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Market Talk- STOCKS HIT NEW HIGHS! ATH for BITCOIN and crypto soon!?
Recorded: June 27, 2025 Duration: 1:16:10Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored the bullish trends in the stock market, particularly with tech stocks like Nvidia reaching all-time highs, and how these movements could signal a forthcoming surge in the crypto market. The conversation emphasized the cyclical nature of market trends, the importance of stablecoins, and the potential for significant growth in altcoins as macroeconomic conditions improve.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. you I get up, and nothing gets me now
I've seen the chum so round
And I know
The chum chum
Just give a look at the speaker I can't just see this Oh, oh, oh, get the punch. Yes, get the punch. Stay here.
I can't just see this.
I can't just see this.
I can't just see this.
I can't just see this.
I can't just see this.
I can't just see this.
I can't just see this.
I can't just see this.
I can't just see this.
I can't just see this. I can't just see this. Nice. Come on, come on. Come on, come on. Come on.
My turn.
Come on, come on.
You are a good job.
What do you do?
Oh, yeah.
Come on.
Oh, no, no.
Sit back.
You did.
You say you did. Oh here. You say it.
Whoa.
You too.
Can't you see what you say?
I'm like, it's a regular chase.
I know what you say.
I can't just see what you say. just
so I Thank you. to market talk i hope you guys are all doing fantastic man what a weekly close across the
board for the stock market highest weekly close for the qqq ever highest weekly close for the spx
ever nvidia at all-time highs and man let me tell you we might be looking at this crypto market
being a bit stagnant compared to the equity markets but as we've said on this show over the last week or two
at some point when you start seeing the spx and the queues trade roughly five to ten percent above
their old all-time highs crypto typically catches up we've seen this in prior years before
in 2024 and in 2023 and this time is uh definitely not different and man i'm gonna put something up on the nest
at some point in the space but this is the fastest recovery that stocks have ever had
back to their old-time highs after a drawdown of over 20 that is massive this is a quicker recovery than 2020 COVID nuke. And I'm honestly just not in shock, but who am I kidding?
I am in shock. I'm in shock that the melt-up is actually happening right before our eyes. So
it's going to be a great show today, guys. I want to welcome you all. Welcome back to Market Talk
brought to you by BecauseBitcoin. I'm your host, wabi and uh welcome to the weekly wrap-up
we're gonna go ahead and uh talk all price action all that stuff but yeah before we do that um if
you guys can go ahead and show some love to the space best way to do that guys you already know
what the deal is just click the spaces tab below and then right up above our profile pictures you'll
see a link that says x.com slash i slash spaces smash up that like button if you're loving
the price action smash up that like button if you're grateful it'll be here but also don't
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the algorithm helps to bring more eyes and ears to the show and of course it brings awareness of
the brand uh with little to no effort really only takes a few moments. But spaces are recorded, as always.
But, yeah, man, the price action that we've seen this week
is just a taste of what's going to come to the crypto markets.
Right now, most of the action, as per usual in the summertime,
is in the equity markets.
But typically, when those vantage harm flows come in the equity markets,
usually by the second week of July, crypto often sees a huge move to the upside.
We saw that in 23 and 24.
And also, I think I'm pretty sure in 2021, going into August, right when those flows started in the equity markets again, crypto started just going absolutely insane. insane but i still hold my personal bias that whenever alts uh tend to bottom out against btc
i'm just not confident that it's going to be like 21 or even 17 i think a lot of people
that came in during last cycle have such a skewed version of what alt season is and
maybe that's a topic for another time maybe a few months from now and when others btc
actually starts to rally um it's been in a massive downtrend for multiple years now and things can
often range longer than you'd expect and i kind of have a theory that a lot of alts are now going
to bleed against eth um after they bottom against btc but that doesn't mean that we still can't have outperformers
right on chain is always going to be an absolute beast whether it's a bull market whether it's a
bear market so either way man dude donnie dude the time is now the equity markets have closed
officially at all-time highs for the first time since the inauguration. When Trump
had his inauguration, the S&P didn't do anything. It just ping-ponged within a 20-point range.
And of course, it was down only for months. And I'm glad that I got to save so many people
during that downturn. A lot of people lost a ton of
money and probably exited the market and it's going to take for a while for those people to
come back and you know it's indicative of what we're seeing in alts right soul is at like 140
and change eth is at abysmal prices relative to where it was when btc was first at 100k so
it's going to take a while for that liquidity to come back.
But when it comes back, it's going to be very swiftly, man.
But I want to welcome you on the show, man.
I know there's going to be some stuff to talk about, man.
So welcome on up, man.
Looking forward to the discussion.
It's quite the exciting close for the equity markets,
if I'm being
honest with you if we see a gap up for the s p at uh 64 6500 which is what i'm eyeing uh short term
then i'm a firm believer that uh a lot of these a lot of these coins um are gonna hit new year
to date highs year to date highs right i'm saying year to date highs but what's going on brother what have you got for us today hey bro how's it going um yeah
market's looking really good man it's it's it's feeling super suspenseful right now uh in the
crypto market really does feel like there's some sort of god candle brewing anytime it's like
boring weird chop but you see the macro picture is perfectly
aligned it's usually just some last minute uh nothingness until you get a really major move
in the market and yeah equities are just continuously performing to the upside
something that we called quite a historic pivot point i I would say, in these markets. Some of the highest level
institutional grade investors panicked at those bottoms and actually went risk off. And it feels
good to be on the right side of the trade ever since those lows and see it materialize now.
