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Market Talk- THE BOTTOM IS IN! 110k next for BTC!?
Recorded: June 23, 2025 Duration: 1:49:40Space Recording
Short Summary
In a lively discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored the recent volatility in the market, highlighting Circle Stock's impressive growth, the potential for significant fundraising through upcoming crypto IPOs, and the bullish sentiment surrounding Bitcoin's price movements. The conversation also touched on strategic partnerships and the implications of changing monetary policies on market trends.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Oh
And nothing gets me now. You got it tough.
I see my jumps.
And I know.
Baby, jump time.
You got to roll with the punches. I can't get my balls.
I can't just see the same. Oh, oh,. My turn.
My turn.
My turn.
Oh, my turn.
Who said that?
How you doing?
You say you don't know. Yeah, who's sitting back? Baby, how you getting in?
You say you don't know You won't know
You don't know
Can't you see I'm saying
I'm gonna rock my back
And if you're like, you're not seeing
I'm gonna rock my back
Can't you see
Can't you see what I'm saying can't just see what I'm doing.
I don't know what's the case.
I don't know what's the case.
I don't know what's the case.
I don't know what's the case.
I don't know what's the case.
I don't know what's the case.
I don't know what's the case.
I don't know what's the case.
I don't know what's the case.
I don't know what's the case. I don't know what's the case. So Welcome to the show.γ―γγθ¦γ¦γγγγγγΌγγγγγ
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γ what is going on guys welcome back to market talk geez what an insane weekend ladies and gentlemen gentlemen. What a volatile weekend.
Man, I'm going to go ahead and open up with something that I've been discussing at the opening of these shows over the last two weeks.
But Circle Stock, once again, man, hit all-time highs.
I think we opened up at close to $300 a share.
We mentioned it here on this show on its first day.
I think opening price was $85.
Closed the day at just under $100.
So that is a clean 3X with size liquid in the equity markets.
And as we've been discussing on the show, the equity markets are going to offer many,
many, many opportunities that are going to shock people.
We have other crypto based companies that are going to IPO later this year.
I think Matt was on the show and he mentioned a company called 21 Capital that Adam Back also has staken.
Tether also has staken. And it's going to be pretty interesting, man. It really is. And it's strange. You've been in crypto for about seven years now, seven, seven and a half years, something like that. It's late 2017. And I never expected to pay so much attention to the equity markets at any point, really.
at any point really but uh in 2022 you know that kind of had to change we had to pay attention
to macro and things like that i'm sure some of you guys had to also pivot during that year
um that was a very very turbulent year honestly looking back on it now but um yeah man the price
action that circle has had and even um hoodstock also hit an all-time high at the opening bell.
You're going to have to excuse me.
I'm still kind of recovering from this little cough here.
But it's going to be a great time, is what I'm saying.
Second half of the year.
The summer, gosh, I really want to see Bitcoin above $105,
weekly close above $110 to really get the horses moving. But I think at the very least,
guys, short term, just given the velocity of the sell pressure that we had over the last
couple of days, that sell pressure that we had from Wednesday until late Saturday or early Sunday,
that sell pressure that we had from Wednesday until late Saturday or early Sunday,
depending on where you are in the world.
It's very similar to crashes that we had back in April and in March from earlier of this year.
And we've seen the bounces that occur after the fact.
And depending on which altcoins you have, we are seeing somewhat of a relief bounce.
But potential for a greater
relief bounce if we actually do see the s&p going to price discovery which if you're just taking a
look at the price action that stocks like circle have had circle um just stealing the show hood
and even coin stock um hits a fresh local high after its April bottom.
I think Coinstock hit like 320 per share at the opening bell, which is a fresh local high.
At some point, you're just going to see everything melt up in the opening markets,
and it's just going to drag the S&P more and more and more to elevated levels.
more and more and more to elevated levels but I did see someone mention a triple top which would
be quite the big bull trap but of course war is not always the best subject to talk to talk about
but when it comes to things like wars when it comes to things like tariffs, whenever you have such peak
mindshare occur and markets just start to brush it off, unless full-scale war happens,
then most of this is just priced in already as ridiculous as that sounds.
But we've seen the way these markets react to headlines like this back
all the way since 2015 when Obama was just nuking Syria and Libya left and right.
But nonetheless, guys, I'm here joined by Donnie.
I think we're going to have chill here as well later on in the show.
We're just going to talk more about the local price action.
I think that would be uh fantastic
we're seeing great balances on things like hype um hype bottomed out cleanly at 31 dollars in change
uh far coin also bottomed out right at its coinbase listing at 83 82 cents um other notable Listing at $0.83.82. Other notable alts, of course.
I'm a huge fan of Ray.
We also see virtuals with a pretty nice bounce as well.
And it's going to be a great show, guys.
Something that's pretty funny is at the opening bell today at the New York Stock Exchange, when the bell was rung, we had a pudgy penguin right next to the individual that rung the bell, which is something else.
A pudgy penguin, like someone literally dressed up as a pudgy penguin in a pudgy penguin costume ringing the bell.
That is something else.
But plenty of crypto IPOs are likely to happen later on in the year.
But short term, I'd like to see personally,
just to get volatility out of both sides,
one more test at the range highs.
But I want to welcome you all.
Thank you all so much for coming into today's stream.
Welcome back to Market Talk brought to you by because bitcoin i'm your host lobby 45 minutes
to an hour we're gonna go ahead and uh talk about markets i'm here joined by donnie here joined by
chill thank you for tuning in whether you're here live in the audience or you're listening to the
recording it's going to be a fantastic show we're gonna we're gonna go ahead and talk about
exclusive content exclusive talks that you'll find nowhere else on any other platform but let's go
ahead and get this emergency meeting underway but before we do that guys before we provide you with
today's market update you guys can go ahead and show some love to the space.
You might be wondering, man, how can I do my part and show some love to the space to the show that I tune in on a daily or a weekly basis?
You know, I understand sometimes people don't listen to our shows every day.
Sometimes they might only catch one or two streams per week.
But if you're asking, how do I show some love to a show that I've tuned in consistently or from time to time?
Well, I've got an answer for you guys.
If you guys go ahead and open up, the Spaces tab should be at the bottom of your app.
And once you do that, you'll see our awesome profile pictures.
And right up above,
you'll see a little link that says
x.com slash I slash spaces.
You guys can go ahead,
click that link,
smash up the like button.
If you're bullish
and want to see higher prices,
smash that like button.
If you want to see some volatility,
just basic volatility,
even if we just crab around
from the bottom of the range to the top of the range.
Smash that like button.
If you love this market, hit that repost button.
Smash that repost button, guys, as it does a number of things.
Helps bring more eyes and ears to the brand.
Helps bring more awareness to the show.
Gets more people in here.
Gets the show live and popping.
And, of course, I'd be very much appreciative.
And it only takes a couple of seconds of your time it's very effortless so anyways man donnie i'm gonna pass it over to you man what's going on it seems like we called the bottom once again
in real time on a weekend where where uh doom was just going around man and
if the summertime is often filled with very minimal opportunities and the market presents itself with
at the very least a massive bounce you know it's time to put our opinions out there man so
brother how are you feeling, man?
Hey, bro. Thanks for having me back. Shout out to you, man, by the way,
bro. You were talking about 98K on
Friday, which was
a pretty clean call, brother.
Yeah, it was a good one, man.
It's nice to see it play out. It's good also
to have expected it before
it happens, just so you don't get caught
in an emotional state when it
comes, right? Because then you'll end up doing stupid stuff that you shouldn't be doing right but the reason
why i flipped just a little bit locally uh to go lower was um you know we had that rally actually
on the bitcoin chart i just shared um yesterday's post for you guys to see those two charts but
um yesterday's post for you guys to see those two charts but we had we had the initial rally which
you know took us from 74k all the way to 112k and then things got pretty exciting at the top
you know we started seeing uh big pushes on x of people leverage longing the highs
um and you know calling for higher targets and stuff which which they are coming. It's just that when it gets that frothy
after being an up-only rally,
typically those people that enter at the highs
need to get wiped out before you resume higher.
It just doesn't make sense for them
to have such an easy trade
after the whole point of that move
was to price them out.
So we're expecting a technical pullback.
I initially thought that just taking the
local low of 100.4 would be enough. And it seemed so at the start, right? We took it and we V
recovered all the way back up to like 110 or whatever that first rally is. What is it? 110?
Yep. And then we came back down and we potentially were setting up for another similar
sort of recovery, maybe not a V-reversal right away, but we rallied all the way up to 109k.
And then right there is where we got the war escalation, right? So that's what kind of started
to sour the risk appetite, which ended up pushing price down, not respecting any of the local demand zones below.
And you have to adapt to that.
