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Market Talk- STOCK CRASHING but crypto pumping!? BTC de coupling!?
Recorded: April 21, 2025 Duration: 1:15:21Space Recording
Short Summary
In a lively discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored the resilience of Bitcoin amidst equity market weakness, the impressive growth of Farcoin and Seoul, and the emerging trends in the crypto landscape. With bullish sentiments surrounding Solana and innovative products like Hyperliquid, the conversation highlighted the potential for significant market movements in the coming months.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. you I'm so excited.
I'm so excited.
I'm so excited.
I'm so excited. Oh
I'm trying
I'm going to try I'm going to try I'm going to try
I'm going to try
I'm going to try
I'm going to try
I'm going to try
I'm going to try
I'm going to try
I'm going to try
I'm going to try I'm going to go. I'm going to go. I'm going to go. I'm going to go. I'm going to go.
I'm going to go.
I'm going to go.
I'm going to go.
I'm going to go.
I'm going to go.
I'm going to go.
I'm going to go.
I'm going to go.
I'm going to go.
I'm going to go.
I'm going to go.
I'm going to go.
I'm going to go.
I'm going to go.
I'm going to go.
I'm going to go.
I'm going to go.
I'm going to go.
I'm going to go.
I'm going to go. I'm going to go. I'm going to go. I'm going to go. I'm going to go. Okay. Oh I'm going to go to the next one. All right. what's going on guys welcome back to market talk welcome back guys welcome welcome
man what a fantastic and lovely easter weekend celebrating our lord and savior jesus
christ shout out to him without him i wouldn't be here with you guys uh to talk about markets each
uh each weekday with y'all it's uh truly been an honor and we've had um a lot of great shows over
the last few years honestly and uh always appreciative of you guys that have been tuning in since the very beginning. And if you've recently become an active listener
over the last couple of weeks and months, I want to give you all a huge shout out of
appreciation. Thank you all so much. Thank you to Donnie, who's been hosting these spaces
with me over the last couple of months. And shout out to Chill. He's been here with me on these spaces,
I think, since late summer of 2023.
It's been quite the journey with these guys.
And, you know, I'm always grateful to be here with y'all to talk markets
markets and to see all these narratives come to pass, right? I guess we can talk about just
and to see all these narratives come to pass, right?
how well crypto has been reacting amidst equity weakness. It really seems that Trump is coming
after Powell now directly, calling him a major loser. That was honestly a hilarious way to start the day.
I wonder if there's a sound clip of Trump actually saying that, or if Trump just said that, like just a comment that he made and it wasn't recorded.
But if any of you guys have that soundbite or clip of Trump calling Powell a major loser,
please drop that in the comment section.
I think that would be absolutely hilarious to put up on the nest.
But, man, equity is down 2.5%, 3% today, while BTC is back at $87,88K, and Seoul has reclaimed its previous range before it went sub $100,
where there was a lot of people that were making all these threads about a meme coin super cycle
and things going to tens and twenties of billions of dollars per meme and got bearish on Seoul,
which has been the leader of this market
since the ftx lows getting bearish at 90 to 100 bucks and the soul has just been absolutely
chatting farcoin back up uh to its local highs since those march lows at 20 cents farcoin is
trading at close to 93 cents depending on the exchange that you're looking at right now, of course. And we also have hype hitting a new high since it bottomed out at nine bucks.
And I remember we were talking about hype going to single digits here on these spaces back when it was trading above $20.
And, you know, these prices, whether to the upside or the downside, they might seem crazy when people put them out at first.
But trends have a way of shocking people to both the upside and the downside.
And I think the future is looking bright.
Honestly, I think this tariff situation that the market has been fearful of for months, you're starting to see crypto not really
budge. You're starting to see even the equity markets not really care as much, right? You are
seeing a bit of a correction since that massive spike that we had last week when we went to like
5,500 or something like that. But for the most part, like time-wise,
this tariffs narrative is just being thrown out the window.
And you're now seeing Trump direct his narrative to Jerome Powell,
calling him a major loser and all that sort of stuff.
And we also have a few other events today that are quite interesting.
We have Klaus Schwab or something like that.
He's the founder of the World Economic Forum.
He stepped down today, which is pretty interesting, honestly.
Who knows why that is.
But nonetheless, guys, I want to thank you all once again
for coming up, showing out, and tuning in.
I still think the path of least resistance for the crypto market is to the upside.
At the very least, until the yearly open, even on a technical basis, you're now seeing daily EMAs curling to the upside.
And usually when that happens, there's always a big spike.
And I think at the very least, we can continue to see a massive range being established for
the next couple of weeks, couple of months until monetary policy is changed or something
is changed or something fundamental happens with something like an NVIDIA.
fundamental happens with something like an NVIDIA.
But me personally, I remain optimistic since the lows at $74,000,
since the lows at $90 Sol, since the lows at $1,300 ETH,
since the lows at 4,800 SPX.
And I'm so optimistic that time-wise,
we're a hell of a lot closer to the bottom, and we're a hell of a lot closer to being back than for it being completely over. You have Farcoin leading, but I still don't really see the optimism with Farcoin like you did a Whiff, for example.
And I was touching upon this during the afternoon Discord call where for the first half of last year, Whiff had so much mindshare on CT that that i think even like elon had mentioned it uh correct me if i'm wrong
sure donnie but i'm pretty sure elon commented while he was streaming diablo uh and playing
he commented on whiff that he has seen the meme and he likes it and you're just not seeing that
with farcoin honestly like we do see some mindshare
on CT and definitely outside of TradFi. But with the typical things like Elon recognizing
it and things like that, we still haven't really seen that. And people remain skeptical
of Farcoin. But yet with Whiff, people are bullish 24-7 on Whiff
because it has a hat, because it's going on a sphere.
