 10 bases.
No, it went down.
That's how we got.
Are you sure?
Yes.
Because I looked at it very quickly and I was kind of surprised when I thought it went up.
I'll look it up for you while you're talking.
Go ahead.
Look it up for me. I got you. I when I thought it went up. I'll look it up for you while you're talking. Go ahead. Look it up for me.
I got you.
I'm pretty sure it went up.
But I'm not positive because, again, I told you, I looked at it really quickly.
I don't think these numbers are that big a deal.
And I will remind you because I remember this.
I was there.
I was trading.
It was probably about the same age.
How old are you, Matt?
Millennial.
So how old are you?
40? No, no, no.
Mid-30s.
Okay. So
in 1995, I was
34. Probably pretty close
to your age now, right?
Oh, wow.
I guess it has been like, wait,
60. Sorry, go ahead. I'm
interrupting. I was 34 years old in 1995. So in 1995, that was a spectacular year in the stock market, in fact, both 95 and 96.
And in 1995, if you go back and look, and I only know, I don't remember it, to be honest with you. I only know because Joe Carlos Sare had reminded me.
You had kind of punk job numbers.
And you had a market that went up 70% between 95 and 96.
Incredibly well.
I've got the participation rate for you.
It went down.
Tell me what it did.
Yeah, it went down from 62.5 to 62.4.
So a slight tick down.
Okay, okay.
I remember those numbers.
For some reason, I inverted them in my head.
And I thought it was the other way around.
But I looked at it quickly.
But I think this is a big deal.
You have a huge number of people
tritting out of the workforce every day. And the nature of work has changed dramatically in this
country. The number of people who are working non-traditional types of jobs
is huge. And this has been going on for years already.
I hear a lot of worry warts talking about,
oh, AI is going to throw everybody out of work.
And I strongly disagree with that.
Complete nonsense.
It's complete utter nonsense.
Yeah, I don't know.
By the way,
by the way,
unemployment going up
is probably the most bullish thing
to happen for stocks right here.
It's like literally –
Because the Fed's going to cut.
No, no, it's not even the Fed's going to cut.
It's not even the Fed's going to cut.
It completely changes the inflation picture.
And there's been a concerted effort to raise employment for the last three years.
I mean, go back – you don't have to believe me.
Go listen to Jerome Powell.
He said the labor market's out of balance.
We want unemployment higher.
Their own targets say that they want to get close to five they can't get close to five
so like you have to squint to see it go up like the the notion that like somehow rising
unemployment is bearish i don't know what what you're talking about we're just closing it the
market's screaming at you it's great this is exactly what it was joe joe broadening out of
the rally joe iwm hitting new all-time highs. This is bearish. Give me a break.
Can you hear me?
Joe, can you hear me?
Is that Tina?
Yeah, can you hear me?
You have to scream a little bit louder.
I don't know if he can hear me.
No, I can hear you.
I can hear you.
So Joe has been saying for a while, and I know other people as well who are specifically commenting on this,
small caps and mid caps doing well
early cycle early early early early early you know what else is early cycle you know
i backtested this for 14 14 different economic cycles that have been uh for the fed you know
what else runs really hard at the beginning of a cycle? Metals, industrial metals, palladium, platinum, silver, industrial metals, copper.
They run, they burn at the beginning of a cycle.
You know why?
Because everybody's actually going to do those CapEx expenditures and use those raw materials.
So this is early cycle warning signs all over the place, not late cycle.
Those things suck at the end of the cycle.
So I really disagree with you, Matt.
I think you're way off base.
I will not comment on Bitcoin because honestly, I think it trades like dog shit.
And I wouldn't own anything else in crypto because I think it's all bullshit.
I think this economy is really interesting.
I think there's a fuck ton of stocks out there that are incredibly interesting. Look at global
stocks. Pull up a
chart of VXUX.
