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Market Talk: HUGE move for crypto soon!? Stocks hit new highs!?
Recorded: Dec. 23, 2025 Duration: 2:09:42Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent Market Talk session, crypto enthusiasts discussed the current stagnation in the market, with Bitcoin and altcoins showing little movement. The conversation highlighted the importance of adapting trading strategies to current market conditions, emphasizing caution and the potential for future growth as regulatory changes loom on the horizon.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. . Thank you. Hey I'm gonna keep it.
The front is out of the room.
And for it Oh You carry on
oh Oh What Yeah. Thank you. Music Thank you. Don't let you down Overload of hearts, stumble
Hit the ground that's heavy rumble
Let all not be so humble
Fumble while you're crying
All you've been dying
You can't carry
All you've been dying
When you're crying
All you've been dying
Dying in the day Oh Oh Oh Yo, what's going on, guys?
Welcome back to Market Talk, brought to you by BB.
This is our Christmas special.
And I'm sure some of you guys have heard this song that I just played.
It's called Atlas Rise by Metallica.
I've probably played it a couple of dozen times before I start the show here, man.
And that song has uh some
significance to me man um especially with uh what happened yesterday during my training session i
was literally an inch away from locking out 700 on axle bar deadlifts belt beltless, and I failed. So that was my Christmas present to myself.
I'm going to use that song as motivation. But today, man, you've got the S&P talking about
markets now. And you have the S&P and you also have the Qs a couple of points away from going
into price discovery. And crypto is kind of just flatlined again.
There's really nothing happening in crypto.
And I really think you're probably going to have to see the same thing that we've seen
over the last few years, where any time there's a massive flush in the equity markets and
in crypto, we had quite a correction in stocks in November, massive correction in crypto
as well for all coins usually
when that kind of stuff happens you typically need to see equities rally
significantly above their previous all-time highs but I want to thank you
all for coming back to market talk welcome welcome hope you're all doing
fine as I said during yesterday's stream, this week we're only going to be going live here two times.
So today is the last stream for the rest of the week.
So if you guys are listening in right now, if you want to come on up, talk some shop, ask any questions,
give your thoughts on the market and all that stuff, you're more than welcome to come right on in.
We also have Gold and Silver also having uh quite the week uh year to date
silver has honestly been insane honestly um but over the last few decades really hasn't been
much price action uh for silver at all um i think the all-time high that uh that silver made
was after decades of essentially just bleeding against all markets across the board.
But got Chill up here, Ragsy up here, also have David after quite some time.
But I'm going to go ahead and just pass the mic on over, see what they're doing for Christmas, how their week is looking like.
But before I do that, guys, if you guys can go go ahead show some love to the space share the stream just click the spaces tab and then right above
our profile pictures you'll see that link and uh just hit the like button repost button any
questions you guys might have if you guys don't want to come up just uh type it in in the uh
purple chat box to the right uh but like i said a few moments ago if you guys uh are interested in
uh coming up to the stage talking markets asking questions to any of us on the panel you're more
than free uh to do so just hit the request button to the bottom left and uh yeah we'll get started
on the app session so i'm gonna go with chill ragsy, and then David in order. So, Chill, what's going on, bro?
How's your week looking like, man?
There's absolutely nothing going on chain at all whatsoever.
I don't even think we have anything coming up for crypto specifically.
Maybe the Jupiter airdroprop which has happened every january
maybe that could be a little stimulus for the trenches what do you think man
well first off great to be here thanks for having me back um look as far as on chain goes i'm
i'm just chilling i'm family maxing right now, enjoying the week. I think we're in store
for a pretty wild 2026, if I do say so myself, or at least that's what I'm looking at. That's
what I'm seeing from my end, and that's what I'm preparing for. I think a lot of people,
they kind of misspend their energy, right?
They mismanage where they put their time and their energy.
And I think trying to trade these choppy markets where it's BART season on Bitcoin
the last several weeks on chain, like no narrative.
There's no narrative right now.
Nothing really goes up
or is able to sustain a consistent volume.
Narratives haven't caught fire and been able to hold it consistent volume narratives haven't caught and haven't caught caught fire and
been able to hold it for, for longer than a week. That's really been the, the, the, the conditions
on chain. Will there inevitably be some trade that goes up for sure? Like, you know, DGENs will DGEN,
you know, something inevitably will go up. But right now, I don't believe it's the best
environment to actively trade. And with it being, you know, the close of the end of the year going
into the new year, it's just the best time to spend time with family, friends, you know, recently,
over this last week or two, I've been I've been reminded of how how precious time is with family. And, you know, so I think these times are ones
that you cherish, right? Like the market isn't going to give us a break. I mean, think back to
Q4 of last year and Q1 early this year when, you know, things were really, you know, the markets
were really coming along well, volume was high, you almost needed to be locked in,
you know, more days than not, more often than not.
And so, you know, time spent on other activities was pretty limited. So when you do get these moments in markets, these weeks where absolutely nothing happens,
you know, use that to really expand, you know, what you do in your real life.
Make memories of people that you love, you know, you know, show up, show up for your family.
Right. Like, you know, spend time with them, because ultimately that's what we're in this game for.
That's what we're doing all this for is for the freedom to spend our time and live our life on our own terms.
So if the market is already kind of
giving you an opportunity to do that here in the short term, you know, you might as well take it,
especially knowing, again, the way I'm positioning for next year, it's going to be a pretty wild
year. So knowing that next year is going to be pretty crazy, you want to, you know, kind of
front load some of that time that you need to spend IRL. So that's kind of the, that's the only alpha that I have for today.
I'm looking at Bitcoin.
It doesn't look like it's been in a, it doesn't look strong at all.
Pretty choppy at these lows.
We've literally spent time hovering around the same price, you know, for days.
And, you know, I would even say, you even say weeks on a much larger, kind of larger range between,
let's call it 83.6 and 94K. So we haven't really, I don't think we've really found our bottom,
at least from a probability perspective, the door is still open for something like a retest of 80K, maybe even wicking below that.
The door is still open for a retest of 84K, even wicking below that.
So there's still downside risk.
There's still choppy markets, as we have seen.
Everyone has noticed the BART memes.
It's choppy.
It's manipulated.
It's just not the greatest trading environment.
On-chain has no narrative.
Memes have lost their lore.
So what am I doing right now?
I'm chilling.
And I'm even experimenting a little bit with prediction markets, actually,
and positioning again for
2026, where I feel like prediction markets will kind of have their wealth generation
event.
So that's really it.
That's all the offer that I have.
Just chill.
Maybe put on a prediction market trade or two or none, depending on what you want to
get into.
But yeah, I mean, markets are choppy.
No sense in trading these markets, and there's not a need to trade every day.
Dude, where's Pasternak, man?
Guys lost in his sauce, bro.
Guys lost in his sauce.
Did he actually, like, drug believe after the throw? Bro, he got his girl stolen by fucking Ben.
I mean, it is what it is.
And the pastor next name is Ben or Brian, my bad, Brian, excuse me.
Yeah.
Brian stole his girl.
Right.
Right.
Dude.
Dude.
I think the only guy building ICM now is,
I think his name is Profit from MetaDAO,
but just the token itself is kind of useless outside of the ICOs.
I think it's just Avicii.
I'm not a big believer in Umbra, to be honest.
And I think Avi Patel is still trying to like do his thing with icm but it just seemed like another flash in the pan man it's crazy how like
one narrative always uh surrounds one guy like you had um what was his name shaw be the face of the ai trade for crypto last year and then right when
he literally like the definition of crashing out um the trade was basically done at that point
i think that's the issue that crypto has is that anytime there's a narrative people love to focus uh
narrative people love to focus uh on one singular individual which at some point at some point that
that that'll be non-existent just not now though probably yeah i feel like there's um you know
although icm seemed to be a flash in the pan this year i think it sparked a much greater discussion
a much more important
discussion.
And I think that's why you see the sentiment that you see in the space right now.
Everyone is now asking themselves, what makes a token valuable?
Why should I buy any of these tokens, right?
Like on-chain traders have been, they've been rugged by, you know, meme after meme after
meme, you know, after everyone was kind of making fun of these
low float, high FDV projects that launch. They recognized those were worthless, so they pivoted
to memes. Now those are worthless, so they pivoted to ICM. But Ben Pasternak unfortunately left a
bad taste in the mouth of many people who pivoted to ICM.
And so now the question is, what do we buy?
What do we trade?
What do we get into?
And I think that's why there's been this lack of a narrative on chain and an unwillingness
to buy, number one, and two, an unwillingness to hold for longer than 30 minutes, an hour,
a day, a week, what have you. So we've seen hold times
kind of go down, down and down and down as time has gone on. But it has sparked this discussion
around tokens. What is their worth? What is their value? And I think in 2026, especially in January, when the crypto market structure bill gets to the president's desk, as some have alluded to, I think that will give us more clarity on what types of tokens we should buy, we should hold based on the protections and laws.
chain, you have these launch pads like a MetaDAO, but there are others like Street Foundation is
doing well. Soar Foundation is doing really well with their DRP structure, but it's a debt-based
tokenomic structure. But essentially what you want to see is something happen on the regulation side
to kind of clarify what we should be working
towards, which is coming here very soon. And then you have on chain, these launch pads that are
actually kind of codifying safeguards for and protections for, for holders. And that actually
comes with a, you know, a lot more beyond just, just safeguards and protections are giving you
actual ownership of the underlying business. They're giving you actual
ownership of the underlying business. They're giving, like MetaDAO, for example, is giving
you control of the company's treasury and IP, things of that nature. But you see several of
these launchpads doing different things. And I think it's a really important discussion for us
to have. It's time for the industry to grow up a little bit, right? Like we've been buying like these AI slop coins and meme coins for years now. But, you know, now that a lot of these larger
meme coins, like a Pepe, like a Doge, like a Whiff are, you know, look like they're not really
going to recover anytime soon. It just kind of helps everyone to wake up to the fact that, you know, a lot of these tokens are worthless. And even the
utility, quote unquote, utility tokens are, you know, many of them are actually proven to be
worthless as well. So very important discussion. I feel like we're going to cross the chasm.
We've all known that 98% of these tokens in crypto are absolutely worthless anyways.
And I think now is the time where we actually are.
We've said that for years, but now is a time where that actually is realized by the broader market.