But Farcoin, if we're going to talk about a quote-unquote hated rally, which hated rallies
only happen to the downside, never the upside, it's still probably Farcoin, right?
And I think this thing is still bottomed it bottomed at 20 cents 18 cents
back in march and if memes are going to come back uh i still think that this thing looks
primed to be shib of last cycle where most memes topped out during the first half of the cycle in 21 but shib ended up making a new uh
a new all-time high but those are kind of my thoughts guys to open up the show i want to
welcome up donnie want to welcome up chill and most of all thank you guys the audience whether
you're tuning in live or you're tuning into the recording i want to thank you all for coming back to BB and our content here on X.
And of course, before we officially get started, guys, before we officially rant and banter about all things crypto markets and dubious speculation and all that good stuff, you guys can do me a few solid things.
It only takes a few moments of your time, only takes just a few clicks, right?
time only takes just a few clicks right the best way that you can show some love
to the space the best way that you can show your support is by clicking the
spaces tab once you do that you'll see a little link right above our profile
pictures there's a link that says x.com slash I slash spaces and if you guys
can do me one solid favor and smash up the like button, but most of all, retweet the space, guys.
You guys repost, retweet the space.
It does a number of things.
Helps out with the algorithm.
And, of course, that helps please our tech overlords.
And it gets more eyes and ears.
The brand helps bring more people to the spaces and all that good stuff.
And, of course, i'd be forever grateful you guys always do such a
great job at uh helping out with us when it pertains to the algo and stuff like that so
space i record as always once again i want to welcome you all so we got chill we got donnie
donnie brother how are you doing man welcome back Welcome back to the show. How was the long weekend?
It was definitely needed.
And it's honestly a great start to the week, man.
We had a BTC test 88K and some change.
And honestly, I think we're going to smash through it, man.
And Farcoin is going to see a dollar in change.
And as we've seen, whenever Farcoin has led in previous rallies like in q4
of last year uh it does set up for an interesting on-chain environment man so i want to welcome you
up man what's going on brother hey bro yeah i had a great weekend hope you did as well um it's been
good just to even though the market was super quiet and stuff it
was good to just turn your brain off for a little bit i was still you know checking the charts and
stuff especially yesterday because i just noticed there was some crazy manipulation on the charts
uh going on during that super low volume period and um yeah i literally tweeted something out
right before we got that like quite large candle on BTC.
And yeah, we're just kind of in this super critical setup right now. We're not really critical in the long term, just like in the short term, right? We don't want to really,
after making this much progress, it would suck to go back down to the 80s, 78, 80 before actually
confirming this uptrend. But but yeah i shared up in the nest
kind of the setup that was um showing itself yesterday and basically you had this like local
range that i was basically watching see if you you know form this local distribution and then go
lower to head towards to the 80 which is still you know valid in the higher timeframe set up for a wider accumulation down at those lows around,
we had the 74K low recently.
I was looking for a higher low at like 80 or 78
if this were to play out.
But I noticed in this range,
I've put up the volume profile in there
and that blue line going across in the range
is basically the POC, right?
Where the most volume was traded in that range and yeah you had this local distribution set up and you had
an untapped demand zone there like I've labeled 45M just a 45 minute order block demand and you
came in you know you bounced off of that but as you you know came into this 45 hour order block
45 minute order block,
you left a one-hour structure supply above.
And typically, because it's locally distributive like that
and you're leaving the supply above,
you would just come into that supply and then reject
if a market maker is controlling that level.
He would reject price at that level.
But we did reject initially.
And then right as price was about to go back to the POC,
you just started getting a lot of volume rushing into the chart.
And that's where I was like,
oh, crap, someone's stepping in with size here.
Obviously, it's either a market maker or a sailor or something like that.
And then we got this crazy candle.
So the setup locally now looks like strong right because you're reclaiming this um that wick high that we had in the middle
which was around i think like 86 uh 500 or something like that we've reclaimed and we've
pushed you know quite far out of this range now to where it's you know considered a range break in my view so
we've you know we've pushed out of it and we came back to retest that same level that 86 500 so again we've left a lot of demand below even back to where that poc is there's a massive like
12 hour demand uh zone right there so i'm kind of thinking that we could go as low as that level around 85,
500 or 85 flat as kind of the lowest point for this to hold out as like a local uptrend to try
and get above 88.8K. That'll be the line in the sand for me for this setup. If we get above 88.8,
that'll be the line in the sand for me for this setup.
If we get above 88.8,
then I think we're bullish to travel to at least 99.5.
But that's the area where there's a ton of liquidity above it
to where if you do get there,
I'm thinking that we're probably going to squeeze to the all-time high.
So again, we're in this zone where nothing is confirmed yet,
but it looks locally pretty good.
But getting above 88.8 is gonna
start to make you know is basically gonna give me the case that that low is more likely than not in
at um the 74.4k low so yeah regardless of all the news and everything i've kind of just
turned my brain off with that news stuff and i'm just watching this chart on super low time frames
seeing what we're getting seeing if there's's anything giving it away that we're actually
going to break above this 88.8. But if not, and the setup is just nothing, then yeah,
I'm still expecting a wider accumulation to play out with a third tap coming in around 80k or 78k.
If this doesn't hold out until let's say like the FOMC or whatever, right?
We're thinking of the FOMC potentially
being a bullish catalyst, right?
There's still a bunch of economic data to come out
at the end of this month, at the start of May,
to where you get a new point of data
and the Fedstone completely shifts, right?
So whatever Jerome Powell is saying
at this particular moment in time
is at this particular moment in time.
One piece of data can change everything.
So you can't rule anything out
until that final date comes.
And yeah, just play the chart locally here
and just see how it's shaping up before we get there.
But yeah, stock market is also, you know, people saying it's nuking, but like I had
this zone marked out last week at 5,100 as like a higher low.
