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Market Talk: The bottom is in. How to prepare for alt season
Recorded: Sept. 23, 2025 Duration: 1:09:28Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent discussion, crypto enthusiasts highlighted significant trends and growth opportunities in the market, particularly focusing on the S&P 500's performance, the successful launch of the Aster token, and the potential for Bitcoin to break out in Q4. The conversation emphasized the importance of community engagement and the evolving narratives surrounding stablecoins and meme tokens, indicating a vibrant and optimistic outlook for the crypto space.
Full Transcription
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I'm sorry. hey what's going on guys welcome back to market talk you're gonna have to uh excuse me guys that's
a miss today's show i wasn't feeling the best but uh here we are back in
the markets uh to start off the week the s&p hits 6700 btc back at uh lower time frame range lows
at 110 111k uh the russell has gone absolutely ballistic and uh i'm pretty excited for Q4 galaxy digital also on the verge of
going into price discovery and truthfully it's honestly insane what's
been going on with this aster token that we had mentioned on the show on Friday
I think it's up like almost 200 when we were discussing
it um pretty sure it was trading at like 60 cents 65 cents right around there when we were yapping
about it on friday and uh now everyone's talking about it everyone's been talking about a short-term top, even though CZ is basically the king of crypto.
Really, over the last couple of days,
the only thing that's been trending has been Aster, STBL,
which honestly looks very interesting to me.
Might get a position on that one.
I think it could offer a catch-up trade.
You're talking about
Exposure tether in a way and
The stable coin narrative which I mean I guess aster is a bet on that as well. They also have their own
Their own Stable coin called the USDF, which is essentially Binance's stablecoin. So they're basically
coming out with the lunas of this cycle. And FDV, honestly, I know it's a thing, but you're
talking about the king of crypto here. And BNB is trading at like an FDV of 200 bill. And whenever we talk about crypto, this entire cycle,
if you haven't rotated any of your beta into majors after like two months,
you've essentially been rinsed, right?
You take a look at some of the top memes right that used to that used to trend
they've been perpetually underperforming over the last 18 months and this entire cycle and we're
going on almost three years now guys this entire cycle if you haven't been rotating into soul
or bitcoin um then you've essentially been bleeding perpetually for a significant period of time.
The upside of that, the upside to all this like somber kind of news would be the end of this hawkish environment that the Fed has been giving.
And I mean, dude, Nvidia has just been chatting over and over and over
again you look at stocks and price discovery and crypto is back at lower time frame range lows
and we've seen this kind of set up so many times where stocks outperform crypto and all of a sudden there's a flip that switched and a lot of dormant liquidity goes
back into majors and into altcoins but at this point it's probably going to be later on into
q4 at least that's something um that i've expected i i thought that the second half of september was
going to be extremely bullish um i was wrong on the market, but I was
right on the tickers, at least the tickers that I'm exposed to, which I've yapped about on the
show over and over and over again, have given clear thesis about. And I think that's also
happened with the equity markets. Whenever the indices would underperform, you'd see NVIDIA continue to outperform along with a few other tickers as well.
Rivian stock has also been doing quite well.
And gosh, it really just seems like the equity market is going to continue to have some opportunities for the remainder of the Trump administration.
So I'll probably take a dabble in equities, probably actually learn how to trade options and all that stuff,
or trade on leverage, or trade on low leverage.
Because I tell you what, I'm sorry if I'm sniffling here, guys.
I tell you what, the equity markets, I think,
are going to shock people over the next two to three years
with even more upside opportunities.
I even think we'll probably see hood go to like a trillion dollars,
to be honest.
And I think a lot of people are probably going to start to trade gold on leverage, silver on leverage.
And I'm talking retail here because over the last few months, I think there's actually been more onboarding for retail to the equity markets more so than crypto.
been more onboarding for retail to the equity markets more so than crypto and i i i i think
it would be wise to pay attention to equities and see some new opportunities there
and not just crypto but as far as crypto i think um paying attention to this like stable coin
narrative that's going on with stable um and also with aster
i think those would be some pretty good opportunities and pump fun revenue is a bit down so
um perhaps now is a good time to allocate towards it if you haven't uh as they are like the number
one gauge for all things on chain like if you're bullish on chain anything then um pump pump the
pump token is like something you can aggressively size into and the invalidation for pump is pretty
simple if pump goes to zero then on chain dies and then we wait like a year. It's that simple. It's a bet on the prosperity or doom
of how the market is right now.
Your token, your specific token,
that's not a major,
is fully dependent on pump token doing well.
At least that's my thesis,
and I'm happy to be wrong on that.
I've been wrong in the past, and I own up to that, and I'm saying it right now.
