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Market Talk- INSANE CRASH!! Is the bottom in!? Stocks make new lows!?
Recorded: March 28, 2025 Duration: 1:10:00Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored the potential for a bullish trend in the market, highlighting key indicators such as the DXY's decline and the anticipation of a rally in BTC. With insights into on-chain activity and the broader economic landscape, the conversation emphasized a positive outlook for crypto growth amidst ongoing volatility.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. you No commitments, all I think and all You wouldn't get this wrong with any other guy
I just wanna tell you how I'm feeling
Gotta make you understand
Never gonna kick you up
Never gonna let you down
Never gonna run around and please hurt you
Never gonna make you cry i'm gonna
oh I'm just trying to say this, I've revolved for what's been going on
We know the game and we're gonna play it
And if you ask me how I feel it
Don't tell me I'm too blind to see
Never gonna kick you up, never gonna let you down
Never gonna run around and gonna let you down And I'm gonna roll around And he's like you
And I'm gonna make you cry
And I'm gonna say goodbye
And I'm gonna say goodbye
And let you
And I'm gonna give you up
And I'm gonna let you down
And I'm gonna roll around
And he's like you
And I'm gonna make you cry And I'm gonna say goodbye And I'm gonna say goodbye oh
I'm gonna give, I'm gonna give, it is up!
I'm gonna give, I'm gonna give, it is up!
We've known each other for so long
Your heart's been aching but you're too shy
I'm still scared, I'm still scared
We both know what's been going on
We know the game and we're gonna play
i just wanna tell you how i feel
hey gotta make you understand
never gonna give you up
never gonna let you down
never gonna run around
and he's gonna chew
never gonna let you cry
i'm gonna say goodbye i'm gonna tell you why all right
what's up guys i do not mean to troll with that song i know that song is uh known as a rickroll
or whatever it's called but i just kind of want to lighten up the mood today.
Man, the price action on the equity markets
was absolutely brutal today.
I actually haven't really been paying attention
to equities over the last couple of days.
And boy, it's really insane
how the Qs retested the year-to-date low.
S&P not that far off,
but CryptoHonesty looks like it could just set a higher low.
But we'll see what this weekend brings.
A lot of vaults across the board after bouncing quite nicely, one of them being 4coin, are
pulling back.
In all honesty, I simply just think this is an environment where it's just still healing
from all the madness that happened earlier this year with Trump and Melania coin.
We'll see what the tariff wars bring.
I think Trump has this World Liberation Day on the 2nd.
And I think many people are just de-risking ahead of that event at this point.
I think when you have something like that that's
just so in front of your face, I do think the opposite could actually happen. And whatever
damage is going to be done is probably going to happen this week. And we probably, at the very
least, have a rally of breadth throughout these markets. And truth be told, usually during downturns in a Trump administration, they usually last
a lot faster.
They usually happen a lot quicker than expected.
We saw in 2018, stocks still continue to rally up until August of 2018, while the crypto
market kind of decoupled from it.
And the downtrend in stocks really only lasted about
four months. And I think a lot of the damage in the stock market is going to be done with
in the same amount of time. But nonetheless, we take it day by day. We take it week by week,
month by month. It's all speculation in the end, right? Nobody really knows what's going to happen.
All we can do is, number one,
adjust our risk and try to keep all our chips on the table to play the long game, right? We're here
for a long time, not, you know, a casino mode where we try to cash in our chips as quickly as
possible, right? It's definitely not an environment that we saw in Q4 of last year or in Q1 as well,
right, of last year.
This market, for the most part of the last couple of months, has been a trader's market.
A lot of the damage on some of these on-chain alts were bottomed out in late February,
mid-February, like a FAR coin.
And the broader market, like majors and stuff, bottomed out on the 10th, right?
And we have seen cases where the stock market actually makes new lows.
Whether it's a crypto market, it kind of just relaxes for a bit.
And we saw that with the NASDAQ after FTX imploded.
Some tech stocks that comprise within the NASDAQ ETF, like Meta and Tesla and other things like that,
they actually continued on to make new lows in December.
And as a matter of fact, crypto didn't even bottom out after FTX or during FTX.
It actually bottomed out three weeks later during Thanksgiving week and not by much.
I think it was only by like 3% to 4%.
So there is a case that crypto is actually in the last phases of its bottoming out process.
So perhaps we do take one more stab at the lows, maybe at 73K, and we rally from there.
But as we've seen with Trump, I really just think Trump has taken this market for a string here.
And this tariff situation should be out of the way by next week and
you know it's uh quite crazy this this uh this market over the last two months it feels like
years have um have been passing by hasn't it donnie and welcome donnie and welcome uh
welcome captain it's gonna be uh quite a small show today i'm not really gonna
run it for two hours as i usually do or an hour and a half.
I want to keep this show as concise as possible.
I know much of our audience is probably not going to be active.
Usually on Fridays, it's a smaller audience, whether it's YouTube or whether it's Spaces.
And so for the Friday show, I usually just like to have somewhat of a weekly wrap-up,
but there is quite a few things to discuss, right?
I think an interesting thing to talk about
would also be the VIX, right?
The VIX is something that's pretty interesting.
Like, stocks are near their lows uh specifically like the the uh the qqq is back at its low but uh the vix is down like 25
30 percent from from its march highs so i think like perhaps that perhaps there is a lot of people trying to short at these
lows. Maybe they maybe they get into profit for a little bit and then they end up getting squeezed
out eventually. But I don't know, it just feels like this bearish momentum on tariffs isn't really
as strong as it was back in February when I was really pounding the table for some downside.