You did get a nice four hour close bouncing off of that level.
But yeah, we'll see how long this takes the bottom.
It could just be what we've seen you know multiple
times uh in the history of the bitcoin and stock market correlation where btc just bottoms first
stock market takes a little bit longer people are still freaking out and we're kind of just like
edging higher and higher on bitcoin and then the stock market bottoms as well
but yeah we'll see you know there's a lot of speculation and theories. The end of US exceptionalism.
The stock market's going to zero.
There's no bid.
China's not buying.
How are you going to fill that demand?
All this kind of stuff.
I'm literally just cutting everything
and just looking at the charts on low timeframes and daily
and just seeing how we shape up going into these catalysts like the fomc but yeah things are
looking then yeah donnie man you you know what's uh what's it's not really a concern it's just
something that's like honestly insane to watch is how perpetually down only the dollar has been
how perpetually down only the dollar has been and it's to the point where if you look at the monthly
on uh on on the on on usd uh dxy basically whatever um dude like this is the biggest drop
that we've had uh and i'm looking at this from that zero hedge post that he made like three
hours ago even though zero hedge is kind of a doomer he's been calling for a great depression
for over a decade now but i'll put it up on the that's all we need to know but uh like like dude
um the drop on the dxy uh on the monthly it, this is the biggest drop that we've had since early 2009.
And I just don't think, man, still that Trump is going to continue this whole charade with tariffs.
And we're seeing the shift now in narrative, right? narrative right trump is now going after powell and not really you know just yapping about tariffs
24 7 which is kind of annoying at this point really but um yeah it seems like i can't see
the post because my nest isn't working oh oh man so spaces are spaces are probably crashing out then
yeah yeah if we're not able to see the nest then like yeah spaces are probably crashing out then. Yeah. If we're not able to see the nest, then spaces are probably...
I can see it.
Spaces are probably going to drop.
I can see it.
Okay.
Okay.
But if you just pull up the monthly on DXY, it's the biggest monthly drop that we've had in about a decade and a half, man.
In 2022, we had a drop like this.
On the 1st of November.
I'm saying...
Yeah, I'm looking at that.
But I'm saying, like, percentage drawdown-wise,
on the month, we're basically, like,
right on par with Q1 of 09.
And I also remember that drop in uh in november of uh 22 as well
that's basically on the market bottom so i'm wondering like even though i don't really like
to use the xy much i'm wondering like if this is just more added confluence um with just markets
being at a at a low you combine that with where the VIX was at.
And the VIX was so elevated, man.
Like it wasn't just a huge one-day spike.
This was like multiple daily candles on the VIX being above 40, being above 50.
And we had the largest amount of value wiped in the U.S. stock market in the quickest amount of time ever.
A 23 plus percent drawdown on SPX in less than two months with SPX was trading at 6147 and nuked all the way down to 4800.
The amount of value that was lost during that time period was egregious.
It was insane.
Yeah, and the speed is important to note.
Yeah, yeah.
It would have been worse if we start trending down in the stock market with an unbreakable downtrend that just takes its worse, right? If we start trending down in the stock market
with an unbreakable downtrend
that just like takes its time, right?
Because then, you know, reversing back to bullish
is just going to take so many months.
So the fact that it was like very sharp and painful
and it's all like narrative news-based, fear-induced,
it can be reversed pretty quickly, right?
But again, like I'm still looking at um you know
we're in this we're in this point in time right now where it's just like there's a hundred different
theories that you can speculate on about what's happening which is why i'm kind of stressing the
fact that i'm just going to look at all of the relevant charts day by day you know low time frame
and just see what's happening if i see something that truly triggers like a big invalidation for me
that we're going like much lower, for example,
then I'll make that very clear.
But like right now, you know,
if you're not positioning for at least tactical upside on,
you know, the crypto market, BTC, whatever,
I think it's a wasted opportunity
because everything does actually look quite good.
Even like this whole thing around DXY,
I could speculate and give out my theories
as to what I think is going on and all that.
But since the last cycle,
since the COVID cycle,
we've had this absolute blow off top on the dollar.
So even in 2022,
when we note this monthly drawdown,
which is actually greater than this month's drawdown.
That one was 6.9%,
and the one we've got right now is 6.2% down on DXY.
And you said that marked the bottom.
Well, it should, because if you have such a strong dollar,
it just makes financial conditions globally terrible.
So I don't really care how this is going down right now
because, again, there's so many speculative theories
and it's like this whole the end of the dollar
as the reserve currency and all these theories.
But I'm just looking at the chart
and I know what a weak dollar can do to financial conditions
and what it's done the past two cycles specifically
after dropping below 100.
Once all this news and all this uncertainty gets settled,
and if the charts are still looking well-structured
with accumulation setups and things like that,
and actually looking to trend higher while DXY is going down,
then I can't be bearish on the DXY
because I think it's just going to bring more liquidity
to an asset that's showing me that upside is about to unfold.
We know BTC is pretty tightly correlated to global liquidity.
If this dollar is going down and you're seeing
all of these central banks and their economies
easing their financial conditions,
like Trump keeps going on about how Europe just keeps lowering rates
for the seventh time or whatever.
Yeah, they're easing conditions, right?
That's global liquidity going up.
So until this entire setup on BTC is completely invalidated,
there's no point being bearish, right?
Because of some speculative theories that you've got in your head.
Joe, brother, if you have any thoughts, man,
feel free to chime in, man.
Welcome up, brother. Hey, appreciate you guys having me back.
No, I'm listening to Donnie just, you know,
just freaking cook right now.
But I agree with a lot of what he's saying, specifically the
portion about DXY breaking down and not necessarily trying to force a theory in there as to why.
And because I do feel like we are, number one, living in a historical time right now that not many people have lived through.
