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Market Talk- HUGE MOVE ON BTC INCOMING!! Crypto about to shock people?
Recorded: July 7, 2025 Duration: 1:25:21Space Recording
Short Summary
In a lively discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored the recent surge in market activity, driven by significant price movements and strategic partnerships. The conversation highlighted the bullish sentiment surrounding upcoming regulatory changes and the potential for growth in the crypto space, particularly as the dollar enters a structural downtrend.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. I'm so excited. Oh, no. I get up. And nothing to do with me now.
You gotta talk.
I've seen the jump so now.
And I know.
Baby, just how you feel.
I get up.
I get up. Oh Oh, you said that baby how you been? You said that baby how you been? You said that baby how you been?
You said that baby how you been?
You said that baby how you been?
You said that baby how you been?
You said that baby how you been?
You said that baby how you been?
You said that baby how you been?
You said that baby how you been?
You said that baby how you been?
You said that baby how you been?
You said that baby how you been? You said that baby how you been?
You said you don't know, you won't know
Until you're feeling well
Can't you see what I'm saying?
It's a little bit of a change
I can't, I don't know what I'm saying It's not a change. It's not a change. It's not a change.
It's not a change.
It's not a change.
It's not a change.
It's not a change.
It's not a change.
It's not a change.
It's not a change.
It's not a change.
It's not a change.
It's not a change. It job. Good job.
Good job.
Good job.
Oh, my God.
Good job.
Good job.
Good job.
Good job.
Good job.
Good job.
Good job. Good job. Thank you. I I
I I Oh Guys, welcome back.
Welcome back.
Spread, Donnie, Palos.
Great to be here with you all.
All of you fine, ladies and gentlemen, here in the audience.
Welcome back to Market Talk, brought to you by BecauseBitcoin.
My name is Wabi. Happy Monday or happy Tuesday, wherever you are.
Hope you all had a fantastic, long weekend.
We did have some insane price action on chain, especially this morning.
Donnie, Donnie, you did it again man what
what uh what a candle man what an absolute candle man it's crazy what uh what circle did today they
decided to sue a meme coin circle group a stock that i am insanely bullish on they decided to
to uh sue a meme coin and said meme coin ended up pumping within 10 minutes.
I think like almost 30 million worth in volume, just absolutely skyrocketed price.
And you got to love it, man.
You got to love it.
But just talking about the indices, which is what I usually like to start off with,
we're seeing a pullback to start off the week after essentially up only for two weeks straight.
And something to take note of something that I've realized is that
at the start of every quarter over the last, I would say, 12 months,
at the start of every quarter, within the first week,
usually between the 6th and the 8th, there's usually a trending move.
And since October, it's been to the upside.
Quarter 4, October 7th, we pumped.
I think even on the 7th of January, we had we had a little bit of a pump. April, we had a huge pump
as well. Right. I think it was the day after we had bottomed out of 73 K. We immediately spiked
up to about 80 K. So we'll see, man. We'll see. We have the big, beautiful bill that was
officially signed by President Trump. And that is essentially pro-growth. That is pro-markets,
despite of whatever the Fed might do, which I kind of have a feeling that quantitative
tightening might be coming at an end, especially when you have record unemployment and you have CPI coming
close to an official two-hand or perhaps even sub-2% later on this quarter. Typically in the year,
you start to have the lowest CPI prints typically by September, given that quarter two is usually a slowdown for all businesses across the country, really.
It's usually only quarter four where CPI starts to tick back up a little early Q1.
But if we're going to get some fire prints at 2% or perhaps sub 2%, it's probably going to be this quarter, which would probably lead to a rate cut.
But we'll see what Powell does in that
regard. But the action that we're seeing on chain on Bonk, which is kind of what I want to discuss,
is very, very awesome. We have a useless going to near 300 mil. And anytime you have a new asset
on chain, specifically on Sol that runs to those levels, it serves as a liquidity injection to the entire ecosystem.
And you end up having these plethora of opportunities.
And so when you see Bitcoin, which just had its highest weekly close ever yesterday, and we're seeing the S&P still above all-time high,
same thing with the Qs and all these other mega cap tech stocks outside of the indices like a hood, then you have to say, all right, when does crypto catch up?
And I do have a suspicion that crypto catches up with haste sometime this week while equity
markets potentially consolidate above their previous all-time highs from earlier this year in February.
And we've seen this before many, many times where equity markets and even commodities like gold
might outperform majors in crypto. And then when you start seeing a little pullback in the equity
market, that's usually when crypto turbocharges. And then when equities pick back up, it all
turbocharges at once. Whenever another asset class leads to the upside or the downside
there's usually some sort of synergy that intermingles at some point uh you never have
one market just going up only and the other one down only for an extended period of time
or at least that hasn't happened in crypto since late 2014 when the queues were in price discovery and Bitcoin was nuking from like 400 bucks all the way to 150.
We're ultimately bottomed out. But either way, I want to welcome up spread Donnie.
I see Afro here as well. I'm going to send him an invite.
Chill should be here probably in the next like 10, 15 minutes, 20 minutes or something like that.
So, guys, before we officially get started, I hope you're all feeling great. be here probably in the next like 10 15 minutes 20 minutes or something like that so guys before
we officially get started i hope you're all feeling great we have an insane show for you
all today filled with exclusive content that you won't see or not see but hear anywhere else uh
yeah these spaces man they're only audio i hope at some point i'm able to actually live stream
and show my screen
with these spaces but either i want to welcome you all spaces are recorded as always but before
we officially get started and cook for you guys over the next 45 minutes to an hour and bring you
all the good takes all the good alpha that i'm sure a lot of you have been have been hungry about
and eager to to listen to over the last five days,
given that we had no shows on Thursday and Friday.
If you guys can go ahead and show some love to the space,
the best way to do that, of course, is by clicking the Spaces tab.
And then right up above on the Nest, you'll see a little link that says x.com slash i slash spaces.
And guys, please, please, please smash the like like button if you're happy to be here smash
up the like button if you love this market hit that repost button smash that retweet button
whatever you want to call it as it does a number of things helps bring more eyes and ears to the
show helps get more people in here brings more awareness of the brand and of course i'd be very
much appreciative and it takes uh essentially no
effort but uh you guys always do such a great job at that so i want to thank you all for coming here
whether you're here live in the audience or listening to the replay grateful for every single
one of you that tune into these shows whether it's uh spaces or youtube or uh our newest twitch
stream ape time or if you guys tune in to my personal Twitch and Kick streams.
I want to thank you all if you guys are coming in from over there.
And we're going to go ahead and get to cooking.
Donnie, guys, he survived a sickness,
and he recuperated a hell of a lot quicker than I did.
I recently had COVID for like the second time in five years,
and that nearly took the wind out of me, man.
But Donnie, a long green candle, and then Donnie is just back up to speed.
