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MARKET TALK: Is the bull market over!? BTC 75k soon!? CPI hits 2.5%?
Recorded: Dec. 18, 2025 Duration: 2:50:34Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored the potential for a 'Santa Rally' amidst mixed sentiments in the market. With CPI numbers showing a drop to 2.6%, there is optimism for growth, particularly in projects like Hyperliquid. However, concerns about Solana's decline and the absence of a traditional holiday rally highlight the challenges facing altcoins. As traders navigate these trends, the focus remains on long-term growth opportunities in the evolving crypto landscape.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. so Oh, yeah. Oh I'm not sure what you're doing. I'm not sure what you're doing. I'm not sure what you're doing.
I'm not sure what you're doing.
I'm not sure what you're doing.
I'm not sure what you're doing.
I'm not sure what you're doing.
I'm not sure what you're doing.
I'm not sure what you're doing.
I'm not sure what you're doing.
I'm not sure what you're doing.
I'm not sure what you're doing.
I'm not sure what you're doing. I'm not sure what you're doing. Oh Music Oh
Harry I'm going to go to the back of my life. I'm going to go to the back of my life.
I'm going to go to the back of my life.
I'm going to go to the back of my life.
I'm going to go to the back of my God. Oh, my God. Oh, my God. Oh, my God. Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God. Oh, my God. Oh, my God. Oh, my God. Oh, my God. Oh, my God. Oh, my God. Oh, my God. so so
all right I Thank you. It's the Raiden! He is the crowd!
Beating down and broke down!
Come on, where's you down?
Overload of all the stumbles
Keep it round and heavy
From all alone
I feel the humble
I don't want your pride!
You care!
You care!
You care! You care! your
you you
guys Oh, my God. Oh, my God. Oh, my God. Oh, my God. Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God. Oh, my God. Oh, my God. Oh, my God. Oh, my God. Oh, my God. Oh, my God. Hey Yo, what's going on, guys?
What is going on?
Now, I understand we have some people that have some issues with the title of the space for the show today.
All time high soon.
CPI comes in cool.
Is the bottom in?
Well, perhaps I'll say this, right?
Perhaps a local bottom is in for the Santa Rally to start.
Now, you might be asking yourself, Wabi, you're insane.
This is actually insane.
How is the bottom in? There is no bottom, not in a bear market.
Well, the thing is, in a bear market, you do have some vicious rallies.
And I'll say this, right?
maybe the ghost of CPI comes back.
Maybe the GOATS of CPI comes back.
CPI actually came in with some pretty good numbers,
specifically with Core.
Core was expected to come in at 3%.
We hit 2.6%.
Maybe this is Bull Cope.
Maybe it isn't.
I woke up feeling, honestly, a lot better, man.
I'll tell you what.
If you ever feel like really sick guys say you have a
say you have a migraine you're stuffy uh you have a fever i would honestly suggest getting hooked up
to an iv uh for a while take some antibiotics uh Prometheus recommended I fast.
Because I was getting better.
I actually did a fast.
It lasted about close to 24 hours.
A little over 24 hours, actually.
I probably had the timing a bit off.
Probably more like 30 hours, something like that.
But honestly, I feel a lot, lot, lot better.
So hopefully the market picks
up on that right lobby's feeling better maybe let's get some green candles in even if it's just
a little sad bounce of like 89k right 90k and it's it's it's really it's really something when
you have tesla trading at all-time highs and BTC actually made fresh local lows in retrospect from way we actually did make fresh local highs at 94.
And I mean, anything below 90K is just you're kind of in a grave zone, incoming grave zone.
And speaking of grave zones, we do have Solana.
It actually broke below 120 earlier today.
And yeah, that thing's probably going to like sub 100 if I'm being completely honest here.
We also have Hyperliquid also just dying off.
And it's really weird.
Hyperliquid's trading near $20.
But you have sentiment a lot lower on the hype side relative to when it was trading at $9.
And I know one of our guys, Sully, some people call him Tommy.
I don't know why.
Some people call him Snorlax.
I don't know why.
When I think we should all be respectful and his real name is actually Sully.
And Sully was saying how Hyperliquid trading in the teens would be an area of interest for him.
And honestly, if you're bullish on crypto in general as an asset class, then you know how big the perpetual market is going to be.
Specifically, when you look at some of the top names in that space right now, you look at the valuations of things like Binance, for example,
that would be probably a good target
if you want to see how high Hyperliquid can go.
And that's like, from these levels, that's like 1,000% upside
if you were to compare it to BNB's old all-time high
that it hit earlier this this year i think it was
like a little over two months ago where we had bnb trading well over a thousand i think bnb
reached the usd price of like almost fifteen hundred dollars which is uh unreal now looking
back on it but market has been been a bit crappy since 1010.
All we've really had, and this is more of a recap, I mean, we only have like, what,
seven more trading days in the equity markets before the year is up.
And now that crypto is basically falling one-to-one with TradFi flows, as far as volume is concerned, whenever the stock market, whenever the U.S. stock market is closed, there's not much price action that's going on in crypto.
Then, I mean, all we can really talk about, at least for the first bit of the show, is kind of recapping what's gone on over the last few weeks I
mean 1010 all we've really had is a little AI pop BTC had a complacency
shoulder at like 116 and we had the IWM hitting all-time highs and now we're
coming in towards the end of the year and it's honestly like it's it's
honestly pathetic if I'm being honest man
um and this little cpi reading if we don't actually bounce from like here to tomorrow
then i i i think santa might have gone on vacation to hawaii or something like that um
maybe bangladesh maybe mumbai uh the wabi there was no santa rally the whole time brother maybe Bangladesh, maybe Mumbai.
Wabi, there was no Santa rally the whole time, brother.
Yeah, you know, it's crazy, man. You have that saying, the Satan rally, and TraderMain actually said that.
And for some altcoins, that's definitely the case um truth be told it's
really like frightening to me to look at some of these altcoins and uh i'm talking like mid caps
high caps i'm not talking you know the random on-chain coins that like hit 20 30 40 mil or 15
mil 10 mil 3, whatever it is.
That is a completely different market.
You're always going to have the on-chain casino
with random outperformers on a, I don't know,
one-week basis, one-and-a-half-week basis,
as far as time frame.
I'm talking more like established products that are building
or, hey, even meme queen communities that have been
around for a few years right i look at some of these structures without even looking at majors
and it's like man this is this is actually abysmal um a few months ago you would say man if xyz coin
reaches this valuation i'm probably gonna buy in and like, they just sliced through them by a ton.
Just take a look at really anything that was trending over the last, like,
year and a half, I would say.
Basically, since PumpFun came out.
I think that's what really started, like, the on-chain madness,
whether it was memes, whether it's AI.
And honestly, I'm just speechless.
Even Monad, right?
Monad can very well hit half a cent.
That's not even...
I mean, that's not even...
I don't even think that would be a low, to be honest, because, you know, what if BTC just goes to where Louis thinks it's going to go, for example?
And I know Louis thinks it's going to go back to the 2024 range, that massive range that we were at, the upper range between like 65 to 71 right around there but what happened to some of
these altcoins specifically ones that you know they have a lot of uh they have a lot of staking
rewards they're new um ah gosh man i'm i'm so sorry for sounding like pessimistic even though i started out optimistic but i'm literally just
trying to find the bull case and it's it's it's cpi that's like the only thing we have here locally
um and you compare that to some of the scenarios that we've heard here right like max's whoosh
Max's whoosh, Hagrid's who could have foreseen.
Hagrid's inverted who could have foreseen, right?
And we're going to go ahead and talk markets.
I sent Max an invite.
Any one of you guys is welcome to come up here on the show today.
show today uh we do have christmas coming up and uh usually like you know the amount of shows that
We do have Christmas coming up.
we do on christmas week and new year's week is a bit more shorter so i'll extend it to the community
for the remaining shows that uh we have for the remainder of the year so if you guys want to come
on up at any time during the show just uh hit that request button to the bottom
left guys um i i do want to state that again um usually christmas week and new year's week the
number of shows that we do is a bit more it's a bit more uh limited and i'm sure you guys are
going to be enjoying your vacation time family time uh whatever it is that you guys do to uh
to just take a break from markets.
Just hit that request button and I'll bring you up at any point during the show.
But before we officially get started, guys, I want to welcome you all back to Market Talk
brought to you by BB.
My name's Wabi or rather King Yapper.
I like to yap a lot.
There's a lot of yapping I have to catch up to on these shows.
But guys, welcome, welcome.
I hope you're all doing fantastic and staying safe out there.
I don't know who is playing leverage in this market.
I don't know who's really trading on chain in this market um i don't know who's really trading on chain in this market i think it's
like the top 0.1 percent of people that are actively i'm saying actively trading on chain
and um we're gonna go ahead and start cooking guys but before we do that if you guys can go
ahead and show some love to the space show some love to the stream to the show the best way to do
that guys is you guys already know what I'm about to say is by clicking the
spaces tab once you guys click the spaces tab you'll see a nice little link
up on the nest above our profile pictures that says x comm slash I slash
spaces go ahead hit that like button hit that repost button if you're bearish hit the like
button if you're bullish hit the like button if you're bearish hit the repost button and hit the
repost button even more if you want some if you just want some volatility to come into the market
uh just interact guys interact and feel free to ask any questions um in the purple pill to the bottom right the chat box
i want to go ahead and uh get started and yap about uh what went on we also have uh the yields
acting a bit acting a bit strange here i'm not sure what's up with that um uncle joe is going
to be coming in later during the show uh probably more towards like 4.30 p.m. ESC right around that time.
We're going to have some of our other guys come in as well.
And, yeah, I'm going to pass it on over to someone who asked me a question, which I was honestly shocked that this question was even asked.
It was a question that I didn't expect.
And, Max, what is up with the question
with the title,
man? Welcome, brother.
The title of the spaces.
Yeah.
Hey, Bobby.
Should I have put the title
It's Over, Sell It All?
Well, I don't, I mean, did you make
the space, did you make it at
like, you know, 7.30 a.m., you know, like a New York open pump, or did you just make it?
I made it a month ago, man. I made it a month ago, because I'm like, alright, the Santa rally is going to happen at least seven days out, But it seems like the Grinch stole Christmas.
Yeah, I think the Grinch did steal Christmas.
You know, for those that have been tuning in to the show pretty regularly,
I've been pretty clear about my expectations for majors.
I mean, even going back to, it was October, maybe 12th or something like that.
October 13th, 14th, I don't remember.
That week after the October 10th massacre.
I mean, I basically came in here and presented the thesis that altcoins were leading, I guess
Smaller altcoins were leading what Bitcoin and Ethereum were going to do, which is unfortunate.
smaller altcoins were leading, you know, what Bitcoin and Ethereum were going to do.
But all cycle, we've sort of seen that where alts have really very, very, very rarely led
and outperformed majors besides little spurts or on-chain things.
But I mean, more like centralized exchange alts, large altcoins,
top 50 type of alts, they've really forecasted weakness in Bitcoin and Ethereum all cycle.
And, you know, as I've watched things progress further and further along,
that picture has unfortunately become more grim every single day
um yeah I mean man where do I even begin like it's uh I was pretty pretty clear yesterday for those that were in here but you know I'm I'm fully expecting uh lower I think like genuinely your best case for Bitcoin here, unless there's sort of a miracle, for lack of a better term, is, you know, sweeping that April low, you know, probably dipping into the upper 70s.
And then we'll see what kind of reaction we get from there.
I think that the problem we had recently was consensus to me seemed that everybody was starting to lean a little bit bearish or most people were leaning somewhat bearish or skeptical about the direction that majors were going to head.
And they kept drawing these comparisons to, you know, the shoulder of the 2022 cycle when Bitcoin basically pulled back like 40 percent from the all time high and then spent roughly three months kind of chopping, trying to buy its way back up.
But ultimately ended up being one hell of a complacency shoulder before we entered a major,
major downturn. And to me, that felt like a really crowded idea. And basically all of my
systems were fully risk off and painting the picture that we were going to actually get a
much more shallow bounce. I would say, you know, probably more akin to, you know, maybe May or June of 2022, where you basically
lose high timeframe value.
You've got so much supply overhead, your momentum oscillators are trying to recover,
but price just simply is not following.
And you basically just get pinned in this tight little cluster for a month, maybe five
or six weeks, and then you take another
dive down and search for value lower. And that's really been my thesis for 45 days now was,
I don't think this bounce is going to give you too much. And what was, again, really telling to me
on that that was in fact the case is looking at some of the altcoins that led over the past couple
quarters, refusing to do anything but high time frame downtrend. I mean, go look at the hype
chart. There's been so much signal in watching what hype has been doing all cycle. And when I
looked at that hype chart, I said, how in the world is Bitcoin going to rally up to $100,000 to $108,000 and give us the perfect short-entry, de-risking retest as we come into the end of the year?
And a lot of these altcoins that were kind of a consensus freebie trade being a hyperliquid or earlier in the cycle, Solana, how am I expecting hype to recover from here?
The structure looks abysmal. How am I expecting Solana to recover from this two-year distribution?
It just didn't seem super likely. So again, there was a lot more signal and in my view, kind of obvious signal
that we were going to get a much more shallow bounce. Like I think we're kind of seeing
start to break down here, then some prolonged quarter long, you know, shoulder. Now I said
yesterday on the space, I don't think you really want to see what's under 120 on Solana. I don't. Well,
actually I do. I'm short, but kind of more in like a general sense, in like an urging caution type of
alarm. You really don't want to see what's under 120. 120 was effectively a two-year floor for Solana with a couple little deviations.
But if Sol starts to really break down and slide below 120, I don't think it's outlandish
to prospect Sol heading towards 50-ish and basically marking down from a two-year distribution and probably finding a
new range somewhere between the bear market range high and this bull market range low,
right? I think from memory, the bear market range high was maybe 45 or 50, right? I could be a
little bit off, but somewhere down there. So I really am quite spooked by this market. I've certainly prepared for it,
but this is potentially one of those moments where people are going to look back and
kind of remember where they were. I think it's possible you can see it pinned here a little bit
longer. Equities showed some strength today, you know, didn't really sell off or follow crypto.
