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Market Talk- Is the bottom in!? New all time highs incoming!? BTFD!!
Recorded: Aug. 20, 2025 Duration: 1:40:19Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. you Thank you. Music Oh Oh I'm just going to make this I want to be perfect I want to be perfect
I want to be perfect
I want to be perfect
I want to be perfect
I want to be perfect
I want to be perfect
I want to be perfect
I want to be perfect
I want to be perfect
I want to be perfect
I want to be perfect I want to be perfect Oh, my God. And in the worst that wave your face I'll do the undertaking
Run yourself beyond a scene
So you carry on
And all you pay
And all you carry
All you pay
And let me see you're wrong
I'm gonna play
I ain't got to play I'm gonna to play this song. I'm going to play this song. I'm going to play this song.
I'm going to play this song.
I'm going to play this song.
I'm going to play this song.
I'm going to play this song.
I'm going to play this song.
I'm going to play this song.
I'm going to play this song.
I'm going to play this song.
I'm going to play this song.
I'm going to play this song. I'm going to play this song. Yeah. Okay. music so Thank you. Oh Oh Rise, go! so guys welcome back to market talk brought to you by because bitcoin i'm your host wabi guys what
an insane setup we have the day before jackson. Crypto prices remain a bit elevated from yesterday's low
while the equity markets are still making these lower time frame lower lows. And I think this is
honestly where we start to see very similar price action as we've seen in the past where
when equity markets outperform crypto, they tend to slide a bit giving crypto
the chance to shine solana has a ton of on-chain activity going on right now a few nine-figure
runners and very very very very well could be on the precipice of another nine-figure runner
as we'll discuss later on in today's show. But guys, happy Wednesday or
Thursday, depending on where you are. I hope you guys are all doing fantastic. We got Jackson Hole
in two days. FedWatch still predicts that the Fed is going to be cutting rates next month.
And I'm sure you guys are aware that the quote-unquote four-year cycle
is uh apparently coming to an end in october so people really want to uh say that the cycle
is going to be cooked when others btc is still barely off the lows that that'll always uh take me for a ride they really think that
all coins are going to be making all-time highs against bitcoin in a matter of weeks and
we all understand during these monetary conditions uh that's that's just not possible at all at least
at least i don't think so i'm happy to i'm happy to be uh surprised if others btc
gets to 0.04 right now it's like barely at 0.012 or 0.013 so it's it's it's really a stretch
to be calling um for such an aggressive move when number one btTC dominance isn't even below 58%. And we've never really seen an
environment in a very long time where dominance goes down by like 20% in a matter of weeks. And
that is before the Fed even stops quantitative tightening. Let's not forget about that. But
guys, today's show, it's probably going to be another quick one, probably like 30 to 45 minutes as there's really not much to discuss until Jackson Hole officially begins tomorrow.
And as a matter of fact, Powell doesn't even speak until Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern.
Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern. But it really seems like crypto, the crypto market is usually the
first market to front run any sort of bearish headline. And we all know that over the last,
let's call it six months, seven months, the real individuals that are telling you how the market
is going to play out, the playbook, as me and Donnie have been mentioning here on these spaces for a few months, is the head of Treasury, Scott Bessette, and Trump.
And they've been telling us that they want to shoot for 6% to 7% GDP, which is honestly insane, insane. And that's even before the NASDAQ composite reaches the
inflation-adjusted high from March of 2000, which would take the NASDAQ composite. The NASDAQ
composite, I'm not talking about the Qs, which is a completely separate product. But I'm talking about the Nasdaq Composite.
That is an easy 50% move from here just to match the inflation-adjusted all-time high for March of 2000. So if we want to talk about growth, then that should be the over the next year. And if we're calling for a four-year cycle top, usually BTC tops around the same time
that the S&P has.
At least it happened last cycle.
But people often forget that the cycle before that, when Bitcoin topped out at 20K, the
crypto market got absolutely destroyed because of these Ponzi platforms like Bitconnect
and these cloud mining companies which extracted tens of billions of dollars from the space
and meanwhile in the equity markets if you take a look at the queues or the nasdaq or the s&p
trad fi still went absolutely ballistic well into the summer of 2018, where there was crypto absolutely melted down and altcoins went down about 99%.
It was honestly insane to see Cardano go from like a dollar a change back to two cents.
That is unreal.
And we didn't really see that much of a correction for most
altcoins during the last bear market. I don't even think Solana drew down 90%. It didn't even
draw down 90%, whether it's Ethereum during its first cycle corrected like 95%. It went from $1,400 down to like 80 bucks. It was insane. And truth be told, with these ETFs
and with Trump and Bessent in charge, I just don't really see majors correcting as heavily
as previous bear markets. But let's go ahead and get started, guys. If you guys can go ahead and
show some love to the space best way you guys can
do that is by clicking the spaces tab and once y'all do that you'll see right above our profile
pictures a nice little link that says x.com slash i slash spaces if you guys can please please please
do me a favor only takes a few seconds of your time. Very minimal effort. If you guys can go on ahead and smash up the like button, raid the like button, raid the retweet, repost button, whatever it is that you want to call it.
Spam the little purple pill or chat box with your favorite altcoin or any questions that you might have or anything that you think we're not seeing in the market feel free to flood the
comment section but go on uh go on ahead guys show some love for the show but without further ado i'm
going to kick it off uh over to donnie kind of kind of get everything uh laid out the foundation
for the discussion and and like i said guys today's show is really only going to be probably like
30 45 minutes max. I really want
to have these shows, especially going into a macro event, be just more of like a quick thought
conversation, not really something that's dragged out about things that you already know, right?
Things are probably just going to go up and to the right for the next few quarters. Quantitative
tightening is likely to end this year. Fed is going to cut. Prices are probably going to go up and to the right for the next few quarters. Quantitative tightening is likely to end this year.
Fed is going to cut.
Prices are probably going to go up.
We all know that stuff.
But without further ado, Donnie, brother, the setup here once again is essentially laid
out as it was in late June.
And we discussed this yesterday and we're like whoa whoa whoa what is going on this
setup right here is almost identical to what happened in late June crypto front-running FOMC
and really front-running what Powell might say during the next meeting and we kind of just pause
equities bled a little bit and then crypto just went off into the races then tried fight caught
up and usually when tried fight catches up and starts outperforming it's usually a correction
for whatever reason the alga was a bit tricky man but what's going on man welcome back to the show
man it's going to be a nice little discussion hey bro thanks for having me back. Yeah, the market's playing out kind of how we wanted
after we were basically stacking up a little bit of confluence
for a correction, essentially.
And we got that on BTC.
It's still not entirely confirmed that the bottom has formed for me.
You're about to test supply above on the BTC chart around 114.5.
You're coming into that right now, but you haven't actually tapped that zone yet.
And there's a few more refined zones in there around about 15.3,
which if you do start getting signs of rejection there,
like you did at the retest of 116.8K,
which basically was just saying you're going to bounce from 115 back up to
116.8, which is the level you lost on this drop and probably gets smacked back down. So we're
kind of having a repeat of that same thing. So don't be surprised if price gets smacked back
down towards 111 to 110 to fully clean up all of the liquidity below. And again, remember that
cleaning up liquidity below is also signal for filling massive buys, right?
So if we see an accumulation start to present itself at those lows,
especially going into a potentially bullish catalyst or a macro event,
then that's just going to stack confluence for a very big reversal, right?
But if we do start disrespecting the supply above at,
what is this?
Yeah, around 114.5 to 115.2.
If we do really start disrespecting that,
then you could potentially have the low point set at 112.4,
or you might just get more WICs just exceeding that by a little bit
and then form your accumulation
right here.
So basically, we're at the bottom proximity of the chart.
So really, any downside here is just either a chance to load up more or just be patient.
And yeah, I think the reversal comes pretty soon, to be fair.
I wouldn't be surprised if it's the Jackson Hole event or some sort of deal with Trump
and Putin that's actually
massive for risk markets. It could be anything, right? The catalysts are always ready when the
conditions are set for a reversal on the chart. So just waiting for the confirmation of the setup.