I admit that I was wrong for the second half of September,
but the grace of being wrong is your actual positioning in that,
which in this case would be allocation to Aster and to Pump.
in this case would be allocation to Aster and to Pump.
And to be honest, I'm kind of shocked at how insane the performance has been on this thing.
And I'm not sure how much juice is left on it outside of what CZ has,
which is like tens of billions of dollars.
And I remember mentioning this on a Fridayiday but sometimes there's a strange thing
that happens and donnie correct me if i'm wrong but sometimes when you have like more buyers and
sellers there's a there's a solid chance that the price the price might go up and that anyone who buy would be in the green and not in the red is my assumption.
But I could be wrong on that.
I'm still not entirely.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
Enough trolling, bro.
Enough trolling.
Speaking of troll, though, trolls getting listed on Coinbase, which is honestly like, that's insane, man.
They're starting to list um they're starting to list memes
again um dude and i i still think that like q4 is set up to be mania it's just for whatever reason
at some point in q3 or early q4 sometimes it's in q3 sometimes it's an early q4 on chain just like dies for a bit happened last
year um happened the year before that there's kind of like a little pause um i remember going
out of that fomc it was like it was kind of dead on chain for a few days and then the first week
of october we started to see lock-in, Sigma, all that stuff going
crazy.
And then SPX started that next leg up to a billion.
So history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
I'm hoping Troll goes into price discovery because it didn't really do much when Pump
was going absolutely ballistic.
Maybe it's like a lot of those early maybe it's like
actual more sellers than buyers uh but i could be wrong right because if more people sell then
the price goes down uh but anyways i'm gonna go ahead and uh start yapping with donnie here
guys before we get started before we get started we'll probably run the show for like 45 minutes to an hour.
Something like that.
45 minutes to an hour, guys.
I think that's a good time frame to do the show for today.
And we'll pick up the rest of the show for all the things that we want to yap about probably for tomorrow but guys before we officially get started guys before we officially
get started and yap on everything price action everything dubious speculation yes and go ahead
and show some love to the space you might be asking what's the best way to show some love
to the space well i've got the answers i've got the answers to questions that people don't even know how to ask.
So what you want to do first is click the spaces tab. After you guys do that,
smash that link that says x.com slash i slash spaces. Hit up that like button. Hit up that
read feed button. There's almost 300 of you in here to get the show started. So immediate good
turnout just within the first few minutes of the show, which is something
that I love to see.
I want to thank you guys first and foremost for always showing up and for being a consistent
listener or viewer of Market Talk.
It truly means the world to me, especially with the amount of shows that are usually
hosted at this time by some much larger accounts so i want to thank
you guys personally for uh showing all your love and support for smashing up the like button hitting
that repost button guys thank you thank you thank you spaces are recorded and uh i actually started
right on time i usually start between like 4 30 p p.m. EST to like 5.
I'm typically like 5 minutes late.
And that's mostly done on purpose.
But today I actually started right on time, right at 4.45 p.m. EST.
So, Donnie, I'm going to pass it on over to you, bro.
The setup, once again, has presented us with a massive bear trap this is perhaps the biggest bear trap that i've ever seen maybe in the history of bear traps maybe ever so
man feed me some bullish hopium bro what's on the what's on the what's on the playbook today because i hear beset is about
to threaten someone to punch them in the eye and we're now once again in a sentiment perspective
of why am i trading crypto i'm in the wrong market i'm going to go ahead and trade stocks
and whenever we see that sentiment happen, and I understand sentiment has its time
in place, but it does have its time in place. That's the point here. But whenever we see these
extremities in sentiment where people yap about how stocks are doing better than crypto within
a week or two, it's the complete opposite of that. And then stocks are now looked at again as a boomer market.
So I hope we can start off from there, man.
Great to have you on the show again, bro.
If you're speaking, I'm not able to hear you, by the way.
Yeah, I can't hear you by the way yeah I can't hear you man I can't hear you at all bro
if you're talking right now
is anyone able to hear Donnie guys
yeah I can't hear you man hold on Is anyone able to hear Donnie, guys?
Yeah, I can't hear you, man.
Hold on.
Drop his co-host, and I'll bring you an invite to speak.
Yeah, I still can't hear, man. Are you doing it off of your phone or desktop?
If it's from desktop, then it's, like, cooked, I think.
Yeah, yeah, you're going to have to do it from the phone, man.
Yeah, it'd have to be from the telephone.
Let's give it like a few moments, guys.
We'll give it a few moments.
In the meantime, if any of you guys want to come up and chat,
you guys can hit that request button.
Anyone up here in the audience, you guys can come on up.
All right, Donnie, bro, what's going on, man?
Yo, can you hear me now?
Yeah, dude, it seems like they wanted to cancel the playbook like a Stephen Hawking book, bro.