But, you know, for me, it's strong convictions held loosely.
Like, I'm very convicted and I'm my personal, you know, how I'm handling things personally
is like I'm very much so like prepared for lower, you know, short from significantly higher and just writing that down.
And really, for me, it's simple.
Bitcoin and Ethereum have been rejecting off their 30 day rolling VWAPs.
Like, I mean, every one of these recent scam spikes has rejected from the 30-day rolling BWAP and Ethereum
underneath the 365-day rolling BWAP. Until you can start to see some lower time frame momentum,
actually reclaim these significant volume-based levels, not these little scam New York Open
spikes that we've been seeing. I mean, what we've been seeing like at the New York open is incredibly predatory.
It makes it very difficult to want to hold shorts as well.
But what we've seen the last two sessions is like New York open an hour before to about
an hour after the open, two to 300 million in, you know, leverage longs come in on Bitcoin,
any ETH and altcoins.
We see a spike and then an incredibly predatory drop.
And each one of those spikes is basically retraced to like the 30-day rolling view up.
Until we start to actually reclaim these volume-based, you know, levels, I'm just not interested in trying to call bottom.
Like, it's very clear that we're in a high timeframe
downtrend. Alts are looking weak, right? A lot of large, you know, consensus altcoin trades from
this cycle, specifically referring to hyperliquid right now, really look grim. And, you know,
I've seen nothing but rejection after rejection, where like, every time buyers try to step in,
they get smacked down. And there's been a few moments when I've looked at it and said, you know what, like,
if they can stick the landing, then, you know, I'll pivot, right? If they can turn this thing
around, you know, if Bitcoin can hold this pump and we see, you know, spot bid come in and, you
know, hold it up after the perps went crazy the last two morning sessions. Okay, maybe we can see a bit of a rally here.
And I'm still of, I'm still like, I'm fine with that, right?
Like if we can see a sustained bid come in,
not just apes at the New York Open shoving two or 300 million
and then U-turning it, you know, right at a 30-day rolling VWAP.
It's like, they're trying to make, it. It's like they're trying to make, it seems
to me like they're trying to make it really difficult to hold shorts, but ultimately every
one of these scams results in a very slightly lower low. And I think the way that this resolves
is probably, you know, how it normally resolves. How does an environment like this typically resolve?
It's not with just some spontaneous recovery.
Usually it's with a sweep or deviation of a high time frame pivot.
So at this point, that's what I'm looking for.
Bitcoin is in the mid 80s.
I'd love to see that April low get taken out.
To me, I think that's probably your best chance at putting in a higher time frame bottom is taking out that significant swing low that
formed the April bottom earlier this year. And if we can do something like that and get a nice
reaction and a sustained bid comes in after, then maybe that's it, right? It's really for me,
strong convictions held loosely. Like I'm just riding the downtrend right now and I'm building
as much cash so that I can buy as many coins as I want with plenty of liquidity when I think that the market is coming to an actual bottom.
But yeah, we got a pretty shallow bounce, you know, like after the drop that we had
about a month ago, you know, it's been a shallow bounce.
Every, you know, local pop has been sold into.
And I guess one thing I will just say in the bull's favor is like it is Bitcoin and it
is crypto.
They have a way of
proving the bears wrong time and time again, maybe more so Bitcoin than altcoins, but you know,
the majors, right? They have a way of just kind of looking terrible and then turning around. So
that's why I say strong convictions held loosely. If I start to see things change, like real spot
bid come in, you know, we start to flip like, you know, some lower
timeframe rolling VWAPs and moving averages.
And, you know, people are not getting so crazy on the leverage every single time we squeeze
up a little bit.
Then, yeah, you know, crypto might do one of those famous spontaneous recovery bottoms.
But I don't like the look of of the market profile right now I mean it looks
uh it looks very ugly to me and I said that yesterday and I said that last week and the
week before that and um you know I'm just I'm just patiently waiting for resolution whether that is
an actual sign of strength locally um which I think I already covered kind of what I'm looking for, you know, or we take
out a significant swing low and get a reaction, you know, and I guess one more thing I will mention
is I really, I think there's a lot of signal in the ETH BTC pair right now. I think there's a lot
of signal in it. For the past, you know past couple months, every time ETH BTC has sold
off and shown weakness, the market's been pretty weak. And on the flip side of that, whenever the
ETH BTC pair has shown strength, we've actually seen strength kind of in the broader market. So
when I look at the ETH BTC pair, it's definitely signaling to me that we're at an inflection point. Like we recently
tried to break a little bit higher. It was, I don't know, like, I guess just trying to describe
it basically like the top that we had in August kind of slow bled down from August to, you know,
late November. And then in December, we started to sort of break higher. And there's
kind of a diagonal trend line you could place across all those highs from August through
November. And to me, it's starting to look more like a failed breakout, which I would assume then
tucks back underneath that trend. And, you know, probably I'm honestly eyeing for ETH BTC somewhere down in like 0.027 if this does fail.
And I think if ETH BTC does do that, you know, just given how ETH BTC has sort of forecasted
the general direction of the market in recent months, I would imagine that probably takes
Bitcoin below that April low.
ETH, you know, definitely lower, right?
Much lower. But again, I'm flexible. Like
I, you know, I'm not trying to fund anybody's bags and I still own a bunch of crypto and,
you know, whatever. But trust me, I do not like being a bearer. I genuinely, you know, I hate it.
It's, you know, it can be emotionally taxing. And I feel like when you have a very strong bearish bias in markets, you start looking for things to go wrong.
You start to view the world more pessimistically.
One, it's a very tough way to make a living being a pessimist.
of the negativity, but just sort of looking at the profile, the market and the positioning and
the general market structure, it's hard for me to want to come in here with a lot of confidence and
be like, yeah, oh yeah, the final flush, that's it. We're good to go, guys. And I wish that was
the case. But I've been pretty clear for a couple of months now that I started by saying I'm
uninspired by how Bitcoin looks. Then I started to saying I'm uninspired by how Bitcoin looks.
Then I started to say I'm uninspired by by ETH. And then we started talking about altcoin weakness and, you know, October 10th. And, you know, I think you're just in a high time frame downtrend
until the market basically proves something else is happening. So it's kind of the summary.
is happening so it's kind of the summary back to you geez max man that that that is a sentiment
that i agree with being a bear honestly like does change you quite a bit i i remember how i was um
earlier this year in q1 and when we talk about leaders right? We look at the last 12 months. We look at tickers like a hype, like a Pengu, or more recently with some of these newer launches, like a pump.
Pump Fun made even more fresh all-time lows by like 10%.
um pump is down almost 50 percent over the last uh over the last like week and a half which
my goodness man that is uh something else we also have monad down like over 10 today
um there isn't a single sign of strength from anything in the top 100 outside of like
of strength from anything in the top 100 outside of like Bitcoin, Bitcoin cash.
Bitcoin cash is the only thing that is green in the top 100.
I don't know what that means for the market.
It's up, geez, over the last couple of days.
Yeah, yeah.
Over the last couple of days, it's up like five percent-ish only the last three days.
Right.
If you, if you were to like zoom out to this ticker, it's basically been in distribution,
uh, for about a month.
And, um, we also have one of Tommy's favorite tickers to kind of ring the bell that maybe something is about to unfold in a not so good way.
Jelly, jelly.
It's up like 50% today again for whatever reason.
That's Nance.
Binance laundering.
Paying back their market makers for wrecking them.
Yeah.
And dude, your fractal Prometheus, by the way, on Monad, is actually pretty good.
Bro, you want to know what that is? The little secret sauce?
It's the XPL fractal, dude.
No, no, no.
XPL is just getting destroyed.
It's not XPL. It's Dime, bro.
I'm sorry. I'm not sure what that tick ticker is i've never even heard of it you've
never heard of uh nope dime dym no never man i'm not sure i don't even think that's a real
ticker man he's making it up that's yeah not even real yeah yeah i'm not sure maybe is that like a
coin on avax or something like that? Cardano?
What is everybody's obsession with XPO?
The ticker literally didn't do anything but go straight down.
I'm so confused.
Yeah.
So for those that are – look, anyone that's listening to the show right now is like a survivor.
like these are the people that are actually trading the market right now um but for those
Like these are the people that are actually trading the market right now.
that don't know xpl is basically like uh like they're like a stable coin chain right they're
they're one of the only products tickers products whatever it is they want to call it in the market
that was uh directly invested in through um through tether right through paulo i'm not sure
how to pronounce his last name but
paulo from tether this is a product that he backed and also um kobe you guys know kobe from ct right
uh his platform echo did a fundraise where people got in at a penny and um i mean they basically did like almost a 200x off the rip with xpl and they were fully
unlocked on day one and um in xpl i mean it it had like a 90 pump off the rip it had a two there's
no way they were fully unlocked on day one yeah yeah a lot of that is criminal yeah a lot of sales believe it or not they they
actually like a lot of sales that these projects do there's always like a smaller sale um that like
community people can get into it's just that like i mean i'm not sure how these valuations are propped
up on the back end but i mean xpl XPL people that got in the echo round,
they're still up like over 10 X man.
And seed investors,
like actual seed investors are probably up even more.
And yeah,
there's also like mega ETH as well.
I'm not sure if they're going to tge but that's like the
last big one um but i i think there's going to come a point where it's like all right where do
i think xyz ticker is going like if you see hyper liquid at 15 bucks for example you have to ask
yourself all right where do i think this ticker is going do i think it's going to 100 and
then like i think some people are going to start taking chances around that level like 15 to 18
bucks hyper liquid had a lot of like volume traded there but with solana i agree with max um
i actually went on a call with ed who's our dev like last month um like weeks before thanksgiving and um i think
soul was trading between like that death zone between like 160 ish 170 ish and he's like man
if if soul actually starts to lose these levels um there's basically nothing but air like there's basically nothing but air
and we spoke about this on the show yesterday but um when you look at solana without pump fun
there's there's nothing like soul is effectively a zero um at least in its current form right just how it was a zero after ftx like it needed a new
a new uh a rebrand of sorts and you know there's some rumors on pump fun and what's going on with
them um but it's a rumor until it's not right and if something were to happen to pump fun
i'm not sure um where Solana would bottom at.
I really don't.
If you look at the way Sol bottoms last bear market, it bottomed two months after Bitcoin
bottomed, about a month and a half after actually.
Um, maybe this time it's like the inverse, right?
Maybe this time it's like the inverse, right?
Say something happens to pump fun.
Um, Solana might bottom before the rest of the market, but might not go as high, uh,
during the next, during the next, uh, wave of upside, kind of like ETH, right?
ETH had all those liquidations through, uh, three AC going to zero.
Um, I think maker Dow almost got liquidated that day also.
And ETH basically underperformed,
even though you had many tickers on ETH mainnet
and also on base going quite high.
So, Prometheus, feel free to give some of your thoughts, man.
We had some interesting price action on yields today,
which Joe's going to talk about that when he comes in in like 30 minutes or so but if you want you can give some
of your thoughts on that i know with equities it was uh it was like crypto kind of price action
today you had a you had a spike up and then the usual retrace and then just like flat just like a flat line man my goodness dude yeah um i mean
i'm driving through the woods right now so it might break up here momentarily but man i just
think that you're having a little bit of disbelief in equity land right now i i don't think it's this
you know catch-up trade to the upside
that crypto is going to have.
I think that equities are actually in the midst
of rolling over right now,
and it just takes a lot longer for that to happen.
I make the analogy pretty often that you got to look at
the whole liquidity picture as kind of a lake,
and the deeper parts of the lake are where the deeper liquidity is.
And, you know, where does if the lake is drying up or liquidity is drying up, where does it recede from first the places with the least amount of liquidity, i.e.
crypto. Right. And you look at, interestingly enough, a lot of names that are not even crypto related in equities are already down, you know, 40 percent.
I mean, you look at Oracle, for instance, down 50%.
The CPI reading is what it is.
I had mentioned to the discord the other day that the Fed is stuck between a rock and a
hard place.
And I talked about it on yesterday's space as well, where you want to make sure that
you're not putting too much strain on the labor you know the job
market and the labor force um but at the same time you're combating inflation well we're now
starting to you know quote unquote see inflation coming down even though there's rumors that
not even rumors some of the line items were literally zeroed out uh which definitely skews
the data to some extent.
But we're entering into a rate cutting cycle.
We've been in a rate cutting cycle now for, what, eight months, nine months, if not longer.
At least a confirmed rate cutting cycle.
And the Fed is going to continue down that path.
And now you see the BOJ later, they're going to, you know, almost almost it's almost a guarantee at this point they're gonna be hiking so if you like crunch candy bars i'm gonna keep
talking about that i hope everybody likes crunch candy bars because liquidity is about to get
hammered and crunched within this market and it's going to continue to does it have caramel
brother it has whatever you want on it as long as you are down for the get down if you
know what i mean and man well you if you're going to the woods i i i would think that you're visiting
tucker so in that case i hope you have like 25 candy bars because that is a large man that is a large man the thing is is yes we we live in we live in uh farmland but
tucker is not the farming type tucker is quite the opposite of the farming type actually um
there are there are some others you know me included who are a little bit more uh you know
nature involved and nature related.
But, you know, Tucker is, I would not, you know, say he is, he is of that breed, if you
know what I mean.
But anyways, I, man, I just, I look at the charts and Max talked about the weakness structurally
for Solana and, you know and what is 120 half below it.
You look at a lot of the market leaders
and the names that have held up predominantly well
through the entirety of this cycle
where the majority of altcoins have not.
And those names in particular are Hyperliquid, XRP, Solana.
You know, you can maybe throw a few others into that basket.
But those three names in particular have at least remained in some form of higher time frame uptrend or kept structures intact for the most part.
When most alts, when, you know, throughout this bull market, we've had periods of Bitcoin pulling back 30 percent.
Most alts have gone on to make new lows.
Those have held up, you know,
the names that I just listed have held up very well.
And so you got to ask yourself,
if Bitcoin looks weak, right?
We're seeing OI,
we're seeing no spot buying come in significantly.
