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Market Talk- Is the Bull Market over!? Time to buy the dip!?
Recorded: Sept. 25, 2025 Duration: 1:11:31Space Recording
Short Summary
In a lively discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored the recent explosive growth in the market, highlighting significant token performances and the cyclical nature of crypto trends. With new token launches and a potential resurgence of retail interest, the conversation underscored the importance of active trading and market dynamics in shaping future opportunities.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. I'm just... Oh Oh Oh, my God. Music Music Music
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Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Oh
Gary oh January 24th, I'm Weston Rock January, I am top
January 24th, I'm Weston Rock
January 24th, I'm Weston Rock
January 24th, I'm Weston Rock
January 24th, I'm Weston Rock Oh Yeah. I'm going to go. music Thank you. Wow! Music I love the peace and the humble trouble while you're crying! I'm leaving.
I'm leaving.
You can't.
Before you fail,
when you find an awesome person you play,
night is up to the main,
and you're holding a dream of fame,
die in the sky. I'm leaving. I'm fixed. All right. guys welcome back to market talk welcome back man man, I feel pretty great today. I drank some Vos water and I'm honestly
excited to talk about markets today. It's something to take note of whenever there's
a plethora of people complaining about market conditions because i i frankly don't know what it is they're
talking about q2 was insane q3 was even more insane um the last six weeks were honestly
incredible uh troll sent to 300 mil also 300 mil we were talking about that one at like 30
uh bucky sent to 50 mil in like a week. Useless went to almost half a bill in
market cap. Solana went to 250. Bonk also had a run. Pengu also had a run. Pump did like a 3x in
like a week and a half. And then rotating that into Aston, rotating that into stable.
It's been a trainer's market this entire cycle and as i stated uh during yesterday's show
and the show oh hold on donnie sent me a message oh brave browser geez man
brave browser i remember using that thing in like 2018 2019 man um man. What was the issue, Donny?
Does it even work?
Does it suck now?
I think, no, no, it works.
It works.
I jumped on Google Chrome.
Oh, yeah, man.
Man, Brave Browser is kind of like an unk browser now at this point.
Bro, I'm about to change my default browser, bro.
Yeah, yeah, man. um brave browser used to be something
a couple years back but i i deleted that off of uh off of um the products that i use now man
i think like the only few crypto products that are actually worth using is uh phantom
that are actually worth using is uh phantom and pump um uniswap god man that's like ancient tech
at this point man like wow you can swap it was revolutionary at the time right like five years
ago but it's kind of the standard now man when it comes to actual crypto tech um pump seems to be that product market fit and some
of these perp decks is but uh either way man like the last few months since we bottomed in april
it has been a game of rotation and if you just like honestly if you're just active like it's it's
it's clear as day i think it's because there are many people that use this site to counter trade And if they don't actually like someone they actually won't go on the trade right like a
XYZ person is bullish shot time to be bearish
XYZ person is bearish time to be bullish and it's always on on certain assets man and
Unfortunately, there are a lot of allcoins that have just made lower highs since their May local peak.
You guys remember when Mudang and a bunch of other stuff had these massive complacency bounces going into early May?
And then they just did nothing after that except lower high after lower high after lower high.
And I think what we were discussing yesterday, we were talking about others BTC and what that might look like.
And I think even Donnie mentioned it a couple of weeks ago, how like the rally that others BTC is going to have once it goes into price discovery, it's probably going to be fueled by a lot of tokens that aren't even out in the market yet.
tokens that aren't even out in the market yet and we take a look at some of these most recent launches
like an aster like an avantis like a stable coins that launch at 100 mil circa already
and that are deemed by the market for whatever reason is too high of a market cap
those can shock people and i remember saying that about hyper liquid when it was starting to
pump off of it slow, when it pumped from like eight bucks back into the teens. I was mentioning
how there are high caps a lot of the time that end up shocking people. The fact of the matter is,
man, retail is not going to be here for some time. least i don't really think so and that's why you haven't
really seen a lot of these pumps be sustainable uh it's just a hot pocket of uh of rotation games
and even if we look at last cycle right rotations have always been a part of uh of crypto defy had
mostly peaked in late i think it was like late Q3. And then we had an echo
bubble bounce in Q1 where Aave and Synthetix both peaked out in Q1. And for the rest of the cycle,
if you weren't in L1s, and if you didn't rotate out of L1s and Q4 into NFTs, then you severely underperformed.
And look at this cycle.
Everyone remembers Rollbit, Celestia, Say, those Unc 2023 names, and then 2024.
I'm not even going to mention some of the names in 2024 because some of you guys already know what I'm going to mention.
And quite frankly, I don't really feel like dealing with that drama but um to be frank man like it's just fundamental
season and we have these seasons it seems like every late q3 going into q4 we've had these
rotation shifts to fundamentals right uh in, the rotation was into Solana.
And I remember the sentiment.
It was like, oh, why would anybody buy Solana over ETH?
ETH, ETH, ETH.
It was like this weird nerd mentality.
And Solana ended up doing like a, what was it?
