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Market Talk-OIL GOING PARABOLIC?! NEW LOWS FOR STOCKS SOON?! ITS OVER?
Recorded: April 7, 2026 Duration: 1:44:12Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. so
Oh Oh Walk along the razor's lip. Don't look down, just keep your head.
Are you finished?
Open up the limit.
Past the point of no rhythm.
Reach the top of the steel. You gotta learn how to keep it. Oh Crash the gates. Crash the gates.
Going for the back of the yard.
Now clean on the stock, it is nothing that's wrong.
So close now, you're nearly at the brink.
So you're pushing.
Ooh, yeah. Welcome to the limits.
Take your baby one step more.
I was getting still playing, so we better win it. We love you. music I'm going to go to the next one.ん Music Welcome to The Limits. Oh yo what's going on guys welcome back to market talk it feels great to be back with every single one of you guys i hope you enjoyed
the long easter weekend man i know um for one thing first and foremost i am uh grateful to be
back i am so grateful and uh i'm happy that uh you guys are back listening to the show. I hope you guys are doing well. Thank you so much
for joining. I, myself, I went on a retreat, got back technically this morning, and
man, I'll be honest with you guys, man. I nearly got into a crash. I was like an inch away from
something that could have been catastrophic, but God is good.
And I'm here with you guys and we're going to serve up a cook session, man.
It's a few days into Q2 and we've got some volatility.
We've got some incredible volatility in these markets.
You know, I didn't really take a look at the markets over these last few days. But
I mean, just looking back, Bitcoin did retest just over 70,000. ETH still above 2K. Solana is
basically doing nothing over the last few days. It's just been pinned to that early 80s mark.
We do have the equity markets ripping into the clothes and uh
the most important thing the elephant in the room guys is oil this thing has made yet another higher
high i think it's about like seven percent away from retesting the 2022 highs and about 10
percent ish 11 percent away from uh claiming the highs that it hit on Hyperliquid.
I understand that price discovery on Hyperliquid doesn't really count, but I mean, if we just
take a look at the price action that's happened with other assets like silver and gold, how
they traded on Hyperliquid over the weekends when equity markets were closed.
Prices do tend to catch up. I've mentioned that hyperliquid is kind of like the CME for
the CME gaps for equities. And what I meant by that is if you guys remember over the last
few years, specifically like 2023, 2024, Bitcoin would always fill these CME gaps at the upside or the downside.
So that's kind of how I see Hyperliquid.
Sandisk back up to range highs.
That thing has just been absolutely incredible.
Solaris still doing nothing, just hovering in the mid 50s which i mean i hope at
some point that thing um moves but i mean everything has been ripping into the clothes
i'm not sure if um this trump taco that's going on is actually gonna go through um but one thing
to take note is anytime oil does reach a parabolic top, which in this instance, it really seems like it's about to do that, where you probably see oil gap up by like 15%, maybe even 20% in a day.
And that ends up being the top that does usually result um in a volatility blowout so perhaps you know a gap down
on the s p will probably happen btc probably retests range lows and that'll be the bottom
right um if this war does continue to go on which i really don't think it's going to happen
if anything that's going to create some stimulus that's happened in many other wars before.
But for the short term, that would mean some pain in the market.
I'm still not of the belief that there's going to be this like huge,
drown out, year-long downtrend.
These markets have been proven that there's always going to be a bull market somewhere
over these
last few months. You've had AR hardware doing quite well with things like SanDisk. Energy has
also done well. Oil has also done well. Commodities like gold and silver have done well. So it's not
like 2022 where you only had one asset moving. In this case it was basically puts and um those few
months where oil had um that incredible upside move towards 120 125 i think it was um so the
breadth is a lot more in this market which is honestly fantastic um on chain there have been a few runners um specifically
on eth mainnet there's actually a few things that have been running things like can x which is some
privacy thing rallied to almost 40 mil so maybe that's a sign that hey things on chain are about
to be pretty good or at least there's going to be some sort of action.
It's not exactly tied to just Solana.
But, I mean, to really get enthusiastic on chain,
you would have to see something rally well over 100 mil.
If you guys remember earlier this year when that Penguin token was rallying,
a few things on chain actually did catch
some breadth shortly after that um and when eth utility runs right if we just take a look back
last year when things like kta ran i was kind of the start i guess uh the on-chain run that we had
from march of last year all the way to September when it ultimately
concluded with things like Aster. It was Aster and then Avantis on base and that was essentially
the end of the cycle but if we even take a look back further to 2023 pepe is what started really everything but the conditions were
so much more different man so much more different um tokens weren't launching left and right every
few minutes back then um there were only a few tokens that were created back then probably only
like a dozen tokens were created every other day back then specifically
on ethereum but now because of pump fun and some of these other launch pads tokens are created
probably every minute on the minute um if you just open up your deck screener every day
you'll see new tickers mint and they have these ceilings of one mil two mil and that's liquidity that could be poured in
to majors for example and that's why when you pull up your coin gecko or whatever um whatever
coin ranking site that you use you check over the last seven days and it's it's essentially flat um it's essentially flat you see solana same price over
the last week same thing with eth same thing with btc but that's not exactly the case for uh for the
equity markets right um yeah i've been mentioning how the volatility that we're seeing in the equity
markets at some point will come back to the crypto market because the volatility that we're seeing
in equities is basically volatility that we've gotten used to in crypto over the last 10 years.
And at some point, that volatility comes back. We saw that in 2023 back we saw that in 2023 we saw that in 2020
and if you guys even take a look at the second half of 2019 for example the crypto market was
basically as flat as a pancake after btc went to sub 10k where there was equities they were
straight up and to the right tech was tech was mooning while crypto was in this strange, apathetic, crabbish, bearish market.
And I think one thing, at least, that BTC has going for it since we bottomed out in
early February is the fact that we do have a higher low structure.
We do have a higher low structure.
And that is the bull case that I have for BTC in the short term.
And also the fact that it's not really getting affected by oil, at least not yet, right?
2022, or really any time we've seen oil continue to outperform, BTC does take a stab.
It does take a slap to the face.
But we've been ranging for about two months now.
And that's how long these ranges have lasted since
we topped out in october so um this probably resolves very soon jerome powell does leave
office in the next few weeks kevin warsh comes in uh we've talked about the prospect of volatility ramping extreme extremely as wars gets in and probably his
first week is going to be filled with intense volatility um and at that point you know he
probably does his own thing and uh changes monetary policy but in order to do that, we're going to need some more downside, probably. SPX isn't that far off from its
all-time high, but I would like to see the SPX at 6,100 by the time he gets in. And that
way, there's an excuse to juice the markets. I think 6,100 is a bit too high, maybe something like 5,900, 5,800, something like that. And we don't have
to make new lows for ETH or BTC. We could just potentially just retest range lows. And that's
pretty much it, right? We saw that kind of price action where equities make new lows, but our market doesn't really do that. Again, we saw that from
August to October of 2023. And I mean, I remember during that time period, it was insane as PX gapped
down towards, I think it was 4,000 and prices just refused to trade below 28 eth refused to go below 1300 and soul
started gapping up and you know i i have talked about hype over these last um couple of months
and i think for this cycle at least which i think by this time we should call 2023 to 2025 last cycle and
call this new sort of price action the next cycle. And I say this cycle because now practically
everyone that's active right now is also trading equities via hyperliquid.
And that's something that we didn't really see from 2023 to 2025, at least up until like
December, right?
That's when people started going on hyperliquid and trading gold and silver.
And now we have those people trading oil, right? And recently we did
have the SPX and the Dow Jones launch perpetuals on Hyperliquid, which is incredible, honestly.
But as far as price action in the short term for hype, I mean, they did just have a pretty massive unlock,
and that's why you should always be trading FDV.
You're always trading FDV with altcoins,
but it's still valued less than Solana.
It's still valued less than BNB,
and I think there's an arbitrage there
at least for the next like two years from here
until the next halving, which ultimately I think that would be a good place
for the next market peak.
And the reason why would be you are going to experience a halving cycle
with this Trump administration and a ton of money is going to be poured
into crypto.
