Projects
![]()
No projects found
Investors
New
DAO Treasuries
DATs
Lend / Borrow APRs
Chains
Categories
Spaces
MARKET TALK-NEW LOWS FOR CRYPTO SOON? STOCKS MAKE NEW LOWS?WHATS NEXT?
Recorded: March 12, 2026 Duration: 1:45:01Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. um
um Thank you. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Oh how to keep it hit the road
with a double of stakes
I brought a wide open like a
black out of hell
you can watch the games
once again
I'm calling
before the back of the yard
nothing on the stock
there's nothing that's wrong
now we're here to the upper brink the back of the yard nothing gonna stop you there's nothing that's wrong
welcome to the Mimits.
Take it maybe one step more.
The crowd keeps still playing, so we better go there. Thank you. Oh, my God. You're living, no one left to stand in your way, you might get jealous but you'll never be safe while you're standing there. Thank you. Welcome to the limits Stand on the razor
Don't look down, just keep your head You'll be dead stand Hey, what's going on, guys?
Welcome back to Market Talk brought to you by BB spaces are acting up a
little bit today I actually tried scheduling the space a little bit earlier but X was giving me
some issues saying that space can't be scheduled I tried again space can't be scheduled tried live
streaming couldn't start it but started only two minutes late but nonetheless we're here guys
welcome welcome and uh today oil is um insane today it's up over five percent close to ten
percent actually it's um begging the question is this thing thing gonna retests the highs i i really think not um on hyper liquid i think oil actually
traded right above the 2022 the june 2022 high um there is some more stuff concerning the war that's
making the news today but it's not really affecting the crypto market at all btc and majors are flat
really affecting the crypto market at all btc and majors are flat with the exception of course
of hyperliquid it's up about two percent today making yet another year to date high
while everything else just continues to bleed really um but i did find an interesting play
But I did find an interesting play on base in regards to the options market, crypto options.
I do think that's going to be something very interesting.
And that's probably going to take a while for people to use.
I think over 95% of all volume in terms of crypto options options they're all done on darabit but i did
find something where um i think 99 of uh all on-chain crypto options um are settled within
this product so we'll see how that turns out i'm personally waiting for uh for a better entry and
entry and um reason being why is i mean it's up like 3x when i found it yesterday but
nonetheless guys we do have the s&p and also the qqq and also the dow jones all making new
year-to-date lows but you do have certain sectors that still remain a bit elevated. So as we discussed on yesterday's show, if you
guys were tuning in, this is somewhat of an asset picker's market, whether you're in the stock
market, whether you're in the crypto market. This is a market that's probably going to continue to
reward people that are very selective for their asset choice when it comes
to riding upside. Whether this is a complacency shoulder for oil forming remains to be seen,
but I still do believe that the meat of the move for oil has been done. And as things top out,
they never go straight down in a straight line
they usually distribute have an initial leg down and then they have a complacency shoulder
that could go higher than expected and this has happened with oil in the past
and it'll probably happen at some point once more. But there's always the possibility of oil reacting as silver did when it went parabolic and gold,
where they have that first initial parabolic move up, they correct heavily, and then they make one more higher high.
And I certainly was wrong on trying to call the top on gold and silver Peter
Schiff was on the show a couple of months back and in November and I said to
myself alright if precious metals aren't topped here then this and we truly do
live in a simulation this is a new paradigm and eventually gold and silver actually made went
and set to make new all-time highs and uh i think it really shocked people so i'm not sure if oil
is going to do the same thing they're completely they're completely different assets oil usually
goes up whenever you have um geopolitical tensions as far as war and all that stuff
geopolitical tensions as far as war and all that stuff and um silver and gold honestly like
they just rallied because people pressed the buy button people can say people wanted to
flee their currencies or whatever but what happened with golden server was honestly an anomaly and
i i i really think it was just crypto bros trying to rotate.
And we saw that happening on Hyperliquid, where on weekends you would just see this huge surge of volume, a new influx of users go on to Hyperliquid.
And the same thing has happened recently with oil.
And that kind of shapes my thesis as far as why I'm extremely bullish on something
like a hyperliquid. We're seeing so much uncertainty in the markets, but people are
flooding to hyperliquid to buy assets in traditional equities when the new york stock exchange is closed they're buying oil they're
buying stocks and uh it really is remarkable that there is a product in crypto that benefits from
not only upside in a bull market when you have fresh liquidity come in and speculate but also
during uncertainty where people want to hedge and in particular assets whether it's
commodities like oil or precious metals such as gold and silver there's a marketplace for that
that's open 24 7 and and it's hyper liquid it's as far as I know it's's had 24-7 uptime, and this thing is an absolute beast in its churning volume.
And the main beneficiary, the main benefactor of people wanting to trade 24-7 markets right now is Hyperliquid.
And that does take a while to price in, and we'll see how that goes but as of now it's uh one of the it is the top
performing crypto in all the majors in the top hundred and we've been discussing this on the
show for multiple weeks and you know i've been called the shill i've been called like oh we're
sponsored by hyperliqu liquid but the fact of
the matter is is in a market that doesn't really provide much signal when it's choppy and it's dead
you really have to apply the pressure on yourself and try to see any anomalies and hyper liquid is
uh is one of them ethan soul haven't really done much. They've done nothing but reject from range highs
with the exception of SOUL,
which made a slight deviation to,
I think it was 94 or 95, something like that.
And ETH is just continuously hitting a wall
at 2200 and change.
So you have to ask yourself,
if the Qs and the S&P gap down, where is that going to lead crypto?
And earlier in the year, anytime we would make new year-to-date lows on the indices, crypto would just get hammered to the downside.
It was honestly crazy.
You would see SPx and the queues
down one percent from their all-time high and crypto would be down 10 plus percent across the
board but we're not really seeing that right now and uh one of our guys louis has entertained the
fact that we have seen the indices correct 10 plus percent but you've seen crypto
front run all that downside beforehand we saw that the second half of 2023 um btc put that low
at 24k in august of 2023 and then you saw the nasdaq and the S&P correct by well over 10%, whereas crypto, for the most part, just flatlines.
It didn't really do much.
And as the S&P and the NASDAQ was forming a bottom in late October, we finally saw crypto explode to the upside.
We saw BTC blow through 32K. it gapped up to about 35 36.
he's had a huge gap up soul was starting to go absolutely nuts you saw shit coins on soul like
bonk going absolutely parabolic new coins like Celestia going crazy things like suey going crazy and say as well and that was as
the s p and the nasdaq was still correcting to the downside so you ask yourself will history
repeat itself history never repeats itself but it often rhymes that's what you have to ask yourself
and for me i mean unless something happens internally within crypto i don't really
think we have that much more to go and we don't necessarily have that many vol events to the
downside in crypto they're very few far in between and they're usually spaced out between a couple of
months even the ukraine war and luna was a few months apart. Luna happened in May.
The Ukraine war happened in February of 2022. So you're talking about a three-month gap.
We had 10-10, right? October 10th, we had that huge Binance liquidation event.
And then four months later, we had February 5th during that huge liquidation event.
February 5th during that huge liquidation event.
And the market usually ranges after these massive, massive vol events that terrify people.
And they shock them.
And so they say, damn, this is way crazier than I thought.
This is too much volatility.
I'm going to park my money in stocks. But we're seeing stocks now over the
last few months essentially have the same volatility that crypto has been known for
over the last decade. So if you really think about it, all of these markets are converging
into one. You're seeing some assets that we've talked about here on the show for multiple years like hood
have volatility of five to ten percent a day same thing with miners these miners are trading in
market caps of billions things like nibius and iron are trading at like 10 20 billion dollars in
in valuation and you take a look at crypto and you take a look at the market cap
of some of these tokens you don't really see that kind of volatility on most days
so it makes you wonder what kind of money is doing business in the equity markets
and if take a look at your timeline people that you follow whether it's small accounts medium
accounts or large accounts chances are a lot of them over the last few years
have migrated over to the equity markets.
And that's because of platforms like Hyperliquid and like Robinhood.
And I would say both of those platforms are really, really something else.
When we take a look at something like nvidia you ask yourself damn if
only i could have seen the narrative right if you think about it nvidia doesn't really do much
they're just a supplier of goods they're goods and services for a broader macro picture and if
you take a look at things like robin hood and hyper liquid they're just the facilitator of goods and services.
If you want to trade perps, if you want to trade spot assets across all global markets 24-7, Hyperliquid is the facilitator of that.
And they make money on volume.
So whether it's a bull market, bear market, they're going to print money.