Like a 12X from September all the way to March.
And on chain, we had neon prime orca a ton of
other stuff as well um like say tia etc etc and even in q4 of last year when ghost started to pump
we started to see some fundamental names like virtuals come right off the bat man um
and then of course everyone else already happens after that when virtual started.
AI16Z, VVifu, et cetera.
A bunch of other fundamental plays like ARK.
And here we are again, right?
And preceding that, there's always a meme run.
In 2024, I'm sure you guys remember GigaChad.
Billy was another one.
Retardio.
And in 2023, I don't even think we had a meme season.
I think Mog pumped pretty hard in 2023 in the summer.
It pumped from like 2 mil to like 50.
And I think also those hamster races as well.
TickerBitcoin also did pretty well in the summer.
And I think SPX 6900 was one of the few memes that actually continued to outperform last year from late Q3 going into Q4.
But after mid-October, it was just straight fundamentals. And fundamentals is usually what drives that next leg up because I think now it's just
consensus that a lot of the people that are active in this market, they've made their
voices heard to a point where any new market participants that have kind of tapped into
CT know, like, well, if I buy XYZ token, they're just going to dump on me, right?
Just going to be some massive pump and dump.
And even though markets as a whole are just what is someone willing to buy, right?
The fair market price, buyers and sellers.
But with crypto, it's just been been this and i think it needs to be
fixed there's this mentality of like oh once retail comes in we're gonna dump on them right
retail is gonna buy our memes and then we're gonna dump on them and i really shouldn't be like that
to be honest and what i was gonna say is um i kind of lost my train of thought, but I just think that fundamentals have to continue to take the charge here.
And then once you see the memes and all that stuff starting to pump heavily and above that 300 mil level, to be frank, it seems like that's been sort of a glass ceiling.
300 mil, 400 mil.
We saw that last year with Billy, Moo Moo over the summer of last year.
I think that was the first major top for Giga, 200 mil.
And then it just crashed and burned in August.
Before, of course, everything ran to new highs.
But there has to be something new in the market, in my opinion.
Maybe it's these perpdexes to ignite some froth where you have fundamentals pump because these large buyers of these tradfire institutions that have been buying hyperliquid and all that stuff start to expand.
And then you have your froth.
and I say that because how is it that IWM has been chatting but it's only been a handful of
alts that have outperformed right it seems like it seems like a lot of the people that wanted to
buy in Woodside's are kind of just waiting for things to die down a lot even more so than they
are right now and what's going to continue to pump are things with notional buyers, right?
I make this blank statement sometimes that sometimes when there are more buyers and sellers,
the price ends up going up.
And sometimes that just happens, right?
Things like Aster, things like Stable.
And right now, the sentiment is kind of like, oh, I'm just going to wait like aster things like stable and right now the sentiment is kind of like
oh i'm just gonna wait for a massive correction and then i'm gonna buy in right and then i'll get
my entry but sometimes that entry isn't even there because it's it's the only things that
show any kind of interest and i admitted this yesterday and on the show before where it's like we're probably just going
to get the same thing that we've gotten um over the last few years and to be honest like this
FOMC was kind of disappointing um quantitative tightening didn't even end so like what is what
does that say about the market right um it means that we should probably
be more proactive with our positioning and not just hodling waiting for like some magical stars
to align because then you just end up being a japanese war soldier on an island um you guys know that story where, uh, where, uh, the Japanese army had left one specific,
one specific soldier on an Island.
And he ends up being stranded there for like 30 years before they pick them up.
And for 30 years, he still thought the war was going on.
Like there is someone still out there that thinks rollbit is going to ten dollars
they are the japanese war soldier and there's a lot of others there's a lot of japanese war
soldiers out there and that's just that just is what it is man that's just a part of the market
right um i mean just look at what happened with xr right? They were abandoned on an island for multiple years, and they finally got rescued.
And it went into price discovery for a short period of time.
But nonetheless, I think I'm yapping for a bit too long.
But one thing that I'll stress is that just because you think something is in devalued
territory doesn't mean that the market is going to deem it so you can draw all the lines all the
rsis all the divergences and all that stuff but if there's no willing buyer then it's just not
going to do anything and unfortunately rather for some people fortunately because the signal
is greater than the noise.
It's not just going to be throw a dart and everything goes up, at least not in the short term.
But given that we are in late September, I think it's pretty stupid to be bearish.
I think it's like the most ridiculous thing that you can possibly do.
But for outperformers, like the market has shown time and time and time
and time again that it's just going to be sector-based and that's just the reality of it
um i even remember in like mid-december i remember when these shows ended up just being talking about AI, AI, AI, AI. And I remember like tuning into other spaces
and they were saying, no, just wait for this sector.
Just wait for liquidity to rotate out of AI into this.
And it's like, we're not understanding that
just because there's a notional buyer for a certain asset
doesn't mean it's going to trickle down to your asset right
and i think i'm i think i'm going to pass the mic now guys before i uh yeah for too long but
show some love to the space y'all click the spaces tab once you guys do that you'll see a nice link above our profile picture that says x.com slash i slash faces.
