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Market Talk- HUGE CRYPTO CRASH! WHAT HAPPENED?! BOTTOM SOON!?
Recorded: June 13, 2025 Duration: 1:31:01Space Recording
Short Summary
Crypto markets are experiencing significant volatility, with discussions highlighting potential growth opportunities driven by geopolitical events, institutional interest, and bullish market trends. Key resistance levels for Bitcoin and altcoins are being closely monitored as traders anticipate a potential breakout.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Two words to life. Oh, there is so much cheesecake. It seems our freedom's over.
Can't let's see how it doesn't come to this day.
Is it ease versus risk?
Or the man against death?
Can't eat this cheesecake.
I'm young.
It's burning hot.
Just make it to the end. Oh I'll keep my burning heart Oh, that's fine
And the world is cold There's no surrender
Though his body's head's cut
He's spirit by his death
Deep in our soul
A choir in the youth
Knows it's situation against you,
it's the paradise that passes the world.
It's the power of wheels,
in the heat of attack.
It's the passion that kills,
the victory is just on the ground.
It's the burning heart
Chicks me to burst
I'm just a little girl
I'm just a little girl
In the darkest night
I'm rising like a sky
In the burning heart
You must take me to the sky I music I'm not going to be a big fan. I'm not going to be a big fan. I'm not going to be a big fan.
I'm not going to be a big fan.
I'm not going to be a big fan.
I'm not going to be a big fan.
I'm not going to be a big fan.
I'm not going to be a big fan.
I'm not going to be a big fan.
I'm not going to be a big fan.
I'm not going to be a big fan.
I'm not going to be a big fan.
I'm not going to be a big fan. I'm not going to be a big fan. Dear ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to Market Talk brought to you by BecauseBitcoin.
Today, we have a plethora of things to talk about.
The volatility in this market that has ensued over the last 48 hours has been nothing short
Nothing short of remarkable.
of remarkable.
Things on chain are experiencing a quite hefty pullback, honestly.
And we do have a ton of headlines that have come out over the last 24 hours that, quite frankly, we've seen these headlines before.
We saw them multiple times throughout all of last year.
And for whatever reason, they always tend to happen shortly before entering a weekend.
We have the S&P down about 90 points since yesterday's close.
We have Hood on a bit of a pullback.
The Qs are also on a bit of a pullback. And quite frankly, just through these headlines alone, and we've seen over the last 18 months,
anytime these headlines come out in regards to some unfortunate conflict, you do end up having a nasty volatility event that ends up marking out the bottom.
Now, lower timeframe, things do look a bit shaky on BTC, ETH,
and specifically Seoul, man.
I've been saying this for some time,
but the weakness on Seoul has just been depressing, honestly.
It's trading like such a different asset,
but perhaps this is Seoul's first major cyclical correction, as Sol has been outperforming things like BTC and ETH since the FTX lows for about two years straight, with hardly any corrections.
You take a look at the Sol-BTC pair, it was basically up only from December of 2022 all the way to January of 2025, especially against other assets like
an Ethereum, right? But that's not so much the case now over the last couple of months.
ETH has shown remarkable strength since those lows from early April, actually pumped well over
100%. I think from bottom to peak, which was a couple of days ago,
ETH rallied like 125%, something like that, which is honestly insane. And you do see some
things on chain on base that have absolutely melted face. And even some assets on mainnet
that are a bit new that I believe are still under the radar,
but I'm going to keep that to the Discord fan. But nonetheless, guys, we have a ton of headlines
in regards to macro, in regards to war escalations and all that stuff. And, you know, it's never nice
to see these geopolitical conflicts escalate.
But the market runs on such a cog, on such a machine, on such a wheel that usually whenever
these escalations peak out, the market just V reverses.
And we've seen that happen last year in early July with Germany.
We saw that happen, I believe, in early or mid-April of last
year with the Middle East as well. And the vicious rallies that ensue after the market
digests all of this is absolutely insane. But you might be asking yourself, hey, like, why the hell are people selling meme coins or altcoins in regards
to some conflict that has nothing to do with crypto?
Well, that's just the way these markets work.
They're very volatile.
They always have these crazy knee-jerk reactions.
But if you just want to talk price action alone, it's often actually quite bullish if you have some bearish, choppy price action going into something like an FOMC,
which traditionally over the last couple of years has often marked inflection points for volatility to either the upside or the downside.
And, you know, a couple of months ago, many people were expecting the summertime to be quite
boring, no volatility, walk away and all that stuff. But the last couple of weeks have honestly
shown anything but that. You see stocks like hood absolutely mounting face, making high after high. You see the S&P every couple of trading sessions making fresh local highs.
So if we still end up seeing the S&P 500 going into price discovery, then of course,
you will see that sort of price action being reflective in the crypto market.
And me personally, in my belief, I think this summer is more akin to the summer of 2023.
And more than not. And I'm getting my words twisted here, guys. Wow. I don't know what the
hell's going on, man. Maybe I'm just I feel I feel normal now compared to how I was feeling last
week when I was like super sick. And now I just feel like
I have a lot of catching up to do in regards to talking about markets. But I think the price
actually that we're seeing right now is more reflective of 2023 and not so much 2024. And
if you guys were active at that time, we were actually nuking around this time as well, going into mid-June.
And then we eventually pumped out of the FOMC meeting that we had in late June, early July, and actually made a new year-to-date all-time high while things on-chain were doing quite well.
But on-chain didn't really have much of an adjustable market at that time i think the only things that
were actually active was eth mainnet and um dare i say it a little bit of arbitrum a little
i don't think it was that active i think there are only like a handful of tickers
that even did anything after uh Arbitrum token launched.
But, man, that's crazy, dude.
In 2023, people, including myself, thought that Arbitrum mainnet was going to be like some big game changer.
And it didn't really do much at all.
All these like ETHL2s were basically meaningless and are now made redundant with base.
But nonetheless, guys, I want to thank you all so much for tuning in.
That's kind of my opening spiel.
We have FOMC in five days.
I think all this stuff is a nothing burger.
We've seen it happen before.
So over the weekend, if you do see some wider flush on majors and a deeper pullback on your favorite on-chain tickers, I think it's time to bid, quite frankly.
At the very least, top up your positions a little bit, right?
But that's kind of my opening spiel, guys.
I want to thank you all so much.