The best part about this entire drop is that you've literally left lower high after lower high
consecutively from the top, which is just leaving liquidity behind for a squeeze.
That makes for a very quick, sharp reversal that we've seen basically at every single
key pivot point on the Bitcoin chart from the bottom, including the bottom itself.
The 74K lows, you literally had an endless amount of untapped highs that made for a very
sharp reversal of the lows, which catches people who basically, you know, not positioned for the reversal offside
and price just continues to escape, right?
They're hoping for a pullback.
You just don't get it.
Because, you know,
when you're having a liquidation cascade to the upside,
it just makes for, you know,
a very easy pathway for price
to basically go back up to the all-time high, right?
And I think, let me just quit
let me just get the chart real quick so you guys have something to look at i've been sharing the
golden btc overlay you know endlessly i think it's a really good signal and you know again we're
having another technical setup that's indicating uh that it will or that there's a good chance of
a reversal i'll just share it right now. Give me one second.
Sweet, I shared up in the nest.
There's a few charts there.
If you go to the Bitcoin and gold one,
you can see that this dip was actually telegraphed
on the BTC gold chart.
And you guys remember,
I thought that this pullback was actually already set
with the bad economic data on August 1st
and the downtick in the ISM,
but it wasn't right we had
a trickling up in price we had that uh bullish po3 that i shared that would get us back to the
all-time high but we rejected um from the ppi numbers and a lot of uncertainty around the fed
whatever it doesn't matter this was telegraphed already and now we're having sort of that same
you could call it catalyst driven uh drop to where people basically sell the lows
and you're really setting up for a nice reversal
to fulfill that BTC gold overlay,
which essentially gold is just the expansion
and contraction of global liquidity.
Just think about it like that.
BTC lags gold.
We still haven't fulfilled this entire rally to the upside.
We're now making for a very good technical setup for a reversal, and this is
indicating for that reversal. So we know there are catalysts aligned
that can reverse the sentiment, which will definitely reverse the chart.
So let's just wait for the final confirmations of that bottom. It should happen
this week. If not, we might stall out into September until some more economic data
gets revealed or whatever. But ultimately, if we're having something like a global liquidity index
or a gold overlay for Bitcoin, indicating that we're still yet to set higher highs and much
deeper higher highs. And this thing has shown incredible accuracy from the bottom, the bottoming
zone, the pullback at the all-time highs,
the higher high we just had,
all of it has been telegraphed by the gold overlay.
And this thing is indicating another higher high.
We're stacking more confluence for that higher high.
I think it's pretty likely that we are going to get it.
And you guys know, for me,
130k BTC above that and below 58.5 Bitcoin dominance,
you're setting up for a very big
altcoin wave, essentially. And you can see right now, even on this drop, Bitcoin dominance wants
to really rug to the downside. Again, that's giving you signal that the altcoin market will
erupt if BTC breaks that high convincingly, which again, we're stacking up multiple points of
confluence that it's going to happen. I think you're going to end up somewhere around 138 to 182 in between there and form this range that gold
is projecting because you've had DXY basically structurally weak for about
four months below 100, which has basically led to this
chop for gold essentially. So BTC can
overperform when it has those triggers to basically
go deep into price discovery.
You can see that range is very sideways price action for gold.
It wouldn't surprise me if at that second peak that it's telegraphing,
you actually put in a much higher high.
So yeah, again, my targets are around 138 to 182.
But when you're that deep into price discovery,
and you've got the macro alt season charts like Bitcoin dominance,
like ETH BTC headed in the right direction, you're setting up for an altcoin wave it's just that simple
right you lose those key levels on bitcoin dominance uh and if btc continues to uptrend
you're just going to have an old season it's just that simple there's no there's no debate there
the charts are literally telling you uh the trigger that's about to happen so i don't know i think
we've set up really nicely and even i saw today stocks, stocks were lagging this drop. So we know that BTC is front running the moves.
And just like the April lows at 74k, I literally posted on my pin tweet that BTC will hit the
all time high before stocks, just purely because BTC just prices things in so quickly. It's a lot smaller in market cap.
It trades 24-7. And there's a multitude of reasons why. But I think stocks could stall out around
6,300, 6,200, wherever the local bottom is. Maybe it's already set on that wick
until the actual FOMC and starts to curl out of this local price section towards new highs after that.
But BTC could definitely go there first, right?
It could literally happen next week that you start going for those highs.
So yeah, I'll just be watching those low timeframes, see how the setup plays out for BTC.
But yeah, I think crypto could bottom here quicker because even though we had this super
sharp drop on the stock market today, BTC barely even budged to the downside and actually bounced pretty aggressively
so there's a bit of signal there and you know people worrying about um the uncertainty around
the fed are they going to choose inflation or uh the unemployment uh side of things the russell
should be the chart that should get massively impacted
by any sort of confusion there.
And this chart has stayed absolutely solid
throughout all of this, right?
It's barely even pulled back.
You haven't even tagged the demand zone at 2.24-ish.
Haven't even touched that yet.
So clearly, there's a bit of signal
that things aren't going to get as bad
as I guess people are thinking right and I
think obviously as soon as the Fed does actually jump on board with easing monetary policy through
rate cuts and potentially projecting a bunch of them for this year if we do get you know
three cuts projected on that rate projections dot plot I literally think you're going to go directly
up so yeah I don't think the
market's pricing in a giga dove jerome powell we'll see if we get it or not but that is definitely a
very offside trade which again we're stacking up a lot of confluence for a very vertical rally
in risk it could really happen i'm just pretty confident that we bottom here and we'll see how sharp the actual rally is. Donnie, man, what are your thoughts on on-chain starting to get some life here, man?
There's a few assets that aren't that far off from price discovery. And the market really,
really likes to showcase how quickly things on Seoul move, man. And now we have
the potential for Seoul Treasury companies to start to roll out as early as next month, man.
And I think I saw this like data report on my timeline earlier today that over 50% of all USDC activity is now on Solana, which is honestly insane, man.
There's a difference between having a bunch of stables on a chain and then it actually being
used and you actually see activity on the chain. And of course, you have the Pump Fund founder,
Alon, bullposting everything that's on pump swap and like you're actually
starting to see uh some some of the same things that we saw around this time last year yep you've
got uh cabals battling each other to pump their own ecosystems as hard as possible which basically
leads to crime which leads to massive upside so if you get in between that you're going to make a ton
of money um great opportunity in the on-chain market, to be honest.
And you've got alt-season dynamics unfolding
while these people battle it out.
You can trade both ecosystems and make a killing.
So all of these gains that we've had
in the meme coin market, in shit coins,
whatever you want to call it, this entire cycle,
all of that has been in conditions
that aren't textbook alt season
conditions, right? We haven't had that in three years. So if we do get that, which again, the
confluence is stacking up, and we've already had runners going to, you know, decabillions like Pepe,
others going in the high billions. What do you think is going to happen when you've got Bitcoin
dominance nuking below 50%? You're to have that, but on steroids, right?
And the difference is the market is way more inflated than it's ever been.
It's about to inflate even more.
And the special thing about the on-chain markets is these tokens start from zero.
So if you've got a multi-trillion dollar valuation crypto market, and you've got rotations coming
out of the high caps into low caps and it
finds itself into new launches that you know are potentially super hyped up whatever impressive
narratives you name it you can send tokens from zero to a few hundred million a week right so
you just got to be good at finding these tokens and a lot of them that are already setting very
impressive you know metrics when this plays, they're going to continue to perform
like we saw in the Q4 2024 rally.
But again, even that wasn't actual old season conditions.
You had a little bit of a give on the Bitcoin dominance chart, but you had no follow through
to the downside.
And that rally was quickly stopped by the hawkish FOMC on the 16th of December.
So this time you're setting up for a multi-month altcoin uptrend
with a highly inflated market.
I just don't think people are genuinely bullish enough
on how much money you can make
within the span of like two to three months.
But yeah, obviously one of the main ones that I'm in
and continuously bullposting is Bucky.
Simply if you look at that chart, there's nothing on it.
It's a naked chart.