Smash up the like button.
Hit up that retweet button.
And I also forgot to mention SBF did tweet out GM, which I don't really think means anything, to be honest.
I don't really think it means a a single thing i don't think he's
gonna come out with a perp decks either i know drift is like a perp decks that's built within
solana um but you can't compare that to an aster which is like CZ's baby. What do you think would do better, SPF's, PerpDix's, or CZ's in the short term?
Man, to be honest, I think if that were to happen,
I think it would just be like a small pump for like a four-hour candle
and then a massive drive down accumulation and then it
probably does good um and that's just because it ties into the narrative right like if sbf were to
release a meme coin it wouldn't do anything because like bro memes are not doing a single thing
until pump is in price discovery and i mean like well into price discovery and you'd probably need Solana and ETH both in price discovery for memes to do well.
And I will be confident in that statement.
These spaces are recorded.
Any thesis that I've given can be trailed here on these spaces since December of 2022.
And so far I've been more right than wrong.
And I do think that time is coming nonetheless,
like both ETH and SOUL in price discovery,
it's just probably gonna take a bit more time.
Originally I had thought that like,
it would have happened like last week or the week before.
I think ETH was at like 4,700 and SOL was pushing up against 250.
I'm like, all right, cool.
Things look ready to rock and roll.
And it did it.
And thankfully, these new tokens came out last week and we were able to to uh ride those waves even though the broader market kind of
took a took a dookie and isn't really doing much now and it's caught up with
what september slash august is known for um and and that's the thing right like you can be wrong
on majors but you could be right on uh on on slash alts, which is what most of us here play, to be honest.
And truthfully, like if if all you've been doing is just like trailing Bitcoin dominance or Bitcoin, Ethan's whole price the entire cycle to give you a gauge on what alts are doing, then you've just performed pretty disastrous.
And we can go back to like Q4 of 23, right?
Most of the move on BTC in Q4 ended by mid-November.
And from mid-November to early January, alts all went ballistic just look at others BTC
same thing when we talk about on chain right when we talk about on chain most of the move on
Seoul ETH and BTC happened by like the first going into the second week of March. And from March to June, on-chain was absolutely lit.
So majors could absolutely range for a couple more months,
and certain alts can do well.
But I do have some dubious speculation, again, just dubious speculation,
that at least BTC can just rip into price discovery like next week.
That's just some dubious speculation, man.
Just really dubious speculation.
Again, just dubious speculation.
But my base case is just like writing these alts that have big notional buyers, bro.
Like ETH has done these like local downtrends and some alts have still done well.
Like when AI was ripping, dude, ETH had a downturn from like 4K down to 3,100 in December of last year.
And AI still went nuts so if we're gonna have that trade with
some of these bigger sized alts then that's perfect in my opinion we also had xrpl launch today
which is a which is that defy protocol um on xrp and um that got launched on hyperliquid
And that got launched on Hyperliquid.
And that's been doing well.
I think Plasma is also launching today.
So you're starting to have these big names with actual buyers and not just waiting on retail.
Maybe I'm a bit of an unk for saying that, but I just don't see retail popping up like next week or next month i
think it's just like these big boy firms i don't even think we need retail to be honest retail is
not buying bitcoin they're not buying e they're not buying soul um i think the only retail interest
that we had was that small period in q4 of last year and that's that's strictly just going based off of
like market check numbers i remember at some point um market check was having like
like 4 000 views and now it's back to like a thousand, which is literal like 2023 bottom style numbers.
And YouTube is like a clear metric of what you'd call retail coming into the market.
Right.
It's like your retail onk.
Those are going to be the ones that buy Doge.
Those are going to be the ones that buy Chainlink.
Those are going to be the ones that buy Chainlink. Those are going to be the ones that buy your tokens on Coinbase. All they do is they download Coinbase or they download Kraken and they buy what's trending. I think Ben Cowan talks about this a lot, the social risk.
And that peaked out in Q4 of last year. We had a massive spike going into the election.
And then after the election, it started to die down.
And we had like a small spike with Trump and Melania token.
And that was it, man.
And that was it.
So as far as like retail coming back, I think that's what's going to prolong this cycle.
But after you start seeing the Coinbase app start to rank up a bit more, I think that's when you can say, all right,
whatever you want to call retail is about to come in, but they're probably not going to buy the
bags that you think, to be honest, especially with pump fund garnering interest. Like this market is just going to
make you sink. Whenever you're going to buy something outside of majors, it's just going
to have you think, which is honestly a shocker to some people, right? Like, wow, I actually have to
think, but nonetheless, I got Prometheus, Matt, and Donnie up here.
Matt posted.
You know I was right, Wabi.
Come on, one month later.
Yeah, thankfully I didn't actually buy ETH though.