We're actually seeing a lot of supply
getting unloaded right here locally. And these pumps are just completely
OI driven. And so if we think that supply is going to continue to come onto the market,
and there's a clear lack of demand there at these junctures for Bitcoin, what does that mean for
these other names that are at significant points of inflection on their chart?
And I think it's going to mean, you know, further downside.
I don't think that there's just going to be this magical rally off of no structural level of significance here, locally speaking, that's going to save these charts.
I think Solana's got in, you know, if you ask me, where do you think Solana is going?
I think Solana is going another 60, 70% lower. I think Solana is going to go to 40 to 50 bucks. I think XRP is going to go to potentially 70 cents. Maybe, could pretty easily revisit sub $10 realistically.
And I don't think that's necessarily a super doomer scenario.
I just think it's more, in my opinion, from a viewpoint of realism.
And there just is no institutional bid for alts as a whole.
And at some point, that's going to change.
And I think that changes within the next 24 months.
But as of right now, like I said, the lack of demand,
retail doesn't have money to buy anything.
If retail doesn't have money to buy anything,
then what's stopping these things from, you know,
perpetually bleeding to the downside.
That's really what you have to kind of ask yourselves.
And at what levels does it make sense? You you know structural demand come in and like i said i think that's a
lot lot lot lower than some people would expect and some people are like oh we're gonna stop you
know bitcoin's gonna stop it like you know 74k you know and like that's the next spot you look
for it to even bounce from you know i mean that's not necessarily like a high time for
a high time for bottom like you know could there be sure you'd need to see the chart show that
before you even call for that i think you need to have expectations and be ready for much lower than
people are expecting um i think there's a lot of complacency within all the markets right now
and people have been kind of lulled to sleep into buying every 5% to 10% dip there is in equities.
And it just is what it is.
VIX, structurally speaking, looks pretty sound.
I look at names like Apple and Amazon and Google.
And, you know, we're getting the kind of the real question right now
is with Oracle is can Oracle service their debts, right? Oracle has a tremendous amount of debt that
they're going to have to service and people are looking at their free cash flow and they're saying,
well, wait a second, like based off of your, you know, growth metrics here, you guys aren't going
to be able to pay your debt, right?
And you're not generating any money right now.
And your capital expenditures is only going to increase as you build out this other army
or company being like the cloud side of things.
And so your debt's growing and you're not monetizing this new arm of the business and
your current cash flow from what your current business is
isn't going to suffice, you're overvalued, right? Until you figure out the revenue side of things.
And I think that question is going to come for, or I think a lot more shareholders and just, you know, institutions and people in
general are going to have that same question for almost all of these AI companies, almost all of
these data center companies. Like, how do you monetize your space? Because right now you look
at OpenAI, OpenAI, 80% of their revenue comes from that $20 a month subscription. But you just had Google come out yesterday and say that Gemini is going to be free.
So why would anybody use OpenAI anymore?
You know, and OpenAI is funded.
I think it's somewhere around 15% to 20% off the top of my head, if I remember correctly,
the metric, 15% to 20 percent of this
AI expansion in the data centers thus far. Right. And so as that question continues to
kind of get brought to the forefront, which is something we talked about on these spaces,
I think three to four weeks ago with David Levinson, you're just going to see a deflation in the valuation. And if AI trade is
made up of made up 35% of the GDP this year, and that starts to deflate. I mean, what else is there
to really hold this, you know, this ship up, you know, it's it's a hot air balloon, that's running
out of gas, it just is, you know?
And there's nothing wrong with that.
It's the same thing that happened and coming out of .com.
You know, everybody, your question is like,
okay, all these internet companies,
nobody's making, nobody's generating any real money.
And then out of .com, you know,
came the Amazons and the Googles.
And I mean, Microsoft is already there
and yada, yada, yada, as people were able to monetize it.
And that's the next question for AI, right?
It's figuring out how to actually monetize it and generate real revenue in a meaningful way.
And how do you really shape and change the landscape of the future for technology, right?
That's the next question.
That's what people are trying to solve right now.
And I think that people got a little bit ahead of their skis in regards to, you know, future
valuations or expecting, you know, future cash flows from these companies.
And, you know, from a valuation perspective is just ridiculous.
But yeah, I mean, that's kind of what I see in the backdrop right now, man.
man, I don't think that there's any reason to be like getting your hopes up. There's clearly,
I don't think that there's any reason to be like getting your hopes up.
you know, signs that are flashing, telling everybody to, Hey, be cautious. Right. And if
the market's telling us that, then we listen, um, and we act accordingly. We preserve our capital
in the meantime. And if things turn around, then great. I will, I will turn on a dime. Um,
absolutely. There's just some questions that have got to be answered right now. And there's a lot of uncertainty within these markets. You know, there's talks of going to war with
Venezuela. I mean, who knows? I mean, who knows with Trump at this point? Who knows? Yeah, man,
I just I'm looking at these markets, man. And, you know, we're just seeing every single at least
with crypto, every single little pump gets sold into.
And structurally, things look super, super, super weak.
I think, though, what's going to be great buys here over the next 12 to 24 months, interestingly enough, are going to be robotics companies and energy, actually.
I think that energy is extremely undervalued.
extremely undervalued. You know, we talk about the importance that energy is going to play from
an infrastructure perspective here over, you know, these next, you know, these next 10 to 50 years,
energy consumption is just going up at an exponential rate. There's no signs of it
slowing down at all. You know, you look at some of these, you know, rare earth
mineral companies, some of these mining companies, the list goes on and on across the board. You look
at nuclear, nuclear is continuing to scale. You're seeing governments and countries invest
billions and billions of dollars into scaling this out because they realize that you know our
current energy production is just not going to suffice so i think that's what's going to be you
know fantastic bids here for the future man and that's what i see in the current uh economic
landscape right now what are some tickers for these robotics for these robotics companies man
you know you know what's crazy dude like I think the only um exposure for like a crypto
beta trader for robotics would be virtual they're like the only they're the only um they're the only
product in crypto that's actually like working in that field and man remember we were talking about virtuals back in like the april lows when they had that
little ponzi going on and uh it's probably one of like the only tickers outside of like a hype
uh or a pump if if pump survives right um that'd be interesting in uh in getting in positioning man but as far as like trad fi what are those tickers
outside of uh outside of tesla it's hard to say right now um i've been kind of doing a little bit
of research on the back end trying to figure out what companies are at the forefront right now and it's just a
very very young space as of right now and i don't want to i think i said this the other day in
regards to all coins but i don't want to be committing to uh plays as of right now until i
see you know where we bought them and what's kind of looking good at those times
yeah i uh i see there is there is uh one stock that i know uh it's called abb it actually has a pretty cheap valuation compared to tesla it's a 135 val um and it uh, this thing is up since the COVID low.
That's not even up 10 X.
It's just been on this like slow perpetual grind over the last like two years.
Um, it hit new all time highs earlier this month though.
but not all-time highs, a double top, actually.
But, uh, not, not all time highs, a double top actually.
But I think they're like the oldest tradable stock in that sector
outside of like a Tesla.
But what's that thing called that Tesla has?
The robot dude?
The Optimus, isn't it?
Optimus?
Yeah, yeah, it's Optimus. Yeah, but yeah, ABB has been around for like 20 plus years, man.
They're like an automation company.
And yeah, maybe some IPOs when rates are at like 1%.
Maybe that's when the next bull market starts, huh?
When rates are like at one percent
or lower um yeah it's crazy dude the market just does not care about what it used to care about
if cpi had it had a two handle a year and a half ago we'd be surging right two years ago we'd be blasting off across the board uh well the issue
wabi is is like i said is you have the japan carry trade continuing to unwind that's the big that's
the big issue with the cpi and the cpi numbers were i mean they always are but they're complete
complete garbage like in regards to it was just like they zeroed out a few lines and like it was just it
was insane yeah it isn't the the yen the yen trade like the supplier of uh of this entire market
since like oh it makes up yeah it makes up anywhere from 20 to 50 trillion dollars in
in liquidity within the markets yeah because japan has has basically been i mean
was in negative rates for a while um yeah they basically had that like super credit cycle
in the late 80s went through stagflation um they did have some growth like earlier um growth earlier, probably ironically, I think that's a better word to use, after they raised
rates, I think the Nikkei went into price discovery by a good amount.
And then what happened happened.
And what happened happened.
I guess if the supplier of the dopamine across all markets is beginning to get restrictive, then wouldn't that counteract the monetary policy that's about to unfold in America?
america so it's like so it's like you're on roids right and you get big and strong or you think
So it's like you're on roids, right?
you're about to get big and strong but then like you tear a bicep or you tear a shoulder
so you can still work out but like you're not able to get gain get gains across the board
is that is that no bro it's like it's like taking steroids and not working out that's that's more
of what it's like so like taking roids and it not working out or like you not working out that's that's more of what it's like so like taking roids and it not
working out or like you not working out no like you not physically going to the gym and working
out oh so like you'll get bigger but it's like it doesn't like it's not really gonna well the
thing is is like i mean most but most bodies will not respond to steroids without physical
stimulation like you need like you could a lot of people could take steroids and they literally wouldn't gain any muscle.
My goodness, man.
So what kind of market are we about to enter to?
Like if that's the analogy, then like, are we going to deal with the same market conditions that we've had since, I mean I would even say since the second half of
2021 because since really since since q1 of 2021 it's been a a ticker pickers market uh with a few
wave with a few maybe Tommy could talk about it who's Tommy Tommy could talk. Oh, my bad. Yeah. Snorlax.
Sully.
Sully.
Yeah, Sully.
Let's get him up here.
My bad.
Yeah, yeah, Sully.
Maybe Sully could talk about his like 1970s or 1967 to I think like 1980 thesis.
How we're probably entering into a similar kind of economic environment to that where it's just the crab, the crab ensues.
I sent them an invite to speak.
Sully refers as a them.
It's an entity.
It's not even a person.
It's an entity.
But in the meantime, we'll get some thoughts from louie um i see evan here as well let's get some thoughts from louie what's up bro welcome
what's going on lobby how's it going i'm here man um i'm i'm uh dude i'm honestly kind of bummed out with the lack of action in the market. um late august through mid-october of 2023 when there was literally nothing to do on chain
uh alts were basically flatlined uh post ftx i would say as well there was nothing to do
for like a month and a half until those ai coins ran up um maybe i mean maybe even like early february all the way till mid april
there was really nothing to do much on chain until pepe came out that that's that's kind of like how
the market um feels right now at least at least like crypto crypto specific crypto specific um
try try try try is always going to be like up and to the right like if you dollar cost average
into like hood you'll be up like a hundred percent in two years or something like that
um yeah but with some of these tickers like in crypto i i i really wouldn't even know
yeah yeah both of those time periods pretty much either during a bear market or attempting to come
out of one and i would agree man uh especially if you want to play to the long side right like
that that's what many people want to do right right? They want to find a good ticker,
DCA, accumulate, and hope to accrue value and that asset appreciates. As far as in that regard,
yeah, that's pretty much been non-existent in the crypto market, specifically over the last couple of months. I'd say maybe even longer.
There have been some.
There's been some opportunity out there,
but as a market as a whole,
yeah, it's been pretty bleak,
especially over the last couple months since Bitcoin, you know,
lost its weekly uptrend structure, right?
That's something we talked about a lot.
I was a very hopeful, optimistic bull because I'm used to Bitcoin,
you know, giving those 10%, 15% pullback,
sometimes even get a 30% pullback and giving a nice recovery.
And out of that, you know, you see some life out of altcoins.
But once we lost that weekly uptrend market structure break uh just a month or
two ago that was like the the real risk off signal to me where it just wasn't worth trying to play
this market to the long side any longer right i kind of waited to the last possible um second
until i had to be proved otherwise, which was a weekly market
structure break the downside, uh, since then just been very risk off.
Um, and just waiting for this kind of downtrend high time from
downtrend to finish.
Right.
Uh, and we, we did come into this market structure, right?
Not, not very much, but I guess you could say there is market structure, you
know, kind of where we've been bouncing, trading around now for the last month or so.
But at the end of the day, like with that significant type of breakdown on the high
timeframe, you know, this little bit of market structure here, realistically, not very ironclad,
right?
Not very ironclad, not very promising as far as to where we would find a bottom in this type of environment at this point with this type of breakdown. So kind of sitting
on my hands, waiting for an opportunity. But there has been opportunity if you're playing the
downside. But even like Max mentioned, it's very difficult even to do that, right? We're constantly
getting these scam pumps on the lower timeframes. It seems as if
they're trying to take out as many shorts as possible on this downtrend. So it's been very
difficult regardless, unless you had super strong conviction in the direction of this market,
like Max has mentioned, and literally just hammering into these
literally just kind of hammering into these pumps and a lot of time frame, they're pretty big pumps,
right? It takes a lot of conviction and guts to kind of short into those pumps. But if you have
been, there has been some opportunity out there. That's what we've been doing pretty much for the
last month successfully. I did share a post up into the nest, kind of just getting a higher timeframe view of
Bitcoin right now, you know, just in about two hours or so, we get a confirmed bear flag breakdown
on Bitcoin here. If we close today where we are now, odds of that very high Bitcoin would have
to pump back to the upside, probably like three or 4% in the next couple hours to negate that.
But you can see, if you look at the chart up in the nest, we've lost pretty much our market
structure from the January double top highs there. We've been bouncing into that, that underside
retest, failing to get back above that 93, 94K level, clear signs of resistance there.
And that's kind of what our message has been, right?
Like if Bitcoin can get back above 93, 94, there's really nothing worth playing to alongside,
right?
Like it's not the environment where you want to continue to catch a falling knife,
to catch a falling knife, try to call bottom when you have the high timeframe, underside rejecting
try to call bottom when you have the high timeframe,
of major market structure, getting a confirmed bear flight breakdown today. And if these local
lows, right now, I guess you could say could look like a double bottom, right? And that's why I
wrote in that post, if the local lows are lost, pretty much our stab low we made um back in the
end of november right if that level is lost around like 82 83k and we can't hold that here um measured
move target takes us down to high like low 70s high 60s right um that's just kind of the target
i'm looking at right uh the good news is that there's a lot of support down there, right?
