Projects
![]()
No projects found
Investors
New
DAO Treasuries
DATs
Lend / Borrow APRs
Chains
Categories
Spaces
Market Talk-Is the bottom in!? BTC rips from 60k to 70k!? Stocks pump!
Recorded: Feb. 6, 2026 Duration: 1:45:31Space Recording
Short Summary
In a lively discussion, crypto enthusiasts analyzed the recent volatility in the market, highlighting significant growth in equity markets and the potential for a bullish trend if key resistance levels are broken. However, concerns about a bear market loomed as participants debated the implications of AI integration and the future of tokens like Solana and WorldCoin.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. I can't remember anything, can't tell if this is true or dream.
Deep down inside I'm feeling the scream.
This terrible silence stops me.
Now that the world is through with me,
I'm waking up I cannot see.
That is not much left to me.
Nothing is real but pain now. is
Oh, dear.
Time to shoot and leave me free.
Now this life I'm from there, I hold my breath.
This I wish for dear.
Oh, please, God, wait me. God bless you. Oh, God. Oh my god! Thank you. I'm going to go to the next one. Music I'm going to get back to you.
My sight.
Digging my speech.
Digging my hearing.
Digging my arms.
Digging my legs.
Digging my soul.
Let me run like this.
Yeah. so so Thank you. so music yo what's going on guys naka how are you brother, welcome back to Market Talk brought to you by BB. My name's Wabi.
And man, the volatility this week in this market has been nothing short of amazing.
After we closed yesterday's show, which you guys most definitely should check out yesterday's show.
If you guys missed out, do yourselves a favor listen to the recording listen to all the recordings as
much as possible especially when the market gets this exciting yesterday after the show
we actually did make even lower lows i think we hit 60k on the dot but i do believe on curve
we hit just below 60k i did get myself some solana for a bounce um right at like 69 just below 70 i
saw that we hit 67 and uh i even took a screenshot and everything and i'm like bro if this thing
at least does not offer a sympathy bounce after it hits 67 67 then i I don't know what to say. But it's not really a large position.
And I'm probably going to close it out.
Probably going to close it out like tomorrow or probably later this evening.
Huge bounces across the board in the equity markets.
10% plus on hood, 20% plus on MSTR.
Plus on MSTR, you have the S&P absolutely ripping.
You have the S&P absolutely ripping.
There is a fake post going around with a true social post with Donald Trump saying, let the gains begin.
I truthfully don't know any news that came out today as far as the market bouncing up like this.
But you do like to see this stuff.
In bull markets, it's not in a straight line.
You do tend to have some dips.
And the same goes for bear markets.
But I will say this.
I do think we do actually need a weekly close.
At the very least, at the very least, above the March 2024 high.
That's something that I would personally like to see right between $74,000 and $75,000.
I do want to see a weekly close above that.
And I will say that we were here on the show discussing that BTC monthly RSI and the Soul Weekly RSI are hitting some very familiar levels.
They were approaching 2022 bear market low levels, but that's not to say that they can't slide any lower or even have a retest of
said levels but at the very least you do like to see some bulls step in or in this case there were
there were a ton of shorts that got covered um i saw the live action right on the order books it
was honestly insane to see that price action in real time um again i do like to
see this kind of price action but we do have a very important weekly close coming up and we did
also see this kind of price action unfold right after luna effectively went to zero you saw things
like avax sandbox ada solana have monstrous bounces shortly after that.
And it was really just a huge short covering that went on.
And, of course, you don't have a bunch of short coverings after a huge capitulation event.
You do tend to bounce.
And then you have something that drives people absolutely crazy which is a range if there is anything
that drives people in this market crazy it's ranges i see prometheus i'll send him an invite
to speak i'll send big cheds an invite to speak big cheds had a a tweet a couple of days ago
saying that 60k was it was a level that he was eyeing i also saw matt he posted a few days ago 60k was another
level that he was eyeing and truth be told um even though i'm not too enthusiastic about the sector
of the market that i participate in which is usually just on-chain shitters i don't i don't
really pay much mind to majors uh to be honest outside of btcTC outside of like soul and hype I'm really not enthusiastic
about many other majors most of them are just just pure trash but either way I do like to see
the volatility I do like to see some juice being injected because if it was just down only then
there's really nothing to do at that point. At the very least, when you see these big mechanical bounces, you could expect a multi-week range.
But we'll see what the weekend has in store for us.
I would like to see some action, man.
A lot of these alts on chain got absolutely decimated.
It was pure carnage what we saw yesterday.
There was effectively pure chaos on the timeline.
CZ was basically calling everyone poor.
And you know what's ironic?
Anytime CZ says that he's poor again, like he tweeted yesterday,
there tends to be a bounce and then there tends to be another drawdown.
But I do have some dubious speculation um if you
guys uh if you guys remember back late last year uh one of the people from binance i think it's
cz's partner yi he or something like that i don't know how to pronounce her last name she's from
china i don't know how to pronounce chinese names but anyways um she said that the super cycle,
you could see a super cycle in full force by February or March.
So I think just playing an inverse of that,
saying that we're probably going to have new lows around that time period is probably well.
Anytime CZ talks about a super cycle,
then, oh boy, you kind of know
what already happens.
And on top of that,
some other dubious speculation,
there is a blood moon eclipse,
whatever that is.
We had those in September and in March.
And shortly after that,
all markets experienced some major turmoil.
So kind of the same thing, right?
Like as Powell starts to leave office, you're probably going to see a bunch of uncertainty, really.
But the one thing that we've been discussing on the show is volatility.
David tends to talk about that a lot.
And for a while, this market had zero to no volatility.
And if history is any indication, upside volatility comes back into the market after major downside volatility and a flatlining of volatility.
We saw that in August of 2023.
We had massive volatility to the downside after a period of almost zero vol we were doing nothing in july
and most of august between call it 28 to 31k we had that vol event and then we had another vol
event the august after that um and i would call this a vol event as well. When you do have a weekly RSI and monthly RSI
and a few key assets in the market,
you could expect a regime to change,
even if it's just flatlining before the last leg down,
if that last leg down occurs.
But the main thing is the equity markets.
The equity markets are the number one thing to pay attention to and
we did see this kind of price action in q1 of last year after uh after we started to go
red year to date on things like the queues we did start to see these little bounces but
it could just be some short covering but either way i i did get myself some soul um if it hits 90 or if it breaks
below like 80 bucks i think i'm just gonna i think i'm just gonna cut it but it was a nice bounce for
what it's worth man um and it would be so funny if like the actual bottom was yesterday and solana
bottoms at 67 dollars that that would be that That honestly would be hilarious, man.
Mimetic numbers, I tell you.
But I got Naka up here, got Cheds up here, got Prometheus up here.
We're going to have some of our other guys come in during the second half of the show,
as we always do.
I want to thank each and every single one of you that are tuning in live right now
or listening to the recording.
Welcome back to Market Talk.
I hope you guys stayed safe out there.
I hope October 10th of last year was a lesson for a lot of you
that leverage in this market is a bit different than it has been
under different regime changes.
I made a post on my personal profile saying saying that you know there
were a few people that weren't on the Epstein list which was doh Kwan and SPF
and how the market would have probably traded a lot more cleaner if they were
behind the buttons and not CZ and sailor and heaven speaking of sailors so funny
man how that boat meme that he posted him escaping the the sinking ship on an
orange life raft um was uh in mid-november before the market just just absolutely got decimated man
it's it really is something else you can't really make this up um but either way if you guys can go
ahead show some love to the stream before we officially get started guys I hope you're all having a fantastic Friday or
Saturday and we're gonna go ahead and get rolling so again before we go ahead
and do that if you guys can go ahead show some love to the space best way to
do that guys is by clicking the spaces tab once you guys open the app and then
after you guys click on the spaces tab right above our profile pictures you'll see a link above that says x.com slash I slash spaces hit the
like button hit the repost button let's get some more people in here some more
speakers as well if you guys want to come up and talk some shop or ask some
questions I usually do this every Friday I like to bring up some people on the
panel maybe you guys are seeing something in the market that you want to
let us know or let the audience know.
Or anything else, really.
Just hang out or something like that.
There's a button to the bottom left, a little microphone.
Just click that, and I'll bring you right on up.
