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Market Talk- MASSIVE PUMP INCOMING FOR CRYPTO!? STOCKS NEAR ATH!?
Recorded: June 25, 2025 Duration: 1:09:31Space Recording
Short Summary
Crypto markets are buzzing with optimism as the QQQ hits a new all-time high, signaling strong growth potential. Bitcoin is poised for a breakout, with discussions around SLR exemptions and Fed policies indicating a favorable environment for both crypto and traditional assets. Investors are encouraged to position themselves ahead of upcoming market movements.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. you Oh, my God. Life is in control
Keep that force together And the world
When you want to turn and rest up
To be in the world
I'm so tired
Strong
I'm waiting to give the best time to try
Music may be in the same time, no feeling anymore Oh The fear is rising Why?
Why?
Why?
Why?
Why?
Why?
Why?
Why?
Why?
Why?
Why?
Why?
Why?
Why?
Why?
Why?
Why?
Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Why? Thank you. so Oh I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry. I'm sorry.2分間に入っています。
2分間に入っています。
2分間に入っています。
2分間に入っています。 so
so Music and that song gets me fired up all the time i tell you what rocky 4 is one of the greatest films
ever produced that song that's called hearts on fire by the way guys if you've ever seen rocky
4 you'll know that song like the back of your hand
man that's when uh rocky and drago start training and it's a pretty intense scene man and uh that
last minute that you guys heard the instrumental part that's when uh rocky's climbing up uh a huge
snowy mountain and right now that's the equity market man the qqq is officially in price discovery hood hit a new
all-time high coin stock hit an all-time high uh circle is offering a dip man i think that's a dip
worth buying to be honest and you know these three companies i think um they're gonna make a huge
impact over the next few years i said i said this in the uh afternoon call with our Discord group, but I called some of these companies like Hood, like Circle, like Coinbase even, the future Mag7.
So the Mag7 is Google, Microsoft, you know, those companies, right?
Or you can even call it the Fanksocks, right?
Netflix, all that good stuff. And I think where those stocks were about 15 years ago, I think
Netflix, all that good stuff.
that's exactly where these companies are right now. And over the last 15 years, the MAG7 has
pulled off 10x as 1,000 plus percent gains. And when you look at the equity market day to day,
it might not seem like it moves much, but you take a look
at stocks like hood over the last 18 months, they're up like 10x.
So they do numbers, but over time, especially other stuff like micro strategy, but micro
strategy is a different beast compared to things like hood.
I actually think revenue has a bit more longevity, but talking about crypto and specifically bitcoin trading uh near
108k really looks like it wants to break into price discovery and when we look at uh the s p
500 i mean s p 500 opened up at fresh local highs above 6100 essentially 20 points away from
reclaiming its previous all-time high from earlier this year in
February before we melted down. And talking about melts, I remember back when the equity market
opened up at 4,800 on a Monday. I remember coining the phrase melt-up, how the equity markets were
going to melt up. And at at the time people were like man
Why are you crazy? What do you mean the equity markets gonna melt up? Well, exactly?
What what I said a melt up which is an aggressive v reversal of the reversal patterns
You take a look at the S&P on the daily. It looks like a shit coin
It was straight down and now it's
straight up and it's just absolutely it's been absolutely relentless so we're talking about a
1200 point v reversal on the s p we discussed this yesterday and you would think that just by looking
at the s p 500 it was the coveted fractal that's exactly what it's doing. And you might be looking
at altcoins and thinking, man, when are alts going to move? When are alts going to move?
Alts are probably not going to move until quantitative tightening actually stops.
And until that happens, we're probably just going to continue to see this regime where it's just
consistent rotation and only a few names outperformed during a certain time period.
But I do believe we are nearing the end.
We are nearing the end.
Powell only has a couple of months left on his term.
I think there was a Fed meeting today.
I certainly did not catch it at all.
I've really just been paying attention to asset prices, seeing what's keeping on par
with Bitcoin, outperforming it from the lows,
names that are strong amidst all this headline turmoil, and just trying to get a gauge on the
market, not so much talking heads, unless it's Bessette. But I do believe, I'm sorry if I mess
this up, Donnie, but Fannie Mae, Freddie and Fannie Mae, they're real estate.
They're like the largest real estate broker or something like that.
I really don't know, but they're a huge entity in the real estate market.
And they have trillions at their disposal.
I think they're a bill where people are now able to mortgage their house and have
shitcoins as collateral, which is honestly insane.
So you combine that with Fed policy at some point, just flat out stopping quantitative
tightening and rate cuts coming later on this year.
