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Market Talk-HUGE MOVE FOR BTC INCOMING?! STOCKS CRASHING?BOTTOM IS IN?
Recorded: March 30, 2026 Duration: 2:32:21Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. This is the first time I was in the studio. I was in the studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio studio This one.んんん
ん Oh Oh oh
um . Yes. Thank you. so
I'm not going to die. Oh We'll make it like a game. We'll make it like a game. Oh This is the major. This is the major.
This is the major.
This is the major.
This is the major.
This is the major. Oh Yeah. yo what's going on guys welcome back to market talk brought to you by bb i hope you all had a
fantastic weekend i know i'm doing so much better man i am off of all these meds
it's my first day taking no antibiotics no medication post wisdom tooth surgery and uh
honestly it's it's it's really the the road to recovery now after uh you go through a full round of uh antibiotics you kind of feel
like crap um but as the hours go by you feel like your system regenerating and all that stuff
but um anyways man what an insane start to the week you have crude oil now crossing towards that price where it was trading on hyperliquid, something we've been discussing on the show.
But everything else is basically just hemorrhaging out in the equity market while crypto is not really doing much at all.
We're still ping-ponging mid-range between 65 to 68. You have the S&P
and the Qs continuing to make new year-to-date lows. You do have some stocks that are remaining
a little bit elevated. Perhaps that's because crypto isn't really doing much you have things like uh mstr still elevated um but you are starting
to see some uh some other names starting to catch up um there's really not much where to hide in uh
in crypto honestly on chain there's not much going on there at all i know today was supposed to be
some ridiculous event called uh meme scope monday whatever that was supposed to be and
absolutely nothing happened i mean over the weekend you had like two tickers go to like 20 to 25 mil, and then they both rugged within 24 hours.
You had many people shill that these bundles were bullish, and right when they crossed that,
I call it like the mini threshold for Solana shedders, you usually have that 15 to 25 mil peak. And then you have 50 to about 80.
And then kind of the upper echelon of this current environment,
which is between like 110 to 200 mil.
White whale and pengu, not pengu, penguin were the only tokens to reach those uh market caps but nonetheless i'm calling
those the upper echelon of um where some on-chain tokens could potentially hit um and honestly we
did see kita around this time last year launch and just went on this insane rampage and during these times we have seen um these bit tensor subnets
rally significantly of course you look at things like the strongest names right now in the market
tau and hype pulling back a little bit after weeks of insane strength, there's not much to hide when you start seeing these breakdowns in the
indices. And usually that does result into some vol event whenever you start seeing the S&P
and the Qs continue to make back-to-back year-to-date lows. During back-to-back
sessions with almost no relief, it usually resolves in a vol event.
So what that means is you usually have what people would call a circuit breaker, a circuit breaker event, where you see the Qs and the S&P both gap down by about 4% to 5%.
percent um i am watching and i said this during uh some of last week's shows i'm watching the q1
highs for the spx and the queues um so for the spx i would be about 6100 ish right around there i
could be off by a few points but i'm just going to call it 61 6100 and for the
queues it would be about right below 540 so we're not that far off right we're not that far off and
i think we could potentially see a bounce but if we are going to have that vol event and we're
going to continue to have this kind of price action because everyone is
going to start piling on on puts and wants to create another multi-year top for oil then
you could see the queues going all the way down to like 500 honestly 508 or something like that
and it probably resolves around btc going to the-50s, which wouldn't be that big of a deal.
It's the only altcoin that I'm really eyeing throughout this entire trend where they want to call it a full-on bear,
which it doesn't really have the characteristics of a full-on bear.
It has more of the characteristics of an apathetic, crabbish bear like the second half of 2019 i'm not confident that you would see
hyper liquid trading back below ten dollars honestly unless something catastrophic really
does happen um and i know i'm saying uh dude, Wabi, why are you saying crypto looks strong and stocks
don't?
That's usually indicative of crypto needing to catch up in some way.
I don't really know if that's actually going to happen.
No, if that's actually going to happen.
You have some stocks like Meta, for example, not that of like 100 to 300% tariffs on every single country or something like that.
So you have some names in the equity markets, just singular names, of course, just absolutely hemorrhaging and going near these lows that haven't been seen in almost a year whether it's crypto you look at
hyperliquid hyperliquid's low was at about eight dollars ethereum's low was at about thirteen
hundred dollars um solana of course solana continued to make lower highs and eventually
made lower lows but for the most part you do have some names in
crypto that still remain somewhat elevated but um I still think most altcoins are trash and
they're not gonna they're not going to survive in my opinion outside of hyperliquid and i guess tau now man i i i do guess tau because anytime you start to see
the crypto market and this uncertain bearish crab and you see some strength in a sector
when the market finally resolves and goes back into a higher time frame uptrend that sector usually does well um and we saw that
with some coins on chain as we started to bottom out going into april and they did tremendously well
that's what i have to say about that really um and i understand how the prospect of meme coins coming back is effective at a zero in most market participant's eyes.
But I would beg to differ as the market, even though we topped out in October, every month there's always been a massive runner within that sector.
So what happens when the market goes fully risk on is what I ask myself.
I know there have been parallels to draw this sector towards NFTs, towards DeFi, and stuff like that.
But even during this downtrend, there are people that still want to bid this sector.
Same thing with AI.
And as long as things like Anthropic and OpenAI don't IPO,
I still think there's a lot of more room to the upside.
And even when the IPO, I still think that the growth story for AI and even some frenzy
and memes are still going to expand.
And I know people in crypto might be asking themselves, man, last cycle.
I'm going to call it last cycle now, right?
Everything that trended from late 22 all the way to Q4 of 25, I'm going to start calling that last cycle because it was last cycle.
It was the axiom cycle, pump fund cycle, whatever it is that you want to call it. The reason why is
because if you want to gauge attention, right, what we went through two cycles ago in 2019 through
2021, it was really similar to the dot-com bubble. If you want to factor in attention and hype and all that stuff you had
elon musk going on snl um sam bagman freed was placing his crypto exchange and crypto products
on stadiums and all that stuff so that was essentially our dot-com moment. And what we went through years after that up until now was this post dot-com apathetic cycle to the upside.
If you look at how the market was trending from when we bottomed out on March of 2003 all the way to early away, it was a really apathetic market where it was a asset selectors
market, right? It was real estate, industrial stuff like that. And the NASDAQ just made a lower high.
So honestly, it's kind of the same thing. If look at inflation-adjusted all-time highs for Ethereum, for Solana, where even though we did make a nominal all-time high for ETH, we hit 5,000 on ETH, 300 on Sol.
Inflation-adjusted, it was a lower high.
It was a lower high.
And Bitcoin inflation-adjusted barely hit a marginal all-time high for inflation adjusted
actually no no inflation adjusted i think we double topped i think we double topped um
and i'm gonna consider july of 2025 the all-time high for bitcoin because all we did months after that for august september and october were these little all-time highs that
were like a hundred bucks to 500 bucks higher than the previous high um and that that was just
that was ridiculous honestly and i'm still going to go on record to say it's because of all the dilution in the
markets now, even in TradFi, people ask themselves, why would I bid Bitcoin or ETH or Solana when I
could just bid a dot, right? These digital asset treasury companies, which is essentially Tradify levered BTC, ETH, or Sol. Why would I buy ETH if I could
just buy BMNR? Why should I buy Bitcoin if I could buy MSTR? And now it's this ridiculous
thing called STRC. Why would I buy MSTR? It's always the same thing, right? So it's always the same thing right so it's this it's this thing where like people
effectively want a diluted market and you have to pay the price and i think now that price is time
how long can you withstand trading within a range because we all know should BTC make new lows,
which at this point I do agree it's more probable than not,
but just not as low as people think,
at least in the immediate short term, right?
I'm talking about immediate short term price action.
We know how long these ranges can last.
We've been in this range for Bitcoin for almost two months now right almost two months and our last range lasted i i i think almost let me check right now yeah we ranged for
yeah for just over two months now so if we gap down, are you ready for another two months
of ranging or even longer than that? During these downtrends, I mean, we saw in 2022, for example,
when we made that low at 17K, we ranged for about five months. So are people ready for that,
right? Or even worse, if we do make new
lows, what if we just range for the rest of the year and then have our bull market next year,
which is kind of my take. I think within the next 18 months, Bitcoin hits an all-time high.
And I think the next cycle peak happens before the halving. And I have my reasons for that.
One, it's going to be a halving under Trump.
And this administration is probably going to throw so much attention at crypto to the point where they're likely going to be starting the Bitcoin strategic reserve.
And I think that's going to coincide with the top. Kind of like how a lot of people in crypto understood that if Monad goes live, that's when Acer and all that stuff kind of
peaked out and attention started to sink out of crypto and into select names in the equity
markets.
So I think like the next top is just going to be something globally where people are
just going to understand that,
hey, maybe I should buy crypto, at least from a retail mind's perspective. I think it's time to gamble back on crypto and that'll set some exit liquidity for this market. I mean, what better
story is there than a Bitcoin strategic reserve? And I guess the prelude to that would be these digital
asset treasury companies that we saw trending last year right publicly traded companies
buying ethereum and all that stuff adding bitcoin to their balance sheet
that was a prelude for what's to come in my opinion um and at some point i do think there
will at least be one wave of breadth in crypto
during the trump administration um it's just unfortunate that the first half of his term
um is going to be shit last year was kind of shit this year is probably going to be the same thing
um but at some point the the trump bonanza will flow into crypto.
What we saw with things like Sandisk and Intel and a few of those other names, I do think at some point you'll see that breadth come into play over the next few years in crypto were like this post.com apathetic bull market that I'm describing here,
then you'll know post.com after the ensuing bear market, when we finally bottomed out in Q1 of 2009,
you actually started to see big flows come into what we now know as the Mag-7.
Now, if Hyperliquid survives, perhaps it's that, as well as Tau and maybe some other names that
we don't know. Maybe PumpFun comes back and Solana actually retests its inflation adjusted all-time high at that point
who knows um but i do believe in this market and i don't think crypto is going anywhere
and um i do think that we're in for some exciting times but for now for the immediate short term
i'm assuming we're just gonna have to wait for whenever this taco comes to the market, even if that taco is a taco from Chipotle, which is probably the only fast food restaurant in the United States that is equally as bad as Arby's.
equally as bad as Arby's. I'm not even sure how Arby's still exists. It's like the mattress firm
of the fast food industry. You see it everywhere for whatever reason, and it's always empty.
It's always empty. There are no lines, but for some reason, it's like the cockroach
of the fast food industry. And speaking of cockroaches, I understand, guys, you might be
looking at your timeline and say, man, who's ever going to come back into these markets? Who's going
to come back to bid my coins? Well, I have something to share with you guys. It's going to be
the last remaining 200 or 300 people on your timeline, retweeting and interacting with each other's
posts so that they can remain relevant on your timeline. And that way, when new participants
come back or old participants come back, they And thankfully, we don't have a Luna.
Maybe ENA.
I just don't know how badly that would affect our market.
Yeah, I really don't know how much ENA going down would affect our market.
If it does at all to the effect of Luna,
I really don't think it would affect our market at all.
So there's no leverage contango in this market that could destroy us unless ETH goes to like 500 bucks.
And at that point, it's actually over
because Maker would go down
and many, many, many, many people would go under.
And I just don't think that's going to happen, at least for now.
But anyways, guys, we're going to go ahead and officially get started.
I'm done yapping.
That's kind of my intro.