I have no idea why it wasn't working on my PC.
That's how I usually do it.
No clue.
So, yeah, I guess I'll just use my phone like this if it's all clear.
Do you know who Stephen King is, bro?
Nah.
So he's like some weird horror book writer.
He writes horror books,
and he made some pretty disastrous comments with Charlie Kirk,
and then all of his books got sent to Kingdom Come.
Oh, for him?
Yeah, yeah.
Every bookstore that he had to deal with just took his books off the shelf, man.
Dude, I really think this STBL thing is gonna go absolutely insane man wow
what is that oh this is so annoying off the phone because i can't like how do i share stuff
uh just as usual right yeah yeah so stable is basically a project from uh what's the ticker
project from uh what's the ticker stbl okay oh it's on pancake yeah yeah so basically the thesis
is that this is like direct exposure it's it's basically the co-founder from tether that's the
thesis bro like we can't rap about all these weird things bro bro, but it's like... That's all you need, bro.
Dude, look, here's the thing, right?
Every cycle, there's always one Korean project, one Chinese project, and one European project that gets crimes, right?
So, do I want to fade the Chinese?
That's what I ask myself, right? Do I want to fade the Chinese? That's what I ask myself, right?
Do I want to fade Changpeng Zhao?
Probably not.
Do I want to fade, what's this guy?
Paolo?
That's his name from Tether?
Paolo Andrino?
Whatever his name is?
I ask myself that, man.
But, yeah, that's the thesis.
Co-founder of Tether.
Bro, that's all you need sometimes, man.
Yeah.
Co-founder, bid the chart, and it's going to go up.
That was the whole thesis with Aster, literally.
It was like cz bid simple
Um, which I fucking missed which sucks
Oh man, that was a bad one. Um, sometimes being too busy with other stuff can really
Uh, you know lead to missed opportunities, but uh, we live to trade again
So yeah Yeah, and and and and and donnie don't forget
the saying right like we work out right don't try and get by or you'll get dealt with and trapped
exactly exactly i have to say i have to say that bro bro. Okay, let's...
Continue, bro.
Let's move on to BTC.
So basically, we came up to that...
Well, we were in this range, right, of 114.9K,
which was the key level that we crossed.
And bear in mind, we did actually cross that key level,
so there's still signal in that.
Just because we rolled at 117.4,
which was a very obvious zone,
which was kind of like the Bullen uh reject line and we rejected from it uh with some deviations above
we lost 114.9 so now we're literally either putting in a higher low or sweeping uh the 107
low i personally think it's going to be a higher low uh it could get super close um to that level
but again it doesn't really matter.
If you're viewing the whole setup that we have as a macro setup, which it is, around the Trump
administration, it's been incrementally confirming from the April lows. Nothing is changing that.
Equities, gold, and everything else is actually verifying that we are correct on the thesis.
verifying that we are correct on the thesis. Just because BTC is lagging behind those other assets
isn't somehow all of a sudden the cycle top or anything like that. We've validated that thesis
for the Trump administration is so that they can deliver these economic benefits, that pro-growth,
pro-market agenda that they have going into the midterms. And that's exactly what's happening. He's even wanting to get control of the Fed to continue bringing rates down.
You can argue if that's just for the media to feed attention into that, or if it's already
kind of pre-planned. I personally believe that all of these things are pre-planned. They're
literally lowering rates so they can fund the US government. Because, you know, long-end rates right now are
literally four and a half percent. I think it's costing them like close to a trillion
in debt refinancing. So, you know, that's a big issue. They need to bring those costs down
and they're going to do that. And they've clearly verified now, you know, with the excuse of the
unemployment side, that they are going to do that. And here come the rates going lower. So that's going to be, you know, multiple quarters of basically easing that are coming into these all time high prices. And I really don't see any other reason to be bearish around it. You know, people are predicting some sort of massive skidding of the economy.
People are predicting some sort of massive skidding of the economy.
Okay, sure, but we're still going into this expansion phase, which should lead to much
higher prices first before any of that.
Then we can kind of reassess that whole thesis, which I don't think is going to play out anyway.
I'm literally just looking at these macro charts, and they're all looking good to me.
Looking at the move index, it's literally been down only since the April lows.
That is literally the treasury market volatility index.
You can't have that thing flying higher or people get margin called and have to
sell a U S treasuries and things like that.
It's a really ugly picture.
That's the main thing that needs to be contained.
And it's been contained since,
those April lows.
I wish I could share this.
Wait,
maybe I can share it off my phone.
Excuse me two seconds.
I think I did it.
Ring, ring, the phone is ringing.
Post.
I think I shared it in the Nest.
It's just a very simple visual of what I'm saying here.