And if you use a combination
of stocks and options,
I think you can outperform
the entire
crypto space in the next decade
by a lot. I'm
not a fan of cryptocurrency, and
I'm really dubious about Bitcoin at
this point, to be honest with you. I think it
trades terribly. So the market cap
weighted, I mean, look at
emerging markets,
EEM, pull up your chart, all you
technical traders,
tell me why you're not buying the breakout in EEM,
which is the emerging market. There's a ton of
stuff that's really interesting.
There's a ton of small cap stuff that's really interesting.
Hold on a second.
The EEM is the emerging markets ETF.
Okay.
You are breaking out of a box on this.
Yeah.
Okay.
I'm on Google right now.
Oh, Google.
Yeah, that's great.
So tell me, go look at this chart.
It's going back to September of 2007.
And people are saying, oh, this is bearish.
The economy is bearish.
2007?
You're breaking out a range from 2007 and you're bearish?
I'm looking at it right now.
I went on Google.
I may lose you in a second because I'm going to a building.
It's okay.
I have to go, too.
I have to get back to work.
But I have, like, an SOS from seven people to get in here because somebody's negative but um it's i don't understand it's it's i get it bitcoin's a basket
case like we're all disappointed in that if you have bitcoin um i don't tell you man listen to
the market market's telling you that this is bull bull mode i think it was a good point in emerging
markets i think they'll definitely outperform the SPY for a couple of years.
I think the Japanese stock market too has outperformed the SPY.
It's been like since 2021, since that drawdown.
I do think they will, once you go, you know, in five years from now, in the 2030s,
I think it will kind of reverse a little bit.
Next couple of years, they'll do pretty well.
I don't know if I'd bet on like Eem outperforming like something like exxon mobile occidental petroleum though but i do think
yeah next couple years what do i care about what happens five years from now like
the trading room well i think i think you should care about everything you know five to i like to
focus it out long term man i don't know i don't know yeah no i i hear you i mean if you're if you're allocating to that but to me like
you know after the monster run that mega cap tech is gone it's kind of pretty hard to fade that too
right like it's hard to fade any of this market i don't i don't know that's why i said it's really
we can argue about what's the optimal allocation. If this, this ETF that has
more of a U S focus versus a foreign focus has outperformed by, you know, 200 bps. Okay. That's
fine. I mean, that's a fair discussion, but the broader thing is like, where are people,
why are people negative? That's what I don't understand. Like it's just beyond me.
Well, I think the, the thing that I have the most concerns on is, you know, I'm with the people on, you know, Russell 2000.
That's mainly monetary policy.
I'm with the people on, I think that there's a decent shot, honestly, that ETH could outperform Bitcoin until the end of the decade.
Same with others versus Bitcoin.
However, a lot, I think the majority of people will still find a way to lose money with altcoins because, you know, you've got to pick the right ones.
people will still find a way to lose money with altcoins because, you know, you've got to pick
the right ones. What I will say is my concern is stuff like Palantir, stuff with the AI stuff. I
think that's a way, if you look at like PE ratios and stuff, like I think something, especially
Palantir is definitely going to come down next four to six months. My other concern, and this
is exactly what happened exactly a year ago, was good until the january fomc meeting
and then you had a long pause and everything paused and came down for a bit um so i think that
may be one of the catalysts that brings ai stocks down a bit that could be one of the catalysts that
also brings that bitcoin down another you know 20 30 percent i'll tell you i'll tell you something
evan evan here's something we can agree on. I will guarantee you, guarantee you.
Well, I shouldn't guarantee you.
I will say with an extremely high probability that there will be a 10% corrections by this year.
Without a doubt.
And you should be buying that.
Yeah, I'm on board.
Yeah, 100%.
I mean, yeah, I'd give that a 90% chance, 80% chance.
Yeah.
10 to 15%.
I think NASDAq could see 20 percent.
I would say it's most likely going to happen in the next six months rather than quarter four
of this year based on the betting odds with the Fed and all that. I do kind of like the,
I think housing, like the things I'm a little bit bullish on right now, obviously energy,
I think housing, like the things I'm a little bit bullish on right now, obviously energy,
Occidental Petroleum, I think is a good buy.
Exxon Mobil right now.
I think the money that will get bored with gold and silver will go into those for the
next kind of four to six months.