I got Prometheus up here.
He hasn't been here in like a month he came back uh visiting
bangladesh so welcome back prometheus but guys whoa whoa whoa bangladesh yeah that is
yeah you said you came from bangladesh so i'm visiting india yeah dude you said you're visiting bangladesh yes that's why
we're having this kind of price action that's crazy and that's exactly why we're seeing this
price action but any any just straight diarrhea yeah but any anyways guys that's why oil is like
is like going up and you know what's crazy man it's like you have some stratified people
saying oh zoinks um oil is going into price discovery it's making uh new quarterly highs
right and in reality if you were a crypto bro you've had more alpha on equities than people
who just trade equities if you've been trading crypto and equities and you use things like hyperliquid you've actually had more alpha right hyperliquid
you had oil hit like 120 ish um a few weeks ago and last week as it was going to the upper range
some of us were like bro tradfi probably marks up to that price where oil was trading and look
what's happening right now kind of like what cme was uh for crypto where you if you've had a gap
to the upside to the downside whatever that alpha was last cycle where it's like oh we have a cme gap
at xyz we're gonna go fill it right, now the new CME for TradFi is
hyperliquid, right? It's hyperliquid. You could even say prediction markets. I think on Polymarket,
there's some poll that Bitcoin has a 52% chance of going to 45K. My goodness, if that happens,
my goodness, if that happens, oh boy.
I would be speechless, honestly.
I really would.
More so because at that point,
you probably have a lot of altcoins
that I'm probably not even looking at.
Probably just close up shop.
I did see there were some altcoins that actually closed up shop earlier this year
kadena i think it was yeah kda which two cycles ago went to like billions and billions of market
cap so that probably happens man it probably does you also had the aptos co-founder mo sheath the gal with long hair
um leave aptos shortly uh i think shortly before after 10 10 um which some altcoins still have Wicks to fill, honestly, man. Like Pepe.
Yeah, like Pepe.
My goodness, man.
I hope that one doesn't actually go to zero, man. Because I think Pepe, like sub one bill, is the trade of a lifetime.
is the trade of a lifetime.
But crypto has a way of giving you pain when you say, damn, you know, like XYZ token at
this price really does seem like the trade of a lifetime.
And then you just get cut in half.
And that happened with Solana.
I remember this.
It happened with Solana when it was trading at around like 20 to 30 bucks or something like that.
Shortly after Caroline Ellison became CEO of FTX and Sol was trading between 20 to 30 bucks, it had that breakout towards 40 and then it just got slaughtered towards eight but then
eventually you you broke even um like two months later but that's the thing with crypto right are
you willing to go through that short-term haircut of 50 to 60 even 70 percent right is your stomach
strong enough um so you'd have to be confident in that, right?
Are you willing to go through that drawdown? Are you willing to go through months of almost no
price action should the bottom form? Are you comfortable buying that 30 to 50% pop that
happens off of a bottom and then does nothing.
And you're willing to hold through that little uncertainty,
kind of like second half of 2023, right?
Where crypto didn't really do much after it bottomed in August,
and Trotify was just nuking the bed.
And many people were kind of scared to bid,
because prices essentially flatlined for a couple of weeks.
The volatility was almost not.
And usually when you see TradFi marking down and crypto is not doing much, crypto very rarely does not react the same right of course with the exception of as i said second half
of 2023 um and i guess now right i think you would need to see the cues marked down to like
500 or something like that for crypto to get a substantial reaction um anyways man pigeons are
weird animals but i'm gonna go ahead and pass it over to prometheus and ghosty before i do that
guys i want to welcome you back once again to market talk brought to you by bb my name is wabi
and uh if you guys can go ahead show some love to the space guys,
show some love to us here at BB. Best way to do that guys is by clicking the spaces tab.
Once you guys do that, you'll see right above our profile pictures, there's a nice link that says
x.com slash I slash spaces. You guys can go ahead, hit the like button, guys.
Smash the like button, whether you're bullish or bearish.
Hit the like button.
And also the retweet button, guys.
It brings more people onto the show as far as awareness on the algo.
The algo has been so ever-changing.
It's definitely a bit different compared to when Jack was involved, honestly.
But we'll make do with what we have.
I'm sure your guys' timeline has been a bit different.
There's a lot of rage baiting now and a lot less crypto-specific content.
A lot less crypto-specific content.
But, gosh, man, the timeline has been filled with so much Rage Bay content.
You have to mute so many words now, even if you do your best to custom tailor it.
But I do think CT is not dead, and we will be back.
And I'll die on that shit, man.
CT never dies.
It is the cockroach of Twitter.
Even when things are hemorrhaging down, the memes will save us.
As long as there's at least a handful of us posting charts and memes
and funny stuff on the timeline, we'll be okay.
And the bears need to do better at posting memes, man.
There are not as many memes being posted.
I'm not sure why.
I hope some bears can just relax off of their puts
and off of their shorts
and put some lighthearted bear content on the timeline and i
think i i think that the time would be a lot more agreeable we need more memes on the timeline we
need more bear memes on the timeline um anyways sullivan i'm gonna invite you man we need Sullivan to post more memes
on the timeline
Prometheus, I think I'll pass it over
to you now man
it's been a couple weeks
oh there he is, the man of the hour
Sullivan
is Sullivan speaking?
man I'm insulted wabi yeah where where are the bear memes man bro i post a new bear meme like every day and then i don't know what's going on man because
like i remember last bear bear cycle we had marusha we had uh imagined saying whatever his name is uh the the guy
with with uh the pink-haired goku man um he was like really good friends with knock we had so
many cast members uh two damn dude two bear cycles ago wow we're getting old here man i'll tell you what wabi the the bobo
guys i never bought the token but they have a whole meme page with literally like 7 000 bear
memes that i've just been like i just scroll through it on any given day and i'll find something something pretty funny to post. Tommy, so I guess we'll start off with you, man. Dude,
Meta men, are they the new Ando men, bro? Meta men, please stand up. Dude, it seems like Meta
is always the quickest or has been the quickest um ticker to the downside whenever it's
risk off we saw that last bear cycle um meta essentially retraced like I think a decade of
of price action um or essentially all of its price action that that's how low it trended man um is history
going to repeat itself man i uh yeah i think so man i mean it's like people always want to assign
and i was kind of thinking about this over the weekend it's kind of funny how bull trends make
you believe in fundamentals and bear trends show you how little that actually matters when the market starts to move lower. And Meta is kind of like the perfect example of that. I think it's
probably the most reflexive momentum asset within the Mag 7 outside of probably Tesla. I know we
have maybe recency bias with NVIDIA, and obviously that was amazing to the upside. But I mean,
we've already seen Meta pump and dump pretty aggressively over the last decade.
I don't think that this time is going to be any different if you are of the assumption, like I am, that the market is probably headed into some sort of bear market.
I mean, I'd argue that we probably already are in one.
Meta at this point is what, down like 30% to 40% from the local highs.
Structure looks absolutely fugly.
And I'll tell you what, Wabi, just watching the MAG7 names pretty much all day,
you can pretty noticeably see a lack of bid on most of these names that for weeks
they would have these tiny little sell-offs and you'd wonder oh is this going
to be the time where we finally see this market move lower um and then it and then it would revert
higher right on these kind of like volatility crushes that we had mechanically in the market
for a very long time and it kept a lot of these large cap assets like n, like Meta, like Tesla, like Microsoft, all of these Mag7 names
just kind of stayed pinned in fairly tight ranges for a very long time. And now I think we're pretty
noticeably starting to see these assets unpin. Meta obviously kind of happened last week.
Very big move down. You can blame the lawsuit would blame I would blame the flows and I think
we're gonna see probably a similar move start to occur for something like Nvidia where it's
gonna break down from the range but really just post expiration post op-ex quarterly op-ex that
we had two weeks ago these vol dampening flows that we've had, they've dissipated.
They aren't there anymore.
And now we're seeing these individual names just because there's been so much dispersion
throughout the market.
It's too dispersed, right?
There's not enough capital to hold up all of these different individual names, and they
can't just hide behind index vol suppression anymore so yeah i mean i'm just watching these mag 7 names throughout the day
and they've just been bleeding as if there's no bid because there is no bid uh and soon that will
be the indices uh i think in short order and uh yeah mayday march soon anal april
does this mayday does you said mayday may right um so may march march mayday march we're technically
like through mayday march a little bit i mean we have one day left in the month but it's uh it just
rolls off the tongue so good i actually think uh second half of May and June will be positive for the market,
but I don't see really any way that April is going to be a green month.
I think it's going to be maybe the worst returning month of 2026.
So the bottom will be in momentarily, or the bottom will fall out momentarily i guess if you if we were
to look at it that way um but damn dude yeah like seeing this price action on meta is pretty similar
to uh what i saw in q4 of uh of 2022 where we just keep on bleeding out relentlessly um prometheus what are your thoughts
man we now have uh some of these singular names um i guess you can call them crypto beta start
to fall out iron closed today at like 30 bucks a share um and honestly like all the names that i look at in equity markets they're breaking down
um hood is breaking down now and when that happened it's kind of like all right i'm gonna
take kind of take a step back and see where new ranges form um but if names that have been
consolidating for for months right uh are now breaking down relentlessly, and now we're seeing the beta break down, we all know what happens, right?
Bottom falls out, and then we actually have some real discounts for pristine assets, right?
pristine assets, right? Instead of just a regular buy the dip, we actually can buy a crash where
names are down like 60 to 70%. And you have the younger generation that could actually buy some
of these assets at good discounted prices. But anyways, man, dude, how was your trip to Bangladesh?
Okay.
I guess kind of go on from there i uh yeah bangladesh was amazing um lots of
diarrhea hot caca um and yeah i mean it was i mean it was a great trip regardless kind of jokes aside
i highly recommend to anybody you know if you have the opportunity to travel, enjoy yourself, vacation, hopefully the fruits of your labor.
Very important to get away from the markets and just kind of the whole space in general for periods of time at certain points.
It was a really, really, it was a blessing.
But regardless, I'll talk markets.
People probably don't care about that.
Just kind of getting back into the swing of things, trying to get back into the flow state.
You know, before I left, I felt pretty on.
You know, I felt like I was pretty in the zone.
And trying to get back into that. So just kind of going over charts over the past, you know,
four days and getting back into the flow of things. And I think that, you know, just talking
price action, Bitcoin just doing exactly what it did at the end of last year, the beginning of this
year is what it looks like. You know, I get pretty granular in the discord of why that is.
I don't really think there's any room to be overthinking Bitcoin at this point.
You know, I just want to look at price and pay attention to price at this point.
You know, if we lose 66K, I think, you know, targeting 50K is pretty healthy.
you know targeting 50k is pretty healthy i don't think that there's any reason why that should be
I don't think that there's any reason why that should be out of the question.
out of the question um they kind of coincide roughly with the 70 pullback that we you know see
in uh you know in like the bear markets quote unquote um i think that there's a lot of weakness
across the board i interestingly enough when i was in Asia, witnessed oil shortages firsthand.
So I wasn't in Bangladesh, I was in Thailand, and we were driving mopeds or scooters around. And
if you'd go to get gas, you'd have to sit in line for like an hour to two hours just to get gas.
So I mean, I witnessed, you know, the oil impacts firsthand. And, you know, I know that a lot of
people have been talking about oil, but, you know, the BB team, all the analysts and I have been talking about,
you know, long oil since $60 and everybody thought it was going to $40. So,
I think we have some, you know, I think we're, we should be able to talk about it.