Whether you're tuning in right now or you're listening to the recording welcome ladies and gentlemen to the
weekly wrap-up you guys are in for a treat you guys are about to tune in to
exclusive information not heard or seen in any other content platform welcome guys to today's urgent and emergency bitcoin and crypto and market
meeting featuring myself donnie and matt it's going to be an awesome show before we get started guys
if you guys can go ahead and show some love to the space. The best way to do that is by clicking the spaces tab.
You open up the X app and then right below, you'll see the spaces tab.
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Helps grow the show and all that stuff that we very very much like producing each and every day
throughout the week so guys welcome to the weekly wrap-up welcome back to market talk i'm your host
wabi and for the next 45 minutes to an hour we're gonna go ahead and bring you guys a cook sesh and as always as i like doing
on fridays i'll bring some of you guys up here so if you're interested in coming up to talk your book
see what you're seeing in the market you guys know i don't really like just q a i find that
quite boring but if you want to come up and talk your books you tell us what you're seeing in the
market hit that request button i'll bring you up probably like towards the end of the show as i usually do
but uh as always i'm gonna kick it off over to donnie and then we'll go down the panel from
there man so donnie what's going on man this is uh the pullback that we've been wanting to see
shortly before fomc people are taking what's going on way out of proportion,
man. But man, I'm welcoming this pullback, brother. I really am. But how are you doing?
How are you feeling, man? And what are your overall thoughts on the price actually leading
up to today, man? Quite the volatility across the board yeah super volatile thanks for opening up
the show again um yeah i didn't actually i wasn't really aware of kind of the geopolitical uh tension
like right before it happened and i ended up posting a post just kind of looking at it from
a technical perspective how the chart was shaping up and you know ever since that low we had at 100.7, the big liquidity flush, we've had
a very strong reversal and we broke.
I'll just actually post a chart so it's better.
Just give me one sec.
Yeah, just look at this post.
And then the prior post was quoted below.
But yeah, just hop on that first Bitcoin chart.
You can see from that low after, you know,
flushing out all that liquidity when people were expecting lower,
we got a super sharp reversal
and we actually broke market structure to bullish
on the daily timeframe,
which was, you know, a big sign to me
that potentially we're rotating back up to all-time highs.
We've got a bunch of untapped highs on the left there
that you've seen marked in green dollar signs.
Typically, when you break market structure to bullish, similar to the 74K low,
you get some sort of retest of a level below or another liquidity flush to basically put in your
higher low and continue this new shift of trend. So I had a level marked there around 106 point something. And then the
104k was kind of the lowest point where there was a ton of liquidity building up in that V reversal,
which we've actually now swept. So from a technical perspective, the job's done. And again,
I wasn't really aware of the geopolitical tensions or anything like that. It was kind of just
coming on the chart due to the sharp sell off prior prior to that. And so, yeah, now that we've cleaned it up, we're starting to reverse
a little bit from the bottom. And it's looking very similar to, if you see the next picture up
in that post, the fractal that I shared with Bitcoin against gold and then GlobalM2 in the blue line,
you can see that we're kind of at that same spot that I've circled in red
where gold had a little bit of a correction after a pretty steep rally from the bottom there.
And you kind of had the similar sort of setup there.
You get one big flush and then you put in a higher low and continue higher.
So Bitcoin does follow gold, lags liquidity.
So I think it's just as simple as that.
It's tricky when they pair these news headlines on top of the scary price action.
Makes you overthink stuff.
But again, if you're not some geopolitical expert or whatever, the chart is going to
tell you where we're going to go. And everything else
follows that. So I think if we cross 106.2, it's going to build the case for that gold fractal to
actually play out as you do carve out this higher low. And obviously above that red zone that I've
marked 108.4, the low is in. And as you can see, you've left liquidity above prior to this sharp down move
where you're not actually taking those highs if you look closely at those wicks you're not
deviating the high wiping the liquidity before the drop that would be a bit more scary because
that means that you know market makers are essentially not leaving untapped liquidity
for a reversal up there they're taking it to fill shorts and then pushing price down, right?
That's more of a scary drop. And it kind of indicates that they're wanting to send this chart
lower. So, you know, you've got three very highly liquid untapped highs resting above, which tells
you that eventually this chart is going to reverse. You don't know that timeframe. You watch these key
levels and the reclaims and you can start building the case for the low. But it's good that they're untapped. So we know that an
eventual rotation is coming. So chart looks really good, aside from those headlines and stuff. And
yeah, just waiting for this reversal. And just checking like the charts on TradingView right now,
I zoomed in in that gold and BTC fractal. It's so similar, right? It's very,
very, very close to being identical. I think BTC could spend some potential time below 106,
maybe just for like a few days. But if we want this up move to confirm itself, I would want that
to happen within the next like six days so it could happen any day
between these six days uh and again yeah those are the key levels for me 106.2 to start building
a case for the low and then obviously 108.4 you're going straight to a sharp new all-time high so
yeah i don't think there's anything too scary about this drop. At the absolute worst, you now have a range
that you could potentially form on BTC.
Let me just pull up with a chart.
From those highs that we went up to, 110.
Sorry, from the low of 100.
What did we hit?
100.5 or whatever,
to the high that we broke out into, 110.
You could potentially form a range from that low to this high
and deviate that 100.5 kind of as a worst case scenario
and build an accumulation, a sideways sort of chop
between those two levels before reversing.
But again, even that doesn't really make sense.
Prior to any of these news headlines from a technical perspective,
it's a very low probability outcome for me.
So that's not really something that I'm putting too much stock into.
But if you do lose these lows, it's still not over.
I don't think you'll go below 97.5.
I think you'll just chop above 100 and below 110
before you eventually break those highs.
Because again, that liquidity resting above is left there for a reason.
If they took those highs, then I would be worried. But the fact that they didn't,
just it's going to continue at some point soon. Hopefully sooner rather than later,
because we want to get this show rolling. It's been good seeing these bags pump.
And also one last thing is Ether and altcoins have actually been holding up insanely well on
this drop, especially like low cap alts and stuff. I'm surprised they haven't actually nuked that much. They have gone down,
but the prior drops we were getting on on-chain alts that are low caps, they were just getting
absolutely decimated with every drop. So again, that's more signal that this move to the downside
is probably nothing to worry about. If it was, you would see across the board massive wipeouts.
And again, that liquidity on the highs would have been taken for BTC
and it would have been much scarier.
So it looks all good to me.
