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Market Talk- NEW LOWS FOR BTC AND STOCKS SOON?! BIG WEEK?!
Recorded: March 3, 2026 Duration: 1:50:42Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.ご視聴ありがとうございました Thank you. Music you
open up the limit
reach the top but still you gotta learn how to keep it.
Hit the wheel and double the stakes.
I drive a wide open like a bat out of hell.
You scratch the gate.
Try us again.
Going for the back of the yard.
Nothing gonna stop it. there's nothing that's strong
So close now, we're nearly at the brink
So we'll shine
Ooh yeah
Welcome to the limits
Take it maybe one step more
The power keeps still playing
So we better win it Thank you. Oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, Oh Thank you. Thank you. what's going on guys naka evan how are you guys welcome back to market talk brought to you by bb
hope you're all doing okay hope you're all doing all right happy tuesday or wednesday
wherever you are i'm feeling great feeling fantastic and uh i think there's going to be a buying opportunity here soon, honestly.
We have the S&P and the Q's.
Earlier today, they retested their yearly lows.
And I kind of wonder, what's going to happen to the broader markets once these things actually do break their support?
do break their support. And typically, at least once a year, the equity markets, the S&P, the Qs,
there's always some sort of 10 plus percent pullback. And we were discussing this on
yesterday's show. How is crypto going to react? And it's kind of an anomaly whenever you have one market doing something that the other market isn't.
Right. What I mean by that is there are many instances where the equity market goes up.
Crypto doesn't do anything.
And the equity market goes down and crypto doesn't do anything or it even goes up.
We discussed this during yesterday's show.
Second half of 2023 we saw
crypto actually rallying whereas equities were pulling back that was insane and uh earlier this
year we saw things like gold and silver going parabolic and i actually do believe gold and silver
are also bouncing from their lows um you have oil chatting as well and crypto's not really doing much after uh
retesting range highs yet again and uh rejecting from them so there's another thing that we've
developed here on the show which is it's not about there aren't enough sellers there's just
not enough buyers right now to break us out of this range and usually god man i mean i don't want to sound like too much of a bear but usually when you
have um resistance so much i mean eventually you just make new lows at some point um and if you do
break out at times it's just this marginal high we've been range bound for for about four weeks now and
the last time we were in a tight compressed range was uh after those uh prior lows in november and
we were range bound between 82 to 92k 93k and then we made that slightly marginal high at $97, $98k.
And there just wasn't enough, there really wasn't enough buyers to get us towards that $100k plus mark,
which many people thought we were just going to blast through that.
I mean, even I thought that at some point.
But you have to take what the market presents to you.
And right now, there is a small possibility that an AI echo bubble could occur.
You have things like Venice and Ray that have been running.
I'm not really aware of anything else that's been chatting in the AI space.
of anything else that's been chatting in the ai space maybe i'm missing a name but uh as far as
Maybe I'm missing a name.
some as far as some other names that have been having some volatility uh river seems like it's
bottomed but i am probably never gonna buy that token probably not right now i think it had its
run um you also have random dead vc coins pumping like a veil for whatever reason i'm not sure who
is still buying modularity tokens if uh if i'm being honest man i think that was a narrative that
could have been big but the market just did not care and by the time you had all these other modularity tokens come out you started to
see things like with and popcat and I think boom also came out during that
time you also have X pl up on the day gosh when you when you when you look at
charts like X pl just from a charting perspective, you're like, all right, this thing is down 90%.
It's been consolidating for a minute.
What do you do after that, right?
We saw things like Sui and Sei repeat that same pattern.
But the supply mechanics for this thing are just so much more brutal than how those tokens were back then.
And the context of the market conditions were completely different.
In 2023, you had the pre-halving year, which is usually extremely bullish, which precedes an election year, which is usually bullish.
And this thing basically came out at the picotop of uh the market near the
top of the market last year had a little run and just got it just got its ass handed to it man and
there's so many there's so many coins right now trying to capitalize on this whole stable coin
narrative but that thing has just come and gone honestly it's just come and gone and I don't
even think there's like I don't think there's a token yet in the market that would benefit from
stable coin usage going up at all um tvl is typically a larp it's always the larp people
talk about tvl on rwas on this chain or whatever but that doesn't mean
anything at all you can just park stables in some DeFi protocol and that doesn't mean that
people are all of a sudden going to be buying shitters on that L1 or L2 you look at Arbitrum
there's nothing going on in Arbitrum. There's nothing going on in Optimism.
There's nothing going on in AVAX, nothing going on in Sui,
but yet they have all these LARP metrics like TVL.
So TVL doesn't mean a damn thing.
I don't think it ever has.
Aave has a ton of TVL, and Aave has not hit an all-time high in half a decade.
TVL has been up and to the right, but it hasn't hit an all-time high in half a decade.
That's unreal when you think about it.
It's been five years, man. Five years.
That's quite insane.
But I'll tell you one thing that would benefit from stablecoin usage is probably Robinhood. You could actually send stables in and out of Robinhood. They should have a TVL for Hood, honestly. They should have a TVL for Robinhood.
for Robin Hood. But yeah, it seems like oil is doing its thing like it did in 2022. That's what
happened a little bit after the Ukraine war got started. We did have somewhat of a bounce.
Midterm years, you do usually have like a late Q1 rally, which we might be experiencing right now.
But if we just look at the last time that we
were in a range for about a month or so which was late q4 of last year you usually make a marginal
higher high um which perhaps proceed proceeds the s p hitting an all-time high perhaps the s&p makes a gap up 71 7200 and btc makes that marginal local
high at 74 75 and uh on chain continues to have some breadth and we're also seeing ai xbt catch
somewhat um of a bit on the lower time frame but uh i got evan up here got knock up here we're
going to talk some shop if you guys want to come up, just hit that request button.
I just ask that.
You don't be a freak.
Just don't be a freak, and I'll bring you up, man.
But before we get started, guys, if you guys can go ahead and show some love to the space,
best way to do that is by clicking the spaces tab.
Once you guys do that, you'll see that nice link that says x.com slash i slash spaces
hit the like button hit the repost button brings more people into the space and um yeah i'm gonna
go ahead and pass it on over to the guys if you guys missed yesterday's show by the way feel free
to tune into that um all the shows are recorded as always and do yourselves a favor as well with this one.
If you guys want to catch last Wednesday's space, we had so many clippable moments
and there were a lot of weird people that were saying,
ah, these spaces are toxic.
Why would anyone tune into a Bitcoin space?
Like, why would anyone tune into a Bitcoin space?
I have no idea what that even means, man.
We just like to talk shop and talk price action.
And sometimes people get emotional and they throw plates and forks.
And they stand up from their tables and shout from the top of their lungs.
That was an interesting moment, man.
But I'll pass it on over first to Naka.
Naka, I see you want to ask us a
question bro the question that you usually start uh the show with brother i'll pass it on yeah i
i just wanted to say um you know good evening um at old dgens um how's the bull market going
especially to my little dgens that are in dubai or any of the other gulf states i hope the
bull market is going well for you i hear it's uh bull season for shot head drones uh in some of
those places right now so i hope uh i hope all the crypto bros in the gulf went long on toilet paper
on toilet paper and ammunition.
and uh ammunition
Yeah, and I know, like,
the UA had some attacks on some of these buildings,
and I think the airport shut off for a little bit.
I mean, I hope they can escape, man.
I wouldn't really be there right now.
And you had that London Real guy, Brian whatever.
He used to be pretty hot a few years ago, man.
He was all over the place, like the Joe Rogan guy, the Joe Rogan podcast.
I forgot his last name, but...
Brian Rose.
Brian Rose.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
And then he came out with his like sleeveless
flannel shirt um like just open bare-chested and all and uh yeah it was a pretty weird sight and
he was just like everything is fine everything is fine and then you had all the other like
Dubai influencers say that everything is fine everything
is fine um but i'm sorry man when you have residential buildings and stuff getting hit
i don't i don't think that's fine at all dude i don't think that's fine um that's that's what the
boss i mean if this thing escalates if this thing continues to escalate you know we have major
um supply chain disruptions as a result of the closing of um the sea passage uh between iran
and the uae um you know that that could be like this bear markets version of the of the ukraine invasion right because i remember in
2022 when that all went down um people were saying oh it's fine don't worry about it you know like
there was a war there was a little bit of a dip because of the war and some people paper-handed
and now that's all over and it's all going to be fine and you know then because because, because what happened is it took a little bit of time for the supply chain disruptions to start hitting,
for inflation to start actually, you know, ticking up.