But now it's kind of like, you know, take a look at crypto and there's really not much crazy froth going on.
Maybe one more wipeout.
But the fact of the matter is you don't really have fun having a lot of tokens bonding anymore.
I think the bonding curve is now set at like 50k whether
as before it used to be 80 000 and there are hardly any pump fun tokens that now get above
one mil whether as before a couple of months back you would have these daily runners that would run
to like 50 mil 100 million you're just not seeing that anymore right you're seeing the you're seeing
a lot of the things on chain just
having smaller ceilings and smaller ceilings and smaller ceilings it's going to get to a point
where it's like you know it's going to be a return back to fundamentals i think so and we've seen
that right in 2023 when people were gambling heavily on rollbit in the summertime and then
they started betting on hamster racing.
The market cleansed itself. And then Solana led that rally. In 2024, you guys remember in Q3,
there were a lot of people doing these obscene live streams on PumpFun that were really dark
that I really don't want to touch upon it. And then what happened after that, you had Sui lead
the market. And now you had celebrity grifters, politicians, countries launching tokens.
And now the market is healing itself.
Even if it's just a counter trend rally, I still think there's going to be an environment
where bulls are going to be able to take advantage of,
whether it's to ride new positions or whether it's to exit existing bags.
or whether it's to existing bags,
I just don't really think it's going to be as brutal as a 2022 or as a 2018.
Even if crypto does end up continuing on to make lower lows,
I just don't think it's going to be as brutal.
I think it's just going to be more so chop as we endured last year
from March all the way until August. And eventually we had
our breakout in October, right? So we actually ranged for about seven months. And I mean,
if we overlay that same timeframe, I think most of the damage is practically done by September.
That to me is max pain scenario. It would actually fall in line with
QT actually coming to an end. The furthest I could see them extending it out, but I know
there are some betting markets on Polymarket where Fed could be projected to end QT either
in May or in June. But nonetheless, welcome back, guys. Welcome, welcome to another stream of Market Talk.
I'm your host, Wabi. I've got Donnie and Noah joining me on today's stream.
A good captain. I haven't spoken to him in a couple of months.
So guys, thank you all for tuning in.
Whether you're tuning in live right now or you're listening to the recording, welcome, welcome.
Good morning, good afternoon, wherever you are. Good evening.
I know for Donnie, it's already the weekend. It's kind of crazy. The time difference is really, really crazy. But thanks for coming through, man. And we're going to go ahead and get started. Spaces are recorded as always before we officially get started, guys. Before we go on and cook for you guys for the weekly wrap up on this beautiful Friday,
if you guys can go ahead and show some love to the space.
And the best way that you guys can show some love is by doing a few things.
Only takes a few seconds, takes very minimal effort.
The best way to show love is by clicking the spaces tab.
And once you do that, guys, once you do that,
you'll see a little link right above our avatars,
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You guys can go ahead and click the like button,
smash up the like button,
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It helps bring more eyes and ears to the the show helps bring more awareness of the brand and also helps please our tech overlord so
guys welcome welcome we're gonna go ahead and get started donnie brother how are you doing man
thanks for pulling through what are kind of your thoughts on uh on today's price action do you think it's
somewhat similar to q3 of 2023 where we saw a lot of the crypto market bottom um in august and then
we had that double double uh bottom retest in september while the stock market continued to
drag us out for almost two months but most of the damage of the crypto market was already done in august and
september and we weren't really affected by the equity markets and i think you had mentioned this
where uh gold was also doing well at that time was as a crypto market was kind of stagnant and
we also saw that uh during last year right gold had rallied from march all the way through the
summertime we were out wondering what's going on with crypto why isn't crypto reacting is the gold
really the uh the safe haven asset and of course we saw later on during both time periods that
that wasn't the case and crypto showed us the best feature as we all know it which is a certain piece of technology right called
ngu ngu tech number go up technology so donnie the mic's all yours brother we're looking forward
to this conversation with you gentlemen hey bro so yeah we've gotten a bit of a dip uh in the
market it's mainly driven by equities at the moment because we're trading very correlated to them and a very key pivot point for risk markets. But we have been keeping our eye on this
79k potential dip on BTC. There was a lot of liquidity buildup on this uptrend that we've
had locally to where if you do start to lose market structure back to
bearish, you could potentially come back for that 79k before you go higher in April, right? And,
you know, what's going to cause that dip to 79k? Obviously, equity is going down,
but why are they going down? People are kind of de-risking going into the tariffs on April 2nd.
So as long as the markets don't nuke too heavily
going into that date, right?
BTC can remain above 79K
and just scoop up that liquidity,
then not too worried at all, right?
At the worst case for BTC,
and I'll dig onto this a little bit later,
is it could go to 73,600,
the demand zone below somewhere around there
as like a three tap model of accumulation around these lows to potentially then bottom there and
then um you know in that first week of april we know we have the tariffs but we also have
economic data right that's what we're looking at so that we can kind of forecast what the feds
are going to do at this next meeting in may so So we've got about five weeks, all of April and the first week of May before that FOMC.
And we need our leading indicator charts, which I posted in the nest for you guys to
look at, to continuously play out, continue the trends that we need to get the Fed to
pivot, essentially essentially to more cuts
and ending QT. So though the markets were down today, so were the most important charts of DXY
and the US 10-year. So if you jump on that DXY chart right now, you've got a bunch of little
points of supply above, which we're just eyeing out uh as areas to where
you can uh reject and go lower and we're kind of rejecting already without even coming to one of
those zones yet you still haven't fully broken like local structure that first raid line to um
flip back to bearish so it's still somewhat in an uptrend but it's good to see this right because not only does
you know the dxy go down but m2 also goes up in correlation to this which is uh on one of the
charts um in the same post but just focus on this dxy one for now so we're still not in april right
if this chart starts to lose you know that 103.2 level that that other red line I've marked headed for range low.