The action that you guys are seeing that I'm seeing in the equity
markets, that will translate over to the crypto market. And we did see somewhat of a lag last
summer when the equity markets were melting up. And in the crypto market, we were lagging outside
of a few names. And that's exactly what we're seeing right now. But as we saw later on in the
year, that outperformance that stocks
like nvidia had in some other select names and the stock market had compared to crypto in quarter
four and late quarter three we saw crypto catch up in the snap of the finger so patience pays and
when others btc actually bottoms out it is going to be massive ladies and gentlemen it is going to be massive for all of you
listening right now you are all in for a treat for today's stream i want to welcome you all back
i hope you're all doing well welcome back to market talk brought to you by because bitcoin
i'm your host wabi i'm here joined I'm here joined by Matt, here joined by Donnie, here joined by Chill. I posted something up on the Nest, ladies and gentlemen. I posted the
Others BTC chart on the weekly. And altcoins as a whole have mostly been in a downtrend
over the last four years. And you have to ask yourself, okay, what are some of the triggers
that we can look at in order to gauge when
momentum can shift?
Now, we have to look at Fed policy.
So when Fed policy changes, the least path of resistance at that point is going to be
the upside.
We are now in an environment where people are now starting to catch up to the other's
BTC chart, and it's starting to get a lot of mindshare.
And Bitcoin dominance is very close to reaching that level that it reached back in 2017 and back in 2021, where it peaked out and started going into a downtrend. Now, me personally, I'm not
expecting BTC dominance to just melt down, but I am anticipating somewhat of a hefty pullback.
Things don't go up forever, right?
And if we're going into an environment where companies are now shifting towards adding
risk assets onto their balance sheet, like altcoins, getting a lot of debt to acquire
more Bitcoin, we could assume, we could be confident that at the very least, we could assume we could be confident that at the very least we could see an echo bubble of
previous risk on seasons or all season whatever you want to call it that we saw in previous cycles
it might not be as big but at least we could have an echo bubble and we saw that back in quarter four
of 2023 so i'm sure you guys remember that time period anything and everything was pumping whether
you were holding memes whether you were holding d, whether you were holding DeFi, whether you were holding dino tokens.
Everyone prospered from September of 2023 all the way to February of 2024.
It was probably the cleanest rally that we've had across multiple sectors so far this cycle.
But either way, guys, feel free to check out the chart up above but uh we're gonna
go ahead and get the show started but before i do that ladies and gentlemen if y'all can go ahead
and show some love to the space you guys always do a great job but for those of you that don't
know the best way to show some love to the space is by clicking the spaces tab so you just open up your x app right below you'll
see the spaces tab and then right when you open that guys you'll see a little link right above
our profile pictures that says x.com slash i slash spaces go ahead and smash up that like button if
you are bullish smash up that like button if you're grateful to be alive smash up that like
button if you love markets smash up that like button and if you love our streams hit up that repost button hit up that retweet button
guys that'd be much appreciative helps get more eyes and ears to the show helps bring us more
towards the algorithm helps please our tech overlords and as i said earlier we'd all be very
much appreciative myself and the rest of the team members at bb that um
hopefully hopefully tucker who's listening to this anonymously uh can pop in man um you guys
should check out our youtube channel uh big country tuck he made a video called called uh
tucked in it's a new series called tucked ined In every Wednesday. Louis also made a video on
Tuesday. It's going to be called Louis Tuesdays. So a lot of us are going to be making some YouTube
videos over on our YouTube. It's part of an expansion. So feel free to check that out. But
nonetheless, guys, we're going to go ahead and get the show started for the day. So for the next 45
minutes, an hour, we're going to go ahead and talk all things prices, narratives, and my favorite,
dubious speculation. So space is a recorded jaw. So as always, man, I'm going to go ahead and pass
it over to Donnie. Donnie, what's going on, man? This is the moment that we've been talking about.
It seems like for a while now, but it's only been a couple of weeks. But you know, the QQQ
made an all time high. The S&P is on the
verge of going into price discovery. We had the largest daily close ever for the QQQ.
And Bitcoin truly seems like, at the very least, it could make a marginal high before the end of
the week at, say, $114,000, $115,000. But that's uh quite the story with these spaces man but how are you man thanks
thanks for coming on up brother what's going on hey bro yeah i'm doing good man lots of uh positive
updates for the market today which is nice to see you're seeing a bunch of uh important bills and
things be talked about uh the main thing that i saw today well there was actually two right was
the federal reserve actually did end up speaking about the SLR exemptions.
You know, we've actually highlighted this since around April 8th, which was the bottom
of BTC around 75k, to where, you know, the bond market had that stressful moment.
They started, you know, showing their alertness to the issue, and they started mentioning
things like this,
exempting banks from these policies.
So yeah, basically, Jerome Powell is backing the idea of getting these SLR exemptions through.
But on one hand, they're doing QT, quote unquote,
basically putting up a front of them being
disciplined, you know, with all this kind of stuff and then opening a back door for
credit creation, you know, via the banking system through this kind of stuff.