So there was a new setup in play,
which basically I've showed on that chart
that I just shared in the Ness, the first main one,
comparing it to the 2024 range that we had.
Obviously, the bottom chart's a weekly chart
and the top chart is a daily chart.
The timeframes are different,
but the structure on the chart is honestly as close to identical as you can get something like this to play out.
All the key levels, all of the sentiment, the context, everything. It's literally identical
to me, right? So it made a lot of sense for something similar to play out here to expect
a wick low near that key level on the chart, which is marked in blue, which to me,
if you lose that, the whole structure on this chart shifts.
So because I'm macro bullish on a whole bunch
of other things in the short term,
rather than Q4 onwards, which that could play out,
it's just not my main scenario.
There's too many things being signed off
in the coming weeks that are insanely bullish for the
market that the market will get ahead of right away. So anyway, yeah, was expecting the drop.
And we needed a strong buyback at this level to kind of give us the hint that the low could be in
at this point. It's very similar to that 49k wick we had in 2024, right? You have to have
a fear climax on these wicks to the downside, where it puts people in this emotional state
to where if it gets bought back up aggressively, they can't accept that the price is rallying away
from where they sold. So you end up setting up for a nice disbelief sort of rally
as price starts to build this accumulative structure
and starts to break to the all-time highs.
So we actually got that, right?
We had further escalations of war.
The sentiment got very bearish.
People were very emotional calling for lower.
It's literally the exact same as that
capitulation wick at 49K. That was also just as scary. And today's, actually yesterday's daily
close for me to start building the case that that could potentially be the low was to just close
above the prior low at 100.4. We got the daily close and the weekly close above that.
And what we left above that zone
or above that close is basically above 102.8,
you have literally only liquidity all the way up to 100.4.
Sorry, yeah, 104.5, my bad.
And price is obviously just chewing through all of that liquidity.
So you're going to get a strong buyback similar to that 49K wick
and the massive buyback, which tells you that the whole point
of this move was to actually fill buys, right?
Whoever pushes the market in these directions,
they're filling buys while retail is capitulating and selling low.
The only weird thing about this low that we had is again, we front ran the demand.
But I'm seeing this to be quite a common theme through the Bitcoin chart. Now, I haven't come to a conclusion why, but it does kind of make sense if you're just drawing like, you know,
blue rectangles like me on these obvious demand zones that they're getting front run by market makers,
whales, whatever. So I'm not actually looking at it from a bearish standpoint to that we need to
go and fill that demand zone, especially with how much of a buyback we've had. So let's see if price
can get above this liquidity point at 104.5
and see if we can put in some sort of higher low
at one of these demand zones below us around 102.5
and then we can actually start building the case that the low is in.
But yeah, it's looking really good.
The main setup on this chart that you need to take into consideration
similar to that 2024
range is that every single high that we had from 112k was a lower high and you're just you've built
so much liquidity above that this chart is just destined to break to a new high right you never
took them on the way down you kept putting in lower highs kept putting in lower highs people
just kept slowly capitulating more and more, flipping short, flipping short, building crazy amounts
of liquidity above. So the chart is set up to break out similarly to that 2024 range. And yeah,
I guess we're seeing it now. I don't see how after today's news, you can have a greater climax in terms of fear for price to put in a lower low right obviously
we'll watch all the low time frames and stuff and see the updates but when you have that much of an
emotional gap from the wick low to where we are now it just feels like price is not going to give
you that entry anymore so we'll see how it develops. Nothing like literally, absolutely. People think
like I'm some sort of permable, right? Which is not true. I will literally stay, quote unquote,
permabullish as long as I think the cycle top is not in, which it's nowhere near in, in my view.
So I'm constantly looking for bottoms, reversal patterns, all this kind of stuff, continuation,
because the cycle top is not in, right? Literally, altcoins haven't even moved.
Bitcoin dominance is at 66%.
DXY has just started to break down
from a macro key level on the chart,
which is going to break down even further.
The policymakers are signing bills
that are unlocking trillions of liquidity.
How am I going to flip bearish?
Even if I'm flipping locally bearish,
I'm still maximum bullish in the long-term
picture. Because all of this stuff is going to be wiped out in one weekly or monthly candle when
they do actually let it rip. So there's no point getting super doomish over these drops. You're
literally looking at the bigger picture. Okay, let me get past this noise. Let me get past this
hurdle. It's eventually coming and it's close. So it's not that I'm permabullish because when the time comes to flip bearish,
I will be the one to flip bearish.
But the setup is just so good.
It remains the same.
Like this conflict that happened,
it still doesn't change all of that stuff I just mentioned.
They're still going to push stablecoins.
They're still going to attract global capital.
They're still trying to run their debt to GDP ratio
to 6.6% or whatever to outpace their debt.
They need massive stimulus to have that kind of growth.
They're pushing AI.
So they just started the strategic Bitcoin reserve.
All this kind of stuff.
It's still going to play out.
So that's why I remain bullish.
It's nothing to do with how it's looking locally or daily or all this kind of stuff.
I don't really care about that.
So yeah, it's nice to get past another hurdle.
I think when you do break the high this time,
again, you've built so much liquidity above
that when they do squeeze this thing,
you're not going to triple top at this high.
You're literally going to smash straight through
and go to 120K plus and get weekly, monthly closes up there.
If you do start squeezing that liquidity. mash straight through and go to 120k plus and get weekly monthly closes up there, right?
If you do get if you do start squeezing that liquidity, they don't they don't set up the chart in a way like this to just go and take that liquidity and roll over when the macro picture is,
you know, pointing in the direction that I'm saying. So hopefully we can reverse this chart
sooner rather than later. I don't know if you're going to need a third tap right now. You've got
obviously 100.4, the 98.5k wick that we had.
You could actually just bolt straight up out of here.
The key level on the chart for the super sharp reversal would be 106.5.
If you get above there, it's just 106.5, 109, 110, 111, and 112, right?
All key liquidity points on the chart, which if you start triggering those points on the chart,
you're just going to squeeze, right?
There's no stopping that rally.
But yeah, it's looking super good.
Just need to see a little bit more.
I'm pretty sure we'll get the answer this week
of if this chart is going to break to the all-time highs.
But yeah, I'm kind of thinking for a timeframe in my head,
if this starts to play out and confirm, July all the way through August, potentially even some of September should be upside, right? I don't see this rally stopping before, you know, August, for example, I don't think you're just going to pump for four weeks in July and then you top.
four weeks in July, and then you top.
But we'll see kind of the speed of the rally,
how high it goes, things like that.
Pretty hard to predict right now.
Need to see a little bit more.
But yeah, things are looking good, man.
And it's good to see that capitulation week
and the buyback.
So, yeah.
Is it hard, though?
Sorry?
Well, your mic is a bit low, brother.
Oh, is it? A lot better. Is that better better? Yeah a lot better. What's going on man?
Well, how's it going?
How's it going?
I was bullshitting about this job
A lot of people thought it was BS I
Think it was BS. I think it was 112, 109.
I started shorting at 112.
Shorted again at 109.
And now it's
starting to look pretty good.
I hit my altcoin targets. I think
roughly I had about 2100 as my
target. 2144 to be exact.
Ran a little bit lower than that. No biggie.
I think 2126. and then solana's
right on trend which was 125 so i'm you know i'm looking for some kind of reverse out here
i didn't hit my bitcoin targets which is unfortunate because i was wanting low 90s
with that process but obviously they gave us high 90s and now I'm kind of in the camp that if markets are gonna
move back up it's gonna be it's got to be from here if that's that's pretty
much the only way this is gonna really happen so I'm just kind of watching
things develop I remember the World War World War two World War three sorry
conversations the past it's absolutely astonishing how much people can get
scioped into those conversations. It was never a war.
It was a conflict that got resolved in a matter of days.
And now we're kind of seeing the result
of that. I think that the way oil is looking right now, it looks like
they probably already have a peace deal running because oil is completely shit the bed and oil shooting the bed is a good it's a good indication that markets are actually not falling for this as being an actual war conversation.
And they're actually thinking that tensions are going to ease and things are going to kind of chill out from here.
Not to mention oil ran up and ran directly into resistance, the downtrend resistance that was on it the whole time.
And then instantly rejected on that resistance today and is down now more than 12%, which is a massive move for oil.
12%, which is a massive move for oil.
Andrew Tate put a video this morning saying how oil is going to surge like crazy, and
then it just starts tanking, which is...
I can tell you why.
He's not a good trader, first off.
I don't think he's a trader at all.
Second off, he probably thought that a war was going to break out and war is actually indicative of oil prices going up
so he wouldn't be wrong on that front
but you would actually have to see this conflict with Iran as an actual war
I don't think anybody should have looked at it as a war
they should have looked at it as a conflict
that has been going on for hundreds of years
obviously and got resolved by the u.s in
a matter of days and i think like if people really kind of understood the the military power of the
u.s they would understand that basically any country that tried to stand against us it doesn't
take long for us to pretty much knock out everything they have. We have so far, our technological advances are so far ahead of the rest of the world.