It's actually broken down. So to me, that signals further downside and it's headed towards, uh, basically the pre
or yeah, the pre COVID rally lows that we had, uh, in 2020 basically.
And it was the same sort of thing.
You had a BTC nuke, a gold nuke, stock market nuke.
And then from there you recovered the same sort of thing. You had a BTC nuke, gold nuke, stock market nuke. And then from there, you recovered.
The move index was contained.
And yields dropped even lower.
They were already kind of dropping lower into it.
They dropped even lower.
Right now, the 10-year yield is kind of, if you look at it technically on the chart,
that is a massive high timeframe top that's being put in.
I think it's going to roll over.
There's a lot of reasons why it should be going lower,
but let's just look at it from the technical perspective, very simple perspective.
That's a massive topping structure. It's going lower. The dollar is clearly going lower.
The move index is going lower. The Fed funds rate is going lower. And subsequently, we can see now
being verified by the price action on gold, SPX, and russell now that all of this is heading in the right direction for
risk to do well um and gold kind of just leads the liquidity side of things which seeing gold
go higher should be like ringing alarm bells in your head uh signaling to you that another batch
of global liquidity is coming and the way that i've been looking at it is basically like an
inverse uh to the dollar every time the dollar has had a leg lower, gold has expanded higher. You know, the dollar went below 100,
which is a structurally weak dollar. It ranged there for a while. Gold spent, you know, four
or five months ranging in that same environment and now actually front ran DXY by, you know,
breaking out of that range to the upside and leading it. It's done this off the April lows.
Sorry, not the April lows, but whatever those lows were from Q4 of 2024,
where gold kind of had a correction and BTC rallied.
It led global liquidity, gold led global liquidity off those lows.
And it's kind of doing the same thing right now.
So that's why I'm expecting the dollar to go lower and significantly lower towards the low 90s. And yeah, I just think gold is sniffing that out. And again,
that's another batch of global liquidity. And we saw what that batch of global liquidity did to BTC
from those lows. So we're at the range highs on BTC. Something like that is definitely going to
lead to a much stronger breakout. But as we do get into the later stages of this liquidity
cycle, you do tend to see rotations out of these higher assets or higher cap assets like gold and
stocks transition to Bitcoin. If you just look back, you know, at prior cycles, it's always been
this way. So it's good to see gold and the stock market actually rallying before Bitcoin because
they will exhaust. The liquidity cycle
will exhaust itself. And as that does start coming to an end, you will have these big rotations
coming out of those sectors into things like BTC and crypto. It's just further out on the risk curve,
making use of that environment while it's still open and green. And we haven't got into that
stage yet, clearly, because if you look at the Bitcoin over gold chart, we still haven't broken into price discovery since, you know, last cycle, basically.
And every liquidity cycle near the peak, we tend to gain a lot of ground over gold.
So I think it's not going to be any different this time around.
Let these charts fly.
fly. Just be patient with like the Bitcoin setup. And literally, when the button is pressed for the
Just be patient with like the Bitcoin setup.
breakout to occur, it's going to be super strong. Because again, all of these other assets are super
inflated, you're likely going to be prone to receiving some rotations out of them. And that's
where the big move comes from. But also, people are very quick to call like a cycle top on the
setup that we have, which in my view, it just can't happen that quickly. BTC is going to be, you know, two to three, maybe even four times larger than it was
last cycle to distribute like all of the supply needed to, you know, create a cycle top. It tends
to go up with each cycle as the actual asset itself is bigger. So like a 69K or 50 to 60K BTC
requires much less time to distribute supply
than it does for a token that's three to four X
bigger than that or BTC itself,
but just three times bigger in market cap size.
So I like to use the dot-com bubble
just as like a reference as to how long a topping structure can take,
basically how long things can stay frothy. And that topping structure, you know, in the 1990s,
transitioning to the 2000s, it lasted 791 days, right? That bubble that we had, and people are
calling for like an AI bubble and all this kind of stuff it can last a lot longer at those highs you know
continuously deviating the highs um way longer than it's lasted you know in prior cycles basically
and in those topping structures for btc specifically if you use the last cycle as any sort of
gauge as to how it plays out when we had that first topping structure in 21, that's where you had the massive old season where BTC was in deep price discovery levels, distributing and rotating that capital into the old coin market.
So if we're going to have a longer or a higher time frame topping structure at much deeper levels, clearly because gold is shooting up even higher, I think it's got even more legs to go higher because the dollar hasn't even dropped yet.
