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Market Talk - MARKETS READY FOR A MASSIVE MOVE!? CPI COMES IN COOL!!
Recorded: June 11, 2025 Duration: 1:31:30Space Recording
Short Summary
In a lively discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored the bullish trends in the market, highlighting Robinhood's stock surge, Ethereum's dominance, and the potential for an altcoin season as Bitcoin dominance wanes. With CPI data signaling cooling inflation, the stage is set for significant growth in the crypto space, particularly for emerging tokens like Hype and Farcoin.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. The End Thank you. Music Thank you. so Welcome to the podcast. Thank you. Oh Thank you. so Music Thank you. What's going on, guys? Josh, i think you have a hot mic brother
my bad i know idea it's all it's all good man it's all good bro welcome to the show man it's
gonna be great to catch up with you man same thing with you donnie same thing with you ev
it's gonna be a great show welcome back everyone to market talk i'm sure you hear my voice right
now it's a little feeling a lot better than how it was last week when I tried to do the show and I was coughing after every other sentence. But that just is what it is. I'm going to go ahead and try after the show to get back to the gym. in almost two weeks man i tell you what um you go from squatting over 500 for over 10 reps no belt
and then two days later you're in a fucking hospital bed and you know the world just
crashes around you um and then within a week and a half you feel completely better it's it's um
incredible how the human body works but uh either way I'm grateful to be here with you all to talk markets again.
Welcome back to Market Talk brought to you by Because Bitcoin.
We're going to have quite the interesting show for you guys today.
I'm sure you guys see the price action on equity is a bit of a pullback.
But hood is an absolute monster, man.
Robinhood stock once again making a new high year to date which is
incredible actually man um this stock was basically down only for 10 months after the ipo
and did nothing for almost two years and it's just been ripping over the last 12 months uh non-stop
it truly is an anomaly and i still believe it's it's likely to continue to eat more market share
from mstr and i do think at some point circle will follow suit but But S&P and the QQQ on a little bit of a pullback here.
BTC not really doing much.
Seoul not really doing much.
ETH continues to steal the show, man.
And some crazy shit is happening on chain like Aura.
That thing just keeps on ripping.
just keeps on ripping um it's you you've never really seen something that goes from minus 95
percent within two days uh it just smashes through its old all-time high which was at like 60 mil
and it's at 100 mil right now absolute anomaly man and you also have spX 6900 making new highs today.
I think it's right on par with that wick that it had during the inauguration.
And a lot of altcoins hit relative new highs like sold during the inauguration.
But it was only for a smidge of a moment, kind of like when Bitcoin hit 69K.
Kind of like when Bitcoin hit 69K.
So the fact that SPX 6900 is holding above its previous all-time high and about a smash through that inauguration high is just incredible, really.
You also have hype hitting new all-time highs.
Hype is the major of choice on this show.
We've been covering it basically since inception.
And at the top, we were saying on this
show get ready to buy hype at single digits it's going to be a winner it's going to be like bnb
last cycle that's exactly what it's doing right now um i still think the trade for hype is
capturing at least 50 of the market share on. If the Solana product market fit is launching
shitcoins on PumpFun, then I do think at least half of that market can be given for a perp market,
which Hyperliquid is the dominant platform for everything perps. And I think a lot of
centralized exchanges are going to have to
pivot their uh their business rev model to be more reflexive as as hype is most exchanges most exchanges really don't even make any money unless it's a bull market because they get to dump all
coins apply on everybody and of course listing fees and all that other stuff so when we compare hyper liquid compared to soul
right like you have what so hyper liquid is trading at 14 bill market cap soul is trading at
85 that's like a 5x premium trade that you can make on hype against seoul at the very least a 3x premium i think which would
take hype uh to almost 50 bill and i think that's very achievable this cycle i mean guys just if you
just take a look at the top 50 there's a lot of that is just disgusting and you wonder why it's even there each classic ICP
I'm not even sure why things like polka are still in the top 30
Hedera ton
Stellar avax just these dino coins that just have
bots
Bots wash trading back and forth, as with most altcoins.
But, like, there are hardly any new tokens that have released since the FTX bottom
that are actually within the top 100.
Very few.
Very, very, very few.
Especially the top 30.
I think it's only Pepe.
And actually, no, Pepe got knocked out of the top 30.
Wow.
Geez, I thought Pepe was still like a top 25 token.
But outside of hype and Pepe, you don't really have many new tokens that are trading within the top market caps within this market. And I think that's probably going to change once we see things like Bitcoin dominance
have an actual downtrend that lasts more than two weeks.
That's usually been the length that Bitcoin dominance has pulled back.
And you've seen how quickly these alt seasons have been, right?
We've seen how quickly they've been after the election last year we saw
how quickly all season was in q1 of last year as well and in q4 of 2023 bitcoin dominance hasn't
really pulled back for more than like two and a half weeks for the entirety of the cycle and
at some point right we'll have a little bit of an extended pullback, but the twop that Trotify has on this thing is enormous.
And I'm still not confident that we'll see a 50% drop in dominance as we've seen in previous cycles.
I'm very, very, very skeptical on that.
But as far as more local stuff to cover today, CPI coming in cool, I think core came in at like 2.7%.
Expectations were 2.8%.
And then I think year over year, expectations were 2.5%.
We came in at 2.4%.
So we were practically near the Fed's target already.
And with CPI coming in next week, we should have some good headlines to push this market even further.
And of course, the ending of QT should start a pretty huge pop in the market.
huge pop in the market and the fact that we're even getting this kind of price action where
there's where there's actual things to do on chain um and also on perps relative to other summers is
incredible um since 2022 there hasn't really been much to do during the summertime in the
crypto markets tradfi has always been booming over the summertime but crypto
hasn't really been much to do um except this time this time is actually a little bit different you
have a top 20 token hyper liquid just ripping face we have new tokens that have come off the up the cycle going into price discovery like spx 6900 and man that recovery that farcoin has had
over the last week i mean farcoin went all the way down to 85 cents 85 cents and within a week
it's up like 2x off of the lows.
And we were mentioning on the show, right, like you have your first higher time frame pullback on an asset that has been a leader in this market.
Anytime we have some upside volatility, it was a leader during the December altcoin rally, and it was one of the first tokens to bottom out before the rest of the market.
Farcoin bottomed out at 15 cents in March.
And, man, I'll tell you what, the discussions that me and Donnie have had against some of these TradFi people when it comes to Farcoin have been something that you can put in in a movie, honestly.
And I guess it's, I think that's just a trait with people who just don't know how to trade.
And they're better off just dollar cost averaging in the QQQ and the Dow Jones.
So, but you do have some Tradify people that are actually quite smart.
But you do have some TradFi people that are actually quite smart.
I remember this one guy on Bloomberg.
He's a part of some huge fund.
I forget his name, but he's some TradFi boomer. for future digital asset products, having an ETF for these boomers in regards to assets that you
can see how much revenue the protocol makes and just things like that. Things that Troutify people
look at in Hyperliquid is definitely one of those products that he had mentioned. And since then,
Hyperliquid is up like 3x. So not every boomer
in TrotFi is dumb. Some of them actually keep up with trends. And most of these altcoins, honestly,
they're just a lot of these tech, fundamental, whatever you want to call them, altcoins are just
meant to be sold onto the market. They're meant for their supply to be dumped onto the market.
Their yield that VCs get are meant to be dumped onto the market.
And there's really no use case for it outside of cheap gas fees for their chain because no one uses them.
But Hyperliquid is a hell of a lot different than that.