I mean, if the oil price really does go up a lot as a result of this, then, yeah, I mean, we could definitely see that happening.
We could say we could see rates going up rather than down.
Oh my god, dude.
I mean, for the bulls, this war has to be short.
This has to be a short, in-and-out, fast operation.
And, you know, honestly, I
Do think I do think that people are underestimating the possibility that it goes really badly
I mean, I I speak to Balaji
Occasionally and he he has you know, he is a bit of a he's a bit of a sort of perma bear on almost everything
in a way except crypto, but he basically thinks that
This could go quite badly um and yeah we'll see
we'll see you know um it's kind of under control at the moment but basically it's not really what
the bulls wanted to see here right it's you didn't really want to see a war right you can never say
i'm a bull i'm along all these assets oh and there's a massive war with Iran and
You know, they're like shutting down
The Straits of homers
Um, and and this makes me bullish on my on my shit coin bags
I mean if you're if you're really saying that you're fucking delusional, right?
If you have shit coin bags
in bags and i'm basically counting all of crypto as a type of shit coin here
And i'm basically counting all of crypto as a type of shit coin here
um you don't want to see the straits of humus get shut down which is kind of what's happening now
and trump is trying to like cope and he's tweeting that oh you know america's going to have this
special agency that's going to underwrite the you know the shipping insurance because private
insurers won't insure it well yeah, yeah, maybe, but that's not exactly
bullish, is it right? The U S government is stepping up to say they're going to be the sort
of insurer of last resort for the maritime market. It's not exactly bullish, right? You've got to Yeah, war at the start isn't really great if you're positioned long.
After the initial reaction, and we saw that with the Ukraine war, and that took like 10 months nine to 10 months
and uh in previous wars same thing usually have a spike up and then you know it's just
a drawn out downtrend except now with i mean it depends it depends whether this is because now
america's calling it a special combat operation, right?
So if it really is just a special operation
It's in wham bam. Thank you, ma'am and out and it's all done
Then this could be this could be bullish, right? This could be you know It could be a sort of short and bear market shallow dips, you know, etc. But
It's a bit of a gamble, right?
Yeah.
I don't really think it's going to draw out.
It's going to be like a drawn-out
war, to be honest.
I think he would just go
full scorched earth,
frankly.
And it would be over with pretty fast and I'm not
really a believer in drawn-out bear markets anymore not under a Trump regime
at least to the upside and the downside since he's gotten elected it's proven to be insanely volatile
except this range that the queues have been in I'm not sure what's going on with that the QQQ has
been in a massive range for almost five months now and since I've been in markets since late 2017 i've never seen the queues be in such a
massive range where it's just a a stock picker's market it's been a stock picker's market if you
weren't in um if you weren't in nvidia beta if you weren't in uh in hut and q4 if you weren't in NVIDIA beta if you weren't in in hut and q4 if you weren't
in micron if you weren't in SanDisk or some of these like staples or whatever
target coca-cola it hasn't really you haven't really done much in the stock
market maybe there's a few names that i'm missing but for the most part those are the names that have rallied after um the queues the queues topped
in october of last year um and these names gave you time to to go in during these dips
um but those names kind of look topped man those names look look topped um so even in stocks
like right now i just don't really see a big trade outside of outside of what anybody can say
oh just dollar cost average just dollar cost average all right we get it boomer um
but i'm looking for momentum plays, man.
And these kind of plays usually only happen every, like, three quarters.
Every two to three quarters, there's usually some sort of momentum play.
And as far as crypto, I think that name's going to be Hyperliquid.
is going to be hyper liquid um i think hyper liquid is going to be like the potential for it to be
the the the same kind of performance that solana had um the previous having cycle
um where it just outperforms everything within uh within the top 10 top 20 top 30 top 50 and um
10, top 20, top 30, top 50. And hopefully, hopefully, hopefully like top 50, top 100,
those names get rearranged. And there are some, some, some other plays and not just like
new coins that come out into the market and they have this overinflated valuation
that VCs benefited from in private markets.
Like, if you take a look at Sui, for example, right,
from the bottom to the top, it wasn't really that much of a gain.
It's like what?
Like an 11x, 12x at best?
And in crypto terms, that's not really great because you could have honestly just
bought in hood and outperformed the shit out of it um from q4 of 2023 all the way up until
q4 of 2025 hood outperformed the daylights out of sui um at a higher market cap as well and that just goes to show that there
are times where higher cap assets could outperform lower cap assets in a in a period of of risk on
um i think that's where a lot of people in markets get it confused lower market cap does not mean
in markets get it confused lower market cap does not mean that that beta is going to outperform
the alpha you know and in this case btc eth so are the alphas um and everything else is really just
um data naka what names are you um looking at to buy if uh say btc bottoms out um later this quarter or early or early yeah well
i mean we've been we've been looking at a couple of names here at um nakamoto's capital you're
gonna say usdc and all that crap aren't you no no no come on though we've been we've been looking
at a couple of names um you know hey do you want to know a joke, Naka?
Yeah, go ahead.
You know, when I play golf, and for those that don't know,
I actually became a four handicap in less than 60 days
when I was playing golf last summer.
A four handicap, which is honestly elite. I would wear two trousers.
And why do you think that is, Naka?
I don't know why.
In case I hit a hole-in-one.
In case I hit a hole-in-one.
All right.
Yeah, no, we've been...
That has to be a good one, bro.
You laugh.
We've been looking at a couple of names here
though at uh nakamoto's capital llc um we've been looking at um swiss francs that's actually quite
a bullish uh investment i think in this environment um i mean obviously there's um you know i think
physical metals mostly are sort of up a little bit too much, but I think certain municipal bonds look quite bullish.
Naka, is it okay?
Naka, I'm going to ask you a question.
How does it feel to be a citizen of Great Britain in these times?
Have you thought about transferring all of your money to the franc?
Is that on the table?
I think realistically,
being absolutely serious,
I currently have money in pounds,
but I do transfer between.
I do do forex trading for my savings,
essentially going between pounds and dollars.
If I really think the pound is about to completely shit the bed,
I would go into dollars.
There are certain things where you need to have money in local currency.
If you want to rent a flat,
they will need to see proof of savings,
and you can't show them some dollars you've got in a foreign account and you show it to them in a, in a
UK account.
But I think basically moving between pounds and dollars is probably still okay for the
moment.
Um, but I do think people need to consider something like Swiss francs as a sort of, um,
haven, you know, a safe haven type currency at the moment. I mean, right now, geopolitics looks
haven, you know, a safe haven type, type currency at the moment.
a bit shit. People will tend to go to safety in times of, you know, conflict, and the dollar
is probably the safest thing to be in at the moment. People do talk about China and stuff
like that, but you've got to be very careful with
china westerners don't understand china very well so it's easy to get ripped off um china is not a
particularly free place so they will find ways to steal your money um you know legally right but
like i mean if you if you looked at china and you said well china, China is doing really well in manufacturing and stuff like that,
and so you just bought the Chinese stock market, you would have been completely wrecked over the past 10 years.
So, I mean, yeah, like I think dollars, if you're a European, be willing to switch between your European currency,
whether it's pounds or euros or something else, and the dollar.
And I think maybe the Swiss franc, and I think those three things, plus you've
got precious metals when they're not too overvalued.
They are kind of in a bit of an overvaluation phase though now.
Um, and I, I'm kind of looks to me like silver is done.
I'm not sure about gold, but you know, gold could also be done, right?
gold could also be done right it's up a lot um so yeah i mean i think we just have to wait and see
It's up a lot.
what happens as a result of the new iran conflict um i'd like anyone any anyone on the timeline
who's who's showing you to buy crypto now is either trolling retarded or both um like you've got you've got chimp you know telling people to
buy like don't you can't sell bitcoin now you're selling into netanyahu's bids it's like yeah chimp
you know i remember this i remember this one from last bet market you know um oh boy yeah
literally repeating repeating the same behaviors.
Remember, Naka, a good captain goes down with his ship.
Oh, man, he got absolutely raped.
Remember when he did that safe, low-leverage long from, like,
remember when he did that safe low leverage long from like i think it was about 29k and he was
targeting like 39k or 40k and his liquidation was at 20k so there's no way it can go under 20k and
then he literally got liquidated the wrong like i mean he's doing it again he's he's like it'll never go below you know
40 50k you know don't sell now you're selling into netting yahoo's bids it's like it's just
the same thing over and over again um and i i i genuinely like i was a little bit uncertain
for a couple of weeks as to whether this actually maybe could be the bottom, but just the way people are behaving with it. And people are still posting all time high targets. You know, they're still coping,
they're still saying we're still in a bull market. I mean, not everybody, but some people still are,
right? I genuinely do think we are just on a little stop off before the next leg down.
