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Market Talk- HUGE PUMP for crypto incoming!? BTC up and stocks down!?
Recorded: Jan. 13, 2026 Duration: 1:09:21Space Recording
Short Summary
In a lively discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored the potential for a multi-week rally in the market, driven by significant announcements and emerging trends. With MSTR showing a 12% increase year-to-date and Monero hitting new highs, the sentiment is bullish as participants anticipate major shifts in monetary policy and market dynamics.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Oh, my God. Open up the limit. Walk along with razor hits.
Don't look down, just keep your head or you're finished.
Open up the limit.
Pass the coin of nourishing. Open up the limit. the stakes yeah welcome
so we Oh Thank you. Oh I'm saved by your family. Thank you. Welcome to the limits.
Stand on the razor's edge.
Don't look down, just keep your head.
Welcome to the world. yo what's going on everyone matt prometheus what's up boys it's great to have you on the show
Welcome to the limits.
hope everyone's having a fantastic tuesday wednesday wherever you are and uh quite the
interesting price action today boys crypto up stocks down um mSTR up like 12% year to date.
Man, perhaps the low is in.
We had an announcement from Trump about an hour ago that he's going to interview the CIO of BlackRock to be the new Fed chair,
which, man, I really think with Trump saying that Powell's about
to be replaced pretty soon and this guy being interviewed, perhaps crypto is going to be
that first market to front run everything, man.
Maybe this is like the start of a multi-week rally where crypto outperforms stocks.
rally where crypto outperform stocks. We saw that in 2023 from I think it was mid-October
all the way to early November. Maybe, perhaps maybe, just some bullish hopium, man. And I'm
just glad we're seeing some volatility at this time of the year. Usually the start of the year,
there's not really much price action going on until we start going into february so right now we're in mid-january and uh we're starting to see
some nice price action across the board hood is also up and uh we also had the iwm make another
all-time high uh right at the open just at below 263, I believe.
And it's so funny seeing the IWM making these new all-time highs
little by little, these single-digit half-point all-time highs
over the last week and a half.
And we'll see if it's actually a strong breakout.
We'll see. It reminds me of the Nikkei honestly the Nikkei was in a massive decade range in a massive multi-decade range
and when the Nikkei broke out which is the Japanese stock index it absolutely started
ripping I believe in 2024 and um speaking of these breakouts, these like multi-year ranges,
also Monero, we discussed that on yesterday's show. And man, this thing made another all-time
high. It's now trading just below 700. Depending on where you look at, right, it could be trading
at 670, 680. Again again depending on what exchange you're looking at
and uh we discussed this on the show whenever you have these breakouts of a coin that
is a is an actual major of 10 billion plus there does tend to be some signal in the market that
some froth is about to come when we see things like pepe rally usually that's indicative
of pretty much every single sector in the crypto market about explode whether it's ai whether it's
memes um whether it's icm even or any other sector really you tend to have a breakout whenever pepe
rallies whenever you have like a huge major rally especially one that's breaking all-time high
the market picks up on that um and if we just circle back a couple of months ago when we saw
bnb breaking over a thousand we saw the breakout that a lot of these major altcoins had we saw
pump fun going absolutely ballistic and we saw aster going crazy as well things like avantis so
whenever you have a major actually breaking out it's typically indicative of like a massive rally
incoming that could shock people and uh only a couple more months or maybe even a couple of weeks
till powell leaves right he could just be replaced just like that with a snap of a finger. We'll see.
And we had CPI today. I didn't even read the report, to be honest. I don't even think the market cares at all. Market didn't care about the payrolls report, the NFP numbers last week. And
I think the market's really just now looking full speed ahead to the new fed chair i don't even think
the market really cares about uh the fomc that next huge catalyst is pal potentially being
replaced within a few weeks or uh just waiting it out and grinding up until uh he leaves office
grinding up until he leaves office.
And as far as things on chain, honestly, it's kind of a nothing burger.
Some things have just been silently rallying, things like a VC.
That's one that we've talked about on the show here and there.
But for the most part, it's really just like these small ecosystems in uh crypto that have been rallying i know
the bags ecosystem has been rallying slowly that's like it's it's it's essentially like a a pump fund
derivative but when the market gets hot really pump fun is the place is the place to be i don't
really think that there's going to be any ecosystem that replaces pump at all whatsoever
um speaking of pump it's up like three percent on the day but uh if you go on if you go on the um
if you go on some of these lower time frames i mean it's it's been grinding up man it's been
grinding up um it bottomed out right around like christmas and it's up about 50% from the lows in a couple of weeks.
Some other coins as well bottomed around that same time like Monad.
And if alts are really going to catch a bit and on-chain is going to be hot,
then things like Pump are just probably going to be your best signal.
And it's probably best to look at the amount of volume
that PumpFun is churning out.
And there really is no other platform
that's going to offer a signal at all whatsoever.
And as far as fundamentals and all that stuff,
who knows when it's going to break out.
Probably not going to happen until BTC makes a new all-time high.
Probably not going to happen until BTC makes a new all-time high.
Anything stupid can happen from here until BTC makes an all-time high.
I think we had things like Farcoin rallying like crazy well before BTC made an all-time high after the election. remember far coin was trending going into november and then almost everything on solana had that huge
like flash crash wake of like 60 to 70 percent and people were like ah ai is a scam what happened
to solana like like i'm not gonna bid this thing and then everything just made new all-time highs
within a week and a half on uh on solon um, monad still really nothing going on there.