It's not even funny.
I mean, they didn't even see it coming when we came in and bombed them, which is wild
that they didn't, you don't see, like, they don't have control of their air anymore.
They don't have any air at all.
And people were saying that this was going to be some kind of longstanding war that,
you know, was going to continue on.
And we were going to be in it for a long time, like basically like Iraq.
And it's like, no, boots on the ground is completely different from air attacks.
I thought about this in the discord too.
And, you know, I even think that to a degree, I thought about this on the discord, too. I think some of this is theater on the back end.
I think some of this is theater on the backend.
I do think like in some ways that I ran attacking the U S base was probably
collaborated on the backend was probably allowed so they could show face so
they don't look bad.
And that's why it was evacuated ahead of time.
And we basically shot all their rockets out of the sky.
They didn't,
they didn't make contact.
So in that scenario, they can be like, hey, we attacked the U.S., the biggest military power in the world.
We're not weak.
We're a strong country.
And then the U.S. can be like, yeah, congratulations.
Pat them on the back and be like, all right, let's sit down and talk about peace.
And I think not enough people are looking at this from that aspect.
They're looking at it from the other way around.
And this is why it's hard to play these things like war and stuff like that.
This has escalated in a matter of four or five days and de-escalated in the same amount of time.
And you should never, at least from a monetary standpoint, you should never bid your portfolio on world events like that.
It's just a bad, bad take.
I mean, I watched a lot of people yesterday capitulate,
which is absolutely wild.
Capitulate, their portfolio positions,
only to come back and see it go higher.
And you see a lot of those same people end up buying back in much higher.
It's just not the play.
But ultimately, whatever the forces may be,
we got the levels I was looking for outside of Bitcoin.
So I'm good with markets moving back up from here.
I think things are looking pretty good personally.
Will, are you expecting
a huge move this week like Donnie is?
Am I expecting what?
A huge move this week like Donnie is.
Hey, I didn't say this week.
It's imminent, Donnie.
There's no room for consolidation.
It's up only or the end of the world, bro.
It could happen in a few days, I'm telling you.
It happens.
I think it's crab walk
into Q4.
And then from there, we'll
likely see a big move. I think Powell's
going to capitulate
on the July meeting.
And I think we'll probably get a rate cut
right around that time.
That's really been my thesis since Q1.
As you've seen in the discord,
Bobby,
like I've been telling people since Q1 to just wait till Q4.
Don't even bother trying to play the chop.
You know what I,
what I don't think the market is priced in is the next fed chair,
which Trump is going to appoint and he is going,
he or she is going to be a bull.
Yeah, it's, they're going to cut and they're going to do one round of Kiwi. So it's either
one of two things, either the market just starts imploding as Powell leaves. And then right when
the Fed chair comes in, uh, the new Fed chair comes in, markets bottom,
or markets just rage throughout all of 2026,
and they just continue this bearish chop for the rest of the year
while only a select few alts
show any sort of good price action.
I don't know.
What I would say to that is,
and I think this is really important
for people to pay attention to, I've talked about this since Q1 too. If you look at basically August of 2023, that was where the market rallied. It bottomed in August, rallied in September. Remember, everybody yells every year, September's historically bad.
remember everybody yells every year september is historically bad 2024 it dumped in august
rallied in september and now we're going to be moving into 2025 and expectations are we get the
same repetitive pattern and everybody says they don't know what's going on still right but you
have this pattern that's played out now two years in a row and three times a pattern
by the way just for the audience's sake so once you see it happen three times it then becomes a
pattern so this will be the third time and if it plays out again in this third time it's then a
pattern that we can follow and i think that you know really truly it is going to play out. We're going to see July, August, maybe a slight dip,
some kind of scenario.
I don't know.
This top was really interesting.
It looks identical to 2021's top,
and I think a lot of people are getting psyched out on that.
A lot of people are like, oh, yeah, this is the exact same top as 2021.
It's like, yeah, the market comes in, creates a market,
four years later does the same as that 2021. It's like, yeah, the market comes in, creates a market, four years later,
does the same as that thing.
That makes sense.
It's just the macro is completely opposite.
Like you had a tightening regime at that high
and now you're literally waiting for a massive expansion
in terms of monetary policy.
You're waiting for cuts.
You're waiting for buys.
You're waiting for the opposite
of what you were waiting for in 2022.
2022 was a squeezing by the fed and and going into this year you're looking at a loosening by the fed
right you got tightening and loosening they're two different markets as a whole so you can't really
consider them to be the same that's what i tell people too i think it's very obvious that there
are two different types of markets.
And anytime you end up in a easy market, you should always be a little more bullish than bearish regardless of conditions. I think too, a lot of people don't realize like tariffs are
heavily affecting spending, which is helping slow inflation even faster than the Fed probably
anticipated. And the Fed is actually thinking inflation. Again, I've heard this from the news. I've heard this from the Fed. Tariffs create inflation. All we've
seen is spending slow, right? So spending slows, is that creating inflation or is that removing
inflation? I would say spending slowing would be removing inflation because people aren't spending
more. And I think that that's really important for you people to understand too, is that we're seeing a slow in spending, which means
inflation is likely coming down faster than what the Fed anticipated. So actually, the tariffs have
probably helped the Fed more than they've hurt the Fed, even though the Fed says that we have to
really evaluate the tariffs and look at them. Again, go to a local car dealer, go to a
big car dealer, tell me how many cars they're selling. Go to a real estate person, tell me
how many houses they're selling. Nothing's moving right now. Everything's pretty much at a standstill.
People aren't spending the way they were in 2021. They've drawn back a lot, not to mention that prices are still
kind of semi-elevated, right? And I think that's more made up prices by basically the economy
trying to hold on to their original pricing power and slowly losing grip of their original pricing
power. And I think that that's what a lot of people got to really look at here. We'll slowly see them lose more and more and more of that edge of pricing power in these markets.
And you'll start to see the buyers gain more pricing power than the sellers. And that's where
you'll see that price kind of pull back. And that's really what we're looking for with a lot
of markets, I think specifically, at least I am. And I think like 2026 is going to be a little tricky.
I won't lie. I'm kind of bearish on crypto in 2026, but I think ultimately, you know,
the finale of this year will look pretty good. I will say this too. Typically a lot of market
fears can come with the initial cuts in the easing. So that could cause some kind of scenario
where the market could dump into August, right,
rather than pump into it.
And then essentially after that,
the market should kind of, you know,
feel a little more confident.
And then at that point,
maybe kind of bid into the easing
once they realize everything's okay.
If easing is due to a problem,
then markets won't take it well. If easing is due to a problem, then markets won't take it well.
If easing is due to natural regression of basically inflation,
then markets should ease in and start to take it well,
and markets will continue to do well as they have been.
I mean, it's not been anything crazy up here.
We've just basically, if you take a high time frame view,
we've been ranging between 109 and 80K as the low. I mean, it's not been anything crazy up here. We've just basically, if you take a high time frame view,
we've been ranging between 109 and 80K as the low, right?
And now we're kind of at the top in range playing between 109 and 100K.
That's the range we're playing through right now.
then it becomes an M if it breaks 100.
And if we get another dip, then it becomes an M. If it breaks 100, but if it doesn't, then we're good.
But if it doesn't, then we're good.
So you think the cycle ends without others' BTC going to range highs?
Because others' BTC is in a huge bear market.
It's quite disgusting, and that's why I've been...
I think it'll move fast.
That's the problem.
I think others' BTC will reverse really fast.
Just like it always has 2021 it moved really quick against bitcoin once it bottomed it ran man i i'm so skeptical when it
comes to uh all coin out performance against btc in an in an egregious fashion um i enjoy the
rotation and narrative trades and that's what I am.
I'm a trader.
I don't care about fundamentals or a story about anything, really.
We're all here to make money,
and anyone that tells you otherwise is lying to you.
But, dude, like this whole concept of alt season,
I think it's kind of a dream that's being
sold to people that's honestly a scam um god they're just taking a look at the chart like
pull up others btc on the weekly it looks like eth btc um back in like q4 of 23 q4 of 23 yeah but is it is it others btc roughly total two
no others btc is is basically like all all coins on their btc pair on their btc pair
and that that chart is disgusting total two values all coins on their market cap usd price
stuff like that and if you're trading anything other than bitcoin you're saying that i have more
alpha um than stratify at this time and there has been a case to be made that you know a lot of us do have more alpha on a short on a
shorter time period but if you've held all coins for more than like a couple of months with the
exception of a few right with the exception of like a hype a pepe right there are the anomalies
but most all so far this cycle if you've held them for more than a couple of months, you've mainly been
burned.
