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Market Talk- IS THE BOTTOM IN?! 69k WAS THE LOW?! UP ONLY SOON?!
Recorded: March 19, 2026 Duration: 2:19:43Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. so
Thank you. You break your back! Oh Music I did through it, what I do because In the world that plays, you'll make a whistle to the other
Cry yourself beyond a singer, so you carry on
All you care, all you care
All you care, I'm wasting right on oh Oh I'm going to go.んんん
んん I'm sorry. Thank you. so
Oh Oh yes music so
yo what's going on guys good afternoon good afternoon happy thursday or happy friday wherever you are welcome back to market talk brought to you by bb i hope you're all
doing fantastic incredible volatility once again in the market specifically in the equity markets
man i'll tell you the equity markets have been um incredible honestly after uh, we had the S&P and the Dow Jones launching perps on Hyperliquid.
And select names are doing tremendous.
One of my favorites, SanDisk.
Been talking about this one for months and months and months and months.
And hitting new all-time highs today.
And it's gapping towards that uh that upper price
level talking about that 800 plus level um amd also having a nice day and um one of matt's picks
for energy uh is has been doing well over the last few days haven't really been keeping up with it
at all because it hasn't really done much year to date until until this
week and that's been um solaris solaris is up like 30 percent over the last week which is
tremendous also uh nibius is uh having a great day today as well so it's a great day for for a few
select names um in tech while the indices are just bleeding towards range lows.
Actually, no, the S&P 500 actually broke its range today.
Qs as well also made new lows, new year-to-date lows today.
But again, it's kind of something that we've been talking about on the show recently is
you could have majors not only in crypto but also in indices bleed down while you have a select names
continue to do well or even hold up um it's a really strange market it's like a stock pickers
market and um as far as crypto is concerned with majors there's truly nothing going on it is a
flat day um one percent two percent pullbacks on majors hyperliquid has pulled back about 10
percent uh from actually no six percent excuse me from yesterday's. First pullback it's actually had since this insane run from like 22, 23 bucks.
And that's really expected.
These healthy pullbacks are necessary for continuation, perhaps even some accumulation.
I would love it if hype can consolidate anywhere from like 32 to 40 bucks.
like $32 to $40.
That would be tremendous.
That would be tremendous.
And as far as on-chain goes, there's practically nothing going on.
Most of the action is happening right now in the equity markets.
And yesterday was FOMC, right?
And if history is any indication, there's usually no massive trending move that unfolds until
a week or two after.
And then that's essentially your trend for a while.
So we've got one more FOMC meeting with Powell until he rides off into the sunset and Warsh
comes in.
I have AI guy here on the show.
I really don't have much to say on the market outside of what I'm saying right now. So it's not really much, really. It's kind of same thing that we saw yesterday.
from range highs, tried to blast through 100 and just got immediately rejected.
I think oil, for the most part, is done.
I think it topped out right after Hyperliquid.
Price oracles blasted to like 110 and change.
And in equities, it only gapped up to just over 100 or just below 100.
I think that was last Monday.
And then we have a little bit of a retest today.
Rejected off of it.
And I think that's it for oil, honestly.
If anything, energy could be a nice rotation here.
I know Evan's been waiting on energy for a minute to just go absolutely parabolic.
Axelie is having a nice day today as well, hitting new year-to-date highs.
It's actually up 30-plus percent year-to-date.
So energy is probably going to continue really
um it's so odd like being in crypto you'd expect this kind of volatility um to come in but
because of things like hyperliquid coming out and get and giving these products a lot of the
volatility is just going on over to equity markets if no one's buying all
coins if you continue to see Ethan soul just crab around and slowly make new
rise quarter after quarter or every other quarter um people are just gonna speculate in other asset
classes and the platform to do that right now if you're in crypto it's probably hyper liquid
honestly all the other platforms um don't really have that much volume but anyways i'm gonna pass
it on over to the other speakers guys spaces are recorded as usual so we're gonna go ahead and
get rolling but before that guys before that if you can do me the smallest favor does not take
much time doesn't take much effort at all guys you guys can go ahead and show some love to the space, show some love to the show,
the best way to do that, guys, is by clicking the spaces tab.
Once you guys do that, right above our profile pictures, right up on the nest,
you'll see a link that says x.com slash i slash spaces,
followed by a bunch of numbers and letters.
If you guys can go ahead, hit the like button, hit the retweet button.
That way we can get more people here.
The show can be more brought out into the algorithm.
And who knows, maybe your favorite people here on this app can show up.
I'll send them an invite to speak.
Or you can talk some shop.
I always love talking to new people here on these spaces get some alpha
from everyone from people that i haven't heard of um and yeah we're gonna go ahead and uh get
rolling it's still a stock pickers market um but this breakout from solaris is honestly
incredible man i'll tell you this thing was basically in a multi-month range since late
october and just had like one of the strongest breakouts i've ever seen um something that
we've really only seen on a sandisk and i'll tell you speaking of sandisk um it's probably one of the quietest routes that i have seen um on my timeline at least
i don't really see sandisk on my timeline much all but um when we talk about ai and memory i think
i think it's going to be huge. And this is a high cap.
This is a company that's trading at a market cap of well over $100 billion at this point.
We've been talking about this name since late October, early November here on this show.
and it's been tremendous.
And it's been tremendous.
We had that sell at range highs at the start of the month
and got back in when it broke through 600 and here we are.
Over the last five days, this thing is up 25%.
When you look at crypto and you look at anything at all
outside of Bitcoin, over the last seven days,
there isn't much at all that's up that amount.
Not even Tau, which trades like 80% lower in market cap than Sandisk.
It's incredible, honestly, the volatility that we see in the equity markets
to both the upside and the downside but um anyways let's get some thoughts from ai guy
ai guy what's going on man how are you welcome back to the show man yo can you hear me
yeah loud and clear i know spaces have been uh have been kind of stupid um over the
last few days at least um at least on my end man yeah yeah it's always buggy uh you mentioned uh
solaris i'm not an expert on that but you know i i do uh what i've read from uh
clive you know doing some some some quick google and uh you know it's a data center point
now energy data centers like these thematics are crushing it uh and i expect i mean it's not just
me it's you know reading reports in the sector this market is growing 80 a year so if you could find uh you
know a market that's growing you know like like that right and you could find individual companies
uh that are going to outperform you know that that's like like you said it's a stock picker's
market uh you know a couple years ago when Bitcoin was on its move up from the 15 to 40K range, people were starting to get bullish on Bitcoin.
So they looked at the Bitcoin equities like CleanSpark, MSTR, Coinbase and others.
know coinbase and others right like they're they're looking for those uh you know those
those proxies to get some uh you know leverage leverage bitcoin exposure and the same thing's
happening here where instead of bitcoin right and i'm using bitcoin as an example because
you have a crypto audience uh you know the the major thematic is ai right no one no one actually you know finds a data center
sexy right a data center is not as sexy as crypto was in its prime or bitcoin right but it's it's
it's a uh it's just a market segment that has operational leverage, right? And fundamentally, similar to Bitcoin mining, right?
You know, Bitcoin doesn't work if most of the miners don't make money, right?
And public equities are just one way to capitalize, right?
On that operational leverage exposure.
on that uh you know operational leverage exposure uh so yeah uh i you know i'm seeing my competition
uh print money and and and i'm getting a lot of uh you know hate mail and and comments making fun of
me which makes me happy right like i i like to see this uh pushback right i like to see the bears troll on me because i get a double i get a double
back-to-back bull market right most of these other crypto dudes uh you know are back you know at their
day job stocking shelves at walmart right like i'm here i got the crypto bull market. I got the Bitcoin bull market. Now I got this AI bull market, right?
I'm printing across multiple different themes.
Not as much as I was last year, but I'm still in the game, right?
Like the same energy I'm getting from 2023, I'm getting today, right?
When I was bullish on CleanSpark at $2 before it ran at $24, right?
I was beefing with the Mara pigs, right?
Who were saying, you know, Mara is the best Bitcoin miner,
the best Bitcoin equity on the market.
You'd be stupid to buy anything else right and and it's the same
pretentious attitude that i'm seeing today in the newbie's crowd right their chart looks good
right like i'm i'm more of a fundamentals guy and the iron chart doesn't look as good it looks like dog shit compared to
the nevious chart and I don't put too much weight on that right because that's not how
I made my money I made my money by you know betting big on companies that are that are
winners right there especially in, you know,
when we're talking about operational leverage, right?
Like who are the builders?
Who are going to be the players
that actually can monetize this power, right?
And when I look at the Nebius team,
like, you know, everyone talks about software, right?
I'm not a software guy, right? i i've made my money in infrastructure and iron these are the infrastructure
guys like these are the the one they became the best publicly traded bitcoin miner because
they nailed operations right uh you know and and when i I bet a lot of money on them,
at the time, I looked like an idiot, right?
They were peanuts, right?
They were smaller than BitFarms just a few years ago.
And look at the comparison between iron and BitFarms today, right?
Iron mogged BitFarms.
And I suspect a year or two
from today, it might
not take as long, right?
Where
the Nebius bulls are
bragging
because they got this huge
you know, multi-billion
dollar backlog, right? They got
all these orders in
you know, Meta, Microsoft, whatever,
but they're going to under deliver. They're not going to be able to deliver the data centers.
They're not a data center construction company, right? They're over promising, right? And they're
putting out these headlines to pump their stock so they can raise money. And they're just going
to under deliver on
the data center i don't care if the number one ceo in the world invests two billion dollars in
your company that doesn't mean much right like of course a company that is going to be forecasted
to spend 200 billion dollars on on gpus from n, you know, Jensen is going to want to support that company,
right? It's not that serious, right? So when I see these noobs on Twitter pound their chest
and, you know, have no real fundamental reason outside of, hey, you know, they're good at
building software. That means that they're good at building software that means that their data
center construction experts I I'm gonna call their bluff right and I'm doubling down on a team that
I trust right that have that I've made a ton of money investing in since you know the in the single
dollar digits and their position're positioned, right?
I mean, they've got four and a half gigawatts of power.
And the news that they broke,
it wasn't really like a big press release,
but in one of their presentations,
and I pinned this on the nest,
the chief commercial officer, Kent,
you know, hinted that they're, you know, they're building for the Verirubin a liquid, you know, the liquid cooled GPU from NVIDIA, right?
Like, and that's most likely going to be built at, you know, their new campus suite water that's being energized uh this but next month in april but also the you
know there's an opportunity to build that at childress and their texas sites right like at
some point uh those are those are the next announcements that i'm looking forward to
and uh the the bear case coming from the nubius bulls are, hey, you know, Iron's infrastructure is only built for Bitcoin mining.
No, it's not. Right. This is a team that had a vision seven years ago.
This didn't start just because of ChatGPT. Right. That was an opportunity in 2023.
But, you know, their whole vision from the beginning was we're going to build data centers.
We're going to monetize these data centers and develop and scale them via Bitcoin mining.
And for the right vertical, we can, you know, we could use that to build a platform.
And that's exactly what they did.
Bitcoin mining was that cash cow right and now they're
phasing that out and moving to something that pays them more margin which is ai hpc so uh you know
they're being priced at a bitcoin miner uh valuation and if you look at all the comps, some of the more
established players, they're trading at eight times
sales. And I don't think the valuation makes sense
for where this company is going. And I think by next
earnings, you're going to start seeing some scale.
And as that gets priced
in we could start seeing a two three x easily this year
on nibius you're saying sorry nibius no on gotcha, gotcha. How about Nibius?
I'm generally like, I think what Nibius is doing is it's showing that, yes, it's just another data point that, yes, AI demand is there.
The compute demand is insatiable. But what I'm not sold is, you know, on their ambitious to to build and develop five gigawatts
of ai data centers by 2030 i just don't think that's realistic for for nebius if iron said it
that's a different thing because these are these guys are you know a vertically inter integrated
uh infrastructure uh you know team like that's what they that's what they've been doing their whole careers
before they got into Bitcoin mining, before they got into
iron as a company.