That causes an infinite loop on hyperliquid and with
Robin Hood now that they have crypto rails where you can send and receive stable coins it's it's
basically tried by hyperliquid if you really think about it and they're discussing 24 7 trading so to me it's kind of the same thing
hyper liquid and uh robin hood are kind of like the saloon of acts and people don't really know
that yet and you ask yourself man these coins have way too much of a valuation but again we saw things like palantir going absolutely nuts at the bottom
palantir had a market cap of hyper liquid it was worth tens of billions actually i think palantir
was worth a little bit less i think it was like sub sub 10 so probably right around where iron um
was training at when we were talking about it here on the show last summer when it was about
to make new range highs at like 14 15 bucks and we saw how crazy that went and so you're seeing
all this doom and gloom and uncertainty and where are people going to do business well if you're
crypto native it's probably going to be hyper liquid and i will keep pounding that narrative over and over
and over again um no one really wants to do business on btc right now because it's really just
sailor doing business there right now with his whole strc strategy which honestly i think it ends in disaster um maybe a few years
from now maybe a decade from now but whenever that finishes i think that will be the worst bear market
in history um in history i i think you're talking about a man that owns over 3% of the Bitcoin supply.
If people thought that Vitalik selling was bad, I think that's just a warm-up for what could happen in this market.
could happen in this market but i don't think it's going to happen anytime soon um maybe a couple of
But I don't think it's going to happen anytime soon.
halvings from now but when you see something that's basically an echo bubble of what doquan did
with luna and bitcoin and q1 of 2022 the market does not like that the market does not like
overconfident entities that control a good amount of uh of the flows and for those that remember
that uh that price action that we had in q1 of 2022 um and we're active here on ct
at some point you saw that individual doquan at the time calling people the r word uh i don't think i can see the r word i
think like i think we'd get taken off the iago if i say that because i said that yesterday but um
you started seeing doh kwan argue with entities that had a lot more sophisticated capital and actually lived on chain and so you saw that exploit on curve which was a
literal 10 to 15 second time window to deep peg do you know how savage someone has to be how
Vigilant someone has to be to capture a small time window of 10 to 15 seconds
small time window of 10 to 15 seconds um to penetrate the three pull on curve i think
i'm pretty sure we were hosting spaces not on this account i don't think this account was live at
that time but uh i think naka was hosting a space at the time where there was that small vulnerability
on curve on the three pull uh for like 10 to 15 seconds. And then you had the sharks come out. They smelled blood.
And then the tides turned. And I know
that's not the case with Sailor, but
I just don't think it's going to end well.
But I could be wrong. I'm wrong
on many, many things. I'm not perfect. Nobody's perfect, actually. I'm just another market participant like anyone else. But that's my intro rant. I got a number of speakers up here. We're going to go ahead and get the show rolling. And I'm sorry if the space kicks you out, guys. I did mention at the start of the stream that spaces were acting a little strange today.
So if it kicks you out or if the stream ends or if you're not able to send invites to other people, I'm sorry.
Once again, when I tried to start the stream, like schedule schedule the space it said I wasn't available to
schedule the spaces not able to schedule space multiple times and then when I tried to start
the space it said couldn't start space so I had to turn off my phone twice and yeah I sent some
invites on my personal account but then it says space is not available
uh so if spaces are acting up it's probably elon hopefully at some point this app can run smoothly
because these shows have been have been great and i hope um a lot of you have not only been
entertained but have taken little pieces of alpha with you to incorporate
in your uh in your trading strategy but before we get started guys before i pass it on over to the
panel if you guys can go ahead and do me a small tiny favor guys only takes a few moments doesn't
take that much effort guys if y'all can go ahead and click the spaces tab once you guys do that you'll
see all of our profile pictures and right above up on the nest you'll see a
little link that says x.com slash I slash spaces that is the spaces link if
you guys can go ahead and click that smash up the like button guys with
brute force hit up the retweet, guys, with brute force.
Hit up the retweet button, whether you're bullish, whether you're bearish, smash up the like button, the retweet button,
so you can get these spaces more out into the algorithm.
It helps bring more people here to the audience.
And you never know, maybe some of your favorite traders could end up being here in the audience and you never know maybe some of your favorite traders could end up being here
in the audience and i'll bring them up to speak so guys without further ado spaces are recorded
and uh i guess today's topic is we're on uh the precipice of of a vol event at least in the equity
markets we're in the precipice of a of a vol event and
we'll see how uh crypto reacts typically whenever the s p and um the queues distribute for any
amount of time and then they start making new year to date lows and you see all right two percent
three percent below the previous low what's going to happen here and um then the important thing is
to look at which assets have that relative strength for a prolonged period of time um
my bet is on hype and hood but we'll see maybe i'll eat drawdown that's fine with me
but uh anyways let's see what the speakers have to say the market is about to get
really entertaining in my opinion i understand in crypto land it might be just chop amongst
majors and people are just pulling their hair out because they're seeing hyper liquid outperformance
and maybe my timeline is wrong but i'm just i i do not really see at least
in my algorithm people bragging or boasting that hyper liquid is doing well for the most part
i think people are being distracted by oil um and they're being distracted by by headline news which
you can't really blame them right sometimes things happen in the real world and
most people's attention aren't really on markets but uh i'll pass it i guess to go see first and
then i'll go to knocking naka and and sullivan go see what's up bro how are you hey it's up boy
thanks for having me man so yeah man actually yeah, man. Actually, I want to share some alpha I've been seeing for myself.
So I'm seeing a lot of confluence.
I mean, are you guys aware of NIO, the EV company?
Yeah, I know NIO.
Yeah.
Yeah.
So, I mean, like, I actually two days ago, two or three days ago, I did a really detailed
analysis of why I think, Neil, after this multi-year downtrend, has a high probability to outperform
many assets the coming month. And I'm seeing a lot of technical factors
that I went in detail on my post,
but not only technical factors,
like I'm seeing technical factors
and fundamental factors.
Like the past four years, from revenue wise,
the company has been growing its revenues,
its losses are becoming less and less.
Actually, we recently reported positive earnings for the first time.
And not only that, man, actually today you compare like NIO today with other EVs or other companies, like actually
NIO hold its day like green and a lot of the other companies like were red today.
And actually, like I was even like pair trading like NIO versus Bitcoin, NIO versus Tesla,
trading like neo versus Bitcoin neo versus Tesla neo versus ethereum neo versus uh drift which is
like uh uh EV ETF and man if you take a look at all of those charts like it's it's it's like it's
like for me like a um basically like uh it's trying like hit resistance and have a breakout in many
different charts in terms of pair and on the new
and on the new price chart like the new price chart actually has been forming for the last
couple of years like this type of rounding bottom and i explained in my analysis that
in in the downtrend since 2021 basically every time every time we had a spike we rejected the bull market support band
and sometimes we had like a fake-out breakout
and I actually highlighted
we had like three fake-out breakouts
in the past one year and a half
something like that
that I highlighted in my post
and man, like I think the coming month
is going to perform many assets
so I'm seeing a lot of confidence, like
rising RSI, like a lot of technical factors. And not only that, man, like, as you guys know,
like we recently had a big, big spike on oil. And before back in 2020, when NIO had its first
like parabolic run, actually oil was at high valuations at that time.
I had prices, high prices at that time.
So that is also like giving me like also even more confidence
before all the technical factors,
all the pair analysis versus different assets.
And yeah, man, like I'm starting to accumulate a position
for a multi-month swing.
And I know this might sound controversial, but I think Niu is going to like outperform Bitcoin moving forward for the coming month, like multi-month.
It's going to perform Bitcoin, in my opinion.
So I'm saying this in a recorded space, sort of build a position on it.
And I'm also taking a look for a swing trade potential bounce on a nuclear stock called SMR.
So I'm waiting for SMR to have like a 15% dip. And I see a lot of like confluence on on on that area for uh for uh for a swing bounce
yeah it's trading at a market cap of uh like 10 billion something like that neo yeah yeah yeah
because there's another ticker not for people to be confused called uh neogenomics
confused called uh neogenomics what's the ticker for neo again the ev one so it's n i o n i o
and i know jack just loves that one and i know it's a ball claim man i know it's a ball long time
ago yeah i i know it's a ball claim what i said but what i really believe and what i see on the
charts right now yeah the chart the chart does look bottomed
out man um it does look bottomed out and we saw things like rivian and carvana going uh
i think it was carvana actually carvana was the one that will's outlook played
he called that one out in the summer of 2023.
And it went from like $10, $12 all the way to almost $500.