Um, as far as base goes, I don't know. I don't know when anything is going to trend on there
until virtuals just, uh, ignites that next flywheel of their Ponzi. But, um, without leaving,
they're probably going to ignite the crime candle.
And I'm going to be focusing on on on pump fun, to be honest.
And we mentioned this on the show a couple of weeks ago.
We're now getting to that point in this whole four year cycle thing where if it's been three months since the top and this is going to be a bear market, then you need to see some follow through ASAP.
When you start getting to a point where it's like five months, six months after the top,
and you're still trading above 90K, you're putting in volume above 90K,
then truth be told, the bottom's probably in.
Truth be told, the bottom's probably in.
Bottom's probably in.
Bottom's probably in.
Most whale sale activity happens within the first four to five months of the top being put in.
That's just something that I want to say.
These spaces are recorded.
When you start having the Fed balance sheet starting to trickle up for the first time in basically almost five years now, it's been over five years since COVID, I think the Fed balance
sheet peaked out going into 2022. And it finally bottomed out sometime last year, I think around
like the summertime, and it's been trickling up. And now it's starting to curve up to the upside in a really big way.
And you also have Trump doing his thing with the mortgages and all that stuff.
And slowly but surely, like what 2025 was supposed to be, at least for crypto, that
has a high probability of happening, I think, more so than not.
I think consensus is still probably that 2026 is going to be a bearish year.
And, man, I have an issue with this whole unemployment thing.
I don't really think the market cares, man.
It's Project Zimbabwe, and they're just going to put in a bunch of stimulus into this thing it's just a matter of
like how are you gonna play the crypto market and it's likely gonna be as rotationary as it's ever
been but uh i want to welcome you all back here it's kind of like my opening um statement we're
now starting to see crypto catch up and we're even seeing crap like eith catching a bit here if if it
was just like btc marking up to range highs and everything just like doing nothing um then i'd be
like yeah this is just a little complacency rally and i had mentioned this yesterday but i i i do
believe that this is one of like the the last last times over the next 10 years where you'll see BTC DOM over 60%.
And I'm comparing that to the Dow Jones and the NASDAQ.
When the NASDAQ ETF, I think that was in 1973.
And then after that, tech was the dominant sector compared to industrials.
And that's kind of how I see alts versus BTC where, yeah, the Dow Jones still comprises a huge amount.
But, you know, the NASDAQ is the outperformer.
Now, I'm not saying things like Sol and ETH are going to take that slice of the pie. I'm just saying that the altcoin sector, after almost five years of down only,
is probably going to have a huge bounce back.
But you're still going to have to look for new tickers and all that stuff,
in my opinion, for exuberant upside gains.
I am liking what I'm seeing in the equity markets, man.
The fact that the IWm continues to trickle up stocks probably bounce by the end of the week
uh it's probably going to be a good year for markets in my opinion a q1 is typically indicative
of how the uh rest of the year is going to be usually the way Q1 ends is the way Q4 ends.
That's been the trend over the last 10 plus years.
But anyways, guys, I want to welcome you all back here.
Hope you guys had a fantastic rest of your Monday yesterday.
I hope you guys are having a fantastic Tuesday.
Welcome back to Market Talk brought to you by BB.
My name's Wabi.
We're going to go ahead and yap over the next 30 to 45 minutes I kind of want to keep today's
show a bit short I think there's gonna be a lot more yeah yeah man yeah I think
I want to I want to save some of the energy for Friday. I think Friday we're going to have lots to discuss.
We're going to have lots to discuss on Friday.
Is it going to be gooding season, Wabi?
Is that what you're trying to imply?
No, bro.
You know what's crazy, bro?
I had someone in the gym yesterday be like,
oh, brother, you're not as locked in as you were, man.
You're not locked in.
And then I deadlifted yesterday was deadlift day and I did five places for almost 20 reps and both of my
knees are like a bit bloodied up and I squeezed my teeth so much that, like, I chipped my tooth.
Like, I chipped on my— Do you not use a mouth guard, bro?
I did. I did. I did. I used a mouth guard.
And then, like, I had chipped one of my—
I just chipped a tiny piece of my tooth after I took off the mouth guard.
I squeezed that hard.
But, yeah, whatever, man. like, no, it's not,
it's not grooming season.
It's being like locked in season.
You need to avoid dates.
Like you need to avoid coffee shops.
You need to avoid arcades.
Like every dollar that you spend
could essentially be a $20 bill.
But again, I have no obligations, bro.
I have no wife.
I have no kids or anything like that.
So I can be fully tapped into this.
I mean, we had Tina here.
I think it was on Friday.
And I'm like, Tina, you know,
if we hook your blood pressure into the market,
we could
uh actually make some new highs and that's kind of the way i'm seeing the market tap in
tap the market with my adrenaline levels and it is what it is man we'll see some uh
exciting price action and it's kind of what we're seeing man that's kind of what we're seeing
slowly but surely on-chain volume is trickling back up uh we did have the former nyc mayor eric
adams release a shitter and he rugged it within like two hours three hours he pulled like what He pulled, like, what was it, 3.5 mil?
And I guess you can call that, like, the Libra Echo Bubble, right?