I want to start off with Big Cheds first, man.
He's been really active during this volatility.
really active during this volatility. Big Cheds, how are you, man? And do you think
Big Cheds, how are you, man?
this is simply just a complacency bounce like we've seen, call it 2018, 2022? What are your
thoughts on really everything that went on yesterday, man? I think it was the largest
volume candle that we've had since October I think it was even bigger than
that vol event that we had on October 10th of last year we also have things
like the RSI on so on the weekly BTC on the monthly hitting some very
interesting levels man so let's let's first start out by talking about the
blood moon okay you know let's let's start with the important things right wabi um yes yes sir
what up everybody just chilling just chilling um yeah so it was interesting so i mean i did a stream
by the way so i did like an hour stream on youtube and you know for me it's it's an interesting spot
because i basically said we're going to go to 76k you from the 90s. I said we're going to 76 K depending on how strong we hold there
Then we're gonna then gonna go to 60 and then a couple days ago
I said basically watch out at 60 62 like we're gonna bounce there and like set up for a long trade a good
You know should be a good trade from there and it like it's crazy
How it kind of played out exactly how I thought it might and I get it wrong a lot because i'm always trying to get it right um but if like you said we
actually had the largest daily volume on bitcoin since april of 2024 with the lowest daily rsi since
covid crash you had like uh just relentless downward pressure on the low time frame and like
so what i was looking for and i so i tweeted tweeted out a scenario you know i kind of do a lot of play by play not necessarily
like the quarterback's gonna throw here it's more like the quarterback did throw and here's what it
means next and um like the weekly price was still within the bollinger bands for those of you kind
of like use bollinger bands it's a reflection of price volatility against a standard deviation of volatility. And so the price was going down,
but it was still kind of controlled. And what I said was we need a shock dip.
We need a fast dip to reverse the momentum. And we started to get it. And you saw four,
you saw like four hour, like 10 four hour red candles in a row and we finally got a little bit
of relief right at 60 61 62k as all these other things are lining up weekly 200 you know most
oversold rsi you know all this other stuff and like all the old like old-timey old man like
classical charting like technical analysis was like perfect in this scenario worked real clean and a nice bounce and
complacency bounce i mean these are terms these are names that you can only really know after
i think it's got a good chance to go to 75 76 if it can clear that level 85 86 but there's a pretty
good chance to test like what should have been support and should have held wabi like in the 70
you know 75 76k range um i think it was just a really nice long i tried to tweet it out ahead
of time live and you know i've been i've been doing the old obama giving himself a metal meme
i've been doing that like all day with my tweets so it's been just a fun day
yeah i i get you man um should we be told I don't remember the last time I
like long Bitcoin yeah I usually just buy spot yeah or in this case I I got
some spot soul cuz I mean it what it was insane but I do see a lot of gloating on
the timeline with like which one soul try like people no no just like the broader
crypto more yeah general they're like oh like how could you not buy how could you buy it's like
like man these people just get off on bull pose yeah right like people that just make their brand
home bull pose it's annoying it's annoying it's not always awesome it's not always awesome. It's not always awesome, you know
Yeah, and whatever like
I mean, I semi I mean, I haven't loaded I just posted a little screenshot
I'm like, alright, this is my entry and then I'm like hey if
Soul hits 67 bucks at the very at the very least man like mimetic mimetic numbers
mimetic mimetic numbers, right?
And, you know, I'm like,
it would be ironic
for at least a bounce, right?
Because Solana's known as the meme coin chain.
And I do see some stuff on there
kind of having sympathy bounces.
But again, they're all still down
like well over 90%.
And, you know, we saw these gnarly bounces throughout 2022. having sympathy bounces but again they're they're all still down like well over 90 percent and you
know we saw these gnarly bounces throughout 2022 but um so Chez you you would want us to see hit
like 75 76 maybe set a little range around I think it makes sense for this move to get there maybe
not initially it might have to pause retest a little little bit. But this type of a bounce, it should be able to get us into the low 70s.
Should be able to push a little higher.
It was just such an oversold bounce.
It was such a big reaction.
I mean, a relentless cell pressure, right?
Lowest cell pressure, lowest RSI since COVID, right?
It's what the trend needed, and it just makes sense. It just makes
sense to push a little more and then we'll see what happens. I don't know, man, I can't forecast
past that. Like, cause you can, you can build steam, you know, you're trying to build a fire
in a wet rainforest. And once you get it going, maybe it keeps going, maybe not.
There's a lot of damage that has to, that has been done on the weekly chart that like is not repaired yet
I just like even though I think it's going lower. I'll play a trade man
I'll play a setup like I get excited when I saw that happening and
It was hard not to kind of jump in on that
Um, and I'll just tail ride it without too many expectations is kind of how I'm looking at it
Cheds and say we break 60K,
what do you think some levels,
where are some key levels of interest for you?
If we break 60?
Yeah, if we break 60.
When we break 60.
You've got support at the bottom of the 2024
range in the low 50s.
And then probably from there
it's going to be 48K.
If you look at 48K, it makes makes sense if you remember back wabi so you know how right now we just failed breakout at 94.5 very recently
we just had a little breakout here and it was just like the 2022 failed breakout at 46k
and that was when in 2022 i said okay oh shit we're going to 15 12 15k when we had the failed breakout at 46
48 and um that's an important level in the chart 48k it's also where the price paused in january
of 2024 so i think that would be a spot that that would be worth looking at right 46 48k um
you know but it's not like gonna jump right down there there's a bunch of support the price grinded
up nicely you've got all the you got low 50, you got a little bit of action there at 52.
It's not necessarily the price, it's how it gets there. If it drops quickly, any of those support
levels will be fine, right? If it's slowly bleeding, you're going to need the best,
the most well-formed level. So maybe that's more like 45K.
40, 45K, you've got a lot more, a little thicker, a little bit more secure.
You know, so it's about speed and momentum for a trend to reverse, to turn around.
It's just a momentum story.
And just the idea that slow bleeds tend to lead to a level being lost,
but a sharp reaction, which is why I said the bulls need a sharp reaction to turn around and thank god we got it all right and it was right at a big level
so it just lined up nicely um if that fails if and when that fails i think um it just didn't
depend on the pace of of how it fails the pace of it, Wabi, you know? It's not like black and white.
Where's Naka at?
I want to hear Naka, who called me crazy when I told him to play the bounce,
and he said, lol, where's he at?
Hey, Naka, you have to say your phrase today, man.
Say it.
Say it. All right, well, good evening, my little D-Gens. How's the band, Mark? Oh, phrase today, man. Say it. Say it.
All right.
Well, good evening, my little D-Gens.
How's the bear market? Oh, come on, bro.
So you got to say with enthusiasm, you came on yesterday extremely happy saying it.
Come on, now.
Good evening, my little D-Gens.
How's the bear market treating you?
So that's the playbook, huh?
Because I think I can't I can't really
Taunt people by saying it's the bull market. There's not enough people believe it's a bull market anymore
Like people like I saw I watched the bankless podcast today
And like the bankless guys were like, yeah now i'm like i'm like so surprised that like, you know
Are we in a bear market now? i guess we are i didn't think we
were until today but we're probably right at the bottom now so yeah i'm so bullish like you know
those bankless guys are i mean i love them i love their content but that they are very ngmi in terms
of price action and so like the the kind of you know um the kind of not not they they said that they said that they contributed hundreds of
billions to east market cap it's like they contributed billions to east market cap because
of a podcast come on dude they have a good podcast man i mean like if you if you increase
by one percent you want you want to know someone dude who's like extremely underrated, has never talked about, and actually did some stuff.
Jeffrey Epstein.
No, no, no.
I'm some hero.
Dude, dude, dude.
Chico Crypto, bro.
Chico Crypto.
Dude put out a video on DeFi in 2019 before Uniswap even had like pairs i think um like the summer of 2019 he's like yo
d5 is gonna be huge dude did like an hour-long video covering things like synthetics uh covered
link at the bear market lows and just basically was like one of the first guys that would constantly cover eth with
all these guys do is interviews dude interviews suck it's i i don't think i've ever learned
anything in interviews when it comes to like fundamental analysis stuff man ever ever ever
ever i'm sorry naka i'm sorry, Naka. I'm sorry, man.
