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Market Talk- HUGE MOVE FOR CRYPTO AND STOCKS SOON?! TARRIFS?! TRUMP?!
Recorded: Feb. 24, 2026 Duration: 4:05:13Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. so次回予告 Don't look down, just keep your head or you'll win it.
Open up the lemon.
Pass the corner of no return.
Reach the top, but still you gotta learn how to keep it. Oh, It's the game! Going for the back of the yard Nothing on this copy, there's nothing that's wrong
So close now, you barely have to break the soul
For the jam, oh yeah!
Welcome to the Nimitz.
Take it maybe one step more. Our game's still playing, so we better play. Thank you. Oh Oh, no. Thank you. Welcome to the limits.
Welcome to the limits.
Stand on the raisin table.
Don't break down, just keep your head.
You can be left.
Welcome to the limits.
Welcome to the limits. what's going on boys evan what's up man hey trades what's going on man guys welcome back
to market talk brought to you by bb my name's wabi and prices are the exact same as they were
yesterday man and uh we had we actually had a couple of um things happen though outside of
price action just being flat jane Street is now the entity to blame
for Terraform Labs for going under.
That was probably like the worst period I've ever experienced in the market.
And we also have Trump talking about more tariffs.
And we also have Pippin making new all-time highs, and that thing is probably the biggest, if you want to call it crime, call it crime, but it's like the dark horse.
Nobody really expected this thing to just rally on and on and on, and it pulls back 30%, and then a few days later just makes another all-time high.
It's a meme token.
There's no use for the token at all.
I think it's even listed on Robinhood.
And Hood has also been not really doing much.
But we do have that ZACXBT article coming out on the 26th.
So a few days from now, there's an entire poly market.
There's an entire market on poly market as far as who it is.
Some people think it's Meteora.
Some people think it's Mexi.
Some people think it's Pump Fund.
Some people think it's World Liberty Fi.
And some people think it's an entity that's not even any of the choices.
But it does have some volume, has a couple mil in volume.
Personally, if I were to say which one were to go down, I would say World Liberty Phi.
I think they're the biggest cancer in the entire space. They haven't added a single thing of value into the market outside of just Fugazi stable coins to prop up some random shit coins.
You also have Expresso going parabolic.
We discussed that a few shows ago.
It's a privacy layer on ETH.
privacy layer on ETH to layer two and um I don't know if anyone is actually going on an ethereum
l2 for privacy to really to really do anything I don't even know what the token does but it's
one of those low flow high FDV tokens and you're always going to have these like random shit coins that um are going to trend regardless of what the broader
market does um but on chain is still pretty abysmal man it is pretty abysmal they're trying to send
this lobster token to like tens of millions and the volatility on that thing is just absolutely absolutely ridiculous um it's basically just another copycat of goteus maximus except um i
think the the coin or product was launched by someone from open ai i don't know any of it but
um people are trying to run back the ai trade over the last few months since October. There's been this desire to run back
the AI trade when really that was a time where it wasn't only AI that was trending. You also had
things like Chill Guy and Peanut run to hundreds of millions, if not billions, within a couple of
weeks. And that was also off of the cocktails of Trump winning the election. And we don't really
have that right now. There's zero news about the strategic Bitcoin reserve that was yapped about
throughout of all 2024. I think it was even talked about when Trump was yapping on stage
during the Bitcoin conference in July of 2024, a few days after
he almost got killed.
And there's still nothing on that front at all whatsoever.
So BTC actually needs a catalyst.
And the only catalyst that's happening, it's a word that people love to use, catalyst, is there's so much ETF outflow.
There's so much ETF outflow.
On a day where the stock market is bouncing from yesterday's low, there's zero action on majors.
On majors, I think you would possibly need the Qs to go into price discovery before any meaningful move in the crypto market.
We've yapped about this for some time now.
As long as the triple Qs are below their October all-time high, you can't really expect much out of this market.
And it's so baffling, man. It is so baffling how the S&P is barely down 2%
from its all-time high. But you have Bitcoin at a 48, call it 47% discount. ETH is down like 60%.
like 60% Solana, my gosh, man, Solana is just abysmal. It's like a couple of bucks away from
making new lows. And I really don't know where the bottom is on that thing. I would rather buy
something like Solora Hype once we actually start to see some momentum to the upside where the trend is clear rather than trying to catch
a falling knife but as far as equities go coca-cola has made another all-time high
chips are down like sandisk is down today i think that one is just topped for a bit but um there was some amd news there was some amd news
so that um is up on the day and i haven't really taken a look at really anything else i typically
just look at things um like hood um and sandisk i do think hood is still going to be the thing to to watch out for um i
think you could probably even outperform mstr despite hood having a um substantial amount
more in market cap versus uh mstr um i think people are going to be surprised over the next few years
people are going to be surprised over the next few years with higher cap outperformance.
People in crypto usually think, oh, I'm going to buy low caps for outperformance.
And generally speaking, that is a good move.
But in the equity markets, we saw things like NVIDIA and a few other names outperform low caps.
For example, you could have bought Meta and outperformed Cathie Wood,
which is honestly shocking. The stock market was up only for three plus years.
If someone were to tell you back then, hey, stocks are going to be up and to the right for three
years, obviously, back then, hindsight is 20-20, you would have said, yeah, I'm just going to buy ARK Invest and that's it. And
Meta outperformed ARK Invest by a massive multiple. NVIDIA also outperformed many cryptos,
many, many, many cryptos. And I think that's going to be the case with HUD and MSTR. But
AMD having an okay day, I definitely don't think ai is over by any
means nvidia at some point probably trades at like probably trades at like 350 to 400
um before trump leaves office and that'll probably conclude like the first big wave um
That'll probably conclude like the first big wave in AI.
At some point, there will be like it's dot com moment where everything just pulls back in a big way.
But those are kind of my opening thoughts, guys.
I'm going to go ahead and pass it to the other individuals up here on the panel.
And as always, we will have some of our other speakers come in during the second half of the show.
But I hope you guys are having a great day so far.
Thank you to those that are listening to the recording and those of you that are here with us tuning in live right now.
I do notice that spaces are kind of rugging on my Mac right now.
And I'm on my personal profile and it says Space is not available.
So if it rugs, apologies on that.
It seems like Space has this weekly occurrence where it just shuts off randomly.
I think it happened on Thursday or Friday's show where it just rugged out of nowhere.
And actually,
I think it was on Friday's show.
I think it was on Friday's show where it just shut off out of nowhere.
So if it does do that,
guys,
apologies.
But before I officially get started for today's show,
spaces are recorded as usual.
If you guys can go ahead and show some love to the space,
show some love to the space show some love
to the show best way to do that guys is by clicking the spaces tab once you guys do that
right above our profile pictures you'll see a link that says x.com slash i slash spaces
you guys can go ahead hit up the like button hit the retweet button helps bring more people in here
brings more awareness of the show and all that good stuff.
And if any of you guys in the audience want to come up today and talk some shop, feel free to do that.
You guys can click the mic to the bottom left and I'll bring you right on up.
Don't feel shy, guys. Don't feel shy.
I think I know most of you by now.
For those that always catch the space within the first few
minutes of us going live i do see a lot of familiar profiles so if any of you want to come up ask
questions or kind of give your thoughts on the market feel free to do that i usually do that on
fridays but today i figured why not it's a choppy day there hasn't really been uh there isn't really
much price action outside of these random things that happen in crypto, like Espresso and also Seeker, which is the Solana mobile coin.
If anyone bought the Solana Seeker phone, I think it came out last year, you're eligible.
Rather, you say, I think you can
just claim your airdrop. I think it's a few thousand bucks, which is always cool, I guess,
right? Crypto always has these like random airdrops that most people honestly miss out
on them, man. They really do, including myself. I don't even know if the jupiter airdrop
is like live or it's about to go live i haven't really kept up with that but maybe it happens
later this month um or perhaps it's already live and i and i missed out on it but uh either way
evan how's your vacation going man how are you what's going on
man doing well i was doing well wabi um so yeah i mean it like yeah i mean a little bit of a boring
market the first thing that i'll talk about that's interesting is we may things are looking a little
bit more bullish in the short term i think so we may have hit like some type of bounce off of like 62.5.
And I could see us potentially jumping back up into, you know, the range.
We've been in the volume profile range between like 66 all the way up to 70K again.
So I wouldn't rule out completely a little bit of a bullish jump into the beginning of March,
potentially up to like
74k 73k wouldn't ruled out completely um the charts look a little bit better like on the six hour and
below they look a little bit better i mean even on like the 12 hour not looking bad the 10 hour not
looking bad so i wouldn't um i wouldn't you know I feel like a lot of people may get caught shorting,
you know, with their, you know, their shorts down here, potentially with their pants down,
their shorts around their ankles. That's the joke. But, you know, it could jump up,
I could be wrong. So I do think that there's that potential there. In terms of, I don't know if you
saw, MicroStrategy is actually the most shorted stock right now. I don't know if that's true. I
was reading it. Some people posted that.
I'm pretty sure it is true.
Some verified, you know, some usually correct accounts posted that.
So I don't know.
I usually, I mean, GameStop, I remember, was the most shorted stock.
And we saw what happened with that, you know, back in the day.
Man, I feel so old.
I feel, you know, GameStop, I was around for that, you know, five, six years ago now.
Feels like yesterday. But, you know, that, six years ago now. It feels like yesterday.
But, you know, that's something to realize.
That's something to realize.
So I do think a little bit of money can come up into crypto over the next week, two weeks.
March usually historically is more of a bad month for crypto, I believe.
And, you know, it's the second tax season sell-off.
So I would say by mid-March, you'll probably see the end of the fund a little bit. So yeah, that's kind of what I'm looking at there. I mean, even BM&R, that's showing a little
bit of strength against Bitcoin, still kind of coming up against Bitcoin. So if history repeats,
you know, MicroStrategy could have bottomed against Bitcoin and could do pretty well.
I know everybody's afraid of the beat- up treasury companies right now. And I mean, I think the best technique for that, that, that I've been
kind of doing is like, if it, if it makes another low against Bitcoin, I'm just out, I'm just going
to convert it to Bitcoin. But until that happens, I'm, I'm still, you know, I'm still keeping that
position. So that's what I'm looking at right now. I know you mentioned Solana. I, it's hitting a
big point. I mean, we can jump back
to our range highs, you know, 87 bucks potentially. Not impossible to, you know, make a little rally
up to $100. But I do think, you know, after that, you probably will, you know, reject and come down
a bit. You know, that's the main thing I'm seeing there. So, yeah, I mean, you mentioned S&P 500.
I mean, that I think is going to come down.
That would be, yeah, that's the thing, too, that kind of almost nullifies my bull case for next week or two.
Because, you know, I would assume if Bitcoin does jump up, the S&P 500 should jump up a little bit as well or at least stay sideways.
It does look pretty bearish.
That thing has been range bound.
You know, we're at the same price we were at back at the end of October.
So that's been a lot of range bound, you know, we're at the same price we were at back at the end of October. So that's been a lot of range bound this, I, it wouldn't surprise me if you're range bound for,
you know, another two weeks, kind of boring for another two weeks. And I think into, you know,
at least the second half of March, you will finally see the S&P 500 continue to, you know,
come back down in terms of, oh yeah, in the, uh, in terms of like other things that kind of look
bullish, you know, XLE looks pretty good.
That still looks pretty good.
I think oils will continue into the summer.
I think the no brainer for all your old people investments is probably what I'm going to
Not any type of advice, but convert them over to Bitcoin, to crypto around July, August.
I think, you know, that would make the most sense.
And that's when I could see a lot of them topping out um kind of against bitcoin um so yeah that's what
i got right now i gotta take a break for a second i'll be back though yeah all good man all good
brother i i am seeing that right now as far as um mstr being the most most shorted stock.
I'm seeing it from BSCN News.
And yeah, it's the number one then it's charter communications and then core weave and then
coinbase so from the top five wait you also have cyber security palo alto you also have Dell Technologies. So it seems like it's just energy and tech.
Yeah, it's energy and tech.
That is wild, man.
Wow.
Jeez, dude.
There are 50, yeah, 53 funds that are short this thing. Dang. Maybe there is a
squeeze in coming, man. Wow. I am kind of shocked. And I just see like Sailor's happy face there,
man, which is uh something else man
atrex what are you saying bro how are you man
give me one second i'm on the plane bantam right now i'll be done in a second
you're good man you're okay um sullivan i sent you an invite to speak bro come on up here man
i have to say when you tell people that everyone's short microstrategy you have to remember that's a
short against all the preferreds he's selling it's not a naked short and the more he said the
more preferreds he sells the more people
short that so people shouldn't take the normal view that yeah it's a natural short same thing
with um core weave there's a lot of corporate debt out there trading a thousand off these are shorts
against assets and i i i also want to mention this whole like crypto clarity act i don't think it's going
to pass until after um midterms i i think that's a fugazi they're going to push that as far out as
possible and the strategic bitcoin reserve is probably not gonna happen until we go into the halving, which I think it's truly going to be the mother of all tops.
That's going to be such a massive top
because you're going to have a halving cycle
under the second Trump administration,
and the noise that they're going to make is going to,
at the very least, I think, create an echo bubble
similar to Q4 of 2024. I just don't think Bitcoin is going to go at the very least, I think, create an echo bubble similar to Q4 of 2024.
I just don't think Bitcoin is going to go as high as people think.
I don't.
I think a lot of people, as a matter of fact,
left crypto to buy equities.
They want to buy SanDisk and other names in the equity markets um
that's just my take though man that's just my take you you you have more volatility um
in equities right now than crypto and i think it's because a lot of people are just migrating on over
and and i don't blame them you know jane Jane Street is the one that took down terraform labs
which honestly is probably the worst day of my entire life so far at least was when Luna went
to zero I know I know some of you were actually on that space that I did I think it was called
this is a Wendy's or something like that.
And I had a ton of people in there.
I had Trader XO, SC, and a few others who are unfortunately not with us, man.
There will probably never be a day like that in crypto, probably until Saylor has to sell his btc which i do think is probably going
to happen at some point like my doom scenario is um micro strategy becomes an american
an americantly owned company where trump comes in and just like overtakes it or whatever entity Trump wants to use. And they bail it out.
They seize the Bitcoin and Saylor probably does some time in prison or something like that. I
don't know, bro. Sullivan, what's going on, man? I haven't spoken to you in some time.
How are you, man? It seems like every week that passes by, Solana just makes lower lows or every other week solana just makes lower lows
and um i remember when you put out that fractal last year with soul going to 30 bucks and me being
a former soul boy i didn't really like that man but i i you were right. How are you, man? Now what's up, Bobby? Oh, and I see you're finally coming to the light.
I see that you truly witnessed the asymmetric opportunity
in realizing how important this smog off is
between the ASU frat leader and Andrew Jenick.
And, you know, just the crux of uniting the Clevengers.
Clevenge Clev.
Man, I'll tell you what, that brain rot I actually got a kick out of.
Most of it I always found was pretty stupid.
But, no, I genuinely enjoy reading the frame-mogging.
And next time we're together, Wobby, I'm going to have to frame-mog you, brother.
I actually believe you can, dude.
You're the whitest and tallest person on BV, man.
You're like Michael Phelps.
Quite literally, dude.
You're like Michael Phelps.
But, I mean, dude, do you think this zach xvt thing and uh terraform labs piece hitting it the
same in the same week plus we also have that blood moon thing i think it also happens next week and
so far that blood moon that's happened over the last 12 months have has always resulted in downside
march downside september i think after the blood moon in september a few weeks later we had 10 10
happen um so i guess it's always like a delayed effect and it's the it's the last one until uh
q4 2028 which i think the second half of 2020 is going to be abysmal man i think i think
that's like where chudgex get blown out and your thesis everything happens at once like the bad
thing i guess like i think that happens all at once man um just my dick though what are you saying man yeah man I mean I guess uh when it rains it pours
right um it seems like the Zach xbt piece is going to be on Meteora um just looking at the
poly market odds which is not surprising at all I think everybody kind of knew that
they've uh they were kind of behind a bunch of the pump and dumps and insider trading that happened
for so long chain
so yeah i mean that that part wasn't really surprising but the part that surprised me with
the uh with the jane street that information that came out yesterday wasn't that they
might have began the bank run uh that led to the collapse of tara what was more shocking to me was
that jane street does 10 of all of like every every transaction for equities in North America.
That honestly kind of boggled my mind a little bit,
that one firm does that much volume of all equity trading.
I mean, that's the part, yeah, that I found most surprising.
But that's what I would say about those topics.
I mean, like I said, when it rains, it pours.
We have just like this horrible period of bearish astrology that started kind of like two weeks ago.
It will likely continue until like April from what I understand.
But what I have noticed from the market is that when we kind of have these like bearish, super bearish events, rather, I'm not going to get too deep into it we usually
front run it so i kind of feel like we'll find some sort of local bottom around like march and
april um and then yeah we'll just kind of see how it goes i'm kind of expecting some pretty
aggressive downside into that period though with that said i mean i think that when we look at
volatility it's like yes the s p has just been kind of chopping within this range.
A lot has been made about the I've been affectionately calling it the gamma gorilla grip
on the market that's kept the S&P and the indexes mostly pinned.
But yeah, I mean, one thing that I'm pretty consistently seeing, though, is that even as
they're suppressing vol, there's not a lot of call buying up here. It's really just
kind of like selling puts. And as the puts decay, we lift a little bit higher. But each time that
happens, it seems like the floor of the VIX continues to rise. So I think we're leading to
or getting closer to a pretty meaningful spike in that regard. And I think the same as well for
DVOL, right, which when which when devil rises it just completely
breaks it completely breaks the crypto market in bitcoin uh for a lot of reasons that i'm sure
other people can get into or have already gotten into on this space i talk about them a ton on my
twitter or my my x account um this isn't twitter anymore is it but no that that rolls off the tongue
in the worst way right right? It really does.
It's so horrible.
It's so bad.
It is.
It is.
But I think, you know, when we're talking about like what what really is moving Bitcoin, I'm pretty sure it's it's evil. Right. Because I mean, at least I think the next marginal sellers of Bitcoin are people who think they do not have to sell Bitcoin at any price.
sellers of Bitcoin are people who think they do not have to sell Bitcoin at any price.
Mostly, I think that's a result of underestimating the left tail risk that we've kind of created by
just, I mean, David's talked about it a ton on these spaces, Bitcoin volatility, right? Like,
the self-reinforcing short vol trade is really a big reason why Bitcoin traded the way that it did
this cycle. And we're just, in my opinion, we're watching it unwind pretty aggressively.
So you have entities that are hedging with covered calls, especially these TCOs.
But when you get these meaningful declines where volatility rises a lot,
the premium that you're making on these covered calls
isn't outpacing the decline of the underlying spot value.
So you have a lot of these parties that just get destroyed when evil starts to rise.
And I am kind of like asking myself, is that leading up to kind of like this penultimate
event where we have just a complete volatility blowout in Bitcoin, where 1010 and maybe even
what we saw two weeks ago were just kind of like an appetizer for, you know, our true capitulation.
Yeah, maybe like if we have a day where BTC is like 20 grand, which I think is going to happen,
I think that probably sets the bottom. You probably have clav come into a space and say told you
retards that this would happen you remember ksi did the same thing on that kaleo space
um a few years back and i think he did that twice man he did that twice and then ksi was just
completely wrong after that.
I think KSI's last tweet was like,
I'm not bidding anything right here,
and that was last April.
You know, you mentioned that on The Space.
I think it was either yesterday or the day before,
and I had completely forgotten his GCR arc.
One thing I do remember about KSI, though, during the terra luna crash and uh you had people
like boldly proclaiming their bottom buys with size i think he bought like was it 10 to 20 million
dollars worth of luna and then within a day within a day those buys were basically zeroed
Those buys were basically zeroed.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah, dude.
I mean, looking back on it now, I think I've grown past it, man.
But that truly was like the most abysmal day.
I did not sleep for like two days.
But here we are man i i i don't think there will ever be an l1 that was as robust as uh
as a i don't think so i don't think so at all you were able to do so much stuff on there man
um if you want to do all that stuff like dude tara was like number one um i think they they
had something called mirror protocol which allowed you to trade like synthetic stocks and all that
stuff so what hyperliquid has right now tara already had they also had anchor which I mean that was like an insanely levered bet and I think um I think like the the main
piece where Jane Street just went in and took advantage was during that three-pull incident
in Curve do you remember that Tommy it was like a 15 minute little window where if you had enough
capital you you basically could overrun the network. And back then, 2021, 2022, if you had like a couple hundred mil, you could overtake most DeFi protocols.
Now, not so much.
But back then, I think MakerDAO almost got liquidated when ETH traded at sub-900.
maker dow almost got liquidated when eth traded at sub 900 um and talking about eth at sub 900
i think on on calci there's like a 40 chance right now over 40 chance that eth trades below
a thousand which at this point man i think it's gonna happen i think at that at this point um
at the very least the ftx low which is at like 1100 because vitalik man vitalik my man
she's selling it he's selling eith he's selling eith when it's down like 20 in six months
you know maybe life something on these treasury companies man i i've been kind of like thinking
to myself this week about how i know we're down as a pretty significant bid on Bitcoin.