You're not even getting any clean retests on the S&P index, for example. Like you've had these very obvious levels of the breakout zone at 5,800.
You had the weekly gap below at 5,700.
Many people thinking you're going to get the pullback down there.
Nah, you just keep going higher.
You're having massive shakeouts like World War III, FUD events,
and all this kind of stuff coming into the market,
this kind of stuff coming into the market
and you're barely even moving to the downside.
and you're barely even moving to the downside.
I think the stock market literally went down like 1.3%, 1.4%
during that FUD event, which is nothing at all.
And now you're just gapping up to new all-time highs.
So it's clear that people are offside
and they're rushing to get in
as they keep seeing the incremental confirmation
that we've been going on about since the April lows materialize. So I think on BTC's chart specifically, there's just so much
energy building up on that chart along with actual technical stuff like liquidity points above,
just ready for a squeeze. I shared that gold fractal. I can't find it right now. I was busy writing something with BTC and gold basically looking identical. And the current correction that
we're having was a similar point on gold when it went to like 2,900 and pulled back to about
2,800 and then continued going into new all-time highs. I think we're at a similar point right
now. Obviously, you've had a slight deviation from that exact fractal,
but it's still contextually
the exact same to me.
So literally,
I'm saying probably
in the first two weeks of July,
you're going to have the breakout.
More so skewed towards sooner
rather than later.
I just think you're going to wrap this month up.
There's a few important updates like the, what's it called? The one big beautiful bill on the 4th of July and things like
that. A bunch of economic data in the first week of July as well. And that's also the start of a
new quarter, correct? July, August, and September. Yeah., yeah, just a bunch of nothingness
until we move on to the next quarter.
And I think BTC is ready to go here.
Technically on the chart,
fundamentally everything is lined up.
I can't find one chart that's pointing
to some sort of bearish conclusion
in the immediate term right now.
We've had the fear climax
with the World War III stuff,
so I really don't know what could send us to a fresh new low
if you know that the climax of that fear was 98.2k.
There's going to have to be something bigger than that.
And that was pretty big.
You had normies talking about what was going on there,
which that's pretty high mindshare across the globe.
So it'll have to be something bigger than that to send us lower than there,
which I just don't see in the horizon
at all. DXY also
just bleeding to the downside.
We've been looking at it losing
97.8 for some time,
and I'm glad it happened sooner rather than later.
This is like a down-only looking chart.
You're approaching that 17-year
channel that we've
outlined since the 2008 drop, which DXY dropped
to like 70, and you've been in an upwards channel ever since then with the absolute
peak after the COVID cycle at 115.
So a beautiful place for this chart to peak.
And if you lose 95 significantly and start trending to the 90s, which I think you are,
you could see a pretty big breakdown in DXY, which is going to shift this chart in a big way,
which means that you might be going in a completely different macro shift on this chart.
If you've been uptrending for 17 years and you finally break down to the downside,
it could indicate a prolonged time actually that finally break down to the downside, it could indicate a prolonged
time actually that DXY trends to the downside. So there's a lot of big picture stuff lining up
on charts fundamentally around the world, but also the short term is looking really good for all of
this to start materializing. So I don't know. I'm super excited. Yeah, everything's lining up. It feels like all
of the sort of FUD events and things like that, sure, they can always be a little bit more,
but it feels like we're climbing over the majority of it right now. And it's kind of past us. So
just waiting for price to validate that. And I think we start running here pretty soon.
Bro, I put up on the nest when Trump tweeted out in real time that this is a great time to buy.
And that was put out on April 9th, about seven minutes after the equity markets opened at $4,800.
And that was a nasty reversal.
1,300 points to the upside, which is kind of ironic, Donnie.
That's exactly the amount that we drew down within the same time period
that it took us to draw down.
That's how long it took us to melt up.
Actually, no, we actually melted a hell of a lot quicker than the drawdown
from top to bottom. You got to love the Trump market, man. You've got to love the Trump
market. And that was after the VIX went absolutely bazookas. And the way the VIX has acted over
the last year, man, has been so crazy. It makes you wonder, like, when is the next time that we're going to see the VIX going absolutely crazy?
And my assumption is probably next summer, the quarter before midterms, man.
But go ahead, man. You were going to say something?
I was just going to say gold is also rolling at the moment.
It's looking pretty weak, which is just another confluent point for BTC doing well over the short term here.
If that continues to roll, you're probably going to see some sort of, whether it's direct rotations or just bids flying into BTC.
Last time we saw something like this was the election rally, which that drop was only about 9%, which led to a 60% rally on
Bitcoin's chart. And now gold is down from top to local bottom around 11%. If you do actually lose
that low, which is around, what is that? 3,100. You're probably at least headed back down to 3k,
probably at least headed back down to 3k, which would be a 15% drop from a much higher market
valuation than it was when it dropped prior to the elections, while BTC is sitting at 107k.
So a bigger drop, a more inflated gold, and BTC primed for a breakout, which the last
gold to Bitcoin rotation led to a 60% rally,
I think BTC's going to have a pretty
good quarter as soon as we get
the breakout confirmation.
It's going to be fast.
I think it's going to be
summer offense rather than defense.
For sure.
I just think
that a lot of these
alts are just not going to come back.
You need some new narrative, man.
And it's crazy how people now think that their alts are now reflective of what Bitcoin is going to do.
And it's just not the case, man.
I would look at something like IWM.