And I, you know, depending on how the war goes i think
will tell us how that next leg will come if the war all gets kind of cleaned up right like if iran
just turns into venezuela 2.0 and basically they surrender they say you, we'll do what we'll do what you want. Just make the bomb stop.
Um, then I think basically we will probably get a pop, right? We'll probably get a pop.
Bitcoin probably revisits like 75 to 80 K. Um, people will start saying that it's a new bull
market or that it was a bull market all along, whatever. And then we'll probably get some
redistribution. And then later in the year, we can have some downside if the war escalates you know if bad
stuff starts happening inflation oil price getting out of control that could be the catalyst for a
relatively fast um next leg down in my opinion evan what are you saying bro oh what's going on man
yeah so a lot of good points did you see uh yeah did you see that uh androgyny and the asu frat
leader made peace to conclude the mogwars no no dude i haven't been
following the the news are you serious about that yeah dude they made peace asu frat leader and
number one ranked chad androgynic um are best buddies that's that's great i mean i
you know i mean not to get off the topic of crypto, but man, for a young man today, it's tough, man.
You got to look like a freaking, you know, I'm not even going to get into it, but it's crazy the culture that has happened in the West.
But anyway, so getting in the crypto right now, what Naga was saying, you know, in terms of comparing this to kind of the first Russia invasion of the Ukraine, it's similar, man.
I mean, it adds up in the timeline, too, very similar, kind of, you know, exactly kind of four years later.
And, you know, I think that so far we haven't seen crypto kind of reflect it yet, but I think it potentially will.
it yet, but I think it potentially will. I still think, you know, just based on purely on charts,
technical perspective, that you still have a really good shot of 74, 75 K, which is going to
be a huge, excuse me, area. But I think from there, you likely would probably reject from that
and then potentially, um, kind of come lower. So I think, I think it's similar to may and also
similar to may of 2022, also similar to some rhyming with both of that, like Russia and then the May area.
I'm not a geopolitical expert.
I have no clue what will end up happening with this.
Obviously, we hope everybody's going to be okay.
We hope Dubai ends up no more issues there and all that.
I mean, it's really sad, obviously. So you got to, you know,
you got to approach this with a, you know, you got to approach this with some sensitivity,
obviously, you know, it's a very, very tough situation. I would guess, you know, I would be
more optimistic. I would guess this could be generally over within a week, hopefully.
But I don't think that's going to be necessarily enough to prevent, you know, the S&P 500 from
correcting some more, the NASDAQ from
correcting some more, and potentially Bitcoin from correcting down to, my guess, would be somewhere
between, you know, 42 to 50K, you know, some point within the next, you know, three to six months.
But in all likelihood, if I had to guess, you know, it probably is going to be sooner rather
than later. You know, the thing I mean, there's mixed views on this, obviously. But the thing that
I like to look at and talk about is kind of the fact that MicroStrategy bottomed earlier than
Bitcoin did in 2022. So, you know, it bottomed in May at 22 while it took Bitcoin a lot longer.
Also, ETH bottomed in June at 22 while it took Bitcoin, you know, a lot longer. And yeah, I think
a lot of things kind of what you're saying to Wabi, a lot of things point to a potentially earlier bottom still.
You know, I think this conflict is less fear will create less of a sell off than what Russia did or what you could argue.
There are different things, obviously, the Fed raising rates and all that.
But, you know, in terms of like what's what's in a bull market right now, I agree with NACA.
I think gold and silver, they don't look very attractive, at least against the S&P 500. I keep some gold, but if I had to pick between gold and
S&P 500, it's not the most attractive thing. Energy, I still think, has got at least a few
more months, like XLE. I mean, you could argue this could be kind of a sell the news situation,
but I still wouldn't bet against XLE. I wouldn't bet against you know xle i wouldn't bet
against that just yet um that's energy other things i mean i think consumer staples i think
international like things like em you know stuff like that those etfs probably will continue to
up from this and p500 um you know people are people are getting really like a lot of the
super cycle folks at the end of last year, early this year, before the crap Bitcoin crash, they were pretty, they've been getting a few of
those accounts have been getting really bullish on TLT buying calls for that. So I just found that
interesting. So people are, I mean, they are moving away from Bitcoin a little bit, but
probably not enough to, you know, really be a clear bottom just yet. But I think more of the pain has happened. The
majority of the pain kind of has happened already. You know, in addition, I would think
when Naku is saying it was interesting, too, if they are forced to raise rates or something,
I don't think that'll happen. But I think you could have longer pauses. I think the TLT may
be sideways for and I think generally could be range bound for years. You know, I don't think
that things it's kind of too good to be true with interest rates. Like I think they will come down, sideways for and i think generally could be range bound for years you know i i don't think that
things it's kind of too good to be true with interest rates like i think they will come down
but they're not going to come down like crazy until you see asset prices drop a hell of a lot
and i don't think that's going to happen until you see a recession and i don't think your university
is a recession until at least you know later this decade early next decade I mean, what to do right now, you know, I mean, safe stuff, you know,
diversified portfolio, you know, that's it's more risk off, you know, that type of situation.
I'm in energy. I'm in Berkshire Hathaway. I'm in like just boring stuff, a little bit of gold,
some S&P 500. Like, I mean, I'm starting to DCA, like scale into Bitcoin, you know, over the next
like six to eight months. But my like clear areas, my clear momentum changes to like convert, you know, things like gold into Bitcoin, things like XLE into Bitcoin.
That hasn't happened yet.
I think that will happen, though, within like four months.
I'm just waiting for some momentum changes and some signs.
So we're still in a safer, safer environment, I would say.
Base, what about Hyper liquid bro i haven't looked at that man i mean there's always going to be a
bull market kind of somewhere within within crypto um let me look at that and get back to
you i have not looked at that chart yeah geez man um yeah oh boy i'm looking at a certain altcoin it's down like it just
rugged um it rugged a few hours ago by 90 this thing was trading at like 500 mil, whatever it is.
It's that power protocol thing where I was like, bro, how the hell is this thing just chatting relentlessly?
And the timeline isn't even talking about it.
There were like some gambling RWA type thing on ETH. it was the strangest thing ever man
prometheus how are you how are you man welcome welcome
hey what's going on can you hear me
uh yeah i can i can i just gotta check you never know spaces yeah so tell us tell us how
it's like all over how everyone's gonna die and um and how people are gonna be taken out
to the woodshed and all that stuff man um well uh to evan's point i think there definitely has
to be a level of sensitivity um just with what's currently going on in the broader picture.
I most importantly want to talk about and kind of bring up with everybody is that and I think is kind of, you know, not definitely not what you want to see from the bull side is we saw VIX up at, you know, the mid to mid to high 20s earlier today.
And you still see the S&P at 6,800.
You still see the Qs floating.
And you see a lot of the market leaders still kind of floating
or in the process of what is seeming to be, you know, rolling over at the
highs. And with the VIX already elevated in a manner in which it is, and you see a lot of these,
you know, market leaders telegraphing more downside, it kind of makes me wonder,
you know, how big the volatility blowout's going to be. I've been talking about that for two or three weeks now.
At this point, you know, I mentioned volatility skew since we set the lows in December has
been very steep.
And what I mean by that is the clear lack of interest to sell volatility within the
market.
We released a lot of gamma from the options expiry at the end of February.
And I mentioned that, you know,
when you do get that release on the market, you know, that magnet at 7,000 gets removed,
you then get an accelerant within the market. You're essentially pouring fuel onto the fire
for, you know, whatever direction we then go thereafter, whether that's up to 7,200 and beyond, or whether that's below 6,800 and below. And, you know, again, I look at these charts and these charts to me are just
telegraphing really unidirectional trade. We saw today, interestingly enough, even some of the
stronger names, right? Even gold, energy, energy, a few other names that showed relative strength throughout this broader market weakness today showed weakness alongside the market when we had the open.
We saw a summer version higher. I think that makes sense.
we saw some reversion higher. I think that makes sense. And I don't want to get too much into the
geopolitical space. I don't think that's one, my expertise to talk about. I don't think you guys
need to hear me talk about it. I think a lot of it is just a complete psyop if I'm being honest.