So the idea that like smart money would never sell here just doesn't really or like most people are going to assume smart money is not going to sell here.
But I mean, Jihan Wu sold, I mean, his mining company sold all their Bitcoin over the last few weeks.
And for those who know who Jihan Wu is, that is not dumb money.
That is smart money.
And so I've been kind of asking myself this week, like, all right, is this capitulating
into a bottom or is this actually just OGs and cockroaches in crypto front running a massive supply overhang
that exists from these treasury companies who think they won't have to sell but i'm pretty sure
they're gonna have to sell yeah well at least kyle samani capitulating right of Solana goes below 100.
And Jihan Wu, I remember the dumpage that he did in late 2018.
Him and Craig Wright during the fork wars and all that stuff.
And we're all the quantum computing flood
that usually happens every four years to Bitcoin.
Yeah, Jihon is selling this large amount.
Perhaps we are going a bit lower,
and maybe Prometheus was right.
And we go back to prices that we saw in January of 2024,
which was between 38 to 45.
And maybe we have a huge bounce to like 72 or something like that.
Probably the main thing to watch out for is maybe hype, right?
Single digit hype incoming Sullivan.
And maybe there will actually be something to bid on chain, on hype,
that lasts for more than a week.
That would be great.
That would be really fun.
That would be really fun.
That would be fantastic.
That would be fantastic.
And just the fact, last year, Hyperliquid,
actually, no, the best way to say this is,
in 2025, the NASDAQ, as far as net revenue,
I think they only made a multiple of six compared to Hyperliquid.
made a multiple of six compared to hyperliquid hyperliquid made like 850 mil in net rev nasdaq
5.2 bill um nasdaq market cap is just below 50 bill uh hype is trading at six with an fdb of 15
a catch-up trade to close that gap um if you believe in the tokenization of equities and crypto merging all in one market, that's
a pretty good asymmetric trade.
And also Coinbase is about to open up.
I think they made a tweet today.
I'm going to say tweet, not post.
It just sounds more based that they're going to be offering to select customers
to start rolling out stock trading um i still don't think it's going to outperform hood though
hood is hood just has such a grasp on mindshare it's it's uh it's something else man um do you think we're gonna single digit hype something yeah i do um
i do i don't know exactly what path it's going to take to get there um obviously it has a tendency
to hang out uh and distribute for a lot longer than you know people can be willing to short it
and they're quite frankly are probably just better shorts in the market if you're bearish crypto. But what I do think, you know, I mean,
you kind of touched on it, Wabi. It's like Hyperliquid does largely represent a convergence
between crypto equity markets and ultimately, I think, prediction markets as well, all into one app for users. So to bet against Hyperliquid, in my opinion,
at least on like a thematic basis,
is kind of a bet against crypto as an asset class.
If Hyperliquid cannot succeed,
then I don't think that there's going to be any coin
other than Bitcoin that's going to succeed, to be honest.
I don't really think that's an exaggeration to say at this point. So yes, I do think it's going to come, to be honest. I don't really think that's an exaggeration to say at
this point. So yes, I do think it's going to come down a good bit. I'm not quite sure how low it's
going to go. I will be looking to be a buyer at some point. Where I do think the risk to hyper
liquid would be, theoretically, would be if the market drops substantially in a short period of time.
Because in a market where people are typically long biased, it's going to lead to hyperliquid
taking on a lot of bad debt. And they have a native clearinghouse in the same way that
something like FTX did. So this is not me saying I think that Hyperliquid is going to pull an FTX. It's more so that when you get these extreme tail events with a lot of liquidations,
the exchange has to be able to offload those liquidations, however fast or slow that might be.
So I would say that's the risk I think that exists for Hyperliquid. I think they're pretty
battle-tested, though, all things considered,
when we see what happened on October 10th.
But yeah, I'm thematically bullish on Hyperliquid,
and I would say I'm short-term bearish
on really just kind of all tech prices.
Dear God in heaven, if you can hear us,
please don't let Hyperliquid fail,
because that really would suck, man.
I would not know what to bid.
The entire Monad team is leaving.
They've been leaving like crazy,
and there's nothing to do on Monad at all, whatsoever, dude.
All of their heavy hitters are just leaving leaving or they're just posting some slop man have you seen celestial price action that thing was such a good trade
a few years back and like i keep getting notifications from coinbase like celestial's
down five percent celestial's down three percent and then it's like you've
got nick who actually has the physiognomy of a giga chad like you want to talk about like
mogging and nick from celestia dude this psl is probably at like eight but the token price just
screams beta um but uh anyways man i don't know what's up with that token man i think
it's probably trading it's probably going to trade at a few cents and i think the funniest thing would
be like if it pulls off an injective inj which did it inj performed like in 2021 um it's real run happened afterwards and i remember their main guy
there was a guy trying to do like backdoor deals with people and um he's like yo we're about it
we're about to inject so much money into this thing do you want some supply and uh we'll pay
you to shell blah blah blah and it ran up from like 95 cents to 50 bucks
um in a year or whatever and that was back when you had to go behind the 7 of 11.
uh you had to go behind the we had to go behind a 7-eleven to buy some towel you remember that
tommy in order to buy a towel you had to join their Discord and meet up with people behind a 7-Eleven. Those were good times, bro.
You were not able to buy Tau anywhere.
I remember that in 2022, like late 2022.
But yeah, I guess now I think the thing that's happening right now with the market is anything that's trending with attention whether it's ai whatever
the fuck it gets tokenized on soul and then uh the ai larp dev says hey man i don't really care
about the token i'm just gonna focus on my project and it goes down 90 percent um i think that's just
the the market that we're in right now and And they're trying to run back GOAT with this lobster token,
which is really just like a handful of people
selling in and out of the same ticker
over and over and over and over again.
And they hit the same ceilings at 15, 16 mil.
Happened with Kelly Claude a few weeks ago,
nothing with lobster.
And it's like
when you have the same actors in these tokens man it's like on chain is just abysmal right now
i mean it just comes across as uh i think it was prometheus that said it yesterday but it just
comes across as somebody trying to sell you used cars um that get increasingly shittier
honestly and less believable um i think with most of these
coins that people are pushing a lot of it just kind of feels like max extraction it has been
that way for a while um so it's not necessarily like a novel opinion but i just think with all
of these coins we have a lot of bloat right there's a lot of bloat throughout the tech trade
um i would say there's a lot of bloat in the? There's a lot of bloat throughout the tech trade. I would say there's a lot of bloat in the MAG-7 that has not been realized through prices yet.
Clearly, the market's recognizing that there is a lot of bloat in sectors like software.
It's been selling off aggressively.
But I think the optimistic take with the price action that we're seeing from most altcoins,
especially like these VC altcoins,, you know, we're seeing
performance pretty similar to what we saw out of tech in 2008 and 2009, when there was a lot of
optimism towards tech in general, like eight years after the tech bubble. And they were right to be
optimistic on tech, but maybe they bet on the wrong asset. They certainly got the timing wrong.
Many got shaken out of the long tech trade before what was effectively a super cycle for the last decade and
a half. So I think that's probably the optimistic take for most of crypto. That's not me saying
that I think that a lot of these altcoins will come back because I most certainly think they won't. I have kept an eye on Celestia Wabi just in case it does pull an INJ fractal.
But other than that, I mean, yeah, like most of these altcoins will probably just go down
only, maybe forever, right?
Like look at a dot, for example.
Why wouldn't Polkadot just go down forever?
I think somebody made a bot as a joke on that chain and it turned out to be the only active address at the time.
So I got a kick out of that earlier this week.
The Tia Trannies, man.
You remember.
Tia Trannies, Tia Titans, Tia whatever, man.
Anything that starts with a T.
Yeah.
My gosh.
My bet would be Monad would be like an INJ.
But their entire team is leaving, man.
It's probably just going to be Keone.
I really had faith in them, bro.
I tried, but it was kind of an internal jet BB since like 2023.
Dude, I had these people on the show in April of 2023 when nobody knew what Monad was.
The only thing that was known was that Kobe was an investor.
And I think they had like 5,000 followers and I was so enthusiastic about them but there were they were crickets
and they didn't even have testnet until like what was it uh early 2025 q225 when they had
their testnet open wabi do you remember like a year and a half or two years ago when you
were talking in the discord about how you thought whenever
monad launches it's probably yeah the top a major top yes and it was pretty sure it was
it was that that was the last time bitcoin saw a hundred thousand when the the the the
loot boxes the airdrop boxes you know but that was fun man it was it's just it's just a
shame what happened there but i mean at least people who shoved in coinbase uh during that
icl got a liquid 2x um yeah you don't see that with mega eth i don't know if you've been following
that but they've got this allocation that they're trying to fill and i don't see that with MegaEth. I don't know if you've been following that, but they've got this allocation that they're trying to fill, and I don't see any way that it's getting filled anytime soon.
So those people are just going to have to sit with their capital locked up for a full year.
Man, speaking of locked up funds, I remember I had some funds on ThorChain in 2021, back when i was i was working retail in 2021 and i remember like
it's like oh thor chain got got hacked or whatever and i'm like oh my gosh i gotta go back home
um and i just realized that i was fucked for a few months. And yeah, they reopened a few months after that.
I don't know what's going on with ThorChain now, but what could have been, right?
What could have been?
They're not really a big risk of the market anymore, are they, Tommy?
ThorChain?
They kind of just went off into the distance and people just stopped using them.
They kind of just went off into the distance and people just stopped using them?
Yeah, I don't think at this point they're really capable of moving the market, but you never know.
Honestly, like those perps are so illiquid at this point for a rune that you can't even really trade it at this point.
I mean, I remember even trying to trade it like four or five months ago.
I remember even trying to trade it like four or five months ago.
It was just a disaster.
It was just a disaster.
So I think they're probably, if you are wanting to express a bearish bias on DeFi in general,
they're probably way better and more liquid ways of doing that.
Right?
If one protocol is effectively being liquidated, then what other protocols could effectively be liquidated?
Not to do too hard.
Not Chainlink, man.
I feel like the entire world could blow up
and Chainlink would just be sitting at $5.
That's like, that's real strength right there.
It's not observing relative
popcat strength here remember that meme dang the whole market looks like crap
but notice the relative strength on popcat remember that time the real
thing is dang the entire market blew up noticing relative strength on chain link
and it's just sitting at five bucks man I see chifings on the audience man I
used to think she things all was a Suzu old but it's not I think I heard him on
spaces a few few years ago if you want to come up man and give your thoughts on
the market I'll send you an invite to speak if you want to if you want to yap
would love to chat, man.
I remember running into his profile back when Tia and INJ and Sui were all running in Q4 of 2023, shortly before Whiff came out, man.
I think that's when like all the new cycle characters came out and all that
stuff.
And Thickey was blasting spaces during that time period.
Those were some goaded spaces, man.
The vibes in research spaces.
But in the meantime, David, what's up?
How are you?
Welcome.
Is anyone able to hear David or is it just something on my end
i can't hear him though yeah we're not able to hear you david
in the meantime prometheus what's up bro hey what's going on has evan had a chance to talk yet yeah he uh
he yapped oh nice um man i was wanting to i want david to get up here because i would love to ask
david about citrini um david could you please get up here as a speaker um i want to hear your
thoughts on citrini's uh research piece i think we would all love to hear your thoughts on citrini's uh research piece i think we would all love to hear
your thoughts on citrini's research piece um so shit chipping's all what's up bro what's good y'all
how are you man chilling how are you guys i'm doing great uh i think this is the first time
we've interacted man my name My name's Wabi.
I think I heard you on a space with Anson back when Wiff was blasting
and going up like crazy.
Feel free to give some of your thoughts on the market, man.
What are you thinking here?
I mean, yeah, I've actually been DMing with Snorlax a little bit.
I think everything he kind of said has been pretty spot on.
I mean, majors are just like completely anemic.
And I don't know, if you even look at something like ETH, right,
even the levels that it's kind of trading at,
it's almost identical to to 2022 i think back
in may where you just kind of had this really really slow dribble and i do think you know it's
making it difficult uh to hold shorts right because you're kind of assuming like look we're
kind of at the bottom of this range market tends to mean revert. But it's just so weak.
And I think kind of once we break through 1800, I got to imagine there's a lot of, you know,
dad selling puts around those levels.
But once I think we, you know, break 1800, the path is clear.
And I think Snorlax is right, right?
This is one of those moments where, you know, downside convexity is great.
where, you know, downside convexity is great.
And I like his framing of the kind of cyclical versus secular, you know, bottoms.
And the thought that I've kind of just been having is, yeah, I think the 2008 analogy
works, you know, because this cycle, we kind of all agreed it was like nonsense, right?
And we've just been in this slow process of tearing it all down.
You know, I think timing the short is difficult so you just have to size it in a way that you can kind of sit through
the chop with but like look it literally hasn't gone up um so i'm pretty firmly in the in the bear
camp and you see a lot of these posts about how oversold RSI is. And it's like, yeah, that's kind of when you get the big crashes. And the last thing is, I don't think anyone knew how big it was going to be,
but it took markets, let's say a month.
And it just feels like the Citrini post was kind of like that ignition where people are like, oh, you know,
maybe something under the hood is broken.
So I don't know.
I lean firmly bearish, but, you know,
I've largely been out of the market since we fell to 60K,
kind of just been waiting but
have not really been able to re-enter shorts because it's just it's just tough
yeah i feel you on that man on chain also i think on chain has honestly sucked for most people uh
after whiff had topped out because not many people even entered um ai and and i remember feb of 2020 crypto was starting
to show some uh some weakness and i think the s p was still hitting all-time highs going into like
mid-feb and then going into march that's when everything just imploded and we have all this crap with uh with iran and israel and all that stuff and
the files and all that so it does feel like a huge vol event is going to happen and
as far as rsi uh i would agree with you i think rsi hit an extreme low point in june of 22 and
most of the market outside of ethereum still went on to make lower lows um a few months
a few months after that is there any are there any like price targets that you're looking for as far
as like soul hype or any other altcoin whenever you think the market is bottomed out or were you
just gonna like stick to bitcoin or whatever new narrative happens? I know you were big into Tao, if I'm not mistaken, earlier this cycle.
Yeah, I like Tao.
But honestly, I think it's kind of like a governance shitshow.
And yeah, it's just...
I kind of thought there'd be something more than people just farming the emissions.
But again, that's kind of the story of the cycle, right?
Everyone sort of treated it like a big extraction
machine. But no, honestly, no, no, I don't, I don't, I don't love levels or price targets just
because it kind of depends on what happens when you get there. And yeah, honestly, I find most
of the market to be like pretty uninvestable, which is makes it tough, right?
Hype, obviously, I think is a good coin, but I would not be surprised to see, you know,
kind of Solana style unwind in that.
Because it's like a, it becomes pretty easy to FUD it because it's so kind of well-owned,
right?
You just need volumes to come down, which will happen during like the apathy period.
So the buybacks are small.
You then need, and then you just need like, and then obviously market's going down, right?
People own it.
A lot of people own it.
So they'll just sell.
And then you could have some like reg FUD, right?
That comes in. So there's like a pretty likely like one-two punch
where shit just keeps getting worse in the bear market.
So yeah, I don't know.
Maybe I'm too bearish at the bottom.
But to me, it's like I think you want to play it from the short side
and then you just cover shorts.
And if something's extreme, like Bitcoin's probably the easiest thing.
But Bitcoin's pretty fucked too, to be honest.
Doesn't seem like anyone's like stepping in
and Sailor's done.
You still have DATS that are selling.
So I don't know, probably play it
because it's like just the most liquid one,
but it's definitely tough out there.
And if hype actually does have its uh eight dollar solana moment
hopefully some on chain actually trends um i remember after tge there were like a few
tokens that were actually trending i think you you had an ai coin called vapor go to like 150 or 180 or some shit like that i think per also had um a pretty big
run as well um and also some launchpad that was trending when launchcoin was uh was doing well
i think not many people knew that or even know that hyperliquid actually does have some shitters
that people um that people can bid.
They just think it's a platform and you can buy hype there and,
and that's it.
But there are shitters that people can buy.
It's just,
it's not really,
it's not really liquid.
And it only had one small season after,
after TGE,
but perhaps we do get that run eight bucks and Hyperliquid goes to,
I don't know,
200 bucks or something like that.
Perhaps.
Man, it would be better than Aster with six active users.
Yeah.
Snorlax, what do you think the path is here?
You've been pretty spot on.
For height?
Just majors and I guess height.
Well, I think majors are probably doing just that low-vol consolidation
before the last leg down, at least within this trend.
I'm not going to be hyper-doomer and just assume we go to zero
because I don't think that's going to happen.
But yeah, I think we're probably right before we get some pretty big reveals
and blow-ups.
Maybe it relates to October 10th.
Obviously, I've kind of speculated that a lot of these entities
are kind of already swimming naked, and we have no idea.
So, yeah, I mean, I think the trigger is going to be Devol blowing out,
and that will probably end up creating the bottom in some way, shape, or form.
It's kind of my bias.
Either we're going to go, like, I don't know.
I really think it's going to be a March thing at this point, like March, April, maybe May.
But yeah, this market is loading some very major volatility, man, not just crypto, but
equities as well.
And I think that there is just a natural skepticism towards that because, I mean, right now the narrative is that bears can't push equity prices lower when, you know, I'm kind of viewing it as the flip side.
Bulls have not been able to break the S&P above 7,000 for six months now.
I think that's kind of like this illusion of strength and stability while you have kind of these assets on the periphery like crypto and even small caps that have begun to trend lower.
that have begun to trend lower.
So I think we're right now in the calm before the storm,
that low volatility chop, small range
before we see the final capitulation.
I'm going to add to Tommy's point there.
I hear certain rhetoric within the platform
that people are discussing the fact that, okay, you know,
you need to see follow through, you know, from the sellers. And I think that that frame of mind
and that perspective is completely backwards. You need to see buyers step in in a meaningful way.
Thank you so much. Right. You need to see buyers actually see follow through to the upside, because if not, right, the marginal kind of original have seemed to have left the building.
Excuse me, I can't speak. And as of right now, you know, the market's just in limbo. You know, it's like how long can passive flows support the market's just in limbo. It's like, how long can passive flows support the market?
That's kind of my question right now. I mean, if you look at ARK,
Cathie Wood's baby, I mean, that thing to me is printing what seems to be signal for
the risk on market. It looks like a textbook bear flag, right? It broke structure on the daily. Like what do we think happens next?
You know, I think it's, you know, continuation to the downside is my guess.
You know, it's not a matter of fact of, oh, man, we need sellers to follow through here.
No, you need to see buyers show any signs of life because as of right now, I mean, they
are just like roadkill and they're going to continue
to be roadkill until proven otherwise can you hear me now yeah okay no i didn't go to henhouse i went
to um a fried chicken spot why would you go anywhere to buy your groceries if it's not Hen House, man?
It's like the greatest grocery
store on the planet.
No, I go into the backyard
and I pick the
fresh vegetables out of the garden.
And you take
them out to the woodshed, man.
Yeah, and I go swim with the pigs in the stye.
The woodshed, man.
David, what's up, man?
I must tell you, all I hear sometimes when I'm on this space is when you can find a new entry point.
And I just don't hear when you should sell at an exit point.
Does anyone realize the yield curve is now inverted out to $17 trillion, which is 56% of the curve,
the three-year is now trading under the two-year.
Now, that could go away tomorrow because of the auction.
But we're losing liquidity.
And everyone's like, why is the XLF going down?
Because what is XLF?
The ETF of financial, they sell volatility as a business model.
What is a flatter curve?
A loss of volatility.
We're losing volatility.
Mortgage rates going down means there's a fixed amount of money and a reduced supply
of volatility to sell, which causes rates to go down faster, which then causes the financials to go down.
And as they joined software, which is down 25%, you get more and more selling pressure.
And for those of you who do not understand how institutions work, they're not like hedge funds.
They're not like individual investors.
They make decisions once a month at a board meeting for politicians who know nothing about
markets.
And they get one of the analysts that come in and say, we think you should reduce your
40% tech and comm exposure down to 39 or 38.
And until they get that agreement and signal, people just have to keep that much exposure.
So as software goes down, they got to hide the money and they were buying
hardware and they bought IBM until people realized ABM has no real future. So IBM goes from an all
time high to a one year low in four weeks. I mean, everyone just wants to take on more risk.
This is not a rotation, folks. They call it a rotation.
It's a degrossing.
If you haven't worked at a hedge fund, you're not familiar with the concept possibly, which is you get tapped on the shoulder and say, take your four times leverage down to three.
And since people use Staples Healthcare Utilities to fund tech and financials when you have to just liquidate some of your tech and financials,
you have to buy back the funding source, which was XLP, XLU, XLV. It's no more complicated than that.