Around this time last year, we had the president of Argentina launch a shitter, Libra,
and that pulled so much liquidity from the market, but it just seems like that weird Fortnite
soul cabal or whatever
launched that shitter
and they did what they did, but
if it were
actually bad market conditions, the entire
market would have just took it a
dump, kind of like what it did
after
Libra, but
anyways, man.
If you guys can go ahead and show some love to the space.
Excuse me.
Show some love to the space and all that stuff.
You guys already know what to do.
Just click that spaces tab.
Once you guys do that with our profile pictures, you'll see that nice link.
That says x.com slash i slash spaces.
Hit the like button.
Hit the repost button
Helps bring the show more onto the algorithm and all that good stuff
Whether you're bullish bearish hit that like button hit that repost button and we're gonna go ahead and cook for you guys
I'll pass it on over. I'm not sure Matt or Prometheus
Prometheus spoke first. I don't know if you want to go first man and just and just yap um you know i i despise asking questions man i i really if there's anything man that i
do not like yeah we don't ask questions yeah dude bro we don't ask questions dude like the
thing that i probably dislike more than asking a question is the smell of pickles.
I cannot stand pickles or seeing people eat anything with mayonnaise or mustard.
It's not human.
But he is a relish enjoyer.
Relish? Dude, that's Tucker, man.ucker loves his pig feet and grit and grits wait how did mustard
much mustard's catching strays what's wrong with mustard what's not nice fine wood green mustard
on a bratwurst oh there's nothing better bro put some onion on that yeah and look man and put some
pico too i'm telling you now you're, I've never been to a baseball game,
but one of my, like, worst nightmares would be having to sit in a crowded stadium and listening to people chew on a fat glizzy with mustard.
Yikes.
Okay, no one said not a ballpark dog.
Imagine the smell.
But speaking of the smell, Matt, the market, the market, man, is that your signal, bro?
Because, I mean, I'll say this, man.
If we look at 2022, if we look at 2022, then we know, right, going into February, we kind of all realize, like, it's going to be a shitty year.
It's going to be bad.
2018, kind of the same thing, especially for crypto.
And, I mean, dude, it's been over three months since the top.
You circle back to three months after the 2013 top, 2017 top, 2021 top.
And usually, like, this is the time where, like, things are in full force bear mode i mean even even in
even in the equity markets like you do not see the iwm continue to trickle up more and more and more
you don't see the s p trickle up more and more and more um this like this this this pattern man this whole pattern is just yeah it's good i
think it's going to shake out the four-year cycle people man whether we make a new all-time high by
like 10 and then do the bear or just grind up the entire year it is it is a bit different, man. So a lot there.
I just shared my MSTR up in the nest.
I think that one hard lesson that we keep having to relearn is not everything tops out or bottoms out at the same time as Bitcoin.
And this was a hard lesson learned by the MSTR DGENs in late 2024.
You know, they were bidding up.
They were buying $350.
They were buying $400.
They were buying $450, even going to $500 a share of MSTR.
And, you know, not a lot of people were brave enough to say it,
but that was an absolute blow off top.
And you got ratioed if you even thought about it, let alone tried to say it, but that was an absolute blow off top. And you got ratioed if
you even thought about it, let alone trying to post it. But that was a blow off top over a year
ago. Now it looks like MSTR might be bottoming before everything else too. So if you look at
MSTR's valuation, it's trading at less than one price to book.
So everyone gets too interested in MNAV.
I really don't care about MNAV.
I only look at price to book for companies.
I want to see how much of a multiple you're trading at, your assets.
Are you 3X your assets?
Are you 10X your assets?
Are you 300X your assets? Are you 10X your assets? Are you 300X your assets? Or for some reason, are you a quality company that are trading less than one your assets?
That could be an absolute smash buy.
And MSTR, in my opinion, is right there.
So if MSTR, if you were able to, you could instantly liquidate all of MSTR's assets and their Bitcoin and sell it, and you
would make money. That's what it means to trade less than one price to book. So all their, you
know, settling up their debt, settling up their obligations, liquidating everything from the
chairs to the computers to the couches to the Bitcoin and if you sold it all immediately you would make money
so to me like yeah the market has completely uh mispriced microstrategy once again uh everyone's
everyone's making fun of the company they're calling on sailor to get liquidated they all
the all the dgens have long left and i think now i, I think, I think throughout 2026, you'll have plenty of
opportunity to buy, but I'm not going to miss this moment right here. This, this looks pretty
juicy for me to step in. So that's what I did. And I think to your other point about
broader markets and unemployment, I think absolutely TradFi and big money pays attention
to unemployment. And I certainly do too. And what we got last reading last week was we got a green
light. Now we can make excuses and say, hey, the Trump administration has replaced the head of Bureau
of Labor Statistics not once but twice. We can say these numbers by the government should be
taken with a grain of salt, if not completely fugazi. But at the end of the day, a lot of big money trade assets and these equities off of what the BLS reports. And both
BLS and ADP said jobs are hanging in. It's still a positive that hasn't slipped into negative
territory. And so we bid, you know, we ride with that. I know I've been very bearish since last fall because that was the direction the data was going.
But I kept saying all the way up until last week that, hey, don't sleep on the first week of January.
Don't sleep on jobs week.
We got to pay attention to what gets said.
And what got said was green light.