He's had a hell of a morning,
and excited to have him back up here after almost a week.
So guys, get ready.
Strap yourselves in for a good time let's go ahead and uh get to
rolling with today's uh stream of market talk so donnie man how are you feeling the setup is here
the july melt up the summer melt up and uh thinking about doing a video to document this
because you know we do so many spaces that sometimes we say so many things that
the the message can kind of get messed around a little bit and i would like to have a video where
you know we can look back perhaps a year two years three years from now and say dang
this was before that massive massive melt-up happened you you know, the melt-up bill. And of course,
one of the main things is Trump pushed tariffs all the way to the first week of August. So he's
just going to push and push and push these things until at some point Powell stops quantitative
tightening and cuts rates. That is the ultimate red tape cutting event. That is the that is that is the ultimate red cut red tape cutting event that is
the ultimate deal that is the art of the deal just pushing extending these tariffs until pow
is like all right let's go ahead and give these people a cut so what's going on man i'm starting
it off with you as always do brother hey bro thanks for having me back on yeah i was feeling terrible over the weekend
with uh covid and stuff it's mainly the um the fever and all that that you get from um that
virus that's so annoying but luckily that only lasted literally one night and then from there
i've just kind of had like you know blocked those little bit of a sore throat and stuff so
not too bad uh yeah it definitely wasn't like the first time that
i had it which honestly that first time it lasted like three weeks i was like bedridden it was
terrible but yeah it felt like it was gonna be like that again but yeah i'm just glad it didn't
last that long and uh yeah the the remedy of the day today was uh that coin man oh it's so good to
see it at 16 mil i was actually asleep so so I couldn't even sell most of my bag
at the highs. I still managed to clip a decent amount out
because I had actually a ton of supply of the coin.
And I was mainly just happy for my Discord because
when the market's dry and stuff like that, super boring and quiet,
you're waiting for your bags to go up.
And it's
just torture waiting and waiting because these markets can drag on right these are like actual
macro things that need to change in the world for the for your shitcoin bag to go up right so it's
very hard to like comprehend all that and then the emotions can get to you and yeah i gave them this
trade like how long ago maybe 10 days ago or something like that. I just had a strong gut feeling about like sort of a new narrative
building around like on-chain stocks.
Just because one, the stock market's doing well.
Sol was like, I think they started offering,
being able to buy stocks on their blockchain.
So there's potential for this to kind of ignite some sort of on-chain heat
around these sort of meme stocks,
literally memeing stocks.
And yeah, this one stood out to me
because it was literally just a circle.
I found it so funny now that Circle had their IPO
and it was super successful and all that kind of stuff.
And yeah, it just ended up pretty much 100Xing
from where most of the Discord bought.
And I woke up this morning and a lot of them had made like five, six figure bags, literally
out of dust, which is just, that makes me more happy than even myself winning.
Like I was literally up like over 200k on this trade at the top and, you know, barely
even cashed out any of that.
Still cashed out like five figures.
But yeah, it's just when i see other
people winning huge amounts especially in like a dead market i don't know to me it makes me feel
way better than even myself winning because you know i'm doing all right and i know a lot of people
right now are struggling in the market so you know seeing my friends and people in the discord
uh you know printing off a call like that just makes me feel better and so yeah the vibes
are high today but you know regardless of all of that with the on-chain stuff the actual market
itself i'm super bulled up man like i've been built up for ages uh ever since the bottom as well
and it's just like we've said from the bottom it's been incrementally confirming what the playbook
is going to be for the next you know six to 18 months
potentially even longer moving forward but you know that's kind of like a decent time frame to
look ahead to not look too far ahead right because a lot can happen in between markets are cyclical
liquidity is cyclical so you can't get you know too ahead of yourself but it's been confirming
and you know you should be getting more bullish as each day keeps going past as these
things confirm. And as the time keeps ticking, as the Trump admin needs to deliver these economic
positive things to the voter base so they can continue being voted in and things like that.
And you can literally hear them stressing, not stressing their concern, but kind of stressing
their concern that they need to win
votes. They keep mentioning that. So that is a very key signal as to the timeline being in our
favor, because they need to start delivering these economic results. And, you know, they're getting
the bills signed. They had the SLR exemptions confirmed through the Fed. And, you know, Trump
wants interest rates, not only down 1% or 2%, he wants them down 3%.
And then he was entertaining the idea of having negative interest rates
where they pay you.
He said he likes that a lot.
And it's just that's so funny.
And that's so bullish as well because he's obviously,
whether he gets them down to negative or not,
it's not the actual signal there.
It's the fact that he's going to go by any means necessary to ease financial conditions to deliver the results that they want
to deliver and they want to push growth they want markets to boom he said stock the stock market is
the old-time eyes we're going to keep it like that for a long time all this kind of stuff and these
are the people again the policymakers the dude signing. You need to take what they're saying for what they're saying, right?
You can't fade that kind of signal.
So if everything keeps confirming from here and it's liquidity positive,
and we know liquidity is 90% correlated to asset prices,
there's absolutely no way you could be bearish in front of what's ahead.
So the only counter argument to that is that you're seeing some
sort of imminent doom or
some sort of crack in the system
and you're going to be the guy to call it
and all this kind of stuff is just not
going to happen.
So again, every single
chart I made this post
and there's even more charts on top of this.
I made this post a few days ago.
Literally, it's just a thread of charts. I made this post a few days ago.
Literally, it's just a thread of charts.
There's probably, how many charts here?
Like 12 charts.
And you don't have to go through all of them.
But Bitcoin, it's ranging.
You've got liquidity resting above.
You had the fear capitulation, fear climax on the World War III scare to 98.2k, which again, we called before it happened,
was within $200 of actually nailing the bottom before it even happened. I said 98k,
went 98.2. And you have the massive buyback, which was also predicted.
Everything is setting up for a squeeze to new all-time highs, let alone the macro playbook,
which I've already said is literally confirming
itself to be liquidity positive um and they're wanting to you know keep these markets high and
rolling even higher so they can get voted in eth is looking extremely strong structurally on the
chart looks insane it looks ready to burst to the new uh level above obviously that's going to happen
when btc does uh the rip past these highs and um subsequently
that should start to roll bitcoin dominance you're seeing with any bit of strength that bitcoin uh
you know shows on its own chart eth is just putting in this that little bit more right which is you
know pulling btc uh dominance a little bit lower we also had dxy um nuking now a lot of people are
hopping on the dxy
sort of bandwagon now with uh yeah it's going lower and all this kind of stuff so potentially
may maybe you could see like a little bit of a bounce from these lows but i just think there's
way too much uh stuff weighing on this down that i actually think it just continues going lower
um and kind of my macro target for it has been sub 90 we'll see if we get there but essentially
if this keeps trending towards 90 from these levels with no significant bounce again we had
the world war three fighter barely bounced so i don't see what's really gonna you know make this
pull back uh and start rallying above 100 again there's not really too many things i can really
see so i'm thinking this
thing goes even lower and that's going to unlock the next batch of uh you know global liquidity
going higher as well which we know that's already had a very positive correlation um to you know
bitcoin and subsequently our bags from the lows when everybody was fading the dollar nuke and
liquidity going higher that every single narrative under the sun explaining why you fading the dollar nuke and liquidity going higher. They had every single narrative under the sun explaining why the dollar going down is actually bearish,
but it ended up being bullish, right?