But if I'm just looking at price, like I said, I think it's a unidirectional trade right now
in the market. I look at bonds.
Bonds look, I look at like the 10-year, I look at the 20-year TLT in particular, high
timeframe accumulation.
And it's really only a matter of time before that thing goes higher.
I'm not trying to overcomplicate the trade and like look at all the macro views and pull
in too much information and paralyze myself from longing bonds because a lot of people are going to look at
bonds. And if the bonds and if bonds trade higher, you know, rapidly, I think it's probably one of
the going to be one of the most hated trades that we're going to see in 2026. And it's going to
catch a lot of people off guard. And a lot of people have an issue with positioning in bonds because they're viewed as kind of like the boomer asset class.
You know, it's not a super sexy trade. There's a lack of interest in it, especially from the people that are generally under 40.
But I look at bonds. Bonds look fantastic. And whether or not that trade plays out in a month or six months or 12,
Bonds look fantastic.
And whether or not that trade plays out in a month or six months or 12, I think that there is, at least in my portfolio, most certainly going to be room for long bonds trade.
Gold looks a little toppy, but again, geopolitical tensions lead me to believe that I do want to be mindful that gold has the potential to go higher.
I don't think it's going to have the you know
parabola obviously that it had last year i don't think i think silver's cooked i think silver had
its once in its you know decade time in the time of the sun um and you probably forget about it
and if i had any silver exposure i would be completely rotated out of that by now
um but just looking at crypto you know it's just this super thin order book, really
disgusting, you know, uh, low vol or low volume, high volatility environment.
And market makers are just having their way with both sides of the order book right now
on the bid in the ask and just bending everybody over the trying to scalp right now.
But we are just compressing within the range.
Do I agree with Naka that we're probably going to see further downside?
And I think Evan thinks there's probably going to be more downside.
I tend to lean into that camp.
I don't see a reason where you aren't selling rips in, you know,
if we do get a rip up into like, let's say 75,
let's say it's a little
bit higher into 80, you know, I don't see why you aren't looking at that as an opportunity to,
you know, be positioned in what I believe to be a move towards the extremity to the long side,
especially if you're viewing this as a higher timeframe downtrend, right? And uptrends,
what do you do? You buy the dips in downtrends what do you do you sell the
rips and i think it's important to you know remain within that framework uh or that mental framework
rather and a lot of people too are for whatever reason i have no i literally don't understand it
um but are just continually wanting to call bottom um it's like the dude that you're playing a pickup game at like
the ymca with and for whatever reason he's just like chucking three pointers from the half uh
or yeah from you know midcourt and he's like calling three you know he's like calling it
every time and he's just like airballing it every time and you're just like dude what are you doing
you look like a clown and then they hit it one time and they're like you know what man i told you i told you and you're just like dude you are
like this is ridiculous um anyways so typically what you see with a high time frame bottom
formation forming is one of two things you see see massive capitulation, right? Black Swan event,
COVID style, 08 style, you know, you could even like 1980s, whatever, right? Black Swan
capitulation, that's those quote unquote V recoveries, right? But those only happen when
you see the entire financial markets, all of them, including crypto commodities, everything,
everything getting obliterated. Right. And there's maybe a few things that
float higher because of, you know, inverse correlations and all that, you know, all that.
But for the most part, right. That is what a capitulation bottom looks like, right? Everything getting just
obliterated, taken out to the woodshed. And the other one is a form of reaccumulation, right?
Where you have your first big initial leg down, right? What was that first big initial leg down?
It was not 10-10, mind you. 10-10 was not the first big initial leg down. I want everybody to be very,
very, very, very mindful of that. Um, really the first big initial leg down was kind of when you
came down into mid nineties and then you get the complacency shoulder, which is exactly what we had.
You then have your secondary phase, which is kind of the realization of everybody saying, oh, fuck, you know, I need to get out of my positions.
That's what you've had, you know, most recently in February, I believe.
And then what I believe is going to happen is and what we're gearing up for is another
lay down.
And that is your traditional, you know, downtrend kind of market dynamics perspective that then
leads you into the reaccumulation phase, which we are not even there, not even close to being there. And what you
generally see at those bottoming formations in that reaccumulation phase is what you see big,
big, big guys, like big positions, huge whales, massive institutions just sitting on the bid, right? And they just sit there and sit there and sit there.
And they just say, okay, you know, I will let,
or they sit on the ask, excuse me.
And they just say, everybody sell into me,
do what, dump everything you got.
And I'm just going to sit here.
And they create this massive low volatility compression
at the lows. and that signals high
time frame absorption because remember the big guys the guys that really can move these markets
what do they want to do they want to passively absorb price in a downtrend once they get to the
price that they deem worthy that they want to get their bids filled at. And then what
do they do? They create, they slowly accumulate, right? They slowly accumulate. They average their
position in. Once they get fat and happy, what have they then done? They've then generated
liquidity on the opposite end of the trade, right? They've created all this sell side liquidity.
So when the market starts to move to the upside, you're pouring gasoline onto the fire, meaning that they have to use
less capital to push price higher. Have we seen that yet? No. And if anybody tells you we've seen
that, they're a fucking idiot and they have no idea what they're talking about, right? Nobody,
right nobody we don't bottom we don't bottom because oh we tagged my fibonacci 2.222 level
or like we have this like you know super super super small sample size of you know previous
cycles and yada yada yada and whatever that garbage nonsense is or oh it's been exactly
200 and some odd bars and blah blah blah blah blah blah blah that is garbage nonsense that is
just literally like stroking an ego trying to seem smart when we bottom on a high time frame
it is one of two things and it is only one of things. It is capitulation or it is reaccumulation.
And we have seen neither.
And the reason why we have seen neither, mind you, from a capitulation standpoint, is because
when Bitcoin was selling off at the beginning of February and the end of Jan, was the entire
financial asset class capitulating alongside it, creating that quote unquote,
you know, black swan event. No, no. Okay. So it is not a V-shaped recovery bottom. We now
understand that. So that only leads us into one other camp and then as reaccumulation.
Have we seen low volatility compression where the high timeframe market makers just stack or not market makers, the high
timeframe institutions just stack limits at one location and they just pin and flatline price and
volatility. No, we've been trading between 60 K and 70 K. That's a $10,000 range. What tells you that price is pinned right now? Nothing. Have we taken out the lows
that are historically seen with a reaccumulation phase? No. Have we taken out the highs, though,
that signal that we're potentially entering into redistribution, locally speaking, and we're going
to roll over into the leg down right now? No. You're just diddling in the middle and it's a
bunch of garbage price action. All coins are just going to continue to into the leg down right now. No, you're just diddling in the middle and it's a bunch of garbage price action.
All coins are just going to continue to bleed to zero.
I'm not buying all coins until majors are bottomed
or at least until Bitcoin is bottomed.
I would never want to sit in a position
where I'm skewed from probability perspective
where I get a 5% chance of winning
and my risk to return profile does not match that.
Mind you, if you have a 5% probability of being
right, you need equal weighted asymmetry to the upside, meaning you need a 20RR trade.
Find an altcoin right now that looks like a 20RR trade. Please, please, I beg you to find one.
There's not a single one.
You can't find a single one unless you're in some cabal group chat and you're just rinsing people and you have zero morality.
You have zero ethics and zero morality and you were raised fatherless and motherless.
Right?
So because of that, I am in the camp of you be patient.
I am patient. I am patient.
I am patient.
I'm a sniper in the weeds.
I am laying in wait.
I am biding my opportunity to execute appropriately.
Until then, I'm short several equity plays. I am now hedging out the majority of my energy with SQ be supply. So I don't understand. And NVIDIA looks
like hot garbage, which is, I believe, coming down to 145 based off of my system. I believe
QQQ is coming down to 550. I believe the ES is coming down into 6300. And I look at the VIX and volatility,
and it's just now starting to unwind to the upside. And it's telegraphing that there's more.
I don't care what geopolitical factors are occurring and macro factors are occurring.
Price is telling me one thing. And I trade that. And I trade that. And I believe that.
And I trade that.
And I trade that.
And I believe that.
Because the pattern recognition, because my primal brain has, through thousands and thousands of hours of staring at a computer screen relentlessly for whatever reason, has now baked in these patterns into my subconscious, into my primal brain.
in my primal brain and is telling me that, hey, because our brains are very, very, very good at
this, right? Very good at this. Very good at recognizing patterns. Very good at understanding.
