Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Music Walk along with razor tips
Don't look down, just keep your head
You're finished Oh, yeah. I keep it
It's no real and done what it takes It's right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, right on, Oh, yeah. Welcome to the Phillips. Take it, baby, one step more.
I'm a game still playing, so we better win it.
Oh Oh, my God. Dammit. No one left to stand in your way.
You might get jealous, but you'll never be late for your time. Music Thank you. Welcome to the limit.
Standing on the razor's edge.
Don't look down and just keep your head
Welcome to the living Yo, what's going on, guys?
Welcome back to Market Talk brought to you by BB.
I hope you're all having a fantastic day today. I hope you're all doing well.
What's up, Louie? It's been a minute since I've had you on the show. What's going on, Evan?
I'm going to call you AI guy. I'm not going to call you Bitcoin AI guy. I'm just going to call
you AI guy. I'm going to send you another invite invite to speak I'm not sure what's going on with with Amazon today I've been having issues for for like an
entire day man anytime I click to order something it just says we're having
issues right now and I thought it was an issue with AWS or something like that
but I'm like no there's no way. If AWS was down,
I wouldn't even be able to use the internet. I know we had some AWS issues earlier in the week,
but I guess just talking about markets today, oil continues to just chad aggressively. We've
been talking about oil over the last week here on the show
anytime there's uh a war going on the one commodity that outperforms everything else
is oil and even if markets go into a downturn oil is the one that usually does well especially
when there's war going on we saw that for the first half of 2022
oil just giga chatted and then you also had orange juice just giga chad so maybe there's
there's um a lot of potential for commodities to take to take over as far as a high cap
global high cap assets go but uh we are seeing a pullback in the crypto market.
We discussed the potential of that to occur yesterday, similar to the range that we had
from that November low of 80K all the way to 93K.
We deviated above that range high earlier this year at 97K.
And then we slowly broke down.
We slowly broke down, and here we are.
But I will say if the S&P does the same thing that it did last year in Q1 before all markets went into a downturn where it makes a marginal high,
there is still that potential for BTC to blow through that March 2024 high at $74K, which we almost broke out of yesterday.
But there simply just was not enough buyers.
It's not a matter of there aren't enough sellers.
There's just not enough buyers right now.
There are not enough buyers in the market right now.
But on-chain, there's always going to be some signs of life, multiple plays to be made on chain.
Some AI plays are doing OK.
Some meme coin plays are doing OK.
And that's just the nature of the beast.
In 2022, you also had multiple opportunities on chain when the broader market was just in a downturn.
NFTs were going ballistic.
A few coins were also doing quite well you had coins in
the atom slash cosmos ecosystem doing well as well as a few uh new tokens like step in and a few
others like i think uh kyber network rebranded and they blasted into price discovery. So you always have those anomalies going on in the market.
But then you have to ask yourself, how long can the market go on without that much breadth?
You will always need a high cap in the crypto market to outperform and still maintain an uptrend for that to last.
We saw that with Hyperliquid and farcoin last
year those two all coins were your indicator for broader all coin strength same thing with pump
funds token pump that was a good indicator for q3 last year and right now all focus is now on um I would say all focus is now back on hyperliquid
if you want to if you want to have a gauge on all coins and how they could perform during this small
range it's probably just going to be hyperliquid and uh potentially solana potentially solana solana has outperformed eith since the
lows at 67 um on february 5th so that's another one if you're bullish you probably want to pay
attention to solana a breakout towards 110 that would be good but outside of that I'm not really expecting any further upside
as I do think the market is just going to be insanely choppy and volatile up until Warsh gets
in office but I could be wrong and even if I am wrong there are going to be insane on-chain
opportunities for coins that either don't have much attention yet or coins
that aren't even released in the market and that's the beauty of crypto you could miss out
on the initial bottom for majors but once majors confirm a structure break to the upside
the market goes absolutely crazy on chain we saw that the summer of last year you had coins like
useless and troll go to hundreds of millions you saw coins like kita ticker kta go to billion
shout out to prometheus man for uh for calling out that coin and that was around this time last
year when the market both in the equities and in the crypto market were in a massive downturn
and kta was one of those coins that showed resilience and continued to make all-time highs
despite the insanity that was going on i mean we saw hyper liquid i'm sorry if i say i mean when i
talk i'm really working on that really pisses me off. But we saw hyperliquid going from
35 bucks down to $8 in less than two months. That is, that is a, that is a, uh, not a bull market
run for bears. It is a bear market run, a bear run. And you're just moving on over to equities
again, oil and some of these oil derivatives companies like miners and all that stuff for oil.
Those seem to be outperforming.
And the AI data centers are on quite the pullback.
I know AI guy, he likes, I'm sorry if I pronounce it wrong, Nibius.
That's trading at a market cap of 24 bill.
And I believe they're a full AI company.
And many people aren't really aware of that yet.
I would say like, I think the only thing that would detract Americans from buying that would
be like the cost per share, kind of like SanDisk.
I don't really think a lot of those flows got bought by crypto native people. I think it was
mainly just like stock market bros that bought it. And I think that's something that always
plagues people that specifically play crypto is unit bias. Unfortunately, with their stock market, bros,
they really do not care if they have to buy a stock
that's like $200, $300, $500 a share, like a SanDisk.
And maybe history repeats itself, right?
And Nebius pulls out like 150%.
I'm not actually bullish on Nebius or Nebius or Nubius
I thought you were because you posted it on the nest
yeah yeah so there's a tragic
for those who follow me might be aware
that has to be a troll, man.
I have a tenant who unfortunately had 100 shares of Nubias in his car.
And then some asshole broke into his car and dumped 50 more shares of Nubias.
Like, crime is out of control.
to accumulate those 100 shares
has to put more fries in bags
for another couple years.
and is going to buy the dip on iron today.
Yeah, I sent Uncle Mike an invite to speak,
but I thought you were bullish on them, honestly.
I'm against clear liquor. I Not at all. I'm against communism.
I'm against clear liquor.
I think only females drink clear liquor.
You know, I've been... You're going to get me in trouble, bro.
You're going to get me in trouble, man.
What's wrong with Tito's?
What's wrong with Tito's?
I mean, there's nothing wrong with Tito's.
I'm just saying I don't support communism and females.
Man, I guess speaking about some other assets,
I was looking at McDonald's stock because the CEO,
he had a bite of his product, And I'm like, all right,
look, I understand some people think that the McDonald's CEO is kind of a brainlet. And
in reality, I think that was a giga chat move because number one, he called it a product and
he knew that it would go viral. Right. And now you have all these CEOs trying to mog him.
They're trying to burger mog him, dude.
You even had the RB CEO get a roast beef sandwich and flap it around with his fingers.
That is some absolute gross behavior.
Fast food is going to zero.
We're in the looks maxing yeah right now
yes we are all of these guys are coping the chipotle ceo is coping yes all of these guys
are are just trying to uh you know tread water and keep their heads above water uh because all
the is going to zero like you know you have these Chinese peptides flooding the markets, and eventually all the
large pharma companies are going to, you know, put their nuts on the table and, you know,
But I think America, you know, long term is going to end up, you know, really pushing
for this looks maxing ideology.
And I think a lot of fast food companies are going to go out of business.
We're going to see franchises go to zero.
Margins are already super thin.
The average consumer is not eating out as much.
the average consumer is not eating out as much and and when i hear these like uh co comments from
like chipotle ceo saying like hey like you know our customers make over 100 grand a year and uh
you know this is all nonsense like those individuals are not eating at Chipotle. They are injecting themselves in the
ass with trizapatide or ozempic or manhara, however you say it, because they're trying to
look good on the beach and try to get late. This is the generation, the new era that we're in nowadays. So I think fast food is a terrible trade.
All the stuff you're seeing on the timeline is absolute nonsense. And it's like some shit
coin being shilled by some VC that you should not engage with. And I'm glad we're taking this
opportunity on Spaces to discuss it because this is absolute nonsense.
I'm actually documenting my,
And I understand some people think like it might be cap.
I'm going to go ahead and put it up on the nest here.
while you're busy with that,
filling out the jumbotron um right
right the delts and the uh that's right frame did you guys see uh i need to ask a question did you
guys see the rb ceo in response to the mcdonald's ceo yes dude he grabbed the roast beef sandwich
and he got his fingers and he started to flap it around yeah he probably one of the most disgusting videos i've ever seen on the internet he literally slaps down roast beef sandwich
on the table undoes his belt zips his pants down sits back down somehow the sandwich is now
you know unspread he he proceeds to stick his fingers in the roast beef and then
he slaps the patty back on the roast beef and he takes a bite of it pretending to enjoy it it was
probably one of the most disgusting uh yes sandwiches i've ever seen in my life yes man
and that's why he respected the foreplay dude and and that's why tucker got sick for those of you
that don't know our cfo he's seven feet tall and weighs 450 pounds he's an absolute freak of a man and um you know he's like oh wow man you're not gonna
believe this i'm enjoying my day off and it was i think it was on sunday man he's like man i mean
i i went to arby's for the first time and it's absolute gas and he got like three rb sandwiches
and i'm like bro that's like going
on over to avalanches it's like buying avax and going on over to the avax c chain and then you're
gonna make money and then you wake up and you're rugged because avax had to hire a new e-girl on
their team you know and now he's sick he's just completely done for, man. And he's gone from 450 pounds to 420 pounds, and he can barely speak.