So I'm sitting tight.
I'm still bullish on iron. I'm still bullish on
AI. I'm still bullish on iron. I'm still bullish on AI. I'm seeing just compute prices go up from the older generation, H100s. The older generation GPU models are still going up in value, right? bubble bears have gone quiet. They've moved on to the next subject. So I think it's time to gain
some momentum again. And that's why I'm on Spaces. And I like talking about these names when they're
down on Spaces. And then I start shitposting as the price goes higher uh and then other people start talking
about it on spaces but uh you know this is this is what i like to get active on spaces
i i i like i uh found nebius because of you ai guy you posted that meme and i'm like all right
this thing it's probably good i'm gonna go. Um, and the ticker sounded cool. That's,
that's it, dude.
Well, we called it dubious, right? That you're, you got sold because of the name.
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I don't really do like, I mean,
same thing with iron dude. Um, last summer, uh,
I heard Mike talk about it and then I'm like, oh, that sounds pretty
cool.
And I, and I looked at the chart and it looked like it wanted to break out.
So, and it is what it is, what it is.
That, that, that summer was a really good time.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
It was, it was trading between like 13 to 15. And I'm an altcoin guy.
And whenever alts aren't really doing much at all, whether it's majors or on chain, and Sol have been topped.
I think talking to people that are in equity markets have helped me at least make some good trades.
Even Coca-Cola, that was like a 5% trade.
And Sandisk, of course,
I think I just got lucky on Sandisk, honestly, especially during that second time where it bounced off of like 600.
It broke out of 600, had that retest, and I'm like, damn, it's bouncing.
I think this thing is ready for new all-time highs.
And then it gapped up by like 40%.
Actually, no, excuse me, wow, by like 30-plus percent.
Actually, no, excuse me.
Wow.
By like 30 plus percent.
And, yeah, it's – honestly, that thing is a monster.
If they have a stock split or something, man, that would be great.
Nibia should probably do that too because people just love their numerical bias thing.
love their their numerical bias thing so that's that's what I think is probably
gonna happen at at some point but it is great that you could see the S&P and the
Q's and Bitcoin and ETH and so continue to correct even if now it's gonna be a
time-based correction and you can still have some volatility in the market there's something to do i think that's the one thing that
i'm grateful for um because anyone can just buy and accumulate buy and accumulate but what makes
markets exciting are these momentum trades man um at least that's what i like man i've i've always been a momentum trader evan what are you
saying bro how are you man and uh dude congrats on xle bro it it had a pretty uh it's had a pretty
nice uh week man it's up 30 year to date and um you know when you look at most things man i i
understand like you know 30 isn't really much even sandisk it's up like 200 year
to date i mean it's not much to brag about when you look at what crypto has done in the past but
you know i i there are there have been years in markets where like people have had to sit in cash
and still had to eat some drawdown um but at least in cash during those years, you've only suffered
like a two to three, 4% drawdown and not like 60% because you're in risk assets. And so that's why
I'm grateful we're not in that environment where you're just forced to sit in cash and still eat
some sort of drawdown. It's actually been a market where there are still multiple sectors to play.
Yeah, man.
I mean, you know, I like my oil.
You know, oil's got lubrication, all that good stuff, you know.
XLE, look, I mean, you know, this was going more by, you know, what happened in 2022 a lot.
You know, it shot up.
It was one of the best performers in 2022. You know, even if
you compare, I mean, I got into it mainly based on how it looked compared to S&P 500, how it looked
compared to Bitcoin, how it looked compared to gold, you know, a few more, a few months ago,
in January, I was in gold beforehand. I recently converted all my gold over to Bitcoin.
But I still think XLE is going to
outperform gold, outperform Bitcoin, probably for at least a couple more months here. I mean,
this thing could shoot up to, this thing could ride. I mean, there's periods where this thing
really does very well. I mean, energy, you know, investing in oil itself isn't too attracted to me.
It's just too volatile and weird. You know, that's tougher. But there's areas where XLE,
you know, profitable companies can kind of go up and you're probably not going to get
screwed too bad with XLE. I mean, you look at like, I think we're kind of in a period, maybe,
probably not as good as this period for XLE, but kind of like 2004 with some parallels to the Iraq
invasion. And it generally came up, you know, from 04 to 2008. But, you know, should you hold
it all the way for the next kind of four years or something? Probably not because there's going
to be opportunities to convert to Bitcoin and get a much better return than, you know, your,
I mean, what's it been up since I bought? I got in like, let's see, maybe 45 or something. I mean,
yeah, I'm up about 30%, which is great. That's what I was up on my gold,
about 30% before I converted it over to Bitcoin. I'm holding this for now. I'm looking for momentum changes. I mean, you said it right, Wabi. Momentum, I mean, I know some momentum traders that have
absolutely crushed it over the last two, three years. I'm talking about people that, you know,
turned, you know, got 10X returns or more, you know, big, big,
you know, returns there.
And I think that the momentum here on XLE, and I mean, we talked about Nibius, Iren.
I mean, I looked at Nibius, Nibius has done good, but I mean, it has still hasn't made
a new all-time high against XLE.
That's still kind of been strong.
So yeah, ultimately, I mean, Nibia still has bled against XLE since October.
So XLE would have been the play since October.
Now, I'm not saying that's always going to be the play.
But for the next few months, what I fathom what happens in the next few months is that Bitcoin, you know, retraces, potentially makes a higher low.
You know, we probably finally actually touch our 200 SMA, 200 weekly SMA, which is probably going to be around low to mid 60s by the time we hit it,
you know, within the next couple months here.
And that could be, you know, kind of your double bottom for Bitcoin
and a good place to potentially convert XLE over into Bitcoin,
convert that over into Bitcoin.
That would align with what the betting odds would tell us
would be the kind of end of the Iran conflict,
probably a couple more months,
maybe June. We'll see what ends up happening with that. I mean, I don't know. You know,
it's tough to say. I don't know. I mean, you know, in terms of ETH as well, like,
let's talk about more of the short term kind of on Bitcoin. I mean, I would say you're in more of a
bear situation. I mean, I wouldn't, I have, you know, I wouldn't rule out completely jumping back
up to, you know, 76K or maybe even 80K. But I think, you know, I think you will inevitably make kind of try to make a higher low or a double bottom on that, you know, 60K, 59K low.
It was funny, too, because Citi, they said in a recession, they lowered their framework, their goal for Bitcoin hitting, I don't know, from 140K within the next 12 months, like 110K.
But they said in a recession,
Bitcoin could go back to 58, 59K. I mean, I don't think we're going to go into a recession,
definitely not this year, but that would be kind of my guess, you know, kind of maybe high 50s,
low 60s, kind of a double bottom, you know, situation. I do think it is a little bit more
likely than not that the bottom probably is in. There's a strong case to definitely be made for
it. But next couple of months, I think that your triple Q is going to
keep going lower in all likelihood. Your S&P 500 is going to keep going lower in all likelihood.
You know, Sandisk, you mentioned, you know, that's still in a bull trend. That's a momentum trade.
Yeah, I don't see necessarily a reason to get out of that just yet. Maybe at 860,
something of that nature. I'm not going to say any names, but man, there's somebody who's,
I hope the person's okay that was talking about shorting this like a week ago that's the problem too you
got to really wait till those momentum changes happen to try to do more of a a long-term short
there you know stuff like i would say too like in terms of more ai stuff like kind of like what
bitcoin ai was talking about i mean i think that you know you look at micro strategy versus
palantir and i think that micro strategy is the obvious bet to make compared to Palantir because MicroStrategy has gotten beaten up so much more than that.
I do think Palantir has got a good shot of rolling over here.
You have bearish divergence on your daily.
I think that may come down lower and potentially bottom.
It's hard to say, but maybe around $100 or something.
Something of that nature
especially if bitcoin drops a bit too um you know all those type of things um but yeah i think it's
dca period for bitcoin for ethereum um you could try to chase some of the momentum trades i mean i
would be more the momentum trade that i'm the most comfortable chasing right now is energy just based
on kind of fundamentals um as well i mean you know i don't have a problem with
nibus i'm not i just heard about it like within a week ago i had us you know some of these things
are new to me i'm not like you know in the complete you know i'm not like studying
i was just gonna say real quick but i was just gonna say nibius still has not as bled against
um xle for the past few months but i would be looking at nibius
like in two three months from now that's where i would be good i i think it's gonna go into price
discovery and i don't know the ceo of nibius i don't know their earnings none of that i just
like the name and as far as sandisk goes it's crazy, Evan, because that's like the first level that I was discussing on SanDisk yesterday.
It's like right around the mid-eighths because I think the $1,000 level is very psychological.
And it's been a great asset to trade, honestly, man.
I hope crypto can trade like that man like if the price action
just year to date on sandisk happens on hyperliquid hyperliquid shoots up to like 200 bucks
you have to understand the s p and the dow jones basically stroke a deal with hyperliquid that's
that's the most bullish news that crypto has ever seen next to the etfs so hey i got going man uh you meant you
mentioned mstr earlier one of my dream scenario i don't think this is going to hit at all
uh for mstr but if it does i i would you know buy a decent position in it for the first time
decent position in it for the first time.
I've never owned MSTR.
But if it, if what I expect Iron to do,
you know, there's a three axis to get to 120 this year,
based on its, you know,
growth in AI revenues,
is, you know, I'd like to see the price flip MSTR.
So ideally, like, iron is like 120, right?
And then MSTR is like 120 or slightly under.
But I don't know if MSTR is going to be that low, depends on what Bitcoin does.
But if that happens, like, I think that would be a generational opportunity
to get into MSTR or Bitcoin and trim some iron around that point. Because iron can easily
go down another 30% to 50% from that 120%, right? That normal volatility. Just as a shorter term trim, right?
But longer term, I see this as a longer term hold.
But yeah, I mean, Bitcoin's getting to a point this year.
I mean, end of this year, I wouldn't mind holding or adding some if it stays in this range.
It's a great asset.
And if it stays flat for another two years, it's not a bad deal.
I that's one idea I'm looking for to, you know, get more Bitcoin exposure as IRON de-risks from Bitcoin to AI.
Truth be told, I don't even know the CEO of SanDisk either or IRON.
These names just sound cool.
Matt, congratulations on Solaris, man.
Quite an insane breakout over the
last few trading sessions man um and i'll be honest i did not even look at the chart until today
but it was funny because on monday we were talking about actually no it was on thursday last week
where we were talking about how some of these names sound like 2017 altcoins and they've all broken out nibius sandisk solaris a lot of isses and uh here we are
man how are you hey guys uh yeah doing great um that yeah that's been a lot of fun uh solaris
energy infrastructure it's up 30 31 in in less than a month. Had a massive breakout just this past week.
But it's all the same theme. Whether you're talking Niveus or Iron or Solaris, they're all
profiting and making money off of the AI trade. And whether you're talking earlier about SanDisk and Micron
and selling memory to companies that need to expand
and build out their AI infrastructure,
or Nebius and Iron, the more rack and stack data centers
all around the country, all around
North America, or quite frankly, I think this year it's been everything energy and all the
big and small energy providers that are purposely catering to AI to help them to help fuel that growth. You know, last year, you could throw a
dart at anything AI, and you would make you would have made money. And if you were lucky,
and did your homework in picked well, probably profited a 5x if not better than a 10x. This year, it's clearly energy.
It's clearly energy.
Yes, specific names in AI will still do well,
but this year, it's so clearly throw a dart at the energy chart and it's going to go up.
You can see it with, right now,
you can see it with just the big massive xle etf so the whole sector uh is is uh
more or less captured by the xle etf and year to date the thing is up 33 and we're only three
months into the year and etf up 33 in in just one quarter. That's clear where this year's narrative and this year's trend
is going. And then specific names in energy, I mean, yes, a lot of them have already doubled.