A lot, a lot of support. Max would call it mega demand. Um,
we're in tons of markets.
He has to charge you like a quarter now, right? Max, he used the,
well, as, as the market dropped, the price to use mega demand went down,
just call it like, know five cents that's fine
send it over louis all right um i could do that it's no problem but a lot of support down there
right that's actually worth playing right versus you know the little kind of blip of a bounce we
put in over the last month like down down there, I think the odds and probabilities
of trying to play something to the long side in this market are much higher probability long setups
versus where we are now, right? So the good news is that there is a lot of support down there.
If it comes a lot better high conviction longs where your risk reward is skewed to the upside,
coming into a major level like that. But sadly, if we do lose this local low here,
that's likely where price is coming. That's likely where price is coming. So we'll continue to
monitor it. But with the looks of how equities are looking at and coming on this space for
the last month now expressing caution with
the equity markets because like I've mentioned many times, Bitcoin tends to lead these overall
market moves to the downside. I went back and back tested this and looked at the data where four out of the five times in the last five years,
Bitcoin has had a 20% plus drawdown to the downside. Equity markets, specifically,
I use the S&P, tend to lag and ultimately, eventually have their own move to the downside
as well a month or two later of 10% or more.
Right. So I was saying that a month ago, the, the markets were, we're continuing to kind of
chug higher a little bit, right.
They didn't make fresh highs, but they were still floating it up.
Um, so it didn't really make much sense.
Uh, and you know, to, to many listeners, probably now we're starting to see some
of those cracks, uh cracks in the equity market. We're starting to see some overflow and spillover into that market. And I'm pretty much waiting for
that catch-up trade to the downside out of equities, which honestly, if we get it in a big
way, that something that catches the market off guard, that's probably going to act as a catalyst
for this final kind of move to the downside in these markets.
So that's what I've been watching.
We're starting to finally see some evidence of that.
So nothing confirmed yet.
The S&P starting to look a little heavy here, starting to lose some key levels.
If they can't save the equity market up here, the equity markets are probably going to, you know, have some downside.
That's probably going gonna continue to put pressure
and bring some more downside into the crypto market.
And then we kind of wait and see, right?
How big is that move to the downside in equities
if and when it comes?
And where does it fall?
Where does it land?
And does the Fed step in if and when
that something like that happens? So that's what we're waiting on until then sitting in cash playing downside um and just
waiting for for this to all kind of play out here but right now i i still express caution um in these
markets so so what are you doing outside of markets because like this honestly this honestly sucks man um i mean i i i haven't played golf like all month but um
i remember like shortly after shortly after like pump had topped and the market started to get
boring um i really put some focus on uh on my short game which is pretty good and uh i got up to four handicap
in golf and i'm actually looking to uh like if if if if the market like just continues to act
like this man i don't know dude i'm probably gonna have to pick up something else as well dude
uh maybe like ping pong or something like that you've been playing a
lot of stuff to the downside um you know our fund has been pretty active um so i'm still busy right
busy in the discord um kind of keeping those guys uh in the know day to day with the crazy price
action you know so you're active you're actively trading right now? Yeah, yeah. I wasn't up until like the last couple of weeks, right?
Because I wasn't really, I didn't really see much risk reward to playing crypto to the
downside, but there are a select few names that have some sizable downside that have
been holding up if we do kind of get this last move to the downside.
So there is, I've been playing a lot,
you know, more so in the equity market as well.
I'm pretty much, you know,
have some short exposure to a basket of mega cap stocks if we do kind of get this surprise move to the downside.
So other than that, just spending time with family, right?
Holidays are on the corner,
a lot of family stuff going on.
So, you know, taking the time
to just to spend time with them, my son, my wife, my extended family, and just kind of
sit back and wait for this to play out. But other than that, it had been a little active, but,
you know, nothing crazy.
Max, what are you doing? Are you actively trading, Max? Or are you just like holding these positions and just like actually living a life here like most of CT should be doing? What are you doing, Max, outside of like markets and, you know, bear markets, right? Bear markets, crab markets, they have a way of actually like distorting the mind
and they're definitely not as fun as bull markets yeah i uh i definitely agree with you there
i would say i'm doing more active trading now than i have in a long time um it's been a couple months i'm definitely i wouldn't call what I'm doing scalping or anything like that,
but, um, yeah, I mean, I'm, I'm looking to build core positions and, uh, I mean,
I guess core downside positions. Um, and I monitor them, monitor them very closely because a lot of them are, you know, pretty high leverage or pretty time sensitive when it comes to playing options.
So you have to, whether you're actually pressing buttons every day, you know, that's a whole separate thing.
But it's more like you really need to be conscientious of monitoring the positions because they're not
just kind of set and forget type of positions. They're, you know, look to hold them for a week
or two, you know, and look, looking towards kind of the left and the right tail. So yeah, I,
I wouldn't say I'm actively trading, but I guess i'm looking at the charts sort of like i i
was actively trading i'm actively managing positions and if i see spots to add to them i do
so yeah i'm kind of viewing this time actually as one of the points of maximum opportunity
one of the points of maximum opportunity, truthfully.
And I think a lot of people are maybe viewing it the opposite,
where, you know, some people were kind of just here for, you know,
the altcoin pumps and the meme pumps.
And I love that shit, man.
I love easy mode.
I love being bullish.
I love it more than anything.
It's a lot more fun.
And I think that this cycle was generally kind of a disappointment for everything other than Bitcoin
so far. I mean, ETH didn't even go into price discovery. We kind of wicked above the previous
all-time high, but that's not price discovery, which is incredibly disappointing because a lot
of my personal positioning for know, positioning for the
cycle was really kind of rooted around Ethereum eventually having its moment, which it seemingly
never did or hasn't yet, we'll say. But I'm viewing this as somebody who's long-term committed to this
space as a moment of maximum opportunity, where if I can not only build some cash you know stay invested in
the space and projects that i think will come back um and really do tremendous things during the
right the right time um but actively play downside and grow that you know cash position or that stablecoin position through short profits,
think about it like this.
If you were to sell ETH at $3,500 and then ETH goes to $1,800,
you can effectively pick up twice as much Ethereum as you once had just by being in cash. If you sell ETH at $3,500
and then you decide to short some ETH wherever, and instead of being cash, let's just say you
had $100,000. You sell $100,000 of ETH at $3,500. And then ETH goes down to $1,700 or $1,800.
Again, I'm just throwing out numbers. Okay.
And you turn that a hundred grand into 125 grand or 150 grand and you do a great job shorting,
which in crypto, the kind of volatility that we have, if you know how to trade,
um, and not just hold during up only, um, those type of returns are actually not,
not outrageous.
You know, I know to some people, if you're just kind of invested in like stocks, you might be like 50%, like that's a crazy move.
But the type of volatility that we have in crypto actually does offer pretty substantial
returns if you know how to position around it.
You know, so if you can turn that 100 grand into 125 and then Ethereum drops by 50% or
something like that, you can more than
double the amount of ethereum that you're going to buy back at lower prices so the mindset that
i'm really in right now is you know i did take i did build some cash higher up um i've been actively
shorting and the way that i'm currently playing this market is somebody who's very hungry to buy
crypto later on. And that's where the real money is made. If easy mode, and again, we got cheated
of alt season. We didn't have a true alt season. Others dominance has been in a bear market for four years.
It was not a great cycle for altcoins. It just didn't shape up like I had hoped.
But again, as somebody who's long-term committed to this space, my primary objective is to just
make as much money and cash as I possibly can through the downside
volatility so that when the time comes, I've got a ton of liquidity that I can throw into spot
holdings when I think easy mode is going to come back. And eventually it will. So I am being pretty
active. And for me, this is not the time to zone out, kick my feet up, you know, travel, turn my brain off.
Like, this is when I really focus up because I recognize that this is where the money is made, is playing downside when it's appropriate.
Got to be careful, though, right? If you don't know how to do it, you know, be super careful. But waiting to buy assets like, man, if I could get hyper liquid, you know, if I could buy some hype 30, 40, 50% lower than here, that's fantastic, right? What a tremendous opportunity, you know, regardless of whatever may or may not have happened with this cycle or your current portfolio performance
Got to be careful, though, right?
If you don't know how to do it, you know, be super careful.
or whatever it may be.
You know, if you were just kind of a hitchhiker and like, I was just going to be here for
a year and hope to get rich and it didn't work out, I'm gone.
All right, well, you know, see ya.
But if you're long-term committed to the space and you're hungry enough for it, this is potentially
a tremendous opportunity if we do get another big pullback.
Kind of like I was saying earlier, for me, it's really strong convictions held loosely.
I'm expecting more downside, but I'm flexible. If we start to see some serious reclaims and
things like that, then great, we'll pivot. But for right now, just riding the
downtrend, trying to accrue as many stable coins as I possibly can, build as much cash. And when
the time comes, whether that's here or at the bottom of another flush, shove it. And that's
where the real money is made. Because look, it's also a lot easier to make money in a bull market because I can short ETH and it goes down 50% and I make 50%, right?
But if I buy hype at $12 and it goes to $120, that's a 10x, right?
It's a lot easier to make money in a bull market, right?
You have to use a lot of leverage shorting to get a comparable return to upside volatility in crypto so i don't like
being a bear but this is what yeah this is what the people that have been here for multiple cycles
that you know have kind of been through the ups and the downs like this is kind of where you're
this is where you really need to focus if you if you want to take it seriously if you want to run
it back when the time is right this is where where you keep showing up every single day, even when it's not fun, right?
There's plenty of days where I'm like, nothing happened.
Price action was bullshit, blah, blah, blah.
Probably didn't need to show up today.
But you never know when that one big day is going to happen.
Either the big drop and you catch a short or the big reversal and you catch an entry.
One day can change your life, you an entry one day can change your life
you know one day can change your life so you just got to show up every single day but that's kind of
how i'm playing it wobby yeah that that's a real thing man it brings me back to uh those days in
2023 or like a big day on btc would be like a thousand dollar two thousand dollar move um
gosh dude what a time in the market and
and i would agree with that playing upside in crypto is is what this market is known for
crypto sucks until it does it and then you see uh the famous reversal candle in crypto where
a lot of people that get burned out uh they say, this rally will fail like all the rest. And I would agree. Hyperliquid
is probably one of the only tickers in the market where if it trades 30% to 50% lower than
over the course of 24 months, I mean, it's probably going to pan out in a very good way.
And something interesting that I'm looking for Hyperliquid to do is something similar to what BNB did during the last downturn in the market, where it does have that drawdown, but it doesn't really draw down as much as people think.
There's some dubious speculation that some believe that Hyperliquid is going to retrace all the way back down to $5 or something like that.
I don't know what to say to that to be frank i uh i really don't know but uh the beauty of this market is if you do show up
every day for those of you that are listening whether it's in good conditions or bad conditions
um there's something to be said about experience and uh there are some tickers out there perhaps like a hype uh or maybe
even a pump fund if if they survive this downturn and i don't know they don't get like zeroed out
from regulation or whatever that could be a potential prospect as well maybe even a monad
even um but uh we're gonna get some thoughts from. I know that there's a few of you guys
requesting. So I'm going to bring up Evan now. Evan, what's going on, man? What are your thoughts
on this price action? We had a little bit of a spike after CPI. Market doesn't really care about
that anymore. I think as some of the guys had stated up here on the panel, people are more
focused on what's going on in Japan.
Some people are saying that the U.S. is going to catch up to what Japan is doing.
And quite frankly, I don't think this Trump administration is going to allow for a rate hike.
Jerome Powell is practically done.
And the Fed doesn't really have to do anything for a couple of months, to be honest,
at all, if if anything unless something
breaks but uh feel free to give some of your thoughts man on today's price action yeah man
um always great to talk to you guys um yeah i mean it's obviously a fatiguing area i mean i you know
i'm going on what you said i think the most likely thing and i think kind of most of the betting odds
and most of where people are putting you know their money would support the view that not much is going to happen in terms of, you know,
rate cuts. You know, January is likely going to be a pause. I mean, you, you probably won't see a
pause, another cut, excuse me, until the next Fed share is in, I would assume. And the thing you got
to realize too, is like, there's one of two things that I think we'll talk about the macro a little
bit. One of two things I think is going to happen. One, you like there's one of two things that I think we'll talk about the macro a little bit.
One of two things I think is going to happen.
One, you see a much earlier, you know, kind of bottom than you normally see potentially in May.
I mean, let's keep in mind the ETH bottomed out in June of 2022. So if you see an earlier bottom, which generally things do bottom out earlier, unless that May of 2022 for Ethereum was just a fluke and you think Ethereum has no future.
Anything's possible. I still I think if anything that can outperform Bitcoin over the next four to six months,
I think has potential. So we would really want Ethereum to do that,
especially in an environment where if it can survive the test of going through these pauses,
which likely you'll see in January until the next Fed comes in, if it can that against Bitcoin those pauses then you would be in a really strong position there I think
keep in mind though a lot of people probably will get really excited in May new Fed share coming in
but what happens when you know you already know who that's going to be what happens when the betting
odds are over 90% who that new Fed share is going to be you know where things are going to go they
already gets priced into that gets factored into price. So just keep that in mind, you may see one last leg down kind of over the summer,
and then a potential bottom in October, that's kind of the latest I would see,
see the bottom being but I think anywhere in terms of accumulation for Bitcoin between May
to October is, is a huge, huge, you know, kind of area, in my opinion, getting more into kind of the
short term here, I just want to say quickly, you know, time person of the year, I'm sure you guys probably mentioned it before, you
know, architects of AI, that's generally a bubble signal, a sell signal. That reminds me of the
crypto Super Bowl that we saw in 2022. Obviously, more likely a sell signal, things like Palantir,
NVIDIA, Triple Q is even, like everything looks overheated in that department. I'm not saying it can't go higher, but it looks very overheated in my opinion. Now, if we look at more of the
short term here, I mean, there's going to be a bullish month at some point here. It's looking
less likely that it's going to be December unless something crazy happens, you know, in the next 10,
12 days, less likely every hour that goes by. I would think, you know, you look at your previous major
low that was in April of this year, I would think a slightly, you know, higher area than that,
maybe 79K, you know, somewhere in that area. Everyone thinks we're breaking down,
then we get a bullish January and we could run up to the big area that we always tend to retest
in these, you know, quote unquote, bear markets,
which is going to be your 200 daily moving average. When could you hit that? It's currently
at like 108K, you know, maybe it'll be at 102 to 100K at some point in January. And that could be
your kind of January rally. Now, keep in mind, the other thing to realize here is the last time
that the Fed paused after cutting was January of this year, January of 2025.
