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Market Talk- MASSIVE move for crypto soon!? IWM and stocks melt up!?
Recorded: Jan. 15, 2026 Duration: 4:20:40Space Recording
Short Summary
In a lively discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs, with many expressing strong bullish sentiments. Key topics included the impact of AI on market dynamics, the significance of Ethereum's role in decentralized finance, and the importance of understanding market trends for successful investing.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.音楽 Don't look down just keep your head i know
reach the top but still you gotta learn how to keep it
Just go in the double stakes Try to wide open like a flat out of hell
You can scratch the gates
Break us the gate
Going for the back of the yard
Nothing gonna stop here, there's nothing that's wrong So close now, you're clearly at the brink Oh
Yeah, yeah, yeah Welcome to the limits.
Take me maybe one step more.
Our game's still playing.
So we better win it. Music Oh, my God. Push into the damage No one left to stand in your lane My people can't stop, you'll never be safe
But you'll be there .ご視聴ありがとうございました Welcome to The Limit Stand on the razor's head Don't look down, just keep your head
Keep the feeling
Welcome to the living
Welcome to the living
Welcome to the living what's going on boys afro what's going on man? We're going to be having big cheds here in a little bit and we're also going to have some of our other speakers like Naka and a few others later on in the show. I'm making yet another all-time high and some things on chain are popping off
on Sol as always. 6.7 coin is just blasting. You also have that
Sol Tomato AI coin also making new highs as well. But the broader crypto market is on a pullback.
Things like Avisi are also making fresh local highs. Things like
KLED are also going into price discovery. Very close, that one going into price discovery.
But where I was getting at is you have the broader crypto market kind of pulling back.
Whether it's the equity market is now catching up to the outperformance that crypto has had
on the lower time frame you have the s&p
a hair away from hitting 7 000 man um the s&p was like six points away from uh making a new
all-time high you also have the queues close to uh flipping that trend and um i think if we flip i think it's like 6 27 that's the uh december high you probably make
new all-time highs and i really think uh what we've been discussing on the show where btc just
blast through 100k is really going to shock people um and i understand that we have had some people
on the show and also some things that you might have seen on your timeline where this is being compared to the March 2022 complacency shoulder. And the context is just
so much different. You had rising inflation in that time period, month over month,
to an extreme degree. And you also had a huge monetary policy regime change which was going from
zerping qe to high interest rates and also quantitative tightening which we all saw how
that panned out in 2022 and you essentially have the uh the inverse of that occurring i see big
chuds here in the audience i'll send him an invite to speak and
the entire crypto market year to date is uh is looking pretty damn bullish you have btc
well above the uh december highs i think if you put in a weekly close above 97 i think it's off
to the races and 97 98k has kind of been that inflection point for really any huge rally that Bitcoin has had over the last year.
That was the inflection point around this time last year before the inauguration high at 110.
And also in, I think it was going into July of last year, we blasted through 97K and eventually made our way to like 118, 119, something along that line.
And here we are again, that same inflection point.
And the confluence is not only the IWM, but also the broader global indices, things like the Nikkei, things like the Euro stocks.
the Nikkei, things like the Euro stocks. And if you just zoom out and you just look at the
all-time chart for the IWM, this thing looks like the equity version of XMR, Monero. And
we've all seen what Monero has done over the last few weeks. this thing blasted through 500 and went, like, I think it went on a 45% to 50% rally in just a few days, which is insane.
But outside of markets, I saw that Nikita Bear, he's the head of X.
He's now going to eliminate all the AI slot bots and all the InfoFi stuff.
So CT might be coming back.
The old algorithm from 2023, 2022, 2021 might actually come back.
And this little niche of CT might come back, which is great for all of us, man.
My timeline was looking very disgusting for uh for
a very long time but um price action to start off the year has been nothing short of remarkable and
really as i've said on these spaces the start of the year does tend to be slow and you usually don't get any volatility at all until the end of the
month and to start off the year you guys saw we had coins like pepe rip i think like 35 to 40
percent which i mean that caused the broader all coin space in my opinion to just rip um i i kind of thought of it as a shot in
the sky like hey we're gonna rip and we're gonna shock people for 2026 and the fact that we're
seeing the iwm continue to rip um is remarkable really Like this thing is actually blasting into price discovery rather than making these small marginal highs and then dipping back down.
And as we've stated on previous shows, things like the Nikkei, things like the Eurostox, those indices do tend to peak well before the S&P 500.
I think the Nikkei peaked out a few months before the S&P.
I think the S&P topped out in January of 2022.
Same thing with the Eurostox, peaked well before the S&P as well.
And there's a saying that I've been yapping on here on these spaces over the last few
years.
I think over the last three years is history
doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes it does often rhyme and i mean since since crypto inception
um and by crypto i mean like after the ethereum tge not crypto pre-2014 where it was a tiny market, but over the last 10 years, when you see
things like the IWM and more specifically things like the Nikkei, which is really important,
and even the China index in a bull market, I mean, there's the bearish argument against crypto is very weak.
It's extremely weak because at this point, if you've been in the market for at least two to three years, you'll know that crypto is a vehicle for liquidity.
It's an indication of how global liquidity is right now.
And if you have broader markets and something that is so liquidity dependent, like the IWM, roaring into new highs, then that can only mean good things for crypto.
And we saw a couple of weeks, a couple of months back, equities were ripping while the crypto market was in shambles.
crypto market was in shambles um if you guys remember what happened on October 10th the entire
market just got absolutely hammered whereas the QQQ continued to make new highs weeks following
that um but that's kind of my opening statement here boys I got Cheds up here I want to see what
he has to say it's been a couple of months but before I do that guys I want to welcome you all
back to Market Talk brought to you by BB I'm your host wabi and i hope you all have had a fantastic
thursday today is max's birthday so if you guys are active right now just go on the purple pill
and just uh put hbd coach max or happy birthday max and uh spaces are recorded as always guys
and i just want to thank you all for showing up whether you're here listening to the audience Happy birthday, Max. And spaces are recorded as always, guys.
And I just want to thank you all for showing up,
whether you're here listening to the audience live or you're listening to the recording.
And I hope you all enjoy the show.
But if you guys can go ahead and show some love to the space
by clicking the spaces tab, once you guys do that,
you'll see that nice link above all of our profile pictures
that says x.com slash i slash spaces.
If you guys can do me a favor and show some support to the stream by clicking the like button, clicking the repost button, helps to bring the show more out into the algorithm, which hopefully does go back to the way it was a couple of years back.
And of course, that's very much appreciated
give a like retweet repost and all that good stuff so without further ado big cheds brother
what's going on man it's been uh a very very very long time since we connected man would love to
know um your thoughts on the market things that have transpired since we last spoke. I think that was since like September.
And here we are, man. We're starting off the year great. Lots of momentum. Equity markets
look tremendous. And just want to welcome you back onto the show, man. Welcome, welcome.
Oh, sorry. This is a Wendy's. Yeah, that would have been the mood
Yeah, that would have been the mood probably in the spring of 2022, maybe 2018, man.
But yeah, I'd like to have a big bacon classic.
Those are pretty good.
So everything's, yeah, that was good.
Just chilling, man.
Thanks for having me.
Just want to check in.
I appreciate your work.
I know you're creating content. I think everybody like wants content but nobody wants to create it
you know like we all want like fresh content but like you know somebody's got to do it so good work
man keep it up thanks man i i i try to curate these spaces more so of a conversation not so much of an interview i think interviews are are outdated
and they they don't really generate new audiences because because you can grow a following but if
you're not consistently adding new followers then i mean i'm sure you've seen it chad's like
some of those followers that you've gained a couple years ago might not be active now
um so it's like you always have to be consistent even through periods of uh of quiet time right
because like not not every stream uh and you've seen how big these streams get like not every
stream is going to have like 500 800 plus listeners so for me it's just all about
consistency and more than anything just showing uh genuineness and actually speaking on things
that i know about you know like i don't know shit about bonds but when it comes to altcoins and just
crypto specific stuff i i try to be well informed so you're catching these moves on like
uh like monero and some of these other high flyers or what not necessarily things like that but
things like uh like pump fun and things yeah things on solana on chain i'm just kind of
remaining low-key a bit more just just a bit more quiet because i i know like with the way the algo is if if i just spam
cash tag tickers yeah my profile can be like taken down and all that stuff and i'd rather
just remain like discretionary trading for a bit i'm kind of burned out um with all of like the
of like the tickers and all that stuff over the last few years so for now i'm just kind of
tickers and all that stuff over the last few years so for now i'm just kind of
remaining low-key and um i i think that's gonna change and i'll probably be more open once
i see bitcoin flip full bull um once it puts in at least two back-to-back weekly closes above 100k
that i would be more confident in the market at that point it's a big level it's a big
level um i'd like to see it higher before i'm like convinced the top's not in like i you know i got
to see a weekly close over one of seven five which for me was um the key level it should have held on
the weekly throwback you know when it when it broke out so um yeah i don't know i'm not as convinced
that all we need is like what you said earlier
like 97 or whatnot um you know i think a bounce here is not unexpected regardless of like
you know next couple months we could very easily still um you know be headed way lower i think it
probably is i still think the top's in um and until like we reclaim 107.5, that's what I need personally, because, you know, underside 100, underside 107.5 would be pretty normal to put in that lower high.
And just for me, the way I trade, you know, methodically, like losing the weekly 50 and like I said, you know, inability to hold 107.5, I still think we're going way lower, despite like these reasons to be bullish, despite like all this other stuff.
despite like these reasons should be bullish despite like all this other stuff um it's like
when we get a little bit of medicine with a little bit of green we get a little bit of pump up and
it's like it's good for the for the hopium and all that but i just i'm just not convinced i'm
still skeptical i'm still old man i'm still uncle chads and um you know i just got to see way more
to think this other than just a corrective move against the the current trend which is a downtrend in my view so i mean not to like ruin the party or whatever but um i just think you
know we're looking at underside tests now whether it's here 107.5 you know i think you know until
proven otherwise i think we're going to 60k and below so chad do you look at uh like the equity markets for
some of that confluence or just like no not at all no i'm not smart enough to do that
um i'm not smart enough to really do that and plus i try to not to add too much more noise like
i just think there's enough in the bitcoin chart there always kind of has been to get like a good
sense of what the trend itself is doing and like the nikkei or like what spy's doing doesn't really give me any
real indication of whether or not like bitcoin's gonna hold support or not or like how it's gonna
respond to a test or like whether i'm gonna get like volume on a breakout or whether or not like
ethereum's gonna lead or bitcoin's gonna lead or like trx is gonna start bouncing and now it's bnb
um you know there's like smarter people
who have a better system maybe who use, you know, that type of analysis. I'm just, you know, me,
the four corners of the chart. And I kind of just, maybe it's stupid, but it works pretty good for me
to just focus on what the Bitcoin chart is doing, you know, plus maybe sentiment as you know.
you know plus maybe sentiment as you know yeah so this is purely off of ta not really the
like the four-year cycle or or any of that stuff not so much not really no it's just like we lost
the weekly ma50 and we should have held the 107.5 like the the trend is badly damaged and like a
minor bounced here to like 96k 97k 100, 100K, like doesn't, that doesn't change
the weekly picture for me.
It's in a corrective state and it's going to put in a bigger picture, lower high here
from the major high.
And that's just what makes sense to me.
And I'm ready to be wrong.
I'd be happy to be wrong.
I'd love to be really wrong and have people quote tweeting me and calling me like a moron.
It's fine.
Like everybody does well if the price goes up.
But it's, you know, it's just, I think, more prudent to look at the damage that's been done to the trend.
And just based on my style, as you know, you know, classical charting and all that.
Yeah, I've been in the same position for all coins
like yeah with with all coins like you know and you buy an asset it's going up right like you
think it's it's gonna just continue to rip but yeah at some point like when you see the momentum
starting to to dwindle down that's kind of like all right i'm up
like 600 700 do i want to take my money and run do i want to take half do i want to take my initials
and yeah you start asking all these questions and then it's like you take a step back and you know
crypto is a momentum oscillator it's not really like a like a buy and hold you know by crypto
it's a game of hot potato man
you know what i mean yeah yeah but what's it like what's it like wabi to be up 600 like how does
that feel because i don't know i mean it kind of it kind of depends like are you up 600 on uh on
an asset that's that's trading at like 30 mil 40 mil market cap or are you up on something that's up from like 100 mil market cap
and it's trading at like 700 it kind of depends it kind of depends right but aren't you taking
like are you layering profit like you aren't you like scaling in and out and i am 100 a a rotationary
um trader like i i understand that when i buy anything on chain it's it's it's kind of like an
option it's like the options market there is a decay on that right oh for sure there there is a
decay and over the last three years since uh you know since ftx one to zero or whatever uh the lifespan of an altcoin most of its gains happen within the first
like two months if that there have been very few altcoins that have managed to outperform majors
uh quarter after quarter so with that being said like i'm not really a believer in any altcoin and
like when i see these stories of oh just wait until yeah uh it crosses xyz
market cap and yeah then they compare it to some other asset and it's like you're comparing it
you're comparing an asset um that has a completely different cohort of of holders
yeah so it's like i i understand ta right for like majors and all that stuff but
yeah when it comes to things on chain like these newer altcoins right um that are mainly just
launched by people locking up their own liquidity and you know launching it on pump one and all that
stuff you can't really do ta on that because it's all sentiment and hype-driven
and all that stuff.
So it is a completely different market
than how it was in 2021 and 2017, right?
Yeah.
Did you buy the Mayor Adams coin,
the New York Mayor Adams coin?
I did not.
I did not, but... I put my life savings into it man
yeah that that was a weird one man but um what is the deal what is the deal with these people
i i mean i i i guess it's just like it's um is it like a free pass to crime or what
yes it's like uh it's like a a grift a grift it's kind's kind of like a weirder version of BitConnect and stuff.
Yeah, and it just sucks away liquidity, and retail has no money
because they keep getting absolutely scammed for just no reason.
And it's just really frustrating.
Yeah, I understand that.
What about things like the Solana or Hyperliquid?
Yeah, still, Hype's rolled over, man.
I mean, Hype has been a great run, but Hype doesn't look good.
And Solana's trying to break out.
Solana looks decent, but Hype, I think, has some downside ahead of it,
in the at least medium term, you know, short-medium term.
Solana's, is like trying to
break out it's trying you know but um it may sink or swim a little bit with bitcoin here leading the
way um in terms of like dictating a little bit you know how the market goes but like for example
145 if you know solana can clear that level i think you can go long but it's like chopping
through that now it's losing that level um so it looks okay i put a couple
tweets out about it like it looks like it was trying like getting ready but um i don't i don't
see the strength i really want to see like you see what's happening with some of these alts like
monero and uh what's it called uh z cash is like ripping you know what strength looks like you know
i don't want like a halfway breakout you know i want i want to break i want to break go and um so i'd rather hold solano though than hype right now just based on the chart
yeah um for for well what you stated about like monero and all that stuff yeah um it's really
rare cheds to see something have a breakout and it trades at a market cap of over 10 billion
yeah for that not to cause at least some form of breadth in the crypto space yeah it's kind of like
a risk on signal of sorts yeah for something that big Yeah, and perhaps we see things like a small ETH BTC rally,
maybe an echo bubble of what we saw last summer.
And I understand, right, like people have PTSD with privacy coins rallying
because over the last few years, anytime privacy coins rally,
it does tend to
mark a top right like yeah in 2021 when monero had that massive rally um going into i think it
was like the second half of april um btc had topped right yeah yeah so it's like then people
see zcash and what that did a few weeks ago.
Then they see Monero and they're like, oh, man, the market's topping.
But I think the precedent is a bit different.
Like Monero is a coin that's trading well above 10 bill, which that is a ton of money, man.
That is a massive amount of money it's trading at like 13
bill market cap that's that's insane relative to its 2021 high of uh eight bill market cap this is
this is like some serious money so you know i think there might be a trickle down effect chuds
i think i mean i hope so um and the best medicine for sentiment is a little bit of green.
And, you know, if people think Bitcoin's on the way up,
they're probably more willing to risk in some of these more speculative,
you know, higher beta stuff for sure.
Yeah, I don't know, man.
You know, I'm going to remain cautious for sure.
Certainly 100K, but really 107.5.
And I think that's going to dictate, you know, happens you know with the rest of the market um i don't know man i don't know i
mean i'm watching all these ones you know for opportunities even like garbage coins that bounce
you know i'm waiting to see like even what um cosmos like was kind of turning around here i'm
like huh maybe something's going on but like you know if it can't hold like 240, I'm gonna kind of give up on that idea
So it's like, you know, you'll watch these give them a little bit of a rope, but you got to define
You got to define each trade each time you put money in risk
You got to say okay
I'm here because of this and then like if that idea fails don't like look for another reason to keep holding
You know, you just got it. You just got to take it like one shot at a time i think and um like you said posting when not everyone's watching
creating content when like numbers are low you just gotta keep plugging away man i mean there's
no other way no other way about it yeah yeah that's real um i've actually had to like mute some people a lot of people over the last 24 hours
um for what like bots and stuff or what no just like people posting like complaining content like
they just like i see and moan and all that stuff and am i on that list no no you're good man okay
cool you're good you're good um but the algo is so weird cheds like if you do if you do so much as like
bookmark anything and i mean it's over anything outside of crypto like oh boy oh boy like dude
it's so bad it's so annoying like i want to like something but then it's my whole my whole feed is
football or like like hoops i love sports but like I'm not like, you know, I want to stay finance.
And it's just algo is so annoying, you know?
Yeah.
Yeah.
That's a real thing.
I do think the AI slot bot is going away.
Yeah.
And like, I mean, I'm a crypto guy, right?
So it's like I want to root for everyone
yes um but there's this like info fi platform called kaito which was good at first right like
you guys isn't that the guy who um from from oj simpson no no kaito is a crypto oh that's kato
kato you know the guy who lived in the beach house no oh you're too young man damn you're
too young the older boomers
in the audience the other unks like me they know about kato yeah kato oh boy that was something
there you go thank you stood by him throughout the whole trial yeah he did look it up bobby
look him up kato he didn't he go on one of these where they live in a house
together? One of these real...
Oh, yeah, yeah.
I think he did that. Like Rehab or something
like that? Yeah, Celebrity Rehab
or whatever.
I mean,
I forgot to mention this, man, but
SanDisk made another all-time high.
It's an AI
hardware stock.
I've been yapping about it here on the spaces for a minute.
SNDK.
Yeah, that is crazy, man.
Pretty clean.
I really think some people in crypto should trade some stocks from time to time.
It's just like I think there's this thing that people have on
on crypto twitter where it's like if it's not trending on their timeline they're just not
gonna buy it they're not gonna buy it if it's not trending i think people are scared to actually
trade on their own yeah um like they if they don't have anyone to handhold them and someone to put
the blame on then they're just not gonna buy it
I was looking at a bunch of stuff. Yeah, that's true. That's true
But you'll be I mean, there's like biotechs or some of these small caps can have these, you know altcoin
Type moves for sure
So I mean, you know, there's the joke though. Everybody pivots from crib it to crypto to tried fire right like in like darker times
But I mean I'll trade anything.
I just don't care what it is.
Like it's numbers, it's letters or rather.
It's just a symbol.
And I mean,
Oh, that's my wife calling me.
I'm not smart enough to find the fundamental place.
I got to grab this call to Wabi.
It was good to cook up with your brother.
All right.
Yeah, no problem, man.
Thanks for coming on, Cheds. Thank you. Thank you, bro. I appreciate everybody this call to Wabi. It was good to cook up with your brother, alright? Yeah, no problem, man. Thanks for coming on, Cheds. Thank you, thank you, bro.
I appreciate it, everybody. Stay blessed. Peace.
Thank you, man. Until next time. I'll pass it over to Afro. Afro, what's going on, man?
I just saw your message about not really having much time,
dude, but dude, how have you been? It's been a minute, bro.
Yeah, I was in the hospital, dude.
Man, what went down?
So, you know, I've been losing a ton of weight.
You know, I think when you saw me, dude, I was probably like 280, 260, around there.
And I've dropped down since the summer.
I know this was like, you know, over a year ago that Lee last saw me,
but I dropped down weight tremendously, just cutting carbs and all that good stuff.
And I didn't know you had to take probiotics whenever you're, you know,
fasting and stuff like that.
And I didn't think about any of that.
So I got like this really bad bacterial bloom and I got to get like a scope done
And I got to get like a scope done just to make sure I don't have an ulcer
just to make sure I don't have an ulcer.
It always happens whenever you know, I think I've mentioned here plenty of times that
I paid off all my debts on January 2
officially
So I don't incur some some cap gains
At least I don't have to pay them until next year, but
Whenever you whenever something big in life
happens you know you typically get hit with this mike tyson one-two punch and um it's it's real
so you know uh i had to go through all that thankfully you know thankfully i'm good you
know just uh taking some some meds and you know eating a little bit um
eating a little bit more more often and that's basically you know kind of where i've been
i've been kind of i've been actually starting to get back into you know getting some trades done
i'm super happy that monero is finally having its day in the sun um i think it wholeheartedly deserves to be higher but uh ultimately you know
it's it's getting delisted off of the most majority of exchanges other than i think kraken
but i think they stopped doing something on futures with them um or maybe you can't do perps on on
kraken anymore uh with monero but regardless um i was kind of upset about and i was kind of being a
hater with this whole zcash monero thing and i'll absolutely gravedance on on zcash because
it was never private you know privacy is not really optional it shouldn't be optional it
should be made inherent and you know um i think you already know some from wabi and friend spaces
back in the day you know i i loved everything about monero and i can i can kind of go on about
about how to onboard off board the right way you can use monero unfortunately i think majestic bank
is is no longer uh no longer i think they got they got cut by biden or maybe uh the euros or something like that but um they went out through uh regulation
but uh i'm glad man uh good crypto deserves to stay around and i think the the the ethos of of
crypto you know being cypherpunk it really found its home in monero and um you know, I think what is it right now like seven something right now, maybe eight
Yeah, Monero right now is uh, i'm more so looking at like the the uh the market cap, but yeah
It is down like 10% trading right below
um 700 and
I will say you're probably right when privacy coins pump it kind of usually signals
kind of you know the end of things but are the or you know very very late cycle you know top
top action but I think the whole point of my spiel is that there's too much vaporware here
in the space as everybody already knows and Monero is one of those things that is absolutely not vaporware.
So certainly hope that other projects that, you know,
are all about privacy, like rail gun, I hope they get their,
their stuff together and, and they're able to, you know, do something more.
And hopefully this, you know,
incentivizes people who are trying to do something EVM and private to, you know, do so.
Right. But we'll see. Right. The market market will will call for it eventually.
I'm sure. Yeah. And I know the Monero pump seems huge, but since the April lows, there have been dude there have been so many stocks that
have outperformed the narrow uh like a hood uh like an iron and it's it's almost as if like
this current version of ct is just always late to the trend and i think they also forget that
silver is also up the same amount. Yeah, roughly the same amount.
Maybe a little bit less.
I think silver is actually up like three and a half X since the April low.
And Monero is up like four.
But nonetheless, man, it's been a tremendous a tremendous uh window of opportunity
since those april lows it's just that like some assets have been have been laggards and i mean
dude it's it's so hard for me to it's so hard for me to see like huge imminent downside when i see
a coin in crypto blasting through 10 billion it's usually an
indication that something massive is going to happen uh is going to happen to the all coin
space even if it's just like a small complacency rally um so that's what i have to say about that
but i guess like if i want to take the other side it would be when Hyperliquid was pumping in December of 2024.
Hyperliquid peaked out at 11 bill going into Christmas of that year.
And not much happened in the market after that.
The market peaked shortly after that.
Well, we all know what happened there.
Yeah, it all went to kingdom come after that.
And everything just got absolutely shreked, man.
I think, dude, but the difference is you didn't have all these other things happening, right?
With the Nikkei, Eurostox, and all of that. And I think time, time is going to be the ultimate arbiter
of truth. Um, and what I mean by that is like, if we range between 93 and 96, just as much as we
ranged between 82 and 80 and 86, I think that's going to drive people nuts and that's
going to be indicative of uh of like the trends being bullish um and i don't really care if i'm
wrong on that because i i don't think i have been wrong i think i've done a great job at pivoting in
every single inflection point and we've called practically every single trend on chain
on this show but this price action just it kind of reminds me of uh at this point now that we've
broken out of the december high and we're above 94 it reminds me of like q4 of uh of 2023 in a way it's just this like slow trajectory upwards and we're starting to see
rip but i certainly hope you're right dude i i would love to also be bullish but um something
that i was going to add on when when chad talking was, you know, you can just check, you know, a couple things.
When I trade, I also use the VRVP.
And I was seeing that, like, we're kind of stuck in a void right now, you know, 97 through 101K.
So, you know, if we blast through that up to 101, 103, and then, you know, higher from there.
But it's absolutely like, um,
you've got to hold something above that. So I hope we do. I think,
I think for everybody though, it's, it's probably, you know,
different structure, different folks, obviously, but, um, you know,
right now for me, man, I have, you know,
quite a bit of extra money coming in. So I'm just,
I'm looking just to get back into the market,
you know,
little by little and cash is always a position too.
So we'll,
we'll see,
you know,
not trying to time bottoms or,
or sell tops.
But just trying to build that,
that position over time and,
and get ready for the next cycle.
You know what I mean?
The next cycle. Well, you know what i mean you know what i mean yeah um geez lighter is getting its ass handed to it man um that is
that is a death spiral chart man that is a death spiral chart that community is probably
well they have a very toxic community insanely toxic community um i hopped on a space
like a lighter community space i'm not going to say who it was because like the space is recorded but like it was probably like the most toxic community
that i've ever stepped into um since like the solana meme coin craze um in the summer of 2024
with some of those communities or like they would launch a ticker that already existed on ETH, for example, some of those communities,
probably one of the most toxic, like ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever.
But it's just like a hyperliquid derivative, man. That's all Lighter is. It's a hyperliquid
derivative. And they did an airdrop campaign and you already know what happens with
a lot of these projects where they have like airdrop incentives the chain activity completely
dies off after the airdrop it's not like a hyperliquid that's been around for years um before
before the token was even dropped and i I think Glider actually did a VC raise
where there's Hyperliquid.
I don't think they did VC raise.
Didn't they partner up with like Robinhood
or something like that to be there?
You know, have their platform.
One of these guys did.
I don't know if it was Hyperliquid itself
or if it was...
There's too many Perpdexes, dude. There's way too many way too many yeah i mean it all started with gmx didn't it that was
like the original uh gmx is so expensive though that was the hardest part about it but it was
one of the first well you have dydx too damn man that's yeah that's og yeah that's like
That's OG.
Yeah.
That's like early 2021, bro.
Dude, still do those rebates.
Yeah, it's like early 2021, late 2020, something like that.
That's when DYDX was relevant, I guess.
yeah dude lighter is just uh the fighter is just a beneficiary of robin hood throwing money um
Yeah, dude.
at crypto products they're not i don't think they're really partnered i think robinhood just
cut them a sponsor check or something like that that's what partnerships are man
it's just yeah it's just um transactional that's what it is it's it's all transactional man
you know i do i do if can i shill uh my buddy's decks i mean it's it's his own decks but it's it's
really good he he made it all by himself uh would you would you mind if i show his decks does it
have a ticker does not have a ticker no there is no token he just made a dex so that
people could actually trade and not get screwed over all the time by getting counter traded
against was it built on orderly it was built on orderly yes sir
dang dude order isn't orderly like the clod of uh of crypto where you can just like
Isn't orderly like the clod of crypto where you can just like build any decks with a few clicks of a button?
Hey, man, it works.
And I've gotten really good feels on it.
Anytime I need to add, you know, I can literally talk to him about anything and say, hey, can we add this?
Because I want to bid on this.
I don't see it.
As long as it's on the orderly network, he puts that thing on, dude,
and he's really responsive.
So he actually – I know that he's talking with some people to –
he's talking with some VCs potentially to do something.
But I think he's got some – he's a smart dude.
He's part of my Discord.
He's just a really smart guy and a good guy at that.
Does it have heavy liquidity?
It does.
Go ahead, man.
It says scalptor, scalptor decks.
Z S E A L P T U R scalptor, scalptor.xyz.
It's, it's, it's good, man. It's for,
for what it is and what you want to use it for. Like I really enjoy it.
I like it
i think that i hope i hope the product is better than the name
yeah that that you know um i will say it's a one-man team right but
you know you you can do what you need on it you can do what you need on it that's yeah i mean that
that is a terrible lane like
legitimately terrible well it's wonderful that it's not mine and it's not yours either but
appreciate it not not naka bro you should build uh you should build something on claude man if
there's anyone that can build an ai product for crypto that has a ticker with insane tokenomics it's probably you bro
I'm going to build
NACA decks
it's going to be a perp decks
it's going to be launching on Ethereum
why E?
well our unique
selling point is going to be
you can only short
did you flip
bear snocker or something like that?
No, I'm
joking. It's a joke. But that would be the
USP. You can only short. The long
button doesn't work. It's just like shorts
only. I think
there's actually a platform
where that's all you can do.
It's like inverse pump fun
where you can actually dump i'm pretty sure
like dump oh so you could just like shit so you could just short all the shit coins to zero like
literally all the fucking wait wait wait what's it called i i saw it a long time ago i cannot
remember it's like dump fun or something like that.
You can just short all the shit coins to zero.
There's no liquidity, though.
Nice.
That is hilarious.
But I'm still bullish on Monero.
What do you guys think of me tripling down on my monero position here
man i i hope you make some money bro i do i'm not gonna i'm not gonna talk bad on another man's
position um wouldn't you be fucking your cost basis um well monero's at 670 and my initial buys were like 620 or something uh because i bought
like the day after the breakout so i wouldn't really be fucking it that money bro monero is
is is uh locally bottomed at 670 and 6.7 coin is up on the day man i got a lot of crap for like
being bullish on that coin, man.
A few days ago, believe it or not. Like I went on some weird Web3 space and I'm like, yeah, if you're bullish on something like you want to buy buy things that are still trending and are bouncing off of their lows.
off of their lows um and here we are like if on chain is going to ramp up dude then things like
And here we are.
pump and the six seven coin are probably going to trend really hard i like that tomato coin too man
have you checked that out naka we talked about it i think um when you came back on on uh on friday
i believe what's what what's it called what's it called tomato like soul the tomato
so basically it's like this ai growing this tomato and um i think some guys from anthropic
like commented under the posts and like they're sharing it also and um yeah it's like
sharing it also and um yeah it's like it's kind of like another iteration of farcoin
i guess where it's like the concept of it seems ridiculous and it's like oh it's another shitter
right but isn't everything a shitter in crypto and pretty much every single way so yeah there's
also some big brain stuff but i really don't want to come off as a show whatever
i'm just saying like there are some things going on on chain that are interesting but not to the
point where like i'm gonna post about it um i really don't want like any reply guys to like
go under my post and say oh it's down 10 down 10% on the day or whatever, which it's not.
It actually made a new high.
But, like, when you show tickers right outside of majors, I don't know what it is,
but, like, you get this army of bots, this army of reply guys,
and, like, once the momentum stops, you know, it's like, oh, like,
what's this coin doing? Like, oh, you were sharing it a few weeks ago know, it's like, oh, what's this coin doing?
