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Market Talk- IS THIS THE BOTTOM!? Time to BTFD!? BTC 130k incoming!?
Recorded: Aug. 15, 2025 Duration: 1:49:40Space Recording
Short Summary
Crypto enthusiasts are buzzing about the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting, which historically influences market trends, with expectations of rate cuts that could propel Bitcoin and Ethereum to new heights. The conversation highlights a bullish sentiment towards altcoins, with predictions of significant growth as liquidity flows into the market, driven by institutional investments and a favorable economic environment.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. you I'm going to go ahead and put it in the middle of the pan.
I'm going to go ahead and put it in the pan.
I'm going to go ahead and put it in the pan.
I'm going to go ahead and put it in the pan. So,
I'm going to go ahead and do a little bit.
I'm going to go ahead and do a little bit.
I'm going to go ahead and do a little bit. Good job. Here we go. I'm going to go to the next video. I got a little bit of a kick. Oh, my God. Ah I'm sorry. yeah yeah
yeah
yeah
yeah
yeah
yeah What is going on guys happy friday happy friday welcome back to market talk welcome to the weekly
wrap-up myself and donnie we usually do this every friday and uh towards the end guys you guys are
going to be able to come up ask your, give your thoughts on the market and all that good stuff.
But guys, we are reaching a pivotal, pivotal moment in this market cycle.
We have Jackson Hole next week.
Over the last few years, Jackson Hole has often dictated how the rest of the year is going to occur all the way back to 2022.
In 2022, Jerome Powell said that there will be pain,
and the equity markets ended up correcting by double digits.
Crypto absolutely plummeted going into the rest of Q3 and Q4.
rest of Q3 and Q4. 2023, that Jackson Hole meeting laid the tone for the Fed pausing
rate hikes. And the one after that, which occurred last year in August, set the tone
for rate cuts. And the Fed is still projected to cut rates. I think the Fed watch is still well above 90% for the Fed to cut rates next month.
You have other central banks cutting rates.
But, I mean, guys, it's a pretty clean week.
We ended the week on the indices near all-time highs.
Highs. Hood closed the week at all-time highs.
Hood closed the week at all-time highs.
ARK Invest just put in one of the highest weekly closes that it has in a very, very, very long time.
IWM kind of pulling back a bit.
S&P trailing towards all-time highs at range highs right now.
But all signs are pointing towards Jackson Hole being a very, very pivotal meeting.
And it's actually good that we're just kind of chilling at range highs for the equity markets before Jackson Hole and not roaring into price discovery going into Jackson Hole.
You really don't want that.
You want the market where it's ready to go into outer space.
The longer the base, the higher into space and if we
consolidate near range highs then I think that's honestly bullish maybe a
little bit more of a pullback going into the event and really the pullback that
we're seeing on ETH is something is something to take note of the timeline
is in shambles for some reason when you have ETH have its first
actual pullback that it has in a very, very long time. I think the last time that ETH has had a
pullback was that move that we had from 2,600 all the way down to about 2,100 back in June.
all the way down to about 2100 back uh back in june so the eth can still look tremendously well
even if there is more of a deeper pullback to 4100 4200 something like that but uh eth is
consolidating near the may 2021 high which is quite bullish and we don't really have to go to those levels of 4,200, 4,100, especially if everyone is looking at them.
But it's still ETH season, guys.
You really just want to see ETH continue to lead the market and then have that trickle-down effect after ETH dominance kind of relaxes for a bit. bit and as far as bitcoin is concerned there's there's always these weird fractals that pop up
anytime we make a we make a slight a slight higher high and people want to point towards uh the 2021
style top where it was somewhat of a uh double top if you guys remember back in may we made a slight higher high uh i think we went to about
113 ish and the all-time high before that was right at about 110 111k back during the inauguration day
and we didn't really end up doing much outside of uh just consolidating and a little 10 pullback
outside of just consolidating and a little 10% pullback and I mean history
doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes maybe we have a stab on Bitcoin to
like 113 112 but it doesn't really have to do that we don't have to do that
especially especially when everyone's kind of seeing the same thing it's it's
it's it's quite ironic.
But guys, we're going to go ahead and officially get started.
We're going to go ahead and cook for you guys.
But before we do that, I ask one small, tiny, tiny favor of you all.
You guys can go ahead and show some love to the space.
You might be asking, Wabi, how can I show some love to the space?
How can I give a token of gratitude to yourself and Donnie
before you guys absolutely cook and show you guys the playbook that is unfolding,
that is about to be an incremental step-by-step playbook that is going to be insane well i've got some answers
for you guys i've got answers to questions that you may not even know how to ask so here's the
deal right the first thing you want to do is you click the spaces tab and then right above uh our
profile pictures you'll see a nice little link that says x.com slash I slash spaces.
Go ahead, smash up that like button, hit up that repost, that retweet button.
As it does a number of things, helps out with the algorithm, helps bring more people into the space, brings more awareness of the brands and all that good stuff like pleasing our tech overlords.
of the brands and all that good stuff like pleasing our tech overlords so without further
ado prepare yourselves guys strap in and be ready we're about to absolutely cook over the next 45
minutes to an hour and of course during the last uh few minutes of the space as we usually do here
on fridays you guys can go on uh and hit that request button to the bottom left and we'll
bring you right on up but donnie what's going on man one hell of a setup what one hell of a setup
that we've got here it uh truly seems like the playbook is talk down the market before these
macro events and then absolutely turbo rip the market coming out of them.
We've seen this during the last few FOMCs.
We've seen this during CPIs and step by step, brother.
The cycle is unfolding.
We just came out of Bitcoin dominant season.
Now we're going, I think, into the second half of ETH dominant season,
which is honestly playing out a little bit quicker than BTC dominant season.
We're seeing altcoins on chain that really, really, really want to absolutely rip.
And, man, it's going to be a cook session.
Great to have you up.
I'm ready for the buckshot. I got my rifle.
I got my green arrow bullets ready to rock and roll man what's up
brother what's up bro let's go man oh man you get a nice nice pullback on btc and everyone just
changes their entire high time frame view on like everything that's you know been confirming the
cycle but honestly i just keep sharing the same charts and the same data because this stuff doesn't change overnight.
It takes many months and a lot of certain factors to align
for things to change on a high time frame view,
especially on the macro side of things.
And yeah, it's just the technical pullback on BTC.
Of course, you've got that paired with the PPI print that we had
yesterday. I think we actually discussed. No, we didn't discuss that. I actually made that
video for my Discord. My bad. But yeah, it was basically something to fade. It's kind of just
Jerome had already spoke about the implications of the tariffs and how that can cause short-term inflation as all these companies stockpile basically to mitigate the tariff impact on their businesses.
So he's definitely aware of the fact that inflation is sticky because of that for now,
and it is going to take time to transition out. He's actually said this. So that's why I think
that the market is still pricing in cuts for September, because he should look past this
as the economic data that we got in August, August 1st, and the bad ISM report, that should
outweigh the kind of predictable inflation reports that are coming from
this stuff. Plus, a lot of that is quite volatile. So yeah, I just think, you know, let's see, but
Jerome should look past that and definitely focus more on the clearly slowing economy by their own
data. And they should, you know, start to ease monetary policy. So we still get the technical pullback
and sentiment goes sour, but nothing has really changed on the high timeframe view.
Even on the Bitcoin chart, I've been overlaying it with gold just because
it's kind of like a better or a more understandable measure of global liquidity
a better or a more understandable measure of global liquidity increasing. Because if you think
M2 is BS or whatever, well, gold is a nice arbiter of currency debasement, a good soaking up of that.
So it's definitely telegraphing that we are going higher. And actually, we've got DXY and gold in a
pretty pivotal spot at the moment as well and they're kind of being inversely
correlated dxy and gold so if we think dxy goes lower uh i think i've shared on this uh on the
nest sorry three charts if you guys just go to the dxy one just quickly i've overlaid 2017 it's
a very similar setup a rally into the inauguration and then a macro top for DXY after the inauguration.
They wanted a weaker dollar in the last cycle as well.
I won't go over all the context around that, but it's looking very similar on a fractal
perspective.
And even if you screw this fractal completely, we know that there's downwards pressure on
the dollar because rates are likely to come down, whether they come down in September,
October or whatever, they are likely to come down, whether they come down in September, October or whatever, they are likely to come down. And the US Treasury is issuing net 1.1 trillion of new debt this year.
That's lots of headwinds for the dollar, right? So more downwards pressure on the dollar,
and more upwards pressure on global liquidity, which means more upwards pressure on risk markets.
So we're basically just waiting to fulfill the wave that gold has already put in
since BTC lags gold and global liquidity by a few months. And it's even telegraphing sort of
these micro movements that we've had. The bottoming phase, the rally to a new high, the pullback.
Obviously, we have deviations to this whole chart. It's not going to be perfect. It's directionally
correct, though. And we had the World War III shakeout.
These little things, they can make a big impact on BTC rather than gold
because gold is 10 times bigger in market cap.
So even this pullback where I've circled in green on that chart,
it's kind of being telegraphed on the gold pullback as well.
They had a similar sort of sentiment extreme.
I thought it would be the economic data that we had. It doesn't really matter what it is. It could be this PPI print.