So, just talking about oil, I mean, oil, you know, if they're not careful, if oil gets above 105
here, you know, there's probably definitely room,
not probably, there's most certainly going to be room for new highs if you're able to get above
the supply region. Gold finally looks like it's rolled over. Obviously, I didn't see it happening
live, but, you know, gold finally got its, you know, rollover and, you know, not expecting
anything special out of precious metals, truthfully, either silver or gold for a significant period of time.
You know, they had their like once in a generation move to the upside.
And I'm just kind of really not interested in that trade anymore.
Looking at crypto, back to crypto rather.
Yeah, Bitcoin is looking to do just exactly what it did.
And I don't think you overcomplicate it. I think you keep it super simple. You play the levels.
I look at VIX and volatility. There's still room to the upside. You know, just this relentless
grind higher is not indicative of a top. It's actually more indicative of what's going to
happen, which is a blow off. Generally speaking, we don't get these, you know, this slow unwinding and volatility,
um, that does not, uh, result in a move to the upside in a meaningful way.
And to your point, Wabi, I think that, you know, instead of people getting down about,
you know, X, Y, Z and two marrying a bag, I want to talk about that.
I want to talk about people marrying a bag i want to talk about that i want to talk about people
marrying a bag and i put something out on my timeline um i was a big proponent of clean spark
all through 23 24 20 uh not really much of 25 um and not really much right now but you know i
was long clean spark in 23 in October of 23 from like $4.
I rode it up to like $22 or $24, wherever it went.
And then subsequently saw it roll over down to $10, $8.
And yet, sure, it made another move up.
But to all the guys that are big proponents of the compute and the mining space,
one of the brethren, i.e. of the compute and the mining space, one of the brethren,
i.e. CleanSpark within your space, printed an identical picture as to what Cypher and Iron are doing right now.
Follow price, right?
Those are very, very, very fragile structures.
Thin moves up, big consolidation period at the highs, lack of
interest clearly with, you know, inability to go set new higher highs. And that leads to, you know,
it's like a, it's, you know, heavy top and, you know, very, very weak base, you know, leads to
it toppling over. And I want to be very mindful to the people that are listening. You know,
I'm sure most people have heard certain personalities on this space
be very bullish about their macro analysis and yada, yada, yada, yada.
You know, if you didn't ride iron up from what was like 10 bucks,
eight bucks to where it went to 70, I just, you know,
and you didn't sell at that point,
I don't know what you're looking for right now.
You know, big moves like that need rebalancing.
They need, you know, opportunities to, you know, distribute, which they've just done.
They're probably entering into an imbalance phase to the downside.
And then after that imbalance phase, you need to put in a prolonged reaccumulation phase.
Just kind of like how the markets work, befall price.
So, I mean, I just want to be very cognizant just to the broader picture, you know, indices,
i.e. the ES, the NASDAQ and the Dow are all sitting at exactly at their 12-month value as
of this morning. And they're very, very, very, like, it's just so such an important level you know if smp loses 63
here you know you easily target 59 um off the top of my head i can actually go grab the exact
numbers here but you know like i said you know to to to the point it's you know it's kind of make
it or break it here and i i'm not just saying that as like every moment to make it or break it but
i mean this is kind of what i've been looking for for quite some time now. And it looks like
we're finally getting the breakdown. But yeah, I mean, just across the board, you know, like I said,
jumping back on over the indices where I'm kind of targeting, you know, the NQ could come down to
2100, the YM or the Dow futures could come down to 43,000. And, you know, it's another good,
you know, roughly five to 10% move down, depending on which one you're looking at.
And I want to be mindful that there's will be opportunity. I don't think that, you know, now
is you should be in the mindset of like, you know, it's all over because we will get to that point
where everybody's in that, you know, same kind of frame of mind where they're expecting just obliteration and nuclear war. And like,
you're going to hear it all. I mean, you're going to hear it all like crypto going to zero.
Nothing is meaningful. It doesn't generate any money, yada, yada, yada. You know, everything's
useless, whatever. I mean, you're going to hear it. It's going to happen soon. You hear it every
time. I don't think we're there quite yet. You know, I think that as we went from peak euphoria, you then enter into, you know,
complacency and then you enter into disbelief and doubt. And then thereafter, you know, comes peak
fear and peak fear is that opportunity like Wabi was talking about for, you know, generation,
younger generations to get discounted assets. And I, you know, I want to be very,
very mindful that, you know, I've been heavy cash for a significant period of time. I mean,
I've been heavy cash, but on derivatives and options and my trading account, I mean, I've been
shorting, obviously, if you've been listening to Spaces for quite some time now, but I'm kind of
starting to enter into the mindset like here soon, right?
I don't think right, just as of right now, based off of what I've told you guys, it's the opportunity to be buying.
But I think that you should be ready at a moment's notice to pull the trigger if you need to.
So that's kind of where I'm at.
I don't want to be, again, marrying bags. I mentioned that on these spaces quite a bit where, you know, everybody had expectations and, you know, going into the bear market the last cycle was going to do well this cycle.
And probably 99% of those guesses, you know, completely underperformed and probably even underperformed Bitcoin.
So for crypto and alts in particular, I just want to wait and see what's like new and doing well.
You know, Hyperliquid is a whole other beast in itself.
It's completely decoupled versus Bitcoin.
And if you want to believe in the space, it's probably the name that makes sense.
If you're looking for exposure now to be getting into as it's been very, very, very resilient.
I mean, it's up 80% off of its lows that it set at the beginning of the year.
And Bitcoin went on and set new lows, right?
So, I mean, that's...
And it's not like Hyperliquid's a little shitcoin.
You know, it's in the top 15.
It's a big name.
But it's probably some form of reaccumulation,
if I were to guess.
We're probably heading to go set
some form of higher low,
right around 30 would be my guess.
And if 30 doesn't hold, then you're going would be my guess. And if 30 doesn't hold,
then you're going to be targeting 20. And if 20 doesn't hold, then you're, I mean, I don't even want to know what happens after that. But I'd be very surprised if Hyperliquid sets a new low,
below 20, to be honest. So that's kind of what I'm looking at across the board. Still short Tesla,
still short DraftKings, still short Quantum, short
the mining stocks, compute stocks.
Yeah, I mean, I'm looking for short opportunities and long opportunities, at least from a trading
perspective right here in Bitcoin.
We are still technically within the range.
But like I said, you lose $66,000 meaningfully, you're going to be taking out the lowest $60,000.
It's literally replication of what we saw at the end of the year to the beginning of this year.
So that's kind of what I got.
Glad to be here.
Missed you guys.
Yeah, the weekly close below the April 2021 high.
Dude, over the last few years, anytime we've had a weekly close below that,
if you remember like the 2024 range, we went on to test the lower range,
which would be 53 to 55.
Wouldn't that be ironic, man?
If we test those lower bounds and then just range again.
Oh, man, that would suck.
If you remember the lows of the bear market of last cycle
and in 2018 what happened each time was a super super low volatility environment and that's just
the and that's the big guys and if you look to the most amount of volume that's done is in the
bear market and it's at the lows it is not in the bull market at the highs
a lot of people do not see that and they don't understand that and what that is is that's the
big boys the big players saying hey we're going to set endless limit orders here we're going to
pin price we're not going to move it higher and no retail is going to bid it up because everybody's
freaking out and we're just going to get we're just going to accumulate as much as we can and
then when you see that low volatility environment and i mean when prices at nemic it's probably a
really good sign the bottom's in yeah yeah um you know at least like there's some confidence
that maybe tau is that second all coin that sees new highs uh next cycle outside of hype
i think it's good to have like one other coin um i also do like the structure on monad at least
now it's just been making higher lows um since it bottomed down in february with bitcoin um and they do have some some cash
runway so i guess this thing is just going to replicate what sui did when it first launched
where it's just big spike up and then it takes a while to actually bottom out and then went on to to be a good performer um that's kind of like the
other token too because on chain man on chain is on chain is really strange man um like if i look
at something like troll for example right and i don't think pepe is gonna die so if pepe doesn't die what does
that mean for something like troll right which is kind of like another big meme um but we all know
right during moments of uncertainty in the market even if the overall market is bottomed out you
still have these events where all coins could effectively specific all coins could go to zero we saw that happen with mantra ticker om um
that ticker destroyed right as bitcoin started to pump off of its low
and that was a coin that was trading at a significantly higher market cap.
That's the thing, man.
Gosh, that's the thing, dude.
So it's really difficult, man.
That's why it's like, all right, hype.
And then it's Tau.
No, they don't really have any VCs or anything like that.
And it's proof of work.
It doesn't really have that, like, token supply overhang as all these VC coins do.
Or uncertain liquidity, like, for some of these on-chain tickers, right?
So, yeah.
I'm trying to do some, like, F.A., man.
But it's really difficult because, like, projects that you could have been bullish on months ago, there's just no activity from these respective teams.
I'm trying to look at things like virtual, for example, but that's just so dependent on ETH, man.
for example uh but that's just so dependent on eth man and eth we saw last cycle it took a while
for it to get the wind behind its sails um so if you were to grab a bag on virtuals man like
maybe you'll probably hold on to that for some time before any substantial move to the upside
you would also need moves from like nvidia and
palantir and all the other mega cap tech to start trending towards new highs as well
for these things to to get moving again man um to crypto these altcoins outside of
outside of things like hyper liquid they're really just momentum driven plays
and if you look at when some of these tickers moved they only moved when certain things were
happening in trad fi um and we trade volume right like if you're an astute market participant and
you're not drinking the kool-aid off of these narratives then you know the best thing to trade
is not ai it's not memes it's where volume is is going right it just so happens that ai and memes
is where volume was going in crypto over the last few years and now it's going on over to hyper
liquid and we saw things off of the bottom off of 2022, things like Rollbit, right?
Things that come out of the woodwork and just shock people.
So what's going to be that?
I guess that hope that makes people enthusiastic, right?
Off of the bottom of 22, we saw Bonk come out of nowhere.
It hit like 100 mil plus market cap.
100 mil plus market cap.
It took Seoul from eight bucks to 30.
It took Seoul from $8 to $30.
Then we saw Pepe going from $0 to $2 billion in market cap from April to May of 2023.
Things like that, right?
What are the assets that are going to replicate that kind of enthusiasm in the market?
It's probably going to be some new tickers
right um because as we've seen even during these conditions where it's like super boring and stuff
um we see how quickly soul foundation or e foundation can throw a couple of shekels into
into a chart and just take it to the upside and just shock people
and bring enthusiasm into the market again.
So I just have to say about that.
Matt, what's going on, bro?
How are you?
What is going on, dude?
We now have a few select names.
Intradify breaking down, bro.
Iron, specifically.
Nibius is also breaking down, man.
And now I'm in drawdown with this Solaris position, man.
But it is what it is, I guess.
I guess I'm a community member.
Hold on, I'm almost home.
Give me five minutes if you want to go to someone else first.
Okay, okay.
I can jump in, Wabi.
Yeah, go ahead, man. What's up, Ghossi? How are you?
What's up, man? I'm glad you're getting better, man.
Yeah, dude.
Man, your price target for Iron is right there, dude.
I think you were eyeing 25 to 30 30 weren't you like for short-term uh
price action yeah i mean like my first level was 28 that's that was my first level but i don't like
i really is just one play i actually was vocal about another short that i had which was onds
i i talked about in in your space like a couple of weeks back
and in other spaces.
