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Market Talk - New highs incoming soon!?Bullish September!? Prepare NOW
Recorded: Sept. 3, 2025 Duration: 0:58:39Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.次回予告 Music
Music
Music
Music
Music
Music
Music
Music Music Music Music Music Music don't look down just keep your head
It's the top of steel.
You gotta learn how to keep it.
Oh, man.
None of the stakes.
The throttle will open like a fire.
And you press the gates.
You press the gates.
You press the gates.
The golden floor, the back of the yard.
Nothing gonna stop you, there's nothing that's wrong.
So close now, you nearly at the brink, so we'll check.
Ooh, yay!
Welcome to the limit.
Take it maybe one step more. I will keep still playing so we better play. Oh
Oh Music Music Music
Music
Music
Music
Music
Music
Music
Music
Music
Music
Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music No one left to stand in your way.
You might be telling us, but you'll never be saved by yourself.
No one left to stand in your way. Guys, welcome back to Market Talk.
Man, it's been a couple of days, hasn't it?
A few days in crypto feels like a couple of months sometimes, guys.
What an honor to be back with you all here today on this fine Wednesday or Thursday.
But I want to welcome you all back to Market Talk brought to you by BB.
I'm your host, Wabi, and I'm here joined by Donnie.
And look, it's been about five or six days since the last stream.
And really, I just wanted to have today's stream to kick things off again now that the big boys are back at their desks now that we survived Labor Day.
Now that it's post-Labor Day and over the next week or two, volume should be kicking back into the crypto market.
And I also tried to fly.
I figured I just want to have this stream with Donnie, right?
And then tomorrow and moving forward, we'll probably start to have the panels and all that stuff.
It's just with spaces, it's really hard not to dilute content.
With spaces, it's really hard not to dilute content. And quite frankly, sometimes I'd rather just have a small panel because one thing I really don't like doing is like, oh, it's your turn to speak. It's his turn to speak. I'd rather just have a conversation, right?
be uh content that's that's actually filled with quality and not just like people waiting to speak
like he i have my i have my hand up let me speak now this isn't a classroom but anyways man um
look if you guys look over the last uh two years usually a week or two after labor day things start
to catch up if you guys look at what happened last year, about a week and a half after Labor Day, we had things like SPX 6900 starting to absolutely rip face.
We also had Giga rip face as well.
Soul on-chain was essentially the on-chain interest gauge.
And now we have Pump as that leading indicator, right?
It was Sol last year, and now it's something within Sol
that's giving you some on-chain signal.
We have touched upon this on the show.
I think during the last stream I had said that I truly just don't think
on-chain is going to come back in a big way until you start seeing
pump pull out some massive numbers and we have pump coming into the august highs i think if you
break above that guys it's going to be off to the races um you have btc on this local this local
setup i think donnie talked about it early last week. If you get above 113, it's probably going back to range highs.
BTC currently close to 113.
If it gets above that, you'll probably have this higher low that we formed on Labor Day, funny enough, at 107 be confirmed.
Front running that 106 level that many people were talking about.
And we also have the FOMomc that's the elephant in the
room we have the fomc um in about 12 days the fed is going to cut if you look at poly market odds
are still well above 80 and now you also have the odds of a 50 basis points cut coming in that's
trading higher and higher which if the fed actually does cut by 50 basis points cut coming in that's trading higher and higher which if the fed actually does
cut by 50 basis points then my goodness man we are going to chad so hard so hard it's going to be
insane the setup is unreal the playbook is about to unfold scott beset is in the buttons and look
we had president trump come out yesterday and he said, all right,
guys, the stock market might be a little bit shaky. It might just do nothing for a bit until
these tariffs are cleared. And I think that all resolves in the next week or two. So he's basically
telling you to expect a bit more chop and tradify and as we've seen over the last few
months since the bottom in april usually when tradify stops outperforming crypto crypto usually
catches up and it's something that i've been talking about here on this show right hey robin
hood has been going on a tear but i think it's time for crypto to catch up. You look at others BTC and you look at
HUD, there's a clear, weird arbitrage trade to be made there. I know it's quite odd, right?
Comparing a blue chip stock to altcoins outside of the top 10 on their Bitcoin pair, right? That's
definitely not something to seek alpha for, you might be wondering. But I certainly think that that is something to pay attention to.
You look at the Others BTC chart, and then you look at the way Robinhood formed that bottom in late 2023 before it started to go absolutely berserk.
And I think the setup is there.
Just how Robinhood was your chart to look at new growth companies coming onto the market.