I think the SBR is going to go live probably in the next like year and a ton of money is going to be poured into crypto. I think the SBR is going to go live probably in the next year and a half.
And what better way to have the next market top be the United States buying BTC?
Just as this cycle we topped after having a quote-unquote crypto president, right?
Trump's entire campaign for the youth for Gen Z was crypto and cutting a lot of red tape.
And we got an incredible cycle.
We got an incredible cycle.
If you were on Seoul, even if you were on base you did uh quite
well but um i'm gonna have uh some of the usual speakers on market talk join probably by like 4 30
4 45 as always guys but i got prometheus here with me he hasn't been on the show in some time but
before i do that guys if you guys can go ahead and show some love to the stream, show some love to BB, guys.
Best way to do that is by clicking the spaces tab.
Once you guys click the spaces tab, you'll see a nice link that says x.com slash i slash spaces.
If you guys can go ahead and hit the the like button hit the retweet button guys
thank you all so much for joining whether you're here live in the audience or listening to the
recording i want to welcome you all back to market talk brought to you by bb my name's wabi and as
always we're going to do our best and uh not only entertain you guys, but also cook. We're also going to cook massively.
And one thing that I'll mention about oil is that it's not really in front of retail's faces like gold and silver was.
That is something that is a bit different.
That is a bit different from these two specific rallies.
I don't really think oil has ever been an asset that retail likes. I've never
spoken to someone that just plays markets casually and has ever spoken about oil at all whatsoever. I think the most beta that I've talked to someone about
equities has been miners, things like Mara, even things like Iron, for example, right? I
have had conversations with people at the gym about things like iron, things like hood as well.
And oil has always been an asset that is really only traded during moments of uncertainty and there's some sort of war escalation, right?
And Bitcoin was supposed to be that sort of asset, right?
But for now, the thing to really pay attention to with BTC is just the strength that uh that it's maintained like if we're still trading in this range um
within like the first week or two that warsh is already in office kevin warsh who's supposed to
be the new fed chair that was uh selected by president donald trump then at that point we're probably bottomed
we're probably bottomed by that point at least until post-summer probably until like
september or something like that um over the last few years september has always been this
insane volatile month actually no it's actually August, excuse me.
August, the post-summer has usually been quite volatile for the markets,
especially if we're in a range.
Coming out of the summer, there's usually some form of massive breakdown.
And if anything, we've seen over the last few years, you could see the S&P
gap down by like 15%, 12% from where we're at right now, and we'll be at new all-time highs
by the end of the year. That's just the kind of volatility that this administration brings.
And one last thing that I'll say about crypto before I pass it over to Prometheus is that
it's been almost 13 months.
No, excuse me.
It's been almost 15 months since Trump and Melania coin came into the market.
And that was essentially the on-chain top.
Since then, ceilings for coins have just been lower and lower.
That was essentially the death blow.
Kind of like how Luna was the death blow for, I'm pretty sure it was for NFTs.
NFTs, NFTs were still going crazy leading up to that.
NFTs were still going crazy leading up to that.
And that was like the event that truly destroyed any kind of breadth in the market, at least
breadth that we were all used to in the crypto market.
And since Trump and Melania coin launched, even though in 2025, we had things like hype
and Bitcoin and ETH and BNB going into price discovery,
the breadth in the market wasn't really vast. Unless you were playing in base utility and on soul memes,
you didn't really do much at all last year in your portfolio
outside of making a lower high.
You take a look at Solana, Solana made a lower high um you take a look at solana solana made a lower high but
that's what i have to say about that and about a year and a half after luna went bust that's when
volatility came back into the market that's when brett came back into the market. That's when Brett came back into the market, excuse me. And times were
fun. And before that, BitConnect. BitConnect destroyed the entire market in January of 2018.
And then going into the summer of 2019, things were absolutely lit. So if we just take a look at
what the market has done about a year and a half after something catastrophic happens into the market.
We can just use that as a frame of reference to when good times probably come back.
Take a look at FTX as well, right?
12 months after FTX, the market was lit and there were things to do.
and there were things to do so i have a saying that i've been saying on uh on this show for the
last three and a half years and that's if history is any indication right we can use as a frame of
reference and time times will be fun um history doesn't repeat itself but it often does rhyme
that's what i say but anyways let's go ahead and cook.
Prometheus, what's up, man?
How was your long weekend, man?
And how are you feeling about, you know, we're a few days into Q2,
oil's ripping.
How are you feeling about oil specifically, bro?
I guess we can start off with that.
And welcome back.
Thank you for having me back.
Feels good.
Feels good to be back.
I did not expect for spaces to be as thin as they are coming back, man.
It feels like spaces got cut in half.
I'm looking at people across the timeline.
I'm just looking at all the spaces out there,
and the crowds just seem thin. So I appreciate one, everybody being here, who's here right now.
But starting off on oil, man, I mean, not expecting the move that we got out of oil.
I kind of got in front of the freight train a little bit trying to get back into the flow state
i was looking at what gold did earlier like at the end of last year beginning of this year
where it had its big parabolic blow off and then we kind of came up and retested some of that you
know upper end supply and then you saw it really roll over obviously you know down pretty significant off its highs
i thought oil was going to do something to that nature i'm just i was looking at it and i'm like
the structure is so similar there's no way that you know the trump admin allows for you know oil
to stay meaningfully above you know a hundred dollars and boy, was I wrong. I woke up the next day and the thing went
from, I think I started to size into a short, glad I didn't get full size on it. And then I woke up
and it was at like 112 bucks. Uh, and I see people on the timeline calling for kind of ridiculous
prices, you know, just again, makes me feel like as kind of the contrarian i don't know if i want to use that word
but just it's kind of like the you know we'll take the opposite end of the you know the stick
i'm just like man i should probably be you know short some oil here but the thing has been
relentless to the upside obviously with the macro regime i know it's a hot topic
but same thing with silver and gold, man. I mean,
you remember back then, everybody was talking about silver. A few months ago, everybody was
talking about silver. A few months before that, everybody was talking about gold. And in a few
months from now, we'll be talking about something else. It's just kind of how the markets move.
Money flows from one asset to another. And just when everybody thinks it's going to a million bajillion dollars, you know,
it's probably time to look for another asset to get longer just to be allocated into or at least
be in cash if you've been in from lower prices. I have a tough time with crypto here just kind
of with the equity backdrop. Equities kind of just seem over the Trump administration at this
point is what I'm getting from the VIX
and volatility is remaining heightened.
That tweet earlier today was insanity.
I mean, I won't really go into too much about that,
but what that creates for the market,
you know, is just continued uncertainty.
We get the quote.
He said he's going to destroy an entire civilization which
dude that that would that would cause a covet style drop if that actually happens i don't
think the market would rip i think i think anyone that is in in calls or is in leverage in crypto
you'd probably see this the same exact event that we saw with the yen carry trade and probably have some form of debasement and QE the moment war steps in, man.
So it wouldn't be fun for anyone long term.
I don't. Yeah, I don't think so either.
I think you would hurt like the majority of the world economy.
And I mean, to be going on social media and like bragging kind of bragging in a way
about genocide is a little insane um but uh i mean man it's just like i don't know if the market's
really quite priced in what's happening to oil right now because oil is arguably the most important
asset for the broader global economy right i mean we're talking about transportation trucks use
diesel uh to freight goods around right uh you want to talk kind of across the board we're
talking you know trains we're talking airplanes we're talking everything you
know people and things get from point A to point B using gas right it's very
very important I don't know if the markets have really quite priced in you
know the effects of what has been occurring as of right now I mean I was
in Southeast Asia a few weeks ago and I saw some of the effects, right?
You know, hour, two hour long lines just to get fill up, you know, your scooter with two gallons.
It's it was crazy. They're rationing gas.
And a lot of people our age don't recognize that.