So we bid, you know, I mean, if you're not going to pay attention
to changes in data, then you might as well just DCA and turn it all off, right? You might as well
just, you know, just DCA Bitcoin, maybe a little gold and the S&P 500 and then ignore everything
if you're not going to pay attention to that's a strategy. We also forgot to mention this, but like you speaking of the Nikkei
You know the Nikkei also
Made a roaring all-time high today not only the Nikkei nice, but you also had the euro stock index
also blasts into price discovery
and you also you also have the Chinese index, the SSE.
That's the Shanghai index, right?
Oh, Shanghai.
Yeah, that also made an all-time high.
So you have global markets going into price discovery.
into price discovery and usually as the s&p tops out as the s&p tops out and again this was the
trends um late 2021 right you had those previous indexes already in downtrends as the s&p was
topping out and honestly dude i think crypto bros are idiots. They pull up their stupid charts and they think the absolute worst is going to happen or this crazy melt up is going to happen.
And they don't.
Right.
It's always it's always extreme.
Yeah.
And it's either zero or.
Yeah. yeah and it's either zero or yeah and it's like
man like the the crazy melt-up bros from like 2024 right i called for a melt-up in in 2025
right from like april and i thought we were gonna rip roar and in a way we did kind of have a melt-up
but for stocks not really crypto but like the crypto bros that were calling for this like everything bubble
after like february march of 2024 um and all that stuff right others btc blasting and surprise
discovery all this sort of thing right like they got super super super doomerish and like they're and they're kind of like cautious right like the
like the i call them like the dollar store plan b's remember this dude this plan b guy
um it's like who can forget imagine plan b but for like all coins right and they're saying to
be careful but like i mean i'm not calling for a huge melt up or like some
crazy rally but i'm just saying like the trend at least for the short term is still to the upside
if you're seeing the nikke continue to be risk on and mind you the nikke topped out in october
right so if the nikke which i mean it's basically what the Nasdaq is for America, but for Japan, if you have something that topped out right as the QQQ topped out, then isn't the Nikkei front running the Qs?
And if anyone tries to make a stupid chart with what I just said, please tag me, man. Please tag me. I might not post charts and all that stuff, but like, like I do look at charts and pairs and all that stuff.
I'm just, I'm really lazy when it comes to that, man.
I just, I don't know, man.
Well, I mean, yeah, there's a lot of, there's a lot of supportive data out there that, that kind of give us a little confidence that now's the time to be bidding.
And you're right, looking at other markets can definitely help you gain confidence in
U.S. shores right here.
But without a doubt, America remains the biggest consumer on the planet.
the biggest consumer on the planet. And we were not wrong to be worried and skeptical and cautious
since all the way back to last summer. Our jobs reports, our labor data, it was getting worse
and worse and worse. And finally, you started seeing major corrections, especially in Bitcoin,
but you started seeing major corrections all across the board as big money was taking profits out all the way into the holidays.
And what we kept saying was, we need to see signs that it's turned around. We need to see signs
that it's bottomed. Well, just last week, that first week in January, it was a massive jobs week.
in January, it was a massive jobs week, we got signs that maybe the bottom is in.
And so, you know, you can wait, you can wait to reports, you know, okay, one month does not a
trend make, I hear that. You can wait till beginning first week of February to see not one, but two
not one but two really strong signs that jobs have stabilized. You could wait till post-earning
season to make sure that the blue chips and Mag-7 and all the big S&P 500 companies are still
raking in the profits. You could wait to see what Trump does with Jerome Powell or what the Supreme Court does with tariffs.
You could wait until after the fact of all of these catalysts.
And you'll be buying Bitcoin.
You might be buying Bitcoin above six digits.
You might be buying S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell, new all-time ever highs.
You're going to get the price of all these assets and equities at what you deserve if you wait.
Or what I'm trying to do, I see a reversal in trend.
I see, wait, this month was not like the other past five.
And if this is right, everything's mispriced.
You know, would I prefer to buy Bitcoin at 70K or 60K?
Absolutely.
But if the data keeps improving, it's not going to happen, right?
We came down from 125 to 80, more or less.
We would still need more bad months of data to get from 80 to 60. And if we're not going to have
more bad months of data, whether we believe that data is completely truthful or not, let's put
that aside. But if we don't get bad catalysts, we're not going to get
more downside prices. We're just not. So yeah, am I taking a risk? Absolutely.
SCOTUS could decide, hey, tariffs, not only are they legal, but the presidency has the authority to issue more if he so chooses.
Earnings could absolutely surprise to the downside,
and these companies start missing their expectations
and issuing more bearish guidance for 2026.
And February's jobs report could see an uptick in unemployment in a neutral or even negative report on jobs growth.
All that's possible, but at that point, you might as well just DCA and turn it all off, truly.
Yeah.
I think this is very similar now to that range that we saw in 2024.
I just think it's probably going to be a bit more –
Which one was that?
I remember from March of 24 to August of 24, that kind of range.
That was like 200 days of sideways.
Yeah, I remember. Yeah, that's kind of what i think is is going on here to be honest um and you saw the s&p continue to go
like crazy right yeah so like we could we could just range from like 85k to like 105 and 105 would be like 70 70k 69k which was our top end
of the range that we tested a few times and um i mean all can do whatever man like
i think alts are still going to be rotationary to be honest and um i man i don't think it's well now it's an interesting uh you know you know me i i don't
really i don't play around in the alt space i i had some i had some shorts and puts on eth when
it lost 4k but like that's that's is about that's as much crypto exposures I've ever done in the last couple of years.