People love trading perps i'm gosh i don't want this to turn into into a hype show but the fact of the matter is it's been one of
the top performers in the market over the last month but um at some point the music will be over
but for now let's just just let's just enjoy the show. You look at other exchange tokens like BNB, they've just been really lethargic.
And you have to ask yourself, what is there to do on Binance Smart Chain?
There's not much to do at all, if anything.
It's just a CZ proxy.
If you're bullish on CZ, you buy BNB.
But you pull up the 12-month chart on BNB, it's been doing nothing.
It's just been bleeding profusely against Bitcoin.
And if your asset is bleeding profusely against Bitcoin, why would you even buy it?
All coins are just meant to be traded for a short period of time and then you
just buy more bitcoin for the long term right but anyways i'm gonna go ahead and get the show
started guys thank you all so much for coming through here you guys already know what to do
show your love hit that hit that spaces tab right above the spaces tab you'll see that link
that says x.com slash i slash spaces
if you're bullish on the market smash up that like button if you're bullish on the market go ahead and
hit that repost hit that retweet button helps out with the algorithm you guys always do such a great
job at this so i'm gonna kick it on over first to donnie don Donnie, what's going on, brother? How are you feeling? We have
FOMC next week. And it's so crazy, man. Anytime these FOMC events happen, people like to call it
a nothing burger. But from what I noticed, usually a day or two after FOMC, when there are some quite bullish conditions. The market just loves to rip higher, man. And
man, talk about a recovery, man. You nailed that Farcoin bottom to a T. And you even messaged me
privately saying, this is it. This is it. And here we are. And it's crazy how people like to
discredit assets. know we look at things
like seoul and even though i'm quite disappointed um at some of the lower time frame price action
that seoul has been having we all know that once seoul rips that's when on-chain really really gets
crazy and it's actually quite bullish that eth is leading rather than soul um if you take a
look at q1 of last year when eth was outperforming soul a few weeks of eth outperforming soul and soul
catching up that that that is what causes a melt up you want that trickle down effect you want btc
leading and then eth and then you know lower lower down the market cap list further out on the risk curve and you get your euphoria, which is great, man.
But glad to have you up here, man.
It's going to be a fantastic discussion.
Hey, bro.
Glad to be back on the show.
Yeah, I couldn't make it yesterday.
I was just a little bit too busy. Now that things are starting to pick up and stuff. I've been having late nights,
early mornings, and just a lot of DMs and stuff. So yeah, here we are. Markets played out. I think
all of the hard work's done pretty much. And now you're just kind of in the last few steps of the
big breakout for BTC and subsequently the rest of the market following suit. So
I feel like the general consensus in the market right now is still to like,
okay, it's finally here. Let me try and get out as soon as possible kind of thing. And a lot of
people are still thinking, oh, more chop or this is the 2021 playbook of a double top and all this
kind of stuff. So I'm actually like pretty solid traders and stuff. But again, because the cycle is so institutionally driven, a lot of macro
levers and forces are what's actually driving the market. And if you're not able to read these
things, then you're just going to have no idea of what's actually happening. So the big picture,
which I keep going on about, is absolutely set in stone now.
You're having talks done with China.
All this policy noise started to get slowly smoothed out and commence with the pro-growth,
pro-market agenda.
There's no U-turning again from that playbook.
They had their chance to run that. Now that window is closed.
So proceed full speed ahead, just like they said when Elon Musk was criticizing the one big beautiful bill. And now they've made up over it. And I think that was just a show anyway. But yeah, just kind of brace yourself for the next, I would say, three months. They're going to be pretty epic. This is the first time this entire cycle, which has lasted since pretty much the end of 2022, to actually have some relief from Bitcoin dominance.
It's so close. It's hanging on by a thread. I think the next wave up where BTC actually goes to take the liquidity at the all-time high and probably burst through it, that's what's going to be the nail in the coffin for Bitcoin dominance temporarily.
And yeah, ETH and ALTS are clearly outperforming BTC right now.
You can notice it very clearly on low timeframes.
If I just share this chart that I posted last night,
it's just the Bitcoin chart with some levels marked out.
If you guys just hop onto that.
That little consolidation that we're forming right now
around 109, 108, around there, 110,
you notice with every bounce
that ETH is actually putting in locally higher highs
and also strong altcoins that are ripping off the lows.
They're also putting in much higher highs,
which is a good sign, right?
That's telling you that the more BTC progresses off the lows, they're also putting in much higher highs, which is a good sign, right? That's telling you that the more BTC progresses
to the upside,
the more that Bitcoin dominance is just going to bleed.
So that's what we want
because again, we haven't had it
for like almost three years now.
It has been, yeah, it's almost three years.
And we've still had coins,
you know, 100X-ing, 200X-ing, 1000X-ing from the lows,
even with those sort of weak altcoin
conditions right so it's going to be pretty uh interesting to see you know if if bitcoin dominance
starts to trend below 53 which is the um the election low that we had 54.5 percent of q4 last
year if we lose that then man what that does to the psychology of market participants,
let alone the actual liquidity flowing around, is it makes people confident to bid things,
low caps, altcoins, whatever, because they're like, whoa, Bitcoin dominance is nuking. This
is alt season. Throw money everywhere. That's just basic market psychology for crypto when that chart starts to rug.
So I think this rally is going to incrementally pump to the upside. But I think the very steep
part of the rally comes when this rally starts to come to a cool down or uh local top right which i did share another chart of uh i'll just quickly go
back to it gold and btc kind of outlining where i think we are in terms of this rally i'll just
share it again uh we're kind of at that first correction point before you know smashing through
the high right so i think this rally based off of like the math of the
lag between Bitcoin and gold was roughly I think gold topped and when did it top
like late April ish it actually put in the high which basically tells us that
this rally for BTC is gonna last somewhere around mid August to September
I think the steepest part of the rally comes then right even if BTC is going to last somewhere around mid-August to September. I think the steepest
part of the rally comes then, right? Even if BTC starts to pull back there for this local
correction, Bitcoin dominance is probably going to nuke even harder there. And that's when you get
the really big rips on all of these ults and stuff. Like for example, Fartcoin on Seoul,
you could have it trending towards like three bill
uh 2.5 billion 3 billion 3.5 and then it gets to that very last stage where it just goes like
two three x from that level uh for kind of like a blow off which you know you don't want to miss
that part because that's like a big majority of the gain so you do have to like scale out
correctly and stuff but yeah i think this rally's got legs till about mid-August, September. Either you just reaccumulate there or with a decent
correction, maybe like 15, 20%, or you literally just trade sideways on BTC and alts keep running
for a bit, then they correct. And then yeah, you go through another consolidation phase before,
I believe, another rally. Again, because the bigger picture is pointing to higher for longer.
And it's hard to comprehend that
because of how high BTC is
for the macro expansion to start now.
But everything is pointing to at least Q1 2026 in my lens.
And another chart for Confluence for that
is this ETH BTC over the DXY. You guys know
I've covered DXY extensively, kind of as being the main lever behind the whole big picture setup.
And even just looking at this chart, every single time we've had this green light for risk on and crypto, you've had DXY trending below
100. We put in that low April 14th on DXY, finally dropped below 100 for the first time in three
years. And you can see pretty much instantly ETH BTC pump 50% off the low. This effect from the
dollar and the bigger picture around what the Trump admin's trying to do with pro-growth, pro-markets, it takes time to trickle through the economy to end up in people's pockets for there to be this environment where people actually have money to throw in markets and they're actually willing to. confluence for how long it can last and stretching it out to this cycle it could last you know
anywhere between the mid of 2026 like the actual bottom for dxy somewhere in q1 or q2 of 2026 and
then start you know coming out in the later stage of 2026 so that's a massive timeline right and a
lot of people are looking you know top hunting uh on this rally right here, which is again, to me, it's the start of the rally.