Some of them have even tripled, and we're only in March. So this is, you know, I was saying in January, February,
this looks like the direction. And here we are in late March, and it's so clearly the dominant
narrative. And we've got, it's not going to just end after the Iran conflict starts to get resolved.
It's not going to just end because we hit a summer lull. This is clearly
going to be the narrative for the rest of the year, if not into 2027 plus. But it's fun to see.
It's fun to expand.
They're all trying to build out.
And there used to be a big crunch.
You know, originally it was super hard to get NVIDIA chips and AI GPUs.
That seems to have normalized a bit.
NVIDIA is still crushing it, but that bottleneck has disappeared.
Then last year it was this breakneck race for where can I plug it all in?
I need data centers for this year, next year, and the year after that.
And you're seeing deals right and left getting signed,
you know, three-year, five-year, 10-year deals getting signed for data centers in 2025.
And this year, again, it looks like it's energy.
Not so much a bottleneck, but just like bidding,
trying to outbid your competition
to get access to that energy first.
So yeah, whether you're, I like to play it just big, medium, small.
So I'm still holding GE Vernova, which is a massive triple digit billion market cap.
And then I like Bloom Energy, which now is the market cap of MicroStrategy.
It's grown so much and looks like it's on the verge of a breakout as we speak again.
And then Itty Bitty Solaris, which has been crushing it, absolutely crushing it.
But that company, as you said, Wabi, that company is tiny still.
They're only a market cap of $4.5 billion.
So they're technically considered a small cap in the grand scheme of things,
yet they've signed massive – they've signed not one but two massive deals
with XAI and Elon's AI build-out, and they're making moves.
So it's fun. I think think i'm gonna buy this thing
man i'm gonna buy it now now that you tell me that because i know nibius did that deal with
meta so why would i buy solana when i can buy solana at a couple bucks and it's now named
solaris in the equity market.
That's how I'm going to think about it. It is.
You understand like retail thinks like this.
It has the same ticker as.
You need to like be as low IQ and as simple as possible when it comes to these things
because that's how retail buys and that's why retail usually outperforms when they come into this
market you know like retail that came into crypto they probably bought pepe like oh pepe the frog
i'm gonna buy this thing uh oh solana i remember solana and they're gonna buy it sold they bought
so like in the teens or something like that um well i don't know if it's as easy as, oh, it has a catchy name or the ticker,
but I think it's, I think it's, I think it's just,
is it an easy narrative to explain?
And whether you're talking big caps, meeting caps or small caps,
it's a super easy narrative to explain like, look, they're,
they're fueling the energy build out for AI.
And look at the deals they've already signed.
Look at the incredible earnings they keep blowing past expectations.
And for me, I only look at two different types of
assets or equities. I want to see what's bottoming out. And that's Bitcoin. Bitcoin is clearly
bottoming out. So get me all the Bitcoin possible under 70k. I'll buy it all. And then what's
breaking out. And what's breaking out is clearly energy. Everything energy is breaking out. XLE is straight up only. And you just see money going farther out into the medium caps and small caps and looking for like who's crushing it, who's expanding, who's got operational excellence and making moves.
got operational excellence and in making moves. And yeah, I, I agree with you. I think it's,
I mean, Bloom is the, they, they have a lot of attention. They have a lot of eyeballs on
Bloom Energy already, but I think small, I mean, if you're interested in small caps and you want
to see, and you want to take a chance on like, who's next, I think it's 4.5 billion small cap Solaris energy infrastructure.
So, yeah.
Matt, I'm surprised you didn't tell Wabi about Soluna
because it sounds like Soluna.
Again, no.
I don't think it's as easy as a catchy name.
No, absolutely not.
I think it's a terrible strategy.
But that's how he trades, right?
He looks for hot names that
mirror...
The name, the chart
has to also...
The chart has to back up the name.
I got it.
It's so bizarre because obviously, you know, who the hell in the world would have guessed you
know things like pepe things like doge things like shiba you know all this complete nonsense
would have done so well you know i mean imagine telling somebody to this 10 years ago imagine
telling somebody that trump would have came out with two meme coins like i don't know life life
just gets crazier the longer you live man i don't know guys yeah i uh i did see a doomer post saying
how this market has become everything that uh it used to stand up against etfs um governments launching meme coins and basically all this mass extracting
um but it was kind of the same thing uh as uh the ftx blog and all that stuff and i remember when
ftx blew up i was making quote tweets saying these are things that you don't see at tops
um and i do agree with matt like you're starting to see things that you don't see at tops. And I do agree with Matt.
Like, you're starting to see things that are bottomed out,
accumulating and all that stuff.
And, yeah, I'm going to get some Solaris. I think a rotation here is pretty good.
Like, maybe reduce, like, 50% off of SanDisk
and start building a Solaris position
because the only thing that's investable
outside of like ETH and crypto is Hyperliquid and I think that's gonna... Hyperliquid is
either gonna have a certain... Why am I stuttering man? Geez. It's either gonna have a extended
period of consolidation where it's actually to have a huge breakout because of the S&P and Dow Jones perps launching yesterday, which we discussed, but there wasn't really much follow through.
And I mean, if you look at the deals that have been struck in some of these companies in TradFi, they usually gap up quite a bit.
um in trad fi they usually gap up by quite a bit we saw that with nibius and sandisk and a few others
anytime they have a huge deal they usually gap up quite hard and billions pour into it so i think
hyperliquid is kind of in between those two things short term but long term i don't see a reason why
hyperliquid wouldn't have a valuation as big as Ethereum. That's ultimately where I think Hyperliquid ends up.
And I think I'm the biggest Hyperliquid bull in this entire app.
And I look back on the recordings that I've done here on these spaces,
and I think I have hundreds of hours of just giving my Hyperliquid thesis.
hundreds of hours of just giving my hyper liquid thesis um yeah yeah i haven't seen anything like
this since i um saw uniswap launch on eth in 2019 and it all clicked um but anyways oh um
maybe i missed it earlier but did you pull the trigger and take profits on your gold?
Get that into Bitcoin?
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
I did that.
When did I do that?
Like a couple of weeks ago.
Right, that's what I thought.
The timing, right?
The timing, beautiful.
Yeah, and it was just some of the...
I didn't take profits on my XLE, though.
That looks still strong against gold.
Yeah, let your winners ride
yeah yeah but gold i mean the thing is like i was up 30 percent in my gold so even if gold
believe or even if bitcoin bleeds another 30 percent against gold which some people do think
that i think there can be well look there's always going to be a bearish case but i'll be where i
started if if that does happen so i mean i'm a believer in bitcoin i
think we will you know they'll be i mean i i guess you know there's some doomsdayers but
they'll be invalidation points and stuff like that so you always got to have a plan you know
i mean but um actually i don't see a reason to convert to bitcoin at least not yet no yeah yeah
i mean again uh i i wouldn't. Bitcoin's bottoming out.
And actually, and everything energy is breaking out.
You can ride two winners at once.
But as gold, like, boy, that looks like it needs a long consolidation.
That looks pretty cool.
Gold, I think, will consolidate for a couple years.
I think gold is not going to do much until the U.S. goes into a recession,
which I surmise that's going to be three, four years away.
I think gold will probably even bleed against S&P 500 for a couple years.
And there are some real big gold people, gold like, you know,
chartists that do.
I think that guy Northstar even agrees with that.
He said it's possible that we could consolidate for a couple,
a couple of years with gold, at least against S&P 500.
When we are doing, you know, when back in late December, early January,
when everyone was doing their 2026 predictions and I said,
it's going to be a down year for gold, for silver, for a lot of the indexes.
I mean, three months in and that looks spot on.
I don't know how long it's going to take for this asset or that equity to bottom out,
but no one had gold would be negative three, four months into the year.
No one had silver being negative three, four months into the year. No one had silver being negative
three, four months into the year.
That's false.
That's false because I put on a $20 million short
and got yelled at by the internet.
Okay, right.
I did see that, Mike.
You're right.
They're like, oh, you have no one.
No, I just went short.
It wasn't even really against Bitcoin.
I just knew silver when the SLV was trading
between 100 and 110 that it was probably going to go back to 60. I'm on the record. went short it wasn't even really against bitcoin i just knew silver when the slv was trading between
100 and 110 that it was probably gonna go back to 60 i'm on the record there's spaces recorded
spaces where i talk specifically in fact the night before silver crashed 30 on a friday that thursday
was the longest space where i was talking about it but the point is is like people will attack you
when you're right uh people will get so angry when you're right. And it doesn't matter whether you're long or short or what the asset is, you will find religious acolytes in every asset who are unable to see clearly about when an asset's overheated.
you know, overheated. You know, like I love Bitcoin. I've always loved Bitcoin. I've been
bullish on Bitcoin for almost a decade now. But way back in fall of 2024, Matt was there.
I was correctly warning people that MSTR had gotten overheated. Now, I didn't say MSTR is
going to zero. I'm not an idiot like some of these people in these spaces are like,
Saylor's going to get liquidated. You know, like we just got to wait till Saylor gets,
like I'm not one of those guys.
I was just looking at the price relative to where Bitcoin
and sort of the broader crypto cycle was.
And I knew it had run too far, right?
It's sort of like if you're playing golf and like your body or your hands
get too far away from the center line and they don't come back, right?
You're not going to hit the ball the direction that you want.
And MSTR was signaling too much exuberance.
So you either needed a huge follow-through,
or you needed Bitcoin to run from 90-something thousand.
You remember MSTR bottomed when Bitcoin hadn't even broken 100K yet, right?
Topped, sorry.
MSTR topped inmber a couple weeks before because because bitcoin
didn't cross 100k to the upside until early december uh 2024 but but mstr had already
topped one or two weeks before that about two weeks before that uh and so it's just really
interesting right like uh you look at the beginning of this year this year uh and people are like gold
and silver are going to go up forever and silver was an easy short because silver
doesn't even have the same fundamental thesis as gold does right it doesn't
have the same hardness and there's a lot more narrative in that but all we've
seen now is just a rotation like people are rotating out of Microsoft and some
of these big cap techs and they rotated initially into a whole basket of
companies that were not doing so well the last three, four, five years. That's inclusive of
the energy complex that Matt's super bullish on, and I'm certainly not bearish on energy.
I'm pretty much bullish on the continued dispersion and the continued rotation.
If you really study what's happening under the surface, there's so much money and there's so much liquidity and it's just moving around.
And so if you just look at one ticker or one index, it's really hard to see that. You have to
kind of go name by name, sector by sector. You got to jump geographies. You got to jump sizes.
You got to jump industries. You got to jump industries.
You got to jump commodities in order to see it.
But all you're seeing for the first time in years is like not a mono market where all the money goes into like one idea, which is basically like the last three years.
All the money goes into the biggest companies exposed to AI.
In the venture markets, the same thing.
Like if you don't, if you're not an AI company, you can't raise money.
But if you're a dumb AI company, you can't raise money. But if you're a dumb AI company, you can.
That's just the way it's been for the last few years.
And now, finally, we're getting a healthy market.
I'd say over the last three to six months,
as those rotations started at the end of Q4 into this year,
now we're finally getting that.
And so I just don't see anything that looks unusual to me.
What I'm seeing is just a normal set of rotations that you'd see in a healthy market. And what we
had before was a less healthy market where the S&P just marched up every day, but it was such a
small group of companies that were really benefiting from that, that it really wasn't that
healthy. It wasn't indicative of a broader healthy healthy economy and the rotations in the action I'm seeing now
is more indicative of that.
And so everything's at a different timeline, right?