This is a degrossing as well as some rotation. And if you think that other than some transitory kickup in a counter trend for an asset that just fell by 50%, while the S&P is down 1%, sailors down 75%, Bitcoin's down 50%, alts are down more.
And all you guys can think about is when is my next chance to throw away more money by averaging down,
praying that that's a low with no evidence to support it and thinking that a volatility spike
is a clean out. That's only true if you're in a bull market, but we're not. We have a global
deleveraging happened. The Japanese 40 year, which went from 4.1 basis points to more than 100 times the yield at 420,
is now back below the level in May.
The yield curve, 210, is back below the liberation day levels.
We're losing our curve.
That is a volatility.
And if you lose volatility in one area you smash volatility in
another area now we will get price discovery lower in these uh these tech companies because
that volatility was held as if it was the same as the s&p but why would the s&p have to go down
very much like it did not go down very much in 2000 when you have rates coming down.
We have a lowest mortgage rate in 42 months for the fixed at 599.
The adjustable fell today to what, 527?
We're going to be at 4% later this quarter, the beginning of next quarter.
Four and a handle.
That's going to mean massive refinancing,
and we're going to eat through all those discounted mortgages issued during COVID.
And then you're going to see a real higher gear on driving these bond yields lower.
And who doesn't want to own a bond when it's going up at double digits versus stocks that are going down?
The challenge the world has is they drove up rates to a level
that they're so competitive now with equities. In Japan,
the equities rose 800%, while yields rose 100 times. It's too much competition.
And so now you have everyone saying, oh, inflation. What is the market telling you?
What are the yields telling you? How do you have a three-year yield below the two-year yield if you really have inflation?
So you can fantasize that you'll just dollar cost average and magically some leprechaun is going to buy an ocean of paper and drive you into P&L.
This is no realistic possibility of that.
We're losing all the volatility in the system.
We're losing all of the liquidity.
We're losing yield. We're losing all of the liquidity. We're losing yield.
We're losing duration.
Nobody has the confidence to borrow
at 3.5% for three years.
What's that telling you?
That you're not going to make...
They don't have the confidence
they'll make 10% in three years,
and some people want to just triple their money overnight.
You have to get realistic
until all of the people stop saying,
where do I DCA?
You cannot find a bottom until all of the people saying,
where's a good DCA entry.
Until you stop buying,
sellers won't have enough sellers to not sell to.
And you've got an ocean of,
of IBIT and that's going to have an ocean of volatility sold against it that's going
to scrape all of the paper out of all of the treasuries and sailor sailor will be stripped
of his coin the one rule of hedge funds don't let anybody know your position amongst all of
your positions sailor has one position and he brags about it. What's his business? He sells volatility
in crypto. You know what? Everybody else can do it now. You can go to the CME, you can deliver your
Bitcoin there, and they'll let you sell a call against it. You can go to iBit, you can give us
some money, and you can sell a call against it. You can go to Matthew Tuttle and buy BITK, not
advice, and you can sell a call against it. Guys, all I ever hear on every one of these spaces,
when's a good time to buy more?
Until you push the price down,
till it's not attractive for a seller to sell or to short,
it cannot find a low.
And now we have yields melting down.
I've told you all mortgage rates will force yields lower.
Even Psycho Centelli, Kramer 2..0 he's finally capitulating and say oh
we might actually get below four percent and if we stay there there's going to be a voracious amount
of buying and then you get stops all the way 380 360 which is the which was the 10 year before the
rate cut cycle started because cutting rates creates synthetic virtual supply of duration
it steepens the yield curve. It helps
the banks, but the banks are telling you it's not enough. They cut 50 on, on, on September 18th,
because on September 11th, Loretta Mester goes on CNBC with Sarah Eisen. I heard it live. She said,
oh she's retired cleveland fed taken over by beth hammock the two of them are lunatics
oh, she's retired Cleveland Fed taken over by Beth Hammock. The two of them are lunatics.
she says oh we should cut 25 sequentially jp morgan's i'll send a spokesperson out the next
day saying we're losing earned interest margin the next day she comes back out the 13th she says
ah we should go 50 so we we've completed the round trip on the 10-year yield for every cut except for the Genesis cut
of 50 on September 18th. When you take that out, you have a very big three and a half year
bull trap on yields or a bear trap on bonds. Bonds around the world are going up in price. The UK tenure hit a new low for one year today.
Nobody's talking about it.
The three-year yield in the US is under the two-year.
Nobody's talking about it.
The XLF, they can't explain why it's going down.
And I'm explaining.
A flatter curve is less volatility,
driving mortgage rates lower,
and that is going to bring all of this Bitcoin down to its knees.
It will not keep its decimal.
Until you folks stop looking for new entries and new average for that magical bounce, you look at this corrective action.
It's so much weaker and limp than the one we had after the original correction.
It's a disaster.
They're all leaking.
We're now down approximately $.15 trillion dollars of loss
and everyone says oh let's all get you know get the troops together you cannot overwhelm the call
sellers there's 500 billion available for call selling and now the cme opened the door anybody
with coin anybody just send it to us we'll let you sell
we'll let you sell calls against it you don't have the ability to withstand this why don't you let
the thing go up a little why don't you let the thing spend some time not going down before your
brain goes to let me throw more of my family's money in a rat hole that I have no shot because
you had the market explode on a 10x of the balance sheet from
um 893 billion up to 8.93 trillion they can't do that again when you cut rates from here
you destroy liquidity people just think oh no we got liquidity the last cuts we're going to get
liquidity this cuts that's just not the way the mortgage function works.
And you should probably learn that before you...
It's very sad for me every time I come on
and I can't hear one person.
There are some negative people,
but even your negative people are saying,
oh, there's a buying opportunity here and there.
Why can't we go into a multi-decade hibernation like silver or gold that doesn't produce any
yields?
I just don't understand how people don't get that unless people start thinking about
lightning, you won't be able to get the price low enough to get a real person to really
want to get in.
And you know how much paper is coming out from these
stable coins, these treasury companies. No real company could afford to buy it because you've got
to recognize the lower of cost or market. And what that does is it destroys their balance sheets
earnings on the quarter. They're not interested. Volatility is not going to blow out massively.
It did when we took it down 15% on a day, which was the day that strategy was reporting,
and people were worried that they'd say, we'll have to sell some coin,
and that would have been a little puke fest. But you're not necessarily going to be able to keep
a 60 RRF of 60 Devol. That's a 4% daily move, 3 plus percent daily move.
It's not doing that much. People will come for sale and they're coming to sell the calls,
they're coming to sell the volatility. So I just beseech you, try to look at some of the models
that say Bitcoin goes up when they print money and the printing of money caused the money supply to go grow and then look at the times when cutting rates does not cause a
growth of the money supply and then you you can maybe save yourself all the rest of your money
that you're going to surrender i feel so badly for people that are going to wake up one day when
bitcoin is below 25k and it's gone down more than 80%.
And they said, but we were told it can only go down 80.
It can only go down 80 when they're increasing the money supply
or the Fed's balance sheet by a factor of 10.
We are not doing that now.
We're not doing that ever again.
That's what created populism.
We do not have price strength for a reason.
Don't reinterpret the price.
The price is your signal.
You lose software.
You lose financials.
The dollar is perking up to a one-month high.
That is terrible for Bitcoin.
It's terrible for gold and silver and oil and industrials.
You're going to end up finding all that money flowing ultimately into those three
sectors staples health care utilities interest rate sensitives mortgages and bonds and as you
watch tlt and zero z go up that's your money going with it and you're busy throwing your money away
by dcaing why don't you watch some of the things that give a couple percent to what's working huh
wait for it to stop working that's all i got i just i'm nauseous everybody even the bears have to buy more if the bears say
oh this is the good price to bring your average cost down it's insane when you think about it
volatility is collapsing in everything because they printed too much money and it's hungry
and it's selling volatility it's not the volatility funds funds. It's the system. All that liquidity saying,
I can't make any money on Bitcoin.
Let me sell a call against it.
When's that going to stop?
When Bitcoin's up 50% in a quarter.
Not when it's up 5% in a quarter.
When they're making more,
selling the volatility.
You've got to look at who's doing what they're doing.
You are their whale exit.
whale exit stop think watch okay that's it and i i love that transition man you you get into uh
Stop.
Think.
Watch.
Okay, that's it.
into your character and then you're like all right that's it it's pretty entertaining man
um oh citrini he asked about citrini can i just give give? I know Citrini. Okay. This was the worst form of burlesque I've ever seen.
It is like Schrodinger's experiment with a cat both alive and dead.
He started off by saying, let's go to 2028 and look back and say, the market peaked at 8,000 for the S&P and 30,000 for the NASDAQ.
I lost the piece over there.
We're not going to 8,000. We're not going to 8,000.
We're not going to 30,000.
We've lost the yield curve.
We're losing financials.
That's pressure.
He also, he is framing this as a GFC 2.0.
We cannot have GFC again.
We had very little equity.
We lost all the equity in the dot-com.
And then the banks refused to refinance. After Fannie Mae blew up and the We lost all the equity in the dot-com. And then the banks refused to
refinance. After Fannie Mae blew up and the banks had all the power, they said, oh, you can refi,
just bring 40% down payment. It was not the agreement you made with them. They changed the
rules. So instead of being homeless, we went from 14 trillion home equity down to eight. Everyone
says, I don't want to be homeless. Let me cut back on Netflix and Starbucks and going to D.R. Horton's and restaurants and no new cars. And all
these companies had a layoff. Look back to dot-com when the NASDAQ fell 83.6, XLK fell 90, and XLK
divided by XLP fell 92.74. You got left with 7.38% of your money
if you didn't go with what's working.
The dot-com didn't produce a recession
because it was all equity.
It was not debt.
And the banks can't stop you
from getting a new lower-end mortgage
because Rocket and United
and more than half of the mortgages
are done by
independence they don't retain the paper the banks are issuing half of what they used to do
they're getting all these mortgages scraped off their balance sheet and they're going to be forced
into buying treasuries we're now having we were eight percent two weeks ago three weeks ago up
from six percent originations of mortgages as the adjustable. Those are the
terrible ones. The banks hate those. Disposable income loves it because you're spending less
money. You could get a six and a quarter mortgage. Excuse me, you get a 520 mortgage right now.
The banks were getting six. David, I actually do have a proposal for you, man. Look, if Hyperliquid gets to a level, say, I want to be gracious, right?
Because it doesn't have to go into the single digits.
But every four years, there's always some crazy shit that happens with an altcoin.
And people think it's over, and it ends up being the biggest scanner.
It happened with ETH in 2018 2018, happened with Sol in 2022,
so maybe it's hype.
But weren't they subject to huge monetary growth
on the balance sheet of the Fed?
So hold on, David.
I have a proposal for you.
Here's the deal.
If it rallies, I say it's flying.
What?
Look, look, look, look.
If Hyperliquid gets to, say, $8 to $12,
David, I am begging you.
Begging you to at least
put in 2%
2% of your available
speculative, whatever.
And if it does a 10x,
honestly, I just
I just
want a milkshake.
A milkshake from five guys, but I would say I...
A milkshake from five guys.
Okay, I certainly would say I'd be more inclined to short it at that level.
Oh my goodness, David, please no.
I'm sorry.
No, no, and I know people that are going on Hyperliquid to train TradFi now, right?
Didn't they just add oil and other stuff to be able to trade yeah i think hyperliquid
at the very least can capture like 50 of wherever robin is what well no robert hood's going to zero
hyperliquid can survive you you don't you don't think uh ken Robinhood? No, no, no, no.
Ken just gave back some cash.
He just gave back some loot.
He doesn't have anything to invest in.
He gave back $5 billion to investors.
But isn't Citadel the largest equity holder for Robinhood?
Like one of the largest equity holders?
But they're giving money back.
The system is getting trouble.
They're not going to bail them out.
The problem is, what happens when we get a limit down day in the NASDAQ
and some of these tool software companies drop 30% to 50% that day?
Crypto, it'll go down by 50% to 75% that day.
Because if you need to raise money and the exchange is closed,
what are you going to sell?
Something that you can sell.
You literally wouldn't be able to sell NASDAQ.
You'll have to sell.
I know Sullivan says that.
He said that a few times where it's like in crypto,
if you see things turning down or just beta in general,
it's the first thing that no no but it's
worse than that that's generally true but what happens if you have an actual limit down day
where they don't allow nasdaq futures to trade because the bid drops it literally does there's
no trading they halt trading but they're not gonna halt trading in crypto so if you got to
raise some money you'll sell everything you can or you'll be sold out you've got to raise some money, you'll sell everything you can, or you'll be sold out. You've got to deliver that liquidity, or you'll be sold out by the exchanges.
Prometheus, you should have David on one of your videos, man.
Prometheus, if you're there.
I'm the most bullish one of anyone on this space.
I just believe we have to go through a period of hibernation, and we have to shake out the week longs.
Anyone who's toing a DCA is definitionally a week long. They're not willing to shake out the week longs anyone who's doing a dca is definitionally
a week long they're not willing to wait for the price to support an ad they're doing it on price
not on price and time price time is the future it's like space time in quantum physics in the
general relativity price time and quantum finance you have to wait for stability you can't wait for just on the way down that's what you're doing
we're losing liquidity at an exponential rate you can deny it we just lost two trillion in igv
microsoft gave up a full two-thirds of a bitcoin since the start of the year where's that money
going you see folks if you have microsoft losing one and a half trillion
and crypto losing one and a half trillion and you don't have people degross their book you're just
leveraging up your book and making yourself more vulnerable to a margin call involuntary liquidation
and uh when we're down 20 on the nasdaq uh we'll go down and down 25 and then one day we'll we
won't be able to open up. David, what's the biggest
loss that you've seen someone take on
the trading floor when you were working on the trading
floor? And I mean someone getting
carted out, lost their
shirt, just in pure
shambles, man. It was in semiconductors.
It was in semiconductors.
Micron.
What happened? Tell us the story
about the individual. Just averaging
down, averaging down
until a gap down and
that was it.
That was it. The problem is
semis are third tier
tech. They're super
cyclical and they're pretending that they're
not. That's it.
They're super cyclical.
And the only reason they're up is because people are trying to get capital exhaust into anything.
If you're selling Microsoft and you have to keep your 40% tech and composition, you have no place to put it but something that's not down.
And you could see from IBM going from new highs to new lows in four weeks. That there's, you know, you need more story.
Like Jensen Wong's cousin from AMD with Lisa Su.
What a brilliant grandmother to have both of them.
Amazing.
Anyway, she told a story today.
Meta is going to buy AMD at 600 for a dollar a share.
So they're going to pump all of their business into amd
well when meta stock price falls 50 from here there ain't going to be any bids it's all
interconnected and it's all based upon credit default swaps uh you can see the blowout of XXCCC, the ETF for C-rated high yield.
It's melting down.
All these private credit companies, they're melting down.
There's nothing wrong with private credit if you're in staples and utilities and healthcare.
But if you're doing tech, we're going to have dark data centers.
There's not enough power for them.
It's a disaster.
They're running out of money. Look at Google. We're going to have dark data centers. There's not enough power for them. It's a disaster.
They're running out of money.
Look at Google.
Watch Google go down in an ugly way because they just raised $20 billion,
and the credit default swaps are going to give them a little of the Oracle treatment when Oracle borrowed just $18 billion and the stock fell 55% in a quarter.
These are not normal things.
These are distorting derivatives.
But we got all kinds of problems
and nobody wants to admit it.
It's sad.
It's very sad.
We're melting down.
Yields are melting down.
Every single veteran guy
with a reputation in the past
has a steepener on.
All the mortgage community has a steepener on.
The creator of the move index has a steepener on.
It's in their brain, and they don't even realize
they're losing a ton on the tail part of that trade,
which is why we're flattening,
because they're getting bought in out of that steepener trade.
And we're just going lower and lower and lower in yield and that's going to cause the dollar to go up everyone
thinks lower yields means convergence between us and other currencies except if you look i didn't
put it up in your nest i put it up in mine if you look at the j the japan 10 year that's the that's
the low yield then you go look at the the um that's just 210
that's just above under two and then the german 270 and then us at 403 and the and the uk at a
new low for the year for one year not year to date 430 we're all flattening kind of like that
that chain stairway on the on the side of a helicopter in an action movie.
David, what's that term that you say, the Pishikaka?
Pishikaka means very little.
Very little.
There's Pishikaka prophets in a steepener right now.
You're getting called in.
Sorry.
Sorry.
Have you ever seen the movie Donnie Brasco?
I have.
Yeah, I saw a few clips when Al Pacino says,
I'm known in all the five boroughs.
Forget about it.
I'm not far from the forget about it sign,
which is between Queens and Brooklyn on the Belt Parkway
near the Staten Island Bridge.
Forget about it.
But really, please, folks, put a little more effort in watching price
and not watching prayers, not watching hope, not watching hopium.
It's a real problem.
I'm not joking now.
If you see the yield curve go down and mortgage rates go down
and Bitcoin following it, that's orderly.
That's organized.
That's the way it should be.
Bonds went down for five years.
Bitcoin surged by 2.4 trillion up to 2.67 trillion.
We're reversing that.
Notice that.
Wait for that relationship to deviate.
Wait for yields to fall and Bitcoin to not fall
for more than a day, more than a week, more than a month.
You'll be happy you do
that. Not advice. Don't buy things melting down or sliding. And thinking that a vol spike and
an accelerated decline is adequate for anything more than a counter trend of a de minimis value,
you're really just burning your money and giving it to a counterparty. I'd rather you give it to charity
than give it to some traitor at Jane Street.
It's disgusting.
Get some religion.
Did you see what they did
to terraform lab? Yes, yes.
It's really called
legal arbitrage. They have more money for lawyers
even though what they did was corrupt.
They should be sued out the
tookus.
Yeah, that day destroyed so many lives.
Yes, yes.
It affected crypto for a while, man.
You're talking like tens of billions of dollars.
Well, you could make an argument that it helped people
because by breaking the velocity of Bitcoin and stopping it from going to 126 up to 200, you save people from buying in a 200 and watching it go down to 10.
You can make that argument.
Tommy, I mean, Sullivan, sorry, I know you go by Sullivan now.
Sullivan, you have said that the bottom perhaps is somewhere where
it makes you uncomfortable think of a level that it makes you uncomfortable and then just think
then take a decimal off a bit lower i think for eth it's definitely sub 1000 man like if there's
no that's where it accelerates that's where it accelerates yeah lower it's e's e's definitely Yeah, lower. ETH definitely has that opportunity to go sub 1K.
It's like, who the fuck is buying ETH right now?
There is no sailor.
It's only Tom Lee.
Tom Lee's counterparty.
Is it true that Tom Lee has a fund with the greatest amount of losses in history?
Yeah, I think it surpasses one of the funds from the GFC,
from the Great Financial Crisis.
Tom Lee has effectively lost more on paper for his clients than some of his clients.
And then the granny funds, granny shots?
Yikes.
Who even knows what's in there?
But you understand.
You've released people from
a crypto only mindset you yeah yeah we've talked stocks here we talked about sandisk um amd before
it had that rally same thing with and also great american coca-cola mcdonald you know what's you
know what's crazy man i've said this for a number of years now, but a crypto bros, and if anyone can clip this, all these spaces are recorded, but I've said this for years.
The greatest dream that your average crypto participant has is making it with meme coins or altcoins, whatever you want to call them, and then pouring it into Coca-Cola stock and living it and living off of those dividends.
That's exactly it.
Yes, but you know what they do in Australia?
Their goal is to do that, but they don't want to buy Coca-Cola.
They want to buy McDonald's, but they ended up working at McDonald's
because they burned their bags.
You know what's crazier is like RFK came in and he's like, we're going to ban all this stuff from Coca-Cola and all these fast food things.
And then it's like year to date, they're the best performing companies.
Yes, but why is that?
But why is that?
Why did I say that that would necessarily on a deterministic basis happen?
We are losing global liquidity and the system is degrossing.
are losing global liquidity and the system is degrossing.
Those were the source of funds for 20 or 30 years to buy innovation,
and now they took innovation to the level of innovation.
That's crypto.
Michael Saylor peaked on November 21, 2024,
almost 11 months before crypto.
And then crypto and software peaked okay but
the s&p is staying stable because of the components that are getting the flow and the
lower mortgage rates go the faster the money will come out of tech and the faster it'll go into
bonds and and and low beta stuff and i think low beta becomes high beta. As more and more people
say, I'm out of this crypto nonsense. It's so bag holding. I'm just holding the paper and it goes up
and down. I make nothing. Let me go into something that's working. So they started going into gold
and silver. Now, when the dollar goes up, gold and silver volatility will come down. The people
get out of there. Dollar goes up, energy will come down. Dollar goes up, industrials go down. The only thing that'll be going up are things that like
a strong dollar, lower import costs. And that is, you know, Staples, healthcare, utilities,
utilities and healthcare. Did utilities make a new all-time high today? Yes. How about Staples?