The ETH guys and their...
Well, anyway,
what they were saying on their podcast
was that now they're convinced that it's a
bear market, but they
think that it's probably near the bottom
of the bear market that we've nearly bottomed now.
So, I
can't really...
Even Mike
Alfred might still think we're in a bull market
But basically nobody else thinks we're in a bull market, right?
You know, you don't plumb those kinds of prices and have people say it's still a bull market
So it is a bear market now the question as every bear market and remember from 2022 is
And remember from 2022 is where is the bottom?
Where is the bottom?
Everyone wants the bottom.
It's 35 to 45 K.
I identified that weeks ago.
Yeah.
I mean,
it could be more like 30 K,
but I mean,
not the goalpost,
man.
Come on now.
There are,
there are,
you know,
like it could be,
it could be,
it could be 30,
it could be 40.
I don't think it could be, it could be 25 knock be 30 could be 40. I don't think it could be it could be 25 knock at this point, right?
I'm skeptical about that. I don't think we go that low. Um
But you know, I mean
Maybe if there's a nuclear war right which probably won't happen. But anyway
Every every bear market you get this negotiation
Where you know people accept it's a bear market but they're like yeah
but the bottom's really close right like it's really close you know it's like just a couple
of k below what the latest low is is the bottom right and so the the coins that you've bought
they're good like they're good you know you're only a couple of k off the bottom it's all fine
and you'll get this negotiation all the way down until you get to the actual bottom, at which point people will stop talking about the bottom. And they'll,
CC will be a ghost town. Nobody will be here. Um, you will get, you know, you'll, you'll get like
actual genuine bear warrior, like, like literally bears telling you that they are geniuses, which is what Jayla did at the,
the FTX lows.
So basically,
you know,
I think that we bottom low 35 K probably,
but probably above like 30,
30 to 35.
I think it's the most high probability.
And I think it happens later this year.
And I think there's a lot of fuckery that has to happen now because we've,
we've kind of gone down, we've gone down too much, right?
Like it, it was kind of fun for like, for like a couple of hours to just
relentlessly, um, sort of taught people, but we have actually overstepped our
bear mandate so i will be talking
to the other people on the bear council about you know saving our ammunition up a little bit
not overextending next time um so we will have to do some fuckery to get people complacent again
to get people to think the bottom's in to get people to think the super cycle's coming all
of this stuff then we can leg down again i think is is the way this is going to go i i think it
could be months before we take the next uh major leg down like i think we i think the next major
leg down is probably like 48 level um and we we get there in like i don't know june or something
i don't know when and so god knows what happens for the next couple of months because I don't
I'm going to bring up Prometheus.
I mean, one, one thing, one thing I've seen Benjamin Cohen posting is the
fucking 2018 fractal. I'm like oh god
Like the level
Of pain if we just do
2018 fractal but all the prices are
10x like you know
We'll kind of bounce we'll go
Back up to like 90k
Distribute
Back down to 60
Bounce again
It was different flows man it was
you had eos you had block you had block one selling you had all the ico selling
i think people underestimate how bad 2018 and 2022 were um the supply was completely different and
with ibid people think it's larry fink dumping it's
just his clients dumping they're not his clients it's just people from tradfi dumping that's that's
that's all it is it's not one of one of the one of the reasons having looked into this i i kind of
you know i i kind of like posted kruger's, um, um, summary of this, but basically the reason
like there was a long-term reason for this dump and there was a short-term reason.
So the long-term reason is basically crypto is underperforming on a
relative basis compared to AI.
Right.
So crypto hasn't really innovated.
There's nothing new that we've kind of like reached the top of the food
chain in
terms of buyers we've got etfs right trad fi is that is damping down the volatility with options
and stuff and then on the other side ai is very new and exciting and the money's going into that
ai capex is is bearish right people think our ai's is pumping, everything's bullish, but that's not really the
way it works. If you take a bunch of money and you use that money to build a data center,
and that data center takes three years to build, and then in three years time, that data center
is producing useful output. Well, for those three years, that money's just disappeared,
right? So it's not there to bid up the shit coins and so
that was the kind of like you know um long-term kind of reason for it like yeah we've got the
cyclical top four-year cycle relative underperformance trad by dumping it all this
stuff but the short-term thing was this fucking new fed chair guy um who i looked into a bit uh i believe his name is and um you know this this guy this guy
quit his job at the fed he resigned uh under obama because he thought they did too much stimulus
after after 08 so this guy is not good for risk assets right i mean he's not he's not gonna like
crash the markets on purpose but
he believes in fiscal responsibility and you know he actually does like crypto but the kind of uh
central bank policy that he's going to bring in by fiscal responsibility i don't pump the markets
you know don't inject a bunch of cash right that's actually going to be bearish for risk assets so
you know the that was and he his nomination was the short-term catalyst that actually caused this
dump at least that's what kruger macro thinks and i i think that's that i think that's a fair
assessment um so with with that being the reason for the dump right like i don't think, I think if you're expecting super cycle or something like that,
you're fucking delusional, right? Like, cause if you think about all of those reasons,
relative underperformance compared to AI, AI data center built out kind of sucking money up and then
producing no output for a couple of years whilst those data centers actually get built. All that
stuff is fucking giga bearish in the in the short
term right um and then you've got this fed guy who's being put in who's like you know bad for
risk assets as well you know i think i think it's a bear market right like i think i think it's a
bear market we now know why it's a bear market and i don't think there's reasons gonna go away
maybe they are i don't know i mean you know to go away. Maybe they are. I don't know. Maybe AI could surprise us.
Maybe the singularity will happen next week and then all the prices go to infinity.
But I don't think so.
Yeah, I just sold my soul.
I sold my soul here, man.
Yeah.
It was a good bounce, man. It was a good bounce, man.
It was a good bounce.
20-25%.
What did
soul end up at?
I got
filled at 69 and change.
What is it now?
I closed it at 87.h 87 87.5 i mean the thing is i i've been i've been
talking to a bunch of guys who are bullish on solana for the whole fucking bull market right
ever since like you know mid 2024 when it pumped up they were like yeah it's going to a thousand
it's going to a thousand like i'm bidding here i'm, yeah, it's going to a thousand. It's going to a thousand. Like I'm bidding here. I'm bidding 200, right?
It's going to a thousand, it's going to 2000.
And like, you know, how are those guys going to feel about the bounce from 67 to 87?
Right.
I really hope some of those people took my advice to like, not touch soul.
Like if you miss the soul pump and I missed the soul pump, don't touch it.
Don't buy the distribution.
It can't go higher.
It's like, you know, it's like you know it's like
like 100 trillion dollar asset for people to trade meme coins it's like it's still going to 55 bucks
so why not just wait going to 20 i think but i mean you know i i was too bearish about solana
last cycle so maybe i i i just think a lot of people are just going to get tired of playing on pump fun
um because the ceilings get lower and lower and lower and lower for some of these things on solana
um so i mean what happens like when you i i i heard this analogy from someone i think it was
prometheus but it's like imagine like you're at a kid in a candy store and you like all the candy,
but there's a particular set of candy that you like.
And then the new inventory starts to taste bad, right?
And you're like, oh, let me try tomorrow.
And it's worse.
And it gets worse.
And it gets worse.
And eventually, you just stop buying that piece of candy.
And so what happens when there are no more buyers
the price is reduced and they try to have deals and all that stuff right
you have anatoly talking about like a new yet another phone and all that stuff he's rage
baiting his audience um what happens when you try rage baiting your audience price is probably
going to suffer so well he's trying to he's trying to he's trying to make another solana phone. Yeah. Yeah, yeah
That's some good memes in the 2022 bear market about the solana phone
It was always like you know when solana dumped like hang on wait a second. I'm getting a call on the salon
Yeah, yeah I know i know i know um i i was i was really
surprised that solana made it but i think like the reason that a lot of people myself included got the
solana trade wrong was because everyone basically believed vitalik right vitalik said oh we're going
to make l1s obsolete and i was like yeah he is and that's it it's all over for them
and it was actually all over for almost all of the of the uh l1s except solana and the reason it wasn't over for solana was because like
Ethereum actually didn't get its shit together right like they actually didn't
So um
Yeah, so we have a pretty good pump this cycle also. I don't think
How much did Sui do?