Donnie, are you in front of the charts right now?
Are you at the desk?
Yeah.
Go ahead and pull up Bitcoin price action from March of 2023 all the way until July of 2023.
Now, check this out.
That wipeout that we had from $25K to $19K in March of 2023, I consider that similar to the low that we had back in early April. And if you look at when BTC made
that first year-to-date high at 30K and change of April of 2023, I think it's very similar to the
high that we made a couple of weeks ago in May. And if you look at maybe like total three from April of 23
to May of 23, it's kind of similar to the altcoin pump that we had coming out of that bottom in
April all the way up until like mid-May. And where I'm getting at is, if you notice in the
summertime in July of 23, we made a slightly marginal high. And that's kind of what I'm
eyeing for this summer, for Bitcoin to at least hit one more all-time high and for altcoins to have
another push, right? So, dude, I think this is is gonna be more like the summer of uh 2023 instead of the
summer of 24 the summer of last year was like so shitty to trade honestly unless you were in front
of your computer 24 7 but um i think we kind of have the same setup honestly and i think this f1c
is going to be something that propels us to the next expansionary leg, kind of like the one before in May, which we were discussing for some time.
I think the setup that we have now is way stronger than any other setup that we've had prior to this, whatever rally you're looking at, purely because of ETH's performance, right? That's giving you a
hint that altcoins are basically going to run on the next rally, especially if you break the
all-time high on BTC. Plus, you have the entire macro playbook finally aligning and you're on a
time limit of when these policymakers can actually start pushing their agenda, which is going to be
a very big risk-on signal, which brings in a lot of liquidity and volume and higher prices into all
risk assets. So we haven't had that basically this entire run. And specifically in crypto,
we haven't had this Bitcoin dominance start to give liquidity to alts. So I think if you do break
the high on BTC, you're going to see absolutely wild price action on altcoins.
I'm already seeing way too much strength.
And I can tell when you do start to take this liquidity to the upside and BTC breaks above 120,
it's literally going to be like a fire hose into a teacup in terms of liquidity into altcoins, I think.
What altcoins are you eyeing right now, man?
I personally think that all of them
will go up. Obviously, some will outperform.
That's just the nature of the market.
I'm very condensed into
Pepe derivatives, the
Fartcoin narrative, Sui,
and a few other meme coins.
And that's pretty much it, but
heavily, heavily condensed into those.
So yeah,
any sort of multiples from here will start to get pretty crazy for me. Pretty much, I'm near maxed out on the risk curve. I just have about 35% of my portfolio in SUI, which was a huge position
around $2.14. And that's it. I'm not trying to overcomplicate it. I know it's going to perform
better than BTC on this rally. So just going gonna hold that for as many multiples as i think it can juice
before i see exhaustion and then sell oh wow but yeah the fight coin narrative right now is
specifically looking super strong like even on this dip and bouncing back off it's looking better
than a lot of the other uh on-chain across the board, specifically based Fartcoin as well.
Back up to 33, I think it shot up to 42 from that low.
I think as soon as you cross 65 on this, it's literally going to go to 400 plus.
Donnie, and how are you seeing things like hype, man?
It's like the strongest out of the top 20.
The thing with these big caps same with like sui is even though i'm bullish on them as large caps if i don't get the premium entry i don't want it because
it's just not enough multiples uh for me which i know i can juice out on other coins that are just
going to perform when eth performs so if you didn't get in uh on suey
sorry on um hype at that low which we were eyeing up uh wabi i think some of you guys and bb got in
it was around nine dollars or whatever sub 10 sub 12 if you didn't get that i think the trade is
like pretty exhausted unless you're looking for like less multiples right but you know i i i
personally prefer to go a little bit higher out
on the risk curve when i see these old season triggers start to materialize just because
bidding low caps um in that environment is just such a free win like you can pull out 20 30 40 50
x in a position whereas hype now at 41 i don't know how many multiples you're going to get off that. I'd rather pick something higher risk, personally. Structurally, man, I think that thing looks like Solana.
Excuse me. Wow. I kind of choked up there a bit, but it reminds me a lot of Solana, dude. In the
summer of 21, just as it was breaking its prior all-time high of 50 bucks and then soul shot from 50 bucks to 200 in
less than a month man um yeah yeah but it definitely looks good the chart like for
continuation yeah and it's it's like far coin in a way where there are barely any exchanges
that have spot hype i think the only large exchange that actually has spot hype is q
coin um and i was actually looking at hype on chain like right before the show man and
bro i missed some clean runners bro um there was some token called liquid swap uh i think it's one of hyper liquid's only um like secondary dexes
and it shot from like three mil all the way to 100 i'm like damn dude i really slacked off um
but it happens man it happens but dude these uh on-chain markets for some of these l1s
they get really crazy at times dude um but for hype man honestly like i'm looking at hype uh to
reach within like at the very least 50 of soul's market cap and at the upper end flipping bnb which i think hype is very much capable of um
flipping bnb yeah bnb's market cap like 100 and that would you think flipping that this cycle
i think so i think so because the thing is like you see a lot of on-chain volume disappear, but then that volume goes on over to Hyperliquid.
So it tells me that the rotation that's been happening is people make money on-chain, and then they flip on over to Hyperliquid to just long majors or to long some shitcoin, right?
And there's a reason why we've seen hype outperform even tokens with way lesser of a market cap.
Like it outperformed Mog, it outperformed Brett, it outperformed many, many, many tickers that have lower market caps or even the same market caps of when Hype bottomed out at $9.
Outperformed Pepe.
It flipped Pepe, dude.
It flipped Pepe.
And that to me says, all right, so some normies understand Hyperliquid.
And quite frankly, when people talk about normies in retail, I genuinely think some people think retail are retards, which isn't the case.
They're underestimating newer people.
New people aren't just going to buy meme coins.
They're going to buy fundamentals as well and i think it provides a balance because when people bid l1 tokens it actually
brings money to the market rather than like these extractive kind of tokens where all right cool
like we see we saw ai right you saw goat run to like two bill but it was mostly extractive and that money left the ecosystem. It didn't stay within the ecosystem.
So those are kind of my thoughts, man, with that sort of narrative.
But go ahead, man.
I would just say the way that the market progresses is you obviously have these tokens that everyone's eyeing up like hype, the ones that are super sought after.
They lead the way, right?
