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Market Talk- HUGE CRASH?! IS IT OVER?! STOCKS MAKE NEW LOWS?BTC NEXT?!
Recorded: March 26, 2026 Duration: 3:04:33Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. music Thank you. I'm going to go. Walk along the raisin case. Don't look down, just keep your head up.
You're finished.
Open up the limit.
Pass the coin of no return. Reach the top of the deal. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Welcome to the Limits.
Take it baby one step more.
I'll keep still playing so we better win. Let's get to the family. Music Thank you. Welcome to the limits.
Stand by normal raisins.
Don't look down, just keep your head.
You're the feeling.
Welcome to the limits.
I'm pushing to the world. Welcome to the world.
Yo, what's going on, guys? hope you're all doing okay what an incredible day in the markets man
all of this volatility brother uh s&p in the queues continuing to make new year-to-date lows
and um we'll see if crypto does the same thing, man. Something that I've been entertaining here on these spaces, the price action that we're seeing is very similar to what we were seeing in the second half of 2023, where you saw crypto bottom out shortly before the stock market went on a 12% decline.
You have the SPX down about, I believe, 6% or so.
Yeah, close to 6% year to date.
NASDAQ close to 7%.
And we're not really seeing BTC and the rest of the crypto market make new lows, at least for now.
Here on the show, we have been entertaining a possibility of us hitting 55, 58K,
but that's not really an extreme decline from previous lows.
And we did see similar price action last year, at least for BTC itself.
BTC hit, I believe, 75, 76, something like that in March.
And then eventually we hit, I think, 73-ish or just below 73, depending on what exchange you're looking at the next month.
But altcoins did continue to bleed profusely over the next month after that.
And right now, we're seeing Seoul trading at about $85, the lowest $67. I think
you would have to see the SPX trade below $5,000 for the market to really get absolutely hammered,
at least if you're comparing it to previous bear markets. But if you do start to see the SPX trade at like 5,600 or something like that,
then definitely if the SPX gaps down by 800, 1,000 points,
then we probably have a retest of the lows.
But for the most part, at least for majors, the carnage is probably,
at least for me, I think it's almost done, at least in the immediate short term.
But I could be wrong, and I'm willing to go through some drawdown.
Most of my crypto exposure is in hype.
And that entry, I don't think it's going to get hit,
but there are some polymarket odds that
it will trade into the teens i think the odds are like almost 45 percent i think it's just over 40
percent actually that it will be trading in the teens so um we'll see man if i eat shit then
let's so be it man then so be it um we're actually gapping up a little bit on the lower timeframes here on BTC and ETH and some other majors as well.
But, yeah, the equity market, they are taking somewhat of a hit today.
But, oddly enough, Solaris is maintaining some insane strength.
I remember when Matt was on the show last week, I was talking about a rotation from a good chunk of my Sandisk position into Solaris.
For a starter position, I've been on Solaris, and Sandisk has been bleeding down.
Solaris has been maintaining um but uh i do think oil at this point probably makes like a marginal all-time high i discussed this during
yesterday's show we probably see a marginal all-time high to like i think probably 110 or something like that um because on hyperliquid um cl which
is the crude oil ticker traded at like 120 right around 120 but on actual trad fi brokerages um it
has not gone over 100 which is quite funny so that's what I mean by marginal all-time high.
It probably has somewhat of a retest of that high that it hit on Hyperliquid, something like that.
But, I mean, the meat of the move has already happened, in my opinion.
70 bucks or just below 70 bucks, all the way close to 100.
There's no point in trying to catch a 15% move on an asset that really only
moves on geopolitical headlines. And talking about that, I'm never going to make this a
geopolitical space. Quite frankly, it makes me bored. It makes me want to rip my hair out.
It's usually people who can't trade, don't know anything about markets, and they just dollar cost average indexes and BTC that go on these spaces and go on tangents about geopolitical stuff and what the next mining block for Bitcoin says.
And I don't find that quality content, to be honest, at all.
I think in these spaces, especially during these times, you should be finding signal.
You should be spending your time trying to find some alpha when it's not on easy mode, when it is a stock pickers market, when it is a rotation based market.
That's at least that's that's how I would be spending my time.
Not talking about geopolitical issues that I have no idea what's going to happen,
and it's really contingent on what one person tweets in regards to a ceasefire or a meme that they blew up a country
and they used Call of Duty montages, which honestly seems like the movie idiocracy.
And if that's the game that's going to be played, then oh well.
But anyways, Solaris is doing pretty good against Sandisk.
I put it on my personal profile how I was one of the only ones on CT that we're talking about sandisk and I think
that next sandisk type trade is probably going to be in energy and yeah I understand I'm I bought a
breakout with uh with Solaris but it's not like crypto where when you go on chain and you buy some random shitter on Solana or on bass, and then you have like all these kids with broccoli haircuts and massive vocal fry who don't know how to speak, who have no bass in their voice, dump on you with all their stupid friends and it's down 80 90 percent after their initial
thesis was that it's the future of tech and it's going to be a nine-figure runner it's not the
environment that we're in right now um in crypto over the last few weeks it's just been hype and
recently tau and everything else has just been absolute trash.
Most of the volatility to play for upside has been in the equity markets.
It's been in TradFi.
And at some point, I do believe that crypto will have that driving force of liquidity.
But for now, I just think it's probably going to take a while. Maybe towards the summertime
would be my guess when Warsh gets in. I think there's going to be a wave of breadth
during that time period. But again, I'm just one guy. All these spaces are recorded,
and I'm just one guy trying to navigate the markets, trying to
seek out and give you guys some plays and talk some shop with people
and see what they're seeing in the market and what they're playing.
Because even if there is uncertainty in the market, there is always a bull market somewhere else.
In 2022, crypto was in a massive downtrend. But during that downtrend, for the first half at least, you could have played in the Cosmos ecosystem.
You could have longed Luna in Q1.
Also, NFTs kept on trending until late April. You could have also played Stepin, which went up like 20x or something like that.
You could have longed Veneer as well. And you You could have longed the near as well.
And you also could have longed oil in Q2 as well.
And during the summer of 2022, you could have longed tech.
There was a huge gamma squeeze in tech in the summer of 22.
And honestly, I forgot what happened from August all the way to October as far as any long positions.
The majority of the market just died at that point from October, November.
It was just pure limit down, chop.
But then after that, I mean, it was essentially up only for over three years. So there's always something along when uncertainty occurs,
even though the breadth isn't as strong.
So the Cues, SPX, have finally broken down after a five-month range.
And during that time period, you could have played Sandus.
You could have played Micron.
You could have played Nibius.
Many other names as well hymns is another um solaris is another could have played oil as well uh consumer staples
consumer staples earlier in the year so there have been stuff there has been things to play
um in the equity markets and as far as, it's mainly just been hype and tau and some things on chain.
But you never really know how long this window of breadth is going to play out whenever the market just relaxes and stays within a range.
the market just relaxes and stays within a range.
But typically, whenever you do see the SPX and the Qs break down,
it usually leads to a 10% to 15% gap down.
And if we're going to repeat the same thing that we did last year,
then all right, that's fine with me.
all right that's fine with me um i'll place my bets if hype gets all the way down to 25
I'll place my bets.
um i'll probably double down um but i would like to get hype in the teens i would even though i
don't really think it's going to if it gets in the teens by all means i'll probably i'll probably uh
get some and i'm willing to go through some volatility.
That's what this market has been this entire year.
That's what I like about it, man.
That is what I like about this market.
Volatility has been king.
If vol was suppressed in the stock market, I would not be having a good time at all whatsoever. We'll see what this oil breakout,
if it's going to break out. We'll see if it actually retests those highs that it hit on
hyperliquid. If oil does gap up again tomorrow, then you're probably going to see people go on hyperliquid and long oil so
that's probably going to be um a trade uh but again i still think the meat of the move on oil
has already been done i mean this thing started from like sub 60 um we called it here on the show
right before that breakout out of 70 bucks. You're talking about a 50 plus percent move already.
And if oil gaps up to like 150, 140, then I think we have a lot more problems than just where the market is trading at, to be honest, at that current time.
But anyways, I want to welcome you all back to Market Talk brought to you by BB.
My name's Wabi.
I hope you're all having a great Thursday.
It is great to be back.
Thankfully, I only have to take some of these antibiotics for like three more days.
And I'll finally be able to be back to normal um i can i can actually feel my jaw now
which is great um and my face isn't as deformed um so that's good but if you guys missed yesterday's
show do yourself a favor and uh listen to these recordings if you're not able to listen to the entirety of the show
when the market gets like this when it gets really volatile to either the upside or the downside
these shows become very very very entertaining and i just want to thank you all so much for those
of you that are tuning in right now or listening to the recording, I hope you're enjoying the show and you've enjoyed the shows that I've done since the year has started.
It's been fantastic.
Many, many good plays.
Many entertaining moments.
And I just want to show you guys that token of appreciation.
Token of appreciation.
But before we officially get started, guys, if you all can go ahead and show some love to the space, best way to do that, guys, is by clicking the spaces tab.
Once you guys do that, right above our profile pictures, right up on the nest, you'll see a link that says x.com slash i slash spaces if you guys can go ahead hit the
like button hit the retweet button guys or repost button um as it's called now it does a number of
things guys helps bring the show more out into the algorithm brings more brand awareness helps
get more people on the show tuning in puts the asses on the seats.
And as I always say, who knows, maybe some of the people
that you guys follow closely here on X will be in the audience
and I'll send them an invite to speak.
But speaking about that, because it's such a volatile day,
because there's so much action going on in the markets today,
if you guys want to come up and chat,
if anyone here in the audience that's listening right now, If you guys want to come up and chat, if anyone here in the audience that's listening right
now, if you guys want to come up, ask any questions, or more specifically, if you guys
want to come up and talk shop, you can also click the request button at the bottom left
and I'll bring you right on up.
Usually during these periods in the market, I always love to hear more perspectives than just my own.
I definitely don't want to be in an echo chamber.
So if you guys are tuning in right now and want to talk shop or ask any questions, feel free to do that.
The mic is at the bottom left, the request button, and I'll bring you right on up.
So that's kind of my opener here.
If we do see a weekly close on BTC below 64,
then we probably have a sweep of the lows.
But again, at least for now,
at least for now, in my opinion,
it does look like we're replicating
some similar price action to what we saw during the
second half of 2023. If you guys remember, I'm sure some of the OG Market Talk listeners will
remember in August of 23, we had that gap down from 31K on BTC to 24. ETH had that gap down from like 1,700 down to 1,300, something like that.
And SOUL had a huge gap down from like 30 bucks down to like 12 or 13 or 14.
12 to 14, that's what I remember, depending on what exchange you're looking at, of course.
what exchange you're looking at, of course. And equities grinded down over the next two and a
half months where crypto was just in a range. So we'll see if that same thing happens, right?
And I remember very, very clearly, as SPX was gapping down to 4,000 in October of 23,
there were many people that said, oh boy, you boy, just wait for ETH to hit three digits.
ETH is going to hit three digits.
So it's going to go back to sub 10.
And there were many debates here on these spaces from some interesting characters.
When the volatility in the equity markets, the downside just was not seen in crypto.
Vol was very suppressed during that time.
So we'll see.
We'll see how crypto fares up.
But with that being said, we've got some people up on the stage.
I will be having some other speakers join us during the second half of the show.
But it's great to be back with you guys.
It really is.
It's really great to see all of your profiles here on these spaces.
It's really cool documenting this process, right?
But anyways, I'm going gonna go ahead and get started but once again if any of you guys
want to come up and yap ask any questions give your thoughts just hit that request button to
the bottom left i usually save this for fridays but again because there's a lot of volatility in
the market going towards the uh end of the week um i'd love to get your guys' thoughts on the market.
So I see Sullivan.
Sullivan, I'm going to send you an invite to speak.
O'Hare, I'm going to send you an invite to speak as well.
Mitch, I'm going to send you an invite to speak as well.
I think Feather, you've come up before so i'm going to send
you an invite to speak i see a naruto uzumaki profile picture as well time that's cool that's
really nice man but anyways david what's up man how's uh how's your day going today's going
terrific i got a commitment for the fund.
The money will be coming over this week
so we can take advantage of things.
I do have a commitment to do my own spaces,
so I'm going to stay here.
I wanted to talk to you.
I'm glad you survived your ordeal
with the murderous chicken
who was trying to whack you.
Yes, man.
He was the mafia, man.
He tried to whack me.
The mafia chicken.
He tried to whack me.
It's an exploding chicken.
Yes, yes.
But that's my fault.
I went to one of America's's worst um places on earth which was
wing stop oh um and i used to be a wing stop enthusiast man but then they betrayed me and
is it chumps or is it slurry is a chicken slurry yeah yeah it was it was it was horrible it was
like it was a bad batch so like out of out of righteous anger, I just made my own chicken clats and drums.
Did you make a report?
No, no, no.
Don't you want them to cover it?
No, no, no.
You can get lifetime wins just like the Chipotle at the Boston College crew.
Man, Chipotle was actually my first job.
David, did you know that I used to work at an orange juice factory,
but then I got canned because I couldn't concentrate?
No, I heard that one before.
I answered your workout regime.
Oh, so you already know the bit, man.
You already know.
It's just there's a lot going on today, so I figured we'd jump right into it.
Yeah, go ahead, man.
So I put up in the nest a couple of important things to me.
The yield curve is, the term premium is evaporating
because real rates of the short run are exploding, not inflation.
Real rates, if it was inflation,
gold would be going up, gold volatility would be going up, but we don't have that.
We have a complementary series of volatilities. You could add up gold, silver, and oil,
and that number isn't really moving. Whenever oil wants to go up, it takes the volatility energy from gold, silver, a little from
crypto, and then it causes the prices to come down. So we're having rising real rates. That's
explaining the 50% draw in silver, the 25% draw in gold, a little less in copper.
But these flattening curves are telling you a story,
and you can see it in Berkshire Hathaway,
which is near a 50-week low.
And when you get a flatter curve,
a bank makes less money from a less steep curve,
and that puts added selling pressure on the S&P,
which puts added selling pressure on the NASDAQ,
which puts added selling pressure on semis,
which puts added selling pressure on the memory companies,
the big four.
SanDisk is down 22% this week.
We spoke about it yesterday.
They're done, in my opinion.
We have Microsoft, a real company, cannot find a bid.
And they, at one point, said, oh, software is so cheap to hardware,
let me buy software and knock down hardware.
And hardware held up.
So they reversed it. They started taking software down. And then finally, they broke down hardware. And so now you'll get guys on the street,
technicians say it's broken. NVIDIA, 172. So 30 in 20 months. You take this level, it gets back towards 150,
and it's unchanged practically since the June 18, 2024 peak
when we just started getting rid of quantitative tightening.
We lost $35 billion monthly, $420 billion of quantitative tightening.
It's before our cuts.
It's before that three-week sell-off.
But a flatter curve is telling you more people want to lend than borrow that's not inflation
saying that real rates are too high we're deleveraging the first bomb fell i told my
subscribers degross this is not just going to go away. We're three days away, they say, from planes
shutting down on the ground all over Asia and the poorer countries. They're going to be doing
remote school. We're going to knock off 1% of GDP from the globe, maybe two this year.
They could end hostilities tomorrow. It doesn't change a lot.
They could end hostilities tomorrow.
It doesn't change a lot.
It takes three weeks.
You can't get the LNG out.
You've got to cool down the tanks.
So there's real de-leveraging.
There's real liquidation going on,
and it's causing leveraging up
because the equity is evaporating.
