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Market Talk- Q3 bullish or bearish!? BTC 120k soon? Fed cuts coming?!
Recorded: July 1, 2025 Duration: 1:19:01Space Recording
Short Summary
In a lively discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored the bullish trends in the market, highlighting the S&P 500's all-time highs and the potential for Bitcoin and altcoins to follow suit. With rising investor interest in equities, the sentiment suggests a promising growth phase for cryptocurrencies.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Okay. so Music
Music
Music
Music
Music
Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh so we let it win so
so Music Music Music
Music
Music
Music
Music
Music
Music
Music
Music
Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music No one left to stand in your own way
Tonight we'll tell us what you'll never be saved
But you're still alive Thank you. Music Welcome to the Demons.
Standing on the razor's hand.
Don't rush down, just keep your head
You can feel it
Welcome to the living
Welcome to the living
Welcome to the living
Welcome to the living
Welcome to the living
Welcome to the living
Welcome to the living Welcome to the welcome back to the stream welcome back to market talk brought to you by
because bitcoin i'm wabi and today we're gonna to go ahead and rant and banter about all things
markets as we always do, guys. I appreciate every single one of you. I'm starting to see some
familiar faces. I want to thank you all so much for tuning into these spaces each and every day.
Whether you're here live or listening to the recording, I'm grateful for each and every
single one of you, even during days when there's not much volatility, right?
BTC has kind of been in a lower timeframe range between 105 to 107.
The equity markets, though, geez, man, another all-time high earlier today by a couple of points.
We did close a little bit lower than we did yesterday.
But nonetheless, during a week where it's a holiday week and not much volume is coming in, right, it's usually the week after July 4th where volume starts to kick in just a little bit.
I think they call it VanaCharm flows or something like that.
And usually every July, there's a bit of a squeeze that happens across all markets that does tend to set quite a big top. We saw that in 2020. 2021 was
a tad bit different, but we saw it in 22, 23, and 24, where typically the week after July 4th,
you see one last push before the late summer lull. People tend to have just a little bit more
time off of the desk desk perhaps one more vacation before
volume starts to trickle back in usually after labor day which is uh the first week of september
but nonetheless guys i i do think uh the setup is still here for summer offense rather than defense
even if at the very least it's just one more up, just one more push up to maybe the local highs that we set back in May, $2,800 ETH, $180 Sol.
But me personally, I think we can trade just a bit higher than that. I think Sol can get up to
like 200 bucks. And I understand when the equity markets have a day where there's not much movement and crypto pulls back a little bit, it's like, all right, that's it.
It's completely over.
But if you zoom out, things like Sol haven't really done much of anything for months with just a few deviations above 160 and a few deviations below 130.
But one thing that you really don't want to
see is BTC going below 100k. A 5-7% pullback on BTC would not be great at all whatsoever.
But we do have some confluence with the S&P 500 actually going into price discovery once again
for the first time since the inauguration. If you take a look at the S&P after Trump's inauguration,
the S&P didn't really do anything for the first three weeks.
I think we just ranged between 20 to 30 points.
We just ping-ponged before Besant and Trump
essentially said the market is sick.
Prepare for a correction.
The market was propped up because of what Biden
had did, propped up a fake economy in the stock market, this and the other. And then we basically
pulled off the COVID fractal, but on a slower time frame, right? The Qs drew down almost 30%.
The S&P drew down almost 25%. And the VIX had a massive spike just as it did back in August.
Now, this market over the last four or five years has been extremely, extremely volatile.
You never really see big crashes back to back in a two-year time span.
But that's basically what we did.
We had a huge crash during the yen carry trade.
We had a huge crash in 22, a huge crash in 2020.
But after these crashes, there's no accumulation.
It's just straight up only.
It's a V reversal.
When the S&P drew down to 3,400, by next summer, NVIDIA was chatting.
HUD started to chad even higher than some cryptos uh you take a look
at hood last year in q1 I think I made a a post about it on my personal profile which I'll probably
pull up later on in the space but hood was trading at 11 last year in February and you take a look at almost any altcoin go ahead pull up ETH pull up Pepe
pull up Sol pull up any any altcoin pull up Casper injective anything that was trending
hood has absolutely demolished all of those names and you know there's something that I've been
saying on these spaces over the last couple of weeks and it And if people are so eager to buy things outside of Bitcoin
and hold them for the long term, the equity market is a fantastic place to do that.
Because in a couple of years, you can be confident that something like a Robinhood
is going to be around or a circle is going to be around, but you just never know what some
of these altcoins. And I understand, right, people don't want to have heavy tax implications.
They don't want to pay short-term capital gains, but the reality of it is this entire
cycle, we've been under quantitative tightening, and even after that ends, these alts can rip
so hard that by the time you reach that 12-month mark where you qualify for long-term cap gains,
by the time you reach that 12-month mark where you qualify for long-term cap gains, those
gains from the top are probably going to draw down by 70% to 80%.
So the equity markets are a massive, massive opportunity for really anybody that's involved
in crypto.
And I would highly suggest for people to diversify, to be frank, but still within the same
suggest for people to diversify, to be frank, but still within the same narrative.
narrative.
And when you take a look at something like Robinhood, I think Circle can follow that
same narrative.
But nonetheless, guys, that's kind of my opening statement.
I think we have unemployment data tomorrow.
And I think off of that, that could set the tone for what we could see over the weekend.
Over this past weekend, we did see some solid volatility across a few altcoins.
And usually a lot of the price action that we've been seeing over the last week or two
is altcoins tend to have a pretty nice weekend if equities close the week pretty well.
But this is a shortened week for the equity markets.
I believe tomorrow is the last full trading day.