Now, I was seeing someone else's math around how much potential QE this can tap into because
it is actual, you know, easing, right?
You're literally having these banks step up and buy treasuries, which
helps at least cap or lower bond yields, which is
going to make access to credit cheaper, essentially.
Literally QE. So on one hand, they're
talking about still maintaining their quantitative tightening regime
and then they're backing this
idea it's just i think people are putting way too much focus on like blatant fed easing right with
cuts and what we've seen before with direct quantitative easing but they're playing a much
sneakier game as we can see right now this is extremely bullish uh if if it really does it
should it should at least tap around 500 billion um of credit creation but if this does unlock
somewhere around 1 trillion i need to run the run the numbers and see what other people are posting
because i don't really um know too well how much exactly it'll be. But this is huge. The first bill that was signed for COVID in the last
cycle, signed by Donald Trump, was around $3 trillion. So if this taps into $1 trillion,
what a great start to essentially the debt refinancing cycle, right? Starting now,
the expansionary phase is starting now. They're wanting to sign the one big beautiful bill now.
So again, it's hard to realize that when you look at Bitcoin and you look at stocks pretty much at all time highs and you're expecting further upside from here.
But this is the reality and it's confirming itself.
So I'm super stoked to see this.
They got it over the line basically when they said they would.
Right. So this is why we need to actually pay attention
to what these policymakers are saying
and take them for their word, right?
Scott Besson had mentioned this again, April 8th.
He said they're going to pass them in summer.
We're in the summer months
and these things are getting over the line.
So yeah, crazy to see that.
All the charts are looking super strong.
BTC right now, it's got this crazy liquidity trail
all the way from like 104 to 107, right?
To the downside.
I'm actually pretty surprised
you haven't swept all of that yet.
I don't know if you will.
You don't have to because of the broader setup
just being extremely bullish.
But if you do start triggering the next series of highs,
which is basically 109, 110, 111, and 112,
I don't see how you stop there, right?
These are very massive, highly liquid areas
that we've left behind on purpose
throughout this entire range
since we came down from 112
for a squeeze to new all-time highs.
We've taken all the downside liquidity.
We had the shakeout. Ret retail selling from World War III fear.
And clearly somebody was filling buys right below 100k, right? And you get the massive buyback all the way to 108k pretty much. You can't ignore that signal of what just happened. Literally,
signal of what just happened. Literally, someone filled a huge order down at that 98k zone. So
again, we called the drop before it happened and the buyback. And it's just crazy to now see
the important macro levers start confirming themselves like these SLR exemptions. So
happy to see it. I think, again, the timeline for this cycle to me is around 6 to 18 months.
You're just going to continuously get more incremental confirmations as this all goes.
It won't be just like COVID, how you had 3 trillion, sign it here, wait another 6 months, sign another 3 trillion.
It won't be as direct and sharp and aggressive.
But you're going to have incremental confirmations of basically
things that are going to confirm themselves for everything to last longer.
Or, you know, without covering absolutely everything we've covered in every space.
But yeah, it's just looking good.
I think as soon as BTC does break 112, I don't think it stops there.
I think it goes straight to 120 and up. I really
want a weekly close above 120 to confirm that we're actually leaving this range for good
and likely headed to the higher numbers that are significantly higher from here.
So if we get that, I think that's where that others BTC chart starts to flip very aggressively.
You're seeing BTC just slowly grind
higher here while well altcoins do nothing but I think when you get the big obvious breakout as
people are still unsure of where the current direction is for BTC they're still thinking
you get the pullback maybe to 102.5 whatever once you have the convincing break, I think it's going to be very hard to resist bidding
basically the entire
market.
It's looking good to me, man.
Yeah, dominance broke out of
a multi-month range I saw.
I think that's why it called.
It still hasn't broken the range
Didn't we hit a new high
for dominance?
That's not a range break
It's just a deviation
So it's still intact
It could still capitulate
to the downside as long as it stays
kind of below 67%
If it starts
closing above that then yeah you're probably headed higher
towards like 68 70 we'll see what happens there matt what are your thoughts man on this price
action that we're seeing yeah uh thanks for having me up um i think one thing's clear
I think one thing's clear. It's not official yet. S&P 500 is still maybe a little half percent away from a new all-time high and breakout to Donnie's point. But we're so close. We are right there. Let me look at it. We're only talking about the last 0.6% of a move. So that tells you everything.
So my biggest takeaway is this massive tariff correction,
liberation day event from the winter into the spring.
This massive recovery was faster than COVID.
It's faster than 2020s.
That recovery was, call it, about 180 days, three months.
This one's more like two months, give or take, you know, talking about like 130 days.
talking about like 130 days.
So, I mean, if you didn't buy the very bottom,
if you weren't stacking whatever your favorite assets were
in the last three months,
like, I'm sorry, you missed the best buying opportunity of 2025.