I'm not sure if you've been keeping up with that one,
but it's the only end to see right now globally, I think,
that still isn't green year to date.
IWM still has to rally about 3% to be green year to date.
And, dude, if you go ahead and check uh the arc innovation etf which is kathy woodstock
that is now what's the ticker uh a r kk
right yeah a r kk and if you take a look at it it's now officially in an uptrend it is now
officially in an uptrend for the first time in years in years man
so if you've got that officially breaking out and going into an actual trend it reminds me of when
btc started uh breaking out of 32k that's that's what arc looks like right now um arc looks like bitcoin in like late october early november of uh of 2023
and you know it took it took like about a week or two for alts to really really catch up uh after
btc broke out of 32k that's when you had avax and say and all that stuff going crazy about a week after btc broke 32k after that coin telegraph
tweet or whatever um about a week week and a half after that that's when ults really started to kick
it turbo so that's how i'm kind of viewing arc right arc is i can see i can see the 2020 to 2021
rally just literally vertical and it's it's honestly looking like that uh inflection
point at the bottom when it just v-reversed straight to those highs it's looking like that
right now yeah and it shows that that is the true indicator of normies making money right like just
people that like to invest in overly speculative things If you take a look at gaming stocks like Roblox, there's a lot of gaming and automation stocks
that are starting to go on rallies, these micro rallies.
And I remember in 2020 from, I think it was like from October to December, stocks were outperforming the crap out of altcoins, outperforming the shit out of altcoins.
I remember in December when we broke out of 20K and these micro cap stocks, these tech stocks were going on vicious rallies.
were going on vicious rallies, Luna, Solana, Phantom, a few other names as well that were
trending, they were down significantly from their DeFi summer highs.
ETH was down from its DeFi summer highs up until, I think, going into Christmas or something
like that.
So there are points where a lot of the action goes over to equities and that's something
that i put on my personal profile something to the can of like i'm starting to have a bit more edge
on the stock market and equity side of things crypto is kind of in a in a weird spot right you've You've got Solana trying to rebrand in some fashion because Pump Fun is just not the same beast as it was in quarter four.
And I think the only people that are trying to promote those kind of stuff, like literal one-day pump and dumps, and they're like, oh, there's a daily runner.
I think it's just people trying to extract from other people. They buy some
shitter and they dump it on their friends or whatever. That's just not sustainable, I think.
Then you have Hyperliquid, which is probably going to need some more consolidation after
the monster rally that it had. You also have some stuff that may or may not be a threat.
You also have some stuff that may or may not be a threat.
I don't really think it's a threat, but it's Coinbase enabling margin,
like cross margin for U.S. customers and perpetual futures and stuff like that.
I think there's another American exchange.
So for majors, it's kind of looking rough.
And then even with Sui, they had huge lp hack a couple of months ago so
as far as majors go we don't really have a story maybe eth but i mean eth just follows iwm to be
honest so yeah maybe that maybe that can be a trend so we're kind of just a bit lost um with
with that yeah i i'm still in the camp that you get one big green candle and all of that goes out
the window, bro.
Literally, money will flood into this market when we have a flourishing...
Dude, crypto is like the highest risk beta asset in all risk markets, right?
So you need to have like zero uncertainty, ample liquidity, things you're doing really well, right? So you need to have like zero uncertainty, ample liquidity, things you're
doing really well, right? We're actually lucky for the first time in history, and we called this
from the bottom, well, I did, that BTC would hit all-time highs before the S&P index, and it did.
And I gave the months, May and June, happened in May. You need everything to do well for ETH and altcoins.
So all market participants can have at least like a three to six month window
that they can see in front of them where, okay,
things are actually looking pretty certain.
Liquidity is flying in.
Speculation is good.
Let me bid, right?
It's literally the highest risk beta in all risk markets.
So you need that environment for it to do well.
And that's all you need.
None of this catalysts, their rebranding, none of that matters.
It's literally just the macro conditions.
If they are good, then altcoins are going to do well.
And there's so many charts to support that.
It's not just me making that up.
Like even if you just look at ETH BDC, I've shared this chart since April 26th.
When I've been April 9th, I've shared this chart since April 26th.
And I've been April 9th. I said, people kept asking when alt season. I said, let's see how ETH BTC looks like after DXY loses 100. The key level that for the last two to three cycles,
every time we lost 100 on DXY, ETH BTC, which is basically the risk barometer of crypto,
went vertical, right? After you lose 100,
you start trending to the downside, it starts to go vertical. We literally hit below 100 on the DXY,
if you check that chart, and ETH BTC bottomed. So now DXY is trending, losing market structure to
the downside even more. And it's going to probably trend towards the 90s, if not lower.
And this chart is already waking up from the dead,
about to curl up.
And we're anticipating a BTC breakout,
which subsequently everything else will also catch a bit.
