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Market Talk- INSANE market melt up incoming for Crypto and stocks!?
Recorded: May 6, 2025 Duration: 1:17:19Space Recording
Short Summary
In a lively discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored the current market dynamics, highlighting a surge in community engagement with nearly 1,000 live viewers. The conversation underscored Bitcoin's long-term growth potential, the impact of economic conditions on investor sentiment, and the evolving trends in speculative investments within the crypto space.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Music Music Music
Music
Music
Music
Music
Music
Music
Music
Music
Music
Music Music Music Music Music Music Oh, yeah. keep it
I've come to y'all, nothing gonna stop it, there's nothing that's wrong.
So close now, you're really at the brink, so we'll try.
Oh yeah!
Welcome to the limits.
Welcome to the limits.
Take it, baby, one step more.
Our game's still playing.
So we let it win. so
Oh No one left to stand in your way.
Life didn't care, but you'll never be saved by you. Oh Welcome to the limits.
Still on the razor's edge.
Don't look down, just keep your head.
Welcome to the land.
Welcome to the land. what is going on guys welcome back to market talk welcome back welcome back man yesterday's show was absolutely incredible guys i don't
remember the last time i had a stream like that with nearly 1 000 live in the audience
and it was myself and donnie going at it with like 10 different stratified bros. And somehow the conversation ended up going towards supply chain dynamics
and creatine and all that stuff.
It was quite hilarious, man.
If you guys missed out on yesterday's stream of Market Talk,
I'd strongly encourage you guys to go on ahead and uh take a listen to the replay
was absolutely phenomenal two and a half hours of uh not only alpha but also um some good quality
entertainment right you know i know some of you guys have been uh tuning into these shows whether
the market is up where the market is down or where the market is
Choppy and that's mostly because you guys I'm sure are entertained right everybody knows that in the long term Bitcoin is up only against almost any asset all coins are always gonna be around because human greed will always be a thing in
Pretty much any kind of market. I mean just take a look at the real estate market right now. Those
things are acting like shit coins right now, right? Properties that were bought in the early
seven-figure range are now being foreclosed at minus 60%, 70% down, which is absolutely unheard
of, man. Imagine being a real estate boomer and buying the top of the housing market in 2023 and getting rug pulled isn't that something man uh but um man before i touch into the markets man
i do want to mention this strange anomaly uh i was taking a look at uh cs2 go skins
and those things in the last six months are up like 500 600 and i saw a thread
uh here on x talking about how we need to bring the cs2 go people on chain but i thought to myself
like how are these people in the gaming space going to feel when they try to mimic that same market and then they get rug pulled and
they get rug pulled in 10 minutes right um but nonetheless i digress i'm going to go ahead and
talk marcus for you guys kind of give uh my opening statement but first and foremost i want
to thank every single one of you that uh are tuning in live to the space or listening to
the recording i appreciate every single one of you, whether
you've recently joined us or you've been tuning in over the last months or years.
Appreciative of you all. Hope you've all had a fantastic start to your week. Hope you've all
had a wonderful Tuesday or start to your Wednesday, depending on where you are.
This is Market Talk brought to you by Because Bitcoin. I your host wabi i'm here joined by donnie uh we're gonna be having eric on as well i see uh afro in the audience
i sent afro an invite to speak and i'm also gonna send dom's crypto an invite to speak you know i had
afro on here on the show when ai16Z pumped from like 2 mil to 80 mil,
and it ended up just going absolutely berserk, man.
But that Shaw guy has some clear mental issues, right?
There's some drama going on in the AI space.
Fortunately, the dev and founder of Zerebro has apparently not done the nicest things to himself,
and that's causing quite a bit of commotion in this AI sector within crypto.
But mental health is very, very, very important, guys.
Please recognize that markets are always going to be around and the greatest
investment that you can ever make uh to the greatest investment that you'll ever make in
your entire life is within yourself especially when it comes to uh all things health and uh
things of that nature right take care of yourselves guys uh there's no point in accruing so much USD value there's
there's no point in in occurring so much value in assets whether it's stocks real estate or crypto
if everything else goes to shit right so I did I did want to touch on that because I am a strong advocate of all things mental health.
And that's why I always, you know, I always like to preach the gospel to you guys about Jesus Christ.
Anytime I get the chance to, especially towards the end of the spaces, right?
Always like to pass down something that's greater than just a few tickers or a few thoughts on the market and all those other things.
And I strongly advocate other content creators and other streamers
in the crypto space to venture out into these things, right? Anybody can talk markets,
but few can pass down mental jewels, right? I call them mental jewels, guys. But going back
to markets, guys, we do have the FOMC tomorrow. Markets today are a bit choppy, a little bit of a dip ski on Farcoin. Hyperliquid
going near range highs again. Sui also on a little bit of a dip ski. Equity is kind of choppy. And
we've seen this kind of price action before, before a rip to the upside. Typically, whenever
we go into an FOMC, dimming a bit down, sort of a little bit of a lower time frame local bear trap.
We always tend to have a resolution to the upside.
I remain perpetually optimistic.
I'm sure some of you guys are as well.
But we do have the other side of the camp that does think, you know, we deserve or we should rather have one more sweep of the low on the S&P.
rather have one more sweep of the low on the S&P. You even have Paul Tudor Jones talking about how
he believes that the equity markets should make one more lower low, perhaps to the 200 weekly
moving average, which is just below 4,700. But there are some people that some would consider
smart. I consider quote unquote smart, right? Smart is relative. Smart
is very relative. Some people are calling for the S&P to go to 4,400, right? But, you know,
we'll have to see, right? A move to 4,400 would be indicative of a move of 15% to the downside in the equity markets.