I did have like, I remember it was like one space where I said like, what if ETH is following what Bitcoin did last year when the ETFs went live and then has that breakout like right above its previous all time high and then follows BTCc right um but there is a possibility and i and i do think east still goes to like 10k
or 15 just not this year just not this year like i thought what really threw a wrench
in my like belief was quantitative tightening not stopping and that's the thing with this market
right like when you're super super super bulled up like you get a ton of engagement uh people want to interact with you
but then like when you apply like actual sound analysis like what's in front of you that's when
it's like oh man all the depression and all that stuff and it's like bro like if anyone has kept up with this show anybody at all we gave hyper
liquid at the single digits we gave pengu at that higher low in late june we gave pump at below
003 we gave aster right at launch same thing with a ton of other names as well. Troll at 30 mil. Bucky at like 2, 3 mil.
And then when you have these pullbacks followed by like choppy volatility, it's like, ah,
man, the market conditions, the market conditions, what's going on?
And it's like, well, what's going on is that you probably didn't position when these theses were given right in front of you with thought and also content that's not catered around one token, right? that crypto can give you multi-generational,
not multi-generational,
but multi-year type returns
that equity markets can't give.
It's something greater than what HUD has done
over the last 12 months.
And then you have like a few weeks
where like there's not as much breadth
and then it's like the apocalypse, right?
And it just goes to show that like,
unfortunately, there are still market participants that whenever they have unrealized gains, they take those unrealized gains and they blow it up on leverage.
They actually blow it by longing or shorting on leverage.
When in reality, spot always wins and leverage should be used as a tool.
But as far as ETH i i i've i've
completely like given up on that um let it range for a couple more weeks let it range for a couple
more i'm saying short term like let it range for a couple more weeks maybe a spike to like 42 4300 but um like the best the best thing that has honestly happened is like
eth went to 5k and soul on chain was lit right um i hope eth surprises me right um
i know it might sound a bit like too mid curve or right curve to say this but like quantitative tightening not ending just
like kind of dampers my uh short to midterm expectations um on ethereum because there's
only so many yards that like tom lee other tom lees can throw at it right um so i i would just
assume just being like just being conservative right i know the 1618 like the
macro 1618 on eth is at like 5800 correct me if i'm wrong prometheus but isn't like the 1618 on
eth at like yeah you're right yeah like 5800 5900 um so that would be like my first term thing but like if you if you see eth break out to like
break out of 5k and like you don't see assets within eth trending then it's like yo like there
is there's just no there's just no retail like there's there's no interest is it just going to
be sole on chain again and to me me, that'd be fine, right?
We adapt to these market conditions.
But I do think like you'd need ETH above 6K
to actually get that market-wide breadth
that we saw in 2023.
Like you would need majors significantly higher.
About 5k. I think if you truly flipped the 2021 all-time high from resistance to support, then you get it.
I mean, come on, that's confirmation.
ETH's a 5 billion market cap now.
Excuse me, ETH is a 500 billion market cap now or excuse me excuse me eth is a 500 billion market cap now obviously you need serious
buying power and trad fi pushing it to get it above that uh multi-year resistance so when it
happens when it happens that should be absolute signal to you but that's the point and that's
what i was trying to make last month that like everyone's getting way too bullish
when you're coming up on a multi-year resistance.
And I was just pleading with people like,
take some profits at $4,500.
Take some profits at $4,700.
Make Tom Lee and TradFi push price the last 10%.
Lock in that 150%.
What are you guys doing?
But no, as you know, most people,
they see the big, giant
green candles, and
whatever clicks in their head, they think,
now I've got to push the margin.
Now I've got to push the leverage.
And fuck, if they're not already
liquidated right now, they're sweating bullets.
Matt, is there any way
to see the flows?
Is there any platform
that allows you to see direct flows from coinbase when
it comes to like retail participants right i'm not talking about flows like oh xyz account bought
like 100k 200k worth of eth no i'm talking about like flows from smaller accounts that are buying
like 200 bucks of eth 300 bucks of soul of SOUL, little things like that.
Because that's what I would assume that retail would be, right?
How is it that the only flows that people want to discuss are like, oh, BlackRock bought half a yard of Bitcoin, when in reality, it's not even Larry Fink.
It's their clients, right?
It's their clients that are giving out his flows.
So is there any platform that allows us to see those kind of flows, man?
I mean, there probably is, but I don't get too wrapped up in who's buying
because you can play that game all day long and all night too, like
trying to wrap your head around like, is it the Middle East?
Is it Wall Street?
Is it TradFi?
Is it Main Street?
Is it retail?
Is it some oil oligarch?
In the end, it really doesn't matter because if they're buying bags and bags of Bitcoin or ETH or whatever,
like, does it even matter?
They're going to push price up regardless of who owns the wallet.
So when I see ETH, 500 billion market cap, struggling at the 2021 previous all-time high,
high, the previous resistance, like, you got to, you got to take that for signal, you got to like,
the previous resistance, like, you got to take that for signal.
all right, like, people are either taking profits, or everyone's waiting for the next guy to buy
higher. And if no one does, you know, a correction is imminent. And then and same thing with Bitcoin,
like Bitcoin, over $2 trillion market cap. Now, it really doesn't matter if it's retailer,
TradFi or BlackRockrock or fidelity or whoever
is currently pushing uh the price higher if price struggles to move higher that's your answer right
help me out donnie you guys have said a lot of stuff but before that before that guys i just
want to put something up on the nest so So I tweeted this on my personal profile.