I actually posted the call on the Nest.
So that one played out really, really, really nicely.
It was a good short on that one.
But I just wanted to start with that people need to understand that in the
short term, like fear dominates fundamentals. Just wanted to start with that phrase. And
I want to talk something that I'm seeing because if you guys take a look at the Microsoft chart,
just to give an example, like Microsoft and Amazon basically are 6%
above the 2021 highs, right?
And I think we all agree that since 2021 to now, both of those companies have increased
their revenues, quote unquote, their fundamentals.
So, I mean, what would happen if we retest those highs,
the 2021 highs on Microsoft and Amazon, just to give an example?
And Nike already couldn't hold the April Tarrant sell-off support.
So it already broke down that.
Just to give another example, besides the tech sector,
of good fundamental companies
that are having trouble on that. So on Microsoft and Amazon, if we don't hold the 2021 support,
it's going to get ugly and we'll go below the same way Bitcoin did all the way back in 2022,
that we went below the previous 2017 all-time high. So I'm expecting that to eventually
happen on companies like Microsoft or Amazon.
And if that were to happen, I don't think Amazon and Microsoft
are going to reclaim all-time highs in a long, long time.
And that would coincide with the SPX targets that I have been talking since December.
I'm posting about it.
The 6100 is my first target, but if what I just talked about in Amazon and Microsoft,
just to mention a few, it happens.
There's actually a gap at 5700, which coincides with the mid-range of my high timeframe parallel going all the
way back to 2021. And I don't want to sound like a bear, bear, bear, but that's what I'm
seeing on the charts right now. But my highest conviction, high growth name right now is NIO, like the EV car company. So I'm expecting
NIO to outperform Bitcoin. I'm expecting NIO to perform all of these different growth names.
And we could even have a pullback on NIO, let's say to around like 420 area or something like that if the whole market dumps.
But that will still create like a higher low on a high time frame.
And yeah, like I have been comparing NIO with a lot of different charts,
like Bitcoin, iron, whatever you want to call it.
And yeah, man, that's my call.
And I'm saying it right now before it happens. Bitcoin, iron, whatever you want to call it. And yeah, man, that's my call.
I'm saying it right now before it happens.
But this will take time. It would be like a multi-month swing trade, in my opinion.
And just to finish, there's another company that I'm watching for a short.
I have been watching it.
We rejected from a key uh upslope and resistance channel which is called vrt so i i'm looking to for that one
hey ghosty what is uh what's going on with that glass manufacturer in colombia that you liked
yeah i'm not sure i checked up on it yeah no tgls i'm i'm waiting like i'm waiting
for a really really key level which is about like 25 30 like i love the fundamentals on the company
but i'm getting you know that's that's how i get greedy i get greedy waiting for levels that maybe
i don't get you know and I prefer to miss a play
than position myself incorrectly because I recently, I mean, like one play I actually
mispositioned myself was hymns.
I bought hymns, like I had like a $30 average.
I mean, went all the way down to 15, you know, like that was like my recent biggest, at least
for a moment, like paper loss, because once it spiked, like I just got out and just got a small loss.
So that was something I, yeah, like position is really important.
And TGLS, I'm waiting to see if we get like a sub $1.5 billion valuation.
dollar valuation oh damn and speaking of hims it's finally uh trading in the teens which was like
my first area of interest man i do like uh like the prospect of hims because i think
i think looks maxing is just going to be up and to the right for the next decade, I think.
I have my thoughts on that.
I think it's like AI in 2022.
You just need Meta to stop crapping the bed, honestly.
I think that's what's going to take down, like, all the things.
Bobby, are you saying that the market could use a HEMS prescription?
I would assume so, yeah.
Yeah, I would assume so.
I don't really care what a CEO says or any of that stuff or what his political views are.
I think that's like stupid.
Look at the guy, the guy with the hair from Palantir.
Dude, he's called people some of the most obscene terms
and the stock is just up and to the right
or was up and to the right when it bottomed out.
So there is going to be a lot of demand for this stuff.
Again, I have my thoughts on that.
I think Lux Maxing is going to be like an AI wave when the next market move to the upside
occurs, whether we fully bottom out before Kevin Warsh
or after Kevin Warsh,
I think it's maybe a name to watch out for, really,
to play to the upside.
And the market cap is at like four bill.
And I remember when I was looking at Hood,
dude, Hood was in a range for like a year, man.
After it bottomed out in late 22, it ranged for like a year.
So it wouldn't shock me to see him just kind of do the same after it fully bottoms out.
Yeah, I agree with you, man. I like him too. I really like him too.
But I'm not sure if we're going to like, I mean, with what I think is going to happen in the market,
like there's a gap below. I don't know if we're going to like, I'm doubting if that gap is going
to be like the higher low on a high timeframe. And I think we could potentially go all the way down
to $12, which is a key support. support i mean if we get the flush on the on
the spx and that's fine oh yeah yeah but in terms of positioning like i don't want to like i i try
not to experience like big percentage drawdowns and as much as i can so i there's there's still
too much potential downside if i buy now, it goes to a level.
It's like 36% downside.
Yeah, so I don't know.
I'm not going to touch it now, to be honest.
I mean, I could see it go down to like $8.
Like $8 to $12. um like eight to twelve um there is going to be a point where it's like
all right you have to you have to weigh your returns in the immediate short term against
the longer period of time and if you're seeing the way trends are right now in society hymns is
like the one of like the ultimate positions to ride that trend which is um we are
going into a world that is hypergamous it hypergamy is up into the right and um if you're a man and
you are not maximizing um what you have and you're able-bodied then your potential as far as
making money opportunities and and all facets whether it's dating career um it's going to be
limited if you don't maximize what you have in your young man um or a young adult, whatever it is you want to call that. But that's good.
I was going to say, Wabi, when you say him's prescription,
are we referring to like Ozempic?
Are we referring to Viagra, TRT?
Yeah, everything, man.
The blue pill.
Everything.
Yeah, the blue pill.
Viagra, that's the blue pill.
Yeah, the blue pill.
No, everything.
Because there's an Ozempic pill now and i was looking on
their webs there's no zempic that's the main thing they're advertising no no that's that's
the peach pill we need the blue pill there's there's there's there's everything dude there's
even like finasteride and minoxidil that they sell i don't even know what that's hair loss right
yeah so that's i'll speak i'll talk from firsthand experience that is great that is great which for minoxidil yeah it's a combination the combination get the topical
don't don't get the pill because the topical is like is one one hundredth of the blood concentration
is the pill uh okay gotcha gotcha now i was gonna say is anyone like is the glp1 pill like effective
like is that are people on that?
I've never even, I didn't even know there was a pill for GLP-1 now.
Did you guys see that?
No, it's all, the best things to take to enhance your body
are always going to be injectables, man.
Injectables is the way, man.
It's always been the way um but but i know i know
i know he wants to position for the peptides for the peptides i mean i i know they bought a
like manufacturing facility uh starting 2025.
i i have no idea but i know know Kathy Wood has her ETF,
the biohacking one, Genome or something like that.
I forget the ticker.
But that one's in a – that's just a trend up and to the right, man.
But, Evan, it's like – have you ever taken BCAAs like branched
chain amino acids?
Uh, I've heard of that.
Yeah.
I think I definitely have years ago.
Yeah.
It's just a, just a powder man with like vitamins and minerals and stuff.
But, um, if you were to take that, right.
A powder compared to like taking an IV, um's it's night and day dude when you take an
iv you feel like superman and dude if you're not doing that stuff then like i don't think you're
living life to the fullest it's like life before and after caffeine wabi what stack are you running right now?
Peptides, I'm not on yet.
I'm not on yet.
But... Well, Wobby, you cut out.
You said you're not on gear right now.
More on peptides.
But with peptides, it's...
Peptides are a different ballgame, man, because it's so many compounds.
And it's a lot of strange stuff compobulated together, whether it's like testosterone and stuff like that's just basic stuff.
Right. And for people that say, like, oh, why are you talking about testosterone all that stuff
like dude you understand alcohol and tobacco kills a lot more people than taking testosterone
america is the only place in the entire planet where you can't buy testosterone over the counter
um when you get really sick what do they what do they give you? They give you testosterone, right? After surgery, what do they give you?
Testosterone.
Temporarily?
Temporarily, yeah, yeah, yeah, for you to recover.
I didn't know that.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
They give you some testosterone.
America's the only place where you can't bite over the counter,
which is, like, super, super weird.
Like, America's the home for all businesses that kill
you like fast food if you look at like statistics for for like heart disease
when I was in they're all linked to like food bro like your mouth is what kills you in America
um and then like people want to bash testosterone which is like rejuvenated people's
lives and has honestly improved life of quality um more so than like any other drug it's it's it's
really strange man um and it comes from the same people that tell you that eggs and red beef are
bad for you that they raise your cholesterol but then they say that honey nut cheerios is part of a well-balanced well-balanced but rfk rfk is changing
well yeah yeah but it's probably i was just gonna say the thing about trt i didn't realize this like
somebody like clav is completely infertile like it makes you infertile i didn't even realize that
that's what i've been reading about it no because, because Clav takes Tremblone, dude.
And Tremblone is bullshort testosterone.
There's no way he took Tremblone.
That guy is, like, 120 pounds.
He did.
No, no, no.
Dude, Clav last year, dude, Clav was, like, 220, 230 pounds and, like, solid.
That's the thing.
Like, Clav now is a sack of crap compared to what he
used to be he was huge um he was a gym cell right but speaking of clav like dude he's just he's just
the guy who's on the spectrum and said hey i'm just gonna i'm just gonna look smacks and get
my looks as as far as far ahead as possible
and see where I can go.
And he's making a ton of money off of it,
and he's proving that we live in a hypergamous society mostly.
But the TRT does make you infertile, though.
That's what I've been reading.
Is that not true, Wavi?
It's kind of ironic because you would think women would want a guy that's fertile,
but this guy, Clav, he's never going to be able to have children but it's
it's it's it's it's tremblone tremblone makes you infertile because it's bull shark testosterone but
regular testosterone does not make you infertile it's when you start messing around with different
compounds um like tremblone mastodrol stuff like that right which involves
bull shark testosterone um then there's also eq ecopoise which is horse testosterone um that is
when you start messing with your dna and stuff and like it actually affects your mind it actually
does affect your mind your body turns into a microwave
have you tried no tropics
i i have not man i have not but i know that's like what relaxes you and stuff right that's like
it's like a calming supplement for the brain think are you talking about like lion's mane ghosty stuff like that i mean yeah i
mean like nootropics contain lion's mane and other different mushrooms but yeah you gotta be careful
with that because i mean a lot of it's not like backed by science it's can be a little food gazy
uh i'd be careful no no i don't take them, but I know they exist. I just try to eat clean, and that's how I get my focus.
Yeah, also, cholesterol medication, for all you that are listening,
is the number one reason for dementia and Alzheimer's.
So just so you know, your brain is made up of cholesterol.
So when the doctor tells you to take cholesterol medication, I think twice.
Maybe do some fasting
and uh and stop eating like shit yeah i think that's kind of been known for a while i mean
i've been taking fish oil that's kind of i kind of like how that that's some subtle effects i
don't know if you guys have any experience with omega-3s we have our resident doctor bro dr raffi i'm gonna send him an invite to speak bro
doc come on up here man pill us you should uh pill us on uh on uh on supplements man that
do you mind if we get to the markets now, or do you want to become all pharmacists?