Now at this point, like, okay, well, we can't go back to February.
We can't go back to March and April.
That's in the rearview mirror.
Congrats to those who've got Bitcoin below 80K and all the rest.
But from here on out, I'm with Donnie.
Now we play the breakout.
S&P 500 wants to break out.
NASDAQ wants to break out.
Bitcoin wants to break out.
Everything wants to break out.
Look at what happened with gold when it broke out.
It went on 100% percent run in a hundred days and that's when we're talking about the biggest asset class on the
planet it's that it's over 20 trillion dollars as we speak right now when the breakout happens
for whatever you're looking at maybe it's apple maybe it's amazon maybe it's google maybe it's
bitcoin maybe it's whatever uh Hold on to your butts.
It's not going to just go from 112 to 120 and then that's that.
You know, I keep my expectations pretty conservative.
I'm usually on the low end for a lot of people.
And I've been saying for a long time, I see 150 in fall 2025.
150 and higher, that is.
And, you know, you would have gotten laughed out of the spaces trying to give this price target back in March, April.
Now, you know, it looks really good.
We have the back half of the year, nothing but bullishness all around.
The Bears could not be more wrong.
Again, that recovery was faster than 2020 COVID.
That's impressive.
Do you remember when I went on that basis with Tina and I said that this was the bottom?
We're going to melt up and he started screaming at me.
I mean, there is something about like,
you know, you can say Tina,
that you can, there's a lot of other familiar faces
and names, but they only ever show up in the bottom.
You know, even that they're on,
the sole fact that they're on spaces
and you're talking to them once again after it's been another year, that only happens at a local bottom.
So, yeah, you could use anecdotal evidence.
You could point to different TA on all sorts of different charts.
You could point to earnings, you could point to labor market,
but it was screaming over and over that you just had to bite the bullet and buy in the first half
of this year. And now sit on your hands and enjoy the ride up for the back half of this year.
Next week, this week's pretty much over. Next week, we get the all-important labor market
reports again. We're going to see how many jobs. We're going to see both private payrolls. We're
going to see government numbers. Tomorrow, we're going to see another initial claims.
So we'll have plenty to chew on, but the first half of this year, data is in.
It's in the rearview mirror, and it was all good stuff.
I don't see anything that stands in our way.
This has so much more room to run.
Yeah, I'm eyeing like 6,500 on the SPY before the summer's over.
And I think most of the move comes by the first week of August is what I'm thinking.
Like when the S&P breaks out, it does not stop.
It goes on like a 5% to 8% gap up.
So it's going to be something.
So did anyone catch the Fed meeting today? What did they say? What happened outside of that bill that was passed that people are going
to be able to use ShareCoins as collateral?
Oh, well, I guess that's a different conversation. The big takeaway was J pal and the fed are uh confident in the economy
uh see the labor market is resilient uh but they're not um but they don't have blinders on
to if they need to step in and uh uh provide cuts uh based on data in the back after this year so
it's a little it was everything the bulls wanted to hear.
The bulls wanted reassurance that like this economy is strong.
The bulls wanted a reason to long their longs.
And the bulls also want to hear that the Fed, you know,
if there's softening in the labor market,
that the Fed isn't going to sit on their hands and they'll start
and they'll give a couple more cuts.
So yeah, there was just nothing for the bears to chew on.
And I think that's why you saw, like you said, new all-time high for the Qs.
S&P 500 is literally 0.6% away from its new all-time high.
6% away from its new all-time high.
Every single asset class has completely retraced all of the winter and spring drawdown.
Gold, you know, excuse me, not gold, but oil is all the way back into the 60s.
Like, yeah, across the board, across the board.
When do you think Powell's going to cut, man?
He's basically
jawboning at this point,
kind of like he did
during the first half of
24, where he started
implying cuts are coming,
cuts are coming, and he was
a bit
too late on that, bro.
Too late, Powell. I think he was so i don't think he'll
cut until you actually see a cpi reading below two percent and i don't and i you know honestly like
we can say oh he was wrong there or the fed was slow here or there and we can with the benefit of 2020 hindsight um
we can absolutely point out all the mistakes of 2021 and 2022 and etc but right here right now i
don't i think he's doing the right thing honestly uh their mandate is to get cpi inflation at 2% or as close to it as possible. It's still at 2.4%. So, you know,
let's actually see, I would love to see a reading of 2.0 or 2.1 or 1.9, but we're not
there yet. So I don't really see any reason to cut, you know, because the problem is the worst case scenario is if you say close enough 2.4% CPI close enough and we start and we start to cut.
And then what if a month later is 2.6%?
And then what if five months later, six months later, it starts flirting with 3%?
Like you're so close to your goal of 2%, but you're not there yet.
