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Market talk- HUGE STOCK MARKET CRASH!! What’s going on!?Crypto strong?
Recorded: April 4, 2025 Duration: 1:17:31Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent discussion, market analysts highlighted a significant decline in the S&P 500, which has dropped 20% in just six weeks, raising concerns about a potential bear market. Despite this, there are optimistic projections for Bitcoin and gold, with expectations of growth as investors seek safe havens amidst market volatility.
Full Transcription
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I'm going to be there. I'm going to be there. I'm going to be there. I'm going to be there. I'm going to be there. What's up, guys welcome what a day in the equity markets what a day what a day and
funny enough twitter is down and it's not working at least on my end i can't even use my personal Um, but what a day in the markets, guys. What a day, man.
The S&P 500 is down 20% in less than six weeks.
That is absolutely unheard of.
I have not seen equities react like this in the seven plus years that I've been in markets.
Not even in 2022 did we see activity and volatility in this
fashion, right? In 2022, the S&P had a drawdown of 25%. And that took roughly 10 months, given the
vicious rallies that we had leading all the way up until our bottom. And over the last few weeks,
all the way up until our bottom. And over the last few weeks, equities have barely caught a bid.
We caught one tiny bid when Tesla rallied like 40% from its low when Tim Walz was on stage,
basically saying how Tesla is a horrible company and how he bought the stock and it's down and
he's glad that the market cratered. And outside of that, we haven't really had any sort of relief bounce
at all whatsoever. You have Apple down 22% from its year to date open. 2022, Apple bottomed out
after it had a drawdown of 25%. NVIDIA is down 40% from its high. It bottomed that in 2022 after a 60% drawdown.
But what I'm trying to say here, guys, is we've essentially have started to speedrun
what occurred last bear market for equities.
And when I take a look at crypto, I mean, we don't really have an FTX.
We don't have an Alameda.
We don't have a Genesis.
We don't have Grayscale. We don't have an Alameda. We don't have a Genesis. We don't have Grayscale.
We don't have 3AC.
We don't really have that loop of leverage going on outside of perhaps Michael Saylor.
And I'm not sure where strategy stock would have to be trading at in order for a huge
unwind to happen.
But, I mean, guys, when you go from 6,100 and change on the S&P down to 5,000 in five weeks, like, something has got to give.
And we had Powell, and I'm calling Powell's bluff here, to be any sort of cuts, any sort of stimulus, and no cuts at all until
minimum June, because tariffs might be incredibly inflationary. I'm calling out
Powell's bluff at this point, because he is going to buckle, and Trump is going to have his way.
into buckle and Trump is going to have his way. And I guess like not to fear monger or any stuff
like that, but I've never really seen the equity markets bottom out on a weekly close.
Over the last couple of years, they typically bottom out during the first half of a week.
They usually bottom out during the first three days at the start of a new week. So if equities hit $4,800, $4,700, or $4,900, I personally wouldn't be shocked.
I guess the biggest elephant in the room here, guys, would be how is crypto going to react
over the weekend?
And more specifically, how is it going to react during the initial start of the week,
How is it going to react during the initial start of the week, which is, again, since the ETFs have gone live, typically when most of the volatility happens, on majors at least, on majors.
As on-chain, you'll always have some anomaly.
You'll always have some bull market somewhere, right?
I think some macro guy said it before.
There's always a bull market somewhere. There's always a bull market somewhere.
There's always a bull market somewhere.
But outside of that, guys, I guess what I have to say is I'm genuinely shocked at the
velocity of this downside price action on the equity markets.
I truly am.
You're talking about a 20% plus drawdown across the board in less than six weeks.
And when you have someone that's in charge of putting the brakes on the market flat out say that he's not going to do anything,
and you also have politicians now talking about the stock market, which historically when they do, it's typically an inflection point to either the upside or the downside.
Something has got to give.
Something has got to give.
And I really, truly, truly do not think that cuts will not happen if you see a forehandle on the S&P and Powell goes on the presser to yap.
I'm calling out his bluff.
The space is recorded.
It's April 4th, 2025.
I'm calling Powell's bluff here.
I think he's going to cut.
I think there's going to be some sort of stimulus.
Janet Yellen jumped in to save the market in October of 2022 when she injected liquidity
into the treasury market.
And again, I mean, we take a look at indices today. They drew down over $3 trillion in one
single day. I think a little over $3.5 trillion wiped off in the stock market today. And yesterday
was just under $3 trillion. I think the Fed balance sheet is currently at $7 trillion.
So you practically have nearly the entire Fed balance sheet essentially get wiped away
during the equity price action over the last couple of trading sessions.
And I think this is going to resolve, and it's going to resolve quickly. But one thing to take note of is, you know,
there hasn't really been a market where we rallied 20 plus percent in less than a year outside of
the COVID economy, right? With access stimulus, Kiwi and Zerp. If we were to rally back to all
time highs before the end of the year, we're talking about a
22% rally from where we're at right now. And I just can't really see that happening unless we
have some sort of insane QE or sort of silent QE small stimulus, right, as Yellen did in the Treasury markets back in late 2022.
And I think even long term, right, like, I mean, whenever you see stocks,
when specifically the indices down more than 20% historically, if you want to, you know,
compare just market trends as a whole, a good place to buy some stocks just in general is whenever you see
the indices down 20 plus percent, right?
That is actually value.
That is actually value here.
So we're going to have Donnie on the show.
Matt's here on the show right now.
We're going to have Donnie and Shell come up later.
If spaces actually work because like their Twitter is down right now X
is down right now I'm not even sure if people are gonna be able to see this
space right now it's so odd right like you have this Elon news that he might
not be a part of the government anymore and how doge is probably already done at
this point and then Elon comes out of nowhere and says that there's
going to be a hard and short recession right and i mean it's been like a little over 24 hours since
he said that and now x isn't working amidst one of the craziest weeks in all of stock market history
but either way guys if you do me one small
and tiny favor yes and go ahead and show some love to the space and the best way
to do that guys is by clicking the spaces tab and right up above our pfps
right up above our profile pictures there's a little link that says x.com
slash I slash spaces yes and go ahead and open that up smash up the like
button and smash up the repost and retweet button guys only takes a small amount of time only takes
a minimal amount of effort and also helps bring more eyes and ears to the show helps bring more
eyes and ears to the brand and once again guys um if you end up like leaving the space, there's a possibility that you might not be able to
come back because you'll probably see something that says space is unavailable or unable to
fetch space. At least that's what I'm getting on my end, right? On my personal profile,
I'm not able to see that. So we are in for some interesting times, guys, some very, very, very interesting times.
And one thing that I will that I that I will that I will put up here on the show for a talking point is that we have Bessent right from the Treasury effectively going on air and saying that Bitcoin is a store of're probably going to erase a lot of what
happened during the previous Biden economy to bring forth the Trump economy, which, as
he says, is going to include some pain into the stock market.