That was insane.
That was insane.
So maybe Nioh does something similar to that.
I think Sullivan also played that.
Dude, you should go on Market Check, man,
because your style is like charting and and all that stuff man um i'll dm you bro you you'd love going on market
check um so speaking of market check we have sullivan up here sullivan tell us how it's just
all over for equities how we're gonna gap down gap down by like 10%, and then we're just going to turbo reverse it to all-time highs in traditional Sullivan fashion.
That's your favorite market, man.
Everything just hammering down by 80% and then back to new highs within two months, bro.
How are you?
Welcome back to Market highs within two months bro how are you welcome back to market talk man you
know i like watching market check and i always stay right for the ending when you talk about
market talking it always brings a smile to my face man it always it always it always does man
market check is not the same without Sullivan.
If it doesn't start or end with Sullivan, it's just not market check, man.
It's a different show.
But how are you, man?
Please give me some good news on hype.
I hope you can spare that ticker.
And I don't know, everything else can just can just you know what's that term you said?
I think everything's going to zero but I'm going to hire consumer staples for a nice 5% return.
Oh man I was kind of joking when I said that but you know I mean I feel like there is somebody who does typically come on those spaces that might say that.
No, I like his commentary, though.
But, yeah, I appreciate the kind words, Wabi.
The, like, intros and outros on shows.
Like, it's a certain art form.
But I also, like, I don't ever want to be just the Debbie Downer, right? Because that's kind of what I am at the moment, unfortunately, just as it pertains to markets. And I'm like,
obviously, it's a thesis that I've invested a lot of time into. So I'm pretty passionate about it.
But then I get like, I'll talk too much about it. And I realized like, Oh, wait, that's actually
that's actually really not good for most people. So shouldn't you know I shouldn't have like the same um enthusiasm I guess
that I do but look I I love markets I uh I get really into you know building out like high time
frame theses and this is one of those times and unfortunately that uh that thesis is to the
downside so I'll spare uh I'll spare hyper liquid I don't know what it's going to do from here. I generally
speaking, I'm not a buyer given kind of the risks that I see elsewhere throughout the market.
But I think kind of like the best way to compartmentalize everything that's occurred
over the last five or six months is kind of like just this massive domino effect. We saw crypto sell off or begin to sell off in October when there was weakness
in liquidity. Some small caps, right, like a Robinhood, for example, topped right around that
time period, too. So it was not just crypto. We saw that creep into software a few months ago.
Over the last few weeks, we've seen it creep into private
credit look at charts like blue owl blackstone uh i mean blue owl for example is already back
at cycle lows blackstone looks horrible and now we're seeing the domino effect right of and i'm
going to consider this like a domino effect of contagion i think that's the keyword here uh it's
the word nobody really likes to hear but i do think it's playing a big role in why we're seeing, you know, and kind of like the chronology of or like the chron lending, that is, because of contagion.
So it's now crept into the banks. And if we look at the charts, the XLF has been selling off now
for a few weeks. And that rotation that we saw out of tech into defensives that led the Dow to
make a new high while the Nasdaq did not, it's now, I think, reflexive
to the downside because, you know, we're seeing the XLF sell off.
That is why you're seeing the Dow Jones show this weakness relative to tech.
And so I have to ask the question now.
All right.
Well, the XLF is selling off.
The move index is starting to rise.
Is the next is the next domino to fall going to be the American tech trade in the MAG-7?
And I tend to think so.
The S&P accepted below 6,700 today.
First time we've closed a daily candle below there in quite some time.
It's a very, very significant level for options positioning.
So I tend to think we are inching closer to, I mean,
it almost feels like a slow motion car accident right now. Like car accident might not even be
the right word to put it. I have a video coming out later today on our YouTube where I kind of
talk about how, I mean, people are like looking at a campfire and wondering why people are panicking.
And then all of a sudden one day they're going to turn around and the entire forest is going to be
on fire behind them. So that's kind of how I view the
current market right now. I think we've been inching closer to very like some pretty aggressive
downside for a few months now. But, you know, now that we're seeing it start to impact financials,
and that's no longer a tailwind for the indexes. It's clearly a headwind when we're looking at correlations.
Yeah, I tend to think that the idea
that it's going to impact indices more meaningfully
here in the near term is rising pretty rapidly.
Naka, what are you saying, man?
How are you?
Thanks for hopping on, bro.
You're going to say your favorite catchphrase i'm ready
i'm not even gonna say it man i'm just it's just so bad like the market is too bad for me to
people into thinking they're in a bull market i mean some some people can never be saved
i noticed chimp zoo is still bullish um but you, it's kind of like Chimp Zoo is starting to do the kind of things that he did in the previous bear market.
Like he's telling us that the Saudis are buying.
Remember that?
Remember when there was like a whole Saudis NFT series and, you know, it was all like the Saudis are buying and all this crap.
Like it was all nonsense.
It was all a complete load of nonsense.
Um, the market continued to go down.
Um, but it was interesting for Twitter.
I mean, I genuinely think that, and I've been saying this for a while, mid to late March is rug season.
Um, I think we're going to rug.
I really do and the thing is i don't know if anyone's noticed
but have you noticed that there's like a war in iran at the moment have you noticed that
no what are you talking about bro what what isn't bitcoin at 300k right now like everyone
said it would be what's going on man everyone's fucking talking about you know like the saudis
buying neo is gonna like you know neo is gonna moon like bitcoin is gonna moon and hyperliquid's
gonna moon dude do you know that the entire fucking global economy runs on crude oil and
natural gas and that shit is all coming through not all of it but a significant
chunk of it is coming through you know what is now a war zone um and you know the tankers can't
get through and you know there's like a clock that's ticking down and you know the iranians
just uh you know gave a sort of you know conference today or a speech where they said
they're basically not going to back down um and it's kind of hard it's kind of you know america
has made it very hard for the iranians to negotiate because the iranians were negotiating
with america and we or you know america and israel basically dropped a bomb on their entire
leadership and so the people who are in charge now have absolutely no confidence
that the Americans and the Israelis are going to negotiate in good faith.
Basically, it's a game of chicken when one team has taken a shotgun
and blown up the other team's steering wheel.
And they're like, ha ha, we're playing chicken
and they don't have a steering wheel now, right?
And they haven't really thought through the implications of that.
So yeah, and what's that going to do to the internet ponzies?
Like when people realize, I mean, assuming that this carries on,
when people realize that, no, no, this really is bad.
This is like the
entire global economy that's about to crash um what do you think they're going to do to their
internet ponzi coins what do you think they're going to do with them they're going to sell them
right i mean obviously um it's kind of like remember the ukraine war remember how like you
know the ukraine war in 2022 kind of like people were a little bit frightened. They were a little bit scared when the initial invasion happened. Cause it wasn't
really expected. And then after the initial invasion, like, you know, kind of dump, then
there was a pump and then there was another dump and another pump people like, okay, whatever,
this war doesn't matter. And then Do Kwon started like pumping, you know, Bitcoin. Cause he was
going to buy all the bitcoins
and people just forgot about the Ukraine war for a while, maybe about two months. They just
literally forgot about it. And you know, throughout that period, natural gas prices, supply chains,
you know, the people in the federal reserve in America notice that there's a problem.
Um, they start raising rates unexpectedly.
The financial system goes, oh shit.
You know, they're raising rates.
This wasn't priced in help all of our duration sensitive assets have to take
a massive mark down now.
And that includes internet Ponzi coins.
And I think to some extent about to see to see play out um except this time it might actually
be worse like straits of homers is worse than ukraine it is worse at least if it carries on
right now it doesn't have to carry on right they could come to an agreement tomorrow
they could declare peace you know but it doesn't really look like that because of the way things have played out
Because israel and america bombed the iranian
Leadership, it's now very hard to have a negotiation
Right. Um
It's a game of chicken when one side doesn't have a steering
What's up josh hey what's up josh
my bad oh very good man you were saying naka
yeah it's a game of chicken where one side no longer has a steering wheel
but what happens well you know the americans and the israelis gonna happens? Well, you know, the Americans and the Israelis going to swerve.
Maybe, you know, maybe they're going to make a bunch of concessions, but that's going to make Trump look really bad.
The Israelis are not going to want it.
You know, they seem pretty determined to like crash the global economy over this.
And the thing is, is, you know, the problem with the problem that the israelis and the americans are going to swerve
And i'm i'm kind of of the opinion that
You know as much as it's a little bit unpolitically correct to say this. I think israel is actually kind of in control of the white house
at the moment, um
you know
like
They they do not pay is Israel does not pay the whole cost of the global economy collapsing.
