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Market Talk- MASSIVE CRASH!?IS THE BULL MARKET OVER!?
Recorded: Aug. 25, 2025 Duration: 1:35:01Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. I'm going to go. Thank you. I'm just gonna break your back! All you better, all you care!
All you better, make you buy it all, you're not all day!
I'm not gonna break, all I'm gonna break,
I'm not gonna break, I'm not gonna break, Oh, my God. Oh, my God. Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God. Oh, my God. Oh, my God. I'm not a fan of the game. I'm not a fan of the game. I'm not a fan of the game.
I'm not a fan of the game.
I'm not a fan of the game.
I'm not a fan of the game.
I'm not a fan of the game.
I'm not a fan of the game.
I'm not a fan of the game.
I'm not a fan of the game.
I'm not a fan of the game.
I'm not a fan of the game.
I'm not a fan of the game. I'm not a fan of the game. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I need a pain. Oh, yeah.
I need a pain.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. . Thank you. Субтитры сделал DimaTorzok Music Wow Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Come on your prize! Oh Oh guys what is going on boy oh boy oh boy what an insane start to the week btc at 109k iwm is barely off of its local friday
highs this is uh all after ethereum almost tagged 5 000 us dollars ETH BTC making fresh local highs over the weekend as well. Same thing with
Solana. We also had others BTC make two fresh daily highs. And today, apparently, they want
to liquidate a bunch of people, not only in Bitcoin, but also in a plethora
of altcoins.
And for those that don't know, it's not just people longing centralized exchange alts or
majors.
It's also meme coins.
There's various platforms that now allow you to trade leverage with some of these on-chain
tokens that don't really have that much volume
or liquidity. So people across the board are feeling the pain today, but another man's pain
is another man's glory. So become the bid that will make your lineage proud. Bitcoin is officially
off by about 15% or so from the all-time high that it made earlier this month, which was truly
just a deviation above the July high that we set. I believe that was in mid-July. We set an all-time
high of $123,000. Then a couple of weeks ago, we set another all-time high at $124. And since that $124 all-time high, it's really just been an altcoin market game, really.
And we also had ETH dominance hit almost 15%, so close to those range highs that I want to see.
And ETH is experiencing quite the price action today.
It's been a while since we've seen Ethereum have this kind of volatility.
And that's how you know it's actually a bull market.
People get on leverage and then all the gains that they've made so far over the last couple of months are all wiped out in a single second because of one thing and one thing only.
And that is greed spot will
always win but today guys we have an insane show for you all with myself and donnie i also see
in the audience and truly as we say on this show the setup in front of us is insane.
The playbook is unfolding step by step.
This bull market will continue.
And I want to welcome you all back to Market Talk brought to you by BecauseBitcoin.
I'm your host, Wabi.
And today, over the next 45 minutes, maybe an hour, we're're gonna go ahead and yap about the markets so before we officially get started guys if you guys can go ahead and show some love to the space best
way you guys can do that is by clicking the spaces tab and right after you do that you'll see a nice
little link actually no i forgot to put it uh up on the nest excuse me guys i'm gonna go ahead
and put the spaces link up top so right above our profile pictures guys you'll see a nice link
that says x.com slash i slash spaces go ahead and show your love and support to the space smash up
the like button smash up the repost button helps get more eyes into uh the brand for the show
helps get more people in here and also helps bring in more buyers there there are probably
some people out there that are shaking in their boots wondering what's going on
and if they listen to the show they'll be reassured that structure is still intact.
And this honestly is this honestly is a massive, massive, massive opportunity.
So, Donnie, I want to welcome you on, brother.
What in the world is going on, man?
People are running around once again calling for cycle top and you know
volatility has been going in both directions you'll remember even the week before Jackson
Hall there was some volatility and me and you both said whoa whoa whoa look here bo this is the same exact setup that we saw
in late june and we actually popped off just as we did um after that uh strange chop that we had
after the june fomc we've kind of done the same thing but this time with uh eth and soul and all
coins instead of bitcoin which has just been in a range for a minute. So we have our first substantial correction once again in a while.
And this correction blasted through within a day rather than a couple of days.
It's sort of like the Band-Aid is being ripped off here, man.
So, you know, what goes down must come up.
Equal price action to the downside.
Use your results to even more violent upside if we're in a bull market,
which, I mean, I think we can all agree that we're still in a bull market,
especially if you have equities barely down from their recent local highs from last week after Chad Powell came in and he flat out said
now is the time for monetary policy to shift. Powell told everyone on Friday at 10 a.m. Easter
after he had Frosted Flakes for breakfast and some Wheaties, maybe a few granola bars as well. He looks like a granola bar enjoyer.
And he flat out told people,
look, I'm going to go ahead and follow the playbook.
I'm going to go ahead and follow Chad Scott Bessette
and help them get GDP to 6%, 7%,
which is pro-growth.
And look, man, it's been about a month and a half since the big, beautiful bill has been passed.
And since then, markets have been trending upwards and quite violently, especially after days like today or events that last 24 to 48 hours like we've been seeing here in the crypto market.
And that's pretty much what I've got, man, to kind of lay out the foundation for the space, man.
Just like with the big, beautiful bill, after that was passed, I think we had a little lower time frame dip.
And then after that pump that we had, after it was signed, we had a little bit of a pullback.
And then we raged to about 123.
And others BTC started to correct a little bit after the big, beautiful bill was passed.
And then it started to mark up a bit.
And over the last couple of days, btc actually started making some highs so um
i i really think donnie this is uh one of the last opportunities at least on a seasonal basis where
you'll be blessed with pullbacks that don't immediately be reverse but once this thing gets going man it's going to be uh insane man so the playbook
chapter two is about to start the setup is insane incremental step by step man so
i'm gonna pass it on over to you man what is going on donnie
sup bro thanks for for that nice intro.
Yeah, the playbook from the bottom has just been basically incrementally confirming.
And I think that's actually a good place
to kind of start with the space
because even though we've gone over it multiple times,
you really do need to zoom out
and not just from charts,
kind of just have a zoomed out overview
of the entire sort of picture
that's presented in front of you. And in this case, it's with the policymakers, right? The US
government, the Trump administration, and the Fed. So from the 74k lows, they were originally running
the detox period that they wanted to run in the market, which
essentially, just to cut it out with all of the finance jargon, they were basically going
to correct the market and look to basically come out of that with some new implications
to basically the policies that they wanted to run.
However, they did state in that that they do not want to crash the plane as they're running
that playbook. And if anything does get out of hand, they were kind of signaling that they will
back away from that. So we had massive bond market volatility throughout that crash in April from the
tariff announcements as the tariffs and everything that they were talking about was basically running
that detox period playbook that was obviously bearish and deflationary for markets, right?
So that's a big policy shift to where institutions, large players, the ones that actually move the market,
they will exit the market because it literally just means asset prices go lower.
But when we did have that bond market volatility spike, and we had the US 10 year and
some of the others just basically whipsawing up and down, you saw the Trump administration quickly,
publicly, start to back away from that. And then again, incrementally from that bottom,
they were reversing the playbook back to a pro-growth, pro-market agenda, which is basically
very stimulus-heavy to run that playbook, which means it's going to be highly inflationary.