And what happened there, that was a pretty good sell signal.
So this coming January could be very similar to that situation.
You know, in terms of trading right now, I think it's like one of those markets where it's kind of like hedging the bets.
You know, I mean, I'm in like a long with a two to one risk reward to risk ratio and also short with a two to one road to risk ratio.
And, you know, you could be plenty of profitable with just winning one of those two trades.
And it's pretty rare that both of them kind of get stopped out.
And it's kind of like they kind of generally are going to become swing trades to interday trades in this type of environment.
Mostly swing trades is what I do.
So, you know, it's kind of about hedging your bets.
And I mean, the other thing, too, let's keep it as simple as possible. Like, what are the things that are outperforming that have
been outperforming Bitcoin the most? And, you know, I mean, S&P 500's outperformed Bitcoin a
lot since July. Interesting fact, there was a giant billionaire whale wallet that finally moved
after so many years. I think it was in July. So they timed that perfectly. I would assume they
put at least a little bit of those profits into the S&P 500. Other things that have been outperforming Bitcoin, you know, a lot. And
the only thing that's really in a true bull market still, I would say, is kind of gold.
And I would assume that gold could, you know, so far it's outperformed Bitcoin by since December
of 2024 by 100%. I'd assume you could maybe outperform it by another 50 to 100% over the
next four to six months maybe down
to eight months you know those kind of areas like that so that would be the safest bets you know if
you're if you're trying to put money into bitcoin maybe put into some of these things that have been
outperforming bitcoin and then transition more towards bitcoin when you see more signs of that
reversal when bitcoin starts to outperform those assets again um so that's the main you know
crust of what i would have right now it's fatiguing but the two things to keep your eye on keep an eye
on anything that i could outperform bitcoin for the next four to six months especially ethereum
and you know just keep an eye on that s p 500 bitcoin evaluation that gold bitcoin evaluation
so yeah what it wouldn't rates go lower if unemployment continues to trickle up?
That's something that I think would go against the consensus that the Fed wouldn't really be doing anything until April from projections right now.
Because in a way, this has sort of been like an unemployment semi-super cycle of sorts.
As AI continues to grow, some jobs are being replaced by a big degree.
Wouldn't that be something that perhaps would ignite a bullish incoming month, as you were
describing, Evan, despite some names being overheated locally?
The S&P can easily... Oh, Uncle Mike, what's up, man?
Feel free to give some of your thoughts.
How are you, man?
It's been quite some time.
Glad to have you back up here, brother.
I'm good, man.
I'm busy.
I've got a lot of stuff going.
I was just in Australia for a week for three, four days of iron board meetings,
and then I had a full day of backed board meetings and a dinner the night before this week,
still coming back from jet lag and right into the backed stuff.
And from my perspective, look,
I have a totally different perspective than it sounds like pretty much
everybody here.
I totally get that the charts are saying lower and the technicals are
negative and people are all of a sudden saying it's the end of the cycle and
that's all well and good. And that's fine.
It doesn't bother me one bit. My focus is on building businesses across
3, 5, 7, 9, 10, 15 years. All the wealth that I've generated is taking concentrated positions
in really good companies and holding them for a while. And I look for moments like now and like
April and like December 22 where a large percentage of market participants turn negative. And I'm always looking about where
to invest because I don't really care if we go 5% lower or even 15 or 20% lower. Like I'll want to
buy more if we do. But I actually think we're likely to reverse here at some point because I
think we hit the perfect storm of negativity around the
liquidity environment because of the government shutdown, because we have a Fed that's overly
activist and trying to defend against this phantom inflation that is purportedly going to be caused
by tariffs when in fact tariffs have actually caused a slowdown. And we have mismatched immigration
policy with the current economic environment. We have basically a bunch of things, I think, that are affecting the market that are in the very short term causing this air pocket, like the government shutdown.
But with a little bit of a lag, I think you're going to see liquidity come gushing in.
And I think governments globally are going to have to just print more money.
So, look, that all happened at the same time that people were looking for a Q4 2025 top in crypto.
That's what I was looking for since December 2022.
Q1 of 23, I took really large positions at that time with the idea that we would see some sort of definitive top that would be visible in retrospect.
I thought that would happen around now.
But as I've looked at the data and as I've adjusted my perception of everything that
I'm seeing, I think it's much more likely we're at an early to mid-cycle type environment
where because the liquidity cycles were not perfectly overlaid this time the way they
were in the last two crypto cycles, People have basically applied the previous cycle mentality to this cycle
because they assume that the halving has sort of a greater impact on Bitcoin and the rest of
crypto than it does. And it looks like because the Fed had the rates in the U.S. above a neutral
rate, like clearly in retrospect, you see the unemployment situation now. You see
inflation today. And I realize it's a truncated report of sorts. But you see those numbers and
you go, OK, the Fed's probably behind the curve. They've probably been restrictive a little bit
too long. We've effectively been in a restrictive environment since Q1 of 2022. We've never actually
had a crypto bull market at all. We've effectively been an elongated
bear cycle for crypto, with Bitcoin becoming decoupled because of institutional factors like
the ETF and treasury companies and gap accounting changes that allow you to hold it on the balance
sheet more easily, etc. And so it tricked a whole generation of people in crypto into believing
that we actually had a cycle when
we really didn't. So I think it's much more likely that 2026 is a really positive year.
And because for most people, 2025 was not a positive year. If you were along MSDR, you're
down. If you're along Solana, you're down. If you're along Ethereum, you're down. If you're
along just Bitcoin, you're down. You're slightly up if you own equities in the U.S.
And of course, small caps have gotten stronger as the year has gone on.
Biotech has gotten stronger as the year has gone on.
There's a couple of other sectors and different categories that you could point to.
But really, all of the oxygen went to AI.
It all went to AI data centers and chips and things like that.
And so we saw this huge rally in companies like Iron and Cypher and others.
And where we are now is we had a whole bunch of ridiculous narratives that don't match reality
that have been spoon-fed to the public via CNBC talking heads,
failed hedge fund managers like Michael Burry and Jim Chanos,
and a number of other quants and short sellers who are literally feeding this bogus information to the market. Then you actually have
credible people coming up, like the guy who runs equities at Goldman Sachs and who basically are
private investing at Goldman Sachs comes on and says, listen, like 90% of these data centers are
going to be funded with cash and cash flow and 10% went dead. No, by the way, we're doing the
debt financing and we wouldn't do it if we thought this was overextended.
I can tell you from firsthand,
just from what I've seen in the last couple of weeks,
the demand for infrastructure right now,
for AI is like off the charts.
I don't know where these false narratives are coming from,
but they don't match anything that I'm seeing
in the real world.
In the real world, every one of the top 10 or 15
acquirers of infrastructure for AI that needs infrastructure over the next 10 years
is saying that they need way more than what they have. And they're accelerating their process of
trying to acquire that. So certainly in the very short term, we're seeing a broadening of the
equity rally environment from six, seven, eight stocks to 490 something others,
which is positive, right? You're seeing more breadth. You're seeing rotations into value.
Areas where I've been sitting for a long time, like I'm seeing movement in stocks like Bristol
Myers Squibb and Pepsi and Target. I mean, I have big positions in these companies. They're a big
part of my barbell. I pair them with things like Bitcoin and AI data centers. That works really well because when AI data centers draw down, it turns
out pharma and staples and things like that tend to rally. But you want to see that. If this is the
mid-cycle correction and not some massive, dark bear market, like I see a number of people saying
it is, then what you'd want to see is exactly what's happening, a broadening of the equity participation to small caps, value stocks,
sectors outside of the MAG-7 and AI.
So I see an environment where you're going to see probably more strength in small caps
next year.
You're going to see more strength in the S&P, in the equal-weighted S&P, and in components
that are outside of MAG-7.
And I also think you're just going to see recovery
in some of the best names within the AI basket.
There's a thing going on right now where we're separating
the lower-quality companies like Oracle and CoreWeave
from the higher-quality ones.
And sure, most people are not smart enough or deep enough
in the space to know the difference,
so they just lump everything together and say AI is a bubble
without actually having any on-the-ground experience whatsoever. But that process of weeding out the good companies is just starting,
right? Like there's a bunch of investors, even large investors who are still dumb
on this and it may take them another quarter or two, but like the real quality companies
have a long way to go in terms of their growth runway. And so I don't lose any sleep over the
AI's contribution to the S&P. I think unemployment
is a real risk. I think the Fed is going to need to cut. I think the new Fed chair is going to cut
a couple hundred basis points at least next year and I don't really care what the current forecast
says because if something breaks or if we need more liquidity period they're going to do what
they need to do and then post the new Fed, they're going to they'll accelerate if they need to to make up for any boneheaded move that Powell and his team of wild chimpanzees is going to going to do between now and then.
Right. Like they were wrong this entire time about being in a neutral rate. And they're wrong now about needing to stay flat.
And just literally three, four weeks ago, people were saying the bond market's saying that they're not going to cut in December.
And then literally on a Thursday, a bunch of Fed spokesmen came out and said basically something really hawkish.
And then on a Friday, they said they're going to be dovish, and literally the whole market flipped over.
So you can't believe anything these people say.
You have to have a view as to what actually is going to need to happen.
And there are literally like $8 or $10 trillion of debt that need to be refinanced. So like they can say whatever they
want for the next week or month or whatever. They can job on the market to try to keep inflation
down. But at the end of the day, they're going to do what Treasury needs. They're going to do what
Trump needs. They're going to do what the government needs generally to fund itself.
And so I see a lot of people naively believing the bond market and believing these Fed governors who were literally paid to go out there
and job on the market because they're afraid of inflation. If unemployment starts to go up too
fast, they'll stop trying to deal with inflation. And I think we're starting to see that process now.
So I think there's going to be quite a bit of liquidity in 2026. I want to continue to be long the highest quality companies that I can find. Some of those companies
are AI related, but a lot of them are actually on the other side of the barbell, completely
dividend payers trading at a really low multiple of earnings. I think those companies are going to
do fine. And no matter what happens in the market, some of those companies will actually perform
quite well because they're not going to be trading with, you know, NVIDIA and Microsoft and Tesla and Meta and those types of companies.
So I would caution people about getting too negative here.
I'm pretty confident at some point in the next three to six months, you're going to look back and say, wow, that was wild that we were in this mass delusion of people in crypto saying the end was near and everything
is going to crash. And certainly if you've only been in crypto, low quality crypto and related
treasury companies, you're down a lot. You know, personally, I'm up almost 250% for the year,
year to date, in spite of holding concentrated positions in a lot of the names that have drawn
down in the last month, right?
And again, this is the benefit of focusing on the long term.
I don't really care what market says about the value of iron in the next week or two,
because I know exactly what iron is doing over the next year.
And maybe the market doesn't understand that yet.
And maybe the chart doesn't look good.
I know the chart squiggler people are saying, oh, we drew some lines and it's going to 12 or whatever.
But I don't, that's not how you run a business, right?
Like serious people that are on the board
and people that are running these companies
and raising billions of dollars
to build really high quality infrastructure,
they don't look at the chart at all.
I haven't looked at a chart for iron
like in any material way for two years.
That's how I was able to hold it from three to 75
right you if you looked at a chart you sold it 17 times between three and 15 and then you were
sidelined when it went from 15 to 75 so great like you were so smart you sold it at 60 now
uh and you're gonna buy it back at whatever uh but you didn't write it from three to 75 because
you used too many charts um so i would i people like, look, if you care more about being wealthy in the long run and less about like necessarily need to be right about everything or needing to be up every day or needing to avoid every drawdown, then you're really likely to be successful.
If your primal need is to avoid every drawdown, be right about every bear market.
need is to avoid every drawdown, be right about every bear market. By the way, all these guys who
called the bear market, this is the 17th or 25th time they've called for a bear market
since January 2023. So you could have made like 15, 20x in a whole bunch of stocks in the crypto
ecosystem in that timeline while they were calling the bear market 25 times. So great,
like you're calling again now. Why should any serious investor care about
that? What does that have to do with making long-term wealth, especially on a tax-adjusted,
long-term compounded basis? So anyway, I'm bullish. I don't care if other people are
bearish. In fact, I love the level of bearishness. I haven't seen this since April. And then the last
time that was this bearish before April was December of 2022. The
only difference then in December, 2022 is there was a little bit of apathy too. Now it's just
bearish with still some emotion and like people caring. But again, I think you'll look back in a
couple of months and be like, wow, that was really, really dumb personally. I'll go Mike,
so during this time period, what wine you suggest um that that we should that
we should all have to bring back some of those uh animal spirits that we saw earlier in the year
when you were already triggered what's coming in the next month because i bought a bottle of
petrus for the first time this is like a bottle that if you go to a steakhouse they charge you
like 12k or something for a single bottle right and i bought like three harlan estates it's probably the second best in
all of napa for cab my screaming eagle is probably the most famous those bottles go for like a
petrus maybe a little less um so i got some harlan for the holidays i got some petrus i'm drinking colgan tonight the ninth estate it's a
really nice bordeaux blend uh i don't wait until the market goes up to drink good wine i drink
good wine when the market's down a little bit um to summon the gods of bullish fervor it works
wonders um you know some people wait until like they have a big score to open the nice bottle or
whatever and then of course the market goes down, right? Because whenever you're feeling the most
euphoric and whenever you want to show people screenshots and whenever you have the highest
returns is usually when you get the correction that, that already happened, right? Like that
was for a lot of us in this space, that was like October, November for, if you were lucky enough
to be an iron and cipher this year, that was like early November, right? That was the peak of euphoria.
You had Microsoft and Amazon deals on the same day.
Bitcoin had already turned over a month earlier, but these stocks just kept going higher as they were becoming decoupled.
