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Market Talk- HUGE MOVE incoming for crypto soon!? Jobs data?? Alt szn?
Recorded: Jan. 8, 2026 Duration: 1:42:10Space Recording
Short Summary
In a lively Market Talk session, experts discussed the latest trends in the crypto market, including the IWM's all-time high, MSTR's impressive after-hours gains, and the implications of upcoming job data and Fed policies. The conversation highlighted the shift towards AI in tech, the importance of hiring in the sector, and the potential for significant growth as liquidity increases in the economy.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. I can't remember anything, can't tell if this is true or dream.
Deep down inside I'm feeling this dream, this terrible silence stops in there. now
oh Oh, man.
Back in the womb, it's much too real. It comes like that I'm always real.
We can't look forward to reveal
Look to the time when I live, and do the good things to me
Just like what a normal will be, tied into the sheets and made me feel
And this life got from me, I can't hold my pretty sideways One day I've always got a way Oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, Oh and Thank you. I'm I'm I'm
I'm I'm And I died, kept in myself, but in my own way, yeah. Yeah, yeah.
Not my ass, taking my sight, taking my speech,
taking my hearing, taking my arms, taking my legs,
taking my soul, everyone's life in hell. my music Thank you. Music so
what's up, guys?
Happy Thursday.
Welcome back to Market Talk, brought to you by BB.
My name's Wabi, and I hope so far you guys have had a fantastic week.
We had an insane show yesterday.
So many speakers, man.
So many good topics that we went over over last light stream.
And I think we cooked for almost three hours, man.
I really don't remember the last time that we cooked for that long.
Probably early December, late November, right around that time frame.
And we do have some important data coming out in regards to jobs but um then we have our old friend the IWM hitting an all-time high earlier today during
the New York then during the New York uh trading session and you know lately and by lately I mean
like last month and in November the IWM making new all-time highs hasn't really meant much man
it really hasn't uh and it probably won't mean anything unless this thing
skyrockets by like 15% over the next two weeks, if that's even possible. The IWM hasn't had
that much of a volatile move to the upside since the election, where I think the IWM had a double
digit rally right out of the election going into Thanksgiving.
It was an insane move.
We saw tickers like hood and coin going up like 30-plus percent in after hours.
It was honestly insane.
And speaking of certain stocks that are up on the day, MSTR is up by like 3%, 4% going into the close.
Now, what does that mean for Bitcoin?
Truthfully, man, I really, really don't know at this point because the way MSTR was shaping
up to be, it's kind of like Bitcoin at 70K, 65K, where MSTR was trading at the lows.
That's basically the equivalent for Bitcoin in respect to its
micro strategy beta pair and it's we're kind of in a in a weird spot man but I want to remain
bullish I want to remain optimistic extremely optimistic and we'll see how this job report comes in.
Everyone's looking at it at this point, and it's kind of like how people were looking at CPI after that huge reading in July of 2022,
where inflation was the trend that everyone was talking about, whether you were in markets or out of markets.
Now you're starting to see everyone talking about the rise of unemployment.
And it's such loud noise that I don't really think there's much signal in it.
Maybe one more hoorah if Jobs comes in.
Maybe we stab 75.
But I think for the most part at least for trends
in crypto um i do think you're gonna see some fireworks anytime you have a hundred million
dollar runner it tends to have like a little ripple effect even if it's delayed even if it
is delayed um we saw that last year as the market started to bottom out.
We saw things like LaunchCoin going to almost 400 mil.
And the market pulled back in a big way.
We hit an all-time high in May, I remember, after we hit 74 in April.
Then we had on-chain going ballistic for a little bit.
Everything had a huge dead cap bounce.
BTC pulled back from like 112K all the way down to 94.
And then as we came out of that bottom, we saw things like Troll and Useless going to like 300 mil plus.
And a bunch of stuff on base like Tibber and other names just started going ballistic.
So there's a saying that I've yapped on here on a market talk over the last few years.
And it's history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
And if history is any indication, then, you know, certain patterns might play themselves out.
And I remember that that bear trap that was set in June of last year.
It was right around $93, $94K.
And that low was set going out of FOMC.
We were actually pulling back quite hard on altcoins going out of that June FOMC meeting.
And perhaps this is the same with this job support.
Everyone has eyes on it.
Everyone and their mother in markets has eyes on it.
And that's kind of what I have to say about that.
As far as on-chain goes, White Whale hits another all-time high.
Not by much, but it did hit an all-time high earlier today.
Dude, probably the greatest CTO I've ever witnessed on a coin.
Um, I'm not sure if there's a story in crypto where like something literally almost goes
to zero and then one person is the sole reason why it marked up to a hundred mil plus.
And the trend with Solana is anytime there's a sender over 100 mil and
a sender that allows people to actively get in during pullbacks and it doesn't just
rug to zero it does does it does uh tend to start a trend uh within the broader market market but um back to equities we also have iron up like four percent today um i i i i do have bias
towards that name just because like it also has to do with ai and i just don't really see the story
with uh with mstr anymore there's only so much leverage that michael saylor can get into and
unless kiwi and zurp were to happen i i really don't see this thing um outperforming some of uh
these ai mining data centers if you want to call them that a lot of these companies went from
miners to ai data centers and um I find that to be quite interesting.
I really do.
I sent Prometheus if you want to come on up here.
If anyone else wants to come on up here and talk shop, you're more than welcome to do so.
I've been trying to get some of the broader community up from these spaces over the last few shows.
But some of the profiles that I've requested to speak are honestly quite scary, if I were
to say so myself.
But if anyone wants to come on up, feel free to request.
I just have to look at your profile before uh before i bring you up because
we've had some um we've had some uh some characters come up in the past where i just bring them up
without without uh searching their page a lot of buffoonery a lot of shenanigans from hooligans on X.
But, yeah, I think another name that I've been looking at lately, as far as equities go, is Intel.
And that was another one, man.
The name escapes me.
AMD, that's the one, man.
AMD, that is the one.
We were talking about that one on the show late last year in Q4.
That one looks like it had a blow-off, man.
Like late December.
No, no, I'm sorry.
Late October, early November.
Excuse me.
Excuse me, guys.
And it's kind of right around where the Q queues had topped out the qqq that's right around that time frame where the queues had topped out um and from recent memory outside of
late q4 i don't remember the last time that the russell was in price discovery and the queues weren't the queues weren't the queues are like
i'd say it looks like it's like three percent away from uh going into price discovery like i
don't remember the last time that the iwm kept on making these marginal new highs while the queues were lagging.
It's kind of like, if I dare to say it, if ETH goes into price discovery and Bitcoin
hasn't, right?
It's kind of like if ETH went into price discovery now and BTC was chilling at like 95k right it might
look good but it's it's it's kind of like the chickens coming home to roost um for an exit I hope that's not the case for the IWM, but this index hasn't exactly had the greatest signal
since the election, to be honest. Anytime the IWM has had outperformance post-election against
the indices, it's kind of marked like a local top for the equity markets to be
honest and you're having some of these larger cap names like uh an amd lagging not really doing much
um and you're having some of these smaller names like i covered uh mscr and iron up so it's like you've got these tiny caps and
these high caps aren't really doing much at all and um i remember coming out of that bottom
in april everything was rallying absolutely everything was rallying but but I'm just going to chalk it up to just that time to start the year where there's really not much action until February.
