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Market Talk- ITS OVER?! WHERE IS THE BOTTOM?! NEW LOWS FOR BTC SOON?!
Recorded: March 27, 2026 Duration: 2:21:00Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. you Oh
Big Thank you. Goodness and burden, cursing scraps of faith, of a tale and sorrow of eternity.
Seen the earth and green perfection,
keep the mouth and frame,
resentful compose,
and break your back.
All you bear,
all you carry,
all you bear, you is Music Oh when i see your back
yes It's time to be guys! It's time to be guys! Yes! No! Here Okay. I think it's a good one. Thank you. I'm so excited. I'm so excited. I'm so excited.
I'm so excited.
I'm so excited.
I'm so excited.
I'm so excited.
I'm so excited.
I'm so excited.
I'm so excited.
I'm so excited.
I'm so excited.
I'm so excited. I'm so excited. Whiskey rate has begun, heavy is the crowd.
Beaten down and broken, double wears you down.
Overload the heart of the jungle,
Heat of the ground and heavy broken.
I'll let no nothing sell, only double on your pride.
All you've been, all you've been, all you've been, All you've been in the world. You can take it.
All you've been in the world.
All you've been in the world.
All you've been in the world.
All you've been in the world.
All you've been in the world.
All you've been in the world.
All you've been in the world.
All you've been in the world.
All you've been in the world. All you've been in the world. All you've. Nice. Nice.
Nice.
Nice.
Nice.
Nice.
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Nice.
Nice.
Nice.
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Nice.
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Nice.
Nice.
Nice.
Nice.
Nice.
Nice.
Nice. Nice. Nice. Nice. Nice. Nice. Nice. Music Yo, what's going on guys?
Happy Friday.
Happy Friday.
Or happy Saturday.
Wherever you are.
It's quite the volatility that we're seeing in the market today.
S&P, Qs, pretty much everything is melting down today on TradFi.
Crypto, we're kind of diddling in the middle right now.
And oil is now gapping up a bit.
is now gapping up a bit um as i said yesterday it's probably gonna fill uh the price that it
was trading at on hyper liquid and that is gonna be um pretty interesting i think that would
essentially mark oil right around uh 2022 prices right when oil peaked in June. We also saw energy trend during that time.
And I positioned for that trade for Solaris, which is a little bit down today, but everything else is just melting down, man. If I were a betting man, I would say SPX probably bottoms at like
5,700 or something like that. I think that's a classic retracement of about 15% or so.
Qs, I have no idea.
The Qs is a fucking beast in my opinion.
But the S&P I think is a little bit easier to track compared to the Qs
because the Qs are honestly like an altcoin right now we've had a lot of the mag 7 and some of
these other tech names react like like altcoins really um and that's something to take note of
like i've entertained the fact that there have been a lot of people in crypto that have just
migrated the liquidity over to trad find that's why you've seen a lot of the
movement on some of these names even with something like a sandisk that was trading well over a hundred
billion market cap move like altcoins and then you see things like solana essentially being pinned
down to this huge range for a year and a half while tech just went absolutely ballistic
if you guys take a look at solana um from march of 2024 all the way up until up until tech peaked
out in october november of last year solana was basically flatlined against a lot of big tech and funny enough Sandisk is actually doing on the day, which is which is which is funny, man.
Same thing with Micron and stuff like that. But it is quite the day in equity markets, man. And I am not keeping up with the war for what it's worth. I'm not keeping up
with any of it. It's kind of been the same thing, right? Whenever Tradify has a red week, Trump will
try to taco on a Sunday. And then on that Sunday, when futures open up,
it ends up being green.
We pump Monday all the way going into Tuesday
and then we dump going to the second half of the week.
But shout out to a few people that caught some puts
on some of the Mag 7.
Shout out to Sullivan.
He's printing on those puts.
Same thing with some other people that had some puts on.
I think Evan had some puts on Palantir recently.
And Palantir is also grinding a bit down.
It's not at new year-to-date lows yet.
But you have to ask yourself if, I would say if the S&P loses February highs of last year at 6,100,
you probably have a gap up on vol,
and then usually you have some sort of mean reversion.
Whenever you start seeing the VIX explode,
it has a day where it just explodes after grinding
up for a bit i'm not a vix expert but i have seen this thing whenever tommy sullivan whenever he
starts talking about vol expansion um it's it basically starts looking like a shit coin like if you pull up the vix and you pull up the last 365 days of
trading this thing looks like an altcoin that is floored out and it's about to put in a massive um
gap up candle and um it's not that far away from the levels that that we were trading at um in late
22. i think we're actually right at those
levels actually i think the vix was trading in the early 30s when uh the market had bottomed out
in october of 2022 but um if you just take into account whatever the hell is going on in the
middle east all this crap about tacos chipotle and all that stuff, bombs, whatever, drafts,
then you could expect a little bit more turmoil to happen, a little bit more uncertainty
and some of the same shenanigans to go on.
One of the things that we've discussed, of course, is oil.
I still think the meat of the move has already been complete for what it's worth
i don't think you get a move that you had from 60 bucks all the way to 100 from these levels at 90
plus where effectively a lot of the people that are even left to trade this market they're all
jumping on oil as if it were gold so my dubious speculation is just fill the wick on hyperliquid
get everyone bowled up thinking it's going to go to 200 a barrel right the same narrative that was
yapped about in 2022 how inflation is going to go to 20 or whatever it is and that's the end of that and it all ends it always ends in a huge um vol day almost always right um yen carry
trade we had that huge spike in vol uh last spring huge spike in vol um late 2022 was it was a bit
different vol was kind of elevated during a lot of elevated during a lot of that period.
But anyways, I'm not going to talk about Vol as much.
I'm not a Vol expert.
Sullivan, if you want to come up and tell us how it's all over
and just say how Chud Jacks are going to be blown out and then resurrected.
Look, I'm just a chud enjoying my
chud life all right i hear all this talk about tacos burritos and all this stuff about how that's
going to pump the market um but anyways i still think that what we're seeing, at least for now, for now, is just kind of what we saw in the second half of
2023, but
I will say
it is going to be interesting to watch how
majors react.
Should the S&P have a weekly
close below February
2025 highs?
If you guys remember, that was
kind of
a sticky level right after the elections?
S&P didn't really do much.
They didn't really do much for like three months, honestly.
If you compare that to the range that we've been in, yeah, it's a bit longer.
But you know what happens
when you uh when you break those ranges right there does tend to be uh an aggressive move
right a huge move um a huge move in vol whether it's to the upside whether it's the downside and a lot of dubious narratives, right? Last year, when we had that melt up from
those lows, you had Besant basically saying how everyone that's short in the economy is screwed.
And then you also had Besant, I think it was in December or something like that,
where he said, take your foot off the gas for a little bit for the next few months
and then just come back when we're about to go into midterms.
I kind of forgot about that, really.
And we'll see, man, if we end up doing that v reversal it doesn't have to right
um i'm not sure why my voice is like this today uh i think i've only got two more days to be on
the meds and i had my first training session yesterday and everything felt heavy.
It honestly sucks.
My powers, my power level went from 9,000 all the way to like 600 or something like that.
It was honestly disheartening.
But I guess that just happens when you're taking antibiotics and stuff to recover from a surgery. But anyways, guys, I'm going to go ahead and pass it over to the speakers. But before that, guys, before that, if any of you want to come up and talk, it is Friday.
like to have some of you guys come on up and yap and all that good stuff so if you want to come up
and yeah hit that request button and of course guys if y'all can go ahead and show some love
to the stream the show best way to do that guys is by clicking the spaces tab once you guys do that
right above our profile pictures you'll see up on the, you'll see a link that says x.com slash i slash spaces.
Once you guys click that, if you can go ahead, hit the like button, repost button, it'll make me happy.
It'll make me feel better.
And it'll bring on more people to the show and all that good stuff.
And who knows, as I always say, if you guys share the stream,
it could potentially bring in some people that you guys follow here on X.
And I'll send them an invite to speak.
Usually when there's a market that is vast with volatility,
as we've seen over the last couple of months.
It does bring about some mouths and eyes and ears to these shows.
People love to discuss markets when they go crazy,
whether it's at the upside, whether it's the downside.
And spaces are recorded as always.
So once again, welcome back to Market Talk brought to you by BB. My name's Wabi, and we're
going to go ahead and yap markets for the next hour or two hours or three hours or even four.
two hours or three hours or even four.
So anyways, I'm going to pass it on over to David.
David, just tell us how it's all over, how everything is cooked,
and it's time for Michael Saylor to file for bankruptcy, man.
Well, that's not what I think.
So I don't know why you would lay that
absurd construct down.
It was a
very unserious statement about the way I look
at things. What's over
is the free long
that I called for, the
asymmetry long on October 28,
2022.
Very clear to me that the market nobody wanted to touch any tech stock.
And I said it would be a 15-year rally, the best rally in 15 years that would last for a few years
in ComTech and discretionary. What is three years after October 28, 2022?
It's October 28, 2025.
And what happened on October 6th?
Bitcoin peaked.
And now, how many people really believe Bitcoin's ever going to a new high in this decade?
Seriously?
Michael Saylor bought the most coins he's ever bought.
And how much is his cost?
Do you know what his cost is right now over at Saylorville per coin?
I think it's like $70,000 or something like that. No, no, it's $75,000 now because he bought so many.
I see, I see.
So he's down $10.
So he's down 12%, 13% on his coin.
So he's rapidly going into negative equity.
And if he, as a clown, in my opinion, thinks he can just say these crazy things, like he was on CLSD the other day, and he's saying,
we could handle for infinity a 2% rise in Bitcoin. We'll pay
all of our STRC. What he's not mentioning is that's theoretically his current STRC.
And he said 50 years if there's no appreciation. What he didn't explain is what happens when it
goes down. What he didn't explain is he's going to be buying a lot more coin
by selling a lot more STRC.
He didn't highlight the fact
that he's had to raise the coupon on STRC
from 9 to 11.5,
25 basis points every single month,
essentially, that it's been out.
And now they're having to decide, do they stay
at 11.5? Do they go to 11.75? Do they try to get to 11.25? Or do they have to go to 12?
Because they're trading at distressed levels. You do not have to pay 7.5% more than Treasuries if you're a quality company.
So he's got real problems.
But let's talk about something serious, Wabi.
Let's talk about Microsofty.
Microsoft had its lowest weekly close of 52 weeks.
Amazon is trading at 6% above the price it was six years ago.
Bank America and Bitcoin are below its peak from five years ago.
This, in my opinion, garbage pile, pumped up freak show of a company, I-R-E-N,
that people should take a serious look into before they touch it on the long, oh, the shorts.
A stock that has 800% from its high?
Is that liquid? When Microsoft can't raise capital, when Microsoft is hemorrhaging
capital, Microsoft's down, what, 35% from its high? And someone's going to touch a pile of garbage?
And anyone who talks about this on the long side with conviction? It's scary. It's scary what they let people go out there so micro up in the nest look microsoft
meta look at the monthly closes these monthly closes you go back to 2023 for microsoft and
you go back before the rate cuts so if you you cut rates, Wabi, does that do absolutely nothing for the equity markets?
Or in a large sense, it's more supportive most of the time?
The answer is most of the time it's more supportive.
It'll be less supportive in this environment.
But you cut 175.
You got rid of a trillion QT.
You added a variation of QE for a half a trillion. And you have Microsoft below all of that.
And you have Meta below all of that. And people want to buy garbage companies?