And so recognizing that not even the president of the Atlanta Fed, for example, not even he knows
what's going on with all the resources that he has at his disposal. So it doesn't really make
much sense for any of us to speculate as to why, but just kind of be reactive to their
charts and look at what's happening. And what's happening right now, you see Bitcoin showing
strength, specifically Solana showing strength, Fartcoin showing strength. That tells me a few
things. Number one, Bitcoin overall, we're looking good. We broke out of the downtrend. As long as we can stay above 86K,
to be honest, I'm still bullish. I would love if we can... I think Donnie was eyeing the same
88K level. But as long as we can stay above 86K, I'll stay bullish. I'm good. I would love for us to get a close above 86K. But I'm really,
really, really interested in Solana right here, man, because I'm looking at ETH breakdown. And
we all know how I've been still bullish on ETH despite it going down. And I still am bullish on
ETH, but I have to look at the charts
and realize that something is changing here. And I do feel, I saw that Vitalik, he posted something
about switching from EVM to another virtual machine or something like that. But it just seems like there's too many holes being poked into my ETH thesis right now.
So what I'm going to do is I'm going to do exactly what we just said.
Just look at the charts and just react to what the chart is doing.
Sol ETH, absolutely freaking bullish.
It's making new highs on a daily.
And when you look at also Sol BTC, it's pulled back, but it seems like it's settling down and
ready to move up again. So I'm looking at that and I'm thinking, well, from this point,
So I'm looking at that and I'm thinking, well, from this point, I'll wait until I'm not bearish ETH, but I have to wait until ETH can kind of like settle down a little bit.
And I'm just going with the asset with more strength, with more volume on chain, with more activity.
And that seems to be Solana at this point.
And I've been banging the drum on,
you know, trading on chain utility projects on Solana, specifically the ones coming out of
PumpFun. And I know not a lot of people like to hear that. A lot of people think it's all
scams and rugs and et cetera, but it's not. There are a lot of actually solid teams and a lot of
innovative products being built. And I'm looking at Solana itself,
and it looks like a freaking rocket ship. But the question that I'm posing is,
I don't like to think cycles and alt season anymore. I'm more of a person that thinks
risk on or risk off. But just for the sake of argument and simplifying it, do we think Solana
rallies and leads us into a sort of alt season that normally would be Ethereum's role?
And I'm thinking, yes, I'm looking at everything from revenue, on-chain activity,
from revenue, on-chain activity, you know, and I do feel like, you know, Ethereum is losing steam.
Now, it does still hold the TVL.
It does.
There's still a ton of metrics that, you know, kind of favor ETH.
But the reality is there's a competing L1.
And while it's not the top dog, it is kind of eating away at market share. I think that's going to start being reflected in the price of Solana and the market cap of Solana.
So with that said, still not bearish ETH.
Again, you can be bullish on two assets at one time, but I'm neutral ETH right now until I see it show some strength.
ETH right now until I see it show some strength. But I'm looking at every, there's a lot of charts
that look ready to pop specifically on Solana. And I'm looking also at BTC that looks ready to
make a really good move up over the next, let's say, month or two. And so that's my position and my thesis right now is that Solana will take Ethereum's
place, at least for the moment, to lead us into a sort of alt season or let's say a risk-on season.
And then you're looking at charts like Fartcoin that are retesting this key monthly resistance level, but it's looking absolutely great.
It's looking beautiful and showing a lot of strength going to test this resistance.
So that's what I'm going with right now, positioning myself heavily on Solana.
Not saying I'm not positioned on ETH.
Again, I want to make that clear.
I'm neutral ETH.
I'm bullish all my ETH bags, but I'm watching Solana and Solana's ecosystem and everything on chain there from Farcoin to Popcat.
But also the utility, more specifically the utility tokens, all the value that's being created.
Because historically, all the value that has been and innovation that's been introduced is on Ethereum.
But now we're seeing a shift where some of that is actually leaking out to Solana.
Let me ask you a question, man.
question man when it comes to like utility i'll be honest man um personally i think most altcoins
When it comes to utility, I'll be honest, man.
are scams and have zero utility i i always wonder what is a utility token like is like what's the
difference between something like ai16z which you can call it a utility token on soul compared to a token like a chain link right
where it's a utility token on ETH, right?
Like, what is there to do with the token is my question with these utility tokens.
I've never really interacted with any of these utility tokens outside of, like, buying them on-chain or a centralized exchange.
Like, what would
be the difference between them then like yeah AI 16 Z compared to like a chain
link or even like a meme coin like with so I just posted a tweet about this
today but we have to understand that a lot of the tokens that we see in crypto
they're absolutely not needed a lot of the tokens that we see in crypto, they're absolutely not needed. A lot of the
products that are being built, they can run without a token. I think most of us know that.
However, there's a difference between some of the older, quote unquote, utility tokens and
some of the new ones. We saw kind of a preview of some of these new age utility tokens like, you know, things like revenue share,
and just all these like little like buybacks and burns, et cetera,
these deflationary tokenomics.
But they were introducing along with a lot of other tokens that they,
they encouraged to come out.
They introduced a new ways of capturing value.
And that's what utility tokens are.
And that's how I judge them is based on the value capture.
Not every token has a good value capture.
A lot of these, like, you know, a lot in the top 200, they're VC-backed, they're low-flow, high FDV, just kind of like, you know, VC, like VC, P&Ds almost. And so the top 200, it's not the top 200 in terms of
fundamental potential, but they're the top 200 just in terms of market caps. It really,
it's all about who's investing the most or which VC is, which one is the most backed by VCs or what have you.
But when you look at value capture, as in what does the token do within a certain project
or ecosystem, that's where there's a lot of difference.
And I was having this discussion earlier on Twitter.