It's just a technical pullback kind of being telegraphed on the chart before you really
start to go higher on this fractal. And I believe we have the textbook set up to go higher because
of all the things we just discussed. And I think if Jerome does set up sort of a very obvious rate cut
at this Jackson Hole meeting, then you're just going to rip instantly.
You've also got around the FOMC, well at the FOMC,
on the 16th, prior to the actual public talk
that they do, they're going to do their rate cut projections, right?
Which is at the end of every quarter.
If they show more cuts somewhere upwards of two or three, I think if you get three, you're definitely
going to rip super hard and low cap stocks and likely crypto as well. But anything on the positive
side of that, I think markets are going to do well. And the dollar goes lower, and the next batch of global liquidity
basically gets ready from the dollar going lower.
So that kind of indicates two waves to me.
And obviously, we'll wait for these confirmations.
We'll wait to see how DXY and gold react to all of this.
And yeah, that's kind of the setup at play.
And then kind of the worst case scenario that I've got
is let's say the dollar bottoms where it is right now. That's kind of the setup at play. And then kind of the worst case scenario that I've got is,
let's say the dollar bottom is where it is right now.
It's spent a lot of time below 100, so we're yet to price that in for BTC.
It's been priced in on gold.
Gold's been chopping around for four months now.
Let's say the dollar actually rounds out of bottom here and starts to rip.
We're still yet to have the divergence from gold to BTC. As you can see
on one of the charts I shared there, which is just BTC over gold. I've been using this kind of as an
indicator of how hot are we getting in terms of the cyclical top, because the cyclical top is
actually the liquidity cycle top. And if gold is a measure of loosening of financial conditions and the global liquidity
index as well, then I'm looking more at BTC against gold as a cyclical top. Because as you
know, if the dollar is going down, it can skew the BTC USD chart by a significant amount. Obviously,
if you're looking at other pairs like BTC Euro, BTC the British pound, it looks like it hasn't broken out yet. And it hasn't, right? The dollars
had massive downwards pressure since the inauguration. And obviously, gold has been soaking
up all of that liquidity up until now. But typically, when a true liquidity cycle occurs,
you have rotations out of large cap assets like gold further out on the risk curve
like btc and the rest of the market low cap stocks things like that so at worst i think the dollar
would bottom and you'd actually get gold topping at 3500 which was the high it would start going
down and i think you'd get rotations kind of for a bluff top on bitcoin uh before a cyclical top
right so even the worst case scenario for me
is really not that bad. It would just mean we get one wave and top this year, which is not my base
case. I think we go well into 2026 because I'm expecting that downside on the dollar based on
the things we discussed. And therefore, I think gold actually puts in another high. And it's
looking really accumulative at this current setup that it's been ranging for like four months, not taking the highs.
And again, we have that context of downside on the dollar.
So, yeah, we'll see how it all plays out.
But I think today's or today and yesterday's price action is just complete noise.
Things don't change overnight like that.
And yeah, we'll soon find our answer, I think by the end of this month
or at the latest AFOMC 16th and 17th.
But yeah, it looks pretty good.
In terms of this pullback for BTC,
you've got support around 115.8.
I don't think you would lose that.
But if you do, you're going straight for 111, 110K.
But yeah, that would kind of be the telegraph pullback
that the gold fractal is showing us.
I don't think you get that personally.
I think this is just like a three to four day thing
and you reverse probably Sunday, Monday as usual
before you start going higher
purely because I'm looking at like stocks, equities, Russell.
They've barely even dipped over this sort of catalyst-driven,
let's call it, pullback.
So I'm not expecting anything too crazy, to be honest.
And Russell actually poked its head above the key level
that I had for upside, which, again,
I think once you get these incremental confirmations from the Fed fed side this thing's just going to start melting up like crazy
so it's got to be a bit more patient um also that range that gold is telegraphing for btc you can
see it's kind of like very impulsive to the upside pointing around like 140 to 150 and then forming
a direct range after that you don't typically follow gold uh you know one for
one sort of on the chart you could put in a high let's say a high around 140 and then you can see
that second high that gold is telegraphing on the overlay you could put in a much higher high towards
160 170 and then start ranging for example you can deviate a lot from the gold overlay. It's literally only a directional indicator.
And you can kind of measure how high you're going to go based off of these overlays with gold.
But yeah, we're more synced up to gold than ever before.
I think it's a really good tool to use.
And it honestly cuts most of the noise.
If we know that these risk markets are 90% correlated to global liquidity increasing and gold is a great arbiter of that, this cuts out
90% of the noise. You just follow this and if you can kind of forecast where the dollar can go
based on the macro events, then you can forecast where the markets are going to go.
I think it's looking good.
Donnie, how does the common man prepare for what could be a secular bear for the dollar?
The dollar was in an insane uptrend for years and years and years.
And now we're starting to see some breaks
and i said this during yesterday's space with the team tommy also said it as well and you said it in
a previous space but the true doomer scenario is risk assets going up so much that it prices out the average consumer. We saw that during the COVID cycle with Bitcoin.
And now potentially we're going to see the same thing happen with ETH.
And probably either Solana or Hype.
Like we're now going into that period where like the market is now maturing at such a
rapid rate where it's now actively trying
to find that third asset um i think it's solana but maybe it's hyper liquid first i i really don't
know but like dude how how does one prepare for rapid dollar depreciation um how how how would
you go about it man like how would you tell the average consumer, like, everything that's about to unfold here,
man?
Again, we haven't seen this in a very, very long time.
And if the Fed is going to shift towards neutral and then shift towards dovishness in a quick
period amount of time, given that, and I want to lay in the groundwork here, right?
Because, you know, I don't really like just throwing blank statements or blank questions out like this.
So I kind of want to lay a fountain to cook here.
And we've got a new Fed chair that's about to come in in a couple of quarters and a couple of quarters comes quickly, right? And we all know that the next Fed chair that's going to be appointed by
Trump is going to make 1999 look like a warmup. And for those that don't know what I'm speaking
about, if you guys just pull up the NASDAQ composite, not the Qs, I'm talking about the
NASDAQ composite, the OG tech index for all of the equity markets that went live between,
I think it was 1973, when the Nasdaq composite went live.
And when it pulled back in 1998, I believe from late 98 all the way to March of 2000,
from late 98 all the way to march of 2000 digit gain and the fed was slashing rates um like how
oprah gives free gifts on her talk shows you get a rate cut you get a rate cut you get a rate cut
and there's a saying that we've been saying here on the show for the last number of years which is
history doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes and Donnie, one of the first few things that you had told me when Scott Bessent put out that bottom, when he said that the VIX was topped.
Again, guys, we have a Fed chair that speaks about the market directly and tells you when the bottom is in and when the top is in.
He told you the top was in in February where he said,
all right, relax for a few months.
The market is sick.
Trump told you that the market is about to go into surgery.
It's a sick patient.
And just hold on tight because in six months,
you'll start to see the Trump economy.
And here we are, bro.
Here we are, bro. Here we are.
Yeah.
Back to the original question,
kind of of how do you hedge against a dollar bear market?
Well, you're basically forced
to own assets.
And that's kind of why
the setup is so good.
And obviously, you know,
you have to play it
week by week, month by
month and kind of see it all unfold.
But the dollar is getting to a critical point.
If there is the second leg lower,
which I think it's pretty likely
now, I would lean more likely than not,
that it's hitting towards 90 or
potentially even below it, that would
confirm a 17-year breakdown
from a channel that you've had since 2008.
Which, basically, that's kind of upwards pressure on all decent assets, especially ones that really hedge
against debasement like BTC and gold, but more so there's a push for the digital version
of it for BTC.
You've got BlackRock and the US government marketing it to the world.
You're basically forced to own these assets, And it's kind of like a perpetual forward loop with
the dollar going down like that. We know no one wants to own debt. If you look at the US 10-year
on a 40-year time horizon, you can see you've had this perpetual downtrend. As more debt has been
piled on, you've had to have cheaper interest rates to be able to
basically fund the refinancing of that debt. And the bottom of that was actually during COVID,
rates pretty much at zero. And now we've blown out above and we've shifted that trend
to something that looks like an uptrend now. We'll see if we put in a higher low and then a higher
high over the next five to 10 years.
But nobody wants to own debt in a highly inflationary environment,
which means someone has to step up to keep these yields lower
so that massive debt burden of $37 trillion can actually be financed,
which means that either the US Treasury side or the Fed
needs to step up and find ways to purchase this debt, which is
highly inflationary, which puts downwards pressure on the dollar, upwards pressure on risk markets.
And you're seeing this setup really around the world, which is kind of scary if you're holding
fiat and not holding anything to hedge against it. So it's a very, very big high timeframe, you know,
kind of playbook going on there. I'm not going to cover it in this space. I think I've covered
it like 10 times. It's very long. But yeah, we're at the pivotal point now for all of that to start
unfolding. And I think you're going to see it this cycle. It's going to be very obvious when prices
escape higher, what's really going on
like they've walked BTC to 120k with basically no retail involvement whatsoever and people getting
shaken out on every single dip, just handing over their supply into someone else's hands.
And I think this is the part where they run a turbo and basically price out anyone who isn't
in this asset class, obviously timely enough after they
issue the ETF after the COVID crisis, when no one can even afford anything.
They can't afford groceries, can't really afford living expenses. They put forth a Bitcoin ETF.