And Arby's is honestly probably like, it's the mattress firm.
We've said it on the show.
Arby's is the mattress firm of all fast food.
There are so many locations for no reason and it's like this
money laundering machine um for fast food america and um yeah looks maxing is a real thing
my hairline is uh thicker my the hair on my scalp is thicker. My skin is glowing. I've lost five inches off of my
waist, and I still weigh the same, which is unreal. I'm off gear, and my voice is deeper,
and it actually works, and people actually treat you differently, man. They think it's
some joke, but when you take care of yourself, people actually treat you differently.
But anyways, I don't want to make this a looks maxing space or anything like that.
We can talk markets and all that stuff.
So, AI guy, if you want to start off, man, and kind of give your thoughts.
Here, yesterday, we made new range highs we kind of poked above um the prior
range high which we're at right now we were close to breaking out of that march 2024 high and you
know we've been talking about a potential squeeze to like 80 000 which is the nove 2025 low, I think that's a good area where you could provide some juice.
Even if we eventually do make new lows on BTC, bear markets aren't straight down,
just as bull markets aren't straight up.
You usually need to take liquidity from the other side and provide some provide some juice um for the trend and i'm sorry if i say you know man that
i'm trying so hard to work on that when i speak and i'm like you know you know you know it drives
me nuts man it really does but anyways a hi guy yeah i think it's simple. We're waiting for the 50 day, right? So that's at 80,000. That's the level I think we'll start seeing some more bullishness on the timeline. But it's not about Bitcoin, right? You know, the shrimps on Twitter are more excited about the leverage plays, right? They're playing perps, they're playing altcoins, they're trading
Bitcoin per share. I don't think we start seeing some bullishness on the treasuries,
the smaller treasuries in particular until we're at the 100A moving average for Bitcoin,
which is around 88. But I don't want to sound too much like a chart squiggler.
I'm very, very bullish Bitcoin, just generally. The market I'm more interested in now is the
actual bull market that's happening, which is in AI. And looking at the valuations, the prices for, you know, some of the highest growth plays, literally by revenue, like you're seeing hundreds of percentages of guidance in sales and some of the neoclouds or the cloud service, the NVIDIA cloud partners.
You mentioned, you know, Nebius earlier.
They're one of them, right?
I think they forecasted over 500% growth. CoreWeave is guiding, what, over 20 billion ARR in the next two years in some change.
You know, that is where my mind is.
In the background, I look at Bitcoin as an asset I want to accumulate over time, right?
It's not something that, you know, I'm full porting right now.
I don't think that's necessary.
I think the real alpha is in the equities markets and uh still to this day you know crypto bros
are coping right they're uh you know when i hear a unit bias i just think of unsophisticated
you know uh retail kid analysts uh that are in their you know their mom's basements right
these are not serious people i don't think you should give them airtime.
Sometimes they're funny, like Nakamoto.
Is this Mike Alfred's alt?
This is not Mike Alfred's alt, but we share some...
It just sounded a lot like him for a second.
His name is Guy Alfredfred it's bitcoin ai
and it's guy so his name yeah i mean that that's the market i'm focused on i think ai is in a clear
super cycle i've been in crypto for 12 years right like you hear like the word super cycle
is a meme right but there's a true super cycle happening in AI, and there's going to be trillions and trillions
of dollars invested over the next few years.
So I'm positioning myself, and I have been for the past few years, on this trade.
I think the Luxmaxing trade is a big idea as well.
I think large pharma is eventually going to print trillions of dollars
from these weight loss drugs. But what's growing even faster than Ozempic and all the other
extracurriculars is AI data centers, right? This is the time to be bullish and the market has literally stopped caring about this.
Like remember when like the AI bubble was a thing, like every other tweet was like,
oh my God, this AI bubble is going to pop.
CoreWeave is a $100 billion company.
Like where is this going to go?
OpenAI is raising hundreds of billions of dollars at an $800 billion valuation.
Did he just cut up? Did we lose him? I think we lost him.
I thought I was listening to Mike Alfred there for like
He thought I was having like an episode.
that's it bro your NFTs are done for now
I think people are sleeping on
bear on the absolute, you know, bare on the subject.
But, you know, he's probably going to mention the $6 billion ATM that was announced,
Like, how do you go from a $2 stock to an $8 stock in a year and some change, right?
Like, in a couple of years and some change,
sorry. It's because of this concept that the MSTR bulls love talking about, which is a creative
dilution. This is what it takes to grow a company, right? And if you are a good steward of capital,
to grow a company, right?
And if you are a good steward of capital,
you are going to access the markets, right?
And I'm actually curious about what David has to say
since he blocked me a couple of days ago.
All right, we're going to do this, right?
We have the speakers and all that stuff,
but just to not have anyone talk in monologue fashion, I'm
going to cap it to like five minutes.
That's a great idea, Wobby.
It's not a big issue, the at-the-money $6 billion that Iron borrowed or raised.
that iron borrowed or raised uh lily uh deployed a ton of money to build the plants
and they went from a 90 earnings now they're at going to be And the utility of a pharma at 7% of health spend is definitely 20% lower cost.
I mean, Lilly, their GLP-1, is going to save so much money for the government by not having people with bad knee replacements because they're
obese it's not the at the money that iron which so ironically you know code reuse i ran i ran
only one letter difference the time but the it's not the at the money, it's the fact that it went from $2 to $80.
While Microsoft couldn't get a bid until after they were so oversold
that people started to recognize what we were saying,
which is you cannot take software down to the greatest undervaluation versus hardware of all time and not have a snapback.
The first day it wasn't down, it started at 20% net alpha, buying Microsoft and shorting semis.
But this is not what I wanted to talk about. I want to talk about how the dollar,
which was driven down by policy interference, by liquidity after the dot-com era,
and you took the dollar from 1.2120 down to 70.805,
and now the dollar is above its 50-year trend line.
And people can pretend that's not a thing,
but it's a thing. And we're losing
dollar liquidity. Now, could it come back? Maybe. Not sure. That's not my view. My view is that
this is the trend, that the supply of dollars in the world that was used, remember, Druckenmiller,
who was famously out last week saying, I shorted bonds, I converted it out of
dollars, and I sent it to Brazil and Korea and Japan. So he created money supply. It's not just
the government. He created money supply, and he's going to get unwound and all the people that shorted bonds and shorted dollars
over the last since 2008 who think that they're they're brilliant they're bull market brilliant
they're they're euro bull market brilliant okay they they weakened the dollar from one 21 20 down to 70.805 minus $50.
That's a lot of liquidity.
And then the Japanese, they, they took their currency after the European debt crisis from 75.161.
That's a lot of liquidity.
That's the liquidity that Bitcoin absorbed and we're losing it and you go watch it's my base case
the yen doesn't go to 100 or 200 it doesn't go to 200 or 300 the end goes to 100 the yen
accelerates versus the dollar as the dollar accelerates higher versus the euro and the pound and the emerging markets they were a place for people to send
some tech exhaust tech exit as you get fang to the 52-week low as we cycle through the may 11th
As we cycle through the May 11th level, that's the post-liberation day clean-out,
where all of that data set of all that Trump deformation, as that all goes away on the charts,
you're going to see just more and more decline.
And anyone who's loving AI is not old enough to know the truth.
And anyone who's loving AI is not old enough to know the truth.
Apple and Intel and Microsoft traded like single digits, low double digits.
And because of all the money printing and the negative cost of capital, and these companies are industrial consumers of negative cost of capital.
When Biden had a 9.1% inflation rate reported in June of 2022, what did the Fed do?
Did they go from a 75 basis point hike in June 16, 2022 to July 28th?
that was 75 days before the low that was caused by the rate hikes
and the dollar strength and the cash flow surrender.
Now we have dollar strength.
Tell me when it stops going up. Tell me when it resumes a
downtrend. Tell me when dollar debasement is real and not policy debasement. And then the OGs,
the Druckenmillers, the Duquesne, all of these guys. Show me and watch when the dollar goes up and em goes down and you don't see as much money going
into gold and silver and you see gold volatility and silver vaulted do what i do go find any
volatility ticker you can and just basic math add them all up gold vol g vol, GVZ, oil, OVX, Bitcoin, DVOL, VX, SLV, VXTLT, VXS. Just add up
all the volatilities and watch them get melted down because when the money supply stops growing
at such a fast rate where you expand volatility, it goes in the other direction.
And if you see falling ball, generally, you'll see falling price.