But it's very similar to the United States during the oil
embargo in the seventies, right? Where American citizens had to, you know, camp outside of gas
stations to wait for them to get shipments and deliveries of gasoline. That way they could fill
you know, it creates a lot of distress within the economy, but not to get too doomerish more. So I'm
just trying to paint the overall picture that it's really important to kind
of view gas as the you know it is the lifeblood of the economy and when prices get to where they're
at you know a lot of people stop you know shipping as many goods right goods become more expensive
um you know margins thin for companies meaning that their balance sheets and their earnings
necessarily aren't as strong and i don't think that's something necessarily the economy's quite priced in yet,
especially if we're going to, you know, if oil prices are going to remain heightened for an
extended period of time. I thought they would have folded earlier than they have, but, you know,
kind of Trump's MO is he can't, you know, he can't lose the battle. He can't lose the deal. And so
they could drag this out you know longer than
i would than what i initially thought or expected but uh looking at crypto obviously we've held 66k
several times at this point that was kind of my line in the sand uh and we've held it we've held
it we've held it we've held it and if you just look at bitcoin and crypto as a whole not in
re not in relation to equities and everything else that's going on, you would
expect that we're pretty damn close to the bottom. But we do have to kind of take those other factors
into account, which is very important. The lows, I will say, are not the sexiest lows we've seen
on Bitcoin before. A lot of people are comparing what we're seeing now to the crash that we had back in 2018
down to 3000. I can see the comparison. Is it going to play out? Is it actionable to a T
from a similarity standpoint to the 2018 bottom? We'll see. But I look at names like Tesla and
that's one name that I've been short in the discord from about 410 roughly. I remember the
Sunday that I got short tesla and
kind of started took a little bit of profits on that but you know losing significant support here
losing the 365 day rolling vwap losing the 180 day rolling vwap right that to me signals with
the retest that we had yesterday underside retest it's you know confirms to me that we had yesterday, underside retest, it's, you know, confirms to me that we're now probably
at least Tesla that is, is going to have to go find new value quite a bit lower. And Tesla has
never faced the amount of distribution that it's about to face with the SpaceX IPO, right? I mean,
that's $1.75 trillion IPO. Now Tesla is no longer this, you know the Elon social token, right? They're declining car sales,
kind of the list goes on and on and on. I look at Tesla kind of as the flight away
from risk and to safety, in my opinion. And I do think that commodities are going to do very,
deep in my opinion. And I do think that commodities are going to do very, very, very well.
In the next few years, I'm actually looking at a few names specifically, interestingly enough,
I know we joke about soybeans, but like soybeans, wheat, rice, sugar, coffee, I think that commodities
kind of the soft commodities are going to do really, really, really well here moving forward. The reason why,
you know, from a macro perspective, I really couldn't give you one, but just from a dark
perspective, I think that they've had a multi-year, you know, reaccumulation. And
if we're talking about capital rotations and flows, right, fertilizer, obviously being kind of talked about with the straight-of-home moves
being closed fertilizer prices are probably going to increase maybe that's the reason why food prices
increase but i think food prices look or not food prices but you know the soft commodities do very
very well here moving forward and that's kind of what i'm looking at uh to your point, I saw that one network that went to 40 mil. I did look at kind of
the, you know, the tokenomics, the distribution, it didn't look that good. And I just kind of ask
myself right now in regards to alts, and it's been my motto, really, since we've been in the 90k
range is all stone bottom until Bitcoin does, you know, and until then, I don't think we're really
going to see necessarily a meaningful runner. And Wabi you remember pepe did very very very well after bitcoin bob bottomed and
after we got conversation the phrase that pepe was born in the bear market is the most ridiculous
phrase i've ever heard ai tokens went 10x render agix uh fat uh tau was going ballistic as well
um even nfts were starting to go crazy pudgy penguin specifically milady's were popping
off man that's another thing too milady's and remilias were in price discovery um dude i forgot about that yeah man like people were flush
with cash from from remilias and um mladies uh pudgy penguins were going crazy as well
uh metaverse tokens also starting to bounce up nicely um nasdaq was straight up and to the right. So it was also after the Fed injected the market after SVB and Silvergate and First Republic all went under.
So it happened under stimulus.
That's the thing.
It happened under stimulus.
And I don't think Pepe conditions will probably happen where everyone piles on to the
same ticker uh same thing with whiff i don't really think that's that's going to be the case
and also like you know as far as on chain on soul like how are people expecting a billion dollar
runner on solana when pump isn't even trading at a billion in market cap. I think that's kind of ridiculous.
If you want on chain to do well, you would need, man, how about this?
If you want to gauge on how on chain is right now,
just take a look at the pump chart and the pump chart kind of looks like
Solana when it was doing nothing in Q3 of 2022,
when it was range bound between 25 to 40 bucks
and then it had that monster blow out to the downside which is it i'm not saying it's going
to happen to pump but like i i i just can't ignore the the similarities um and i think that business model for pump pasta has to change which
i mean they are trying right i don't think you're able to deploy uh a ticker on pump fun with the
same name so they're kind of taking away the whole like vamp situation where multiple people would try to vamp a a runner on chain with uh with the
same name which has happened already uh a few times um i think you dropped off man i'll send
you um another speaker invite if anyone else wants to come up by by the way, feel free to hit that request button.
Just open the spaces tab and right to the bottom left, you'll see a mic that says request.
Just come on up and I'll bring you on to the stage.
Ghosty, I see you down there, bro.
If you want to come up and talk, I'm sending you an invite to speak right now.
But Prometheus, go ahead, man. Yeah, no. Can you send you, I'm sending you an invite to speak right now, but Prometheus,
go ahead, man. Yeah, no, can you, can you hear me first of all? Yeah, yeah, I hear you, man.
Okay, sweet. Yeah, I mean, I'm just like, man, I'm like looking at kind of a lot of these charts
and to your point, man, we saw, we saw runners before we saw pepe and you do need that wealth effect
like you need a reason for people and for money most importantly more so than just people for
money to go into some of these names or to go into altcoins and i think there needs to kind of be that like forgetting period where people, you know,
are able to kind of heal from their battle wounds, right. They're able to heal from those, you know,
traumas that they experienced this cycle with, uh, with on chain and, uh, and how the behavior was,
uh, the, how the behavior was on Chainman.
And if you get that time and you get the kind of like rejuvenation period,
I think there will be plenty of opportunities moving forward as we go into the end of 26 and 27.
But truthfully, I think 27, just based off of what I'm seeing from a chart perspective,
is probably going to be the more likely spot to start looking to acquire things. Because if you
if you know, if you're trading last cycle, and we're going into the bear market,
you know, what were people buying, Bobby, they're buying uniswap right they're buying chain link
they're like these are gonna do well next cycle right and those did like what maybe like 3x off
their lows chain link did like maybe like 4x or 5x but how long did you have to hold those before
they even moved right and that's kind of the question i pose to everybody is like okay if you are betting on
something why not just wait and let the market show you that the market actually wants to you
know bid it and that there's going to be fresh liquidity that comes in because the hardest you
know the hardest thing to get right is timing and asset selection. And so to make sure that you're getting your timing
correct, why don't you let Bitcoin shows bottomed? And two, to get your asset selection correct,
why don't you just wait and let the market show you what it wants to bid? And then you kind of
solve that problem, right? Then you avoid the opportunity cost. You
kind of avoid the having to sit through significant drawdown because that can be hellacious. You know,
a lot of people that bought, let's say like a towel, let's say a render, let's say an injective
early on, you know, you'd have to at points sit through 20, 30, maybe even 40, 50% drawdown periods,
which is hellacious, right? Before you even got your 10, 20 X's. And to avoid that, you know,
that difficulty, just capture the meat of the move and the meat of the move happens, you know,
not off of the lows, right? But it happens when the market shows you or tells you that it wants
to actually bid X ticker up. So that's kind of how I'm approaching it. I don't want to paint
myself in a corner saying that, you know, I know what's going to be the hottest runner or what
everybody's going to love in, you know, 12 months from now or 18 months from now, because it's very, very difficult, right? You're literally searching for a diamond
in a field, not a haystack, a field, right? And that's extremely difficult to do. And so I'm just
going to kind of trade the charts here moving forward. But that's what I'm seeing, man. I'm
just seeing like a lot of, you know, risk kind of coming off the board, continually coming off the board.
If the market's telling you it wants to continue to do that, great.