Going into February of a new year is usually when you start to see some huge price action unfold.
That was the case last year, the year before that,
and the year before that, and the year before that.
There's always a trending move going into February,
and it's usually a very important move,
a huge important move that I think people need to pay attention to, really.
So we have the FOMC later on this month.
Powell's probably not going to cut.
I'm not sure who said this during yesterday's space.
We had like 10 people on.
It was insane.
And I think it was Evan.
Evan was the one that said this on Tuesday.
on Tuesday. But Evan was basically saying that since Powell has started to cut, anytime he
has a pause in those cuts, the market does tend to pull back quite a bit. But we'll see if that's the trend. We had Cantrell on yesterday, and he's quite bullish for the year.
So we had a plethora of people that have been in markets for a while having some differing thoughts.
So I'm sure this year is going to be very interesting, insanely interesting.
It is a midterm year.
It's a midterm year during a president's second term.
And they've usually been quite bullish.
Midterm year for Bush, his second go around was bullish.
Same with Obama.
But their first midterm year during their first term was not, it was just not, not great.
2010 was filled with those flash crashes that became pretty,
pretty infamous.
But before I pass it on over to Prometheus and any of you guys that want to
come up and talk some shop,
if you guys want to show some love to the space would be much appreciated.
Best way to do that guys guys, is by clicking the Spaces tab.
Once you guys do that, you'll see that nice link that says x.com slash i slash spaces.
You guys can smash up the like button, hit up the retweet button.
It does a number of things.
It helps to bring the show more out into the algorithm.
It helps just with overall brand awareness,
and helps please our tech overlords.
And Spaces are recorded as they've always been over the last few years.
And I want to thank each and every one of you that are tuning in right now,
whether you're here live listening to the Space
or you're listening to the recording.
Welcome, welcome.
And I hope you uh
all enjoy today's stream so um i think to end the week it's probably going to be insanely volatile
and probably going to mark like a a peak in this whole unemployment we got to look at unemployment reading thing. At least that's, at least that's
my take. I, I kind of compare it to the tariffs, the whole tariff situation. I'd compare it more
so to March than April. I think March was like peak attention as far as that narrative goes,
right? There's always a narrative to the upside? There's always a narrative to the upside.
There's always a narrative to the downside.
And yeah, I'd really like to see some follow through with the Qs.
It's been topped out for about two and a half months.
That's probably the only thing that concerns me just a little bit, I would say, for the equity markets.
Um, but all it really takes is Trump to tweet a little bit more, talking about markets, and, uh, and we're good on that.
We're good on that.
Uh, tariffs are a thing of the past.
Now it's just unemployment.
And I think by May, June at the latest,
Trump is going to have everyone on his back
to change data and just make it as bullish as possible
and really do anything to prop up these markets.
So it's kind of like if bears are going to do something it has to
be asap in my opinion um and it has been about three months since bitcoin has topped and as i've
been saying on these spaces over the last like week um usually around this time, the three to four month post-top for Bitcoin,
you do start to see some vulnerability, right?
Even after we had that March top, we would draw down to like $54,000, $55K.
And that really hasn't been the case.
We marked down to $80k one time man just one time
and uh we've bounced quite heavily but um if we do lose something like 85 then oh my goodness man
probably some probably uh some tickers get thrown out to the woodshed they've gone too far ahead of their skis they lost their shirts yada yada yada
um but with that being said once again i want to do a little roll call if anyone that's listening
right now wants to come up and yap you're more than welcome to do so just hit that uh that request
button at the bottom left and uh I'll bring you right on up.
I'm sure someone is going to request, or probably some of our speakers, our usual speakers,
probably come in at like 4.30, 5 o'clock, something like that.
Our panel was maxed out yesterday, man.
That was a beauty to see. And I think it
just goes to show that I think despite that beginning of the year lull where people slowly
start to come back to social media, talk markets, they start to slowly come back and bring volume on markets. I think it's beautiful to see that some people are just passionate about markets.
They don't just arrive when volume starts to be insanely high and leave when it starts to trickle down.
Some people just love these markets, whether it's bull, bear, crab, high volume, low volume, crabby volume.
But I do like, speaking of volume, I do like the volume that is coming on chain.
You do see more active wallets across the board, both on sole and also on base.
So, you know, we'll see how that pans out going into February.
I think, I think from a time perspective, I think that you'll get some directionality
for the rest of the quarter and perhaps even the year to see how the year is going to end.
Um, it's an interesting statistic that, uh, big Hagrid, our, our, our local seven foot
pig farmer, um, uh, told me I think, back in October, late October,
where the way Q1 ends in a year, regardless if it's a pre-election year, election year, post-election year,
the way quarter one ends is usually the way quarter four ends.
That's been the trend so we'll see if history repeats itself
but uh i think um i'm gonna pass it over to to prometheus i've been yapping for about 20 minutes
to give uh the intro so prometheus what's going on man how are you feeling about the IWM, man? Probably the biggest psyop in the equity markets. It reminds me so much of Ethereum in 2024. it locally tops out drags back down and all it does is like these little marginal highs man
these little marginal highs um and and truthfully man like unless the fed really steps on it with
this little invisible qe that they've been doing their balance sheet is trickling up for the first time in four years.
Yeah, four years.
That was the last time you saw the Fed balance sheet had any sort of upward momentum.
And that was when it was peaking out, when QT was about to start and QE was about to end.
So, I mean, if history is any indication, then we need to see the IWM have some follow through for once. Like it can't just be making these little marginal highs, man. Cause then it's like, it's like they and then it hits like 40, 30. Then it goes back to 3000 and then it hits like
40, 60 and it goes back to 3000. And it's just, it's just like lukewarm soup. If anyone has had
lukewarm soup or cold eggs, I'll tell you what.
I've had cold eggs recently, and it's not the greatest.
It really isn't, man.
It's not.
Yeah, cold eggs are disgusting.
Cold eggs are one of the worst foods you could ever partake in.
Yeah, it's like beef jerky, man.
Beef jerky is like subhuman.
Wait, whoa, whoa, whoa.
Why don't you like beef jerky man beef jerky is like subhuman it's like whoa whoa whoa why don't you like beef jerky
because beef jerky is like it's like meat if it was bubble gum it's like it's meat flavored
bubble gum dude that's exactly what beef jerky is it's like getting bubble gum and then smearing it on steak um and then freezing it and then putting it in a microwave
you know you freeze it so it can get hard and uh then you put it in the microwave and then you put
some salt on it you rub some dirt on it you know that's what i told t, man. Tucker's like, oh, I'm sick. I have a boo-boo.
I can't go on stream today.
And then I called him, and I'm like, put some dirt on it, boy.
You ain't hurt.
Put some dirt on it.
And he got better, dude.
You know, he put some dirt on his boo-boo.
And he's back in action.
He's been on market check, but he hasn't been on Market Talk in weeks.
He needs to show Market Talk some love, and I know he's listening anonymously.
He's always listening anonymously.
Big Hagrid's always listening.
But anyways, man, we're going to get the show started officially.
But anyways, man, we're going to get the show started officially.
But yeah, guys, once again, if you're tuning in right now, if you guys can go ahead and please show some love to the space.
Best way to do that, guys, is by clicking the spaces tab, the little thing at the bottom.
And you'll see our profile pictures.