What did Robinhood's guys say two days ago or yesterday? People lost so much money in crypto,
the account balances are down. What do you think they're down now? With Facebook down 8% today,
after being down the other day. Microsoft is on the verge of a 52-week low list.
And as I've said for months,
watch out for April 21 to May 11.
April 21 of last year, I did a podcast.
It's on Apple and Spotify.
My sixth episode, calling for a prompt,
immediate decline in volatility
and a surge in the FAANG names.
That was policy-driven.
Trump with his 145% tariffs, nobody thought that was serious.
But the market had to react while it was active.
It would have ended our car industry.
China wouldn't have sold the same rare earths.
We had 32% tariffs against them.
They're at 37% now, five up.
It's better than zero.
The economy in the world couldn't handle it,
so you have to sell all your stock and buy puts and buy volatility.
Then Trump was tactical.
And so you got the big rally.
But those prices, which were never real,
they were based on a world that only existed for
three days, four days. We're going to have that data set mask all the 52-week lows. Every company
has a 52-week low, or let's say every company with a 50-week low doesn't show as a 52-week low
because you have that Liberation Day spike down in price.
Obviously, you have Adobe
and just oceans of software companies
that are through the five-year loan.
But an enormous amount of companies
in two weeks, three weeks or less
will be on their 52-week lows
if they don't go anywhere
because they cycle out
the data set of the policy. So we've got the longer term curves, and I'll just highlight
the 10-year, 5-year. The 10-year minus the 5-year, which is down to 323,
down 3.2 basis points,
that is effectively something called the 5-year, 5-year forward.
It's a 5-year which starts its clock in 5 years.
As though if you look at that close today,
let's see how far back you have to go.
Let me just bring that over.
And there's a very important reason for it.
Okay, so we're back at, we're at Liberation Day levels. We have completely gone
straight up, trapped everyone, full trapped on those steepeners, and it's taken out,
and we're about to enter a death cross. We have 1.1 basis points in the five-year, 10-year.
This is telling you longer-term inflation expectations are coming down,
and this is going to go lower.
It's going to go into a death cross,
and I think it's going to go into inversion.
And so they need to cut now.
They didn't need to cut before.
They need to cut now, and the longer they don't,
you can see it in the dollar.
The dollar is melting up.
Now, you've got all these tech companies taking on a lot of debt,
and that is diverting away a lot of their free cash flow.
They're doing the CapEx.
They're doing the free cash flow.
But the debt means Google has to spend $1.25 billion on interest rates,
on interest expense.
What happens when you drive up the dollar
and they're 50% exports?
They're going to have problems.
They're going to lose money.
So when I posted on my pinned tweet
on July 17, 2024,
that's the 18, 19, 20 months ago,
that you're going to have a protracted,
which is a slow migration out of tech.
The NASDAQ today
has appreciated less than the S&P since 2024.
It has underperformed.
And when you have dynamics like that
and the volatility markets are all distorted
you're going to get an explosion
everybody is short the calls
everybody is short the puts
you're going to get a kurtosis
you're going to get a rise of kurtosis
you're going to get a super excitation
and you're not going to be able to just exit
we'll get a limit down day one day.
And when the NASDAQ can't trade because it's a limit down,
what do you think is going to happen to crypto that people can trade?
So we're losing liquidity around the world.
Real rates are rising, as evidenced by the fact that you can't see gold,
silver rising the same day as oil.
Go look.
It's entangled, one up, one down.
They're conjugates.
They're obverse.
What can change this?
Tell me, what could change what's going on?
You've got emerging market currencies,
India, Indonesia, Korea, Bangladesh.
They're melting down, all-time lows. You've got Egypt and Pakistan, all-time lows. Turkey, all-time lows. Argentina. These countries have debt
obligations denominated in dollars they will not be able to service.
You're talking about the private credit right now?
How about emerging market?
And then you've got Druckenmiller.
And I'll let it go after this,
but Druckenmiller on video after 2,000 years later said,
how much did he lose in the dot-com back nine
after the March 24th, 2000 peak?
He said he lost $3 billion.
They said, what did you learn?
He says, nothing.
I knew not to do it.
So he's trafficking in something that could fall 83%,
83.6% tech that had just run up
to a three-standard deviation rise.
And he can't resist the temptation,
the impulse to get involved.
So what does he do this time?
Does he go to the biggest cap stocks in the world
when he was buying Microsoft or whatever he was buying?
He's going to the worst garbage pile that ever lived.
He's going to emerging markets.
And they're wonderful people, but the value of their equities,
small cap, illiquid, thin.
And he said on a recording, everyone's seen it practically,
on February 24th, 25th, the Friday was the 26th,
the close of the month for trading.
And he says he's short the bond.
He's short the bond, he's short the
dollar, he's
logged Korea
Brazil
and Japan.
What do you think is going to happen to Korea tomorrow?
With
Sandisk down 11
or whatever?
How about their currency?
Their currency is at a new multi-year low,
10-year low.
So we're losing global liquidity,
and this was by design.
I've said this from the beginning of the presidency.
On November 7th,
Trump's only hope of neutralizing the massive excessive
spending of Biden in the 20 months before the next election really sets in people's
minds because you have a July 20th start and then you're at January.
That's 18 months.
And then you get to March.
It's 20 months.
You got the election in November.
He could not get rid of inflation without causing a lot of damage,
being a bull in a China shop, making things unpredictable.
And he wasn't getting people to slow down on tech.
So he said, let me blow up the world.
Is he using this exact analytics?
Of course not.
But what's going on is the curves are flattening.
It is a barometer.
It is engaged.
It is telling you the demand to borrow is low.
The demand to lend is high.
Now, obviously, someone in a junk bond company,
someone going to a private credit with no coverage,
they want to borrow all they can with a credit card borrower.
But serious borrowers have no appetite to borrow anymore.
There's too much uncertainty.
certainty. And as the yield curve flattens, the banks make less and they can lend less.
And as the yield curve flattens, the banks make less,
and they can lend less.
So I've been begging people to get their ostrich head out of the sand, take their head out of the
turtle's nest in a shell, and look at what's happening, accelerating price decay,
and now the entire tech sector is participating.
Even the final legacy is called Texas.
People sell Microsoft.
You don't have the institutions giving permission
for their traders to lower their
com tech discretionary, and financials.
So you have to stay in there.
So that's why NVIDIA is underperforming the SMH
at the greatest amount since May of 2024,
from before it even peaked.
People just want to get out of it.
They want to short, they got to hide the money.
But once you get the institutions announcing,
not publicly, but to their advisors,
yeah, we'll take a couple percent off. We'll take 1% off of each financials, calm, discretionary,
move it into Staples Healthcare Utilities, which is the very likely case. Somebody could go to
mortgages. That's when you have more decline.
Right now, it's hedge funds leaning on it short,
anticipating that they could hold their short
until the institution starts selling,
and then the only thing that's left is individual investors
and people on Twitter looking for an entry point for a DCA.
Most all of the people who say that
don't have any bags left to invest.
It's just story time.
We're losing volatility structurally because it's too much money, suppressing it.
Bitcoin, you breathe on it and it falls.
Michael Saylor announced the biggest buy in his Bitcoin history,
and now he's $5,000 an ounce underwater, $6,000 an ounce
underwater. I was listening to his interview today about STRC. Even Brian Sullivan, who's
kind of an energy guy, was asking questions which were very misleading.
which were very misleading.
He says, we're trying to keep the price around 100.
He didn't articulate the reason why they raised the dividend
from 9 to 11 and a half
is because they had to or the price would fall.
They're telling you that they expect it to be worth 88 cents,
88 and a half,
plus two,
92 and a half percent,
92 and a half cents next year.
Because they're paying you 11 and a half,
and he says, well, you know,
Bitcoin goes up 2% a year we got you covered
for 50 years
or forever
he said if it doesn't go up
we got you covered
for 50 years
he doesn't say what if it goes down
and so
they got too much debt
they got too much equity they got too much preferred equity and they got too much debt, they got too much equity, they got too much preferred equity,
and they got a huge, enormous problem.
I just want people to look at two sides of a trade.
I just want people to see everybody is steeped the curve.
I said it from the beginning of your spaces, from my contacts, directly or indirectly,
not inside information,
generally widely understood,
everybody has steeped the curve.
Drucker-Miller bragged about it.
Yet the curve is flattening.
Why is that?
Because in my work, the curve is going to invert,
not just flatten, it's going to invert.
And everybody steeped the curve.
Powell took us from minus 109 in change
in 23
with his policy accommodations,
easing, blah, blah, blah,
get QD,
mortgage roll, all that stuff
from minus 109
to plus 73.2.
And now where are we?
It's up in the nest.
43.2.
Okay.
The low was a little lower,
and the intraday low was even lower at the end of July.
Folks, all of these curves, they all look like they're in the 200-day moving average,
below the 200-day moving average.
What's that telling you? Nothing good happens below the 200-day?
You could look at a price, or you could look at a relative price.
And this is telling you long-term inflation expectations
are improving by
the day.
Because we're always going to have
the crazy out of Iran. It's never
going to change. Even after the
Ayatollahs are all killed and maybe
God willing someday the regular people
there will be so much terrorism
and blowing up of energy infrastructure
from a Shia to a Sunni.
They hate each other.
We'll have the energy infrastructure in the United States and Venezuela.
That's why Venezuela, when first they did their energy law, Chevron, not advice, is just their Guyana and they're Venezuela.
We heard rumors two days ago, Keystone XL,
they're thinking of bringing it back
because Trump actually wants those 10,000 welding jobs.
Folks, the economy isn't getting that much worse.
And then we're going to get stronger soon
with rates coming lower, which they will.
And the reason you can say that is because the long-term,
the Druckenmills who short the bond, steepen the curve, weaken the dollar,
created the liquidity pump, that's over.
Folks, this all started in 1985, in February when the dollar peaks at $164.73.
And then King Fahd's in America, and he and the Reagan administration are talking about the Soviet Union.
And then September 13, 1985, they announced that they're going to go from price to market share in oil.
Oil fell 70%.
The Plaza Accords, September 22nd at the Plaza Hotel, Trump owned it, I think for a while.
They said, we got to get the dollar weaker.
The dollar goes down to 71, 23 years later.
It's been rising for 18 years and people want to bet against it.
You've got the lowest volatility, which means it can move in any direction faster.
And at the same time, you've got 14 years of negative positioning,
the worst negative positioning on the dollar in 14 years.
dollar in 14 years.
That's a recipe for higher dollar.
That's a recipe for less free cash
flow in big tech that's
already suffering under
the debt burden.
try to look out of both sides
of your head like a good bullfrog.
Try to notice what's going on.
And when you have Microsoft, one of the greatest companies of all time,
some people don't like them, some people think they're corrupt.
They got to four and a half, probably trillion.
When they don't have a bid, why would you buy something of garbageness?
When you start blending
in NVIDIA and Microsoft,
mama no good.
I looked at, it was January
6th. January 6th
or January 9th post, I think it's in the
highlights. Mama no good.
Microsoft, Apple,
Meta, and Amazon.
Folks, real rates are
rising and these companies are institutional industrial
scale consumers of negative cost of capital liquidity but they do not function when money
costs money when there's competition from regular people and that's what we're going to have
we're going to have the most amazing Main Street,
whether Trump loses the midterms or not.
We're going to have the most amazing time
because we're going to be taking 5 million more barrels
of market share from the Middle East
and bring them over to the West.
It's going to be very exciting,
but folks, you can't be unidirectional.
You can't consider yourself serious.
You know, you have industrials
that everyone is hiding in
as they get out of tech,
and now it's down 232 today.
You know,
I think you just have to be more observational and less dogmatic.
Anyway, I'm going to stay around for about 10 minutes.
If anyone wanted to speak on this show,
if anyone wanted to ask me anything, I'd be happy to say it.
But I've been preaching the idea that the vector of escape from locality
is going to be the bear,
because it took policy support
of massive rate cuts
of a trillion and a half of net QE
going from
one trillion QE to half a trillion QE
to keep the market stable.
They will run out.
please, don't shoot
yourself in the foot.
Okay, thank you, Robbie.
Oh, here, feel free to chime in, bro.
This is kind of your lingo, bro.
This is what I've heard of you over the last couple of years, man.
This is right up your bone.
I like the new profile picture as well here
bro i think david uh covered all the bases and then some
he's he's got it all covered man you can close the space now
i i figured i i figured i'd bring you guys here because when the volatility gets the downside
I figured I'd bring you guys here because when the volatility gets the downside, you guys are like some of the main characters, you know.
And that's what I like, man.
I like hearing a variety of thoughts.
You're kind of breaking up, bro.
You must be walking around.
No, no.
I think it's just spaces, man.
That's better.
Spaces.
You know, microstrategy peaked on November 21, 2024.
That was the start of the decay, the aortic dissection of the market.
That, you know, 10 and a half months later, pulled down Bitcoin.
And then Microsoft.
I mean, these are threads, and the whole thing is coming unwound.
And once you get a flatter curve,
you're going to have deflation expectations.
You're going to have global recession expectations.
I think we've got to be careful
because correlation does not mean causation.
And I think there are a lot of things going on here
the last few months, weeks, months, days
that it's quite interesting, actually.
Today was interesting because you had equities drop across the board,
growth value, pretty much everything across the board,
with the exception of energy.
Staples, utilities, and healthcare did much, much better.
Yeah.
You had – so I'll give you an example.
Indices are all red.
Everything's red all the way across the board.
In that sector, I'm talking broad-based indices.
So there's some sector indices that did quite well today, energy being one.
Utilities
were up.
David, I didn't interrupt.
No, no, but you're saying things that are inconsistent with
facts, and I thought we were going to have a
real discussion. We're not having a discussion.
We spoke for like 30 minutes. Okay, okay.
I thought when you commented on me,
and then you said correlation
and causation are different, I thought you wanted to have a factual discussion.
I'll put myself on mute.
If you want to keep going on your diatribe, you can.
I mean, I'll let you.
I didn't interrupt you.
No, but you just said things that are inaccurate right opposite me.
Utilities were up, staples in healthcare.
The three-pack was down 10 basis points.
Just for like five minutes.
Do you know how to do that?
Do you know how to zip your mouth shut for a few minutes
and just listen like I did?
You know what?
I don't need to be on a clown show with you
who are so disrespectful.
You really don't need to be here.
Go ahead.
Take off.
Anyway, what I was saying before I was rudely interrupted
by this guy who thinks he's got it all figured out,
there are certain sectors that were green today, energy being one of them. So I don't know what
the fuck he was talking about. He has no idea what he's talking about 99% of the time. Okay.
He just makes up a bunch of shit and everybody sits in here with their eyes glazed over listening
to it. It's fucking, it's annoying. So as I was saying, energy was up. There were a few sectors
that did quite well today. Out of the 26 stocks in our strategy, we had about seven, eight, eight in the green today, primarily in staples and
energy. And, you know, so it was an interesting day because the dollar rallied on the back of
higher yields. So if you look at the bond market, the yields moved up. In fact, if you look at the 10-year, for instance, it was up over 2% today,
which is a very unusual day.
So you had bond market, you had yields up, you had the dollar stronger,
you had precious metals dropping on the back of that,
which hurt us a little bit.
We have metals exposure through mining stocks.
But by and large, it was an okay day.
It wasn't like everybody screamed bloody murder.
This guy, David's always pounding the table
like it's the fucking, the world's ending.
He's been wrong like 99% of the time
pretty much for the last year
that I've been listening to him.
So, but anyway, that's kind of my,
you know, that's my take.
I think it was a really interesting day
because not everything was down.