And since then, they've just been accumulating. Yeah, think that's that's the whole play that's being uh run
right now and it'll be validated by price you know escaping to two three four hundred k a million
over the next five ten years and you've got none of it man what an absolute cook session man what an absolute way to start off the space i got koosh up here got max up here
ragsy up here now here's the deal right max usually likes to end his day on fridays a bit earlier so
max if you want to if you want to go ahead and give some of your thoughts on the conversation
you're free to do so man but um man i i did not expect you to show up. But I've got some
questions loaded up for you, brother. But before that, if you have any opening statements, feel
free to do so. Welcome, welcome, man. Well, first, I want to do a mic check. Can you hear me? Because
I'm driving through one of the worst storms I've ever driven through right now. So can you hear me okay, or is the rain just fumbling me too bad?
I can hear you.
It's a bit faint, but it is doable, man.
It's doable.
All right, well, you just have to promise me that if it's unbearable to listen to,
you'll just cut me off and someone else can go because i'm in stop and go traffic
and i'm on the worst highway in minnesota and it's lightning and thunder and i'm not even sure
i'm gonna make it out of this thing man it's a horrible horrible storm but um i'll definitely
cook i enjoyed listening to what you and you and donnie had to say um i'm certainly of the opinion
as well that the dollar is headed
lower. I don't spend a ton of my time focusing on it, but it's been sliding pretty hard over the
past couple of quarters. And I do think we are on the brink of a major, major breakdown.
I think like most things, it's when we're talking about like a cycle, right?
Like most things, it's when we're talking about like a cycle, right?
The dollar's journey down to sub 90 could take another, you know, three, four years even.
I'm not sure, but I don't think there's any question that we're entering like a cyclical
bear market for the dollar and people are going to be forced to buy risk.
And I think Donnie brought up another really solid point, which is that we are potentially
entering a regime where you will be either forced to buy risk assets or you're basically
just going to be cornered into poverty.
And it's actually kind of a sad reality because there's going to be, you know, that again, that top one to five percent of, I guess, net worth out there that really is going to benefit from from this wave.
And there's a lot of people that already are priced out of assets that genuine like they can't even the thought.
And I know it seems weird for a lot of us up here, but like the thought of even like owning one whole Ethereum at this point is insane.
Like I know a lot of a lot of guys from from college that actually about crypto and they'll think, yeah, I don't like one E.
Is that good? And I'm like, yeah, that's that's great, man.
And, you know, it's going to go up. But there are, there are, we're already seeing that, that we've been
seeing that for years, man. People just being so materially priced out of assets and people
struggling to even have money to contribute out of their paychecks into risk assets. So
a lot of people are kind of stuck in that, you know, that flywheel where, um, they're already
priced out. It's only going to get worse, right?
It's only going to get worse, which only, you know,
strengthens the case further for small cap companies, you know,
holding the indexes.
I mean,
I hope that a lot of the working class has been contributing to their 401ks
and it's well diversified and, you know, large cap and small caps.
And maybe they move further down the risk curve into some of the stuff that we hold primarily. But yeah, I mean, I'm super optimistic, right?
And I definitely also agree with the notion that the price action over the past week doesn't really
matter. The truth is nothing has happened at all. I mean, valuation is the most subjective aspect to what we do here.
And, I mean, it's really not more complicated than just, like, there's a macro, quote-unquote, catalyst.
We had a hot PPI print.
The market got scammed up to range highs before, and they used it as an opportunity to flush it back down.
But it's really not more complicated than that.
It doesn't change anything. I totally agree with what donnie was saying there um this stuff takes some time to
really like work its way through the plumbing of our economy and you know one hot print that was
i mean more or less foreseen i know it wasn't like the official patient but um well hopefully
you can hear me it says it looks like it's reconnecting here.
Um, give me a thumbs up. You can hear me. Okay. It said it was trying to reconnect. Sorry guys.
It looks like the rain is pulling back a little bit, which is good. But yeah, I mean, look,
my, my thoughts on Bitcoin are maybe a little bit more contrasting to what I just heard Donnie say.
a little bit more contrasting to what I just heard Donnie say.
Let me start with this.
I'm more than happy to be wrong,
but I do think that Bitcoin is in like innings seven of its bull market.
And that doesn't mean that I think the top is in, certainly not.
But I think if you just look at it from a cyclical perspective and recognize,
okay, like seasonality has been more or less a fade or a giga fade for
the past nine months. Q1 delayed us a few months. So push it back a quarter. If we were to kind of
map out this cycle and fractal it out, comparing the previous two, you know, 2015, 16, 17 cycle,
and then 2019 through 2021, you know,, would more or less forecast a Bitcoin top in
November, December. I think we can push this thing out into 2026 for sure. But I really am
seeing Bitcoin here as not a solid bet compared to altcoins. I think that Bitcoin, let's just, let me rewind a little bit. If you were to overlay,
you know, ETH BTC or ETH dominance or others dominance with Bitcoin, and you mark out when
that bottom happened on altcoin dominance charts, whether you want to consider it ETH BTC, ETH
dominance, others dominance, total three divided by Bitcoin.
However you measure altcoin strength, if you were to mark that out on your chart and just circle it
on the date when that date happened and we had a high timeframe bottom on altcoins relative to
Bitcoin and marked it out on the Bitcoin chart. Bitcoin, yes, has gone up, certainly in like the 2015,
16, 17 cycle, but it was in the latter half of its cycle. So I don't, I don't, sorry, my map is
talking to me. I don't know if you guys could hear that, but for me, it's like, I think Bitcoin's
going to continue to kind of grind higher and do these ranges that expand.
And then, you know, everybody calls for the top every other week when we get a leverage rinse.
And I just can't make a solid case for Bitcoin outperformance here unless somehow ETH BTC is going to majorly reverse, which I do not think is going to happen here.
I think that that bottom is 98, 99% in.
So I think people are really focused on what Bitcoin just did this past week,
and they're conflating a low-time frame bias of Bitcoin influence on this market
with a high-time frame cyclical bias, which I think is kind of a fallacy.
And I think people need to recognize the shift and the regime change
and who's in the driver's seat now and recognize that Bitcoin is not going to be driving this
market anymore. All we need is for Bitcoin to not have some crazy 35% flush. And every time
Bitcoin holds and just kind of grinds higher, whether it goes to 150K or 250K, they're going to use it to
just pump ETH and certainly pump ETH BTC and then certainly move further down the risk curve and
pump our altcoins. I mean, we just got another announcement of another Dogecoin ETF. Like I'm
telling you, like when that Dogecoin ETF hits, things are going to get absolutely out of control.
I mean, I think that the biggest crime that was committed this cycle because of how long it's taken and how grueling it's been for altcoins
specifically is them somehow convincing the masses that alt season won't happen because it hasn't
happened yet. Okay. We are on the brink of the largest alt season that we've ever had. I actually
think there's a somewhat decent chance that others dominance gets above last cycle's high.
And I do think that ETH BTC is probably going to exceed 0.09 or 0.088, whatever the top was last cycle, something like that I'm driving.
So I really think it's time to move down the risk curve, right?
I think they're going to have a tough time sending Bitcoin to 250 or 300K.
Doesn't really matter.
As long as we don't see some high time frame structural breakdown
for Bitcoin, which I am not expecting, you need to be focusing on ETH here. ETH here, ETH derivatives.
I think Sol will do well, but I'm a little spooked by the Sol ETH chart, right? I think that probably
BNB and some other large L1s are going to have their time to shine as well. Certainly, if we get
some random surprise announcement that Binance is allowed in the., which, by the way, tinfoil hat, I do think that that's coming at some point.
And I think you're going to see a full blown alt season, you know, for the remainder of this quarter into Q4.
We'll certainly have some pullbacks and whatever. It doesn't really matter.
But ETH hasn't even made a new all time high yet.
And similarly to what I was just telling you guys to do, where like if you mark out and circle on your charts when others dominance or your altcoin dominance charts, circle on the Bitcoin chart that date.
Also go and circle the date that ETH has gone through its multi-year accumulation through a bear market into the first half of a bull market and mark out on your Bitcoin chart or your altcoin charts.
market and mark out on your Bitcoin chart or your altcoin charts when ETH has gone on to make a new
high after a multi-year bear market and reaccumulation. Look at what happens to altcoins.
So ETH is where your focus should be. And I remember very distinctly last cycle,
it was almost like Bitcoin didn't do shit for months. Chopping, ranging up, down, you know,
just not great Bitcoin conditions, more or less,
you know, high timeframe distributive. And whenever we like, it didn't matter because
ETH would just pump when ETH would pump. It didn't matter if Bitcoin was flat or even red on the day.
You just see, you just see alts go crazy. And that is going to be happening when Tom Lee and the
boys scam ETH above all time highs, we're going to see a breakout of a four-year range for ETH.
And it's not that large of a market.
I mean, think about what the valuations of some of these mega-cap tech companies are.
I mean, like, I mean, look, let's be real about it.
Like, NVIDIA went up like 10x in the past few years or something like that.
went up like 10 X in the past few years or something like that. You know, it's like,
do you realize how little capital it's going to take for ETH to pump to 10 K? Like it's a
nothing burger asset. Like it's tiny, it's tiny. So my thoughts on Bitcoin are more neutral. Like
I think we've got plenty of runway and I think you should more or less ignore the scammy price
action that we've seen on an, you know, on an intraweek basis. I don't think it holds any weight whatsoever.