So while you think this AI is based on brilliance, sophistication, innovation, go back and look at what happened to the NASDAQ, denominated in the S&P October 12th, 1990 after the Gulf War.
It was less than one times. It was 55%. The NASDAQ was what, around 160, the S&P around 300,
something like that. And then the NASDAQ outperformed by 600%. Go look on those charts, three standard deviations.
They took us to a 0.79 Q ratio.
That's the replacement value of the S&P 500.
If you had the equity to what it would cost to replace all the businesses.
And now we're at 139 Q ratio, not 79.
we're at 139 Q ratio, not 79. The S and P to GDP is two and a quarter. When you add in crypto,
forget gold adding in that it was one 39 at.com peak. It was, it was one Oh five in Oh seven,
2007. So while you're having happy times, you don't understand what real cost of money is because you're all young.
You had free money produced by the Fed to solve the problems that Obama just loved making the oligarchs would shut down the Republicans.
He made them just rich and fat.
Go watch what it is when there's a real cost of money.
Go watch what it's going to do to housing.
When gravity takes down the value, when gravity takes down interest rates,
when mortgage rates continue to melt,
when mortgage volatility falls with bond volatility.
I'm shorting volatility right now, friend. What is the trigger? What are you shorting? I don't understand. I'm shorting volatility right now, friend.
I just gave you the list.
Give me your biggest short.
I don't want to talk to this guy.
I don't want to talk to this guy.
Don't let him talk to me.
If you weren't listening, listen to the replay.
Listen to the replay. I'm not your little lap dog. Listen to the replay what I said. If you weren't listening, listen to the replay. Listen to the replay.
I'm not your little lap dog.
Listen to the replay what I said.
Dude, I might ask you to give me a lap dance.
I'm just saying which is the biggest sport.
I don't want to give you a lap dance.
I don't want to talk to you because I just said what I said.
Go to the replay and listen to what I said.
I'm not repeating it for you.
I'm not repeating it for you.
I'm not repeating it for you.
Shut up. Guys, guys, come you. Shut up. Shut up. Shut
up, clowny. Shut up. I don't need you to, I don't need you to bark like a little seal.
I told you what I, you didn't have the respect to listen. So go to the replay. My point is when you see the dollar rise, it is basic arithmetic.
Less money to buy oil and gold and silver and crypto and tech on the same day.
Go watch the dollar continue.
It's overtaken its 50-year trend line.
And not far from now, I imagine its shorter-term
trend line, its 12-and-a-half-year trend line, 50 quarters will overtake and give you a quarterly
golden cross. That is outside of the timeframe of presidents. That's 12-and-a-half years versus 50
years. The money they printed printed you think rate cuts cause and
cause money supply to grow that's not what happens we have a hundred trillion of equity
we have 400 trillion of bonds the bonds were pressed down in value by policymakers that
created inflation that That's over.
You're having strength all along the curve. Bitcoin going up or down.
And after AI guy, we're going to go ahead and...
I don't need to be interrupted by someone who I blocked.
I don't want to speak to...
I don't want to engage...
That's a disrespectful person who doesn't want to learn.
I want people who want to listen to learn.
The dollar, nobody had on their bingo card crossing its 50-year trend line.
And as it goes up, it destroys emerging markets.
Higher oil prices require emerging markets to pay more for the oil.
And since the vast majority of 6 billion people in emerging markets get subsidized oil from their governments,
the governments need to waste more of their limited dollars on their treasury to buy that
oil and subsidize their people. And they don't have enough to stabilize their currency, like the
rupee, which is at a new all-time low. The rupee is near it. And we had a similar situation in 1997
Has it been five minutes yet? I think it's been five minutes.
Okay, I'm on. Either block him or
I'm out of here. I can't have clowns
Leave! No one wants to listen to your fucking history
class bro yeah guy go ahead man no let's let's bring up another speaker because you guys
haven't gone haven't gone okay um all right uh look okay so i'm just gonna get into i i mean
i think everybody wants to know you know the thing on everybody's mind right now is freaking like, is the Bitcoin rally going
And, you know, it's obviously impossible to really know, but there's a decent chance,
like I would say over 50% that you could have already kind of hit the top of this rally
I retraced it, you know, kind of from May and June of 2022.
It's almost like we're in a damn simulation here becauseaced it, you know, kind of from May and June of 2022. It's almost
like we're in a damn simulation here because 74K and you could, that's why I've been saying for,
I don't know, the past week, two weeks or something, 74K. And that's the way I retraced
it based on that bear market rally back in 2022. It led to 74K. There was also a pretty big trend
line there. You know, some big points there. And so far, we've rejected perfectly from that 74K.
So I'm in a position where I'm going to look smart if 74K was kind of our high here and we
reject from that. And I do think there's a very significant chance that that happens.
If we do go up a little bit higher, obviously, 75 is another really big point. There's a year
today anchored VWAP right around currently 76, 77. Those are all big
points, obviously. Usually you don't, I was talking to somebody who was really good with
the anchored VWAPs and he was telling me, usually you don't get to the anchored VWAPs until like
quarter two in the bear market years. So that would be my base case that you would kind of
reject from here right around, you know, 74.3, which was our high. And you generally could end up,
you know, going down quite a bit here. I could see the bright side, the silver lining of this
is March could be, you know, this could be our bottom. If Bitcoin dumps, you know,
to somewhere in the 50 Ks or maybe even 48 or 50 K this month, that could be the bear market bottom.
Every bear market bottom is generally earlier. And I mean, arguably in 2022,
you know, that June would have been the bottom. June would have been the bottom, assuming FTX
didn't happen, and Ethereum bottomed in June, and even frickin' MicroStrategy bottomed in May of
2022 before pretty much everything. So it would align with that way if we reject from here. So I
do think this is a pretty big bull trap.
I could be wrong, but I think it's like a very low risk.
If you're a trader, obviously, financial advice, you know, most traders lose, obviously.
But, you know, a stop loss somewhere slightly above 75 or high 74 is that kind of area.
And then just let it, you know, kind of ride down.
That could be a really good technique here on Bitcoin.
Very low risk, very high reward too.
You know, that's what I like to do here.
So that's what I'm kind of betting on.
I mean, I took some profits right around 74
because that was my target.
That's what I've been posting about.
And yeah, that was that thing.
But for more of the real strategy, I think, you know, right now,
and I've talked about it and, you know, the strategy now, I think, is we're in an accumulation phase for Bitcoin.
You know, it's probably not going to get really exciting.
We're probably not going to make new all time highs this year.
It's probably, you know, it's probably going to do what it normally does, you know, and that's good.
You know, it's good for it to do what it normally does.
normally does. You're still going to get at least probably a 3x in the next couple of years.
You're still going to get at least probably a 3x in the next couple of years.
You know, let's not get too greedy here.
Let's not get too greedy here. But if you either DCA Bitcoin or you could do what I like to do,
wheel strategy with options on Ibit, kind of that, selling cash secured puts, that type of
situation. You get paid if it doesn't hit your entry point, but then you get assigned if it does
your strike price. Excuse me. There's a lot of different things you could do. Micro strategy,
just because I'm hoping that it does,
I think there's a decent shot it could do what it did back in 2022,
bottom before everything.
If Bitcoin makes a lower low and micro strategy does not make a lower low,
that's going to be really bullish for micro strategy.
And I think that's also a very low risk high reward play because, you know,
what I'm planning on doing is if my micro strategy makes a lower low against Bitcoin, I'm just going to convert my micro strategy over to Bitcoin.
Very low risk, very high reward.
And I think that if all goes well for micro strategy, if Bitcoin does like, say, a 3x or a 4x, you know, in the next couple of years, I think micro strategy could do like an 8x, you know, similar to what Bitcoin did last bull run from 15k 15k all the way up to um 126k um so that's what i'm looking at right there um ethereum has been
dumping against bitcoin all coins have been dumping a bit against bitcoin um hyper you know
hype i i like the fundamentals wabi i know a lot of people like to talk about it i'm still careful
now but maybe in a few months maybe in a few months i'll pull the trigger youabi i know a lot of people like to talk about it i'm still careful now but
maybe in a few months maybe in a few months i'll pull the trigger you know there's a new ticker too
on the uh like crypto index it's cmc 20 um cmc 20 usd and that's the top 20 market cap of cryptos
they came out with and that's a good gauge just to look at how the top 20 cryptos are doing you
put that um against bitcoin usd and you could see how they're doing and they've been it's generally
been bleeding still against bitcoin so i want to see more momentum on that chart before i kind of
you know put any money into any altcoins right now if you look at others versus bitcoin that's
all pretty much the whole all everything outside the top 10 versus bitcoin it's wild too because
that's been coming up against Bitcoin.
But most people's all still have been bleeding against Bitcoin.
Picking the right fricking alts is tough, man.
That's, that's been the, that's been the thing.