And I don't mean waste management because that's
probably a buy. The U.S. economy is going to be fine. It's the rest of the world that is screwed
so hard you can't imagine. How much capital is going to come into America to get our energy,
to Canadian energy, Mexican energy, Venezuelan energy. That's $16 a barrel to lift.
You've got what's going on in the Gulf.
They say 30% to 40% damage to their infrastructure.
20% of the world's LNG is not accessible.
In Qatar, Asia pays $20 a BCF. We're at three. A barrel of oil in America equivalent from
natural gas, that's 5.85 ratio, is 20 bucks. We had oil close around 100.
close around 100. But if you're near it, fertilizer, chemicals, you could do data.
How much cheaper is it going to be to generate data in America at $3 a BCF versus $20 in Asia?
So people talking about the war as a pure negative, it's just going to redo some of the pieces on the board.
Today, for two days in a row, or net of two days, yields stopped reacting on the two-year to oil.
Oil went up, yields didn't.
And we had a flattening of the curves, essentially all of them below the 200-day moving averages.
When you cannot get someone to buy Microsofty,
despite all the natural automatic flows,
and then you hear Robinhood,
I think one of the spokespeople or analysts,
what do you think happens when you lose $2 trillion of equity in crypto?
What do you think these handheld trading platforms, how they're going to do?
Throw in all the loss in the S&P 500,
which pressures the big tech stocks,
which puts more pressure on the little tech stocks,
double-digit returns near 20% in some of the storage companies.
And I don't mean, what's that,
CubeSmart storage.
I'm talking about data storage.
Folks, equity is leaving innovation
because they need the help of a weak dollar.
Just going over the numbers, February 25, 1985, King Fahd is basically visiting America in this time frame, getting feted by Reagan.
George Bush Sr. was treating him like a king, the king of Saudi Arabia.
And the dollar peaks at $164.72.
23 years later, it bottoms at 70.805.
It fell 57%.
And that was policy because the Fed and Treasury, Jim Baker,
arranged for the Plaza Accords that Trump once owned,
the Plaza Hotel on Central Park,
South, which I've run by nine times in the marathon, personal plug, and they conspired,
collaborated, or contributed to a suppression of the dollar, which means let's put inflation on Main Street and help banks and
oligarchs. And just like when you're dealing with weather and you're dealing with a calendar,
you go through December 21, the shortest day of the year, you go through February 6th,
you're already halfway through winter, and you don't warm up.
Hey, David, I got to jump in here.
Are you now bullish oil?
Because the last time you and I spoke,
you thought oil was going to $30.
Are you kidding me?
And then you blocked me.
Wait, wait, wait.
Are you kidding me?
That clown statement?
Of course I'm bullish oil.
I was bullish oil on the first bomb.
I was bullish oil.
Wait, wait, clown.
Hey, clowny, I was bullish oil when they... bomb. I was bullish oil. Wait, wait, clown. Hey, clowny.
I was bullish oil when they...
You told me and blocked me.
Wobby, Wobby, if you don't block him, I'm gone.
Because he's not letting me tell what I said.
Exactly.
I said when they got the first...
Hold on, guys.
Hold on, hold on, hold on.
I'm going to have to pause the break here.
I can't have clowns.
I can't come to you.
Wait.
I tried muting him. I actually have the break here. I can't have clowns. I can't come to you. Wait, I tried muting him.
Like, I actually have the mute button.
Okay.
We're going to try this again, all right?
We're going to talk one by one, okay?
So, David, go ahead, man.
Anyways, I'm glad you're on the right team now.
That's all.
That's all.
Okay, you've got to block that clown.
The only clown, David, is you.
Okay, shut up, clowny, or you'll chase me out.
That's your goal.
Oh, what are we worried about?
The guy that gets the markets wrong,
or I'm gone. I told you
I won't put up with people lying about my
calls. When the
first boat was seized in Venezuela,
I said oil up.
You take oil off, you start
a conflict in Venezuela,
oil up.
So a clown loser liar like
this, who gets to pretend like I didn't say that and post about
it and talk about it, is a clown loser liar. We don't need that. I can't go on when they're allowed
to lie about me. I'm trying to help people not have people lie about my views. Now, oil's going
up. They're going to run out of oil in a lot of Asian countries.
But if you could watch the currencies in India, Indonesia, in Korea, Egypt, Pakistan, Bangladesh,
their currencies are melting down. We're going to have massive demand destruction.
They're going to be shutting down planes.
They're going to be doing work from home.
Going to massive.
We're going to get into balance a lot before people think.
But anyone who doesn't think America is going for market share gains,
we have $3 gas in America.
They're paying seven times almost in Asia. Venezuela will go to 4 million barrels.
We're going to add 2 million with fracking. Canada's getting at least the XL, Keystone XL.
They'll get another one. But this is a nickel and dime story. Anybody who thinks it's a safe
and smart long-term bet to buy Microsoft and Meta and Amazon and Apple.
When the war ends, you'll get a trade, probably.
But you're missing what's going on.
This oil spike is having a rather limited effect on a very low energy to GDP ratio in America compared to emerging markets.
Saudi Arabia has 5 million barrels going west towards the Red Sea. We've got demand destruction. China had two cargo ships
blocked by Iran. Let prices do what they're going to do, but there is no case for long-term oil staying above $60 a barrel. There
is none. There's only lunatics who don't have good math. We're seeing the dollar go up. The
dollar had its high. It's not the end of the month. It's three more days, two more days.
It's the highest monthly close in post-liberation day. Bitcoin's down. Add up all the money we've lost between
crypto, between the S&P is down 5 trillion, crypto's down 2 trillion, gold is down 6 trillion,
silver is down a trillion. It's a lot of money. The system is leveraging up because the equity
is evaporating and individual investors that have been buying
every dip, they don't have anything left. All the people on all these shows that say,
where's a good place to do a DCA? Where can I buy some? They don't have any money. They're lying.
Why didn't anyone ever say, you know, where's a good place to sell a rally?
place to sell a rally. You now have some individual investors selling rallies.
You now have some individual investors selling rallies.
When we get through May 11th and starting on May 21th, when I called the bottom after Trump's
liberation date on my podcast, that's on Apple and Spotify, I called for a prompt. That means now
volatility, Vega suppression driven FANG rally.
Vega suppression-driven fang rally.
Then we had rate cuts.
Then we got rid of QT.
But that divot, that Trump policy that you call a taco,
that other people call strategic,
because he did get China tariffs from 32 to 37,
that ain't nothing.
We get through April 21, May 11th.
You know how many companies are going to be on the 52-week low
whose lows were masked by that suppression of price.
How about a rising dollar, the dollar breaker?
You want a dollar at a one-year high?
We have the greatest mispositioning of the dollar in 14 years.
Combine that with the lowest volatility nearly on record in currency.
That is a recipe for a much stronger dollar. And anybody who wants to buy gold and oil when the dollar is going up needs to go look at
history. They don't survive. Liquidity can move things up as they take money from one place to
another. People buy options. You can see the volatility up. But I'm asking people to watch prices
and exclude some of their analytics,
some of their sentiment.
You have a 52-week low on Microsoft,
the lowest monthly close,
if this was two days into the future,
since 2023.
It is a source of funds, along with Bitcoin,
for virtually all assets in the world.
They're the worst performing assets.
And they're big.
NVIDIA is at $168.
It was $141 almost on June 18, 2024.
Do you really want to make $27?
10% a year on NVIDIA with all that volatility.
Look at the financials.
Look at the XLF.
It looks like it's straight down for the year.
Go look at Berkshire Hathaway.
It's a money market that's trading at $2 for a dollar of assets.
And the new guy thinks the answer is, let me destroy shareholder value
by buying the stock at two times book
that Warren Buffett had banned.
He had banned the treasurer from buying any stock
at this high multiple.
And then you have these chats talking about,
we can get your insurance much cheaper
because we can sterilize the variability between policies
and get you the cheaper.
What do you think is going to happen to the, what do they call them, annuity industry?
An annuity is a treasury strip paired with an equity investment, packaged with a giant marketing fee of 6% to 10% for the seller of that.
It's going to be a disaster for the annuity business.
The statement that it's guaranteed,
you know what?
If you didn't have AIG bailed out,
you got real problems.
So please watch these prices.
Don't fantasize that you'll just go
from a three-year low to a new high.
There's a lot of stock that's got to be absorbed
along the way. And that explains why Bitcoin can't get out of its own way. go from a three-year low to a new high, there's a lot of stock that's got to be absorbed along
the way. And that explains why Bitcoin can't get out of its own way. We closed at the lowest
weekly close of the year, the lowest weekly close since the peak. Do you want people to
talk about that? Or do you want to pretend like it's not the case? These are facts, these are prices, these are reality you cannot wish them away
and if you think it's only oil
if you think it's only oil
you're wrong
oil's a factor
but we're losing liquidity
and the dollar going up is a measurement
okay, you can have the mic back.
I was going to ask you, what do you think about the move index shredding up?
What does that mean?
So people are buying volatility because they believe that oil is going much higher
and that that's going to be inflationary and that the Fed might raise rates
and that will cause a bear steepener.
And so people are just buying puts like crazy.
And that is what's moving up the yield on the long end.
We have flattened massively this week until today.
You've got everyone on the street steeped the curve, and it really hurt them badly.
And if you look at all these charts, the three-year, the two, the five-year, the two, the 10-year, the two, the 10-year, the five year the two the ten year the two the ten
year the five the thirty the five all of these things have flattened below their 200 day they're
all ready for golden cross so it's direct it's it's uh mortgage dynamics you know you you have
people backing away from buying mortgages it It's causing mortgage rates to go up. Mortgage rates are up 65 basis points since the war.
The mortgage bonds are down total return, almost 3%.
3% principal, and they have 40 basis points of coupon.
So it's, you know, for the premium stuff.
So it's minus 2.6.
And people are doing their hedging.
And it's involuntary. It's
involuntary. It's mechanical. Mortgages
I've always said, they're mechanical.
People have models.
The flattener is going to bring
much, much lower mortgage rates.
Oil accelerating higher.
Oil closing over 100.
People are doing their hedging.
It's soon enough to wait for it to work.
If you look at just the TLT or the ZROZ,
there's like a 7% to 8% annual range
for everything on the other side of next month
when we get through Liberation Day.
And so some people say, oh, we're near a low.
We can get a move. let's gang up on it
let's you know Druckenmiller and all their friends let's let's try to get a pump on the yield so we
can just close out our short because they're getting hurt in Brazil they're getting hurt in
Korea they're getting hurt on their low quality names remember Druckenmiller lost three billion
dollars in the dot-com era on the backside
when multiples were falling with price. And when asked about it on video, he said he learned nothing
from losing the $3 billion because he knew not to buy falling multiples. What does he say when
you see rising multiples jump in? All that happens is liquidity is leaving by market.
The subsidy of companies goes away.
The ability for them to maintain their,
their earnings,
their guidance,
their revenue goes away.
And the whole ego chip.
Why isn't video going down?
Because Microsoft is their number one customer and SMCI.
Who's co-chair is arrested for fraud of two and a half billion of chips.
That's more than 25% of their business.
Yes, Dell got a little lift on it.
But what happened when Google announced
these data centers can be shrunk by a factor of six?
I don't know, is it six or 36?
Because of the speed up that they have.
It was always going to be the case
that anyone building a central park-sized building
for data crunching is going to be the case that anyone building a central park sized building for data
crunching is going to look back
in the future. People are going to say, what the hell
were you thinking?