But yeah, the analysis for DXY is that it's going to help this global picture of basically
persistent monetary inflation, right?
You're seeing the troubles in the global bond markets and all the other things we've discussed.
the things we've discussed, this thing's trending lower. So lower for longer. And
This thing's trending lower.
So lower for longer.
having a BTC at 110k before this kind of expansion, I can only imagine how high that's
going to go. And I am pretty confident that there's going to be more than one altcoin rally.
And subsequently, they'll get stronger as you keep progressing as the global economies start to recover from
all of the stress post-COVID and stuff. So yeah, I think the 2026 alt season, quote unquote,
is going to be where most of the retail mindshare is actually in the market. Because again,
that's when these middle to low income people are actually going to start reaping the benefits
of what's going on with all of the stimulus.
And that's where you get the disgusting high market caps
on all of the altcoins and stuff.
So just crazy to think that the run could potentially go for that long.
And the general consensus is that there's absolutely no chance and that
that there's some sort of uh imminent recession which you know it doesn't make any sense to me
just looking off looking at the macro picture no donny a trump session's coming bro i was told in
march it's coming yeah so you know nothing is suggesting that, which is just like, but you want to have, you know,
the majority thinking that that's the case, because that does lead to eventual long capitulation
over time, right? You start with, you know, the main, let's say financial elites getting in the
market. And then it goes to the hedge funds, the big money, then, you know, big smart money retail.
And then it goes to your friends and then the taxi driver.
Right.
It's like a long process and it starts here pretty much.
Is there a confluence with the Bitcoin dominance to your ETH Bitcoin Dixie chart that you were just referencing to?
Or have you cross referenced that yet?
Yeah.
So obviously when ETH BTC starts to gain liquidity, Bitcoin dominance starts to nuke.
So it's basically just an inverted Bitcoin dominance. If ETH BTC starts to rally here,
you're just going to see Bitcoin dominance rug. And it's looking insanely good. And you can see
with those two circles, it's looking very similar to 2017, just an elongated downtrend because of
the blowout in Dixie, as you can see, after
COVID.
It stayed above 100 for literally three years.
So you've had this slow decline in ETH BTC, which is essentially the risk barometer of
crypto, up until DXY finally lost 100.
And bang, you get the reversal.
Man, Donnie, I remember when we were downtrending you were telling me like during trump's first
term um markets didn't really start to move in a big way until april look at what's happened
since april it's been eight weeks of up only and dude the snp 1,200 points since the low, and people actually want to deny the melt-up.
Like, dude, 1,200 points on the S&P in eight weeks is an anomaly. But at the same time,
Tradify went through a bear market in six weeks, which is another anomaly. Again, you saw the McNasdaq pull back 30% in six weeks.
You saw the Spooz pull back 25% in six weeks.
So I think April was the start of a new bull market.
I genuinely think April was the start of a new cycle.
Yeah, and that's the hard part to comprehend
for current market participants
who are mainly like chart analysts
is that the cycle looks like it's wrapping up
when you're looking at it from like a chart perspective.
But the macro picture is pointing
exactly where you're saying, Wabi,
is that sort of a new cycle is starting now
because you're having such a big macro expansion
that it's only going to lead to higher prices. There's just absolutely no way that it doesn't.
It's too inflationary. It's too bullish for markets. They're trying to push 6.6% GDP
to get their debt to GDP ratio under control. Well, you've only seen that three other times
in recent history. And all three of them led to an asset bubble the dot-com bubble
the housing bubble and the obviously the everything bubble with covid so if they're
trying to push the same thing and you're clearly seeing the market uh do the marketing for you
know bitcoin and stable coins which i've caught on to recently that's really the main push here
uh to continue you know this fiat system in a much more sustainable way
with them pushing essentially stablecoins backed by US treasuries
so they can keep funding their debt.
That's kind of the main picture.
And I'm trying to explain it in a left-curve way
is imagine them essentially creating the conditions
to be able to pump BTC to 200, 300K.
What kind of demand that's going to bring to stablecoins.
People want to get in.
They see things pumping, right?
The whole world will want to get in because it's like, whoa,
and you're just seeing it everywhere pushed all over media and stuff.
So it's a really big setup, to be honest.
So I don't know.
It's pointing to extremely bullish numbers.
pointing to extremely bullish numbers.
It's pretty exciting.
It's pretty exciting.
Yeah, I still think the S&P hits 8,000 by the end of next year.
That's kind of my target.
And that's nothing, dude.
That's what?
Like a 30% move from here or something like that?
percent move from here or something like that yeah the crazy part is the crazy part is right
the last two sort of um i would say check marks that need to get crossed which pretty much we
have the first one crossed is obviously the smoothing out of the tariff noise that's kind
of the fear of like are we going to have the meltdown if that's smoothed out there's no
meltdown right which is already very clear but, but it needs to be completely clear.
And then there's the big beautiful bill.
If they sign that, it's all guns blazing.
And the best part is that actually the biggest money that actually does move markets sold the bottom, right?
That's the craziest part.
So they're slowly piling back in and they're piling in because they can see a 6 to 12 month uptrend in the making.
That's where they bid.
They buy momentum and they buy like a forecasted sort of timeline that they can see forward looking timeline.
So it's just crazy.
Literally some of the best analysts in the world went risk off at the bottom because of literally the admin saying that they're going to essentially put us into a recession.
So that was the tricky part is you had to basically take the risk to bid that low, knowing that they're going to capitulate if it gets too out of hand, which was exactly what happened.
gets too out of hand which was exactly what happened i mean donnie bro we are getting messaged
that paul tudor jones is uh expecting sub 4k on the s&p and that we should be shaking in our boots
so and the best one was this is this was actually a psyop i reckon uh pushed by you know people that
actually did snipe the lows they were, retail bought the bottom in record amounts,
therefore we have to revisit the lows.
So everyone's waiting to revisit the lows.
And this thing just keeps grinding higher and higher and higher.
And then they buy when you cross the 200-day moving average
or whatever it was at 5,800.
Dude, it's breaking TradFi so much.
Peter Schiff admitted to underage woman. It was crazy, dude. This broke TradFi completely. They have no idea what to do now at $110K. It's amazing to watch.
What are you seeing out there, Josh?
What are you seeing out there, Josh? How are you feeling about the markets?
How are you feeling about the markets?
Yeah, honestly, I was just enjoying Donnie Cook there, dude.
I pretty much aligned with everything he was speaking.
I think something I've been covering lately is just – and it's the same thing.
We made it through the bottoms.
We bought below 80K.
We bought as much as we could under 80K twice.
We have great positions, been absolutely crushing and dominating the trades.
And now we're just positioned for the high liquidity environment.
And I mean, Donnie broke down a lot of it between the big, beautiful bill, the feds
cutting, the pivots and everything that might project us into 2026.
But there's even more bullishness on that as well.
I mean, you got the CFTC and the SEC open up entire regulatory guidelines, de-risking
D5 for institutions.