Markets closed on Thursday at 1 p.m. EST, and then Friday they're closed due to 4th of July.
So depending on the close tomorrow, I would say after your unemployment, I think that can set the tone for the rest of the week.
But here joined by Chill, here joined by Donnie, here joined by chill here joined by donnie here joined uh by prometheus as well
i'm not sure if spaces are acting up i'm not even sure if you guys can hear me
i'm not even sure because i'm speaking right now and i don't even see the mic moving um i think we
had spaces act up also yesterday i was getting a few DMS saying
like I can't enter the space and they sent me a screenshot that says unable to
fetch space honestly I do think platforms like twitch are gonna be huge
for streaming so maybe one day like there can be a way where spaces could
also stream with twitch or something like that.
We actually do have a Twitch show coming for you guys, by the way, on Thursday.
It's called Ape Time.
Feel free to check that profile out.
It's under our Affiliates tab.
It's going to be hosted every Thursday starting this Thursday at 11.15 a.m. EST, it's going to be a little bit different from our previous content like Market Check and now Market Talk.
I believe Ape Time is going to be basically a gambling show, basically a gambling show.
And you guys can sign up for some of the competitions, goodies, and maybe even giveaways that we'll be doing during that stream.
But guys, before we officially get started, before we officially cook for you guys over
the next 45 minutes to an hour, if you guys can please, please, please show some love
to the space and make some noise.
You guys already know what to do.
Click the spaces tab.
Spaces tab. Once you guys do that, you'll see all of our awesome profile pictures.
Once you guys do that, you'll see all of our awesome profile pictures.
And right above up on the nest, you'll see a little link that says x.com slash I slash spaces.
Go ahead and smash up the like button, smash up the repost button, guys. Help us get more eyes
and ears to the algorithm. It'll help more awareness to the brand, help get more people
in here, all that good stuff. So thank you all so much. Show some love to the space help get more people in here all that good stuff so thank you all so much show some love to the space hit that like button hit that repost button so as always her fashion as
these spaces have gone over the last uh eight months now i'm gonna go ahead and pass it on
over to donnie so donnie brother it's the second trading session where the s p is firmly above
Brother, it's the second trading session where the S&P is firmly above the all-time high where it was trading at in January and February.
BTC a little choppy.
We have unemployment coming tomorrow.
Of course, we are going into a long holiday weekend, so you never really know what you're going to get, man.
And how are you feeling today, man? I know it's only been some lower time frame price action, but
usually with these events like unemployment, CPI, and FOMC, there's a lot of people that like to
discredit it. But I just find that anytime after these events, there's usually some volatility
that follows through. And whichever market is leading, whether it's to the upside or the
downside, that lagging market usually follows with quick succession, man.
So personally, brother, I think we could still have that gap up and atIA make a new all-time high after essentially being
in a downtrend for six months. Ladies and gentlemen, NVIDIA was in a downtrend for almost six months
and had a decline of over 60%. And we're talking one of the highest publicly traded companies here.
Actually, I think it actually drew down like 50%, not 60.
I'm sorry, guys.
I think NVIDIA actually drew down close to 50%.
And after that downtrend, it essentially V-reversed back to new all-time highs.
And guys, once again, this recovery that we had in the equity market is the quickest
recovery that we've had where the S&P is down and the QQQ is
down over 20% and is back to all-time highs. It is the fastest recovery ever. You have high-cap
stocks that bled down 20%, 30% plus back to the highs. And I just have a very difficult time not seeing bitcoin at the very least gap up to a new high and i mean that's that
that's basically um what i'm seeing here donnie man thanks for coming on it's gonna be uh a great
show and thank you for that plug by the way thank you for that plug uh last week it's uh been doing
quite well but you know there's some volatility there's but there's some volatility. There's some volatility, that's for sure, bro.
But welcome, man.
Hey, what's up, bro?
Thanks for having me back on.
Yeah, pretty much agree with everything that you said,
other than I think your targets are too low.
If we do go to retest the high, like you're saying,
in my view, there's no way you don't burst above the high
just because of how the chart is laid out and kind of the sentiment around these local pullbacks in this
range that we're forming, right? So I think there's going to be a big emotional gap once you
do have the squeeze and people realize, damn, that World War III wick was actually the low.
So if we do go and take out the highs, like you're saying, I think we're headed to 120k plus
pretty quickly. And if we do get the weekly close above highs, like you're saying, I think we're headed to 120 K plus pretty quickly.
And if we do get the weekly close above 120 K,
whenever that rally does come,
I think that's a wrap.
And we've left this,
this range that we've been in since,
you know,
the 109 K high all the way to the 74 K low.
It's a bit of a,
you know,
technical distributive looking range.
If you close above 120 with a weekly close,
I think that's good enough for it to be a range break.
And then we trend higher towards 130, 140.
So yeah, if you're banking on revisiting those highs,
I think you're by default banking on a much higher high
in the making.
So yeah, the chart's looking really good.
I shared in the Nest a post that I just made, which is basically what I posted before the drop, before the World War III FUD, kind of outlining that if you do get the deviation of the low there, people are going to be screaming that it's over.
sub 90 on BTC but really that's just a fear climax and we know historically with every other sort of
war scary event like that it does tend to mark a bottom and just contextually this one made a lot
of sense and yeah it played out exactly like that I even drew the demand zone that would leave behind
near the range low before it even happened I just I just know how the price will work when you do
pull a deviation from that bottom and we actually front ran that demand zone. Again, we've been front running these
demand zones for a reason. There's some deeper alpha behind that. I won't go into it on this
space, but I'm starting to notice a nice little trend with these front running demand zones,
these very obvious rectangles that everyone's drawing on the chart.
But yeah, I think this pullback was pretty much expected, just like how I drew before it happened.