But the trickle-down economics in crypto
always works out that these lead the market
and then the liquidity flows out as the multiples
or you kind of get this...
What's it called?
When something continues to go higher
and you basically lose further multiples.
Diminishing returns, that's what I call it.
Yeah, they start to have diminishing returns
and then you're just kind of like,
instead of holding this for another 50% or a double,
let me just rotate this into Pepe, for example.
And so though it may have done more multiples now off the lows,
does not mean it's going to do more multiples
if you're measuring from low to whatever highs they hit
in this bull wave to the upside.
That's kind of what I was trying to say.
So if you caught it early
and then you just rode this pump to like 42,
for example, me, I would be rotating out
into things that haven't moved as much
to just gain further multiples on that.
But that's just how I trade.
I trade very high risk and all that.
Yeah.
Speaking of high risk, man, like things I trade at way lesser of a market cap, man.
I'm so bullish on LaunchCoin, dude.
It's down like 50% from the highs.
down like 50% from the highs.
It rallied almost 3x off the lows.
It rallied almost 3x off the lows.
And honestly, like that next wave of speculation on Solana,
I don't think it's going to be another meme coin.
I think it has, I think it's probably going to be some newer narrative, man.
And I'm really hoping that this is like the next play on Sol.
is like the next play on soul dude it went to almost 400 mil man and of course that was when
Dude, it went to almost 400 mil, man.
like everything was rallying and if you look at most all coins if you look at pepe if you look at
sui basically everything outside of hype because even even four coin for the most part topped out
part topped out um in mid may most of the move uh from the low got exhausted in mid may and
you'll you understand why though right there's literally nothing else moved from the bottom
this thing's sticking out people who are in it and chasing it finally you know see the rest of
the market like heating up and they're like okay let me rotate out and that's what causes exhaustion
is what i'm trying to say we've seen it the entire cycle is if you have something leading
it's eventually going to stick out like a sore thumb and people will rotate out to get more
multiples elsewhere oh no no i i was i was mentioning um just like the move that launch
coin had where like you had the entire market basically be pve and you saw this new narrative and it started
just absolutely turbo ripping and then most of the alt market for the most part outside of eth
and hype topped out and of course we had that big correction so whenever we do have that next
explosive leg up man like i've got i've got my bets on this thing dude and i really hope it causes like
a the next wave of on-chain frenzy and man we've seen it before anytime you have these new narratives
pop up it brings so much money uh to the ecosystem that's not as extractive and it's more PVE than PVP. But yeah, with Hype Suite, it's really difficult for me to get out of my bias because I saw what happened with BNB.
And I remember just how viciously BNB outperformed the rest of the market.
We had that pullback in January of 2021, where Bitcoin pulled back from $40K down to $28K.
And BNB was one of the few altcoins that didn't get affected as nearly as much as the broader market.
And then as we entered February, as Bitcoin started to recover, bro, BNB goes from $60 all the way to $500 in a straight
candle in like two weeks, three weeks.
Now, I get that in 2021, it was like COVID stimulus and all that stuff.
But I just think that hype is one of those tokens that despite it being at such an elevated market cap, usually when something truly breaks into the top 10
and we have that next expansionary leg up
where Ethan Sol make new year-to-date highs,
that token that's becoming a new major
usually has some crazy up-only run
over the next few weeks, man.
But that's just my take man um bro someone the
other day when i was on a space uh was like dude you sound like you know he said something like
why does everyone who talks about hyperliquid sounds like someone a part of some MLM or some like pyramid scheme or whatever.
I found that to be quite funny. And I'm like, dude, that's pretty much everything outside of Bitcoin, man.
But, man, let's get some thoughts from Matt.
Matt, what's going on, brother?
How are you feeling?
Do you think these Bitcoin treasury
companies that are coming out of the woodwork are going to end up blowing up the market
like 3AC did? That's kind of my dubious speculation that I've had. And I've had some people say like,
oh, no, they're not adding their debt. They're not getting debt to get this bitcoin i'm like bro for now for now for now that's
not happening but at some point they're absolutely wait wait wait they're absolutely levering up and
adding debt to buy bitcoin that's yeah that's one of their biggest that's that's one of their
biggest ways they're they're buying bitcoin of course they're levering up on cheap debt, so-called 0% or 1% or 2%
interest rate loans not due until out in the future. And then not to go off on a huge tangent,
but when they do their preferred shares with the dividend and all this, that assumes that their underlying stock price
hits a certain strike price two years or three years or four years from now.
And some of those dates are coming in a year for microstrategy. But if it doesn't hit,
if it doesn't get to that price, then they're absolutely going to have to sell assets to cover their obligations.
And that's where it can really hit.
That's where it can really hurt.
So it's debt by a different name, but it's still debt.
It's still, hey, we promise these preferred shares that we're going to get to, let's just say $500 share price with a 5% coupon.
But if we don't get to $500 share price,
we guarantee we're going to pay you out X amount of dollars.
If they don't get to that price, they have to sell assets.
And to put a bow on this, the only assets they have is Bitcoin.
So you're selling shares, you're selling debt to buy Bitcoin.
And if your math is wrong or your timing is wrong, you have to sell Bitcoin to meet those obligations.
So do I think that they're causing an impact? Absolutely. They
are serious buying pressure and not just sailors strategy. You add up all the others and they're
already bigger than the Bitcoin miners ever were. The public Bitcoin miners, I mean.
And as we go farther into this bull market, I tweeted,
I think it was last week or the week before, I absolutely think all these Bitcoin treasury
companies that keep coming and keep going public, they're absolutely going to give us a blow off top,
100%. We had a rounded top in 2021 2021 technically two rounded tops if you if you
want to be specific but i think these uh bitcoin treasure companies are absolutely gonna give us a
big beautiful blow off top so we have to buy so we have to buy some puts
no at some point buy some puts. Okay, okay.
You better be damn sure.
Wait a month or two.
You better be damn sure that the next bear market started.
Because otherwise, you're going to be some of these other bears that shorted 80K Bitcoin and just liquidated themselves.
You better be damn sure it's over before you get all fancy with puts because these are beta plays to Bitcoin.
So if you're wrong, you're going to be liquidated before the sun's up.
Yeah.
Anyway, but long story short, they're not good.
They're not bad.
They're just inevitable.
It's just leverage on Bitcoin.