I think others BTC offers you that same signal.
You see others BTC at range highs.
What are you also seeing?
You're seeing sole BTC lead.
You're seeing pumps starting to outperform things like hype.
starting to outperform things like hype.
And you're now seeing things on Soul on Chain
that might replicate something akin to AI, right?
Those of you within the BB Discord
will know exactly what I'm talking about.
You have some RWAs now live on Soul
over the last couple of days
that are probably going to be insane heaters.
And we also have BuckFun announcing partnerships with Kik,
which is honestly insane.
They are securing partnerships that actually means something, man.
You look at some of these projects,
they announce partnerships with Walmart and all that stuff.
There hasn't really been that much impact you look at things like chain link they're partnered with with every single grocery store every bank every sticker production company they're probably
they're probably partnered with like kfc or something bro link has partnerships that that
i've never even heard of they're probably
partnered with toys r us at this point man uh rest in peace toys r us man good times i actually
think toys r us actually is coming back slowly um they're opening up like smaller stores so
maybe that's uh maybe that's the signal right maybe toys r us opening up um a flagship
store could be market alpha imagine that guys but uh i'm gonna go ahead and uh kick it off with
donnie now but before we do that guys before we do that before we officially start today's show
if you guys can go ahead and do me a solid favor and show some love to the space
you guys that are regulars here on market talk i already know how to do that all you have to do is
click the spaces tab once you do that you'll see a link right above our profile pictures that says
x.com slash i slash spaces hit up that like button smash up that retweet button guys we are about to get into
the most exciting part of the year if history is any indication this is usually where trends start
to form the following week or two after labor day you start to see your winners going into Q4. And once we're settled in Q4, that is when things get absolutely hot.
People get more hours at work.
They start getting their Christmas bonuses and all that stuff.
And it usually leads to a good blow off.
And although I do not think at all whatsoever that the cycle ends in six weeks. Usually cycles have ended 18 months
after the halving. I don't really think that's the case. If you have Fed monetary policy switching
from hawkish to neutral to slightly dovish, I just can't become bearish on the market when you have
that sort of setup happening and GDP projection rates over the
next year or two are 6%, 7%, as Scott Bissett stated a couple of months ago.
I simply cannot.
I still do believe that there is going to be some sort of local top, at least for majors,
for majors going into December.
going into December.
And on-chain is probably going to be on a massive, massive, massive run
not seen since probably Q2, late Q1 of 2021.
I think everything that we've experienced up until now has been a prelude and opportunities for people to experience what DeFi summer was.
If you guys look at others BTC from late June all the way to January, every single altcoin did well.
If you guys look at, if you guys even look at like February to March of 2024, that small time period where memes and AI went crazy.
If you guys look at Q4 of last year, if you guys look at this summer that just passed, those have all been preludes and small examples of how DeFi summer was.
of how DeFi summer was.
Yes, I understand you weren't able to log on to an anime website,
buy a few fruit tokens, and get like 30,000% APY,
but many insane trades occurred during that time on ETH
and more specifically on Solana, man.
It's honestly insane the stuff that has happened on Sol this summer
while liquidity was still fragmented. Everything that we've seen from the April lows until now is
just a small prelude. And I truly do think that liquidity is going to come back into this ecosystem once cuts come in and all that liquidity that was fragmented
and destroyed uh during trump coin and melania token is probably going to come back and guys
it's going to be an insane show so donnie welcome back man it's been uh almost a week and the playbook is unfolding, man. We are now going out of the most e-liquid
part of the year, which is usually the last week or two of August going into early September.
Usually right after Labor Day, market starts to pick back up in volume.
We're starting to see some trends in crypto.
And dude, I think any high or low that was meant to be put in has been put in.
And looking forward to this conversation, man.
How are you feeling?
What's the next step in this playbook are we in for some insanity and the
people are hungry to hear about this critical and emergency market update this is a critical
and emergency market update man good to have you back, Wabi.
It's been, I would say, a boring week without you, bro.
So these spaces, they're definitely fun.
When you get them every day, you kind of take them for granted.
But when you have that break, you're kind of yearning for another one.
And yeah, it's nice to have a good host on spaces like yourself,
setting up a nice conversation.
And it's also nice to have the market playing out in a positive way
because we've been having a 16-day downtrend.
And incrementally, the bear is getting louder and louder and louder
where really we were setting up a bottom the entire time.
And actually, I made a post kind of explaining this.
I'll just read it out.
I won't share in the nest yet.