Anyway, bear markets, no matter how long they last, Wabi, bear markets show you who's strong out there in crypto land.
Whose price is holding in, whose market cap hasn't completely been, you know, cut in half or, or worse.
Because if you see the survivors of the bear market are going to be the thrivers in the bull, you know that.
Yeah, Solana story was, man, I don't really think there's ever been a story like Solana.
I think they only had like six months worth of runway because a lot of their stuff was tied into Alameda.
Like most of their runway was tied up in that whole like FTX contango.
and they made it out the other side like barely over a year later after they hit eight bucks
And they made it out the other side.
they were back to 200 that's that's the wild part man it's it seems like since 2017
the the the grind up after the bottom shocks people when we bottomed in December of 2018 at 3k I
remember man like you had crypto streamers crying on stream and six
months later you were well above 10,000 again ETH was above 400 bucks and then
we we hit that next bottom the next bear market at 15K.
And a little over a year later, we were already back above 60,000.
Isn't that crazy?
Like, imagine after FTX, like the same day FTX implodes,
and someone tells you, hey, in 15 months, in 15 months, right?
In 15 months, Bitcoin is going to be above 60 000 again they would have
called you a crazy person man they would have called you a crazy person and the narrative back
then was that all right coinbase junk bonds are yielding 20 so coinbase is going under
binance might be going under so the entire crypto industry is going to implode.
In my, Wabi, I think you remember in 2022, in my prediction thread, I said,
Bitcoin price will be above 40k by next halving. And that got ratioed. And I got called such a
bull tard and an idiot for that.
It went way past 40K.
You're right.
It went to almost 60, or it did 60.
Yeah, it was shocking, man.
It really was shocking.
I think the most shocking part was you had Pepe going from zero to over a billion in less than a month.
And by the time Pepe got to like 20, 30 mil market cap,
anyone that was active on Twitter knew about Pepe.
They all knew about it.
And that was what, five months after FTX? Like just over five months after FTX?
Like just over five months after FTX?
So whenever BTC bottoms, even locally,
like something massive happens.
BTC bottomed out in August of 2024.
You had all these AI and meme coins going crazy.
Peanut the Squirrel, Chill Guy, AI-16Z Go, all happened within a matter of like...
My favorite was Moo.
My favorite was Moo.
Yeah.
I'm a Moo enjoyer.
That happened a few weeks after the yen carry trade bottom.
And then the year before that, August of 2023, a couple of months after that,
you had Solana and a bunch of other stuff going crazy um look at what happened after svb right btc uh bottom that 19k you had
pepe happen um after ftx ftx bottom then you had bonk and all the ai going off so
and all the ai going off so after every btc bottom right let's just think like perhaps 80k was like
the like the bottom right that was like the higher low then something crazy is probably
gonna happen you had white whale happen right that thing went from zero to 200 mil plus um
so yeah probably some exciting stuff to be occurring in the crypto market
I would say Matt
I'll say something
definitive
let's say
if the top of unemployment is in
at least for the
first half of this year
if not for 2026
if 4.5% unemployment was the top
then the bottom is absolutely in on Bitcoin.
Absolutely.
You can't have any fears and worries about the labor market
if it stays at 4.5% or improves.
So again, that's why I was going back to like,
yeah, big money and Tradify, they do care about the labor data.
They do pay attention to those numbers.
And it got slightly better.
Well, what if it keeps getting slightly better?
That means Bitcoin and everything else is underpriced, plain and simple.
all right prometheus give me your most bullish take as much as possible tell me how all chud
jacks are going to get blown out and um that the s&p is going to 20 000 by the end of the year
should i just start screaming into the mic dude you need to scream so much that like
bro tina is a character man like the mic scratched off do the cracks the the the you're
hitting the threshold on the mic like it literally can't even output what is being input like it's it's crazy yeah yeah that's a that's uh that's a real thing man
but we're we're we're in the middle of january now going into that second half and
man someone's gonna be taken out to the woodshed someone is about to get too far ahead of their
skis there's gonna be there's a lot that's happening right now in crypto and
wabi you know what my level's been bro what's my level been i've been saying it a lot the mustard
zone well which is 92k yes the mustard zone yes 92k there it is yeah that's the mustard zone
86 on the downside 92 on the top yep yep those are kind of like the lines in the sand
uh across the board right that's like but why does they suck right now man why why does base
suck like there's nothing to do there right now well what's going to happen is coinbase is probably
i would imagine if you see a pretty substantial rally by bitcoin and this doesn't look like it's going to,
you know, plop back on its, you know, plop back down to the lows here and we can kind
of sustain 100K.
My guess would be that base is going to do their airdrop and that'll create a nice little
stimmy for a good amount of the on-chain enjoyers.
So that, I mean, that's probably pretty big.
I'm sure that that's what some people are probably waiting on.
Granted, you generally want to kind of be front running those narratives.
So maybe now's a great time to be buying base stuff because it is sucking.
I don't know.
Like, I mean, you mentioned Wabi.