And that's what we're seeing now.
So it's going to be really important, the next step that we take.
And I think it's going to be huge for the space, especially with what's happening on a larger, more macro scale.
So we're a new narrative with a bunch of liquidity as fuel to kind of push that forward.
So it's going to be amazing.
Just positioning for 2026 and conserving my energy and not trying to trade these choppy, directionless markets.
We had Tibber spark a small narrative, man.
That was a fun time too, man.
I think it hit almost 500 mil.
Speaking of AI slop, Pippin hit another all-time high today.
I thought that thing was going to be just cooked, dude.
Someone cornered 75% of the supply supply some entity cornered that much supply and that's
why that went up so much yeah it's it's it's it's kind of wild man um i i thought they were gonna
do that with zerebro uh when jeffy came up and just like started uh twe, man. Maybe they do some crime for some other AI coins, maybe.
David, what's up, man? How are you?
Happy New Year.
Excuse me.
This time of year, I think of my wonderful dad
and all the charitable things he did,
the low-income housing, the elderly housing.
He actually did a project that Harvard University was so envious of that a lot of people got
together and they bought out this low-income housing called Charlesview in Alston, Massachusetts,
right next to Harvard Stadium.
And then Mayor Menino and others, they came up,
and they made a billion-dollar low-income housing project.
So I think of all the lives that he touched,
and he passed away this time of year.
And my grandmother, that was 18 years ago,
and my grandmother was 15 years before that.
And when we went through her apartment after her time, we found thousands
of canceled checks to charities everywhere.
It's just so I try to do what I can to live up to their model.
I try to tell people what I think.
I try to tell people to please use both of their eyes, both of their ears, their spidey sense.
Don't be whale exit.
And I put up a couple of charts in the nest.
Some of them I put for my people, but I have silver volatility with respect to Bitcoin volatility. And you can see from the time of the rate cuts
starting last year,
silver volatility rose three times as much as Bitcoin.
And you can see silver went through that 50 right to 71.
So over 40%.
Bitcoin's down 40.
A lot of the equity in crypto is evaporating and it's becoming leveraged.
Because if you lose equity but you don't unwind voluntarily, you've got more leverage.
Whereas silver, it's just got rising volatility. It's inviting a lot of the people that were
traders of crypto moving along. And I wonder if people in the Bitcoin and alts and memes or whatever the ecosystem is,
might consider going to an area with rising volatility,
as opposed to only an area with deteriorating volatility.
Because we got back below 44 on Bitcoin volatility.
That goes back to October, before the big sell-off.
And when volatility is low, one of two things is going to happen.
Either Bitcoin's going up or it's going down.
But not neither.
When vol's at a minimum, you know, two sumo wrestles. One's moving the other.
You've got the VIX.
It's a new one-year low, below 14 in the 13s.
And there are targets at 12, and this is what I talked about in April 21 on my podcast.
Volatility suppression, there's too much money in the system.
It's looking for whether it's a dividend, a yield, a prepayment, capital appreciation, or shorting volatility.
So we're shorting volatility everywhere.
Sometimes it's going to come out as an ugly tale.
So we've got to watch what's going on, not just what used to work for us.
We don't want to be whale exits. We don't want to be
whale entrails. We have Bitcoin with 69,000 on 11, 10, 21. 11 plus 10 equals 21. Code reuse.
it was 69k. Bitcoin is up less than 1% real annualized in four years, and whales have dumped
hundreds of billions of coins on the world. And they kept it. What if you take out the low?
If you're a trader and you know about markets and hedge funds, nobody wants anyone knowing what their position is.
The 13 Ds were specifically created to force you to disclose things within a certain amount of time.
Michael Saylor's company Strategy advertises 650,000 coins.
A lot of people who are traders think those coins are coming loose.
That there's no way he can hang on to that.
That the market will punish that agglomeration.
There's very little equity left.
So, beyond the coins.
And if they can push the stock down, they'll force the CEO to sell coin to buy more stock as an appropriate decision.
So we've got the big dog, the Bitcoin.
Its volatility is melting.
That liquidity is going into other spaces.
The equity vol, the S&P, that's falling.
And the NASDAQ vol isn't falling as much.
And that is very important information.
Because if you have NASDAQ vol more buoyant than S&P vol, that's a very bearish sign, in my opinion.
Given that one number I'll leave you with before I'll step down.
If you go back to the dot-com era, we all know it was 139% S&P to GDP.
GDP was $10 trillion, $250 bill, times the 39% excess.
It's about $4 trillion of excess equity, and there was no recession as the S&P fell 50
and as the NASDAQ fell 83.6.
It was the 9-11 episode.
They shut down the planes.
We had a small contraction.
But there was no recession from all that equity because it wasn't debt that someone wasn't
get paid on. It was
just equity. $4 trillion excess GDP. Right now, between equity, which is $225, which is $67.5
trillion, which is $37.5 trillion plus crypto, you got $40 trillion, not $10 trillion of excess.
It wants to go somewhere.
If the market goes lower, which it looks like it wants to,
because you're seeing volatility suppression in the NASDAQ,
in the S&P more than the NASDAQ,
just try to watch where that money's going.
Don't decide where it's going to go
watch where it's going
and surf it
don't be big
but surf in the direction of where the money's going
don't be a hero
and don't only look in the rear view mirror
that's what I gotta say
Merry New Year
Happy Christmas
Merry Christmas
Happy New Year
It's great to hear from you brother I think Prometheus might have Merry New Year. Happy Christmas. Merry Christmas. Happy New Year.
It's great to hear from you, brother. I think Prometheus might have something to share. Prometheus, what's up?
Oh, David.
This is our Christmas.
Oh, David. Hey, guys. Hope all is well. David, I got a question for you.
You made a gracious statement about how you don't want to become whale excrement. What are you going to be looking for to see signs and get ahead of
the tides if things start, we should say, lifting back to the upside? What are kind of your signals
that you are going to be looking at or
that you kind of having your eyes on right now granted like dynamics change but yes i'd love to
hear your thoughts so you couldn't ask a better question because we're not tattooing a trend line
on our forehead and i even do the monday new york times crossword puzzle in pencil and that's the
easy one and anything
could happen policy could happen they could cut more than they say they could hike they could do
anything what i would need to see first of all it's going to be tough to sustain a bullish uh
dynamic in bitcoin if it doesn't close the year above $105K because it traded above last quarter's high, $115K, it was $126K this quarter.
And last quarter's low is $105K, and we're below that.
So that's a bearish engulfing candle.
That's kind of scary.
And a number that most people don't know is in February of 2009, for three months,
Bitcoin went up 800 basis points eight times from $1 to $8.
We only went up one hundredth of that in the quarter just completed.
So we've seen a collapse of volatility.
I'd like to see more volatility.
I'd like to see more people interested.
I'd like to see more volatility in Bitcoin than I'm seeing in silver.
I want to see Bitcoin not be the weakest volatility and the weakest price of all non-crypto assets in the world since October 6th.
The weakest. Not weak. The weakest.
Everything is doing better than Bitcoin outside of crypto.
When that stops, I think a lot of people cover their shorts.
But until it stops, who doesn't want to just sell every rally?
You can see the realized volatility is low because people bought on the way down
thinking they get a better bounce. And they're saying, I'm not getting the bounce I wanted.
I'm selling at a lower high.
Fair enough. You make fantastic points. Fantastic, fantastic points.
Yeah, I mean, to your point, it is very much so lackluster. It's kind of a depressing,
I mean, for most people listening to these spaces, right, that are, you know, crypto focused in
general, it is kind of a lackluster, we'll call it lackluster price action. I was expecting a
little bit more out of this week, personally, trader's perspective coming into this week, right?
We're seeing kind of localized bullish trend ever since the lows at 82.
We saw a lot of negative delta come in at 84, people trying to front run the BOJ, then
got taken out to the woodshed.
We saw a lot of passive bids absorb that selling
pressure. I was looking for a little bit more liquidity to be taken out of time.
Hey, Prometheus, that's one of your catchphrases, by the way,
taken out to the woodshed, not too far ahead in front of their skis and uh and yada yada yada yeah i mean it's it's just
kind of one of those things people sometimes and oftentimes do get taken out to the woodshed
whether they like it or not and uh they get taken out to the woodshed when they get in front of
their what in front of their skis brother um you know what it is. And yeah, I was just expecting a little bit more of a bounce
out of the markets and just kind of more a liquid slop price action we're seeing on,
especially on the lower timeframes. I mean, market makers are having their way
with everybody who was trying to be too aggressive on leverage, very thin order books,
very, very, very disgusting price action to trade. No trend at all.
I mean, we've been stuck between last week's Monday high and low, essentially, for the
better part of the last eight days.
It's just been an atrocious market, and most people would be better off stepping away from
the screens, especially over the holidays.
You're probably not going to see
fireworks leading into the end of the year would be my best bet dave had a fantastic point david
excuse me had a fantastic point that if you do thank you if you are lame brother thanks you
yeah i appreciate you um and if you are looking at this yearly candle it It is atrocious. It's so bad.
It's so bad.
We have, what, eight days before we see that the yearly candle close
would just be continued confirmation that...
No, it's worse than that.
It's worse than that.
You're looking at the quarterlies sequentially.
Oh, everything.
But if by
month but if by march 31 you don't close above 74 that's three years of selling pressure no i know
and it's all in synchronicity like and that's what a lot of people don't understand is
it's everything is kind of lining up together in a way uh exactly that's what it does you've got the overlapping time frames then you
throw in volatility implosion and then you say people are short the puts and they'll have to
dealt the hedge on the way down yep and there's no on the other side because when you get a fat
man or fat woman they can't run a marathon and I know because I walked the New York marathon this
year because I was too overweight for my ninth time.
I wasn't overweight for my ninth time,
but this time, my ninth time was overweight.
The thing is, I think everyone should be excited.
I think you got the wrong take.
Everyone should be excited that they're hearing
a different non-hodal, stacking, unidirectional narrative.
They have the opportunity to lift their heads up like a periscope and say, I see opportunities.
My capital can be rewarded.
I could go into higher volatility.
I could sell volatility when it's falling.
I could do so many things.