And if we recall back in 2022, the individual that was talking about bringing forth some consumer pain in asset prices was Jerome Powell.
So the phrase of 2022's bear market was, don't fade the Fed.
And now it's don't fade, don't fade Bessette or Bennett.
I don't know how to pronounce his last name or just don't fade the Trump administration, basically, in that regard.
And Trump even went on air yesterday and said that the stock market was a sick patient.
It's undergoing an operation, but it's still alive where it made it out alive.
And here we are trading a bit lower than that.
a bit lower than that but uh i still remain i still remain uh my position and being heavy uh
being heavy cash being heavy stables and just playing some on-chain stuff here and there
some scalps here and there um and whenever we do get that green light which in my opinion is
gonna if you see a four handle next week, man, man, I think you buy some calls.
Like, it's so tempting.
And you see the VIX, you see the VIX like 15% away or whatever it is, like a little over 15% away from retesting the August 2024 highs.
testing the August 2024 highs.
And that, in itself, caused that huge rally that we had for five straight months across
all markets.
So as we've been discussing on the show, whenever you have these downturns under a Trump administration,
it's typically just rip the Band-Aid off and get everything over with.
But I want to see what the guys have to say
man man donnie i'm going to pass it on over to you bro because i know it's morning where you're at
brother how are you feeling welcome back to the show what the hell is going on
and man thanks for coming on dude this is going to be uh quite the discussion so i want to welcome you up
donnie and shout out to you guys that managed to get on the space as uh twitter is severely lagging
right now this is wabi bringing you market talk by because bitcoin so we're gonna do what we do
best and ransom banter about all things markets crypto crypto prices, dubious speculation,
and more importantly, what in the hell happened in the stock market today? It seems like that's the headline across the globe.
This is like peak, peak, peak mindshare of a market downturn, man.
So, Donnie, what's going on, brother? Talk to me.
What's up, Wabi? Man, markets are lookingurn, man. So Donnie, what's going on, brother? Talk to me. What's up, Wavi?
Man, markets are looking good, bro.
The prophecy is slowly unfolding.
It's pretty much just,
it's pretty much what we saw in 2023,
obviously to a much larger degree
and much more crucial, pivotal moment
for markets in general, right?
But the context is kind of similar.
We saw the stock market continuously going for lower lows
and BTC maintaining an accumulation structure
throughout that time period
and actually pumping to new all-time highs
50 days before the stock market, right?
That was catalyst-driven.
But also if you break down the chart on like a four-hour chart you can kind of see rotation out of the stock market
into btc there right uh with each little you know lower dip on b uh on the stock market you were
seeing these um these mini pumps on bitcoin's chart right right before the black BlackRock ETF was approved by the SEC, right?
So that kind of indicates to you
that some people were getting, you know,
text messages or whatnot
before the announcement,
rotating their stocks into BTC,
who knows what, right?
But that chart was looking super strong,
super suspicious
while the stock market, you know,
continues this 10% correction.
So it's kind of similar at the moment, right?
It's validated today by BTC, you know, literally not budging,
even though there's liquidity at 79k to grab,
which I think is still potentially on the cards.
While the stock market nukes, which is crazy, right?
So it's kind of like BTC is basically, in my view right now,
gearing up for one big catalyst, who knows what it is, and two, front running the Fed pivot, which is coming, bond markets, pricing and rate cuts. right and we've broken down how in 2019 you know they literally labeled um their their form of
easing not qe when their balance sheet was going up right so you know expecting something similar
to accommodate for the debt refinancing right especially lowering rates right that's that that's
the main thing that um i think is gonna drive these markets higher. Literally, I'm looking at the US two-year.
I was looking at it last night.
I posted it in Discord.
Didn't post it on X.
I'll just quickly throw it up now so it makes sense for the viewers.
But basically, you've got the US two-year, which kind of directly tells you what the Fed is going to do with rates.
the US two-year, which kind of directly tells you if the Fed or what the Fed's going to do with
rates. And this is like the most topped chart I've seen probably in a very long time, right? I just
chucked that up on the spaces. This is like a weekly topping structure on this US two-year
yield with like, you know, a local distribution as well, like on the shoulder that we just formed,
and you've wicked the range low,
what lies below is basically nothing
all the way up until, you know, about 2.75%, right?
Current federal funds rates are 4.25 to 4.5.
So if this chart is headed to that level,
you know, around, let's say July,
I'm thinking July or June,
because, you know, every quarter at the end of the quarter,
the Fed projects their dot plot or whatever
with these rate cuts.
And for the last two quarters,
they've said they're only seeing two rate cuts
for this year.
But I believe they could even do up to a 50 basis point cut
in this May meeting,
let alone 0.25% seems to be pretty likely in my head,
according to this chart. If this chart is going to continue playing out this distribution,
they're going to lower rates effectively. But at that Q2 dot plot projection, I think they're
going to project even more cuts after they already do the cut in May. So markets are going to...
Well, I think BTC is going to absolutely roar
if all of that plays out
over summer and July and all that kind of stuff.
So literally the thesis is just playing out.
We've kind of been watching this since December,
but we've had a lot of data points to go through
to actually start to unravel what's going to happen.
And it's just slowly happening here.
And it's just really good to see the first point of confirmation for me in my eyes of
stock market going down 17% or whatever, and BTC still maintaining this accumulation model.
It's literally front running this Fed pivot that's inevitable at this point.
And Donnie, we actually have Michael michael gaia on the show man michael what the hell is going on
the market brother it's been uh about a year and a half since we last spoke i believe i think
um yeah it's been a minute i saw i saw you guys doing a space I'm like I'll pop in that's been a while since you and I chatted I even man I've been I've been great
honestly I was kind of worried about markets back in February like early
February ish when I saw celebrities like Kanye talking about crypto and then I
saw Scott Bessette I don't know how to say his last name percent Bennett
whatever right something Scott B and he goes on don't know how to say his last name. Bessent, Bennett, whatever, right?
Something Scott B.
And he goes on CNBC and he's talking about how, you know, don't be shocked if there's some pain in the market.
And I took that as, all right, this guy is basically going to be Powell in 2022.
My target for the SPX on a positive note is 5,400.
And on the lower end 5000 and the most extreme case that i
can see is a retest of the late 2021 high at 4800 and we completely speed did a speed run
of 2022 within weeks and i'm fucking shocked honestly michael i. I'm not, man. I'm not. I'm not.
No, no.
What are your thoughts, man?
I alluded to this before, even like a few weeks ago.
I said this feels a little bit like February 2020.
And I think the headline was, worst two days since the COVID crash.
So, first of all, the fact that Besant, however his name is pronounced, he made that comment that we expect to unfreeze the housing market or something along those lines.
That was also code for they're going to crash the market to save bonds, which ends up lowering
30-year mortgage rates, which is, by the way, exactly what's happening.