So if you draw like an oscillating line for Bitcoin
and then one for Ethereum and the rest of crypto
and then you draw one for interest rates
or you draw one for the bond market
or you draw, obviously there are different bond markets and then you draw one for interest rates, or you draw one for the bond market, or you draw, and obviously there are different bond markets,
and then you draw one for various sectors like energy, et cetera,
you'll see that some things have went too far and corrected.
So some of the small-cap growth companies, things like Carvana,
and then some smaller and mid-sized companies that got bigger,
like Robinhood and Palantir, those uh were really hot at one point last year and then they cooled off right you go back to
2024 mstr was really hot and then it cooled off um at the time it was cooling off the bitcoin miners
were were not so hot and then they got really hot in 2025 as long as they made the transition to
ai right and then early this year silver looked like it was going to transition to AI, right? And then early this year, silver looked like it was
going to go to infinity. And right when people were most confident it was going to go up forever,
it turned over and basically dropped almost 50%. And so we're seeing that happening again. The
people will be piling into energy stocks here soon. And right when the average person in this
space who didn't care at all about energy stocks, they't own chenier 10 years ago they didn't have exposure to xle uh longer than three months ago right they didn't
care about natural gas stocks when they bottomed uh in february of 2020 just going into the pandemic
by the way the natural gas stocks ripped out of there look at antero range resources eqt those
stocks some of those stocks are up 20 30x or more ar was like 60 cents now it's 40 42
and it did that in five six years but in order to buy that then you had to buy something that
nobody wanted and so what what tends to happen in these spaces in addition to everybody having a
really short attention span and not actually being able to follow any of these threads long enough
three four five six seven years that it takes to actually make a lot of money across a full cycle. Like there there's people are just not
interested in things when they're actually cheap, right? They're only interested in them when
they're moving, which is largely a momentum oriented strategy, not a value oriented strategy.
And I think that's fine. Like if, if you just want to be a momentum trader, like there's some
people who do pretty well with that.
But the people who make the most money are people that take very large, concentrated positions when assets get very cheap.
For example, like natural gas in Q1 of 2020.
And if you look at the market now, there's a lot of things that people like.
There are a lot of things that people liked three to six months ago that have now turned
over.
And then there are a few things that people hate.
I would call out, you know, pretty much anything in Staples, which had a little rally coming
into this year, but has already sort of cooled off.
That sector still, like I was looking at Constellation Brands again today, it's trading at 12 times uh earnings and historically it's traded 18 to 20 um and their business is definitely
bottom so like that's probably a stock that will do quite well over the next five or ten years
because you're buying it at such a good uh a good price i think bitcoin and ethereum are probably
in that value territory because they're largely unliked and most people who follow it
think they're going to go lower. And then there are a few other things, right? There are other
areas of the economy that are out of favor now, but will probably come back into favor in the next
two, three years. So that's kind of how I see it. I don't see any reason to over-rotate or over-react
here. And I do think all the geopolitics is basically, it's largely noise.
There may be some implications for energy, right?
There may be some implications for fertilizers.
There may be some implications for defense stocks, et cetera.
But those are largely short-term in orientation.
They don't really change the longer- term delta between valuation today and where things
are likely to be two to three years from now. And to some degree, to the extent in which they
accelerate increases in the valuation, like by the time the narrative is really heated,
for example, on defense or energy, like if you buy it there, your returns are going to be worse.
Right. I mean, I just remember for basically five to seven years, nobody wanted to buy energy
stocks.
There was a point where energy had fallen below 3% of the S&P.
And there was a timeframe where there was like no professional energy investors left
because they had all been destroyed.
And that was after basically, you know, a six to seven year like deep bear market that
started in basically, I think,
2014 for energy and sort of bottomed in 2020, but never really even got going until now.
So it's possible energy has a long way to go. But I would remind people that as recently as
five, six years ago, you could have bought some of these natural gas stocks for one or two dollars,
and now they're 40. And people love them at 40. And they didn't want to talk about it at one or two dollars and now they're 40 and people love them at 40 and they didn't want to talk about it at one or two dollars i remember that one other area that i'd call out is the
treasury company market if you think bitcoin or ethereum or any of these things are going to do
well over the next five years then you you want to buy the kind of levered exposure on the equity
side to those things when they're out of favor, right? So you didn't want to be buying
MetaPlanet in Q1, Q2 of last year. You didn't want to be buying MSTR in Q4 of 24. But you
certainly, if you like that space, you probably want to be buying Strive, right? In Q1 of 26,
when people are saying, oh, there's a reverse split and it's going to zero and it's a disaster
and it's another Nakamoto and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
No, it's just a simple equity play on an asset class that's out of favor.
So equities get quite compressed when they're out of favor.
And then when they come back into favor again, the equities sort of release the other direction.
And it's very clear that what Saylor and Strive and others are doing with these preferred
securities is starting to gain momentum because there's so many people who need higher yields.
You think about all the retirees and new retirees and soon-to-be retirees in the U.S.
who don't have enough in their 401k plan if their yield is 3% or 4%, which would be kind of a
standard, decent, to high equity uh dividend
yield three to five percent somewhere in that range like that that would include staples and
health care and if you want to go a little higher you can use energy mlps and get to six seven eight
nine uh but but strc and sata give you 12 uh 11 and a half to 12 and a half or even 12 uh and three
quarters at this at this moment, will they stay there forever?
Probably not, because the cost of capital for those companies will come down if Bitcoin
goes up.
But if Bitcoin goes up, then your yield on cost will probably remain pretty high if you
enter at these prices and they're able to keep the par value, they're able to keep the
trading value right near 100, which is near par value. So I just, I would hesitate to be too bearish on things that have already sort of bottomed
from a sentiment standpoint.
I mean, it's possible sentiment gets worse, but I can't imagine people hating Bitcoin
and Ethereum more than they've been hated over the last few months.
And a lot of the readings that some of the technical folks point to are showing like more
severe hate for the asset class than even during the FTX period, which is kind of wild to me,
because nothing's really happened this time around. Like it's, I feel like it's a little
bit of PTSD where people are expecting something to rhyme exactly with a previous cycle when the
structure of the cycle itself
is actually probably no longer intact because you didn't have any of the same factors and you
didn't have any of the same market structure the last couple times. So expecting like a very early
stage brittle market to behave like a much more institutionalized market is probably wrong. But
again, because I'm looking out two, three, four years, I'm just
trying to buy exposure to those things that is the highest leverage to the next move. And of course,
it's just like the Bitcoin mining stocks, the ones that transition to AI. If you were buying them in
early 2023, you're going to get a lot of puzzled looks from even people in Bitcoin because they
were like, that doesn't seem like it's going to work. But of course, that was actually the time
if you were buying them there, if you held
them for three years where you generated the maximum return.
Because the biggest return for those names was actually in 2023.
People forget this now, but Iron Cipher, Marathon, Riot, they were all up between like 400 and
700 percent that year because they went from so hated that they were never going to go
up to just not going
to die. And that move from so hated it'll never go up to I'm not going to die is usually the
biggest move of the cycle on a percentage basis. And it sort of resets the cycle at a higher level.
And even if you get higher returns the following years, if you didn't buy in those sort of hated
and probably going to die phase, you'll never get the returns of somebody who's in at that level.
So I'll shut up now, but those are some of my thoughts on this market.
Well, I agree with you that, I mean,
I was very publicly skeptical of that transition in 2024.
But you could have, but, you know,
if you paid attention and gave them the benefit of, okay, not one, not two, but three earnings in a row and watched their thesis play out and their operational excellence.
By winter 2024, early 2025, you could still be buying.
You could have still bought iron in the single digits as low as $6, $5 during the tariff capitulation and a lot of other
quality AI stocks too.
So yeah, that period of hated, no one's interested, that lasted for two, three years for all
those stocks.
So yeah. years for all those stocks. So, um, yeah, I would, I would, I, I remember your views and you were
there like in December of 22. So you're one of the only people that I can say definitively was
there for this whole cycle. And you, you were largely bullish, um, on the sector when other
people didn't like it. Um, but, but I would say there were multiple periods of heat on the sector when other people didn't like it um but but i would say there were multiple
periods of heat on the sector in a broader period where a lot of people just still weren't interested
so for example there was a very big run-up starting around the time that blackrock said
they were going to file for an etf uh in the spring early summer uh i think it was may june
time frame of 2023 and then mid-july it was like
vertical some of the stocks were up 150 200 percent in like a month or two and then they cooled off
all the way into the fall and then they went vertical again in the first two weeks of december
2023 then 2024 is actually a pretty rough year for the whole sector there wasn't there wasn't
much to to write home about because the Bitcoin treasury movement,
particularly MSDR,
was sucking a lot of the energy out of the space.
Then in 2025, you had this, again,
as you correctly pointed out,
like a pretty large drawdown,
seemingly late in the cycle.
And it took Cypher, for example,
from like five, six at the beginning of the year
to $1.86 was the low.
I think it was April 6th, April 7th of last year,
and Iron went all the way down to just over $5 from like 10 to 12
at the beginning of the year.
And then they rocketed out of that sort of highly compressed state
in like a slingshot move, and they both went up well over 10x you know
cipher went over 24 between 24 and 25 and iron went to 75 during the regular trading session but
80 78 79 80 in the pre-market so those are pretty substantial moves out of a slingshot and to your
point like yes that was very late time wise right because a lot of people if you'd own those stocks
from really 2023 you wouldn't have thought that you would have those types of down moves that
late unless it was already the bear market some sort of broader bear market but it wasn't it would
just look like the beginning of a bear market and then it turned into you know a large move I would
say now I'm just not sure that this cycle is like any other cycle, if you can even call it a cycle at all, because it still doesn't feel like we've had a crypto bull market at all.
But when I think about the data center space specifically, it's hard for me to understand why people would be so bullish on SanDisk and Micron and Western Digital and then the energy providers and then the GE Vernovas and things like that, why you would be bullish on those and then somehow not be bullish on data centers?
Because if the data center business is not going to do well,
then there's no reason for the amount of memory that's being sold right now.
And I'm not sure how other people are characterizing this,
but I would characterize the chip market as still extremely tight.
I'm in the market, right?
I see, like, acquisitions, large-scale acquisitions of chips, and it's hard to get them, and it's hard the big hyperscalers are developing their own efforts,
and there are changes in the chip architecture
that could threaten NVIDIA's perceived moat.
But overall, the industry is super tight.
The demand is super high.
I just had lunch with Tyler Page on St. Patrick's Day.
What day is it today?
Thursday. It was two days ago uh in new york and
midtown um him and george from bit fury who was the guy originally incubated cypher and hunt eight
uh and then drew armstrong who ran cathedral for years and now works for tyler uh and when you talk
to tyler i mean his view and i kind of share this is that the the demand like nothing has changed
it's actually still accelerating
forward. And what's happening though, is there's a little bit of a dip in sort of expectations and
sentiment because you sign these large contracts. There are 10 year contracts with renewals,
but then you have to build the data center. And during the time where you're building the data
center, of course, you've got Michael Burry and Jim Chanos
and people on CNBC who have no idea what they're talking about,
saying there's some huge bubble and people need to be uncertain.
And so the way he characterizes,
like institutional investors are largely negative
for no particular reason.
Like they can't point to any reason why they're negative
other than just there's nothing else to talk about.
So they're skewing negative.
And Tyler looked at me.
He's like, listen, it's just execution.
We do not believe there's going to be any delay.
We don't believe there's going to be any issues.
And once we deliver these data centers, they're going to be highly profitable.
And all of the supply chain components of building a data center like that, all of those
things are ripping in the public market still.
So I just think there's, again, a rotation going on and then a little bit of a lag between
when some of these deals are announced and when they actually go into production and
when they start generating cash flow.
But I think if you are one of the businesses that actually delivers, then the move in SanDisk
and Micron is directly related to the demand for your service.
And if people don't see that and they think that that'll continue in a vacuum,
that those things can go up, but data center developers can't,
I think that's going to end up looking pretty dumb.