And I think the thing that a lot of people got nailed on, you know,
got screwed on, including myself the past, you know,
two years or so is we had a lot of alts in the top 20 and those alts just
bled like crazy against Bitcoin,
but there were new alts that kind of did well.
It's kind of like picking a damn, what's the analogy,
a needle in a haystack, you know, kind of like that situation.
So that's ultimately the strategy right now.
I think it's accumulation phase.
What I will say, last thing I'll say here is,
man, crypto Twitter has been feisty.
A lot of drama, a lot of that type of stuff.
I don't know if that's, I'd say probably that's maybe a top signal.
You know, look at more of my shorts here.
But, you know, let's try to be respectful, guys.
You know, we'll all keep it, you know, five minutes.
You know, all you guys are really smart.
I mean, I hate to say, I kind of cringe when I see some really smart people, you know, act like children, you know, on Twitter or whatever.
But, you know, it's funny. Talk, dude, but you know it's funny dude evan i love that shit man i love that shit i organize these
panels sometimes to cause as much chaos and mayhem as much as possible man i will say that
on a recorded space brand people think that this is crazy oh my gosh but they were they were not around when joe and kush used to go at it oh
my gosh dude in 2023 people do not understand now look i understand dude some people might
tune into these spaces and they're like ah people going to bitcoin spaces they're learning about
fundamental blah blah blah bro i do not care nobody Nobody cares. I get it. Cap supply.
Michael Saylor's on crack, buying Bitcoin.
And now, like, the laser-eyed people are talking about AI.
And that's usually what happens, bro.
People get fucked on alts and they pivot to BTC and then they pivot to actual shitters.
Like, people think altcoins are scams.
Dude, the original altcoins are pink sheets dude there are things in the stock market that you can buy
at the same valuation as some of these altcoins and now they're talking about like ai data centers
and shit like dude you understand that that's basically just as if you were playing altcoins
if those things are doing well all coins are doing well you have
to understand that if when you saw iron going from from uh 10 bucks 15 bucks right in the
summertime hyperliquid went into price discovery bnb went into price discovery so if you're bullish
on some of these names dude then you're bullish on some all coins. You have to say it. It's all one big trade.
And a lot of this is pure entertainment, dude,
because I think everyone who turns into these spaces,
they're kind of already informed of how the markets work, man.
If the stock market does well, Bitcoin does well,
Bitcoin does well, it's generally a risk on period. and sometimes you have things that people
They're just wrong, right if you told someone and I remember I entertained this last February and
I'm like man I can see why some people wouldn't even want to buy crypto right now
They just want to buy gold and Joe was on that show and he's like also you're telling people to just
Buy a bunch of gold and I'm like probably it might be a good trade and gold is up like over 100 over the last 12 months
and what have you been doing dollar costs averaging into an asset that's out that's been
outperforming as far as to the downside or just nothing like zero net return over the last 12
months you know you're gonna have tramoth saying have you generated capital losses did you guys see that by the way there was some guy and he was like he was like uh
prometheus you know what i'm talking about right trimoth um pop a lot patea whatever his name is
and he was talking about uh capital losses Yeah, he's the SPAC guy.
He's the SPAC craze back in, what was it, 21 or 20?
So this is basically what happened, right?
He was talking about, some guy was talking about how Chamath was running all these scams through SPACs.
And he never came killing about it.
Customers lost money. And Chamath is like, nah and some other guy his name is dude his his name is literally
just dude and it's like it's not bullshit I invested in all of them your pitches were
compelling then I lost tons you made tons why and Chamath is like then you generated capital losses
did you use those yet you know what i mean and now because of the lack
of upside in bitcoin price action you have some of these guys who's like entire thing is just
dollar cost averaging bitcoin which i understand man right i understand that completely but you go
from just talking about the laser-eyed cyber hornets thesis or whatever the talking about ai shitter companies
what it it's it's insanely cringe dude it's insanely cringe um but i know how i get i go
on a tangent and i'm just gonna stop um no wabi i just wanted to say real quick i i think
everybody's angry because this looks max and crap like it's tougher to get girls and all this shit
everybody's injecting stuff in their asses now we're talking about like i'm in i'm in argentina
right now like i get a lot of these guys are also ugly by the way man yeah you know like you could
you could use like you could use some some roids there's nothing wrong with some tests there's
nothing wrong with some anivar if you're an older man you know these things can actually help you um get a hair transplant you can use
just for men if you don't look good with gray some guys pull off the gray look but some just
look sleazy visit a barber use skincare products um drain your eye bags right use some skin care products get some sun okay these are
basic things don't drink soda avoid chips these are basic things that can make your day-to-day
a lot easier and directly improve your market performance but robbie even with all that they
said women view every go the same it doesn't matter man
it doesn't matter yeah i mean look at tom brady he had it all and jessell butch and left them for
yeah yeah now instructor i mean i'm in i'm in argentina i get like fucking or excuse the
language i get ribeye steaks like six bucks man i have to look to minimize man i'm trying to look
to minimize but i'm i'm looks maxing without even trying here because the food is so good and all this and like no one is
overweight like y'all americans are depressed man like like we're being laughed at like
china is looking at this and laughing man
yeah perhaps some voice maxing could be in order man just like uh like yourself dude
yeah that's uh that's another thing i gotta voice minimize man i'm trying to look minimize
have you ever seen the crooked man on instagram he looks minimizes because he's too good
you gotta dude you're like uh macho man randy savage bro the The moment you speak, it's like, you know,
chill, what's going on, man?
How are you doing? It's been
bro, since the bull market
no, since December, excuse me.
Hey, appreciate you having me back on the show.
It's been a journey, dude.
I've been doing this, building out my live stream.
And we've been, like, just doing a lot, a lot of heavy lifting there.
I mean, getting, like, you know, know, got like 15,000 viewers a week.
We're, we're partnered with Meteora. So we're, we're, we're, we're doing pretty good. Like all
the heavy lifting is like almost pretty much almost over. It's just a matter of just being
consistent at this point. But I mean, a part of that is just keeping up with markets. I think
you guys were talking about it just a few minutes ago when I first hopped on. But yeah, I mean, as far as like how I'm viewing markets right now,
like I posted a tweet that I said, I don't, I don't trust this rally. You know, we're in a
bear market at the end of the day. We're on a downtrend on, on a high timeframe. Like if you
look at the monthly, even I would even say on the weekly
as on the weekly as well. And perhaps even on like, I would even say still on the, on the,
on the three day, but definitely on the monthly and the weekly, you know, where we're in a
downtrend. So, you know, I'm just, we're rejecting off the weekly FEG. And I think we
have a lot of liquidity to grab at like 60K or so. So I'm looking for a rejection here,
little bounce off 60K, but I am a fan of the summer bottom. I think a lot of people are
eyeing a Q4 bottom in relation to how things played out in 2022.
I do think that, you know, these cycles are getting tighter.
If you go back to when I was on this show a few years ago, back when you mentioned Joe and Kush.
I remember those guys, man.
Those guys are Joe especially.
Funny, funny dude, funny dude. But I remember back then, you know, I was calling for a pre-having all-time high, and I was very vocal about that.
And I've always had the thought that that was significant for something.
But at the time, I didn't know what.
It's really what it is, is the cycle is tightening.
That's really what's happening.
So we're seeing, you know, Bitcoin run to a new high sooner. So the time from old all time high to new all time high
is shrinking. And then two, we, you know, this bear market generally looks different than the
last one. In the last bear market, you-dollar protocols and popular exchanges were literally imploding and taking billions of dollars with them.
In this bear market, billions of dollars have already been extracted out of this space through the meme coin craze, through a lot of extractive platforms that have come out.
So a lot of money has already been
extracted. And granted, yes, we can go lower, but it's not this situation of our entire industry
imploding like we did in the last bear market. So yeah, I do feel like we can carve out a bottom
somewhere, maybe perhaps late Q2, but definitely, but, but definitely sometime in the, in the summer is what I'm thinking. And then we go on to, you know, we go on to, to double bottom
and reverse off that. So that's kind of like high timeframe thoughts. I mean, as far as like low
timeframe, like trades and positioning, I'm not really, I've been flat. I've been on my,
sitting on my hands for, for a decent while now, selectively bidding some stuff.
Like obviously AI agents who cannot pay attention to that right now.
You have people like Felix.
I saw Base and Bankless talked about them as well.
We spotted Felix on our stream at like 1.5 mil market cap and it went to like, you know, like seven or eight mil or something
like that. But I mean, trades like that, you'll always have these bear market runners, these,
these, these parts of the market where there are small bull markets going on or,
or maybe tokens or trades to be had, but honestly not really doing too much trading in this
environment, just more so keeping a track of what's the narrative, because I do feel like when
we do eventually bottom in the summer, a lot of these assets will be beaten down. But as capital
returns, we have to position in tokens that can actually capture that attention and attract that
capital that wants to buy on the other side. So looking for a bottom, can't wait till we start reversing, man. But yeah, that's kind of thoughts right now on where we are and where we're headed.