While this is like the main macro lever
between tight and loose global financial conditions,
if this keeps going down,
ETH BTC is going to flip
and money is going to pour into the space. It's just that simple. You just have to be patient. And it sucks to be
patient. But if you just look at this chart, it's literally been blowing out above 100 since 2022
because of the rampant COVID inflation. And now for the first time in three years, it's lost 100
and ETH BTC flips. It's not a coincidence. this is what i'm trying to say is you need these macro conditions to have things
flourishing in the space we've we still haven't had you know bitcoin dominance uh give any liquidity
adults the entire run it's just been going higher and higher and higher but you know that global
macro picture is starting to shift and when it it does, it doesn't just happen for three months, and then all of a sudden it flips again. No, it's like a cyclical thing that lasts many,
many months. I think it's going to last many quarters. So we'll see. I think we're in the
first innings of things actually flipping positively for the broader space and not just
BTC, which is going to help BTC as well. I think a lot of people have
misconceptions around Bitcoin dominance and what that actually means for BTC. It doesn't just go
up only the entire cycle. When money is pouring into the space, they go into old coins, but they
reverse back into BTC once that cycle actually does come to an end, which is positive for BTC
in the end because more money is coming into the space more money in stable coins it rotates to btc and then
it's positive so yeah i just think the last straw of patience it's been a long road but
you can clearly see things are shifting in the right direction
man um yeah it's uh it's something that i do want to bring up now that grant is here
on the stage guys i i know some of you requested to speak i know paulo's requested i know uh frank
you requested um i did click confirm but spaces are bringing people down i'm pretty sure spaces
is acting up today for whatever reason sometimes spaces are like this but i request again guys and
i'll bring you back up y'all know that every friday i like to bring some of you guys from the community
up on the panel but um grant let me get this straight man before before i uh before i introduce
you i hope you're doing well man thanks for requesting it's going to be a a great conversation
but uh with this um bill that was passed where people can can use their
digital assets for collateral is is that something that that that's uh some of your network is open
in doing like say using btc as collateral for real estate or ethereum any altcoins? Is that going to be a real thing?
Well, yeah, I don't know.
I can't, you know, I don't know what they're doing over there.
I know I was there in January talking to Fannie and Freddie in D.C.
about, you know, adding Bitcoin to a mortgage product.
So imagine you get a mortgage on a house, but a tiny bit of it, like you have PMI, which is principal mortgage insurance.
Imagine if 5% purchased Bitcoin, which would only change the average payment on a mortgage by 130 bucks.
It would provide liquidity for that mortgage when real estate's not liquid.
provide liquidity for that mortgage when real estate's not liquid.
And then Bill Pulte, who runs FHFA, came out this week and said that people's crypto should
count to their asset, to their liquidity position.
asset, you know, to their asset, to their liquidity position.
Like the whole SEC, all the rulings, like it's so outdated as to what people own and
don't own and the accredited investor, non-accredited.
The Trump administration is doing a great job of confronting all that from the SEC to
what Bill Pulte is doing to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
So it's very interesting.
Change is definitely coming.
And I think it's going to be a,
it's going to offer tremendous opportunities
for both the retailer,
for the retail holder,
for the consumer,
and for those that are entrepreneurial
and figure out how to create vehicles
around Bitcoin and other coins
to solve problems for money.
Hey, Grant, that wouldn't cause any issues like what happened from like 07 to 08, would it?
No, it would. Well, I mean, look, I mean, if they're not going to credit any,
I don't think they're going to credit any shit coin as a balance sheet item.
It's still going to have to be substantiated.
But if you have, you know, if somebody had three Bitcoin and that's worth 300 grand a day, they should give you credit for something.
It's worth something to someone.
Now, whether it's real collateral or not, I don't know, but
if you've got equity in your home, it's considered. If you have cash in the bank,
it's considered. The moment you do that loan, it's considered. It doesn't mean you're going
to have it when the loans do or when the loan's problematic. So I don't think it creates that.
I don't see how that creates that problem. Look, what happened in housing in 2008, 9, and 10 was, you know, that was a debt problem.
That wasn't a housing problem.
All those home prices have come back an extended beyond where they were back then.
But real estate doesn't have a problem until debt's a problem and debt's a problem.
And it's a great hearing from you, man.
I hope it doesn't happen.
I tell you what.
If the amount of, I was talking to a big bank today and I said,
because they're interested in what I'm doing with adding Bitcoin to our real estate purchases.
We're buying large apartment complexes and adding
somewhere between 15 and 25, even 50% to the purchase.
Meaning if something's 100, we're adding $50 a Bitcoin.
If the real estate's 100 and it's still cash flows and we're still at or below replacement
costs, they're like, well, have know, have you looked at what this would
have done since 19, you know, since 2020?
I said, well, you wouldn't have $3 trillion worth of debt problems in this country on
commercial loans.
If you'd have done this on every office building, the Bitcoin would have bailed out the office
building.
Right now, right now, the pension funds and the institutions and the banks are dependent upon this one asset being in the right place at the right time when the loan comes due.
And that's not always the case.
So if you fuse these two assets together, one's liquid, one's not, one cash flows, one doesn't, one's got a real utility, the other one, you know, I'm sure you guys can make a case for having a utility, but you don't live in Bitcoin or you don't office in it.
If you fuse those two together, it would solve some inherent problems with the real estate when the debt comes due.
Man, thank you for that. We do have some people that uh requested to speak uh yeah hey uh great
to thanks for having me up here i'm here with my kids but dude i uh i come from mortgage i'm not
grant cardone let's be clear but um yeah the reason why it's you know bitcoin being so whenever
you're doing a mortgage application i'll just talk about a regular average everyday homeowner
not the monsters like grant cardone right right? Who buy a lot of valuation
on properties, hundreds of billions of dollars worth of property. But the average homeowner
who's looking to buy a house, one of the questions that the lender is going to ask you is,
what are your assets? And it's a big deal. It is a big deal that the government is saying, hey,
like your Bitcoin can be added to that section of your mortgage application, which strengthens the application.