It's like when we see you know breadth within these markets and
we start to see majors finally put in you know something meaningful put in some meaningful price
action to the upside um you know on chain is is you know right around the corner generally
prometheus not not interrupt you bro but bro fucking pirate chain is up 70
uh since yesterday when we were talking about it dude i was talking to uh i was talking to
barry about it barry um and barry had showed me the order book on me C and there was like $1 of liquidity,
um, on the ask side. So it's like, there's like, no,
there's zero liquidity or depth within the order book. Um,
it's just getting pushed around. And the thing is, is like,
you gotta be careful with stuff like that because if you like,
you can't go into heavy,
if you try to exit your bags and you
went in with size you're never going to be able to get out of that position um so do be careful
like if you're listening and you're thinking like oh i'm gonna go like fucking ape like you know
five figs into into pirate chain on mech c you're not gonna be able to exit your position um you
got to be you got to be pretty careful.
The correlation between that, it, and MSTR is pretty substantial
from what I've seen.
But man, I mean, I'm bullish.
I'm bullish.
Wabi said, give me your most bullish take.
Brother, I'm kind of, you know, I've been thinking to myself,
if this really is like this, potentially it has the make to be a quote unquote super cycle.
It really does.
You do have, you know, obviously numbers are just, I'm sure getting, you know, a facelift and Bot uh in the back end before they come out and you know if
trump wants to increase spending defense spending by you know like 80 percent year over year
um you know the united states is capturing massive, massive, massive, you know, areas in regards to resources to have direct access, to not have the bottleneck of dealing with the BRICS countries.
The list kind of goes on and on.
You kind of think that this maybe has the makeup to do numbers.
And I brought this up.
And I brought this up.
I've mentioned this on these spaces before.
I've mentioned this on these spaces before.
The bottom that's in right now is not a bottom unless it's one that we never, ever, ever,
ever see these prices again.
So it's one of two things for me, right?
I'm still high timeframe bearish.
You need to get above 100K before you can be high timeframe bullish, in my opinion.
you need to get above 100K before you can be high-tempered bullish, in my opinion.
And even beyond that, you really need to accept above 105 to 107. That's really important from
a structural perspective. We're leaving the range, though, and we're seeing volatility within these
markets. I cannot be more excited and more thrilled to not have to sit in that godforsaken 90 to 92k range
for another eight freaking weeks that was horrible that was awful i'm so excited to be trading
outside of the range hopefully i hope we see a trending move to the upside um you know you're seeing solana does look a whole lot better than ethereum
you cannot ignore that um you know we're seeing kind of like this illiquid slop go on in regards
to alts but as of right now i do like what i'm seeing Even if alts don't look the best, I do like what I'm seeing.
You cannot ignore the fact that, okay, Bitcoin is breaking out of its range.
Altcoins are, we would think, see a pretty nice move to the upside.
So it should be only a matter of time i'm i'm
i'm pretty excited equities look fantastic oil stocks are chatting uh i'm long oil stocks if
that doesn't you know of what i said just doesn't make that clear um we see you know a lot of a lot
of signs that okay we should be seeing a little bit of breadth within this market.
I'm still high timeframe leaning bearish, I will say. I cannot get that out of my bones. I've seen
what I've seen, and I cannot unsee what I've seen. But as of right now, man, things look pretty good.
We'll see if on-chain starts heating up in a meaningful way. Does the market have enough liquidity to really allow for some serious on-chain runners? That's the question that I want to see next because I have no question that majors are bitcoin's probably going to be revisiting 100k at this point um
you know ethereum 3600 maybe 38 maybe a little bit higher than that solana like 170 180 um
but you know hyper liquid looks pretty good for like maybe even 38.
What about 67, man?
It looks good for 67.
Hyperliquid?
Yeah.
Oh, brother, new highs.
Yeah, I mean, there is that confluence up there at the highs.
The level we came into, I marked it out for the Discord, but you have your linear 2618 and your log 1618 um kind of right there at that level
between 65 and 70 so a nice area of confluence for sure at that level you cannot you cannot ignore it
um man i i look at i look at manad is another name i've been kind of keeping my eyes on.
I've been looking at Manad.
I've been looking at some other names like, dude, even freaking Pepe.
Pepe just had a monster move off the lows.
Some names look pretty decent here, right?
So XMR looks like you could easily go to like probably 800 at this point um
yeah man yeah so should we be expecting a uh a new risk reward and fire new all coin video bro
a deep dive they've had some pretty nice hit rates man those videos were pretty gas in q3
yeah hey bro they still are gas what are you saying you know the the anytime that you mentioned
that when you mentioned a new ticker man and it would explode you know i know we're waiting for
that yeah i just i need to brush off the dust bro i think there's been i need to
you know lube up the gears if you know what i mean like i need to reinvigorate the systems
um yeah there needs to be some stimulus uh yeah to be some dude you need you need you need you need to find on-chain viagra
is what you're saying bro that's what you need bro dude i don't need anything of the such uh i
don't need anything of the such though i will say a little bump of cialis before the gym can never
can never hurt um but with that being said, I, I need to get back on chain
because if we are going to see some fall through to the upside from Bitcoin, there's going to be
something that runs on chain. There's no, there's no question about it. The real question is, is
like how hard can things run? Um, but you're still going to have some but you're still gonna have some you're still gonna have runners you're
still gonna be able to catch uh some pretty nice moves across the board and i needed i need to just
i need to dive back into the on chain brother i just do i don't i i look at my one apprehension is like those high timeframe,
like index charts for crypto total.
Yes.
Total three.
Yes.
Total two.
Yes.
Like those look like massive distributions on the high timeframe,
like massive distributions,
but that doesn't mean we can't have windows of opportunity.
Right.