But I was saying how the local downside is manipulative price behavior.
It's designed to induce sentiment extremes and force capitulation.
It feeds on fear.
There's no fundamental reason as to why that we're having this price action right now.
Fundamentally, we're looking at everything.
We should be bullish. that we're having this price action right now. Fundamentally, we're looking at everything.
We should be bullish.
We're setting up a nice technical liquidity trail all the way down.
We're following the gold fractal.
Rate cuts are coming.
We already priced in the bad,
sort of shocking news of,
oh, wow, the economy is actually slowing.
All of that was already getting priced in anyway.
Jerome had his sort of dovish appearance at Jackson Hole.
We know that we should be pricing an upside any moment now.
And all of these stabs to the downside were literally to induce that fear,
make people capitulate so that you can build momentum back on the upside
when they reverse the chart, basically.
The market makers who clearly were exploiting these liquidation cascades to the downside. And following that, I was saying how what's being built is basically a
springboard disguised as a trap door. And it's, it's really interesting, because every single
pivot point we've had in this market, literally from the 15k low low has been right on the fence of we're going to nuke much
lower or this is the bottom every single time including this one right if you lose that certain
uh demand order block that we had on btc let me just quickly check where it was around 107k to
105 if you lose that then yeah you're gonna potentially go straight to 100k If you lose that, then yeah, you're going to potentially go straight to 100k, right? You're
right on that fence. Again, a springboard disguised as a trapdoor. And that's where everybody
capitulates. They know the technical levels on the chart to where many people will flip bearish
if you lose that line. And they keep stabbing into that zone, keep stabbing, keep stabbing,
people getting more bearish, selling positions selling everything basically you know preparing for 90k or something like that um but fundamentally
again we've got every reason to be pricing an upside over downside so that was that's the setup
that we've had again we can't confirm that the low is you know as close to 100% in as possible until, for me at least, to pass $114.9K
because that's when all of this started, basically.
That's when all of the downside cascades begun.
And they were dumping tons of BTC to get price
to cascade through those liquidation zones on the chart.
Now, and then the last line on this tweet
was basically the reversal that follows will expose the trap, right?
Because you won't know until you start reversing out that, damn, that was actually the low and I capitulated at the bottom.
And again, it sets you up for that classic series of events of disbelief, renewed optimism, FOMO, euphoria.
You need to have people positioned offside to have a very strong rally on the upside as they keep buying
incrementally higher and higher. It was the same from the 74k low. So the key level at the 74k low
was obviously 99.5k. You guys saw it with your own eyes. As soon as you crossed that level,
the market started to be reinvigorated and everything started to rip even on chain.
you know be reinvigorated and everything started to rip even on chain so that key level for me
right now is that 114.9 i think if you get above that convincingly so with impulsive price action
not kind of trickling up there because if you trickle up there you're setting up you know
another sweep of the downside liquidity but if you impulse at any moment from like 112 to 115,
if you set up an impulse to smash through that zone,
then I think that's your confirmation
that whoever was exploiting these lows
and manipulating the chart in that fashion
to set up what I just explained,
they're done with that, right?
Now we reverse back up
and obviously you'll have a sentiment flip.
You'll have momentum start building to the upside
as people you know incrementally get back into the charts so that's kind of where we're at right now
we're at a right now specifically we're at kind of the highly liquid upside zone so at any moment
you could expect just basically a god candle to send you to 114.9. I don't know if that will happen or not.
I literally just need to see it and watch.
But you're at the highly liquid zone, so it can happen very quickly.
You're also continuously setting up...
You've continuously been pricing in higher lows on the low timeframe charts.
But that also means that you're setting up downside liquidity as well. So
you're in this weird spot right now where you need the impulse to go higher if you don't want to have
a higher low, let's say at 109k or something like that. Or even 106.7 again, I literally can't call
if that 106.7 is in or not until we pass that 114.9 convincingly. Because again, that explains that the job was complete down here.
And now we're pricing an upside momentum, basically.
So interesting setup that we have.
I think the more that we edge closer to FOMC,
the higher the likelihood of the low being in,
regardless of if we cross these levels or not.
But to hammer it in stone, definitely
need to get above that level
now again why can we expect upside for me it's just been as simple as following the gold overlay
if liquidity explains you know 90 of uh asset prices if it's if gold is basically going up or
down or you know the little uh uptrends and downtrends that it's been having we've been
following it pretty closely
this entire time. And even this drawdown was telegraphed on the gold overlay. And we definitely
had the reason to price in downside before any sort of upside. The only difference was that the
gold pullback was basically much sharper to come down and recover. And this one dragged on a little bit longer, but we've had,
you know, deviations away from overlays like that on M2, on gold, on any sort of overlay.
