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Market Talk- Melt up continues! BTC hits 109k + stocks make new highs!
Recorded: July 2, 2025 Duration: 1:11:19Space Recording
Short Summary
In a lively discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored the recent surge in Robinhood's stock, the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs, and the evolving dynamics of altcoin seasons. The conversation also touched on the integration of AI and stablecoins in the market, alongside the implications of upcoming monetary policy changes and significant legislative developments that could impact the crypto landscape.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. you you See, never get out that it's your only one, and you can have a dream.
Oh, yes, oh, no.
Mother's gonna ever give me down.
Oh, yes, oh, no.
Mother's gonna ever give me down.
Mother's gonna ever give me down.
Oh, no.
Mother's gonna ever give me down.
Oh, yeah. Oh Oh And the joy of a kid could die Oh, yeah. Drop.
Drop.
Drop.
Drop.
Drop.
Drop.
Drop.
Drop.
Drop. Drop. So, I'm living a girl, all you got, you're better for where you are.
I'm the best, oh my God.
I'm the best, oh my God.
Nothing's gonna happen, I'm the best, oh my God.
I'm the best, oh my God.
So, I'm the best, oh my God. what's going on guys welcome back to the show welcome back to market talk brought to you by
because bitcoin this is wabi thanks for coming back to the show it's going to be a great one
man you know taking a look at the equity markets
over the last couple of weeks,
it has been one hell of a ride.
Robinhood stock, once again,
hitting a fresh all-time high.
I mean, at this point, guys,
we've been talking about Robinhood so much.
I've been talking about Robinhood so much
that I'm sure people must be wondering,
man, is this guy sponsored by Robinhood
or something like that?
That would be sweet, but maybe one day, man, maybe one day.
I do know that they were giving out some sponsorships last cycle.
But nonetheless, man, you see everything gapping up today.
Coin stock gapping up, hood stock gapping up.
Even ETH gapped up like 8%, 9%.
I think we're trading right about $2,, just above 2,600, depending on the exchange
you're looking at. Bitcoin, a couple of percentage points away from hitting new all-time highs. We're
talking about this on the show. This lower timeframe crab that we usually have on the hourly
tends to shake some people out. And they often think, man, are we going to capitulate this summer? We're going to have some nasty crash. But the reality is 2024 was kind of an anomaly,
to be honest. We usually have a wave of breadth across all markets in the summer. You take a
look at equities. Equities always have a fantastic summer. 2023, they had an incredible summer.
NVIDIA was making new highs, it seems, every
other trading session. And now Hood is taking that story. And looking back, I remember when
I had first stated, I think Hood was trading at like 20 bucks at the time. And I was stating how
MSTR is probably topped as far as Mindshare goes. Everyone's talking about MSTR. Everyone and their
mother is talking about MSTR. And I remember saying how Michael Saylor is probably going to pull some
sleazy salesman tactic as the real estate guys in 2006 and 2007. And what do you know,
he had a conference saying how you can earn 10% on your Bitcoin or some yield product
like that, MSTY or something like that, something, some ridiculous product. And I'm like, listen,
guys, if you actually want something that's reminiscent of a micro strategy and they
consistently buy Bitcoin and they consistently buy other crypto assets and they provide more
than just being a treasury company. Robinhood is the way. Robinhood is the way. And I put it up on
the nest during yesterday's space saying, hey, this was back in February of 24. There's a clear
discrepancy between hood and coin and hood and MSTR. robin hood pumped about 600 650 since then and
we can't really say the same about these all coins and that's why during these shows you know i've
been saying yes i do love talking about alts we love trading alter for the most part they've been
rotational and as far as buy and hold uh diversify outside of Bitcoin, the opportunities in the equity markets have been fantastic.
And I think something like the circle that's been pulling back a bit since that local high last week is going to be still a fantastic trade over the next 12 to even 24 months.
We have the big, beautiful bill that's going to be going live in a couple of days.
And I'm very confident, guys, that we're going to be in for a summer offense rather than defense.
Offense meaning melt-up, defense meaning chop.
And look, I got Dan, I got Matt, and I got Paulus on the show.
Donnie's feeling a bit sick, guys, so he wasn't able to come on the show today.
But this is going to be the last show of the week.
Tomorrow is a half day, so we'll only be doing our morning show, which is going to be on Twitch.
I think I already plugged you guys on that.
We're going to be having a new show on Twitch and kick called Ape Time.
Should be fun.
I'll plug that in the nest, uh, as I wrap up the show.
But as far as our spaces,
this is the last show of the week as we are going to be only doing a half
day tomorrow.
And on Friday we are closed across the equity market.
So we're not going to be doing any content.
So we're going to go ahead and uh
cook for you guys i'm feeling pretty optimistic about the market here we also have uh the sole
etf that just went live and man going back to robin hood that vlad guy truly truly put on a
hell of a presentation when it came uh to what they want to do in crypto. So you take a look at the market cap of HUD.
It has now flipped Solana, which is a long time coming, to be frank.
But HUD is probably going to be a part of the MAG-7, to be honest with you guys.
To be honest with you guys, at least that's been my thesis.