If you lose that,
let's say in the first couple of weeks of April,
you've then got three weeks
until the FOMC for this chart
to continue to go down to the range low.
That's going to add more confluence to us
that not only is the liquidity cycle
continuing to expand
because you will see Global M2 continue the uptrend, more confluence to us that not only is the liquidity cycle continuing to expand because
you will see Global M2 continue the uptrend, but it's also going to indicate that potentially
the Fed is going to also do the things that we want them to do, aka NQT, and potentially
slide in a rate cut or give some forward guidance on cuts and stuff like that.
But more so to do with that is the US tenure,
if you guys go on the other chart.
We've marked out this local distribution that we had
in this local range there that I've marked.
You can see this chart from the top has been in a downtrend.
And it's leaving this massive resistance, supply zone,
whatever you want to call it, above.
And you've bounced from that low at
4.1%. And you've been forming this range, deviating that range. And now you've just had the second
deviation to come into that supply zone. And you've actually lost local market structure to bearish
that first little red line there. And now you've taken out that gap below us. So you're already
making significant progress on this.
And how you want to look at this chart is kind of it trades
between whatever the federal funds rates are.
So right now that the interest rates are around 4.25% to 4.5%.
So if this chart starts to lose 4%, for example,
it's essentially the bond market pricing in a rate cut from the Fed.
So we want this chart to lose that 4.1%, ultimately 4%, or be closer around 4% before May 7th,
so that we have a high likelihood of getting a rate cut, for example.
This chart is going to continue playing out along with DXY as we get that incremental data coming out of April, which is what we've been waiting for, for this buildup in price on BTC as, you know, the market starts to slowly front run like a telegraphed move from the Fed, right?
That's what this whole thing is.
So, yeah, we need that to unfold and we've been waiting for it.
And these charts are headed in the right direction.
Now, if you go on the last chart that I posted there, it's just BTC next to Global M2. This chart's pretty important
as a piece of confluence, right? This is like, let's say
the cherry on top to both of those other two charts, right? Because we need those two
charts to continue so that we can have the confidence that, okay,
though M2 has bounced
here, as you guys can see from the low, we need continuation on that.
Therefore, we need DXY to continue so Global M2 can expand, right?
It's literally inversely correlated at the moment so that we can confirm that this pump
that we're about to get in April, because it's lining up with April.
we're about to get in April because it's lining up with April.
I've marked there on the charts kind of like the days on Global M2 and BTC
where similarly on the candlestick patterns, the charts have played out, right?
You've had like a gradual uptrend on M2 leading up to that first peak
and then a gradual sort of downtrend on Global Intu as well, you can kind of
see a similar correlation on BTC there, right? So you're kind of measuring the days between these
points to get a rough estimate of, okay, where could we potentially see the next shift in trend?
And it's pointing around April, right? You can't be like directly precise with it, but it's pointing
around April. And we know that we have economic data in April.
We know that there is a FOMC meeting in May. So we're looking for a potential buildup there.
And GlobalM2 is showing us that there is some sort of bounce coming around that date, right?
So added confluence. But we need this chart to continue going higher, put in higher highs and
higher lows and continue the uptrend so that this rally doesn't end up being just a retest of the all-time high or potentially not
even get to the all-time high and just roll over. If Global M2 starts to roll over and comes back
down to the range low and DXY starts to rally back up to, let's say, near 110 again,
rally back up to, let's say, near 110 again,
then you know that this is kind of an exit rally
and you don't want that.
So this is why it's really important this month of April
to incrementally give us the confidence that,
okay, this rally is actually continuation for BTC
to go into price discovery
and we actually have a bullish sustained uptrend for months.
So again, we still don't have confirmations
of that, but I'm pretty confident there's going to be a bounce after April 2nd, potentially at the
end of that week, something like that, maybe after the employment situation on the 4th of April.
And then we'll see if this uptrend can get built as Global M2 is kind of telegraphing for us.
So the BTC chart is showing accumulation if you
can see there where i've marked and read like an explosive uh expansion to the downside you've had
one wick um to create like a range low and then you bounced up on that uh crazy trump news saying
he's gonna have like a uh what was the news it was like a basket of old coins in the strategic
reserve or something.
And then you came right back down,
you deviated that low.
You've had like this three tap model formation
almost playing out, right?
We're waiting for the third tap now.
And if you can see on Global M2,
you've had that initial range low there
where that dotted line is
where I've marked compression
and you bounced up
and then you came for another low
and you had a little bounce up and you came for another low. So it's giving confluence for like
a three tap low there as well. It's not going to look identical to the global M2 chart, but it's
indicating that there's some compression, there's some testing of lows there before you expand in
April. So we've been waiting for this for a long time. And I wouldn't be too bearish right here, right?
Because we are waiting for at least a bounce.
So things will get better before they continue to get better,
or we find out that they're actually going to get worse, right?
So at least you'll be able to catch some sort of rally
before you can confirm exiting if need be.
But for right now, our thesis still remains bullish around May and June. And potentially,
we can break into new all time highs for BTC sometime around those months, right? We know that,
you know, real time inflation has been showing up lower. And that's going to help, you know,
the Fed kind of pivot in the way that we want them to pivot, right? As they're lagging indicators,
their inflation reports that they use lag by about like a month or two,
potentially in this month of April
as those reports start to come out,
maybe it's time for their data to show
like what real-time inflation was showing us
this last month or so.