It's always going to be an experimentation element with utility tokens. And we all know that
because at the same time, this, this is kind of cutting edge. And I mean, again, a lot of the
tokens coming out in 2021 cycle, you know, they're, the tokenomics are vastly different than the ones
coming out in 2023. And then even now in 2025, there's a lot of differences with what we just like, you know, something like
that just is more sentiment based. It's more, it's more mimetic in terms of how it captures
that value. That's what most of these like 2021, like what does theta do? You know what I mean?
Like, I'm not, I'm not like knowledgeable about theta. I'm not like bearish data. I'm not trying
to fund the community or anything, but I'm just saying like, there I'm not bearish data. I'm not trying to FUD the community or anything.
But I'm just saying there's no reason to hold the token.
It's the same thing with Ripple, for example.
There's no revenue share.
Maybe you psyop it with some governance or something like that.
But there's really nothing that's intrinsically valuable about the token.
And that's what some of these new age tokenomics are fixing.
So when I look at utility tokens, it is the last thing I'll say on this, is I'm looking at, when I look at
projects overall, I'm looking at team, tech, and tokenomics. So when you look at something like
a virtuals, where that sort of deflationary tokenomics where you have to pair the virtual token
with your agent token as you create it,
that's good value capture.
As the growth of, I'll just say business
or the crypto company, that's how I look at these.
These are all kind of crypto companies.
As you look at the business model,
if it's closely intertwined with the token,
then growth in business or adoption of services means growth in the token.
That's a utility token to me.
Brother, sounds like you're super bullish on hype then, man.
Yeah.
You basically gave the bull case for Hyperliquid.
I got to say.
Flat out.
I got to get a position in hype. I know it's already like bouncing decently off the lows, but you know, I'm seeing that it's taking a lot of, uh, share market share from a lot of these other, uh, a lot of its other competitors. So I'm, and I'm actually going to start using hype. I'm going to start experimenting with it first before I actually take a position, but it's looking pretty good, man. I gotta say.
a position but it's looking pretty good man i gotta say yeah it's it's um that when we talk
about innovation in crypto and just products um hyper liquid is probably the best product that's
come out into the space since uniswap uh it's it's the it's that damn good honestly it is that damn good um and i think like
if we pair anything against eth it looks good right but if you go on like hype soul right i
think that's like a good pair hype soul um and even like let me check uh like hype btc hype btc is looking quite nicely also
um if we're bullish on this market like you need a new l1 token to lead also kind of like in 20 i
posted a video up by the way on the nest i referenced this a lot but in 2023 in september when soul was trading at
like 12 13 bucks um i asked max to do a video with me because i had this huge thesis um on solana
i actually had a huge thesis on soul back at the lows at like 10 bucks in january of 2023 and it
had to do with the solanaophone which ironically didn't actually materialize
but it did materialize with price so that's what matters at the end of the day and we made a video
comparing soul to eth i put it up on the nest for you guys uh just so you can see that when you
tune into these shows why um i'm just so much more bullish on seoul than any other major
and i kind of regard it as the leader for altcoin expansion to the upside um but yeah chill i'm glad
that like you know you're recognizing this with seoul and as much as people don't really like
pump fun and you know i have my views on pump fun i do think it's extracted a lot from
the market but we can't deny the winners right like we can't deny all the ai projects that have
come out of pump fun we can't deny all the memes that have come out from pump fun and honestly like
soul has been that leader time and time again um either to mark tops or to mark bottoms
mark the bottom um in in late 2022 a few weeks after ftx collapsed uh it marked it marked uh
the top when trump coin came out and it marked the bottom uh after that last major vc unlock like a couple of weeks
ago earlier this month um the last huge solana unlock happened and of course it was dumped on
the market it hit 90 bucks and here we are trading like 60 percent higher now and you know we were just comparing um sold to eth and how it can probably
be like this cycle's denominator for leading the market and alt season all that stuff and during
that time i remember in the discord we were playing things um like neon like prime a few
other soul projects as well
that people weren't really paying much attention to
because soul on-chain wasn't really a thing.
To buy Neon, you had to buy 10 Neon tokens every 15 minutes because liquidity was so shitty unless you had access to
buy a bit account right um same thing with like other stuff all you really had was bonk orca
radium um and neon there there really wasn't much else to bid on soul outside of those few tokens and
prime of course but um and here's the thing too you had you had um sustained volume with a lot
of memes like i know a lot of people don't like memes i'm not the you know i'm i don't i'm mostly
trade utility um and i try to look for know, the next kind of big runner.
But, you know, culturally, I feel like Solana has cemented its place in crypto and it continues to kind of eat away at the cultural market share that Ethereum has, I mean, you have on chain where it's, you know, it's more fun. It's,
it's more just, it's just more good vibes versus like this kind of like, you know,
I don't want to say ivory tower mindset, but like it's on, on ETH, these, there, there's a lot more,
there's a lot less going on culturally and from a community standpoint.
And then when you have guys like Vitalik doing whatever Vitalik does,
it doesn't necessarily shine a good light on Ethereum
because you have Vitalik just now using Aave recently
when Aave has been one of the top DeFi protocols on his chain for
years. But then you have, you know, guys like Tully that are actively involved in his ecosystem
and recognizing value where value is being provided. So, yeah, I think just culturally,
there is also, you know, a difference there between Solana and Ethereum. So yeah, I'm really bullish Solana
ecosystem from here. And I've doubted it. At one point in 2023, I decided to jump in and I was
still mostly on ETH. But now it's become clear to me, Again, not thinking in terms of cycles or alt seasons,
just risk on or risk off.
We're heading into a risk on season
and it's looking like that will take place on Solana.
I feel like this AI agent season that we had
was just kind of round one of what we're about to see here
over the next coming months.