So you can spin any narrative on top of everything and kind of sigh off yourself.
But if you can't see what the actual admin is wanting to push,
and you're getting blinded by all these other narratives,
then you're going to overthink and essentially end up in the mid-curve and not see the real playbook.
So DXY going lower, right? Global liquidity is going to trend higher if that happens.
And we haven't even priced in that entire nuke on the DXY rally. Now, people are worried if DXY
actually does start to bounce from these levels or that bounce that
it did have from about 97 to what is it 102 or 103 ish but as you can see that bounce on that chart
is so much smaller than the rally that we had leading up to the inauguration which was a huge
dxy rally and that dxy rally converted into a 30 correction on bitcoin right so this tiny little
bounce that we had is absolutely no chance that's going to equate to a 30 drop on bitcoin's chart
it's probably going to equate to something like 10 15 or maybe at the most 20 and that's a future
correction after we break the highs if we even do get that. So all of these charts are still yet to be priced
in on the Bitcoin chart. Again, like DXY is putting in fresh lows. And we saw what nuking
from those highs and just approaching 100 did for BTC from those lows. Like we literally up only
rallied all the way to a fresh new high. So again, the chart is building up on Bitcoin's chart
to squeeze that high.
We still haven't priced in this entire DXY nuke
and now it's going for a fresh batch
of global liquidity one more time.
I think the rally that follows this rally,
once this one is complete,
it's going to be probably somewhere upwards of 150k, right?
If this all, you know, plays out how it should,
which I think the odds are much higher
that it does play out,
bearing in mind all the macro factors,
then that it doesn't play out, right?
The only argument to that,
none of this is going to play out,
we're only going to tap like 120, 130,
is that, you know, there's some sort of're only going to tap like 120 130 is that you know
there's some sort of impending doom because i think the people that are calling for like cycle
tops and stuff they don't know what the implicate what the implications are of them saying that
bitcoin is about to go uh into a bear market right now they don't know like what that actually means
for the economic world as a whole right they just think chart go down because chart hit this number,
where it doesn't really work like that.
The rest of the charts on this post is basically all the ones that I've posted,
which is ETHPTC over DXY, total two over coin,
which that has a lot of catching up to do on the chart.
It's had crazy correlation the past year.
I don't see why this time is different even looking at you know some of the top alts right now
you know the utility alts and stuff they're all forming clean bottoms right clean bottoms people
are scared they're not even looking really at crypto it's super quiet spx at all-time highs
russell approaching key levels to the upside you know alg, algos, when the SPX or the Russell
start clearing these key levels,
they're key levels on the chart for a reason, right?
You literally have like algorithms
that will start to get triggers or flashes
when these levels get crossed saying,
wow, we're back to, you know, bullish essentially.
And that's what causes a lot of money to pour in right this
whole rally on the spx from the bottom you know some of the i don't know if these dudes are
trolling or they're doing it to like you know make their make their own positions or trades you know
better as in like psyoping people that are listening to them but this whole rally for the
spx people are calling for fresh new lows,
like from the bottom, literally.
It's going to roll.
It's going to go to fresh new lows.
It's going to roll.
It's just going to go over this level.
No, it actually might just deviate to high and then roll.
It just keeps going higher.
And that just shows that people are actually not positioned
or have not been positioned
because of this constant impending doom
that's being pushed essentially
everywhere on every media outlet. And they're going to be forced to capitulate as this macro
playbook keeps confirming itself. You literally had Trump sign the big, beautiful bill, which is
massively inflationary, which is bullish for our bags right and bearish for the dollar so
everything is pointing for risk to go higher uh even locally in crypto usdt dominance looks super
bearish the bitcoin and gold chart it looks super bullish we want that to go higher we know gold is
stalling out here we know btc still has to fulfill uh the entire rally that gold just put in.
Gold usually leads, liquidity also kind of leads or goes with it,
and then Bitcoin typically follows.
We haven't even had the entire rally that we're meant to have
relative to gold and how gold performed over the last few months or whatever.
That rally, to me, by the measurements of when it started
and when gold topped,
it's meant to go until about mid to late August for BTC.
So we still have five, six, seven, eight,
potentially even nine weeks of upside from here
that we need to price into the Bitcoin chart.
Now, if you look at any other rally in Bitcoin's chart,
other than like the cycle top of 21,
these moves to the upside,
they literally happen within like three to eight week time spans.
When it starts rallying hard, there's just no stopping it.
It has that very, you know, tight compression around the all-time highs
or before a significant
level on the chart to break out. Boom, you start going up only for three to, you know, eight weeks,
and everything blows up from there. It's literally, crypto is crazy like that. You wait
so many months for this three to eight week window where everything just multiplies like crazy.
And then from there, you can kind of gauge if the trend will continue or whatever.
Every other time until now, it's kind of just, you know, pumped. And then from there, you can kind of gauge if the trend will continue or whatever. Every other time until now, it's kind of just pumped, and then we've gone into a range,
pumped, and then we've gone into a range. But as the cycle gets deeper, as it gets more speculative,
as it gets more obvious that everything's going to go higher, these pumps and these corrections,
these consolidation periods, they can get shorter and shorter. So the pump will be super aggressive, but also the consolidation and correction following that
incrementally gets shorter over time
as it keeps getting more and more parabolic.
So I think that's what's coming next.
And there's no real chance to suggest otherwise,
even like DXY, like I said,
the 30% correction that we had
was caused by a massive DXY rally
to almost fresh new highs, right?
It went up to 110 or whatever it went up to.
We're absolutely nowhere near those levels at the moment.
And the rally that we had from, you know, 97 or whatever was tiny compared to that.
So there's no real crazy tightening of financial conditions that are you know kind of that you
can see ahead it's more so the opposite right you're having talks of massive rate cuts you're
having the deregulation of the banking system everything is pointing to more easing right so
this this is the part this is the part where everything gets exciting is basically the main
point of everything that i'm saying and every single chart is pointing that it wants to go higher so i don't know i don't
know why there's this impending doom uh being pushed everywhere you look because everywhere
that i'm looking it's looking insanely bullish to me like this is where you should be the most
pulled up the entire cycle it's never been more clear where everything is headed, to me at least. So yeah, I'm super excited.