Yes. How about Microsofty? How about Adobe? CRM? Salesforce? How about Intples yes how about microsofty how about adobe crm salesforce how about intuit how
about anything in igv any new highs on any of this stuff lately everyone's a bag holder i'm so smart
i can understand tech you know who's smart the market the market understands tech and you know
how much excess capital flowed into this freak show Carnival Barker show?
It's crazy.
You put $25 trillion into eight companies that aren't worth combined $5 trillion.
You made this NVIDIA.
I have someone on my team.
She says NVIDIA is worth about a trillion.
She's a PhD in electrical engineering uh worked at one of the big chip
companies for two decades its ip is not that much special and you know we found out today
she was right because his cousin uh lisa sue at amd said oh we could do everything that
that nvidia does as long as you pay us to do it and that's called meta that's so meta basically
is going to be buying a lot more nvidia chips they're going to get all from uh from amd and then they're going to get paid on
the back end on the stock so please don't be bag holders for whale exits don't you've got
half of the way left you've got half of your money left do you have to throw it all out is it
necessary that all of your capital is extinguished
when you could park even 1% of it into something rising? 2%. Repeat that when it's working.
Instead of saying, no, I'm going to DCA down to a single digit and then hold it for 30 years,
and it'll go back to 100,000 or a million or 10 million, except the million won't be worth anything. The hamburger won't be costing $10 for a Happy Meal.
It'll be $1,000 for the Happy Meal.
So congratulations.
You'll still be only able to buy the same thousand Happy Meals.
It's sad.
I think the last time I had a Happy Meal was six years ago before I got COVID.
How much was it then it was probably like three bucks and how much was what how much was crypto then
uh i remember i was buying as much chain link as i can so i think link at that time post-covid
crash was like five bucks seven bucks and then it ran up to like so that's two
happy meals yeah and so what did link go to link went to like 50 what's it now
uh probably like 12 i would so basically you get let me let me check you now. You get fewer Happy Meals now than you did before. Oh, my God.
Chainlink is at $8.
So you can't even buy a whole Happy Meal.
Oh, my goodness.
You're going to need 20 coins for a happy ending.
We got priced out.
We got priced out.
You're not even watching these things.
Of Chainlink with the Happy Meal, man. That's the crazy thing. I'm not even watching these things chain link with the happy meal man that's
i'm not that's the crazy thing i'm not even is that a better way to frame things how many happy
meals can you buy i don't mean happy endings i mean happy meals all right yeah yeah there's
actually you know what's funny about like sad happy endings happy you're sad actually a guy there's there's happy endings
um there's actually a guy in uh in miami he has a whole tiktok account and he goes he goes into
like these weird asian massage parlors that offer that shit and he gets out this like big flash
thing and he's like this is of the devil and he and he a photo, and it's this huge fucking thing,
and they end up getting arrested.
That's not good.
That's not good.
Yeah, yeah.
But can you think instead of dollars and think of Happy Meals, a price unit?
Because it doesn't matter how many dollars you get for a Bitcoin
if you can't buy enough Happy Meals.
If the Happy Meal goes up by 10, it doesn't matter if the bitcoin goes by 5
you've lost if you look at the chain link founder founder uh sergey nazarov or whatever his name is
um if you look at any of the photos that have been taken after august of 2020 which is the peak of DeFi summer, he is not smiling. He is not smiling.
You know, maybe he needs a happy meal.
He might need a happy ending.
Yeah, I mean, it looks like he's had a plethora of happy meals.
Right.
But speaking of happy meals, Tommy, what's the alpha behind just like going to a fast
food joint and just having a burger and not French fries or milkshakes, man man is that how like you've got you've gotten your frame mogging physique just let me
just have a burger um no soda no fries no drinks that is how i do it man i mean you're just
consuming i mean if you're getting like two double cheeseburgers, right? That's plenty of protein. Sure. There's going to be some fat in there, but you're not having potatoes or, um, or sugar from soda, which I mean, you'd be surprised
at how much healthier that makes fast food. Uh, but yeah, man, I can't even believe a happy meal
is eight bucks. Um, that's actually pretty shocking with no toy, with no toy, bro. No toys.
pretty shocking with no toy with no toy bro no toys they took out the toys they they they took
the toys away from us man thanks trump they took the toys away from us man um let me see where avax
is at oh my gosh david like you would not no but i'm asking you to just find a frame of reference
a happy meal on new York Subway token.
It's three bucks on the New York Subway.
You know what's crazy about the New York Subway and AVAX?
AVAX and Link are at the same price, and AVAX a few years ago actually had ads on the New York Subway back in late 2021.
They actually ran a whole marketing campaign for new york subways which is you can't get three rides you can't get three rides for for a link
coin you can't get on the subway three times three bucks that's nine dollars that's more than eight
you've got to stop thinking in terms of what's bitcoin
going to be how many happy meals will you be able to buy not many more that's right if anyone is
listening don't ask yourself how many dollars the coin is how many happy meals yes and for those of you creeps out there ask how many happy endings all right oh my goodness
man um chiefings out do you trade equities or are you just sticking uh sticking to crypto
uh generally stick to crypto david i really enjoyed that that rant it made me honestly even
more bearish than i am now um david what do you think gold does? I'm bullish. I'm bullish. It's just we have to hibernate.
I mean, yeah. I mean, look, like you said, right? Time is of the essence. So what do you think of,
I'm assuming you think gold performs poorly if you obviously get this, you know.
Well, for now, gold is great for traders. You've got this elevated near 99% level volatility.
And volatility needs to come down and stay down before you lose your trading entertainment. Silver is near 90 for its trading vol.
Very high levels of volatility, lots of money to trade. But the dollar doesn't seem to have
any place to go but up. We're less than three quarters of a percent below a 50-year trend line. Not some
pishikaka, one week, two week, one month, four hours, one year. 50-year trend line, 200 quarters
is less than 99. We cross over that. If you look at all the timeframes, a quarter, a month, a day, a week,
not exactly that order,
they're all clustered right around here.
That means every structural vol trader,
every structural dynamic trader,
they're all going to have to buy on the way up.
There's no counter positioning.
And it's a 14-year level short.
It's the greatest level of short in 14 years.
The dollar's been going up since 2008 when it was 70.805, 71,
after having fallen in six years, 50 from 121.2.
So we go up in dollar.
It's not good for risk assets.
It's not good for anti-dollar assets.
And it's going to be great for mortgage rates.
You cut off if you're still speaking.
No, somebody called and I just had to enter.
So it's good for traders right now,
but look at this cycle. you'll have to take gold
below 3 000 you'll have to take silver back below 50 um when the dollar is going up because
everybody's short the dollar please think about this doesn't it make sense to short the u.s treasury
as rates are going up take that money convert it out of dollar send it overseas and buy some
garbage pile company you're making money because you're making money on the short and the short
is going down more than your interest expense and everybody thought oh lower rates let me short the
dollar david david how are you are you playing Are you just out of the market?
So I was short crypto two weeks after Bitcoin denominated in its own volatility. It's an endo vega.
If you use just math, Bitcoin price divided by Devol, it peaked on September 18th.
Take two closing weeks.
That takes you to October 1st.
I put on an S-bit, a double short Bitcoin.
Bitcoin has its crash.
And I covered on February 5th, I think the post was 653.
Between 61 and, okay, between, great, I don't have to go thank you very much
okay no i had a meeting it was fortunately canceled because my friend came to town
um so i covered then because volatility spiked 80 in one day do you want to be on the other side
of that not me and that was the of strategy's upcoming earnings when people were afraid that they would acknowledge
they have to sell some coin.
And that would have put some selling pressure.
So I'm on flat.
I have no position right now.
I'm not interested with volatility above,
let's say, 45 right now.
There's too much risk that nobody will sell it,
and then they could just run it.
They could run Bitcoin up to 75,000 in no time 80 i have no interest in that i want it to be more contained with a lower
volatility so i have more confidence that it will continue the trend lower sooner because i'm not
going to take a big you know i'm not interested in getting in and getting stopped out but the
volatility is too high would you short it from higher like if you think eath
i i kind of agree with you i i think under 1k is actually the that's that's one thing no that's
the water should know then you've already lost three trillion dollars out of three point out
of 4.28 trillion and you're going to have all these um stable coin all these things the uh
the treasury companies they're all going to have to
get rid of that paper. But the real watershed moment is when MicroStrategy is trading at about
15 or 12 billion dollars, less than their preferreds and their converts. And that's when
guys are going to short it into a hole and force them to have to start selling coin and buy the shares back.
So people, you know, short coin and short sale.
It's the same thing as like people shorting oil and buying bonds, trying to get oil prices, then inflation lower and cause the Fed to react and cut rates and lower their funding costs.
So if you think ETH is going, let's say, what do you think, like 500, 400?
I don't see a floor for any of this stuff
so then would you
would you short if so your short
trigger essentially would be
lower volatility no I need lower volatility
I'm not interested
in having it up there under high volatility
and someone making some crazy statement
and gets ripped up by Tuchus
you know I want to see
Pishikaka volatility.
It's controlled.
Real money will be there.
They'll sell the vol and we just move it right lower.
I'm just not interested.
I got,
I got half of the move.
I was two times leveraged.
It's not like it was benign.
I'm just not interested in a symmetry.
They can move this around three days at 3% or 4%
is 10%. I'm not interested
in that.
I just want to wait for some liquidity to come
back to its volatility.
Because where do I think the volatility
is going? That's the point.
We were at 35%
on monthly closes. We were 31-41%
on the lows.
Okay? But monthly closes we are 31 41 on the lows okay but um i think it goes into the teens and maybe the single digits e or you're saying the volatility the volatility you think single
digits further volatility yeah and so and so that means like Bitcoin vol was 31 and Bitcoin was 25.
So if its volatility is going to go to 10, then Bitcoin goes to 4 or 5,
where it was during Trump's first administration.
And it may or not hold.
Because everyone's making a fortune shorting the volatility.
And every time people get excited and they buy, they lifting vol that's more money for real money they're making the money
shorting the vol they're not making their money long or short the paper they're making their
money short the hopium and the enthusiasm and until they're short and drive that short down
and then bitcoin's going up while volatility's low that's when I'm going to really love it.
But now it's only a trade and I'm not going to trade it always.
Yeah.
Yes.
Did you say something?
Did I lose you?
Just turn the mic off.
super helpful.
it's just,
I'm not interested in being knocked around.
I like when there's asymmetry.
When I get 15% down in Bitcoin in an afternoon,
volatility spikes from 50 to 90.4,
what do I have to stay around?
I got the move I wanted.
Yeah, I covered 65.
I bought like 63, sold 68. so that's the fine that's so
that's great but you'll get you'll get good pieces that you can stay in when it's less noisy and you
know i mean one of the things i do is i don't just denominate bitcoin divided by dev vol I add them so I got the you know the 59 on the on the D vol and I got the 64 on the
Bitcoin and I just as a you know slapdash that's 123 you know I like to see that go lower as that
goes lower I get more comfortable there's more selling pressure more you know atmospheric
downward pressure I like I'd like to deal with other people.
I don't want to be alone.
I'm not a hero.
I don't want to be a hero.
You like that?
It's just everyone only wants to buy,
and institutions only want to sell the volatility,
and I think the institutions win.
We don't have money supply growth.
We have a flatter curve.
Yeah, I just struggle with the fact that,
I mean, I agree with everything you say
in terms of the path where this is going,
but then monetizing it is just difficult.
If you have patience,
you'll wait for the better setup and execute.
I'd rather wait for a better setup
and zoom in the capital,
leverage it a little and watch it closely.
I mean,
but there are other things right now that your capital can be doing.
Like Staples,
healthcare utility and bonds and mortgage.
They're just going up.
You know,
you got to change the order,
make the money in the Coke and then buy the bitcoin with
your dividends instead of the lobby's order make the money on the alts and and earn your money it's
just we have people shorting these quality companies forever okay okay so you have to when they unwind that you have to lift your short they're lifting their
shorts in treasuries they're lifting their shorts in low beta and the problem i suspect is they'll
start lifting their shorts so aggressively that the crowd that's listening here will go on hyper
liquid and say hey i can trade coke on hyperliquid. I can trade Walmart on hyperliquid.
Let me run over the shorts because the derivative structure in these companies is insane.
There's no call skew to speak of at all-time highs.
That's unprecedented.
The utility next era, the biggest one.
It's unprecedented.
You can't have people stay in business if they're shorting an all-time high
without charging a premium.
That's ego.
You might have seen three weeks ago,
Staples hit an all-time high, and then they have record put selling.
Okay?
And then the same day, Microsoft can't find a floor,
and everyone's buying calls on Microsoft.
This is the opposite of what you should be doing.
But it's brainwashing.
And Wabi lets you get on brainwash.
He lets me deprogram you folks.
That's why I come here.
To try to help you guys keep your money.
Instead of be bag holders for
whale exit.
It's craziness.
Watch the curve. We're now inverted two year three year that's 17 trillion
not a pishikak 170 million coin it's 17 trillion dollars it's more than 50 percent of outstanding
marketable treasuries with 13 and a half basis points from the five year being underneath
that's going to drive mortgage rates to 575 and 5.5 and the adjust rates in the
fours. We're going to have so much activity in housing, it's going to massively flatten the
curve. And everybody's steep. Why don't we run over some shorts ourselves as a team? Why don't
we run over some shorts together instead of getting run over ourselves? David, what do you think the sequence is for sailor to actually sell some coins
you'll have to take it to a 25 discount to coin where people have enough of a spread to start
really leaning on it to shake it out so like if you get a strategy down into the 60s or 70s, that's when there'll be more chatter that it's going to come out.
Right.
Because what are you going to do?
If you have a trading down there,
they'll cross all the ownership of that,
you know, and then the people vote out the board.
I don't care what he says.
Oh, I got voting control.
He doesn't have voting control
anymore does he i don't know what's true when it comes to him what i do know is when micro strategy
is now down 80 times 75 times as much as the s&p 500 75 times as much and he's saying i i'm the
only one selling bitcoin volatility no everybody's selling it and he's going lower and. And he's saying, I'm the only one selling Bitcoin volatility.
No, everybody's selling it.
And he's going lower and lower, and he did at-the-money sales to buy some more coin.
He's doing his preferreds, which is just inviting people to use the strategy, the MSGR, as a short to hedge off.
And we've got nowhere to go.
It's nowhere to go but low.
It's leading the train.
The S&P is not going down.
What do you think is going to happen when the XLV,
excuse me, when the yield curve flattens more, inverts more,
and the XLF joins this software, they bring hardware down,
the S&P starts getting dragged down 5%, 8%.
Where the hell is the strategy going to be then?
Is that what everyone's going to be buying?
No, everyone's going to be dumping it.
It's goodbye.
It was an idea that had its time, and he lost his mind.
He has his fancy, I'm going to own 100,000 coins.
He's going to run out of capital before that.
How much is he losing on the coins he's gonna run out of capital before that how much is he losing on the coins
he just bought his his buying power has diminished like a ton already you can see the the more he
buys the more the stock goes down yeah it's ego the guy's gonna crash and burn what what do you
what do you think is the fate of Saylor ends up being
when this is all said and done?
Well, he was under an SEC investigation,
and he had to pay a huge fine back in 2000.
MicroStrategy fell 90.8% in 38 days
from March 10th to April 17th in 2000 2000, it was in the New York times.
I post that frequently.
In fact, why don't I post it now for you folks, just to show you what a good guy this is.
He lost you 90.8%.
And here it is.
I found it.
When you get these, okay, there it is.
I'm going to post, I'm going to swing it up into the nest. So you don't have to hunt it. When you get these, okay, there it is. I'm going to post.
I'm going to swing it up into the nest so you don't have enough to hunt it.
So this is Michael Saylor.
They don't have his picture.
They just have real networks and Global Crossing, both companies that don't exist anymore.
But he's down 90.8% since April 10, and this was printed on April 8.
New York Times, not David Levinson print.
It's New York Times.
This guy is very capable of destroying liquidity.
He's Tom Lee on steroids.
There's nothing there.
He has an idea.
He doesn't realize it's now institutionalized and commoditized, selling volatility, and that's it for him.
There's too much money out there.
When you print all that M2, when you print all that balance sheet, it's going to turn on you.
When you're printing at an accelerating rate and the velocity of money is rising and you get your balance sheet from $893 billion to $8.93 trillion, you could buy anything practically.
Guess what? It's unwinding,
and we're seeing the curve flatten. The rates are too high. The theory of policy equivalence means if you have falling inflation and you don't cut, you're hiking. Greenspan hiked when we didn't
have falling and rising inflation on March 25th, 1997. And 99 days later,
Thailand started a chaos, contagion, that all the commodity countries around the world,
all the emerging market and commodity countries, lost their currencies.
David, what are you looking for in terms of, let's say, like know, like you pointed out, right? Liquidity is clearly
turning lower and that probably continues to trend. I know. I think it accelerates lower.
In other words, it gets worse. Right. Right. And then in theory, right? The only thing that could
stop that is like something breaking. What are you? No, no, no, no, no, no. If they cut rates
massively in the short run, they could steepen the curve, but now they have to do 50s.
25s won't help.
We just had a series of 25s.
They didn't help.
The 10-year is below every cut except for the Genesis 50 on September 18, 2024.
So if we do not get that, Trump has to agree to fund the government with 30-year paper.
But then the problem is you run out of two-year paper, but then the problem is you run
out of two-year paper, and the other problem is you don't get mortgage rates down, and that's
a signature promise. So that's not a probability. So our long-term rates are going down, and we are
dragging down the Japanese tenure, the UK tenure, and we're forcing down the German tenure, who
pretended like they're going to spend all the
money in the world to buy bombs and again apparently they're not so the rates are all
falling you have a new one-year low 10-year rate on the UK now it's the size of California so it's
not that important but it is signal and when and they're going to be cutting rates again. And international governments will be
cutting, Western, G7, they'll be cutting rates because the flatter our curve, the stronger
America gets. Because 75% of our credit comes away from banks and housing in particular benefits
from lower rates. No other country in the world has that because they all have fixed rates.
from lower rates. No other country in the world has that because they all have fixed rates. We
have the prepayable. Do you think the market then just essentially forces the Fed's hand?
Does Trump force the Fed's hand? No, it's the market. It's the market. It's the dollar going
up too much and killing semiconductors. If you look look at the chart IGV divided by SMH,
it's the weakest it's ever been. If you look at NVIDIA divided by SMH, that's a 20-month low.
People are trying to get out of that. And the capital exhaust is going and hiding in other
things. But when you get stronger dollar, the SMH won't be able to have the free cash flow.
None of these companies will be able to have the cash flow to honor their commitments. And the credit default swap guys will come to town
and the credit default swap gals don't shortchange them. They'll just be leaning on the stock.
Look at Oracle. There was 144. It was 344. So you think kind of, right, essentially credit markets
will guide the Fed. And then I was more asking, are you watching?
Like what are you specifically watching?
The yield curve is the most important thing in the world
because the yield curve is squeezing out Vega juice, the volatility.
Vega is volatility.
The volatility juice, what is a bank, broker, dealer, curve, and credit?
A flatter curve they don't like because the curve is a volatility.
Mortgage volatility, the OAS, the option adjusted spread, that's tight.
Private credit has squeezed down credit spreads on the non-AI garbage.
And so the banks aren't making any money.
And then when you have the independent mortgage brokers under prepayment speeds picking up,
scraping those mortgages off and sending them
over to an unleveraged pension or insurance company, you lose nine turns of credit expansion
that a bank would have otherwise done. And now these other places aren't doing anything.
So we're just going to lose all the liquidity. And the further along the curve that the low
yield on the curve is, that's the less paper
you have to run through to get the biggest bull market in bonds and forever.
Nobody has flat the curve.
No one thinks we're having a bull market.
And the only thing holding it back from being mega bull tail was elevated volatility.
And that was pumped up constantly by the Fed with all of their cuts and the QT reduction
and the mini QE that they just put in.
But just watch the curve.
Watch the dollar.
Remember, lower yields were supposed to always drive down the dollar.
Higher treasury prices, unattractive to have to overpay for treasuries, and you get the lower
yields. Well, those were collateral all over the world. And at a certain point, our falling yields
will no longer prop up the euro. When our falling yields don't prop up the euro, the story goes bad.
And when you have a 14-year positioning short the dollar, and a weaker yield doesn't weaken the dollar,
it's called being priced in. And a stronger dollar is toxic waste. You know what happened in 22.
Powell took the dollar from 1990 to 144 and you lost 33% on the market, on the NASDAQ.
You just watch the curve. It's the easiest thing.
Do you kind of reject then Snorlax's thesis that I kind of think,
I mean, I heard your argument in terms of just right.
Big money is definitely like nonstop selling volatility.
Like I have it on.
It's institutional.
There's 200 billion of IBIT.
And the CME is allowing people to deliver bitcoin in and then sell calls
against it but like you said right so obviously sailor and the dats were a huge like vol dampening
you know for now everyone's joining them everyone's joining them in that yeah you don't think
leaving the market fills like opens up a gap where vol can somewhat unpin.
You think new money will just come in and just sell it down.