Yeah, I think AI is going to come back at some point,
probably when NVIDIA goes into price discovery, honestly. I'm thinking sometime in Q4.
q4 that's uh that's kind of what i'm buying right here but i can't really touch on uh
That's kind of what I'm eyeing right here.
on video specifically is looking at looking like right now i'm really just paying attention to uh
spx and um and the cues but i could see nIA hitting like 75 bucks,
something like that.
To be honest, bro,
I'm mostly looking at the fart coin chart.
That's, I'm not even going to lie. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Good barometer to see like how risky.
Great suck.
Yo, look, you already know,
hot air rises, you know.
And I just feel like that is a good test as to a good testament to what the appetite for risk is on Solana.
Keep in mind, most people on Solana, they traded memes at one point, memes that were, you know, not really worth that much.
A lot of people got wrecked, but that risk appetite didn't go
away. That's why charts like Fartcoin are still going up as much as they are. But a lot of people
are kind of shyer with some memes or with most memes, but they're looking for more value. And
that's where you see a lot of these utility projects are starting to shine. But I'll leave it at that. I won't beat that drum too much. But I am looking at this Fartcoin chart. And as soon as that breaks out, I'm pretty sure the lid is going to be off.
Bitcoin does, I'm pretty sure Solana is going to outperform in a meaningful way over these coming months, just like ETH would do in past cycles.
Donnie, man, if you want to touch on Farcoin, I know you did a mega thread a couple of days back, man.
I'll put it up on the nest. I'll put it up right back, man. I'll put it up. I'll put it up on the nest.
I'll put it up right now, man.
That was a crazy thread.
Man, that took me so long to make.
But yeah, it's just like
it's gotten to the point right now, right?
I had speculations before
the recent price action stuff.
But if you guys go through that thread,
not right now, but in your spare time or whatever, there's a bunch of charts there and then you know added speculation
on top but when it's trading essentially almost vertically against btc vertically against soul
it's just hard to ignore when you also have like a broader cycle context to where you're kind of waiting for another wave on BTC
to happen soon, right?
So if you've got this thing that's trading
in an uptrend against, you know,
the two majors that are essentially going
to propel this thing forward even higher,
it's already trading that well against them
while the stock market is nuking,
while everyone's like mostly stabled up, scared to enter, you know, predicting a bear market recession, all this kind of stuff.
When all of that changes, this thing has the potential with the current setup, with all of these charts showing us, you know, what they're showing us right now for easily for this thing to go
break the all-time high and enter price discovery.
And when it enters price discovery
and you have Sol still approaching its own high
and then Sol breaks
the all-time high that it just reached,
you can get to a point in all of these major charts
where eventually, you know, you get the sort of end of cycle, let's call it liquidity shift,
which we've seen, you know, and it happens to like, you know, most asset classes, right? You
have the major leading assets going up first, once they reach, you know, essentially an overvalued
area, but the market is still, you know, essentially an overvalued area, but the market
is still, you know, roaring and the appetite is still high, you get a lot of profit taking
at certain levels that then go down the risk ladder into essentially, you know, the top
performing coins of the cycle, right?
And, you know, that's seemingly to be Fartcoin from the Sol chain.
So if it's already front running the Sol all-time highs and then soul actually reaches a level where you know whales
are like all right let me let me take profit here and let me rotate it down the down the ladder while
we have this window of opportunity you get any sort of you know liquidity from that going into
fartcoin while it's in this like price discovery uptrend let's say a reaccumulation or
something like that and if the all-time high is three billion already this thing can easily pass
10 billion right it's just a conditional timeline so you know certain things need to unfold BTC needs
to go to price discovery Sol needs to confirm this accumulation head towards that all-time high
the broader market fear needs to go away and have and we need this
like you know clear pathway of uh certainty in the market you know maybe that's from the fed um
changing their tone with you know how um
how dovish they're gonna be uh for let's, a timeline of like three to six months, right?
If we're in July, let's say,
and they project like an extra three cuts on their dot plot.
Well, yeah, there you go.
You've got like another six months runway right there.
So you get all of these things, you know,
check marking along the way.
This token can easily go into the deck of billions.
But the main thing that I wrote in this thread was,
I think it's the fifth post, the bid concentration effect.
I've mentioned this many times, right?
In this cycle, we've seen that derivatives are diluting
every single narrative, whether it's like a layer one,
whether it's an AI agent, an animal meme, whatever.
And because this token is so silly and it's about farts,
there's no other derivatives that really have staying power
other than this token and now the one on base
that kind of memed all of the content around it
because these guys don't produce anything right.
So if you're wanting to bid this narrative
that's showing itself to be you know
one of the strongest performing tokens uh of the recent time and it's trading you know vertically
against btc vertically against soul waiting for a broader cycle um push to the upside
this is where all of the liquidity is going to flow if people are wanting to bid this narrative
which they will because green candles are the best marketing, right?
If nothing else is really moving
and this thing is just going higher and higher and higher,
people are going to want to get in on it.
So you've got that bid concentration effect
where you can't create another derivative in this narrative.
There can always be another AI agent
that's better than the recent one that came out
or they have something that's a little bit shinier. But for this, it's literally just those two tokens, Firecoin on Sol, Firecoin
on Base trades, you know, one to one price correlated with the one on Sol. And that's it.
Like all the other derivatives are too vulgar. I saw, you know, we had that other one. It was like
butthole token or something. It's like that doesn't really have global mindshare capacity
because it's just too vulgar.
It doesn't cover all of the demographics of young children
and grandparents, for example.
They can all find this somewhat amusing, funny, and silly.
But all of the other derivatives are just too vulgar to go viral.