We're not going to need that many chips.
That trillion dollars that he was talking about,
that micron story, those aren't real.
Companies
do not lower guidance till their
spenders tell
the vendor the party's over.
And Microsoft at a 52-week low and a monthly close
at a two and a half year,
they're just winning.
It's only a matter of time.
If Microsoft drops,
it was 550, that's 275, is 55%.
I mean 50%.
Microsoft takes up 350, 325, 299.
At what point do they say, no, Maas, we don't have the cash flow.
We're borrowing money.
Look at that.
They're all borrowing money.
Look at Google since they announced the century.
We called it Oracle 2.0 because Oracle announced that $18 billion of debt.
And I said at the time, you can't support that with your business model.
Credit default swap traders will come for you.
And they took them down by more than half.
Larry Ellison was the richest person in the world for about five minutes,
for one day or two days, whatever.
And now it's dropped more than a half.
And part of that is the buy of Warner Brothers.
But the money is leaving.
And if you think it's only about the war,
then what you need to do is calibrate that
when the war starts to decelerate
and oil stops accelerating,
if you don't see these things just accelerate and levitate and return, War starts to decelerate and oil stops accelerating.
If you don't see these things just accelerate and levitate and return,
it's people having lost so much money. Remember, the money supply went up by a factor of 10.
Now the money supply is only up by a factor of 6
because of all the roll-off, factor of 6, factor of 7.
Stocks are up a ton,
but the leadership, where the money
is, is going down.
And it's pulling down the SanDiscs
and the Microns. It's pulling down the
Palantirs, the Roblox, the
Appleaven.
It's basically
leverage. When
Druckenmiller goes from buying
the Fang of its day you know back in
2000 the dot-com stuff and it loses three billion how it would be the same thing as buying fang now
but he isn't even doing that he's going way out the risk curve way out mandated liquidity he he's
going to other countries brazil korea Japan. How's this yen long doing?
How's this Brazil long?
How is the Brazil right?
How is the Korean one?
The government has to intervene.
So people are losing money everywhere.
They're not bragging about it, but they're losing money.
You can measure it.
You can add up the value of all the asset classes,
equity, S&P, Russell 5000 or whatever,
commodities, oil, gold, silver.
And then you could just add that up
and see that we're losing a lot of money.
And the total value of all these things is declining.
And as I put up in the nest once,
my price time, the dollar deformation,
when you lose market value of all these assets, it's the trampoline lifting with a bowling ball made of ice melting down.
I mean, borrow an asset and sell it and short it and sterilize it, get it out of the dollar and send it to a garbage pile country whose currency has no shot of not melting down.
That's dollar deformation.
We went down for 23 years from February 25 to March 17, 1985, 08.
We've been up 18 years now, up 40%.
And you want to bet against that it's the same
thing as the calendar you don't warm up until after february 6th midwinter and then as you
go from six o'clock to to 7 50 7 30 as you're moving you're going more vertical and less horizontal you start to warm up the earth
that that's what's going on here we're losing we're losing equity we're going from
we're down 12 to 130 the x the measurement of equity in the system and the measurement
of volatility in the system is in deterioration so you can have all the fantasy that, oh, as soon as this war is over, not that it could ever end.
How about the terrorism we've been dealing with from Afghanistan or Brazil or Iraq?
How does it really end?
Do you think it's going to be like Venezuela?
It's not Venezuela.
Venezuela is not a death cult.
Venezuela is just a mafia.
And they decided they'd rather, you know, all the mafia wanted to do was get the business legal for
the kids. Michael Corleone, they bring me back in. Dulce Rodriguez was in Miami,
and Maduro was in a jail with an open toilet eating bland food.
was in a jail with an open toilet eating bland food. And Delce Rodriguez and her brother,
who runs the Senate, they passed a minerals law in one day, three weeks for an energy law.
They're going to get so rich, those two, and they're playing ball with America. Where's Cuba
going? So folks, if you just think you can DCA and get longer and that this is about the war,
folks, they've been easing policy since the Nasdaq started underperforming the S&P.
Just do a chart, NDX divided by S&P. It bottomed in September of 2002. The Nasdaq bottomed October 8th of 2002. 2002, not 22, excuse me.
They had another one after GFC.
It was November 21, 2008.
The Nasdaq starts outperforming from 1,015.
The S&P went to a fresh low, 666,
down 15% from its dot-com low on 3,69, March 6, 09. And we just straight up since then.
Money supply straight up since then. So if you think you're a genius, think again about maybe,
you know, you just had a lot of monetary help. And if you bought the NASDAQ 100 levered 2 to 1 on margin, 150 to 1.
You make all the money.
But if you think that this is just about the war and that Microsoft being so weak,
there's something else to think about.
But I have to just say, I appreciate what you did, Wabi,
but I can't allow clowns to come up
and lie about recordings I make.
My recording, I said, you seize a boat with oil in it, the oil is going to cover what is a record
short position, and it goes up. But it's only transitory because it was policy of the administration.
They wanted higher oil prices to get more energy,
more fracking.
We're going to get that Keystone XL pipeline.
There is an ocean of money going into Venezuela.
That's not going to be stuck
at a million barrels.
And remember,
all those barrels are going on the open market.
None of them are going to be subsidized into China.
So that's,
I'm just trying to get people
to look at price and be realistic
and not just believe in fairy dust.
Okay, back to you.
Let's get some thoughts from Tina.
Tina, what's up, man?
I don't have any thoughts right now.
I'm just listening.
I see.
How are you doing, man, outside of the market?
I'm good.
Thanks. Is this really doing, man, outside of the market? I'm good. Thanks.
Is this really you, man? You're usually so lively.
This is a rare occurrence.
I'm not bullish. I don't think David's wrong on...
Many of the things he says, I agree with.
Some of the things he says, I can't follow.
But I think he makes
some valid points, makes some other
points that I'm not so sure about.
Yet. Yet.
No, that's
quite possible.
We disagree on one thing.
I still,
I think if you're going to have
a big rally in the long end, I think you're going to have a recession with that.
I don't think it's going to happen without a recession.
I totally hear you.
And that's why I say yet, because you're going to see the flattening of the curve that went below the 200-day, and you know nothing good happens below the 200-day.
And now we're on the verge of death crosses for all of these curves. curve that went below the 200 day and you know nothing good happens below the 200 day and now
we're on the verge of death crosses for all of these curves because the curve is a volatility
it's a belief it's an expansion it's not a it's not a principle it's not an equity position it's
a belief that the curve should be steep but it flattened this week you saw what a disaster it was
and we finished the week well wait didn't didn't flatten
mostly because the short end sold off because oh do you think i care no no what happened to the
dollar because of it no the dollar's stronger this week and what's that going to do for actual
inflation expectations if you look at the 10-year minus the five-year that is mathematically what
they call the five-year five-year forward the. The fight, the five over the ten, that tells you what inflation expectations for five years is five years into the future.
And that melted down this week.
Because all of the chaos in oil right now will be resolved well before five years from now, right? Because market price will raise capital in places like America,
where you've got $3 LNG,
and Europe deciding to buy Russian oil when they're at war with Russia,
instead of buying it in the middle of America,
is a corruption, it's an insanity, it's a psychosis.
So I'm not telling you, bet your bags on a flattener. What I'm saying is watch.
Because we close below the 200-day moving average on virtually every curve.
And why is the curve steep? Because Powell over-eased and got rid of QT, put in QE,
is running off mortgages. He's done everything he can to steepen the curve.
And now the curve is laughing at him and it's going the other way.
So just watch it.
It's early, but just watch it.
But we do have a lot of damage on the curve this week.
All of them.
But at least you're saying you're watching instead of saying it can't happen.
That's important.
No, no, I'll be honest.
I don't know if we can have a situation.
You've got a because of infrastructure damage.
So how that plays out is not clear to me.
That's a price shift. That's not inflation.
I don't disagree with that.
Do you remember the 70s?
We went from 290 to 12.
Who's older, you or me?
I'm older.
How old are you?
I'm older than you.
That's all you need to know.
How old are you?
It doesn't matter.
So in the 70s, we went from 290 to 12 in 1,000 days.
And then we went from 12 to 40.
That's 1,400%.
We're up a Pishikaka double and america
has unlimited ability to extract oil it's not seven year you know law you know over you know
deep water drilling it's fracking it's it's a 90 plus percent probability and you get 75 percent
of the oil right away so you can sell on the forward curves and make the whole thing tied up
nice in a puddle. But a price shift is
not inflationary. It's only inflationary if it's a sustained move. Plus, do you think people in
software are going to go on strike for higher wages right now? I don't think so. And that's
what was in the 80s when you had 400 strikes of over a thousand people or more. We have 20 now.
had 400 strikes of over a thousand people or more. We have 20 now. So, you know, you need more time.
If you understood mortgages better, you'd see that mortgages are not really debt. They're more
equity and expectations are what drove rates up. And when they get more containment, more
flattening, it'll mechanically drive those mortgage rights right back down. And then Trump can buy not just $400 billion, $200 billion in agency.
It came out publicly, so I'm not going to hide it anymore.
I've been talking about it.
But they can sell a AAA tranche,
and they could lever up their mortgages on those balance sheets.
And they can buy over a trillion dollars worth of mortgages.
They could buy a trillion and a half.
They could buy two trillion.
So they're going to get these mortgage rates down.
And when they do, they'll take the rates back to where they're going to go.
And everyone who steeped the curve and adding more steepness
because the slowdown means we're going to cut more,
they're going to get burns.
Because the economy is much stronger than people think, much stronger than the data.
The labor market is much... We had 1,817,000 lower than last week. We're almost at a multi-multi-year
low in continuing claims. You just don't capture any of this data in the establishment
surveys. They're all the small businesses. How many people that got fired from big tech are
starting their own businesses from a handheld device with all this AI and support? It's
unbelievable. We're going to have the greatest period of job creation in human history.
And you've got these clowns talking about 30% unemployment. Are you kidding me?
It's going to be the period of the greatest change in opportunity because the government
isn't capable of realizing how they can try to screw tax and regulate people out of profits.
They're just not that good. So it's okay to say you'll watch whether rates go up or down. My view is they go much, much, much, much,
much, much lower, and you need time and patience. But we have very little volatility
in the total amplitude and range of the market for treasuries this year. David, frankly, I don't even know what the long end even does.
Can I tell you something?
Go ahead, man.
5% or 6% above yesterday? 7% above
yesterday, but 3%
above yesterday in total return?
Like a strip, treasury strip
is like 5%
away from a 52-week high?
you're accumulating at a 52-week high, wouldn't you?
I mean, do you fade 52-week highs?
No, you're too smart for that.
Yeah, yeah.
So, this is the same thing as Bitcoin on the way down.
Look at Bitcoin on the way down.
Look at the yields.
Okay?
It's the same exact freaking story.
So, what does it mean when the
long end trends up?
Oh, it's just
Druckenmiller and all his friends are pushing a very
thin piece of paper higher
because they have profits in it.
What was
the last big trade that he
did? He just said on
February 25 in a public recording
that he has short the bond, short the dollar,
long the yen, long, which I like the yen, actually.
He's long the Korean one, which is a joke,
and he's long Brazil.
And he's long Korea and Brazil equities.
It's going to get messed, messed up.
You see, when he was buying FANG back in the day,
the FANG of the, you know, Netscape and AOL, that stuff,
when he was doing that,
back in the, and he lost 3 billion,
he was buying the biggest stuff.
He's buying garbage piles right now.