Bitcoin has always had leverage. Bitcoin has always had, like, let's talk recently now. Let's talk about recent headlines. Last week, it was Elon Trump. This week, it's Israel, Iran. Any sort
of scary short-term headline can always send Bitcoin into a 5% or 10% correction
over the weekend or overnight. That's always been the case. And even worse back in the day,
as you remember, Wabi. But I shared up in the nest, let's keep the big picture in mind.
I shared up in the nest, let's keep the big picture in mind.
Bitcoin is going much higher.
We've already flipped 2025 resistance into support.
That's the 1618 going all the way back to the previous cycle.
We have flipped that from originally resistance from the winter and the spring now into support.
And we're just building a base before we take the next leg higher.
And I think that next leg gets eventually to 150 in, call it fall, before winter later this year.
So I'm bullish.
I've got my feet kicked up.
I've just been in like, gee, what
vacation mode, where do I want to visit over the summer? Where do I want to kick it? You know,
because we did the hard work. We did the hard work all last year. We bought, you know, we did
the hard work in the winter, finding the courage to go ahead and buy the bottom, go buy more 85 and
80 and even 75 K for you.
Lucky ones.
Like you did the hard work.
You,
you filled your bags now,
like now you should be sitting on nothing but pure green gains and don't,
don't overtrade.
Don't overthink it.
Let this thing ride.
Donnie,
is there anything else that,
that you had wanted to say, say man before i pass it on over
to matt uh i was i was so busy just uh throughout matt's uh talk all i heard was a blow off top and
i really liked it yeah i mean what do you think donnie you think so or no i think they're pushing
an asset bubble this cycle honestly yeah that's what i think And so you're just having a lot of things line up
for it. And it's just keep stacking on top, just more confluence, more confluence, more confluence.
Like, I'm honestly tempted to write a list of like 100 things that are lining up. And there's
very few things on that list, I'm not biased, that is bearish, in my view, right? It's a crazy setup.
So I agree. And like, like obviously i'm not delusional
i'm going to trade the chart if i see that the cycle looks like it's rounding out or topping
out to me i'll be the first to call it but i think the potential is there and you shouldn't ignore it
that we are actually going way higher for longer yeah i shared up in the in the nest, I mean, if we take a year over year over year look at this, like the curve is getting steeper.
It doesn't feel like it when we, you know, because we lived through 2022 and 2023 and 2024 last year.
But the consolidations are getting shorter and the curve is getting steeper.
And as Donnie was talking earlier, you know, the numbers are
getting much, much larger. So, you know, eventually one of these corrections is going to punch a hole
through the previous support and it's not going to be a negative 25% correction. We're going to
wake up to like, whoa, negative 40. What happened overnight?
You know, and serious contemplation that it's a, that we just saw a blow off top in the start of
the next bear market. But that's next year problems. That's late this year problems.
Again, I'm so bullish right here in the short and medium term. All these current headlines, last week's Elon Trump, this week's Israel Iran, this is such
small potatoes.
This has nothing to do with the broader bullish economic and macro backdrop.
We already got confirmation.
I'll get on my usual dead horse, but we already got confirmation that all the biggest
S&P 500 companies beat earnings. The market wasn't phased at all with all the tariff fears
of the spring. In fact, it looks like all of those tariffs are getting either another round
of 90-day postponements or agreements here or exclusions there. So it's all good.
And oh, and the labor jobs labor market report last Friday was unexpectedly better
than the talking heads thought. It came out on the positive side we pay attention. We stay locked in. We pay attention every week and every month.
But we've had nothing but good news coming out of the Liberation Day fears to today.
And the charts show it, you know, whether you're looking at Nasdaq the blue chip mag 7 Bitcoin etc
everything just absolutely v-shape recovery and is all in if they're not
already made new all-time highs they're flirting with new talk they're flirting
with new all-time highs so you know I'm not going anywhere
all right man we've got uh three people requesting before i bring up anyone frankie what's up man
yo what's going on how we feeling great points by everyone completely agree
i uh you know yeah i mean dude i can't be bothered to be to be bearish, you know, yeah, I mean, dude, I can't be bothered to be, to be bearish here.
You know, I feel like I would just repeat all the things that these guys just said.
So, um, you know, what do you, is your, is your investment strategy reliant?
Like is the, is the fundamentals of your investment strategy world peace?
Because if that's the case, then, you know, you better get out of the markets now.
Conflicts are going to happen.
Things are going to happen.
Short of World War III or something devastating, like Israel, Iran, that whole area that's prone to conflict, right?
If Germany gets bombed, if the U.S. gets bombed, something, okay, that's a black swan.
And not to diminish what's going on over there.
It's terrible, obviously.
But I don't think that's something that even when we see the strength now you know in things and so i don't
think it's going to be i don't think it's going to be anything that really tanks the market too
much good things too many good things are in the pipelines are coming up and i you know i heard
from you know i heard from was this was in this space that i talked about, you know, I heard from, you know, I heard from, was this was in this space
that I talked about it. You know, I'm still fucking, I'm still like in a daze from Chris
Whalen saying that the Fed is going to end balance sheet reduction this month. I mean,
if that happens, fuck. I mean, maybe I'm, maybe I'm too excited about that aspect, but that'd be
the end of QT as I understand it. And that would be, uh, that'd be significant. And I wanted to
say one other thing too. And this wanted to say one other thing, too.
And this was to the host's point.
I don't know your name, brother. Sorry.
But retail or not, you know, I think people are really underestimating the fundamental investment appetite that new market participants are going to have. Case in point, the XRP army and all the boomers that
love XRP and the line out the door at Bitcoin Vegas to, there was something going on to buy
XRP or to learn about it or something. It was everybody's dad just in line to learn about XRP.
And when people start to really dive into this market and say to themselves, okay, there's
probably not a lot left in XRP, maybe two,
three X from here, four or five at the most. They're going to look for the beta plays to that.