And I think you just, you just wait for that Ethereum break of the all time high. And you
are going to see some pretty wild conditions in front of you. And I know that it's difficult and
grueling holding a lot of these beta plays, like holding these, you know, these ETH beta plays.
I get it. Okay. I get it. But like, that's what it
does is like it chops, it ranges, they convince you it's never going to pump. And then it goes
nuts. So I'm pretty bullish. Like I'm bearish DXY. I'm bullish to neutral on Bitcoin. I just
don't think it matters that much. As long as Bitcoin doesn't flush too deep, then it doesn't
really matter. And when ETH breaks that all time high, guys, like it is going to get insane out there. It's going to get
insane. Like people all the time will ask me like, Max, has your target for like meme coins changed?
Like name your meme coin. Like, no, no, it hasn't at all. You know, well, why isn't it? Why aren't
they moving yet? Look at what ETH did. And I'm like, people have a tough time wrapping their minds around this idea of the higher ETH goes in the
meantime, the more runway it paves for your meme coin to go crazy. So I think we're entering a
perfect, perfect environment for risk to rally. And of course, that will benefit Bitcoin. But again,
Bitcoin rallied from 15K to 124K. And we know that when ETH BTC
puts in a definitive bottom, which I believe it has 98, 99% sure that that ETH bottom is in,
damn near 100. It looks unbelievable. The show belongs to Ethereum. Your opinions of the asset
aside doesn't matter. We're going to chart this thing. We're going to analyze this thing like traders. It's not Bitcoin. ETH is more of a tech company than anything.
And when Bitcoin's in price discovery and ETH BTC puts in a weekly shift of market structure
from its low, confirming the trend is shifted, which I believe it certainly has without a shadow
of a doubt, ETH is in the driver's seat. So I think things look really good.
You know, I do.
But I'll kind of end my monologue there and we can have more of a discussion.
That was an insane cook.
And, you know, I agree with ETH BTC at the very least retesting last cycle's high at 0.08.
But here's the thing, Max.
We've had ETH BTC mark up to point, I think it's at 0.04 right now.
And this is without quantitative tightening stopping.
This is with Fed funds rate well above where CPI is.
fed funds rate well above where CPI is.
And ETH does its best whenever monetary conditions are at the very least neutral.
So my thought is, why wouldn't ETH BTC go ahead and test even the previous, previous
cycles all-time high at 0.1?
And it sounds crazy, but I've got that pinned tweet on my
profile for a reason i put it up at 0.023 i'll go ahead and put it up on the nest and i think to
myself max what's the one thing that we've been talking about here on bb for years iwm going into price discovery baby that is the now wabi
let me ask you let me ask you something okay so if you were to if you were to make an eth btc
market cap chart not just spot eth versus spot Bitcoin. Can you ask?
I'm driving.
What was the all-time high on the ETH BTC chart?
Was it 0.023, you said?
That seems high.
What was it?
The all-time high for ETH Bitcoin was in June of 2017 at 0.11.
That's the all-time high. So let me just tell you.
Answer me yes or no.
Are you expecting a new all-time high for ETH BTC?
Segway me into my next question.
You are.
I am, yeah.
If ETH BTC, now this is crazy, okay?
This will sound crazy.
I know there's some Bitcoin maxis out there.
I love Bitcoin.
Bobby, I'm asking you this. If ETHBTC makes a new all-time high, you understand the implications
of saying that? Because not too far, I don't know the exact valuation without looking at the chart,
a move above that all-time high would pressure a flippening. I don't even want to say it,
okay? I don't want anybody triggered, triggered okay i'm picturing like that liberal
who got mad that trump won the election like screaming like that meme i i'm not trying to
trigger anybody but if you think that that's going to happen and we make a new all-time high on that
chart you understand what that implies right yeah i i don't think it's gonna happen uh but i i do think that would coincide with like
probably conditions of late 2017 early 2018 where it's like super super super mania where you see
it on magazines you see it on talk shows and all that stuff that that that's where uh that that's That's what I'm expecting. And I think that happens when BTC is probably more so towards the top of the cycle, probably near $200K or something like that.
Let's just do some back of the napkin math I'm driving.
So $200K Bitcoin sounds like a soft, non-locking-you-in type of cycle target.
I think it's fair.
200k.
If we reach a valuation of 0.12, which would be a new high, that would be a 22k ETH.
Is that what you're thinking?
Assuming they time out like that. If we saw NVIDIA reach these valuations and
we have Scott Bessette telling everyone that he believes that the stablecoin market cap can go
upwards to $2 to $3 trillion, then you have to be insanely optimistic and bullish on the underlying asset.
And myself, I am more of a Solana guy, but I'd rather keep my stables in ETH.
I'd rather do DeFi stuff, borrowing and lending on ETH than on Sol.
So how do you price decentralized banking?
So how do you price decentralized banking?
And I think the stablecoin narrative is really intriguing because, one, you're right that if some of these talking heads, political or just like high net worth individuals, fund managers,
fund managers, are estimating and forecasting a stablecoin market cap valuation of, what,
two, three, four, five trillion over the next half decade.
What people don't even realize about ETH specifically is that if you want the network to be secure,
and these banks or institutions are really pushing stablecoins,
These banks or institutions are really pushing stable coins.
These large institutions have to secure the network by becoming forced buyers of Ethereum.
And I think that might be the thing that really pushes ETH to the next level,
is becoming that almost digital or de facto bank through things like Aave or Other.
bank through things like Aave or Other. So I think that that's a really interesting idea that we're
going to have to continue to track is like, when do these players become forced buyers of ETH if
they want that stablecoin market cap to be $5 trillion? Because ETH right now, ETH's market cap is not supportive of a stablecoin market cap of three, four,
five trillion right now.
But it could be, right?
It certainly could be.
Yeah, just as how NVIDIA was a supplier of chips, that is going to be ETH with stablecoin
guardrails and things like that.
And, you know, the biggest case of crypto right now, um, is basically the exposure to
the U S dollar and that's stable coins that that is stable coins.
That is like the ultimate product market fit.
And if we think about, all right right let's take a step back if fed funds rate are about to go a lot
lower if we're about to go into a neutral into a dovish state then that incentivizes yields on
chain to be that much better so yeah i put you put two and two together and it's like there's an
arbitrage trade to be made with eth against against NVIDIA, in my opinion.
I think that's highly doable during the Trump administration.
I want to ask, Donnie, what's your target for ETH, brother?
I want to know where you see ETH go in this cycle.
Because I know that $10K is like $100K for Bitcoin.
It's like the target everyone wanted last cycle but it didn't
quite happen but do you think that 10k is like short-sighted that's really only a 2x over the
previous cycle all-time high yeah i think that's pretty low um but my my view is a little bit
different on like how the cycle plays out i think if you do get the two wave cycle how i'm saying you get one
altcoin wave it pulls back into bitcoin bitcoin puts in a much higher high after gold tops and
the btc gold chart goes into price discovery which it will it should that's the true cyclical top i
think you're going to see a much more inflated bitcoin before you get the big rotation into
eth and altcoins so we'll have to see it's obviously a big price range um and
then we'll have to see what happens with eth btc but i think it could surprise people to the upside
my target has always been 15 to 22k for eth btc but there's been a lot of things that have developed
uh for even more upwards pressure on btc so i just don't know it's going to be it's going to
be tricky but for now it's just kind of blank 15 to 22k uh i think you could even see much higher than that and where do you think bitcoin's
gonna top out at you said some big numbers earlier you have one kind of back of mind of course i
won't hold you to it but like where do you think bitcoin tops i think for this year 138 to 182 if
we get the second wave and gold and the next leg down in the
dollar, then I think you could see much higher targets. That would verify a very big macro
shift to me where all of the stuff I discussed a little bit earlier. Yeah, I think even,
okay, let's say 138 to 182 this year and then next year, by the end of the year, you could see anywhere from 250 to 400.
But the thing from that is,
even if you do get a 60 to 70% correction,
you're still going to be above 140,
which is the whole pricing out of basically everybody narrative
that I'm kind of leaning into with this whole setup.
So you're really leaning towards a really extended cycle,
it sounds like. Yeah. And again, we have to see if we get the downside on the dollar,
which I think is pretty much imminent because of the rate cuts and they've raised the debt ceiling.
They're going to continue adding onto their 37 trillion. I think anywhere between the end of 26,
you could even go into some of 2027
before you have a true big, sharp correction.
But we'll see.
It depends how high you go as well
because that can also unlock a ton of supply
to sell, obviously, and have these big corrections.
Yeah, very interesting.
And one thing, too, about the eth btc kind of like back
of napkin math that i was doing with wavi earlier is if you look at the previous cycles
eth btc is blown off after bitcoin is basically bouncing into a shoulder so it's like it won't
it won't stencil out perfectly you know like bitcoin could go to let's just say 200k or something just a round
number right drop to 160 bounce up to 180 into a lower high and that's like the shoulder and then
we would see eth blow off and ethbtc put in its high when bitcoin is at 180 rather than 200 so
it'll be really interesting to see you know it's interesting because if you just run ethbtc over bitcoin underneath you actually see every time ethbtc starts to really rally uh bitcoin goes into its
blow-off top phase and it puts in significant uh percentages to the upside it's because
the liquidity pulls back and forth from eth to bitcoin so you're gonna have i think periods of
push pull between those two assets this whole cycle It's not going to be linear to one side to basically wrap up the cycle.