And when that loan is getting sold off in the secondary market and these lenders are
offloading that paper, that borrower is going to exhibit a strength that other borrowers may or
may not, based on how much Bitcoin is on the asset side of that application. So it's a really big deal for Bitcoiners and just another incentive
for those who are going to be applying for mortgages to list that Bitcoin
on the asset side of that application, which reduces risk, by the way.
It's reducing risk for the lender so they can get better terms too.
Eventually, when this thing is seen correctly 10 years from now, if not sooner,
you're going to get lower rates because you have Bitcoin on that asset side. You're going to get better terms because
you have Bitcoin on that asset side. And it's a time thing, in my opinion. Hey, guys. So with
all this going on, I want to get some of your thoughts right. This is Trump's second term,
and it's the first time since the inauguration where the stock market is about a rage into price discovery.
And we know from Trump's first term, when the S&P started going crazy, when the QQQ started going crazy in February of 2019, it just went up only for like six months.
No, no, no, no, no breaks at all. Just full pedal to the metal. How are you guys feeling, man,
about that? Grant or Hanok, either one of you, or anyone on the panel, really. I think this is
going to be quite an interesting summer. The summers over the last few years have had a stigma
where there's a lull, where people should go on vacation when if we just take
a look at how the first four months of the year happened what happened over the last uh uh i'm
getting my words all confused guys i'm sorry but if we take a look at the price actions from the
first four months of the year it was quite lackluster and it's only now where things are starting to be quite interesting. We've had the first major IPO since, I would say, since the COVID era that has performed like a 1990s stock, like an internet stock.
And I think what Besant said back in february guys that within six months you're
going to start seeing the trump economic boom we're starting to see traces of that and it's been
about four months since beset said that how are you guys feeling about uh the markets in general
outside of um you know what's going on in real estate i'll be quick uh We're about to head into a risk on climate, right? Quantitative easing, rate cuts, more printing. So I'm bullish on everything, all assets. They're going to inflate and go up. So that's kind of my thought. Very simple.
We got other people up here on the panel. Frankie's been requesting. Frankie, what's up, man?
I'll pass it over to you first.
Yo, what's up, man?
I mean, yeah, I'm pretty bullish.
You know, I think we maybe have maybe a couple more months of maybe not the most exciting price action.
But everything to me seems to be lining up quite well.
well. I'm happy to see that there's a US-China deal. I think that's going to, you know, one big
I'm happy to see that there's a U.S.-China deal.
thing that I think is really holding crypto back is that, you know, this tariff uncertainty is
really kind of preventing the business cycle from getting started. And I think that once businesses
know what tariff environment they're heading into, they'll be able to plan their, you know,
to execute on their growth initiatives or even just plan one.
And, you know, we'll see more hiring.
We'll see, you know, more jobs for people, more business, and subsequently more, you know, more investing, more speculating,
and just create a better environment for risk assets, really.
So, and then I think maybe that'll give, you know, I think cuts in September are pretty much the, you know, what we're looking at here, but I'm not even so much worried about
the cuts as I am in end of QT, because I think there's a strong connection between, um, the
balance sheet and ETH balance sheet and alts or Fed net liquidity, you know, more specifically,
but, um, you know, Fed balance sheet, basically. I did see that they're, that they're doing
something with the SLR,
so that'll probably go through, right? And I was listening to Andreas Steno over at Steno Research,
and he says that, you know, doing the SLR exemptions, which is basically just allows
banks to buy more bonds, essentially, that should equal what he said was at least a few months of peak COVID QE, which, you know, is good, right?
But I could see this thing going into 2026, man, I mean, easily.
Like, maybe even like, you know, as maybe even the later part of 26, you know, who knows?
Because, you know, Trump's going to put a fucking Uber dove in there.
And, you know, I'm wondering, like, is the market, how long until the market starts taking their cue from this new chair appointee and they stop taking it from Powell?
Is that, you know, is that nine months out from, you know, the date that he takes, that it takes effect?
Is it six months out, three months out?
But, you know, for me, for me, ultimately, the goal, I think the I think the end result is it's going to be higher regardless.
So I'm happy to I'm happy to wait.
Yeah, I think this is very similar to 1997.
In 97, we had a huge crash in the tech stocks.
And then over the next two and a half years after that crash,
I think the indices put in like a 200% move from then. Now, I'm not saying that, you know,
the S&P is going to go to like 12,000 within the next two years,
but I do think something like pushing towards 9,000,
perhaps in Q4 of next year, something like that.
I think that's possible.
I really do.
Close to 9,000 on the S&P going into midterms.
I know that seems crazy. I know that seems crazy and all that stuff.
But people are really not paying attention to the equity markets right now and the micro bull run that's starting within automation and robotics.
Everyone wants exposure to AI, but there's more stuff than just NVIDIA.
Everyone wants exposure to AI, but there's more stuff than just NVIDIA.
And when you start to see things like the ARK Innovation ETF, where Kathy Wood is actually making money hand over fist, altcoins usually get primed up for a huge move.
But they often happen really quick.
And the drawdowns for things like others BTC to bottom out or even ETH BTC to start moving,
it takes a long time.
It took ETH BTC a little over three years. After its January 2018 or December 2017 peak,
it took ETH BTC three years for it to start making an aggressive move.
So ETH BTC more or less started breaking
down um right after the merge in september of 2022 so the three-year anniversary of the merge
would be in september of 2025 qt is expected to end uh next quarter or early Q4. So sometimes history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
Maybe that's like the last thing that happens within a four-year cycle, and then markets
just start behaving irrationally because the four-year cycle is kind of starting to break,
in my opinion.
in my opinion. We saw that when Bitcoin made an all-time high before the halving.