And I was drinking the best wine all the way through, all the way up, all through the summertime, all the way up.
up all through the summertime, all the way up. And now I'm going to bring that back now because
I'm pretty confident that if you open Screaming Eagle or Harlan or Petrus or Chateau Latour,
Lafitte Rothschild or Mouton Rothschild or Halt-Briand, any of these guys, that if you pop
those right now, we'll be going higher. So this is super mathematical and technical discussion here,
guys. But I drew some lines and it shows Petrus going up and it shows Bitcoin going up.
So, like, my technicals have never been wrong.
Man, we got to come up with a meme with this one, Uncle Mike.
I like your meme, by the way, with you getting on these calls.
It sets up for an interesting
discussion man but i think you know who we need to conquer mike we need to call kathy wood we need
to call kathy wood and get arc invest into all-time highs because whenever whenever uh
kathy's making money i mean the rest of the market is just she's out she's outperforming
99 of fundmen she's not outperform me, but I'm not really a good competition
because I have no risk management department.
I have no team of analysts and traders
and people trying to stop me from doing the right thing.
If you're in a constrained institutional environment
where you have an investment committee
and you have a compliance officer and a team of compliance people,
they're not going to let you do what you need to do to generate excess return.
Their job is to keep their job and to have you not lose LPs.
So you basically want to get as close to the benchmark return as possible.
Kathy's left the normal world this year.
I think she's still at 30-plus percent for the year.
She's crushing almost every hedge fund, almost every traditional
fund manager. We don't need her to go back to all time highs. We just need her to continue to float
above the crowd like this. And look, like this may be a statement about skill. I'm not, it's
unclear to me that she has any long-term skills. So it sort of doesn't matter, but it is sort of a proxy for less profitable tech,
things that most fund managers can't own
for various reasons
because they don't fit in their matrix.
And she, of course, has gotten Tesla right long-term,
but so have a lot of other people.
The only other comment I'd make is about next week.
I just think, when I think back over the last few years and I think about where we are right
now, and then I think about Thanksgiving, like Thanksgiving was the best three and a
half days of trading we've seen in like two months.
I think we're setting up for something potentially similar going into this week, partially because
the sentiment has just swung so negative.
People are expecting something really bad from Japan.
And something bad might happen. I don't know. Again, it doesn't really affect my investment
philosophy longer term. But if I had to speculate in the very short term, I think we've sort of
over-rotated, over-mean-reverted to prepare for some terrible downside scenario that I don't
necessarily see coming in the short term. I think we're sitting at support for a lot of things.
And I think if you were going to see any sort of holiday-related rally
on sort of low volatility where they just use that environment
to mark stuff up and take out shorts
and other people that are positioned negatively now,
this would be the environment you would see.
I mean, we've got three trading days.
We've got two and a half trading days, right?
Monday, Tuesday, half day Wednesday,
and then one day off and then a day Friday.
I would be willing to bet a million dollars that Friday,
like market this down right now,
that S&P and NASDAQ are up on Friday.
And I'd be willing to bet like half a million
that the S&P and NASDAQ are up on Wednesday.
And then I would be willing to bet, I don't know,
250 that it's up for the week or something.
And so my confidence goes down earlier in the, and it goes up as the week progresses.
But that's how I'm sort of thinking about next week.
And then I think whatever the tone is going into, if it's super positive by Friday of next week,
then there'll probably be a pullback in the last day of the year as people take profits
and lock in and crystallize their carry and their funds.
But if it's not super positive at the end of the week,
it's just sort of neutral.
Then I could see a pretty jagged rally early the following week,
like 29th and 30th within a sell off,
like right at the end as people take profits.
So it could go a lot of different ways, but my current thinking,
and again, this is just sport. Like I'm not investing around this at all.
I don't have any calls with that duration or anything like that.
But,
but I think,
I think it'd be dumb to think next week's going to be bearish just
because the last couple of weeks have felt really bearish personally.
Is anyone here willing to bet half a million dollars on a price action for
next week?
2020,
I mean, we don't have to 250 for
um for the full week 500 for wednesday and a million standalone for friday like if anyone
wants to fade me on friday price action i dare you to bet a million that s&p and nasdaq let's
just choose one let's just do the nasdaq well i mean we don't really have to because you're not
actually trading it so you know i mean because you're not actually trading it.
So, you know, I mean, some of us are actually trading it, and then others are just talking, you know.
No, if you take the trade with me, we're doing this one trade.
It's like a prediction market, dude. Do you know what a prediction market is?
No, I have my money where my mouth is, Mike. I'm actually trading the market, and then you're just talking.
Okay, so I knew you were going to do this because you're like a little child who comes in here and snaps at other people but listen i have 120 million dollars in the
market right now how much do you have in the market there it is you should you should take
the bet man you should you should do it silence i mean look kid comes on here i don't need to
talk anymore i mean i got a point i got here. I don't need to talk anymore. I mean, I got a point.
I got a million long. I want to bet a million. To everybody's point, Mike pulls on everybody's heartstrings.
All you have to do is just be invested for the next 20 years and you'll make money.
Don't worry about it. You don't have to trade a position.
Just throw money at shit. If you're in it, you'll make money.
That's all you got to do.
Poor kid. All right, guys. Well, it was fun.
Once Prometheus, once the kid's coming in. Wait, Prometheus? Mike, if you have a second, I's all you got to do. Poor kid. All right, guys. It was fun. Once Prometheus, once the kids
come in. Wait, Prometheus?
Mike, if you have a second, I just want to ask a question.
Wait, why are we mad? I don't get why.
We're not.
It's a sentiment. This is very
crypto-twittery. Hey, I just want to say thank you.
Listen, here's my squiggly lines.
Crayons on the back of an empty
ammo box, okay? That's as far as my
TA goes. On behalf of this community
all freaking year long during one of the hardest like years to trade or do anything in you guys
have just been an oasis in the desert a freaking lighthouse in the hurricane you guys are amazing
love you guys appreciate you guys hey hanak dude uh i i like your pin tweet, bro. It's actually pretty nice.
When you were thanking your followers at the time,
that's how I know you're always in the audience listening, man.
So, dude, I appreciate you coming on up here, man.
Feel free to give some of your thoughts on the market, man.
Man.
I think you've been up here in the past.
I have.
I appreciate you guys.
I'm a meme coiner, dude.
I don't have any business giving my opinion.
Okay.
Like, here's what I call, I don't want to use an offensive word.
Here's what I call the short bus, the short school bus TA, right?
We've been down for a long time.
We're going to go back up.
Okay.
That's just how this works.
Like, at some point, we're going back up.
The worst is behind us, in my opinion.
So that's how I feel. Also, I will say this. If there's one thing I got from you guys this last
year, watching the chorus of the unified herd come together and coalesce around one thesis,
which is it's all over and it begins today has got me bricked up because I was leading that herd
for years, right? As a blind dummy in the jungle who knew nothing about anything, right?
And, bro, every time we come together, like, for instance, November 2024, Trump just got in, 100K Bitcoin, golden bull run.
We're about to get rich.
Next month, it's all going to go down, right?
It's all going to happen.
Bro, and we were unified as one, like the dummies who have a 20K P&L on the timeline from a Solana meme coin.
Those guys, we were all singing together as one choir in that moment, bro.
You can pretty much book it that whatever everyone is unified around is not going to happen.
And so I'm looking around. I'm saying, OK, everyone is unified. The chorus has come back together.
But this time they're bearish.
They have been wrong every single time out of 347,313 times.
They've been wrong.
There's no way they're going to get it right.
So yeah, I trust them.
Anyways, thank you guys and i dude i i like i like the enthusiasm man i i like it when people are passionate
uh when they speak what have you what dude what have you been doing uh
like listening okay i got lucky i made a lot of money in memes
over the last x number of years and now i'm looking back and going oh God, you are a blind idiot in the jungle leading a herd of other blind idiots.
You actually don't know shit about shit.
And this was a very humbling year for me.
And so, bro, I've been in these spaces.
I've been pulling guys to the side who, like, know charts and know what Bitcoin dominance means, right?
And just learning.
And I think it's a great year to learn.
Yeah.
Yeah, dude.
I would agree on that.
And I also like Mike's point when it comes to like AI data centers
and all that stuff.
If you look at like the way crypto and equities behaved this year, altseason technically happened in that space in the equity markets.
You look at names like Sandisk.
I don't know if I'm pronouncing it correctly.
Sandisk.
They're an AI hardware company.
And they did like a 10x when they IPO'd back in May.
And what exactly 10x'd in May with essentially infinite size?
Let's get some thoughts from Bitcoin Mining Stock Guy.
What's going on, Brad?
Hey, I appreciate it.
I'm bullish on AI data centers.
I think that theme is still going to be strong. We haven't seen trillions of dollars invested or deployed by the strongest companies in
the world.
I've been waiting for crypto to start running.
I mean, what's going on with crypto?
I think you've got a large crypto audience here.
I've been a longtime crypto guy.
I got into the stock market because of crypto.
I'm an OG Bitcoiner.
And I think this is the year Ethereum starts perking up. I think over the next three years,
we'll see $11,000 Ethereum. We're seeing the institutional adoption of Ethereum. And we saw, you know, a bubble pop earlier this year with the treasuries like BMNR.
That was probably one of my best trades this year.
I got a 10x in three days.
Like, it was insane.
But it was pure luck.
It wasn't large size at all.
But I think Ethereum over the next three years is going to be really good.
But I think everyone's focus should be AI.
Like Mike said, he mentioned some of the names that I'm also very focused on.
The main bottleneck is power.
I think if you're digging around that area, it's hard to find better names than what Mike mentioned.
And that's what I'm really focused on right now.
That's based, man.
Did that 21 Capital thing go public already?
I think it has something to do with Tether.
Tether and South Bank are investors and they're one of the top, I want to say three or four
corporate Bitcoin holders in the world. And yeah, they did get their merger, reverse merger,
whatever done. I think it was the day after Anthony Pompliano started trading. I haven't
even looked at where they're trading.
I don't think it matters.
Anything like that, including Strive, including MetaPlanet, including MSDR,
they're entirely dependent on a sustained uptrend in Bitcoin,
something that we really haven't seen this year.
Obviously, we're down year-to-date.
The Trump presidency has been a great disappointment to crypto people.
I think the net result of Trump's policies have been liquidity restrictive.
Like if you scare the shit out of certain racial minorities because they're afraid of
immigration, if you scare tourists out of coming here, right?
If you scare businesses out of investing because of tariff nonsense, like I voted for the guy,
but like it's clear the net result has been negative.
And then you couple that with a level of grift coming out of that administration with the kids and like
every fucking business them cozying up with like people who committed fraud like tether historically
i mean they're fine now but like it's ridiculous to say that that's a good company uh so we are
where we are right like we are where we are i don't think Trump's going to let his legacy be that he destroyed the economy.
I don't think Jerome Powell wants to be blamed for destroying the economy either.
So I think you're going to see some nice alignment over the next six months.
Basically, the powers that be are going to do anything they can to hold markets up.
They may not say that that's what they're doing, but that's what they're going to do.
And Trump has a lot of catch-up to do because a lot of the stuff he's done up till now has been net negative for the economy. And that's going to piss off a
lot of like hardcore Republicans. I'm just an independent voter. I voted for who I thought
the best candidate was at the time, but I'm, I'm, because I'm not wedded to it. I can say honestly,
like, I think Trump's been a bit of a disappointment so far, but it's still early and he still has a chance to change the narrative and change the results.
So I think that's what we're going to see.
The next six months is going to be all about pushing the economy and running it as hard as possible and as hot as possible.
And I remember the crypto people back in March of 2020.
I remember this vividly on X.
They were fucking losing their minds saying the S&P was going to go to 1200 or something like the whole economy shutting the markets can't go up and i was
like you fucking clowns like the fed and treasury are going to do everything in their power to stop
and they're like it's not going to be enough bitcoin's going to go to zero and the s&p is
going to go to 1200 it's not that much less hysterical than what we're hearing now from a
lot of people who are like it's all over and bitcoin's going straight to 30 000 and it's not that much less hysterical than what we're hearing now from a lot of people who are like,
it's all over and Bitcoin's going straight to 30,000 and it's going to be a deep, dark depression for the next 6, 12 months.
And it's like, well, actually, if you look at the superstructure,
like you look at what actually drives the economy, we're in an early cycle dynamic, not a late cycle dynamic.
There's been virtually no euphoria at all this cycle.
Yeah, you can point at a couple of stocks in the S&P and you can point at Bitcoin and
you can use that as an example.
But unlike every other previous liquidity cycle over the last 15 years, there's been
no broad-based euphoria.
In fact, most people are losing money.
So that's not the conditions you typically see.
You don't see rates coming down in the process of coming down 300, 400 bps with a lot
more money printing likely to happen with two plus trillion dollar deficits with a midterm coming up
and with nobody making money. That's not the top. If anything, if anything, we're actually finishing
a bear market right now. And I know a lot of people, it's going to piss them off because
they're short and they don't want to hear that, but those people are going to be forced to cover in the next six months.
I agree with a lot of what you just said there, Mike, that there's actually quite a bit of
evidence to suggest that we are sort of early cycle rather than late cycle. Obviously, rates
dropping, QT coming to an end, things of that sort. I had one question for you.
What do you think about the constant kind of grind higher in U.S. unemployment? It's kind of
been a slow grind up since 2023. Are you worried about it at all or not really a concern at these
levels? I think it's real. I've been saying this, you know, you don't follow me and we don't talk,
but for more than a year now, we can change that. We should, we should change that. Okay. Well,
I've been, I've been saying for a long time that I think the Fed is way behind the curve and that
they're, they're focused on productivity and they think they don't say it as much as they should,
but they think AI is really helping productivity. And I actually think in the short term, it's a much bigger risk to unemployment than they believe it is.
And I think, as I said before, I think they've been restrictive, severely restrictive for two or three years.
And I think they've caused a bear market in crypto.
Now, they don't care about that.
That's not part of their mandate.
We do because we trade crypto, but they don't.
And so they're talking to their banker friends.
They always say we have good sources.
All that means is people who work at big banks, as if that's a good cross-section of society.