You've mainly been burned.
And even that move on MOG, most of that move from MOG happened in like four months, from
December of 23 to April of 24.
And that was it, four months.
And after that, it's just a consistent bleed against Bitcoin.
So my question is, how would the market cycle top in Q4 of this year when the liquidity
cycle is about to shift towards more dovishness?
And unless massive QE and rates get cut to zero. Basically, if we don't have emergency cuts, just the case for others BTC to rally like 10x,
it's really difficult, man.
It is really, really difficult to see that happen.
I don't know.
I think any type of easing is going to relieve the market in a big way.
I think a cut in an easing scenario is going to make markets
feel more comfortable with inputting money.
Markets do not feel comfortable with inputting money right now.
I got to agree with Will and push back on that, Wabi.
I mean, I see where you're coming from.
You don't want to get wrapped up in the story of altcoins.
A lot of these things, we all know that 98, 99% of altcoins at some point will get obliterated.
That was a phrase that was said over and over and over again for years.
So we all know on a high enough timeframe, some of these altcoins may or may not survive,
but we all acknowledge that the entire altcoin space is just a massive experiment in terms of experimenting with, you know,
you know, just tech and, you know, how can we build with founders and builders kind of
figuring out how to navigate in this space.
So I don't, I wouldn't say that there's no opportunity.
I see where you're coming from, kind of looking at things from a trader's perspective.
see where you're coming from, kind of looking at things from a trader's perspective.
But at the same time, when you look at others BTC, the time to get bearish was, you know,
a long time ago.
We're close to like this kind of, you know, eight year support level.
So maybe we have a little bit more room to the downside to go on others BTC.
But, you know, the time for upside is closer than what it was before, in my opinion, especially as we get closer to Will's point, as we get closer
to easing. And by the way, others is everything excluding the top 10. So when you're looking at this chart, everything outside
the top 10 largely hasn't done anything. And that's mainly because ETH is at the same place
that it was a year ago, or at least it was a few days back. So ETH hasn't really done much. And so
that means altcoins didn't really do much. But if you're saying that we have easing ahead of us,
we have a more clear regulatory environment. We see that there's going to be a lot of support,
a lot more guardrails within the space. And then even internally, I feel like a lot of people are
getting kind of tired of the crime season, quote unquote. A lot of people are getting tired of the extraction.
And the market has done a good job of being able to see through this veil that a lot of
projects just put up. So I do feel like the market has matured in some way over these last
several years. So all of that put together with, you know,
favorable liquidity conditions, I think, you know, a lot of people are going to venture out on the
risk curve. We found a reason to do that back in 2021. And that was before BlackRock gave us an
excuse to do so. That was before, you know, these treasury vehicles in the stock market gave us an excuse to do so.
So if companies in TradFi are already willing to go out on the risk curve to, you know, create a treasury around something like Solana or Tron or what have you,
or what have you, or we see institutional demand for ETFs outside going further out on the risk
curve, like Solana, Litecoin, and others, then you can bet, you can be not 100% certain,
but the likelihood is that retail and a large pool of capital will find a reason to venture out on the risk curve.
And that's where altcoins start to catch a bit. Obviously, liquidity plays a big role in that.
But on the cusp of all of that changing, I don't see a reason to be bearish on others' BTC when
we're literally spinning distance from a you know, a very high timeframe,
eight year support level. Yeah. I mean, to add to that too, you know, crime has only been able
to control the timeline because the money hasn't money flow hasn't moved in yet. And that's what
a lot of people haven't realized with, you know, low caps and means and all that stuff like that.
Liquidity flow has to move in before
your crime can stop because then the criminals can't control the liquidity flow anymore once
real liquidity starts to move back in but right now it just you know it's rinsing and repeating
crime you're seeing a lot on the timeline um and you know i think in time that that stuff will get
washed out once once liquidity flow and easing comes into play too.
You got to keep in mind too, a lot of people aren't buying or bidding things.
People aren't borrowing money, for instance.
People aren't buying new cars.
People aren't buying new houses.
There's a lot of things that aren't happening in the market due to rates.
Rates are just too high.
And so people look at rates as negative.
But a lot of people don't realize this one trick with rates is
It's typically not a bad idea to buy in a high rate environment because you can get the asset cost cheaper and then you come back
And you refi later after you've gotten the asset check cost cheaper, but a lot of people aren't
They think the wrong way with that. Hey, well aren't like at least
You know low rates still bullish because people are getting yield on their money markets.
And so that's big.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Low rates will be really good for borrowing.
I got a call.
But I was thinking people are getting yield on money markets.
Isn't that basically a little bit of stimulus?
Not enough, though. money markets isn't that basically like a little bit of stimulus you know not not not enough though because there's i think there's still a lot of liquidity that hasn't really moved in on markets
you could definitely see it the cycle it's been piss poor it's just been the same individuals
controlling liquidity essentially whereas like when you saw the liquidity liquidity flow in 2021
it was a lot more uh fluid right? It was just consistent money flow,
consistent money flow, consistent money flow. And that's what typically happens in a low rate
environment. It's like infinite money twop. Whereas when you're in a high rate environment,
it's a lot more strenuous on the people wanting to bid and on the markets in general. And markets
know that there's people out there that are that are looking for liquidity they're willing to take a two or three x so markets are not willing to step in big on that
they want to wait until the market is actually feeling well and no longer sick anymore aka high
rates and then you'll start to see liquidity flow move in we see that across the board like all
even even the stock market is lacking liquidity in a low liquidity market.
Low caps are really struggling across the board. The only thing we've seen pretty much bid this whole cycle in a meaningful way has been like majors in Bitcoin, right?
Which is considered a major in the crypto industry.
So I think like when you see that, you can really understand that people are not willing to step in to risk yet.
And it's not a risk on market.
But the second you start to see rate cuts again, the initial cut will be a little tricky.
But I think as you know, as cuts continue, people will feel more and more comfortable with that.
And then we'll see kind of where things go.
And I think we'll put it if we'll move back in pretty heavily.
level went back in pretty heavily. I think the better question is just,
instead of trying to, you know, come up with a reason for alts not, you know, not being able
to outperform, I think the better thing for anyone really, whether you're trading short term or high timeframe,
like bigger caps, or no matter what you trade, I think what you should be looking at is where
should I be positioned right now? When we know that we have the likelihood is that
when liquidity comes back, it will flow into altcoins. Yes, it'll go to BTC, it'll go to Ethereum.
But as capital finds a reason to go out on the risk curve
and they have enough avenues and a high probability of doing so,
then we just have to figure out where would it go next.
And I think that's a much better question.
And as we find a bottom on others' BTC, I think that is where time will be best spent.
Because at this point, we're really close to a macro bottom on others' BTC.
And it's just a matter of positioning to make the full use of whatever we have left.
of positioning to make the full use of, you know, whatever we have left.
Personally, I think that we go into 2026.
I think we see somewhat of an extended cycle.
And because of many different factors, and you can just search extended cycle on my profile,
and you'll see a write-up that
I do and I include all of the evidence that I'm collecting as well. So there's a lot out there
that shows that the probability is going up of an extended cycle, in my opinion.
But let's just say you think that cycle top and, cycle top, you know, and bearish 2026,
you still have six months left. And so with us, you know, basically flushing out a lot of the
weak hands, making some of the bulls flip bearish at what really was a bottom a few days ago,
now is just what's going capture uh or give you the best
at capturing upside um so i think that's where that's where a lot of the questions should be
focused uh and what the energy should be focused on is just positioning yeah i mean i i would say
this too like i i'm not i'm very market neutral at the moment i'm not super bold super bared or
anything like that.
I think, I think we'll probably deal with a little more chop solidation through this
range.
So just being realistic with people.
I think people should be prepared for volatility and outside of that, you should be looking
for opportunity if you're, if you're, if you're prepared for volatility and if you're already
positioned and you bought high, it is what it is.
Sometimes you buy, sometimes you buy low, but you know, if you're already positioned and you bought high, it is what it is. Sometimes you buy, sometimes you buy low.
But, you know, if you're expecting liquidity flow,
it shouldn't really matter where you bought, to be honest with you,
because high isn't high when liquidity flow comes.
I think just, you know, a lot of people look for reasons for price action
rather than looking for price action itself before the reasons occur.
I was starting to see the topping pattern on 112,
especially when James Wim was in their post
and his crap on the timeline.
But I think ultimately,
once you started to see those more bullish trends
from the TL,
you kind of had to really pay attention to the charts.
And the charts were kind of telling you,
hey, you might roll here.
You might kind of come back, retest the lows.
So just look for that.
And it basically aired a lot of opportunity. But at the same time, could it go a little lower?