It's on new money.
It's just money.
You have all this money in IBIT and all the ETFs, and now they're creating new ETFs that have an embedded shortfall like BITK, my friend Matt Tuttle.
Not advice, folks, but you have your Bitcoin.
And which is going to do better i'm thinking
ai causes the fight yeah that's true um the the the um the deterioration
in volatility is the tension between hopium and chaos and people just doing what they do naturally, which is if you're not making money
on gamma, which is the price, sell volatility to subsidize that. And if you measured IBIT against
IBIT short the call, who wins? IBIT short the call. So money is going to flow into that and
the strategy is only going to grow. And people think, oh, there's less value in crypto.
It'll be down to $1 trillion. It's $2.2 trillion right now. When it goes to $1 trillion,
it'll be less difficult to hold up. That's the wrong thinking. The more it goes down,
the more P&L goes into the hands of the people that short the vol must say,
all of your rallies are pishikaka. me just stay short write my vol make my money
and i'll just overwhelm them and they'll be right if if you were managing an institutional fund and
you i'm opening it this week well i'm loving so let's say you were testing at goldman sachs
using riptide as the platform you're solely confined to to crypto markets what do you do
i quit i quit i would never do that i can't i have to go with the
money's going i'm not interested in taking vacations for 25 years
no i mean that's not a serious question if you say when it when you decide that there's a trade
in crypto what would that trade be you can ask that question. You can't say I can only trade garbage.
Well, that's kind of the, assume the problem set exists, right?
No, no.
I will be trading crypto from the short side,
either through time or through volatility.
Either vol comes down or price goes up.
I just got to give me the address.
David, are you a seller of all here?
No, because I have a brain.
No, no, no.
I got it.
It was very well contained.
It was held at 50, which held for a long time.
And then you took it up 80% in two hours.
Okay.
Yep. And it started to fly.
So I'm down.
I'm positioned 2x Bitcoin.
So I'm up 30% in a day.
And all of a sudden, volatility spikes and stops me in my tracks
i'm out all of the energy went into the volatility i'm not playing that game
yeah so so what i need is so what that's called is that's called a fifth moment event. That is not volatility.
That's not even kurtosis.
That's rising kurtosis.
That means the ability for volatility to accelerate means there's zero liquidity in it.
I'm not interested in playing that game.
I'm not a trader.
I position things.
I'm not going to go in and go out in a day.
I have people on my subscribers, people on my space.
They do that and they love it.
It's not for me.
They said, oh no, that's not going to go to a hundred.
I said, you know, they thought it would take weeks.
I said, I don't know about you, but I don't know if this is going to hold 50.
And then I'm out.
When volatility is moving and price isn't that's on my
game that's an institutional game and i'm not that size institution at this time i'm starting up again
okay now you need big balance sheet i'm not interested there'll be a time not far from now
when we get a flatter curve weaker softer and when semiconductors start to soften up
and people are making money short semiconductors, then we get some gold lift.
We get, excuse me, some dollar lift.
We get some dollar lift.
That's going to get gold down.
That gold money is going to go into bonds, you know, TLT, GLD, that trade.
You start getting that unwound.
You get your bid.
You take TLT to 95, you know you know another four percent up you take it through
the year high plus two months you're you're just going to suck all the volatility out of bitcoin
i'll be in that party i'm much more interested in being short bitcoin when vol's below 50
with a tight stop that vol goes up i'm covering my. But I need containment of the volatility. I'm not going to let someone
move this thing 10% against me. And you said essentially what you're watching for at the low
is you want to see the steepening stop and then Bitcoin just sort of flatline.
When you said, are you talking about the yield steepening?
You said earlier in the space that you'll know it's time to buy Bitcoin when essentially the yield curve either stops steepening or Bitcoin.
No, flattening, flattening, flattening.
Sorry, flattening, flattening, flattening.
Yeah.
So that's a big problem.
That's a big problem, the way you frame it.
Because everyone steeped the curve.
and my view is the curve doesn't just flatten it inverts through the policy-driven steepening
And my view is the curve doesn't just flatten.
of minus 111 in two points in 2023 so i think we're going to invert hundreds of basis points
right so it's and what's going to happen is they're going to have to raise rates
because the economy will be growing at four or five percent.
You know, this to me is the 70s.
We have so much money pump and so much craziness.
We have an ocean of deflation, but we're not going to have a recession.
And so I think we're going to go through deflation, and they're going to fight that deflation so hard,
we're going to get crazy inflation.
And the dollar will just melt down,
and there'll be so much money to be made
in commodities and cryptos and things like that.
But I think it's absolutely insane,
anybody being long as the yield curve is flattening.
It's a fundamental delusion of hopium.
Any of these crypto alts crap, it's just insane.
Because we're losing liquidity, you can see it evaporate in front of our eyes.
Seeing someone dump a staple to buy a crypto or an alt or a parallel is just toxic, it's harmful, and I think it's hateful.
I mean, crypto is always the canary
it always goes first right micro strategy is now leading the way isn't it right well so then so what
would you look for then i'd look for strategy to stop going down faster than bitcoin how about that
is that enough that already that already happened. Your math is different than mine.
Strategy is down 75%, and the S&P is down one.
Okay?
Wait for the S&P to start going down a little more.
My math is different than mine.
Can we do a Mike Alfred bull post versus David Bear post off here?
You just said micro strategy versus Bitcoin, David,
and then you change it to micro strategy versus the S&P.
You do that a lot.
You realize you like change.
You're taking my words out of context.
MicroStrategy is down 75 versus the S&P.
Bitcoin is down 50 versus the S&P.
And strategy started its decline on November 21, 2024.
Bitcoin didn't start until October 6, 2025. And other than a little compression, I need some time. If it actually holds, then I would be buying strategy
and then I'd buy Bitcoin after time. But I'm not doing anything inside a two-month confirmation period
when a thing is in straight freefall.
So I need confirmation in price, not confirmation in hope.
That's fine.
I think you said the other day, though, that you think IRN is going to zero.
Is that correct?
No, I never said zero.
What did you say?
I said it's going to go below its year low, and it's worth a lot less.
A lot less. A hell of a lot less
and anyone buying it i think is going to have their head examined but where is it going
in your opinion i don't think it's going to hold the year low which is which is what 28 after hours
no it's five eight year low five the one year low not year to date low. Got it. So from April of last year at the absolute bottom when it bounced off $5.
Yeah. Yeah, I don't think it'll hold that.
Do you understand the value of...
Yeah, I do actually.
Yeah, I do understand.
No, I'm asking you, I didn't finish the question.
Okay, finish the question. I know the answer.
No, you don't.
Do you understand what the pricing is for one gigawatt plus sites in the market right now versus one year ago?
Do you know what it will be in two years?
Right now, it's still going up.
Do you know what it will be in two years? I don't know, and you don't know.
Nobody knows anything.
That's right. But a flattening yield curve will drive it down.
Well, supply and demand still applies even irrespective of rates.
A dollar going up is going to shut down all of this.
You're going to have dark fiber everywhere.
We had dark fiber everywhere.
We're going to have dark data centers everywhere.
Okay.
Listen, we're going to disagree.
You have an agenda for people, because you're on the board,
to be buying that company,
and I have an agenda for people because you're on the board to be buying that company and i have an agenda for people to not lose money so we will see over time how this doesn't hold the the recent low of
the 39 and change and people say it's one of the ugliest charts they've seen if just looking at
that i don't think this crypto hopium stuff can survive without a massive hibernation period.
And you think it's not needed.
So we just disagree on the hibernation timeframe.
And that's it.
I'm bullish on a lot of the stuff later on.
But the hibernation and the just higher cost of capital, the explosion higher in dollar,
the double-digit returns in mortgages and treasuries are going to want people to exit
this toxic waste as fast as possible many of them won't survive david you're older than me so you
remember that rates were significantly higher than they are now back in early 2000 late 90s
you know we're talking seven i remember the 80s yeah and so and so you realize that the bubble in the dot-com stocks at that time far exceeds even now.
Not even close.
Not even close.
Not even close.
The rates are much lower?
No, no.
Real rates are higher, friend.
And the AI is significantly larger and generating more productivity and economic value.
Yeah, but that's because they ran the economy hot.
Do you understand Greenspan didn't cut, let the market fall, the Nasdaq 57% in nine months and 10 days for March
10th, March 24th, 2000. He let it go straight down. He let the yield curve invert 134 basis
points to deflate the innovation expansion that he allowed to be creative because the Y2K and the
LTCM before. Our current guy, Jerome Clown Powell,
he's emptying the chamber. He's down to less than 3% on the deferred SOFR contracts. There's nothing
left. You're now having mortgage rates go to 43-month lows. Mortgages are so much more powerful
than yields on treasuries. That's a $13 trillion engine. That's just melting down. We're down a 527 on the seven-year fixed.
We're below 520.
Do you know what's going to happen when we're below 499 in this selling season?
Everybody's steeped the curve, and the curve is flattening.
We're going to have one of the greatest short squeezes in bonds ever.
It's going to make real rates rise. And what you're not getting is
we had a 6.15 10-year back in the dot-com era. The curve inverted, but we still had massive
inflation. Right now, our yields are so much lower. It's signaling inflation is so much lower.
And so we're going to have higher real rates, and that's toxic for gold and innovation equities.
We will get back to negative real rates like we had under Biden with a 9.1% inflation in June of 2022,
when the Fed, instead of going from plus 75 on June 16, 2022, to July 28 going a hundo,
they stayed and that was it. 91 days later, the biggest bull market of all time from a dollar
value. We are seeing rising real rates and that's what's dragging treasury prices and mortgage
yields, treasury yields and mortgage yields down. There's nothing that can stop it, no amount of hopium.
And all of these longer-duration treasuries all over the G7,
they are flattening.
That's the end of our banks.
These banks are just toxic.
They got big, big problems.
Yesterday, they said, came out of the blue.
No, it's the flattening of the curve.
Before you came on, we were inverted out to the three-year.
So we're losing liquidity.
We're going to lose it at a faster rate.
And as great as a company as iron may be in the future,
the challenge that all of these are going to have is we have rising real rates
and we're going to have a shortage of dollars in the globe
that people were shorting our treasuries, converting the currency outside,
and they're going to have to buy it all back. And this 18-year trend higher in the dollar from 70.805 in 2008 is crossing over very soon
the 50-year trend line, and you go stop that freight train. I'm not. I'm riding with that
dollar freight train, and it's going to take all this stuff with it. We'll have a little fun in
Staples Healthcare Utilities and interest rate sensitives, mortgages and bonds, but ultimately
it's only bonds that go up. And then the cycle turns and we go right back into commodities and
crypto and tech and iron and all these other things. Hopefully iron survives because it's a
meritorious company, notwithstanding its valuation may be elevated. But we must go through a deleveraging of all the hopium and volatility that was caused by
policymakers acting in a way discordant with every other Federal Reserve in every period of time,
going back to the genesis in 1913. You do not cut rates to your terminal low,
nearly your terminal low, before the economy, inflation, and the market deflates. Greenspan
waited. Bernanke waited. Everybody waits, not this guy. And we're going to have to suffer for it.
Are you done? Do you want to keep going? I'm done. I am done. I'm toast. I'm rotisserie.
I'm Larry the Lobster. Yeah, I mean, you're a great market historian. I mean, look, I
appreciate all of your commentary.
I find it fun and entertaining and sometimes educational.
Fun is really dismissive.
It's actually factual and dispositive.
David's the goat.
Some of it is your view of reality.
No, no, most of it is actual exact prices and yields, times, and dates.
So that's not opinion.
He's also not passive-aggressive and dismissive.
What?
I am.
I said David is not passive-aggressive and dismissive.
Okay, I don't know.
I am sometimes.
I can't even see who's talking.
I mean, if I can't see the person talking, I probably won't participate.
That was ghoul.
That was ghoul.
That was Prometheus.
Like, I can't even see these people coming out with tomatoes from the side.
It's just ridiculous.
But listen, man, data centers are physical,
so they're not hopium.
No, they have a real problem.
They have a huge problem, and you can't see it.
No, you just are interrupting me again.
You said you were done.
No, no, you say that they're real,
but you're making a statement that's so ridiculous.
David, I asked you if you were done, and you said I'm done.
Okay, okay, I'll let you.
I'll go on mute.
You've been talking for the whole time. I haven't said, okay, I'll let you, I'll go on mute. You've been talking for the whole
time. I haven't said anything. I've literally said nothing.
I'll go on mute. I'll go on mute,
Mike.
I went on mute. I don't hear you.
Hey, Mike, you're on mute, by the way.
Yeah, I'm here.
I'm still here.
I just don't know if it's a worthwhile pursuit.
But anyway, David is one of these people that sounds really smart, sounds like he knows all the facts, whatever.
I've never seen any examples of any of the investments he's made successfully.
And I would just say, look, at the end of the day, markets are about who can actually
use them to create wealth. That's it. That's what we're trying to do. So the sport of saying you
can predict the future and all that is one thing. The other thing is what actually happens. I mean,
data centers are not copium. I hear David saying stuff like that. I have no idea what he's talking about. Data centers are one of the hardest assets
with the most long-term value
that you can probably create at this moment
because whether or not you are using it
for Anthropic today or Claude
or whether you're using it
for some totally different use case
in five years or 10 years,
like the odds that in a society that's becoming increasingly digital, that we'll need less
compute is just so low. And so I'm not going to get distracted by interest rate commentary and
bond price commentary and mortgage rates. I mean, look at every technology cycle for the past 50
years has happened irrespective of those other cycles, right?
Like they'll expand and they'll contract on their own timeline.
Cheap money and lower rates may accelerate some of those things, but at the end of the
day, those processes will complete.
We're in the early stages of an AI buildup.
It's very much analogous to the late 90s or maybe early 2000s, where the consumer
internet still had 25 years to run to get to where it is now, and AI still very early. There was
certainly a dot-com company bubble 26, 27 years ago. But that's completely separate from whether
or not the internet and the consumer internet in particular had a long runway ahead of it. And I
think we could see now with the benefit of hindsight that, you know, people calling for rational exuberance and a stock market bubble in technology in the late 90s were correct in the short term, but definitely wrong in the long term if they didn and generating wealth standpoint, it would be quite foolish to be bearish at any moment, significantly bearish at any moment over the next 20 years on the most significant megatrends that are available to you to invest in, which includes things like robotics, Bitcoin and crypto, AI, etc. And what I hear from David is a lot of like, well, because the yield curve inverted at this time and date at this amount,
therefore I'm not going to make any money investing.
And I'm just like, not really that interested in that.
Like, I just think there's a big difference between people.
I didn't say that actually.
Mike, don't you think it makes sense to be weary of risk for
an asset like Bitcoin that can, you know, go down 70%?
Like, that's a huge killer of compounding returns, right?
If you draw down that much.
Not if you hold it.
I mean, if you held Bitcoin for 15 years,
your compounded returns beat everybody.
That's the biggest return ever in history.
That's not a good analog.
If you held your XLK and you didn't shift into XLP,
you'd fall 92.74%.
You get out
and you get back in. You're not mandated.
Hey, David, stop interrupting Mike.
David, stop interrupting Mike.
He paraphrased me.
He paraphrased me.
Mike, David, stop it,
you crazy motherfucker.
Whoever cursed at me, you got to mute that guy.
Shut the fuck up, David.
Shut the fuck up, you broke motherfucker.
No one is listening to you.
Yo, the Mike Alfred glaze is actually crazy, bro.
You sound like you're on your knees fucking sucking him off right now.
Okay, whoever cursed at me has to be removed from the space.
I can't allow that.
When I see David on a space, I'm leaving, son.
So leave.
Leave.
You're not wanted. Out. Exit. Goodbye.
Don't mischaracterize my words, Mike.
You can say what you want about you.
Don't you ever mischaracterize my words.
That's pathetic.
It is true that every single correction or bear market in innovation was catalyzed by a falling rate
structure nominal because of a surge of real rates. We lost 7.7% of inflation in just 13 months
after GFC. We want to buy more shares of innovation. We don't want to sit there for 16 years waiting for the NDX to go
from 4,800 to 800 back to 48. We want to buy what's working and move from what's working to
what else is working. I called for XLP to be in dominance. Then we'll go to mortgages and bonds
in dominance. Then we'll come back. I'd rather have 20 times as many shares of Amazon or these
other things. Don't say I say negative. I'm more bullish than
you in the long run, but I'm not a fool sitting there and watching it go down by half and then
half again and then half again and being someone else's whale exit. I want to buy strength and I
want to move to new strength because the money's not going to disappear. I'm mega bullish, but I
see that there's a correction or a contraction or a deflation.
I'm going to step out of that way. They always let me back in. If it changes, you asked me about
strategy. If strategy spends a lot of time outperforming, I'll be able to buy in on higher
lows, but I don't have to catch a falling knife and lose my fingers. But don't you dare paraphrase
me and misquote me and have it on the record. That's beneath you.
Okay.
I'm muted now.
Yeah, thank you for your comments.
Look, I don't know what your returns are.
I don't even know why you're interested in this.
It's not clear to me you're an active practitioner in markets.
If you are
i'd love to hear about your investment structure what you've invested in um that's a lie you have
no interest in what i have done you just want to use it as a saying i'm doing different than david
are you a professor are you a professor at a university or assistant professor at least
i had taught at nyu for a brief period of time. So what do you do now?
What do you do? I'm coming out of a time and I have a fund that's starting up this week or next
week. And it's not available for anybody on Twitter. They don't have the size. That's great.
That's great. Yeah. Most people don't have our size, right? That's just the nature of the beast.
I've told everyone my strategy, low beta tail yield. Mortgages and bonds is the long. That yield funds
tail in sectors I like, like Staples Healthcare Utilities, and buys tail in things I don't like,
which is tech, com, and crypto. David, have you looked at my 13F for the end of the year?
No, I don't. I don't. I don't look at 13F. Because you're not going to have one because
you're never going to have over 100 million invested? No, I said I don't watch your $13 million.
Okay, but you do look at $13 million.
My Genesis customer is $100 million buy-in.
Okay, so your Genesis customer, you mean your LP?
My primary investor, my initial investor.
So they're giving you $100 million to invest in a global macro approach, trading on rates and bond yields and...
And equities. yeah yeah but but
all based on market flow okay well once you do that i'd love to uh see how you're actually
positioned because you can actually just look up how i'm positioned so you keep saying well i don't
really have the need to do anything specific i tell people in general my view i'll be writing
volatility callers against it and cure and and and adapting that from call spreads to uh calendar
spreads to ratio as i see as i see a transformation in the behavior of of a price trend. But it's not for you. Who are you going to use as your prime broker?
Goldman Sachs.
Goldman is going to take you as prime broker?
Yeah, it's already settled.
We have all the paperwork.
Congratulate.
What's the name of the fund?
I'm using Riptide as my platform.
What's the name of your fund?
Is it a separately managed account
or do you have a fund structure,
a GPLP structure?
I'll be providing the advice, and it's going to be a subaccount.
Okay, so it's not your fund, someone else's fund.
It's my capital, clown.
That is a ridiculous, childish, I have my own fund.
I have capital, I have discretion, and I have a very nice payout.
So you have to say, oh, you don't.
When I'm sitting at $500 million, I'll do it myself.
Who wants all that headache of hiring all these people?
Now is the time to make money.
Now is the time for me to take your money and put it in my clients' pockets.
David, it's not that hard.
I did it by myself in two months with $20,000 of my own money.
Well, to do it the right way, it's about $250,000.
I did it the right way.
Well, I have a different view of things than you, all right?
My lawyers say it'll be about $200,000, $250,000 to get it done.
It takes about three months.
Yeah, because your lawyers are completely, ridiculously overpriced.
I started software.
Well, congratulations to you.
Congratulations to you. You could get a low-rent lawyer to do your thing. I want to be. Congratulations to you.
You could get a low-rent lawyer to do your thing.
I want to be at Goldman Sachs.
My sister was at Goldman.
My old partner was at Goldman.
I want to be at Goldman.
I've got a wonderful New York-based lawyer to take it.
He's worked with 300 or 400.
Goldman wants it done this way.
Guys, let's stop with the Dixie.
Let's stop with the Dixie.
I want Goldman. That's stop with the Dixie.
I want Goldman.
That's it.
Let's get back to the market. I think it was actually a really important conversation
because David spouts off on here all the time
like he's an expert on markets,
but he seems like a professor,
not a natural practitioner.
So I'm glad we...
Well, I articulate where markets should go.
My calls have been beautiful.
You don't have your own funds.
I'm glad we clarified that. You're such a dick. you're such a dick
you're such a worthless asshole
all you want to do is cost people money
by trying to diminish someone
whose call on the market is far superior to yours
so if you have to insult me
I'll just push back
you're just a bad joke
you and your short silver
I'm going to short 100 million of silver
nobody in the world
could get their custodian to allow them to take $100 million short. Nobody in the world would
allow a fund with $200 million to short $100 million. So you're a liar. Nobody in the world
will let you do it. David, just shut it for a second. No, you're a liar.