It pays some of the costs, right?
But not all of it.
And Israel is quite a rich country.
It can kind of get through, right?
But they get all of the benefits of having a war with Iran, right?
So, you know, it may be the case that Iran simply can't swerve and Israel slash America don't want to.
And so we get a massive collapse of the global economy for the rest of 2026.
And, you know, yeah, maybe eventually something happens, but not before there's like an absolutely massive
Crash in you know all of these duration sensitive financial instruments
Now if you're in XLE if you're long
He's cutting out
You can you hear me
Knock at the Jews are rugging you.
Yeah, Naka, you're cutting out.
You're saying the most important thing.
Should we buy XLE?
And then he just cuts out.
I would be careful with it.
Can you hear me now?
Yeah, you're good now.
I'd be careful with it.
I mean, I just sit in cash in cash you know they're blocking the
straits of hummus like you know you don't have to be long assets at this specific time when there's
like a a global you know economic crisis just just beginning right you can wait until after
the global economic crisis and then be long risk assets. That could be like 30 years, bro.
I don't think so.
I think, I think this has to, you know,
this has to resolve within like 12 months or something.
One way or another,
I think what Israel actually wants is it wants boots on the ground in Iran.
And the whole like global economic crisis may be a way to force that.
Cause it may be like
you know trump didn't really want regime change he didn't want boots on the ground but like you
know now it's kind of the only way to resolve it and we get basically the invasion of iran i don't
know but it's just i just think it's bearish there's no way you can look at this and say this is bullish right it is not bullish to be shutting off the global
supply of oil gas and also helium which helium only comes from like natural gas and oil deposits
so that supply of helium is going to shut down the chip labs as well
right um but that's probably the least of our problems, at least in the short term.
I want to take a slightly countered, and I mean, yeah, I mean, from the fundamental standpoint,
yeah, I mean, that all makes sense. When I look at, you know, from my chart squiggling perspective,
technical analysis, the first thing I want to draw some attention to is like Bitcoin versus gold.
this the first thing i want to draw some attention to is like bitcoin versus gold and that's down now
down it was down you know it's down 70 percent in total in this kind of bear market you know since
the top and of like uh december 2024 the last bear market goal or excuse me bitcoin went down 76
against gold a time before that it was like 84 you notice the pattern it's getting a little bit less every time 70 seems good enough like in my view like that seems enough where we potentially could i know a
lot of like people there's certain people who definitely disagree with me they think it's going
to go lower to the bottoms that we saw you know of december 2022 i i'm a bitcoin believer i'm
going to take the more optimistic route here. I see
some momentum changes. I see things of that nature. So, you know, could be risky, but I was
up about 30% on all my gold and I held it since I converted some Bitcoin into gold back in October.
Obviously, I should have done that much earlier for obvious reasons, but I'm happy to have
outperformed, you know, Bitcoin by enough where I could almost get like double the Bitcoin amount for buying back Bitcoin right now.
So that's one of the trades I made.
I converted a lot of gold into Bitcoin.
And that's, you know, that's one of the things I'm looking at.
Even, you know, a lot of stuff, man, like it's crazy.
I mean, a lot of stuff on the charts, like I said, Bitcoin versus S&P 500.
of stuff on the charts like as bitcoin versus s p 500 it looks like it could have bottomed however
It looks like it could have bottomed.
you know like what naka was saying like yeah it wouldn't surprise me if we do fall off a cliff you
know in a few months but you know so far bitcoin's bled let's see 55 against s p 500 i mean obviously
last time was much much worse 75 but with institutions with fundamentals with people
buying or whatever you know your bitcoin maxi fundamentalist moon stuff.
I mean, let's be fair.
All those people thought we would be at 200K by now.
But, you know, there's an argument to be made that Bitcoin could bottom out earlier.
I mean, even microstrategy from the time, you know, the last bear market for microstrategy, I don't know the amount of weeks exactly, but it was that amount of time.
You know, that could have bottomed and it bottomed out before Bitcoin did last time as well. So, you know,
that could have bottomed on its Bitcoin pair. I mean, even Ethereum looks pretty good. Very
similar situation to what we saw last April for Ethereum. Now, I'm not saying, you know, go
hardcore into Ethereum, you know, but you could buy Ethereum and then convert back to Bitcoin if
it makes a lower low and it's Bitcoin pair. That's a lot of the techniques that I'm really looking at
here. I mean, even XLE, I mean, that would be the last thing I would sell in terms of like, you know,
S&P 500 gold, because XLE, I think, has potential to ride up to maybe from $57 for rare right now,
maybe even 70 bucks. But even that looks even that looks like Bitcoin could have bottomed against it,
like Bitcoin could potentially outperform it.
So there's a lot.
I think the best thing to be right now is cautiously optimistic.
I feel like it's definitely risky not to have any Bitcoin at all now,
but it's obviously risky as well to be hardcore deep into it right now, but it's, it's obviously risky as well to be like, you know, ball, you know, hardcore deep
into it right now, where if we do fall off a cliff due to some geopolitical crap, that would be,
you know, that would really screw a lot of us over. So you got to be careful in those respects.
You know, I know Wabi's talked about hype a lot and a lot of people have talked about hype lately.
The thing with that, I mean, it's obviously, you know, a smaller mark, you know, it's,
it's a smaller market cap. That's the only thing that's had good momentum lately. And, you know, if you're a momentum
chaser like I am, there's easy low risk, high reward ways to kind of follow momentum here.
And that's the only thing that's really outperforming Bitcoin lately. So you could just kind of
try to ride that up until it shows weakness against Bitcoin. The same thing I like to do
with micro strategy, with BMNR,
those things, you know, as long as they remain outperforming Bitcoin, I'm happy to hold them.
The moment that they lose, you know, make a lower low on their Bitcoin pair, I would gladly just
convert them over to Ibit or convert them, you know, over to Bitcoin, you know, however you want
to do it. No right or wrong way completely. But there are those, you know, this is a very safe, like low risk,
high reward way of getting some exposure to these, you know, much more volatile things. Because,
you know, obviously, if you're somebody like me, you're trying to get more than like a two or three
X or four X in the next couple of years, you're going for an eight X, you're hoping to redo what
Bitcoin did, you know, get the equivalent of that into the into the end of the decade. Last thing I
want to talk about, you know, we could just talk about like the NASDAQ quickly, because that's where it gets a little bit weird.
Like that's where, like I would say the NASDAQ actually looks more bearish than Bitcoin right
now, because, you know, on the daily, the two day, like I kind of think too, you may see a lot of
chop this year, a lot of sideways action for Bitcoin as well. So I do think it's like one
of those just long accumulation phases for a lot of things. I mean, there was a notion that was kind of playing out, you know, until this
geopolitical stuff happened, that interest rates are going to go down, low beta is going to do
well. I mean, you know, who's been talking about that a lot. And now this geopolitical stuff,
that threw a giant wrench in that so far, because, you know, yields have come back up.
I still think, you know, a lot of people are buying the tlt they're they're bullish on bonds like yeah cool sure but like from a trader
perspective like dude i'm not getting out of a bed for freaking tlt like there's always a bull
market somewhere and i'm gonna try to find it i mean i've done pretty well with gold lately
um my biggest trade that my most successful trade this year was xle there's always a bull market
somewhere like you could argue tlt would be in a bull market but I mean there's stuff that's probably gonna
outperform TLT and I think um I think you know it's probably gonna be one of the things I mentioned
and I don't think Bitcoin's a bad bet on it right now and in terms of what I'm looking at so yeah
hey but I have a quick question you mentioned uh Bitcoin versus gold i mean on the pair i mean we had a we had
in 2025 we had a deviation to the highs so basically i i mean are you considering a deviation
on on the lows because if if that happens i mean gold will still like outperform bitcoin
i think it's gonna jump like if you look at the weekly bitcoin versus gold that's what i'm looking
at you got a green high canashi candle for the first time since october of 2025 obviously the last one was
a dud i mean it could play out like that you got momentum changes you're hitting a major area
essentially that same area that you bottomed in june of 23 also the problem the problem with all
of these like bitcoin versus gold bitcoin versus s p it's like yeah if you're
trading that pair yes but most people are like oh well bitcoin's like gonna go up versus gold so
i'll just go long bitcoin you know naked but then what actually happens is gold just absolutely
fucking giga rugs right goes down like 60 and bitcoin goes down 50 and it's like well actually yes gold did go up bitcoin did go up
versus gold right maybe the s p get you know rugs like 40 or something so you have to be a bit careful
with these things right like yeah the the bitcoin gold pair looks bullish and it looks bullish
mostly because gold is going to get destroyed right like that's probably what's going to happen
i don't do you think like if gold gets so you're thinking if gold gets destroyed s p 500 won't get destroyed as bad
as you're saying they probably they'll probably all get destroyed and bitcoin will get destroyed
less it's kind of like the same it's the same thing when people see that their altcoins are
bottoming against bitcoin so they buy the altcoins and then what happens is bitcoin rugs and the altcoins rug but less right a pair trade is a pair trade it's not a dollar
trade you're trading the pair so you have to actually set that up well you know on a cross
margin account and you know have like well i'm long this and i'm short this and you know i've
got risk limits and so on and so forth i'm not actually bullish on the Bitcoin gold pair. I'm actually bearish.