In fact, if you look at like tech even, you had, you know, you had a little bit of reprieve
here for SaaS companies.
So a lot of the SaaS stocks were up today, some were up pretty nicely, you know, but
obviously, you know, but broadly speaking, the tech sector, including trips, were down.
broadly speaking, the tech sector, including trips, were down.
So there's been this kind of tug and, you know, this tug of war, you know, among sectors over the
last few months. So I think largely this is due to a couple of things. One, the, you know, kind of
the situation around the war in Iran and the administration's lack of clarity on kind of
which direction they're going to go. One day it's over, next day it's on, over, on. I mean,
it just depends. Tomorrow we're back to war, today we're done. They want to negotiate,
they don't want to negotiate. I mean, it's really hard to know exactly what's going on,
you know, primarily because he's been lying for, you know, since he was born. So it's really hard
to know exactly what's happening. And of course, nobody in the administration
is going to challenge him on anything.
So, you know, it's, it's, you can kind of come up
with your own guesstimate as to what is going to happen
tomorrow or next week.
We're four weeks into this, we're a month into it.
So, you know, it's anybody's guess, you know,
how much further this has to go
or how much more painful it'll get. But,
you know, again, I think if you just look at those, you know, several things that I just
mentioned, you know, the rising price of oil today on the back of mixed news out of Iran,
and, you know, the Strait of Hormuz, you know, one day it's locked down, next day it's open,
locked, open, locked, open. I mean, you just, you know, you just can't make sense of it.
It's really hard to know exactly what's happening.
Mike, what's going on, man? I saw you with the classic emojis, man. That's how I know.
I got interrupted there by a phone call. But anyway, I don't know where I stopped. But anyway,
so that's kind of what my take is.
You know, it's like I said, it's anybody's guess.
I would say for the average investor, just kind of sit tight.
Don't fucking panic.
Everybody wants to be a panic.
And they panic buy and they panic sell.
It's just, it's fucking ridiculous.
Man, I haven't heard of that term.
Well, I mean, you get guys like David in here.
You know, you get guys like David in here and he just goes on for 40 fucking minutes, you know, chasing his own fucking tail.
And absolutely, when he's done talking, you just you wonder, like, what exactly was the point of it?
And there was no point. And so, you know, you got to be really careful, you know, because there are a lot of people on here that are just completely blowing smoke up everybody's ass, you know, and, you know, I have the privilege actually
to be able to suss it out more than the average person, because I've been doing this a very long
time. I've listened to a lot of these guys over the years, you know, I've been at many, many,
you know, dozens, hundreds of luncheons and sales pitches and guys selling all kinds of crazy shit.
and guys selling all kinds of crazy shit.
And, you know, so you kind of have, you know,
a place of reference where most people in these spaces on X
and, you know, on YouTube, for example,
if you watch a lot of YouTube videos of these guys,
you know, the end is near, the end is near.
You know, you just don't know,
you don't have a point of reference
and it's not your fault, you know, the listeners in here,
it's not your fault, it's just the way it is.
You get a guy like him in there
and it sounds really interesting.
It's like fear sells, right?
I mean, two things sell really well, right?
Fear sells really well.
And so does like greed, right?
AI or any kind of massive moves in something.
You don't wanna miss it. You wanna be part of it. And conversely, on kind of massive, you know, moves in something. You don't want to miss it. You want
to be part of it. And conversely, on the other side, the flip side of that is when things are
crashing, you know, that sells also. So, you know, I tend to be in the middle on a lot of these
things. You know, the last thing you want to do is panic on either side, you know, just kind of
keep calm, stay collected, really, you know, make rational decisions as much as you can.
Keep calm, stay collected, really make rational decisions as much as you can.
And again, if you're a retail investor, trader, whether it's crypto, whether it's stocks,
whatever, less is more.
I've said it a million times, do less.
Just step away from the keyboard, step away from your phone, really think about what you're
doing and don't panic.
Panicking isn't going to do you any good.
The casino will be open tomorrow. Make a decision, think about what you're doing and don't panic. Panicking isn't going to do you any good. The
casino will be open tomorrow. Make a decision. Think about it twice. My dad always told me when
I was growing up, when I did projects around the house, you measure twice, you cut once.
How many fucking times do people cut and then they go, oh shit, it's either it's too short.
Now I can't, I got to get another piece of wood. Same thing with investing. Same thing with
trading. People don't think, they just do.
And then they wonder why they, you know, they fucked up.
You know, think twice, then do, you know.
Anyway, I don't want to, by the way, you know what?
I don't want to shit talk this guy, but you know what?
He came and I let him talk for 35 minutes or whatever it was.
I didn't say one peep.
And then as soon as I speak, he's got all kinds of things to add so it's just it's very rude you know
nice but david likes to be you know david likes to be right right he's got to be right so i i get it
i you know i understand i see it's okay but it's not the end of the world.
Yeah, I agree, man.
I'm not going to make the same mistake that I did in 2022 where I just kind of just stuck to crypto.
And I didn't really do much.
Like after Luna went to zero, which was basically the worst day of
my life um i think all i did after that was short from 31 to 17 um and then i bought a few coins that
summer and then i sold after uh caroline became ceo of ftx and i basically didn't do a damn thing um until ftx went zero
um and then what happened happened right the next three years bull market all that stuff and then
just kind of looking back um it was actually better to be to to look for long opportunities in 2022 just so you didn't feed into that doomerism.
I mentioned it earlier on the show.
You could have longed oil first half of 2022 and then played that huge gamma squeeze over the summer of 2022.
Where the S&P, that was a gamma squeeze, man, from $3,600 all the way to $4,200.
That was a $4,300, something like that, wherever it was.
That was a huge fucking squeeze, dude.
You could have gotten some calls and printed hand over fist.
Whether as a lot of these downside moves, they really only happened...
It was either before or after FOMC and CPI.
Those were your two big shorts, right?
And in reality, I think the biggest red day that year,
where shorts profited the most was during that Monday in June.
They called it Black Monday 2.0, whatever it was I remember.
I think there was a CPI on a Friday or a Thursday or something like that.
And then Monday we had like a 5% gap down or, or something like that.
But either way, like I've been looking more for long opportunities in this environment rather than looking for shorts.
And if that means I have to go through a little bit of drawdown, then, then so be it.
Right.
I think Sandisk helped out a lot over the last few months and then that rotation to
solaris what we'll see what happens with that i got that off of matt um i looked into it a little
bit i like what they do they have some pretty good partnerships um it's a nice low cap play and
as i said before right like i understand i'm buying a breakout but it's not
like crypto where a lot of the times with these lower cap names um when you do buy the breakout
you you get dumped on severely by a handful of people and then you're just holding the bag for
like a couple of months or something like that until you break even like i think crypto people that are just obsessed with
all coins um like really obsessed with all coins kind of the way like the laser right maxi people
they they soy jack over every bitcoin block that's confirmed um what's so they don't understand for
me what is that soy jack is like the meme before Chud. You know what a Chud is?
Chud?
Yeah, Chud.
What's a Chud?
A Chud is just a man who just enjoys being a Chud.
Is that like a Chad, but a Chud?
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
So you know what a Chad is, right?
So Chud is like the normie version of a Chad.
It's like a low tier Chad.
The vernacular I learn in his spaces is just mind-blowing.
I have two boys that are early.
One's going to be 20, one's 19, and one's going to be 22.
And I learn all kinds of new words, terminology from these guys.
And anytime I go into these spaces, I always pick up a few words.
It's funny because
sometimes i'll use them when i'm talking to my son one of them's still at home and the other
one's in college but he always laughs at me when i try to use these words these terms but anyway
going back to the kind of market you know i think with the with the crypto you know you know my view
on crypto crypto is largely in my mind you know kind of oh here but basically just to sum it up man with the whole chud a chud is basically a chad who doesn't stress over the craziness that happens right it's like
nothing ever happens okay you know it's like all these wartime headline news oh man oil's going to
200 a barrel and then the chud wakes up and he's like nothing ever happened it's back to back to
business you know got it so got it yeah
yeah well that's good yeah that's the way it should be but you know look the i i you know as far as
crypto you know my view is as you know uh specifically not bitcoin but the crypto uh
environment you know the kind of the ecosystem outside of bitcoin uh Bitcoin is largely including Bitcoin.
But really, the stuff you're talking about is, you know, the high octane stuff is largely
risk on risk off, you know, and sometimes that lags, sometimes that leads risk assets.
It just kind of depends on the environment.
But you know, specifically when we talk about risk on or risk off with equities, you know, the last, you know, the last, you know, the last few weeks, you know, we've seen weeks, really the last few months and several quarters, we've seen, you know, a rotation out of certain sectors and into others and largely from growth into value.
others and largely from growth into value. That's been an ongoing theme for a while now.
It's, you know, but it's not a linear thing. It happens over time. A lot of people expect
things to happen in a linear fashion. And it might happen that way for a few days or weeks.
And then, you know, you have a pretty significant, you know, reset before you have a resumption in the trend. And so, but I think overall,
I think we're in a more of a risk off
as opposed to a risk on environment.
But you're going to have these days and weeks
where tomorrow good news may come out
and stocks could rip higher.
So, you know, for those guys that are like shorting stocks
or, you know, talking about shorting stocks, you know, you got to be really, really careful,
because this is really, we're in kind of uncharted territory here. This is,
this administration is unlike any other, you know, this, you can make a case for a massive bull run.
If some kind of crazy, you know, agreement happens, if, you know,
if Trump caves and gives everything that Iran wants, just because he wants to be done with it,
we could have a pretty significant reversal in risk assets to the upside. And it'll just crush
a lot of people that have been betting against it. Conversely, if this continues and is unresolved
over the next few weeks and months going into summer,
you could have the opposite. You could have a pretty significant correction.
So it's just hard to say, you know, which way that'll go exactly.
But the overriding theme, I think, for us has been growth to value rotation,
as exemplified by a lot of, you know, again, a lot of names today.
Our consumer staples names were crushing it. We had a couple of names above 10% today
on a day like this. You know, we have some names up in the single mid single digits,
pushing two digits. And then we had oil names were up nicely. But then we had some really bad
names, you know, Intel, as you know, I've talked about it.
We own Intel.
That took it on the chin again today, along with other chip stocks.
So you couldn't buck the trend in the overall tech melees today.
So there are certain areas.
Biotech was another interesting spot.
You know, we have a pretty significant position in biotech stocks.
That largely held in place today. And telecom and media did okay. So it's, again, I think it's really hard.
If you're trying to trade around narratives and you're good at it, you can make a lot of money.
If you're not good at it, you're going to lose a lot of money. So think about kind of before you
do, like I said before before you know measure measure twice cut
once you know so anyway that's but oh oh here dude look it's 2026 man and i got this bottle of pasta
sauce called yo mama's right it's probably the best pasta sauce and it's 2026. And whoever makes these products,
that is a short, dude.
Because I'm a large man,
and I've got huge hands.
Are they as big as cups?
I've got hands the size of oven mitts, okay?
Wow.
And I get this fucking jar,
and it won't open.
It would not open.
Well, what you need,
what you need,
what you need, Wabi,
is you need to get yourself these silicone,
they're like little silicone,
thin little silicone mats.
You put them over the jar
and then you get that grip
and then you can open it.
You can get them at Sur La Table
or any kind of kitchenware store. Get yourself... I have get yourself after long kitchenware i'm gonna long kitchen go go online on
amazon i'm sure you can buy they're just little silicon things that you stick over the jar and
gives you a lot of grip you know if you have weak hands uh that might help you
no i i do not have weak hands i i all i had to do was was he said it was i had to clench my buttocks but
anyways man uncle mike what's going on man i i saw you with the emojis um and that's that's
that's usually signal to send you a an invite bro what's up man well i only came in because somebody
What's up, man?
I only came in because somebody messaged me and said the crazy professor was yelling at O'Hare,
and then O'Hare was roasting him, which I thought was pretty funny.
I think O'Hare's view on that is largely correct.
I think that guy is just a product of a massive amount of delusion.
It's wild.
I don't think he uses AI,
but like if I wanted to use AI
to create a fictitious persona
of like a person who's pretending to be an investor
who's not even a professor,
but a dude who lives alone with a cat, right?
Who like doesn't clean anything in his house
and like kind of sits at the street corner every day.
You walk by like
who's that old guy just like talking to himself um he's the perfect example that he'll be telling us
that he's got a ticket for his fund for the next 10 years and you'll say well when is it open
and for the next 10 years he'll be saying it'll open the next quarter and the next quarter will
be it'll open next quarter and then the next quarter will be open the next quarter will be, it'll open next quarter. And then the next quarter will be open the next quarter. And there's just a lot of that, unfortunately.
There's a lot of delusion in the world.
But X seems to bring out like an exceptional,
an exceptional example or two of that embodied
in people like this crazy professor guy.
So anyway, I appreciate O'Hare's commentary and view on that i don't always agree with o'hare but
at least as it relates to that i i do agree with them and i do also agree generally about this
market i i think it's a healthy normal market uh there's of course a lot of there is a lot of
uh and by the way you're gonna have to remove ghosty if he's doing too many emojis he hasn't
earned the right to do the emojis.
You actually have to make some money, Ghosty, in order to do that.
If you don't make any money, you can't emoji.
So you've got to calm down, buddy.
But anyway, don't come off mute either.
Otherwise, we're going to get into a yelling match on 11th
and the whole space is going to get blown up.
But listen, I think it's a
healthy, I think it's an overall healthy rotation you're seeing. And I've been saying this for a
while. We have not had a really healthy market for some time. So much of the capital has gone
into just a few different ideas and it's gotten pretty crowded. The indexing methodology has
driven all the capital into basically a few things.
And what you're seeing now is a more healthy, normalized market where when there's a drawdown,
some of the money ends up in energy and some of it ends up in staples and some of it ends
up in utilities and other sectors that were not the beneficiaries of the kind of two to
three year AI boom that we've seen.
So I think we've never had so much noise from politics,
but a lot of it is just noise, right?
If you have a time horizon longer than a few weeks
or a few months, then the only thing the noise
is really good for is to maybe buy more
of something that's undervalued.
And there are more things that are undervalued.
And I think to O'Hara's point,
if there is some sort
of final agreement on the end of the current conflict, then yeah, obviously the prices you're
seeing right now are sort of not real. The sentiment will swing the other way and then
probably the prices will go too far if we get something there. And I think if you think about the overall structure,
it's just going to be very hard to get a really deep bear market
and recession when CapEx spending is still accelerating,
when you have the largest private companies in all of history
prepping to go out in the public markets over the next two or three quarters.
I think basically this year has mirrored, in my view, the last few years.
We had kind of a difficult start to 2025.
We had the Silicon Valley bank thing in the first quarter of 2023.
We sort of had a little bit of weakness in 2024 as well.
But of course, in Bitcoin, at least we had the ETF approval.
And so after a little dip, we had a nice rally into March.
But there's been some volatility pretty much every year.
But what we haven't seen is like sort of universal euphoria across the market.
We have not seen anything to me that I've over 25 to 30 years now watching markets that
looks like a traditional bull market.
And so I'm still looking for some of the basic heuristics you'd want to see before you would become, like, bearish to some larger degree.
I think it's going to be largely harmful, just as it's been over the last three years, it's going to be largely harmful to be a doomer.
It's going to be harmful to buy into all these conspiracy theories that are getting thrown around.
It's people like the crazy professor and doomer boomers like dark side who are largely i don't know what exactly they're selling i heard selling fear i don't know if that's true i think they're
selling some sort of subscription model or something right which again in order to get
people to pay up for your private subscription model, you need to scare them into thinking that there's value there.