Well, there's a lot of money in pharmaceuticals, David.
It's far more entertaining, too.
Maybe both.
Maybe both.
Cozy come.
What's up, David?
How was your weekend?
I'm getting up every couple hours.
My little one is... She's not doing great and she's uncomfortable.
And then today I'm moving.
I cannot, um, just headaches, drama, but I feel so badly because I'm not a good salesman.
I feel terrible.
Morgan Stanley comes out 30 days after
I told everyone on my subscriber
space, degross, this is
the second part of the war.
We had the summer
12 days
and then we had the
we had
the eye of the storm.
How did anyone think this was not going to be serious?
And now they're telling their people, maybe you should lighten up on stuff.
These people are disgusting, in my opinion.
And a great, excellent short, in my opinion.
Schwab, Morgan, Goldman, Bank of America, Merrill Lynch.
Morgan, Goldman, Bank America, Merrill Lynch.
They're not even at, they're below their peak in 2000 in the COVID out.
So I, you know, I was driving, I had to get new keys.
The new place is okay.
I've got a section for the YouTube that we're going to do.
I've got a porch so the dog can relieve whenever she wants and it faces in the sun.
So it's great for her.
But I just joined.
Has anyone said they think finally it's time to transfer the A to an E, the dollar cost average to dollar cost exit?
Has anybody on this space said that that's a good idea? Or are people just saying, let's try to buy more, borrow more?
What's been going on from before I got here? I don't think any single person that spoke has
said buy anything yet, actually. We've just been talking about Viagra and TRT and what else? By the way, I put up in the nest Cathie Wood's ArcG.
It's a disaster.
It's down 75%, and it's trying to find an all-time low.
So I'm not sure what's the constructive thing about it.
The fundamental technology?
Wonderful.
David, what would you buy right now?
The exact same thing I've been saying since the first time I ever came on this base.
Things that are going up in price.
XLE, XLE, XLE.
I don't like XLE because it's not going up on its own.
It's going on in the wake of the greatest, and I had some XLE.
Not a big position on the bombs, but we had a 50 plus
percent rise in oil. Anybody who's buying energy and thinks it's their genius that made the money
should really consult with Donald Trump. When the Venezuelan first boat was seized, oil boat,
I said, I'm not short anymore. it was down in the low 50s i mean
this could be mid 50s because trump was doing something i don't know what he was doing
if you've made money and energy you didn't make that you made some most of it was policy
that policy's got to fade do you know what's going on in the philippines you know what's
with their currency do you know all these countries in Asia, they're running out of fuel.
They're going to go substitution, work from home, remote school.
They're going to shut down all of their jets.
Hey, David, I was recently in Thailand, and I have firsthand experience.
I mentioned it to everybody on the space.
Firsthand in Thailand?
I was there.
No, no, no, no, no, no.
When they talk about it now.
You're getting a special royal Thai massage now, are you?
I'm just saying, watch your language in public.
Easy now, David.
Easy now, David.
Exactly.
I know that's not your thing, but other people may not.
I know, I know, I know.
And I saw a lot of old rich white men
blowing their 401ks out there too if you know what i mean they're trying to get the young
i'll get the youth yeah i was there and we so we drove scooters around everywhere and at night
when we tried to get gas it was an hour to two hour long wait to get gas when was this
it was last week okay where do you think it is now it's worse i mean i was
there for gasoline prometheus you were driving scooters around thailand man yeah it's like
literally gta in real life like if you have been waiting for gta 6 for the past two years yeah if
you're if you've been waiting for gta 6 for the past two years just Grand theft auto? Yeah, if you've been waiting for GTA 6 for the past two years, just go
drive in Thailand and you'll get
first-hand experience. For me, where were you driving
a scooter in Thailand? What city? What area?
Bangkok. Oh my
God. Everywhere.
Bangkok. Okay, getting
back to money,
do you think the energy
situation is going to improve
in the massively importing countries?
Do you wonder why gold is going down?
Because these people use all their savings to try to get out of the local currency.
Do you think that's continuing in India?
You think this wedding season is going to have a lot of gold?
Or is it going to have more silver?
Come, come come come monster so you got to watch
these prices now what are prices that are going up that are a little more durability i mean
microsoft coming down like it did as we've been talking about since just before its all-time high at 555, has massively underformed its biggest vendor, NVIDIA.
But NVIDIA has massively underperformed the SMH.
So you could not go much longer without IGV dragging down its biggest customer.
It didn't hurt that NVIDIA's second biggest customer,
co-CEO, was arrested for $2.5 billion worth of chip fraud.
That's 17% and 10% of the book.
And if NVIDIA is at its lowest,
divided by SMH since May of 2024,
when they started getting rid of QT, $420 billion of QT reduction
on June 1 announced in May. Five-year yield peaks in May of 2024. NVIDIA is back at that level,
and everyone's using NVIDIA semi-exhaust, tech exhaust, to buy what's in semis
because the institutions which run most of the money
have not met yet to authorize their investors
to reduce their tech exposure,
to reduce their semiconductor exposure.
And that is going to likely start changing
once we conclude the month tomorrow.
Then all the meetings are going to have afterwards, hedge funds are going to know this, and they're front-running the selling of the
deleveraging or the de-risking or de-grossing, plus the shifting from the highest beta to equity income. It's a slow, gradual process.
And there's some liquidity that the hedge funds provide on the downside.
They'll get short 100,000 shares and they'll call a fund and they'll say, I can take 100,000.
I'll pay you two bucks less than the current price.
And they've been selling it on the way down.
So people could offload a ton of paper.
And I've been begging people, and you all know it,
including you, Evan, to allow me to articulate
an alternate view than just DCA in.
And now you've got one day left for Bitcoin
to get above $74,434 and not be a nine-month lower close,
it'll be a higher high
than the second and third quarter,
and it'll be a lower low
than the second and third quarter.
And that means that you have
a bearish engulfing nine-month trade.
That's a lot of distribution.
That could be up to 27 months
of distribution.
Did you see strategy today?
What are they going to have to do
with their
with their STRC
that he was on
with Carl Quintanilla the other day?
Talk about it. And then Carl
Quintanilla, who hates Donald Trump
with the heat of enough suns to make
a super massive black hole
he says oh yeah it's like a money market
oh no that was Brian
it was Brian Sullivan interviewing him
and he said
is it like a money market
and he said yeah yeah yeah that's it
they started STRC at a 9%
coupon and raised it by 25 basis points at every period.
It's now trading at 750 basis points more than treasuries.
That's basically a non-performing asset, which it is.
The asset price continues to go down.
They own Bitcoin at 75K.
It's sitting at 67.
It was down at 65 that's down by ten thousand dollars 12 percent
what's going to stop this what they're going to just buy more coin and get more
buy more stuff at a discount the story's over for all of these things What do you make of the constant advertisement for STRC and all that?
Desperation.
When you have to keep on raising the compensation for something.
You know what it feels like, David?
It feels like Madoff, and he's just trying to keep the Ponzi alive, you know?
I think Madoff had more honor than this guy.
Almost.
No, Madoff was disgusting.
He stole money from Beth Israel Hospital, from Imonides Day School.
It's just so disgusting.
He's just a sole psychopath.
But I think sailors are saying he's down from 543 down to 123.
Is that what it is at the close?
But he's desperate.
He tried to create something. it's 121 44 okay a lot of people are
selling things they have to because they know they're getting margin calls when microsoft is
going down why are people buying and holding as opposed to buying and trading garbage that's of a lower quality on a market
cap on a cash flow basis. And we have the dollar that I've been talking about, how the dollar peaked
at 164.72 on February 25th, 1985. It fell 57% into March 17, 2008.
23 years, it's been rising for 18 years.
It's in a bull market, folks.
And if you look at the 50-year trend line,
which is a lot longer than a presidential cycle,
we're above the 99 price of the last 50 years.
And the 12.5 year, which is the 50 quarter, not the 200 quarter,
that's rising and looks soon to overtake the 200 quarter.
That's a golden engulfing, and that's a golden cross on a quarterly basis,
as well as we're two-tenths of a,
like two basis points or something like that
away from a daily.
But you have the lowest volatility ever.
You have all of the timeframes,
daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly,
all clustered in the same place.
You have the alpha divided by volatility is a disaster it's not it hasn't
been moving and the volatility is collapsing and now if you're a dealer and you're short the vol
and you're getting paid nothing and it's melting up you know in a in a not long period of time, you're up 5%. How is that going to help the free cash flow of techsporters,
the S&P 500, the NASDAQ?
And then you have all these emerging market currencies
that literally have no shot of recovering their currency.
I mean, every day that prices are stable, it's a disaster.
When prices rise, it's worse.
So you're going to see
a degradation. Like people say,
oh, NVIDIA's at the S&P 500 multiple.
Well, I don't trust the
earnings of either, and I expect the
NVIDIA multiple to go way down.
Microsoft, Supermicro,
have you seen CoreWeave lately?
Folks, when Microsoft was leading lower,
it was your signal
it's like the guy
he's in a flood
and a policeman comes by the house and says
you've got to evacuate there's a flood
he says no I'm going to trust in Jesus
and then
a boat comes by and he says
I'm not evacuating my house Jesus will save me
and then a helicopter comes by and says come on jump on the ladder and he says no I'm not evacuating my house. Jesus will save me. And then a helicopter comes by and says, come on, jump on the ladder. And he says,
no, no, Jesus is going to save me. And then he drowns and he's
up in heaven. And he says, why didn't Jesus save me? To St. Peter.
St. Peter said, who do you think sent the cop, the boat, and the helicopter?
I've been screaming literally at the top of my
lungs, getting sore and hoarse,
begging you to look at the concept of maybe it's not a great idea to only look at buying at every
opportunity. And now we know most of the people were never doing it. They were just part of a team.
They've run out of money and now they're being liquidated because they went from high-quality names to low-quality names.
Druckenmiller is a similar victim.
He told us on February 25th that he's short the dollar, short the bond,
long Korea, long the won, which is at a new low,
Brazil, Japan's down 15%.
Folks, you should trust price more than anyone, including me.
Everyone, including me, is subordinate to price.
And people have been convinced an 80% drawdown is tolerable.
This is an insanity of no equal.
People will back.
And like, what kind of brainwashed in Stockholm Syndrome have you had?
Wait, an 80% drawdown on microstrategy, you mean?
On Bitcoin.
It's already on Bitcoin.
Microstrategy peaked on November 21, 2024.
It was 10 and a half months later before it peaked.
And it was 10 months later on September 18th when we got a signal that it was the first day that Bitcoin divided by its own volatility
didn't go up, two weeks later on October 2nd, that was enough. We got short in October,
in the January of 2000, February 2nd in 2025, when Bitcoin spent two weeks without making
new high while the NASDAQ did. The NASDAQq is less volatile it shouldn't go up more than bitcoin and we covered on uh april 7th at 4 29 a.m
in my pinned uh in my pin tweets in my uh excuse me uh in my highlights it shows it right there
i included grant cardone and everyone else in the crew well let me uh it's all right but let
me ask you a million dollar question can. Can the S&P 500 hold 6,000 this year?
Could it go to a new high now and go lower?
No, no. Is it going to hold 6,000? That's my question.
Well, what's the order?
If the Fed decided to take their rates to zero and stop the dollar from going up,
they could do it, and then next year will go to 3,000.