Hey, I shouldn't go over there because if I go over there, the thing's going to bite me. I'm
going to die, right? Or, hey, maybe I should stay away from that lion because if I go over to that
lion, it's going to bite my head off, right? Or, hey, I shouldn't drink that water because I'm
going to be shitting my brains out. I'm going to be dead on the side of the road tomorrow, right? Our brains are very
good at recognizing patterns and the patterns that are telling me right now in the market
are screaming to me. And I'm sure if you are unbiased in your opinion, if you look at charts
and you're a technician and you look at the winners that have won this cycle
and they have no longer and if they're looking weak and you are losing from a flows perspective
buyers within the market i.e. nvidia right the list goes on and on and on and on and on i.e.
the big one nvidia that makes up the majority of flows in the market is now looking like high time frame distribution.
I don't want to ignore that. Right. I think that the mentality that you can now buy every 5% dip within the market and get away with it, that people have been getting away with it over the
past 24 years, that regime is over. I think it is completely over for them. I don't understand
how you can be in the camp where you can buy a 5% dip when you
see volatility just starting to unwind to the upside. You're seeing what's happening in the
Middle East and you want to get in front of that train. Be my guest. I am not in that camp. And
it's not like, okay, we have been in and we had just started an uptrend and now you're getting a
pullback within the uptrend. No, you've had your uptrend. You've now had your distribution. What is the next part of the
phase? Imbalance to the downside. Find new value, right? Then reaccumulate. And if we get again,
like I said, a massive broader scale capitulation, whether it's down 6% know capitulation whether it's six down six percent from here
or whether it's down ten percent from here or whether it's down twenty percent from here
there will be opportunity believe me there always is um that's kind of where i'm at i mean bitcoin
and and crypto is a illiquid slop garbage mess that's like you're going into the crack den and there's, you know, people are fucking
in the corner and it's weird.
And those are the guys on chain right now fucking each other on Solana.
And, you know, you see the guys that are sitting on the couch with the coffee table passing
the crack pipe and they have one last rock left, you know, and they're like just trying
to get everything they can out of it, you know, and then you one last rock left you know and they're like just trying to get everything they can out of it you know and then you have the dude you know the dude upstairs that's
selling everybody the garbage like that's what crypto is right now to me like you've been at
some pretty crazy parties man i've never even seen that yeah it's i mean it is what it is and
that's like that's what crypto how I view crypto right now.
I will wait till they demolish that. Right. I'll wait till they demolish the building. Everybody
gets evicted. And then I'll wait till they build something new on it. And once they build something
new on it, then I'll like go in and I'll buy a piece of that real estate. Until then, I'm staying away
i mean yeah it does it does look sort of bad to be honest but as i as i said i think whether we get
downside quickly or slowly really depends on how the geopolitical situation plays out um i i do think that there is a risk that this does
escalate and i i i put a tweet out like i think it was either today or yesterday saying if it does
escalate i do not want to hear a single bull saying the words black swan okay how is everything a black swan man
everything is it's just it's just a form of code it's a form of code like a black swan is supposed
to be in an event that is just simply impossible to predict like a downside event that's impossible
to predict something like covid you know nobody could have predicted COVID you know six months in advance completely out of nowhere right
you know geopolitical problems in Iran and not a black swan right you know the
the you know the sort of Iran versus Gulf states conflict has been simmering
for a long time and it's obviously at a you know it's reached a critical point not not just that so a
smaller conflict but the larger conflict between America and China and that this
you know this sort of Gulf conflict between you know Iran and the Gulf
States and Israel is really you know just connects into that bigger
conflict so this is this is not a black swan um it's it's the this is basically why you are allowed
to make money as a bull right you're allowed to make money as a bull because you know things like
this can happen and your payment for being long is payment for taking that risk.
This is the risk.
Can I get in here?
Is it all right if I get in here?
What's up, Walter?
What's up, man?
Hey, man.
So, you know, I was listening to Prometheus, just very entertaining.
And there was a few things that you said,
and I don't know if you're saying this out of frustration or,
but I think that the general thesis for a bull market is still intact.
I still think that the debt buyers are going to be rewarded here.
Nothing has changed.
They're still going to print money.
They're still going to pump the market.
They're still going to devalue the dollar.
The playbook is intact.
You know, what I've seen is, you know, and I've been, again, not to throw my dick on the table, but I've been
in markets for over 25 years. And one thing that is certain is that every five, 10 years,
it's different, right? You cannot predict this shit. I do think that we are in a extremely
narrative type of market, right? We have a president that sticks his nose into
every aspect. And you saw, you see it all the time, right? Today, you saw him say,
you know, obviously, these people are very, they're very brilliant people. Scott Bettsen
is a brilliant dude. He has surrounded, Trump has surrounded himself with really smart, ballsy people. And they know that they need this market up, but they need it at the right time.
all the fucking dirty work right now, right? January, February, March. And then they're
going to pretty this thing up come late spring, summer, early fall, because that's the only
chance that they have. The other thing that I've seen is like, what has happened to,
and maybe I'm an old guy and I'm old-fashioned but what's happened to just dca
right why did why does everybody have to try to find a bottom like i've been trying to find
bottoms for fucking 25 years i never have found a bottom i never will find a bottom have you have
you tried going for like a gay bar in san francisco because i think
there's quite a few of them there i mean i don't know if uh i should laugh at that joke or
i mean i'm not speaking from personal experience you obviously just what people have told me but
naka you were really on top of that one naka but volatility when let me just ask you i got a
not knock knock you were really on top of that one knocker
question for you if not when you say like a freight train i was just gonna for a dc mike my view on
dcaing would be dc now until like october because the average bear market's usually like 8 to 12
months would you agree with that like no no no no no, no, no. There's no, there's no rules.
That's the, that's like, look, I'm, I'm a dude in his early fifties. I have daughters that are
in their early twenties. I know people, uh, that are, you know, I have a stepdaughter that's 30.
I'm very in tuned with this 30 year old-old crowd, okay? And I think as my
generation, we're the bridge generation to connect the 30-year-olds with the fucking real boomers.
The real boomers are the 70-year-olds, the Jamie Diamonds and the Larry Finks. And it's our job to
understand, you know, the future, you know, 30 year olds, and, and then just phasing out these
boomers. I see it more as old money versus new money. And I just think that the younger generation,
they have been felt with this, this, this powerful thing, which is social media,
felt with this this this powerful thing which is social media they're forced to listen to
idiots you know when i was 30 years old i wasn't forced to listen to an idiot we knew who the
idiots were and we they wouldn't even bother to fucking even say anything they knew they were
idiots but social media has elevated you know so you have some dumbass that's got a net worth of fucking 16,000 and
he's been elevated to somebody that has a net worth of 10 million. And social media many times
equates those two. In fact, sometimes it elevates the person that, you know, because he's got a lot
of followers and he's tech savvy, all of a sudden somebody that has a hundred thousand
followers you automatically think that this fucking person knows anything and yeah they know
how to get get followers but they have do they have real market experience do they have they
made money consistently over years that's all true but i how does that relate to when the dca though or like the dca so my so
my my definition of dcaing is very very simple right is when let's say you really have conviction
in something all right whatever it is if it's a fucking altcoin if it's a stock whatever it is
right and and it could be you know like, like lack of conviction, right? Like if you want
to short something, right? Like I've been shorting Sandisk. I'm a moron, right? I'm a fucking idiot.
And I saw this thing and it was up like 40, 50%. But you know, I know that I'm always wrong. I go
into a trade thinking I'm a moron, even though I've been a moron for
a quarter century, I'm still a moron. And I don't know how far this is going to go. So I short a
position that I feel comfortable that I can add several times. And then as I'm more wrong,
I increase my increments, but I double up my size you know what i mean and i'll do the same
let me let me i want to i want to answer that i mean you're basically doing the martin girl
strategy i mean yeah yeah but the thing is like that's really really dangerous because why why
is it dangerous because like the way the way that, I mean, before I did that,
I'm not gonna say I didn't do it before, but now like I only,
I only size up until a certain point. So if I said, okay,
I'm not only short 50 K or whatever.
And if I already made the whole position,
I won't put new money in because that like what if it keeps going
going going off yeah you stop you stop and you you stop and you feel the fucking pain
the pain of being wrong the thing the thing the thing with martingale strategy is 50 of the time
it works every time i so i don't even know who these this person is that you're talking about
i've been doing this for 25 years so i've been, this is how I buy into something or when I short into something.
It's just that way.