Like, oh, you were sharing it a few weeks ago, and it's like, I'd rather just not deal with that anymore.
At least not right now.
Just not right now, because I think you actually need BTC above 100K.
I think you need Sol above 180.
ETH, who cares, but maybe above 3 800 i would say right um
for ceilings to be raised and for market-wide breadth rather than like a few select tickers
and at least for me to be confident enough to like put some tickers out there um
like back when like aster and all that stuff was trending that was that was a great time dude that
was a great time but liquidity is just it's just a bit different now man um but uh yeah yeah naka
you should probably get some monad bro to be honest it's probably a good
buy here man we'll come back in like two years you reckon probably i come back in like two years
man it'll probably be yeah a bit um it could be i mean the thing is if we do go into a bear market
you don't want to be holding a vc coin um the reason i'm the reason i'm kind of like
allowing myself to be a bull with um monero is because it's not a vc coin right like it's not
it's not really part it's crypto but it's not really part of the crypto ecosystem um
you know so like i mean monad like you know monad only has 10 mean, Monad, like, you know, Monad only has 10% of its coins actually
floating at the moment. So it's like, still it's FDV is 10 X bigger than its market cap.
And that's just kind of rough going into what I think is a bear market. Like if I didn't think
this was a bear market, I'd be more interested, but, um, it's just very dangerous, right? It's
very dangerous. Like there's also like there's also like there's
there's so many coins that i like that i thought the concept was cool from the 2021 run and you
know i basically ended up selling all of them basically and pretty much all of them went minus
90 to minus 95 um you know the market doesn't care about your coin it doesn't care about your narrative
it only cares whether there are more buyers than sellers or more sellers than buyers
david you had your hand up man how are you man how are you holding up
i'm doing fine a little better than the other day are you able to hear me yeah yeah loud and clear well
i'm glad you're doing better man yeah sounds like you were going through a really rough time
no i mean that the the the doctor looks at the the readings and he says oh it's not the guy said
i i could have used another angle he said because, because I wanted to get around the bone.
Anyway, nothing acute, and we'll see what happens in a month.
Every time I go on my elevator, I lose, if I walk in the dog,
and I come in, I lose the spaces, so that's why I drop down, I come back up.
back up. Anyway, so
Anyway, so just a couple things, I'll let you guys get going.
just a couple things. I'll let you guys get going.
We've had so much interference
for the government holding
the dollar down.
And the problem is, you start looking around the
world, there's 6.5 billion people
and their currencies are at all-time lows,
which means they are siphoning away
our inflation. They're not going to
be able to buy commodities. They're not going to be able
to buy crude oil, coal to make the cement for the tall buildings. Indonesia, all-time low today. India,
all-time low today. That's 2 billion people right there. And the curve is flattening.
You know, people most often think if you're slowing the economy, the Fed's got to cut more,
you steeper the curve. Well, what's the opposite of that? 5.4% GDP.
We're probably going to be up from the current Atlanta Fed after today's 199.
I mean, how are they going to cut?
How's Powell going to be forced to cut with under 200,000 jobs and falling and strong growth?
So you flatten this curve, and where did mortgages go?
We got to a 562 for a seven-year fixed rate, six-month adjustable.
That's three basis points from a three-year low.
The 30-year fix, that's 604 or so.
We're at the lows, And you get a flatter curve, and you got so many mortgages
down low that people don't want to refinance, you're going to sweep that rate, and you're
going to flatten that curve pretty damn hard. If you take the five-year to the 10-year,
which is where a lot of mortgages are hedged by levered buyers, it's flattening. It's getting
ready to break down five more basis points goodbye
charlie mortgage rates drop 50 basis points at a flash because there's a special thing in mortgages
you have everyone gather all the mortgages they put in a pool and they sell it off to the buyers
there's just this natural thing that when you start going above 100, which is the current one, nobody wants those.
Because then you refinance, you lose money.
So the bottom line is mortgage rates are looking like they want to go a lot lower.
And you saw the gap open in the market today on the 500 billion from Taiwan and then the Taiwan story.
And we closed at the low.
You started the day with NASDAQ up twice as much as the S&P. Yesterday, the NASDAQ, I mean
the NASDAQ 100, yesterday was twice as weak as the S&P and we finished the day. They were basically
a push. If you look at the NASDAQ divided by the S&P, it's basically, that's called innovation
inflation. It's the expansion of tech over the regular stuff.
We're at the lows since the second rate cut of this year,
and it's getting worse.
And you look at Microsoft, you look at Adobe,
you look at Salesforce.
You know, Brad Gerster from Altimeter,
the guy with the performative hair
and the performative black T-shirt who thinks he's
the greatest things that ever lived, he started his career in November of 2008, the exact
law of the NASDAQ.
And when the Fed started adding, you know, 10 times the balance sheet, 890 billion to
8.9 trillion.
And he's saying, oh, software at 14 times, I like it here, you know,
last year, two years ago, it's five times sales. It's going lower. And if you look at these names
like Amazon and Meta, you look at Google, you look at Microsoft and Apple, I call it Mama.
and Apple. I call it Mama. Mama versus the NASDAQ 100. Amazon's at a 2017 level.
The money is leaving these guys and their market cap waited and other things look okay.
But we're losing liquidity. And you look at the volatility ratio between NASDAQ.
This is some of the work I do in my spaces.
NASDAQ volatility is rising versus the S&P.
It's about to get a cross volatility golden cross.
On a weekly, it's already on a daily.
That is the measurement of deterioration of liquidity.
That's the distillation of evaporation of liquidity. If look at those two you go back to dot-com
then the nasdaq volatility was more than twice as high as the the s p volatility the vix
and the problem with that is we're probably not going to stop at double this time. We'll probably stop at triple.
Because you have this passive money, and it's going to have to buy these low beta stocks.
And there's no stock there.
There's nothing available.
They're so small.
Two and a half for the utilities, four, eight for the staples, nine, six for the healthcare. That's 19.2% of the market.
Tech and com, it's 50%.
They come in and the passive money starts flowing.
And what happens when you start recognizing that, hey,
these three sectors will benefit a lot from tech?
And then you bring in some brilliant tech people and you say, you know what?
Our stock is going up fast.
Let us pay you in stock. What happens when
the low beta stocks start paying in stock
and their earnings start to grow like bananas?
Because they don't actually have to pay cash.
You're just going to suck
all that money out of tech.
And it's going to drive up the dollar.
So we're starting to see
an accelerated decline
where when they cut rates, it doesn't help.
And now we're growing like crazy bananas, you know?
And so you'll see a lot of these, you know, these tech alts, you know,
just melting up, doubling of the memory stuff
because of some stories about shortages in the last, you know, month.
But the software is getting assassinated
by these large language
models that are just getting better.
You see Adobe anytime soon?
It's five year low.
Salesforce?
There's nobody getting hired.
Nobody's getting fired, but nobody's getting hired.
Well, that's because their boats
too, David, are disintegrating with
anthropology. That's exactly what we're talking about. Brilliant. Exactly. But how's that going to stop?
There's a lot of money trapping.
It's not. You're getting a repricing across the board.
How about Walmart versus Amazon? That's not looking so pretty for Amazon. How is it?
No money's going from one place to the other.
And so the problem is you're going to annihilate a lot of this tech money.
It's 2000.
You know, in 2008, when you had the Lehman Brothers rug pulled,
you have to remember the NASDAQ fell 83.6 versus only 49.9.
So 84 versus 50.
Okay, NASDAQ fell 84, S&P 50.
You get to the GFC, these people have really rationalized.
So when you get to the peak, you know, the NASDAQ bottoms at 800, the NASDAQ 100.
It doubles.
It only goes down to 1,000, 1,018.
It was up 25% from its low.
The S&P fell 15%
below its 2002
770.
So the S&P was down 57.
Nasdaq was only down 50.
Then you're off to the races.
But there was a lot
of trouble there. A lot of
air. And you know,
when you have Microsoft
six month low, but you have Microsoft, six-month low,
but you have, you know, Adobe and the other software, how much, you can't short Adobe down
five to buy Microsoft. It's too cheap. You know, you're not getting paid enough for all that risk.
So you don't have the up escalator, the source of funds to hold up
Meta and Microsoft, Amazon and Apple. And with these emerging markets looking like such trash,
I mean, this is 1997 currency love. Korea couldn't cut last night. I don't know if you know,
Korea didn't cut yesterday. People thought they would.
They can't. They had to intervene over the new years. Their currency is in free fall going back
to 1997. Inflation's getting bad over there because the currency's falling apart. So they're
not going to be buying as many Apple iPhones. So you're starting to see more money leave there,
go to other places, and it's opportunity. Just look what's working.
Don't fight. Don't invest in the rearview mirror. You know, Wabi just said, look at a stock once in
a while. Look at something going up. Don't be shy. You know, it's not a crime if something's going up
to get aboard a little. But if you're starting to see the yield curve flat, because we have too much growth,
and if you don't remember or you hadn't read, China is exporting $1.2 trillion last year.
And a lot less of the normal came to us.
That's why our trade deficit collapsed down to 29 billion last month. We're
growing at 5.3 according to Atlanta Fed down from 5.4. They'll probably write that up to 5.6, 5.7.
China's not sending us their goods and they're sending out more goods. What does that mean?
They are emptying the economies in South America and in Europe. They're just cutting the price to get the goods
out. What's that going to do over there? They have to cut rates. They got no growth in Europe
other than a couple of bombs they want to build. Remember, they're not going to Ukraine, Germany.
They want to go to Greenland to protect against Trump, not to protect against Putin.
predicts against food. So we're experiencing a deterioration of liquidity. Tech volatility is
rising. And that means dealers are backing away. They're not selling it. They are up to here in
short volatility, which means they're short gamma, which means the market goes up. They get hurt,
and they got to buy. The market goes down. They get hurt, they got to sell. But when you have a falling market, when you have underperforming markets that are doing worse
than the S&P, and that money's flowing out, you know, and then take a look at Bitcoin today.
I don't know what time I was up this morning, maybe it's like 4.35. I happened to get the screenshot. 39.22 on Bitcoin volatility.
A new low since October 9. You're losing all the volatility. You're going to lose the traders.
They moved over to silver. Bitcoin went up, it's stalling, but its volatility keeps on making
fresh lows. And the lowest monthly close of all time,
it's like 35-ish.
We got to 39.22.
Yeah, but Bitcoin vol is on a long-term downtrend, right?
Yeah, absolutely.
That just means fewer people are willing to do the chaos
and more people want to do the harvest.
And that makes it uninteresting.
Well, I mean,
I think it's just a sort of
artifact of
the adoption, right?
You got it, buddy. You nailed it.
Yeah, when Bitcoin
is very small, it could be very volatile
because it only has like a million
dollar market cap.
If it goes on the news, suddenly the market cap goes up to like a million dollar market cap. You know, if it goes on the news,
suddenly the market cap goes up to like 25%.
It could move 25% in a day in a day.
That's Bitcoin, not an alt.
Exactly.
And it can't do that now
because it has like, you know,
a trillion dollar market cap,
two trillion dollar market cap.
There just isn't enough money in the world to move that.
So they'll short that by the alts.
But at times when that's in a trend to go lower, it'll kind of create a vacuum because you can't short a falling Bitcoin to buy an alt. You can short a stable Bitcoin, a rising Bitcoin, but you need to make sure that there's liquidity showing up.
But at this level, I mean, we're at 69 on 11.10 of 21, you know, more than four years ago.
And if you adjust for, you know, add 10% for inflation, you're talking about 75.
And that's what sailors numbers.
I did want to talk about one thing.
I know I went on for a while, but I want to talk about one thing.
It's very, very important.
Okay.
You know, I know a little about how converts work, credit default swaps, capital structure.
I want to explain what Saylor's doing.
One second.
Hold on. Hold on. Hold on.
Oh, thank you.
Is this me?
Oh, no, it's not me.
No, I ordered something.
It said it's coming tomorrow.
It was not for me.
It's somebody else.
Okay.
So I just want to run through what Saylor's doing and why it's such a disaster micro strategy.
He fell 90.8% his company from May 10th of 2000 to April 17th of 2000, 38 days.
I posted it many times.
It was from the New York Times business section.
He can't sell his converts anymore.
It's too dilutive.
So he came up with this idea, let me sell some preferreds.
He's had to raise the yields on the preferreds
to try to get them to kind of stay anywhere in the range of par.
But what people do not understand is the more preferreds he sells,
he is driving a wedge in the capital structure between the equity and the debt.
And what does that mean?
When Oracle did their deal and they had this non-transparent order
that Safra Katz, Undo Katz were getting $300 billion of
orders and it turns out it was Sam
from Sam Altman's Fables and now
she's being sued as I said she would be sued
for that non-transparent disclosure.
You only had $18 billion
of debt financing and the
credit default swap traders just, they were
shorting Oracle to hedge
off that, and I like Larry Ellison, but
they were shorting the stock to hedge off that, and I like Larry Ellison, but they were shorting the stock
to hedge off the risk of
a breakdown
of the company.
They took the credits
default swaps
from 50 to almost 200.
Well, that's
when you have the straight debt. What's
happening here is he's selling
all of these preferreds. How do you hedge your preferred? You hedge a bond with stock. You're going to hedge
preferreds with stock. So what's going to happen is he is going to shove too many of these wedges
in there, too many of these preferreds in there, and people are just going to start shorting the
stock against the preferreds. And then he's going to end up driving microstrategy to a discount to
the coin. And at 20% or 25%, the board will either get rid of sailor or make it that the
CEO buys the stock in by selling coin. They got no choice. It would be complete malpractice.
Someone,
what is it, Saba,
what's his name, the guy who does the closed-end funds,
oh, the name just,
it's Saba Capital is
the firm.
He does all the
hostile takeovers
of the closed-end fund to get rid of the discount
there will be people remember uh what's his name chenos was shorting uh micro strategy at three
times bitcoin and he says why wouldn't i just buy the bitcoin and short the micro strategy well guess
what that worked so he closed out but if you take all these converts, and then you keep on selling them,
and then people start funding them by shorting your micro strategy,
and you take micro strategy down, you'll get a hostile takeover.
And they will liquidate all those coins to close that gap.
So the problem is it's not free.
In local stability, they can issue all these preferreds.
But as prices go down, they will get hedged and they will drive, in all likelihood, MicroStrategy to a discount.
And then those 687,000 coins, which you will try to top off at 700, they're going to get separated
from the company. So when you have all these people on the internet saying, oh, it's so great,
it's the greatest thing ever, they're bots, whether BOT or BOUGHD, that are getting ad dollars.
But there's something special about, you know, when you sell something and the market doesn't really want it and you reconfigure it, oh, it's a preferred, but it's not guaranteed, we raise the money.
It's not going to work when you have any of this pressure
that i call him jonathan carl i was listening to this guy ched the first guy he sounds like
jonathan call from abc i thought i was listening to abc news uh but he's negative he says it's not
trading well bitcoin you take that lower you start getting some pressure on these converts, on these preferreds, and then you're going to end up having selling pressure on strategy.
And at some point, they'll put enough pressure on it's only a $50, $60 billion company.
They'll get those coins shaken loose, and that's not going to be pretty.
be pretty. But it creates a lot of opportunity
But it creates a lot of opportunity when you have these down waves.
when you have these down waves.
When it stops going down for a bounce,
that should be like a quick air
pocket to
short that in a rise and that money will
go into the alts. So you get these
alt weekends instead of alt
seasons. That's what I have
to say.
And Prometheus, feel free to follow that up man i don't think uh yeah you've had the chance to be sure um i gotta go in here i gotta go into the bank here pretty soon but um thanks a lot for me
no it's all going into a house so um with that being said i i mean i tend to agree with a lot of the points said
um there's been this discussion and tommy and i one of the other analysts on bb he he has been
mentioning you know this and he loves being on the like super like there's the tail move and then beyond that there's tommy right so tommy
sits on the like utmost extremes um whenever he's convicted and you know uh you know upside or
downside or whatever that may be oh i thought of a crime i thought of a crime you said convicted
yes yeah uh oh i did say convicted whenever he has conviction. No, but so him and I've been
talking and he's been saying, you know, it's kind of consensus at this point. Bitcoin is going to
put in some form of shoulder, you know, and typically when you get consensus within the
market, it's generally not the most ideal position to necessarily be taking. Sometimes it works out,
sometimes it doesn't, right? That's markets for you. But with that being said, I still lean within the kind of shoulder camp.
The big question for me right now is, I'm in one of two camps, right? And it's either you get
everybody piled back into this market, and you like rip this thing up to like 108 in everybody's face.
And we had mentioned the variable time on the live stream today on YouTube.
And what time, time is a finicky, finicky little bitch sometimes, right?
And if you're able to really, because a lot of people within this market,
one, have either been liquidated and that happened on 1010.
Two, they sold or, you know,
and are waiting to get back into the market or three, they never sold and they're down bad,
right? So what from a psychological perspective could you do in relation to time that would
really, let's just say, get the juices flowing. You create what's called a lockout rally and you
get this move. You could get a move up to like 108.
And you have then created a scenario where the people that have been holding the entire time now feel exuberated or they feel exuberance of the market that are looking to buy back lower, feeling tremendous amounts of FOMO because it happened in a very short period of time.
And because of that, you're creating extremely strong emotion to get people allocated back into the market.
Then three, these people that are in the shoulder camps, you've probably gone beyond their invalidations at that point of their lines in the sand of how high the shoulder can go before they're like, okay, we're bullish again and we need to be getting back into the market.
David, I see your hand up.
What's up?
You can talk.
You don't have to put your hand up.
There's something that's very important that just came out that you can't ignore.
that just came out that you can't ignore.
The move index, which is the volatility curve
for the treasuries, it didn't just go
to a new five-year low.
It's now less than $3 from a dark cross
and we're less than $5 from just before
the global financial crisis.
And what does this mean?
This means that as volatility goes down in the bond, in the treasury market, one of two
things happen.
Either rates are going massively lower or massively higher because you got everyone
short the volatility and half of the people are wrong.
The dealers are just screwed.
And then you got the whole mortgage market. So in this case, you have bonds down for five years.
The probability is much more that rates are going to go lower and not higher.
And the problem with that is that starts to cause mortgage activity to pick up,
which is great for rocket mortgage and home builders and the interest rate sensitive.
We need supply
though david there's no there's no supply like that's no supply of what single families
single families so that means that that means the price has to it's been anemic that means the price
has to go that means the price has to go up yeah i know i mean it's going to be great for companies
but i mean i mean at the end of the day is that is that i mean mortgages are i mean the
average cost of a home i mean this is going to go up right no but the mortgage rate was three basis
points from a three-year low the adjustable is 562 on the 76 and the five-year one year is probably
540 right now and with this move index coming in so hard, getting ready for a dark cross, I don't like saying death cross, you're talking about dropping 100 basis points in mortgage rates in six months.
Another 100 basis points three months later.
And when you have a –
Hey, David.
David, I hate to interrupt you.
I have like five minutes here.
I'm just going to finish my point real quick.
What I was saying earlier, right?
I'm still in the camp that you're forming a shoulder.
It's very difficult for me to see.
Otherwise, I've seen what I've seen and I cannot unsee what I've seen.
What do I mean by that?
Your high timeframe divergences on your momentum oscillators, on, you know, weekly candles
or on your weekly candlesticks, on your monthliesators, on, you know, weekly candles or on your weekly
candlesticks on your monthlies. I cannot ignore that, right? I view the price above kind of like
110 as you created essentially, you know, weeks and weeks and weeks worth of supply.
Now, localized price action. I understand from, if you take a fixed volume
profile and you look at kind of the volume that's been done over the past 12 months,
we are right at that, right at the kind of point of control of that, right? Sitting at 96,
specifically. I've been mentioning the Discord. If you get weekly closes above that,
to me, then I lean rotational. And rotational means I'm targeting then the value area high,
which sits around 108.
We see how we react out of that.
Within that area, you have a very important indicator
that I like to watch,
and that is your 365-day rolling VWAP at 100K.
So you have a lot of resistance to chew through.
You have a lot of supply overhead to chew through and
the only way that i see us truly out of this you know the instance because cheds had mentioned
structure and or trend excuse me it looks awful structure looks horrendous right you're underneath
significant key uh points within the chart that you have to that historically you have to have
had remained above to remain bullish for significant periods of time. If you get above them, that's a good sign.
But to remain above them, I think you need some serious, serious intervention from Trump and from
the administration that in turn would make who rich and wealthy. And what I mean by this is
make middle class, make the people that actually transact within this market in a meaningful way,
make them, if they're able to make that demographic wealthy again, right? And I don't
mean by putting a ton of money in their pockets. What I mean is stabilize the cost of living,
flatten out the cost of living curve
in relation to your annual,
into the average median income, right?
Flatten that, right?
If they can flatten that,
if they intervene in these markets
in a big, big, big way,
you know, I have no problem expecting higher prices.
But until then, I have a really tough time
just from a price perspective,
seeing these charts
go on to set new all time highs. And with the lows that are currently in, they're ugly. They're
ugly. And lows that are high timeframe pivot lows that look like this are ones in which price never,
ever, ever visits again. So you have, I'm in one of two camps right this is a shoulder and you know we're
going to be seeing lower prices without a doubt or for whatever reason we see massive massive
massive intervention like beyond what people think possible and we never ever see these prices again
with that being said i gotta go appreciate you evan what's up bryce how are you requests how are you man hey yeah yeah it was a little late
late this time it's getting yeah it went a little long at the gym but uh yeah i mean basically i
think this is like one of the first places as we kind of get um really close to that like 50 weekly
moving average that we were talking about yesterday for Bitcoin.
You know, I mean, I think that I'll be I think that, you know, I'm more in the like for me,
theist was saying, you know, the shoulder kind of theory, the theory that I mean,
obviously, there's one of two things are going to happen as always, you know, you're either going to
keep going upward or you're going to reject from one of these one of these places um and my view is that like probably like you're hitting an
EMA um or excuse me an SMA right now on like the two day but really the daily um oh yeah daily 50
or above that meant to say the weekly my bad but the weekly 50 you're almost there that currently
is that around 101 probably hit that right at 100 so you know I think despite the view of the masses
that the masses are always wrong.
I think the masses are right that you will come up to 100.
But the question is, can you break through?
I don't think it's very likely.
I think that we're in a rhyme to a certain extent with 2022, where energy kind of outperforms
everything for at least a few months.
I don't think it's going to be as crazy as 2022, where everything really, you know, goes
down so much like S&P 500, all that.
But I do think
a milder version of that where energy kind of has its run you know i think uranium
people have mentioned it for the past few days i think that's got a good shot of getting back up
to like it's um what is it like 2011 highs similar to kind of what silver did but you know i mean
sequel is always worse than the original you're going to probably not see anything do, go as crazy as silver has gone.
But I still think you got definitely some momentum there to keep recovering from 15 years ago,
which is kind of crazy to think about how long these things take sometimes.
But if you're in it at the right time, that works.
time that works so that's kind of the next six a month eight month um area the other um etf lxe
So that's kind of the next six-month, eight-month area.
that looks good you know compared to nasdaq compared to s p500 compared to a lot of things
right now even gold to a certain extent so i would think that people were going to be taking profits
in the gold i mean i would hope that maybe some of that money goes into all coins some of that
money goes into bitcoin i think it will but probably not enough to really, you know, bring on the Apple run. So I think it's going to be more of an energy
centric bull market probably until the summer. I think in terms of interest rates, like I don't
think it's going to be that extreme is what some people think, you know, coming down, I don't know,
200 basis, 200 basis points or anything like that. I mean, I could see 50 basis points,
you know, that type of
thing you would need asset prices to really go down i think to to go to have your average 30
year mortgage below like 5.5 but i think you can get there um kind of the middle of the year and
i think that'll probably spike back up you know those yields will probably come back up a little
bit as things recover um probably later this or the next year. I know it is
kind of, you know, like clockwork maybe with the first like a little bit, but I think the recovery
is going to be a little bit earlier. And I think things bottom out a little bit earlier every time.
I mean, keep in mind, Ethereum bottomed out in June of 2022. It could bottom out in May of 2026
this year at maybe 1800 to 2000, which I think would be a really, you know,
golden point to get in.
So I think it's like if you're an aggregating, you know, kind of investor like I am with
kind of my long-term bags, I mean, I have, you know, a decent position that I got in
energy pretty recently.
I've been, I've been in gold.
I'll be completely honest.
I completely missed out on silver.
I didn't think that would go as crazy as it did, but got some uranium, got some LXE, Oxnall Petroleum, trying to hold those, you know, four to six to eight months, you know,
those areas, and then converting into Ethereum, which would be probably my main crypto pick,
1800 to 2000, those areas, and then some other crypto picks, you know, hopefully in the summer,
some good deals to convert that into. And let's say energy, you know, let's say I'm completely wrong. Let's say energy doesn't do as much. Maybe it goes down
a little bit or something or it's just sideways. I'm completely fine with that. You know,
most of these aggregate trades I do, you know, do work out. So there's going to be some that
don't do too well. But I still think getting in good deals, you know, on Bitcoin ETH and all that
is what I'm looking for. And I think that the last thing I'll say here is like on Bitcoin,
I really like EMAs like on your three-day.
Once those turn bright again, I know, you know, if you know, you know,
with EMAs, once those turn bright again,
that's a good place to really get in whatever that may be.
I don't think that's going to be at least until another, you know,
four to six months, kind of those areas,
at least maybe closer to the end of the year.
But that's the place where I would convert a lot of more safer stuff, energy, you know, S&P 500 bonds, that type of stuff
into the crypto market. So it's kind of that patience game. But I do think if you look at
XLE versus Bitcoin, I mean, that could outperform it by maybe 100% over the next four to six months.
So potentially, you know, allocating a little bit of bitcoin into that or bring a little bit of bitcoin into that maybe could double that evaluation i like i like those
type of bets for the spot market in terms of very short market i mean short-term market i mean try
to get up to 100k that's all i'll say right now so yeah yeah man there's uh there's always a
yeah man there's uh there's always a bull market somewhere right like i think um
silver i think we mentioned this yesterday silver is up over 100 since thanksgiving weekend and if
if if anyone said that back then where hey silver's going to be up well over 100 against BTC going into the middle of January they'd call
you a crazy person but I guess that's just what this administration brings right it brings in a
entire class of volatility that we haven't seen in a very very very long time and it wouldn't surprise me if btc just gaps up um what is it like the 50
the 50 like the 52 week or whatever 50 week sma is the one everybody's that's right out like 101
k right now i mean but if we hit it by end of month it'll be 100k probably yeah yeah i i think I think like, I would say two back-to-back weekly closes above that EMA, that would take us to like 110.
But I'll say this, man. I will say this.
I think the worst thing that would happen is like, we just make a marginal high to like 130K.
And then we repeat the same exact thing that happened in q1 and q2
uh and q1 of last year and we just repeat that in q2 of this year um i think that would be shitty
honestly rather than like and i've seen this take before right there are a lot of people that are bullish long-term on this market but they would
rather see a flush um to like 70k below 70k basically right around that range high that we
hit uh throughout 2024 if you remember that range that we were in for a few months the bottom end of
the range was at 53 top end was at like 68 69 and so some people are calling like
for a retest of that and then we have a few years of up only and i i just have a hard time
i have a very hard time because the market doesn't care about tariffs um
a huge unemployment scare would be the only thing.
Rather than this perpetual grind up in unemployment,
which we know is just going to be up and to the right.
If you believe that UBI is going to be a thing, which I do,
we all know inflation is up and to the right.
$100 today is not the same hundred dollars in purchasing power as it was 30 years ago.
So it's like now that trend that we've had with inflation is probably going to be with unemployment.
Um, that's what I have to say about that.
I know it sounds pretty crazy to say, but like with ai and all that stuff and automation um
yeah productivity is going to be it's going to be looking a lot different now like
some people are just ai prompters now they can't even think for themselves
the way they do analysis is that they just type in their thoughts on on chat gpt and they come out
with they come out with uh paragraphs of just pure slop
and perhaps that's what markets are going to be evan right just pure slop how does it make sense
that something like silver um has bursted into a nine month rally of like 250 that's called slop that's boomer slop um and i guess gen z slop was like meme coins and
ai stuff going up like crazy in 2023 2024 and oh by the way naka you know what's funny
when i mentioned claude uh never not claude anthropic talking about that tomato
coin or whatever sold the tomato claude made a post about it which is
that that's just that's a movie man yeah you love to see it i think just like this this whole
this whole social dynamic of markets is just slop like it's no longer the 80s or the 70s where you had to have this huge thesis to why things would be going up.
I think this is just the beginnings of Project Zimbabwe, which ultimately leads to UBI.
And the age of these multi-year bear markets are are over with um but i oh my god yeah hey
dude the last time we had a multi-year bear market was in 2000 because 2000 oh you mean
and you mean you mean in trad fi in anything in anything in crypto and trad fi like dude the last
multi-year recession was over 20 years ago uh or whatever
it is right it wasn't even a recession because the financial crisis was the financial crisis was
it like lasted a bit more that barely lasted a year i think the s&p 500 peaked out in like q4
of 2007 and then the market bottomed out 15 months later in march of 2009 when obama
had that meeting with paul volker to the day the s p bottom that's 666 and it's like
yeah that coin's probably going to go to like a billion if markets actually uh melt up as high as
like they can and it's in front of everyone's faces then they're
gonna miss it but i could be wrong on that whatever just wanted just wanted to mention
real quick i mean that you look at that that is true but like if you look at that whole decade
like the s p 500 in 2011 or 2010 was the same price it was in 2000 10 years later so i mean
that whole decade if you do look at that area goal outperformed So, I mean, that whole decade,
if you do look at that area,
Gold outperformed S&P 500 during that whole decade.
I mean, you probably, I don't know completely,
but I think you would have had a better return
if you were just in bonds for that 10-year period.
The same could be said for the 1970s.
Obviously, that was the crazy gold rally,
but I think there's going to be a lost decade, man.
Like, if you're talking about UBI,
like, there's going to need to be things going down and like, you're going to need like to get in the type of politicians that would approve that you would need like not,
oh, wait, not necessarily, oh, wait type crashes, but you would need unemployment high. You would
need things to come down into bad shape, which I do think you can see probably in the 2030s.
But I mean, I don't really see you would need somebody like an AOC to be in to get a UBI.
I mean, maybe Newsom, maybe I don't even think that would be as far, far enough to the left.
You need somebody like more radical, like a Mabdani in AOC, which you'll, you could get
like, that's the ingredients for it.
Like if you do see like kind of like, oh, wait, like that was kind of the ingredients, you know, for somebody, well, Obama presented himself more moderately in the beginning,
but like even looking back to FDR, like that was very radical left at the time, like somebody FDR,
you need things to really come down and then people really want change and they'll vote for
somebody more socialist. But until that happens, you know, i think you would need like a lot of
automation driving unemployment up and then people get scared people sell off and all that
um last night i just wanted to say real quick i mean i think it's more similar like i wouldn't
compare it to i don't think zimbabwe i'll be more optimistic than that but kind of like the uk like
1930s 1940s like they were printing money we weren't. That's why the U.S. crashed so much
more during the Great Depression. You would have been much better off. You still would have lost
money, but you would have been way better off in the U.K. stock market, you know, back then,
kind of in the 1930s. I mean, the British pound still exists. It's probably down 99.9% since the
1930s. I don't know the exact thing, but I think it'll be like that. It just keeps slowly going
down. But there's going to be bad decades for the S&P 500.