The market right now doesn't really seem to care about tariffs.
And I'm just not in the camp, and I'm sure some others aren't as well,
where you'll see iPhones double in price.
I'm just not sure that's going to be a thing.
Consumer goods going by 2x, 3x, right?
Because of something that's going on in trucking, right?
I'm just not believing that.
It really does remind us of the rhetoric that was going on in 2022.
When you had CPI going through the roof and we had that CPI print of over 9%. And you had some OG Bitcoiners
that have been in the space for 12, 13 years talking about how CPI is going to go to near 30%.
Rates are going to go back to double digits, similar to the Volcker era. And we're going to
be paying 20 pounds. We're going to be paying 20 a pound for for regular chicken breast at walmart
and i mean a couple of years later we all know how that panned out right so it actually does
pay to be perpetually optimistic in the markets especially when a lot of the herd has seemed to
a lot of the herd has seemed to be entrapped by so much bearishness.
And you guys will remember if you tuned into that space the first Friday of April,
myself and Donnie were having a very entertaining discussion with Matt and Joe
talking about how Mindshare right now when it comes to macro doom
is at such a huge huge level that
if we were to invert it it would basically be the same as when btc had that 100k breakout
and i've mentioned this time and time again and the reason why is because all this has been leading
to this fomc meeting and here we are and all of these spaces has been recorded.
Anybody can go ahead and check them out. I was extremely, extremely bearish from early February
all the way until that dumpski that we had in early April, right? Tweeted it out in real time, told the Discord in real time
that at the very least, it's time to play a huge bounce.
Since then, BTC well up over 30%, 40%.
I think 40% at the peak.
I think we hit just below 98k.
Seoul was up over 50%. Even ETH put in a nice move. 50 even eth put in a nice move iwm put in a nice move
and right now i just i i just feel like being bearish during some actual accumulation after
a massive spike up isn't really anything to be concerned about um And as we've seen, these narratives concerning tariffs and all of
that have mostly gone away now. The market just seems to shrug it off. So unless some other black
swan happens, the path of least resistance still remains to the upside. And there is a massive, massive, massive chance for what I consider to be a melt-up across all assets.
And that would be indicative of the S&P testing its old all-time high.
That would be indicative of BTC blasting through $100K, Solana blasting through $200, even ETH blasting their $2,300.
I want to be at least a little optimistic about Ethereum.
And of course, that would coincide with the IWM catching somewhat of a bid.
And the most important news of the day, the most important topic that I want to touch on is the Federal Reserve has injected $20 billion into the Treasury market.
And every single time that that's upside over the next two three quarters right
so history doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes and it is going to pay to be patient
right that's uh pretty much my opening statement guys but before I officially get started before myself
Donnie and Afro and some of the other guys on the panel they're gonna be joining here pretty
sure gonna be joining us here pretty soon before we cook for you guys over the next hour so if you
guys can please please please please please show some love to the space. You guys always do a great job of showing your love and support to us here at BecauseBitcoin.
But for us, for those of you that don't know how to show your love and support, the best
way that you can do that, guys, is by clicking the Spaces tab.
And once you do that, you'll see all of our profile pictures.
You'll see that giant yellow screen that says BecauseBitcoin.com with the yellow checkmark. You'll see Don of our profile pictures you'll see that giant yellow square that says because bitcoin.com with the yellow check mark you'll see donnie's profile picture you'll see afro's
profile picture if you guys can go ahead show some love to the space you'll see a little link
that says x.com slash i slash spaces smash the like button smash the repost button helps bring
more people in here and all that stuff i see lieutenant ponzi here in the audience man i
haven't spoken to him since 2023 brother come on up here man if you want to come up and uh
talk markets man would love uh to have you and have a quick chat man but nonetheless guys welcome
back to the stream thank you all so much for showing all your love and support i'll kick it
on over first to donnie donnienie, what's going on, brother?
This is the time that we've all been waiting for, man.
Everything is shaping up.
And isn't it odd that the day before FOMC, the Fed injects billions into the treasury markets. And we've seen, as I stated earlier in my rant, that typically whenever you've had the fed inject billions into treasuries
uh this one being the three-year notes the next six months are very very very bullish
hey brother i didn't actually see that um post about the fed i need to actually go and read it
that sounds pretty hectic.
Is it 100% confirmed sort of thing?
Yeah, they injected it into the three-year notes.
Is it an injection or have they just tapered QT or something like that even more?
It's an injection.
It's an injection.
So if we combine that with the official ending of QT, which I truly think is more probable than not going to come at a higher low on the S&P.
Like if you notice today, right, the S&P is kind of down a bit.
It's actually down like a percent, a percent and a half from that high that we hit earlier this week.
It's always during a higher low where they always do something that at some point is
going to cause animal spirits to come back.
Sort of like, you know, what we saw in October of 2023.
Yeah, that setup's very similar to what we have now
even contextually
not identical of course but like same sort of thing
yeah markets are looking good
and obviously you know I was trying to tell
some people yesterday we've literally been pumping
from the lows for like
almost a month straight
so you know pullbacks are imminent
and you need bears to get loud on every single
pullback, just like how we had in the last range that we were in, and from 74k to 49k,
when we built that higher low on the chart and started, you know, subsequently trending up from
there. Every single pullback was like super, you know, loud and frightening and all that kind of
stuff. So, you know, I'm kind of expecting the same thing,
just a little bit sharper than that,
just based off of the setup that we have
that we discussed yesterday with a better liquidity backdrop
and a pulling back on the tariff,
posturing and all that kind of stuff.