How much did Sui do?
I mean, they launched at a dollar,
but then, of course, they had that multi-month dump.
So from the bottom, it went from $0.35
all the way to just over $5.
That's like a $0.50.
I mean, it's okay, but it's not.
Yeah, but most of its run
happened from August of 2024 all the way till January. okay, but it's not. Yeah, but most of its run happened
from August of 2024
all the way till January, because
it had a gnarly retrace.
Yeah. Say also
had a pretty good pump,
Injective, Casper,
but those were like...
Casper was
one of the few coins
where if you actually got into Casper early you retired
yourself if you didn't sell right
um and I
know some people who got into Casper early
and they didn't tell me about it and I fucking hate them
for it uh and it's also a bit of a
silent runner like nobody on
there wasn't much talk about Casper
but Casper did like did a thousand
x or something I think right
um was a thousand x or something i think right um was it a lot
it was a lot casper did a lot a lot of the people from luna that actually went to zero
um bought this thing a lot of them a lot of those people um but, I'm sure there's going to be another play like that in the next like
year. So, uh, BTC is also pumping on the lower timeframe.
Casper unironically did a thousand.
Casper unironically did a thousand decks.
Like that is, that is the, that is the kind of thing where, you know, if you caught that
and you put a couple of thousand bucks in early and you just
held until the obvious hop like it's a very obvious distribution like that's it you're retired
right that's what i want to catch like you know fucking you know oh we caught the bounce you know
we bought long bitcoin from yeah it's nice it's nice i'm not gonna i'm not gonna you know it's
nice i'm not gonna detract from people who have successfully done that,
but like you want to be, how do I get the next Casper?
How do I get in on the next coin? That's going to thousand X, right?
Because there probably will still be opportunities like that.
Maybe there'll be, I mean, this, this cycle was much harder than the previous one.
Like much, much, like much more brutal there was basically no
old season right like as opposed to the 2021 cycle where there was a pretty big there were basically
two big alt seasons in 2021 right um whereas this this time we basically didn't get a real
season like kind of in 2024 a little bit with but only a couple of things actually ran like if you weren't
in like solana or injective you know what were you even doing right just get a day job but um
yeah that's what i want i want the next i want the next casper yeah i mean maybe a good play would be
like pepe at like half a bill market cap.
If it retraces all the way back to the 2023 range,
I just have to get it out of principle because memes are not going.
Like if you think Doge is going to have a pump,
then Pepe sure shit's going to have a pump.
I just think Pepe needs a massive reset.
And this is fundamentally, I think it just needs a massive reset um and this is fundamentally i think it just needs a massive reset um and i think
going back to that like i think people call it the point of origin whatever if you're a technical guy
i leave a technical talk to some of our other guys but if you look at that level between like
just call it 400 mil to 600 mil right around that level at that point dude i'm just gonna buy
pepe and wait like two years um because dubiously speculating on new launches
it's always gonna be dangerous man and if i'm gonna play new launches i'd rather just play
on chain instead of some vc back thing with predatory tokenomics um but i mean i'm looking i'm looking at the top 100 right now
dude it's like the the saddest site ever like who the hell is gonna buy ondo tokenized treasuries
get real get real dude you could just go on hyper liquid and just like they need to they need to
they need to sell tokenized islands in the caribbean like that that
would have a market like if you could have a tokenized island in the caribbean with like you
know little tokenized uh you know jailbait parties like people would buy that right
that's what they need to tokenize dude Dude, you must be talking about Sandbox and Decentraland, bro.
Like the metaverse thing.
Yeah.
Hey, those rallies were actually
pretty nice, man. Like, that was actually a good
time in the market.
The whole metaverse thing.
You could bid random garbage
and 10x on it. And I 10x'd on
like, the fucking metaverse
index token.
Yeah, that was a good one, dude. That was a good. Yeah, just the fucking metaverse index
I was like, oh that looks kind of bottoms. I'll i'll bid i'll put a thousand in ten thousand comes out a couple months later
Like we had it so good man. We had it so good in who was behind and who was behind the buttons bro sbf
and and do kwan right so it's
better than sailor and cz i'll tell you what i think i said this before the election but
if history is any indication you just go by what history says
markets do a lot better under democratic regimes than republican regimes republican regimes are often
filled with a ton of volatility and the average retail person just can't really handle that right
um they have paper hands they have massive paper hands um and take a look at crypto like dude crypto is acting like post.com um and the dot-com top was basically right when trump
got elected and we retraced all of that we retraced all of that man um so i would like to see a weekly
close above 75k to be honest if if if we say hey 60k is the low and we're just going up from here
we're not even going to retest 60.
I'd want to see that.
But more than likely, we're probably going to range, man.
After a huge reset like that in the market, you'd be stupid to think that we're at least not going to range.
Because this isn't 2022.
If this was 2022, bro, like we would just be dumping right now.
If it was 2022, we would have just have
no balance dude we would have no balance we would have been flatlined man you guys remember q2
um of 22 it was like the worst quarter um ever like in crypto history ever ever ever ever ever
um and i think solana really got dude Solana just got its ass handed to it.
And I think for the broader market, Solana is still going to be that number one thing because a lot of the unsophisticated capital that came into the market in the last few years, they just bought spots sole.
They just bought spots sole.
So it's like – it's kind of like ETH during last bear market, right?
If you want to see how risk was going to do, just pay attention to ETH.
Watch the price action of ETH, and this time it's Sol.
So with that being said, Sol probably drastically underperforms next cycle.
And the new thing is probably going to be hyperliquid just because your average crypto participant is saying, damn,
all these guys in Tradfire are making a ton of money. How do I get in on all the action?
You can trade on hyperliquid and benefit from those same type of gains. And it's liquid as well.
There's volume. There's liquidity. It's not some like weird DeFi platform where it's only like three or four people using bots to trade against each other. Right. It's not like synthetic. Synthetics tried doing what Hyperliquid was doing with stocks and other assets. Right. So what's the beneficiary of all that volume? It's going to be the underlying token itself.
all that volume it's going to be the underlying token itself so you had that guy on bloomberg
last may giving the thesis on why people from tradify would buy hyperliquid when it was trading
at 15 right so that's that that's just where i'm at right i'm not i'm kind of maybe i'm turning into an onk but i'm just really tired of
on-chain right now and if solana was was your indicator for how on-chain activity is going to
go and you see solana price reacting this way and the inflationary tokenomics are going to get worse
and worse and worse how long is it going to take for people to just get tired of it
and take their money like they did from Ethereum a few years ago
and go on to another chain is what I'm asking myself.
Because I think we can all agree, right,
that everything with BTC, ETH, and other majors should have traded a lot higher.
But what you ended up seeing this cycle is a lot of people blowing out their money, speculating on on-chain tokens, and a lot of those stablecoins just got destroyed.
They got wrecked.
So the ceiling was a lot lower, right?
At least that's my take.
That's my take.
Feel free to respond, Naka.
Yeah, I mean, I'm kind of bearish on the Sol meme coin ecosystem.
I think that's kind of been done to death.
But, like, you know, Solana is actually where a lot of these fucking AI agents are trading.
And, you know, the Ethereum people are actually still being retarded about it.
Like, they say they're going to try and scale the Ethereum L1,
but they're not going to do it quickly enough.
And so if AI undergoes like quite a fast,
I guess you could call it a fast food,
at least on chain where,
you know,
maybe in six months,
there's going to be like a very large ecosystem of AI agents that all want to
like trade with each other. It's going to happen like a very large ecosystem of ai agents that all want to like
trade with each other um it's going to happen on solana right it's not going to happen on ethereum
um so sol could actually sol could dump over the next couple of months and like make you know
pretty sad lower low in like the 30s or something and then you could buy that and it could pump
a lot like you know back to like 150 or something i don't you could buy that and it could pump a lot, like,
you know,
back to like 150 or something.
I don't know.
Now that's,
that's a bit sort of outlandish,
but basically,
basically,
you know,
apart from AI being a bit of a wild card,
this looks like a 12 month bear market.
We're in like month four.
Big Chad,
what are some levels that you're looking at for Hyperliquid?
It's actually looking like a little bit of relative strength.