That's going to help a lot
as well. So we need we need all of this to unfold. But we have confidence that, you know, there's a
good likelihood of it playing out this way. So we'll just see. And you know, you have to give
some deviation to the dates. If not this FOMC, then we need you know, more data in May. And the
market will do its job front running that data before the next FOMC in June.
And we know they've strategically placed three FOMCs back to back May, June, and July. So something
has to happen around there, right? And that's what we're waiting for. So the local price action can
be a bit brutal, but I think better days are coming and specifically in April.
and specifically in April.
Donnie, I hope at this point we start to rally, bro.
Like a rally above our yearly open because...
Is Donnie still talking, by the way?
Or...
Oh, that was it?
Okay, okay.
Yeah, because like when the death of volatility occurs after a
big spike down it's like it's a no trade zone because anything can happen in either direction
there's no trend um the eth price action is honestly like it's quite disheartening to be
frank it is so disheartening it's like you know when we talk about voting
things and all that stuff voting things in and voting things out ETH is it looks like it's being
voted out right now like BTC can dupe to 80k be back at 82 and ETH can be at like 1400 1500 $1,400, $1,500. It's really difficult for me to talk about that asset in any way.
But man, I think even with myself getting frustrated,
should I just shut my eyes and come back in six months, Donnie?
No, six months is too long.
I would say... A week? a week six six weeks okay okay okay
all right i think what you can expect as like a base case based to bullish would be a build up in
price on btc to 99.5k although let me just share this chart i don't know if i've already shared it
this bitcoin chart here this was shared like four or five
days ago or something. I think we already spoke
about it. But jump on that chart, right?
Have a look at it. We've been waiting for the
79k liquidity sweep, right?
Build up in April. Build up
to that key upside level. I think that's what you're
talking about, the yearly open. Is it
around there?
99k? The yearly open is sitting
at 94.8 which is basically right near the it's
pretty much the march highs right now those are the march highs and we got rejected off of that
but i think more importantly than than anything before we talk about testing the yearly open
we would have to get across the Monday range high, which is
at 88K and change, which I think that's where our weekly 20 EMA and weekly 21 SMA, right?
It's Ben Cowan's bull market support band.
It's those levels right there.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I don't know about EMAs and stuff,
but on this
chart, I've
tried to make it as simple as
possible. That 99.5k level
is where all of the large
liquidity remains for a squeeze.
I'm expecting
some sort of buildup in April. We have the
confluence of M2 bouncing from the low.
We have the confluence of DXY and US tenure
potentially confirming continuation of this downtrend.
We have added confluence for those two charts to play out
because we know inflation reports are likely to be cold
coming into April and all the other economic data
is likely to stay solid or slightly weak
for the Fed to raise their
eyebrows and be like, okay, there's no reason for us not to act here. So prices will incrementally
build up over April to that 99.5k level. It's still going to be shaky because you're going to
be waiting for these uncertain sort of points with economic data. So it's going to be a slow buildup
as they continue to confirm,
you know, let's say positive, positive, positive, positive, you're going to get up to some sort of
key level on BTC before the FOMC. They confirm the cut and the end of QT and you squeeze all of
that upside liquidity remaining from 99.5 to the all-time high. And, you know, if the trends continue of DXY and M2 and the US 10 year over all of April and the start
of May, then you just know that that rally is actually going to continue going higher. It's
not just going to retest the high and roll over, especially if the Fed pivots. So that's kind of
how I think it's going to play out.ah brother are there any thoughts that uh that you
would want to give man i don't want to leave you uh out out there in the background man i know uh
you're running on time and we didn't get uh we didn't get to chat during uh the last spaces
because you were having some family time yeah that was very refreshing donnie so i
agree with literally everything you said now so what's the difference everyone uh is unique
everyone looks at different things so i literally look at the same things as you except i have as
a made i have a certain amount of years in my life. I'm older, and I focus on how do I maintain serenity.
Very important thing for me.
So what I do is I take all of those things that you expect,
and I simplify the equation to look at basically one, two, three things.
I look at the DXY.
I look at the move indicator, which is an expression of volatility in U.S. treasuries,
10-year plus
duration when i look at gold gold is the signal through the noise it keeps going up 3084 is
absolutely insane move indicator below 100 gives us a bit of a forward-looking indicator
on the dxy but the move indicator has been pretty elevated and i would love to see it fall below the magic 80 mark
hasn't been below 80 in quite some years which would imply um appreciation in duration 10 year
plus treasury instruments which basically means yields down treasury instruments increase in price
that increases collateral throughout the entire global system. Move comes down, which is basically volatility.
And I like to give the example of the global Aave health factor.
So as there's less volatility, you're less afraid, let's say,
your WBTC on Aave is going to fall below health factor of one
and get close to redemption.
So basically that whole analogy is the way the world treats all collateral.
If you have less volatility in collateral, you're more inclined to leverage it.
You're more inclined to borrow capital against it.
And that's the foundation for the global dollar system.
So as move indicator rolls over, it gives the capacity for the international dollar supply creation system to expand, which is basically when you reference Global M2.
And as the global dollar supply expands, that decreases the tendency for foreign nations to use foreign currency to purchase dollars.
They print dollars instead of purchase dollars. They print dollars instead of purchase dollars.
And this is why the move indicator is forward-looking
on a DXY downward trajectory from a bid-ask perspective.
Less bid, DXY go down.
DXY go down, we could look back for a little bit of
very obvious inverse correlation with risk asset prices.