What's the, what's the beta plays to that sort of stuff? You know, in my opinion, it's stuff like
Ando, you know, any big RWA play, maybe Chin Tai, Clearpool, if you want to go further out the risk
curve, looking at things like, you know, like render for example you know things are establishing
real network effects solving real world issues i do own render and shintai and um ando for example
you know just be transparent i don't own uh clear pool but that's another good rwa play
so i've been told but yeah man i think people are going to come in with a with a strong fundamental
risk appetite i think one thing that has and this was something that i realized you know i spent about a year and a half on youtube before i
ventured into crypto twitter and so i was and i came in about a year ago during the height of mean
you know meme mania so i was very surprised you know what i was seeing i was like wait a minute
wait a minute wait a minute you know and no shade to to memes at all you know you want to make money
however you want to make money but you know i think one of the things that this cycle has in the timeline too in a lot of cases and kind of you
know the the popular sentiment um around the cartoon character pfps is that there's only one
way to make it in this space and that's gambling on meme coins and i don't think that's true and
people say to themselves look you know i've been holding all it's not man it's not dude um on this show we
called out kta at sub 10 mil launch coin at 15 before they all pulled out like 20 30 40 x's man
um while while memes did barely anything to be frank um so personally i don't like memes that much man um ah just it's it's it's more extractive but
we can say it about altcoins in general everyone has like their own picks man some guys just focus
on memes some guys focus on fundamentals um but like if people want, and I hate saying this word now, bro, all season, um,
everything is going to run.
And typically like when memes run super hard, it's the end of a trend or the beginning of
an end of a trend.
And by running super hard, I mean like they've blown past their old all-time high and they're ripping every
other day and we saw that happen um like right after the election uh pepe broke its all-time high
the not the week after the election but the week after that and then bitcoin topped in like three and a half weeks and i i i've mentioned this here and there
but anytime pepe makes a new all-time high like breaks its old all-time high with gusto
then anyone can pull up a chart bitcoin usually tops within like three weeks happened when uh pepe broke its all-time high in late february bitcoin topped
on march 10th and then when pepe made that new high in like i think it was sometime in late q2
bitcoin had topped out at like 71k and change and then zoran set that mega short. Then Pepe broke its all-time high in mid-November-ish, like mid going into late November.
Bitcoin topped in three weeks.
And there's this weird stigma that if you bring up Pepe in any sort of light that's not up only, the community just like omega attacks you.
And I find that super super super bearish it's not
the same community as it was in 2023 when it went from like zero to almost two bill
that that that was fun that was fun but like those are kind of my thoughts on it, man. And I think Whiff was that last hoorah where it was pure meme and was sort of like a Pepe echo bubble because it ran so hard.
And with Farcoin, the move up was a bit more gradual.
It went from like zero to 30 mil mil then back to like 10 and then
started to stair step slowly every week it just started making new highs um and then it wasn't
until like december like mid-december uh after bitcoin had topped where farcoin really really
started to turbocharge it um but people have their mixed feelings with memes, man.
But you're going to have sectors outperform other sectors here and there.
You might have fundamental season and then meme season.
The whole cycle has just been this hot potato between sectors.
Like right after Bitcoin topped, really one of the only memes that were pumping hard after Bitcoin topped, I think it was like December 10 10th was far coin and if you didn't hold far coin or played an ai on soul and
base you got fried you got cooked you got skinned you got burned and it was basically down only for
like four months straight and now since those lows in april we've seen things like kate sorry sorry i i got a call we saw things like kta run hard
we saw things like launch coin run hard and these are plays that ran to like hundreds of millions
and i'm pretty sure kta ran to like one bill fdv um and circulating market cap it ran to like one bill FDV and circulating market cap.
It ran to like 700.
That's escape velocity, man.
That is escape velocity.
And you usually only see that with memes when Bitcoin is roaring into price discovery alongside Eath and soul making new cyclical highs so
until eath is 4k plus souls above 250 it's just really difficult to pinpoint which new meme is
going to come out and go from like zero to 500 but on the way there
dude i'm sure a lot of these older memes are going to run really hard um those are my thoughts
those are my thoughts on that because you saw what happened to mooding bro like mooding ran from
15 mil back up to 400 uh you saw spx 6900 my goodness bro how can i forget that you saw spx 6900 running
from 20 cents to essentially back to the old all-time high with now it's getting rejected
and people are under and let me let me finish i'm gonna i'm gonna finish up and pass it to you
donnie um people are underestimating mirad blowing up on TikTok. And crypto YouTube
has taken such a hit ever since. I think crypto YouTube got destroyed after Luna went to zero
and Celsius went to zero because a big part of crypto YouTube blowing up last cycle
was a bunch of these people shilling Celsius and BlockFi and all that stuff.
And retail was all excited about that.
And that's why the flows are way different, man.
There's no COVID stimmy.
There's no Zerp.
There's no QE.
There's no 3AC.
None of these hedge funds looping customer funds leverage on Anchor or funneling it through celsius and all that stuff to get yield
um with lp money and all that stuff and i think crypto tiktok is is gonna blow up because a lot
of these new market participants they have the memory span of a goldfish and you see that on solana a lot you see these charts they go from
zero to 50 mil and then back to zero and it's the same slosh of money going from new ticker to new
ticker to new ticker and it's like tiktok type of brain right 15 to 20 second um memory and i think spx is one of those few memes that are new this cycle
that can go a lot higher than than people think now i'm not gonna be here and say i'll do 25 bill
30 bill because frankly i think that's ridiculous i think that's really cocky i think that is
i think that's shady analysis, to be honest.
But going to $10, bro, by all means.
$10, $6, $7, sure.
There's way too many tickers, bro.
But I think SPX is a bet on crypto TikTok actually being a thing here.
And that chart is amazing.
But I'm going to pass it over to Donnie.
Donnie wanted to
say something donna what's up man apologies i went on that rant man anytime meme coins are brought up
i just do you know what it sounds like to me bro it sounds like eth all over again at the bottom
it's like eth is dead oh my god it's the shittest l1 in the world and then boom you get the god
candle and everyone's like oh yeah, ETH's looking pretty good here
if it crosses 2800.
The tech is, the tech
and the yield, they're bringing yield
to the TradFi guys. Every
time the narrative flips when the candles
come in. So it's honestly the same
with meme coins. It was like meme coins are
dead, blah blah blah, all this kind of stuff. But
you realize the fervor that
the market is going to have when all of this unfolds, Bitcoin dominance going down, ETH BTC flipping, Bitcoin
going into very deep price discovery. That's the kind of market environment where these meme
tickers actually thrive in. And they're just so easy to bid for people that don't know what to
bid. They just see a green candle on a good chart,
and they just throw money at it.
It's not even what the ticker is called.
It's just so much easier to bid that
than it is to bid all of these other tokens,
like the utility plays and stuff.
Even though they will also do well,
because I just think everything is going to go well.