There's always deviations. It's not going to be the exact same, but it's more so the directional
indicator of, are we going up or down on a higher timeframe scale that you need to pay attention to?
And that thing is pointing still much higher. We still have to price in a higher high, a much higher high. So that's going to verify to me,
if we get above 114.9, that we are actually pricing in that overlay. And we're basically
headed for a much higher high. And it makes sense to me as well, just because of the whole
Fed situation, I think it is going to lead to upside if they do cut.
That's pretty evident with even just the slight pivot from Jerome, how low cap stocks have been performing. And obviously, they're very close to all time highs. Now, if you do get a convincing
break of that high, I just, you know, there's no reason for crypto not to explode with it.
So plenty of reasons why we should be pricing an upside down and why we're kind of done pricing
in the downside. But that confirmation is still 114.9. You get above that. For me, I'm targeting 138 to 182
and with a high probability, basically. So if we get up into that range, you're going to have...
I think actually, I've been looking at ETHBTC. You know, Wabi, I was saying that we are coming
super close to that 0.44 resistance.
We came just short of it.
And Bitcoin dominance obviously is deviating that 58.5% level that I had.
You're kind of retesting it now.
I think if I'm right, that BTC is going to 138 to 182 on this next leg.
And we are going to start pricing an upside you know either the lowest in or very close and
we're pricing that in pretty much now like starting from let's say the next few days or
one week i think btc dominance could have a relief rally just a little bit while bitcoin takes that
liquidity just to get even above 130 135 ish and then as that gets priced in, obviously the market will get more euphoric,
more reassurance that we are actually breaking out. And that Bitcoin dominance chart can then
start to give liquidity back to halts. Because ETH BTC again is right at that resistance.
It's been up only since we broke the weekly market structure at 0.03. It hasn't had a pullback yet,
like a significant one to put in a higher
low. So that makes a lot of sense. And that doesn't mean that ETHUSD can't trail up with Bitcoin
on this rally. You just need BTC to get above that 130 and obviously go higher than that.
And then start forming that range to then in that range is where I think that Bitcoin dominance
will really nuke because it's just super deep in price discovery.
You already have the momentum flipped on ETH BTC, on Sol BTC.
It's about to break out on the weekly as well.
And obviously, others BTC is gaining momentum on its own chart as well.
So you've got all of the old season indicators basically in the right direction.
There just needs to be one more push on Bitcoin's chart
to really get it rolling. And I think that level is 130 for BTC, but I'm expecting higher than that
on this next leg with everything that was discussed. So yeah, I think the setup is there
literally. And it doesn't even matter if you come to 106.7 and clean up all of that liquidity because I
still think you're headed for higher highs.
Literally, you probably sweep
that zone and that's the bottom and then you
continue higher but you
don't even need to take that zone.
It's hard to explain how these market
makers operate but
as long as they
have filled enough buys, and they can obviously with
all of their algos and everything can sense that there isn't too much sell pressure on the current
uptrend, they'll just send it higher. There's no need to go and take that liquidity, fill more
buys, all this kind of stuff, right? They kind of assess momentum. And if the momentum is not there,
if people are selling too much, then they will,
you know, let it go down lower, fill another buy, push it back up again, and then see if that seller,
if the seller exhaustion has basically taken place. Once that's complete, that's when they
have a much easier chance of flipping the momentum, basically. So you won't know until
they're done with that, with their job until you pass that 114.9K level.
But as soon as it's crossed,
for me, that's like as close to 100%
as possible that the low is in.
So yeah, I think we're completely set up
for a nice September.
And if not, if we do have to take 106.7,
then at worst, you're going to have to wait till October.
But yeah, to me, it just makes sense
to kind of rally into FOMC here
over the next couple of weeks or something like that
and basically continue from there.
But what else did I see?
Oh yeah, gold is breaking out finally from this range
that has been consolidating in for like four months now.
You left a little bit of a gap around 3.46-ish.
I don't really put too much weight in gaps
and all of that stuff.
I just look at the raw price action
and it does look like it's breaking out.
Now you're at the point where you can argue
this could just be a deviation.
However, to give kind of more confluence
that this is going to be a breakout
is the fact that I think that the dollar
is destined to go lower
as soon as Jerome basically speaks
or we get the rate cut projections on the dot plot
on the 16th of September, it's just going to send the dollar lower.