There's probably going to be bad decades for Bitcoin, too.
And I would assume 2030s probably won't be as good as the 2020s, just like the 2020s
for Bitcoin haven't been as good as the 2010s.
So, I mean, yeah.
yeah everyone know what's wild man um if we talk about a last decade we're if you want to talk
Everyone know what's wild, man.
about growth right um we we we're we're basically halfway there right it's been about five years
since 2021 and um this is going to be a pretty crazy statistic but from their respective peaks last cycle the
s p peaking out of 4 800 and btc at 69k if you would have bought in those tops right you would
have been up more on the s p 500 than on btc isn't that crazy bro and with inflation adjusted that's
an even that's a terrifying story bro that is a terrifying story um in a way
we're kind of we're kind of halfway there dude and then you look at all coins kind of the same thing
five years um since the all btc top almost inflation adjusted oh boy you got a long ways to go so in a
way we're kind of already halfway or potentially this is near the top right of that i guess halfway last decade but
maybe this is um maybe this was like an experiment for what's inevitably going to happen in the
2030s after uh the next round of zerp and kiwi which I think is going to happen under Trump. Like, I legitimately think Kiwi and Zerp is going to happen over the next, I mean, now two years, right?
Because that's when the next election season comes.
So over the next, like, two and a half years, I genuinely believe Kiwi and Zerp is going to happen.
And then that, I think, like, it'll kind of be like a more extreme version
of what happened after the COVID cycle,
where it's like you have this huge drawdown and then this huge echo bubble
where all things growth perpetuate to the upside.
And then you come off of the sugar high, off of the complacency high, right?
And then you come off of the sugar high, off of the complacency high, right?
Kind of like how in 2023, you had that massive echo bubble after the sugar high came down.
And if you look at alt BTC pairs since Q1 of 2024, they've gotten slaughtered after that huge rally that they had.
And if you bought alt coins during that time right
just as a trade there were a lot more opportunities q4 23 q1 24 um by an extreme amount i think a lot
of people including myself took it for granted and um yeah i kind of think the same thing is
going to happen but just to like a a a more extreme degree, especially if it's going to be a Trump administration where Trump is basically not only the president, but he's also like, I guess, like the pseudo head of the Federal Reserve because he will be.
He's going to be the one that gives this guy instructions and all that stuff.
Right. If he wants negative interest rates, we're going to get the one that gives this guy instructions and all that stuff right if he wants
negative interest rates we're going to get negative interest rates man if he wants money printing
we're probably going to get money printing bro it's even crazier though is if you bought gold
in the year 2000 you would still be ahead i think the s p 500 now 25 26 years later don't agree with
everything peter schiff says but that was one
of the things he was right on statistically yeah i had him on the show here a few weeks ago um
it was actually was actually a pretty nice conversation man i think people just give him
a lot of crap for no reason man but um he knows he knows how to attract the crowd and get people riled
up and all that stuff,
man.
Is there anything else you want to say, Evan?
Anything else you guys want to discuss?
Anything that perhaps
we didn't yap about
on today's show?
I'm just going to mention...
Did Joe
Kolasar actually crash out last time?
No, I think he was getting a phone call, man.
Oh, okay.
We said it on the face.
I'm getting a phone call.
Was he getting a phone call from the Bogdanov twins?
Nah, dude.
He doesn't even trade leverage.
He just buys the S&P 500, man.
And BTC. I don't S&P 500, man. And BTC.
I don't really think he trades, man.
I think the only trade I've heard him talk about is something about bond calls
or something like that, and that was in 2023 and 2024.
I don't really think he trades on options or anything like that.
Yeah.
Go ahead, Evan.
I was just going to say, I mean, I think you're right to, like, a certain extent about, like, the Trump thing controlling the Fed.
I mean, I think a lot of people got to realize that, like, even if you replace Powell tomorrow, like, that doesn't mean that because there's other people, like, on the Fed that it's like Powell doesn a hundred percent or the Fed chair doesn't have a hundred percent of where, you know,
rates are going to go.
And I think that if you look at like the betting odds and where like the money is betting
too, I mean, it's only like what, two rate cuts this year.
And that's assuming that Trump puts in exactly who he wants to put into.
So, you know, I don't think Trump's going to be able to get that amount of power that
quickly. That's my opinion. Maybe I'm wrong, but I just don't think Trump's going to be able to get that amount of power that quickly.
That's my opinion.
Maybe I'm wrong, but I just don't think he's going to.
I think he's just going to kind of drop this.
Well, not really drop this lawsuit.
They kind of like stop talking about it.
Like there's big successes Trump has and there's big failures kind of like Trump coin, Melania coin.
Like you don't talk about that no more.
You know what I mean?
Like it's going to go like one of those things.
You know what i mean like it's gonna it's gonna go like one of those things you know what i mean yeah that that that video that powell put out
man really made the rounds i even saw it on instagram dude um it's like uh this administration
is kind of like a reality tv show it's a reality TV show that makes the stock market move.
And making the stock market move now over the last year is a lot different than moving the stock market back in 2017, 2018.
A lot different.
Like you now have multiple stocks trading at over $1 trillion in valuation.
That's nuts, man.
That is absolutely nuts.
I think that happens with crypto probably like the next batch of QE.
I think you'll actually see at least like two other coins going over a trillion in market cap.
two other coins going over a trillion in market cap.
If Kiwi and Zerp happens, which I think it will, but I could be wrong on that.
You'd have to have something crazy happen.
I don't think a war is going to break out.
I know that's what everyone's thinking, but it doesn't have to be a war for Kiwi and Zerp
to happen.
Other things can happen, right?
We saw tariffs that caused such a huge meltdown where they had to basically use a bunch of reserves to pump up the market.
And if what Bisset is saying is true, then like the face ripper rally likely starts in like two months, three months, like the real Omega rally, which so far Bessent hasn't really been wrong as far as dictating like where the economy goes in correlation with markets, which I think this is one of the first times, man, in modern day history where like you have an active like what percent is what like the head of the treasury actively be bullish on markets.
It's not like Yellen where she basically just said a whole lot of nothing and she was job owning.
is actively bullish on the US of A, which is great to see, man. We should have more people
like Scott Bessent. If anyone, by the way, if anyone in the audience wants to come up and talk
some shop, if you're listening right now, you want to ask any questions or just come up and give your
thoughts on the market or comment on anything that we've said you guys can go ahead and uh click the mic to the
bottom left and uh and i'll bring you right on up so if you guys want to come up and talk yap you've
been listening to the show for a while whether it's a few weeks months or years you can click the uh
request button just click the spaces tab right at the bottom left you'll see that little mic that
says request and uh and i'll bring you
right on up i'll give it a i'll give it a few moments but just uh one more call out for you
uh knock and evan there's anything else that you guys want to say uh before i uh
wrap up the show here i mean i'm just i'm just interested in um what people are interested in
buying if they're bullish right so? So obviously, you know,
the whole like complacency shoulder narrative has become very mainstream right now. And I kind of
believe it. I think it's probably going to happen again, just based upon like MVRV and, you know,
high timeframe divergences and stuff like that. I think it's, it's definitely going to happen, but like, I mean, you know, we
don't know how much fuckery there's going to be like this thing can go sideways
for two months or something and make people believe that it's a bull market
and whatever, I just want to know what else people are actually, you know,
buying if they're bullish, what do they think is good?
What's what's going to go up?
I, i have the
perfect uh person to answer that question uncle mike i see him in the audience i'm sending him
uh an invite to speak he can give you um a plethora of tickers i mean mike mike alford will
probably just tell me to buy bitcoin and bitcoin miners or something
and i'm not really interested in holding bitcoin miners for like a month or something
so iron was a pretty good call man that was like pretty great i think that was probably like one
of like the only um trades in the equity market outside of hood that I've done that have actually like been pleasantly
surprising, honestly. Um, yeah, I think Cypher also did pretty well. Um, yeah, he can come up
if, if you like, I'm sending him an invite to speak, but, uh, yeah. and i think iron probably um outperforms uh outperforms mstr like
once beta um of btc starts to go go i mean honestly i'm just very skeptical about any
bitcoin beta like we're so late at the Bitcoin cycle. I don't think any of
that stuff is particularly good investment at this stage. I mean, I'm interested in things that are a
bit more, you know, unconventional off the wall, maybe something that I haven't thought of, you
know? Um, I saw there was one thing that I did get interested in, which was mute swap by virtuals.
Um, because I think while you mentioned the virtuals ecosystem, um, yeah.
Um, but I mean, anything else that people think is bullish that people are like,
yeah, this is, you know, this is the hot new thing that's up and coming.
Uh, I would be interested to hear that.
Because, I mean, I am a bear right now.
I'm a bear until, basically, I'm a bear until the MVRV resets, right?
I want Bitcoin's value to...
What's MVRV?
MVRV.
Market value to realized value right so you have the the bitcoin realized price
which every every single bitcoin bear market the the bitcoin's market value i.e the value
you can buy and trade on you know on coinbase today has gone substantially below the realized
price right and the realized price i haven't got it up
in front of me but it's like 50k at the moment or something or 40k something like that so like
i i am kind of bearish right um until it goes below that realized price and then comes back
up above it or you know whilst it's substantially below it that's when you want to basically be like
a bitcoin bull but like just because i'm a bear doesn't mean i think everything is going to go down
and i'm just like you know sort of bared up about all assets on all time frames right so if if people
do have any suggestions for crypto stuff that they think is interesting i'd be i'd be interested to hear it yeah as far as uh virtuals i think that's probably the highlight of uh the
ethereum ecosystem in my opinion like if eth goes uh above i would say 8 000 i think
virtuals um is really going to surprise a lot of people. I mean, if ETH goes above 8,000,
that will surprise me a lot.
Yeah.
I think ETH right now is just kind of like
a more expedited version of Amazon stock after .com.
So 800 USD for ETH would kind of be like that bottom that Amazon put in.
I think it was at like 50 cents or something.
Like about a year or so.
Yeah, but what was the Amazon market cap at that point, right?
Like ETH has almost a trillion dollar market cap.
It's like half trillion dollar market cap.
Nobody's using it, right?
Like when was the last time anyone here actually used eth i mean i i like ethereum i haven't used
it for like 12 months right it has a half trillion dollar market cap with no users this is like a red
flag yeah i'm not too sure about like no users because like people still use like DeFi and all that stuff.
Things like Aave.
I think even more recently, like people started using Synthetix.
My God, that's a name I haven't heard in many years.
Synthetix.
Yeah, they had a trading competition that actually got a good amount of volume they've been
doing these trading competitions over the last few months and um i think eth is probably just
more so not not to use for mainnet but like l2s and all that stuff uh specifically things like
base right that's where like the virtuals ecosystem operates.
And I think like if you hold stable coins,
you're probably going to hold them on Ethereum
and not any other network.
And those stable coins are usually deployed
once you start seeing BTC going into price discovery.
At least that's what the trend has been, right?
We actually saw a glimmer of what we've seen in past years over the summer.
We actually saw ETH making a marginal all-time high back in August, right?
And I mean, if you want to pull up like squiggly lines and all that stuff, then perhaps that was Ethereum's 74K BTC moment. Right. In March of 2024. And we didn't revisit those levels until eight months later after the election, right? So perhaps sometime in May later of this year, after Powell gets replaced,
and this dovish guy that Trump brings in, perhaps slashes rates at the next FOMC by a good amount,
and does some light QE, that would probably spike up ETH.
And I think we all know that the ETH eco is likely going to blow up in a big way to the upside after all this happens.
Has DeFi and all that stuff happened during QE and ZERP?
It depends though, man. it really depends on it depends
on how that all goes right we don't know you know a lot of the trad fi people talk about like
predicting trad fi markets based upon you know central bank policy and this kind of shit they
don't really have a very good track record right you know predicting predicting markets based upon
trad fi fundamentals like 12 months out is basically a complete crapshoot they
have no idea what's going to happen uh they can't trade it like wait and see right like maybe maybe
it does happen okay maybe there is like the big qe thing right maybe you know in june like yeah
trump is like rates back to zero and then okay we're on but like i'm not gonna buy ether now Based upon like fundamentals of people saying that you know
Trump is gonna is gonna like low rates, right?
If you traded if you just traded every single thing that trump said he was gonna do you'd just be completely wrecked
completely wrecked because he frequently says something and then two weeks later he turns
Because he frequently says something and then two weeks later. He turns around and says the exact opposite
around and says the exact opposite. I don't know, Naka. He tweeted, he tweeted, um, on April 7th
at like 6am now's a good time to buy. And then the S and P had, yeah, so that, so that, that,
yeah. So that one time, you know, it was actually, he also, he also said it a few weeks ago. Um,
and he, he said new all time highs and then the um and he said new all-time highs and then the s p
made new all-time highs like there there's i don't think there's ever been a point to fade
trump when it comes to the stock market he is the stock market man like there's there's never been
there's never been anyone more influential in market history than Donald J. Trump.
Bro, my Melania token isn't doing too good, bro.
I'm a little disappointed with my Melania token, man.
Well, that's different.
I'm saying equities.
As far as equities, dude, Trump is the Fed when he's in office.
when he's when he's uh when he's in office um and he he he he gave you the the the small local top
um after the inauguration he said the the market is is a sick patient it's a sick it's a sick
person and it has to go into surgery and sometimes accidents happen but it's going to be okay just give it a few more months and what happened in a
few months after that like the biggest recovery uh in stock market history you know yeah i mean
you did completely nuke everything with like liberation day and his tariffs right so that
was the bottom dude like that was basically the the week that the market bottomed out and the s&p is up over 40 since liberation day that's insane that's actually
crazy yeah but there was like a massive there was like a massive nuke on on everything as a result
of him yeah everything went back to all-time highs that's the thing like you didn't
get blown out if you were on spot right like i i think there's this like weird misconception that
people in markets they're always putting on leverage they're always going on um like options
markets and equities most people they just buy and hold man um yeah yeah i mean
i mean like if look if you just buy and hold triple q's you're probably okay you can ignore
the noise you don't care who the president is right but like i mean if you're in crypto you
kind of do care because if you if your narrative is running, and then Trump blows up all markets and everything, you know,
legacy markets crash 30%,
your narrative is probably permanently dead, right?
Or at least it's going to take a massive shit,
and then who knows what's going to come out the other end of that.
So I just would, like, my take on anything TradFi is
mostly ignore it, right?
And just pay attention to what the crypto markets are actually
doing i'm gonna pass it over to uncle mike uncle mike what's going on man it's been uh about a
month since uh we last spoke a lot of interesting stuff has happened since then the nakeys and price
discovery the iwm is actually expanding this time in a big way you also have euro stocks
um making all-time highs and the s p is about to make an all-time high probably by the end of the
week man what's uh what's on the menu coming up for uh for the wines oh i'm drinking some
asado again tonight uh at this private club that a buddy of mine invited me to, but I'm
actually becoming a member too because it's such a cool place.
I'm like, I got to become a member of this place.
But listen, Happy New Year.
Your timing of doing spaces before the market closed is just never going to work with me.
So you don't have to ask me if I can come if you do it at like 1230 Pacific.
You don't have to ask me if I can come if you do it at like 1230 Pacific.
And then just this week, I've had like four or five board meetings and board calls, had
some back stuff.
We closed the acquisition of DTR, tons of stuff going on there.
I had an IRON board call today.
today that was the first update i've had on iron this in this new calendar year and as expected
That was the first update I've had on IRON in this new calendar year.
there's just a shit ton of stuff uh in the works because guess what uh every single available
megawatt uh in the u.s in particular and particularly if it's in large size it's all going to be
needed it's all going to be subsumed it's all going to be used up it's all going to be leveraged
and that whole process is just accelerating um across the board i think there's going to be subsumed. It's all going to be used up. It's all going to be leveraged. And that whole
process is just accelerating across the board. I think there's going to be, I don't know, this
year, there's going to be dozens of major combination cloud and colo agreements announced
across this space. I think some of the biggest deals that have been done will probably be done
this year. from my perspective,
the environment's actually accelerating. The CapEx investments are actually increasing
week over week still. Now, it's totally contrary to what people were saying in November, December,
like the Jim Cramers and the talking heads on TV were saying about there being a bubble.
There is zero sign of a bubble.
If anything, there's a sign of an acceleration.
And in addition to the things you mentioned, like the small caps outperforming the large caps,
the equal-weighted S&P is significantly outperforming the S&P year-to-date.
It outperformed yesterday.
It outperformed again today.
I just checked to make sure because I was busy today.
I wasn't able to watch kind of all those dynamics, but it's much
more like a second, third, fourth inning, like early cycle feel to the market right now than
a mid to late stage. And I think a lot of people are just incorrectly anchored to a timing
perspective on where we are in the cycle and not enough are anchored correctly
to the right fundamentals. I think the right fundamentals right now are watching the areas of the market that have
underperformed for three or four years now.
So everything from small caps to biotech, which has recently started to outperform,
sectors like consumer staples this year, which are all of a sudden have woken up and are
starting to run.
I'm seeing a big broadening effect in equities just in totality.
And then there's also just the fact
we haven't had like a real U.S. business cycle at all.
We've seen some assets reprice, right?
So basically the digital financial capital has repriced,
but the main street, the real businesses, right,
like the manufacturing sector hasn't really had anything that looks like an expansion yet.
My suspicion is because of all the chicanery and all the crazy things that Trump is working on right now,
and I think he has good intentions with some of those things,
I think the net effect of that is going to be to finally heat the market up enough.
The combination of sort of anti-Fed job owning
and sort of signaling that rates are going to come down,
trying to juice the real estate market,
trying to bring down costs for consumers,
trying to stop corporate interest
from buying up real estate, et cetera, et cetera.
So you go down the list of all these things
that he's pulling on these levers right now.
I think what he's trying to do
is finally get the ISMPMI to flip over 50 and go into an expansion territory. And the small cap index
and the broadening we're seeing in the equal weighted S&P is all signaling that the market
thinks that that's going to happen. And that, I think, is what you actually need to finally see
strength in crypto assets beyond Bitcoin. I think with the benefit of hindsight,
you can say that we have not been in a bull market at all for the broader crypto ecosystem
since 2021. 2022 was a nasty start to a bear market. And then we've effectively,
with some small rallies, just been floating around those levels for four years. We've seen,
look, BNB's up and Solana's up off the bottom and Ethereum is up,
but none of these things have gone into sort of parabolic price discovery above previous all-time
highs from 2021. And it makes sense because there really haven't been the correct liquidity
conditions for anything that isn't in its own idiosyncratic S-curve to run. So people say, well, Bitcoin's up a lot.
Well, yeah, it's up a lot because of very particular institutional factors
like the adoption of the ETF, the most successful ETF in history,
and the rise of these large-scale treasury companies,
which is a very idiosyncratic factor that has mostly impacted Bitcoin,
not other cryptocurrencies.
I'm aware of BitMine Immersion.
I'm aware of Sharpling.
I'm aware of the other treasury company strategies, but nothing has been as pervasive as the Bitcoin
treasury strategy, and no ETF has had as much success as Ibit. And so Bitcoin has basically
been able to buck this sort of negative environment where the Fed, in retrospect,
has been too restrictive. There's been no business cycle. Liquidity hasn't been quite right to go out further on the curve beyond Bitcoin.
And I think that's finally probably going to change.
The other thing that people say against this argument is that, well, look at the S&P.
It's at all-time highs.
And I'm like, well, tell me about the composition of the S&P and what really drives it.
And it's really a small group of companies which almost without fail has some
direct exposure or viewed as having some direct exposure to AI. Something that sort of launched
in the consumer consciousness in 2022 with ChatGPT during the last sort of deeply negative
part of the bear market for U.S. equities. And so we've had like a nice recovery, right,
like a rubber band recovery in pretty much everything that has to do with AI and in the broad market indices.
But we haven't seen, just like in crypto, we haven't seen a lot of different names beyond technology and AI participate in that equity rally.
You can point to some utilities, but all those utilities are selling power to AI companies.
are selling power to AI companies.
You can point to some equipment makers
like GE Vernova or Vertiv, et cetera,
like Celestica, et cetera,
and they're all exposed to the AI data center.
A thematic, again, a thematic
that probably has 20 or 30 years to run
and at least in the short term
probably doesn't have a major downturn
until Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, etc. all decide that they
don't want to keep investing here. And what I'm seeing right now as sort of a macro thing is that
you have these two, three, four, five trillion dollar companies. They're the biggest companies
in all of human history. They have more cash and more cash flow than any companies in human history.
And they are in an existential battle because effectively if you serve on the board of those companies you cannot preside over becoming Kodak you cannot preside over your company becoming
blockbuster video and there's a very real risk given how quickly the AI adoption curve is moving
up that that the companies that don't invest correctly here don't invest enough can actually
become somewhat irrelevant
within five or 10 years.
And then you become a Harvard business case study.
You were a hyperscaler.
You're one of the greatest companies
in all of human history
and you became a dinosaur
because you didn't invest enough in AI.
So effectively, like the game theory of the math
is like there's really no amount of money
that's too much to defend a two or three
or $4 trillion market cap company look
what's happened with with google they launched gemini gemini went into a leadership position
and google is effectively outperforming microsoft meta and everyone else ever since then
the market is not irrational the market is rationally pricing in the risk to these legacy
business models of things like ai and google i, I think, is doing it correctly. If you search for something in Google that's really a question now, it doesn't give you
a hyperlink text.
It just gives you the answer.
And the answers you can get from Google Gemini just in the regular Google search bar are
really good.
They're far better than the answers you would get from just getting a list of links where
you have to go and effectively do the research yourself.
So that's what's happening. And the reason why you just can't get a downturn is that that's
driving the whole economy. It's driving the S&P, right? It's driving GDP. GDP is far outstripping
what most people thought it would do six months or a year ago. And right now it's accelerating.
And I'm sitting at the front lines, right, because I'm selling compute to the gold miners
who are out there trying to figure out what applications are actually going to be the
long-term winners and what foundation models are.
That's a tough game.
It's not a game I necessarily want to play.
And personally, the game I want to play is I want to serve all those people beans in
the kitchen after a long day of gold mining. I want to sell them Levi's jeans
in the store, right? I want to sell them pickaxes and shovels and buckets and anything they need in
order to mine for AI gold, right? And so when you're sitting in that place, you see the demand
in real time. It's not predicated right now on who can actually deliver revenue at scale yet,
because it's not about that. It's still about like, we're laying the groundwork. We're creating
the field for the next 10, 20, 30 years of AI. And anyone who doesn't participate now is probably
going to become irrelevant anyway, and they just don't matter. So that's why if you're selling
compute right now, every single hyperscaler is calling you every single day.
And they're asking for more, more, more, more, more every single day.
They're asking for more iterations on how they can do more, how they can get more power, how they can get more buildings stood up faster.
Right. Because they need more capacity sooner because they're worried that their core business is at risk.
They're worried that their core business is at risk.
So that's the environment. It's highly competitive.
So that's the environment.
It's highly competitive.
And it's not the type of environment where you're going to get a sudden pullback in demand.
It's actually an environment where you're likely to see more exuberance and more mania,
probably significantly more before the pullback.
And it really does remind me of like 97, 96, 97, 98, even internet,
where you weren't wrong to say the internet is a bubble because eventually it was a bubble.
The problem was is that the vast majority of the money in the market, the internet market was made in like the last six months.
So you were calling it a bubble three years early and you weren't wrong, but you were wrong in terms of not making money.
And I refuse to do that here.
I just think it's quite silly. Unless you're out there selling compute every day and you're talking to hyperscalers,
you're really not going to be in a position to judge where we are in that cycle. If you are,
then you're, of course, and you have any markets background at all or any experience,
you're going to recognize that this is not the way tops feel like. This is what early to mid-cycle
heat-up periods feel like, where
there's some chirping from people that don't know anything yet because they missed it.
And so it's really important to convince their investors or their friends or whoever they
respect that they didn't get it wrong. And so we need to tell everyone it's a bubble,
right? And hopefully we can get the stocks down and we can buy them lower. And they were
successful at that in Q4. I mean, you could buy iron at $37, $33, right?
$37 at the end of the year.
And it was $75 just two months earlier.
And nothing's even happened yet.
Like, none of the AI contracts have even, like, really been executed on yet.
And almost none of the capacity that's available has even been put under contract yet.
So I'm sort of chuckling.
I'm like, who are these people that come out of the woodwork saying we're in a bubble?
They must not actually be in this business.
They must be just sitting, I don't know, somewhere,
sitting wherever they're sitting in their home office
and just digging around on the internet.
But they're certainly not in the business every day.
If you're in the business every day right now, it's really, really hard to see how we get any sort of significant top
in the CapEx cycle for 12 to 18 months at a minimum. That doesn't mean the market won't
front run that. But in order for the market to front run that, we need to go multiples higher
on a number of different things. We need to see a lot more FOMO and a lot more mania and a lot more euphoria. And if we see that and it pulls forward enough of that
demand, then I'll change my view. But right now, I see a lot more fear and uncertainty from people
who don't know anything about what's happening in the sector. And I see for people who know a lot
about what's happening in the sector, the opposite. They're just in a rush. They realize
that they're short and they need to get longer. They need more power. They need more infrastructure.
They need more chips. And again, if you agree with me that AI is effectively what drove the S&P
the last few years, then you'll understand why you're not going to get the 20% drawdown or 30%
drawdown that people are praying for until this slows
down.
And I'm telling you, it's accelerating.
So I'm just going to continue to do what I've been doing, right?
Like, it's worked really well.
The past three years, there have been a lot of traders who were short or bearish or drew
chart squigglers dozens of times since Q1 of 2023. I was told I was an idiot for thinking Bitcoin could go up at 18,
25, 35, 45, 65, 85. Now we're in the 90s and people are annoyed because it went down from 126.
What if everything over the last three years was literally not even the cycle yet? It was
literally just the rubber band snapping back to something that resembles fundamental value in a steady state world.
And we're not in a steady state world.
We're actually experiencing significant adoption.
The ETFs are not shrinking.
They're growing.
The treasury companies, none of the major treasury companies are selling Bitcoin.
Right.
And some of them are actually still able to buy Bitcoin because they launched the preferreds early enough.
And those preferreds have a yield high enough in fiat terms to continue to attract flows.
That's a real business.
It's a real model that probably works at scale, particularly once Bitcoin goes back to sort of more reflexive, impulsive price behavior, which I suspect it will do at some point.
So I think for Bitcoin, maybe we're fifth or sixth inning.
We're in the first case where we get to 150 or 180,
whatever this year, maybe even running 2027.
I think for the small caps and for the equal weighted S&P,
effectively 480 or 450 companies
that really didn't get an AI benefit.
In the S&P, we might be in the second inning of a turnaround,
which basically started in Q4, like a couple of things bounced in Q4,
and then a whole bunch of names are behaving much better
in the first couple weeks of this year than they did,
particularly the end of last year because you had tax loss selling
and a lot of stuff that was down.
In crypto, like I'm watching Ethereum and Solana and pretty much everything else, anything
that moves there for signs that liquidity is going to start to make its way beyond that.
I added more Ethereum in the last few weeks.
I added the iShares Ethereum Trust.
I think I went from 130,000 shares to 160,000 shares, whatever that is, four-ish million or so.
And then I have my core spot Ethereum position that I've been holding since a little over $300 from way back in 2019 timeframe, 2020 timeframe.
So I still think...
Aren't you kind of wrecking your cost basis with that?
I mean, if you bought Ethereum at $300, why are you buying at $3,000?
Because there are two different things one is a position that i bought
personally as a long-term vc style play i plan to hold for 20 years and the other one i bought in my
fund they're wildly different oh okay it's your fund yeah okay but what's your what's your target
for ethereum then probably over the next 24 months i'm not sure over the next 24 months? I'm not sure over the next 24 months,
but I think over the next 10 years,
it's going to like 30 or 50,000 minimum.
And it could do some component of that
in the next 12 or 24 months.
It's not so important to me that it does in the next 24 months,
but I think because of the Ethereum treasury companies
sort of as a fast number two behind the Bitcoin treasury companies
and then the utility specifically for stable coins i just see not only narrative support but flow support for
the foreseeable future which given better macro which i see coming over the next three to six
months like i can see ethereum re-rating to five six k quite easily and of course if it breaks
six k and goes into like real parabolic price discovery is
certainly going to get to 10 or 15k in that window but i also just think that like at least as it
relates to crypto it's similar to an it's similar to a value investment in equities where you have
a bit more downside protection because the uh for stable coins is so real like
stable coins is probably the part of crypto that is the most real to the most real people
in the most places in the world such that you can argue that even bitcoin is sort of speculative
from some dimension right but it's hard to argue that a u.s dollar uh stablecoin is not useful.
Like, look at Venezuela.
Why do you think stablecoins are going to help ETH?
Like, nobody pays any fees on ETH anymore.
I mean, I looked at the ETH fees chart, and it's basically gone to zero.
Like, not the fees per transaction, but the total fees per day.
Ethereum doesn't make any money.
It's a charity. Yeah, but you're not buying the Ethereum token because
the Ethereum protocol makes money, I don't think.
what does it have to do with stablecoins then?
Like, is it kind of a vibes-based
thing where, like, the good
vibe of stablecoins will make people
put trillions of dollars into
a charity? Like, what's the deal?
I don't think it's a charity. I mean, like,
look, all speculation
in markets is about trying to see a year or two out three years out and i think just the fact
that ethereum is becoming an embedded part of the stablecoin ecosystem means that it has more
sustainability it has more potential optionality to generate economic returns than some of these other things that are probably just air.
And again, part of my thesis is macro, such that if the money starts to go out further on the curve, it's going to go beyond Bitcoin.
And it maybe will impact some of these things that are even more kind of silly than Ethereum.
But I actually don't think Ethereum is silly.
Like, I think there actually are going to be use cases but how do i mean how do you think ethereum is
going to make any money because right now as i said nobody pays any fees it's operating as a
charity it has it's like a you know half trillion dollar market cap charity like how's how's this
use it for stuff like they still use it to transact. They still use it to do NFTs.
They still use it to provision
decentralized
applications.
They still use it for decentralized trading.
Look, Bitcoin doesn't generate
any fees for the users either, but the
value for the user is the scarcity.
So it doesn't need to generate...
It doesn't need to pay
you a dividend. It doesn't need to generate you don't need to use it to doesn't need to pay you a dividend it doesn't generate any embedded yield right and it and the protocol doesn't make any money
necessarily that benefits you as a holder you benefit because the protocol protocol functions
in a decentralized way for a long enough period for it to accrue value in fiat terms because it
is better than the system that it's it's stood up against and the better than the system that it's stood up against. Better than the system that it measures value against.
So as long as...
Okay, but I mean, I feel like
there's a bit of a sort of
tension between the buzzword of like accrue
value and the reality of it's a charity.
How do you have .eth
in your name, man?