And right above that, you'll see up on the nests, on the jumbotron, whatever it is you want to call it.
You click that, guys.
And then that link that says x.com slash spaces.
Hit the like button, guys.
If you're bullish, smash it up.
If you're bearish, smash it up.
Hit the like button with as much force as possible.
Same thing with the repost button or retweet button, if you still call it that.
And we much appreciate it. you guys always do such a
fantastic job and um i think i'm gonna end off the uh the intro by saying um jim kramer has uh
told people to kind of ease off the buying so because of this rally or whatever so maybe that's what the iwm needs right it needs that uh
that inverse kramer so a bit tricky to start off the year man but uh i'll pass it over to
prometheus and we got evan up here as well and as i said if anyone wants to come on up here and uh
talk yeah um gosh man or even ask questions my goodness um yeah just come on just just come on up
if you guys want to have uh the late night show the the late night show model where it's just
questions you guys can come on up as well um but uh i see mike i'll invite him i see Mike. I'll invite him. I see Louie. I'll invite him as well.
I don't see Mar.
But Prometheus, what's up, man?
What are your thoughts on the IWM trying to psyop the market?
Or are you believing this breakout that's about potentially unfolding?
Yeah, sorry.
I am driving, so if I cut out at any point, I'll probably – the connection or reception will probably pick back up momentarily.
Now, a little bit of a tricky beast, and whether you're a bull or a bear,
I think that everybody...
Oh, you cut off, man.
Do you want me to pass it on to Evan first?
Just throw an emoji.
Okay, all right.
Evan, what's going on, man? Feel free to give uh some of your thoughts man on uh on this uh IWM and then we also look at the uh the Fed balance sheet
actually trick trickling up um and and I would say Evan like the way that the Fed balance sheet looks. And man, I don't want to be one of those guys
that like tries to do TA on like yields
and CPI and all that other stuff.
But if you just look at the Fed balance sheet
and the way it's trickling up,
it kind of reminds me of the way
Sol bottomed out at eight bucks.
It was just down only from like 80 bucks, 90 bucks,
down to eight.
And then it starts trickling up and goes on quite the uptrend so i think that's like something if you want to start
off with that man get your thoughts on that yeah man i mean a hundred percent like i think that
you know it's good long term and i think the most important thing here is that like
i think there's been enough ptsd for like all coins in general where there's been enough fear
and where if you get into good ones i'm not talking about memes and nonsense but good ones
you know with good fundamentals diversified portfolio which everyone talked about for the
past few years and probably got completely shredded, at least they got on their Bitcoin evaluations. But monetary policy, you know, what you're saying
is the big, big thing that kind of you could have COVID situations, you could have bad situations,
and you could still have a lot of altcoins outperform Bitcoin. You could still have
the IWM, you know, for example, do pretty well in that in these situations.
That shows how powerful monetary policy is right now.
But keep in mind, we could still go into a 2019 into early 2020 type bear market and
still see all outperform Bitcoin, such as Ethereum, which I think would be the best
bet to make.
So, you know, I do think it's like good for the next few years.
But if you do compare it to the last time we ended QT,
the last time we saw similar monetary policy,
you know, you look at ETH versus Bitcoin,
which bottomed out, you know, around August of 2019.
And it generally came up through COVID,
through, you know, that bear market in the end of 2019.
So, but keep that in mind, It may go down on its USD value.
I wouldn't say too much, but I still think that, man, I mean, I wouldn't get overly bullish
on this market.
I would agree with Jim Cramer for now, unless ETH can get above 3,700 and hold it and then,
you know, break up to 4,000.
For Bitcoin, the same situation could be said for breaking up to, I would say, $108K above there, $115K.
Those would be places where I would probably buy in anticipation for new all-time highs, in anticipation for super cycles.
But until then, I still think that we're pretty overheated.
The other thing that I would compare this to through history was what happened the last time.
I mean, Powell's obviously most likely
going to pause this month what happened the last time exactly a year ago that powell paused after
cutting rates you went into a bear market for a few months i mean you know four to six months kind
of that bear market into april there um early 2025 i don't know if it'll play out exactly um like
that maybe it's a slower bleed down um but i do think that when you see that pause i don't
think you're going to see another cut until powell's done i mean you look at the pallet
polymarket odds i think the last time i looked yesterday was 60 chance of even a pause in april
you know just keep pausing so i just don't think that's going to be good enough i think if you're
powell right now you're thinking my god silver is going off the rails it's going parabolic
what can i do to knock this
down? I'm not going to raise rates, but I'm sure as hell not going to lower rates. And I'm just
going to be, you know, sounding a little bit more hawkish saying my old goals, you know, we need to
get inflation down at 2%. And that's kind of how I would leave, leave my legacy if I was Powell and
let the new guy kind of lower rates and look all like that. Because, you know, if you're Powell, you got a decent legacy. I mean, you pulled through 2022. I mean, you got,
you didn't get inflation down to 2%, but you got it down to something that, you know, a lot of
people were satisfied with, you know, you kind of survived that. I think including myself, everyone,
including myself, you know, kind of thought we would go into a recession after the, you know,
in 2022, it'd get a lot worse. But, you know, he pulled through that.
And I think that, you know, obviously we're going to feel the consequences of that,
you know, similar to the UK in a lot of ways in the 1920s, you know, up to the 1930s, you know,
losing their power, you know, as the world power, you know, the USD, you know, losing more power as the world reserve currency.
I think we're getting kind of getting into that in the long term. I mean, I think this Greenland talk and all that's a little bit, we got lucky with
Venezuela, you know, I mean, the U.S. obviously is still very strong. We got lucky with Venezuela,
but this Greenland stuff, I don't think that's going to, I just don't think we're in the cycle
where the U.S. is going to somehow gain, you know, more land. I just don't think that. And I think
we're going to be a little bit less lucky. I mean, Trump's only got a couple more years left. I mean, can I do think J.D. Vance will probably
win, but I mean, can he lead up to those expectations, especially being somebody who's
more of a traditional politician and somebody who's not able to break away from the swamp,
I guess, if you will, the general kind of what we've seen in the past for kind of how it works, how this system works. So that's kind of what I'm looking at. What I'll
say quickly here is that, you know, Bitcoin right now, a little pullback, you know, you're looking
at like, I've been looking at like the five hour, you know, 200 SMA, nice bounce off of that. I do
think that you could bounce and continue forward here. And I do think you're at least going to test
the daily 200 moving average wherever that
may be when we hit it you know probably by the next FOMC at least at like 100 102k those areas
but I do think that Powell will probably knock us down a bit and my guess here is that everything as
a whole most cryptos you know from where they peak out this month if history is kind of any
indication here let's say 102k will get i mean
get ready for it i know it's a little bit depressing but about a 50 correction from there
again maybe i'm wrong maybe i'm just too much of a damn bear here but that's what history would
tell you maybe about a 50 correction from here ethereum as well but for ethereum in which i
think is something that can outperform bitcoin for maybe into the end of the decade, there's probably a lot of money to be made there.
That's only $1,800 for Ethereum.
So $1,800 to $2,000, my God, that's a good, I don't want to say the Lord's name in vain, but I mean, that's a good place to really get in, to really get in $1,800 to $2,000 and then potentially at least a five X into the end of this decade. I mean, that's pretty good for something with a market cap of 380 billion, you know,
right now, 380 billion right now. So I think there's a lot of potential there. The last thing
I'll say quickly is that I don't know if this is just coincidence, but Chainlink did fricking well.