Oh, you mentioned altcoins and data centers.
One's got real assets, right? and the other one's uh vaporware like there's
yeah i'm just i i i understand that i'm just talking about the flows like
when those things run it's generally let me ask a question does does uh fart coin and palantir
is there a correlation between them i don't know man but far coin did go up like over a thousand percent off the april lows
so these are all just momentum trades honestly like i don't really believe in
in holding alts for years and years and years um right but i remember having these debates
i remember having say there's a difference between palantir and fortcoin right obviously obviously um
and speaking of fortcoin like i was on these spaces with donnie back in like october going
into november into the election and they were like many people saying oh you know bitcoin's
gonna go to 200 000 300 000, why would anyone buy Farcoin?
Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
And it's like, because if all this shit's going up, it's just going to go along with it.
Yeah, the only thing that matters is the price.
The only thing that matters is price.
Yeah, the only thing that matters is price.
Everything else is fucking noise and like mental masturbation and like, oh, you know know balance sheets and all this like it literally
doesn't matter it literally does not matter did you make money or did you not make money
right that's the only thing that matters yeah it's like um those covet stocks right
pfizer whatever everyone was like oh dude the the vaccine it's it's um from pfizer or whatever the
right and then like you look at the you look at the stock performance, like, bro, Pfizer didn't even, it barely went up over 100% from the COVID lows.
You know how pathetic that is, man?
really and um yeah i remember having conversations about like all coins and all that stuff versus
everything else um at the ftx bottom and they were like oh you know spf is gone doquan is gone
3c is gone all coins and i'm gonna gonna come back and the market said fuck you you know here's
a here's a a frog goes up to 12 bill. Here's some AI slop
It went to five bill and it was on base to
Here's some AI anime slop on soul. It went to three bill
Here's a dog with a hat it ran up to five bill
So I really don't give a shit about
Fundamentals or any of that stuff when it comes to all coins outside of a few right i mean there's no fundamental we gave this is hype yeah there there there really isn't it's everything is hype
dude like i think it's coming back soon though it'll come dude vlad vlad from hood can be pressed
with a bunch of charges or whatever and hood can go to zeros everything Everything is a risk, man.
Yeah, but the key is the position size, right?
Are you going to go mortgage your mom's house and go in on Barcoin versus Google stock, right?
Yeah, I argue that Google is a momentum trade too on AI, right?
But what are you willing to risk, the the downside is completely different right yeah yeah but i mean the upside is is far more impressive at the same time
it's literally just worth i mean you just wait it like it doesn't it literally doesn't matter i
mean that's just like that's the dilemma
that's like the trader's dilemma right yeah um is deciding capital allocation and risk management
you know that's that's all it is and like sure you could risk you know like 20 of your portfolio
let's say on like a super safe fundamental. And you could risk like 0.5%
on like some shit coin. And you could net the same return risking less, right? Of your portfolio
and be more capital efficient. So it's just like, like I said, all that matters, genuinely speaking,
is like you make money in a trade
you know like nothing literally nothing else matters um it's i think it's kind of a farce
that you know we want to get into from like a human emotion perspective and from like human
psychology perspective is right from a primal perspective we always want to um you know avoid uh avoid risk right
we want to mitigate fear like that is that is like a human's natural instinct um and i think
it's a way to like justify or it's i think people saying that you know something's less risky versus the other
it's just a way to like justify um like dealing or coping with some kind of fear like whatever
that may be losing money uh being wrong I know a lot of people on this platform their egos are
far more important than anything else um you know it's it's kind of like what do you right what are you balancing what are you weighing
at the end of the day um and it's you know it's just it's the trader's dilemma that's literally
all it is yeah i i 100 agree the you know the reason i brought it up was because uh someone
brought up unit bias and uh when i you know when i hear that brought it up was because someone brought up unit bias.
And when I, you know, when I hear that,
I just think of inexperienced investors, traders, right.
That will go all in on something that they truly don't understand and risk something they can't afford to lose.
No, I mean, I agree. Like I fucking talk with my dad.
She's my language, you know know and he's like oh this
you know shit coins trading it like one you know one millionth of a penny you know and if it goes
to a dollar you could retire and i've explained it to him probably four times at this point five
times you know but it's kind of the same conversation every time it's like well that's
not actually how it works.
This thing called market capitalization.
And you have to explain that, right?
But I mean, that's kind of, there's levels to this game, right?
I want to hear the thesis again with, I forget who spoke earlier about altcoins running.
I'm very interested in hearing why they think that.
I'm not against that idea.
Honestly, I wish I could, man.
But it's as simple as if the stock market goes up,
if you have these lower cap companies run up,
That's pretty much it. In the eighties.
Um, what do you mean? I'm talking about like just an overall bull market,
man. Like an, an overall bull market.
Bull market. Like how do you, how would you define when we're in a boat?
I would say, I would say a bull market is when things go into price discovery.
See over in the room, right? And the title of space is 80 K soon. Right. I would say a bull market is when things go into price discovery. Let's talk about Bitcoin.
It's the elephant in the room, right?
Title of space is 80K soon, right?
Do you think you're going to continue to see some relative strength on things like Hyperliquid,
I don't really give a huge speech when it comes to markets.
Yeah. Well, I mean, during the process of where BTC goes up, flows as far as rotation just change.
And we saw that in 2023, 24, 25.
2023, you had capital and all coin space go towards the VC coins,
things like Sol, things like Injective, Celestia.
You also had Casper running pretty hard rollbit ran pretty hard um suey ran pretty
hard say ran hard and then um once dog with hat started just blasting through 50 mil 60 mil
i think everyone on ct knew about with the moment it crossed like 40 to 60 had that correction
and then that's when memes started to take over you had memes take over all the way throughout
the summer and the fall with spx 6900 then you had gotias maximus and then it was basically ai for a
few months and then the market gets fucked and 2025 happens so it's not like
with all coins right now you can just keep throwing a dart at it like you did with solana
right the solana trade was easy um if you want bro you can go on the because bitcoin channel
go on our videos where me and max gave the solana thesis when it was trading at 12 bucks. I gave the thesis here on these spaces with Trader XO.
I think it was like in early January or late December.
Late December 22, early January of 23.
And I had many conversations with laser-eyed people,
and I called them freaks because they just don't know how to trade,
and they think just dollar-cost averaging is the the way to go and that's fine with me but um for people
that are barely starting out in markets they're going to be forced to play with low caps whether
that's in stocks or in all coins that's just going to be it because i'm i'm never going to fall for
like the laser-eyed hornet thesis for michael saylor um just never going to fall for the laser-eyed hornet thesis for Michael Saylor.
I'm just never going to believe that whole thing.
And whether that excludes me from social circles, that's fine with me.
But people come here to make money, not really to make a bunch of friends.
So that's kind of my thesis on alts.
So that's kind of my thesis on alts.
I think they're just a momentum trade.
And if you're in crypto long enough, you can apply those same skill sets to the equity markets.
You can identify momentum.
That's how I got started.
yeah yeah yeah yeah but um i think stocks i've been i've been i've been yapping over the last
like year and a half two years where there are some plays in the stock market now that
can be treated like alts like robin hood to me is another altcoin iron to me is another altcoin coin um it just it just is um and i think if vlad doesn't go to prison or something like that
um barring anything i think hood goes to a trillion dollars in market cap
and that's just me i could be wrong um i'm bold with what I say and that's fine
I don't really like to fit in
I'd rather have my own original thoughts
even if it pisses people off
and I think actually just saying
let's all not lie to ourselves
almost everyone trades altcoins
is a step in the right direction
that they don't trade all coins so they can fit into these weird niche neurotic communities that
live on spaces for 15 hours a day and they talk about mstr and the same crap 24 7 over the last
few years and that's that's why i think like at least this space this space has a discussion you don't really see anywhere else, where it's just like, what are you seeing in the market? Be real. What do you like? What don't you like? And we pass it on over to the next speaker.
As far as a major altcoin right now that's comparable to Solana, I would say it's hyperliquid.
The reason why I say that is Solana was an attention token.
Anything that gets attention is tokenized, whether it's memes, whether it's AI.
And also the original thesis was the fucking phone.
You're putting crypto in the pockets of the people and
anyone who bought a solana phone got a couple thousand grand and you still have people you
still have people talking about like bitcoin cash versus whatever block space all this stupid crap
michael saylor's leverage instead of making money like you're worried about what billionaires are doing instead of making money
that's that's what losers do honestly they pocket watch um but anyways i think the thesis for soul
is applicable to hype because hype is actually capturing the one thing that everybody in crypto
capturing the one thing that everybody in crypto uh wanted which is the tokenization of things right
programmable money is already a thing with ethereum right the erc20s the stable coins and all that
stuff but the trade to the upside with stable coins is over like that's already done for like
There is no direct way to capitalize on that.
Maybe Circle, maybe, maybe.