I think we've got probably one or two more big pushes,
sort of like we saw in 2025, like for six months or so, where people start to
understand what this really means. That could happen the back half of this year. It could start
now. It could start in April. I don't know. Who knows, right? Timing any of these things. Matt
knows this. Timing exactly the two-month period or the four-month period where a particular subsector gets super hot is impossible
and this particular subsector when it does get hot the stocks can go up to three x even from
larger valuations they can go up in that in a very short time frame because a lot of it is perception
it's not reality right reality is just the demand is high good data center developers don't see any
end to their demand and they have a lot more people
who want to sign more contracts and get more capacity. But the gap between when those things
are announced and when they go into production is still long enough that it gives people who are
largely ADD time to get negative or get bearish or allow some headline from some unrelated party
that is not the same, right? Maybe has execution issues or customer issues or whatever,
or something to do with private credit because Blue Owl financed some site in Texas.
It's like, great, that's true.
But also there are some companies that have no business with Blue Owl
who are on track to deliver their data centers this year.
And if they do that, then they're going to hit financial numbers
that imply that they're still pretty decently undervalued relative to where they're going to end up.
David, what's up, man? How have you been?
I've been fine. I don't recognize the world I'm hearing on this basis.
It's fine, man. Feel free give uh your thoughts over the last for not for not for not for nine hundred five ten minutes
what i said what'd you say feel free to give some of your market thoughts for like five or ten okay
you may you may have just ruined the space buddy i. I appreciate you having me up, but if he goes on and on and on...
You're such a fiend of foolishness.
Please feel free to leave.
Feel free to leave.
You just insulted me, so get off the spaces.
These folks are not here.
Just get off the spaces.
You're not needed because your stories are so wrong.
I talked to another speaker when I talked to David. stories are so wrong
uh because you gotta block you gotta you gotta mute that bitcoin annoyance mike came on i said one word and you started insulting me so feel free to leave because
what you're telling people is so dangerous and
wrong it's scary uncle mike you should stay man no no i just i just david david doesn't once he
starts speaking he doesn't actually allow any he just he came because you make up stuff you make
up stuff all the time i don't want to hear it you attacked me one word out of my mouth you started
attacking me so leave you're not welcome anything about you you came up here and attacked me one word out of my mouth you started attacking me so leave you're
not welcome anything about you you came up here and attacked me no no i you said the fact that
i'm here you've got to leave the space is going to go bad so you started with an insult so just
leave you're a clown look what you've already done i haven't called you any name no you you said that
the show is going to go downhill because of me. You said that.
It's going to go way downhill, but that's not it. Okay, so get off.
You're not needed.
You're not needed.
Just go.
You're a clown.
You want to have 150 people in the space, you can stay.
But people don't actually want to listen to you blow views.
So then get the hell off the space.
You're not needed with your fiction.
And you're the dangerous one because you're a professor, not an investor.
You sit here and pontificate the people.
Clown, get off, clown.
Okay, Wabi, I was going to tell you what I see,
but this clown decided he wanted to call this a bad space that I let him on.
He's going to leave, but now he wants to stay.
Mute him or I'm out.
David, look what you've done to the space.
Mute him or I'm out, Wabi.
It's absolutely bad. This is exactly what I told you
You loud into insult me and now this clown cannot do anything but interrupt
It's not a talk show David. You're a clown and you're gonna hurt a lot of people in my opinion
I've made so much money on this cycle by not let you're a clown
Who doesn't even know why you made the money.
You think you made money because you're smart.
Wabi, do you want me to go or are you going to mute him?
I told you.
I won't engage with clowns and losers.
I won't.
Wabi, Wabi, you've got to block him or I'm gone.
I have a lot of alpha in it.
Wabi, Wabi, please hold my hand and love me, Wabi.
How about we give David a turn and then, because Mike spoke,
how about we give David a little bit of a turn, and then Mike can respond?
How does that sound?
He won't allow me to respond, but you can go ahead and he can ruin the story.
All right, well, we'll cap it at five minutes.
We'll cap it at five.
No, David is a fucking idiot, man.
There's not a single thing that he
has ever said that has ever come true, man. If he
comes out, I'm leaving you. If Mike leaves, I'm leaving you.
That's it. Yeah, but come on.
I think everyone deserves
a few minutes.
Well, David left now.
I mean,
I think as long as it's reasonable,
you know, everyone deserves
people. Sometimes people may go on and
on but then evan he's not he evan the guy is here the guy spends his days on spaces to try to promote
a hundred dollar subscription that there's nothing that he has ever said that has ever come true come
on the guy told people to fucking short tesla three years ago yeah he sells a hundred dollar
subscription he has me blocked go on his page
The guy's a fucking idiot man. He's dangerous. He keeps calling. He keeps calling everybody dangerous
He's fucking dangerous. He told people to fucking short Tesla three years ago
He's a fucking moron
Yeah, he was literally saying bitcoins going to zero when it was at 15
He's still telling people bro.'s still he's still telling people
that bitcoin is gonna lose two decimals like come on man i mean he did say it sounded like a clown
for saying that interest that interest rates could go up a little bit higher which they have i but i
think everyone deserves like a little you know we could respond to it you know i mean i don't know
everybody agree everybody deserves
to have their own hedge fund so they can blow themselves up i mean look nobody deserves i think
that nobody deserves nobody deserves anything there are some people who do stuff and some people
who don't and he comes in here and pontificates like he's like this old professor from nyu who's
never actually done anything but he's been teaching students and holding office hours for 30 years. And some of us are in the fucking market every day. I didn't say a word
about him. I'm more than happy to have him come up and give his thoughts without commenting on mine.
But you noticed he could not, he was not capable of doing that because he has to draft off of the
audience. I have an audience that came from making fucking money in the real market over
the last three years.
People bought iron at one, two, three, four, five bucks, and they wrote it to 70.
So they followed me, right?
They bought Cypher at one, two, three bucks, and they wrote it to 24 bucks, right?
They bought Bitcoin at 1,500 or 3,000 or 5,000, and I never turned bearish during that period,
and they're still holding.
So that's what happens when you're a long-term investor and you're correct about some of these mega trends. I don't know what he does
for a living, but it certainly isn't what I do for a living. And I don't appreciate it when people
like that come up here and use the term clown that would be more correctly self-applied by him,
but he's trying to direct it at other people. That's it. Like it's really, it's really simple
stuff. I appreciate you wanting to be friendly to everybody and give everyone a hug and, and love them. But markets are fucking hard.
And there's a lot of soft people in here who think that everybody needs a chance.
Like, no, not everybody needs a chance. The reason why there's a thousand people in here is because
we didn't let David speak. If you let David speak, it's going to go to a hundred. Now,
does having a thousand versus a hundred necessarily matter? Maybe, maybe not.
But all things being equal, if we're going to share our ideas, I'd rather have a group of people
who's actually engaged in the market every day and can give serious thoughts without calling
other people clowns constantly when, in fact, they're the clown. It's just the wild and most
ironic thing to me that the biggest clown in the room is coming up here and calling other people
who actually are market practitioners clowns. But I leave it there we don't need to talk about
the guy he's listening on on invisible mode right now so that he can like collect uh different
things that he can throw at other people later but i i could care less like let's move on and
maybe talk about something meaningful we've got some great guys up here actually know stuff about
markets i'd be curious to hear uh what anth Anthony thinks about the market that we're in right now.
Hey, what's good, Mike?
How are you guys doing?
Why don't you share your view?
Let's just forget about David.
Let's move on.
Share your view on the market.
Yeah, I think it's a really, really exciting time, honestly, in the market.
And a lot of you guys are going to be like, what the hell are you talking about?
But there's so many people that are bearish. There's so many people that are
short right now. There's a lot of money that has actually left the market in the last three months
that's going to eventually have to come roaring back into the market. I just think when there's
so many people in one direction, it's always exciting. That's typically where markets turn.
And we're at that type of point, in my personal opinion, specifically on assets like Bitcoin. I look at a lot of the AI, HPC, data center plays, Mike,
that I've been invested in for many years, like yourself. These companies, it's just like,
the people that are in them now are not selling them. And if you look at the charts on a daily
basis, and you kind of look at that, the weekends are all already gone. So most of these companies are pretty much at bottoms, in my personal opinion, or have already bottomed.
I've also seen some relative strength from companies like Iron and Terrawolf over the last week compared to their peers.
Let's be honest, Terrawolf is the strongest name in the sector.
It's not even close.
And I think it's because they've basically messaged to institutional investors.
The Kentucky deal.
Well, the Kentucky deal, the financing they got done
only happens if the banks diligence it.
And then they, so they realize that it's almost done.
And I think investors have picked up on that.
I think Tara Wolf sort of leaped ahead a little bit.
And you can see it in the relative stream.
And the stock started the year at 11 something
and it's over 15.
It's pretty good.
Yeah, I completely agree. But I've seen also in the trading in the relative stream. And this stock started the year at 11 something and it's over 15. It's pretty good. Yeah, I completely agree.
But I've seen also in the trading
in the last three days of Iron.
And then of course,
you can't talk too much about that one.
But at the end of the day,
I've seen kind of people starting to figure things out.
I wouldn't be surprised.
And of course, nothing here is financial advice.
If we see Iron make a big announcement in Q2
to deal with Sweetwater,
wouldn't be surprised.
In the next couple of weeks,
you hear a big deal for Tara Wolf at Kentucky.
So we're kind of seeing these things come to life.
Wouldn't be surprised if you hear CleanSpark finally get a deal
over the next couple of weeks.
So there's a lot of things going on in my personal opinion
that are extremely bullish for that space.
And I feel like there's no excitement there right now.
Tara Wolf is a good one to look at because it's only like literally 20, 25% off its all-time highs. And the market's in the
condition it's currently in. So that is showing definitely some strength comparative to a lot of
things out there. But I just think it's an exciting time. There's so many people that are bearish,
and this is the times I love to invest. I've made the most money investing during these moments,
not buying things when they're comfortable to buy them, but buying things when no one wants to buy
them. That is literally what I've done. And I just buy and hold things. I typically do long-term
capital gains. I'm not going in and out of the market, find things that I see value in. And I
let the value appreciate with time. I actually did a call actually with the Terrowolf team Thursday,
hopped on there with a guy named Perry, and he was just talking to the executive team.
It was Patrick, Paul, and Nazir were on the call.
And I asked them about some of their sites as well, and they believe they're going to get another 250 megawatts at the New York site by summer, which is the site that FluidStack and Google had done most of their deals with. They did a smaller deal with G42 there as well. But that means, in my opinion, Terawolf probably has another 250 going to Google
FluidStack. It's summertime. So you think about Kentucky, then you got that one and not talking
about the other potential stuff in the pipeline. So I just think Iron and Wolf and Cypher and some
of these companies are just positioned so well right now for the next
two, three years. And I know some of you guys have been here maybe some of the earlier days,
like I was buying Terra Wolf at 60, 70 cents, right? That's when I was initially buying this
company. And I haven't sold a share. Not one share has ever been sold. So that's kind of like,
you know, people who are kind of thinking a little differently about investing, but not
one share has been sold since that initial purchase. But the reality is, I think we're still super early,
super, super early. Looking at the stuff coming out of the NVIDIA conference the last couple of
days and talking about how much they're going to be, their sales revenue and stuff that they're
doing as a company. Guys, they got to plug in these chips. This is probably like the simplest
formula ever. Like, understand, all these chips are in these chips. This is probably like the simplest formula ever.
Understand, all these chips are going to get bought. What happens? You got to plug them in or they're completely useless. This is not a hard thesis. You just can't look at the charts
at a daily basis. That's how you're going to get yourself in trouble. It doesn't matter what
happens over the next 30, 60, 90 days. Let the thesis play out over a three, four, five-year
window, and you're going to make a ton of money, specifically the next three. And at the end of the day, there's just a ton of companies
in my portfolio that I just believe, not a ton, there's probably five, but five companies I believe
are going to do extremely, extremely well. And the thing that we've always talked about is
if you have power, you're probably going to all be somewhat of a winner, but it's really deciphering
who can execute and who could duplicate the model over and over. And we've seen that out of the big three, in my opinion.