Chainlink did really well when they started to stop Qt and back in 2019 that that looked pretty you know that
almost survived it didn't do too bad during covet either so may and it's making higher lows so like
the two coins i like the most right now obviously number one e that's the probably the best bang for
your buck but chain link if we can repeat what we did in 2019 2020 man i could fight back still making higher lows so yeah i think um intel is is trading like um at a 25 discount actually no 30 discount relative to
where eth is trading at in market cap and you know I'm thinking to myself, like, what's that kind of what's that
next trade? Like, what's that next trade in the equity market where you see kind of the same
similarities between Bitcoin and something else in the stock market? And I'm kind of stuck between
because if this is going to be like Trump's last term, there's going to be like trump's last term there's going to be like a golden age hoorah kind of uh with the
low caps and like other speculative suckers like crypto so this next run is going to be
all dominated rather than btc dominated then what's that pair trade what's that next btc
nvidia trade and i would say all right, if it's going
to be ETH, right? And ETH BTC is going to outperform aggressively over the next few years.
Then what's that stock pick? The cycle before that, it was BTC and Tesla,
or perhaps ETH and Tesla, because ETH severely outperformed BTC last cycle,
Tesla because ETH severely outperforming BTC last cycle went from 80 bucks to almost 5000.
And it's between AMD and Intel.
One of those two.
One of those two, I would say.
Gosh, and I'm kind of stuck in between the two.
And I say AMD due to that deal that they have with OpenAI.
It's like one of the only proxies that you can bet as far as OpenAI's growth.
But then you also have stuff like the Anthropic IPO and all that stuff.
And it could be one of those IPOs that just rip out of the gate something like a circle
what circle did where like those first few trading sessions were just um a face ripper and it wasn't
just down only like the hood ipo was um that's what i have to leave and pop back up on spaces i'm not able to hear you yeah
yeah but uh what about equities evan like are you looking for that for that similar pair trade um
equities oh what do you mean by pair looking for that similar pair trade? Equities.
Oh, what do you mean by pair trade?
Like against Bitcoin, are you mean?
Like, or ETH?
Yeah, yeah.
Like last, like not last cycle, but this recent run up that we've had from 22 all the way, I would say to like Q4 of 24.
It was BTC against NVIDIA.
And the cycle before that, it was BTC against NVIDIA. And the cycle before that, it was BTC against Tesla.
Or as I stated, it was ETH and Tesla.
Those two assets marked up by an egregious amount from late 2018 all the way to late 21.
And I would compare that to BTC and N nvidia during this most recent run-up and i think there's
like another i'll just call it mega cap tech name that can rally harder than people want to admit
because dude nvidia was trading like at like a market cap of a high cap altcoin before it went up a ton.
And I think that could be the same for something like an AMD or an Intel.
Because if you think about it, right, if we're going to go into a more like dovish
monetary cycle at this point, then a trillion dollar market cap asset isn't going to be valued in real terms in
like three years, right? Like 10 bucks today is probably not going to have the same purchasing
power as 10 bucks in three years, right? Because we know in three years, inflation is probably
going to tick up in a big way, just given like what this administration wants to do, who Trump is going to bring in
into the Fed. And it's clear that Trump wants interest rates probably in the negative, man,
just like where Japan was in the late 80s. Like that's kind of where uh is shaping up right now it's shaping up to be 1980s japan and i mean dude
that market must have been beautiful to trade back then oh man yeah i mean a lot of good points there
i you know i was looking at the pairs while you were you know mentioning that and i think that
like you know you look at bitcoin versus nvidia you know it's down a lot against nvidia it's
hitting a pretty down 90 which is crazy
against the video you would not think that i mean it just shows how crazy nvidia is gone but
it's hitting a double bottom higher low i do think bitcoin may be able to outperform nvidia
i'm not bullish on nvidia at all right now i think you got the right direction in terms of
monetary policy on like um bitcoin bitcoin versus intel i mean that's down bitcoin's down like 61 against intel so i
do think you may go ahead evan can hear me um just quick question why aren't you bullish on nvidia
oh it's just just based on the fun it just i think ai is just overheated right now i mean
if you look at the charts and everything i mean i just nothing's going to go up forever this it's
the same reason i'm more bearish on palantir you know what i mean i mean it's just like it just seems overheated i
mean you're you know you kind of had a blow off top right around like 211 i mean so far you've
been kind of downward i mean you know if you look at where these things normally retrace at points
i mean i could see you got some peaks at like 150, which is not like a terribly, you know, 19% down is not that crazy.
I mean, I could see it from where you are right now from overall from the all time high.
I mean, you know, 20 to 30% correction, which would be kind of nothing compared to what we saw in the 2022 correction, which was, you know, 68% downwards.
So if it's like half that, know 20 30 percent down not bad at all
um that would be that would kind of maybe break the thesis of you know of bitcoin kind of
outperforming you know nvidia bitcoin does drop another you know 40 percent there i think it
could be kind of sideways against nvidia it's hard to say but i i do think you know when you look at
intel that's the one you were mentioning intel Intel, I mean, that's down.
Bitcoin's down a lot against Intel.
I think that the next kind of trigger wave may be a good point.
I do think they may go kind of sideways this year, kind of bore us a little bit.
And then you may kind of turn around.
I think the general kind of cycle that we follow for Bitcoin.
I mean, the thing, too, is like I'd say the better, not the better charts, but like the good charts to look at as well would be like Bitcoin versus S&P 500. And,
you know, I mean, it was in the 2018 bear market, it bled 83%, you know, 2022, it bled 75%. And then
I would say this one would bleed, you know, somewhere, something with a six in front of it,
probably 60%, you know, kind of total. And so far, we're down like 40% against it,
I guess S&P 500 since July, which is, you know, kind of crazy. I mean, Bitcoin's been
down against gold since I think it was November of 2024, which is crazy to think too. And it kind
of shows diminished returns. Now, this doesn't mean that you shouldn't buy Bitcoin. This doesn't
mean that, you know, Bitcoin's dead. But it does mean, I think it would kind of strengthen the argument that ETH can outperform Bitcoin for kind of next two years,
strengthen this argument of diminished returns. And it kind of strengthens the argument of that
we should, you know, not, we should kind of be boys with the gold and silver people too. Although
I do think gold and silver will kind of go sideways against the S&P 500 for a few years
until there's kind of a recession. I think monetary policy would kind of,
you know, keep it in those areas. That's what I think Powell is going to, you know, try to do.
So I think it would be kind of boring against S&P 500. And later this decade, probably early
decade, you'd get one last run up against the kind of S&P 500 on those gold silver pairs. So
that's what I'm kind of looking at. I think you're going to get at least one bigger leg down on
Bitcoin versus S&P 500 kind of into the end of the year.
The earliest I can see would be maybe May.
If you look at that, what's interesting, the last thing I'll say here is that if you look at the Bitcoin two-week chart, 200 SMA in the two-week chart, we almost kind of hit it in our bear market last time.
If you factor into missed returns, we may hit it this time.