It's normal. You're forming a range. Again, you're leaving untapped highs,
bull flagging, whatever you want to call it. And we just finished quarter two. We're going into
quarter three, a fresh new month. Expect horrible price action in terms of just non-volatile, choppy, annoying, not really
doing anything until you have the real move, which I think is brewing here.
And it can be whatever catalyst.
It can be the job numbers, the unemployment numbers, whatever.
It could be Jerome Powell being dovish.
These catalysts are always
lurking in the background when the chart is shaping up in a particular way. And this chart
is shaping up for a breakout. So expect some form of bullish news, right? It could be the one big
beautiful bill. It could be anything. So we don't know the exact date, but we're narrowing it down
pretty closely. I think it's more skewed towards the first two weeks of July for the breakout,
but it could be as late as the start of August, for example.
Who knows?
If it follows that 2024 fractal to the T,
it'll probably be around August 1st,
but I just have a feeling it's sooner rather than later
because of how many important key dates are in July specifically.
So yeah, I'm thinking just be a little bit more patient here
because this chart is shaping up just way, way, way too cleanly to ignore.
It's very similar to the 74k low in the sense that a lot of people
just could not see you rallying from that level
and going way higher than they expected.
It's very similar contextually and sentiment-wise.
I really like it.
And obviously there is catalysts,
just like there was back then that people were fading
because of some imminent doom that they could see
but no one else could see.
It's very similar right now.
So yeah, I'm very excited.
And I think this pullback that you're getting here
is probably the best time to start scaling in.
Me personally, I wouldn't wait longer
when you have so much evidence
that the macro picture is literally cemented in stone.
I think you're just being, you know,
you're just tossing up over a few million market cap
if you're waiting for picot bottom entries on coins that you like
and things like that.
And then if you're waiting for a breakout,
me personally, I have anxiety doing that
because in my sleep in New Zealand is typically when the market opens.
And you can get priced out of these moves very quickly. We saw even from the bounce when we took out the 100.7K liquidity and we bounced to 110K.
Even just there, like coins that I was looking at, they were like doubling some of them,
3Xing off the lows, some coins that I was looking to get into.
It happens overnight.
Essentially, you can get priced and if you miss a double from the bottom, you've essentially halved your potential gains
to the upside.
So I think it's better to have a nice forward-looking series of data that you can basically see
that this market's going higher and just take the shots while they're cheap.
Way better entering low than chasing the breakout, in my opinion.
But yeah, everything is looking good.
And even on-chain, Wabi's starting to get spicy.
Yeah, I can see that, bro.
I can definitely see that, bro.
If you hit this winner, bro, my goodness, bro.
100x Donny is back.
But man, look at this man i was uh looking at some charts as i was playing the music
eth btc actually looks bottomed while soul btc now i don't give a shit if i was late to soul btc
being in a downtrend because the fact of the matter is a lot of us don't even buy Sol.
We just buy the on-chain shitters.
Sol BTC looks like ETH BTC before the massive breakdown that it had in Q1.
And, you know, I'm looking at IWM and IWM just made fresh local highs earlier today relative to its bottom, right?
And it's close to flipping green year to date.
I think IWM has to rally to like 220.
It finished the day at 217.
And once that turns green year to date, I mean, Donnie,
take a look at what happened once the QQQ and the S&P flipped green year to date.
We basically gapped up by like 5%.
So if IWM gaps up 5% and goes to like 225 or something like that,
ETH BTC, and I kid you not, ETH BTC could rally like 20%.
And that's why, like, yeah, I do think BTC is going to go to like 115, 116,
and it's not that high.
But for alts, I think we can have a huge gamma squeeze
because you look at things like ARK Invest,
you look at things like even things like Roblox,
there is a micro bull run happening in low caps,
and everyone just wants to point to Robinhood.
And it's like, I get it.
You're bullish on hood, but it's already up almost 10x in the last 16 months.
That was the time period.
I remember I put a post.
And I'm going to go ahead and put it up on the nest for you guys.
This was incredible looking back on it man I'll put it up on the nest just give me a moment I put it
up on the nest for you guys I basically said there's a there's a clear
discrepancy between Robin Hood and coin. And the thesis was, where do people buy their first stock?
It's Robinhood.
And what do people do after they make their first chunk of change in stocks?
They say, hey, how can I continue to flip this money?
Let me go ahead and check what other assets Robinhood has.
Oh, crypto?
Okay.
And Hood was trading at like 10 bucks,
12 bucks. And Coin was still trading at a massive premium compared to Hood. And now Hood is up like
700%, 800% since that post. And once people, like, you know how it is donnie once people catch a narrative everyone's
hopping on the name it's like all right the juice is probably relaxed for a bit and there's probably
something else that's brewing that nobody's paying attention to and that is low caps it's low caps
it's low cap indices it's arc invest it's iwm and if we see the big beautiful bill that's when is that
going live donnie in a few days or something like that yeah it's very then yeah so so the setup is
there the setup is clearly there and now you have like not to get political but politics and price
action do tend to intertwine we saw that happening leading up to the election. It's like, oh, don't talk about politics. But it's like, dude, when the favor goes towards Trump, markets
were rallying like crazy. After the election, markets basically went up only for weeks on end.