But yeah, S&P, you literally came up to
a perfect point of market structure at 5,700. And you're pulling
back to that prior little range you were in, where you broke that three-tap trend line around
5,500. So again, it's right before FOMC. You'd expect nothingness or a little bit of a pullback
going into any FOMC that's upcoming. So yeah, just normal
price action, boredom until that. And we'll see what the Fed says. So that can definitely goose
the market higher and get things rolling. But I keep seeing this narrative of the fact that retail
bought the stock market low in record amounts. And it's just seeming like another
narrative or a psyop to make people think that you're going to revisit the lows, either for the
people who bought the bottom to, you know, take profit and sell now so they can, you know, get
another stab at the lows, or the people who are sidelined to stay sidelined. Like you have to view
everything as a psyop at the moment and just actually trade the data
and the charts. And I feel like that's a really good one because you've got, I think hedge funds
are targeting 5,300 and they're never wrong or something like that. A lot of these narratives,
right? But when you look at the backdrop of all of the leading indicators and even the technical
setups, it's looking good to me. So I wouldn't be surprised if that doesn't happen
and you actually just start trending higher,
probably from this FOMC or the following week after that.
Yeah, clear level on the stock market, 5,800 if you cross that.
A lot of people are going to flip bullish
and that's ultimately going to push the market
even higher right they have every right to flip bullish at that level that's the origin of the
move that sent us to 4800 and the last point of market structure on the chart so very clear
obvious level to uh you know flip into a sharp uptrend and you know that, I think BTC is obviously going to gain strength because we've
kind of reverted back to this risk on risk off sort of market dynamic instead of kind of that
narrative that was trying to be pushed of BTC decoupling from the stock market. I think we're
slightly decoupled at that bottom because we led from the lows,
but now you're kind of synced back up again. So you're kind of dependent on what happens to the
S&P here again. But one thing that just clicked to me while you were talking about the Fed injecting
billions or whatever you said, is that gold is actually starting to trend back to the all-time high and you know typically gold is quite good at sniffing out um you know or has a good site
for anticipation for more liquidity or more fiat creation so the fact that you said that and gold's
having a rally today is kind of like suspicious of wow we might just be getting you know, more and more liquidity pouring out over the next like few months or so.
We'll see where this rally goes.
Because ultimately, if gold keeps rallying here,
there will be a point where it does cool off
and the risk on markets actually do catch a bid.
And subsequently, gold has a correction.
The higher gold goes here,
kind of the more upside potential I would expect for BTC
when that risk on, risk off thing kind of flips back to risk.
So I don't know.
It's very suspicious timing with what you said.
And also if I just drop this chart of the DXY,
I noticed this last night.
A channel from going all the way back to the financial crisis of 2008 on DXY,
if you guys just click in the nest,
you see a very clean, highly respected channel ever since then.
And that's kind of where this whole four-year cycle as we know it
has kind of cemented itself.
Since that 2008 financial crisis,
we've gone through this constant debt refinancing cycle
and subsequently printing of money
and loosening and tightening of policy.
So every time we've revisited the bottom of this channel,
we've spent a minimum of 150 days at that low
and all the way up to like 300, 300 days plus.
Right now, the current setup we have with DXY is we had a touch of the top of the channel from the COVID blowout. And we actually
haven't been sub 100, which is a very critical level for DXY for about 1100 days. So just over
three years. And we're finally structurally broken down from 100
and looking to trend towards the bottom of this channel
where we've spent 150 to 300 days
every time we've come into this bottoming area,
which is massive contextually for our cycle.
We have a cycle where global liquidity does want to expand if the conditions are right.
And this is one of the staple conditions that we would need for that to happen. So I think the
bottom of this channel is around 95. You've had deviations of it as well. It's not really how low
DXY goes from here. It's more so how much time is spent, let's say, in the mid to low 90s for that, you
know, unlocking of global liquidity and just easing of financial conditions globally. So it's looking
super good. And, you know, this channel has been respected for eight years, so it does have a lot
of validity to it. So everything is just shaping up to more fiat creation worldwide.
And this rally on gold is also giving it away.
Because you've come up to this macro 2.618 Feb,
which in the last macro range, I think I posted a chart a while back.
I don't have it ready on me right now.
But you had a high in the 1980s on gold around $850.
And then you bottomed out around $275 and you spent like, how many
years is that? Almost 30 years in a range, creating like a macro range where when you
came up in 2011 for a new high around 2000, you'd come up to the 2.618 FED. So, you know, that 2.618 got respected,
and this one currently is not being respected, which, you know, if gold does go higher here,
again, all of the things are tying into more expansion in global liquidity, which is just
going to be bullish for BTC once we have the risk on environment actually confirm itself.
So a lot of things are lining up. You know, The timing can be tricky of when it all does unfold,
but I'm thinking sooner rather than later,
based off of many things we've discussed over these spaces.
But one of the key ones prior to all of this unfolding
was kind of the sentiment check that we had during the lows
of this idea that Q4 is 100% bullish, and we're going
into a recession first, or we're just going to chop for six months.
So what's the most offside trade from that?