That is actually upwards pressure on risk assets and downwards pressure on the dollar.
So as their playbook started to shift publicly, they also started to pass bills and legislation
that actually amplifies and
cements that playbook which the main one in that was the one big beautiful bill which they did get
signed they raised the debt ceiling uh so that's basically cemented in stone so now you can't just
reverse on a whim uh and especially not you know you can't just be looking at these charts and just
be like oh it's it's going to be a bear market. Because the policymakers that control the money supply,
if it's expanding or contracting,
are telling you that it's going to expand.
They've raised the debt ceiling
and they're running that pro-growth, pro-market agenda,
which you just can't reverse like that, right?
They already had their window to reverse it.
And then to even further solidify that they can't reverse it again
is they're trying to win the midterm elections, right? So if they were to reverse it now, running that old playbook of detoxing the markets
takes too much time, many, many months and quarters to be able to reverse from that and
come out with a positive outcome for their voter base that voted them in in the first place, right?
So it's just full steam ahead on this playbook. And even this takes time to trickle through the economy before that voter base actually does start to feel it.
Let's say the low to middle income households and small businesses, which we know they have been crushed specifically from high interest rates for so long.
Basically combating the super high levels of inflation that we had from the COVID cycle.
As you've seen Jerome Powell be kind of hawkish this entire time since then, basically for the last three years,
right? You've had the ISM below 50 for the longest time, I think in history. And that's slowly going
to start to reverse as the Fed now, which is looking like they want to pivot to basically
cutting rates, that is also going to start to reverse as well.
So all of the positive things that they are trying to bring to the low to middle income households,
i.e. the voter base for the Trump admin, that should start to incrementally be materialized over the next few quarters.
But that playbook, again, is upwards pressure on risk markets.
So that's where we're at right now. And looking at these low timeframe shakeouts on a Bitcoin chart or things like that,
it really has nothing to do with the higher timeframe picture that's being played.
So that's kind of the reassurance that the market is going to go higher. And of course,
you saw an instant positive reaction when basically Jerome had that speech at Jackson Hole.
And he basically hammered home that they are looking to cut rates.
So you did have a big reaction on the Bitcoin chart, which that was the most confusing part.
Is, you know, you were downtrending very aggressively into that.
You had a perfect setup for a very sharp reversal and you did reverse.
And then obviously, here we are now taking out all of those lows.
It did look a little bit suspicious as that pump was happening
because as you were pulling back,
if you guys actually just go to the post I shared in the nest,
if you just take a look at that liquidation heat map,
I'll explain it a lot easier.
So just jump on that and be viewing it. But basically,
you had that set up for a very sharp reversal going into the Jackson Hole meeting. It played
out. But as you can see that downtrend trickling towards the downside, people who were FOMO
longing after Jerome spoke and was dovish, they're continuously adding to their longs to protect
their position, which they would basically put a stop loss or a liquidation price at that prior bottom wick so that their position is quote unquote
safe. Right. So as you can see over like the last 24 hours prior to that very big liquidation
cascade that we had, it just continuously stacked up below that wick to where you're prone to a
stop loss hunt at that point. And they definitely did exploit that, as you can see by the massive liquidation cascade we had. So price keeps
trickling down. They're adding money to their longs to fuel it. So their liquidation price
goes lower and lower. Because basically, you can even see from Twitter sentiment, everybody was
like, oh shit, rates are going to come down. Let's long everything, long, long, long. So it's not a
surprise now with the benefit of hindsight that you are actually sweeping all of these lows
with multiple stabs to basically shake out
all those longs and clean them out before you eventually actually do reverse
this because the Fed actually jumping
on board with rate cuts is bullish. How do we know that this is bullish?
Well, from August 1st, we had a downtick in the ISM, which basically that's further amplifying that
the economy is slowing. And then we had the bad jobs report, right? So the Fed shortly after that
was faced with a slightly high PPI print, which is basically just the inflation side of the picture of their dual mandate,
that Jackson Hole meeting,
well, the way that Powell addressed it,
he basically chose
helping out on the unemployment side
over choosing inflation.
So he's basically in a stagflationary environment
choosing to still support the unemployment side,
which is obviously the
correct move. And he should have done this earlier, which basically saves the potential
of the Fed flipping massively hawkish to continue to combat that 2% inflation goal that they've had
ever since the COVID blowout. So that's a massive market tailwind knowing that they're not going to choose
the inflation side, i.e. be very hawkish
and actually just run with the unemployment side
while inflation is still a little bit hot.
But they have addressed it as transitory,
I think a few times from basically all of the tariff stuff.
And so, yeah, it's a huge market tailwind
to have them on board
because that basically just means inflation may run a little bit hotter or maybe even stickier,
and they're still going to help ease monetary policy. So an inflationary cocktail for risk
markets to go much higher. And again, the Trump administration playbook is already highly inflationary,
massive amounts of stimulus. We know this by basically the words they've been saying,
they want to run, or they want to, the target that they need to hold basically to have a
constant debt to GDP ratio is somewhere around 6.6%. So we've only seen that in three other prior
times in recent history, which have all led to an asset bubble, basically.
The dot-com bubble in 2000s, the housing bubble in 2007, and then obviously the last cycle, the COVID stimulus bubble, which was just everything go up, where you had these similar numbers of around 6.6% GDP.
So they've followed through with this.
They've passed the bills bills and now the Fed wants
to jump on board as well. That's an insanely bullish setup. I really don't think that the
market is bullish enough. But when price does reverse, it will cement that narrative that
it's actually happening and everybody will eventually feel it bullish. If markets start
to rip going into FOMC now, everyone's going to be like oh wow yes of course
of course we're ripping like the fed is going to cut rates into this already insane setup so just
because you're having a low time frame shakeout and cleaning out some leverage to the downside
it literally doesn't mean anything to the big picture playbook right so that that's kind of
like the reassurance on this dip that it is going to reverse. But then there is multiple points of chart confluence as well pointing to a reversal.
And honestly, the main one for me is just the fact that BTC follows gold, which gold
is basically just...
It's kind of the chart that just shows current global financial conditions.
It's really linked to DXY.
If DXY goes lower, gold tends to go higher,
just like how we had that nuke from 110 on DXY below 100.
Gold had that massive rally to 3,500.
It's basically inversely correlated to that.
So we're still yet to follow this gold fractal.
If you guys are still on that post,
you can flick to the BTC gold overlay.
We're still yet to fully fulfill the overlay, which we have been trailing pretty nicely.
You can see off that bottoming zone, we had a very sharp reversal back to a fresh high,
a little bit of a pullback, another fresh high, another pullback.
And then we put in a slight higher high, just like the Gold overlay is showcasing.
Again, you have to give some deviation to this.
Gold is 10 times bigger in market cap.
It trades a lot more cleanly off global liquidity expansions and contractions.
BTC is much more prone to these
low timeframe exploits and shakeouts.
That's why sometimes it can be a little bit confusing.