So again, you come into this bid concentration
effect that's in this cycle, that's probably the most important thing to have a token that can hit
decabillions and continue running. Because there can always be another shinier thing that's going
to dilute this token, but not in this narrative, right? You've literally had thousands of different
variations of animals and stuff
to where you know we're watching charts like whiff which at the time it was like you know
it was performing super well because you know there wasn't very many other i don't know dogs
or around that sort of idea but as the cycle kept going you know whiff was struggling to continue
that upwards momentum just because you know there, there was just another dog, another dog, another meme, another animal, another this, another that.
And people are just, you know, rotating their bags to chase the new thing that, you know,
obviously WIF is at 4 billion. How high can it go if there's 100 derivatives being made and people
are just, you know, rotating their bags to the new thing. But with this narrative, like, it's just
those two tokens, which is
why they kind of have no ceiling depending on how high the broader market goes. Let's say you get
the absolutely ridiculous bullish scenario and everything we've been waiting for for crypto
actually does unfold. We go into a broader global liquidity expansion. all of the fear gets completely taken away.
Even just the global liquidity expansion alone, if it actually plays out how it should,
if I delete all of this FUD and news and narrative-driven fear, it should last six to
nine months at least, right? But a bullish uptrend in Bitcoin for six to nine months from these prices, and you get a liquidity shift out of gold, which is like, extremely, extremely overvalued right now. But you know, not overvalued in the sense that people have like fear and uncertainty. But if that goes away, you know, there's going to be a bid on risk, you could get a liquidity shift out of there. If you get all of these things lining up for BTC, and you have a narrative that is highly concentrated
in liquidity, then yeah, it has no ceiling. It can literally just hit multiple decabillions.
So whether it hits those or not is not part of the equation. The equation is that this is the
potential. And among the entire market that's out there, that's susceptible to being diluted by a new token over and over again,
this is a pretty good bid to at least have some of your portfolio into.
Because it's proving itself.
These charts don't lie.
If you go read through the thread, you can't avoid that.
Literally, when the stock market started plummeting,
Bitcoin bottomed and started uptrending and
pulled a 5X.
It's pretty crazy.
So yeah, I think the narrative
is just here to stay. And if we do get the wave
up, it should be
the top performing narrative
moving forward.
You still have like...
Go ahead.
No, finish cooking, bro. i was just gonna say you obviously
have pepe as um you know kind of the competitor at this point where i feel like a lot of people are
wanting to see if this thing can flip pepe and of course you know pepe is on that one
chain that isn't performing yet so it's it's up, right? If ETH starts to really overperform because something fundamentally changes,
whether that's like BlackRock really sinking their teeth into trying to get
their product top of the line, they might change some things, yield,
whatever they have, right?
This whole thing around treasuries, I won't cover it.
But let's say ETH actually does perform due to a fundamental shift and
these guys start market making candles green on the ETH chart, then it'll be
hard to pass Pepe because Pepe will get over-speculated on again.
It's already the leading token. It's got billions in volume
daily and it's higher market cap at the moment it will be hard to pass that right even
though that um that context of eth doing super well will also benefit seoul i think pepe would
still claim the number one spot but firecoin would come up pretty close right but if that doesn't
happen and eth really does actually lag and it's that you know maybe it peaks around like on this
next rally around like four
five six k right where whereas in my view if if something fundamentally changes this thing should
go over 10k um then fight coin has a pretty good uh you know chance of overtaking it and i shared
on that uh thread on the eighth post kind of comparing it to Pepe when it launched. It had the Binance listing and then
it went through this endless chop sideways before we had a broader market push to the
upside where BTC went to 74k and then Pepe went absolutely parabolic. Farccoin's kind of doing
that same thing right now. It had this Trump peak at the January highs where Seoul also hit an all-time high,
so the layer one was going crazy.
And it's kind of waiting for this next market rally to the upside
while being in a very strong position on the pair charts
against BTC and Seoul, which Pepe did not have at that time.
Which makes me think that if something fundamentally doesn't change
for ETH here,
and it just goes up because the broader market's going up,
then I think this thing could get really close to flipping Pepe,
just based off its current positioning with these charts, right?
And if BTC goes to price discovery, pretty crazy.
pretty crazy. And I'll add to that. I mean, just historically, we've seen meme coins go to
And I'll add to that.
an $80 billion market cap, specifically with Doge. And then we saw others. Obviously,
there was less dilution then. But at the same time, we haven't really seen the mass kind of onboarding of retail yet.
Yes, we have seen retail come on chain, but I feel like that's more natural adoption.
When you give people an app that's available on the App Store and easy onboarding to buying stuff on chain to the point where they don't even realize that's what they're
doing, you're going to have some people kind of like leak into the market. And so that's where
you got a lot of these meme coins that were popping off and everything. But I feel like we
still haven't gotten that sustained sort of stickiness when it comes to retail. I mean, last year, not last year,
last cycle, quote unquote, but in 2021, when I first got here, you know, there were YouTube
videos, there was, you know, news articles about people being millionaires overnight. It was heavily
covered. And we haven't really seen that yet.
So the question now becomes when we do see that, what's something that's easy to understand, kind of silly, kind of funny, but in the background actually has a really deep and crazy background if you look into, and is also attached with one of the biggest,
you know, narratives of the cycle, which is AI. You know, I think that's Farcoin. So when we do
see a little bit more stickiness when it comes to retail, when they're here to actually, you know,
buy the top essentially, or buy the second half of, you know, a crazy leg up, you know, I think, you know, something like
Farcoin is going to be on, you know, maybe top two, top three on the list of things that,
you know, everyone may be attracted to. So that's also what I'm watching as well.
In addition to everything that Donnie said, and I feel like that's why even at a price of $10,
we still have a bit of room to go beyond that,
depending, of course, that'll be depending on,
you know, the way that retail floods into the market
as they do traditionally.
Wasn't that Moonshot, man?