Look, it's been very sharp, and a lot of people have given me flack for the last year and
a half, two years for this credit event thesis, which again, nobody's really been able to counter me on this point that small caps are saying default
risk is real, while credit spreads are saying they're not, and one of them is going to be wrong.
And I think now it's very clear that credit spreads are wrong because they're starting to widen.
This has been sharp. I was listening in a little bit on the Bitcoin discussion. You guys know that I'm definitely not anti-Bitcoin. I'm just anti what I believe to be wrong narratives.
I actually think Bitcoin can diverge against the risk-on asset side like it did today. And I say that no different than how I said it back in October 2023 when I was peak bearish and wrong thinking a credit event was imminent then before the Fed front ran it by saying six cuts are coming.
This is about credit spreads.
It always has been about credit spreads.
The disconnect between small caps saying there's default risk and junk debt saying there's no default risk.
And to the extent that gold has been sending a warning the whole time and to the extent that gold, like Bitcoin, is, which I do agree with when it comes to Bitcoin, is a counterparty hedge.
You know, credit spreads widening tell you default risk perception is rising.
Default risk perception rising means counterparty risk is rising.
Which is probably why Bitcoin probably will do well on a relative basis and actually can diverge this time around.
And may actually outperform gold.
And this is coming from me, the guy who's been saying gold is sending a warning and I
was a raving lunatic bullish gold and only recently now I'm saying it's going to turn
around and that gold is next to sell off, which I very much believe is the case.
I don't know if this is over yet.
And I'll tell you why I'm saying I don't know if this is over yet.
I think you very possibly get a short-term bounce because the sentiment is like black bearish at this point.
I don't see how Trump can walk away that easily from this.
He's got to kind of dig his heels in.
I can see the comments from a lot of his base, and a lot of his bases are all saying the same thing.
They're all saying it's going to be painful, but this is necessary.
They're all saying it's going to be painful, but this is necessary.
Like he has a lot of support from people that are not in the markets like us that are saying, yeah, you know what?
This is what we voted for.
So I don't think he can back away that easily.
I think he's probably massively miscalculated that he's doing this when the starting point of optimism and leverage is as high as it is.
when the starting point of optimism and leverage is as high as it is.
So if we go back to the original point that Besson maybe telegraphed this by saying we're
going to unfreeze the housing market, which was basically code for cause 30-year mortgage
rates to drop by causing stocks to drop and forcing a flight to safety into government
debt.
Well, the problem is that assumes that they know that there's a stopping point and that there's a floor that if it goes really deep into that, it will cause some real damage to the economy.
And when your starting point for leverage is as high as it was prior to this, and when the optimism was as extreme as it was, that's very hard to have confidence in that the market would just go down 10, 15 percent and that's it.
Right. This is this is classic tail event risk that's,
that's out there. So, um, yeah, it's, it's painful. I will, I'm, I'm personally,
I'm personally enjoying this only, I hate to use the term enjoying this, but you know,
I've gone through a lot of hell because my own funds, which are rules-based, which a lot of the
haters don't seem to understand, um, had, they-off in long-duration treasuries when tactically they get a signal to go risk-off.
My JoJo bond ETF got a lot of attention today volume-wise
because suddenly it's a highly performing bond fund
that got the treasury trade right prior to this,
having rotated out of junk debt.
I think junk debt still has a long way to sell off.
I think credit spreads have a long way to readjust.
And if that's the case,
then as much as there may be a temptation to play a bounce, I think it's going to be a very
dangerous bounce. I think this will take some time to flesh out. Does that make sense? I know
I threw a lot out there, but just the thesis has never changed for me, guys. And it's not like I'm
a perma bear. It's just the divergence has never been resolved. Now, people will say, by the way, oh, you've been wrong about the credit event and what happened to reverse carry trade.
This is because of tariffs, not because of the yen.
Okay, excuse me.
Look at the yen.
The yen has been rallying in advance of this.
It is the reverse carry trade.
I think the tariffs accelerate it because as you're seeing with tariffs, what's happening, the dollar is weakening, which causes the yen to strengthen, which causes a repatriation of all that borrowed carry from Japan that's gone into Nvidia, which is getting demolished.
Because the reality is it was never about AI.
It was about margin that was coming from all parts of the globe playing this AI narrative, which with due respect made no sense.
And it made no sense because the majority of the stock market, small caps, never participated in the so-called bull market.
sense because the majority of the stock market, small caps, never participated in the so-called
bull market.
Yeah, I remember that was a talking point that we were having back in the spaces back
then, right?
Like, talking about the IWM and all that sort of stuff, and any time the IWM rallied against
the broader indices, the trend kind of halted there for a bit bit and we ended up chopping for quite some time, man.
Yeah, listen, it's halfway through a lost decade.
I don't know if people really get what's happening.
Aside from the fact that small caps never,
they never made an inflation adjusted high, right?
If I could hop in on that point,
we haven't spoken in about a year as well
and I am just nodding till my head flies off with everything you're saying.
Lost decade, yep.
Gold and Bitcoin might outperform, yep.
Indexes, you're talking about a complete rejiggering of global trade.
Yeah, there can easily be another repeat of the 2000s where S&P 500 and NASDAQ largely just grind sideways.
Yes, there'll be pits. Yes, there'll be peaks. There'll be valleys.
But it could be a sideways grind for another five plus years, as you say.
Yeah, absolutely.
While hard assets go up only and everyone's scratching their heads like, wait, how did that happen?
Right.
Yeah, I find myself just agreeing with every one of your points.
And by the way, sorry,
real quick,
what I will say,
so again, just to be clear on my view on gold here,
I got all these people saying, oh,
you missed a huge bull market on equities.
It's like, part of my language, fuck off. I said gold
was sending a warning, oh, we got bullish on gold, gold
outperformed equities. Stop.
I was wrong on the S&P, I've not been wrong on small caps. I've been not wrong
on the junk debt thing. I've not been wrong on the reverse carry trade. I've definitely not been
wrong on gold. Now, but just real quick, I think gold is going to go through what could be a nasty
correction because aside from the fact that for the first time in this entire rally, the retail
sentiment is incredibly bullish, I keep going back to, and this is being missed by people,
and I don't know how else to say it.
Can you look up in the nest there, Michael, for your gold point?
Like, look at that.
That is a – take the ticker away.
Just remove the ticker.
Yeah, of course.
That is a 10-year blow-off.
Yeah.
Look at that.
Okay, but hold on.
So – and this is – as much as I'm – my posts are purposely loud, and some people love the persona, some people don't, but the
reality is I'd rather be talked about than ignored. This is the social media game. I didn't get to a
million followers across all the different platforms by being the CFA charterholder with
a suit and a tie being all professional. You have to be a little bit entertaining. That's the reality
of building a business and getting attention. I'm a big fan of behavioral finance. Okay. And there is this, this concept. It's very
well documented called the disposition effect. Okay. Now in 2011, one of the ways that I got
sort of well-known in 2011, I was very adamant saying there's a summer crash coming. I said
that back in June, the article is still there on Seeking Alpha. It's called the summer crash of
2011 or the great readjustment. Here comes the S&P downgrade of U.S. credit quality. August 2011, stocks go down 17%.