You have the Genius Bill,
which just passed, I think, through the Senate or just got pushed to the Senate here today. And
we're going to be looking to see that get voted on. But that brings in a whole nother influx of
more or less trillions of dollars in stablecoin demand and DeFi access. So, you know, I think
we're just at that point where it's the precipice of a
financial shift and the adoption curve. You know, I don't think there's any way to look at
necessarily what that ceiling is, but just understand the dominoes that are in place
as these monies start flowing into this new market sector. And so, you know, something I've
been kind of talking about a lot, but trying to shut down, but talk about is a Bitcoin super cycle. You know, I see a lot of people out there throwing the world's, you know, the word around super cycle that we're going to have this dominated, crazy bull market. Everybody's going to get rich. I don't believe that. I do believe Bitcoin is in a position to perform a lot stronger for a lot longer.
form a lot stronger for a lot longer. And there's going to be select certain altcoins and sectors
that follow suit with that. Of course, if Bitcoin goes to, you know, I'm in the belief that we're
going to see more stair-step action where you go up to $130K, $140K, rearrange again for a while
with institutional manipulation, altcoins get drained, fleets back into Bitcoin, same thing,
another leg up to $170K. And whether that that happens or not you know the the conversation is
back to what you guys are mentioning here which is like the Paul Tudor Jones and all these
institutions do they're giving insane price predictions of like multi six figures to millions
of dollars now I'm waiting for the first institution to come out and just say bitcoin's
going to go to a fucking billion dollars like at this point they're just being pussy someone
needs to do it someone needs to pull the trigger and just make the billion dollar Bitcoin claim.
But, you know, so to that point, though, that extent, when you're looking at that five year timeline, Bitcoin's the conversations Bitcoin.
People really need to remember that.
So when you're holding on to your sub, you know, three thousand, you know, three thousand on the coin index of your altcoin, and it's just being drained against Bitcoin.
Just because Bitcoin goes to $250,000 or $400K doesn't mean your altcoin is going to 10x this
time around. And the reason why I say that is when I was here in 2021 or even 2018, even in 2021,
you could still do this. But everybody that was in crypto in 2021, if you were a full-time crypto
junkie, you pretty much know, you knew or have had read every single white paper for every single crypto on the market.
There was a few hundred, right?
Then there was like a few thousand, a few clued meme coins.
Today, there's rebrands and new white papers and layer twos and layer threes and side chains and so much development in the altcoin space.
so much development in the altcoin space is as that money pours in, the Bitcoin liquidity on
those trading pairs even becomes more diluted. And so it's just something I think people should
take into account is as this liquidity entered this market, again, it's from an institutional
perspective. Retail still doesn't necessarily have this money. And Donnie just said it, dude.
I was laughing the other day about this with some friends that they straight, there was
straight up a narrative that retail somehow bought this bottom.
And I'm over here shaking my head because I remember all of us on a Twitter space three,
four months ago with everybody saying like, oh, we can go to 50K.
We're going to go to 49K.
And we were all just up here like, no, we're buying.
We're going to keep like, we're down 30, 40% from alltime highs on bitcoin or whatever it was 25 all coins
were down 80 percent uh hell dude i swear wabi you talk about fart point you've you've called
the fart coin bottom 90 times or if that's donnie as well like i've just seen you guys call these
all point bottoms and so i know retail for a fact is not necessarily in the market and that's just a
that's a false narrative what i would pay attention to is that liquidity cycle.
And I agree completely with Donnie's timeline
that even if we have a jump to $170K,
don't be shocked if Ethereum is only at $5,000.
And that's just because of the liquidity
that's being distributed into these markets.
Again, it's institutionally focused on the Bitcoin.
And I think that's going to open up more
as we see all this deregulation take place from the CFTC, the SEC, etc.
You get the Genius Act, you get the market structure bill, you get Article 12, and we see more adoption.
Hell, I think I'm going to be able to help and I'm going to see a lot of exchanges do this, but bring perpetual contracts to the United States.
That brings more liquidity.
So the second side of that goes in, OK, for everybody that's holding altcoins, what do you need to watch for as an altcoin holder? Well, that was definitely in March when
we were screaming under 80K. We're like, guys, these are prices that you may not see again for
a very long time. But now it's, okay, it's the Fed's cutting, which I don't know, fuck Jerome
Powell at this point. Just seriously, this guy is literally making the biggest political
joke out of himself. I know he does. There's no reason for him that he has to cut, but there's no reason not to at this point.
And when you cut markets at all-time high right before our political campaign, but you won't cut it when we are crushing on inflation data and we're now three months in these tariff conversations and it's still not falling over just because of the energy costs and supply chains and everything coming down.
It's like even a 25 basis point rate cut, like something at some point.
So if that happens in whether it's August or September, and I don't know how big that's going to be.
I still think we're going to see 50 to 75 basis points this year.
Some people are only saying 20.
There's still a good amount of analysts.
I think we're not going to see a single rate cut this year.
As soon as that liquidity starts opening up and you get the exposure of the DeFi protocols
and all those investments, I think in 2026 and whether it's Q2 and that follows maybe a similar timeline as Donnie, but maybe even 2027, I think you're going to see another institutional wave similar to Silicon Valley in the early 2010s when like 2010 to 2014, where you just see a huge dump of investments into all of these new products. And that's because institutions,
I still would argue, are very limited when it's access to yield products with DeFi. It's very
new. It's inexperienced. And so as we see those products start to prosper, as we see now trillions
of dollars in demand come into the U.S. dollar through bond markets with backed stablecoins and
whatnot, it's just going to open up a whole new avenue.
So, you know, right now I'd have to say here is,
I see Evan's hand up, but his hand's got to be getting tired at this point,
is ultimately if you're in retail, really just look for the opportunities.
Like, I'm not going to stand here and say on this panel
that you're going to have the opportunities that you had back in March,
but there's still great opportunities out there,
and there's going to be huge investments into a lot of key sectors.
I personally believe that stable coins, real world assets, tokenization. I think you're
going to see that flow over into Web3 publications, which is kind of like Epic Games, Activision
like that. Once GTA 6 launches, I think there's going to be a huge new creator market. That's at the tail end of 2026.
And so just start studying and focusing on those key areas.
And I would say the last thing you should be doing right now as well, if you actually
want to make money this cycle, is for the love of God, if you're still not using ChatGPT,
I was talking to someone yesterday that's still not using AI bots, you're going to be
left behind.
Within five years, the top 1% of earners in the United States are only going to be people that have integrated AI into their lives. You can
right now literally take, if you know nothing about the web3 gaming sector, you can ask with
a deep thought process. I recommend the $200 model. I know it's disgusting on chat CPT,
but if you can afford that deep thought process, dude, I'm telling you right now,
if you do not know how to use AI and we do get this influx of retail money
and you see this money start pouring into these investments,
you're going to be outperformed by everybody that does use it.
But Evan, go ahead. Sorry, there's my rant.
Yeah, what's going on, guys?
Yeah, I agree a ton of what Josh was saying and what everybody was saying.
I mean, I'll give you kind of from a technical technical perspective what i've been really looking at on the markets
and it kind of coincides with what a lot of you guys have been saying i mean obviously we're all
you know still pretty bullish it's hard not to be bullish you know right now you never want to be
you know saying it's 100 gonna you know going to go one way or the other but the technicals would
give us you know a very high probability that j June is going to continue to be a bullish month. When you look at crypto funding rates,
I mean, no one's going degenerately long just yet. I don't think we would see that until at
least the end of the month, early July. Fear and greed, still in a moderate place, nothing
that would equate a pullback just yet. I think it's going to be ETH season. When you look at
ETH versus others on your charts,. When you look at ETH versus
others on your charts, when you look at really ETH versus anything right now, ETH looks damn good,
especially ETH versus Bitcoin. I mean, from a technical perspective, it doesn't get
much better than that, especially in high timeframes. So my view here is that when you
base it upon monetary policy, and I mean, obviously, I just look at betting odds,
and I don't really care what Trump look at betting odds and i really care what
trump's saying i don't really care what powell's saying i look at where the money's going and where
people are putting their their the money in terms of betting odds most likely you're not going to see
a rate cut until september however you know until we see that that would probably be if you think
you're going to see a quarter four all point season which you probably will um you know you
would probably see an eachTH season until that.