You know, Terawolf has definitely laid that foundation with how they finance some of these
deals. Cypher actually took it to the next level with their most recent financing. Then you see
the financing come out for the Terawolf thing the other day with the Kentucky site. And you're
seeing how these companies, once called called Bitcoin miners were never able to get
any financing and the only methodology they ever had was the ATM like they literally couldn't do
anything now they all have all these different abilities because they're in this different
industry so it's exciting it's really really exciting to see and I think I think a lot of
them will win a lot of them will win yeah you crushed you crushed it with Terawolf. I got to give you.
You and my friend Mateo, who bought 10 million shares at like 50 cents during the pipe deal way back in 2023.
I actually got a call from one of the bankers that was working on that.
And I just was too deep already in some of these other names.
You know, there's only so many things you can do at once.
And because I was so concentrated already in Iron and Cypher,
it was hard for me to go further out.
But Terawolf crushed it.
You were right.
One of the things I've noticed since basically Q3, Q4 of 24 is that Terawolf and Cypher have literally been leapfrogging each other
price-wise and market cap-wise back and forth.
Like for various periods of time, Terawolf looks really strong.
You know, for a while there,
they had some big hedge funds in the cap table,
and then some of those guys kind of disappeared in 2025,
and then they came back.
And then at one point at the end of last year,
Cypher was much stronger.
Now TerraWolf is stronger again.
You know, when I was sitting at lunch with Tyler,
like he has nothing but positive things to say about TerraWolf.
And I think from a strategy standpoint terrowolf and cypher are the most similar in this entire sector i mean they
literally have one shared client um but i think their their business model and like the way they're
running the businesses is very similar so if terrowolf is going to have a good year and i think
it is it's setting up to have a really good year, then I imagine Cypher will be right behind.
Iron is wanting to own the GPUs and run the cloud themselves.
Higher capex, but potentially higher reward if it plays out.
As I'm sitting there at lunch with Tyler in New York on Tuesday,
I'm getting updates from, I think, are they in San Jose?
Is that where the NVIDIA conference is? I'm getting updates from I think they're are they in San Jose is that where the Nvidia conferences because that
that I'm getting updates from that
conference from the Iron team
because the Iron team's all there and I don't know if you guys have
seen all the advertisements everywhere but like
Iron's branding is on like the cars
that are driving around it's on the billboard
it's on the trains everything
it's everywhere they really went big
I heard we sponsored something else
pretty big too I can't say because it hasn't happened yet.
You guys are getting the drip of the different things.
But they're going really big.
They're going for global awareness.
I think the vision is to get to $100 billion, $300 billion, $500 billion plus.
When I said that in the board meeting two or three years ago,
it kind of sounded insane.
And now it sort of seems like it should be the right goal.
It's funny how the Overton window moves as you execute on a business model.
But in the meeting with Tyler, triple digits are coming up.
Because realistically, if the demand for AI and the CapEx cycle runs for another three or four
years, why would the valuations of the biggest
new style data center developers that have the biggest customers
and the biggest contract, why would those valuations stop anywhere
near the current level? The only reason why they're paused here is because there's
just a belief gap between where we are now and where we're going to be once more and more of the data
centers start to be delivered and there's cash flow. And because there are some players in the
market who don't have a great track record of delivering on the physical infrastructure,
there's going to be that gap. And Matt remembers this because I called this out way back in Q1 of
23. I said, listen, everybody thinks Marathon is going to be the biggest Bitcoin miner because
they were the biggest Bitcoin miner before and they have the most liquidity in their
stock and they have the highest market cap.
And I said, I think the only thing that's going to matter is can you be operationally
excellent?
Can you actually deliver in the physical world on your commitments and on your vision?
And look at what's happened.
Marathon stock is basically, it's barely up.
You would have done worse.
Yeah, I mean, it's barely up.
And at the time, at the bottom of the cycle, Marathon was like a billion dollar, maybe a little less market cap.
And like Iron was like just over 50 million at the bottom of the cycle.
Now Iron's like 17 billion
and marathon's still three um and that just shows you what happens when you bet on the wrong thing
or you don't develop the right capabilities and the same thing's going to happen in the ai data
center in the cloud space where right now everybody who signs a contract is considered to be equal
because the market doesn't know how to decipher
to use anthony's word to use earlier as a pun they don't know how to decipher the difference
between the people who can sign contracts and the people who can actually deliver the data centers
and then operate them for 10 years with no hiccups and actually deliver the cash flow to the
shareholders if you knew for sure in advance who could do that, those stocks would trade at a totally different valuation than they trade today.
But that would require, just like in 2023, for investors to be smart enough to know that
Marathon and Iron are different companies.
And I'm just telling you, they weren't that smart.
They all traded perfectly together most of the time for most of 2023.
And then at some point, they became decoupled as the performance and strategy differential
started to be priced in over time.
That's going to happen again.
It's going to happen again over the next year or two.
And again, I think the AI cycle, it doesn't really care right now much about the broader macro cycle.
It's just going to continue.
So yes, I agree with Evan.
There will be a recession.
I don't even think it has to be that far out.
It could only be 12 months out or 18 months out.
But it probably won't happen with this much capex. The only thing that's slowing it down right now is sort of narrative. It's like people going on TV and saying, well, we think
there's a bubble and we think it's going to slow down. It's like, well, in order for it to slow
down, people have to stop buying it. They have to stop sourcing materials for chips and buying memory, and they
have to stop buying machinery and equipment for cooling and for the data center construction,
and they got to stop buying land for the data centers, but that's not happening.
So there will be a recession. I just think some people are delusional. They think recessions
have to, like they're watching their watch. No, it has to, it's almost two o'clock in the
afternoon. The recession has to be here. And and it's like that's not what causes a recession
it's not it's not based on the clock like something in the economy has to change and
at least as it relates to ai capex it's still accelerating
yeah i think i think the big difference um you know last year year, the WGMI ETF for Bitcoin miners, Bitcoin
slash AI hybrid miners, WGMI was in the top.
That's the best sounding name for an ETF, man.
Well, it was.
WGMI.
Well, it was in the top 1% of ETFs last year in 2025.
Like you could have thrown a dart at any of those miners last year
and made money
and probably did handsomely well.
I think that's what we were talking about earlier.
That's probably passed.
I think right now,
you named a bunch of them.
Iron Cypher, Terawolf, et cetera.
You could throw HUD in there.
There's others too. We're not gonna list list them all, but like there's, there are a lot of names that are getting left in the dust
that, okay, they had their run up and now they've completely retraced and gave up all of those 25,
2025 gains and even fell through the floor farther. So now this year, it's clearly that the players are separating from the
pretenders. And it's going to get real exciting. You know, we were talking about when does that
permanent shift happen? I think it's this year and into next year, but when the cash flow starts
to go majority AI and minority selling BTC, I think that's when it gets really exciting
for the true contenders.
Because then, okay, it's so clear as day, even on the quarterly earnings.
And everyone can start to do that math and realize like, oh, this is, you know, what
they were saying in 2024 was right.
And what they were shifting to and the steady conversion in 2025 played out.
And now in 2026, they're capitalizing on it and they're not even done.
Here's another deal. Here's a more expansion. Here's their trajectory.
Here's a more expansion. Here's their trajectory.
So I think that's where it gets real exciting for the winners that had stayed the course now for not one, not two, but three plus years into 2027 plus.
And on the flip side, where I see the danger is just like how WGMI, it was the top performing ETF, everyone made money.
I think it's XLE this year where anything energy is making money, whether you actually have a true thesis. Hey Matt, did I rotate from SanDisk to Solaris?
I'm really tempted to do that.
And I understand, like I, but here's the deal.
I let everyone speak, whether you're like super bearish and you
think you're everything's going to zero or like you're super bullish and like plan b from 2021
is is way too like not as bullish like i let everyone talk because it's entertaining man it
puts the asses in the seats but um if anyone has actually been paying attention to the names that
have been shouted out here you're up hundreds of percentages on SanDisk.
You've done well on Micron.
You've done well on Nibius.
You asked, Wabi, I would just put a, how about just a trailing stop loss on SanDisk?
And if you make, I'm sure you're making money.
I'm sure you've got cash flow somewhere.
Put the new money to what you're interested in.
But I'd hate for you, like, you like look sandisk just beat their last earnings by what was their crazy
eps beat 71 yeah it's insane dude it's like right and before that their last their the eps beat
before that was 40 so like i'm not going to tell you like, oh, and here's where you should sell.
I'm not bearish that they're going to miss their next earnings.
I don't have that crystal ball.
But you know what?
You're not going to be sad.
Like, hey, if they start to roll over
and you've got a, I don't know, a 15%
or even a 20% trailing stop loss,
like, you know, whatever you can sleep well at night.
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Um, I'd like to accumulate more hype,
which is why like I'm playing in equities because crypto right now is
basically in accumulation for some assets still in a downtrend for others.
So if I think I,
listen to what Anthony listen to what anthony said earlier yeah
he has been in some long term but he's been in some that's like that's that's long term for me
hood i know hood is going to be here in 10 years but some of these other names like i i don't know
man but do you know how many like negative 50 or 70% corrections that Anthony has written through on some of those names that he listed earlier?
Mike, too.
Me, as well.
If you've got conviction in a company and you want to see it through for two years, five years plus, maybe even ten years, you've got to withstand getting cut in half once or twice or three times
it's going to happen it's guaranteed going to happen so like i'd rather i'd rather build a
new position with new money rather than you know sell your winners and then completely flip flip
into the new like you know yeah i do yeah i do want to mention this because uh matt was saying something about like you know
these companies a lot of them have pulled back a little bit from their highs but if you put it
into perspective um all the companies that transitioned into ai that signed at least a deal
like if you look at where they were trading in april of last year to today like tara wolf april
last year was at two dollars guys it's still still a $16 stock, 1574 close today.
Okay. Just give you perspective. That's a 600% move. Okay. Look at Iron right now. Iron was at
basically $5, 520 April of last year. Okay. If I mark that up, boom, you're talking a 700% move to where it's currently at.
Like, you got to put things in perspective a little bit.
It's still insane.
And then Cypher.
Cypher was literally, guys, at $1.85 April of last year.
And it's currently trading at $1,468 at the close.
That's a 700% move.
So the ones who have made the transition have all fared very, very well in
this market. Even if you look at Core Scientific, not crazy because they were like the first one to
do a deal, but they were still at six bucks. They're at $16, $16.51 it closed. And then Hutt
was literally at $10. It's a $50 share. Okay. Like a $50 stock right now, a share. So like that's,
those are big moves, guys.
Those are big moves.
The ones who didn't fare well, CleanSpark, why?
Hasn't signed a deal yet.
It's basically April lows were $7.
It's currently at $10.
And the reason they didn't sign the deal is because they said they didn't want to do AI all the way.
Correct.
They pushed it.
Yes, correct.
And even the ones who said they wanted to do it, like Riot,
they don't necessarily have the personnel and the team
because you needed to be thinking about it
two, three, four years in advance.
And this is why Iron had such a big advantage
transitioning to AI cloud
is because they were thinking themselves
as just an infrastructure developer since 2018, 2019.
They were mining Bitcoin as a monetization mechanism
for the development of their data centers.
They were not a Bitcoin miner transitioning to something else.
And that mindset is not just a saying, right?
It's like what actually happens.
Finish your thought, Anthony, and then I have another thought.
Yeah, so I'm just looking.