I'm not trapped in the thing that worked for years and i think that's an amazing
opportunity and exciting so what if you have to move on from one thing to another right you want
to make money right there are people who want to make an ecosystem but we want to make money
yeah and the thing is i mean there's in a way it is a breath of fresh air and it does allow people to expand beyond the complacency because a lot of people have been stuck in this asset class for a long time and been complacent.
It worked.
It was the best thing of all time for its time.
Yeah.
And now it's a real possibility.
Yeah.
It will be the worst of all assets for a long time.
It will be the worst of all assets for a long time.
And it will be a great source of funds and liquidity for $100 trillion worth of assets.
Do you think it's an institutional bear market?
Is that where your head is?
I think that the NASDAQ has real, real problems.
Because the narrative in the NASDAQ is it's different than the dot-com
because the companies are profitable.
And finally, they're affordable.
That's exactly what Stan Druckenmiller's video says.
He knew not to buy the last Toptic, which he said he bought and lost $3 billion.
He said the earnings, the multiples were going down.
I buy rising multiples.
Let the earnings catch up afterwards.
There's too much money.
I don't want to buy falling multiples.
The analysts don't know what they're talking about.
The companies don't know what they're talking about.
They're getting orders from Sam Altman's stories.
Those aren't orders. Those are RFPs.
Requests for proposals.
You think
Oracle's really going to build out what they say?
Come on.
How about CoreWeave's
CoreWeave's debt
is $1,000 off
or $800 off.
You're not going to be able to fund
any of this stuff.
And what happens when prices, when companies have trouble?
What are they going to do?
They're going to dump and price compete.
Right now, there's a shortage of compute.
The second you go to a surplus, you're going to have a crash in prices.
Those tokens are dropping 90, then they're going to drop another decimal.
Just like the dark fiber,
and they're saying it's different,
it is never different.
They all had subsidized capital
because Powell dragged Treasury prices down.
And now we had 8% nominal GDP
and we have a 3.5?
Two-year?
How does that make any sense?
There's a good way to make sense of it.
Because Trump stole all the growth from all over the world
and they don't notice it.
They're using false inflation data to justify stating
that they're not already in a depression.
Everywhere.
You have Japan, negative 2.3,
and they say, well, nominally we're up
because we have a little inflation.
It's all measurement error.
Housing is going down, energy is going down.
What would have happened this week if Trump didn't take three Venezuelan boats out of the Caribbean with 3 million barrels or 1.8 plus 1.6 and an empty tanker?
Oil would be already below 55.
Yields would already be much lower.
And this Nasdaq would have had a big dump, and Bitcoin
would have been below 85. But he added equity to the commodity trading advisors by pumping up oil,
only temporarily. So there's more equity in the system, so people levered up. It could have last.
They bought silver, they bought gold, because the CTAs, like, hey, let's buy our winners.
We're getting some relief on our loser, or oil.
Oil's 10 times gold, it's 100 times silver.
Let's get some shiny invitation.
Don't buy the hype.
Prometheus, how do you explain this in Fortnite terms?
How do you explain this in Fortnite terms?
I mean, I don't know, honestly, because I don't play Fortnite anymore.
Chill.
Do you know how to explain this in Fortnite terms?
Negative, brother.
Is Fortnite two weeks?
No, Fortnite.
No, it's a game, but it's a game but isn't it's a fortnight two weeks yes
let's talk about fortnight now man the game or the british word
i i think an interesting point that was brought up this discussion this far was
the complacency with a lot of the people that kind of, you know, learned.
They learned in the trenches in crypto.
They learned trading.
Started.
They started in crypto.
Right.
A good majority of the younger generation.
I mean, they're not they're not savvy when it comes to derivative markets.
They're not savvy when it comes to derivative markets.
They're not savvy when it comes to traditional markets, how to value a company, how to read balance sheets, yada, yada, yada.
And a lot of people are going to have a big, big, big wake up call coming out of this.
If they have to transfer out of this asset class, they're going to have a big, big wake up call.
And a lot of people are going to round trip a lot of wealth.
Unfortunately, it's just a lot of people are going to round trip a lot of wealth. Unfortunately,
it's just a matter of fact. Because there I mean, this it's it's an ever evolving,
it's an ever evolving, you know, eco or not ecosystem, it's ever evolving landscape. And
there has been a level of complacency from crypto traders for a long time that just have not had to
adapt outside of you know their their comfort zone i.e crypto markets um and if you've ever
traded crypto and you ever try to go trade equities it's a completely different game
um if you started in equities and you come over to crypto, it's a completely different game.
A lot of those TradFi bros wouldn't survive 24 hours in crypto.
Right.
And the same thing goes for crypto bros and TradFi.
Right.
It's the exact same thing.
But at the same time, it's going to push individuals in a very if they're able to accept challenges and they're able to accept,
you know,
putting in hard work and effort and time,
it's going to be very rewarding for those that are able to put in the due
diligence needed to be.
Cool. Can I step in?
Yeah, go ahead.
This is a very polite space.
This is a wonderful place.
I'm allowed to say my piece. I'm accepted more, so I don't feel
more attacked, so I don't feel I need to protect the people who come on the space to hear me.
Okay, so this is a wonderful learning environment. Do you have any idea how rare this is?
Have you any idea how rare this is?
I go to places, it's octagon.
One day it's octagon, the next day it's not.
The next day it's octagon.
They don't want to allow information that's factual to be presented.
And so you said something very important.
People who started in this a while ago,
volatility went from 600, reported in 21, it was 170.
It's almost 39.9, it's 43 and change right now.
You made money because you had good traders with decent technique, had a declining volatility base. So that's very forgiving.
Eventually, you could average down and clean your mess up. That's not the case when you go to
volatility minimums. You get blown out and you can't clean it up. So you have to be good.
So you have to be good.
So a falling volatility market mathematically accommodates capital to get some return, even with low skill technique.
Explain that, Dave, real quick.
Explain that for everybody from a structural point.
Okay.
If you take the daily realized volatility of Bitcoin, the way you calculate it is the number of days in a period, you take the square root.
So 365 square root is 19.1.
So a 1% move in Bitcoin would be a daily expected would be a 19.1.
38.2, 57.3.
This was 170.
154 is, 150 something, is an 8% daily move.
You go in, you buy something, you wake up, it's 5% to 8% more.
Because a daily move just means a random walk.
Okay?
A news item, a sentiment. But you could get Bitcoin to move 8% in a day,
16% in two days, 24% in three days.
So if you had a tight stop and you cleaned out a negative draw,
you were going to get a rebound of 24.
It was like shooting fish in a barrel.
Where are we now? We got to 3141, which is less
than 2%, on August 2nd of 2023. And what happened was Powell flips to an easing bias.
Bitcoin goes up 400%, and it drags volatility up 186% to 9271,
accommodating a 5% daily move.
So in almost no time because of Powell,
you again could reset to a 5% daily move.
That's 15% in three days.
We're not going back up to 175.
We're not going back up to 9271. We're at 43 and change. We're going to be taking $175. We're not going back up to $9271.
We're at $43 and change.
We're going to be taking out, in my opinion, I don't see any way we can't,
the $31 of 2023, the $32 of September 18th, 2025,
which preceded, if you're watching volatility,
you would have seen 18 days before the peak of
Bitcoin, 21 days before the Bitcoin crash. The higher the vol, the more you expect to make over
three days. The lower the vol, the less you're making, and the more risk that you have an
expanding volatility, and you get run over. And that's the 40% drawdown. Because volatility was too low,
nobody had enough money, and then you had the dealers delta hedging, which means if they're
short an option or short the position, short gamma, that means as it goes down, they get longer.
As it goes up, they get shorter. They have to cover in a rally. They have to sell in a decline.
As it goes up, they get shorter.
They have to cover in a rally.
They have to sell in a decline.
And this is what is different.
We're at such a low level, under 2% at 38.
We're above that, but 38-2.
You make 6% on a three-day swing.
So what you end up happening is, let's say you get an event, a liquidation,
a story of a sailor's sale.
You'll take the market down 25%. You're only making 2% a day.
So the lower the vol, the less you're making when an event happens.
It does what we did on October 9th, 10th.
It wipes away millions of accounts.
It's a massive deleveraging.
There's not enough equity.
And it gets worse and worse.
And that's why a lot of people will say, you know,
why don't you at least diversify the asset classes that you're trading in?
Don't think that by being laser focused, you know,
it helps when you have high volatility and asymmetric,
where you go from A to C. We're now at like 2.2.
We were below two on two dates. And if you take that out, you don't want to take that out.
Because people will be making money shorting volatility, but they'll move the tape,
and then you get that move below 75, and that's when sailor's paper comes to town
and they're not going to let go of that
that's something that
have you seen the photo of a sailor on a life raft
with a ship on fire
I have not but I'd love to hear about it
well basically
there's a
I think it's a ship with the Bitcoin logo
and it's basically going down
with the Titanic
and it's all on fire
and he's escaping on an orange life raft
you know the saying
a good captain goes down with its ship
that can't be said of him is that what you're saying
say that again that't be said of him? Is that what you're saying?
Say that again?
That cannot be said about him.
I would assume so, yeah.
So can I put up the New York Times article
about him from
March 10th of 2000?
Yeah.
I'm setting it up.
I think strategy was like the March 10th of 2000. Yeah. I'm setting it up.
I think strategy was like the...
It was an incubator back then.
It was an incubator.
He got sued for the largest lawsuit
for a publicly traded company
ever.
Maybe the chickens
come home to roost at some point for him.
One thing that crypto never likes, at least from what we've seen over the last 10 plus years,
is a singular point of entity having a lot of...
Concentration?
Yeah, a lot of social and market dominance.
dominance like that's the whole point yeah decentralization people forget but coinbase
That's the whole point of decentralization.
used to have such a large monopoly over the all coin space but like that's not the case anymore
um that's not really the case anymore uh ftx had a monopoly of course that's not the case anymore
um and i think the last elephant, she just got out of jail.
Oh, Allison? Caroline? Yeah, but not
related to
the Minnesota
Attorney General or
the Paramount, an Oracle
crew.
And I think the last elephant
in the room is probably Binance. probably CZ, to be honest.
I think they got it. I think they got to take them out. I think they got to take them out.
I think the next president's probably going to be a Democrat. And I doubt that.
You don't think so? I'm a Democrat. No. Because I think that mortgage rates will be under 4% by the election.
Inflation will be zero or negative.
Oil gasoline price will be two bucks.