And maybe a little bit more than ETH season, you'd see an ERC20 season in addition, because
some ERC20 tokens look relatively good right now as well. But I think it's generally a very ETH
dominant market. I mean, we could see ETH at 4K by early July. I don't know if it's going to go
that high, but I think at least 3200 is a really good goal. And I think that ETH is going to be very dominant until you see an actual NTQT and an actual rate cut, which would likely be in
September. And then September, I think that rate cut would be at the end of September when that
FOMC meeting is. So October, November, December, that's your quarter four, and that's your all
coin season. And I mean, without Elon, like we had last time posting at Doge all the time,
without crypto YouTube being as big as it used to be, you're, without Elon, you know, like we had last time posting at Doge all the time without, you know, crypto YouTube being, you know, as big as it used to be.
You're probably not going to get a crazy, crazy, crazy all coin season like last time.
But I mean, hey, you got Bitcoin at probably going up to 150 at least by the end of the year.
So, I mean, we'll take that.
And I mean, eat that probably a good shot at 7K, maybe even 11K.
I think it's a little bit too optimistic but my real big place would
be 7k so that's what i'm kind of looking at i mean kind of for retail right now i know josh
was mentioning um josh was mentioning re you know retail what should retail do i mean obviously not
financial advice but i think eath is the big play right now and if you want to be kind of ballsy
once you finally get that monetary policy if you think it's going to be like last year because when
they cut rates i think it was yeah september of 2023 that's when you had that little altcoin season
for a few months and i would kind of follow that for your cycle there but you got to be careful
because statistically the best place to dca out of these markets is from october to december in
the post having year so it's kind of like you I mean? Like people, a lot of people are going to be buying the alts that other people are kind of DC out of and trying
to scale out of. And just keep in mind, I mean, sometimes you could hold an all, you know,
it's probably people that are still holding from May or November of 2021. And they may not be in
the green until fricking October to December of this year, you could be holding for a ton of time.
And then three weeks, you get all your gains back
and you double your money, triple your money.
You know, that's how crazy it is
with some of the smaller caps.
So, you know, to reiterate,
look, I think ETH is really dominant right now.
I'm huge on ETH right now.
And I think alts are going to do pretty well in quarter four.
And I think you're going to see,
just the last thing I'll talk about right now,
I think you're going to see, it may be similar.
Like I was looking at previous bear market years, obviously 2018,
the previous bear market year before 2022, 2018 and 2022 S&P 500 was a red year for S&P 500 as
well. When you look at the bear market year before that, it was 2014. That was a green year for the
S&P 500 and a red year for crypto. Now with mainstream crypto and all everything like that,
I still think,
you know, there's probably people who are saying it's just going to keep going up into 2026. You know, I think that you may have a good shot of the S&P 500 having a green year next year,
especially with Trump and seeing, finally seeing a little bit of that correction for Bitcoin. I
could be wrong, but I do think it may be like 2014 in that sense. So the thing to
move your money into potentially, you know, would be S&P 500 as you scale out at the end of the year,
say Bitcoin's at 150K, say ETH's at 7K. You know, if you're trying to scale out of something and
maybe potentially doubling your Bitcoin evaluation, if you get back in, if you're following the
cycle and getting back in towards the end of 2026, Sp 500 or probably i don't want to back up peter schiff you know but
you know probably s&p 500 number two would be gold so yeah
luke go ahead man what's guys? How are you guys doing?
Donnie, yeah, I'm trying to find reasons to be bearish here, but I feel like a lot of people are having to chase this market,
especially when it starts hitting all-time highs on S&P.
But when you look at PMIs and the dollar just starting to break down out of this range and ISM hasn't even solidly broken above 50 yet, I mean, unless people expect us just not to go into an expansionary phase and we have some type of deleveraging event, I mean, have you tried to convince yourself any reason to be bearish here at all?
I just don't see it.
Like move index is melting.
VIX is melting.
Dollars breaking out of this range it's been in for years.
Like they're not cutting the deficit.
So is everyone just not choosing not to pay attention and being partisan about the administration like that's making them
extra bearish what do you think because i i'm trying to find reason to be bearish and i can't
yeah there's literally no reason bro that's the that's the weird part but
you know crypto twitter is weird like that right Everyone's kind of pointing towards this four-year cycle.
They're very sold on that idea.
And they actually, it's like an inverse psyop.
They think like everyone else thinks that it's an elongated cycle, therefore it won't be.
But actually, everybody thinks that it's a four-year cycle and that we should be exiting on this next leg up where it's the actual complete opposite.
And they confuse like, you know, quote unquote people with the ones who actually run the
market, right?
The actual money that moves the market and the actual money that moves the market is
going to be bidding the things that we're looking at, which are actually bullish, right?
The admin pushing pro growth, pro markets, the liquidity expansion, the kind of bigger
macro picture with this persistent monetary inflation, right?
Yeah. the kind of bigger macro picture with this persistent monetary inflation, right? Yeah, I mean, the people that are looking at that,
they're going to be bidding the market and moving the market higher.
And then you have retail on crypto Twitter telling you it's a four-year cycle,
blow off top and imminent recession, which makes no sense.
It just doesn't line up with anything.
No charts are pointing to that.
The economic data is resilient.
If it goes slightly soft, you're going to have some cuts potentially in September.
I don't see it.
And then we're just in this fiscal dominant world too, right?
Where like the Fed, people keep talking about rate cuts in the Fed, but them jawboning the
market and people being dovish is the put. I don't think
them cutting rates or not is a part of the calculus here. Deregulation of the banks and
there was a Trump put. People thought there was no Trump or Fed put, and there's a put.
There's a put under the market. They're not
cutting the deficit. So in my mind, that's all you have to know. And then you have Besson coming
out saying, we're going to grow our way out. And then you have midterms already around the corner,
like coming pretty quick. So I just see bullish. And then when you look at all the metrics you talk about and
liquidity conditions dollar breaking down move index melting down ism hasn't broken above 50.
i mean it just looks it looks very very bullish yeah like you said it's it's a it's a fiscal
dominant setup right and they're telling you, okay, bond markets are stressed.
We have a supply, demand, and balance.
What are we going to do about it?
They're literally telling you the liquidity toolkit that they're going to tap into.
And you can do the math on all of that, what it points to.
And that's on top of the fiscal deficit that they're going to run.
So they don't need that.
You had bond volatility spike and they came out the neck in basically five hours and started jawboning the market.
Yeah, people were saying you're not going to get SLR exemptions until the Fed does QE and ZR.
And I was like, what?
Yo, can I hop in here real quick?
Luke, man, great points.
Wish I could follow you twice.
That's something that I've been hammered on about too is the business cycle.
It's like, do we think we're really just not going to expand at all this cycle?
And I'm looking at us chopping around 50, below 50.
And, you know, an excellent point about, you know, people thinking that it's these, you
know, that it's a that it's a Bitcoin having dominated cycle.
It's not about the Bitcoin having.
That's a fundamental aspect for sure of the of the of the value prop of Bitcoin.