In addition, you may hit it on your Bitcoin S&P 500 pair, maybe like 50% down against S&P 500, which would be quite a bit better than
the last kind of bear market. So I'd be looking at that. I think summers, you know, I think summer
would be like May to June, July would be like the earliest time where we can see some really good
deals. I mean, I would love to get ETH at 1800, 2000., $2,000. I would love to get Bitcoin at around $50K.
You know, I think that would be, you know, some big wealth there.
But I think AI is probably going to pop.
I mean, I think Palantir is going to come down.
I think NVIDIA is going to come down.
And I think we're going to get some good deals.
I think a lot of these AI stocks that went crazy, you know, this time around,
kind of will do what some things did in 2022, like your robin hoods like a lot of these
other things so you know that's kind of just what i think um but maybe i'm wrong we'll see what
happens so yeah yeah i mean i were i respect the contrarian viewpoint just real quick you guys can
hear me correct loud and clear yeah yeah just making sure you never you never know with the
whole connection it was on the way to the gym so we're at the gym now typically have good connection here also
definitely underrated if you guys haven't done this go buy whole chickens from the from the
store and i'm not talking about those like costco you know pre-made rotisserie chickens that are
like six month chickens pumped full of saline and and have all you know the the
horrid's in them um i'm talking you know the good stuff make it yourself uh super underrated i mean
you get like a whole chicken how good chicken no chlorine saline pump garbage in it 15 bucks
whole roast that chicken that bitch will feed you for like three days. Fire cannot
go wrong. Anyways, back to business here. Yeah. I mean, Evan, I respect the viewpoints.
I understand where you're coming from. I completely agree that there is definitely
some probably overpricing in the forward outlook of
ai as of right now i mean they're trying to price in right now the next 10 years of of revenue for
for like the whole kind of ai trade right now and we'll see if that comes to fruition the big
question is at what point are they actually able to realize and monetize uh ai in a big big big way
in a more meaningful way than they're doing right now because as of right now it's a lot of just
kind of subscription fees at least for open ai open ai ai that is um i you kind of have to beg
the question okay if at some point do do they not or they're not able to monetize the trade, then kind of what happens thereafter?
Well, you're still going to see, in my opinion, demand for the chips.
I don't really ever see how that slows.
I think that that growth curve continues to be exponential.
continues to be exponential but and so what that means for nvidia is you know you're gonna see
megacab continue to you know shell out billions and billions and billions of dollars um trying to
fuel fuel this growth um but like the smaller companies that are probably a little bit more
like capex sensitive that don't have any like real revenue you know maybe those kind of fall off a cliff um and do see like that quote unquote like bubble burst we'll see what happens i see dorito in the
crowd loving the defense trade right now with like drones aerospace and a uh like that whole like ai
uh drone meta mesh we're seeing go on right now that's definitely the future uh with lockheed martin and what boeing six-gen fighters
i know that's going to be a big talking point um we are seeing this kind of like weird uh like
global you know political escalation kind of ensuing it's like hot and cold, hot and cold. It's kind of confusing. But Trump is like,
we're going to double the budget for defense. So I mean, you know, that's probably not going to
slow down anytime soon, right? Tech is becoming more and more and more expensive.
And technology is also, you know know growing at an exponential curve and
you have to keep up and if you don't keep up then you turn into cambodia you know and you're flying
like 1970s fighter jets into war uh and it's just like it just doesn't work obviously so definitely
don't see that side slowing down i was kind of of mentioning with the IWM trade, Wabi, you talked about it.
I would love to see some freaking volatility, man.
Just like these markets, at least the indices are just pinned right now.
I would love to see this unwind in either.
I don't care if you're a bull or a bear.
People are just wanting volatility within these markets.
You know, Bitcoin coming back down within the range, you know, lovely, you know, great.
We love, you know, let's enter back into the seven week range again.
Like nobody wants to see that.
Nobody, it sucks trading it unless you're scalping it.
And besides that, it's like, OK, what's, you know, what what what do we got to do here like does
do things actually need to like break down and and you know whatever perspective that may be
or do we need to you know or do we need to see like more reassurance come into these markets i
think either way people are going to be excited for volatility or at least a trending move across the board.
Does the IWM actually go and break new all-time highs?
I am expecting it to, just looking at kind of volatility here, locally speaking, and the structure of VIX.
But, man, it's like this slow kind of like it's honestly like a fucking tease you know it's
it seems like every week we're just flirting with new highs eventually soon we'll get the breakout
you know i i think it's gonna be sooner rather than later i'm not one that's gonna really be
calling like a triple top here on the iwm and the russell um what else man i i've just kind of been scalping lower time frame bitcoin
like i said i reduced some of my spot holdings exposure that i picked up funny enough on sunday
and monday so like i had some like long exposure for like 24 to 48 hours before i kind of you know
was like all right i'm gonna reduce some risk we're back within the range you know, was like, all right, I'm going to reduce some risk. We're back within the range, you know, lead direction show itself before, you know, if
I want to, you know, go back long again.
Yeah, I, I'm just kind of cruising right now, man, just kind of cruising in the markets.
It is a little bit of a sigh up, you know, or you think it'd be a little bit of a psyop you know or you think it'd be a little bit of a
psyop from kramer coming out and saying like hey we need to be cautious and you're also seeing tom
lee say the same things i believe i believe tom lee as of right now is telling people that
they're expecting a i know at the end of last year he was expecting a pullback in q1 from like a profit taking uh dynamics because
of how how well the stock market's really done the past 12 years so 12 years 12 months um
we'll see we'll see what happens i don't know if that's like a traditional media psyop or not
i hate using those guys as like barometer for direction it's like generally like never a
good never a good thing to be doing in my opinion you just got to kind of be paying attention to
directionality you got to be paying attention to price it's far more signal than what those guys
talk about i think the whole like you know a lot of the macro talking heads and
and guys that focus on that it's it's just like a game of chicken that they're all playing with one another um it's really kind of weird and
yeah man i just there's like a lot of subjective garbage and nonsense you know in price there's
no subjectivity to price like i mean price is very it's you know it's clear cut dry um and it's very objective so i'm gonna stick to that i think
definitely going into 2026 a lot of people probably overthought you know season or going
into excuse me 2025 a lot of people definitely overthought seasonality. I think people were too quick to look at,
you know, behavioral perspectives. I think you just need to kind of take price action day by
day right now. Question is, is there actual demand within this market? I've mentioned that on the
space yesterday. We'll see. I'm on bullish on virtuals if we do see
continuation of the upside so it's like okay are we getting a you know a high time frame bottom
which i think is probably the least likely uh least likely scenario in my opinion i think it's
also the camp interestingly enough that is that the least amount of people are in and for people
listening and for a trader perspective everybody's like oh you gotta you know go with the side that
you know the least amount of people are thinking because you know the whole contrarian viewpoint
and and you know the the past least least taken is the most probable yada yada yada uh i get that you know frame of thinking i'm
usually kind of trying to be in some sort of you know similar thought process or camp but as of
right now i just see like the bottom and i'm like there's no way that these are the lows right and
i talked about it on the live stream on YouTube earlier this week.
And I'm like, if you leave a low that looks like this, you're never, ever, ever coming back to these prices.
And a bottom that looks very similar to it is before we had the run up in 2020, the lows before the ETF pump and also coming out of post-COVID, which we never have seen those prices again,
right? Those prices have never, ever, ever been seen again, right? So like I said, it's these
lows are either you will never see them ever again in your life or they are for the taking,
right? They're ripe for the taking. And I think that they're more from a probabilistic standpoint going to be visited again.