But nonetheless, gold was projecting
a lower low sharp pullback
into a very sharp reversal.
So we're pricing in that downside right now.
We're cleaning out this downside liquidity. And I think we're about to price in the opposite side
of that, which is basically just rallying into FOMC very aggressively. Again, when price starts
to reverse, I think the sentiment and the narrative will shift back to being bullish around those Fed
rate cuts. And then it's projecting basically BTC stays in a range.
And I think in that range is where you actually have alts basically catching up to BTC for this
cycle as they've been lagging massively behind. There's multiple charts of confluence to point to
kind of alt season, quote unquote, dynamics at play. Bitcoin dominance has lost 58.5%,
which was kind of the last support zone on that chart.
I think if BTC does start to rally, you're just going to have alts rally much harder. You've been
seeing that with ETH and SOL. And actually, the other BTC chart is rounding out a nice bottom as
well. So picture BTC in deeper levels of price discovery forming a range. We've seen in these low timeframe ranges
that ETH and solar, especially ETH, rallying super hard against Bitcoin. So imagine a high
timeframe range in a much deeper level of price discovery. You're going to have those conditions
just further amplified on a high timeframe scale. So that's what I think the setup is right now.
If you just go on that actual first chart
that I've got for BTC there, just simply the BTC USD chart on Binance, we are setting up an
accumulation setup very similar to that 74K low, for example. You've just got a range. You
continuously deviate the lows. People freak out. All kinds of bearer sentiment at those lows,
just buys being filled, right?
Liquidity being taken out, buys being filled. And you can see where I've marked in those green
dollar signs, you're just leaving consistent liquidity to the upside now behind you, right?
After an accumulation setup with bearish sentiment. That's a very good setup for a sharp reversal
that the gold overlay is already projecting. You can even verify
that there is upside liquidity if you go on the heat maps as well, and you can see it very bright
above 116k, especially around that 120 block. So I think if you squeeze through that with the
technical setup that you have, with all the macro tailwinds that you've got in front of you, with
the gold overlay projecting a higher high, I think you're going to have a sharp reversal once this bottom is complete, which again,
it's either in or close, right? I don't know the exact number. All I can do is trade the
confirmation after the accumulation is done. So right now, for example, if you were to reverse
this chart pretty quickly on Bitcoin and you get above 113k, that to me would indicate that the market maker
shakeouts are finished, the liquidity is cleaned up, and you're reversing this chart to basically
new all-time highs. So just got to wait for that confirmation. The good thing is as price trickles
lower like this, you're leaving lower highs above you, which is basically the last point of market
structure that you need to flip to flip the chart bullish. So it tends to compress, compress, compress,
and you take your last lower high.
If you flip that after this series of deviations to the low,
that basically signals to you that, okay, the shakeout is done.
That's the bottom.
And now we're reversing to bullish, essentially.
So it is close.
I still really, really strongly believe that we're rallying into FOMC.
And I think the narrative will shift
as soon as you start chipping away
at these upside levels.
And yeah, it's basically going to lead
to old season conditions
because we've already got the main charts for that
deeply in the right direction, right?
If BTC, all it needs to do is stay above 0.03,
which it's well above that at the moment.
That was the weekly market structure shift on that chart.
Easily cleared that and now you're approaching the first high time frame resistance at 0.04.
Even if you pull back all the way to 0.03, you've still got a high time frame bullish trend on that.
So let's say BTC maybe takes liquidity just for a little bit while it gets that deep price discovery level and maybe gives it back in that range.
Who knows?
Doesn't matter.
These charts are still in the right direction.
Bitcoin dominance topped around 66%.
You've got a pretty high time frame distribution set up on this on the weekly chart.
And you're just continuously putting in lower highs and lower lows.
So two very important charts in the right direction.
All of the macro stuff in the right direction,
all of the macro stuff in the right direction.
And yeah, I just think we're setting up for a really good pump across the board
with basically alts and control in that range
that BTC is kind of destined to form following gold.
But even on top of that, on top of all of that,
I think at the FOMC, when they actually do slash rates,
because we saw a bit saw quite a decent daily drop on the DXY
as soon as Jerome was basically speaking about that,
I think you're going to get the nail in the coffin on DXY
when they basically talk about it at the FOMC
and maybe even give some more rate cut projections on the 16th.
And you're going to have subsequently gold start to rally
even higher during that period while
BTC ranges since it's lagging behind gold, basically. But that's unlocking a second rally
for Bitcoin and crypto if gold does start trending towards 3.8, 4k, 4.2 following this DXY drop to the
low 90s. So we know that it's a very inflationary playbook.
We know the Trump administration, the treasury side is issuing more debt over the next two
quarters.
So pair that with rate cuts, dollar is probably going to go down, unlocking the next batch
of global liquidity, which is just the next wave for the crypto market as well, which
we're still yet to price in this wave higher.
So I think you've got a massively bullish setup over the next six months, 12 months plus.
So it's just good to zoom out and kind of view everything that's going on so you can be more confident on this low timeframe shakeout and basically connect the dots as to where things
are going so you don't capitulate your positions or maybe even throw in that last bit of cash that you wanted to throw in but you
weren't sure about it. So yeah, I think the setup is, as you've been saying, insane. And the playbook
is incrementally unfolding. And I think price just always validates the narrative. As soon as you have
this chart reverse, everyone's going to be getting incrementally more bullish at the fact that, oh, yeah, the Fed is actually jumping on board.
And yeah, that's it.
That's a really real thing, man.
And I've gone up ahead and I posted something up on the nest for the audience.
I posted a chart, a daily chart of others BTC and BTC dominance.
We called the exact top on Bitcoin dominance here in June,
in late June. The others BTC chart bottom in late June as well. And until dominance BTC goes into price discovery, the cycle just is not topped.
Others BTC is the metric for euphoria.
And, you know, honestly, Donnie, I think this is one of the only shows that maybe I'm not tuning into as many spaces as I used to, but there's been this narrative over the last few months that is often yapped saying, oh, Bitcoin is at 100K.
There's nothing to worry about.
And now it's, oh, ETH is at 4K plus.
There's nothing to worry about.
Man, this is the cycle where hardly any few people denominate their portfolio
holding sats or holding east they're holding beta they're holding on-chain stuff right
and others btc is it's basically the true uh fear and greed index right And if you take a look at the others chart, Donnie, that I put up on the
nest, the rally that we had from the election from like the 9th all the way up until mid-December,
dude, that was like a 60 plus percent rally. And off of the lows, off of the lows that we set in june we're not even up 30
percent we're not even up 30 percent like this rally that we've had from the bottom in june
hasn't even come close to the rallies that others btc has had um in uh in prior quarters quarter four of last year and
more specifically man the rally that others btc had from uh june of 2023 all the way up until
early quarter one of 24 but the difference between now and then, man, is ETH Bitcoin
was making lower lows at that time, could barely sustain a rally. And now ETH BTC is actually
making higher highs and higher lows. And we have ETH leading, which is what you want to see for
others BTC to have a sustainable rally and actually go
on to make higher highs and higher lows and all that stuff and of course we also have uh bitcoin
dominance absolutely rugging this is the longest time that we've seen in years where dominance
continues to make lower highs and lower lows, which, again, there aren't many individuals discussing.