We saw that when Bitcoin made an all-time high before the halving.
And of course, the crazy price action that happened in Q4 of last year. And usually,
we don't see that kind of price action until the post-halving year. And Q1 of the post-halving
year is usually bullish, and it wasn't bullish at all. So, you know, this four-year cycle thing, yes, there are some things that do rhyme, right, like seasonality from time to time.
But they're starting to shift.
They're really starting to shift.
And the ending of QT is really what we're waiting for, to be honest.
I think that's going to be a hell of a lot more bullish than any rate cuts that
Powell is going to do. The rate cuts are going to be bullish when the new Fed appointed chair
from Trump, when he or she gets in. That's going to be insane. That's going to lead to the blow-off
top, the mother of all blow-off tops. But I think people get this notion where after a blow off top, things just depress for a very long period of time.
But when everything's going to a downtrend in a Trump administration, Trump wants to rip off the Band-Aid as quickly as possible.
He is not someone that, at least in my opinion, would be in a position where markets are just down only quarter after quarter after quarter.
It's usually just like eight to 10 weeks of pure pain as quickly as possible, right?
As he said it back in March, right, as the S&P was going down only along with the QQQ,
he said the markets right now are a sick patient patient the patient is undergoing surgery or something like
that that that that that was a that was a fire clip when it was going viral frankie what's up
man yeah i just wanted to say too about the four-year cycles um i'll pin i'll pin up a few
charts that i think are relevant um i mean you're right and like here's the thing too is people like
people get the wrong idea about the cycles i think think. They think that it's like the Bitcoin cycle, or maybe it's like the presidential cycle.
All those things are important.
And the increased scarcity in Bitcoin is definitely a part of what makes it desirable.
But really, what drives these cycles is debt refinancing.
There's a central bank debt refi cycle.
And the reality is we just haven't seen the central banks really get super active yet.
I mean, we have all over the world except for the Fed. And that's kind of the big one. Right.
And you can see the second chart. You can see the growth of Fed liquidity and where we were in 2021
and where we are now. We're in the hour and the ass opposite end of where we were in 2021 so um and
that's you know part part of that is qt yeah i mean they're they're running assets off the balance
sheet they're reducing liquidity there and that's that's going to have an impact um just and going
back to your point about how 2023 was so unseasonal i mean that was you know that and this is what i
always tell people too is they say oh that was the bull run and Trump pump was euphoria.
I'm like, no, I don't believe that.
Because really what was happening in late 2023 was Janet Yellen injecting $9 trillion of hidden stimulus into the economy via short-term debt.
You know, what they've started to call Yellenomics, which, honestly, was really had no choice but to do as well.
You know, they're issuing a lot of short-term debt and these banks are snapping it up.
And that's, you know, that's the injection of liquidity.
You can see it right there.
You can see right halfway through 2023, in comes, or rather $6 trillion of hidden stimulus
or a hidden, you know, a cross-border cap calls, not QEQE.
So that to me wasn't the bull run.
That's not the fundamental thing that drives
these cycles, this short-term debt kind of injection that we saw. Fundamentally, that's
not what we're actually waiting for. What we're waiting for still has to happen.
And then to your point too about QT, this third chart, I'll point out, this is from Ben Cohen,
and this yellow line shows you the point at which the fed ended qt last
cycle this is 2021 um and that shows you uh bitcoin dominance and or rather i think this is 2020 um
bitcoin dominance peaked when the fed ended qt and then going you know going back and looking at
the fed net liquidity you know connection that the that the more fed net liquidity the higher
all coins and eth go you know i think there's a strong argument to be made that some sort of fed impetus
is what we're waiting the the impetus is is is a fed pivot in some in some regard whether it's qe
whether it's rate cuts whether it's you know doing some sort of of of you know lending mechanism or
whatever it is you know however they want to label it I'm sure we won't see headline QE come back. You know, Powell said that not until rates are at or
below zero. We're at four and a half. So like, we're obviously a long way away from that. But,
you know, this SLR exemption is basically another way they'll do it. Or, you know,
the banks buying up all the short term debt is another way they'll do it. So, you know,
just just to sum it up, you know, really, you know, these these four year, four and a halfa-half, five-year cycles, they're driven by, you know, about a four-and-a-half-year debt maturity wall.
And so that's, you know, that's what drives markets, and that's got sort of wonkish lately.
And then the last chart is just for reference.
Frankie, quick question.
I mean, would what we're seeing today be connected to what happened with COVID, right?
Like printing that much, cutting those rates that quick.
Isn't the reason why it's such an elongated cycle, you know,
aftermath of what happened there?
I think so.
I mean, I think that's one of the reasons why the Fed has stayed higher for longer
is all the inflation that we saw from essentially, I mean,
how much money did we print?
Like 30% of the world's money supply we printed in a matter of months
or whatever it was um so yeah i mean i think that's i think that's definitely a reason
why things have stayed tighter for longer and i heard someone yesterday make an argument that
the fed didn't mess up by cutting rage too soon they messed up by hiking rage too soon
and that they should have uh they should let further into – I forget when they cut.
I really wasn't paying attention to markets back then.
But the argument was that they started hiking too soon, that they should have let it run hotter,
which I'm not sure exactly how that would have helped, but maybe someone else can speak to that.
But, yeah, no, I definitely think that COVID inflation plays a big part into why this is kind of –
this cycle is kind of dragging its feet.