And that last thing I'll say quickly is I think the housing market, Trump's starting
to do some stuff.
I think the housing market could outperform the spy this year.
So yeah.
Joe, you want to know what's
hilarious man do you remember around this time last year it was last february i said something
and you and you confused me with saying hold on hang on hang on are you saying that you that that
uh that the trade is to just go all in on gold and then lo and behold gold ended up yeah you should have crushed that
man i remember that ever wabi dude like the whole space was just like going crazy and i'm like man
you know because my whole no the way that came up the way that came up was that i said i know that
the crypto market's in a problematic space when somebody's saying to go all in on gold.
Because Bitcoin market, you know, market talks talking about going all in gold.
That's not exactly a good bellwether for crypto.
By the way, in gold, and I have a hard time owning gold.
And I'll be honest with you. I think the whole argument regarding both Bitcoin, crypto, and gold, I think it's a very flawed argument vis-a-vis inflation.
And I'll tell you why.
Because there are some businesses which simply, by the virtue of their existence, they process inflation.
And they're continually raising prices as we go along.
And expecting the world to not operate on a credit system, your grandchildren are going to be really old, headed towards death before that ever changes.
And I don't think it'll change then either.
There's some really sound economic reasons for doing it.
So a lot of the notions that people have are highly flawed.
And there are great companies.
And you guys love to trade garbage.
You know, you can trade real companies and you can do it with options and make more money.
Real companies.
It's all real money, though.
Tina, what I'm saying think they just i'm saying is
what i'm saying is hold on matt matt what i'm saying is people trade true garbage and there
are real companies that do real business that create real products and services you're talking
about waste management should i be buying waste management? No, I'm talking about small cap stocks and mid cap stocks.
That was a joke. You didn't get it.
Companies that are growing and you can trade them with options.
You can get massive leverage, but they're real companies.
The fact of the matter is finding these, it's hard. It's not easy. I know you play around in the crypto market trying to find these magic things that go up a lot.
But there are companies that do that too.
And I think focusing on that is far more productive because finding those kinds of things can make staggering.
That's a load of crap.
It's just a statement.
It's really a load of crap it's just a statement it's really you can do that in any market you want
hold on hold on a second prometheus before i leave because i gotta i gotta go just let's move to
construction uh a constructive discussion um for all you ta guys okay pull up symbol xhb okay for those that are not following at home symbol xhb
so hello s s hb x like the apron x that's the home builders index you know all right yeah i
pulled it up on google and it's up five yeah tell me the signal that that thing said today after
after the job it looks bullish it looks bullish does it today after the job. It looks bullish.
It looks bullish.
Does it look bullish?
Do you think it looks bullish?
Okay.
Well, to me, that's your signal.
You want to talk about it?
Yeah, but why?
But Joe, but why did they do that?
What happened in the last 24 hours from the Trump administration that it had that candle?
Okay.
And do you, and do you, and then, and then tell so we can talk about but then tell me right but then tell me when it doesn't actually happen just like the bitcoin treasury fund what
is it what what does that candle do here we go they realize this is the bear narrative when tesla
doesn't deliver all of their robo cars it'll crash like okay good good good luck i have to run matt
it's always a pleasure we'll talk wait joe real real quick does that mean everything's bullish or does that just mean real estate's bullish real estate is a quarter of the u.s
economy my buddy quarter of the u.s economy okay gotcha gotcha home builders are not real estate
that's not real estate those are businesses this candle building building homes building homes for
people this candle is because trump said yesterday he's going to
splash $200 million to reduce mortgage rates. What about the affordability crisis, Matt?
The obvious next question is, is that even possible for him? That's the problem.
This is summer 2024 all over again when he's promising anyone who will listen a Bitcoin treasury fund.
Do you have that money?
Are you actually going to?
And, I mean, sure, it's exciting if you're holding options in this ETF before the announcement.
Matt, dude, there's this AI stock that I've mentioned here and there.
It's called Sandisk.
Sandisk Corp.
This thing is up almost 60% year to date.
I traded that yesterday.
It was really hard to trade.