It was insane. It looked like 1997 during that first big blow off. And we had the exact same
crash as we did in 97. now we have the big beautiful bill
people that are against the big beautiful bill all those senators and people in congress are
all losing their minds similar to how when people are losing their minds when trump was eating the
polls and we all know what happens once the big beautiful bill is passed trump is going to pump
the crap out of this market forcefully
forcefully whether the Fed wants to bend the knee or not so I mean the setup is there for
a gamma squeeze in my opinion not only for low caps but for all coins um I just have a hard time
thinking with things like soul if they're gonna go to like 300 bucks or above when this gamma
squeeze um happens i'm just more so looking at all right what are previous price points for ethan
soul that we've seen that would be indicative of on-chain going crazy and that would be four
thousand dollar east 220 230 soul and i think all that can happen in like two weeks a week and a half and we've seen
how vicious these rallies in crypto um can be so what do you think donny yeah i agree with that bro
um i would say the key levels to mark would be the russell getting above 2.3k exactly i think it
zips straight to a new high if you get above that uh which it's not far off right now right there's a little supply block in there which
is essentially the origin of the move that sent us to the capitulatory low
it's basically like crossing the 5800 level on uh the smp to where we crossed that and everyone
flipped bullish you remember that there was like a 200 day moving average or something
somewhere around there it's, I remember that.
It's the same level where everyone's going to be like,
oh, shit, like low-cap stocks, damn, they're starting to pump.
And then they'll pile in on top and ride the trend.
So that.
And then ETH, I don't think it needs to go to 4K
for things to start rallying extremely hard.
I think if you just clear the recent high, which is like 2850,
you're going to start getting aggressive moves across the board.
But if you get above 3.4K,
that's going to be where things start to really zip.
And that should get ETH BTC above the weekly market structure at 0.03.
And subsequently to cause all of this,
BTC should be above the all-time high.
So you've got those and Bitcoin dominance should be rolling below 61.8%, which if you
have all four of those triggers, I just don't see how things don't 5, 10, 15x rapidly.
Like you're saying, it'll happen quick when the the move does begin, within a week or two weeks,
you're completely priced out of premium entries.
And they're telling us to touch grass and enjoy the summer, Donnie.
Nah, bro.
I'm sleeping with one eye open, bro.
I tell you that.
With alerts open and everything, man.
Let's get some thoughts from uh from mr spread spread
what's going on man welcome to the show feel free to give some of your thoughts on the market man
and uh any commentary that you have to give in relation to the discussion bro but welcome back
man it's been uh i think it's been um a couple of days since we last had you on the show i think you were on on uh last wednesday or something like that
so hi wabi hey guys well uh first of all i'm very happy to see that more people are picking up on
iwm um i think it was and last two weeks ago something like that when i was watching iwm
and i even made the post to that big, beautiful,
not bill, but inverse head and shoulders.
And if people are not paying attention to that,
I think they really should.
What can I say?
Although the markets have been sideways mostly
and even down on the altcoins market,
it has been an amazing opportunity to trade the dollar
since 104 and now is what
under 97 imagine the amount of opportunities that we had especially the against the swiss franc
even yesterday lost around the 1.5 against it so there are money there are money to be made even
when the crypto market is not so so giving let's just say like that but all in all i agree with what you guys said i like how
the markets are looking liquidity is still going up for the crypto space all while dxy so the dollar
index is still dropping and i don't think that the drop has ended here we might start i'm not
going to say a secular bear market for for the, but this looks like pretty, pretty bleak for the dollar index, especially with how much more downside Trump is going to push on this with his new big spending bill.
So yeah, I don't know how someone can be bearish actually
when all the arguments that you and Donnie gave
with the S&P at all-time high,
with the NASDAQ at all-time high,
with the DXY being so bearish.
I think it lost like what,
more than 15% in the last year or so,
maybe even more, maybe 20%.
And it's not going to stop.
I don't know if you guys remember
and I don't know if I still have it.
Let me double check. I don't know if I still have it. Let me double check.
I don't know if I still have it pinned.
But I made the post.
Yeah, look at the post from March, the one that I repinned right now,
in which I was explaining in details, not only fundamental,
but also from a technical perspective,
why Trump's strategy to weaken the dollar is going to actually help out
in several ways the
risk assets as for each btc i still think we need to not we need to but most likely we will still
suffer for some time meaning next quarter before we see definitive bottoming signs until then i
still see some chop i'm not as bullish on that. However, when the big wave,
which is Bitcoin, is going to lift all boats,
we know all what happens.
I think that still a lot of people
have two problems from the past cycles.
One is PTSD.
And at every rally,
they started selling the fuck out of it.
And the second one,
they still think that this is the same type of
market like like last cycle in which they think that all market all altcoins should grow or will
grow in the same time and they didn't understand that it was a rotation market it's still a rotation
market or as you said a coin pickers market and i still think it's going to be the same
with bitcoin leading and pockets of strength ai d5 means obviously decide who knows
what's going to be the next narrative but i don't think that we're going to see growth across the
board i don't think it's even possible going forward given the dilution that we have like
what like millions of coins now compared to 11 000 like we had in the last cycle but all in all
i thrive in this kind of markets i like
this kind of markets which have not been on easy mode like they were in the last cycle so i like
whatever is happening right now i like the the type of price action we have i like when markets
are boring i like when they are not easy and they get people frustrated because this is where I have my edge. So in conclusion, DXY is going lower.
Main index is at all-time highs.
IWM breaking out after 200 and something days.
So I would really agree with Donnie.
So if you guys are on the other side of the world
and you're not trading the European session or the New York session,
you should really sleep with one eye open
because things can change very, very fast, regardless if fed is going to cut but by the way they're not
going to cut in july regardless of how much pressure trump is going to put on on powell
he's not going to cut in july and by the way the short-term bonds are looking the yields are
looking i'm not sure that they're going to cut in september either but let's see
what are the odds that they cut or don't cut in September
I don't know September is very far I don't do this kind of predictions I just
watched the three-month bond yields overlap to the federal fund rates and
for now there is no I mean I don't know what are the odds but based on those the
other tools that they have on the Federal Reserve website but right now I would would say that there are under 5% chances that they cut in September.