So I'm going to put it up on the nest and it's a poll for you guys.
There's not that many people on the stream right now.
This is usually like the lower end of what we've been getting.
So there's like there's almost 400 of you.
Right.
So I put something up on the nest.
Just click the spaces tab.
Look up over our profile pictures, all that stuff.
And then right above, you'll see a poll from my personal profile that says,
Does ETH and Sol make new all-time highs in Q4?
If you guys think that they're both going to make all-time highs in Q4, go ahead and vote yes.
And if you don't, go ahead and vote no.
Matt, do you think Sol and ETH
make all-time highs in Q4?
Donnie, do you think?
Yeah, I'm going to say yes.
If I had to guess, I'll say yes.
I'm bullish on the rest of the year.
Donnie, do you think ETH and Sol
make all-time highs in Q4?
I got a long answer to that
most likely but there is a chance that btc leads this next rally right and kind of the later date
that i have for that is mid to late november for the all-time high breakout and a really strong
breakout but that could mean that ethan soul are kind of still going up,
but lagging behind it.
And it could transition into like December, January.
So it could be like right on the transition of new years.
Prometheus, do you think Ethan Sol make all-time highs in Q4?
I think there's a better chance than not.
I mean, looking at the total two, total three chart,
I mean, we had a massive decoupling over the past few weeks
from just
broader risk on assets across the board and not just crypto, but TradFi as well. And right now
we're seeing kind of more of a recoupling and falling back in line with this broader pullback
from Bitcoin. It's only a matter of time with the sell-off, but I mean, long story short, yes.
And I think too, if you look at the regressive nature of kind of the potential returns, especially in Bitcoin as of right now, it's pushing capital out onto the risk curve.
Don't forget gold.
Look at gold.
Yeah, that too.
You guys are going to have to excuse me.
XPL is actually the ticker for plasma
yeah bro i texted that to you last night in the group chat bro yeah i i thought i thought we were
talking about xrppl it's like some no no no dude this thing has a market cap already of 2.4 bill.
FDV's at like nine bill.
13, bro.
Is that 13 already?
Oh my gosh.
It was at nine earlier when I checked it.
That's when I looked at it.
Jeez, man.
That is nuts.
This thing basically flipped Aster.
Yeah.
I mean, too, if you look at it, I think a lot of people are really,
I think people are chasing it pretty hard,
especially the people that missed like Aster stable Avantis.
You know, a lot of people miss the perps trade. And to your point, Wabi, about like people having to think,
I put out like a huge thread two weeks ago on September 16th
about the perps market and how it's going to be bullish and why I'm bullish on Avantis, you know,
before this narrative even got on anybody's radar and nobody was interested in it. It's crazy. But
if I like tweet out some, like, I like, I don't even know, like the top 50 is going to shift.
It gets a ton of attention on the timeline it's so ass backwards it's insane
yeah it's it's because like with uh hold on with like small accounts like people tend to like
ignore them for whatever reason um but hold on give me it's not just that they want to yeah they want to buy a massive green
candle you know yeah yeah like they don't want to be some people don't want to be early they want
to they want to buy after it's already gone up 100 200 yeah i was just saying like as far as like
theses goes like if if if there if there isn't like a large account like 50k plus that tweets out a thesis
like it just often gets sort of faded man um which is which is unfortunate to be honest it's
very very very unfortunate um i remember when i was like super super super bulled up on Pepe I tweeted it out in April of 23 and I had
stated that like Pepe would outperform most protocol bags which it ended up doing like
short term when it started to rally hard and I think it I think it barely got um any engagement at all whatsoever and same thing with like tia later on that year
um but speaking of pepe i remember like when pepe first came out i would go on poly's um
zero x poly that was his handle i would go on his spaces on the Because of Bitcoin account as co-host.
And I remember like making spaces talking about like Pepe hits 30 mil, Pepe hits 40 mil.
And then like people would be like, I'll see market talk. And then Pepe, what is this? This is a scam or whatever. And it's like whenever you start seeing crypto native people just reject some trends that are clearly out in your face,
it just goes to show what kind of market participants are alive this cycle.
Same thing when TIA was trending later on that year right it's like oh what
the hell is modularity and then asked her right like oh who's gonna bid the team who version of
hyper liquid what's going on here and that's the beauty of this market right like sometimes it
takes a while for a consensus trade to be made right like with hyper liquid
consensus wasn't there until it hit like 30 bucks plus and started to put daily candles 30 bucks
plus and it's like you kind of miss the meat of the move right like this cycle has often rewarded
um faith basically like early faith uh putting a thesis out there, positioning
yourself for it. And that's what I have to say about that, man. I'm glad like this perp,
this whole perp decks thing still has some legs though. And it hasn't just been like something that lasts like two days
or something like that um but looking at xpl you had like a quick pump for like 30 minutes
huge like 50 drawdown and over the last over the last couple of hours it's pulled off like a 2X.