I was watching how well it held up, you know, in the Bitcoin bounce.
I believe it was at 22 that it recently cleared.
Let's see.
Yeah.
So it cleared around, sorry, 28.
Yeah.
I cleared a 28 level
with a little bit of volume and you notice that it um came back and retested it a few times to
kind of strengthen that as an area of demand i feel so silly listen nakamoto talk about like
real fundamentals and i'm like this level of demand has been strengthened it's so weird to
switch to technicals but um yeah anyway so 28 nice building demand it looks like it's um it's so weird to switch to technicals but um yeah anyway so 28 nice building demand it
looks like it's um it's got relative strength hype is has a little bit of action here you know
you can watch it look like 31 you know for a little bit of a higher low um but what it's doing
is it's building pressure and trying to break through the major overhead around 36 37 repeated
tests sent back each time a little bit higher demand a little bit more
aggressive buying so i do like hype um overhead around 37 most important support around 28
exciting stuff so yeah there's not much stuff other stuff that's that like interesting in
terms of relative strength right now.
I don't have any use cases or any magic bullets.
I mean, recently stuff had been strong.
Z-Cash, Monero, some of this other stuff had been kind of interesting.
But a lot of those moves have just faded away, have dissipated that strength.
Yeah, I was pretty disappointed with Monero cause I bought some Monero at like 600 thinking, yeah, this is a breakout.
Like it's a breakout of, um, of like a decade long range.
I mean, it's gotta be worth it.
And then I ended up basically capitulating the trade.
Well, I didn't sell the Monero.
I sold it back into Bitcoin and I'm now holding the coin.
So I'm probably going to lose about
40%, which is about $1,000
on that trade.
Yeah, it's kind of like that Ethereum breakout.
The big breakout Ethereum head
where everyone was calling for $6,500
to $9,000. And it made sense
until it failed to hold
the breakout level. So it's like one of those things
where you can believe the
trade or the investment
idea at the time but you have to have like uh what if i'm wrong and what level is that going
to be and hopefully it's not so much that you take you know a 40 cut i feel like that's too much
yeah i mean i was like you know i was like i won't put too much in i'll put a relatively small risk
and i'll say i'm'm going to stick with this.
Cause often when they're a breakout, they kind of like fuck around a bit.
They, they do like a retest and then just dip underneath quickly, get you to sell them.
Then off they go.
I was like, no, I'm going to like get properly invalidated on this.
And I did.
And maybe, maybe if we hadn't had like the, the massive mega dump dump then maybe it would have done something but uh
coulda shoulda woulda you know the last words of a thought we shall see i think i think if bitcoin
hangs and ranges wabi it's going to leave room for alts to do their thing for a little bit um i just
think a lot of people are are are shy right now um like it's so hard for people to go from from blood to greed it takes a little
time right um but and like a reversal this quick takes a little time to settle in like if people
wake up tomorrow and bitcoin's over 70k they might think okay maybe i can put some money into risk
but it still feels so vulnerable and so fresh right right? So you have to have a little bit of
staying power and that's a big psychological number now, right? Like 70, right? So say it
hangs over 70, then you could see some money flows. I think this is more of a psychological read,
but see some money flows in terms of some of these other things that had been decent and maybe can,
you know, do something now. Um, you know, like pump sucked,
that sucks. Pump sucks. It started to do okay. Like dash, maybe dash can reclaim 4041 could be
a decent trade potentially even Z cash. If Z cash can get up off the floor here a little bit,
um, you know, and get back up above 300, you that would be interesting so yeah you could see that
happen if bitcoin holds it's what i'm trying to say it will leave a little bit of room
you know for some of this other stuff for that higher beta
yeah i mean i'm i'm i'm just kind of bearish on everything now i'm like the way the way this
bitcoin price action has played out
and yeah we got a bounce but this is this is a short covering bounce like we're in a market
for bitcoin that usually means that yes but but but knock it the biggest bounces come in bear markets
yeah yeah i mean if you're i'm not really interested in bounce right like i want to i want a 10x and
you're not going to get you're not going to get in the wrong asset then you know well you know
bitcoin was like a bitcoin was like an 8x yes yes right that's later in this year that's later
in this year right i still think you should play a bounce like this. Like, that play at 60, I feel like it's hard to not take it.
Right? Like, drop that fast
that quick, 50% from the drop
to the MA200 weekly.
Like, the lodestar, right,
for the long-term trend. I don't know.
I mean, it's just...
I can't really disagree with
it, since it was a winning trade.
You know, but, like, I'm just not that interested in a 10% bounce. It's like, I can't really disagree with it since it was a winning trade.
But I'm just not that interested in a 10% bounce.
It's like, whatever.
I mean, yes, you will want money. But if you're going to trade that kind of thing,
you have to invest time to learn how to do that.
And you've got to trade on leverage then because 10% you know 10 on spot like whatever um and i haven't really done that i'm more interested in catching big moves
than than small ones and people who catch a lot of small moves and have a decent win rate and
good risk return they get like you know they grow their capital slow and steady and i've got to
respect that but i just don't do that. I'm looking for a big trade.
It's either a big trade or it's a zero
for me, and at the moment, everything looks
like a zero.
What a jaded
worldview, my friend.
The worldview of
the swing trader. It's either
a 10x or it's a zero.
If it doesn't have capability to be a 10x,'s like what am i doing here right um at least yeah you know and and i
think the thing is that attitude worked really well in 2021 it's been punished quite a lot this
cycle because there haven't been that many excellent opportunities the The one that I did was like Casper was really good.
Solana, if you bought the lows
and held, was pretty good
because it was like basically a 30x.
That's pretty good.
I think
Kobe called the
top on that one. He didn't call
the top, but he's like, hey,
Solana did
like a... Technically it was like almost a 40x from the
bottom trump released a meme coin i think that was a bull market and then solana would just went
in a higher time frame downtrend i mean solana's been in a higher time frame downtrend now for 13
months um that's pretty that's pretty gnarly man that's that's pretty gnarly but but chad's
if your target's 35 to 45 what's what's your time for that because i know i think because i i know
that there's a saying that goes by right like the way the way we we trade at price right the how we
get there is yeah so. So I originally thought
like Q4, right? Because it would just like
line up historically like when Bitcoin bottoms.
But like
yesterday felt like maybe it's sooner.
And that's one of the things where you have to be careful and ask
yourself, am I getting caught up in the moment?
Okay?
But let's say we have a little more
information now. So let's play with it
a little bit. And I'm going to look at the weekly chart. So let's say we, so we have a little more information now. So let's kind of, let's play with it a little bit and I'm gonna look at the weekly chart.
So let's say we kind of mess around here.
We do it like that.
I mean,
I still think it's reasonable at the bottom.
Yeah.
Q4 towards Q4.
Yeah.
I still think that's,
I'm not just going to,
I'm going to just stick with my plan.
I can't,
I don't want,
if you have a good plan,
I think you should stick with it until you get real clear information otherwise.
I feel like it was logical to do what we did,
to drop to where we did and logical to bounce.
It still seems logical to me.
So why don't we just continue with the trend and bottom in Q4?
That's my best guess.
It's a very best guess with the word guess underlined.
It's not super alpha.
It's just like some dude's guess, right?
That's all I got.
Yeah.
Naka, how about yourself, man?
Because you and Chad kind of agree on the same price level.
I kind of agree.
I think it's going a bit lower.
And the reason I think that is because
of this um long-term holder realized price which is currently at 39k but it's probably going to go
down um and every single bear market has violated that by about you know 15 ish percent so if that thing goes down to about 35k and then we violate it by about 10 to
15 i think we end up in the low 30s and that is like a very reliable like it's happened every
single time yeah um so but it's not a big difference like if it's 33 versus 37 it's not
i mean that that is a difference but it's not a huge difference.
I think for me real quick, I don't think we'll know the bottom until we're a bit off of it too.
You know, like that I didn't nail the, the, this, whatever 15 K bottom.
I didn't until it was 18 five for me.
It was like, okay, this is the bottom.
It wasn't like sentiment.