I'm just saying, you've got
to understand the bear case.
For real, dude, you've had .eth for like five years.
Yeah, but here's the thing, Wabi.
If you're bullish on something for five years and it doesn't work,
should you keep being bullish or should you ask skeptical questions?
I'm just asking questions.
You just said it.
I've been bullish on Ethereum for five to six years now,
and I'm up 11x, right?
So that's a reasonable return it's a really
good return well it depends it depends when you bought if people bought in you know like in 2021
you'd actually be down right now i think who actually does this for a living you could yeah
i'm not i'm not saying that you like i'm not saying that you're personally down i'm just saying that like the asset hasn't actually moved in price right it's it's been in a long-term consolidation
with no loss or no gain overall right the asset doesn't have any protocol revenue nobody spends
any money on it so these are both kind of bearish so i'm trying to see what is the rational case i
don't agree with your premise but that's okay like I've just gotten to the point in my life where I'm not going to try to convince everybody.
But my argument is simple.
Ethereum has proven itself alongside Bitcoin as a sustainable, decentralized ecosystem with use cases that are different than Bitcoin.
Bitcoin and the simple fact that it is in existence and unlikely to go away means it
will accrue value relative to anything that you're trying to compare it to.
So if you're buying Ethereum in dollars, yes, Ethereum is more scarce than dollars.
Will Ethereum still be more scarce than dollars in five years?
Probably.
Almost certainly.
Will Ethereum be more useful than dollars?
Well, it depends.
How much more NFTs do we want to buy?
How many more decentralized protocols do you want to use?
Nobody's buying NFTs.
No one's buying NFTs today, but during every recession in U.S. history,
the demand for one-of-one artwork in the physical world went down too,
and those were always buying opportunities.
So I'm not an NFT bull.
I'm not an artwork bull.
But I understand that other people
like those things and as an investor i i try to be agnostic like if you're too emotionally tied
to this naka like i can understand why you sold bitcoin seven times already you're not long
ethereum i'm not emotional about it like i just think these things are going to be more valuable
and even if i don't use them personally i think it's very easy to model a five six seven
eight thousand dollar ethereum price and i don't see a lot of other things in the economy that i
want to own right now that are going to do that whatever that return is 100 150 200 percent in a
reasonable time frame with the same amount of risk right i actually don't view ethereum when you when
you say when you say model like a seven
to eight k ethereum like what does this model consist of what's the model it consists of
some view of the different use cases uh for ethereum over time and which which ones are
we talking about i'm not going to keep saying the same thing over well well like do you mean nfts
which are currently dead and like basically
don't exist or do you mean stable coins that don't pay any fees like you keep giving me
these premises that i don't agree with like literally my wife got a notice that one of her
nfts just shot up in value like a couple weeks ago like she she bought this thing for nothing
and someone wants to give her like $5,000 for it.
She bought it for $5.
Okay.
What's the NFC?
Naka, you're going to have a brain aneurysm, dude.
Mike, can I ask you a quick question?
I know you mentioned,
I really liked how you mentioned
like we're similar to like in 1996, 1997.
I'm curious what your views are on
for potentially the 2030s.
It seems like you're still bullish into there.
But if you look at what happened between 2000 and 2010, obviously it was a lost decade for the Nasdaq.com type of stuff.
Do you think that could be similar with AI and crypto in the 2030s?
I mean, it wasn't really a lost decade for investors who were diversified.
Real estate did great in a big chunk of that window. Value stocks did great. Berkshire Hathaway did great in that window.
Certainly, if you paid peak prices for the NASDAQ and dot-com stocks at the peak of the bubble,
it took you a long time to dig out. But I know a lot of people who bought Amazon and Microsoft and things like that in 2003
and 2005, and they bought Apple in 2009, 2010 during the great financial crisis, right? And
Google, they've done great. Lost decade doesn't mean anything. I mean, what matters is idiosyncratically,
when did you take your exposures? And because I'm a concentrated value investor, I only really get interested in anything
when other people are largely disinterested.
Like, effectively, I need lots of Nakamoto's
in the world in order to make the types of returns
that I've made over the last few years.
Like, he was bearish when I turned bullish
at the end of December in 2022.
And correctly, maybe...
I wasn't bearish.
You were bearish when I took up 23 and 24. I wasn't bearish. You were bearish. I wasn't bearish. I was up to 23 and 24.
I wasn't bearish.
I was fully allocated in 23.
Naka, no, you were not.
Yeah, I was.
I publicly posted it.
It's still on the timeline.
Naka, you said you had 2% in ETH, 1% in BTC, half a percent in matic like what and then hey and i have the spaces are
recorded bro in the summer of 2023 when air mass i was in i was in matic too i lost a lot of money
on that one he said and and air mass said naka and 12 allocated what the fuck are you talking about
and that was on the space where where we hold on okay i mean wait
naka i need you to be like a russian tank and back off from ukraine listen guys let's not make this
personal like nakamoto i like nakamoto listen so i'm not i'm not going to say because i like you
i'm not going to say anything else about you specifically but i want the comment i want to
make is that this is what's so challenging about markets is everybody remembers the path differently everybody remembers things incorrectly everyone
including me and you can go back and listen to the recorded spaces from 2023 the one thing i can
say with certainty and this is the only thing i probably say with certainty is that i never
turn bearish once between January of 2023
and now. Every single time, every single space, every single moment, because I'm not going to
turn bearish when we have asymmetric upside and sentiment being too negative and nothing's even
happened yet. So I still think it's foolish today to be bearish, particularly on any asset that is more scarce than Bitcoin
or sorry more scarce than the dollar right so that includes houses like I'm
still buying real estate because I think even real estate's a good investment at
the right price and if it's the right type of real estate I'm buying
everything that's more scarce than the dollar because the dollar is going to
debase the debasement trade is has been around for a long time.
It's funny that the banks, the Goldman Sachs of the world just showed up and started talking
about it last week.
I guess their clients wanted to hear more about it.
But it's going to go on for 20, 30, 40, 50, 100 years.
As long as there's still fiat, the debasement trade will be on.
And occasionally, stuff that's actually a really good antidote to debasement gets cheap
because for periods of time, people say, oh, that has no value.
So right now, the narrative is, well, Ethereum generates no fees for stablecoins.
There's no NFTs.
Nobody's doing decentralized trading.
Again, I beg to disagree on that.
Decentralized trading is quite active on Ethereum.
And almost all of those protocols that are useful that people are using are built on Ethereum.
But that's beside the point. Maybe it doesn't matter.
And then you look out two or three years and you ask yourself,
okay, if anything in the crypto ecosystem is still going to be around and kicking
and decentralized, how would you want to intellectually bet
against a protocol that has the second longest lifespan
of utility after Bitcoin and there's no way to shut it off or kill it right now.
So how is it going to go down in value?
Like, help me understand how it's going to go down in value.
I don't see it.
I think the odds that it's higher is lower.
The way it's going to go down in value is, you know,
there's going to be more sellers than buyers, right?
Like, the Ethereum network can still work if the than buyers right like the ethereum network can still
work if the price goes down 90 right it can still work all the people who said solana was going to
out compete ethereum and that all these other layer ones are going to out compete ethereum
they've all disappeared um because ethereum is as messy as it is it's still very very sticky
bitcoin's the same way the argument about bitcoin that was totally incorrect for the past 70 years
because i battled with these people on here is, oh, from a technology standpoint, it's antiquated technology. You need to use XRP because it's so fast. And you can't do decentralized trading like Ethereum and Ethereum has ultrasound money and it's going to beat Bitcoin. No, it doesn't matter because for what Bitcoin's trying to do, it is so much better. And it's better because it's inefficient the fact that it wastes energy
quote unquote according to some people is the reason why ai can't attack it ai could probably
attack and rewrite the blockchain for almost every cryptocurrency other than bitcoin like
i don't think that's true ethereum has finality like you know ethereum is safe from any kind of AI attack. Are you making the bull? Hold on.
I just catch you making a...
Because that's my bull case.
You just made my bull case so well.
In an AI-generated world,
real-world experiences,
like touching somebody in person,
actually conversing in the real world with a person,
that's going to be a huge flex in five years
because so many lower- and middle-class people
are going to be stuck being programmed by AIs all day long because that's the only way to make money and anyone who can actually just not
go on the internet and like sit in a cafe and like talk to a real person and not have their
shit hacked by AI because they own Bitcoin and Ethereum that's going to have real value that's
digital real estate 10 years from now. Ethereum is a blockchain It's not going to prevent some kind of AI cyber warfare agent from hacking your phone.
Right?
Like all it's all it's really at the chain level.
You just said it probably couldn't be that easily hacked by AI right now.
Correct?
Yes.
No, it couldn't be big, but like that's the Ethereum like chain.
I might, might, might, so here's, here's something I expected to hear from from mike that i didn't hear which was a fairly simple thesis that people are actually going to start
paying fees for stable coins and that's why ether is going to go up or you know the market will see
that and like that's a reasonable thesis would you agree with that i didn't say that what i said
was the optionality because i think these are long duration options with no expiration, essentially, right?
They're reverse options.
Effectively, you always have the ability to turn on feed generation, just like a startup
who's selling you food delivery.
They use VC money to subsidize delivering you the food cheaper than it really cost initially,
and then later they gouge you once you're addicted to it.
So if I'm Ethereum and I'm smart and I'm a complex organism that's decentralized and
I want to embed myself, I do exactly what you said.
I get super embedded in all the stable coins and I don't charge any fees.
So you become so addicted to my rails that when I do finally turn on the fees and Clarity
Act comes through and other people start charging for stable coins and the banks start being
more supportive and the U.S. government fully adopts it, you're already so embedded in the ecosystem you can't you can't
be pulled out so i just look i think that's optionality value it's a call option that's
possible it's it's certainly possible but like you know ethereum like what ethereum is actually
doing technically and increasing their throughput increasing their their TPS, is just making more
and more and more block space.
It's kind of like, imagine like if Rolex, because the way Rolex makes its watches expensive
is they underproduce them, right?
They make it really hard to buy one.
Imagine if Rolex changed its business model to, we're going to open up a massive factory
in Shenzhen and flood the market with infinity Rolexes.
That's kind of what Ethereum is doing with block space.
They're making it extremely cheap.
The same thing is the value of the token.
You may argue that they're related in the long run,
and maybe that's correct, but it is not as an investor.
Again, I'm a professional investor.
I'm not a technologist.
I'm very well-versed in technology.
I like AI, et cetera, but I'm not sitting around coding.
I don't care about a lot of using Ethereum on chain.
I don't care about that personally.
I care about how much is a token,
how much is one Ethereum going to be worth
in three to five years?
Now, you could argue that if they make
block space less valuable,
that that will eventually affect the value of the token.
I'm not so sure.
And again, if you want to make that argument,
I'd love to hear it.
But if you're making the argument that block space
is going to be more or less valuable,
I don't really care.
Yeah, I mean, like,
if you have a lot of people
who are basically just long Ethereum
because, like, you know, they have money
and Ethereum is a thing you can buy
and like they like vitalik and he sounds smart and so you know everyone just piles into it
and that's one argument the problem is that's basically been the reason that crypto has pumped
for the past 10 years especially anything that's except bitcoin right so like
maybe that trade is a little bit exhausted
now that we've got to, you know, a half trillion dollar charity that doesn't have any revenue.
Like, I mean, at some point that trade exhausts, right? Um, I mean, maybe, maybe if, maybe
if the Mike Alfred thesis of like, look, you know, up only until the singularity, like
AI is booming.
So because people will be rich from AI,
they'll have money sloshing around from the AI trades going well,
and they'll just rotate into crypto.
I think that's a reasonable bull thesis.
But I was just wondering if there was anything else.
I love you.
You re-summarize what I say,
but you leave out dozens of things.
No, that's not
the entirety of it. But yes, I do agree that AI is going to make some people extremely wealthy.
In fact, I see some people in the room throwing up smiley faces and whatnot who have already been
made extremely wealthy, so wealthy that they're independently wealthy as I am, where we don't
have to go to work ever, ever again for multiple generations, right?
It's like an endowed.
Yeah, unfortunately, you know,
I haven't got there, but one day.
One day, like I'm a pump, I'll be in the pump.
Look, your philosophy on trading is different than mine.
You're very focused on avoiding 5% and 10%
and 20% drawdowns, and I'm not.
And the reason why I capture more 10% and 20x
is I ignore even up to 30% and 50% drawdowns and I'm not. And the reason why I capture more 10 and 20 X's is I ignore even up
to 30 and 50% drawdowns if I'm confident on a two to three year point to point basis that I'm
correct. And I think this is actually the only way to beat the machines now because the algos and
the bots and the quant traders and all those guys, they're going to know more about the direction of
the market in the next millisecond, in the next five milliseconds, the next few seconds, few
minutes, because they see everything, the option chains, the flows, they're in every
market, they're arbitraging every market, they're smarter than you, you're a smart guy,
but they're smarter than both of us about where markets are going in the next five minutes.
What AI and algo's...
Yeah, I don't care about fighting the shot.
I'm interested.
Let me finish the point, though.
What they cannot do, what they absolutely cannot do,
is tell you anything about exactly what will happen a year from now
or two years from now or three years from now on a point-to-point basis.
And what I see a lot of investors doing and traders doing
is trying to over-engineer to avoid even the smallest
of temporary dislocations and drawdowns, 5%.
In crypto, up to 25% or 30% is literally like nothing.
In some of these small cap equities, 50% drawdowns are a regular occurrence.
In fact, in all the stocks that I've made 10 or 20x on in the last three years,
every single one went down at least 30%, 40% every year, sometimes twice.
But at the end of the period, they were up, in some cases, 30, 40 percent.
Sorry, 30, 40 X off the bottom. I mean, iron in particular has been up over 50 X off the bottom.
And at one point it was up almost 80 X off the bottom. But you had to go through three 50 percent
plus drawdowns over those 36 months. Right. So that's how you get really wealthy. Now,
can everybody do that?
Does everybody have the mental fortitude
and the stability to sort of look past?
Okay, but I mean,
suppose you do have the mental fortitude.
Suppose you do, right?
Like, there's still a question.
Should I put my mental fortitude money into ETH?
Or should I put it into IRON?
Or should I put it into IWM calls?
And I put it in my answer would be all of them.
I mean, my exposure, I'm exposed to exposed yeah but you see so you have to decide what your percentages are right
like i mean should you do like a global market they have the highest edge at the bottom of the
cycle i was sitting on the board of iris energy which is now called iron so i had more insight
into what all of the top 30 bitcoin miners slash AI, future AI infrastructure.
And by the way, I viewed them as infrastructure developers at that time.
I called them Bitcoin data centers, not Bitcoin miners, before anyone else on the market called them that.
And I was talking about the AI conversion opportunity before the market because I was in the business.
This is what I was saying earlier.
The real edge that allows you to size up and hold positions comes from knowing
more than the other market participants. I come in these spaces to share what I know,
recognizing that the vast majority of people in these spaces don't know anything,
right? And just trying to be helpful. And I enjoy the banter and I learn a bit occasionally,
right? But the reality is like the answer to the question of how to allocate is where's your edge?
I think you in particular should have an edge in Ethereum because you have it in your name and you know more about it than I do.
But you're not going to make money in Ethereum than you are, not because I know more, but because I have more conviction on a point-to-point base about where it's going.
But why? Why do you have conviction that Ethereum is bullish? That's my question.
I walked you through the things and then you made the argument for me.
You said AI cannot hack Bitcoin at the protocol level.
You said that.
That is the most important thing in the next five years.
The most – look at the software industry year to date.
Look what's happening to freaking, like, Adobe and Salesforce.
And look what's happening to freaking stack overflow the fucking platform
collapsed nobody wants to use it because ai can basically disintermediate that whole business in
five minutes so the only thing that matters the next three to five years for investors what are
the things that are so immune so decentralized so removed so like have defenses that they cannot be
attacked and they cannot be
disintermediated by AI.
If you don't have an answer for that, you will lose money compared to somebody who does.
My answer to that is truly decentralized systems with immutability.
So that's Bitcoin and maybe Ethereum, right?
Bitcoin much larger than Ethereum because I think Bitcoin is much more defensible.
AIs would have to take over a million robots and then attack the physical data centers
and commandeer them, right,
in order to actually attack Bitcoin.
Like, people just don't understand,
like, all this digital security
that you have around your bank account
and your identity,
it's nothing compared to Bitcoin.
It'll all be hacked
before Bitcoin will be hacked.
It is largely immune, at least today,
and particularly with some more
protocol upgrades in the future. So Bitcoin and Ethereum, right? That's number one. Then I go beyond
technology, right? Look at what's cheap right now in the economy. Stuff like alcohol brands,
right? Like AI is not going to make alcohol tomorrow. Like AI is not going to, somebody
who likes Jack Daniels or Guinness, right? Or Pacifico or Michelelob ultra like they're not going to change to an ai generated beer brand
because those those brands take decades of conditioning and marketing in order to get
people to like them and you'll find if you try to serve somebody like jack daniels jim beam they
will not drink it they'll say give me something else give me vodka or beer i don't want whiskey
unless you give me my freaking jack you know that is what
you call immunity to ai there are other areas of the economy that i think are similar right but
i want to be in if i'm in a digital space i'm not going to the most disruptable part of the economy
i don't want to go straight to software there are a lot of trad fi goons right now like you should
be buying work day and you should be buying salesforce and adobe because they're cheap and
i'm like yeah because you don't understand ai right you didn't understand bitcoin you didn't understand ai data
centers now you expect me to think that buying overvalued software stocks that are going to be
absolutely clobbered by it i mean there is there is kind of like a version of this thesis that i've
heard from ethotaku and his thesis is it's not like his thesis is kind of a bit like yours but
it's not like immunity to hacking it's specifically that uh in the ai world um trad fi will have too
much latency for like ais that are going to be operating at significantly superhuman speeds
and so in that world like finance is actually going to shift the blockchain and when it goes to blockchain
it's going to go to the incumbents because of like network effects and you know risk aversion
and stuff like that and that means ethereum and solana and maybe one or two others if they can
make it in the remaining time and so so actually finance so his thesis is basically that all the
finance that currently happens in the banking system will actually have to quite rapidly shift to the blockchain system,
which is quite a radical thesis.
Do you believe that?
Do you think something like that's going to happen?
For a couple of years now,
and I've been talking about agents wanting to use algorithmic money.
They're not going to wait for the Fedwire system to send a wire.
If it does a job, it's going to want to be paid immediately.
It's going to want it to be immutable.
It's going to want it to be done on a blockchain immediately it's going to want it to be immutable it's going to want it to be done on a blockchain it's going to want it to be systematic money
fiat money is not systematic money it's it's funny money it takes forever to send it there's
there's too many restrictions on how you can use it um so yes almost everything that ai's do at
scale is going to require a monetization mechanism that looks much more like Ethereum
and much more like Bitcoin
and much more like stablecoins than it looks like
the thesis mechanism.
I don't think this thesis is very bullish
for Bitcoin because
Bitcoin doesn't have the TPS.
Bitcoin devs are slow.
I'm saying Ethereum. I said Ethereum
first on purpose.
Yeah, I think it's more bullish for Ethereum.
It's a lot more bullish for Ethereum.
Look, you're not going to be doing agentic commerce on layer one Bitcoin.
If you're doing it on Bitcoin, you'll be doing it on some layer two or layer three.
And these are the types of things that haven't been built yet fully.
I mean, people are talking about the lightning.
All the Bitcoin, the Bitcoin layer twos all suck.
And the Bitcoin protocol is never going to upgrade
So if you if this thesis if they're sort of like a fataku
Like finance moves to blockchain because AI's need to be very fast if that happens
That's extremely bearish for Bitcoin. I'm very bullish for aetherium and probably very bullet made a huge
Huge error and thinking in my opinion and that is that you sound like the guy who said well
I'm never gonna use the internet because my 1998 modem blocks my phone line and it beeps really
loudly and my kids can't talk on the phone when I'm using it it takes forever to loan the to load
the porn videos it takes like 45 minutes and and I'm never gonna use the internet because of that
no like that's ridiculous like nothing's happened yet bitcoin is a
multi-hundred year emerging phenomenon in money and we're like 16 years or 18 years or whatever
however many years 15 i don't even know how many years 17 years in right um and so yeah it looks
like the 1996 or 1998 modem but that has nothing to do with what the consumer internet felt like
15 years later and so you're making a huge assumption that the way that we have it now but you see the way it's always
gonna be i'm telling you that it's just flat out yeah everything's accelerating the the bitcoin
the bitcoin devs are definitely not accelerating right like ai is accelerating the bitcoin devs
don't need i'm talking about second order and third order, second layer and third layer.
I'm not talking about the... The problem with Bitcoin L2s and L3s is there are fundamental limitations built into Bitcoin's core protocol
that make it difficult to do them properly or basically impossible.
For authentic commerce, you'll have more rules.
rules and you'll know it's not like humans that are going to do something wacky on the lightning
And you'll know it's not like humans that are going to do something wacky on the Lightning Network.
network you're going to have thousands of agents who are all working in concert who have very
specific sets of rules engagement that they've that they've developed with each other that you'll
be able to model pretty easily because they're they're agents they're not humans so they're not
going to do as many crazy things as humans do and so you'll be able to build systems that are much
more precise and algorithmic for how to interact with the chain, how often to reconcile with the chain, how to source liquidity for certain types of transactions at certain times that's much more efficient.
Sort of like self-driving cars have gotten so much better, right?
Like there's so many fewer edge cases because the computing power being pointed at it and the algorithms and the software around it have gotten the lasers gotten so so good that you're actually safer doing fsd and tesla right now than driving yourself
and the same thing will happen the the the best yeah layer twos and layer threes on bitcoin will
be completely algorithmic too they won't be humans like trying to source liquidity for one
one transaction on lightning it'll be literally millions of agents on a layer two platform
particular use case that uses yeah but like if you if you want to build an l2 for ais you'll
build it on eth not bitcoin because bitcoin has limitations that make it difficult to build proper
l2s that are actually trustless right the bit the l2s that you know i looked at it's a little bit a
while ago okay things have moved on a little bit since then, but basically every story
about Bitcoin L2s is how they suck.
And each one tries to suck a little bit less, but they're still nowhere near as
good as Ethereum or Solana or anything else.
Well, I just smashed another 20,000 shares of the high shares.
Which one?
Bitcoin or Ethereum?
I bought ETH. I bought 20,000.
Well, I mean, your commentaries make me so much more fucking bullish on ETH.
I mean, look, what I'm talking about now is bullish for ETH, right? Like if you buy this
thesis, the kind of Ethotaku, you know, all finance has to move to the blockchain because
it's all going to be AIs and they're going to require very fast speeds. That is hyper
bullish for ETH. And you need to be talking about like, you know, $100,000
ETH, not like $6,000. This is why I like that because every time we talk, you start off saying
you wildly disagree with me. And then by the end, you've made my thesis stronger and more bullish
by the end. So I love you, buddy. Thank you so much. I mean, when it's $100,000 over the next
five or 10 years, I'll come back. The question it. The question is just, is this going to happen, right?
The question is not, I agree with you that that would be very bullish.
The question is whether this is going to happen.
I don't see what stops it.
That's where you and I disagree.
What I'm connecting to is at the base level of the compute demand right now.
I'm telling you, it is fucking insane and it's
accelerating it is so much bigger than even ai bulls think it is right now there's a good analogy
for this which is the internet even internet bulls were wrong the internet bulls in the late 90s were
bullish on internet stocks and they thought the internet would be a cool thing that we would use
and they just totally missed that meta right and google and some of
these companies were going to come out and be the biggest companies in the world that was not that
was completely non-consensus and non-obvious in 1999-2000 it seems obvious now because we know
what happened i'm telling you the ai thing that's happening right now is probably bigger than that
and it's happening faster because it's it's accelerating on internet rails the internet was distributed on a wire like wired in modems on your phone line right and it was like one person
at a time got aol and they got instant messenger and then it became a communication platform beyond
email for a while it's just professors sending emails to each other and people watching porn
and then aol instant messenger came out i was like oh cool i can use this to talk to my friends
without calling them,
which is kind of the precursor for everybody texting on their phone.
So anyway, like, long story short,
AI is going like five times faster than that. And I suspect that even AI bulls right now are going to be way too bearish
about where this plays out.
And if that's correct, then there's going to be a total remaking
of the entire financial superstructure,
which is going to cause things like Ethereum to go completely apeshit. The timeline for that and
exactly how high it goes, it sort of doesn't matter to me because when I take these positions,
I take them with the idea that I'm willing to hold them essentially until the full thesis plays out.
So if we get out three years from now and it hasn't really gone yet and it still seems
like it's going, I'll still be holding. If we go up 10x on Ethereum in the next three months,
I'll probably sell some. It's really more being responsive to where I think we are in the cycle
and how delayed or pulled forward that phenomenon is at any given time as it reflected in asset
prices. And that's where the nuance comes in. It's like, I'm bullish long-term on the trajectory of AI. I'm bullish long-term on
the trajectory of decentralized finance. I'm bullish on the long-term of sound money.
But at any given time, one of those or multiple of those things could be too cheap relative to
where it should be on that curve. And at other times, it could be too dear. It could be too
expensive relative to where it is on that curve. And's where that's the artistry of investing right it's like one thing
to get the big top level thesis right it's another thing to to buy those things at the right times
at the right levels and the right sizes to get the sizing correct and then it's another thing
all together to have the guts to hold them longer yeah actually here's here's let me give you a
counter thesis okay so suppose like all the stuff about like people buying NFTs, that's all bunk. That's not going to happen. But the stuff about like AI is going to force all of finance onto the blockchain. Suppose that is going to happen. Right. And hear me out on this. Suppose that between now and when it happens, some other blockchain appears that's much more optimized for AIs, because Ethereum was very much
built with human users in mind, right? Nobody's ever built a blockchain from the ground up saying
this is purely going to be used by AIs, humans can fuck off, right? So if that happens, this thesis
could be right, and you're putting, you know, or we're all, we're all putting money into a half trillion dollar charity. That's like Vitalik's like socialist, you know, LARP.
And it actually doesn't capture most of the thesis.
Most of the thesis goes to some other thing that doesn't even exist yet.
Now I'm not saying that's going to happen, but it's just something to bear in mind.
Well, my position in Iron and Cypher are probably, I'm just doing the math.
I'm just doing the math.
Yeah.
Let me finish the thought, though.
Iron is better, right?
Let me finish the thought, though.
Anything that's on the AI hardware side is super safe
because no matter what happens with AI,
assuming it's bullish,
the hardware side is going to be bullish, right?
This isn't even just hardware, man.
This is even more fundamental.
This is the land.
This is the electricity.
This is a connection with the electricity grid,
the ability to suck large amounts of electricity
to control that. The buildings, which are 40 and 50 year live
CapEx investments, they're not hard work. That is a different trade.
It's a different trade. Four to five year turnover. The buildings, the land is
infinite duration and the buildings can be 40, 50 years. But let me finish part.
Sizing matters. And so everything you said could be true, but also
I don't care because my my iron
and cipher positions are like 30 times bigger i mean i would i would say i'd say your positions
in you know like physical ai hardware infrastructure is an incredible trade it's basically free money
like you know it literally almost can't go down so i'm i'm definitely it
seems like free it seems like free money now after i've made like 100 million dollars in those names
but it was not money three years ago they went down 50 or more three times i took
20 to 40 million dollar drawdowns three times in the last three years yeah make 100 million
i think basically i think basically any of this stuff, like post-chat GPT investments in AI hardware
is basically picking up free money.
But I'm talking from the crypto side.
I don't think Ethereum is as low risk a trade as that.
I think Ethereum is a high risk trade because it is vulnerable to disruption.
There are plenty of versions of the AI future that exclude Ethereum.
There are plenty that exclude Bitcoin.
There are none that exclude, like, silicon chips, right?
I don't necessarily agree, but it doesn't matter.
I've sized it with the idea that my conviction for Ethereum is a lot lower than Bitcoin.
Yeah, yeah.
I'm not i'm not
trying to criticize you i'm trying to criticize your personal position i grant that your sizing
and positioning and diversification is fantastic i'm talking more about for the benefit of the
other people in the space like should i you know yolo because some people might not be able to buy
iron right like i can't buy it because i don't have a trad by account so i'm only able to buy
crypto so i have to decide what within crypto am I going to buy.
And there might be other people in that position wanting to make that kind of decision.
Yeah, that's all well and good.
I would just say from a risk standpoint, I think Bitcoin and Ethereum in particular are among the lowest risk.
Now, I think of risk not as volatility, right, or not getting the price
you want at a certain time. I think of risk as the risk of cataclysmic, catastrophic loss,
which I think is the classical definition. But there are a lot of newbies, a lot of traders
that showed up since COVID, right? There are a lot of people who think that short-term volatility
is the same thing as risk. And maybe for those people, it is because they're over-trading. And so downward movements will cause major losses.
They don't cause major loss for me. I just buy more of things. And my view right now is that
the risk of a zero outcome in Bitcoin is effectively almost zero. And Ethereum is up
there close to Bitcoin. I think even Apple could go to zero before Ethereum goes to zero because Apple's a company.
And if consumer tastes change and the Apple ecosystem does not, it will.
But let's just say, hypothetically, it becomes Kodak because they failed integrated AI and people are able to get better experiences using AI on non-Apple devices.
Again, total hypothetical because I'm not arguing that Apple's going to zero.
Again, total hypothetical because I'm not arguing that Apple's going to zero.
But I actually think because Apple's a centralized company with a balance sheet and customers that if the world turned against Apple, Apple has a bigger risk of a zero outcome than Ethereum does because no matter how much you hate Ethereum, you can't shut it off.
So as long as some nerdy guy wants to build a centralized application, you'll always have a reason to have some Ethereum.
And you won't always have a reason to have Apple shares
if the whole company is collapsing.
Just because you can't shut a blockchain off
doesn't mean the price doesn't go to shit, right?
Like there are plenty of blockchains from 2013 or 2011
that are still operating.
You know, you want to buy some Novacoin,
you know, you can't shut Novacoin off,
it's still operating, right?
It's like, no.
That's a reasonably good argument but i don't think ethereum is is vertcoin or nova chain or whatever i mean it's
well you even said earlier you just don't like that there isn't enough fees but i don't really
think that it's not like you buy ethereum for a dividend yield if ethereum's proposition was
and by the way staking is this is sort of a a form of dividend yield, but let's just say that their value proposition was, oh, we're going to start charging a lot of money to stablecoin issuers, and that's what we're going to use to send money to you as an Ethereum holder.
That's a very different proposition than what I think it is today.
But that would be pretty cool if they did.
Well, it's a charity with a token today, right?
It operates as a charity.
It gives people block space, um, that they, that essentially aren't paying for, right?
Cause fees are so low.
If you have, if you use mainnet recently, like it's ridiculous.
Um, but here's, here's another way to look at that.