I have some far out, small position of far out calls that made me some nice money today.
The thing was a beast.
Dude, this thing it's harder it
was harder to trade than trying to trade bitcoin or shit coins it's a monster yeah oh by the way
sandisk was around sandisk was around yeah that's a pre-2020 that's it i mean excuse me that's a
pre-2000 stock no no it was owned it got bought out by by by um by Western Digital, and got spun off from them and was a high flyer in the 90s.
DRAM is generally a commodity market.
However, from what I've heard, you have massive increases in prices in that marketplace.
I heard a guy saying that they're going up literally month to month.
Jensen Wong said the other day
that the memory market is going to be the biggest
market in the world.
I don't think that's far-fetched when you
consider how much demand
there is going to be for memory
from AI. AI is not going away.
AI is only getting bigger.
I think most people underestimate
the need in demand.
Don't forget robotics. we were talking about some of these uh like stocks in that sector specifically
intel and amd and intel and amd are neither neither of those companies are d-ram companies
you realize that right no amd is a gpu, and Intel has been a CPU company as a packaging company.
DRAM companies are different.
DRAM companies are like SanDisk, Micron, Hynix, Samsung.
Those are the DRAM companies.
Now, if Intel gets into DRAM, Intel is going to fly.
But this is all just like AI.
That's how I view them.
Yeah, it's all the same trade.
DRAM, CRAM, Chicken RAM.
Well, no, no, that's not true either.
Because in terms of AI, you've got NVIDIA.
You've got Broadcom for inference.
You have the companies like Google, like
Amazon, who are making their own
ASICs that are going to be
produced by Broadcom
and other companies together.
It's a big, complicated
market. And it's a massive market.
AI is like nothing
yet. It's still
tiny.
There is so much to this, and I think it's so underappreciated
how big it's going to be. I remember, I got to tell you, I mean, the people who are so
cynical, I used to be cynical like that. Now, I can't tell you that I always know how to make
money in it, but I'm not cynical about AI. I have seen in the course of my life.
So in 1982, I bought my first computer.
It was $5,000.
It was an IBM PC.
I want the people on the stage to guess how much memory that IBM PC,
it was an 8088 processor.
No, 8088 or 86.
I can't remember.
It was either 8088 or 86. 86 or 8088 processor. No, 8088 or 86. I can't remember. It was either 8088 or 86.
8086 or
8088. How much memory
came installed
on that $5,000
IBM PC in 1982?
100 megabytes. No, no, no.
Kilobytes. Yeah, it's kilobytes.
Kilobytes. Oh, my God.
Kilobytes. That's really funny.
No, no.
And the second question is, how much storage?
Laughing so hard that the mic cracking is gold, bro.
How much storage should it come with?
How much storage should it come with?
I'm talking RAM.
RAM was 64K.
That's what I was saying.
RAM was 64K.
I had two floppy drives 360k floppy
that's the five and a quarter inch discs that's before five and a half or five and a quarter
that's before the three and a half discs what could you even do with that i feel like you're
better off with two cups and a wire bro i mean you know black and white documents it was early it was early state it was early
stage my point is however i have been buying computers since 1982 because i like to have
current stuff i've i have no idea how many computers i bought i probably bought 50 or 80
computers and i'm not buying i'm just buying for myself uh i bought so many computers over
these i've thrown away so many computers but on top of that i lived through i didn't even know
what to do with the modem that i bought i had a haze modem i think was 1200 baud and i went through
all kinds of iterations on communications i had 56k baud. I had ADSL.
I got a T1 at some point because I needed it for the Bloomberg that I had.
I had cable.
I had all kinds.
I had an ISDN line, which people probably don't even know what the fuck that is.
even know what the fuck that is. But this underestimating this technology has been,
I made huge mistakes. I should have a hundred times the money that I have today,
had I not been so goddamn cynical. Being cynical on this stuff is not going to make you money.
It just isn't.
And these are real goods and services and products that people really want.
And I know I demand this stuff because I know I've been buying computers for years. I've gone through God knows how many phones.
God knows how many iPads.