And even beef will be affordable.
I understand.
It's only econometric. It's not policy or anything.
It's only econometric.
It's not policy or anything.
Yeah. I think sometimes people forget this little tidbit. I think I lean more towards libertarian, but markets...
I guarantee that. You are a libertarian.
Markets over the last 50, 60 years have done a lot better under a democratic regime.
This is politics aside.
If you just want to pinpoint a graph,
a chart, excuse me,
with political regimes over the last few decades,
they do a lot better.
That is the most misleading data point.
And I love...
Yeah, because Bill Clinton was a disaster for his first two years.
And he got, do you know what the stock market did under him?
It was insane.
It went up hundreds and hundreds of percent.
That's what I mean.
You call him a Democrat?
He stopped being a Democrat in 1994.
First, he had the sister soldier moment.
Then he started executing 17-year-olds on death row.
Okay.
He made a deal with Newt Gingrich.
It was, you know.
So my point is, you're generally right that, yes, if you do the math,
but was the policies
that caused the greatest bull market
ever under Clinton?
You know, and
what happened? He took the NASDAQ
up so much, and who took over?
George Bush, and it went down
83.6.
So, the question is...
That must have been terrible.
No, what happened was we had the Asian
de-pegging on July 7th,
excuse me, July 2nd, 1997,
where Thailand de-pegged,
then Indonesia,
which we're about to give up that low.
Any month now, we're going to have a new all-time low
in the Indonesian rupee.
And then Korea de-pegged.
Then they printed money.
It didn't affect our markets, but it hurt Europe
because they had all those losses from the loans they made over there.
And then we had long-term capital management a year and 15 days later,
and they cut rates to bail them out.
Then we had the Y2K pump,
where they just punch-bolted, and he got 300% of the NASDAQ to distract everyone from Y2K.
Then Greenspan said, okay, we've survived Y2K. He started hiking on February 2nd,
hiking on February 2nd, 25 to 575, 25 to 6 on March 16th. Then he did another 50 on March 6th.
Then May 16th, it was March 16th, to 650. And he let the curve invert 134 basis points,
invert 134 basis points and let the NASDAQ fall 57% under George Bush, he gets credit for the
entire NASDAQ deflation, which was caused by Y2K, the punch bowl. They wouldn't have kept rates so
light, but they were worried about Y2K. Not that the computers would go bad, but that people would be nervous,
they'd pull money out of the banks,
and we'd have a global run on banks.
So you're totally right, the math,
but was it one thing, the Y2K innovation,
and then the unwinding of it under,
so the liftoff was Clinton,
was Clinton, and Bush gets all the blame.
and Bush gets all the blame.
He fell five-sixths in 130 weeks.
You don't clean that up.
The point I'm just making is,
if we get this AI deflation,
which I don't see any way we don't,
you're going to see what happened in the dot-com era.
We had the greatest housing market of all time.
And you had no recession.
Because the equity is deflating, who cares?
It's not debt.
And we have the independent mortgage brokers
that are going to give the loans
to working class people.
We don't have 6% unemployment.
We have 4.6%.
And with all that spending and lower rates,
AI, AI, there are three people working in every AI factory.
When we get lower rates, you build these houses,
you're going to have every Home Depot, every diner,
every parking lot filled.
Plus, the rate of deportations is going down.
Do you know they just increased...
I'm sorry.
I was going to say, personally, I love going into Home Depot and just
observing the sites and just
witnessing how great this country
is. Home Depot,
definitely not Walmart.
I have not stepped foot
inside a Walmart in
probably almost five years now.
And that was to get a Dragon Ball Z shirt.
I would probably go dumpster diving rather than ever go inside a Walmart.
That is like a living boondocks episode, to be honest, at any moment in time.
No, I'm sorry.
I actually had an event where I went into a Walmart around this time last year.
But besides that, it's been multiple, multiple years.
It's kind of like the Waffle House of stores to buy some goods.
If anyone has ever been to a Waffle House at weird hours at night,
same with the Denny's, you'll know exactly what I mean.
It's like the movie The Equalizer.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Or like the 1980s movie Cobra.
Yeah.
And I kind of hear White Snakes is this love in the background.
The intro, that's like the kind of vibe.
Prometheus, you know exactly what I'm talking about, right?
Aviator glasses, black biker jacket, and some aviator shades.
That's neon lights.
Maybe a Camaro or a Corvette.
That's my aesthetic.
You know about that, don't you, Prometheus?
Yeah, we know about it.
About it.
Dude, you know,
imagine Tucker riding in a Harley Davidson
with aviator glasses,
pulling up to a Waffle House and a SIG, wearing a biker jacket.
My goodness, man.
Anyways, not to glaze him too much.
Matt, what are your thoughts, man, on the market?
I want to hear from Matt for a bit.
Matt, how are you, man? You've been up here for a while hey what's going on guys uh happy holidays merry christmas
yeah um i think that everyone should probably take a cold glass of water and not get too focused on the price action over this over the next over this
week and next week this is holiday price action um people are going to overreact to different moves
but come on you know you know deep down that trad fi is already on vacation and they've left
instructions for their unpaid
interns that like look gets to this price automatically sell gets to that price automatically
buy keep our positions in a range don't blow this up same thing they do over thanksgiving week same
thing they do over uh august uh summer vacay like don't don't screw yourself up or make some big proclamation
over Christmas and New Year's holidays. Especially with, and this is still my thesis,
the first week we get back, January 7th and January 9th is the major jobs week.
January 9th is the major jobs week. And for a lot of different reasons, last jobs data was,
you know, a partial or I don't want to say problematic, but it was a little
asterisked by the shutdown. So first week of January, as soon as we get back,
it's going to absolutely move markets one way or the other.
Everyone's going to pay attention to that, and it will have a massive effect.
Everything that you thought was so important, that we thought was so important over Christmas week and New Year's,
will be quickly forgotten and on the back burner.
So, yeah, it's interesting little news tidbits here and there, but the major price action is coming as soon as we're in early 2026.
And I'm, you know, I'm still leaning bearish.
I don't see any reason to start deploying new money.
I see no reason to get to, you know, it's been a hell of a year. Hell,
it's been a hell of a three years. And I've de-risked everything, taking profits all over
the place. And I see no reason to deploy new cash or to close out my successful puts and shorts.
I'm basically, look, you never sell your Bitcoin.
You never sell your Bitcoin.
But I'm definitely still holding my puts and shorts on ETH,
on a bunch of these Bitcoin and AI miners,
and the other third in cash.
And I want to see, what I'm looking for is,
I want to see unemployment stop rising.
It's real simple, you know.
We were touching on it earlier but come on we've seen it go in less than a year from under four percent to four percent to 4.3
percent to now 4.6 percent we're probably going to close this year january uh 7th and 9th adp
perfect payrolls and then uh bls's non-farm payrolls but long story short we're
probably going to close 2025 with 4.7 percent unemployment and still rising so what why does
that matter well it matters because eventually where's the end point? Is it five? Is it five and a half? Is it six?
Eventually, what we're talking about is fewer customers buying fewer goods and services
and rationalizing lower earnings for these companies month after month, quarter after quarter. It doesn't make any sense to keep bidding up,
you know, Amazon, Meta, Apple, Tesla
at these valuations if, wait a minute,
they sold fewer iPhones last quarter,
fewer iPhones this quarter,
and you're telling me unemployment kept rising
and you're telling me the jobs market stopped growing?
Like at a certain point, you realize, wait, paying 35, 45, 50 PE companies makes not a lot of sense.
Especially when we were buying Apple at 18 PE in 2022.
We were buying Google at sub-20 PE not two
years ago. How about
10 PE in the 90s?
Right.
You're completely right about the
statement that these companies are ridiculously
valued. People ignore the fact
that $5 trillion is not
$500 billion.
And this is the exact
reason why
I think big
money will justify
let's take it all down a notch.
Let's quietly stop buying
government bonds at 5%
guaranteed
zero risk and if you get
a recession they'll make 30% total return
as they do QE again.
So your competition all over the world with the
Japanese 370, a US 580,
a 480, it's a lot of competition. When
bonds are 1%, it helps. People will
short them. But that looks like that's over.
My simple thesis is I think we're, look, we know from Bitcoin, we know in crypto that
major corrections, even capitulations are annual events. You can set your watch to it.
Everyone remembers the big one in 2025 earlier this year. I know you were around for the 2024
win over the summer. 2023 was no different.
2022, that was just the year from hell. Like you go on and on and on. Every year has a major
correction and or capitulation. Hell, might even be a bear market. So I just feel like we're due.
We are absolutely due. Yeah, but that's why you're successful successful because you look out of both your eyes you you can't say that
on most spaces are you kidding me they hear you and they'll take your mic off that's i mean that's
fine that's what makes markets right that's why no that's not what makes markets that makes
corruption this space makes markets they let both sides speak other places don't and that is friction
and that's opportunity and i'm honestly surprised that like yeah anyone showed up for today's show
because usually like christmas week is super super super super uh low engagement on these streams. But sell-offs, Wabi, you know that sell-offs are high engagement.
Yeah.
And look what Bitcoin's been doing and look what crypto's been doing.
So, like, I think it's as simple as this.
Either Bitcoin and crypto and look at others.
Oh, my God.
Look at, you know, Total 3.
Ugh.
You know?
Either Bitcoin and crypto has completely decoupled from broader markets
and totally lost the plot, and they're just on their own price action,
and there's no correlation to real life.
Or Bitcoin and crypto have been telling you since the fall
that there's major problems and not to ignore it.
And everyone's just like, oh, well, you know.
I kind of think that we're doing the same thing now that we did from March of last year to August.
Something like that.
Maybe a bit expedited.
If you look at the way we made that high at like 125, 126 in perspective to the inauguration
high, it's almost the same exact thing compared to 74 to 69K.
Even though we were making marginal all-time margins in May and in July and August, I'm
still comparing it to that regime.
And, I mean, Basant even went on to say,
hey, like, just taper your expectations, right?
And the altcoin market,
the altcoin market is definitely in a bear market.
And, like, I really don't think I've ever encountered...
But that's why, Wabi, to follow on that point i have a real
simple thesis for bitcoin and crypto and why it's been already feeling like a bear market
uh i i think it's in a bear market other people disagree well it's not 40 percent
right okay all right so okay i think we okay it sounds like us up here we agree it's a bear market. But I think that's exactly why you can't forget the gigabulls hand-waving away a stagnant jobs market.