Same with the SPX. Then it's going to be a massive turnout right it's going to be a huge turnout and if you've got btc anywhere above 150 i'm thinking with the way that gold is
headed and the way that kind of the macro is playing out i think you could see above 200k
next year pretty easily so let's say you've got above 200k btc uh distributing around
those prices deviating those highs rotating into the rest of the market that's insane amounts of
liquidity to go into the old coin sector uh and you know that can last many months last cycle at
that first topping uh phase it lasted i think 90 or 100 or maybe longer than that days.
So let's say even 1.5 times longer than that,
you're going to have like a four or five month period of extreme altcoin appreciation.
So your eyes should just be set on that
rather than the local noise
because no matter how low these tokens go,
they will literally go to fresh new highs.
It's pretty hard to bear the volatility if you're new and you can't look past it.
But to me, it's very clear what's happening.
Just looking at these charts, it's just a bunch of leads and lags.
They're all confirming.
They're basically confirmed.
And we're just waiting for BTC to do the move.
And if you take any prior price action, looking at the Russell versus BTC. It's led the all-time high breakout
by weeks, sometimes a little bit longer than like three, four weeks. But it was inevitable
because people just rotate out the risk curve as the liquidity cycle comes to its later stages.
And I think it's going to be no different. But in terms of, I think another popular question people wanted to ask was,
when do you think the breakout will happen? Honestly, let's see if we hold this local level
on BTC right now. If we do actually sweep the lows, then I think it's going to take a little
bit longer, potentially going into even November. I don't think you're going to have like some
sort of crazy sharp v reversal if you do sweep that low more so you build an uptrend kind of
like how we built it um in q4 of 24 before you have the breakout but if we do actually reverse
right now and get above 117.4 let's say i don't know going into october I think you could have a through the all-time high.
Like now-ish and mid-November,
I would think. But in the end,
I just think it's inevitable.
Well,
I just connected.
Is everything all good? everything over no no no
everything on my end man
I sent you a discord message
though
but uh
I'll say this man
I'll
what's crazy is that
tether right now is actively like raising some money and
i think like this market has so many opportunities where like big boys are starting um
to come into some of these other assets and so like this alt season that we've been yapping on about um could actually
like take a lot longer to play out but certain plays will be there right in front of everyone
where they'll first fade it and then it'll become consensus kind of like hyper liquid
when we gave the thesis at like 12 to 15 um Yeah, I think it's just super early in like that phase of the cycle.
Like you just had ETH BTC, you know, bottom and BTC dominance top
along with sole BTC trying to break out of that range.
It has broken out.
So I think the next leg, if it is the breakout leg for BTC,
that's what's going to trigger it
because everything is already in the right direction. You give it one more shove and it's going to have
follow-through yeah from a seasonal perspective we are like in that period where dominance
trickles up in the short term and then like your higher cap betas pull back a bit and then you see like the
usual q4 run which has honestly gotten bigger um over the last like couple years 2023 we had a
sample where others btc ran like 70 percent from july of uh 23 all the way to early 24. Yeah.
And then we saw that breadth wave from October of 24 all the way to like early January.
And that was honestly crazy because everything ran.
Like you could just throw a dart.
Yeah. And so I'm wondering like with all this money that is being raised in the equity market
with something that's basically akin to the dot-com bubble and crypto companies IPO-ing, and you have the same guardrails being put in place now that were setting crypto in 2017 with silver gate and all that stuff and
i think that is a reason why like this alt season hasn't really happened yet because last cycle
you had these banks silver gate uh svb and all that stuff facilitate these large transactions
um for some of these firms to buy all coins and 3ac and all that stuff were active at that
time. We don't have that, but what we do have are like these other shadow companies that like CZ
and Paolo from Tether, they all own, right? So it's slowly starting to come back into the system at least i believe um okay never mind at least i believe that um
the leverage that we saw last cycle um slowly starting to come back but it's it's gonna take
a lot longer by the time it does come back i think it's gonna be so quick that many people
are gonna miss it but what's great is that at least there's volatility right at least there's something to do in this market and it's not like oh what ticker do we bid right so yeah um were you gonna say
something donnie um yeah i was just gonna say like again every time we've had sort of the super
exuberant period in the market it's been been when BTC trades super aggressively against gold.
And we just haven't had that yet.
The closest we got was Q4 of 24,
where it actually poked its head above the prior all-time high.
And that was pretty frothy.
But again, that got abruptly stopped at the Fed meeting on December 16th.
And since then, we've kind of just been waiting for everything else to play out,
which it has been playing out.
But again, gold SPX leading. I just think you have to be a little bit more patient
until those get super frothy and then yeah we'll see i think a pretty significant breakout on btc
and that should start everything because every single chart literally every single chart is
pointing in the right direction just one more push and I I see we have
our favorite on here in in the audience uncle Joe the the man of the hour we are
in the presence of of the unk of all unks what's up joe what's up joe how are you doing did you win
any cases lately man i'm uh i'm actually on fire i'm working on a brief while i was listening to
the the banter back and forth so um how's your book man you you had told me like last year that
i was uh a part of your book man man. A character inspired by you. Yes.