I think there's just too much tailwinds for BTC for them to basically be done with that asset
class to rotate it all the way out in the risk curve. Plus, you've got a lot of bigger players
that still are yet to enter the scene.
They're going to choose the biggest asset first.
You don't think they're going to go, oh, Bitcoin's already pumped.
Let's buy ETH.
Tom Lee's about it on CNBC every day.
Like, why do you think gold just continuously goes up over time?
They just use it as a hedge against the currency debasement that's going on.
So it doesn't matter what the price of Bitcoin is. If all of those other metrics are still pointing the currency debasement that's going on so it doesn't matter what the price of bitcoin is if all of those other metrics are still pointing towards currency debasement
they'll buy bitcoin because it's going to go up it's upwards pressure on bitcoin no matter what
price it is now you still now you're of the opinion that if i'm not mistaken you're of the opinion that
trad fi is treating bitcoin like they've treated gold historically. Because what I've seen, given the recent gold rally in the past year,
it still seems like the large money preference
is still in gold for uncertainty and debasement.
I think it's transitioning to Bitcoin.
It will transition, yeah.
Yeah, okay.
Yeah, but it's more so like how they've treated the stock market.
It's kind of like an in-between of golden stocks because it still has that risk on impulse, which it benefits from.
But also over time, I think as it grows, it's going to also transition to kind of a hedge or a safe haven sort of.
It's very weird. It's like a multifaceted sort of trade
it's it's kind of a one-dimensional trade or how do you call it when it benefits from all of the
aspects of basically yeah it's pretty multifaceted it's almost like the russell 2000 and gold had a
baby but what i've noticed about bitcoin is that like when a war breaks out gold will pop or
something and move up and bitcoin trades more
like you know a russell 2000 type of company which is like we benefit to the upside but we
we're not insulated from that downside like gold not at this point but maybe it could become that
yeah we'll see it'll develop but yeah
data what's going on brother hey what's going on guys i appreciate you having me good to
see a lot of familiar faces donnie max ragsy so yeah i just want to cover what i think for the
markets i know that max and donnie were talking about ethereum recently and i just want to give
my input on that so i agree with everything you guys have been saying, like even Donnie, the price targets 15 to 22 K. That's actually the upper end of mine. But I could absolutely see that, especially with everything coming down the pipeline, because if you look at the ETF flows and you look at, you know, how many how much more Ethereum is gaining versus Bitcoin. I mean, just yesterday, you know, it was over 600 million
versus Bitcoin, which is around 230 million. And so you're seeing ETH flows now reflect
even more so the demand that institutions have versus Bitcoin. And in the market, I mean,
there's a lot of catalysts, obviously, you know, we're interested to see what happens with Trump
and Putin today. But just looking at the government and their accumulation plan for Bitcoin or their, you know, they have yet to announce it.
But the quick 180 that Treasury Secretary Besant said when he said the government wasn't going to accumulate Bitcoin and he immediately reversed it.
And that shows you that obviously they're they're monitoring him and they want to correct him as soon as possible. So they're definitely going to announce an accumulation plan for Bitcoin via tariff savings, gold certificates, what have you, via the Delta Neutral strategy.
But on top of that, you also have BlackRock filing for the ETH staking ETF.
And Max was talking about the Genius Act and the stablecoin bill and how that's so important for ETH's success as well in adoption. Because
for those who don't know, I mean, the biggest stablecoins, USDT, USDC, run on the ETH network.
When ETH is used for gas, it becomes deflationary if a lot of people use it via the EIP 1559
mechanism. So if you have that, and then also you have the ETH staking ETF, which is going to
introduce rehypothecation where people can restake their ETF or their Ethereum multiple times for more APY.
You know, although they set themselves to slashing risk, I mean, that's still going to increase that demand.
And you could even ask yourself further, why are people accumulating EAT so hard now?
Do they know that that EAT staking ETF is about to get approved? Right.
So they want to have that because obviously they're going to be able to stake it to earn
more money.
And everyone always wants that passive income or that yield.
And if you can actually leverage that in a sense by restaking, I mean, that's just going
to introduce a whole nother type of leveraged capital into the space and a whole nother
type of demand for Ethereum.
And so between this back and forth, like Donnie was saying, with Bitcoin and Ethereum, and how Bitcoin
is digital gold, and it's being treated as such. And now you have the introduction of retirement
accounts for, you know, crypto, which we haven't even begun to see the after effects of that,
which is arguably, in my opinion, one of the reasons why the stock market continues to rise
every year is because you have people constantly investing
in these 401ks, these IRAs, and it's just been consistent because they have retirement funds,
right? Like 2055 or 2065 retirement fund. And it's just they invest in that. That's why usually
you've seen stocks just continue higher. So if you have even 5% or 10% of that flow over into crypto,
I mean, a $12 trillion market, I mean, that's going to be,
you know, one to $2 trillion at least. And that's going to be a 50% rise from the current market cap.
And so what's that going to do when most of that money is flowed into the top 100 coins,
particularly the top 20? I mean, that's when you really, like Donnie was saying, I mean,
I'm thinking we're going to top out near May of 2026.
We could go further, but I'm looking at a 250k Bitcoin.
This year, 150k and a 6k Ethereum are my numbers for that.
Just based off of, again, the catalyst and we still have the Clarity Act, most likely
going to get passed into September.
Interest rate cut is going to happen mid-September, which one other thing to watch is the Jackson Hole meeting, August 21st to the 23rd.
And so that's going to give us a good outlook with the Fed, the central banks, what they're thinking for the rest of the year.
But yeah, if we see a 50 basis point cut mid-September, I think that's going to give us the white swan event we're looking for because most are expecting a 25 basis point cut.
Just looking at Pauly Market. poly market but nonetheless i mean the chances
are basically 80 90 percent that we're going to get a cut and so that's most likely going to get
front ran and then we may have a little sell-off mid-september to mid-october and then continue
the q4 run after that but either way right he's playing this month by month i think that the
opportunities ahead of us i mean are so abundant you know, anytime we have dips like we had over the
past few days, I mean, they're buying opportunities. And like, I mean, even what Donnie was saying,
like how, you know, how many opportunities there are and how crazy things can really get. And it's
just, it's hard to time the market. And so you just got to take opportunities as they come. But
nonetheless, I mean, the average person already is priced out of one Bitcoin.
The average family is already priced out of one Bitcoin.
Even the upper middle class, you want to argue, they're nearly priced out of Bitcoin now.
And so it's going to get to that point where having one Bitcoin is going to be as rare as like having one Bugatti or something.
Right. It's like, oh, wow, you have one whole Bitcoin.
Like, man, that's crazy.
And so because the rich look for status symbols in a way, but obviously it's bigger than that.
It's replacing the dollar that's devaluing.
It's hedge against inflation, hedge against uncertainty.
It's all kinds of stuff, right?
And so last thing I just want to spin around because I just remembered is I mentioned BlackRock playing for the ethereum staking etf well recently they did i guess they're uh they
had an interim position in the world economic forum which that's a whole another thing we can
dive into you know some other stream but if you think you know blackrock may be having some say
so in there and there are people joking they're going to rename it to the world ethereum forum
but i mean who knows what kind of influence BlackRock could have in their adoption of cryptocurrency.
Again, I mean, they want to have control.
So who knows if they're going to fully adopt crypto or what kind of leverage BlackRock has.
But that's just another interesting thing.
You're seeing more and more of these institutions getting involved and intertwined with these various organizations.
Web2 companies bridging over to Web3.
And so it's going to be big. And I don't think anyone's ready for the adoption that's going to happen. I mean, we're in the best time to be in crypto right now with the
United States adopting it, multiple countries, nation states, retirement accounts, new bills,
pro-legislation. I mean, everything is just lining up and people get scared on these pullbacks. And
it's just standard redistribution.
And then you're going to get to that accumulation phase again and then just rerun the playbook.
And so, yeah, I'm excited for it.
And I'm loving these conversations because it's just making me more excited about crypto and the long term vision of it.
Just seeing it come to fruition every day just, you know, keeps me keeps me interested and keeps me keeps me staying in the game.
It just keeps me interested and keeps me staying in the game.
What do you guys think?
You see how I've drawn this overlay of BTC and gold?
Because there's mixed opinions because people are expecting a correction in September, right?
And I'm expecting a bit of a correction on BTC as well.
If you just go on that first chart,
the BTC and gold overlay,
let's say we fulfill this
and we head to 150 and form a range
for three, four months.
Do you guys think the conditions in there
are going to be bad for alts or good for alts?
And if you think they're good
and BTC ranges in a deep price discovery level,
shouldn't that mean that like ETH
and the altcoin market go absolutely berserk
and we get our first sort of like alt season wave? So I real quick, and then I see Wabi just
unmute his mic. I'll just do a real quick comment. Yeah, I think it's going to be extremely bullish
for alts because alts haven't had their run yet, right? It's been Bitcoin, Ethereum. You have that
chart with phase one, phase two, phase three, all that. But I do think that alts are very close to
having their run now. And just based off of past cycles, I mean, we that. But I do think that alts are very close to having their run now.