And I don't even upgrade stuff at this point or something because I don't really need to.
But you can't be cynical on this stuff. You really can't be. It's so early and what you're
going to see in the course of your lifetime relative to what I've seen, it's going to be
shocking. I can't even tell you because I can't even imagine. I think there's a difference between
games. I think we're having two different conversations though. Go ahead, Louis. I'm sorry.
No, that's all right.
I think there's a difference between being cynical versus being cautious after a multi-year rally on something on this sector.
It's not like these are just going on the floor.
Rallies can go on much longer than people think.
I agree with that.
They seriously can't.
Rallies can go on much longer.
And by the way, here's another mistake I made.
I used to think that way too.
By the way, the rally in the 90s went on from started November 1994
when Newt Gingrich and the Republican Congress got in.
The Dow was like 3,700 at the time and ran through 2,000.
It was more than five years.
And nowadays, post 2009, and I should have been super aggressive in 2009, but I wasn't.
Post 2009, you had a different response to things.
You have a government which has become very activist.
And that matters because it changes the nature of the marketplace.
The only mistakes I've made is being too aggressive in the last couple of years
and I've had to tone it down because I end up getting too leveraged.
And that's a mistake.
You don't want to be too leveraged, but you don't have to be.
You really don't have to be too leveraged.
Getting too leveraged will hurt you, and you'll make mistakes with that.
But being bearish will also hurt you.
But net-net, being bullish and having some moderate degree of caution
will make you wealthy.
I had a friend who said back in the 90s, and I'll repeat this because it's really funny, and having some moderate degree of caution will make you wealthy.
I had a friend who said back in the 90s,
and I'll repeat this because it's really funny and it's really true.
He said, bulls make money, bears make money,
and pigs get insanely fucking rich.
That was the 90s.
And I'm not saying that we're in the 90s.
That's pigs get slaughtered.
But no, that's the saying.. That's pigs get slaughtered.
No, that's the saying.
But he said, he twisted it.
Pigs get insanely fucking rich.
Because in big fucking bull markets, pigs do get rich.
And the thing is sizing properly.
Because if you oversize things, you'll get shaken out.
And that is my biggest mistake.
Position sizing. I get too big. I get too bullish. And that is my biggest mistake, position sizing.
I get too big. I get too bullish. And I try to scale that back. But having position sizes that you can ride through for longer periods of time, look at Sandisk. Sandisk is like a $40 stock last summer. Just owning fucking 300 shares made you a fuck ton of money. There's so much out
there. If you're going to be cynical, you're not going to find it because it's not going to be
found by people who are constantly negative Nancy's. And there's a ton of really interesting
companies and there are new companies and that's going to take work. But there's opportunity.
There's staggering opportunity.
This is where I think we're talking about two different things.
Because I'm very bullish specific companies and specific technologies.
And I like the direction that AI is going to and currently driving our economy.
I do agree with you that I think it's very –
Name the companies. I think it's very- Name the companies.
I think it's very-
Sorry.
Name the companies you like. I'm very-
Name the companies you like. I'm very interested.
Name the companies. I'm serious. I'm really interested.
Sure, sure. So biggest names, I'm madly in love with Amazon.
No, it's small names. Small names are fine.
All right, all right. Fine, fine, fine.
Small names is where the real juice is.
Hold on. Okay. Small names is where the real juice is. Hold on.
Okay.
Biggest is small.
Amazon, Netflix, Robin Hood, and then smallest.
I really like what Iron, Cypher, CleanSmart, and Wolf are doing.
None of those are small.
None of those are small companies. Those are – small companies you've got companies you've got single digit they're single billion dollar companies you've got billion dollar
companies out here just a billion dollar two billion dollar companies yeah sorry to interrupt
i just want to ask you an important question how many stocks should somebody own in a portfolio like how many do you have approximately i'm curious
you know i don't i personally hold on i gotta i gotta turn my wi-fi on give me a second
all right but i know hold on i'll answer the answer the question let me answer the question
i know what god I knew hold on let me answer the question let me answer the question I knew what God
he cut out I think
I don't know if it's me
it's the joining
unjoining wifi
Tina I think he cut out
give him a second I guess
yeah
a lot of good points
it's passionate discussion guys
passionate discussion I like it i like it
how come oh yes wi-fi has got to be down yeah um okay can you hear me now yeah go on yeah
okay so if you're a really good analyst and i'm i'm not a really good analyst you're a really
good analyst 10 companies 15 companies are great to own um i'm honestly not a really good analyst. You're a really good analyst. 10 companies, 15 companies are great to own.