But it's a it's a central bank debt refinancing cycle.
I mean, it's almost starting to look like a private and commercial bank debt refinancing
cycle.
But either way, it's a debt refi cycle that drives these things.
And I'm looking at the ISM, March, April, May, last cycle of the post-having year, and
we were at 60, 65 for months.
And now we're, you know,
and that was when we saw the big gains.
And so, you know, I'll pin this up to the top
and I think this is important.
And I think it goes hand in hand with that.
You know, look at the social data
coming out of YouTube and Twitter.
New YouTube subscribers, new Twitter followers,
bear market lows.
And I think a big part of that is the fact
that we're still, you know,
kind of ranging around the 50 and the ISM. People don't have money. The expansion's not there. And
I think a big part of that is tariffs. Businesses just don't know how to plan. And so they're not,
they're not expanding. They're either laying off or they're, or they're pushing it down the road,
but it's, it's really good that we're, and you know, here's the thing too. It's like, you know,
I agree with Darius Dale on that, you know, Trump was kitchen sinking, you know i agree with darius dale on that you know trump was kitchen
sinking you know kitchen sink the economy and um arguably maybe actually trying to transition us
away from you know the fiscal and monetary largesse that you know is uh the hallmark of of the u.s
economy whether he was or not the bond market put a stop to that in april and you know i think he's
following the reagan playbook and you can put macro charts, TA, you can put it all aside and say to yourself, Trump wants to
rally this market into midterms. And, and that's, that's what he's going to do. Yeah. I mean,
if you look so like post 2008, when you look at these cycles, yeah, it's it's the business cycle i mean julian battell and
ral have their work on this is is very sound in my opinion like it's just the business cycle
like 10 times sorry to interrupt yeah it's it just coincidentally all links up with the elections
and the debt refinance cycle and all this type of stuff. And it's not set in stone.
Just because Bitcoin's ended in these years doesn't mean it has to.
I mean, it still might.
But in my mind, everything's been taking much longer
to get into that expansionary phase this time around.
Like, when you look at all the metrics,
it seems pretty clear to me.
So, I mean, yeah, I don't know.
I feel like they're going to run this thing hot.
100% dude.
I've been saying this for months, man.
It's refreshing to hear someone else say it
because that's starting to feel like a crazy person.
But yeah, I mean, absolutely mean absolutely yeah i don't know i mean could you guys figure out any reason to be bearish here i mean the thing about this too is like every person
that i respect and has been very spot on for the past year they're all bullish so i mean like yeah have you looked at uh do you
do you pay attention to darius dale and the 42 macro team yes he's bullish uh mel madison this
other guy that called the bottom of s&p same with donnie called the bottoms of everything raw and julian battell like all these guys that are very data
driven are all bullish 100 and like and and and they've been correct yeah and so i think you know
i think uh you know long live paradigm c as as darius dale says and you know i think and darius
made a great point the other day too and he says says, because I listen to a lot of these macro guys,
and yeah, the guys like Rawl, Darius, the data-heavy guys are all bullish,
and then some of the more, not to say that guys like Demartino Booth or Jim Bianco
or even Mike Howell came out a little bearish on his interview with Wealthy on,
but all these people are trying to sell you something and i spoke about this yesterday and i think darius was spot on i think it was his
executive summary for some time last week i think early this week um that that that they're that
they're maintaining a negativity bias to try and influence people's uh action bias to to get people
to buy their subscriptions to you know they're trying to sell you something. And so they have to come out a little whatever,
like with a hot take, I suppose.
That's not to say that they would trade in their integrity.
The data is telling us certain things.
And I wanted to ask, too, real quick,
what you guys think about the CPI report
because I saw a post from James Thorne, and he was saying,
I'll pin it down below. He's saying that most of the, most of what's hot in CPI is, is just housing
or shelter rather. And that, you know, his argument is that directly, I pinned it down below,
or I'll pin it to the top. If it's not welcome, just take it down. But he was saying that really
CPI is pretty cool you know without shelter you guys
have you guys seen that what do you guys think about that okay let me just reply and then let
someone else go but just on your your point you made before like a lot of people being ultra
bearish there's one thing that i kind of started realizing i mean it's not some like i just had an aha moment like there's a lot of
people that let their political leanings or their bias take over their analysis of what's actually
going on and i mean you just have to take that into account when you're listening to people
because a lot of people are bearish and saying retest the lows and all this stuff it's
like it's either you believe that the admin was going to do what they said they were going to do
or you said it's not possible and fade it so yeah okay well yeah you make a good point there i do
want to say though political bias isn't going to necessarily always be a negative because if for
example if you're a capitalist look at scott. I mean, it was literally just banking off the fact that the guy that
literally crumbled the Bank of England was going to be successful. And, you know, he wanted to
restore GDP in the United States. So I think it's also, but I get your point 100%. I think that
political bias might be, you know, however you want to talk about that leans a certain way.
It definitely, like Trump session, we heard it in March, right? But then you look at the actual economic data to the CPI point,
you know, it was just obvious. I mean, like they were deregulating the energy sector,
they were deregulating the financial market, they were deregulating supply chains,
they were expanding and investing. Like none of that was necessarily bearish. And that's why,
you know, around the tariff conversations, people were claiming that this was going to be devastating to the markets.
But you have to, you know, you see a lot of it's pretty much a tick talkers that do it.
They'll sit on their live streams like, oh, tariffs are bad. Tariffs are nuanced. Tariffs
aren't bad. Tariffs are nuanced. And if there's going to be a tariff, you got to ask yourself
firstly, OK, well, what is the tariff? Well, alongside that tariff, what else is being done? So in this case, deregulating the energy market, opening up
and investing into more energy sectors is going to drive down all your costs from a supply chain
perspective, which we're seeing results in disinflation, not de-inflation, but disinflation
within our CPI numbers. And we've seen them drop to levels we haven't seen since, I think, pre-COVID. So that goes with the, you know, what's interesting to me is when you look
at the CPI numbers and then now you have to ask yourself, okay, is Jerome Powell actually at all
good at this job? I mean, some people wanted to defend Jerome Powell, but you got to remember,
this is the same guy that told us inflation was transitory, got it completely wrong,
then cut rates for no freaking reason at the top of a market cycle just about 12 months ago or however long ago that was. So now you have to be like,
okay, well, what's he waiting for now? And the Fed has been very, very, very clear on
their 2% inflation goal, which we've essentially hit completely. So if that's not it is, and now
the last two meetings we've seen him say he wants
to wait and see with the tariffs, and now we know that there's nothing to wait and see. The tariffs
aren't causing inflation. Energy costs are still coming down, even with the tariff conversations
and trade deals are being done. You really just have to ask yourself, what are they waiting on?
And I don't have an answer for you, but the Federal Reserve doesn't even have an answer for you.
And I don't have an answer for you.
But the Federal Reserve doesn't even have an answer for you.
So, you know, the CPI just tells me that's really good because what you want to see in the CPI is as that happens, and for people that are coming in that don't know the difference between disinflation and deflation, deflation is something you'll pretty much never see ever in the history of the economy.
Maybe spestered by some good or some service, but you're never going to see deflation.
Disinflation is where the rise in costs of goods and services, the rise in inflation slows down.
The Federal Reserve was created to artificially purposely print money. Their goal is to have 2%
inflation every single year because they want to incentivize people to spend their dollar and put
it back into the economy. So with that in mind,
as we see the disinflation take place, come down to 2.1% like you saw today,
the other metric you want to watch is going to be wage growth. So now what you want to see is now
that disinflation has occurred, we have not gone to pre-pandemic levels on cost of goods or services.