Sure. But 5%, 10%, 15% pullback in crypto is really not a lot. I think stock markets look
pretty good. I hope we don't get an SFB. That's something I'm not looking forward to. I don't want a swing
fail pattern. So I don't want to break out right now on, on SPX. I want SPX to come back and retest
its gap at 5,700 and then go. I feel like that's a healthier way to do this. Whereas if we break
all time high, we could SFP just like what we did with Bitcoin, come back down and retest that gap
later. And that would be a little more detrimental
because then you're coming from higher, which means, you know, more pullback to everything
that's associated to it. I'm just taking this from technical levels. That's all I'm doing.
I'm not overthinking this whole thing. I'm taking each technical and kind of playing into it. And
then, you know, if I see the opportunity to take longs or shorts, I do so. I think the makeup industry is looking really, really good.
I mean, I would say ideally I wouldn't buy Elf here, but use Elf as an example.
You can go look at that chart.
It looks absolutely phenomenal.
And that's a makeup company, a new one.
And then EL is another one that I'm eyeballing right now that looks really good too.
Why makeup?
I don't know.
It just seems to be catching a trend right now.
And you see
these type of rotations consistently. I think when it comes to EV markets, you're going to have to
follow Tesla. Tesla is the kingmaker when it comes to EVs. It's got to move first before the rest of
EVs will move. But I think there's a lot of opportunities out there. You got NIO, you got
Riven, you got Lucid, you got a lot of different EV makers. I think people should be looking into
things like that versus looking
for the next war or looking for the next reason why something happens or doesn't happen. And I
think if you position those things in the long term and then you could take some risk plays on
momentum and volume, then you can make some money on that too on the back. And everybody just wants
to make money tomorrow. They don't have a long-term vision with their overall portfolio.
They have a very short-term vision and i remember that rivian trade that you made in the summer two years ago
man it doubled um i'm looking at the chart right now dude this thing looks absolutely floored
um maybe it does doesn't it and it's low. Maybe EVs catch a bid, especially with, what was it?
The RoboTaxi that came out.
Yep, RoboTaxi.
That could definitely re-spark EVs.
Yeah.
Yeah, I'm not aware of anything other than Rivian and Lucid.
But these crypto IPOs, they're going to be a huge opportunity for the second half of
the year and it's it's difficult to see a world where like something like an avax or a chain link
or a solana or an eth i'll perform some of these ipos they're coming out at ridiculously low low valuations um a five bill IPO in the stock market is like a fair launch project on chain
launching at like 15 mil 20 mil market cap as crazy as it sounds and that's reflective
if anyone could have participated in the coinbase
and I think you'd be up like almost 11x and if you bought on open market after
ipo um you're up like 300 and the best thing that people that only focus on crypto like to do
and they spend too much time here is always trying to call a top top top top top top top it's it's all i've
heard for three years it's really weird norm yeah it's it's really it's crazy because it's crazy i
think a lot of people are um like very scared of missing the top right right? Like so many people got, they got hit when they didn't time
the 2021 top correctly. And so now I feel like the market is kind of just constantly looking for
a top because it has the PTSD of 2021. And that's why you've heard so many times on the timeline where this person is calling
for, you know, this top or this top that, you know, we only have six months left, three months
left, or this is going to be our last chance or what have you. I think a much better approach to
the market is just looking at, you know, risk on and risk off and positioning in one and then kind of selling in the other
and selling into the strength. And, you know, I think, you know, not timing 2021 has just been
an absolutely like, it's been living in a lot of people's heads rent free. And that's definitely
reflected in the way they approach the market and the way they trade it.
in the way they approach the market and the way they trade it.
Is Will speaking?
No, no, I don't think so. I don't hear him.
Okay, okay.
Man, well, man, Donnie, when is Bisset getting to inject
all those trillions into the market, man?
Now that Trump
has tweeted out, it's time for world
peace.
They have the
Fed meeting on the 25th
to discuss those SLR exemptions.
I think that'll definitely juice the market
if they can get that over the line, which
they're promising that they will.
And before it even gets
fully actually implemented,
Markle will front run, I believe.
So they're basically just trying to put a cap on yields
with all of these things that they're trying to bring
in forms of credit creation, right?
So there's tons of that to come.
Obviously, they have their big plan,
their pro-growth, pro-market agenda.
And yeah, I personally believe the odds of a cycle
top in 2025 are less than
25% now, just based
on the timeline of
where the policymaker's stance is with all of this
stuff. And
if you stay above
that demand zone on BTC right
now, which is basically
97.9
through to 94k, if you stay
above that,
before
probably the middle of July,
I reckon you're going to break to all-time highs
in July.
if that happens, you're probably seeing
130, 140, 150k BTC.
I'm looking for mid-July or early August.
Sorry?
I said I'm looking for the same time.
Actually, end of July, early August, that's where I'm looking for.
Yeah.
So if you do maintain that level, I think you're definitely going to break to the highs.
And then we'll see how high it goes and stuff.
I think there's a lot of pent-up energy
at the top of this premium section on the chart, right?
If you do get this break,
I think it's going to be super sharp and fast.
And yeah, probably look for some sort of local correction
after that rally.
I don't know how long that will last.
Again, there's so many macro triggers
or macro levers that are pointing in the right direction.
You've had DXY and you from the top to the low,
which took 98 days, unlocked a bunch of liquidity.
And then you've had DXY stay below 100 for 67 days.
And it's looking like it's going to go,
break the lows again and trend towards 90.
So I don't know, this is all just pointing liquidity positive.
The problem with global bond markets is also looking liquidity positive.
You're literally seeing these bigger economies and their central banks start rolling out
projections of how they're essentially going to increase their money supply to help aid
this situation.
So everything is just pointing to essentially monetary inflation for the cycle.
So that's why gold is doing insanely well.
Maybe it even goes higher, probably does.
Gold, stocks, BTC, all looking bullish in this environment.
So I just don't see how you can top this cycle when all of this, sorry, this year when all
of this stuff is unfolding.
And it's pretty clear that they're trying to get all of this implemented.
And I guess the voter base in US
actually feeling the effects of the positivity
that they're trying to bring to the market
before midterms, right?
So that timeline is, you know,
all the way through to November of 2026.
So I'm not saying you have to go all the way until then
you need to see a lot more before that but i just don't see how it happens all within six months
you got a few people uh requesting up here man i'm kind of scared they never really have like
any mutual followers anything anything like that.
You never know what you're going to get.
Dude, I agree with you, Donnie.
To see this market cycle wrapped up in five months,
most of the move in Q4 is done by the first week of December.
By the first week of December, the market's cooked, at least for majors.
And 2017, the market was just way, way, way, way too small, dude.
But I'm excited for the new Fed chair.
That's going to be absolutely crazy.
That's huge as well, that right there.
You're obviously seeing a narrative being built around low interest rates, right?
And we know that they're going to appoint a new Fed chair
when Powell gets out.
If they confirm someone that's, you know,
it doesn't really even matter who at this point.
It's obviously going to be a gigadov
that's just going to do whatever Trump says, essentially.
I think that...
Anybody be better than Powell.
Yeah, exactly.
And obviously they're going to be...
I don't know what his MO is, but I think he was late.
He was late to raising and he's going to be late to cutting.
And I think nobody realized that everybody says he did a good job.
No, he didn't.
He said he said inflation was transitory at like six, seven percent.
Not to mention he said inflation was transitory at six, seven percent.
He's also now refusing to cut even though inflation
is basically gone by his metrics by that i'm not saying by like every metric but by their
their on paper metrics inflation is basically gone yeah exactly like he was being very data
dependent right he gets the data that by their metrics like you're saying he should have at least
been a little bit dovish towards cuts, maybe even project something on their rate projections, right?
And then he goes to say that they're forward-looking now,
and they're looking at what these experts are saying,
and they're forecasting about tariff inflation.
So he went from being real-time data-driven to forward-looking, right?
Tell me the tariff conversation too, by the way, Donnie,
doesn't sound politically driven. It's absolutely the most absurd i've ever heard when you look at the inflation numbers there's no reason to even bring up tariffs it's irrelevant yeah yeah yeah
and so that's another big thing right if they do appoint a new fed chair um i just don't see how
that's not going to lead to uh further continuation of the cycle in 2026.
You might obviously get a local top when some of these cuts start to get implemented.
If what Will's saying, we get a cut in the end of July or maybe even the September meeting,
we could actually rally going into that and then the cut is the top
and you reaccumulate for a little bit and then rally after.
That's something to keep in mind.
But yeah, this new Fed share thing,
I think that's going to be a very big macro driver
because it's just going to add to the inflation picture, right?
So yeah, I think it's going to be definitely in 2026, this cycle.