I mean, short term, yeah.
I mean, probably we'll have a spike.
We'll have a spike because, I mean, we had a big drop on that pair.
But, like, longer time frame, like, my base case is we got a deviation on the lows.
We'll see what happens i mean the thing that you could do too is like um
you could set like an alert if we do you know lose those lows in the bitcoin versus gold pair
and then you could convert back to bitcoin or whatever if we do it would invalidate it you
know it's kind of low risk high reward um given history how long we've been in a bear market on
our gold pair for bitcoin history would tell you that we probably are relatively close to a bottom.
You know what I mean?
Like, it's probably not going to, like, are you thinking it's going to go all the way down to where it was in December of 22?
Like, that would suck, man.
I really hope that doesn't happen.
Yeah, actually, like, the way I invest and trade, like, if I don't get my high probability zones, I prefer to miss the trade.
And I remember like I actually remember vividly that if Bitcoin pair that is Bitcoin pair bottomed on a multiyear like support zone.
You know, so I'm waiting for that potentially the same thing to happen on this pair.
Maybe. Yeah. I mean mean we don't know you know i think i think if you just you know what i like to do
and not any type of advice obviously but i what i like to do is just have like kind of tights
you know really monitor it and have tight stops and if it loses that low it's invalidated obviously
you guys want to know an interesting pair man tomm Tommy, I'm sure you're going to love this one.
The hype lighter pair.
Lighter sucks.
It's like the worst thing to happen since DYDX.
Those people make the Link Marines from 2020 seem like nice people.
And believe me, I know nice people.
Have you seen that, Sullivan?
The hype lighter pair?
Honestly, very predictable, man.
I'm pretty sure I even said as much on X that it was going to go straight down on TG,
and that's pretty much exactly what's happened.
It was always the Miss Orr trait.
People didn't want to be early
to the next hyper liquid decks they wanted to be early to the next hyper liquid airdrop that they
missed so it was pretty easy to see that uh that token was not going to do it hyper liquid did at
tg tommy are you aware of Deriv, the options platform?
Yeah, I think I've used it once or twice.
What do you think about that, man?
It's pretty smooth.
I don't know about liquidity because I haven't really tested it too much.
But, man, crypto options liquidity is honestly garbage natively.
And that's true for Darabit too.
Just garbage, unless you're OTCing.
Nothing against like derive, because I like the protocol.
I just think like in general, liquidity for crypto options hasn't really been great
during obviously like the last six months.
Yeah. obviously like the last six months yeah
the chart
looks like
a macro version of what Pump
went through last year
where TGE just goes down like
like
90% then this long consolidation
and then it starts curving
up to the upside
but most of the on-chain options volume happen on Zeriv.
And I think we all know that options are the greatest instrument
of wealth creation and destruction.
When we talk about velocity, reaching escape velocity.
escape velocity and i think uh flood he placed a bet on options on on tradfire on tradfire rail
but he didn't use hyperliquid which is a perps platform right so it makes you wonder like when
there's a when whenever there's an options platform that you can actually bet on and there's a token tied to it, how does that affect Hyperliquid?
Or do they just go up simultaneously at the same time, right?
Or it's the Salunavax trade.
And crypto options at some point I think is going to be a huge market.
But I don't own any derivative right now, but I am waiting on a pullback, man.
But I don't own any derivative right now, but I am waiting on a pullback, man.
I remember on the show, like last week, I was like, man, if only there was a place where options could be a thing in crypto natively, right?
I think that's going to be a pretty huge platform.
And FDV is at 144 mil.
Market cap is just under 100. It's on Kraken.
And it's the only thing to bet on because Darabit doesn't have a token.
And the money that they raised is equity.
So we're not able to capture that, right?
We'll see. It a a token on base and not many are talking
about it morpho is also another one that like i've seen trending somewhat and usually um
as like bear markets or quieter markets or just i I'm just going to call them risk, mostly risk off or periods where you have to be more selective about your asset choices.
That's what I'm going to call it.
It's that kind of season.
There are some plays where you can look at fundamentally that when the market does turn around, some of these assets could rip aggressively um and we know the market
hates on coins right like if your token came out before trump before the election
it's unk just mark it out. It's done for.
Getting those flows back is going to be very difficult.
A lot of those flows got destroyed after Trump coin.
It's crazy when you think about it, man. Under Biden, we had the huge AI run.
run uh we had soul meme season ai season um all the bad actors went went to to prison
We had soul meme season, AI season.
and then i remember we were all so euphoric during the inauguration and then you had bad
actors getting out of jail right cz he got pardoned and then like bro not even not even like a month after cz gets out of jail
he's like you know what screw you 10 10 happened and then he's like you know what let me launch
binance jr we gotta liquidate the kids too and then what happened happened right
finance jr who comes up with this stuff bro finance junior like they're really that hungry
for fees man um but anyways the main beneficiary of uh this administration has been the stock
market and it's been very selective it has been very selective and i guess we just have to adjust to the regime right the
biggest beneficiary of of this administration is going to be hyper liquid um and people fail to
see that because they're like it can't be that easy it can't be that easy right like with solana
it can't be that easy no way um who's gonna buy soul right
it only went up because of ftx so i don't know man maybe the hyper is there a term for hyper
liquid people tommy like the link had the link marines the solana people you know so there's a
solana man lids and shit like that when they come out for a term Lobby it's over
We're the hype dykes
No no no no
Tommy is there
Is there a term for
I don't think so but I just call them
Hype cells
Okay
Dude you were the original hype cell
Tommy you were like hyper liquid
Is the play of the cycle.
And the huge airdrop happened, and it went up like 22x since TGE.
Yeah.
At some point, perhaps there's going to be some shitters to gamble with on Hyperliquid outside of PER.
We actually had a couple of tokens on Hyperliquid last year go to hundreds of millions.
One of them was Vapor.
The other one was PER.
And then the other one, it was like a launchpad when LaunchCoin was going crazy on Solana.
I forgot the name of it.
The NFT marketplace was also going ballistic as well.
So, you know, what happens when this thing goes into the top 10?
How's on-chain going to be by that point?
But anyways, I think Josh is up.
What's up, brother?
How are you?
Yo, can you hear me?
Yeah, man.
Loud and clear.
Making sure the Twitter space ain't rugged.
I was getting rained on a second ago and running into the car.
Dude, good to see you guys again.
It's been a minute.
It's been setting up out here.
We actually just got a brand new media office at the ARK Investment Innovation Center.
So we're stoked, man.
The media has been really, really fun on this end. But markets, of course, brother, they've been incredible.
I mean, every single day, it's due to oil, I can't believe is the biggest meme coin in
the market right now. I saw some new guy that's been trying to short oil from like,
I think it was 84. And he's like the new James Wynn of oil. I swear to God, he's in like a $20
million short position. And he is just, there's no way he's still in the position because he kept adding to
it, adding to it, adding to it. I'm like, oh, this guy's getting cooked. And so it's just,
it's so funny to see that, you know, what was once something that a lot of institutions made
fun of about the crypto industry with the manipulation. And then now you're looking at
literally oil markets on a weekend move by literally factors of 40, 50 percent.
It's actually pretty incredible to watch. But I mean, you guys covered a lot in terms of politics,
the Middle East, you know, what may or may not happen. There's a lot of opinion pieces out on
like how long this war might be extended. And so I think what I'll just say is, you know,
what my focus is on right now, which is the attention markets. I think there is so much
money to be made in the next
six to 12 months. Sure. From an investment perspective, if you want to be somewhat cash
heavy, dude, I am so beyond bullish on Bitcoin and crypto. It's not only everybody from Larry
Fink to Palantir, Palantir and I think NVIDIA just announced their new intelligence system.