By the way, the things are looking.
But in July, there is no chance to cut right now.
Unless my tool is giving false signals, which it didn't in the last one year and a half.
Spread, so when you say you're know you're not expecting uh every single all
to go back to new all-time highs and i certainly agree with that um are you saying that you know
you can see things like i hate saying you know when i talk man i need to do a better job at that
i really really do um i think i need to have a, you know, counter like talking and then saying, you know, you know, it really, it really bothers me. But it is what it is. But anyways, excuse me,
spread. Do you think things like a bunk or a whiff, right? Some of these names that have been
around for some time, do you think those will stand a chance because i know what you're saying right as far as dilution we're talking about all the shitters that we've seen on pump fun that go from
zero to 20 mil or 30 mil that's usually the high and then they just go straight back to zero and
nobody um hears about them ever again do you think coins like that are going to do well well if there
are some coins that are going to do well most likely, if there are some coins that are going to do well,
most likely are going to be the ex-leaders
from the market. So I don't expect
the broader market,
like I said, or the ones which...
I mean,
it's very hard for the other ones
which got a
push last year
to still make a comeback.
So that's why I said i still think it's a coin
pickers market but if so that's good and i don't see any reasons for it to not perform well given
the traction that it has now also on wall street and with the new staking etfs and the other etfs
that most likely they're going to get approved by the current sec admins um i don't see how the main
meme coins with the biggest volumes and liquidity from
that chain will not perform all so well so i would also focus on them i know it's the gains that or
the probable gains that will come are not so attractive as some of these like micro caps
under 15 million but in in the current market context where we do not have like broader market
i would rather have like a 2x 3x booked and move those profits to bitcoin until the next rotations
rather than look for some like big hits like that if i look for some big hits it's like going to be
some uh on on um on very very small amounts they just call it them like that but when it comes to
proper sizing i'm just gonna look at bonk and whiff and these kind of locations yeah man um
looking back at the start of the cycle in 23 you look at things like caspa and it's like dang dude
back in q4 of 23 it's like you know this
thing is going to be around for the majority of the cycle but then it had that binance purplest
thing i'm pretty sure it was either bybit or binance i'm not sure which one and then the price
action was just completely different it made one more marginal high just shortly above that November 23 high in February of 24, and then it just went down only.
Can I say something?
It's actually been down only.
Can I say something about Kuspa here?
It's crazy, bro.
Go ahead, go ahead.
Yeah, so listen, I like the tech behind it.
Very weird for me to say that, but I like the tech behind it, or I like the fact how some Bitcoin moxies were like really against it.
It meant that, you know, there's something there when it comes to technology, if they paid so much attention to it.
But although I don't like this kind of talk, you know, manipulation, bullshits like that, I think that brings zero value to anybody's framework or potential actionable plans.
were potential actionable plans.
But in my community, I said to my guys,
listen, under 0.2,
I mean, as long as that resistance holds,
like 0.18 or between 0.18 and 0.2,
there was something like super synthetic.
That was not the natural price action.
I don't even remember for how many months
or even like multiple quarters although
other altcoins with less fundamentals and less traction were really rallying and printing all
time highs after all time highs pushed by bitcoin there was something like it was a huge huge sell
pressure that really kept cusp under 0.2 i don't know, but it didn't look natural. I said to my guys, I said, listen,
I like the project. I like the community. I even went down a bit of rabbit hole on the tech
and some of the memes there. Even in the Romanian Casper community, et cetera, I met with the guys.
But I also told them in front, we met for some events. I said, guys, I don't know what's wrong,
but I cannot put my finger on the price action.
So if there was like an X factor that I couldn't locate
and I couldn't translate into a framework, actionable one,
because something was really off for me,
and maybe it's a gut feeling that I also developed
for the last 15 years of trading
and looking at
thousands and thousands of charts I would just I was like you know what if it's going to rally
without me let just be it but because I have that kind of x factor there and I couldn't
couldn't exactly like I said put my my finger on it I just wanted to stay away and I'm going
to stay away as long as as long as it's going to stay under 0.2.
Yeah, man.
Man, we were talking about Caspa for months from like July of 2023 all the way through
January of 24.
And yeah, it did start to act like a different asset, really.
A lot of these alts, man, that were trending back then, like TIA, Caspa, even Injective,
they all peaked in early Q1 of 24, Q4 of 23, and have just been in these vicious bear markets.
And I'm wondering, like, after this next leg next leg up, should we have the opportunity to trade
to fresh highs and then Bitcoin has one more steep correction, what's going to happen to all
these other alts? Because the more Bitcoin trades higher, some of these alts have been losing their
trends, quite honestly. And Tommy has touched touched upon that but there's also the factor of
bitcoin dominance right which i know cowan has said this before and i'm certainly in agreement
with it um the end of quantitative tightening should mark like the pico pico pico top of btc
dominance um kind of like how the end of qe marked the top for all the on-chain froth that was
going on in Q1 of 24 with Luna and all that stuff.
And I think that's what really started the uptrend on Bitcoin dominance right after QE
stopped in March of 22.
So, you know, just as bad things can be ignited, so can good things, right?
We had Besant and trump come out in
february telling everyone at the market was going to get cream pied and now we have them saying the
complete opposite so with that being said it's got some thoughts from chill chill what's going on man
welcome back to the show how are you feeling appreciate you having me back again man um
not just enjoying the conversation. I think
there's a lot of just bearishness. There's a lot of negativity. There's a lot of anger in the
market. And there's a lot of impatience as well. And it's classic of this market to test everyone to their limit, right?
So it doesn't surprise me at all.