It might have even have slipped into negative growth.
We'll see.
But this rising unemployment, I think that's why you can't hand-wave it away.
Because let's face it, the only reason Bitcoin goes up, the only reason crypto goes up, especially the smaller altcoins, the only reason it goes up is more buyers tomorrow than you had today.
That's the whole thing.
That's it.
Saylor already exists.
His buy pressure, whether you think it makes a difference or not, is consistent.
It's a constant.
It's not – it doesn't –
Except this week he didn't buy anything.
Okay, except this week. But we can't say – But there's a constant. Except this week he didn't buy anything. Okay, except
this week, but we can't say
There's nobody else.
Right, and that's
the problem, and that's the point.
Either everyone else, what?
Can I amplify your message with some math?
After the September 18th,
2024 cut,
92 days,
we had three cuts, 50 minus 25 minus 25.
And over just under four months, the mortgage rate went up 115.
The tenure went up 129.
We're almost that same time frame since our September 17th cut. We were up two basis points on the mortgage,
not 115.
Nobody's making money shorting treasuries
and using that money to buy Bitcoin.
And the problem is,
go take a look at October 29 on the NDX
divided by the S&P
and go look at December 10th, lower highs. So the NASDAQ outperformance of the S&P. And go look at December 10th, lower highs.
So the NASDAQ outperformance of the S&P, which peaked on July 9th of 2024.
We're at the same level.
There's no expansion of risk.
And what's happening is the dealers are drowning in all this volatility that people are buying.
And if the market goes down, they'll sell it down.
If the market goes up, they'll buy it.
I had a really simple thesis in 2021 into 2022.
You know, when everyone was just beside themselves, you remember, Wabi, that 2022 was just an awful bear market and everyone
wanted to know when's the bottom you know it was terrible if you were in bonds it was terrible if
you were in equities it was terrible it was terrible if you were in right right ft the fdx
capitulation and it was terrible if you were in bitcoin crypto but my simple thesis in 2022 when i
when i felt like we need to start buying and just turn the price off and just start buying steadily,
it's when we saw inflation and when we saw CPI stop rising.
The end.
When we saw inflation stop it, call it 8.5% or 9% and and no higher and then start to go down that's
more or less when everything bottomed yeah everything there were two other things that
happened but hold on but let me let me lay in the plane let me let me just finish don't let everyone
speak i think that's the exact same thing this time just swap out cpi inflation and add in
unemployment look bitcoin and crypto figured it out first, just like in 2021.
Bitcoin and crypto sold off hard post-November 2021, and the broader markets figured it out
in January, and down they came too. Watch it happen exactly the same way, except to swap out
CPI inflation and put in unemployment. So to land this, that's why I think this first week of January
is so important,
this jobs week, because if it confirms the trend that we've already been staring at for six months,
watch all the equities in the MAG7 and broader markets come crashing down quick,
and everyone will wonder why the hell we believed any of the price action over the holidays as they stare at like massive red weekly candles man um geez i uh
i think as far as like looking for upside i think um the good thing about a trump regime is that any
downside that happens happens really quickly and the pump that follows is absolutely insane
that's the good thing about like i guess
his volatility right and we were dubiously speculating um back in march that hey i think
uh perhaps similar price action at least in equities was uh from september of 2018 all the
way to uh early december of 2018 where that bear market barely lasted like nine weeks
if that 225 percent of GDP not 90 with three times is overpriced yeah I I maybe maybe maybe
that links are people maybe that we're in People are trying to tell you that a 30PE Mag 7 is a deal.
You know, come on.
A 10PE is a deal.
Money's not real, man.
Money's not real.
Can I highlight two other things?
Go ahead.
About the sell-off in 2022.
My first tweet was on January 3, 2022.
Max, short, calm, tech, all that stuff.
No staples, just right smokestack.
We were going at 13.8% nominal GDP.
The Fed was going to be raising rates a ton,
even though they said transitory,
and even though they said they're only raising a quarter percent,
everyone could see commodities flying.
Okay.
So that was the short.
You didn't need anything else.
If you watch crypto, that would have been enough.
Right?
You got 69 on November 10th.
That was its peak.
If all you did is watch crypto, all you were just a little early.
Okay.
Why did it end?
Because Citibank fell below four fell below 4% of its assets.
The market cap of Citigroup stock, 3 or low, less than 4% of its total assets.
Citibank would have evaporated if they wouldn't have slowed the rate of hikes.
And that was going to slow this dollar surge where they took the dollar from 90 something up to 114.
So no tech company was making any money.
And then, you know, it was negative growth.
And then it ended.
But you had a confluence of Bitcoin screaming at you.
We got no liquidity.
We're going down.
So that was number one that you pointed out.
Number two, you had inflation and then the rates. We got no liquidity. We're going down. So that was number one that you pointed out.
Number two, you had inflation and then the rates.
And so the money went to the nominal GDP companies like, so buy me, hashtag so buy me, silver, oil, mining, industrials, metals, European.
So it was beautiful.
But they had to slow it down because they were going to blow up Citibank.
Yeah. Yeah.
Yeah.
And it was basically like, okay, the bottom's not in until the Fed stops hiking rates and hurting the economy.
And you're right.
That wasn't true.
They just had to slow the rate of hikes from 75.
You're right.
Slow the rate of hikes.
To signaling they're only going to do 50.
That was it.
Showing their pivoting.
Right.
Showing their pivoting. It. Showing their pivoting.
It's a right-hand turn.
It's an orthogonal shift.
But it was really, going back,
it was really as soon as we,
and it was over the summer of 2022,
as soon as we saw a couple
months of, wait,
CPI inflation stopped rising.
Boom. Buy everything. Bottoms in.
Like, I mean, you know,
scared money don't make money,
but that was the thing.
There was a clear...
Time to step back in.
There was a clinical thing
that happened, though.
They released the February 21 minutes,
excuse me,
the September 21, 2022 minutes
were released on October 12th of 2002.
Three hours later, the market bottomed.
Three hours after the minute,
because in the minute they said,
and everyone should go on the Federal Reserve website and read,
they said market participants thought
we may raise as much as 100 basis points.
They were wrong.
Right, man.
Yeah, it was 50 instead of 70.
What's up, buddy?
Isn't that statement that you made scared money, don't make no money?
Isn't that the phrase of WGMI?
Dude, that ticker is so, that ticker is so, like.
That's one of my best shorts.
WGMI.
That was one of my best puts.
WGMI.
You know what's crazy, man?
Yeah, it's a basket.
It's a basket of, it's a basket of all the Bitcoin miners
turned AI miners.
I mean,
it was the number one.
Just like MicroStrategy was the number one stock
in 2024, this was the number one
ETF in 2025.
Come on.
That's the short.
The best puts often become
the best calls.
Look at NVIDIA in 2022,
Meta in 2022.
Dude, Meta outperformed.
But you have to go away for a year.
You have to go away for a year.
And that includes microstrategy.
That includes Bitcoin.
You know what's crazy?
You got to go away for a year.
The math that you just said is
when volatility is high,
you can't make money buying it.
Yeah.
So you had to wait for the vol
to drop. Unless it's a
complete direction
change. Like if it was volatility high
going up. You want the
vol to settle down
so you could buy it more cheaply.
And then you could get the long
dated stuff and
get a shot. 2022
did offer some long ups. I think you i think you had oil
the first half of 2022 then silver oil metals and then you had the industrial stuff yeah and
then how do you lose money these had 13 gdp the the summer rally also from 2022 was also quite good.
Rags, you've had your hand up for a while.
I'm going to pass it over to you.
Thanks.
I didn't know what you were going to actually call on me, so I'll try and go back and get my notes.
It's been a while.
Yeah, I don't know.
The conversation kind of changed so much from the beginning I had
so much comments for the beginning I didn't want to interrupt because I loved uh listening to the
discussion it's great um I I just personally don't agree but it's like I agree and disagree
I really don't think the bull is over and I think we're going to see highs in 2026.
I still think we're going to get an alt run.
And the reason I believe this is because of, you know, QT just ended and I've been looking
at like the business cycle, the typical business cycle, and it seems like we never went up.
And also, I think a lot of people forget that that cycle was extended because
of the pandemic after last bull run. I think that's why this bull run kind of dragged out,
obviously, with the combination of policies and everything else. So it's just, I don't know,
it's just so interesting to hear. I think in the short term, definitely like, you know, Bitcoin could go down quite a bit.
But I do think that we're going to have some liquidity injections hit in 2026.
And that's going to stimulate the market.
So it's interesting to hear people saying they're shorting, they're selling, they're like risk off.
I'm buying right now.
I'm DCA.
Oh, don't get me twisted.
Bin short.
No, I'm with you.
I'm with you.
I'm DCA for my life.
You're staring me.
Yeah, but year over year from right now, I agree with you.
There is a really good chance that Bitcoin is higher than today's price year over year from now.
chance that Bitcoin is higher than today's price year over year from now. My worry though, my fear
is Bitcoin goes and tags 60k in spring to 2026 before it gets back above 90k, say fall or winter.
Oh, could. Yeah. It's not happening. I mean, it could definitely go to 60s. i think more likely like 70s but i i really think we're gonna get this surprise
run in 2026 and it will be altcoin utility focused and then that is the absolute top of
the cycle and then you're gonna hear people you know they're gonna spew that gold narrative that
oh well gold went on a permanent bull run for 10 years. And that's kind of how crypto is now.
You're going to start hearing, when you start hearing that, I'm telling you, in 2026, that's
the top.
That's what they're going to say to be like, oh, yeah, it's going to continue.
I mean, right.
Well, hell, even right now, gold has not been this overbought since the 80s, since 1980.
Right now, gold has not been this overbought on the monthly chart since 1980 right now gold has not been this overbought on on the monthly chart since
1980 silver has not been this overbought since right before the great financial crisis uh excuse
me uh that was slightly after the great financial crisis in 2011 so i mean yeah they've been hell
of a trades if you were in earlier but like you take one look at silver and one look at gold on a five-year or
ten-year or multi like that you can't get if you get any more parabolic if it was if it got any
more parabolic it'd be doing loop-de-loops man i'll be the first one to tell you man crypto just
like kind of sucks right now the ceilings are some of these coins they suck suck. We haven't had a single 100 mil runner in a minute.