So when you go through the publishing route, right, the annoying thing is that each step
of the process from the agent to the editor, to the acquiring editor, to the publishing house,
all demands like revisions. And then there's revising back to what you were before.
And the whole process is is very
frustrating i think if for my second book i might just direct self-publish it because it's like
the the amount of time it takes to go through the traditional publishing process so why don't you
just launch it on solana so antiquated um it's very frustrating i mean i was sitting on waiting
for this acquiring editor to get back in like four months with this list of changes um it's very frustrating i mean i was sitting on waiting for this acquiring editor to
get back in like four months with this list of changes and it's like i'm so frustrated and i
actually started the second book which is the only thing that's kept me uh sort of motivated here but
uh but any event you guys don't want to hear about that um how are you doing joe why don't you launch
your book on solana uh i didn't know't you launch your book on Solana?
I didn't know you could launch a book on Solana, to be honest.
I'm ignorant in that respect.
Yeah, just like launch it on the blockchain.
Like launch it as like a PDF.
Launch it during a block and we can all read it.
I don't know if I want to do that, to be honest.
But it's interesting.
I'll look into it.
Thank you for cluing me into that idea.
I hadn't even thought about that.
Joe, so when are we going to top, man?
The IWM has, I mean, gone into a little bit of price discovery and been talking about that for like two years.
And anytime it gets a franchise, it just gets smacked back down.
What's your what's your view on the market, man?
I think generally my view is that a lot of people have exposed themselves through this whole year for a lack of understanding of developed markets, mature markets.
And I think the most interesting thing about Bitcoin, the Bitcoin market in particular, is you're going to torpedo and destroy over the next 6-12 months.
Actually, really, I could say 12, 24 months, this absurd juvenile
notion of a cycle theory. I think it's going to be completely wrecked with some of the developments.
I mean, the Morgan Stanley announcement today, there's a Fidelity announcement that's coming
probably a week and a half from now. I mean, when I talk with TradFi investors, okay,
When I talk with TradFi investors, okay, serious capital allocators,
they don't distill everything to nonsensical four-year cycles
because there's been three or four prior examples.
That's almost juvenile.
Like no S&P, no spooze investor is going to come and say.
Joe, not to interrupt you, but isn it crazy how um ansem tried calling cycle top and then cz
launches a coin out of nowhere and everyone can size into it and it's called aster isn't that
crazy man and it's like a direct exposure to stable coins being printed isn't that crazy joe uh yeah
i mean i don't i don't really know much about Aster. I'm sort of ignorant in that respect.
But I'll just tell you that, like, no serious investor looks and says, like, how do I position for the end of the cycle?
Like, that doesn't, I mean, I know that's worked for some people in crypto and Bitcoin because of prior market dynamics.
prior market dynamics.
But I'll just remind people, and I frequently,
I think if we've talked about this before, Wabi,
that like, you know, in 2021, people attribute that peak
with like the top of the cycle,
when reality, all risk assets across markets peaked in Q4.
The NASDAQ peaked, many of the high-flying ARC names peaked.
You had a macroeconomic event, which triggered a
risk-off environment basically for a year. And guess what? They all bottomed, coincident with
Janet Yellen talking about liquidity issues in the Treasury market in Q4 of 2022. And the Fed
finally getting caught up to the curve with those emergency rate hiking, you know, 100 basis point, 450 basis point hikes and successive meetings.
So that's all a long way of saying like, you know, cycles don't die of old age.
Economic cycles, business cycles, they don't die of old age.
There are business cycles where markets have run hot, you know, particularly broad equity indices for 10 years.
You know, we were in one, right,
pre-COVID, like basically a 10-year bull market. And for whatever reason, the crypto space in
general thinks like, oh, well, it has to have this 80% or 70% drawdown because it's always done that
in the past. And I've seen this in other markets. And a market is a market, right? They react to human psychology and greed and fear and everything.
And in an immature market, it functions differently than a mature market.
A mature market where you have a derivatives complex, where you have institutional flows,
where you have investors that are very patient and deliberate in how they deploy capital
rather than everybody and their grandma just going on Coinbase and opening up an account. It's just a really completely different way in which the market
trades. So for whatever reason, there's still this lingering idea. Your initial question to me is so
telling. When are we going to top? We're going to top when you stop asking me when we're going to
top. And to be clear,
none of this is to say the markets can't pull back and have a 20%, 30% downturn or they can't
consolidate for six months or a year like we've been consolidating basically since January on
Bitcoin. You poke your head up above 20,000, get it sold off within 24 hours. That's everything.