I think it can start literally this week.
The chart is just so primed on the Bitcoin chart here.
Literally, you're waiting to just start squeezing through these highs.
It could happen any day.
The kind of latest date that I have would be around around the around the start
of august that's kind of the latest i can see this range uh holding out for that would kind of mean
that if we did were if if we were to hold out until then before we really start to run that
would mean we're probably going to set some sort of um higher low higher than the 98.2k drop. And you've got plenty of demand below at around
102.5, 106. And yeah, I think it's basically just those two zones. So it's one of those two zones,
you put in a higher low and start to keep building this uptrend before you get the breakout. But
we've stalled out at these highs for a while now.
I feel like it's going to happen sooner rather than later.
I would still bet that it's going to happen in the first,
around sort of the first half of July rather than the start of August.
We'll see.
Donnie, you know, man, what I've realized over the last few summers is
anytime we go into the later part of Q3, there's always a massive rally that happens.
After Q3, we had the Fed pause rally.
And then after Q3 of last year, we had the rate cut rally, followed by the election, the election cycle.
It's essentially these many bull markets that have happened over
the last couple of years and i think this next market that we're about to form here which started
at 74k btc and 90 soul is uh the pro growth cycle it's pro growth and the end of quantitative
tightening and yeah the setup is there man with
equities with where they're at right now we usually fall by a week or two and equities just recently
broke their old all-time high but something that i was discussing on one of my twitch streams is
the inflation adjusted all-time high and inflation adjusted from the SPX all-time high from January of 2022,
we're now barely going into price discovery.
And as far as the NASDAQ goes, we have a long ways to go
to break the inflation adjusted all-time high with the NASDAQ from the dot-com bubble.
And with Freddie May,
that stuff, the credit line you were discussing, I think when Grant Cardone was also on the show,
you guys elaborated on that. That is the start of the real cycle. And the fact is,
when people call crypto cycles, it's really just liquidity cycles. And if we want to talk liquidity cycles, we're coming towards the end of tightening and then we have to go into neutral and then dovish. We never just immediately switch over to dovish. We go to neutral.
looking right now that simply shifting to neutral which is essentially just one more rate cut maybe
one of 50 bips and the end of quantitative tightening that could take the s&p 500 to almost
7 000 and short term for myself and i said this one the s&p was at like 55 5600 uh short term spx i think is in a gap up to 6500 and then of course we have to
fulfill the mirad meme of the s the s&p 500 going to 6900 but long term i think end of q4 or q4 of
next year i think the s&p is going close to 9 000 and that's not a joke like i legitimately think the s p 500 is going near 9000 or 10 000
by the end of next year and for people that think that that is crazy or obscene or insane or anything
like that i would suggest for people to see some of the targets people have on meme coins.
That's insane.
I mean, you have the S&P 500 up 1,400 points, and some of these memes are trading lower than where they were trading last summer.
So the S&P 500 can continue to gap up while a lot of these alts still continue to bleed.
But when that liquidity tap turns on, I think that's when you see that gamma squeeze on the S&P.
Maybe it starts when the S&P is at like 7,000 or something like that.
And you see a huge quarterly gamma squeeze where the S&P 500 literally goes up 2,400 points on the S&P without direct stimulus to this economy.
We've been in an economy that takes away more rather than gives it over the last, I'd say over the last year and a half maybe, outside of what yellen did in treasuries which mainly only benefited mega mega cap tech like uh nvidia which of course came off the backs of uh the uh the chips
the chips bill and when you have the big beautiful bill passing and of course besant now about to do
what yellen did way back when i would say and. I think Yellen did backdoor QE.
I think it was in 2014 when she first got in.
2014, 2015.
It was mainly 2015 where she went bazookas with backdoor QE.
And there's a saying, right?
History never repeats itself, but it often rhymes.
And here we are, man.
Yeah, I pretty much agree with all of that, bro. It's like, if we're entering the expansionary phase
now, and the administration's plans are starting now, right? The bill was just signed. They're
about to deliver all of the things that they want to deliver to get voted back in to actually make
the economy better in their view, and all that kind of stuff. It doesn't just happen within two months, three
months, all of it's priced in and then it all goes to shit right after that. This is just not how it
works, right? It takes a long time for all of that to actually trickle through the economy.
The market will price it in as best as it can before it happens and as it happens and so on. So even with the current, like what you can see with forward-looking data for now,
it's still way longer than three months of upside or let's call it the cycle lasting.
There's just no way that I can see that everything wraps up in three months.
everything wraps up in three months.
It just doesn't make sense at all.
It just doesn't make sense at all.
It wouldn't make sense whatsoever.
It wouldn't make sense whatsoever.
But yeah, everything is pointing to 2026
being like a super strong year for markets
and starting from this year, right?
Starting from now, essentially.
And you're seeing it with, you know,
the stocks hitting all-time highs
and crypto getting ready to erupt here.
You'll be validated by the price.
The price is going to explode to the upside
and then everything will make sense.
But when it's all obvious and clear and everyone's like,
yeah, they're doing this, they're doing that,
then that's going to be many months down the line
and you're likely looking to take some profits there
when it's super obvious, comfortable and easy.
Well, right now, no one is really that bulled up overall in markets, to be honest,
like everywhere you look, it's just straight doom. I don't get it. But again, that's usually when
you're on the right side of the trade, even at that 74k low. amount of dms that i was getting from like honestly some top tier
traders uh analysts and everything and they're saying this time is different it was insane like
and i had to go against so many people that i literally learned from and look up to to you know
even post that thread literally the day that i was going to post it and i just stopped for like 10 minutes i was like am i not seeing something or should i even post this like post and i just
click post bang and it ended up being the right trade and it again to me it feels like because
everyone is just terminally online and doom seems to be the thing that everyone's addicted to it's
just so easy for people to get wound up in things that aren't really you know signal nowadays there's so much noise online it's so easy to get psyoped
by anything to the point where even like it has an effect on me when so many people are asking me
about you know these doom things and they'll send me articles of like these top dudes that are like
breaking down the doom scenario and i'm like i don't even want to look at it like i don't want to look at anyone
else's stuff i'm just going to post my stuff that's what i think and that's it i don't care
and it's ended up being right just ignoring all of the noise and it's the same right now like
just because the market has been slow for literally over the long weekend, people are now overthinking the entire cycle.
But what's actually changed?
Nothing at all.
It was just a quiet weekend with low volume and Bitcoin did nothing.
And today's stocks opened up a little bit red.
That doesn't change anything to the playbook that's been in the making since the Trump
admin pivoted from those April lows.
Nothing at all has changed.
That's a very real thing, man.
That is a very real thing.
Yeah, the market was closed for like three and a half days.
I know we closed early on Thursday.