And I'm sorry.
That's because that's memes.
But that's because you've got to be in a meme rally.
And then you'll have 10 things going to 100 million a day.
We haven't had a meme rally since Trump dropped his token in January. That was the very,
very last one.
But it's the whole space, though.
I mean, just look at others
or total three. You can just see
the total amount
of money. The total amount
of money is at a multi-year low.
You know? It's not just like
individual this ticker or that ticker.
You're absolutely
right wabi the total amount of money was going up like two percent every other session while
on chain was going crazy like you need stratify to be absolutely nuts and bro like i check the
chain every single day and whether it's on base,
whether it's on soul.
Yeah,
there's opportunity,
but like the ceiling is just so low,
dude.
It's like trying to pick up nickels.
Is it ghost town or people just take profits like instantly?
It's like everyone is checked out right now,
bro.
It's like you're trying,
it's like you're trying to pick up food and you're used to like having the
food delivered to you or
cooked in front of you at a michelin restaurant and now you're going out going into dumpster fires
trying to get like half-eaten mcchickens that have been there for like three days
and saying that hey it's pretty good out there, when in reality, you're probably going to get food poisoning, bro.
Have you ever seen a 10-year below GDP?
I don't even know what that means, brother.
The yield on the 10-year is below GDP.
I don't even know what that means.
Wait, nominal?
The actual yield is 4.165,
and GDP printed today 4.34.
Yeah, there was a big caveat with today's…
Yes, healthcare.
They always got a caveat.
There's something else.
Hey, Afro, how are you doing?
I think the annualized GDP is 3.2.
Am I right with that?
I'm saying for the current quarter.
And we know there are big tax cuts.
Well, that's the past quarter.
That's the third quarter, yes.
Right, but so as late as September 30th,
that was our GDP.
Like I'm taking a big grain of salt
with information like that.
Okay, great.
It was good times back in September.
I don't feel that right now.
Aphra, how are you doing, man?
Yeah, but also you have to keep in mind,
a lot of the dudes who did the TA
who thought we were going to get like this bullish Q4,
I think originally they weren't wrong.
I really think the government shutdown screwed everything up it was the longest
shutdown in history lasted bingo it just killed the whole q4 it remember the first week of october
it was like october is bullish bullish bullish the government shutdown yep longest time in history
took out october took out november and now here we are but the good note the good news is the
couple last time that happened was during, you know, crypto bull run.
And about 60 days, if you go back and look, it's about 60 days, two months after each shutdown, the markets went bull again.
So that would confirm us going up again in Q1 or early next year because now all the money and capital is freed up.
So I don't think like a lot of the TA guys on Twitter are taking heat.
They're like, you were wrong, you were wrong.
It's like, but they can't anticipate that the government was going to shut down for
the longest period in history.
You know what I mean?
Like, otherwise, I think we would have got a very bullish Q4.
Well, Q4 is running at 3% right now, reported today, on Atlanta Fed, with the shutdown.
And they're pouring a lot of that growth into the next quarter, which is going to be 4% in the first quarter.
The problem is...
But the problem with that is, David, you will remember, I'm sure you do, what was GDP right before the bottom fell out in 2008?
Excuse me.
What was GDP right before the bottom fell out in 2008?
You don't even want to know.
We had 5.6% inflation.
And these clowns wanted a high grades.
If you read their their actual transcript and we
lost 7.7 percent of inflation in the next 13 months and these clowns wanted to hike yeah gdp
was over three percent as late as summer 2008 no but there was 8.6 nominal yeah i know 5.6 but it's worse than just three right but everyone yeah i i hear that but
like everyone everyone automatically takes out the inflation number and just talks about real so just
make sure we're not confusing ourselves but i'm saying there's so much revenue in an 8.6 nominal
and the system blew up yeah but but that's point. It's all, to use a cliche, transitory.
It's all short-term.
It's all, if everything stays exactly as is,
then yes, GDP will be 3% or 4%
until it's not.
And there's no, it's not predictive.
It's the definition of looking in the rearview mirror.
And I think what's a better gauge of how we're doing is, quite frankly, month after month after month, we're watching unemployment rise.
And then we've also been seeing month after month after month, the jobs gains decrease.
You have to remember, Obama really helped with support.
You have to remember, Obama really helped with support.
So we now have a lot of support coming during periods of unemployment.
The economy doesn't take a big hit anymore.
It's a lot of transfer payments, enormous, that come out during slowdowns.
Sure, if...
Okay, sorry.
That's a cool, he put his hand up.
Nah, sorry, just real quick i i just
quick question so what do you what do you guys think uh because i think it would be very very
productive to you know give people advice in space right i like 380 people listening right now and
these people are freaking out prices are dead they expected to bull run by end of Q4, but what advice do you guys have
for the average
Twitter person? They got to put on some
vibes cartel, bro, and trade.
That's what they got to do.
I'm here.
I've been here for a while. I'm not going
anywhere, but a lot of people have
left crypto right now, but the ones that are still here,
they're about to leave. What advice
do you have for them right now to get them through this dark times man what do you what do you guys don't trade
i'll tell them don't trade well yeah cash hey cash is a position too you know but i'll tell
i'll say i'll tell them what i'm doing uh look i'm not i can't predict the future i i can't divine
exactly what's going to be reported that first week of January.
I'm just willing to let the data dictate.
And if you listen to the talking heads, if you look at expectations, they're trying to
tell you that ADP private payrolls and the Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report, they're
trying to tell you they're going to come in bullish.
They're going to come in bullish. They're going to come in strong. The expectations is that October, November was a lot of fuzzy data and poor data to the downside because of the government shutdown.
But that was temporary.
That's transitory.
And we should see a strong December.
But I'm calling – I don't think so.
This is a massive economy.
And you can't just spin this massive oil tanker around on a dime.
It takes a lot of inertia and momentum to have unemployment go from 200,000 and 150,000 and 175,000 plus jobs gains in early 2025 to no growth.
Those weren't real numbers.
Negative growth.
Well, they're certainly not.
I mean, how real is it now?
So that's my point.
No, no, they're bad now, but they were bad before.
Right.
Okay.
Well, so I'm just saying I'm going to let the data dictate and see what this first week January says.
And it's real simple.
And it's real simple.
Good news will be good news.
Good news will be good news.
Bad news will be bad news.
You know, the people on here that are saying, take it down, take it slow, the markets are acting X, Y, Z.
You yourself just said the market isn't acting like the base case for people.
That requires you redo your model.
And you always want to redo your model as small as you possibly can
while still feeling it.
Right?
You don't have to be big.
You've got to be small because the model's not working.
If you thought the market was due for a lift,
which a lot of people did because it was standard,
don't you have to be much smaller in size?
Just a training size?
My two cents for the guy said the advice for the normies or whatever.
Honestly, you're getting an opportunity.
You didn't get last bull run which is we didn't
get the altcoin season around the same time bitcoin hit its all-time high you can literally
get some altcoins cheaper than you could in 2022 2023 so that's what i'm researching studying
because you know it's times like this even if we haven't completely bottomed yet it's times like
this where everyone always scratches their head and wonders how these you know altcoin bros hit
like these 20 50 x's on altcoins specifically because they're more liquid like the time this
is it this is when you should be looking at different altcoins and researching them. I think the thing for people to keep in mind is that you have to remember, like, the narratives also change for altcoins, similar to meme coins,
which is like really funny. There's always a new emerging narrative where like all the capital
flows. So the altcoins you picked in 2021 may not be the big winners and probably won't be for 2026.
So, you know, I'm somebody who really researches to make sure like, you know, if it's a topple at a discount that's being utilized and there's still, you know, a good narrative there to like, you know, to to grab capital next year.
So that's what I've been doing personally i've
just been researching all the altcoins now especially in the top 200 and trying to scoop
them you know and dca them here at some of their lows some some of them are cheaper than 2023 2022
because i think that's where the opportunity is going to be for alts.
Otherwise, you end up chasing what happened in 2021 where you had all these new deployments of all these layer ones
and all kinds of things, and you're running around chasing the altcoin
after it's already pumped and after you're out 500%, 1,000%.
So this is like, I think we have a unique opportunity here because it's an
extended cycle that we did not get last bull run so that's personally what i'm doing like as far
as meme coins like they're super risky everybody knows but the winners are in it's like if you look
at the top 20 meme coins that are still standing that are over a hundred mil market cap that lasted the
whole born those are the those are your winners it's it it's good you know there'll be new things
deployed if the market rallies next year but if you're looking for like you know the safer side
of meme coins though i don't know even know if there's a safer side they already told you what
they were it's like cheating on a test the whole market has been shit and if you look at the top 20 memes the ones that still that are still left standing
that were deployed in 2024 those are like clearly your winners and clearly have a foundation in my
eye so like those are the tips that i would give to to you know normal normies is just like to to
start researching the alts because i think like this is
the opportunity so that's my opinion i would i would not be doing that and the reason for that
is that most people don't have a lot of money to put into crypto to begin with so unless you have
you know a plan where you're gonna and if you do I'll put like more power to you
Right if you got size and cool
But I can I can guarantee that a lot of people listening here in general don't have size and I'm not gonna say that
I I got size in my bags either because my size and size compared to anybody
Anybody else i'm sure
but you can't just keep
DCA-ing into things. And this market is still
going to keep, if it's going to keep going down, I mean, you're just going to keep buying lower and
lower until it finally bottoms out. And if you want to do that, that's fine. But it's honestly
better to buy into strength and be in a cash position. I can tell you the reason that I say
this is because I've experienced it before,
right? I'm sure everyone here has to, you know, you want to keep buying a dip, but when the dip
keeps dipping, you get exhausted, right? And the thing is, is that people don't really have a plan.
You don't have a plan to position and size accordingly. So if you're going to be finding
a dip, you know, granted, if Bitcoin dipped 50% tomorrow, yeah, I'd buy the hell out of it,
Granted, if Bitcoin dipped 50% tomorrow, yeah, I'd buy the hell out of it, 100%.
But, you know, it's dipped 40% since all-time highs, right?
So you could have been buying dips, you know, when we got the 1010 crash.
Or, you know, if you bought that, you know, it's not a horrible place to buy, you know, all things considered in the long run, right?