You start rallying sooner, and actually the start of Q4 is either a massive correction
and reaccumulation period or a cycle top.
That's the most offside trade at the moment
and people are actually caught offside because retail bought the bottom with record amounts on
the smp and uh btc actually front ran the um the clean retest from the 2024 high by like i think
500 or 600 uh in price so i don't know. Everything is shaping up for this melt-up Wabi
that we've been scoping out for some time.
And even the timing of like April and May
potentially starting a run.
We had scoped this out ever since the Fed pivoted hawkish
in December of 2024.
I think we came up to 108,000 and then we had a correction down to like 90k or
something like that. We were scoping out the timeline of 2017 because contextually it was
the same as the cycle with Trump, with the dollar having the same structure on the chart and the
liquidity hiccup that we had both in 2017 and last year Q4 with TXY rallying to break that range high, right?
That caused the liquidity hiccup, and then you had the expansion to the downside,
which fixed that back up again.
So, I don't know, everything's lined up for this next one to three months
to smash the highs on BTC, right?
Yeah, man, I think we go test uh 103 you remember that key pivotal level
back in december i i bitcoin yeah yeah yeah yeah and i think we kind of like chop around for like
a week at least man let some alts catch up and at this point i feel like the narrative with btc dominance is going to reach a crescendo kind of like a climax oh an actual blow off top
um in dominance and i'm thinking like maybe a little over 70 percent will do the trick and
i think at that point like a double digit correction wouldn't be off the cards
especially if we think it's it's close to that point where you know we're entering we're we're
going to go into q3 at some point and q3 historically has been known as pivot points
in fed policy right in q3 of 2023 we had uh that the the the final rate hike right
it was effectively the pause and in q3 of last year we had uh our first batch of cuts so i mean
i i think i i think at this point it's going to be uh well give me one second
yeah with the dominance thing going to be... Hold on, give me one second.
Yeah, with the dominance thing going to 70 or potentially even deviating above 70,
it's definitely possible because you have new demand,
new market participants stepping in at very high levels on the chart with size.
So again, every cycle prior has led with Bitcoin USD going up
with Bitcoin dominance going up.
And eventually comes a psychological level where everyone has a price where they are going to sell.
But the risk on environment is still open, right?
They see the window open.
They still want to bid other things that haven't like shot up so much.
If BTC, let's say, runs to $150,000, you know, the psychology behind that is if, you know, people have been holding for many years, let's say, even to 150,000, the psychology behind that is
if people have been holding for many years,
let's say even from 15K, 20K, 30K, whatever,
they're thinking in their head,
do I hold for another 2X or 50%?
Or should I rotate this into ETH?
It looks like ETH is coming back
and maybe I can make an easier 50% on ETH.
And that kind of psychology is what creates
the first correction in Bitcoin's
like kind of blow off top rally.
And then subsequently that liquidity goes
down the risk curve
and you see a drop off in Bitcoin dominance.
So I think it's too early for that.
And it would actually be more bullish
if let's say BTC rallies to 150,
you get a sharp short correction
that lasts maybe like three, four weeks, five weeks,
you reaccumulate there and then you send again.
But on that correction is where you'd see kind of Bitcoin dominance start to give and
you'd see other charts looking much stronger locally than the Bitcoin chart, like ETH,
for example.
I just think it's too early for it to happen, right?
Sub 100K, for example, and anywhere even under 120K
seems a little bit too early.
But again, it's still bullish.
If BTC USD is going up
with Bitcoin dominance,
alts will still get dragged along with it.
They won't just like melt away, right?
So just got to be a bit more patient
for that quote unquote alt season
because I think it will come
if all of
this plays out but you know not on this next rally straight away right it could be very uh likely
that you might have to wait like you know let's say we start breaking the highs in uh the end of
may or the start of june you might have to wait another four or five weeks after that to start getting real bids on alts, maybe.
Just a random timeline in my head of how it could play out.
Yeah.
I know we were talking about Q4.
I don't really like this word, but seasonality.
Usually people get like you know extremely excited
about uh all things markets in q4 and q1 because one um your retail participant right or just
really anybody with a job a job career whatever q4 is essentially when um consumer spending
in the year is at the highest more More consumer spending, more activity, more activity in exchange of like, you know, bills for services usually means bonuses, usually means salary increases.
Salary increases usually happen in Q1 along with bonuses, right?
So in Q4, retail individuals get more hours at work more spending at these businesses
means bigger checks um you know for the higher ups and all that stuff and of course um everyone at
this point right in our generation already knows about these markets so that's usually when everyone
gathers at the thanksgiving table the christmas, they discuss, you know, what's hot, what's trending and all of that.
I mean, Q4, I mean, just take a look at Moonshot.
Moonshot was flipping Kraken across all metrics.
It was flipping Coinbase.
It was flipping, you even flipped Robinhood, right?