And so the question is, are we in consolidation right here?
Or are we in a relief rally?
After what we saw going into this week and except back within the range, I'm back in
the camp that this is consolidation.
I was in the camp of relief rally.
So that's going to be pretty interesting.
I see grants back up here.
We had a fantastic talk yesterday and, you know,
to all everybody, anybody who's here in the space yesterday,
we had O'Hare's, you know, secret, secret all to count up.
That was an absolute pleasure.
It was funny talking about bananas and the whole nines so
what would i expect for altcoins here i know i haven't touched on ethereum quite a bit
you got to be pretty careful in altcoins regardless of the fact if you look at bitcoin
dominance it's gone straight up in a straight line since the lows um in 20 what was it like in late 21 early 22
somewhere around there um bitcoin dominance has gone straight up in a straight line and that was
in a bull market mind you and now what we're potentially entering is a bear market and from
a cyclical perspective altcoins do not outperform Bitcoin in a bear market.
At least I should say Bitcoin dominance does not necessarily give altcoins a lot of relief in bear markets.
And because of that, I've been kind of playing with this idea in my head.
kind of playing with this idea in my head what if we've just been in a bitcoin consolidation
or consolidation phase really since those like 22 lows we had in bitcoin dominance
and you don't see that quote-unquote alt season till like 27 28 and we go to like 80 80 percent
on bitcoin dominance or not 80 percent on Bitcoin dominance, excuse me, 70% on Bitcoin dominance here, before you really get kind of like the rotational factors that we've all, you know, learned to love and enjoy that altcoins flourish from.
And that would be an extension of kind of this like prolonged cycle theory, per se.
of kind of this like prolonged cycle theory per se.
Now, at that point,
you would think that interest rates would be lower,
which obviously Bitcoin and all coins
are reflexive liquidity conditions.
We all know cost of capital would be cheaper,
yada, yada, yada,
which would, you know, again,
be a signal for that quote unquote alt season.
And yeah, what if we just had to just like
wait around for five or six years before we saw like the alt season again um that would be
pretty interesting granted i'm not saying we didn't have like the quote-unquote alt season
because there was plenty of runners on chain like there was plenty of names that did amazing right
you just had to be optimistic
and you just had to kind of be forward thinking and looking.
And if like your thesis didn't play out,
you just had to be able to shift, right?
That's called being a trader.
So I'm interested where we're at.
I've got a lot of ideas I'm kind of playing with.
It's one of those things where i'm just trying to be really flexible in my like my ideas and
like my structuring and i think that anybody who's like successful in anything they do
uh in you know life and in business kind of puts out those contingency plans and they understand that okay if you just if you see
one area if you see one path obviously not succeeding or you see one path is not going
to be the route to success you can just systematically shift to the next thing um
i think that's kind of the perspective i'm trying to take into 2026, learning a lot
from 2025, writing down, you know, the lessons I learned coming out of 25, um, and just trying
to get better.
I mean, the biggest thing for me coming into 26 is, you know, just continue to do what
I'm doing and be consistent.
And I think it's, you know, no matter who you are and what you're doing, if you can
be consistent and be systematic in your approaches to things, you're probably going to do all right.
The scariest step and the most important part is just starting anything.
So with that being said, I'll pass it back on over. I've been yapping.
Yeah, you're good, man. I actually went ahead and put up a poll up here on the nest
uh do you think btc ends the week above 95k that would essentially mark us to new year-to-date highs
and also monthly month highs um that would be like a 60-day high for btc and i think once you
get above 97 i think you probably zoom well past 100.
But yeah, I saw Grant the audience, sent him an invite.
Is there anything else that you guys want to talk about?
I'm pretty much cooked for today until tomorrow when we get that jobs report.
But I guess I'll pass it over to Grant.
Grant, what's going on?
I went and bought a bunch of bananas yesterday.
Organic or non-organic?
Both.
I wanted to splurge, and it didn't break me.
Yeah, that's probably the most stable.
By the way, the bananas, I paid, I think, 47 cents a pound,
and they're still better than the ones i bought five years ago for 30
because the ones this week feed me and the ones five years ago don't
so i my hope for everybody is i hope you get over yesterday's prices because they're probably
not coming back and they certainly won't feed you that that that was uh an interesting discussion that we had yesterday with O'Hare's alt account.
That was definitely O'Hare, man.
They sound the same.
They speak the same.
Except one is bullish on BTC and the other remains quite skeptical.
What was his name?
Like Dr. Scrooge McBitcoin or something like that? Yeah, it was Dr. Scrooge mcbitcoin or something like that
bitcoin
yeah i mean you run into some characters on here man uh we haven't had o'hare up in his um
og profile i think the last time we had him on was that space that we did on the 23rd the day before uh christmas eve but um yeah you
can do a plethora of things with bananas you can mash them up and blend them you can make plantains
you can just eat them just regularly uh i like to have bananas like during my training session they actually work uh just as well as um amino acids but um
grant what are your predictions for 2026 as far as like market directionality yeah i think we're
going higher uh i think the stock market's going to go higher for whatever crazy reasons i just
think there's a lot of liquidity coming to the marketplace. I think if rates go down, you know, money sitting in money markets moves.
I think Trump's going to over-deliver and surprise a lot of people on what he's going to do for the economy.
So a lot of that nonsense in here yesterday was, you know, all anti-Trump stuff. But the reality is tariffs have not inflicted the kind of pain on the American public that
everybody said they would.
Those are choice decisions to make.
And you're going to see a lot of tax refunds.
Rates are going to come down.
Money's going to hit the U.S. economy like it never has.
I think Donald Trump just continues to be underestimated.
Yeah, we also have the Fed balance sheet trickling up the first time in over four years.
I think that's one thing that people are kind of underestimating, especially with Powell leaving office here in a few months.
Do you think we end off the
year at like 1% interest rates like Trump wants to get us to? Oh man, if we go there, if we go
that low, it's going to be crazy. There's tremendous amounts of pent-up demand in the real estate
space, both residential and commercial. There's a lot of commercial debt that needs to be
refinanced. And if that happens, man, it produces a lot of fees debt that needs to be refinanced and if that happens man it
it produces a lot of fees for mortgage brokers and real estate professional real estate brokers
you know i'm not talking about you know the jane that sells two houses a year but these guys that
depend on selling hundreds of billions of dollars for real estate a year at the commercial levels
a lot of that activity is going to happen that produces a lot of fees.
And then there's a residential, if that loosens up, that'll generate a lot of mortgage fees,
a lot of new capital into the marketplace. When people buy homes or trade homes,
they buy furniture. So it would be that part of the marketplace is completely frozen,
has been for years. And so it's going to be a money-making bonanza for
pretty much every sector of the market did you say bonanza or banana but we'll call it the banana
zone grant this is the a banana market i don't know if you ever heard a ralph paul talking about
the banana zone but it's basically like uh a period in the market where everything melts up all at once.
But if we're talking about like fruits and veggies, I would say we're about to enter an avocado market because, you know, avocados are green.
And yeah, this acceleration with the Fed balance.
Did we lose Wabi or is it just me?
He just cut out. Yeah, yeah.
He cut out. Wabi, can you hear us?
No, I think he's cooked.