And this is probably getting into the weeds a bit, but one of the trade-offs that Ethereum
made that was, that turned out to be a good bet was they deliberately decided not to be very innovative in their technology, right? So
they're using kind of, you know, shitty smart contract languages, uh, you know, like Viper and,
and stuff like that, that are kind of, uh, you know, not great, right? But they, but they work and they have all of the, um, they have the devs, right? So all of the devs develop using the Ethereum stack. Now, one thing that AI coding will do is it will sort of remove that moat. So, you know, people, um, you know, people who code in Viper or Solidity, right? Or any of the other you know popular ETH languages and know the ins and outs of the Ethereum ecosystem
That's kind of like a moat at the moment because if you have an alternative chain that's trying to compete against Ethereum
They can't easily
They can't easily spin up
10,000 new developers who know their language, right? So Ethereum's moat is a moat of it's hard to quickly spin up more devs. AI
removes that moat. So it actually, like AI is both bullish and bearish for Ethereum, I think.
It's bullish because I think blockchain actually does have a good synergy with AI, which is that
it's fast and it's open 24 hours a day, unlike normal banking. And normal banking is never going
to fix that.
Certainly not on the kind of AI timelines people are talking about.
So it's almost inevitable. Actually, I think that, that the, that the EpoTaku big brain thesis of like
crypto is inevitable because of AI.
I think that's actually probably true, but the problem is right.
Ethereum is like the worst blockchain and the reasons that it gets away with being banned are reasons that go away once you have AI.
Right.
So, you know, it's kind of unclear to me how that all plays out.
I mean, and also in terms of buying it, right?
It seems like you're shilling Jensen, man.
It seems like you're shilling.
It's literally like a blockchain specifically
built for agent model intelligence like that's exactly what you're shilling yeah but but you
know maybe there'll be another jensen and like a jensen killer and just who knows what the fuck
jensen's a crypto project that's not even live yet it's not going to come out for like another year yeah so so
basically like um as as this plays out if people are looking to position right if they position
in ethereum now at a price which is like historically quite expensive right um and we
get some kind of drawdown because of like trump does tariffs 2.0 or russia or iran or something i don't know
and then ethereum goes down to like you know back down to a thousand or whatever right and then at
that point ai kind of starts hotting up and then this you know gensyn this kind of like blockchain
for ais only kind of appears and that actually starts getting all of that activity like that
could be kind of rough right uh that's that's the reason that I'm not currently allocated to ETH.
So let's look at the chart, though.
I mean, the all-time high is 6.
It's at 3,300.
Going to 1,000 now, a drop of 60-something percent, almost 70%.
That would imply to me that we're in a large scale macro event, uh, similar to 2022 or, uh,
the end of 2018 or 2011 or 2008, 2009, right? Like those types of events, uh, maybe March of,
of, of 2020, very briefly, right before the fed and treasury stepped in and backstopped everything.
very briefly right before the Fed and Treasury stepped in and backstopped everything.
I just, again, as I said earlier in my opening comments, like how are you going to get that
type of liquidity environment in a midterm year where the U.S. president is literally
going to move heaven and earth to run the economy hot at the same time that the manufacturing,
the ISM and PMI has not flipped to 50 yet.
The Federal Reserve is probably still
50 or 100 bips over where trump's going to try to push them to uh by the end of the year and
among many other levers he's going to try to pull uh to do that and you're arguing that ethereum has
a chance of going to that i think it's much more likely ethereum is going to six or eight
statistically probabilistically yeah you you could disagree but i think you're
going to lose a lot like once again you're going to be like i'm not retired yet i'm not independent
wealthy i'm like the reason why i am is because i'm going to take this trade like i'm going to
stay long yeah maybe you'll go a lot higher yeah i mean nobody's so if if you're kind of poor and
you have a thousand dollars and you put it into ETH at
3500 and ETH goes to seven thousand then you have two thousand dollars. You're still kind of poor, right? Like it's not gonna retire you
um so like
You know, it's not crazy. I mean, I I kind of believe you on the macro. I think it's like it does kind of look bullish at the moment
But you know macro has like a tendency to sort of change like people change
their macro opinions every three months um just to pause you real quick you keep starting with
these premises in this case a red a total red herring like just let's make up a number let's
assume the guy investing has a million dollars is it a is it a bad decision from an expected
value standpoint to put a million dollars in the theorem is it a good decision to do it if it's a thousand well in terms of like in terms of it doesn't matter what the amount is
like it doesn't from my view putting a thousand dollars in anything doesn't matter because even
if i make a hundred x it doesn't change anything even if i make a thousand x it doesn't change
anything for me i mean if you if you want to analyze it you know at a sort of deep level, you'd look at KellyBets.
You'd say, well, look, my total bankroll is X.
What's the upside?
What's the downside risk?
What's the volatility?
That kind of thing.
You'd look at portfolio theory.
Now, if your upside for ETH is like a double, that's a 2X,
and it's a pretty high volatility asset,
your kind of like optimal allocation in portfolio theory is not very good. No, but it has been pretty high volatility asset, you're kind of like optimal allocation and portfolio theory is not very good.
No, but it has been a high volatility.
It hasn't been that volatile recently.
It's been extremely volatile.
It's been extremely volatile.
Not compared to like 2017.
I was there in 2017.
I bought some at 25 and 30 bucks.
The annualized rolling volatility
of Ether is fucking huge.
I can't remember what, but it's a very volatile asset.
It's traveled from $4,500
down to $1,300
and back up again.
That's extreme volatility.
The volatility is objectively
compressed relative to history.
Same with Bitcoin. That's one of the reasons
why I'm still lagging into some IBIT call options further up, because I'm very confident at some point,
again, predicting timing is impossible. At some point, volatility returns to this sector,
probably related to the manufacturing cycle turning over in the US, probably related to
the election cycle, probably related to liquidity conditions, maybe some geopolitics thrown in there for good measure. But at some point,
the volatility comes back. And I'd just be really surprised in this environment with AI CapEx doing
what it's doing, that the next major volatility move in Ethereum is down. To me, that just is
ridiculous. I mean, it's fair enough. I mean, its next move probably is up, but maybe not that much.
I don't know.
It has kind of crabbed around a lot, right?
It has been up and down.
I mean, when you look at these things, you have to consider what's the sharp ratio of this instrument.
If you really are targeting 8,000, uh, instrument. Um, you know, like if you really are targeting like 8,000,
um, that's cool. But like, you know, given the volatility of the asset, if your upside target
is 8,000, the optimal allocation is not very big, right? You should be allocating maybe like 1% to
it or something like that. Right. Um, which is fine, but like, you know you know i mean if you're targeting a hundred thousand because you
you think yeah this is fucking happening right the whole of finance is going to come on chain
the optimal allocation is a lot higher so it does like that's a very big difference so it does kind
of you just tell me i need to consider the sharp ratio when i make my investments did you just tell
did you just tell me that like i mean i'm not saying it for, I'm not saying it for you.
I'm not saying it for you.
I'm saying it for everyone who's listening, right?
Because people might be a bit confused.
Like, you know, does it matter if you only have a thousand versus if you have a million?
No, it doesn't.
You have to, like, you have to, you know, do Kelly bets.
You have to look at sharp ratios.
You have to look into portfolio theory a bit.
But basically, the conclusion of all of that shit is basically if your upside is like a 2x, you shouldn't really
allocate that much. No, that's not, it depends.
2x in what time frame?
What return?
It depends on the volatility, right?
The volatility depends on the volatility.
What time frame?
A 2x over three years
for most investors is a pretty darn
good return, right?
It's like a low-
It is, but you know, for portfolio theory, you have to consider the volatility.
If you compound it 20 or 25 or 30% for 30 years, you're going to be a billionaire, right?
Yeah, but this is why portfolio theory has volatility in it because, you know, some of that volatility is down as well, right?
I know a bit about portfolio theory because my portfolio made me retired.
I'm trying to help you get retired.
So you've got to stop teaching me about stuff that got me retired.
All I'm saying is that what that will tell you is if you have a very volatile asset
and you don't think it's going to go up that much,
if you go up a bit but not much, then you probably shouldn't allocate much.
You should allocate a little bit.
Large dollars, look, I have a lot of things that i think could do 30 percent kegers or even more
but you don't want to put 100 of your money in things that you think could do 30 or 40 percent
because those things have a correlation of one whenever there's a major liquidity
issue right so like everything yeah goes to one and then everything drops together and so i like
to add stuff i have a whole bunch of stuff that doesn't look anything
like bitcoin or it doesn't look anything like ai data centers it literally is the most boring
stuff in the world but as long as i buy it the right price it provides the appropriate income
and appropriate balance yeah i mean honestly mike this this point is probably the one that everyone
from this space should take away which is you shouldn't be all in crypto you should have a
diversified portfolio and a lot of crypto dgens would have much better lives if they did that and i think on that note i will see great
great chat but just to be clear like i've said that in every major conversation i've had about
crypto over eight or nine years now so like this is not a new thing like anybody who's listened to
me i talk about energy companies i talk about dividend stocks
i talk about consumer staples i talk about alcohol companies i talk about bond proxies barbell
portfolios right like it's fine if other people want to chase crypto with 100 percent of net worth
i mean look how that's turned out think of all the crypto hedge fund guys who look like geniuses
in 2021 who haven't made any money in
like four years right and a lot of cases burned up a lot of that capital and this is what happens
in markets there's a tremendous amount of mean reversion so whatever's worked really well for
too long like at some point it stops working as well and then eventually goes negative uh relative
to other things that have underperformed um And you're seeing that sort of rotation happening right now
in the U.S. capital markets where a lot of the stuff
that was getting beat up at the end of the year
had the worst year ever, the bottom of December, right?
Like the end of December, you got tax loss selling
and technical selling and whatnot.
And then all of a sudden, the calendar flips to January 1
on a Friday and everything just lifted up magically.
This mean reversion for you, right? Like stuff's gone too far and it it overshot its valuation on one side and now it's coming back um so I look I appreciate you making that comment but I would
have argued to you five or seven years ago you're too you're too into crypto and not on into equities
and other stuff because I don't think anyone here needs to hear that, honestly,
because almost everybody here has heard me say,
you should be diversified.
I was just going to say, I mean, you guys, obviously,
I think most of us would agree that monetary policy,
because obviously if you're deciding between Bitcoin and Ethereum,
I think that monetary policy has historically led to Ethereum
outperforming Bitcoin.
I mean, what's crazy is you look at even through pandemics,
even through that area from mid-2019 all the way
until kind of the end of 2021, Ethereum outperforming Bitcoin.
And I would think that that's mainly because of loose monetary policy.
And I think that that would be the main reason
why I believe Ethereum will outperform Bitcoin for the next few years.
What's even crazier, and I don't think it's a good idea to, you know, you got to know what the hell you're doing with altcoins, obviously.
But others versus Bitcoin, that's everything outside the top 10 of market cap, crypto market cap.
That even outperformed Bitcoin through pandemic, through all that type of stuff.
A lot of people still, like Mike was saying, a lot of people still found a way to lose money with altcoins though, because there's so many of them. You got to know what
you're doing. And I think that right now I'm not personally not buying altcoins, but I think
Ethereum is the most attractive thing in my, I mean, I have the, I have the view that we probably
will maybe re-see, I don't think we're going to go really below 1800, but you could see,
re-see 1800, 2000, those areas for Ethereum.
I think it could rhyme with 2022, a much milder version, because energy looks so bullish right now for maybe the next four to six months.
Maybe I'm just being too paranoid.
But I do think that Ethereum does look pretty attractive.
And I think that into the end of this decade, I mean, I don't know about $20K or $30K Ethereum, but $10K, $15K, big areas into the end of this decade. I mean, I don't know about 20K or 30K Ethereum, but 10K, 15K, big areas since the end of this decade.
Bitcoin, probably at least 150K next few years
into this decade.
I mean, it's crazy how time flies.
I mean, we're already in 2026, a few more years there.
Maybe it could go up to 300, 400K.
I don't know.
It's hard to say in my opinion,
but I know in 2021 the narrative was
kind of crazy because so many people were disappointed with bitcoin and how ethereum
outperformed how all these new all coins outperformed like solana's or cardano's
all that and then this previous cycle was kind of the opposite bitcoin was so dominant and the
number one reason i think was mainly monetary policy. I think a lot of people underestimated how powerful monetary policy is in terms of that. So my guess is probably blow off
top for, you know, ether, a lot of things, not too crazy, but you know, into the end of this decade.
And then probably the 2030s will rhyme with, I mean,'m a patterns guy i'll admit it i mean probably
the 2030s will have some rhymes with the 70s the 1930s 2000 2010 i don't even know how to say that
decade was the double o's um but those areas so i do think that that's what's that's what's to look
for there so yeah i think that's a pretty astute point. I mean, the Fed raised rates 500 basis points and basically crushed risk asset markets in
2022.
And I think the mistake people have made is because some assets and some indexes have
come back over the last three years, that that means that we're in the same type of
environment and we're having a similar cycle as we had in the kind of 2017 crypto bull
market and then the 2021 version.
This period hasn't felt like a bull market in crypto at all
because it hasn't been a bull market
because we actually haven't had the correct conditions.
We didn't even start to get rate cuts again
until relatively recently, right?
And those rate cuts, according to Trump
and people that want to run the economy hot,
they're not enough, right?
And you can take whatever views you want on that.
I personally don't think the Fed is very independent,
so I'm not too bothered by the people who are saying that Trump's messing with that
because I never thought it was independent in the first place.
I think it's actually retarded to say the Fed's independent.
I think it shows a lack of understanding of how the world actually works.
And basically, you're basically a cuck for the TradFi system telling you that this is
how everything works and you should believe the masters and you should believe the authorities
when they tell you that we're here at the Fed, we're nice old men that are here to look
out for the American public.
No, you're protecting the bankers and the plumbing of the banking system.
That's why you're buying $40 billion of debt.
You can call it QA or not.
The reality is your buddies from the banking sector who are, by the way, when Jerome Powell in the press conference says,
hey, we talked to our contacts around the industry. No, they're just like Goldman Sachs bankers
and JP Morgan bankers. And they tell them, hey, the plumbing of the banking system is not looking
too great. Can you help us out? No, it's not to help the American public. It's to
make sure we protect asset prices and make sure we protect the banking sector.
make sure we protect asset prices and make sure we protect the banking sector.
Right. And so like maybe it is a good thing. Forget about politics. Maybe it's a good,
maybe it is time for Jerome Powell to go. Right. Maybe it is time for rates to come down enough
further to actually be a real business cycle in the U S like maybe it is too restrictive if the
ISM PMI can't go over 50 for four years. Like maybe that is too restrictive if the ISM PMI can't go over 50 for four years. Maybe that is too restrictive.
Maybe it's objectively restrictive and it's not even a political comment.
So to your point, if we haven't had a crypto cycle,
because we haven't had the right conditions for a crypto bull market,
then everybody has been wrong about what's going to happen and what's going to happen.
What we're essentially experiencing right now is the gold-silver rally that predates previous crypto cycles because we haven't had a crypto cycle.
So we're actually at the early, early stages of when money starts to rotate
into the risk part of the curve that includes cryptos beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. And that
means that we maybe have a good 12, 18 months ahead of us. And that the exact dynamic you
described where Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin, which typically happens as that cycle progresses, a good 12, 18 months ahead of us. And that the exact dynamic you described
where Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin,
which typically happens as that cycle progresses,
that might start to happen now or soon.
And that actually isn't bad for Bitcoin
because Bitcoin actually posts its largest return
when the rest of crypto is outperforming it.
That's the piece that the maxis always get wrong.
They're so angry about telling other people
how they can invest and how they can spend their money. And if you don't do it the way i do it in 100 bitcoin
then you're an idiot and you're a scammer and blah blah those people are largely dinosaurs and
mostly dying out at this point um serious like more nuanced professional investors don't care
about any of that stuff because it's just noise right like your personal dogma about which crypto asset you like is sort of irrelevant.
I post about it occasionally because it's fun, but like in terms of investing, it's really dumb
to get too sucked into that. But Bitcoin will probably perform best when Ethereum is outperforming
it. And again, that's a statement that'll get you tossed out of Bitcoin rooms, but I don't really
care because I'm only actually concerned about what's going to happen and profiting off of it. That's what your job as an investor. It's not to become
an acolyte or a cult member or a priest or any of that shit. It's just to figure out what's going
to happen and take advantage of it. And if I'm right, and we are at the part of the cycle that
I think we're at, we're actually at the beginning of the main part of the crypto bull market that
didn't happen because we've effectively been trying to work our way back to baseline from a deep bear market over the past four years.
And that's where I think we are.
I think the small caps right now are confirming that.
I think biotech is finally confirming that.
I think there's a number of other factors like the equal weighted S&P showing a broadening and equity flows beyond just the AI theme.
Those are the types of things you want to see.
You also want to see silver cooling off.
I think I said on Scott Melker's thing yesterday when I was shorting it again for like the
eighth straight day that it would come back to 81.
It didn't come back to 81 during the regular session, but it did come back in the overnight
session and then again today.
And so it's just, it's doing what it's doing.
It's making a topping pattern.
And once the money starts to come out of metals again,
that's when I think you'll really see
a more aggressive move in like Solana, Ethereum, right?
A bunch of other cryptos I've never even heard of yet.
And that'll be a really good time
to be a Bitcoin holder as well.
I'm pretty sure about that.
Yeah, 100%. That makes a lot of sense i think that when people get bored and i think i think that
we're early we're so early that it's like we need kind of maybe six to eight months of like
a little bit of an energy run like a little bit of those last like uranium's your palladium or
those other metals maybe a little bit of copper for like
another six to eight months, kind of that being dominant. And then from there, you'll kind of see
that more transitional phase. And then 2027, 2028, probably 2029 as well, you see crypto being very
dominant and you finally see, I don't want to say like altcoin season, but you know, you see crypto being very dominant and you finally see, I don't want to say like altcoin
season, but you know, you see people really back in the seat because this is a very apathetic time
for crypto. And I mean, I think that it's probably going to be more apathetic for a lot of this year.
Like I would give it apathetic for another like six, 12 months. You're seeing a little bit of
greed come back right now. Well, actually a lot of greed because it's kindetic for another like 6, 12 months. You're seeing a little bit of greed come back right now.
Well, actually a lot of greed because it's kind of like Bitcoin's down, you know, still
down significantly from 126K, ETH's still down significantly from its all-time high.
And I think fear and greed is at like 60 right now, which my guess is it almost feels like
a simulation when you look at it.
And I'm going to go into TA a little bit, 50 weekly moving average, that same place that you rejected from back in 2018, back in 2022. And I would say every
bear market shorter, you get diminished returns, both on the upside and the downside. So my,
I guess, fear or my slight bear case, and I'll admit I was wrong and I'll buy more Bitcoin,
I'll buy more ETH. If Bitcoin gets above 115K,
if my EMAs on my three-day look a lot better, that's what I've been waiting for because that's
historically a really good place to always buy Bitcoin on the EMAs on the three-day.
When that happens, I'll get back in. But I would say there's potential to see into maybe May. I
would say it's earlier every time ETH bottomed in June of 22. Maybe May of this year
could be 1,800 to 2,000 Ethereum.
Great rare opportunity to get in.
Yeah, look, I like a lot of the stuff
you said earlier about monetary policy.
I think where we disagree
is I think macro is going to lead crypto.
Like crypto is a light switch.
I've seen this a million times now so i will not be convinced otherwise when crypto wants to flip bullish
you can flip bullish in one day you can flip bullish in one week it can look dead and bitcoin
can wake up and literally rip your face off in like a couple weeks um and some of the derivatives
of bitcoin like the miners and stuff behave very very similarly, where they look dead, look dead, look dead, and they run five or 10x in like a few months. So I don't agree. I get that
it feels bad now. I actually think that's the kind of powder keg setup that you want. You want macro
to align with more liquidity. You want lower rates. You want the ISM PMI over 50. You want to
see like a broadening cycle with like liquidity coming out on a curve at the same time that the participants in that ecosystem don't believe it's possible.
The only time, the only way you're going to get really explosive outcomes is when you
get the combination of those things where the actual fundamentals that are going to
drive flows and liquidity are super positive.
But the internal attitude and mood is super negative because people have been losing money
for four years.
Right. attitude and mood is super negative because people have been losing money for four years right and i just see a lot of tired people a lot of angry people uh in the crypto ecosystem for
good reason right like not making money in four years will make anyone grumpy um the silver people
didn't make any money for two decades which is why they're so grumpy about anyone shorting them now
um because they didn't make any money for two decades they're finally making money and i'm
making money shorting on an interday basis, and it really pisses them off.
I get it.
Maybe I shouldn't poke them so much
because they've been in pain for a long time
and show some more empathy.
But look, markets are markets.
They're hard.
If you're not hard enough to deal with the way markets make you feel,
you shouldn't be in them.
And what I would say is a lot of people in crypto
are not serious people.
They're not serious investors.
And so this time frame right now wiped them out,
and it probably cleared the field for an actual run. They're not serious investors. And so this time frame right now wiped them out.
And it probably cleared the field for an actual run.
In the sector, a run that most of the people who were around two or three years ago, like Nakamoto List, are not going to participate in.
Because they have given up before the actual move even happens this time.
And that's fine.
Well, it's not that I'm not going to participate. I mean, if I see Bitcoin at new all-time highs, and I see Ethereum at
new all-time highs, and I see all
of the altcoins breaking out, then yeah, I'm going
to allocate.
I think it's 90% likely
that the conditions
you just described happen
in the next 12 months.
And because I think it's that likely,
I'm not going to wait until the chart
confirms it or people are going nuts and my neighbor wants to buy a bitcoin and my neighbor
wants to talk about ai data centers and stuff i buy it when nobody wants it right and i buy a lot
of it and then i just wait and i wait for you to capitulate to the upside so if you capitulate to
the upside we'll be on the same team again but i i don't want to wait for 126k to be long bitcoin i just want to be long bitcoin all the time um and i want to be long
the best companies all the time and i want to add to them if they go down and they go up too much
maybe i'll trim a little bit and rotate to something cheaper but basically what you guys
are saying is you're waiting for the market to tell you the fundamentals and i'm telling you
the fundamentals are going to support the market doing what you think you're waiting
for the fundamentals to tell you.
The fundamentals are already saying
that what you're saying you need the chart to tell you
is going to happen from my perspective.
So how much of your return do you want to give up
waiting for the market to tell you?
Well, I'm quite happy to give up a 25% return
waiting from like, you know, 96K to like, you know, 113k, whatever.
And a lot of people said the same thing at 25k Bitcoin.
They said, I'm happy to wait for a clean break of 40.
And guess what?
And I did.
I bought into...
Or they never passed the return of Bitcoin they would have gotten
if they just stayed in from 25.
Because they convinced them that they had to wait for some arbitrary resistance level to clear before they could get long an asset that's going to go up for fucking ever.
Well, you may think it'll go up forever, but, you know, a lot of people thought BitConnect was going to go up forever, and look at that now.
BitConnect's not BitConnect, and you know it's not BitConnect.
A lot of people thought Luna was going to go up forever, look at them now um a lot of a lot of people thought luna was gonna go up forever you know like i mean yeah i would i'm happy to give up 25 i don't care like bitcoin you know
bitcoin went up like 790 over the past uh you know four years so i'm happy to surrender like
let's call it you're not giving up 25 you've been giving
up kegers for decades i don't know how old you are maybe you're not 40 but you've been giving up
for 20 years your keger has been reduced because you've been waiting for a chart
to tell you about the first 25 well that's not true a little fact about me because i'm because
i'm because i'm because i'm based in the UK and I'm kind of from a normie person family, I kind of missed out on any kind of financial upside of tech between 2000 and 2020 because it just wasn't normal for people to have any kind of stocks.
Um, and people were sort of expected to like have a job and, you know, have money from the job and then crypto happened.
And that kind of red pill me on the idea that you are, instead of wanting to get a job, you should actively avoid getting a job and use it only as an absolute, like sort of last chance saloon to prevent you from being homeless.
And you should have as much of your income as possible come from investments because that can scale.
Whereas jobs can't really scale um so i
wish i'd kind of worked that out earlier i could probably have already retired myself just by dca
into google right which is just the easiest trade ever and nobody this is where i just like i love
that story and by the way i think it's great i think people should be aware of where they came
from and what advantages and disadvantages but but I think the important point that you're not going to make, but I'm going to make it for you to help fill in color,
is you wouldn't have been able to hold Google for more than six months because you haven't
been able to hold anything for very long. Because as soon as the chart turns over and it turns
negative, you try to get out before you take a drawdown. Google has drawn down 50 or 70%
multiple times that I've been watching it since it went
public in 2004 i remember 2008 vividly it got clobbered along with apple and amazon everything
else nothing changed with anything about the long-term trajectory of those businesses during
that time the only thing that changed was people's perception and liquidity conditions
and the same thing is happening over and over again you don't see it that way but i think you're
you know ethereum better than i do you know ethereum better than 99.9 percent of the people in
the world and if it goes to 100 000 you're not going to own any of it you may own some of it
for some of the ride but you would have made more money just buying it at 300 and holding it
yeah but but like i'm not gonna let ethereum break out and not hold any of it i mean it's just
the other difference there is that Google, you know,
has users, right?
Ethereum doesn't like, it's not quite the same thing.
I don't Google.
I, I, I first, I first used Google in the, in the last millennium.
Okay.
That's how early I was to being a Google user.
Right.
I was using it in 1998 or 1999 or something.
It was like obviously the best search engine, right?
But I didn't buy any, right?
I didn't buy any of the stock when it IPO'd.
I didn't even know that you had to put log on stock charts.
Like I didn't look at charts.
I didn't think there was any like alpha from looking at charts or noticing
trends.
Like I'd fall into the,
you know,
the trap of like,
you know,
you should leave it all to the professionals and just work a job and
you'll gradually accumulate money in your pension.
But it's kind of like funny the way that's worked out for the UK is a lot of
UK pensions are what's called defined.
they're called defined benefit pensions.
So because the benefit is defined not the
contribution the managers of those funds put it all into fucking bonds so these pensions
have like a one percent kaga on on uk pensions so like people in the uk are completely fucked on
this like i'm actually ahead of the curve for uk people nobody has investments people like go to a
job pay rent and have some beers.
So, yeah.
Well, as long as those beers are Guinnesses, I'm okay with that. I hear Guinness is going
gangbusters in the UK right now, and I'm long Diageo. It's one of my largest positions. I
think I got 12 million or so in it right now. It's got a 3%, 4% yield. They got Don Julio,
Smirnoff, Johnny Walker, Captain Morgan.
Guinness is one of the best brands in the world. I like stuff like that, and I
think more English people should be investing in
companies that are domiciled in England, candidly.
So they should be buying Diageo. They got the guy from that supermarket
guy, Chainsaw, Drastic Dave or whatever.
He came in and saved one of your biggest supermarket companies.
He got knighted.
He's now the CEO of Diageo because the last CEO got fired after the previous CEO died.
So look, I hear everything you're saying, i still don't agree um that you would have held
google i don't think it matters whether google is materially different than ethereum or bitcoin
or any other company i think mindset and approach is is more important than the asset and your
mindset and approach historically has been to use charts to trade um and you're very particular
about avoiding drawdowns which which is fine. And nobody likes
drawdowns. But in order to make significant long-term returns, drawdowns are part of the
business. And you minimize them with portfolio construction and sizing correctly and doing maybe
a little trimming and trading and hedging. But you don't sell whole positions because of a chart.
And if you do, you're going to have a job, right? If you don't want to have a job, you got to actually swing bigger and hold and wait until those positions
actually materialize. Like that's what investing is, right? It's you're betting on a future that
doesn't exist yet before it happens. And the more right you are about something that the rest of the
world doesn't understand, the bigger the reward. The more you get behind consensus things, the more your returns
look average, right? So like consensus right now is own the S&P, right? And get whatever you get,
10%, 12%. I mean, we've had more than that the last few years. With mean reversion, it's likely
to be lower over the next five years. And that's fine, right? Like it's better than a bond-like
return. In real estate in the US on an unlevered basis right now, residential, you're probably going to get 3% or 4%.
And if you use leverage correctly and you time it, it may be better, right?
But you're not going to make 20% or 30% or 40% CAGRs just trading charts, right?
Like somebody might make a good return in some short period.
But net of taxes and transaction fees and the cost of being wrong,
like when you're out of a stock or out of crypto, when it actually goes into a parabolic style price discovery, which tends to happen every few years in some of these assets, missing out on that is worth way more and costs you way more than any benefits you get from defending against the downside.
And that's just like the math, especially when you consider the compound math and you consider taxes and fees and things like that there's just nobody who's perfect
well that well that's that's not actually true for crypto right excluding bitcoin you know most
people who've who've like applied a sort of investor mindset to crypto have just gotten
wrecked on coins because when you invest in altcoins like they're kind of scammy they tend to like pump early and then crap forever like i know this guy
who who was big into polka dot i think he made like a 5x or something um and you know he was
like really interested in selling to buy an apartment or something at the top when polka
dot was like 40 and then he decided to like you know hold the more and like yeah it's
just completely wrecked so i i think like basically for the investor mindset you know you want to be
in tradfire you want to be buying real companies cryptos are mostly ponzi schemes uh with like a
wrapper and you don't want to be an investor like a long-term investor schemes i mean i basically
only own bitcoin and then the sprinkling of ethereum because
as a as an investor it's the only asset that like if my mom says hey i want some exposure to crypto
it's the only thing i could put her into where i don't have to check in with her every year
everything else i got to check in and i got to look at the price and i got to consider my mom's
retirement bitcoin i could put in there as a 10% or 20% allocation paired with very stable tobacco companies and consumer staples and energy MLPs and things like that to get a blended 4%, 5%, 6% yield on one side of the barbell and then Bitcoin on the other.
Bitcoin does all the heavy lifting in terms of capital appreciation slash purchasing power increases.
And the dividend yielders provide all the ballast and all the income so that she can pay all of her bills while she's just letting Bitcoin go up. And
that's what it's done. She bought Bitcoin at like 15K. And she's just held it and never touched it.
And her dividend stocks are paying all of her bills along with social security. Right. And so
like that approach works fine for Bitcoin. But to your point, if you actually want to make a lot of money in markets long term, you really can't buy any of those other things.
And I think Ethereum is the closest thing in terms of sustainability and utility.
And I might be wrong, but it's worth a flyer if for periods of time it significantly outperforms Bitcoin.
Mike, one thing to add on Ethereum, because this has been a change for me and this's been a good conversation. Nakamoto, one thing I will say is I have this, you know, this core belief that to be a trader, you have to be the top 1% to actually make money over time.
percent of people will lose and i don't want to do that because i'm better at other things
so that's the reason why i would say most people that think that they can be traders and can beat
the market consistently over and over without losing their shirt they're just wrong and it's
just the data is the data number two uh the the big drawdowns are actually incredible opportunities
and so it's really weird that people are trying to avoid them they're actually incredible
opportunities if you have a thesis underlying them number three they're not on drawdown if you're holding no actually that's completely incorrect so
go ahead for the draw yeah but and then you can again if you actually look at the data the data
shows that um that most of the major moves that occur happen in a very short period and so actually
predicting when a drawdown is going to end
and there's going to be a fast, rapid rise
is actually not really possible.
Again, you have to be a world-class trader
to be able to know those 10 days
that led to all of the movement.
And most people miss those.
And they keep talking about it for,
oh, I missed that, oh, blah, blah.