Treasury yields collapse with that.
In August, as the media was getting on me for being right about that crash,
I then said, I think gold is going to top and it'll start breaking down in September with a lag.
And I said exactly the reason back then I'm saying now, the disposition effect.
This is very well documented.
When investors are faced with uncertainty, not my opinion.
This is based on studies.
And they look at all their positions in a portfolio.
When you have all these different positions and they're red and you're uncertain about markets, you don't want to sell that which you already have a loss on.
People don't sell their losers first because they want to get back to break even.
Psychologically, you have losing positions. You want to get back to break even. Psychologically, you have losing positions.
You want to get back to break even.
So you don't want to sell your losers if you're having a margin cost.
What do you do?
You sell your winners.
Well, guess what?
There aren't that many winners the last several months, except gold.
It's not treasuries.
So gold mechanically, I think, needs to sell off because it's like, well, shit.
I mean, I'm already down hard on NVIDIA.
I'm already down hard on Coinbase.
I'm already down hard on all these different things.
Gold's up.
Let me take some of those gains and sell that
just to cover my margin goal.
And if you get enough people doing that at the margin,
then yes, gold sells off hard.
Now, I don't think that that's a secular bear market.
But I think gold is due for some weakness because of
that very point about the disposition. It's a behavioral
argument. It's not me hating on gold.
It's me appreciating
how people respond to volatility.
Yep.
Yeah, everyone's
fleeing to perceived safe haven.
Gold's one of them.
Yeah, and now,
again, I still think this is
early because credit spreads are only now starting to crack.
A lot of people have said to me,
as I keep saying, treasuries will stand alone,
and they are.
Proxies for treasuries like TLT
or things like that, they haven't really had a big
up move in price.
Right. Because you haven't had spreads blow out yet.
They're just starting.
Just wait till the U.S. Treasury tries to run some bond auctions.
Just wait. Let's see how many actual buyers
there are out there in the broader markets and international.
But just to be clear on that,
there will be buyers because money will get scared of the counterparty risk.
And the U.S. government ultimately has a money printer.
This is why the term risk off, let's just take a step back.
What does that term even mean, risk off?
Nobody ever defines what risk off is.
I mean, I'm one of the few guys I think that actually does.
The risk that's off is not all risk.
The risk that's off in the term risk off is default risk off,
which is why when there's fear, money flees into treasuries, into gold, maybe now potentially into
Bitcoin, into the utility sector, into the dollar, because they don't default.
Michael, if I could add on your earlier point with Japan, this is the problem that the U.S. finds themselves in.
Because you're right.
In previous recessions, in previous bear markets, you would assume U.S. treasuries are the risk-off safe haven that people can flee to.
But what if you're Japan?
What if you're South Korea? What if you're, you know, what if you're
South Korea? What if you're XYZ nation in Europe? All of a sudden U S treasuries are not nearly as
enticing as they were previously because U S markets just got what? 10%, 15%, 25%, maybe even
higher, more expensive to you. You've got your own economy to worry about. You've got your own,
uh, uh, currency to, to fuss about. You've got your own currency to fuss about. Maybe you're trying
to beef up your defense industry if you're Europe or South Pacific Asia. But all of a sudden,
that's why I think gold kept cashing a bid because they're looking for other safe havens.
There's no doubt that gold has been a beneficiary of scared money that did not want to go into treasuries.
I've made that argument myself.
I said gold has been a beneficiary because of the fears around government debt.
No disagreements at all on that.
But gold is not a big enough market to absorb real scared capital in a tail event.
And I'm not arguing from an investment perspective.
I'm talking just behaviorally.
And by the way, I've been seeing it.
I've been noting it on X.
I saw it seven weeks ago.
I said, something's different this time.
I started doing the Phoenix stuff, which is, again, my representation to the point where it's like everywhere for me.
It's the representation of the flight-to-safety trade in treasuries.
You could see as early as seven weeks ago that yields would drop when volatility and equities rose, when default risk perception was rising.
It's just for a trade. I'm not arguing from a long-term perspective.
And everything you're arguing about Japan and all these other countries, okay, all that's fine, but the reality is the U.S. government still is the reserve currency.
The U.S. dollar is still the reserve currency.
Yeah, sure, still the reserve currency, but 25% of all U.S. treasuries, the 10-year, is held and traded and bought by international entities and countries.
Over 25%.
And you, not you, excuse me, the U.S. just said,
hey, it's going to cost you more to do business with us, everyone.
From the biggest nations down to the uninhabited islands it's going to cost you
more to do business with us so i don't see them just as quick to put their next uh cash flow into
u.s treasuries they're they're probably going to spend some of that inside their own borders maybe
and you know and each country will uh figure that equation out differently maybe it's maybe it's a
a slot to bitcoin and gold maybe it's a slot to defense spending maybe it's a slot to Bitcoin and gold. Maybe it's a slot to defense
spending. Maybe it's a slot to their own bond market. You name it, fill in the blank. But
I think US treasuries in the eyes of international countries and companies just raised up the risk
ladder. My counter to you is how much of that international money has gone into private credit, has gone into junk debt, and isn't the argument even worse there then?
Right?
So it's like –
Right?
Anything that's not U.S. Treasuries is a problem when the U.S. is trying to roll its debt.
Yeah, exactly, which is why all these arguments around treasuries are no longer safe haven have been bullshit the last two years.
It doesn't make sense. U.S. government owns us through taxation.
Full stop. You say that the U.S. government is riskier than corporate credit is asinine.
It is literally asinine because the U.S. government's got the weaponry and got the IRS. I don't care how many people Doge ends up causing layoffs on, right?
But regardless, look, as far as the here now, you know, it is a, this is a very tricky juncture.
Because, yeah, you've had what looks like a crash.
You have sentiment black bearish, which, as I said, I would bet you that you're going to see Black Monday trending this weekend on X.
And I would bet you, and I would bet you, and I'd bet you that it's not going to be Black Monday trending this weekend on X. And I would bet you that
it's not going to be Black Monday. It might be Black Tuesday.
Okay, but I'm
just saying it's like, you know,
this is a very nasty
period. I've talked to financial advisors.
I'm saying like, what have you done the last several weeks?
Most people are like, nothing. Yeah, no shit because it happened so
quickly. My strategies, my
JoJo bond ETF, you know, got it
right. I mean, that's how I designed the signals. And this time the opportunity set treasuries are responding the right way.
Right. But, you know, it's like, even if you have a bounce, there could be a lot of selling into it.
So I just think we're in a new cycle. It's one that we'll just have to adjust to all of the
so-called easy money and leveraging, I think, is going to bite everybody in the ass at some
point. I'm a deep believer in the idea that these types of sell-offs end when retail capitulates.