Depending on your time timeframe and your mindset
But if you're gonna be, you know, a lot of people especially in this, you know, they say they're in it for a long time
Are you really in it for long term?
Are you are you gonna be in it or is there gonna be some kind of family emergency or some some life situation that happens?
Where you got to pull crypto out you got, you know, a lot of people here, you know
in their um mid to late 20s and going into the 30s and you know by the time the next bull run comes in you're in an entirely different life situation maybe you're getting married maybe
you're having kids maybe you have to have a life-altering surgery hopefully not um or maybe
they find something you need to have a surgery to save your life you know are like you need to you
need to be positioning yourself accordingly for all these things.
You can't just keep, you know, the one thing I 100% agree with is, yeah, research the hell out of this stuff.
Because I do also believe that, you know, if we do come up, you know, hopefully, you know, sometime in Q2 and, you know, we go, you know, back to all time highs, you know, by know sometime in q2 and and you know we go you know back to all-time
highs you know by the end of 2026 if indeed that happens i'm not necessarily sure if it does but
if indeed that happens and yes right now would be the time to be looking into things but
i mean i would probably mirror what matt said is you trade what's in front of you right now
and what's in front of you is ultra weak ultra dead um what's in front of you right now and what's in front of you is ultra weak ultra dead um
what's in front of you is that btc is looking a little bit weaker and it looks like it's got a
little bit more ways to go so you know i would honestly instead of um really instead of just
being you know glued to the space go be with your family but touch grass this is going to be here
tomorrow i don't think you just i don't think you really disagreed with anything I said, though.
I think you just said right there you agree with me 100%.
Because I didn't say we're bottomed.
But I said this is the time to be researching altcoins.
It's when nobody's paying attention.
Yeah, I just wouldn't be buying any dips right now.
What?
I just wouldn't be buying any dips right now.
I mean, I'm definitely doing it. I think like also like I don't know
It's interesting to hear the regular person, right?
It's the regular person, right? So the regular person, you know in the u.s. Right?
The median income in the u.s. is like what 60 70 g's
And the cost of living is like, you know bare minimum 40 50
So you got 20 g's to play with if you're you know fire maxing. Right. So a lot of people don't have a lot of disposable income. What I would
recommend to anybody that's here is start a business, do something, you know, get good at
whatever niche that you're in. Um, get some income, you know, sell, do something. I mean,
well, can I finish, can I finish what i was gonna say um yeah sorry i
really don't think you disagreed with like anything i said though i mean like you know
just so the audience is clear like i didn't really think anybody's a financial advisor here including
myself so it's like how are you gonna that that's the only thing i disagree with you it's like people
don't have cash right now i I actually, I disagree with so
many people I've heard on spaces and stuff. I think people are actually very smart when they
come to their money. People saying, oh, the normies, the crypto, like they're not very smart.
I like entirely disagree with that. I think people are very smart. And I think that
they do know their limits. And I don't think people are going to over invest or over buy
something if they don't have the cash on the side or they don't want to.
I really just don't. I don't believe that.
So we can disagree on that and people can disagree with me.
I think people are extremely careful when it comes to their money.
So I think if people are interested in crypto, you know, it's just about like researching, learn the game.
But people are going to buy stuff like, you know, if they want to buy crypto, you know, the best way is just research and DCA because they're not going to wait.
They're not trading experts and not going to wait till the exact bottom of the market and throw all their cash in because that is something like people are new to the market.
market they don't know how to do so i would actually i think people are actually very smart
They don't know how to do.
when it comes to their money especially if they don't have a lot because they know that they need
a certain amount of cash for certain things and i think that when people look at the markets like
crypto or anything else i think it's always like an excess of cash and um so yeah so i i don't
actually think we really disagreed like too much on what you said there.
You know, I don't think we bottomed yet, but I think it's a really big opportunity.
Like you said, alts are dead.
That's the, in my opinion, that's the time to be looking at altcoins right there because it is dead.
Right.
So, yeah.
So, no, I think we agreed on a lot of things, actually.
I could kind of chip in real quick.
I could give you a couple of examples.
Of course, this is based on the past, right?
I know a couple of people that they did buy some MIM coins when markers were dead, like dead, just like right now.
This was about last year, right before the MIM coin, whatever popped off.
popped off one of my co-hosts my show samara he actually went deep uh into the the the the
the meme coin market and he was able to you know get that early before anybody else did you know
the same thing you know memes were dead he jumped in early he just he didn't know you know how
things gonna play out and because of his his early move he made based on he's just bored.
The entire stuff was dead, right?
He bought two houses and two freaking cars for his family, man.
Just because he started
farming. He was looking for these gems early.
How many people who lost?
Oh, no, I know. I'm just
saying. You guys got to remember
that this is a zero-sum game, dude.
When you're winning, someone else is losing.
No, I agree.
You're right.
So what I'm saying is I don't...
So both of you are correct at the same time.
You...
It is a weird situation because we're all in a different financial situation, like I said.
But I think if you...
You got to take that risk, man.
You have to take it.
You know, you have to...
You don't.
You don't.
He's buying houses. No, no. You have to take it. You have to... You don't.
He's buying houses. No, no.
Because you don't have a lot of people
that have a lot of money in crypto, right?
But this is a space where you could change your life,
but if you don't take that chance,
you're not going to have that... That's why you build a business
because that's better.
But you're right.
But not everybody has the opportunity, man.
Some people, all the all the
money happens one kid that one grand that's all they have through their name so how are you gonna
start a business with one k and you in Venezuela or not you're gonna so what I'm saying is like
like it you have to take that risk man but at the same time it's a risk right nothing's guaranteed
but you got to get a risk so you're correct you are correct I agree with you for sure you you
should create the business but this is not advice for average person that has like two three k to their name but crypto wait up wait up sorry
so so i hear what you're saying you're you're what what it sounds like you're saying is hey if you
have two or three k go start looking at some altcoins to make a potential 100Xs or go minus 90.
Instead of hone your skills, be good at what you do, and use the internet that is widely available for everybody to profit max. Afro, you're talking about income maxing, right?
Yes.
That's a market that a lot of people have to be focused on.
That's a market that a lot of people have to be.
You have to, man.
You have to, man, because look, look.
These are not like market conditions to like actually run up a bag.
No, yeah, that's what I'm saying.
The amount of winners is like less now.
I think the only time I can recall where on-chain has been like this piss poor um was august of 2023 up until like late october
when seoul actually started uh like the macro right now right now is the time to preserve the
preserve the cash and deploy when marking conditions get better like do you want to
catch the 20x on the chance that you're going to go down 90 or would you rather catch a you know a three or four x when everything's already
going up if you want to catch the 20x i'm going to tell you right now you're over you're over
leveraging and you're going to get wrecked and the context of that 20x like matters too afro like
there's a difference between catching something at like 20k market cap and selling it at like 400k
to say buying something at like two mil and running it all the way up to like 40 50 right
like correct like at that point like if if you're playing those zero-sum games like
literal hunger games you're honestly better off sports betting man
well this is what like yeah it is like sports betting you have to put things in categories
there's trenching there's trading and then there's investing so i have three different categories what
do i love to do i love trenching that's not investing right and then there's trading which i would consider altcoins and high caps and then there's investing right
so it's like which is probably like bitcoin eth and not much more than that in my opinion so
if you have to separate the categories so people chasing the next 20x kind of need to realize that's trenching right the the altcoins is trading
and the bitcoin is investing so it's three three in my opinion three completely different things
so people want to chase the next 20x they absolutely should it's fun i love doing it
i do it every day right but i fully understand that's not trading you know and i'm always clear
with my audience these are like very small bets like Like to Wabi's point, he's like catching something at 20k and selling 400
very different. Yeah, because you can't liquidate a lot of money. So you can only put little bets
in those kind of, in those kind of trench plays, right? It's a completely different game than the
altcoin game. It's a completely different game than the Bitcoin game, right? Long term. So I think if people kind of just like know the categories, and then you can do, I do all of them, you know what I
mean? I do Bitcoin, I do all coins, I do trenching, but it's all different, right? Because the game
is different for each individual thing. But on your point, starting in business, yes, I think
everybody should do that. I'm a serial entrepreneur, serial entrepreneurial in several businesses but I also think we got to keep in mind like when you're talking to everybody not
everybody is entrepreneurial not everybody wants to start a business or has like the capability to
start a business right you know I think some people are better at having you know multiple
revenue streams because they don't know how to start a business or manage a business or they don't want to right it's just not they're just not don't have the personality type for it so
me i always speak to like all personality types because you know and it's kind of like pick your
category i think people know what their budget is i think like i said i think people are actually
very smart when it comes to their money they know what They know what they can risk or afford to lose. In fact,
I would actually argue the poorer you are, the smarter you actually are with your money.
Where most people say, no, the wealthier you are, the smarter with your money.
In crypto, I actually think the poorer you are, people are smart with their money because they're
very, very careful. And when things go down things go down actually very caught more cautious than you
know somebody who's a billionaire they put 100 million into bitcoin they're down like i don't
know 20 mil it's kind of like no big deal so i actually think uh the least cash you have in my
experience in crypto they're actually like way more cautious and skeptical than um than the wealth managers, but that's just my opinion.
You're going to say something, Matt?
Sure, yeah.
Just real quick.
You know, I say this all the time,
I'll say it one more time,
that look, you never sell your Bitcoin.
You don't. I might be short one more time that, look, you never sell your Bitcoin. You don't.
I might be short-term, medium-term bearish,
but it's the one asset that I know will survive any bear market and come out stronger on the other end.
So I've seen this way too many times since I bought my first Bitcoin in 2014.
And no, you just never sell your Bitcoin.
That being said, there's going to be a lot of people.
Like, FOMO is real.
And I'm sure this is some people's first and second cycle.
Afro, brother, let me, I'll just say this, man.
In three years, man, if you still
see me talking about
on-chain stuff, bro,
I've probably failed
in a big way.
I'm not doing this long-term,
bro.
No, I mean, that's why
we all know this is a zero-sum game.
I'm pivoting to building, bro.
I'm pivoting to building, bro. I'm pivoting to building, man.
I'm back.
I'm pivoting to building.
This is not really sustainable, man, to be honest.
It's not.
And, I mean, look, long degeneracy.