That's a fundamental human emotion.
That's all fine and well and good.
But I like to talk to other investors who invest for a living because people who invest
for a living and don't sell anything else tend to have a more clear-eyed view on what's
happening in the market because they have to.
Because they're not making money like convincing people to be scared they're making money by making correct assessments of the
probability across long periods of time running an intelligent strategy around that keeping
an asset allocation that allows them to operate successfully sleep well at night but also maximize
their edge right and people who do that are just different beasts than crazy professors who are trying to get people to pay up
for a private telegram group. And so, you know, I've, I've been cautioning people in spaces about
this a lot. They're just a lot of charlatans. There are a lot of people who are pretending
to be something they're not. Uh, there are a lot of people who don't actually have direct
experience doing the things they're talking about and everybody's trying to
make a name for themselves which is fine like it's all well and good but people need to be aware that
that some of it is people trying to make a name for themselves not the commentary is not the
product of any sort of deep thinking or any direct experience and so a lot of it's just going to end
up consistently being wrong and the one thing i found to make money in markets over time is to consistently stay
bullish over long periods of time, because there's a positive asymmetry to being bullish
that you just don't get as a bear.
So even if you talk to some of the world's best short sellers, they'll tell you it's
actually a terrible business because most of the time shorting is a loser's game.
Even when you're winning, you're still paying, right?
You're paying a bunch to hold those shorts,
whether you're shorting stocks that pay dividends
or you're paying your broker to borrow the shares, right?
There's sort of a negative carry to everything you do as a short seller.
And that mindset, as it becomes pervasive,
as we've seen with Michael Burry and Jim Chanos,
it rewards you
for some moment in time, and then it punishes you for decades. And so guys like Chanos go from
owning a penthouse in New York or multiple of them, and then a house in the Hamptons to basically
being liquidated because his whole life revolves around trying to find the flaws in everything
instead of doing the opposite, which is a much better positive carry business, which is to try to find things that can work.
And what I try to do is one step further, and I try to find things that can work early when they're actually out of favor.
So I only place large bets when something is deeply hated, which is another layer of protection to the downside.
It's one thing to hit a trend correctly, like to be long Bitcoin over the last 15 years or be long AI over the last
three, four years. It's another thing to only make large purchases when you can find a lot of people
like my friend O'Hare here, who I do respect as an asset manager, but who is largely going to be
bearish on some of the things I'm long. But part of that is just a time horizon and a timing thing.
I like those names at much lower prices. I really like them at prices where O'Hare wasn't
even here. He wasn't paying attention. He didn't care at that moment. He showed up later after
those things were being talked about a lot of people. And I understand his aversion because
what he sees is a lot of people he knows don't have a lot of experience who are now clapping
and cheering for the things that, again, when I was taking my positions, there was nobody cheering.
Everybody hated those ideas. They're like, Mike, you're insane. How can you hold these things that have no volume and nobody
likes them and they draw down 30, 40% randomly every few weeks? How can you do that? And it's
like, well, because I have a view they're going to be worth 50 times more. It may take three to
five years, but I'm willing to hold those positions. And so, look, if that's your mindset,
you're just not going to care too much about crazy professors and their complete quackery when they come into these spaces because I don't want to be broke living in a one bedroom apartment in New York with a cat without having being able to afford a cleaner to come and clean up the McDonald's that's on the on the coffee table.
Like, I don't want to live like that.
I don't want to pretend to be a professional.
I want to actually do the work.
I actually am in the market every day investing real monies so so i don't want to have to live
like that so i cannot listen to quacker i can listen to it as entertainment but i absolutely
refuse to invest around it because it's complete uh all it's going to do over time is make people
poor um and that's just not a world i want to live in. So that's kind of
my view. I really don't think anything's changed. Today, depending on what you held, was kind of a
nasty day. There were basically one or two nasty days every single week for the last six weeks,
six, seven weeks, right, since early February. But the funny thing is I'm looking at my book
personally, and I have a slightly different portfolio than most traditional growth investors or most small-cap equity investors or most crypto investors, so it doesn't really look like anyone else's stuff.
But I'm basically flat.
I'm a little bit up from where we were in early February.
And coming in today, I was up a little bit for the year, and at the close today, I'm down a little bit for the year.
But completely immaterial movements from a volatility standpoint that really don't say anything about how the rest of the year is
going to go we're not even done with the first quarter we've got three quarters to come from a
seasonality standpoint i expect q2 and maybe q4 to be be pretty good maybe this summer to be a
little bit quieter again that could depend on spacex and and and some the resolution on iran
and some of these other things and the Fed chair.
So there's always going to be fun and surprises.
But I think as I look out to this year, if you're basically flat here and you're skewed towards volatility and risk and you want volatility,
like as you look out, but obviously you want to capture some of the positive volatility as well,
then this is actually a great environment to be in.
I think you should be pretty bullish here.
You know, what's interesting is if you look at everything I'm hearing, and I've been in a lot of
spaces recently with you and others, you know, and there's been a lot of people, you know, screaming
from the, you know, at the top of their lungs about how bad things are. It's just absolutely
the end of the world. And, you know, like, as of today, I was just looking, you know, the NASDAQ's down around 8%, taking the brunt of this drawdown, obviously, with the large
mega cap stocks, you know, and the S&P 500 is down about just five and a half, something like that,
just over 5%. The Russell's performed the best. I think it's flat on the year, year to date. These are
year to date numbers. And so the Russell, no, we benchmarked, we're small mid, so we benchmarked
to the Russell and specifically mid cap value. And so our benchmark's up about two and a half percent,
you know, just over 2% year to date. So nothing to scream home about, but we're up about 5%. We were up as of the end
of last week, almost pushing 10% on the quarter. And we've given back half of that just in the last
probably week or so. So it has been a roller coaster, but it's not the end of the world.
I run a much more concentrated uh and even smaller cap average
market cap right and and i don't do during a during a middle stages of a of a market cycle
i don't do a lot of hedging i don't do that until i see heuristics that tell me that we're over
we really haven't had any of those we haven't tripped any of those indicators in three years
but but i was up 33 on a closing basis on like, I don't know,
third week of January.
By the end of January, I was only up 20, right?
By the first week of February on the overnight,
based on the overnight marks, right,
which obviously didn't hold that day when Bitcoin bounced off 59,
I was down, I don't know, 6%, 7%, 8%.
Coming into today, I was up 7%,
and now I'm down 2% or something, right?
Yeah, well, that goes with your territory.
It is, but I don't – it doesn't change anything because I know that when risk does go up, right?
So let's say the NASDAQ even turns and goes back to positive year-to-date.
I'll be up 30% again.
Right.
Now, imagine trying to trade around that volatility.
I just don't.
All I do around the edges is when people give me prices.
Like the price on the screen today for Cypher does not reflect the value of three hyperscaler contracts.
Now, the market doesn't know who the third hyperscaler is, but I'm pretty confident it's Microsoft or Meta, and I'm pretty confident it's 100 megawatts at Stingray.
And, of course, I have more information because I'm deep in that market.
I'm looking at that.
Morgan Stanley's like, oh, yeah, that adds a billion
to a billion two to the market cap,
and the market cap's down, whatever it is,
500 million or 600 million.
So I look at that and I go, great.
It's not free money, but on a probabilistic basis,
you'd rather be adding there than selling
because you know even if you're wrong longer term,
which I don't think you're going to be
on the demand story here,
at some point in the next quarter or two,
the market's going to give you some obscenely higher price.
Because every single year for these types of equities,
that's exactly what the market does.
Well, you have to remember,
it's the highest beta stuff that got really hit.
Like today was a great example of that.
It wasn't just the miners, for instance,
the ones you're referring to,
but it was everything.
I mean, take a look at some of these lunar,
you know, like some of these drone stocks,
you know, anything related to military drones.
And I mean, I'm looking across the board here.
I mean, look, Rambus was down.
Uber was down big.
Archer, Joby, on, on.
I mean, just the list goes on and on and on about all of those.
So the highest beta stuff obviously got hit the most today.
Tomorrow may be a different day.
And that's the problem.
It's like no one knows.
Everybody's trading on these narratives.
That's incorrect.
That's the best thing to do.
I agree with you.
Whoever's trading the oil futures and buying call options just before.
Well, if you have that inside social
baron trump or somebody knows we don't know because we're not in the inner circle i am going
to mar-a-lago uh next month for an event i'm going to speak at an event at mar-a-lago in april uh so
don't be mad at me o'hare i know you hate trump and i know but don't let your trump hatred get
get in the way of your friend mike going and kissing
the ring at ma'am lago i mean we got to do these things in asset management but anyway like i think
i think like my summary is that if you're leaning in to risk and volatility and you're and you
manage to be flat uh year to date and as i have and it sounds like you know o'hare's done better
than that at least as of the close today,
then you're in better shape than you were
every single year for the last three years,
and you made money in all those years.
If you're looking the way I was,
2023 was a good year,
2024 was an okay year,
and 2025 was a fantastic year,
and 2025 had the biggest drawdown
at the beginning of the year,
2024 had the least,
and 2023 had a marginal one that was reversed literally on a weekend on a Sunday
because the Fed, FDIC, and Treasury bailed out Silicon Valley Bank deposit holders overnight
and sent the market higher for the rest of the spring, right?
And that started a big NASDAQ rally.
Like, everything was rallying.
Every large-cap tech company rallied out of that bailout.
So we're right back in the same place
like to some degree the more they bring things down and the more they scare people now the more
compression they create for the inevitable release and again you don't even have to know whether
there's going to be a recession or not you just have to know that if they compress it enough
that the bounce will be bigger in magnitude right right? And such that you'll have plenty of opportunities
to de-risk if you need to.
But more importantly, if there isn't a recession,
then this is going to be one of your last
good buying opportunities for the year.
Because if it's anything like any of these previous years,
like the market's starting to exhibit a pattern
around some of this bullshit.
I think most of it is bullshit, candidly.
Again, you know, you voted for the other candidate,
I voted for this candidate.
I'm not pleased with everything that I've seen.
It seems to be a bit of a shit show a lot of the times.
But I still think, and this is Realpolitik,
I still think it's possible the net outcome,
if you look back 10 years from now,
would have been the same or would have been better.
And I think a lot of that is just,
it's a counterfactual because we'll never know.
But I'm imagining a world where things are more stable
with Kamala Harris,
but not necessarily better 10 years later.
Yeah, I mean, it's just, you know,
there's a lot of uncertainties, let's put it that way.
And the administration's not helping the situation
by, you know, bouncing around from one
thing to the next to the next. It's really been a lot of inconsistent messaging. And as you know,
probably the worst thing for investors is inconsistency, is not clarity.
And when you don't have that clarity, and when I say clarity, we don't need to know exactly what
is going to happen. We just don't want to know what's going to happen today.
And then something else happens.
The opposite happens tomorrow.
And then the next day, the opposite.
I mean, it's just, it's like a yo-yo, this administration.
I mean, really what they need to do is do less.
Let's speak less.
Let's literally let the market kind of do its thing.
It's kind of like what the Fed, you know, the Fed used to never speak, you know.
And when the Fed started speaking, it really added another element to, you know, to the markets
that I think, you know, increased volatility.
You know, I think when you look back over the last kind of 25 years and you look at,
you know, kind of the Bernanke era and pre-Bernanke era, you know, with Alan Greenspan, things
have certainly changed a lot.
And now the bet is just constantly speaking.
And I don't think it's helpful in a lot of ways,
you know, unfortunately.
I was thinking about it today.
I think Trump, I think the general consensus
is that Trump wants the market to go up
and cares a lot about the market going up
and the key component of how he measures his outcomes.
Sure, absolutely. That's the consensus view. But I'm actually thinking it's something different. going up and the key component of how he measures his outcomes.
That's the consensus view.
But I'm actually thinking it's something different.
I think he values being able to move the market more than he even cares about which way the market's going.
To a point, if he tanks the market enough, then he'll do something to try to pump it
off of the lows just so he doesn't look too bad.
But I think what matters to him more is that he can still move it. He gets off on the fact that he could. And I think that's a bit of a narcissistic
tendency that we all know he's probably a bit of a narcissistic sociopath in a lot of ways. He's
our cuddly, friendly, narcissistic sociopath who was buddies with Epstein. Right. But it is what
it is. Hopefully the net result of his policies are positive. But I don't think very many people
should be sitting here now going, oh, this is a really good person that we elect.
Like a very stable genius guy who's psychologically perfectly sound, or if he went to a therapist would say, you know what, you've got it all resolved.
You don't need to come back for another therapy session.
Like clearly he has every single tendency you wouldn't necessarily want someone to have, particularly if you're going to have a close relationship with them because they're going to be extremely mercurial and volatile
and all over the place from a logic standpoint.
But we are where we are.
And, you know, last year he moved the market down quite a bit.
And then the market, he let the market go, right, from basically April till October.
And then the market started to worry that he was going to meddle again.
And, of course, that's exactly what he did.
I think the market collectively is smarter than people think,
especially now with prediction markets and some of these things.
You can kind of tell that there's always some insiders.
There seems to be huge leakages in his administration.
And so the market is leaking that information,
and smart people are picking it up, and they're realizing,
oh, we need to price in the risk that he's going to do things that are actually going to be
destructive. And so the only question now is, will he back off enough at some point over the next
month or two to allow a similar type of decompression? I still think the odds are likely
that that's the case. I realize that it might not go that way this year. I never bet everything on one direction, right? But if I had to bet my life on an outcome,
I'm just going to continue betting that, right,
over the next quarter or two.
Things are going to become more positive
because I think the amount of downside pain
he's going to be willing to take at some point
is going to be capped.
But just like last year,
once he feels like he gets whatever outcome he wants,
right, he job-owned the market so much with tariffs, finally just backed off on it.
And the market kind of went ballistic to the upside. This year, it seems to be all about
geopolitics. I think if, if to some degree, he backed down a little bit, or Iran backs down a
little bit, like you have a window leading into a Fed change and then lower rates, even Levinson,
the crazy professor is saying that rates have to come down now.
I mean, I was saying that – I've been saying that for a long time, but it's funny.
Levinson waits until the data already shows that it's going to be necessary, and then he flips, which is always too late in markets.
But, you know, to each their own.
Matt, what's up, bro?
How are you?
We got a hand up.
I just noticed.
What's up?
I can't hear you, man.
I can't hear him.
Can you guys hear him?
I can't hear Matt at all. I can't see Matt even being on stage
I only see
I saw him on stage but I couldn't hear him
he's not on stage for me
Matt
take off and then come back
I think there's something wrong with your connection
I turned off wifi
I hope one day man that this platform
is streamlined as Kik and Twitch, man.
I hope because this is unreal.
I give it like a year, man.
And I think Spaces will actually be competent.
I know, man.
They're trying to save money so bad.
They turned off DarnOd.
They're trying to save money so bad. They turned off dark out. They're trying to save money so bad.
Matt, you see that rotation from Sandisk to Solaris, man?
I had a feeling, brother.
I had a feeling.
Well, this was...
It gave me a signal, bro.
Well, this dates back to January.
You'll recall a lot of us were right here in those spaces. And I was saying,
you know, last year, you could have thrown a dart at anything AI and made money. You know, 2025 was
AI. And I thought and was tweeting that 2026, I think will be energy. And we're just seeing that
play out. You know, four months later, XLE is up almost 40%.
That's nuts for a massive ETF, 40% in four months.
And honestly, I doubt this is the top for energy.