Despite all those apps climbing the App Store at some point, Moonshot actually reached number one along fan alongside with phantom wallet right so um
that's why people are generally bullish for those time periods but q1 was definitely a different
story and i genuinely thought that after that airdrop from jupiter at the market was gonna go bazankas but after a week it was like all right
obviously obviously like the people that have driven this market from the lows are kind of
exhausted at least that's how i felt right like going into mid-feb it was kind of like yes you
know people the people in this market that have been active since
the ftx were kind of exhausted but you're you're sort of seeing them come back like you're starting
to see some some optimism skepticism is always going to be there but you always need that fuel
that contrarian view um to tread higher right in 2023 like the main enemy was gary gensler right like crypto always needs a
villain it needs a bad guy and in 23 it was gary suing all these companies and all that stuff svb
going down uh jerome powell hiking rates still and very aggressively even after silicon valley bank went under and all that stuff and we treaded higher and
the narrative in 2024 was oh kamala kamala is running kamala is running right that was like
like uh the market's villain right they're gonna tax you on unrealized uh capital gains right but
this time around it's like there's no villain there's no villain at all there's no
opposing side as a matter of fact the villain is the fed yeah yeah yeah yeah like their
their tightness right whether it's warranted or not that's what's being portrayed as the villain
so i feel like when they do pivot, it's going to make the market
roar.
For fundamental reasons,
but also that.
Yeah, the next
thing that
we're waiting for now is
what Pal has to say tomorrow, man.
But I want to get some thoughts from Afro.
Afro, what's going on, man?
It's been a long time since we were on a space together, man.
What are you seeing out there in the markets?
What's your take on the conversation and stuff like that?
Yo, Afro Duck.
Are you there, brother?
Afro.
I think I...
Your mic is muted, man.
Or I think he's away from the mic.
I think we yapped
for too long man
hey we shared some good alpha yeah yeah man i guess i can talk about like just some local levels
on bitcoin as well because it's pretty important right now um you've had like a massive build up
in liquidity in this like local range that you've been in, we've been trading around 95k
and trying to attempt going to 99.5,
the key level for the upside squeeze.
But you've just been mostly trading sideways,
but kind of like trending up.
I think more likely than not
that you do clean up all of these WIC lows,
which they go all the way down to 91.7
and also a nice little order
block around 91.3 on the Bitcoin chart to where I think if you do take out those lows, it's probably
going to give you a stronger move to the upside. But I've also been saying it's not a bad idea to
just keep your mind open to a bullish bias to where, just because of the backdrop of liquidity and the fact that you
can have one news-related post to where risk appetite can return in five minutes, that you
could have a candle come out of nowhere to just wipe any sort of local low-time frame structure
structure that you might be seeing that might be looking like it will send prices a little bit
that you might be seeing that might be looking like it will send prices a little bit lower.
lower. There's also that. So, you know, you should welcome any dips if you're sidelined and you want
to take a position. It's going to be very hard to take a position. Like, for example, if I didn't
buy the bottom and I had to buy now or look to buy now, it would be very tough to buy and I would
be managing my positions in case case you know they go lower
than i bought it would be very scary but you know that's kind of how as the prices slip away
it fuels that uh typical you know renewed optimism fomo euphoria rally that we are setting up really
well for yeah man that that that that point that uncle joe was talking about yesterday talking about
the uh what was it the jpm like put option or whatever um to my understanding uh jp morgan
has um been bullish at tops and bearish at bottoms from from what I recall and Jamie
Diamond has like not really cared about this industry publicly for a very long
time but maybe a higher low on the S&P right like if we actually don't pump
from here maybe a higher low on the S&P at, like, 5,300,
something like that, 5,200 even.
And that's pretty much it, in my opinion.
I just feel like the fuel for downside has already been exhausted.
Like, they had so, so, so, so, so many opportunities to nuke this thing uh to nuke
the spx all the way down to the 200 weekly moving average to 4600 or to even 4300 which is the august
2022 high um during that time period right it's it all we all we have to do is invert that right like from november to the inauguration
they had all the juice to fuel everything as quickly as possible as high as possible
and it is what it is right it is what it is these trends whether to the upside or downside
have typically only lasted about six to eight weeks you have six to eight weeks to feel as much upside and
downside as possible and you remember that conversation we were having yesterday like
the tradify guys like they tried to make us look stupid when i pointed out how like you know buying
assets when the spx is down over 20 is usually indicative that the low is in but then it's like oh no the SPX actually bottomed
Four months after yeah, it did but crypto specifically didn't really make that much lower lows if we're talking BTC specifically and
the the
the predicament of all coins making lower lows after that
Was because FTX went under, right?
That's the only reason why.
If it wasn't for that, if it wasn't for 3AC, none of the apocalyptic prices that we saw would have ever happened.
And in 2022, we had a rising CPI and we had aggressive rate hikes.
So the context is a bit different here. The fact that you had the S&P going down
23% from its high in six weeks and the NASDAQ about 25, 27% in six weeks without there being
any turmoil in rates or CPI or anything fundamental that affects the consumer in a direct way as much as CPI, then that's the bottom.
And these tariff situations are always blown out of proportions.
This trade war that's been going on over the last couple of months, it happened.
Dude, it literally happened in 2018.
Did the price of iPhones and all that stuff go up? No, it's just
ridiculous, man.
Those are kind of my thoughts on that, man.
Yeah, it seemed
like the majority of that room was convinced
that the year will end strong,
but right now, we're either going to do
nothing in chop or go lower.
So again, you're coming back to that
narrative that was pushed
of recession first.
Q4 is 100% bullish.
And I just think that's way too much of a crowded opinion with all of the back end of forward-looking indicators already looking strong right now.
And prices already starting to reverse from the narrative shifting.
shifting, you know, because it was a bearish narrative to assist the bearish move down.
Because it was a bearish narrative to assist the bearish move down.
So we actually discussed this at the, I think like last week or something, where we were
talking about how they inverted Trump as a narrative twice, bullish at the highs, sell
the news, bearish at the lows, buy the bottom.