And you'll probably get two rallies, one this year, one next year.
probably get two rallies one this year one next year so i brought up a few people prometheus
what's up man then we'll just go down the line not much bro can you hear me yep good nice man
yeah just at the gym getting a lift in thought i'd jump up here well I'm just walking on the treadmill here a little bit but yeah I think I just think
people are over complicating this market right now you know I mean if you look
structurally at Bitcoin right now I mean we did it at least on the daily you know
we broke our British or our bullish market structure character
to the downside with the futures open.
And, you know, everybody's like, oh, you know, everybody's so scared too.
I mean, everybody's talking about like selling the top.
Everybody's so scared of missing the rip too.
Like, let's be real.
I think the most important thing is, you know, not taking previous cycles as, you know, into
as much into context as, you know, many folks have done this cycle.
We're really just playing the charts.
You know, we talk about it all the time, like with the crop collateralization of all the
liquidity in the
system and um i mean we're just going to behave more and more and more like uh trad fi markets
ultimately speaking and i mean that kind of sucks but uh you know the four-year cycle
at this point kind of gets thrown out the window with like that cross-collateralization, increased correlation.
It's just going to be about playing charts, man.
Like, you know, everybody's so eager to get back in the markets on the talks of,
on the talks of quote-unquote peace in the Middle East and yada yada yada you know
and I'm just like looking at the Bitcoin chart and I'm like guys we just kind of
we just broke you know a big level with that futures open and you got to kind of
pray that it's some form of manipulation.
Otherwise, your next spot really is 91K.
High time frame target, obviously, for Bitcoin.
Looking at the forest is like 120 to 130K, and I'm calling it, man.
But just like, there's no need to overcomplicate it.
And also right here, I don't think there's any need to, like, rush into beta.
There's no need to, like, rush back into the markets.
You know, I mean, order books were super thin after the move we had after the weekend.
And I'm, like, in no spot right now where, like like you need to be chasing risk to the upside
especially in this current market environment man I'm just like it's hilarious everybody's
so worried not only about selling the top everybody's so worried about missing out on a
pump you know and the name of the game, this entire cycle has literally been
everybody getting chopped to bits in the death range for nine months last year. And then this
year, basically the same thing. So it's like, what do you think is going to change? Um, you really
think you're going to miss out on like the Omega pump to 200 K? Like, I just want to give like a dose of reality for everybody. You know,
um, you think your shit coin is going to go to like a hundred billion. Like, let's be real. Um,
so, you know, the current economic, you know, fiscal and monetary regime has not changed.
Like nothing has changed. Um, you know you know and when the market really gives us
true risk on an easy mode you know that's not going to be hard to chase like we all know what
happened at the end of 23 the beginning of 24 ai summer you know when the markets go truly risked
on playing a catch-up is not hard um in easy mode and you have shit just going at hundreds of percents
in the matter of like a 15 minute candle um you know stuff that's like well over 10 mil market
cap you know so if you need to play uh catch up that's not an issue but at least wait for the
fucking market to signal it like i don't get the talk like oh you
gotta get it now you gotta get it now otherwise you know fomo in chase chase all these green candles
um it's just kind of ironic right now and like from a structural perspective you got to get over
106k before you even before you even talk about any of that. You know? Just like...
And that's based off of just pure TA.
I don't know if anybody's actually saying get in.
I've actually seen more fear than I've seen people wanting to get involved with the markets right now.
No, well, people are saying it both ways.
People are saying it both ways.
We just got news from DB.
Trump just said Israel and Iran agreed to complete ceasefire in six hours.
What did I say, Wabi?
What the fuck did I say?
They just tweeted that out like five seconds ago, and everything is sending now.
I told you, bro.
I literally said that shit in the disco.
Not sending, but like...
No, no, but I told you that they were going to ceasefire.
I'm not worried about the
the short-term volatility yeah upside or downside but the ceasefire was inevitable even though
everybody said this is going to be world war three just like russia was going to be world war three
yeah i mean i don't want to get into geopolitics really but like the actual fact that people
thought nukes were going to start getting shot, like, let's like, oh my
gosh, it was that was crazy. I mean, they're lining up for it the whole time, you know, when
it regards to actual, you know, Trump and Putin and Xi all have been saying, and been, you know,
posturing for de-escalation. So, I mean, the fact that like if anybody really thought they were going to try to actually escalate this past, you know, blowing up the nuclear sites, I think was a little out of
their mind. Yeah, I mean, the writing's on the wall right now. I mean, I think you just continue
to play the charts, like play the charts, play the charts, play the charts. You know, we've had
this whole, this whole Trump,
the whole time Trump's been in office,
it's been a freaking rollercoaster of headline.
Headline-driven this, headline-driven that.
And I think just playing the chart right now,
it's going to be people's best friend
to ignore that noise specifically.
Mark, what's going on, man?
You see you have your hand up.
Hey, how you doing, man? Thank you for having me up. I hope everyone is doing great.
I see my friend Leslie down there. She's like one of my ex-stalkers. She's always
following me around ex. Man, I actually came up because I want to share a story, a security
thing. You can never go wrong by telling people you know to be safe on crypto
and i do have a question is uh the question 2.0 double top uh for the you know for this cycle
whatever you want to call it uh you know some of my friends are concerned with the the odds
having that double top uh from jan from uh i want to say, maybe late March, early April,
and then December, where like AVAX and all these coins topped almost at the same price.
What do you guys think about that?
And quick story.
This just happened, man, like an hour and a half ago.
It's fucking sad as hell.
You can never go wrong by sharing this
with an audience like yours i had a friend of mine that uh he had his uh hot wallets on an ipad
and uh he never used the ipad for anything but uh his phone got hacked man and his ipad got hacked
how the hell did they do that well he was sharing the the same apple id
on the phone and the ipad so if you're keeping your crypto on an ipad and you're sharing the
same apple id and you're on your phone freaking looking at things that you shouldn't be looking
at or clicking on links uh it's almost the same device and he got hacked and he lost over uh you know high five
figures in crypto so just be careful guys and if he would have had a cold storage i'm not going to
name any cold storage because i'm not going to you know tell you what to buy but if he probably
would have had a coaster which i told him a thousand times uh he would have been uh probably
safe but yeah careful sharing the same idea on two different devices.
They could hack it.
It's really sad.
This was like almost two hours ago.
A guy just wants to die.
And with that, with the question, the double top on, you know,
doing this cycle on these altcoins,
is that a little concerning?
Not at all, brother.
That's bullshit.
I don't even know what a top on altcoins looks like.
Bitcoin dictates the market.
So when Bitcoin tops, there are some market tops.
So I don't understand the question.
Unless you're talking about Bitcoin topping.
I think he was talking about Bitcoin, the double top from 21.
I'm repeating that.
I already talked about that earlier, bro.
Yeah, no, no.
I'm talking about the altcoins now.
Okay, altcoin double top?
I don't know what that means.
I mean, like AVAX hit around the same price back in March and December.
Couldn't break through that.
And a lot of all coins couldn't break
through even our Ethereum I think was four thousand then like thirty nine hundred you mean
they're sideways price action basically I mean I wouldn't call it a double top I'd just say it's
sideways price action I mean go compare it's indicative total theory it's you get BTC and
price discovery chops consolidates for two to three weeks.
All coins fly for two to four weeks.
And then they cool off.
And then from there on out, it's small pockets about performance.
You know, this whole chasing the dragon, chasing the fairy, 21-style shit.
It's not going to happen unless everybody starts getting checks again.
No, I don't know that'd be check
related you just need easing that's what you need you need the market to ease you need rates to come
down those i think that's the most important part i don't think you need need checks necessarily
you just need people to be able to move liquidity and they need to be able to borrow money cheap
people aren't going to borrow expensive money. Nobody's going to do that. Not especially where rates are.
With this ceasefire thing, man, wouldn't it be something
if Pal announces the end of QT in two days?
That's what I'm saying, bro.
No, I think it's going to be in July.
I think in July we see QE.
And then even if he doesn't cut, if he even announces QE.
See QE thing,ek easing, brother?
Like money printing?
Money printing on top of war being over.
That would be good.
Yeah, they don't want to print when the war is going on.
Because that was the whole thing.
That was the whole year of Trump was saying,
oh, you're giving the money away.
Giving the money.
I don't think that Powell is necessary.
He's just playing the bad guy. But I really don't think that they want to print until the russian war is over
and i believe that'll be around at the end of july because they're already out of cash
they're already out of drone thank you they're already out of the same same thought process
you know i just the motion of the economy isn't the same with what the narratives will say about
it but it gives you it gives everybody an excuse you just like follow the money like
all this defense money that's going out there right now there's this new company that just opened that's working with NASA, Elon Musk, Tesla, and Lockheed Martin.
It was just released on Cash App two days ago.