But that is just anecd anecdotal in my opinion the
relationship between U.S. equities and crypto markets currently U.S. equities are the largest
equity market in the world but generally speaking I wouldn't be surprised to see a bullish correlation
between any nation's equity market and the crypto market it's more a correlation with exuberance
so if you had an exuberant equities's more a correlation with exuberance.
So if you had an exuberant equities market in Germany or an exuberant equities market in Britain, you could say, all right, there's a great correlation with equities market going,
you know, vertical to the upside, you know, correlation with exuberance.
Generally speaking, the DXY is my preferred daily inspection to tell me what's going on on the crypto markets.
So a lot of folks love to look at crypto charts.
I don't.
Meanwhile, this is my primary investment landscape, crypto markets.
But dollar down, crypto up because of the way the global dollar is created and is managed.
is created and is managed so right now we finally just push below the 100 sma in the weekly for the
first time since i don't have any charts in the nest but i got them up july 2024 now there's one
date that comes earlier and it's the only date that stands out to me
everything before july of 2024 which was other bullish periods in 2024 200 sma the 100 sma in
the weekly was on an incline up so basically in july 2024 most closely resembles june of 2020. The first, the topping of significant moving average in a relatively decent
time frame. I mean, obviously, we go out to the monthly and we see a topping on a moving average
that's stronger than the topping of a moving average on a weekly. But weekly is quite interesting
because of other technical indicators that I look at. Suffice it to say, June of 24 was comparable to about summer, July of 2020.
And as folks are well aware, that was a very interesting time in markets.
So that was clearly a rejection in June of 2024.
We came right, we bounced right off the weekly 200 SMA.
It was just a remarkable chart so we got invalidated
until now this is the second time since june of 2020 july of 2020 that we are pushing below the
100 sma in the weekly and we have a rolling top in the 100 SMA heading towards the 200 SMA.
So this is basically our second time we get to see what the hell plays out
with DXY and weekly 200.
My two cents is I'm looking for a push below weekly 200 SMA.
I'm looking for a breakdown, a retest, and a lower low, which I typically define as the
trifecta of bearish confluence. Got to have that retest. So you see a breakdown maybe to
101.8, a pump back up to 102.5, and then a lower low, you know, 101.5. And you got some nice
confluence, especially if that plays out over like a two three four week period what's interesting is the retest into the 100
SMA right now is is the fourth week and we are about to close that fourth week
in one hour 34 minutes which and this is basically the retest we went above the
100 SMA and the weekly and now we need to see the whole low which is probably
about 103 or lower and then we're to see the whole low which is probably about 103
or lower and then we're pretty much smack right into the 200 sma on the weekly
so we are right on the line of probably in my opinion my technical analysis opinion the most
exciting time technical standpoint that i've seen in these crypto markets since summer of 2020
now clearly that's not a very common or shared opinion necessarily but as i understand the
global dollar supply and the inverse correlation between it going or the correlation between the
global dollar supply going up where the value of the dollar going down and the general monetization
of the crypto markets um this all this technical data screams to me yeah um this is very exciting
it's been a long time in the making to get to where we are here's one final note
note everything between 2022 and now the dollar has absolutely ripped face and has been basically
a horizontal uh compression consolidation i literally had a blow off top in the dollar
dxy from september 2022 and it's been trending horizontal ever since and donna you mentioned
some actual key
levels that are interesting because i had to find them pretty much the same there's a key level of
10735 which goes back to the 1970s and i think you said like 103 and change so my level that i mark
is 103 as a critical level anything below that and it's fascinating because you really have a congestion
of the 100 sma in the weekly that 103 8 level that i mark and basically the 200 sma just below
this is the first time in years that we're in a position to punch the 200 sma to the downside now the correlation with the bull market in 2020 and 2021 in 2016 and 2017 was a
strong push towards the 200 sma and a breach through it on weekly we have yet to see that since
summer of 2020.
Man, Noah, so what are your expectations for the rest of the year?
Like, do you project the Fed cutting rates by two more times, three more times?
What are your thoughts on also like this poor performance from ETH?
It's really nasty, man.
It is truly disgusting to witness.
Despite all the things set up for this thing, you've got an ETF.
Like, what more can you ask for?
You have an ETF that's been live for eight months now, and it's essentially down 45 percent since since its inception
well for myself my portfolio construction i treat stable coins and bitcoin as cash
now that's obviously a long story i don't hold ethereum i don't invest in ethereum technically
i don't invest in bitcoin either i use it as cash
it's a collateralizable instrument but it's also spendable as a type of cash long story short not
too interested in the ethereum price uh i pretty much bifurcate the entire crypto market between
dollars stable coins bitcoin and fintech business which basically is inspectable in terms of value
investment um you know standards balance sheet revenue well none of these protocols have debt
but how much cash flow are they producing actual like uh not tvl but like total deposits like obvious
three plus billion dollars in deposits it's an absolutely as this is
at the 14th largest bank in the united states absolutely insane from a value investment
perspective so you mentioned uh rate cuts from the fed so this plays very much into the way i
understand the global dollar so most and more importantly than than fed rate cuts is 10 year plus
duration interest rates which have come down and i'd love to see duration come down more
because that means collateral prices are increasing so what you need to see is the 10
year go below four trend towards 3.5 and you need to see the move indicator crash below 80.
so that's basically a global
Abbey help factor going through the roof and that's going to lead right into what Aditya was talking about with Global M2
Also going through the roof. Now
That is that is much more important than Fed rate cuts because the Fed only controls interbank lending
Whereas the world uses duration 10-year plus treasury instruments
to print dollars um interbank lending plays into the capacity for the domestic us money creation
process at the banking level like credit and mortgages and stuff like that i'll be at the
10 years the baseline for mortgages so it does kind of blend across the
entire yield curve um generally speaking as long as interest rates come down across the board
obviously fed cuts but also 10 year plus you're going to see a decrease in the dxy
and as the move rolls over you'll see an increase in global m2 and you'll start to see the crypto market monetized just as it did
in june of 2020 and earlier when it crossed the 200 sma in the weekly in 2017 towards the second donnie feel free to give uh some of your thoughts man um i think uh didn't we have some pce data
come out today i wonder all that stuff came in it's uh it's april's data that's more important
yeah yeah and of course we have that that liberation day Day on the second.