At least that's been my thesis.
There's going to be a potential for them to be the Amazon of all goods and services when it comes to providing capital markets, to be honest.
But nonetheless, guys, before I officially get started, before we officially cook over the next 45 minutes to an hour, probably 45 minutes,
cook over the next 45 minutes to an hour probably 45 minutes i do want to make this stream pretty
pretty uh quick concise to the point provide you guys with some alpha see the alpha that some of
the speakers have to give today but guys if y'all can go ahead and show some love to the space
hit the spaces tab and right above our profile pictures you'll see that link that says x.com slash I slash spaces.
Go ahead, hit up the like button,
smash up the repost or retweet button
if you still use those terms
when it used to be called Twitter.
As it does bring more eyes and ears to the show,
brings more awareness of the brand,
helps bring us more to the algorithm
and all that good stuff.
And of course, I'd be very much appreciative. So guys so guys space is recorded this is Wabi bringing you Market Talk by because Bitcoin
spaces as always are recorded so we're gonna go ahead and uh we're gonna go ahead and cook that's
kind of my uh my opening statement guys I think we're in for a hell of a weekend uh for the
crypto markets and I even think there's a possibility
for something like in others BTC to rally like 10 to 20%.
But nonetheless, I want to see what some of the guys have to say.
I'm going to pass it on over to Rob from Digital Asset News.
I'm sorry, sometimes I keep calling you Dan,
but I know it's Rob, man.
But Rob, welcome back to the show, brother.
I think the last time that Rob welcome back to the show brother I
think the last time uh that we had you on the show was back in late September I think it was
I'm not sure if you came on when Murad was on the show or the day before but I'm pretty sure
it was the week that CZ got out of jail and then everything started pumping out of nowhere. So I think the last time you were on was basically before the Q4 fireworks, man.
So I want to welcome you on the show, man.
And a lot has happened since then.
We had the election happen.
Everything just mega pumped.
And then Q1 came around.
And a lot of us, including myself, thought that Q1 was going to be absolutely insane.
But then Melania token dropped.
I think the entire market was confident that Trump coin would probably go to $100 billion or something crazy like that.
But then Melania token came, ruined the market, besent, and Trump said that, all right, markets need to relax a little bit.
As Trump says, the market is sick, the economy is sick, it's about to undergo surgery.
And then Besant said, give it six to eight months and then you'll see the Trump economy.
And then right, I think it was the second week of April, five minutes after the market opened,
week of April, five minutes after the market opened, when the S&P opened at $4,800 and change,
Trump said, now's a great time to buy stock. Besant went on national TV and he's like,
all right, the bottom is in, the VIX is topped, get ready. And we essentially had the quickest
V reversal in stock market history after a near 25% decline on the S&P 500 and almost 30%
decline on the QQQ, making it the fastest drawdown ever. I think that drawdown happened within five
to six weeks, followed by the fastest recovery ever. So a lot has happened since then, Rob. So
I want to welcome you on. I hope you've've been okay how have you been feeling in the markets after all
this craziness has happened man great to have you back on and looking forward to
the discussion brother yeah thanks for having me back on yeah hopefully we can
duplicate what we did last time after I was on and there was a big huge pump but
it's the the sentiment seems to have changed in a very quick amount of time,
but that is the crypto market, isn't it?
If there's one thing that's going to flip the fastest,
it would be the sentiment in crypto.
And it seems like the last, I don't know, 48 hours or so,
things have really been reversed.
But I think it all started off with the Solana ETF and the tokenized stocks. And it looked pretty good. And it's a weird thing because when I saw
that, I thought this is going to be great for Kraken. This is going to be great for any centralized
exchange that picks it up and the decentralized exchange and the Solana wallets. And then I
thought that Robinhood would follow suit and they wouldana wallets and then we i thought that robinhood would
follow suit and they would just pick solana and they would use that chain to tokenize all their
assets but they didn't and they and they picked arbitrum and it's just uh it i was talking about
that today and the question was why did they why did they pick our arbitrum but it actually was a
it was a pretty
I mean a good move for I mean altcoins in general because if you're going to pick arbitrum that
means you're essentially saying we give validity to ethereum as the settlement layer and we give
validity to layer twos as a transaction layers and of course they're not essentially saying like it's going to be just Arbitrum. They're going to build on the enterprise sector of Arbitrum and they're going to have their own token. But I mean, of like a positivity for the alt. Cause everybody, everybody so far,
if you've been dollar cost averaging or aping into all this recently,
this has been shitty for you. I mean, for quite some time. And I mean,
on the, on my show, almost every day I get the same thing.
When's altcoin season.
And I got to tell you,
I was hard pressed to say that there was really any of them coming up anytime
soon.
But I think with just this and then Tom Lee coming out from Fundstrat saying that they're essentially going to pull a micro strategy, but for Ethereum and the other institutions that are putting Ethereum on their on their balance sheet.
Things are looking pretty good for altcoin season in general.
So that's great. And of course, we know Bitcoin is going to be the leader here for quite some time.
So yeah, this is not a bad day.