And when that defense money, when they sign that dotted line, that money goes in their pocket, you're looking at another pump, like with CoreWeave, Circle.
You know, I watch the you know i watch the money i watch the money
yeah yeah a lot of stocks are going to shock people man oh yeah well the money it's like a
tide it's like water it's like the ocean if though if this lake it gets, they can do more. So go in that lake. Yeah. I mean, we're basically doing a slower version of the late 90s.
Dude, just look at Hoodstock.
Hoodstock is up 10x in 18 months.
Palantir is up like 20x in two years.
Keep in mind, Wobble, we got Palantir in the Discord at $13, bro.
Yeah, you called that out you called that out will in
your in your uh in your equities in your equities talks um and like people in crypto they're always
saying man this is the late 90s is it late 90s but how can you be in the late 90s when you're
talking about actual garbage like chain link which hasn't done anything um in regards
to its outperformance in bitcoin in almost half a decade like do you understand that bro out
performance against bitcoin for five years dog shit like ava what about link marines and the
latest scam which is ondo like brother why are you talking about ando when ando was a good trade wabi it was
a good trade exactly it's a trade but it's not an asset to hold long term dude well they're um
like a treasury they're they're a treasury right now that's working with the uh the genius hack
like they didn't hit yet not that i'm going to put anything into them because it looks like their chart is a little bit artificial you know but i can see though when the treasury money gets rolled out they're going
to get a chunk you know i mean they're going to do something with it but i don't think that's
really the type of the one that they're really trying to pump it for the people you know what i
mean so they're going to look at they're going gonna look like it but they're ain't gonna perform like it you know oh yeah what there's always the question
what if it pulls off like an xlm type of pump from last cycle the cycle before
um i think stellar stellar xrp and there was this other piece of trash all coin they all
pumped at the same time or they used to pump at the same time um
xlm that's yeah it was xlm xrp and one other one other token maybe it was just those two but
um yeah i think that's maybe something arndo can do but like the fact that it was like a
kol raise and i don't know man that fdv just that that that supply that came out into the
market just destroyed it all um same thing with ena and there's just other proxies to bet on for
upside outside of those altcoins like the longer i'm here in the space the more i see like
i dude a lot of these alts like there's just no purpose in holding them outside of a couple of
weeks and if you actually want to grow your wealth,
the stock market has
a ton of opportunities that can shock people, man.
Yeah.
I tell people all the time
that if you're going to come
into crypto, play the momentum.
Play the volume. Don't bother
with the other shit.
That's all it is. Just volume and momentum.
When the volume and momentum goes away, move on.
It's that simple.
At least in these markets.
And that's because of the lack of liquidity due to quantitative tightening.
I feel like we talk about tightening so much,
yet so many people don't acknowledge that it's a real problem for markets.
They want to make up all these reasons and say that the checks in 2021 were the reason why 2021 pumped no no you had you had banks out there buying bonds
at like 0.01 yield it had nothing to do with any of that it's just at the time money was much easier
to come by and now money is much tighter but we're coming into a regime where money can again become much cheaper. And you know, a lot of people are just continuing
to get better. What's, you know, what's crazy is this. I see this is my, this is my general
opinion. A lot of the crypto culture. Now I would short story last week, I wrote an article before
the genius act was passed about which cryptos are going to be affected. And then I try to reach out and tell everybody out on Spaces like we are right now.
Hey, guys, watch this tomorrow.
This is probably going to go up.
And it fell on deaf ears.
But everybody was talking about these crappy meme coins like they're in a casino.
Like everybody wants to be in a casino.
But I'm like, here, I have this.
I'm like, here, see this?
It's going to pump tomorrow.
Look at it.
Nobody even responded.
That was like I was a ghost. But then next day i took a loan out i took a loan out the night
before and then i i slapped it on on circle and on coinbase and i took my almost all my cryptos and
i threw it on aerodrome and my average percentage up for all of it was uh 28 and that was for two and a half days and i didn't even get in
today because i've just been too busy but and then circle circle is gonna shock a lot of people even
at these prices man like people underestimate uh tam total addressable market and the fact that people like to confine circle to just coinbase
is insane it's it's actually insane it's like saying the total addressable market for a bank
is for rich people and businesses like not not for businesses for for business owners right like for rich people basically and dude like the
total addressable market for stable coins is a hell of a lot higher than people think now you
can we can all dream and say you know the total addressable market for stable coins is money
supply but that's a fugazi that's never gonna happen um maybe like half the market cap of
gold something like that um and i understand there are skeptics and all that stuff but
if you take a look at the majority shareholder for circle it's it's blackrock right like that's
their business so if you want to bet on blackrock continuing to have an actual monopoly, it's not IBIT, man. It's Circle.
And if you want to bet on Ken Griffith, who's a bit younger than Larry Fink,
because Larry Fink is going to be in a retirement home in 10 years,
but Ken Griffith is starting to get his step in in these markets.
Citadel is the largest market maker so if you think ken griffith is going to be the new larry fink in the next decade then hood is is your
is your proxy for that and i just think like you know if you want to yeah hood hood is is gonna i
think hood is about to enter the s p 500 if if it hasn't already. Because I actually bought HUD in 23.
And late 23 and around January 24, I sold a lot of my altcoins for HUD.
People thought I was insane.
Now they think I'm a genius.
I just saw that I wasn't looking for 100x anymore.
I just felt great buying hood.
And it's almost like investing in crypto too, because I think the hood is the easiest exchange to get in for new users in crypto, you know.
It's not just that.
And, you know, Wabi and I, we've been talking about hoods since January, 2023.
Wabi and Evan, we've been talking about hood since January 2023, but Robinhood is a hell of a product even for pro traders.
Look, Robinhood was giving you Circle IPO at what, $35, $36? What is it now, $236?
That's a Kinex in two weeks, bro.
Right.
With size, liquid.
That's actually, you know, when we were having the debates and I kept saying Wabi, I think Robinhood beats Coinbase and it flipped it.
It's been outperforming if you look multiple years.
But that's Robinhood's secret sauce.
It's just a hell of a product.
You can buy Bitcoin.
You can buy other crypto.
You can buy any equity you want you can trade options you can now
gamble and you can buy IPOs for some of the best companies on the on US markets
for below like for really good prices I mean they have just killing it and they
have anti jeet software so basically. So basically, when you participate in the IPOs and all that stuff, they send you a little warning saying that if you sell XX security before 60 days, you'll no longer have access to this service.
And I think that would be something great to implement in the all-coin market when it comes to things on-chain.
Vesting should actually be a thing.
It was like that in 2017.
If you participated in an ICO, vesting and valuations were a lot more fair than they are right now.
And that's why you saw fairlaunch projects like a CASPA.
What's the other one?
KIDA.
Like they're all Fairlaunch projects.
They all do fantastic.
Same thing with AVM.
I need to ask Matt a question, Bobby.
Go ahead, man.
You can go ahead and finish.
Oh, I'm done, man.
I'm basically almost done for the day, but
go ahead, man.
Matt, so what do you think about
the conflict
in the Middle East, not World War III?
Total nothing
burger. Total nothing
burger.
I shared up in the nest.
I've been traveling.
I was disappointed I couldn't hop on your spaces.
What was it, late last week, Wabi?
But basically, if you were traveling for the last week and you just now checked Bitcoin price, you'd think nothing happened.
What was everyone talking about?
I don't even see what was the exact same price as we'd think nothing happened. Like what, what was everyone talking about? I don't even see what was, like it's the exact same price as we were, uh, four days ago, one week ago.
Like that was just a total nothing burger. Um, uh, I mean, if you want to talk specifics,
Iran, uh, they sell over 90% of all their oil to one country, to China.
So they were just screwed.
They can't defend their skies.
They can't defend their waterways.
They can threaten the straight-form moves.
That's exactly what I brought up today.
People were interacting like they were an actual problem,
like they could actually fight the US.
They've got some speedboats that would make any Miami yacht party laugh.
They don't have a navy.
They can't shut down the Strait of Hormuz if they wanted to.
U.S. would put a fleet on either side of the Strait of Hormuz
and keep it open if it came to it.
Not to mention Iran would β their only revenue stream would dry up too.
The US
wouldn't have to do shit. China would
just do the bidding.
I mean yeah China probably
no you're absolutely right.
China's probably telling Iran
you better not. We buy your oil.
Do not fuck with us or
watch how quickly we switch to just buying straight
we'll just buy more from russia and then who are you going to sell your oil to so iran had
no cards to play all all politics aside this was a nothing burger they had uh uh they had no
they had no chips they had no cards you know cards. They're checking their hand, and they got a pair of twos.
But all you saw in the news is how they were going to fight us,
and this was going to start World War III.
There was so much misinformation flying around with this,
especially on the timeline.