If I name Wolf, Iron, Cipher, Coors, Hut,
they've all signed legitimate deals. Okay. Not
saying I love the counterparty for Coors as much as the counterparties for like Iron, Cipher, or
Wolf, but you know, of course, CoreWeave is their counterparty. If they get another deal, I'd like
that company a lot more. Hut, of course, FluidStack, Google Anthropics. So solid, not huge at this
point. It was like, you know, a smaller deal, you know, comparable to like what Wolf has already
done or Cipher has already done. But the stocks have fared very, you know, a smaller deal, you know, comparable to like what Wolf has already done or Cypher has already done.
But the stocks have fared very, very well, even in this market.
Like I'm just showing you once you start locking in long term revenues where big institutions can understand your business more, which Bitcoin mining is so hard because you could have one incredible year and then three shit years.
It's very possible or two incredible years and then two really shit years.
Once you start locking in revenues that they can see, these stocks have done well. And then if I look down the rest of the list, I'm looking at all Bitcoin miners transitioning,
right? CleanSpark, like I said, pretty much not much has changed since April of last year.
Hive, of course, a very small company. So it's hard to compare that comparative to those, but
not too much, right? It was $1.30,
it's $2. Bitfarm's very, it got all the way down to 70 cents because of the CEO situation,
but it's a $2 stock until these companies like signed some real legitimate deals.
Riot, of course, did that little tiny deal with AMD at this point. It's about a double,
a little more than a double from where it was at the April lows to where it's at today.
And then Mara, right? Mara's double from where it was at the April lows to where it's at today. And then Mara, right?
Mara is literally lower than it was at April of last year.
Okay, the low last year was literally 983.
We got down to a low of 670.
We're currently trading at 922.
So the ones who made the transition, it's fared very, very well for them.
They've done a very, very nice thing
for their businesses. And of course, all of them are eventually going to do it. That's why I said
a lot of these companies, even the ones that I don't think are great, are still probably going
to do all right in the grand scheme of things because all power is going to get taken. But
the ones that can deliver, that's why I put Wolf, Iron, and Cypher in a class of their own.
And then tier two would be Coors and Hutt right now because at least they signed deals
with legitimate revenues, et cetera.
And then CleanSpark's like right there on the list
and then down the rest of the list, right?
Because I think CleanSpark's close to a deal.
But that all being said, that's kind of my concept.
It's wild when you listen to somebody in these spaces
actually just use logic
and just lay it out cleanly with no additional emotion.
You know, it's about making money, right? It really is. It's that simple. Like your goal is
to buy something for a dollar or $3 or $5 and then to sell some of it or all of it at $10 or $20 or
$30. It's not rocket science. But people get super emotional about it. I remember,
it's funny because you called it out, Anthony, you said, oh, Cypher's trading at 186. I remember
that day vividly. It was a nasty day. It didn't feel too dissimilar to some of the days we've
had recently over the last three to four weeks, maybe starting in early February, that big
drawdown day where Bitcoin went all the way down to 59.8 after hours and bounced off that level. And you had a bunch of crypto linked equities that
also had major bounces off the lows of the year. It's another thing I've noticed over the last
three years because there's so many high frequency traders and so many quants now that some of the
biggest moves happen when there's no liquidity after hours hours, like up moves and down moves. Um, so we had like the down move of the year already that felt like April, but it happened
in like a blink of an eye on one day, uh, in the first week of February. Um, but like last April
was similar, right? Like Cipher went to $1.86. There were so many people angry with me because
I've been bullish on Cypher since
39 cents.
They were so angry, right, because they paid five or six when it was $1.86.
And a lot of those people probably capitulated.
And then, of course, over the next six months, it ran up to 24.
So the point is to make money.
Like, if you follow someone else and you don't develop your own conviction, like if you follow
someone like Anthony, for example, like if you follow someone like
Anthony, for example, like you probably aren't going to make money. Uh, you'd probably be better
off just buying index funds, uh, doing your day job, saving as much as you can, uh, every two
weeks in your paycheck and buying something that doesn't require you to think about markets.
Cause if you try to invest in these types of companies, you can make an incredible amount
of money. Uh, you also can, as, as multiple people have pointed out, you can make an incredible amount of money.
You also can, as multiple people have pointed out, you can take a 50% drawdown regularly.
I think if you own those names that have, Terawolf, Iron, and Cypher, like the best performing names for the full cycle, if you consider the cycle bottom to be December of
22-ish timeframe, coming into 23, if you consider the last three years and two months to be a cycle,
those top performing names collectively, I think, have been down 50% or more three times.
So you've had like a Great Depression move or a 2008 style move in these equities three times.
But if you held them from the lows, you know, in iron, you're up 42 X or so, uh, cipher, you're up
for 39 cents to 14. Right. So you could do the math, uh, on that one. Um, it's, it's a little
less than like the 30 plus X, uh, range. And then Tara Wolf was, let's say 40, 50 cents.
Right. So, and it's up similarly. But the price of getting that move
was that you had to close your eyes
and not listen to any of these spaces.
Or if you listen to these spaces,
you listen as entertainment and you don't trade.
Or you follow Ben Cowan and you subscribe to his stuff,
but you never listen to him.
You just use it as a way to understand
how traders are thinking
so you understand why prices are moving.
He's largely describing why prices go down,
but he's not telling you anything fundamentally
about why they're likely to go up.
In order to have captured 20 or 30 or 40x during that window,
you had to understand why you should be willing to hold them
during those drawdowns.
And one of the things I've learned
from holding highly concentrated positions
in small-cap growth equities
is that you can't look at the broader indices or really care what other people who are not investing in your names are thinking.
Because what happens when your names turn positive and the sentiment turns positive is they move so much more than those things.
And that's sort of like direct compensation for your willingness to hold them when they go down more during the
drawdown. So the S&P is down 3% and the IWM is down 7% and your stocks are down 40%.
But then when the IWM finally goes up 10%, you're up 3x, right? So small cap equity investors who
just indexed made 10% and you made the 200%. And that happens routinely. And so during the
drawdowns, certainly if you want to
sell calls or you want to hedge or whatever, whatever you need to do, I prefer just to have
cash flow so you could keep adding during those windows. You have to remind yourself that when it
flips the other way, you're going to get paid fully. And the problem, people say, well, you
could have just waited to buy it in April, right? Like Matt said, and Matt didn't mean that like, that's what you should do, or that's how he did it. But he was said, like, you could have just waited to buy it in April, right? Like Matt said, Matt didn't mean that like, that's what you should do or that's how he did it. But he was said like,
you could have bought Cypher in April of last year. You could have bought iron. The problem is,
is if you weren't interested in them before April, you certainly weren't going to be interested in
them in April because they're stocks you weren't following when they were falling.
Right. And the only people that are going to own those things at those prices are people that are
already committed or have done deep work on them own those things at those prices are people that are already committed
Or have done deep work on them and and it already chosen those prices
But it's hard for me to understand how when cypher was trading at 6 you would have circled 186
Like it's hard for me to understand when iron was trading between 12 and 15
Why what would be the reason for it to go down to five that didn't involve the company failing or something bad happening?
And so I think a lot of this is the mirage right in the desert it's like liquidity in small
cap stocks like you think you could have bought a million shares at a dollar and written it up to
10 but but actually if you tried to go in the market and buy it at a dollar there was so little
liquidity that you would have moved it to two or three yourself and people forget that they think
that it's super easy and that whatever
price that was low earlier, if they had put in a lot of size, they would have made more money.
And I'm here to tell you, no, you probably wouldn't have. And a lot of the price movements
are largely uneconomic and a lot of the trades are people who don't have the same objectives you do.
And of course, none of those prices necessarily reflect the actual value of the company.
The actual value of the company is what the company today would sell for if somebody wanted
to buy all of the shares one time, right?
So like you can imagine if you went to Tyler Page, and I can imagine this because I literally
had this conversation with him, and you went to him, you say, hey, would you sell the company
at $14?
He'd say, are you fucking insane? He wouldn't curse like I would, but he, but he would say,
are you insane? Uh, because his view is that it's going to be worth at some point significantly more
than that. Cause he has line of sight to those outcomes and he's not a chart squiggler or a
trader or a quant or a market maker who's trying to stay balanced today or selling options and
trying to make sure the price doesn't move close, whatever the level is that causes them to lose money, right? So he's
just the guy building the company. He's just looking at what the customers are saying. He's
looking at what his employees are telling him about the development of the data centers. He's
saying there's no way that's the right price. So just because somebody else who has a different
objective than you do would be willing to sell a share today at $14
doesn't mean that that's the value. And the last thing I'd say is something that I heard recently
from Dan Sondheim at D1 Capital Partners. They're like a 20 plus billion dollar hedge fund,
super smart guys. They're in all of these AI, private AI companies and SpaceX, et cetera.
He said something really interesting. He said, when you're investing in private companies, everybody's aligned with you, right? Because
when you're investing like in a seed stage or a series A or series B, every investor is just
trying to get shares. They're trying to source shares that they want the company to sell shares
to them. And there's no, there's no options, right? Nobody's selling options. There's no
market makers. There's no Citadel. There's no Jane Street. There's no Virtu, options right nobody's selling options there's no market makers there's no citadel there's no jane street there's no virtu right there's no high speed quants so every other
investor that's in there with you is all trying to achieve the same thing they want to buy the
stock at a dollar or 50 cents and then they want to go public at 50 right or 100 that's early stage
investing and he said look that is just not the case in public markets most of the trades
That happen in your favorite stocks every day are made by people that have totally different objectives than you
Especially if your objective is to actually make a lot of money doing long-term investing
60 80 percent of the shares traded in a given day are traded by people that literally don't even care what the stock price is tomorrow
they're largely trading based on
arbitrages and things they're trying to do to flatten out their book and things they're trying
to do to make sure the price doesn't go to a certain level before options expiration tomorrow,
right? Like that behavior, you can look at a chart and it's going to tell you the aggregation of
the 60 or 80% of volume every day that has nothing to do with
the fundamentals of the company and and people are looking at that and assuming that means something
and if you believe that then you never would have held iron from a dollar you never would
have held cypher from 39 since you couldn't have because there were so many days between
january 23 and now where the trading and had no connection whatsoever with what was happening in
the business day to day.
And it's a simple concept, but I feel like a lot of people who are not in the businesses every day
or not on boards or not participating directly lose sight of that
because it's very easy when there's nothing else to look at,
to look at somebody's chart with a bunch of squiggles on it
because there's nothing else to inter-quarter between an earnings report for you to look at.
And what I'm saying is, look, when you're in the room and you can see everything,
the trading still makes no sense, right?
There's almost no days where I look at the trading and I go,
oh, yeah, that makes sense relative to what's happened in the business today.
The vast majority of it is actually just noise.
And I don't know how to follow that up, Mike.
That was pretty base.
That's part of the reason why I bought Ironman,
because I remember you started coming on the spaces
when me and Donnie were arguing with the gold bugs
when the S&P was bottoming out at $4,900, if you remember,
on that first Monday of April of last year, when Trump said, now's a good time to buy some stock.
It took me a few months, but it was pretty base. And I think that's why people
largely buy assets if they're individual investors, right?
Discretionary.
They usually like to see the people that have large size in them,
see the voices behind them and all that sort of stuff.
And it's basically why it got me some iron.
I think it was like $13 or $15 when I made that trade.
Evan, what's your case, man?
You were saying how we're probably bottomed here.
And I know Mike was mentioning how there are a lot of chart squigglers that also would say that we're bottomed here.
And you're one of them, man.
You're probably the most consistent chart squiggler, man, that comes up here, bro.
Well, first of all, I just want to reiterate, I'm anti-squiggles.
Like, I only draw straight lines on my charts.
in my charts. Nothing against the people that
Nothing against the people that draw on straight lines.
draw on trade lines. Hold on, hold on. I forgot
Hold on, hold on.