That's the only thing, really, but there's no market to actually capture.
Attention was on Sol, and I've compared Hood and Sol for a long time now,
but Sol is now facing a clear tokenomics issue so now it's like
all right if you have people in crypto migrating over to equities what's the best way to capture
um flows what's the best way where you can buy an asset and benefit off of more volume more new
people coming in it's hyper liquid you now people, you now have firms going on hyperliquid to trade
oil and all that other stuff, right? And my belief is that everyone under the age of 25,
maybe late 20s or even 30, and they haven't invested yet, they're more likely to have a
phantom wallet or have a hyperliquid account instead of a Schwab or a TD Ameritrade account if it's not Robinhood.
So my thesis over the next three years is hood and hype having the same trade to the upside as Solana.
And everything else is just momentum play to add onto those positions.
You take a look at the net revenue.
If you want to talk earnings and all that shit, man, I can do that too.
But if you look at net rev for Hyperliquid, they had a net rev of close to 850 mil.
And the NASDAQ made a net rev of just over five bill so you're talking about
the nasdaq which is a multi-decade which is which is something that's been around for multi-decades
compared to something that's only been around for a few years in a market that's just growing more
and more in attention i think the better trade moving forward is still going to be crypto i
think it's still going to be crypto.
You're still going to have these shit coins that go to tens of billions.
I'm not in some maxi commuted anything like that.
I'm in the business of making money.
And I think if you focus on that, you'll save yourself a lot of time and stress.
But anyways, Joe, what's up?
At the end of the day, as long as there is fear and greed, as long as those two things exist,
there will always be things to trade for altcoins. So the case can always be made. It's really just
about the narrative. I mean, when the capital is there, when the risk appetite is there,
it's just all about what's the narrative, what's being sold to the market at that point. Over the course of the bull market, like Bobby mentioned, it was memes,
it was the ETH utility coins, it was ICM tokens for a while. There's always going to be something
that's a narrative that is selling something to the market. And that will encourage whoever has capital and has a risk appetite to come in and buy those things up. That's the only
reason that stuff like Farcoin and everything went to billions. And I think that there are some very,
very, how can I put it? There's some very sticky narratives. When you look at the story around
AI agents, when you look at the story around things like ownership tokens, when you look at
the story around on-chain private equity, you see that Robinhood is actually pushing in that
direction. You see people like Base and Coinbase pushing the, the agent narrative, you see, you know,
some of the ownership tokens, VCs are buying that they're interested in that even, you know,
up to a 16 Z. So there, there are several narratives that are still, you know, in the works.
Granted coins aren't pumping right now, you know, it's a full on bear market, but again,
it's just all about positioning. And if we're in
the business of making money, it's just about tracking these narratives and then lining that
up to when will price flip, when will risk appetite return to the market, when will there
be more willing buyers, even at higher prices for some of these assets as well. And yeah, I mean, fear and greed will
always exist. Charts will always go up and down and narratives will always drive that price action
as well. So yeah, I mean, we're in the business of making money, Wabi. I totally agree with you.
And there's many, many things in crypto where we're blessed to be on the kind of cutting edge side.
You know, unfortunately, this market hasn't rewarded that sort of like lazy, shot in the dark, spray and pray strategy that many used.
And, you know, back in 2021 and previous cycles, Those days are over. It is a little bit more competitive
in the market now, which is why we didn't see as many higher tops like we did in 2021. We didn't
have any meme coins go to $80 billion in market cap. We didn't see that, but we saw a ton of gains happen on chain. And we saw what happens when greed hits the market. We saw what happens when people are
talking about six-figure hell all the time. No one's talking about that anymore.
We see what happens when there's capital willing to just throw money at whatever.
That will come back. And I think someone was talking about
the, I think Evan was talking about the others Bitcoin chart. I'm a big, big fan of the others
BTC chart. And we just broke out of a massive high timeframe downtrend. I'm still trying to
figure out in the context of this market, what that means. What I've figured out so far though,
of this market. What that means, what I've figured out so far though, is there are these narratives
that are floating around, whether it's AI agents, ownership, privacy, meme coins, whatever,
there's money out there that is willing to buy some of these assets. And what the other Bitcoin
chart is showing us is that at some point, these assets will start to outperform. In fact, they already they already are. But the and, and just, you know, make money.
That's what we're in the business of doing, being good traders, spotting the opportunities.
And I think right now, especially going into a potential summer bottom, I think there'll
be a ton, a ton, a ton of opportunity ahead of us.
Just like we saw Solana at, you know, ridiculously low levels.
And that went up like crazy at the beginning of last cycle.
You know, I think at the beginning of this next cycle, even if it comes perhaps a little sooner than some expect,
I think there will be a ton of opportunity.
But it will start with some of these massive outperformers.
Some of these massive outperformers.
And I think, like you mentioned, Wabi Hype will be one of them.
Guys, I thought we were supposed to lose money. What is this making money? I've never heard of this
Yeah, some people have have an actual dopamine of like not not making
Go see what's up, bro. I'll pass it over to you now how are you hey what's
listening what's listening to guys i want to post something on the nest and so i wanna i want to
actually add some points to what evan said which i i'm in the same camp of evan and i want to explain
why like i think this bitcoin rally is limited i okay, okay, I just posted. Okay, so I've been using,
I've been using the stable coins chart as a macro guide for more probability on the Bitcoin
direction. So back in, back in, back in December, I did this post the stable coins chart was like hammering a key key
resistance and that was showing me more potential um upside on the stable coins charts meaning more
downside for bitcoin right now what i'm seeing just to add to evan's take like i also am in the
camp that i don't think this rally is gonna go much higher because this table coin chart is showing a potential bull flag formation.
And also I was talking about a couple of months ago, like anticipating a bullish cross on this chart.
So if price isn't able to break down on this consolidating bull flag, I think the upside is limited like Evan pointed out because of this
um supporting factor and and we continue to break up to the upside on that stable
chart if you guys can see it and and adding to the others bit the others Bitcoin
a pair I mean that pair hasn't really reached like a key area of support and
actually hasn't even filled the 10 10 gap so I mean personally I wouldn't I wouldn't touch
altcoins unless it's like for a short-term trade or whatever you know
yeah I agree with the short-term stuff man um i think you still want to be cautious until
btc is um like if you're playing alts right if you're playing alts the biggest thing is uh
the yearly open man the yearly open which right now uh it's at 87 the upper
I think we can have a rally
yeah I think 80,000, which was, yeah, I think 80,000, something like 84, 83, something like that.
To be honest, to be honest, like, to be honest, like, I mean, watching, I mean, I don't know
if you guys are watching the chart i posted the stable coin chart i mean for me has been really really accurate and i'm not only watching
that one i'm watching uh some variations i created for myself um and man like if we don't break this
uh potential bullish flag to the downside if like if this pattern like really plays out
to the downside if like if this pattern like really plays out i don't i don't even really see
80s i i just don't well then then i would say like i would say like a minimum for myself
um would be uh the april lows of last year 76 this is if you're playing alts right and you
want to catch any sort of momentum whether it's on chain
or whether it's just a little bit more on on some alt majors um but that would that would be it for
me like right below the yearly open and stuff we did the same thing in 2022 we rallied um towards
the early open during that rally that we had right when the Ukraine war was announced
and all that stuff, which, which proceeded a massive rally in oil 2018 during that,
during that year, which is the year before the pre-halving year, which is typically bearish.
We rallied around this time towards like, I think it was 11.5 11.7 K it's so
strange man like if you ask me like during any month what price Bitcoin was
trading at since December of 2017 I can look at that without even looking at a
chart so strange but anyways I want to i want to add some i want
a question for the panel i mean is anybody here like in ondas this is the drone the drone company
onds no i'm not i mean i've looked at all of them but um no i'm not in in that one okay no because i i posted one of my
higher conviction shorts so i'm really bearish on on this and i want to make it clear here on
the record like the same way i'm super bearish on iron i already explained why on iron on in terms
of ondas like we hit uh 22 2021 resistance so back in october i remember like a big key resistance
was hit we had a big pullback but then like recently in january we had a a retest of the
2021 uh resistance level and now we're creating a potential bear flag below that resistance so i mean
a bear flag below that key resistance.
And we also have, like, tested and bounced
So, for me, this is a lot of bearish confluence.
go ahead. I mean, you can jump
I don't hold my position, and I'm waiting
on why you went a short iron on as i'm waiting for to hear your your bear case on why you want
to short iron and i'm curious on your your target i mean i can't i i can't explain it right now i
mean but i did a really really detailed post of what's your number is it 30 25. don't okay i'm
gonna explain so a lot of people are pushing iron way way too aggressive and even
if it goes up like the risk to reward buying here is not there i mean iron went up what is your
target you're not answering my question what is your target no i mean my first my first initial
target i mean could put let him explain yourself it's like mike alfredo like suppression hierarchy
looking down upon people is absolutely ridiculous.