The problem with the art, in terms of like a real secular law, okay, and I could be wrong on that,
but retail has not capitulated because you can see that there are creates happening on ETFs that are levered on the long side.
It's not like people are buying inverse ETFs here to play the decline.
They're buying 2X and 3X funds on averages, on single stocks,
and the create process on the ETF side basically means they're allocating there.
It's like, to me, that means you haven't broken the buy the dip mentality yet.
When you break the buy the dip mentality, that's the law.
Did you find today's U.S. unemployment and labor report interesting?
It had a slight tick up on unemployment,
and the talking heads are already saying,
oh, it's due to the participation rate rising.
But everything about tariff announcements wasn't factored into this latest report. All eyes are going to be on
the next one in a month. Yeah. And, you know, and I don't know about you all, but I'm skeptical
of anything that comes out of the government as far as data goes. You know, right. Would they
ever tell you it was a negative number? I mean, you know, you want to get a real sense of the
health of the U.S. consumer and the U.S. economy.
You look at small caps because they're not as multinational as large caps, and they've sucked wind for five years.
So I don't give a damn about what they don't break the numbers.
Russell's back to the 2022 lows.
Yeah, but hey, being bearish has been wrong.
Two-year retracement.
This is the thing I've been banging my head on
which again
I like to think I'm a rational person
my strategies
their rules base has nothing to do with my view on things
they'd run the exact same way
if I die tomorrow with my mutual fund and my two ETFs
I bang my head on the wall
on this
you're telling me it's a bull market
but it's a bull market that's been in large caps driven by a concentration bubble in
Mac seven. The majority of the stock market, the number of stocks, take, take market cap out of it.
The number of stocks. Okay. There are many more smaller businesses than, than larger businesses.
Of course. So the majority of the stock market, the number of stocks are back to 2020 levels. And you're telling me that this has been a bull market?
90% of the stock market underperformed two-year treasuries. Think about that. 90% of the stock market had had less than 5% gains or negative going back to exactly what your point, 2022 or even.
Yeah.
So it's like, I don't, I, you know, I've used that line many times before a rising tide
that does not lift all boats.
When a rising tide does not lift all boats, everybody drowns because that was a thing
back in the day.
Okay.
Back in the day, meaning pre COVID apparently where a rising tide, meaning equities as an asset class, would lift all boats.
Meaning every single stock in the asset class.
Every single instrument in the asset class.
Except small caps this time around?
Can we just take a step back?
All these people that say small caps don't matter.
Meanwhile, they're working for small businesses.
Are you guys kidding me?
You're going to tell me small caps don't matter when...
How much of the US GDP is based on small business activity, which is the small cap equivalent. Like, really, guys? So like, this has been a distortion that's been ongoing and been very painful. For me, this guy who's like been a lone voice, you know, people saying I'm a perma bear. No, it's not a perma bear. I want to see the divergence resolve. The divergence between
small caps and credit spreads. I've
said all along, I think Japan, the reverse care trade, is the
catalyst for this. I keep showing now
with a wink emoji, the
disconnect between the VIX, volatility,
and credit spreads. That can close.
That's the credit event.
Nothing has changed, in my view, because
the divergence only got worse.
We'll see.
But I appreciate you guys, and all of you guys should not want to see 24-7 trading.
I know it happens in Bitcoin, I get it.
But you guys should not want to see 24-7 trading so we can actually live our lives as the market's closed.
And enjoy, instead of having to deal with what the hell Trump's going to do next,
and what Apple's price is going to go down and all this stuff.
Which, at the end of the day, it doesn't matter, folks.
Like, put things in perspective.
I know it's painful, but for God's sake,
nobody knows when it's their time.
Just fucking live.
Mike, I've actually been
getting in the best shape
of my entire life. Dude, crush it!
Yeah, yeah, dude.
I'm trying to actually start a family
in the next like five to ten years and before i do that like i want to get in the best shape of
my life and get absolutely as jacked and as strong as possible um you know dude like i was doing some
skull crushers with 165 about seven weeks ago and on 10th rep, my tricep absolutely just contracted and I ended
up getting some bruising and I couldn't even, uh, lift a 10 pound dumbbell. And now I'm back
at like 90% strength. All thanks to God, man. And you know, what I find, Mike, what I find,
I'm, I'm, I'm, I don't know if you like being called Mike brother. It's just not,
just not Michelle. I'm good.
But, you know, what I find is, you know, I've been in this market and markets in general since December of 2017, right?
You know, Bitcoin went to 20,000.
Like, everybody in my workplace was talking about it.
I'm like, all right, let me see what this shit's about.
And what I find is throughout the volatility and all the narratives and all the yap that people talk about,
what I find is in order for me to stay solvent
and not go crazy in this market,
I need to deploy the same sort of tenacity
that's required to be in these markets long-term.
I need an outlet, a physical outlet
to exert all of that to not drive myself
crazy yeah of course and and honestly man like redlining at the gym going absolutely fucking
crazy um you know smashing prs that's what i find that keeps me sane in these markets because
you know as well as i do uh michael like, when you enter some of these spaces, some of the shit that people say is atrocious, right?
Like, oh, here comes the next 1929 crash, and they pull out the S&P chart from, like, the 1800s or whatever.
And it's like, bro, go outside.
Go to the mall.
It's even deeper than that, right?
It's, like, it's comical because, like, everyone's and everyone ends up trolling everybody
for no reason. Like, okay, you don't like the persona,
that's fine, but, like, you actually talk to me, and you actually
see the actual real research, it's like,
dude, I'm just, I'm just like, everybody else, I'm just
trying to grind and bust my ass, and I got
stuck in a nasty cycle for my funds. Okay, fine.
I can't control the cycle, that's why I got on the health kick,
right, with the fasting and the working on all this shit.
The, the, so you
still have all these people that just are trolling and insulting.
It's like that meme of South Park,
where you get this,
I forget who it was in South Park,
where it's a very overweight person
and they're clicking on a mouse
and it's like, oh yeah, she's a six.
It's like, really guys?
Stop trolling.
Get your ass in shape.
Stop worrying about your portfolio.
Your health matters more than anything else.
I never really believed in the idea that health is wealth
until I started going down that rabbit hole,
taking that red pill.
Nothing matters, man.
All this shit is nonsense unless you actually are healthy.
And the only way to get healthy is to get out there
and get after it, period.
Mike, something that opened up my perspective is
when myself and the rest of the Because Bitcoin team went over to Miami, the Bitcoin conference in 2023, we went to some like private exclusive events or whatever, where a lot of like influencers, which I won't name, were doing hard drugs.
And I thought to myself, like, man, you look at these guys online, you'd never think that, you know, they have families, they have it made, they have all these properties. But looking at them and meeting them in person, they're literally hanging around escorts,
sniffing cocaine, drunk out of their minds, and they can't even form a proper sentence.