Smaller names, like you said, like, yeah, Solaris and anything that touches AI and are fueling data centers and are fueling Mag7 and fueling a lot of those private companies too.
They have some crazy gains.
They're up 3x, 5x year over year, up 50%, 75% year to date.
But I think this keeps playing out. We're only four months into
2026 and all these geopolitical tensions ends up fueling this rotation in energy, not hampering it
as people realize, okay, before maybe energy was a limiting factor. Now it definitely is today. So you see,
you see all sorts of names, Exxon and the small and micro caps, like truly silly names,
all catching a bid. And so, you know, just like, just like 2025, where everyone thought there was
a genius, if they bid something AI, I think that we're going to just keep seeing that throughout 2026.
You know, people will be, you know, showing off their, hey, you know, I'm in an LNG startup and they're going to be the mag 7 of liquefied natural gas.
Just you wait, like, you know, there's going to be to be silly bathing season, in my personal opinion.
So it's early, but that's what I think still happens. And then big picture, I think this is
why the presidential cycle is undefeated. Not to get specific about any one president, but it just
seems election after election, cycle after cycle, give the new president or a previous president,
but give him a year or a year and a half, and eventually poor decisions catch up with him,
and the market takes it on the chin. To Mike's point, I think we all thought we dodged a bullet with the tariffs conundrum and Liberation Day ridiculousness.
But then, you know, the running it back turbo with all these global conflicts.
it was super interesting that today's press conference, Trump was lamenting. He was complaining
that this Iran conflict is taking all the oxygen and taking longer than he expected because he is
interested in getting started with Cuba. He's eyeing Cuba as the next domino that ought to be
toppled over. I don't think this is anywhere near done, even if we suddenly wrap up a piece.
To be fair, Cuba probably would go our way somewhere between Venezuela and Iran.
Iran is very dicey if we put boots on the ground, and it has a lot of implications for oil,
whereas Cuba is just a place in our own neighborhood.
I'm not saying that it would go down easily, but look at how well the Cuban forces did
defending Maduro against our special forces.
It's in our neighborhood.
It's in our region.
We can get resources there quickly.
Whatever happens there, if he wants to precipitate something, it's probably our neighborhood, it's in our region, we can get resources there quickly.
Whatever happens there, if he wants to precipitate something,
it's probably over quite quickly.
Iran is just a much bigger, thornier problem.
So I think there's a spectrum between Venezuela and Iran,
and he's gone to the far end of the spectrum.
We certainly don't want to bait China into attacking Taiwan or something like that, because that would actually cause real problems.
And that's where, if Taiwan's attacked tomorrow, then I think all bets are off, right? But in the
absence of that, he can walk back on Iran and everything else that he wants to do geopolitically
will probably be less dicey, is my view. But continue, I didn't mean to fully cut you off,
I just think Cuba and Iran are just so different that it's worth commenting on.
No, you're absolutely right, absolutely right. They're very different. You're right. Hopefully, knock on wood, Cuba would be more in the line
of Venezuela and a lot less thorny incursion. But listen to us. I think that's the big picture
narrative. Anyone who thought, oh, Venezuela is just a one-off, remember six months ago,
all that talk about Greenland, oh, that's just a one-off. Oh, Venezuela, that's just a one-off. Remember six months ago, all that talk about Greenland,
oh, that's just a one-off. Oh, Venezuela, that's just a one-off. Oh, Iran, well, once Iran finishes,
whenever it does finish, that's just a one-off. No, this seems to be the absolute theme for year
two of the administration. It doesn't seem like he's seen anything to slow down.
And I worry that people are saying that, oh, the markets will make him turn around.
Well, in 2025, I don't think Trump tacoed until S&P 500 was negative 20% and NASDAQ was negative 25% and bonds are absolutely spiking.
That, I mean, hopefully it doesn't take that, but that's when he taco'd last year.
Matt, I don't think he can afford to take it.
I mean, I don't think we can go.
Remember, right now we are in earnest going into election season.
Like right now it's ramping up all over the country.
And so we have midterms
coming up in just a few months. I don't think you can afford to have a 20%, even if it is short term,
because that's going to be on top of mind for most people, you know, and by the way,
the way things are playing out, I don't think it's going to be, if we have a pretty significant
correction, I'm not sure it's going to end up like 2022, where we have a V-shaped recovery.
I'm not sure it's going to end up like 2022 where we have a V-shaped recovery.
I think 2022 and today are two different beasts in my mind.
2022 was no V-shaped recovery.
That was one of the longest, most painful bear markets.
No, it was pretty quick.
I mean it started to recover very quickly.
No, what?
I don't think it's going to do that now.
2022 was as brutal for bonds as it was for equities, as it was for Bitcoin, as it was for gold even.
Like no one, nothing was spared in 2022.
Like I said, I mean, it's a different backdrop today than 2022.
I mean, totally different.
But, you know, again, if you just look at 2022 and, you know, where we bottomed,
you know, it came back pretty quickly.
I mean, a lot quicker than I think a lot of people were expecting from a drawdown of that magnitude.
You know, so I think, you know.
We remember 2022 very differently, but that's okay.
You know, I guess it's all your manner of perspective.
Listen, Matt, by July of 23, we were already pushing previous highs.
So it was really quick.
On which? On S&P 500?
Yeah, S&P and the NASDAQ.
Yes, I'm not talking about crypto.
I'm talking about stocks.
So if you look at kind of where we bottomed in October of 2022,
by the time July, six months later, seven months later,
we were pushing previous highs.
So that's quick, by the way.
Yes, but that discounts.
That's a very quick.
That's dismissing.
That's two quarters.
Yes, but you're fast forwarding the entire slow, painful bleed down to October 2022.
It took you almost the whole year to get there.
Yes, I agree with you.
I agree with you.
Once you finally hit the exact pico bottom in October 2022, the bounce was pretty good.
Now you're going back. You're peddling backwards. Here's the thing.
Again, just to be clear, what I said was we had a pretty significant – we had a very significant drawdown in 2022.
A lot of tech stocks were down 30%, 40%, 50%, in some cases 60% plus, and they were back at new highs by the following summer, two quarters.
That's a significant rebound. I'm not sure we're going to have a similar situation if
Trump and the administration allow kind of an unraveling, if you will, a 20% plus correction
because they do some stupid shit or they continue to do stupid shit. So I'm not sure we're going
to have, I'm not sure from here we can have the same type of a rebound.
I'd be very, very careful.
The backdrop is much, much different today.
Well, see, now there's where I agree with you.
The one big difference between 2022 and 2026 is that past bear market, we had no problems in the labor market.
You still had solid jobs growth month after month.
Yes, inflation was brutal.
You had 6 percent, then 7.5 percent, then it topped out at 9. Yes, inflation was brutal. You had 6%, then 7.5%, then it topped
out at 9.5%, above 9%. But the labor market was solid throughout that whole bear market.
This time, you're right. We've been at net neutral, no growth in labor market for over
half a year now, and we're flirting with negative jobs
growth so you're right i look i'm i'm i'm one i'm trying to stay bullish uh medium long term i'm not
trying to i'm not selling anything i'm by the way the other thing you have to yep the other thing
we should consider as as investors i think uh and and even as traders really to be to be frank
many of you guys are trading
in and out of stuff. But specifically as investors, whether you're investing in stocks or Bitcoin or
what have you, is the fact that this year, we're going to have over the next 12 months,
starting now, over 10 trillion in refinancings that the Fed's going to need to do. So or the
Treasury. So I'm not sure how that's all going to go down. I think
long bonds are signaling that's going to be a little bit harder than I think most people realize.
That's a significant amount of money. I mean, think about it. We have a, what, a 35, 38 trillion
economy, something like that. A third of the economy, you know, 10 trillion plus in refinancing
this year. So I'm not sure that's going to be an easy endeavor.
So that's just one more thing to add
to the already kind of confusing backdrop.
Well, I think they need to...
So for right now, for here in the spring...
And by the way, I think they need to...
So it's an interesting year, to say the least.
I agree with you. I agree with you.
I agree with you.
You're right.
Like a rational actor would be looking at the calendar and be freaking out because those
midterms are getting closer by the day.
Honestly, the average American citizen makes up their mind about the fall election over
the summer.
So if you think about it, you got the rest of spring into the summer to turn this ship
around because by the fall is too late honestly this is why you can't make up their right this
is why i think that you can't he can't let this thing get out of the out of control and have like
a 20 25 correction uh i i don't think it's i i agree with you guys earlier what mike said and
what you just said so he's he's the fireman and the and he's the he's the said. He's the fireman and he's the
arsonist and the fireman, but he's
been able to get away with it for a long time.
I'm not sure. I think it's pushing
on a string now. I think what
led us here is not going to be what gets us out of here.
I think it's a much different calculus
here.
I'm hopeful
for a taco,
a complete taco. Yes. I'm hopeful that rational actors prevail and they don't want to get wiped out in the midterms and they don't want to see unemployment&P 500 fall through negative 20%
and be an official bear market.
I hope, I really hope they taco hard here.
But, you know, hope's a strategy.
More like a hard taco versus a soft taco?
I mean, I'll take any kind of taco.
Give me a grande, give me half a dozen, you know.
I'll take taco bill, give me taco bueno. Matt, we may get a take – Listen, with this administration, we may –
Matt, we may get a whole enchilada with this administration.
Give me Mexican. Give me Tex-Mex. I'll take Puerto Rican.
Give me all the tacos, honestly, for my family.
You'll even do chalupas at this rate.
I mean, chalupas.
We might even get a chalupa. We might get a chalupa.
Hey, Matt, let me ask you a question, man.
I'm not a man that asks many questions, but, dude, this price action reminds me a lot of the second half of 2023.
I think crypto has a huge possibility of front running any downside of the equity markets.
And I'm looking at things like Hyperliquid.
I'm looking at TAL now.
And I'm looking at ETH as well.
Like, how the hell is ETH still above $2,000 with the SPX and the Qs down as much as they are?
Well, this is a really interesting point because we talked about this the other day, excuse me, in a space.
What you just said is really, really interesting, but it's not correct.
Because what you said was, how can they be holding up this well, given how far the equity markets have dropped? And really, like, I want to go back to what you said was we're how can they be holding up this well given how
far the equity markets have dropped and really like i want to go back to what i said earlier
dude we are we are not we we're still at all-time highs here guys i mean we're off a few percent
from the all-time highs i mean like i said smp 500 i think is down just over five and a half percent
that has that as of today is down eight percent so we're nowhere we're not even in correction
territory obviously so yeah but that's because so much money has rotated into energy and industrial as of today is down 8%. So we're nowhere, we're not even in correction territory, obviously, Wavi.
But that's because so much money has rotated into energy and industrial.
Let me just finish this out.
So I would say this, you're right to point that out,
but I think the alarmist view I would disagree with
because we're not anywhere near kind of
what I would consider to be like territory
where I'd be worried.
And by the way, you have to remember remember Bitcoin was down 40% going into this.
So this is why Bitcoin is still bouncing around between, say, 68 and 71, 72.
It's because it already had a massive drawdown going into this.
I know you're of the belief that you think crypto front runs equities a lot of the time.
It does.
He's right.
No, but that's true.
It does.
Wavi, remember last year, if we rewind, it would have been four now five months ago.
But think November and especially December 2025.
Think November and especially December 2025.
Remember how many people kept trying to tell you, look you right in the face and tell you, oh, Bitcoin and other crypto.
But Bitcoin decoupled from broader markets.
Bitcoin is doing something irrational.
It's just off on its own.
But the signal, look at S&P 500.
Look at the MAG7.
Look at the blue chips uh that's
where that's where uh we're going but no it was actually bitcoin was giving you an early warning
signal we kept we kept wondering like I I you know what I think bitcoin might be the canary in the
coal mine of of a problem out here and sure enough uh uh bitcoin sold first. Look at the MAG7. Much of them, they put in their last all-time high in 2025, not 2026. Software is a disaster. Anything that had a high PE is brutal right now. You could have fleed to safety in as energy and industrials and the, quote unquote, harder equities that deal with commodities.
That was the only safety.
And if you strip out those three sectors, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ look way different.
They're being held up.
By the way, those three sectors are not that big.
They don't comprise. They comprise just a very small fraction of the overall index.
But they grew from nothing to – Mike's made this point, and I agree with him. They grew from
almost nothing to almost double digits now. But here's the thing. They're not the double
digits. But here's the thing. They're still largely – I'll give you an example. Like
energy, for instance, it's still less than 5% of the S&P 500.
I think it was 4% something last night checked, which, by the way, during the bottom and during
COVID, that sector represented less than 1%.
So I think there's still a lot of room to grow in these kind of –
So it's weighting and doubled.
That's what you just – essentially, it's weighting almost tripled, but more than doubled.
Yes, but what I'm saying is –
Energy never went to 1%.
I'm sorry.
That's incorrect.
It was like two degrees.
It was below 1%.
Yes, it was.
But my simple point is if you strip out those –
It was below 1% for briefly during the crash.
But my point is this.
But hold on, Matt.
My point is this.
Yes, from the bottom, energy has rallied tremendously.
But again, as a constituent of the S&P 500, as one of the 11 gig sectors, it still represents
just a fraction of the overall index. So it doesn't really move the needle too much. Now,
I think once we get to a place where it's maybe 10% of that index over the next, say,
five years, which I think is going to happen,
that is going to be more meaningful. So there's still a tremendous amount of opportunity in
certain sectors. Again, staples is another one. And Mike said something earlier that I,
this is once 100% I agree with him. I've talked about this many, many times.
It's the way that the indices are constructed. It's this passive bid into equity indices.
And that's really what's bastardized the market over the last decade.
And by the way, in earnest in the last five to six years,
I mean, it's really gotten bastardized.
In fact, when you look at the amount of ETF strategies out there,
there are now more ETF strategies than the stocks that they trade.
There's so much of this that they're not-
But that's okay.
It's not really okay. No, I don't think so. I think, I think, I don't think that they trade. There's so much of this that they're not- But that's okay. It's not really okay.
No, I don't think so.
I think, I think, I don't think that's okay.
I think, I think the guys like myself and Mike
and others that manage equity,
the way we manage, we're a dying breed.
We haven't for a very long time,
but I think there's going to be a resurrection
of active management over the next decade.
It's going to take a long time,
but the runway for young people that are wanting to get into this business with smart guys looking
to get ahead, looking to make an impact. I think active investing is going to be absolutely
critical. It's going to be the area to be in over the next decade plus. That's my opinion.
Whether it's hedge fund, whether it's long short strategies, risk, you name it, any kind of
strategies, but specifically guys that are actually active managers as opposed to passive investors. I think
that's that theme is going to play out over the next decade. If you have the time or if you have
the time or you have the, quite frankly, the money to hire those who excel at it, I agree with you.
hire those who excel at it. I agree with you.
There'll always be a special place for the
well-performing active managers, certainly. But you kind of said it earlier
where you just said S&P 500. We can
quibble about which sector is how much weighting, whatever, but S&P 500
is only down what? Negative 5%, negative 6% so far from its
all-time high five and
a half as of tonight i think so they so but actually so that kind of that kind of proves
the point like anyone who had just been standing strong and bidding uh spy etf or qqq etf they
have avoided a hell of a lot of pain while everyone else who maybe they were trying to put
their bury hat on and pretending they
were their own special hedge fund you know those without the skill or with the patience they might
be in a lot more pain right now yeah yeah that's true there it's a really really hey just one quick
um speaking of active management i gotta actively manage uh one of the companies where i'm an
investor so i gotta drop off i just want to say thanks for a great conversation today.
Good to hear you.