Rob, do you think, uh, like the term alt season is so relative now you have the 2017 style
alt season where you saw things like NIO and NEM go to like 15 to 20 bill and market cap um and really
anything and everything that was getting listed on binance and kucoin back then would pull out
10 20 30 x's then you have 2021 where you've had that first sort of on-chain experience right and
things on chain i think were capped at like 200 to 300 mil but it was basically
an echo bubble of 2017 because I do believe dominance didn't go as low in 2021 as it did in
2017 and so far this cycle all season has only really been two to four weeks of breadth where
dominance only pulls back a little bit.
And so how do you see that playing out?
Do you think even if quantitative tightening stops, rates go down to, say, 3%, do you think it's just going to be more the same thing where it's only a select few tickers and
sectors that outperform and the majority of alts keep bleeding against bitcoin or do you think at some
point you'll probably see others btc rally like four to five x which i do believe would take
dominance to like 50 or something like that well uh first of all for for bitcoin dominance you
gotta give a shout out to to benjamin cohen who we do a show with every week, him and Guy.
And I remember a couple of years ago, three years ago,
I don't think not too many people talked about Bitcoin dominance.
Now this is all we talk about because Ben pretty much pointed it out.
And of course, somebody in the comment section will say,
no, no, I was talking about that 10 years ago. Sure.
But it seems like Bitcoin dominance has been the epicenter of discussion the last so many years. But how do I see things turning out? I mean, I hope it's as easy as like just closing your eyes and throwing a dart and picking an altcoin and everything blows up like 2021 did.
like 2021 did. But I don't, I just, I don't think that that's how it's going to be. And I think
it's because part of the reason is because retail came in pretty heavy when we had meme coins and
they were promised everything and they were lied to and they got dumped on. And I think what
happened was retail looked at it and says, oh, this is all meme coins.
All this shit is meme coins.
I don't want to be involved in this.
And they're going to stay away.
And I don't think they're really going to come back until you start to see some pretty big all-time highs
because eventually greed always wins and brings people back.
So what I personally have been talking about on the show
is I think the narrative, I mean, the narrative is always going to be, or not always, but it's going to be AI and USDC, which is like 91 and 92% of market share for all stable coins. Then you just
take a look at which chains are they built on and which one is doing the lion's share. And if you go
to visa onchainanalytics.com, and that's funny though, Visa tracks this stuff. Of course they
should because they're trying to become irrelevant, but it'll show you which ones are in the top four.
And I would take a look at those. And then of course the digitization of real world assets,
just take a look at the winners. I mean, right now it's Solana and Ethereum and Arbitrum,
who knows what the other big ones are going to be. And then outside of that,
the other big ones are going to be.
And then outside of that, I don't know.
You could look at what I like about Arbitrum.
What's that?
Circle.
Circle Internet Group.
Oh, Circle.
Well, Circle is USDC.
That's the stock ticker for Jeremy's.
Wouldn't that be exposure to that kind of stuff?
Stablecoins, RWAs, since they are essentially the supplier for all these people
coinbase all the other banks and all that stuff that want exposure to that
wouldn't they be yeah the supplier of the goods and services they basically
supply the the shovels right it's the same thing as like getting exposure when
coin bases IPO hit and then you
get into coinbase you don't want to get into bitcoin or you get in a micro strategy because
you don't feel like it's safe enough to get into bitcoin or you get into circle crcl and get into
that because you you know if you think that stable coins and payments are going to be the future but
you're not for sure which one so So you can do all those things.
I think the ones that are doing it are the ones that are doing pretty well.
Yeah.
Yeah, I think Circle is going to the MSTR story is already priced in.
And you know you've reached peak mindshare when you start seeing beta that what's already beta to begin with.
MSTR is essentially levered Bitcoin.
And when you start having these like treasury companies, which in reality, anyone with a business can become a Bitcoin treasury company.
I think there was like this struggling coffee shop brand in Latin America that bought like three Bitcoin and their stock jumped up like 500% or something like that. So when you start seeing stuff like that and you start seeing some of these
product heads like Michael Saylor starting to offer yield, it reminds me of Celsius and BlockFi.
And I think that's the one thing that brought retail in last cycle, wouldn't you say, Rob?
The yield products, the Celsius, the BlockFi's and all that stuff. And what's been the theme of every single crypto cycle since 2013?
It's always been yield products.
2017, you had BitConnect.
21, you had BlockFi and all that other crap.
And now you're starting to see the same thing.
But it just has a sleazy salesman slapping a sticker that says,
earn yield on your Bitcoin.
And we're a Bitcoin treasury company. So they're essentially piling on debt to buy BTC. And if BTC goes down a certain amount,
I mean, it's, it's basically another version of Doquan, but for shareholders of that company.
Yeah. Hold on. Was that a question or a statement i'm not for sure
that was a that was a statement okay i'm just talking then yeah yeah i mean i agree i think
the next uh just like i mean every every bull run we had the big uh blow off tops there's always
something that that goes wrong i think some of these these these companies that put Bitcoin on their balance sheet, I mean,
God bless them. That's great. But I don't think they really believe in it. It's kind of like,
because I'm old and I remember when it was the dot-com era and a lot of companies would put
just dot-com next to it just so they could pump their stockholder price, which was pretty smart.