And, you know, it's just playing out so nicely because they started backing off on that posturing on the tariffs.
And, you know, when you had that bond market volatility spike, instantly you had headlines being like, oh, no, no, you know, we've got these tools to help the bond market.
The Fed even said they would intervene if it gets bad and this kind of stuff.
So they stress tested the system as much as they could with, you know, whatever they were planning on that, you know, tariff posturing at the time,
whether it's negotiations or whatever.
But I think soon after that quickly realized that, you know,
you spend another week with that sort of posturing and things are going to,
people are going to get margin called, things are going to break.
So, you know, I think, I feel like that's why prices are reversing.
It's not like some random reason.
It's literally because they are backing off
on their posturing on the tariffs,
which is what was causing a risk-off environment
in the psychology of market participants.
So you're having that removed, the fear,
and a very nice backdrop of DXY has lost
a very critical level of global liquidity
at all-time highs
and all the other stuff we talked about plus like i just shared the chart again from yesterday of
the 1998 uh to 2025 example of the stock market honestly it feels like you're going to get the
same thing like back then they had um the fed actually cut rates in quick succession i think
three back to back which kind of gave the market a bit more reassurance.
They were really like, you know,
stepping into kind of renew confidence
back into the market and all that kind of stuff.
You had a similar sort of recovery.
And if you look at that chart,
it's like honestly identical.
That's such a clean fractal
from like even the high,
the fake out that you had at the high to right where the FUD begins
and the reversal from the low.
It's very similar, right?
These big players in the S&P, they need euphoria to exit massive positions
if there's ever going to be a rotation out of growth stocks
into hard assets like gold and BTC.
It's not just going to nuke to zero and no one gets to rotate who's got the biggest holdings
in the whole asset class.
It's just not how it works.
So higher first, and then you can talk about recessions after.
We can talk about that when SPX is trading at 6,900, huh?
Yeah, that's a key level what if that's like the actual mean that comes to fruition kind of like last cycle stop was 69k what if the s p
follows bitcoin steps steps and goes to 6900 stimulation Yeah. By the way, guys, if any of you here in the audience want to come up and chat,
if any of you guys are tuning into the stream and feel like giving your thoughts on the market,
if you feel like talking your book, if you have any questions to ask,
feel free to hit that request button.
If you open up the Spaces tab, at the bottom left, there's a little mic.
You guys can come up request
and you can either ask a question to myself and donnie talk your book give your thoughts on the
market and as i always state right um i like to have these conversations be somewhat engaging
and of course something that sparks thought and not just like basic q a um and i've
i've always said this i've always said this many times but i just find just basic q a to be a bit
boring i really i'm really not a fan of interviews at all but if you guys want to give your thoughts
on the market if you guys want to throw something out there that that maybe even myself and donnie um haven't spoken about and you
feel like it's a great touching point feel free uh to hit that request button um on the bottom left
there's a little over 300 of you here in this space and i'm sure at least like two or three of
you guys um two or three of you guys wanna wanna want to talk markets or specifically like talk your book or
something like that um i i think afro had some connection issues to spaces or whatever i think
he was on his laptop so i'm not sure if he's coming back um and i'm not even sure if eric
is gonna pull through um either i haven't heard from him i I did send Uncle Joe an invite, so maybe
he'll pull up, man.
Don, is there anything else that you want
to touch on, man? I just feel like
just can't really touch on anything
more broadly than what we're talking
about right now until
after DFOMC.
Yeah, exactly. And that's
kind of the whole stance of the whole market right
now is just wait until we get that out the way see what the fed has to say and then prices will
either react or just do nothing and start to you know just trend how they were um but yeah dovish
fed would definitely goose the market higher and one thing is with btc that key level of 99.5, which we've been talking ever since we nuked from that level, it's the origin of the nuke.
It's where you've got liquidity resting all the way up until 103.4, where you've got like a little bit of resistance around there.
So basically, if you get above 99.5, I think you're going to squeeze to like 104 pretty quickly um which could happen just from
the fed meeting tomorrow so we'll see we'll see how that goes but yeah there's not too much uh
to really discuss about that other than if you're sidelined you this could be the last ish sort of
good buying opportunity on some coins moving forward
if we do start to bolt up pretty quick.
But yeah, we'll see.
We'll have to see until the Fed meeting.
I think the worst pain that anyone could ever feel
is being sidelined on a pump.
That's always a risk.
It's actually a large rally
that we've been waiting on for ages.
I don't know, guys.
I don't think your melt-up and pump is factoring in India firing missiles at Pakistan, like within the two hours that just passed.
India and Pakistan are fighting?
Yeah, India just launched a couple missiles at Pakistan.
I was in the last space, and the guy that lives there in India,
they were reporting it on the news.
You know, there's war going on all the time.
I remember the World War III news that happened last year nothing crazy happened after
that it's really strange with like btc flush during that though say that again i said btc
flush during that one.
Yeah, we immediately ate that dip back up.
I remember when Germany sold their stack at 55.
We went from like 62 to 55, and within like two weeks we were at 70.