If we start to get some reclaims like on the ES at 6,800, you know, I think that's kind of like my bearish line in the sand as you start getting above 60 above 1600 on the es it's probably you know a signal to me okay we've gone past whatever
issues the market saw you know there was uh and maybe we just we've come out of this and
you know it's all fine and dandy who knows uh but just kind of trading the
charts right now dude what are your thoughts on hyper liquid on chain man that is going that is
probably like the dark horse for for this cycle yeah i think we should i think we should brand like
aster and all that stuff and how does trading on chain how does trading on chain for hyperliquid
work like is that even a thing yet i don't even know yeah it is it is um i think you just go on
hyperliquid and you go on spot and you see select tickers like that that's how i bought vapor
when ai was going crazy that's how things like vaporapor when AI was going crazy. That's how things like Vapor were bought.
HFUN was another one.
I think they made a GCR token as well.
I think it was called HCR and that went to like 40 mil or something like that.
Vapor went to almost 200.
Hyper went to almost 200.
PER went to like 200 as well.
Per went to like 200 as well.
There was also a launchpad platform that I talked about on Spaces last spring
that just went absolutely crazy as well.
And there's also a pump fun type platform, but it's auction based, right?
I mean, I guess you can call that the same thing as bonding.
I'm not even sure if
it's still around anymore i think it's called hyper fun but yeah that's that's how on chain
works like there's now last cycle going in like going into the bear market or in the bear market
with solana on chain like did you know about that it was it was dead man um
uh i remember when i first joined bb in december of 2022 there was a space that i did with trader
xo and it's on youtube right um and that was the day where solana hit eight bucks when I did that stream with XO. And it was either the last base of 2022 or the first base of 2023. And that space went from like 7 p.m. ESC to like 11 p.m. ESC, something like that.
And then XO was like, why would anyone talk about shorting Sol at these levels after it went down like 95%, right?
And that's when I'm like, you know, I think Solana actually does have a chance.
They have that phone thing coming out.
And back then, I mean, I guess even now, right, like the concept of a phone for blockchain and crypto would be stupid right but I mean
that's kind of what I formulated hey it's the potential where so on chain
could be a thing and I think it was the summer of 23 or coming out of it I
found neon and then I was also looking at bonk which I honestly regret not
getting bonk at those
levels. And the only thing to do on-chain was just Radium. That was... Radium and Orca, that's where
most of the liquidity was. But I'm pretty sure most of the liquidity was on Radium. And then to
buy Neon, I had to buy like 50 bucks worth, 20 bucks worth, 75 bucks worth at a time because liquidity was
so damn low, no joke. Or you'd have to make a Bybit account. Even then, like the liquidity
was kind of thin. So on-chain wasn't really a thing. It was not. That didn't happen until uh the uh the saga phone came out in october of 2023 so that was
the second solana phone model and that came with a couple hundred bucks in bonk which turned into
like 10k 15k or something like that uh a few months after that that's what really started on chain, that phone.
And then with as well, that was really the start of it all, man.
And I would say the organic top of the cycle was probably when Pepe first reached like five to six bill.
And after that, it was kind of like this euthanasia roller coaster, which funny enough, man, that's when WIF topped out as well around March of 2024.
And that was kind of the start of on-chain, dude.
And then we saw that aggressive mercenary-style rotation coming out of that bottom in 2025 of the last year um if we didn't have all that rotation stuff
happened dude troll would have gone to a billion easily easily would have gone to a billion um
but coulda woulda shoulda right um i think that's how hyperliquid on chain is right now it's kind of like solana and it's the only investable token in
crypto outside of uh outside of bitcoin i agree with that yeah i think it's more investable
than solana i think it's more investable than btc you know i say that dude dude the the the
boomers are gonna come out and they're gonna
come out with their with their with their pitchforks bro why they should understand
how to read balance sheets they understand that hyperliquid you know makes more money than
you know anything else in the anything else in the the market right now outside of the scam you know raises that these projects do I mean if
you look at this right okay if you invest in BTC like you buy BTC right now
right and you're like okay so you're buying it let's say let's just say 60k
right to keep the keep the numbers nice and even and round and like what you're hoping for because
i mean i think it's maybe gonna go to like 180 maybe 2000 or 2200k by 2029 right so you're like
at most gonna get a% return on your investment.
And I mean, it could take a long time or you could look at Hyperliquid, right. And the valuation it's at,
and let's say it goes in and matches a Robin hood valuation, um,
or Coinbase valuation. And you know,
you could easily capture cause I mean, what is, what is Hyperliquid trading at?
Right now? It's trading at like almost 40 bill ftv and if you really want to make
a comparison um i said this in february when i really started pushing hype when it was trading
at 21 and i was begging dave levinson to at least buy like a bag that's like one to ten percent of his deployable capital for risk dude i remember
that yeah i yeah dude i mean like anything that's mentioned here on market talk aggressively has
done well like this isn't some like biased show it's not promoted by any entity at all this is
raw thoughts from real traders um and if you look at the net revenue, okay, if you want to talk books, if we want to talk
real tangible progress, if you look at the net revenue from Hyperliquid compared to the
NASDAQ, and the NASDAQ has been around for decades, right?
NASDAQ made just over five bill in net rev, okay?
So you're talking about something that's been live probably as long as most of us have been alive, if not even more, okay?
Nasdaq made just over five bill in net rev.
And Hyperliquid, which is a platform that's not even five years old, okay, made net rev of just under 900 mil.
That is massive. That is huge. That's an arbitrage trade if I've ever seen one.
So that's something that people can take a look at. And the thing is, okay,
this isn't like Pump Fund, which is just a beneficiary
of a bull market. If what we're seeing right now, right, this is an on-chain bear market. Pump fun
isn't really making as much money as they could. In a thriving bull market, oh my gosh, dude, pump
fun probably goes to the top 10 easily. But if you want to look long term okay um hyper liquid is it that that that would be it so
that's a good comparison that you can use prometheus and as far as i mean what it what it
has over like pump fun is like pump fun is the causation of a bull market right like pump fun is the baby of a bull market right
um and it's extremely reliant on that bull market where hyperliquid is entirely independent of
market conditions unless the market goes completely sideways and there's zero volatility i mean it's obviously dependent on volatility but
it's not it's not dependent like like from what we've seen from almost every single other token
leading up until this point right um like ethereum last cycle is product of a bull market right
you want to talk about nfts the product of a bull market on chain the product of a bull market, right? You want to talk about NFTs, the product of a bull market,
on-chain, the product of a bull market, right?
The list goes on and on and on and on,
like airdrop season, same thing.
But, I mean, Hyperliquid is entirely,
entirely independent
and in its own class, arguably,
within crypto.
I mean, if you're asking me,
I mean, I think Hyperliquid can go 250 bucks by 2029 easily easily if not far if not sooner i mean i probably by like the end of 27
um but it's i mean going to be dependent on like equities as well
and like broader economic conditions, you know.
But regardless of that, I mean, I think Hyperliquid is, like you said,
probably the most investable asset in crypto right now, even beyond Bitcoin. Because like, I mean, Bitcoin, I mean, you want to talk about like a systemic risk right now.
I mean, regardless of what you want to think about uh like a systemic risk right now i mean regardless of what you you
know you want to think like sailor like it's it does not seem healthy when somebody who's you know
farming yield you know farming volatility on an asset and he was having to you know, mass market his fund, STRC on like YouTube, Facebook, like that feels weird. Like
it feels like something's about to happen. If you know what I mean? Like, it's generally not a good
thing. Um, when, you know, a big, big, big, like essentially money manager is like holding out
their, you know, their pan and they're like saying like hey throw
a few dimes in it please it's kind of it doesn't it doesn't feel good let's get some thoughts from
chill chill what's up man welcome how have you been how was your long weekend bro what's up guys
now just just uh listening to the conversation good conversation uh that you guys were having. You know, fully agreed.
You know, on our stream, we've been watching four assets, four majors, just tracking price action.
Right now, I'm looking for outperformers, and hype was literally the first one that caught my eye.
After, in January, we had that breakout of the multi-month downtrend.