It's what's the order. We have Greenspan who let the NASDAQ fall 57%,
57% in less than 10 months, because he held the line. He says, I'm not easing to protect this
inflation. Go look at these charts, NASDAQ divided by S&P. You went up 600% on the NASDAQ divided by the S&P
from October 12, 1990 over 491 weeks
until March 10th of 2024,
two weeks later, the S&P peeps.
I don't know what they're going to do,
but I know it's irrelevant in my work.
We have appointments with much, much, much, much, much, much lower prices
because everyone thinks everything's fine.
Everyone thinks these are real.
The economy structurally is fundamentally sound.
And we're gaining huge market share from...
Who wants to invest in a Qatari natural gas field
where it has five years' worth of damage with one missile?
When you can come to america and you pay
a little more for the boat but you don't have force majeure how do you buy gas from russia you
know europe just announced they're they're not even voting on the ban of russian gas
or the price caps anymore it's a joke
is the market going up it looks like it's going lower is the war accelerating yes will ending the
war decelerate the acceleration causes short term yeah but is there a problem if the dollar goes up
if the dollar continues its 18-year trend despite all of the nonsense. Remember, this started on February 25th, 1985.
It's 41 years later.
And they've been suppressing the dollar ever since,
and it's been hurting Main Street.
And that is over.
It's over.
Could they do one last,
they just got rid of a trillion of QT,
they threw in a half a trillion of non-QEQE.
And then they've got another 350 basis points they can cut.
Now, if they cut 100 basis points,
the speed of a decline in the NASDAQ,
which, remember, the NASDAQ,
the elevator's here if you're using it.
The elevator's here if you're using it.
We're just waiting.
We're just waiting.
Don't wait for us.
Okay.
So, if they cut to 3%,
2 7 8ths,
and you're earning 5.5% on a treasury mortgage, residential, government credit step-up, so everyone can go bankrupt and you get all of your money.
That's 5.5%.
You borrow 275, you're making 100% on your cash flow.
That is completely unsustainable. Those rates will
have to come down. And the lower they go, the more it is. We'd said before the first series
of rate cuts in 24, they need to do more than the 25. And it would steepen the curve and help the
banks and lift up the market and it'd be go-go. But we said after the mid-cycle, because the curve
is no longer inverted, you won't be able to steepen very much.
Remember, Greenspan took us, I mean, excuse me, Powell took us from minus 109 in August of 23 to plus 73.2.
182, 183.
Very stimmy.
Very good for banks.
Go look at J.P. Morgan.
Go look at Berkshire Hathaway.
Go look at Bank America.
It's not even above the peak in 2020.
How are people not going to say,
let me short the calls?
Not advice, folks.
It's sloppy.
And we had, on July 14th, 1981,
a Fed funds rate of 22% and 0.36, 22.36.
They were able to see, and the bond was 1,392 that day.
Here it is, here it is, your elevator's here.
Don't wait for us.
So you had an inverted curve, 844 basis points,
and they steepened the curve, funds to to bonds by over 1,100 basis points.
How delicious is that for banks over the last period of time?
Well, where are we?
We've wasted the cuts to pump up the stock market.
We've got very little left.
And once they get closer to lower, you'll have so much carry trade buildup.
lower, you'll have so much carry trade buildup. There won't be anything that could stop the
melting of volatility in mortgages and treasuries other than a massive spending program, which you
know isn't going to be allowed over the next three years in such a tight market. I mean,
you know, political reality. So I'm interested in doing what's doing well.
How about utilities?
They're not going to light up all the data centers,
but even lighting up a fraction of them,
we barely have enough electricity.
And how much more electricity are we going to need because we're going to go
from gasoline cars to robo-taxis, which will be much cheaper.
And the money that Japan brought here, they gave NextEra money.
They didn't give it to I-R-E-N, which is probably around $10 billion right now,
whereas NX-N-E-E, not advice on either, is about $200 billion, the largest in utilities. And they, I believe, got a 10
gigawatt buy
funded by Japan. I just
don't think with Oracle down $300
that anyone
who thinks that if Oracle is cutting back
then other people won't.
So I don't think this IREN
doesn't give up the decimal. I don't think this I-R-E-N doesn't give up the decimal.
I don't think it can stay above $9.99.
And you have people who I think
aren't giving you the full picture
of their involvement with the company.
I'm not particularly labeling anyone.
It's just my opinion.
But gravity is attaching to these high flyers
and equity is evaporating and the system is getting
more leveraged it's not becoming deleveraged there's no proactive selling before the equity
no it's the equity is evaporating and the system is getting more leverage and we're getting
we're in a bear market excuse me we're in a we're in a um in the NASDAQ.
We just got a correction in Micron just today alone, or 971.
I mean, the story is a problem.
Look at all these things.
When Microsoft, which is kind of the spine of the market,
it was $4.5 trillion.
It was $4.5 trillion.
Now it's down below $3 trillion.
NVIDIA is now gone from over $5 to under $4 trillion.
Microsoft over $4 to under $3.
We're losing trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars
in equity and gold.
These are things that are causing leverage to build up in the system.
And people
took no opportunity to listen to me, to look, not to do what I say, but to actually notice what's
going on using history and relationships. If Microsoft is the biggest spender on CapEx
or in the upper crust, then these companies are saying,
oh, I'm going to buy a lot of my stock back.
They're leveraging up.
Systems that are leveraged have less resiliency.
They have more frailty.
Not testosterone.
Frailty.
So we're seeing things.
It's never too late to do the right thing
when you still have capital. Everything should be gradual. I always say, look every week if you
have only no more time. Make your adjustments into what's working from what's not. But Microsoft has
been doing a terrible job, one of the greatest companies in the history of the world remember the s p 500 is x and everything inside it accelerates lower just at a different time frame
the s p always outperforms every company eventually because every company including
amazon according to jeff bezos will eventually go bankrupt but the capital stays behind
will eventually go bankrupt, but the capital stays behind
a performance. How many companies failed after dot-com?
How many companies will fail from much higher valuations now than
then? MicroStrategy, below its recent
low, below 99, losing its next decimal, will that make
you comfortable? Will you join
the religion called what's working now with me i think that's
david that's a huge signal if it drops below 100 that's a big are you kidding me that it has to go
down a full 80 before it's important isn't it important now is deeply concerning but it goes
from like an 8 out of 10 and concerning to like a 10 out of 10.
Well, how about when they have to raise the dividend every single month since SDRT came in to keep it at the price of stability?
I don't even follow STRC.
That stuff is just annoying.
But I think I would ask you, I mean,'s your view on um how long is this war going
to go on for is it going to be i don't know and i don't care because the reason that microsoft is
down is partly because the war but it was melting before the war the dollar fell for 23 years by
policymakers they had the february 25 when king Fahd of Saudi Arabia is in Washington
being feted by Reagan, and then he's off to the ranch and tells George Bush Sr.,
you know, treat him like a king. And then seven months later, on September 13th, 1985,
according to the former prime minister of Saudi Arabia, of Russia, under Yeltsin,
he said that King Fahd told Sheikh Imani
to pivot from price to share.
And that was oil 30.
Saudi Arabia was pumping 2.1 million barrels
on a 4.3 million barrel quota
on a 10 million barrel capacity,
trying to hold the price up
as the Iran-I War gets priced
in and America has the Dallas TV show, the soap opera, and we do 10 million barrels.
The world starts adapting. And then they go price to share and the Soviet Union fell 1400 days later.
Oil goes from 30 down to $8, down from $40.
Then nine days after that, the Plaza Accords with Jim Baker,
all the countries, worked a week in the currency. So we're at $164.72, February 25, 1985.
And then you go to September 22, 1985.
The dollar is around $140,, down 24, down 15%, and then it goes to 70, with some lifts along the way.
The globalists weakened the dollar, and now people are noticing after the dollar is in an 18-year bull market,
because a couple of people with no money and no government responsiveness to their people,
with no money and no government
responsiveness to their
people?
They're saying it's time to get out
of the dollar? Sure.
Sold to you, buddy. Sold to you.
You know I've been
screaming dollar, dollar, dollar, holler, dollar,
holler, dollar. Where are we?
We're at an 11-month closing monthly high.
Tomorrow's the end of the quarter.
There's always a bull market somewhere, though.
That's my point
let's look for it
let's not avoid it because of storytellers
sure
when you have dollar strength
it annihilates exporters
in favor of importers
do you know what the export value
of the revenue
of XLU is
no tell me it's 2% export value of the revenue of XLU is?
No. Tell me.
It's 2%. If the dollar's going up, would you
rather Nvidia 50
or an XLU 2?
Who's going to get more
hurt by the rise of dollar?
Nvidia.
If Nvidia's got
8%, 10% growth,
and the currency goes up by 10%,
and their 15% export,
their growth rate gets cut in half.
Shouldn't their peg ratio and their multiple get cut in half?
When people said,
Nvidia's only the multiple of the S&P at 20.
Nvidia's multiple shouldn't be 10.
Go back and look at the 80s,
before all the globalism and all the dollar suppression.
You had single digis.
Single digis on Intel and Apple.
You guys are bull market brilliant.
What's his name?
Brad Gerstner.
He started his career the month the Nasdaq bottomed after GFC, November 2008.
And he thinks he's the smartest guy in tech history.
Go try to survive in a minus 83.6 environment in 130 weeks.
Go try to come in in the 70s when the
Nikkei is going up 12 times
in Nikkei in the end terms.
So, yes,
follow what's working. I've always said that.
I try to give you a 1%
lean like a Higgs boson
in the Higgs field. Just a 1%
lean, not advice, but where
I think markets should be going,
where equilibrium is, instead of just, oh no, but where I think markets should be going, where equilibrium is,
instead of just, oh no, I'm going to write it down. How are people, Evan, going to feel?
I'll say if. If Bitcoin gets to $25,000, are people going to be saying, great,
I can finally buy more and it can't go down.
I can finally buy more and it can't go down? That's what a lot of people will say.
That's what a lot of people will say.
Most of them won't actually have any money to do it as they stack their
Satoshis,
whatever.
I think it depends when it hits 25 grand.
Like if it hits that in a few months,
what if it does into the next year?
If it doesn't,
it doesn't or does if it does,
what if it takes up to another year to go down?
Not that I think that I don't think that would be the hardest thing it's it's more about it being at that
price in like two or three years from now because that's you know that's where it doesn't matter
if it gets there it's not stopping there because if it gets there how much faster is it going down
than the nasdaq or the s&p that That's the point. It is a source of funds.
It had been a use of funds for everything.
You could have sold anything
and made a fortune in Bitcoin
in its first from 2009 to 2021.
Right?
Those 12 years.
And then from 2013,
during the European debt crisis,
and the Japanese weakening their currency
from 75 to 161 over a 10-year period.
That was like super delish, super delish.
From nothing.
We're nowhere.
We're down since 11- 21 code reuse November 10 2021 unchanged money markets do better
micro strategy disaster will Robinson
it's stories that people are telling oh it's gonna just go power law power law has two directions
actually a durable decimalized stable time frame and then the adoption when it just rolls over
i've been trying to get people to understand that price are sacrosanct in a world of quadrillion dollars
of assets and two additional quadrillion of notional derivatives. I come from this from a
frame of someone who would be working on a block volatility test, not just a block equity test.
And I look at all the different integrals and all the cross-assets, and it never made sense
to me that the NASDAQ outperformed the S&P from November 21, 2008, 5,711 days, until July 10,
2024, and has not outperformed since. It's unched. Unchanged.
Just do the math yourself.
NDX divided by SPX.