So just like the Bitcoin dominance that we had where people were saying, oh, this is a dip for ants.
Why are you worried? Bitcoin's only down 5%.
They're going to do the same with ETH.
they're gonna do the same with eth um and after eth is kind of like chilled out that's when all
coins are gonna catch a substantial bid but uh guys during the space donnie myself and a few
others probably just koosh i really don't want to make this like a big panel show to be honest
uh so forgive me for that but uh when we put stuff on the nest guys feel free to check it
out as it does add a visual component to the show go ahead and uh like and interact with all the
posts that are up on the nest and quite quite honestly man donnie where do you before i pass
it on over to cooch what are some constructive levels that you see for Bitcoin dominance?
Because I know on the show on Friday, you were discussing that ETH Bitcoin might start
to chill out once we hit that level 0.044.
We tag just below it.
So that would indicate a higher low for ETH Bitcoin and also a lower high for Bitcoin dominance. And we've got
dominance up about 2% on the day. So once that confirms, what's the next local floor that you're
eyeing for Bitcoin dominance? Yeah, it's pretty simple. It's just the election
rally low, which was 54.6
ish.
That was kind of like our hint
at alt season in Q4 of 2024.
But that was like the last
point on the chart where there was a bit
of demand where if you lost that
it looked like you were going to have massive follow through
to the downside and you bounced off of it and obviously
never came back.
So potentially there could be some resistance around there on Bitcoin dominance.
However, if you do lose that, honestly, there's basically no support on that chart.
If you're technically looking at it, of course,
there's a lot of fundamental reasons that could just stop it at any point.
But yeah, it basically could just go down only until like 48.5 percent around there 48 49 if you
lose that election rally low my goodness donnie if that happens bro i'm gonna be able to send everyone
uh 10 cases of uh saratoga water man 10 cases of saratoga water for the entire audience
if bitcoin dominance gets to 48%, man.
I think I'd actually need to
take a week off from
the show just to
settle down with all the amazing
trades that are going to be made, man.
So, buckshot.
Even the
others BTC chart that you showed,
you can see a clear downtrend
from the prior bull market highs where you've basically had lower highs and lower lows the entire time.
And each of those rallies that led to a lower high, they were still pretty decent in the market, especially the 2023 rallies that we had in altcoins.
Those were crazy.
And even the Q4 2024 rally, it was still just a lower high,
and it was not really that impressive.
Whereas now, we're kind of setting up a high timeframe bottom on this chart,
and it's compressed so nicely that I think if you do reclaim that range low
on others' BTC, you're going to have a very sharp impulse,
maybe back all the way to the December 24 high on that chart,
which was just the Q4 rally of 2024, and basically flip the trend to bullish instead of a downtrend
that it's been in. You actually flip it into a high timeframe bullish trend, which just means
alts over the next however long the cycle lasts, which in my view is higher than people expect,
however long the cycle lasts,
which in my view is higher than people expect,
you're going to have alts in control
basically throughout that whole time
with then higher lows
whenever Bitcoin dominance
takes a little bit of liquidity back.
Just then to basically give it back
to the altcoin market for higher highs
on that other's BTC chart.
So I still think we're literally just transitioning
to the best part of the cycle now.
But you have a lot of people looking for cycle tops and stuff.
But again, just like the higher timeframe macro stuff
just doesn't indicate towards that at all for me.
But we'll see, I guess.
But in terms of BTC levels on the chart,
honestly, it's just my guess where this dip stops, for example. I just know that as it
keeps compressing to the downside, the confirmation point to flip the chart
also trickles down lower with it. So I'm not really too worried.
I know there is still liquidity below around
even 108-ish. Let me actually just quickly check.
Yeah, all the way to like 108 ish you could
clean up all of that but again if you're looking at that uh golden bitcoin overlay you can see a
very pronounced lower low than the prior low we had you know at 112k so i just think uh it's it's
pretty close here and then you're sitting up for a super sharp reversal going into fomc and it can
happen fast like people forget how quickly uh you know just as quickly as this came down which how
many days has it been 12 days of downside imagine you know 21 days of sharp upside how much higher
you can go than the current prices so yeah man just to put it into perspective, ladies and gentlemen,
the chart that we're speaking about, others, BTC, and also Bitcoin dominance,
it's up on the nest, guys.
simply up towards the q4 2024 highs would indicate a 90 plus percent rally and even uh
even greater than that donnie would be the 20 the 2023 q4 highs man which man that that would entail a uh let me just check over here that would entail
a rally of about a hundred and thirty percent rally just for've had donnie of about call it 30 percent maybe 28 right around
there uh from the pico bottom to the recent local high look at all the crazy stuff that's happened
in the market we had useless go to almost half a bill. Bucky went to 50 mil in wave one. Troll went to almost 300 mil. Absolute insanity. Hyperliquid went back to its all time high of $50. I think Pengu also rallied almost back to its old all-time high as well. ETH made an all-time high.
And this is just a small rally.
It is a small rally.
It's nothing close to the complacency rallies that we've had over the last two years.
This is a small rally after a confirmed higher time frame bottom so when we say that
the setup is insane and that the playbook is about to unfold we're not trying to engagement
form man we're just telling the straight out truth and you now have people saying, who the hell is buying ETH? Who's buying ETH? Who
would buy ETH? Brother, Tom Lee and his friends from Japan are shoving in billions of dollars.
You look at ETH BTC uptrending and Bitcoin dominance downtrending, the market is giving
you a clear signal. And Donnie, let me tell you what, man. Our favorite uncle, our previous uncle, is texting me every single time the market doesn't move or dips down saying,
Melt up, ha ha, melt up, ha ha.
And it's honestly insane, dude.
it's honestly unreal so again I think what ETH BTC has been showing us brother is kind of the
It's honestly unreal.
roadmap of how others might look like potentially starting as early as the next FOMC man and
as we stated at the beginning of the show the Fed has indirectly upped their inflation targets from 2% closer to 3%, especially with the big, beautiful bill passing, which is an inflationary setup, which is good for risk assets.
Ragsy, shout out to Ragsy, that whenever the Fed cuts rates after a five to 12 month pause,
the stock market trades obscenely higher over the next 12 months. So if crypto is being integrated
with the equity markets, with all these ETFs, what does that mean for the total crypto market cap?
What does that mean for the total crypto market cap? Probably substantially higher as well.
And what we saw in 2018, just to put some things into perspective, in 2018, the crypto market was
trending down while the stock market was ripping like crazy. And you had marijuana stocks and other
low cap stocks going absolutely insane tech was booming whereas crypto was
down trending so if we're about to go into a new trump economic boom with all this stuff
and crypto is being integrated with trad fi with all these algorithms coming into play with these
etfs it just means that the music is about to be turned up another notch, man.
Yep. Sorry, I was just quickly posting something.
One last thing that I just wanted to share before we move on to the next guy.