Prices of goods and services are still rising at 2%. What we want to see now is wages outpace that.
So for
the first time, retail can start looking, you can look at the personal savings rate, you can look at
credit expenditures, you can look at debt cycles, household debt, whatever it is. But you want to
see debt start coming down and you want to see wage growth starting to rise. And if that's the
case, that gives you a really strong determination on is retail going to be able to be spending back into our economy.
That's what I would have to say on the CPI. I think that at this point, it's going to be just
good numbers or average numbers at this point. I mean, how you might start seeing 1.9% within the
next two months. And I think that would be shocking. Of course, you see also the investments
and everything that's rolling through. We now have like $10 trillion in investments.
You're going to see that on the long end.
So that's not even the short end.
That's the long end, which arguably means you're going to see huge growth domestic GDP growth in 2028, 2029, which would be just even better for market cycles.
It's all really, really healthy stuff. But I wanted to end with a good point though, that you guys were reflecting on was if there's ever somebody you're following that has made a book about negativity, they're financially inclined to be negative. If they've ever made
a book on being permanently bullish, they're financially inclined to be permanently bullish.
So if you ever are just following someone that has a book and that book's not about market cycle
or structure or risk mitigation or risk awareness
or anything like that. It's just literally like Peter Schiff saying, hey, markets are going to
crash, buy my gold. It's just a clear indication that you need to, if you're going to listen to
them, just make sure you're still doing your own research and just keep kind of an open mind
to other data points because, again, they're financially incentivized. But you guys brought
up a ton of great points. I hope I brought some conversation to that.
I do have to hop out of here a few seconds, though.
So continue on, guys.
Good stuff.
Yeah, I mean, as far as what the Fed's looking for next, I mean, aside from what increasingly seems to be a political bias really as we as we move forward which i'm i'm
remiss to say but it does it does almost kind of start to seem that way they're looking for higher
unemployment you know and that was that could be outdated i think that was a few months ago that
um chris waller came out and said you know we're looking for bodies so we're looking to see higher
unemployment rise but it does seem like they're shifting towards like a focus on inflation.
And I mean, was inflation cool? I mean, it came in higher than previous, but lower than
expectations. What's the verdict on whether the CPI print was cool or hot or middle ground?
It was cool. It cooled today. I mean, it's still not at their 2% goal, but it was better than
expected, which is always a plus sign.
And I don't know if you follow this metric, but this is where I would have – like I wish I was in that reserve or being able to ask questions for the press room for Jerome Powell.
Because my question would be if they're worried about unemployment rising, which is going to come from a lot of like doge layoffs, et cetera, within the U.S. government.
The private numbers, I believe, and Wabi or Donnie, you might be able to correct me on
this.
I had to go double check my reference point, but I think the private sector grew slower
than expected month over month or quarter over quarter with the private growth in terms
of employment.
I think it was like 37,000 instead of 120,000, which then again would, in my opinion, make
the argument to cut rates because if they make that money more accessible and borrowing costs cheaper, the private sector is going to hire more.
And even though unemployment is going up, it will roll back over into the private sector and increase growth domestic production.
So that's where I have a – I hope someone can answer that on the panel.
can answer on the panel i really don't know why jerome now at this point i think he maybe won't
I really don't know why Jerome now at this point.
cut this meeting but by next meeting it's seriously going okay is there something political here i i
have no idea yeah we'll see i just don't think it even matters i think we're just going to be
so tired of winning very very shortly and all of that stuff is just noise. There's no signal there anymore. It's just literally Trump said market's going to go up.
Yeah, literally.
They said the market's going to go up.
They said everything is going to boom.
They're creating that environment no matter what,
fit or not.
They already gave us the toolkit.
That's my favorite part too.
It's like we're now, what, 120 days into this administration.
It's like everything they
said they were going to do they've done so like if at this point if you're questioning them going
to be like well they're saying that like they everything they say they're going to do is is
happening and taking place here now so it's a good point don't even yeah there's not even an argument
you bet well they did it you know yeah literally and we're in the disbelief phase of it now so you'll just see a big rip in markets and then it'll be like oh it's actually
playing out and then everyone piles in on top of each other one thing that i you know and i'm not
even almost like i'm not too like hyper focused on on interest rates what i'm really been focused
on is an ending of qt and we spoke about this yesterday. I'm not sure if anyone was able to dig into this further,
but I heard Chris Whalen said yesterday on a podcast
that the Fed has signaled that they're going to end balance sheet runoff this month.
Can anyone speak to that?
Anyone find anything more about that?
Because that would be an end of QT.
Am I understanding?
Was it his opinion or was it like a...
That's what he said.
He said the Fed's going to end QT this month. They've already signaled that. That was like the exact words that he used. opinion or was it like uh that's what he said he said he said the fed's
gonna end qt this month they've already signaled that that was like the exact words that he used
i listened to it like 30 times i'm like what am i yeah i'll have to go i didn't see that thanks
for what's what's that podcast called it was uh chris whalen on um the julia laro show um it was
i think he said it within the first like i want to say minute seven somewhere in minute seven i
could be wrong but it's definitely in the first like 10 to 15 minutes yeah i would love to see i'll go watch that uh right after this actually
so thanks for bringing that up but it's i think at this point everybody's expecting it so it's
like really i'm just watching like poly market's honestly a fantastic indicator just to see what
markets are pricing in but yeah i mean the qt it's got to start and i think if you follow that
money so this is actually a great point that you bring this up because I'm sure you've seen like the money supply overlay to Bitcoin chart and kind of that money cycle flow.
And maybe somebody can confirm this on this panel, but I don't believe that that M2 money supply expansion adjusts for the policy shifts that we once saw with the CCP in China with their different readings now on their yuan, but also on top of that inflation.
So just make sure if you're overlaying that you're trying to adjust for inflation in different discrepancies within other market cycles with their own currency markets. But the second part of that is it
isn't an uptrend. So I think everybody expects that quantitative tightening. It's over. It's
paused. Now it's just that complete reversal like you're mentioning. And I mean, I wouldn't be
shocked if we saw that at this meeting where they just announced it to completely stop.
Yeah, that to me is the most bullish and like as far as like liquidity goes
I've I've honestly given more credence to FedNet liquidity as it relates to to
ETH BTC all to the percentage of Bitcoin market cap you know I've been I've been
banging on about this extensively unfortunately I don't have like I can't
like actually like create the charts so I have like my charts kind of outdated um as far as like that
actual cross i'll um i'll leave them down below but you know fed net liquidity all coins as a
percent of bitcoin fed net liquidity eth ptc tracks pretty closely and so you know for them
to nqt for me is more consequential um to to bitcoin or to to altcoins and eth than you know then
than global liquidity although there is something to be said i'll post another one for some added
context um it's from cross-border cap sensitivity to 10 global liquidity shock i shared this
yesterday too so sorry if you're if you were here yesterday maybe like you're getting deja vu here
but um there's definitely a correlation there.
But and almost now, like I'm almost starting to have to revise that because it's looking like, you know, the central bank isn't currently a huge buyer of bonds unless I'm something I'm not paying attention to.
But it seems to be, you know, private and commercial banks that are buying up most of the most of the treasuries.
We've got a chart for that, too, here somewhere.
Yeah. U.S.s banks public debt holdings and then um someone someone called this earlier i can't remember who it was exactly that put this chart up but i'll share them both down
below um basically basically saying that even though the fad's been tight you know banks have
been banks have been loose and they're you know their their securities holdings are going up and up and they're bond buying.