I mean, you've been digesting so much of his content.
You literally sound like a carbon copy of him.
Let the man explain his thesis on iron and I'm sure he'll get to the price.
Yeah, thank you for me so so in essence like we in 200 days we have a 13x rally i mean any asset
you can talk bitcoin whatever asset if something goes that too fast like man the risk reward is
not there so if you want to see price targets like um we could go to 28 in less than a month i i think that's
possible i think that's possible and we're creating we're creating lower highs on iron as well
and in terms of on those the same thing is happening i mean so i i just don't agree even
if iron goes up like man the rest of reward is not there like like i don't understand like your point or mike alfred's
point like you're shilling this thing to people when the the big move already happened so i mean
i'm not saying i'm i'm bullish when i run long term but i'm just not bullish at this i don't know
what you mean by long term though like you talk about trading like you know very short term uh you know i i know i i never say that i
mean i'm a long-term accumulator accumulator on the assets i like but i also because of my
technical proficiency of course sometimes i do swing trading as well to capitalize on your target
yet i mean what do you want to do i have a target i have a target i just want to say the 100 sma i like 25 bucks around there i like i mean i don't have a crystal that number gets
thrown around i i respect that but i don't think it's gonna happen i don't think we hit 34 again
but uh sure ghosty what is give me a number please please i already gave the numbers in
my detail yeah 20 28 28 is my first initial.
No, I'm telling you, I'm telling you right now, let's record the space.
No, I agree with you, Ghosty.
I'm backing you right here.
I literally heard your price target.
I don't know what Bitcoin AI guy is talking about.
I mean, you literally said 30.
I mean, I think it gets cut by 25% actually pretty easily, matter of fact.
If you look at it too, I mean, if you look at fiber,
right? I know Levinson has talked about this before, but right, what did we do in the early
2000s is we laid a ton of fiber, right? And what happened? It all went to towers, right? And then
like fiber became obsolete. The Microsoft CEO came out the other day and he said something, and I think it's a fascinating
point, and it's so pertinent to the trade, is the commodity is not the data center.
The commodity is the calculation to train the model.
The real commodity is the person that can create the most efficient way to train the
And who knows, in let's say two years,
you see a major breakthrough with being able to train AI.
And let's say it uses a fifth or even a tenth of the compute
that you're seeing the models currently needing to be trained on, right?
Then your future forecasts then greatly shift
for data center valuations, do they not no it's called
no i want to say something really i want to say something here right now in this regards the space
like you guys say i get a lot of comments oh you're not an investor you're not this you're
not that i mean if i need to show money proof of funds i'll show it my brother i'll show it anytime but crypto twitter like just
values money man i know i'm better than way more people in technical analysis and investments
than a lot of you guys so if you want me to show you how much I'm investing with, I'll do it, bro.
But I never focus on the money aspect.
But I think you guys don't respect.
It's better not to have any money.
No, I mean, I think you guys have to have something to just be in the space because all the real broke people are not on Twitter right now.
You know, they already got wiped out.
So if you're here, you know, I'll listen to you.
I get a lot of hate, man.
I never talk about money like other people do.
And I actually was pretty spot on and gave really really solid analysis of when bitcoin
was super high as why we could potentially head lower and nobody listened bro because i don't
have a big account biggest account i mean i opened twitter back in 2016 you know but i only i'm new
to spaces only four months ago i mean and i've been right a lot real quick i just wanted to
I think the big thing is if you're going to buy anything Bitcoin related other than Bitcoin,
you should try to outperform Bitcoin.
IREN is up, let's see, currently 800% against Bitcoin.
So I think I'd rather buy Bitcoin right now because Bitcoin looks more attractive than IREN.
I mean, there's bearish divs
all over the iron versus Bitcoin chart. So, I mean, my view is if you can't outperform Bitcoin,
what's the point? Well, I think the trade is AI, right? I think iron can 10x over the next three
to five years. I don't think you'll get a 10x, a 5x on Bitcoin over the next three to five years. I think Bitcoin is going to go into the 200, 300s over that same period.
So you're looking at what?
I mean, it's not sexy compared to shitcoins, right?
I mean, you're not going to get 100x on data centers, right?
Over the next three, four years.
But it's a different trade.
It's not a Bitcoin trade anymore.
If I was in the space three years ago, I would have called Iron a Bitcoin mining stock.
My previous name, before I was Bitcoin AI guy, I was Bitcoin mining stock guy, right?
Bitcoin AI guy was Bitcoin mining stock guy right and I bought the bottoms of the Bitcoin miners
uh and uh iron was one of the great ones right um it was Marathon Riot uh clean spark hut all
of those uh have ran substantially since the bottoms iron has dominated that but it's it's
no longer a Bitcoin trade it's a it's an ai infrastructure
trade and uh the fact that people keep bringing it up in the same breadth as bitcoin is not how
markets work these are growth plays and they're you know investing billions and billions of dollars
into ai not bitcoin they they're still Bitcoin. It's still a significant revenue stream.
But from a capital perspective,
I mean, it's up 16x against microstrategy, too,
hitting major resistance there.
Do you think it would outperform microstrategy?
I'm curious, over the next three to five years.
I think over the next three to five years i think over the next three to five years
it's a 510x right so well i think micro strategy could be definitely too like it's it's a different
thesis right i mean you could allocate to both right i think iron is truly a growth play right
i think uh it's still in the show me there's so much just if you go into the AI community, not the crypto community, people
are talking shit about iron saying it's this Bitcoin miner can't do shit, right?
Like that's just the reality.
Like everyone in AI is not taking iron seriously.
You know, it's not a clear winner in AI.
In Bitcoin, it dominated right like it was the number
one bitcoin miner hands down right uh there's no there's no doubt right uh and and micro strategy
it's it's more figured out right i think the the strategy is is pretty simple uh there's still a
lot of alpha there's still a lot of money to be made
And you should, if you're,
if you want Bitcoin exposure,
buy micro strategy, you know,
but if you want real Bitcoin, buy Bitcoin, right?
But I don't think you buy iron
because you're bullish on Bitcoin.
because you think it's going to 10X
in the next three to five years on the back of AI growth.
And just because AI demand, or if the price of compute, or sorry, the price of the tokens
goes down, what does that do to demand?
It goes up a thousand X, right?
It's called Jev it's called paradox right like if if but that's
not that's not necessary to like that does not imply it's not implied that it's going to happen
it can happen yeah yeah absolutely right it i agree uh but you know you have these hyperscalers
saying look we're allocating trillions of dollars the t T, not a B, right, into this, you know, this thing
called AI. I think the trade is still early for AI, right? And, you know, Jensen is saying, look,
over the next three, four years, there's going to be trillions of dollars in AI investment per year,
right? Like, you're not seeing those
flows into Bitcoin, right? I'm very bullish on Bitcoin, but no one's spending a trillion dollars
a year buying Bitcoin today. Otherwise, the price would be over a million today. It's just not there.
Accumulate Bitcoin over the next couple of decades, you'll be fine, right? You can allocate it. I'm
not saying micro strategy or iron. I'm just saying start paying attention to what's actually growing in the market.
And that thing is not Ethereum.
Bitcoin is what you buy when you already have capital.
If you're trying to make money, you start looking for growth.
Oh, Prometheus, this is a pretty good
point for virtuals, isn't it?
If that thing actually survives.
a hundred X if I've ever seen one.
If this is actually going to happen.
If that trillion or trillions or whatever pours in whenever the fuck it happens but it's not
gonna happen in one clip it happens over a decade or something then yeah that thing it's three years
it's three years oh three four years like 20 bucks easily they're already spending hundreds
of billions of dollars per year i think what, what was it, Amazon alone is spending $200 billion in a year, right?
Small Caps, what's up, bro? How are you doing, man?
What's up, Wabi? Doing good, man.
Is part three ready to come out of the Chad Wabi?
Oh, no, that's going to happen probably like next week or the week after.
So my first video was at the start of the year.
And then the video that I posted, um, this morning was like last week after,
after training, after training arms.
What's your, like, What's your goal?
Do you have a short-term, long-term goal of mine for the year?
Be on the podium of World's Strongest Man.
If you're in this market, you need another goal outside of it.
Otherwise, like, otherwise you'll just, like, regurgitate what whoever you follow says and you'll follow what they do.
Like, you have to be a free thinker and willing to have character, you know, and be someone unique and say some bullshit.
and be someone unique and say some bullshit.
So for me, I find that lifting heavy weights,
That can kill the average person.
Something that helps me regulate all the craziness
that happens from being so involved in markets.
That's not just dollar cost averaging.
Because anyone can do that.
Anyone can just dollar cost averaging to the S and P and all that crap.
it's kind of how the works maxing thing is,
you got to run with it. It's great, but, uh,
no, I'm happy for you guys. Hopefully I'm excited to see, uh, see the progress to see
what happens. But look, as, as far as the market goes, um, I'm kind of sitting here
and I have, uh, like the last couple of weeks I've, I've kind of been telling myself, it's like, there's some evidence just within, you know,
the SMP and the SMP in general of some strength also juxtaposed with some clear signs of weakness.