I mean, we've been saying this for weeks on these spaces that, you know, nothing has changed in regards to how we view the market. Different ways and different data points that basically tell us the same thing that we have more upside than many expect and probably even sooner than many expect as well.
So right now, man, I mean, I'm just focused on my positioning.
On-chain is hot right now. So because nothing has changed on the macro side, I have been focusing more on on-chain trading. I'm seeing memes catch a lot of, some memes catch a lot, catch a bid.
playing on chain a little bit, but ultimately just waiting, right?
Like just staying patient, continuing to hold the things that I believe in
and continuing to wait for this market to, you know, finally, finally wake up.
And, you know, in the meantime, I'm just going to kind of trade the volume that I see on chain.
And I think I've said it last week on these spaces and, and I'll say it again.
But, you know, Solana on chain is kind of where you want to be if you're an active trader. So,
you know, if you're, if you're kind of like daily in the trenches, or if you're like looking to kind
of spot new opportunities outside of just kind of a long-term position, you know, that's the place to trade. And it's been a few days ago, actually, I believe
it was exactly a week ago, maybe even a little over, I put out a tweet that said, I'm looking
for a pullback on Bitcoin. That was last week. We talked about the high timeframe, how Bitcoin looks like
it's in a bull flag, but it's at the top of the flag. And until it breaks out, I'm erring on the
side of a pullback. And here we are, just basically pulling back within the larger structure.
And again, nothing has changed. We're still expecting the same upside. It's just a matter of when, not if. And I believe
we've seen the extent of the pullback that we'll see. And again, this is where if you're an active
trader, there's a lot of opportunities out there when markets kind of kind of pivot and they come out of a out of a downtrend.
You know, there's a lot, although Bitcoin has been kind of pushing up a lot of alts, a lot of on-chain tickers have dipped, providing a ton of opportunity for many to kind of get positioned in quality projects that they like.
But at the same time, you know, on-chain is just kind of this risk on paradise, if you will,
or not even paradise. I'll call it a risk on arena because it's very PVP in that sense.
But there's still volume, there's still opportunities. And I do too.
Not hate them.
I believe that's a bit strong.
But I much rather trade and hold quality projects.
But at the end of the day, we trade what markets give us.
So if the volume is there and there's a system that you can put around it to kind of catch these opportunities. That's exactly what I'm going to do.
And on my stream, I kind of talked about this setup for some of these on-chain plays where they kind of shoot to a high on a fresh launch.
And then they just drop like 80 90 percent and once you bid those dips typically at
the 0.786 you know you get to see some upside and some easy x's on chain that's basically uh what
i've been doing more or less um and was able to catch some good opportunities but yeah that's
that's really all i'm that's really my thoughts outside of just the conversation you guys have been having so far.
And I've really enjoyed kind of listening to Donnie and Mr. Spread just kind of break down their thoughts.
But just translating it for what I do in markets. Nothing has changed. We continue to wait.
We continue to hold quality. And, you know, while we wait, maybe we have a little bit of fun. Maybe, you know, we we don't put our whole portfolio out there, but, you know, maybe we take some soul and and we have some fun on chain.
So that's really what I've been doing. Looking forward to, you know, what the rest of July and the rest of this year brings.
But, you know, I'm bullish beyond belief. And, you know, I think everybody by now knows the sector that I believe in most.
But I just can't wait to see what's on the other side of all of this patience that we have.
I think Ray is going to be a massive runner, man.
If liquidity comes back.
Dude, you see that pump?
Holy moly.
Yeah, it's because of that huge upgrade that they're doing.
Like Ray is going to be able to fully trade for you, pull up charts and graphs.
It's a fucking terminal, dude.
Like, this thing is basically open AI meets DeepSeek and all that stuff.
Like, it's a real product, and devs actually use the damn thing.
And I'm pretty sure that small presale they did, all those people got out at like 20, 25 mil during that dump where it retraced back to 10.
But there are some big things that are probably going to happen on ETH that KIDA set the tone for.
KIDA went to one bill plus FDV.
And whenever you have something that reaches escape velocity on a chain that is so bullish for that chain moving
forward look at what whiff did ladies and gentlemen when whiff crossed the bill solana went crazy for
the majority of 2024 when pepe hit one bill back in q2 of 2023 that set up that on-chain frenzy that we had in 2023 in
the summertime so I mean what is there more what is there more to say anytime
you have a token reaching escape velocity on chain it's just bullish for
the entire space and you know for those that don't trade memes you guys trade fundamental tokens
and all that stuff like as long as there's some catalyst then the trade is still there i think
kita still isn't even on mainnet yet so you're not even you're not even able to trade shit coins so
um i also think it's one of the only all coins outside of hyperliquid this cycle i mean pepe i
think was mentioned once or twice.
But it's one of the only altcoins that have actually appeared on mainstream media
where you have, like, hedge fund managers that handle massive AUNs,
talk about the product.
But that being said, let's get some thoughts from Prometheus.
Prometheus, what's up, man? I saw your request.
I'm sure you have some stuff to say about the market, man.
Welcome to the show.
Yeah, brother.
Appreciate you having me up.
I mean, a lot of good stuff touched on so far.
I, from a short-term perspective, I'll kind of talk on, like, my positioning and my perspective on, you know, where I'm at, at least in the short-term, you know, low to mid-time frames.
Let me ask you a question, man.
Do you like pickles?
It depends.
Like, I don't like those shitty generic brand ones.
Like, homemade ones are super gas.
Okay.
All right.
Because I got a burger from Denny's, and, like, I like my burger plain, right?