And I mean, people really want to move like they want to bid and
we saw that over the weekend on chain on soul and uh we also have the the pump fun token having um
a public sale now so i think their token goes live next week or later this weekend
what do you think is going to happen with that?
Does anyone have any opinions on the pump fun token?
Fuck, I haven't really looked into it.
It just doesn't sound good to my ears, bro.
It seems like another major extraction event,
to be honest with you.
Yeah, I think so.
I don't think I'm touching that with a five-foot pole.
I mean, after you've made 800 mil or whatever the total is it's something
around that number i think 8 850 mil um it's just insane that you're gonna raise this amount of
money um and i don't really understand why you need this much money for like what they're trying to to do um
i think it's it's likely going to be a pretty uh
pretty like decimating uh couple days over on on chain land
i i can tell you why they do it
we have a saying in romania sorry to interrupt you
but the saying goes exactly like this the mother of stupid people is always pregnant I don't know why they do it. We have a saying in Romania. Sorry to interrupt you.
But the saying goes exactly like this.
The mother of stupid people is always pregnant.
So as long as there are stupid people around the world that they can extract more money from,
why shouldn't they do it?
It's the law of the jungle there.
Sorry to interrupt you.
No, I think that makes actually a lot of sense.
And by the way, Mr. Spread, I'm also Romanian, so it's good to hear that.
But yeah, I think that it's definitely not going to be good on-chain for a little bit until this passes.
I personally think it's just going to present more opportunities for certain uh assets
but um yeah and and it also feels a little bit desperate like you know now especially right after
what just happened over the last few days with bonk and all this stuff and then all of a sudden
on monday today uh they're coming out with the tg like it feels like they're rushing this to try to get in i mean
if you look at the volume metrics over the last few months it's like decreasing across every
single launch pad um obviously the market hasn't been great and when liquidity comes back it might
be um different but at the moment the numbers do not look good so it kind of feels like they're trying to rush this um as quickly as possible um before maybe they miss their window to uh do this this uh second
massive extraction yeah there's a couple of takes that that I'm saying from people on the timeline. They think it's either going to be like Hyperliquid, which I'm kind of like 50-50 on it,
where it launches at a high FDV or high market cap and it still runs,
or it ends up just being a slop launch like ApeCoin in Q2 of 2022, if you guys remember that.
I think it only pumped by a little bit
i think like two three acts and then it just omega dumped for all eternity they will not
they have the funds to pump it but they do i yeah they have enough they have enough firepower
and i have i think already all the big market makers are behind that already the deals are being made but to be honest man like we we we just started a bit
on chain and these are so stupid i mean they're so greedy yeah they're so bonkai
bonkai is um is basically murad back in september of last i genuinely believe that
like the echo bubble um of the uh believe in something that Mirad did with memes last year,
I think Bonk guy is that guy.
And whether this pump fun thing detracts value from it, I don't think it's going to steal what things like Useless and Bonk can do.
I mean, just look at the Bonk chart.
Bonk is the strongest
major if you compare it to other things on soul on chain like popcat or with or even things on
eth like pepe bonk is the strongest meme right now compared to farcoin even bonk looks extremely
good you take out today's daily highs i think the last high that it put in over the last 24 hours and it zooms past uh the high that it put in mid-may and there are a lot of tokens that
still aren't above their mid-may levels and if bonk gets rolling just take a look at what happens
anytime bonk goes into a big uptrend where you have momentum behind it look at quarter 4 23 quarter 1 24 quarter
four of last year anytime bonk gets moving it's generally a huge huge signal for all things on
chain and you have a huge narrative right which is uh bonk dot fun or bonk fun or let's bonk
whatever the platform is called and they've generated a ton of fees I think from the fees that they've generated they have a couple thousand soul in fees and they can pump that
right into the chart so you have people that are actually putting money back
into the ecosystem but I agree with pump fun being being actors that extract
more some more than they don't and i'm not even sure what the qualifications
are but there are some people that have said that the only way to qualify for the pump fun airdrop
is if you deployed a token that graduated which is so shitty that that would be pretty bad um
because i'm sure all of us here on on the panel and everyone listening to the show and everyone listening to the recording has bought a token over the last 18 months that ends with Pump.
I think that that should be a qualification.
If you've actually done volume on tickers that have graduated from PumpFun, not to quote it.
So what is the qualification again? I didn't understand exactly from what you said.
So right now, apparently, allegedly,
the only qualifications for the PumpFun airdrop
is if you deployed a token and it graduated
rather than the previous.
That's a scammer's paradise.
That's a scammer's paradise.
Like so many, like there were teams that that were deploying tens of thousands of tokens.
Oh my god.
Yeah, it's just going to go to MevBots at that point.
When in reality, I think a good qualification...
If you look...
Look, there was some statistics, some on-chain freak, and he made this calculation based on people that have bought in tokens that end in pump or have even deployed.
There were some statistics, some on-chain freak.
If they take the amount of fees that have been generated and the amount of money that they're raising, each wallet can qualify for an airdrop of like $50,000.
qualify for an airdrop of like 50,000. And at the very least, I'm hoping that they give
qualifications for people that have bought rather than extracted, right? Like if you deploy,
of course you qualify, but what about the people that have bought tokens during bonding or have
done volumes on tickers that end in pump? Like all the AI shitters from Q4 of last year,
most of them, they came from pump fun.
And I'm sure a lot of people here on this panel
and a lot of people listening to the show
have done volume on tickers that end in pump.
And so at the very least,
I'm hoping it ends up being like the Uniswap airdrop
from September of 2020.
And that was a pretty good airdrop to be honest but
those are my thoughts on that guys they will not they are too greedy fucks for that
i just wanna i just wanna say something from and pick it up from when donnie left it from where
donnie left it because i think that was a much more insightful discussion for what is to come.
Four months ago, I made the thread, and when DXY was around 105,
it's pinned on my profile.
And the Trump fractal, this is how I called it,
from last time when he took office,
it actually played out almost to the dot.
So back in March, in the beginning,
the potential target was for a minus 14 percent
drop and we dropped around 13 percent until now and yes we have extended to the downside and some
people saying are saying that is a crowded trade but today after like many many hours of research
i posted like my updated thread after four months in which I just laid out for the first time a monthly chart on euro dollar.
For the people who do not know, the dollar index is composed of other currencies weighted against the dollar.
So out of that basket, the euro has around 57, 57.6 percent, 58 percent.
Let's just round it up and if you look at the monthly chat that i posted
it shows that this is the first time after 17 years yes one seven so 17 years when euro dollar
is breaking out from a downtrend channel so from a multi-yearly downtrend channel so if we have a change of
character of the euro versus the dollar after 17 freaking years you better be sure that this
breakout is not going to last just half a year or one year most likely we are looking at
it's the first time when i'm saying this, maybe three to five years of downtrend for the DXY.