I view this entire year as one of consolidation,
which you will know is dissimilar from any other fourth year,
year following a habit.
So like we've already seen so many examples
of metrics being completely destroyed
about what is supposed to happen when altcoins
and altseasons are supposed to rally.
Yet people cling to these things like they're saying their prayers before bed,
like they're repeating rote sayings out of hope that they will come true.
I think if you're allocating capital that way, and that's how you're thinking about markets,
you're going to consistently have two things to expect. One, you'll be disappointed, and two, you will likely underperform just, you know,
buying and holding and DCA.
Joe, are you on chain right now, man?
On chain?
Yeah.
Like, are you buying alts and all that stuff um there's this uh company called
21 capital that's apparently going to be ipoing and uh there's a coin a part of that crew
called stbl and it could actually be some nice, like, positioning for that.
I wish Dorito was able to speak on these spaces, man.
Dorito's a Chad.
But, Joe, did you finally see Superman?
I did. I saw Superman.
Did you like it? Did you like my recommendation?
It was bad. I mean, I like the uplifting tone of it.
Yes, I told you, man.
I wish they would have done a few things differently.
What? You wish they could have done some things different?
What blasphemy is this, Joe?
Well, listen, the dog was very cute, right? I could get it.
Does it have a hat?
Using the dog was very cute, right? I can get it. Does it have a hat? Using the dog as like this...
But does the dog have a hat?
...ex machina that can solve every problem
was a little annoying.
Like, Superman, you know,
one of the strongest beings in the universe
is getting sucked into a black hole
and the dog has to save him.
You're spoiling the movie.
Sorry, I forgot.
Yeah.
But anyway, I want to just point you to a couple things
before i go because i got to work here all right um number one the morgan stanley uh his uh report
from mike wilson who's their chief equity um uh strategists i posted it today uh mike wilson he
he talks about this why the rolling recovery has begun.
And in his view, and I'm paraphrasing it, you should check it out.
It's about a 15-minute breakdown.
It's audio, and go look it on my Twitter.
He talks about how he believes that we're at the beginning of the economic cycle, not
the end.
And he points to some data, EPS expansion, rates.
So the reason I bring that up is that if that's true, right, if we are truly at the beginning
of a cycle, we could be years away from a peak in most of these markets.
Now, I don't get that sense at all from people in this space.
They all seem to have one foot out the door, one foot ready to jump ship and bail. And I just, I get this sense that, you know, that wasn't the dynamic
at all at any prior period where I felt like there was a true risk of a serious pullback.
In every prior allocation where I saw, you know, the equity market was peaking or, you know,
set for a pullback, I felt there was exuberance. I felt there was this optimism that we can never go down. And I don't get that sense at all. So I would check
that out. I would try to keep an open mind. And I would strongly recommend, if you're in any
investing space, to disabuse yourself of these notions of this is always how it works.
I mean, how many times have I read this meme
about every time the Fed cuts, market starts to collapse?
Like, that's just, number one, it's not true.
But number two, it's just kind of really simplistic thinking
that really doesn't help you.
Matt, what's going on, man?
Hey, what's going on? Hey, guys.
Well, I guess the summer is officially over.
It's a shame.
I wish it would never end.
But the exciting part...
You've been on vacation for like six months, Matt.
Well, I mean, I wish we all could you know
that's exactly why bbc hasn't like officially broken out man since january we had that one
deviation two deviations now and you guys from the unk cycle of 2013, keep selling.
I think it's similar to what Joe was talking about.
These things, they tend to repeat.
We notice patterns and we think that it just has to keep on repeating forever, perpetually
into the future. But none of that is set in stone. None of that is true. I think it's
just been as simple as realizing that fundamentally our U.S. labor, our jobs market is still solid.
You had the Fed literally tell you to your face that they can't decide if they want to cut by 75 basis points,
100 basis points, maybe even more if this administration gets more of their way
and squeeze an extra vote or two onto that Fed board.
Next week, we're going to have another labor report. And if it's not good enough,
lock those Fed cuts into stone. If it's really good, everyone's going to bid up the market
anyway, because, oh my gosh, apparently jobs weren't going to crater and more jobs equals more money equals more
software being sold. Businesses can expand, you know, the whole thing. So yeah, it was, it was,
it was a fun summer to just enjoy and kick up our heels and wait for consolidation and enjoy some time away.
But now's the time actually to lock in and pay attention.
I'm very bullish throughout the rest of fall into the winter.
I don't see any reason why anyone should be calling tops or looking for the exits.
I mean, if you want to take some risk off the table
and lock profit into Bitcoin, I'll never say no.
I think that's smart.