You see a 50 mil wave one high
and a 12.3 mil low,
which is better than honestly 99%
of the biggest runners we've ever had
on the on-chain market.
That's including FWOG that had 720 mil
and a recent one on PumpFun, Troll,
which just recently shot up
to like 250 million or something.
Both of them set a wave one high of around 42 mil and a low of like 9 mil.
So this is outperforming on the upside and the downside.
And it's on the BunkFun ecosystem.
Still hasn't even been endorsed by the actual ecosystem itself, like Troll.
Troll was massively pumped by the PumpFun team to have such an escape velocity rally.
And this char is literally curling up
while BTC has been nuking aggressively to the downside.
And there's been a ton of fear in the market.
I just think literally as soon as you flip
the midpoint of that chart,
which you can see that wick around like 32 mil,
if you flip that,
this thing's going instantly into price discovery.
There's no question about it.
And I think because it's performing better
with literally no
market makers no endorsements from anyone no listings nothing at all when you have all of that
unfold with old season conditions there is no question that this chart should outperform
something like fog which hit uh 720 million within like a couple of months right in the q4 2024 rally
which again worse conditions than uh what's ahead right now.
So I think there's going to be definitely a ton more opportunity as well, but there's already so much out there right now that you can choose from to even a small allocation
goes a massive way in these tokens.
I don't know why people are so kind of against trading meme coins.
If you want to stack more BTC, there's literally no better vehicle in the entire ecosystem
to basically outperform Bitcoin and rotate your stacks into stats.
Very simple.
Tell you what's going on, man.
Hey, what's going on, bro?
It's been a minute.
Welcome back.
Yeah, absolutely.
Appreciate you having me back. I just wanted to kind of talk a little bit about the Jackson Hole thing, actually, because I think it's bizarre in a way that the majority of the crypto ecosystem, including Bitcoin, people are so like they're so on the fence about what Jerome Powell is going to say, as if the Fed is going to have some sort of controlling fashion over what happens in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Now, in the near term, yes, it could create some volatility.
But on the other hand, we all see the writing on the wall.
We see the government positioning to get involved.
We see Argentina talking about paying taxes with Bitcoin and crypto.
We see Brazil having a meeting today regarding their strategic reserve.
We see the US talking about this basically every single
day. Legislation already haven't been put in place and more to come. High net worth individuals
getting positioned to stack in. We see, I mean, the writing on the wall for the crypto ecosystem
is overwhelmingly bullish. So in a bizarre sense, i actually kind of hope that the market does react
negatively to whatever happens because what we're going to see in the coming months and years is
going to be nothing short of absolutely exponentially magnificent and so we should all be
hoping that the market doesn't run away because we want it to go now because we're impatient we
need it now because we're tiktok culture no let's let the market do whatever the fuck the market's
gonna do let it drop i'm buying baby let it shake some people out i'm sorry if you got your feelings
hurt that you bought today and it dropped tomorrow then buy again or get out of the fucking market
right and then when we're looking at the other aspects of the market when we're considering yes bitcoin is the pinnacle asset that everybody should be absolutely focusing
on for their future if you want to participate in other aspects which i do also i do it on a
percentage basis and i i really do think that there's going to be a lot of people wreck this
cycle because they're looking at the historical trends of what they saw in 2017 and then what
they saw last cycle where it was an alt season where you threw a dart at the historical trends of what they saw in 2017 and then what they saw
last cycle where it was an alt season where you threw a dart at the board and absolutely everything
ripped i think that uh there's going to be some sporadic runners across the altcoin market but i
do think that we're going to see uh some pretty large concentrations of capital in uh utility
focused and deployed actual fee generating revenue generating
business models that are out there getting deployed where you know a good concentration
of capital is going to one flow to because they understand that from their traditional finance
models but two because they're going to be generating real business and have deployable
roadmaps that are actually being acted upon
and developed further and better integrations coming in. You know, I could go through a list
of coins, but I don't want to go out here promoting coins. The fact of the matter is,
I think we all need to be very focused right now, hyper focused on anything you are in,
even in the stock market, even in Bitcoin proxies, even in, it doesn't matter what it is,
anything outside of just holding Bitcoin, do it, great.
I'm excited for you, but be smart about it
and do diligence on those other assets.
Understand, is it just a meme
that I'm putting a very small percentage in
and I'm hoping on these things
because it's all hope with memes,
but you can, yes, you can make some quick money,
but it's gonna be one in 10,000, one in 100,000 coins
that are actually going to do something.
So that goes back to the diligence model, right?
We need to not be so worried about what Powell's saying.
We need to realize that not everything's gonna run.
We need to have concentrations of focused liquidity
in our portfolios and areas that we really believe in
because we really
understand them. But I think I do think the four year cycle narrative, I don't want to say it's
over. We won't know that until sometime next year. But I'm leaning on the side of that being the
case. However, because of that, and I think a good portion of the market is kind of going to fall
victim to this, they're going to see a drawdown that we get potentially later this year and say see the four-year
cycle is real and they're going to be waiting for a 50 60 80 percent pullback
in Bitcoin and that's just not going to happen and it's just going to continue
to stair step up into next year. Now all these things can be augmented change
based on what the Fed decision
is. Well, of course, the discourse is on Friday, but really, will we get rate cuts in September?
Will we get a secondary one in October, a third one? All these things right now is at every data
point of contention, PPI higher. Oh, that sucks because now we're showing indications of inflation,
but now we had massive revisions down on the labor force.
Oh, but the minutes.
Everything we have in the data points
of people projecting forward is an uncertain outlook
about what they're going to do.
And then you have the political aspect of it,
of Jerome Powell just getting strong-armed
by the media complex
and through Donald Trump and the administration,
which I'm not calling that out,
but there is that component there.
I don't know what's gonna happen with the Fed,
but I know that regardless of what they do,
whether they cut or not,
the story for Bitcoin, which is no longer a story,
the fact for Bitcoin is only getting stronger by the day.
So whether or not the market
runs away here you know into september october or not it just gives us longer time to stack the
longer it doesn't run so i'm super bullish on what's coming uh i'm a little bit i don't want
to say hedged i'm a little bit i'm hedged in patience let me say that i'm i'm not expecting
anything but every buying opportunity i get on the assets that I really have done diligence on and I really believe, I'm buying every opportunity I can get when we get those drops.
I see Mike, Uncle Mike, in the audience.
Uncle Mike, come on up here, man.
We love it when Uncle Mike comes to join us at TalkShop, man.
Shout out to you and Donnie for that iron call, by the way.
That was –
That's old Mike, bro.
Yeah, that was a beauty, man.
I got in late, but it is what it is.
I'm not an equity trader, man, but, like, I do pay attention to it.
And when I can, I get myself a small portion because I ultimately believe that like if your goal is to just make money, which that's exactly why I'm here, you want to go to where momentum is at.
I'm more of a momentum trader. And right now, the equity markets are also having as much momentum as the crypto market.
But Mike, what's going on, man?
How are you feeling about really just this insane summer rally that we've had?
And I think after this little Jackson Hole meeting, I think it's just going to be back to business as usual.
And we clean up those highs at $124K. But how are you doing, Mike? Did you clock in a 20-mile hike on the mountains? I
know you've been doing that lately, man. I'm in Jackson Hole, yeah. And actually,
I was hanging out with the Fed governor this morning and obviously not giving me any hint on how the vote is likely to go in September.
But as I've said before, I don't think it matters whether they lower rates in September.
In fact, if they don't lower rates in September, I think it might actually extend the bull market,
could actually be more bullish. The setup is just so beautifully asymmetric right now every single
time that the market sells down a little bit it looks so manipulative in nature so i've just been
like besides like eating wagyu burgers and going for runs i've been buying every freaking dip
any little dip that happens i'm freaking all over it this morning i was buying up all kinds of shit i went to get coffee and then i bought like seven million dollars worth of assets um and i'm just going to
keep doing that because um it feels to me like we're about to enter the vertical like the straight
vertical phase and these last little shakeouts are designed to convince the weakest hands that
there's not going to be a rally um and so like
today like i bought up a whole bunch of iShares ethereum uh trust because it's retraced from like
36 to 31 and so i like it again there because i think we're headed to 50 i never touched the
ethereum treasury companies but i started buying sharp link gaming because it's trading right
around right around mnav and they're still adding pretty aggressively.