And then unfortunately there was the dot-com bubble and everything collapsed.
And then of course those people, those companies that didn't believe in the internet, which sounds
ridiculous today, they just sold everything as much as they possibly could. And then everything
jumped. So it's the same thing with Bitcoin. Once these companies, once it starts to go down,
starts to go down i mean michael saylor will still be here he'll be here until if bitcoin
I mean, Michael Saylor will still be here. He'll be here until if Bitcoin goes to a penny,
goes to a penny which that's that sounds ridiculous but the other companies will
probably jump ship and the only question i have is just you know which ones and how many would it
be like five percent of these companies or would it be like 50 60 70 percent not for sure because
i don't know that i don't really know who they are i don't really know their conviction
I don't really know who they are.
I don't really know their conviction.
Yeah, I mean, all this is just going to point towards the main event, which is the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve.
Once America starts buying, I think I'm pretty confident, Rob, that that is going to be a massive, massive, massive blow off top.
It's basically like El Salvador in September of 21 times a thousand.
And once El Salvador started buying, the market got perma topped within eight weeks after that.
So history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
And talking about that, Rob, and I know we were talking about dominance a few moments ago, but dominance doesn't really start to trickle down until dominance hits like 70% to 75%.
We take a look at 2017 or even the beginning of 2021, dominance only started to go into a bear trend only after it hit 70% plus.
And who's the notional buyer for bitcoin it's stratify so i'm confident it can
hit those levels to be honest but the statement you write you you uh you said is right on the
money at this point everyone and their mother knows about ptc dominance so i think it's like
if we compare it to uh the wall street cheat sheet I would say we're about to go into euphoria for Bitcoin dominance.
That's just my take, though, right?
Powell only has a couple of quarters left on his term.
I'm confident in a rate cut in Q4 of this year or Q1 of next year, as I do think inflation is going to have a minus 2% handle, maybe like 1.8,
1.9. That should justify a cut. And I think the next Fed chair is probably going to come in and
just slash rates, like how Powell was raising them in 23, kind of like the inverse of that.
them in 23, kind of like the inverse of that. So yeah, that's something that I want to throw into
your direction, brother. Yeah, I mean, let's be honest. Trump administration is no fan of
Jerome Powell. They made that explicitly clear. And I think just today you had William Pulte, the head of federal housing, said he wants to have an investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell because of his statements at the recent congressional hearing where, and as I say this, people are going to start to kind of balk, but he said some statements about the Federal Reserve construction and renovation for their building.
And I don't know if you guys knew this, but it was in the like it was like one point nine billion.
Then I went to two point five billion renovations for the Fed chair building.
And he says, yeah, he goes, you didn't you didn't disclose this part.
You didn't disclose that part. You made false statements.
There's two things here. First, I find it. It that he wants to remove him because of cause, because of that,
which I'm not here to debate. I'm not here to say he shouldn't or shouldn't. I think Jerome Powell
did a pretty good job. We're not in a depression right now, but do I think he should have cut
rates? Potentially. And then when you have all that, there was just that part. But the second part,
I was shocked. I was like, it was $1.9 billion to renovate the Fed building? And you're telling me
that some people aren't paying enough taxes? Is it because we don't pay enough taxes? Or is it
because the taxes that we do pay are being massively mismanaged? So when I heard that,
I'm like, this is par for the course. But
yeah, once they get Chair Powell out of there, which his tenure is up in May,
or they could have him removed for cause. But I always said this, people would say that,
you can't remove Fed Chair Powell. You can't. can't well you can and you can do that by having
an investigation and you can have him removed and it seems like this administration come hell
or high water they're going to get him out of there as fast as possible so i see that happening
and then i see rates being cut because whoever they put in there is going to be nominated by
the senate and that is controlled by the republicans so yeah, I hope it's actually someone that's young.
I think Powell is like 70 plus years old.
And that's not to be offensive towards him, but you're in charge of monetary policy.
You need to be sharp.
This isn't the 50s.
It's not the 60s
um i i i remember he tried to be like volker when he was raising rates he kept on saying
my hero's paul volker my hero's paul volker but the economy back then was just absolutely horrible
and the stock market was flat on its face until Reagan came in.
But, man, I think that would actually lead to a VIX spike, a massive VIX spike, similar to what we had last summer in August. It would probably cause a lot of volatility in the markets, just as we experienced in August.
But, I mean, if we just take a look at how markets react under Trump,
usually with these big events, we always be reversed. Even if you remember, Rob,
in December of 2018, in November of 2018, the market started imploding. And it wasn't until
Trump got Powell in his office and yelled at him and cursed at him that he's like,
all right, we're going to do a batch of QE.
And then the market literally veered versus take a look at the S&P 500.
When it bottomed out in late December, within a quarter,
we were already back in a raging bull market.
So with Trump, it's going to be volatile.
We have another three and a half years of this.
So it's going to be pretty interesting how the story folds out.
Yeah, it's entertaining.
I'll tell you that.
Yeah, man.
I want to get some thoughts from Matt.