And so I think a lot of people are probably getting a little too eager in the high high time frames in my opinion i still
think that jobs numbers are going to deteriorate like i don't know how like unless they just want
to make this a completely fraudulent system which it that's that's my worry for me i mean exactly i worry that they're not
allowed right it could be a completely fraudulent system no joke i i'm i'm not i'm being serious
like unless the jobs numbers start coming in privately that it's so bad that they can't
that it's so bad that they can't fake it.
Like I worry that if all it takes is like,
hey, we think that the participation rate decreased,
therefore the unemployment number decreases.
If that's all it takes to get that number
to be the headline you want,
wow, they can do this the rest of the year.
They really can.
Yeah, you can't. I mean, you can't. I get it. No, I get it. I get it. I'm not like,
I'm not like, Oh fuck, you know, like everybody I know can't find a job. Like,
you know, everybody's going to be living in a basement, you know, that whole like
do my scenario kind of, you know, mindset thing. I'm very flexible with my theses. And like,
I think that's where a lot of people just get completely caught off guard in this space is
they just get wrapped up in their egos. Well, I think, well, where I think, see, I'm, I'm totally
in agreement with you too. I think our labor market is deteriorating as well, but where I
think you might be proven right. And it's coming up quick in less than two weeks, but earning season.
If we get, you know, typically we get anywhere from call it 77 to 80 percent of S&P 500 companies meet and beat their earnings.
If we get a big miss on that, then OK, cat's out of the bag.
They were lying.
BLS is full of shit.
You can't have a bad earnings season and somehow unemployment's getting better.
Like someone was lying.
So it'll get found out one way or the other.
and you might be proven right in the long run absolutely it's going to be one of those things
And you might be proven right in the long run.
Absolutely.
where like the tech technical guys are going to be like it was all in the chart if if you know we
head lower and then the fundamental guys are going to be like these stupid technical guys like they
have no idea you know it's going to be like one or the other you know it's going to be like
these fucking idiots you know these these 20 year old technical analyzers like they don't know what they're talking about.
It's going to be one or the other, you know, and just remaining flexible and fluid with your positioning is going to be the most important way to approach the markets.
I agree. Like you look historically. Unemployment starts, you know, like putting in that rounded bottom and starts to head higher
it doesn't stop right but could trump just like i mean he just literally went in
to a country and abducted a president you know um and who's to say he's replaced he replaced
the head of bls not once but twice and. And now the new guy's in there since post-shutdown.
I mean, who knows what his marching orders are.
What's up, Bobby?
No, I was going to say, like, who's to say he just can't, like,
go into a computer and revise the numbers, you know?
Oh, I'm sure he does.
Well, that's what we're saying.
You know. That's the worry. Oh, I'm sure he does. Well, that's what we're saying.
That's the worry.
So like, you know, next is first week of February.
If we get like, you know what, non-farm payrolls was plus a measly 23,000 jobs.
But wait, we think that the participation rate, the amount of people who are looking for work, we think it decreased again. So unemployment decreased from 4.4% to 4.3%.
Hooray. It could literally just be that easy. And the only way we're going to know it's
is if earnings tank. If the majority of SAP 500 companies,
when they're all reporting their earnings, we take the aggregate.
But if we miss, like 75% is our 10-year average,
77% is our five-year average. If those miss,
we know someone was full of shit.
we know someone was full of shit.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
No, I.
Yep.
I mean, you're right.
It's.
They can only give it a facelift before so long before it turns into a Kylie Jenner,
if you know what I'm talking about.
Shut it up.
They're on duty, bro.
Yeah.
Hey, she says she's never had plastic surgery
that's that's that's the whole on-chain market dude on-chain market is like so she's never had
any work yeah the on-chain market man is friends with benefits it's fun for a while but you gotta
move on at some point yeah and i have 15 wives in a you know never mind i'm not gonna go any further
you had a harem bro you had a harem that's what that's what on-chain markets are bro um
like i i i don't think there's been a single ticker on chain that you could have honestly held for like over a year outside of dude outside of pepe like that
that's literally only pepe bro but it's literally pepe that is like the only entree name that it's
like it's like that meme of like pepe just like bruised and bloody and like beaten to shit and he's like i'm good guys yeah it's it's like uh
it's like the only ticker that you could have held for over a year and outperformed the btc
you know like over over a year is what i'm saying right the lifespan of like an on-chain ticker
as far as consistent outperformance against bitcoin is like four months um that's like the the
the like the the the high the high end right usually it's like one month two months usually
it's like a month or two um like if you look at 2024 right like virtuals for example not many tickers that year launched that
year and had that huge app performance against btc virtuals went from like 20 mil and tge all
the way to 5 billion that's escape velocity that is honest that is true escape velocity
um so you know once kiwi and zurp happen under trump which
i do think it's going to happen like i i truly feel like there's going to be this cataclysmic
crash that is going to force kiwi and zurp to happen um whether it happens this year or next
year like there's going to be a massive correction
at some point.
And that bottom, like that bottom is going to be the one where like you actually want
to have some capital.
Um, that's going to be the mother of all cycles, in my opinion, man.
But, um, anyways, I think it's a great time to wrap up unless you guys have anything else,
uh, to share or want to say.
No, I'm good.
I'm just going to smack down.
I went to this world market and I got some homemade cheesecake, bro.