As I've said before, I don't think you should buy the treasury companies with the soundest strategies.
I think if you're going to speculate in treasury companies,
you should buy the companies that are being the most aggressive.
And so even though I don't view Ethereum as a long-term investment,
I think for the next three to six months it's going to be hard to beat on a risk-adjusted basis
relative to all the other coins further out
that I just don't know how to analyze.
Ethereum is really tied into the stablecoin ecosystem.
Stablecoins are going to be pushed by every politician in the world,
in particular in the U.S., over the next few years.
And so everything is setting up so nicely.
And then in terms of IRN, like, look, we've got earnings.
We're in a bit of a quiet period.
We've got earnings coming up next week.
You know, there's nothing I can really say about the earnings in particular, right?
You'll have to wait and see what the company says over the next week. But what I can say is that I think the company's building a generational-style opportunity.
It's not a trade.
I understand there's momentum in the stock now.
There hasn't been much momentum in the stock in the past two years.
Every time it's rallied, it's gotten slapped back down.
But when I look fundamentally under the hood at what is actually being built there,
it's pretty impressive stuff. And I think we're still in the first or second inning of that story.
And if you look at today, I think there was a 15% reversal from the lows to the highs. So,
you know, I would love to trade iron. I really would. I've said this on the record before. I'd
love to trade options in iron. I would love to trade it in the open market. I cannot.
But I think the benefit, though, is since I have such a large position,
I just don't really care that much mark-to-market day-to-day
because I can see out two or three years
and I can see where this thing is headed.
So, yeah, I'm pretty bullish.
I don't see any need to be hedged right now.
I don't see any need to be tippy-toeing around.
I think the next, call it three to five months,
is probably the highest probability period for the whole cycle
to see parabolic-style gains.
And I don't want to be too cute.
I don't want to be long-short.
I don't want to be market-neutral.
I don't want to be selling calls.
I don't want to be buying puts.
There may be a time for that if we go parabolic.
Like if we are at 180,000 Bitcoin in mid-October or something,
then at that point you'll hear my tone change a little bit.
But right now is not the time for that.
And then the last thing I'd just call out is this dramatic sentiment shift
in the micro strategy community that was culminated last night
with a bunch of spaces and people talking bearishly about strategy,
which I find quite fascinating from a human nature standpoint. Because back in November
last year, when strategy was $535, I was telling people that it was time to trim and be cautious,
and nobody wanted to hear that at that time because it was an unpopular thing to say.
But that was the time to worry about exactly the things that people were talking about
last night. Now is not the time to worry about things that were already in existence nine months
ago. We knew that they were going to keep selling from the ATM. We knew that he was going to keep
doing convertibles. We knew he was going to keep stacking different types of securities in the
capital structure. We knew he was going to use the capital markets to buy more Bitcoin. Now he's doing exactly what he says he's going to do,
and people are capitulating at a sentiment low. I'm not saying strategy can't go to 300 or 250
or 330 could be the bottom. I don't know. But what I'm saying is if you're worried about those
things, you should be worried about those things when there's exuberance not when grown men are essentially crying on spaces about how michael saylor hurt their feelings and
they're down on their purchases and stuff like that so like you just have to remember these
moments like people's real character always comes out in markets over time and i see people that
are just way too emotional about nothing like you when you sign up to do Treasury companies
You're signing up to play the game. You bought the ticket you get the result be a freaking adult
And I see again like adults behaving like children right now and capitulating probably at the bottom
I am in no way recommending buying any particular company and in particular Treasury companies
I think they're largely a dime a dozen, most of them. And I prefer hard asset businesses with a margin of safety where
you could have bought iron two, three years ago for literally pennies on the dollar of the hard
assets. You could have bought 50 cents. You could have bought a dollar of assets for 50 cents with
10X upside. And I was pounding the table on that at the time. And that's a true classic value
investment with growth-like characteristics.
These treasury companies are just speculation, right?
You're using the capital markets when they're open to speculate on the future price of these
assets, which I candidly enjoy doing from time to time.
I just don't understand why somebody would think that it was a good idea to do that when
they're trading at a significant multiple of the balance sheet and then capitulate when we're approaching potential lows in sentiment
so i'd advise people not to do that if you're already in these names you should probably stay
put and in the future be careful about uh you know in periods of exuberance following
and listening to people in these spaces who clearly are not actual professional investors
and are just leading the sheep to the slaughter
what an absolute quick session uh donnie kelly if you guys have anything for mike
feel free to do so it's really hard uh to fall to follow that up to be honest. But it's pretty great to hear you say, Uncle Mike,
the setup is insane,
which is basically what me and Donnie have been saying
for a minute.
And it's nice to have that confluence.
And definitely if we do see BTC at 180K
or even 170K right around that area in two months,
then yeah, that would be quite the exuberance.
I wonder where the equities are.
Just to be clear, I'm not saying,
what I'm saying probabilistically is that's probably not likely,
but if it were to happen,
that would be the time to be thinking about risk management
and de-risking, thinking about the downside.
You don't think about the downside
when you see people capitulating on treasury companies when we we're still mid cycle and nothing's even happened yet.
Right. But you've got to react to what you're seeing around you. Right. If you go out in the
middle of nowhere in the forest and you're not seeing any signs of food and you see a bunch of
bears in a clearing, like don't run out into the middle of the clearing, right? Maybe turn around and try to retrace your steps and find your way back to civilization. And so you got to find your bearing
in markets, right? Like you should have on a point to point basis, a view about where we're headed.
But if the market surprises you and does something you don't expect, then you may have to
reevaluate. I think we're just going to keep consolidating and then leg higher to like 130
140 150 over the next couple months and then consolidate and then leg up into the fall
maybe 175 to 200 end of the year and then potentially if it's an elongated cycle run
above 200 next year that's the most likely scenario but But as I said, if we just go completely parabolic starting tomorrow Then you might have to reassess
Probabilistically the odds that the cycle has actually been pulled forward
So I'm not making a prediction. I'm simply saying that people need to be thoughtful and assess
Based on the signpost in the wilderness, right? You have to assess where you're at
Where the risk factors are where the opportunity is
and right now as i said is not the time to capitulate for example on strategy like
if you wanted to capitulate on strategy you should have been listening to my spaces in november
last year i told you all the heuristics were there for a top in that in that equity at that time and
it was one of the most obvious things i've seen in 25 years. But again, nobody's
interested in doing that type of analysis when it's unpopular. They all want to do it, though,
when it becomes popular. It's very popular right now to say negative things about Michael Saylor.
I don't necessarily have anything positive to say right this moment, but I definitely wouldn't
tilt towards encouraging more negativity at a point where it's actually likely that things are going
to turn the other way. And the only thing that might be driving strategy right now is the price
of Bitcoin. Forget about all the noise about the MNAV guidance and the perpetual preferreds, like
number amount of Bitcoin per share doesn't matter when you have stack securities. Like everyone
should have known that if you just learned that yesterday, you shouldn't be in these stocks,
right? But anybody with any experience investing understands how capital structures work and
understand that the common equity is at the bottom of the totem pole.
And so this idea that you should believe the company's marketing, that they're increasing
your Bitcoin per share, again, if you don't understand that that's not true, then you
shouldn't be in this sector, which I suspect is like 80 or 90% of people.
But if you're already in this sector and you made the mistake of doing something you don't
understand, definitely don't compound the mistake by believing all the negativity at
the lows potentially in Bitcoin for the rest of the cycle, where the thing that will actually
solve the price of strategy is not anything anyone is saying in spaces.
It's literally just Bitcoin going to 150K.
It's literally that simple.