Matt, what are your thoughts on the current discussion, man?
And also, welcome back to the show, brother.
Hood is knocking on the door at $100 per share,
which is absolutely crazy man and
it flipped solana on its face and over the last few weeks equities it seems have outperformed
crypto similar to when crypto was outperforming stocks from that low i believe uh on april 7th all the way through mid-may crypto stole the show for
about a month and a half and now the stock market has done the same over the last month and a half
but across the board matt we've seen uh all these gap ups on majors and on bitcoin today so how are
you thinking about the price action man and it truly does seem like this summer is going to be more of a summer
offense than defense and i think myself you and donnie were talking about that back in early may
how summertime is probably going to be more entertaining than people believe uh just because
you know as you said matt on previous shows the summer doldrums have already been front ran in q1 where it was basically down
only with little to no opportunity man but welcome back to the show brother how are you
hey hey guys hey wabi um good thanks uh hey rob long time um yeah i i think this week is playing out how we speculated earlier Monday and last week.
This was going to be all about jobs data, all about U.S. labor markets.
And we got the big one tomorrow.
This was a little preview today with the ADP private payrolls, but honestly, tomorrow's the big one where we get another initial jobless claims, U.S. unemployment rate, and the non-farm payrolls.
And, I mean, as we've been saying, if it meets or beats expectations, then hold on to your butts.
Bitcoin and motor markets are just going to up only.
This is, you know, the bears, they haven't had anything to hang their
hats on. All the stats that we keep repeating, but whether it's earnings to CPI, inflation to
tariffs to et cetera, everything keeps coming up eventually on the bull side and u.s labor market that is the last gasp for the bears truly is um
nothing else is really panned out so if if u.s labor market says um puts a cap on the first half
of 2025 like nope uh turns out labor market's still strong company's still hiring you still don't have
uh uh any spike in unemployment you still don't have negative jobs growth if we get another
confirmation uh after five previous confirmations all year then truly bitcoin into price discovery
uh i mean we already saw s p 500 and nas NASDAQ making new technical all-time highs.
Watch out for the MAG-7 to take off. It's all going to go up as people quickly realize that
they are under-allocated before we get into the next earnings season. So I've been extremely
bullish. We were talking about the TA as well,
that take one look at Bitcoin and it's a multi-month bull flag. It just looks beautiful
looking for any excuse to escape into zero gravity. And that was our thesis,
And that was our thesis, that U.S. jobs reports and labor market, that's absolutely a big enough catalyst to send us there.
Matt, I'd add another thing that I think will add even more fuel to the fire.
And I saw Polymarket just reported a couple minutes ago that the House Republicans claim that they have the votes to pass the big, beautiful bill.
I think if that gets passed at the same time here over the next day or so, I mean, it's going to go crazy because you're talking about a lot of additional money printing. So like going into the next couple weeks and months,
I think it's really going to be a huge catalyst.
No, that's spot on.
That's absolutely right.
That's just one more bullish catalyst in the short, medium term.
You know, we can have a healthy discussion over the long term
of raising the U.S. debt by another $4 to $7 trillion. That's not
great, no matter how you justify it. But in the near term, short term, yes, this is tax cuts.
This is government spending. This is pouring gasoline on the fire and letting it rip.
So yeah, no matter which direction you look,
there's just way too many catalysts saying up only for the back half of 2025.
And I think it starts this holiday weekend, not sooner rather than later. So I'm glad to be, you know,
congrats to all of who uh stuck to their
guns in in the early spring you know um i know i know plenty of you were buying below 85 below 80
some even below 75 you know we were there too uh this space had like wabi you could tell wabi you
know like this space had what one one or one-fourth of the attendance.
But we were here.
We were saying, this is it.
Let's buy it up.
But now, truly, we're in the 11th hour.
Bitcoin flirting with escape velocity wants to go into price discovery.
No matter what macro event you like it's all looking bullish
um so let's let's see what tomorrow 8 30 says again we want meets and beats on uh unemployment
and jobs reports and uh it'd be it'd be an icing on top of initial jobless claims came in again
below 240k um but we'll see. We'll know soon enough.
Less than 24 hours.
Or excuse me, less than, yeah, less than a half a day.
Yeah.
The slowest part since I've been streaming over the last, like, almost three years now,
the slowest parts are always April and then then like the beginning of q3 i remember even
like last year at the beginning of q3 like the spaces would only have like 140 people 150 and
then it ramps up to the usual like three to 400 500 uh middle of q3 and then all throughout q4 and pretty much all of q1 but it's kind of
like when we talk about seasonality it's just human nature right usually easter people are
off the screens they get prepared for selling me and go away whatever that means and then at the start of q3 um you know july 4th
and all that stuff it's that last bit of uh vacation time before uh vana charm flows come in
and typically going into august back to school season uh people start getting back to the desk
and all of that volume starts to trickle back in there's
usually a volatility event that ramps up a little and then nothing really happens majorly until
after labor day so i would say between like april and july it's always mixed activity and markets
but you know in a trump stock market's going to get attention at any cost,
at any cost. And Matt, let me ask you this, man. This really reminds me a lot of
Biden's chips bill, which looking back, that's really what set off this bull market that we've
been in over the last two plus years. So do you think the CHIPS Act is kind of similar to the Big Beautiful Bill?