And just based off of past cycles, I mean, we've seen when Bitcoin stagnates,
it's because liquidity is flowing from Bitcoin to altcoins. And you can also even look at USDT
and USDC dominance and obviously other dominance charts, Bitcoin, Ethereum and ETHBTC. But yeah,
100%. I think that, I mean, Bitcoin has had its huge run. It's broken all
time highs recently again. Ethereum, finally, we're seeing that flow over. But then after
Ethereum, there's always the remaining altcoins. And it's not going to be the full blown alt
season we're used to. But, you know, top 20, top 100 altcoins are still going to fly pretty hard,
in my opinion. And you're going to see that, you know, euphoric phase, you could say,
over the next week, two, three weeks weeks and just from the standard rotation right going into meme coins and
i don't know if nfts are going to catch a bit or not but you know yeah i do think there's going to
be definitely some rotation especially if people aren't getting the returns on bitcoin that they're
used to and the tension is kind of flowing away i I mean, that's just the natural phase of cycle rotations.
And so, yeah, 100%.
100% I agree with that.
Donnie, I think what we saw in Bitcoin last year from March to May,
where it ranged and alt went crazy,
I think that's what's going to happen to ETH.
ETH goes into price discovery, chills out for a little bit.
But rather than it being so section heavy, it's going to be multiple things rallying.
I mean, look at what's been going on with Bitcoin over the last couple of weeks.
Bitcoin has been in a range.
We had a break above the upper range at $124.
But, dude, look at what happened with Bucky zero to 50 mil look at some of
the other stuff that have happened on chain on on soul troll went to almost 300 mil we were talking
about troll here at like 25 mil and at 10x same thing with a few tickers on base ray went to like
220 mil coins sent while Bitcoin was in a range so if we just use that for
eth right eth dominance i think of it as eth dominance right you look at what eth did um in
like the middle of q1 where eth dominance ran to 18 19 had a pull ETH relaxed for a little bit while things like Sol, AVAX, and ADA went crazy.
And then ETH put in that second leg in May.
And I think that's kind of what we're doing now, where we're pulling towards that last first half of ETH dominance.
And then you start seeing others BTC start to pull up. And that would entail ETH really just being in a little bit of a
crab step up and then alts sort of go crazy, right? Because it's TradFi buying ETH. Retail is not
buying ETH. You don't have inflows from ETFs overpower IBIT by hundreds of millions because, you know, Paul and Johnny that
work at Home Depot are buying ETH. No, this is Tom Lee and his buddies from the dot-com boom
that have compounded wealth hand over fist decade by decade buying into ETH. It's people that have held Nvidia shares for decades, rotating some of that
capital from their dividends into things like Ethereum. And what people don't understand is
that when you have flows from BlackRock products or Deli products, it's not the actual company
buying it. It's their clients. And their clients are people that have held Amazon stock since the 90s, NVIDIA stock since the 90s.
And once Trump's effects, that bill he passed for 401ks to TWOP into crypto, that is the mother of all pump.
of all pump. That is the mother of all pumps. And truthfully, I think that's what's going to
That is the mother of all pumps.
set us up to eclipse the dot-com high. And what I mean by that is the all-time high for the Nasdaq
composite in March of 2000 was upwards of like 10 trillion plus. And I think that's what we're gonna do i think that's what we're gonna do
but rather than look at total market cap you should be looking at things like total two and
total three i don't want to say total three because that'd be that would be like being overly overly overly optimistic but things like total to everything outside of uh of of
bitcoin for sure for sure and that puts us at an arbitrage of like 300 to the upside so that's a
minimum 4x for for uh for the entire um all coin space so those are those are really my thoughts and and i'm in
agreement with a two wave cycle and i think we're coming to a close with that first wave i think we
just need eth to hit like 7 000 maybe a pullback from 7 000 to 5500 and then eth just pulls out like a two to three x that those are kind of
like my thoughts and i just don't see the cycle wrapping up um from here to like late november
with so much in front of us and and for those that forget most of the gains that occur in q4
happen within the first week of de. Usually volume starts to drop off
after the second week of December. People are going away to vacations. Wall Street goes on
vacation. And the only thing that's happening are small passive flows while people take away
some of their stock market gains to go on vacations. So mean that those are kind of my thoughts man i just don't
really see the cycle wrapping up uh in 12 weeks with so much ahead of us so those are my thoughts
yeah same and you're about to have uh you know leading indicators like dxy uh and obviously what
the fed does and gold confirm the next leg and the direction of that next leg, which,
you know, we're still fulfilling the prior leg of gold on the BTC chart, which, you know,
if those two confirm another leg in the right direction that we want, you're definitely having
a second wave. There's no debate, like at all. There's zero debate. When that happens, it's done.
And yeah, that would push you deep into 2026.
Right now, it's projecting a range for BTC.
And I think because that range is 2x above the prior all-time high,
it's just going to be very euphoric and the conditions are set.
Clearly, you can see on the Bitcoin dominance and ETH BTC charts that alts are going to take liquidity while Bitcoin ranges for about three or four months.
But I think for ETH in this range, we'll see what happens because you've got a bit of resistance
on ETH BTC. Let me just pull up the chart at 0.045. Now, if you rip through that in between
that range, then ETH is going to do disgusting numbers. My target is somewhere around 7 to 11k for this year uh 11k
if you get above that 0.044 on eth btc if you start disrespecting that zone and you look like
you're going to burst through then i think eth could go above 10k this year before the end of
the year but we'll see we'll see if that confirms guys if you are enjoying the space if you are
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we usually go for like two to three hours depending on the day and that day certainly isn't
today so feel free to follow everyone here guys feel free to follow everyone here i'm going to
open up the panel for like five minutes if any of you guys have any questions just for five minutes
if anyone up here on the panel wants to give their thoughts on the market but please be quick
you guys are more than welcome to request but in the meantime ragsy welcome what's going on how are you i caught your tiktok
live you had like a little over 100 people so it seems like people um are starting to become
more active but welcome welcome how are you thanks for coming yeah no we got like 2 000 plus so
there's always only 100 people in
there and get any given time because they're scrolling so they like come in and come out
so i was uh that's usually a good sign if i get over 2 000 or more through the stream
it means people are really interested in um like memes or the crypto market. It's like a little tell. Yeah. My
TikToks are very entertaining, you know, uh, very entertaining cause I'm an actress. So it's more of
a, you know, it's, it's very different than Twitter. It's a lot, it's a lot less, uh, serious
than Twitter, but, um, but yeah, thanks for, thanks for coming on TikTok Live. Yeah, I love having, I love my audience on TikTok Live.
I have a lot of people who've been following me for years on there.
But I love when Max talks about Ethereum.
It gets me so excited because, you know, he's very bullish on Ethereum.
I agreed with a lot of what he said, which is also why I'm such a huge fan of Donnie,
because back in 2024, it seemed like nobody was bullish on Ethereum.
And I'm like, we're all like the Ethereum bulls.
That's what I want to talk about.
And now it's like finally coming.
I think the things that were said on here are really interesting, very thought-provoking, because Donnie, he kind of gave me this idea about this 2026, because I haven't actually heard anybody else say that, truthfully.
it up in the spaces he was on of mine a while ago. And it stuck in my head because if you asked me
like in January in 2024, I would have said the cycle top had to be this year. There was like,
no way. But the way things have played out, especially just in July, we got like crucial
legislation passed in July. And just the way things are moving, the way they didn't cut rates when people thought they were going to cut them and how they've been delayed.
I can really, really see this happening with a cycle top in 2026.
I don't know if deep, when he said deep, he's kind of scaring me because I'm trying to put myself out of my misery here.
I'd like to go straight to 15k and me
leave the internet forever by Christmas would be great so I don't know if he's trying to keep us
here for for another year uh sounds like torture but I don't know I I like this idea and I haven't
really heard anybody else say that that we we would go and he even said could possibly go into 2027. I think what's
possible is because you have such mass adoption of crypto now and the laws are different.
And I think like the whole market could go into price discovery. Like instead of having a full blown bear market, you know, in 2026, I can kind of see
this thing where the whole market goes into price discovery or something and kind of holds and you
don't have those dramatic, devastating blows and corrections to Bitcoin like we've seen in the past.
and corrections to Bitcoin like we've seen in the past. And I think that, yeah, I could totally see
that. I mean, it's not the way I would like it to happen. Like I said, I would like a 15k ETH by
Christmas so I can disappear off the face of the earth. But I mean, if it's going to be like a slow
climb in the next year, I'm cool with it, I guess. I was trying to get out,
get out of here, man. They're trying, the trenches is trying to keep me here forever.
But yeah, ultimately, I think that we are going to get an alt season. I think this was also like
amazing for people just getting into crypto or they were late or they weren't paying attention
because they really had an extended period of time to buy their altcoins, to pick their altcoins up,
right? And ETH and the top ETH memes. So I think all this is interesting. I'm kind of just watching
it play out. You know, everybody knows I'm very long term on ETH and a huge Ethereum person.
And I liked what Max was saying. I liked what Donnie was saying.