I'm about to smack a little bit of this down about to go to the gym
and then tonight i'm gonna eat some fresh fish
bro you're about to wolf what you're about to you're about to wolf a cheesecake then yeah bro
cool geez man dang um you kids today i i wish i could
Cool.
Jeez, man.
Dang.
You kids today, I wish I could.
Fishing.
I had no idea Kansas had fish, man.
I thought it was just like pigs.
It's flown in fresh from Florida, bro.
It's Red Snapper.
It's going to be fire.
I see.
I see.
I see.
I see.
Well, anyways, guys, I'm going to go ahead and wrap up.
Matt, Prometheus, thanks for coming on.
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Insights
P
Crypto markets are showing interesting price action with a notable 12% increase in MSTR year-to-date, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment.
hope everyone's having a fantastic tuesday wednesday wherever you are and uh quite the
interesting price action today boys crypto up stocks down um mSTR up like 12% year to date.
Man, perhaps the low is in.
Trump's announcement about interviewing the CIO of BlackRock for the Fed chair position could signal significant changes in monetary policy, impacting crypto markets.
Man, perhaps the low is in.
We had an announcement from Trump about an hour ago that he's going to interview the CIO of BlackRock to be the new Fed chair,
which, man, I really think with Trump saying that Powell's about
The discussion suggests that crypto may be the first market to react positively to upcoming changes, hinting at a potential multi-week rally.
that first market to front run everything, man.
Maybe this is like the start of a multi-week rally where crypto outperforms stocks.
rally where crypto outperform stocks. We saw that in 2023 from I think it was mid-October
Monero's recent all-time high, trading just below $700, reflects strong market interest and potential bullish momentum.
ripping I believe in 2024 and um speaking of these breakouts, these like multi-year ranges,
also Monero, we discussed that on yesterday's show. And man, this thing made another all-time
high. It's now trading just below 700. Depending on where you look at, right, it could be trading
The mention of Pepe's rally indicates a broader market trend where significant movements in meme coins often precede larger market shifts.
is a is an actual major of 10 billion plus there does tend to be some signal in the market that
some froth is about to come when we see things like pepe rally usually that's indicative
of pretty much every single sector in the crypto market about explode whether it's ai whether it's
The anticipation of Powell's potential replacement is creating a speculative environment, suggesting that market participants are positioning for upcoming volatility.
incoming that could shock people and uh only a couple more months or maybe even a couple of weeks
till powell leaves right he could just be replaced just like that with a snap of a finger. We'll see.
And we had CPI today. I didn't even read the report, to be honest. I don't even think the market cares at all. Market didn't care about the payrolls report, the NFP numbers last week. And
The current on-chain activity is described as a 'nothing burger,' indicating a lack of significant developments, yet the potential for future growth remains.
grinding up until he leaves office.
And as far as things on chain, honestly, it's kind of a nothing burger.
Some things have just been silently rallying, things like a VC.
The mention of Pump's 50% increase since Christmas highlights a significant recovery in certain altcoins, suggesting a resurgence in market interest.
grinding up um it bottomed out right around like christmas and it's up about 50% from the lows in a couple of weeks.
Some other coins as well bottomed around that same time like Monad.
And if alts are really going to catch a bit and on-chain is going to be hot,
The speaker predicts that BTC dominance over 60% may be a rare occurrence in the next decade, indicating a shift in market dynamics favoring altcoins.
like yeah this is just a little complacency rally and i had mentioned this yesterday but i i i do
believe that this is one of like the the last last times over the next 10 years where you'll see BTC DOM over 60%.
And I'm comparing that to the Dow Jones and the NASDAQ.
The discussion around Q1 performance being indicative of the year's trend suggests a bullish outlook for the markets, with potential for continued growth.
The fact that the IWm continues to trickle up stocks probably bounce by the end of the week
uh it's probably going to be a good year for markets in my opinion a q1 is typically indicative
of how the uh rest of the year is going to be usually the way Q1 ends is the way Q4 ends.
The speaker emphasizes the importance of market sentiment and price action, indicating a growing interest in crypto as a viable investment.
I hope you guys are having a fantastic Tuesday.
Welcome back to Market Talk brought to you by BB.
My name's Wabi.
The anticipation of significant discussions on Friday suggests that upcoming events could further influence market dynamics.
We're going to have lots to discuss on Friday.
Is it going to be gooding season, Wabi?
Is that what you're trying to imply?
The mention of on-chain volume trickling back up indicates a potential resurgence in market activity, which could lead to increased trading opportunities.
if we hook your blood pressure into the market,
we could
uh actually make some new highs and that's kind of the way i'm seeing the market tap in
The assertion that if unemployment remains stable, Bitcoin's bottom is likely in, reflects a bullish sentiment towards the cryptocurrency's future.
if 4.5% unemployment was the top
then the bottom is absolutely in on Bitcoin.
Absolutely.
The speaker's bullish take on the potential for a super cycle in crypto indicates a strong belief in significant market growth ahead.
all right prometheus give me your most bullish take as much as possible tell me how all chud
jacks are going to get blown out and um that the s&p is going to 20 000 by the end of the year
should i just start screaming into the mic dude you need to scream so much that like
The closing remarks highlight the ongoing engagement and excitement within the crypto community, suggesting a positive outlook for future discussions.
But, um, anyways, I think it's a great time to wrap up unless you guys have anything else,
uh, to share or want to say.
No, I'm good.