When Bitcoin's 150k, MSTR will be higher. When Bitcoin's 180,000, Bitcoin will be even higher
than that. If Bitcoin goes to 200,000, MSTR will be higher than that. And literally no one will be
talking about anything that they were talking about in spaces last night. And this is just
the way markets work. I hate to say it, but there's just a lot of unsophisticated naive people in
markets particularly public markets i think some of that is is is just human nature right like even
really smart people get uh easily fooled uh by price action um but also there are a lot of people
here that are either just new to markets or primarily operated in private markets and so
public markets are a different thing i've talked to a lot of guys over the years in ypo and other organizations like that super successful and
they're like look i i don't do any public investing because i can't handle the emotions
they're like i do all my investing private all my companies are private and and that's the way i
like to work and that works for them candidly just most people shouldn't be doing publicly
traded uh securities because it's they get whipsawed.
And it's happening again right now.
Yeah, it's a great point, Mike.
Also, I think people get lost in the bubble, the bubble of our circles that we actually run around with in life,
but also the bubbles that we forget that we're in here, even on spaces.
They might see two rooms with some smart people talking about something,
and they think that's the general disposition of every investor in that class.
And the reality is 98% of the people don't even know that that topic is being discussed
or is even something that is of a point of contention.
I think a huge amount of people, especially in crypto, but it's every investable market,
every speculative market, people see price action and they need to come up with the excuses
or the reasoning. They create the reasoning for why that happened. In reality, these markets move.
They move up, they move down. Sometimes it's a liquidity grab. Sometimes it's a large investor
making a move and it scares other people and they say, oh, it's
because of this talking point. This other guy said yesterday on CNBC and it might have zero
relationship to those things at all. All I know is looking at the relationship between supply and
demand and the exponential matrix that we're seeing opening up right now for Bitcoin and the broader crypto ecosystem,
the doors, the capital channels, the empowered legislation, all these things combined.
I see, I mean, just an exuberant phase that is yet to be reached in this market.
And whether it has something to do with the four-year cycle, whether that's just another
narrative we've created ourselves
we have to look at where the price actually is going right now the market structure is overwhelmingly bullish so i'm i'm i'm hinging my entire bet uh with where my money is placed and
hedging or not hedging in this case not hedging at all looking at uh the higher overwhelming higher
probability of price of moving and continuing in that trend
to the upside.
I see black widows in the house too.
I see you got the 100% up there.
But yeah, exciting times we're in right now for sure.
So humans are social animals.
The average person is much more comfortable in a group.
If you take 100 people and you put 99 people on one side of the room and leave one on the
other side
There's an overwhelming urge for that one person to move over to where the 99
people already are because it's very uncomfortable to stand alone and to be a successful
long-term investor and achieve substantial success in public markets investing you have to be the person that's comfortable
Being alone on the wrong side of the room where the 99 percent of people aren't and the reality is like most people just are not wired like
that it's just so much more comfortable to be in a crowd and you see that crowding effect in the way
securities trade like with momentum and you know reflexivity and you see it in these spaces where
like everyone's bullish like way too bullish on micro strategy
Relative to everything else nine months ago and then last night
Everybody's piling on and being too bearish at the wrong time
Right the time to be bearish was when you were alone
You were one of the only people cautioning people about what was happening
It's not when everybody is piling on now. I want to pause there and just say though that I do really respect
Josh Mandel in particular
Because he seems to be one of the only people in this space. That's not afraid to piss off our friend Michael Saylor
Everybody wants the coveted Michael Saylor follow the Michael Saylor endorsement the Michael Saylor invitation
To his house right to the party. sailor invitation uh to his house right
to the party we've all been to his house for parties great awesome but the reality is if
your if your goal is to be a world-class investor you can't care what anybody thinks about you you
can't want or crave attention from anyone you can't want an invite to anyone's party you don't
you can't want to be included in anyone's group. You have to be comfortable being independent. It takes an
incredible amount of work, um, and guts, uh, to basically be willing to offend anyone and everyone
required in order to make the correct decision. And so even though I'm, I'm taking the other side
of, of Josh right now, and that I don't think now is the time to be bearish or to sell strategy,
I do strongly admire his independence. He's one of the only people in the space that I've seen
who's willing to actually like piss off Sailor and say the things that need to be said.
And so I want to, I just want to say that there's a lot of nuance here, right? Like you can disagree
with somebody on markets, but not, you know, like impugn their character, right? And so I disagree with people about markets
all the time. But I do notice when people are acting independently, it's just so few people,
right? It's most people, like in my experience, like 99% of people that I watch for any prolonged
period of time on X, they succumb to basically groupthink. And so whatever the price of an asset is saying at the time, they believe that because they
don't actually have a fundamental thesis.
They don't actually have like a view that supersedes what everyone else believes or
that's strong enough to fight back against the tsunami of the opinions of the masses.
And so when you do find somebody like Josh Mandel, even when he's wrong, which we all are
from time to time in markets,
I do follow those people more
just because I'm curious to see
what opinion will be staked
that will not be recognized in the moment to be correct,
but will be recognized a year from now to be correct.
And so anyway, that's the value of independent thinking.
I don't think it's possible to beat the index, right, to post exceptional like Stan Druckenmiller type returns over 30 or 40 years investing unless you have that fiercely independent streak. And again, in my experience in participating in these spaces, it's like 1% of people.
submitting these spaces, it's like 1% of people.
It's kind of like lifting heavy, don't you think, Mike?
Everyone says, oh, don't go too crazy.
You need a coach.
You need a whole team around you.
When the reality of it is you just have to grab your nutsack and be a man.
And everyone has their own journey.
I know when I was first working towards thinking to myself, hey, I want to bench 500, right?
And I finally reached that point where I could bench 500.
I remember as I was getting stronger, they were like, ah, lobby, be careful.
You might tear something.
The human body is not meant to do that.
And in these markets, if you were to talk to just anyone, anyone in a public setting, could be a gym, could be at work or whatever.
And you were to you were to describe these kind of returns, even in the stock market, they'd look at you like, oh, are you sure it's not a scam?
Are you sure you're not going to lose all your money?
And the common person still does not even know that TradFi is actively bidding Bitcoin through ETFs.
And right now, Bitcoin is trading at a market cap of two plus trillion dollars. And quite frankly,
I've never seen an asset worth that amount that has gone to zero ever. Correct. Anyone can correct
me if if if I if I stated something wrong there. And Mike, you know,
when I look at something like an NVIDIA and Bitcoin, NVIDIA is worth almost 2x by market cap
in regards to Bitcoin's market cap. And I think there's a huge trade to be made there,
perhaps even a catch-up trade where BTC and NVIDIA trade close to parity and market cap, which would take Bitcoin right now to just over $220K, something like that.
And yeah, just something to note there, man.
You've made these comparisons before between Bitcoin and equities.
And I like you and I respect you.
And so I'm not going to beat you up too much over but I just don't think that
It matters like I don't think it's a good comparison. Do I think Bitcoin will outperform Nvidia looking forward? Absolutely
Bitcoin has the tam of all the world's money and Nvidia is already struggling to find
People to sell liquid cooled chips to because there's no liquid cooled capacity
Right hence my bullishness on on iron and others that can actually bring liquid cooled capacity for the liquid cooled blackwells in the next six
months no one can do that like nvidia's biggest problem is not that there isn't demand for ai
it's there's no physical infrastructure available that for those those chips to be plugged in so at
some point the customers stop buying them because they have nowhere to put them and so if you're
buying nvidia at four trillion when it's like the most consensus investment in
the history of the planet, then you should expect to underperform looking forward. There's nothing
to say about what already happened. It already happened. Like, of course, owning NVIDIA has been
a great investment over 20 years, over five years, over 10 years, over the last 12 months, etc.
That's what we already know the question is what
are the probabilities about what happens in the future and i agree with you that bitcoin's better
than nvidia but i wouldn't short nvidia or do a pair trade or even necessarily compare them because
i don't think they're the same thing i think bitcoin's addressing a totally different opportunity
set long term now where they are competing and where they are maybe even synergistic is that the energy
infrastructure layer, because there's only so much power, there's only so much good power
at reasonable prices and like good geographies where that power can be used consistently
across time.