So, boy, oh boy.
So, yeah, we have to survive the next few years. It's more like the next few years.
I think the Trump trade is more extended than we think, to be frank.
It's not going to all be done in a year.
It's going to take multiple years, to be frank.
When this thing kicks off, it's going to take multiple years to be frank well when this thing kicks off it's
going to be quite insane but and it would be kind of kind of sick if like btc actually repeats the
same thing that i did in 2021 and makes a makes a slight higher high and most alts just don't go
into price discovery that would be something else and it's a new batch of alts
and one of them being far coin right like shib uh actually made an all-time high where there is doge
didn't so maybe that's the case that's the case with far coin against like some of the some of
the other uh high cap memes i know which one you're talking about, Wavi. Yeah, I'm not going to entertain anything, man, because it's a war zone.
It's a war zone out there.
But the Doge stimulus checks are something that I think for the second half of the year,
or a key one of next year, that could honestly set this market on a face ripper
and truly break the four-year cycle i i think like
when we just think oh this happened four years ago or whatever it's sort of a disrespect to the
market at times and you're taking yourself off as a trader and more so kind of like i don't know man
it's it's i think it's like a Pavlovian effect, right?
Because the flows are just mechanically different.
And we could actually make all-time highs during a midterm year.
And crypto has never really done that, like ever.
And I truly think Trump wants to make his midterm year the best of the best ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, man.
And I think for the equity markets, it's very rare that you have three back to back years of gains of 20 plus percent.
20 plus percent. It's really rare, extremely rare.
It's really rare, extremely rare.
I mean, we just have to take a look at like 2020 and 2021 and then 2016 and 2017, right?
2018 was a down year.
So that's something to take note of, right? Like, it's more so, all right, could BTC actually go into price discovery?
I'm saying price discovery more than anything with equities not going into price discovery.
That is actually rare.
I know in 2023, we made a new year-to-date high, but I'm more so talking about price discovery because, man, that area between like, and you've talked about it too, Donnie, like those supply blocks from 102k to 104k are really, really, really heavy.
And Sailor did a ton of buying from like 92k uh and beyond that
maybe i hit on that for a second because that is talking about like the correlation between
equities markets and crypto so my expectation is the potential next bullish period in crypto
to have no correlation between crypto and u.s equities i see a great
reason for decoupling because it was never really coupled it was just a sentiment driven
um because obviously if the dollar the dxy continues to decrease in value foreign currency
continues to appreciate there's much more foreign currency on the planet than dollars
so that increase in purchasing power
that every foreign nation has is going to be chasing what is outperforming the most so if
u.s equities rolls over things are selling liquidating to dollars and it's going to move
from underperformance to outperformance which is probably consistent with the emerging market trade, which means capital will fall into foreign equities markets.
But coinciding with an increase in value of foreign currency pricing,
it's going to flow into the best trade possible,
which could easily be crypto markets.
Yeah, it just depends.
We're kind of still at that crossroads of like,
is this just a sort of mean reversion out of stocks
into some of these other equity markets?
Or is this like, are we going to see continuation of this trend?
And yeah, lead to that decoupling like you're talking about.
I think for me, that's yet to be determined.
I'm not sure.
I would love to see how US equities respond
if the Fed ends QT and they start cutting rates
and that global liquidity does start to increase.
If that trend continues, then yeah.
Isn't that interesting too speculative for me
it's absolutely for me as well because we haven't seen an emerging market rally in like two decades
and that's the perspective i like to look at um flows into the us versus out of the us
and technically if you zoom out enough on the dY We've had higher low and higher low and higher low since 2008
Leading into blow-off-top in 2022
So a dollar appreciating environment
The flows of capital are into the United States
So my two cents, for the fun of it
If you zoom out on the DXY, Donnie, and check out the six-month chart
You're going to see some nice cyclicality back to the 1970s.
I dare to say we're clearly entering the next cycle where the dollar comes down over a period of time.
But does that lead into not just a cyclical period, but also a secular trend change where we have maybe the next 10, 15 years of lower high and lower low on a relative dollar valuation basis?
Yeah, that would be mental.
And it's definitely, if there was ever a pivot point to that sort of secular trend change change it would be here if it's going to happen
i would think because there's definitely something brewing with btc uh even the u.s government
their interest in btc and how everything is being laid out sort of for that shift
but yeah it'll be very interesting so i look the gold in that regard so a Bitcoin price is noise we obviously have
the narrative of the administration policy we have the corporate narrative
the seller and whatnot the gold price that charts insane that's up into the
right so that it's indicating the structural change in the money supply and
on how dollars are created how much dollars are needed to service outstanding liabilities.
And if there's a time from at least the DXY inspection
standpoint for a secular trend shift to occur,
coupled with de-globalization and repatriation
of supply chain narratives, time is kind of right around now
yeah fully agree that'll be an interesting interesting environment
isn't that technically the technically that's a super psychic narrative yeah it
is Bobby that'll be good for our our coin bags man yeah yeah i mean some things
on chain have been nice uh to play for a bounce to be honest it just kind of it's just hey dude
it if we're gonna if we're just gonna chop if we're just gonna chop until september like we've
been doing over the last three years right we did that in 23 we did
that in 24 if they're going to try to do that again and we end up pumping in august which by
the way um like the market still pumped in august uh and early september of 2020 and also 2021.