He's buying incredibly overvalued things
with no liquidity.
You think Brazil's going to be fine
when the emerging markets blow up
from not having any jet fuel?
Do you know how many planes
are going to be ground?
Have you seen Boeing lately?
192?
Down from what, 260?
Planes are going to be grounded.
They're not going to be buying the new planes.
They won't have the money.
The rich Americans will.
The rest of the world, no moss.
No jet fuel for you.
Russia announced maybe they're not going to export gasoline or something, they just said.
But just Bitcoin had no range in 2, in three, excuse me, in 3Q of 25.
It had no range because Trump pushed it down.
And everyone has heard me say it, or many people have, look at my highlights, 429 AM on April 7th.
I covered a Bitcoin short at 7509195.
Because Bitcoin wasn't going down faster than the NASDAQ at that point.
So why would you stay short something more volatile that's not moving?
And then you had the September 18th peak of Bitcoin denominated
in its own volatility at a $700.
Dealers were not worried about it.
They were not repositioning. They were not delta hedging. They were not repositioning.
They were not delta hedging.
They were just naked selling the calls.
And then Bitcoin, just like gravity, came down to earth.
That data series came down to earth.
Bitcoin's going up.
The volatility's coming down.
People are selling puts like lunatics.
Bitcoin puts, because they got to get in.
And then two weeks later, you have two full weeks,
which is always a good signal for me, two closing weeks.
And then four days later, Bitcoin peaks,
and then three days later, it collapses.
We're experiencing the same dynamic with yields.
Yields had a big move.
They're consolidating.
Yet all these speculators try to drive up yields using derivatives, the move index, etc.
Just watch.
Just watch.
We had the lowest weekly close in Bitcoin for the cycle from the peak.
You got a lot of people who are talking about these things, which is not true because they've already run out of money.
A lot of them are completely blown out, and that's why your blood is breaking down.
But some people are using cash flow to buy it, and I've articulated publicly, please just wait for a couple of months of not going down before buying any more,
because that couple of months could be a decimal before buying any more, because that couple of months
could be a decimal down or could be two decimals down. You already gave up the 99 decimal,
the 100k. I don't see any way we don't not take out the 10k. So just save up all your buying power
for when it stops going down. Michael Saylor's coins, I cannot imagine that they don't have to come out. Michael Saylor
has a $75,000 average price, according to him. He was on CNBC bragging about how he made the biggest And so his purchases.
He's got a $75,694 average cost.
He's $10,000 out of the money.
And at what point do people say, you're not going to be able to service your your um your preferreds at a 11 and a half remember he
started the strc at nine and had to raise it every single month to be able to try to keep it at par
does he go down from 11.5 down to 11 and a quarter with rates are going up and Bitcoin going down? Or does he have to go from 11.5 to 11.75 or to 12?
He is paying 750 basis points more than Treasuries.
That's a non-performing level of yield.
That's the market telling him, oh, we won't buy it at 9, we won't buy it at 8.
So he wants to get to 800,000 coins, that's another 38,000 coins or so.
But his stock is going down faster than his purchases are going up.
And now he's down $10,000 a coin.
And he says, I can wait until 8.
No, the market's not going to wait.
The market's going to attack his equity he'll be deprived
and the lower the equity
I'm holding it
the lower the equity
Cozy please don't
please don't
the lower the equity
the higher the yield he's going to have to pay
which is recursive.
No, no, no.
So I beg
people to be traded.
I'm not
telling anyone.
She's very sick.
Can you wait there?
Posey, wait, wait, wait
okay
so I beg people
you literally have everyone
that's bought
in a very long time
who's made no money
and they're averaging down
but they're just losing money
on a mark to market basis
and how are these stable coins excuse me, how are these but they're just losing money on a mark-to-market basis.
And how are these stable coins,
excuse me, how are these treasury companies,
how are they not going to be sold out?
How are their boards of directors not going to make them sell?
When, as I suspect, that you take out the 59 and change that we got to on February 5th of this year,
when I said I can't stay short anymore leveraged
because volatility exploded 80% in six hours.
It's in my highlights.
So I got flat.
Got a little long psychologically when the first bomb dropped.
And then when the Clear Act passed, I lost my appetite.
Okay, where are we now? And Saylor just dumped a lot of money. And then when the Clear Act passed, I lost my appetite. Okay.
Where are we now?
And Saylor just dumped a lot of money.
He's now down $10,000.
He doesn't have MicroStrategy trading.
It's here.
It's here.
It's here.
It's here.
Is everything okay, David?
I'm guessing.
No, no. Someone's crying.
No, no.
There was another dog waiting.
I'm in the lobby.
If I go in the elevator, I'll lose you.
So I'm in the lobby, and another dog wanted to go upstairs with its owner,
and so they couldn't see where they were standing that the elevator was here.
Yeah.
So I'm just asking people to watch price.
Nobody has made money of any size buying Bitcoin since its peak.
Nobody.
And Saylor has now driven himself into a $10,000 per coin hole. And that's real money, right? And so he does have capital because of people's
former belief. But what happens when that takes out its low and goes into the 99s and then people start leaning against the
whole thing. There are people who are long a lot of IBIT, the Bitcoin ETF and the other ETFs,
and they can sell calls. And that's functionally selling half your stake.
And then the lady who runs the CME, she said, we will take Bitcoin and allow you to trade against it in Bitcoin.
You could sell calls against your Bitcoin at the CME. There's an ocean of volatility suppression
coming. He no longer has a volatility on selling, no longer has a moat around selling a volatility.
That's the same problem I have with JP Morgan and
Bank of America, which is below the COVID era peak. I never could understand why they would
sell their mortgages at a loss. I don't understand. They didn't. Bobby, is it me not hearing David or
is none of us hearing David? David, I think Tina's not able to hear you.
David, I think Tina's not able to hear you.
Can you hear me?
I can hear you, yeah.
Tina, I'm not sure what's going on.
Okay.
Anyway, so that is the bottom line on Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is experiencing loss of equity.
Crypto is experiencing loss of equity.
Gold and silver, add it all up
people who aren't leveraged since money got devalued we're doing great but if the dollar
is at an 11 month monthly closing high and it's continuing an 18-year trend line and 14 years of
that 18 years people are short the most short in 14 years since it was at a low.
The unwinding of this is not good for risk assets. And what it will do is it will cause more
re-leveraging because people have more leverage with less equity and then they'll have involuntary
selling. Then you'll get a volatility spike, you'll get a bounce, but at what point does this money start going into treasuries? You had a 4% Japanese 40-year almost, and that's very
good competition for a stock market that went from 7 up to 60 quickly. There's a lot of competition
for a treasury that could guarantee you more than 5% if you buy a treasury-stripped coupon.
Guaranteed, self-reinvested, no uncertainty in it.
Plus, if you get a slowdown in the economy of a meaningful nature, you can make a lot more than that.
more than that. But how do you expect long-term returns on tech stocks and S&P when it's two
and a quarter times the GDP? And the last peak was 139, which caused a 15% decline in the S&P
at an 83.6% decline in the NASDAQ. So people can choose not to look at the past and they can
pretend like it's a world of the Fed cutting or the Treasury trying to help and that causes liquidity to rise.
I don't know that you can overcome the collapse of the emerging markets with all of their dollar denominated debt, which is devaluing every day and it's not being recognized by the European banks.
So they're not going to have the capital to lend.
Their economies will slow down.
The European debt crisis that caused the yen to go to 75,
forcing the Japanese to flood the world with liquidity in 2013
and drive the yen from 75 to 161,
coincided with bitcoins going insane.
That's not happening anymore.
So the factors that contributed,
they're changing,
but those are only factors.
We can't add them all up,
but you can use your both eyes
and watch what's going on.
And you have the lowest weekly close in Bitcoin.
It's essentially down uh 1500 more 2000 more than a 50 decline
and it's and it's a 50 decline of its range from um august 2nd of uh of of 23
when they went to an easing policy or went to neutrality at the Fed.
So you lose 50%
and then you go back there
and then you go back there.
When you don't hold,
you lose a lot more money.
So I
just implore people to be less
optimistic
and more observationalist.
Oh, I see. I see.
You can take a break, David.
I heard you coughing.
I'm coughing a lung.
You know what I'm going to do?
I'm going to leave my phone
in my mailbox.
I'm going to bring the dog up in the elevator
and then I'll come back down so I'll have some other people talk while I'm gone.
Okay, yeah, no problem, man.
I don't want to... You know what? I'm going to go in the elevator.
I'll lose you. I'll have to try
to get...
get back in.
Yeah, you're good, man. You're okay.
Okay.
If anyone
in the audience wants to come up, feel free to do so.
I sent some speaker invites. Sullivan, if audience wants to come up feel free to do so I sent some
speaker invites Sullivan if you want to come up David Nikoski if you want to come
up Uncle GC if you want to come up Mitch you want to come up since you guys all
invites speak oh hey what's going on man this uh weekly close through the
indices man is um quite something man it's something man yeah i'm just uh i ran out of
fucking pen and paper writing all those notes down from from david that dude no i mean i have no idea where to even begin
well i guess man uh this is a pretty straightforward question man do you think
i'm just using technicals man um for spx i usually just take a gauge of about 12 to 20
and i compare that to last drawdown so last shot on we had last year we drew down about 19 from 61 all the way down to 4 800 um and if we were to repeat the same thing we would probably
bottom out between 56 to 5700 which is uh kind of where we were at um going into the election
kind of where we were at going into the election in 2024.
That's the kind of level that I'm looking at for SPX.
If this pattern continues,
it's basically the same thing as last Q1 at this point, man.
Except crypto isn't hemorrhaging.
That's the difference here.
You had a space the other day. I was on it,
I don't know, a few days ago. And we kind of talked about this, right? I mean,
part of this whole process, I think what is happening is, well, first of all, there's a lot
of narratives being floated on either side of this debate of whether the economy is slowing,
whether we're fine, whether we're not fine, jobs, whether those are fine, whether they're not fine,
interest rates, you know, all this kind of stuff. The war in Orion, obviously, a center,
a centerpiece of this, of this conversation, you know, what's going to happen there.
You know, we're, by the way, a month in now, guys. I was, I'm old enough to remember when
it was supposed to be like a week-long operation in,
out, and move on. We're now a month in. It seems like it's escalating, not de-escalating. So I
don't know, man. The dollar's strengthening. Long yields are rising. What was interesting today is food oil and precious metals all rallied big.
So the continuation of that trend, I think, is still intact.
And equities, especially the expensive ones.
This is a trade away from expensive and into cheap.
That's really what's going on here.
Forget about this large versus small growth versus value.
It's really more, in my mind, simpler than that, which is it's going from expensive to
cheap.
Now, there are expensive growth stocks and then there are cheap growth stocks.
They're expensive value stocks and cheap, you know, value stocks.
So it's not necessarily, in my mind, a growth to value right at the moment.
It's more of a cheap versus expensive.
And I was talking with my partner yesterday about this. We've reallocated, we've been making some small moves in the last
few months going into this. And we continue to do so. I think it's going to be, it has been,
and will continue to be a stock picker's market. I think, you know, these large, the question is, where's the money coming from to make
these asset allocation decisions, these swaps?
It's coming from the, you know, the mega cap growth names.
I mean, that's where all of this money has been residing for a very long time.
Trillions and trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars, you know.
So, you know, I mean, I remember a month ago,
people were saying Microsoft's cheap.
Well, Microsoft was cheap a month ago.