Like you're going to run out of money and it's going to go further than you think.
But at least at that point, you are very close to either a bottom or a top and things don't go forever.
Right.
Have you,
have you ever heard of,
have you ever heard of this strategy called risk management?
Sure.
Because the thing is,
is let me,
I want to see if you agree with me,
Naka,
like Martin girl strategy,
like people that do that,
like they have a high success rate,
but once in a while that's how you
blow up like i've seen a lot of traders well the martingale strategy is guaranteed to work if you
have an infinite bankroll right because when you when you screw up you just kind of double your
bet size and you keep doing that until you're right um but but the problem is if your bank
roll is finite um you know you get you get caught in the left tail.
So I don't think you have to have a huge bankroll.
I think you have to determine before you take the position, what are your increments?
What is the amount of capital that I intend to – when I started shorting SanDisk, and I got obliterated, right?
I just started – i've cut my loss
down why did you why did you short sandisk like like do you also like like do you sleep do you
sleep on railway lines like and you know look at the timetable for like when the train's gonna
come run you over? That's not very nice. Why are you shorting
Sandisk in an AI bull market?
What are you doing, bro?
You should
offer trading tips
so people can reverse
them and make money.
Where do you think Sandisk
is going to
end up being?
We gave the top for Sandisk on the show after giving the call in November, man,
at like 200 bucks.
And Levinson was on the show, and he asked me, like,
so where do you think Sandisk is going?
And this was like right on our Tuesday show on February 3bruary 3rd as it topped out and i'm like yeah
this thing is done it's done for like the time to get into that was basically months ago not
when everyone's starting to talk about it and yeah it's just been cooked ever since it's not
really going to do anything unless you see things like um i would say micron um go into price discovery and micron
looks like a blow-off top man that is a blow-off top if i've ever seen one um for stocks and this
looks bearish as hell bro sorry sorry to go ahead no it's it's it's done for um i mean i think i
still think it's going to go into price discovery at some point. Yeah, but we're saying that now.
You're saying that now, but when it was at about $700,
everybody was saying it was going to go at $1,000.
No, no, no.
Here on this show, we were pretty embarrassed.
Okay, maybe not on this genius show.
No, I'm not a genius.
I'm on these chats, I'm on all that fucking shit, right?
Because it gives me conviction.
Because if everybody disagrees with me, that means I know I'm doing something right.
But, you know, yes, I'm a moron.
I saw it around the 400 range, 450, and I started.
I started shorting.
I knew it was going to go against me.
I didn't know it was going to go this much against me.
But why do I do it?
I don't know. Maybe there's something mentally wrong against me. I didn't know it was going to go this much against me, but why do I do it? I don't know. Maybe there's something mentally wrong with me. Maybe I was dropped as a baby.
Maybe I was slapped. It's not exactly going all in on the short, right? Like you're not.
No, I've committed. I know what I committed. Yeah. I commit usually about 10% of my net worth,
which is a big portion.
On your initial tranche?
No, no, no.
Oh my God, I was like, Jesus.
Overall, and I'll go in at about five times, right?
I'm going to try to pick like five legs up from my stupid analysis that I do, which is dead wrong because I was tapped out at
600. So it was almost $100 of just pure pain where I just stopped. And now I'm finally making
money. So again, all of this just to say that we don't know when bottoms are formed. We don't know if they're done on high volume or low volume or how.
It's just be comfortable with just not fucking knowing.
But if you're buying close to the bottom, you're going to make a shitload of money.
If you're shorting close to the top, you're going to make a shitload.
I'm making a shitload of money on Santa's Cray now.
And I'm just sitting.
I haven't taken anything off. I'm not going to take anything off until like 500
breaks 500. And it's, and I'm just sitting there and I had no fucking idea, right? I was a hundred
dollars wrong. So I just implore people, just stop, stop trying to look for clues and charts
because those all backwards ass fucking.
It's like driving with your fucking head completely turned, looking at like the back of the car and then trying to go forward.
No one can tell you anything.
These technical analysts are full of shit.
They give you three scenarios.
It could go up.
It could go up, it could go down. I know technical analysts who have outperformed,
I mean, plethora of institutional money managers that have, you know, sound great talking macro
and all this. And to your point, you know, there are a lot of people that sound like idiots,
but I think one, you should never go into a trade expecting to be wrong. Always go into a trade
expecting to be right. Now, what you should do from a trader's perspective
is always be willing to accept how much you're willing to lose on the trade if you are wrong
but you should never ever go into a trade thinking that you're going to be wrong like that is make
hang on hang on hang on um let's be be like a Russian war tank and back off Ukraine.
And we're going to pass it on over to Chad.
Chad, what's going on, bro?
How are you?
What's up, yo?
Who's talking?
I don't know if they have me blocked because I don't see them in the spaces.
Someone called volatility.
Okay.
Does this structure on BTC remind you of May of 22, bro?
remind you of may of 22 bro what may of 2022 on btc does this well i just want to first say i agree
What?
May of 2022 on BTC.
with prometheus for what he was saying about kind of the framing just uh i just want to set that
aside and before i answer real quick um like technical analysis helps you define your risk
like more than anything like i'm bullish if i'm bearish if it's not like a prediction tool so i
think like you know you can that's just
the best way to use it so that's what i would say if you're going to use technical analysis just use
it to define momentum and like i'm right here i'm wrong there it's not like driving backwards
you know but um that's just my thought there but does it look like may 2022 is what you're asking
me right now wabi yeah yeah bt um i mean sure i get what you're saying right
so prometheus is talking about that first big uh initial impulse down right and we'd be this would
be like the second impulse afterwards yeah i mean i think that's reasonable i just think it's a
little bit different because right now we're sitting at the 200 average we're sitting at the
20 21 highs and um we're just kind of grinding sideways.
I do think we go lower just from a momentum standpoint.
But I don't know if it's like it looks like May 2022.
I think you can say that, but that's not really like how I think about it,
if that makes sense.
I just see it as a momentum story continuing to roll over.
And I think we're about halfway, halfway to the bottom.
That's dope.
That'd be great, man.
I hope certain tickers actually survive, man.
I hope certain tickers survive because the initial bounce off of the low, that's the strongest bounce that altcoins see for a long time.
If we look at 2018, Q1 going into Q2 of 2019 was the strongest bounce for the entire year.
Q1 2023, that was the strongest bounce all coins saw until late october of 2023 so during
every bear market bottom there's always a huge multi-week bounce and then the market just dies
off for months and months um so yeah i hope history repeats itself. There's always this saying, right?
Past history doesn't equal future performance.
It might be for a select few assets, but the broader market,
you're always going to get some massive bounce.
Let me just say a few thoughts.
Let me say a few thoughts.
I think dollar cost, I heard some great, it was a great conversation. And thanks for letting me jump in because it was really smart talking from all the guests.
Dollar cost average is good.
If you just don't care about where you're going to enter, buy $10 of Bitcoin every week, buy $10 Apple, whatever it is.
If it's a secular or long-term uptrend, that's great.
But you do not want a dollar cost average, a secular downtrend.
Like a dog, just an absolute
garbage chart. Like even like an XRP, I don't think you want to dollar cost average that,
right? But like Bitcoin, you know, maybe, maybe even Ethereum, but you know, if it's trending up
over time, dollar cost average, you don't have to time every entry. You don't have to nail a top and
a bottom. And I think there has to be room for people who are fundamentals only
and people who make fun of technicals. And there has to be room for people like me who make fun of
fundamental analysts and call them astrologists. And we all come together and provide liquidity
for a market so we can all have fun. So I think it's cool, different ways to play the game,
right? And I stay in my lane lane but i try to learn from other people
thanks for coming to my ted talk real man phantom what's up bro what are you saying man
how are you yeah what's up boys uh how's my mic i'm at the gym right now that's pretty good man
there's no background noise or anything yeah um I agree with a lot of the takes
here I think Bitcoin isn't necessarily done on the high time frame I will say that it is finally
reacting to news in a way that we haven't seen for a very long time um I mean I'm sure you guys
are for the past six months whenever there's any slightly type of bad news you know react terribly like any other
speculative asset but i mean i did in a very strong support range so i understand it but
i mean i still have the same thesis regarding my commodities i've really changed much i have
entered oil i think this war is going to be pretty drawn out um i've been very in tune with that i've
been keeping up a lot with that i uh i have family in both iran and nada so very in tune with that I've been keeping up a lot with that I uh I have family in both Iran and and not so very in tune with that and I think he's gonna be drawn out I don't think this is
going to be a Venezuela type of situation so built a pretty large position in oil otherwise I haven't
really changed anything else and still love an XMR to be honest you guys should check out the
XMR to BTC chart it's been on like pretty solid uptrend for the past two years and i think it's going to continue like that to be
honest that's pretty much around that yeah but i haven't taken a look at privacy tokens uh
in a while xmr or zcash or any of that stuff man it. It's kind of wild, man, how the only things
to bid for privacy are things
that are like 10 years old.