Yeah, just checking this BTC and gold overlay again.
That's honestly how I think, even if this overlay didn't exist,
just from how I think it would play out, is that you bottom here, let's honestly how I think, even if this overlay didn't exist, just from how I think
it would play out, is that you bottom here, let's say, I don't know, this week.
It could be literally any day this week.
And you sharply reverse.
Again, you've got that technical setup for a sharp reversal with tons of liquidity above,
untapped lower highs endlessly above you, just like the 74K lows, where it's essentially
a buy the rumor, sell the news
going into FOMC, where again, as soon as the price flips, the narrative shifts to,
oh, wow, the Fed cuts are bullish.
And you rally all the way until FOMC, and then you correct on the actual FOMC date on
BTC and form that range that gold is projecting.
But in that range is where alts really do take control and rally
super hard against Bitcoin basically. And that's a multi-month range as well. It's projected to last
basically the entire rest of the year. And there you go. That's your Q4 sort of seasonality,
for altcoins. And again, it's in super deep levels of price discovery for Bitcoin, anywhere from $138,000 to $182,000.
We'll see for alts to have that speculation and have the market dynamics for them to do well.
But if you see where I've drawn those two lines on the gold overlay, just showing the lower low that we're pricing in.
And then you check Bitcoin below.
Again, you put in a higher high recently, just a quick deviation of that high. And now you're putting in the lower low right now. Again, I don't know to
the exact dollar where that lower low is, but it will flip and you will start breaking these upside
levels. And I think, yeah, you're going to have a super sharp rally going into FOMC. How many days
is that? That's like three full weeks to reverse and trend very aggressively into that. I think it's going to happen, Donnie.
And one other thing, man, that I'll mention is the forex pairs that we've been talking
about.
Bitcoin against the pound hasn't really done much, man.
And the euro as well.
And the euro.
And the euro, it's actually below the all time high.
So you haven't had a real true breakout yet on Bitcoin.
It's just because the dollar has been structurally weak.
It's skewing the USD chart.
But I think the real bullish momentum to the upside
basically follows anytime now in between,
now in the FOMC, and I think sooner rather than later,
just going off of this setup.
And also IWM, the chart that should be affected the most
by all of these shenanigans
around macro stuff,
this thing's not even pulling back.
It's literally barely even budging
on any sort of bearish sentiment at all.
It's just clearing upside levels
one level at a time.
And right now,
the level that you cross,
2.3k, 2.32,
is a super significant level
because basically that's the last bit of
resistance, let's call it,
until you break into all-time highs.
So I think you're going to rally into FOMC, man.
I think IWM could put in a new all-time high before then.
It's looking similar to that COVID flush out.
If you see I've marked in a red circle,
I think you're really close to just
bursting above. Because
obviously rate cuts are going to be upwards pressure on
low cap stocks.
Which then is
more confluence for altcoins doing well.
Yes, sir.
Let's get some thoughts
from Koosh now. Koosh,
what's going on? It's been a
minute, been a couple of weeks, maybe even like two months or something.
I think the last time you might have come on was back in late June, I believe so, before we went into Price Discovery in July.
So, Koosh, what are you thinking of this setup right now?
That's why I waited until now to come back on,
because the last time I came on, we went into prices.
Yes, sir.
Yes, sir, man.
That's what I'm trying to do here.
Buddy, you know, look, I think Donnie,
both of you guys made a lot of great points.
It's tricky if you're following uh x right because and we have to go back to
uh 2022 uh there are a lot of the big accounts like the i don't even know what you consider them
um the influencer accounts well whatever you want to call them, were pretty bearish. And I think by the engagement as Bitcoin has climbed up, you can also kind of extrapolate
the level of exposure of a lot of these same people to Bitcoin.
And my speculation is it's low. So a lot of people missed a lot of these same people to Bitcoin. And my speculation is it's low,
right? So, you know, a lot of people missed a really big move. So, you know, here we are at
109K, 110K, is that where we are today? 110K. There's absolutely no euphoria. It's the opposite,
right? It's like the classic worry. Every pullback, there's worry. There's
worry. There's worry. There's worry. There's worry. Meanwhile, and so not only is there worry,
so this is the opposite of things you see at the top for 2000, Alex. This is the opposite of what
you'd see at anything that would resemble any type of top, and that's my opinion. That's not a fact, right? That's my opinion.
Meanwhile, if you then take a look at the SPX chart,
like just throw up a monthly SPX chart in line form.
You're literally in the later stages of a parabola.
I mean, that's objective.
That is not subjective. Like that's a is not subjective. That's a fact.
That's a fact. You just throw that up in line form. You see this massive 10-year range,
and then you see a parabola. And that's where we are right now. Literally one of, most explosive times for risk assets in the history of my investing career.
And then you denominate that same SPX chart in M2.
And you see, wow, we're literally coming back up to like the 2000 levels.
Like we're almost like trying to reclaim the dot-com era. And the whole tariff dip very closely resembles one of two spots in that chart, if you go all the way back to
2000, before the NASDAQ did a 4X, by the way, in four years. So this is what I'm talking about.
There was two spots in that chart.
One could argue 1996.
Structurally looks very similar to what we saw in April.
So what I'm talking about is like a major spring
that then propels markets to places people can't even comprehend.
Or 1998.
I can argue both.
Both scenarios look structurally very similar to me
in terms of just huge reaccumulation events that lasted 30 years. This huge cup, you kind of come
all the way back up over the cup and then you check back violently and that's the spring, right?
Like that's kind of the same thing that went on for us, in my opinion, in April.
And so we're living in that type of potential setup.
And it's like, oh, well, Bitcoin's, you know, we're towards the end.
And, you know, are we topping or is it close or is it 140?
Is it 180?
Like the opposite of things you hear, right, towards tops.
We should be hearing like it
should be by the dip right remember back in the the second half 2020 like that i think that's the
term where i learned learned the term by the dip because it was enthusiastic when you got dips to
then participate right and buy it and and you're you're you saw uh very often uh a lot of v-shaped
recovery uh so here it's the opposite every every pullback is cause for concern how much lower are
we going to go seasonality is coming up right september does anyone not know that September is seasonally not good for Bitcoin?
I mean, it's like, hey, so we're aware of it.
And so the question is, if you have size, right, and we know what size is, right?
We see sailor buy and it doesn't move price.
So there's a lot of volume going on here.
And you're concerned about your position. Are you waiting to see how that transept? Have you probably already acted? You've probably already acted. I'd imagine if you're that concerned. And basically what's been just this flat, consolidative, corrective phase for how long? For the better part of almost, what, since May? Right? And so not much has really happened.
really aligns with kind of the way I'm thinking about things here. I think we're in the process
of making a low, could have been made already as we were talking, or we're close to it.