Since this morning, New York opened.
From New York opened up until now, so about like nine hours or so,
it's pulled off a double.
All those guys that got in pre-sale are up so much too.
I mean, it's not even.
How did they get in at Plasma? I don't know exactly how, but I know it's sold out in like five minutes.
Um, and they're just up like gorillions.
That's why you see all these big accounts like shilling it is because they all got in
presale.
Um, and so, I mean, that's like why I'm not interested in buying it right now.
I mean, personally, like 13 bill FDV on launch or not on launch, but, um, you know, day of
launch. Right. like 13 bill fdv on launch or not on launch but um you know day of launch right and you want to
talk about like fundamental belief especially headed into q4 you have to look at the fundamental
narratives in a different light than memes right everybody's like oh they're overheated right and
historically the cycle i mean sure like an overheated narrative or everybody on the timeline talking about it would deem, you know, probably high timeframe top, right? But if we do see that shift, and we talk about liquidity getting pushed out onto the risk curve, you know, and the fundamental repricing, I don't see why these things can't go a whole hell of a lot higher. And if you look at Kida, for instance, Kida was launched on March 5th, which was at like 80 something K BTC, right? And it ran up decently in the first
like few days, maybe it was like first week. And then you had to sit through the whole volatility
period of the like lows, the accumulation down at like 74K, down to 74K before you could then like realize
the real exponentials.
So like viewing the fundamentals here,
you gotta view them much differently
in the like light perspective.
People are behind the curve in regards to
like the market dynamic on how things are gonna be
behaving here moving forward.
Like people are so complacent in like theses
and like market dynamics and it's i don't know
that's just my thought donnie what's going on bro yeah dude xpl um i haven't seen a launch launch where something launches like at actual billions and is uh it is a massive runner
compared to something like an astro like they're both i looked at it right now like
they're both um at the same uh circulating market cap right now but i mean if people make money on it by all means man that would be fantastic um i think this
would actually be like the first launch of its kind where like it's already um in the billions
in cirque but either way donnie what's going on bro how are you i'm good bro i'm good um you guys
touched on a lot of things there. So I guess the most important
point you touched on was the whole thing around like retail. And I don't know, my view with that
is clearly you don't have retail in crypto now, but I think it's inevitable. But what are the
conditions for retail to actually come into any market? You have clear examples of that in BTC
itself, but also in recent markets like gold and equities.
They've been up only for a period of time, specifically gold's rally from like
2024 all the way to the 3,500 high. You saw tons of retail interest in gold. Why? Because it was
a sustained bullish uptrend. Same thing with equities now. Everyone's making a ton of money
because there's a sustained bullish uptrend. They like bid green they buy green it goes higher it's all easy it's all fun you've had that in
crypto as well 2023 seven months straight from 20k to 74k retail was definitely there tiktok was
buzzing with brett this kind of stuff every other meme that's why memes were going berserk the last
time you had that it was actually shorter than the 2023 rally, which was in 2024. And that had a little bit of retail interest as well. Not the
full scale retail interest like we're used to with every other macro expansion we've had in 2017,
2021. But it was there, right? Fartcoin was headlining everywhere. People were buying Trump
and Fartcoin itself. So you had a little hint of it. The only reason we haven't had that now is because you haven't had a sustained bullish uptrend in price discovery
where everything's going up and you can buy green and make money. You've had that in golden equities
though. So it's just a transition into that. You have to be more patient. And I think that move is
coming because the macro is laid out for it. And those charts, golden equities, they're solidifying
that we are on the correct side of the macro trade. We're just waiting for the reverse, sorry, the liquidity rotation into BTC and the crypto
sector once those get a little bit overheated.
So I think we're pretty close because gold is approaching a technical target around 4K.
And I think the SPX ends the year off potentially even higher than 7K just off of how much uh it's appreciated recently
i actually didn't think it would hit like what did it hit like almost 6700 already i think it
cools off for a little bit uh maybe in october but ends the year off pretty strong but as it starts
to approach these very high targets of like 7k maybe even higher maybe gold goes even higher
than 4k i would just expect you will see visually on the charts when you look at like BTC over gold, BTC over SPX,
and just the Bitcoin over those charts themselves.
Individually, you'll see that there is some sort of rotation going on
as people move further out on the risk curve.
And also the Russell should easily clear 3K in this wave, right?
I'm not labeling it to this year or Q1 next year,
just in this wave that we're
experiencing now and eventually that's going to lead to a sustained bullish uptrend in crypto
and that's where you're going to have massive retail interest come in because every day they
look at the charts it's going higher and higher and higher and that fomo builds up and builds up
and they tell a friend who tells a friend and they all come in we just haven't had that yet we've had
continuous stop starts especially in the you know old market. They go up a little bit, full round trip, go even lower,
another glimpse of hope. And then you just keep repeating that. So it's not fair to say that
retail isn't here and everything won't go up because I believe it will if you have those
conditions, which I think they will materialize because they're materializing in other assets
right now, like gold and equities. So it's just a matter of time, I believe. Right
now, yeah, it's very selective of what you need to be bidding. And you can find stuff on chain,
it's a little bit trickier. But that's why you're seeing things like these high caps,
pull liquidity out of other tokens. It's because the dynamics are horrible for the old coin market,
unless you have that sustained bullish uptrend.