And when I went to go pick it up, the dude was smoking a joint. Like, there's nobody in that Denny's, and that Denny's and like I like my British plane right and when I went to go pick it up the dude was smoking a joint
like there's nobody in that Denny's and then
Denny's is usually packed and
he was there smoking a joint he's like
hey man pick up and I'm like
yo is this guy about to like jump me or
something like that he's like screaming
he's like hey man pick up
and I'm like yo I'm not here to do a drug
deal I'm just here to pick up some fruit
it's like oh shit he actually works with the Denny's
and the Denny's is like dead empty.
It looks like a fucking horror movie.
And I'm like, all right, I'm in a 1980s Denny's now it seems.
But...
Well, you have the most random shit you're saving.
I love you for us.
Holy shit.
I bet my house that Prometheus didn't expect this yeah then i opened up the birth shit you're saying man i love you for us holy shit yeah i bet i bet
i bet my house that prometheus didn't expect this in a fucking million years to be asked if he likes
pickles the first question of this place dude dude because i open up the i open up the hamburger and
then there's like a pickle and i'm like dude this thing smells horrible why do why why why is pickles a thing
on hamburgers dude i don't understand you don't like vinegar it's a uh palate cleanser that's why
they put it on there it helps to break up all that super heavy meaty salty food ah i see i see
yeah continue man continue no you're good uh yeah i mean hell of a question by wabi there
no i love uh wabi's questions honestly it keeps the space light and fresh and keeps everybody on their toes. It's good stuff. But I mean, I'm just out here, you know, at the chipping green and really just kind of being patient with the market. You know, today is a great day from a market perspective on really how important liquidity is for
for crypto in our asset class you know if you look at historically the cycle at least the cycle
what happens on more in liquid weeks and weekends you typically have you know crypto
have some form of pullback we can go back to thanksgiving the
past two years fourth of july last year just time in and time out the market is just kind of telling
us that truthfully we need that that big beautiful bill um you know no matter how much i i hate to
say that um i think they've kind of realized that this train that we're on is they can't stop it. And so if you can't stop it, you might as well jump on and enjoy the ride. And I know people are super bullish on that. They're increasing deficit by like, well, like five trail or something like that, which is pretty impressive. And ultimately risk on assets are going to thrive.
which is pretty impressive and ultimately risk on assets are going to thrive
but that is not even close to being in effect yet and i also believe that's over a 10 year
time horizon as well it will benefit the market but from just a generic altcoin perspective you
look at days like today man and bitcoin's at what 105 off the top of my head um and you look at altcoins and altcoins
are like 20 lower than where they were at when bitcoin was at 102 on that last flush down so
the whole idea and i put stuff on my timeline in regards to altcoins and kind of the positioning
in which i'm viewing the market and what's the best way to look at things,
I really, really, really believe.
Just wait for confirmation on Bitcoin.
That's all you have to do.
Like, let the market just give you the green light.
If you look at the death range of last year for eight months,
you know, people time in and time out when we press up into that upper descending trend line on that range,
press up into that upper descending trend line on that range you know people would just be so eager
to jump in uh jump in altcoins and they'd be so eager to chase beta and you know i get the whole
idea like you got to worry about you know it's nice to buy at the lows because the you know if
you miss out um like donnie was saying if you miss out on like
what is it like 50 you miss out on you know half the potential returns you know something pretty
uh pretty staggering but at the same time when those easy risk on conditions come you know
there's going to be new narratives there's gonna be fresh hot like tickers that are gonna be super
easy to play and i'm like just let the
market give you the green light everybody i don't know what the rush is to like jump into beta right
now especially when we're seeing the market behave like it is with crypto i mean looking it's not
looking good guys if you like want to be real you know equities are at new all-time highs you have
a lot of names outside of the mag seven chatting
and crypto can't even get, you know, like a green day to save its life. Like that's not,
it's not strong. It's not good. Um, I get like, there will be a time and a place for,
you know, the markets again to really go risk on. But in the meantime, you know, I tell everybody
like short alts long
majors uh like you're bullish long majors if you're bearish uh short alts and if you want to
pick up some crypto beta in the meantime i mean you might as well pick up some stuff in equity
land dude like like you'd mentioned at the beginning of space robin hood hit like 97
at uh uh post market yesterday that's insane man That's insane, man. That's insane. Robinhood,
I remember at the lows, is that like, what, like nine bucks, 11 bucks, something like that. Crazy.
Uh, and these equity, you know, these equity beta plays are behaving like the shit coins we want,
like how we want shit coins to behave you know it's um it's kind
of fascinating and eventually i do think that the bid is going to be less driven around memes it's
going to be less driven around um you know gambling and hype and yada yada yada and eventually just
because the capitalistic nature of the crypto asset class, people will believe in tech again.
I've talked about how that's something I believe is going to happen more centered around 2030-ish from an adoption perspective.
But in the meantime, just take what the market gives you.
And the market is not giving you a whole lot in crypto.
I mean, let's be real.
Yeah, so I'm just like in Wayne C mode and mode and being patient man but that's all i got for you
everybody else touched on a lot of good stuff
donnie save us brother i was just gonna say um in the 2024 range that we had, which basically this looks like a repeat to me, is you had stocks and gold actually breaking out of their range way sooner than BTC and the rest
of the market. But it was the same sort of buildup, right? So if you think there's continuation on
equities, it's definitely imminent for BTC. The setup's pretty clear. And also, you don't want to
be buying the top of this range for sure, right?