All those people are sitting on the sidelines
when actually there's a ton of people.
Yeah, but I don't miss them.
I'm pretty good at trading breakouts.
I caught the breakout at 30k.
Said every trader ever, but yet here we are.
So I was going to say, regardless, my point is, you know, I just want this not even really talking to you.
It's just talking to people that think they can do this.
And it's kind of hilarious.
The one thing I will say is the Ethereum flyer, there is actually a thesis behind
it that is interesting. And I've been a little bit careful about it because I've been pretty
much a Bitcoin maxi on the crypto side. But I did enter, I think it's a very good opportunity
with Ethereum, largely because I started doing a little bit of research on where most of the Ethereum activity is actually occurring.
And it's been interesting, a significant portion of the Ethereum activity is actually occurring
through these prediction markets.
And I'm very, very bullish on prediction markets, even though I think they're awful for society.
And prediction markets, specifically Polymarket, has been built on uh polygon and so it's been quite
interesting to see that play so would you would you buy polygon rather than eth no i would not
buy polygon rather than eth because i believe that the infrastructure picks and shovels a better place
um than the actual wait so you're so you're bullish on Polymarket, which doesn't run on Ethereum.
It runs on Polygon.
Which is built on Ethereum, right?
Polygon isn't built on Ethereum.
It's its own blockchain.
It's an L2.
Dude, come on.
It's not an L2.
Polygon is not an Ethereum L2.
It's literally an Ethereum L2 scaling solution, bro.
Like, what are you talking about?
It's not.
It is not.
Polygon is not an L2.
You cannot... If the Polygon about data sets... command it's it is not polygon is not an l2 you cannot you can if the polygon validator set that's what gemini says like jesus christ i trust google and by the way i agree with
if you want to withdraw your funds from polygon and the polygon validator set won't let you you
can't permissionlessly do that so it's not an l L2. It's been marketed as an L2, but it isn't.
The long and short of it is when you look at Ethereum activity across the chain,
it seems as though these prediction markets are driving a significant portion of it.
I think that a significant portion of the activity that was going to go into these shit coins,
which by the way, if you're dumb enough to be an investor in shit coins,
that sounds like an IQ
problem. And that's okay. Not everybody gets to have an high IQ, but you don't need to act on it.
So sorry for your buddy, but that's just retarded. And so what I was going to say is that when you
look at Ethereum and you look at these infrastructure picks and shuffle plays,
the thing that was super interesting about it is that we're actually seeing kalshi now
open up toward that i think there's going to be a lot of movement around other prediction markets
launching they're going to make it easier to launch prediction markets prediction markets have a lot of
unfortunate societal impact but really really good business impact and so you know it just depends on
your what but what do what do prediction markets have to do with Ethereum?
Because a lot of them are built on things that are built on Ethereum
because the blockchain activity actually is super useful
for being able to track activity at scale using smart contracts.
And so that has been the key approach.
Which prediction markets are built on Ethereum?
Again, you are, for some reason,
disagreeing with the fact that Polygon
is built on Ethereum.
I'm not sure why.
Polygon is not built on Ethereum.
It's its own blockchain.
I think it's technically a sidechain, but it is designed
to scale Ethereum.
It's a sidechain. Okay.
It's quote-unquote designed to scale
Ethereum. That's just meaningless, right?
Polygon is a blockchain.
Ethereum is a blockchain.
They're separate.
When you pay fees on Polygon, that doesn't go to ETH.
If you want to withdraw your money from Polygon... I'm happy to send you some information, which might be actually helpful.
When you actually look at Ethereum on-chain activity right now,
a significant portion of it is being driven by these prediction markets.
And it's been quite interesting.
Which one?
So again, I just mentioned Polymarket,
specifically Polymarket.
So I'm happy.
Okay, so what does Polymarket have to do with ETH?
Can you explain to me,
if I want to go on Polymarket right now,
how do I touch ETH? What would be really good and helpful
is if you actually went to Polymarket's own website,
and when it's asked
What are you built on? It says we're built on polygon Which is a layer if you want eat you can literally go to their website and they actually say those words. So it's
I'm not gonna have this conversation
They say those words. It's a it's a marketing word. It doesn't mean
What if I go and I want to if I want to Polygon and I want to place a bet,
in what way do I touch Ethereum?
This is like, again, the main premise of this
is to the thesis around the platform aspect of Ethereum
is based on the fact that they are becoming
the picks and shovels for some of these production markets.
The picks and shovels by definition means...
Can you explain what the pick is?
What's the pick there?
Again, Polygon right now is powering...
Polygon is not Ethereum.
It's a different thing.
You know, it's funny.
How are you supposed to have a conversation with people that are straight up just arguing
on stupid conversations?
If you think Ethereum is powering polygon can you
explain to me technically how that works i don't need to this is an investment thesis okay so again
okay so you're gonna look at the data so this is like the funny part which is like um
i invest for a living so i invest across multiple different areas where i find significant interest
this is an interest area where i put a flyer in based on my understanding of the situation. It's clear that
it's going to be powering significant portions of the market. Why? What do you mean by power?
So again, okay. All right. This is like a hilarious circular conversation, which by the way,
really tells you why so many people miss out on such big moves is because they like, what's the word?
They go full retard on these things.
And it's like, there's no reason to do that.
So is your thesis basically that Polygon has a marketing statement about being associated with Ethereum on its website?
And because of that, if there's more activity on poly
market that will drive the price of east i mean that's a thesis it's not crazy so it's a very
simple concept so what what the actual poly market itself was built on ethereum but it actually uses
polygon polygon for the fast low-cost transactions but yet the infrastructure was built on ethereum
which actually matters quite a lot what do you mean by what transactions. But yet the infrastructure was built on Ethereum, which actually matters quite a lot.
What do you mean by the infrastructure?
So the execution layer is currently running on Matic or Polygon,
the layer two network.
But the transaction off the main Ethereum chain are being used.
The reason why they're using Polygon is because they're trying to stay
off the main Ethereum chain so that they can get speed and savings
and all these other things.
But really, Polymarket already has announced
on their own website
that they're going to be migrating
to a separate Ethereum layer L2 network.
This is like all public information.
You can go to their website.
So hold on, hold on.
Let me finish now, right?
Like you asked for an answer.
Again, I am not an expert in this space.
So, but this is like a very basic concept, which is currently they built it on Ethereum.
They were using Polygon to get it off the ground.
And they're now migrating to an L2 on Ethereum based on their own website and their own public information.
Okay.
Okay.
So let's suppose Polymarket abandons Polygon, which is not an L2.
It's a sidechain, but, you know, it's marketed as L2.
And they become a real L2, settling to Ethereum, right?
So they have, like, you know, you have that protection, right?
How will that drive the ETH price?
Because there are a lot of L2s already.
There's base, there's, you know, like, arbitrary, and there's all these L2s.
How do you think these L2s are going to drive value on eth because driving transactions i mean again this is
a very simple concept but that's actually what the value of ethereum is the more people that
build on ethereum the more valuable ethereum becomes because again that's their entire network
okay this sounds a little bit religious though right right? I don't believe in Ethereum. I'm saying this is a flyer on the basic premise and thesis that I believe there's going to be a hundred polymarkets.
I think there are going to be a thousand polymarkets.
Okay, so suppose there's a lot of prediction markets that set up their own L2s and they settle to Ethereum.
to ethereum so they're using ethereum block space but the problem is and blob space right so the
So they're using Ethereum Blob Space.
But the problem is, and Blob Space, right?
problem is ethereum blob space is getting extremely cheap and ethereum is actually failing to capture
any of the value from its l2s so isn't that kind of bearish for your thesis no it's not because
ultimately the activity look again the point that i'm making is that ultimately increased activity
on ethereum is going to improve the, uh, improve
the price of Ethereum.
This is like just a very big, why, why, why, how is that going to happen?
How is that going to happen?
If, if, if when you have activity on these LPs, it doesn't actually pay any money for
Ethereum or it pays a very small amount.
How is that actually going to drive the value of ETH up?
I mean, I feel like you're like literally,
it's like a weird cyclical argument right now.
So first you said-
I'm asking a very basic question.
No, no, no.
I'm asking a very, very basic question.
I'm actually like,
you've already been wrong about like five different things.
I'm not even sure if the rest of this conversation
is worth my time.
I'm like having this conversation.
Okay.
Other people are not free.
You're free to log off.
You're free to log off. Wouldn't they raise prices though? Wouldn't ETH raise prices? Like it's like so retarded. this conversation okay okay well yes but right now the supply vastly outstrips the demand and ethereum
has plans to scale a whole lot more so there's even more supply, right? Fees are going down and down and down,
lower and lower and lower because there's a glut, there's an oversupply of block space.
So like these, these LQs are not actually driving value to Ethereum at the moment. So
in order to have a thesis that they are going to, presumably you could say, well, maybe like
something that I don't understand will happen
i'll get lucky or maybe you have some reason as to how that's going to happen but like the l2 thesis
is not a new thesis it's like a quite old thesis but there's actual use cases right now that actually
scaled significantly i think the prediction market business is going to scale dramatically. It is going to scale at a level that most people are not paying attention to.
It's happening right now in a very niche space,
but we're actually going to see everybody using prediction markets for a variety of things.
In fact, we currently know that prediction markets are having a significant impact on decision making.
Like there are people that are using prediction markets to build oracles to understand what is going to happen on geopolit making. There are people that are using prediction markets to build oracles to understand
what is going to happen on geopolitics.
I mean, there's so much that's happening
right now in the space that I think we're super
early. And my point is
that all these shit coins are going to disappear
and we're going to replace
a lot of that with prediction markets.
It is very obvious that that's already happening.
It's sucking the air out of the room.
Yeah, I mean, I'm not disagreeing with that. I'm actually bullish on prediction markets as well. What I'm bearish on very obvious that that's already happening it's sucking the air out of the room yeah i mean i'm
not i'm not disagreeing with that i'm actually bullish on prediction markets as well what i'm
bearish on is this connection you're making between activity on prediction markets which
might move to l2s and the price of eth the asset right because there's this disconnect where
there's an oversupply of ethereum block space and none of the l2s are actually driving any value to
Ethereum block space. And none of the L2s are actually driving any value to ETH. So how's that
going to get fixed? Again, increased volume and increased demand of these L2s. As we see this,
you're kind of like, it's interesting because it helps me understand a little bit more about you
as an investor. But we're sort of like super early, like crazy early in prediction markets.
So you're seeing Uber just launch the black cab and you're like,
how is this going to replace the taxi world?
And you're, I'm like sitting here, I'm saying, dude, it doesn't matter.
Anybody will be a driver.
Anybody will be.
I'm not, I'm not, I'm not, I'm not, I'm not, I'm not.
No, no, but I think,
I think you're not understanding the scale and the migration.
So the fact that again,
poly market has been public about the fact that they're not only going to move off agon and build their own L2, but they're going to be building it on Ethereum is quite bullish for Ethereum.
If you can't even admit that, then it's like, okay, well, I'm just talking to somebody who has like a-
But why is that going to be bullish for Ethereum?
Because it's going to increase transaction activity on Ethereum.
Oh my God, circular activity.
When you actually look at the numbers l
use don't drive as somebody who's hosted many of these this is not really adding that much value
at this point because we're sort of having the same argument over and over i'd recommend looking
i'm trying to get you know i just told you demand is going to go up okay but is it going to go up
enough to actually make a difference?
Again, that's the question.
Blob space is also going to go up, right?
Like the amount of blob space and block space on Ethereum is going to increase a lot.
And my point is that prediction markets are going to scale so fast, so vastly, that any increase will be outstripped by 10x by the activity on prediction markets.
Right now, your Nana is not on prediction markets.
Your grandpa is not on prediction markets.
We are so early on the prediction market world that I think it's going to be such,
it's going to be a moral quandary for society.
Like people will be, will have all the time in there.
Again, it depends on your AI thesis.
I think people, a lot of people will just be sitting on prediction markets all day. That's all they're going to be doing all the time in there. Again, it depends on your AI thesis. I think a lot of people will just be sitting on prediction markets all day.
That's all they're going to be doing all the time.
And so if that's where we end up, I think there is a significant increase in demand
no matter what Vitalik does.
And so that's the point that I'm trying to make.
So I think that's the key on the thesis on the investment.
My point is it is such a small portion of my investment, but I think it's worth a small portion because of this
underlying thesis on the fact that people are building on Ethereum. Did you guys see that Mr.
Beast took an investment from Bitmine Immersion too? $200 million. It just seems like there's,
look, you could already make the same argument. You could be like, oh, well, how does Mr. Beast have to do with the value of Ethereum?
And it's like, well, what's bigger than the largest content creator in all of human history?
Exactly.
We're seeing a lot of this.
It's all converging.
And I think the dumbest thing you can do here is act like you're smarter than the market is moving there and answering exactly how a VC backed token or a VC backed company is
going to extract profits five years from now or 10 years from now as a loser's game, unless you're,
I have a very, very simple, I have a very simple alternate thesis, right? The reason that the
poly market probably wants its own L2 is because if they launch that, if they stay on polygon, right, then the polygon token might capture the value from
the hype they're creating.
If they create their own L2, guess what they can also create?
They can create a polymarket token, not a polygon token, a polymarket token.
And they can say, Hey guys, we've got this really successful prediction market
that everyone's using.
And we just launched a token and then they get everyone to buy their token and they
dump the shit out of it and they extract a massive amount of value and they will
not drive very much value into Ethereum in the process of doing that.
Yeah.
People will use decks as a little bit and they'll use exchanges and stuff like
that, but you know, this doesn't really consume very much block space because
unfortunately, the tall X like scaling work has kind of worked too well, right? So when L2s commit their states to ETH into the blobs,
it just doesn't take up much of the space. Blob space is basically free, right? So I think this
is actually bullish for crypto, just not for Ethereum. It's bullish for the token that Poly
Market is probably going to launch and dump.
And the best way to play on that thesis is to fish for the airdrop by going and using Polymarket.
If you're poor like me, that's what you should be doing.
If you're rich and you buy Ethereum because you think Polymarket is going to drive value to the ETH token,
I think that's probably not going to play out.
Maybe we're rich because we take those types of trades all day long.
I mean, I've been doing this for years.
okay.
But I mean, I, I think like there are other, there are other theses for why
the ETH token could do well, right?
This does not seem like a good thesis to me.
The other thesis that seems good is the one where like in maybe five issues time,
AI basically takes over the whole economy and the traditional banking system just isn't fast enough and we need some kind of
we covered that we covered my view on decentralization we covered all the stuff nakamoto and then
and then denish comes in here and gives a totally different thesis which i hadn't even i haven't
been spending time on that thesis and i'm still with Ethereum, because I'm seeing a dozen other things converging that would make it a good long.
That has nothing to do with what he said.
I think the prediction market thesis for ETH is, like, I don't particularly buy it.
I mean, he didn't convince me.
I mean, you may have got that, but it is worse.
Well, I was convinced by your bullish arguments on Ethereum an hour ago to add more to my position.
Fair enough. I'm already already bullish and i added more after you told me you were bearish on it after talking to you
for 20 minutes you gave me a better argument than i gave for why to be long and i added 20 000
shares of the i shares ethereum trust i'm up to 180 130 000 so i'm up from from the end of the year
already and i'm just going to keep adding yeah so yeah so so here's the thing like the the things
that the things in that that kind of make you bullish about ethereum might make you even more
bullish about something else you might want to buy an altcoin um you know people have considered
actually buying the the polygon token because of prediction markets.
And like, you know, if Polygon abandons, if Polymarket abandons Polygon, then that's probably going to fuck that trade over. So I guess like one thing you could say about Ethereum is basically, it's kind of like the IBM of the crypto world.
Nobody ever got fired for buying IBM, right?
Um, you know, it's probably not going to be a complete disaster probably.
You know, it's probably not going to be a complete disaster, probably.
Um, and if, if the, if the market as a whole goes up, you know, it'll probably lift Ethereum.
It's kind of like, it's kind of like, you know, if you, if everyone thinks that IBM
is a safe stock and everyone gets 50% more money, like everyone on average is going to
increase their IBM position by 50% in dollars.
And so IBM will go up.
Right.
And I think it's there is kind of like in this position, like that's my honest,
dead honest position on Ethereum.
And that's why I haven't bought any, because like the upside of that is not great.
Right.
The upside of that is like, you will keep up roughly with the market as a whole.
That's nice, but it's not great.
And I think if you're kind of like wealthy and you just want to allocate a lot of
money, the other thing is like, if you're wealthy, like Mike is rather than a
fucking poor fag, like me, you have to consider liquidity as well.
Right?
Like Ethereum is very liquid, right?
Uh, whereas, you know, minus shit coins might not be so liquid.
So, you know, there is that consideration.
Um, but yeah, I mean, I, I mean, it's not crazy.
It's not great, but it's okay.
Man, let's hear from BTC AI guy,
aka BTC mining stock guy,
as he was formerly called.
What's up, man?
Hey, I appreciate the opportunity to share my survivorship bias. So I've been in Bitcoin for
12 years. I'm an OG. I've been in crypto for a long time, and crypto brought me into the stock
market. And one of the things that makes me successful, I like to think, is my self-awareness.
And, you know, I'm just hearing a bunch of bottom signals, right?
As an investor, as a trader, I do this full time, right?
So when I hear mid-curve takes for an hour, right, and i look at these prices of altcoin shit coins
ethereum you know crypto has been in a depression for years right and uh you know that is not true
bitcoin is up like please don't interrupt interrupt me okay when money is talking you do not interrupt
When money is talking, you do not interrupt.
Okay.
So your case is a technology case.
I'm an investor, right?
I'm allocating capital, right?
This is money moving, right?
We're in a new era, if you haven't noticed.
In crypto, the investor class is here, right? The investor class is allocating capital in the trillions, right?
You've seen, I've seen Bitcoin, when I bought Bitcoin, it was under $100.
Today, you know, it's under $100K, right?
The conversations that I'm having today are completely different than 510 years ago right you know the Bitcoiners
today are talking about cash flow and investments in AI right I'm not talking
about Bitcoin miners transition AI it's the participants in crypto today right
well at least on the Bitcoin side, have capital, right?
They've made good decisions throughout their entire years of being an investor or doing something great in business, right?
So a lot of these shit corners that come on these spaces, they can't appreciate that.
And they say, oh, the technology is not there to scale.
It's not about technology. This is about money, right? Crypto is fundamentally anti-fiat,
right? The highest upside for Bitcoin and Ethereum is not a store of value. It's money.
Everything needs to be denominated in Bitcoin or Ethereum. That is the $100 trillion opportunity,
That is the $100 trillion opportunity, right?
It is not about a 2x here, right?
And people like myself who are putting money at work, we're not thinking about a 2x.
We're thinking about 100x, right?
And a percent or two doesn't sound sexy for someone that has $1,000.
or two doesn't sound sexy for someone that has $1,000, but if you have $10 million, $20 million,
$50 million, a small percentage can go a long way. And that's how institutional capital thinks.
So this is not a technology argument. Sure, there's a shitcoin with $50 million market cap
that is better than Bitcoin. It's better than ethereum it could scale it's decentralized it can it can get you a girlfriend it sounds too good to be true but
that's not how money thinks right uh and and my friend i think this is the time to be long
right this is not the time to be afraid this is i'm not finished i think if you're thinking about
a thousand dollars you need a good job you you don't about $1,000, you need to get a job.
You don't need to be on Spaces.
You don't need to listen to Mike Alfred.
You need to get a job,
save some money,
and then allocate to Bitcoin.
Maybe take a percentage
of that,
or 5%.
Put that in Ethereum.
It might go somewhere in 10 years.
But when you have capital i mean that that sounds like honestly awful advice like get a job and allocate to bitcoin like
you know okay cool like you you didn't get to where you are today by getting a job and
having a job i was uh one of the highest paid people outside of my college graduating class.
I was in the top 1% income earners at a college.
Okay, but suppose somebody's in the 50th percentile.
They're exactly in the middle. They've got taxes. They've got expenses.
They've got a limited amount of capital.
And you're telling them, like, work harder at your job and allocate to Bitcoin.
I don't have a Bitcoin problem. I have an income problem.
Listen, I don't think we're on the same page here.
I think we're in a financial conversation,
not a technology conversation.
There's hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars
allocated to Ethereum today because that capital believes it's a multi-trillion dollar idea.
And there's applications such as prediction markets.
It's not the main thesis, not my main thesis on Ethereum.
I'm not an Ethereum maxi.
I would allocate a percent to that idea.
And I'm happy to trim that position if it gets too large.
But, you know, my end game is more Bitcoin. Right. And I invest in great companies, great ideas, great people, great businesses to ultimately stack and multiply more Bitcoin.
I like to take risk to stack more Bitcoin. I think that is the game of capitalism.
stack more bitcoin i think that is the game of capitalism if you're a bitcoin capitalist
uh you know you're doing a great job uh but i i think this is not a technology
argument right and i've been in the space for 30 minutes laughing my ass off
because uh you know you're arguing against uh layer twos and the definitions don't really
matter this is a game of making money right and uh yeah but when
you say making money right you've got to consider like how much money are you going to make what are
you going to risk and if your advice is basically go get a job you should get a job not everyone i
think i think my followers are very wealthy right my followers don't need a job i think well you
know if you're thinking about a thousand dollars you should not be uh debating
on which shit coin to buy i think you should you uh you know dot fiat guy i think you should
uh get a job in stack sats right for for the millionaires i mean you know no no offense but
i think that is objectively terrible advice right Like telling somebody who has thousand dollars to invest or even 10,000 to like, you know, get a job and stack sats when Bitcoin is already up 800%.
That's terrible.
But I mean, you know, it's, you're not in that position, right?
You have more money.
You know, you're, you're prepared to like stack some money if you make a CAGR of like 10%.
So it keeps up with inflation.
That's cool.
But I mean, it is what it is, right?
Not everyone's in the same position.
Right, right, right.
I appreciate you giving me the opportunity to share my survivorship bias.
I've made money.
I was in your position not too long ago.
I mean, I'm only 32.
When I was 17, 18 years old, I was in a similar...
How old are you?
Oh, so you're older than me. Oh, you should definitely take my advice.
You're giving horrible advice, bro. Like, I'm sorry. You're telling people who have a small
portfolio to just DCA Bitcoin, right? Not only telling them to DCA Bitcoin, you're telling them
to DCA bitcoin after it's
gone through an 800 bull market right yeah so that's that's the thing with capital capital
right like uh it doesn't matter if it's if it's uh if it's a great idea if it's a digital monopoly
if it's going to be the perfect money it doesn't matter if it's 100K or 100 million.
It is the best thing to allocate to, and you should have an allocation. That's how capital thinks. Small capital, small money thinks, this already ran. I should take 100 times more risk
and gamble it away. The smart investors, they take an allocation and say i need this because
this is oxygen okay gary what's going on oxygen is free actually but anyway if someone else wants
to go on brother i was gonna say if you if you can if you can just invest $1,000 a month, regardless of what it is,
figure poison, Bitcoin, S&P 500, NASDAQ, something that trends up with time, let's say,
you're in the top 5% at least.
You could even be, I think it's $2,000 a month puts you in the top 1% of actual investors.
So even $1,000 a month.
And I mean, I think the argument where
a person, it's not really realistic to say like, okay, a person has barely any money.
They only have a thousand dollars to invest. Like that person needs to get an income,
whether start a business to do something, you know what I mean? Even if it's just driving Uber
to make an extra thousand dollars a month to try to invest. I think those are kind of good ideas,
but I think a thousand bucks if you
can put that away you're already investing so much more than 95 of people and i think the question
is what do you put it into right do you want it do you really want to like put your thousand dollars
your ten thousand dollars your fifteen thousand dollars into you know into bitcoin at this point
i would say you know obviously like let's be real
obviously i would say 23 you shouldn't put all of your money into one thing unless you 100 percent
have it you know you you have to be really like michael saylor levels of confidence that's usually
the only way you win when you do stuff like that but i would say say, I don't know, for me personally, 20%, 30% right now, probably
more if Bitcoin goes down lower, you know, I wouldn't just put into fiat, you know, I would
be diversified in certain senses. And I think that 30%, that's more risky, you know, Bitcoin,
maybe some Ethereum. Right now, I would definitely be putting money into energy stocks,
energy ETFs, definitely some uranium like I have recently. So, you know, I would definitely be putting money into energy stocks, energy ETFs, definitely some uranium like I have recently.
So, you know, I would watch the market that way.
And I'm planning on taking profits on some of that, hopefully in 6 to 12 months, converting that more over into, you know, Bitcoin, some Ethereum as well, and running that up to, you know, hopefully we can get Bitcoin at 60K, 50K, running that up to 200K,
you know, hopefully by the end of the decade, a couple of years, that's a 4X. Now, if you're
somebody who's only putting away, let's say 12K a year, you know, you could get up to 100 grand
or more by the end of the decade. And if you have 100 grand, I mean, that still puts you
way ahead of most people. 100 grand, you know, at the end of the decade is not going to be that great
right house price is going to be up what another like you could buy and there's a lot of places
in the world you could buy a nice condo for 100 grand then your living expenses can only be 500
to a thousand if you could work remotely and make a thousand a month yeah but you have to like you
have to move to a third world shithole for that it's oh come on dude i'm in medellin right now
it's not a third world shithole that's offensive come on bro come on if you're if you're
like look you know if somebody's got a relatively modest amount to invest right and the reason i'm
saying this is a because i have a relatively modest amount to invest like i could invest
like say about 50k total right now i'm holding most of it back um but like a lot of people will
be in that position but it's a more it's also like a more interesting question.
If somebody has already got like, you know, 15 billion gazillion dollars, cause they were like, you know, in at the boss one iron that's like, yeah, your investing problem is actually not very interesting.
Cause you can just diversify and like, you're mostly optimizing for safety at that point.
Like you're not optimizing for returns.
Right.
Like, so, you know, I i mean if you have say you know between
like 1 and 50k to invest um what should you do with it right like should you really just put it
into bitcoin a bit into eth like you know is that really the best we can do here at ct let me just
i'm just curious if you guys have looked into this for ultra wealthy people i believe it's a net worth
around 15 million or more if you had to guess what average makeup their net worth is made up of what would you guys think
yeah gary do you do you know it what it is statistically what's your question so people
ultra high net worth people with 15 million or more what's their allocation i think the number 30 million uh i don't know i don't
know i suspect their allocation is uh you know s&p some money in cash i mean um
real estate for sure the passive money right real estate but you know 30 million all that money's at work okay someone's still working um so
i gotta say okay uh the reason i popped up on the stage i actually think the advice um bitcoin
uh i don't know who was giving the advice but i think that's excellent advice you have an income problem i'd spend a thousand dollars on books instead of investing right now quite frankly and i would go
get a job i'd mine fiat and plow it into bitcoin i i don't know a human being that can't make
ten thousand dollars i see so many opportunities. I have $10,000 a year or $10,000?
Over a weekend.
If you told me
I had a week or I
was going to die to make $10,000,
I am sure you could.
Look, you're articulate, dude.
You could hustle the fuck out of things.
How would you
make $10,000 over a weekend
or over a week?
Well, I'll pay somebody about three different projects,
10 grand, just to come here on the weekend
and fix some shit at my house.
I'm paying my daughter $10,000 just to fix my art room.
Bro, if the offer is open, I will fucking fly over from England.
Get out of here, dude.
Fucking get on a fucking plane, because I can't come to you. But 10K, I will do it. I will do it for 10 England. Get out of here, dude. Get on a fucking plane because I can't come to you.
For 10K, I will do it.
I will do it for 10K.
I am that desperate.
Yeah, well, that's what people should be doing.
They should be hustling and looking for funds to invest.
And I wouldn't invest.
Like, these guys invest in $1,000.
I would not invest $1,000 in anything.
It is wrong, okay?
You can afford to lose $1,000.
You need to invest like it's going to fucking hurt if you're wrong. You guys are doing this all wrong. Okay. You can afford to lose a thousand dollars. You need to invest like it's going to fucking hurt.
If you're wrong,
you guys are doing this all wrong.
I don't make $50 fucking bets.
Cause I don't give a fuck if I lose them.
If you've ever played poker with me,
okay,
you can make a shitload of money off me.
Cause for me,
it's a fucking game.
It's just entertainment,
but it's not investing.
I take it very,
very differently.
So, like, I would absolutely get a job, get on a fucking plane, get the 10 grand, and you'll work your ass off, and you'll have some cash, too.
And everyone can do that.
I could do it if I wanted to.
Okay? Okay, and by the way, I'm adding Bitcoin right now. And I am at no greater advantage than you or Mike Alford or Billy Bob or my sister.
I'm out of cash, dude.
I have to go figure out how do I get enough cash up?
How do I get a deal done? Do something productive and creative to generate fiat to buy Bitcoin.
Fuck Ethereum, dude.
I don't need to make this bet.
The gentleman said the most important thing I have heard in so long about Bitcoin.
We're here to tear the whole fucking system down, dude.
That's the upside trade here.
And there is no other thing that offers the ability to systematically be a Trojan horse across the entire global financial complex.
No matter how bastardized it's going to be, with or without regulation, clarity bill, no clarity bill, whatever, jurisdictional issues.
I still think Bitcoin offers you this unbelievable upside, asymmetric fucking trade that you're never going to see again due to its finite, both its real finite and its adoption at this phase.
It's cheaper today at $100,000 than it was at $10,000.
Risk adjusted, it is much cheaper.
And that's the way rich people look at shit dude like you guys
deserve to make 90 grand on your 10 000 bitcoin it's awesome you were so early you were fucking
blinded by by you know a religious kind of uh theory it's cool it's awesome but you don't take
it to the next stage that does not take it to the next stage. That does not take it to the next stage.
Next stage is right here, man.
So I would most certainly get a job, mine fiat.
If you're making 200 grand a year,
you should go figure out how to make 200 more.
Yeah, I mean, you've got to kind of adjust your expectations for England, right?
No, no, no, no, no, no.
Fuck your, you could have fucking left, bro. Don't give me that shit okay you saw this coming you like being a prisoner there
and a victim fucking get up get the fuck out of that country they're gonna fucking imprison you
dude they won't even let me go there so fuck get out safe, get your family safe, and go produce something, man.
It's the right solution, guys.
This is why I love coming to these spaces, okay?
This is productive.
Not how much money I've made.
I'm out of money, okay?
Now I have to decide, oh, wow, am I going to go get another job, go create another business, do some art?
What's more important to me at this stage?
And how do I also add 500 fucking Bitcoin? job, go create another business, do some art. What's more important to me at this stage?
And how do I also add 500 fucking Bitcoin? See, I want to add 500 Bitcoin. While you guys are fucking around with one saying I have an advantage. No, dude, I want to buy 500 more below 100 grand.
I think it's the fucking trade of a lifetime. It does not require me to ever look at a chart.
a lifetime that does not require me to ever look at a chart. I could literally go away
and be in the middle of Timbuktu. It doesn't fucking matter. I own a shitload of Bitcoin.