Tornado
Cash would have been a massive, massive
winner if they didn't get
that SEC lawsuit.
You would have thought under the Trump
administration, they would be back
up and running and all that stuff um because you know how many crypto people would use tornado
cash quite a bit and i you know tornado cash was huge at the time i remember that that's how we
send money overseas yeah and i i don't really think many people use xmr zcash as much as they use tornado cash um that was a huge winner
in the uh 2020 halving cycle bull run massive massive massive and if if there's like any
privacy token that can come back um in a massive way it's probably tornado cash but the site isn't even up so if the site isn't even
up there's going to be a whole cohort of people that are just going to be blocked out from that
it's kind of like imagine if uniswap went down but the token was still around like
the uni token would probably be like pennies on the dollar it'd
literally go down like 80 percent yeah um and i feel like you should i think you'd much rather
prefer privacy tofi that have been around for a decade but that's kind of the beauty in it is like
been tried and tested like when big one first came out it was the underworld token it was the token
used in the dark web until you know people started realizing it could be tracked and you know
the whole mount god situation at silk road but you know the the deep web the underworld is using
monero on a day-to-day basis like there's a lot of crypto market sites where even if they're not
privacy focused or dark web focused people tend to use Monero way more than
any other coin so that ends up seeping up into the real world on top of like the chart being nice and
you go look at it with all this you know the blood in the streets you go look at the Monero chart and
it's still on the uptrend on the higher time frame much better than any other coin so I'm really
really bullish on Monero I think it's like three times my bitcoin position now
xmr and hype we got to pair those together the oh i actually i like hype too i actually bought
more hype the other day because um i mean i've always had a thesis on a non-kyc decentralized
like perfect exchange and whoever was going to be the one to kind of
get rwas on the fastest is going to win and by being the first mover plus you could buy like
i was telling i don't know if you remember i was telling you months ago i was like bro i'm waiting
for that platform where i could buy my crypto buy stocks and buy my copper and uranium positions on
one site they don't really have uranium yet but like i'm very impressed with
that so i've been i've been loading out i think it's my only cryptos i own now there's bitcoin
monero and hype yeah soul's probably cooked for for a minute man for a minute until uh
star dancer comes out, at least.
That's probably going to be a nice rally to play.
Cheds, have you ever used Hyperliquid, man?
Guess he hasn't, man.
Yeah.
He's not a fan.
Yeah, I think Cheds is away from... What up, Doug? it's not a fan yeah i i think chad's is a way uh from what i'm dog i was gonna ask like have you ever used hyperliquid because i know you started writing it no no no but i'll trade i love the
chart it's one of the better looking more resilient trends um i don't use any for me honestly none of
these are like real it's just symbols and i find i do much better like if i just look at it as price
action four corners of the chart
like if someone, you can tell me
it's the best thing in the world but if the market hates it
like I absolutely hate it
so I have like, I'm terrible with fundamentals
because I just look at the price
yeah
bad price equals bad project
maybe, I mean other people like would disagree
but for me, yeah
yeah, my gosh man talking about
bad price chain link rest of suit up marine suit up yeah oh man the link marine there's been some
strength though man like uh some altcoins like near has been doing pretty good there's been some
interesting bounces it's just it's you need more fall through than like two or three days Yeah, man, this this all coin market like the broader all coin mark. Yeah is just pure trash
man, yes, the only all coins to play are the ones that run on narratives and yeah
If you want to catch a gauge on that man, like you just have to spend a few hours a day on Twitter
Mmm, I was trying to explain to my friend
what happened after trump got elected and i thought i said i tried to tell him like retail
just got extracted on like to be honest and you know i mean it's those people have to build up
their money again and like if you come in and get absolutely extracted maybe you're probably
not coming back either so um it's probably gonna be
a while before we get some real altcoin juice again and bitcoin's gonna have to bottom which
i still think is gonna be you know end of q3 like early q4 like best guess so maybe back then
there'll be some good some good setups at that point real man i'm hoping going into the summer the entire market bottoms out. Yeah
I hope it doesn't drag out at all. I hope the the Trump volatility kicks in
And I I hope like none of his people start talking about crypto that I just need I need his son to like not talk about BTC for yeah for like six months like please Eric Trump
isn't he a theory is it me like if you're not talk about crypto man yeah he's he he's a world Liberty fight guy
and I think I do think that company is going to zero I think I think i like second half of 2028 i think like the entire industry is just going to
short world liberty fi just like they did with luna and it's gonna go to zero um i think that's
actually gonna happen it might happen in a single random day it might be like something that people
could position in because for ftx like people had time
to position for multiple days for that short um some would even say luna you had you had time to
position for that short um and for world liberty fight i kind of think it's going to be the same
thing because i mean it's been over a now, and this administration has been the worst thing to ever happen to the crypto market.
The absolute worst.
The absolute worst.
Yet.
Yet.
We still have more to come.
Yet.
It's the worst yet.
Yeah.
Right?
Yeah.
That Simpsons meme where it's like, more to come.
I don't know.
I just hope everybody, obviously, we're all talking about making money.
I hope everybody's staying safe.
Like, there are people who are in, like, a whole boatload of trouble right now.
So I hope everybody, like, stays safe while me and you, like, pray for volatility so we can make some money.
Do you know what I'm saying?
Yeah, it could always be worse, man.
Yeah.
Go see, what are you saying, bro?
How are you?
Hey, what's up, Bobby?
What's up, Evan?
No, so yeah, so when I'm looking on the markets, I'm a little bit checking.
So talking about the VIX, if you guys take a look at the daily and the three-day,
we already had a golden cross on the 50 and the 200 EMA. And on the weekly chart, on the monthly chart,
I see we are going to eventually potentially get the golden cross as well, meaning like could be
bad for equities. So we could even spike higher on the VIX. And combining that with the S&P chart,
like I have a big parallel going back all the way from 2021,
a parallel line, and we reject it.
So I see less upside because the parallel line
would be like 7100 and the SPX would be like a massive resistance.
But I see like more downside towards like maybe 6100 on the SPY
or something like that.
So I'm just waiting, man, you know, to see how this plays out.
And that's it
yeah i mean kind of waiting right now you know a week two weeks seeing what happens with iran
obviously geopolitical stuff i mean not a terrible a terrible idea. That's what I would say. Waiting though months, that's where it gets, you know, that's where you could be kind
of missing out. But I think at the end of the day, you know, you got to follow a strategy,
whether that strategy be, you know, waiting for momentum changes, you know, on Bitcoin versus
the S&P 500, you know, Bitcoin versus gold, you know, things of that nature, even Bitcoin versus the TLT,
momentum shifts on those things. That could be your plan or your plan is to maybe DCA until
October, which is, you know, one of the strongest things I would say. I wanted to comment on all
coins a little bit. I've looked at hyper liquid. I mean, fundamentally really cool. You know,
I think it's definitely got a future. I think the million dollar question is, is will it come down farther
in the next four to six months? It's tough to say. There's not really enough data on those charts.
Like I could kind of see it going either way. But I think altcoins in general, you know, you want to
look at their Bitcoin pair. And, you know, if you buy one, maybe a strategy that I like is if it
makes a lower low against Bitcoin, then you sell and convert back to Bitcoin.
That's a decent strategy right there.
Because, you know, at the end of the day, I think, you know, the biggest mistake everyone made, including myself, was like, we got too cocky after 2021.
You know, we thought that all coins would give us 10 Xs.
You know, we thought our Cardano's would give us 10 Xs.
We thought our chain links would give us 10 Xs.
We thought our avalanches would give us 10 Xs, new all-time highs and all that.
And what did they give us? They gave us 90% drawdowns instead. So that kind of was the
main issue. And if a lot of us, including myself to a major extent, would have kept an eye more on
those altcoin Bitcoin pairs, i would have probably been able
to convert more stuff to bitcoin and you know preserve more of that bitcoin um the number of
bitcoins i had so you know that's the important thing to realize there and i think the same thing
can be done for bitcoin proxies or you know treasury companies you know microstrategy be
bitmine immersion you know that type of stuff too. So I think you really got to just keep an eye on the Bitcoin evaluation.