And again, corrective phases are designed to disillusion, test people's conviction and get
the weakest people out of the market before the
market wants to move. And when the market moves and it impulses, a lot of it is covered in a very
short amount of time. So the takeaway in terms of what Donnie was saying is when this thing moves,
if and when it moves, right, because that's not a guarantee that I believe it's going to move. I think it's going to move hard to 140 to 180 in a blink of an eye, whenever that moves. And I think it's going to be
a lot faster than people are expecting. And like Bitcoin tends to do, right? It's correcting 90%
of the time. It's either going down or it's flat 90 plus percent of the time,
which is kind of an amazing thing when you think about it. And so, yeah, man, it's kind of like
Groundhog Day. Every time I come up here, it feels like, and that's a good thing, by the way,
right? It feels like when there's a pullback, there's a lot of participants that are really concerned. And these aren't things you typically, as a top, is forming or developing. Quite the opposite. These are things that you potentially see prior to a big move that most aren't expecting. And, and I don't know, if you did some type of poll,
um, I'd expect the next 10%. Most people, I would think, you know, if you did it from a non-biased,
large account, I'm guessing it would be over 50% would say, where are we finished in September?
More, more people would say, you know, if it was, what was, what was the number? Let's say we said
greater than 110 or less than, I think more people would say less than. And so if it was, what was the number? Let's say we said greater than 110 or less than,
I think more people would say less than.
And so if that's the case, that's a good thing for us.
And yeah, that's it, man.
Those are my thoughts.
Oh, wait, one more thing,
because Donnie was talking about IWM.
One of my favorite charts is IWM denominated in SPX.
That potentially put in a double bottom. And if that's the case,
like if that's the case and we put in a double bottom and the first bottom was April and the
second bottom on the weekly chart was the end of July, then it's very closely mimicking the setup that we saw coming out of September of 2020.
Do we remember what happened with some of these risk assets and SPACs and Bitcoin miners
and altcoins and all those things that are further out the risk curve from September 2020
all the way through March 2021? So we're talking about, you know, almost a half a year period. And so there's a,
I'm watching that, that chart, like a hawk, because if in fact that did double bottom,
then, you know, it could be, it could be six months of some, some pretty unexpected things.
So looking forward to it. I'd also look at AR arc invest as well as um both arc and uh and others
btc kind of move together in a weird weird weird way man um let me bring this to your attention
man so it's been almost three years since bitcoin bottomed? But it's only been a couple of months since ETH BTC
and others BTC put in a bottom. And anytime those two indicators, others BTC and ETH BTC bottom,
and Bitcoin dominance tops out, we usually have quite a bit of runway, at least a couple of quarters. And if we take into account the four-year cycle, right, if we just use prior data points,
the cycle technically is supposed to end by the second week of October,
18 months after the Bitcoin halving has historically been when the cycle tops.
But if I look at things like ETH BTC, which still doesn't look tops, if I look at BTC
dominance, which is in a higher timeframe downtrend, if I look at others BTC, which
is barely off of the low, and then I look at things like the IWM, which hasn't even
broken out of price discovery, I think cycles are broken, are
broken, Koosh.
I think they broke.
I truly think they broke.
And if we look at Fed policy, which Fed policy is the number one reason why markets topped
in late 2021 when the Fed had stated that they're about to increase rates, stop QE,
that they're about to increase rates, stop QE, and go extremely hawkish, then I would agree that
the inverse of that is probably true. The ending of quantitative tightening and the shift from
hawkish policy to neutral policy, where the federal funds rate is almost one-to-one with CPI,
where the federal funds rate is almost one-to-one with CPI,
the runway could extend a bit longer than people would even expect,
Koosh.
What do you think, man?
Oh, yeah.
I think because it seems like there's two camps, right,
where I've heard that a few times, right,
it's going to be over very soon through potentially 2026.
But then you look at these because traditional finance leads everything for me.
And I look at a macro chart, a monthly chart of the S&P 500, or like we talked about IWM, if that potentially starts getting into price discovery, or even ETHBTC, to your point.
starts getting into price discovery or even ETH BTC, to your point. I mean, even if it carves in,
you know, I think it could use a little bit of a consolidation here and that would be completely
warranted and that could last a few months. And, you know, then another leg comes out of the blue
and, you know, you're maybe even late 2026, 2027. It27, it doesn't seem normal to me for so many
top and not just in Bitcoin, but just in markets.
We see that a lot with every volatility event.
And that to me just doesn't seem like things you would see if you're near a top, right? Like I call me naive, but I still
think the market in a euphoric type phase induces people, right? And it's not, we're six months away
from a top when my friends start asking me what they should buy. Okay that that's that's that's the indicator i'm waiting
for right and i'm half joking but i'm half serious like seriously like when uh each of you guys i'm
sure are like within your friend groups in real life like you're the whatever guy crypto guy i'm
the bitcoin guy and until and let's just say 30 40 people have tried to orange
pill over the last five years until like 10 15 of them are like oh my god is it did i miss it should
i buy like i'm not getting any of that i'm not getting any of that and i haven't gotten any of
it up to now um until the market starts inducing uh more participants. And maybe that doesn't happen.
I also wonder if, I think it does happen, but I'm saying that's not guaranteed either,
because with these ETFs, that could be going on, right? These institutions could be that
version of retail, and they've been just accumulating, accumulating, accumulating. And so, um, who knows,
but I still think that's something that has, has yet to come. I'm waiting for it. Uh, and, and when
that, if, and when that happens, that the, the way the market works is these people make money,
right? The induction doesn't work unless that group makes money. And then, so that means like six, six
months, right? Uh, at least if not longer. And so, yeah, man, that was a long winded answer,
uh, to your question. So I, I tend to agree Wabi. I think things can go out, go on a lot longer than
people are projecting given, given we're so attached to trying to time things that I've been
there too, man. I've tried to time so many things
and the timing of things is the hardest.
Most certainly been way more wrong
on the timing than right.
But that's a sign to me that, again,
we're probably going further and longer
than people think.
Yeah, I think we're about to enter that stage
And I think we're about to enter that stage in the equity markets.
in the equity markets.
I think the S&P 500 from the October lows is up.
I think we're up like a little over 80 percent.
S&P bottomed at 3,400.
We're trading at 6,400.
So it's up like 80-ish percent. I think once we start going into that
triple-digit territory where the S&P is up 100% off of those lows, you'll start seeing people
euphoric in the equity markets broadly. You are starting to see that a little bit i think meta is actually outperformed bitcoin from the lows
of late 2022 uh same thing with nvidia so we haven't even gotten close um to that level in
the in in crypto i mean people might see it here on x but as far as like broader population like
the stock market not even close not even not even, not even close at all, to be frank, man.
Nobody cares. You go ask, you know, 50 people in the real world,
what the price of Bitcoin is. No one has any idea. No,
no one has any idea we've seven X right from the lows.
It's absolute crickets. Right. And so the, that, it's absolute crickets, right? And so that to me is not in which we even remotely
have the conversation of a top. And then you just, you go back, and what I like, Donnie,
a lot about what you do is you're a student of that goal chart, and I am too, right?
Because that's one of the classic reaccumulation ranges,
massive accumulation range breakouts.
And Bitcoin basically is just the same thing but lagging, right?
On a different timeframe, it's essentially the same structure,
this massive reaccumulation range.
It's the largest we've had in Bitcoin, in my opinion. A true reaccumulation range.