Spending, printing, stimulus for business, more liquidity in markets, that sort of stuff?
I mean, yeah, it's very similar.
Yeah, it's very similar. Let's be honest. The Big Beautiful Bill or Biden's Chipped Act, they're never actually paid for. It's sugar high and candy up front for debasement and pain later on.
Let's be honest.
debasement and pain later on. But, you know, no one's gonna, what do the politicians care?
They may or may not even be here in five years or 10 years. So, you know, whether it's Democrats
pushing it or Republicans pushing it, or if it's bipartisan, like it's the same old, same old. So,
you know, we can complain about it or make money off of it. I'm here to like, you know,
I'll complain about it in my off time, but I'm here, you're here to make money off of it. So that's long assets.
That's you want to be long Bitcoin? Absolutely. You want to be long NVIDIA? Hey, the time to do
it was obviously two and a half years ago. The next best time is now. So whether it's Bitcoin and stablecoins and
the new crypto ecosystem, or if it's AI, these are the two juggernauts in the entire space.
Everything just seems to be either playing one of those environments or
in the case of Robin hood,
playing them both at the same time.
you know,
it's an exciting time.
We'll see what,
we'll see what happens.
So Iran is probably going to break out pretty soon.
Iron.
iron.
Yeah.
Now that BTC has gapped up a bit nvidia's in price discovery the big beautiful bill
i mean iron probably has uh a meeting with new all-time highs wouldn't you say i mean well that's
the thing with that i mean we uh you were talking with rob earlier about alt season and bitcoin
miners they're they're they're just like alts, though. They really are.
It's all beta to Bitcoin.
And when Bitcoin goes into price discovery, it just floats all boats.
Everything rises with Bitcoin price when it hits escape velocity and there's no real resistance levels that anyone can point to.
And everyone just kind of straps in.
And then before you know it, you're right.
It's going viral and retail's FOMOing in and they're playing catch up trades. So like,
okay, well, I missed Bitcoin at 112. Let me buy MicroStrategy at 400. And then MicroStrategy levers up to buy even more Bitcoin. It's a whole flywheel that just keeps feeding on itself.
And it really ramps up, takes off when Bitcoin enters price discovery. So yeah, you can say XYZ altcoin.
You can say blah, blah, blah, Bitcoin miner.
You can say some sort of AI HPC hybrid.
It all feeds on itself.
And when this $2.4 trillion market cap cap bitcoin gets going everything pops on along for the ride
yeah and and we also have iwm about to flip green year to date and guys we take a look at the s p 500 and the qqq the moment those flipped green year to date we gapped up almost seven percent
and if the russell does that gaps up five percent i mean we're not that far off from uh
from testing the election high which was when coinbase was pumping like 20 percent
every other trading session so we take a look at what's rallying right now
you know what what's going to happen to arc invest right that's that's the big kahuna
to watch out for um they're okay yeah i mean i'm i'm mentioning this matt because when kathy wood
starts making money that is when the blow off top is not that far away you're probably oh yeah
100 right you're what you just said there absolutely you're right kathy wood and iwm
uh starting to run that you're right. You're closer to a blow-off
top than the beginning.
100%.
She's got to be so...
Kathy's got to be so pissed at herself, though.
I mean, it's been said many times,
but she had
some of the biggest NVIDIA
bags in 2021 and
2022. Sold it
all. Closed Arc K's position in january 2023 sold sold all the nvidia
and then we all know what nvidia did after that better than a 10x yeah i went to school with some
people that um are a part of arc and a lot of those guys they really don't know what they're doing
a part of arc and a lot of those guys they really don't know what they're doing no they don't yeah
they really don't it's and that's the thing too like i just noticed a lot of the older guys that
have been here for some time they had they still have that fire they still have that passion
you talk to anyone that was a wall street broker in the 90s um dude they have such a completely
different energy like some of the old heads and they do
spaces with some of uh the btc guys like the passion that they have for markets is unrivaled
but a lot of these guys that are like junior analysts at some of these firms they just get
their paycheck and they're so complacent they don't want to search for alpha they're like oh
you know just you know get some russell some spx and
like there's no there's no peter lynch is what i'm trying to say and peter lynch i've seen all
of his videos you can all find him on youtube guys i recommend you see all of his videos it'll
actually help you in crypto uh believe it or not there is some alpha and all of his videos are from like the 80s and
90s and all that stuff this is a guy who found home depot at a couple of cents which is insane
one of the first bulls uh from amazon and really the tech stocks uh i think i'm pretty sure he was like extremely bullish on on uh on microsoft and that's been
around for decades um so you know matt that's what i have to say about that i know it doesn't
really have to do much with markets but i just feel like art could have been something big but
they just got way too complacent well they keep the pro i don't know if it's impatience
or complacent but they keep changing up the basket before their plays have chance have a chance to
play out you know what i mean like all right they've held tesla for almost um 10 years. Okay, that's been a great trade, obviously.