I'm honestly not that good an analyst, and I'm not that comfortable doing my own work and owning
only 10 or 15 companies. I've known people like that. I think you can use tools and techniques.
You can own some ETFs. You can pick some individual names.
There are ways you can structure your portfolio that get some juice out of it.
It depends on how aggressive you want to be.
I'm afraid to be that aggressive, but then what I'm doing lately is I'm buying, like, deep in the money options where I want some exposure,
and then I'll buy small, small positions with that.
Something that I can hold onto.
Before, I was buying more aggressive positions.
And I'll tell you, October 10th, I took a 10% hit on my total portfolio.
And I was like throwing up blood that day.
It was an awful day for me.
And I can't handle that.
I mentally cannot handle that.
10%?
It hit you 10%.
Man, I would kill for just 10%.
It was brutal.
I was down three times the market that day.
I said, oh, fuck.
I am really too leveraged here.
It was a bad fucking day for me.
But my point is, and that's the point about not getting too leveraged.
Because the fact of the matter is, particularly if you're younger, with time, you have decades of compounding ahead of you, and you don't have to be that aggressive or leveraged.
You just don't.
Well, market leverage is at all-time highs, is it not?
I don't know.
I don't follow the number.
I honestly don't.
Call put ratio, market leverage, you name it.
Market leverage is going to be at all-time highs anytime you're at all-time highs.
It's a fairly meaningless number.
You can throw it out, but it doesn't mean anything.
So you're going to have – after a catastrophically bad bear market, I guarantee you all-time leverage will be down a lot.
It will be to all-time lows.
Yeah, absolutely.
In 2009, leverage was really down in 2009.
Agreed, yeah.
The bottom of 2022, which we are all here for, the put-call ratio was subterranean.
So, yeah, you're absolutely right.
Absolutely right.
Honestly, I'll be honest with you, Matt.
Honestly, I'll be honest with you, Matt.
In my opinion, and again, I do focus on the market a lot, but I will tell you that net-net, you're better off focusing on stocks.
And I personally, I have a bit of a momentum bias.
I named you over half a dozen stocks.
That's what I named you.
I know all the stocks you own.
I know all the stocks you own.
But I think this is Let me ask you a question.
Tina, let me ask you a question.
Matt,
Matt,
none of them are interesting. Just FYI.
None of them are interesting.
They're not interesting.
None of them are.
By interesting, I mean that you're picking a name out
that i've never heard of that does interesting things and is inflecting on earnings and has a
chance to move up by a lot and i know some guys who are good at this again i'm not one of them i
wish i were but that's really interesting uh you name stocks that have, you know, I like hood too.
I think hood's going to be interesting over the long run.
But I mean, when I saw calls traded on it.
It's been incredible over the short run.
You don't even have to wait.
Right, but that's past.
It's already happened.
When I saw calls on it in like October of 24,
and somebody bought 10,000 contracts
of like the Jan 2026
25 calls
and I didn't hold it. I should have.
It was a mistake on my part. I didn't really
understand Robin Hood at all.
That was really interesting
and the thing went up a lot
and I didn't buy it. I should have bought it.
There are lots of
things out there, but is Robin, look, Palantir went from stupid low it. I should have bought it. There are lots of things out there.
But is Robin, look, Palantir went from stupid low levels.
I'm not bearish in Palantir longer run.
I think it's really interesting.
But it'll be a trillion dollar company.
But it's not going to knock the lights out on returns.
If you trade options with it, you probably will.
And maybe it'll become the biggest company in the world.
I have no idea.