And we know the dollar has been inversely correlated to gold somewhat
as gold is basically just comprised of global financial conditions
and the main components of that is the DXY and yields.
So if we are pretty certain that the dollar is destined
to go lower, then that means gold already at 3.5, almost 3.6, it's probably headed to 4k,
right? And if Bitcoin's following gold, and we're still yet to price in that significant higher high
that gold had to 3.5k basically sends us to 138 to 182 Bitcoin, followed by a range,
then we're going to follow that gold rally as well,
that it goes to 4K, right?
And that means you're having two waves on the Bitcoin chart.
So one this year, price in that range,
and then follow for the second wave.
Obviously, if DXY goes down,
if gold fulfills the rally that it's supposed to
when the dollar drops, all that kind of stuff.
So that takes you well into 2026.
And on top of all of that, if we actually do,
if it does play out like that,
the BTC over gold chart, as in like BTC,
how do I explain this?
The BTC gold chart, basically.
Bitcoin versus gold.
It's still not in price discovery.
And it obviously has gone into price discovery every other cycle because Bitcoin has been so much smaller than gold. It's been gaining
a lot of ground over gold. But I think that's not going to change if we're heading into
a digital era and Bitcoin is being adopted as the digital version of gold. It should
be gaining ground over gold with every liquidity cycle that we do have.
And we haven't had it break into price discovery yet.
So if gold is still yet to fulfill a higher high, potentially around 4k, the dollar is
destined to go lower, Bitcoin is still trailing gold to fulfill the last wave that it had,
and then it has to fulfill the second wave i would think that the btc gold chart
still won't rally until gold finds its local top let's say around 4k or whatever maybe has a 20
drawdown or some sort of range and then you're getting rotations out of that asset into btc
while this environment is still open so we haven't had massive rotations out of gold into btc yet
clearly because this chart is still below all-time highs. But if we're still yet to price in two waves, plus have the rotation out of gold
into Bitcoin, then I guarantee you it's going over 200k next year. No question. If the dollar goes to
the low 90s and gold fulfills its rally to 3.8 to 4.2, 100% BTC will be above 200k in 2026.
So we're kind of just waiting
for these last confirmations of that
and obviously seeing how high
this first wave goes for Bitcoin.
And then yeah,
basically just continue following
the same things that have led us here
this entire cycle.
Literally the noise cutter.
BTC gold and the dollar.
That's literally what's been
the most accurate analysis over everything. People cherry picking like bits of data or this, that and the dollar. That's literally what's been the most accurate analysis
over everything.
People cherry picking like bits of data
or this, that, the other.
This thing has literally had 90% accuracy.
So just going to continue to use the same old boring stuff,
play the technicals correctly on the chart.
If the technical setup is showing you signs of a bottom
and a very easy path to a new all-time high
with a liquidity trail,
and you've got forward-looking data pointing much higher,
you take that trade over any of the other noise.
It was the same at the 74K low.
A clean technical bottom, forward-looking data with DXY nuking,
gold rallying, M2 up and to the right, forecasting a bottom as well.
All of the noise.
That was the biggest noise we've ever had in I don't know how many years.
It still played out, right?
You at least play the technical setup because that's what gets you as close to the pivot
point as possible.
And then you kind of gauge from there, right?
You can play your stop losses.
You can do whatever you want.
You can cut your positions if it fails.
But yeah, technical setup, forward-looking data, and a bit of logic.
And it's been playing out perfectly.
So there's no different moving from this point onwards.
Just need to see this dollar nuke at FOMC,
and gold's going to rally.
BTC's probably going to rally as well throughout that time,
and just keep trailing three to four months behind.
And we also see silver going nuts too.
Even some other metals like palladium have also been rallying.
And anytime we start seeing gold move up and some of these other commodities start to move up while the crypto market and majors start to sort of lag behind it in a weird way, right?
Crypto catches up in the snap of a finger, man.
And you want to know something, Donnie?
Give me one second. Hold hold on guys I'm like getting a couple of texts I need to respond to
okay all right anyways you know Donnie um if we look back at last year and the year before that, and even 2021 and 2020, usually we start moving from like the 15th moving forward.
Last year, that higher low was confirmed on September 6th.
The year before that, I think the low was also priced in a little bit after that.
I think like on the 10th, I believe.
Yes, I'm pretty sure it was on the 10th.
Because I remember everything that was trending on chain got absolutely hammered on that day.