So just leave Fed funds rates where they are.
And I don't remember if I was listening to CNBC or Bloomberg in the background,
but someone made a great point, one of those channels,
someone made the great point of like, it's not on the J-PAL and the Fed to give the
best possible borrowing rate for the treasury to roll the US debt and all that. Honestly,
that's the secretary of treasury's problem. That's the executive branch's problem. The Fed
has a very specific job. J-PAL has a very specific job. It's 2% inflation and a strong labor market. That's it. If not, let's do the
Secretary of Treasury a solid and help them roll debt as cheaply as possible. It's not like
as cheaply as possible.
It's not like
trying to work with the
Trump administration on some sort of
tariff agenda. That's all
not their job.
Yeah, but I think that's the problem.
They're clashing heads with
the people who are wanting
to run a specific playbook.
They're wanting to do this growth pro-market
regime,
which is highly inflationary.
So how are they going to get to 2%?
It's just not realistic whatsoever.
So if you're going to clash that hard with the Treasury,
then you're effectively never going to cut, right?
I don't think it's realistic in the environment that the Treasury is trying to provide
or what they're trying to bring with the things
that they campaigned for and what they're doing now.
So I think it is dumb from the Fed not actually cutting at this point.
So I don't know.
We'll see.
Obviously, there's a narrative being built around cuts now.
And potentially, there could be some sort of front running of the new Fed chair whenever
they confirm that for 2026.
But yeah, I don't think what Powell is doing
is correct in my opinion.
Yeah, but why though?
I mean...
Are you in the close enough camp?
Like 2.4% CPI close enough?
They don't have to go to 2% is the thing.
But also I saw people running numbers
of how realistic it actually is to even get to 2%.
And it's very unrealistic.
In fact, they should...
I'm sorry, I interrupted you.
Sorry?
What were you saying?
Sorry, I interrupted you.
Yeah, I was just saying they're clearly trying to push a pro-growth, pro-market agenda, right?
So that's going to be inflationary by default. So if they're clashing heads like that, they're clearly trying to push like a pro-growth, pro-market agenda, right? So that's going to be inflationary by default.
So if they're clashing heads like that, they're never going,
first of all, he's never going to be able to get to 2%, right?
The only reason we were even going down like that is because, you know,
the market was literally tanking as Trump was kind of running that initial
playbook of the detox period, right?
So now that that's flipped,
it's basically impossible to get inflation down to those levels, right? So now that that's flipped, it's basically impossible to get inflation down to
those levels, right? So I don't know, it just feels like they're clashing heads for no reason,
which, again, it pivots back to them just being very political in not wanting to go ahead and
kind of assist them in their plans, essentially.
assist them in their plans, essentially.
Boy, I don't know.
I mean, look at US inflation rate for the five years before 2021.
You had the other problem.
Inflation had so much trouble getting up anywhere near 2%.
A lot of the times it was 0.5%, 1%, 1.4%, yeah, 0.7%. You had the opposite
problem before 2021 where the U.S. would flirt with periods of, oh my gosh, are we going
to fall into deflation? I don't know how it could be...
I don't know how it's impossible
to get back to 2%.
That's totally doable.
I think the key thing there is that
that's before the COVID cycle, right?
So there's been a lot of credit creation since then,
which is why it's much more difficult now.
They've literally been running QT or whatever for like three years.
I think that's the, but why, but why, but why is that?
It's because after COVID we injected, we injected a massive amount of, what, $7 trillion out of basically thin air in a two-year period.
And we're never looking back.
We're not ever going back.
Like, you're right.
I don't think you can.
Unless they're going to go through that detox period, which they initially had mentioned, I don't think you can, unless they're going to go through that detox period, which they
initially had mentioned.
I don't think you can go back.
You either expand or you go through that route, and they're clearly not wanting to go through
that route.
So now if the Fed doesn't accommodate the other route, it's just going to be a clash
of heads.
It's super annoying, and it's kind of, I don't know, I think they have to communicate on
this particular time.
Well, here's the other danger though. Just because the Fed cuts rates, that doesn't mean
that bonds will sell at those rates. We all know that the US is looking at a $2 trillion deficit
this year. The US is projected to spend $2 trillion more than we're going to take in this year.
And that number is only going up. So next year, it'll be 2.1 trillion or 2.2 trillion. And
a couple of years from now, it'll be 3 and 4 trillion overspending. So we still have to pay
those bills. It's not like everyone's not going to still get their checks. So they're just going to print money and monetize more debt.
Now, the problem with this is like the Fed and J-PAL, the problem they're looking at is they can cut federal funds rates.
But if the world sees that, yeah, no, you guys are way overspending, and I'm sorry, but we're not going to hold your treasuries for a measly 2% or 3% or 3.5% rate, the bonds will still sell at 3.8%, 4.1%, 4.5%.