I just think memes,
especially the ones that have kind of solidified themselves, Pepe, that narrative, and a bunch of others,
I think as the market keeps expanding higher, they're just going to go higher and higher.
It's just like, I think they've solidified themselves. And there's a lot of potential
upside on these tokens because they've come down 95%, which again, these are super high risk
trades. But when you have this flourishing market environment, they make for the highest returns,
and the easiest returns. If you're bidding at these lows, like the RR is just crazy.
And what Murad's doing with like SPX, it's actually hilarious. He's doing a huge thing for the entire meme coin space because if SPX
6900 does really go to like
10-20 billion, which easily it can if
Ether's hitting stupid numbers,
that's going to unlock so
much liquidity to rotate around down
the ladder on the rest of the meme coin market.
So he's helping the entire
meme industry, in my opinion, with what he's doing.
I'm just bullish on everything, bro.
Honestly, we haven't had these things confirm for this massive wave up in the market as a whole.
I just think everything's going to do well.
Yeah, usually with SPX, you have other like lock-in and sigma doing quite well and that aura
pump was like so crazy man and i have this gut feeling that some of these lower cap tokens are
gonna have a move like that um when the s&p 500 breaks all-time high that that's my guess i think that next wave bro like eth going to 3200 and
solana finally coming back to its old ways of up only i think that comes back when spx goes into
price discovery which man we're really flirting with it man we're really flirting with it and the fact that we're kind of teeter-tottering
between like 5,900 and 6,000 whenever we do break 6,200 it's gonna be it's gonna be insane man and
like hood going above 100 bucks is gonna be something insane also um that stock dude is going to be such a gold mine for people that like
park their their funds in the stock market like 10 years from now they're gonna say damn dude
i wish i could have bought in hood at sub 100 they're gonna look at you as if you were a genius. Man, I look at the one stock, though, that I really regret not getting and just parking funds and not looking at it was Palantir.
I remember Airmass at the bottom of the equity markets in late 2022.
He gave a thesis on Palantir because he liked the ceo's hair that was like his thesis
and he would just always talk about palantir um at like six seven bucks now it's trading at 140
and you know you look at some of these altcoins bro there are a lot of altcoins that are not up that amount from their ftx lows they're
just they're just not um like even even solana right now like it's not up 20x from the bear
market lows it's now only sitting at 17 even though yeah i understand it went up like 50x or 30x
from the lows but as far as like holding value dude there are some stocks out there that
give huge returns you look at dog shit like chain link and avax dude chain link is like
only 3x above its bear market lows avax is only up 2x from its from its bear market lows
xrp is only up like 4x from its bear market lows. There are a lot of
altcoins that are truly just out there to scam you. And the equity markets do not get as much
credit as they should, to be honest. And I think if you're in crypto, there is going to be a time where you look at the equity markets and say, damn, it's time for me to expand my horizons.
And those are my thoughts on that, man.
But Matt, did you want to say something?
Yeah, the last correction over the spring.
I didn't buy any Robinhood, despite us talking about it so much.
But I did buy NVIDIA at $95.
That's the first equity.
That's the first stock I've bought in a long, long time. Mostly,
it's just re-adding to Bitcoin on every correction.
Was that like free stock split or was that recently?
No, no, no. Just recently. Just back in the spring after Liberation Day. NVIDIA had a nasty,
after Liberation Day.
NVIDIA had like a nasty, what, 40% or 45% correction with everything else.
And so, you know, when we were talking about like, you know,
Bitcoin's going to bottom out here Sunday night,
and then watch equities bottom first thing in the morning Monday.
So, you know, I wanted something, and it seemed like the no-brainer was,
listen, there's only one medium long-term
juggernaut in AI space and that's NVIDIA. So I bought a bunch at $95 and it's at $140 now,
$142. So that's a nice tidy plus 50%. Matt, do you think Palantir is following
what NVIDIA did last year? You look at palantir and it's one of the few
stocks next to robin hood where it had that nasty correction going into early april and within a
few weeks back at all-time highs and i'm looking at palantir and like it's it's trading it's trading
at sub 200 bill and i remember remember NVIDIA was chatting.
It's like, oh no, it's at 100 bill.
It's way over value.
Chips are going to zero.
And then 200 bill.
Oh, it's the insiders.
They're insider trading.
And then at 300 bill.
Oh, why are majority shareholders from the board selling?
Oh no, it's going to zero. And then it just kept
on going on and on and on and on. Well, this is the problem. This is the problem when people just
refuse to accept that they're blowing out earnings quarter after quarter. Not just beating earnings,
but double digit percent, beating earnings by 20% and 15% and 18% on both profitability and revenue.
And like when you get a couple quarters of that in a row and then a year or two of that in a row,
eventually you just got to be like, all right, maybe 2023 and 2024 was not a fluke for NVIDIA.
And so unless I'm just going to be that guy who stared at it,
go from $1 trillion to $10 trillion over my lifetime, let me get some at $95 just to say I didn't miss it.
So that's what I did.
Like, all right, let me get some NVIDIA at $95.
I don't know. And I don't't think i'm gonna hold it uh forever um i'm happy to sell into a blow off top
if it if it gets crazy overvalued but um i have a simple piece like palantir it's that's too hard that's in the too hard bucket for me look i love i use and love robin hood i
i've been a gamer my whole childhood i've used nvidia products my whole damn life uh bitcoin
obviously i use and love bitcoin um but palantir like i i've seen it i i saw it in afghanistan i saw it uh back as early as like 2010 2011 2012
when it was still a private company and like it's always been in the too hard bucket for me
uh relies so much on government contracts and and um i don't know like Like, am I sure? Maybe, maybe, maybe it's on a rip roaring rally while,
there's so much,
chaos in the world,
but.
So it's like Tesla in a way,
government contracts and all that stuff,
subsidies,
all that stuff.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I mean,
that's a good,
that's a good point.
Like all of a sudden,
what's Tesla's next earnings going to be when they took away the EV credits?
When all of a sudden other car makers and Tesla buyers, like there's no EV credits anymore.
So it's going to make a difference.
I don't know how much or little, but it's just in the too hard bucket.
There's so many opportunities out there. There's so many opportunities out
there. There's so many things to buy. And I salute anyone who had the conviction like, oh, no, no,
I use Palantir all the time. I'm going to buy a hell of it, a hell lot of it at $10, at $15,
at sub $20. And they've, and they've done, you know, they've, they've all made 10 X's and 20 X's,
but could have done that with NVIDIA as well. Could have done that with Robinhood as well.