Hype just looked like the strength was going to continue. We saw just more evidence of that,
especially as you look at the numbers, you see that oil, for example, that was a big asset that was traded gold, silver. And at one point, there was more
volume on non-crypto native assets than crypto assets, right? So I really think that Hyperliquid
can do very, very well. And it's one of the four majors we've been tracking.
And it's just crazy because it doesn't seem like in this market we
have too many great options as far as long-term investments are concerned, but such is life.
I mean, overall, just generally speaking, thoughts on the market, where we are um i'm looking at the bitcoin chart right now we're
at 69.2k we're uh closing in uh at we're closing in at the top of a um a multi-week uh multi-month
excuse me range that we've formed here between call it uh 66k and 70k call probably 65.5 and 70K.
So we've been kind of ranging here.
And when you're ranging, if you're at the top of the range, you're bearish.
If you're at the bottom of the range, you're bullish.
I mean, that's more like short-term price action.
So right now, we're going into the top of the range.
I still think there's a ton of liquidity to grab
sub 60K. So eventually I'm looking for a move for Bitcoin going below 60K. I'm not sure if I
want to commit to a 50K, a 45K, a 40K. I'm not going to get greedy. We've spent the last five to six months, I should say five to seven months going down
only, basically in a straight line.
And only over the last several months have we decided to, at least on Bitcoin, go sideways
a little bit.
So I'm thinking that either A, we break below this range and we then travel towards sub 60 K. But after five to seven months of price action, I mean, a bounce is logical, right? Like even in bear markets, you have bear market rallies, you have relief, you have relief bounces. We saw that.
We saw that in times past. So I wouldn't be surprised to see a bounce here if we can make it above this range. We can start getting some closes above 71, 72K 70.8 if you want to be a little bit more specific, I'll be looking for signs of rejection, signs of reversal above 71, between 70 and 80K.
If Bitcoin decides to make it all the way up there, I'll be looking for signs of rejection and reversing back down.
If we're at the bottom of the range that we're in right now,
let's say we're closer to 65.8,
I'm looking for either A, us to continue being in this range,
or again, the base case going sub 60K.
So I think right now you don't get too cute.
Don't be a hero.
Don't try to live a trade actively.
I've been very vocal on the timeline about not trading new pairs, not just giving your
money back to the market, not giving your money to the pump fund serial deployers, not
giving your money to the scammers.
Unfortunately, as a space, I don't know what brought us to this place
but we've glorified the absolutely wrong figures we used to we used to glorify people that you know
held for you know 50 100 200 x um and and huge upside but now we're glorifying people that you spend $10,000 on multiple wallets buying a sub-10k market cap token on PumpFun and writing it up
and then dumping on a stream audience or on a Discord audience or on a Telegram or on Twitter
retail followers or copy traders. Our space right now, unfortunately, is in a really
bad spot. Every bear market, we're in a really bad spot. So it's not, you know, anything that is
outside of the normal in terms of what happens in bear markets. But it is something to take note of,
something to make sure that we're not at the mercy of uh at the mercy of right like we don't want to be uh giving
these serial deployers these scammers our our capital we want to preserve that capital for
better days so i've been stacking some tokens um and chilling mainly life maxing if you will yeah
bro have you seen what ray has been deploying man it's like ah dude if if if this if ai ran earlier in the cycle this thing would have
gone to billions but yes like dude if anyone has ever used ray like this thing destroys chat gpt
this thing is better than clod like it is a tangible product um but i mean base probably doesn't get a bid until eth is above like 3 000 or or or or if it
for whatever reason hits like a thousand and then rallies from there because dude we saw the rally
that eth had last year which was insane it went from 1300 to new all-time highs in four months and um there's not really like any supply overhang with something like ray
and it's a ticker that always does good whenever eth catches a big bid and we've been talking about
ray on the show since it launched in 2024 at like five mil four four mil. But dude, are you keeping up with like crypto AI
and stuff like that, man?
Yeah, I haven't kept up with Ray as much,
but around the same time Ray launched,
we had a string of like really good launches
that we called out on the show.
Like one of them was Serve.
I don't know if you remember Serve.
You also called out that one that Anatoly shouted out, man.
I forgot which one.
Griffin.
You called out Griffin at like 10 mil, and it went to like half a billion, man, in like less than a month, dude.
People underestimate the velocity of launching.
If anyone was in my telegram, they caught it at a mil and we didn't even know what it was.
We just knew the timeline was buzzing about it.
But those are really good times, man.
But yeah, back in those days, there was also another great call that we had, which was serve.
It went from like sub five mil to like 100 mil, something like that.
But really great.
And apparently they're still building.
And right now they're catching a nice little bid because apparently some of their models are working much better than OpenAI.
They're beating some of the, or not some, but many of the mainstream models out there.
So, yeah, I mean, I'm still keeping up with AI on chain.
I'm really focused on some of these agentic experiments happening on Solana.
I've noticed that on Solana, they're more centered around memetics, whereas on something like base, it's more like infrastructure, right?
You have banker. That's more like the compute layer for the agentic economy.
You have a few others as well, like VVV as well, that gives you, I forget, is it access
to cheap compute or something like that?
But I know VVV is a really good one.
But yeah, I mean, AI, that's going to be a space that continues to grow.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, he said it right.
Most transactions that happen on chain will be AI agents.
So it's just a matter of watching and waiting, seeing where the money flows.
I'm seeing a lot of interesting projects, but I'm not seeing any follow through.
The market isn't bullish on anything in particular.
And I think that's just more so because of the bear market.
But making a list of these good projects, keeping an eye on them as the bear market
progresses along.
And at some point, whether it's a relief rally to push these prices up or maybe we bottom
and then we start reversing on Bitcoin for, you know, some at some point there's going to be a tailwind for these assets.
And it's just a matter of making a list of them and watching to see what the
market bids and to see what the market is interested in.
Facts, bro. Facts.
I think AI kind of gets like a bad rap in crypto. It's like, oh, dude, like move on, move on.
That happened in 2024, right?
But I mean, dude, Banker hit an all-time high earlier this year.
I think it was late last year.
That's not Unk.
Ray hit an all-time high.
Ray hit an all-time high like eight months ago, in like august and july um tibber went
to like nearly half a billion so it's like tau as well subnets went crazy a few weeks ago so it's
it's like if we were to compare defi to ai right it's like no comparison because when defi was trending everything was going up
um because of monetary policy so what happens when low interest rates come back and quantitative
easing ai is going to be the one that like hyper accelerates because i just think the average
person is going to look at these valuations and i understand that people in markets think the average
person doesn't know what evaluations is because they think everyone that doesn't bid markets is like room temperature IQ for whatever reason.
open AI and it's like, damn, dude, like I'm not going to make money on an asset that's
trading at like a trillion dollars in market cap or whatever it was, right?
Or whatever it's going to be.
I mean, let me just see what's going on in crypto.
And they're going to see all this stuff going on.
And I think memes and crypto are just going to be the main drivers in crypto for the foreseeable
in crypto for the foreseeable future.
future.
I mean, total crypto market cap is like, I mean,
the real valuation for the crypto market
is probably at like a trillion.
That's what I think.
I think it's like half of what you see
on CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap.
Because one, a lot of these altcoins are just dead
and they're traded by bots.
And two, liquidity, right? A lot of these altcoins are just dead and they're traded by bots.
And two, liquidity, right?
Just because Bitcoin is worth a trillion in market cap doesn't exactly mean there's a trillion dollars within Bitcoin, if that makes sense, right?
So, yeah, I think it's going to be memes in crypto.
And I mean, Joe, you're pretty active on Solana right war went to 70 mil and these market
conditions yeah KNX right even if KNX is top dude you still had an ETH utility token go to 40 mil
when was the last time we saw an ETH utility token blast off and I'm talking like eath okay this is not soul it's it's eath it's been some time
right the last big runner was was kita so which we caught on these spaces these spaces as well
shout out uh i think prometheus got that one uh so shout out him but um but yeah man i mean i
agree with you i think uh meme coins will probably have their time in the sun here.
I mean, that's been the staple narrative alongside AI because of the, you know, call it the pessimism of the space.