The Fed can cut, but it won't do it any good.
The Fed can cut, but it won't do it any good.
That's why they're exempting the banks, for example,
with the SLR exemptions.
They're creating pockets of credit creation in the backdoor,
and they're going to continue doing that.
They're explicitly telling you what those tools are
to essentially come in with artificial demand, like you're saying,
because you're going to need artificial demand,
which, again, this is another very highly inflationary setup.
So long BTC, I guess.
But again, this whole 2% inflation goal,
I think it's just in the environment that they're wanting to push,
it's just unrealistic.
But yeah, that's kind of my thoughts on that.
I won't comment on it anymore.
That's fair.
Yeah, I mean, we'll see.
J-Pow, I mean, he's in the Fed.
They're between a rock and a hard place.
You're right.
The administration has their own goals,
and they want to be super pro-growth,
and that's not in the the fed board's mandate that's not that's not in their
job description of getting appointed and approved like being super pro-growth us is that's that's
not in their mandate but wow oh well yeah it is weird though because again with these slr exemptions
right on one hand they're saying they're doing QT.
And on the other hand, Jerome Powell says he's forepassing this,
which, again, is just another form of QE, just not directly.
So it is interesting.
They have, like, mixed signals that they're giving.
So it's just weird for them to then not go with, like,
on one hand, they're doing this, right, and then they're saying they don't want to cut which is just clashing heads with uh the treasury so it's
yeah it's very weird but i think ultimately it's just going to lead to it actually playing out for
the trump admin they will get around everything
to me this it all just sets up for a bitcoin blow off top in the back half of this year.
Just so many different things.
Everything that we've been talking about, everything that you've been listening there, Donnie,
it says sugar high to me.
It's pumping growth at all costs.
It's who cares as long as the nominal value of the assets is going up, not down.
It's, you know, warning signs be damned.
You know, we want this market, we want all asset class.
We want this market going up, going into 2026 in midterms.
Yeah.
For a lot of different reasons.
I'm still in the camp that I think Bitcoin has its blow off top and the back half of
2025, especially with Bitcoin treasury companies, a dime a dozen coming out of the woodwork.
What do you also think about the length of time for, you know, quote unquote, this cycle
with all of this stuff unfolding?
To me, it's such a low probability for there to actually be a cycle top in 2025.
Maybe I'm wrong, but we'll see. I'm thinking it goes into 2026.
Well, I mean, I'm not, now we're getting into the whole cycle theory thing. I always subscribe to the camp that it's really just because Bitcoin cycles are mirroring the presidential cycles.
administration's, let's just call it, bad ideas to ripple out across the economy and to take full
effect. Not any one administration. Obama administration back in 2012, 2013, Trump first
administration, then Biden's now Trump's again. like it always seems to be, you got this honeymoon
period, call it a year, year and a half after the presidential election, where everything's just up
only, and then maybe the sugar rush wears off, maybe some of the less beneficial economic policies start to ripple out, but for one reason or another,
we always seem to get that big correction,
call it a year, year and a half after the election.
Fair.
Yeah, I just think if they're just signing things now, right,
like the bill and all the things they want to implement,
by the time it actually trickles through the economy,
small businesses doing well, the voter base,
the mid to low income people actually start feeling
the positive effects of what they're trying to run.
I think it's going to be many, many months down the line.
So we're already in July pretty much.
Six months is not...
They haven't even started and six months isn't even like
nowhere near enough time for all of that.
Yeah.
Yeah, well, I mean,
if Bitcoin,
so a couple of things,
it can be a catalyst.
I mean, excuse me,
it can be a compilation of different factors
and events for Bitcoin
to have a blow off top in the back half of this year. It doesn't mean that, oh, and then it's, excuse me, it can be a compilation of different factors and events for Bitcoin to have a blow off top in the back half of this year.
It doesn't mean that, oh, and then it's a massive bear market after it.
It could just be a trending sideways zigzag into 2026.
And a like MSTR blow off top, you think?
Exactly. Oh, thank you.
Yeah, that's a great example.
Look at that massive MSTR blow off top way back over half a year ago in November 2024.
MSTR hasn't come close to $5 a share since then.
It's been over half a year.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is actually at a higher
price than it was in November 2024.
You guys
remember when Bissette said back in
February that markets need to
cool off and in six to nine
months you would see exactly
what the Trump economic boom is going to
look like? That
tells me IWm knew all-time
highs by that time which would put us uh in mid q3 and in q4 and beset hasn't been wrong it's like
beset's the new powell brother beset now is what powell was in 22 and 23 where you never fade powell
well you just can't fade people who control the money supply.
If they're telling you that it's going to expand, you cannot fade that.
So, you know, they're literally telling us the toolkit that they're going to use, right?