I think it's very interesting, this extended cycle. And I think there's definitely like weight
to what he's saying. So yeah, I'm excited. I mean, listen, if they're trying to keep me here for
another year, I'll be here for another year. god but uh i guess that's what i gotta do
so uh but yeah i'm excited overall so we'll see what happens
ragsy are you walking away after this cycle like are you gonna deactivate all social media
when you say get out of here and all that i mean if mean, if ETH goes to crazy numbers, like 15, 20K, something crazy,
there's a good chance you'll never see me again.
I know, it's so sad.
But I always say that.
I said that last cycle.
I said, if Sheba is the next Doge, you'll never see me again.
And then I came back.
So it's like I like to think that I will retire and never come back, and then I always come back. So it's like, I like to think that I will retire and never come back. And then I
always, and then I always come back. It's like that old, old school phrase where like, you got
to kill the, the like person in power or they're always come back to haunt you. And I just keep
coming back because the market hasn't killed me yet. So I guess I'll disappear and then reappear like magic uh sometime in the bear market but uh
but yeah wouldn't that be nice and then i could go live in the woods and build a tent
no no no because that's the real bear market the woods is a real bear market
an actual bear market because there's bears everywhere.
Bears and all kinds of stuff.
I just think it's so funny.
To have, like, imagine you have all your crypto on a ledger.
And everybody's buying their yachts and partying, traveling the world.
And instead, you know, somebody like me, I just disappear.
I go live in the mountains or some shit.
And I have all the crypto on a ledger.
It would be a great movie you have to admit
yeah uh man it depends on what kind of mountain because like what if a bear invades like the cabin
and then eats the ledger or like forest people break into your cabin and stuff
wouldn't there be like no
point in holding crypto if you live in the woods
because like there would be no
barter system there'd be
no like
grocery store to use
yeah
yeah
you give them the buckshot if they break in through
donnie bro would you ever walk away bro like say like eth goes to like 20k next year man would you
like walk away from ct or would you just like i don't know change content a little bit um while crypto just like
cools off like like what would you do like what are your like what do you see after like the market
starts to cool off after others btc gets into price discovery btc dominance is that like 40
percent like what do you kind of see yourself man yeah that's the thing is I feel like everyone or not
everyone but many people have that view because right now things are looking grim they're not as
great as you thought they would be but I think it will be real fun when you have uh you know good
market conditions and everyone's making money and all your friends are here they're asking you about
all that stuff so I wouldn't disappear you also have know, for me, I would want to kind of guide people on the downside of that, because there will be downside.
But I also don't think that downside is going to be as brutal as we've seen in the past. I think
there's a lot of PTSD, the collective consciousness in the market just believes there's this imminent
90% drop coming, where I don't think that's going to happen. It's the polar opposite.
90% drop coming where I don't think that's going to happen. It's the polar opposite.
And also, yeah, if you think
kind of life will just be that easy where you can just park stuff in a ledger
and not worry about it, I think these markets are going to get trickier
over time in terms of your asset allocation. And it's going to be
hard to just walk away as this kind of starts to spiral
into something else because yeah it's a
it's a very like high time frame long view on kind of where the world where i think the world
is headed my world view but yeah it'll be pretty hard to walk away to be honest um you're gonna
have to pay attention and you can have you know months off and stuff and like you know all that
but yeah i think uh walking away while the whole AI arc
is going down and you have this persistent
monetary inflation that's basically funding this
whole thing, you're not going to be able to
walk away.
Yeah.
I'm kind of wondering
what's the next
AI low cap?
What is your
palantir at $5? I think that's going to come during the
next downturn, man. Um, that's going to be such a huge trade, man. And remember we said back in
November, the real, the real trade is getting the gains that you make this bull run and shoving it
at the next bear market lows. Cause the next bear market lows, you're going to have Trump at your
side. And like we said back in November, there is no other administration that you want at bear market lows because the next bear market lows you're going to have trump at your side
and like we said back in november there is no other administration that you want at your side
to pump up these markets like a trump administration and we saw that unfold in real time
the playbook was there in front of our faces unfolding in real time and it was insane a step-by-step increment brother
directed by scott besant directed by scott besant but we got someone up here nerd mond
what's going on bro welcome welcome man hey guys how we doing you good
What's going on, bro?
Welcome, welcome, man.
Hey, guys.
How we doing?
You good?
All solid, man.
Welcome, welcome.
It's good, good, good.
Is that a Bucky on your shoulder, man?
It's not, actually.
I'm not going to plug another coin, but maybe I'm going to change it.
I just like Pokemon, so I'm not going to change the thing,
but maybe I'll change the green guy.
First thing I just wanted to say to Ragsy is if you go live in the mountains don't
worry about bears because after this all season there aren't going to be any left so that's the
first thing um and secondly um it's quite interesting about timing and stuff uh going
into next year obviously the landscape has completely changed on this cycle uh all-time
high before a halving with bitcoin etfs institutions countries
and stuff like that so you know i can definitely see um a longer cycle there's a lot of people
that are trying to call tops right now um and although you know never say never you don't know
but just from what donnie's been saying over the last couple of spaces and for quite a while, it makes more sense.
It takes a lot of time for things to filter down from the top.
And therefore, I definitely think we're going to have a longer cycle.
And to be honest with you, I mean, I just can't see us not having the all season that we're supposed to have.
Like, I know there's a lot of people,
like I said,
trying to call tops and stuff,
but I just feel like it's too early.
It would be a horrible turn of events if we didn't have an all season,
but I just feel like it's,
it's a given at this point,
to be honest with you.
You know,
that song by,
by the Eagles,
the hotel, the Hotel California?
That's my theme song, Crypto, because you can check out, but you can never leave.
That's like the best thing.
Yeah, I agree.
I mean, everybody says they're going to make money and leave, right?
But realistically, everybody comes back.
This space is just too exciting and too forward moving, in my opinion. And if you don't make
money this cycle, then you're going to come back to try and make it next cycle. And if you do make
money this cycle, then realistically, you're going to put that in at the bear market low,
in my opinion. So yeah, I definitely think there's a lot of PTSD still floating about from, you know, February from last bear market.
But I definitely think that once crypto has got you, it's got you really.
Let's be honest.
Yeah, I'd like to think I would disappear.
I said that last time when Shiba hit 40 billion.
I was like, bye, guys.
This is the last time you'll see me.
And then like a week later, seven days, seven days, baby, I was like, bye guys. This is the last time you'll see me. And then like a week,
seven days, seven days, baby. I was back. I'm like, what's up? Who's ready for the panel? That's it. That's it. Donnie, I have a question for you. Do you, um, obviously I've
seen all your tweets and stuff today. You called the journey for Bucky so far beautifully. Do you
think that the low is in, or do you think that we potentially might deviate a high somewhere
and then come back down?
What are you thinking on that?
No, I think the low is in, bro.
I think the low is in.
I also think that because of these low-cap Solana tokens
and how hyped up they are right now,
with the whole ecosystem war between Bonk and Pump,
I think any sort of tailwind on the BTC side,
these tokens are just going to start rapidly appreciating again.
So I think the only reason it even pulled back, to be fair,
from that 30 mil rally off the low is because of the BTC sentiment in the rest of the market.
It does affect check coins and all that as well.
Of course.
Yeah, of course.
Well, that's good to know.
We've been topping up on our side.
So yeah, we're ready to send it.
The thing with that token that's impressed me the most is, first of all, it was literally
just me and Wabi kind of talking about it at the time.
And you're seeing literally, well, if you guys are paying attention to the trenches, that is.
But if you're not, there's tons of big insider communities that are hooked up with exchanges,
big marketing campaigns they can push on Twitter.
They're struggling to get tokens above 20 mil, let alone a token touching 50 mil.
So quickly as well.
That quickly in one wave right in the first wave right it launches and goes to find its you know first uh wave one high it is like one in a million rarity
to go to 50 million without a pullback and then also put in a low of 12.3 some of the best runners
that we've had recently of like troll even in even in the past market wave like FWOG,
they went to about 42, pulled back to like 8, 9 mil.
So again, Bucky's pulling better metrics than that
in front of better market conditions.
Literally first time in three years
that we might be having old season,
where even if you'd known nothing
about the narrative whatsoever,
just looking at those metrics
and seeing it break the all-time high one more time,
you know it can put in numbers
that they're putting in, if not greater.
So you could just run the math playbook on it
and be interested in taking that trade,
let alone, I believe,
the actual narrative is super strong.
The market basically told us with FWOG
that it does have an appetite
to bid this sort of Solana sequel to Pepe
on the actual meme coin chain, which
is Solana.
And they took that thing to 700 million in the Q4 of 2024 rally, which again, I believe
these market conditions ahead are much better than that.
And it's going to last a lot longer.
That one got halted by a FOMC hawkish pivot on the 16th of December of that year.
So it barely even lasted before things got sour real quick.
Whereas this time we've got the complete polar opposite of rate cuts imminent
with BTC deep into price discovery.
So I think it could be one of the best trades of the year, to be honest.
Let's see how it all unfolds.
And the best part about it is that that ecosystem is actually endorsing a lot of
tokens that have launched on their platform.
And the more that they hold out for mentioning Bucky and getting involved in it, the better.
If this thing hits 100 million and they get involved, I really think as a collective,
they could take it deep into the billion mark, to be honest,
because they're clearly hooked up with all of these exchanges and stuff.