And then it was off to the races.
Slowly but surely, it was off to the races slowly but surely it was off to the races and what do we have
coming out of uh the middle of september the fomc man no going into the second half of september
we have the fomc so history doesn't repeat itself man but uh but it often rhymes and
we're also seeing some interesting things on chain here happening as well.
But before we touch into that, Donnie, if you look at ETH BTC back in May,
back in late April, early May when ETH BTC pulled out that monstrous move,
I think it was the biggest back-to-back multi-day rally that ETH BTC experienced in years.
And I remember the sentiments like, all right, no, that's it.
That was your bounce.
Everything is going to go back to the range lows, the macro range lows.
And all ETH BTC did after that was range for like a month and a half.
BTC did after that was range for like a month and a half and we pumped back up to
To that range that we were in in February before that nasty final dump and
Here we are at here. We are recently pumping to that level that we were discussing
Just above point oh four
Which you do have a lot of uh price action history there i mean
we range there um throughout q4 through late october all the way from late october of last
year all the way till early january of this year we were ranging between like 0.038 0.04 maybe just a little bit above there and whenever you have a lot of uh
volume a lot of price action history at a certain level and you're trying to get above it it does
take some time so perhaps if btc relaxes here until october early October. And we see things like others, BTC and Soul BTC start to catch up.
And, you know, I'll say this, man.
I think this is where Soul ETH catches up in a big way.
I think the growth story on Solana is about to come back in a massive, massive way.
You have sole treasury companies about to get announced.
And the fact of the matter is, right, like ETH is for institutions and sole is the product market fit for retail.
They have the new phone that came out, the Solana Seeker phone.
And you know what I find, Donnie, is not to deviate too much from technicals,
but whenever you have a product that launches in crypto that will actually bring on more users,
the current demographic of its participants that log on here every day they hate good news
they honestly hate good news they don't like it when actual progress is being made and with these
solana phones like you are putting crypto into the hands of of the people. And the last time that the Solana phone came out, I think was in
Q4 of 2023. And if you had bought that phone, you basically got like five grand worth of bunk.
So not only did you make your money back from buying the phone which at the time i think
was like six hundred dollars but if you had just held on to that to that airdrop from bonk alone
not to mention all the other airdrops that you got you you got onboarded to crypto one-to-one
and that's how people should be onboarded like give them airdrops like the
e-foundation all the fees that they've made all the money that they've made all the grants that
they've given out like dude they can actually put um crypto into the hands of the people they
really really can and we're also starting to see some of these streamers like MrBeast use Polymarket. Polymarket is a crypto product, man.
Polymarket is the biggest prediction market in the entire planet.
And it is a crypto product.
It is a crypto native product.
So this cycle, you've had Polymarket.
Polymarket, this cycle you've had pump fund.
This cycle, you've had PumpFun.
And honestly, man, the growth story just for markets in general, man,
we're about to see something not seen since the late 90s, in my opinion.
I still stick by that.
But yeah, as far as this local setup here, man, after this FOMC,
as this local setup here man after this fomc which i i think donnie this fomc is just going to be just
as critical as the may one it's going to be off to the races it's going to be off to the races and
just as we saw bitcoin consolidate for a few months while eth went crazy I think the same is going to happen with ETH after it has like a local blow off
between 6,000 to 8,000 while other altcoins go crazy. I still do think that ETH BTC will be going
in price discovery over the next year and a half, 12 months, I just think that the road to get there is going to be filled with
more consolidations and corrections than people think. And I think the dopamine effect that
people in crypto are used to, right, following the four-year cycle, it's going to get tested
a lot because, as we've been saying on the show here for the last few months the the true max
pain scenario is uh more of these quicker bull and and quicker bear markets within a larger
bull market where the denominator which is currency goes to zero against it and people
are eventually forced to come into this market because
just sitting in cash isn't really gonna it isn't really gonna do much man and when you go out into
the real world man and like you try to talk markets with people that are just used to working
a entry-level job or retail, the rate of information that they get
compared to what we get is almost like night and day. It's almost like separate realities, man.
Have you ever seen the movie Limitless, Donnie? You ever seen that movie with Bradley Cooper?
It's kind of like that. This being so in tune with markets and the way money works,
you start to view reality a little bit differently. And it's really hard to detach yourself
away from that. And especially in crypto, you have these time periods where the market goes so crazy and you get so locked in that it truly feels that way.
Like you're on NZT, I think that's what the pill is called.
And that's pretty much what I've got, bro, if you want to follow that up.