They've held Coinbase literally since IPO,
but kept buying as it kept falling.
So that was smart.
That was good.
But other than that,
like their basket just changes constantly.
There's such a churn.
So I could never own their index because
any given month they're tinkering you know they're they're like oh we're closing this position and
adding that position and increasing this position and reducing that position and then and again
not to beat the dead horse but to to sell nvidia at its bear market bottom late 2022 early 2023 and miss the biggest winner of
the decade let's face it they also sold all their coin at 70 bucks that's not yeah but and then they
bought back in you're right and yeah they were flipping it around right yeah so they're like
who's who's at the helm right who's who's in control they they are too chaotic and i could
never touch them not with a 10-foot pole and they need they need some old blood in there man they
need someone that witnessed the the 1987 crash the 97 crash the uh 07 and 08 crash being around
in markets man like it either it makes or breaks you.
There are some people that went through Luna that just are never touching crypto again.
Don't want to hear about crypto.
But there are some savages out there that have managed to stick around.
And, you know, because of that event, they're here for the long they're here for the long game.
You take a look at the total crypto market cap our valuation all of total crypto market cap is barely on par with one of the mag seven
that that tells you that you have a long ways to go and there's probably going to be some altcoin
i'm not sure which one it's going to be that is going to generate escape velocity returns but um paul is there anything
that you wanted to say brother anything at all in regards to the conversation bro hope you're
doing well man thanks for coming on yeah thanks for having me as uh as always obby um i mean it's
it's just been quite uh comical you know uh the last couple days especially made me laugh just like the
capitulation you saw on alts a lot of people moving their um funds to robin hood and btc
seeing people that like have traded alts for like years that are like i'm a btc bull now like i don't
want to touch alts and like i think I mentioned this to you uh on the show like
a couple weeks back like I was smelling that like we're kind of bottoming out on all alt sentiment
um and yeah like I think if we start getting you know some of these catalysts that we're talking
about and just with everything going on there's just so much bullish kind of news
constantly like whether it's the treasury companies or like it's obvious now especially with what
robin hood just announced like like trad fight is coming on chain and there's going to be some very exciting times coming up. And we had quite a bit of chop to kind of get through.
But I think we're starting to turn a corner for real now.
And yeah, I mean, on-chain hasn't really heated up yet.
But you can start to just feel the sentiment starting to change.
you can start to just feel the sentiment starting to change.
And who knows, maybe we'll start major,
start to kind of climb up from here through the summer.
And then going into kind of like end of Q3, Q4,
that might be when the real froth starts to build up,
like froth starts to build up where you really see those like crazy moves on some of these,
you know, on chain assets.
But regardless, like there's just so much opportunity and we're blessed.
And whether it's equities, whether it's, you know, in crypto, I think obviously asset selection is just becoming more and more important
with more saturation that we have kind of dealt with.
That's why whenever we compare to past bull runs, it is quite different in the sense that
we didn't have as many assets, especially with all these launch pads, right?
We just have like thousands and millions of new coins a week.
And you just have to be a lot more selective about the way you play the game.
But yeah, no, just excited for, I'm personally just super bullish and super excited for what's to come.
And I think that the back half of this year is, is going to be a ride.
Yeah, I think, um,
some of the only names that have been heating up a bit over the last, uh,
couple of weeks has been useless.
That's part of the bonk eco.
It's pressing up against 300 mil.
LaunchCoin has been doing great off the lows.
Some stuff on ETH has also been doing great off the lows, like Ray, a few others as well.
It has been a coin picker's market.
Until this big, beautiful bill goes live, I don't know, man. I think we just want to continue to see majors gap up. Anytime Bitcoin has these moves back up to range highs, things like ETH really, really, really want to go for it, man. ETH looks like it wants to gap up to $3, three thousand but we'll see what the market brings man yeah um when does this thing go live by the way like what exact day does the
big beautiful bill pass well they have no house has to um house has to uh approve of the senate's
uh changes so i think their goal is to pass it before the before july 4th from what i understand
um last night the senate uh approved the new i guess updated version and i think basically between
now and friday um is when it should we should either find find out if it passes or not,
but even if it doesn't pass,
they could try again the following day, literally.
I think, so, if I had to wait the two,
just assume that the Big Beautiful Bill is going to pass.
Whether it's this week or next week or two weeks after,
it will pass. Whether it's this week or next week or two weeks after, it will pass.
They'll eventually twist enough arms to get it through. Again, to bring it all the way back to
the beginning, what I really want to see in less than 12 hours from now is let's have a great jobs
report tomorrow. Initial jobless claims, U.S. unemployment, and non-farm payrolls.
Let's see, meets and beats, that will send markets absolutely next leg higher
because that's an unknown.
That's a possibility, maybe it disappoints.
That's a thing that, once again, the bears to uh uh get hype about if there's a miss
and tell you oh here comes you know but you were you were wrong here comes uh the effects of
tariffs or inflation or insert your bear porn here you know so let's see that come in positive
and then um the rest is just great but Matt, isn't even the bear case of it bullish?
Because then people will say,
well, now we're going to get the rate cuts even sooner.