You could have made 500% on Bitcoin, which is the easiest trade of any of this, and more to come.
So, yeah, you don't have to own all of them, especially the ones you don't use and may or may not understand.
And I'm okay admitting, like, I don't use Palantir, and I have no insight into the company.
So, like, nah, it's in the too hard bucket for me.
Yeah, I think, I think hood is, like, right below Palantir
as far as market cap.
I think it's way smaller, isn't it?
Yeah, it's, like, by half right it's like a
it's like a 2x for hood to catch up uh to palantir i'm thinking about like a future mag 7 man that's
that's that's what i'm thinking about so if you want exposure to markets um it would be hood and then of course to AI I'm assuming I'm assuming Palantir man
but that's just like if you want to diversify outside of outside of crypto is is what I'm
thinking but matter if you're into if you're into gaming dude there's uh new game from my favorite gaming studio arc system works
the game is called marvel tokon fighting souls i'm gonna put it up on the nest it's basically like
imagine it's it's basically a marvel fighting game but like with an anime game style type thing. It looks fucking sick, man.
I think I saw it.
Yeah, it's got the Japanese style.
Dude, it is so sick, man.
I think this is on my radar too, yeah.
Yeah, man.
Donnie, are you a gamer, brother?
Have any chance?
Sorry, my mic was muted.
What was the question?
Are you a gamer? Oh oh not so much anymore i used to game like crazy though when the last like you know when i was probably from a young age
still about 25 same yeah what was your what was your guilty pleasure were you in wow call of duty nah yeah i was a monster at that game
dude i find like anyone that's interested in in crypto that's active comes from a gaming
background like an intense gaming background not like this casual player type stuff but i mean like something
that triggers all of your senses and requires insane hand-eye coordination man um but uh
yeah that's dang it actually feels nice to take a little break to talk about a topic that's just
not markets man and add some personality to the show.
But we have Luke up here on the panel.
He's had his hand up for a while.
Luke, what's going on, man?
What's up, guys?
Yeah, I mean, it's interesting.
Donnie, is this another scam shakeout, huh?
I feel like...
Were you here at the start of the show?
I don't think I don't know if I was
But it just feels like all these events
The news flow is so crazy
Nowadays that you almost just have
To fade everything
If you can hold on to stuff for more than a year
I mean
You just fade everything
At this point
I don't know what I would actually pay attention to I mean, you just fade everything at this point. I don't know what I would actually pay attention to.
I mean, is oil going to spike to some ungodly number?
And I don't know.
What's the downside?
You know, the funny thing about oil, you know, everyone was talking about, oh my God, look at oil printing. The average price for a barrel of oil is $80 over the last 10 to 15 years. So oil in the 70s is below its average decade price, especially when you consider inflation too.
Yeah. So what's the real risk is like the the straight of the
shipping routes getting all messed up in terms of market i'm sorry go ahead yeah yeah market risk
here's the thing it's the same to me this this is and it's nowhere near as extreme, but it's the same as the 74K low, right?
Everyone was freaking out.
And for me, I didn't care because all I wanted
was to be on the other side of the resolution.
And I feel like it's the same just because the bigger picture
to me is set in stone where this market is headed,
that all of this is short-term noise.
Even if it's real life things that are happening,
it's still noise in the market.
So I just don't care. If it n't it feel like they're gonna revive it like doesn't it feel like last
last summer because it's the same players in this war like when everyone is freaking out it's this
is like this is ongoing this is not a new thing we've had these multiple wars going on for a couple years.
So I think maybe people are just used to it at this point.
Yeah, I don't know.
But I know if you cross 106.2, you can start building the case that the low is in.
And above 108.4, the low is 100% in.
And you're going to new all-time high.
So literally, just watch those two levels.
If you get the confirmation it's done yeah i mean if you look at the last this last shakeout and then the one
before there are higher lows i don't know if that means anything yeah it certainly does it definitely means something that um the market isn't yeah isn't
that like less liberation thing where it makes higher lows off the bottom
well so last week was the trump elan drama almost literally to the day, Thursday, Friday.
And now you've got Israel-Iran.
But if you just look at Bitcoin price, the market's telling you that they were more scared or shocked or surprised with the Trump-Elon news last week.
And this week, they're like, yeah, they'll figure it out.
They're always shooting rockets at each other.
But no one else has an appetite for escalating.
So, yeah.
The chart just tells you that the last WIC low that we had,
there was liquidity down there that needed to be hunted
because people were longing the all-time highs with leverage.
And if this is a higher low, there is no more liquidity below
because they already took that.
So if we're putting in a higher low
and confirming the upside,
that means it's done.
There's no more reason to go lower
because there's no liquidity down there to take.
If we're going lower,
then they're actually sending it lower
for a different reason.
But yeah, Luke,
if you wanted more info and stuff,
I gave a pretty big explanation
on the technicals and everything at the start of this space.
So just not keen to repeat another half hour.
Yeah, I'll check it out. Thank you.
Yeah, I mean, high time frame, everything is so bullish.
As long as we're above whatever.
What is it, Matt? Like mid-90s? Or 92?
For me, I think anything above 102. Not 92, 102.
Because that's the... Oh, gosh, I'm not looking at the computer anymore.
But that was the Fibonacci from 2021 all the way down to bear
market 2022, right there at 102. So we keep price above 102 to 104. To me, that just says,
yes, we're still flipping that previous resistance into support. And when the market's ready uh we're gonna absolutely launch
yeah i mean i feel like if s s p and everything's above all the moving averages like
for for a long time like how could you be bearish i don't i don't get it. And we're not.
I don't remember the last time Donnie said anything bearish going back through the spring into the winter.
The only thing that could have thrown a wrench into any of this was Liberation Day and all the tariff scares. But again, all we get is more postponements, more agreements, more exclusions, and more deals.
So it's all trending in the right direction, whether you think they're effective or not.
It's all trending into Solutions and resolutions And
Bullish news, not bearish
Well guys
Yeah, I was going to say
I have to get going
Yeah, I was going to
Announce the conclusion
Of the space, man.
But Donnie, Matt, Frankie, thank you all so much for tuning in.
We've been streaming for about an hour and a half.
This was quite the show, man.
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God bless you all. Bye-bye. Thank you. Thank you. . Thank you.