But I also see you put something up on the nest.
Yeah, I forgot what I was going to say, but it was something to do with
obviously the ETH BTC chart. You were talking about that at the start.
That was the exact bottom of ETH BTC, which I remember around those spaces. I had a few posts
prior to this one, trying to scope out the bottom on ETH Bc it was super it was a super hard bottom to basically
figure out but as we started pricing in that capitulatory downside where it was just like
perpetually down only uh i started to kind of connect the dots as to you know you can clearly
see on that chart if you guys are on the nest the entire ethb tc downtrend was during a massive
blowout on the dxy staying above that key level of 100 for three
years. And I was just saying to myself prior to this post, I really wonder what's going to happen
to ETH BTC as soon as you lose that key level of 100 and financial conditions become easier globally.
Global liquidity also appreciating from that. And it literally marks the exact bottom of ETH BTC.
appreciating from that. And it literally marks the exact bottom of ETH BTC. So I'm really bullish
on it because I know that the dollar is more likely than not cooked, which is clearly upwards
pressure on the risk barometer of crypto, which is ETH BTC. And potentially we could even be going
into a dollar bear market for many years ahead. That doesn't mean that the dollar is just going
to nuke to zero.
It just means it's going to have lower highs and lower lows, right? Lower highs from the COVID
blowout and obviously lower lows from where it is now. So that's a lot of tailwinds for crypto
itself and obviously ETH BTC itself, right? As the higher out on the risk curve sort of asset.
So yeah, I just thought that would be interesting to note
and see how much more explosive of a rally we can get on it
when the DXY trends towards the low 90s
or potentially even taps below it.
I think that level that I'm talking about
where you've got resistance on that chart
around 0.44 to 0.057 if you clear 0.058 sorry
convincingly then i think you're going to have a monstrous rally on ethbtc so that could
potentially happen all this year because i'm just expecting a higher low on ethbtc here until bitcoin
you know finds that range that it needs to fulfill at 138 to 182.
Basically, the old season range that it's going to be in.
And yeah, ETHPTC could really easily shoot up past those 2021 highs this year.
So we'll just have to monitor that.
But that's going to be extremely lucrative for the altcoin market.
We just haven't had these conditions
for like three plus years now.
And I was here for the last cycle
trading that insane euphoria.
It was ridiculous.
And we've still had probably even better opportunities
than the last bull market,
trading stuff on chain.
I just wonder how it's going to be like
when you have this much tailwind pressure
on the risk barometer chart,
which is ETH BTC.
I don't know.
I think it's going to be wild.
Yeah, I think sole BTC
has a chance to going back
to range highs, man.
Definitely. I think both of those assets
should go at least
to fresh local
highs against Bitcoin. I wouldn't be
surprised to see all-time highs against it. They're just so
much smaller in market cap.
Yeah.
So the current
cycle high
for Sol is 0.003.
And then the all-time high for Sol BTC is 0.0046.
That's because we've had Bitcoin dominance uptrending for three years, right?
And this is the first time that it's basically topped.
I think you're going to put in a lower high at best.
The conditions are getting too
positive to take more risk,
basically.
Yeah, and usually
once BTC
dominance starts to actually go into a
downtrend, it's typically
lasted about
a year or so.
And yeah, I think BTC actually makes an all-time high man
um but again it's just like the road to get there is uh going to take some time but uh after they
go into price discovery man that is when like all the uber drivers are going to be forced to buy these assets instead of just holding XRP, man.
I think some people honestly give retail such a bad take.
They consider retail to just be these people that buy XRP and that's it.
buy xrp and that's it and i don't think that's the case man um last cycle we had people
And I don't think that's the case, man.
bridging to to avax and the cycle before that people were using bitconnect and they were using
uh these these cloud mining ponzi schemes these llm schemes like cloudflare and USI Tech. I think it was called USI Tech.
Let me look that up real quick.
Pretty sure it was, yeah, USI Tech.
Man, that was something else.
There's actually like a real-life company called USI Technologies,
but this was a hash flare.
It was like a hash flare ripoff.
I'm pretty sure X is like about a rug, by the way.
It's not working on desktop.
And yeah.
Let's hear from Matt. This is gnarly. Yeah, I i was gonna pass it on over to matt
but uh i think we cooked pretty nice today man
so i'm just gonna pass it on over to matt
and then i'm gonna wrap up here man
and uh save the juice for future streams man
matt what's going on man
i'm glad you're back from vacation
or at least i hope you're back from vacation, man.