And not doing the whole crazy professor,
doomer, boomer thing that keeps taking over.
Uncle Mike, man, what champagne are we opening this weekend, man?
I'm opening probably VA car stem owner Dom tonight.
I'm actually taking my wife out for steak.
And then we're going to open a bottle of 2007 Scarecrow,
which if you could even find it in a restaurant,
it would be like $3,000 a bottle
because I don't give a fuck what the market tells me the prices are today.
I only care about the value of the business,
which is why I'm going to go hop on this iron board call
because we've got to build stuff over the next 10 years.
It's not about the price today.
It's about 10 years, maybe 20 years of building.
So I've got to run.
I've got to go do actual work.
You guys have fun.
Thanks again.
Bye.
Thanks for coming on.
Uncle Mike,
Matt,
I feel the same way about Solaris,
man.
I'm telling you.
Absolutely.
I've got a gut feeling,
man.
And like it worked out.
Sandisk down.
Solaris is kind of like still at my entry at 60.
I think it outperforms majors going into the end of the year from here
until the end of the year but if it has a huge spike to like i don't know 10 billion by the way
i like i like i'm gonna get some more hype i like everything energy i really do i mean
even if iran never happened i think this narrative has super strong legs well into 2027.
It's the limit or a factor for AI.
It's underinvested.
Without this – yes, exactly, Matt.
You're right on – you're preaching to the choir here.
Energy is the place to be long-term.
It's not a linear thing.
Just have an allocation of energy.
If you're an investor, whether you do it through an
ETF, there are plenty of those energy ETFs, or just pick a few large cap, very dominant names
in the energy space and hold them for the next five, 10 years to your 30-year-old guy. Buy it,
forget about it. I think they're going to do fantastically well.
But there's so many different ways. There's so many fun ways you can play it. Like,
you know, Wabi's talking about Solaris Energy Infrastructure,
which is a small cap that they're mostly in Texas,
but they're in the U.S. helping fuel data centers
and get their chips online empowered.
But, like, if you don't want to play in small caps,
like there's plenty of medium caps like Bloom Energy that are doing the exact same thing.
I think they're at like $60 billion market cap.
Solaris might be at like $5 billion.
But you could stick to the mega caps.
You could stick to like GE Vernova that are doing it on the massive $100 billion scale.
There's so many different ways.
You're more of a seasoned investor, Matt, than a lot of people listening in spaces like this. So
I would say for somebody like yourself, pick some names across the board, across the cap spectrum.
For the average investor, the lower down the cap scale you go, the more risk you're taking,
just as a, you know, and so just be aware that, you know, if you're out there looking at penny
stocks in the energy space or in the mining space or in the precious metals space or the wherever space, small micro cap stocks can lead to very big returns.
They can also lead and often do to zero.
And so you got to be really, really careful how you size those investments.
I'm not saying you shouldn't look at those, but I am saying just be really careful and understand that a lot of those companies that are just up and comers, many of those will fail.
Many of those will have equity raises that dilute the living shit out of existing shareholders.
Many of them will raise debt that they won't be able to pay off later.
So just be careful as the average investor have an allocation across the spectrum.
And the easiest way to do that is really just
through the ETFs. Absolutely. No, I agree. I absolutely agree with you there. But you're
right. If you don't want, if you don't want single, if you should have an allocation.
Yeah. If you like the, if you like the narrative, if the thesis makes sense to you,
but you don't want to have single company, single point of failure. Yes, absolutely. Stick to XLE.
company um single point of failure yes absolutely stick to xle that's the massive energy xle there
are a bunch of xle yeah yeah and again xle is up 40 in four months like this is not just a sleepy
grandfather like oh but ets are so boring like no no no no it is outperforming so much of the market right now. And it's not done. It's not done.
Yeah. I mean, a lot of the large integrated oil names have done really, really well back, you know, on the back of this instability in the Middle East, this war that's going on.
Again, I think if you can, if you're really good at geopolitics and you can kind of, if you have a crystal ball and can figure out how this is going to kind of end,
you can make a lot of money.
I don't have a crystal ball.
I don't think Trump has one.
It's very difficult to know.
I don't even think the administration really knows
what's going to happen, you know,
going into this weekend, next week,
let alone a month from now.
So just, you know, just be aware
that this is a really complicated situation
and there are a lot of players involved
and all of them have different, you know, access to grind here.
You know, they, they all kind of, they all want something.
So you just have to be very fair.
You just have to be really careful.
You know, and you know, a month from now, or let's actually,
let's go further out than that. Three months from now,
we might look back and realize, Oh, you,
you were just a week or two away from the complete taco,
and now the market's V-shaped there.
And if you had just had the confidence to invest
in whatever was in your watch list, you're probably well up.
Hopefully that's what happens three months from now.
Hopefully we get some sort of cooler heads prevail.
We get some sort of cooler heads prevail, we get some sort of resolution. I don't, I don't see, I don't, there's no scenario where a massive boots on the ground,
call it invasion or incursion or whatever you want to call it. I don't see that as helpful.
The best case scenario right now is some sort of peace agreement, ceasefire,
reopening the strait, and not damaging more infrastructure. So I'm trying to keep it
positive. Hopefully we have better months ahead in the summer. Yeah, I think we have another guy in
here, Small Cap Sniper. Yeah, we have another speaker here if you want to have him join.
Small Caps, what's up, man?
Yeah, what's up, guys?
Appreciate the lob.
Wabi, how are you feeling, man?
Is everything all right?
I'm feeling a lot better.
I tell you what, man.
Yeah, what was wrong with you, dude?
What did you get?
Yeah, so basically what happened was my cordial nerve was exposed on my wisdom tooth.
And that nerve is responsible for brain activity, for motor mobility, for your jaw.
And basically, there was a possibility that half of my body wasn't going to work because the nerve was moving.
And when you have a nerve.
Was it a cavity or what happened?
So I was eating chicken wings and I, I guess I bit down too hard and I chipped it.
And I don't believe wisdom teeth should be taken out, in my opinion, unless like it grows in a certain way.
But I chipped it and it was just
supposed to be a regular dentist appointment, but I chipped it, um, ironically, like right before I
started Friday's show and, um, yeah, I got there and they did the whole x-ray thing and they saw
the nerve moving and I had to sign two consent
forms because there was a big possibility that something was going to go wrong and when i tell
you is that nerve on the top of your jaw or the bottom jaw uh it's it's it's it's uh it was the
right wisdom tooth and that's like at the bottom yeah yeah yeah it's like at the bottom and and that
connects all the way to where your temple is to where your ear is down your neck um so anything
in regards to like dental could actually affect the rest of your body more so than than people
know like if like for example if you have gum disease that is um that is signal that you can go under cardiac arrest.
I think over 90% of people that have cardiac arrest have some sort of gum disease.
Yeah, it's bacterial infections and stuff.
You know, it reminded me when you said the wisdom tooth in your brain and you might not be able to do that.
It reminded me of the song Chickadee China, the Chinese chicken.
Yeah, from the 90s. Very naked ladies. Yeah, dude. They don't know. dude it reminded me of the song uh chickadee china the chinese chicken yeah ladies yeah dude
they don't they don't they don't they don't your brain stops ticking dude they don't make a good
white boy music anymore dude remember the songs that was they would go like do to do do to do
do and i will be there you know like the american like the american the american pie songs dude the chinese
yeah yeah yeah so anyway bad you're better that's good that sucks to have a toothache man that's the
worst yeah so basically it was like uh it was like a multi-hour procedure and i mean i still felt it
despite all the anesthesia and uh then i just had to go to the hospital after that because i
was in so much pain and i got out on monday and um yeah then yesterday was like when i started to
feel okay i could speak without that much pain and now like the swelling has gone down i could
i could actually speak um i could actually lift things and all that stuff so it's crazy how like the human body
could actually regenerate like wolverine um i've had i i have had some like health scares over the
last few years just getting sick and all that stuff and um it gets to a point where like you
understand what to do so anytime i feel like i'm about to get sick or whatever, I usually take the
day off and I just, I usually just get hooked on to a bunch of IVs and have vitamins injected into
me. And I think more people should have like every other month checkups or every three months
instead of once a year. And you'd be surprised, like, how many people don't actually know
when the last time they went to the dentist
or the last time they had a physical or a checkup, got blood work done.
You'd be amazed at how much better you can feel.
Well, you should go at least twice a year.
You should go at least twice a year.
I do it every other month.
At least once a quarter.
You should go twice a year for your cleanings at minimum, right?
Make sure you're okay and all that stuff.
Because you're right.
Dental hygiene is like really, really critical.
It's really important.
But anyway, we digress here.
Small Camp had some, I don't know if you wanted to add stuff.
Yeah, surely.
First of all, I'd be glad to hear that you're feeling well, my man.
I thought that it might have been something a little more serious when you messaged me that you were having surgery.
But glad you're well, glad you're back.
Yeah, you know, it's geopolitics and a headline driven economy and just market right now is
obviously really, really tough.
I try not to predict too much or just put my eggs in smaller, or I guess put my eggs in not as many baskets and
kind of focus on a couple of things just, just due to the, the volatility injections and just
how every, everything works. And obviously, you know, this, yeah, this, this war is much different
than a, than a Venezuela or Greenland, even Cuba potentially, just being that, you know,
Iran is not like anything to scoff at. They're obviously not a top 10 military or top 10
force, but I'd probably put them somewhere along the likes of like, you know, in Australia, Spain,
Ukraine, Israel, somewhere along those
lines. So it's definitely nothing to scoff at, as well as obviously just being across the pond.
But, you know, I'm not going to talk too much about just the war. I feel like you guys covered
it pretty well, and we're all in an agreement here. And, you know, I'd say that it's pretty
unfortunate that it happens now, especially for
Trump and the Republicans, just being that it is a, is a midterm year, we're going to be having
these elections soon. And it looks as if really we're going to see a pretty strong show out and
pretty strong win for the, for the Democrats. And then what does that say for the next two years?
You know, how much is going to be able to get done? What policy is going to pass the legislative branches?
So, you know, it's something to, it's interesting and it'll be interesting to see what the effects
are on the market. And when I say, you know, it's unfortunate, it's unfortunate too, for just some,
I guess some, some AI shareholders, because through all of the
just turmoil and everything that's been going on the last few weeks,
there still is trillions in CapEx that's being driven into this thing
and really reshaping the tech economy.
And it's pretty insane just the accelerating hunger for computing power
despite what the charts say.
SPY, S&P down almost 2% today, NASDAQ over 2%.
A lot of these AI growth plays are just getting absolutely, you know, crushed recently.
But nonetheless, you know, I think that the last three to four weeks have kind of just given us some fresh and, and, and demand as well. So I think it
really started on Wabi, I haven't been here for a while. I've been really busy the last, last couple
weeks. So it's good. It's good to be here, but you know, nonetheless, I think open AI has really
started to make a pivot with, with the Stargate project. So I guess, you know, you start there,
that massive flagship, uh, uh, campus in, in, in Abilene with Oracle and Crusoe as the developers.
You know, they were supposed to, like, it was in their, I wouldn't say in their contract, but they had that expansion option that was, the whole idea was a 2 gigawatt site going from 1.2 to 2.
And, you know, you had these power delays hit by the time those extra buildings would be online.
Over a year from now, the NVIDIAwells would would already be yesterday's news so obviously you know they want the newest
next gen innovation and they walked away from the site which i think makes sense you don't want to
be mixing generations at the same campus you want the absolute latest with that vera rubin which is
already in full production it's going to be cranking out later this year.
And its performance just makes the Blackwells look slow.
So that's a clear driver right now.
You're getting 10x more efficiency, fewer GPUs.
And they're basically, OpenAI is basically saying,
like, look, we'll wait, you know,
and build some fresher sites for Rubin instead of settling,
which I don't think that that's a demand slowdown. I think it's more so hyper growth, right? They're going to be developing quite a few sites across multiple states because they can't get enough of the silicon fast enough.
And I guess I take back what I said 10 seconds ago because then a week after doing that this month they announced that they're going to be
actually allocating computing and capital to renting
more racks and servers and sites and energy
from different cloud providers rather than building their own
because they just can't wait. And then they had a couple of different
changes as far as leadership and just direction because they just can't wait. And then they had a couple of different changes
as far as leadership and just direction
because they're really targeting that enterprise growth,
dropping Sora, dropping all the BS
just to focus on what matters.
And I think it's just that race with Anthropic.
And then on top of that, they're not alone.
Whether or not you like a stock or are invested in a stock,
Meta just locked up some, a pretty large
infrastructure deal last week or the week before with, with the Nebius Nubius, right? 27 billion,
12 dedicated to just like immediate capacity across multiple locations. When I say immediate,
I mean, just not an expansion option and then another 15 billion in, in optional compute. So
they're, they're, they're saying, again, we need to scale locked in. The roadmap's exploding. And the whole industry is really sort of sprinting for that power. And saw the same
thing yesterday with Cypher Mining, Cypher Digital now, the pure pivot from Bitcoin mining to AI and
compute. They just got their third major hyperscale lease. It's like a 15-year deal. I'm not
sure who it's with. But nonetheless, they're all rebranding and divesting old mining assets
and really going all in on this purpose-built AI data center, this computing build.
The one thing that, though, and I guess this would be a good question for O'Hare,
being I've actually never spoken with you or we've never met before,
but just from listening on this space, I take it that you're, you manage funds or you do
something with, with managing quite a decent amount of capital and other people's money.
So clearly I would say that, um, you probably know better than anyone on this panel right
now, what's going on with, with private credit and just that crunch, Apollo,
Blackstone, Blue Owl, they're all really getting crushed recently, some 40 to 65% down.
We're seeing a lot of the redemptions being capped at near 5%. So clearly there's tighter
private credit conditions. I'm not sure how, how too well versed you are within those, the AI infrastructure sector, those plays right now, but obviously, you know, there's a, there's
a sheer, given that sheer capital intensity of this AI infrastructure, these data centers,
you know, I'm wondering just how much of a risk and and anyone else can feel free to chime in.
This is just something that I've been pondering lately, is just how much of that financing risk is going to become a limiting factor?
It's such a high capital intensive environment.
I guess the two questions is like, one, how much of a limiting factor is that? And two, you know,
there's always going to be winners and losers, right. And, and any sector,
any business, any, anything in life. And, you know,
do you see just what's happening right now in private credit being that real,
I guess, like, well, here's the,
I would give you a kind of a big picture 50,000 foot view answer. And that
would be no one really knows. Because again, private credit, the word private, right, you got
to take that into consideration. These are not publicly available, you know, loans, you know, this information is, you know, held
close to the best by all the firms that are involved.
And there's thousands of them.
Now, the largest firms, you know, you think of the KKRs, the Blackstones, Apollos, all
of those are publicly traded.
So you can get an idea of kind of where we are by just looking simply at what investors
are looking at and what they're paying for these stocks. And if you look at those three,
I just mentioned, they're down anywhere from 25 to 30% just this year, year to date. And so
that tells you that there's an awful lot of angst in the market because presumably these are the
largest, right? So if the largest players are down 30%,
what does that mean for like the mid-tier and smaller players, right?
They're probably struggling a lot more.
So my sense is we don't really know how this is going to play out.
There's an old saying, where there's smoke, there's fire.
We certainly look at these things in the course of, you know,
our daily affairs, weekly, quarterly affairs. I mean, we do look at these things in the course of our daily affairs, weekly, quarterly affairs.