It's even cheaper today, you know.
So, I mean, a month ago when, you know,
when Microsoft was what, I think in the 450s,
you know, something like that, 470s,
here we are, you know, $100 less than that. And it's, you know, it's if you liked it then,
you should love it now. And yet, you know, people still sell it. You know, Microsoft had a really
bad week this week. Now, there's some idiosyncratic things that are going on here with some of these
names, Meta, you know, and some others. But the reality is, I think, you know, people sell what
they can. And what
they can sell is the stuff that's most liquid. And that's the stuff that's had the most money
in it for years now. So I think you're going to see a continuation of that. I wouldn't be
shorting names, by the way. I think, you know, could we have a, I talked about this the other
day, could we have a pretty significant rebound? Absolutely. It could happen any time. I talked about this the other day. Can we have a pretty significant rebound? Absolutely. It could happen any time.
I talked to a friend this afternoon
who's not in the markets necessarily.
He's not a market practitioner.
He's just an observer.
But he said something that I agree with.
And we've been talking about this for a long time,
which is, you know,
Trump can come out Sunday night,
Sunday afternoon and say something positive
and the futures will blast higher and then we'll have
a gap open on a Monday. And if you're short going into the weekend, you know, that's probably not
something that you should be doing. You know, this is a narrative driven market. It could go
one way or the other very, very quickly. You know, so I would just be careful.
Bitcoin, I mean, Bitcoin's plumbing new lows here. it was something we talked about I I said this the
other day uh if the market were to have a rebound equities you know large cap growth stocks Bitcoin
would would follow I said I I literally I I think I said when did you have your last space here Wabi
that I was in like three days ago or something yeah Wednesday I think I yeah I think I said
yeah I think I said yeah I think I said
if the market sells off Bitcoin's gonna follow and that's exactly what's happened you know the
market's selling off there's no we haven't found a an equilibrium here yet people are still selling
these stocks and of course Bitcoin's plumbing you know, what is it? 65,000 today or something I saw.
So again, it's day by day by day. It's hard to know exactly how this is all going to
settle out. You know, it's anybody's guess. But having said that, I think there's a lot
of opportunity in certain sectors. I mean, I was looking at our, as we close the day today,
you know, we had about
a dozen names that were in the green today, believe it or not. A dozen names green. Think
about it. Now, you probably know and surmise which sectors those names were in. They were
in energy, they were in precious metals, and they were in consumer staples and select biotech. So, you know, there are opportunities.
It's just there, you know,
it's just most people are, you know,
in the wrong places.
They're still highly concentrated
in the stuff that's been working for a long time.
And the stuff that hasn't been working
is now starting to see some love.
So, you know, it's anybody's guess how we go.
I don't know.
I mean, what do you guys think?
You know, I heard some opinions this afternoon
as I was listening, hopping in and out of spaces.
There's some opinions as to what can happen
over the next few days.
And, you know, I think people are still pretty optimistic
about this situation, this war in Iran, about how quickly that can resolve itself.
And I'm not as optimistic as those people, to be honest.
I think I'm more on the pessimistic side because I think this is going to be a protracted, long-term quagmire.
Like I said a month ago when it started,
I said this is going to be pretty messy.
War is not, you know, every war is messy,
but particularly these types of wars.
And I don't know how many troops are being sent there.
Every time I read an outline,
there's another thousands of troops that are being deployed.
So I'm not sure what the exact count is now, but it's probably safe to say that there's tens of thousands of
troops on the ready. So for those of you that think it's going to wrap up here in the next few days,
which is what the consensus was three weeks ago, to me me it seems like it's escalating not de-escalating
but I you know anyway that's that's my thought Bobby what about you guys in the crypto space
what's the what's the what's the uh what's the uh what's the consensus right now um
Yeah, I don't think we trade below 5,700. I don't. So, I don't know, man. It's like some
operation shock and all. That's what I think. Why 5,700, Wabi? What's specific about 57,000
that you think is kind of a demarcation? So, that's where we were at going into the election it's also the classic
15 plus percent drawdown I think it's actually closer to 18 percent actually um there's that
you mean from from which point 7 000 from 7 000 all the way to 50 no no I'm talking Bitcoin what
are you talking about oh 55 to 58 something like
that okay that's what i'm talking about yeah i'm s&p yeah anyway yeah so so you said 5700 on the
s&p is that what you were talking about yeah yeah yeah oh god yeah okay i thought you meant the
bitcoin but i asked you about bitcoin oh my bad no i i don't think we trade lower than like 55 to 58.
But if SPX, geez, if SPX, gosh, if we go to like 5200, then we probably have a day where like we gap down by 15,000 or something like that on BTC.
And then it just like V reverses that's that's what i think
so what's in your mind what's keeping a floor at that price for btc um i would say like minor
capitulation that that's that's that's something that we'll probably see more of um a lot of selling
pressure from ibid also. That's basically it.
Because right now, like, there's no new net buyers for BTC as far as whales outside of Sailor.
And his story, I think, is done.
I said this last year.
I think his story is absolutely cooked.
his story is absolutely cooked uh i think bitcoin needs a new narrative um because now it's just a
I think Bitcoin needs a new narrative.
bunch of older it's just a bunch of older people who can't trade um who don't know anything about
markets and all they say is stack sats and they think that like it's gonna outperform everything
moving forward when in reality like that's that's anything but the truth like this
thing is now going to trade like a commodity and has been for a while and you look at the mag 7
there are some names outperform btc like meta from the bottom and there are a lot of names
let me let me give you let me give you a little bit of hope here yeah a little bit of hope and
a little bit of pain the hope hope is, you're absolutely right,
Bitcoin needs a new narrative. And you know what? It always comes up with a new narrative. There's
always a new narrative around Bitcoin since day one. So that's coming. We don't know what that is,
but it's coming. Whether it's going to be positive for the price, anybody's guess. The pain that's
coming also, so I said I'll give you a positive. That's a
positive. There is a new narrative coming. The pain is we are now lower today than when we were
when Trump took office. We had a big bump up in the price of Bitcoin when he got reelected
on the back of all these promises of deregulation, crypto, the Bitcoin strategic reserve,
all of these things. So let me put this question to you. This is the question I always ask.
This is a question I have never gotten an answer to.
And I don't think there is really a good answer.
The question is this.
What, if we look today and we look back to a year and a half ago, the election,
all the promises that were made, all the ETFs that have been launched,
all of the BTC treasury companies that have come to fruition over the last year and a half,
all of the narratives around Bitcoin, all the positivity, all of this stuff, the hope and all
this kind of stuff. And yet, we are a year and a half after the election and it's basically where
we started. The question is, if we have gotten all those good things,
all of the positive narratives, all the benefits,
all the great stuff, if that's all behind us now,
and there is a new narrative on the horizon,
how much better does that narrative have to be
in order to get the price higher?
You follow me?
Because all of this stuff,
Bitcoin's literally, what is it
today? 65, 66? That's where we were prior to him getting elected, right? So we had all of these
things to look forward to. They have all happened, by the way. All of them happened, except for the
strategic Bitcoin reserve, right? That never happened. The deregulation thing, that's kind of,
you know, happening slowly, but I'm not sure it's going to be really beneficial to Bitcoin necessarily or crypto at large. So my
question is like, what is it going to take? Because literally we've thrown in the kitchen sink on all
the positive things that can happen. And yet the price is actually down. So it went up and then it
just crashed. And so now we're sitting here and thinking, okay, what do we need to have happen
to get that price back up
if we had all of these positives
and yet we're back to square one?
So I'm not going to regurgitate the same trash
that a lot of other people say,
which is all just late for zerping QE.
But the strategic Bitcoin reserve would be one.
And also some form of lockdown, in my opinion.
Lockdown, what do you mean?
Something a bit bigger than COVID.
Oh, shit.
Yeah, I think.
If you think about it, man,
like I'm just going to put on a tinfoil hat here.
If that happens right,
and there's like some global lockdown,
then I think people would um
kind of just look towards the commodity sector um instead of their their own version of uh the
s p 500 they just buy bitcoin in my opinion so hold on a second so wabi if i'm hearing you
correctly we need a we need a we need a closure, a lockdown. Something extreme, yeah.
Something extreme.
Something extreme as extreme or more extreme than COVID to get the juices flowing?
Yeah.
If you look at the election, that was basically a more extreme version of COVID as far as virality, right?
Like you had two extreme sides.
All of Kamala wins, like America's going to get invaded and all this stuff.
I mean, that was the narrative, right?
Because we had open border policies that was honestly insane, really.
And if you look at her, I mean, she can't really form a proper sentence without repeating herself or talking a bunch of jargon.
And then with Trump, I mean, you already know Trump
derangement syndrome and all this stuff. So there was two extreme sides, right? And it was like,
the fate of the world depends on this election, right? And I mean, that wasn't as strong as COVID,
but I mean, it was a huge thing globally, economically, right? Like Kamala wins worldwide depression, Trump wins prosperity and all that stuff.
But peace, right?
Wasn't he just vying for a Nobel Peace Prize just a few months ago?
Something like that.
Something like that.
Yeah.
So if you take a look at it, anytime there's a cycle for Bitcoin, there's always some extreme narrative, right, globally.
There's always some sort of extreme thing, right?
Like, I think in 2013, there was a bank run on some country, man.
I forgot what it was.
Zimbabwe?
No, no, no.
No, I forget it, man.
Was it a Latin American country?
No, no, no. It was like some, gosh, it escapes me, man. Was it a Latin American country? No, no, no.
It was like some, gosh, it escapes me, man.
But there was some sort of like-
There's been a lot of bank runs over the years.
I'm not sure.
I think it happened around 2013, 20, Cyprus, Cyprus.
That's the one, Cyprus.
Cyprus, okay, yeah.
Around that time and-
So that was right after the, yeah,
that was when the pigs were falling apart
that was Portugal Spain Italy yeah and then we ran to like 1300 per coin um but anyways man
that's that's something that I've noticed um but I don't think we're going to go to like 300,000. Well, let me ask you.
So the thing that's really interesting is like Bitcoin is not being discovered.
It has been discovered.
Everybody knows about it.
I mean, they literally talked about it on Bloomberg today.
I mean, Bitcoin is not like undiscovered, right?
So that's really important.
That's a really important thing to think about.
You know, Bitcoin is a known quantity, okay?
It's, everybody knows about it, literally.
Like my in-laws know about it, and they're in their 80s, okay?
Everybody knows about Bitcoin.
Now, they may not understand Bitcoin.
They may not know about, you know, the intricacies of Bitcoin,
but they understand it's like a digital thing, you know?
And they know about it.
They've heard about it.
It's on Fox Business is reporting on it regularly.
You know, CNBC, Bloomberg, mainstream media.
Okay.
So it's pretty, everybody knows about it.
We've gotten all of these ETFs.
I mean, there's dozens and dozens of ETFs.
There's dozens and dozens of treasury companies, including strategy.
And yet the price is going down, not going up.
So then there's something off, right?
Now, somebody, you know, there are people that think that there are whales that have
been selling into this strength this year.
That could probably be a part of that.
You know, there's some people that have, you know, slowly been releasing Bitcoin.
So, you know, that could put pressure on the price. But I don't think it's that. I think that's the
that's a small part of it. I think the large the big part of it is it's just extremely,
you know, it's had a massive, massive run. It's an extremely large asset. And the price is just,
you know, it's expensive. And people buy things that they perceive to be cheap.
And this is as stupid as this may sound to you.
It's the reality.