How are you feeling, man?
I think that company that we've been discussing here on this show, IREN, is about to pull off a gnarly move similar to MSTR, in my opinion.
Oh, it just did.
No, I think it's going a lot higher, man.
I think IRN is going to the three-digit territory.
Whoa, whoa, whoa, okay.
Let me stop you there.
Matt, Matt, you can't stop a Russian war tank, man.
The thing is, man, it's really hard to put a valuation within AI and crypto infrastructure.
It's actually really easy, but okay.
At least it's difficult for me, Matt.
All right, but this is the really, let's talk Iron real fast.
Because you compared it, we might lose the space, so let's talk Iron real fast.
And you compared it to MSTR.
Back in November, MSTR, like there was only a handful of names, including Mike Alfred, who who said this thing is having a blow off top i was
openly asking like is this is this strategy cycle top look at this look at this thing it's going
straight up parabolic everyone's talking about people are trying to get their grandma to buy it
over thanksgiving like uh sailor is doing the rounds on cnb, every single anecdotal and technical sign that you wanted,
not to mention its MNAV was like, what, three and a half, four plus, like every single sign
that you wanted, whether you were technical or valuation or just anecdotal, was all screaming
like, this is pretty parabolic and I think it needs a long consolidation. I'm not saying that's
the case with iron right here here It just had a wonderful earnings
But let's also keep it realistic
It went 5x in 5 months
That's impressive, that's amazing
But expecting the next 5x to come in another 5 months
That's okay, that's hard
You're running into the law of law
Sure it can absolutely go higher come in another five months, that's okay. That's hard. You're running into the law of law.
Sure, it can absolutely go higher. But as Donnie would say, money probably is going to find cheaper options, cheaper valuations farther out the risk curve. So sure, yeah, you can make money
in iron. And I'm sure people who timed it well with strategy made money this year too.
But it's lagged other names.
And that's my only point for that.
But I shared up in the nest.
I totally agree with Donnie.
This is a beautiful little setup right here, right now.
We had that little for Bitcoin.
We had that little 10%, 12% correction.
And it's just a beautiful little
bull flag. Now everyone's back from holiday, from summer, back from vacay, refreshed, ready to go.
We have an easy catalyst for everyone to get all hyped up about. I'm not even sure if the
Bureau of Labor Statistics is even allowed to report bearish news, the brand new guy
under Trump, but we're going to have some labor and jobs news tomorrow and Friday, and I expect
it to come in pretty good. In fact, it almost doesn't matter what it comes in as, Jerome Powell
is still going to cut. Jobs data could come in solid. He's going to stick
to their plan and cut. Jobs data could come in weak. And they might consider like, maybe we even
need to make the next Fed cut even bigger. So it's a win-win either way. But I almost don't
even care because one month of jobs data, you should not swing your entire portfolio or net worth about.
It's such a one-off.
The bigger news, the bigger picture was we just finished earnings season, and the biggest and best companies all crushed it.
The economy is crushing it.
You had seven of seven of the magnificent seven all beat earnings, and that doesn't happen
very often at all. So you had a hell of a quarter following a previous hell of a quarter.
We got to say, keep big picture. This market is going up. The point of these there,
gold is showing you the way. As goes gold, so goes Bitcoin. It's only a matter of time.
As goes gold, so goes Bitcoin. It's only a matter of time.
So, yeah, I already did all my buying under $112, but this is just such an easy setup right here.
And Thursday and Friday could be the catalyst for the complete reversal.
for the complete reversal.
Man, I'm going to go ahead and wrap up the space.
It's kicking people out now and it's not letting people back in,
but here's the deal, man.
Let's pick up this conversation back tomorrow or on Friday,
but either or I want to thank you, Matt and Donnie,
for joining me up here.
Guys, if this is
your first time tuning in feel free to give us a follow we go live here throughout the week start
time is between 4 30 p.m esc to 4 45 p.m esc follow because bitcoin account follow donnie
follow my personal profile follow matt if you guys want uh to check out our trading terminal
links to that are in our bio and also if you want to join our Inner Circle Alpha group, link to that is also in our bio.
Feel free to DM us with any questions in regards to any of our premium packages.
And of course, guys, these spaces are recorded as always.
So see you on the next one.
Apologies that I have to wrap up the space a bit shorter than I would like to.
It's just spaces are actively rugging, kicking people out, not letting people back in.
And yeah, X is just being not good right now.
So either way, guys, take care.
God bless you all.
See you on the next one.
Peace.