Like those two years,
though major bottoms have always been put in in July.
So maybe that happens again, right?
Like the top was in December and we just chop range and it kind of falls in line with what I kind of think
is going to happen in the second half of the year
where the long China and long global markets trade is going to be over and it's going to be long U.S. equities.
And that happened during Trump's first year, right?
During Trump's first year, you had the NASDAQ, the IWM all being outperformed by other global markets, right, in their indices.
by other global markets, right, in their indices.
But then that trade ended in September.
And when equity markets in the U.S.
started to outperform other global markets
from September onwards,
that's when you had what people now call alt season
where BTC dominance shits the bed, right?
It might not shit the bed as much
because the flows on BTC are inherently different.
It hasn't really been crazy retail from previous cycles,
but we could see somewhat of a pullback as we've seen.
More specifically, others BTC,
where we had a multi-month rally from October of 23
all the way till I think january february of 24 and that's when every
single sector uh did pretty pretty well and that's when eth also rallied from 1400 to 4100
so maybe something and something that can play out as like i don't know eth going from 1400 to like 5,000, 6,000 or something like that. Right?
But... 10k ETH.
10k ETH.
Oh, boy.
Wouldn't that be something, man?
Wouldn't that be something?
I think if the DXY goes to 100, ETH BTC will bottom.
Oh, 100.
Oh, my God.
Yeah.
So until then, let's not rule out ETH just yet.
It's really difficult, man.
It's incredibly difficult.
I remember during the last phase,
I just kind of got tired on touching on ETH
because it's so ETH, bro.
It's so ETH, bro. It's so,
like,
instead of saying like,
or ew,
it's ETH.
Like,
you see something nasty,
and it's like,
ETH,
you know?
Oh, gosh.
I hope this is,
I hope this is a higher low.
I really do.
I really do.
But,
it's,
I don't know,
maybe I shouldn't really, I shouldn't I don't know. Maybe I shouldn't really
say much, man.
I shouldn't really say much.
Well, bear in mind, I'm a fat
app thesis kind of guy.
So at some point, I expect the applications
on Ethereum to be more valuable than the
Ethereum network, specifically
considering they're all banking-related.
You know, foreign exchange,
credit, derivatives, and other
banking- type services.
I like it when
Ethereum goes down. That means gas fees are cheaper.
That means it's cheaper to buy Ethereum
to engage on the network.
And that's just, I don't look at
ETH as an investment
and I don't see depreciating ETH
as a negative on the overall ecosystem.
My two cents.
Paul, what's a negative on the overall ecosystem my two cents
paul what's uh what's your uh timeline for um potentially higher highs on btc here do you have like a rough timeline estimate in your head from all the charts you're looking at and what you
think the fed might do and stuff like that well you know obviously i do look at the bitcoin chart
but i see it as more noise than signal.
I'm more interested in the forward-looking indicators. Everything revolves around leads
and lags. So I want to understand why would Bitcoin go up? And obviously, I understand the
corporate narrative and the administration narrative, which we've discussed. And clearly,
the flows into Bitcoin have been extraordinary considering
its relative lack of depreciation compared to plenty of other assets. But the leading indicator
that tells us if Bitcoin is going to go up, historically speaking, is the relative valuation
of foreign currency. The more valuable foreign currency it is, the more purchasing power people around the world have, which means they are going to figure out ways to spend money, which means inevitably it all bleeds over into things that are appreciating the most or, you know, at much less liquid than US equities or United States Treasury market or foreign equities market.
Therefore, it has much more volatility when it goes to the upside and equally to the downside.
So all you'd have to do is have a little bit of that appreciating foreign currency for the Bitcoin to get, you know, 20 percent rallies.
And that gets further appreciation. And before you know know it you have a self-perpetuating
cycle and those are the exact cycles that we've experienced over the years
what i want to see is the the dxy break below the weekly 200 sma we start to see it fall below 102
towards 100 and what i tell my viewers is is that's when things start to get weird.
Start.
Yeah, I agree.
I have a slight shorter term bias as to the expansion of BTC
just because I think the market just front runs
any of these leading indicators by a little bit.
And that front running has picked up more over time, in my opinion, for these things.
So kind of leaning towards May and June, given these forward indicators continue the trend
for us to be potentially breaking to new all-time highs on BTC.
That's what I think.
I absolutely agree with you the way you frame it.
It's a market's a forward looking type argument.
And what you say makes perfect sense. Absolutely agree with you the way you frame it. It's a market's a forward looking type argument.
And what you say makes perfect sense.
Well, there's someone asking up to come and talk.
Guys, if you're in the audience and you want to come up, request a talk, give any of your thoughts on the market or any questions, there's a little button below on the bottom left yes and go ahead and click that and uh i'll bring you right on up and as i said earlier in the space i kind of want to make this space um as efficient and data packed as possible because
i know a lot of you guys are rushing to start your weekend so if you guys want to come on up
give any your thoughts on the market have any, give any of your thoughts on the market,
have any questions for any of us here on the panel,
go ahead and click that request button on the bottom left
and I'll bring you right on up.
Before I do that, Noah, Donnie,
is there anything else that you want to bring up
before I bring up some people for the Q&A?
Patience. i bring up some people for the uh q a patience every directionality unless there's an
interruption in the current directionality right now directionality
favors continuation into a good period more than continuation of the previous trend into a bad period.