They're wanting to push Fannie and Freddie public so they can tap into 5 trillion in
potential QE.
They're already signing the SLR exemptions.
I don't know. I think it's about to get
crazy over the next 6 to 18 months.
So, Basant is
to Trump what Yellen was
to Obama,
basically.
Right?
Yeah.
Yeah, yeah.
Secretary of Chosierry? Yeah, yeah. Secretary of Social Security.
Is that what you mean?
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Because Yellen pumped the crap out of the Obama stock market the moment she came in.
After that one guy left, I forgot his name.
I totally forgot his name.
Yellen's predecessor.
Geithner, Timothy Geithner.
Yeah, Yellen's predecessor.
After Ye yelling came in
She pumped the hell out of markets man. It was it was unreal. It was unreal man
and now we have the scent who
actually understands markets and
Can actually speak is yelling yelling wanted to stick a knife in this industry and truly hated this industry.
So the Trump pump is coming. It's just a matter of patience. But we're starting to see that in
the stock market. And that's how it usually starts off. Trump gets off on stock market numbers. The
moment you see the S&P make a hair above its all-time high,
he's going to start posting about the stock market. That's when we can probably see some
follow-through in crypto. Trump is going to post about the stock market later on this summer,
just how Ansem tweets. It's going to be unreal. You guys remember that? Like when Trump first got into office and S&P went into price discovery, that's all he'd ever talk about?
That's what I'm talking about, man.
That's what you got to love to see, brother.
But chill.
What's going on, man?
What's happening, guys?
Appreciate you bringing me back, Wabi.
Yeah, just enjoying the uh enjoying the
conversation um you know short term i i still think bitcoin um you know i don't think we're
out of the woods yet i think bitcoin still has some things to work through market doesn't really
have like a clear sense of uh of direction either so um you know i, I think now is, you know, if you're more of a long-term
hodler, you're just kind of in the market and you've bought your position, it's just a matter
of waiting at this point. But if you're someone that is more of an active trader, I think these
are the times where you kind of like take advantage of this shift in
sentiment. Like we're going from, we're shifting from, you know, peak war FUD to, you know, now
we're hearing the Fed talk about and entertain rate cuts. We're, you know, hearing a lot of
bullish news coming out in regards to regulation. So markets are forward looking. And I think I
believe the most forward looking market is the trenches, essentially. So, you know, I think the
the risk appetite is there. And, you know, not a not a green light to just go gamble and bet the farm on some, you know, some pump fund, newly migrated
crap coins. But at the end of the day, there is still opportunity. There's always going to be
opportunity somewhere on chain. If you're just literally a trader that is just looking for where
the opportunity is, you know, I think that lies, you know, on chain is. I think that lies on chain.
And I think that on chain volume,
I've been saying it these last few times.
I've been on these spaces.
In fact, I said it yesterday.
I tweeted about it over the weekend.
I said, I think we're probably going to have some runners
spawn on chain here.
And so far, we're seeing, you know, um, daily,
these, these runners basically are going from zero to, you know, 10 mil plus, uh, again, not a green
light to just, you know, put your whole portfolio in there, but there's enough volume to justify,
you know, seizing some opportunity. If that's the style of trading that fits your goals, fit your portfolio,
et cetera. But with that said, this time kind of reminds me of the early innings before AI agents
and AI, before that entire run, in November, December last year.
Again, it's this shift, this small shift in sentiment that kind of front ran the
the pumps that we saw on, especially on chain.
on chain. And that's kind of where my focus is most of the time. But overall, still think we have
And that's kind of where my focus is most of the time.
some, you know, some games to be played with Bitcoin, with Ethereum, possibly in the short
term. And I'm not talking about like an absolute nuke to, you know, the low 90s or anything like that. If you look on the weekly chart, the weekly Bitcoin chart,
or even the three-day, the daily chart on Bitcoin, you'll see that we're forming like this
sort of bull flag. So I'm still bullish. But when you look, again, lower timeframe overall over the cycle, over these next few months, I'm bullish Bitcoin over these, you know, on a higher timeframe, I'm bullish.
But when you're talking about, you know, on the four hour, on the eight hour, on the daily, you know, I think we still have a shallow pullback that is at the very least on the table.
So for majors, that's going to catch people a little bit off guard.
But that's why I say the trenches is kind of on chain is kind of where it's at right now.
We've seen several runners at this point.
And I think, again, that just reminds me of right before the AI agent season late last year. So, you know, kind of taking advantage of that volume, seeing if we can catch some runners, just, you know, doing my thing in the short term as we wait for things to shape up on higher timeframes, but I'm really enjoying the conversation and just enjoying my time
in markets right now. I'm not trying to be a hero, not trying to play fancy, just
taking advantage of any opportunity that we see on chain. But yeah, nothing's changed.