I mean, we do look at them. I've been very vocal over the last few years on our spaces and several
here in this particular room over the last few months that I would stay away from financials,
period. We don't have any exposure to financials other than to say,
you know, and, you know, there are a lot of people pounding the table still today that financials are a place to be, you know, that, you know, there's still a great place.
There's some growth, a lot of – you know, there's some dividends.
I mean, the reality is financials by and large are a black box.
They're just a black box.
Whether you go from the very big money center banks, you know, the JP Morgan's, the, you know,
the Wells Fargo's, BFAs, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley,
which are now banks as well,
all the way down the cap structure
to the very small and private.
And so it's really hard to know
what is really going on behind the scenes.
Suffice to say that it's not good.
How bad it'll get is anybody's guess,
but, you know, it's certainly not good.
I mean, yield spreads are getting wider.
They're still very tight from a historical perspective, but they are getting wider.
That's an indication that people just are stepping away, right?
The bid is kind of going away a little bit.
But, you know, I don't want to be alarmist and say, oh, it's the end of the world.
It's, you know, We're going to crash.
It's really hard to say.
Then you got to look into,
this calculus is very complicated
because then again, as I said earlier,
you have something like $10 trillion
that the Fed is going to have to refinance,
or the Fed, the Treasury,
the US government's going to have to refinance
over the next year.
That's going to put, you know, kind of a monkey wrench into the mix because you have a lot of, you know, you're going to have a lot of parties vying for that capital,
right? Think about it. So when you're refinancing debt, whether you're a mortgage holder, you know,
for a house or you're, you know, the treasury or your corporation or your municipality,
and you're looking to refinance debt, because quite frankly, no debt is getting repaid.
You know, very few, very, very few actually pay off debt. It just gets rolled and refinanced. And
if you have a higher yield that they're demanding, in other words, the cost of capital, the cost of
money goes up. That's not a good thing. And that's what interest rates are.
Think about interest rates as the cost of money, the cost of doing business. Now, the Fed can lower
the overnight rate. They didn't this time around. They kept rates the same, but everybody was
convinced earlier this year, we're going to have multiple rate cuts imminently. And of course,
we haven't had any. And the dot plots now are indicating
that we're probably not going to have any.
Maybe there's one, you know,
but I think it's going to be really hard.
So again, I often talk about this collage.
Think about a collage.
The more pixels you have in this collage,
the clearer the picture.
When you only have a few pixels,
it's very hard to make out what the picture is.
But the more information you have, the more these When you only have a few pixels, it's very hard to make out what the picture is. But the more information you have,
the more these pixels you fill in
with this information,
information pixels, if you will,
the clearer the picture.
So what we try to do is fill it out
as much as we can,
as complete as we can,
to be able to understand at least
what is going on and what might happen,
how all this kind of plays.
And that's a really hard thing to do, Sniper, even for professionals, right? Even for people
in the business, it's really, really difficult to do. We don't have a crystal ball. We can
surmise, you know, how things might play out, but, you know, oftentimes we're wrong. And what we try to do is minimize those things, those times
that we're wrong, um, as much as we can, you know? So, uh, I, that probably didn't answer
your question, but yes, the high yield is certainly a problem area. It's not going away.
It's getting worse. In my opinion, it's getting worse because now every day, seemingly you have
more and more investors looking to get their money back. And, you know, when you have more and more people wanting to get their money back and you know when you have
more and more people wanting to get their money back and fewer and fewer people wanting to put
money in that's not a combination for a robust uh you know healthy uh backdrop so i would be very
careful yeah yeah i i appreciate it man um i gotta hop off unfortunately uh but wabi thanks for having
me oh hair byare, appreciate it.
I just want to say to you guys, listen,
the most important thing you're going to hear today
is that the Sweet 16 starts in about an hour and 15, 20 minutes.
So if you can catch some of these games,
they start the tip-off is this afternoon,
4 o'clock or something Pacific time.
So Wabi, while you're nursing yourself at home, try to catch some NCAA basketball Sweet 16 the next two days.
By the end of the weekend, we're going to have Elite Eight.
So that's what you have to look forward to, guys.
Thanks, man.
Big Cheds.
What's up, man? What's up man what's up yo good room just enjoying listening
to the conversation um and all the dental advice appreciate it of course big cheds what happened to
big chonas man where's he been at he's kind of chilling he went in a different direction but
he's he's he's going strong yeah i haven't i remember you guys were doing spaces like at the bear market bottom man
yeah we i mean he was kind of um even in the game before me too and in many ways and so you know
we're still good friends but uh he's doing his thing that's what's up man yeah what are your
thoughts on this price action for stocks for stocks um I think it's frustrating
because it's such a headline sensitive environment and um I'm nowhere near smart enough to like
understand the news right now I mean I don't know if you are but like none of this makes any sense
to me I'm not quite sure I'm just kind of waiting um like for major volatility you know like when
you have these kind of minor like bounces that
keep retracing and dumps that keep retracing, I'm kind of waiting for like a big shakeout day when
things get reset and like a new trend gets started, you know, for the most part. But I'm doing other
stuff too. But just generally, I don't really understand what the heck's going on, man. Do you?
what the heck's going on man do you I would say it's a ticker pickers market
man mm-hmm yeah it's something more like it's conviction is Lucy held right Yeah. You kind of want to wait for SPX and Qs to actually go into that.
I mean, they're rolling over.
I mean, like the SPY, right?
Those are all like rollover, like rounding top type structure.
You know, there's a lot of stuff that's like potentially early stage.
It's like Microsoft, right?
Like potentially first closed below the weekly 200 since like i don't
2000 whatever 13 or something and the last time it did this after an uptrend it went sideways for 12
years so there's definitely some potential like major trend changes in some of these
other uptrends that have like driven the market um and combine that with all the uncertainty right
now i don't know man but uh like you don. But you also don't want to be totally scared
and do nothing, too.
I think any thesis is fine
as long as you manage it here
and you don't go too heavy
because the market can change fast, too, right now.
Yeah, usually, what was it?
Breaking the 200 weekly, you said?
Yeah, Microsoft, pull it up, weekly.
Look at the Microsoft Twitter weekly.
Dude, look at that, right?
Isn't that like where we bottomed in 22?
Right around those levels?
Just a little bit above, yeah.
And that back then was like the first touch in like 10 years.
So it's kind of a sign of a weakening long-term trend.
You can look at for a visual sense of momentum,
the price distance to like,
and the slope of like an MA 200,
which is, you know, the trend in classical charting.
And usually that first tag,
especially like when there's like major velocity beforehand,
you're going to get a bounce.
It's now we're in that second tag territory
and now potentially closing below.
So, I mean, it's undoubtedly weakened trend.
It's just a question of like, is it sideways down for a little bit, right?
Because these things are obviously going to be higher in, like, 10 years.
But, you know, is it like a very long kind of just waiting game in some of these?
You know what I'm saying?
Evan, what are you saying, man?
I know that's something that you've been paying attention to, the indices.
Oh, yeah. I mean, it's, well, the first thing, I mean, we're hitting a big point, right?
You know, if you look at triple Qs around 577, you know, where we are is a pretty big point.
I mean, we didn't make a, I don't think we made a lower low officially yet.
Came close. So, I mean, it doesn't look good, you know, from a technical perspective.
It probably looks like more downside. I think the biggest thing for, you know, the triple't look good, you know, from a technical perspective. It probably looks like more downside.
I think the biggest thing for, you know, the triple Qs is probably the peaks from December 2024 and February 2025.
And usually price likes to, you know, it's kind of more basic TA even.
Just price likes to go back to those peaks a lot of times.
And that would be right around like 537, because you've never really tested and proven
those areas. Like, and I think that, you know, in all likelihood, you probably will hit those areas,
you know, by like May or June, somewhere, somewhere of that nature. And then when you
kind of keep those, if you can keep those, and I think if you, if you don't keep those,
then we could talk about all the doomsday crap, you know, recessions and all that.
I'm still on the fence of the more optimistic route that we're going to dodge, you know, recession and Trump will, you know, I wouldn't
bet against Trump, you know what I mean? I mean, who knows, but I would, I think, you know, Iran
that ends, you know, probably within two months when that ends could be potentially a good kind
of buying catalyst. In addition, when Kevin Warsh is in those, those things could be good,
kind of buying catalysts that in terms of Bitcoin. I mean, I don't know if Bitcoin necessarily has to make a
lower low with the NASDAQ and that would just be, you know, that correction I mentioned would just
be another 6% down for the NASDAQ. So, I mean, NASDAQ going down another 6% from where we are
right now, you know, okay, maybe Bitcoin goes down 10%, 12%. That's still not a lower low.
That's just a retest of around 60K,
which is a big area.
I mean, I could be being too optimistic.
I mean, there's definitely,
like your momentum signs are kind of struggling,
like on your two week.
Your two week was looking more like we bought them.
Now it's struggling, man.
I mean, it may be okay as long as you can hold 60K.
I would keep more of an optimistic route,
but I would argue if you lose kind of the previous
you know low then we're probably headed to you know 50 to 48k those areas which would in all
likelihood you know how this works i mean every time you make a lower low and you you know crash
farther that that's more likely that that's the low of the bear market so if that does happen then
that would you know more likely be the low especially if it happens around may or june
which would that would be you know basically if you don't count FTX that was the bottom in 2022.
I still would keep a slight favorite for the bottom being the bottom being already in but
you know you're on thin ice if you're gonna come back to 60k which I think you are we didn't
actually that's a good point on Microsoft the 200 weekly SMA on Bitcoin you didn't quite hit it yet
I think it's very likely you will hit it.
But fortunately, probably by the time you do hit it,
it'll be above 60K unless you hit it really soon.
But yeah, I mean, things look pretty weak.
They don't look that great.
You know what, though?
Evan, let me just jump in here just for one sec.
One thing, I love what I'm hearing here,
but I would just caution you guys.
Remember, Bitcoin was down running into this, right?
So Bitcoin was already down like 40% or something coming into this.
So the NASDAQ as of today is down like 8%.
One of the reasons I think Bitcoin specifically has held up so well
is because it was already down so much.
So my point is that if we go, if people believe,
and this happens to come to fruition, and the market does sell off into the spring, and we get
like a S&P 500 that comes off from this level of like, call it 6,500, you know, and we get to say
a level of, you know, 62-ish, 63-ish, you know, if we have a
continuation here and we get down to about that 10%, Bitcoin's probably going to take a nosedive.
So I think Bitcoin right now, crypto at large, but specifically Bitcoin, I think it's playing
a wait-and-see game here, the people that are in Bitcoin. And I'm not talking about the diehard,
you know, you have to remember, there are different factions of are in Bitcoin um and I'm not talking about the diehard you know you have to remember there are different factions of people in Bitcoin I'm not talking about the Bitcoiners
I'm talking about the people that are using Bitcoin as a trading tool right as a way to play
risk on risk off and I think those people will largely pull their bids and maybe even go short
um if we were to get a you know a steeper drawdown in the overall market in equities. So I would just be prepared for that.
If we don't, if we get a resumption in the upward trend in equities, I think Bitcoin
might have a pretty significant rally from here. Can I just jump in? That's a great commentary.
If I could add to that what you said, I think Bitcoin also, if you look at just from a demand
standpoint, it's testing areas that in 2021 2022 and late 2024
showed that there was demand and support right we're essentially testing a 38 week range from
the end of 2024 right so it's just like you're not going to knife through that logically um queues
has different structures so i'll just caution the one-to-one because queues had a little more air
and a little more to give back i think you you could see Qs drop and Bitcoin drop less, perhaps,
just because it's got this deep consolidation area it's working through.
Yeah, that's fair. Yeah, I think that's fair.
And again, given where Bitcoin's already come off, right?
It's had a significant correction already.
So you're right. I think I'm you know, I'm not calling for,
you know, an Armageddon scenario, another 40% lower from here, although, you know, anything's
possible. I mean, this environment is really a unique environment. But like I said, I think,
and you're right to point out the difference here, you know, NASDAQ or Q's versus say the SPY,
there's certainly big differences with those two indices.
But the main constituents are large cap growth stocks
that are going to drive the action.
But anyway, I would be cautious here.
This is kind of what I call no man's land.
I use this analogy of like brackish water.
If any of you live by the coast
or near the ocean,
where you have freshwater rivers flowing into the deltas, like in the Bay Area here.
You have saltwater meeting freshwater.
And, you know, when you're in saltwater, you know you're in saltwater.
When you're in freshwater, you know you're in freshwater.
But then when you get into brackish water, it's a mix of both.
So that ecosystem is very much different than the one it comes from.
And so I think right now we're kind of in that brackish ecosystem where it's really hard to know which way it's going to flow.
And so this is why I think it's so complicated.
If I held a gun to your head, Bitcoin or S&P 500,
which one do you pick right now?
For what, long or short?
Long, to buy, just to buy on spot, which one would you pick?
Just curious.
That's a good question.
Short term, like if I was trading, I'd probably, you know, I would be,
you know, look, gun to the head, I'd probably be long, more long Bitcoin here than long S&P.
But with a very quick stop, you know, that's kind of my take here. I want to be more constructive
than less. But that's, you know, again I caveat it by saying I'm not suggesting anybody go long Bitcoin here,
but if you're talking over the next several weeks, I would be more constructive.
That's really interesting.
I was looking at them.
I was trying to decide what I would answer, and I don't know,
but I would just add in to add to that.
SPY actually still holds its weekly 50, so it's a stronger trend.
Correct. And that's because of the constituents of the index right yeah you have a lot yeah yeah yeah quite a few
more uh companies in the smp 500 that represent say some of the less uh uh volatile uh sectors
like energy for instance or consumer staples financial financials, things like that. So those are acting better than growth, than the tech growth names.
What do you think about the XBI?
What are your thoughts on that?
I don't know.
I mean, it's, you know, it's hard to say.
I mean, I know you don't, that's not a good answer,
but it's just, it's been sideways for, you know, months and months and months.
It's hard to say which way it's going to resolve up or down.
My inclination is, you know, my inclination is probably down just because it's had a massive run.
Look, there are certain areas of that index, certain components we like.
We're long some names that are biotech related and, you know, not necessarily pharma, but more biotech.
And we like that space.
But my only concern is that if we get a risk off environment and we get a higher tenure
continuing to get a higher tenure and those yields blow out and we get a widening of that
risk premium, I think it's going to make it harder for these companies.
So that's and by the way, the market will suss that out early and I think it's going to make it harder for these companies. So that's, and by the way, the market will suss that out early. And I think it'll sell on any kind of indication that that,
that that's going to take place. So I like it. I like certain idiosyncratic names in it, but
here it's had such a massive move, as you guys know from last summer that,
you know, I would be kind of, you know, it's kind of like, you know, no man's land here.
You can make a case either way. You can make a case that this thing could have, you know, it's kind of like, you know, no man's land here. You can make a case either way. You can make a case that this thing could have, you know, some more room to run,
or you can make a very, I can make a really easy case that we're going to see,
you know, what might turn out to be a significant correction,
you know, in some of these, some of these.
Remember, XBI is risk, right?
I mean, that's got risk written all over it, right?
This is the higher end of that risk spectrum.
Yeah, I've never even looked at the XBI.
It probably could keep outperforming the SPY for a little bit longer,
but you're on thin ice there.
That's tough.
I know what you mean.
But again, the important thing to keep in mind with these names
is it's really, these trade really, you know,
this particular index
is really kind of high beta so it's going to trade you know really close with you know some
of the things I just mentioned you know uh and look if yield if if you have compression if you
have that instead of widening you you have compression in in the high yield spread uh it
it would signify that there might be a resumption in the upward
trend in some of these companies and sectors that rely on that, which is, you know, XBI
is a good representation of that in my mind.