I felt the bottom
at 15k sentiment but i didn't like i didn't see anything in the price so like if it's if the if
the bottom is 37 you won't really know till 45 do you know what i'm saying something like that
yeah and how's sentiment like for you right now big judge it has been apathy i feel like it's
been apathy with a little bit of panic and fear yesterday short term um i think right now i would view sentiment as confusion panic panic was when
panic was when wabi posted the the red pepe with the light
like that was that was panic that was panic dude i i i was on thicky space you know who thicky is right naka
um no i can't so so you know taiki maida right that guy he's like the he was like the ethereum
defy guy last cycle you remember him or no uh i forgot he they call him japanese gcr and he shorted eath he shorted eath um
he shorted eath at like 4k or something like that uh he he did like a million dollars short
publicly and everything and um he was known as an eath but whatever he had this podcast
um i forgot what it was called i can't
remember what it was called whatever they these guys they they did a youtube podcast and this guy
thicky um he would do spaces they would get traction um and whatever he was doing a space
and he was going to have some people up but he was actively trading right and you heard um you heard uh he had the
you know that that that that that that that i'll go bot that goes on when orders hit
um you know what i'm talking about man the the the bing bong noise uh the the agger the agger oh my gosh i sounded like biden there for a bit
he had the agger on uh right as uh prices were trading lower and lower and lower and then i'm
like dude this price action is relentless right and then i go on binance and i see the order books
and you know then i saw the short coverings happen uh at 60. We broke below 60k for like a second on Curve.
That was on Curve, which is like a little DeFi protocol on Ethereum.
And then we saw that short covering.
Someone was trying to save it.
And then once we got past like 61.7, that's when it really, really started.
And then that's when I saw solana bounce off of 67 and
i'm like all right if you have short coverings happening if you have some people actually trying
to save btc like this this aggressively then all right let me at least play a bounce for this thing
right and as that crash was happening i'm like yeah this is probably what sentiment feels like which is the screaming pepe right it's a screaming pepe and then i opened up um i opened up uh like my watch
list for like these on-chain tokens right uh and they're just getting obliterated so it's kind of
like all right this is kind of how sentiment feels right now it's just pure pure hell right there's just there was just no bid
until 60k right and i think that's the level that's probably going to be
yes defended and when it does break i think that's probably the bottom like after that breaks
you kind of want to watch like you know those those shorts uh getting covered and some actual
spot buying because i i i know when you posted
that 18-5 break there was actually a lot of spot buying on some of these asian exchanges um
actual spot bid and what happened happened right usually usually during these huge breaks
of structure you do have a massive mechanical bounce and then you
go into a range but um i understand that bottoming and q3 q4 would kind of go along with
the four-year cycle theory and some people call them bitcoin cycles some people call them liquidity
cycles and usually before times get better, they get
a bit worse. And if we are going to have monetary and fiscal policy changes for the better,
where risk assets would do great, before all that happens, there does tend to be
a pullback in markets. So if we see the S&P pull back by like 10 which isn't even a huge move by the way it's
just a move to like 62 6300 i think that would be quite healthy honestly especially after the
massive rip that we've had and some of these uh ai names like sandisk don't you think we could see
probably some volatility but like towards the summer it just be like in a waiting a waiting game until like midterms right yeah yeah i mean if you look back cheds all the way
like 10 years ago until 2016 the summer has always been a great time whether it's a bull market
whether it's a bear market to play a bounce 2018 had a had a summer rally 2016 17 2019 2020 21 22 23 24 25 like if there's any period in the
year where you can play some brett in the market it's always been um the summertime and then you
usually have uh the late summer pullback right yeah going into going into Labor Day, people kind of take some time off back to school.
And then post Labor Day is when you tend to have vol come back.
And yeah, that's those are kind of my those are kind of my thoughts.
So perhaps I don't know, maybe we take a stab lower as this new Fed chair comes in.
That sets our low.
We rally over the summer, and then we have one more drop before the midterms because people are, I guess, uncertain of what it's going to be.
But I don't really think whoever wins the midterms is going to matter.
Because, again, under democratic regimes, they're going to pump the market. They're going to matter um because again like under democratic regimes they're going to
pump the market they're going to pump ai they're going to pump it like it's like it's big brother
because that's what ai is it's big brother um so whether it's republican whether it's democrat
we're still gonna pump pretty hard so those are kind of those are kind of my my takes on
on the q3, Q4 stuff.
Yeah, but aren't we not correlated with like,
we're not even that correlated in Bitcoin with like broader equities.
So shouldn't we think about them as maybe different tracks,
like heading even into the midterms?
And if we look at 2018, Chuds, if you remember.
2018, Chuds, if you remember.
I was only 10 back then.
Well, in 2018, it was also that strange anomaly as well.
You had tech rallying all the way up until early September, whereas crypto was just getting destroyed, right?
So perhaps the same thing is happening right now.
But I do remember when I first got into crypto, it was under Trump.
I got in late 2017, and this is the kind of volatility that he brought into the market.
So he's a stock market guy, not a crypto guy.
So fear in crypto, you have to withstand this kind of pain.
But when that liquidity comes into the market, it's really fast.
I just wouldn't believe the crap that like some people put on this site, like comparing tokens to other tokens and price action and stuff.
Like that's just trash and like really disengaged.
Maybe they believe it.
People want things to be simple.
We want to kind of boil it down to like give me a fractal and this in this market cap, you know, like we want it easy. And I understand that. Right. It's normal.
Yeah, maybe I should be a bit. You should be. Not everybody's like doing like Nakamoto level analysis. Okay.
Yeah. Yeah. That's right, man. N knocker where did you get your analysis from bro
like where did you who did you what did you learn from i i didn't i mean i just i just make shit up
basically um well i mean i mean i think i think i've hit a few things you know i've hit a few trends my biggest my biggest miss has basically been that i became an ethereum believer and that really skewed my
performance a lot because if i just like if i just started the 20 like if i'd started this cycle
being like okay i don't care about any of the coins.
I just see them as a way to make money.
You know, I probably would have allocated something to Solana just because it was a
consensus thing and everything was cheap.
And some people did that.
And then they got like kind of crappy returns on ETH.
Okay, but not great returns on Bitcoin and pretty decent returns on Sol.
Whereas I got kind of okay returns on Bitcoin
and then I ended up with a bunch of cash
where I was waiting to buy ETH lower
that I never got to deploy.
So are you going to buy Monad at half a penny, Naka?
That would take its FDV, by the way.
That would take its FDV to take its fdv by the way that would take its fdv um to like half
a bill by the way half a bill fdv monad like i mean the thing is it would depend when like when
is this happening what's the bitcoin price right like if the bitcoin price is like 70k like if the price is like 70k and
monads are half a penny i'm like ah i don't think so if the bitcoin price is like 30k relax relax
relax relax relax i'm saying at the bottom dude at the bottom yeah yeah if bitcoin's at like 30k
you can basically buy it not 30 knock it like you you need say we're at 35 40. 35 35 or
even 40. like you know those bitcoin prices you can buy anything and then the question is just
will you outperform bitcoin or underperform it that's the only question at that point because
everything is probably going to go up from there exceptrp yeah that was a gnarly pump man i think that was like
the last pump that that thing yeah um god like that that was like if you want to talk about a
trump pump it was ada too dude like for ada like is this a real thing
oh yeah yeah i think it was uh charles's charles's mushroom hobby it was like a strategic reserve
to deploy to buy more mushrooms because that's all he did i mean like yeah some of these some
of these ngmi coins you know they can be a bit dangerous, but like I even think like if you
bought, you know, random
stuff like fucking Avalanche, did Avalanche
outperform Bitcoin this cycle
or underperform it? Probably underperformed
it, right?
Probably, but by how
much? I mean, probably not
that badly.
I might have to check.
We need AI to do that first.
I mean, like, the other thing you've got to remember, right,
is that you've got to expect a very significant change
in how the world works from AI over the next four years, right?
Like, AI's basically been a bit of a meme for the past couple of years.
Like, people have been, yeah, people use chat GPT, but it hasn't really made much of a difference that's not going to be the case for
the next four years it is going to cause major changes in how the world works and so you've got
to kind of take that into account a bit with this stuff probably ai tokens will be completely dominant
in like the next cycle right i mean assuming that we get the next cycle. Right.
I mean, assuming that we get the next cycle of crypto doesn't just something bad
doesn't happen.
But like,
if we get a next cycle,
AI stuff will be absolutely dominant.