But that's the honest truth.
They just talk to their friends at Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley, and that's their representation of reality.
JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley, and that's their representation of reality.
So they are going to be responsible for a massive spike in unemployment if they don't
stop doing what they're doing.
They're having less of an impact on inflation than they think they are because it's actually
the deficit, right?
It's the fiscal side.
But they're having more of an impact in a negative way than they need to, right?
Because they're basically trying to solve a problem they negative way than they need to right like because they're
basically like they're basically trying to solve a problem they can't solve and so the only thing
they can do is make it worse they can't make it better so net net they should be doing exactly
what they've been doing over the last 10 or 15 years which is err on the side of cutting
and operating at a lower rate like i don't i don't think there's much euphoria personally
in the market and i think they're actually going to be responsible if they don't if they don't think there's much euphoria personally in the market. And I think they're actually going to be responsible if they don't change their direction.
They're going to be responsible for causing a spike in unemployment and maybe even directly
causing a recession.
It's hard to see that happening right now because GDP growth is still really strong
and the economy is still chugging along.
I mean, you go anywhere.
I was just in Australia.
It wasn't that much different.
Australia was busier than the US but like you go anywhere in
the US right now and look it may be K shaped and it may be mostly driven by
the wealthy but like the economy fucking booming like people are people are out
everywhere flying and staying in hotels and spending money on concert tickets
and eating out and like you can all the bears are gonna say oh well that's all
on credit cards,
and it's not real because I'm poor and I can't afford to do that.
It's like, who fucking cares?
Stop whining and go make more money.
Your arguments about the economy based on your own personal experience
of not being able to afford a nice dinner, it's not the economy's problem.
And the Fed claims they care about everyone,
and their mandate is to protect the American people.
No, they're protecting the bankers and asset prices.
And most importantly, they're protecting any source of strain in the system.
Anything in the fiat monetary system plumbing that breaks, they step in to fix it.
And so that's why we're buying $40 billion of short-term notes right now, right, every month.
They say it's to replenish the reserves because obviously there's some of these things that
are maturing.
But the reality is they're just going to do whatever they need to in order for their bank
or friends to be fine, which means that eventually they're going to drive Bitcoin back up.
And in the short term, if they don't lower rates, they're going to cause even more of
an unemployment problem.
You can argue that's structural, right? You can argue it has nothing to do with monetary policy. And maybe
that's correct. I don't know. But as I said, I think the issue is that right now the Fed can't
help. They can't retool people to survive AI. But by bringing rates or keeping rates too high,
they're going to cause companies to lay off those people more quickly than they otherwise would.
They're going to cause companies to lay off those people more quickly than they otherwise would.
So maybe all they can do is buy time at this point.
But I think unemployment probably will go up.
It probably will go up tick by tick like every quarter for a while now.
But I actually think the economy can boom for a while in that window as long as Fed and Treasury and everybody else gets in line to do what they always fucking do, which is print more money.
fed and treasury and everybody else gets in line to do what they always fucking do which is print
more money i think one of the things that's kind of kept us out of like a real recession so far is
like the gig economy uber drivers and all that and the reason i mentioned that is because waymo
you know self-driving cars i think that's we got a few more years before that really puts a big
dent in like the gig economy because you got to realize like when you lose your job right now you could easily drive uber do something even deliver food i mean
i know people like in brickle miami that like just deliver food on foot in brickle not even a car
not even a bike they're making like 30 bucks an hour once that and you're in you go to brickle
and you see what's happening you see the days are numbered because you see those little robots were moving
around.
That is scary,
bro.
Those robots are terrifying.
Yeah.
And it's crazy.
Cause like Brickle is literally the same five blocks,
bro.
It's Moxie's it's Gekko.
It's the Brickle city center.
And it's like the same 10 content creators shooting the same thing
over and over and over again like dude it was cool two years ago man but now it's like
it's getting really repetitive and it feels like a GTA server that's that's in like the PS3 era
where it's frozen it's like bro I saw you here like last month at the same time
i don't know man it's it's like a simulation i got sick of it man i rented out my condo there
i'm not i haven't even lived in brickle last year but i'm going back in like six months at least for
a little bit but but yeah yeah i like edgewater a lot more dude brickle feels like a prison if you look at the way um most of those
new buildings are um i'm saying i'm saying the new ones right like some of the og buildings right
uh i think it's the one it's the one with like it's the one that's built on native grounds
the one with like the stone heads to keep this discussion on track do you want to
talk about real estate versus equities because uh somebody posted that people now have more of
their american households now more of their net worth and equities than real estate and tom lee
was like oh maybe real estate's undervalued i thought that was kind of funny yeah there is a lot of development down here what i do notice is that like
they put way too many units in a small space so what you end up seeing is like a bunch of these
apartments that are basically built like storage units to the point where like a lot of the first
floor doesn't even have any windows it's it's it's it's kind of like
a black mirror episode and everyone's living with like five roommates so it's like yeah i live in
this high-end building but i live with five roommates and they all live with their significant
other it's really weird it kind of circles back to uh that saying, you'll own nothing and be happy.
And a lot of these buildings are rentals.
You can't even own them.
So you end up having all this, like, supply on the market at some point because people get sick of it.
And all the people that migrated over from other states, they end up leaving.
And all the people that migrated over from other states, they end up leaving.
And it just ends up being a building that eventually gets filled with, like, commercial stuff, restaurants, things like that.
But, yeah, I think, Mike, we were having that discussion, like, in regards to real estate, but more so talking about people that have most of their money in real estate and then porting that over into other markets.
As wealth eventually is going to be given to these newer generations.
It's all typical, right?
For a period of time, everybody loves crypto.
It's going up.
Money pours into crypto from other assets. Then crypto goes down. Money pours out. Real estate gets
popular for a while, and then people realize it's expensive to own and maintain, and they don't like
property taxes, and the property taxes are going up. And so the level of cash you need in order to
even maintain it is not great. And so then people pile into equities. I think we're in a moment now where after many decades of a lot of people thinking real estate, residential real
estate's the best investment asset class, you're seeing more and more people gravitate towards
equities, partially because of Robinhood and meme stock trading and the celebrity nature of some of
these big tech stocks now where these guys are like household names like Elon Musk is a household name.
And so a lot of people feel more comfortable owning Tesla than owning an apartment.
And that's actually been a better investment over the last 10 years, especially on an unlevered basis.
So anyway, the only the there was something else that we were talking about.
So the Waymo, I think Evan's point is a good one.
The number of things like Waymo,
like the delivery services, et cetera.
Think of every GPU in a data center as a worker.
And so you replace physical workers
who need health insurance and get sick
and don't show up and don't perform great and
they sue you and stuff and you replace them with GPUs.
It totally makes sense to the extent possible that a business would replace expensive human
labor with less expensive workers in the data center.
And again, speaks to kind of a longer term trajectory of the opportunity of people who control that environment.
You can argue all you want about whether or not ChetGPT or OpenAI currently is overvalued or needs more capital or whatever,
or whether or not there's a circular nature to some of their relationships.
You can argue that all you want.
What I think you can't win arguing on is the need over 20, 30, 40, 50 years for high quality physical
infrastructure to house all of these workers that are going to be doing all the jobs that
humans no longer will be doing, starting with lower level white collar work, like dumb accounting
and legal tasks that could be done by a machine much better at a lower cost and be correct
more often.
And then migrating to physical
labor with robots and things like that. I think people are just failing because we all live in
the short term society where we're all on social media and we're all getting our dopamine hacked
constantly by the shit. People stop thinking about the fact that we are accelerating. These
exponential technologies like Bitcoin and AI, etc., are accelerating. And so
what the world will look like in three or five years is probably substantially different than
what you believe it'll look like. And the computing requirements for some of these things are
substantially higher than what the market could possibly understand. Now, Satya Nadella at
Microsoft understands this, right? The CEOs of Met uh and and alphabet and these others understand this
but the average person isn't sitting around thinking about it and the average person who
watches jim kramer right is not thinking deeply about anything so you have to separate the
narratives coming from the jim kramers of the world and talking heads on cBC from the physical reality of these AI bots, these AI agents,
these robots, these networks of robots being workers that are going to be powered by this
AI brain that has to have a physical location.
And that theme, that thematic is going to keep coming back for 50 years.
It's probably going to be bigger than the the traditional internet data center a cpu business
from 20 25 years ago and that business grew 300 to 500 x from from the bottom of that uh 2002
bear market so where are we now like we're in the first second third inning of that and and just
like with the internet like if you think back to 2008 amazon apple google etc
got chopped down 60 to 80 percent uh in 9 to 12 months because of a problem that had nothing to do
with them right like think about it like strippers had eight houses uh with liar loans that like
weren't under it incorrectly and that had something to do with google no it had fucking nothing to do with google uh you could buy google 60 cheaper because because some stripper
took took out seven loans the same shit is playing out now you've got a bunch of idiots including
people on these spaces spouting off about some some things that have nothing to do with what's
actually happening in the physical world right so it's the same thing. You'll be able to buy, not Google,
you won't be able to buy Google 60% cheaper,
but you can buy a really high-quality AI data center company
for 50% less than last month
because you've got a bunch of clowns on the internet
who don't understand that the things they're talking about
have nothing to do with that company.
It's the same people who said,
because strippers bought seven houses,
the economy's fucked.
Well, yeah, the economy was a pain in the ass for for a year but then you bought
uh anywhere in sort of q4 of 2008 into q1 of 2009 and then you've gotten basically 15
uh 16 years of like yeah interrupted by covid interrupted by some volatility in 2010 or 2012 or 2018, right?
But like, who cares, right?
Like if you just draw a line, it's up and to the right.
So that was the internet.
The internet has been up and to the right since 2002, only interrupted by a great financial
crisis and nothing to do with it.
And that S-curve just continued.
And that's the thing
people just miss here. Macro is macro, and interest rates are interest rates, and short-term
securities prices are going to do what they're going to do. But none of those things can stop
robotics. None of those things can stop the global growth of AI and the way it envelops everything.
None of those things can stop the way Bitcoin is going to take over more and more. Not just the monetary system, but think about AI-enabled hackers, right? So somebody,
Jason Lowery posted this the other day. The strongest AI in the world is going to systematically
exploit every human defense that's based on traditional encryption, right? So the only way
to defend against that, you can't defend against it
by putting out flimsy technological barriers.
You actually need to have physical barriers
because the AIs,
they won't necessarily control enough robots
to break into a data center.
They need to break into all the data centers
simultaneously to do that.
So actually, Bitcoin, by being proof of work,
has created the exact defense mechanism you need to defend against a world where AI is attacking all of your cyber defenses.
And people, again, people are looking at their shoelaces and worrying about whether an MSDR is up or down 3% today.
And what I'm telling you is none of that's going to matter.
Because in 10 years, Bitcoin will be one of the biggest assets in the world simply because it's the only thing that the AIs haven't figured out how to attack successfully.
They'll be able to get into your Wells Fargo or JP Morgan bank account much sooner than they can hack Bitcoin.
Because in order to hack JP Morgan, it's a much easier process than hacking Bitcoin.
So anyway, people don't understand that yet.
That's the alpha, right?
The alpha is a bunch of people coming on here and talking about very short-term things like what bitcoin price is going to be in a week or something
right and what matters is is bitcoin strong enough to withstand the pressure from ai's attacks on
every human constructed cyber security mechanism
man that was a great cook mike jeff you had your hand up man welcome back bro thanks man i appreciate it
um you know also i'm also a uh big bull in ai uh major holder of iron and believer in ai
infrastructure but i do think there is a big theme that kind of piggybacks off of what mike
was saying that a lot of people are overlooking and that's batteries right right? AI is going to be producing robots, gadgets, EVs, evitols,
wearables, and so forth and so on. All of that is going to be battery powered.
Today, the American battery technology sector is rather small, and it's going to need to grow at
roughly 35 to 45 percent compound annual growth rate for the next five to 10 years. That's a
massive, massive,
massive opportunity for people to take advantage, especially if you're a picks and shovels type
investor. Just a couple things that in ways that you can spin it, right? It's a perfect storm for
batteries. One, you have the government and major companies investing in rare earth mining companies.
These are going to produce the raw materials
so that these companies can source them domestically
rather than overseas.
You've got a ban on military using batteries
for military use.
All the more need for American battery technology sector
to continue to rise.
And you have the products of AI, right?
There are several companies out there right now that are rather small that are really, really primed for growth, coming down. You got companies like QS and
SLDP who are producing batteries for Evitols. You've got Lighten, who's a private company.
I would definitely keep a lookout for them. If they hit the market, they're going to do big
things. Then you've also got battery powers for the batteries for the grid, right? Companies like Fluence and EOS Energy.
The need to source American-made batteries has never been more important than it is today.
And it is going to be an extremely important part for AI growth, aside from the infrastructure that you need at the base layer.
So I think there's a huge opportunity that people are overlooking when they talk about AI,
and I think it's a great picks and shovels play that's not really getting enough attention today.
I don't even own any of those stocks, but I thought that was pretty compelling.
Thanks, Jeff.
Based, man.
Matt, what's up, bro?
Feel free to give some of your thoughts on the conversation.
It's pretty apparent.
CPI doesn't really matter right now.
But what's up, bro?
We got Christmas coming up in seven days.
How was your week looking
here okay wabi yeah yeah how's your week looking like next week we got markets closed on the 24th
25th so basically markets are closed on thursday it's a half it's a half day on wednesday and a
full full day monday tuesday friday so it's three yeah three and up days of trading okay it's gonna
it's probably gonna be like thanksgiving week you know not uh lots of just sideways chop and
consolidation and i wouldn't expect anything major to i mean you know you can always have some sort
of crazy news catalyst but i would not i would not expect expect any major movement until early January.
And it's going to be firing right out of the gate. I think you have ADP private payrolls data January 6th,
and then the next BLS unemployment and non-farm payrolls January 9th.
So, yeah, we're going to following on.
I haven't we haven't spoken in a while, Mike, but I found myself nodding and agreeing to every one of his points like this.
I've been beating this dead horse to that.
and letting the labor market slip from red hot to neutral no growth to now,
I mean, Jerome Powell just admitted it last FOMC.