Same thing with that crash in April in april of last year we
dipped to 58 and a gcr tweet um occurred like a million people followed gcr after that tweet
and then um we spiked to 70 within a few weeks i see uncle joe here in the audience man um joe i
have a fair warning to give you you need to start panic
buying assets i'm trying to save you uncle joe i'm trying to save you i think now is the time to
put the pedal on the metal um all dips are for buying um money is not made in the trading it's
made in the waiting right i got a lot of flack for being bearish all the way from February to April. But now that I'm bullish, it's a crime. It's like, oh, taper your expectations. Like, relax a little bit. relax and i'll say it again when you have the indices drawing down by more than 20 percent
in less than two months and you don't have the same sort of crazy bonanza of bearish momentum
that you had in 2022 the path of least resistance is to the upside and that's indicative of a melt-up that's a melt-up across
every single risk asset so you know it's just a matter of of seeing that through so uncle joe
i'm sending you an invite to speak brother because there's a reason why you're here in the
in the listeners audience and not listening anonymously. That's actually a thing now, by the way, guys.
Like, you can actually listen to spaces anonymously.
So anytime I see Joe or somebody else up here showing their faces,
I'm going to call them out, man.
I'm going to call them out and bring them on up here.
So Uncle Joe, a.k.a. the 1942 elect
for the head of the Federal
Reserve,
J-PAL student, Paul Volker's
grandson.
Come on up, man.
But in the meantime,
Mar,
M-A-R-X-2-4.
How are you, man?
Thank you for having me up.
I think this is like my first time up speaking here in your space.
I think one time I was up, but I rugged completely.
I hope everyone is doing great.
I do want to bring up something that I've been seeing more and more and realizing it.
Maybe call me stupid that it took me such a long time to realize this.
And it's an opinion I want to express and it's a question at the same time.
I always look at the total market cap of the market.
And by the way, I got bearish during January.
Not with Bitcoin, with odds.
Just the fact that I thought.
He rugged.
Hey, man, you're rugged. Can't hear you, brother. Can't hear you at all, man, you're rugging.
Can't hear you, brother.
Can't hear you at all, man.
You're going to have to drop down and come back up.
You hear me now?
Yeah, you're good.
You cut off. You know, I'm looking at the total market cap and
i see the bitcoin dominance and you know mostly all my holdings are bitcoin i'm not uh uh you
know a maxi whatsoever i i do all my odds but every time i try to bring people into the space
and i feel like this is why we're stuck in in this you
know three point trillion market cap with all coins and we didn't have an all season is you
know a lot of the liquidity now it's spread because in 21 we were at three trillion and
ethereum was almost a 5k so you could see the liquidity spread all over the market
but my question and my opinion at the same time is people are realizing that there's nothing to offer in crypto right now.
That they could see more like the utility is in crypto and in the space.
That's it.
And people that I try to bring in are finding a hard time, like, where's the value?
Where is it at other than gambling?
And that's why I think mean coins are what it is now.
You know, people bet on the community and let's call or just hype.
And I think this is what we're struggling and what we need to break out of.
This is why I think real world assets, if, if you know and regulations had to do with it too
don't get me wrong regulations really slow this uh space uh but and i know a lot of people are
gonna say oh but bitcoin you know bitcoin is a it's a brand it's a name it's the only coin for me
in the whole space the rest is just software but where's that utility that's going to bring the massive of of uh of new uh you know
people investing into crypto uh especially retail you know where's that utility that makes me feel
comfortable in my investment because we have ethereum that has you know the utility it's a
blockchain it has it has tokens underneath it but But these tokens, 99% of them are garbage.
They can't even explain to you what they do outside of crypto.
And, you know, what is your take on that?
How can we, where do you see this going?
Because this is what I truly believe the market is going to explode
when tokens actually have real fucking utility not just the blockchain and if the
blockchain has garbage tokens then what's the whole point of the whole ecosystem you know
you there wabi yeah you want me to get that one yeah that's a you question bro
i think the casino is the product market fit man um when i say that because like
in 2020 and 2021 right the product market fit was high yield Ponzi's.
Reason for that is because we were in an environment
where there was quantitative easing in Zerb.
So people knew that because of the access direct stimulus
that their dollars were going to be devalued.
So the product market fit for that was
all right let me go into low-cap tech stock companies that are a beneficiary of qe and
zerb and what's the what's the direct beta to that it's defy right and you're not seeing defy
really pop off because there's no qe and zerirp qe and zirp incentivize obscene speculation
on ponzi-fied uh products you know block five stuff like that and this time around we have
the on-chain casino which is solana right and it goes back to economic policy, doesn't it? Isn't that odd, Donnie? It all goes back to economic policy.
Yeah, well, you know, most of these altcoin rallies or altcoin seasons and stuff, they're driven by retail, right? In the sense that they're at least the exit liquidity. They might not be moving the prices, you know, to these extremely high valuations, but they're at least the exit liquidity they might not be moving the prices you know to these extremely high valuations but they're at least the exit liquidity and right now the exit
liquidity is very broke so until the global financial picture looks a lot better it's pretty
hard to get that sort of uh euphoria and altcoins again right you can have them like selectively how
we've seen them sector by sector where AI catches a massive
bid, but it's just the same liquidity sloshing around instead of new retail stepping in.
So yeah, I think we're a ways away from that.
And if the cycle plays out how it should with considering the fact that we haven't actually gone into that period of easy financial conditions,
let's call it, yet.
We've had this blow off on the dollar that I posted in the nest since COVID.
We haven't lost a DXY level of 100 for three years.
Very tight financial conditions.
conditions. Inflation is very high. People don't have money. We're just entering the period of
Inflation is very high.
People don't have money.
easing now, which typically lasts at least 150 days, which was almost half a year.