Like that platform that you're... yeah, there's, there's moonshot, there's, you know, phantom wallet. When I, I visited some
family and I found out that my 15 year old nephew was trading on Solana. I was like, what,
what do you mean? You're like, how did you get there? And he explains to me that
he saw some ad and so he tried it and whatever. And now he's trading meme coins because of TikTok
videos or something. And so that's why I say there's going to be some sort of
retail demographic that enters the market because of natural adoption. There's going to be some sort
of adoption that happens when you have such easy ways to just come on chain. But again,
these aren't the sticky conditions that we saw in 2021 and cycles past. So that's why, again, I still feel like there's room for a lot more of that to happen.
On a much larger scale.
Man, FOMC is in like two weeks.
I think so.
When is it exactly it's like May 8th or something right Donnie yeah my seventh imagine if Powell increased interest
rates oh dude no we're fucked like like man that'll be like a disaster. That'll be a disaster if he actually raises rates.
Oh, man.
But Powell's not like that.
He's a lawyer.
Powell is a lawyer.
That's so funny, man.
He's going to have to lower rates either at this next meeting
or at the one after that.
But, dude, I'm looking at SPX right now, and I think there's a chance that we test the 200-week moving average at just below 4,700.
I'm looking at the weekly chart right now on the S&P 500.
And, yeah, that 4,800 level, like I got extremely bullish. I'm like, yo,
this is the fucking bottom. But like this, God, I just can't, I can't shake this feeling, brother.
And every, every like mini bear market that we've had since the generational bottom in March of 2009,
we bottom out at the 200-week moving average.
And it's only 120 points below off of our current low.
And I think if we hit that that level it's going to be like
within a day and it's going to get bought right back up like if there's going to be any damage
done to this market um and equities i think it has to happen before the fomc meeting
meeting and maybe it happens like the day of FOMC and with the S&P having a four handle
Powell's gonna have to like move the needle a little bit I just feel like a lot of people
right now like all their dry powder all their dry powder is gone and there's not really much activity.
And I don't blame people for not really being active right now.
It's really only when things are in price discovery where people come back into this market.
And all we had were meme coins and some AI vaporware stuff.
And I think that's the byproduct of the space when there's no QE and stuff.
Because without QE, without stimulus of some sort, this space does not really have much innovation.
All the L1 tokens and all that stuff, they came out during access, an access of STEMI, right?
Like, even ETH, right?
Like, Yellen was, I think we were in, like, QE2 or QE3
when Yellen was in charge of the Fed.
And when ETH came out, like late 2014 early 2015 i think eth came out in q2
of 2015 or q3 something along those lines pretty much like right after bitcoin had bottomed out
um wait when because i know the ico for ETH was in like August of 2014.
Um, let me like look this shit up.
So yeah, TGE for ETH was in Q3 of 2015, but the ICO was in, uh, was in, was in August of 2014.
Yeah.
Kobe led that shit, I think.
That was a wild time.
And that was when Yellen was pumping the shit out of the market.
Just take a look at how the Qs were during that time period.
Take a look at the S&P during that time period take a look at the
s&p everything was rage pumping man the year before uh the 2016 elections the pre-election
year was insane um but uh i don't really have much else to say guys i think uh i think today
was a great show i think today was a great show, even though spaces aren't really acting well today.
I'm seeing on my personal profile it says, unable to fetch space.
These things always happen whenever something crazy happens in the real world.
We had the Pope die. We had Klaus Schwab step down from the World Economic
Forum. We had Trump call the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, a major loser.
A lot of headlines, a lot of headline news today. And only the equity markets responded. There hasn't really been a crypto-driven headline since Hyperliquid getting hacked or Bybit getting hacked or any of that stuff.
Remember Lazarus Group, dude?
Everyone just moved on from that after that hack happened on Bybit.
But that's it from us, guys. Yeah yeah we're wrapping up now so donnie chill
thank you all so much guys if this is your first time tuning in we are because bitcoin we host
multiple daily live shows for you guys we have our youtube show called market check that show
is typically hosted at 11 a.m or through 11.15 a.m. Eastern Time, depending on how things are shaping up.
The show usually goes on for about an hour, hour and a half.
Then our second show is called Market Talk, hosted by me, Wabi, where I'm usually joined by a panel of speakers, content creators, and things of the like.
Start time is between 4.20 p.m. EST to 4.40 p.m. EST. And of course,
show also goes on for about an hour, hour and a half, sometimes two hours, depending on the day.
Bit of a slow day today, guys. It is Easter Monday. I'm still shocked at how in the world
is the U.S. stock market open where other markets are closed i think easter
weekend should honestly be a four day it should be a four day weekend i think people need rest
and a break from frying their brain receptors honestly but uh yeah we'll see you all on the
next show if this is your first time tuning in, feel free to give us a follow.
Feel free to give Donnie and Chill a follow.
And we'll see you all on the next one.
It's been a pretty chill stream.
Can't complain.
Can't complain at all.
Yeah, I don't really have much to say, man.
Donnie, chill.
If there's anything else that you want to say feel free uh to do so i'm sipping on uh mountain valley spring water uh it's a glass
bottle and i also tried out saratoga for the first time you know gotta make at least uh 10
000 and after you make 10 000 gotta make at least 20 ashton hall it's actually pretty good man
his morning routine is actually pretty gas um but waking up at 350 a.m i don't know i don't
know anything about that bro sleeping at that time yeah but waking up at that time yeah i don't know, man.
Yep.
All right, guys.
I'm going to go ahead and close off the stream.
Now I'm just trying to find an outro song.
I usually like to play these.
Well, while you look for it, I'll close out and just say Hot Air Rises.
That's all I have to say to close it out.
Appreciate you guys exactly
love the tech man all right guys yeah it's close to hitting a buck we're i think we're gonna hit
new uh new um new highs on far coin versus it's march i think we're gonna hit a dollar and change
but all right guys we'll see you on the next one peace