Of course, it's not going to be only down, right?
Most likely, we're also going to see some bounces.
We're going to see some relief rallies, and they're going to be very, very aggressive on the DXY.
But in my opinion, once we lose 95, and I think 89-90 comes very, very fast.
And I think a lot of people still have the PTSD.
I see also some traders that I really respect
and some analysts that I follow and respect.
And they have kept saying for the last few months
that dollar short is a crowded trade.
So if the dollar short was or is a crowded trade,
how about the euro short,
which was bleeding for 17 years but guys there
is something that is happening a lot of time on twitter a lot of people are focused only on the
day chart or intra day charts etc and i don't remember the last time when i saw a monthly
charter like on a very important asset like very rarely i see analysis on the monthly charts when
in fact we should start with the top-down analysis. It's like quarterly, monthly, or at least minimum monthly.
Monthly and weekly charts should be the layer, the foundation of what we do.
So when I saw that EURUSD is above 1.16 for the first time in 17 years,
like I said, for me, this is a a big big indication that most likely we started the
bear market on the dollar and like don said and you know wabi also said and a lot of people
most likely a lot of people actually have the ptsd from the last bear market and you you can see
you can see how like their attention their tension around all-time highs they they are like oh this
is the top this is double, this is the double top,
this is the triple top, we're going to crash from here.
If you're not excited about the markets
when we are hovering near all-time highs
and in track five or above all-time highs,
when are you going to get excited?
And it's interesting because the markets are positioned
exactly like Donny said for such an interesting rally.
And I saw some CTA reports and even JP Morgan and other big, big firms are not still in this equities rally.
So they were kind of neutral and they were in a wait and see game.
But there are signs exactly like we spoke in other amas like i posted for the last few months
with the dollar weakness and m2 most likely is going to benefit from that this is going to have
even more fuel for the risk risk assets and on top of that after like 200 days iwm was breaking out
above an important important neckline i posted a full thread about it.
Before that, I posted a thread in which I have a correlation between Russell or IWM and total three.
So if IWM is leading and is already halfway through my target, my target was 15% above 209.
And now it's already like around 7-8% on that.
And now it's already like around 7-8% on that.
Hope some of you got that trait.
So if IWM is leading, most likely it's going to take maybe four to eight weeks
until we're going to see something very interesting.
And mind you, this is going to happen in a summer
when most likely a lot of people are away.
They're, I don't know, partying, relaxing, etc.
So with IWM leading, with DXY tanking,
I think we're going to have a pretty, pretty nice time. taxing, etc. So, with IWM leading, with DXY tanking,
I think we're going to have a pretty, pretty nice time.
Mind you, we still have high interest rates.
So, what's going to happen when Paul
will cut? Because he will cut.
Maybe it's not going to be September, but
it's going to be anytime in Q4
at least once.
And more in the first quarters of
2026. I don't know what's going to happen
forward. I don't have a crystal ball,
but I still think that we're going to have three, four quarters,
at least until the second quarter of 2026,
where we can extract maximum from these markets
before something is eventually going to crack.
But, you know, see, I'm saying that eventually it's going to crack.
But if I'm seeing a potential bear market for the dollar which can last between three to
five years how can i be like even thinking about something cracking i think that we have been
trained like pavlov's dogs in the last i would say eight years to periodically think about crashes
to periodically think about the fucking bad things that can happen to have this dumourism mentality instead of looking at the good things yes this does not mean that we have to be
full digit all the time or think that the markets will go up non-stop but in the same time i think
that most of the market participants have been psyoped into this doomerism mentality and negativistic kind of
views towards market when in fact over time markets look at the tp 500 in the last 25 years
they always go up so i think 90 of the time market participants be trapped by or b in bitcoin
should be bullish and just be tactically bearish for some periods of time like six nine months
whenever there are bear markets but even then you look for opportunities i don't know i have a lot
of correlations that i'm looking at right now i shorted the fuck out of the dollar but going
forward even short to medium term i'm very bullish on the markets hey hey spread donnie i i just uh
made a meme on my personal profile i put you guys in it
check it out it's up on the nest it says uh bb adventure to new all-time highs first destination
up only you can't tell me that that is not sick bro i made donnie i made you super saiyan
I made you Super Saiyan, brother.
But yeah, that's Max, Tucker, Edward.
I put you in their spread also in the picture.
Which am I?
No, bro.
No, bro.
No, no, no.
That's Tucker.
I know.
Who am I from all of that?
I think you're the guy from the photo that I saw of you.
You're the guy in the suit, brother.
Oh, the bald guy?
In front of the treasure chest.
That's what the AI gave me, brother.
That's what the AI gave me.
So from Mexican, like I have my skin tone,
mexican like i have my skin down it's just transforming to albama joe okay dude ai in
it transformed into Alabama Joe.
five years is gonna be insane bro it's gonna be so insane it's gonna be incredible dude you're
gonna be able to make terminals just from a prompt that's how crazy ai is going to get. But yeah, it's spread, man.
The dollar looks like it's in an actual bear market,
a multi-year downtrend.
It looks like the dollar is about to get into.
Even if it has a little bounce here,
it looks like it's signaling something that the Fed is going to do.
And if we get one rate cut, I mean, that's all we need, one rate cut for quantitative tightening to stop.
And that alone is going to gap up crypto where you would think that CZ is back to being the head of Binance again.
That's how much we'd pump.
Wabi, you say something very very
good markets are forward looking most of the times so they know that eventually they're going to stop
the qt they know that eventually they will cut also the interest rates so just by that the smart
money the real smart money not this stupid concept that was brought by influencers to
to the crypto space but the real smart money are already in the trade.
They are already offloading their dollar positions
to people who are like in denial.
No, the dollar cannot go lower.
Why the fuck it cannot go lower?
Look at the chart.
Or even worse, the ones who are predicting the dollar
to rally back up to the COVID highs.
Well, listen, you know what?
I was trading, and this is to your point, Donnie,
I was live trading S&P, NASDAQ, Dow Jones when COVID hit.
Fortunately enough, I positioned myself immediately into the short side.
Then I was just watching something unbelievable
because I was also watching oil with delivery for March or May or something like that going under like minus 36.
This is when I stopped because all my notions from the previous 10 years before that got wiped out.
So there's no such thing that it cannot happen, but it's going to be very unlikely.
You know, I think you guys know me have like my models my validation my invalidation my
confirmations etc so for me as long as dollar stays under like 101 and i would say even 105
any type of rally i'll show the fuck out of it after it rejects so the the channel is so clear
and it's so interesting if you look at those two threads the one that i have pinned the one
that i posted today how clearly it actually bounces from this confluence of support so
yes uh it's not gonna go down in one straight line but like i said under 101 the dollar looks
really really bearish and under 95 it's just gonna open up 89 90 and that's it under 95 i, it's just going to open up 89.90. And that's it. Under 95, I think it's like a declared bear market.