And I think to myself, all these guys, they all had dreams and aspirations. But once they started
making money, it kind of distorted them. And a lot of people say, man, I can't wait for Bitcoin to hit 200,000, 100,000, 500,000.
But the thing is, on the way there, shit happens.
Life happens.
Family members get sick.
You can get sick.
And you might not actually be in the best shape by the time you get there.
So it's like whenever you find yourself in this position, and this is what I tell myself, whenever I find myself in a position that I can still participate in capital markets, and of course, we're also a small cap company.
When I find myself in a position that not only I can conduct business, but also facilitate time to look at these markets, I consider myself among the top 1% of the entire world because of what we're able to do. And that's the top markets.
And you know as well as I do, Michael, that the average American barely has money to get by if they were to get let go from their job.
And their 401ks haven't really been doing the best.
They just haven't.
Yeah.
And I hate to say it.
And these are the people that then attack others.
Everyone's always doing the shit, attacking others.
It's like, focus on yourself.
It's like this whole Jordan Peterson.
Clean your own room.
Like, focus on you, right?
It's like, that's, anyway.
I appreciate you guys.
I'm going to enjoy the rest of my Friday.
I still have a lot of shit to catch up on.
Don't worry.
And the last thing I'll say is, I keep saying this line.
The end of the world is the bull case.
I don't know if we're there yet or not, but it's like, when everybody thinks one way, it's time to bet the other way.
Nobody thought that the tariffs mattered.
Suddenly the tariffs mattered.
Everyone's like, oh, shit, it's the end of the new world order.
It's like bringing back WCW, NWO type ways of thinking about this stuff.
type of ways of thinking about this stuff.
Look, things will find a way.
Look, things will find a way,
you know, and you should
not be afraid of lower prices
because that's what you want to buy.
I don't know why people don't get
this. You should be rooting for
a market crash. You know why?
Because unless you need the money tomorrow,
it's like, I just interviewed Meb Faber
of Cambria, and he said it, it's like, yeah,
the sell-off is great, and then he said,
asterisk, if you're young.
Michael, you know, mentioning things about wrestling and WWF and NWN, all that stuff.
Did you know, right, that when the S&P peaked at 6147 was when John Cena turned heel?
I mean, I guess you can see him after all.
I guess that's sort of the way to say it.
That's, you know, one of the most watched segments.
Apparently, that got everybody to sell equities.
It's like, you lost the American hero, man.
Time to sell U.S. equities.
Man, Mike.
Fucking John Cena.
Yeah, I want to thank you for coming on, man.
And my statement, you know, about 401Ks underperforming is just due to the fact of the crazy inflation cycle that we had.
Sure, the S&P is up, what, 60%, 65%. Actually, not that much anymore. Excuse me. Wow. It actually
got crushed. But nonetheless, the gains that the S&P has made over the last couple of years has
barely offset the cost of inflation, things like housing rent utilities all that sort of stuff
so it is it is a bit of a different market regime unless like you know you've played secular bulls
whether it's in the crypto markets or i don't know like people bought mstr yeah um and shit like that
man but yeah i want to thank you uh for coming on mike. It was a great discussion. And, man, I think the last thing you can touch on this for a couple of moments is,
are you expecting some sort of reaction should the S&P retests its 2021 high?
What are you kind of thinking if we have a forehandle on SPX next week?
I mean, tell me what junk that's doing, and I'll tell you what's going to happen next.
I keep going back to this is
about a repricing of default risk.
Right?
And it's that divergence, which is the whole
thesis of the credit event, which again, I've never changed.
It's like if high yield
keeps cracking, and this was actually the first
week it started, which is actually what
I said, the scary thing is that
that's still early.
If high yield is just only now starting to crack,
yeah, you know what? This could be like one of those
25%, 30%, 35% declines.
Unequivocally could be.
And that would be the best thing
possible for small caps
because it's going to cause yields to drop.
It's going to then cause the zombie companies
to have a chance to survive refinancing
into lower rates, which, again, I keep going back to this circle of life meme.
You crash stocks to save bonds.
You save bonds, you save small caps.
So coming out of this, if you're going to say, what do you want to keep an eye on to buy into after this?
I don't think it's tech.
I don't think it's AI.
I don't think it's NVIDIA.
I think the thing you're going to want to buy after this, after this really just flushes out,
is going to be small caps.
I think there's a stupid move coming there
because it's just an enormous overreaction to default risk,
which gets resolved from the very nature of equities,
selling off, pushing money into government debt,
credit spreads winding, and then causing a reliquification.
So it's like, independent of what happens to the S&P 500 and levels,
the next big bull move really should be small caps.
But in order for that bull move to take place,
you need yields a lot lower.
To get yields a lot lower, you need to crash stocks.
All right, man.
So buy a hood and coin as well.
Yeah, well, not financial advice, my friend.
Not financial advice. I got to as well. Yeah, well, not financial advice, my friend. Not financial advice.
I got to say that.
Yeah.
I mean, like, I guess from, like, the average consumer, right,
like, if we look at indices for what they are,
anytime indices are down 20-plus percent,
usually over a four-year time horizon,
the gains are pretty substantial.
At least, like, that's what history has taught us.
Yeah, but just keep in mind the starting point of valuation is still very elevated.
You need some heavy losses for valuations to actually come back into line.
So we'll see.
I mean, people say valuations don't matter.
It's all about liquidity.
That sounds to me just like narrative following price.
So the market's undergoing a fast.
Fasting actually... An extended fast.
Yeah, it's healthy. It's autophagy, man.
The whole freaking stock market's going to go through autophagy.
Yeah.
I fast
at least like...
I fast at least like twice a week.
But it's more of like
I wake up and I don't
really eat anything until the sun goes down.
Stuff like that. So it's
like small 18-hour fasts.
14-hour fasts.
It's a cure to tariffs. So they said the tariffs
cause imports of
food prices to go up, which is not the
case, largely. But anyway, guys, I'm gonna
hop. I appreciate it. Everybody enjoy the rest of the weekend.
Take it easy. Thanks for coming
on, brother.
Matt, you wanted to say something?
Matt, I can't hear you if you're saying something, man.
Donnie, everybody hear Matt by any chance?
No, I can't.
Yeah, Matt, I think your connection is off.
As I said earlier, guys, spaces are acting up.
It says, like, unable to fetch space, still on my personal.
And, yeah, I guess, like, I don't know, man.
The world's in a weird place.
But, yeah, man, I'm just, like, I trained ridiculously hard yesterday, and I'm glad I'm back at, like, 90%. Did some log pressing, incline pressing, a lot of other cool shit, too, man.