No, it's called portfolio margin.
You obviously have never run a hedge fund. You're not allowed to take that much concentration.
You've never run a fund before.
You have no idea what you're talking about.
You come in here and you spout off.
You're lying about the positions you take.
It's entirely based on a...
You cannot take on a hundred million short in one commodity as thin as silver when the CME is raging margin.
It's not a commodity. It's a security position.
Do you know what an ETF is? An ETF that holds a commodity?
Do you think that a risk manager is going to distinguish between SLV and a commodity?
Are you kidding me? At that size?
You're not a serious person.
This is evidence of you being a liar. You're revealing how pathological you are. No fund would let you
take half of the fund in a short silver position or a short silver ETF position. You're lying.
You don't have a fund, so you have no idea what you're taking. You cannot get that level of risk.
No one could buy in your 100 million short that you say that you're willing to take nobody would let you
do it it's an unserious statement you can't take 50 of your fund in a commodity that's an unserious
statement you have no idea it's an unserious statement you cannot take half of a book and
put it all unidirectionally in a hundred million short in an illiquid commodity when the CME is cutting down margin liquidity.
They're raising the margin requirement on that.
You're unserious.
You're making things up.
Can somebody mute him?
He's just completely like a rabid dog.
He has no idea what he's talking about.
You're making things up and I'm calling you out.
It disturbs you.
I get it.
SLV, the ETF is not regulated by the CME.
You're completely.
I never said it is.
I said the underlying commodity is.
And SLV is very late.
David, it's recorded.
You can't pretend you're not completely crazy.
You can't pretend.
You can't pretend.
Okay.
I'm the crazy one.
You're the liar.
You're making stuff up.
You're making people think you can short a hundred million of slv in a 200 million portfolio yes when the cme is cutting the raising margin requirements
you're making this up you haven't thought this through you're just you're completely nuts dude
are you nuts it's an etf yes the underlying is silver That's how you calibrate the ETF to the underlying.
The CMA regulates silver prices.
Do you not get this?
Do you think you could lie that you're going to take $100 million short?
David has no idea what he's talking about in the context of fund management.
I think we've established that.
50% of a book short one commodity that the CMA is raising margin.
That is the primary component. David's let's move on from this okay what what do you how about this let's uh
i guess the citrini piece got a lot of buzz so you want to talk about the meat of the market
not your two's meats well all right uh i mean i guess i I don't know. I find David's stuff to be pretty good. So David,
what do you think of the Citrini piece? And in general,
I think it was burlesque. I think it was burlesque. It's just humor. He starts off with a presumptive
we're going to be at 8,000 this year in the S&P and 30K in the NASdaq when when when microsoft is in free fall when yields are flattening and the
financials are rolling over led by schwab it just he does this stuff to get clicks and he was able
to get around bloomberg and on cnbc and he got what he wanted but there's no seriousness behind
it this is not the global financial crisis.
The credit guys who have bad credit from KKR and all these other crews, their bad credit is concentrated mostly in innovation, data center, other stuff.
Data center is trading well right now, but a lot of people are very concerned that there's going to be a glut of this stuff because as the dollar goes up the free cash flow of these companies that are requiring debt now to maintain
remember sam altman just lowered by 800 billion his targeted investment so he got what he wanted
he got the attention but this isn't going to create double-digit unemployment because mortgage rates are going
to fall dramatically faster than he's articulating and that's going to put oceans of disposable income
in main street america and so when you see these mortgage rates about to pierce four
and you see home builders near all-time highs home Home Depot doesn't have a good report and it goes up.
You're seeing all-time highs in the stuff that consumers want to buy,
Staples Healthcare Utilities.
And you're seeing the other stuff go down.
And the flatter curve will continue.
It's telling you real rates are rising.
And innovation doesn't like higher real rates.
So he got his attention.
But you have to get to 8,000 to then start to have his whole
story, and we're not getting there. The market doesn't look like it wants to do it. Yields don't
look like it want to do it. There's going to be a global margin call from these falling yields,
just like we had in the global financial crisis.
I have a totally different view than David.
I think we're actually coming into probably the golden era of this cycle
where for the next 12 to 24 months,
there's probably going to be multiple major moves higher in risk assets
across crypto equities.
I think real estate is going to have a renaissance.
Small cap equities are going to continue to break out. I think liquidity is going to go broader. I
think the ISM PMI is going to break out. We're seeing the rotation of capital from the S&P 500,
the equal weighted. So I think we're coming to a really wonderful time. I think the thing that
concerns me the most is that I do think there's going to be a restructuring
of the labor market.
I think it's going to be very hard for the average person
to get a job if they lose one,
if they're not exceptional at something.
And as I've said many times over the last year,
I think the two areas you want to be invested in
are places that are directly pushing the AI innovation forward.
So things like data centers,
where you're not betting on which
foundation model necessarily wins. You're just betting on the need for additional infrastructure
because there's going to be an arms race. It's already happening. You can argue against it.
You can say you don't like it. You can say it's crazy. You can say it's a bubble, blah, blah, blah,
blah, blah. But the reality is the math and the game theory for the hyperscalers requires them to
make those bets. And they'll continue to make those bets for two, three, four, five years.
And that's going to benefit anybody who has a clean way of addressing that market.
So not people with a legacy business that's going to be disrupted by AI,
like a Microsoft software company that is also a hyperscaler,
but somebody who's coming into the data center business from scratch,
trying to be a pure play, just serving hyperscalers. That's who's coming into the data center business from scratch, trying to be
a pure play, just serving hyperscalers, that's going to be a pretty good business. And that's
going to be a pretty good business for a long time. The other side of it is businesses that
are not immediately disruptible by AI. So that could be things like railroads, where you have
a quasi-monopoly if you're Canada Pacific on the route between Canada and Mexico. Maybe you're the only line that connects those two geographic locations. And once you work through all the
madness and tariffs, voila, the stock goes up. And that's actually what we're seeing
over the last few months. It's a very high quality asset that's temporarily compressed by a bunch of
noise that effectively has no long-term basis on the quality of the business or the earnings. And so I like stuff on both sides of the bar, but I want to be like super long AI disruption.
I want to be on the side of the table where I'm pushing it forward so it's happening to somebody on the other side.
And then I want to be in businesses where I don't think they're immediately disruptible. So that could be anything from a railroad to a pharmaceutical company to a retailer
to, you know, a alcohol brands that are out of favor right now trading at a low multiple, but
are unlikely to go away. And remember, like tobacco companies were in the same place
12, 18 months ago, people said, these companies are never gonna be great investments again,
like they're in terminal decline. And then what happened? Altria, British American Tobacco,
Philip Morris, they all came roaring back because a lot of times what causes equities to go up is
not necessarily any major shift in the business. It's just a subtle shift in the sentiment and a
partial reversal in momentum. And boom, they just, they sort of yo-yo back the other way. And so
tobacco did that 12 or 18 months ago. There's certainly some fundamental reasons like smokeless reversal and momentum and boom they just they sort of yo-yo back the other way and so tobacco
did that 12 or 18 months ago there's certainly some fundamental reasons like smokeless products
and zin and things like that but there also is just a sort of rotation back into whatever's
undervalued the same thing's going to happen with alcohol there's not going to be any headlines for
the next year that gen z loves alcohol there's not going to be any headlines saying alcohol sales
are booming but it won't matter because the stocks will go up anyway uh and we're already seeing the beginning of that process so
that's kind of my view of where i see the market right now mike you have a view on bitcoin or
or eth say over the next six months three six months yeah i'm super i'm i'm adding i added
75 000 shares of the of the ice shares ethereum trust like in the last month um and it's just
plummeting and and I'm just
adding more and more and more. I may take that position up to about 375,000 shares. I might take
it up to 500,000 or a million shares if it continues lower. Because Ethereum is a decentralized
protocol. It's not as immutable. It's not as decentralized. It's not as long-term stable,
I don't think, as Bitcoin. But it is another thing like Bitcoin that will be somewhat impossible to kill.
And if you can't kill it as long as it's priced in dollars,
the long-term trajectory of the price is higher.
And so I like to buy stuff like that when it's out of favor.
I think Ethereum has more use cases than most people in crypto think it does.
I think institutions like Bitcoin and Ethereum,
and I think if I look out two, three, four, five years,
they're all going to be higher.
And I don't see any reason to become bearish
after they've already gone down.
I'm going to continue to be bullish.
And the only time I potentially become less bullish
is when there's extreme exuberance for these assets.
And we haven't seen that since maybe 2021 or even 2017. I don't think
what we saw in November of this year qualifies. It was largely ignored by the masses. Most people
don't care about Bitcoin at $126 or $66 or $63. They don't care. It hasn't sort of entered the
zeitgeist or the mindshare at all this cycle.
And so institutions have largely driven the price increase in Bitcoin.
But I'm not confident that there's sort of any long-term top in Bitcoin until I see extreme exuberance.
And I expect that will still happen.
Maybe not in the next three months, but at some point over the next few years, I think we will see exuberance again in the asset class.
And we're just at the extreme pessimistic side, in my opinion.
Bitcoin kind of just seems, though, or all of crypto just seems like it's between a rock and a hard place, right?
Where a lot of the promises just kind of weren't kept.
You have alternatives now.
And I don't disagree with you.
It's just more, I just feel like previous cycles cycles we've been taught to you know let it let
it let the bloodletting stop before stepping in because especially with something like ethereum
right you know there kind of is no floor at the moment um well i don't i don't like the
characterization of stepping in i mean that that assumes a trader mindset where you're either all
in or all out uh and you're constantly changing your position like i
don't view it like that at all i've i've been holding the tranche of the theorem the spot
theorem that i hold i've been holding since 300 in either i think it was 2019 2020 and i never
sold it i trimmed a little bit but i never sold that position and i'm still holding it and i
you know the the position that i have in my fund now is the ice shares because it's easier to put that on.
But I don't think I'm stepping in.
I think I'm establishing a long-term position that hopefully goes up over the next five or ten years.
And look, every single cycle, when you're in the down part of the cycle, it always feels this way.
I think a lot of people, for whatever reason, think this is different. Like every single time in the last 25 years where people sounded like this about anything
was basically the bottom or near the bottom or near enough price-wise, right?
It may not be time-wise the bottom, right?
It may take six months or whatever.
But price-wise, it's probably immaterial, right?
Like we're probably within whatever, 5%, 10% on the downside.
And we probably have 1,000 or 5,000% on the upside over some we probably have a thousand or five thousand percent
on the upside over some period up to a decade or more and since i do primarily asymmetric investing
not short-term trading i don't really care it's not stepping in it's just increasing position
size when the odds are weighted in your favor and in any asset class whether it's tobacco stocks or
health care stocks or biotech crypto ai, you want to buy them when people sound exactly like they sound now.
Oh, it's different this time.
Like, this time is really the end of tobacco.
Or a few months ago, this time is really the end of alcohol.
Like, young people never drink ever again.
I heard this in December.
People who follow me have seen this.
Hundreds of replies when I said I was buying Constellation Diageo at lower prices, that how could you do that? Because this time is really
different. They're really not going to drink this time. And they're really not going to-
The thing is, I'm personally waiting actually for that moment, right? Where the consensus is that
crypto essentially failed. I don't think we're there yet. I still think there's
plenty of hope, but I do kind of think that the prevailing narrative and then the price action
will just drive it to a point where, you know, people, especially this cycle, right, we
increased the on-ramp so much where everyone can buy it, and they did. And you'll just get to a
point where a lot of these people, these passive investors will just be like i just kind of got scammed um i don't think we're there yet in terms
of that moment where because right it will be this like people will say no this time is different
crypto's done and i think that's when you that's when you size in now it's just you know and i
don't know the the supply kind of dynamics that we created via the DATS, we're nowhere near close to that.
Can you have a charger for the iPhone?
David, what you got for us?
Oh, I got 2% less on my phone.
I'm at a hotel.
Tell the gentleman, says he might let me be able to borrow it for a few seconds.
The gentleman says he might let me be able to borrow it for a few seconds.
Oh, thank you very much.
Oh, thank you very much.
I'm happy to leave it at Mike thinks innovation is going to do well now, and I'm in a corrective phase.
I don't think we need to go further than that.
But I would say when people say, is it different now, we are in a novel situation.
It's never happened in 113 years where the Federal Reserve used up all of their useful
rate cuts, which are the ones more than 50% above the low yield preemptively before the
market fell.
Greenspan let the market fall 57% and yields invert.
So he let the innovation deflate. If Greenspan would have been
cutting along the way, they wouldn't have stopped at 139% of GDP versus the 225 right now. We would
have gone much higher and the companies would have gone to profitability. He just deflated that.
So we're losing liquidity. You could observe it and measure it just back of the
knife, back of the napkin, just look at the shape of the yield curve, flattening with everybody.
And so watch if lower yields and lower mortgage rates cause the euro to go down and show a greater
deterioration of dollar availability to buy risk assets. And I'm happy to just leave it
there and watch it over time. I don't need to engage with Mike. He's made clear he thinks we're
early on and I say we're at the end. And then we'll have the greatest bull market of all time
starting in a couple of years, much bigger than this bull market, because by then we'll have
private credit stepped up by the federal government with better standards than the garbage they're doing now. And instead of running out of treasuries
when the economy's strong and paying down the deficit and having that kind of, you know, that
choking effect that you went from Reagan's 5% deficits to Clinton's 3% surpluses, the global
last treasuries as collateral. Now we're looking at, we could have after this corrective
hibernation, private credit could be pro-cyclical, and we could have a 20-year bull market that could
go up 100 times. The NASDAQ went up 32 times from October 8th, 2002, to October 9th, 2025, 32 times.
I think we'll do more the next time. I think we need to squeeze out some
of the weak juice, some of the weak hands, some of the people don't really understand the concept of
subsidized rates or real rates. And I want to leave it there. I want to take the ad hominem back.
Mike obviously has a following. Mike has money under his control. I disagree with a lot of things, but he's very
bullish on innovation. And I happen to be very bullish on innovation after hibernation.
We only differ on a hibernation period. He thinks a month might be enough. I think it's a couple of
years and much, much, much, much, much, much lower prices because we have a collapse of dollar supply and the dollar is going to go up 20%
and it's going to do a lot of damage,
dollar wrecking ball.
That's it.
Well, that's generous.
And I think what matters is what happens in the market,
not what either of us thinks.
So we'll see.
I totally agree with that 100%.
So we can finish on Mike and I agreeing.
Yeah, we can finish, but I'm not done.
I want to speak to what Chief said because I think it's important. agree with that 100 so we can finish on mike and i agree yeah we we can finish but i'm not done i
want to i want to speak to what chief um said because i i think it's important um chief's view
is that we have not capitulated yet and um because people are not angry enough depressed enough they
haven't given up enough and and there there is some hope and I think part of the reason why is because equities have done so well right so like my view is that crypto like the broader
crypto business particularly x Bitcoin is is he's actually like been in a bear
market for four years right and like people just have not made money in the
broader crypto space and so I've watched people capitulating and giving up and giving up on the whole sector for years.
And just very quietly, they've been quietly quitting and going into AI and going into equities and going into any like just leaving the space and disappearing from X.
So I think there's been a significant amount of capitulation, but there's a survivorship bias because the people are still left to capitulate uh or at least we're supposed to capitulate are largely like the strongest
you know most uh endurance oriented people uh that could possibly be in the market because
they've survived they're deep into crypto and they've survived four years they've survived
like effectively a four-year bear market with very little reprieve so i and then i look at the
sort of broader setup here,
and I say, well, the last couple times, like 2022 and 2018,
where we had a bottom, there were like significant events
that you could point to that would explain
why the prices did what they did.
And what I'm seeing this time is a pretty significant divergence
between particularly crypto prices and the rest of the market,
including gold, silver, equities, the NASDAQ, like all the things people like to throw up on
a chart as these assets are related. So I don't see why we have to, like, we could go a lot lower
in a lot of things, but I don't see what that is going, where that's going to come from unless there's something big and surprising that's not
well known and well understood yet um and i i speculated that some of the things that could
have be you know been responsible for the price action we've seen in crypto over the last call
it three four or five months but i don't i don't think we really know and i think uh you know we
could bottom very quietly it could happen happen quickly. It could happen slowly.
But I think it would be foolish to think that we have to go a lot lower
or we have to stay down for a long time.
I'm just not confident that that's correct.
Yeah, I think you usually, like when the upswing kind of happens again,
there's usually some sort of catalyst
that you can point to that gets demand back in.
And right now it just feels like it's sort of,
it's sort of just like the exact opposite, right?
The quantum thing, I mean, look, it's going to get solved.
Bitcoin, in my opinion, is like too big to fail.
But the governance process around, you know,
what you do with Satoshi's coins, what you do with the coins or the wallets that don't upgrade, that just, the process of reaching consensus is going to create uncertainty that it won't be gone for a while.
And that will just put a lid on it, right?
Because there's not as much career risk anymore for managers to say.
Because now they can say, look, until this is solved, there's a chance that this can zero.
Obviously, that's not going to happen.
You still also have the four-year cycle respecters, which have been vindicated pretty massively. And then, yeah, like barring a sovereign coming in in size,
it's hard for me to see what would catalyze like a huge influx of buying. And then if there's no
really demand to bid, then you're kind of just working through all the supply that got into the
weak hands of these dApps. Like Mike, you know, a lot of the people that funded these pipes were
it's a lot of just crypto VCs
who couldn't make money on alts.
And they were like, all right,
this is our last chance to make some free money.
Do you have the view that it was easy in advance
over the last 10 or 12 years
to identify either the source of flows
or the narratives in advance?
Or do you think that that was actually only possible
after the price of
Bitcoin went up? Also depends, right? So let's say this last cycle, for example, the meat of the move
for Bitcoin was kind of when Larry Fink, you know, essentially gave the nod that when they filed
different ETF, not even, or even before the intern headline, right? I think it was around like 25, 24K where BlackRock filed.
Like that was, that to me was like a very, very obvious play.
Same thing with Solana, right?
The most, it was super obvious.
As soon as the FTX estate started the sale process,
it was quite obvious that, you know,
one, there was a ton of short selling beforehand
and like super backward in the futures market and then it just became clear if you were watching it
like you know galaxy got everyone into a room and they're like all right we have so much demand and
you could just see it get matched on screen so in terms of you know i don't need to i don't need to
pick the exact bottom right even though i think last cycle like ftx collapse was a little bit of hindsight
bias but it was it was pretty obvious because it genuinely couldn't get worse right and it's like
we said the prevailing narrative at the time was crypto is over and you never want to take that bet
so i think for the meat of the move so let's say you waited till that headline you missed 15 to 25 but you got 25 to 125 um and then same thing actually yeah back
in 2020 right like i think that covet bottom was one of the most obvious times as soon as the fed
unloaded the bazooka that was could not have been a clear signal um so my my view very simply is
that it's actually impossible to know in advance with any
specificity the timing or the specific catalyst and so what i try to do instead is just when i
think an asset probably from a probability standpoint is in a high value area i buy a lot
of it and then i just wait and i don't use options to express most of these things.
So I don't have a timeline.
And I just think right now, whether Bitcoin goes to 50 or 40 or whatever, like 64 is a good price for Bitcoin.
You're deriving value from just historic, right?
Like based on drawdown from highs.
No, it's not just the math of the drawdown or the right like the the
chart or anything like that i i like bitcoin because of the network effect and the utility
relative to fiat um and so uh just look at the number of units that are available to acquire
and look at the amount of dollar creation and over long periods of time, I think the value of Bitcoin is going to go up pretty substantially.
And so that's, that's kind of my, my framework.
And right now I'd rather, I'd rather be adding to it.
I don't think we can know for sure what, you know,
is going to happen next, but if,
if Bitcoin were to go back to one 26 without going significantly lower from here, or if it were to
go break out to new all-time highs this year, for example, then I would argue that the cycle,
the so-called cycle, people being vindicated, I don't necessarily know if that's true. And you
said if you miss 15 to 25, you got 25 to 125. I literally think zero people on the planet got 25
to 125 because the type of person who
didn't buy until 25 sold at 58 four times, right? Because I remember these people.
I mean, I think a bunch of people on this call did it, right? It's a generalization.
Yeah, I watched a lot of people on this call sell Bitcoin 17 times from 16 to 126, right?