This is why companies split stocks, okay?
I agree with you, man.
When a company stock is $1,200 a share,
you can only buy one share because, you know,
let's just say you don't have a lot of resources.
You're just the guy at the beginning.
You want to buy a stock or, you know,
Berkshire Hathaway, for instance.
This is why they introduced B shares, you know, the baby shares.
And so companies regularly split their stocks to make it more readily accessible to retail investors.
It doesn't do anything to the value of the company, right?
It just allows for more shares to be issued to allow for people to think that they're getting a bargain, right?
Cheaper.
It's a lower share price.
The fundamentals of the business have not changed.
So I think with Bitcoin, that's really, I think, when people look at it and go, oh, my God, $66,000 or $120,000 for one of these things.
What does it do for me? Then the question is, what does it do for me?
Right? So that's a natural thing does it do for me, right?
So that's a natural thing to do, to ask, right?
If I buy something for $66,000,
I put $66,000 into this Bitcoin,
what do I get?
What is it gonna give me, right?
So that's a natural thing for people to ask.
And so I think it's psychological.
I think it's expensive.
People have seen it
go up a lot and they've seen it go down a lot. So people, you know, I think from a perspective of
like, you know, risk and psychology, like, do I want to get into something like this? What if it
goes to 50? You know, what if I lose $16,000? You know, on this,
could it go to 80? Sure. But it could also go to 50. I mean, that's, so I think, I think that's
really the, the problem for Bitcoin is many different things. But I think largely, it's an
image problem. It's expensive, number one. Everybody's involved in it. No one seems to
know why. Everybody's got a different angle as to why they get involved with bitcoin and the supply issue i think is also it's also concerning and i think i think a lot of people who got in like 10
plus years ago they're all going to chat fly i'm sorry man um and i actually think palance here
completely destroys btc and outperform into the upside when we go back into a higher time frame
uptrend um well wabi listen
gold gold and silver have outperformed gold over the last year in fact if you go back i think gold
and silver have handedly outperformed since the election so you have to ask yourself the question
like if you're a bitcoiner and that's all you are because there's a lot of guys man o'hare that term
needs to be rebranded bitco, that's like a stooge.
It's like I'm a stooge for Michael Saylor.
Let me put on my overall... The Bitcoin community is going to have to do that.
They're going to have to do that.
But the point is, you know, if that's all you own, right?
And you're looking around and you're like, holy cow, these idiots over here in precious metals, silver and gold.
Man, they've been making a fortune.
Even with the drop recent, the recent drop since January, silver and gold are up on the year right now.
Okay?
Now, if you bought the top, you're probably hurting a little bit.
But this is why you don't chase parabolic moves.
Okay?
But the point is that since the election, what does outperform Bitcoin?
Almost everything, including gold and silver.
So the question is, why is that that and how does that turn around i i think it's supply man and um as far
as community it's a bit odd because the x the community here on x is dispersed a lot a lot of
them don't really like each other um and then YouTube is a completely different
monster like I find YouTube a bit more enthusiastic when it comes to communities um reddit is a bit
more like like black pills and stuff when it comes to crypto and all that stuff Bobby let
me ask you you said you say supply okay so supply what do you mean by supply so supply meaning so if you look at
sailor right he owns like over three percent or something like that um and there are a lot of
people who got into crypto off of the original thesis like they don't like trad fi they don't want try to get involved and there are many posts on 4chan
and on reddit and um some other obscure forums that when trad fi gets in they're gonna dump on
their head you know and that's a classic story man that is a well honestly if trad fi gets in
they're gonna dump on their head but that means that that you're you're assuming that trad fi
owns a lot of Bitcoin.
They do.
They do at this point.
Yeah, they do.
So here's the thing.
So you're saying,
and this is an interesting concept
because, and I've heard this a lot
in a lot of rooms over the last few months.
And O'Hare, if you want to be even like
more doomerish about it,
just look at the inflation adjusted
all-time high for BTC in April of 2021.
Because if you compare the highs of April 21 and November of 21,
it's a marginal high.
So the real golden peak of froth and retail buying in
and all that stuff and mass, your common man,
that peaked out like two cycles ago.
So we're talking half a decade of basically no growth.
And I'm not sure if you follow this guy.
His name is Pentoshi.
And back in 2021, when the market was peaking out in frost during that time, he was mentioning how crypto has a large chance of going through a lost decade, a stagflationary period.
And we are basically halfway done through a lost decade. East did not
make an inflation-adjusted all-time high. I think BNB made a marginal all-time high by like a small
hair or maybe a double top, actually. Solana did not hit an all-time high inflation-adjusted.
an all-time high inflation adjusted um nothing did at all like the only thing that actually
brought in some sort of value growth to the space was hyper liquid and without hyper liquid this
space is honestly dead outside of bitcoin i will say that right now it is dead it is non-investable
it's just attention-driven mimetics um and if you look at the peaks of a lot of these altcoins that were trending,
they all made lower highs against some of the other assets from last cycle, like AVAX.
AVAX, I think people forget, AVAX went to like 40-bill market cap.
Luna went to like 50.
SHIB went to like 40 bill market cap. Luna went to like 50. Shib went to like 40. Doge went to like 90 billion
or something crazy like that, right? Ada went to well over 100 billion. And all we got was just
Hyperliquid and Pepe. And everything else was just a lower high against all of that. It was just
liquidity dispersion with no narrative. There was no daquan there was no innovation guy this
cycle it was just michael saylor hopped on drugs calling people poor and i'm sorry to say but i
just don't really think you're going to be attracting a lot of new capital i want to go
back with that guy i want to go back to this idea it's just weird yeah i agree with i agree with you
it is very weird but you know this idea it's the same it's the same conversation over and over and over again anytime he talks so i want to i want to go
back to this idea of supply because you know for every buyer there's a seller in everything right
if you think about assets anything whether it's a house a stock a bond crypto uh bitcoin you know
it does these things have to have a holder, right? Somebody's holding something at all times.
Bitcoin's held by somebody at all times.
A stock is held by somebody at all times.
Somebody sells it, somebody buys it, right?
So somebody's always holding it.
So the question is, on the topic of supply with Bitcoin,
if there is supply coming to market from, you know,
certain areas like, for example,
some large holders, some whales, you know, some early adopters, if there is supply coming to
market, you know, that's one side of the equation. The other side of the equation is there's been a
lot of supply on the buy side, right? I mean, in the last couple of years. I mean, if you just
think about from the perspective of guys like Saylor, who've been buying Bitcoin religiously, you know,
all the way along to their detriment. And then all of the treasury companies have been buying
Bitcoin, all of the, you know, ETFs that have been introduced that are allowing regular mom and pops to buy Bitcoin.
I mean, even if the supply is coming in on the sell side, there's supply coming in on the buy
side. So to me, it would seem like there would be more stability in the price. And yet, the price
of Bitcoin, again, since Trump got elected, hasn't done anything.
It's literally done nothing.
It went way up and then went way down.
No sustainability in the price.
So calling it a, you know, a digital gold or safe haven, the ultimate, you know, value, store value.
I mean, none of that has come to fruition.
Now, over the long term, it has, right?
I mean, if you were a 2018 adopter, 2017 adopter,
that's a different story, right?
You've made extremely, you know, you've done well.
But I'm talking about just in the last, you know,
year and a half, because that's really the important thing,
because that was really the last year and a half.
And in fact, I would say even going through COVID, right?
I mean, a lot of things have changed.
I would say the last two years, man,
since IBIT went wrong.
Yeah, two years.
Yeah, yeah.
So you're talking, right?
Yeah, you're talking the pre-election run,
the promises that the Trump administration made
on deregulation of crypto,
on the adoption
of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve for the US all of these things none of that stuff actually happened
uh which you know it's not surprising I didn't think political politician stuff man exactly and
I would say like my enthusiasm for Trump died off uh when world liberty five was buying all coins last february and bad look that was a
bad look like the biggest the biggest grift you i have ever ever witnessed i agree and so i just
kind of think of him as like uh as an actor you know when he went when markets when markets um
experiences kind of price action he's probably gonna taco even if it's just for
like a little relief bounce or whatever but no like i mean at this point indices are probably
like in meltdown mode all the way down to like 6157 are kind of what i'm eyeing and then after
that then just buy hyperliquid in my opinion um so yeah i mean people are going on to hyper liquid right now
uh to buy oil and precious metals and all that stuff so i mean if you like innovation and all
that stuff and you're bullish on bitcoin and you're probably bullish on alts because a lot
of people are going to end up buying majors because they're making money on hyper liquid
they're going to rotate back into bitcoin so i think people should be rooting for hyper liquid if you actually want new net buyers
if you want old buyers to come back in um and i'm talking money now man like narratives are fine and
dandy right talking about war and where where like liquidity is going to come from but as far as
looking at like what's happening right now a few people want to talk about that because they're so married to their biases it makes sense if you make money on
a platform right you're like shit i'm trying out this hyper liquid stuff i longed oil made a couple
of bands where can i rotate you'll probably buy into majors like shit i'm in crypto right now
made a few easy bands might as well stay in the ecosystem, right?
Get yourself some BTC, ETH, or SOL.
And you're a happy camper, man.
Instead of this weird narrative how Larry Finkelstein is going to go on CNBC and talking about the tokenization of things when it's already happening, it's happening in front of your face.
tokenization of things when it's already happening it's happening in front of your face
i think people just make it a weird branding issue saying that you can't trade anything outside of
btc because it's hard money whatever that means but there's always a new narrative for what hard
money is right and they've never read that book from andreas antonopoulos which i think if you
really want to talk about og and good representative of the space he's probably the greatest one him and roger ver right um he has this book called the internet he has this book called the internet of
money right it's the internet of money by andreas antinopoulos and that shit dude that that that
pilled me on eth more than anything dude it pilled me on eth and when you think of like what retail
likes right they like shit they can use.
They like apps, right?
And Hyperliquid, it's a platform with a token.
Solana is a dApp, essentially.
It's a token that derives, that benefits off of speculative attention, right?
Mimetics, it is the token for mimetics.
But if you want to talk about a token that benefits off of uncertainty
and where people can park their money when TradFi markets are closed,
you're going to go to fucking Hyperliquid, man.
And at this point, it's no longer speculative.
I think it's definitive.
But with these platforms, you never know, right?
Even in TradFi, Warren Buffett says the market doesn't have to open tomorrow.
And most people, they always get uncomfy with drawdown.
Um, and maybe, maybe I'm an exception because I went through Luna.
Um, I think if you've been longer, if you've been in crypto longer than like five years, you've probably experienced multiple crazy vol events that make you ask if this space is even worth participating in.
I have to tell you something. Here's the thing. And for younger guys that have been through, you know, you say you've been through these multiple cycles and a lot of the younger guys, you know, you're all hopeful that we're going to get this other renewed cycle and a big boom.
And here's the thing. I've always said this and I'll continue to say it. I think
in my mind, crypto, specifically Bitcoin, the granddaddy, it's just, it's the purest
manifestation of risk taking. It doesn't have a use case. I mean, people can argue with me all
day long and I have had long arguments with people.
Most of them, they don't even transact.
They don't.
So there are use cases.
Yeah, every one of these points, by the way,
has somewhat of a use case, right?
Somebody can come up with a use case for any of them.
My point is largely that it's just,
it's more or less risk on, risk off.
So the question is, if you believe
that we're gonna have a continuation of the the trend of this bull trend in equities, let me back up, in asset prices, whether it's equities or real estate, crypto, whatever, everything, all assets.