Call it, you know, whatever you want. A lot of people have lost faith in, you know, utility tokens.
And that's kind of brought us to this question of, like, why hold a token?
So you see a lot of, if you are in the Solana ecosystem or even on base, there are some launch pads there as well that do this.
But there are, you know, launch pads focused on making it worth holding a token, right? Whether it is
there's some that are doing equity backed, some that are doing ownership, some that are doing
futarki, some are anchored with debt, some are anchored by equity. So there's a lot of these
different models like spinning up because the question was asked,
why should I hold this token? What makes the token valuable? And when the answer is nothing, you get the price action that we got over the last six to eight months, which was basically
down only. And so that's the filter that everyone should have on this market is why hold the token?
At some point, that question will be asked.
And if it can't be answered, then that doesn't mean much for price.
That's bearish for price.
So what I would say is watch as these launch pads build.
Meteora on Solana, they're building the bedrock.
It's called Bedrock Foundation, but it's basically equity-backed tokens,
and they have a legal plumbing and legal structure to back that.
I think that's a very interesting narrative.
And so while we wait for that narrative
to get the adoption that it needs
and get the traction that it needs in the market,
I mean, it's going to be meme coins, in my opinion, man.
Those are the things that it needs in the market. I mean, it's going to be meme coins, in my opinion, man. Those are the things that have been moving. And if you look, if you guys remember from last year,
I was one of the very few bull posting fart coin here at the bottom in early last year.
And I ran that one up to all- time highs. And I think it's still
something that I'm bullish on. And it's still one of the, it's one of the majors that I track
on my stream as well. Because again, I just think that the room for, for upside on, on meme coins is,
is, you know, it's pretty high because that's the first thing people go to, right? It's the first thing
people go to, whether they want to scam or they want to buy something that they want to hold long
term or whatever. That's the other thing. Meme coins, people think that they have this ideology
around meme coins. Oh, it's bad. It's scam. No, it's just a vehicle, right? Same thing as stocks in the dot-com bubble.
People just added dot-com to their name, but the stocks and the companies were essentially
worthless.
It's no different with meme coins.
The barrier to entry and to scam and to grift was relatively low.
The activity was pretty profitable.
was pretty profitable. And so people on top of glorifying these grifting figures,
people got into the scamming era. That's where the phrase crime is legal came from. We saw that
and then you had the president doing something similar. And so it just kind of encouraged the
wrong activity and meme coins and get a bad rap for that.
But I don't think the, I don't think that is a very core piece of what,
you know, meme coins offer.
I think it's just a matter of finding ones that kind of attract a large
community and, and, you know, affect real world culture.
I think Farcoin is one of them.
Man, we're talking about markets right now,
and there is so many news headlines
that are blasting out of Iran right now.
It seems like something big is probably going to happen
in a few hours, in like two hours, I believe.
It's 8 p.m. EST, right?
Is the deadline that Trump has given Iran to respond?
Yeah.
Yeah, and apparently it's going to be announced
on every news broadcast station in America.
It's all going to be interrupted and stuff.
That is something else, bro.
Everyone's mad because their american idol or their
uh whatever else is getting interrupted yeah um it is a shame though like this
this presidency has turned into like probably the worst thing ever um i remember i had my
suspicions about this administration around this time last year like
last march february when they were buying all coins through world liberty fi at that point i'm
like yeah this this dude is like it's just a grift but i mean he's great for headlines right
if you play markets as far as headlines go and you have that insider information it's good right
and when he was telling people during every massive low, every local low,
it's a good time to buy stock, that was, like, incredible, right?
I just hope all this stuff just ends, man.
Just like last year, around this time, the tariff stuff ended.
Like, this is, like, a major inflection point in my opinion
i mean this year it's iran america last year it's tariffs the year before that um or actually no
earlier in the cycle it was ukraine versus russia like these things are you know These things are inevitable. I don't know if you saw the, there was a chart that talked
about how Gen Z has resorted to gambling to get ahead because they feel like the only way
to get ahead in this world, the only way to own a house, have a family, get where you want in life is to take risk and to essentially gamble
their way up in life. And so I think the world is going to get more and more chaotic as time goes on.
And that will drive people to more and more, you know, risky and erratic behaviors. And,
you know, in finance, we see that trend happening with,
um, the, and that's the whole thesis that's kind of connected with hyperliquid as well, right? The,
um, the, uh, the, um, the purification of the world essentially, right. And being able to trade
anything at any point, uh, permissionlessly. Um, and that's, that's why hyperliquid, I'm so bullish,
because it gives you access to any asset. Essentially, you can earn off any event.
That's why prediction markets are so bullish. But the proliferation of gambling in the real world
is that type of behavior. That's bullish for the space, right?
And, and as long as there's fear and greed exists, you know, there will continue to be opportunities
on chain. I think on chain is still going to be the best place to generate wealth
for a very, very long time. You have other, other places, right? people gamble on things like draft kings on rain bet or on prediction
markets or what have you but ultimately you know on chain is going to be a great place to provide
some of the most asymmetric gains that you can have in the financial world so I continue to
prioritize you know staying on chain and locking in versus, you know,
being a doomer like many people are. But I am like you very, very tired of these headlines,
of conflicting headlines, of manipulative headlines. It's all very tiresome. So
don't forget to shut it off sometimes, guys. Don't forget to shut it off sometimes guys don't forget to shut it off
real evan what's up bro welcome back how was your long weekend man it was good man it was good always
great talking to you wabi who's good talking to you guys um yeah i mean i you know i i don't follow
the news that that closely but you know it looks like some shit's about to go down or something's
gonna happen i mean i guess the pakistan the two week I mean my guess is here that is that I mean you
at least calm down or get the pause for a few weeks you know there's always everything with
Trump is subject to negotiation and you know most things in life are subjects of good negotiation I
mean you could negotiate more stuff in life than you'd think. I mean, I know from firsthand experience, so I guess that's a good thing.
I think that, you know, we're seeing the market react a little bit towards it, you know, Bitcoin jumping back up.
We jumped up quite a bit, $300 on Bitcoin, you know, in the last, I don't know, 10 minutes or something.
So that's pretty cool.
You know, if you look at it from a technical standpoint, which is what I care about more, um, I think you still would lean a little bit more bullish here.
Um, 72 K there's a lot of liquidity there, a lot of shorts just waiting to get screwed.
I think, um, right there.
And then potentially your year today anchored VWAP is at 75.
So if you get good news here, um, and all that, you'd probably come up now.
Other topical things, oil is obviously topical.
This could be it for oil you know that could be a little bit of a double top type pattern here starting to roll
over starting to lose a little bit of momentum i mean obviously anything can happen uh you know
i'm not saying to short this um you know i you know the thing too is like i would say for all
the people trying to short oil like if you weren't knowledgeable enough to go long on oil before it pumped or go long on XLE before it pumped, then you probably aren't going to be knowledgeable enough to do the harder thing, which is shorter at the right time.
But, you know, you're getting there.
I think it's a little bit premature now, but you could be starting to kind of roll over.
It's, you know, kind of rejected at that point.
The same thing, too, I think that would follow oil potentially going down is your U S 10 year, you know, that hit, what was it?
4.47. I could see that potentially being the top here and us rolling down, you're losing a bit of
momentum. You know, we got to see what the hell happens geopolitically, but you know, let's keep
a more positive outlook. I think generally, you know, when you look at Trump generally, when,
you know, people like me and you Wabi, you know, get so annoyed with it generally, you know, when you look at Trump, generally when, you know, people like me and you, Wabi, you know, get so annoyed with it and, you know, Trump's own supporters get
so irritated with him, usually he starts to, you know, fold and do what they want him to do. So
I think that's kind of what you're looking at right here, that potential. And I think this,
you know, hopefully it should be, you know, over. Betting odds are always that this would be over,
you know, by June. So I still think, you know, that kind of that, you know, over. Betting odds are always that this would be over, you know, by June.
So I still think, you know, that kind of that's what I would go where the money is,
go where people are putting their money.
In terms of right now, you know, what's attractive in the market.