And so on the, let's just call it the first side of the cup, because let's think about a reaccumulation range, there's a cup and a handle like the the left side of the cup was where we all thought it was going to three four five hundred k included
the right side of the cup is where everyone thinks it's going to 110 120 140 k is where this is going
to end the opposite of what it should be it's like's like the market does just incredible things to its
participants. And that's what it did. And that's what I think it's doing here, right? It's setting
up the expectation that is further from the reality, just like it did coming into the massive
reaccumulation event where our expectations were and they were our expectations
were where they were because there were some major moves that were made um to get us to those levels
right so kind of like if you're in the elliott wave an extended third right the the largest uh
segment of the larger impulse um then gets people to expect that the next move is even larger when
in fact it probably is going to
be the smallest right it's like the opposite the old opposite uh close to truth and that's
that's kind of what i think is going on here is we're in the midst of you know early stages of
an extended fifth commodities do this a lot gold did it um And oil's done it before, where you just see these, you see
a lot of people. It's hard to project in the short term. It always ends up testing where
the most people are going to get flipped bearish. And some large accounts have, right? I think
we have some guarantees now from a couple of accounts
that the bull market's over if we close in.
And September is going to be bearish.
And so like these are great things that you want to see always,
especially if you're just holding because the market is doing its job.
And so, yeah, man, I think we come back.
I think Donnie's, I really like the way Donnie's thinking about this set up, right?
Is once this resolves itself, I think we get a fierce rally.
I think it probably goes higher than people think.
I think it could even trickle a little bit into after FOMC.
And then that's more of a, you know, maybe not sell the news, but more that's
where it starts correcting, right? Where it's like, oh, it's risk on. Well, everyone's euphoric,
locally euphoric. Let's put that in context. And then, you know, things potentially
cool down for a little bit and then sets up for a fierce rally into the end of the year
a fierce rally into the end of the year and, and, and beyond.
So next phase should be fun. If you're, if you're just holding, like, this is,
this is the stuff that you're, this is the stuff that you need, right?
This is the stuff that we need in order for coins to go up.
You need liquidations. You need liquidity to build up above us.
You need doubt. You need liquidations. You need liquidity to build up above us. You need doubt. You need, we don't want, you want more accounts bearish, right? You need that. So when you open
it up and you're seeing the emotion that it's expressing on you is probably the opposite of
what's about to unfold. And that same, that's been the same the entire way up right literally the entire way up since uh i remember
doing this space on october 17th 2023 wabi we were at i remember i showed donnie that space
remember donnie the space i sent you bro wait wait so someone called me like irresponsible
because i said dude i think mstr is about to do a 10x.
I think we're a 20 something K, 26 K that I think we're going to get to all time highs before the having.
People thought it was absolutely insane.
Yet all we did was literally broke out of a massive reaccumulation range.
We were sign of strengthening above it for six months,
literally that 24,
you know,
nine held.
And so,
you know,
just,
just consolidating prior to that.
That was,
that was harder to be bullish then than it is.
Now,
this is like, if you're,
if you're a holder here,
this is,
this is easy street,
right?
If you've got some options and things that are dated short term,
yeah, you're, you know, you want to see this thing close over 114 this week. But other than that, this is easy
street. Yeah, those were some interesting times. Luke, I saw your hand up, man. What's going on,
bro? Good. How are you guys? Great space.
Yeah, I think what people are getting confused about is that Liberation Day shakeout,
that was like equivalent to the COVID crash.
Like that was, I don't think people are seeing it as a bear market,
but that was a full-blown panic- panic inducing V-shaped recovery. And I was looking back at
history going back to like 1980 yesterday because people keep calling tops and this and that in like
two months. And when we have 20 to whatever, 30% drawdowns in the SMP going back 40 years and regain the high again I think the
shortest run is like a year after regaining that regaining the high so yeah I don't know just go
take a look at charts going back a long time like once you go down 20 30 rebound retake the highs full runs go on for one two years
before having like another major crash so yeah i don't know i don't know what you guys think of
that but i i think yeah luke i i talked about that in the video i did last week that point you just
made like it's like pulling the spring back, right?
It's like pulling a rubber band back.
That type of shakeout, that violent, that V's, right?
It's like you pull the rubber band all the way back, and we're literally a centimeter past the middle, right?
Between your fingers.
It doesn't just stop there, right?
You're like
a third of the way through the velocity that move so often and it's a great point look at the the v
shape recovery of covid like if you look at the all the sentiment indicators and all that stuff
like the liberation day thing was like the most panicked people have ever been, like one of the most panicked people have ever been in the whole market,
like whatever top,
I think it's top six or something crazy,
like more than COVID.
So I think just go,
if I just recommend people go look at the SPX chart,
going back and see when we have these massive shakeouts and big corrections
and B-shaped recoveries, once it retakes the high, it doesn't just peter out in two months.
If you think that's going to happen this time, then you think this time is different. This is
the anomaly and it just peters out way quicker than the last recoveries in the last 40 years.
So, yeah, that's what I'll say.
I put something up on the nest.
This is a higher low.
All season is not canceled.
All coins will still do wild numbers.
Wait a few months and thank me later donnie do
you think people will be thanking us a few months from now if they buy all coins right now bro
honestly i reckon you cut that time down to like a matter of weeks like i truly think the btc bottom
it has to be somewhere around here like obviously it could could go, let's say, 108, 107.
I don't know.
I just think that the big picture macro playbook cannot change on a dime,
regardless of what you think about four-year cycle theories and all this stuff.
When you really look at it, look at the data and look at the playbook
that the policymakers who control the money
supply, what they're doing, it's likely going to lead to a dollar bear market and likely
risk assets go higher.
I don't think you're going to have a prolonged bear market.
You could have another flush out, let's call it a doomsday wipeout, which again, I can't
predict that sort of event or even like, you know, see it coming.
But it's not going to be a prolonged bear market.
Let's say you have another very sharp like nuke
for whatever reason, similar to like the April lows.
I just think you're going to be reversed again
purely because of the Trump administration playbook
playing out basically, right?
They're going to run that thing at all costs. And if you do have some sort of unwind, the Fed's just going to jump on board
and start printing a bunch of money again. So in terms of a prolonged bear market, I just think
you have to go much higher first before any of that because the dollar is just destined to go
lower. I just can't see after raising the debt ceiling and them wanting to issue 1.1 net trillion over
the next two quarters plus the Fed cutting rates, how that doesn't lead to the dollar
going lower in the short term.
I would say short term over medium term, which is just going to mean gold's going to rally
and we're basically following gold this whole cycle.
So yeah, I just think it's destiny to go higher, basically.
Bro, in a few weeks, man?
Yeah.
Man, that would be something, bro.
Imagine if we get it right,
rallying into FOMC.
And, you know, I'll tell you something, Donnie.
On-chain is going to be even crazier than how it was in Q4 during the AI meta.
I think that was a warm-up.
I truly think that was a warm-up for what's to come, man.
And that rally for Others BTC was like 70-plus percent.