It stopped going up 20 months ago, 19 months ago.
And what's worse is that data set, which is about 3.6 something,
was 3.3 on March 10, 2000. So you've got 26 years,
and you've got 10%.
So I see a lot lower potential
based on history evaluation.
I'm not positioning for it yet.
I'm distributing.
I'm down, I would say, in some cases, to 5% in a long only book in tech and communications and financials.
And they're 52% of the S&P 500.
I've replaced that with mortgages, mid-treasuries, a little longer treasuries, staples, healthcare utilities.
When this war ends, there will be some limited recovery.
I don't think it's a cure in any possible way
because I think all this was going to happen.
We have the most overvalued market
by the most gap between the first and second of all time.
q ratio 79 in 2000 139 now um 139 139 in 2000 was the 14 trillion of s p versus 10.25 trillion
Cure ratio, 79 in 2000, 139 now.
gdp we're now at 30 and a half and you know you're over 200 when you add in crypto over two times
$200 when you add in crypto over two times.
Do you look at any bank and say,
that's what I want to buy,
knowing how leveraged they are?
What happens is you observe them
as the yield curve flattens.
And I am literally the only one in the world
that's been advocating for a flatter curve.
The whole mortgage community, I've told you directly
or through indirect contact of a trillion,
everyone's steep.
I've said Harley Bassman says he's steep.
He says mechanically you should be steep
because of the agate decks.
That last piece, I don't want to misdate what he said,
but they're all steep the curve.
And where were we?
Where were we last week?
On that Thursday, Wednesday, Thursday.
The curves are breaking.
They're under the 200-day moving average, getting closer to death crosses.
On the daily, then we'll flip over to the weekly and watch them compress.
What is a death cross? What is a below 200? It means more savers than investors or borrowers,
let's say. The equilibrium is changing. And we're going to need a lot lower prices on mortgages,
excuse me, a lot lower yield, a lot higher price on mortgages in order to be able to make housing make sense.
So you basically don't have a lot of borrowers
out the 10-year,
and you've got a heck of a lot of people
trying to get their money out of equity into something.
And how much capital gains taxes?
I can't.
I can't.
Wow.
Uh-oh.
It is interesting.
The price is sick.
If you have a flatter curve, is that good for banks?
I'll let you answer that, Wabi.
I have no idea, bro, honestly.
A bank is four things.
Broker, dealer, curve, and credit.
They're not making money on spreads.
They're not making money on spreads.
Private credit's too tight.
They need a steep curve.
And they're losing the steepness.
They're losing the net interest margin.
The curve was inverted, and that caused Jamie Dimon
to send out a spokesman
on September 12, 2024,
encouraging the Fed to not cut by only 25 basis points.
encouraging the Fed to not cut by only 25 basis points.
They were losing that interest margin.
So that's a big, big, big, big problem.
If you get a death cross in the curves,
isn't the curve, isn't the volatility,
the differential of bank earnings?
A bank is just the integral of all of the short volatility positions that they have.
So the flatter curve, the less potential income for the banks.
Private credit is annihilating them, and I'm talking about the good private credit, not the high...
By the way, did you hear
Colbert Kravis came out today bragging about,
we got a 15 bagger on something.
How about bagging everybody
with all the software stuff?
It's a big problem.
But if you see the market go down
while a war is going on,
of course the war is a factor. But a priori saying, oh, it's going to come right back after the war is going on of course the war is a factor but a priori saying oh
it's going to come right back after the war is over there's a lot of damage going on in the world
and i don't know if you know but there's a lot of dollar denominated debt in in the emerging markets
right is that going bad in front of our eyes? Are they going to be making the full payments
when their currencies just keep on melting, melting?
Of course not.
Doesn't that eat into the net income?
Look at Deutsche Bank.
How's Deutsche Bank doing lately?
Let's take a little look together at LittleDB.
It was 40, 43, it's down 12,
it's down 30, was it 30%?
Let's see,
the high was
40.43, 28.39,
28.39
divided by
40.43.
We're down
28.78%.
Okay, 29.78%.
We're down 30% in two and a half months.
What's the annualized rate of collapse
of a Deutsche Bank?
How much exposure do they have
to the emerging markets?
A little or a lot?
A lot.
Look at the rest of them.
It's a big problem.
It's never too late to save your capital if you have it.
Promises are like Popeye and Wimpy.
I think it's Wimpy.
I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today.
Well, I'll gladly receive the payment for a hamburger. I will deliver you in the future. That's wimpy. I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today. Well, I'll gladly receive the payment for a hamburger
I will deliver you in the future.
That's a futures contract.
Get the money now,
not the promise of performance later.
You know I've been screaming,
and I tell people I'm not going to participate
if someone's going to come up and decontextualize
or take credit for something that was policy.
All these guys on TV saying we got our price target.
They don't highlight the fact that the Fed did a trillion and a half of QE.
And they cut rates that no other Fed in history has ever done.
This much, this soon.
When inflation was elevated, the economy is strong.
Nobody.
So they suppressed the dollar and they got some fake temporary money.
And that's their success. And now Morgan Stanley, when the market's getting hit,
oh, maybe it's time to de-risk now. How about when I screamed on Sunday night, the day after
the bomb, after the eye of the storm passed and we went into the back, which is much worse.
You know what's going to happen in Asia with El Nino?
What kind of drought they're going to have this year? They get no fertilizer. They're going to get no rain. No monsoons probably in India. You're not going to get that water. Food prices are going
to be up. People need to eat. What's that going to do to their gold stash? It's going on the chopping block. We're
losing equity, folks. We're not losing debt. We're not losing leverage. We're losing equity.
It's a big problem, and it's a huge opportunity for anybody that's willing to watch. You want to
follow me? You want to, that's up to you, but you don't have the right not to watch prices and just listen for the logical place to enter.
The word logical has become so revolting to me.
It's used as a thing like,
I'm not going to guarantee something,
but logic says DCA.
How about D-C-E?
David, quick question.
When does the El Nino end?
That's interesting.
It could be years? it could be years
it could be years?
three cycles
there's nothing worse than what's happening to Asia right now
remember it was March 25th
1997
you had a 197 print
and Greenspan got the brilliant idea
let me just snug up rates
to 550 because they had a lower than
i think it was the 550. 99 days later thailand withdraws their pay because they don't have any
money because the money started chasing more to the dollar with a higher rate then indonesia then
south korea and then what? It circles all around the globe,
and then 411 days later, August 17, 1998, boom, chakalaka, LTCM blows up, Solomon Brothers
pulls the bid on the garbage of LTCM, $365 billion bailout, Fed cuts rates.
billion bailout, Fed cuts rates. The Nasdaq bottoms two days before the second in a series
of three cuts, and the Nasdaq goes up 4.5 times in 16 months. Greenspan said, I used it as Kool-Aid
to let people not be worried about the dot-com rollover. You didn't have everyone pulling money out of the banks
because they were worried that the ATMs wouldn't work.
And you'd never run on the banking system.
And he says, you know, I'm going to keep the spigot open for two weeks
and then I'm going to close it.
He raised rates, I think, February 2nd, March 21.
The NASDAQ stops outperforming the S&P on March 10.
They hike 11 days later.
Three days later, the Nasdaq peaks.
The S&P peaks.
He hikes again on May 16.
I think it's May 16.
And they let the Nasdaq go down 57%.
This guy took a different tag.
He burnt all of his arsenal.
You can argue why.
I don't care to argue why.
What I care is that it just was going down.
And then they announced an emergency cut on January 3rd of 2001. PAX 777 talks about how it
destroyed his everything. The Nasdaq rose 26% in five minutes. There was no offer, and he got blown
out. But with his reputation, they let him hang around, trade odd lots, and he earned the money back. Without his reputation,
everything would have been okay.
One last thing.
So, April 17th,
I sent a note to Steve Cohen to circulate.
Everybody in the firm should get flat.
It's too much of a risk on Cisco's earnings.
They do another one of these things.
And I got lucky.
It happened.
They did an emergency cut, plus 16, in five minutes.
We don't have that risk, in my opinion, right now.
Rates are too low.
Stocks are too overvalued.
So a lot of people who are worried, oh, we don't want to risk doing another one.
I don't think that happens.
And the lower the rate goes, the greater the force coming out of the carry trade just buying five percent
treasuries funding them at two and five eights at two and seven eights what are we going to ask evan
oh well i was going to say i mean obviously the end of the business cycle generally energy peaks
last we're seeing that situation i mean if you're in the ballpark that nasdaq's going down you know I was going to say, I mean, obviously, the end of the business cycle, generally, energy peaks last.
We're seeing that situation.
I mean, if you're in the ballpark that NASDAQ's going down, you know, 40-plus percent or something like that, that's recession numbers.
No, but we have a very strong economy otherwise.
Unemployment is rising, though.
That is a fake number.
It is a number of institutions.
It comes from a bad response rate, down from 70 to 40.
The birth-death model is supposed to capture small business.
The initial claims are actual money.
People have the lowest,
the second lowest initial continuing claims
at 2817 last week.
People can get jobs.
And how about all these people in tech
getting fired from Salesforce and Facebook?
You don't think they're going to
work for other companies and
they'll be so much more productive they won't have to go
through all this bureaucracy
they'll drive so many
costs up people like why is Salesforce
melting down because
you're going to have a lower seat count and you won't be able
to have creeping prices
there's too much capital in tech
there's no way for the adoption
to happen as fast as people think.
There's too many moving parts.
And that have been crowding out access to capital.
Real rates are hurting gold,
it's hurting silver, it's hurting copper,
and it's hurting tech.
And those are your imputations.
This is not math
where we have a theorem and a proof.
This is like physics where we have a theorem and a proof this is like physics where we have to
impute what we see
when you see the behavior
of planets in a spiral
galaxy where the ones
that are millions of light years
further away are of the same speed
it's because you
you just cut out
I think
should we lose
David
no that
that was my
mistake
because I was
bringing up
other people
yeah I think
I jotted him
down by mistake
or something
like that
yeah it's
glitchy
we'll get him
back
yeah
I'm gonna
send him
a DM
and tell him to like request to come up again um
anyway i guess in the meantime what are you seeing well what do you oh yeah i mean um
yeah i mean there's there's definitely i mean i think that inevitably you know nasdaq
um triple q s p 500 those are going to go back to the peaks in all likelihood.
You know, December 2024, February 2025, we're damn close there.
I mean, the NASDAQ, that's only another three freaking percent.
It's crazy, you know, how quickly it's been kind of happening.
So I think that's the big question.
Can you hold those peaks or do you keep going down farther?
Now, those peaks could theoretically hold for a few months. You you hold those peaks or do you keep going down farther? Now, those peaks could
theoretically hold for a few months. You know, Iran's done. That ends in one month to two months.
That's what the betting odds have been saying. And after that, theoretically, you could, you know,
slowly recover or something, something along those lines in a milder version of, you know, 2022.
You know, so there's that potential. S&P 500, similar situation. I mean,
you come into, you know, obviously, you know, S&P 500 is very likely going to continue to
outperform the NASDAQ for a lot of this year. But that's getting attractive if you're down a full,
like, you know, 12, 13, 14 percent if you hit 6,000. So those are big long-term attractive
areas. Obviously, some other things may outperform the S&P 500. If you hit 6,000. So those are big long-term attractive areas. Obviously, some other things
may outperform the S&P 500. If you look at, for example, S&P 500 versus Bitcoin, Bitcoin's not as
bullish on that pair as it is on the gold pair. That's a bullish pair, Bitcoin versus gold on
that three-week especially, because you've bled like 70%, I think, against gold. That's a bullish pair. And I think gold is, you know, gold has had its run. Gold is probably
going to continue to get slaughtered against a lot of things as, you know, it's kind of common
sense when something goes up that much and loses major momentum. That's usually what happens.