But Donnie, bro, I think this is the first time that, you know, you've been on me with the show where Michael comes on he was pretty
active in 2023 calling for a melt-up and I remember sentiment if you remember
also like during that first half of 23 especially after the Silicon Valley bank
crisis or whatever happened with Silvergate and all that stuff you know
people were absolutely freaking the
out saying that growth is never coming back btc is gonna go to 10k that's it it's over
and the reverse ended up being true right but um donnie what are your thoughts man on the
conversation that that uh that was that that he was bringing up man man. If you have any talking points
that you want to bounce off of, brother.
I guess his main point was basically
that the stock market needs to go lower
in order for kind of this whole cycle to play out, right?
To force the Fed pivot and this easing
and this reset of the credit and all that.
Like, yeah, there's some truth to that.
In my view, you're already seeing yields and stuff trend lower.
So obviously, what's making them trend
is also being induced by the stock market going down and stuff.
So I don't know.
I don't know.
I guess just let the price action unfold
and see how it plays out.
I don't really have too many hard views on that.
I just have a pretty strong opinion on
BTC being a very good beneficiary of whatever that outcome is to essentially go to this
easing quote unquote cycle, right? That the Fed, you know, ultimately has to pivot to, I think.
So it's all just coming together to that.
If you really want to get specific about how much the SPX has to go down or up or recover or if the top's already in and it's going to trade sideways,
I don't think that matters for BTC and crypto.
I think we're going to get the blow off top.
Donnie, so what you're saying is don't try and get by
until you'll get dealt with and trapped.
And if you're curious, don't rule out that Farcoin might peck at you.
Right?
You get it?
Come on, dude.
Dude, Farcoin is up 30%.
That's actually fucking crazy.
Farcoin, 30%.
SPX, 6900, up over 20% while equities are cratering.
That's the funniest thing ever, dude.
That is hilarious.
Dude, can you imagine if equities just consolidate from here after next week at whatever the fuck happens.
Equities go to like 4,900 or something and then end the year at like
5700 and far coin is back at all-time highs that that would honestly be hilarious that would be
funny as hell and you know we're seeing crypto bros turn into macro gurus and that's what like
i kind of noticed after like 3ac blew up and i'm like yo
why the fuck are all these people that were making threads on uniswap and chain link now
caring about all these macro events when btc is trading in the teens and eth is at 800 fucking
dollars i remember being on a space i'm pretty sure I'm the one that hosted it, Matt.
And Naka.
Where ETH went to $800.
And then Airmask said
that he was going to fucking short ETH.
I remember that week.
I remember that week.
That was quite the space, man.
I was like, what are you talking about?
And unironically, dude, should, should ETH go to 1,200?
That's the fucking generational bottom for that thing, man.
Because I know what's going to happen if you see ETH at those levels.
Bro, like, the run to actual new highs would be insane.
And if growth stocks are going to catch a bid to be frank dude like alts are going to chad
and it's not going to be this like weird thing that you saw on solana and bnb where they barely
mark up from their notional usd price but continue donnie continue brother brother. No, sorry. I was just checking out the charts and stuff.
You mentioned fart coin and the fart coins are absolutely repping brother.
Some big buys coming in.
What were we just talking about?
I don't know, man.
I was just going on a,
on a rant.
I was going to ask,
did Donnie say that he was still expecting
a blow-off top in crypto?
Yep.
Are you fucking insane?
Have you seen what equities are doing?
Yeah, I'm seeing it,
and that's adding confluence in my book.
Yeah, but
to be fair,
Donnie's talking about fall.
He's talking about after the summer
yeah i think i think around the summer after the summer i mean like so there's there's some
possibility that like tomorrow morning trump walks out and says it was all nateful falls joke we're
not doing the tariffs and then like then equity's just kind of chad and everything goes up
If that doesn't happen
Then this is probably a trad fi
Bear market
And those are not quick
Remember 2022 it lasted a whole year
It could just be that 2025
Is just like a trad fi bear market
We bottom out around the 200
Not to
Not to interrupt Not to interrupt, Naka, but if we just look at the SPX, for example,
we went down about 25% in 2022, and that took 10 months.
SPX is down 20%, and it's only been six weeks.
And I would argue, especially if you account for markets maturing and drawdowns
and not being as large as previous bear markets that were actually time-wise a lot closer
to the bottom than not.
Even stocks like Apple.
Apple's down 23%.
Wait, why do you think that, why do you think TradFi bear markets will get shorter?
I mean, just take a look at 2022. Take a look at 2020, take a look at 2018.
You just don't undergo a series of multiple large crashes that extend in such a short period amount of time.
The regime has been since 2008 these quick multi-month downtrends.
multi-month downtrends or if you want to look more specifically at trump these quick multi-week
downtrends that often resolve in ripping off the band-aid and just yeah going up from there
this is where i might disagree and i might agree more with knock on this one so now we now we have
to consider like you know everyone keeps saying, you guys should have taken Trump seriously.
You guys should have taken Trump seriously.
Well, companies are also trying to answer that exact question.
You know, they can wait out, like, they can wait out a month or two months or a quarter or two quarters.
If Trump refuses to take off the tariffs from Cambodia, Thailand, Japan, Egypt, wherever, South Africa.
Isn't Cambodia like the third world country?
Yeah, but that doesn't matter.
If you're Nike and you make 75% of your product in Southeast Asia and those tariffs are not coming off no matter how hard you try to negotiate,
you're fucked. You've got to spend money and move that manufacturing somewhere else.
And that's where companies start completely missing their earnings. That's where companies start firing and laying off workers. That's where unemployment starts rising and you start getting some neutral
or negative jobs reports.
So that's the thing.
People keep tweeting that, oh, you should have taken Trump seriously, should have taken
Trump seriously.
Well, if Trump is serious, this S&P 500 and NASDAQ aren't going to bottom next week if he's serious.
Because think of this logically.
None of these companies have spent a single dollar on shoring any of their equipment,
any of their manufacturing, any of their labor, nothing.
They haven't spent any money.
Wait till Trump actually says, no, no fuckheads i'm not joking around
do it this is my last term i'm not i'm going out in a blaze of glory i'm not running for re-election
i don't give a shit about midterms wait for trump to drop that bomb and watch nasdaq and
s&p 500 take another leg lower. I'm not kidding.
People still are trying to call his bluff,
but what if he's not bluffing?
Yeah, I think the tariffs are going to stay.
It's just the rates of them are probably going to be negotiated.
be negotiated and if anything like these
And if anything, these tariffs would just bring jobs to America, wouldn't they?
tariffs they're not they're not gonna get negotiated
wouldn't they
wouldn't wouldn't the tariffs just bring back
jobs to america not
so much overseas
that's a 2000
that's like a long
time
five years
two to two to three years but like
exactly i'm not getting
I'm not going to get psyoped by like
The narrative going on
I'm not getting psyoped
It doesn't mean
I think we're bottoming this
We're bottoming this quarter dude
We're bottoming this quarter
If Trump
Blinks
If Trump starts
Walking back this rate or that rate And if Trump blinks, if Trump starts walking back this rate or that rate, and if he blinks and starts making, okay, concessions here and exemptions there, then yes, I agree with you, Wavi.