Sneaky, sneaky QE, brother.
I know.
I mean, I don't think we'll see like a headline QE from the Fed this cycle.
I mean, he said it, right?
We're not even thinking about doing QE until 0%.
He basically scoffed at the idea in front of Congress.
But they'll find ways to do it, right? I mean, what we're seeing from the private banks is basically a form of stealth QE.
Yeah, they're just creating fiat units by any measure.
Yeah, and then all the short-term debt that we're issuing too, like, I'll pin a plethora of charts down below.
Sorry about that.
But another one from cross-border cap, you know, the not QEQE, and all the short-term debt issuance that we saw from Janet Yellen in 2023, arguably
to goose the economy to get, you know, Democrats back in office. And that's what everyone said was
the bull market. And my, and you know what I've been running around screaming really since the
beginning of 2025 is that $6 trillion in hidden stimulus was not the bull market. It was, I mean, I don't know what it was,
but it seems like the rest of the world is kind of following that playbook.
I mean, most of the, you know, we're seeing the long end of bonds globally go up so high.
And people think that it's a U.S.-specific problem.
But, I mean, you know, here comes another chart.
sorry about that but um you know if you look at term premia the united states is actually you
Sorry about that.
But, you know, if you look at term premia,
know relatively low compared to uh compared to the rest of the world
so it's not it's not it's not just a us problem you know we're seeing the long end go up all around
the world which does you know that does kind of send up like alarm bells right you know that that
could be a drag on stocks, on risk assets.
But I'm not sure how they get that down.
I mean, my understanding of the bond market isn't quite there yet
to just, you know, off the top of my head start, you know,
speculating about how they would get, you know, 10 years down.
Do you even think that's a big deal?
Are you even looking at bonds too much?
Or you think like, oh, okay, like I'm not going to overthink this. If we, if,
if the U S needs to offload debt, they'll just sell it to, they'll sell it to Jamie Dimon
or they'll, or they'll figure out a way. Yeah. So I'm just viewing it as a negative.
That's going to end up bullish because they have to, you know, keep those yields down, right? If
everyone's got more debt than ever before, they can't have yields spiking out of control so they're just going to print more to cap them so it just ends
up everything full circles back to print more money which is bullish btc and crypto 100 yeah
and i was listening to my call last night and um i'll pin one more because i think this is important but it shows the uh just global liquidity um over bitcoin um and and it kind of and it forecasts you know how it's going but you know
we're going up and then this too is like another thing is like uh and i was listening to darius
today you know michael michael saylor coming out there's going to be no bear market for bitcoin
you know up only be really careful about that man, because, I mean, look at the dramatic decline in global
liquidity that, you know, that cross-border cap is forecasting.
Maybe, I don't know how far out that is, maybe, you know, end of 2025, beginning of 2026.
It's, you know, it's going to happen.
But we're not, you know, that's what makes me bullish, too, is because we're not there
yet.
You know, people are still wondering whether or not we're even going to have a big run,
let alone telling people that, you know, that it's up only new paradigm of money.
There's always a reason, right? That's like, and that's another thing too. Like,
it's not really a macro point, but it's just kind of just a general market point is like,
narrative follows price, you know? And, and that to me has been made evident more and more as I,
as I, you know, this is my first cycle really paying attention.
And I've only been on X for about a year here.
But the more I realize that people are very reactive towards price.
And it's like everybody who thought ETH was dead a month ago is now flipping bullish on the timeline.
is now flipping bullish on the timeline.
And, you know, oh, this is why, you know, threads and, you know,
long form, you know, long, you know, long, long essays about why,
you know, Ethereum Vitalik's back now.
He's no longer a femboy.
Oh, you know, you get all these, you know,
pictures of Vitalik with a huge buff body and shit.
And it's just like, okay, now he's a Chad again.
And it's just like, man, it's like, I don't know.
I'm there to follow the price you know
i love twitter for that so funny the best thing i heard recently was everyone knows the money
supply is going up therefore it's not going to play out crazy work i mean i'm all for i'm all
for a uh a contrarian stance, but Jesus Christ.
That's like everyone knows that gravity is a thing, so
clearly it won't work.
Now that we know about it,
you know, clearly we're just going to float
off into the distance.
Well, I think
it's a great time to wrap up, man.
We've been streaming for about an hour and a half.
Rags, is there anything that you want to say?
I feel like I'm your designated closer now.
Designated closer.
I feel like I'm a very good closer.
I'm never good at the sale, but I'll always close the sale uh for my art and stuff like that
but um yeah no overall like yeah I agree with a lot of what's been being said I think this is
going to be like undeniably the best one uh we've ever had I think we realize that now and I think
that it is going to be like super different this
time in a sense. I don't believe we're going to have a devastating bear market like we have in
the past because of all the adoption going on because of the politics. We'll definitely have
a bear market, but it's going to be nothing like we saw in 2022.
I don't think you're going to have these crazy implosions like you did in the past now that you have these big hedge funds.
They're not going to want these gigantic, devastating crashes of the market because they're making so much money off of it. They're going to want to
continue and squeeze this for as long as they can, or at least for as long as Trump has the
presidency and they can get away with it. So I think that even when we do go into a bear,
it's not going to be as brutal as what we've seen in the past it's kind of gonna
stabilize only almost like i think like the crypto market is gonna go into like price discovery for
itself like in the um in the bear but yeah i actually agree with just like everything that's
being said i mean i'm already in like 99 of all my plays for memes and alts I think the only thing I'm really looking out for
now is maybe new narratives and new alt point narratives that are going to come about as we see
alt coin season I believe will like rotate different narratives last time it was layer
ones I don't think it's going to be that the cycle. I think AI will have its moment, then maybe RWA, then something else.
So I'm looking for like the new emerging narratives that are going to be hot at some point during all-point season.
Because in regards to everything else, I'm already kind of like in the market, you know.
So I've just been watching and waiting.
Very happy to see East finally moving.
Because it's, take it, take it seem like for freaking ever.
But yeah, I think all good things are coming.
I think this is the time, you know, if anybody's new in the audience, like this is the time
to get into crypto and understand this stuff.
Like, like literally right now, like this is the cycle to be in.
If you were going to be in any cycle, it's definitely this one.
So I don't think people are late because I think that, like I said,
we haven't had the altcoin season yet.
And I think there's going to be a lot of new narratives that kind of emerge
out of nowhere.
And I think there's going to be a big opportunity there.
So that's what I'm looking at now.
Yeah, I want to thank you guys so much for coming in ragsy frankie donnie uh evan also was up here luke was also up here if i'm missing one name apologies y'all but donnie frank anything else
that you guys want to say before i wrap up here or you guys are good to go?
I think just, you know, here's the thing, man.
And I'll mimic Julian Battelle on this one is that patience is always the ultimate alpha.
Whether we go higher, whether we go lower, Fed cuts, no Fed cuts.
I still believe that good things are coming.
Good price action is coming.
All the fundamentals are there, in my opinion.
So I still think the biggest risk at this point is being sidelined.
That's facts, man.
Well, thank you all so much for coming in, guys.
Thank you all so much in the audience,
or whether you're listening to the recording, I appreciate you all.
Thank you all so much for coming into today's insane stream content that you will not find
anywhere else on spaces.
Most spaces are honestly boring.
They're interview style.
They're scripted.
And I try not to do that, man.
I try to bring some personality into these spaces.
But either way, thank you all so much for the support.
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