ETH is getting a nice jump.
I think that's going to continue to upperform.
Bitcoin, that looks pretty good.
I think, Jill, you got a hot mic there.
Thanks.
But, yeah, BM&R, too, you know, that looks pretty good. Double, you Chill, you got a hot mic there. Thank you. Thanks. But yeah, BM&R too, that looks pretty good.
Double higher low, I like that.
I've been selling cash secured puts on that.
MicroStrategy too.
So a lot of this stuff looks pretty good.
I mean, always as an investor or trader,
you're trying to find what looks attractive to you right now.
What looks attractive to me, BM&R looks pretty attractive.
Ethereum looks pretty attractive.
Bitcoin looks pretty attractive for the long term term you're getting more and more potential bottom
signals you know you're getting more and more of those potential bottom signals i you know i think
it's probably gonna be a crab market for many more months but you definitely could have bottomed so
you know what works well here dcaing selling cash secured puts stuff of that nature in more of a cravish market.
You know,
I mean,
trying to think,
you know,
what else looks attractive?
I mean,
it's mainly shit like BMN are riskier.
You don't know what the hell you're doing,
but there's stuff like that,
you know,
S and P 500 itself as well.
You know,
that's jumping up.
That could have been the bottom if all goes well.
I think the longer the spy stays above 650,
the more likely that you could have hit a bottom. But obviously, people listening to this space,
we have no interest in the goddamn S&P 500. We're not actually buying that. You know what I mean?
We're just looking at that as a metric for how healthy the market is in general. So there's that.
I mean, I'm long on Bitcoin. I chickened out a little bit. I closed half of my position for a
small gain yesterday because we lost some point that you know, some point that I liked.
But as of right now, I'll stick with more of the bullish side of things.
Market looks good.
I think we can get up to 72K and rail all those people trying to short.
So, yeah, I mean, that's what I got.
Go ahead.
Hey, Evan, I got a question for you, man.
So you said there's a lot of liquidity to grab at 72K.
I'm leaning towards, even if we get a rally, right,
I'm still looking for a sub 60K price on Bitcoin at some point, right?
Like I see that there's a lot of liquidity to grab to the upside.
I see the SFP that we just recently printed on the two day. day so obviously you know bitcoin looks like it wants to go higher here but are you thinking
this is this leads to like a full-on reversal or do you feel like this is just kind of like a relief
rally and then we go back to to crab market yeah no i think we're going to reject from either 72
you might be able to get to 76 but it'll probably be somewhere like there.
And then you go back to crab market.
You could lose.
I mean, there's a lot of look.
I mean, in terms of, you know, liquidity is not always going to tell you where price is
going to go, but there's a lot of liquidity at 65K as well.
I think you'll at least, you know, retest that at some point.
I think you're going to like go to the low 60s and probably hit like your 200 weekly
SMA at some point.
I think that's right around 60 right now. I'd have to look at that, um, again, but yeah, I mean, you could lose that. I don't
know. I would lean slightly more bearish that we bottomed out, you know, just based on a lot of,
you know, my charts and my, how my metrics look, look and work look right now. So yeah, I would
take more of the optimistic route, but I think it's, you know, any price, like a low 60s is an interactive buy.
I think 70K, you know, if you're willing to hold two, three years, you should at least be able to make a new all-time high.
I think that's pretty good.
I mean, you know, if you're looking for a freaking, you know, 5 to 10x or, you know, more than a 2 or 3x, like, yeah, I'm sorry.
Bitcoin's probably not going to be that.
It's going to have to be either MicroStrategy, maybe BMNR, HyperLiquid,
maybe, you know, if you can trade those altcoins, you know, doing it the right way, you know,
you just got to freaking not get railed. If it you're, you know, so many of these altcoins people
were so bullish on the last few years, they're down literally 98% against Bitcoin. You know,
that's the problem. Like if you're, if you're altcoin has no momentum against Bitcoin, you
know, there's no point. And I think that's the mistake I'll admit I made, you know, quite a bit.
And a lot of other people have made that mistake.
So that's the thing there.
So, yeah.
Got it.
Got it.
No, I was wondering.
Yeah, I'm the same.
I don't, you know, I think we still have some chop to churn through over these next couple of months.
But we've seen it happen these last few years where we kind of pump into going into May.
Last year was a great example of this pump going into April, May, perhaps even June.
in June. Let me actually just double check the chart just to make sure that I'm thinking correctly.
Let me actually just double check the chart just to make sure that I'm thinking correctly.
Yeah, we pumped from early April all the way into July and August. But yeah, I mean,
still though, we had some crazy on-chain price action during May during that pullback. So I'm thinking maybe we do something like that.
We've been doing it for a few years. I know in 24 and 2023, the phrase was sell in May and go
away. And if we did that, we would have actually made the right move. So I think this year we
probably bring back sell in May and go away, despite how it worked out for us last year. Um, so yeah, I mean, a move here to, you know,
in my opinion, up to, up to 80 K is what I'm okay with. Um, but yeah, I definitely see,
you know, maybe at, at most here, 75, seven, um, is kind of where we of where we're going to push up to at most
if we can make it there.
And then, you know, I'll move back to sub-60K.
But I'm going to be a huge, obnoxious bull,
and people are going to get tired of me down there.
That makes sense, man.
Yeah, because if you look at it from a monthly perspective,
like April probably looks good for April right now. So if we can get up to 76K, then maybe a Kravish. it makes sense man yeah because if you look at it from a monthly perspective like april probably
it looks good for april right now so if we can get up to 76k then maybe a cravish and slowly
go down then you would see a may correction back to the low 60s it would make sense yeah and then
summer is always freaking cravish as hell like summer is just go away sleep you know what i mean
like summer i don't think you're gonna see much and then probably after summer like come august september or probably september october then you could start probably a
quarter four rally back to like 80k maybe even 90k if you're lucky like that's the way i've been
kind of mapping it out just like hardcore crab market until like quarter four and then you get
some relief back up to 80 90kK or something of that area. So, yeah.
100%.
Man, I think this is the bottom for market talk, man.
man i am pretty confident this has to be the bottom because right now everyone who's active
I am pretty confident this has to be the bottom.
on the internet is tuning into what's happening in iran or the iran and u.s conflict right
so i think this is like the bear market bottom dude um but whatever happens today like it's gonna bring more eyes into the
market in my opinion we're either gonna gap down that's the thing right like there's this funny
saying oh crypto bros i know what they're talking about could go up could go down well today is like
that that exact same meme coming to fruition because whatever happens is probably going to be extreme.
But I said this on one show before, right?
Like if World War III actually does happen, I think Bitcoin just starts gapping up after whatever downside that hits when people just start selling it.
um that's my dubious take though man um yeah i'm not gonna tune into anything until
That's my dubious take, though, man.
probably trump starts talking which again it's probably gonna cause a lot of volatility man
uh yeah that's that's the that's the narrative right now that's the narrative and you would
think like trump coin would actually be showing some signs of life.
But this thing is just flat.
It's just, like, flatline, man.
Yeah.
I was going to say, like, some people are bullish on World Liberty Fi.
They think it's going to be, like like XRP or something like that
where at some point it does catch a big bid
but I think they kind of
put all their chips on the table on the wrong things
like Bonk Fun didn't really work out
and World Liberty 5 was like backing them up
bigly and they kind of just
self imploded because they didn't really
support anything in their own ecosystem they fumbled so hard bro yeah yeah they did so hard
they did man they did they did i was seeing wabi based on what you were saying social risk i think
there's a few people that have metrics on it like ben cowan's got one of those like it is so low like it's lowest ever like it really is like when people are saying crypto twitter's
dead like it really is and i was like going down the rabbit hole in this and like the the gen z
interest ain't into like they're going more towards what shill was saying like about like
poly market and that type of shit like the gen z interest is not into like get rich quick anymore
like not at least not in the crypto sense because when you see like all coins like they've all been
in a bear market like since 2021 most of them most of them even since april of 2021 so you know
it's literally five years now like i mean you know i mean maybe if you were 20 years old you were into
that or you're 25 you're into that now you're 30 like you're onk maxing now you know, I mean, maybe if you were 20 years old, you were into that, or you were 25, you're into that, now you're 30.