But I will tell you that being bearish on companies simply because they're big companies is stupid.
Back in the early 90s,
you had people who were negative on Microsoft
because Microsoft had market cap
that they didn't understand.
Because how can Microsoft have a market cap
equivalent to the equivalent then?
And I don't remember what the comparison was.
Equivalent to DuPont.
Equivalent to Honeywell.
Equivalent to, I don't know, Ingersoll Rand.
And you look and see what happened.
I actually ran the numbers the other day.
And Microsoft went up 700x from the early 90s.
And Honeywell went up 26x from the early 90s and honeywell went up 26x from the early 90s so what happens is the companies
that have high growth and good margins and can reinvest in their businesses they just grow much
much much larger than everything else and that's how the market works so it's not that other
companies become small although some companies do become small and completely go away, like Enron, like WorldCom, like dozens of other companies that I've known over the years.
But there are companies that are around today that will be the biggest companies in the world and companies that are not around today that will be the biggest companies in the world in 10 and 20 years.
today that'll be the biggest companies in the world in 10 and 20 years. So this is what happens
in markets. But focusing on individual names and doing that kind of work, it's hard. I will tell
you, it is really difficult. But that's what will get most rewarded and figuring that out and not
paying too much for those things. It's a shame that Joe had to leave.
I know we had this ongoing discussion about...
He doesn't do that.
He buys ETFs for himself.
He's a practicing attorney.
But he's not researching individual names.
That's not what he does.
Yeah, but I meant like the outlook for 2026, something that I heard...
The outlook for 2026?
But the outlook for 2026 doesn't actually matter.
See, that's kind of bullshit.
That's the kind of discussion people focus on
when they want a bullshit discussion.
What really matters is finding those companies
where something dynamic is happening there,
their earnings are inflecting.
Those companies, in a poor market environment,
they won't do as well. But in a poor market environment, they won't do as well.
But in a good market environment, they might do really well.
So trying to find those names, that's how you're going to make a fuckton of money.
And it happens in good markets and bad markets.
And over time, if you're good at that, you'll make a lot of money.
Because the markets are net-net in a bullish configuration
most of the time.
But that's what will make you money.
Focusing these stupid discussions on macro
is a big fucking waste of time.
It is the biggest load of horseshit and bullshit
you can have. And that cost me money
too in 2023.
What do you mean by macro?
That's what Joe loves to talk about.
That's exactly what we were...
I know because it's easy
because it's an easy conversation. No, it's not
interesting. It is interesting.
It's not interesting. It is
bullshit. It's not bullshit. It will stop you.
It's complete and utter
bullshit and it is not how you will
get rich. You will not get rich
discussing macro.
What are you going to mean by macro?
Macro is a waste of fucking time to discuss.
Tina, Tina.
It's seriously a waste of time.
I will remind you of 2022
when I could not
pay you to put money into
the market. Hold up. Let me finish.
Let me finish.
Tina, come on.
Tina, but let me finish.
It was a huge mistake. Tina, but let me finish. It was a huge mistake.
What I'm telling you is –
Can I finish?
My point was I was banging the table for anyone who would listen to not get out of the market because I was saying all 2022, the macro outlook is actually incredibly bullish.
We had so much jobs gains.
We had CPI was starting to cool.
Tina, let me just finish.
And unemployment was going down, not up.
What I'm trying to tell you is the guys who really knocked the cover off the ball in 2023 and 2024 were not focusing on the macro.
They were focusing on individual names.
Yes, but that's missing.
Tina, that's missing the point.
You can build your watch list.
It's not missing the point.
You can build your watch list.
It's not missing the point.
Tina, just let me finish, please.
It's not missing the point.
Tina, please let me just finish.
What I'm trying to tell you is, yeah, but I'm telling you, it is a waste of time to focus on that shit.
It doesn't mean you shouldn't know something about it.
But these these conversations that people have ad nauseum doesn't educate anybody.
It's a complete fucking waste of time.
If you spent 90 percent of that time trying to find real companies doing real things, your time would be better spent.
No, there's two different conversations.