Yeah, but rate cuts can't stop a...
Not to go down a whole other tangent in conversation.
Rate cuts can reduce the pain of a slowing economy, of layoffs, of a potential recession.
But it can't stop it.
It can make it less painful.
But if companies are losing money and they're staring at, okay, our margins are in serious jeopardy.
We can either miss earnings or we can lay off workers.
We're going to lay off workers every single time.
And when enough companies do that, you just lose Americans buying new stuff. Fewer Americans buying cars,
fewer Americans buying phones, houses, goods, services, you name it, Bitcoin. Fewer Americans
buying everything across the board once you get one or two or three underperforming negative jobs
reports. That's literally just what that is in a nutshell.
So we don't want to see a single bad month, certainly not two or three in a row. None of that.
And in a rate cut, remember, this is a massive, massive oil tanker of an economy.
One or two or three rate cuts doesn't turn the ship around if it's going in the wrong direction.
So, yeah, let's not even play the what if.
Just give us some great jobs news and send Bitcoin on its way to 125.
Yeah, that makes sense.
I guess that goes back to the whole cutting into a stronger economy is always better than cutting into a weakening economy.
Because a lot of times they won't even be able to turn the ship around quick enough, even with the cuts.
even be able to kind of turn the ship around quick enough, even with the cuts.
Yeah, that's the danger.
Yeah, you're not wrong.
That's why there's so much talking heads and noise about like, look, if inflation is this
close to 2%, or if we get a month or two where it
goes below 2%, start cutting then. Start cutting right then. Why are you waiting for weakness
or poor jobs data? If you get your inflation down to 2% or below 2%, it's time to reduce
rates to 2%. Why are you paying people? Why are you paying bondholders
free money? It makes no sense. We have a real debt problem. We have a debasing dollar problem.
We have a bond demand problem. And if you're telling, we can debate whether we think CPI
We can debate whether we think CPI metrics are accurate or not. But if we're saying that CPI inflation is 2%, it makes no sense to pay bondholders 3.5%, 4%, and 4.5%. What's the free money for? Put the rates down where you're saying the cost of inflation is so we'll see we'll see
what's your thought on the numbers that came out this morning then because the adp numbers
weren't great today yeah adp is it's more volatile it's a it's more volatile. It's a little more chaotic. So it can have way higher highs and lower lows. year chart you'll see a one or two negative month in 2024 in 2023 in 2022 especially in uh 2020 like
it um it's it's way more volatile so so like one month that dipped into negative as long as it's
just one month the markets will look past that I think that's why big money just bought everything
today and completely ignored the negative number that was reported this morning. Whether you're
talking about Bitcoin or broader markets or blue chips or Mag7, everything was up only today.
No one paid attention to ADP because they know tomorrow is the big one. Tomorrow, again, initial jobless
claims, U.S. unemployment, and U.S. non-farm payrolls. So that's the big daddy tomorrow.
Oh, I know another other problem with the ADP. So the ADP private payrolls survey,
So the ADP private payroll survey, it literally is a survey and they depend on the good, they
depend on the reliability and the good graces of these private companies to respond to their
survey in a timely manner and to not forget a month or to not send it late.
Like it's literally an old school survey that they can't force these companies
to keep reliably replying to.
So that's why it always kind of plays second fiddle
to the big daddy, U.S. unemployment.
That makes sense.
Thanks for that insight.
Yeah, no worries.
8.30 tomorrow. thanks for that insight yeah no worries 8 30 tomorrow i mean if you if you if you care even
a little bit about macro tomorrow that's the one so that plus the big beautiful bill tomorrow
melts up brother 125 but donnie if donnie was here donnie would be saying like send us 125 if this goes right we got a date with
125 yeah yeah that's that's uh that that would be real man um hopefully he can be here uh on monday
because no spaces tomorrow or friday um but uh i think i think today was a good show man to wrap up the week so
i want to thank rob i want to thank paulos and matt for joining me up on the show
guys i'm sure all of you are ready to start your long weekend i mean i'm just taking a look at the
numbers right now um the people that are here it's like a little over 250 or something like that. We usually have close to 400.
So I'm sure a lot of the people that are usually tuned into these shows are probably starting their vacation.
But one thing is for sure, they won't be away from their screens if we have a 10% to 15% gap up across the entire market.
And the summer is going to be one for offense, not defense.
And it's showing us right in front of our faces.
And the S and P IWM is starting to gap up.
This summer has been more like 2023 than 2024.
And the proof is in the pudding in the summer of last year.
We were literally zigzagging from 55, 56K to 70K every other week.
That's how crazy that summer was.
We're not really seeing that.
It's more of a tight range, steady grind up with some pockets of outperformance.
And I just want to thank every single one of you that have tuned into today's show.
And in case you guys are new here, we are Because Bitcoin.
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guys until next time god bless you all shout out to my lord savior jesus christ for allowing me
Until next time, God bless you all.
another day of health to talk markets with you all without him none of this would be possible
all the glory goes back to him so thank you all so much big love to you all see you on the next
one take care bye bye Thank you. . Thank you. Music Thank you. . so Thank you. .