I think the whole avocado talk got to his head i think it got his cholesterol a little high i think the big question is like this could be one
of those years where real estate outperforms the s&p 500 in bitcoin i think the last time
you saw it was 2022 and actually the last time before i could be wrong but was
2018 so that's kind of you know if you believe in the four-year before I could be wrong, but it was 2018. So that's kind of,
you know, if you believe in the four year cycle, this could be one of those years. It's been a few
years since real estate's done strong against S and P 500. I have a feeling this could be one of
them. So yeah, because it's all, I mean, obviously if you look at real estate, the last two decades, I think, even with the 08 crash, overall real estate from 2000 to 2010 outperformed the S&P 500, not by a ton, obviously, with 08.
But I think the previous decade before then overall was the 1970s.
Obviously, it depends where you bought real estate, but that's kind of an overall thing. So I do think this decade overall, since it's in such a bull
market for Bitcoin, S&P 500, those things will outperform real estate overall during this decade.
But if you follow that pattern, I'd be curious, you know, seeing the next recession, the 2030s
could be where real estate outperforms, you know, outperforms S&P 500 for that decade.
And probably, I hate to say it, but it could be Bitcoin as well, because Bitcoin's had two great
decades. I mean, I would assume you'd see a it could be Bitcoin as well, because Bitcoin's had two great decades.
I mean, I would assume you'd see a bad decade for Bitcoin eventually,
maybe the 2030s.
Not that bad, though.
Not that bad.
I don't want to be that pessimistic.
I think Wabi, he just texted me, he's having issues.
Space is rugged and he can't get back in here.
I mean, so he can keep going.
And if he gets back, then awesome.
If not, our space is just momentarily shut off.
I mean, you guys kind of get the gist.
This platform, for whatever reason, they can't figure it out.
And they have billions of dollars to play with.
But with that being said, yeah, man, I mean, I would love nothing more for the real estate market to do well.
And the reason why is because if the real estate market does well, that is one of the largest wealth generators for the American people.
Right. I mean, Trump talked about it.
You know, somebody had mentioned on one of the press conferences and they asked him, you know, would you be would you be interested?
And I think it was building, homes or doing whatever. And he
said he wants to keep real estate asset prices high, specifically for homes and for the older
generation. And not only that, if you look at the majority of the middle class, if you're able to
reduce their notes at the end of the month, that's huge for
them, right? It means more disposable income. It means more spending. It means more stimulus for
the economy. And things go round and round and everybody kind of eats in a way. So in a way,
they can bring down rates. they can increase these underlyings
and the value of them.
It's gonna be beneficial for just about everybody.
Now, I will say you do have to be careful.
The reason why I say that is because
there is an entire generation that is largely getting priced
out of single family homes.
So, you know, that increase in real estate prices
does help momentarily in the long run.
It's not a fix, but we can,
and we probably will deal with that later down the road.
I do think too, that if you see, and Grant talked about this yesterday, but there's going to be, you know, a big, big, big surge in regards to, and similar to what we saw in the 1950s, where you're building millions and millions and millions of homes.
and millions and millions of homes well what goes in those homes uh from a electrical perspective
copper i think the copper chart looks so good uh industrial metal it plays a key part in
electrification in industry in homes um and that chart looks amazing and i don't see why copper
can't just do you know what a silver did i don't see why it can't
do uh what a gold just did a little bit different dynamics and characteristics uh but some similarities
um and i'm gonna kind of keep my eye on that and definitely long copper um ticker cper i think it's
the united states copper index fund i believe is the whole the whole name uh
tracks the commodity price so definitely like that um besides that uh evan i see you off mute
what's going on no yeah no good points there i was gonna say too i would ask all you guys i mean
what do you guys think about i think energy right now like i was looking at occidental petroleum
that looks pretty
good. ExxonMobil, I mean, I'm not somebody who looks at energy stuff constantly, but those look
kind of attractive. And my guess is that when you see kind of people get bored with gold and silver,
copper could be one that people gravitate to. Uranium's been doing pretty good. I'm not a
precious metal expert by any means, but people may gravitate towards those a little bit. In addition to those,
I think energy, I mean, Buffett owns Occidental Petroleum. That could be one that's been,
looks like a decent deal right now. Even ExxonMobil looks like it's breaking up higher. So
I could see first six months of this year, maybe the whole year, I could see energy, see some jumps.
I mean, especially if S& P 500 is kind of flat,
especially if those are kind of boring, I could see energy definitely having some movements.
It would probably, um, well, it depends, but I mean, you're looking at the thing with Powell
too, is you're looking at like betting odds on poly market, 60% chance of no cuts at all until
Powell's gone, even through April. So I don't know with those coming up,
I think there could be, if there's a narrative for, look, I don't think we're going into recession.
I don't think anything's going to be that bad, but if there's a narrative for, you know,
a typical 10%, you know, percent correction for the S and P 500, it's probably going to be some inflation fears and probably going to be stuff of that nature. So I could see energy seeing,
seeing a jump there. I mean, in terms of like what looks attractive to
me right now, like AI looks pretty overheated. I would say NASDAQ looks pretty overheated.
It's starting to lag behind the S&P 500. S&P 500 itself, price safer than a lot of other things,
but even that looks overheated to a certain extent. Bitcoin, I'd want to give it a few more
months to really see. Hopefully we can get a little bit
better deals. But what really looks attractive at the moment, real estate, if you can get a good
deal, if you're smart about it, and that's pretty much always how it is for real estate, but
energy, man, like Oxnard, Petroleum, ExxonMobil, some of those look attractive right now.
Yeah, I agree. CPG, you're off mute real quick on evan's points yeah chevron exxon both
look fantastic at least the charts look fantastic um i know there's marathon 2 which has the largest
refineries in the gulf um definitely something to kind of keep your eyes on besides that, PG, what's going on?
Hey man, I was actually
listening to what you were just talking about a couple minutes ago
and I'm curious if you're, if you like copper
where it is
and I don't know how how where you think gold is in its run uh personally it's like
i don't know i think it looks a bit exhausted and i wouldn't be surprised to see some rotation but
also i agree with you on the on the copper being part of the infrastructure, energy play, things ramping up in that space.
And I'm just curious your thoughts, if you look at the chart, if you look at copper priced in gold on a monthly chart and then line it up with Bitcoin.
Curious if you have ever looked at that,
because generally when copper finds its bottom against gold
and it starts running up, it just has lined up perfectly,
beautifully with the last few business cycles.
last like few business cycles uh it's also basically the same exact chart as the uh ism
uh um you know uh what's what's that chart the isa manufacturing yeah exactly i was gonna yeah
i was gonna say is usually the reason so usually copper is like the risk on signal in the metal group, right?
Yeah.
Expansion, buildings.
Yeah.
So, I mean, it makes sense that if you're seeing, you know, usually if you're seeing copper do well, you're usually seeing kind of like a broader risk on environment do well. I have not paired those two versus one another.
It's an interesting point you make.
I'll check that out when I get home.
And if you look at the Copper chart,
one chart that looks very, very, very similar to it right now is XMR or Monero.
So there's a few charts that look pretty similar.