They got useless on Coinbase, Binance US, even other tokens in their ecosystem are catching
Bybit listings.
So when you have a token narrative as strong as Bucky, that's already pulling 50 mil better
than any other token on the market.
And you add all of those catalysts on top.
It's literally just math of, okay, right old season, get the catalyst out the way, 500
million to a billion.
Like, that's just how it works. all happens in one way yeah i i personally know a lot of people i mean i know you saw my tweet i was looking uh what i was hoping for high eights
uh to 11 for and for a really nice kind of deep uh deep kind of dca but i personally know a lot
of people that that were thinking you know
five six mil so i know personally there are a lot of people with a lot of money that are
sidelined on this so you know i can definitely i can definitely see it but um yeah i'll continue
to sideline them nerdmond perfect perfect perfect thank you guys thank you well if two had already passed this in my opinion there's a i make up my own terms for solana
it's a meme stress test i don't know what is the ragsy stress test so a lot of these okay
so a lot of these super centers what donnie just said how how the bucky went to 50 mil
there it's inevitable it's going to have a hard correction when something pumps that much.
You see now with every major token,
the question is how low does it dump and is it going to break below that low?
And I know Donnie charted it out, but I don't have it in front of me.
But from my, from what I saw for the majority of the time,
it could not go below 13 mil.
There might have been a second a time it was lower, but that was for the most part.
And it bounced kind of in the area three times, right?
That's very rare.
From what I have seen, it's rare in the sense that every major token that has done that has survived to some degree.
With a lot of the new senders that you saw in Solana that might have went to 30 mil.
I don't think a lot have touched 50 really.
But a lot that maybe went to 20 or 30 mil.
They slowly just declined and they never, ever, ever came back.
It's just like a slow bleed down to a couple mil, right?
So this one is clearly holding holding i've been watching it i have it on my big screen it's one of the charts that's just always
permanently up here it's nice it's still it's still above 20 right now it's for solana that's
pretty good you know pretty good for especially for like a bigger cap token. It's very rare that something graduates to a mid cap like that and holds and doesn't slow bleed down under 10 mil.
So, you know, I think you guys are doing an outstanding job here.
I still got my Bucky. I had a little more on the dip.
And the speed that got there as well is something of note, really, because other things can grind up, but this just kind of, yeah,
buckshot it straight there.
And the fact that it hasn't bled down to like five or six or seven,
it's kind of held that floor.
It's really impressive.
And it's basically flipped the entire leaderboard in the Bonk ecosystem
with literally not even a hint
of recognition from the team.
Not even a comment, not even a like.
Nothing.
That shows you raw demand for this
meme. People love it.
It's just that simple.
Ring, ring, ring.
Ring, ring, brother.
Pick up the damn phone.
They're definitely seeing that 70% on the day, though.
They're definitely seeing that.
That phone's going to get picked up soon, for sure.
I honestly, I would much prefer it above 100 million
because it would literally teleport the token to 300 plus.
Because the token, again, the token narrative is so strong,
clearly because it hit 50 mil and bottomed at 12.3
and now wants to push higher to a new all-time high.
It's just math.
Yeah.
If they're not seeing the phone ring,
they're definitely seeing the pictures
that you keep putting on these posts.
Dude, and the engagement is insane, dude.
It is an actual army.
It's an actual army.
Yeah, if you want an engagement hack, just make some Bucky posts and you'll rack up 200 likes per post.
I'm going to bring up this business guy because he's always active in the replies.
Business, what's up?
What's up, man?
Let's send this shit to fucking 800 million.
Let's do it.
Let's do it.
I'm excited about this chart.
I've never seen anything like it since ice cream. That's how delicious it is. Since ice cream. You hear
me? So we're going to send this to 700 million really fast. I think it's just going to jet
there. Just like soak in the blink of an eye. That's what I think. And yeah, man, we got
to keep rating. My question is, do you guys think that we should set up a Telegram chat
My question is, do you guys think that we should set up a Telegram chat or you guys don't like that?
or you guys don't like that?
No TG, no Cabal, just buck shots.
Yeah.
Okay.
Yeah.
Dude, talking about ice cream, let me see where Dairy Queen stock is valued at.
Wouldn't it be funny if Bucky were to flip?
What the?
Oh, no.
That's Berkshire Hathaway.
I'm sorry.
Dairy Queen doesn't even have a stock.
Isn't there like an ice cream company with a stock?
Maybe Cold Stone?
Bro, even Useless, their number one token on their ecosystem,
hit 40 mil wave one, bottomed at 4, 5-ish,
and then obviously went to 400 with the full backing of the team.
But it's outperforming their number one token
with no involvement, no catalyst,
nothing.
Yeah.
I was just going to say, yeah,
it is a
really good sign that you guys held
this and it popped back
up here. I've been doing this
since
2023 every day. is like really good
they would be bonk if you're listening i got a couple of the bunk guys following me you would
be crazy you'd be out of your mind not to support this project 100 organic cto they'd be out of
their mind if they this is so good it is so rare that that happens organically you know without a cabal
and i'm looking at the top memes on bonk right now right it's obviously bonk itself and then
on bonk fun you have useless this is the this is out of the top 10 this is the best meme
in my opinion for real though not just because i got got it early. It's the best one. So I think you crazy, uh, not to support it, but regardless, you guys doing a killer job and, um,
you definitely have my bet on it and I think you guys are going to run it. So yeah. Congratulations
again. I just quickly, I also, I also just think as mentioned before, like this is so unique, right? Everyone can find a meme online and reshare it.
But on most memes, you can't make your own meme and reshare it.
Whereas this is where the virality is coming through on this and the originality as well.
You know, people are coming up with some absolutely hell.
You want Bucky Bucky. That is just too funny, you know.
So, you know, people are coming up with some really, really funny original memes and everybody has a different sense of humor.
And I think that's why it's reaching so many people, because, you know, it's not just a stock meme.
You can make it. You can make your own. And yeah, it's something special. definitely, for sure.
All right, guys.
I'm going to go ahead and put a nice little chart up on the nest with my arrows and bullish divergences.
ETH BTC, the moment that thing gaps up, back to 0.05, all coins are going to be extremely fruitful.
And guys, if you've been enjoying the space and this is your first time tuning in, we are Because Bitcoin.
We go live here throughout the week.
We have spaces Mondays wait yes mondays
wednesdays thursdays and fridays the usual start time is between 4 30 p.m est to 4 45 p.m est
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And so, guys, if you've enjoyed this content, feel free to follow everyone up here.
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And just in case you guys have been in and out of the space and you want to re-listen to everything, the space is recorded.
been in and out of the space and you want to re-listen to everything the space is recorded
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as whenever it is that we speak sometimes we put some visual stuff up on here so you guys can uh
can have a visual look along with all the audio stuff so we'll see you all on monday at the same time but uh donnie
ragsy data thank you so much for coming on up here max thank you so much for coming on up here
if you guys have any uh last words to say feel free uh to say them before i uh wrap up shop here
but if you guys want to say anything yeah i just wanted to say real quick to everyone in the audience I mean this panel here that we have Donnie Wabi Ragsy nerd everyone like this is what
it means to have a panel that actually puts in the time and research every single day and listen to
them when they talk about community tokens what it means to actually have organic growth looking at
charts analyzing various metrics that others may not even look at and just shill you garbage
projects like this is exactly how a panel should be and i'm glad to be a part of it and also you know hopefully
everyone learned a lot here and i'm looking forward to you know speaking on future ones and
also listening to you guys because i always learn something new every time i'm here so
just want to say thanks and yeah awesome stuff on bucky so far like that thing's going to 100
mil plus so looking forward to it and supporting the project as well let's go man well guys thank you thank you thank you once again follow everyone
up here on the panel follow because bitcoin account follow the because bitcoin account
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and in case you guys want to use a trading terminal to up your strategy to navigate these markets we do
have our own trading terminal called bb terminal i'll go ahead and put that on the nest and we also
covered bucky on uh on on terminal which is quite fun we have a lot of indicators that you can use
and through bbd gen we will be activating on-chain order
execution and also we will be releasing an app very soon so you'll be able to execute trades on
the go with a nice awesome interface so think of it as a uh as a bridgeless hyper liquid decks, we're going to be able to trade on chain with assets across abstract base, AVAX, ETH mainnet, Solana, anything you can think of.
You're going to be able to trade it.
And if you want to join our inner circle community, we have links to that in our bio.
And if you guys have any questions in regards to that, you can always DM us with any questions.
Donnie also runs his own ship,
and you guys can DM him if you want to join his group,
one of the only paid services that I can vouch for.
Ragsy has her own stuff as well.
So guys, support everyone up here on the panel.
Support all the content that is put here on the Nest,
and thank you all so much for tuning in.
Thank you, thank you, thank you all so much for tuning in thank you thank you thank you have a
blessed weekend and i'm gonna go ahead and um put some music on to uh close off the space so
thank you guys um i was watching this movie but i forgot the name of it. I was going to recommend it, but maybe another time.
But all right, guys, peace out.
God bless you all.
It's been a fun, fun, fun space over the last two hours.
Later, guys. later guys I'm sorry I guess not. Oh I and I'll experience it for you small. I'm sure you're not.
I'm sure you're not.
I'm sure you're not.
I'm sure you're not.