That's the greatest investment opportunity of a lifetime. If you're really serious about super
wealth and ease, an ability to live a really cool life i'll end there
i was gonna mention if you i never knew this really interesting what i found out
ultra well i think it's generally people who have enough money where a hedge fund is going to take
you their net worth is made out of very interesting to know one third is real estate one third is
equities and usually the last third
a lot of the times is either with a hedge fund or it's in bonds that last third i never knew this
found it very interesting and generally what they do every time there's a crash they're obviously
their equities go down obviously their real estate generally goes down a lot of times and what they
do is they reallocate because that last third is in hedge fund or it's in bonds.
And that percentage obviously has been to become higher.
Maybe that 30% becomes 40 or 50%.
They reallocate what they made from the crash.
They reallocate it into real estate, into equities.
I think in this day and age, you could consider equities, you know, consider Bitcoin's not an equity equity but that would probably be part of that one-third at least what was interesting too i found out jeffrey epstein's of
all people his kind of net worth thing how what it was made out of leaked out or something um i
think a month or two ago and it was exactly that one-third was a hedge fund one-third was equities
like an old guy right like my lawyer who's a thousand years old he'll have a 50 bond portfolio
and he will not have looked at it he knows my whole bitcoin story but he just cannot get it
and he's going to be there forever that's cool he's not but listen just because you're ultra
wealthy and i think there's 356 or so thousand families in the world, I think, that are ultra-wealthy.
Yeah, I think that's right.
30 plus million.
It does not mean that they end their lives ultra-wealthy.
And the average number is 30, okay?
So many of those people will go broke.
And most of them, their wealth was made from a highly, highly concentrated position.
Most of the money that's earned, the greatest amount of money that's in the system is earned
from entrepreneurs, people building businesses and making billions of dollars.
This concept of diversifying and moving around and flipping and flopping and arbitraging the fucking markets and spreads, that's not how most of the money is ever made.
Like, I've never made my money doing that.
I made my money building businesses and selling them.
So, and it's highly concentrated, and you can't fucking focus on anything else, you work 18 hour days at least and uncle gary i
want to thank you uh for coming on same thing with uh all the other speakers i uh i gotta go
now guys it's been an interesting stream we've been yapping for uh about four and a half hours
now uh i hate to end it here man because we're really um on a roll but
i do have to attend something right now which i'd have to put my full focus on but i want to thank
all the speakers once again gary evan naka uh mike alfred uh prometheus um i think yeah his name is btc ai mining stock guy whatever his name is
he's changed his handle a few times so uh pardon me brother if you're still listening or on the
panel uh spaces are acting weird like i see listeners uh i saw listeners like it showed
listeners on the panel and they still are speaking so you're still here on the panel i see you as a listener maybe you're still speaker i'm not sure i want to thank you for
coming on man same thing with uh any of the other people who spoke in case um i had forgotten again
we were yapping for about four and a half hours man what an incredible show thank you thank you
naka thanks for coming on as always but guys if this is your first time tuning in and you've been enjoying the conversation
over the last four and a half hours and want to keep up with what we do here, we are Because
Bitcoin.
And the show that you're listening to right now here on X Spaces is called Market Talk.
I'm the host, Wabi.
I've been doing this for just over three years now.
And really, the purpose of the show is to talk all things markets, hence the name.
We talk all things BTC, alts. We talk a lot about TratFi and macro as well. And usually we have a
couple of guys up here on the panel that have been with us for a number of months or even number of
years. Like Evan's been up here for years. Same thing with Naka. Uncle Mike has been with us for
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one-stop shop for all your things, markets, and you want to tune into a daily live stream, feel
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so you can kind of think of this as a show that's really
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Insights
P
The crypto market is witnessing significant activity with Solana's 6.7 coin and Tomato AI coin reaching new highs, indicating a bullish trend despite a broader market pullback.
Welcome to the living
Welcome to the living what's going on boys afro what's going on man? We're going to be having big cheds here in a little bit and we're also going to have some of our other speakers like Naka and a few others later on in the show. I'm making yet another all-time high and some things on chain are popping off
on Sol as always. 6.7 coin is just blasting. You also have that
Despite the broader crypto market pullback, specific projects like Avisi and KLED are making fresh local highs, showcasing pockets of growth within the ecosystem.
on Sol as always. 6.7 coin is just blasting. You also have that
Sol Tomato AI coin also making new highs as well. But the broader crypto market is on a pullback.
Things like Avisi are also making fresh local highs. Things like
Bitcoin's potential to blast through $100K is anticipated to shock the market, indicating a strong bullish sentiment among investors.
new all-time highs and i really think uh what we've been discussing on the show where btc just
blast through 100k is really going to shock people um and i understand that we have had some people
on the show and also some things that you might have seen on your timeline where this is being compared to the March 2022 complacency shoulder. And the context is just
The entire crypto market is looking bullish year-to-date, with Bitcoin well above December highs, suggesting a strong upward momentum.
chuds here in the audience i'll send him an invite to speak and
the entire crypto market year to date is uh is looking pretty damn bullish you have btc
well above the uh december highs i think if you put in a weekly close above 97 i think it's off
Bitcoin's inflection point around $97K has historically led to significant rallies, indicating a critical level for future price movements.
well above the uh december highs i think if you put in a weekly close above 97 i think it's off
to the races and 97 98k has kind of been that inflection point for really any huge rally that Bitcoin has had over the last year.
That was the inflection point around this time last year before the inauguration high at 110.
The potential return of traditional trading dynamics in crypto, as AI slot bots are eliminated, could revitalize the market, suggesting a shift back to more organic trading.
The old algorithm from 2023, 2022, 2021 might actually come back.
And this little niche of CT might come back, which is great for all of us, man.
My timeline was looking very disgusting for uh for
The current market dynamics suggest a strong bullish sentiment, with many indicators pointing towards a potential rally in the coming months.
And here we are, man. We're starting off the year great. Lots of momentum. Equity markets
look tremendous. And just want to welcome you back onto the show, man. Welcome, welcome.
Oh, sorry. This is a Wendy's. Yeah, that would have been the mood
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
you know like we all want like fresh content but like you know somebody's got to do it so good work
man keep it up thanks man i i i try to curate these spaces more so of a conversation not so much of an interview i think interviews are are outdated
and they they don't really generate new audiences because because you can grow a following but if
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
consistency and more than anything just showing uh genuineness and actually speaking on things
that i know about you know like i don't know shit about bonds but when it comes to altcoins and just
crypto specific stuff i i try to be well informed so you're catching these moves on like
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
remaining low-key and um i i think that's gonna change and i'll probably be more open once
i see bitcoin flip full bull um once it puts in at least two back-to-back weekly closes above 100k
that i would be more confident in the market at that point it's a big level it's a big
The speaker's skepticism about the market's current trajectory indicates a cautious but ultimately bullish outlook for Bitcoin's future performance.
And just for me, the way I trade, you know, methodically, like losing the weekly 50 and like I said, you know, inability to hold 107.5, I still think we're going way lower, despite like these reasons to be bullish, despite like all this other stuff.
despite like these reasons should be bullish despite like all this other stuff um it's like
when we get a little bit of medicine with a little bit of green we get a little bit of pump up and
The speaker's focus on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
like the four-year cycle or or any of that stuff not so much not really no it's just like we lost
the weekly ma50 and we should have held the 107.5 like the the trend is badly damaged and like a
minor bounced here to like 96k 97k 100, 100K, like doesn't, that doesn't change
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
It's fine.
Like everybody does well if the price goes up.
But it's, you know, it's just, I think, more prudent to look at the damage that's been done to the trend.
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
crypto is a momentum oscillator it's not really like a like a buy and hold you know by crypto
it's a game of hot potato man
you know what i mean yeah yeah but what's it like what's it like wabi to be up 600 like how does
The speaker's focus on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
like two months if that there have been very few altcoins that have managed to outperform majors
uh quarter after quarter so with that being said like i'm not really a believer in any altcoin and
like when i see these stories of oh just wait until yeah uh it crosses xyz
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
So it is a completely different market
than how it was in 2021 and 2017, right?
Yeah.
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
Yeah, and it just sucks away liquidity, and retail has no money
because they keep getting absolutely scammed for just no reason.
And it's just really frustrating.
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
Solana's, is like trying to
break out it's trying you know but um it may sink or swim a little bit with bitcoin here leading the
way um in terms of like dictating a little bit you know how the market goes but like for example
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
rare cheds to see something have a breakout and it trades at a market cap of over 10 billion
yeah for that not to cause at least some form of breadth in the crypto space yeah it's kind of like
a risk on signal of sorts yeah for something that big Yeah, and perhaps we see things like a small ETH BTC rally,
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
Then they see Monero and they're like, oh, man, the market's topping.
But I think the precedent is a bit different.
Like Monero is a coin that's trading well above 10 bill, which that is a ton of money, man.
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
Yeah, I don't know, man.
You know, I'm going to remain cautious for sure.
Certainly 100K, but really 107.5.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
I'm here because of this and then like if that idea fails don't like look for another reason to keep holding
You know, you just got it. You just got to take it like one shot at a time i think and um like you said posting when not everyone's watching
creating content when like numbers are low you just gotta keep plugging away man i mean there's
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
And it's just algo is so annoying, you know?
Yeah.
Yeah.
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
kato you know the guy who lived in the beach house no oh you're too young man damn you're
too young the older boomers
in the audience the other unks like me they know about kato yeah kato oh boy that was something
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
I mean,
I forgot to mention this, man, but
SanDisk made another all-time high.
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
It's just like I think there's this thing that people have on
on crypto twitter where it's like if it's not trending on their timeline they're just not
gonna buy it they're not gonna buy it if it's not trending i think people are scared to actually
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
I just don't care what it is.
Like it's numbers, it's letters or rather.
It's just a symbol.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
Thanks for coming on, Cheds. Thank you. Thank you, bro. I appreciate everybody this call to Wabi. It was good to cook up with your brother, alright? Yeah, no problem, man. Thanks for coming on, Cheds. Thank you, thank you, bro.
I appreciate it, everybody. Stay blessed. Peace.
Thank you, man. Until next time. I'll pass it over to Afro. Afro, what's going on, man?
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
I know this was like, you know, over a year ago that Lee last saw me,
but I dropped down weight tremendously, just cutting carbs and all that good stuff.
And I didn't know you had to take probiotics whenever you're, you know,
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
I paid off all my debts on January 2
officially
So I don't incur some some cap gains
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
i'm super happy that monero is finally having its day in the sun um i think it wholeheartedly deserves to be higher but uh ultimately you know
it's it's getting delisted off of the most majority of exchanges other than i think kraken
but i think they stopped doing something on futures with them um or maybe you can't do perps on on
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
but uh i'm glad man uh good crypto deserves to stay around and i think the the the ethos of of
crypto you know being cypherpunk it really found its home in monero and um you know, I think what is it right now like seven something right now, maybe eight
Yeah, Monero right now is uh, i'm more so looking at like the the uh the market cap, but yeah
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
are all about privacy, like rail gun, I hope they get their,
their stuff together and, and they're able to, you know, do something more.
And hopefully this, you know,
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
I think silver is actually up like three and a half X since the April low.
And Monero is up like four.
But nonetheless, man, it's been a tremendous a tremendous uh window of opportunity
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
And not much happened in the market after that.
The market peaked shortly after that.
Well, we all know what happened there.
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wrong on that because i i don't think i have been wrong i think i've done a great job at pivoting in
every single inflection point and we've called practically every single trend on chain
on this show but this price action just it kind of reminds me of uh at this point now that we've
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
you've got to hold something above that. So I hope we do. I think,
I think for everybody though, it's, it's probably, you know,
different structure, different folks, obviously, but, um, you know,
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
you know,
not trying to time bottoms or,
or sell tops.
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
like a lighter community space i'm not going to say who it was because like the space is recorded but like it was probably like the most toxic community
that i've ever stepped into um since like the solana meme coin craze um in the summer of 2024
with some of those communities or like they would launch a ticker that already existed on ETH, for example, some of those communities,
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
I don't think they did VC raise.
Didn't they partner up with like Robinhood
or something like that to be there?
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
That's OG.
Yeah.
That's like early 2021, bro.
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it's just yeah it's just um transactional that's what it is it's it's all transactional man
you know i do i do if can i shill uh my buddy's decks i mean it's it's his own decks but it's it's
really good he he made it all by himself uh would you would you mind if i show his decks does it
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
Anytime I need to add, you know, I can literally talk to him about anything and say, hey, can we add this?
Because I want to bid on this.
I don't see it.
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
Does it have heavy liquidity?
It does.
Go ahead, man.
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
you know you you can do what you need on it you can do what you need on it that's yeah i mean that
that is a terrible lane like
legitimately terrible well it's wonderful that it's not mine and it's not yours either but
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
well our unique
selling point is going to be
you can only short
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
there's actually a platform
where that's all you can do.
It's like inverse pump fun
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That is hilarious.
But I'm still bullish on Monero.
What do you guys think of me tripling down on my monero position here
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
And here we are.
pump and the six seven coin are probably going to trend really hard i like that tomato coin too man
have you checked that out naka we talked about it i think um when you came back on on uh on friday
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
i'm just saying like there are some things going on on chain that are interesting but not to the
point where like i'm gonna post about it um i really don't want like any reply guys to like
go under my post and say oh it's down 10 down 10% on the day or whatever, which it's not.
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
Just not right now, because I think you actually need BTC above 100K.
I think you need Sol above 180.
ETH, who cares, but maybe above 3 800 i would say right um
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
you don't want to be holding a vc coin um the reason i'm the reason i'm kind of like
allowing myself to be a bull with um monero is because it's not a vc coin right like it's not
it's not really part it's crypto but it's not really part of the crypto ecosystem um
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
90 to minus 95 um you know the market doesn't care about your coin it doesn't care about your narrative
it only cares whether there are more buyers than sellers or more sellers than buyers
david you had your hand up man how are you man how are you holding up
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
and I come in, I lose the spaces, so that's why I drop down, I come back up.
back up. Anyway, so
Anyway, so just a couple things, I'll let you guys get going.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
our inflation. They're not going to
be able to buy commodities. They're not going to be able
to buy crude oil, coal to make the cement for the tall buildings. Indonesia, all-time low today. India,
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
We got to a 562 for a seven-year fixed rate, six-month adjustable.
That's three basis points from a three-year low.
The 30-year fix, that's 604 or so.
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
there's just this natural thing that when you start going above 100, which is the current one, nobody wants those.
Because then you refinance, you lose money.
So the bottom line is mortgage rates are looking like they want to go a lot lower.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
and it's getting worse.
And you look at Microsoft, you look at Adobe,
you look at Salesforce.
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
And he's saying, oh, software at 14 times, I like it here, you know,
last year, two years ago, it's five times sales. It's going lower. And if you look at these names
like Amazon and Meta, you look at Google, you look at Microsoft and Apple, I call it Mama.
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That is the measurement of deterioration of liquidity.
That's the distillation of evaporation of liquidity. If look at those two you go back to dot-com
then the nasdaq volatility was more than twice as high as the the s p volatility the vix
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
They come in and the passive money starts flowing.
And what happens when you start recognizing that, hey,
these three sectors will benefit a lot from tech?
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
all that money out of tech.
And it's going to drive up the dollar.
So we're starting to see
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
by these large language
models that are just getting better.
You see Adobe anytime soon?
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
There's a lot of money trapping.
It's not. You're getting a repricing across the board.
How about Walmart versus Amazon? That's not looking so pretty for Amazon. How is it?
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
You get to the GFC, these people have really rationalized.
So when you get to the peak, you know, the NASDAQ bottoms at 800, the NASDAQ 100.
It doubles.
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
Then you're off to the races.
But there was a lot
of trouble there. A lot of
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
I mean, this is 1997 currency love. Korea couldn't cut last night. I don't know if you know,
Korea didn't cut yesterday. People thought they would.
They can't. They had to intervene over the new years. Their currency is in free fall going back
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
And a lot less of the normal came to us.
That's why our trade deficit collapsed down to 29 billion last month. We're
growing at 5.3 according to Atlanta Fed down from 5.4. They'll probably write that up to 5.6, 5.7.
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
short volatility, which means they're short gamma, which means the market goes up. They get hurt,
and they got to buy. The market goes down. They get hurt, they got to sell. But when you have a falling market, when you have underperforming markets that are doing worse
than the S&P, and that money's flowing out, you know, and then take a look at Bitcoin today.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
Yeah, absolutely.
That just means fewer people are willing to do the chaos
and more people want to do the harvest.
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
is very small, it could be very volatile
because it only has like a million
dollar market cap.
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
a trillion dollar market cap,
two trillion dollar market cap.
There just isn't enough money in the world to move that.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
It's very, very important.
Okay.
You know, I know a little about how converts work, credit default swaps, capital structure.
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
It said it's coming tomorrow.
It was not for me.
It's somebody else.
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
So he came up with this idea, let me sell some preferreds.
He's had to raise the yields on the preferreds
to try to get them to kind of stay anywhere in the range of par.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
she's being sued as I said she would be sued
for that non-transparent disclosure.
You only had $18 billion
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
of the company.
They took the credits
default swaps
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
stock against the preferreds. And then he's going to end up driving microstrategy to a discount to
the coin. And at 20% or 25%, the board will either get rid of sailor or make it that the
CEO buys the stock in by selling coin. They got no choice. It would be complete malpractice.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
hostile takeovers
of the closed-end fund to get rid of the discount
there will be people remember uh what's his name chenos was shorting uh micro strategy at three
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
But as prices go down, they will get hedged and they will drive, in all likelihood, MicroStrategy to a discount.
And then those 687,000 coins, which you will try to top off at 700, they're going to get separated
from the company. So when you have all these people on the internet saying, oh, it's so great,
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
be pretty. But it creates a lot of opportunity
But it creates a lot of opportunity when you have these down waves.
when you have these down waves.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
seasons. That's what I have
to say.
And Prometheus, feel free to follow that up man i don't think uh yeah you've had the chance to be sure um i gotta go in here i gotta go into the bank here pretty soon but um thanks a lot for me
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
put in some form of shoulder, you know, and typically when you get consensus within the
market, it's generally not the most ideal position to necessarily be taking. Sometimes it works out,
sometimes it doesn't, right? That's markets for you. But with that being said, I still lean within the kind of shoulder camp.
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and are waiting to get back into the market or three, they never sold and they're down bad,
right? So what from a psychological perspective could you do in relation to time that would
really, let's just say, get the juices flowing. You create what's called a lockout rally and you
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
You don't have to put your hand up.
There's something that's very important that just came out that you can't ignore.
that just came out that you can't ignore.
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
This means that as volatility goes down in the bond, in the treasury market, one of two
things happen.
Either rates are going massively lower or massively higher because you got everyone
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
though david there's no there's no supply like that's no supply of what single families
single families so that means that that means the price has to it's been anemic that means the price
has to go that means the price has to go up yeah i know i mean it's going to be great for companies
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
David, I hate to interrupt you.
I have like five minutes here.
I'm just going to finish my point real quick.
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
candlesticks on your monthlies. I cannot ignore that, right? I view the price above kind of like
110 as you created essentially, you know, weeks and weeks and weeks worth of supply.
Now, localized price action. I understand from, if you take a fixed volume
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
that I like to watch,
and that is your 365-day rolling VWAP at 100K.
So you have a lot of resistance to chew through.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
make middle class, make the people that actually transact within this market in a meaningful way,
make them, if they're able to make that demographic wealthy again, right? And I don't
mean by putting a ton of money in their pockets. What I mean is stabilize the cost of living,
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
you know, I have no problem expecting higher prices.
But until then, I have a really tough time
just from a price perspective,
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
late this time it's getting yeah it went a little long at the gym but uh yeah i mean basically i
think this is like one of the first places as we kind of get um really close to that like 50 weekly
moving average that we were talking about yesterday for Bitcoin.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
that the masses are always wrong.
I think the masses are right that you will come up to 100.
But the question is, can you break through?
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
people have mentioned it for the past few days i think that's got a good shot of getting back up
to like it's um what is it like 2011 highs similar to kind of what silver did but you know i mean
sequel is always worse than the original you're going to probably not see anything do, go as crazy as silver has gone.
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
in the gold i mean i would hope that maybe some of that money goes into all coins some of that
money goes into bitcoin i think it will but probably not enough to really, you know, bring on the Apple run. So I think it's going to be more of an energy
centric bull market probably until the summer. I think in terms of interest rates, like I don't
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
kind of, you know, like clockwork maybe with the first like a little bit, but I think the recovery
is going to be a little bit earlier. And I think things bottom out a little bit earlier every time.
I mean, keep in mind, Ethereum bottomed out in June of 2022. It could bottom out in May of 2026
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
I completely missed out on silver.
I didn't think that would go as crazy as it did, but got some uranium, got some LXE, Oxnall Petroleum, trying to hold those, you know, four to six to eight months, you know,
those areas, and then converting into Ethereum, which would be probably my main crypto pick,
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
Once those turn bright again, I know, you know, if you know, you know,
with EMAs, once those turn bright again,
that's a good place to really get in whatever that may be.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
type of bets for the spot market in terms of very short market i mean short-term market i mean try
to get up to 100k that's all i'll say right now so yeah yeah man there's uh there's always a
yeah man there's uh there's always a bull market somewhere right like i think um
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
I think the worst thing that would happen is like, we just make a marginal high to like 130K.
And then we repeat the same exact thing that happened in q1 and q2
uh and q1 of last year and we just repeat that in q2 of this year um i think that would be shitty
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
Rather than this perpetual grind up in unemployment,
which we know is just going to be up and to the right.
If you believe that UBI is going to be a thing, which I do,
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
the way they do analysis is that they just type in their thoughts on on chat gpt and they come out
with they come out with uh paragraphs of just pure slop
and perhaps that's what markets are going to be evan right just pure slop how does it make sense
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
And the age of these multi-year bear markets are are over with um but i oh my god yeah hey
dude the last time we had a multi-year bear market was in 2000 because 2000 oh you mean
and you mean you mean in trad fi in anything in anything in crypto and trad fi like dude the last
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
gonna miss it but i could be wrong on that whatever just wanted just wanted to mention
real quick i mean that you look at that that is true but like if you look at that whole decade
like the s p 500 in 2011 or 2010 was the same price it was in 2000 10 years later so i mean
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
Obviously, that was the crazy gold rally,
but I think there's going to be a lost decade, man.
Like, if you're talking about UBI,
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
Like if you do see like kind of like, oh, wait, like that was kind of the ingredients, you know, for somebody, well, Obama presented himself more moderately in the beginning,
but like even looking back to FDR, like that was very radical left at the time, like somebody FDR,
you need things to really come down and then people really want change and they'll vote for
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
kind of in the 1930s. I mean, the British pound still exists. It's probably down 99.9% since the
1930s. I don't know the exact thing, but I think it'll be like that. It just keeps slowly going
down. But there's going to be bad decades for the S&P 500.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
since 2021 and um this is going to be a pretty crazy statistic but from their respective peaks last cycle the
s p peaking out of 4 800 and btc at 69k if you would have bought in those tops right you would
have been up more on the s p 500 than on btc isn't that crazy bro and with inflation adjusted that's
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
So over the next, like, two and a half years, I genuinely believe Kiwi and Zerp is going to happen.
And then that, I think, like, it'll kind of be like a more extreme version
of what happened after the COVID cycle,
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
just as a trade there were a lot more opportunities q4 23 q1 24 um by an extreme amount i think a lot
of people including myself took it for granted and um yeah i kind of think the same thing is
going to happen but just to like a a a more extreme degree, especially if it's going to be a Trump administration where Trump is basically not only the president, but he's also like, I guess, like the pseudo head of the Federal Reserve because he will be.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
it was actually was actually a pretty nice conversation man i think people just give him
a lot of crap for no reason man but um he knows he knows how to attract the crowd and get people riled
up and all that stuff,
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
Did Joe
Kolasar actually crash out last time?
No, I think he was getting a phone call, man.
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
And BTC. I don't S&P 500, man. And BTC.
I don't really think he trades, man.
I think the only trade I've heard him talk about is something about bond calls
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
And I think that if you look at like the betting odds and where like the money is betting
too, I mean, it's only like what, two rate cuts this year.
And that's assuming that Trump puts in exactly who he wants to put into.
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
Like there's big successes Trump has and there's big failures kind of like Trump coin, Melania coin.
Like you don't talk about that no more.
You know what I mean?
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
That's nuts, man.
That is absolutely nuts.
I think that happens with crypto probably like the next batch of QE.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
Other things can happen, right?
We saw tariffs that caused such a huge meltdown where they had to basically use a bunch of reserves to pump up the market.
And if what Bisset is saying is true, then like the face ripper rally likely starts in like two months, three months, like the real Omega rally, which so far Bessent hasn't really been wrong as far as dictating like where the economy goes in correlation with markets, which I think this is one of the first times, man, in modern day history where like you have an active like what percent is what like the head of the treasury actively be bullish on markets.
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
request button just click the spaces tab right at the bottom left you'll see that little mic that
says request and uh and i'll bring you
right on up i'll give it a i'll give it a few moments but just uh one more call out for you
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for two months or something and make people believe that it's a bull market
and whatever, I just want to know what else people are actually, you know,
buying if they're bullish, what do they think is good?
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
of like the only um trades in the equity market outside of hood that I've done that have actually like been pleasantly
surprising, honestly. Um, yeah, I think Cypher also did pretty well. Um, yeah, he can come up
if, if you like, I'm sending him an invite to speak, but, uh, yeah. and i think iron probably um outperforms uh outperforms mstr like
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
yeah, this is, you know, this is the hot new thing that's up and coming.
Uh, I would be interested to hear that.
Because, I mean, I am a bear right now.
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
price right and the realized price i haven't got it up
in front of me but it's like 50k at the moment or something or 40k something like that so like
i i am kind of bearish right um until it goes below that realized price and then comes back
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
Yeah.
I think ETH right now is just kind of like
a more expedited version of Amazon stock after .com.
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
Like when was the last time anyone here actually used eth i mean i i like ethereum i haven't used
it for like 12 months right it has a half trillion dollar market cap with no users this is like a red
flag yeah i'm not too sure about like no users because like people still use like DeFi and all that stuff.
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base right that's where like the virtuals ecosystem operates.
And I think like if you hold stable coins,
you're probably going to hold them on Ethereum
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
and this dovish guy that Trump brings in, perhaps slashes rates at the next FOMC by a good amount,
and does some light QE, that would probably spike up ETH.
And I think we all know that the ETH eco is likely going to blow up in a big way to the upside after all this happens.
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
it does happen okay maybe there is like the big qe thing right maybe you know in june like yeah
trump is like rates back to zero and then okay we're on but like i'm not gonna buy ether now Based upon like fundamentals of people saying that you know
Trump is gonna is gonna like low rates, right?
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
made new all-time highs like there there's i don't think there's ever been a point to fade
trump when it comes to the stock market he is the stock market man like there's there's never been
there's never been anyone more influential in market history than Donald J. Trump.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
person and it has to go into surgery and sometimes accidents happen but it's going to be okay just give it a few more months and what happened in a
few months after that like the biggest recovery uh in stock market history you know yeah i mean
you did completely nuke everything with like liberation day and his tariffs right so that
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
the noise you don't care who the president is right but like i mean if you're in crypto you
kind of do care because if you if your narrative is running, and then Trump blows up all markets and everything, you know,
legacy markets crash 30%,
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
month since uh we last spoke a lot of interesting stuff has happened since then the nakeys and price
discovery the iwm is actually expanding this time in a big way you also have euro stocks
um making all-time highs and the s p is about to make an all-time high probably by the end of the
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
You don't have to ask me if I can come if you do it at like 1230 Pacific.
And then just this week, I've had like four or five board meetings and board calls, had
some back stuff.
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
and that whole process is just accelerating um across the board i think there's going to be subsumed. It's all going to be used up. It's all going to be leveraged. And that whole
process is just accelerating across the board. I think there's going to be, I don't know, this
year, there's going to be dozens of major combination cloud and colo agreements announced
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
And in addition to the things you mentioned, like the small caps outperforming the large caps,
the equal-weighted S&P is significantly outperforming the S&P year-to-date.
It outperformed yesterday.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
underperformed for three or four years now.
So everything from small caps to biotech, which has recently started to outperform,
sectors like consumer staples this year, which are all of a sudden have woken up and are
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
like the manufacturing sector hasn't really had anything that looks like an expansion yet.
My suspicion is because of all the chicanery and all the crazy things that Trump is working on right now,
and I think he has good intentions with some of those things,
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
So you go down the list of all these things
that he's pulling on these levers right now.
I think what he's trying to do
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
look, BNB's up and Solana's up off the bottom and Ethereum is up,
but none of these things have gone into sort of parabolic price discovery above previous all-time
highs from 2021. And it makes sense because there really haven't been the correct liquidity
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
I'm aware of Sharpling.
I'm aware of the other treasury company strategies, but nothing has been as pervasive as the Bitcoin
treasury strategy, and no ETF has had as much success as Ibit. And so Bitcoin has basically
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
direct exposure or viewed as having some direct exposure to AI. Something that sort of launched
in the consumer consciousness in 2022 with ChatGPT during the last sort of deeply negative
part of the bear market for U.S. equities. And so we've had like a nice recovery, right,
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
and they're all exposed to the AI data center.
A thematic, again, a thematic
that probably has 20 or 30 years to run
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
blockbuster video and there's a very real risk given how quickly the AI adoption curve is moving
up that that the companies that don't invest correctly here don't invest enough can actually
become somewhat irrelevant
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
So effectively, like the game theory of the math
is like there's really no amount of money
that's too much to defend a two or three
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
And the answers you can get from Google Gemini just in the regular Google search bar are
really good.
They're far better than the answers you would get from just getting a list of links where
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
That's a tough game.
It's not a game I necessarily want to play.
And personally, the game I want to play is I want to serve all those people beans in
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
compute right now, every single hyperscaler is calling you every single day.
And they're asking for more, more, more, more, more every single day.
They're asking for more iterations on how they can do more, how they can get more power, how they can get more buildings stood up faster.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
probably significantly more before the pullback.
And it really does remind me of like 97, 96, 97, 98, even internet,
where you weren't wrong to say the internet is a bubble because eventually it was a bubble.
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heat-up periods feel like, where
there's some chirping from people that don't know anything yet because they missed it.
And so it's really important to convince their investors or their friends or whoever they
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
And almost none of the capacity that's available has even been put under contract yet.
So I'm sort of chuckling.
I'm like, who are these people that come out of the woodwork saying we're in a bubble?
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
front run that. But in order for the market to front run that, we need to go multiples higher
on a number of different things. We need to see a lot more FOMO and a lot more mania and a lot more euphoria. And if we see that and it pulls forward enough of that
demand, then I'll change my view. But right now, I see a lot more fear and uncertainty from people
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
And I'm telling you, it's accelerating.
So I'm just going to continue to do what I've been doing, right?
Like, it's worked really well.
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
The ETFs are not shrinking.
They're growing.
The treasury companies, none of the major treasury companies are selling Bitcoin.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
whatever this year, maybe even running 2027.
I think for the small caps and for the equal weighted S&P,
effectively 480 or 450 companies
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
In crypto, like I'm watching Ethereum and Solana and pretty much everything else, anything
that moves there for signs that liquidity is going to start to make its way beyond that.
I added more Ethereum in the last few weeks.