Monero also looks like Silver before silver had its big parabolic run
we did just see zcash obviously self-implode uh hit the self-destruct button and um you know if
zcash is kind of like leaving the fray and they're gonna have issues you know that's not a good look because when projects or people or whoever you have one shot in this industry
if you miss you miss terribly uh and your reputation for the large part is probably done
um and and so you know if we see this like you know because crypto and and you know people who trade these markets they're very
finicky beings right they're very sensitive um and if you do them wrong once they're probably
never going to come back to you right it goes with tickers like i said projects um people they
follow and listen to whoever right so zcash kind of self-imploded um what does that open up the door for it does open
up the door for monero and monero from what i have heard is like the true privacy coin i haven't done
a ton of fundamental research on that so we'll see if that uh we'll see monero benefits from
benefits from just what occurred in Zcash, but I just wanted to bring up that chart comparison.
just what occurred in zcash but i just wanted to bring up that chart comparison
Yeah, I mean, I wanted to just mention that copper frickin, I mean, if you look at that
monthly chart that somebody mentioned, oh, man, I mean, you just got to be careful with it's kind
of like buying all coins, you know, I mean, like, like, gold is your Bitcoin, you know, silver,
silver is your Ethereum. And then these other ones are kind of like all coins, because it just keeps
bleeding generally,
you know, over bleeding against gold.
So I do think it looks enticing.
I do think it's going to definitely jump against gold.
But what I'll say is like,
be careful with anything outside of like gold and silver.
Like for a precious metals portfolio, like I would not go more than like 10 or 20% copper
at the absolute max.
Yeah, and to, I mean, to that point as well i mean copper is an industrial
metal right so it generally i mean evan you did say it's kind of like an altcoin it is in a way
where the window of opportunity you have for appreciation is is a little bit more finite
versus gold um now do i think gold's run is over i don't want to bet against gold and the
reason why i say that is because china and russia and the brinks are trying to de-dollarize um and
they're fleeing you know they're letting uh the treasuries they own run off uh and they're just
you know and they're buying tons of gold right and so who knows when that buy pressure really
will subside um if ever so you could just see it interestingly
enough for like the next like five years uh just constant swap on on gold and the thing could go to
like like twelve thousand dollars an ounce uh and that wouldn't shock me like you know so just kind
of keeping my eyes on that.
And that's kind of my thoughts, too, with like copper.
Copper, even though, yes, it has small windows of opportunity,
it's actually very stable from a pricing perspective for the most part.
Real. I'm back, guys. Adrian, what's going on man how are you doing well man i was actually trying
to get up here when you guys were talking about real estate um just kind of noticing a lot of the
the a lot of the there's like 16.9 billion in uh cmbs's or the commercial mortgage-backed
securities that are maturing here in January.
And what I was going to talk with was with Grant too, because I know he's noticing a lot of these
defaults that are coming through. And with a lot of these maturities, it's pretty much just going
to, I think some of them are probably going to be kicked down the road, refinanced. But I mean,
I think a lot of them are in that special servicing section right now. I was going to talk more about what that might do to the overall market. As we know, anybody being here long enough
through the GFC, it's always kind of a shit show when real estate takes a dump.
Going back to the topic of crypto or alt season, I know for me, I'm a little disappointed
in kind of this run that didn't happen.
But I don't know, man.
I think it might still happen.
I think there's a lot of blockchains and tokens that are building a lot of cool shit and some of these ETFs inflows that are actually looking pretty good.
So just wanted to kind of add to that conversation a little bit.
Prometheus, have we talked about alt season, man't i think i just had it there for a click
boy i i will tell you the last time i thought about all season was pre-10-10
yeah and then that went out the window pretty pretty quickly pretty quickly
it's gonna take a minute for that liquidity to come back yeah i think everybody got wiped out dude i wouldn't say everyone i just think like the
people make that like are in charge of because the thing with all coins man is that they're just
contracts um market makers are given a batch of liquidity uh to run up these things exchanges
prop them up with the fees that they make.
All season happens because exchanges make them happen.
And when exchanges blow themselves out,
just like what Binance did,
that liquidity takes time.
They need to make fees.
And that's usually like every two to three quarters,
they get those fees and they decide what they want to do with those fees, pay themselves, twop it into their coin.
For example, like Casper caught a huge bid in 2023 and right when Casper topped out, Pepe started going crazy.
I find that so, so like so so like so so ironic dude like the the exact top for caspa when it ran all throughout 2023 and then it peaked out in like early feb 24 that's when pepe really
started to go ballistic and um then when pepe topped had that that second top at 6 bill in May.
That's when you saw Solana stuff going crazy.
Most altcoins are just garbage, though.
They're just rotational stuff.
Everything is a psyop for alts.
Probably for at least the next 10, 15 years.
It took tech almost 30 years to have established names.
I think the NASDAQ, that ETF got created in 1973, early 70s, mid-70s. And then it wasn't
until Post.com where you knew the winners. So that's like 30 years almost. You put that into crypto terms,
we'll call it 20. So maybe in like five to 10 years, we'll know which altcoins, whether it's
Chainlink, I don't really know. I'm kind of exhausted in hearing the same stupid names
getting brought up over and over and over again for what alts are going to survive,
because it creates this like weird complacency with crypto more participants where they just swap the same asset that's basically been flatlined against the entire market rather than seeing the opportunities that are in front of them right now.
That time will come at some point. that will have like a forever swap in them like a Google does or a Netflix or an NVIDIA or whatever.
Like so many people would have missed all the compounding that has been done.
Crypto is an asset class meant to be traded outside of BTC.
And it's going to take a minute for that to change.
Maybe Hyperliquid and ETH andath and soul right i think those are the winners
um but uh yeah i'm not sure if like alt season happens at least in how it's happened in the past
like 1721 happened for a minute just because like this industry has a way of throwing rocks or stones in a glass house, right?
Whatever that term is, right?
I think it's like throwing rocks at a glass house.
Crypto loves to just butcher itself.
Its leaders love to implode the industry they operate in so they can gain self-control um that's what sbf did
that's what the cz dude did um yeah yeah there's probably going to be like at least
one brutal bear for crypto before trump leaves us um probably the same magnitude as last year in Q1,
but the drawdown probably a lot more, I think.
But as far as time, I don't think bear markets are going to last
over 8 to 10 months anymore.
And we've seen previews of that over the last 10 years.
Any drawdown that's happened in equities doesn't
really last for more than like eight months. 2020 didn't really last long. Q1 of last year
didn't last long. And Q1 last year had that same usual bear market, 22, 23% for the S&P, almost 25% for the NASDAQ.
Mega Cap Tech drew down by like 50%. And crypto didn't really draw down as much because crypto is kind of reliant on equities.
I don't really agree that equities are reliant on crypto.
I think that's just more of a contrarian thought.
Gain some buzz on that.
But I'm just going to go ahead and wrap up here, man.
It's been a great show.
I want to thank everyone that came up here.
Shout out to Uncle Grant Cardone for coming on.
Prometheus, Evan, Adrian, thanks for coming in.
Thank you, thank you.
And for those that are listening and you've enjoyed the stream,
if you guys have enjoyed this space over the last
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Shout out to my Lord and Savior Jesus Christ for allowing me another day of health.
I'll talk Marcus with you all.
I really appreciate talking about these topics with you all
and definitely don't take any of this for granted.
So with that being said, I'm going to go ahead and sign off here.
Peace out, guys.
Bye-bye. Take care. granted so with that being said i'm going to go ahead and sign off here peace out guys bye bye take care
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