Every time there was a small pullback, every time it looked like it was going
to break down, every time the chart started to, the price moved below the moving average, they
sold. And so it's like, yeah, I guess it's possible somebody got 25 to 125. But in my experience,
the people who are watching it that closely are always selling too much and they're taking a
taxable gain and hoping to get back in
and a lot of times missing it and then they spend a lot of time rooting for it to go down
because they're underexposed every time it moves back up. And this cycle for Bitcoin has been one
of the most frustrating cycles in the history of Bitcoin because the consolidation periods were so
long and drawn out and negatively biased. And so you saw these guys get churned out of Bitcoin
like dozens of times every consolidation period. And so you saw these guys get churned out of Bitcoin like dozens
of times every consolidation period. And even when the ETF was approved, it wasn't easy to trade that
period because ETFs approved. OK, good. We've got money coming in from the ETF. The price went down
from 42 to 39 and Arthur Hayes was buying puts. And I saw a ton of traders who were in the space
and who post constantly saying they're always right about trading who sold at 39 or 40 because they were afraid it was going to go to 33 and then it ripped
up to 73 and then they sold because they thought when it went back down in the high 50s that it's
going to drop back down to 40 and then it didn't right and then and then in the election it ran up
to 100 and right like they've got turned out so many times that i'm just not even sure it matters
right like i just don't see too many people who do anything other than just buy and hold that
actually make a lot of money in bitcoin i guess it depends like when you i mean i think the the
thing too is like obviously you know one thing i posted earlier i was like if you're in the red
with bitcoin don't sell if you're going to ever, make sure you sell in the green and don't convert it to
dollars.
Whatever you do, convert it to something like the S&P 500, which does have some Bitcoin
exposure.
I mean, that's what I always tell people because it's like, you know, I feel like unless
you're planning on like bringing it to the entire grave, I mean, there's going to be
a point where you're going to take some profits maybe to buy a house to, you know, fund your life. I mean,
there's certain people, you know, you can look at the Michael Saylor strategy, just borrow against
it, but you know, that's risky and unfeasible for the average person. Usually when people do that,
they either get, you know, margin calls and all that stuff, or they can't stomach, you know,
the potential of getting a margin call. So I wouldn't recommend that.
I think that's way too risky unless you really, you know, got the stomach for it, which is,
you know, like you were saying, Mike, 90, probably, I mean, what is this?
Statistically, 98% of even hedge fund managers can't outperform the S&P 500 over a 10-year
period consistently.
And that's not even, that's let alone not even Bitcoin.
So, I mean, you know, we're looking at you, you got, you have a lot going against you, but at the same time,
like, you know, somebody like yourself, obviously extremely successful. You know,
I see a lot of your posts. I very impressive, obviously. And ultra marathon, like you're the
top 1%, obviously, or even above that. But to the average person, yeah, like I would say the main
advice for the average person who can't like, who is going to get mad if you just tell them buy and die is like if you're ever going to sell, don't sell when you're in the red.
Sell when you're in the green and don't convert it to freaking dollars because we know the fundamentals of that is guaranteed to go down.
Convert to something like the S&P 500.
And then the time to get back in, theoretically, if we want to go that route,
is when your S&P 500 outperforms Bitcoin by a lot.
I think if you converted from Bitcoin to the S&P 500
later last year or whatever,
if you got the right point,
you'd almost have double your Bitcoin right now.
If you're one of those people,
most people probably not,
I, believe it or not, am one of those people, now is probably not, I believe it or not, am one of
those people. Now is the time to scale back in, in my opinion, because you have double
kind of the amount as opposed to the S&P 500. You know, I think those are main, like if you're
converting, like these are vehicles that trend up with time, Bitcoin, you know, S&P 500. I mean,
gold is 3% a year on average, terrible, you know, terrible compared to those two first vehicles I mentioned.
But if you convert even real estate, if you convert to vehicles that trend up with time, even if you're completely wrong, you're still going to have a pretty high rate of return.
I think that's kind of the most logical thing to tell people because it's like, you know, let's say I made 100 grand or 200 grand with Bitcoin.
grand or 200 grand with Bitcoin, you know, I'm going to be, most people are going to be mad if
you tell them, no, you can't sell and you can't, you know, put a down payment on that house that
you've always wanted. You know what I mean? So that's kind of the way I view it. Evan, could
you modify that to say when you buy S&P, buy three of the best sectors instead of all of the sectors?
That's another, yeah. I mean, things that trend up with, yeah. If you're going to make
those bets too, I mean, you could try right now, XLE looks like it'll continue up or from the
S&P 500. XLP, like you always talk about, David. Yeah. Those other things that generally
trend up with time too. I mean, based on the environment. Go ahead.
Choose the three highest RSI sectors on a daily and a weekly, add those two, and then just flow your money to whatever is in levitation versus the rest.
And when Bitcoin has a better RSI than those, put that in that mix.
Bitcoin right now has a worse RSI, so it's put to the side.
so it's put to the side.
But you can mechanically have Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP.
But you can mechanically have Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP.
Whenever it has a weekly RSI plus a daily RSI,
it's in dominance of the top, you know, add that to the 12,
11 sectors plus those four, that's 17.
When three of, you want to the three highest.
You want the most money flow behind you.
Just a mechanical approach.
Instead of having to ride things up and down,
especially when you consider the last decimal of Bitcoin cost 2.4 trillion of market cap,
the prior was only 2.240 billion and then 24 billion. It's a lot harder to add 2.4 and then
24 trillion. So going into things that have less selling pressure as measured by the daily plus
the weekly rsi for the three best you know of the 11 sectors plus crypto crypto was the best forever
you know so that would have been dominance but now that you have 2.4 trillion added in the last, you know, two years, and it's not able to maintain that,
some dynamism in investing is certainly good for at least a decent amount of your capital. That's
all I was saying to amplify that it's not just the whole S&P. So you don't have to ride weaker
sectors down. Yeah, 100%. I think if you're talking to the average person that's
going to be a lot to kind of grasp your head around but yeah yeah it makes sense to me definitely
i don't know mike's mike's take honestly sounds like full cope we're heading way lower
well i mean the thing too that's interesting is like mean, I'm going to put my degenerate cap on right now, but MicroStrategy did bottom out a lot, a lot before, a lot earlier before Bitcoin in 2022.
And like, I think that that's like a tight stop loss trade against Bitcoin, where if you buy MicroStrategy and then you write it up unless it makes a lower low against Bitcoin, then probably convert back to Bitcoin. I think the prime area to try to, you know, get into Bitcoin, if I had to guess, would
be around the summer. That's kind of the prime area, because if you wanted to bet that 12 to 24
months after that, it'll probably go up. You know, you got a good shot of doing that, even if, you
know, you get into a doomsday scenario where we don't make a new all-time high, that would be kind of the place.
I mean, my floor would be the two-week 200 SMA, which is going to be at right now, I think, 39K.
By the time you would actually hit that, it would probably be in the mid to high 40s.
I don't know.
I feel like everyone thinks we're going to end up in the 40s.
But, I mean, sometimes the masses get it right.
I mean, sometimes the masses get it right.
Go ahead.
Go ahead.
Evan, if the yield curve was flattening and that started to be dominant, meaning the decline in mortgage rates and the decline of the 210 curve, let's just say, or the decline of Fed funds to five years.
If you saw that and it was having a durable tractor beam effect on Bitcoin, wouldn't you want to say, let me lose the powerful tractor being forced before I have
to feel like I've got to be longer? I mean, isn't there some merit to having your tablet exposed
to anti-gravity? I'll tell you what, David, I'll tell you, I have a technique for that. Just like
my technique with micro strategy versus Bitcoin, I would convert it back to Bitcoin if it makes a
lower low on the Bitcoin pair. What I would do, assuming I convert some
of my S&P 500 or Berkshire Hathaway or gold or those things to Bitcoin, let's say in July,
August, if they make a lower low on their S&P 500 pair, I would probably convert back
and wait and look for something more attractive. So I think it's pretty low.
Dollar value or just price? In other words, if you see you've lost less in your equity pieces than your Bitcoin piece, would that be enough to keep your position?
In other words, if your Berkshire and your gold is going down, but Bitcoin is still going down faster, wouldn't you keep your current position on because your capital is being better treated? Yes. So I'm looking for momentum changes to make that.
And I surmise that those momentum changes will appear more towards quarter three or quarter four.
That's what I surmise.
And if you don't see that, would you just keep on doing what you're doing?
Watching Bitcoin deflate and not get too big too fast.
A hundred percent, that's the exact technique, yeah.
You are so wonderful, Evan.
Anyway, I'm sorry for the octagon for those of you who didn't like it,
and I'm thrilled for the octagon for those of you who loved it.
Anyway, you got to go.
I got to go.
We're going to go.
I'm going to do an open spaces later tonight.
But this was really entertaining, and I hope I didn't offend too many people.
Anybody who was offended offended please don't raise
your hand leave it to yourself if if if we just came on here and talked about like bitcoin and
just basic stuff like the room wouldn't get filled up you know like people ask why do you bring in
this person or that person why are you guys talking about this?
It's because it's entertainment.
Let me ask.
Entertainment puts the asses in the seats and it brings the room up.
It brings in the asses and the masses.
Yes, that's how you create an audience, man.
This is not a classroom.
This is an unpaid entertainment vehicle thank you for the time
because thanks man thanks for coming on mercury did you want to mercury did you want to say
anything man i know i sent you an invite to speak a couple of hours ago man i'm not sure if uh if
you're around or not yo i'm here um i don't really have anything
to say man uh this has been wabi there was um there was a twitter space when sbf uh like blew
up and you know he was being asked like is ftx liquid and he was playing league of legends as
he was like hosting that Twitter space.
This Twitter space has been more entertaining than that one.
That's all I can say.
Thanks, man.
Thanks.
I remember that space.
I remember it.
You heard the clicking and stuff.
No, man, I don't have anything to say, really.
Two things can be true at the same time, man.
I think it makes sense to believe in Bitcoin long term.
I also think it does not make sense to buy into a downtrending asset.
That's really it.
As far as like when I'm looking for reversals,
I'm really not basing it off of price action
so much this time around.
Uh, because the only thing that I would have would be those 200 weekly moving averages,
which we're currently trading at.
We saw in the last cycle that they don't really mean anything all that much anymore.
So there's not really a floor that I can really target, but there is a
certain dynamic that's been persistent in this market and it is relative weakness to equities.
And that's been the case since Bitcoin was actually trading at all-time highs. We had
Bitcoin shopping sideways in a three-month range as even SPY or SPX trekked higher into new all time highs every
single day. And then we saw that dynamic shift and that relative strength got an even bigger
kind of discrepancy where we broke down below that range and SPY and equities continued to trek
into new all time highs nonetheless. And then we saw Bitcoin lose a three-year uptrend
for the first time in three years. And then we saw equities continue to make new all-time highs.
And so that's where we're at now. We've come off of a negative 40, negative 50% sell-off just from
the three-year uptrend alone. You don't need a crystal ball in order to predict that that's going to happen.
It's pretty logical. Just kind of like a directionally proportional kind of move to the
one prior. And if you think about what is the incentive to buy crypto, it is high beta. So
when there's not really any outperformance on a higher beta asset, all that means is there's underperformance.
So if SPY sneezes, then crypto jumps off of a cliff.
And I've been saying this since Bitcoin had a $100,000 handle.
All we've seen is price move lower.
That doesn't do anything for me.
It doesn't make me more bullish because the same
dynamics that have been true continue to be true. I need to see that dynamic change. And typically,
historically, what we've seen is that dynamic only changes after all markets kind of get like a reset.
And so you can use 2022 as a proxy, ironically. I was hearing a lot of four-year cycles don't exist anymore up until
Bitcoin sold off negative 40% not too long ago, right? In this past month. And now all of a sudden
that argument has gone away. I still think that you can just use that 2022 cycle as a proxy pretty
much. We're looking for essentially equities to fall off a cliff. And what that means is more than likely the higher beta industries are going to have to endure even more pain in the short to midterm.
And then we'll see an eventual continuation of the same dynamic where when the environment is favorable across the board, crypto outperforms.
And then we see relative weakness highlighted throughout the year.
I've seen a lot of fallacies of like, we've never seen this relative weakness
before between crypto and equities.
And the irony is that it's happened every single year for the past eight years.
So the good news is we have seen this before.
So the good news is we have seen this before.
We know exactly what to expect.
We know exactly what to expect.
Really, there's not too much of a shocker as to what happens if the stock market crashes from here.
There's a big shocker if the stock market crashes to a greater degree than anything it has the past 15 years or so.
Because crypto really only started to become retail friendly and more open to the general public
in like 2017 cycle. And that has been an incredibly favorable environment for equities
ever since then. And we're going to be, because we're higher beta, we're going to be basing
our performance based off of equities. So equities have been in a bull market the past
15 years straight. We don't know what
the market looks like. We don't know what crypto looks like if equities are not in a bull market.
I'm not talking a year-long pullback and then bottom is in and we run it back turbo. I'm talking
a much bigger catalyst. So 2000, 2008 kind of thing. I'm not saying that that's going to be what happens, but that's the
thing to truly be fearful of. Not if stocks crash from here, because we've literally seen that every
single year for the past eight years, you know exactly what to expect. There's nothing new under
the sun. So that's the good part. But yeah, man, I'm still a big believer. I think like David was saying, even if we do get something along those lines, year, two year, three year kind of hibernation, I think he called it then I was too busy being born or playing with Power Rangers.
So that's going to be my opportunity if that happens to that kind of extent.
And I fear what happens to crypto if that happens.
But I'm still bullish on this industry and I'm still bullish risk assets long term.
Thanks for coming on, man.
Are you doing any active trading or are you just like just waiting until the market shows
some strength to play any upside?
No, dude.
95% of my profit from the past four months has come from one trade where I bought the
Pico Schmeco bottom on Bitcoin.
I called it in real time and then I sold 71,000.
And that was it.
I called the trade a week before.
I called it in real time and I called it before it happened.
And that has been the trade that has dictated 95% of the profit that I've yielded from the past four months.
And it's not really any different
than it usually is. It's just that instead of taking a counter trend trade, more often than
not, I am just respecting trends and those trends where we actually are reminiscent of a bull market.
Because if you look at this cycle, the past three years or so, it's been very infrequent where those
opportunities have actually been persistent and the market wants to relentlessly
uptrend and see rotations, et cetera, et cetera. Those come very few and far between, but that's
not anything new. So we go sideways or even we go down and then all of a sudden we see a two or
three month outperformance. And then same thing, Pareto principle, 80-20, 80% of the profits that I make come from 20% of my time trading the market.
These past four or five months have not been any different.
I showed my humility.
I got out of my positions.
I went stables in my trading portfolio.
And pretty much all my trading has been very negligible.
1.5 are here, 2 there's negative one negative one you know
chopped up whatever just very slight incremental kind of change my pnl because because the
environment warrants warrants that right it doesn't warrant a portfolio changing kind of trades
it warrants caution it warrants a defensive mindset. And then eventually what
ends up happening is you get presented an opportunity, whether it's a volatility event
or a upward reversal in trend, you get presented an opportunity. It's kind of hard not to take it
at that point when you've been the person that has had their foot on the brakes, right? And you're
ready to go, but you've just been parked this whole time, essentially. Those opportunities just seem that much more obvious. So I have it all laid out,
the whole thesis as to how we would get to 60K, why I thought 60K. And at 60K, I put out a tweet
and said bottom, and the timestamp is there, 60,200 was my entry. And I said, I'm looking to just sell 71,000 and avoid
the chop for the next few weeks or a month. And I do think that this market goes lower, man,
unfortunately. And the reality is the dynamic is this, as long as the alpha asset continues to show
relative strength to the beta asset there is no incentive
to go and trade the beta and you saw this happen on ethereum relative to bitcoin you saw this
happen on silver relative to gold dude i think it's fucking hilarious that that silver maximus
were the main character for like the past four months or whatever, because those motherfuckers have underperformed
just about every market ever for the past 15 years. And then silver broke out into all-time
highs. And then it started to match the strength that gold matched. And then it just had this
acceleration rally where all of a sudden silver is now an outperforming asset. It now beats
inflation, right? And it actually matches other industries' performance for the past decade. That all happened within the past five or six
months. Other than that, there is no incentive to go and trade the beta assets. So this is exactly
why we saw Ethereum die for three years straight relative to Bitcoin, because it's higher beta relative to Bitcoin and it's also
weaker. We saw it trade in ranges or downtrend even as Bitcoin was breaking out and uptrending.
And it's the same thing. You carry that dynamic, you copy and paste it from the crypto market to
the equities market. There's no incentive to go and trade crypto and take risk in that sector if the equities market
is outperforming. When your alpha is outperforming, there is no incentive to go trade a weaker beta
with higher volatility because all that means is not only is it higher volatility, but it's higher
volatility to the wrong direction. It's higher volatility to the downside. So you're taking on
more risk for no really good reason. So that's why I say it kind of feels like we need a reset because
this dynamic has been persistent. It has not gone anywhere. And as long as it doesn't go anywhere,
there's going to continue to not be an incentive to allocate your hard-earned money into crypto market and take all this risk and yield this
negative reward and high volatile negative reward at that. There's just no incentive to do that.
So we need ripping off of the band-aid and then the same dynamic that has been the dynamic for
literally every single year for the past eight years, you can go back and check when have we seen prolonged Bitcoin relative weakness relative to the stock market, that same dynamic
can take shape all over again.
But until then, we're just going to sit here in the same environment.
And if stocks want to continue breaking out again, maybe that allows for some kind of
relief bounce in crypto, but it's more than likely just going to be that.
It's going to be relief.
And then we're going to see that underwhelming lower high all over again and probably followed with more chop and or downtrend.
So there's not a price in my mind, man, especially if stock market wants to break to a greater degree than anything seen
in the past 15 years. And it's not because I'm a bear. It's not because I'm a doomsayer. And it's
not because I read the fucking Cinturney article, right? Truthfully, I thought it was not all that
great. It's not because of that. It's because it's a trend and all trends break. And if you
do not subscribe to that thesis, then I have a bridge to sell you at that point.
Like, I don't know what to tell you.
All trends break.
Every single one.
It always happens.
There is nothing new under the sun.
The same people that told me or that would say something like stocks have reached a permanent plateau, right?
In 1929 or whatever, probably said the same thing in 2000s.
It's the same market dynamics over and over and over again.
So, I mean, bar something like that, man, that would be what truly scares me.
But in the meantime, there's no price, man.
There's no, let's target this level as the bottom.
It's a dynamic thing.
It's a relationship.
Until that relationship goes away, then there's nothing you can do about it.
You're at the mercy of the market.
Real, man.
Thanks for coming on and giving some of your thoughts, man.
I appreciate it.
I see Prometheus requested to speak.
Let's see what he has to say.
Prometheus, what's up, bro?
Yo, is it time for me to cook?
Do you want to cook?
Is it time for me to cook?
If you'd like, man.
If you'd like, go ahead.
Okay, I mean, because I was quite literally just starting to cook.
Oh, okay.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
I was about to make some chicken alfredo but i think i need to make
uh a few comments one i mean this space has been crazy thank you to everybody who's come up here
thus far i mean absolutely nutso nutso topic and banter going on but you love it man i mean
this is what makes the show entertaining like this is this is why, this is exactly why we, uh, we do
this, right. It makes it entertaining for you guys and it makes it entertaining for us. But anyways,
uh, I mean, I agree. I just joined up, but from the last 60 seconds I've been in the space, I agree
with a majority of what, uh, Mercury has said thus far, so far.
I just, you know, I kind of view price and I've said it several times, you know, I'm not like I'm not new to this, to the bear camps.
Right.
I mean, people in this space were clowning me when Bitcoin was at two or when MicroStrategy
was at 210.
Right.
And I said it was going to go to 50 bucks.
You know, those same people have been telling you to buy the entire way down.
You know, when I came on here and, you know,
I said Coinbase was probably going to go to like $75 a share
when it was trading well over $250, right?
Those same people were telling you to buy.
You know, and they want to call themselves
sophisticated investors. And people like to listen to them because they have big followings,
they might sound sophisticated, and they drink fancy wine. But at the end of the day, like they
sound like three year olds, you know, and they want to belittle and degrade people in these spaces.
And that is what it is. And price is going to be the ultimate arbiter of truth. And at the end of the day, that's the most important thing, right? So I think that we're
going to continue in the downtrend. I don't think that that's, you know, you know, super like
sentient idea to have. I think, you know, just from a broader perspective, we've been in,
I think, you know, just from a broader perspective, we've been in or we were in a bull market for arguably like 36 plus months, right?
From the around 36 months, right?
From the 22 lows, a little bit over that to the highs that we set at the end of last year.
And, you know, the rotational effects like the cyclicality can also be described in price and price is a direct reflection of emotion.
Right. And as we exited euphoria that people somehow did not think we had were at euphoria at any point, the cycle blows my mind.
But as we exit euphoria from a cyclical perspective, if you look at like any oscillator,
like an RSI, right? You could say that when price was up at like 126, we were like at like 90, 95
on the RSI, whatever. And as we start to head down and enter into like the quote unquote oversold
territory of the RSI or to the troughing out period of any cycle. If that is reflected in
price and the price is a direct reflection of emotion, that means that we have yet to enter
what I believe to be peak fear. What did we see today? Everybody at the lows, at the open this
morning, I should not say everybody, but we saw a tremendous amount of long positioning,
not say everybody, but we saw a tremendous amount of long positioning or longs coming in at the open.
That is not, I mean, one, it's, yeah, sure. It's like intraday price action, but
like that does not mark out a high timeframe bottom to me. Right. You know, I've mentioned
this to the discord several, several, several times. There are two forms of, there are two bottom formations, right?