If we're having a resumption of that trend over the next five years, I think crypto and Bitcoin will do quite well.
Crypto and Bitcoin will do quite well.
However, if you believe, like I do,
that I think we're largely at the tail end of that cycle,
that the new cycle that's beginning now,
we're in the midst of it,
is going to be much, much, much different,
then I think there's going to be, you know,
there's going to be some, you know,
some coming to Jesus moments with the cryptos,
with the crypto community,
because I think a lot of people,
they haven't been through multiple cycles. You know, they just haven't. Now, when I say cycle, I mean,
like a market cycle, like the economic cycle. For the last 16 years, we've had a pretty much
straight up run. QE1, 2 and 3, a lot of, you know, a lot of pumping of our markets by all
the administrations. I mean, starting with Obama when he took over after GFC, actually starting with Bush during the GFC where they put in three quarters of a trillion dollars
to bail everybody out. Then the baton was handed to Obama and then so forth. So 16 years of unfettered
market run on the back of massive monetary stimulus. Those days, I think, are largely behind us. We have a new,
we have a new, how do I say this? A new regime that's starting to develop here,
market regime. And I think it's going to be much different than it has been the last 15 years.
Let's put it that way. So I don't know if that's going to be very constructive lobby for a lot of cryptos. I think for a lot of cryptos, it's going to be very bad. And for
select cryptos, Bitcoin mainly and some others, it might be okay. But there's going to be a lot
of volatility. And I think the returns that people were thinking just a year and a half ago,
I mean, I was in spaces after the election of Trump where people were saying,
oh, this is going to 250, 300, easy.
There were calls for 450, 500 Bitcoin right now, today.
And not only did we not ever get there,
you know, we're back to where we started.
So I think that's a real clear indication
as to the direction that kind of the overall asset,
you know, market is going,
which is, you know, less risk, more, you know,
how do I say this?
Not less, people are looking for things with less risk
and those things typically will be found in things other than crypto and certain stocks.
Let's put it that way. So it's not a linear thing. It happens over time. But this change
has been happening for the better part of a year now. So like I said, I think people need to be
really, really careful. Now, are there new things that can come up?
Like some of the things you've talked about in crypto, Hyperliquid or some of these others?
Sure, you know, anything's possible.
But there's going to have to be a definitive use case.
It's not just going to be, hey, number go up.
It's going to pump, you know, because we say it's going to pump.
It's happening right now.
Price discovery on oil happened on hyperliquid.
Same thing with precious metals.
And it's...
Well, let me just say this.
It's a platform that...
I hear this all the time, Wabi.
I hear this statement people make in crypto.
Price discovery.
It's undergoing price discovery.
Let me just button this down real good.
Once and for all.
Well, it made new highs.
Once and for all.
Price discovery happens every day. there's no such thing as
oh we're in price discovery now no no price discovery is every day every day a market is
open and in the case of bitcoin or crypto it's 24 7 365 their price discovery is happening right
now okay there is no day that we wake up and go oh now we're undergoing price discovery oil didn't
just go you know through prices oil is undergoing price discovery. Oil didn't just go through prices. Oil is undergoing price discovery every day.
Commodity prices fluctuate.
They go up and down based on what's happening around us.
So do stock prices.
So do interest rates.
So all of this stuff is undergoing price discovery all the time.
There is no like magic price discovery day.
You know, it's a constant thing.
It's always around us.
There are always people bidding and there are always people selling.
There's always a bid and ask.
And so this idea,
I hear this all the time in these crypto spaces.
We're undergoing price discovery now.
We're finally here, price discovery.
I don't even know what that means.
I think it's kind of a silly concept.
It's price discovery is always happening, right?
Now with stocks, it doesn't happen necessarily at night, right?
Because stock market's closed,
but it certainly happens in futures.
It happens at the bell on the open, right?
Price discovery.
But it happens every day, all day, right?
So it's an ongoing thing.
It's not like, again, it's not like, you know, tomorrow or Monday, we're going to have price discovery in something, you know, like oil or something like that.
You know what I'm saying? Does that make any sense? I don't know. Maybe not.
Hey, hey, O'Hare, I appreciate the way you framed sort of if you view it this way, then this is this is sort of the outcome you should follow. If not, this is the other outcome. But what I don't understand is what is it that makes you think that the regime of easy money, easy liquidity is coming
to an end? Because that's just not what we've seen. Why would easy money stop now? What is it
that would cause that? Oh, did he drop down?
Sorry.
Oh, there he is. I couldn't hear.
I couldn't hear.
I left and came back.
I couldn't hear.
Oh, that's all right.
Sorry.
Sorry.
I'm just wondering,
what is it that would make
the regime of easy money,
easy liquidity stop?
I don't see that stopping.
I'm just interested to know
why you would think
that that regime is changing.
And sorry I'm on the road if I'm going in and out.
Yeah, that's a good question.
Look, we've been on this for the last 100 years, plus 120 years, whatever it's been now.
So what can stop this train?
What can stop the free-F printing, the stimulus?
You know, I think just economics, you know,
it's never going to end.
It's not like it's going to come to a stop necessarily.
I mean, if it does, you know, look out below.
I mean, we have big problems,
but it can certainly slow.
And I think it is slowing now.
And I think, you know,
you have to have a balance between the ability,
you know, the economy has to grow.
So you need, you know,
the economy, the way we have it,
cannot grow without money,
without more money, right?
We have an economy that's,
it's a very robust economy.
The US is a really interesting place
because we have a lot of moving parts and you need
capital to make an economy function.
And capital is formed in many different ways, but you need the basic building block of capital
is money, right?
Along with that is debt, because we have a debt-based monetary system.
And so could we continue to print our way to prosperity?
Could we continue to just do what we've done?
And a great example of this is the last 16 years, right?
It was a really interesting experiment.
Now, here we are.
We have $40 trillion of government debt.
We have, what, a $35, $37 trillion economy.
We have what, a 35, $37 trillion economy.
And in the last year or two,
it's largely been driven by just one sector, right?
Technology, and even one subsector of that space,
which is AI.
And so, while everything else
is kind of just been petering along.
So the question is what can stop it? I think what can stop it is just,
you know, economics. It's just, we have a tremendous amount of debt that we're going to
have to, the debt never gets paid. It's just, you know, we're going to have to roll it. The
question is, who is going to, who's going to help us do that? You know, I guess the Fed, you know,
the US government, we, you know, as a country, we can start monetizing our debt,
but that's not good either.
So I think when I say it's gonna stop or slow,
it's economics that's gonna dictate that.
And we've kind of come, we're pushing on a string here.
We've kind of, in my mind, come to kind of somewhat of an end,
if you will, at least temporarily anyway.
So it's the debt in your mind. So how does that how does the debt now compare to the GDP? What's
the debt to GDP ratio? How's that changed? Hasn't our GDP gone way up as we've increased debt, though?
Well, that's it's still worse than the debt's still higher than the GDP. So obviously,
the debt's gone up more, right?
Yeah, I'm just saying, I mean, I'm just trying to figure out,
I guess I still don't really understand why.
So what I understood what O'Hare said,
but why would we stop easy money?
Then the bottom falls out.
That's why I guess I just don't really understand. Why would we stop it now?
I just had a call.
But anyway, I think what I caught there was like, what can stop it? I mean,
a lot of things can stop it. I mean, look, economics is kind of a funny business. You
know, it's not a precise economics is not a precise science. It's not like mathematics,
you know. So there's a lot of social aspects in economics. You know, there's people that are,
you know, wanting to work. There are people that can't work. There are people that want to form a business. There are people that
want to work for a business. There, you know, there are people that can borrow money. There
are people that can't borrow money for various reasons. So there's a lot of things. It's a
social science. And so it's really, this is one of the reasons why there's, you know,
at times throughout history where there's tremendous volatility because there's a tug of war between different factions that are participating in this economic system.
And I think we're at a point now where you have a tremendous amount.
This economy is very top heavy.
It's very lopsided.
The rewards have gone to just fewer and fewer and fewer people over the last several decades.
And really since the GFC in earnest,
it's been really, really top heavy.
And so that can only go on for so long
before things start to break down.
The very fabric of our system starts to break down.
And so I think, again, it's a very complex thing. There are a lot
of things going on here. But you said, you know, I think you asked like GDP, is it GDP? Yeah,
if we have a slowdown in the US economic activity, it's gonna be really hard to print more money.
You know, you know, I mean, we could keep printing money, but you know, that money has to be
productive, you know, and, you know, the more money you print, if you don't get that same enough, that same amount of productivity,
then it's like pushing on a string. So, you know, I kind of worry that we're kind of at that point
now, you know, where, you know, and I, by the way, if you look at the, you know, G, we've never been
here, really. I mean, we're at i think 130 percent
of uh gdp in terms of debt to gdp oh here i just sorry to interrupt i just wanted to say you could
compare you compared this to kind of like the uk when they were the world power they were kind of
early you know 1900s it was kind of that same level you know there's a lot of comparisons you
can make to uk i mean the uk you know, Great Britain was a world power,
was the world power at the late turn of the last century,
you know, 130 years ago.
We didn't become a superpower till, you know, after World War II.
And so, you know, it was Great Britain,
but Great Britain did exactly what we're kind of doing.
They were on the same trajectory as we are now.
And so the question is, and it's a valid point,
I mean, that's a great comparison is Great Britain, because that was the last great superpower that basically printed their
way into, you know, into what they are now, which is basically, you know, you know, they have two
industries, I think, financial, the finance industry, banking and tourism. They used to be a superpower in terms of, you know, industrial might,
you know, building things.
Oh, Eric, you want to know what America has that the UK doesn't?
We have football, Walmart.
Well, they have football.
They just have a different kind of football.
Do you know what they have that we don't have?
That's like training wheels football man
but america dude america america has professional wrestling vince mcmahon we have uh as i said home
depot we have nascar does the uk have nascar i think not do they have costco nope they don't mexico even has
dude if if if we did not have costco dude we would be in a financial depression but even look even even costco i think but no oh here i'm being for real like i think people
think that this is like a joke what i'm saying but like if you think about number one the jobs
that they create the the money that they funnel throughout the economy, it's a real thing.
The U.K. does not have Walmart, NASCAR, Home Depot, things that bring in a lot of money to this country.
You understand, man, like NASCAR brings in money to America on such a global scale.
It's greater than soccer.
But, Wabi, I'm sorry to interrupt you, but there's 29 Costco stores in the U.K., Wabi.
29 Costco stores in the U.K.
Yeah, but it's American.
It's American.
Oh, okay.
I get it.
Okay, fair.
Yes.
Yeah.
I'm not kidding.
This is no joke. But anyways, I think people forget that America
is the business capital of the world. The UK was never the business capital of the world.
You see where the biggest companies in the entire world are? Where their CEOs come,
they come to America. They make deals in Americaica that's the thing america is not a country
it is a business the uk is a country not a business right and i mean if people think ah
dude america's gonna go under a recession i think i i i think you believe that it reminds me it reminds me of the quote i think it was jay-z i'm not a businessman
i'm a business man yes man that's exactly it gordon gecko that's the realest shit i've heard
you say oh that's hilarious oh here's oh here man. You know, like, I don't understand why, like, I call these people that just live on Twitter spaces 24 seven, just yapping about BTC and whatever 21 million coins. Let's let's go ahead and see what the next like transaction block says. Like they give a hair a hard time.
because like they they give o'hare a hard time um and frankly i'm not sure why i would hate to be
in a room where like everyone just agrees with me and there's no entertainment a conversation
should be stimulating it shouldn't just be like the truman show right a lot of these spaces are
the truman show right it's the same thing it's all scripted um everyone repeats
the same crap every single day they don't know how to trade they don't really look at markets
they just look at the price of bitcoin and that's it and that's boring dude you know evan was up
here in january saying yo the s&p and the queues are gonna make new lows and you had people say oh
man but they've been in a range for so long, right? And look at what's happening now, right?