Yeah, Papal started cutting in September of last year,
and I believe he hiked pretty much like,
I think he hiked a couple of days before Luna went to zero.
I am pretty sure that's exactly how it happened.
QT ended the exact day that luna peaked and when pow hiked for the first time i think in may of 22 within like 48 hours luna started going to zero so i mean you could
argue all of crypto was on its way to zero thereafter right yeah yeah that that ftt chart man like
anytime there's there's some news of ftx might be coming back or whatever ftt has those like
weird scam pumps man i'm not even sure where people buy that token but that was a completely
different era in crypto i sort of think that we're in post.com recovery in crypto i think we're like i think
we're like in 09 probably 2010 where it's like the aftermath of the uh of the echo bubble in tech
because tech had that huge bubble in 99 and 2000 um got destroyed uh for multiple years had a small small pump i think in 07 of extremely small pump
and then when the economy got destroyed um it took like a year or so for tech to slowly start
to come back but i mean you take a look at art the art the arc etf right that's been in limbo
along with the iwm for four years um and now
that markets are a lot more efficient they move a lot quicker and people have access to these markets
i just don't think we're going to be in this like lost decade uh for small caps that people have
been yapping on about i mean guys we saw circle going from five bill market cap all the way to like 60 plus in two weeks.
That is not something that you see in a lost decade, or at least I don't think so, man.
Max, they're in the stablecoin business, right?
Yeah, this isn't Max, by the way, brother.
Oh, my bad. Dude dude i'm so sorry man
i don't know why i assumed you were yeah yeah nah man yeah i'm not even sure the last time max was
on these spaces i think i apologize i think i'm behind yeah it's all good man it's all good yeah
this is this is wabi i usually host the spaces but um i think the last time Max was on a space, I couldn't even tell you, man.
I forgot.
I guess my question, Robbie, is that isn't Circle and the growth you're seeing a function of what is expected to come with stables?
Yeah, stablecoins.
Okay, yeah.
Yeah, and I think that the total addressable market for stablecoins is a hell of a lot bigger than people think.
And like, yeah, I understand Circle went through a mini blow off.
But me personally, I'm seeing this opportunity to even have the opportunity to have Circle is like buying Amazon at the lows in 2009 and 2010. Like people are so hyper fixated on I want the next 20x,
I want the next 30x. But what people don't understand is like, so many people have gains
on paper, but they don't realize them. Like if you take a look at altcoins, like, oh, I'm up 5 mil
on a meme coin or an altcoin, try extracting that out. You're going to destroy the chart. You're
going to send it to zero, and you're probably only going to be able to take out 2 mil out of that 5
mil. It's not the same as the equity markets. It's really not. And you want to compound the gains
that you get in altcoins to accumulate either you know equity in the stock market or or
bitcoin right so you know when you take a look at something like circle they are quite literally the
amazon um for this market without stable coins you're not going to have defy you're not going
to have uh all coins you guys remember when svb when silicon valley bank when silvergate bank um all imploded
and then stable coins had that dpeg and usdc went to like 80 cents and then tether went to like
88 or 90 cents you guys remember that every coin every crypto contagion it's always happened the
deep end yeah yeah yeah man and you know without stable coins
like you have no alts you have no other market so you know when you take a look at something like
circle i understand the market cap may be too high right for some people in crypto but you have to understand like an asset that's worth like 30 bill market cap 50 bill
market cap um in in the equity market it's it's not some all coin it's not and
i don't want to go too much of a man. But we got some other people up here. We got Prometheus.
We have Mr. NFT.
I'll pass it over to Prometheus because he has his hand up.
But before I do that, Donnie Grant, is there anything else that you guys want to say from the conversation?
I'll pass it over to Prometheus.
What's up, man? Yo, bro. What's bro what's up man how you been how's your day been
bro i'm alive dude love to see you man yeah i'm alive that's yes sir that's that's that's what's
uh to to be uh to be grateful for bro yeah i'm alive especially with these uh how these weekly
charts are looking on ethan btc right now at least the three-day charts man the e3 day chart
has back to back to back doji candles it is like price action is anemic right now uh and if you
are burning your retinas out at the screen like I've been, it's just been horrific, horrific price action.
Almost no signal in the lower time frame.
Choppy, choppy, choppy mess.
But, dude, how bullish is it for base that Brian Armstrong is relentlessly tweeting on-chain?
He is literally every day just tweeting out on chain, on chain, on chain.
You just got to think that there is going to be some massive integration with base and Coinbase here pretty soon.
They have their foot on the gas when it comes to opening up a door for retail, really.
door really for retail really um now with what like they offer futures uh they're going to
probably offer crypto options here soon with their acquisition of darabit um i mean it's
nutty what coinbase is doing man and uh you love to see it though you love to see it, though. You love to see it. I love what Frankie had to say, man.
A lot of what he was talking about in regards to the broader macro cycles.
I know a lot of people right now are...
I put out a video on the BB YouTube channel earlier today
in regards to altcoins and the relationship to Bitcoin, man. And all I got to say for people is you just just wait till Bitcoin gives you confirmation of
price discovery. And then go get you know, go get your all coins, go fill your bags, go for your
spot big spot bags, because you're not missing out. Right? You know, the whole market psychology piece of following in here in anticipation of
new all-time highs you know from a risk to you know risk reward perspective you could eat another
60 70 percent downside in all coins if we do you know pull back even to like 102 like god forbid
we pull back to 90s um i'm just kind of remaining cautiously optimistic.