But again, even if it were to go down as an index, there are certain names in within that
ecosystem that are really, really good that we've done some, you know, some work on over
the last few years that make a lot of sense to own, regardless of what happens, you know,
you know, in the short run here.
So it's an interesting one.
Was that Cheds that pointed that out at XBI?
Yeah, that was big Cheds, man.
Yeah, so yeah, I don't know.
I like it, but I would be,
I wouldn't be chasing it.
Cheds, I would say this.
I would, if I didn't own it running into,
coming into this,
I would not be like chasing it here. I wouldn't be
necessarily putting a big position on Rayer.
I don't know if you talked about it earlier, but
would you be chasing XLE right now?
I'm up like 30% on that.
Well, XLE is very similar. I mean,
XLE, you know, you got
that's at a massive, massive,
massive outperformance. It's up 50%
or something. I mean, it's massive on the news of
the war in Iran for obvious reasons, right? But as Mike and I talked about a little
earlier in the space, it still represents a very small fraction of the overall S&P 500 as a sector.
And so there's still a tremendous amount of opportunity over the next few years.
But the problem is, and somebody, one of you guys
said this earlier, hey, man, you may have to wait 10 years. Let me tell you something, guys.
99.9% of you guys in here aren't going to hold anything for 10 years. Okay. Now, if you're
running money professionally, you know, if you're running money like long, like a long portfolio,
where your task is to own investments over the long run,
you might own something for 10 years.
I can tell you there are just a handful of things that we've owned that long.
Now, we do tend to own stocks.
Our turnover is very low.
It's less than 20% right now, the portfolio turnover.
But that doesn't mean that we own something for 10 years.
So when I hear comments like,
hey, man, you're going to have to hold that for 10 years,
I kind of chuckle a little bit
because it's easy to say it's very hard in practice to do
to hold something for that amount of time,
especially for the audience here, right?
Most people, what's gonna happen
is you buy something like XLE here at $60, $61
and you have a hiccup down to 45 and people bail, right? They just,
they just can't stomach the drawdown. Like, oh my God, I'm down 25 for 30%. I'm out. You know,
I'm moving on to the next hot dot. That's the MO for most people, for most investors are chasing,
they're always chasing. And so very few people have the stomach to hold something for a prolonged
period, like 10 years. You know, one of the reasons you see extreme, you know, wealth being created, that Elon Musk is a good
example. Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg is those guys can't sell their stock. So they, and even though
like, you know, a great example would be Jeff Bezos, right? I mean, Bezos, you know, over the
years has sold stock, but the large, you know, the overwhelming part of his
net worth has always been Amazon stock, right? He was an integral part in that company's,
you know, you know, success. And so he wasn't able to just unload his stock when the stock was down
95% during the dot-com crash. Imagine if he had been able to sell all of his stock,
like if he was just an average dude, you know, with a big chunk of Amazon and that blew out of it, right? So the fact that
he couldn't sell because he's locked up, right? He's an executive. He's got certain windows he
can sell. And by the way, it doesn't look good when you're an insider selling big chunks of stock.
So by definition, he had to be a holder through the ups and the downs. And over time, that
volatility kind of,
you know, smoothed out and the company's made, you know, great success in all the things that it's done. And he's one of the richest people in the world. The vast majority of people don't have
that luxury, right? They're going to panic. They're going to be down 20% and sell. And they're going
to move on to the next thing that's moved. And of course, that thing is probably going to correct
and they're going to be down. So you're always chasing your tail as an individual investor,
which is the sad part.
You know, people are reactionary.
They're not proactive, they're reactive.
And that's the unfortunate.
As an investor, you have to be proactive.
Yeah, I mean, I think it makes sense with XLE.
Like, I mean, I'm up like 30% on it.
So like, I think it makes sense.
Like, give it a couple months, wait for some like momentum.
Like if you're long and you've had,
listen, Evan, right?
Is that, okay.
So Evan, if you're long
and you've made a nice return in XLE,
there's no reason to bail.
You know, if it represents a significant part
of your overall portfolio,
you know, it doesn't hurt to trim.
But if it doesn't, then, you know, stay
the course. I mean, there's nothing wrong with, look, if your intention is really truly as an
investor, as opposed to a trader trying to time it, then stick with it, you know, and yes, it'll
go up, it'll go down. But over time, I think energy is a great place to be. XLE has got a lot
of the best companies within that space. You may want to diversify into some other areas
because remember, even within energy,
there's a lot of subsectors.
You know, you have upstream players,
you've got midstream players, you've got downstream players.
There's all kinds of different moving parts within energy.
And by the way, when one part of energy is working,
another part might not be working.
And so you might own upstream guys that aren't working,
but, you know, the midstream or downstream guys are working in spades and vice versa.
So, you know, there's a lot of that as well that you need to be aware of, you know.
Yeah, I mean, it's interesting to look at the parallels of like 2022, you know what I mean,
looking at how well that did. And then then like because we're talking about alternative investments and obviously not through too many of them have
done too well against the spy you know obviously this year that's like been the biggest one i mean
gold is 2022 people remember because yeah people remember 2022 because you know massive gains were
had in energy but remember very few people actually got in on those gains, right? Most people got in late and chased it, right?
And then, by the way, you know, when it started working the other way, you know, they bailed, right?
And so no one really has a stomach to go.
Well, yeah, I just want to, like, I mean, yeah, obviously most people always screw up.
But, like, there are a lot of people I know that went long on energy the moment that Biden won.
You know what I mean?
Like, there were, like, that's always the case like the average person's always gonna lose
but there were a good amount of people that did you know they were looking at the fundamentals
when biden was winning and they thought it was a good kind of trade but yeah well actually it's
always been the case that energies perform better under republicans than democrats you know but
anyway i mean Trump's actually,
I'm not a fan of Trump.
I've been a Republican in my life.
I voted Republican most of my life.
I'm not a fan of this administration.
Having said that, I think the Republican, you know,
the Republican Party, energy has done quite well
under the Republican Party.
It's done well under the Democrats as well,
just in a different way.
But, you know, my point is I'm not,
I don't really care who's in, whether it's Republican or Democrat, it really doesn't
move the needle for me as much. I think what really moved the needle was ESG. And I talked
about this in many, many spaces over the last two, three years. I don't know how long you've been
around my spaces, my comments, but, you know, ESG was really driving the ship. It wasn't the Democrats
or the Republicans necessarily. It was really the ESG policies that were put in place about 15 years
ago in earnest, really the acceleration of ESG and then the subsequent DEI policies and stuff
like that. But really, ESG was really the nail in the coffin for a lot of energy, especially,
you know, hydrocarbon energy. You know, not only hydro, but nuclear, coal,
certainly coal, and even to some extent, hydro. Because, you know, the policies for ESG were
really green energy, right? It was solar, it was wind, it was things like that, that really take
a tremendous amount of investment over a long period of time to actually pay off. I'm not opposed to green
energy. I'm just, you know, I've always been of the, I think we need all forms of energy,
whether it's green energy or fossil fuel energy, you know, but what ESG did is ESG tried to turn,
you know, turn that on a dime. And that really was the death nail for many years for,
you know, for hydrocarbon energy, coal and gas and oil. But that's largely
behind us. The peak ESG was a couple of years ago. In fact, peak ESG was, to your point, 2022 was
kind of the pivot, I would say, for energy. And it was a pivot because it was the death basically of ESG, the ESG mandates. And so
I think over the next, and again, it's like a big ship. It's hard to move. You can't just turn it on
a dime. It'll take many, many years for that to develop. And we're seeing, we're witnessing that
now. So this is one of the reasons why I say it's a great time to be in energy as an investor for the long run.
With the idea that it's not going to be linear returns,
don't panic when things go against you.
Be aware that that can and most certainly will happen
and be prepared to make new investments if that does happen.
Because as an investor, you want to buy low and
sell high right that's the whole idea right but people just you know it's easy to say that it's
it's really hard to actually do that in practice
yeah i mean it takes people a while that's the thing too and i mean everyone always says to dca
into stuff but i i mean from anecdotal experience, I feel like very, very, very,
very, very few people actually have the discipline to DCA anything. Like it's usually just lump sum
being put in, you know what I mean? Well, that's exactly right. And I think
the DCA part of it is like for most people, it's either their IRA once a year, you know,
or a couple of times a year, maybe four times every quarter,
whatever you have it set up as, or your 401k, right? For the vast majority of Americans,
your DCA is really your 401k, because, you know, it's set up automatically through your employer.
So you're putting, you know, a few hundred bucks a month, few thousand bucks a month
in there. And that's growing over time. So you don't really think about it, right? You might do
an essay allocation change once a year, you know, if that. So the reality is most people don't, you know, don't really think
about that. You're right. When it comes to like their taxable or after-tax dollars that they're
investing, if you're saving and you should be, they're doing lump sum. They're like trying to
time the market, right? Hey, I'm going to get into this here because it's moved a lot. XLE is probably a really good example of that. People look at the
chart and go, ooh, this is something that's been working. Maybe I should jump in. You jump in here,
let's say it's 61 and a half. And for like a week or two, it does well. It goes to 65, 70.
And then you look at it a month and a half later and it's down to 50 and you panic and you sell
only to see it up to 80 a year and a half from now.
You know what I mean?
So that's kind of the, you know, the mentality is, you know, people will ride something as well as it's working, as long as it's working.
But then the minute it's not, then they just second guess their thesis.
And all of a sudden that thesis is thrown out the window and, you know, they're out.
You know, no one likes to see, you know, no one likes to see losses, you know.
And so people, when they see losses, they have a very weak stomach for losses, you know.
By the way, you know, one of the things about Mike, guys like Mike or guys like me, you know,
Mike, you know, talks about being a value investor.
And as a value investor, you have to have a stomach for losses.
As long as those losses are permanent, right?
Because there's a difference.
If you have interim losses while you're building a position, while you're investing in a particular space, it's okay to have losses.
We're okay with losses.
As long as they're not permanent losses.
So there's a big difference in that.
Yeah, well, I think, too, if you're like, I mean, let's be real.
Stuff that's smaller market cap, I would say, I mean, it is value investing,
but it's more of like a venture capitalist view, too,
because you know that some of the stuff you buy ain't going to, like, some of the stuff's going to go to.
I would say value investing necessarily doesn't mean market cap size,
because you can have growth stocks in small cap or micro cap.
In fact, I would say that the vast majority of small cap stocks are growth by nature. They're
growthier companies that are growing. They're not necessarily, you know, value oriented. Now,
the companies that are value are the ones that used to be large or mid cap that are, say,
large cap companies that for one reason or another drop on various,
you know, for various reasons and they become kind of mid or small cap stocks.
Those tend to be more value oriented than straight up value, you know, small cap stocks
that are just kind of growing, you know.
So there's a distinction to be made, I think, between the two.
Not all small cap stocks are value is what I'm saying here.
Right?
Just like... Yeah.
So be careful when you...
Because I think a lot of people
look at small caps and go,
oh, that must mean value.
They're small, they're value.
Whereas...
Because they differentiate...
They draw the line where
a company that's a trillion dollar market cap
is growth versus a company
that's a $2 billion market cap,
that must be value.
Well, that $2 billion market cap company might be actually way more expensive than that one trillion dollar market
cap company you follow you know so that's yeah yeah yeah yeah I know what you I mean obviously
the smaller the market cap the most light more likely it is to bleed against the S&P 500 we
all know that the majority of stocks don't outperform the S&P 500 at least not every year
I mean I think the thing
too, for the average person, it's like, you got to have kind of a plan, you know, what's my
validation point. And I think that, you know, let's say you went long, you know, blindly on
XLE right now, and it didn't work out too well. Like, you know, am I going to cash out and just
convert to cash? Or am I going to convert to something else like the S&P 500? You know,
you kind of have to have a plan like that because I think the number one goal
for most people obviously is to outperform the S&P 500, which is, you know, a lot harder
to do than most people realize.
So if you're just buying, you know, something and trying to write it up and then wait till
the momentum shifts against the S&P 500, then get out of it and take some profits back to
the S&P 500, that makes a lot more sense than cashing out or panic selling when it's down,
just holding cash and washing everything back up.
Go ahead.
I would add, Evan, that you have to understand or you have to know why you're buying
XLE or why you're in it.
What is the reason?
What is the thesis of owning it right here, right now?
And if you can't come up with a cohesive, well thought out kind of reason
why you want to own it here after this big run, then you probably shouldn't own it. So in other
words, the thesis has to be constructive going forward. Because remember, we're not looking
through the rear view mirror here of what's happened. We have to be looking at the windshield,
what's going to happen or what could potentially happen, right? No one knows, but you have to have a thesis going forward, not looking backward.
And I think that's where people make a mistake.
They look at the charts and they see a big move, but they don't have a constructive,
you know, thesis as to why that should continue over, you know, the medium to long term.
And then again, if you don't have that constructive thesis,
then the minute that it gives back 10, 15, 20%, most people bail and are out
because they don't understand why they own it to begin with. Yeah. And then people make the
opposite mistake. They just try to shore everything that pumps, you know what I mean? That works even
worse usually. Yeah. Like the goal, man, if you look at people with gold and silver. Stay away
from pumps. Yeah. Stay away from pumps. Again, it's good to, you know, there's nothing wrong with, you know,
being a momentum, you know,
a trend follower, if you will, right?
There's a place in time for every investor,
growth value, you know, momentum guys,
you know, trend followers, what have you.
It's just, you need to know that,
you know, you need to know which one you are.
Okay. If you don't know which one you are, then that's really hard for you to make, you know,
you know, you know, you know, you know, a successful endeavor going, you know, in the long run. Yeah,
people get lucky, you get into something because someone told you, you heard it on a space,
I bought it, went up a lot. And okay, I'm going to repeat that process.
Well, it's unlikely that that's a repeatable process, right?
Just buying something because it's going up
or buying something because that's the narrative today.
The narrative changes and all of a sudden,
you know, it's down significantly.
And, you know, you put, you know,
some of your money in it.
Now you're sitting on a loss going,
what do I do now?
Because you don't have a thesis to begin with.
You don't really know why you own it.
You know?
Yeah, it's pretty blind.
Yeah.
Well, guys, I think this is a...
Go ahead, Evan.
Oh, no, go ahead, Wabi.
Yeah, guys, I think this is a great time to wrap up.
So, guys, if you've been enjoying the show, if you've been enjoying the stream for over the last three hours and you've enjoyed what the speakers have said, if you enjoyed what I've said, shout out to Evan O'Hare, Mike, David, Small Cap Sniper, and everybody else who spoke today.
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rest of your day bye Bye-bye, guys. Take care. Peace out. applause
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applause Thank you. If you need a friend
Don't look to a stranger
You know when the end
I'll always be there
And when you're in doubt
And when you're in danger, and when you're in danger, take a look on the room around, and I'll be there.
I'm sorry, but I'm just thinking of the light, just sleeping around inside.
I know they don't sound the way I'm to be But every way around the world I make it
I'm so glad you're here
I know that you are
When your day is true
I know that you tell
You know what to do.
Don't always be there.
Sometimes you cry, shout.
It's not what you tell them.
These wishes come out.
They don't cry too bad.
I'm sorry but I'm just thinking I'm gonna ride my ride.
I know they don't sound the way I planned to be.
But if you're waiting around the wild,
I'll let you fall in the eyes of my eyes.
I promise you.
I'm sorry, but I've been thinking of the rhinos to say.
I know they don't sound the way I planned them to be.
And if I had to walk the world, then they could walk me.
I promise you.