And the thing that is AI related or Bitcoin will get crushed because it'll be
like,
why the fuck would you hold light coin?
If there are like,
you know,
age,
if there were like agents online on chain would you hold Litecoin If there are like, you know If there are like agents
Online, on chain
You know, doing something useful
And you've got some coin
That does something, like why would you have
Ada or Litecoin
Every coin will try to
Rebrand itself as an AI coin as well
Right?
It will be absolutely rampant
You can come out with a token bro
come out with come out with an ai token dude it would go to billions bro that's that's the real
the real token is nakamoto's ai somebody's probably gonna put that on pump aren't they now
how are you not working for like at least team, dude? Most of these guys...
Look, man, I have nothing against anyone experimenting or whatever,
but a lot of these guys raised so much money, man, that it's baffling.
And their product is like...
I mean, who's using Aptos, right?
Oh, my God. Aptos, Crapos. Remember that.
Crazy. Yeah. those right oh my god plus crap thoughts remember that crazy um yeah it had one pump
in january of 2023 and it was down only after that wow so sad um yeah so i think um
i think avax did underperform by By a bit. Only 450% versus Bitcoin to 800%. Yeah, I mean, so it's not like a huge difference, right?
If you actually caught the bottom on AVAX,
which has basically done absolutely fucking nothing,
you got from like $9 to like $50.
So that's kind of like Bitcoin pumping from like 15k to about 75k so you kind of like you
weren't really that far off uh what bitcoin just by buying something at the lows that even if that
something was absolute total garbage dead coin no developers full fraud right like like avalanche hasn't done anything right i mean i had kind of
low expectations for all of the hotel ones and then solana has actually done a bunch of stuff
and avalanche has done absolutely nothing does anyone know what's up with that does
actually know why that happened like why didn't they try and do anything this cycle
like i just haven't heard of it so they just hired um a bunch of people that can salary farm them
and that's it that's what happened with avax they gave away a bunch of sponsorship money
um hoping that the people that show their products could attract volume to their chain
and then they also hired a
bunch of content creators here on twitter that are native to crypto and they got salary formed
that's what happened all their runway got blown up um so yeah their only runway left is selling
their token which is basically infinite because it's proof of stake. So, yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I mean, remember, remember fucking snow dogs.
You remember snow dog when, when was it like, what's his name?
Like, uh, was it, was it sat start just like completely rugged?
Was it sats who did that when he had the snow dog launch and like everyone was super hyped about it and then he just, I forgot, I forgot, man.
I, I forgot, I forgot, man. I,
I totally.
so basically you can,
you can have these things where,
you know,
from the point of view of 2022,
it was not clear.
In fact,
Avalanche looked more bullish than Solana because like in 2022,
when you,
when you said Solana,
you thought,
that's SBF chain.
And then SBF got sent to fucking prison and you were
Like wow I don't want to be part of that
But it turns out it's not actually
SBF's chain it's just that you know
SBF became very friendly with the developers
Very early on developed a strong
Relationship with them and then when SBF went to jail
The devs were like okay
We're just going to do Solana on our own now
And we're actually going to do it whereas
Avalanche who had no relationship with SPF, just randomly, you're telling me
got salary farmed, they couldn't execute properly.
And it's very hard to tell, right?
Like it's very hard to tell in advance who's going to execute and who isn't.
So you actually should kind of spread your bets.
And if you had kind of spread your bets and being like, well, go 20% Avalanche, 20% Solana,
20% ETH, you know, 20% Bitcoin and a bit of everything you actually have done pretty well.
Uh, but I was trying to be the hero and I was like, no, no, what's going to happen
is if there is going to capitulate, I'm going to buy the capitulation.
And then I'm just going to ride that forever because I love Ethereum.
And the reality was far too many people have the same idea.
Far too many people wanted to buy Ethereum.
Um, so it didn't really capitulate. It never really got down as low as it should have gotten.
Um, and then because it never really got down that low, it didn't go up that high.
It became very much a trad by farm of like, you know, people with big money,
like not their own personal money, institutional money was able to scoop
at the lows and then because of that, there was no hype.
There was much less hype around it.
And at the same time, the Ethereum team actually didn't really execute.
Right?
Like they didn't, they said they were going to scale the chain through L2s.
And now like a couple of days ago, you have Vitalik saying like, yeah,
that may be a mistake.
I think we just fucked up the last five years and you're like, dear God.
Like, I mean, in a way, I think given that i had that sort of very bad bias going into this cycle
it's actually a miracle that i didn't lose money like i basically haven't lost money this cycle
right like i lost a little bit bidding uh bidding doge a little bit bidding um monero like late in the cycle but it was like little scratches
compared to just like i i bought bitcoin wrote that up i bought dogecoin wrote that up i bought
ethereum wrote that up sold everything before it dumped like i i did pretty well in terms of risk
management just in terms of you know in terms of like actually hitting a real like you know hitting
for six like really hitting it out of the
park i just swung and i missed on all of the real opportunities which basically the solana trade uh
was and like zed cash was probably another opportunity which i potentially could have
gotten into i mean it's kind of risky but like if you'd bought zedash about six months ago with the idea that like, you know, it's like a decent thing to
have your foot in a little bit for an alt season, then yeah, you would have done pretty well. But
like, it was a tough cycle. And I think my bias, my sort of analysis of how the cycle was going to
go was actually a kind of a bit of a midwit analysis, which is kind of, you know, it's kind of reality can be a bit brutal.
And it just shows how dangerous it is to be to be in the consensus.
Right. It's so dangerous to be in a consensus trade because typically once the trade becomes consensus, it really drastically caps the upside.
And it's like, it's like when a lot of us, including me said, Hey, if Luna
trades below five bucks, it's a, it's, it's a screaming.
Yeah.
But that, that was, that was like, that was like people who didn't actually
understand like how the thing they were buying actually worked and didn't
understand that Luna literally had an automated printer that could print infinity uh tokens um
and there was no way that that that can that could have been stopped right was there like any way was
there any way that that thing could have been stopped like the whole infinite printing tokens
thing well it was stopped eventually it was eventually after it had like expanded the supply
by like three orders of magnitude and they turned it off just because like so many people on binance
kept like throwing money into it and they were like this is just unfair it's like basically
it's basically like a like like literally an abattoir slaughtering cattle because people
didn't understand it so they did eventually turn it off but like yeah it just literally if they hadn't turned it off it just literally would have kept printing new lunar tokens forever um
my goodness but like you know it's just so dangerous just so dangerous to be in the
consensus trade and so i'm going to be a little bit more careful this time i'm going to try and
avoid the consensus i think my read the part the part of my read that isn't really consensus but i haven't really heard
anyone talking about is that most people are not expecting ai to like drastically reshape the world
over the next four years like really drastic shit happening and i i kind of do expect that maybe not
like not like to the level of like,
Oh my God,
it's going to be like living in a sci-fi book,
but to the point where like the entirety of crypto is just all AI all the
time.
And that's like the only thing that people talk about.
And basically it'll become like,
so it'll become such a big deal that AI and crypto will probably sort of merge
into one thing.
Like we're seeing the beginnings of that with,
you know,
Solana and the clawed bots.
And then Ethereum has this,
you know,
EIP 8004 thing.
I don't know whether you guys have heard of this,
but it's basically an online,
an on-chain protocol for,
AI agents to have like a persistent on-chain identity.
Um, so, you know, that people are making moves, but like basically AI and crypto are going to
merge.
It's going to become one thing.
Um, people are going to have these like armies of AI powered bots that are all like, like
basically because, because you can spawn up an army of basically an unlimited number of AI agents.
Um, a lot of things that sort of worked in the past will stop work.
Like you won't be able to do airdrops because it'll just get farmed up the,
up the ass, right?
Like way, way worse than it will with humans.
Like you won't, like you won't necessarily even be able to do
meme coin trenching because like the AIIs will just do all of that.
Everything, everything will start to become a matter of like, you know, can
you prove that you're a real human?
Can you prove if you're an AI, can you prove that you have good intentions?
Because, you know, if you just have people like going around, like clicking
around in crypto, trying to make money, they're all going to get absolutely wrecked by
these AI agents, like, like total wreckage.