Yeah, that's such a big macro shift on the actual chart.
Like you said, there's that channel that goes all the way back to 2008,
which starts to signal that there is a bigger macro shift
on the dollar as a whole or its position kind of in this global market.
And as that continuously starts to confirm to the broader investor base, that's when
kind of this, how you were talking about, how you're talking about, as of the current
data, you can see all the way until Q1, Q2, 26, roughly,
you can kind of see, okay, it looks like things could go pretty good until then.
But even then, if this dollar is in a structural downtrend and has shifted from this channel,
from the structural uptrend, this channel that it's maintained from 2008 till now,
and COVID was, you know, the top, that's going to indicate that potentially risk assets
as a whole are going to go into some sort of structural bull market for the next however
long, 5, 10, 15 years.
And then when you tie in how the whole world is about to change going into the 2030s with
the developments of AI, robotics, and
everything else that ties into that, that collides together.
Again, all these neutral assets, things like that.
It's such a big trend shift that you really have to pay attention to it.
Because if you start fading that trend and you keep getting shaken out by, you know, things that have things that the market has been conditioned over the last, you know, 17 years or so, then you're just going to miss a ton of opportunity over the next five to 15 years.
Even if there is bear markets, which there will be, right?
I'm basically saying that the top of the dollar is in at COVID and you could still rally even back into the hundreds or poke your head back into the hundred after going to 80 or 85 or something like that.
But that's still a lower high on a macro level than that 115 high.
And you could put in a lower low after that in the next cycle, quote unquote.
But the dollar will still stay in that structural downtrend over the next 5, 10, 15 years.
that structural downtrend over the next
5, 10, 15 years. Who knows? We'll see.
Who knows? We'll see.
But yeah, I just
think there's so many things coming together
for risk assets to do well
over the next 5, 10,
15 years. If this all
plays out, still have to get the confirmations
and everything, but yeah, we'll see.
I agree.
Even the...
There's so much
lined up. I could literally go on for hours. and I made this post just kind of going over some keywords
that you should study.
But with, how do I explain this in the simplest way?
Even with what you're seeing with the major economies and their bond markets right there,
their government debt bond markets, how you're seeing yields kind of spike up and all this kind
of stuff. We know that there is a structural supply and demand imbalance in these debt markets.
We know that they need synthetic demand and they're actually creating plans around this
to cap or bring yields down so they can actually keep funding their debt,
which is also going to put upwards pressure on risk markets, right?
Because that's literally monetary inflation.
The only way to protect yourself against that is to hold assets.
So if the whole world is pivoting to this style of, to this persistent monetary inflation, then assets
like gold, BTC, and stocks are going to do exceptionally well. And if that's, again, if
that's a big, if that's a macro shift that's confirming, which it is, if you look at the
US 10-year yield, for example, a 40-year downtrend for the first time, you know, flipping from
putting in consistent lower highs to putting in a higher high. And even if yields
do come down on the 10-year, it's likely going to be a higher low, which has shifted the trend
from lower highs and lower lows to now a higher high and a higher low. Again, you're flipping
bullish on this chart, indicating yields are going to be trending upwards. Then that's another
structural shift, along with the dollar losing that 17 year
channel.
And everything is pointing to positivity and risk markets as a hedge against this entire
problem, which is literally just leading to more currency debasement.
So I think there's just something really big and pivotal happening across all markets.
And when you tie in everything else that's on this list that I posted, it all starts to make sense that actually we're at the start of something big for these markets.
But most of the market participants at the moment are just looking to get out within
the next three months.
And for some sort of impending crash, minus 80% in markets is coming around the corner
or something like that.
It's super weird.
Danny, do you have on your...
Sorry, I don't remember because I know that I read your thread.
But do you have on your list the copper chart?
On this post that I posted?
Yeah, yeah.
No, I was just mentioning words like growth, acceleration,
stimulus, AI, robotics, compute power, you know, things like that.
It's just a few words.
I will add this piece of context for everybody who's listening or is going to listen.
Copper is called Dr. Copper because it gives the health of all the world.
Like the financial health, like copper is the parameter for the financial health of of the global economy whenever copper is in demand
and the prices of copper are rising it means that the global demand for copper is bigger and bigger
and right now we are very close to an all-time high so this is very very correlated to everything
that we just discussed until right now.
And seeing this and companies used in a lot of industries from robotics, medicine, you name it, computer, especially now in AIs and everything that's going to happen.
It's extremely hard for me to be anything but bullish. So I really want to have a debate with someone because I'm that kind of guy.
I like to be the devil advocate in a lot of situations.
And you know, Donnie, sometimes we also debate things and we see things different.
But right now, I really want to speak with someone who has a bearish thesis,
but based on solid arguments, not just fucking mumbo-jumbo.
What am I missing?
What's the angle that we are missing right now?
Because I'm looking.
Inflation is coming down.
United States job market,
we had some people who do not know anything
from the economic calendar
preaching us about the ADP,
not knowing that that gets revised
9 out of 10 cases
while the NFP just printed green after
evening and with claims under 300 000 what 300 under 250 000 not even close to 300 000
it's like i'm really curious what is the bearish narrative right now not that something can crack
anytime something can you know happen like bad in the world but what is the the bulletproof, solid thesis, like bearish thesis?
What are those arguments that you have like valid and legit arguments, not just some made up stories?
I really want to have this discussion with someone because I don't see them right now.
Yeah.
So up until now, I guess the most bearish argument was that the Fed is staying too tight and the economy is going to roll and they're going to be too late
to this, essentially to easing, and things will start to collapse,
which kind of was valid and all this kind of stuff.
But as the Trump admin started to pivot to the deregulation
of the banking system and wanting to issue more debt
on the short end, that argument right there is
kind of like invalid now, right? We're also knowing that we know that they're going to
take the measures to essentially get what they want with the Fed, whether that's in 2026 or
whatever. Again, the market is forward looking into that. But it was mainly for me, it was the
point where they started mentioning the deregulation of the banking system with the SLR exemptions pushing Fannie and Freddie public, which that was huge, right? That's literally $5 trillion in potential stimulus that they can get through just that alone.
that they needed to patch up to keep the market stable.
They literally reassured us from the April lows till now
that do not worry about the volatility in the bond market,
in the stock market, all this kind of stuff.
We have the tools to intervene if need be.
They're not going to let this market crash, right?
There's no way Trump is going to have an 80% bear market
in the stock market during his reign.
They'll do anything they can.
He'll sign a bill next week if he needs to to get something over the line, for example.
So that was the bearish thesis for that. There's way too much focus
around the Fed where the Trump admin, the Treasury side,
they're telling you that, look, we do want rates down and all this kind of stuff.
And we're going to get them down later. But for now, we've got all of these tools.