And we barely touched 30 from the low i think i think the actual
number because i drew a little the little ruler thing we barely rallied like 25 from the lows so
it's uh it truly is insane bro it really is and um i think um when i made that video yesterday on my personal profile
covering soul btc and others btc literally within like the first minute that i uploaded that video
it was uh confirmed that there were a few funds uh raising about a billion usd to buy some solana
uh raising about a billion usd to buy some solana which sets up a narrative for uh sole treasury
companies and look at what happened to eth man when the eth treasury companies were announced
i made that eth btc post on my pin profile and eth btc rallied 100 plus percent after that. So what does that mean for something like sole BTC,
which obviously Solana trades significantly lower than ETH?
I think sole isn't even like 20% of ETH's market cap.
That's how big the gap is.
So just from having a sole treasury company narrative
that can be absolutely um insane for the sole for the sole usd price but i'll put that video
up on the nest in case you guys want to take a look at that but uh i'll uh go ahead and pass
it over now to uh ragsy unless donnie if there's anything else that you want to add before i pass it to ragsy and then see what this shogun person has to say
and then i'll just wrap up the show but ragsy uh what's going on oh my bad donnie you want did
you want to say something else man no no that's it for me okay ragsy what's up how are you great
show yesterday by the way it was uh it was a fun time streaming with you yeah it was so good i had so much fun with you yesterday there's a lot of great information so
if you didn't watch that live stream definitely go back and watch it he's such a great host
uh love the show i thought that was really interesting donnie when you say weeks i was
thinking mid-september and early October crazy bullish.
Is that what you mean in a few weeks?
Or a few weeks as in, are we talking next Tuesday?
It depends, right?
But honestly, you could bottom this week if you get above $113k.
If you get above that, to me, that's pretty much the bottoms in.
And you're going to start pricing in new all-time highs.
So I just don't know.
But yeah, it depends.
You could spend time, let's say, the worst case scenario that I can see with what I'm looking at is, yeah, you basically spend a little bit longer bottoming around here, maybe until the first week of September.
All the way up until like FOMC for example and I think
somewhere in there will be a catalyst that'll you know be timely for the chart to reverse but I think
you could reverse this week for example literally just get above 1.13 and it's done just depends
and with that rally of course like with the BTC, as soon as you pass 113, you will start seeing alts appreciate quickly.
Because the fun starts from the bottom when you start chipping away at upside levels because you've just swung momentum to bullish.
So it's not like you have to wait till all-time highs to have fun, literally confirm the low and start chipping away at the upside.
Yeah, yeah. That's about my time frame too so that's good so yeah i concur
i agree sounds great i need my altcoin bags to gigasen very exciting stuff but yeah we talked
a lot about this stuff on wabi's show yesterday on twitch which is also you know phenomenal
information very excited super bullish i uh i hear like i hear and see things on twitter saying like So, you know, phenomenal information. Very excited. Super bullish.
I hear like I hear and see things on Twitter saying like that was the Bitcoin top there.
Like that's the top of the cycle.
Essentially, they're pointing at the Ethereum chart saying it has a double top and that's bearish.
I just really want to reiterate, I think you guys are so wrong.
want to reiterate, I think you guys are so wrong. And there's a much bigger picture to be painted
than just the short-term analytics on charts and stuff. And I think we're going to a risk
on environment. And I think that I'm still super bullish on Ethereum. It has not seen its all-time
high for this cycle yet.
We're going much higher, and that's just going to drag up the altcoin market with it.
And then some key important points I pointed out on Wabi's show was that not all altcoin
categories are going to be equal in a sense.
Like last bull run, you had the layer ones going absolutely bananas and that was because we
were in a layer one bull run but we're not in a layer one uh bull run this cycle we're in a meme
coin bull run in a bitcoin bull run so only key altcoins that have the backing that have the
corporate partnerships or government partnerships those are the ones that are going to be the
superstars of the altcoin cycle. I think that and then just brand new projects that people FOMO into,
those are the ones that are going to grab the most Xs. I think a lot of the layer ones that
might have been hot last cycle are cooked, excluding the top five, let's say. But yes, I think people need to
choose their altcoin portfolios wisely because things will pump percentage, maybe get 100% 2X,
but the things that are going to do a 5X, 10X or crazy numbers, it's going to be the ones with
the biggest partnerships, the government backing and then also like brand new
projects so that's basically what we discussed on why we show yesterday but that looks good i'm
crazy crazy bullish for the first week of october so uh let's let's see what happens
by the way guys if you want to catch a replay of that stream that I did with
Ragsy I went up ahead and put it up on the nest so feel free to check that out
just click the spaces tab and right above our profile pictures you'll see a
link to that replay as well as all the other posts that myself Donnie and all
the other speakers put whenever we we do this show, guys,
we do put some things up on the nest
to give a visual presentation
of what it is we're speaking about.
That way, it adds some confluence
outside of our words.
But I think I'm going to wrap up here, guys.
I want to thank each and every single one of you that's tuned in to today's show.
But if you've been enjoying the stream for the last hour and a half and want to keep up with what we do, feel free to give us a follow.
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It's all very subjective. So if you want to keep up with the content here and want to keep up with all the shows we do, the spaces are also recorded, by the way.
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That's our TA show for those of you that like video-based content with charts and all that stuff.
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Check out his stuff.
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He's very, very, very active.
And also follow Ragsy, follow Koosh,
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I definitely would never do this show if it was just me speaking to myself.
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As I don't deem myself as a weatherman
I I would never want this show to be a weatherman type show
So I thank all the speakers for joining me here and not turning this into a weatherman type show where I'm just talking to myself. But thank you to all of you that are listening right now, whether you've been tuning
in live or you're listening to the recording. I hope you all enjoyed today's show. And if you're
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so if you guys like what we're all about feel free to tell a friend to tell a friend to give us a
follow to tune into some of our shows and uh we are also one of the fastest pages here on X that produces news.
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So if you want to follow a page, a crypto content page,
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And if you guys are looking to join an Inner Circle Alpha Group community,
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Links to all of our premium packages is in our bio.
So we have a Discord that's filled with multiple channels
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We cover all things on-chain, whether it's Seoul,
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We also have some channels for a general chat.
We also host some private live streams throughout the week, usually twice a day.
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They're also very active on the timeline.
So I want to thank you all so very much again for tuning tuning into the show supporting the brand and all that good stuff and
I'll see you all on the next stream. I'll be going live on
Twitch tomorrow at 4 30 p.m. EST
So feel free to tune into that and then of course on Wednesday tune into
Market check over on our YouTube at 11 a.m. ESC and then
later on that day I'll see you all on spaces so thank you all once again
Donnie ragsy Koosh and everybody else all of you in the audience take care have a
wonderful day and shout out to my Lord and Savior Jesus Christ for allowing me another day of health to talk markets with you all.
And I'll see you all later, guys.
Peace. Take care. Love you all. Bye-bye.
Oh, what's up, CryptoData?
Hopefully you can join the next show, man.
What's up, Data?
I see you there in the audience.
All right, guys. Peace. you there in the audience all right guys peace