Your idea of reality, like having normal day-to-day conversations with people,
it's like you become a different person bro like dude when someone asks hey what do you do for a living
sometimes you have to say i exploit capital inefficiencies and markets and you know and
then when they ask something else you just you, oh, it's just really boring stuff.
Like when you actually say what you do in this, like you become a target.
Literally, you actually become a target and people look to exploit you either for time or resources, but mainly time.
Right. I'm sure everyone has had this conversation you tell
someone you're into crypto they ask you a bunch of questions and you answer them and then they like
they they turn it into an interview making making it seem like why are you even in crypto or like
oh risky this risky that so it's like why even ask me in the first place?
It's very negative EV and probably will be for a very, very, very long time, man.
An extremely long time. We just need the great harvest of all these altcoins to throw all their liquidity back into uh throw all the liquidity back into you know l1
which is just bitcoin and ethereum and maybe some other things that do stuff that's basically it
on it i don't that's what happened in 2018 bro that's exactly what happened in 2018.
we just all the meme coins need to go to zero
2019 dude
You'll notice that like Bitcoin almost hit an all-time high during the first half of 2019
It ran up from 3000 to 14 K in a matter of a few months where there's all coins didn't even come close man
And months where there's all coins didn't even come close man um and as far as like what all coins look out for bro you remember in 2022 the the matt matt was there on those spaces too um many people
many people were saying bro when solana gets down to 40 50 bucks i'm gonna go ahead and buy some when luna gets down a sub five dollars
i'm gonna buy some when avax gets like 20 30 bucks i'm gonna buy some and we all know what happened
after that and crypto is you're having instead they switch to uh an attention game how how i'm
gonna short bitcoin because it fell below 20k.
That's what it flips to.
Those things turned into macro... I'm going to...
I'm not going to name any names, but I'm going to time the bottom of bonds.
That's the new alpha.
I was going to say, the time to buy is when people start saying Bitcoin is dead.
That's when you know it's time to go back in so yeah i'll give it a couple more
months for everyone to get even more tired about uh crypto in general and that's when i'll start
looking to redeploy everything but for now i'm just uh i'm gonna enjoy touching grass and being
with family and playing saxophone because i just bought myself a saxophone
from all my games jupiter airdrop the moment you claim it oh hell yeah bro yeah what about you
cool are you selling it you're the you're the you're the king of airdrop farming man
no man these new projects man they don't they go through the shortest book a bit of a you know a bull run
in crypto history they come out uh the tze one day and they don't 90 in two weeks so you get
yeah yeah it's just there's too many projects right now there's too many projects coming out
and uh and they keep raising money still you know 20, 20, 30 million. It's pretty crazy. So I might advise anyone that gets any token,
just get it and take your money and run away.
There you go.
There you go.
How big are the airdrops lately?
Cool.
Like how?
Airdrop season is kind of dead too, though.
Because that niche, you know, depends on Bitcoin doing well.
And right now, like, it has to be seen.
Monad.
Monad was the last big airdrop.
And after that, nothing.
So it's been almost three months now, we're just dead, dead.
So a lot of people have left crypto, man.
I mean, I could see it from my timeline.
A lot of people are going to something else.
But it's an interesting time.
We've all been here before, but it's just interesting to see how, you know,
history just keeps repeating over and over again.
And I've been here before.
Yeah.
They're metal maxis now, you know.
They're buying the blow-off top.
Palladium.
Which is crazy.
They're buying the all-time high.
Exactly.
They're buying gold.
They're buying gold and silver.
They're on rain that rain that rain that. You can't see them. Like that you can't see them like you can't like look imagine imagine eating the the drawdown in bitcoin and crypto and then taking whatever gains you even have left whatever money
you even have left and then going buying the all-time ever high of gold and silver.
What's going to happen when that draws down, too?
Yeah, it's the media, man.
The news, the financial media has been yelling,
go buy gold, buy gold, buy silver.
And you know the game, right?
They push your retails, go buy gold and dump on them.
That's probably what's happening, bro.
Yeah.
It's all cabals, guys.
You got the Trump cabal. You got the alt altcoin cabal you got the meme coin cabal none of these people are different they act like the meme coin cabals are so bad
they're all doing the same shit everybody save yourselves altcoins are dead so that's the time
to start researching and buying that's what i'm doing i think people be very happy if they pick
projects that are being used we know they're being used look at the new listing here's a cheat
go look at the robin hood see the new alt coins they just listed this year when we didn't have
an alt coin season that's how you know which ones are gonna be most likely to pump next year because
robin hood why the hell are you listing h bar in the middle of nowhere
and all these other things it's very sus so we know they're gonna cry malts in 2026 we know the
trump cabal is gonna do it so that's what i'm doing right now and uh yeah those those are my
my closing remarks you know you know it's crazy ragsy that's crazy i've actually i've been telling
people to do this for like the six or eight months, man.
Basically, what you want to do is you want to just go to Google, use Grok, use ChatGBT,
just type in cryptos listed on Robinhood.
Just pick one of those two or whatever.
Just find any alts on that list.
And I mean, that's where the retail money comes in through.
I mean, I don't mean, I mean, the regular retail, not crypto retail.
And those coins on Robinhood are going to do very, very, very well.
So I will recommend you just go look at those lists and figure out which ones you like and
which one has a more fair value but 100% I agree with you man I remember like I said based on
which one has a more fair value.
But 100% I agree with you, man.
history the tokens on Robin Hood went absolutely crazy last time and whenever this happens again
I know I know there's some meme coins on Robin Hood too I know Chainlink is there like I think
that the list like I think 15 or 20 alts onin hood you need to go find that list and you need to
study them and trying to try to just just park some money in it and just wait and see what happens
right you're taking a chance but robin hood they have a disappointed man uh when the money does
come back in any cryptos on robin hood pop off like crazy so that's definitely good advice man
yeah because that's the go-to for even like not retail, but even like if you're a wealth manager and stuff, you're interested, they'll have Robinhood.
They think like, oh, this is the thing.
They don't even have Coinbase and shit like that.
They're like, oh, this is what about this one?
You know, that's why people don't understand.
Like, even though there's like debate if XRP sucks or not, that's why people buy it because they're looking at it.
Oh, look, it's the top three and it's only a dollar. Like that, that is literally the mind of like the
average, uh, retail buyer. And that's, that's what's kept the money flowing in their marketing
machine. And these guys are massive on TikTok, man. They like, you, you think we have DJs in
crypto. We, we are nothing compared to the TikTok stock trading people. Whenever the
money comes, I don't know when it's going to happen.
Eventually, it's going to come back. Eventually.
When it does, these TikTok
people, they are all the rubber
with assets and they go absolutely crazy.
So, just get there early. That's it.
I got to go train shoulders in a
bit. So, Mar, go ahead.
What's up?
What's up, Kuro?
No, man. First of all, Mar, what's up, bro? Mar, go ahead. What's up? What's up, Kuro? No, man, I, well, first of all,
hey, man, I apologize. Last time
I came up on your space and didn't
say that, you know, happy to see you
recover from the,
you know, you were feeling really bad
last time, so I hope you...
Yeah, I had a
mild pneumonia, man.
That's pretty bad, bro. But it is what it is, man. What mild pneumonia, man. That's pretty bad, bro.
But it is what it is, man.
What's up, man?
I actually wanted to end the show like 30 minutes ago, man.
But here we are.
I wanted to talk to Matt about unemployment because I dig some numbers in there.
And next time I see that he left.
But I do want to bring one thing up.
You know, cool is right here and then in life, you got to take a chance, man.
I've taken it, and I've failed on a few, and I've done great on others.
So, you know, sometimes you got to go in there and throw, you know,
some money on something and just, you know, pray.
But, you know, we're all here to take a chance, you know, in life.
It's just sometimes you got to go Maverick.
But the one thing I do want to say, Raxi and Alford,
because maybe, you know, we're a little confused about DCA.
I love to DCA.
DCA for me is everything in and out, you know.
But, you know, right now in the markets, you know,
you could probably start to DCA, you know, not financial advice, but on stocks or even whatever, like Bitcoin, Ethereum.
But the one thing, Raxian, if you disagree with me, that's fine.
You know, you play your game.
I play my game.
I don't DCA low market caps. You know, I don't DCA on the way down low market caps at all.
Like, if I got in at $2 million, that shit, I'm not going to follow it to $100K, $500K.
No way.
If that shit doesn't make me money at $2 million market cap, in the future, it wasn't meant to be.
But I don't know what else you take on that.
Well, that's a meme point.
Yeah, but you're talking about meme.
So that's why I said the categories.
There's trenching.
There's trading.
There's investing.
You're talking about a meme point.
Two million market cap.
That's a meme coin.
That's not an alt coin.
You feel me?
No, we have great projects out there.
Even a 10 million, 20 million market cap.
The guys are building.
And they look like really promising projects and you have people
DC aim the shit out of it. Oh if I if I go 20 million 10 million 100k and they don't see that this thing
It's not probably it's probably not coming back
But those are but those are memes the altcoins like DC a low all is like at a 200 million market cap
Like DC a low all is like at a 200 million market cap
So it's completely different. So yeah DC a something at 2 million that's in time
That's like a thousand times more risky than DC a bottom doll coin. That's holding at 200 mil completely different game
one of my biggest
investments, I think one of the greatest investments
investments I think one of the greatest investments I ever done in DC a was
I've ever done in DCA was
the Kroll coin,
you know? I bought that shit at half a
dollar and chased it all the way
down to five cents, you know?
And it paid off on this last pump,
you know? Yeah, dude. And this last pump,
I got out. It is the greatest trade
I've ever been. I came out even
after four years.
Mar,
we got the
that's the all coin game
that's right bro
a lot of these all coins are there
to be honest
I don't trust
Afro told me this bro
there are no friends
in coins
there are no friends in coins
there really isn't
hey one thing i did want to say because i typed on this because listen man we didn't have an old
season but we had an old market which was a prediction market bro dude i really want to
say something about old season but i can't say it because i'm on the company account
but um my god man i'll tell afro at some point uh maybe maybe on like a wabi dj late night space
i'll probably do one like sometime late this week probably at like one or three in the morning or something like that
able christmas starts in a few hours all right so i'm gonna go ahead and sign off uh everyone
have a great christmas week see you all next monday feel free to follow because bitcoin account follow
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