But anyways, Evan, what are you saying, bro?
Now that the breakdown has happened,
what are some levels that you're looking at for the Qs and the SPX?
Oh, yeah, yeah.
I'll get to that in just one second.
I just wanted to comment.
I missed the cage match.
I was at the gym.
I missed the cage match.
I saw who was in here before.
But let's get into the Qs now.
So, yeah, I mean mean i think in all likelihood very very high probability if for basic ta if you guys want
to know like um we have the peaks like if you look at the chart on the nasdaq or the s p 500 on the
daily or the two day and look at the peaks where we topped out in december of 2024 and then february
of 2025 before we had our you know 2025 correction
those peaks are very important price tends to want to go back to those peaks a lot of times
and i think the odds that we go there and retest that area on the triple q5 um 537 is is very very
likely and that's just a typical correction for the nasdaq because that's like a 15 correction on
average you're going to get that every two years, I believe on average. So nothing really to worry about unless you lose that area.
Like I don't want any, nobody should be like anybody who predicts recession and gets it right
at this point, like they're lucky, you know, once you lose that area, then we could talk about a
reasonable odds for recession and all that type of shit. But until then, you know, you're just in
healthy correction,
midterm election year territory, nothing to go crazy about. And I think you're going to get there.
You're probably going to get there. I mean, within a month, I mean, it's been kind of a slow bleed. So maybe it'll take a little bit, a little bit longer. It really depends. I mean,
you're starting to see some major kind of money move around, which could make it happen faster.
But I would argue, you know, by end of April, beginning of May, you'd probably see those levels. And I would also argue by those
same areas in a likelihood for maybe a little longer that you'll see kind of the end of Iran,
probably a month to two months has been kind of my base case on that. I mean, if that goes on longer
than, yeah, we could potentially talk about recession and all other types of shit. But until
we get, you know, until we get it more extended on that front, nothing to majorly worry about.
Your S&P 500, you know, same deal.
That level is going to be around 600, maybe 610, 610 to 600.
If you lose 600, then it gets a little scarier.
It gets a little bit more of a cause for concern.
concern. Now, how does this tie into Bitcoin? I mean, Bitcoin's held up pretty damn well
Now, how does this tie into Bitcoin?
I mean, Bitcoin's held up pretty damn well throughout this.
throughout this. I mean, if Bitcoin were to just correct that much, as much as the S&P 500,
I fathom will correct, which is another 5-6%, that's 61-62K. So we don't necessarily have to
make a lower low, but I'll be completely honest. I mean, it does, you know, I've said there's a
strong case to make that we could have bought on, but it is starting to look a little bit worse
because some of your momentum changes that we were seeing,
you're not exactly seeing them anymore.
So we'll have more answers for that, I think, within a week or two.
But I think it's kind of 50-50 right now,
whether we kind of hold 60K or drop below it.
I mean, my base case for the longest time has been
like somewhere between 40 to 60K being the bottom.
So ultimately, if you were to buy in the low 60Ks, for the longest time has been like somewhere between 40 to 60k being the bottom so ultimately
you know if you were to buy in the low 60ks and i think the likelihood is basically over probably
over 90 that you're going to retest the low 60s like 60 to 62k if you were to buy there obviously
a really good time within the next couple years probably a good bet for a 3x there um you know if
you were to go lower i mean i don't really see Bitcoin because you got to realize like Ethereum bottomed in freaking June of 2022 while the Fed was raising rates and doing some hardcore QT that you haven't seen in a long, long time.
Ethereum bottomed in June of 2022.
S&P 500 did not bottom until November.
Was it October?
I think October actually.
Excuse me.
But in MicroStrategy bottomed in May of that year.
So these things could bottom before your S&P 500.
Bitcoin could have absolutely bottomed.
That is absolutely possible.
Same could be said for, you know, Ethereum here as well.
I think we just got to wait, you know, the next few weeks.
You know, I still have a soft spot for ETH, you know,
especially on its Bitcoin pair.
I think that is still a strong strength.
I think until that loses kind of the low we saw in the beginning of February,
I would remain optimistic on ETH versus Bitcoin.
I mean, there's other, you know, more of the gambler in me likes the BM&R, that type of stuff.
Look, as long as that holds up, as long as that really holds 17 bucks, I would remain more optimistic.
But that's starting to get scary.
We'll see what happens.
We've got to keep our eyes on those.
Same thing for micro strategy. As long as that holds 100 micro strategy as long as that holds 100 bucks as long as that holds its february low um against bitcoin
i think there's some potential there again these are low risk high reward bets as long as you know
when to fold as long as you know when to get out and if you should get out well not any type of
advice but i'm going to get out if they make lower lows against bitcoin because at that point they're
just bleeding you know just like some shit coin against Bitcoin that becomes, you know, it just becomes, you're just, you know, betting on
the roulette table on the number on the double zeros every time you're there for an hour. And
then, well, you lost one hundred grand, you know what I mean? So you got to be careful, you know,
you got to have a strategy there. And I mean, that's about it right now. I mean, XLE is still
going to the moon. That's that has been my trad fight play that's been doing, you know, really
well. I don't see any reason to get out of it just yet. Um, maybe, you know,
if Bitcoin dumps down to 50 K, I would gladly kind of trade that for my Bitcoin, but until then I'm
going to hold that. So that's generally the plan. I'll just wrap up here by saying that, um,
ultimately short term, I mean, a lot of people are probably trying to long right now. That's
kind of how you, um, that's usually how you get chopped up in this environment. I would say I'm more looking for a little bounce,
you know, maybe a rejection from like, you know, 66.6. It's a daily anchor VWAP and trying to
short down a bit more. So just be careful. These weekends tend to have a lot of fuckery and they'll
chop you up. These weekends are tough areas to trade. Maybe wait till Monday. You know,
if you're in till Monday you know if
you're in shorts you know that's cool maybe add to them risk-free like I'm looking to do they find
ways to chop you up this could be a bloody weekend I wouldn't be surprised I wouldn't be surprised
if you're at 62k by the end of this weekend so yeah did you think soul's bottomed man yeah that's
like the bro totally yeah i mean i've
looked at so i don't know if it's like gonna outperform ether you know that one's up in the
air that's kind of like kind of like a play like bm and r well maybe better than actually bm and
r or microstrategy but it depends um yeah i think it may have i think it definitely may i think it's
at least gonna retest like 73 but we got to see what happens i mean the whole market doesn't look
that great i'll be frank right now but i mean there'sest like 73, but we got to see what happens. I mean, the whole market doesn't look that great.
I'll be frank right now, but I mean, there's decent odds.
You know, you just got to look at that Bitcoin pair and see if it could hold that area and
just see what happens like over the next month to two months.
Like, I think if we don't make a lower low on anything by like, let's say end of May,
then you're, there's a high probability the markets have bottomed.
Like if you can hold, you know, 60K in Bitcoin by the end of May,
I think markets have bottomed.
I just want to go on record to say Game of Thrones absolutely sucks.
I've never understood the appeal of that show.
I think as a man, if you watch Game of Thrones,
you should probably get a HIMSS prescription, get your testosterone levels checked,
and that's what I have to say about that.
I speak at a testosterone. I'm going to hop. Wabi, thanks for having me up.
Oh, wait. O'Hare, I wanted to hear what your outlook for how things change.
I was very curious to hear that.
Outlook for how things change?
Yeah, you said you expect sort of a different kind of regime.
I was curious to know your...
Yeah, real quick, because I'm headed into the gym.
I'm going to be doing some deadlift, Wabi.
It's a Deadlift day.
Good, good.
But in a nutshell, you know, my – and Tina, you know, we've been in spaces together, you know, many times.
I've been of the opinion that we're going to have a higher interest rate environment for a lot longer than I think people realize.
And I think that's the fundamental difference between my take and a lot of other people,
that I think the cost of capital is going to go up, not down.
And that's going to have a pretty, you know, for some companies, that's going to have,
or for some sectors and companies, that's going to have a pretty draconian effect.
And so I think, you know, higher interest rates for longer and a slowing of economic
conditions. I think that's kind of what we see over the next, you know, we're in it now,
but over the foreseeable future. Things can change obviously.
So who are the beneficiaries of that environment from your perspective? And who are the
companies that are most impacted negatively?
Well, I think that's a loaded question because not every, you know,
you can look at different sectors and industries.
Let me make it more like basic materials and energy beneficial.
Just broad views.
Yeah, well, the thing about basic materials and energy was, again, these are idiosyncratic things. Even if the cost of capital goes up and the economy
slows here in the US, which I suspect that's kind of where we're headed, energy and materials,
industrials can still do quite well, given the backdrop for what's happening
around the world. So again, very idiosyncratic. I think where you may want to be careful is
high growth areas that have performed really, really well, areas where there's been a lot
of capital flowing over the last, say, decade, and which would include real estate,
commercial real estate, financials, technology,
certain areas of technology, not all, but certain ones.
And so I think you're gonna see a lot of capital rotating
out of those sectors and into other sectors.
I'll give you a couple.
I think materials is one, that encompasses a couple. I think, you know, materials is one.
That encompasses a lot of different things.
But, you know, a big picture of materials, I think it's the place to be.
Petrochemicals, including, you know, downstream like refining and chemical producers.
I think that's going to be a place to be.
And staples, consumer staples is going to be a really good place.
There are certain biotechs that I think will be quite well.
But, you know, again, it's going to be more of a stock picker's market than we've had, I think, in the last 15 years.
The regime has changed i think passive
from passive to active that's i think that's some big things oh thank you thank you thank you very
much oh here i i think if you even look back i think we've been in an asset pickers market for
five years man um since the iwm peaked out in february of 2021 uh even in crypto you had to be
really selective on what assets that uh that you dabbled in um in february 2021 d5 peaked out and
if you weren't on nfts orange saluna salunavax which which is Solana, Luna, Avax.
If you weren't in Cardano, a select few altcoins
or some of the newer ones,
specifically the newer ones that came out after that,
you just got rammed sideways up and down,
ring around the rosy, literally.
And when the market eventually bottomed out
a few weeks after FTX, and that's when the market actually bottomed out a few weeks after ftx and that's
when the market actually bottomed out by the way it was a few weeks after ftx not the exact day
because the market still slowly bled out and bitcoin actually bottomed during thanksgiving
weekend not the singular day of ftx imploding but anyways um and after december of 2022 if you weren't in meta if
you weren't in palantir if you weren't uh in hood and hood you had to wait a year you had a year
long accumulation to buy that thing man it just ranged it ranged from five bucks to 12 that is a
huge range man yeah um listen i gotta hop i'm gonna go in uh do my work if you're still running
uh and you may.
I'm going to wrap up right now.
Okay, well, we'll talk later.
Then have a great weekend, man.
Okay.
All right.
All right, guys.
I'm going to go ahead and wrap up.
Thank you to all the speakers.
O'Hare, Tina, David, Evan, Mitch, everyone else, honestly,
who came up to yap with me.
Thank you all so much.
Follow all the speakers
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