We're still on course to, you know,
one of the biggest,
probably one of the biggest, you know,
altcoin seasons or at the very least longest
altcoin seasons that we've seen thus far.
I believe that solely.
Yeah, short time frames i'm with i'm with chill um yeah um bitcoin has run back up to the top of its
of this uh descending channel in terms of uh short time frames you're absolutely right you could get
a bit of a you could get some weakness
over the back half of this week and a pullback, you know, consolidation, who knows, between,
you know, 105, 104, one more time. But what I'm looking ahead to in short term, in short term, is next week is the all-important jobs week. And there is going to be plenty of bears coming out of the woodwork telling,
stoking the fears that here's where you're actually going to see all that softening data.
They're going to point to continuing claims.
They're going to point to initial jobless claims.
They're going to hand wave away any sort of seasonality of you know these these metrics
get a little soft every single year because it's the summer but you know they'll make up they'll
have a ton of excuses why summer seasonality isn't a thing this year they're going to say here's where
the tariff stuff is going to take effect all this bearishness running into next week's jobs data and some and and my
point is if this jobs data we're talking the private payrolls adp initial jobless claims and
then the big one thursday uh u.s government non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate
if all if those come in as bullish and meet and beat expectations, price on all assets is going to run.
Bitcoin is going to absolutely run.
S&P 500 and the Qs will absolutely run.
It's a short week next week.
So the big final jobs reports is Thursday, not Friday, as everyone takes off for 4th of July.
And price is going to run through that holiday weekend if we get what we want to
get. So, you know, I'm setting up, you know, I've been bullish, you know, have been bullish,
been bullish, still bullish and excited for what the back half of this year brings. But
if I was positioning, I'd be positioning now. I'm not going to, I'm not worried about like, Oh, let me, let me try to catch a, a 2k or 3k pullback.
I want to be in before next week because if it works out like we think it
will, that's, that's, that's how Donnie gets his breakout.
And all of a sudden we skip from something,
We skip from 110 to 120 in a blink.
we skip from 110 to 120, you know, in a blink, you know,
You start doing these massive leap drug candle legs as we are in escape velocity price.
Escape velocity is what I like to hear, man.
Donnie, anything else you want to touch upon, man, before I wrap up here, brother?
Anything else that you want to touch upon, man, before I wrap up here, brother?
No, bro, I think that's it.
It's just the dollar is also losing the key downside level around 97.7 at the moment.
If you get a nice full breakdown to about 96.5 from there, that confirms the downtrend to me to 90s, to the low 90s, which is just going to be huge for uh global liquidity so nice
to see that as well like literally man pull up a chart that's not in the favor of bulls it's very
hard to find one um it's just the setup is just insane right now uh yeah i i truly feel bad for
anyone that's you know cycle bearish here. That is literally insanity.
But I guess you need those people for the parabola.
But yeah, man, it's looking good.
Yeah, that dollar is going into a bear market, man.
I think it just confirmed it's a bear market.
And let me tell you, we haven't had a structural break in the dollar in multiple years.
It's been up only for a really long time.
And now it's just starting its true bear market, man.
I mean, it looks like it's about to be a falling night.
It's going back to 2021 prices.
Yeah.
Yeah.
And there's a channel from all the way from 2008 to now.
So it's about 17 years that it's actually breaking
down from if it loses about 95 i think so you're having like a an extremely high time frame channel
break to the downside which is just it's just indicating a much bigger uh macro signal as to
why the dollar is going down and where it could be headed over the next five to 10 years, how it plays out.
We're in for some exciting times.
But Donnie, Matt, I want to thank you guys for coming on today's show. Guys, if this is your first time tuning in and you've been enjoying the stream over the
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youtube for uh market check so guys thank you all so much and as always spaces are recorded
and just shout out to my lord and savior jesus christ as i always do guys gotta thank the big
guy upstairs gotta thank the big guy upstairs gotta
thank the heavenly father uh for giving me another day of health to talk marcus with you all so take
care everyone god bless you all until next time peace out take care Thank you. You got the power! You got the power! Oh. Oh you
you I'll shake the kiss No place to do so
You're gonna die
No can you never die
You seem like I'm just walking to you Oh Oh You got the heart!
You got the rules, dude! No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah!
Let's do it! Let's do it!
Yo, yo!
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Yo, yo! Yo, yo! Yo, yo! Yo, yo! Yo, yo! Yo, yo! Yo, yo! Yo, yo! Yo, yo! Yo, yo! Yo, yo! Yo, yo! Yo, yo! Yo, yo! Yo, yo! Yo, yo! Yo, yo! Yo, yo! Yo, yo! Yo, yo! Yo, yo! Yo, yo, yo! Yo, yo, yo! Yo, yo, yo! Yo, yo, yo! Yo, yo, yo, yo! Yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, Oh, my God.