But everyone keeps talking about Bitcoin already topped
or Bitcoin looks toppy or this is close to done.
Looking at what?
Where?
Just because the triangles or just because 1,500 days have passed since past cycles, like X amount of days has passed, and then automatically you must sell
because we are doomed to just repeat history forever the rest of our lives? Like, no. So, yeah, I think that look at what gold's doing.
Look at what S&P 500 are doing.
Look at what NASDAQ's doing.
Look at the Russell finally breaking out.
And unless you're really trying to tell this space,
unless you're really trying to tell us
that Bitcoin has decoupled from the rest of the world
and from the rest of assets?
Unless you're trying to literally tell us
that everything else is in a bull market,
but Bitcoin is just not going to participate,
how can you not be bullish?
Yeah, it's like that term I always say, Matt.
You work out, right?
Every day.
So you know that term I like to use? know triceps and biceps right and deltoids
you know what I'm about to say right do it look so so look look look here's the thing if anyone
works out here and you're trying to do some funny business here's what I always tell people don't
try and get by or you'll get dealt with and trapped.
You always want to be on guard for someone to peck at you, right?
You always want to stay quadded up.
Quadded up.
What's hilarious is I know I just said, oh, you know,
can't just assume that history is going to repeat over and over and over and yet i i do
i do recognize if we top out i know i do but but hold on hold on let me just stable
end up being my last trades that would suck yeah honestly that would honestly suck um i don't think
you have to worry it really i don't. But I do recognize that literally this time
last year, we were trying to talk. It was you, it was me, it was Donnie. We were trying to talk
people off of a ledge. They wanted to sell it all. They wanted to dump all their Bitcoin at 55k.
It was exactly one year ago. Exactly one year ago. And I just shared up in the nest
as kind of an inside joke. But it's the exact same setup as one year ago. And I just shared up in the nest as kind of an inside joke.
But it's the exact same setup as one year ago.
We've got a bull flag.
We've got an inverse head and shoulders.
And if you don't like lines, if you don't like drawings, if you don't like TA, that's fine.
Just look at what gold's already doing.
Look at what NASDAQ's already doing.
Look at what the S&P 500's already doing.
Look at what the Russell's already doing.
Look at the dollar that's plunging. Everything else tells you that Bitcoin is going to go up. But for the TA enthusiasts, you have it right there on the
chart too. And we had this exact same thing last year. Everyone wanted to sell 55K. Those people
coped all the way to over 100. And now this year, here we go again. Bitcoin is literally
in a 10% correction off of its all-time high. 10%. That's why I've been on vacation. That's
why I've been taking time off. I don't get out of bed for negative 10%. Who cares about negative 10%? This is not
some catastrophe. So if for some reason you've been sidelined all the way up to this point,
this is one of the cleanest opportunities to buy and ride the rest of the fall and winter.
I don't know when we break out, but how much confirmation do you need until you realize, crap, we did.
It just, we did.
I was sidelined.
We did.
And I was, you know, I really, really wanted to buy 109 and it never cracked below 110.
Like, what do you want from us?
Everyone wants to know, okay, I missed that last time, but tell me when the really good
buying opportunity is next time.
Well, guess what? It's today.
Well, I think this is where the stream comes to a halt.
I want to save some juice for tomorrow, especially if Donnie can't share anything through his laptop or his desktop.
So I'm going to can it here, guys.
I want to thank Matt, Donnie, and Joe for coming up on the show.
It's such a beautiful thing, by the way, man.
Sometimes I miss a stream, and then by the next stream, all of you guys show up collectively.
All you hundreds of people immediately show up.
I remember when I got sick, like sick, sick earlier this year in May slash June, like late May, early June.
And I had missed like three streams in a row.
And then I remember coming back and I think we had a space of like almost a thousand people.
So, man, this community that has been formed here has been nothing short of great.
So shout out to you guys.
You guys make all of this possible.
And I want to thank you from the bottom of my heart for all the love and support that you show us here at BB and Donnie, Matt and Joe.
Thank you so much for coming on and shout out to you guys in the audience,
whether you're listening now here live or listening to the recording.
I want to thank you all so, so much.
And just in case some of you guys are here for the first time and somehow the algorithm brought
you on to the show we're because bitcoin and we produce multiple live streams for you guys
throughout the week the show that you're listening to right now is called market talk hosted by me
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everybody up here on the panel who spoke and we'll see you all tomorrow at the same time god bless each and every single
one of you and i want to give a shout out to my lord and savior jesus christ for allowing me
another day to talk markets with you all so take care guys i'll see you on the next one peace out
bye bye have a good rest of your tuesday or Wednesday, depending on where you are in the world.
So, peace out, guys. Thank you.アーメンご視聴ありがとうございました