But I don't know if I shared something into the nest.
I'll just share it again, just in case.
What I'm looking at locally here,
now that we've pulled back from the key level of like 111, 112,
is that we're basically on the verge of taking out all of those lows.
At 106, oh, sorry, at 107,
you got a massive liquidity build lows at 106. Oh, sorry, at 107. You got a massive liquidity buildup
at 106.7, which was there even when we bottomed at 107, but it got front run.
And we've actually had points like that on the chart being front run before at very key levels
on the chart as well. The main prior one was the 74k lows. There was tons of liquidity at 72k.
And you had a demand zone technically on the
chart at 73 700 i think and you front ran that so there is potential to still uh not sweep that 106.7
k just based off of the fact that you know these market makers who are forming these bottoms they're
they're kind of front running these obvious zones that everybody's looking at.
kind of front running these obvious zones that everybody's looking at like everyone can go on
Like everyone can go on Glassnode or whatever and look up Bitcoin liquidity.
What is it called? Heatmap or whatever.
You can see the clear zones there.
They're very bright and obvious.
So front running them does make a little bit of sense in that respect.
But it also wouldn't surprise me if you take out those lows in the process.
And it doesn't really mean anything.
We're basically at those lows now anyway.
It's not going to make a massive difference to whatever you're holding or anything like that.
I think it should be pretty quick, and you just clean it up and move on. But the first chart that
I shared in the nest is basically every single recent month. When we've had context to go higher,
I've labeled those on the on the chart, chart right i haven't put in the downtrend from
the january highs because we're just focusing on the upside here because gold is going up
equities are going up all that kind of stuff so we should be pricing in an uptrend soon
and of those recent times that we should be pricing in an uptrend you can see with every
start of each month we've transitioned with downside that's led to pretty strong upside
starting from the April lows, April 1, we nuked all the way till April 6, or 7, or whatever it was,
which is the first week of April, and then basically went up only all the way up until
May the 1. And then we pulled back in that first week as well, up only to a fresh all time high.
And then we pulled back, you know, going into June, and then had a big bounce
in June, massive pullback again, we rallied from that pullback, again, transitioning into July,
we have another two days, pulling back, rally super aggressively to 123 or whatever that was.
And every other point, you can see the same thing, dip going into the transition or in the first
week rally dip going into the transition, or in the first week rally dip going into the transition or in the first week we bottomed in september on the first of september
at 107 rallied to 108 or whatever it was and now we're dipping again into q4 uh october which again
we've been ranging at this high since 123k or whatever it was for a number of days now and i'll
share another chart after this. But we
could range for a little bit longer just following the gold range that was being priced in from 3,500
till now that that range lasts at 130 days. That would take us to about like mid-November for the
actual all-time high breakout. That doesn't mean we don't sit a bottom until then. We could sit one
much lower. We could break out even sooner than that.
But we are forming some sort of range now,
clearly at the zone.
But we're just waiting for that transition
from those other assets to overheat a little bit more.
And then I think the liquidity will flow into the space
and we'll have that sustained bullish uptrend.
And yeah, so that's kind of what I'm thinking
like locally for BTC.
You either take that low
or it's kind of going to front run it again
and not take it.
But I think we are going to establish another low here
and then work towards building an uptrend
towards the all-time high
to eventually break out just like gold did.
And I'll just quickly share that chart as well.
Gold over BTC, just so
you can see the visual I shared in the nest. Now, let's go to the first half of this chart where
BTC actually hit 74k and then formed that six month range. You can see that gold above it,
it was forming like a upwards consolidation, right? This thing is very algorithmically driven,
it trades a lot cleaner off liquidity and things like that. So it's not as prone to these consistent stabs of the lows
like BTC is because BTC is 10 times smaller, and much more manipulated in this respect.
You can see when gold actually hit that local peak in October the 31st. So right before the
elections, BTC was already creeping out of that low. And then once gold had topped there, you had a massive expansion on BTC.
I think you're going to get something similar now as you approach another technical level,
which is around 4K.
Gold ranged for 130 days.
Obviously, it rallied off the lows from the April lows and then formed this range.
And now it broke out again.
BTC has done something very similar.
It hasn't been as explosive in nature as prior, but we haven't had the BTC gold
chart being skewed in BTC's fair yet, i.e.
no rotations out of gold yet because gold still got legs.
So I think as it approaches this 4K, BTC will fulfill that 130 day range, which
it's been in since that 123k high. And we should be breaking
out following gold and hopefully, you know, benefit from a liquidity rotation out of gold
and equities into BTC here as well, because they're massively inflated now, which will set up for a
huge rally for BTC if we get it. So yeah, that's what I'm thinking here. I think it's really
inevitable, just have to kind of ride out this last bit of this range,
which again, it doesn't have to last until the mid-November target
that it's kind of indicating towards.