And they're telling you the tools that we can stabilize the market if needed.
So they're not going to let the market crash.
You know what I did right now while you were talking,
and I was thinking also about this deregulation from the backing system?
What is going to like this?
I opened up the KRE chart.
That's right, bro. Captain KRE.
But besides the KRE...
The original bank's ETF, bro.
So this is what I did right now.
I opened the ETF of the big banks in the United States.
It's called the KWB or BKX.
And it's sitting near all-time high.
So if the big banks in the United States
are having like a merry-go time, right?
How is it?
I mean, why do people speak about a tight cycle
when the biggest banks in the United States
and their ETF, when they're pulled together,
it's about to break all-time high.
And even the KRE, which was really suffering,
if you remember when we had the regional bank crisis in states when silicon valley bank collapsed and for the republic etc
even that edf which is called kre is looking pretty damn bullish so i'm i'm testing myself
right i'm looking through the only the only thing that i might think right now is like um
The only thing that I might think right now is like the commercial real estate, the CRA.
But that doesn't look bad also.
It just looked cap under 96.
But we saw it like housing in the United States.
It's quite okay.
So I'm really, really curious.
And I really, I'm going to do this to myself, actually.
I'm going to be my, you know, devil's advocate. And I'm going to do this to myself actually. I'm going to be my devil's advocate
and I'm going to look into my thesis,
I'm going to look in Donnie's thesis
and let's see if I find something like a crack
where we can put a paper, something there.
But for now, I don't see it.
not neither not until we go much higher
Not until we go much higher.
you know and even then like i wouldn't see some sort of like impending doom i would just
you just see that the market is way too overheated and you need a big correction
that's typical market dynamics it's not like you know something crazy happened sure you can have
like these treasury companies that might need a deal ever out of BTC and all that. But what if Bitcoin goes to 300, 400K and you experience a 70% drawdown?
It's still going to be higher than it is today, which is the whole point of people are fading
the amount of upside we can go through before things actually do end up correcting to the
correcting to the degree that they think it's going to correct from at these prices.
degree that they think it's going to correct from at these prices.
Like, I don't see how BTC hits 120, 130 with all of the stuff we just discussed, with these
massive macro trend shifts, with things that are going to, you know, things that are developing
to potentially change the world, like AI.
And everything that ties into that, the way they're pushing stablecoins, it's just there's no way.
I would be so surprised if VTC hits
120k or 130k
and that's the cycle top and we end up
going to 30, 40k. It just does not
make sense from a macro perspective
whatsoever, at all.
Because if you're calling for that drop, then you're
calling for impending doom.
It's nothing to do.
Well, it's not single-handedly the Bitcoin chart that you can look at.
There's so many factors that would have to bring it to those levels
or that would have to happen to bring it to those levels
that you need to take into consideration.
And there's just nowhere in sight, like Mr. Spreta's saying.
I'm looking. I'm actively looking.
I want to call the pivot point, just like I call the pivot point at the actively looking i want to call the pivot point just like i call
the pivot point at the bottom i want to call the top when i see it coming and i can see that okay
this is actually potentially the cycle top i will call it but there's just nowhere inside
yeah i agree like i've been through multiple cycles now and also read so many books about, um,
you know,
boom and bust cycles.
And it's just like,
we were not even close to that kind of froth that builds up when you hit a
top like that.
like there's still so much negative sentiment,
like lingering around.
You have to get all those guys to capitulate thinking that literally like
there's nothing that can take down this market.
And I think if like this next leg goes higher, that's going to be the
confirmation that everyone's waiting on.
What's really interesting is like when we bottomed on the S&P at 4,800,
essentially all these institutions, hedge funds funds all of these guys had to you know
basically exit at losses I heard a really interesting thing um today actually listening
to Tom Lee on a really good podcast and he was saying that like the thing that people don't
understand is like institutions cannot ride like like massive losses.
So they're like the first ones to basically exit in these kind of dips.
And then what happened was VIX hits 60 and it's retail who piles back in, rips this V-shaped recovery back up.
A lot of the institutions are still not for them.
Now that we have crossed past the last peak, which was, what was it?
6,140 or something like that on the S&P.
That creates a new structure for them.
And then the algos start to basically use that as the new cycle, a bullish cycle.
So they are kind of like starting to, to pile back in as I think now we're still
kind of like, we broke it.
We're ranging at this like, um, resistance point.
ranging at this like resistance point.
Once that's fully confirmed, all of that money,
which is massive money, institutional money is going to pile back in.
And it's going to be like very quick when that confirmation comes in.
And then I think it's just off to the races.
And then you have so much sentiment that's been sitting around that gets
crushed.
People were talking about end of American exceptionalism in April.
It was literally like, and people still believe that theory, even right now in the last few days with like this tariff thing coming back up into the mix.
what people like at least my thesis now Trump wanted to get the most painful stuff out of the
way early because they are on the shot clock for the midterms next year so like everything they're
doing at this point till the midterms is going to be to really like support this market he even
said it a few days ago he said markets at all-time high and we will do we will
make sure that it stays stays good so it's just insane how much this sentiment drives like price
action but um and it's just interesting to see how it all plays out and it's just so crazy that like
you know even with this whole v-shape recovery that happened driven by retail
and the narrative during that time was retail is so stupid like they don't know what they're doing
they're gonna get smoked it's just so funny how like that's why it's like the most hated v v-shape
rally um and and like it's crazy how much time it takes people to get that full confirmation
that like we're not actually like going to zero uh anytime soon you know so yeah that's that's my
take on it oh yeah i forgot to mention epstein didn't kill himself
wait what was that i barely heard it what epstein didn't kill himself.
Wait, what was that?
I barely heard it.
Epstein didn't kill himself.
Uh-huh.
Yeah, I know Elon's trying to get the list out and all that stuff.
And he tried to form the American Party, or he's trying to.
And they're going to be pro-Bitcoin. I just gonna need more you're gonna need more than just a couple million votes on x for a new party
but if they're gonna be pro bitcoin and all that stuff then i'm sure like there's gonna be a massive
push for the uh sbr stuff again later this year or next year. But does anyone else want to say anything?
I think this is a pretty good place to wrap up, honestly, guys.
All right, cool.
Man, I want to thank Donnie, Spread, Paulos, and everyone else up here
that participated on today's show.
Shout out to you guys that are listening to the show
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Spaces are recorded, as always, and we'll be back tomorrow bright and early for Market
Check, and then, of course, later on that afternoon for Spaces.
So hell of a show today, guys.
Thank you, thank today guys thank you thank you thank you there was a plethora
of things to discuss so feel free to check out the recording in case you weren't able to catch
the entire show god bless you all we'll see you all tomorrow take care everyone bye bye拜拜 Thank you. I'm not going to be able to do that. Music so Thank you.