They're going to be running through an operating system. All these intelligence systems are going
to be utilizing tokenization and infrastructure with wallets and spending on chain.
And that's just where the future of the markets of these are heading.
So like in terms of like if you're trading altcoins, I've been a pretty big advocate of hype even since 26 bucks.
I think that's like the only tradable token in terms of revenue.
It is disgusting with how much revenue and volume it's actually starting to produce.
And if you're not a market or exchange, I'm even working with exchange partners right now.
If they're not going to look to integrate tokenized stocks or tokenized commodities,
they're just going to get left behind.
Because as everything starts to tokenize, that is going to shift the entire refocus
or retail focus of this industry.
And I think the biggest market right now that almost nobody's targeting,
but is the biggest market is the attention market.
I think attention is going to be somewhat of a new commodity, very similar to what Sam Altman came out and said, which was the most dystopian thing I've heard in a long time.
But it's for sure where the future is heading is that they essentially visualize intelligence to be a meter stick.
And for the middle class and poverty, they're going to be purchasing and renting just like you pull up your car into a meter and pay for parking. If you want access
to intelligence systems and these models, you're going to be literally paying for a meter of
intelligence. And what that means on like a 12 month, 24 month, 36 month outlook, in my perspective
is the companies that can actually control narratives and control attention. That is the
company that is going to be able to benefit off all the payment systems and
the infrastructure of that spending and that actual user.
In my opinion, the inventor of the meter stick isn't the one that's going to be making the
generational wealth, so to speak.
It's going to be the individual that creates the payment infrastructure that allows for
any user to scan.
They're taking a transaction fee off every single transaction happening within that meter
to integrate with that intelligence. So the reason why I'm just bringing all this up is I think like
a lot of people out there right now, there's a lot of fear mongering. We've been taking polls.
It's like, it's all rage. We don't know how long this is going to go. But at the same time,
there is bull markets everywhere. And while I am very skeptical of cash, it's definitely the intelligence sector.
I don't know which one's going to win, but if you're not studying and researching and
just getting involved with tokenization, there is going to be very, very clear winners.
I think Bitcoin, of course, is the easiest way to access that.
Long term, Bitcoin, we're at a quarter million dollars.
I don't care if that's two years, three years, four years, five years.
So if you're looking for a store of wealth and you just want to sit there,
it's Bitcoin. If you're trading in assets, it's, dude, we have Google cloud credits. We just got
350,000 in credits and we've been doing nonstop development with products that would have taken
years and teams of 20 to 30 to not only ideate, but launch and go to market. Like we're able to
launch these things and spin up ideas and products within 72 hours, uh, with full designs and backend and security and like
actual testing and real users. It's like the most incredible time I've ever seen. So the companies,
uh, we run a huge social media agency, people, you know, I would say from sentiment wise,
retail transactions. Sure. We're at the bottom in terms of sentiment, but when you look at the
payment side, it's at an all time high with stable coins and printing. And there is billions,
sorry, of dollars that is going into the payment infrastructure side. And if you go to,
I don't know if anybody wants a Hong Kong consensus. I had a few team members there.
No altcoins, all payments, all DeFi borrowing lending protocols. It's all going to be who can have the best transaction yield opportunity, whether it's on a tokenized gold or silver or whatever you're wanting to trade from a commodity perspective.
And what can offer the most yield?
And they're literally doing tests right now where AI agents are proactively chasing the best yield opportunities.
chasing the best yield opportunities. I would say like if you guys are holding on to old
traditional cryptos, I think 90, almost all these tokens that launch that raise hundreds of millions
of dollars and have spent the majority of the treasury, they're probably going to eventually
just go to zero. And the ones that raise a hundred million dollars here in the next year, two years,
three years, four years are integrating AI and all these systems. They're going to be just building
so fast you can't even keep up with them. And it's like, if you're not listening to Larry Fink,
quite literally just tell you, we need to tokenize everything. And you don't understand
that means that there's entire new structures and systems that are going to be embedded to this.
For example, there's rumors of like, what happened in Minnesota with all the fraudulent
spending and all these government programs? Okay, well, it's a new legislation passing
with these intelligence systems. What is going to be the AI program and how are they actually transacting and
spending in all of these different social programs that we're developing? There's going to be a
payment processor there. And all those infrastructure plays right now, like you should
be following Stripe. I really recommend everybody follow Stripes and turns on notifications.
Just watch where the payment rails are going to go. And so I think that's like kind of where I'll leave my conversation,
just where I'm focusing on this right now. It's 100% the investing into the attention markets.
If you're a company or an individual, you need to be actually ramping up as much production as
possible. It is getting easier and easier. And if you're not using AI to advance or automate your
social media posts, and I don't mean like, don't get a
generic chat CPT post. Like our agency, we have a full graphic design team, but it's cheaper than
ever to literally outsource to Indonesia, to Malaysia, et cetera, and actually run 100, 200,
300 posts per month and just garner all your attention and push from a top funnel perspective.
The companies that can actually attack the top funnel attributes are going to be able to launch whatever payment infrastructure spending program they want.
And they're going to be farming millions of dollars just off transactional fees because
they have a real access to a physical audience. And if you don't start doing that now as a
consecrate or as a business or a corporation, your competitors are going to do it in three
to six months. And I would say that is the highlight I'm looking at right now. There
is a bull run in attention and there is a bull run in tokenization.
Tokenization is hyperliquid, man.
That's the best way to capture those flows.
Zach, what's up, bro?
How are you doing, man?
Yo, what's up, Wabi?
I'm good, man. hopefully you're doing well yeah I agree with I agree with a lot of what
Josh just said man I feel like if we look at like the the recent winner like
BNB in the all coin space it feels like the crypto exchanges are becoming the
best performing tokens like these smart contract platforms have just let a lot of people down, you know, the whole
layer twos and like, just feel like there's so much stuff out there.
So like, you know, BNB, now hype and Robinhood, like it feels like just owning the infrastructure
outside of Bitcoin is, is kind of the play, um, moving forward.
is kind of the play moving forward.
And, you know, I think on the AI side too,
like what I'm kind of watching is,
are we going to kind of move from a lot of the AI stocks,
like the mega caps,
and move kind of more into the AI infrastructure side of things?
Like, you know, I'm trying to capture perhaps that momentum
over the next like six to 12 months. I feel like, you know, we'm trying to capture perhaps that momentum over the next like
six to 12 months. I feel like, you know, we're already kind of seeing that, that happen right
now. You know, the mega cap AI stocks kind of cooling down while some of the infrastructure,
you know, is starting to catch up and, and explode. So that's kind of just some,
kind of just some some things i'm thinking about man also on the tokenization front you know
some things I'm thinking about, man. Also on the tokenization front, you know,
i'm big on tokenization i'm just struggling i mean hype obviously but like i'm struggling to
where else do you go right i feel like it's so fractured like you've got a lot going on and
like then you had canton come in and basically just do what ando was trying to do in like weeks
you know what i mean it's like are they just going to do it in-house?
Like, does the stuff that's out there really matter?
Are they just going to go and take it in-house and build it on their own?
Right?
Like, so I'm struggling on how to capture, even if I want to go in that route.
You know, there's a lot of different ways.
I mean, Ethereum's in there, you know, Ando, I mean, you can go on and on.
Everybody's kind of got their play, but it's like, how do you navigate that? I think is like,
is kind of where I'm at there. I do think there's going to be some type of
convergence with crypto and AI. I feel like there's been a lot of freaking fluff over
the last couple of years. And there's some stuff that I think has come into a head. You know,
I still like Tau. You know, that's one that I think has some legs, but I think there's some stuff out there that probably we don't even
know yet. I think that convergence is real. I just don't know, you know, maybe the big players
aren't even out yet. To Josh's point, you know, some of the stuff that that will launch here in
the in the coming months of this next big, like big run up so that's kind of my uh that's kind of what's on my
brain man well i i i think we we can first start off and looking at um where people are going and
seeing how that reflects in crypto if we're seeing commodities go up how are people pricing that in in the crypto market
they're going on over to hyper liquid and uh i think um once the trade starts being consensus
there's really not much more to go um when you start seeing these TradFi guys starting to talk about Hyperliquid, like they started to talk about Ethereum last year as it blew through 4,000s, that's when the majority of the trade, at least in the short term, is probably done.
But we're probably a ways out from that.
Did you see? I meant to tell you this, too. Hyperliquid, the last 24 hours, a billion dollars traded on crude oil and coined 75,000.
That's wild.
Yeah.
I think on Deriv, there was an options block worth like 75 million.