And what's happening in the United States is that a huge amount of that power is being
locked up by AI to support this massive growth in
supercomputing, basically required, right, to support AGI and robotics, et cetera, like
self-driving cars.
It's a big reason why Terawolf Steel is so valuable, right?
They've got data centers in New York that are going to power like Waymo, right?
Waymo's network in New York City is going to be powered by TerraWolf's data center.
Again, something that was somewhat predictable if you were following the space, but like
most people don't even know this has happened yet.
And so like the power is being sucked away to power data centers that are plugging in
NVIDIA chips.
And Bitcoin also needs power in order to scale over long periods of time. And a lot of the
power that NVIDIA needs their customers to be able to access is controlled by people that are using
it, at least today, partially to mine Bitcoin. So I think these are the two most important
megatrends probably in all of human history. And they're converging in this massive power squeeze that's happening centered
in the epicenter of it is in the middle of our country, right?
In Texas and Oklahoma and places straight up through the middle where there's a lot
of power that has no immediate utility today but can be used for data centers.
for data centers. So that's the most important thematic, I think, for the next 20 years.
So that's the most important thematic, I think, for the next 20 years.
It's where the convergence of these megatrends ultimately finds its base. And so that's why
I've been spending so much time on it and why I basically ignored the masses of people over the
last two and a half years who came into these spaces and said those were bad businesses. It's
like, yeah, I listen. I'm not going to be overly dismissive
of people that don't know what they're talking about when they haven't studied it. They don't
understand the power demands. They don't understand what NVIDIA's customers need.
They don't understand how much power Bitcoin requires. And they're just looking at charts.
And so they see a stock price going down and say, oh, that must be a bad business. Like,
that's fine. People are easily fooled all the time. But this is a 20 or 30 year,
maybe a 50 year story. And it's all playing out at the energy infrastructure layer.
And so this is the this is the first inning, maybe the second inning. I mean,
I think we're going to see some significant fireworks coming up here with Terrowolf Steel
last week. I mean, the stock doubled in like two or three sessions. How find me,
find me other stocks in the last week when macro has been weighing on the markets that
have doubled.
And I actually don't think it's done.
Like, I think Tara Wolf, the CFO, made a great argument on stage yesterday here at Jackson
Hole that the stock should double or more from here just based on the intrinsic value
of the megawatts that they control.
So I'm pretty bullish here.
I think if you just look at the CapEx going into infrastructure for AI and the CapEx going
into infrastructure for Bitcoin, it by itself could carry the S&P.
It could carry the broad market for another year or two, maybe longer.
And so just another reason not to be too bearish too soon.
So just another reason not to be too bearish too soon.
Hey, Donnie, man, you were unmuted before I passed it on over to Mike
when I asked if anyone had anything to bring up to Mike's attention, man.
You're free to do so, bro. Go ahead, man.
Yeah, this is why it sucks being the first speaker
Yeah, this is why it sucks being the first speaker
because Mike always comes in late and misses the whole cook.
But nah, it's nice to always cross-reference Mike with his outlook
because the dude's got 25 plus years in these markets.
And when you've got that much time and you're that successful,
you learn skills that you just can't teach basically to anyone else.
It's basically just tons of experience. You have a well-trained
gut over time. Your intuition basically just outcompetes everyone else. And then when I look
at the technical setup on the Bitcoin chart from this high, which again, I've kind of just
posted the setup on Sunday, kind of saying how we're going to take out these lows purely because
there was so much confluence stacking for this dip, which ended up playing out. I'm seeing the perfect technical
setup again, like the April lows on a much lower timeframe that is setting up for a very fast
reversal. So again, I'm looking for a bottoming structure over the next five days. If we do have
that playing out, you've left so much liquidity above for a squeeze to
basically price people out who are you know not positioned for this move once again just like the
74k lows so you know we've got these uh potential bullish catalysts ahead with uh trump and putin
potentially coming to a deal with something uh being said the FOMC or the Jackson Hole meeting.
Who knows what it is? But when I see this technical setup, I always lean into something
that's going to flip sentiment bullish to just carry price to where it's pretty much destined
to go with the setup. So we've got that gold overlay again, projecting a much higher high
than the 124k we just put in or 123, whatever it was. And everything is just stacking up for the sharp reversal. So I think it's happening
within the next four weeks. And the gold overlay is basically projecting a range to form
where you're going to have ETH and the altcoin market really go berserk because you've got those
altseason charts, a very high timeframe chart set setup on Bitcoin dominance on ETH BTC headed in
the right direction, literally hanging on by a thread into the direction that we want, where if
this technical setup plays on BTC, it's just all going to happen at once. And again, it's like,
it almost is perfectly setting up for that final shakeout, which basically, you know, leads to that
classic series of events of disbelief,
renewed optimism, FOMO, and euphoria. Not that it's going to be a euphoric cycle top. That's just
the natural sequence of price action that I think we're about to basically confirm here over the
next five days or so. Could stall out until FOMC, but honestly, this chart setup, you just can't fade it.
Yeah, I really like your view on that. And even though
I don't spend most of my time trying to figure out what's going to happen in the very short term,
I do notice the open interest stacking up for September 19th, which is just over four full
trading weeks out. So I think there's a lot of people positioning for upside in that window and I've continued to
even as unpopular as it is and as much shit as I've gotten for it I've continued to
to buy November the week before Thanksgiving November I bid calls I kept I keep adding I've
got 12,500 contracts of one of these strikes. It's heavy.
It's either going to be like a $5 million or $10 million gain, or I'm going to lose like a million and a half on that position.
And that's fine, because if I take like 20 of those bets over the course of 10 years, I don't need to be right that often with that type of asymmetry.
I can be right 40% of the time and still make a lot of money as long as a couple times that I'm right, I'm really right.
I just don't see how Bitcoin doesn't make a sharp move up in that window.
It gives you about three months to Thanksgiving.
So you've got three months.
The full month is late September, October, November.
like late September, October, November.
You've got three months to see that.
And I actually agree with Donnie
and think that we'll see some significant part of that move
maybe in the next four weeks.
And so certainly if you own calls, right,
you've got to take some profit
because you will see more decay if like, for example,
say Bitcoin runs to 150 between now and September 19th,
but then pulls back to 130, right?
You could be up a lot,
right, at 150, and then you could be down again on those calls because of the theta decay as you
get closer to November. And so, look, I think it's a high probability setup. It's not a trade I take
that often. But in the year after the halving, at this stage in the liquidity cycle,
with all of the positive catalysts stacked up, again, when I'm very occasionally taking this
type of trade, I want to take it in this type of environment. And my target for that is something
like a 5 to 10x return, which then justifies taking the risk of like a zero or near zero and zero outcome and of
course as always not financial advice and people need to size appropriately i i go on the record
repeatedly i'm not sure anyone hears me but if you're going to use options i recommend no more
than one to two percent of overall capital deployed into that type of strategy if you're
if you're selling options it's a little bit different, but
I prefer at this stage of the cycle to try to capture the convexity via buying
the options because I think it's highly likely that Bitcoin makes a sharp move higher over the
next couple months. What's the price that BTC needs to hit for that to be a winning trade?
To go into the money, it's like in the 150s. But I don't think it needs to go into the money it's like in the 150s uh but i don't think it needs to go into the money
because right the the move to one depends on when right if if in the next four weeks
bitcoin were going to 130 140 those options are going to be highly profitable and then you have
you have the option to sell them early and take some profits and maybe reduce the size of the
position i think i'm going to play it for the
for the whole three months basically though like i i think you could get to right on the 90 calls
i could see a scenario where ibid's 100 to 110 um spot right and so then the intrinsic value
of the options by expiration could be 10 or 20 bucks and they're trading at 50 cents or something right now right
and so if you wait until today to buy them and you had the guts to hold them and until expiration
that's how you get a 20x now you're not getting a 20x for free you're getting it with a tremendous
risk of losing all of your money on that particular position but again if you have a portfolio like
if you take 20 of those setups over 20 years, like once a year, every time you see like a highly convex setup like that, you may be wrong 12 out of the 20 years.