So as far as the strength goes, you know, there's tons of resilience through the geopolitical events throughout the entire year.
Obviously, Iran, Venezuela, Greenland, the World Economic Forum tariffs.
There's been some clear resilience, most notably, of course, what's happened in the last few days. Also combined with some of the greatest performance from the hyperscalers and the mega cap
tech names as far as earnings go. So you can make a clear argument that the market is
pretty robust. But conversely, if you look at price-wise, across the indices, there's basically been no net progress.
When I say the indices, I'll be specific.
Just S&P, the Qs, there's no net progress since basically October.
We literally have not moved since October.
I believe the first week of October, we were in the 670s.
we were in like the 670s. We're basically there right now, end of October 680s. So that has been
We're basically there right now, end of October, 680s.
a pretty clear signal of some indecision, some exhaustion as well. But as far as like the
strength case, because I'm telling myself, it's like, I can't tell if this market is just like
extremely resilient and strong, or if it's just very weak. And there's some really good points
when I said the strength, you know, NVIDIA, Microsoft, Amazon, Google,
Meta, outside of just Microsoft having, you know, a slight deceleration in their reserve growth,
their earnings were incredible. They've been unequivocally strong. NVIDIA, just record revenue across their data centers,
and just in general, like $68 and $66 billion.
Obviously, everything's driven predominantly by just demand for AI
and infrastructure and data center sales.
You know, everything is, that's just the primary growth engine.
And, you know, Bitcoin, I was talking about the CapEx,
they got a 200 billion in 2026. I could be wrong. I'm pretty sure that's the number.
Someone feel free to correct me if I'm wrong. Meta's midpoint is like 125, Microsoft almost
150. So the figures are obviously sustained and outsized investment in computing capacity, which really just outpaces any type of earlier expectation that Goldman Sachs or Blackstone, any of the investment banks we're putting out.
And it shows that like this infrastructure build out is growing at a high growth phase.
We're seeing it every day, like new data centers, new purchases of land.
And against this backdrop, I wouldn't say that the S&P's immunity to the war is telling because I wasn't around in 08. The only real war that I really remember as far as being in the markets was 2022 in February 24th or 23rd when Russia invaded Ukraine. They got America actually going to war.
But nonetheless, the index has absorbed the development with pretty minimal volatility or downside follow-through. corporate earnings power, particularly the tech guys, defense names, defense adjacent sectors
will dominate like any type of macro or energy shock. And I think that the market,
when it comes to that, it kind of prices in any, prices in like American economic exceptionalism,
which is very resilient to consumer spending and, you know, containing the inflation risk from the conflict.
Obviously we're going to need more time to see what happens with oil,
but nonetheless, that's the strength side.
And then obviously the weakness, if you just look at price, like I said,
we haven't moved since October.
Like October 25 to today, March 26, we've had virtually no net advancement.
like October 25 to today, March 26, we've had virtually no net advancement.
Range balance 6,700 is, you know, 6950, only some modest fluctuations.
So it gets like, it gets kind of frustrating, especially, you know,
I can assume it gets very frustrating if you're like heavy, heavy long.
And, you know, the multi, like a multi-month stalemate like this
characteristic of a of a vicious or vigorous bull market it kind of that's where it reflects like a
lack of sustained buying conviction and just i guess a lack of like participation um so you know
it's funny like i we have all these different, uh, my dog's going nuts right now.
Um, we have all these, all these different like cases for the market being strong and
the cases for being weak is obviously, like I said, narrow market breadth, um, like elevated
cash holdings and pretty attractive like yields right now.
And of course, geopolitics, macro headwinds are building, you got suppressed volatility.
And there's also, you know, a scenario, if we look at like these large cap tech guys,
this is something I haven't talked about either. Like there's a possibility that, you know, this kind of shop in,
in the hyperscale is just the cues that the main tech guys in the NASDAQ,
there's a possibility that they're basically like currently carrying premium
multiples that embed aggressive multi-year AI revenue ramp.
So basically like they're kind of growing
into their massive valuations
and we could kind of enter into that phase.
And I think that like historically,
There's historical precedents like you got post.com
and then you have the post 2018 fang peak.
I think that that is probably like the closest
that you can attribute it to is the 2018 fang peak i think that that is um probably like the closest that you can you can attribute it to
is the is the 2018 fang and then also you know in 21 to 23 we had some slow periods of like 18 to 36
months where just high flyers trade sideways or just modestly lower as earnings compound
and and multiples compress organically so it's going to be it's going to be, it's going to be really interesting to see. I just, I'm having a hard time kind of putting like my finger on exactly how I feel about the
market. Um, as far as tech, like, you know, we haven't even really had like, you know, things
look heavy. They've been heavy, like XLK, QQQ. Um, but we really haven't, you know, if you zoom
out to the weekly timeframe, we still really haven't pulled back since bottoming in April. Um, I mean, I don't know,
do you guys attribute like the high in XLK 152 today? We closed at one forties, you know,
12 points. What is that? It's like, uh, I mean, that's nothing. That's, that's not a,
that's not really like a pullback or a correction. We're down like 6%, 7%, about 7%, 8%.
So do I think that there's a little bit more room to come down across XOK, QQQ?
Sure. I mean, I think they're like a really good risk point.
I would say 130 would basically put us at like a 15% correction.
I'm just kind of trying to play what works right now
Have you seen KRE and also HY hyg have you seen those charts um i probably should
have no it's kerry state street right um let's see i'm pulling it up right now what are your
thoughts i mean yeah that's that's pretty hyg what do you think about the Blackstone news today or yesterday? What is what is KRE's holdings?
I believe it's regionals.
If not, I have the wrong ticker off the top of my head.
But the regionals, if you look at the regionals, regionals look horrible.
High yield, looking like it's rolling over.
I look at XLF finally starting to show cracks.
I do. I have a really tough time looking at the market and being bullish,
especially when you've seen the driver for the markets, i.e. the Dow names and the Dow
specifically finally starting to show weakness and roll over. And I have a tough time seeing the market being able to uphold these
valuations with finally energy or not really energy but you know some of the kind of the other
names are starting starting to show stagnation right like a little bit in some energy names, a little bit in staples, right?
There's, you're starting to see the kind of exhaustion where I'm like, okay, how bloated
can staples energy and healthcare get to sustain and uphold these elevated valuations while tech is bleeding? And are they able to hold it up long
enough to where then tech can hopefully kind of get back on its feet, right? And I think that's
been the big question is like, when is tech going to finally recover and rebound? And I just look at
the charts. And like you said, like, I want to stick with the winners, right? I want to stick
with the winners. I want to long the winners and I want to short the losers,
you know? And it's like, if tech is continuing to the downside, I mean, why,
why not just continue to short the thing until it shows you that it's like truly kind of like
bottoming out, or there's some like final, there's finally some like liquidity entering back into it.
That's just kind of my thought on it. Like I looked at HYG, particularly in 24,
and I was talking with Joe about it.
And I had told Joe, I'm like,
Joe, we're not in a recession.
And that was a signal for me.
You know, when we were in 24, people were super worried.
And I was like, no, we're going to be fine.
We're going to be just fine.
But now I'm looking at HYG, and it's finally coming to start to show those cracks, like I said. And I think there should be caution, like caution should greatly be urged within the broader sector. So that's kind of where I'm at. Like I'm looking at regionals weakness. I'm looking at HYG, high yield finally starting to roll over. If you look at what interest rates did today,
I mean, that was nuts. Kind of across the board, I think cracks are starting to show.
Talking about tech, what do you think about the chart in XLK? Because XLK has 11 gaps on
field and it's looking like it wants to top soon the rsa is going down like i'm seeing
potential weakness i mean it will never get a short-term spike on the xok chart yeah before
small cap goes i'll touch on that i think with the winners just let them start to show some form
of weakness i mean names that i've been in aroc exxon chevron i mean they've been straight up in
a straight line for like six to eight weeks in a
row and i understand the urge and the idea and the thought process between you know behind like
okay maybe some form of pullback mean reversion but it's a strong momentum play i want to allow
it to utilize all that energy right a multi-year trend break to the upside following compression and some of the charts and so you've
been compressing this energy this vibration let it unleash that and show you that it's like
exhaustive and once it then does then i'm like okay it's definitely gonna be time to take some profits I think we lost small cap.
Maybe his phone died or he had to take a call or something like that.
something like that but uh if you guys have anything else to say feel free to do so if not
But if you guys have anything else to say, feel free to do so.
i think this is an excellent time to wrap up today's stream man
all right i'm gonna go ahead and wrap up guys we'll be back tomorrow but if you guys enjoyed
the space if you guys enjoyed the content over the last two hours my name's wabi i go here live on the because bitcoin account
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