The weekend was the worst.
People were just continuously repeating World War III, World War III, blah, blah, blah.
This is what's going to happen.
You're going to get enlisted if you're at these ages.
You just saw a bunch of information popping off like that.
And it's causing capitulation in the market.
That pretty much fully recovered the next day.
Granted, I understand some people are looking at structure.
But the reality is, how much how much lower are we
going to go from here if we do break down more we're not i mean we're not okay but i mean i would
say i i think as long as we remain above 100 the the market looks pretty strong and i think like
once you flip 106 the market's already moving back. You've already missed the move at that point. You're seeing this candle right now, bro?
Yeah.
I don't have to look.
I already know which direction it's in.
Yeah.
Yeah.
What?
I mean,
I shared it up in the nest.
I shared it up in the nest.
It's really,
it's really easy.
If you just,
if you just look on it at a monthly view,
just look at the monthly candles.
We flipped the winter resistance into support.
We reversed its entire war flood.
Right.
We flipped its entire war flood.
We reversed, man.
No, I'm saying we reversed.
We reversed the entire move that started on Thursday.
Who could have foreseen?
You just had to let trad fi get all their because
trad fi doesn't keep uh uh millions of dollars on crypto exchanges you just have to let trad fi
get their bids in and then sure enough we're back above 104 105 matt let me throw you let me throw
something to you man if you've noticed this market has been bottoming on weekends for three years
three ac actually no, I'm sorry,
for two and a half years, excuse me.
Post FTX, right?
The market didn't bottom until a few weeks after FTX.
We bottomed on Thanksgiving,
on Thanksgiving weekend on the 27th.
That happened on a weekend.
March 2023, the Silicon Valley incident
happened over the weekend.
And I think, I think.
Liberation day, liberation day, literally midnight.
Sunday night liberation day was the bottom for Bitcoin.
Then 10 a.m. for Brogdon Rockets.
Yeah.
And then the yen carry trade also happened on a Sunday.
Yeah.
Yeah.
It's the same.
It's that same phenomenon over and over.
These are the ones happening on a weekend.
Well, yeah, obviously Bitcoin trades 24-7, but TradFi, especially if they're bidding via β I mean, they take off during the weekends. via iBid or FBTC or any of the other massive spot Bitcoin ETFs.
They're going to get their bids in late Sunday night, early Monday morning.
And so, yeah, I think you're right, Wabu.
We've been seeing that for not one, not two, but almost three years now.
So they bought the capitulation on Sunday that everybody sold?
Is that what you're saying?
Oh, hell yeah.
Yeah, they did the math. They're like, wait a minute. Bitcoin doesn't have tariff.
Bitcoin isn't vulnerable to tariffs.
Buy that shit.
Oh, wait.
Bitcoin doesn't have Iran or oil fears.
Buy that shit.
You know what the best part about all this was?
Everything all together?
It was the fact that everybody was sitting there freaking out
at the lows trying to short under under 100k i watched a lot of people open shorts under 100k
and i literally wrote on the timeline and told them don't do that yeah i was like don't short
under 100k bitcoin i was like you're already too late like if you wanted to short you should have
done it at 109 112 if you didn't see it there, you didn't see it at all.
What's the mentality there?
Wait, you got a fluke.
They were looking for capitulation, but you should obviously expect reversal.
But you got a fluke.
You got a fluke, what, last chance to buy under 100K and you shorted?
What is even the rationale what's the thinking
well the fact i don't know i i honestly think that they're probably the same individuals who
were probably looking at iran and saying this was going to actually turn into world war three
well i put something on the nest on my personal profile. I said, screenshotting all of you criminals that are dooming behind dollar store ship posts and freaking out right now.
Many unserious people live and about today.
And I mentioned how crypto has been bottoming on a weekend for a really, really, really long time.
And another post, which I'll put up on the nest let me gloat here
bulls come in during uncertainty fear and doubt arise green candles dot exe and that was at 5 50
a.m est yesterday yeah i mean we were oh go ahead no go ahead. You know, I will say, Will, that on my time when I was scanning through, once I got back online this Monday, you do see a lot of, how to put, there's a lot of CT that, I don't know, they're either in Dubai or Azerbaijan or they're in Saudi.
They're basically in and around the Middle East.
And they seem to think they were there.
I think you're right.
I think they were giving too much of importance
to this Iran, Israel,
or just turbulence in the Middle East in general.
And then, of course, the U.S.
What if U.S. kicks off World War III with Iran?
He's just giving it like way too many
brownie points and it's and and maybe it's because it's in their backyard uh but it was just always
a nothing burger it was always a nothing burger i i saw congress saying this could escalate the war
and like in my mind right just me mentally i was like, how is it going to escalate to war with a country that can't war with the U.S.?
They don't have the means to.
I was like, this is the most absurd stuff I've seen on the timeline.
Will, the U.S. has the greatest military in the entire planet, dude.
By the time you're like 20,000 feet away away i'm sure matt knows the exact number but
if you even get close within a certain radius of the u.s you have the entire navy fleet ready to go
man like they think they think it's a joke dude but like you're gonna have breaking benjamin play
you're not gonna get close dude you're gonna you're going to have Breaking Benjamin, Papa Roach, all the 2000s,
like all the 2000s rock that was playing during the Bush era.
You're going to have that blasting in every city in the United States, brother.
Well, I think there's also β
They really doubt the might of the U.S. when it comes to all regards, dude,
especially with money printing, bro.
Woo!
Boy, man.
The next batch of TV is going to be insane, man.
I think there's also underestimation, underappreciation.
There is no appetite in the U.S. to start another ground war.
No one's interested in another Iraq. No one's interested in another Afghanistan. They want to fly planes that they've already paid for dropping
bonds that they've already built. Sure, everyone's on board for that, but no one's interested in
landing troops here or there or anywhere. defending trade routes and waterways of course
international waters you bet cargo ships that are transporting goods and services and oil and natural
gas uh for all the countries of the world including the u.s yeah that's that's the navy's job but like
there you know the right the left moderates magGA you name it no one's interested in another ground war
and Trump too you know he he like just there's no appetite for it so it never made any sense
it was over before it started I think this is a good place to wrap up man I want to thank Donnie
will Prometheus Matt um all of you guys for coming up here and joining me on today's show let's let's pick up where we left off here on today's show on tomorrow
show especially with the fed meeting happening in two days there's going to be some insane
volatility albeit you know the price action after after fomc came a bit later than than we would
like right perhaps at the very least uh a mean reversion back up to
those levels where we were trading at uh last week could be done for majors um so guys i want to thank
you all so much if this is your first time tuning in ladies and gentlemen and you've enjoyed the
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So before I sign out, guys, I want to give a shout out to my Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ, for allowing me another day of health to talk markets with you all.
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I always like to show my faith in front of everybody and tell my testimony.
And a couple of weeks ago, guys, I did miss out on a few streams, and it was looking quite dark.
But, you know, I held on there, put my faith in the Lord, and here I am back to normal.
God is good all the time, and all the time God is good.
So guys, thank you all so much for tuning in. Whether you were here live in the audience or
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Call your parents. Call your loved ones. Tell them that you love them. Never take a single day for
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return the glory back to God. So with that being pray for it, if you used to cry for it, return the glory back to God.
So with that being said,
spaces are recorded as always, guys,
in case you've missed out on a few bits.
I will see you all tomorrow.
Take care, everyone.
God bless you all.
See you on the next one.
Take care.
Bye-bye.欑εδΊε I'm going to get on the phone. Oh and
and Good job. Good job. Good job.
Good job.
Good job.
Good job.
Good job.
Good job.
Good job.
Good job.
Good job.
Good job.
Good job. Good job. I'm not sure what you're doing. I'm not sure what you're doing. I'm not sure what you're doing.
I'm not sure what you're doing.
I'm not sure what you're doing.
I'm not sure what you're doing.
I'm not sure what you're doing.
I'm not sure what you're doing.
I'm not sure what you're doing.
I'm not sure what you're doing.
I'm not sure what you're doing.
I'm not sure what you're doing.
I'm not sure what you're doing. I'm not sure your death with you. Don't steal your survival inside.
I was reaching me.
Don't ever say that you're so good.
Dance with me.
Dance with me.
Dance with me.
Rumpa-dee-poo-day.
Rumpa-dee-poo-day.
Rumpa-dee-poo-day.
Rumpa-dee-poo-day.
Rumpa-dee-poo-day.
Rumpa-dee-poo-day.
Rumpa-dee-poo-day. Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay.
Okay.
Okay.
Okay.
Okay.
Okay.
Okay.
Okay.
Okay.
Okay.
Okay.
Okay.
Okay.
Okay.
Okay.
Okay.
Okay.
Okay.
Okay.
Okay.
Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay. I Thank you.