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
personally as a long-term vc style play i plan to hold for 20 years and the other one i bought in my
fund they're wildly different oh okay it's your fund yeah okay but what's your what's your target
for ethereum then probably over the next 24 months i'm not sure over the next 24 months? I'm not sure over the next 24 months,
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
and then the utility specifically for stable coins i just see not only narrative support but flow support for
the foreseeable future which given better macro which i see coming over the next three to six
months like i can see ethereum re-rating to five six k quite easily and of course if it breaks
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
Like, look at Venezuela.
Why do you think stablecoins are going to help ETH?
Like, nobody pays any fees on ETH anymore.
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
Like, is it kind of a vibes-based
thing where, like, the good
vibe of stablecoins will make people
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
And again, part of my thesis is macro, such that if the money starts to go out further on the curve, it's going to go beyond Bitcoin.
And it maybe will impact some of these things that are even more kind of silly than Ethereum.
But I actually don't think Ethereum is silly.
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They still use it for decentralized trading.
Look, Bitcoin doesn't generate
any fees for the users either, but the
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
So as long as...
Okay, but I mean, I feel like
there's a bit of a sort of
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
Yeah, but here's the thing, Wabi.
If you're bullish on something for five years and it doesn't work,
should you keep being bullish or should you ask skeptical questions?
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
i'm not i'm not saying that you like i'm not saying that you're personally down i'm just saying that like the asset hasn't actually moved in price right it's it's been in a long-term consolidation
with no loss or no gain overall right the asset doesn't have any protocol revenue nobody spends
any money on it so these are both kind of bearish so i'm trying to see what is the rational case i
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
Probably.
Almost certainly.
Will Ethereum be more useful than dollars?
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
So I'm not an NFT bull.
I'm not an artwork bull.
But I understand that other people
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
you say when you say model like a seven
to eight k ethereum like what does this model consist of what's the model it consists of
some view of the different use cases uh for ethereum over time and which which ones are
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
Okay.
What's the NFC?
Naka, you're going to have a brain aneurysm, dude.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
But if you look at what happened between 2000 and 2010, obviously it was a lost decade for the Nasdaq.com type of stuff.
Do you think that could be similar with AI and crypto in the 2030s?
I mean, it wasn't really a lost decade for investors who were diversified.
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
Like, effectively, I need lots of Nakamoto's
in the world in order to make the types of returns
that I've made over the last few years.
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
Naka, no, you were not.
Yeah, I was.
I publicly posted it.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
i'm not going to say anything else about you specifically but i want the comment i want to
make is that this is what's so challenging about markets is everybody remembers the path differently everybody remembers things incorrectly everyone
including me and you can go back and listen to the recorded spaces from 2023 the one thing i can
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
the right price and if it's the right type of real estate I'm buying
everything that's more scarce than the dollar because the dollar is going to
debase the debasement trade is has been around for a long time.
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
So right now, the narrative is, well, Ethereum generates no fees for stablecoins.
There's no NFTs.
Nobody's doing decentralized trading.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
against a protocol that has the second longest lifespan
of utility after Bitcoin and there's no way to shut it off or kill it right now.
So how is it going to go down in value?
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
out compete ethereum and that all these other layer ones are going to out compete ethereum
they've all disappeared um because ethereum is as messy as it is it's still very very sticky
bitcoin's the same way the argument about bitcoin that was totally incorrect for the past 70 years
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
In an AI-generated world,
real-world experiences,
like touching somebody in person,
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
Right?
Like all it's all it's really at the chain level.
You just said it probably couldn't be that easily hacked by AI right now.
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
They're reverse options.
Effectively, you always have the ability to turn on feed generation, just like a startup
who's selling you food delivery.
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more supportive and the U.S. government fully adopts it, you're already so embedded in the ecosystem you can't you can't
be pulled out so i just look i think that's optionality value it's a call option that's
possible it's it's certainly possible but like you know ethereum like what ethereum is actually
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
That's kind of what Ethereum is doing with block space.
They're making it extremely cheap.
The same thing is the value of the token.
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
I don't care about that personally.
I care about how much is a token,
how much is one Ethereum going to be worth
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
But if you're making the argument that block space
is going to be more or less valuable,
I don't really care.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
for the past 10 years especially anything that's except bitcoin right so like
maybe that trade is a little bit exhausted
now that we've got to, you know, a half trillion dollar charity that doesn't have any revenue.
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
But I was just wondering if there was anything else.
I love you.
You re-summarize what I say,
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Yeah, unfortunately, you know,
I haven't got there, but one day.
One day, like I'm a pump, I'll be in the pump.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
the bots and the quant traders and all those guys, they're going to know more about the direction of
the market in the next millisecond, in the next five milliseconds, the next few seconds, few
minutes, because they see everything, the option chains, the flows, they're in every
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
is tell you anything about exactly what will happen a year from now
or two years from now or three years from now on a point-to-point basis.
And what I see a lot of investors doing and traders doing
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
Sorry, 30, 40 X off the bottom. I mean, iron in particular has been up over 50 X off the bottom.
And at one point it was up almost 80 X off the bottom. But you had to go through three 50 percent
plus drawdowns over those 36 months. Right. So that's how you get really wealthy. Now,
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
Should I put my mental fortitude money into ETH?
Or should I put it into IRON?
Or should I put it into IWM calls?
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
And I was talking about the AI conversion opportunity before the market because I was in the business.
This is what I was saying earlier.
The real edge that allows you to size up and hold positions comes from knowing
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
I walked you through the things and then you made the argument for me.
You said AI cannot hack Bitcoin at the protocol level.
You said that.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
attacked and they cannot be
disintermediated by AI.
If you don't have an answer for that, you will lose money compared to somebody who does.
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
like, all this digital security
that you have around your bank account
and your identity,
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
right? Like AI is not going to make alcohol tomorrow. Like AI is not going to, somebody
who likes Jack Daniels or Guinness, right? Or Pacifico or Michelelob ultra like they're not going to change to an ai generated beer brand
because those those brands take decades of conditioning and marketing in order to get
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
i'm like yeah because you don't understand ai right you didn't understand bitcoin you didn't understand ai data
centers now you expect me to think that buying overvalued software stocks that are going to be
absolutely clobbered by it i mean there is there is kind of like a version of this thesis that i've
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
finance that currently happens in the banking system will actually have to quite rapidly shift to the blockchain system,
which is quite a radical thesis.
Do you believe that?
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fiat money is not systematic money it's it's funny money it takes forever to send it there's
there's too many restrictions on how you can use it um so yes almost everything that ai's do at
scale is going to require a monetization mechanism that looks much more like Ethereum
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
I'm saying Ethereum. I said Ethereum
first on purpose.
Yeah, I think it's more bullish for Ethereum.
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
So if you if this thesis if they're sort of like a fataku
Like finance moves to blockchain because AI's need to be very fast if that happens
That's extremely bearish for Bitcoin. I'm very bullish for aetherium and probably very bullet made a huge
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
like the 1996 or 1998 modem but that has nothing to do with what the consumer internet felt like
15 years later and so you're making a huge assumption that the way that we have it now but you see the way it's always
gonna be i'm telling you that it's just flat out yeah everything's accelerating the the bitcoin
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
network you're going to have thousands of agents who are all working in concert who have very
specific sets of rules engagement that they've that they've developed with each other that you'll
be able to model pretty easily because they're they're agents they're not humans so they're not
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
particular use case that uses yeah but like if you if you want to build an l2 for ais you'll
build it on eth not bitcoin because bitcoin has limitations that make it difficult to build proper
l2s that are actually trustless right the bit the l2s that you know i looked at it's a little bit a
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I bought ETH. I bought 20,000.
Well, I mean, your commentaries make me so much more fucking bullish on ETH.
I mean, look, what I'm talking about now is bullish for ETH, right? Like if you buy this
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
The question is not, I agree with you that that would be very bullish.
The question is whether this is going to happen.
I don't see what stops it.
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
these companies were going to come out and be the biggest companies in the world that was not that
was completely non-consensus and non-obvious in 1999-2000 it seems obvious now because we know
what happened i'm telling you the ai thing that's happening right now is probably bigger than that
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
AI is going like five times faster than that. And I suspect that even AI bulls right now are going to be way too bearish
about where this plays out.
And if that's correct, then there's going to be a total remaking
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
and how delayed or pulled forward that phenomenon is at any given time as it reflected in asset
prices. And that's where the nuance comes in. It's like, I'm bullish long-term on the trajectory of AI. I'm bullish long-term on
the trajectory of decentralized finance. I'm bullish on the long-term of sound money.
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
built with human users in mind, right? Nobody's ever built a blockchain from the ground up saying
this is purely going to be used by AIs, humans can fuck off, right? So if that happens, this thesis
could be right, and you're putting, you know, or we're all, we're all putting money into a half trillion dollar charity. That's like Vitalik's like socialist, you know, LARP.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
This is the electricity.
This is a connection with the electricity grid,
the ability to suck large amounts of electricity
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
in you know like physical ai hardware infrastructure is an incredible trade it's basically free money
like you know it literally almost can't go down so i'm i'm definitely it
seems like free it seems like free money now after i've made like 100 million dollars in those names
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
There are plenty of versions of the AI future that exclude Ethereum.
There are plenty that exclude Bitcoin.
There are none that exclude, like, silicon chips, right?
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
iron right like i can't buy it because i don't have a trad by account so i'm only able to buy
crypto so i have to decide what within crypto am I going to buy.
And there might be other people in that position wanting to make that kind of decision.
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
They don't cause major loss for me. I just buy more of things. And my view right now is that
the risk of a zero outcome in Bitcoin is effectively almost zero. And Ethereum is up
there close to Bitcoin. I think even Apple could go to zero before Ethereum goes to zero because Apple's a company.
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
if the whole company is collapsing.
Just because you can't shut a blockchain off
doesn't mean the price doesn't go to shit, right?
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
well you even said earlier you just don't like that there isn't enough fees but i don't really
think that it's not like you buy ethereum for a dividend yield if ethereum's proposition was
and by the way staking is this is sort of a a form of dividend yield, but let's just say that their value proposition was, oh, we're going to start charging a lot of money to stablecoin issuers, and that's what we're going to use to send money to you as an Ethereum holder.
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
Um, but here's, here's another way to look at that.
And this is probably getting into the weeds a bit, but one of the trade-offs that Ethereum
made that was, that turned out to be a good bet was they deliberately decided not to be very innovative in their technology, right? So
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
It's bullish because I think blockchain actually does have a good synergy with AI, which is that
it's fast and it's open 24 hours a day, unlike normal banking. And normal banking is never going
to fix that.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
I mean, and also in terms of buying it, right?
It seems like you're shilling Jensen, man.
It seems like you're shilling.
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and then ethereum goes down to like you know back down to a thousand or whatever right and then at
that point ai kind of starts hotting up and then this you know gensyn this kind of like blockchain
for ais only kind of appears and that actually starts getting all of that activity like that
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
of, of 2020, very briefly, right before the fed and treasury stepped in and backstopped everything.
very briefly right before the Fed and Treasury stepped in and backstopped everything.
I just, again, as I said earlier in my opening comments, like how are you going to get that
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
statistically probabilistically yeah you you could disagree but i think you're
going to lose a lot like once again you're going to be like i'm not retired yet i'm not independent
wealthy i'm like the reason why i am is because i'm going to take this trade like i'm going to
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
these premises in this case a red a total red herring like just let's make up a number let's
assume the guy investing has a million dollars is it a is it a bad decision from an expected
value standpoint to put a million dollars in the theorem is it a good decision to do it if it's a thousand well in terms of like in terms of it doesn't matter what the amount is
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
That kind of thing.
You'd look at portfolio theory.
Now, if your upside for ETH is like a double, that's a 2X,
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
I was there in 2017.
I bought some at 25 and 30 bucks.
The annualized rolling volatility
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
compressed relative to history.
Same with Bitcoin. That's one of the reasons
why I'm still lagging into some IBIT call options further up, because I'm very confident at some point,
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
It has kind of crabbed around a lot, right?
It has been up and down.
I mean, when you look at these things, you have to consider what's the sharp ratio of this instrument.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
did you just tell me that like i mean i'm not saying it for, I'm not saying it for you.
I'm not saying it for you.
I'm saying it for everyone who's listening, right?
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
allocate that much. No, that's not, it depends.
2x in what time frame?
What return?
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
It is, but you know, for portfolio theory, you have to consider the volatility.
If you compound it 20 or 25 or 30% for 30 years, you're going to be a billionaire, right?
Yeah, but this is why portfolio theory has volatility in it because, you know, some of that volatility is down as well, right?
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
Large dollars, look, I have a lot of things that i think could do 30 percent kegers or even more
but you don't want to put 100 of your money in things that you think could do 30 or 40 percent
because those things have a correlation of one whenever there's a major liquidity
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
great chat but just to be clear like i've said that in every major conversation i've had about
crypto over eight or nine years now so like this is not a new thing like anybody who's listened to
me i talk about energy companies i talk about dividend stocks
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
to other things that have underperformed um And you're seeing that sort of rotation happening right now
in the U.S. capital markets where a lot of the stuff
that was getting beat up at the end of the year
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
and other stuff because I don't think anyone here needs to hear that, honestly,
because almost everybody here has heard me say,
you should be diversified.
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
until kind of the end of 2021, Ethereum outperforming Bitcoin.
And I would think that that's mainly because of loose monetary policy.
And I think that that would be the main reason
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
will maybe re-see, I don't think we're going to go really below 1800, but you could see,
re-see 1800, 2000, those areas for Ethereum.
I think it could rhyme with 2022, a much milder version, because energy looks so bullish right now for maybe the next four to six months.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
Maybe it could go up to 300, 400K.
I don't know.
It's hard to say in my opinion,
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
the 2030s will have some rhymes with the 70s the 1930s 2000 2010 i don't even know how to say that
decade was the double o's um but those areas so i do think that that's what's that's what's to look
for there so yeah i think that's a pretty astute point. I mean, the Fed raised rates 500 basis points and basically crushed risk asset markets in
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
because we actually haven't had the correct conditions.
We didn't even start to get rate cuts again
until relatively recently, right?
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
I think it's actually retarded to say the Fed's independent.
I think it shows a lack of understanding of how the world actually works.
And basically, you're basically a cuck for the TradFi system telling you that this is
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
hey, we talked to our contacts around the industry. No, they're just like Goldman Sachs bankers
and JP Morgan bankers. And they tell them, hey, the plumbing of the banking system is not looking
too great. Can you help us out? No, it's not to help the American public. It's to
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
So to your point, if we haven't had a crypto cycle,
because we haven't had the right conditions for a crypto bull market,
then everybody has been wrong about what's going to happen and what's going to happen.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
that might start to happen now or soon.
And that actually isn't bad for Bitcoin
because Bitcoin actually posts its largest return
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
I post about it occasionally because it's fun, but like in terms of investing, it's really dumb
to get too sucked into that. But Bitcoin will probably perform best when Ethereum is outperforming
it. And again, that's a statement that'll get you tossed out of Bitcoin rooms, but I don't really
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
I think biotech is finally confirming that.
I think there's a number of other factors like the equal weighted S&P showing a broadening and equity flows beyond just the AI theme.
Those are the types of things you want to see.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
And once the money starts to come out of metals again,
that's when I think you'll really see
a more aggressive move in like Solana, Ethereum, right?
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
those other metals maybe a little bit of copper for like
another six to eight months, kind of that being dominant. And then from there, you'll kind of see
that more transitional phase. And then 2027, 2028, probably 2029 as well, you see crypto being very
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
And I think fear and greed is at like 60 right now, which my guess is it almost feels like
a simulation when you look at it.
And I'm going to go into TA a little bit, 50 weekly moving average, that same place that you rejected from back in 2018, back in 2022. And I would say every
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
could be 1,800 to 2,000 Ethereum.
Great rare opportunity to get in.
Yeah, look, I like a lot of the stuff
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
of bitcoin like the miners and stuff behave very very similarly, where they look dead, look dead, look dead, and they run five or 10x in like a few months. So I don't agree. I get that
it feels bad now. I actually think that's the kind of powder keg setup that you want. You want macro
to align with more liquidity. You want lower rates. You want the ISM PMI over 50. You want to
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
good reason right like not making money in four years will make anyone grumpy um the silver people
didn't make any money for two decades which is why they're so grumpy about anyone shorting them now
um because they didn't make any money for two decades they're finally making money and i'm
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
If you're not hard enough to deal with the way markets make you feel,
you shouldn't be in them.
And what I would say is a lot of people in crypto
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
And that's fine.
Well, it's not that I'm not going to participate. I mean, if I see Bitcoin at new all-time highs, and I see Ethereum at
new all-time highs, and I see all
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
I'm not going to wait until the chart
confirms it or people are going nuts and my neighbor wants to buy a bitcoin and my neighbor
wants to talk about ai data centers and stuff i buy it when nobody wants it right and i buy a lot
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
The fundamentals are already saying
that what you're saying you need the chart to tell you
is going to happen from my perspective.
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
And I did.
I bought into...
Or they never passed the return of Bitcoin they would have gotten
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
up kegers for decades i don't know how old you are maybe you're not 40 but you've been giving up
for 20 years your keger has been reduced because you've been waiting for a chart
to tell you about the first 25 well that's not true a little fact about me because i'm because
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
that story and by the way i think it's great i think people should be aware of where they came
from and what advantages and disadvantages but but I think the important point that you're not going to make, but I'm going to make it for you to help fill in color,
is you wouldn't have been able to hold Google for more than six months because you haven't
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
you know ethereum better than i do you know ethereum better than 99.9 percent of the people in
the world and if it goes to 100 000 you're not going to own any of it you may own some of it
for some of the ride but you would have made more money just buying it at 300 and holding it
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
That's how early I was to being a Google user.
Right.
I was using it in 1998 or 1999 or something.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
Like I'd fall into the,
you know,
the trap of like,
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
they're called defined benefit pensions.
So because the benefit is defined not the
contribution the managers of those funds put it all into fucking bonds so these pensions
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
Smirnoff, Johnny Walker, Captain Morgan.
Guinness is one of the best brands in the world. I like stuff like that, and I
think more English people should be investing in
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
google i don't think it matters whether google is materially different than ethereum or bitcoin
or any other company i think mindset and approach is is more important than the asset and your
mindset and approach historically has been to use charts to trade um and you're very particular
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
world doesn't understand, the bigger the reward. The more you get behind consensus things, the more your returns
look average, right? So like consensus right now is own the S&P, right? And get whatever you get,
10%, 12%. I mean, we've had more than that the last few years. With mean reversion, it's likely
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
And that's just like the math, especially when you consider the compound math and you consider taxes and fees and things like that there's just nobody who's perfect
well that well that's that's not actually true for crypto right excluding bitcoin you know most
people who've who've like applied a sort of investor mindset to crypto have just gotten
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
only own bitcoin and then the sprinkling of ethereum because
as a as an investor it's the only asset that like if my mom says hey i want some exposure to crypto
it's the only thing i could put her into where i don't have to check in with her every year
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
And I think Ethereum is the closest thing in terms of sustainability and utility.
And I might be wrong, but it's worth a flyer if for periods of time it significantly outperforms Bitcoin.
Mike, one thing to add on Ethereum, because this has been a change for me and this's been a good conversation. Nakamoto, one thing I will say is I have this, you know, this core belief that to be a trader, you have to be the top 1% to actually make money over time.
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
shows that um that most of the major moves that occur happen in a very short period and so actually
predicting when a drawdown is going to end
and there's going to be a fast, rapid rise
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
All those people are sitting on the sidelines
when actually there's a ton of people.
Yeah, but I don't miss them.
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
it that is interesting. And I've been a little bit careful about it because I've been pretty
much a Bitcoin maxi on the crypto side. But I did enter, I think it's a very good opportunity
with Ethereum, largely because I started doing a little bit of research on where most of the Ethereum activity is actually occurring.
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
It runs on Polygon.
Which is built on Ethereum, right?
Polygon isn't built on Ethereum.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
It's not.
It is not.
Polygon is not an L2.
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
that sounds like an IQ
problem. And that's okay. Not everybody gets to have an high IQ, but you don't need to act on it.
So sorry for your buddy, but that's just retarded. And so what I was going to say is that when you
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
because the blockchain activity actually is super useful
for being able to track activity at scale using smart contracts.
And so that has been the key approach.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
I think it's technically a sidechain, but it is designed
to scale Ethereum.
It's a sidechain. Okay.
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
When you actually look at Ethereum on-chain activity right now,
a significant portion of it is being driven by these prediction markets.
And it's been quite interesting.
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
how do I touch ETH? What would be really good and helpful
is if you actually went to Polymarket's own website,
and when it's asked
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
is based on the fact that they are becoming
the picks and shovels for some of these production markets.
The picks and shovels by definition means...
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
on stupid conversations?
If you think Ethereum is powering polygon can you
explain to me technically how that works i don't need to this is an investment thesis okay so again
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
And it's like, there's no reason to do that.
So is your thesis basically that Polygon has a marketing statement about being associated with Ethereum on its website?
And because of that, if there's more activity on poly
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
But the transaction off the main Ethereum chain are being used.
The reason why they're using Polygon is because they're trying to stay
off the main Ethereum chain so that they can get speed and savings
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
So hold on, hold on.
Let me finish now, right?
Like you asked for an answer.
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
It's a sidechain, but, you know, it's marketed as L2.
And they become a real L2, settling to Ethereum, right?
So they have, like, you know, you have that protection, right?
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
I think there are going to be a thousand polymarkets.
Okay, so suppose there's a lot of prediction markets that set up their own L2s and they settle to Ethereum.
to ethereum so they're using ethereum block space but the problem is and blob space right so the
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
This is like just a very big, why, why, why, how is that going to happen?
How is that going to happen?
If, if, if when you have activity on these LPs, it doesn't actually pay any money for
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
I'm asking a very, very basic question.
I'm actually like,
you've already been wrong about like five different things.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
has plans to scale a whole lot more so there's even more supply, right? Fees are going down and down and down,
lower and lower and lower because there's a glut, there's an oversupply of block space.
So like these, these LQs are not actually driving value to Ethereum at the moment. So
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
In fact, we currently know that prediction markets are having a significant impact on decision making.
Like there are people that are using prediction markets to build oracles to understand what is going to happen on geopolit making. There are people that are using prediction markets to build oracles to understand
what is going to happen on geopolitics.
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
It's sucking the air out of the room.
Yeah, I mean, I'm not disagreeing with that. I'm actually bullish on prediction markets as well. What I'm bearish on very obvious that that's already happening it's sucking the air out of the room yeah i mean i'm
not i'm not disagreeing with that i'm actually bullish on prediction markets as well what i'm
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
So you're seeing Uber just launch the black cab and you're like,
how is this going to replace the taxi world?
And you're, I'm like sitting here, I'm saying, dude, it doesn't matter.
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
If you can't even admit that, then it's like, okay, well, I'm just talking to somebody who has like a-
But why is that going to be bullish for Ethereum?
Because it's going to increase transaction activity on Ethereum.
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
Blob space is also going to go up, right?
Like the amount of blob space and block space on Ethereum is going to increase a lot.
And my point is that prediction markets are going to scale so fast, so vastly, that any increase will be outstripped by 10x by the activity on prediction markets.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
That's all they're going to be doing all the time.
And so if that's where we end up, I think there is a significant increase in demand
no matter what Vitalik does.
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
Exactly.
We're seeing a lot of this.
It's all converging.
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
And they can say, Hey guys, we've got this really successful prediction market
that everyone's using.
And we just launched a token and then they get everyone to buy their token and they
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
is actually bullish for crypto, just not for Ethereum. It's bullish for the token that Poly
Market is probably going to launch and dump.
And the best way to play on that thesis is to fish for the airdrop by going and using Polymarket.
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
But I mean, I, I think like there are other, there are other theses for why
the ETH token could do well, right?
This does not seem like a good thesis to me.
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
I mean, he didn't convince me.
I mean, you may have got that, but it is worse.
Well, I was convinced by your bullish arguments on Ethereum an hour ago to add more to my position.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
And like, you know, if Polygon abandons, if Polymarket abandons Polygon, then that's probably going to fuck that trade over. So I guess like one thing you could say about Ethereum is basically, it's kind of like the IBM of the crypto world.
Nobody ever got fired for buying IBM, right?
Um, you know, it's probably not going to be a complete disaster probably.
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
And I think it's there is kind of like in this position, like that's my honest,
dead honest position on Ethereum.
And that's why I haven't bought any, because like the upside of that is not great.
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
Like Ethereum is very liquid, right?
Uh, whereas, you know, minus shit coins might not be so liquid.
So, you know, there is that consideration.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
12 years. I'm an OG. I've been in crypto for a long time, and crypto brought me into the stock
market. And one of the things that makes me successful, I like to think, is my self-awareness.
And, you know, I'm just hearing a bunch of bottom signals, right?
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
I'm an investor, right?
I'm allocating capital, right?
This is money moving, right?
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
well at least on the Bitcoin side, have capital, right?
They've made good decisions throughout their entire years of being an investor or doing something great in business, right?
So a lot of these shit corners that come on these spaces, they can't appreciate that.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
We're thinking about 100x, right?
And a percent or two doesn't sound sexy for someone that has $1,000.
or two doesn't sound sexy for someone that has $1,000, but if you have $10 million, $20 million,
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
You don't need to listen to Mike Alfred.
You need to get a job,
save some money,
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
you know okay cool like you you didn't get to where you are today by getting a job and
having a job i was uh one of the highest paid people outside of my college graduating class.
I was in the top 1% income earners at a college.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
not a technology conversation.
There's hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars
allocated to Ethereum today because that capital believes it's a multi-trillion dollar idea.
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
stack more bitcoin i think that is the game of capitalism if you're a bitcoin capitalist
uh you know you're doing a great job uh but i i think this is not a technology
argument right and i've been in the space for 30 minutes laughing my ass off
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
uh get a job in stack sats right for for the millionaires i mean you know no no offense but
i think that is objectively terrible advice right Like telling somebody who has thousand dollars to invest or even 10,000 to like, you know, get a job and stack sats when Bitcoin is already up 800%.
That's terrible.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
Right, right, right.
I appreciate you giving me the opportunity to share my survivorship bias.
I've made money.
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
to DCA bitcoin after it's
gone through an 800 bull market right yeah so that's that's the thing with capital capital
right like uh it doesn't matter if it's if it's uh if it's a great idea if it's a digital monopoly
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
You could even be, I think it's $2,000 a month puts you in the top 1% of actual investors.
So even $1,000 a month.
And I mean, I think the argument where
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
your ten thousand dollars your fifteen thousand dollars into you know into bitcoin at this point
i would say you know obviously like let's be real
obviously i would say 23 you shouldn't put all of your money into one thing unless you 100 percent
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
And I'm planning on taking profits on some of that, hopefully in 6 to 12 months, converting that more over into, you know, Bitcoin, some Ethereum as well, and running that up to, you know, hopefully we can get Bitcoin at 60K, 50K, running that up to 200K,
you know, hopefully by the end of the decade, a couple of years, that's a 4X. Now, if you're
somebody who's only putting away, let's say 12K a year, you know, you could get up to 100 grand
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
like look you know if somebody's got a relatively modest amount to invest right and the reason i'm
saying this is a because i have a relatively modest amount to invest like i could invest
like say about 50k total right now i'm holding most of it back um but like a lot of people will
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
into bitcoin a bit into eth like you know is that really the best we can do here at ct let me just
i'm just curious if you guys have looked into this for ultra wealthy people i believe it's a net worth
around 15 million or more if you had to guess what average makeup their net worth is made up of what would you guys think
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
ten thousand dollars i see so many opportunities. I have $10,000 a year or $10,000?
Over a weekend.
If you told me
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
or over a week?
Well, I'll pay somebody about three different projects,
10 grand, just to come here on the weekend
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
I am that desperate.
Yeah, well, that's what people should be doing.
They should be hustling and looking for funds to invest.
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
you guys are doing this all wrong.
I don't make $50 fucking bets.
Cause I don't give a fuck if I lose them.
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
I take it very,
very differently.
So, like, I would absolutely get a job, get on a fucking plane, get the 10 grand, and you'll work your ass off, and you'll have some cash, too.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
I don't need to make this bet.
The gentleman said the most important thing I have heard in so long about Bitcoin.
We're here to tear the whole fucking system down, dude.
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
deserve to make 90 grand on your 10 000 bitcoin it's awesome you were so early you were fucking
blinded by by you know a religious kind of uh theory it's cool it's awesome but you don't take
it to the next stage that does not take it to the next stage. That does not take it to the next stage.
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
and a victim fucking get up get the fuck out of that country they're gonna fucking imprison you
dude they won't even let me go there so fuck get out safe, get your family safe, and go produce something, man.
It's the right solution, guys.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
And how do I also add 500 fucking Bitcoin? See, I want to add 500 Bitcoin. While you guys are fucking around with one saying I have an advantage. No, dude, I want to buy 500 more below 100 grand.
I think it's the fucking trade of a lifetime. It does not require me to ever look at a chart.
a lifetime that does not require me to ever look at a chart. I could literally go away
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
a lot of the times is either with a hedge fund or it's in bonds that last third i never knew this
found it very interesting and generally what they do every time there's a crash they're obviously
their equities go down obviously their real estate generally goes down a lot of times and what they
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
think a month or two ago and it was exactly that one-third was a hedge fund one-third was equities
like an old guy right like my lawyer who's a thousand years old he'll have a 50 bond portfolio
and he will not have looked at it he knows my whole bitcoin story but he just cannot get it
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
And most of them, their wealth was made from a highly, highly concentrated position.
Most of the money that's earned, the greatest amount of money that's in the system is earned
from entrepreneurs, people building businesses and making billions of dollars.
The discussion around the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs indicates a strong bullish sentiment among market participants.
i do have to attend something right now which i'd have to put my full focus on but i want to thank
all the speakers once again gary evan naka uh mike alfred uh prometheus um i think yeah his name is btc ai mining stock guy whatever his name is
he's changed his handle a few times so uh pardon me brother if you're still listening or on the
The emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns highlights a bullish sentiment towards crypto investments.
And the show that you're listening to right now here on X Spaces is called Market Talk.
I'm the host, Wabi.
I've been doing this for just over three years now.
The anticipation of Bitcoin flipping bullish above $100K suggests a strong belief in the asset's potential for significant price appreciation.
Friday, usually at 3.30 p.m.m est and the show typically goes on for
about an hour and a half two hours uh but when we do get these large panels uh the show usually
ends up pushing four five maybe even seven or eight hours um does happen quite frequently and
The discussion emphasizes the importance of consistency in trading and the potential for significant returns in the crypto market, highlighting a bullish outlook.
to start being more active on there now that markets are uh flowing in with volatility and
also some liquidity we uh talked about broader entity markets like the nakey but we also talked
about uh crypto we talked about all coins on chain stuff. We talked lower time frame higher time frame price action
The speaker's focus on being well-informed about altcoins and crypto-specific topics indicates a proactive approach to capitalizing on market opportunities.
account a follow and feel free to tell a friend to tell a friend about who we are. We also have
a TA show. That's our youtube show called
market check that centers on all things charts graphs all that stuff uh very very much so we do