And then even, you know, more zooming out,
you got to keep an eye on your S&P 500 evaluation too, because let's be real.
A lot of people can't outperform the S&P 500.
It's easier, you know, easier said than done to outperform that,
the boring thing, you know what I mean?
So that's where you got to keep your eye on.
Hey, Evan, so would you know what I mean so that's where you got to keep your eye Evan so would you can ask you a question um like would you always use the BTC pair like regardless
of what Bitcoin's doing because I feel like that's good and like a like an uptrending Bitcoin market
but like if they're both going down wouldn't you rather be in like stables maybe route you know
what I mean like a Bitcoin say is below like the 50 weekly or something like would you maybe rather convert back into like tether than into like btc from you know from like a random alt yeah yeah i
mean i'm not like a cash guy i see i usually what i do is just convert to like s p 500 just boring
stuff like that i mean i have gold you know xle i like stuff like that but i'm not i'm not a cash
guy all right okay cool fair enough
um yeah i appreciate it man
yeah awesome great to meet you
is there anything else that you guys uh want to bring up i think um i think i'm pretty much
cooked for today man i. I think we discussed
a lot of stuff, but if there's anything else, Prometheus, Chats, Phantom, Evan, Ghost, you want
to bring up, feel free to do so. And if there's anyone up in the, uh, audience that wants to come
up and yap or ask any questions, feel free to do so. Although I usually save that for Fridays, but
I figured, um, I do really think there's going to be a huge move that's going to come pretty soon.
I mean, we just had a war start a few days ago,
and typically within the months that that happens,
within 30 days you usually have a massive trending move.
And I think today's that blood moon thing.
I think today's that blood moon thing i think today's that blood moon then there's usually some insane volatility that follows momentarily after that can i say a couple things like at best
two weeks go ahead judge i want to say first of all we just say thank you to wabi everybody wants
to be able to like just tune into good content you know so he puts it together so you know that takes time and effort so props
to wabi um i want to say if ethereum breaks 2150 that's a very nice high confidence trade for
anybody like listening who just like isn't even sure like what what's a good trade like ethereum
2150 for me is the most important high time frame price zone it's a multi-year price zone, a very important level to define
your risk. If it breaks 2150, I think you can take a nice, like a swing long trade, manage your risk.
You know, it breaks 2150, you hold as long as it's above 2050 or something, right? Manage it
near that level. I think Bitcoin is probably breaking down and I think it's probably going
to 55K like in the next two weeks.
And that's kind of my base case for now.
That's wrong if you break 71.5.
I think we break 71.5.
There's a pretty good chance we go to about 84K. I know it's kind of generic if-then type of analysis, but we're in a consolidation structure after a move down, which means it's bearish consolidation.
Most trends continue, but you have a generalized range peak around 71.5 you can use that again to manage your
risk kind of like that 2150 ethereum level so um patience is good and you don't have to always act
you can wait for i just generally recommend wait for interaction with a key price level right
don't mess around the middle.
Wait for, you know, range peak, range lows,
and then you can define your risk, and you'll do a lot better.
So those are my thoughts.
Thanks for the kind words, man,
and also thanks for coming up to talk some shop and all that stuff.
Prometheus Phantom, Evan Ghosi, if there's anything else that you guys want to say feel free
uh to do so otherwise I'll just uh I appreciate the invite but I mean honestly I just recommend
keeping up with the news on this award I think it's going to kind of dictate where the market
goes and notice that Tel Aviv um is just hit all-time high at the market and then we're
starting to roll over so I really think there's just extracting the American Empire to start this new
Jewish Empire so keep an eye on that and see what happens there
right Chinese Empire man Chinese Empire Chinese Chinese
the East man these anyway yeah I think the real superpower is actually gonna be Asia man
um Asia drove a lot of the flows over the last like 10 years in crypto I mean they're gonna I
mean honestly I actually have a large position emerging markets like yeah yeah EWA Australia
I'm bullish on Australia reacted well to this news
because they don't need the straight informers.
They trade directly to Asia,
so they're not really caught up in this Middle East drama.
Mexico's, Latin America ETFs are all performing really well.
If you're bullish on emerging markets,
I have a stock that I like.
It's Fundamentals.
It's called TGLS.
I wouldn't buy right now, but I'm waiting for it to get to $1.5 billion valuation or sub.
And if we get that valuation, that will be like a long term hold for the next three years
in case we really.
Where's that based out of?
Yeah, so they have manufacturing facilities in Colombia.
They're the second biggest glass manufacturer,
but they're listed on the New York Stock Exchange.
So they're like American listed, yeah.
I wrote it down.
I'm going to keep an eye on them.
But I mean, like you said, if you think China and Asia are the next,
you know, superpower, they're going to need Iran to win this.
And I think behind the
scenes like China's helping them out with intelligence helping locate you know U.S bases
and targets to hit as well as kind of supplying them with the ammunition and drones and the
material that they need so I think they're working behind the scenes I just don't think they're
really gonna get physically involved right now it's going to take time man like the earliest i would
see china being like the i mean what consider what defines the world power generally is when
you have the world's largest economy and i mean that's going to be at least a decade probably
probably 2040s 20 2040s 2050s is probably the earliest you would see that it's gonna take time um i mean this uh
it's hard to say man i mean i don't know what the hell is gonna happen with this i mean it could go
on yeah i mean i i don't think it's gonna lead to recession or anything crazy but it could lead to
like you know three red months for us and p500 yeah i got i got my shorts that's all i'm saying i got spy shorts
for the probably the first time in my trading trading career but honestly like shorting spies
is not very not really efficient trade you know prices just kind of go up over a long period of
time anyway so i'm not a big fan of shorting so but i do have a little position but i mean you
just got to think about what the
possible outcomes are in this war i don't think like no regime change is going to happen if you
guys know anything about like the shia islam like culture they're they're a martyrdom culture that's
not something you can kill when you kill it it becomes empowered like it's not like a dictator
where he was toppled off the head and someone else will come unless they can get the Kurds to take over or they could get ground forces actually controlling the streets it's not going
to stop so either like I'm thinking maybe a ceasefire but Iran's going to demand a lot they're
going to demand like sanctions lifted um not touching the uranium going to continue the
uranium enrichment process and I'll say to get the next guy up,
it's probably going to be more hard line than Khamenei.
Khamenei was the one stopping us from making the nuclear bomb.
So I really don't see a possible outcome here.
Or they should have just nuke Iran.
That's the only other option.
Yeah, adding to that, I just posted my spx chart on the comments so this
is what i see like i don't like to predict i normally like like to like accumulate in key
levels so for the all-time high risk for the for the resistance on the channel we have like a five
percent potential upside but for the mid-range and the channel, we have like a 5% potential upside. But for the mid-range and the previous support, we have like approximately like 10% downside.
So right now, like I said before, like I'm waiting, right?
I don't know if we're going to like try to retest like 7100 on the SPX or try to like go eventually to 6100 or something around there.
100 or something around there if we if we get that downside like i mean we get the upside like
yeah i mean i miss most of the play because i'm like 70 cash or something like that but
if we really get that downside that's when like you use evaluations and good positioning you could
get some i'm waiting on that you know and i And I'm also, like, really bearish on IRON.
I posted about that, like, a big explanation as to why.
Like, we're getting, like, for example,
SanDisk is also showing, like, potential topping signals,
like lower highs, and IRON has been showing
a lot of lower highs recently.
So, I mean, I saw the same thing when I started to short Solana,
like around 190, like lower highs, lower high, lower highs.
And I feel the same for Iron.
Potentially, of course.
Yeah, the one name that summons a hornet of bees, bro.
Iron.
No, and I like to...
Refresh to the long side or the short side.
It always summons a hornet of bees.
Yeah, I mean, I don't know if it's gonna...
Yeah, maybe it can go up, but what I'm saying is, like,
the risk to reward buying here is not there you know
like i really went up 13x in 202 days so i mean even if it goes up like i'm not gonna i don't
want to position that you know like the rr is not there so i mean that you know and i think
the same with bitcoin well i'm gonna go ahead and finish wrapping up thank you guys so much for giving your last thoughts
Cheds, Phantom, Prometheus,
Gosey, Evan,
Naka, thank you all so much for coming on today's show
guys if you've enjoyed
the app session over the last two hours
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