But in the eight years, you're right.
Your returns dwarf the 12 years where you're wrong and your net profits are something like 30 or 40 percent annualized, which is the type of CAGR you need to become a billionaire.
which is right the type of kegger you need to become a billionaire it's the type of kegger that
soros and and drunken on those guys achieves you know over 30 or 40 years consistently and so it's
not comfortable right like like austrian style investing like high asymmetry style investing
requires you to be willing to lose money in situations where you had positive expected value but in that one iteration of the
outcomes you didn't achieve success right so you you you constantly take the same bet with a positive
expected value 50 times and even though it doesn't play out all 50 times your net return is still
highly positive and i just think this is one of those one of those times where you take the bet.
You don't take this bet every three months, right? But you take it now.
Because I do think, again, this is the highest probability period for multiple reasons why
Bitcoin should make a move.
And I do think that if there is a move, you'll know by mid-September.
So if we haven't seen any move up by, let's call it mid to late September, then you could take a partial loss if you want and reduce the size of the exposure.
But I suspect we'll know a lot more in the next couple of weeks.
Yeah, I got two things to say to that.
First of all, it reminds me of basically meme coin trading.
The way that I do it is I find basically the exact pivot point in the broader market to where I can hit meme coins that are massively sold off,
let's say like 90% down or something like that, size in heavy at the lows. And then when the
broader market erupts, that coin is going to do 50 to 100x. And then it sounds very similar to what
you're saying is it's super high risk. But if you get the correct pivot point right, you can
massively benefit from that. And like you said, you could fail 10 of these in a row and one of them takes you out the mud and way beyond what you lost. So it's kind of
interesting to hear that because I don't trade like options or anything like that. But the second
thing that I'd say is basically what the chart's telling me and I don't want to sway your decision
making with that trade or anything. But the way that I see it is that we're basically, if this
chart plays out, which again, I can't confirm it until the next three or five days passes,
we're basically setting up an accumulative,
local accumulative price action
around 110 to where we are right now.
If that confirms and crosses a certain level on the chart
where I think there's going to be massive follow-through
because of the liquidation cascade to the upside,
it's likely driven by a catalyst, right? So I'm thinking somewhere around this Jackson Hole
meeting, we're going to rally all the way until FOMC. Let's say it's kind of making sense that
perhaps at this Jackson Hole meeting, there's a setup or some sort of signal that's giving the
market that there will be a double shift FOMC. Market's going to appreciate greatly all the way
hitting into FOMC.
And then that's actually where we form a range where BTC might pull back a little bit and just trade sideways for a bit.
So you could really rip for the next three weeks after this week all the way until FOMC
and then kind of range where altcoins end up having their follow through because Bitcoin
dominance is really hanging on by a thread.
If it loses 58.5%, I think there's going to be big
follow through to the downside, which doesn't mean that BTC can't go higher. It just means that the
alts are going to really take over on that two to three month period that Bitcoin ends up ranging.
But yeah, again, it could still rally beyond the FOMC for a little bit longer. But that's kind of
how I'm viewing it is we get some sort of signal here with this technical setup and you just absolutely V reverse straight to like 150 or something like that by the FOMC.
Donnie, it's kind of like what Bitcoin has been doing here locally. Bitcoin has been ranging for
about a month now, whether it's ETH BTC has been absolutely giga chatting every single week, week by week.
And we called that bottom yesterday and ETH BTC is up like six, seven percent on the day.
And as we've been saying, man, the playbook, it's unreal and it's unfolding.
And I've actually gone up ahead and put something up on the nest for a schedule.
This is the official schedule for the remainder
of the year uh btc hitting 180k eth hitting 10k and the number one metric that i still don't see
on my timeline and i really don't know why it's honestly quite dishonest why people aren't
mentioning this and they still have the nerve to say um all this cycle sucks so
much it's because others btc has barely bottomed others btc bottomed out in june and people have
the audacity to say i don't know why this cycle sucks so much like bro the entire market has
barely bottomed against btTC for a few months.
And the biggest point of reference that I've been telling people for months now is just take a look at the way Bitcoin bottomed out. When Bitcoin bottomed out at 15K, we didn't do anything for months.
We had a little spike in January after that CPI reading.
January, after that CPI reading, we pumped to about 20K and then did nothing until like
late February, where we pumped to 25K.
We had a nuke to 19K, a huge candle to like 31, and then did nothing for months.
So it takes time.
And Bitcoin at that time still had a higher valuation than, I think Bitcoin at that time still had a higher valuation than I think Bitcoin at that time still had a higher
valuation or roughly the same valuation. I could be wrong by like 20%, but it's not that far off
from where others BTC valuation bottomed out at. So it takes time, man. Definitely,
it's going to take some time, but I do think others BTC is going to get some wind behind its skis later on this year.
But Mike, go ahead, man. I saw you off the air.
I was just going to say, I made this point a few times, including on Scott Melker's little live stream last time I was on there.
we're up from 16 K to a hundred and 14 or whatever it is right now on Bitcoin
it's been one of the most painful crypto cycles of all time because of the way
and which it moved up right so like a lot of people got whipsawed out in the
spring of 2023 because of Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate and signature at 25
then there was this long consolidation period that went all the way through the summer to October
Bitcoin was still 26k in October
And if you join spaces if you made the mistake of
Doing the whole group thing thing and joining the spaces with the so-called smart traders in October
2023 they were telling you that it was going lower at 26 just before it ripped to 40
Then they approved the ETF and instead instead of going up, like everyone thought, first it went down.
And Arthur Hayes was saying he was buying puts and traders again turned bearish. And then it ripped
to 73 before the halving, confounding the people who said Bitcoin couldn't make a new high before
the halving. Then people thought, OK, well, the ETFs live and Bitcoin 73K, it's got to go straight
to 100, right? Nope. Consolidated all summer long, even with all the bullishness around Trump and regulatory changes,
and didn't break out again to new all-time highs until the night of the election, right? When
everybody was stressed and didn't know how that was going to play out. And there's all this
uncertainty. Breaks out to 100 in early December, everyone's like, okay, now it's blue skies,
right? Nope.
We topped out on the morning of the inauguration before anyone even woke up out of bed in late January at 109K and went all the way back down to 74 at the lows in late March, early April.
And so if you don't have extreme levels of conviction on like a point-to-point basis across two or three years people won't admit this publicly
but so many of the people that are active in these spaces have sold their bitcoin like seven times
because they follow traders and they listen to too many dumb spaces with speakers that don't
actually have any real experience who are whipsawed by sentiment and emotion and short-term trading and
people posting charts and it's all bullshit? None of it helps you make money.
And so, yes, we're up 6X, 7X, right?
But most people feel like they're down.
A lot of people came into the cycle thinking
that they were going to make money in shit coins
and meme coins, and very few people have.
It's like when you go to the casino, right,
and you double your money or triple your money
real quick at roulette.
The longer you stay, the more likely you are to lose it all back and then lose your original
principle and the same thing happens in markets which is why like even though i talk about things
that i do um i'm trying to be careful about that because like look i i do own some ethereum but i
never like actively recommend it because i have no idea whether Ethereum will still
have value in 10 years. That said, I do have extreme levels of confidence and conviction that
Bitcoin will have more value in 20 or 30 years from now because of its structure, right? And
part of the structure that matters is proof of work. What drives proof of work? Energy consumption,
right? So when all the kids over the last two and a half years were rotating
out of so-called miners to buy treasury companies at the peak, I sort of chuckled to myself and said,
I guess these people don't actually understand how Bitcoin works. They don't understand that
the thing that makes Bitcoin different is that it uses energy and is tethered to the real world.
You could delude yourself for a period of time, right? Markets have a tendency to move in a
way that confounds people for a long period of time. But eventually, physics, gravity, reality
actually comes back to bear on asset prices, right? And we're seeing that now, right? Like
the returns on micro strategy since November are deeply negative, right? The returns on MicroStrategy since November are deeply negative.
The returns on MicroStrategy over the last few months are flat to down.
But you have companies like TerraWolf that have literally doubled in the last week, and they're probably just getting started.