If you're trying to find – if you're trying to build out an incredible watch list of companies that you can't wait to own for a long time, that's a different conversation of, well, how come everything is going down?
How come all I see is red across my screen?
I thought I was holding excellent companies.
I thought I was holding a real technology place for the future.
I don't think you understand what I'm saying.
I do understand what you're saying.
No, you really don't.
You really don't.
It doesn't mean you take your whole fucking position in one shot.
It doesn't mean you take your whole fucking position in one shot.
Maybe you buy it.
Maybe you buy it 10 times in the course of that market.
What I'm telling you is trying to predict that shit is impossible.
I'm not trying to do it.
I'm not trying to.
Hey, guys.
No one can do that.
I'm missing the whole thing.
I see the conversation now shifted between a debate versus Tina and Matt.
It's now five.
I'm going to go ahead and wrap up.
But before I do, Sully, just go ahead and give your most bearish take before I wrap up.
Bobby, I have one question.
Bobby?
Bobby?
Look, Tina, I have—
I just want to know.
Wait, wait.
I just want to know one thing.
Are you happy? Did I make you happy?
Did I bring enough heat for you?
Oh, dude. Tina, if
your blood pressure was
hooked onto the stock market,
the S&P 500 will be at
10,000 within three weeks, man.
Literally, bro.
And you laughed so hard that the mic
was cracking.
That's why I bring you up, you know, know because you're entertaining and i think that's what makes streams like
actually worth listening to is entertainment because if it was just you know just like
some of these other spaces which is just interviews or just like gossiping yeah like
there wouldn't really be many people tuning into these shows.
So that's why I bring you up.
You know, you've been a staple from time to time when the market is choppy over the last few years.
So, yeah, man.
I have no issue with it.
But I have the answers to questions that people don't even know how to ask.
that people don't even know how to ask.
So, Sully, go ahead and give your most bearish take
as humanly possible before I wrap up the stream,
if you'd like.
Man, I'm not going to do that, Wabi,
but I was getting a kick out of the conversation
because there's that saying that CT and Fintwit
are just a bunch of people debating different time frames
and saying that everyone else is wrong.
So I don't even know if I can follow that. I don't even know if I can follow that, man. I'll
just give some brief things and then I'll let you wrap it up. I'm bullish on financials.
I think the divergence between tech, crypto, and some of these clearly more fundamentally sound equities like healthcare and financials,
that divergence probably continues. What I am kind of curious about is if the divergence continues
into like February OPEX, right? Do we see tech actively selling off while financials blow off?
Because that is what I think the latter is about to do. I think financials, specifically things like Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, they look like
they're going to put in some hefty green candles in the next few weeks.
So that's kind of where my focus is at right now, is extracting from that.
But I would just say, lastly, the market is at levels that from a valuation standpoint historically are very extreme.
So I do think going too gung-ho into the passive investing, like at this point, you have to be a little bit careful with that, right?
But yeah, I don't really know how I can follow that.
So that's all i
got for you guys have a great weekend yeah i'm gonna go ahead and wrap up guys if you're uh
i mean i'm pretty sure pretty sure you guys know what i'm about to say but if you guys enjoyed the
show over the last hour and a half go ahead and give everyone here a follow follow because bitcoin
account my name is wabi i host market talk throughout the week monday through friday 3 30
p.m esc
with a set panel of speakers we talk all things markets whether it's uh crypto whether it's
stratfi we discuss it all price action all that good stuff feel free to check out some of the
links in our bios we want to join our community check out our trading terminal and all that good
stuff spaces are recorded as always and we also have a YouTube show called Market Check.
That's our TA channel.
TA show, excuse me.
We go through charts, all that stuff, live interaction with our audience.
So, guys, have a safe weekend.
Have a good rest of your Friday or Saturday.
And we'll catch you on the next one.
Take care, guys.
Bye-bye. Oh, and also, thank you to all the speakers who came up tina louie evan uh sully matt um
hagrid prometheus all of you guys thank you all so much joe thank you so much for coming on as
well we had a stacked panel today man what a great show. Okay, guys. Peace.
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