Bitcoin crab market, you know, it's held up incredibly, incredibly well, given what's going
on. So S&P 500 going down, you know,
all we need for S&P 500 to get to those peaks is really just another three, four, five percent,
three, four percent. So, you know, let's say Bitcoin does double that from, you know, where
Bitcoin was right now, essentially, or even going being, you know, liberal, being conservative or
being bearish, I guess, you know, 65, 65K, four% or 5%, that's just down to 61K. If you
follow that, if you do twice as bad, 10%, yeah, you're going to make a lower low, 58K. That's
going to be your 200 weekly SMA. We'll see what happens. We'll definitely have to see what happens.
I mean, you're too weak on Bitcoin, essentially. You're having a nice kind of momentum,
potential buy change, momentum change
on your two week. It looks more like a crab market. It looks similar to kind of like that
first bottom in June of 2022. However, if you want to be really, you know, more pessimistic,
it kind of, you could argue it's more like May of 22 before you get a, you know, big flush out.
And I think, you know, that's probably what David was referring to, a big flush downward. And that
would, you know, that would be the case for 48, 52 K those
kinds of areas. So that's what we got to look at. Um, it could happen. I would keep a more
optimistic route. I think there's a case to be made that we could have bottomed, especially if
this isn't the end of the business cycle, especially if this war ends, especially if
interest rates, you know, come down a little bit with Kevin Warsh, we got one, two or three cuts
this year. I think there's still potential for that. If the war ends,
if oil comes down, um, oil, I mean, I'm in XLE, I'm up 30% right now from, you know,
I got in in January. That was a really good trade. I mean, am I going to sell it? Not yet,
but I'm waiting for some momentum changes that'll probably happen within a couple months, you know,
that kind of area. I mean, it peaked out in what was it? June months, you know, that kind of area. I mean,
it peaked out in what was it? June of, you know, June of 2014 and also June. Yeah. June of 2022.
So that's interesting. And those, those two areas right there. So maybe it'll be June of this year.
I mean, we're getting close. We're almost in April, May, June, just a few more months,
potentially for that area oil itself. I don't know, man. I mean,
it's tough to say. Oil is not, I wouldn't short oil, but at the same time, I don't know if I would
buy oil itself. That's a tougher one to trade. I'm more of an ex-elite type guy. But, you know,
you're hitting kind of that main, it generally goes down over time and you're hitting kind of
that main trend line that you hit back in July of 2022. So if all goes well with this war,
then potentially that could have peaked out
and you'll be heading downward.
Those are the optimistic routes right there.
In terms of things that were mentioned, micro strategy.
So I think the big thing here,
and I mean, a lot of the listeners to this,
I mean, Wabi, you've mentioned it yourself,
a lot of retails probably,
they're not gonna be buying Bitcoin.
Just like they weren't buying Bitcoin for the last bull run. They were losing all their money in all coins, you know, including some of us,
whether we admit it or not, you know, we've made, a lot of us have made that mistake. I'll admit it.
You know, I still made money over the past few years, but not the 10, 20 X I would have hoped
to get. A lot of people are micro strategy. Now, when do you pull out of micro strategy? When do you pull out? When do you
have some have some restraint, some discipline, probably under $100. I say if you lose that,
then you're not trending up with time. But even more importantly, look at micro strategy versus
Bitcoin. That's an important frickin chart to look at. Let me tell you, because if that makes
another low below its February low against Bitcoin, then you're probably dead in the water there.
Same goes with BM&R.
You know, we'll see what happens.
You know, it's kind of those low risk, high reward plays.
You know, I sold some cash secured puts on it.
Same thing with BM&R.
And if I get hit, get assigned, and then we make that lower low against Bitcoin, I'm going to get the hell out immediately.
Convert to, I don't know, Bitcoin or something else that looks attractive potentially. But that's kind of the
strategy right there. I mean, beat up treasury companies have bottomed out way before Bitcoin
bottomed out back in 2022. Can that happen? Maybe. Does it have to? No. Look at what all coins did
in 2021. They didn't do jack shit compared to that you know in
2025 what we all hoped for so you can't you know history rhymes some things repeat but definitely
not everything repeats now in terms of the dixie yeah i'm still kind of bullish on that i don't
have a problem with having some cash right now i'm the type of person that always realizes you know
there's always a bull market somewhere and i'd rather kind of ride up the winners such as xle
right now i mean other than that there's not maybe DCA Bitcoin a little bit because it looks good against gold. I mean, it may
have bottomed against the S&P 500. It's tough to say you're kind of in a neutral area, but I think
XLE is still okay. I don't know if I'd buy it right now. Some cash is cool. Real estate probably
will perform the S&P 500. You know, what I do sometimes is I just pay my mortgage down more
some months rather than, you know, if the S&P 500 or, you know, I think Bitcoin doesn't look
attractive, I just pay out down the mortgage because that's a 7.6 return on that, depending
on what interest rate you have. So you could get creative with it. You know, you could look at,
you know, look at these type of things here. So yeah, I mean, sure. Let me just wrap up with
kind of short term. I mean, we're kind of rejecting now we're coming back up a little bit on ETH.
This volatility that we saw has been pretty, um, pretty wild.
I mean, I'm short from like 2070 on ETH, um, almost hit my first take profit.
We'll see what happens now.
We've been jumping up a little bit, but I think we may reject from the week today anchored
VWAP on ETH.
I think that's, you know, a potential place to reject and then come down to like 1973. I mean, it's more crabbish, I would say, you know, we're,
we're kind of in a more crabbish market and we'll, we could stay crabbish for a while. Look at what
happened in, you know, 2024, because if the institutions don't sell, it's probably going
to be pretty tough to go below like 55 or 50 K. And, you know, if retail doesn't buy, it's going
to be pretty hard to go above 75 or 80 K. So you may be between those numbers for. And, you know, if retail doesn't buy, it's going to be pretty hard to go above 75 or
80k. So you may be between those numbers for the next, you know, six to eight months, some situation
like that. Same thing, you know, let me just wrap it up with Bitcoin, you know, essentially,
you know, rejecting from kind of what we saw this morning, what was it 68k now back to 66,
some crazy volatility. Let's see if we can hold or break above the previous daily anchored
vwap here that's where we're kind of rejecting from i don't know what's going to happen here but
you know a lot of people i think we're trying to long in terms of funding rates we may break down
a bit more or stay kind of cravish get boring after all this excitement so yeah i mean it's
what it is i mean if you're betting that bitcoin bottom, you know, before the end of this year by October, it is a DCA area.
It is a DCA area.
Even if you do go down to 25K, that was mentioned.
I mean, if you DCA through that and you go back up to, you know, even just 60, 70K in
a year or two, your average price probably would be below that.
So you may be okay.
I mean, I don't know.
You know, we'll see what happens with microstrategy and all that.
I don't think we're going to go, you know, that low, but we definitely got to keep an eye on things.
So, yeah.
Ixters, what's up, man?
Hey, Wabi.
How you doing, man?
What's up, bro?
Not much.
I had a question for David, but I see he's dropped down.
I don't know if that—
I see him as a listener, man. Yeah. I don't know if- I see him as listening, man.
Yeah.
I don't know if Evan might know.
I know David is talking about rates coming down.
I'm wondering how that's possible
or likely with where oil's at
and inflation essentially being back on the rise
and all this, obviously, these supply issues with oil,
it's not going to
just kind of cease overnight, right? It's going to take a minute. So I was just wondering
how he would think that plays out, basically. Why would rates drop given where the current
inflection points are with inflation and oil and things like that?
That's a great question, man let me okay so if you remember
what happened in 2023 when silicon valley bank went down when rates are too high for too long
it puts stress on the banks and like the theory that the unwritten theory that a lot of people
kind of think is when the u.s 10 year gets up to like wherever the hell it peaked out and you know
probably when silicon valley bank went down or whatever. Yeah, that was around 2023.
I would say 4.7, 4.8.
That's when you get to major trouble.
That's a theory.
Now, we don't know, you know, the stress may not be as bad as it was in 23.
Nobody has a crystal ball.
But theoretically, yeah, I would think if you get to 4.7,
they would be forced to kind of start to cut rates or something of that nature.
You know what I mean?
Or they could just print money to bail the banks.
But it's money printing either way.
You could argue that that would help out Bitcoin in other ways.
There's different views.
Some people think it's all bearish, but it's not necessarily.
That's when they think Trump would kind of chicken out with this Iran stuff,
if he's able to, when it would potentially end.
That's like a major point.
I would say 4.7 for the U.S. 10-year.
Once that potentially happens, the Fed would be forced, you know,
to cut rates or, you know, do something.
Definitely do something to save the banks.
You know, they cut rates and they bailed out, you know,
or they raised rates.
And what they did with Silicon Valley Bank is they still raised by,
I think it was 25 basis points and they bailed out the bank.
So that's another freaking way. You just bail out the bank and you still, you know, don't change
monetary policy or whatever, but we're in more of an end of QT time where you're getting into the
QE area. Um, betting odds would say a long, long pause. So they, they sure as hell ain't going to
raise rates. But I think if Iran ends, they're going to, they're going to cut rates too. If
Iran ends and your S and P 500 is down 10 to 15%, same with your NASDAQ, you know, they're gonna they're gonna cut rates too if iran ends and your s p 500 is
down 10 to 15 percent same with your nasdaq you know they're gonna they're gonna cut rates slowly
you know what i mean like two or three this year um it really depends what you think will happen
with iran i think that's the that's the elephant in the room i mean if this goes on then it you
know it's a double-edged sword too because if you look at iraq sometimes it kind of does help the
economy you know things kind of oil went up for many years you know through oh forwarded to that all the way until
you know away so you know it's hard to say man these are complicated things you know these are
these are very complicated things that could be viewed in other ways i mean some people think
on the business cycle recession i know i'm saying every every single general possibility but the
the main view that i want you to take away is that, you know,
rates theoretically going up to like 4.7 on the 10-year,
that's going to put major stress on the banks.
So, yeah.
All right.
I appreciate your insight, man.
Abe, what's up, bro?
Abe Weissy well
I think he's off
I don't think he's around his phone man
I don't think he's off
here on Spaces
and I think he's off somewhere else
but I see David as a listener man I don't think he's off here on Spaces, and I think he's off somewhere else.
But I see David as a listener, man.
I don't see him requesting.
He's telling me that he's requesting, but I don't see him at all. It's glitchy, man.
Yeah.
At some point, I think Spaces will be back and not be as glitchy.
But I think it's a great time to wrap up, guys.
We've been going for almost three hours.
I guess we'll finish up this discussion for tomorrow.
It is a shorter week.
We have a good Friday this Friday.iday so stock market's going to be closed
and uh we usually don't stream on those days so first and foremost i want to thank all the
speakers but evan is there anything that you want to say before uh i close up shopper no man good
show great talking to you. Thanks, man.
Thanks for coming on.
Last call for Abe, if you're there, man.
All right.
I'm going to wrap up now. So, guys, if you enjoyed the show, if you enjoyed the content that you've been tuning into over the last three hours my name's wabi and i go live here on the
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