You don't want to be chasing, which is what I'm saying is you want to be buying when there's wicks
to the downside. So what do you think is going to happen, for example, if you do get the breakout,
where are coins going to be when you're entering at that point? Which is the same logic that you
use to say people shouldn't be rushing to buy altcoins at the top of this range. Well, what
about at 114k should they be buying there like
it's the same thing but even more exaggerated to the upside which you know in my opinion that's
counterintuitive i completely disagree and you're going to destroy your capital base along the way
if you take for instance the eight month range that we had last year people were early to you
know that whole trade even if you bought the bottom of the range at the first half of that eight of the first half of the eight month range, if you bought even the lows, you know,
in the beginning of that, you still destroyed your capital base and greatly reduced. I mean,
sure you can get in early, but you're destroying your capital base and you might not be,
you know, you might be capturing more potential upside, but the long run you at least have capital ready
to be deployed and you have more capital ready to be deployed so why rush into it like it's like
sure you could buy the range lows now but again if we repeat last year and we go into a range for
four more months you know altcoins are going to go down another 60 percent let's not kid ourselves
like so you think a four-month range with the current setup that we're forming
i'm not saying that you've used last year as an example you use the eight-month range last year
as an example so that's what i'm saying and i'm saying right now if you also if you were to
be cognizant of the fact that bitcoin at 102k that last flush altcoins are lower than where they were at with bitcoin at 105 as of today than bitcoin was
at 102 so just like if you look at the total three chart in relation to it it's just going to bleed
and bleed and bleed and bleed until bitcoin breaks out so yeah buying the breakout at like 111 112 is
not a bad idea like whatsoever yeah i think i think the difference there is when you buy the bottom
right and you get
the bounce you can quickly invalidate your trade if you see it's rolling and you'll actually be in
profit and not at a loss so no one's advocating to buy and hold if you see a rejection at the
range highs you can just sell it and you'll be in a profit and you redistribute at the lows again
but anyways that's different trading uh you know styles or whatever but also this range is just
like a lower time frame range compared to the
2024 one. It's not going to be
four or eight months long. It's literally a weekly chart
versus a daily chart if it plays out
similarly. And with altcoins
the whole point of the space at the start was
that we were discussing it's kind of
a coin picker's market.
So you're not saying like the whole altcoin base.
And there's some coins that are actually higher than that
$102k low. It just depends like where you're looking and stuff the whole old coin base. And there's some coins that are actually higher than that $102k low.
It just depends like where you're looking and stuff.
But again, it's just semantics on how you like to trade.
I just personally think buying a lot of this is, you just cover your position.
Like anything that you would have bought at that $98k low, you'll still be in profit right now.
And you can cut the position if you think it's going to roll.
Yeah, it's just like you said.
I mean, it's just different different styles kind of how you want to
approach it and that's a beautiful thing there's you know a few different ways you could can
approach this setup and the one thing i will agree with you on is the speed at which the market is
kind of constructing price it's much much quicker now and that's very typical, you know, acceleration towards the tail end of cycles.
No matter, you know, if it's in equities or crypto, we are getting that acceleration in markets.
And yeah, I mean, I'm very, very excited for what the rest of this year has to hold.
And it is unfortunate that equities are, you know, grinding higher and crypto is doing what it's doing.
But, I mean, 2023 is exactly the same.
2024 is exactly the same.
Crypto went sideways and equities grinded up higher.
And then Q4 gets nutty.
So, yeah, I mean, just different styles on how you want to approach, like, your trading from a trading perspective.
But ultimately speaking, we're both in the same camp you know macros lining up in the long term
from a regulatory perspective from a liquidity perspective from a credit perspective things
look really really good and I'm really excited for people actually leaving tech again I think
that's something that's going to be really underestimated from the current holder base.
Prometheus, you want to know something, man?
One thing that I want to say on this space, hardly anyone is giving Will his flowers.
He was the only person that was screaming to buy Palantir in the single digits,
in the single digits buying carvana at like eight bucks will would do his uh streaming on the discord
buying Carvana at like $8.
talking about carvana carvana is gonna absolutely rip face man and the thing is up like almost 100x
in two years my goodness and now everyone wants to talk about carvana everyone wants to talk about Carvana. Everyone wants to talk about Palantir and Hood. I feel like, dude, with equities melting up, I'm confident that's going to go over the crypto markets, man. one to two week lag for whatever reason usually a couple of week lag and that catch-up trade
happens within a snap of a finger very quickly extremely quickly even and as far as alts i i
think that's due to just bitcoin dominance just break breaking out to like 67 percent
and there's a reality where dominance goes all the way to 75 percent
70 75 that would be brutal man but bro tommy's calling for 80
which i mean that's i mean don't save me donnie save me i just thought it tommy tommy's calling 80k bitcoin 80 percent
at 80 bitcoin dominance oh geez 80 on btcd i don't know about that man
i think if you're banking on a breakout for btc bitcoin dominance gonna roll
Man, I certainly hope that doesn't happen.
80% Bitcoin dominance.
Jeez, that...
What does that mean for the price of Sol?
70 bucks?
Yeah, that's... To me, i don't know maybe yeah no comment
yeah just because like if you're banking on crypto going higher it just that makes no sense
to me whatsoever like logically you that that would because everything will get dragged up
with btc therefore btc would have to just crazy outperform to pull
adk uh 80 dominance while old coins are also trickling up i don't know
maybe a move from bitcoin like what gold did earlier this year where gold is just surging five
percent every other day i would be for the whole crypto space like ETH would rally like crazy if that happened
yeah
and that's facts man
is there anything else that you guys want to mention
before I wrap up here
by the way guys
yeah
well guys I want to thank you all so much
I want to thank the speakers
I want to thank Prometheus, Donnie I also want to thank Chill for coming on up here and Mr. Spread for talking shop with me on the show. But ladies and gentlemen, if you've enjoyed the stream over the last hour and a half and you thinking to yourself, man, how can I keep up with this with these guys? I really like with what they were cooking on the markets.
with what they were cooking on the markets.
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Thank you, thank you, thank you. so so Music I'm going to go to the next one. Thank you. Music so The