It could be a lot sooner.
We'll just have to see how we transition into October.
And again, I think the fun part of this next phase starts
when this next low is set,
because you should start building a trend towards you know the 124k high and not just continuously stab the lows over and over but
that could also be a scenario i just don't think it's it makes sense according to the liquidity
data like once you sweep 106.7 there's really nothing more under there to take so i think you'd
start building an uptrend and obviously gold is already at 3700 it's getting to that 4k so i'm leaning more towards we just set the low the
the quarterly low uh going into october and then that's it you could get that donnie you can get
that over the weekend honestly over the next 96 hours you know a, a sweep of 107, 106, and then watch price be 109, 9.30 a.m. come Monday morning.
I wouldn't doubt it at all.
Exactly.
And like when you downtrend, you build market structure,
obviously downtrending.
So the key reclaims are much lower than they were prior, right?
So let's say we go to 106.7 and sweep that.
Now we've probably got some market structure
at like 108.5, let's say.
But if you flip that after sweeping that low,
then you're like, ooh, okay.
That's potentially like our first signal
for a bottom formation
and you can uptrend from there.
And obviously the rest of the bags
that people might be holding,
they will start to uptrend off those lows as well.
So it's not...
The worst part is done because it happened quick, right?
If we had chopped and ranged around here for too long,
then it would have gotten even uglier on chain.
So it's better to just get out of the way like this.
Well, guys, I don't really have anything much more to say uh for today's shows anything else
that you guys want to mention i think uh today's stream was pretty dope man sure next week is a big
jobs week uh absolutely uh broad market mover catalyst bitcoin will certainly react off of it.
And I think to Donnie's point,
I think that's why you've seen local lows
at the beginning of several months in a row now,
only for that to be the next leg higher.
Because we've tried to, I don't know,
maybe they just need proof
that the labor market hasn't fallen to the floor each month.
But and then when they realize that, like, OK, technically, U.S. labor is still hanging in there, then they're willing to start bidding again.
So, well, you know, we play this game again next week.
Anything, you know, give me a positive number, triple digit, the better.
And, you know, the better.
Stay tuned.
We've also got FOMC at the end of October.
Could be some price building up towards that.
Did you guys see the new Wolverine video game? I saw your clip.
Is that live gameplay?
Are you going to be
Wolverine for Halloween?
Why not, bro? You could be the Beast.
You could be Hulk.
You could be Sabretooth.
Or Juggernaut.
Someone told me
I look like Landwolf from Boys Club.
That's messed up.
I do not look like Landwolf.
I do not look like Landwolf, bro.
But yo, man.
Yeah, the Wolverine game comes out next fall, like October.
Insomniac Games is making it.
They're the same people behind...
They didn't make Sly Cooper, did they?
You guys remember Sly Cooper?
Let me see.
Yeah, Insomniac Games.
That's Sucker Punch, excuse me.
Insomniac made Ratchet & Clank.
Yeah, but the Wolverine game comes out next year that's going
to be sick um that's pretty much all i've got today for markets guys um there's really not
much to discuss i think like there's there's a potential that we just might be in another
ranging environment for uh for majors there is some weekly demand for btc at like 105 106 um
for eth the weekly oh gosh man it actually looks it actually does not look good like if you don't
actually close the week above like 4100 then like you could see some trouble honestly to like 3300 or something like that 34
um but i do have some dubious speculation that like i do have some dubious speculation that
you could see btc just have a giga candle by like 15 20 percent uh that's just dubious speculation
it would be a way to like introduce October
given that October over the last few years
has been like extremely
bullish
but for right now I'm just focused
on like these handful of vaults
but Donnie Prometheus
anything else that you guys want to say before I wrap up
the show I think this is a great place
to wrap up honestly
it was a nice stream for over an hour.
A lot of stuff was discussed.
A lot of actionable things as well.
Anything else that you guys want to say or you guys are good to go?
All right, cool.
With that being said, guys, I want to thank each and every single one of you for tuning into today's show.
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Peace out.
God bless you all.
Have a good rest of your Thursday or Friday, depending on where you are in the world.
So bye, guys.
Take care. I'm making some noise on my life
Till the day that I hit 25
I know that they'll make an adult flee
I know that I'm not quite ready to flee
And I know I've got some drone
With life the other day And I said some things that these And now I'm gone so grown With life the other day
And I said something that I need that I should
But I opened up a letter
I told that I didn't pay
But I went through and even now it's the end
Inside the eyes
And they'll be so young
And that's why we're alive
And I'm stronger again
And I'm not so white I'm waiting for my brother to take me I was behind I told my friend, she told me it's not a problem for him I said that you're so good at this event
But now I've got some pride, I've realized the other day
When I said some things that I need that I should say
I picked them up a letter of pills, but I didn't like
They weren't you and evil, but now it's the end of my life
They look inside until the end of the time
I'm feeling like I'm sorry. I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry. I'm so sorry. When I strike a ticket I own my beer mouth tight I think the weapon will take me home
It's right
It's all about the beer Thank you.