Like, you're onk maxing now, you know what I mean?
Like, you're not into it no more.
I mean, in my opinion, though, like, isn't that what's supposed to happen?
I mean, you don't really see a lot of, like, a lot of the Gen Zers,
the younger crowd, really take to things like bonds or even stocks.
Stocks, I mean, they were popular, you know, for some time.
And but but even even that didn't really generate a lot of interest from the younger crowd.
Right. So like as crypto gets adopted by TradFi and as you know, they kind of eat away at the Wild Wild West
opportunity, it's less of the Wild Wild West and it's becoming more and more regulated.
The suits are here, essentially.
Bigger institutions are here.
Bigger games are being played.
On top of that, you add the scamming and grifting nature of on-chain.
It just doesn't appeal to the younger crowd anymore.
But that's what's supposed to happen.
When it's less of a wild, wild west, it's less cypherpunk and edgy,
and it's more structured, regulated,
and it's just this more formal market,
that's going to deter some participants.
And that's okay, in my opinion.
I think that's fine.
We just have to, as traders on chain,
number one, continue to get better.
But for me, at least, every bear market,
pick up another skill, right?
So each bear market, like right now,
I'm DLMMing on Meteora.
It's a great way to trade on chain. You're essentially being a market maker and earning
fees on some of these volatile assets. But yeah, I mean, as we get access to all of these markets,
and we integrate more deeply with TradFi, you know, the more you can access on chain, just the better you'll need to be at
trading. So it will turn off the younger Gen Z generation. But for those of us who kind of lock
in and actually want to be good traders and not just scam you know, scam and grift on CT.
You know, for us, this is a prime time to make good use of the downtime
and really sharpen our knives, if you will.
Yeah, definitely.
It's such a different ballgame now.
Like, it's definitely, yeah, because it's, yeah, yeah, every, yeah, that makes sense.
chain now so it's not just it's not just buy hold and wait for retail it's um it's a completely
different game so so yeah there's you know we just gotta we just have to move with the market
man just gotta move with the markets what we talk about on my stream all the all the time you
you don't trade the market you want you trade the market you have and uh evan i've seen you on
stream too a few times man man. Great job on stream.
Really good breakdowns there.
Yeah, thanks.
Yeah, thanks.
I appreciate that.
Yeah.
I mean, that's the biggest thing you learn over time.
You know, trade the market you have, not the market you want.
And I mean, you know, I think the thing was, like, you know, one of the biggest, like, smartest decisions I made was I basically kind of panic sold like it
it was the plan I was going to follow but back towards the end of October I just kind of panic
sold all my alts you know at pretty much everything you know I kept obviously some Bitcoin you know
because it's Bitcoin but you know I got really bearish on that and you know I converted some
in S&P 500 you know boring shit like Berkshire Hathaway gold. I was in, you know, gold, I was up 30% on, and I converted that back over, you know, into, into crypto,
like two, three weeks ago, something like that. I got lucky with finding the kind of the top there.
It was kind of based on how it looked against Bitcoin. Um, that's why I converted it over to,
but you know, it's kind of just following that macro like that's the big thing there um and
that's the easiest thing like i think that the average person could probably learn to do because
you're not making you know you're maybe making one trade every few months or something like it's not
a crazy crazy amount of it and i think that you know because like i looked at that account and
that or that all those things that converted you know from crypto over to you
know all those things i mentioned gold s&p 500 boring stuff it outperformed bitcoin by like over
100 since then so you know essentially just that gold trade i was able to get double the bitcoin i
sold back just by converting you know gold back to bitcoin now and that's like good enough for me
and the same thing with xle i got into that around january sold half of it you know, gold back to Bitcoin now. And that's like good enough for me. And the same thing with XLE. I got into that around January, sold half of it, you know, like last week and probably should
sell the other half. I'm waiting for a few more momentum changes, but if I had a bet on it,
hopefully the geopolitical stuff gets better and, you know, it's kind of ends. So that's what I'm
kind of thinking here. So, yeah. And I mean, you know, you just kind of find those things. And
I think too, like, you know, once you get some like capital, like I'm sure me, you know, most of the people talking in a space, you know, after, you know, once you get some capital, you know, you, you're, you're less greedy. Like you'll take 30% over a few months. You know what I mean?
cash secured puts on Bitcoin in a crab market for four or five, 6% a month. You'll take things like
that, which when I was like in my young twenties, you know, I was crazy with it. You know, any,
anything other than like a double and a few weeks wasn't good enough. You know, it's a totally
different ball game. It's a totally different ball game, but you, you realize like, I mean,
I, you know, I, I talked to a lot of traders. I mean, there's some people I know one guy,
oh my God, you know, it turned like 200 grand a lot of traders. I mean, there's some people I know one guy, oh my God, you know,
it turned like 200 grand.
It's like three point something million in just a few years.
Incredible.
One of the best traders I've ever met.
And, you know, it's all just kind of trade.
He traded the market he had, like he just followed the momentum area.
Like the only place he got hit there was like,
it was just straight up except for like the beginning beginning of 2025 the tariffs are what got him but everything else he was able to get right
pretty much um you know it's just and i think like it's the psychological aspect of it too like
everybody wants to and myself included too like everybody wanted all coins to do a lot better
than they did do over the last few years i lost money because of
it you know i should have gotten probably you know an eight to ten x return you know what you know
at least what bitcoin did you know since 2022 instead i only got like in my long-term bags
maybe a 3x which is still good but i mean you know it's a big difference i would be way richer right
now if i you know just stuck, just stuck to Bitcoin and traded the
market I had rather than this stupid, you know, altcoin casino going everything going
up 50 or 100x that I wanted.
That's the big thing there.
And I think, you know, once you've been trading, I would say four or five years, you kind of
get that discipline.
You kind of could feel the market a little bit more and you start to realize like you're able to realize like when you're wrong and you're able to kind of get that discipline. You kind of could feel the market a little bit more. And you start to realize, like, you're able to realize, like, when you're wrong.
And you're able to kind of get out of things.
Like, I was listening to someone who was so hardcore, like, bullish on, like, consumer staples.
I'm not going to say who it was.
But they were really hardcore bullish on consumer staples.
And I'm just like, I bought some of that.
And then, like, a week or two later, I'm just like, this is just bleeding against XL.
Like, crazy. Like, why the hell did I buy this shit? Like, this is stupid. And then, like, a week or two later, I'm just like, this is just bleeding against XLL like crazy.
Like, why the hell did I buy this shit?
Like, this is stupid.
And it's converted back to XLL.
Like, you got to know when to get to cut your losses and, like, get out,
you know, and convert to something else.
But at the same time, what was I?
Yeah, I lost my train of thought.
There was something good I was about to say.
Yeah, you got to know when to cut your losses.
But at the same time, obviously, you can't be trading ever you got to give things
some time as well but you know obviously if you're all coin or whatever it's just been bleeding
against bitcoin you know and has no momentum shifts against bitcoin you got to have a plan
to get out you have to have invalidation you know the thing i think a really good trader is they
always have a plan if price does this what am I going to do? If momentum does
this, what am I going to do? For example, like my plan right now, if BM&R makes a lower low against
Bitcoin, if microstrategy makes a lower low against Bitcoin, I'm just going to get the hell
out of those and convert to Bitcoin. Because if you're bleeding, if you just keep bleeding against
Bitcoin, what's the point? Sure, in the future, if there's more momentum against Bitcoin, I can
convert back and try to ride that momentum.
But I'm sure as hell don't want something that's going to just continuously bleed against Bitcoin.
I think the spreads are the important things to look at.
How is your thing doing against the S&P 500?
How is your thing doing against Bitcoin?
Those are the two biggest things.
So that's what's kind of – XLE is showing weakness against – starting to show some weakness against Bitcoin. That's why I'm converting back to Bitcoin.
Same thing with gold, you know, three weeks ago. That's why I converted back to Bitcoin. So there.
Man, that is a great place to wrap up, man. Yo, chill. Evan, thanks for coming on. Same thing
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