I'm waiting. I'm still heavy in cash, heavy on stables and waiting to really go in and deploy
my capital into altcoins right now, man. Total three has been nothing but a bait chart for so many people, you know, people just desperately wanting that,
you know, that froth to ensue. Just let Bitcoin give you the green light, man. Just let it give
you the green light and then pull the trigger, you know, find where the hot nerds are, find where
the hot alts are. And just like what we saw in Novembermber of last year right around the inauguration man
um or not the inauguration right around um when trump won his candidacy it's
like you were before bitcoin to break out into all-time highs then total three had just broke its descending trend line and then put in 180% face ripper to
the upside and you would have missed out on nothing nothing um so man I'm just kind of
sitting back right now and I see so much yap on the timeline I've just been stepping away from
the timeline truthfully speaking um and I'm just letting the markets from the timeline, truthfully speaking.
And I'm just letting the markets play out, man.
If they want to resolve to the downside, sweet.
Like my all-coin shorts will cook.
And if their market resolves the upside, I close my shorts and I got plenty to look to deploy into some of the stronger names.
One of them, you know, that I've been accusing.
It really does not matter. Like, if you look in November last year, dude, like, chain link.
I think you're cutting off, man.
Put in the 200% move.
Yeah, he was cooking, but he's cutting out. He melted face.
You had coins. Hey, my man man you're cutting out brother
yeah it's he's uh he's cutting off he's cutting off i think it's just spaces um in general to be
honest that are are acting up.
We had that issue earlier in the space.
I tried bringing some people up that were requesting,
and then it would just knock them back down and bring them back up.
Dude, Bobby, I'm out at the hog farm.
That's why, bro.
Oh, okay, okay.
Yeah, you're good now, man.
You're okay now if you want to say something.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm out in the woods, bro.
Study the lean hogs.
Study lean hogs.
You know...
Is Agra there with you?
Oh, okay. Okay.
Well, guys, anyone here on the panel want to bring up anything else before I wrap up?
I think it's been a pretty constructive stream over the last hour.
Donnie, Grant, Frankie.
You're cutting off again, man.
Yeah, you're cutting off again, man. Yeah, you're cutting off again, man.
But nonetheless, I want to thank Donnie.
I want to thank Grant, Prometheus, Hanok, and Frankie for coming on up here, talking shop with me.
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everyone follow the speakers up here follow donnie follow hanok follow grant follow frankie
everyone up here that came up to speak go ahead and follow them guys, I want to wish you all safe weekends, space the recorder as always
before I sign off, I want to give a shout out to my Lord and Savior Jesus Christ for allowing me
another day of health to talk markets with you all, I truly don't take any of this for granted
you know, and I can be going through, I can be going through it. I can be going through it.
But Jesus, he helps me with everything, man.
I cast my burdens onto him.
I cast my burdens onto him.
And through his grace, I'm able to go through the trials and tribulations that this life throws at us, right?
Life is not easy. And I've been blessed enough to meet some extraordinary men like Tucker,
like Max, and like Tommy that make this life a little bit more easier.
And of course, you guys that always show your love and support,
whether it's to the brand, whether it's to myself,
whether it's to Max, whether it's Tucker,
I appreciate each and every single one of you.
And God bless you all
honestly truly you guys um keep the lights on here because of bitcoin and i would encourage other
other media platforms um to be a bit more grateful because one day people um you know are are throwing
flowers to you and you know giving you all these these praise. And then the next day you just disappear off the map.
So nothing lasts forever.
But in the time that, you know, I do have on here,
I want to show my gratitude with each and every space.
You guys know how I end these streams all the time.
So thank you all so much.
Have a blessed weekend.
I'll see you guys on Monday.
Take care.
And, of course, be safe out there with uh leverage and
all that good stuff right you never know what the weekend is going to give you here in these markets
so that being said y'all have a good fantastic rest of your friday or saturday depending on where
you are and um yeah we'll see you all uh on monday bright and early at 11 a.m. EST for Market Check.
And then later on that day in the afternoon for Market Talk with myself and the rest of the panel, guys.
So have a blessed weekend.
Bye-bye.
Take care. You got the power Oh, yeah. you Oh my God. If you talk, you gotta talk.
You know the man you've ever played.
You seem to know just what it takes.
You're right.
It's in the blood.
It's in the will. It's in the mighty end of the field. Oh You get the touch.
You get the power.
We'll have to lose.
Ah, no.
You get the power.
You get the motion. You know that one day you get the touch. You get the touch. I'm just gonna get a little more shot.
You know that when things get too tough, you get the touch.
You know that when things get too tough, you get the touch. You know that when things get too tough, you know that when things get too tough. Oh Yes
Yeah I still got the sound. Fuck it. I still got the sound. I still got the sound.
I still got the sound.
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I still got the sound.
I still got the sound.
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I still got the sound. I still got the sound. I still got the sound. I still got the sound. I still got the sound. I still got the sound. I still got the sound. I still got the sound. I still got the sound. I still got the sound. I still got the sound. I still got the sound. I still got the sound. I still got the sound. I still got the sound. I still got the sound. I still got the sound. I still got the sound. I still got the sound. I still got the sound. I still got the sound. I still got the sound. I still got the sound. I still got the sound. I still got the sound. I still got the sound. I still got the sound. I still got the sound. I still got the sound. I still got the sound. I still got the sound. I still got the sound. I still got the sound. I still got the sound. .