If we get that unfolding, then the cycle should last until 2026, which around there is where you
could see a crazy old season, right? When money is essentially cheap to throw at markets and businesses are doing better, interest rates are lower, things like that.
is like, you know, repeating maybe a four-year elongated cycle
or like, I'm not sure if we've touched on this,
but what if the Trump era is basically more of what Biden gave us,
which is these mini bulls and mini bears in a broader bull market,
which started in Q4 of 2022.
The thing with Biden and Janet Yellen is they were still like, they had QT as the public
front, but in the back end, they were still injecting liquidity.
So on a net sort of
liquidity level, it was still
not actually
quote unquote tightening of
liquidity throughout that period right I think they
drained like I don't know how much
was in the reverse repo an exact number but like
2 trillion 2.6 trillion
drained over maybe I think it was the start
of 23 and then
some of 24 as well especially heading
into the election.
So there was lots of stealth QE, right?
Even though their public front was that they're doing QT,
which QT was basically just the treasuries and mortgage-backed security runoffs.
So I don't know.
They've got these pockets of injecting stuff.
So it just depends.
Trump and Besant have, well, their party has made it clear
that they will intervene into the market
or they have the tools to be able to stabilize the market
if needed, right?
When we had that bond market volatility,
they were talking about SLR exemptions
and all this kind of stuff,
which essentially gives hedge funds
in the banking system infinite leverage to buy treasuries.
We'll just see how this liquidity cycle plays out.
But the only thing is that if you dig really deep into it,
for me, it feels like BTC, because of this new demand,
because of this shift in global trade, potentially leading to more of a bid on neutral hard assets like BTC and gold,
Bitcoin might reprice to the upside over the next five years, let's say.
So it could go through this period of potentially not too much downside
and these short bull and bear periods that you're talking about, Wabi,
because it's simply repricing to the upside.
Obviously, people are going to sell who have been in for a long time,
but the new demand stepping in is in for the next 10, 20, 30 years
with consistent buys.
So if you're going through that, then yeah, I guess you could have these periods of
bull and bear, right? But ultimately, the liquidity cycle is going to also drive this altcoin market
up and down. So I think you'll have stronger periods of that. And then what we went through
during the liquidity hiccup from the DXY rally to 110 of Q4 of last year, where alts like completely rugged.
So being able to see that ahead of time from here,
which was also a learning lesson for me with the altcoin market,
I didn't actually think that would get that brutally smashed,
even though I was expecting a little bit lower.
But yeah, being able to see kind of the forward-looking indicators
and being aware of where we're at in terms of
liquidity and stuff is going to be pretty critical
to identifying that
these bulls and bears that you're talking about
stop and go sort of
market momentum.
I don't know if all of that made sense.
Yeah.
Now my since but yeah yeah yeah um now now like my my question is is in regards to the stock market
what's going to be the next darling baby 21 and 2020 it was tesla 23 was nvidia and 24
um it was mstr now what's going to be the stock market's baby and now if
we're having this discussion of you know they're going to turn on the liquidity tap in the next
couple of months um it would have to be like tradfi's version of moonshot which i think is hood
which I think is hood.
I really think it's hood.
I think the gap between hood and MSTR is going to be closed.
What's the difference between MSTR and hood?
Nobody can actually say what micro strategy even does it's just
it kind of like a ghost company where some guy just dilutes his own company stock to buy more
btc which he's never gonna sell so what's what's the point like what's the actual point if you're
not gonna move it if you're not gonna sell it like what's the actual point? If you're not going to move it, if you're not going to sell it,
like, what's the point outside of getting some fake clout?
Like, there's no purpose, right?
At some point, a man departs with his bags in financial markets.
So why can't Hood, right?
Why can't Vlad, who's the founder and CEO of Hood, do the same thing that Michael Saylor did?
I don't really see a difference, man.
What are your thoughts on that?
Do you think, like, TradFi companies are going to start buying more BTC?
I think that's a narrative that we have to watch out for, right?
Like, Tesla buying more BTC would be extremely bullish right he only bought
that one batch in january of 21 and tesla just hasn't done it at all i think it'd be obscenely
bullish if like x buys uh like if twitter buys some btc right like if elon adds it to twitter's
balance sheet that would oh my, that would be so huge.
Along with the Doge.
It depends where on the chart.
If we're at deep price discovery
and you start seeing all these companies
publicly come out and say they're buying BTC,
it's probably a massive top.
If they started doing it now
from the lows, then yeah, it's going to
drive a euphoric
rally to new highs.
We just had like an accumulation set up.
But imagine like the Bitcoin chart forming a range at like 150K and you're deviating
the high of 150K and each deviation it's like Tesla has just stepped in and bought BTC.
It's just like that's driving retail to buy the highs to fill shorts.
You'd think they'd buy low, but they almost never do.
I think Tesla bought their BTC at like 30k, man, when we were in price discovery last cycle.
every last cycle.
But,
I think it was a great stream.
I think we can wrap it up here, man.
Yeah, I don't think the other guys are coming through.
But, it's all good, man.
I'm sure tomorrow's stream is going to be,
it's going to be a nice one.
Especially with it being FOMCc should have interesting price action so man donnie i want to thank you uh for coming
on up here man it was um kind of a solo stream just just me and you man um and then gorillas
versus 100 tried fibros yeah i, after something like yesterday, right,
it's really hard to follow up on something like that.
But, yeah, thanks, man.
Thanks for coming through, man.
These streams are always great to do.
So, guys, that's it for today's stream.
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