Yes.
But if he's not, but if he's not, but if he doesn't blink, if he's not bluffing, then you have to assume that Costco at 55 pe is way overpriced you have to assume that apple is
overpriced you have to assume that google meta uh tesla 2 uh nvidia they're all overpriced you do
um now again uh michael michael left the stage but i agree with with him that if we zoom out far enough, I expect hard assets like gold, like Bitcoin to outperform S&P 500 and NASDAQ for the next five to 10 years.
Easy. Easy in that.
Because all these companies, you've got to spend a portion of your capital, a portion of your profits.
You've got to spend it on reshoring, manufacturing and industry and
jobs and labor and all of that.
You've got to go spend money to get out of this or that whatever tariff.
Bitcoin doesn't have to do that.
Gold doesn't have to do that.
Hard assets don't have to do that.
Energy companies got a massive exemption.
Energy companies don't have to do that.
companies don't have to do that chevron exxon uh mobile etc like they they like again hard assets
Chevron, Exxon, mobile, et cetera.
probably going to outperform and a lot of people are way too quick to like okay i'm going to jump
into i'm going to jump back into small caps or or into the big tech next week what what
I'm just kind of just like saying from the ones and boy just just like this is this is Bitcoin at 100k if we if we're talking about Trump and like the
downside the the time to be cautious for downside was near 6 000 not at 5 000 man um bobby it's like dude it's no this is like
bitcoin at 100 000 and everyone was like oh fuck here comes 150 000 and then like a few weeks after
bitcoin hits 100k the only thing that was rallying was ai tokens where me and donnie were hosting
spaces and all we were talking about was ai and farcoin it's kind of like the same thing right now but inverted like trump tariff day is what is btc breaking out of a hundred thousand on
december 4th of last year i give it like six weeks four weeks around there for all this stuff to play
out and people are gonna miss the lows they're gonna miss miss the lows on what i don't think
you're listening to half of my argument.
I'm telling you that, I'm agreeing with Donnie.
I'm telling you that Bitcoin, just like gold, look at that massive blow off top that gold's literally going through right now.
Gold doesn't give a fuck about tariffs.
Why? Because, okay, if I can't trust that all these companies are going to keep beating earnings, if I can't trust that two-year and 10-year treasury with the U.S. is a safe store of asset for my international company or country, if I can't trust everything, if this is the real way that things are moving forward for the next two to four years plus, well, they're not going to go slam their next billion dollar slug into Walmart or Costco or any of the Mag7.
They're not going to bother with that.
They're going to go buy gold.
They're going to go buy Bitcoin because they don't – Bitcoin doesn't have to worry about tariff wars.
They don't bitcoin doesn't have to worry about tariff wars they don't like you're making
you're making money and you don't need to worry about um gold too like look the central governments
and boomers they're but they have been and they will keep buying up gold new money and millennials
they're going to be looking at Bitcoin. It's literally that simple.
Wouldn't millennials look more to shitcoins and mocap stocks?
That's what I've been noticing over the last few years.
No, they don't buy.
No one buys massive red candles, though. Maybe the super savvy smart money alpha.
But no one buys super red candles
and i was referring to like like a bottom i'm not talking about costco or walmart or like i guess you
can call them like industrial stocks if you want to call it that right like things within the dow
jones massive i'm talking like low cap low cap stocks
right like a hood or a coin which man you remember man you remember the sentiment in late 22 early
23 we were getting clowned on talking about hood and coin and all that stuff and you had it's always
the btc maxi they like to larp about macro yeah but the coinbase drunk bonds the coinbase drunk bonds blah blah blah yeah but i see i mean
i i see bitcoin is outperforming coin like don't you i see bitcoin outperforming hood wouldn't you
it depends on the time horizon right like over a time horizon five year uh i i don't i don't know didn't didn't um hood go up like 10x off the lows
btc went up like yeah it went right it went some shit went from like uh uh 10 to 60 but
then it came all the way back down to 30 60 yeah but it came no i'm talking i'm talking from bottom
to top that's what I'm talking about.
Yeah, bottom to top.
But you had to sell.
Yeah, that's what I'm referring to.
It's sort of like looking at something like a Cardano and a BTC.
Of course, if you bought fucking ADA at a penny in 2020,
you'd still be up a ton more versus if you bought btc at at
3k right when times when times are good when there's time when times are good you've got money
and cash flow to sprinkle everywhere and everyone you know uh rising tide lifts all boats but when
times are uncertain or chaotic or everyone's refreshing CNBC
to figure out if XYZ's country's tariff is set in stone or not, people consolidate to the tried
and true. People consolidate to what they know. They start reducing their portfolio, not expanding
it. So people retreat back to what they know.
Maybe that's bonds.
Maybe that's gold.
Maybe that's Bitcoin.
But they don't go farther out the risk curve the shittier or more chaotic things get.
They just don't.
Oh, shit. Come back to the Wi-Fi, shit.
Come back to the Wi-Fi, Bobby.
You're breaking up. So, like, I'm just thinking...
... ... ... I think we did. Um,
in the seats.
And,
right.
That, that,
that,
that,
that,
that,
that,
that,
Johnny,
is that me?
I can't hear Robbie.
Robbie,
I think,
I think you're lagging.
Robbie.
Yeah. I think you're lagging. I think you're lagging. You went full robot.
Yeah, man. You're in the matrix.
He bought the dip with his microphone.
Wabi, you're still lagging
But listen I
what's that yeah i mean i think like
What's that
Yeah, I mean I
i think i think i think maybe gets it but i mean my my point is just like
if you look at trad fi right now it's like maximum downside momentum
it's probably not the greatest place to buy trad fi um because if there is a lasting effect if you look back at 2008 maximum downside momentum
in september 08 that was not the bottom um it had like a whole you know what like six six to
yeah about six months of consolidating around the lows before it recovered from that.
So max,
max downside momentum is not a particularly safe place to be a buyer.
And if you look at the QQQ,
you know,
max downside momentum in like 2001 was again, not a good place to be a buyer.
So I don't know.
I mean,
like,
and especially if you're wanting to buy crypto based upon what's happening in trad fi i think this is an absolutely terrible place to
buy and i'm actually considering for the first time actually bothering to open a short because
i just think crypto is is it's just lagging it's just like it hasn't fallen yet and probably the
reason it hasn't fallen is because sale is probably still buying and sailor will keep buying until his money stream
runs out and i don't know what's going to cause that but i suspect it's not going to take much
longer i think people will start pulling money out uh and sailor will run out of ammo and then the
whole cryptoverse will just crash because i mean, I mean, like, Bitcoin without Sailor should be, you know, 50K now.
Well, I mean, I don't know about that,
but I do agree with you that when Bitcoin lost, what was that?
When we spiked up to 88 or 87k i opened some puts as well because uh