So it's not much, right?
Like a billion in crude oil volume isn't really like, I don't think it's not much right like a billion in crude oil volume isn't really like i don't think
it's that much i think in equity land there's like there's a bit more than that um especially
when you factor in options and all of that but it's a start right it's a start um and that's what
you know will be it's not millions it's billions and hyperliquid is a platform that's what it will be. It's not millions, it's billions. And Hyperliquid is a platform that's barely like three years old. And it works. And there's no infinite loop risk like a Luna.
loop risk like a luna um there's no like sailor risk either where it's contingent on one entity
buying an asset because if sailor wasn't buying like where would we be right now
you gotta ask yourself that you're talking about um a block of buy volume well over a billion dollars and price has remained stagnant like all of sailors buys
over the last six months actually no let's actually let's be real here his buys over the last
i would say eight months mean nothing because if you think about it um the real top for bitcoin
it um the real top for bitcoin as far as momentum goes was back in late july where we hit 123 000
and then every month after that yeah we hit a new all-time high but it was only by a thousand dollars
and eventually we peaked at 126 which if you think about it it's not really much compared to 123.
And we just need more than just sailor right now.
But yeah, I think Hyperliquid is just going to be up and to the right.
During this environment where crypto people, where they don't really want to make a brokerage account.
They don't want a KYC just to speculate on oil right like I don't want to make I don't want to
make a coinbase account because I think you're actually able to trade equities
there now and I don't want to make a Robin Hood account either I don't want
to go through all these loopholes I I just want to have my MetaMask
and then bridge on over to the Hype EVM, connect it to Hyperliquid, and that's it.
Within two minutes, you're already rocking and rolling, trading global markets,
whether it's U.S. equities, whether it's commodities, you have it all 24-7, man.
Price discovery happens on Hyperliquid now.
It's kind of like, in a way, it's prediction markets for financial markets
because oil has reached price discovery on Hyperliquid during weekends
and then ShradFi prices that in.
So it's like, all right, if I see price action going on on Hyperliquid within a huge TradFi
asset, then I'm going to try to front run this in the equity market by buying some zero days,
which people probably did for oil when they saw that kind of price action happening on Hyperliquid.
So you don't even have to use Hyperliquid.
You can just observe it, observe the flows, and then use that alpha and apply it to your TradFi trade.
So that's what I have to say about that.
But if anyone in the audience wants to come up and talk shop, by the way,
feel free to do so. Um,
I will be doing market talk a little earlier tomorrow. Um,
I do have a doctor's appointment. Um,
that's probably going to extend a couple of hours, just a,
a long health thing that I have to do.
So I'll probably start tomorrow's show at like 2.30, maybe 3 p.m. EST.
And that'll be a shorter show.
So if anyone in the audience wants to come up, feel free to do so. I know today spaces are acting up, at least on my end.
I know today spaces are acting up, at least on my end.
But you guys can try to come up to request and I'll bring you right on up.
But is there anything else that you guys want to bring up?
Anything specific?
Josh, what are your thoughts on this Iran thing, man?
Do you think Trump is going to taco?
It just seems like this guy, right?
They call him the crypto president, and he's anything but that.
He's president, it's been anything but that.
And I think midterms are going to be entertaining, man.
They're going to be very entertaining.
And it's like there's a war going on, but he's talking about Powell lowering rates.
Which Powell at this point, he's ridden off into the sunset, man.
He's gotten on his Harley and he's gotten on the freeway.
He's gotten on the Freedom Expressway, man.
He is riding into the sunset, man.
You know, he's like, screw you.
I don't work for you anymore.
You know, he just has a month and a half left in his contract, and that's it, man.
He's just going to chill in the building and just talk shit, I guess, and hang out.
Yeah, it does seem like he's trying to, I mean, even Donald Trump tweeted out today,
like, where are you at? And it's, you know, I don't expect him to cut rates magically to 1%
overnight. He hasn't done it yet, and I don't think he will. In terms of the chickening out
thing, you know, it's like, what's happening in the Middle East is so interesting, because there's
What's happening in the Middle East is so interesting because there's so much noise out there on the Internet.
so much noise out there on the internet.
I'm not an intelligence officer. I can't see what, you know, the Department of War or Palantir can see.
What I can see is that, you know, in terms of like leadership, we have now removed the Supreme Leader twice.
So, you know, we've gone in and
done incredible damage. If I'm looking at this from a nonpolitical perspective, this is positioning
the United States to be not only just the world's superpower for the next hundred years, we're about
to control everything from the Strait of Malacca, the Strait of Hormuz, to now Venezuela, and even
the Panama Canal. And so the long-term perspective off this does look like it could be really good,
but the short-term implications of, you know, whether we're going to see boots on the grounds or operational effects that actually end this quicker than longer, I have no input on that in terms of anything from an intelligence perspective.
There's so much data out there. I think that anything we're doing on these spaces is more or less, unfortunately, just going to be a lot of LARPing just because we don't have all the information. And it's just like we're in a world
right now where there's so much misinformation and there's so much information been released at once.
All you can do really for the Middle East is hope it ends soon. Because what you brought up was what
I would pay attention to, which is midterms. The Trump administration right now, especially from a funding round, is losing the
midterms exponentially. Right now, the Democrats are at an 85 percent, not guarantee, but a
predictional rate from Kalshi and Pauli market that they're going to take over the House. And
if the Democrats take the House, the problem with that is we're right now witnessing, and this is
something that a lot of people talk about, but AI is replacing very specific jobs right now.
It's not replacing blue workers, it's not replacing service jobs, it's replacing primarily coding and usually industries that you went to college for from a democratic basis and you now are in $100,000 in debt and you're trying to literally battle AI just to keep your job. And what that's
going to do to a voter base in two to four years is very concerning, because what you need to
realize is a lot of these AI companies are heavily conservative, at least they've been huge donor
parties to the Trump administration. And this is spoken on by Alex Karp and a lot of AI experts.
And why that's important is right now, like in terms of the AI intelligence advancements,
it's like, where is our spending going to go? Where are the investments going to be released
into? Because if it stays the Trump administration and they're not dealing with just being impeached,
if the Democrats take the House in midterms, the next two years of Trump's administration,
he's not going to get anything done. It's going to be nonstop political waste. It's going to be
nonstop taxpayer waste. They're not going to actually be able to impeach them, but they're going to just continue to try to force it. And so now you're at
a point where you kind of fall back into what I'm concerned with would be like an operation
choke point situation where none of your legislation is benefiting any corporation at that
point. The individual is just wasting their taxpayer dollars and you just have political
chaos because due to the
disbursement of AI, whether people like it or not, the number one industry that's going to be
invested into, it's not necessarily technically even artificial intelligence. It's not going to
be gold. It's not going to be oil. It's not going to be any of this. The number one investment
always and forever to the United States government is going to be national security.
And so whatever is most optimal and most important to the National Security Council is ultimately going to be what
is reaping the most rewards and benefits. And in this case, it is artificial intelligence.
And so I know this is kind of a tangent on that, but it all goes back to like what's happening in
the Middle East right now. The most important attributes are just simply, in my opinion,
who's going to control the energy and the tokenization and infrastructure of AI in the next few years.
That's Oracle.
That's Palantir.
That's NVIDIA.
They're launching intelligence surveillance systems.
And sorry about that.
I have some guy that just got into my car and his plane, Tucker Carlson on blast.
What the heck, man?
But that's kind of where I'll leave that off with, Wabi, is I don't know how long this
will last.
I think that the Americans are going to honestly take control of the situation.
We have taken out both supreme leaders.
It's not going to be easy.
But at the end of the day, the one that hurt this, this hurts Russia and China way more, in my opinion, than it does the United States.
There's people out there that are going to LARP and say, oh, you know, they're doing this because of Israel.
I don't think that's the case at all.
Like if you're actually putting this on a playing field and who does this really benefit? Sure,
it benefits Israel, but ultimately from an energy sector and world dominant sector,
there's only one clear winner behind this on the long end. So I don't know. That's kind of where
I'll stop. I don't want to keep ramping because again, I think there's so much important data that
no one on Twitter or Instagram or YouTube have that is intelligence data, AI.
Like, I guarantee you there is literally surveillance data out there right now from like 8K satellites where they're just zooming in and see what's on your cell phone right now in the Middle East.
It is a crazy, there's cockroaches walking around with AI units on their back now.
It's like there's miniature, there's literally mosquito-sized drones
that are being developed.
I think there's a lot more that meets the eye here.