Because that asset is systemically undervalued relative to the other things that have been pumped, again, by momentum, not by fundamentals.
So people just need to be careful, right?
It's tough, right?
This cycle has been quite hard.
It wasn't hard to make money if you just bought and held Bitcoin, but very few people actually did that from the bottom of the cycle.
Most people got whipsawed, and most people who got whipsawed won't admit it, that they
And most people who got whipsawed won't admit it, that they sold at 25 and then piled back in at 70.
sold at $25 and then piled back in at $70.
But it explains a lot of the anger, the emotion, the hate in these spaces.
Because a lot of people are just taking out their own feelings of insecurity and their own feelings of hurt
and feeling like they got duped and they got screwed.
And they take that instead of processing it
and recognizing their own frailty
and their own inability to control their emotions,
they forecast and project that onto other people
who are completely unrelated to their decision.
But again, that's human nature also.
There's a tendency to blame others for their own decisions.
I think a good way to kind of summarize that, this is
the cycle of broken expectations. On the one hand, the markets performed incredibly to the upside
if you just zoomed out and looked at it. But with BlackRock filing the first application for the
ETF, that changed the nature of what people were expecting in the
market. And then when the ETFs all got approved and launched the next day, we had incredible,
obviously, incredible appetite from corporations, as well as just dollars going in buying those ETFs.
And then, of course, the market, what happens, you know, as soon as the run-up into the ETFs, there is a sell-off right after. But that wasn't
too deep. But then we get the new all-time high before having, which confounded every technical
trader because it said this shouldn't happen. This must likely be a cycle like we saw in 2019,
where you had that intermediary bull run, bear run, and then the parabola. Everybody kept wanting the parabola and forgetting
that institutions are arriving and there's overwhelming expectation, especially then that
all gets compounded with the fact that we get a crypto-friendly administration that gets elected
and then voted into office. And so everybody keeps expecting all these things are going to be the
thing that send the parabola and reality sets in. What we've actually been doing is building these frustrating for some, for most really,
these stair steps.
And the stair steps aren't just you zoom out, they look easy.
Man, I would have made money if I bought lower.
Well, most people have been losing money that have been trading because they're not prepared
for like we saw, what was it, seven months last year,
where the price was oscillating $14,000, $18,000, $20,000 to the upside back and forth.
And everybody just wants to parabola. We just want to be rich quick. And it's like,
well, that's not what Bitcoin's for, one. And two, this has been the market that goes back to that famous saying. I posted it yesterday or this morning, I think. The market
remains irrational longer than most can remain solvent. That just sounds like, oh, just another
saying. Well, this market has proven that to be true because it is melting to the upside. It's
just doing it in a choppy fashion on the way up there, shaking out people that have expectation
versus a plan. It's been interesting to watch and i've i've
been chopped out in some small senses on a few alt projects but i just can't i just keep narrowing
down further further further concentration into just conviction plays and remembering my timeline
doesn't matter at all to what the market's going to do. You've got to extend the timeline.
That was, that was fantastic. That was spot on. Kelly guys,
thanks so much for having me. I got to get back to it.
I'll talk to you guys later. Enjoy the rest of your session.
Mike, what an absolute cook session, man. Thanks for coming on.
I was actually planning to just make the show about 30 to 45 minutes,
but then I saw you in the audience and here we are, man,
room filled with over a thousand people and quite an amazing discussion, man. Quite the conversation. So Mike, thank you all so much. And guys,
if you are enjoying this conversation
i want to keep up with uh what we do here follow everyone up on the panel follow follow follow
we go live here on x bases throughout the week usual start time is between 4 30 p.m est to 4 45
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So I'll pass it on over to Ragsy before we wrap up here.
Ragsy, what's going on?
No, it's good.
I didn't want to interrupt them because they were so good.
I have actually never heard that. No, it's good. I didn't want to interrupt them because they were so good.
I have actually never heard that gentleman speak before in your spaces. I don't believe it was so great.
It was so fantastic.
But yeah, thanks for having me.
I know we're wrapping up, so I'll make it quick.
Yeah, I just agree with so much of what Mike was saying.
I agree with a lot of what Donnie was saying.
And I think like the thing to
watch out for, for this alt season, if you don't have your alts in play is something I personally
warned my following on is don't expect like institutions to buy your bags just because it
was a thing in 2021 or before, because I'm predicting you're going to see a lot of these giant tech companies,
they're going to want to launch their own blockchains and their own tokens. And I think
that's going to be during like the meat of altcoin season. And I think that people are thinking,
you know, if they have their top 100 altcoin that these institutions are just going to pour money into those coins.
And I actually only believe that's true for a select few altcoins, ones that are relevant, ones that are, you know, working with governments and things like that.
I don't think that's going to be across the board, especially for layer ones.
So, you know, I know a lot of people are holding their layer ones from last cycle.
That's because we were in a layer one bubble. We're not in a layer one bumble this cycle. So
yes, like high cap layer ones will pump, but they're not going to astronomically pump like you've seen in the past.
Just like meme coins, narratives are important with altcoins.
And the leading narratives for the altcoin season are going to grab all the money,
and those are going to determine which ones are really, really going to give you the most X's
and which ones are just going to pump a know, pump a little bit. But I
think there's definitely a narrative shift with all coins this cycle, much different than last
cycle. And I think that people should be aware of that because if you're holding your layer ones
from last cycle, I don't think they're going to pump as hard as they did last time because
there's more competition in the market.
And the ones with the best partnerships, that's who you're going to see grab most of the liquidity.
But Wabi, I know that you're wrapping up.
It was so good, though.
I loved what everybody had to say.
It was really, really amazing.
Yes, ma'am. official wrap-up time um actually gonna go to church right now here in a
bit so uh donnie i want to thank you for coming on man what an insane cook sesh man i've gone ahead
and uh posted one of the cleanest charts out in the space right now donnie and i'm in agreement with you and uh guys
by the way when you tune into these spaces please do yourselves a favor and check out what is posted
up on the nest it gives a visual visual presentation of what we're speaking about and of course
adds in uh more perspectives to what we're yapping on about so i've gone ahead and uh posted the
bucky chart using bb terminal one of the cleanest things that you can use by the way guys uh for all
things markets go ahead and follow the bb terminal page it is on in on our bio you can check out
degen completely free to use and we will be going live with on-chain trading
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please please engage with everyone's content that is posted up here on the nest and i want to thank
you guys so much by the way for tuning into the show what an an incredible, incredible turnout. I honestly thought it was just going to
be me, Donnie, and Kelly up on the show, but you guys really showed out today. Honestly,
the support is overwhelming, and I just want to thank you from the bottom of my heart, and
I want to give thanks to my Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ, for allowing me the opportunity to talk markets with you all and also for the health to be active in these markets and to learn from all of you that are up here on the panel with me and that. And I'm looking forward for what's to come
over the next few years and decades for this brand
and for all of you that tune into our shows.
But yeah, guys, feel free to check out all the links
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We do have a Discord group
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And all those private live streams are recorded in a separate channel.
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get back to you within 24-7. But thank you all so much. What an incredible, incredible,
incredible cook sesh. Probably one of the best spaces that I've hosted in a while. And honestly,
just grateful, grateful for each and every single one of you. So take care, guys.
God bless you all.
And we'll see you all tomorrow here on X Spaces at the same time.
So take care, everyone.
God bless you all.
Bye-bye. so
Okay. Thank you. Musicおやすみなさい。 A real hero and me
And a real hero and me
Back against the wall in arms
With the strength of a million to cause
And your souls are called outstanding
But the motion becomes left
We can't disagree on stopping claims
What's your actions Into the days
And then
I feel
To be a real human being
And a real hero
Real human being
And a real hero Oh I'm a human being I'm a real hero
Real human being
I'm a human being
I'm a human being
I'm a human being
I'm a human being
I'm a pilot on a Cocoa ball, 155 people on the floor.
I say fans are rescued from the slowly sinking ship. Oh A human being, and a real hero.
Real human being, and a real hero.
Real human being, and a real hero. Oh Thank you. .