They think they've been having negative growth for several months in a row.
What the hell are they doing?
Just completely ignoring the other half of their mandate, you know, like, and then whether you
do or don't believe CPI's 2.6, I want to say, report today, it doesn't matter if unemployment
keeps going up a tenth of a percent, a tenth every month, month after month after month,
eventually you'll get to a tipping point where inflation will fall off a cliff because labor fell off a cliff.
It'll take care of itself. I think this is kind of the mistake the Fed was making back in 2007 and 2008. They justified, oh, we don't need to cut rates yet. Look at CPI. Look at inflation.
It's still hot. It's still above 2%. Look at gas prices. They dilly-dallied and waited and ignored weakening and no growth and then negative growth jobs data in late 2007 and in 2008.
And excused it because, oh, inflation was still, you know, up over 2% above their target.
And here we go again.
I'm not calling for a great recession.
I'm not calling for, oh, here, another financial crisis.
But they're clearly ignoring half of their mandate
and excusing it with like, well, what about CPI?
So we've had one month turn into one quarter, turn into half a year of poor jobs data.
In less than a month, we're going to get what happened in December. And my worry is,
and I was talking about this yesterday, Wabi, my worry is we're going to get a bunch of seasonal
layoffs and announcements as companies, big and small, let their holiday workforce go.
Okay, Thanksgiving's over. Christmas is over. We can let all those people go. And you've got
earnings coming up right after that. A bunch of companies are going to start also laying off a
fair few of their workforce just to make sure they meet and beat earnings. So this is not,
just to make sure they meet and beat earnings.
So this is not, the fundamentals don't suggest that,
oh, okay, here comes a big, you know,
a big bounce in labor market, a big bounce in jobs data.
In fact, it suggests that this trend is to be believed.
So, yeah, it's frustrating, but you can just watch them slow walk into this problem.
And my worry is they're not going to pivot until, let's call it early spring. And at that point,
you know, you tell me where the S&P 500 is. You tell me what Bitcoin has corrected down to.
I'm all happy to buy 2024 prices in 2026,
but it's so unnecessary.
I'll leave you with one more stat, actually two more stats.
So the multiple jobs narrative in the gig economy,
that is 100% correct.
We just hit a 20-year high, according to Fred data, St. Louis
federal Fed data, we just hit a 20-year high in multi-job holders. So I think it went back to
2001. But we have not had this percentage of the workforce holding more than one job,
this higher percent in over 20 years.
I don't think that's bullish.
No one would say that's bullish.
And then two, you've got...
Sorry, phone call.
There we go.
Yeah.
Okay.
And then two, we've got one more.
We've got one more Fed meeting in January.
And then right after that, we're going to have to do this whole song and dance of,
is the U.S. government going to shut down or not in late January?
And the previous shutdown did not help anyone's assets, did not help anyone's confidence
in markets. And now we got to do this whole thing over again, potentially in late January. So I
just think the Fed, for a lot of reasons, I mean, they need to lock the F in. They need to wake up.
It's worse than they're letting on. Or if you believe J-PAL and he seriously thinks that every jobs report is overstating their numbers by 60,000 jobs.
Well, then what are you doing with these little measly negative 25 basis point cuts and then no expectation of another cut till late spring until potentially
when J-PAL is leaving as Fed chair anyway. So, yeah, you know, we'll wait. We'll see.
We're going to find out. But yeah, first week of January could be incredibly volatile.
Well, and Matt, to your point with the labor market, the labor market is a very slow moving,
we'll call it being or object.
And when you get it going in one direction, it does not turn around on a dime.
You can go look at BLS data and look at the chart.
I mean, when we start meaningfully taking up or when unemployment
starts meaningfully taking up, that is, I mean, generally what that leads to is you're going to
see some form of blowout and unemployment in a meaningful way. And I think a lot of people right
now are hoping or, you know, thinking of the fact that, okay, we'll get to the point and then the
Fed will start cutting, right? But, or not that they'll start cutting, but we'll start printing, right? But nobody knows
exactly when that is. That could be in two months from now. That could be in 12 months from now,
right? And you could have a lot of turmoil from here until then. And the market right now,
like I said earlier in the space, is telling you to be proactive, telling you to
preserve your capital. It's telling you to protect what you've made over the past three years.
And it's important to take those signs, take note of it and act accordingly, right? And not turn a
blind eye of like, you know, oh, well, you know, because of, you know, our last bull market in 21,
which was largely an anomaly where you had literally
everything going up in a straight line together, where typical bull markets are not like that,
where you have sector-focused outperformance and certain sector underperformance.
So you don't need everything to be u you know, Uber, you know, Uber, you know, frothy, everything's,
you know, ridiculous. And the fact that everything's up, you know, like 30, 40% year today,
for it to be quote, unquote, like marking a top, like, if you look at it from 2000 to 2008,
I mean, the S&P made like, in 2008, it barely made a new all-time high over our 2000 top, right? And with that same frame of
mind, people think, oh, well, the IWM hasn't broken out to new all-time highs. Taking that
same frame of reference and frame of mind back in 2008, you would have been like, oh, well,
the S&P is not at new all-time highs. We haven't had our bull market yet.
The bull market's still coming.
Well, what then subsequently happened thereafter, after 2008, was the GFC.
And I'm not saying we're going to have a GFC-style event, but more so 21 was an anomaly. And to not use that in your, you know, in your equation or in your
formula. And with the job market, like you said, they're, they're late to the party. They're so
late to the party. They're so late to the party. So for some frame, for some frame of reference
for those listening, we started the year, we started the year in 2025 with months of plus 200, plus 150,000, plus 110,000, plus 130,000 jobs growth month after month after month.
You can either, you know, if you want to look at BLS's data or you want to look at ADP private payrolls didn't matter. Both of them only bullish. We finished the year with no growth,
no growth, negative growth, no growth. That's terrible. Like we've watched it go from
super strong to middling to no growth, negative growth in a little over a year. And the problem with that is, what does that say for
next earnings that's coming up quick? You know, at the end of the day, everyone from Apple to
Google to Amazon to Tesla, you name it, they all sell goods and services, period. And when you have
fewer customers tomorrow than you did today, I'm sorry, everyone takes an earnings hit.
That's fewer Microsoft Office subscriptions. That's fewer iPhones sold. That's fewer
Tesla Model 3s. It's fewer everything being bought. And we could get away with it
from 2022 all the way till now.
People will say, yeah, but unemployment has been rising for years, ever since 2020.
Well, yeah, sure.
Participation rate, sure.
But as long as you had jobs growth month after month, quarter after quarter, year after year,
that was still potentially more customers tomorrow than today.
Now it's shifted.
We've watched this back half of 2025.
It has flipped.
We've gone from no growth to now potentially negative growth. These companies with their 30 PE, their 50 PE, some of them triple digit PEs, this is not priced into their next earnings if they start missing their previous bullish expectations.
And what the analysts think was so easy to hit a year ago or half a year ago.
year ago or half a year ago. So yeah, I think a lot of these companies, the big ones who have
pricing power, who have some room to maneuver, we're going to see as soon as the holidays are
over, get ready for various layoff announcements. Amazon laying off another 50,000 workers, Apple,
you know, Meta, you know, all the MAG7, they will do what they have to
to make sure they meet and beat earnings.
But it's all the other companies,
the 490 other of the S&P 500
that maybe can't just lay off 10 to 20% of their workforce
just to juice the numbers.
And even still, that's only one quarter.
Great, that's one quarter.
You did some accounting hijinks
and you made technically a beat on your EPS.
But smart money will see right through that shit
and be like, great, well,
good luck doing that again in quarter two.
You know?
So anyway, long story short,
Fed needs to get their shit together
and recognize that one half of their mandate has absolutely flipped.
Stop with this like, well, we need to see, you know, we got to be data dependent.
Like, what are they even looking at anymore?
You've had a year of data and they're just refusing.
They're just being stubborn.
They're just refusing to react. Can you guys hear Wabi or is it just me?
I was waiting for you guys.
If you guys want to say anything else before I wrap up here,
minor stock guy,
if you want to say anything,
Jeff, if you want to say anything,ff if you want to say anything anyone else up
here if you guys have any last minute things feel free to feel free to do so oh i see mar he's
requesting to speak uh guys feel free to give us a follow by the way uh if you guys have been
enjoying the content you guys have been enjoying the stream here over the last two and a half hours
my name is wabi i host this show called market talk here on the because bitcoin account my personal profile is here as co-hosts if you
guys are enjoying the content you like what we've been discussing on all things markets crypto
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you guys can give us a follow follow all the speakers here and all these spaces are recorded
guys so um i'm to pass it over to Mar
And then that's going to be the wrap up
What's up
What's up Wabi
What's up guys
Mar what's up man
What's up bro
Hey man
What's up man
This will be quick
Matt
Do you truly believe these unemployment numbers
Because
You know I came
You know I saw for in 2008, 2009 If you know what I'm you know i suffered in 2008 2009 if you know
what i'm saying and those were the days that i truly did believe these numbers because i had a
hard time to find a job i work for a company that we're having a hard time hiring people people just
don't want to work and i got friends i got companies too that are, you know, paying pretty well and people just don't want to work.
Is this unemployment more like people just don't want to work compared to 2009 where people couldn't find work?
You know, I think we're going to have all bear market long to figure out exactly where the weakness and the rot was.
You know, I had a really simple thesis that I'll probably never be able to spot the bubble.
But we will see it in the labor data.
We'll see it in unemployment data.
We'll see it in the employment jobs reports of the economy going from red hot to neutral to negative.
And I think that's exactly what's playing out to Mike's point earlier.
Yeah, we'll be able to, we'll figure it out after the fact of like,
oh, BLS's data was less accurate than ADP private payrolls and all that stuff.
And oh, we were looking at initial jobless claims,
but actually continuing jobless claims was the real alpha, the real signal.
Yeah, we'll have plenty of time for after action.
But like right now, the move is to not bury your head in the sand
and to respect that like, hey, it is different than we started the year
and, you know and plan accordingly.
Hey, Mark, do you have a trading view?
No, no, no.
You don't have trading view?
Okay, so I posted a chart on my feed, and it's the unemployment level.
It said if you go and you look at that, whenever you see unemployment round out and
meaningfully start to uptick, it does not just turn around and roll over. Like things don't
just magically get better, right? It takes time.
Yep. So we're on track to be over 5% unemployment by call it March 2026. And when traditionally when we've crossed that level
in the U.S. for the last 25 years, it's been a recession every time. Now it could be a super
short, it could be a super short one. Think 2020. If all of a sudden Congress says here's five
trillion dollars, no one's fired. You know, here's five, here's, here's five trillion dollars no one's fired you know here's five here's here's five trillion
dollars every company gets a loan to stay to keep their doors open but i mean that was a let's face
it a once in 25 year event i don't know if we're gonna have have another one in less than five
years later so um you know i i think this probably looks more like the 2020, 2021.
I think this looks more like the 2000, 2001 tech correction.
Just, you know, swap out tech and fill in AI.
A lot of these food-gazy AI companies will probably not survive this.
The strong ones will crush and the weak ones will forget about and laugh about later.
But yeah, Prometheus is right. And unemployment ticking up slowly over time isn't a problem.
Again, as long as month after month, quarter after quarter, you are still seeing jobs growth.
as month after month, quarter after quarter, you are still seeing jobs growth. That just means that
there's more people participating in the market and looking for jobs. But as soon as you don't
have the jobs growth month after month, quarter after quarter, now that's the problem. Now you're
getting into fewer customers, fewer goods and services being sold, and people still searching unsuccessfully for work.
Matt, real quick, Wabi, sorry.
What was the unemployment rate in 2009 towards 2010-11?
It was like 6%, wasn't it?
Almost 6%.
Yeah, so I was just coming out of high school.
I remember this time well.
And in 2007, you had a low of unemployment of like,
call it low 4%, 4.2, 4.3, 4.4.
By New Year's 2008, it had gone all the way up to 5% and passed.
So in a little more than half a year, it had gone from low 4% to 5% and over. And I mean,
again, not calling for a great financial crisis, but we're doing that same exact trajectory.
But we're doing that same exact trajectory.
And in the back half of 2007, you had multiple, multiple months of no growth, negative growth, no growth, jobs data, jobs reports.
And every single talking head back at the time, you name it, Bloomberg, CNBC, they kept telling you, like, look at the S&P 500, look at NASDAQ,
look at the tech stocks back then. Don't believe your lying eyes. This is a strong economy.
Jobs will bounce back for some reason. And that was all wrong. It was all, no, jobs data was the
signal. And they gave you multiple months, almost half a year of warning.
And then we know what happened in 2008.
It was basically down only from January.
All right, guys, I'm going to go ahead and wrap it up here.
I want to thank all the speakers.
I want to thank Matt.
I want to thank Minor, Mar, Jeff, Methus, Louis, Max, Mike,
everybody else who came up as well, if I'm forgetting any names.
Oh, sorry about that, guys.
I went on mute for a bit.
But we'll be back tomorrow at the same time.
But as I said, guys, if you've been enjoying the show, if you've been enjoying the content over the last two and a half hours, almost three hours, we are BecauseBitcoin.
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So we'll see you all tomorrow at the same time.
I want to thank my Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ, for allowing me a day of health to talk markets with you guys a few days ago.
I was honestly severely under the weather, but I'm glad to be back with you all.
Once again, shout out to all the speakers who make this possible and uh all of you guys as well for making this possible without an audience this show
would honestly probably not even be live to be frank um but i know there's a lot of you
requesting to speak but i'll bring you guys up tomorrow we've been going on for almost three
hours today and i got a call to catch up on so So guys, take care and we'll see you all tomorrow. Peace
guys. Later. Thank you. I'm going to go look at this. Thank you. Who's afraid to speak to my parents? you oh
later You okay? You okay? You okay?
You okay?
You okay?
You okay?
You okay?
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You okay?
You okay? You okay? I'm going to get it. I'm going to get it. I'm going to get it.
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I'm going to get it. I'm going to go. I'm going to go. I'm going to go. I'm going to go. I'm going to go.
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Insights
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