Yeah, that's why I don't really think pigeons are real, bro.
You know?
It sucks that they're so real now, bro.
Yeah, dude.
Like, dude, you say certain things bro and then you like you see a
pigeon pop out of nowhere dude oh boy um but anyways man you know when we talk about surveillance
and national security and all that stuff i look at something like ethereum and a palantir
they're not too far ahead in valuation and i
ask myself like dude if surveillance and if big brother is going to come to fruition and
the matrix is going to be real we're going to have a bunch of agent smiths which
we already do right you talk about certain things you have people blowing up on you and then you're
like damn you weren't like this when i first met you it's because agent smith is within them and so
how do you bet on that right it's palantir you look at the case for palantir against eath
bro palantir destroys it by a long shot which one is which one has a faster momentum trade to
trillions and market cap i would say palantir and then eth um well it's also it's also like
you know let's let's just even play game theory here right let's say worst case scenario we do
see boots on the ground you know it's like and you do see a prolonged war you do see us taking
you know that prolonged war is going to start on the straight of hormones that's the first area of
iran that the united states is going to take control of because we're going to want to open
up that oil way again we're taking control of. But now we have boots on the ground.
It's costing us billions of dollars per day. The United States government is going to do one thing
and one thing only. That is print a disgusting amount of money and, in my opinion, lower interest
rates. And so now, even if you do get to that point, that might be where we're heading. Because
if Trump can't take midterms, I would imagine why not push the boots on the ground situation?
You're going to be able to play so many different executive orders and different executive powers that it will help his administration get things done over the last two years. those tactics. Insane money printing, more investments into AI, Palantir, Oracle, all of
these different US contractors are going to print hundreds of billions, if not trillions of dollars
in value through government grants for intelligence programs. And I don't see how, and if you go back
to 2000s, right, like just like overlay Afghan, like what happened in the Middle East the first
time, you know, it helped with the employment market. Inflation costs came down, printed money. We just printed money to oblivion. And we saw a massive bull run for like five or
six years. So I don't see like a lot of people are projecting like if NVIDIA and the stock market
rolls over now, I actually think that's going to happen if we don't see boots on the ground.
Unless we see some crazy left field agreement where Iran folds and the United States gets some crazy contract and we get a multi trillion dollar investment in the Middle East and we take over the, the straight of hormones.
It doesn't seem it's that easy. It does seem like the Trump administration has underestimated the power of Iran.
But again, I think that's like a, I'm just, I don't know why people want to sit here and speculate on that.
I'm like, I'm, how do I protect my wealth right now? And in my opinion, that's have some in cash, have some in Bitcoin, have some in gold.
I would not touch oil with a 10 foot pole right now.
If you're doing that, you're just a degenerate that probably lost money trading meme coins and other stocks earlier on because we it's everybody's seen it.
Every single day, Donald Trump coming out and literally tweet out the straighter whore moves is open.
There's no mines there.
And then also the next day, 14 mines exploded. two boats sink in the Strait of Hormuz, oil
production down 20%.
I'm not playing that game.
The game I'm playing is the very clear one, which is AI is going to succeed.
National intelligence matters most.
They're going to invest in national security.
And that involves tokenization and in my opinion Bitcoin and whatnot
so I have to hop out of here, but I love this conversation while me it's good to be back
Definitely follow everybody just listen in here. This is by far the best space. I'm ever a part of every single week
Evan you crush up here Zach you crush up here some amazing panels up you guys make sure you follow everybody
But why we just want to say thank you again for having me up and hopefully I'll be on this again later this week with your brother
No problem, man.
Thanks for coming on, brother.
If anyone else has anything else to say, feel free to do so.
Otherwise, I think it's a great time to wrap up.
Honestly, we talked a lot of stuff in regards to price action,
narratives, all that good stuff.
But Zach, Evan, Ghost, anything else you guys want to say?
Not really.
Like, good takes there from Jake, obviously.
Yeah, definitely oil is sketchy right now.
But XLE is almost not the worst thing.
But, yeah.
Based.
Well, guys, I'm going to go ahead and wrap up the show i want to thank snorlax naka evan ghosty
zach joshua thank you all so much for joining me shout out to all the speakers shout out to all of
you guys in the audience but guys if you enjoyed the content that you've been listening to
over the last two hours my name is wabi and the show that you're listening to right now here on
x basis is called market talk i go live here monday through friday whenever the stock market
is open between 3 30 to 3 45 p45 p.m. ESC start time.
And we talk all things markets.
That's why the show is called Market Talk.
So whether it's Bitcoin price action, altcoin price action,
TradFi price action in regards to U.S. equities, commodities, precious metals,
we talk about it here.
Usually with a set panel of speakers, we give our takes.
It's usually most things price action,
lower timeframe, made timeframe,
higher timeframe stuff.
Sometimes we talk narratives,
something further out into the future,
things that could potentially happen.
So if you enjoyed today's show,
want to keep up with what we do here
and want to keep up and tune in
with our future shows,
go ahead and follow the Because Bitcoin account.
I understand that some of you
may be listening to the recording because spaces was giving me issues.
So I'm assuming some of you had issues joining or have been kicked out of the space.
Sometimes that just happens with spaces at times.
They're not really perfect all the time when we go live here.
But we manage.
That's why we have all of our spaces recorded in case we do have some glitches that occur here on X spaces.
But I want to thank all the speakers once again.
Guys, make sure you follow all the speakers and follow Because Bitcoin account.
And turn on bell notifications once you follow the Because Bitcoin account.
not only so you can be made aware of when it is that we go live here on these spaces,
Not only so you can be made aware of when it is that we go live here on these spaces,
but we also do strive to be one of the fastest pages on X when it comes to reporting real-time
news, when it comes to all things markets, whether it's crypto or TradFi. We try to be
very consistent when it comes to posting it in real time as fast as possible. So you guys can
be up to date with not only
price action and narratives through these spaces but also when things happen in real time through
our posts so not only do we have spaces for you guys i know it's a lot free news free spaces but
we also have for those of you that enjoy video content, we do have a YouTube channel that's also caused because Bitcoin.
We have a show there called Market Check, which is also hosted Monday through Friday with the usual start time of 1130 through 1140 a.m. EST for our start time.
And that show is usually a little bit shorter than Market Talk.
bit shorter than Market Talk. That show is usually done for just over or under an hour,
and that focuses primarily on all things technical analysis. So if you guys are onto all things
charting, feel free to tune in to that show. So we have shows for you guys in the morning,
and also for those of you wrapping up your afternoon by 4 or 5 p.m. EST or 6 p.m. EST. I'm not sure how the conversion
is to some of the other time zones, but I mainly go by EST. But we have something for you all,
whether it's video, whether it's through audio, whether it's written-based content. But for those
of you that want a more private experience with the community, we do have an inner circle alpha group via discord link to that is in our bio.
Once you guys click that, you'll see some of our testimonials from our members that have been with us for the last few years.
And once you check out any of our packages, feel free to DM us with any comments or questions.
I will hook you up for your first month of your membership.
Whether you message the BecauseBitcoin account or my personal account, which is up here on the panel as King Wabi,
you guys can go ahead and message those accounts or any of our affiliates.
You can message Snorlax, Hagrid.
You can message Louie.
You can message Max,
and they'll get back to you within 24 hours
and hook you up with a discount for your first month.
Multiple channels in there covering all things markets,
private live streams,
which are archived in a separate channel.
And we also have our own trading terminal
called BB Terminal up in our bio as well
so we have in-house products whether it's community whether it's toolkits to help you execute with
better precision in the markets we have uh free live streams here on x and youtube so think of
us as a swiss army knife of a company um when it comes to all things markets and we hope you
find a home here at because bitcoin whether it's through our live stream content whether it's through
our premium content welcome welcome feel free to tell our friend to tell a friend about who we are
and what we do here at because bitcoin and uh we hope that you um stick with us for our future shows
and uh feel free to follow all the speakers.
Once again, follow the Because Bitcoin account and we'll see you all tomorrow.
But as I said earlier on the stream, I will be going live about an hour, maybe 30 minutes earlier.
I will be going through just some medical screening stuff that I have to do, which is probably going to take a lot longer than anticipated.
So that's why I'm going to be starting the show a little bit earlier.
But once again, thank you to Zach, Evan, Ghosty, Naka, Josh, and all the other speakers who participated.
Thank you. Thank participated. Thank you.
And make sure to follow the BB account and all the other speakers,
guys have a good rest of your Thursday or Friday.
And we'll see you on the next one.
Bye bye.
Take care. Thank you.