All right.
I'll bring up Justin.
Justin, what's going on, brother?
Hey, thanks for having me up.
I hopped on the call about 45 minutes ago or so, and I think it was Noah that I heard
talking about this move index, the kind of volatility measure of the bond market.
And that's not something I've been familiar with in the past. And as we've been on this call,
I've been just sitting on TradingView, kind of looking at this chart. And Noah was referencing
it kind of as a leading indicator of where equity markets go. And I was wondering what your opinion
was. I might have missed this, you might have said
it. But right now I'm looking, you know, at the chart, and it looks like this move indicator is
definitely core inversely correlated with kind of like, I'm just looking at the S&P 500.
Historically, when this move indicator goes up, especially in 2022, you could see that it was a
pretty good indicator of the S&P being topped in 2022 and it kind of coming down off of that.
Right now, this move indicator is it's trending down.
And this whole sell off that we've had in Bitcoin and equity markets has not been reflected really in this move indicator.
And I was wondering if you could comment on that, maybe talk a little bit more about it.
I was wondering if you could comment on that, maybe talk a little bit more about it.
Just whatever your thoughts are on that, because I think it's pretty interesting and appreciate you bringing that to our attention.
Yeah, the move indicator. So here's something, a note to take away.
The United States equities markets is a U.S. market. The crypto markets are not a U.S. market. So the move
indicator is an expression of volatility in the U.S. treasury market, 10-year plus, which is to
some degree what like the VIX kind of does for U.S. equity markets. So the thing to understand
about the move indicator and treasuries is how the price of treasuries impacts the capacity for outside of the U.S. to print dollars.
So most of my understanding about capital markets and capital management is how the dollar is constructed.
And it's really a credit-based system, fractional reserve type stuff.
And the key word there is the euro dollar market.
So as 10-year to 30-year treasuries increase in price and the key word there is the euro dollar market so as 10 year to 30 year treasuries
increase in price and the yield comes down that's your collateral you have 10 million dollars worth
of 30 year treasuries you go to a bank in europe and say i want to borrow five million dollars of
dollars the bank isn't getting five million dollars they're crediting their account
with five million dollars worth of liabilities and that's basically the
euro dollar market in a nutshell so obviously if you have ten million
dollars worth of treasuries and the price of the Treasury is moving back and
forth two percent on a daily basis the move indicator is going to be through
the roof and the banks gonna be like yeah instead of five
now I'm gonna give you two and a half no because I don't I don't know about this loan so basically
what we want to see is a decrease in 10 to 30 year yield yields which is an increase in collateral
prices and you want to see that volatility come significantly down and that's when you have 10 mil worth of treasuries
and the bank's like all right it's been a relatively stable yield for the last two months
we're going to give you that five million dollars that you wanted because now it's good conditions
so this is why i refer to it as the global ave health factor avave is a great example of how liquidations work in crypto market terms.
And that's basically a decent analogy for how the global dollar printing system works. So you might
see like that inverse correlation with U.S. equities. I would say that's to a degree anecdotal
because ultimately U.S. equities is a U.S. market and the crypto markets are certainly not a U.S. equities is a U.S. market
and the crypto markets are certainly not a U.S. market.
I define them as an emerging market of emerging markets.
Thanks.
So if I understand correctly, the move indicator,
then you kind of interpret it as the ability,
I guess, for euro dollars to get printed, right?
So when that's coming down, bond yields are more stable.
Well, the price of a bond is more stable, so yields are more stable,
enabling bondholders to essentially borrow more against the bonds that they hold,
the U.S. treasuries that they hold.
Exactly.
Move indicator rolls over.
Treasury yields come down.
That's a forward-looking indicator on Global M2 going up and to the right.
Ah, okay, beautiful.
Hey, thank you for that.
I appreciate that.
I was not aware of this before, and so appreciate you bringing it to our attention,
and just all your commentary has been really helpful.
That's a pleasure Creed go ahead brother
hey how's it going
Donnie I gotta thank you
I don't think I got to thank you last time
for the base part coin play my first 100x
so I just have to say thank you real quick
I appreciate that
but outside of that I just have to say thank you real quick. I appreciate that.
But outside of that, I just want to ask about this fractal. It looks like Bitcoin's
playing at this fractal from 2023. I don't actually have the charts on me right now, but it was like July 23rd, like the end of the year. It looks like we're kind of speed running that fractal
like almost to a T.
So I just wanted to see if anybody saw that
or what they thought about it.
Which shot was that?
Sorry.
The Bitcoin fractal.
So July 20, July 2023.
So if you look at the chart from maybe say like June 1st
to the end of December,
we're like playing out that fractal
perfectly, it feels like.
And we're set to make a
higher low
here going into April.
I see.
I see what you mean.
Yeah, it's kind of similar.
Yeah.
And we've got a lot of confluence
to potentially put in a higher low here.
We can still put in the lower low,
but there's a ton of support below us anyway.
So I think it won't last long anyway.
Yeah, I agree.
I just have that overlaid
at my home desktop,
and it seems like we're about to play that out.
So I was just seeing if anybody else
was looking at that same fractal.
That was really about it.
All right, guys.
I'm going to go ahead and wrap up the stream here.
Noah, Justin, Cree, Donnienie i want to thank you all for coming up
thank you guys for coming up for your questions captain donnie thank you guys for joining me to
rants and banter about all things markets shout out to all you guys in the audience i'm pretty sure
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Market Check, which is our morning show at 11 a.m. ESC covering all things technical
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Have a nice weekend. Thank you. Thank you. Bye bye, guys.