I forgot to say this.
to say this. Uncle Mike, you
haven't said kid analyst one
time for the last
hour, man. I'm shocked.
It's because my wife is so much
younger than me and she's accusing me of
ageism because I often
talk about the generation gap. Humble brag.
When I say kids,
the kids don't drink anymore.
They don't have sex anymore. they don't go to war anymore.
They just sit playing fucking video games all day and not interacting with the world.
And if my wife were listening, she would accuse me of ageism.
So I'm just trying to be a little bit more careful about that.
But go ahead, Evan.
And separately, I just want to say thanks.
If I have to drop off, I've got a buddy.
I just got back from New York, but I got a buddy who's flying in from Texas and I'm putting
him up in one of my places and going to make sure he's very comfortable. So I got to run over there,
get him in there and get him set up in the men's lounge and make sure all the golf pros know him
and everything before, before I leave. Cause I got my, my daughter's birthday tonight. So I got to go get him set up at the club and make sure like the whole staff knows him before I leave because I got my daughter's birthday tonight.
So I got to go get him set up at the club
and make sure the whole staff knows him before I come back.
So I may have to drop off in a second, but go ahead, Evan.
Yeah, so I mean, there's different TA views that people have.
I mean, there's certain TA.
I mean, it's different.
Like my main view is like,
let's just take the history aspect on this too
because what is TA essentially? It's looking at history. It's looking at what Price did view is like, let's just take the history aspect on this too. Because what is TA essentially?
It's looking at history.
It's looking at what price did in the past to, you know, predict the future, obviously.
Bitcoin arguably would have bottomed in June of 2022, you know, and it's always bottomed
out earlier every single time.
It would have bottomed essentially in June of 2022 without FTX.
MicroStrategy bottomed in May of 2022.
So essentially, when you look at that,
that was about six months before the bottom last time.
It was December of 2018.
And so six months before that would align
with sometime in quarter one
for a potential Bitcoin bottom.
If you do look at some of the momentum changes,
some of the momentum signs on the two week,
for example, you look at the trend line,
we did bounce off of a major trend line. And then you kind of use that and, you know,
use that in combination with some fundamentals, you know, institutional interest and all that
good stuff. Then you could come up with a decent argument that we potentially have bottomed.
In addition, the bottom's always been, you know, not last time we did go lower than it quite a bit,
but it's around the 200 weekly SMA in most of the bear markets.
That we almost hit it right around, you know, 58K at the time.
Now it's probably when we do finally hit it, I think low 60s.
Like, I think there's going to be kind of a higher low or some type of double bottom situation for Bitcoin.
I would kind of make an educated guess and say that would be May, June or July, like around the summer, that kind of area.
So you do have momentum changes.
I mean, I like your two week right now.
If we could confirm kind of how this two week looks, I think that could, you know, mark a major bottom.
In addition, you know, I think that micro strategy compared to Bitcoin could have bottomed just like it bottomed against Bitcoin in May of 2022.
compared to Bitcoin could have bottomed just like it bottomed against Bitcoin in May of 2022.
And the same thing, if you look at how long it took for MicroStrategy to bottom last time,
back in that last bear market in 2022, it's been the same number, same amount of time. I think it
was 60 something weeks. It's been the same amount of time. So it would make, it looks like you're
almost in a simulation of MicroStrategy. So I think there's a decent argument to say that
micro strategy could have bottomed, even if Bitcoin does end up going to, let's say 50K or 48K,
something of that nature, you know, that that's the main thing there that we can say. So yeah,
that's what I'm looking at. I mean, in terms of IREN versus like micro strategy or a lot of these
things versus micro strategy, I am a bit more bullish on micro strategy because it's gotten
beat up more. It does look strong. Like if you compare us, for example, micro strategy versus
Palantir, like that's a big chart to look at. That's just a very textbook bubble pop pattern.
Like I think that micro strategy is going to outperform Palantir for probably a couple of
years, potentially. Um, I know while you were asking about the, uh versus, what was it, SanDisk.
I would mess with SEI.
I like that.
Even SEI versus hype looks like it because that's had some momentum against hype.
So I think SEI could be the one.
I mean, I'm not, like, you guys follow this more than me.
Like, I barely even know what.
I think I heard about SEI for the first time like a week ago.
Solaris.
But I want to do my research.
Like, I mean, even though I am, am like a person who's more centered towards ta i still i'm still not going to buy
something you know that i don't i i know nothing about you still want to understand you know what
the hell is going on and kind of you know because the thing is if you're just looking at ta like
it's you know and there's people that you know have had various amounts of success you know
trading complete garbage you know like tokens and pepe and you know, have had various amounts of success, you know, trading
complete garbage, you know, like shit tokens and Pepe and, you know, all that.
And I mean, my hat off to them.
If you got rich off of Pepe, good for you.
But, you know, I don't, I'm somebody who's like somebody more of like, you know, centered,
you know, I have my invalidation points.
But I think like the strongest thing right now for at least for the average person to
follow is like, you know, look at microstrategy versus Bitcoin.
If microstrategy makes a lower low versus Bitcoin,
that's a big invalidation.
Like, I would convert my microstrategy over to Bitcoin
if that were to happen,
because if it can't outperform Bitcoin,
you know, what's the sense?
And that would go for the same thing on all of these,
like SEI or, what was it, Nibius we talked about,
IRON, that would be anything.
You know, you're trying to outperform Bitcoin
at the end of the day.
And I think, you know, a lot of people, if they looked at a lot of their altcoin evaluations,
and I'm guilty of this myself, I've learned this the hard way.
If you look at your altcoin evaluations versus Bitcoin,
you would have probably escaped a lot of pain through 2024 and 2025
where generally 90-something percent of them just continuously bled against Bitcoin.
You know, you could have converted a lot of them back to Bitcoin at the right time and
preserved a lot of your Bitcoin evaluation. And I'll admit it, I screwed that up pretty badly.
I was smoking the hopium way too much with altcoins in the last run. And now I've kind of
learned from that. I've definitely learned from that. So that's what I'm looking at. I mean,
let's sum it up. I'll just say here, lastly, I mean, I think Bitcoin's going to be potentially bearish for a few more months,
potentially. And I do think, you know, we're not, people talk about bull market, bear market. I mean,
I think we're going to be in a crab market. You know, you're probably, your average price,
like from now until like October is probably going to be somewhere between like 60K all the
way up to 75K. And if you DCA that or do something like the options, you know,
wheel strategy with options, like you'll do pretty well in the longterm, right? At least
the two or three X in the coming years. So, you know, that's kind of what I look at. I don't
think 70k is a bad place to buy. Um, I think it's a pretty good place in the longterm. Um,
you know, DCA from here to log, even if you go into like, let's say we go down a 40k or something ridiculous, you know, even if you DCAed from now till October, you still would be very good.
And the history would tell you, you know, the average bear market for anything, not just stocks and crypto or not just crypto, but stocks as well.
It's eight to 12 months.
So if you DCAed now until October, the odds are very, very high that you would get exposure at good prices.
So, yeah.
I think I'm going to get some Solaris at market open tomorrow.
I think I'm going to do that.
I'm looking some stuff up right now.
If you're bullish Oracle, then you have to be bullish Solaris.
If you're bullish Oracle, you're bullish on AI. If you're bullish on AI, you have to be bullish solaris if you're bullish oracle you're bullish on ai if you're bullish on ai it's up and to the right and um yeah those proceeds
probably get some more hype off of that man um man i've never looked at any pair charts
very few times except with like eth btc last year that was a nice run hype btc is something i look
at hype versus lighter i think lighter is trash um i think it's worse than dydx uh i think hyper
liquid won not only the tokenization narrative but also perps and crypto if you're not perps
and if you're not bullish on perps and crypto or crypto options,
like what the fuck are you doing here?
Is the point of BTC just to glaze Michael Saylor
and how much Bitcoin he adds to his balance sheet?
I think not.
I think there's a lot more excitement to come into the crypto space,
in my opinion, and the proof is in the pudding.
Hype is up like 60 year to date um and i just don't really see any other investable asset um at least like
medium term being one two years um even solana has some issues with its supply dynamics until um
issues with its supply dynamics until um what does it start fire dancer that upgrade which is
basically like their version of the eth merge um that's not going to happen for a while they're
probably going to delay that until next year there's not many other investable assets um
we talked about canton yesterday rwas and crypto i i just don't really think people
right now care they care about perps and options and there are very few names for that um so i
guess we just have to wait out for some new names to come out evan um like where's the notional buyer for for things like ada dot um trx has an infinite bid at least
for now the more tether prince trx is gonna continue going up into the right um every
couple of years it's like a slow mover um i think pepe hits an all-time high at some point. I don't think meme coins die, ever.
But as far as investment-grade assets,
like revenue and all that stuff,
it's only hyperliquid right now.
ETH is just being destroyed by Vitalik.
He is just selling relentlessly
and kind of doom-posting the space that brought him up that
rose him up um i don't know what's going on in solana without pump fun which is mainly a benefit
a beneficiary of a of a full frenzy of a bull market unless pump is printing money hand over fist, making more revenue month over month.
It's kind of like,
it's kind of like a sailor,
right?
Like MSCR is going to do good.
As long as sailor keeps buying more and more Bitcoin compared to his last
purchase,
it's all dependent on him buying an extra couple of billion.
Same thing with pump.
It depends on, you you know if they make more
fees their revenue month over month and right now that's just not happening so if that's not
happening what's the thesis on soul right now it's kind of in limbo um and i really try my best man
to kind of seek some hidden alpha but right now it's just hyperliquid accumulating more hood
in some of these plays in equities, whether it's Sandisk, Micron, and now Solaris, I think,
just from a market cap perspective, even though it's at all-time highs right now,
I really don't care. It's a breakout. The valuation seems cheap to me.
It's a breakout.
The valuation seems cheap to me.
I'm just going to ape and ask questions later.
You look at altcoins right now with the same valuation.
They're not really doing much.
You're having double-digit moves on a weekly basis on names that have tens of billions in market cap and equities.
That's not happening in crypto.
I do think it will come, though, Evan.
Maybe like in the summertime.
The summertime is usually good for breadth.
It has been over the last 10 years.
2016, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, all the way through 25.
Summer is always a nice time of breadth
until a few weeks before Labor Day.
And then usually a week or two after Labor Day,
you start to see some strength in certain sectors
and you ride your positions and Christmas rally happens.
We didn't get one last year, though, for crypto.
We didn't at all
no Christmas rally
but Hutt went into
price discovery
well not price discovery but
new cycle highs
anyways
if you guys have anything else to add
Matt, Evan, AI guy
if you guys want to say anything else feel
free to do so otherwise i think i'm gonna wrap up here man it was a great show that was good man
base space man i can't believe i yelled at david levinson like that uh he's probably listening to
this dude i'm sorry i lost my temper maybe next time uh you won't be a little
next time we're at bitcoin iago weren't you offering to give him a lap dance at one point
or so what was the lap dance point well i have no idea i bet i was just uh cooking and i was like
dude i'm uh i don't know i think i was like don't get off my lap or something like i'm not gonna give you a lap dance yeah yeah whatever i don't remember what i said like i was just i was trolling the guy
but i called him uh dave i called him gavid lesbian
and then uh i lived in space before that i was like every time i hear david on a space
my first uh instinct is i'm leaving son like levinson leaving i'm leaving i'm leaving
yeah that guy it's entertaining man it's i kind of screwed up the i i was trying to like um
lessen the the heat but
i should have just kept quiet because the argument was it was pretty funny
yep until next time all right thanks wabi
all right man i'm gonna go ahead and uh wrap up um hopefully this bye for Solaris age as well it's just going to be a starter position
anyways
guys
AI guy
Matt, Evan, David
Mike
everyone else who came on the show
thank you thank you thank you
thank you so much for tuning in
so you guys enjoyed the last three hours of the show.
My name's Wabi.
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