You either have low volatility compression and institutional smart money absorption,
meaning that they're absorbing retail and they're pinning price. Look at, you know,
study the price action at the lows of 22, also at the lows in 18. It's, you know, it's, I mean,
it's obvious.
It paints a very clear picture or you have COVID style events, 08 style events.
You know, you have, you know, great depression style events where you have massive capitulation.
And if you see that black swan event happen, then obvious, let's go out.
You know, we have a massive, you know, systemic event, systemic risk event, and it blows everything
And then everything actually goes on discount.
And, you know, the VIX blows out to the upside and it's, you know, market wide, nothing's
safe.
Now, what about the last two to three to four months of price action has been systemic in
any way, shape or form?
Nothing.
It has not been systemic in any way, shape or form. Nothing. It has not been systemic in any way,
shape or form. So it's not a black swan. And it's not that crypto is just like
magically discounted at these prices, right? Or that there's like a fire sale or that like,
you know, I need to be buying this price action immediately. No, I mean, it's quite the opposite. I think that we're just,
you know, rotating from a cyclical, you know, a price, you know, emotional dynamic perspective
towards that troughing period that we have yet to fully enter into. And once we get there,
if it's just a, you know, a standard bottoming, you know, formation, right. Or accumulation and well absorption,
um, or I should say like retail absorption, because we're absorbing, you know, retail and
they're capitulating and they're just pinning price and they're not, you know, really driving
it up, but they're, you know, just letting it, you know, passively come to them and filling
their bags. Then sure. The bottom might be in a 66 K, but what has told you in three weeks that that has happened nothing nothing
right so i'm patient and i'm not gonna sit here and cope right and pretend to tell you or pretend
like all is you know sunshine and rainbows and that if you just buy your bags and you forget
about them for 20 years you're gonna be fine Like that's such a poor way of approaching the market. And if you want to go do that,
just buy the S&P 500, you're going to reduce your amount of emotional distress and headache.
And it's going to be so much easier mentally. And you literally can forget about it.
Right. But if you're listening into these spaces, you probably are doing some form of active
management. If you're doing some form of active
management, buying something and having the idea that I'm just going to hold it for the next 15 to
20 years, for the most part, is probably not in your best interest, I would assume. There's a
reason why you're probably in these spaces, like I said, and whatever reason that may be,
is probably to be compounding wealth. And the majority of
positions do not significantly compound your wealth by just buying and holding it for 15 years.
If you got into Bitcoin early enough, sure it did. Maybe Nvidia, surely enough it did.
But how many NVIDIAs and Bitcoin are there really going to be and how lucky do you have to get to position with size, with enough size to hold something for 15 to 20 years, forget about it and come back and then just like make generational wealth and ride off into the sunset.
I would bet that, you know, 99% of people are going to miss that. And so some form of active management is probably the best approach, right? And I'm not
going to like, you know, sing you a sweet lullaby and tell you that mega cap tech and hyperscalers
have like an endless balance sheet and are just going to be able to, you know, continually blast every single charge and load that they have, you know, into AI infrastructure
build out. Like, I just think that that, like, I mean, David made a great point earlier, right?
If you look back to fiber, right, it's literally almost a direct reflection of what's happening
right now. At what point later down the road,
is somebody going to be able to train models that don't, you know, use necessarily a ton of power?
Or, you know, what if we come out with like a very specialized chip that doesn't take a
tremendous amount of power or, you know, doesn't, you know, need all these requirements that a
traditional data center, you know, meets, right? Because that's what innovation
is. Like, do you think that the path forward is building out tens of thousands of hundred thousand
square foot warehouses across the, you know, across the globe that literally suck all the
water dry out of wherever they're at, stress out the grid and the infrastructure and cost trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars.
I don't think that's the path forward. I don't think that's the way forward.
I think that, interestingly enough, as an optimist, that there's going to be far more innovation from a hardware perspective over the next 10 to 15 years.
years is going to push that boundary and push that front. And then also in the near to midterm
It's going to push that boundary and push that front.
to believe that CapEx has not reached a saturation perspective or that hyperscaler CapEx has not
reached a saturation period locally speaking. Like $650 billion over the last 12 months alone,
which is now more than that with the new meta announcement, It's now $750 billion in the last year alone
towards AI infrastructure build out, right? And do we really think that OpenAI is such a great
company that 80% of its revenue comes from a $20 a month subscription? Is that really innovative?
Like, is that really game changing? Like, do we Do the valuations make sense?
$1.5 trillion of deliverables.
Does that make sense?
How many of those do you have to sell to reach that number?
Please tell me.
It's a ton.
It's a ton.
And so I just have more of a,
okay, are we at most likely a saturation point here locally
speaking from an ai perspective from the hardware side which has been the driver of flows for the
past 24 months i.e the nvidia trade um the list goes on and on and on and on and guess what phase
we're in now is probably the disruption phase where we actually
figure out what large company business models are we about to blow up, i.e. potentially IBM,
I mean, Adobe, the list goes on and on and on and on and on. And we enter into a revaluation phase.
And if you don't see the characteristic flows that we've seen over
the past 24 months on the hardware side that have largely carried the market, and they are probably
reached a saturation period because the markets are forward looking and the valuations have
probably reached their peak for the most part, at least from the short to midterm. And you're
then going to see the opposite end of the spectrum, the software side implode on itself.
Why do we not enter into revaluation
and disruption like that's what i just don't get like that's what i don't get like do i want to be
buying like walmart at a 50 forward pe like do i want to be buying gold at like 50400 an ounce or $5,200 an ounce or whatever it's at. I don't. I genuinely don't. It's just
not attractive to me at the current market price. Just genuinely speaking, the majority of assets
are not. I think there's a select names that you can get away with buying here that will appreciate great in the short to near term
as an active trader's perspective. Things that we've been positioning in actively have been
Archrock, Exxon, Chevron, and they've done great. Those have done great. But
I hate to look at the market here and like call a bottom. And I've been,
I've been saying that for quite some time. I said, when you lost, you know, a hundred K,
like it was over, like it was over. There was, there was no, once you lost a hundred K,
there was no coming back. You created 18 months of supply or 12 months of supply. And then once
you lost 87.5 on Bitcoin, you then created 18 months of supply. And are you going to tell me that we're going to then somehow magically view recover and, you know, chew through 18 months of supply and just go willy nilly back to all time highs without a meaningful reaccumulation phase when every single narrative has been dried up and Bitcoin is essentially just a,
you know, working, has worked on the corner and been, you know, ran through by the team
and with every single narrative at this point, the cycle, right?
I don't see what else at this point for Bitcoin, at least right now, that's like significantly
going to change the forward outlook from a short to midterm time horizon.
going to change the forward outlook from a short to midterm time horizon. Like big players are
exiting for a reason. Serious money managers do not want an allocation, right? MicroStrategy
is now down on their stack and they are trying desperately to tread water.
and they are trying desperately to tread water.
I look at the Solana digital asset treasury companies,
which will go to zero.
Tom Lee, as much as we want him to win,
I have a really tough time
seeing a successful story come out of that.
And these are just things that will probably happen
in a prolonged bear market, right?
I mean, we saw, if you would have said the same things
about like a Doquan, a 3AC, an SBF,
before they blew up,
like before they all started blowing up,
people would have called you crazy.
There's no way Sam Bankman-Fried's gonna blow up.
Are you kidding me, FTX?
No, no. Tara Luna, kidding me, FTX? No.
Tara Luna?
Get out.
Get out of here.
Right?
You're...
Suzu?
Right?
Suzu's going to blow up?
You're on crack.
Right?
And then what happened?
Then what happened?
The story wrote itself right
and it's going to again it's only it's it's going to again it's a mirror that's all life is it's
just a mirror whatever you see right whatever you perceive is your reality right whatever you perceive is your reality
um and it just depends what lens you're looking through like that is kind of the
matter of fact and the truth behind it um and price will be the ultimate arbiter of truth
like we always say man and that's kind of what i'm here is like, I just want to speak. I don't want to speak in hyperboles and I don't want to fear
monger. And I don't want to tell you that there was never a bull market in Bitcoin.
When we saw Pepe go to like deck of billions and, you know, like, or not what, what did Pepe
at Pepe at like 11 bill or something like that like you can't tell
me there wasn't a bull market like you are high on a kite if you're telling me that bitcoin did
not have a bull market this cycle right we went from what 15k at the pico schmico low 15 and 15
and change to 126 and you're telling me there wasn't a bull market like what in god's green earth are you
like are you smoking i'm so i'm sorry um you want to tell me that solana on chain with multiple
billion dollar runners um and you could literally go in there you you could download, you had 14 year olds in junior high printing six figs
with a phantom wallet in the middle of class. And you want to tell me there's no, there was no bull
market. Like, stop, stop. Like my own real world experience. I had people coming to me telling me
that had no business, right. hadn't like they've no business
telling me what to buy or what to buy or whatever telling me to buy xrp and xyz right and that's my
own experience and these were the same signals that i saw last cycle right that marked the highs
and instead of looking at this as like negative n Prometheus and Prometheus is like, you know, fear mongering us and whatever.
I'm actually looking at it through the other light as if we do get a market wide reset, which I believe is coming just based off of what I'm seeing in the market.
It will present one of the best buying opportunities that we've had since COVID, if not the best buying opportunity that we've had since COVID.
one of the best buying opportunities that we've had since COVID, if not the best buying opportunity
that we've had since COVID. And I think it's going to present the younger generation an opportunity
to buy discounted assets which they've not been able to meaningfully since the COVID lows.
Right? And I'm not saying that we're going to go to prices XYZ. I have levels that are marked out
and I watch to see what price is going to do around those levels. And if it does certain
things and I react appropriately, but I don't really care what price it goes to.
Because I do think forward looking enough in the long term, things are very, very, very bullish.
Ford looking enough in the long term, things are very, very, very bullish, very, very,
very bullish.
And I think that you have to be an optimist.
And when those people that were optimistic the entire way down finally capitulate their
bags at the bottom and finally jump on the camp that I need to sell everything and that
it's going to zero and that the United States is imploding and the United States stock market's
a Ponzi and you're gonna hear like literally the this rhetoric to a t block them mute them write something on your wall
i will not listen to that garbage and i will buy that generational entry that's kind of what i have
to say tina had his hand up.
Tina, what's going on, man?
Make sure you scream when you speak.
I'm not going to scream, Bobby.
I'm going to disappoint you.
So there are two really big ideas here that Prometheus and Mercury just said.
They both said a lot.
But they're just two big ideas.
One, Mercury said,
trends don't last forever.
Mercury's right about that. And what Prometheus said, he said a lot of stuff, but what he really said was that if you look back on the last hundred and some odd years, there have been hundreds of
thousands of stocks and other types of things you could have bought.
But actually, very few of them have lasted, and they make up the bulk of market cap in the markets.
And even of the ones that have lasted, many of them have gone away.
And you could use the S&P 500 as an example of that because that gets refreshed.
use the S&P 500 as an example of that because that gets refreshed. A major classic example,
which some of you may or may not know of, is a company called Eastman Kodak, which was one of
the biggest companies in the world for a very long time. And I had an argument with somebody
in the early 2000s that digital pictures were going to replace film. They told me I was wrong. Do you have film for your camera? It's gone. So you need to remember those two things. It's really important. And everything else is just discussion around those two themes.
George, what's up, man?
I saw you had your hand up as well.
Hey, thanks a bunch.
I agree with what Tina said.
I heard from him.
I didn't hear the guy before him.
I guess the varying perception, what I'd like to add to the discussion,
I don't want to repeat what everyone else has said.
I think we're going through a regime change.
And this is much bigger than Bitcoin.
This is just what's going on with markets, broadly speaking. and this is much bigger than Bitcoin.
This is just what's going on with markets, broadly speaking.
The most liquidity sense of assets and technology for different reasons,
I think, are all now toast.
I think Prometheus was speaking about the AI trade and whatever.
I think that's toast.
And I think purely liquidity liquidity driven assets are also toast
and the problem is this has worked so for so long the extrapolators keep extrapolating but in line with um bitcoin team was saying things don't last forever and so important thing the what which is
the price is the why people focus too much on the what.
Instead, you focus on the drivers.
Like, why is something doing what it's doing?
So you figure out the why.
Then you can think about the what.
Too many people just look at the what, which is the price.
I've never seen another asset like Bitcoin.
I mean, let's give credit where it's due.
I mean, it had a hell of a run.
It was a great ride while it lasted.
I'm telling you, the ride is now over.
And, you know, the haters will come on and say,
well, you know, it's up at 18% over the last 17 years.
Yeah, you know, Bitcoin, I think, is now, what, flat over?
I don't know how many years.
That was it now is now.
And as I say, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
So you've got to think about the why.
And the why has to do with liquidity.
And the why has to do with technology.
And, you know, if I had told everyone in this room a year ago
that gold would double, silver would triple,
and the Nasdaq would be would triple, and NASDAQ
would be up big.
And then I asked everyone for $50 in double jeopardy, what do you think Bitcoin's going
to do?
To a man, we would have said up.
Because that's what it correlates to.
Michael Hiles done great work through regression.
Look at what drives.
Sometimes it's a quoted-driven asset.
Sometimes it's a highly speculative asset.
You know, NASDAQ's coming early to NASDAQ.
Well, you've had everything working for it it you had gold the silver up big you had nasdaq doing really well and bitcoin did
it dirt now so you got to ask yourself what's going on and again there's the old mark twain
line you know it's not what you don't know that'll hurt you it's what you think you know that ain't
true so if if one is long bitcoin, again, it's not about Bitcoin.
It's a liquidity-driven asset, period.
You got to ask yourself, what the hell is going on here?
And I think the sort of enduring confidence, the complacency, the extrapolators,
they're not being honest with themselves.
And all this other stuff, look, I don't know, this is maybe right.
Who knows?
Maybe you get a big wipeout.
You know, a few years from now, you're going to be able to
buy Bitcoin and other stuff for generational
lows. Who knows?
Could be right, could be wrong. We have no idea.
Let's just talk about where we are right now.
And we'll take a wing on the
long term as a series of short terms and medium terms.
And right here and right now,
the drivers of Bitcoin
are all negative. And you have on top of that the
selling by you know a lot of old work counts with big positions to me bitcoin reminds me very much
the japanese stock market back in the 80s one of the reasons japan did so well you know you had
strong yen falling rates blah blah blah, blah, blah.
But a key feature of it was the flow to the Japanese stock record was very small.
So let's say at $100 billion market cap, I'm just making up numbers.
It looked like $100 billion market cap, but the reality was there's only $20 billion worth of float because of the cross holdings.
And one feature about Bitcoin has been how illiquid it is, which is great on the way up because, you
know, supply can't really expand, but it's not so great on the way down.
And that's what we're experiencing right now.
So, and I think it was, I think it was Parenthes was saying it.
I've written this.
I've said it a lot recently.
People should expect the unexpected.
Stuff's going to happen.
It's going to make your head explode.
And for me, I wouldn't put a price on where Bitcoin is going to.
I don't know.
I just think it's going a lot lower, a lot lower, a lot lower.
Because, you know, it's not going up when it should.
It's telling you that, you you know there's more sellers than buyers
kind of reminds me jesse livermore remnants as a stock operator you know back in the day in the 20s whenever he'd get a tip he would do the opposite of what the tipster was saying so if
someone said buy xyz he'd try to short it on the view on the thought that it's being he's being set
up now if he could short it easily like there was a bid
then okay there are buyers for them that item that's fine but if you're trying to short
something you couldn't get much off that's telling you there really isn't a bid he's being set up
so i'm telling you there's no bid in bitcoin and i view the institutionalization of Bitcoin as a huge negative because those were the last guys in.
And they've also served to dampen the volatility of Bitcoin, which is a huge negative.
Did he cut out for everyone?
Yeah, I can't hear him.
Just me.
He probably got a call or something like that.
Give it a few more seconds. Yeah, it seems like he had to take a call then.
Does anyone else have anything else to say?
I'm pretty much cooked.
We've been going for about four hours now.
Mercury, Tina, Prometheus, anything else that you guys want to say?
No, thanks, Prometheus, anything else that you guys want to say? No thanks, Bobby.
Yeah, I'm good. It was an awesome space.
It was a really, really good space.
Oh, he's requesting right now.
I'll see what...
You should re-listen to
the broad strokes of what Mercury and
Prometheus said.
I don't agree with everything that each of them said, but they had some pretty good ideas.
It's really important.
People really do put too much weight on thinking they've found the forever asset.
That's really hard to do, and there are very few forever assets and even if you think you found a
forever asset you might be wrong it's really important to understand that because there's
long histories of this and no matter what people will tell you about it
even forever assets are not forever.
And you can look at the history of it.
It's really important to understand that and the framing.
It's really important.
And it's really easy to slip into a mindset of wanting to believe.
You should never love or hate anything you're investing in.
Because when you're loving it or hating it, your reason just went out the window.
Emotion is not a good thing when it comes to investing. Leave your emotion for your loved ones.
George, what's up, man? You cut cut off there you were speaking yeah so I was talking about how the institutionalization Bitcoin to me is a huge negative because it's dampened the volatility
and one of the features attractive features of Bitcoin has been the volatility I was over in
a space a few weeks ago and I space a few weeks ago I still like gold
silver so much but I don't like I don't like Bitcoin and this young fellow comes
in and he says yeah you know George I sold my Bitcoin you know he's I agree
that gold silver disagree with you I'm Bitcoin okay so why'd you sell your
Bitcoin to buy a gold and silver he's like well because it
wasn't it wasn't going up enough i go well you just proved my point so in a world where you
can do zero dte options or prediction markets or sports betting tongue in cheap i was in the
steve eisenberg podcast the other day and i caught people getting triggered when I say this, but I said, you know what? Bitcoin is for boomers.
By that I meant, you know,
Facebook's only used by boomers, okay?
Bitcoin's yesterday's story.
They're much sharper, shinier objects to play with.
So, from the standpoint of,
yeah, I had institutional adoption.
Vol's down.
The macro drivers are going the wrong way you see a lot of the older while it's not opening up I think it's a disaster and you know like I don't know how far down I
don't know when but I just know it's down and if you're sending me George I'm just gonna contextualize
you said George could Bitcoin be at 30,000 this year?
Yeah, it could be. I don't know.
I don't want someone to come yelling back at me and say,
well, you know, you said it was going to 30,000 and it went to 45.
But I think it's down.
And there's no way in hell I would own this thing.
In fact, I am small short.
So, I think it's over.
And you know, it's funny.
You get regime change, whether it's in the 80s. Japanese stocks, the only one thing, they go up until they don't.
Or you do late 90s into the tech boom, tech stocks go up until they don't.
Or, you know, 07, 08, Kamaya stocks go up until they don't.
I mean, what happens is the extrapolators all jump on board when people get complacent.
Like Tina was saying,
they'll start to hate or love what they own.
I think that's where we are on Bitcoin.
And I look also, you know, I get a lot of flack
because I'm a boomer or whatever.
And I'm embarrassed on Bitcoin, neutral on Bitcoin, whatever.
I got it right, I got it wrong.
I'm telling you, the hate-o-meter right now
is on the ceiling. People are so angry. Right, I got it wrong. I'm telling you, the hate-o-meter right now
is on the ceiling. People are so
angry, so desperate.
There's complete lack of he's gone for me again i don't know about you guys yeah yeah same same with me man um
murky anything you want to say uh bitcoin isn't gonna Bitcoin isn't going to die. Don't believe it.
He's a boomer.
I know who he is.
I studied Peter Lynch like crazy.
Don't believe it.
I agree that the market's going to go lower,
but come on, man.
This is the exact epitome of what you want to hear people saying
is that it's over, it's dead, it's a fad, it's a trend,
and it's not anything that I haven't heard before being here since 2017.
I've heard the exact same thing over and over and over and over and over again.
It's going to be just fine, man.
You're going to have to endure some more pain.
And if stocks break down anything crazier than what we've seen at any point in the past 15 years and start to look reminiscent of 2008 and 2000, it's every man for themselves and duck and cover and just play defense.
And then we're just going to emerge out of that all over again.
The casino thesis is alive in a well, I assure you.
People are going to want to play things in this industry for exact reasons as to why Prometheus said people are coping that we didn't have a bull market.
Bitcoin didn't have a bull market.
We absolutely did because, yeah, 14 year olds came in on their phantom wallets and were able to make themselves millionaires in the span of just a couple of weeks.
It's going to happen again, man.
And the irony is, as prices go higher, that only becomes more true. And is as prices go higher that only becomes more true
and as prices go lower that only becomes more true if you don't understand why that is it's
because you're not meant to and i'll end on that note let's go man that's a great place to wrap it
up i want to thank all of the speakers i want to thank murk t Tina, Benetius, George, Mike, David, Evan, Sullivan.
Thank you all so much for coming on to today's show.
Thank you, thank you, thank you.
But guys, if you've enjoyed the show, if you've enjoyed the content that you've been listening to over the last four hours, my name's Wabi.
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