And there's also some possibility that these AI agents are going to like
break the internet for a bit.
Um, like they're going to take down some critical infrastructure and we
might have like a little, like a, like a couple of days in step back out and
you know know some absolute
insane like i really do think that is not very consensus but i think it's coming probably like
more towards you know 2030 but it's coming and you can see the sort of you know you can see the sort
of early stages of it starting to bubble up so with with that in mind i think one of the
one of the non-consensus coins
that you could try to buy is world coin um because in like you love that token bro yeah
it's been a dog it's been a dog this cycle the other problem with world coin is like it has an
fdv problem right like they really did work out how to max extract that thing.
But I think if we really do get a collapse and it comes relatively soon,
like within the next three to four months, maybe by maybe, maybe five months,
maybe by say June, we get the bottom, right?
We get the bottom.
Bitcoin's at 30K.
Ether's at like 900.
You know, sentiment is, is absolutely in the gutter it might not be too crazy
to put a decent amount of your stack into world coin just because that is going to that's like
the one token you can really bet on the new ai meta with the problem is it's like not 100 guaranteed
that it'll do well it's more like a i well. It's more like a...
I'd say it's more like a 50-50 as to whether that does well.
Because, again,
the team can fuck up the execution. It can be like
Avalanche, right?
Where, basically, they did
have a shot, but they
fucked it up.
Jeez, dude.
Dude, World of Coin is like
a marmalade, dude. It's like an expired jar of marmalade and
you just want to dip your finger in it and eat the sweetness naka that's the one token you're
like a link maxi dude remember the link marines yeah link link marine but but for um sam altman
you should cto world coin that's what you should do
you gotta CTO WorldCoin
I mean I do
unironically think that WorldCoin
is a coin whose time is about to arrive
because
even today
a lot of the content that you
see online is
AI generated
it won't say that it's AI generated, but it'll be, somebody will post
something and you'll look at the way it's written and the kind of sentences
it uses and stuff like that.
And you'll be like, yeah, this was probably written by AI.
You know, humans don't really write like that.
They don't have that writing style.
And you put it into one of these AI detectors and it'll be like, yeah, it's
all the detectors are saying that's 100 ai generated
this is probably ai and then you go around your favorite content creators and you like start doing
this to them and you you see like about 30 of people already doing this like they they already
don't write their own content they like give they have an idea they type it into chat gpt and they
get they have a prompt they get chat gpt to produce the content. Like a lot of people I know already doing that.
I don't do that, but like, you know, stuff like that hasn't really hit yet, but
you know, imagine in four years, right?
Imagine four years, we get to a point where everyone's using AI for, you know,
basically everything in their life.
And people have like massive bot armies of like hundreds of bots that go
around and do stuff for them.
And when you talk to somebody online,
like you don't even know if it's a real person or an AI,
because by that point,
AI will be able to like fake human voices and human conversations so well
that you really won't be able to tell.
Like in that kind of world,
people might actually start bidding world coin
right like they might actually be like i don't like the orb it's kind of creepy but like i'm
literally confused about what's real and what's not and this is like the only antidote um so it's
it's it's possible right and it's it's possible that maybe that doesn't actually happen but
things get bad enough that people just start speculating on it. Um, but yeah,
I mean,
that's the only thing that I can really put my finger on.
That's like a,
that's like a good catch.
That's kind of non-consensual.
The other thing is,
I don't know if you guys heard of Venice,
you guys heard of the Venice token.
That's that's on base,
right?
That's VV.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I think,
I think Venice might be,
might be one to bid actually.
Why not just buy virtuals, dude?
That's like the ultimate ETF or anything AI.
It's that and Banker.
Okay, I might look into virtuals and Banker then,
but Venice strikes me as quite interesting.
interesting but vvv is just like it's virtual's beta um and i think if you've ever played beta
But VVV is just like, it's virtuals, beta.
you know how it usually works right beta has a small chance at running against the alpha but
it is higher risk right and in bull markets you could lose a substantial amount of money
by playing beta instead of just buying the alpha.
I don't understand why
Venice is supposed to be
the bad one.
But I don't really understand what virtual
starts, so I should probably go look into it first.
Yeah, it was the highest
market cap token on base.
An E-Foundation and Ethereum.
Holy shit, I almost fell off my balcony.
Oh my god.
That was not good.
Wow.
Jeez.
Anyways.
Yeah, you'll like virtuals, Naka.
But, um...
Ches, is there anything else that you want to say?
Just that I appreciate you all spending time with me and everyone who came.
That's all I want to say yeah i'm gonna thanks for coming on man it was a great conversation if anyone in the
audience by the way wants to come up and talk feel free to do so just hit that request button
i'll bring you right on up but if not i think i'm gonna close up the space here. I do see some viewership going down, no requests to speak,
but if anyone wants to come up on the stage and talk, ask any questions, give your thoughts on
the market, anything you want to bring up to our attention, I'm going to go ahead and give it like
a minute or so. Otherwise, I'm going to go ahead and wrap up. So I'm just going to give it a few seconds here.
If you guys enjoy the content, want to come up and ask questions,
just hit the spaces tab and then right to the bottom left,
you'll see a link.
I mean, not a link, a microphone.
Just click that to request and I'll bring you right on up.
I'm going to go ahead and give it like 15 to 20 seconds.
Interesting post.
Interesting post I just saw.
Plan C just posted that he thinks
maybe the bull run isn't over yet.
Yeah, many think that it wasn't over until recently but anyways
i'm gonna go ahead and wrap up here guys if you guys enjoyed the content over the last two hours you've enjoyed the show you've enjoyed the discussions that were being yapped on about here my name's wabi i go live here on the because bitcoin account monday through friday
between 3 30 p.m est to 3 40 p.m est we talk all things markets we talk bitcoin all coins
whether it's price action whether it's narratives fundamental analysis sentiment analysis
whether it's stratify we talk about it all here on market
talk so if you guys enjoyed the content over the last two hours go ahead and give us a follow follow
because bitcoin account follow my personal account here follow naka follow cheds shout out to all of
you guys in the audience thank you all so much for tuning in some market talk i hope you all have a fantastic
weekend and for those of you that are new here we do have some other free content for you guys
we have a youtube show called market check which is hosted throughout the week at 11 a.m est
that is our ta centered show so if you guys are into all things technical analysis feel free to check that out follow our youtube channel and for those of you that are
looking for an inner circle alpha group community we do have a discord where myself and some of our
other people from bb are active on their multiple channels covering all things crypto all things
equities private live streams link to that is in our bio if you
guys have any questions at all in regards to that you can send us a dm whether it's the bb profile
whether it's my personal profile or any of our affiliates send us a dm and we'll get back to you
within 24 hours whether it's questions or any comments that you want to give us
we'll get back to you within 24 hours,
and we'll hook you up with a first month discount.
You can check out our testimonials on our website
in regards to all our products, including our trading terminal.
And the link to that is also in our bio.
I'll go ahead and post one of our pieces of content here up on the nest just go ahead and click the spaces
tab if you want to check out our trading terminal that we've been working on over the last two years
so if you have any questions in regards to our trading terminal or uh our community our private
community you can send the because bitcoin profile with dm or myself or max or Tucker anyone else a part of because Bitcoin and
we'll get back to you within 24 hours so with that being said thank you to knocka thank you to chance
for joining me on today's show and the spaces are recorded as usual so in case you guys want to be
up to date on all things news related we do strive to be one of the fastest pages here on X that posts real time news in regards
to all markets.
So feel free to turn on bell notifications so you can be on alert for that.
And also for our live streams, you can think of us as a one stop shop for all things crypto.
And with that being said, I hope you all have a fantastic weekend.
All glory be to my Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ, for allowing me another day of health to talk markets with you all.
And thank you to all of our new followers that have been tuning into these spaces, interacting with our content.
I hope you guys have found a second home here with us here at BecauseBitcoin.
And I hope you all have a fantastic rest of your Friday or Saturday, wherever you are in the world.
rest of your friday or saturday wherever you are in the world i hope you guys enjoyed today's show
I hope you guys enjoyed today's show.
and once again these shows are recorded in case you guys um missed out bits and pieces of the
show and want to go back same thing with all of our other shows uh so guys take care bye bye thank you Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. . Thank you.
